Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for BERGUITTA-18
in Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius
alertimage

Green alert for storm surge impact based on HWRF source

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down.

This report is for advisory number 31 of tropical cyclone BERGUITTA-18 issued at 20 Jan 2018 6:00:00 (GDACS Event ID 1000432). However, the calculation for advisory number is not completed. Therefore, the latest available calculation is shown. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation.

Summary

Population affected by cyclone-strength winds (>120km/h):500 thousand
Saffir-Simpson Category: Category 2
Maximum sustained wind speed: 173 Km/h
he maximum Storm surge height is:  0.7m in Choisy, Mauritius.

Storm surge

View animation and affected locations in an interactive map: open

Storm surge maximum height
Storm surge maximum height (Source: JRC)
Max windspeed
Max windspeed (Source: ECMWF)

Evolution

Legend
people affected <=10000
people affected >10000 and <100000
people affected >100000


Calculation Alert color Date (UTC) Wind speed Population affected
winds(>120km/h)
TS CAT. 1 CAT. 2 CAT. 3 CAT. 4 CAT. 5 Countries
1
GREEN
20180112.18 67 km/h (41 mph) No people
Mauritius
2
GREEN
20180113.00 94 km/h (58 mph) No people
Mauritius
3
GREEN
20180113.06 89 km/h (55 mph) No people
Mauritius
4
GREEN
20180113.12 86 km/h (53 mph) No people
Mauritius
5
GREEN
20180113.18 74 km/h (46 mph) No people
Mauritius, Reunion
6
GREEN
20180114.00 82 km/h (51 mph) No people
Mauritius
7
GREEN
20180114.06 84 km/h (52 mph) No people
Comoros, Mauritius, Reunion
8
GREEN
20180114.12 91 km/h (56 mph) No people
Mauritius, Reunion
9
GREEN
20180114.18 103 km/h (64 mph) No people
Mauritius, Reunion
10
GREEN
20180115.00 98 km/h (61 mph) No people
Mauritius, Reunion
11
RED
20180115.06 194 km/h (120 mph) 940 thousand
Mauritius, Reunion
12
RED
20180115.12 181 km/h (112 mph) 530 thousand
Mauritius, Reunion
13
ORANGE
20180115.18 177 km/h (110 mph) 510 thousand
Mauritius, Reunion
14
ORANGE
20180116.00 173 km/h (107 mph) 500 thousand
Mauritius, Reunion
15
GREEN
20180116.06 120 km/h (75 mph) 4 thousand
Mauritius, Reunion
16
GREEN
20180116.12 142 km/h (88 mph) 80 thousand
Mauritius, Reunion
17
ORANGE
20180116.18 171 km/h (106 mph) 500 thousand
Mauritius, Reunion
18
RED
20180117.00 179 km/h (111 mph) 840 thousand
Mauritius, Reunion
19
GREEN
20180117.06 116 km/h (72 mph) No people
Mauritius, Reunion
20
GREEN
20180117.12 86 km/h (54 mph) No people
Mauritius, Reunion
21
GREEN
20180117.18 91 km/h (57 mph) No people
Mauritius, Reunion
22
GREEN
20180118.00 92 km/h (57 mph) No people
Mauritius, Reunion
23
GREEN
20180118.06 106 km/h (66 mph) No people
Mauritius, Reunion
24
GREEN
20180118.12 102 km/h (63 mph) No people
Mauritius, Reunion
25
GREEN
20180118.18 75 km/h (46 mph) No people
Reunion
26
GREEN
20180119.00 115 km/h (72 mph) No people
27
GREEN
20180119.06 112 km/h (69 mph) No people
28
GREEN
20180119.12 104 km/h (65 mph) No people
29
GREEN
20180119.18 105 km/h (65 mph) No people
30
GREEN
20180120.00 106 km/h (66 mph) No people
31
GREEN
20180120.06 109 km/h (68 mph) No people

Affected locations

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
18 Jan 2018 00:15 Choisy Mauritius  0.7
18 Jan 2018 00:15 Black River Mauritius  0.7
18 Jan 2018 00:15 Chemin Grenier Mauritius  0.7
18 Jan 2018 00:15 Souillac Mauritius  0.7
18 Jan 2018 00:00 Riche-en-Eau Mauritius  0.7
18 Jan 2018 00:00 Maheboug Mauritius  0.7
18 Jan 2018 00:00 Port Louis Mauritius  0.6
18 Jan 2018 00:00 Trou aux Biches Mauritius  0.6
17 Jan 2018 19:30 Saint-Antoine Mauritius  0.6
17 Jan 2018 19:30 Riviere du Rempart Mauritius  0.6
17 Jan 2018 19:30 Grande Reviere Sud Est Mauritius  0.6
17 Jan 2018 18:15 Sadani Tanzania  0.6
17 Jan 2018 18:00 Mkadini Tanzania  0.5
17 Jan 2018 18:15 Kigongoni Tanzania  0.5
Locations affected by Storm surge (15 of 796)
Calculation based on advisory number of 16 Jan 2018 00:00.
(Simulation using minute resolution)

See full locations list (RSS)

More information

The atmospheric forcing included in the storm surge model are the pressure drop and the wind-water friction. The effects of the short waves induced by the wind (wave setup) and the precipitations are not yet implemented in the model.

  • Interactive map: open

For a full list of available products related to this event, please refer to the GDACS Resources page.