Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for BERGUITTA-18
in Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down.

This report is for advisory number 31 of tropical cyclone BERGUITTA-18 issued at 20 Jan 2018 6:00:00 (GDACS Event ID 1000432). However, the calculation for advisory number is not completed. Therefore, the latest available calculation is shown. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation.


The maximum Storm surge height is  0.7m in Voloina, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 15 Jan 2018 17:00 UTC .

Storm surge

View animation and affected locations in an interactive map: open

Storm surge maximum height
Storm surge maximum height (Source: JRC)
Max windspeed
Max windspeed (Source: ECMWF)


people affected <=10000
people affected >10000 and <100000
people affected >100000

Affected locations

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
15 Jan 2018 17:00 Voloina Madagascar  0.7
15 Jan 2018 17:00 Manambia Madagascar  0.7
15 Jan 2018 17:00 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.7
15 Jan 2018 17:00 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.7
15 Jan 2018 17:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.7
15 Jan 2018 17:00 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.7
15 Jan 2018 17:00 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.7
15 Jan 2018 17:00 Benjana Madagascar  0.7
15 Jan 2018 15:00 Sadani Tanzania  0.6
15 Jan 2018 17:15 Rantabe Madagascar  0.6
15 Jan 2018 17:00 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.6
15 Jan 2018 17:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.6
15 Jan 2018 01:00 Marofototra Madagascar  0.6
15 Jan 2018 01:00 Voalavo Madagascar  0.6
Locations affected by Storm surge (15 of 786)
Calculation based on advisory number of 15 Jan 2018 00:00.
(Simulation using minute resolution)

See full locations list (RSS)

More information

The atmospheric forcing included in the storm surge model are the pressure drop and the wind-water friction. The effects of the short waves induced by the wind (wave setup) and the precipitations are not yet implemented in the model.

  • Interactive map: open

For a full list of available products related to this event, please refer to the GDACS Resources page.