Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for DAHLIA-17
in Indonesia, Christmas Island

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2017-12-03 15:31

WTXS51 PGTW 031500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 01S SIO 171203133029
2017120312 01S DAHLIA 015 01 180 10 SATL 025
T000 148S 1124E 035 R034 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 166S 1118E 035 R034 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 005 NW QD
T024 176S 1115E 035
AMP
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 14.8S 112.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 112.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.6S 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 17.6S 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

2017-12-03 15:31

WTXS51 PGTW 031500
WARNING ATCG MIL 01S SIO 171203133029
2017120312 01S DAHLIA 015 01 180 10 SATL 025
T000 148S 1124E 035 R034 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 166S 1118E 035 R034 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 005 NW QD
T024 176S 1115E 035
AMP
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 14.8S 112.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 112.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.6S 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 17.6S 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 112.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.
//
0117112718 74S 978E 25
0117112800 77S 984E 25
0117112806 80S 991E 25
0117112812 82S 998E 25
0117112818 84S1004E 25
0117112900 85S1010E 30
0117112906 88S1019E 30
0117112912 89S1029E 30
0117112918 89S1034E 30
0117113000 89S1044E 35
0117113006 89S1062E 40
0117113012 93S1076E 45
0117113018 96S1081E 45
0117120100 97S1090E 50
0117120100 97S1090E 50
0117120106 102S1096E 50
0117120106 102S1096E 50
0117120112 105S1100E 50
0117120112 105S1100E 50
0117120118 107S1104E 55
0117120118 107S1104E 55
0117120200 109S1107E 50
0117120206 110S1113E 45
0117120212 112S1120E 35
0117120218 118S1124E 35
0117120300 125S1124E 35
0117120306 138S1124E 35
0117120312 148S1124E 35

2017-12-03 15:31

WTXS31 PGTW 031500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 14.8S 112.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 112.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.6S 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 17.6S 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 112.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT

2017-12-03 15:31

WTXS31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 14.8S 112.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 112.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.6S 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 17.6S 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 112.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRUGGLING SYSTEM WITH PULSATING
CONVECTION AND LITTLE ORGANIZATION. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE FIXES AND A LOW
REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE OBSERVED IN A 031053Z 91GHZ SSMIS
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON
THE HIGHLY SYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE WITH MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.5 TO T2.5 (25 TO 35 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG EASTERLIES FROM A NEARBY RIDGE TO SOUTHEAST
CREATING A MODERATE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. DIFFLUENCE SOUTHWEST OF
THE SYSTEM ALSO APPEARS ROBUST AND AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TOUGH IS
PROVIDING A WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE
CURRENTLY FAVORABLE AROUND 28 CELSIUS, HOWEVER TEMPERATURES DECLINE
RAPIDLY SOUTH OF 15 DEGREES. TC 01S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST. TC 01S WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE RIDGE BOUNDARY TRACKING
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LLCC IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN TACT WITH BOUTS OF FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, INCREASING WIND SHEAR AND COOLER WATER
TEMPERATURES WILL MITIGATE THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTIVE
CONSOLIDATION AND THE SYSTEM WILL SOON DISSIPATE BY TAU 24. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSISTENCY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM WEAKENS. BEYOND TAU 24 IT IS UNCLEAR WHERE THE REMNANTS OF TC
01S WILL TRACK. AS A WEAK DEPRESSION THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL HAVE
LESS IMPACT ON STEERING AND WILL MOST LIKELY TRACK BACK NORTH TO
NORTHEAST EMBEDDED IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW, LEAVING A POSSIBILITY OF
REGENERATION SEVERAL DAYS OUT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
031200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND
041500Z.//

2017-12-03 04:31

WTXS51 PGTW 030300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 01S SIO 171203020238
2017120300 01S DAHLIA 013 01 180 07 SATL 035
T000 125S 1124E 035 R034 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD
T012 145S 1120E 035 R034 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 164S 1115E 035 R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD
T036 180S 1111E 035 R034 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 193S 1118E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 12.5S 112.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 112.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 14.5S 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

2017-12-03 04:31

WTXS51 PGTW 030300
WARNING ATCG MIL 01S SIO 171203020238
2017120300 01S DAHLIA 013 01 180 07 SATL 035
T000 125S 1124E 035 R034 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD
T012 145S 1120E 035 R034 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 164S 1115E 035 R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD
T036 180S 1111E 035 R034 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 193S 1118E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 12.5S 112.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 112.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 14.5S 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.4S 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.0S 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.3S 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 112.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 588 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 031500Z AND 040300Z.
//
0117112718 74S 978E 25
0117112800 77S 984E 25
0117112806 80S 991E 25
0117112812 82S 998E 25
0117112818 84S1004E 25
0117112900 85S1010E 30
0117112906 88S1019E 30
0117112912 89S1029E 30
0117112918 89S1034E 30
0117113000 89S1044E 35
0117113006 89S1062E 40
0117113012 93S1076E 45
0117113018 96S1081E 45
0117120100 97S1090E 50
0117120100 97S1090E 50
0117120106 102S1096E 50
0117120106 102S1096E 50
0117120112 105S1100E 50
0117120112 105S1100E 50
0117120118 107S1104E 55
0117120118 107S1104E 55
0117120200 109S1107E 50
0117120206 110S1113E 45
0117120212 112S1120E 35
0117120218 118S1124E 35
0117120300 125S1124E 35

2017-12-03 04:31

WTXS31 PGTW 030300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 12.5S 112.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 112.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 14.5S 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.4S 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2017-12-03 04:16

WTXS31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 12.5S 112.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 112.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 14.5S 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.4S 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.0S 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.3S 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 112.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 588 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MUTLI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH LIMITED FLARING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE FULLY
EXPOSED LLCC EVIDENT IN THE MULTI-SPECTRAL LOOP AND IS SUPPORTED BY
A 022216Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE. THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO
SHOWS LIMITED POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION PRESENT TO THE NORTH OF THE
LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS HEDGED ON THE UPPER END
OF MUTLI-AGNECY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.5
TO T2.5 (25-35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND APRF RESPECTIVELY. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (15-
20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA
OF WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 01S HAS POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS CURRENTLY
BEING ENHANCED BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY JET. TC DAHLIA IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AUSTRALIAN CONTINENT. THE SYSTEM WILL
MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS THE
ENVIRONMENT BECOMES UNFAVORABLE WITH COOLER SSTS, UNFAVORABLE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING TROUGH, AND AN EXTENSIVE DRY
AIR MASS WILL FULLY DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM OVER WATER BY TAU 48. ALSO
AFTER TAU 36, THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE RETROGRADES TO THE
NORTH AND CAUSING TC 01S TO ROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE
RIDGE AND TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
STRONG AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK DIRECTION THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU
36, THE WEAKENING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM CAUSES THE MODEL GUIDANCE TO
SPREAD. DESPITE THE SPREAD AFTER TAU 36 THERE IS OVERALL HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z,
032100Z, AND 040300Z.//

2017-12-02 22:01

WTXS51 PGTW 022100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 01S SIO 171202193643
2017120218 01S DAHLIA 012 01 145 07 SATL 030
T000 118S 1124E 035 R034 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD
T012 136S 1123E 040 R034 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 156S 1118E 040 R034 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 173S 1113E 035 R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 183S 1113E 035 R034 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD
T072 193S 1124E 025
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 11.8S 112.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S 112.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 13.6S 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

2017-12-02 22:01

WTXS51 PGTW 022100
WARNING ATCG MIL 01S SIO 171202193643
2017120218 01S DAHLIA 012 01 145 07 SATL 030
T000 118S 1124E 035 R034 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD
T012 136S 1123E 040 R034 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 156S 1118E 040 R034 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 173S 1113E 035 R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 183S 1113E 035 R034 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD
T072 193S 1124E 025
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 11.8S 112.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S 112.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 13.6S 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 15.6S 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 17.3S 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 18.3S 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.3S 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 112.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 623 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030900Z AND 032100Z.
//
0117112718 74S 978E 25
0117112800 77S 984E 25
0117112806 80S 991E 25
0117112812 82S 998E 25
0117112818 84S1004E 25
0117112900 85S1010E 30
0117112906 88S1019E 30
0117112912 89S1029E 30
0117112918 89S1034E 30
0117113000 89S1044E 35
0117113006 89S1062E 40
0117113012 93S1076E 45
0117113018 96S1081E 45
0117120100 97S1090E 50
0117120100 97S1090E 50
0117120106 102S1096E 50
0117120106 102S1096E 50
0117120112 105S1100E 50
0117120112 105S1100E 50
0117120118 107S1104E 55
0117120118 107S1104E 55
0117120200 109S1107E 50
0117120206 110S1113E 45
0117120212 112S1120E 35
0117120218 118S1124E 35

2017-12-02 22:01

WTXS31 PGTW 022100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 11.8S 112.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S 112.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 13.6S 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 15.6S 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2017-12-02 22:01

WTXS31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 11.8S 112.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S 112.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 13.6S 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 15.6S 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 17.3S 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 18.3S 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.3S 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 112.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 623 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE FULLY EXPOSED LLCC EVIDENT IN THE
INFRARED LOOP. THE INITIAL POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY A 021446Z METOP-
B PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING WELL ORGANIZED CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ANALYSIS OF THE CIMSS TOTAL PERCEPTIBLE WATER
PRODUCT SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO ENTRAIN DRY AIR IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED
ON AN OVERALL ANALYSIS OF MUTLI-AGNECY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) AND A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 43
KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF
LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH
AND AREA OF WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS).
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TC 01S HAS WEAK POLEWARD OUTLOW
THAT IS BEGINNING TO TAP INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY JET. TC
DAHLIA IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AUSTRALIAN CONTINENT. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIMITED
INTENSIFICATION AS THE OUTFLOW TAPS INTO THE MID-LATITUDE JET AND
THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE. AFTER TAU 48, THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DECAY AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES
UNFAVORABLE. COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AN UNFAVORABLE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING TROUGH, AND AN EXTENSIVE DRY
AIR MASS WILL COMBINE TO DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM OVER WATER BY TAU 72.
IN THE LATER TAUS, THE STEERING RIDGE RETROGRADES TO THE NORTH AND
THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TURN TO THE EAST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
STRONG AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK MOTION THROUGH TAU 48, BUT BEGINS TO
DIVERGE THEREAFTER DUE TO THE RAPIDLY WEAKENING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM
AND THE VARIATION IN THE FORECASTED RETROGRADING OF THE STEERING
TROUGH. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY, THE FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030900Z AND 032100Z.//

2017-12-02 16:01

WTXS51 PGTW 021500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 01S SIO 171202140853
2017120212 01S DAHLIA 011 01 105 07 SATL 040
T000 112S 1120E 035 R034 045 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD
T012 126S 1121E 040 R034 075 NE QD 070 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 146S 1118E 040 R034 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 169S 1112E 040 R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 179S 1112E 035 R034 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T072 188S 1124E 025
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 11.2S 112.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2S 112.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 12.6S 112.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

2017-12-02 16:01

WTXS51 PGTW 021500
WARNING ATCG MIL 01S SIO 171202140853
2017120212 01S DAHLIA 011 01 105 07 SATL 040
T000 112S 1120E 035 R034 045 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD
T012 126S 1121E 040 R034 075 NE QD 070 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 146S 1118E 040 R034 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 169S 1112E 040 R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 179S 1112E 035 R034 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T072 188S 1124E 025
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 11.2S 112.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2S 112.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 12.6S 112.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 14.6S 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.9S 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 17.9S 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 18.8S 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 11.6S 112.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 677 NM NORTH
OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.
//
0117112718 74S 978E 25
0117112800 77S 984E 25
0117112806 80S 991E 25
0117112812 82S 998E 25
0117112818 84S1004E 25
0117112900 85S1010E 30
0117112906 88S1019E 30
0117112912 89S1029E 30
0117112918 89S1034E 30
0117113000 89S1044E 35
0117113006 89S1062E 40
0117113012 93S1076E 45
0117113018 96S1081E 45
0117120100 97S1090E 50
0117120100 97S1090E 50
0117120106 102S1096E 50
0117120106 102S1096E 50
0117120112 105S1100E 50
0117120112 105S1100E 50
0117120118 107S1104E 55
0117120118 107S1104E 55
0117120200 109S1107E 50
0117120206 110S1113E 45
0117120212 112S1120E 35

2017-12-02 16:01

WTXS31 PGTW 021500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 11.2S 112.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2S 112.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 12.6S 112.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 14.6S 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2017-12-02 16:01

WTXS31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 11.2S 112.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2S 112.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 12.6S 112.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 14.6S 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.9S 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 17.9S 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 18.8S 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 11.6S 112.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 677 NM NORTH
OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH CONVECTION NEARLY
DIED OUT. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON
A LOW REFLECTIVITY FEATURE OBSERVED IN A 021224Z 89GHZ AMSU IMAGE
ALSO SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT PATCH OF DRY AIR BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND
THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER WEAK CIRCULATION CAN BE
OBSERVED IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM
CENTER, IMPEDING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO TC 01S. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON RECENT CURRENT
INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0 TO 2.5 (30 TO 35
KNOTS), AND A 43 KNOT SATCON ESTIMATE FROM 021223Z. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE AXIS TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM WITH
RELATIVELY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, MODERATE DIFFLUENCE, AND A
DEGRADING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AROUND 28 TO 29 CELSIUS, HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES DECLINE SHARPLY POLEWARD OF 15 DEGREES SOUTH.
COINCIDING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE, THE CIMSS TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATION SHOWS VERY DRY AIR WELL SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM WITH A BAND OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR BEGINNING TO FEED IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. TC 01S HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS AS A MID-TO-LOW LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE
AUSTRALIAN CONTINENT. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN EXTENDING NORTHWARD AND
STEER TC 01S TO THE SOUTH IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS AND THIS TRACK
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TAU 36. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
IMPROVE SLIGHTLY WITH AN ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER THE SYSTEM,
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH
BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KNOTS. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48, THE SOUTHWARD TRACK
WILL BRING TC 01S INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
COOLER SSTS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM, ONLY TO BE EXACERBATED BY A PASSING TROUGH INDUCING HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE STEERING RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE TO THE
NORTHEAST AS THE PASSING TROUGH ERODES THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
RIDGE, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO TURN ABRUPTLY TO THE EAST. TC 01S
SHOULD FULLY DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK MOTION THROUGH TAU 48,
BUT BEGINS TO DIVERGE THEREAFTER DUE TO THE RAPIDLY WEAKENING
INTENSITY. THE FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
021200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND
031500Z.//

2017-12-02 10:46

WTXS51 PGTW 020900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 01S SIO 171202082723
2017120206 01S DAHLIA 010 01 360 01 SATL 040
T000 108S 1107E 045 R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 119S 1107E 050 R050 015 NE QD 000 SE QD 005 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
065 NE QD 075 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 138S 1107E 055 R050 010 NE QD 005 SE QD 005 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
060 NE QD 075 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD
T036 158S 1103E 055 R050 005 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 171S 1098E 055 R050 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R034
025 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD
T072 190S 1106E 035
T096 198S 1131E 025
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 10.8S 110.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8S 110.7E
---
FORECASTS:

2017-12-02 10:46

WTXS51 PGTW 020900
WARNING ATCG MIL 01S SIO 171202082723
2017120206 01S DAHLIA 010 01 360 01 SATL 040
T000 108S 1107E 045 R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 119S 1107E 050 R050 015 NE QD 000 SE QD 005 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 075 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 138S 1107E 055 R050 010 NE QD 005 SE QD 005 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 075 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD
T036 158S 1103E 055 R050 005 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 171S 1098E 055 R050 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD
T072 190S 1106E 035
T096 198S 1131E 025
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 10.8S 110.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8S 110.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 11.9S 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 13.8S 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 15.8S 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 17.1S 109.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.0S 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.8S 113.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 11.1S 110.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 717 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 022100Z AND 030900Z.
//
0117112718 74S 978E 25
0117112800 77S 984E 25
0117112806 80S 991E 25
0117112812 82S 998E 25
0117112818 84S1004E 25
0117112900 85S1010E 30
0117112906 88S1019E 30
0117112912 89S1029E 30
0117112918 89S1034E 30
0117113000 89S1044E 35
0117113006 89S1062E 40
0117113012 93S1076E 45
0117113018 96S1081E 45
0117120100 97S1090E 50
0117120100 97S1090E 50
0117120106 102S1096E 50
0117120106 102S1096E 50
0117120112 105S1100E 50
0117120112 105S1100E 50
0117120118 107S1104E 55
0117120118 107S1104E 55
0117120200 109S1107E 50
0117120206 108S1107E 45

2017-12-02 10:46

WTXS31 PGTW 020900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 10.8S 110.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8S 110.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 11.9S 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 13.8S 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

2017-12-02 10:46

WTXS31 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 10.8S 110.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8S 110.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 11.9S 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 13.8S 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 15.8S 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 17.1S 109.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.0S 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.8S 113.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 11.1S 110.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 717 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYSTEM THAT HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS WITH RAPIDLY WEAKENING CONVECTION AND A DETERIORATING
STRUCTURE. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON
A LOW REFLECTIVITY FEATURE OBSERVED IN A 020603Z AMSR2 IMAGE ALSO
DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. ANOTHER WEAK CIRCULATION CAN BE
OBSERVED IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM
CENTER, IMPEDING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO TC 01S. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS WHICH IS GENEROUSLY BASED ON
RECENT CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS), WITH A
56 KNOT SATCON ESTIMATE FROM 020615Z DESPITE THE DEGRADED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE AXIS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM WITH, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, MODERATE DIFFLUENCE, AND A
WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AROUND 28 TO 29 CELSIUS, HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES DECLINE SHARPLY POLEWARD OF 15 DEGREES SOUTH. THE CIMSS
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATION SHOWS VERY DRY AIR WELL SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM WITH A BAND OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR BEGINNING TO FEED IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST, ALSO EVIDENT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE
IMAGE. A MID-TO-LOW LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER AUSTRALIA WILL BEGIN
EXTENDING NORTHWARD AND STEERING TC 01S TO THE SOUTH OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE
SLIGHTLY WITH AN ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER THE SYSTEM GIVING RISE
TO ANOTHER BRIEF INTENSIFICATION PHASE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
TC 01S IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS AND
MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY FOR THROUGH TAU 48. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48,
THE SOUTHWARD TRACK WILL BRING TC 01S INTO AN INCREASINGLY
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. COOLER SSTS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL
SET IN MOTION A WEAKENING TREND, WHICH WILL BE EXACERBATED BY A
PASSING TROUGH INDUCING HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE STEERING
RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE PASSING TROUGH ERODES
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO TURN
ABRUPTLY TO THE EAST. TC 01S SHOULD FULLY DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY
TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
TRACK MOTION THROUGH TAU 72, BUT BEGINS TO DIVERGE THEREAFTER DUE TO
THE RAPIDLY WEAKENING INTENSITY. THE FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500, 022100Z,
030300Z, AND 030900Z.//

2017-12-02 04:01

WTXS51 PGTW 020300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 01S SIO 171202021429
2017120200 01S DAHLIA 009 01 115 04 SATL 060
T000 109S 1108E 050 R034 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 114S 1110E 055 R050 025 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 025 NW QD R034
070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 055 NW QD
T024 126S 1111E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 005 SW QD 015 NW QD R034
065 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 145S 1109E 065 R064 005 NE QD 005 SE QD 005 SW QD 005 NW QD R050
015 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD
060 SW QD 045 NW QD
T048 166S 1106E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 005 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
025 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD
055 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 191S 1113E 040 R034 075 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 204S 1133E 025
T120 206S 1150E 020
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 10.9S 110.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

2017-12-02 04:01

WTXS51 PGTW 020300
WARNING ATCG MIL 01S SIO 171202021429
2017120200 01S DAHLIA 009 01 115 04 SATL 060
T000 109S 1108E 050 R034 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 114S 1110E 055 R050 025 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 055 NW QD
T024 126S 1111E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 005 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 145S 1109E 065 R064 005 NE QD 005 SE QD 005 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 015 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD
T048 166S 1106E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 005 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 191S 1113E 040 R034 075 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 204S 1133E 025
T120 206S 1150E 020
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 10.9S 110.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S 110.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 11.4S 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 12.6S 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 14.5S 110.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.6S 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.1S 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 20.4S 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 20.6S 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 11.0S 110.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 710 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.
//
0117112718 74S 978E 25
0117112800 77S 984E 25
0117112806 80S 991E 25
0117112812 82S 998E 25
0117112818 84S1004E 25
0117112900 85S1010E 30
0117112906 88S1019E 30
0117112912 89S1029E 30
0117112918 89S1034E 30
0117113000 89S1044E 35
0117113006 89S1062E 40
0117113012 93S1076E 45
0117113018 96S1081E 45
0117120100 97S1090E 50
0117120100 97S1090E 50
0117120106 102S1096E 50
0117120106 102S1096E 50
0117120112 105S1100E 50
0117120112 105S1100E 50
0117120118 107S1104E 55
0117120118 107S1104E 55
0117120200 109S1108E 50

2017-12-02 04:01

WTXS31 PGTW 020300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 10.9S 110.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S 110.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 11.4S 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 12.6S 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

2017-12-02 04:01

WTXS31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 10.9S 110.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S 110.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 11.4S 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 12.6S 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 14.5S 110.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.6S 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.1S 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 20.4S 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 20.6S 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 11.0S 110.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 710 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYSTEM BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CENTERED OVER THE ASSESSED AND OBSCURED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 012282Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWING A RATHER ELONGATED SWATH OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF
THE LLCC, WHICH CAN BE DENOTED BY THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CLOUD BANDING
VISIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE AREA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS, SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (50 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AS WELL AS
AN AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATES OF T3.2 (49 KNOTS).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN OVERALL
MODERATELY FAVORABLE AREA, WITH MODERATE (20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
NEAR 28-29 DEG CELSIUS. TC 01S HAS BECOME NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY,
BLOCKED FROM ADDITIONAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION BY THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED OVER NORTHERN AUSTRALIA. TC 01S WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY DRIFT TO A MORE SOUTHWARD HEADING OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS,
BEFORE ACCELERATING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF THE
STEERING RIDGE. TC DAHLIA WILL CONTINUE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 48. BY TAU 72, THE
STEERING RIDGE REORIENTS TO A MORE EAST-WEST AXIS, ALLOWING TC 01S
TO SHIFT TO AN EASTWARD TRACK TOWARDS THE WESTERN AUSTRALIA COAST.
THE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH LOW VWS, HIGH
SSTS AND GOOD OUTFLOW THROUGH TAU 48, SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS AROUND TAU
36. AFTER TAU 48, UPPER-LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
AND SHARPLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE TO
RAPIDLY WEAKEN TC 01S, FULLY DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM OVER WATER BY
TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT
HOWEVER, THE ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO TAKE THE SYSTEM OFF THE WEST
AFTER TAU 48. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS IN LINE WITH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, LEADING TO OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS
18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.//

2017-12-01 22:31

WTXS51 PGTW 012100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 01S SIO 171201202631
2017120118 01S DAHLIA 008 01 120 06 SATL 060
T000 109S 1107E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
075 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 115S 1110E 060 R050 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
080 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD
T024 124S 1112E 065 R064 000 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
025 NE QD 025 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 090 SE QD
080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 137S 1110E 070 R064 000 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
025 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD
070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 158S 1106E 070 R064 000 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
025 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD
065 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 191S 1111E 050 R050 015 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R034
065 NE QD 055 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 206S 1129E 035 R034 045 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 210S 1147E 025
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 10.9S 110.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

2017-12-01 22:31

WTXS51 PGTW 012100
WARNING ATCG MIL 01S SIO 171201202631
2017120118 01S DAHLIA 008 01 120 06 SATL 060
T000 109S 1107E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 115S 1110E 060 R050 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD
T024 124S 1112E 065 R064 000 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 137S 1110E 070 R064 000 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 158S 1106E 070 R064 000 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 191S 1111E 050 R050 015 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 055 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 206S 1129E 035 R034 045 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 210S 1147E 025
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 10.9S 110.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S 110.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 11.5S 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 12.4S 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 13.7S 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 15.8S 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 19.1S 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 20.6S 112.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 21.0S 114.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 11.1S 110.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 711 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z.
//
0117112718 74S 978E 25
0117112800 77S 984E 25
0117112806 80S 991E 25
0117112812 82S 998E 25
0117112818 84S1004E 25
0117112900 85S1010E 30
0117112906 88S1019E 30
0117112912 89S1029E 30
0117112918 89S1034E 30
0117113000 89S1044E 35
0117113006 89S1062E 40
0117113012 93S1076E 45
0117113018 96S1081E 45
0117120100 97S1090E 50
0117120100 97S1090E 50
0117120106 102S1096E 50
0117120106 102S1096E 50
0117120112 106S1102E 50
0117120112 106S1102E 50
0117120118 109S1107E 55
0117120118 109S1107E 55

2017-12-01 22:16

WTXS31 PGTW 012100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 10.9S 110.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S 110.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 11.5S 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2017-12-01 22:16

WTXS31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 10.9S 110.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S 110.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 11.5S 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 12.4S 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 13.7S 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 15.8S 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 19.1S 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 20.6S 112.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 21.0S 114.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 11.1S 110.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 711 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASING DEEP CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATION OF A 011410Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A
WEAK LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION MOSTLY ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (50 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM KNES
AS WELL AS AN AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATE OF T3.3 (51
KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM LIES IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND HIGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NEAR 28-29 DEG CELSIUS. TC 01S HAS SLOWED OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS AS IT SLOWLY BEGINS TO TURN MORE SOUTHEASTWARD. TC DAHLIA
WILL SLOWLY TURN TO A SOUTH, THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK BY TAU
24 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN
AUSTRALIA. BY TAU 72, THE STEERING RIDGE REORIENTS TO A MORE EAST-
WEST AXIS, ALLOWING TC 01S TO SHIFT TO AN EASTWARD TRACK TOWARDS THE
WESTERN AUSTRALIA COAST. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
FAVORABLE WITH LOW VWS, HIGH SSTS AND GOOD OUTFLOW, SUPPORTING
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, REACHING A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS AROUND TAU 36. AFTER ABOUT TAU 60, THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TRACKING OVER COOLER WATERS (LESS THAN 26 DEG
CELSIUS), AND BEGIN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO THE LOSS OF ENERGY
SOURCE. TC 01S IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT,
THOUGH WITH A BIFURCATION IN THE MODELS AFTER TAU 72 WITH ECMWF AND
ITS ENSEMBLE TAKING THE SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS OPEN
WATERS, WHILE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN TURN THE SYSTEM DUE NORTH.
THE REMAINDER OF THE MODEL DATA LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE JTWC TRACK LIES NEAR THE CONSENSUS AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. DUE TO THE INCREASING SPREAD AND DEVELOPING
BIFURCATION OF THE MODEL TRACKERS THERE IS OVERALL HIGH, BUT
DECREASING, CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z.//

2017-12-01 16:16

WTXS51 PGTW 011500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 01S SIO 171201144654
2017120112 01S DAHLIA 007 01 110 09 SATL 040
T000 105S 1105E 050 R050 050 NE QD 025 SE QD 030 SW QD 045 NW QD R034
100 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 113S 1108E 055 R050 035 NE QD 020 SE QD 025 SW QD 035 NW QD R034
095 NE QD 060 SE QD 065 SW QD 075 NW QD
T024 120S 1107E 060 R050 035 NE QD 020 SE QD 025 SW QD 035 NW QD R034
070 NE QD 060 SE QD 065 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 132S 1103E 065 R064 015 NE QD 005 SE QD 005 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
035 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 065 SE QD
065 SW QD 055 NW QD
T048 150S 1100E 065 R064 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 060 SE QD
060 SW QD 055 NW QD
T072 182S 1108E 055 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
070 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 203S 1124E 035 R034 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD
T120 210S 1148E 020
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 10.5S 110.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

2017-12-01 16:16

WTXS51 PGTW 011500
WARNING ATCG MIL 01S SIO 171201144654
2017120112 01S DAHLIA 007 01 110 09 SATL 040
T000 105S 1105E 050 R050 050 NE QD 025 SE QD 030 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 113S 1108E 055 R050 035 NE QD 020 SE QD 025 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 060 SE QD 065 SW QD 075 NW QD
T024 120S 1107E 060 R050 035 NE QD 020 SE QD 025 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 065 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 132S 1103E 065 R064 015 NE QD 005 SE QD 005 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD
T048 150S 1100E 065 R064 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD
T072 182S 1108E 055 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 203S 1124E 035 R034 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD
T120 210S 1148E 020
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 10.5S 110.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.5S 110.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 11.3S 110.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 12.0S 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 13.2S 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 15.0S 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.2S 110.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.3S 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 21.0S 114.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 10.7S 110.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 738 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 020300Z AND 021500Z.
//
0117112718 74S 978E 25
0117112800 77S 984E 25
0117112806 80S 991E 25
0117112812 82S 998E 25
0117112818 84S1004E 25
0117112900 85S1010E 30
0117112906 88S1019E 30
0117112912 89S1029E 30
0117112918 89S1034E 30
0117113000 89S1044E 35
0117113006 89S1062E 40
0117113012 93S1076E 45
0117113018 96S1081E 45
0117120100 97S1090E 50
0117120100 97S1090E 50
0117120106 102S1096E 50
0117120106 102S1096E 50
0117120112 105S1105E 50
0117120112 105S1105E 50

2017-12-01 16:16

WTXS31 PGTW 011500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 10.5S 110.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.5S 110.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 11.3S 110.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2017-12-01 16:16

WTXS31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 10.5S 110.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.5S 110.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 11.3S 110.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 12.0S 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 13.2S 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 15.0S 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.2S 110.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.3S 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 21.0S 114.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 10.7S 110.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 738 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION WAS PLACED WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 011119Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS 50 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65
KNOTS)FROM KNES AND T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND A SATCON ESTIMATE
OF 45 KNOTS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) AND
BOTH POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAIN GOOD. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM (28 TO
29 DEGREES CELSIUS) BUT WILL BECOME UNFAVORABLE (25 DEGREES CELSIUS)
AFTER TAU 72. TC 01S WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF THE
SOUTHWARD TURN. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100, 020300Z, 020900, AND 021500Z.//

2017-12-01 09:31

WTXS51 PGTW 010900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 01S SIO 171201073809
2017120106 01S DAHLIA 006 01 130 08 SATL 040
T000 102S 1096E 050 R050 035 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 035 NW QD R034
060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 111S 1102E 055 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
080 NE QD 045 SE QD 075 SW QD 075 NW QD
T024 120S 1101E 055 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
065 NE QD 055 SE QD 065 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 131S 1099E 060 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
070 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 146S 1096E 060 R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
075 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD
T072 179S 1099E 045 R034 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 203S 1119E 035 R034 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 214S 1143E 020
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 10.2S 109.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

2017-12-01 09:31

WTXS51 PGTW 010900
WARNING ATCG MIL 01S SIO 171201073809
2017120106 01S DAHLIA 006 01 130 08 SATL 040
T000 102S 1096E 050 R050 035 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 111S 1102E 055 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 045 SE QD 075 SW QD 075 NW QD
T024 120S 1101E 055 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 055 SE QD 065 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 131S 1099E 060 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 146S 1096E 060 R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD
T072 179S 1099E 045 R034 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 203S 1119E 035 R034 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 214S 1143E 020
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 10.2S 109.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2S 109.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 11.1S 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 12.0S 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 13.1S 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 14.6S 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 17.9S 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 20.3S 111.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 21.4S 114.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 10.4S 109.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 771 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 012100Z AND 020900Z.
//
0117112718 74S 978E 25
0117112800 77S 984E 25
0117112806 80S 991E 25
0117112812 82S 998E 25
0117112818 84S1004E 25
0117112900 85S1010E 30
0117112906 88S1019E 30
0117112912 89S1029E 30
0117112918 89S1034E 30
0117113000 89S1044E 35
0117113006 89S1062E 40
0117113012 93S1076E 45
0117113018 96S1081E 45
0117120100 97S1090E 50
0117120100 97S1090E 50
0117120106 102S1096E 50
0117120106 102S1096E 50

2017-12-01 09:31

WTXS31 PGTW 010900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 10.2S 109.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2S 109.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 11.1S 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2017-12-01 09:16

WTXS31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 10.2S 109.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2S 109.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 11.1S 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 12.0S 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 13.1S 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 14.6S 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 17.9S 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 20.3S 111.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 21.4S 114.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 10.4S 109.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 771 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING AND CONSOLIDATING
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE INITIAL POSITION WAS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
010232Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 50 KNOTS, BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND T3.0 (45 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FAVORABLE (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND BOTH
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAIN GOOD. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM (28 TO
29 DEGREES CELSIUS) BUT WILL BECOME UNFAVORABLE (25 DEGREES CELSIUS)
BY TAU 72. TC 01S WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA. AS TC 01S
TRACKS SOUTHWARD OVER THE COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IT WILL
DECREASE IN INTENSITY BEFORE DISSIPATING. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING TO HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z, AND 020900Z.//

2017-12-01 04:01

WTXS31 PGTW 010300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 9.7S 109.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.7S 109.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 11.0S 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2017-12-01 04:01

WTXS31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 9.7S 109.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.7S 109.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 11.0S 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 12.1S 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 13.4S 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 15.0S 109.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 17.8S 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.7S 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 20.9S 112.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 10.0S 109.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 811 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CLUSTER OF DEEP BUT DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
OF TC 01S. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE
USING A 302240Z SSMIS 37GHZ AND 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE LLCC. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED SLIGHTLY TO 50 KNOTS, GIVEN DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.0 (KNES) TO T3.0 (PGTW), WITH SUPPORT FROM
A 302253Z WINDSAT PASS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED OVER THE
SYSTEM (25 TO 30 KNOTS), SO ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
THEREAFTER, TC 01S IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER WATER AS
IT TRAVERSES THE COLDER WATERS OFF OF NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA.
DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH THE SYSTEM TRACKING
COUNTER-CLOCKWISE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE, SO THERE IS HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.//

2017-12-01 03:46

WTXS51 PGTW 010300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 01S SIO 171201022342
2017120100 01S DAHLIA 005 01 095 09 SATL 060
T000 097S 1090E 050 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
095 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 110S 1100E 050 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
090 NE QD 055 SE QD 060 SW QD 075 NW QD
T024 121S 1100E 055 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 025 NW QD R034
060 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 134S 1095E 055 R050 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034
060 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 150S 1091E 055 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
065 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 178S 1093E 050 R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
065 NE QD 055 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD
T096 197S 1105E 040 R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD
T120 209S 1129E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 9.7S 109.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

2017-12-01 03:46

WTXS51 PGTW 010300
WARNING ATCG MIL 01S SIO 171201022342
2017120100 01S DAHLIA 005 01 095 09 SATL 060
T000 097S 1090E 050 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 110S 1100E 050 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 055 SE QD 060 SW QD 075 NW QD
T024 121S 1100E 055 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 134S 1095E 055 R050 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 150S 1091E 055 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 178S 1093E 050 R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 055 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD
T096 197S 1105E 040 R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD
T120 209S 1129E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 9.7S 109.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.7S 109.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 11.0S 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 12.1S 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 13.4S 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 15.0S 109.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 17.8S 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.7S 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 20.9S 112.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 10.0S 109.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 811 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 011500Z AND 020300Z.
//
0117112718 74S 978E 25
0117112800 77S 984E 25
0117112806 80S 991E 25
0117112812 82S 998E 25
0117112818 84S1004E 25
0117112900 85S1010E 30
0117112906 88S1019E 30
0117112912 89S1029E 30
0117112918 89S1034E 30
0117113000 89S1044E 35
0117113006 89S1062E 40
0117113012 93S1076E 45
0117113018 96S1081E 45
0117120100 97S1090E 50
0117120100 97S1090E 50

2017-11-30 22:16

WTXS51 PGTW 302100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 01S SIO 171130204142
2017113018 01S DAHLIA 004 01 120 06 SATL 060
T000 096S 1081E 045 R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 075 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 104S 1094E 050 R050 030 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
090 NE QD 055 SE QD 095 SW QD 095 NW QD
T024 119S 1096E 055 R050 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 025 NW QD R034
070 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 134S 1092E 055 R050 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
070 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 152S 1089E 055 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
080 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 182S 1090E 050 R050 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
080 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 209S 1106E 040 R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 105 SW QD 075 NW QD
T120 217S 1131E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 9.6S 108.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

2017-11-30 22:16

WTXS51 PGTW 302100
WARNING ATCG MIL 01S SIO 171130204142
2017113018 01S DAHLIA 004 01 120 06 SATL 060
T000 096S 1081E 045 R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 075 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 104S 1094E 050 R050 030 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 055 SE QD 095 SW QD 095 NW QD
T024 119S 1096E 055 R050 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 134S 1092E 055 R050 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 152S 1089E 055 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 182S 1090E 050 R050 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 209S 1106E 040 R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 105 SW QD 075 NW QD
T120 217S 1131E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 9.6S 108.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.6S 108.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 10.4S 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 11.9S 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 13.4S 109.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 15.2S 108.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.2S 109.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 20.9S 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 21.7S 113.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 9.8S 108.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 837 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 010900Z AND 012100Z.
//
0117112718 74S 978E 25
0117112800 77S 984E 25
0117112806 80S 991E 25
0117112812 82S 998E 25
0117112818 84S1004E 25
0117112900 85S1010E 30
0117112906 88S1019E 30
0117112912 89S1029E 30
0117112918 89S1034E 30
0117113000 89S1044E 35
0117113006 89S1062E 40
0117113012 93S1076E 45
0117113018 96S1081E 45

2017-11-30 22:16

WTXS31 PGTW 302100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 9.6S 108.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.6S 108.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 10.4S 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 11.9S 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

2017-11-30 22:16

WTXS31 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 9.6S 108.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.6S 108.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 10.4S 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 11.9S 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 13.4S 109.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 15.2S 108.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.2S 109.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 20.9S 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 21.7S 113.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 9.8S 108.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 837 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION NEAR BUT SLIGHTLY
SHEARED TO THE WEST OF A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING IS EVIDENT IN A 301636Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE, LENDING GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION ESTIMATE. TC
01S CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED FROM THE EAST, BUT THE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR MAGNITUDE IS LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS). THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS AT 45 KNOTS, GIVEN THE STEADY-STATE NATURE OF THE CONVECTION
WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAINING AT T3.0. TC 01S IS
BEGINNING ITS TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) BUILDING OVER NORTHERN AUSTRLIA. AT LATER TAUS, THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE EAST AS IT ROUNDS THE
STR. BEYOND TAU 72, COOL WATERS (SST LESS THAN 26C) WILL WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM, WITH DISSIPATION OVER WATER EXPECTED BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, SO THERE IS HIGH OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z AND 012100Z.
//

2017-11-30 15:46

WTXS51 PGTW 301500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 01S SIO 171130132738
2017113012 01S DAHLIA 003 01 105 14 SATL 030
T000 093S 1076E 045 R034 140 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 103S 1093E 050 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
100 NE QD 075 SE QD 060 SW QD 135 NW QD
T024 115S 1099E 055 R050 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
080 NE QD 090 SE QD 065 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 128S 1097E 055 R050 035 NE QD 025 SE QD 010 SW QD 035 NW QD R034
080 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 143S 1093E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 015 SW QD 025 NW QD R034
075 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW QD 055 NW QD
T072 176S 1091E 050 R050 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R034
055 NE QD 085 SE QD 070 SW QD 035 NW QD
T096 209S 1100E 040 R034 115 NE QD 115 SE QD 105 SW QD 075 NW QD
T120 238S 1131E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 9.3S 107.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

2017-11-30 15:46

WTXS51 PGTW 301500
WARNING ATCG MIL 01S SIO 171130132738
2017113012 01S DAHLIA 003 01 105 14 SATL 030
T000 093S 1076E 045 R034 140 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 103S 1093E 050 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 075 SE QD 060 SW QD 135 NW QD
T024 115S 1099E 055 R050 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 065 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 128S 1097E 055 R050 035 NE QD 025 SE QD 010 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 143S 1093E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 015 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW QD 055 NW QD
T072 176S 1091E 050 R050 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 055 NE QD 085 SE QD 070 SW QD 035 NW QD
T096 209S 1100E 040 R034 115 NE QD 115 SE QD 105 SW QD 075 NW QD
T120 238S 1131E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 9.3S 107.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.3S 107.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 10.3S 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 11.5S 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 12.8S 109.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 14.3S 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 17.6S 109.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 20.9S 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 23.8S 113.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 9.6S 108.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 865 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z.
//
0117112718 74S 978E 25
0117112800 77S 984E 25
0117112806 80S 991E 25
0117112812 82S 998E 25
0117112818 84S1004E 25
0117112900 85S1010E 30
0117112906 88S1019E 30
0117112912 89S1029E 30
0117112918 89S1034E 30
0117113000 89S1044E 35
0117113006 89S1062E 40
0117113012 93S1076E 45

2017-11-30 15:46

WTXS31 PGTW 301500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 9.3S 107.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.3S 107.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 10.3S 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 11.5S 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

2017-11-30 15:31

WTXS31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 9.3S 107.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.3S 107.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 10.3S 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 11.5S 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 12.8S 109.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 14.3S 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 17.6S 109.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 20.9S 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 23.8S 113.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 9.6S 108.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 865 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING, HOWEVER, A
301132Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE INDICATES THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER IS
DISPLACED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO
MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC 01S IS FORECAST
TO TURN SHARPLY SOUTHWARD AFTER TAU 12 AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 55 KNOTS BY
TAU 24 BUT OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE LIMITING INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 72, TC 01S WILL TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER COOLER SST AND ENCOUNTER INCREASING VWS
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES OVER NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA,
WHICH WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND LEAD TO EVENTUAL
DISSIPATION AS TC DAHLIA APPROACHES THE LEARMONTH AREA. DYNAMIC
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 010300Z,
010900Z AND 011500Z.//

2017-11-30 10:31

WTXS51 PGTW 300900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 01S SIO 171130074447
2017113006 01S DAHLIA 002 01 090 18 SATL 050
T000 089S 1062E 035 R034 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 097S 1081E 040 R034 105 NE QD 055 SE QD 065 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 106S 1093E 040 R034 080 NE QD 055 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 118S 1095E 045 R034 065 NE QD 085 SE QD 055 SW QD 065 NW QD
T048 131S 1092E 050 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R034
060 NE QD 085 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 161S 1085E 050 R050 000 NE QD 025 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
060 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 045 NW QD
T096 191S 1092E 045 R034 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD
T120 218S 1114E 035 R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 8.9S 106.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.9S 106.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 9.7S 108.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

2017-11-30 10:31

WTXS51 PGTW 300900
WARNING ATCG MIL 01S SIO 171130074447
2017113006 01S DAHLIA 002 01 090 18 SATL 050
T000 089S 1062E 035 R034 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 097S 1081E 040 R034 105 NE QD 055 SE QD 065 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 106S 1093E 040 R034 080 NE QD 055 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 118S 1095E 045 R034 065 NE QD 085 SE QD 055 SW QD 065 NW QD
T048 131S 1092E 050 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 085 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 161S 1085E 050 R050 000 NE QD 025 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 045 NW QD
T096 191S 1092E 045 R034 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD
T120 218S 1114E 035 R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 8.9S 106.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.9S 106.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 9.7S 108.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 10.6S 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 11.8S 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 13.1S 109.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 16.1S 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 19.1S 109.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 21.8S 111.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 9.1S 106.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 924 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT
18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 302100Z AND 010900Z.
//
0117112718 74S 978E 25
0117112800 77S 984E 25
0117112806 80S 991E 25
0117112812 82S 998E 25
0117112818 84S1004E 25
0117112900 85S1010E 30
0117112906 88S1019E 30
0117112912 89S1029E 30
0117112918 89S1034E 30
0117113000 89S1044E 35
0117113006 89S1062E 35

2017-11-30 10:31

WTXS31 PGTW 300900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 8.9S 106.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.9S 106.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 9.7S 108.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 10.6S 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2017-11-30 10:31

WTXS31 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 8.9S 106.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.9S 106.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 9.7S 108.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 10.6S 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 11.8S 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 13.1S 109.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 16.1S 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 19.1S 109.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 21.8S 111.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 9.1S 106.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 924 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT
18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION ESPECIALLY TO THE
WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 300252Z AMSU 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 FROM PGTW AND KNES. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS UNFAVORABLE (30 KNOTS), WHICH IS OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD
AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE
(28-29 DEGREE CELSIUS). TC 01S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TOWARDS THE
EAST, BUT WILL BEGIN TO TURN TO THE SOUTH AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS IN ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL
THEN PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN AND WILL TURN THE SYSTEM
ONCE AGAIN BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. TC 01S IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS BY AROUND TAU 48.
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW
FOR TC 01S TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY BEYOND TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 302100Z, 010300Z AND 010900Z.//