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Red Tropical Cyclone alert in China for USAGI-13 from 17/09/2013 00:00 UTC to 22/09/2013 12:00 UTC
Storm surge for tropical cyclone USAGI-13
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Orange alert for storm surge impact in China

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down.

This report is for advisory number 22 of tropical cyclone USAGI-13 issued at 22 Sep 2013 0:00:00 (GDACS Event ID 40084). However, the calculation for advisory number is not completed. Therefore, the latest available calculation is shown. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation.

Summary

Current impact estimate:

  • Population affected by cyclone-strength winds (>120km/h): 38.1 million
  • Saffir-Simpson Category: Category 5
  • Maximum sustained wind speed: 259 km/h
  • The maximum Storm surge height is  2.0m in Magong, China. This height is estimated for 22 Sep 2013 15:00:00.

Evolution

Previous calculations: see calculation for advisory number 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Show forecast grid

Observation

eSurge eSurge was activated for this event: Advanced storm surge products (eSurge)

Storm surge

View animation and affected locations in an interactive map: open

Storm surge maximum height
Storm surge maximum height (Source: JRC)
Storm surge animation
Storm surge animation (Source: JRC)

Affected locations

Date Name Country Storm surge height (m)
22 Sep 2013 15:00:00 Magong China  2.0m
22 Sep 2013 09:00:00 Shantou China  2.0m
22 Sep 2013 09:00:00 Dahao China  2.0m
22 Sep 2013 09:00:00 Aotou China  2.0m
22 Sep 2013 09:00:00 Siwei China  2.0m
22 Sep 2013 09:00:00 Donghong China  2.0m
22 Sep 2013 09:00:00 Ch'ao-yang-hsien China  2.0m
22 Sep 2013 08:00:00 Daitou China  1.8m
22 Sep 2013 11:00:00 Jiazi China  1.7m
22 Sep 2013 11:00:00 Hudong China  1.7m
22 Sep 2013 09:00:00 Haimen China  1.6m
22 Sep 2013 09:00:00 Jinghai China  1.6m
22 Sep 2013 14:00:00 Jizhongtuo China  1.6m
22 Sep 2013 14:00:00 Shanwei China  1.6m
Locations affected by Storm surge (15 of 334)
Calculation based on advisory number 23 of 22 Sep 2013 06:00:00.
(Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

See full locations list (RSS)

More information

The atmospheric forcing included in the storm surge model are the pressure drop and the wind-water friction. The effects of the short waves induced by the wind (wave setup) and the precipitations are not yet implemented in the model. The model has been validated mainly in areas of shallow water (Caribbean, Bay of Bengal). Results in other basins may be inaccurate.

For a full list of available products related to this event, please refer to the GDACS Resources page.