Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for BERGUITTA-18
in Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius
alertimage

Green alert for storm surge impact based on GFS source

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down.

This report is for advisory number 31 of tropical cyclone BERGUITTA-18 issued at 20 Jan 2018 6:00:00 (GDACS Event ID 1000432). However, the calculation for advisory number is not completed. Therefore, the latest available calculation is shown. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation.

Summary

Population affected by cyclone-strength winds (>120km/h):No People
Saffir-Simpson Category: Tropical storm
Maximum sustained wind speed: 110 Km/h
Maximum Storm surge height is:  0.7m in Ankaranakatra, Madagascar.

Storm surge

View animation and affected locations in an interactive map: open

Storm surge maximum height
Storm surge maximum height (Source: JRC)
Max windspeed
Max windspeed (Source: GFS)

Evolution

Legend
people affected <=10000
people affected >10000 and <100000
people affected >100000


Calculation Alert color Date (UTC) Wind speed Population affected
winds(>120km/h)
TS CAT. 1 CAT. 2 CAT. 3 CAT. 4 CAT. 5 Countries
1
GREEN
20180112.18 78 km/h (49 mph) No people
Mauritius
2
GREEN
20180113.00 76 km/h (47 mph) No people
Mauritius
3
GREEN
20180113.06 73 km/h (45 mph) No people
Mauritius
4
GREEN
20180113.12 72 km/h (44 mph) No people
Mauritius
5
GREEN
20180113.18 75 km/h (46 mph) No people
Mauritius
6
GREEN
20180114.00 75 km/h (46 mph) No people
Mauritius
7
GREEN
20180114.06 108 km/h (67 mph) No people
Mauritius
8
ORANGE
20180114.12 140 km/h (87 mph) 120 thousand
Mauritius
9
ORANGE
20180114.18 158 km/h (98 mph) 840 thousand
Mauritius, Reunion
10
ORANGE
20180115.00 154 km/h (95 mph) 540 thousand
Mauritius, Reunion
11
ORANGE
20180115.06 153 km/h (95 mph) 1.6 million
Mauritius, Reunion
12
ORANGE
20180115.12 168 km/h (104 mph) 1.1 million
Mauritius, Reunion
13
ORANGE
20180115.18 146 km/h (90 mph) 1 million
Mauritius, Reunion
14
ORANGE
20180116.00 134 km/h (83 mph) 660 thousand
Mauritius, Reunion
15
GREEN
20180116.06 115 km/h (71 mph) No people
Mauritius, Reunion
16
GREEN
20180116.12 118 km/h (73 mph) No people
Mauritius, Reunion
17
GREEN
20180116.18 116 km/h (72 mph) No people
Mauritius, Reunion
18
GREEN
20180117.00 118 km/h (73 mph) No people
Mauritius, Reunion
19
GREEN
20180117.06 72 km/h (44 mph) No people
Mauritius, Reunion
20
GREEN
20180117.12 129 km/h (80 mph) No people affected
21
GREEN
20180117.18 78 km/h (48 mph) No people
Mauritius, Reunion
22
GREEN
20180118.00 85 km/h (53 mph) No people
Mauritius, Reunion
23
GREEN
20180118.06 75 km/h (46 mph) No people
Mauritius, Reunion
24
GREEN
20180118.12 68 km/h (42 mph) No people
Mauritius, Reunion
25
GREEN
20180118.18 114 km/h (71 mph) No people
26
GREEN
20180119.00 114 km/h (70 mph) No people
27
GREEN
20180119.06 117 km/h (73 mph) No people
28
GREEN
20180119.12 114 km/h (71 mph) No people
29
GREEN
20180119.18 114 km/h (71 mph) No people
30
GREEN
20180120.00 117 km/h (72 mph) No people
31
GREEN
20180120.06 110 km/h (68 mph) No people
32
GREEN
20180120.12 109 km/h (67 mph) No people
33
GREEN
20180120.18 110 km/h (68 mph) No people
34
GREEN
20180121.00 112 km/h (69 mph) No people
35
GREEN
20180121.06 110 km/h (68 mph) No people
36
GREEN
20180121.12 107 km/h (66 mph) No people
37
GREEN
20180121.18 110 km/h (68 mph) No people

Affected locations

Date Name Country Alert Storm surge height (m)
23 Jan 2018 20:00:00 Ankaranakatra Madagascar  0.7m
23 Jan 2018 20:00:00 Marovoha Madagascar  0.7m
23 Jan 2018 20:00:00 Ambalatsingy Madagascar  0.7m
23 Jan 2018 20:00:00 Antonibe Madagascar  0.7m
23 Jan 2018 20:00:00 Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.7m
23 Jan 2018 20:00:00 Antantiloky Madagascar  0.7m
23 Jan 2018 20:00:00 Anjiajia Madagascar  0.7m
23 Jan 2018 20:00:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.7m
23 Jan 2018 20:00:00 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.7m
23 Jan 2018 20:00:00 Ampitily Madagascar  0.7m
23 Jan 2018 20:00:00 Singalana Madagascar  0.7m
23 Jan 2018 20:00:00 Antaribao Madagascar  0.7m
21 Jan 2018 20:15:00 Damiao Mozambique  0.7m
21 Jan 2018 20:15:00 Nhangau Mozambique  0.7m
Locations affected by Storm surge (15 of 816)
Calculation based on advisory number of 21 Jan 2018 18:00.
(Simulation using minute resolution)

See full locations list (RSS)

More information

The atmospheric forcing included in the storm surge model are the pressure drop and the wind-water friction. The effects of the short waves induced by the wind (wave setup) and the precipitations are not yet implemented in the model.

For a full list of available products related to this event, please refer to the GDACS Resources page.