GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for KHANUN-17
in Chinafrom 12 Oct 2017 06:00 UTC to 13 Oct 2017 00:00 UTC
Storm surge for tropical cyclone KHANUN-17
Beta
alertimage

Red alert for storm surge impact in China

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down.

This report is for advisory number 4 of tropical cyclone KHANUN-17 issued at 13 Oct 2017 0:00:00 (GDACS Event ID 1000411).

Summary

Current impact estimate:

  • Population affected by cyclone-strength winds (>120km/h): 5.1 million
  • Saffir-Simpson Category: Category 2
  • Maximum sustained wind speed: 167 km/h
  • The maximum Storm surge height is  1.7m in Wai-lo, China. This height is estimated for 16 Oct 2017 00:00:00.

Evolution

Previous calculations: see calculation for advisory number 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Show forecast grid

Storm surge

View animation and affected locations in an interactive map: open

Storm surge maximum height
Storm surge maximum height (Source: JRC)
Storm surge animation
Storm surge animation (Source: JRC)

Affected locations

Date Name Country Storm surge height (m)
16 Oct 2017 00:00:00 Wai-lo China  1.7m
15 Oct 2017 22:00:00 Taiping China  1.7m
15 Oct 2017 22:00:00 Xianmai China  1.7m
15 Oct 2017 22:00:00 Longshe China  1.6m
15 Oct 2017 22:00:00 Dongli China  1.6m
15 Oct 2017 21:00:00 Tung-li China  1.5m
15 Oct 2017 20:00:00 Jinhe China  1.5m
15 Oct 2017 22:00:00 Dongshan China  1.5m
15 Oct 2017 21:00:00 Huangpo China  1.4m
15 Oct 2017 21:00:00 Chiu-wu-ch'uan China  1.4m
15 Oct 2017 21:00:00 Dongjian China  1.4m
15 Oct 2017 21:00:00 Badongxu China  1.3m
15 Oct 2017 20:00:00 Baisha China  1.3m
15 Oct 2017 20:00:00 Houhu China  1.3m
Locations affected by Storm surge (15 of 558)
Calculation based on advisory number 4 of 13 Oct 2017 00:00:00.
(Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

See full locations list (RSS)

More information

The atmospheric forcing included in the storm surge model are the pressure drop and the wind-water friction. The effects of the short waves induced by the wind (wave setup) and the precipitations are not yet implemented in the model. The model has been validated mainly in areas of shallow water (Caribbean, Bay of Bengal). Results in other basins may be inaccurate.

For a full list of available products related to this event, please refer to the GDACS Resources page.