Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FABIO-18
Off-shore
alertimage

Green alert for storm surge impact based on GFS source

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down.

This report is for advisory number 24 of tropical cyclone FABIO-18 issued at 6 Jul 2018 12:00:00 (GDACS Event ID 1000465). However, the calculation for advisory number is not completed. Therefore, the latest available calculation is shown. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation.

Summary

Population affected by cyclone-strength winds (>120km/h):No People
Saffir-Simpson Category: Tropical storm
Maximum sustained wind speed: 109 Km/h
Maximum Storm surge height is:  1.0m in El Golfo de Santa Clara, Mexico.

Storm surge

View animation and affected locations in an interactive map: open

Storm surge maximum height
Storm surge maximum height (Source: JRC)
Max windspeed
Max windspeed (Source: GFS)

Evolution

Legend
people affected <=10000
people affected >10000 and <100000
people affected >100000


Calculation Alert color Date (UTC) Wind speed Population affected
winds(>120km/h)
TS CAT. 1 CAT. 2 CAT. 3 CAT. 4 CAT. 5 Countries
1
GREEN
20180630.18 168 km/h (104 mph) No people affected
2
GREEN
20180701.00 158 km/h (98 mph) No people affected
3
GREEN
20180701.06 197 km/h (122 mph) No people affected
4
GREEN
20180701.12 210 km/h (130 mph) No people affected
5
GREEN
20180701.18 201 km/h (124 mph) No people affected
6
GREEN
20180702.00 170 km/h (105 mph) No people affected
7
GREEN
20180702.06 184 km/h (114 mph) No people affected
8
GREEN
20180702.12 63 km/h (39 mph) No people
Mexico
9
GREEN
20180702.18 155 km/h (96 mph) No people affected
10
GREEN
20180703.00 64 km/h (40 mph) No people
United States, Mexico
11
GREEN
20180703.06 64 km/h (40 mph) No people
United States, Mexico
12
GREEN
20180703.12 61 km/h (38 mph) No people
Mexico
13
GREEN
20180703.18 166 km/h (103 mph) No people affected
14
GREEN
20180704.00 61 km/h (38 mph) No people
Mexico
15
GREEN
20180704.06 143 km/h (88 mph) No people affected
16
GREEN
20180704.12 145 km/h (90 mph) No people affected
17
GREEN
20180704.18 140 km/h (87 mph) No people affected
18
GREEN
20180705.00 121 km/h (75 mph) No people affected
19
GREEN
20180705.06 109 km/h (68 mph) No people

Affected locations

Date Name Country Alert Storm surge height (m)
03 Jul 2018 22:45:00 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  1.0m
03 Jul 2018 22:30:00 El Tornillal Mexico  0.9m
03 Jul 2018 22:30:00 San Felipe Mexico  0.8m
03 Jul 2018 22:15:00 La Choya Mexico  0.7m
03 Jul 2018 22:15:00 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.7m
03 Jul 2018 21:00:00 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.4m
03 Jul 2018 22:00:00 Puertecitos Mexico  0.4m
03 Jul 2018 21:15:00 Molino Mexico  0.4m
03 Jul 2018 21:15:00 Molino Lacy Mexico  0.4m
03 Jul 2018 20:15:00 Puerto Libertad Mexico  0.4m
02 Jul 2018 05:15:00 La Paz Mexico  0.4m
02 Jul 2018 05:15:00 Rosario Mexico  0.4m
03 Jul 2018 04:00:00 El Desemboque Mexico  0.3m
03 Jul 2018 04:00:00 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.3m
Locations affected by Storm surge (15 of 313)
Calculation based on advisory number of 05 Jul 2018 12:00.
(Simulation using minute resolution)

See full locations list (RSS)

More information

The atmospheric forcing included in the storm surge model are the pressure drop and the wind-water friction. The effects of the short waves induced by the wind (wave setup) and the precipitations are not yet implemented in the model.

  • Interactive map: open

For a full list of available products related to this event, please refer to the GDACS Resources page.