Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PHILIPPE-17
in Bahamas, United States, Cuba

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 300409

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 30.10.2017

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ANALYSED POSITION : 33.4N 72.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL182017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.10.2017 0 33.4N 72.9W 983 57
1200UTC 30.10.2017 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 31.1N 45.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.11.2017 60 31.1N 46.1W 1014 28
0000UTC 02.11.2017 72 31.7N 47.9W 1013 29
1200UTC 02.11.2017 84 31.3N 49.7W 1013 28
0000UTC 03.11.2017 96 31.5N 50.2W 1012 29
1200UTC 03.11.2017 108 32.6N 50.6W 1011 29
0000UTC 04.11.2017 120 34.5N 50.6W 1011 26
1200UTC 04.11.2017 132 36.8N 49.3W 1010 29
0000UTC 05.11.2017 144 38.5N 47.2W 1010 31


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 300409


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 300409

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 30.10.2017

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ANALYSED POSITION : 33.4N 72.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL182017

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 30.10.2017 33.4N 72.9W MODERATE
12UTC 30.10.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 31.1N 45.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.11.2017 31.1N 46.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 02.11.2017 31.7N 47.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.11.2017 31.3N 49.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.11.2017 31.5N 50.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.11.2017 32.6N 50.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.11.2017 34.5N 50.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.11.2017 36.8N 49.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.11.2017 38.5N 47.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 300409


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 292032
TCDAT3

Remnants Of Philippe Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017
500 PM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017

During the past few hours, strong vertical wind shear in excess of
50 kt, plus merger with a cold front, has taken its toll on
Philippe's previously well-defined low-level circulation. The system
has become elongated north-to-south within the frontal zone, and a
new low-level center may have developed about 150 nmi farther north
along the frontal boundary near NOAA buoy 41002. Now that Philippe
has lost any tropical or subtropical characteristics due to merger
with a synoptic-scale cold front, the system is declared to have
dissipated.

Much of the latent heat and deep convection associated with
Philippe's remnants will likely be drawn into a larger extratropical
low pressure that is developing near the outer banks of North
Carolina, aiding in that intensification process. Although the
developing powerful low near the Outer Banks is not directly
associated with Philippe, interests along the mid-Atlantic and
southern New England coasts should closely monitor forecast products
issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center, NOAA Ocean Prediction
Center, and your local National Weather Service forecast office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 31.0N 75.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 30/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 292032
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Philippe Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017
500 PM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...PHILIPPE DISSIPATES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.0N 75.0W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 46 MPH...74 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the remnants of Philippe were located near
latitude 31.0 North, longitude 75.0 West. The remnants of Philippe
have merged with a frontal system and are moving toward the
north-northeast near 46 mph (74 km/h).

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center. Nearby NOAA buoy 41002 recently reported a
sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) and a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches)
based on data from NOAA buoy 41002.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 292031
TCMAT3

REMNANTS OF PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182017
2100 UTC SUN OCT 29 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 75.0W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 40 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......150NE 200SE 50SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 210SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 75.0W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 75.6W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z...MERGED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.0N 75.0W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 291750
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017
200 PM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...PHILIPPE SCURRYING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE U.S. EAST
COAST AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED FOR THE BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 75.4W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM ENE OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 46 MPH...74 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for the northwestern Bahamas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

No coastal watches or warnings are in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 75.4 West. Philippe is
moving toward the east-northeast near 36 mph (74 km/h). A motion
toward the northeast is expected to begin later this afternoon and
tonight and continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the
center of Philippe will move farther away from the United States
east coast and the northwestern Bahamas, and emerge over the open
western Atlantic this afternoon and tonight, remaining well away
from the United States and Bermuda.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little change in strengthen is expected today, and
Philippe is forecast to merge with a cold front and become a
post-tropical cyclone by tonight, and be absorbed by a large
extratropical low on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km)
from the center. Recent ship observations continue to indicate that
tropical-storm-force winds of 40 to 50 mph (65 to 83 km/h) are
occurring to the east of northwestern Bahamas.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Philippe is expected to produce additional rain
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over eastern Cuba. This rainfall
could cause flash flooding, especially in urban areas and in the
mountainous terrain of Cuba.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 291604

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 29.10.2017

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ANALYSED POSITION : 27.4N 78.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL182017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.10.2017 0 27.4N 78.1W 997 39
0000UTC 30.10.2017 12 35.2N 73.6W 981 58
1200UTC 30.10.2017 24 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 31.7N 45.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.11.2017 72 31.7N 45.0W 1014 30
0000UTC 02.11.2017 84 31.8N 47.1W 1013 28
1200UTC 02.11.2017 96 32.2N 48.3W 1013 27
0000UTC 03.11.2017 108 33.1N 49.4W 1012 27
1200UTC 03.11.2017 120 34.4N 50.6W 1011 25
0000UTC 04.11.2017 132 36.2N 50.8W 1010 24
1200UTC 04.11.2017 144 38.1N 49.0W 1010 24


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 291604


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 291604

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 29.10.2017

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ANALYSED POSITION : 27.4N 78.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL182017

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.10.2017 27.4N 78.1W MODERATE
00UTC 30.10.2017 35.2N 73.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 30.10.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 31.7N 45.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.11.2017 31.7N 45.0W WEAK
00UTC 02.11.2017 31.8N 47.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.11.2017 32.2N 48.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.11.2017 33.1N 49.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.11.2017 34.4N 50.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.11.2017 36.2N 50.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.11.2017 38.1N 49.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 291604


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 291435
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017
1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017

Philippe looks the best it ever has, possessing a well-defined
low-level center as seen in high-resolution GOES-16 visible
imagery, along with at least 45-kt sustained winds based on several
recent ship reports. However, the cyclone is sheared with the bulk
of the convective cloud shield having been displaced northeast of
the center due to southwesterly mid-/upper-level winds of 45-75 kt.

Although the exact center of Philippe was difficult to track
overnight, the current position is actually on the previous forecast
track. Philippe has been moving due east at about 25-27 kt for the
past few hours. However, the NHC model guidance is in decent
agreement that the cyclone will turn toward the northeast by this
afternoon ahead of an approaching frontal system and a powerful
deep-layer trough moving quickly eastward across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico and Florida. The cold front is currently located only 90-100
nmi west of Philippe's center, and merger with the front along with
transition to a extratropical low pressure system is expected by 12
hours, if not sooner. As the aforementioned trough becomes more
negatively tilted over the next 24 hours, a strong extratropical low
is forecast to develop near or just east of the North Carolina Outer
Banks, pulling Philippe's circulation north-northeastward to
northward in the 12-24-hour period well offshore of the U.S east
coast. Absorption of Philippe's circulation into the larger
extratropical low is expected to be completed by 24 hours when the
larger low is located over New England. The official forecast track
lies to the right of the previous advisory track, mainly due to the
recent eastward jog, and lies along the eastern edge of the guidance
envelope near a blend of the HCCA and TVCN consensus models.

Some additional slight strengthening is possible during the
next 12 hours or so, mainly due weak baroclinic forcing and the
faster forward speed that is forecast. However, most of the
baroclinic energy associated with the negatively tilted mid-latitude
trough is expected to remain to the west, triggering the development
of the above-mentioned significant extratropical coastal low. In
fact, some of the latent heat from Philippe's circulation will
likely get drawn into the larger extratropical low developing to its
northwest, aiding in that intensification process and increasing the
demise of Philippe after 12 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 27.8N 77.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 32.5N 72.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 30/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 291435
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017
1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...PHILIPPE RACING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE U.S. EAST COAST
AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CUBA DISCONTINUED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 77.5W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM E OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Cuba.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 77.5 West. Philippe is
moving toward the east-northeast near 31 mph (50 km/h). A motion
toward the northeast at a faster forward speed is expected to begin
later this afternoon and continue through Monday. On the forecast
track, the center of Philippe will continue to move quickly away
from the Florida east coast and the northwestern Bahamas and emerge
over the open western Atlantic later this afternoon, remaining well
away from the United States and Bermuda.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so.
However, Philippe is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by
tonight, and be absorbed by a large extratropical low on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km)
from the center. Recent ship observations continue to indicate that
tropical-storm-force winds of 40 to 50 mph (65 to 83 km/h) are
occurring across the waters in and near the northwestern Bahamas.
In addition, sustained winds of 35 mph (56 km/h) and gusts to 51 mph
(81 km/h) have been occurring at Settlement Point on the western end
of Grand Bahama Island during the past couple of hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Philippe is expected to produce additional rain
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over eastern Cuba. This rainfall
could cause flash flooding, especially in urban areas and in the
mountainous terrain of Cuba. The heavy rainfall threat for the
Bahamas has diminished

WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue across portions of
the warning area in the northwestern Bahamas this morning, but end
by early afternoon.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 291431
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182017
1500 UTC SUN OCT 29 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR CUBA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 77.5W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 27 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 170SE 60SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 210SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 77.5W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 78.9W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 32.5N 72.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 170SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.8N 77.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 291201 CCA
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Intermediate Advisory Number 7A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017

Corrected locations and distances

...PHILIPPE ACCELERATING AWAY FROM FLORIDA BUT STILL PRODUCING
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 79.0W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM N OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM E OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 32 MPH...52 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la
Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara
* Northwestern Bahamas

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
estimated near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 79.0 West. Philippe
has accelerated and is now moving toward the northeast near 32 mph
(52 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through
Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe will continue
to move quickly away from the Florida east coast and the
northwestern Bahamas this morning, and then move over the open
western Atlantic by this afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional slight strengthening is forecast
during the next day or so. However, Philippe is expected to become
a post-tropical cyclone by tonight, and be absorbed by an
extratropical low on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center. Recent ship observations indicate that
tropical-storm-force winds of 40 to 50 mph (65 to 83 km/h) are
occurring across the waters in and near the northwestern Bahamas.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Philippe is expected to produce additional rain
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the northern Bahamas and
eastern Cuba. This rainfall could cause flash flooding, especially
in urban areas and in the mountainous terrain of Cuba.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to end in the warning
area in Cuba this morning. Tropical storm conditions should
continue across portions of the warning area in the northwestern
Bahamas this morning, but end by early afternoon.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 291151
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...PHILIPPE ACCELERATING AWAY FROM FLORIDA BUT STILL PRODUCING
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 79.0W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SW OF MIAMI FLORIDA
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ENE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 32 MPH...52 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la
Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara
* Northwestern Bahamas

For storm information specific to your area outside the United
States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
estimated near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 79.0 West. Philippe
has accelerated and is now moving toward the northeast near 32 mph
(52 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through
Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe will continue
to move quickly away from the Florida east coast and the
northwestern Bahamas this morning, and then move over the open
western Atlantic by this afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some additional slight strengthening is forecast
during the next day or so. However, Philippe is expected to become
a post-tropical cyclone by tonight, and be absorbed by an
extratropical low on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center. Recent ship observations indicate that
tropical-storm-force winds of 40 to 50 mph (65 to 83 km/h) are
occurring across the waters in and near the northwestern Bahamas.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Philippe is expected to produce additional rain
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the northern Bahamas and
eastern Cuba. This rainfall could cause flash flooding, especially
in urban areas and in the mountainous terrain of Cuba.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to end in the warning
area in Cuba this morning. Tropical storm conditions should
continue across portions of the warning area in the northwestern
Bahamas this morning, but end by early afternoon.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 290841
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017
500 AM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017

Philippe is a very poorly organized system, and it is a stretch to
call it a tropical cyclone at this time. The most trackable center
passed near Key West a couple of hours ago and has moved into the
Straits of Florida. Given that northwesterly winds are now observed
over southeastern Florida, however, it is unlikely that this is a
unique center of circulation. Therefore, the advisory location
near the southern tip of Florida is more of a mean center position.
Given that, the initial motion is a highly uncertain 070/15 kt.
Regardless of its precise location, the overall system should turn
northeastward to north-northeastward and accelerate considerably
ahead of a high amplitude 500 mb trough near the United States east
coast.

Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicated
that the maximum sustained winds were near 40 kt over the Straits
of Florida. Deep convection has been displaced well to the
northeast of the estimated center by nearly 50 kt of deep-layer
shear. The shear is forecast to increase even more, and Philippe
is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone within the next 24
hours as it becomes embedded within a cold front that is approaching
from the northwest. The above-mentioned trough is likely to induce
some baroclinic intensification of the storm today and tonight. By
Monday, however, the global models show the cyclone becoming
absorbed into a larger and stronger extratropical low near New
England.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 25.0N 81.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 29.2N 77.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 36.0N 72.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 290840
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017
500 AM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...POORLY ORGANIZED PHILIPPE NEAR EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 81.0W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SW OF MIAMI FLORIDA
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ENE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch from Craig Key to Golden Beach Florida and
for the Central Bahamas is discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la
Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara
* Northwestern Bahamas

For storm information specific to your area outside the United
States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
estimated near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 81.0 West. Philippe
is moving toward the east-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast is expected during the next few hours, and
a rapid motion toward the northeast is expected through Monday.
On the forecast track, the center of Philippe will move across the
southern tip of the Florida peninsula this morning, and then across
the northwestern Bahamas later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. However,
Philippe is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by tonight,
and to become absorbed by an extratropical low on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Philippe is expected to produce additional rain
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the northern Bahamas and
eastern Cuba, and additional rain accumulations of less than 1 inch
over south Florida. This rainfall could cause flash flooding,
especially in urban areas and in the mountainous terrain of Cuba.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to end in the warning
area in Cuba this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected
in portions of the warning area in the northwestern Bahamas later
this morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 290840
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182017
0900 UTC SUN OCT 29 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM CRAIG KEY TO GOLDEN BEACH FLORIDA AND
FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD... LA HABANA... CIUDAD DE
LA HABANA... MATANZAS... CIENFUEGOS... AND VILLA CLARA
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 81.0W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 81.0W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 82.0W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 29.2N 77.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 36.0N 72.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 81.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 290541
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017
200 AM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017

...PHILIPPE MOVING ERRATICALLY NEAR KEY WEST...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 82.0W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM W OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la
Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Craig Key to Golden Beach
* Central Bahamas

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your
national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 82.0 West. Philippe
has been moving erratically eastward near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
turn toward the northeast is expected during the next few hours, and
a rapid motion toward the northeast is expected through Monday.
On the forecast track, the center of Philippe will move across the
Florida Keys or the southern tip of the Florida peninsula this
morning, and across the northwestern Bahamas later today.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48
hours. However, Philippe is expected to become a post-tropical
cyclone by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
mainly to the east and southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Across the northern Bahamas and south Florida including
the Keys rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches are expected through today. These rainfall
totals may produce flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas.

Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible across
portions of central Cuba, which may lead to life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides in the higher terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring over portions
of the warning area in Cuba. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to occur in the warning area later this morning across the
northwestern Bahamas. Tropical storm conditions are possible across
portions of the Florida Keys and southeast Florida over the next
several hours, and in the central Bahamas later this morning.

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two is possible across far South
Florida and the Florida Keys this morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 290408

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 29.10.2017

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SELMA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.8N 91.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202017

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.10.2017 13.8N 91.5W WEAK
12UTC 29.10.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ANALYSED POSITION : 23.0N 81.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL182017

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.10.2017 23.0N 81.4W WEAK
12UTC 29.10.2017 26.6N 78.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.10.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 32.3N 44.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 02.11.2017 32.3N 44.7W WEAK
12UTC 02.11.2017 31.6N 47.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.11.2017 32.1N 48.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.11.2017 32.8N 50.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.11.2017 33.4N 51.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 290408


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 290340 CCA
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 6...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017
1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017

CORRECTED SECOND HEADLINE

...CENTER OF POORLY ORGANIZED PHILIPPE APPROACHING THE FLORIDA
KEYS...
...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING FROM CENTRAL CUBA ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA
TO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 82.1W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la
Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Craig Key to Golden Beach
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12-18 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 82.1 West. Philippe is
moving toward the north-northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast is expected during the next few hours, and a
rapid motion toward the northeast is expected Sunday through
Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe will move
across the Florida Keys or the southern tip of the Florida peninsula
overnight, and across the northwestern Bahamas Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. However,
Philippe is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
mainly to the east and southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Across the northern Bahamas and south Florida including
the Keys rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches are expected through Sunday. These rainfall
totals may produce flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas.

Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible across
portions of western and central Cuba, which may lead to life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides in the higher terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring in the
warning area across Cuba. Tropical storm conditions are expected to
occur in the warning area later tonight across the northwestern
Bahamas. Tropical storm conditions are possible across the upper
Florida Keys and southeast Florida overnight, and in the central
Bahamas by Sunday morning.

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two is possible across far South
Florida and the Florida Keys tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 290241
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017
1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017

Philippe has a very non-classical structure for a tropical cyclone
this evening. A combination of satellite imagery, radar data, and
surface observations show that the circulation center is elongated
northwest-southeast from southwest of Naples, Florida, to central
Cuba with at least three vorticity centers present in this area.
The estimated center position is a mean of the multiple vorticity
centers, with this position near the region of lowest pressure
suggested by the surface observations. Currently, the primary deep
convection is located from the northwestern Bahamas southwestward
across Cuba into the Caribbean, with a smaller area of convection
over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The initial intensity
remains 35 kt, based mainly on continuity from the previous
advisory.

The initial motion is a rather uncertain 015/21. A deep-layer
trough and developing surface low over the eastern United States
should cause Philippe to turn northeastward soon, followed by a
rapid northeastward motion across the southern end of the Florida
Peninsula into the Atlantic. The cyclone should continue to move
around the large baroclinic system until it is absorbed after the
48 h point. The new forecast track is a blend of the previous
forecast and the current guidance, and it is shifted to the north
of the previous track based mainly on the current initial position.

It is unclear how much additional strengthening Philippe can do as
a tropical cyclone, as the shear is increasing over the system and
water vapor imagery shows dry air entrainment in the southwestern
quadrant. However, the upper-level divergence over the system is
very strong, and the large-scale models forecast deepening as the
center crosses southern Florida and the Bahamas. In addition, the
increasing forward speed may increase the maximum winds as well.
Based on these factors, the intensity forecast calls for some
increase in strength during the next 24-36 h. Philippe is likely
to merge with a frontal system associated with the eastern U. S.
trough in about 36 h, and the mid-latitude cyclone should
completely absorb Philippe after 48 h, if not sooner.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Although the center of Philippe is now forecast to move across
the Florida Keys or extreme south Florida, most of the strongest
winds are expected to remain well east and southeast of the center.
However, tropical-storm-force winds, mainly in gusts, could occur
in brief heavy squalls across the upper Florida Keys and southeast
Florida overnight. For that reason, a tropical storm watch remains
in effect for these areas.

2. Regardless of the exact track of Philippe, the primary threat
from this system will be heavy rainfall that can cause localized
flooding across portions of Cuba, the Florida Keys, and South
Florida.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 24.8N 82.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 27.6N 78.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 33.9N 74.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 40.3N 69.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 31/0000Z 48.0N 67.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 01/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 290240
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017
1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017

...CENTER OF POORLY ORGANIZED PHILIPPE APPROACHING THE FLORIDA
KEYS...
...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING OVER FROM CENTRAL CUBA ACROSS SOUTHERN
FLORIDA TO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 82.1W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la
Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Craig Key to Golden Beach
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12-18 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 82.1 West. Philippe is
moving toward the north-northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast is expected during the next few hours, and a
rapid motion toward the northeast is expected Sunday through
Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe will move
across the Florida Keys or the southern tip of the Florida peninsula
overnight, and across the northwestern Bahamas Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. However,
Philippe is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
mainly to the east and southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Across the northern Bahamas and south Florida including
the Keys rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches are expected through Sunday. These rainfall
totals may produce flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas.

Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible across
portions of western and central Cuba, which may lead to life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides in the higher terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring in the
warning area across Cuba. Tropical storm conditions are expected to
occur in the warning area later tonight across the northwestern
Bahamas. Tropical storm conditions are possible across the upper
Florida Keys and southeast Florida overnight, and in the central
Bahamas by Sunday morning.

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two is possible across far South
Florida and the Florida Keys tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 290240
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182017
0300 UTC SUN OCT 29 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD... LA HABANA... CIUDAD DE
LA
HABANA... MATANZAS... CIENFUEGOS... AND VILLA CLARA
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CRAIG KEY TO GOLDEN BEACH
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE
NEXT 12-18 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 82.1W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 210SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 82.1W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 82.5W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 27.6N 78.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 33.9N 74.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 40.3N 69.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 100SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 48.0N 67.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 82.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 282342
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017
800 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017

...PHILIPPE MOVING OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...
...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL CUBA AND SPREADING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.7N 82.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM N OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...45 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la
Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Craig Key to Golden Beach
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning mean
s that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12-18 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests in the Cayman Islands should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located by surface observations, radar data, and satellite images
near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 82.5 West. Philippe is moving
toward the north near 28 mph (45 km/h). A turn toward the northeast
is expected during the next several hours, followed by a faster
motion toward the northeast on Sunday and Monday. On the forecast
track, the center of Philippe will move through the Straits of
Florida this evening, and move across the Florida Keys or the
southern tip of the Florida peninsula overnight, and across the
northwestern Bahamas Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
mainly to the east and southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations
is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Philippe is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals:

The Cayman Islands, western and central Cuba, northern Bahamas:
4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches through
Sunday. These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

South Florida, including the Keys: 2 to 4 inches with isolated
maximum totals of 6 inches through Sunday. These rainfall totals
may produce flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring in the
warning area across Cuba. Tropical storm conditions are expected to
occur in the warning area later tonight across the northwestern
Bahamas. Tropical storm conditions are possible across the upper
Florida Keys and southeast Florida overnight, and in the central
Bahamas by Sunday morning.

TORNADOES: A couple of brief tornadoes are possible across portions
of South Florida and the Florida Keys this evening.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 282052
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017

Satellite images, radar data from Cuba and Key West, and surface
observations indicate the depression has turned northward over the
past few hours, and has also strengthened into a tropical storm.
The initial intensity of 35 kt is based on a surface observation of
35 kt in a brief squall from Grand Cayman at 1444Z, a recent AMSU
estimate of 37 kt, and average Key West Doppler radar velocities of
40 kt between 10,000-12,000 ft just north of the Cuban coast; the
latter data equates to an approximate surface wind speed of 36 kt.

The initial motion estimate is now 355/25 kt based on radar data and
high-resolution GOES-16 visible satellite imagery over the past 2-3
hours. The low-level wind flow pattern for the next 6 hours or so is
forecast to be complex, with a new non-tropical surface low having
recently formed about 100 nmi west of Key West, Florida. This
feature appears to have developed beneath an upper-level jet
entrance region ahead of an approaching cold front. The global,
regional, and even the convective-scale models are now showing the
center of Philippe moving general northward across the Straits of
Florida this evening and merging with the non-tropical low around
0000Z. After the merger over Florida Bay, the various models are in
good agreement on Philippe moving northeastward to
east-northeastward across extreme southern Florida or the Florida
Keys overnight as the cyclone is accelerated ahead of the
aforementioned frontal system and strong mid-/upper-level trough.
After reaching the northwestern Bahamas by 1200Z Sunday morning,
Philippe is forecast to accelerate further towards the northeast at
forward speeds of 30-35 kt, by Sunday afternoon and evening,
remaining well offshore of the Carolinas. By 36 hours, Philippe is
expected to pass about midway between Bermuda and the southeastern
United States, and gradually getting pulled north-northeastward up
the east side of a powerful baroclinic low that is forecast to
develop near Cape Hatteras and move northward near the U.S. east
coast. The NHC track guidance is in reasonable agreement on this
developing track scenario, and lies between the GFS model, which
takes Philippe across the Florida Keys, and the ECMWF model, which
moves the cyclone farther north over South Florida.

The vertical wind shear affecting Philippe is expected to remain
favorable for strengthening to occur for the next 24 hours, along
with an additional baroclinic boost from the aforementioned
upper-level jet maximum. By 36 hours, strong baroclinic forcing
associated with the approaching frontal system are forecast to
induce additional strengthening before the cyclone merges with
the frontal system and becomes an extratropical low by 48 hours.
Dissipation or absorption by a larger extratropical low is expected
by 72 hours when the system is located over the cold waters of the
North Atlantic.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Although the center of Philippe is now forecast to move across
the Florida Keys or extreme south Florida, most of the strongest
winds are expected to remain east and southeast of the center.
However, tropical-storm-force winds, mainly in gusts, could occur
in brief heavy squalls across the upper Florida Keys and southeast
Florida overnight. For that reason, a tropical storm watch remains
in effect for these areas.

2. Regardless of the exact track of Philippe, the primary threat
from this system will be heavy rainfall that can cause localized
flooding across portions of Cuba, the Florida Keys, and South
Florida.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 23.0N 82.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 26.0N 80.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 31.5N 75.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 36.6N 70.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 42.0N 66.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 282035
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE...
...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND SPREADING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 82.6W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SW OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la
Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Craig Key to Golden Beach
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12-18 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests in the Cayman Islands should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located by surface observations, radar data, and satellite images
near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 82.6 West. Philippe is moving
toward the north near 29 mph (46 km/h) and this motion is expected
to continue this evening, followed by a turn toward the northeast
by early Sunday morning. A faster motion toward the northeast is
expected on Sunday and continuing into Monday. On the forecast
track, the center of Philippe will move off of the northern coast
of Cuba and into the Straits of Florida this evening, and move
across the Florida Keys or the southern tip of the Florida peninsula
overnight, and across the northwestern Bahamas Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next
48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
mainly to the east and southeast of the center. A wind gust of 37
mph (59 km/h) was recently reported at Key West International
Airport.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations
is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Philippe is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals:

The Cayman Islands, western and central Cuba, northern Bahamas:
4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches through
Sunday. These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

South Florida, including the Keys: 2 to 4 inches with isolated
maximum totals of 6 inches through Sunday. These rainfall totals
may produce flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring in the
warning area across Cuba. Tropical storm conditions are expected to
occur in the warning area later tonight across the northwestern
Bahamas. Tropical storm conditions are possible across the upper
Florida Keys and southeast Florida overnight, and in the central
Bahamas by Sunday morning.

TORNADOES: A couple of brief tornadoes are possible across portions
of South Florida and the Florida Keys this afternoon and evening.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 282035
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182017
2100 UTC SAT OCT 28 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD... LA HABANA... CIUDAD DE
LA HABANA... MATANZAS... CIENFUEGOS... AND VILLA CLARA
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CRAIG KEY TO GOLDEN BEACH
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 82.6W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 25 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 82.6W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 82.4W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 26.0N 80.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 31.5N 75.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 36.6N 70.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 100SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 42.0N 66.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 82.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 281750
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eighteen Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017
200 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA
AND SPREADING NORTHWARD OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 82.4W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ENE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM S OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la
Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Craig Key to Golden Beach
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12-24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests in the Cayman Islands should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eighteen
was located by weather radars from Cuba and Grand Cayman near
latitude 21.8 North, longitude 82.4 West. The depression is moving
toward the north-northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue today. A motion toward the northeast with an
increase in forward speed is expected to begin tonight and continue
through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center will move across
west-central Cuba this afternoon and evening, across the Straits of
Florida and near the Florida Keys overnight, and across the
northwestern Bahamas Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm overnight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following
rainfall totals:

The Cayman Islands, western and central Cuba, northern Bahamas:
4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches through
Sunday. These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

South Florida, including the Keys: 2 to 4 inches with isolated
maximum totals of 6 inches through Sunday. These rainfall totals
may produce flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area in Cuba later today and the northwestern Bahamas
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible across the upper
Florida Keys and southeast Florida overnight and in the central
Bahamas by Sunday morning.

TORNADOES: A couple of brief tornadoes are possible across extreme
southern Florida and the Florida Keys this afternoon and evening.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 281500
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Eighteen Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017
1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that the low pressure system located over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea has developed a well-defined low-level circulation
center. Satellite imagery also shows more central deep convection
has developed and persisted in the inner-core region since
yesterday. Based on these data, the disturbance has been upgraded
to Tropical Depression Eighteen.

With the recent redevelopment of the inner-core region this morning,
the initial motion estimate is an uncertain 020/19 kt. The global
models remain in excellent agreement on an approaching frontal
system and deep mid-tropospheric trough accelerating the cyclone
north-northeastward across west-central Cuba today, followed by a
motion toward the northeast tonight and Sunday, with the system
passing about midway between Bermuda and the southeastern United
States in 36-48 hours. The new NHC forecast track is essentially
just an update of the previous advisory due to the good agreement in
the global and consensus models, which lie along or just a tad to
the west of the official forecast track.

The vertical wind shear affecting the cyclone is expected to remain
somewhat favorable for strengthening to occur for the next 24 hours
or so, with the depression expected to become a tropical storm by
tonight. Thereafter, baroclinic processes associated with the
aforementioned frontal system are forecast to induce some additional
strengthening before the cyclone merges with the frontal system
and becomes an extratropical low by 48 hours. Dissipation is
expected by 72 hours when the system is located over the far North
Atlantic.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. While the forecast track of the center lies about 35 miles
southeast of the Upper Florida Keys and extreme southeast Florida
and most of the winds are expected to remain east of the center,
only a slight deviation to the west of the expected track or an
increase in the size of the wind field could bring tropical-storm-
force winds across these land areas. For that reason, a tropical
storm watch has been issued for these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 20.8N 82.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 23.0N 81.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 26.6N 78.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 31.5N 74.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 37.5N 69.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 281459
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eighteen Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017
1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017

...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS AND
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 82.9W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM S OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of southeastern
Florida and the upper Florida Keys from Craig Key to Golden Beach.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la
Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Craig Key to Golden Beach
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12-24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests in the Cayman Islands should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Eighteen was located by reconnaissance aircraft and radars from
Cuba and Grand Cayman near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 82.9
West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 22
mph (35 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today. A
motion toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is
expected to begin tonight and continue through Sunday. On the
forecast track, the center will move across west-central Cuba this
afternoon, across the Straits of Florida tonight, and across the
northwestern Bahamas Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on reconnaissance data
is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following
rainfall totals:

The Cayman Islands, western and central Cuba, northern Bahamas: 4 to
8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches through Sunday.
These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening flash floods and
mudslides.

South Florida, including the Keys: 2 to 4 inches with isolated
maximum totals of 6 inches through Sunday. These rainfall totals may
produce flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area in Cuba later today and the northwestern Bahamas
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the central
Bahamas tonight or early Sunday.

TORNADOES: A couple of brief tornadoes are possible across far
South Florida and the Florida Keys this afternoon and evening.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 281458
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182017
1500 UTC SAT OCT 28 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA AND THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY TO GOLDEN BEACH.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE
LA HABANA...MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...AND VILLA CLARA
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CRAIG KEY TO GOLDEN BEACH
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 82.9W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 82.9W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 83.5W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 23.0N 81.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 26.6N 78.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 31.5N 74.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 100SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 37.5N 69.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 82.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART