Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CEBILE-18
Off-shore
alertimage

Green alert for storm surge impact based on HWRF source

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down.

This report is for advisory number 51 of tropical cyclone CEBILE-18 issued at 8 Feb 2018 12:00:00 (GDACS Event ID 1000433). However, the calculation for advisory number is not completed. Therefore, the latest available calculation is shown. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation.

Summary

Population affected by cyclone-strength winds (>120km/h):No People
Saffir-Simpson Category: Tropical storm
Maximum sustained wind speed: 89 Km/h
Maximum Storm surge height is:  0.4m in Point Marianne, British Indian Ocean Territory.

Storm surge

View animation and affected locations in an interactive map: open

Storm surge maximum height
Storm surge maximum height (Source: JRC)
Max windspeed
Max windspeed (Source: HWRF)

Evolution

Legend
people affected <=10000
people affected >10000 and <100000
people affected >100000


Calculation Alert color Date (UTC) Wind speed Population affected
winds(>120km/h)
TS CAT. 1 CAT. 2 CAT. 3 CAT. 4 CAT. 5 Countries
1
GREEN
20180202.00 226 km/h (140 mph) No people affected
2
GREEN
20180202.06 231 km/h (143 mph) No people affected
3
GREEN
20180202.12 217 km/h (135 mph) No people affected
4
GREEN
20180202.18 221 km/h (137 mph) No people affected
5
GREEN
20180203.00 193 km/h (120 mph) No people affected
6
GREEN
20180203.06 170 km/h (105 mph) No people affected
7
GREEN
20180204.18 173 km/h (107 mph) No people affected
8
GREEN
20180205.00 163 km/h (101 mph) No people affected
9
GREEN
20180205.06 143 km/h (89 mph) No people affected
10
GREEN
20180205.12 121 km/h (75 mph) No people affected
11
GREEN
20180205.18 115 km/h (71 mph) No people
12
GREEN
20180206.00 97 km/h (60 mph) No people
13
GREEN
20180206.06 110 km/h (68 mph) No people
14
GREEN
20180206.12 119 km/h (74 mph) No people
15
GREEN
20180206.18 81 km/h (50 mph) No people
16
GREEN
20180207.00 93 km/h (58 mph) No people
17
GREEN
20180207.06 85 km/h (52 mph) No people
18
GREEN
20180207.12 86 km/h (53 mph) No people
19
GREEN
20180207.18 81 km/h (50 mph) No people
20
GREEN
20180208.00 109 km/h (67 mph) No people
21
GREEN
20180208.06 73 km/h (45 mph) No people
22
GREEN
20180208.12 89 km/h (55 mph) No people

Affected locations

Date Name Country Alert Storm surge height (m)
01 Feb 2018 22:15:00 Point Marianne British Indian Ocean Territory  0.4m
01 Feb 2018 22:15:00 East Point Plantation British Indian Ocean Territory  0.4m
02 Feb 2018 16:30:00 La Roche Godon French Southern and Antarctic Lands  0.2m
Locations affected by Storm surge (15 of 3)
Calculation based on advisory number of 08 Feb 2018 12:00.
(Simulation using minute resolution)

See full locations list (RSS)

More information

The atmospheric forcing included in the storm surge model are the pressure drop and the wind-water friction. The effects of the short waves induced by the wind (wave setup) and the precipitations are not yet implemented in the model.

  • Interactive map: open

For a full list of available products related to this event, please refer to the GDACS Resources page.