Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for OPHELIA-17
in Ireland, United Kingdom

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones (WT) or Tsunami (WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present. The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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2017-10-16 09:46

WTNT82 EGRR 160404

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 16.10.2017

HURRICANE OPHELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 47.8N 13.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.10.2017 0 47.8N 13.9W 961 60
1200UTC 16.10.2017 12 52.3N 10.5W 962 56
0000UTC 17.10.2017 24 POST-TROPICAL

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 32.1N 67.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.10.2017 48 33.5N 65.3W 1007 40
1200UTC 18.10.2017 60 35.8N 61.4W 1003 42
0000UTC 19.10.2017 72 37.6N 55.5W 1004 48
1200UTC 19.10.2017 84 37.5N 47.8W 1008 52
0000UTC 20.10.2017 96 36.1N 42.7W 1014 44
1200UTC 20.10.2017 108 35.3N 40.7W 1017 33
0000UTC 21.10.2017 120 36.4N 40.0W 1017 26
1200UTC 21.10.2017 132 39.2N 38.4W 1013 31
0000UTC 22.10.2017 144 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 30.0N 63.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.10.2017 144 30.2N 62.3W 1015 28

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 33.1N 53.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.10.2017 144 33.1N 53.4W 1012 32


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 160404

2017-10-16 09:46

WTNT82 EGRR 151605

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 15.10.2017

HURRICANE OPHELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 40.2N 16.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.10.2017 0 40.2N 16.7W 960 80
0000UTC 16.10.2017 12 47.7N 14.0W 956 67
1200UTC 16.10.2017 24 52.4N 10.1W 958 56
0000UTC 17.10.2017 36 POST-TROPICAL

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 30.3N 68.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.10.2017 48 31.6N 67.5W 1008 43
0000UTC 18.10.2017 60 34.1N 63.6W 1000 48
1200UTC 18.10.2017 72 36.7N 58.6W 1002 46
0000UTC 19.10.2017 84 39.2N 50.8W 1003 48
1200UTC 19.10.2017 96 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 33.9N 60.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 21.10.2017 132 33.9N 60.9W 1008 34
1200UTC 21.10.2017 144 35.3N 54.8W 1009 39


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 151605

2017-10-16 09:46

WTNT82 EGRR 150404

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 15.10.2017

HURRICANE OPHELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 36.7N 22.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.10.2017 0 36.7N 22.7W 967 70
1200UTC 15.10.2017 12 40.9N 16.9W 966 77
0000UTC 16.10.2017 24 48.3N 14.3W 954 82
1200UTC 16.10.2017 36 53.0N 10.0W 959 58
0000UTC 17.10.2017 48 POST-TROPICAL

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 29.7N 69.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.10.2017 60 30.9N 68.0W 1009 36
0000UTC 18.10.2017 72 32.8N 65.4W 1007 44
1200UTC 18.10.2017 84 34.8N 62.2W 1007 40
0000UTC 19.10.2017 96 35.6N 58.1W 1008 42
1200UTC 19.10.2017 108 35.3N 55.7W 1011 43
0000UTC 20.10.2017 120 35.3N 54.4W 1012 26
1200UTC 20.10.2017 132 36.7N 52.1W 1010 29
0000UTC 21.10.2017 144 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 150404

2017-10-16 09:46

WTNT82 EGRR 141604

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 14.10.2017

HURRICANE OPHELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 34.3N 27.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.10.2017 0 34.3N 27.6W 969 71
0000UTC 15.10.2017 12 36.9N 22.6W 964 74
1200UTC 15.10.2017 24 41.4N 16.9W 962 79
0000UTC 16.10.2017 36 48.3N 13.8W 952 81
1200UTC 16.10.2017 48 53.1N 9.6W 960 56
0000UTC 17.10.2017 60 POST-TROPICAL

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 30.0N 69.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.10.2017 72 31.4N 68.0W 1009 37
0000UTC 18.10.2017 84 33.4N 64.5W 1004 43
1200UTC 18.10.2017 96 35.4N 60.3W 1006 41
0000UTC 19.10.2017 108 36.4N 54.9W 1008 37
1200UTC 19.10.2017 120 35.9N 50.9W 1013 47
0000UTC 20.10.2017 132 35.2N 49.0W 1014 32
1200UTC 20.10.2017 144 36.1N 48.8W 1014 29


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 141604

2017-10-16 09:46

WTNT80 EGRR 160404

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 16.10.2017

HURRICANE OPHELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 47.8N 13.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172017

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 16.10.2017 47.8N 13.9W STRONG
12UTC 16.10.2017 52.3N 10.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.10.2017 POST-TROPICAL

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 32.1N 67.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 18.10.2017 33.5N 65.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.10.2017 35.8N 61.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.10.2017 37.6N 55.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.10.2017 37.5N 47.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 20.10.2017 36.1N 42.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 20.10.2017 35.3N 40.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.10.2017 36.4N 40.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.10.2017 39.2N 38.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.10.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 30.0N 63.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 22.10.2017 30.2N 62.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 33.1N 53.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 22.10.2017 33.1N 53.4W WEAK


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 160404

2017-10-16 09:46

WTNT80 EGRR 151605

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 15.10.2017

HURRICANE OPHELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 40.2N 16.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172017

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.10.2017 40.2N 16.7W STRONG
00UTC 16.10.2017 47.7N 14.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.10.2017 52.4N 10.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.10.2017 POST-TROPICAL

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 30.3N 68.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.10.2017 31.6N 67.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 18.10.2017 34.1N 63.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.10.2017 36.7N 58.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.10.2017 39.2N 50.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.10.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 33.9N 60.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 21.10.2017 33.9N 60.9W WEAK
12UTC 21.10.2017 35.3N 54.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 151605

2017-10-16 09:46

WTNT80 EGRR 150404

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 15.10.2017

HURRICANE OPHELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 36.7N 22.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172017

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.10.2017 36.7N 22.7W STRONG
12UTC 15.10.2017 40.9N 16.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.10.2017 48.3N 14.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 16.10.2017 53.0N 10.0W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.10.2017 POST-TROPICAL

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 29.7N 69.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.10.2017 30.9N 68.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 18.10.2017 32.8N 65.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.10.2017 34.8N 62.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.10.2017 35.6N 58.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.10.2017 35.3N 55.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.10.2017 35.3N 54.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.10.2017 36.7N 52.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.10.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 150404

2017-10-16 09:46

WTNT80 EGRR 141604

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 14.10.2017

HURRICANE OPHELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 34.3N 27.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172017

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 14.10.2017 34.3N 27.6W STRONG
00UTC 15.10.2017 36.9N 22.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.10.2017 41.4N 16.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.10.2017 48.3N 13.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.10.2017 53.1N 9.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.10.2017 POST-TROPICAL

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 30.0N 69.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.10.2017 31.4N 68.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 18.10.2017 33.4N 64.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.10.2017 35.4N 60.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.10.2017 36.4N 54.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.10.2017 35.9N 50.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 20.10.2017 35.2N 49.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.10.2017 36.1N 48.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 141604

2017-10-16 09:46

WTNT42 KNHC 160252
TCDAT2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 PM AST Sun Oct 15 2017

Within just the past six hours, the last bit of deep convection
near Ophelia's center has been sheared off well to the north, and
the cyclone has acquired a definitive extratropical structure.
Ophelia has completed its transition to an occluded low, with an
attached warm front extending northeastward across Ireland and a
cold front draped southeastward toward Spain and Portugal. The
powerful cyclone continues to produce hurricane-force winds, with
recent ASCAT data showing wind vectors as high as 70 kt to the east
of the center. Based on these data, the initial intensity remains
75 kt to account for undersampling. The occluded low is forecast to
gradually fill and weaken during the next couple of days, and it is
likely to dissipate near the western coast of Norway by 48 hours.
Despite the expected weakening, the post-tropical cyclone is still
likely to bring hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, to
portions of western Ireland on Monday.

Ophelia has accelerated and retrograded slightly during the past
6-12 hours during the occlusion process, and the long-term motion
estimate is northward, or 010/38 kt. Now that occlusion is
complete, the post-tropical cyclone should resume a north-
northeastward motion, with some decrease in forward speed, within
the next 12 hours. That heading should continue for the ensuing day
or two, bringing the center of the cyclone near the western coast of
Ireland on Monday and then near northern Scotland Monday night.
The dynamical track models remain in good agreement on this
scenario, and the updated NHC forecast is not too different from
the previous one.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
now that Ophelia has become post-tropical. Local forecasts,
warnings, and other communications regarding the post-tropical
cyclone that are pertinent to Ireland and the United Kingdom will
continue to be available from Met Eireann and the UK Met Office.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Ophelia will remain a powerful extratropical cyclone with
hurricane-force winds while it moves near Ireland and the United
Kingdom Monday and Monday night. Strong winds and heavy rain are
likely in portions of these areas, along with dangerous marine
conditions. For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location
of impacts from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should
refer to products issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the
United Kingdom should refer to products issued by the Met Office.

2. Individuals are urged to not focus on the exact track of Ophelia
since strong winds and heavy rainfall will extend well outside of
the NHC forecast cone.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 49.2N 13.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 16/1200Z 53.2N 10.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 17/0000Z 57.4N 5.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 17/1200Z 61.9N 0.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

2017-10-16 09:46

WTNT42 KNHC 152042
TCDAT2

Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 PM AST Sun Oct 15 2017

Ophelia's cloud structure is declining rapidly, and microwave and
shortwave IR imagery indicate that the low-level and mid-level
centers are becoming separated. However, some deep convection is
still present near Ophelia's center, and an SSMIS pass from 1827 UTC
indicated that the hurricane still has an inner core that is
separated from a front to the north and west. The estimated maximum
winds have been decreased slightly to 75 kt given the overall decay
of the cloud structure. However, the cyclone's favorable position
relative to an upper-level jet streak is likely contributing to
deepening of the low as the wind field expands substantially. Only
a slight decrease in the maximum winds is therefore expected before
the post-tropical cyclone reaches Ireland. After that time,
interaction with land while the cyclone occludes should cause it to
weaken more rapidly. Around 48 h, the cyclone's circulation is
likely to become ill-defined and dissipate near the western coast of
Scandinavia.

Ophelia has continued to move toward the north-northeast, and the
initial motion estimate remains 025/33 kt. There has been no change
to the track forecast reasoning since Ophelia is already embedded
within the flow associated with a large mid-latitude trough. This
should keep Ophelia on a north-northeast heading as it passes over
Ireland and the UK on Monday. The dynamical guidance remains in
very good agreement on the track of Ophelia, and very little change
has been made to the track forecast.

Since Ophelia will be post-tropical as it approaches Ireland and the
UK, strong winds and rain will arrive over land areas sooner than
the center. For more information on local impacts, consult products
from local meteorological services in Ireland and the United Kingdom
for more information.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Ophelia is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone with
hurricane force winds while it moves near Ireland and the United
Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions of
these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions. For
more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts from
post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to products
issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom should
refer to products issued by the Met Office.

2. Individuals are urged to not focus on the exact track of Ophelia
since strong winds and heavy rainfall will extend well outside of
the NHC forecast cone.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 44.6N 13.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 49.2N 11.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 16/1800Z 54.3N 7.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 17/0600Z 58.5N 2.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2017-10-16 09:46

WTNT42 KNHC 151445
TCDAT2

Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 AM AST Sun Oct 15 2017

After displaying a distinct eye overnight, recent satellite imagery
indicate that the cloud pattern of Ophelia has begun to deteriorate
and the eye is no longer apparent. The deep convection is also
weakening fast and consequently, Dvorak numbers have begun to
decrease while analysts are trying to lower them as much as the
technique allows. The best estimate of the initial intensity is 80
kt. Given the cold waters of about 20 deg C, and the strong shear,
Ophelia is forecast to gradually weaken and become a post-tropical
cyclone later today.

Satellite fixes indicate that Ophelia is moving toward the
north-northeast or 025 degrees at 33 kt, well embedded within the
fast flow ahead of a large trough. This pattern is expected to
persist, so no significant change in track is anticipated before
dissipation. Guidance continues to be in remarkably good agreement
and most of the models bring a weakened post-tropical Ophelia to the
southern coast of Ireland Monday morning (AST or Miami time).
Thereafter, the cyclone will continue over northern Great Britain
until dissipation.

Strong winds and rains associated with Post-Tropical Ophelia will
arrive well in advance of the cyclone center. Residents in those
locations should consult products from their local meteorological
service for more information on local impacts.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Ophelia is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone with
hurricane force winds while it moves near Ireland and the United
Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions of
these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions. For
more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts from
post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to products
issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom should
refer to products issued by the Met Office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 41.6N 16.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 46.0N 13.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 16/1200Z 51.5N 9.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 17/0000Z 57.0N 5.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 17/1200Z 60.5N 1.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

2017-10-16 09:46

WTNT42 KNHC 150900
TCDAT2

Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 AM AST Sun Oct 15 2017

Although the satellite appearance of Ophelia has been slowly
degrading this morning, the cyclone remains an impressive hurricane
due to it being over the relatively cool waters of the northeastern
Atlantic. A testament to Ophelia's strength is a late arriving buoy
report 25 nmi southeast of the center of the eye from around 0200Z,
which indicated that the pressure in the southeastern portion of the
large eye or eyewall was 970.9 mb. However, Dvorak intensity
estimates have been steadily decreasing since that buoy report, so
the intensity has been lowered to 90 kt for this advisory.

Ophelia continues to accelerate and the hurricane is now moving
050/30 kt. Water vapor imagery indicates that a deepening trough
just to west of Ophelia is moving quickly eastward, and that the
cyclone is now well embedded within the deep-layer southwesterly
flow on the east side of the trough. As a result, Ophelia is
expected to turn toward the north-northeast by tonight and be
accompanied by a slight increase in forward speed. The NHC model
guidance remains in excellent agreement on Ophelia reaching the
southern coast of Ireland in 24-30 hours, and then move across
the remainder of the country Monday night, and then move across
Northern Ireland and northern Great Britain on Tuesday.

Ophelia is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by 24 hours
when extratropical transition should be completed, although the
transition to an extratropical cyclone could occur as early as 12
hours. Regardless of the exact timing, post-tropical cyclone Ophelia
is forecast to remain a powerful storm with hurricane-force winds
when it reaches Ireland on Monday. The system is forecast to
occlude and interact with land, which should cause a faster rate of
weakening in 48 to 72 hours, with dissipation expected shortly
thereafter.

Although the center of Ophelia is not forecast to reach Ireland or
the UK until Monday, strong winds and rains will arrive well in
advance of the cyclone center. Residents in those locations should
consult products from their local meteorological service for more
information on local impacts.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Ophelia is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone with
hurricane force winds Monday while it moves near Ireland and the
United Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions
of these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions.
For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts
from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to
products issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom
should refer to products issued by the Met Office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 39.0N 18.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 43.0N 15.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 49.0N 11.5W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 16/1800Z 54.0N 8.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 17/0600Z 57.7N 4.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 18/0600Z 60.8N .1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2017-10-16 09:46

WTNT42 KNHC 150240
TCDAT2

Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 PM AST Sat Oct 14 2017

Ophelia remains an impressive hurricane in infrared satellite
imagery. The hurricane continues to exhibit a large well-defined
eye within a ring of cold cloud tops. However, the overall cloud
pattern has started to elongate and there has been a slight erosion
of the area of cloud tops over the west and southwest portions of
the circulation as dry air and a frontal boundary encroaches on the
hurricane. Satellite intensity estimates from all agencies
continue to support an intensity of 100 kt. The aforementioned
changes in the cloud pattern and an expansion of the wind field as
noted by an earlier ASCAT overpass suggest that extratropical
transition has begun. The wind field is expect to significantly
expand over the next 12 to 24 hours, which is likely to lead to a
gradual decrease in the maximum winds. Ophelia is forecast to
complete extratropical transition within 24 hours, but it is
expected to remain a powerful post-tropical cyclone with
hurricane-force winds as it approaches Ireland on Monday. The
system is forecast to occlude and interact with land, which
should cause a faster rate of weakening in 48 to 72 hours, with
dissipation expected shortly thereafter.

Ophelia is moving northeastward, or 055/24 kt ahead of a
mid-latitude trough moving over the northeastern Atlantic. The
hurricane should continue to accelerate northeastward tonight, then
turn north-northeastward with an additional increase in forward
speed by late Sunday and Sunday night. After the system occludes in
a couple of days, it should begin to slow down. The track guidance
is in good agreement, and the updated NHC track forecast is very
close to the previous advisory.

Although the center of Ophelia is not forecast to reach Ireland or
the UK until Monday, wind and rains will arrive well in advance of
the cyclone center. Residents in those locations should consult
products from their local meteorological service for more
information on local impacts.

Tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores
tonight behind a cold front that has moved through the islands in
the wake of Ophelia. Interests in the Azores should refer to
products issued by the Azores Weather Forecast and Watch Center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Ophelia is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone with
hurricane force winds Monday while it moves near Ireland and the
United Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions
of these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions.
For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts
from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to
products issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom
should refer to products issued by the Met Office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 37.3N 21.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 40.1N 17.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 45.7N 13.8W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 16/1200Z 51.4N 10.6W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 17/0000Z 56.0N 7.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 18/0000Z 60.0N 2.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

2017-10-16 09:46

WTNT42 KNHC 142037
TCDAT2

Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 PM AST Sat Oct 14 2017

Ophelia continues to have an impressive appearance in satellite
imagery. The eye has remained clear all afternoon, surrounded by a
very symmetric ring of cold cloud tops. Since the cloud pattern has
not changed significantly over the past few hours, the intensity has
been held at 100 kt. Microwave imagery and scatterometer retrievals
indicate that beneath the cold canopy, Ophelia's structure is
beginning to deteriorate, at least slightly. A GMI overpass around
1700 UTC indicated that the vortex is beginning to tilt toward the
east with height, probably a result of increasing southwesterly
shear associated with a large upper-level trough to the west.
Furthermore, a pair of earlier ASCAT passes suggested that an
approaching cold front is already infringing on the NW quadrant of
the circulation, within about 80 n mi of Ophelia's eye. Given the
close proximity of the cold front and upper-level trough,
extratropical transition will likely begin within about 12 hours. A
favorable baroclinic environment may allow the cyclone to deepen as
the wind field increases in size, so only a slight decrease of the
maximum wind is expected through 36 hours. After that time, the
post-tropical cyclone will likely occlude and interact with land,
causing a faster rate of weakening and resulting in the eventual
dissipation of the surface circulation in about 96 hours.

Ophelia continues to pick up forward speed and the initial motion
estimate is now 055/24 kt. The hurricane remains embedded within
the southwesterly flow ahead of the aforementioned mid-latitude
trough, and this will keep Ophelia on a northeast or north-northeast
heading through the next 72 hours. The track guidance remains in
fairly good agreement, though it has shifted southward a little for
the first 24 hours. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted in
that direction, and is close to the GFS/ECMWF consensus throughout
the forecast period.

Although the center of Ophelia is not forecast to reach Ireland or
the UK until Monday, wind and rains will arrive well in advance of
the cyclone center. Individuals in those locations should consult
products from their local meteorological service for more
information on local impacts.

Tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores
after Ophelia passes to the south and east tonight as a cold front
moves through the islands. Interests in the Azores should refer to
products issued by the Azores Weather Forecast and Watch Center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Ophelia is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone with
hurricane force winds Monday while it moves near Ireland and the
United Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions
of these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions.
For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts
from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to
products issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom
should refer to products issued by the Met Office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 35.9N 23.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 38.0N 20.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 42.8N 15.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 48.8N 12.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 16/1800Z 54.0N 9.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 17/1800Z 59.5N 3.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2017-10-16 09:46

WTNT42 KNHC 141438
TCDAT2

Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 14 2017

During the past few hours, Ophelia's satellite presentation has
improved significantly. The eye has become even more distinct
with a temperature of 16 deg C, and has been surrounded by very
deep convection. T-numbers from TAFB and SAB have reached 5.5 on the
Dvorak scale, and the objective numbers from CIMMS have been
oscillating around T5.8 and T5.9 recently. Based on these estimates,
the initial intensity has been increased conservatively to 100 kt,
making Ophelia a category 3 hurricane on the SSHS. Ophelia is a
quite intense and rare hurricane for its location in the
northeastern Atlantic. Increasing shear and cold waters will
soon begin to impact Ophelia, and the hurricane should begin to
acquire extratropical characteristics in about 36 hours or sooner.
Although some weakening is anticipated, Ophelia is expected to reach
the British Isles as a powerful extratropical cyclone with hurricane
force winds. Dissipation is forecast in about 4 days after the
system moved over these Isles.

Satellite fixes indicate that Ophelia is moving toward the northeast
or 055 degrees at 22 kt. The hurricane is well embedded within the
southwesterly flow associated with the southern extension of a large
mid-latitude trough, and this pattern should continue to steer the
cyclone northeastward and north-northeastward with increasing
forward speed for the next 2 to 3 days until dissipation. Track
models are in excellent agreement and the guidance envelope is quite
tight. The NHC forecast is not different from previous ones, and it
is very close to the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA and the
multi-model ensemble TVCX.

Given that Ophelia is forecast to become extratropical, the wind
field should expand, resulting in impacts over portions of the
British Isles regardless of its exact location or strength.

Although the center of Ophelia is not forecast to reach Ireland or
the UK for another couple of days, wind and rains will arrive
well in advance of the cyclone center. Individuals in those
locations should consult products from their local meteorological
service for more information on local impacts.

Tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores
after Ophelia passes to the south and east later today and tonight
as a cold front moves through the islands. Interests in the Azores
should refer to products issued by the Azores Weather Forecast and
Watch Center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Ophelia is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone with
hurricane force winds Monday while it moves near Ireland and the
United Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions
of these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions.
For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts
from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to
products issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom
should refer to products issued by the Met Office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 34.8N 26.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 36.5N 23.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 40.5N 18.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 46.5N 14.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 16/1200Z 51.5N 11.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 17/1200Z 59.0N 6.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

2017-10-16 09:46

WTNT42 KNHC 140858
TCDAT2

Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 AM AST Sat Oct 14 2017

Ophelia's 20-nmi-diameter eye has continued to become more distinct
and cloud-free, with the eye temperature now reaching 15 deg C.
Satellite intensity estimates range from T4.5/77 kt from TAFB to
T5.0/90 kt from SAB and T5.5/102 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. For now, the
initial intensity will remain at 85 kt, which is an average of the
available intensity estimates.

The initial motion estimate is 060/21 kt. Ophelia is embedded within
deep-layer southwesterly flow on the east side of a broad
mid-latitude trough. The global and regional models remain in
excellent agreement on the trough amplifying over the next 3-4 days,
which will cause the hurricane to accelerate toward the northeast at
forward speeds near 30 kt by 48 hours. The tight clustering of the
NHC model guidance, which shows very little cross-track or
along-track spread, increases the confidence in the official track.
As a result, no significant changes were made to the previous
advisory, and the new forecast track remains near the middle of the
guidance envelope, close to the HCCA and TVCX consensus models.

Ophelia is expected to remain in relatively low vertical wind shear
environment for the next 12 hours or so, which should help the
hurricane retain much of its current intensity during that time,
even though SSTs are only going to be 24-25C. However, upper-level
temperatures that are still about 2 deg C cooler than normal, which
will help to create sufficient instability to continue to drive the
development of inner-core convection. By 36 hours or so, the shear
is forecast to increase to 30-40 kt and the troposphere is expected
to become stable as sea-surface temperatures decrease to less than
20 deg C. However, even those SST values are about 2 deg C warmer
than normal for this time of the year. Those above-average ocean
temperatures are forecast to combine with strong baroclinic energy
associated with a potent, negatively tilted, upper-level trough,
causing Ophelia to transition into a powerful extratropical low
pressure system. By 48 hours, the post-tropical cyclone is forecast
to maintain sustained hurricane-force winds as it approaches
Ireland, with stronger winds expected over higher terrain.

Given that Ophelia is forecast to become extratropical, the wind
field should expand, resulting in impacts over portions of the
British Isles regardless of its exact location or strength. By 96
hours, Ophelia should have weakened due to the interaction with
land, causing the surface circulation to become ill-defined, and
dissipation is expected shortly thereafter.

Although the center of Ophelia is not forecast to reach Ireland or
the UK for another 48-60 hours, wind and rain effects will arrive
well in advance of the cyclone center. Individuals in those
locations should consult products from their local meteorological
service for more information on local impacts.

Tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores
beginning tonight, primarily due to an approaching cold front.
However, any track deviation to the west could bring stronger winds
associated with Ophelia's circulation to those islands. Interests
in the Azores should refer to products issued by the Azores Weather
Forecast and Watch Center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Ophelia is expected to become a hurricane-force post-tropical
cyclone by Monday before it moves near Ireland and the United
Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions of
these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions. For
more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts from
post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to products
issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom should
refer to products issued by the Met Office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 33.9N 28.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 35.3N 25.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 38.3N 20.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 43.0N 16.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 16/0600Z 48.4N 12.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 17/0600Z 57.4N 6.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 18/0600Z 63.1N .5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2017-10-16 09:46

WTNT32 KNHC 160251
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 PM AST Sun Oct 15 2017

...OPHELIA NOW POST-TROPICAL BUT STILL EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG
WINDS TO IRELAND AND THE UNITED KINGDOM ON MONDAY...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY FROM NHC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...49.2N 13.3W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SW OF MIZEN HEAD IRELAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 44 MPH...70 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann,
and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued
by the UK Met Office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Ophelia was located near latitude 49.2 North, longitude 13.3 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 44 mph
(70 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast with a decrease in
forward speed is expected on Monday, with that heading continuing
through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the
post-tropical cyclone will move near western Ireland on Monday
and then near northern Scotland Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
the post-tropical cyclone is expected to dissipate near western
Norway by Tuesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275
miles (445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Gale-force winds are expected to begin across southern
Ireland during the next few hours and gradually spread northward
across the country during the day on Monday. Hurricane-force winds
are forecast to reach the southern portions of Ireland by Monday
afternoon. Strong winds will then spread across the remainder of
Ireland and parts of the United Kingdom into Monday night.
Preparations to protect lives and property should be complete.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to
3 inches (50 mm to 75 mm) with isolated totals near 4 inches (100
mm) through Tuesday across western Ireland and Scotland. Across
eastern Ireland, rainfall amounts will average around 1 inch (25 mm)
or less.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center of the post-tropical cyclone makes landfall. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO
header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/.

Local forecasts and warnings for Ireland can be found on the
website of Met Eireann, the Irish Meteorological Service, at
http://www.met.ie/.

Local forecasts and warnings for the United Kingdom can be found on
the website of the UK Met Office at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/.

$$
Forecaster Berg

2017-10-16 09:46

WTNT32 KNHC 152041
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 PM AST Sun Oct 15 2017

...OPHELIA STILL A HURRICANE BUT EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.6N 13.3W
ABOUT 840 MI...1355 KM NE OF THE AZORES
ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM SSW OF MIZEN HEAD IRELAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 38 MPH...61 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann,
and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued
by the UK Met Office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ophelia was
located near latitude 44.6 North, longitude 13.3 West. Ophelia is
moving toward the north-northeast near 38 mph (61 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Monday. On the
forecast track, the center of Ophelia will cross over Ireland on
Monday, however strong winds and rain will extend far from the
center.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Ophelia is expected to be a hurricane-force post-tropical
cyclone when it nears the coast of Ireland on Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles
(405 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Gale-force winds are expected to begin across southern
Ireland by early Monday morning and gradually spread northward
across the country during the day. Hurricane-force winds are
expected to reach the southern portions of Ireland by Monday
afternoon. Strong winds will then spread inland across the
Ireland and parts of the UK into Monday night. Preparations to
protect lives and property should be nearing completion.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to
3 inches (50 mm to 75 mm) with isolated totals near 4 inches (100
mm) through Tuesday across western Ireland and Scotland. Across
eastern Ireland, rainfall amounts will average around 1 inch (25 mm)
or less.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center of the post-tropical cyclone makes landfall. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2017-10-16 09:46

WTNT32 KNHC 151443
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 AM AST Sun Oct 15 2017

...OPHELIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A STRONG POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.6N 16.0W
ABOUT 635 MI...1020 KM ENE OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 38 MPH...61 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann,
and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued
by the UK Met Office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ophelia was
located near latitude 41.6 North, longitude 16.0 West. Ophelia is
moving toward the north-northeast near 38 mph (61 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue during the next 24 to 48 hours. On
the forecast track, the center of the post-tropical cyclone will
approach Ireland tomorrow morning. However, strong winds and rains
should begin earlier.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, but Ophelia should
maintain hurricane force winds until it reaches Ireland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Gale-force winds are expected to begin across southern
Ireland by early Monday morning and gradually spread northward
across the country during the day. Hurricane-force winds are
expected to reach the southern portions of Ireland by Monday
afternoon and spread inland across the country into Monday night.
Preparations to protect lives and property should be rushed to
completion by this afternoon.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to
3 inches (50 mm to 75 mm) with isolated totals near 4 inches (100
mm) through Tuesday across western Ireland and Scotland. Across
eastern Ireland, rainfall amounts will average around 1 inch (25 mm)
or less.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center of the post-tropical cyclone makes landfall. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

2017-10-16 09:46

WTNT32 KNHC 150840
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 AM AST Sun Oct 15 2017

...OPHELIA NOW TAKING AIM ON IRELAND...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.0N 18.3W
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM E OF THE AZORES
ABOUT 965 MI...1550 KM SSW OF MIZEN HEAD IRELAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann,
and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued
by the UK Met Office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ophelia was
located near latitude 39.0 North, longitude 18.3 West. Ophelia is
moving toward the northeast near 35 mph (56 km/h). A continued
northeastward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected
today, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast tonight. On the
forecast track, the center of Ophelia will approach Ireland on
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is expected today and
on Monday, but Ophelia is forecast to become a powerful
post-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds as it approaches
Ireland on Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches).
Ophelia's eye recently passed near a drifting buoy that measured a
pressure of 970.9 mb (28.67 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Gale-force winds are expected to begin across southern
Ireland by early Monday morning and gradually spread northward
across the country during the day. Hurricane-force winds are
expected to reach the southern portions of Ireland by Monday
afternoon and spread inland across the country into Monday night.
Preparations to protect lives and property should be rushed to
completion by this afternoon.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to
3 inches (50 mm to 75 mm) with isolated totals near 4 inches (100
mm) through Tuesday across western Ireland and Scotland. Across
eastern Ireland, rainfall amounts will average around 1 inch (25 mm)
or less.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2017-10-16 09:46

WTNT32 KNHC 150239
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 PM AST Sat Oct 14 2017

...LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE OPHELIA PASSING EAST OF THE AZORES...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY SUNDAY NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.3N 21.5W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM E OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should refer to products issued by the
Azores Weather Forecast and Watch Center.

Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann,
and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued
by the UK Met Office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ophelia was
located near latitude 37.3 North, longitude 21.5 West. Ophelia is
moving toward the northeast near 28 mph (44 km/h). A continued
northeast motion with an increase in forward speed is expected
tonight and Sunday, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast
Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Ophelia will
continue to pass east of the Azores tonight, and approach Ireland
on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Ophelia is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin
later tonight, but Ophelia is forecast to become a post-tropical
cyclone with hurricane-force winds as it approaches Ireland on
Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores
through tonight, primarily due to a cold front that has passed
through the islands.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2017-10-16 09:46

WTNT32 KNHC 142036
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 PM AST Sat Oct 14 2017

...EYE OF HURRICANE OPHELIA PASSING SOUTH OF THE AZORES...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.9N 23.7W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SE OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should refer to products issued by the
Azores Weather Forecast and Watch Center.

Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann,
and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued
by the UK Met Office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the clear eye of Hurricane Ophelia was
located near latitude 35.9 North, longitude 23.7 West. Ophelia is
moving toward the northeast near 28 mph (44 km/h). A continued
northeast motion with an increase in forward speed is expected
tonight and Sunday, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast
Sunday night. On the forecast track, the core of Ophelia will
continue to pass south and east of the Azores tonight.

Satellite data indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 115
mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Ophelia is a category 3 hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in
strength is expected tonight, but the hurricane is likely to become
post-tropical by early Monday morning, if not sooner. Ophelia is
forecast to remain a powerful cyclone with hurricane-force winds
as it approaches Ireland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km). The wind field of Ophelia is forecast to expand
substantially and wind and rain effects in Ireland and the UK are
expected to reach the coast well before the arrival of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores
through tonight, primarily due to a cold front currently passing
through the islands.

RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 3 inches over the central and southeastern Azores through
Saturday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2017-10-16 09:46

WTNT32 KNHC 141438
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 14 2017

...OPHELIA BECOMES A RARE CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE SOUTH OF THE
AZORES...
...THIS IS THE SIXTH MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2017 SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.8N 26.6W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM S OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should refer to products issued by the
Azores Weather Forecast and Watch Center.

Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann,
and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued
by the UK Met Office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Ophelia was
located near latitude 34.8 North, longitude 26.6 West. Ophelia is
moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this motion
is expected continue through Sunday with a turn toward the
north-northeast thereafter. On the forecast track, the core of
Ophelia will pass to the south and southeast of the southeastern
Azores by tonight.

Satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Ophelia is a
category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
No significant change in strength is expected today, but gradual
weakening should begin tonight or Sunday. However, Ophelia is still
expected to remain a powerful cyclone with hurricane force winds for
the next couple of days as it approaches Ireland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores
beginning this afternoon or tonight, primarily due to an approaching
cold front.

RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 3 inches over the central and southeastern Azores through
Saturday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

2017-10-16 09:46

WTNT32 KNHC 140853
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 AM AST Sat Oct 14 2017

...CENTER OF CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE OPHELIA EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AZORES THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 28.6W
ABOUT 295 MI...480 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should refer to products issued by the
Azores Weather Forecast and Watch Center.

Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann,
and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued
by the UK Met Office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ophelia was
located near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 28.6 West. Ophelia is
moving toward the east-northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h), and a
continued east-northeast motion with an increase in forward speed
is forecast through this evening. A turn toward the northeast is
expected on Sunday. On the forecast track, the core of Ophelia
will pass to the south and southeast of the southeastern Azores
by tonight or early Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Ophelia is a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected today,
followed by slow weakening on Monday and Tuesday. However Ophelia
is still expected to remain a powerful cyclone for the next couple
of days as it approaches Ireland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores
beginning this afternoon or tonight, primarily due to an approaching
cold front.

RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches over the southeastern Azores through Saturday
night. During the same time, a cold front and moisture associated
with Ophelia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to
3 inches over the other islands of the Azores. This rainfall could
produce flooding, especially over the southeastern Azores.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2017-10-16 09:46

WTNT22 KNHC 160251
TCMAT2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017
0300 UTC MON OCT 16 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN IRELAND SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY MET
EIREANN... AND INTERESTS IN THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 49.2N 13.3W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 38 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 60SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 120SE 120SW 80NW.
34 KT.......150NE 240SE 240SW 210NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 400SE 660SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 49.2N 13.3W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 47.6N 13.4W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 53.2N 10.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 60SE 70SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 140SE 140SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 240SE 240SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 57.4N 5.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT...110NE 140SE 140SW 120NW.
34 KT...220NE 290SE 290SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 61.9N .1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...200NE 270SE 270SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 49.2N 13.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO
HEADER FQNT21 EGRR.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

2017-10-16 09:46

WTNT22 KNHC 152041
TCMAT2

HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017
2100 UTC SUN OCT 15 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN IRELAND SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY MET
EIREANN...AND INTERESTS IN THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.6N 13.3W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 33 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 50SE 50SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 100SE 100SW 60NW.
34 KT.......100NE 220SE 220SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 240SE 660SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.6N 13.3W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.1N 14.3W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 49.2N 11.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 70SE 80SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 150SE 150SW 100NW.
34 KT...180NE 250SE 220SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 54.3N 7.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...140NE 150SE 150SW 140NW.
34 KT...230NE 300SE 300SW 230NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 58.5N 2.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...200NE 270SE 270SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 44.6N 13.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2017-10-16 09:46

WTNT22 KNHC 151442
TCMAT2

HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017
1500 UTC SUN OCT 15 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN IRELAND SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY MET
EIREANN...AND INTERESTS IN THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.6N 16.0W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 33 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 70SE 70SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 130SE 130SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 200SE 600SW 320NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.6N 16.0W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.1N 16.9W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 46.0N 13.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 70SE 70SW 50NW.
50 KT... 70NE 120SE 120SW 95NW.
34 KT...150NE 240SE 180SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 51.5N 9.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 90SE 100SW 0NW.
50 KT...180NE 180SE 210SW 180NW.
34 KT...240NE 270SE 270SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 57.0N 5.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT...150NE 210SE 90SW 150NW.
34 KT...360NE 360SE 300SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 60.5N 1.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.6N 16.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

2017-10-16 09:46

WTNT22 KNHC 150840
TCMAT2

HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017
0900 UTC SUN OCT 15 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN IRELAND SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY MET
EIREANN... AND INTERESTS IN THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.0N 18.3W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 30 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 70SE 70SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 130SE 130SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 180SE 480SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.0N 18.3W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 19.7W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 43.0N 15.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE 160SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 49.0N 11.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 90SE 90SW 40NW.
50 KT...120NE 150SE 150SW 90NW.
34 KT...210NE 240SE 200SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 54.0N 8.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...180NE 210SE 180SW 120NW.
34 KT...300NE 300SE 300SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 57.7N 4.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT...120NE 180SE 180SW 120NW.
34 KT...300NE 300SE 240SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 60.8N .1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP OVR WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.0N 18.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

2017-10-16 09:46

WTNT22 KNHC 150239
TCMAT2

HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017
0300 UTC SUN OCT 15 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE
AZORES WEATHER FORECAST AND WATCH CENTER.

INTERESTS IN IRELAND SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY MET
EIREANN... AND INTERESTS IN THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 21.5W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 24 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 70SE 70SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 130SE 130SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 300SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 21.5W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 22.7W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 40.1N 17.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE 160SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 45.7N 13.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 90SE 90SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW 80NW.
34 KT...210NE 240SE 200SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 51.4N 10.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 90SE 90SW 30NW.
50 KT...180NE 210SE 180SW 120NW.
34 KT...300NE 300SE 300SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 56.0N 7.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...120NE 210SE 120SW 120NW.
34 KT...300NE 300SE 240SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 60.0N 2.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.3N 21.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

2017-10-16 09:46

WTNT22 KNHC 142036
TCMAT2

HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017
2100 UTC SAT OCT 14 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE
AZORES WEATHER FORECAST AND WATCH CENTER.

INTERESTS IN IRELAND SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY MET
EIREANN... AND INTERESTS IN THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 23.7W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 24 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 60SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 110SE 110SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 300SW 400NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 23.7W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 25.1W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 38.0N 20.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 120SE 140SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 42.8N 15.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 160SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 48.8N 12.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
50 KT... 90NE 140SE 140SW 90NW.
34 KT...240NE 280SE 240SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 54.0N 9.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.
34 KT...250NE 300SE 250SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 59.5N 3.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...200NE 270SE 270SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.9N 23.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2017-10-16 09:46

WTNT22 KNHC 141437
TCMAT2

HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017
1500 UTC SAT OCT 14 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE
AZORES WEATHER FORECAST AND WATCH CENTER.

INTERESTS IN IRELAND SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY MET
EIREANN... AND INTERESTS IN THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY THE UK MET OFFICE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 26.6W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 60SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 110SE 110SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 200SE 210SW 400NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 26.6W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 27.7W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 36.5N 23.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 110SE 110SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 40.5N 18.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 25SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 46.5N 14.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 70SE 65SW 35NW.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 210SE 220SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 51.5N 11.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 170SE 150SW 160NW.
34 KT...230NE 270SE 240SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 59.0N 6.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...270NE 330SE 240SW 210NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.8N 26.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

2017-10-16 09:46

WTNT22 KNHC 140853
TCMAT2

HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017
0900 UTC SAT OCT 14 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE
AZORES WEATHER FORECAST AND WATCH CENTER.

INTERESTS IN IRELAND SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY MET
EIREANN... AND INTERESTS IN THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 28.6W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 210SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 28.6W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 29.7W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 35.3N 25.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 38.3N 20.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 25SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 43.0N 16.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 180SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 48.4N 12.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
34 KT...210NE 240SE 240SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 57.4N 6.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...300NE 360SE 300SW 240NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 63.1N .5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.9N 28.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

2017-10-12 09:01

WTNT42 KNHC 120840
TCDAT2

Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 AM AST Thu Oct 12 2017

Satellite imagery indicates that Ophelia continues to gradually
become better organized, with the hurricane maintaining a
well-defined eye and the cloud tops in the eyewall gradually
cooling. The various subjective and objective satellite intensity
estimates range between 75-90 kt, and based on the previous trend of
the intensity being near the lower end of the estimates, the initial
intensity is kept at a possibly conservative 75 kt.

The initial motion is 040/3. Ophelia is currently in an area of
light steering currents to the south of the mid-latitude
westerlies. The large-scale models forecast a deep-layer trough to
amplify over the central and northeastern Atlantic during the
forecast period, which should steer Ophelia northeastward or
east-northeastward at an increasing forward speed for the next few
days. The track guidance has changed little since the last
advisory, and the new forecast track, which leans toward the HFIP
Corrected Consensus and the Florida State Superensemble, is an
update of the previous forecast.

Ophelia is forecast to remain in a light to moderate shear
environment and over marginal sea surface temperatures for the next
24-36 h, and the intensity forecast shows some strengthening during
this time in agreement with the guidance. After that, the hurricane
is expected to move over cooler water. As that happens, though,
interaction with the above-mentioned westerly trough should help
Ophelia keep its intensity. Extratropical transition should begin
by 72 h, with Ophelia likely to become a hurricane-force baroclinic
low by 96 h. The guidance is in good agreement that Ophelia should
affect Ireland, northern Ireland and Great Britain between 96-120 h
as a powerful extratropical low.

Although the track guidance keeps the center offshore of the
Azores, a tropical storm watch or warning could be needed for the
eastern Azores on Thursday because of the forecasted increase in
wind radii in the northwestern quadrant of the cyclone.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 30.3N 35.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 30.7N 35.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 31.3N 34.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 32.2N 32.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 33.7N 28.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 38.5N 20.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 49.0N 13.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 17/0600Z 59.0N 7.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

2017-10-12 09:01

WTNT32 KNHC 120839
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 AM AST Thu Oct 12 2017

...OPHELIA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 35.6W
ABOUT 725 MI...1165 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the eastern Azores should monitor the progress of
Ophelia.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ophelia was
located near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 35.6 West. Ophelia is
moving toward the northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). This general
motion is expected today, followed a by faster motion toward the
east-northeast or northeast on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible over the next day or
two.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

2017-10-12 09:01

WTNT22 KNHC 120838
TCMAT2

HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017
0900 UTC THU OCT 12 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OPHELIA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 35.6W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 20SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 30SE 25SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 35.6W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 35.7W

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 30.7N 35.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 31.3N 34.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 32.2N 32.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 15SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 110SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 33.7N 28.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 120SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 38.5N 20.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 160SE 180SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 49.0N 13.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 59.0N 7.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.3N 35.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

2017-10-12 04:16

WTNT80 EGRR 120403

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 12.10.2017

HURRICANE OPHELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 29.9N 35.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172017

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 12.10.2017 29.9N 35.9W MODERATE
12UTC 12.10.2017 30.4N 35.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.10.2017 31.0N 34.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.10.2017 31.7N 33.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.10.2017 33.0N 31.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 14.10.2017 34.2N 27.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 15.10.2017 36.1N 22.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.10.2017 40.5N 18.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.10.2017 45.5N 18.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.10.2017 49.8N 14.7W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.10.2017 POST-TROPICAL

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 14.1N 119.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.10.2017 14.1N 119.7W WEAK
00UTC 16.10.2017 16.2N 122.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.10.2017 16.4N 124.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.10.2017 18.2N 127.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.10.2017 20.6N 131.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 18.10.2017 22.9N 132.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 32.3N 64.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 18.10.2017 33.8N 61.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 120403

2017-10-12 02:46

WTNT42 KNHC 120238
TCDAT2

Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 PM AST Wed Oct 11 2017

Satellite images indicate that Ophelia continues to get better
organized. The small eye has become better defined with deeper
convection near the center than 6 hours ago. Intensity estimates
have continued to rise, and the objective/subjective Dvorak values
range from 77 kt to 90 kt. The initial intensity is increased to
75 kt, on the low end of the estimates since Ophelia is over
marginal water temperatures and might not be as strong as the
satellite suggests. Further strengthening is possible given the
fairly low shear environment and marginally warm SSTs, assuming the
hurricane moves around enough to not upwell much cooler water.
Ophelia should keep hurricane-force winds before it transitions into
a strong extratropical low in 3-4 days. The intensity forecast is
higher than the previous one, near the model consensus. Almost all
of the guidance now show Ophelia as a powerful extratropical low
affecting Ireland, northern Ireland and Great Britain early next
week.

The hurricane is moving slowly toward the northeast, caught in an
area of light steering south of a flat trough in the mid-latitude
Atlantic. This trough is forecast to amplify over the central
Atlantic late Thursday, which should steer Ophelia northeastward or
east-northeastward at an increasing forward speed for the next few
days. Little change was made to the forecast track, leaning on the
ECMWF side of the consensus, which results in generally a faster
track than the previous prediction.

Although all of the guidance keep the center offshore of the
Azores, a tropical storm watch or warning could be needed for the
eastern Azores on Thursday because of the increasing wind radii in
the northwestern quadrant of the cyclone.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 30.0N 35.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 30.4N 35.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 30.9N 34.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 31.7N 32.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 32.8N 30.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 37.0N 22.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 46.0N 14.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 17/0000Z 56.5N 8.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake

2017-10-12 02:46

WTNT32 KNHC 120237
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 PM AST Wed Oct 11 2017

...OPHELIA STRENGTHENING OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 35.7W
ABOUT 745 MI...1195 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the eastern Azores should monitor the progress of
Ophelia.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ophelia was
located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 35.7 West. Ophelia is
moving toward the northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). This general
motion is expected on Thursday, followed by faster motion toward
the east-northeast or northeast on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible over the
next day or two.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

2017-10-12 02:46

WTNT22 KNHC 120237
TCMAT2

HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017
0300 UTC THU OCT 12 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OPHELIA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 35.7W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 20SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 30SE 25SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 35.7W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 35.8W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 30.4N 35.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 30.9N 34.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 31.7N 32.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 15SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 110SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 32.8N 30.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 120SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 37.0N 22.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 160SE 180SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 46.0N 14.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 56.5N 8.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.0N 35.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

2017-10-11 20:46

WTNT42 KNHC 112031
TCDAT2

Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 PM AST Wed Oct 11 2017

Intensity estimates for Ophelia still range wildly. Dvorak
estimates, both subjective and objective, continue to support a much
higher intensity than other satellite-derived maximum wind
estimates. Adding to the uncertainty, subjective Dvorak
classifications at 1800 UTC were higher than 6 hours prior, but
since that time, the ragged eye has become obscured in IR imagery.
However, a recent SSMIS pass at 1813 UTC indicated that the
convective structure of the cyclone has improved during the day, so
it wouldn't be surprising if the eye became apparent again shortly.
In an attempt to blend all available data, the initial intensity has
been increased to 65 kt, making Ophelia a hurricane. However, it
should be stressed that the uncertainty of the initial intensity is
higher than normal.

The hurricane is moving slowly toward the east and the initial
motion estimate is 090/3 kt. The hurricane is embedded within weak
steering flow, and only a slow northeastward drift is expected for
the next 24 h. After that time, an approaching deep-layer trough
should force Ophelia to accelerate toward the northeast. All of the
deterministic models are in fairly good agreement on the speed and
track of Ophelia, however the various model ensembles suggest that
the uncertainty is much higher, especially regarding the forward
speed of Ophelia beyond 48 h. The official track forecast favors
the deterministic model solutions, in part to maintain continuity
with the previous advisory. The track forecast is therefore close
to the multi-model consensus, but much faster than the various
ensemble mean aids.

Since it isn't clear exactly how strong Ophelia is, the intensity
forecast is low confidence. All of the intensity guidance indicates
that strengthening is likely for the next 24 to 36 hours, however
the near stationary motion of the hurricane could induce some
upwelling and limit the extent to which the hurricane may
strengthen. Around 72 hours, the shear should begin to increase
substantially as Ophelia begins to interact with the approaching
trough, and extratropical transition will likely begin, accompanied
by a broadening of the wind field and a gradual decrease of the
maximum winds. The global models indicate that this process will
complete by 96 h. The new NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher
than the previous forecast, but lies on the lower end of the
intensity guidance for the first 72 h. It is near the consensus
aids thereafter.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 30.0N 36.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 30.3N 35.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 30.7N 35.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 31.4N 34.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 32.3N 31.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 35.5N 24.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 43.0N 16.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 16/1800Z 53.5N 10.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2017-10-11 20:46

WTNT32 KNHC 112030
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 PM AST Wed Oct 11 2017

...OPHELIA BECOMES THE 10TH HURRICANE OF THE 2017 SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 36.1W
ABOUT 760 MI...1220 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ophelia was
located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 36.1 West. Ophelia is
moving toward the east near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow northeast drift
is expected tonight and tomorrow, followed by an acceleration
toward the east-northeast or northeast.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible over the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2017-10-11 20:46

WTNT22 KNHC 112030
TCMAT2

HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017
2100 UTC WED OCT 11 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 36.1W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 50SE 60SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 80NE 80SE 90SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 36.1W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 36.2W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 30.3N 35.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 30.7N 35.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 31.4N 34.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 20SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 32.3N 31.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 35.5N 24.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 140SE 140SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 43.0N 16.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 53.5N 10.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.0N 36.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2017-10-11 16:16

WTNT82 EGRR 111604

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 11.10.2017

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 30.0N 36.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.10.2017 0 30.0N 36.6W 993 43
0000UTC 12.10.2017 12 30.0N 35.9W 990 43
1200UTC 12.10.2017 24 30.8N 36.0W 988 44
0000UTC 13.10.2017 36 31.2N 35.6W 988 50
1200UTC 13.10.2017 48 32.1N 34.0W 986 55
0000UTC 14.10.2017 60 33.3N 31.0W 979 61
1200UTC 14.10.2017 72 34.9N 27.0W 966 70
0000UTC 15.10.2017 84 36.9N 22.2W 962 71
1200UTC 15.10.2017 96 41.1N 17.3W 961 75
0000UTC 16.10.2017 108 45.7N 15.0W 957 75
1200UTC 16.10.2017 120 50.5N 11.0W 961 57
0000UTC 17.10.2017 132 POST-TROPICAL

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 15.6N 121.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.10.2017 108 15.6N 121.3W 1005 24
1200UTC 16.10.2017 120 17.5N 124.0W 1005 27
0000UTC 17.10.2017 132 19.2N 126.5W 1004 36
1200UTC 17.10.2017 144 21.3N 128.7W 1004 41


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 111603

2017-10-11 16:16

WTNT80 EGRR 111603

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 11.10.2017

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 30.0N 36.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172017

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 11.10.2017 30.0N 36.6W MODERATE
00UTC 12.10.2017 30.0N 35.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.10.2017 30.8N 36.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.10.2017 31.2N 35.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.10.2017 32.1N 34.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.10.2017 33.3N 31.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 14.10.2017 34.9N 27.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 15.10.2017 36.9N 22.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.10.2017 41.1N 17.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.10.2017 45.7N 15.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.10.2017 50.5N 11.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.10.2017 POST-TROPICAL

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 15.6N 121.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 16.10.2017 15.6N 121.3W WEAK
12UTC 16.10.2017 17.5N 124.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.10.2017 19.2N 126.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.10.2017 21.3N 128.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 111603

2017-10-11 14:46

WTNT42 KNHC 111439
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 11 2017

If I only had conventional satellite imagery, I would definitely
estimate that Ophelia was a hurricane. The cyclone has a ragged eye
surrounded by deep convection and cyclonically curved bands.
Furthermore, Dvorak intensity estimates, both subjective and
objective, from all agencies are T4.0 plus. However, several ASCAT
passes during the past day or so indicate that the winds have been
lower than the winds one could assign the cyclone by using Dvorak.
Once again this morning, a pair of ASCAT passes showed winds of
less than 45 kt, but I am assuming that the ASCAT can not resolve
the sharp wind gradient typically associated with an eyewall, and
earlier SSMIS data indicated that one is present. Since we do not
have a hurricane hunter plane to give us exact measurements, we
need to compromise between the very valuable satellite-based
estimates, and the initial intensity is set at 60 kt in this
advisory.

Although the ocean is not too warm, the shear is low and the
upper-troposphere is cool. These factors should provide some
low-octane fuel favoring slight strengthening, and Ophelia is
still expected to become a hurricane at any time within the next 12
hours. Extratropical transition is likely to start between day 3 and
day 4, and Ophelia is anticipated to remain a strong cyclone over
the northeastern Atlantic.

Ophelia is moving slowly toward the east at 3 kt, embedded within
light steering currents, and little motion is expected today. A
mid-level trough is forecast to amplify west of Ophelia, and this
pattern will provide a stronger southwesterly steering flow
which eventually force the cyclone to move toward the northeast with
increasing forward speed. Most of the track models agree with this
solution increasing the confidence in the track forecast. The NHC
forecast follows very closely the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA
which has been very skillful this season.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 30.0N 36.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 29.9N 36.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 30.1N 35.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 30.8N 34.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 31.5N 33.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 34.0N 26.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 40.0N 17.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 16/1200Z 51.5N 12.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Avila

2017-10-11 14:46

WTNT32 KNHC 111435
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ophelia Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 11 2017

...OPHELIA LOOKS LIKE A HURRICANE ON SATELLITE BUT IT IS NOT ONE
QUITE YET...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 36.5W
ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was
located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 36.5 West. Ophelia is
moving toward the east near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this slow motion is
expected to continue today with a gradual turn to the northeast
Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast and Ophelia is anticipated to
become a hurricane at any time today or tomorrow.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

2017-10-11 14:46

WTNT22 KNHC 111434
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017
1500 UTC WED OCT 11 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 36.5W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 60SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 36.5W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 36.7W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 29.9N 36.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 30.1N 35.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 30.8N 34.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 31.5N 33.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 34.0N 26.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 40.0N 17.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 51.5N 12.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.0N 36.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

2017-10-11 08:46

WTNT42 KNHC 110836
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 AM AST Wed Oct 11 2017

Ophelia has become better organized during the past several hours,
with convective banding now wrapping almost all of the way around
the center. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have
increased to 55 kt and 65 kt, respectively, and several recent
microwave-based intensity estimates are in the 55-65 kt range.
Based on this, the initial intensity is increased to a possibly
conservative 55 kt.

The initial motion is now 125/5. Ophelia should continue to move
southeastward or east-southeastward during the next 12-24 hours with
a decrease in forward speed while it remains embedded within a mid-
to upper-level trough to the south of the mid-latitude westerlies.
After that, the cyclone is forecast to turn northeastward and
accelerate by day 3 ahead of a deepening mid-latitude trough over
the north-central Atlantic. The latest track guidance is in good
agreement with this scenario. However, there has been a significant
northward shift in the 120 h forecasts since the last advisory. The
new official forecast track is similar to the previous track through
72 h, and then is adjusted northward at the 96 and 120 h points. It
should be noted, though, that the 120 h point is to the south of the
consensus and large-scale models, and additional northward
adjustments may be required later.

The cyclone is expected to be within a low shear environment and
over marginally warm sea surface temperatures during the next 2 to 3
days. These conditions favor strengthening and the NHC forecast
now calls for Ophelia to become a hurricane in about 24 hours.
Extratropical transition is likely to start around day 4 and be
complete by day 5, with the associated baroclinic dynamics expected
to keep Ophelia a strong cyclone over the northeastern Atlantic.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 30.2N 37.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 29.9N 36.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 30.1N 35.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 30.5N 35.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 31.2N 34.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 33.5N 28.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 15/0600Z 37.5N 20.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 16/0600Z 43.0N 13.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

2017-10-11 08:46

WTNT32 KNHC 110834
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ophelia Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 AM AST Wed Oct 11 2017

...OPHELIA MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AND STRENGTHENING...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 37.0W
ABOUT 785 MI...1265 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 125 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was
located near latitude 30.2 North, longitude 37.0 West. Ophelia is
moving toward the southeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). A southeastward
to east-southeastward motion with some reduction in forward speed
is expected through Thursday, followed by a turn toward the
east-northeast by Thursday night or Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next 48 hours, and Ophelia is expected to become a hurricane
Wednesday night or Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

2017-10-11 08:46

WTNT22 KNHC 110834
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017
0900 UTC WED OCT 11 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 37.0W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 125 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 50SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 37.0W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 37.2W

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.9N 36.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 30.1N 35.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 30.5N 35.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 31.2N 34.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 33.5N 28.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 37.5N 20.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 43.0N 13.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.2N 37.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

2017-10-11 04:16

WTNT82 EGRR 110412

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 11.10.2017

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 31.0N 37.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 11.10.2017 0 31.0N 37.7W 1000 37
1200UTC 11.10.2017 12 30.3N 36.8W 995 40
0000UTC 12.10.2017 24 30.3N 36.1W 993 39
1200UTC 12.10.2017 36 30.8N 35.9W 992 41
0000UTC 13.10.2017 48 31.3N 35.3W 991 47
1200UTC 13.10.2017 60 32.0N 33.5W 989 51
0000UTC 14.10.2017 72 33.3N 30.4W 981 61
1200UTC 14.10.2017 84 34.9N 26.5W 968 70
0000UTC 15.10.2017 96 37.2N 21.8W 963 71
1200UTC 15.10.2017 108 42.4N 15.9W 967 74
0000UTC 16.10.2017 120 51.1N 12.6W 966 54
1200UTC 16.10.2017 132 POST-TROPICAL


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 110411

2017-10-11 04:16

WTNT80 EGRR 110411

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 11.10.2017

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 31.0N 37.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172017

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 11.10.2017 31.0N 37.7W MODERATE
12UTC 11.10.2017 30.3N 36.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.10.2017 30.3N 36.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.10.2017 30.8N 35.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.10.2017 31.3N 35.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.10.2017 32.0N 33.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.10.2017 33.3N 30.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 14.10.2017 34.9N 26.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 15.10.2017 37.2N 21.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.10.2017 42.4N 15.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.10.2017 51.1N 12.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.10.2017 POST-TROPICAL


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 110411

2017-10-11 02:46

WTNT42 KNHC 110236
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 PM AST Tue Oct 10 2017

Ophelia has lost some of its outer banding this evening, but a
well-defined band of convection remains over the southeastern and
southern portion of the circulation. A 2322 UTC ASCAT overpass
again suggests that the winds are not as strong what is indicated by
the Dvorak satellite estimates. The highest winds in the ASCAT pass
were 35 kt, but with some undersampling consideration the initial
intensity is set to 45 kt.

Ophelia is moving southeastward or 140/5 kt. The cyclone should
continue to move southeastward or east-southeastward during the
next 24 hours while it remains embedded within a mid- to
upper-level trough. After that time, Ophelia is forecast to turn
eastward, then northeastward and begin to accelerate by day 3 ahead
of a deepening mid-latitude trough over the north-central Atlantic.
The latest run of the GFS shifted eastward and is very similar to
the 12Z ECMWF, and the previous NHC track forecast. These
typically reliable models are along the southern edge of the track
envelope, and the NHC forecast remains there as well.

The cyclone is expected to be within a low shear environment and
over marginally warm sea surface temperatures during the next 2 to 3
days. These conditions favor strengthening and the NHC forecast
again calls for Ophelia to become a hurricane in about 36 hours,
although the forecast wind speed through 24 hours is slightly less
than the previous advisory due to the lower initial intensity.
Later in the period, baroclinic dynamics are expected to keep
Ophelia a strong cyclone over the northeastern Atlantic through day
5 when the system is forecast to become fully extratropical.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 30.7N 37.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 30.3N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 30.1N 36.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 30.2N 36.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 30.7N 35.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 14/0000Z 32.5N 30.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 15/0000Z 35.7N 23.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 16/0000Z 41.0N 14.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

2017-10-11 02:46

WTNT32 KNHC 110235
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ophelia Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 PM AST Tue Oct 10 2017

...OPHELIA MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.7N 37.6W
ABOUT 785 MI...1265 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 140 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was
located near latitude 30.7 North, longitude 37.6 West. Ophelia is
moving toward the southeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). A southeastward
to east-southeastward motion with some reduction in forward speed
is forecast over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Ophelia is forecast to become a hurricane by Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2017-10-11 02:46

WTNT22 KNHC 110235
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017
0300 UTC WED OCT 11 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 37.6W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 140 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 50SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 37.6W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 37.8W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 30.3N 37.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 30.1N 36.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 30.2N 36.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 30.7N 35.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 32.5N 30.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 35.7N 23.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 41.0N 14.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.7N 37.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

2017-10-10 20:47

WTNT42 KNHC 102039
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 PM AST Tue Oct 10 2017

The overall convective structure of Ophelia has improved markedly
over the past several, including the development of numerous,
tightly curved bands and a burst of deep convection near the center.
Upper-level anticyclonic outflow has also increased and expanded in
all quadrants. Dvorak satellite current intensity estimates are
T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and T4.0/65 kt from SAB, so the initial
intensity has been conservatively increased to 50 kt. A 28-30 kt
wind report from ship PBQL, located more 200 nmi northwest of the
center, indicates that the outer circulation is also strengthening.

The initial motion estimate is 135/04 kt. Ophelia is forecast to
continue moving southeastward at a slow but steady pace for the next
48 hours or so while the cyclone remains embedded within a broad
mid-/upper-level trough. The NHC model guidance remains in good
agreement on the Ophelia beginning to lift out to the northeast by
72 h, and then gradually accelerate into the mid-latitude westerlies
ahead of an eastward-moving mid-tropospheric trough. The latest
model guidance remains tightly packed, but it has also shifted
northward, which brings Ophelia closer to the Azores in the 96-120
hour period. However, the new forecast track was not shifted
northward and remains along the southern edge of the guidance
envelope between the NOAA HCCA consensus model and the more
southerly ECMWF model.

The GFS and ECMWF models continue to forecast only modest
intensification for the next 48-72 hours, despite the vertical wind
shear being fairly low at less than 10 kt. However, those models are
forecasting more vigorous strengthening after 96 h as Ophelia
experiences some baroclinic interaction, especially by 120 hours.
The strong baroclinic deepening on day 5 could be overdone somewhat
given that the best jetstream dynamics are forecast to be about 300
nmi northwest of the surface low and frontal zone. For now, the
official intensity forecast remains similar to the previous
advisory, and is little lower than the intensity consensus models
HCCA and IVCN and the GFS and ECMWF solutions on days 4 and 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 31.1N 38.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 30.6N 37.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 30.2N 36.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 30.2N 36.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 30.5N 35.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 32.0N 32.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 14/1800Z 34.7N 25.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 15/1800Z 39.0N 17.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2017-10-10 20:47

WTNT32 KNHC 102037
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ophelia Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 PM AST Tue Oct 10 2017

...OPHELIA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.1N 38.0W
ABOUT 785 MI...1265 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 135 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was
located near latitude 31.1 North, longitude 38.0 West. Ophelia is
moving toward the southeast near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue during the next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next
48 hours, and Ophelia is expected to become a hurricane by Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2017-10-10 20:47

WTNT22 KNHC 102037
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017
2100 UTC TUE OCT 10 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 38.0W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 135 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 38.0W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 38.2W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 30.6N 37.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 30.2N 36.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 30.2N 36.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 30.5N 35.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 32.0N 32.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 34.7N 25.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 39.0N 17.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.1N 38.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

2017-10-10 16:17

WTNT82 EGRR 101604

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 10.10.2017

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 31.6N 38.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.10.2017 0 31.6N 38.4W 996 43
0000UTC 11.10.2017 12 30.8N 37.3W 990 48
1200UTC 11.10.2017 24 30.4N 36.3W 985 49
0000UTC 12.10.2017 36 30.7N 35.9W 984 47
1200UTC 12.10.2017 48 31.1N 35.9W 985 48
0000UTC 13.10.2017 60 31.6N 35.0W 984 53
1200UTC 13.10.2017 72 32.5N 33.3W 980 58
0000UTC 14.10.2017 84 33.7N 30.4W 969 67
1200UTC 14.10.2017 96 35.3N 26.4W 964 71
0000UTC 15.10.2017 108 37.2N 22.0W 963 70
1200UTC 15.10.2017 120 41.6N 16.6W 961 78
0000UTC 16.10.2017 132 48.0N 12.8W 957 81
1200UTC 16.10.2017 144 53.2N 7.9W 964 55


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 101603

2017-10-10 16:17

WTNT80 EGRR 101603

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 10.10.2017

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 31.6N 38.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172017

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 10.10.2017 31.6N 38.4W MODERATE
00UTC 11.10.2017 30.8N 37.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.10.2017 30.4N 36.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.10.2017 30.7N 35.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.10.2017 31.1N 35.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.10.2017 31.6N 35.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.10.2017 32.5N 33.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.10.2017 33.7N 30.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 14.10.2017 35.3N 26.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 15.10.2017 37.2N 22.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.10.2017 41.6N 16.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.10.2017 48.0N 12.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.10.2017 53.2N 7.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 101603

2017-10-10 15:17

WTNT42 KNHC 101459
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 10 2017

Convective banding has continued to become better defined since the
previous advisory, and an eye-like feature has developed in the
center of the convection. However, despite the much improved
satellite appearance, it appears that the increased convective
organization has not yet translated into an increase in the surface
winds based on a 1204Z ASCAT-B overpass, which only showed winds of
30-31 kt in the southern quadrant. Some undersampling is likely due
to the small 25-nmi radius of maximum winds, and two nearby ships
were under-sampled by at least 5 kt. Dvorak intensity estimates
range from T2.3/33 kt from UW-CIMSS to T3.0/45 kt from TAFB to
T4.0/65 kt from SAB. For now, the initial intensity will remain at
45 kt, which is an average of the scatterometer winds and all of the
other available intensity estimates.

Ophelia has been lumbering along slowly toward the southeast during
the past 6 hours, and the initial motion estimate is now 130/04 kt.
The latest model guidance remains in excellent agreement on the
cyclone moving slowly toward the southeast for next 48 hours or so.
By 72 hours, Ophelia is expected to turn northeastward and
gradually accelerate into the westerlies ahead of a deep-layer
trough. Since the NHC model guidance is tightly packed about the
previous advisory track, only minor adjustments were made for this
advisory.

The intensity forecast isn't as straightforward as the track
forecast due to the aforementioned differences in the intensity
estimates. However, given that both the GFS and ECMWF models
accurately predicted much lower intensity values of 35-40 kt for
the 1200Z initial time period, a blend of those models were used to
construct the intensity forecast for this advisory package. In
addition to the slightly lower intensity forecast, the wind radii
were also decreased both at the initial time and throughout the
forecast period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 31.5N 38.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 30.9N 37.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 30.2N 37.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 29.8N 36.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 30.0N 36.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 31.2N 33.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 33.4N 28.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 15/1200Z 36.0N 21.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2017-10-10 15:02

WTNT32 KNHC 101453
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ophelia Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 10 2017

...OPHELIA GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.5N 38.3W
ABOUT 780 MI...1260 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 130 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was
located near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 38.3 West. Ophelia is
moving toward the southeast near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue during the next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Ophelia is expected to become a hurricane by Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2017-10-10 15:02

WTNT22 KNHC 101453
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017
1500 UTC TUE OCT 10 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 38.3W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 130 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 38.3W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 38.5W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 30.9N 37.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 30.2N 37.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 29.8N 36.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 30.0N 36.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 31.2N 33.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 33.4N 28.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 36.0N 21.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.5N 38.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

2017-10-10 08:47

WTNT42 KNHC 100831
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 AM AST Tue Oct 10 2017

Although the intensity of Ophelia's deep convection has decreased
during the past several hours, the cloud pattern has improved
and become more symmetric with banding features now better
established around the center. The initial intensity is held at 45
kt, in agreement with a Dvorak classification from SAB and the
latest satellite consensus estimate from CIMSS at the University of
Wisconsin.

The recent decrease in convection could be associated with some dry
air that has wrapped into the circulation, as seen in total
precipitable water imagery. The other environmental conditions
appear generally conducive for strengthening with wind shear values
expected to decrease to near 10 kt during the next couple of days
with SSTs remaining marginally warm around 26.5 to 27 deg C.
These conditions combined with an unstable atmosphere should allow
Ophelia to strengthen, and the NHC forecast follows the IVCN and
HCCA consensus models and brings the cyclone to hurricane strength
in 24 to 36 hours. Although the official forecast shows slight
weakening by the end of the period due to an increase in shear and
cooler waters, the latest guidance suggests that the weakening
could be less than currently forecast.

Satellite fixes indicate that Ophelia has made a turn to the
southeast, as expected. A continued slow southeast motion is
forecast during the next 36 to 48 hours as mid-level ridging
builds to the north and west of the storm. After that time, a turn
to the northeast or east-northeast at a progressively faster pace is
expected as a mid- to upper-level trough approaches Ophelia. The
models are in fairly good agreement, and only minor changes were
made to the previous NHC track forecast. This prediction lies near
the middle of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 31.9N 38.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 31.7N 38.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 30.8N 37.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 30.2N 37.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 30.0N 36.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 31.0N 35.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 33.0N 30.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 15/0600Z 35.5N 23.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2017-10-10 08:47

WTNT32 KNHC 100831
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ophelia Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 AM AST Tue Oct 10 2017

...OPHELIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 38.8W
ABOUT 790 MI...1270 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 125 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was
located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 38.8 West. Ophelia is
moving toward the southeast near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue during the next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Ophelia is expected to become
a hurricane by Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2017-10-10 08:47

WTNT22 KNHC 100831
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017
0900 UTC TUE OCT 10 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 38.8W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 125 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 38.8W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 38.9W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 31.7N 38.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 30.8N 37.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 30.2N 37.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 30.0N 36.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 31.0N 35.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 33.0N 30.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 35.5N 23.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 38.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2017-10-10 04:17

WTNT82 EGRR 100403

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 10.10.2017

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 32.0N 39.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 10.10.2017 0 32.0N 39.1W 1003 41
1200UTC 10.10.2017 12 31.9N 38.9W 997 41
0000UTC 11.10.2017 24 31.1N 38.5W 994 46
1200UTC 11.10.2017 36 30.0N 37.8W 990 48
0000UTC 12.10.2017 48 29.7N 36.8W 988 49
1200UTC 12.10.2017 60 30.3N 36.3W 985 54
0000UTC 13.10.2017 72 31.3N 36.1W 982 57
1200UTC 13.10.2017 84 31.9N 35.2W 979 57
0000UTC 14.10.2017 96 32.3N 33.1W 976 63
1200UTC 14.10.2017 108 32.8N 30.0W 969 65
0000UTC 15.10.2017 120 33.3N 26.0W 967 68
1200UTC 15.10.2017 132 34.4N 21.8W 962 81
0000UTC 16.10.2017 144 35.8N 17.2W 975 65

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 10.3N 144.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.10.2017 12 10.3N 144.6W 1006 24
0000UTC 11.10.2017 24 11.2N 145.5W 1004 33
1200UTC 11.10.2017 36 12.9N 146.2W 1004 28
0000UTC 12.10.2017 48 14.2N 147.3W 1003 34
1200UTC 12.10.2017 60 14.7N 149.0W 1005 27
0000UTC 13.10.2017 72 14.8N 150.9W 1006 24
1200UTC 13.10.2017 84 15.0N 153.0W 1007 27
0000UTC 14.10.2017 96 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 100403

2017-10-10 04:17

WTNT80 EGRR 100403

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 10.10.2017

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 32.0N 39.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172017

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 10.10.2017 32.0N 39.1W WEAK
12UTC 10.10.2017 31.9N 38.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.10.2017 31.1N 38.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.10.2017 30.0N 37.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.10.2017 29.7N 36.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.10.2017 30.3N 36.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.10.2017 31.3N 36.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.10.2017 31.9N 35.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.10.2017 32.3N 33.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.10.2017 32.8N 30.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 15.10.2017 33.3N 26.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.10.2017 34.4N 21.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.10.2017 35.8N 17.2W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 10.3N 144.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 10.10.2017 10.3N 144.6W WEAK
00UTC 11.10.2017 11.2N 145.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.10.2017 12.9N 146.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.10.2017 14.2N 147.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.10.2017 14.7N 149.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.10.2017 14.8N 150.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.10.2017 15.0N 153.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.10.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 100403

2017-10-10 03:02

WTNT42 KNHC 100252
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 PM AST Mon Oct 09 2017

Ophelia's center is just south of a broad curved band of deep
convection. At synoptic time, the subjective Dvorak
classifications from TAFB and SAB were both at 2.5, or 35 kt, while
the CIMSS SATCON was at 43 kt. Given the increasingly curved
structure of the bands during the last couple of hours, the initial
intensity is set at 45 kt, a bit higher than the previous advisory.

While the tropical storm is fighting some moderate vertical shear
currently, the global models suggest that this should lighten some
between now and about day 4 as Ophelia resides between the
mid-latitude and subtropical westerlies. Even though the system
will be traversing cool 26C SSTs, upper-tropospheric temperatures
likely will also be cool, allowing for deep convection to continue.
The mid-level moisture analyzed in the SHIPS guidance appears to be
somewhat dry, though the total precipitable water imagery shows
distinct moistening near the system during the last couple of days.
The official intensity forecast shows gradual intensification
through day 3, then slow weakening thereafter. This is close to a
blend of the LGEM statistical guidance and the HWRF dynamical model
and is slightly above that of the previous advisory.

The initial position has fairly small uncertainty as the
low-level center is along the southern edge of the deep
convection, as seen in the GOES-16 shortwave infrared imagery.
Ophelia is moving toward the northeast at about 6 kt - somewhat
unexpectedly - this evening. Despite this, the model guidance
suggests that a ridge will soon build in strongly north of Ophelia
and force the tropical storm to the southeast and then south
during the next couple of days. Around day 3, Ophelia should get
kicked out toward the east-northeast by an approaching trough in the
mid-latitude westerlies. The official track forecast is north of
the previous forecast in the short term and east-northeast in the
long term, and is in between the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach
(HCCA) and the previous forecast.

The initial tropical-storm-force wind radii was adjusted outward
based upon a 2137Z AMSU size analysis. The official size forecast
is based upon the RVCN consensus technique.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 32.3N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 32.5N 38.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 32.0N 38.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 31.1N 37.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 30.4N 37.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 30.8N 35.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 14/0000Z 32.5N 32.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 15/0000Z 34.5N 26.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Landsea

2017-10-10 03:02

WTNT32 KNHC 100251
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ophelia Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 PM AST Mon Oct 09 2017

...OPHELIA REMAINS FAR OUT TO SEA AS A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.3N 39.0W
ABOUT 785 MI...1260 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was
located near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 39.0 West. Ophelia is
moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). The tropical
storm is expected to turn toward the southeast and then south at
about the same rate of forward speed during the next couple of
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Ophelia
is expected to become a hurricane by Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Landsea

2017-10-09 20:47

WTNT42 KNHC 092037
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 PM AST Mon Oct 09 2017

Ophelia's convective pattern has continued to steadily improve with
the formation of strong thunderstorms with cloud tops near -80C near
the center, along with the development of tighter curved banding
features in the southeastern semicircle. There has also been a
noticeable increase in lightning activity within 30 nmi of the
center. The TAFB Dvorak intensity estimate at 1800Z was T2.5/35 kt.
However, NHC objective Dvorak estimates are ranging from T3.2/49 kt
using a curved band pattern to T3.5/55 kt for a shear pattern. Based
on the aforementioned estimates and the continued improvement in
Ophelia's convective organization since the 1800Z TAFB estimate, the
initial intensity is increased to 40 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 055/03 kt. There is no significant
change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Ophelia is
expected to remain embedded within a weak flow regime for the next
72 hours due to the cyclone being cut off from the mid-latitude
westerlies, resulting in a slow and gradual turn toward the east and
southeast during that time frame. Thereafter, a broad mid- to
upper-level trough to the northwest, in conjunction with a building
subtropical ridge to the south, is forecast to gradually accelerate
Ophelia toward the northeast at a slightly faster forward speed of
near 10 kt. The new NHC forecast track is close to the northern edge
of the guidance envelope out of respect for the ECMWF model, but the
forward speed is slower than the ECMWF and similar to a blend of the
HCCA and TVCX consensus models.

Ophelia is expected to remain over marginally warm SSTs of 26.5-27C,
but temperatures aloft that are 2-3 deg C colder than normal should
continue to produce steep lapse rates and strong instability, which
will allow for deep convection to develop for the next 96 h or so.
Both the GFS and ECMWF models continue to forecast the vertical wind
shear to decrease sharply after 24 h, with the ECMWF forecasting
shear values to decrease to less than 10 kt from 36-96 hours. Based
on the availability of strong instability and lower shear, slow but
steady strengthening is expected for the next 3-4 days, with only
the occasional entrainment of very dry mid-level air preventing
rapid intensification from occurring, at least in the short term.
After 96 h, Ophelia will be encountering increasing southwesterly
wind shear of 15-20 kt and also be moving over 25C sea-surface
temperatures, a combination that should cap the intensification
process and possibly even induce weakening. The SHIPS and LGEM
statistical models, along with the HCCA and IVCN consensus models,
have come into much better agreement on their intensity forecasts.
Therefore, there is a higher degree of confidence in the official
intensity forecast, which basically remains unchanged from the
previous advisory. Note, it is possible that Ophelia could reach a
higher peak intensity than indicated between 72-96 hours when the
wind shear will be at its lowest value.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 31.5N 39.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 31.6N 39.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 31.4N 38.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 30.8N 37.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 30.1N 37.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 29.7N 36.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 31.0N 33.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 32.4N 30.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2017-10-09 20:47

WTNT32 KNHC 092037
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ophelia Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 PM AST Mon Oct 09 2017

...OPHELIA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...
...NO THREAT TO ANY LAND AREAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.5N 39.6W
ABOUT 845 MI...1355 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was
located near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 39.6 West. Ophelia is
moving toward the northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow motion
toward the east-northeast and east is forecast to occur later
tonight, followed by a turn toward the southeast on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next
48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2017-10-09 20:47

WTNT22 KNHC 092036
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017
2100 UTC MON OCT 09 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 39.6W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 39.6W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 39.7W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 31.6N 39.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 31.4N 38.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 30.8N 37.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 30.1N 37.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 29.7N 36.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 31.0N 33.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 32.4N 30.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.5N 39.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

2017-10-09 16:17

WTNT82 EGRR 091604

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 09.10.2017

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 31.4N 39.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.10.2017 0 31.4N 39.8W 1009 33
0000UTC 10.10.2017 12 32.2N 39.4W 1004 39
1200UTC 10.10.2017 24 31.9N 39.4W 998 40
0000UTC 11.10.2017 36 31.1N 38.9W 995 43
1200UTC 11.10.2017 48 30.0N 38.7W 992 45
0000UTC 12.10.2017 60 28.9N 38.3W 990 51
1200UTC 12.10.2017 72 29.1N 37.3W 985 57
0000UTC 13.10.2017 84 29.7N 37.1W 982 59
1200UTC 13.10.2017 96 30.5N 36.6W 980 57
0000UTC 14.10.2017 108 31.3N 35.3W 978 61
1200UTC 14.10.2017 120 32.0N 32.8W 974 65
0000UTC 15.10.2017 132 32.2N 29.5W 973 65
1200UTC 15.10.2017 144 32.3N 26.7W 971 76

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 10.5N 145.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 11.10.2017 36 10.9N 145.6W 1005 25
1200UTC 11.10.2017 48 11.9N 146.4W 1005 27
0000UTC 12.10.2017 60 12.7N 147.0W 1005 25
1200UTC 12.10.2017 72 13.3N 148.1W 1006 24
0000UTC 13.10.2017 84 13.5N 149.8W 1006 22
1200UTC 13.10.2017 96 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 091603

2017-10-09 16:17

WTNT80 EGRR 091603

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 09.10.2017

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 31.4N 39.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172017

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.10.2017 31.4N 39.8W WEAK
00UTC 10.10.2017 32.2N 39.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.10.2017 31.9N 39.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.10.2017 31.1N 38.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.10.2017 30.0N 38.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.10.2017 28.9N 38.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.10.2017 29.1N 37.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.10.2017 29.7N 37.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.10.2017 30.5N 36.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.10.2017 31.3N 35.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.10.2017 32.0N 32.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 15.10.2017 32.2N 29.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.10.2017 32.3N 26.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 10.5N 145.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 11.10.2017 10.9N 145.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.10.2017 11.9N 146.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.10.2017 12.7N 147.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.10.2017 13.3N 148.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.10.2017 13.5N 149.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.10.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 091603

2017-10-09 14:47

WTNT42 KNHC 091438
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 AM AST Mon Oct 09 2017

The convective pattern of the small cyclone has continued to improve
since the previous advisory, with some thunderstorm activity having
developed near or over the center, along with an increase in curved
banding features in the eastern semicircle. The Dvorak intensity
estimate at 1200Z from TAFB was T2.0/30 kt, but given the
aforementioned improvement in the curved-band structure since that
time, the initial intensity is increased to 35 kt. This makes
Ophelia the fifteenth named storm of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane
season.

The initial motion estimate is 030/04 kt. The steering flow
surrounding Ophelia is expected to continue to be weak for the next
day or so while the cyclone remains entangled with a weak
upper-level low located just to its north and northwest. As a
result, only a slow drift toward the northeast and and east is
forecast. By 36 h, increased mid-level ridging to the northwest of
Ophelia should induce a motion toward the east-southeast and
southeast through 72 h, after which a broad mid-latitude trough is
expected to gradually accelerate the cyclone toward the northeast at
a forward speed of near 10 kt. The official forecast remains down
the middle of the guidance envelope, in close agreement with the
previous forecast track, and the HCCA and TVCX consensus models.
Ophelia should remain far away from land for the next 5 days.

Although Ophelia is forecast to remain over marginally warm SSTs of
26.5-27 deg C, much colder-than-normal temperatures aloft should
offset the relatively cool ocean temperatures and produce sufficient
instability to generate moderate to strong convection for the next
120 h. The GFS-based SHIPS model is currently assessing 25 kt of
westerly vertical wind shear, which obviously isn't occuring based
on the recent development of anticyclonic outflow over the low-level
center and across most of Ophelia's circulation. In contrast, the
UW-CIMSS shear analyses indicate lower shear values near 15 kt.
However, both shear assessments are likely too high given the large
domains that they use to calculate environmental wind shear. Based
on recent trends noted in water vapor imagery showing the shear
decreasing, along with the overall favorable upper-level wind fields
forecast by the GFS and ECMWF, especially after 36 hours, slow but
steady strengthening is expected for the next 5 days, with only
occasional intrusions of dry mid-level air being the primary
inhibiting factor to the intensification process. The official
intensity forecast is close to the NOAA HCCA consensus model, is
about midway between the more aggressive IVCN consensus model that
makes Ophelia a hurricane in about 72 h, and the more conservative
statistical SHIPS and LGEM models. However, even the SHIPS and LGEM
models have increased their peak intensity forecasts by at least 15
kt since the previous advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 31.4N 39.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 31.7N 39.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 31.6N 38.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 31.3N 38.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 30.7N 37.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 29.8N 36.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 30.5N 34.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 14/1200Z 32.0N 31.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2017-10-09 14:47

WTNT32 KNHC 091438
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ophelia Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 AM AST Mon Oct 09 2017

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA OVER THE OPEN
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.4N 39.9W
ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was
located near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 39.9 West. Ophelia is
moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a turn
toward the northeast is expected later today. A motion toward
the east-northeast and east is forecast to occur later tonight,
followed by a turn toward the east-southeast on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2017-10-09 14:47

WTNT22 KNHC 091438
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017
1500 UTC MON OCT 09 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 39.9W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 39.9W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 40.0W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 31.7N 39.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 31.6N 38.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 31.3N 38.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 30.7N 37.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 29.8N 36.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 30.5N 34.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 32.0N 31.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.4N 39.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

2017-10-09 14:17

WTNT42 KNHC 090833
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Seventeen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 AM AST Mon Oct 09 2017

The well-defined low pressure system over the eastern Atlantic
several hundred miles southwest of the Azores has maintained an
area of deep convection near and to the east of the center for the
past several hours. Therefore, the system now meets the criteria
for a tropical depression. The initial intensity is estimated to be
30 kt based on ASCAT data from around 0000 UTC and a 2.0/30 kt
Dvorak classification from TAFB.

The depression is moving slowly northward at 3 kt, and a continued
slow north to north-northeast motion is expected today. A turn to
the east and then southeast is forecast to begin tonight and
continue through Wednesday while the cyclone is steered by the flow
on the east side of a subtropical ridge. Thereafter, a mid- to
upper-level trough is expected to approach the depression, and that
should cause the system to move a little faster to the east and
east-northeast. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the
guidance envelope, in agreement with various consensus aids, and
keeps the system far from any land areas.

The depression is currently over marginally warm 27 deg C SSTs and
in an environment of moderate to strong westerly shear. The
models suggest that the shear will likely let up a little during the
next couple of days, which could allow the depression to gradually
strengthen while it remains over relatively warm waters. After that
time, the shear could increase again, but the amount of shear
depends on the exact track of the tropical cyclone. There is a fair
amount of spread in the models at the longer range with the regional
models (HWRF, HMON, and COAMPS-TC) bringing the system to hurricane
strength while the statistical SHIPS and LGEM models show a much
weaker system. The NHC intensity forecast leans toward the more
conservative side of the guidance for now, but it should be noted
that confidence in the intensity forecast is low.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 31.1N 39.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 31.5N 39.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 31.7N 39.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 31.5N 38.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 31.0N 37.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 29.7N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 29.7N 35.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 14/0600Z 31.0N 32.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2017-10-09 14:17

WTNT32 KNHC 090832
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seventeen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 AM AST Mon Oct 09 2017

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...
...NO THREAT TO LAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.1N 39.9W
ABOUT 875 MI...1405 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Seventeen was located near latitude 31.1 North, longitude 39.9 West.
The depression is moving toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h), and
this motion is expected to continue today. A turn to the east and
east-southeast is expected to occur tonight and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to
become a tropical storm later today or tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2017-10-09 14:17

WTNT22 KNHC 090831
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017
0900 UTC MON OCT 09 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 39.9W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 39.9W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 40.0W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 31.5N 39.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 31.7N 39.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 31.5N 38.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 31.0N 37.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 29.7N 37.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 29.7N 35.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 31.0N 32.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.1N 39.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI