Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MANGKHUT-18
in China, Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
alertimage

Red alert for storm surge impact based on HWRF source

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down.

This report is for advisory number 32 of tropical cyclone MANGKHUT-18 issued at 14 Sep 2018 18:00:00 (GDACS Event ID 1000498). However, the calculation for advisory number is not completed. Therefore, the latest available calculation is shown. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation.

Summary

Population affected by cyclone-strength winds (>120km/h):12 million
Saffir-Simpson Category: Category 2
Maximum sustained wind speed: 178 Km/h
Maximum Storm surge height is:  3.1m in Tai Po Industrial Estate, Hong Kong (China).

Storm surge

View animation and affected locations in an interactive map: open

Storm surge maximum height
Storm surge maximum height (Source: JRC)
Max windspeed
Max windspeed (Source: HWRF)

Evolution

Legend
people affected <=10000
people affected >10000 and <100000
people affected >100000


Calculation Alert color Date (UTC) Wind speed Population affected
winds(>120km/h)
TS CAT. 1 CAT. 2 CAT. 3 CAT. 4 CAT. 5 Countries
1
GREEN
20180907.00 169 km/h (105 mph) No people affected
2
GREEN
20180907.06 213 km/h (132 mph) No people affected
3
GREEN
20180907.12 229 km/h (142 mph) No people affected
4
GREEN
20180910.00 242 km/h (150 mph) No people affected
Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
5
GREEN
20180910.06 247 km/h (153 mph) 1 thousand
China, Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
6
GREEN
20180910.12 249 km/h (154 mph) 4 thousand
China, Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
7
GREEN
20180910.18 233 km/h (144 mph) No people affected
Vietnam, China
8
GREEN
20180911.00 253 km/h (157 mph) No people affected
Vietnam, China
9
GREEN
20180911.06 259 km/h (160 mph) No people affected
Taiwan, Philippines
10
RED
20180911.12 258 km/h (160 mph) 160 thousand
Taiwan, Philippines
11
RED
20180911.18 265 km/h (164 mph) 390 thousand
Taiwan, Philippines
12
RED
20180912.00 279 km/h (173 mph) 920 thousand
China, Taiwan, Philippines
13
RED
20180912.06 276 km/h (171 mph) 930 thousand
Taiwan, China, Philippines
14
RED
20180912.12 328 km/h (203 mph) 2.7 million
China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macau, Philippines, Taiwan, Philippines
15
RED
20180912.18 415 km/h (257 mph) 5.6 million
China, Taiwan, Japan, Hong Kong, Macau, Philippines, China, Taiwan, Philippines, Taiwan, China, Philippines
16
RED
20180913.00 270 km/h (167 mph) 2.8 million
China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macau, Philippines, China, Hong Kong, Philippines
17
RED
20180913.06 271 km/h (168 mph) 11 million
China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Philippines, China, Hong Kong, Philippines, Hong Kong, China, Macau, Philippines, China, Philippines
18
RED
20180913.12 359 km/h (222 mph) 43.3 million
China, Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines, China, Hong Kong, Philippines, Hong Kong, China, Macau, Philippines, China, Philippines
19
RED
20180913.18 276 km/h (171 mph) 14.7 million
China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Philippines, China, Hong Kong, Philippines, China, Hong Kong, Macau, Philippines
20
RED
20180914.00 285 km/h (177 mph) 14 million
China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Philippines, China, Hong Kong, Macau, Philippines, China, Hong Kong, Philippines, Hong Kong, China, Philippines
21
RED
20180914.06 281 km/h (174 mph) 25.8 million
China, Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines, China, Hong Kong, Macau, Philippines, China, Hong Kong, Philippines
22
RED
20180914.12 263 km/h (163 mph) 15.7 million
China, Taiwan, Vietnam, Hong Kong, Philippines, China, Hong Kong, Macau, Philippines, China, Hong Kong, Philippines, Hong Kong, China, Philippines
23
RED
20180914.18 271 km/h (168 mph) 18.1 million
China, Taiwan, Vietnam, Hong Kong, Philippines, Taiwan, China, Hong Kong, Philippines, Hong Kong, China, Macau, Philippines, China, Philippines
24
RED
20180915.00 258 km/h (160 mph) 15.6 million
China, Taiwan, Vietnam, Hong Kong, Philippines, China, Hong Kong, Macau, Philippines, Hong Kong, China, Philippines
25
RED
20180915.06 201 km/h (125 mph) 14.4 million
China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Philippines, China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macau, Philippines, China, Hong Kong, Macau, Philippines
26
RED
20180915.12 197 km/h (122 mph) 15.3 million
China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Philippines, Taiwan, China, Hong Kong, Macau, Philippines, Hong Kong, China
27
RED
20180915.18 165 km/h (102 mph) 5.3 million
China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macau, Vietnam, Philippines, China, Hong Kong, Macau
28
RED
20180916.00 162 km/h (100 mph) 5.4 million
China, Vietnam, Taiwan, Hong Kong, China, Hong Kong, Macau
29
RED
20180916.06 178 km/h (110 mph) 12 million
China, Vietnam, Hong Kong, Macau, China, Hong Kong

Affected locations

Date Name Country Alert Storm surge height (m)
16 Sep 2018 05:15:00 Tai Po Industrial Estate Hong Kong (China)  3.1m
16 Sep 2018 05:15:00 Fung Yuen Hong Kong (China)  3.1m
16 Sep 2018 05:15:00 Dabu Hong Kong (China)  3.1m
16 Sep 2018 05:15:00 Sha Tau Kok China  3.1m
16 Sep 2018 05:15:00 Cheung Kang Hong Kong (China)  3.1m
16 Sep 2018 05:15:00 Imtin China  3.1m
16 Sep 2018 05:15:00 Yau Ma Po Hong Kong (China)  3.1m
16 Sep 2018 05:15:00 Sai Kung Hong Kong (China)  3.1m
16 Sep 2018 05:15:00 Cheung Wo Hong Kong (China)  3.1m
16 Sep 2018 05:15:00 Pak Sha Au Hong Kong (China)  3.1m
16 Sep 2018 05:15:00 Long Ke Hong Kong (China)  3.1m
16 Sep 2018 05:15:00 Khitschhung China  3.1m
16 Sep 2018 05:15:00 Dapeng China  3.1m
16 Sep 2018 05:15:00 Taipang China  3.1m
Locations affected by Storm surge (15 of 2316)
Calculation based on advisory number of 16 Sep 2018 06:00.
(Simulation using minute resolution)

See full locations list (RSS)

More information

The atmospheric forcing included in the storm surge model are the pressure drop and the wind-water friction. The effects of the short waves induced by the wind (wave setup) and the precipitations are not yet implemented in the model.

For a full list of available products related to this event, please refer to the GDACS Resources page.