Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for BERGUITTA-18
in Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius
alertimage

Green alert for storm surge impact based on ECMWF source

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down.

This report is for advisory number 31 of tropical cyclone BERGUITTA-18 issued at 20 Jan 2018 6:00:00 (GDACS Event ID 1000432). However, the calculation for advisory number is not completed. Therefore, the latest available calculation is shown. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation.

Summary

Population affected by cyclone-strength winds (>120km/h):No People
Saffir-Simpson Category: Tropical storm
Maximum sustained wind speed: 97 Km/h
he maximum Storm surge height is:  0.9m in Chiloane, Mozambique.

Storm surge

View animation and affected locations in an interactive map: open

Storm surge maximum height
Storm surge maximum height (Source: JRC)
Max windspeed
Max windspeed (Source: ECMWF)

Evolution

Legend
people affected <=10000
people affected >10000 and <100000
people affected >100000


Calculation Alert color Date (UTC) Wind speed Population affected
winds(>120km/h)
TS CAT. 1 CAT. 2 CAT. 3 CAT. 4 CAT. 5 Countries
1
GREEN
20180112.00 75 km/h (47 mph) No people
Mauritius
2
GREEN
20180112.12 100 km/h (62 mph) No people
3
GREEN
20180113.00 64 km/h (40 mph) No people
Mauritius
4
GREEN
20180113.12 62 km/h (39 mph) No people
Mauritius
5
GREEN
20180114.00 69 km/h (43 mph) No people
Mauritius
6
GREEN
20180114.12 70 km/h (43 mph) No people
Mauritius
7
GREEN
20180115.00 100 km/h (62 mph) No people
Mauritius, Reunion
8
ORANGE
20180115.12 135 km/h (84 mph) 740 thousand
Mozambique, Mauritius, Reunion
9
GREEN
20180116.00 119 km/h (74 mph) No people
Mozambique, Mauritius, Reunion
10
ORANGE
20180116.12 133 km/h (83 mph) 200 thousand
Mozambique, Mauritius, Reunion
11
GREEN
20180117.00 92 km/h (57 mph) No people
Mauritius, Reunion
12
GREEN
20180117.12 83 km/h (51 mph) No people
Mauritius
13
GREEN
20180118.00 75 km/h (47 mph) No people
Mauritius
14
GREEN
20180118.12 62 km/h (39 mph) No people
Reunion
15
GREEN
20180119.00 103 km/h (64 mph) No people
16
GREEN
20180119.12 100 km/h (62 mph) No people
17
GREEN
20180120.00 67 km/h (42 mph) No people
Madagascar
18
GREEN
20180120.12 103 km/h (64 mph) No people
19
GREEN
20180121.00 97 km/h (60 mph) No people

Affected locations

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
23 Jan 2018 09:00 Chiloane Mozambique  0.9
23 Jan 2018 09:15 Damiao Mozambique  0.9
20 Jan 2018 07:30 Marofototra Madagascar  0.9
20 Jan 2018 07:30 Voalavo Madagascar  0.9
20 Jan 2018 07:30 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.9
23 Jan 2018 09:15 Nhangau Mozambique  0.9
23 Jan 2018 20:30 Ankaranakatra Madagascar  0.8
23 Jan 2018 20:30 Marovoha Madagascar  0.8
23 Jan 2018 20:30 Ambalatsingy Madagascar  0.8
23 Jan 2018 20:30 Antonibe Madagascar  0.8
23 Jan 2018 20:30 Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.8
23 Jan 2018 20:30 Antantiloky Madagascar  0.8
23 Jan 2018 20:30 Anjiajia Madagascar  0.8
23 Jan 2018 20:30 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.8
Locations affected by Storm surge (15 of 816)
Calculation based on advisory number of 21 Jan 2018 00:00.
(Simulation using minute resolution)

See full locations list (RSS)

More information

The atmospheric forcing included in the storm surge model are the pressure drop and the wind-water friction. The effects of the short waves induced by the wind (wave setup) and the precipitations are not yet implemented in the model.

For a full list of available products related to this event, please refer to the GDACS Resources page.