Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for BERGUITTA-18
in Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius

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2018-01-20 13:16

WTIO24 FMEE 201305 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/01/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 031/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 20/01/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3 (EX-BERGUITTA) 982 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 31.1 S / 49.4 E
(THIRTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 18 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER UP TO 450 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 120 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 250
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/21 AT 00 UTC:
32.8 S / 49.8 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/01/21 AT 12 UTC:
33.7 S / 52.1 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THIS IS THE LAST WARNING EMMITTED BY THE RSMC ON EX-BERGUITTA SYSTEM,
WHICH WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED BY BULLETIN FQIO20 FMEE.=

2018-01-20 12:31

WTIO24 FMEE 201220
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/01/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 031/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 20/01/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3 (EX-BERGUITTA) 982 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 31.1 S / 49.4 E
(THIRTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 18 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER UP TO 450 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 120 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 250
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/21 AT 00 UTC:
32.8 S / 49.8 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/01/21 AT 12 UTC:
33.7 S / 52.1 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THIS IS THE LAST WARNING EMMITTED BY THE RSMC ON THIS SYSTEM.=

2018-01-20 12:16

WTIO24 FMEE 201210
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/01/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 20/01/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3 (EX-BERGUITTA) 982 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 31.1 S / 49.4 E
(THIRTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 18 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER UP TO 450 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 120 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 250
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 120 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 250
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/21 AT 00 UTC:
32.8 S / 49.8 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/01/21 AT 12 UTC:
33.7 S / 52.1 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THIS IS THE LAST WARNING EMMITTED BY THE RSMC ON THIS SYSTEM.=

2018-01-20 08:16

WTXS51 PGTW 200900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 180120072936
2018012006 06S BERGUITTA 031 01 205 17 SATL 025
T000 295S 0496E 045 R034 230 NE QD 240 SE QD 220 SW QD 180 NW QD
T012 321S 0495E 045 R034 235 NE QD 335 SE QD 275 SW QD 185 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 031
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 031
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 29.5S 49.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.5S 49.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 32.1S 49.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
335 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 30.1S 49.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 622 NM

2018-01-20 08:16

WTXS51 PGTW 200900
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 180120072936
2018012006 06S BERGUITTA 031 01 205 17 SATL 025
T000 295S 0496E 045 R034 230 NE QD 240 SE QD 220 SW QD 180 NW QD
T012 321S 0495E 045 R034 235 NE QD 335 SE QD 275 SW QD 185 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 031
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 031
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 29.5S 49.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.5S 49.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 32.1S 49.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
335 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 30.1S 49.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 622 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z
IS 30 FEET.
//
0618011100 130S 679E 15
0618011106 131S 683E 20
0618011112 137S 687E 30
0618011118 146S 690E 30
0618011200 153S 690E 30
0618011206 162S 685E 30
0618011212 168S 676E 30
0618011218 170S 669E 35
0618011300 174S 658E 35
0618011306 176S 651E 40
0618011312 181S 644E 45
0618011318 182S 638E 40
0618011400 182S 634E 50
0618011400 182S 634E 50
0618011406 182S 632E 55
0618011406 182S 632E 55
0618011412 181S 631E 55
0618011412 181S 631E 55
0618011418 180S 631E 55
0618011418 180S 631E 55
0618011500 178S 632E 65
0618011500 178S 632E 65
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011512 180S 630E 90
0618011512 180S 630E 90
0618011512 180S 630E 90
0618011518 180S 626E 100
0618011518 180S 626E 100
0618011518 180S 626E 100
0618011600 180S 621E 100
0618011600 180S 621E 100
0618011600 180S 621E 100
0618011606 180S 616E 95
0618011606 180S 616E 95
0618011606 180S 616E 95
0618011612 181S 612E 85
0618011612 181S 612E 85
0618011612 181S 612E 85
0618011618 181S 609E 80
0618011618 181S 609E 80
0618011618 181S 609E 80
0618011700 181S 606E 75
0618011700 181S 606E 75
0618011700 181S 606E 75
0618011706 182S 602E 70
0618011706 182S 602E 70
0618011706 182S 602E 70
0618011712 185S 599E 65
0618011712 185S 599E 65
0618011712 185S 599E 65
0618011718 190S 594E 65
0618011718 190S 594E 65
0618011800 197S 585E 65
0618011800 197S 585E 65
0618011800 197S 585E 65
0618011806 207S 576E 65
0618011806 207S 576E 65
0618011806 207S 576E 65
0618011812 215S 566E 65
0618011812 215S 566E 65
0618011812 215S 566E 65
0618011818 221S 550E 60
0618011818 221S 550E 60
0618011900 228S 542E 55
0618011900 228S 542E 55
0618011906 238S 534E 55
0618011906 238S 534E 55
0618011912 249S 525E 50
0618011912 249S 525E 50
0618011918 261S 512E 50
0618011918 261S 512E 50
0618012000 279S 504E 45
0618012006 295S 496E 45

2018-01-20 08:16

WTXS31 PGTW 200900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 031
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 29.5S 49.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.5S 49.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 32.1S 49.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
335 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 30.1S 49.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 622 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DETERIORATING SYSTEM WITH A FULLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) BECOMING SLIGHTLY ELONGATED OVER

2018-01-20 08:16

WTXS31 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 031
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 29.5S 49.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.5S 49.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 32.1S 49.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
335 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 30.1S 49.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 622 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DETERIORATING SYSTEM WITH A FULLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) BECOMING SLIGHTLY ELONGATED OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
WHICH IS BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON A BULLSEYE 200527Z METOP-B
ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING THE MAXIMUM WINDS EXPANDING OUT TO APPROXIMATELY
80-100NM FROM THE LLCC WITH A SOLID REGION OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS ON THE
EASTERN SIDE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS INCREASING RAPIDLY AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST INTERACTS
WITH TC 06S. TC 06S HAS ALSO MOVED INTO AN AREA OF COLD (24 CELSIUS)
WATER, AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE POLEWARD, RAPIDLY TRANSITIONING
INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 30
FEET.//

2018-01-20 06:16

WTIO22 FMEE 200605
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/01/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 030/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 20/01/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3 (EX-BERGUITTA) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.6 S / 50.3 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 16 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER UP TO 350 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT, LOCALLY STORM FORCE IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 110 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE,
EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 230 NM IN
THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 280 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 220
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 230 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 320 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/20 AT 18 UTC:
32.2 S / 49.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/01/21 AT 06 UTC:
33.3 S / 50.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-01-20 02:31

WTXS51 PGTW 200300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 180120014409
2018012000 06S BERGUITTA 030 01 205 20 SATL 060
T000 279S 0503E 045 R034 140 NE QD 240 SE QD 200 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 306S 0496E 045 R034 195 NE QD 285 SE QD 225 SW QD 165 NW QD
T024 326S 0502E 045 R034 220 NE QD 300 SE QD 245 SW QD 210 NW QD
T036 338S 0526E 040 R034 190 NE QD 285 SE QD 275 SW QD 245 NW QD
AMP
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 030
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 27.9S 50.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.9S 50.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 30.6S 49.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-01-20 02:31

WTXS51 PGTW 200300
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 180120014409
2018012000 06S BERGUITTA 030 01 205 20 SATL 060
T000 279S 0503E 045 R034 140 NE QD 240 SE QD 200 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 306S 0496E 045 R034 195 NE QD 285 SE QD 225 SW QD 165 NW QD
T024 326S 0502E 045 R034 220 NE QD 300 SE QD 245 SW QD 210 NW QD
T036 338S 0526E 040 R034 190 NE QD 285 SE QD 275 SW QD 245 NW QD
AMP
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 030
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 27.9S 50.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.9S 50.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 30.6S 49.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 32.6S 50.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 33.8S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
245 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 28.6S 50.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 521 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.//
0618011100 130S 679E 15
0618011106 131S 683E 20
0618011112 137S 687E 30
0618011118 146S 690E 30
0618011200 153S 690E 30
0618011206 162S 685E 30
0618011212 168S 676E 30
0618011218 170S 669E 35
0618011300 174S 658E 35
0618011306 176S 651E 40
0618011312 181S 644E 45
0618011318 182S 638E 40
0618011400 182S 634E 50
0618011400 182S 634E 50
0618011406 182S 632E 55
0618011406 182S 632E 55
0618011412 181S 631E 55
0618011412 181S 631E 55
0618011418 180S 631E 55
0618011418 180S 631E 55
0618011500 178S 632E 65
0618011500 178S 632E 65
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011512 180S 630E 90
0618011512 180S 630E 90
0618011512 180S 630E 90
0618011518 180S 626E 100
0618011518 180S 626E 100
0618011518 180S 626E 100
0618011600 180S 621E 100
0618011600 180S 621E 100
0618011600 180S 621E 100
0618011606 180S 616E 95
0618011606 180S 616E 95
0618011606 180S 616E 95
0618011612 181S 612E 85
0618011612 181S 612E 85
0618011612 181S 612E 85
0618011618 181S 609E 80
0618011618 181S 609E 80
0618011618 181S 609E 80
0618011700 181S 606E 75
0618011700 181S 606E 75
0618011700 181S 606E 75
0618011706 182S 602E 70
0618011706 182S 602E 70
0618011706 182S 602E 70
0618011712 185S 599E 65
0618011712 185S 599E 65
0618011712 185S 599E 65
0618011718 190S 594E 65
0618011718 190S 594E 65
0618011800 197S 585E 65
0618011800 197S 585E 65
0618011800 197S 585E 65
0618011806 207S 576E 65
0618011806 207S 576E 65
0618011806 207S 576E 65
0618011812 215S 566E 65
0618011812 215S 566E 65
0618011812 215S 566E 65
0618011818 221S 550E 60
0618011818 221S 550E 60
0618011900 228S 542E 55
0618011900 228S 542E 55
0618011906 238S 534E 55
0618011906 238S 534E 55
0618011912 249S 525E 50
0618011912 249S 525E 50
0618011918 261S 512E 50
0618011918 261S 512E 50
0618012000 279S 503E 45

2018-01-20 02:31

WTXS31 PGTW 200300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 27.9S 50.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.9S 50.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 30.6S 49.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 32.6S 50.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-01-20 02:31

WTXS31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 27.9S 50.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.9S 50.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 30.6S 49.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 32.6S 50.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 33.8S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
245 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 28.6S 50.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 521 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 06S IS
CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A
200015Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING THE REMAINING
CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS
AVERAGED BETWEEN DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T3.5
(55 KNOTS) FROM FMEE, T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND T2.5 (35 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(15 TO 20 KNOTS) AND A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TC 06S IS
BEGINNING TO TRACK OVER UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, NEAR
25 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 06S IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. TC 06S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 12 AND THEN TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR.
THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 45 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 24 AND DECREASE
TO 40 KNOTS BY TAU 36. TC 06S WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) BY TAU 12 AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
200000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND
210300Z.//

2018-01-20 00:46

WTIO31 FMEE 200022

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 29/3/20172018
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 3 (BERGUITTA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 20/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 27.9 S / 50.8 E
(VINGT SEPT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET CINQUANTE DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 15 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 980 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 410 SE: 740 SO: 590 NO: 430
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 520 SO: 430 NO: 200



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 20/01/2018 12 UTC: 31.1 S / 50.0 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
24H: 21/01/2018 00 UTC: 32.9 S / 50.3 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 21/01/2018 12 UTC: 33.8 S / 52.4 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 22/01/2018 00 UTC: 34.6 S / 55.1 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 22/01/2018 12 UTC: 36.2 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 23/01/2018 00 UTC: 37.6 S / 59.5 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 24/01/2018 00 UTC: 39.0 S / 60.4 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
120H: 25/01/2018 00 UTC: 39.6 S / 60.6 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=3.0- CI=3.5-

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE S'EST
DEGRADEE. MALGRE QUELQUES POUSSEES CONVECTIVES, LES SOMMETS SE SONT
RECHAUFFES, SANS DOUTE AVEC LA BAISSE DU POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE
SOUS-JACENT. EN L'ABSENCE DE DONNEES DE MICRO-ONDES ET D'UNE PASSE
ASCAT COUVRANT ENTIEREMENT LE CENTRE, LA POSITION RESTE EXACTE RESTE
RELATIVEMENT INCERTAINE. LE CENTRE SUIVI DURANT LE PRECEDANT RESEAU
POURRAIT AVOIR DISPARU AU SEIN D'UNE LARGE ZONE PEU VENTEE.


LE SYSTEME A COMMENCE A ORIENTER SA TRAJECTOIRE RAPIDE VERS LE SUD
SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE DE MOYENNE ALTITUDE PRESENTE A L'EST.
A PARTIR DE CE SOIR, LE SYSTEME EST PREVU RALENTIR BLOQUA PAR UNE
NOUVELLE DORSALE QUI SE GLISSE AU SUD DU SYSTEME. POUR LA SUITE,
BERGUITTA DEVRAIT QUITTER LES LATITUDES TROPICALES EN SE DEPLACANT
VERS LE SUD-EST, ATTIREE PAR LE PASSAGE D'UN THALWEG AU SUD-EST. EN
FIN D'ECHEANCE, AVEC L'ARRIVEE D'UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE AU SUD-OUEST,
LE SYSTEME POURRAIT A NOUVEAU RALENTIR.


AUJOURD'HUI, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES VONT CONTINUER DE SE
DEGRADER. LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG D'ALTITUDE
VA S'ORIENTER AU NORD-OUEST ET VA DEVENIR PROGRESSIVEMENT FORT SUR LA
CIRCULATION. LE SYSTEME EST PREVU CONSERVER UN COEUR CHAUD PEU
PROFOND MALGRE SON INTERACTION AVEC LA ZONE BAROCLINE ET LE THALWEG
D'ALTITUDE. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, EN L'ABSENCE DE FORCAGE BAROCLINE, LA
FUTURE DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE POURRAIT ALORS SE COMBLER.=

2018-01-20 00:46

WTIO30 FMEE 200022

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 29/3/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/20 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.9 S / 50.8 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL
EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 410 SE: 740 SW: 590 NW: 430
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 520 SW: 430 NW: 200



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/20 12 UTC: 31.1 S / 50.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2018/01/21 00 UTC: 32.9 S / 50.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/01/21 12 UTC: 33.8 S / 52.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/01/22 00 UTC: 34.6 S / 55.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/01/22 12 UTC: 36.2 S / 57.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/01/23 00 UTC: 37.6 S / 59.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/24 00 UTC: 39.0 S / 60.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2018/01/25 00 UTC: 39.6 S / 60.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0- CI=3.5-

OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, BERGUITTA CLOUD PATTERN DETERIORATES.
DESPITE SOME CONVECTIVE BURSTS, CLOUD TOPS GOT WARMER, PROBABLY
BECAUSE OF THE DECAYING UNDERNEATH OCEANIC POTENTIAL. LACKING FROM
MICROWAVE DATA AND ASCAT SWATH OVER THE INNER CORE, CENTER LOCATION
IS RATHER UNCLEAR. THE CORE MONITORED LAST RUN, MAY HAVE VANISHED,
WITHIN A BROAD MOAT AREA.


BERGUITTA STARTED TO BEND PROGRESSIVELY SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING
FLOW GENERATING BY THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
FROM TODAY EVENING, BERGUITTA IS FORECASTED TO SLOW DOWN STOPPED BY A
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVING SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. NEXT, BERGUITTA IS
EXPECTED TO LEAVE TROPICAL LATITUDES, SOUTH-EASTWARDS, DRIVEN BY THE
PASSAGE OF A TROUGH AT SOUTH-EAST. AT LONG RANGE, THE ARRIVAL OF A
NEW RIDGE AT SOUTH-WEST MAY SLOW DOWN AGAIN THE LOW.


TODAY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO KEEP DETERIORATING WITH
A INCREASING NORTHWESTWARD VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AHEAD AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. DESPITE ITS INTERACTION WITH A BAROCLINIC AREA AND THE UPPER
TROUGH, BERGUITTA SHOULD KEEP A SHALLOW WARM CORE. NEXT WEEK, WITH
THE DECAY OF THE BAROCLINIC FORCING, THE FUTURE POST TROPICAL
DEPRESSION MAY THEN FILL UP.=

2018-01-20 00:16

WTIO22 FMEE 200008
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/01/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 029/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 20/01/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.9 S / 50.8 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
300 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT, LOCALLY STORM FORCE IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 110 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE,
EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 230 NM IN
THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 280 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 220
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 230 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 320 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/20 AT 12 UTC:
31.1 S / 50.0 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/01/21 AT 00 UTC:
32.9 S / 50.3 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-01-19 20:46

WTXS51 PGTW 192100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 180119194931
2018011918 06S BERGUITTA 029 01 215 21 SATL 060
T000 266S 0512E 050 R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
115 NE QD 250 SE QD 205 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 293S 0501E 045 R034 180 NE QD 270 SE QD 210 SW QD 125 NW QD
T024 317S 0500E 045 R034 190 NE QD 275 SE QD 210 SW QD 155 NW QD
T036 332S 0512E 040 R034 185 NE QD 305 SE QD 250 SW QD 225 NW QD
T048 340S 0536E 035 R034 170 NE QD 280 SE QD 275 SW QD 245 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 029
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 26.6S 51.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.6S 51.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 29.3S 50.1E

2018-01-19 20:46

WTXS51 PGTW 192100
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 180119194931
2018011918 06S BERGUITTA 029 01 215 21 SATL 060
T000 266S 0512E 050 R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 250 SE QD 205 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 293S 0501E 045 R034 180 NE QD 270 SE QD 210 SW QD 125 NW QD
T024 317S 0500E 045 R034 190 NE QD 275 SE QD 210 SW QD 155 NW QD
T036 332S 0512E 040 R034 185 NE QD 305 SE QD 250 SW QD 225 NW QD
T048 340S 0536E 035 R034 170 NE QD 280 SE QD 275 SW QD 245 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 029
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 26.6S 51.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.6S 51.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 29.3S 50.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 31.7S 50.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 33.2S 51.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
305 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
225 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 34.0S 53.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
245 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 27.3S 50.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 21
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.//
0618011100 130S 679E 15
0618011106 131S 683E 20
0618011112 137S 687E 30
0618011118 146S 690E 30
0618011200 153S 690E 30
0618011206 162S 685E 30
0618011212 168S 676E 30
0618011218 170S 669E 35
0618011300 174S 658E 35
0618011306 176S 651E 40
0618011312 181S 644E 40
0618011318 182S 638E 40
0618011400 182S 634E 50
0618011400 182S 634E 50
0618011406 182S 632E 55
0618011406 182S 632E 55
0618011412 181S 631E 55
0618011412 181S 631E 55
0618011418 180S 631E 55
0618011418 180S 631E 55
0618011500 178S 632E 65
0618011500 178S 632E 65
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011512 180S 630E 90
0618011512 180S 630E 90
0618011512 180S 630E 90
0618011518 180S 626E 100
0618011518 180S 626E 100
0618011518 180S 626E 100
0618011600 180S 621E 100
0618011600 180S 621E 100
0618011600 180S 621E 100
0618011606 180S 616E 95
0618011606 180S 616E 95
0618011606 180S 616E 95
0618011612 181S 612E 85
0618011612 181S 612E 85
0618011612 181S 612E 85
0618011618 181S 609E 80
0618011618 181S 609E 80
0618011618 181S 609E 80
0618011700 181S 606E 75
0618011700 181S 606E 75
0618011700 181S 606E 75
0618011706 182S 602E 70
0618011706 182S 602E 70
0618011706 182S 602E 70
0618011712 185S 599E 65
0618011712 185S 599E 65
0618011712 185S 599E 65
0618011718 190S 594E 65
0618011718 190S 594E 65
0618011800 197S 585E 65
0618011800 197S 585E 65
0618011800 197S 585E 65
0618011806 207S 576E 65
0618011806 207S 576E 65
0618011806 207S 576E 65
0618011812 215S 566E 65
0618011812 215S 566E 65
0618011812 215S 566E 65
0618011818 221S 550E 60
0618011818 221S 550E 60
0618011900 228S 542E 55
0618011900 228S 542E 55
0618011906 238S 534E 55
0618011906 238S 534E 55
0618011912 249S 525E 50
0618011912 249S 525E 50
0618011918 266S 512E 50
0618011918 266S 512E 50

2018-01-19 20:46

WTXS31 PGTW 192100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 26.6S 51.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.6S 51.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 29.3S 50.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 31.7S 50.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

2018-01-19 20:46

WTXS31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 26.6S 51.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.6S 51.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 29.3S 50.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 31.7S 50.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 33.2S 51.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
305 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
225 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 34.0S 53.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
245 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 27.3S 50.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 21
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH CONVECTION WHICH IS STARTING
TO BECOME LESS INTENSE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 191810Z
AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING WEAK CONVECTION WHICH IS STILL
WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
(CI) ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND T3.0 (45 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FAVORABLE, NEAR 26 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 06S
IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 06S WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 AND THEN TRACK
SOUTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR. AFTER
TAU 12 TC 06S WILL ENCOUNTER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 26
DEGREES CELSIUS WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH
TAU 48. TC 06S WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 36
AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.//

2018-01-19 19:01

WTIO31 FMEE 191823

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 28/3/20172018
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 3 (BERGUITTA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 19/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 26.6 S / 51.5 E
(VINGT SIX DEGRES SIX SUD ET CINQUANTE UN DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 17 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 982 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 410 SE: 740 SO: 590 NO: 370
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 520 SO: 440 NO: 170



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 20/01/2018 06 UTC: 29.8 S / 50.4 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 20/01/2018 18 UTC: 32.1 S / 50.1 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 21/01/2018 06 UTC: 33.1 S / 51.0 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 21/01/2018 18 UTC: 33.7 S / 53.8 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 22/01/2018 06 UTC: 34.8 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 22/01/2018 18 UTC: 36.0 S / 58.5 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 23/01/2018 18 UTC: 37.6 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 24/01/2018 18 UTC: 38.8 S / 59.8 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=3.0 CI=3.5-

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE
BERGUITTA N'A PAS CHANGE. DES POUSSEES DE CONVECTION CONTINUENT DE SE
PRODUIRE PRES DU CENTRE DU SYSTEME, MAINTENANT UN CDO MAL DEFINI. LES
IMAGES MICRO-ONDES RECENTES (SSMIS 1519Z ET WINDSAT DE 1457Z)
MONTRENT QUE LA CIRCULATION INTERNE N'ARRIVE PAS A SE RECONSTRUIRE
NOTAMMENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD. LE SYSTEME EST EN EFFET TOUJOURS
SOUMIS AUX EFFETS DE LA CONTRAINTE DE SECTEUR NORD-EST MALGRE SA
VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT ET LA TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE.


LE SYSTEME A COMMENCE A ORIENTER SA TRAJECTOIRE RAPIDE VERS LE SUD
SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE DE MOYENNE ALTITUDE PRESENTE A L'EST.
A PARTIR DE SAMEDI SOIR, LE SYSTEME EST PREVU RALENTIR BLOQUA PAR
UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE QUI SE GLISSE AU SUD DU SYSTEME. POUR LA SUITE,
BERGUITTA DEVRAIT QUITTER LES LATITUDES TROPICALES EN SE DEPLACANT
VERS LE SUD-EST, ATTIREE PAR LE PASSAGE D'UN THALWEG AU SUD-EST. EN
FIN D'ECHEANCE, AVEC L'ARRIVEE D'UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE AU SUD-OUEST,
LE SYSTEME POURRAIT A NOUVEAU RALENTIR.


A PARTIR DE DEMAIN, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES VONT CONTINUER
DE SE DEGRADER. LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG
D'ALTITUDE VA S'ORIENTER AU NORD-OUEST ET VA DEVENIR PROGRESSIVEMENT
FORT SUR LA CIRCULATION. LE SYSTEME EST PREVU CONSERVER UN CA UR
CHAUD PEU PROFOND MALGRE SON INTERACTION AVEC LA ZONE BAROCLINE ET LE
THALWEG D'ALTITUDE. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, EN L'ABSENCE DE FORCAGE
BAROCLINE, LA FUTURE DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE POURRAIT SE COMBLER.=

2018-01-19 19:01

WTIO30 FMEE 191823

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 28/3/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/19 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.6 S / 51.5 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL
FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 17 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 410 SE: 740 SW: 590 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 520 SW: 440 NW: 170



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/20 06 UTC: 29.8 S / 50.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/01/20 18 UTC: 32.1 S / 50.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/01/21 06 UTC: 33.1 S / 51.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/01/21 18 UTC: 33.7 S / 53.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/01/22 06 UTC: 34.8 S / 56.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/01/22 18 UTC: 36.0 S / 58.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/23 18 UTC: 37.6 S / 59.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/01/24 18 UTC: 38.8 S / 59.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, FILLING UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 CI=3.5-

OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, BERGUITTA CLOUD PATTERN DID NOT EVOLVED A
LOT. CONVECTIVE BURSTS KEEP ON OCCURING NEAR THE CENTER, SUSTAINING
AN ILL-DEFINED CDO. RECENT MICROWAVE DATA (SSMIS 1519Z AND WINDSAT
1457Z) SHOW THAT THE INNER CORE IS HARDLY REBUILDING IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. THE SYSTEM IS STILL UNDERGOING THE EFFECTS OF THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN SPITE OF THE FAST MOVEMENT AND THE VERY GOOD
UPPER DIVERGENCE.


BERGUITTA STARTED TO BEND PROGRESSIVELY SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING
FLOW GENERATING BY THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
FROM SATURDAY EVENING, BERGUITTA IS FORECASTED TO SLOW DOWN STOPPED
BY A LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVING SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. NEXT, BERGUITTA
IS EXPECTED TO LEAVE TROPICAL LATITUDES, SOUTH-EASTWARDS, DRIVEN BY
THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH AT SOUTH-EAST. AT LONG RANGE, THE ARRIVAL OF
A NEW RIDGE AT SOUTH-WEST MAY SLOW DOWN AGAIN THE LOW.

FROM TOMORROW, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO KEEP
DETERIORATING WITH A INCREASING NORTHWESTWARD VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
AHEAD AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. DESPITE ITS INTERACTION WITH A
BAROCLINIC AREA AND THE UPPER TROUGH, BERGUITTA SHOULD KEEP A SHALLOW
WARM CORE. NEXT WEEK, WITH THE DECAY OF THE BAROCLINIC FORCING, THE
FUTURE POST TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FILL UP.=

2018-01-19 18:16

WTIO22 FMEE 191809
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/01/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 028/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 19/01/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA) 982 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.6 S / 51.5 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 17 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
300 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 280 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 200
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 220 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 320 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/20 AT 06 UTC:
29.8 S / 50.4 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/20 AT 18 UTC:
32.1 S / 50.1 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-01-19 14:31

WTXS51 PGTW 191500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 180119132249
2018011912 06S BERGUITTA 028 01 210 14 SATL 030
T000 250S 0527E 050 R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
105 NE QD 230 SE QD 205 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 277S 0512E 050 R050 050 NE QD 095 SE QD 065 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
175 NE QD 285 SE QD 245 SW QD 105 NW QD
T024 304S 0507E 045 R034 190 NE QD 265 SE QD 220 SW QD 115 NW QD
T036 322S 0513E 045 R034 215 NE QD 265 SE QD 215 SW QD 145 NW QD
T048 330S 0527E 040 R034 190 NE QD 275 SE QD 220 SW QD 170 NW QD
T072 347S 0573E 040 R034 185 NE QD 275 SE QD 295 SW QD 245 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 028
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 25.0S 52.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-01-19 14:31

WTXS51 PGTW 191500
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 180119132249
2018011912 06S BERGUITTA 028 01 210 14 SATL 030
T000 250S 0527E 050 R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 230 SE QD 205 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 277S 0512E 050 R050 050 NE QD 095 SE QD 065 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 285 SE QD 245 SW QD 105 NW QD
T024 304S 0507E 045 R034 190 NE QD 265 SE QD 220 SW QD 115 NW QD
T036 322S 0513E 045 R034 215 NE QD 265 SE QD 215 SW QD 145 NW QD
T048 330S 0527E 040 R034 190 NE QD 275 SE QD 220 SW QD 170 NW QD
T072 347S 0573E 040 R034 185 NE QD 275 SE QD 295 SW QD 245 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 028
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 25.0S 52.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0S 52.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 27.7S 51.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 30.4S 50.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 32.2S 51.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 33.0S 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 34.7S 57.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
245 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 25.7S 52.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 306 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.
//
0618011100 130S 679E 15
0618011106 131S 683E 20
0618011112 137S 687E 30
0618011118 146S 690E 30
0618011200 153S 690E 30
0618011206 162S 685E 30
0618011212 168S 676E 30
0618011218 170S 669E 35
0618011300 174S 658E 35
0618011306 176S 651E 40
0618011312 181S 644E 40
0618011318 182S 638E 40
0618011400 182S 634E 50
0618011400 182S 634E 50
0618011406 182S 632E 55
0618011406 182S 632E 55
0618011412 181S 631E 55
0618011412 181S 631E 55
0618011418 180S 631E 55
0618011418 180S 631E 55
0618011500 178S 632E 65
0618011500 178S 632E 65
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011512 180S 630E 90
0618011512 180S 630E 90
0618011512 180S 630E 90
0618011518 180S 626E 100
0618011518 180S 626E 100
0618011518 180S 626E 100
0618011600 180S 621E 100
0618011600 180S 621E 100
0618011600 180S 621E 100
0618011606 180S 616E 95
0618011606 180S 616E 95
0618011606 180S 616E 95
0618011612 181S 612E 85
0618011612 181S 612E 85
0618011612 181S 612E 85
0618011618 181S 609E 80
0618011618 181S 609E 80
0618011618 181S 609E 80
0618011700 181S 606E 75
0618011700 181S 606E 75
0618011700 181S 606E 75
0618011706 182S 602E 70
0618011706 182S 602E 70
0618011706 182S 602E 70
0618011712 185S 599E 65
0618011712 185S 599E 65
0618011712 185S 599E 65
0618011718 190S 594E 65
0618011718 190S 594E 65
0618011800 197S 585E 65
0618011800 197S 585E 65
0618011800 197S 585E 65
0618011806 207S 576E 65
0618011806 207S 576E 65
0618011806 207S 576E 65
0618011812 215S 566E 65
0618011812 215S 566E 65
0618011812 215S 566E 65
0618011818 221S 550E 60
0618011818 221S 550E 60
0618011900 228S 542E 55
0618011900 228S 542E 55
0618011906 238S 534E 55
0618011906 238S 534E 55
0618011912 250S 527E 50
0618011912 250S 527E 50

2018-01-19 14:31

WTXS31 PGTW 191500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 25.0S 52.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0S 52.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 27.7S 51.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-01-19 14:31

WTXS31 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 25.0S 52.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0S 52.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 27.7S 51.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 30.4S 50.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 32.2S 51.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 33.0S 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 34.7S 57.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
245 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 25.7S 52.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 306 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CENTRALLY LOCATED
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE PGTW SATELLITE
IMAGERY FIX AND IS SUPPORTED BY A 191157Z 89GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 TO T3.5 (45-55 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW AND KNES RESPECTIVELY. THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS DUE TO INCREASED NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC
06S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-15
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HAS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, AND IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM
(26-27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH TAU 24 AT WHICH
POINT 06S WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND RECURVE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AROUND TAU 12, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR COMBINED WITH COOLER
(<26 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. TC BERGUITTA IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24 AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72. THE SYSTEM
WILL MAINTAIN AN EXPANSIVE GALE FORCE WIND FIELD IN THE EXTENDED
RANGE DUE TO FAVORABLE INTERACTION WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
THROUGHOUT ETT. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.
//

2018-01-19 13:01

WTIO31 FMEE 191214

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 27/3/20172018
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 3 (BERGUITTA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 19/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 25.0 S / 52.2 E
(VINGT CINQ DEGRES ZERO SUD ET CINQUANTE DEUX DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 983 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :NEANT

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 870 SO: 700 NO: 410
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 560 SO: 440 NO: 130



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 20/01/2018 00 UTC: 27.5 S / 50.4 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 20/01/2018 12 UTC: 30.7 S / 49.5 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 21/01/2018 00 UTC: 32.8 S / 50.0 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 21/01/2018 12 UTC: 33.4 S / 52.0 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 22/01/2018 00 UTC: 33.6 S / 54.4 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 22/01/2018 12 UTC: 35.2 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 23/01/2018 12 UTC: 37.0 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
120H: 24/01/2018 12 UTC: 39.0 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=3.0 CI=3.5-

BERGUITTA POURSUIT SON LENT AFFAIBLISSEMENT MAIS LUTTE. FAVORISE PAR
UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE CA TE POLAIRE ET RA SISTANT AU
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE NORD-EST GRA CE A SON DA PLACEMENT VERS LE
SUD-OUEST, UN CDO SE MAINTIENT AU DESSUS DU CENTRE.

LE SYSTEME EST PREVU ORIENTER PROGRESSIVEMENT SA TRAJECTOIRE RAPIDE
VERS LE SUD SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE DE MOYENNE ALTITUDE
PRESENTE A L'EST ET AU SUD-EST. DIMANCHE, LE SYSTEME EST PREVU
RALENTIR ET INFLECHIR SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-EST BLOQUA E PAR UNE
NOUVELLE DORSALE QUI SE GLISSE AU SUD DU SYSTEME.

A PARTIR DE DEMAIN, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES VONT FRANCHEMENT
SE DEGRADER. LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG
D'ALTITUDE VA S'ORIENTER AU NORD-OUEST ET VA DEVENIR PROGRESSIVEMENT
FORT SUR LA CIRCULATION. LE SYSTEME EST PREVU CONSERVER UN CA UR
CHAUD PEU PROFOND DE TYPE SECLUSION CHAUDE ALORS QU'IL S'ENFONCERA
LENTEMENT VERS LES LATITUDES AUSTRALES. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, LE SYSTA
ME EST PRA VU INTERAGIR AVEC LA ZONE BAROCLINE ET OPA RER SA
TRANSITION EXTRATROPICALE. LES VENTS ASSOCIES A LA CIRCULATION
CYCLONIQUE SONT PREVUS CONSERVER DES VALEURS PROCHE DE 45KT.=

2018-01-19 13:01

WTIO30 FMEE 191214

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/3/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/19 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.0 S / 52.2 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL
TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 870 SW: 700 NW: 410
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 560 SW: 440 NW: 130



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/20 00 UTC: 27.5 S / 50.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/01/20 12 UTC: 30.7 S / 49.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/01/21 00 UTC: 32.8 S / 50.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/01/21 12 UTC: 33.4 S / 52.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/01/22 00 UTC: 33.6 S / 54.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/01/22 12 UTC: 35.2 S / 56.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/23 12 UTC: 37.0 S / 58.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/01/24 12 UTC: 39.0 S / 56.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 CI=3.5-

BERGUITTA HAS CONTINUED ITS SLOWLY WEAKENING BUT BERGUITTA STRUGGLES.
FAVOURED BY A GOOD POLERWARD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND RESISTING TO
THE MODERATE NORTHEASTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR THANKS TO ITS
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, A CDO HAS MAINTAINED.

BERGUITTA IS FORECASTED TO BEND PROGRESSIVELY SOUTHWARD UNDER THE
STEERING FLOW GENERATING BY THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. SUNDAY, BERGUITTA IS FORECASTED TO SLOW DOWN
AND BEND SOUTHEASTWARD BLOCKED BY A LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.

FROM TOMORROW, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE
WITH AN INCREASING NORTHWESTWARD VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AHEAD AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT IT IS FORECASTED TO BECOME VERY STRONG. SO, AS IT
SHOULD MOVE NEAR 30S, BERGUITTA SHOULD EVOLVE LIKE A POST-TROPICAL
SYSTEM BUT IT SHOULD KEEP A SHALLOW WARM CORE. FROM MONDAY, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD INTERACT WITH THE BAROLINIC ZONE AND OPERATE ITS
EXTRATROPICALISATION PHASE. MAXIMUM WINDS ASSOCIATED TO THE CLOCKWISE
CIRCULATION SHOULD REMAIN ABOUT 45 KT.=

2018-01-19 12:16

WTIO22 FMEE 191201
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/01/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 027/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 19/01/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA) 983 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.0 S / 52.2 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 140 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
300 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 300 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 180
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 220 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 380 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 470 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.


FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/20 AT 00 UTC:
27.5 S / 50.4 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/20 AT 12 UTC:
30.7 S / 49.5 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-01-19 09:01

WTXS51 PGTW 190900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 180119075313
2018011906 06S BERGUITTA 027 01 215 12 SATL 030
T000 238S 0534E 055 R050 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 045 NW QD R034
120 NE QD 255 SE QD 240 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 259S 0517E 055 R050 050 NE QD 095 SE QD 065 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
175 NE QD 285 SE QD 245 SW QD 105 NW QD
T024 287S 0506E 050 R050 065 NE QD 090 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
190 NE QD 265 SE QD 220 SW QD 115 NW QD
T036 309S 0509E 050 R050 055 NE QD 075 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034
215 NE QD 265 SE QD 215 SW QD 145 NW QD
T048 320S 0517E 045 R034 190 NE QD 275 SE QD 220 SW QD 170 NW QD
T072 338S 0560E 040 R034 185 NE QD 275 SE QD 295 SW QD 245 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 027
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 23.8S 53.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

2018-01-19 09:01

WTXS51 PGTW 190900
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 180119075313
2018011906 06S BERGUITTA 027 01 215 12 SATL 030
T000 238S 0534E 055 R050 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 255 SE QD 240 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 259S 0517E 055 R050 050 NE QD 095 SE QD 065 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 285 SE QD 245 SW QD 105 NW QD
T024 287S 0506E 050 R050 065 NE QD 090 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 265 SE QD 220 SW QD 115 NW QD
T036 309S 0509E 050 R050 055 NE QD 075 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 215 NE QD 265 SE QD 215 SW QD 145 NW QD
T048 320S 0517E 045 R034 190 NE QD 275 SE QD 220 SW QD 170 NW QD
T072 338S 0560E 040 R034 185 NE QD 275 SE QD 295 SW QD 245 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 027
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 23.8S 53.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8S 53.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 25.9S 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 28.7S 50.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 30.9S 50.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 32.0S 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 33.8S 56.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
245 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 24.3S 53.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 224 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 192100Z AND 200900Z.
//
0618011100 130S 679E 15
0618011106 131S 683E 20
0618011112 137S 687E 30
0618011118 146S 690E 30
0618011200 153S 690E 30
0618011206 162S 685E 30
0618011212 168S 676E 30
0618011218 170S 669E 35
0618011300 174S 658E 35
0618011306 176S 651E 40
0618011312 181S 644E 40
0618011318 182S 638E 40
0618011400 182S 634E 50
0618011400 182S 634E 50
0618011406 182S 632E 55
0618011406 182S 632E 55
0618011412 181S 631E 55
0618011412 181S 631E 55
0618011418 180S 631E 55
0618011418 180S 631E 55
0618011500 178S 632E 65
0618011500 178S 632E 65
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011512 180S 630E 90
0618011512 180S 630E 90
0618011512 180S 630E 90
0618011518 180S 626E 100
0618011518 180S 626E 100
0618011518 180S 626E 100
0618011600 180S 621E 100
0618011600 180S 621E 100
0618011600 180S 621E 100
0618011606 180S 616E 95
0618011606 180S 616E 95
0618011606 180S 616E 95
0618011612 181S 612E 85
0618011612 181S 612E 85
0618011612 181S 612E 85
0618011618 181S 609E 80
0618011618 181S 609E 80
0618011618 181S 609E 80
0618011700 181S 606E 75
0618011700 181S 606E 75
0618011700 181S 606E 75
0618011706 182S 602E 70
0618011706 182S 602E 70
0618011706 182S 602E 70
0618011712 185S 599E 65
0618011712 185S 599E 65
0618011712 185S 599E 65
0618011718 190S 594E 65
0618011718 190S 594E 65
0618011800 197S 585E 65
0618011800 197S 585E 65
0618011800 197S 585E 65
0618011806 207S 576E 65
0618011806 207S 576E 65
0618011806 207S 576E 65
0618011812 215S 566E 65
0618011812 215S 566E 65
0618011812 215S 566E 65
0618011818 221S 550E 60
0618011818 221S 550E 60
0618011900 228S 542E 55
0618011900 228S 542E 55
0618011906 238S 534E 55
0618011906 238S 534E 55

2018-01-19 09:01

WTXS31 PGTW 190900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 23.8S 53.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8S 53.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 25.9S 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-01-19 09:01

WTXS31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 23.8S 53.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8S 53.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 25.9S 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 28.7S 50.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 30.9S 50.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 32.0S 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 33.8S 56.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
245 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 24.3S 53.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 224 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST LAYER OCCLUDING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY FIXES, AND SUPPORTED BY A 190228Z WSAT 37GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE RIDGE AXIS AROUND TAU 24 AND RECURVE
TO THE SOUTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
AREA OF LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HAS GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, AND IS TRACKING
THROUGH (26-27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AFTER TAU 12,
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND AROUND TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK INTO COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN. TC BERGUITTA WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) BY TAU 36 AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96. FAVORABLE INTERACTION
WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGHOUT ETT WILL ENABLE THE SYSTEM
TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OF AROUND 40 KNOTS BY THE COMPLETION OF ETT.
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z AND 200900Z.
//

2018-01-19 06:46

WTIO31 FMEE 190622

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 26/3/20172018
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 3 (BERGUITTA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 19/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.2 S / 53.3 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE TROIS DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 14 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 982 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :NEANT

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 870 SO: 700 NO: 410
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 480 SO: 440 NO: 130



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 19/01/2018 18 UTC: 26.4 S / 51.1 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 20/01/2018 06 UTC: 29.2 S / 49.8 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 20/01/2018 18 UTC: 32.1 S / 49.5 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 21/01/2018 06 UTC: 33.2 S / 50.3 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 21/01/2018 18 UTC: 33.3 S / 52.4 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 22/01/2018 06 UTC: 33.8 S / 54.8 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 23/01/2018 06 UTC: 36.8 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 24/01/2018 06 UTC: 37.7 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=3.5- CI=3.5-

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION A CENTRE NOYE SOUS
LA MASSE DE BERGUITTA S'EST LEGEREMENT DEGRADEE. L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE
WINDSAT 37 GHZ DE 0228Z MONTRE UNE CONVECTION PROFONDE
ESSENTIELLEMENT PRESENTE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD.

BERGUITTA POURSUIT SA TRAJECTOIRE RAPIDE VERS LE SUD-OUEST SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE PRESENTE A L'EST ET
AU SUD-EST. DIMANCHE, LE SYSTEME EST PREVU RALENTIR ET INFLECHIR SA
TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'EST PUIS LE SUD BLOQUA E PAR UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE
QUI SE GLISSE AU SUD DU SYSTEME.

AUJOURD'HUI, LE SYSTEME BENEFICIE DE CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES
ATMOSPHERIQUES FAVORABLES POUR CONSERVER SON INTENSITE MAIS AVEC UN
CONTENU ENERGETIQUE OCEANIQUE QUI FAIBLIT. LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL
DE NORD-EST RESTE MODERE AVEC AVEC DES EFFETS LIMITES PAR LE
DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME DANS LA MEME DIRECTION. LA DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE RESTE BONNE A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG DE HAUTE TROPOSPHERE ET
AVEC UN CANAL D'EVACUATION EFFCACE AU SUD DU SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE
DEMAIN, L'INFLUENCE DU TALWEG DE HAUTE TROPOSPHERE VA DEVENIR
PREPONDERANTE AVEC UNE HAUSSE GRADUELLE DU CISAILLEMENT DE VENT DE
NORD-OUEST QUI VA DEVENIR FORT. LES CARACTERISTIQUES DU SYSTEME VONT
ALORS EVOLUER VERS UNE STRUCTURE POST-TROPICALE. MAIS LE SYSTEME EST
PREVU CONSERVER UN COEUR CHAUD PEU PROFOND DE TYPE SECLUSION CHAUDE
ALORS QU'IL S'ENFONCERA LENTEMENT VERS LES LATITUDES AUSTRALES. LES
VENTS ASSOCIES A LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE SONT PREVUS CONSERVER DES
VALEURS PROCHE DE 45KT.=

2018-01-19 06:46

WTIO30 FMEE 190622

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 26/3/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/19 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.2 S / 53.3 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE
DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 870 SW: 700 NW: 410
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 480 SW: 440 NW: 130



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/19 18 UTC: 26.4 S / 51.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/01/20 06 UTC: 29.2 S / 49.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/01/20 18 UTC: 32.1 S / 49.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/01/21 06 UTC: 33.2 S / 50.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/01/21 18 UTC: 33.3 S / 52.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/01/22 06 UTC: 33.8 S / 54.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/23 06 UTC: 36.8 S / 56.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/01/24 06 UTC: 37.7 S / 55.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5- CI=3.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN OF BERGUITTA HAS
SLIGHTLY DETERIORATED. 0228Z 37 GHZ WINDSAT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED MAINLY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

BERGUITTA CONTINUES TO TRACK QUICKLY SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
FLOW GENERATING BY THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE SYSTEM. SUNDAY, BERGUITTA IS FORECASTED TO SLOW DOWN AND BEND
EASTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWARD BLOCKED BY A LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.

TODAY, ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVOURABLE BUT THE
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT BEGINS TO BECOME INSUFFICIENT. THE NORTHEASTERN
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS MODERATE BUT THIS EFFECT SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE
TO BERGUITTA'S MOVING TOWARD THE SAME DIRECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS GOOD AHEAD AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN EFFICIENT
POLERWARD CHANNEL. SO, BERGUITTA IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON ITS
INTENSITY.
FROM TOMORROW, THE NORTHWESTWARD VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AHEAD THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BECOME GRADUALLY STRONG. SO BERGUITTA SHOULD
EVOLVE LIKE A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM BUT IT SHOULD KEEP A SHALLOW WARM
CORE MOVING TOWARD THE MID-LATITUDES. MAXIMUM WINDS ASSOCIATED TO THE
CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION SHOULD REMAIN ABOUT 45 KT.=

2018-01-19 06:31

WTIO22 FMEE 190616
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/01/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 026/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 19/01/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA) 982 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.2 S / 53.3 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
300 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 260 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 180
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 220 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 380 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 470 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/19 AT 18 UTC:
26.4 S / 51.1 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/20 AT 06 UTC:
29.2 S / 49.8 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-01-19 03:16

WTXS51 PGTW 190300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 180119013502
2018011900 06S BERGUITTA 026 01 225 10 SATL 040
T000 228S 0542E 055 R050 055 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
130 NE QD 250 SE QD 235 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 247S 0523E 055 R050 050 NE QD 095 SE QD 065 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
175 NE QD 285 SE QD 245 SW QD 105 NW QD
T024 272S 0508E 050 R050 065 NE QD 090 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
190 NE QD 265 SE QD 220 SW QD 115 NW QD
T036 301S 0501E 050 R050 055 NE QD 075 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034
215 NE QD 265 SE QD 215 SW QD 145 NW QD
T048 316S 0505E 045 R034 190 NE QD 275 SE QD 220 SW QD 170 NW QD
T072 334S 0542E 045 R034 185 NE QD 275 SE QD 295 SW QD 245 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 026
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 22.8S 54.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

2018-01-19 03:16

WTXS31 PGTW 190300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 22.8S 54.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S 54.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 24.7S 52.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-01-19 03:01

WTXS51 PGTW 190300
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 180119013502
2018011900 06S BERGUITTA 026 01 225 10 SATL 040
T000 228S 0542E 055 R050 055 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 250 SE QD 235 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 247S 0523E 055 R050 050 NE QD 095 SE QD 065 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 285 SE QD 245 SW QD 105 NW QD
T024 272S 0508E 050 R050 065 NE QD 090 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 265 SE QD 220 SW QD 115 NW QD
T036 301S 0501E 050 R050 055 NE QD 075 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 215 NE QD 265 SE QD 215 SW QD 145 NW QD
T048 316S 0505E 045 R034 190 NE QD 275 SE QD 220 SW QD 170 NW QD
T072 334S 0542E 045 R034 185 NE QD 275 SE QD 295 SW QD 245 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 026
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 22.8S 54.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S 54.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 24.7S 52.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 27.2S 50.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 30.1S 50.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 31.6S 50.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 33.4S 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
245 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 23.3S 53.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 151 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z.
//
0618011100 130S 679E 15
0618011106 131S 683E 20
0618011112 137S 687E 30
0618011118 146S 690E 30
0618011200 153S 690E 30
0618011206 162S 685E 30
0618011212 168S 676E 30
0618011218 170S 669E 35
0618011300 174S 658E 35
0618011306 176S 651E 40
0618011312 181S 644E 40
0618011318 182S 638E 40
0618011400 182S 634E 50
0618011400 182S 634E 50
0618011406 182S 632E 55
0618011406 182S 632E 55
0618011412 181S 631E 55
0618011412 181S 631E 55
0618011418 180S 631E 55
0618011418 180S 631E 55
0618011500 178S 632E 65
0618011500 178S 632E 65
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011512 180S 630E 90
0618011512 180S 630E 90
0618011512 180S 630E 90
0618011518 180S 626E 100
0618011518 180S 626E 100
0618011518 180S 626E 100
0618011600 180S 621E 100
0618011600 180S 621E 100
0618011600 180S 621E 100
0618011606 180S 616E 95
0618011606 180S 616E 95
0618011606 180S 616E 95
0618011612 181S 612E 85
0618011612 181S 612E 85
0618011612 181S 612E 85
0618011618 181S 609E 80
0618011618 181S 609E 80
0618011618 181S 609E 80
0618011700 181S 606E 75
0618011700 181S 606E 75
0618011700 181S 606E 75
0618011706 182S 602E 70
0618011706 182S 602E 70
0618011706 182S 602E 70
0618011712 185S 599E 65
0618011712 185S 599E 65
0618011712 185S 599E 65
0618011718 190S 594E 65
0618011718 190S 594E 65
0618011800 197S 585E 65
0618011800 197S 585E 65
0618011800 197S 585E 65
0618011806 207S 576E 65
0618011806 207S 576E 65
0618011806 207S 576E 65
0618011812 215S 566E 65
0618011812 215S 566E 65
0618011812 215S 566E 65
0618011818 221S 550E 60
0618011818 221S 550E 60
0618011900 228S 542E 55
0618011900 228S 542E 55

2018-01-19 03:01

WTXS31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 22.8S 54.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S 54.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 24.7S 52.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 27.2S 50.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 30.1S 50.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 31.6S 50.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 33.4S 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
245 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 23.3S 53.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 151 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
LAYER COVERING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES 190000Z INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY FIXES, AND SUPPORTED BY A 182108Z AMSR2 36GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH PGTW AND KNES
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5. THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED
SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH THE CENTRAL CONVECTIVE MASS
DECREASING IN DIAMETER. THE TRACK CONTINUES TO TURN POLEWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RECURVE AROUND THE RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE LLCC, EVIDENT
IN SATELLITE FEATURE TRACK WIND DATA, IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING A
FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS TC 06S TRACKS
POLEWARD. THIS INCREASING SHEAR AND DECREASING ALONG-TRACK SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO INDUCE A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND IN THE NEAR TO MEDIUM-TERM. BY TAU 48, TC 06S WILL BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, AND FAVORABLE INTERACTION WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ENABLE THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AROUND
45 KNOTS AS IT COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72.
NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
TO THE CURRENT TRACK FORECASTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
190000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND
200300Z.//

2018-01-19 01:31

WTIO31 FMEE 190100

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 25/3/20172018
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 3 (BERGUITTA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 19/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.2 S / 54.5 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE QUATRE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 982 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :NEANT

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 870 SO: 700 NO: 410
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 480 SO: 440 NO: 130



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 19/01/2018 12 UTC: 24.9 S / 52.2 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 20/01/2018 00 UTC: 27.2 S / 50.4 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 20/01/2018 12 UTC: 30.0 S / 49.9 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 21/01/2018 00 UTC: 32.3 S / 49.9 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 21/01/2018 12 UTC: 32.6 S / 51.5 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 22/01/2018 00 UTC: 33.0 S / 53.5 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 23/01/2018 00 UTC: 35.6 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 24/01/2018 00 UTC: 37.2 S / 55.8 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=3.5 CI=3.5+

LA CONFIGURATION A CENTRE NOYE SOUS LA MASSE DE BERGUITTA EST RESTEE
ASSEZ BIEN DEFINIE DURANT CETTE SECONDE PARTIE DE NUIT. LES PASS
ASCAT-A ET B DE LA SOIREE ONT ETE TRES UTILES POUR PRECISER LA FORCE
ET LA STRUCTURE DE LA CIRCULATION. LES VENTS MAX AFFICHES A 40-45 KT
ONT SERVI DE BASE POUR LA PRESENTE ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE. D'AUTRE
PART, CES ASCAT REVELENT QUE LA STUCTURE DU CHAMPS DE VENTS EST LARGE
ET TRES DISSYMETRIQUE. LE CENTRE APPARAIT ENCORE SUR LES DONNEES
RADARS DE LA REUNION MAIS ON NOTE GLOBALEMENT UNE BAISSE DE SA
DEFINITION.

PEU APRES 18 TU, BERGUITTA A DECROCHE DE SA TRAJECTOIRE PLEIN OUEST
POTENTIELLEMENT INFLUENCE PAR LE RELIEF DE LA REUNION. LE CAP DONNE
EST UNE MOYENNE SUR LES 3 DERNIERES HEURES. LES DERNIERS POINTAGES
RADARS INDIQUENT UNE ACCELERATION DU DEPLACEMENT AINSI QU'UN RETOUR
VERS UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS SUD-OUEST.CELUI-CI SE FAIT SOUS L'INFLUENCE
DE LA DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE PRESENTE A L'EST ET AU SUD-EST.
A PARTIR DU 20, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PLONGER VERS LES LATITUDES SUD EN
COMMENCANT SA TRANSITION EXTRATOPICALE (PHASE POST-TROPICALE). IL EST
POSSIBLE QUE BERGUITTA NE REUSSISSE PAS A S'EVACUER AVEC LE PREMIER
TALWEG. LE SYSTEME CONNAITRAIT ALORS UN DEPLACEMENT LENT ENTRE LE 22
ET LE 24 AUX ABORDS DE 35S. LES MODELES SUGGERENT POUR L'INSTANT QUE
DURANT TOUTE CETTE PERIODE LE SYSTEME GARDE ENCORE DES
CARACTERISTIQUES MIXTES SANS REELLEMENT REUSSIR A ACHEVER SA PHASE DE
TRANSITION EXTRATROPICALE.=

2018-01-19 01:31

WTIO30 FMEE 190100

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/3/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/19 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.2 S / 54.5 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR
DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 870 SW: 700 NW: 410
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 480 SW: 440 NW: 130



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/19 12 UTC: 24.9 S / 52.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/01/20 00 UTC: 27.2 S / 50.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/01/20 12 UTC: 30.0 S / 49.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/01/21 00 UTC: 32.3 S / 49.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/01/21 12 UTC: 32.6 S / 51.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/01/22 00 UTC: 33.0 S / 53.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/23 00 UTC: 35.6 S / 57.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/01/24 00 UTC: 37.2 S / 55.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5 CI=3.5+

THE EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN OF BERGUITTA HAS REMAINED QUITE
IMPRESSIVE OVERNIGHT. ASCAT-A AND B PASS EARLIER TONIGHT WERE HELPFUL
TO ASSESS BOTH INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF THE STORM. ASCAT MAX WINDS
OF 40-45 KT WERE USED FOR THE INTENSITY. ASCAT DATA REVEAL A BROAD
AND HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC WINDFIELD, NOT VERY COMMON OF CLASSICAL
TROPICAL SYSTEMS. THE CENTER STILL APPEAR ON RADAR DATA OF LA REUNION
ALTHOUGH A LOSS OF DEFINITION IS NOTED.

A LITTLE AFTER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, THE SYSTEM STOPPED ITS
WESTWARDS MOTION POTENTIALLY INFLUENCED BY REUNION ISLAND. THE GIVEN
BEARING IS A MEAN OVER THE LAST 3 HOURS. LATEST RADAR FIX SUGGEST A
SPEED UP OF THE FORWARD MOTION WITH A TRACK THAT IS GRADUALLY BACK ON
A SOUTH-WESTWARDS BEARING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL
HIGHS. FROM SATURDAY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE POLEWARDS
AND BEGIN ITS EXTRATROP TRANSITION (POST-TROP PHASIS). IT APPEARS
LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM MAY MISS THE FIRST MID-LAT TROUGH TO MERGE
WITHIN THE WESTERLIES. IF IT COMES TRUE, THE SYSTEM MAY MEANDERING
AROUND 35S BETWEEN EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS SUGGEST NOW THAT THE FULL
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION MAY NOT BE COMPLETED BY THAT TIME.=

2018-01-19 00:31

WTIO22 FMEE 190018
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/01/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 025/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 19/01/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA) 982 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.2 S / 54.5 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
300 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 260 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 180
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 220 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 380 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 470 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/19 AT 12 UTC:
24.9 S / 52.2 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/20 AT 00 UTC:
27.2 S / 50.4 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-01-18 21:16

WTXS51 PGTW 182100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 180118194712
2018011818 06S BERGUITTA 025 01 240 19 SATL RADR 040
T000 224S 0548E 060 R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034
155 NE QD 235 SE QD 200 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 239S 0528E 055 R050 055 NE QD 105 SE QD 075 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
170 NE QD 280 SE QD 255 SW QD 115 NW QD
T024 258S 0513E 055 R050 065 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
190 NE QD 265 SE QD 230 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 283S 0504E 050 R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R034
205 NE QD 255 SE QD 215 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 308S 0507E 050 R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
205 NE QD 240 SE QD 210 SW QD 145 NW QD
T072 331S 0529E 045 R034 170 NE QD 250 SE QD 240 SW QD 185 NW QD
T096 355S 0578E 045 R034 190 NE QD 280 SE QD 270 SW QD 215 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 025
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 22.4S 54.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-01-18 21:16

WTXS51 PGTW 182100
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 180118194712
2018011818 06S BERGUITTA 025 01 240 19 SATL RADR 040
T000 224S 0548E 060 R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 235 SE QD 200 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 239S 0528E 055 R050 055 NE QD 105 SE QD 075 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 280 SE QD 255 SW QD 115 NW QD
T024 258S 0513E 055 R050 065 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 265 SE QD 230 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 283S 0504E 050 R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 205 NE QD 255 SE QD 215 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 308S 0507E 050 R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 205 NE QD 240 SE QD 210 SW QD 145 NW QD
T072 331S 0529E 045 R034 170 NE QD 250 SE QD 240 SW QD 185 NW QD
T096 355S 0578E 045 R034 190 NE QD 280 SE QD 270 SW QD 215 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 025
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 22.4S 54.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.4S 54.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 23.9S 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 25.8S 51.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 28.3S 50.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 30.8S 50.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 33.1S 52.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 35.5S 57.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
215 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 22.8S 54.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 117 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 19
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.
//
0618011100 130S 679E 15
0618011106 131S 683E 20
0618011112 137S 687E 30
0618011118 146S 690E 30
0618011200 153S 690E 30
0618011206 162S 685E 30
0618011212 168S 676E 30
0618011218 170S 669E 35
0618011300 174S 658E 35
0618011306 176S 651E 40
0618011312 181S 644E 40
0618011318 182S 638E 40
0618011400 182S 634E 50
0618011400 182S 634E 50
0618011406 182S 632E 55
0618011406 182S 632E 55
0618011412 181S 631E 55
0618011412 181S 631E 55
0618011418 180S 631E 55
0618011418 180S 631E 55
0618011500 178S 632E 65
0618011500 178S 632E 65
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011512 180S 630E 90
0618011512 180S 630E 90
0618011512 180S 630E 90
0618011518 180S 626E 100
0618011518 180S 626E 100
0618011518 180S 626E 100
0618011600 180S 621E 100
0618011600 180S 621E 100
0618011600 180S 621E 100
0618011606 180S 616E 95
0618011606 180S 616E 95
0618011606 180S 616E 95
0618011612 181S 612E 85
0618011612 181S 612E 85
0618011612 181S 612E 85
0618011618 181S 609E 80
0618011618 181S 609E 80
0618011618 181S 609E 80
0618011700 181S 606E 75
0618011700 181S 606E 75
0618011700 181S 606E 75
0618011706 182S 602E 70
0618011706 182S 602E 70
0618011706 182S 602E 70
0618011712 185S 599E 65
0618011712 185S 599E 65
0618011712 185S 599E 65
0618011718 190S 594E 65
0618011718 190S 594E 65
0618011800 197S 585E 65
0618011800 197S 585E 65
0618011800 197S 585E 65
0618011806 207S 576E 65
0618011806 207S 576E 65
0618011806 207S 576E 65
0618011812 215S 566E 65
0618011812 215S 566E 65
0618011812 215S 566E 65
0618011818 224S 548E 60
0618011818 224S 548E 60

2018-01-18 21:16

WTXS31 PGTW 182100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 22.4S 54.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.4S 54.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 23.9S 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-01-18 21:16

WTXS31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 22.4S 54.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.4S 54.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 23.9S 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 25.8S 51.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 28.3S 50.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 30.8S 50.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 33.1S 52.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 35.5S 57.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
215 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 22.8S 54.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 117 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 19
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A CENTRAL CONVECTIVE MASS COVERING THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. RADAR IMAGERY FROM LA REUNION AND A 1533Z SSMIS
37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A WELL-DEFINED CENTER FEATURE, AND THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THESE SOURCES AS WELL AS A 1737Z ASCAT
PASS. THE INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 TO T3.5 (45-55 KNOTS)
FROM KNES AND PGTW, RESPECTIVELY, AND IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT
AUTOMATED SATELLITE INTENSITY CONSENSUS ESTIMATES. THE SYSTEM HAS
WEAKENED SLIGHLTY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH WARMING CONVECTIVE
TOPS EVIDENT IN INFRARED SATELLITE DATA CONFIRMING THE WEAKENING
TREND. TC 06S IS TURNING POLEWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A STEERING
RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING AROUND THE RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN UPPER-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER TC 06S HAS RESULTED IN DECREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY, AND ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE, INDUCING A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IN THE NEAR TO MEDIUM-
TERM. BY TAU 48, TC 06S WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, AND
FAVORABLE INTERACTION WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ENABLE THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AROUND 45 KNOTS AS IT COMPLETES
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 181800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z
AND 192100Z.//

2018-01-18 19:16

WTIO22 FMEE 181904
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/01/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 024/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 18/01/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.1 S / 55.0 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 280 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/19 AT 06 UTC:
23.4 S / 53.1 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/19 AT 18 UTC:
25.2 S / 51.3 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-01-18 19:01

WTIO31 FMEE 181851

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 24/3/20172018
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 3 (BERGUITTA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 18/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.1 S / 55.0 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES UN SUD ET CINQUANTE CINQ DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 980 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 560 SO: 520 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 19/01/2018 06 UTC: 23.4 S / 53.1 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 19/01/2018 18 UTC: 25.2 S / 51.3 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 20/01/2018 06 UTC: 27.8 S / 50.0 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 20/01/2018 18 UTC: 30.8 S / 50.0 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 21/01/2018 06 UTC: 32.1 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 21/01/2018 18 UTC: 32.4 S / 52.8 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 22/01/2018 18 UTC: 34.5 S / 57.1 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 23/01/2018 18 UTC: 37.0 S / 59.0 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=3.5+ CI=3.5+

BERGUITTA A TEMPORAIREMENT PRESENTE UNE BELLE SIGNATURE RADAR VERS
1435Z AVEC UN OEIL ASSEZ BIEN DEFINI. CETTE SIGNATURE S'EST DEPUIS
DEGRADEE. SUR L'IMAGERIE SATELLITAIRE, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EST
A CENTRE NOYE SOUS LA MASSE. L'INTENSITE EST BASEE SUR L'ESTIMATION
DVORAK, ELLE MEME, BASEE SUR LE MET.

LE SYSTEME A SENSIBLEMENT REDRESSE VERS L'OUEST AU COURS DES 6
DERNIERES HEURES EN RALENTISSANT ET LES RAISONS DE CE REDRESSEMENT NE
SONT PAS NETTES (POSSIBLEMENT L'INFLUENCE DE L'ILE DE LA REUNION).
BERGUITTA DEVRAIT NEANMOINS REPRENDRE UN DEPLACEMENT SUD-OUEST SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE A SON EST AU COURS
DES PROCHAINES HEURES. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, LA RECONSTRUCTION DES
HAUTES PRESSIONS PLUS AU SUD DEVRAIT RALENTIR SA PLONGEE, AVANT QUE
LE SYSTEME BERGUITTA NE SOIT REPRIS DANS LA CIRCULATION DES LATITUDES
PLUS SUD.

LE SYSTEME SUBIT UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE DE NORD-EST SUR LA FACE
NORD-EST DE LA DORSALE PRECEDEMMENT MENTIONNEE. LA PREVISION
PRIVILEGIE TOUJOURS UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT LENT AVEC UNE DIVERGENCE QUI
RESTE TRES BONNE ET UNE VITESSE SUFFISANTE. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, LE
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DE NORD-OUEST POURRAIT S'ACCROITRE A
L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG D'ALTITUDE. LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE SERA EGALEMENT
MARGINAL A CETTE ECHEANCE. BERGUITTA ENTAMERA ALORS SA PHASE
D'EXTROPICALISATION.=

2018-01-18 19:01

WTIO30 FMEE 181851

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/3/20172018
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/18 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.1 S / 55.0 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL
ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 560 SW: 520 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/19 06 UTC: 23.4 S / 53.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/01/19 18 UTC: 25.2 S / 51.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/01/20 06 UTC: 27.8 S / 50.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/01/20 18 UTC: 30.8 S / 50.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/01/21 06 UTC: 32.1 S / 50.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/01/21 18 UTC: 32.4 S / 52.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/22 18 UTC: 34.5 S / 57.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/01/23 18 UTC: 37.0 S / 59.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5+ CI=3.5+

BERGUITTA HAS TEMPORARILY SHOWN A SOMEWHAT WELL DEFINED EYE ON RADAR
IMAGERY AROUND 1435Z. THIS PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED SOMEWHAT SINCE
THAT TIME. ON SAT IMAGERY, THE CLOUD PATTERN IS AN EMBEDDED CENTER.
THE INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATE THAT IS BASED ON THE MET.

THE SYSTEM HAS BEND TOWARDS THE WEST OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS AND SLOW
DOWN SOMEWHAT ALSO. THE REASON OF THIS TREND ARE UNCLEAR BUT LAND
INFLUENCE OF LA REUNION MAY BE INVOLVED. HOWEVER A SOUTHWESTWARDS
MOTION SHOULD RESUME WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE
OF THE MID-LEVEL HIGHS. IT WILL THEN CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD
BEFORE TRACKING SOUTHWARDS. LATER, HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER SOUTH SHOULD
SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD MOTION BEFORE THE SYSTEM CURVED EASTWARDS
WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION.

THE SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING A MODERATE NORTHEASTERN VERICAL WINDSHEAR
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE. INTENSITY
FORECAST CONTINUE TO FAVOUR A SLOW WEAKENING AS THE MAIN SCENARIO.
, WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND ENOUGH FORWARD SPEED. FROM SATURDAY,
NORTHWESTWARD VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS FORECASTED TO INCREASE AHEAD AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. OCEANIC POTENTIAL WILL BECOME MARGINAL AT THIS
RANGE. BERGUITTA IS EXPECTED THEN TO START ITS EXTRATROPICALISATION
PHASE.=

2018-01-18 14:46

WTXS51 PGTW 181500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 180118132645
2018011812 06S BERGUITTA 024 01 230 12 SATL 030
T000 215S 0566E 065 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 170 SE QD
170 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 228S 0545E 065 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 100 SE QD 075 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 270 SE QD
255 SW QD 115 NW QD
T024 246S 0527E 060 R050 045 NE QD 090 SE QD 065 SW QD 035 NW QD R034
160 NE QD 265 SE QD 245 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 268S 0514E 060 R050 055 NE QD 085 SE QD 055 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
185 NE QD 250 SE QD 220 SW QD 115 NW QD
T048 293S 0509E 055 R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
205 NE QD 240 SE QD 210 SW QD 145 NW QD
T072 320S 0523E 050 R050 020 NE QD 060 SE QD 095 SW QD 060 NW QD R034
170 NE QD 250 SE QD 240 SW QD 185 NW QD
T096 341S 0564E 045 R034 200 NE QD 290 SE QD 280 SW QD 235 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 024
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 21.5S 56.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

2018-01-18 14:46

WTXS51 PGTW 181500
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 180118132645
2018011812 06S BERGUITTA 024 01 230 12 SATL 030
T000 215S 0566E 065 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 170 SE QD 170 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 228S 0545E 065 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 100 SE QD 075 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 270 SE QD 255 SW QD 115 NW QD
T024 246S 0527E 060 R050 045 NE QD 090 SE QD 065 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 265 SE QD 245 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 268S 0514E 060 R050 055 NE QD 085 SE QD 055 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 250 SE QD 220 SW QD 115 NW QD
T048 293S 0509E 055 R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 205 NE QD 240 SE QD 210 SW QD 145 NW QD
T072 320S 0523E 050 R050 020 NE QD 060 SE QD 095 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 250 SE QD 240 SW QD 185 NW QD
T096 341S 0564E 045 R034 200 NE QD 290 SE QD 280 SW QD 235 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 024
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 21.5S 56.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 56.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 22.8S 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 24.6S 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 26.8S 51.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 29.3S 50.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 32.0S 52.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 34.1S 56.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
235 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 21.8S 56.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 93 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.
//
0618011100 130S 679E 15
0618011106 131S 683E 20
0618011112 137S 687E 30
0618011118 146S 690E 30
0618011200 153S 690E 30
0618011206 162S 685E 30
0618011212 168S 676E 30
0618011218 170S 669E 35
0618011300 174S 658E 35
0618011306 176S 651E 40
0618011312 181S 644E 40
0618011318 182S 638E 40
0618011400 182S 634E 50
0618011400 182S 634E 50
0618011406 182S 632E 55
0618011406 182S 632E 55
0618011412 181S 631E 55
0618011412 181S 631E 55
0618011418 180S 631E 55
0618011418 180S 631E 55
0618011500 178S 632E 65
0618011500 178S 632E 65
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011512 180S 630E 90
0618011512 180S 630E 90
0618011512 180S 630E 90
0618011518 180S 626E 100
0618011518 180S 626E 100
0618011518 180S 626E 100
0618011600 180S 621E 100
0618011600 180S 621E 100
0618011600 180S 621E 100
0618011606 180S 616E 95
0618011606 180S 616E 95
0618011606 180S 616E 95
0618011612 181S 612E 85
0618011612 181S 612E 85
0618011612 181S 612E 85
0618011618 181S 609E 80
0618011618 181S 609E 80
0618011618 181S 609E 80
0618011700 181S 606E 75
0618011700 181S 606E 75
0618011700 181S 606E 75
0618011706 182S 602E 70
0618011706 182S 602E 70
0618011706 182S 602E 70
0618011712 185S 599E 65
0618011712 185S 599E 65
0618011712 185S 599E 65
0618011718 190S 594E 65
0618011718 190S 594E 65
0618011800 197S 585E 65
0618011800 197S 585E 65
0618011800 197S 585E 65
0618011806 207S 576E 65
0618011806 207S 576E 65
0618011806 207S 576E 65
0618011812 215S 566E 65
0618011812 215S 566E 65
0618011812 215S 566E 65

2018-01-18 14:46

WTXS31 PGTW 181500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 21.5S 56.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 56.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 22.8S 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-01-18 14:46

WTXS31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 21.5S 56.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 56.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 22.8S 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 24.6S 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 26.8S 51.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 29.3S 50.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 32.0S 52.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 34.1S 56.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
235 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 21.8S 56.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 93 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A CENTRALLY LOCATED CONVECTIVE MASS THAT IS OCCLUDING
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN 180907Z AMSR2 37GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING IS LOCATED IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND WRAPS INTO THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION
IS BASED ON THIS AMSR2 IMAGE AND THE PGTW POSITION FIX. THE
INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS ON THE UPPER END OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.5 TO T4.0 (55-65 KNOTS)
FROM KNES AND PGTW RESPECTIVELY. THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, EVEN IMPROVING IN CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE
SLIGHTLY AS 06S MOVES AWAY FROM MAURITIUS. TC BERGUITTA IS TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY RE-ORIENTING AND
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TAU 48.
AFTER TAU 48, TC 06S WILL CROSS THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN TO TRACK TO
THE SOUTHEAST. AROUND THE SAME TIME, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BETWEEN
TAU 72 AND TAU 96. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS OFFSET BY POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND AFTER TAU 12 AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES AND THE SYSTEM
TRACKS INTO AN AREA OF COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SYSTEM SPEED AROUND TAU 96. THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.//

2018-01-18 14:16

WTIO22 FMEE 181401 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/01/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 023/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 18/01/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA) 982 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.6 S / 56.3 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 280 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/19 AT 00 UTC:
22.6 S / 54.2 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/19 AT 12 UTC:
24.3 S / 52.2 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-01-18 13:31

WTIO31 FMEE 181319

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 23/3/20172018
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 3 (BERGUITTA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 18/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.6 S / 56.3 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES SIX SUD ET CINQUANTE SIX DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 982 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 560 SO: 520 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 90
48 KT NE: SE: 70 SO: 70 NO:


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 19/01/2018 00 UTC: 22.6 S / 54.2 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 19/01/2018 12 UTC: 24.3 S / 52.2 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 20/01/2018 00 UTC: 26.7 S / 51.0 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 20/01/2018 12 UTC: 29.7 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 21/01/2018 00 UTC: 32.2 S / 50.4 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 21/01/2018 12 UTC: 32.5 S / 51.3 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 22/01/2018 12 UTC: 34.2 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 23/01/2018 12 UTC: 36.3 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=3.0 CI=3.5

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION S'EST RENFORCEE
AUTOUR DU CENTRE AVEC DES SOMMETS PLUS FROIDS. LES DONNEES MICRO
ONDES (AMSR2 DE 1013Z) ET LES DONNEES RADAR DE LA REUNION, NE
MONTRENT CEPENDANT PAS DE RECONSTRUCTION DE LA CIRCULATION INTERNE.
LA POSITION EST RELATIVEMENT INCERTAINE DE CE FAIT. LE CISAILLEMENT
ANALYSE A 15KT PAR LE CIMSS, EST TOUJOURS PRESENT EMPECHANT UNE
REINTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME, MALGRE LA BONNE DIVERGENCE. LA PRESSION
CENTRALE A ETE ESTIMEE AVEC LES DONNEES D'UNE BOUEE.

LE SYSTEME SE DIRIGE MAINTENANT VERS LE SUD-OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE
LA DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE A SON EST. DANS LES PROCHAINES
HEURES,BERGUITTA CONTINUERA SA TRAJECTOIRE EN S'ELOIGNANT DE LA
REUNION APRES SON PASSAGE AU PLUS PRES ACTUELLEMENT. EN FIN
D'ECHEANCE, LA RECONSTRUCTION DES HAUTES PRESSIONS PLUS AU SUD
DEVRAIT RALENTIR SA PLONGEE, AVANT QUE LE SYSTEME BERGUITTA NE SOIT
REPRIS DANS LA CIRCULATION DES LATITUDES PLUS SUD.

LE SYSTEME SUBIT UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE DE NORD-EST SUR LA FACE
NORD-EST DE LA DORSALE PRECEDEMMENT MENTIONNEE. LA PREVISION
PRIVILEGIE TOUJOURS UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT LENT DANS LES PROCHAINES
HEURES AVEC UNE DIVERGENCE QUI RESTE TRES BONNE ET UNE VITESSE
SUFFISANTE. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DE
NORD-OUEST POURRAIT S'ACCROITRE A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG D'ALTITUDE. LE
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE SERA EGALEMENT MARGINAL A CETTE ECHEANCE.
BERGUITTA ENTAMERA ALORS SA PHASE D'EXTROPICALISATION.=

2018-01-18 13:31

WTIO30 FMEE 181319

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/3/20172018
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/18 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.6 S / 56.3 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL
THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 560 SW: 520 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 90
48 KT NE: SE: 70 SW: 70 NW:


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/19 00 UTC: 22.6 S / 54.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/01/19 12 UTC: 24.3 S / 52.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/01/20 00 UTC: 26.7 S / 51.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/01/20 12 UTC: 29.7 S / 50.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/01/21 00 UTC: 32.2 S / 50.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/01/21 12 UTC: 32.5 S / 51.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/22 12 UTC: 34.2 S / 56.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/01/23 12 UTC: 36.3 S / 58.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 CI=3.5

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INCREASED AROUND THE
CENTER WITH COLDER CLOUD TOPS. MICROWAVE DATA (1013Z AMSR2) AND LA
REUNION RADAR DATA DO NOT SHOW ANY SIGN OF THE REBUILDING OF THE
INNER CORE. EXACT POSITION IS THUS RATHER UNCLEAR. THE SHEAR STILL
ANALYSED AT 15KT BY CIMSS, IS STILL PREVENTING BERGUITTA FROM
DEEPENING DEPSITE THE GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. MSLP WAS ESTIMATED WITH
BUOY DATA.

THE SYSTEM IS NOW TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF
THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE LOCATED EAST. TODAY, BERGUITTA IS FORECAST
TO KEEP ON ITS MOVEMENT, MOVING AWAY FROM REUNION ISLAND AFTER ITS
THE CLOSEST PASSAGE. IT WILL THEN CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD
BEFORE TRACKING SOUTHWARDS. LATER, HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER SOUTH SHOULD
SLOW DOWN THE MOVING OF BERGUITTA, AND NEXT THE SYSTEM BERGUITTA
SHOULD FOLLOW THE MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION.

THE SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING A MODERATE NORTHEASTERN VERICAL WINDSHEAR
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE. INTENSITY
FORECAST CONTINUE TO FAVOUR A SLOW WEAKENING AS THE MAIN SCENARIO.
, WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND A RATHER FAST SPEED. FROM SATURDAY,
NORTHWESTWARD VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS FORECASTED TO INCREASE AHEAD AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. OCEANIC POTENTIAL WILL BECOME MARGINAL AT THIS
RANGE. BERGUITTA IS EXPECTED THEN TO START ITS EXTRATROPICALISATION
PHASE.=

2018-01-18 12:46

WTIO20 FMEE 181242 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/01/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 023/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 16/01/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BERGUITTA) 955 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1 S / 61.5 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 280 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/16 AT 18 UTC:
22.6 S / 54.2 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/17 AT 06 UTC:
24.3 S / 52.2 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-01-18 12:31

WTIO22 FMEE 181221 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/01/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 023/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 18/01/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA) 982 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.6 S / 56.3 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 280 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/19 AT 00 UTC:
22.6 S / 54.2 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/19 AT 12 UTC:
24.3 S / 52.2 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-01-18 12:16

WTIO22 FMEE 181211
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/01/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 18/01/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA) 982 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.6 S / 56.3 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 280 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 280 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/19 AT 00 UTC:
22.6 S / 54.2 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/19 AT 12 UTC:
24.3 S / 52.2 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-01-18 09:16

WTXS51 PGTW 180900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 180118081213
2018011806 06S BERGUITTA 023 01 220 13 SATL 035
T000 207S 0576E 065 R064 015 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 175 SE QD
160 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 221S 0555E 065 R064 015 NE QD 035 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 210 SE QD
195 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 236S 0536E 065 R064 015 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 075 SE QD 060 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 245 SE QD
220 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 255S 0520E 060 R050 050 NE QD 085 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
150 NE QD 255 SE QD 225 SW QD 105 NW QD
T048 281S 0510E 055 R050 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R034
175 NE QD 240 SE QD 200 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 315S 0517E 050 R050 045 NE QD 080 SE QD 095 SW QD 075 NW QD R034
200 NE QD 250 SE QD 195 SW QD 160 NW QD
T096 335S 0550E 040 R034 205 NE QD 295 SE QD 290 SW QD 240 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 023
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 20.7S 57.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

2018-01-18 09:16

WTXS51 PGTW 180900
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 180118081213
2018011806 06S BERGUITTA 023 01 220 13 SATL 035
T000 207S 0576E 065 R064 015 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 175 SE QD 160 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 221S 0555E 065 R064 015 NE QD 035 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 210 SE QD 195 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 236S 0536E 065 R064 015 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 075 SE QD 060 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 245 SE QD 220 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 255S 0520E 060 R050 050 NE QD 085 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 255 SE QD 225 SW QD 105 NW QD
T048 281S 0510E 055 R050 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 240 SE QD 200 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 315S 0517E 050 R050 045 NE QD 080 SE QD 095 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 250 SE QD 195 SW QD 160 NW QD
T096 335S 0550E 040 R034 205 NE QD 295 SE QD 290 SW QD 240 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 023
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 20.7S 57.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S 57.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 22.1S 55.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 23.6S 53.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 25.5S 52.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 28.1S 51.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 31.5S 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 33.5S 55.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 21.0S 57.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 40 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.
//
0618011100 130S 679E 15
0618011106 131S 683E 20
0618011112 137S 687E 30
0618011118 146S 690E 30
0618011200 153S 690E 30
0618011206 162S 685E 30
0618011212 168S 676E 30
0618011218 170S 669E 35
0618011300 174S 658E 35
0618011306 176S 651E 40
0618011312 181S 644E 40
0618011318 182S 638E 40
0618011400 182S 634E 50
0618011400 182S 634E 50
0618011406 182S 632E 55
0618011406 182S 632E 55
0618011412 181S 631E 55
0618011412 181S 631E 55
0618011418 180S 631E 55
0618011418 180S 631E 55
0618011500 178S 632E 65
0618011500 178S 632E 65
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011512 180S 630E 90
0618011512 180S 630E 90
0618011512 180S 630E 90
0618011518 180S 626E 100
0618011518 180S 626E 100
0618011518 180S 626E 100
0618011600 180S 621E 100
0618011600 180S 621E 100
0618011600 180S 621E 100
0618011606 180S 616E 95
0618011606 180S 616E 95
0618011606 180S 616E 95
0618011612 181S 612E 85
0618011612 181S 612E 85
0618011612 181S 612E 85
0618011618 181S 609E 80
0618011618 181S 609E 80
0618011618 181S 609E 80
0618011700 181S 606E 75
0618011700 181S 606E 75
0618011700 181S 606E 75
0618011706 182S 602E 70
0618011706 182S 602E 70
0618011706 182S 602E 70
0618011712 185S 599E 65
0618011712 185S 599E 65
0618011712 185S 599E 65
0618011718 190S 594E 65
0618011718 190S 594E 65
0618011800 197S 585E 65
0618011800 197S 585E 65
0618011800 197S 585E 65
0618011806 207S 576E 65
0618011806 207S 576E 65
0618011806 207S 576E 65

2018-01-18 09:16

WTXS31 PGTW 180900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 20.7S 57.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S 57.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 22.1S 55.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-01-18 09:01

WTXS31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 20.7S 57.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S 57.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 22.1S 55.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 23.6S 53.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 25.5S 52.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 28.1S 51.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 31.5S 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 33.5S 55.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 21.0S 57.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 40 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN 180526Z GMI 37GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND INTO A LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON THIS GMI IMAGE AND THE PGTW POSITION FIX. THE INTENSITY OF 65
KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM T3.5 TO T4.0 (55-65 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW
RESPECTIVELY. TC BERGUITTA IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE RIDGE
IS CURRENTLY RE-ORIENTING AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK AROUND
THE RIDGE FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER TAU 48, THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND IS FORECAST TO
COMPLETE (ETT) BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 96. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS MODERATE (15-20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS OFFSET BY POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS
ENHANCED BY THAT MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AFTER TAU 24 AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
INCREASES AND THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO AN AREA OF COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.//

2018-01-18 07:01

WTIO31 FMEE 180627

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 22/3/20172018
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 3 (BERGUITTA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 18/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 15 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.7 S / 57.5 E
(VINGT DEGRES SEPT SUD ET CINQUANTE SEPT DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.0/4.0/W 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 980 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 560 SO: 520 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 90
48 KT NE: SE: 70 SO: 70 NO:


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 18/01/2018 18 UTC: 22.4 S / 55.0 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 19/01/2018 06 UTC: 23.6 S / 53.2 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 19/01/2018 18 UTC: 25.6 S / 51.6 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 20/01/2018 06 UTC: 28.4 S / 50.5 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 20/01/2018 18 UTC: 31.4 S / 50.1 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 21/01/2018 06 UTC: 32.5 S / 50.7 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 22/01/2018 06 UTC: 33.6 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 23/01/2018 06 UTC: 36.1 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=3.0+ CI=4.0-

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION S'EST MAINTENUE A
PROXIMITE DU CENTRE. CEPENDANT, LE CDO RESTE DE TRES PETITE TAILLE.
LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES SSMIS DE CE MATIN ET LA PASSE GMI DE 0523Z
CONFIRMENT QUE LE COEUR DE LA CIRCULATION A DU MAL A SE RECONSTRUIRE
MALGRE L'ACCELARATION (CISAILLEMENT ANALYSE A 15KT PAR LE CIMSS).
L'ACTIVITE PRINCIPALE SE SITUE DANS LES BANDES PERIPHERIQUES. IL
CONTINUE CEPENDANT DE BENEFICIER D'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE OUEST. LA PRESSION CENTRALE A ETE ESTIMEE AVEC LES
DONNEES DE LA STATION DE PLAISANCE ET LA POSITION GRACE AUX DONNEES
RADAR DE LA REUNION. LE CENTRE EST VRAISEMBLABLEMENT PASSE A UNE
DIZAINE DE KILOMETRES DES COTES SUD-EST DE MAURICE PEU ENTRE 00 ET
03Z.

LE SYSTEME SE DIRIGE MAINTENANT VERS LE SUD-OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE
LA DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI SE RENFORCE A SON EST. DANS
LES PROCHAINES HEURES,BERGUITTA CONTINUERA SA TRAJECTOIRE EN
S'ELOIGNANT DE MAURICE ET EN PASSANT VRAISEMBLABLEMENT EN MER A MOINS
DE 100KM DE LA REUNION. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, LA RECONSTRUCTION DES
HAUTES PRESSIONS PLUS AU SUD DEVRAIT RALENTIR SA PLONGEE, AVANT QUE
LE SYSTEME BERGUITTA NE SOIT REPRIS DANS LA CIRCULATION DES LATITUDES
PLUS SUD.

LE SYSTEME SUBIT UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE DE NORD-EST SUR LA FACE
NORD-EST DE LA DORSALE PRECEDEMMENT MENTIONNEE. LA PREVISION
PRIVILEGIE TOUJOURS UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT LENT DANS LES PROCHAINES
HEURES AVEC UNE DIVERGENCE QUI RESTE TRES BONNE ET UNE VITESSE
SUFFISANTE. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DE
NORD-OUEST POURRAIT S'ACCROITRE A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG D'ALTITUDE. LE
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE SERA EGALEMENT MARGINAL A CETTE ECHEANCE.
BERGUITTA ENTAMERA ALORS SA PHASE D'EXTROPICALISATION.

MALGRE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ENREGISTRE AU COURS DES 24 DERNIA RES
HEURES, BERGUITTA RESTE UN SYSTEME DANGEREUX QUI EST PREVU SE
RAPPROCHER DE LA REUNION EN MAINTENANT UNE INTENSITE SIGNIFICATIVE.
LEURS HABITANTS SONT DONC INVITES A SE TENIR REGULIEREMENT AU COURANT
DE LA SITUATION.=

2018-01-18 07:01

WTIO30 FMEE 180627

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/3/20172018
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/18 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.7 S / 57.5 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL
FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/4.0/W 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 560 SW: 520 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 90
48 KT NE: SE: 70 SW: 70 NW:


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/18 18 UTC: 22.4 S / 55.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/01/19 06 UTC: 23.6 S / 53.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/01/19 18 UTC: 25.6 S / 51.6 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/01/20 06 UTC: 28.4 S / 50.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/01/20 18 UTC: 31.4 S / 50.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/01/21 06 UTC: 32.5 S / 50.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/22 06 UTC: 33.6 S / 54.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/01/23 06 UTC: 36.1 S / 58.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0+ CI=4.0-

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAINTAINED NEAR THE
CENTRE. HOWEVER THE CDO IS VERY SMALL. THIS MORNING SSMIS AND 0523Z
GMI
MICROWAVE SWATHS CONFIRMED THAT THE INNER CORE IS HARDLY REBUILDING
DESPITE THE ACCELERATION (SHEAR ANALYSED AT 15KT BY CIMSS). MAIN
ACTIVITY IS LOCATED IN THE PERIPHERAL BANDS. THE SYSTEM IS STILL
BENEFITING FROM A GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE WESTERN CIRCLE. MSLP
WAS ESTIMATED WITH PLAISANCE OBSERVATIONS, AND THE POSITION WITH LA
REUNION RADAR DATA. THE CENTER PROBABLY PASSED A DOZEN KILOMETERS
OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH-EASTERN COASTS OF MAURITIUS BETWEEN 00 AND 03Z.

THE SYSTEM IS NOW TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF A
BUILDING MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE LOCATED EAST. TODAY, BERGUITTA IS
FORECASTED TO KEEP ON ITS MOVEMENT, MOVING AWAY FROM MAURITIUS AND
PASSING AT LESS THAN 100KM FROM LA REUNION ISLAND SOUTH-EASTERN
COAST. IT WILL THEN CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD BEFORE TRACKING
SOUTHWARDS. LATER, HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER SOUTH SHOULD SLOW DOWN THE
MOVING OF BERGUITTA, AND NEXT THE SYSTEM BERGUITTA SHOULD FOLLOW THE
MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION.

THE SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING A MODERATE NORTHEASTERN VERICAL WINDSHEAR
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE. INTENSITY
FORECAST CONTINUE TO FAVOUR A SLOW WEAKENING AS THE MAIN SCENARIO.
, WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND A RATHER FAST SPEED. FROM SATURDAY,
NORTHWESTWARD VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS FORECASTED TO INCREASE AHEAD AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. OCEANIC POTENTIAL WILL BECOME MARGINAL AT THIS
RANGE. BERGUITTA IS EXPECTED THEN TO START ITS EXTRATROPICALISATION
PHASE.

HOWEVER THE WEAKENING OF THE LAST 24 HOURS BERGUITTA REMAINS A
DANGEROUS SYSTEM WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE CLOSER TO REUNION ISLAND
AT A SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY. INHABITANTS ARE INVITED TO MONITOR
CLOSELY THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.=

2018-01-18 06:16

WTIO22 FMEE 180613
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/01/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 022/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 18/01/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.7 S / 57.5 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
200 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMI-CERCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 280 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/18 AT 18 UTC:
22.4 S / 55.0 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/19 AT 06 UTC:
23.6 S / 53.2 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-01-18 03:16

WTXS51 PGTW 180300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 180118012627
2018011800 06S BERGUITTA 022 01 230 11 SATL 040
T000 197S 0585E 065 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 170 SE QD
165 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 212S 0565E 065 R064 000 NE QD 035 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 210 SE QD
195 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 226S 0544E 065 R064 015 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 075 SE QD 060 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 245 SE QD
220 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 242S 0527E 065 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 085 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 255 SE QD
225 SW QD 105 NW QD
T048 262S 0515E 060 R050 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R034
175 NE QD 240 SE QD 200 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 307S 0510E 055 R050 045 NE QD 080 SE QD 095 SW QD 075 NW QD R034
200 NE QD 250 SE QD 195 SW QD 160 NW QD
T096 331S 0541E 050 R050 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
205 NE QD 295 SE QD 290 SW QD 240 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 022
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 19.7S 58.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

2018-01-18 03:16

WTXS51 PGTW 180300
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 180118012627
2018011800 06S BERGUITTA 022 01 230 11 SATL 040
T000 197S 0585E 065 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 170 SE QD 165 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 212S 0565E 065 R064 000 NE QD 035 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 210 SE QD 195 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 226S 0544E 065 R064 015 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 075 SE QD 060 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 245 SE QD 220 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 242S 0527E 065 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 085 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 255 SE QD 225 SW QD 105 NW QD
T048 262S 0515E 060 R050 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 240 SE QD 200 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 307S 0510E 055 R050 045 NE QD 080 SE QD 095 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 250 SE QD 195 SW QD 160 NW QD
T096 331S 0541E 050 R050 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 205 NE QD 295 SE QD 290 SW QD 240 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 022
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 19.7S 58.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 58.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 21.2S 56.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 22.6S 54.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 24.2S 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 26.2S 51.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 30.7S 51.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 33.1S 54.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 20.1S 58.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 72 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.
//
0618011100 130S 679E 15
0618011106 131S 683E 20
0618011112 137S 687E 30
0618011118 146S 690E 30
0618011200 153S 690E 30
0618011206 162S 685E 30
0618011212 168S 676E 30
0618011218 170S 669E 35
0618011300 174S 658E 35
0618011306 176S 651E 40
0618011312 181S 644E 40
0618011318 182S 638E 40
0618011400 182S 634E 50
0618011400 182S 634E 50
0618011406 182S 632E 55
0618011406 182S 632E 55
0618011412 181S 631E 55
0618011412 181S 631E 55
0618011418 180S 631E 55
0618011418 180S 631E 55
0618011500 178S 632E 65
0618011500 178S 632E 65
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011512 180S 630E 90
0618011512 180S 630E 90
0618011512 180S 630E 90
0618011518 180S 626E 100
0618011518 180S 626E 100
0618011518 180S 626E 100
0618011600 180S 621E 100
0618011600 180S 621E 100
0618011600 180S 621E 100
0618011606 180S 616E 95
0618011606 180S 616E 95
0618011606 180S 616E 95
0618011612 181S 612E 85
0618011612 181S 612E 85
0618011612 181S 612E 85
0618011618 181S 609E 80
0618011618 181S 609E 80
0618011618 181S 609E 80
0618011700 181S 606E 75
0618011700 181S 606E 75
0618011700 181S 606E 75
0618011706 182S 602E 70
0618011706 182S 602E 70
0618011706 182S 602E 70
0618011712 185S 599E 65
0618011712 185S 599E 65
0618011712 185S 599E 65
0618011718 190S 594E 65
0618011718 190S 594E 65
0618011800 197S 585E 65
0618011800 197S 585E 65
0618011800 197S 585E 65

2018-01-18 03:16

WTXS31 PGTW 180300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 19.7S 58.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 58.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 21.2S 56.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-01-18 03:16

WTXS31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 19.7S 58.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 58.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 21.2S 56.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 22.6S 54.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 24.2S 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 26.2S 51.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 30.7S 51.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 33.1S 54.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 20.1S 58.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 72 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING ALONG THE
NORTHERN PORTION, AND INTO THE CENTER, OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 172258Z SSMI IMAGE. THE CURRENT POSITION
IS BASED ON THIS SSMI IMAGE AND RECENT FIXES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING
AGENCIES. THE INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH AGENCY
CURRENT INTENSITY AND AUTOMATED, SATELLITE-DERIVED INTENSITY
ESTIMATES. TC 06S IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
REORIENTING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING AROUND THIS RIDGE DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD, COMPLETING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BETWEEN TAU 72
AND TAU 96. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS PERSISTENT EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR COMPETES WITH THE FAVORABLE INFLUENCE OF
VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY IN
THE MEDIUM TO EXTENDED-RANGE AS THE LLCC TRACKS OVER COOLER WATER
AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT RECEIVES
OFFSETTING BAROCLINIC SUPPORT DURING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE
CURRENT, HIGH-CONFIDENCE FORECAST TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH CONSENSUS
MODEL TRACKERS, WHICH REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z,
181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.//

2018-01-18 01:01

WTIO31 FMEE 180035

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 21/3/20172018
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 3 (BERGUITTA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 18/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.9 S / 58.5 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES NEUF SUD ET CINQUANTE HUIT DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.5/4.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 975 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 560 SO: 560 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 18/01/2018 12 UTC: 21.5 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 19/01/2018 00 UTC: 22.8 S / 54.0 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 19/01/2018 12 UTC: 24.2 S / 52.3 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 20/01/2018 00 UTC: 26.3 S / 51.0 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 20/01/2018 12 UTC: 29.4 S / 50.4 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 21/01/2018 00 UTC: 31.8 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 22/01/2018 00 UTC: 33.1 S / 52.8 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
120H: 23/01/2018 00 UTC: 34.3 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=3.5+ CI=4.0+

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LE SYSTEME A ACCELERE EN DIRECTION
DU SUD-OUEST, SA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT LUI PERMET MAINTENANT
D'ATTENUE LES EFFETS DE LA CONTRAINTE DE NORD-EST QU'IL SUBIT DEPUIS
HIER. IL PRESENTE MAINTENANT UNE MEILLEURE PESENTATION NUAGEUX CAR IL
CONTINE DE BENEFICIER D'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE
SUD-OUEST.

LE SYSTEME SE DIRRIGE MAINTENANT VERS LE SUD-OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE
DE LA DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI SE RENFORCE A SON EST. DANS
LES PROCHAINES HEURES, BERGUITTA EST PREVU CONTINUER A ACCELERER AVEC
L'A LE MAURICE ET LA RA UNION EN 1IERE LIGNE DE MIRE. BERGUITTA
CONTINUERA ENSUITE SA TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST AVANT DE
PLONGER PLUS FRANCHEMENT VERS LE SUD. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, LA
RECONSTRUCTION DES HAUTES PRESSIONS PLUS AU SUD DEVRAIT RALENTIR SA
PLONGEE, AVANT QUE LE SYSTEME BERGUITTA NE SOIT REPRIS DANS LA
CIRCULATION DES LATITUDES PLUS SUD.

LE SYSTEME SUBIT UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE DE NORD-EST SUR LA FACE
NORD-EST DE LA DORSALE PRECEDEMMENT MENTIONNEE. MAIS EN ACCELERANT
DANS LA MA ME DIRECTION, LES EFFETS NEFASTES DE CE CISAILLEMENT
DEVRAIT A TRE ATTENUES. POUR AUTANT, LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE DEVRAIT
RESTER BONNE AVEC NOTAMMENT UN CANAL D'EVACUATION POLAIRE EFFICACE.
LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT DONC CONSERVER LE STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE
QUAND IL TRANSITERA AU PLUS PRES DE L'A LE MAURICE ET DE LA REUNION.
A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DE NORD-OUEST
DEVRAIT S'ACCROITRE A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG D'ALTITUDE ET AFFAIBLIR
SIGNIFICATIVEMENT LE SYSTEME.

MALGRE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ENREGISTRE AU COURS DES 24 DERNIA RES
HEURES, BERGUITTA RESTE UN SYSTEME TRES DANGEREUX QUI EST PREVU SE
RAPPROCHER DE LA REUNION ET DE MAURICE EN MAINTENANT UNE INTENSITE
SIGNIFICATIVE. LEURS HABITANTS SONT DONC INVITES A SE TENIR
REGULIEREMENT AU COURANT DE LA SITUATION.LE SYSTEME A=

2018-01-18 01:01

WTIO30 FMEE 180035

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/3/20172018
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/18 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.9 S / 58.5 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL
FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 560 SW: 560 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/18 12 UTC: 21.5 S / 56.4 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/01/19 00 UTC: 22.8 S / 54.0 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/01/19 12 UTC: 24.2 S / 52.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/01/20 00 UTC: 26.3 S / 51.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/01/20 12 UTC: 29.4 S / 50.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/01/21 00 UTC: 31.8 S / 50.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/22 00 UTC: 33.1 S / 52.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/01/23 00 UTC: 34.3 S / 55.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5+ CI=4.0+

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS ACCELERED SOUTH-WESTWARD, ITS
SPEED IS MINIMIZING THE EFFETS OF THE NORTH-EASTERN UPPER LEVEL
CONSTRAINT WHICH IT UNDERGOES SINCE YESTERDAY. THE CLOUD PRESENTATION
HAS A LITTLE IMPROVED AS THE SYSTEM ALWAYS BENEFICIT OF A GOOD UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE SOUTH-WEST SEMI-CERCLE.

THE SYSTEM IS NOW TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF A
BUILDING MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE LOCATED EAST. TODAY, BERGUITTA IS
FORECASTED TO GOING ON ACCELERATING
TOWARD MAURITIUS AND THEN REUNION ISLAND. AFTER ITS PASSING BY THE
REUNION ISLAND, BERGUITTA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD BEFORE
TRACKING SOUTHWARDS. LATER, HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER SOUTH SHOULD SLOW
DOWN THE MOVING OF BERGUITTA, AND NEXT THE SYSTEM BERGUITTA SHOULD
FOLLOW THE MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING A MODERATE NORTHEASTERN VERICAL WINDSHEAR
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE. BUT THE
EFFECTS OF THIS CONSTRAINT SHOULD BE ATTENUED AS THE SYSTEM
ACCELERATES TOWARD THE SAME DIRECTION. AT THE SAME TIME, THE UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN GOOD WITH AN EFFICIENT
POLERWARD CHANNEL. SO THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE TROPICAL
STATUS WHEN IT WILL TRANSIT NEAR THE MAURITIUS AND REUNION ISLAND.
FROM SATURDAY, NORTHWESTWARD VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS FORECASTED TO
INCREASE AHEAD AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY
BERGUITTA.

HOWEVER THE WEAKENING OF THE LAST 24 HOURS BERGUITTA REMAINS A VERY
DANGEROUS SYSTEM WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE CLOSER MAURICE AND REUNION
ISLANDS AT A SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY. INHABITANTS ARE INVITED TO
MONITOR CLOSELY THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE NEXT DAYS.=

2018-01-18 00:46

WTIO22 FMEE 180034 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/01/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 021/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 18/01/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA) 975 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.9 S / 58.5 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
200 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CERCLE, AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN SECTOR.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/18 AT 12 UTC:
21.5 S / 56.4 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/19 AT 00 UTC:
22.8 S / 54.0 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-01-18 00:31

WTIO22 FMEE 180017
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/01/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 18/01/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA) 975 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.9 S / 58.5 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
200 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CERCLE, AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN SECTOR.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/18 AT 12 UTC:
21.5 S / 56.4 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/19 AT 00 UTC:
22.8 S / 54.0 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-01-17 21:16

WTXS51 PGTW 172100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 180117202245
2018011718 06S BERGUITTA 021 01 225 06 SATL 030
T000 189S 0595E 065 R050 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
110 NE QD 170 SE QD 165 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 201S 0580E 065 R064 000 NE QD 025 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 065 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 210 SE QD
205 SW QD 085 NW QD
T024 215S 0560E 065 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 075 SE QD 055 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 225 SE QD
210 SW QD 095 NW QD
T036 231S 0540E 065 R064 005 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 065 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 255 SE QD
225 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 251S 0524E 060 R050 045 NE QD 065 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
145 NE QD 245 SE QD 215 SW QD 095 NW QD
T072 300S 0511E 055 R050 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R034
175 NE QD 225 SE QD 185 SW QD 135 NW QD
T096 324S 0530E 050 R050 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
160 NE QD 280 SE QD 240 SW QD 170 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 021
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 18.9S 59.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

2018-01-17 21:16

WTXS51 PGTW 172100
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 180117202245
2018011718 06S BERGUITTA 021 01 225 06 SATL 030
T000 189S 0595E 065 R050 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 170 SE QD 165 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 201S 0580E 065 R064 000 NE QD 025 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 065 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 210 SE QD 205 SW QD 085 NW QD
T024 215S 0560E 065 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 075 SE QD 055 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 225 SE QD 210 SW QD 095 NW QD
T036 231S 0540E 065 R064 005 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 065 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 255 SE QD 225 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 251S 0524E 060 R050 045 NE QD 065 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 245 SE QD 215 SW QD 095 NW QD
T072 300S 0511E 055 R050 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 225 SE QD 185 SW QD 135 NW QD
T096 324S 0530E 050 R050 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 280 SE QD 240 SW QD 170 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 021
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 18.9S 59.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 59.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 20.1S 58.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 21.5S 56.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 23.1S 54.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 25.1S 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 30.0S 51.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 32.4S 53.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 59.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 144 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z.
//
0618011100 130S 679E 15
0618011106 131S 683E 20
0618011112 137S 687E 30
0618011118 146S 690E 30
0618011200 153S 690E 30
0618011206 162S 685E 30
0618011212 168S 676E 30
0618011218 170S 669E 35
0618011300 174S 658E 35
0618011306 176S 651E 40
0618011312 181S 644E 40
0618011318 182S 638E 40
0618011400 182S 634E 50
0618011400 182S 634E 50
0618011406 182S 632E 55
0618011406 182S 632E 55
0618011412 181S 631E 55
0618011412 181S 631E 55
0618011418 180S 631E 55
0618011418 180S 631E 55
0618011500 178S 632E 65
0618011500 178S 632E 65
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011512 180S 630E 90
0618011512 180S 630E 90
0618011512 180S 630E 90
0618011518 180S 626E 100
0618011518 180S 626E 100
0618011518 180S 626E 100
0618011600 180S 621E 100
0618011600 180S 621E 100
0618011600 180S 621E 100
0618011606 180S 616E 95
0618011606 180S 616E 95
0618011606 180S 616E 95
0618011612 181S 612E 85
0618011612 181S 612E 85
0618011612 181S 612E 85
0618011618 181S 609E 80
0618011618 181S 609E 80
0618011618 181S 609E 80
0618011700 181S 606E 75
0618011700 181S 606E 75
0618011700 181S 606E 75
0618011706 182S 602E 70
0618011706 182S 602E 70
0618011706 182S 602E 70
0618011712 185S 599E 65
0618011712 185S 599E 65
0618011712 185S 599E 65
0618011718 189S 595E 65
0618011718 189S 595E 65

2018-01-17 21:16

WTXS31 PGTW 172100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 18.9S 59.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 59.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 20.1S 58.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-01-17 21:16

WTXS31 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 18.9S 59.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 59.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 20.1S 58.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 21.5S 56.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 23.1S 54.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 25.1S 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 30.0S 51.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 32.4S 53.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 59.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 144 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHIELD OF RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN
A 171715Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS AND A 1758Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THESE ASCAT PASSES, WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT
MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED SATELLITE INTENSITY CONSENSUS
ESTIMATES. TC 06S IS TURNING POLEWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF A REORIENTING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD, BEGINNING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72
AND COMPLETING BY TAU 96. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
STEADY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
UNFAVORABLE, MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EXERT COMPETING
INFLUENCES. MARGINAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE MEDIUM TO
EXTENDED-RANGE AS THE TC 06S TRACKS OVER COOLER WATER AND ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT RECEIVES OFFSETTING BAROCLINIC
SUPPORT AS IT UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE CURRENT, HIGH-
CONFIDENCE FORECAST TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH CONSENSUS MODEL
TRACKERS, WHICH REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z,
181500Z AND 182100Z.//

2018-01-17 19:01

WTIO31 FMEE 171818

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 20/3/20172018
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 3 (BERGUITTA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 17/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.0 S / 59.3 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES ZERO SUD ET CINQUANTE NEUF DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/18 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 972 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 480 SO: 560 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 200 SO: 150 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 18/01/2018 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 57.5 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 18/01/2018 18 UTC: 22.0 S / 55.1 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 19/01/2018 06 UTC: 23.5 S / 52.8 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 19/01/2018 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 51.0 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 20/01/2018 06 UTC: 27.8 S / 50.1 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 20/01/2018 18 UTC: 31.5 S / 49.8 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 21/01/2018 18 UTC: 33.6 S / 51.9 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 22/01/2018 18 UTC: 34.1 S / 56.3 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=3.5+ CI=4.0+

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA STRUCTURE DU SYSTEME A PEU
CHANGEE. ET C'EST MAINTENANT DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST DE LA
CIRCULATION QUE LA CONVECTION PROFONDE PRESENTE UNE FAIBLESSE.
L'ANIMATION SATELLITE MONTRE LE SYSTEME COMMENCE A SOUFFRIR D'UN
CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-EST MAIS CONSERVE UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE DANS
L'OUEST DU SYSTEME

SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES, LE SYSTEME CONFIRME SON VIRAGE VERS LE
SUD-OUEST DIRIGE PAR LA DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI SE
RENFORCE A SON EST. DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES, BERGUITTA EST PREVU
CONTINUER A ACCELERER AVEC L'A LE MAURICE ET LA RA UNION EN 1IERE
LIGNE DE MIRE. BERGUITTA CONTINUERA ENSUITE SA TRAJECTOIRE EN
DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST AVANT DE PLONGER PLUS FRANCHEMENT VERS LE SUD.
EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, LA RECONSTRUCTION DES HAUTES PRESSIONS PLUS AU SUD
DEVRAIT RALENTIR SA PLONGEE, AVANT QUE LE SYSTEME BERGUITTA NE SOIT
REPRIS DANS LA CIRCULATION DES LATITUDES PLUS SUD.

LE SYSTEME SUBIT UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE DE NORD-EST SUR LA FACE
NORD-EST DE LA DORSALE PRECEDEMMENT MENTIONNEE. MAIS EN ACCELERANT
DANS LA MA ME DIRECTION, LES EFFETS NEFASTES DE CE CISAILLEMENT
DEVRAIT A TRE ATTENUES.
POUR AUTANT, LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE DEVRAIT RESTER BONNE AVEC
NOTAMMENT UN CANAL D'EVACUATION POLAIRE EFFICACE. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
DONC CONSERVER LE STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE QUAND IL
TRANSITERA AU PLUS PRES DE L'A LE MAURICE ET DE LA REUNION. A PARTIR
DE SAMEDI, LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DE NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT
S'ACCROITRE A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG D'ALTITUDE ET AFFAIBLIR
SIGNIFICATIVEMENT LE SYSTEME.

MALGRE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ENREGISTRE AU COURS DES 24 DERNIA RES
HEURES, BERGUITTA RESTE UN SYSTEME TRES DANGEREUX QUI EST PREVU SE
RAPPROCHER DE LA REUNION ET DE MAURICE EN MAINTENANT UNE INTENSITE
SIGNIFICATIVE. LEURS HABITANTS SONT DONC INVITES A SE TENIR
REGULIEREMENT AU COURANT DE LA SITUATION.=

2018-01-17 19:01

WTIO30 FMEE 171818

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/3/20172018
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/17 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.0 S / 59.3 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL
THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 972 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 480 SW: 560 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 200 SW: 150 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/18 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 57.5 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/01/18 18 UTC: 22.0 S / 55.1 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/01/19 06 UTC: 23.5 S / 52.8 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/01/19 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 51.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/01/20 06 UTC: 27.8 S / 50.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/01/20 18 UTC: 31.5 S / 49.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/21 18 UTC: 33.6 S / 51.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/01/22 18 UTC: 34.1 S / 56.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5+ CI=4.0+

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED
QUITE SIMILAR AND THE WEAKNESS INTO DEEP CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE NOW
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION.
ANIMATED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT BERGUITTA BEGINS TO EXPERIENCE A
NORTHEASTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, BUT KEEP A VERY GOOD DIVERGENCE IN
WESTERN PART.

LAST SATELLITE IMAGERIES CONFIRM THAT BERGUITTA HAS BENT
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF A BUILDING MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE LOCATED EAST. THIS NIGHT, BERGUITTA IS FORECASTED TO GOING ON
ACCELERATING
TOWARD MAURITIUS AND THEN REUNION ISLAND. AFTER ITS PASSING BY THE
REUNION ISLAND, BERGUITTA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD BEFORE
TRACKING SOUTHWARDS. LATER, HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER SOUTH SHOULD SLOW
DOWN THE MOVING OF BERGUITTA, AND NEXT THE SYSTEM BERGUITTA SHOULD
FOLLOW THE MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING A MODERATE NORTHEASTERN VERICAL WINDSHEAR
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE. BUT THE
EFFECTS OF THIS CONSTRAINT SHOULD BE ATTENUED AS THE SYSTEM
ACCELERATES TOWARD THE SAME DIRECTION. AT THE SAME TIME, THE UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN GOOD WITH AN EFFICIENT
POLERWARD CHANNEL. SO THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE TROPICAL
STATUS WHEN IT WILL TRANSIT NEAR THE MAURITIUS AND REUNION ISLAND.
FROM SATURDAY, NORTHWESTWARD VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS FORECASTED TO
INCREASE AHEAD AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY
BERGUITTA.

HOWEVER THE WEAKENING OF THE LAST 24 HOURS BERGUITTA REMAINS A VERY
DANGEROUS SYSTEM WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE CLOSER MAURICE AND REUNION
ISLANDS AT A SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY. INHABITANTS ARE INVITED TO
MONITOR CLOSELY THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE NEXT DAYS.=

2018-01-17 18:16

WTIO22 FMEE 171810
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/01/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 020/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 17/01/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA) 972 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.0 S / 59.3 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
150 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CERCLE, AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN SECTOR.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 260 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/18 AT 06 UTC:
20.6 S / 57.5 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/18 AT 18 UTC:
22.0 S / 55.1 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-01-17 13:01

WTIO31 FMEE 171231

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/3/20172018
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 3 (BERGUITTA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 17/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.5 S / 59.7 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES CINQ SUD ET CINQUANTE NEUF DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/18 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 970 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 480 SO: 560 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 200 SO: 150 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 18/01/2018 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 18/01/2018 12 UTC: 21.4 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 19/01/2018 00 UTC: 22.6 S / 53.7 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 19/01/2018 12 UTC: 23.9 S / 52.0 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 20/01/2018 00 UTC: 25.8 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 20/01/2018 12 UTC: 28.8 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 21/01/2018 12 UTC: 33.3 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 22/01/2018 12 UTC: 33.4 S / 53.6 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=3.5+ CI=4.0+

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, DE FORTES POUSSEES CONVECTIVES SE
SONT PRODUITES PRES DU CENTRE MAIS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST DE LA
CIRCULATION RESTE PARTIELLEMENT EXPOSEE. LES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES
AMSR2 DE 0822Z CONFIRME QUE LA CONVECTION PROFONDE RESTE LOCALISEE
DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST. L'ANIMATION SATELLITE MONTRE LE SYSTEME
COMMENCE A SOUFFRIR D'UN CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-EST.

SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES, LE SYSTEME SEMBLE AVOIR DEBUTE SON VIRAGE
VERS LE SUD-OUEST DIRIGE PAR LA DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI SE
RENFORCE A SON EST. DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES, BERGUITTA EST PREVU
ACCELERER AVEC L'A LE MAURICE ET LA RA UNION EN 1IERE LIGNE DE MIRE.
BERGUITTA CONTINUERA ENSUITE SA TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST
AVANT DE PLONGER PLUS FRANCHEMENT VERS LE SUD. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, LA
RECONSTRUCTION DES HAUTES PRESSIONS PLUS AU SUD DEVRAIT RALENTIR SA
PLONGEE, AVANT QUE LE SYSTEME BERGUITTA NE SOIT REPRIS DANS LA
CIRCULATION DES LATITUDES PLUS SUD.

LE SYSTEME SUBIT UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE DE NORD-EST SUR LA FACE
NORD-EST DE LA DORSALE PRECEDEMMENT MENTIONNEE. MAIS EN ACCELERANT
DANS LA MA ME DIRECTION, LES EFFETS NEFASTES DE CE CISAILLEMENT
DEVRAIT A TRE ATTENUES. DANS LE MEME TEMPS, LES MODELES NUMERIQUES
MONTRENT QUE L'AIR SEC D'ORIGINE STRATOSPHERIQUE DANS LE SUD-OUEST DE
BERGUITTA DEVRAIT INTERFA RER AVEC LE SYSTEME. POUR AUTANT, LA
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE DEVRAIT RESTER BONNE AVEC NOTAMMENT UN CANAL
D'EVACUATION POLAIRE EFFICACE. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT DONC CONSERVER LE
STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE QUAND IL TRANSITERA AU PLUS PRES DE
L'A LE MAURICE ET DE LA REUNION. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, LE CISAILLEMENT
VERTICAL DE VENT DE NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT S'ACCROITRE A L'AVANT D'UN
TALWEG D'ALTITUDE ET AFFAIBLIR SIGNIFICATIVEMENT LE SYSTEME.

MALGRE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ENREGISTRE AU COURS DES 24 DERNIA RES
HEURES, BERGUITTA RESTE UN SYSTEME TRES DANGEREUX QUI EST PREVU SE
RAPPROCHER DE LA REUNION ET DE MAURICE EN MAINTENANT UNE INTENSITE
SIGNIFICATIVE. LEURS HABITANTS SONT DONC INVITES A SE TENIR
REGULIEREMENT AU COURANT DE LA SITUATION.=

2018-01-17 13:01

WTIO30 FMEE 171231

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/3/20172018
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/17 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5 S / 59.7 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL
SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 480 SW: 560 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 200 SW: 150 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/18 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 58.2 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/01/18 12 UTC: 21.4 S / 55.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/01/19 00 UTC: 22.6 S / 53.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/01/19 12 UTC: 23.9 S / 52.0 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/01/20 00 UTC: 25.8 S / 50.6 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/01/20 12 UTC: 28.8 S / 50.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/21 12 UTC: 33.3 S / 50.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/01/22 12 UTC: 33.4 S / 53.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5+ CI=4.0+

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, STRONG BURSTS OF CONVECTION HAVE OCCURRED
NEAR THE CENTER BUT THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRLE OF THE CIRCULATION REMAINS
PARTIALLY EXPOSED. 0822Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE DATA CONFIRMS THAT DEEP
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ANIMATED
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT BERGUITTA BEGINS TO EXPERIENCE A NORTHEASTERN
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.

LAST SATELLITE IMAGERIES SHOW THAT BERGUITTA HAS BEGAN TU BEND
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF A BUILDING MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE LOCATED EAST. THIS NIGHT, BERGUITTA IS FORECASTED TO ACCELERATE
TOWARD MAURITIUS AND THEN REUNION ISLAND. AFTER THE PASSAGE TO THE
NEAREST OF THE ISLANDS, BERGUITTA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD BEFORE TRACKING SOUTHWARDS. LATER, HIGH PRESSURE
FURTHER SOUTH SHOULD SLOW DOWN THE MOVING OF BERGUITTA, AND NEXT THE
SYSTEM BERGUITTA SHOULD FOLLOW THE MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING A MODERATE NORTHEASTERN VERICAL WINDSHEAR
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE. BUT THE
EFFECTS OF THIS CONSTRAINT SHOULD BE ATTENUED AS THE SYSTEM
ACCELERATES TOWARD THE SAME DIRECTION. MOREOVER, MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
THAT THE DRY AIR LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN WITH A STRATOSPHERIC
ORIGIN SHOULD INTERFERE WITH THE SYSTEM. FOR ALL THAT, THE UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN GOOD WITH AN EFFICIENT
POLERWARD CHANNEL. SO THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE TROPICAL
STATUS WHEN IT WILL TRANSIT NEAR THE MAURITIUS AND REUNION ISLAND.
FROM SATURDAY, NORTHWESTWARD VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS FORECASTED TO
INCREASE AHEAD AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY
BERGUITTA.

HOWEVER THE WEAKENING OF THE LAST 24 HOURS BERGUITTA REMAINS A VERY
DANGEROUS SYSTEM WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE CLOSER MAURICE AND REUNION
ISLANDS AT A SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY. INHABITANTS ARE INVITED TO
MONITOR CLOSELY THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE NEXT DAYS.=

2018-01-17 12:31

WTIO22 FMEE 171228 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/01/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 17/01/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA) 970 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5 S / 59.7 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 260 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/18 AT 00 UTC:
20.1 S / 58.2 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/18 AT 12 UTC:
21.4 S / 55.9 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-01-17 12:16

WTIO22 FMEE 171202
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/01/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 17/01/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA) 970 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5 S / 59.8 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 260 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/18 AT 00 UTC:
20.1 S / 58.2 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/18 AT 12 UTC:
21.4 S / 55.9 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-01-17 08:46

WTXS51 PGTW 170900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 180117073341
2018011706 06S BERGUITTA 019 01 270 04 SATL 025
T000 181S 0602E 070 R064 005 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
015 NE QD 075 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 090 SE QD
110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 190S 0590E 070 R064 015 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 230 SE QD
260 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 201S 0574E 070 R064 020 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 085 SE QD 075 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 240 SE QD
215 SW QD 125 NW QD
T036 214S 0554E 070 R064 015 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 250 SE QD
220 SW QD 125 NW QD
T048 228S 0535E 065 R064 020 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 240 SE QD
215 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 267S 0511E 055 R050 085 NE QD 095 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD R034
180 NE QD 220 SE QD 175 SW QD 105 NW QD
T096 310S 0514E 050 R050 045 NE QD 075 SE QD 085 SW QD 065 NW QD R034
200 NE QD 240 SE QD 210 SW QD 160 NW QD
T120 338S 0554E 045 R034 165 NE QD 320 SE QD 280 SW QD 235 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 019
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 18.1S 60.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS

2018-01-17 08:46

WTXS31 PGTW 170900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 18.1S 60.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 60.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 19.0S 59.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-01-17 08:31

WTXS51 PGTW 170900
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 180117073341
2018011706 06S BERGUITTA 019 01 270 04 SATL 025
T000 181S 0602E 070 R064 005 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 015 NE QD 075 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 190S 0590E 070 R064 015 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 230 SE QD 260 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 201S 0574E 070 R064 020 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 085 SE QD 075 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 240 SE QD 215 SW QD 125 NW QD
T036 214S 0554E 070 R064 015 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 250 SE QD 220 SW QD 125 NW QD
T048 228S 0535E 065 R064 020 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 240 SE QD 215 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 267S 0511E 055 R050 085 NE QD 095 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 220 SE QD 175 SW QD 105 NW QD
T096 310S 0514E 050 R050 045 NE QD 075 SE QD 085 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 240 SE QD 210 SW QD 160 NW QD
T120 338S 0554E 045 R034 165 NE QD 320 SE QD 280 SW QD 235 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 019
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 18.1S 60.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 60.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 19.0S 59.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 20.1S 57.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 21.4S 55.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 22.8S 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 26.7S 51.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 31.0S 51.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 33.8S 55.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
235 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 59.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 204 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.
//
0618011100 130S 679E 15
0618011106 131S 683E 20
0618011112 137S 687E 30
0618011118 146S 690E 30
0618011200 153S 690E 30
0618011206 162S 685E 30
0618011212 168S 676E 30
0618011218 170S 669E 35
0618011300 174S 658E 35
0618011306 176S 651E 40
0618011312 181S 644E 40
0618011318 182S 638E 40
0618011400 182S 634E 50
0618011400 182S 634E 50
0618011406 182S 632E 55
0618011406 182S 632E 55
0618011412 181S 631E 55
0618011412 181S 631E 55
0618011418 180S 631E 55
0618011418 180S 631E 55
0618011500 178S 632E 65
0618011500 178S 632E 65
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011512 180S 630E 90
0618011512 180S 630E 90
0618011512 180S 630E 90
0618011518 180S 626E 100
0618011518 180S 626E 100
0618011518 180S 626E 100
0618011600 180S 621E 100
0618011600 180S 621E 100
0618011600 180S 621E 100
0618011606 180S 616E 95
0618011606 180S 616E 95
0618011606 180S 616E 95
0618011612 181S 612E 85
0618011612 181S 612E 85
0618011612 181S 612E 85
0618011618 181S 609E 80
0618011618 181S 609E 80
0618011618 181S 609E 80
0618011700 181S 606E 75
0618011700 181S 606E 75
0618011700 181S 606E 75
0618011706 181S 602E 70
0618011706 181S 602E 70
0618011706 181S 602E 70

2018-01-17 08:31

WTXS31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 18.1S 60.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 60.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 19.0S 59.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 20.1S 57.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 21.4S 55.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 22.8S 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 26.7S 51.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 31.0S 51.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 33.8S 55.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
235 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 59.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 204 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH A DENSE OVERCAST
LAYER OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION WHICH IS BASED ON A 170528Z METOP-
A ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING THE LLCC NEAR THE EDGE OF SWATH AND THE
CORRESPONDING 89GHZ AMSU IMAGE DEPICTING WEAK CONVECTION EMANATING
FROM THE CENTER SHEARED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.0 TO T4.5 (65 TO 77 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS A POINT SOURCE DIRECTLY OVER THE SYSTEM WITH A STRONG
POLEWARD FEED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE JET. SSTS IN THE AREA ARE ALSO
WARM AROUND 28 CELSIUS. TC 06S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTHEAST WITH A STRONG RIDGE EXTENSION PROTRUDING WESTWARD JUST
SOUTH OF TC 06S. THE RIDGE EXTENSION IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND GUIDE TC 06S ON A SOUTHWEST TRACK FOR
THROUGH TAU 48. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE TO
SUSTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY AROUND 70 KNOTS WITH MINOR
FLUCTUATIONS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AROUND TAU 72 A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL ERODE THE WESTERN EXTENT OF
THE RIDGE AXIS AND SHIFT THE TRACK TO SOUTH THEN SOUTHEAST AS IT
ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS. INTERACTION WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL
INDUCE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BAROCLINIC INSTABILITY CONTRIBUTING
TO A WEAKENING TREND. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 120 AS IT ACCELERATES SOUTHEASTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A NARROW MARGIN OF
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS. ALTHOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
BEEN SLOW TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PERSISTENT RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF TC
06S, RESULTING IN A MORE WESTWARD TRACK IN THE LAST 24 HOURS THAN
EXPECTED, SOLUTIONS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A
TRAJECTORY OVER THE ISLANDS OF MAURITIUS AND LA REUNION. OVERALL
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z,
172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.//

2018-01-17 08:16

WTIO31 FMEE 170721

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/3/20172018
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 3 (BERGUITTA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 17/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.4 S / 60.0 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.0/4.0/W 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 970 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 480 SO: 560 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 200 SO: 150 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 17/01/2018 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 59.0 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 18/01/2018 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 57.3 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 18/01/2018 18 UTC: 21.9 S / 55.0 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 19/01/2018 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 52.8 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 19/01/2018 18 UTC: 25.1 S / 51.2 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 20/01/2018 06 UTC: 27.3 S / 50.0 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 21/01/2018 06 UTC: 32.2 S / 49.4 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 22/01/2018 06 UTC: 33.7 S / 51.2 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=4.0- CI=4.0+

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LE SYSTEME A MONTRE DES SIGNES
D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT. LA CONVECTION PROFONDE RESTE FORTE DANS LE
QUADRANT NORD-OUEST MAIS LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES EST
PARTIELLEMENT EXPOSEE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST. L'IMAGERIE
VAPEUR-D'EAU MONTRE UNE VASTE PLAGE DE MOYENNE/HAUTE TROPOSPHA RE
D'AIR SEC DANS LE SUD-OUEST DE LA CIRCULATION. LE PRODUIT TPW DU
CIMSS CONFIRME LA PRESENCE D'AIR SEC S'ENROULANT PAR L'OUEST ET NORD
DU SYSTEME SANS AFFECTER POUR L'INSTANT LE COEUR DU SYSTEME.

LA DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SITUA E AU SUD DES MASCAREIGNES
DEVRAIT S'AFFAIBLIR EN SE DECALANT VERS L'EST TANDIS QUE LA DORSALE
LOCALISEE A L'EST DEVRAIT SE RENFORCER ET PRENDRE LA MAIN SUR LA
TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME. EN CONSEQUENCE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ADOPTER
UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS FRANCHE VERS LE SUD-OUEST EN ACCELERANT AVEC L'A
LE MAURICE ET LA RA UNION EN 1IERE LIGNE DE MIRE. BERGUITTA
CONTINUERA ENSUITE SA TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST AVANT DE
PLONGER PLUS FRANCHEMENT VERS LE SUD. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, LA
RECONSTRUCTION DES HAUTES PRESSIONS PLUS AU SUD DEVRAIT RALENTIR SA
PLONGEE, AVANT QUE LE SYSTEME BERGUITTA NE SOIT REPRIS DANS LA
CIRCULATION DES LATITUDES PLUS SUD.

LE SYSTEME SUBIT UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE DE NORD-EST SUR LA FACE
NORD-EST DE LA DORSALE PRECEDEMMENT MENTIONNEE. DANS LE MEME TEMPS,
LES MODELES NUMERIQUES MONTRENT QUE L'AIR SEC D'ORIGINE
STRATOSPHERIQUE DANS LE SUD-OUEST DE BERGUITTA DEVRAIT INTERFA RER
AVEC LE SYSTEME. POUR AUTANT, LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE DEVRAIT RESTER
BONNE AVEC NOTAMMENT UN CANAL D'EVACUATION POLAIRE EFFICACE. LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT DONC CONSERVER LE STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE
QUAND IL TRANSITERA AU PLUS PRES DE L'A LE MAURICE ET DE LA REUNION.
A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT DE NORD-OUEST
DEVRAIT S'ACCROITRE A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG D'ALTITUDE ET AFFAIBLIR
SIGNIFICATIVEMENT LE SYSTEME.

MALGRE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ENREGISTRE AU COURS DES 24 DERNIA RES
HEURES, BERGUITTA RESTE UN SYSTEME TRES DANGEREUX QUI EST PREVU SE
RAPPROCHER DE LA REUNION ET DE MAURICE EN MAINTENANT UNE INTENSITE
SIGNIFICATIVE. LEURS HABITANTS SONT DONC INVITES A SE TENIR
REGULIEREMENT AU COURANT DE LA SITUATION.=

2018-01-17 08:16

WTIO30 FMEE 170721

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/3/20172018
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/17 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 60.0 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 480 SW: 560 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 200 SW: 150 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/17 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 59.0 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/01/18 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 57.3 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/01/18 18 UTC: 21.9 S / 55.0 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/01/19 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 52.8 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/01/19 18 UTC: 25.1 S / 51.2 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/01/20 06 UTC: 27.3 S / 50.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/21 06 UTC: 32.2 S / 49.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/01/22 06 UTC: 33.7 S / 51.2 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0- CI=4.0+

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, BERGUITTA HAS SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF WEAKENING.
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS STRONG OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT BUT THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPOSED WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
VAPOR WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A WIDE AREA OF MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC DRY
AIR OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN OF THE CIRCULATION. TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS
CONFIRMS THAT LOW/MID LEVEL IS WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN CIRCULATION WITHOUT AFFECTS THE INTERN CORE OF THE SYSTEM.

THE WEAKENING MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM IS
FORECASTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD WHILE THE BUILDING RIDGE LOCATED AT EAST
SHOULD TAKE THE CONTROL OF THE TRAJECTORY. SO, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
ACCELERATE AND BEND SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD MAURICE ISLAND AND THEN
REUNION ISLAND. AFTER THE PASSAGE TO THE NEAREST OF THE ISLANDS,
BERGUITTA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD BEFORE TRACKING
SOUTHWARDS. LATER, HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER SOUTH SHOULD SLOW DOWN THE
MOVING OF BERGUITTA, AND NEXT THE SYSTEM BERGUITTA SHOULD FOLLOW THE
MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING A NORTHEASTERN WINDSHEAR OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE. MOREOVER, MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE DRY AIR LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN WITH A
STRATOSPHERIC ORIGIN SHOULD INTERFERE WITH THE SYSTEM. FOR ALL THAT,
THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN GOOD WITH AN
EFFICIENT POLERWARD CHANNEL. SO THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE
TROPICAL STATUS WHEN IT WILL TRANSIT NEAR THE MAURICIUS AND REUNION
ISLAND. FROM SATURDAY, NORTHWESTWARD VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS FORECASTED
TO INCREASE AHEAD AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY
BERGUITTA.

HOWEVER THE WEAKENING OF THE LAST 24 HOURS BERGUITTA REMAINS A VERY
DANGEROUS SYSTEM WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE CLOSER MAURICE AND REUNION
ISLANDS AT A SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY. INHABITANTS ARE INVITED TO
MONITOR CLOSELY THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE NEXT DAYS.=

2018-01-17 06:16

WTIO22 FMEE 170612
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/01/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 17/01/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA) 970 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 60.0 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 260 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/17 AT 18 UTC:
19.2 S / 59.0 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/18 AT 06 UTC:
20.7 S / 57.3 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-01-17 03:01

WTXS51 PGTW 170300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 180117014143
2018011700 06S BERGUITTA 018 01 225 03 SATL 060
T000 183S 0606E 080 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 155 SE QD
155 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 188S 0596E 075 R064 015 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 060 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 170 SE QD
195 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 198S 0581E 075 R064 015 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 070 SE QD 075 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 205 SE QD
205 SW QD 125 NW QD
T036 210S 0564E 075 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 085 SE QD 075 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 235 SE QD
205 SW QD 125 NW QD
T048 224S 0545E 070 R064 020 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 100 SE QD 075 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 240 SE QD
230 SW QD 125 NW QD
T072 261S 0514E 065 R064 035 NE QD 055 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
075 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 235 SE QD
200 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 309S 0505E 060 R050 080 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034
210 NE QD 235 SE QD 225 SW QD 155 NW QD
T120 338S 0534E 045 R034 205 NE QD 345 SE QD 285 SW QD 220 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 018
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 18.3S 60.6E

2018-01-17 03:01

WTXS51 PGTW 170300
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 180117014143
2018011700 06S BERGUITTA 018 01 225 03 SATL 060
T000 183S 0606E 080 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 155 SE QD 155 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 188S 0596E 075 R064 015 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 170 SE QD 195 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 198S 0581E 075 R064 015 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 070 SE QD 075 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 205 SE QD 205 SW QD 125 NW QD
T036 210S 0564E 075 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 085 SE QD 075 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 235 SE QD 205 SW QD 125 NW QD
T048 224S 0545E 070 R064 020 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 100 SE QD 075 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 240 SE QD 230 SW QD 125 NW QD
T072 261S 0514E 065 R064 035 NE QD 055 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 235 SE QD 200 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 309S 0505E 060 R050 080 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 235 SE QD 225 SW QD 155 NW QD
T120 338S 0534E 045 R034 205 NE QD 345 SE QD 285 SW QD 220 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 018
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 18.3S 60.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 60.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 18.8S 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 19.8S 58.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 21.0S 56.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 22.4S 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 26.1S 51.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 30.9S 50.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 33.8S 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
345 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 60.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 216 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.//
0618011100 130S 679E 15
0618011106 131S 683E 20
0618011112 137S 687E 30
0618011118 146S 690E 30
0618011200 153S 690E 30
0618011206 162S 685E 30
0618011212 168S 676E 30
0618011218 170S 669E 35
0618011300 174S 658E 35
0618011306 176S 651E 40
0618011312 181S 644E 40
0618011318 182S 638E 40
0618011400 182S 634E 50
0618011400 182S 634E 50
0618011406 182S 632E 55
0618011406 182S 632E 55
0618011412 181S 631E 55
0618011412 181S 631E 55
0618011418 180S 631E 55
0618011418 180S 631E 55
0618011500 178S 632E 65
0618011500 178S 632E 65
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011512 180S 630E 90
0618011512 180S 630E 90
0618011512 180S 630E 90
0618011518 180S 626E 100
0618011518 180S 626E 100
0618011518 180S 626E 100
0618011600 180S 621E 100
0618011600 180S 621E 100
0618011600 180S 621E 100
0618011606 180S 616E 95
0618011606 180S 616E 95
0618011606 180S 616E 95
0618011612 181S 612E 85
0618011612 181S 612E 85
0618011612 181S 612E 85
0618011618 181S 608E 80
0618011618 181S 608E 80
0618011618 181S 608E 80
0618011700 183S 606E 80
0618011700 183S 606E 80
0618011700 183S 606E 80

2018-01-17 03:01

WTXS31 PGTW 170300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 18.3S 60.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 60.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 18.8S 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-01-17 03:01

WTXS31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 18.3S 60.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 60.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 18.8S 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 19.8S 58.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 21.0S 56.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 22.4S 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 26.1S 51.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 30.9S 50.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 33.8S 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
345 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 60.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 216 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP AND PERSISTENT, NEARLY SYMMETRIC,
CONVECTION AROUND TC 06S. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A
162310Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A POORLY DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM PGTW,
KNES, AND FMEE AND A CI OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM FIMP. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL REMAINS PRESENT.
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP SHOWS DRY AIR IS CONTINUING TO
WRAP INTO TC 06S. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE (27 TO
28 DEGREES CELSIUS). TC 06S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE STR WILL CONTINUE TO STEER TC 06S SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72.
TC 06S WILL THEN TRACK SOUTHWARD BEFORE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
AFTER TAU 96 AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. TC 06S WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WRAP INTO
THE SYSTEM ALONG WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
170000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND
180300Z.//

2018-01-17 00:31

WTIO31 FMEE 170015

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/3/20172018
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 3 (BERGUITTA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 17/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 21 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.5 S / 60.2 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 968 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 560 SO: 560 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 50

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 17/01/2018 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 58.9 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 18/01/2018 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 57.3 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 18/01/2018 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 55.1 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 19/01/2018 00 UTC: 22.9 S / 53.1 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 19/01/2018 12 UTC: 24.3 S / 51.4 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 20/01/2018 00 UTC: 26.6 S / 50.3 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 21/01/2018 00 UTC: 31.8 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
120H: 22/01/2018 00 UTC: 32.5 S / 48.6 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=4.5 CI=4.5

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN CDO SE
MAINTIENT. L'INTRUSION D'AIR SEC QUI A EU LIEU AU COURS DES DERNIERES
12 HEURES NE PERMET PAS ENCORE DE RETROUVER UN OEIL. CELA LAISSE LA
CONVECTION PROFONDE LA PLUS ACTIVE DANS LA PARTIE NORD DE BERGUITTA,
L'INTENSITE RESTANT GLOBALEMENT STATIONNAIRE DEPUIS LES 6 DERNIERES
HEURES.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE, L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA
DORSALE SITUEE AU SUD DE BERGUITTA CONTINUE D'IMPOSER UNE ORIENTATION
VERS LE SUD-OUEST. CETTE TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT ALORS AMENER LE CENTRE
DE BERGUITTA A TRANSITER A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DE MAURICE EN DEBUT DE
SOIREE DE MERCREDI ET DE LA REUNION PRES DE 12 HEURES PLUS TARD. AVEC
UN IMPACT DIRECT OU A DES DISTANCES TRES REDUITES DES COTES, LE SUIVI
DU CENTRE SERA PROBABLEMENT PERTURBE PAR LES EFFETS OROGRAPHIQUES,
PRINCIPALEMENT SUR LA REUNION. MEME SI LE RELIEF DES ILES POURRAIT
AFFAIBLIR TEMPORAIREMENT LE METEORE, DES EFFETS LOCAUX D'ACCELERATION
DU VENT SONT ATTENDUS AU PASSAGE AU PLUS PRES DES COTES. BERGUITTA
CONTINUERA ENSUITE SA TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST AVANT DE
PLONGER PLUS FRANCHEMENT VERS LE SUD. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, LA
RECONSTRUCTION DES HAUTES PRESSIONS PLUS AU SUD DEVRAIT RALENTIR SA
PLONGEE SUIVANT LE SCENARIO DU MODELE IFS, AVANT QUE LE SYSTEME
BERGUITTA NE SOIT REPRIS DANS LA CIRCULATION DES LATITUDES PLUS SUD.

LES DONNEES DU MODELE OCEANIQUE DE MERCATOR-OCEAN PERMET D'ESTIMER
QUE LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE RESTE SUFFISANT AU NORD DU 21S MAIS
COMMENCE A MANQUER UNE FOIS PASSE LE 22S. AJOUTER A UNE CONTRAINTE DE
NORD-EST DEFAVORABLE QUI SE MAINTIENT VOIRE SE RENFORCE EN FIN
D'ECHEANCE, LE SYSTEME EST PREVU S'AFFAIBLIR TRES LENTEMENT JUSQU'A
VENDREDI, MALGRE UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE COTE POLAIRE. DIRECTEMENT
ASSOCIE AU SYSTEME, LE TEMPS COMMENCERA A SE DEGRADER SUR MAURICE EN
COURS DE CETTE MATINEE, ET IL FAUT ATTENDRE LA NUIT DE MERCREDI A
JEUDI POUR QU'IL ATTEIGNE LA REUNION, BIEN QUE LES PLUIES SERONT
PRESENTES BIEN PLUS TOT.

MALGRE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ENREGISTRE AU COURS DES 24 DERNIA RES
HEURES, BERGUITTA RESTE UN SYSTEME TRES DANGEREUX QUI EST PREVU SE
RAPPROCHER DE LA REUNION ET DE MAURICE EN MAINTENANT UNE INTENSITE
SIGNIFICATIVE. LEURS HABITANTS SONT DONC INVITES A SE TENIR
REGULIEREMENT AU COURANT DE LA SITUATION.=

2018-01-17 00:31

WTIO30 FMEE 170015

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/3/20172018
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BERGUITTA)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/17 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5 S / 60.2 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL TWO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 968 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 560 SW: 560 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 200 SW: 200 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/17 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 58.9 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/01/18 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 57.3 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/01/18 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 55.1 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/01/19 00 UTC: 22.9 S / 53.1 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/01/19 12 UTC: 24.3 S / 51.4 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/01/20 00 UTC: 26.6 S / 50.3 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/21 00 UTC: 31.8 S / 48.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/01/22 00 UTC: 32.5 S / 48.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5 CI=4.5

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, THE CDO PATTERN MAINTAIN. THE INTRUSION OF
DRY AIR THAT HAS TAKEN DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS DOES NOT ALLOW THE
RECURRENCE OF AN EYE. THE DEEP CONVECTION ARE MORE ACTIVE IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF BERGUITTA, THE INTENSITY REMAINS GLOBALLY STATIONARY
SINCE THE LAST 6 HOURS.

NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK, THE WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE SITUATED SOUTH OF
BERGUITTA CONTINUE TO IMPOSES A TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD. SO THE CENTER OF
BERGUITTA TRANSIT IN THE IMMEDIATE PROXIMITY OF MAURITIUS IN THE
EARLY EVENING OF WEDNESDAY AND OF THE REUNION ISLAND TO 12 HOURS
LATER. WITH DIRECT IMPACT OR VERY REDUCED DISTANCES FROM THE ISLAND,
MONITORING THE CENTER WILL BE LIKELY DISTURBED BY OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS.
ALTHOUGH THE RELIEF OF THE ISLANDS COULD TEMPORARILY WEAKEN THE
CYCLONE, LOCAL ACCELERATION EFFECTS OF THE WIND ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE PASSAGE NEAREST OF THE COASTS. AFTER THE PASSAGE TO THE NEAREST
OF THE ISLANDS, BERGUITTA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD BEFORE
TRACKING SOUTHWARDS. LATER, HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER SOUTH SHOULD SLOW
DOWN THE MOVING OF BERGUITTA, IF WE FOLLOW THE IFS MODEL SCENARIO,
AND NEXT THE SYSTEM BERGUITTA SHOULD FOLLOW THE MID-LATITUDE
CIRCULATION.

INFORMATIONS FROM THE OCEANIC MODEL OF MERCATOR-OCEAN ALLOWS THE
OCEANIC POTENTIAL TO REMAIN SUFFICIENT NORTH OF THE 21S BUT STARTS TO
MISS SOUTH OF 22S. ADDING TO A MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR FORECAST TO INCREASE END OF THE PERIOD, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN VERY SLOWLY UNTIL FRIDAY, DESPITE A GOOD POLAR
OUTFLOW CHANNEL. DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE, WEATHER WILL
BEGIN TO DEGRADE OVER MAURITIUS DURING THIS MORNING, AND AFTER DURING
THE NIGHT BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, IT REACH REUNION ISLAND,
ALTHOUGH THE RAINFALL WILL BE PRESENT EARLIER.

HOWEVER THE WEAKENING OF THE LAST 24 HOURS BERGUITTA REMAIN A VERY
DANGEROUS SYSTEM WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE CLOSER MAURICE AND REUNION
ISLANDS AT A SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY. INHABITANTS ARE INVITED TO
MONITOR CLOSELY THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE NEXT DAYS.=

2018-01-17 00:16

WTIO20 FMEE 170001
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/01/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 17/01/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BERGUITTA) 968 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5 S / 60.2 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
150 MN IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/17 AT 12 UTC:
19.0 S / 59.4 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/01/18 AT 00 UTC:
20.1 S / 58.3 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-01-16 21:16

WTXS31 PGTW 162100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 18.2S 60.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 60.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 18.8S 59.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-01-16 21:16

WTXS31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 18.2S 60.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 60.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 18.8S 59.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 19.6S 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 20.8S 56.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 22.1S 54.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 25.2S 51.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 29.7S 49.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 34.0S 51.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 60.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 229 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP AND PERSISTENT
CONVECTION AROUND TC 06S, ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 161734Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWING THAT THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
80 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES
OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM KNES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP SHOWS SOME DRY AIR IS BEGINNING TO WRAP
INTO TC 06S. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE (27 TO 28
DEGREES CELSIUS). TC 06S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE STR WILL
CONTINUE TO STEER TC 06S GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 96. TC
06S WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 96 AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE STR. TC 06S WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS DRY
AIR CONTINUES TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM ALONG WITH INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.//

2018-01-16 20:46

WTXS51 PGTW 162100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 180116200431
2018011618 06S BERGUITTA 017 01 255 04 SATL 060
T000 182S 0608E 080 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 205 SE QD
210 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 188S 0598E 075 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 225 SE QD
235 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 196S 0584E 075 R064 015 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 085 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 240 SE QD
235 SW QD 115 NW QD
T036 208S 0565E 075 R064 015 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 220 SE QD
200 SW QD 115 NW QD
T048 221S 0546E 070 R064 020 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 085 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 215 SE QD
200 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 252S 0514E 065 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 195 SE QD
175 SW QD 095 NW QD
T096 297S 0498E 060 R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
160 NE QD 190 SE QD 170 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 340S 0514E 045 R034 170 NE QD 240 SE QD 210 SW QD 145 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 017
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 18.2S 60.8E

2018-01-16 20:46

WTXS51 PGTW 162100
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 180116200431
2018011618 06S BERGUITTA 017 01 255 04 SATL 060
T000 182S 0608E 080 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 205 SE QD 210 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 188S 0598E 075 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 225 SE QD 235 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 196S 0584E 075 R064 015 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 085 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 240 SE QD 235 SW QD 115 NW QD
T036 208S 0565E 075 R064 015 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 220 SE QD 200 SW QD 115 NW QD
T048 221S 0546E 070 R064 020 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 085 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 215 SE QD 200 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 252S 0514E 065 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 195 SE QD 175 SW QD 095 NW QD
T096 297S 0498E 060 R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 190 SE QD 170 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 340S 0514E 045 R034 170 NE QD 240 SE QD 210 SW QD 145 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 017
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 18.2S 60.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 60.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 18.8S 59.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 19.6S 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 20.8S 56.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 22.1S 54.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 25.2S 51.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 29.7S 49.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 34.0S 51.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 60.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 229 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.//
0618011100 130S 679E 15
0618011106 131S 683E 20
0618011112 137S 687E 30
0618011118 146S 690E 30
0618011200 153S 690E 30
0618011206 162S 685E 30
0618011212 168S 676E 30
0618011218 170S 669E 35
0618011300 174S 658E 35
0618011306 176S 651E 40
0618011312 181S 644E 40
0618011318 182S 638E 40
0618011400 182S 634E 50
0618011400 182S 634E 50
0618011406 182S 632E 55
0618011406 182S 632E 55
0618011412 181S 631E 55
0618011412 181S 631E 55
0618011418 180S 631E 55
0618011418 180S 631E 55
0618011500 178S 632E 65
0618011500 178S 632E 65
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011512 180S 630E 90
0618011512 180S 630E 90
0618011512 180S 630E 90
0618011518 180S 626E 100
0618011518 180S 626E 100
0618011518 180S 626E 100
0618011600 180S 621E 100
0618011600 180S 621E 100
0618011600 180S 621E 100
0618011606 180S 616E 95
0618011606 180S 616E 95
0618011606 180S 616E 95
0618011612 181S 612E 85
0618011612 181S 612E 85
0618011612 181S 612E 85
0618011618 182S 608E 80
0618011618 182S 608E 80
0618011618 182S 608E 80

2018-01-16 19:01

WTIO31 FMEE 161829

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/3/20172018
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 3 (BERGUITTA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 16/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 21 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.3 S / 60.7 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 965 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 560 SO: 560 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 240 SO: 240 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SO: 90 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 50

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 17/01/2018 06 UTC: 19.0 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 17/01/2018 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 18/01/2018 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 56.1 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 18/01/2018 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 19/01/2018 06 UTC: 23.6 S / 52.3 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 19/01/2018 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 51.0 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/01/2018 18 UTC: 30.7 S / 48.9 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
120H: 21/01/2018 18 UTC: 32.5 S / 47.6 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=4.5 CI=4.5

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION AUTOUR DU CENTRE DE
BERGUITTA EST PLUS DISSYMETRIQUE ET FLUCTUANTE. LA CONFIGURATION EN
OEIL N'APPARAIT PLUS, PRINCIPALEMENT PAR L'INTRUSION D'AIR SEC QUI
S'ENROULE ET PENETRE PAR LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD DE LA CIRCULATION. CELA
LAISSE LA CONVECTION PROFONDE LA PLUS ACTIVE DANS LA PARTIE NORD DE
BERGUITTA SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES INFRAROUGES. L'INTENSITE RESTE
GLOBALEMENT STATIONNAIRE DEPUIS LES 6 DERNIERES HEURES.

L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA DORSALE SITUEE AU SUD DE BERGUITTA IMPOSE
MAINTENANT UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST. CETTE TRAJECTOIRE
DEVRAIT ALORS AMENER LE CENTRE DE BERGUITTA A TRANSITER A PROXIMITE
IMMEDIATE DE MAURICE EN DEBUT DE SOIREE DE MERCREDI ET DE LA REUNION
PRES DE 12 HEURES PLUS TARD. AVEC UN IMPACT DIRECT OU A DES DISTANCES
TRES REDUITES DES COTES, LE SUIVI DU CENTRE SERA PROBABLEMENT
PERTURBE PAR LES EFFETS OROGRAPHIQUES. MEME SI LE RELIEF DES ILES
POURRAIT AFFAIBLIR TEMPORAIREMENT LE METEORE, DES EFFETS LOCAUX
D'ACCELERATION DU VENT SONT ATTENDUS AU PASSAGE AU PLUS PRES DES
COTES. APRES LE PASSAGE AU PLUS PRES DES ILES, BERGUITTA CONTINUERA
SA TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST AVANT DE PLONGER PLUS
FRANCHEMENT VERS LE SUD. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, LA RECONSTRUCTION DES
HAUTES PRESSIONS PLUS AU SUD DEVRAIT RALENTIR SA PLONGEE SUIVANT LE
SCENARIO DU MODELE IFS.

LES DONNEES DU MODELE OCEANIQUE DE MERCATOR-OCEAN PERMET D'ESTIMER
QUE LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE RESTE SUFFISANT AU NORD DU 21S MAIS
COMMENCE A MANQUER UNE FOIS PASSE LE 22S. AJOUTER A UNE CONTRAINTE DE
NORD-EST DEFAVORABLE QUI SE MAINTIENT VOIRE SE RENFORCE EN FIN
D'ECHEANCE, LE SYSTEME EST PREVU S'AFFAIBLIR TRES LENTEMENT JUSQU'A
VENDREDI, MALGRE UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE COTE POLAIRE.

MALGRE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ENREGISTRE AU COURS DES 12 DERNIA RES
HEURES, BERGUITTA RESTE UN SYSTEME TRES DANGEREUX QUI EST PREVU SE
RAPPROCHER DE LA REUNION ET DE MAURICE EN MAINTENANT UNE INTENSITE
SIGNIFICATIVE. LEURS HABITANTS SONT DONC INVITES A SE TENIR
REGULIEREMENT AU COURANT DE LA SITUATION.=

2018-01-16 19:01

WTIO30 FMEE 161829

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/3/20172018
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BERGUITTA)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/16 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.3 S / 60.7 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 965 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 560 SW: 560 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 90 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/17 06 UTC: 19.0 S / 59.4 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/01/17 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 58.3 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/01/18 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 56.1 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/01/18 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 53.9 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/01/19 06 UTC: 23.6 S / 52.3 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/01/19 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 51.0 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/20 18 UTC: 30.7 S / 48.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/01/21 18 UTC: 32.5 S / 47.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5 CI=4.5

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, THE CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER OF
BERGUITTA IS MORE DISSYMETRIC AND FLUCTUATING. THE EYE CONFIGURATION
CLOUD DON'T APPEAR, MAINLY BY THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR THAT WRAPS AND
PENETRE BY THE SEMI-CIRCLE SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION. THE DEEP
CONVECTION ARE MORE ACTIVE IN THE NORTHERN PART OF BERGUITTA ON THE
LATEST INFRARED DATA. THE INTENSITY REMAINS GLOBALLY STATIONARY SINCE
THE LAST 6 HOURS.

THE WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE SITUATED SOUTH OF BERGUITTA NOW IMPOSES A
TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD. SO THE CENTER OF BERGUITTA TRANSIT IN THE
IMMEDIATE PROXIMITY OF MAURITIUS IN THE EARLY EVENING OF WEDNESDAY
AND OF THE REUNION ISLAND TO 12 HOURS LATER. WITH DIRECT IMPACT OR
VERY REDUCED DISTANCES FROM THE ISLAND, MONITORING THE CENTER WILL BE
LIKELY DISTURBED BY OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. ALTHOUGH THE RELIEF OF THE
ISLANDS COULD TEMPORARILY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE, LOCAL ACCELERATION
EFFECTS OF THE WIND ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PASSAGE NEAREST OF THE
COASTS. AFTER THE PASSAGE TO THE NEAREST OF THE ISLANDS, BERGUITTA
WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD BEFORE TRACKING SOUTHWARDS.
LATER, HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER SOUTH SHOULD SLOW DOWN THE MOVING OF
BERGUITTA, IF WE FOLLOW THE IFS MODEL SCENARIO.

INFORMATIONS FROM THE OCEANIC MODEL OF MERCATOR-OCEAN ALLOWS THE
OCEANIC POTENTIAL TO REMAIN SUFFICIENT NORTH OF THE 21S BUT STARTS TO
MISS SOUTH OF 22S. ADDING TO A MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR FORECAST TO INCREASE END OF THE PERIOD, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN VERY SLOWLY UNTIL FRIDAY, DESPITE A GOOD POLAR
OUTFLOW CHANNEL.

HOWEVER THE WEAKENING OF THE LAST 12 HOURS BERGUITTA REMAIN A VERY
DANGEROUS SYSTEM WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE CLOSER MAURICE AND REUNION
ISLANDS AT A SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY. INHABITANTS ARE INVITED TO
MONITOR CLOSELY THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE NEXT DAYS.=

2018-01-16 18:31

WTIO20 FMEE 161824
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/01/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 16/01/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BERGUITTA) 965 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.3 S / 60.7 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
250 MN IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/17 AT 06 UTC:
19.0 S / 59.4 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/01/17 AT 18 UTC:
20.1 S / 58.3 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-01-16 18:16

WTIO20 FMEE 161804
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/01/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 16/01/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BERGUITTA) 965 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.3 S / 60.7 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
250 MN IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/17 AT 06 UTC:
19.0 S / 59.4 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/01/17 AT 18 UTC:
20.1 S / 58.3 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-01-16 14:31

WTXS51 PGTW 161500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 180116131313
2018011612 06S BERGUITTA 016 01 245 05 SATL 025
T000 182S 0611E 085 R064 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 095 SE QD 060 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 170 SE QD
115 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 187S 0602E 085 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 085 SE QD 075 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 270 SE QD
250 SW QD 115 NW QD
T024 194S 0590E 085 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 265 SE QD
250 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 204S 0575E 085 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 255 SE QD
235 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 218S 0552E 085 R064 015 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
035 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 230 SE QD
245 SW QD 135 NW QD
T072 245S 0519E 075 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 085 SE QD 075 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 220 SE QD
205 SW QD 115 NW QD
T096 290S 0501E 060 R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
200 NE QD 215 SE QD 205 SW QD 145 NW QD
T120 337S 0512E 045 R034 225 NE QD 255 SE QD 205 SW QD 185 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 18.2S 61.1E

2018-01-16 14:31

WTXS51 PGTW 161500
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 180116131313
2018011612 06S BERGUITTA 016 01 245 05 SATL 025
T000 182S 0611E 085 R064 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 095 SE QD 060 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 170 SE QD 115 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 187S 0602E 085 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 085 SE QD 075 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 270 SE QD 250 SW QD 115 NW QD
T024 194S 0590E 085 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 265 SE QD 250 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 204S 0575E 085 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 255 SE QD 235 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 218S 0552E 085 R064 015 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 230 SE QD 245 SW QD 135 NW QD
T072 245S 0519E 075 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 085 SE QD 075 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 220 SE QD 205 SW QD 115 NW QD
T096 290S 0501E 060 R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 215 SE QD 205 SW QD 145 NW QD
T120 337S 0512E 045 R034 225 NE QD 255 SE QD 205 SW QD 185 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 18.2S 61.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 61.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 18.7S 60.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.4S 59.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 20.4S 57.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 21.8S 55.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 24.5S 51.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 29.0S 50.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 33.7S 51.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 60.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 244 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z.
//
0618011100 130S 679E 15
0618011106 131S 683E 20
0618011112 137S 687E 30
0618011118 146S 690E 30
0618011200 153S 690E 30
0618011206 162S 685E 30
0618011212 168S 676E 30
0618011218 170S 669E 35
0618011300 174S 658E 35
0618011306 176S 651E 40
0618011312 181S 644E 40
0618011318 182S 638E 40
0618011400 182S 634E 50
0618011400 182S 634E 50
0618011406 182S 632E 55
0618011406 182S 632E 55
0618011412 181S 631E 55
0618011412 181S 631E 55
0618011418 180S 631E 55
0618011418 180S 631E 55
0618011500 178S 632E 65
0618011500 178S 632E 65
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011512 180S 630E 90
0618011512 180S 630E 90
0618011512 180S 630E 90
0618011518 180S 626E 100
0618011518 180S 626E 100
0618011518 180S 626E 100
0618011600 180S 621E 100
0618011600 180S 621E 100
0618011600 180S 621E 100
0618011606 180S 616E 95
0618011606 180S 616E 95
0618011606 180S 616E 95
0618011612 182S 611E 85
0618011612 182S 611E 85
0618011612 182S 611E 85

2018-01-16 14:31

WTXS31 PGTW 161500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 18.2S 61.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 61.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 18.7S 60.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-01-16 14:31

WTXS31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 18.2S 61.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 61.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 18.7S 60.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.4S 59.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 20.4S 57.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 21.8S 55.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 24.5S 51.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 29.0S 50.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 33.7S 51.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 60.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 244 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DENSE OVERCAST CLOUDS
OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH SPIRAL BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 161157Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS THE
SYSTEM SEVERELY WEAKENED ON THE EASTERN EDGE WITH DEEP CONVECTION
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGE AND SATELLITE FIXES.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 85 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON
MULTIAGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.5 TO
T5.0 AND A 160503Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 85 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS A WEAK POINT SOURCE POSITIONED OVER THE SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER
POINT SOURCE OFFSET TO THE NORTHEAST. EASTERLY WINDS FROM THE
SECONDARY POINT SOURCE ARE BEGINNING TO INFLUENCE OUTFLOW ON THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN EDGES OF TC 06S, BUT NOT TO A SIGNIFICANT
DEGREE. THIS INTERACTION WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS
KEEPING OUTFLOW SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE WARM (28 CELSIUS), AND COMBINED
WITH OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS WILL MAINTAIN TC 06S AT AN
INTENSITY OF APPROXIMATELY 85 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. TC 06S
HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN BOUNDARY OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE RIDGE WILL STEER TC 06S ON A COURSE WEST-SOUTHWEST
THROUGH TAU 72 THEN SHIFT TO A TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD BY TAU 120 AS IT
ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72 AS TC 06S TRACKS BELOW
25 DEGREES SOUTH, SSTS BEGIN TO DROP CONSIDERABLY AND THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. AROUND TAU 96 TC 06S WILL BEGIN INTERACTING
WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND FULLY TRANSITION INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
CONTINUING TO SHOWING IMPROVEMENT IN THE TRACK UNCERTAINTY, WITH ALL
MEMBERS OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS CLOSELY GROUPED TOGETHER
THROUGH TAU 48. OVERALL THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z.//

2018-01-16 12:46

WTIO31 FMEE 161212

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/3/20172018
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 3 (BERGUITTA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 16/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.2 S / 61.1 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE UN DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.5/5.0/W 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 963 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 560 SO: 560 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 240 SO: 240 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SO: 90 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 50

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 17/01/2018 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 60.2 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 17/01/2018 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 59.0 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 18/01/2018 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 57.3 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 18/01/2018 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 54.9 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 19/01/2018 00 UTC: 22.9 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 19/01/2018 12 UTC: 24.3 S / 51.2 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/01/2018 12 UTC: 29.8 S / 49.2 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
120H: 21/01/2018 12 UTC: 32.5 S / 48.2 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=4.5 CI=5.0-

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE BERGUITTA
S'EST CONFIRME DANS LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE. NOTAMMENT AVEC UN OEIL
CHAUD N'APPAISSANT QUE RAREMENT AU SEIN D'UN CDO ENCORE FROID.
LES DERNIERES DONNA ES MICRO-ONDES DISPONIBLES DU GMI DE 0536Z SEMBLE
SUGGERER LA DESTRUCTION DE LA CONVECTION PROFONDE DANS LE QUADRANT
SUD-EST DU SYSTEME. CE CHANGEMENT EST A PRIORI DU A LA PRESENCE DE
CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-EST ASSOCIA A LA PRESENCE D'AIR SEC DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE NORD DE LA CIRCULATION.

UNE CELLULE DE HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE AU
SUD INDUIT UN FLUX DIRECTEUR ORIENTE VERS L'OUEST. A PARTIR DE
MERCREDI, LE SYSTEME VA ADOPTER PROGRESSIVEMENT UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS
LE SUD-OUEST EN RAISON DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA DORSALE. IL DEVRAIT
ALORS TRANSITER A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DES PRINCIPALES ILES DES
MASCAREIGNES (MAURICE ET LA REUNION). LE TIMING RESTE ENCORE
INCERTAIN SUR CE TRAJET AVEC DES DIFFERENCES NOTABLES ENTRE LES
MODELES DETERMINISTES MAJEURS. LA PRESENTE PREVISION EST BASE
PRINCIPALEMENT SUR UN CONSENSUS DES DERNIERS RESEAUX DES MODELES GFS
ET IFS.

LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE RESTE CONSA QUENT, MAIS LES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT MITIGA ES ENTRE UNE CONTRAINTE DE NORD-EST
DEFAVORABLE QUI SE MAINTIENT VOIRE SE RENFORCE EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, ET
UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE COTE POLAIRE. EN CONSEQUENCE, LE SYSTEME
EST PREVU S'AFFAIBIR TRES LENTEMENT JUSQU'A VENDREDI, PUIS PLUS
FRANCHEMENT AU DELA, LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE DEVENANT ALORS LE FACTEUR
LIMITANT NOTAMMENT AU SUD DE 25S.

MALGRE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ENREGISTRE CES DERNIERES HEURES, BERGUITTA
RESTE UN SYSTEME TRES DANGEREUX QUI EST PREVU SE RAPPROCHER DE LA
REUNION ET DE MAURICE EN MAINTENANT UNE INTENSITE SIGNIFICATIVE.
LEURS HABITANTS SONT DONC INVITES A SE TENIR REGULIEREMENT AU COURANT
DE LA SITUATION.=

2018-01-16 12:46

WTIO30 FMEE 161212

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/3/20172018
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BERGUITTA)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/16 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 61.1 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL ONE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 963 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 560 SW: 560 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 90 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/17 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 60.2 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/01/17 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 59.0 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/01/18 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 57.3 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/01/18 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 54.9 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/01/19 00 UTC: 22.9 S / 53.0 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/01/19 12 UTC: 24.3 S / 51.2 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/20 12 UTC: 29.8 S / 49.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/01/21 12 UTC: 32.5 S / 48.2 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5 CI=5.0-

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS , THE WEAKENING OF BERGUITTA IS CONFIRMED BY
THE CLOUD STRUCTURE. NOTABLY WITH A WARM EYE APPEARING TIME TO TIME
INTO A CDO ALREADY COLD.
THE LAST MICRO-WAVES DATA GMI OF 05H36Z WHICH SUGGESTS A WEAKNESS IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE CHANGE IS DUE TO
THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE EASTERN UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT ASSOCIATED WITH
DRY AIR IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

THE MID-TROPOSPHERE HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL CELL LOCATED SOUTH GENERATE A
WESTERWARD STEERING FLOW. FROM WEDNESDAY, WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE
RIDGE, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEND PROGRESSIVELY SOUTHWESTWARD. IT IS
EXPECTED THEN, TO MOVE NEARBY THE MAIN MASCARENES ISLANDS (REUNION
AND MAURICE). TIMING IS STILL UNCLEAR WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
(AROUND SIX HOURS) BETWEEN MAJOR NUMERICAL MODELS. THIS TRACK
FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE LAST RUNS OF GFS AND
IFS.

THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL REMAINS GOOD, BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE BECOMING MITIGATED BETWEEN MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR FORECAST TO INCREASE END OF THE PERIOD AND A GOOD POLAR
OUTFLOW CHANNEL.THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM IS EXPETED TO WEAKEN VERY
SLOWLY UNTIL FRIDAY THEN MORE FRANKLY, AS THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL WOULD
BE BY THAT TIME, THE LIMITING FACTOR, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF 25S.


HOWEVER THE WEAKENING OF THE LAST HOURS BERGUITTA REMAIN A VERY
DANGEROUS SYSTEM WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE CLOSER MAURICE AND REUNION
ISLANDS AT A SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY. INHABITANTS ARE INVITED TO
MONITOR CLOSELY THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE NEXT DAYS.=

2018-01-16 12:16

WTIO20 FMEE 161210
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/01/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 16/01/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BERGUITTA) 963 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 61.1 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/17 AT 00 UTC:
18.6 S / 60.2 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/01/17 AT 12 UTC:
19.4 S / 59.0 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-01-16 09:01

WTXS51 PGTW 160900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 180116074836
2018011606 06S BERGUITTA 015 01 270 05 SATL 025
T000 180S 0616E 095 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 120 SE QD
115 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 183S 0607E 090 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 255 SE QD
225 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 190S 0595E 085 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 255 SE QD
225 SW QD 115 NW QD
T036 199S 0580E 080 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 255 SE QD
210 SW QD 125 NW QD
T048 211S 0562E 075 R064 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 085 SE QD 085 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 230 SE QD
210 SW QD 125 NW QD
T072 238S 0530E 065 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 195 SE QD
195 SW QD 105 NW QD
T096 279S 0505E 055 R050 065 NE QD 075 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R034
165 NE QD 185 SE QD 160 SW QD 105 NW QD
T120 325S 0511E 045 R034 200 NE QD 230 SE QD 210 SW QD 180 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 18.0S 61.6E

2018-01-16 09:01

WTXS51 PGTW 160900
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 180116074836
2018011606 06S BERGUITTA 015 01 270 05 SATL 025
T000 180S 0616E 095 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 120 SE QD 115 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 183S 0607E 090 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 255 SE QD 225 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 190S 0595E 085 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 255 SE QD 225 SW QD 115 NW QD
T036 199S 0580E 080 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 255 SE QD 210 SW QD 125 NW QD
T048 211S 0562E 075 R064 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 085 SE QD 085 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 230 SE QD 210 SW QD 125 NW QD
T072 238S 0530E 065 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 195 SE QD 195 SW QD 105 NW QD
T096 279S 0505E 055 R050 065 NE QD 075 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 185 SE QD 160 SW QD 105 NW QD
T120 325S 0511E 045 R034 200 NE QD 230 SE QD 210 SW QD 180 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 18.0S 61.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 61.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.3S 60.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 19.0S 59.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 19.9S 58.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 21.1S 56.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 23.8S 53.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 27.9S 50.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 32.5S 51.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 61.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 274 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z.
//
0618011100 130S 679E 15
0618011106 131S 683E 20
0618011112 137S 687E 30
0618011118 146S 690E 30
0618011200 153S 690E 30
0618011206 162S 685E 30
0618011212 168S 676E 30
0618011218 170S 669E 35
0618011300 174S 658E 35
0618011306 176S 651E 40
0618011312 181S 644E 40
0618011318 182S 638E 40
0618011400 182S 634E 50
0618011400 182S 634E 50
0618011406 182S 632E 55
0618011406 182S 632E 55
0618011412 181S 631E 55
0618011412 181S 631E 55
0618011418 180S 631E 55
0618011418 180S 631E 55
0618011500 178S 632E 65
0618011500 178S 632E 65
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011512 180S 630E 90
0618011512 180S 630E 90
0618011512 180S 630E 90
0618011518 180S 626E 100
0618011518 180S 626E 100
0618011518 180S 626E 100
0618011600 180S 621E 100
0618011600 180S 621E 100
0618011600 180S 621E 100
0618011606 180S 616E 95
0618011606 180S 616E 95
0618011606 180S 616E 95

2018-01-16 09:01

WTXS31 PGTW 160900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 18.0S 61.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 61.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.3S 60.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-01-16 09:01

WTXS31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 18.0S 61.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 61.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.3S 60.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 19.0S 59.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 19.9S 58.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 21.1S 56.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 23.8S 53.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 27.9S 50.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 32.5S 51.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 61.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 274 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A TIGHTLY WOUND CYCLONE WITH A CLOUD FILLED RAGGED
EYE FEATURE. A 160504Z 89GHZ AMSU IMAGE SHOWS THE STRUCTURE WEAKENED
ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY AND THE DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
BASED ON THE MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 95 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON MULTIAGENCY CURRENT
INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.0 TO T5.5 AND A 160249Z
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 97 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK POINT
SOURCE POSITIONED OVER THE SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER POINT SOURCE OFFSET
TO THE NORTHEAST. EASTERLY WINDS FROM THE SECONDARY POINT SOURCE ARE
BEGINNING TO INFLUENCE OUTFLOW ON THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN EDGES OF
TC 06S, BUT NOT TO A SIGNIFICANT DEGREE. HOWEVER, THIS INTERACTION
WILL BECOME MORE APPARENT IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS OUTFLOW IS
FURTHER RESTRICTED AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES, CAUSING TC 06S
TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE WARM (28 CELSIUS), AND
CONDUCIVE TO SUPPORT TC STRENGTH WINDS FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. BELOW
APPROXIMATELY 25 DEGREES SOUTH SSTS BEGIN TO DROP CONSIDERABLY. TC
06S HAS TRACKED WESTWARD OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS UNDER A COMPETING
STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH RIDGES TO BOTH THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST
OF THE SYSTEM. THE SOUTHWESTERN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND
SHIFT EASTWARD IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, MERGING WITH THE
SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE. THE NEW RIDGE PATTERN WILL STEER TC 06S ON A
COURSE WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH TAU 72 THEN SHIFT TO A TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD BY TAU 120 AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS. AROUND TAU 96
TC 06S WILL BEGIN INTERACTING WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH AND FULLY TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 120.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING IMPROVEMENT IN THE TRACK
UNCERTAINTY WITH ECMWF, GFS, JGSM, AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
ALL CLOSELY GROUPED TOGETHER THROUGH TAU 48 WITH A TRACK IMPACTING
BOTH MAURITIUS AND LA REUNION. THE FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED TOWARD
THESE SOLUTIONS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z,
170300Z AND 170900Z.//

2018-01-16 07:31

WTIO31 FMEE 160726

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/3/20172018
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 3 (BERGUITTA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 16/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.1 S / 61.5 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE UN DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.5/5.0/W 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 955 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 560 SO: 560 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 240 SO: 240 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SO: 90 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 50

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 16/01/2018 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 17/01/2018 06 UTC: 19.0 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 17/01/2018 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 18/01/2018 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 56.1 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 18/01/2018 18 UTC: 22.4 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 19/01/2018 06 UTC: 23.6 S / 52.2 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/01/2018 06 UTC: 28.1 S / 50.0 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
120H: 21/01/2018 06 UTC: 34.2 S / 50.1 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=4.5+ CI=5.0

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE
BERGUITTA S'EST DEGRADE, AVEC NOTAMMENT LA DISPARITION TEMPORAIRE DE
L'OEIL. CELUI-CI SEMBLE SE REFORMER SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES
SATELLITES. CETTE AFFAIBLISSEMENT EST CONFIRME PAR LES DONNA ES
MICRO-ONDES SSMIS DE 0146Z QUI MONTRE LA DESTRUCTION DE LA CONVECTION
PROFONDE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST DU SYSTEME. CE CHANGEMENT EST A
PRIORI DU A UNE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-EST ASSOCIA A LA
PRESENCE D'AIR SEC DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-OUEST DE LA CIRCULATION.

UNE CELLULE DE HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE AU
SUD INDUIT UN FLUX DIRECTEUR ORIENTE VERS L'OUEST. A PARTIR DE
MERCREDI, LE SYSTEME VA ADOPTER PROGRESSIVEMENT UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS
LE SUD-OUEST EN RAISON DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA DORSALE. IL DEVRAIT
ALORS TRANSITER A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DES PRINCIPALES ILES DES
MASCAREIGNES (MAURICE ET LA REUNION). LE TIMING RESTE ENCORE
INCERTAIN SUR CE TRAJET AVEC DES DIFFERENCES NOTABLES (DE L'ORDRE DE
SIX HEURES) ENTRE LES MODELES DETERMINISTES MAJEURS. LA PRESENTE
PREVISION EST BASE PRINCIPALEMENT SUR UN CONSENSUS DES DERNIERS
RESEAUX DES MODELES GFS ET IFS.

LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE RESTE CONSA QUENT, MAIS LES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT MITIGA ES ENTRE UNE CONTRAINTE DE NORD-EST
DEFAVORABLE QUI SE MAINTIENT VOIRE SE RENFORCE EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, ET
UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE COTE POLAIRE. EN CONSEQUENCE, LE SYSTEME
EST PREVU S'AFFAIBIR TRES LENTEMENT JUSQU'A VENDREDI, PUIS PLUS
FRANCHEMENT AU DELA, LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE DEVENANT ALORS LE FACTEUR
LIMITANT NOTAMMENT AU SUD DE 25S.

MALGRE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ENREGISTRE CES DERNIERES HEURES, BERGUITTA
RESTE UN SYSTEME TRES DANGEREUX QUI EST PREVU SE RAPPROCHER DE LA
REUNION ET DE MAURICE EN MAINTENANT UNE INTENSITE SIGNIFICATIVE.
LEURS HABITANTS SONT DONC INVITES A SE TENIR REGULIEREMENT AU COURANT
DE LA SITUATION.=

2018-01-16 07:31

WTIO30 FMEE 160726

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/3/20172018
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BERGUITTA)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/16 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1 S / 61.5 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL
FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/W 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 955 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 560 SW: 560 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 90 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/16 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 60.5 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/01/17 06 UTC: 19.0 S / 59.4 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/01/17 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 58.1 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/01/18 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 56.1 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/01/18 18 UTC: 22.4 S / 53.9 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2018/01/19 06 UTC: 23.6 S / 52.2 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/20 06 UTC: 28.1 S / 50.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/01/21 06 UTC: 34.2 S / 50.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5+ CI=5.0

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS , DEEP CONVECTION STRUCTURE OF BERGUITTA
HAS DEGRADED, WITH THE TEMPORARY LOST OF EYE STRUCTURE; THE EYE SEEMS
TO REBUILD ON THE LAST SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS WEAKENING IS
CORROBORATED BY LAST SSMIS DATA OF 01H46Z WHICH SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN
THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF DEEP OF THE EYE. THE CHANGE IS DUE TO THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE EASTERN UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT ASSOCIATED WITH
DRY AIR INTHE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

THE MID-TROPOSPHERE HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL CELL LOCATED SOUTH GENERATE A
WESTERWARD STEERING FLOW. FROM WEDNESDAY, WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE
RIDGE, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEND PROGRESSIVELY SOUTHWESTWARD. IT IS
EXPECTED THEN, TO MOVE NEARBY THE MAIN MASCARENES ISLANDS (REUNION
AND MAURICE). TIMING IS STILL UNCLEAR WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
(AROUND SIX HOURS) BETWEEN MAJOR NUMERICAL MODELS. THIS TRACK
FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE LAST RUNS OF GFS AND
IFS.

THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL REMAINS GOOD, BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE BECOMING MITIGATED BETWEEN MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR FORECAST TO INCREASE END OF THE PERIOD AND A GOOD POLAR
OUTFLOW CHANNEL.THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM IS EXPETED TO WEAKEN VERY
SLOWLY UNTIL FRIDAY THEN MORE FRANKLY, AS THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL WOULD
BE BY THAT TIME, THE LIMITING FACTOR, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF 25S.


HOWEVER THE WEAKENING OF THE LAST HOURS BERGUITTA REMAIN A VERY
DANGEROUS SYSTEM WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE CLOSER MAURICE AND REUNION
ISLANDS AT A SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY. INHABITANTS ARE INVITED TO
MONITOR CLOSELY THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE NEXT DAYS.=

2018-01-16 06:31

WTIO20 FMEE 160624 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/01/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 16/01/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BERGUITTA) 955 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1 S / 61.5 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/16 AT 18 UTC:
18.5 S / 60.5 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/01/17 AT 06 UTC:
19.0 S / 59.4 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-01-16 06:31

WTIO20 FMEE 160620
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/01/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 16/01/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BERGUITTA) 955 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1 S / 61.5 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/16 AT 18 UTC:
18.5 S / 60.5 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/01/17 AT 06 UTC:
19.0 S / 59.4 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-01-16 05:01

WTXS31 PGTW 160300 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 014A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 014A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 18.2S 61.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 61.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 18.6S 60.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 19.1S 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.9S 58.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 21.0S 57.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 23.7S 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 27.2S 51.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 32.0S 51.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 61.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
COMPACT EYE THAT HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY RAGGED OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE EIR EYE FIXES, AND SUPPORTED BY A 152323Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE
EYE. THE SSMIS IMAGE INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEGRADED AROUND
THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, BUT HAS EXPANDED ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE,
WITH POSSIBLE EARLY INDICATIONS OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE
(ERC) SETTING UP. DESPITE SOME DEGRADATION IN THE EIR AND MICROWAVE
PRESENTATION, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 100 KNOTS BASED
ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM ALL
REPORTING AGENCIES, AND SUPPORTED BY A MULTI-PLATFORM WIND ANALYSIS
ESTIMATE OF 106 KNOTS. BERGUITTA REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
NEARLY UNDERNEATH A POINT SOURCE, WITH THE LATEST SHIPS ANALYSIS
INDICATING LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND 28
DEGREE CELSIUS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
LOOPS SHOW THAT OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST, ALTHOUGH THE POLEWARD
CHANNEL HAS RELAXED SLIGHTLY. SOME SLIGHT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS
POSSIBLE AS TC 06S TRACKS OVER A TONGUE OF HIGHER SSTS, HOWEVER,
SHIPS INDICATES VWS WILL BEGIN TO LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION BY TAU
24. GIVEN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, BERGUITTA SHOULD BE ABLE
TO MAINTAIN A NEAR STEADY INTENSITY AROUND 100 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 36
HOURS, ALTHOUGH THE EXACT VALUES WILL FLUCTUATE IF AN ERC DOES
OCCUR. BEYOND TAU 36, INCREASING VWS AND DECLINING OCEANIC SUPPORT
WILL LEAD TO WEAKENING. THE LATEST BEST TRACK INDICATES TC 06S HAS
BEGUN TO PICK UP FORWARD SPEED, WITH THE GFS INITIALIZATION
INDICATING A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TC 06S
BUILDING MORE RAPIDLY THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. AS A RESULT, THE
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS WARNING
AND AHEAD OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY MOTION SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL BERGUITTA TURNS SOUTHWARD
AND BEGINS TO ROUND THE STR NEAR TAU 96. EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY TAU 96 AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER SUB-26
DEGREE CELSIUS WATER, AND SHOULD BE COMPLETE BY TAU 120. AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE SPREAD HAS REMAINED LOW FOR
SEVERAL CYCLES, WITH THE BULK OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE ALONG-TRACK
DIRECTION. DUE TO GENERALLY GOOD MODEL GUIDANCE AGREEMENT, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z,
162100Z AND 170300Z. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: REFERENCE TO 09S
CORRECTED TO 06S AND WARNING FREQUENCY UPDATED TO SIX HOURLY IN
REMARKS SECTIONS.//

2018-01-16 03:01

WTXS51 PGTW 160300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 180116020738
2018011600 06S BERGUITTA 014 01 260 07 SATL 030
T000 182S 0619E 100 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 175 SE QD
160 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 186S 0607E 105 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 070 SE QD 075 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 215 SE QD
200 SW QD 105 NW QD
T024 191S 0596E 100 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 070 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 200 SE QD
190 SW QD 115 NW QD
T036 199S 0585E 095 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 200 SE QD
190 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 210S 0570E 090 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 205 SE QD
175 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 237S 0538E 080 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 200 SE QD
175 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 272S 0514E 075 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 195 SE QD
160 SW QD 105 NW QD
T120 320S 0510E 050 R050 070 NE QD 085 SE QD 105 SW QD 080 NW QD R034
140 NE QD 220 SE QD 175 SW QD 125 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

2018-01-16 03:01

WTXS51 PGTW 160300
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 180116020738
2018011600 06S BERGUITTA 014 01 260 07 SATL 030
T000 182S 0619E 100 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 175 SE QD 160 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 186S 0607E 105 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 070 SE QD 075 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 215 SE QD 200 SW QD 105 NW QD
T024 191S 0596E 100 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 070 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 200 SE QD 190 SW QD 115 NW QD
T036 199S 0585E 095 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 200 SE QD 190 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 210S 0570E 090 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 205 SE QD 175 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 237S 0538E 080 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 200 SE QD 175 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 272S 0514E 075 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 195 SE QD 160 SW QD 105 NW QD
T120 320S 0510E 050 R050 070 NE QD 085 SE QD 105 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 220 SE QD 175 SW QD 125 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 18.2S 61.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 61.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 18.6S 60.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 19.1S 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.9S 58.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 21.0S 57.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 23.7S 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 27.2S 51.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 32.0S 51.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 61.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 161500Z AND 170300Z.
//
0618011100 130S 679E 15
0618011106 131S 683E 20
0618011112 137S 687E 30
0618011118 146S 690E 30
0618011200 153S 690E 30
0618011206 162S 685E 30
0618011212 168S 676E 30
0618011218 170S 669E 35
0618011300 174S 658E 35
0618011306 176S 651E 40
0618011312 181S 644E 40
0618011318 182S 638E 40
0618011400 182S 634E 50
0618011400 182S 634E 50
0618011406 182S 632E 55
0618011406 182S 632E 55
0618011412 181S 631E 55
0618011412 181S 631E 55
0618011418 180S 631E 55
0618011418 180S 631E 55
0618011500 178S 632E 65
0618011500 178S 632E 65
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011512 180S 630E 90
0618011512 180S 630E 90
0618011512 180S 630E 90
0618011518 181S 626E 100
0618011518 181S 626E 100
0618011518 181S 626E 100
0618011600 182S 619E 100
0618011600 182S 619E 100
0618011600 182S 619E 100

2018-01-16 03:01

WTXS31 PGTW 160300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 18.2S 61.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 61.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 18.6S 60.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-01-16 03:01

WTXS31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 18.2S 61.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 61.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 18.6S 60.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 19.1S 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.9S 58.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 21.0S 57.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 23.7S 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 27.2S 51.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 32.0S 51.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 61.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
COMPACT EYE THAT HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY RAGGED OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE EIR EYE FIXES, AND SUPPORTED BY A 152323Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE
EYE. THE SSMIS IMAGE INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEGRADED AROUND
THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, BUT HAS EXPANDED ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE,
WITH POSSIBLE EARLY INDICATIONS OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE
(ERC) SETTING UP. DESPITE SOME DEGRADATION IN THE EIR AND MICROWAVE
PRESENTATION, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 100 KNOTS BASED
ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM ALL
REPORTING AGENCIES, AND SUPPORTED BY A MULTI-PLATFORM WIND ANALYSIS
ESTIMATE OF 106 KNOTS. BERGUITTA REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
NEARLY UNDERNEATH A POINT SOURCE, WITH THE LATEST SHIPS ANALYSIS
INDICATING LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND 28
DEGREE CELSIUS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
LOOPS SHOW THAT OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST, ALTHOUGH THE POLEWARD
CHANNEL HAS RELAXED SLIGHTLY. SOME SLIGHT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS
POSSIBLE AS TC 09S TRACKS OVER A TONGUE OF HIGHER SSTS, HOWEVER,
SHIPS INDICATES VWS WILL BEGIN TO LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION BY TAU
24. GIVEN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, BERGUITTA SHOULD BE ABLE
TO MAINTAIN A NEAR STEADY INTENSITY AROUND 100 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 36
HOURS, ALTHOUGH THE EXACT VALUES WILL FLUCTUATE IF AN ERC DOES
OCCUR. BEYOND TAU 36, INCREASING VWS AND DECLINING OCEANIC SUPPORT
WILL LEAD TO WEAKENING. THE LATEST BEST TRACK INDICATES TC 06S HAS
BEGUN TO PICK UP FORWARD SPEED, WITH THE GFS INITIALIZATION
INDICATING A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TC 06S
BUILDING MORE RAPIDLY THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. AS A RESULT, THE
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS WARNING
AND AHEAD OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY MOTION SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL BERGUITTA TURNS SOUTHWARD
AND BEGINS TO ROUND THE STR NEAR TAU 96. EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY TAU 96 AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER SUB-26
DEGREE CELSIUS WATER, AND SHOULD BE COMPLETE BY TAU 120. AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE SPREAD HAS REMAINED LOW FOR
SEVERAL CYCLES, WITH THE BULK OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE ALONG-TRACK
DIRECTION. DUE TO GENERALLY GOOD MODEL GUIDANCE AGREEMENT, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z AND 170300Z.//

2018-01-16 01:16

WTIO31 FMEE 160037

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/3/20172018
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 3 (BERGUITTA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 16/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 15 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.2 S / 61.9 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE UN DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.5/5.5/D 1.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 940 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :24 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 560 SO: 560 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 240 SO: 240 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SO: 90 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 50

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 16/01/2018 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 60.8 E, VENT MAX=100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 17/01/2018 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX=110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 17/01/2018 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 18/01/2018 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 56.8 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 18/01/2018 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 54.8 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 19/01/2018 00 UTC: 22.9 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/01/2018 00 UTC: 25.9 S / 50.1 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
120H: 21/01/2018 00 UTC: 31.3 S / 48.9 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=5.5- CI=5.5

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, BERGUITTA A GLOBALEMENT PEU EVOLUE
EN CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE. NEANMOINS, SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES,LA
STRUCTURE EN OEIL A COMMENCE A SE DEGRADER. L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE SSMIS
DE 2323Z MONTRE LA PRESENCE D'UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LA PARTIE EST DE
L'OEIL. CE CHANGEMENT N'EST A PRIORI PAS DU A UNE HAUSSE DU
CISAILLEMENT QUI RESTE TOUJOURS FAIBLE DANS LES DIFFERENTES ANALYSES
DISPONIBLES. LA DIVERGENECE D'ALTITUDE SEMBLE D'AILLEURS SE
RENFORCER. IL POURRAIT S'AGIR D'UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE
L'OEIL. LES DONNEES DE LA DERNIERE SSMIS AJOUTEES A CELLES DE LA
PASSE WINDSAT DE 1431Z PEUVENT SUGGERER LA PRESENCE D'UN SECONDE MUR
EN FORMATION.

UNE CELLULE DE HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE AU
SUD INDUIT UN FLUX DIRECTEUR ORIENTE VERS L'OUEST. A PARTIR DE
MERCREDI, LE SYSTEME VA ADOPTER PROGRESSIVEMENT UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS
LE SUD-OUEST EN RAISON DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA DORSALE. IL DEVRAIT
ALORS TRANSITER A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DES PRINCIPALES ILES DES
MASCAREIGNES (MAURICE ET LA REUNION). LE TIMING RESTE ENCORE
INCERTAIN SUR CE TRAJET AVEC DES DIFFERENCES NOTABLES (DE L'ORDRE DE
DOUZE HEURES) ENTRE LES MODELES DETERMINISTES MAJEURS. LA PRESENTE
PREVISION EST BASE PRINCIPALEMENT SUR UN CONSENSUS DES DERNIERS
RESEAUX DES MODELES GFS ET IFS.

AVEC UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE CONSEQUENT ET UN FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT DE
VENT, BERGUITTA CONTINUE DE PROFITER DE TRES BONNE CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES. AUJOURD'HUI LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE DEVRAIT
S'AMELIORER AVEC LA MISE EN PLACE PROGRESSIVE DE DEUX CANAUX
D'EVACUATION A LA FOIS CA TE POLAIRE ET EQUATORIAL. SI LE CYCLE DE
REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL SE CONFIRME, BERGUITTA POURRAIT SE
RENFORCER A NOUVEAU. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL
DE NORD-EST EST PREVU SE RENFORCER SUR LA FACE EST DE LA DORSALE DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI SE DEVELOPPE. BERGUITTA DEVRAIT ALORS
S'AFFAIBLIR D'AUTANT PLUS QU'IL RESTE DE PETITE TAILLE. EN FIN
D'ECHEANCE, LA CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE POURRAIT DIMINUER PERMETTANT
ALORS UNE NOUVELLE PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION TEMPORAIRE. LE POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE DEVIENDRAIT ALORS LE FACTEUR LIMITANT NOTAMMENT AU SUD DE
25S

BERGUITTA EST ACTUELLEMENT UN SYSTEME TRES DANGEREUX QUI EST PREVU SE
RAPPROCHER DE LA REUNION ET DE MAURICE EN MAINTENANT UNE INTENSITE
SIGNIFICATIVE. LEURS HABITANTS SONT DONC INVITES A SE TENIR
REGULIEREMENT AU COURANT DE LA SITUATION.=

2018-01-16 01:16

WTIO30 FMEE 160037

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/3/20172018
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BERGUITTA)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/16 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 61.9 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL
NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :24 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 560 SW: 560 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 90 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/16 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 60.8 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2018/01/17 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 59.7 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2018/01/17 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 58.3 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/01/18 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 56.8 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/01/18 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 54.8 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2018/01/19 00 UTC: 22.9 S / 53.0 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/20 00 UTC: 25.9 S / 50.1 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2018/01/21 00 UTC: 31.3 S / 48.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5- CI=5.5

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS , BERGUITTA CLOUD PATTERN STAYED RATHER THE
SAME. BUT ON THE LATEST IMAGES, THE EYE STRUCTURE LOST DEFINITION.
2323Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW THE EXISTENCE OF A WEAKNESS IN THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE EYE. THIS EVOLUTION IS UNLIKELY DUE TO AN
INCREASE OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS STILL ANALYSED AS WEAK.
MOREOVER, UPPER DIVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE INCREASING DURING THE SAME
TIME LAPSE. IT MAY BE AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. LAST SSMIS DATA
IN ADDITION TO 1423Z WINDSAT MAY SUGGEST THE EXISTENCE OF A BUILDING
SECONDARY EYEWALL.


THE MID-TROPOSPHERE HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL CELL LOCATED SOUTH GENERATE A
WESTERWARD STEERING FLOW. FROM WEDNESDAY, WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE
RIDGE, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEND PROGRESSIVELY SOUTHWESTWARD. IT IS
EXPECTED THEN, TO MOVE NEARBY THE MAIN MASCARENES ISLANDS (REUNION
AND MAURICE). TIMING IS STILL UNCLEAR WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
(AROUND TWELVE HOURS) BETWEEN MAJOR NUMERICAL MODELS. THIS TRACK
FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE LAST RUNS OF GFS AND
IFS.


WITH A GOOD OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BERGUITTA
IS BENEFITING FROM VERY CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.TODAY,
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE WITH BOTH POLAR AND
EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS. IF THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS
CONFIRMED, BERGUITTA COULD DEEPEN AGAIN. FROM WEDNESDAY,
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE. BERGUITTA INTENSITY IS
LIKELY TO DECREASE, ALL THE MORE IT HAS A SMALL SIZE. AT LONG RANGE,
WITH THE DECAY OF THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE SYSTEM MAY START
DEEPENING AGAIN TEMPORARILY. BUT THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL WOULD BE BY
THAT TIME, THE LIMITING FACTOR, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF 25S.

BERGUITTA IS NOW A VERY DANGEROUS SYSTEM WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
CLOSER MAURICE AND REUNION ISLANDS AT A SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY.
INHABITANTS ARE INVITED TO MONITOR CLOSELY THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM IN THE NEXT DAYS.=

2018-01-16 00:16

WTIO20 FMEE 160013
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/01/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 16/01/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BERGUITTA) 940 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 61.9 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/16 AT 12 UTC:
18.4 S / 60.8 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/01/17 AT 00 UTC:
18.8 S / 59.7 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-01-15 21:16

WTXS51 PGTW 152100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 180115201849
2018011518 06S BERGUITTA 013 01 255 04 SATL 030
T000 181S 0626E 100 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 185 SE QD
170 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 183S 0617E 105 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 185 SE QD
170 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 186S 0607E 105 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 190 SE QD
180 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 191S 0595E 100 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 190 SE QD
180 SW QD 125 NW QD
T048 201S 0581E 100 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 085 SE QD 085 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 190 SE QD
180 SW QD 125 NW QD
T072 225S 0547E 090 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 085 SE QD 070 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 190 SE QD
180 SW QD 125 NW QD
T096 261S 0520E 080 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 200 SE QD
170 SW QD 105 NW QD
T120 312S 0511E 055 R050 055 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R034
125 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

2018-01-15 21:16

WTXS51 PGTW 152100
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 180115201849
2018011518 06S BERGUITTA 013 01 255 04 SATL 030
T000 181S 0626E 100 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 185 SE QD 170 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 183S 0617E 105 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 185 SE QD 170 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 186S 0607E 105 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 191S 0595E 100 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 125 NW QD
T048 201S 0581E 100 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 085 SE QD 085 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 125 NW QD
T072 225S 0547E 090 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 085 SE QD 070 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 125 NW QD
T096 261S 0520E 080 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 200 SE QD 170 SW QD 105 NW QD
T120 312S 0511E 055 R050 055 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 18.1S 62.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 62.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.3S 61.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.6S 60.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 19.1S 59.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 20.1S 58.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 22.5S 54.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 26.1S 52.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 31.2S 51.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 62.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 324 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 160900Z AND 162100Z.
//
0618011100 130S 679E 15
0618011106 131S 683E 20
0618011112 137S 687E 30
0618011118 146S 690E 30
0618011200 153S 690E 30
0618011206 162S 685E 30
0618011212 168S 676E 30
0618011218 170S 669E 35
0618011300 174S 658E 35
0618011306 176S 651E 40
0618011312 181S 644E 40
0618011318 182S 638E 40
0618011400 182S 634E 50
0618011400 182S 634E 50
0618011406 182S 632E 55
0618011406 182S 632E 55
0618011412 181S 631E 55
0618011412 181S 631E 55
0618011418 180S 631E 55
0618011418 180S 631E 55
0618011500 178S 632E 65
0618011500 178S 632E 65
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011512 180S 630E 90
0618011512 180S 630E 90
0618011512 180S 630E 90
0618011518 181S 626E 100
0618011518 181S 626E 100
0618011518 181S 626E 100

2018-01-15 21:16

WTXS31 PGTW 152100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 18.1S 62.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 62.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.3S 61.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-01-15 21:16

WTXS31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 18.1S 62.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 62.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.3S 61.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.6S 60.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 19.1S 59.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 20.1S 58.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 22.5S 54.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 26.1S 52.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 31.2S 51.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 62.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 324 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED 17 NM WIDE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR EYE FIXES. A 151755Z
AMSU 89 GHZ PASS ALSO SUPPORTS THE POSITION WITH A PARTIAL MICROWAVE
EYE AND A COMPACT CONVECTIVE CORE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED
TO 100 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5
(102 KNOTS) FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES, AND SUPPORTED BY A MULTI-
PLATFORM WIND ANALYSIS ESTIMATE OF 100 KNOTS. BERGUITTA REMAINS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT NEARLY UNDERNEATH A POINT SOURCE, WITH THE
LATEST SHIPS ANALYSIS INDICATING LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), AND 28 DEGREE CELSIUS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS).
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW THAT OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST,
PARTICULARLY IN THE POLEWARD CHANNEL. SOME SLIGHT FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE AS TC 09S TRACKS OVER A TONGUE OF HIGHER
SSTS, HOWEVER, SHIPS INDICATES VWS WILL BEGIN TO LIMIT THE
INTENSIFICATION BY TAU 24. ADDITIONALLY, THE HWRF MODEL HAS FINALLY
LEVELED OFF. GIVEN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, BERGUITTA SHOULD
BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN A NEAR STEADY INTENSITY AROUND 100 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT TWO DAYS, AFTER WHICH ADDITIONAL VWS AND DECLINING OCEANIC
SUPPORT WILL LEAD TO WEAKENING. THE LATEST BEST TRACK INDICATES TC
06S HAS BEGUN A SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED FORWARD MOTION, HOWEVER,
COMPETING STEERING MECHANISMS ARE STILL IN PLACE. AS A RESULT, TRACK
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN SLOW FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BETWEEN TAU 24 TO
36, A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE STEERING RIDGES IS EXPECTED TO FORM,
ALLOWING A TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND AN ACCELERATION OF FOREWARD
MOTION. SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BERGUITTA IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN AFTER TAU 36, FURTHER ENHANCING THE
SOUTHWESTERLY MOTION UNTIL TC 09S TURNS SOUTHWARD AND BEGINS TO
ROUND THE RIDGE NEAR TAU 96. EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN BY TAU 96 AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER SUB-26 DEGREE CELSIUS
WATERS, AND SHOULD BE COMPLETE BY TAU 120. AVAILABLE DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
TRACK SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE LOW SPREAD AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE, THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND PRIOR
FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
151800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z AND 162100Z.//

2018-01-15 19:31

WTIO31 FMEE 151843

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/3/20172018
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 3 (BERGUITTA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 15/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.2 S / 62.6 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE DEUX DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.5/5.5/D 2.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 940 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 16/01/2018 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 61.1 E, VENT MAX=100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 16/01/2018 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 59.8 E, VENT MAX=110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 17/01/2018 06 UTC: 19.2 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 17/01/2018 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 57.3 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 18/01/2018 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 55.6 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 18/01/2018 18 UTC: 22.6 S / 53.6 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 19/01/2018 18 UTC: 25.9 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
120H: 20/01/2018 18 UTC: 31.1 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=5.5

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, BERGUITTA A PEU EVOLUE EN
CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE. L'OEIL EST DEVENU PLUS NETTE ET S'EST UN PEU
RECHAUFFE MAIS LES ESTIMATIONS DVORAK SONT STABLES A 5.5. EN TERME DE
DEPLACEMENT, LE SYSTEME A CONFIRME SA REPRISE DE MOUVEMENT AVEC UNE
TRAJECTOIRE ORIENTE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST.


UNE CELLULE DE HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE AU
SUD INDUIT UN FLUX DIRECTEUR ORIENTE VERS L'OUEST. A PARTIR DE
MERCREDI, LE SYSTEME VA ADOPTER PROGRESSIVEMENT UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS
LE SUD-OUEST EN RAISON DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA DORSALE. IL DEVRAIT
ALORS TRANSITER A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DES PRINCIPALES ILES DES
MASCAREIGNES (MAURICE ET LA REUNION). LE TIMING RESTE ENCORE
INCERTAIN SUR CE TRAJET AVEC DES DIFFERENCES NOTABLES (DE L'ORDRE DE
DOUZE HEURES) ENTRE LES MODELES DETERMINISTES MAJEURS. LA PRESENTE
PREVISION EST BASE PRINCIPALEMENT SUR UN CONSENSUS DES DERNIERS
RESEAUX DES MODELES GFS ET IFS.

AVEC UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE CONSEQUENT ET UN FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT DE
VENT, BERGUITTA CONTINUE DE PROFITER DE TRES BONNE CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES. DEMAIN LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE DEVRAIT
S'AMELIORER AVEC LA MISE EN PLACE PROGRESSIVE DE DEUX CANAUX
D'EVACUATION A LA FOIS CA TE POLAIRE ET EQUATORIAL. IL POURRAIT DONC
SE RENFORCER ENCORE LEGEREMENT DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES. CETTE
PREVISION NE TIENT PAS COMPTE D'EVENTUELS CYCLES DE REMPLACEMENT DU
MUR DE L'OEIL QUI POURRAIT AFFAIBLIR TEMPORAIREMENT LE SYSTEME. A
PARTIR DE MERCREDI, LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE NORD-EST EST PREVU SE
RENFORCER SUR LA FACE EST DE LA DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI SE
DEVELOPPE. BERGUITTA DEVRAIT ALORS S'AFFAIBLIR D'AUTANT PLUS QU'IL
RESTE DE PETITE TAILLE. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, LA CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE
POURRAIT DIMINUER PERMETTANT ALORS UNE NOUVELLE PHASE
D'INTENSIFICATION. LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE SERAIT ALORS LE FACTEUR
LIMITANT NOTAMMENT AU SUD DE 25S

BERGUITTA EST ACTUELLEMENT UN SYSTEME TRES DANGEREUX QUI EST PREVU SE
RAPPROCHER DE LA REUNION ET DE MAURICE EN MAITENANT UNE INTENSITE
SIGNIFICATIVE. LEURS HABITANTS SONT DONC INVITES A SE TENIR
REGULIEREMENT AU COURANT DE LA SITUATION.=

2018-01-15 19:31

WTIO30 FMEE 151843

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/3/20172018
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BERGUITTA)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/15 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 62.6 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 2.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/16 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 61.1 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2018/01/16 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 59.8 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2018/01/17 06 UTC: 19.2 S / 58.6 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2018/01/17 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 57.3 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/01/18 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 55.6 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2018/01/18 18 UTC: 22.6 S / 53.6 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/19 18 UTC: 25.9 S / 50.6 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2018/01/20 18 UTC: 31.1 S / 50.2 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS , BERGUITTA CLOUD PATTERN DID NOT CHANGE A
LOT. THE EYE IS CLEARER AND A BIT WARMER, BUT DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE
STILL STABLE AT 5.5. AS FOR THE MOVEMENT, THE CYCLONE CONFIRMED THE
RESUMPTION OF DISPLACEMENT, WITH A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK.

THE MID-TROPOSPHERE HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL CELL LOCATED SOUTH GENERATE A
WESTERWARD STEERING FLOW. FROM WEDNESDAY, WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE
RIDGE, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEND PROGRESSIVELY SOUTHWESTWARD. IT IS
EXPECTED THEN, TO MOVE NEARBY THE MAIN MASCARENES ISLANDS (REUNION
AND MAURICE). TIMING IS STILL UNCLEAR WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
(AROUND TWELVE HOURS) BETWEEN MAJOR NUMERICAL MODELS. THIS TRACK
FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE LAST RUNS OF GFS AND
IFS.


WITH A GOOD OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BERGUITTA
IS BENEFITING FROM VERY CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.TOMORROW,
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE WITH BOTH POLAR AND
EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS. IT MAY SO DEEPEN A BIT MORE, IN THE
FOLLOWING HOURS. EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES THAT COULD WEAKEN
TEMPORARILY THE SYSTEM, ARE NOT TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT IN THIS FORECAST.
FROM WEDNESDAY, NORTHEASTELY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE.
BERGUITTA INTENSITY IS LIKELY TO DECREASE ALL THE MORE, IT HAS A
SMALL SIZE. AT LONG RANGE, WITH THE DECAY OF THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
THE SYSTEM MAY DEEPEN AGAIN. THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL WOULD BE BY THAT
TIME, THE LIMITING FACTOR, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF 25S.

BERGUITTA IS NOW A VERY DANGEROUS SYSTEM WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
CLOSER MAURICE AND REUNION ISLANDS AT A SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY.
INHABITANTS ARE INVITED TO MONITOR CLOSELY THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM IN THE NEXT DAYS.=

2018-01-15 18:31

WTIO20 FMEE 151814
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/01/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 15/01/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BERGUITTA) 940 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 62.6 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/16 AT 06 UTC:
18.6 S / 61.1 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/01/16 AT 18 UTC:
18.7 S / 59.8 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-01-15 15:01

WTXS51 PGTW 151500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 180115135753
2018011512 06S BERGUITTA 012 01 225 03 SATL 015
T000 180S 0630E 090 R064 020 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 200 SE QD
170 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 182S 0623E 100 R064 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 260 SE QD
210 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 185S 0614E 105 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 280 SE QD
230 SW QD 115 NW QD
T036 190S 0605E 110 R064 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 280 SE QD
235 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 197S 0592E 105 R064 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 105 SE QD 095 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 285 SE QD
230 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 220S 0559E 100 R064 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 105 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 250 SE QD
230 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 251S 0528E 085 R064 035 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 105 SE QD 070 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 240 SE QD
205 SW QD 105 NW QD
T120 293S 0508E 065 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 210 SE QD
185 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

2018-01-15 15:01

WTXS51 PGTW 151500
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 180115135753
2018011512 06S BERGUITTA 012 01 225 03 SATL 015
T000 180S 0630E 090 R064 020 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 200 SE QD 170 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 182S 0623E 100 R064 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 260 SE QD 210 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 185S 0614E 105 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 280 SE QD 230 SW QD 115 NW QD
T036 190S 0605E 110 R064 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 280 SE QD 235 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 197S 0592E 105 R064 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 105 SE QD 095 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 285 SE QD 230 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 220S 0559E 100 R064 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 105 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 250 SE QD 230 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 251S 0528E 085 R064 035 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 105 SE QD 070 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 240 SE QD 205 SW QD 105 NW QD
T120 293S 0508E 065 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 210 SE QD 185 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 18.0S 63.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 63.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 18.2S 62.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 18.5S 61.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 19.0S 60.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.7S 59.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 22.0S 55.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 25.1S 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 29.3S 50.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 62.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 347 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.
//
0618011100 130S 679E 15
0618011106 131S 683E 20
0618011112 137S 687E 30
0618011118 146S 690E 30
0618011200 153S 690E 30
0618011206 162S 685E 30
0618011212 168S 676E 30
0618011218 170S 669E 35
0618011300 174S 658E 35
0618011306 176S 651E 40
0618011312 181S 644E 40
0618011318 182S 638E 40
0618011400 182S 634E 50
0618011400 182S 634E 50
0618011406 182S 632E 55
0618011406 182S 632E 55
0618011412 181S 631E 55
0618011412 181S 631E 55
0618011418 180S 631E 55
0618011418 180S 631E 55
0618011500 178S 632E 65
0618011500 178S 632E 65
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011512 180S 630E 90
0618011512 180S 630E 90
0618011512 180S 630E 90

2018-01-15 15:01

WTXS31 PGTW 151500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 18.0S 63.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 63.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 18.2S 62.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-01-15 15:01

WTXS31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 18.0S 63.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 63.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 18.2S 62.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 18.5S 61.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 19.0S 60.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.7S 59.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 22.0S 55.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 25.1S 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 29.3S 50.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 62.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 347 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A 10 NM WIDE EYE FEATURE.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE
FEATURE VISIBLE IN MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 151210 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH A CLEARLY DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE. THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION ENCIRCLING THE
EYE FEATURE WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE WESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 90 KNOTS BASED ON MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.0 TO T5.5
(90 TO 102 KNOTS), FROM PGTW AND KNES RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A MULTI-PLATFORM SATELLITE WIND
ANALYSIS ESTIMATE OF 88 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS IS IN
AN AREA WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS)
AND WARM (28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS THAT THEY SYSTEM HAS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND A POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. TC 06S HAS BEEN QUASI STATIONARY FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS.
THE SYSTEM IS NOR FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH, AND ANOTHER
STR BUILDING OVER EASTERN MADAGASCAR. AS THE STR TO THE SOUTH
BUILDS, IT WILL ALSO TRANSIT TO THE WEST AND TAKE OVER AS THE
PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE CAUSING TC 06S TO TRACK MORE TO THE
SOUTHWEST AFTER TAU 36. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT HAS ALLOWED THE
SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE PERSISTENT
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU
36, EVENTUALLY REACHING A PEAK OF 110 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 36, THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS VWS INCREASES AND THE
SYSTEM TRACKS INTO AN AREA OF COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
SYSTEM HAS WILL TRACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST INITIALLY AND THEN
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. DUE TO THE STRONG AGREEMENT OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z,
160900Z AND 161500Z.//

2018-01-15 13:16

WTIO31 FMEE 151252

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/3/20172018
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 3 (BERGUITTA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 15/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 21 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.9 S / 63.0 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE TROIS DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.5/5.5/D 1.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 940 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 16/01/2018 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX=100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 16/01/2018 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 60.8 E, VENT MAX=100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 17/01/2018 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 59.5 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 17/01/2018 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 18/01/2018 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 56.3 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 18/01/2018 12 UTC: 21.3 S / 54.5 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 19/01/2018 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 52.1 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
120H: 20/01/2018 12 UTC: 28.7 S / 51.3 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=5.5

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EN OEIL SE MAINTIENT ET PLACE LE SYSTEME
DANS UNE PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE. LA TAILLE REDUITE DE
BERGUITTA PERMET DES VARIATIONS D'INTENSITE FORTE ET DEFINIT UNE
ANALYSE DVORAK DE 5.5 CLASSANT LE SYSTEME BERGUITTA EN CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE. LA REPRISE DU DEPLACEMENT SEMBLE AVOIR LIEU DEPUIS
PEU.

MEME SI LA SITUATION SYNOPTIQUE RESTE LA MEME : UNE CELLULE DE HAUTS
GEOPOTENTIELS DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE AU SUD DE MADAGASCAR
INDUISANT UN FLUX DIRECTEUR ORIENTE VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST, LE
RETARD DE REPRISE DE DEPLACEMENT JUSTIFIE UN DECALAGE DANS LA
TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD. LE SYSTEME VA ALORS ADOPTER PROGRESSIVEMENT
UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST A PARTIR DE MERCREDI ET LE FAIRE
TRANSITER AU NORD IMMEDIAT DES MASCAREIGNES, A DES DISTANCES PLUS
COURTES QUE PREVUES INITIALEMENT. POUR LE MOMENT, UN PASSAGE AU PLUS
PROCHE DE MOINS DE 50KM, VOIRE AVEC UN IMPACT DIRECT, EST PREVU POUR
MAURICE DANS LA NUIT DE MERCREDI A JEUDI PUIS POUR LA REUNION. A
NOTER QUE LE SCENARIO D'UN PASSAGE AU SUD DES ILES N'EST PAS ENCORE
ECARTE SI LA REPRISE DE DEPLACEMENT RESTE LIMITEE.

AVEC UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE CONSEQUENT ET MALGRE SON LENT
DEPLACEMENT, BERGUITTA DEVRAIT CONTINUER A BENEFICIER DE BONNES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL FAIBLE. LA
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE CONTINUE DE S'AMELIORER AVEC LA MISE EN PLACE
PROGRESSIVE DE DEUX CANAUX D'EVACUATION A LA FOIS CA TE POLAIRE ET
EQUATORIAL QUI DEVRAIENT PERMETTRE AU SYSTEME DE MAINTENIR LE STADE
DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE. COMPTE TENU DE LA PETITE TAILLE DU
SYSTEME, BERGUITTA PEUT A TRE SOUMIS A DES VARIATIONS RAPIDES
D'INTENSITE MAIS A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE
NORD-EST DEVRAIT DEVENIR MODERE SUR LA FACE EST DE LA DORSALE DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI SE DEVELOPPE. BERGUITTA EST ALORS PREVU
S'AFFAIBLIR MAIS CONSERVER LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL LORS DE SON
TRANSIT AU PLUS PRES DES MASCAREIGNES.

BERGUITTA EST PREVU SE RAPPROCHER DE LA REUNION ET DE MAURICE EN
S'INTENSIFIANT AVEC POSSIBILITE D'IMPACT DIRECT. LEURS HABITANTS SONT
INVITES A SE TENIR REGULIEREMENT AU COURANT DE LA SITUATION.=

2018-01-15 13:16

WTIO30 FMEE 151252

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/3/20172018
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BERGUITTA)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/15 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.9 S / 63.0 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL
ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 1.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/16 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 62.0 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2018/01/16 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 60.8 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2018/01/17 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 59.5 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2018/01/17 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 58.1 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/01/18 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 56.3 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2018/01/18 12 UTC: 21.3 S / 54.5 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/19 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 52.1 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2018/01/20 12 UTC: 28.7 S / 51.3 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5

THE EYE CLOUD PATTERN MAINTAINS AND GIVES TO THE SYSTEM A RAPID
INTENSIFICATION PHASE. THE SMALL SIZE OF BERGUITTA PERMITS RAPID
INTENSITY VARIATIONS AND DEFINES A DVORAK ANALYSIS OF 5.5,
CLASSIFYING BERGUITTA IN AN INTENSE CYCLONE TROPICAL STATUS. THE
RESUMPTION OF DISPLACEMENT SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN SINCE THE LAST HOUR.

EVEN THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION REMAINS THE SAME : THE MID-TROPOSPHERE
HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL CELL LOCATED SOUTH OF MADACASCAR GENERATE A
WEST-NORTH-WEST STEERING FLOW, THE DELAY OF RESUMPTION MOVES JUSTIFY
A SHIFT IN THE TRACK SOUTH. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEND PROGRESSIVELY
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM WEDNESDAY AND CONSIDER A TRANSIT CLOSE TO THE
NORTH OF REUNION AND MAURICE ISLANDS, AT SHORTER DISTANCES THAN
INITIALLY FORECASTED. FOR THE MOMENT, A PASSAGE CLOSER TO LESS THAN
50KM, OR DIRECT IMPACT, IS EXPECTED FOR MAURITIUS DURING THE NIGHT
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AND AFTER FOR REUNION ISLAND. NOTE
THAT THE SCENARIO OF A PASSAGE SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS IS NOT YET CLEAR
IF THE RESUMPTION OF MOVEMENT REMAINS LIMITED.

WITH A GOOD OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND DESPITE ITS SLOW MOVEMENT,
BERGUITTA SHOULD EXPECTED TO BENEFIT GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
WITH A WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE WITH BOTH POLAR AND EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS
THAT SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO STAY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS.
BERGUITTA, WITH THIS SMALL SIZE, IS LIKELY EXPERIENCE RAPID INTENSITY
CHANGE BUT FROM WEDNESDAY, NORTHEASTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS
FORESCATED TO INCREASE AND BECOME MODERATE OVER THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE. SO BERGUITTA IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS IN THE VICINITY OF MAURITIUS
AND REUNION ISLANDS.

BERGUITTA IS NOW FORECASTED TO MOVE CLOSER MAURICE AND REUNION
ISLANDS AS IT DEEPENS. INHABITANTS ARE INVITED TO MONITOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE NEXT DAYS.=

2018-01-15 12:46

WTIO20 FMEE 151241 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/01/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 15/01/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BERGUITTA) 940 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.9 S / 63.0 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
230 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/16 AT 00 UTC:
18.2 S / 62.0 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/01/16 AT 12 UTC:
18.4 S / 60.8 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-01-15 12:46

WTIO20 FMEE 151233
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/01/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 15/01/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BERGUITTA) 940 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.9 S / 63.0 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
230 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/16 AT 00 UTC:
18.2 S / 62.0 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/01/16 AT 12 UTC:
18.4 S / 60.8 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-01-15 12:16

WTIO20 FMEE 151208
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/01/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 15/01/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: 3 (BERGUITTA) 940 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.9 S / 63.0 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: UNDETERMINED

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
230 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.


FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/16 AT 00 UTC:
18.2 S / 62.0 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT,
24H, VALID 2018/01/16 AT 12 UTC:
18.4 S / 60.8 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT,

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-01-15 09:16

WTXS51 PGTW 150900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 180115081704
2018011506 06S BERGUITTA 011 01 360 01 SATL 015
T000 178S 0632E 075 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 195 SE QD
165 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 178S 0625E 085 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 230 SE QD
195 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 179S 0617E 095 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 240 SE QD
205 SW QD 115 NW QD
T036 182S 0608E 100 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 240 SE QD
225 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 187S 0597E 105 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 245 SE QD
230 SW QD 125 NW QD
T072 208S 0567E 100 R064 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 240 SE QD
220 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 238S 0536E 085 R064 035 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 105 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 240 SE QD
220 SW QD 125 NW QD
T120 279S 0511E 070 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
075 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 240 SE QD
200 SW QD 115 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

2018-01-15 09:16

WTXS51 PGTW 150900
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 180115081704
2018011506 06S BERGUITTA 011 01 360 01 SATL 015
T000 178S 0632E 075 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 195 SE QD 165 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 178S 0625E 085 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 230 SE QD 195 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 179S 0617E 095 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 240 SE QD 205 SW QD 115 NW QD
T036 182S 0608E 100 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 240 SE QD 225 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 187S 0597E 105 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 245 SE QD 230 SW QD 125 NW QD
T072 208S 0567E 100 R064 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 240 SE QD 220 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 238S 0536E 085 R064 035 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 105 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 240 SE QD 220 SW QD 125 NW QD
T120 279S 0511E 070 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 240 SE QD 200 SW QD 115 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 17.8S 63.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 63.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.8S 62.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.9S 61.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.2S 60.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 18.7S 59.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 20.8S 56.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 23.8S 53.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 27.9S 51.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 63.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 362 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z.
//
0618011100 130S 679E 15
0618011106 131S 683E 20
0618011112 137S 687E 30
0618011118 146S 690E 30
0618011200 153S 690E 30
0618011206 162S 685E 30
0618011212 168S 676E 30
0618011218 170S 669E 35
0618011300 174S 658E 35
0618011306 176S 651E 40
0618011312 181S 644E 40
0618011318 182S 638E 40
0618011400 182S 634E 50
0618011400 182S 634E 50
0618011406 182S 632E 55
0618011406 182S 632E 55
0618011412 181S 631E 55
0618011412 181S 631E 55
0618011418 180S 631E 55
0618011418 180S 631E 55
0618011500 178S 632E 65
0618011500 178S 632E 65
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011506 178S 632E 75
0618011506 178S 632E 75

2018-01-15 09:16

WTXS31 PGTW 150900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 17.8S 63.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 63.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.8S 62.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-01-15 09:16

WTXS31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 17.8S 63.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 63.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.8S 62.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.9S 61.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.2S 60.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 18.7S 59.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 20.8S 56.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 23.8S 53.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 27.9S 51.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 63.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 362 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS INCREASINGLY WELL
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION, WITH A 10 NM WIDE EYE FEATURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE NEARLY STATIONARY LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE
FEATURE VISIBLE IN MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY. A TIGHT HOOK FEATURE
OBSERVED IN THE 150525Z 89 GHZ METOP-B AMSU SSMIS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 75 KNOTS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.5 TO T5.0 (77 TO 90
KNOTS), FROM PGTW AND KNES RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ALSO SUPPORTED BY A MULTI-PLATFORM SATELLITE WIND ANALYSIS ESTIMATE
OF 75 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TC 06S REMAINS IN
AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND WARM (28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THEY SYSTEM HAS GOOD
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
TAPPING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO WEAK AND
COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTH, AND ANOTHER STR BUILDING OVER EASTERN MADAGASCAR. AFTER TAU
36, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO A
WEAKNESS BEGINS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE TWO SUB-TROPICAL RIDGES.
AROUND TAU 48, THE STR LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST BEGINS TO BUILD AND
TAKES OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST. THE QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) MOTION AND FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 36 AND THE SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY REACH
A PEAK OF 105 KNOTS AROUND TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS VWS INCREASES AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DECREASE. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
AFTER A PERIOD OF QUASI STATIONARY MOTION. DUE TO VARIATIONS IN THE
TIME AND SHARPNESS OF THE TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST THERE IS A FAIRLY
LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL FORECAST TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
PLACED ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE MULTI- MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 150600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z
AND 160900Z.//

2018-01-15 06:16

WTIO20 FMEE 150602
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/01/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 15/01/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8 S / 63.2 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-EAST 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 70 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.


FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/15 AT 18 UTC:
17.8 S / 62.2 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/01/16 AT 06 UTC:
17.8 S / 61.2 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-01-15 03:16

WTXS51 PGTW 150300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 180115020006
2018011500 06S BERGUITTA 010 01 025 02 SATL 030
T000 178S 0632E 065 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 035 NW QD R034
100 NE QD 190 SE QD 160 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 178S 0627E 080 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 230 SE QD
195 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 177S 0619E 090 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 240 SE QD
205 SW QD 115 NW QD
T036 179S 0611E 100 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 240 SE QD
225 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 183S 0600E 100 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 245 SE QD
230 SW QD 125 NW QD
T072 201S 0574E 095 R064 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 240 SE QD
220 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 226S 0540E 085 R064 035 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 105 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 240 SE QD
220 SW QD 125 NW QD
T120 267S 0516E 070 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
075 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 240 SE QD
200 SW QD 115 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

2018-01-15 03:16

WTXS51 PGTW 150300
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 180115020006
2018011500 06S BERGUITTA 010 01 025 02 SATL 030
T000 178S 0632E 065 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 190 SE QD 160 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 178S 0627E 080 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 230 SE QD 195 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 177S 0619E 090 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 240 SE QD 205 SW QD 115 NW QD
T036 179S 0611E 100 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 240 SE QD 225 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 183S 0600E 100 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 245 SE QD 230 SW QD 125 NW QD
T072 201S 0574E 095 R064 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 240 SE QD 220 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 226S 0540E 085 R064 035 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 105 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 240 SE QD 220 SW QD 125 NW QD
T120 267S 0516E 070 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 240 SE QD 200 SW QD 115 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 17.8S 63.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 63.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 17.8S 62.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 17.7S 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 17.9S 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 18.3S 60.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 20.1S 57.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 22.6S 54.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 26.7S 51.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 63.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 362 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z.
//
0618011100 130S 679E 15
0618011106 131S 683E 20
0618011112 137S 687E 30
0618011118 146S 690E 30
0618011200 153S 690E 30
0618011206 162S 685E 30
0618011212 168S 676E 30
0618011218 170S 669E 35
0618011300 174S 658E 35
0618011306 176S 651E 40
0618011312 181S 644E 40
0618011318 182S 638E 40
0618011400 182S 634E 50
0618011400 182S 634E 50
0618011406 182S 632E 55
0618011406 182S 632E 55
0618011412 181S 631E 55
0618011412 181S 631E 55
0618011418 180S 631E 55
0618011418 180S 631E 55
0618011500 178S 632E 65
0618011500 178S 632E 65

2018-01-15 03:16

WTXS31 PGTW 150300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 17.8S 63.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 63.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 17.8S 62.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-01-15 03:16

WTXS31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 17.8S 63.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 63.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 17.8S 62.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 17.7S 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 17.9S 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 18.3S 60.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 20.1S 57.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 22.6S 54.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 26.7S 51.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 63.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 362 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS INCREASINGLY WELL ORGANIZED
DEEP CONVECTION, WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE OBSCURING A
NEARLY STATIONARY LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT
BEST TRACK INDICATES THE LLCC IS DRIFTING SLIGHTLY NORTHEASTWARD,
POSSIBLY INDICATIVE OF A LOOPING MOTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A TIGHT HOOK FEATURE OBSERVED
IN THE 142336Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS RAISED
TO 65 KNOTS BASED ON A RANGE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM T3.5 TO T4.5 (55 TO 77 KNOTS), WITH A MULTI-PLATFORM SATELLITE
WIND ANALYSIS ESTIMATE OF 71 KNOTS. SEVERAL FRAMES OF EIR JUST AFTER
SYNOPTIC TIME SUGGEST AN EYE IS TRYING TO FORM, WHICH WOULD BE IN
LINE WITH THE HIGHER END OF THE INTENSITY RANGE. DVORAK VALUES MAY
BE UNDER ESTIMATED DUE TO THE COMPACT CONVECTIVE CORE, WHICH CAN BE
OBSERVED IN THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS IMAGE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS THAT TC 06S REMAINS IN AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT, NEARLY UNDERNEATH THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS), WARM (28-29 DEGREES
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND ROBUST UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY SLOW, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOOPING OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO THE COMPETING STEERING
INFLUENCES OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH, AND ANOTHER
STR BUILDING OVER EASTERN MADAGASCAR. BEYOND TAU 36, THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A WEAKNESS BEGINS TO
DEVELOP BETWEEN THE TWO SUB-TROPICAL RIDGES. AT THE SAME TIME, A STR
TO THE EAST WILL BUILD AND BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM.
THE QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) MOTION AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE
INTENSITY TREND HAS BEEN MOVED FORWARD IN TIME AND REVISED TO A PEAK
OF 100 KNOTS, GIVEN THE RECENT DATA SUGGESTING RAPID INTENSIFICATION
(RI) MAY BE OCCURRING. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN AVAILABLE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE, WITH THE HWRF MODEL AT THE HIGH END DEVELOPING
BERGUITTA INTO A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE FORECAST
INTENSITY IS PLACED ABOVE THE CONSENSUS REFLECTING THE HWRF. BEYOND
TAU 72, A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
INCREASES AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE. DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD
TO TRACK DIRECTION, PARTICULARLY AFTER THE QS PHASE, HOWEVER TRACK
SPEEDS VARY WIDELY. THE MOGREPS ENSEMBLE REMAINS A NOTABLE OUTLIER,
WITH THE SPREAD OF ALL MEMBERS REMAINING EAST OF MAURITIUS. THE JTWC
TRACK IS PLACED VERY CLOSE TO THE PRIOR FORECAST. DUE TO THE HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM MOTION AND MODEL TRACK
SPEEDS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z.//

2018-01-15 01:46

WTIO31 FMEE 150016

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/3/20172018
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 3 (BERGUITTA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 15/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.9 S / 63.0 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE TROIS DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 983 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :24 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 520 SO: 230 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SO: 170 NO: 70
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 15/01/2018 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 62.3 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 16/01/2018 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 61.3 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 16/01/2018 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 60.2 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 17/01/2018 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 59.0 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 17/01/2018 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 57.7 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 18/01/2018 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 56.1 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 19/01/2018 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 52.6 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
120H: 20/01/2018 00 UTC: 26.6 S / 50.3 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=4.0

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6H, LA CONFIGURATION S'EST AMELIOREE. LE CDO
S'EST DEVELOPPE AVEC DES SOMMETS DES NUAGES QUI RESTENT TRES FROIDS.
LES DONNEES DE LA STATION DE RODRIGUES MONTRENT UNE BAISSE DE LA
PRESSION CORRIGEE DE LA MAREE BAROMETRIQUE ALORS QUE LE SYSTEME EST
RESTE QUASI-STATIONNAIRE. EN FONCTION DE CES ELEMENTS, L'INTENSITE DU
SYSTEME A A TA ELEVE A 55 KT. LES DERNIERES IMAGES INFRA-ROUGES
SEMBLENT MONTRER QUE LE SYSTEME A REPRIS SON DEPLACEMENT VERS LE
NORD-OUEST.

AUJOURD'HUI, LA CELLULE DE HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
SITUA E AU SUD DE MADAGASCAR ET DES MASCAREIGNES COMMENCE A
DEVELOPPER UNE DORSALE VERS L'EST. CETTE DORSALE VA GENERER SUR LE
SYSTEME UN FLUX DIRECTEUR ORIENTE VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST PERMETTANT
AU SYSTEME D'ACCELERER SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI,
LA DORSALE SE RENFORCE VERS LE SUD-EST DU SYSTEME TANDIS QUE LA
CELLULE DE HAUT GEOPOTENTIEL SE DECALE VERS L'EST. LE SYSTEME VA
ALORS ADOPTER PROGRESSIVEMENT UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST SUR
LA FACE NORD-EST DE CETTE DORSALE. LES MODELES SONT MAINTENANT
GLOBALEMENT EN BON ACCORD SUR CE SCENARIO ET ENVISAGENT UN TRANSIT AU
NORD IMMEDIAT DE ARCHIPEL DES MASCAREIGNES.

AVEC LA REPRISE DE SON DEPLACEMENT, BERGUITTA DEVRAIT RETROUVER DES
CONDITIONS OCA ANIQUES FAVORALES. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS
GRADUELLEMENT S'INTENSIFIER BENEFICIANT DE BONNES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES AVEC UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL FAIBLE. LA DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE DEVRAIT S'AMELIORER AVEC LA MISE EN PLACE PROGRESSIVE DE
DEUX CANAUX D'EVACUATION A LA FOIS CA TE POLAIRE ET EQUATORIAL QUI
DEVRAIENT PERMETTRE AU SYSTEME D'ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE MARDI. MAIS A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, EN ENTAMANT SA
DESCENTE VERS LE SUD-OUEST, LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE NORD-EST
DEVRAIT DEVENIR MODERE SUR LA FACE EST DE LA DORSALE DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE QUI SE DEVELOPPE. BERGUITTA EST ALORS PRA VU S'AFFAIBLIR
MAIS CONSERVER LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL LORS DE SON TRANSIT AU
PLUS PRES DES MASCAREIGNES. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, VENDREDI, LA
CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE POURRAIT FAIBLIR, MAIS LA REINTENFICATION
DEVRAIT RESTER LIMITEE PAR UN POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE PLUS FAIBLE AU
SUD DE 22S. COMPTE TENU DE LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME, BERGUITTA
PEUT A TRE SOUMIS A DES VARIATIONS RAPIDES D'INTENSITE.

BERGUITTA EST MAINTENANT PREVU SE RAPPROCHER DE LA REUNION ET DE
MAURICE EN S'INTENSIFIANT. LEURS HABITANTS SONT INVITES A SE TENIR
REGULIEREMENT AU COURANT DE LA SITUATION.=

2018-01-15 01:46

WTIO30 FMEE 150016

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/3/20172018
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/15 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.9 S / 63.0 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL
ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :24 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 520 SW: 230 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 70
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/15 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 62.3 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/01/16 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 61.3 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/01/16 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 60.2 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2018/01/17 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 59.0 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/01/17 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 57.7 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2018/01/18 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 56.1 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/19 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 52.6 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2018/01/20 00 UTC: 26.6 S / 50.3 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED WITH AN EXPANDING
CDO AND VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. DATA FROM GROUND LEVEL OBSERVATION OF
RODRIGUES ISLANDS SHOWS A DECREASE OF THE MSLP WHILE THE SYSTEM IS
QUASI-STATIONARY. ACCORDING WITH THESE ELEMENTS, BERGUITTA INTENSITY
IS RAISED AT 55 KT. LAST INFRARED IMAGERIES INDICATE THAT BERGUITTA
HAS BEGUN AGAIN TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD.


TODAY, THE MID-TROPOSPHERE HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL CELL LOCATED SOUTH OF
MADACASCAR AND MASCARENES ISLANDS BEGINS TO DEVELOP A RIDGE TOWARD
EAST. THIS RIDGE SHOULD GENERATE A WEST-NORTH-WEST STEERING FLOW
ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE ON THIS TRACK. FROM WEDNESDAY, THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN OF THE SYSTEM
WHILE THE HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL CELL SHIFTS EASTWARD. BERGUITTA SHOULD
BEND PROGRESSIVELY SOUTHWESTWARD ON THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE
RIDGE. MODEL GUIDANCE ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO WITH
A TRANSIT CLOSE TO THE NORTH OF REUNION AND MAURICE ISLANDS.

BERGUITTA SHOULD FIND AGAIN FAVOURABLE OCEANIC CONDITIONS AS IT MOVES
AGAIN. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY WITHIN GOOD
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH A WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE SHOULD IMPROVE WITH BOTH POLAR AND EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW
CHANNELS THAT SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO REACH INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE STATUS FROM TUESDAY. FROM WEDNESDAY, WHILE TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARDS, NORTHEASTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS FORESCATED TO
INCREASE AND BECOME MODERATE OVER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE. SO BERGUITTA IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS IN THE VICINITY OF MAURICE AND REUNION
ISLANDS. AT LONG RANGE, ON FRIDAY, THE UPPER CONSTRAINT MIGHT DECAY,
BUT REINTENFICATION SHOULD BE LIMITED BY A DECREASING OHC SOUTH OF
22S. BERGUITTA WITH THIS SMALL SIZE IS LIKELY EXPERIENCE RAPID
INTENSITY CHANGE.

BERGUITTA IS NOW FORECASTED TO MOVE CLOSER MAURICE AND REUNION
ISLANDS AS IT DEEPENS. INHABITANTS ARE INVITED TO MONITOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE NEXT DAYS.=

2018-01-15 00:16

WTIO20 FMEE 150006
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/01/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 15/01/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA) 983 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.9 S / 63.0 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING TO 250
MN WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 125 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 280 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/15 AT 12 UTC:
17.8 S / 62.3 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/01/16 AT 00 UTC:
17.8 S / 61.3 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-01-14 21:31

WTXS51 PGTW 142100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 180114202026
2018011418 06S BERGUITTA 009 02 360 01 SATL 040
T000 180S 0631E 055 R050 040 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD R034
085 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 178S 0628E 065 R050 020 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
125 NE QD 245 SE QD 205 SW QD 115 NW QD
T024 177S 0621E 075 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
035 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 235 SE QD
220 SW QD 115 NW QD
T036 177S 0613E 085 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 240 SE QD
225 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 182S 0604E 095 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 060 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 270 SE QD
250 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 199S 0580E 095 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 095 SE QD 095 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 300 SE QD
255 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 222S 0548E 090 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 255 SE QD
250 SW QD 145 NW QD
T120 256S 0521E 080 R064 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
100 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 295 SE QD
240 SW QD 150 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 18.0S 63.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS

2018-01-14 21:31

WTXS51 PGTW 142100
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 180114202026
2018011418 06S BERGUITTA 009 02 360 01 SATL 040
T000 180S 0631E 055 R050 040 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 178S 0628E 065 R050 020 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 245 SE QD 205 SW QD 115 NW QD
T024 177S 0621E 075 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 235 SE QD 220 SW QD 115 NW QD
T036 177S 0613E 085 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 240 SE QD 225 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 182S 0604E 095 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 270 SE QD 250 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 199S 0580E 095 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 095 SE QD 095 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 300 SE QD 255 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 222S 0548E 090 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 255 SE QD 250 SW QD 145 NW QD
T120 256S 0521E 080 R064 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 295 SE QD 240 SW QD 150 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 18.0S 63.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 63.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.8S 62.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.7S 62.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.7S 61.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.2S 60.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 19.9S 58.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 22.2S 54.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 25.6S 52.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 63.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 352 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND 152100Z.
//
0618011100 130S 679E 15
0618011106 131S 683E 20
0618011112 137S 687E 30
0618011118 146S 690E 30
0618011200 153S 690E 30
0618011206 162S 685E 30
0618011212 168S 676E 30
0618011218 170S 669E 35
0618011300 174S 658E 35
0618011306 176S 651E 40
0618011312 181S 644E 40
0618011318 182S 638E 40
0618011400 182S 634E 50
0618011400 182S 634E 50
0618011406 182S 632E 55
0618011406 182S 632E 55
0618011412 181S 631E 55
0618011412 181S 631E 55
0618011418 180S 631E 55
0618011418 180S 631E 55

2018-01-14 21:31

WTXS31 PGTW 142100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 18.0S 63.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 63.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.8S 62.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-01-14 21:16

WTXS31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 18.0S 63.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 63.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.8S 62.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.7S 62.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.7S 61.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 18.2S 60.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 19.9S 58.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 22.2S 54.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 25.6S 52.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 63.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 352 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS PULSATING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A
NEARLY STATIONARY LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT
BEST TRACK INDICATES THE LLCC IS DRIFTING SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 141719Z
AMSU 89 GHZ PASS, REVEALING A DEFINED CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION
AROUND THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS
BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM
ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TC 06S
IS IN AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, NEARLY UNDERNEATH
THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO
10 KNOTS), WARM (28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
AND ROBUST UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. BERGUITTA HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD
MOTION AS RIDGING HAS BEGUN TO BUILD OVER EASTERN MADAGASCAR. MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY SLOW, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LOOPING
OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS DUE TO COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES.
BEYOND TAU 48, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHWEST
AS A WEAKNESS IN THE STR TO THE WEST AND SOUTH BEGINS TO DEVELOP. AT
THE SAME TIME, A BUILDING STR TO THE EAST BECOMES THE DOMINANT
STEERING MECHANISM. GIVEN THE VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE
LIMITING FACTOR FOR DEVELOPMENT UP TO THIS POINT HAS BEEN THE POORLY
DEFINED LLCC. HOWEVER, THE QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) MOTION SHOULD ALLOW
THE LLCC TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TAU 72. THE SMALL SIZE AND SLOW MOTION
OF BERGUITTA MAY MAKE RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) POSSIBLE, HOWEVER,
AT THIS TIME THE AVAILABLE RI GUIDANCE IS NEUTRAL. THEREFORE, TC 06S
IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48, PEAKING AT 95
KNOTS. BEYOND TAU 72, SLIGHT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR INCREASES AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES MODERATE. DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
REGARD TO TRACK DIRECTION, PARTICULARLY AFTER THE QS PHASE. THE
NOTABLE OUTLIER IS THE MOGREPS ENSEMBLE, WITH THE SPREAD OF ALL
MEMBERS REMAINING EAST OF MAURITIUS. THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED VERY
CLOSE TO THE PRIOR FORECAST. DUE TO THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THE SHORT TERM MOTION, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 22
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND 152100Z.//

2018-01-14 18:46

WTIO31 FMEE 141814

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/3/20172018
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 3 (BERGUITTA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 14/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.1 S / 63.1 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE TROIS DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :24 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 160 SE: 190 SO: 230 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 150 NO: 70
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 0 / 0 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 15/01/2018 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 62.3 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 15/01/2018 18 UTC: 17.7 S / 61.3 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 16/01/2018 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 16/01/2018 18 UTC: 17.7 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 17/01/2018 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 17/01/2018 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 56.9 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 18/01/2018 18 UTC: 21.9 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
120H: 19/01/2018 18 UTC: 25.8 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=3.5

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6H, DES POUSSEES DE CONVECTION ONT CONTINUE DE
SE PRODUIRE PRES DU CENTRE AVEC DES SOMMETS TRES FROIDS. LE CDO DE
CONVECTION RESTE CEPENDANT DE PETITE TAILLE. DEPUIS 1200Z, LES
ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES D'INTENSITE (ADT DU CIMSS) N'ONT PAS EVOLUA
INDIQUANT UN PALIER DANS L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME. BERGUITTA EN
RESTANT STATIONNAIRE DEPUIS PRA S DE 18 HEURES COMMENCE A EPUISER LE
CONTENU ENERGETIQUE DES EAUX SOUS-JACENTES. CEPENDANT, L'IMAGE
MICRO-ONDE SSMIS 37 GHZ DE 1446Z MONTRE UN ANNEAU DE CONVECTION DE
COULEUR CYAN QUI PEUT INDIQUER LE DEMARAGE D'UNE NOUVELLE PHASE
D'INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE UNE FOIS QUE LE SYSTEME AURA REPRIS SON
DEPLACEMENT.

AUJOURD'HUI, LE SYSTEME EST RESTE QUASI-STATIONNAIRE ENVIRON 180 KM
AU NORD DE RODRIQUES ALORS QU'IL BUTE CONTRE UNE PUISSANTE DORSALE DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI S'ETABLIT DEPUIS LE SUD DE MADAGASCAR. CETTE
NUIT, LES MODELES NUMERIQUES SONT EN BON ACCORD POUR PROPOSER UNE
REPRISE D'UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST SUR LA FACE
NORD-EST DE LA DORSALE. A PARTIR DE MARDI AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE
LA DORSALE AU SUD, UN RECOURBEMENT PROGRESSIF VERS LE SUD-OUEST EST
ATTENDU. LES DIFFERENTS SCENARIOS SEMBLENT COMMENCER A CONVERGER, ET
LA DISPERSION DE L'ENSEMBLE EUROPEEN EST EN BAISSE. MAIS IL Y A
ENCORE DE L'INCERTITUDE, AVEC DES ECARTS DANS LES VITESSES DE
DEPLACEMENT PREVUES DURANT LES PREMIERES ECHEANCES. CELA INDUIT DONC
UNE INCERTITUDE SUR LE TIMING DE LA MENACE POTENTIELLE SUR LES A LES
DE L'ARCHIPEL DES MASCAREIGNES. LA PREVISION OFFICIELLE DU CMRS EST
BASEE SUR UN CONSENSUS DES MODELES GFS ET CEP.

AVEC LA REPRISE DU MOUVEMENT, BERGUITTA DEVRAIT RETROUVER DES
CONDITIONS OCA ANIQUES FAVORALES. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT GRADUELLEMENT
S'INTENSIFIER DANS DE BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES, SOUS LA
DORSALE D'ALTITUDE AVEC PAR CONSEQUENT UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE
VENT FAIBLE. A COURT TERME, LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE DEVRAIT
S'AMELIORER AVEC LA MISE EN PLACE PROGRESSIVE DE DEUX CANAUX
D'EVACUATION A LA FOIS CA TE POLAIRE ET EQUATORIAL. BERGUITTA EST
PREVU ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE MARDI. MAIS A
PARTIR DE MERCREDI, EN ENTAMANT SA DESCENTE VERS LE SUD-OUEST, LE
SYSTEME POURRAIT SUBIR UNE CONTRAINTE MODEREE DE NORD-EST SUR LA
BORDURE EST DE LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE VENDREDI, LA
CONTRAINTE POURRAIT FAIBLIR, PERMETTANT A BERGUITTA DE SE
REINTENSIFIER MAIS AVEC UN POTENTIEL OCA ANIQUE PLUS FAIBLE AU SUD DE
22S. COMPTE TENU DE LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME, BERGUITTA PEUT A TRE
SOUMIS A DES VARIATIONS RAPIDES D'INTENSITE.

A PARTIR DE DEMAIN, BERGUITTA DEVRAIT DONC DEVENIR UN SYSTEME MATURE
ET DANGEREUX, EVOLUANT A PROXIMITA DES MASCAREIGNES. LEURS HABITANTS
SONT INVITES A SE TENIR REGULIEREMENT AU COURANT DE LA SITUATION.=

2018-01-14 18:46

WTIO30 FMEE 141814

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/3/20172018
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/14 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1 S / 63.1 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL
ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :24 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 160 SE: 190 SW: 230 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 70
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 0 / 0 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/15 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 62.3 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/01/15 18 UTC: 17.7 S / 61.3 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/01/16 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 60.3 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/01/16 18 UTC: 17.7 S / 59.3 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2018/01/17 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 58.4 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2018/01/17 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 56.9 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/18 18 UTC: 21.9 S / 53.0 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2018/01/19 18 UTC: 25.8 S / 50.6 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE BURSTS KEEP ON OCCURRING NEAR THE
CENTRE, WITH VERY COLD TOPS. YET, THE CDO IS STILL RATHER SMALL.
SINCE 1200Z, OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT TECHNICAL (ADT FROM
CIMSS) SHOWS A STAGE IN BERGUITTA INTENSIFICATION. THE QUASI
STATIONARY SYSTEM BEGINS TO RUN OUT OF THE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT.
HOWEVER, 1446Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS A CYAN RING OF
CONVECTION THAT COULD INDICATE THE BEGINNING OF A NEW PHASE OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AGAIN.

THE SYSTEM IS STILL LINGERING APPROXIMATELY 180 KM NORTH OF RODRIGUES
ISLAND AS IT BUMPS INTO A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING UP FROM THE SOUTH OF
MADAGASCAR. THIS NIGHT, MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN A GOOD AGREEMENT TO
SUGGEST THAT BERGUITTA SHOULD TAKE ON NORTHWESTWARDTRACK ON THE
NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE. FROM TUESDAY, IT IS EXPECTED THEN TO
BEND PROGRESSIVELY TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE
RIDGE. A GLOBAL CONSENSUS IS BEGINNING TO APPEAR IN THE GUIDANCE, AND
THE EUROPEAN EPS DISPERSION IS DECAYING. BUT THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK SPEED AT SHORT RANGE. IT INDUCES AN
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE TIMING OF THE POTENTIAL THREAT OVER MASCARENES
ISLANDS. THIS ADVISORY IS BASED ON A MEAN SCENARIO BETWEEN ECMWF AND
GFS.

BERGUITTA SHOULD FIND AGAIN FAVOURABLE OCEANIC CONDITIONS AS IT MOVES
AGAIN. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY WITHIN GOOD
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, THUS WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND WINDSHEAR. AT SHORT RANGE, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
SHOULD IMPROVE WITH BOTH POLAR AND EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS,
PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE BERGUITTA IS EXPECTED TO REACH
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS. FROM WEDNESDAY, WHILE TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARDS, IT MAY UNDERGO A MODERATE UPPER CONSTRAINT, ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. AT LONG RANGE, ON FRIDAY,
THE UPPER CONSTRAINT MIGHT DECAY, ALLOWING BERGUITTA TO RE-INTENSIFY
AGAIN ALTHOUGH THE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT BEGINS TO DECREASE SOUTH OF
22S. BERGUITTA WITH THIS SMALL SIZE IS LIKELY EXPERIENCE RAPID
INTENSITY CHANGE.

FROM TODAY, A MATURE AND DANGEROUS SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK IN THE
VICINITY OF MASCARENES ISLANDS. INHABITANTS ARE INVITED TO MONITOR
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE NEXT DAYS.=

2018-01-14 18:16

WTIO20 FMEE 141803
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/01/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 14/01/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1 S / 63.1 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 125 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/15 AT 06 UTC:
17.7 S / 62.3 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/15 AT 18 UTC:
17.7 S / 61.3 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-01-14 14:46

WTXS51 PGTW 141500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 180114133554
2018011412 06S BERGUITTA 008 02 270 01 SATL 030
T000 181S 0629E 055 R050 035 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 025 NW QD R034
075 NE QD 120 SE QD 135 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 179S 0626E 060 R050 020 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
125 NE QD 245 SE QD 205 SW QD 115 NW QD
T024 178S 0622E 070 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
035 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 235 SE QD
220 SW QD 115 NW QD
T036 178S 0616E 080 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 240 SE QD
225 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 180S 0609E 090 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 060 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 270 SE QD
250 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 193S 0588E 095 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 095 SE QD 095 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 300 SE QD
255 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 215S 0557E 090 R064 045 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 255 SE QD
250 SW QD 145 NW QD
T120 242S 0530E 080 R064 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
100 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 295 SE QD
240 SW QD 150 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 18.1S 62.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS

2018-01-14 14:31

WTXS51 PGTW 141500
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 180114133554
2018011412 06S BERGUITTA 008 02 270 01 SATL 030
T000 181S 0629E 055 R050 035 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 120 SE QD 135 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 179S 0626E 060 R050 020 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 245 SE QD 205 SW QD 115 NW QD
T024 178S 0622E 070 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 235 SE QD 220 SW QD 115 NW QD
T036 178S 0616E 080 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 240 SE QD 225 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 180S 0609E 090 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 270 SE QD 250 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 193S 0588E 095 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 095 SE QD 095 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 300 SE QD 255 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 215S 0557E 090 R064 045 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 255 SE QD 250 SW QD 145 NW QD
T120 242S 0530E 080 R064 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 295 SE QD 240 SW QD 150 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 18.1S 62.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 62.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 17.9S 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 17.8S 62.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 17.8S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 18.0S 60.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.3S 58.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 21.5S 55.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 24.2S 53.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 62.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 339 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z.
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0618011100 130S 679E 15
0618011106 131S 683E 20
0618011112 137S 687E 30
0618011118 146S 690E 30
0618011200 153S 690E 30
0618011206 162S 685E 30
0618011212 168S 676E 30
0618011218 170S 669E 35
0618011300 174S 658E 35
0618011306 176S 651E 40
0618011312 181S 644E 40
0618011318 182S 638E 40
0618011400 182S 634E 50
0618011400 182S 634E 50
0618011406 181S 630E 55
0618011406 181S 630E 55
0618011412 181S 629E 55
0618011412 181S 629E 55

2018-01-14 14:31

WTXS31 PGTW 141500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 18.1S 62.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 62.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 17.9S 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-01-14 14:31

WTXS31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 18.1S 62.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 62.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 17.9S 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 17.8S 62.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 17.8S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 18.0S 60.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.3S 58.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 21.5S 55.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 24.2S 53.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 62.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 339 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI-SPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION
WRAPPING INTO A SMALL AREA OF CENTRALLY LOCATED CONVECTION THAT IS
OCCLUDING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM HAS
BEEN QUASI STATIONARY FOR THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MULTI-SPECTRAL ANIMATED
LOOP AND A 141043Z 37GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE AFOREMENTIONED
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED
PREDOMINANTLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH BANDING WRAPPING IN
FROM THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS
BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55
KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES AND IS SUPPORTED BY A RECENT SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 55 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TC 06S IS
IN AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND WARM (28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS WITH THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
TAPPING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC 06S HAS BEEN QUASI
STATIONARY DUE TO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 36
HOURS. AFTER TAU 36, A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THAT IS BUILDING TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR TAKES OVER AS THE DOMINANT STEERING
FEATURE. AS THE STR TRANSITS TO THE EAST, THE SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE
NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR AND BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TO THE
SOUTHWEST. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72,
PEAKING AT 95 KNOTS, UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND
WITH THE HELP OF THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL BEING ENHANCED BY THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM BEGINS A WEAKENING
TREND AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE AS VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR INCREASES AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK THROUGH TAU 24.
THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER TAU 24 AS THE SOLUTIONS VARY ON
THE SPEED AND TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER TAU 36, THE
MODELS AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST HOWEVER,
THE INITIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST LEAD TO LARGE
VARIATIONS IN BOTH ALONG TRACK AND CROSS TRACK DIMENSIONS. THE JTWC
TRACK IS PLACED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE
HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL
LOW CONFIDENCE IN JTWC FORECAST TRACK MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z,
150900Z AND 151500Z.//

2018-01-14 13:46

WTIO31 FMEE 141237

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/3/20172018
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 3 (BERGUITTA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 14/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.1 S / 63.2 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE TROIS DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :24 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 160 SE: 190 SO: 230 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 150 NO: 70
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1003 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 15/01/2018 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 15/01/2018 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 62.3 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 16/01/2018 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 61.1 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 16/01/2018 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 60.2 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 17/01/2018 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 59.2 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 17/01/2018 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 57.9 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 18/01/2018 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 54.6 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
120H: 19/01/2018 12 UTC: 23.7 S / 51.9 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=3.5

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6H, DES POUSSEES DE CONVECTION ONT CONTINUE DE
SE PRODUIRE PRES DU CENTRE AVEC DES SOMMETS TRES FROIDS. LE CDO DE
CONVECTION RESTE CEPENDANT DE PETITE TAILLE, PROBABLEMENT A CAUSE
D'UNE BANDE D'AIR SEC QUI S'ENROULE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST. EN
IMAGES MICRO-ONDES, LA PASSE AMSR2 DE 0752 ET SSMI DE 1043Z MONTRENT
AU COEUR DE LA MASSE NUAGEUSE, LA PRESENCE D'UN OEIL ENTOURE D'UNE
ETROITE BANDE INCURVEE S'ENROULANT AUTOUR. CETTE STRUCTURE PLAIDE
POUR UNE POURSUITE DU CREUSEMENT, AVEC UN FORT GRADIENT DANS LE COEUR
DE LA CIRCULATION. L'INTENSITE EST DONC ESTIMEE A 50KT EN ACCORD AVEC
LES ESTIMATIONS DVORAK.

LE SYSTEME CONTINUE DE STAGNER AU NORD DE RODRIGUES, APRES AVOIR
RALENTI CETTE NUIT, ALORS QU'IL BUTE CONTRE UNE PUISSANTE DORSALE DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI S'ETABLIT DEPUIS LE SUD DE MADAGASCAR. LES
MODELES NUMERIQUES SONT EN BON ACCORD POUR PROPOSER UNE REPRISE D'UNE
TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD-EST DE LA
DORSALE. A PARTIR DE MARDI AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA DORSALE AU
SUD, UN RECOURBEMENT PROGRESSIF VERS LE SUD-OUEST EST ATTENDU. LES
DIFFERENTS SCENARIOS SEMBLENT COMMENCER A CONVERGER, ET LA DISPERSION
DE L'ENSEMBLE EUROPEEN EST EN BAISSE. MAIS IL Y A ENCORE DE
L'INCERTITUDE, AVEC DES ECARTS DANS LES VITESSES DE DEPLACEMENT
PREVUES DURANT LES PREMIERES ECHEANCES. CELA INDUIT DONC UNE
INCERTITUDE SUR LE TIMING DE LA MENACE POTENTIELLE SUR LES A LES DE
L'ARCHIPEL DES MASCAREIGNES. LA PREVISION OFFICIELLE DU CMRS EST
BASEE SUR UNE CONSENSUS DES PRINCIPAUX MODELES AMERICAINS ET
EUROPEENS DISPONIBLES.

LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT GRADUELLEMENT S'INTENSIFIER DANS DE BONNES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES, SOUS LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE AVEC PAR
CONSEQUENT UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT FAIBLE. A COURT TERME, LA
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE DEVRAIT S'AMELIORER NOTAMMENT MARDI AVEC LA
MISE EN PLACE PROGRESSIVE DE DEUX CANAUX D'EVACUATION A LA FOIS CA
TE POLAIRE ET EQUATORIAL. LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE ETANT EGALEMENT
FAVORABLE, BERGUITTA EST PREVU ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL
INTENSE. MAIS A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, EN ENTAMANT SA DESCENTE VERS LE
SUD-OUEST, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT SUBIR UNE CONTRAINTE FAIBLE A MODEREE
DE NORD-EST EN MARGE DE LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE SE RECONSTRUISANT A
L'EST. RENFORCE PAR LA PRESENCE D'AIR SEC A PROXIMITE ET PAR LA
PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME, UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT EST PROBABLE. EN FIN
D'ECHEANCE VENDREDI, LA CONTRAINTE POURRAIT EVENTUELLEMENT FAIBLIR,
PERMETTANT ALORS UN ARRET DU COMBLEMENT DE BERGUITTA. CETTE PREVISION
D'INTENSITE EST ENCORE TRES INCERTAINE ET DEPENDRA FORTEMENT DE
L'EVOLUTION DE LA TEMPETE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES HEURES.

A PARTIR DE LA SEMAINE PROCHAINE, BERGUITTA DEVRAIT DONC DEVENIR UN
SYSTEME MATURE ET DANGEREUX, EVOLUANT A PROXIMITA DES MASCAREIGNES.
LEURS HABITANTS SONT INVITES A SE TENIR REGULIEREMENT AU COURANT DE
LA SITUATION.=

2018-01-14 13:46

WTIO30 FMEE 141237

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/3/20172018
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/14 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1 S / 63.2 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL
TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :24 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 160 SE: 190 SW: 230 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 70
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/15 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 63.1 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/01/15 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 62.3 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/01/16 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 61.1 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/01/16 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 60.2 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2018/01/17 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 59.2 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2018/01/17 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 57.9 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/18 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 54.6 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/01/19 12 UTC: 23.7 S / 51.9 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE BURSTS KEEP ON OCCURRING NEAR THE
CENTER, WITH VERY COLD TOPS. YET, THE CDO IS STILL RATHER SMALL,
PROBABLY BECAUSE OF A DRY AIR MASS WRAPPING IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY, 0752Z AMSR2 AND 1043Z SSMI, SHOW
WITHIN THE CLOUD PATTERN, AN EYE SURROUNDED BY A NARROW CURVED BAND
WRAPPING AROUND. THIS STRUCTURE SUGGESTS THE CONTINUATION OF THE
DEEPENING, WITH A STEEP GRADIENT IN THE INNER CORE. INTENSITY IS THUS
UPGRADED TO 50KT IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES.

THE SYSTEM IS STILL LINGERING NORTH OF RODRIGUES ISLAND AFTER SLOWING
DOWN LAST NIGHT, AS IT BUMPS INTO A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING UP FROM THE
SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN A GOOD AGREEMENT TO SUGGEST
THAT BERGUITTA SHOULD TAKE ON NORTHWESTWARDTRACK ON THE NORTHEASTERN
SIDE OF THE RIDGE. FROM TUESDAY, IT IS EXPECTED THEN TO BEND
PROGRESSIVELY TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE.
A GLOBAL CONSENSUS IS BEGINNING TO APPEAR IN THE GUIDANCE, AND THE
EUROPEAN EPS DISPERSION IS DECAYING. BUT THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY
ON THE TRACK SPEED AT SHORT RANGE. IT INDUCES AN UNCERTAINTY OVER THE
TIMING OF THE POTENTIAL THREAT OVER MASCARENES ISLANDS. THIS ADVISORY
IS BASED ON A MEAN SCENARIO BETWEEN MAIN AMERICAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS
AVAILABLE.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY WITHIN GOOD
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, THUS WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND WINDSHEAR. AT SHORT RANGE, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
SHOULD IMPROVE WITH BOTH POLAR AND EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS,
PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY. OCEANIC POTENTIAL IS ALSO CONDUCIVE,
THEREFORE BERGUITTA IS EXPECTED TO REACH INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
STATUS. FROM WEDNESDAY, WHILE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS, IT MAY UNDERGO
A SLIGHT TO MODERATE UPPER CONSTRAINT, ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. BECAUSE OF THE PRESENCE OF A DRY AIR MASS IN
THE VICINITY AND THE SYSTEM SMALL SIZE, A WEAKENING MAY HAPPEN. AT
LONG RANGE, ON FRIDAY, THE UPPER CONSTRAINT MIGHT DECAY, ALLOWING THE
STOP OF BERGUITTA FILLING UP. THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY
UNCERTAIN AND WILL MOSTLY DEPEND ON THE NEXT HOURS STORM EVOLUTION

NEXT WEEK, A MATURE AND DANGEROUS SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK IN THE VICINITY
OF MASCARENES ISLANDS. INHABITANTS ARE INVITED TO MONITOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE NEXT DAYS.=

2018-01-14 12:31

WTIO20 FMEE 141223
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/01/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 14/01/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1 S / 63.2 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 125 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/15 AT 00 UTC:
18.0 S / 63.1 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/15 AT 12 UTC:
17.8 S / 62.3 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-01-14 09:16

WTXS51 PGTW 140900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 180114075546
2018011406 06S BERGUITTA 007 02 285 04 SATL 035
T000 181S 0630E 055 R050 035 NE QD 055 SE QD 075 SW QD 025 NW QD R034
080 NE QD 115 SE QD 140 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 179S 0628E 060 R050 030 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
110 NE QD 230 SE QD 205 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 177S 0624E 070 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 235 SE QD
210 SW QD 115 NW QD
T036 176S 0620E 075 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 095 SE QD 075 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 230 SE QD
215 SW QD 115 NW QD
T048 177S 0612E 085 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 225 SE QD
220 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 186S 0595E 090 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 100 SE QD 095 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 295 SE QD
255 SW QD 145 NW QD
T096 205S 0568E 085 R064 035 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 115 SE QD 105 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 270 SE QD
250 SW QD 155 NW QD
T120 230S 0539E 075 R064 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD R050
085 NE QD 120 SE QD 115 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 255 SE QD
240 SW QD 160 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 18.1S 63.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS

2018-01-14 09:16

WTXS51 PGTW 140900
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 180114075546
2018011406 06S BERGUITTA 007 02 285 04 SATL 035
T000 181S 0630E 055 R050 035 NE QD 055 SE QD 075 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 115 SE QD 140 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 179S 0628E 060 R050 030 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 230 SE QD 205 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 177S 0624E 070 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 235 SE QD 210 SW QD 115 NW QD
T036 176S 0620E 075 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 095 SE QD 075 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 230 SE QD 215 SW QD 115 NW QD
T048 177S 0612E 085 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 225 SE QD 220 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 186S 0595E 090 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 100 SE QD 095 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 295 SE QD 255 SW QD 145 NW QD
T096 205S 0568E 085 R064 035 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 115 SE QD 105 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 270 SE QD 250 SW QD 155 NW QD
T120 230S 0539E 075 R064 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 120 SE QD 115 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 255 SE QD 240 SW QD 160 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 18.1S 63.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 63.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 17.9S 62.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.7S 62.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.6S 62.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.7S 61.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 18.6S 59.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 20.5S 56.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 23.0S 53.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 62.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0618011100 130S 679E 15
0618011106 131S 683E 20
0618011112 137S 687E 30
0618011118 146S 690E 30
0618011200 153S 690E 30
0618011206 162S 685E 30
0618011212 168S 676E 30
0618011218 170S 669E 35
0618011300 174S 658E 35
0618011306 176S 651E 40
0618011312 181S 644E 40
0618011318 182S 638E 40
0618011400 182S 634E 50
0618011400 182S 634E 50
0618011406 181S 630E 55
0618011406 181S 630E 55

2018-01-14 09:16

WTXS31 PGTW 140900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 18.1S 63.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 63.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 17.9S 62.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-01-14 09:16

WTXS31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 18.1S 63.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 63.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 17.9S 62.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.7S 62.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.6S 62.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.7S 61.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 18.6S 59.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 20.5S 56.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 23.0S 53.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 62.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS TWO POCKETS OF
DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER AND OCCLUDING THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 140449Z 89GHZ METOP-A AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE
WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A FORMATIVE MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND
KNES AND IS SUPPORTED BY A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 52 KNOTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA FAVORABLE
FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10
KNOTS) AND WARM (28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A POINT SOURCE LOCATED OVER THE SYSTEM AND TC 06S
CURRENTLY HAS WELL ORGANIZED ALBEIT WEAK POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNELS. THE WEAK NATURE OF THE OUTFLOW CHANNELS ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO THE SYSTEMS SLOW INTENSIFICATION TREND DESPITE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. TC 06S CONTINUES TO TRACK SLOWLY DUE TO THE
LACK OF A DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, A BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED THE SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR CAUSES
THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE TO THE WEST. AS THE STR TRACKS TO THE EAST
THE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT TRACK DIRECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
ACCELERATE AND STEADILY ACCELERATE. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY
INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72 DUE TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TAPPING INTO MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK OF 90 KNOTS AROUND TAU 72 BEFORE
IT BEGINS A WEAKENING TREND AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS
FAVORABLE DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK THROUGH TAU 36 WITH SOME VARIATION IN THE
SPEED AND TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER TAU 36, THE
MODELS SPREAD SIGNIFICANTLY IN BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTION LENDING TO A
HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTIES IN THE LATER TAUS. THE JTWC TRACK IS
PLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 140600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z
AND 150900Z.//

2018-01-14 07:16

WTIO31 FMEE 140628

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/3/20172018
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 3 (BERGUITTA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 14/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.0 S / 63.1 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE TROIS DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-OUEST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 991 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 160 SE: 190 SO: 230 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 140 NO: 70



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 14/01/2018 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 15/01/2018 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 15/01/2018 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 16/01/2018 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 16/01/2018 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX=100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 17/01/2018 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX=110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 18/01/2018 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 56.2 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
120H: 19/01/2018 06 UTC: 22.2 S / 53.2 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=3.5-

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6H, LES POUSSEES DE CONVECTION SE SONT
CONCENTREES A PROXIMITE DU CENTRE. L'ENROULEMENT EST BEAUCOUP PLUS
NET SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES VISIBLES. LES PASSES SSMIS DE CE MATIN
NOTAMMENT LA F17 DE 0212Z CONFIRMENT LA CONSOLIDATION DE LA
CIRCULATION INTERNE AUTOUR DU CENTRE. L'INTENSITE EST DONC ESTIMEE A
45KT EN ACCORD AVEC LES ESTIMATIONS DVORAK.

LE SYSTEME SEMBLE, APRES AVOIR RALENTI CETTE NUIT, ET AVOIR
LEGEREMENT REDRESSE SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE NORD-OUEST, ALORS QU'IL
BUTE CONTRE UNE PUISSANTE DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI
S'ETABLIT DEPUIS LE SUD DE MADAGASCAR. LES MODELES NUMERIQUES SONT EN
BON ACCORD POUR PROPOSER UNE POURSUITE DE CETTE REMONTEE VERS LE
NORD-OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD-EST DE LA DORSALE. A PARTIR DE MARDI AVEC
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA DORSALE AU SUD, UN RECOURBEMENT PROGRESSIF
VERS LE SUD-OUEST EST ATTENDU. LES DIFFERENTS SCENARIOS SEMBLENT
COMMENCER A CONVERGER MAIS IL Y A ENCORE DE L'INCERTITUDE SUR LE
TIMING EXACTE DE CE CHANGEMENT DE TRAJECTOIRE. LA FAIBLE
PREVISIBILITE DES PREMIERES ECHEANCES INDUIT DONC UNE FORTE
INCERTITUDE SUR LE TIMING ET LE NIVEAU DE LA MENACE POTENTIELLE SUR
LES A LES DE L'ARCHIPEL DES MASCAREIGNES. LA PREVISION OFFICIELLE DU
CMRS EST BASEE SUR UNE CONSENSUS DES PRINCIPAUX MODELES AMERICAINS ET
EUROPEENS DISPONIBLES.

LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT GRADUELLEMENT S'INTENSIFIER DANS DE TRES BONNES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES, SOUS LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE AVEC PAR
CONSEQUENT UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT FAIBLE. A COURT TERME, LA
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE DEVRAIT S'AMELIORER NOTAMMENT MARDI AVEC LA
MISE EN PLACE PROGRESSIVE DE DEUX CANAUX D'EVACUATION A LA FOIS CA
TE POLAIRE ET EQUATORIAL. LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE ETANT EGALEMENT
FAVORABLE, BERGUITTA EST PREVU ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL
INTENSE. MAIS A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, EN ENTAMANT SA DESCENTE VERS LE
SUD-OUEST, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT SUBIR UNE CONTRAINTE FAIBLE A MODEREE
DE NORD-EST EN MARGE DE LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE SE RECONSTRUISANT A
L'EST. LE SYSTEME POURRAIT ALORS S'AFFAIBLIR

A PARTIR DE LA SEMAINE PROCHAINE, BERGUITTA DEVRAIT DONC DEVENIR UN
SYSTEME MATURE ET EVOLUER A PROXIMITA DES MASCAREIGNES. LEURS
HABITANTS SONT INVITES A SE TENIR REGULIEREMENT AU COURANT DE LA
SITUATION.=

2018-01-14 07:16

WTIO30 FMEE 140628

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/3/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/14 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.0 S / 63.1 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL
ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : NORTH-WEST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 160 SE: 190 SW: 230 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 140 NW: 70



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/14 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 63.0 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/01/15 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 62.4 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/01/15 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 61.5 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/01/16 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 60.3 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/01/16 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 59.7 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2018/01/17 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 59.1 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/18 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 56.2 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2018/01/19 06 UTC: 22.2 S / 53.2 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTIVE BURSTS WERE MOSTLY FOCUSED
NEAR THE CENTER. THE VORTICITY IS QUITE CLEAR ON THE LAST VISIBLE
IMAGERY. LAST MICROWAVE SSMIS DATA ESPECIALLY 0212Z F17, CONFIRM THE
CONSOLIDATION OF THE INNER CORE. INTENSITY IS THUS UPGRADED TO 45KT
IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES.

THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO HAVE SLIGHTLY TURNED NORTHWESTWARD AFTER SLOWING
DOWN, AS IT BUMPS INTO A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING UP FROM THE SOUTH OF
MADAGASCAR. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN A GOOD AGREEMENT TO SUGGEST THAT
BERGUITTA SHOULD KEEP THIS DIRECTION ON THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE
RIDGE. FROM TUESDAY, IT IS EXPECTED THEN TO BEND PROGRESSIVELY
TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE. A GLOBAL
CONSENSUS IS BEGINNING TO APPEAR IN THE GUIDANCE, BUT THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK CHANGE TIMING. LOW PREDICTABILITY DURING THE
FIRST RANGES INDUCES AN UNCERTAINTY OVER THE TIMING AND THE INTENSITY
OF THE POTENTIAL THREAT OVER MASCARENES ISLANDS. THIS ADVISORY IS
BASED ON A MEAN SCENARIO BETWEEN MAIN AMERICAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS
AVAILABLE.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY WITHIN VERY GOOD
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, THUS WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND WINDSHEAR. AT SHORT RANGE, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
SHOULD IMPROVE WITH BOTH POLAR AND EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS,
PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY. OCEANIC POTENTIAL IS ALSO CONDUCIVE,
THEREFORE BERGUITTA IS EXPECTED TO REACH INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
STATUS. FROM WEDNESDAY, WHILE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS, IT MAY UNDERGO
A SLIGHT TO MODERATE UPPER CONSTRAINT, ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. IT MAY THEN WEAKEN.

NEXT WEEK, A MATURE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK IN THE VICINITY OF MASCARENES
ISLANDS. INHABITANTS ARE INVITED TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM IN THE NEXT DAYS.=

2018-01-14 06:31

WTIO20 FMEE 140612
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/01/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 14/01/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA) 991 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.0 S / 63.1 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 55
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 125 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/14 AT 18 UTC:
17.9 S / 63.0 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/15 AT 06 UTC:
17.6 S / 62.4 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-01-14 02:31

WTXS51 PGTW 140300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 180114012521
2018011400 06S BERGUITTA 006 02 270 04 SATL 060
T000 182S 0634E 050 R050 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
075 NE QD 115 SE QD 105 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 181S 0629E 060 R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
130 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 178S 0626E 070 R064 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 025 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 055 SE QD 065 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 180 SE QD
155 SW QD 075 NW QD
T036 176S 0622E 075 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 060 SE QD 065 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 195 SE QD
180 SW QD 085 NW QD
T048 174S 0615E 085 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 065 SE QD 075 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 215 SE QD
200 SW QD 095 NW QD
T072 181S 0600E 090 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 230 SE QD
220 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 198S 0578E 085 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 095 SE QD 105 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 260 SE QD
220 SW QD 125 NW QD
T120 220S 0550E 075 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 230 SE QD
235 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 18.2S 63.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS

2018-01-14 02:31

WTXS51 PGTW 140300
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 180114012521
2018011400 06S BERGUITTA 006 02 270 04 SATL 060
T000 182S 0634E 050 R050 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 115 SE QD 105 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 181S 0629E 060 R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 178S 0626E 070 R064 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 025 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 065 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 180 SE QD 155 SW QD 075 NW QD
T036 176S 0622E 075 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 065 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 195 SE QD 180 SW QD 085 NW QD
T048 174S 0615E 085 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 065 SE QD 075 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 215 SE QD 200 SW QD 095 NW QD
T072 181S 0600E 090 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 230 SE QD 220 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 198S 0578E 085 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 095 SE QD 105 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 260 SE QD 220 SW QD 125 NW QD
T120 220S 0550E 075 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 230 SE QD 235 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 18.2S 63.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 63.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 18.1S 62.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 17.8S 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 17.6S 62.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 17.4S 61.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 18.1S 60.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 19.8S 57.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 22.0S 55.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 63.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 364 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z.
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0618011100 130S 679E 15
0618011106 131S 683E 20
0618011112 137S 687E 30
0618011118 146S 690E 30
0618011200 153S 690E 30
0618011206 162S 685E 30
0618011212 168S 676E 30
0618011218 170S 669E 35
0618011300 174S 658E 35
0618011306 176S 651E 40
0618011312 181S 644E 40
0618011318 182S 638E 40
0618011400 182S 634E 50
0618011400 182S 634E 50

2018-01-14 02:31

WTXS31 PGTW 140300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 18.2S 63.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 63.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 18.1S 62.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-01-14 02:31

WTXS31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 18.2S 63.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 63.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 18.1S 62.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 17.8S 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 17.6S 62.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 17.4S 61.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 18.1S 60.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 19.8S 57.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 22.0S 55.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 63.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 364 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED STRUCTURALLY OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS, WITH DEEPENING CORE CONVECTION CENTERED AROUND THE
ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 132349Z SSMIS 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE AND DEEP
CONVECTION NEARLY ENCIRCLING THE LLCC. THE SAME EYE FEATURE IS ALSO
EVIDENT IN LOWER FREQUENCY MICROWAVE DATA (37 GHZ) BUT IS NOT AS
CLEAR AND OFFSET SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST, INDICATING THAT THE SYSTEM
HAS YET TO CONSOLIDATE VERTICALLY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM KNES AS WELL
AS AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATE OF 49 KNOTS AND
SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 53 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TC 06S REMAINS IN AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND WARM
(28 CELSIUS) SSTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL POINT
SOURCE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, PROVIDING OVERALL WEAK
BUT WELL ORGANIZED OUTFLOW, THE WEAK NATURE OF WHICH IS THE ONLY
HINDRANCE KEEPING TC 06S ON ITS SLOW INTENSIFICATION TREND. TC 06S
HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS UNDER WEAK STEERING
FLOW. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH
TAU 24, THEN INCREASE SPEED SLIGHTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG
STR WHICH DEVELOPS SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. AFTER TAU 48 THE STR
MOVES TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST OF TC 06S, LEADING THE
SYSTEM TO TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY
THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION
BETWEEN TAUS 48 AND 72 AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAP INTO A STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, REACHING A PEAK OF 90 KNOTS AROUND TAU 72
BEFORE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING
SSTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
TRACK THROUGH TAU 48 WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPEED AND TIMING
OF THE TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. BEYOND TAU 48 HOWEVER, THE MODELS HAVE
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY BOTH IN THE ACROSS AND ALONG-TRACK
DIMENSIONS, WITH A SPREAD OF 410 NM BETWEEN THE TAU 120 OUTLIERS.
DISCOUNTING THE OUTLIERS, THE MAJORITY OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
INDICATES A PATH THAT BRACKETS MAURITIUS. THE JTWC TRACK LIES ON THE
NORTH EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
WITH THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY PRESENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE,
THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//

2018-01-14 00:31

WTIO31 FMEE 140017

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/3/20172018
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 3 (BERGUITTA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 14/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.2 S / 63.2 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE TROIS DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 160 SE: 190 SO: 230 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 140 NO: 70



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 14/01/2018 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 15/01/2018 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 15/01/2018 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 61.1 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 16/01/2018 00 UTC: 16.9 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 16/01/2018 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 60.0 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 17/01/2018 00 UTC: 16.9 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 18/01/2018 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 57.5 E, VENT MAX=095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
120H: 19/01/2018 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX=095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=3.0+

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6H, PLUSIEURS POUSSEES CONVECTIVES SE SONT
ENROULEES TRES PRES DU CENTRE. CELA CORRESPOND A UNE AMELIORATION DE
LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE. LES PASSES MICRO-ONDES AMSR2 DE 2022Z ET
GMI DE 1956Z MONTRENT EGALEMENT UNE CONSOLIDATION EVIDENTE DU COEUR
DE BASSE ET MOYENNE TROPOSHERE PAR RAPPORT AUX DONNEES PRECEDENTES.

LE SYSTEME SEMBLE AVOIR LEGEREMENT REDRESSE SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS
L'OUEST, ALORS QU'IL BUTE CONTRE UNE PUISSANTE DORSALE DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE QUI S'ETABLIT DEPUIS LE SUD DE MADAGASCAR. LES MODELES
NUMERIQUES PROPOSENT ALORS UNE REMONTEE VERS LE NORD-OUEST SUR LA
FACE NORD-EST DE LA DORSALE MAIS AVEC DES VITESSES ENCORE TRES
DIFFERENTES, CE QUI MAINTIENT UNE INCERTITUDE IMPORTANTE SUR LA
PREVISION COMME ILLUSTRE PAR LA DISPERSION IMPORTANTE DE LA PREVISION
D'ENSEMBLE. MECREDI, UN RECOURBEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST LIA AU
DECALAGE DE LA DORSALE EST PREVU. LA FAIBLE PREVISIBILITE DES
PREMIERES ECHEANCES INDUIT UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR LE TIMING DE LA
MENACE POTENTIELLE SUR LES A LES DE L'ARCHIPEL DES MASCAREIGNES. LA
PREVISION OFFICIELLE DU CMRS EST BASEE SUR UNE MOYENNE ENTRE LES
MODELES AMERICAINS ET EUROPEENS.

LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT GRADUELLEMENT S'INTENSIFIER DANS DE TRES BONNES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES. SUR CETTE FENA TRE DE PREVISION, LE
SYSTEME A VOLUE SOUS LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE AVEC PAR CONSEQUENT UN
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT FAIBLE. A COURT TERME, LA DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE DEVRAIT ENCORE S'AMELIORER AVEC LA MISE EN PLACE
PROGRESSIVE DE DEUX CANAUX D'EVACUATION A LA FOIS CA TE POLAIRE ET
EQUATORIAL.

A PARTIR DE LA SEMAINE PROCHAINE, UN SYSTEME MATURE EST DONC PREVU
EVOLUER A PROXIMITA DES MASCAREIGNES. LEURS HABITANTS SONT INVITES A
SE TENIR REGULIEREMENT AU COURANT DE LA SITUATION.=

2018-01-14 00:31

WTIO30 FMEE 140017

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/3/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/14 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 63.2 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL
TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 160 SE: 190 SW: 230 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 140 NW: 70



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/14 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 62.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/01/15 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 61.6 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/01/15 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 61.1 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/01/16 00 UTC: 16.9 S / 60.5 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/01/16 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 60.0 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2018/01/17 00 UTC: 16.9 S / 59.3 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/18 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 57.5 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2018/01/19 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 55.3 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BURSTS WRAPPED VERY
CLOSELY AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS CORRESPONDS TO AN
IMPROVEMENT OF THE CLOUD PATTERN. 2022Z AMSR2 AND 1956Z GMI MW IMAGES
ALSO SHOW A CLEAR CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW/MID LEVEL CORE STRUCTURE
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DATA.

THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO SLIGHTLY TURN WESTWARD CURRENTLY, AS IT BUMPS
INTO A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING UP FROM THE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR.
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A NORTHWESTWARD TURN ON THE
NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE BUT WITH STILL VERY DIFFERENT TRACK
SPEEDS. THIS MAINTAINS A HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK FORECAST, AS
ALSO ILLUSTRATED BY THE STRONG DISPERSION OF THE ENSEMBLE FORECAST.
WEDNESDAY, A BEND TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST LINKED TO THE SHIFT OF THE
RIDGE AND THE ARRIVAL OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR
IS FORECAST WITH BETTER CONFIDENCE. BUT THE LOW PREVISIBILITY DURING
THE FIRST DAYS INDUCES AN UNCERTAINTY OVER THE TIMING OF THE
POTENTIAL THREAT OVER MASCARENES ISLANDS. THIS ADVISORY IS BASED ON A
MEAN SCENARIO BETWEEN THE AMERICAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY WITHIN VERY GOOD
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. BERGUITTA SHOULD TRACK UNDER THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE, THUS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND WINDSHEAR. IN THE SHORT
TERM, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SHOULD IMPROVE WITH BOTH POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS.

NEXT WEEK, A MATURE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK IN THE VICINITY OF MASCARENES
ISLANDS. INHABITANTS ARE INVITED TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM IN THE NEXT DAYS.=

2018-01-14 00:16

WTIO20 FMEE 140005
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/01/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 005/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 14/01/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 63.2 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
275NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 55
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 125 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/14 AT 12 UTC:
18.1 S / 62.2 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/15 AT 00 UTC:
17.7 S / 61.6 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-01-13 21:31

WTXS51 PGTW 132100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 180113195818
2018011318 06S BERGUITTA 005 02 255 08 SATL 060
T000 183S 0636E 040 R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 115 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 183S 0628E 050 R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
130 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 179S 0623E 060 R050 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 065 SW QD 035 NW QD R034
110 NE QD 180 SE QD 155 SW QD 075 NW QD
T036 177S 0621E 070 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 060 SE QD 065 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 195 SE QD
180 SW QD 085 NW QD
T048 174S 0613E 080 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 065 SE QD 075 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 215 SE QD
200 SW QD 095 NW QD
T072 179S 0598E 090 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 230 SE QD
220 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 195S 0576E 085 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 095 SE QD 105 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 260 SE QD
220 SW QD 125 NW QD
T120 214S 0551E 075 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 230 SE QD
235 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 18.3S 63.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

2018-01-13 21:31

WTXS51 PGTW 132100
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 180113195818
2018011318 06S BERGUITTA 005 02 255 08 SATL 060
T000 183S 0636E 040 R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 115 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 183S 0628E 050 R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 179S 0623E 060 R050 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 065 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 180 SE QD 155 SW QD 075 NW QD
T036 177S 0621E 070 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 065 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 195 SE QD 180 SW QD 085 NW QD
T048 174S 0613E 080 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 065 SE QD 075 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 215 SE QD 200 SW QD 095 NW QD
T072 179S 0598E 090 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 230 SE QD 220 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 195S 0576E 085 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 095 SE QD 105 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 260 SE QD 220 SW QD 125 NW QD
T120 214S 0551E 075 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 230 SE QD 235 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 18.3S 63.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 63.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 18.3S 62.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 17.9S 62.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.7S 62.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.4S 61.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.9S 59.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 19.5S 57.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 21.4S 55.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 63.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 373 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140900Z AND 142100Z.
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0618011100 130S 679E 15
0618011106 131S 683E 20
0618011112 137S 687E 30
0618011118 146S 690E 30
0618011200 153S 690E 30
0618011206 162S 685E 30
0618011212 168S 676E 30
0618011218 170S 669E 35
0618011300 174S 658E 35
0618011306 176S 651E 40
0618011312 181S 644E 40
0618011318 183S 636E 40

2018-01-13 21:31

WTXS31 PGTW 132100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 18.3S 63.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 63.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 18.3S 62.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 17.9S 62.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

2018-01-13 21:31

WTXS31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 18.3S 63.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 63.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 18.3S 62.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 17.9S 62.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.7S 62.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.4S 61.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.9S 59.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 19.5S 57.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 21.4S 55.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 63.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 373 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN OVERALL DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS BUT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF INCREASING IN AREAL
COVERAGE DUE TO THE APPROACH OF CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM, WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE DEEPEST ACTIVITY BEING CONFINED TO NEAR THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 131740Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH
A WELL DEFINED LLCC AND DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM
THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND T3.0 (45 KNOTS)
FROM KNES. A 131658Z ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER BULLSEYE PASS INDICATED
MAXIMUM WINDS OF 35-40 KNOTS, MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 06S LIES IN AN AREA
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO
10 KNOTS) AND WARM (28 CELSIUS) SSTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS
THAT THE SYSTEM HAS WELL ORGANIZED POINT SOURCE JUST TO ITS NORTH,
PROVIDING ROBUST POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. TC 06S
IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY TRACK TO THE WEST THROUGH TAU 12, THEN MEANDER
SLOWLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) DEVELOPING NEAR SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR
AND GENERALLY TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER)
LYING ALONG ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES SOUTH. AFTER TAU 48 AS THE STR EXTENDS
TOWARDS THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES REORIENTED TO A SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ORIENTATION, TC 06S WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
ACCELERATE. TC 06S WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD, REACHING A PEAK OF 90 KNOTS AROUND TAU 72 BEFORE WEAKENING
SLIGHTLY AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SSTS. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK THROUGH TAU 48 DUE
TO THE OVERALL WEAK STEERING PATTERN. AFTER TAU 48, MOST OF THE
MODELS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT, WITH DIFFERENCES IN FORWARD
SPEED BEING THE MAJOR DISAGREEMENT. WHILE ALL MODELS INDICATE A SLOW
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IN THE EARLY TAU'S, THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT
SPREAD IN THE MODEL TRACKERS BEYOND TAU 48, WITH THE EUROPEAN MODELS
AND ENSEMBLES TAKING THE SYSTEM MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND WEST, WHILE
THE COAMPS-TC SHOWS NO NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT, AND CONTINUES THE
SYSTEM DIRECTLY SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC
TRACK LIES ON THE NORTH EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS HEDGED TOWARDS THE EUROPEAN SOLUTIONS. WITH
THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY PRESENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE
IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//

2018-01-13 21:31

WTIO31 FMEE 131825

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/3/20172018
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 3 (BERGUITTA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 13/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.3 S / 63.9 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE TROIS DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 997 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 160 SE: 190 SO: 230 NO: 50
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO:



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 14/01/2018 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 14/01/2018 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 62.6 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 15/01/2018 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 15/01/2018 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 16/01/2018 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 60.2 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 16/01/2018 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 59.6 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 17/01/2018 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 57.6 E, VENT MAX=095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
120H: 18/01/2018 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 55.2 E, VENT MAX=095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=2.5+

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6H, LA CONFIGURATION DU SYSTEME A PEU EVOLUE.
LA CONVECTION LA PLUS INTENSE S'EST MAINTENUE PRES DU CENTRE. LA
PASSE SSMIS DE 1410Z REVELE UNE ORGANISATION INTERNE ENCORE EN COURS
DE CONSOLIDATION. LA PASSE ASCAT DE 1656Z MONTRE EGALEMENT UNE
REPARTITION DES VENTS ASSEZ ASYMETRIQUE PRES DU CENTRE, SANS COUP DE
VENT DANS LE QUADRAN NORD-OUEST.

LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT REDRESSER SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST DANS LES
PROCHAINES HEURES, ALORS QU'IL BUTE CONTRE UNE PUISSANTE DORSALE DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI S'ETABLIT DEPUIS LE SUD DE MADAGASCAR. LES
MODELES NUMERIQUES PROPOSENT TOUJOURS DEUX SCENARIOS. LES MODELES
AMERICAINS ENVISAGENT UN RALENTISSEMENT NET AVEC UNE LEGERE REMONTEE
VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST. LE MODELE EUROPEEN FAIT REMONTER LE SYSTEME
BAEUCOUP PLUS FRANCHEMENT VERS LE NORD-OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD-EST DE
LA DORSALE. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, LES MODELES SONT DAVANTAGE EN
ACCORD POUR ENVISAGER UN RECOURBEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST LIA AU
DECALAGE DE LA DORSALE ET DE L'ARRIVA E D'UN TALWEG DE MOYENNE/HAUTE
ALTITUDE SUR MADAGASCAR. MAIS L'INCERTITUDE SUR LE COMPORTEMENT DU
SYSTEME AU COURS DES PREMIERES ECHEANCES INDUIT UN DECALAGE DE TIMING
DE LA MENACE POTENTIELLE SUR LES A LES DE L'ARCHIPEL DES
MASCAREIGNES. LA PREVISION OFFICIELLE DU CMRS DONNE UN POIDS PLUS
IMPORTANT AU MODELE EUROPEEN ALORS QUE LES DERNIERS RESEAUX DU GFS SE
RECALENT LEGEREMENT VERS SON SCENARIO.

LE SYSTEME BENEFICIE DE TRES BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES POUR
POURSUIVRE SON INTENSIFICATION. SUR CETTE FENA TRE DE PREVISION, LE
SYSTEME A VOLUE SOUS LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE AVEC PAR CONSEQUENT UN
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT FAIBLE. LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE
DEVRAIT ENCORE S'AMELIORER DEMAIN AVEC LA MISE EN PLACE PROGRESSIVE
DE DEUX CANAUX D'EVACUATION A LA FOIS CA TE POLAIRE ET EQUATORIAL.

A PARTIR DE LA SEMAINE PROCHAINE, UN SYSTEME MATURE EST DONC PREVU
EVOLUER A PROXIMITA DES MASCAREIGNES. LEURS HABITANTS SONT INVITES A
SE TENIR REGULIEREMENT AU COURANT DE LA SITUATION.=

2018-01-13 21:31

WTIO31 FMEE 131243

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 3/3/20172018
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 3 (BERGUITTA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 13/01/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.8 S / 64.5 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATRE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 997 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 190 SO: 110 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: NO: 70



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 14/01/2018 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 14/01/2018 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 62.1 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 15/01/2018 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 61.1 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 15/01/2018 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 60.2 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 16/01/2018 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 16/01/2018 12 UTC: 16.9 S / 58.7 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 17/01/2018 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 57.9 E, VENT MAX=100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
120H: 18/01/2018 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX=110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=2.5+

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6H, LA CONFIGURATION DU SYSTEME S'EST
AMELIOREE. L'IMAGERIE VISIBLE A MONTRE LA FORMATION D'UNE BANDE
INCURVA E QUI EVOLUE SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES EN UNE CONFIGURATION A
FORMATION NUAGEUSE CENTRALE DENSE. EN CONSEQUENCE, LE SYSTEME A ETE
BAPTISE BERGUITTA PAR LE SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE MAURICIEN A 1130Z
UTC.

LE SYSTEME EST PREVU POURUIVRE SA TRAJETOIRE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST.
A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, IL DEVRAIT BUTER CONTRE UNE PUISSANTE DORSALE
DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI S'ETABLIT AU SUD DE MADAGASCAR. LES
MODELES NUMERIQUES PROPOSENT ALORS DEUX SCENARIOS. LES MODELES
AMERICAINS ENVISAGENT UN RALENTISSEMENT NET EN CONSERVANT UN
DEPLACEMENT OUEST LENT. LE MODELE EUROPEEN FAIT REMONTER LE SYSTEME
EN DIRECTION DU NORD-OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD-EST DE CETTE DORSALE. EN
REVANCHE, A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, LES MODELES SONT DAVANTAGE EN ACCORD
POUR ENVISAGER UN RECOURBEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST LIA AU DECALAGE DE
LA DORSALE ET DE L'ARRIVA E D'UN TALWEG DE MOYENNE/HAUTE ALTITUDE SUR
MADAGASCAR. MAIS L'INCERTITUDE SUR LE COMPORTEMENT DU SYSTEME AU
COURS DES PREMIERES ECHEANCES INDUIT UN DECALAGE SUR LA PREVISION DE
TRAJECTOIRE QUI A UN IMPACT CERTAIN SUR LA MENACE POTENTIELLE SUR LES
A LES DE L'ARCHIPEL DES MASCAREIGNES. CETTE PREVISION DONNE UN POIDS
PLUS IMPORTANT AU MODELE EUROPEEN AVEC UN SYSTEME QUI POURSUIT UNE
TRAJECTOIRE PLUS LONGUE VERS LE NORD-OUEST.

LE SYSTEME BENEFICIE DE TRES BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES POUR
POURSUIVRE SON INTENSIFICATION. SUR CETTE FENA TRE DE PREVISION, LE
SYSTEME A VOLUE SOUS LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE AVEC PAR CONSEQUENT UN
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT FAIBLE. A PARTIR DE DEMAIN, LA
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE EST PREVUE S'AMELIORER AVEC PROGRESSIVEMENT LA
MISE EN PLACE DE DEUX CANAUX D'EVACUATION A LA FOIS CA TE POLAIRE ET
EQUATORIAL.

A PARTIR DE LA SEMAINE PROCHAINE, UN SYSTEME MATURE EST DONC PREVU
EVOLUER A PROXIMITA DES MASCAREIGNES. LEURS HABITANTS SONT INVITES A
SE TENIR REGULIEREMENT AU COURANT DE LA SITUATION.=

2018-01-13 21:31

WTIO30 FMEE 131825

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/3/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/13 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.3 S / 63.9 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL
NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 160 SE: 190 SW: 230 NW: 50
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW:



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/14 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 63.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/01/14 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 62.6 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/01/15 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 61.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/01/15 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 60.9 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/01/16 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 60.2 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2018/01/16 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 59.6 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/17 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 57.6 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2018/01/18 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 55.2 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CLOUD PATTERN DID NOT EVOLVE MUCH. THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION REMAINED CLOSE TO BERGUITTA'S CENTER. 1410Z
SSMIS SWATH REVEALS A CORE STRUCTURE STILL IN ITS CONSOLIDATING
PHASE. 1656Z ASCAT SWATH SHOWS ALSO AN ASYMETRICAL WIND REPARTITION
NEAR THE CENTER, WITH NO GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY TURN WESTWARD IN THE NEXT HOURS,
AS IT BUMPS INTO A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING UP FROM THE SOUTH OF
MADAGASCAR. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGEST 2 SCENARIOS. US
MODELS SUGGEST A SLOWING TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTH-WEST. THE ECMWF
MODEL FORECASTS A SHARPER NORTHWESTWARD TURN ON THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE
OF THE RIDGE. WEDNESDAY, THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO FORECAST
A BEND TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST LINKED TO THE SHIFT OF THE RIDGE AND THE
ARRIVAL OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. BUT THE
UNCERTAINTY DURING THE FIRST DAYS INDUCES A TIMING SHIFT OF THE
POTENTIAL THREAT OVER MASCARENES ISLANDS.
THIS ADVISORY FAVORS THE ECMWF FORECAST AS THE LAST GFS RUNS TEND TO
COME CLOSER TO THE EUROPEAN TRACK FORECAST.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY WITHIN VERY GOOD
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. IT TRACKS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH
A LOW VERTICAL WIND WINSHEAR. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SHOULD EVEN
IMPROVE WITH BOTH POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS.

NEXT WEEK, A MATURE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK IN THE VICINITY OF MASCARENES
ISLANDS. INHABITANTS ARE INVITED TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM IN THE NEXT DAYS.=

2018-01-13 21:31

WTIO30 FMEE 131243

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/3/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA)

2.A POSITION 2018/01/13 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8 S / 64.5 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL
FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 190 SW: 110 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: NW: 70



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/01/14 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 63.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/01/14 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 62.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/01/15 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 61.1 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/01/15 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 60.2 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/01/16 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 59.3 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2018/01/16 12 UTC: 16.9 S / 58.7 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/01/17 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 57.9 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2018/01/18 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 56.4 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED. VISIBLE IMAGERY
HAS SHOWN THE FORMATION A CURVED BAND THAT IS EVOLVING IN A CDO
PATTERN. AS A CONSEQUENCE, THE SYSTEM HAS NAMED BERGUITTA AT 1130Z BY
THE MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES.

THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO KEEP ON ITS WESTSOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. FROM
SUNDAY, IT SHOULD BUMP INTO A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING UP IN THE SOUTH
OF MADAGASCAR. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST 2 SCENARIOS. US
MODELS SHOW A WESTWARD SLOWING DOWN TRACK WHILE ECMWF MODEL FORECASTS
A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ON THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE. BY
CONTRAST, MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO FORECAST A BEND TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST LINKED TO THE SHIFT OF THE RIDGE AND THE ARRIVAL OF A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR FROM WEDNESDAY. BUT THE
UNCERTAINTY DURING THE FIRST DAYS INDUCES A SHIFT OF THE FORECASTED
TRACK THAT INFLUENCES THE POTENTIAL THREAT OVER MASCARENES ISLANDS.
THIS ADVISORY FAVORS THE ECMWF FORECAST WITH A SYSTEM THAT TRACKS
LONGER NORTHWESTWARD.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER VERY GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS TO INTENSIFY. IT EVOLVES UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH
A LOW VERTICAL WIND WINSHEAR. FROM SUNDAY, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS
FORECASTED TO IMPROVE WITH BOTH POLERWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOWS.

THE NEXT WEEK, A MATURE SYSTEM SHOULD EVOLVE IN THE VICINITY OF
MASCARENES ISLANDS. INHABITANTS ARE INVITED TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE NEXT DAYS.=

2018-01-13 21:31

WTIO20 FMEE 131813
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/01/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 004/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 13/01/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.3 S / 63.9 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
250NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
35 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 25
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 125 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/14 AT 06 UTC:
18.2 S / 63.1 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/14 AT 18 UTC:
17.9 S / 62.6 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-01-13 21:31

WTIO20 FMEE 131208
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/01/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 003/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 13/01/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BERGUITTA) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8 S / 64.5 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
40 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/01/14 AT 00 UTC:
18.1 S / 63.2 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/01/14 AT 12 UTC:
18.1 S / 62.1 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

2018-01-13 15:01

WTXS31 PGTW 131500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 17.9S 64.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 64.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 18.0S 63.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 17.9S 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

2018-01-13 15:01

WTXS31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 17.9S 64.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 64.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 18.0S 63.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 17.9S 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 17.8S 62.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 17.7S 61.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 17.9S 60.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.0S 58.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 20.9S 56.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 63.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (BERGUITTA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 402 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI-SPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION THAT HAS
SLIGHTLY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE REMAINING
CONVECTION IS CENTRALLY LOCATED OVER AND OCCLUDING THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 131059Z 37GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION PREDOMINANTLY
IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND WEAK BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE UPPER END OF MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM
PGTW AND KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS)
AND WARM (28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS WELL ORGANIZED POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY TRACK TO
THE WEST INITIALLY, SHIFTING THE WEST NORTHWEST AFTER TAU 12 IN A
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER
TAU 48 THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHWEST UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. TC 06S WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD, REACHING A PEAK OF 95 KNOTS AROUND TAU 96 BEFORE WEAKENING
SLIGHTLY AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK DUE TO THE
LACK OF A DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE IN THE EARLY TAUS AND VARIATIONS
IN THE RATE AT WHICH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS. WHILE GENERALLY
THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE WEST
INITIALLY AND THEN TO THE SOUTHWEST, THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS. DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD, THERE IS OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z,
140900Z AND 141500Z.//

2018-01-13 09:16

WTXS51 PGTW 130900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 180113075622
2018011306 06S SIX 003 02 250 09 SATL 040
T000 177S 0649E 040 R034 080 NE QD 120 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 178S 0638E 045 R034 110 NE QD 140 SE QD 105 SW QD 085 NW QD
T024 178S 0632E 055 R050 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R034
130 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 085 NW QD
T036 178S 0628E 065 R064 015 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 190 SE QD
135 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 176S 0624E 080 R064 015 NE QD 020 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 215 SE QD
170 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 178S 0616E 090 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 085 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 225 SE QD
190 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 186S 0601E 095 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 250 SE QD
205 SW QD 135 NW QD
T120 201S 0582E 095 R064 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 105 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 245 SE QD
195 SW QD 125 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 17.7S 64.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

2018-01-13 09:16

WTXS51 PGTW 130900
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 180113075622
2018011306 06S SIX 003 02 250 09 SATL 040
T000 177S 0649E 040 R034 080 NE QD 120 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 178S 0638E 045 R034 110 NE QD 140 SE QD 105 SW QD 085 NW QD
T024 178S 0632E 055 R050 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 085 NW QD
T036 178S 0628E 065 R064 015 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 190 SE QD 135 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 176S 0624E 080 R064 015 NE QD 020 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 215 SE QD 170 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 178S 0616E 090 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 085 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 225 SE QD 190 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 186S 0601E 095 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 250 SE QD 205 SW QD 135 NW QD
T120 201S 0582E 095 R064 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 105 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 245 SE QD 195 SW QD 125 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 17.7S 64.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 64.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 17.8S 63.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 17.8S 63.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 17.8S 62.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.6S 62.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.8S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 18.6S 60.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 20.1S 58.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 64.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0618011100 130S 679E 15
0618011106 131S 683E 20
0618011112 137S 687E 30
0618011118 146S 690E 30
0618011200 153S 690E 30
0618011206 162S 685E 30
0618011212 168S 676E 30
0618011218 170S 669E 35
0618011300 174S 658E 35
0618011306 177S 649E 40

2018-01-13 09:16

WTXS31 PGTW 130900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 17.7S 64.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 64.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 17.8S 63.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 17.8S 63.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-01-13 09:01

WTXS31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 17.7S 64.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 64.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 17.8S 63.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 17.8S 63.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 17.8S 62.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.6S 62.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.8S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 18.6S 60.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 20.1S 58.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 64.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI-SPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
CENTRALLY LOCATED OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
130511Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS
BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 35-40 KNOT WIND
BARBS AND IS ON THE UPPER END OF THE PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15
KNOTS) AND WARM (28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 06S HAS WELL ORGANIZED POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY TRACK TO
THE WEST IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER
TAU 36 THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME QUASI STATIONARY BEFORE FINALLY
ACCELERATING TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND TAU 72 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 06S WILL STEADILY
INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, REACHING A PEAK OF 95
KNOTS AROUND TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT IN
THE TRACK DUE TO THE LACK OF A DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE. THIS IS
PRODUCING A LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODELS THROUGH THE QUASI STATIONARY
PERIOD. HOWEVER, IN GENERAL THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM TRACKS
TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE LONG TERM. DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 05S (JOYCE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON
THAT SYSTEM.//

2018-01-13 03:01

WTXS51 PGTW 130300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 180113020301
2018011300 06S SIX 002 02 255 13 SATL 060
T000 173S 0656E 035 R034 075 NE QD 125 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 175S 0641E 045 R034 080 NE QD 130 SE QD 095 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 176S 0632E 055 R050 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
080 NE QD 140 SE QD 105 SW QD 095 NW QD
T036 175S 0627E 065 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 165 SE QD
105 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 174S 0623E 080 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 205 SE QD
150 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 173S 0618E 090 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 200 SE QD
215 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 182S 0608E 095 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 085 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 245 SE QD
205 SW QD 135 NW QD
T120 195S 0593E 095 R064 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 265 SE QD
220 SW QD 170 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 17.3S 65.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

2018-01-13 03:01

WTXS51 PGTW 130300
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 180113020301
2018011300 06S SIX 002 02 255 13 SATL 060
T000 173S 0656E 035 R034 075 NE QD 125 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 175S 0641E 045 R034 080 NE QD 130 SE QD 095 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 176S 0632E 055 R050 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 140 SE QD 105 SW QD 095 NW QD
T036 175S 0627E 065 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 165 SE QD 105 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 174S 0623E 080 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 205 SE QD 150 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 173S 0618E 090 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 200 SE QD 215 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 182S 0608E 095 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 085 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 245 SE QD 205 SW QD 135 NW QD
T120 195S 0593E 095 R064 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 265 SE QD 220 SW QD 170 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 17.3S 65.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 65.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 17.5S 64.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 17.6S 63.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 17.5S 62.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 17.4S 62.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 17.3S 61.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 18.2S 60.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 19.5S 59.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 65.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 501 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0618011100 130S 679E 15
0618011106 131S 683E 20
0618011112 137S 687E 30
0618011118 146S 690E 30
0618011200 153S 690E 30
0618011206 162S 685E 30
0618011212 168S 676E 30
0618011218 170S 669E 35
0618011300 173S 656E 35

2018-01-13 03:01

WTXS31 PGTW 130300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 17.3S 65.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 65.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 17.5S 64.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 17.6S 63.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-01-13 03:01

WTXS31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 17.3S 65.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 65.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 17.5S 64.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 17.6S 63.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 17.5S 62.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 17.4S 62.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 17.3S 61.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 18.2S 60.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 19.5S 59.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 65.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 501 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF DEEP AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION
LOCATED AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED
WITH TC 06S. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 122226Z SSMI 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING AN IMPROVING BANDING STRUCTURE AROUND THE
LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND DEVELOPING
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORABLE, NEAR 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 06S WILL SLOWLY TRACK TO
THE WEST WITH A WEAK STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH TAU 36 AND INTENSIFY
TO 65 KNOTS. TC 06S WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY BETWEEN TAU 36 AND
TAU 72 WITH A CONTINUED WEAK STEERING PATTERN. A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) WILL ACCELERATE AND STEER TC 06S SOUTHWESTWARD NEAR TAU
72. THE DEVELOPING DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS WILL ALLOW TC 06S TO REACH
AN INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS BY TAU 96. DUE TO THE LACK OF A PRIMARY
STEERING INFLUENCE THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
TRACKS, ESPECIALLY AS TC 06S BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY. AFTER TAU 72
THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT TC 06S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD BUT A
LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z,
132100Z AND 140300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (JOYCE) WARNING
(WTXS33 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.//

2018-01-12 22:01

WTXS51 PGTW 122100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 180112203613
2018011218 06S SIX 001 02 255 07 SATL 060
T000 170S 0669E 035 R034 070 NE QD 120 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 175S 0652E 040 R034 070 NE QD 125 SE QD 075 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 177S 0641E 045 R034 070 NE QD 155 SE QD 105 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 176S 0633E 065 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 185 SE QD
140 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 174S 0629E 080 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 195 SE QD
160 SW QD 105 NW QD
T072 170S 0622E 090 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 195 SE QD
165 SW QD 135 NW QD
T096 173S 0615E 095 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 215 SE QD
195 SW QD 160 NW QD
T120 189S 0607E 095 R064 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 085 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 280 SE QD
225 SW QD 150 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 17.0S 66.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

2018-01-12 22:01

WTXS51 PGTW 122100
WARNING ATCG MIL 06S SIO 180112203613
2018011218 06S SIX 001 02 255 07 SATL 060
T000 170S 0669E 035 R034 070 NE QD 120 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 175S 0652E 040 R034 070 NE QD 125 SE QD 075 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 177S 0641E 045 R034 070 NE QD 155 SE QD 105 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 176S 0633E 065 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 185 SE QD 140 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 174S 0629E 080 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 195 SE QD 160 SW QD 105 NW QD
T072 170S 0622E 090 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 195 SE QD 165 SW QD 135 NW QD
T096 173S 0615E 095 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 215 SE QD 195 SW QD 160 NW QD
T120 189S 0607E 095 R064 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 085 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 280 SE QD 225 SW QD 150 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 17.0S 66.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 66.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 17.5S 65.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 17.7S 64.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 17.6S 63.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 17.4S 62.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.0S 62.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.3S 61.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 18.9S 60.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 66.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 577 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0618011100 130S 679E 15
0618011106 131S 683E 20
0618011112 137S 687E 30
0618011118 146S 690E 30
0618011200 153S 690E 30
0618011206 162S 685E 30
0618011212 168S 676E 30
0618011218 170S 669E 35

2018-01-12 22:01

WTXS31 PGTW 122100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120121ZJAN2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 17.0S 66.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 66.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 17.5S 65.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 17.7S 64.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

2018-01-12 22:01

WTXS31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120121ZJAN2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 17.0S 66.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 66.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 17.5S 65.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 17.7S 64.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 17.6S 63.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 17.4S 62.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.0S 62.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.3S 61.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 18.9S 60.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 66.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 577 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION LOCATED TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED
WITH TC 06S. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 121717Z AMSU 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING THE LLCC WITH THE CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE
NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20
KNOTS) AND DEVELOPING POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE, NEAR 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 06S
WILL SLOWLY TRACK TO THE WEST WITH A WEAK STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH
TAU 48. TC 06S WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO 45 KNOTS BY TAU 24. TC 06S
WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO 65 KNOTS BY TAU 36 DUE TO IMPROVED OUTFLOW
CHANNELS AND DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 06S WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH TAU 96 WITH A WEAK STEERING INFLUENCE. A
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WILL ACCELERATE AND STEER TC 06S
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD BEGINNING NEAR TAU 96. DUE TO THE LACK OF A
PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE TRACKS, ESPECIALLY AS TC 06S BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY. AFTER
TAU 96 THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT TC 06S WILL TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD BUT A LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS,
THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z. THIS CANCELS AND
SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 120130). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
05S (JOYCE) WARNING (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM.//