Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for MICHAEL-18
in United States, Cuba
alertimage

Orange alert for storm surge impact based on GFS source

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down.

This report is for advisory number 23 of tropical cyclone MICHAEL-18 issued at 12 Oct 2018 9:00:00 (GDACS Event ID 1000517). However, the calculation for advisory number is not completed. Therefore, the latest available calculation is shown. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation.

Summary

Population affected by cyclone-strength winds (>120km/h):8 thousand
Saffir-Simpson Category: Category 2
Maximum sustained wind speed: 175 Km/h
Maximum Storm surge height is:  1.8m in McNeils, United States.

Storm surge

View animation and affected locations in an interactive map: open

Storm surge maximum height
Storm surge maximum height (Source: JRC)
Max windspeed
Max windspeed (Source: GFS)

Evolution

Legend
people affected <=10000
people affected >10000 and <100000
people affected >100000


Calculation Alert color Date (UTC) Wind speed Population affected
winds(>120km/h)
TS CAT. 1 CAT. 2 CAT. 3 CAT. 4 CAT. 5 Countries
1
GREEN
20181009.00 160 km/h (99 mph) 8 thousand
United States, Portugal, Cuba
2
GREEN
20181009.06 175 km/h (108 mph) 8 thousand
United States, Portugal, Cuba

Affected locations

Date Name Country Alert Storm surge height (m)
10 Oct 2018 21:30:00 McNeils United States  1.8m
10 Oct 2018 21:30:00 Indian Pass United States  1.8m
10 Oct 2018 21:30:00 Thirteen Mile United States  1.8m
10 Oct 2018 21:30:00 Odena United States  1.8m
10 Oct 2018 21:30:00 Eleven Mile United States  1.8m
10 Oct 2018 21:30:00 Nine Mile United States  1.8m
10 Oct 2018 21:30:00 Tilton United States  1.8m
10 Oct 2018 21:00:00 Yent Place United States  1.6m
10 Oct 2018 21:00:00 Carrabelle United States  1.6m
10 Oct 2018 21:00:00 Lanark Village United States  1.6m
10 Oct 2018 21:00:00 Big Blackjack Landing United States  1.6m
10 Oct 2018 21:00:00 Eastpoint United States  1.6m
10 Oct 2018 21:15:00 Sun N Sand Beaches United States  1.5m
10 Oct 2018 22:45:00 Beacon Beach United States  1.5m
Locations affected by Storm surge (15 of 4756)
Calculation based on advisory number of 09 Oct 2018 06:00.
(Simulation using minute resolution)

See full locations list (RSS)

More information

The atmospheric forcing included in the storm surge model are the pressure drop and the wind-water friction. The effects of the short waves induced by the wind (wave setup) and the precipitations are not yet implemented in the model.

For a full list of available products related to this event, please refer to the GDACS Resources page.