Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for RAMON-17
Off-shore

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Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 050832
TCDEP4

Remnants Of Ramon Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192017
400 AM CDT Thu Oct 05 2017

Satellite data indicate that Ramon has degenerated into a trough
of low pressure and that the shower activity near the center
of circulation NHC was tracking has practically vanished. Since
strong wind shear will prevail in this area, regeneration is not
anticipated. This is the last advisory issued by the National
Hurricane Center on this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 15.0N 102.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...REMNANT LOW
12H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 050248 RRA
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION RAMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192017
1000 PM CDT WED OCT 04 2017

MEXICAN RADAR DATA, SHIP OBSERVATIONS, AND LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE
IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE ORIGINAL LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF RAMON HAS
DISSIPATED. EARLIER ASCAT DATA INDICATED THE FORMATION OF A NEW
CENTER UNDER CONVECTION WELL TO THE WEST, AND THIS HAS PROBABLY
BECOME THE PRIMARY CENTER, IF ONE STILL EXISTS. AS A RESULT, THE
INITIAL POSITION OF RAMON HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE
WEST. WHATEVER REMAINS OF RAMON WILL LIKELY BE STEERED GENERALLY
WESTWARD BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. SINCE
MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE NO LONGER DEPICTS A TRACKABLE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER, THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY, IN AN EFFORT TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY. THEREFORE, THE
FORECAST SHOWS A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES, IN 24 HOURS OR LESS.

DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE DECREASED AND RAMON IS NOW ESTIMATED TO
BE A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
FORECAST THAT RAMON WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY, AND IN FACT THE MOST
RECENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND UKMET SUGGEST THAT ONLY A TROUGH SHOULD
EXIST NOW. THERE IS SOME INDICATION FROM THE GFS AND THE GFS-BASED
HURRICANE MODELS THAT THE MID-LEVEL REMNANTS OF RAMON COULD INTERACT
WITH A DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST IN A DAY OR TWO AND REGENERATE, OR
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER,
THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY ANY OF THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS, AND 30 KT
OR MORE OF SHEAR SHOULD PROHIBIT SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT.


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 050248
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Ramon Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192017
1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 04 2017

Mexican radar data, ship observations, and last-light visible
imagery indicate that the original low-level center of Ramon has
dissipated. Earlier ASCAT data indicated the formation of a new
center under convection well to the west, and this has probably
become the primary center, if one still exists. As a result, the
initial position of Ramon has been adjusted significantly to the
west. Whatever remains of Ramon will likely be steered generally
westward by a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico. Since
most of the track guidance no longer depicts a trackable low-level
center, the new NHC track forecast follows the trend of the previous
advisory, in an effort to maintain some continuity. Therefore, the
forecast shows a continued westward motion with a slight increase in
forward speed until the cyclone dissipates, in 24 hours or less.

Dvorak classifications have decreased and Ramon is now estimated to
be a 30 kt tropical depression. All of the dynamical models
forecast that Ramon will dissipate quickly, and in fact the most
recent runs of the ECMWF and UKMET suggest that only a trough should
exist now. There is some indication from the GFS and the GFS-based
hurricane models that the mid-level remnants of Ramon could interact
with a disturbance to the west in a day or two and regenerate, or
contribute to the development of a new tropical cyclone. However,
this is not supported by any of the other global models, and 30 kt
or more of shear should prohibit significant redevelopment.

Even if Ramon dissipates later tonight or tomorrow, locally heavy
rainfall is still expected along the immediate coast of southern
Mexico through Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 14.8N 101.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 14.8N 104.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 042035
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Ramon Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192017
400 PM CDT Wed Oct 04 2017

Geostationary and microwave satellite imagery, along with Mexican
radar data, indicate that Ramon is becoming less organized. Although
the estimated intensity estimate will be held at 40 kt based on a
ship report that may or may not be correct, weakening seems likely.
Strong easterly shear is forecast by the global models to persist
over Ramon for the next couple of days, and most of these models
show the tropical cyclone dissipating in 24 to 48 hours. Based on
that guidance and the current trends, the official forecast now
calls for the system to dissipate in 48 hours, and this event could
occur sooner than that.

The center, if it still exists, continues to be difficult to locate
but the system appears to be moving a little faster toward the
west-northwest or 285/8 kt. A large mid-level ridge to the north of
Ramon is expected to steer the cyclone on a slightly north of
westward track until it dissipates. The official track forecast is
somewhat faster than the previous one and lies roughly in the middle
of the track model guidance.

The primary concern with this system is locally heavy rains, which
should occur predominately in the immediate coastal zone of southern
Mexico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 15.2N 97.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 15.3N 99.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 15.6N 102.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 16.0N 105.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 041435 RRA
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM RAMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192017
1000 AM CDT WED OCT 04 2017

FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM IS NOT
VERY WELL ORGANIZED WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES.
HOWEVER, RADAR IMAGES FROM PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO DO DEPICT SOME
RAINBANDS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 40 KT, WHICH IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE
LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES. RAMON IS EXPERIENCING STRONG EASTERLY
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR THE
TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE ONLY A
SLIGHT LESSENING OF THIS SHEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, SO ONLY
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING SEEMS POSSIBLE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE, BUT MY BEST GUESS OF THE INITIAL
MOTION IS 285/6 KT. A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST, WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A MOSTLY
WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE. THERE IS A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD IN THE
MODELS SO THIS FORECAST IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE.

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF RAMON IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE, THE
NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE TRACK FORECAST REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE MEXICAN COAST AT THIS
TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 14.9N 96.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 15.1N 97.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 15.2N 100.4W 40 KT 45 MPH


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 041435
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Ramon Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192017
1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 04 2017

First light visible satellite imagery show that the system is not
very well organized with little evidence of banding features.
However, radar images from Puerto Angel Mexico do depict some
rainbands over the western portion of the circulation. The current
intensity estimate is held at 40 kt, which is a little above the
latest Dvorak estimates. Ramon is experiencing strong easterly
shear associated with a large anticyclone centered near the
Texas/Mexico border. The dynamical model guidance indicate only a
slight lessening of this shear over the next few days, so only
slight strengthening seems possible. The official intensity
forecast follows the model consensus.

The center is difficult to locate, but my best guess of the initial
motion is 285/6 kt. A large mid-level ridge to the north of the
tropical cyclone is forecast to persist, which should cause a mostly
westward track over the next several days. The official forecast is
a little to the north of the previous one and roughly in the middle
of the track model guidance. There is a fairly large spread in the
models so this forecast is of low confidence.

Although the center of Ramon is expected to remain offshore, the
northward adjustment of the track forecast requires the issuance of
a Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the Mexican coast at this
time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 14.9N 96.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 15.1N 97.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 15.2N 100.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 15.5N 103.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 16.0N 106.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 16.5N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 17.0N 112.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 18.0N 114.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 040903 RRA
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM RAMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192017
400 AM CDT WED OCT 04 2017

THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO HAS BEEN PRODUCING PERSISTENT CONVECTION FOR ABOUT
12 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION DUE TO STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR, IT HAS
ENOUGH ORGANIZATION FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE CLASSIFY AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 0410 UTC REVEALED A SMALL AREA
OF 35-40 KT WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER, SO ADVISORIES ARE
BEING INITIATED ON A 40-KT TROPICAL STORM, THE SEVENTEENTH TROPICAL
STORM OF THE 2017 EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON. STRONG
EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER RAMON DURING THE NEXT
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WHICH IS LIKELY TO PREVENT STRENGTHENING
OF THE SMALL TROPICAL STORM. THE ECMWF AND GFS WEAKEN THE CYCLONE
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO, ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS SHOW SOME INTERACTION
WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FARTHER WEST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NHC
FORECAST IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE AND CALLS FOR NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS FOR RAMON
TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MEXICO AND DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT
2-3 DAYS.

RAMON IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 270/8 KT TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP LAYER
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
BUILD WESTWARD OVER NORTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WHICH
SHOULD CAUSE RAMON TO MOVE WESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD
SPEED. LATER IN THE PERIOD, RAMON IS FORECAST TO REACH THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 040903
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Ramon Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192017
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 04 2017

The small low pressure area located just south of the coast of
southern Mexico has been producing persistent convection for about
12 hours. Although the convection is confined to the western
portion of the circulation due to strong easterly shear, it has
enough organization for the system to be classify as a tropical
cyclone. Scatterometer data from 0410 UTC revealed a small area
of 35-40 kt winds to the west of the center, so advisories are
being initiated on a 40-kt tropical storm, the seventeenth tropical
storm of the 2017 eastern Pacific hurricane season. Strong
easterly shear is forecast to persist over Ramon during the next
during the next few days, which is likely to prevent strengthening
of the small tropical storm. The ECMWF and GFS weaken the cyclone
over the next day or so, although both models show some interaction
with another disturbance farther west in a couple of days. The NHC
forecast is of low confidence and calls for no change in strength
throughout the forecast period. An alternate scenario is for Ramon
to move closer to the coast of Mexico and dissipate within the next
2-3 days.

Ramon is moving westward or 270/8 kt to the south of a deep layer
ridge over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The ridge is forecast to
build westward over northern Mexico during the next few days, which
should cause Ramon to move westward at a slightly faster forward
speed. Later in the period, Ramon is forecast to reach the western
portion of the ridge and turn northwestward. Although most of the
model guidance agrees with this general scenario, there is a fair
amount of spread in the track models. The GFS and HWRF show a
faster westward motion while the ECMWF is much slower. The UKMET
is the outlier by taking Ramon eastward toward central America as a
low pressure area develops over the western Caribbean. Given the
large spread in the guidance, the NHC track forecast shows a slower
westward track and is close to the GFS and ECMWF ensemble means.
The confidence in the track forecast is quite low and interests
along the southern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of
this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 14.3N 96.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 14.3N 97.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 14.3N 99.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 14.3N 102.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 14.4N 104.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 14.5N 107.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 14.5N 111.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 15.5N 112.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 040901 RRA
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM RAMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192017
400 AM CDT WED OCT 04 2017

THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO HAS BEEN PRODUCING PERSISTENT CONVECTION FOR ABOUT
12 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION DUE TO STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR, IT HAS
ENOUGH ORGANIZATION FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE CLASSIFY AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 0410 UTC REVEALED A SMALL AREA
OF 35-40 KT WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER, SO ADVISORIES ARE
BEING INITIATED ON A 40-KT TROPICAL STORM, THE SEVENTEENTH TROPICAL
STORM OF THE 2017 EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON. STRONG
EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER RAMON DURING THE NEXT
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WHICH IS LIKELY TO PREVENT STRENGTHENING
OF THE SMALL TROPICAL STORM. THE ECMWF AND GFS WEAKEN THE CYCLONE
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO, ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS SHOW SOME INTERACTION
WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FARTHER WEST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NHC
FORECAST IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE AND CALLS FOR NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS FOR RAMON
TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MEXICO AND DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT
2-3 DAYS.

RAMON IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 270/8 KT TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP LAYER
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
BUILD WESTWARD OVER NORTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WHICH
SHOULD CAUSE RAMON TO MOVE WESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD
SPEED. LATER IN THE PERIOD, RAMON IS FORECAST TO REACH THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 040901
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Ramon Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192017
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 04 2017

The small low pressure area located just south of the coast of
southern Mexico has been producing persistent convection for about
12 hours. Although the convection is confined to the western
portion of the circulation due to strong easterly shear, it has
enough organization for the system to be classify as a tropical
cyclone. Scatterometer data from 0410 UTC revealed a small area
of 35-40 kt winds to the west of the center, so advisories are
being initiated on a 40-kt tropical storm, the seventeenth tropical
storm of the 2017 eastern Pacific hurricane season. Strong
easterly shear is forecast to persist over Ramon during the next
during the next few days, which is likely to prevent strengthening
of the small tropical storm. The ECMWF and GFS weaken the cyclone
over the next day or so, although both models show some interaction
with another disturbance farther west in a couple of days. The NHC
forecast is of low confidence and calls for no change in strength
throughout the forecast period. An alternate scenario is for Ramon
to move closer to the coast of Mexico and dissipate within the next
2-3 days.

Ramon is moving westward or 270/8 kt to the south of a deep layer
ridge over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The ridge is forecast to
build westward over northern Mexico during the next few days, which
should cause Ramon to move westward at a slightly faster forward
speed. Later in the period, Ramon is forecast to reach the western
portion of the ridge and turn northwestward. Although most of the
model guidance agrees with this general scenario, there is a fair
amount of spread in the track models. The GFS and HWRF show a
faster westward motion while the ECMWF is much slower. The UKMET
is the outlier by taking Ramon eastward toward central America as a
low pressure area develops over the western Caribbean. Given the
large spread in the guidance, the NHC track forecast shows a slower
westward track and is close to the GFS and ECMWF ensemble means.
The confidence in the track forecast is quite low.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 14.3N 96.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 14.3N 97.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 14.3N 99.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 14.3N 102.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 14.4N 104.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 14.5N 107.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 14.5N 111.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 15.5N 112.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 050832 RRA
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF RAMON ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192017
400 AM CDT THU OCT 05 2017

...RAMON DEGENERATES INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...
.....................................................................
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
.....T
....TH
...THI
..THIS
IS
THE
LAST
ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 102.5W
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), THE REMNANTS OF RAMON WERE LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 102.5 WEST. THE REMNANTS OF RAMON ARE
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H).

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH (35 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB (29.77 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

.....................................................................
......


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 050832
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Ramon Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192017
400 AM CDT Thu Oct 05 2017

...RAMON DEGENERATES INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 102.5W
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the remnants of Ramon were located near
latitude 15.0 North, longitude 102.5 West. The remnants of Ramon are
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h).

Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph (35 km/h) with higher
gusts. Continued weakening is expected this morning.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.

$$
Forecaster Avila


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 050246 RRA
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION RAMON ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192017
1000 PM CDT WED OCT 04 2017

...POORLY ORGANIZED RAMON WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 101.9W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FROM PUERTO ANGEL TO ACAPULCO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION RAMON
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 101.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). A
CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, RAMON WILL
CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND
ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: RAMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 050246
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ramon Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192017
1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 04 2017

...POORLY ORGANIZED RAMON WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 101.9W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch
from Puerto Angel to Acapulco.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ramon
was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 101.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
continued westward motion with an increase in forward speed is
expected for the next day or two. On the forecast track, Ramon will
continue moving away from the southern coast of Mexico tonight and
on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. The depression is expected to dissipate within
the next 24 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Ramon is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches over the Mexican
states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, and southern Michoacan through Thursday,
with heaviest amounts occurring near the coast. This rainfall
could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 042353 RRA
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAMON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192017
700 PM CDT WED OCT 04 2017

CORRECTED SUMMARY BLOCK FORMATTING

...RAMON BRINGING HEAVY RAIN TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 99.0W
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM SSW OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PUERTO ANGEL TO ACAPULCO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAMON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 99.0 WEST. RAMON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND A GENERAL WESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, THE CENTER OF RAMON IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO, BUT
REMAIN OFFSHORE OF, THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH (75 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAMON IS LOSING ORGANIZATION, AND WEAKENING IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY OR SOONER.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM)


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 042353 CCA
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ramon Intermediate Advisory Number 3A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192017
700 PM CDT Wed Oct 04 2017

Corrected summary block formatting

...RAMON BRINGING HEAVY RAIN TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 99.0W
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM SSW OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Angel to Acapulco

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to
24 hours.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ramon was
located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 99.0 West. Ramon is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a general westward
motion is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, the center of Ramon is expected to move parallel to, but
remain offshore of, the coast of southern Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Ramon is losing organization, and weakening is
forecast to continue during the next day or two. The cyclone is
expected to dissipate by Friday or sooner.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Ramon is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches over the Mexican
states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, and southern Michoacan through Thursday,
with heaviest amounts occurring near the coast. This rainfall
could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
through this evening.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 042334 RRA
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAMON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192017
700 PM CDT WED OCT 04 2017

...RAMON BRINGING HEAVY RAIN TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1 N 99.0W
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM SSW OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PUERTO ANGEL TO ACAPULCO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAMON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 99.0 WEST. RAMON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND A GENERAL WESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, THE CENTER OF RAMON IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO, BUT
REMAIN OFFSHORE OF, THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. RAMON IS LOSING ORGANIZATION, AND WEAKENING IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY OR SOONER.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM)


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 042334
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ramon Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192017
700 PM CDT Wed Oct 04 2017

...RAMON BRINGING HEAVY RAIN TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1 N 99.0W
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM SSW OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Angel to Acapulco

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to
24 hours.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ramon was
located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 99.0 West. Ramon is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a general westward
motion is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, the center of Ramon is expected to move parallel to, but
remain offshore of, the coast of southern Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Ramon is losing organization, and weakening is
forecast to continue during the next day or two. The cyclone is
expected to dissipate by Friday or sooner.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Ramon is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches over the Mexican
states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, and southern Michoacan through Thursday,
with heaviest amounts occurring near the coast. This rainfall
could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
through this evening.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 042035 RRA
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAMON ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192017
400 PM CDT WED OCT 04 2017

...RAMON BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED...
....NOW EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS OR SOONER...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 97.7W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF PUNTO MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PUERTO ANGEL TO ACAPULCO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAMON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 97.7 WEST. RAMON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H), AND A
GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE
CENTER OF RAMON IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO, BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE
OF, THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
RAMON IS LOSING ORGANIZATION, AND WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY
OR SOONER.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM)


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 042035
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ramon Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192017
400 PM CDT Wed Oct 04 2017

...RAMON BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED...
...NOW EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS OR SOONER...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 97.7W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF PUNTO MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Angel to Acapulco.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to
24 hours.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ramon was
located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 97.7 West. Ramon is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a
general westward motion with some increase in forward speed is
expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the
center of Ramon is expected to move parallel to, but remain offshore
of, the coast of southern Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Ramon is losing organization, and weakening is forecast during
the next day or two. The cyclone is expected to dissipate by Friday
or sooner.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Ramon is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches over the Mexican
states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, and southern Michoacan through Thursday,
with heaviest amounts occurring near the coast. This rainfall
could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
through this evening.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 041742 RRA
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAMON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192017
100 PM CDT WED OCT 04 2017

...HEAVY RAINS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 97.0W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PUERTO ANGEL TO ACAPULCO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAMON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 97.0 WEST. RAMON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H), AND A
GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE
CENTER OF RAMON IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO, BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE
OF, THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

RAMON IS A SMALL TROPICAL STORM. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE CENTER.


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 041742
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ramon Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192017
100 PM CDT Wed Oct 04 2017

...HEAVY RAINS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 97.0W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Angel to Acapulco.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to
24 hours.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ramon was
located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 97.0 West. Ramon is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a
general westward motion with some increase in forward speed is
expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the
center of Ramon is expected to move parallel to, but remain offshore
of, the coast of southern Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is likely during the next 48
hours.

Ramon is a small tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Ramon is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches over the Mexican
states of Oaxaca and coastal Guerrero through Thursday. This
rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
during the next day or so.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 041434 RRA
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAMON ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192017
1000 AM CDT WED OCT 04 2017

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 96.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
PUERTO ANGEL TO ACAPULCO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PUERTO ANGEL TO ACAPULCO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAMON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 96.5 WEST. RAMON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H) AND A
GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE
CENTER OF RAMON IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO, BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE
OF, THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 041434
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ramon Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192017
1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 04 2017

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 96.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from
Puerto Angel to Acapulco.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Angel to Acapulco.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to
24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ramon was
located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 96.5 West. Ramon is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and a
generally westward motion with some increase in forward speed is
expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the
center of Ramon is expected to move parallel to, but remain offshore
of, the coast of southern Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Only slight strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Ramon is a small tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Ramon is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches over the Mexican
states of Oaxaca and coastal Guerrero through Thursday. This
rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
during the next day or so.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 040858 RRA
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAMON ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192017
400 AM CDT WED OCT 04 2017

...TROPICAL STORM FORMS JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
....HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 96.0W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNING IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF RAMON.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAMON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 96.0 WEST. RAMON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF RAMON IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO.

SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR
45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

RAMON IS A SMALL TROPICAL STORM. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) PRIMARILY TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES).


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 040858
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ramon Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192017
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 04 2017

...TROPICAL STORM FORMS JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 96.0W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warning in effect.

Interests along the southern coast of Mexico should monitor the
progress of Ramon.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ramon was
located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 96.0 West. Ramon is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general
motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the
next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of Ramon is
expected to move parallel to but remain offshore of the coast of
southern Mexico.

Satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near
45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is
forecast during the next couple of days.

Ramon is a small tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 35 miles (55 km) primarily to the west and southwest
of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Ramon is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches over the Mexican
states of Oaxaca and coastal Guerrero through Thursday. This
rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Strong gusty winds could occur along portions of the
southern coast of Mexico between Puerto Angel and Acapulco during
the next day or so.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 050831
TCMEP4

REMNANTS OF RAMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192017
0900 UTC THU OCT 05 2017


CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 102.5W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 102.5W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 102.0W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 102.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 050246
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION RAMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192017
0300 UTC THU OCT 05 2017


CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FROM PUERTO ANGEL TO ACAPULCO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 101.9W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 101.9W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 101.2W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 14.8N 104.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 101.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 042034
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM RAMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192017
2100 UTC WED OCT 04 2017


CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO ANGEL TO ACAPULCO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 97.7W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 97.7W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 97.3W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.3N 99.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.6N 102.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.0N 105.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 97.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 041434 RRA
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM RAMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192017
1500 UTC WED OCT 04 2017


CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
PUERTO ANGEL TO ACAPULCO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PUERTO ANGEL TO ACAPULCO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 96.5W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 96.5W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 96.2W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 15.1N 97.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.2N 100.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.5N 103.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 16.0N 106.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.5N 109.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 60NW.


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 041434
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM RAMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192017
1500 UTC WED OCT 04 2017


CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
PUERTO ANGEL TO ACAPULCO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO ANGEL TO ACAPULCO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 96.5W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 96.5W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 96.2W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 15.1N 97.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.2N 100.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.5N 103.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 16.0N 106.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.5N 109.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 17.0N 112.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 18.0N 114.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 96.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 040855
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM RAMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192017
0900 UTC WED OCT 04 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 96.0W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 96.0W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 95.5W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.3N 97.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.3N 99.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 14.3N 102.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 14.4N 104.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 14.5N 107.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 14.5N 111.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 15.5N 112.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 96.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 040855 RRA
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM RAMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192017
0900 UTC WED OCT 04 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 96.0W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 96.0W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 95.5W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.3N 97.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.3N 99.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 14.3N 102.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 14.4N 104.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 14.5N 107.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 14.5N 111.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 15.5N 112.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 041000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19E (RAMON) WARNING NR 001
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 14.3N 95.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 95.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 14.3N 97.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 14.3N 99.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 14.3N 102.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 14.4N 104.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 14.5N 107.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 14.5N 111.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 15.5N 112.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
041000Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 96.1W.
TROPICAL STORM 19E (RAMON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1615 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 041600Z, 042200Z, 050400Z AND 051000Z.
//


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 041607

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 04.10.2017

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.0N 82.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.10.2017 0 12.0N 82.0W 1007 21
0000UTC 05.10.2017 12 12.8N 82.7W 1004 24
1200UTC 05.10.2017 24 13.9N 83.7W 1001 28
0000UTC 06.10.2017 36 15.6N 84.4W 1001 32
1200UTC 06.10.2017 48 18.1N 86.0W 996 31
0000UTC 07.10.2017 60 20.8N 87.4W 993 37
1200UTC 07.10.2017 72 23.7N 88.9W 991 41
0000UTC 08.10.2017 84 27.1N 88.9W 988 53
1200UTC 08.10.2017 96 30.5N 87.3W 980 57
0000UTC 09.10.2017 108 33.3N 84.4W 987 27
1200UTC 09.10.2017 120 35.7N 81.6W 997 25
0000UTC 10.10.2017 132 39.2N 78.3W 1005 25
1200UTC 10.10.2017 144 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM RAMON ANALYSED POSITION : 14.1N 96.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.10.2017 0 14.1N 96.1W 1003 35
0000UTC 05.10.2017 12 14.7N 97.7W 1003 31
1200UTC 05.10.2017 24 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 30.0N 69.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.10.2017 84 28.9N 69.7W 1008 32
1200UTC 08.10.2017 96 28.0N 69.6W 1007 30
0000UTC 09.10.2017 108 27.2N 71.5W 1006 27
1200UTC 09.10.2017 120 24.9N 73.0W 1006 20
0000UTC 10.10.2017 132 23.0N 73.8W 1005 23
1200UTC 10.10.2017 144 22.7N 75.0W 1003 26

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 30.8N 43.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.10.2017 84 30.4N 45.0W 1012 30
1200UTC 08.10.2017 96 29.4N 46.7W 1011 29
0000UTC 09.10.2017 108 28.6N 48.3W 1010 28
1200UTC 09.10.2017 120 28.6N 49.7W 1011 27
0000UTC 10.10.2017 132 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 041607


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 041607

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 04.10.2017

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.0N 82.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162017

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 04.10.2017 12.0N 82.0W WEAK
00UTC 05.10.2017 12.8N 82.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.10.2017 13.9N 83.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.10.2017 15.6N 84.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.10.2017 18.1N 86.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.10.2017 20.8N 87.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2017 23.7N 88.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.10.2017 27.1N 88.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2017 30.5N 87.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.10.2017 33.3N 84.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.10.2017 35.7N 81.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.10.2017 39.2N 78.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.10.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM RAMON ANALYSED POSITION : 14.1N 96.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192017

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 04.10.2017 14.1N 96.1W WEAK
00UTC 05.10.2017 14.7N 97.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.10.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 30.0N 69.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.10.2017 28.9N 69.7W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 08.10.2017 28.0N 69.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.10.2017 27.2N 71.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.10.2017 24.9N 73.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.10.2017 23.0N 73.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.10.2017 22.7N 75.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 30.8N 43.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.10.2017 30.4N 45.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 08.10.2017 29.4N 46.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.10.2017 28.6N 48.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.10.2017 28.6N 49.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.10.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 041607