Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for OSCAR-18
in Iceland, Ireland, United Kingdom, Faroe Islands, Svalbard and Jan Mayen, Norway, Sweden

Red alert for storm surge impact based on ECMWF source

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down.

This report is for advisory number 20 of tropical cyclone OSCAR-18 issued at 31 Oct 2018 21:00:00 (GDACS Event ID 1000525). However, the calculation for advisory number is not completed. Therefore, the latest available calculation is shown. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation.


Population affected by cyclone-strength winds (>120km/h):No People
Saffir-Simpson Category: Category 1
Maximum sustained wind speed: 119 Km/h
he maximum Storm surge height is:  3.3m in Dorchester, Canada.

Storm surge

View animation and affected locations in an interactive map: open

Storm surge maximum height
Storm surge maximum height (Source: JRC)
Max windspeed
Max windspeed (Source: ECMWF)


people affected <=10000
people affected >10000 and <100000
people affected >100000

Calculation Alert color Date (UTC) Wind speed Population affected
TS CAT. 1 CAT. 2 CAT. 3 CAT. 4 CAT. 5 Countries
20181026.12 107 km/h (66 mph) No people
Canada, United States
20181027.00 111 km/h (69 mph) No people
Canada, United States
20181027.12 137 km/h (85 mph) No people affected
Canada, United States
20181028.00 104 km/h (65 mph) No people
Canada, United States
20181028.12 97 km/h (60 mph) No people
20181029.00 119 km/h (74 mph) No people

Affected locations

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
30 Oct 2018 04:15 Dorchester Canada  3.3
30 Oct 2018 04:15 Joggins Canada  3.3
30 Oct 2018 04:15 Riverside Canada  3.0
30 Oct 2018 04:15 Cape Enrage Canada  2.5
30 Oct 2018 04:15 Apple River Canada  2.5
26 Oct 2018 16:30 Turner Bight Canada  2.3
26 Oct 2018 16:15 Davis Inlet Canada  2.3
30 Oct 2018 03:15 Scots Bay Canada  2.2
30 Oct 2018 03:15 Parrsboro Canada  2.2
30 Oct 2018 03:15 Port Greville Canada  2.2
30 Oct 2018 03:15 Hall Harbour Canada  2.2
30 Oct 2018 03:15 Canning Canada  2.2
30 Oct 2018 03:15 Kingsport Canada  2.2
30 Oct 2018 03:15 Spencer Island Canada  2.1
Locations affected by Storm surge (15 of 1834)
Calculation based on advisory number of 29 Oct 2018 00:00.
(Simulation using minute resolution)

See full locations list (RSS)

More information

The atmospheric forcing included in the storm surge model are the pressure drop and the wind-water friction. The effects of the short waves induced by the wind (wave setup) and the precipitations are not yet implemented in the model.

  • Interactive map: open

For a full list of available products related to this event, please refer to the GDACS Resources page.