Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for MARCUS-18
in Australia

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones (WT) or Tsunami (WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present. The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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2018-03-24 09:01

WTXS32 PGTW 240900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 035
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 26.9S 107.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.9S 107.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 29.0S 108.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 27.4S 107.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 449 NM SOUTHWEST
OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE FULLY EXPOSED LLC HAS BECOME
MORE RAGGED AND ELONGATED AS THE MAIN CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
ERODED AND SHEARED SOUTHEASTWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THE LLC IN THE MSI LOOP THAT COINCIDED WELL WITH THE LOW REFLECTIVITY
CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 240554Z ATMS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL

2018-03-24 08:46

WTXS52 PGTW 240900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180324072757
2018032406 15S MARCUS 035 01 170 16 SATL 020
T000 269S 1076E 035 R034 235 NE QD 235 SE QD 170 SW QD 195 NW QD
T012 290S 1082E 030
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 035
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 26.9S 107.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.9S 107.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 29.0S 108.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 27.4S 107.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 449 NM
SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON

2018-03-24 08:46

WTXS52 PGTW 240900
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180324072757
2018032406 15S MARCUS 035 01 170 16 SATL 020
T000 269S 1076E 035 R034 235 NE QD 235 SE QD 170 SW QD 195 NW QD
T012 290S 1082E 030
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 035
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 26.9S 107.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.9S 107.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 29.0S 108.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 27.4S 107.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 449 NM
SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z
IS 18 FEET.
//
1518031318 85S1287E 20
1518031400 88S1289E 20
1518031406 90S1292E 20
1518031412 90S1296E 20
1518031418 90S1300E 20
1518031500 90S1304E 25
1518031506 93S1313E 30
1518031512 96S1319E 30
1518031518 101S1323E 35
1518031600 105S1324E 40
1518031606 108S1322E 40
1518031612 112S1319E 40
1518031618 117S1316E 40
1518031700 124S1311E 45
1518031706 130S1300E 45
1518031712 135S1293E 45
1518031718 139S1286E 50
1518031718 139S1286E 50
1518031800 142S1278E 55
1518031800 142S1278E 55
1518031806 146S1266E 50
1518031806 146S1266E 50
1518031812 150S1253E 45
1518031818 150S1243E 50
1518031818 150S1243E 50
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031918 153S1199E 100
1518031918 153S1199E 100
1518031918 153S1199E 100
1518032000 151S1184E 105
1518032000 151S1184E 105
1518032000 151S1184E 105
1518032006 148S1167E 105
1518032006 148S1167E 105
1518032006 148S1167E 105
1518032012 145S1152E 110
1518032012 145S1152E 110
1518032012 145S1152E 110
1518032018 145S1138E 115
1518032018 145S1138E 115
1518032018 145S1138E 115
1518032100 145S1124E 120
1518032100 145S1124E 120
1518032100 145S1124E 120
1518032106 148S1109E 125
1518032106 148S1109E 125
1518032106 148S1109E 125
1518032112 150S1095E 135
1518032112 150S1095E 135
1518032112 150S1095E 135
1518032118 155S1084E 140
1518032118 155S1084E 140
1518032118 155S1084E 140
1518032200 159S1074E 140
1518032200 159S1074E 140
1518032200 159S1074E 140
1518032206 167S1066E 135
1518032206 167S1066E 135
1518032206 167S1066E 135
1518032212 176S1063E 125
1518032212 176S1063E 125
1518032212 176S1063E 125
1518032218 188S1060E 115
1518032218 188S1060E 115
1518032218 188S1060E 115
1518032300 199S1059E 105
1518032300 199S1059E 105
1518032300 199S1059E 105
1518032306 212S1058E 95
1518032306 212S1058E 95
1518032306 212S1058E 95
1518032312 223S1060E 80
1518032312 223S1060E 80
1518032312 223S1060E 80
1518032318 237S1066E 60
1518032318 237S1066E 60
1518032400 253S1073E 55
1518032400 253S1073E 55
1518032406 269S1076E 35

2018-03-24 08:46

WTXS32 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 035
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 26.9S 107.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.9S 107.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 29.0S 108.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 27.4S 107.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 449 NM SOUTHWEST
OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE FULLY EXPOSED LLC HAS BECOME
MORE RAGGED AND ELONGATED AS THE MAIN CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
ERODED AND SHEARED SOUTHEASTWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THE LLC IN THE MSI LOOP THAT COINCIDED WELL WITH THE LOW REFLECTIVITY
CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 240554Z ATMS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS DEDUCED FROM THE 240103Z OSCAT BULLSEYE PASS
THAT SHOWED MAX WINDS OF 45 KNOTS AND THE 240241Z ASCAT PARTIAL PASS
THAT SHOWED MAX WINDS OF 35 KNOTS AND REFLECTS THE RAPID DEGRADATION.
TC MARCUS IS IN AN AREA OF STRONG (GREATER THAN 30 KNOT) VWS AND
COOLING SSTS (BELOW 25C) AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY
TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS
18 FEET.//

2018-03-24 02:31

WTXS32 PGTW 240300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 034//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 034
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 25.3S 107.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.3S 107.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 27.6S 108.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 29.8S 109.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

2018-03-24 02:16

WTXS32 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 034//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 034
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 25.3S 107.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.3S 107.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 27.6S 108.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 29.8S 109.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 31.8S 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 25.9S 107.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 414 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM WHICH IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHEARED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED
BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF A 232101Z GPM 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH
SHOWS THAT THE LLCC HAS BECOME DECOUPLED FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL
CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. ALL DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55
KNOTS IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES, AND AUTOMATED
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS OF T3.9. TC 15S IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING
AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA IN A HIGH VWS
ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS SOUTHEASTWARD
TRACK THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING RIDGE WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS IT
PASSES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND INTO INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. TC MARCUS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT JTWC FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.//

2018-03-24 01:46

WTXS52 PGTW 240300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180324010016
2018032400 15S MARCUS 034 01 160 17 SATL 060
T000 253S 1073E 055 R050 085 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R034
160 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 276S 1080E 045 R034 065 NE QD 195 SE QD 125 SW QD 055 NW QD
T024 298S 1090E 035 R034 065 NE QD 195 SE QD 125 SW QD 055 NW QD
T036 318S 1106E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 034
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 034
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 25.3S 107.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.3S 107.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 27.6S 108.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

2018-03-24 01:46

WTXS52 PGTW 240300
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180324010016
2018032400 15S MARCUS 034 01 160 17 SATL 060
T000 253S 1073E 055 R050 085 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 276S 1080E 045 R034 065 NE QD 195 SE QD 125 SW QD 055 NW QD
T024 298S 1090E 035 R034 065 NE QD 195 SE QD 125 SW QD 055 NW QD
T036 318S 1106E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 034
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 034
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 25.3S 107.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.3S 107.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 27.6S 108.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 29.8S 109.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 31.8S 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 25.9S 107.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 414 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.
//
1518031318 85S1287E 20
1518031400 88S1289E 20
1518031406 90S1292E 20
1518031412 90S1296E 20
1518031418 90S1300E 20
1518031500 90S1304E 25
1518031506 93S1313E 30
1518031512 96S1319E 30
1518031518 101S1323E 35
1518031600 105S1324E 40
1518031606 108S1322E 40
1518031612 112S1319E 40
1518031618 117S1316E 40
1518031700 124S1311E 45
1518031706 130S1300E 45
1518031712 135S1293E 45
1518031718 139S1286E 50
1518031718 139S1286E 50
1518031800 142S1278E 55
1518031800 142S1278E 55
1518031806 146S1266E 50
1518031806 146S1266E 50
1518031812 150S1253E 45
1518031818 150S1243E 50
1518031818 150S1243E 50
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031918 153S1199E 100
1518031918 153S1199E 100
1518031918 153S1199E 100
1518032000 151S1184E 105
1518032000 151S1184E 105
1518032000 151S1184E 105
1518032006 148S1167E 105
1518032006 148S1167E 105
1518032006 148S1167E 105
1518032012 145S1152E 110
1518032012 145S1152E 110
1518032012 145S1152E 110
1518032018 145S1138E 115
1518032018 145S1138E 115
1518032018 145S1138E 115
1518032100 145S1124E 120
1518032100 145S1124E 120
1518032100 145S1124E 120
1518032106 148S1109E 125
1518032106 148S1109E 125
1518032106 148S1109E 125
1518032112 150S1095E 135
1518032112 150S1095E 135
1518032112 150S1095E 135
1518032118 155S1084E 140
1518032118 155S1084E 140
1518032118 155S1084E 140
1518032200 159S1074E 140
1518032200 159S1074E 140
1518032200 159S1074E 140
1518032206 167S1066E 135
1518032206 167S1066E 135
1518032206 167S1066E 135
1518032212 176S1063E 125
1518032212 176S1063E 125
1518032212 176S1063E 125
1518032218 188S1060E 115
1518032218 188S1060E 115
1518032218 188S1060E 115
1518032300 199S1059E 105
1518032300 199S1059E 105
1518032300 199S1059E 105
1518032306 212S1058E 95
1518032306 212S1058E 95
1518032306 212S1058E 95
1518032312 223S1060E 80
1518032312 223S1060E 80
1518032312 223S1060E 80
1518032318 237S1066E 60
1518032318 237S1066E 60
1518032400 253S1073E 55
1518032400 253S1073E 55

2018-03-23 21:46

WTXS32 PGTW 232100 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 033//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 033A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 23.7S 106.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.7S 106.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 26.3S 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 28.7S 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 30.8S 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 24.3S 106.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 423 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY SHOWS WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN EYE FEATURE, BUT A 231445Z AMSU-
B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE LLCC HAS BEGUN TO
SEPARATE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE, LEADING TO
PLACEMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST THAN WHAT
THE IR IMAGERY WOULD SUGGEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES, AND AUTOMATED
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS OF T3.9 (59 KNOTS). TC 15S IS RAPIDLY
WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE SITUATED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING ALONG THE RIDGE PERIPHERY AND
WEAKEN AS IT PASSES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND INTO AN AREA
OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE RAPID WEAKENING TREND IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, LEADING TO
DISSIPATION BY TAU 36. FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT JTWC FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 240900Z AND 242100Z. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION:
INCORRECT TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION MENTIONED IN REMARKS
SECTION.//

2018-03-23 20:31

WTXS52 PGTW 232100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180323191937
2018032318 15S MARCUS 033 01 160 15 SATL 060
T000 237S 1066E 060 R050 105 NE QD 105 SE QD 075 SW QD 080 NW QD R034
170 NE QD 195 SE QD 145 SW QD 135 NW QD
T012 263S 1075E 045 R034 110 NE QD 190 SE QD 165 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 287S 1085E 035 R034 110 NE QD 165 SE QD 115 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 308S 1101E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 033
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 033
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 23.7S 106.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.7S 106.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 26.3S 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

2018-03-23 20:31

WTXS52 PGTW 232100
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180323191937
2018032318 15S MARCUS 033 01 160 15 SATL 060
T000 237S 1066E 060 R050 105 NE QD 105 SE QD 075 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 195 SE QD 145 SW QD 135 NW QD
T012 263S 1075E 045 R034 110 NE QD 190 SE QD 165 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 287S 1085E 035 R034 110 NE QD 165 SE QD 115 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 308S 1101E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 033
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 033
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 23.7S 106.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.7S 106.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 26.3S 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 28.7S 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 30.8S 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 24.3S 106.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 423 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 240900Z AND 242100Z.
//
1518031318 85S1287E 20
1518031400 88S1289E 20
1518031406 90S1292E 20
1518031412 90S1296E 20
1518031418 90S1300E 20
1518031500 90S1304E 25
1518031506 93S1313E 30
1518031512 96S1319E 30
1518031518 101S1323E 35
1518031600 105S1324E 40
1518031606 108S1322E 40
1518031612 112S1319E 40
1518031618 117S1316E 40
1518031700 124S1311E 45
1518031706 130S1300E 45
1518031712 135S1293E 45
1518031718 139S1286E 50
1518031718 139S1286E 50
1518031800 142S1278E 55
1518031800 142S1278E 55
1518031806 146S1266E 50
1518031806 146S1266E 50
1518031812 150S1253E 45
1518031818 150S1243E 50
1518031818 150S1243E 50
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031918 153S1199E 100
1518031918 153S1199E 100
1518031918 153S1199E 100
1518032000 151S1184E 105
1518032000 151S1184E 105
1518032000 151S1184E 105
1518032006 148S1167E 105
1518032006 148S1167E 105
1518032006 148S1167E 105
1518032012 145S1152E 110
1518032012 145S1152E 110
1518032012 145S1152E 110
1518032018 145S1138E 115
1518032018 145S1138E 115
1518032018 145S1138E 115
1518032100 145S1124E 120
1518032100 145S1124E 120
1518032100 145S1124E 120
1518032106 148S1109E 125
1518032106 148S1109E 125
1518032106 148S1109E 125
1518032112 150S1095E 135
1518032112 150S1095E 135
1518032112 150S1095E 135
1518032118 155S1084E 140
1518032118 155S1084E 140
1518032118 155S1084E 140
1518032200 159S1074E 140
1518032200 159S1074E 140
1518032200 159S1074E 140
1518032206 167S1066E 135
1518032206 167S1066E 135
1518032206 167S1066E 135
1518032212 176S1063E 125
1518032212 176S1063E 125
1518032212 176S1063E 125
1518032218 188S1060E 115
1518032218 188S1060E 115
1518032218 188S1060E 115
1518032300 199S1059E 105
1518032300 199S1059E 105
1518032300 199S1059E 105
1518032306 212S1058E 95
1518032306 212S1058E 95
1518032306 212S1058E 95
1518032312 223S1060E 80
1518032312 223S1060E 80
1518032312 223S1060E 80
1518032318 237S1066E 60
1518032318 237S1066E 60

2018-03-23 20:31

WTXS32 PGTW 232100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NR//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 22.3S 106.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.3S 106.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 25.0S 106.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-03-23 20:16

WTXS32 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NR//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 22.3S 106.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.3S 106.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 25.0S 106.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 27.1S 107.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 29.0S 107.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 23.0S 106.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 423 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY SHOWS WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN EYE FEATURE, BUT A 231445Z AMSU-
B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE LLCC HAS BEGUN TO
SEPARATE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE, LEADING TO
PLACEMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST THAN WHAT
THE IR IMAGERY WOULD SUGGEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES, AND AUTOMATED
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS OF T3.9 (59 KNOTS). TC 15S IS RAPIDLY
WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE SITUATED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING ALONG THE RIDGE PERIPHERY AND
WEAKEN AS IT PASSES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND INTO AN AREA
OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE RAPID WEAKENING TREND IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, LEADING TO
DISSIPATION BY TAU 36. FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT JTWC FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z.//

2018-03-23 14:46

WTXS52 PGTW 231500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180323132832
2018032312 15S MARCUS 032 01 170 11 SATL 030
T000 223S 1060E 080 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
095 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 185 SE QD
160 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 250S 1067E 060 R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R034
130 NE QD 185 SE QD 160 SW QD 095 NW QD
T024 271S 1071E 045 R034 065 NE QD 175 SE QD 115 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 290S 1077E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 22.3S 106.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

2018-03-23 14:46

WTXS52 PGTW 231500
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180323132832
2018032312 15S MARCUS 032 01 170 11 SATL 030
T000 223S 1060E 080 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 185 SE QD 160 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 250S 1067E 060 R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 185 SE QD 160 SW QD 095 NW QD
T024 271S 1071E 045 R034 065 NE QD 175 SE QD 115 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 290S 1077E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 22.3S 106.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.3S 106.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 25.0S 106.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 27.1S 107.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 29.0S 107.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 23.0S 106.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM WEST
OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z.//
1518031318 85S1287E 20
1518031400 88S1289E 20
1518031406 90S1292E 20
1518031412 90S1296E 20
1518031418 90S1300E 20
1518031500 90S1304E 25
1518031506 93S1313E 30
1518031512 96S1319E 30
1518031518 101S1323E 35
1518031600 105S1324E 40
1518031606 108S1322E 40
1518031612 112S1319E 40
1518031618 117S1316E 40
1518031700 124S1311E 45
1518031706 130S1300E 45
1518031712 135S1293E 45
1518031718 139S1286E 50
1518031718 139S1286E 50
1518031800 142S1278E 55
1518031800 142S1278E 55
1518031806 146S1266E 50
1518031806 146S1266E 50
1518031812 150S1253E 45
1518031818 150S1243E 50
1518031818 150S1243E 50
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031918 153S1199E 100
1518031918 153S1199E 100
1518031918 153S1199E 100
1518032000 151S1184E 105
1518032000 151S1184E 105
1518032000 151S1184E 105
1518032006 148S1167E 105
1518032006 148S1167E 105
1518032006 148S1167E 105
1518032012 145S1152E 110
1518032012 145S1152E 110
1518032012 145S1152E 110
1518032018 145S1138E 115
1518032018 145S1138E 115
1518032018 145S1138E 115
1518032100 145S1124E 120
1518032100 145S1124E 120
1518032100 145S1124E 120
1518032106 148S1109E 125
1518032106 148S1109E 125
1518032106 148S1109E 125
1518032112 150S1095E 135
1518032112 150S1095E 135
1518032112 150S1095E 135
1518032118 155S1084E 140
1518032118 155S1084E 140
1518032118 155S1084E 140
1518032200 159S1074E 140
1518032200 159S1074E 140
1518032200 159S1074E 140
1518032206 167S1066E 135
1518032206 167S1066E 135
1518032206 167S1066E 135
1518032212 176S1063E 125
1518032212 176S1063E 125
1518032212 176S1063E 125
1518032218 188S1060E 115
1518032218 188S1060E 115
1518032218 188S1060E 115
1518032300 199S1059E 105
1518032300 199S1059E 105
1518032300 199S1059E 105
1518032306 212S1058E 95
1518032306 212S1058E 95
1518032306 212S1058E 95
1518032312 223S1060E 80
1518032312 223S1060E 80
1518032312 223S1060E 80

2018-03-23 14:46

WTXS32 PGTW 231500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 22.3S 106.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.3S 106.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 25.0S 106.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-03-23 14:31

WTXS32 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 22.3S 106.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.3S 106.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 25.0S 106.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 27.1S 107.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 29.0S 107.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 23.0S 106.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM WEST
OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE
FIXES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES AND A 231134Z SSMIS 37 GHZ
IMAGE SHOWING A CLEAR CENTER FEATURE. THE INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY FIX DATA FROM CIMSS AND CIRA. TC
15S IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE SITUATED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING ALONG THE RIDGE PERIPHERY AND
WEAKEN AS IT PASSES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND INTO AN AREA
OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS RAPID WEAKENING TREND WILL
RESULT IN DISSIPATION BY TAU 36. FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
STRONG AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT JTWC
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z.//

2018-03-23 09:01

WTXS52 PGTW 230900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180323082714
2018032306 15S MARCUS 031 01 185 13 SATL 030
T000 212S 1058E 095 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
100 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 190 SE QD
145 SW QD 135 NW QD
T012 239S 1063E 075 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
075 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 160 SE QD
165 SW QD 105 NW QD
T024 264S 1070E 055 R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 015 NW QD R034
095 NE QD 210 SE QD 175 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 283S 1076E 040 R034 030 NE QD 150 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 304S 1088E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 031
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 031
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 21.2S 105.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

2018-03-23 09:01

WTXS52 PGTW 230900
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180323082714
2018032306 15S MARCUS 031 01 185 13 SATL 030
T000 212S 1058E 095 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 190 SE QD 145 SW QD 135 NW QD
T012 239S 1063E 075 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 160 SE QD 165 SW QD 105 NW QD
T024 264S 1070E 055 R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 210 SE QD 175 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 283S 1076E 040 R034 030 NE QD 150 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 304S 1088E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 031
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 031
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 21.2S 105.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2S 105.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 23.9S 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 26.4S 107.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 28.3S 107.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 30.4S 108.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 21.9S 105.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 467 NM WEST
OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z.
//
1518031318 85S1287E 20
1518031400 88S1289E 20
1518031406 90S1292E 20
1518031412 90S1296E 20
1518031418 90S1300E 20
1518031500 90S1304E 25
1518031506 93S1313E 30
1518031512 96S1319E 30
1518031518 101S1323E 35
1518031600 105S1324E 40
1518031606 108S1322E 40
1518031612 112S1319E 40
1518031618 117S1316E 40
1518031700 124S1311E 45
1518031706 130S1300E 45
1518031712 135S1293E 45
1518031718 139S1286E 50
1518031718 139S1286E 50
1518031800 142S1278E 55
1518031800 142S1278E 55
1518031806 146S1266E 50
1518031806 146S1266E 50
1518031812 150S1253E 45
1518031818 150S1243E 50
1518031818 150S1243E 50
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031918 153S1199E 100
1518031918 153S1199E 100
1518031918 153S1199E 100
1518032000 151S1184E 105
1518032000 151S1184E 105
1518032000 151S1184E 105
1518032006 148S1167E 105
1518032006 148S1167E 105
1518032006 148S1167E 105
1518032012 145S1152E 110
1518032012 145S1152E 110
1518032012 145S1152E 110
1518032018 145S1138E 115
1518032018 145S1138E 115
1518032018 145S1138E 115
1518032100 145S1124E 120
1518032100 145S1124E 120
1518032100 145S1124E 120
1518032106 148S1109E 125
1518032106 148S1109E 125
1518032106 148S1109E 125
1518032112 150S1095E 135
1518032112 150S1095E 135
1518032112 150S1095E 135
1518032118 155S1084E 140
1518032118 155S1084E 140
1518032118 155S1084E 140
1518032200 159S1074E 140
1518032200 159S1074E 140
1518032200 159S1074E 140
1518032206 167S1066E 135
1518032206 167S1066E 135
1518032206 167S1066E 135
1518032212 176S1063E 125
1518032212 176S1063E 125
1518032212 176S1063E 125
1518032218 188S1060E 115
1518032218 188S1060E 115
1518032218 188S1060E 115
1518032300 199S1059E 105
1518032300 199S1059E 105
1518032300 199S1059E 105
1518032306 212S1058E 95
1518032306 212S1058E 95
1518032306 212S1058E 95

2018-03-23 09:01

WTXS32 PGTW 230900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 031
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 21.2S 105.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2S 105.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 23.9S 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-03-23 09:01

WTXS32 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 031
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 21.2S 105.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2S 105.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 23.9S 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 26.4S 107.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 28.3S 107.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 30.4S 108.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 21.9S 105.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 467 NM WEST
OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT
SATELLITE FIXES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES. THE INTENSITY OF
95 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY FIX DATA FROM CIMSS AND
CIRA. TC 15S IS STEADILY WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE SITUATED OVER WESTERN
AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING ALONG THE RIDGE
PERIPHERY AND WEAKEN AS IT PASSES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER
AND INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS STEADY WEAKENING TREND WILL RESULT IN DISSIPATION BY TAU
48. NUMERICAL MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z.//

2018-03-23 02:46

WTXS52 PGTW 230300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180323020438
2018032300 15S MARCUS 030 01 185 11 SATL 035
T000 199S 1059E 105 R064 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
110 NE QD 120 SE QD 085 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 210 SE QD
155 SW QD 135 NW QD
T012 225S 1062E 085 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 165 SE QD
155 SW QD 125 NW QD
T024 251S 1068E 060 R050 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 035 NW QD R034
135 NE QD 185 SE QD 170 SW QD 115 NW QD
T036 273S 1075E 045 R034 080 NE QD 200 SE QD 140 SW QD 085 NW QD
T048 292S 1084E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 030
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 19.9S 105.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

2018-03-23 02:46

WTXS52 PGTW 230300
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180323020438
2018032300 15S MARCUS 030 01 185 11 SATL 035
T000 199S 1059E 105 R064 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 085 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 210 SE QD 155 SW QD 135 NW QD
T012 225S 1062E 085 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 165 SE QD 155 SW QD 125 NW QD
T024 251S 1068E 060 R050 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 185 SE QD 170 SW QD 115 NW QD
T036 273S 1075E 045 R034 080 NE QD 200 SE QD 140 SW QD 085 NW QD
T048 292S 1084E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 030
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 19.9S 105.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S 105.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.5S 106.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 25.1S 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 27.3S 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 29.2S 108.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 106.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 481 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z.
//
1518031318 85S1287E 20
1518031400 88S1289E 20
1518031406 90S1292E 20
1518031412 90S1296E 20
1518031418 90S1300E 20
1518031500 90S1304E 25
1518031506 93S1313E 30
1518031512 96S1319E 30
1518031518 101S1323E 35
1518031600 105S1324E 40
1518031606 108S1322E 40
1518031612 112S1319E 40
1518031618 117S1316E 40
1518031700 124S1311E 45
1518031706 130S1300E 45
1518031712 135S1293E 45
1518031718 139S1286E 50
1518031718 139S1286E 50
1518031800 142S1278E 55
1518031800 142S1278E 55
1518031806 146S1266E 50
1518031806 146S1266E 50
1518031812 150S1253E 45
1518031818 150S1243E 50
1518031818 150S1243E 50
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031918 153S1199E 100
1518031918 153S1199E 100
1518031918 153S1199E 100
1518032000 151S1184E 105
1518032000 151S1184E 105
1518032000 151S1184E 105
1518032006 148S1167E 105
1518032006 148S1167E 105
1518032006 148S1167E 105
1518032012 145S1152E 110
1518032012 145S1152E 110
1518032012 145S1152E 110
1518032018 145S1138E 115
1518032018 145S1138E 115
1518032018 145S1138E 115
1518032100 145S1124E 120
1518032100 145S1124E 120
1518032100 145S1124E 120
1518032106 148S1109E 125
1518032106 148S1109E 125
1518032106 148S1109E 125
1518032112 150S1095E 135
1518032112 150S1095E 135
1518032112 150S1095E 135
1518032118 155S1084E 140
1518032118 155S1084E 140
1518032118 155S1084E 140
1518032200 159S1074E 140
1518032200 159S1074E 140
1518032200 159S1074E 140
1518032206 167S1066E 135
1518032206 167S1066E 135
1518032206 167S1066E 135
1518032212 176S1063E 125
1518032212 176S1063E 125
1518032212 176S1063E 125
1518032218 188S1060E 115
1518032218 188S1060E 115
1518032218 188S1060E 115
1518032300 199S1059E 105
1518032300 199S1059E 105
1518032300 199S1059E 105

2018-03-23 02:31

WTXS32 PGTW 230300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 030//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 19.9S 105.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S 105.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.5S 106.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-03-23 02:31

WTXS32 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 030//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 19.9S 105.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S 105.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.5S 106.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 25.1S 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 27.3S 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 29.2S 108.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 106.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 481 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z.
//

2018-03-22 20:16

WTXS52 PGTW 222100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180322193648
2018032218 15S MARCUS 029 01 195 12 SATL 030
T000 188S 1060E 120 R064 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
100 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 175 SE QD
150 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 211S 1059E 100 R064 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
100 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 170 SE QD
150 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 238S 1064E 080 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 085 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 170 SE QD
170 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 265S 1073E 055 R050 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
110 NE QD 225 SE QD 205 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 285S 1080E 040 R034 030 NE QD 155 SE QD 130 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 330S 1120E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 029
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 18.8S 106.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

2018-03-22 20:16

WTXS52 PGTW 222100
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180322193648
2018032218 15S MARCUS 029 01 195 12 SATL 030
T000 188S 1060E 120 R064 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 175 SE QD 150 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 211S 1059E 100 R064 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 238S 1064E 080 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 085 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 170 SE QD 170 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 265S 1073E 055 R050 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 225 SE QD 205 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 285S 1080E 040 R034 030 NE QD 155 SE QD 130 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 330S 1120E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 029
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 18.8S 106.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S 106.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 21.1S 105.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 23.8S 106.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 26.5S 107.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 28.5S 108.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 33.0S 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 106.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 501 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z.
//
1518031318 85S1287E 20
1518031400 88S1289E 20
1518031406 90S1292E 20
1518031412 90S1296E 20
1518031418 90S1300E 20
1518031500 90S1304E 25
1518031506 93S1313E 30
1518031512 96S1319E 30
1518031518 101S1323E 35
1518031600 105S1324E 40
1518031606 108S1322E 40
1518031612 112S1319E 40
1518031618 117S1316E 40
1518031700 124S1311E 45
1518031706 130S1300E 45
1518031712 135S1293E 45
1518031718 139S1286E 50
1518031718 139S1286E 50
1518031800 142S1278E 55
1518031800 142S1278E 55
1518031806 146S1266E 50
1518031806 146S1266E 50
1518031812 150S1253E 45
1518031818 150S1243E 50
1518031818 150S1243E 50
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031918 153S1199E 100
1518031918 153S1199E 100
1518031918 153S1199E 100
1518032000 151S1184E 105
1518032000 151S1184E 105
1518032000 151S1184E 105
1518032006 148S1167E 105
1518032006 148S1167E 105
1518032006 148S1167E 105
1518032012 145S1152E 110
1518032012 145S1152E 110
1518032012 145S1152E 110
1518032018 145S1138E 115
1518032018 145S1138E 115
1518032018 145S1138E 115
1518032100 145S1124E 120
1518032100 145S1124E 120
1518032100 145S1124E 120
1518032106 148S1109E 125
1518032106 148S1109E 125
1518032106 148S1109E 125
1518032112 150S1095E 135
1518032112 150S1095E 135
1518032112 150S1095E 135
1518032118 155S1084E 140
1518032118 155S1084E 140
1518032118 155S1084E 140
1518032200 159S1074E 140
1518032200 159S1074E 140
1518032200 159S1074E 140
1518032206 167S1066E 135
1518032206 167S1066E 135
1518032206 167S1066E 135
1518032212 176S1063E 125
1518032212 176S1063E 125
1518032212 176S1063E 125
1518032218 188S1060E 120
1518032218 188S1060E 120
1518032218 188S1060E 120

2018-03-22 20:16

WTXS32 PGTW 222100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 18.8S 106.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S 106.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 21.1S 105.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-03-22 20:16

WTXS32 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 18.8S 106.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S 106.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 21.1S 105.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 23.8S 106.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 26.5S 107.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 28.5S 108.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 33.0S 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 106.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 501 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A HIGHLY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A
PREVIOUSLY OBSERVABLE EYE FEATURE NOW COMPLETELY CLOUD FILLED.
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 15S IS UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE WITH THE INNER EYEWALL VIRTUALLY
INDISTINGUISHABLE IN AN 221507Z 89 GHZ MHS IMAGE AND AN OUTER RING
OF CONVECTION NEARLY CLOSED OFF WITH EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN MOST
EDGE SHOWING A BREAK IN THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 120 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY
CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T 6.0 TO T6.5 (127
TO 115 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY LOW WIND SHEAR AND
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW DIRECTLY ABOVE THE SYSTEM FEEDING INTO A
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SSTS ARE ALSO VERY WARM NEAR 28
CELSIUS. TC 15S IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
BOUNDARY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER AUSTRALIA. TC 15S IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD AND INTO COOLER
WATERS TURNING SLIGHTLY SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 48. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE AS TC 15S APPROACHES THE MID
LATITUDE WESTERLY JET. DEGRADING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND TC 15S WILL FULLY DISSIPATE OVER WATER
SOMETIME BEFORE TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z.//

2018-03-22 14:16

WTXS52 PGTW 221500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180322131055
2018032212 15S MARCUS 028 01 200 09 SATL 020
T000 176S 1063E 125 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
095 NE QD 105 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 170 SE QD
155 SW QD 150 NW QD
T012 198S 1058E 110 R064 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 055 NW QD R050
105 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 175 SE QD
150 SW QD 145 NW QD
T024 224S 1061E 090 R064 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 160 SE QD
155 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 249S 1069E 065 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 185 SE QD
175 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 268S 1075E 050 R050 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 040 SW QD 055 NW QD R034
085 NE QD 195 SE QD 145 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 304S 1099E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 17.6S 106.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

2018-03-22 14:16

WTXS52 PGTW 221500
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180322131055
2018032212 15S MARCUS 028 01 200 09 SATL 020
T000 176S 1063E 125 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 105 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 170 SE QD 155 SW QD 150 NW QD
T012 198S 1058E 110 R064 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 175 SE QD 150 SW QD 145 NW QD
T024 224S 1061E 090 R064 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 160 SE QD 155 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 249S 1069E 065 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 185 SE QD 175 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 268S 1075E 050 R050 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 040 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 195 SE QD 145 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 304S 1099E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 17.6S 106.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 106.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 19.8S 105.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.4S 106.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 24.9S 106.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 26.8S 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 30.4S 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 106.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 522 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.//
1518031318 85S1287E 20
1518031400 88S1289E 20
1518031406 90S1292E 20
1518031412 90S1296E 20
1518031418 90S1300E 20
1518031500 90S1304E 25
1518031506 93S1313E 30
1518031512 96S1319E 30
1518031518 101S1323E 35
1518031600 105S1324E 40
1518031606 108S1322E 40
1518031612 112S1319E 40
1518031618 117S1316E 40
1518031700 124S1311E 45
1518031706 130S1300E 45
1518031712 135S1293E 45
1518031718 139S1286E 50
1518031718 139S1286E 50
1518031800 142S1278E 55
1518031800 142S1278E 55
1518031806 146S1266E 50
1518031806 146S1266E 50
1518031812 150S1253E 45
1518031818 150S1243E 50
1518031818 150S1243E 50
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031918 153S1199E 100
1518031918 153S1199E 100
1518031918 153S1199E 100
1518032000 151S1184E 105
1518032000 151S1184E 105
1518032000 151S1184E 105
1518032006 148S1167E 105
1518032006 148S1167E 105
1518032006 148S1167E 105
1518032012 145S1152E 110
1518032012 145S1152E 110
1518032012 145S1152E 110
1518032018 145S1138E 115
1518032018 145S1138E 115
1518032018 145S1138E 115
1518032100 145S1124E 120
1518032100 145S1124E 120
1518032100 145S1124E 120
1518032106 148S1109E 125
1518032106 148S1109E 125
1518032106 148S1109E 125
1518032112 150S1095E 135
1518032112 150S1095E 135
1518032112 150S1095E 135
1518032118 155S1084E 140
1518032118 155S1084E 140
1518032118 155S1084E 140
1518032200 159S1074E 140
1518032200 159S1074E 140
1518032200 159S1074E 140
1518032206 167S1066E 135
1518032206 167S1066E 135
1518032206 167S1066E 135
1518032212 176S1063E 125
1518032212 176S1063E 125
1518032212 176S1063E 125

2018-03-22 14:16

WTXS32 PGTW 221500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 17.6S 106.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 106.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 19.8S 105.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-03-22 14:16

WTXS32 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 17.6S 106.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 106.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 19.8S 105.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.4S 106.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 24.9S 106.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 26.8S 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 30.4S 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 106.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 522 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN 18 NM EYE WITH WARMING CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURES ON THE WESTERN SIDE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 221139Z SSMIS 91 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS TC 15S IS UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 125 KNOTS, BASED ON MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.5 (127 KNOTS).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), DECENT
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SSTS
(28C). TC 15S IS NOW TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 72 AS TC 15S WEAKENS DUE
TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE OVER WATER AROUND TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH TIGHT GROUPING BETWEEN SOLUTIONS,
LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.//

2018-03-22 08:16

WTXS52 PGTW 220900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180322014549
2018032200 15S MARCUS 026 01 245 10 SATL 020
T000 159S 1074E 140 R064 045 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 105 SE QD 105 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 185 SE QD
180 SW QD 135 NW QD
T012 174S 1061E 130 R064 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 060 NW QD R050
105 NE QD 115 SE QD 105 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 190 SE QD
165 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 195S 1055E 120 R064 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R050
105 NE QD 110 SE QD 095 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 185 SE QD
165 SW QD 145 NW QD
T036 221S 1057E 110 R064 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
100 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 180 SE QD
175 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 247S 1066E 075 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
075 NE QD 075 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 215 SE QD
205 SW QD 135 NW QD
T072 285S 1082E 040 R034 135 NE QD 165 SE QD 160 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 331S 1140E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 16.7S 106.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

2018-03-22 08:16

WTXS52 PGTW 220900
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180322014549
2018032200 15S MARCUS 026 01 245 10 SATL 020
T000 159S 1074E 140 R064 045 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 105 SE QD 105 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 185 SE QD 180 SW QD 135 NW QD
T012 174S 1061E 130 R064 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 115 SE QD 105 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 190 SE QD 165 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 195S 1055E 120 R064 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 110 SE QD 095 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 185 SE QD 165 SW QD 145 NW QD
T036 221S 1057E 110 R064 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 180 SE QD 175 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 247S 1066E 075 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 075 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 215 SE QD 205 SW QD 135 NW QD
T072 285S 1082E 040 R034 135 NE QD 165 SE QD 160 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 331S 1140E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 16.7S 106.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 106.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 18.4S 105.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 20.7S 105.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 23.3S 106.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 25.5S 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 29.6S 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 106.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 541 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 52 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.//
1518031318 85S1287E 20
1518031400 88S1289E 20
1518031406 90S1292E 20
1518031412 90S1296E 20
1518031418 90S1300E 20
1518031500 90S1304E 25
1518031506 93S1313E 30
1518031512 96S1319E 30
1518031518 101S1323E 35
1518031600 105S1324E 40
1518031606 108S1322E 40
1518031612 112S1319E 40
1518031618 117S1316E 40
1518031700 124S1311E 45
1518031706 130S1300E 45
1518031712 135S1293E 45
1518031718 139S1286E 50
1518031718 139S1286E 50
1518031800 142S1278E 55
1518031800 142S1278E 55
1518031806 146S1266E 50
1518031806 146S1266E 50
1518031812 150S1253E 45
1518031818 150S1243E 50
1518031818 150S1243E 50
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031918 153S1199E 100
1518031918 153S1199E 100
1518031918 153S1199E 100
1518032000 151S1184E 105
1518032000 151S1184E 105
1518032000 151S1184E 105
1518032006 148S1167E 105
1518032006 148S1167E 105
1518032006 148S1167E 105
1518032012 145S1152E 110
1518032012 145S1152E 110
1518032012 145S1152E 110
1518032018 145S1138E 115
1518032018 145S1138E 115
1518032018 145S1138E 115
1518032100 145S1124E 120
1518032100 145S1124E 120
1518032100 145S1124E 120
1518032106 148S1109E 125
1518032106 148S1109E 125
1518032106 148S1109E 125
1518032112 150S1095E 135
1518032112 150S1095E 135
1518032112 150S1095E 135
1518032118 155S1084E 140
1518032118 155S1084E 140
1518032118 155S1084E 140
1518032200 159S1074E 140
1518032200 159S1074E 140
1518032200 159S1074E 140
1518032206 167S1066E 140
1518032206 167S1066E 140
1518032206 167S1066E 140

2018-03-22 02:46

WTXS52 PGTW 220300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180322014549
2018032200 15S MARCUS 026 01 245 10 SATL 020
T000 159S 1074E 140 R064 045 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 105 SE QD 105 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 185 SE QD
180 SW QD 135 NW QD
T012 174S 1061E 130 R064 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 060 NW QD R050
105 NE QD 115 SE QD 105 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 190 SE QD
165 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 195S 1055E 120 R064 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R050
105 NE QD 110 SE QD 095 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 185 SE QD
165 SW QD 145 NW QD
T036 221S 1057E 110 R064 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
100 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 180 SE QD
175 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 247S 1066E 075 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
075 NE QD 075 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 215 SE QD
205 SW QD 135 NW QD
T072 285S 1082E 040 R034 135 NE QD 165 SE QD 160 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 331S 1140E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 026
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 15.9S 107.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

2018-03-22 02:46

WTXS52 PGTW 220300
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180322014549
2018032200 15S MARCUS 026 01 245 10 SATL 020
T000 159S 1074E 140 R064 045 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 105 SE QD 105 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 185 SE QD 180 SW QD 135 NW QD
T012 174S 1061E 130 R064 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 115 SE QD 105 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 190 SE QD 165 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 195S 1055E 120 R064 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 110 SE QD 095 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 185 SE QD 165 SW QD 145 NW QD
T036 221S 1057E 110 R064 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 180 SE QD 175 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 247S 1066E 075 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 075 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 215 SE QD 205 SW QD 135 NW QD
T072 285S 1082E 040 R034 135 NE QD 165 SE QD 160 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 331S 1140E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 026
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 15.9S 107.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 107.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.4S 106.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 19.5S 105.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.1S 105.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 24.7S 106.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 28.5S 108.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 33.1S 114.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 107.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 52 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z.
//
1518031318 85S1287E 20
1518031400 88S1289E 20
1518031406 90S1292E 20
1518031412 90S1296E 20
1518031418 90S1300E 20
1518031500 90S1304E 25
1518031506 93S1313E 30
1518031512 96S1319E 30
1518031518 101S1323E 35
1518031600 105S1324E 40
1518031606 108S1322E 40
1518031612 112S1319E 40
1518031618 117S1316E 40
1518031700 124S1311E 45
1518031706 130S1300E 45
1518031712 135S1293E 45
1518031718 139S1286E 50
1518031718 139S1286E 50
1518031800 142S1278E 55
1518031800 142S1278E 55
1518031806 146S1266E 50
1518031806 146S1266E 50
1518031812 150S1253E 45
1518031818 150S1243E 50
1518031818 150S1243E 50
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031918 153S1199E 100
1518031918 153S1199E 100
1518031918 153S1199E 100
1518032000 151S1184E 105
1518032000 151S1184E 105
1518032000 151S1184E 105
1518032006 148S1167E 105
1518032006 148S1167E 105
1518032006 148S1167E 105
1518032012 145S1152E 110
1518032012 145S1152E 110
1518032012 145S1152E 110
1518032018 145S1138E 115
1518032018 145S1138E 115
1518032018 145S1138E 115
1518032100 145S1124E 120
1518032100 145S1124E 120
1518032100 145S1124E 120
1518032106 148S1109E 125
1518032106 148S1109E 125
1518032106 148S1109E 125
1518032112 150S1095E 135
1518032112 150S1095E 135
1518032112 150S1095E 135
1518032118 155S1084E 140
1518032118 155S1084E 140
1518032118 155S1084E 140
1518032200 159S1074E 140
1518032200 159S1074E 140
1518032200 159S1074E 140

2018-03-22 02:46

WTXS32 PGTW 220300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 15.9S 107.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 107.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.4S 106.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-03-22 02:46

WTXS32 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 15.9S 107.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 107.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.4S 106.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 19.5S 105.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.1S 105.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 24.7S 106.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 28.5S 108.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 33.1S 114.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 107.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A TIGHTLY WOUND SYSTEM WITH DEEP BANDING
CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A 12 NM EYE FEATURE THAT HAS COOLED
SLIGHTLY IN THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
140 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES REPORTING T7.0 (140 KNOTS), HOWEVER
RECENT DVORAK DATA-T ANALYSES HAVE STARTED TO DECREASE SUGGESTING
THAT TC 15S HAS BEGUN ITS WEAKENING TREND. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT RADIAL
OUTFLOW ALOFT FEEDING INTO BOTH EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNELS. A POINT SOURCE ANALYZED TO THE NORTHEAST IS CREATING SOME
CONVERGENCE AND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ON THIS SIDE. SSTS IN THE REGION
ARE ALSO VERY SUPPORTIVE NEAR 30 CELSIUS, HOWEVER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
IS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH. TC 15S IS NOW TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWEST AS
IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT FURTHER POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS INTO
COOLER WATERS. INITIALLY SSTS DECREASE ONLY MARGINALLY, HOWEVER
BEYOND TAU 36 THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DECREASES RAPIDLY INTO
UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS. NEAR TAU 48 TC 15S WILL APPROACH THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY JET AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BEGIN RAPIDLY
INCREASING. DUE TO THESE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TC 15S
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 48. TC 15S WILL TURN
SOUTHEASTWARD AND DISSIPATE OVER WATER SOMETIME BEFORE TAU 96.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIGHT
GROUPING BETWEEN SOLUTIONS. OVERALL THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 52
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z.//

2018-03-21 20:46

WTXS52 PGTW 212100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180321194305
2018032118 15S MARCUS 025 01 245 12 SATL 020
T000 155S 1084E 140 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 155 SE QD
150 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 167S 1067E 135 R064 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD R050
105 NE QD 115 SE QD 110 SW QD 095 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD
175 SW QD 165 NW QD
T024 186S 1058E 125 R064 075 NE QD 085 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R050
120 NE QD 125 SE QD 105 SW QD 095 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 195 SE QD
170 SW QD 170 NW QD
T036 209S 1056E 115 R064 080 NE QD 085 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD R050
115 NE QD 115 SE QD 105 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 190 SE QD
180 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 236S 1062E 090 R064 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
095 NE QD 090 SE QD 095 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 205 SE QD
220 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 279S 1079E 045 R034 055 NE QD 205 SE QD 160 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 316S 1113E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 025
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 15.5S 108.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

2018-03-21 20:46

WTXS52 PGTW 212100
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180321194305
2018032118 15S MARCUS 025 01 245 12 SATL 020
T000 155S 1084E 140 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 155 SE QD 150 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 167S 1067E 135 R064 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 115 SE QD 110 SW QD 095 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD 175 SW QD 165 NW QD
T024 186S 1058E 125 R064 075 NE QD 085 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 125 SE QD 105 SW QD 095 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 195 SE QD 170 SW QD 170 NW QD
T036 209S 1056E 115 R064 080 NE QD 085 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD R050 115 NE QD 115 SE QD 105 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 236S 1062E 090 R064 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 090 SE QD 095 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 205 SE QD 220 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 279S 1079E 045 R034 055 NE QD 205 SE QD 160 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 316S 1113E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 025
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 15.5S 108.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 108.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 16.7S 106.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 18.6S 105.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 20.9S 105.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 23.6S 106.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 27.9S 107.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 31.6S 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 108.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 521 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 52 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z.
//
1518031318 85S1287E 20
1518031400 88S1289E 20
1518031406 90S1292E 20
1518031412 90S1296E 20
1518031418 90S1300E 20
1518031500 90S1304E 25
1518031506 93S1313E 30
1518031512 96S1319E 30
1518031518 101S1323E 35
1518031600 105S1324E 40
1518031606 108S1322E 40
1518031612 112S1319E 40
1518031618 117S1316E 40
1518031700 124S1311E 45
1518031706 130S1300E 45
1518031712 135S1293E 45
1518031718 139S1286E 50
1518031718 139S1286E 50
1518031800 142S1278E 55
1518031800 142S1278E 55
1518031806 146S1266E 50
1518031806 146S1266E 50
1518031812 150S1253E 45
1518031818 150S1243E 50
1518031818 150S1243E 50
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031918 153S1199E 100
1518031918 153S1199E 100
1518031918 153S1199E 100
1518032000 151S1184E 105
1518032000 151S1184E 105
1518032000 151S1184E 105
1518032006 148S1167E 105
1518032006 148S1167E 105
1518032006 148S1167E 105
1518032012 145S1152E 110
1518032012 145S1152E 110
1518032012 145S1152E 110
1518032018 145S1138E 115
1518032018 145S1138E 115
1518032018 145S1138E 115
1518032100 145S1124E 120
1518032100 145S1124E 120
1518032100 145S1124E 120
1518032106 148S1109E 125
1518032106 148S1109E 125
1518032106 148S1109E 125
1518032112 150S1095E 135
1518032112 150S1095E 135
1518032112 150S1095E 135
1518032118 155S1084E 140
1518032118 155S1084E 140
1518032118 155S1084E 140

2018-03-21 20:46

WTXS32 PGTW 212100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 15.5S 108.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 108.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 16.7S 106.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-03-21 20:46

WTXS32 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 15.5S 108.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 108.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 16.7S 106.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 18.6S 105.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 20.9S 105.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 23.6S 106.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 27.9S 107.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 31.6S 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 108.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 521 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A TIGHTLY WOUND SYSTEM WITH DEEP BANDING
CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A 17 NM EYE FEATURE, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 140 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES REPORTING T7.0 (140 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT RADIAL
OUTFLOW ALOFT FEEDING INTO BOTH EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNELS. A POINT SOURCE ANALYZED TO THE NORTHEAST IS CREATING SOME
CONVERGENCE AND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ON THIS SIDE. SSTS IN THE REGION
ARE ALSO VERY SUPPORTIVE NEAR 30 CELSIUS, HOWEVER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
IS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH SUGGESTING TC 15S WILL NOT INTENSIFY
FURTHER. TC 15S IS NOW TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWEST AS IT ROUNDS THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
FURTHER POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS INTO COOLER WATERS.
INITIALLY SSTS DECREASE ONLY MARGINALLY, HOWEVER BEYOND TAU 36 THE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DECREASES RAPIDLY INTO UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS.
NEAR TAU 48 TC 15S WILL APPROACH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY JET AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BEGIN RAPIDLY INCREASING. DUE TO THESE
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TC 15S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 48. TC 15S WILL TURN SOUTHEASTWARD AND DISSIPATE
OVER WATER SOMETIME BEFORE TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIGHT GROUPING BETWEEN SOLUTIONS.
OVERALL THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 52 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z.//

2018-03-21 14:16

WTXS52 PGTW 211500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180321125030
2018032112 15S MARCUS 024 01 260 15 SATL 010
T000 151S 1094E 130 R064 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 105 SE QD 100 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 195 SE QD
195 SW QD 135 NW QD
T012 161S 1075E 140 R064 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 070 NW QD R050
100 NE QD 130 SE QD 105 SW QD 095 NW QD R034 205 NE QD 210 SE QD
175 SW QD 165 NW QD
T024 177S 1061E 130 R064 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW QD 070 NW QD R050
110 NE QD 120 SE QD 105 SW QD 095 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD
175 SW QD 165 NW QD
T036 198S 1056E 120 R064 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R050
120 NE QD 120 SE QD 105 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 205 NE QD 195 SE QD
175 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 224S 1057E 105 R064 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R050
110 NE QD 110 SE QD 105 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD
205 SW QD 155 NW QD
T072 268S 1074E 055 R050 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R034
100 NE QD 250 SE QD 195 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 304S 1104E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 15.1S 109.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

2018-03-21 14:16

WTXS52 PGTW 211500
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180321125030
2018032112 15S MARCUS 024 01 260 15 SATL 010
T000 151S 1094E 130 R064 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 105 SE QD 100 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 195 SE QD 195 SW QD 135 NW QD
T012 161S 1075E 140 R064 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 105 SW QD 095 NW QD R034 205 NE QD 210 SE QD 175 SW QD 165 NW QD
T024 177S 1061E 130 R064 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 105 SW QD 095 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD 175 SW QD 165 NW QD
T036 198S 1056E 120 R064 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 105 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 205 NE QD 195 SE QD 175 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 224S 1057E 105 R064 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 105 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD 205 SW QD 155 NW QD
T072 268S 1074E 055 R050 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 250 SE QD 195 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 304S 1104E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 15.1S 109.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 109.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.1S 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.7S 106.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 19.8S 105.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.4S 105.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 26.8S 107.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 30.4S 110.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 108.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 508 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 211200Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z
AND 221500Z.//
1518031318 85S1287E 20
1518031400 88S1289E 20
1518031406 90S1292E 20
1518031412 90S1296E 20
1518031418 90S1300E 20
1518031500 90S1304E 25
1518031506 93S1313E 30
1518031512 96S1319E 30
1518031518 101S1323E 35
1518031600 105S1324E 40
1518031606 108S1322E 40
1518031612 112S1319E 40
1518031618 117S1316E 40
1518031700 124S1311E 45
1518031706 130S1300E 45
1518031712 135S1293E 45
1518031718 139S1286E 50
1518031718 139S1286E 50
1518031800 142S1278E 55
1518031800 142S1278E 55
1518031806 146S1266E 50
1518031806 146S1266E 50
1518031812 150S1253E 45
1518031818 150S1243E 50
1518031818 150S1243E 50
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031918 153S1199E 100
1518031918 153S1199E 100
1518031918 153S1199E 100
1518032000 151S1184E 105
1518032000 151S1184E 105
1518032000 151S1184E 105
1518032006 148S1167E 105
1518032006 148S1167E 105
1518032006 148S1167E 105
1518032012 145S1152E 110
1518032012 145S1152E 110
1518032012 145S1152E 110
1518032018 145S1138E 115
1518032018 145S1138E 115
1518032018 145S1138E 115
1518032100 144S1124E 120
1518032100 144S1124E 120
1518032100 144S1124E 120
1518032106 148S1109E 125
1518032106 148S1109E 125
1518032106 148S1109E 125
1518032112 151S1094E 130
1518032112 151S1094E 130
1518032112 151S1094E 130

2018-03-21 14:16

WTXS32 PGTW 211500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 15.1S 109.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 109.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.1S 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-03-21 14:16

WTXS32 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 15.1S 109.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 109.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.1S 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.7S 106.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 19.8S 105.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.4S 105.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 26.8S 107.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 30.4S 110.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 108.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 508 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
BECOME MORE COMPACT AND CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY AS DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A SHARPLY OUTLINED 20-NM EYE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURES IN THE MSI AND IN THE 211153Z
SSMIS 37 GHZ PASS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T6.5 TO
T7.0. THE SYSTEM IS IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS,
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW AND VERY WARM (29-30C) SSTS. TC 15S IS
BEGINNING TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STEERING STR. AFTER
PEAKING AT 140 KNOTS NEAR TAU 12, IT WILL BEGIN TO RECURVE SOUTHWARD
AND GRADUALLY THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLING
SSTS. AFTER TAU 48, TC MARCUS WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD
PERTH BUT WILL DISSIPATE OFFSHORE BY TAU 96. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC
GUIDANCE REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 50
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z.//

2018-03-21 08:16

WTXS52 PGTW 210900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180321070016
2018032106 15S MARCUS 023 02 255 15 SATL 010
T000 148S 1109E 125 R064 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
085 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 175 SE QD
145 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 155S 1087E 135 R064 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R050
095 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 210 SE QD
170 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 168S 1070E 130 R064 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD R050
105 NE QD 115 SE QD 105 SW QD 095 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 205 SE QD
175 SW QD 160 NW QD
T036 189S 1060E 125 R064 075 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R050
115 NE QD 115 SE QD 105 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 190 SE QD
175 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 212S 1057E 115 R064 075 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R050
115 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 185 SE QD
185 SW QD 155 NW QD
T072 253S 1067E 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 240 SE QD
205 SW QD 125 NW QD
T096 287S 1086E 040
T120 322S 1139E 025
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 14.8S 110.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM

2018-03-21 08:16

WTXS52 PGTW 210900
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180321070016
2018032106 15S MARCUS 023 02 255 15 SATL 010
T000 148S 1109E 125 R064 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 175 SE QD 145 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 155S 1087E 135 R064 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 210 SE QD 170 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 168S 1070E 130 R064 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 115 SE QD 105 SW QD 095 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 205 SE QD 175 SW QD 160 NW QD
T036 189S 1060E 125 R064 075 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R050 115 NE QD 115 SE QD 105 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 190 SE QD 175 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 212S 1057E 115 R064 075 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 115 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 185 SE QD 185 SW QD 155 NW QD
T072 253S 1067E 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 240 SE QD 205 SW QD 125 NW QD
T096 287S 1086E 040
T120 322S 1139E 025
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 14.8S 110.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 110.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 15.5S 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 16.8S 107.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 18.9S 106.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 21.2S 105.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 25.3S 106.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 28.7S 108.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 32.2S 113.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 110.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 485 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 49 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z.//
1518031318 85S1287E 20
1518031400 88S1289E 20
1518031406 90S1292E 20
1518031412 90S1296E 20
1518031418 90S1300E 20
1518031500 90S1304E 25
1518031506 93S1313E 30
1518031512 96S1319E 30
1518031518 101S1323E 35
1518031600 105S1324E 40
1518031606 108S1322E 40
1518031612 112S1319E 40
1518031618 117S1316E 40
1518031700 124S1311E 45
1518031706 130S1300E 45
1518031712 135S1293E 45
1518031718 139S1286E 50
1518031718 139S1286E 50
1518031800 142S1278E 55
1518031800 142S1278E 55
1518031806 146S1266E 50
1518031806 146S1266E 50
1518031812 150S1253E 45
1518031818 150S1243E 50
1518031818 150S1243E 50
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031918 153S1199E 100
1518031918 153S1199E 100
1518031918 153S1199E 100
1518032000 151S1184E 105
1518032000 151S1184E 105
1518032000 151S1184E 105
1518032006 148S1167E 105
1518032006 148S1167E 105
1518032006 148S1167E 105
1518032012 145S1152E 110
1518032012 145S1152E 110
1518032012 145S1152E 110
1518032018 145S1138E 115
1518032018 145S1138E 115
1518032018 145S1138E 115
1518032100 144S1124E 120
1518032100 144S1124E 120
1518032100 144S1124E 120
1518032106 148S1109E 125
1518032106 148S1109E 125
1518032106 148S1109E 125

2018-03-21 08:16

WTXS32 PGTW 210900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 14.8S 110.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 110.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 15.5S 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-03-21 08:16

WTXS32 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 14.8S 110.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 110.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 15.5S 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 16.8S 107.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 18.9S 106.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 21.2S 105.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 25.3S 106.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 28.7S 108.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 32.2S 113.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 110.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 485 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI
SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY AS DEEP SYMMETRICAL
CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPED EVEN TIGHTER INTO A SHARPLY OUTLINED 12-NM
EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN THE MSI WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T6.5 (127 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC 15S IS BEGINNING
TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STEERING STR. AFTER PEAKING AT 135
KNOTS NEAR TAU 12, IT WILL BEGIN TO RECURVE SOUTHWARD AND GRADUALLY
THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS. AFTER TAU
96, TC MARCUS WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD PERTH BUT WILL
DISSIPATE OFFSHORE BY TAU 120. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE REMAIN
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 49 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z.//

2018-03-21 02:46

WTXS52 PGTW 210300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180321013048
2018032100 15S MARCUS 022 02 275 15 SATL 015
T000 145S 1123E 120 R064 035 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 100 SE QD 095 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 170 SE QD
170 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 150S 1098E 125 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 100 SE QD 095 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 200 SE QD
160 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 160S 1079E 130 R064 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R050
095 NE QD 125 SE QD 105 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 200 SE QD
170 SW QD 145 NW QD
T036 177S 1066E 125 R064 065 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R050
100 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 190 SE QD
165 SW QD 145 NW QD
T048 197S 1061E 115 R064 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R050
100 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 180 SE QD
165 SW QD 145 NW QD
T072 237S 1064E 080 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 075 SE QD 055 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 195 SE QD
210 SW QD 125 NW QD
T096 270S 1072E 040 R034 050 NE QD 100 SE QD 095 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 300S 1101E 025
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 022
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 14.5S 112.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 15 KTS

2018-03-21 02:46

WTXS52 PGTW 210300
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180321013048
2018032100 15S MARCUS 022 02 275 15 SATL 015
T000 145S 1123E 120 R064 035 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 095 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 170 SE QD 170 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 150S 1098E 125 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 095 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 160S 1079E 130 R064 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 125 SE QD 105 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 200 SE QD 170 SW QD 145 NW QD
T036 177S 1066E 125 R064 065 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 190 SE QD 165 SW QD 145 NW QD
T048 197S 1061E 115 R064 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 180 SE QD 165 SW QD 145 NW QD
T072 237S 1064E 080 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 075 SE QD 055 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 195 SE QD 210 SW QD 125 NW QD
T096 270S 1072E 040 R034 050 NE QD 100 SE QD 095 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 300S 1101E 025
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 022
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 14.5S 112.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 112.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 15.0S 109.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.0S 107.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.7S 106.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 19.7S 106.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 23.7S 106.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 27.0S 107.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 30.0S 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 111.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 479 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z.
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1518031318 85S1287E 20
1518031400 88S1289E 20
1518031406 90S1292E 20
1518031412 90S1296E 20
1518031418 90S1300E 20
1518031500 90S1304E 25
1518031506 93S1313E 30
1518031512 96S1319E 30
1518031518 101S1323E 35
1518031600 105S1324E 40
1518031606 108S1322E 40
1518031612 112S1319E 40
1518031618 117S1316E 40
1518031700 124S1311E 45
1518031706 130S1300E 45
1518031712 135S1293E 45
1518031718 139S1286E 50
1518031718 139S1286E 50
1518031800 142S1278E 55
1518031800 142S1278E 55
1518031806 146S1266E 50
1518031806 146S1266E 50
1518031812 150S1253E 45
1518031818 150S1243E 50
1518031818 150S1243E 50
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031918 153S1199E 100
1518031918 153S1199E 100
1518031918 153S1199E 100
1518032000 151S1184E 105
1518032000 151S1184E 105
1518032000 151S1184E 105
1518032006 148S1167E 105
1518032006 148S1167E 105
1518032006 148S1167E 105
1518032012 145S1152E 110
1518032012 145S1152E 110
1518032012 145S1152E 110
1518032018 146S1138E 115
1518032018 146S1138E 115
1518032018 146S1138E 115
1518032100 145S1123E 120
1518032100 145S1123E 120
1518032100 145S1123E 120

2018-03-21 02:46

WTXS32 PGTW 210300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 14.5S 112.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 112.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 15.0S 109.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-03-21 02:46

WTXS32 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 14.5S 112.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 112.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 15.0S 109.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.0S 107.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.7S 106.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 19.7S 106.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 23.7S 106.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 27.0S 107.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 30.0S 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 111.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 479 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI-SPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A
PINHOLE EYE (8 NM IN DIAMETER) THAT CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN
PERIODS OF CLOUD-FILLING AND CLEARING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR
IMAGERY AND IS SUPPORTED BY A 202317Z 91GHZ SSMI/S MICROWAVE IMAGE.
THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
ENCIRCLING THE ENTIRE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120
KNOTS IS BETWEEN MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T6.0 (115 KNOTS) AND A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 125 KNOTS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNELS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
AREA OF LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING
THROUGH WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
TC 15S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. TC MARCUS IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, PEAKING AT 130 KNOTS
BY TAU 24. THE SYSTEM TRACK IS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AS IT
BEGINS TO ROUND THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AROUND
TAU 48 THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE RIDGE AXIS AND RECURVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. INTENSITY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 24 AS TC 15S
ENCOUNTERS A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASED VWS AND
DECREASED OHC. AFTER TAU 48, TC 15S WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS
IT TRACKS INTO STEADILY DECREASING SSTS AND UNFAVORABLE VWS. THESE
UNFAVORABLE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO TC 15S DISSIPATING OVER WATER BY
TAU 120. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH
THE FORECAST TRACK LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z.//

2018-03-20 21:01

WTXS52 PGTW 202100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180320194510
2018032018 15S MARCUS 021 02 265 14 SATL 020
T000 146S 1138E 115 R064 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 140 SE QD
155 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 148S 1111E 125 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 180 SE QD
160 SW QD 125 NW QD
T024 156S 1088E 130 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
085 NE QD 105 SE QD 090 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 180 SE QD
160 SW QD 135 NW QD
T036 169S 1072E 125 R064 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 105 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 170 SE QD
160 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 189S 1063E 115 R064 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 105 SE QD 090 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 170 SE QD
160 SW QD 135 NW QD
T072 232S 1061E 085 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 170 SE QD
180 SW QD 125 NW QD
T096 262S 1068E 050 R050 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
080 NE QD 125 SE QD 120 SW QD 075 NW QD
T120 280S 1083E 025
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 021
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 14.6S 113.8E

2018-03-20 21:01

WTXS52 PGTW 202100
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180320194510
2018032018 15S MARCUS 021 02 265 14 SATL 020
T000 146S 1138E 115 R064 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 140 SE QD 155 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 148S 1111E 125 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 180 SE QD 160 SW QD 125 NW QD
T024 156S 1088E 130 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 105 SE QD 090 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 180 SE QD 160 SW QD 135 NW QD
T036 169S 1072E 125 R064 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 105 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 189S 1063E 115 R064 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 105 SE QD 090 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 135 NW QD
T072 232S 1061E 085 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 170 SE QD 180 SW QD 125 NW QD
T096 262S 1068E 050 R050 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 125 SE QD 120 SW QD 075 NW QD
T120 280S 1083E 025
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 021
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 14.6S 113.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 113.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 14.8S 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 15.6S 108.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 16.9S 107.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 18.9S 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 23.2S 106.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 26.2S 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 28.0S 108.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 113.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 439 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 47 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z.
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1518031318 85S1287E 20
1518031400 88S1289E 20
1518031406 90S1292E 20
1518031412 90S1296E 20
1518031418 90S1300E 20
1518031500 90S1304E 25
1518031506 93S1313E 30
1518031512 96S1319E 30
1518031518 101S1323E 35
1518031600 105S1324E 40
1518031606 108S1322E 40
1518031612 112S1319E 40
1518031618 117S1316E 40
1518031700 124S1311E 45
1518031706 130S1300E 45
1518031712 135S1293E 45
1518031718 139S1286E 50
1518031718 139S1286E 50
1518031800 142S1278E 55
1518031800 142S1278E 55
1518031806 146S1266E 50
1518031806 146S1266E 50
1518031812 150S1253E 45
1518031818 150S1243E 50
1518031818 150S1243E 50
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031918 153S1199E 100
1518031918 153S1199E 100
1518031918 153S1199E 100
1518032000 151S1184E 105
1518032000 151S1184E 105
1518032000 151S1184E 105
1518032006 148S1167E 105
1518032006 148S1167E 105
1518032006 148S1167E 105
1518032012 145S1152E 110
1518032012 145S1152E 110
1518032012 145S1152E 110
1518032018 146S1138E 115
1518032018 146S1138E 115
1518032018 146S1138E 115

2018-03-20 21:01

WTXS32 PGTW 202100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 14.6S 113.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 113.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 14.8S 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-03-20 21:01

WTXS32 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 14.6S 113.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 113.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 14.8S 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 15.6S 108.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 16.9S 107.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 18.9S 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 23.2S 106.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 26.2S 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 28.0S 108.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 113.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 439 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS A MATURE SYSTEM WITH A PINHOLE EYE (9 NM IN
DIAMETER) THAT HAS FLUCTUATED BETWEEN PERIODS OF CLOUD-FILLING AND
CLEARING OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THIS EYE FEATURE OBSERVED IN EIR IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES IN AGREEMENT AT T6.0 (115 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES LOW (LESS THAN 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM
SSTS (29 TO 30 CELSIUS), AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC), WHICH
ALL FAVOR INTENSIFICATION. TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER AUSTRALIA. FROM
TAU 24 TO TAU 48, INTENSITY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS TC 15S DEFLECTS
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VWS AND DECREASED OHC.
AFTER TAU 48, TC 15S WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS
AND TRACKS POLEWARD INTO STEADILY DECREASING SSTS AND UNFAVORABLE
VWS. THESE UNFAVORABLE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION OVER WATER
BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING STRONG EVIDENCE OF
AN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION SCENARIO AND REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 47 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) FOR FINAL WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW).//

2018-03-20 14:16

WTXS52 PGTW 201500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180320131508
2018032012 15S MARCUS 020 02 280 15 SATL 010
T000 145S 1152E 110 R064 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 090 SE QD 095 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 190 SE QD
155 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 147S 1125E 120 R064 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 100 SE QD 095 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 190 SE QD
160 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 152S 1099E 130 R064 045 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 180 SE QD
160 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 162S 1080E 125 R064 055 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
095 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 180 SE QD
160 SW QD 125 NW QD
T048 179S 1067E 120 R064 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 105 SE QD 100 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 175 SE QD
160 SW QD 125 NW QD
T072 223S 1064E 090 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
075 NE QD 085 SE QD 085 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 165 SE QD
160 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 257S 1076E 050 R050 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
045 NE QD 170 SE QD 145 SW QD 085 NW QD
T120 275S 1085E 025
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 14.5S 115.2E

2018-03-20 14:16

WTXS52 PGTW 201500
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180320131508
2018032012 15S MARCUS 020 02 280 15 SATL 010
T000 145S 1152E 110 R064 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 095 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 190 SE QD 155 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 147S 1125E 120 R064 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 100 SE QD 095 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 190 SE QD 160 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 152S 1099E 130 R064 045 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 180 SE QD 160 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 162S 1080E 125 R064 055 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 180 SE QD 160 SW QD 125 NW QD
T048 179S 1067E 120 R064 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 105 SE QD 100 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 175 SE QD 160 SW QD 125 NW QD
T072 223S 1064E 090 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 085 SE QD 085 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 165 SE QD 160 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 257S 1076E 050 R050 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 045 NE QD 170 SE QD 145 SW QD 085 NW QD
T120 275S 1085E 025
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 14.5S 115.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 115.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 14.7S 112.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 15.2S 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.2S 108.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.9S 106.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.3S 106.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 25.7S 107.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 27.5S 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 114.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 399 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
201200Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1518031318 85S1287E 20
1518031400 88S1289E 20
1518031406 90S1292E 20
1518031412 90S1296E 20
1518031418 90S1300E 20
1518031500 90S1304E 25
1518031506 93S1313E 30
1518031512 96S1319E 30
1518031518 101S1323E 35
1518031600 105S1324E 40
1518031606 108S1322E 40
1518031612 112S1319E 40
1518031618 117S1316E 40
1518031700 124S1311E 45
1518031706 130S1300E 45
1518031712 135S1293E 45
1518031718 139S1286E 50
1518031718 139S1286E 50
1518031800 142S1278E 55
1518031800 142S1278E 55
1518031806 146S1266E 50
1518031806 146S1266E 50
1518031812 150S1253E 45
1518031818 150S1243E 50
1518031818 150S1243E 50
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031918 153S1199E 100
1518031918 153S1199E 100
1518031918 153S1199E 100
1518032000 151S1184E 105
1518032000 151S1184E 105
1518032000 151S1184E 105
1518032006 148S1167E 105
1518032006 148S1167E 105
1518032006 148S1167E 105
1518032012 145S1152E 110
1518032012 145S1152E 110
1518032012 145S1152E 110

2018-03-20 14:16

WTXS32 PGTW 201500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 14.5S 115.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 115.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 14.7S 112.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-03-20 14:16

WTXS32 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 14.5S 115.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 115.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 14.7S 112.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 15.2S 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.2S 108.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.9S 106.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.3S 106.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 25.7S 107.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 27.5S 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 114.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 399 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CYCLONE HAS
RE-DEVELOPED AN 11-NM SHARPLY OUTLINED EYE AS HIGHLY-SYMMETRICAL
BANDS WRAPPED EVEN TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CIRCLE.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE
201032Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 5.5 TO 6.0 AND REFLECTS THE INTENSIFICATION. TC 15S IS
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO A PEAK OF
130 KNOTS THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 36 AS IT RECURVES SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. TC MARCUS WILL DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER WATER BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.//

2018-03-20 09:16

WTXS52 PGTW 200900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180320074026
2018032006 15S MARCUS 019 02 280 17 SATL 020
T000 148S 1167E 105 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD
130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 147S 1138E 120 R064 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 170 SE QD
140 SW QD 095 NW QD
T024 151S 1112E 135 R064 045 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 170 SE QD
145 SW QD 115 NW QD
T036 158S 1089E 135 R064 050 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
085 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 165 SE QD
145 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 172S 1073E 120 R064 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
095 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 165 SE QD
150 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 216S 1063E 090 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 155 SE QD
155 SW QD 115 NW QD
T096 255S 1075E 055 R050 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
085 NE QD 175 SE QD 140 SW QD 095 NW QD
T120 277S 1093E 035 R034 055 NE QD 145 SE QD 145 SW QD 055 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 14.8S 116.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 17 KTS

2018-03-20 09:16

WTXS52 PGTW 200900
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180320074026
2018032006 15S MARCUS 019 02 280 17 SATL 020
T000 148S 1167E 105 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 147S 1138E 120 R064 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 095 NW QD
T024 151S 1112E 135 R064 045 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 170 SE QD 145 SW QD 115 NW QD
T036 158S 1089E 135 R064 050 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 165 SE QD 145 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 172S 1073E 120 R064 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 165 SE QD 150 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 216S 1063E 090 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 155 SE QD 155 SW QD 115 NW QD
T096 255S 1075E 055 R050 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 175 SE QD 140 SW QD 095 NW QD
T120 277S 1093E 035 R034 055 NE QD 145 SE QD 145 SW QD 055 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 14.8S 116.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 116.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 14.7S 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 15.1S 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 15.8S 108.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 17.2S 107.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 21.6S 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 25.5S 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 27.7S 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 116.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 347 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1518031318 85S1287E 20
1518031400 88S1289E 20
1518031406 90S1292E 20
1518031412 90S1296E 20
1518031418 90S1300E 20
1518031500 90S1304E 25
1518031506 93S1313E 30
1518031512 96S1319E 30
1518031518 101S1323E 35
1518031600 105S1324E 40
1518031606 108S1322E 40
1518031612 112S1319E 40
1518031618 117S1316E 40
1518031700 124S1311E 45
1518031706 130S1300E 45
1518031712 135S1293E 45
1518031718 139S1286E 50
1518031718 139S1286E 50
1518031800 142S1278E 55
1518031800 142S1278E 55
1518031806 146S1266E 50
1518031806 146S1266E 50
1518031812 150S1253E 45
1518031818 150S1243E 50
1518031818 150S1243E 50
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031918 153S1199E 100
1518031918 153S1199E 100
1518031918 153S1199E 100
1518032000 151S1184E 105
1518032000 151S1184E 105
1518032000 151S1184E 105
1518032006 148S1167E 105
1518032006 148S1167E 105
1518032006 148S1167E 105

2018-03-20 09:16

WTXS32 PGTW 200900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 14.8S 116.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 116.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 14.7S 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-03-20 09:01

WTXS32 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 14.8S 116.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 116.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 14.7S 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 15.1S 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 15.8S 108.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 17.2S 107.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 21.6S 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 25.5S 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 27.7S 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 116.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 347 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY
INTO A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE WITH A RE-DEVELOPING EYE
EVIDENT OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. A 200655Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE
INDICATES AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) IS OCCURRING WITH AN
OUTER EYEWALL AND MOAT SURROUNDING A VERY SMALL INNER EYEWALL. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS STEADY AT 105 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 5.5 (102 KNOTS), ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT
WEAKENING TREND HAD OCCURRED PRIOR TO THIS TIME AS IS TYPICAL WITH
ERC. TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 135 KNOTS THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN AFTER
TAU 48 AS IT RECURVES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR
TAU 96 BUT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE COMPLETING ETT AS A
STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S
(ELIAKIM) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

2018-03-20 03:01

WTXS52 PGTW 200300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180320015703
2018032000 15S MARCUS 018 02 280 15 SATL 025
T000 151S 1184E 105 R064 035 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 165 SE QD
145 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 149S 1157E 120 R064 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD
145 SW QD 105 NW QD
T024 150S 1129E 130 R064 045 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
075 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 170 SE QD
150 SW QD 115 NW QD
T036 156S 1103E 140 R064 050 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 170 SE QD
150 SW QD 125 NW QD
T048 165S 1084E 135 R064 055 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD R050
090 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 175 SE QD
150 SW QD 135 NW QD
T072 206S 1068E 120 R064 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
095 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD
150 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 255S 1080E 085 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 185 SE QD
170 SW QD 115 NW QD
T120 286S 1110E 045 R034 150 NE QD 190 SE QD 115 SW QD 085 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 018
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---

2018-03-20 03:01

WTXS52 PGTW 200300
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180320015703
2018032000 15S MARCUS 018 02 280 15 SATL 025
T000 151S 1184E 105 R064 035 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 165 SE QD 145 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 149S 1157E 120 R064 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD 145 SW QD 105 NW QD
T024 150S 1129E 130 R064 045 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 115 NW QD
T036 156S 1103E 140 R064 050 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 125 NW QD
T048 165S 1084E 135 R064 055 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 175 SE QD 150 SW QD 135 NW QD
T072 206S 1068E 120 R064 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 255S 1080E 085 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 185 SE QD 170 SW QD 115 NW QD
T120 286S 1110E 045 R034 150 NE QD 190 SE QD 115 SW QD 085 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 018
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 15.1S 118.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 118.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 14.9S 115.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 15.0S 112.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 15.6S 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.5S 108.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 20.6S 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 25.5S 108.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 28.6S 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 117.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 276 NM
NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1518031318 85S1287E 20
1518031400 88S1289E 20
1518031406 90S1292E 20
1518031412 90S1296E 20
1518031418 90S1300E 20
1518031500 90S1304E 25
1518031506 93S1313E 30
1518031512 96S1319E 30
1518031518 101S1323E 35
1518031600 105S1324E 40
1518031606 108S1322E 40
1518031612 112S1319E 40
1518031618 117S1316E 40
1518031700 124S1311E 45
1518031706 130S1300E 45
1518031712 135S1293E 45
1518031718 139S1286E 50
1518031718 139S1286E 50
1518031800 142S1278E 55
1518031800 142S1278E 55
1518031806 146S1266E 50
1518031806 146S1266E 50
1518031812 150S1253E 45
1518031818 150S1243E 50
1518031818 150S1243E 50
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031918 153S1199E 100
1518031918 153S1199E 100
1518031918 153S1199E 100
1518032000 151S1184E 105
1518032000 151S1184E 105
1518032000 151S1184E 105

2018-03-20 02:16

WTXS32 PGTW 200300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 15.3S 119.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 119.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 15.1S 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-03-20 02:16

WTXS32 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 15.3S 119.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 119.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 15.1S 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 15.0S 114.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 15.3S 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 16.3S 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 19.7S 107.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 24.7S 107.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 28.9S 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 119.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A RAGGED 10 NM
EYE THAT INSTILLS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 100 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) HEDGED LOWER
DUE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLOUD FILLING IN THE EYE OBSERVED AROUND
191800Z. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNELS, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM SSTS (30
TO 31C). ALL THESE FACTORS SUPPORT CONTINUED RAPID INTENSIFICATION
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TC 15S WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER AUSTRALIA.
FROM TAU 24 TO 48, THE STORM INTENSIFIES MORE SLOWLY AND THEN BEGINS
TO WEAKEN DUE TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NORTHEASTLY VWS AS IT BEGINS
TO DEFLECT SOUTHWESTWARD. AS TC 15S CONTINUES POLEWARD ALONG THE
RIDGE AXIS, CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE WITH
INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS. RAPID WEAKENING WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR
AFTER TAU 72, AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BEGIN AT ABOUT TAU
120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY GOOD AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z,
200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S
(ELIAKIM) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

2018-03-19 21:31

WTXS52 PGTW 192100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180319200145
2018031918 15S MARCUS 017 02 285 13 SATL 020
T000 153S 1199E 100 R064 020 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 130 SE QD
130 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 151S 1172E 115 R064 035 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 085 SE QD 085 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 155 SE QD
140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 150S 1144E 130 R064 035 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD
150 SW QD 115 NW QD
T036 153S 1116E 140 R064 045 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
075 NE QD 100 SE QD 095 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD
155 SW QD 125 NW QD
T048 163S 1094E 135 R064 050 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
085 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 175 SE QD
155 SW QD 135 NW QD
T072 197S 1071E 120 R064 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R050
095 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 165 SE QD
155 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 247S 1078E 085 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 185 SE QD
175 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 289S 1110E 045 R034 080 NE QD 215 SE QD 155 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 017
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 15.3S 119.9E

2018-03-19 21:31

WTXS52 PGTW 192100
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180319200145
2018031918 15S MARCUS 017 02 285 13 SATL 020
T000 153S 1199E 100 R064 020 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 151S 1172E 115 R064 035 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 085 SE QD 085 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 155 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 150S 1144E 130 R064 035 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 115 NW QD
T036 153S 1116E 140 R064 045 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 100 SE QD 095 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD 155 SW QD 125 NW QD
T048 163S 1094E 135 R064 050 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 175 SE QD 155 SW QD 135 NW QD
T072 197S 1071E 120 R064 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 165 SE QD 155 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 247S 1078E 085 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 185 SE QD 175 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 289S 1110E 045 R034 080 NE QD 215 SE QD 155 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 017
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 15.3S 119.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 119.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 15.1S 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 15.0S 114.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 15.3S 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 16.3S 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 19.7S 107.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 24.7S 107.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 28.9S 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 119.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1518031318 85S1287E 20
1518031400 88S1289E 20
1518031406 90S1292E 20
1518031412 90S1296E 20
1518031418 90S1300E 20
1518031500 90S1304E 25
1518031506 93S1313E 30
1518031512 96S1319E 30
1518031518 101S1323E 35
1518031600 105S1324E 40
1518031606 108S1322E 40
1518031612 112S1319E 40
1518031618 117S1316E 40
1518031700 124S1311E 45
1518031706 130S1300E 45
1518031712 135S1293E 45
1518031718 139S1286E 50
1518031718 139S1286E 50
1518031800 142S1278E 55
1518031800 142S1278E 55
1518031806 146S1266E 50
1518031806 146S1266E 50
1518031812 150S1253E 45
1518031818 150S1243E 50
1518031818 150S1243E 50
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031918 153S1199E 100
1518031918 153S1199E 100
1518031918 153S1199E 100

2018-03-19 21:31

WTXS32 PGTW 192100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 15.3S 119.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 119.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 15.1S 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-03-19 21:16

WTXS32 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 15.3S 119.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 119.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 15.1S 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 15.0S 114.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 15.3S 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 16.3S 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 19.7S 107.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 24.7S 107.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 28.9S 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 119.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A RAGGED 10 NM
EYE THAT INSTILLS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 100 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) HEDGED LOWER
DUE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLOUD FILLING IN THE EYE OBSERVED AROUND
191800Z. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNELS, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM SSTS (30
TO 31C). ALL THESE FACTORS SUPPORT CONTINUED RAPID INTENSIFICATION
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TC 15S WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER AUSTRALIA.
FROM TAU 24 TO 48, THE STORM INTENSIFIES MORE SLOWLY AND THEN BEGINS
TO WEAKEN DUE TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NORTHEASTLY VWS AS IT BEGINS
TO DEFLECT SOUTHWESTWARD. AS TC 15S CONTINUES POLEWARD ALONG THE
RIDGE AXIS, CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE WITH
INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS. RAPID WEAKENING WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR
AFTER TAU 72, AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BEGIN AT ABOUT TAU
120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY GOOD AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z,
200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S
(ELIAKIM) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

2018-03-19 14:46

WTXS52 PGTW 191500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180319132759
2018031912 15S MARCUS 016 02 265 14 SATL 010
T000 156S 1212E 095 R064 020 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 120 SE QD
120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 155S 1186E 115 R064 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 145 SE QD
130 SW QD 105 NW QD
T024 153S 1158E 125 R064 035 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 155 SE QD
145 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 154S 1130E 130 R064 035 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 100 SE QD 095 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 165 SE QD
150 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 159S 1104E 130 R064 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
075 NE QD 100 SE QD 095 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD
160 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 186S 1071E 120 R064 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
085 NE QD 100 SE QD 095 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 165 SE QD
155 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 236S 1069E 085 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
075 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD
170 SW QD 125 NW QD
T120 279S 1091E 045 R034 090 NE QD 210 SE QD 145 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 15.6S 121.2E

2018-03-19 14:46

WTXS52 PGTW 191500
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180319132759
2018031912 15S MARCUS 016 02 265 14 SATL 010
T000 156S 1212E 095 R064 020 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 155S 1186E 115 R064 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 145 SE QD 130 SW QD 105 NW QD
T024 153S 1158E 125 R064 035 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 155 SE QD 145 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 154S 1130E 130 R064 035 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 100 SE QD 095 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 165 SE QD 150 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 159S 1104E 130 R064 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 100 SE QD 095 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 186S 1071E 120 R064 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 100 SE QD 095 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 165 SE QD 155 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 236S 1069E 085 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD 170 SW QD 125 NW QD
T120 279S 1091E 045 R034 090 NE QD 210 SE QD 145 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 15.6S 121.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 121.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 15.5S 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 15.3S 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 15.4S 113.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 15.9S 110.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 18.6S 107.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 23.6S 106.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 27.9S 109.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 120.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 149 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1518031318 85S1287E 20
1518031400 88S1289E 20
1518031406 90S1292E 20
1518031412 90S1296E 20
1518031418 90S1300E 20
1518031500 90S1304E 25
1518031506 93S1313E 30
1518031512 96S1319E 30
1518031518 101S1323E 35
1518031600 105S1324E 40
1518031606 108S1322E 40
1518031612 112S1319E 40
1518031618 117S1316E 40
1518031700 124S1311E 45
1518031706 130S1300E 45
1518031712 135S1293E 45
1518031718 139S1286E 50
1518031718 139S1286E 50
1518031800 142S1278E 55
1518031800 142S1278E 55
1518031806 146S1266E 50
1518031806 146S1266E 50
1518031812 150S1253E 45
1518031818 150S1243E 50
1518031818 150S1243E 50
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031906 155S1226E 80
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031912 156S1212E 95
1518031912 156S1212E 95

2018-03-19 14:46

WTXS32 PGTW 191500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 15.6S 121.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 121.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 15.5S 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-03-19 14:31

WTXS32 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 15.6S 121.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 121.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 15.5S 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 15.3S 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 15.4S 113.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 15.9S 110.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 18.6S 107.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 23.6S 106.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 27.9S 109.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 120.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 149 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING AND A RAGGED, 11 NM EYE, THAT INSTILLS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 95 KNOTS
REFLECTS THE MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK FIXES OF T4.5 TO T5.5 (77 TO 102
KNOTS) AND A 191038Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 95 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS,
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM SSTS (30 TO 31C). ALL THESE
FACTORS SUPPORT RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FROM
TAU 24 TO 36, THE STORM INTENSIFIES MORE SLOWLY TO ITS PEAK
INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS. TC 15S WILL TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER AUSTRALIA
UNTIL JUST BEFORE TAU 48 WHEN THE TRACK WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT
POLEWARD AS THE CYCLONE ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS. AS IT BEGINS THAT
TURN, CONDITIONS WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE WITH INCREASING VWS AND
COOLING SSTS AND TC 15S WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN, SLOWLY AT FIRST, THEN
RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
TRACK. BEYOND TAU 72, HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE LOWERS
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
191200Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND
201500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

2018-03-19 09:01

WTXS52 PGTW 190900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180319075321
2018031906 15S MARCUS 015 02 250 08 SATL RADR SYNP 015
T000 155S 1226E 075 R064 015 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
035 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 100 SE QD
100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 156S 1203E 100 R064 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 145 SE QD
120 SW QD 085 NW QD
T024 155S 1176E 115 R064 035 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 085 SE QD 075 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 155 SE QD
130 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 155S 1147E 125 R064 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 165 SE QD
140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 158S 1119E 130 R064 050 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 165 SE QD
145 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 180S 1079E 110 R064 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R050
100 NE QD 105 SE QD 095 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 170 SE QD
160 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 227S 1070E 090 R064 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
095 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 170 SE QD
175 SW QD 135 NW QD
T120 271S 1089E 050 R050 020 NE QD 060 SE QD 075 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
105 NE QD 210 SE QD 175 SW QD 140 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

2018-03-19 09:01

WTXS52 PGTW 190900
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180319075321
2018031906 15S MARCUS 015 02 250 08 SATL RADR SYNP 015
T000 155S 1226E 075 R064 015 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 156S 1203E 100 R064 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 145 SE QD 120 SW QD 085 NW QD
T024 155S 1176E 115 R064 035 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 085 SE QD 075 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 155 SE QD 130 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 155S 1147E 125 R064 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 165 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 158S 1119E 130 R064 050 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 165 SE QD 145 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 180S 1079E 110 R064 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 105 SE QD 095 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 227S 1070E 090 R064 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 170 SE QD 175 SW QD 135 NW QD
T120 271S 1089E 050 R050 020 NE QD 060 SE QD 075 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 210 SE QD 175 SW QD 140 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 15.5S 122.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 122.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 15.6S 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 15.5S 117.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 15.5S 114.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 15.8S 111.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 18.0S 107.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 22.7S 107.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 27.1S 108.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 122.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 146 NM NORTH
OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1518031318 85S1287E 20
1518031400 88S1289E 20
1518031406 90S1292E 20
1518031412 90S1296E 20
1518031418 90S1300E 20
1518031500 90S1304E 25
1518031506 93S1313E 30
1518031512 96S1319E 30
1518031518 101S1323E 35
1518031600 105S1324E 40
1518031606 108S1322E 40
1518031612 112S1319E 40
1518031618 117S1316E 40
1518031700 124S1311E 45
1518031706 130S1300E 45
1518031712 135S1293E 45
1518031718 139S1286E 50
1518031718 139S1286E 50
1518031800 142S1278E 55
1518031800 142S1278E 55
1518031806 146S1266E 50
1518031806 146S1266E 50
1518031812 150S1253E 45
1518031818 150S1243E 50
1518031818 150S1243E 50
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031900 152S1234E 65
1518031906 155S1226E 75
1518031906 155S1226E 75
1518031906 155S1226E 75

2018-03-19 09:01

WTXS32 PGTW 190900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 15.5S 122.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 122.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 15.6S 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-03-19 09:01

WTXS32 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 15.5S 122.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 122.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 15.6S 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 15.5S 117.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 15.5S 114.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 15.8S 111.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 18.0S 107.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 22.7S 107.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 27.1S 108.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 122.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 146 NM
NORTH OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING AND A RAGGED, 8 NM EYE, THAT PROVIDES HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 75 KNOTS
REFLECTS THE MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK FIXES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS). NEARBY
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM ADELE ISLAND REPORTED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 51 KNOTS WITH A MINIMUM MSLP OF 994 MB AS TC 15S PASSED
JUST TO THE NORTH AROUND 190330Z. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS
EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS, LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM SSTS (30 TO 31C). ALL THESE FACTORS
SUPPORT RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FROM TAU 24 TO
48, THE STORM INTENSIFIES MORE SLOWLY REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF
130 KNOTS AROUND TAU 48. TC 15S WILL TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER AUSTRALIA
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48 WHEN THE TRACK WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT
POLEWARD AS THE CYCLONE ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS. AS IT BEGINS THAT
TURN, CONDITIONS WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE WITH INCREASING VWS AND
COOLING SSTS AND TC 15S WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN, SLOWLY AT FIRST THEN
RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S
(ELIAKIM) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

2018-03-19 02:31

WTXS52 PGTW 190300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180319013739
2018031900 15S MARCUS 014 02 270 09 SATL 020
T000 150S 1234E 065 R064 010 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 055 NE QD 075 SE QD
080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 151S 1212E 095 R064 015 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
035 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 115 SE QD
100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 149S 1185E 115 R064 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD
115 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 149S 1157E 125 R064 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 145 SE QD
130 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 151S 1129E 130 R064 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 150 SE QD
135 SW QD 115 NW QD
T072 168S 1083E 120 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
085 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 170 SE QD
145 SW QD 135 NW QD
T096 207S 1060E 105 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
085 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 155 SE QD
150 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 253S 1068E 080 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 215 SE QD
165 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

2018-03-19 02:31

WTXS52 PGTW 190300
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180319013739
2018031900 15S MARCUS 014 02 270 09 SATL 020
T000 150S 1234E 065 R064 010 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 055 NE QD 075 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 151S 1212E 095 R064 015 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 115 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 149S 1185E 115 R064 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 115 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 149S 1157E 125 R064 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 145 SE QD 130 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 151S 1129E 130 R064 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 150 SE QD 135 SW QD 115 NW QD
T072 168S 1083E 120 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 170 SE QD 145 SW QD 135 NW QD
T096 207S 1060E 105 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 155 SE QD 150 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 253S 1068E 080 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 215 SE QD 165 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 15.0S 123.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 123.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 15.1S 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 14.9S 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 14.9S 115.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 15.1S 112.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.8S 108.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 20.7S 106.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 25.3S 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 122.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 187 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z.
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1518031318 85S1287E 20
1518031400 88S1289E 20
1518031406 90S1292E 20
1518031412 90S1296E 20
1518031418 90S1300E 20
1518031500 90S1304E 25
1518031506 93S1313E 30
1518031512 96S1319E 30
1518031518 101S1323E 35
1518031600 105S1324E 40
1518031606 108S1322E 40
1518031612 112S1319E 40
1518031618 117S1316E 40
1518031700 124S1311E 45
1518031706 130S1300E 45
1518031712 135S1293E 45
1518031718 139S1286E 50
1518031718 139S1286E 50
1518031800 142S1278E 55
1518031800 142S1278E 55
1518031806 146S1266E 50
1518031806 146S1266E 50
1518031812 150S1253E 45
1518031818 150S1243E 50
1518031818 150S1243E 50
1518031900 150S1234E 65
1518031900 150S1234E 65
1518031900 150S1234E 65

2018-03-19 02:31

WTXS32 PGTW 190300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 15.0S 123.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 123.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 15.1S 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-03-19 02:31

WTXS32 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 15.0S 123.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 123.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 15.1S 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 14.9S 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 14.9S 115.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 15.1S 112.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.8S 108.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 20.7S 106.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 25.3S 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 122.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 187 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING IN THE EARLY STAGE OF EYE FORMATION. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION WHICH IS BASED ON A NEARLY CLOSED
OFF MICROWAVE EYE IN AN 182306Z 89 GHZ MHS IMAGE AND A SIMILAR CYAN
RING FEATURE OBSERVED AN 182208 37GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE SSMIS IMAGE,
INDICATIVE OF NEAR-TERM RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ASSESSMENT OF 65 KNOTS REFLECTS THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM
AVERAGING MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.5 TO T4.5
(55 TO 77 KNOTS) AND A 182203Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 71 KNOTS. NEARBY
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM ADELE ISLAND IS REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 45 KNOTS AND A 6 MB DROP IN MSLP TO 998 MB
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD POLEWARD
AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS WITH A DEFINED EASTERN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AGAINST THE PREDOMINANT EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SSTS ARE ALSO
EXTREMELY WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) WITH SIGNIFICANT OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT, AND WILL SUPPORT RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS SOMETIME BEFORE TAU 48.
TC 15S IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER AUSTRALIA. TC 15S WILL TRACK
WESTWARD UNTIL AROUND TAU 72 WHEN THE TRACK WILL SHIFT POLEWARD
AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. THE POLEWARD TRACK WILL TAKE TC 15S INTO
COOLER WATERS WHICH WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM IN LATER TAUS.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
190000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND
200300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

2018-03-18 21:16

WTXS52 PGTW 182100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180318204544
2018031818 15S MARCUS 013 02 270 10 SATL 035
T000 150S 1243E 050 R050 025 NE QD 015 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
060 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 157S 1217E 075 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
025 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 105 SE QD
090 SW QD 065 NW QD
T024 154S 1195E 100 R064 020 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 125 SE QD
110 SW QD 085 NW QD
T036 152S 1169E 115 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 140 SE QD
125 SW QD 105 NW QD
T048 153S 1137E 125 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD
140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 163S 1086E 130 R064 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R050
085 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 185 SE QD
155 SW QD 135 NW QD
T096 199S 1055E 115 R064 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD R050
100 NE QD 105 SE QD 095 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 170 SE QD
155 SW QD 140 NW QD
T120 245S 1053E 090 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
085 NE QD 095 SE QD 095 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 165 SE QD
195 SW QD 135 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:

2018-03-18 21:16

WTXS52 PGTW 182100
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180318204544
2018031818 15S MARCUS 013 02 270 10 SATL 035
T000 150S 1243E 050 R050 025 NE QD 015 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 157S 1217E 075 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 105 SE QD 090 SW QD 065 NW QD
T024 154S 1195E 100 R064 020 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 125 SE QD 110 SW QD 085 NW QD
T036 152S 1169E 115 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 140 SE QD 125 SW QD 105 NW QD
T048 153S 1137E 125 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 163S 1086E 130 R064 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 185 SE QD 155 SW QD 135 NW QD
T096 199S 1055E 115 R064 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 105 SE QD 095 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 170 SE QD 155 SW QD 140 NW QD
T120 245S 1053E 090 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 095 SE QD 095 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 165 SE QD 195 SW QD 135 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 15.0S 124.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 124.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 15.7S 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 15.4S 119.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 15.2S 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 15.3S 113.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 16.3S 108.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 19.9S 105.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 24.5S 105.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 123.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 212 NM
NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1518031318 85S1287E 20
1518031400 88S1289E 20
1518031406 90S1292E 20
1518031412 90S1296E 20
1518031418 90S1300E 20
1518031500 90S1304E 25
1518031506 93S1313E 30
1518031512 96S1319E 30
1518031518 101S1323E 35
1518031600 105S1324E 40
1518031606 108S1322E 40
1518031612 112S1319E 40
1518031618 117S1316E 40
1518031700 124S1311E 45
1518031706 130S1300E 45
1518031712 135S1293E 45
1518031718 139S1286E 50
1518031718 139S1286E 50
1518031800 142S1278E 55
1518031800 142S1278E 55
1518031806 146S1266E 50
1518031806 146S1266E 50
1518031812 150S1253E 45
1518031818 150S1243E 50
1518031818 150S1243E 50

2018-03-18 21:16

WTXS32 PGTW 182100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 15.0S 124.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 124.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 15.7S 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-03-18 21:16

WTXS32 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 15.0S 124.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 124.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 15.7S 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 15.4S 119.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 15.2S 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 15.3S 113.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 16.3S 108.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 19.9S 105.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 24.5S 105.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 123.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 212 NM
NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION WITH DENSE CENTRAL OVERCAST AND
COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE INITIAL POSITION WHICH IS BASED ON A NOTCH FEATURE OBSERVED
IN BOTH 181836Z 85 AND 37 GHZ SSMI IMAGES WITH NOTABLE DIFFERENCES
IN SATELLITE FIXES; HOWEVER, ALL AVAILABLE DATA INDICATES TC 15S HAS
REEMERGED OVER WATER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS WITH A DEFINED EASTERN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AGAINST THE PREDOMINANT EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SSTS ARE EXTREMELY WARM
(30 TO 31 CELSIUS) AND WILL SUPPORT RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS SOMETIME
BEFORE TAU 72. TC 15S IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER AUSTRALIA. TC 15S
WILL TRACK WESTWARD UNTIL AROUND TAU 72 WHEN THE TRACK WILL SHIFT
POLEWARD AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. THE POLEWARD TRACK WILL TAKE TC 15S
INTO COOLER WATERS WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM IN LATER TAUS.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
181800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND
192100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

2018-03-18 15:16

WTXS52 PGTW 181500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180318134331
2018031812 15S MARCUS 012 02 250 13 SATL RADR SYNP 045
T000 150S 1253E 045 R034 065 NE QD 075 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 155S 1232E 050 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 015 NW QD R034
080 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD
T024 156S 1210E 060 R050 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD R034
085 NE QD 115 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 154S 1185E 070 R064 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
035 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 130 SE QD
115 SW QD 085 NW QD
T048 151S 1158E 090 R064 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 145 SE QD
135 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 155S 1103E 120 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 175 SE QD
150 SW QD 125 NW QD
T096 184S 1066E 125 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 175 SE QD
155 SW QD 140 NW QD
T120 227S 1058E 115 R064 055 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
085 NE QD 105 SE QD 095 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 160 SE QD
170 SW QD 140 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 15.0S 125.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF

2018-03-18 15:16

WTXS52 PGTW 181500
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180318134331
2018031812 15S MARCUS 012 02 250 13 SATL RADR SYNP 045
T000 150S 1253E 045 R034 065 NE QD 075 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 155S 1232E 050 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD
T024 156S 1210E 060 R050 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 115 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 154S 1185E 070 R064 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 115 SW QD 085 NW QD
T048 151S 1158E 090 R064 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 145 SE QD 135 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 155S 1103E 120 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 175 SE QD 150 SW QD 125 NW QD
T096 184S 1066E 125 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 175 SE QD 155 SW QD 140 NW QD
T120 227S 1058E 115 R064 055 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 105 SE QD 095 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 160 SE QD 170 SW QD 140 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 15.0S 125.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 125.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 15.5S 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 15.6S 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 15.4S 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 15.1S 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 15.5S 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 18.4S 106.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.7S 105.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 15.1S 124.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 249 NM
NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1518031318 85S1287E 20
1518031400 88S1289E 20
1518031406 90S1292E 20
1518031412 90S1296E 20
1518031418 90S1300E 20
1518031500 90S1304E 25
1518031506 93S1313E 30
1518031512 96S1319E 30
1518031518 101S1323E 35
1518031600 105S1324E 40
1518031606 108S1322E 40
1518031612 112S1319E 40
1518031618 117S1316E 40
1518031700 124S1311E 45
1518031706 130S1300E 45
1518031712 135S1293E 45
1518031718 139S1286E 50
1518031718 139S1286E 50
1518031800 142S1278E 55
1518031800 142S1278E 55
1518031806 146S1266E 50
1518031806 146S1266E 50
1518031812 150S1253E 45

2018-03-18 15:16

WTXS32 PGTW 181500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 15.0S 125.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 125.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 15.5S 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 15.6S 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

2018-03-18 15:01

WTXS32 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 15.0S 125.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 125.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 15.5S 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 15.6S 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 15.4S 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 15.1S 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 15.5S 110.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 18.4S 106.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.7S 105.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 15.1S 124.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 249 NM
NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 15S IS STRADDLING THE NORTHERN
COAST OF AUSTRALIA AND HAS CONSOLIDATED WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. THEREFORE, THERE IS
EXCELLENT CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON THE SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND WHILE
TRACKING OVER LAND THROUGH 18/12Z, HOWEVER, THE PGTW 18/1430Z DVORAK
ESTIMATE IS NOW T3.5 (55 KNOTS) REFLECTING THE SHORT-TERM
IMPROVEMENT IN STRUCTURE AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO RE-EMERGE OVER
WATER. OVERALL, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE VERY
FAVORABLE, THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS EXPECTED AT TAU
96. TC 15S IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL
RECURVE SOUTHWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AND TRACKS TOWARD A BREAK IN
THE STR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

2018-03-18 09:01

WTXS52 PGTW 180900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180318072935
2018031806 15S MARCUS 011 02 250 11 SATL RADR SYNP 030
T000 146S 1267E 050 R050 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R034
065 NE QD 075 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 150S 1247E 050 R050 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R034
065 NE QD 075 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 154S 1225E 055 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R034
080 NE QD 085 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD
T036 155S 1202E 065 R064 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 115 SE QD
100 SW QD 075 NW QD
T048 155S 1175E 080 R064 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 125 SE QD
120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 156S 1120E 105 R064 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 160 SE QD
140 SW QD 125 NW QD
T096 175S 1078E 120 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 170 SE QD
145 SW QD 140 NW QD
T120 209S 1055E 115 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD R050
095 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 160 SE QD
160 SW QD 135 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 14.6S 126.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM

2018-03-18 09:01

WTXS52 PGTW 180900
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180318072935
2018031806 15S MARCUS 011 02 250 11 SATL RADR SYNP 030
T000 146S 1267E 050 R050 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 075 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 150S 1247E 050 R050 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 075 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 154S 1225E 055 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 085 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD
T036 155S 1202E 065 R064 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 115 SE QD 100 SW QD 075 NW QD
T048 155S 1175E 080 R064 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 125 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 156S 1120E 105 R064 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 125 NW QD
T096 175S 1078E 120 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 170 SE QD 145 SW QD 140 NW QD
T120 209S 1055E 115 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 160 SE QD 160 SW QD 135 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 14.6S 126.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 126.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 15.0S 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 15.4S 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 15.5S 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 15.5S 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 15.6S 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 17.5S 107.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 20.9S 105.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 126.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1518031318 85S1287E 20
1518031400 88S1289E 20
1518031406 90S1292E 20
1518031412 90S1296E 20
1518031418 90S1300E 20
1518031500 90S1304E 25
1518031506 93S1313E 30
1518031512 96S1319E 30
1518031518 101S1323E 35
1518031600 105S1324E 40
1518031606 108S1322E 40
1518031612 112S1319E 40
1518031618 117S1316E 40
1518031700 124S1311E 45
1518031706 130S1300E 45
1518031712 135S1293E 45
1518031718 139S1286E 50
1518031718 139S1286E 50
1518031800 142S1278E 55
1518031800 142S1278E 55
1518031806 146S1267E 50
1518031806 146S1267E 50

2018-03-18 09:01

WTXS32 PGTW 180900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 14.6S 126.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 126.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 15.0S 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-03-18 08:46

WTXS32 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 14.6S 126.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 126.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 15.0S 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 15.4S 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 15.5S 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 15.5S 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 15.6S 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 17.5S 107.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 20.9S 105.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 126.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE PRIMARILY BECAUSE ANIMATED RADAR
IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 50 KNOTS REFLECTS A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND AS THE STORM TRACKS
OVER LAND. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY. ASIDE FROM BEING OVER LAND, THE
OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH STRONG
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24. BY TAU 12, THE CYCLONE WILL BE BACK
OVER WATER AND BEGIN TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. FROM TAU 24 TO TAU 72,
THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WESTWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER
AUSTRALIA. DURING THIS PERIOD, THE LAND INFLUENCE LESSENS AND TC 15S
WILL INTENSIFY STEADILY TO 105 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 72, THE TRACK WILL
BEGIN A GRADUAL TURN TO THE SOUTH AS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH CAUSES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS
WILL BE REACHED BY TAU 96, AFTER WHICH VWS WILL INCREASE AND THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
THROUGH TAU 72, LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. AFTER TAU 72, MODEL SPREAD INCREASES RESULTING IN LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z
AND 190900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

2018-03-18 03:01

WTXS52 PGTW 180300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180318013659
2018031800 15S MARCUS 010 02 250 08 SATL RADR 030
T000 142S 1278E 055 R050 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R034
055 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 147S 1259E 050 R050 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
045 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 152S 1238E 055 R050 015 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
055 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD
T036 155S 1216E 065 R064 005 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD
090 SW QD 065 NW QD
T048 155S 1191E 075 R064 015 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD
110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 152S 1133E 100 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 085 SE QD 075 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 150 SE QD
130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 166S 1085E 120 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 165 SE QD
150 SW QD 125 NW QD
T120 199S 1059E 115 R064 065 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 055 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 170 SE QD
155 SW QD 135 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 14.2S 127.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM

2018-03-18 03:01

WTXS52 PGTW 180300
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180318013659
2018031800 15S MARCUS 010 02 250 08 SATL RADR 030
T000 142S 1278E 055 R050 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 147S 1259E 050 R050 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 152S 1238E 055 R050 015 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD
T036 155S 1216E 065 R064 005 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 065 NW QD
T048 155S 1191E 075 R064 015 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 152S 1133E 100 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 085 SE QD 075 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 166S 1085E 120 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 165 SE QD 150 SW QD 125 NW QD
T120 199S 1059E 115 R064 065 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 170 SE QD 155 SW QD 135 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 14.2S 127.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 127.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 14.7S 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 15.2S 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 15.5S 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 15.5S 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 15.2S 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.6S 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 19.9S 105.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 127.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 208 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1518031318 85S1287E 20
1518031400 88S1289E 20
1518031406 90S1292E 20
1518031412 90S1296E 20
1518031418 90S1300E 20
1518031500 90S1304E 25
1518031506 93S1313E 30
1518031512 96S1319E 30
1518031518 101S1323E 35
1518031600 105S1324E 40
1518031606 108S1322E 40
1518031612 112S1319E 40
1518031618 117S1316E 40
1518031700 124S1311E 45
1518031706 130S1300E 45
1518031712 135S1293E 45
1518031718 139S1286E 50
1518031718 139S1286E 50
1518031800 142S1278E 55
1518031800 142S1278E 55

2018-03-18 02:46

WTXS32 PGTW 180300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 14.2S 127.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 127.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 14.7S 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-03-18 02:46

WTXS32 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 14.2S 127.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 127.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 14.7S 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 15.2S 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 15.5S 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 15.5S 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 15.2S 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.6S 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 19.9S 105.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 127.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 208 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI-SPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPANDING MASS OF PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION CENTRALLY LOCATED OVER AND OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL LOOP AND ANIMATED
RADAR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON RECENT
AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM
BOTH APRF AND PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM HAS
STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WEAKER POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND HAS BEEN
TRACKING THROUGH WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE JOSEPH BONAPARTE GULF. TC 15S IS TRACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
WILL SHORTLY MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA WILL
BUILD, CAUSING THE TRACK TO SHIFT MORE WESTWARD BETWEEN TAU 24 AND
TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF THE RIDGE AND TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
LIMITED THROUGH TAU 24 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER LAND. AFTER
TRACKING BACK OVER WATER AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY
INTENSIFY, REACHING A PEAK OF 120 KNOTS BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK LENDING
OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S
(ELIAKIM) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

2018-03-17 21:16

WTXS32 PGTW 172100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 13.9S 128.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 128.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 14.4S 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 15.0S 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

2018-03-17 21:16

WTXS32 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 13.9S 128.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 128.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 14.4S 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 15.0S 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 15.5S 122.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 15.6S 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 15.3S 115.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 16.2S 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 18.6S 106.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 128.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 158 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION CENTRALLY
LOCATED OVER AND OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
ANIMATED INFRARED LOOP AND ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BETWEEN RECENT AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 TO T3.5 (45-55 KNOTS) FROM
APRF AND PGTW RESPECTIVELY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM HAS GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
(15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM
(30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS IT BRIEFLY TRACKS
THROUGH THE JOSEPH BONAPARTE GULF. TC 15S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL AUSTRALIAN CONTINENT. THE TRACK IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT, BECOMING MORE WESTWARD AS THE RIDGE BUILDS. AFTER
TAU 72, 15S WILL TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTH ROUNDS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF
THE RIDGE. IN THE NEAR TERM, THE SYSTEM WILL SKIRT THE NORTHWESTERN
AUSTRALIAN COASTLINE AND REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE VWS,
LIMITING INTENSIFICATION UNTIL AFTER TAU 36 WHEN THE CYCLONE IS OVER
WATER AND THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE. TC MARCUS IS
FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS BY TAU 96.
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU
72 WHEN THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS BEGIN TO SPREAD. THE MODELS GUIDANCE
LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72 WITH
CONFIDENCE DECREASING AS THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS INCREASES.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

2018-03-17 15:01

WTXS52 PGTW 171500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180317133009
2018031712 15S MARCUS 008 02 235 08 SATL RADR SYNP 050
T000 135S 1293E 050 R050 000 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
055 NE QD 060 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 141S 1277E 060 R050 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034
060 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 075 NW QD
T024 148S 1258E 055 R050 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R034
055 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 153S 1238E 055 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
070 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 155S 1217E 070 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
035 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 105 SE QD
100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 151S 1164E 100 R064 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
035 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 150 SE QD
135 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 155S 1105E 125 R064 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 175 SE QD
150 SW QD 115 NW QD
T120 176S 1065E 120 R064 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 115 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 180 SE QD
165 SW QD 135 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 13.5S 129.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF

2018-03-17 15:01

WTXS52 PGTW 171500
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180317133009
2018031712 15S MARCUS 008 02 235 08 SATL RADR SYNP 050
T000 135S 1293E 050 R050 000 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 141S 1277E 060 R050 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 075 NW QD
T024 148S 1258E 055 R050 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 055 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 153S 1238E 055 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 155S 1217E 070 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 105 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 151S 1164E 100 R064 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 150 SE QD 135 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 155S 1105E 125 R064 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 085 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 175 SE QD 150 SW QD 115 NW QD
T120 176S 1065E 120 R064 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 115 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 180 SE QD 165 SW QD 135 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 13.5S 129.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S 129.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 14.1S 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 14.8S 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 15.3S 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 15.5S 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 15.1S 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 15.5S 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.6S 106.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 128.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 111 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1518031318 85S1287E 20
1518031400 88S1289E 20
1518031406 90S1292E 20
1518031412 90S1296E 20
1518031418 90S1300E 20
1518031500 90S1304E 25
1518031506 93S1313E 30
1518031512 96S1319E 30
1518031518 101S1323E 35
1518031600 105S1324E 40
1518031606 108S1322E 40
1518031612 112S1319E 40
1518031618 117S1316E 40
1518031700 124S1311E 45
1518031706 130S1300E 45
1518031712 135S1293E 50
1518031712 135S1293E 50

2018-03-17 14:46

WTXS32 PGTW 171500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 13.5S 129.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S 129.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 14.1S 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-03-17 14:46

WTXS32 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 13.5S 129.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S 129.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 14.1S 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 14.8S 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 15.3S 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 15.5S 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 15.1S 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 15.5S 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.6S 106.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 128.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 111 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION ALIGNS WELL WITH PGTW
AND KNES FIX POSITIONS, AS WELL AS RADAR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY UPWARD FROM DVORAK FIXES
OF T3.0 BECAUSE THE EIR CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE (20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SSTS NEAR THE COAST
ARE EXTREMELY WARM (30 TO 31C) AND WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 30
CELSIUS UNTIL TAU 96 WHEN IT FALLS SLIGHTLY BELOW 30C. TC 15S IS
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE AUSTRALIAN CONTINENT. THE TRACK WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY
TO BECOME MORE WESTWARD AS THE RIDGE BUILDS, BEFORE TURNING TOWARDS
THE SOUTH AFTER TAU 96 AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE. THE INITIAL TRACK WILL SKIRT THE AUSTRALIAN COASTLINE AND
REMAIN IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VWS, LIMITING INTENSIFICATION UNTIL
AFTER TAU 36 WHEN THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE AND THE
CYCLONE MOVES COMPLETELY OVER WATER. BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 96, TC
15S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FROM 55 KNOTS TO ABOUT 125 KNOTS.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE FORECAST
TRACK UNTIL TAU 72 WHEN THE SPREAD IN THE FORECAST TRACKS INCREASES.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72
WITH CONFIDENCE LESSENING AS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK INCREASES.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
14S (ELIAKIM) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

2018-03-17 09:01

WTXS52 PGTW 170900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180317073945
2018031706 15S MARCUS 007 02 240 12 SATL RADR SYNP 050
T000 130S 1300E 045 R034 015 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 015 NW QD
T012 136S 1286E 060 R050 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034
060 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 143S 1269E 055 R050 025 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
075 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 147S 1249E 055 R050 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
055 NE QD 055 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD
T048 150S 1227E 060 R050 020 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
060 NE QD 080 SE QD 085 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 152S 1176E 095 R064 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 135 SE QD
125 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 151S 1120E 115 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 080 SE QD 085 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 155 SE QD
145 SW QD 110 NW QD
T120 164S 1064E 125 R064 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 115 SE QD 090 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 190 SE QD
160 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 13.0S 130.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

2018-03-17 09:01

WTXS52 PGTW 170900
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180317073945
2018031706 15S MARCUS 007 02 240 12 SATL RADR SYNP 050
T000 130S 1300E 045 R034 015 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 015 NW QD
T012 136S 1286E 060 R050 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 143S 1269E 055 R050 025 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 147S 1249E 055 R050 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD
T048 150S 1227E 060 R050 020 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 085 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 152S 1176E 095 R064 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 135 SE QD 125 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 151S 1120E 115 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 080 SE QD 085 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 155 SE QD 145 SW QD 110 NW QD
T120 164S 1064E 125 R064 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 115 SE QD 090 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 190 SE QD 160 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 13.0S 130.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S 130.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 13.6S 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 14.3S 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 14.7S 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 15.0S 122.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 15.2S 117.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 15.1S 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 16.4S 106.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 13.2S 129.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 61 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1518031318 85S1287E 20
1518031400 88S1289E 20
1518031406 90S1292E 20
1518031412 90S1296E 20
1518031418 90S1300E 20
1518031500 90S1304E 25
1518031506 93S1313E 30
1518031512 96S1319E 30
1518031518 101S1323E 35
1518031600 105S1324E 40
1518031606 108S1322E 40
1518031612 112S1319E 40
1518031618 117S1316E 40
1518031700 124S1311E 45
1518031706 130S1300E 45

2018-03-17 09:01

WTXS32 PGTW 170900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 13.0S 130.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S 130.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 13.6S 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 14.3S 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

2018-03-17 09:01

WTXS32 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 13.0S 130.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S 130.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 13.6S 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 14.3S 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 14.7S 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 15.0S 122.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 15.2S 117.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 15.1S 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 16.4S 106.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 13.2S 129.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 61 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A TIGHTLY WOUND SYSTEM WITH PERSISTENT CENTRAL
CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE PRIMARILY BASED ON PGTW AND KNES FIX
POSITIONS AND DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE (20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SSTS NEAR THE COAST ARE
EXTREMELY WARM (30 TO 31C) AND WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 30 CELSIUS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. TC 15S IS TRACKING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER THE AUSTRALIAN CONTINENT. THE TRACK WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO
BECOME MORE WESTWARD AS THE RIDGE BUILDS, BEFORE TURNING TOWARDS THE
SOUTH AFTER TAU 96 AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
THE INITIAL TRACK WILL SKIRT THE AUSTRALIAN COASTLINE AND REMAIN IN
AN AREA OF MODERATE VWS, LIMITING INTENSIFICATION UNTIL AFTER TAU 48
WHEN THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE AND THE CYCLONE MOVES
COMPLETELY OVER WATER. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD,
THEREFORE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
14S (ELIAKIM) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

2018-03-17 03:16

WTXS52 PGTW 170300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180317023214
2018031700 15S MARCUS 006 02 215 09 SATL RADR 025
T000 124S 1311E 045 R034 015 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 015 NW QD
T012 133S 1299E 050 R050 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 025 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
070 NE QD 035 SE QD 060 SW QD 085 NW QD
T024 139S 1284E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R034
055 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 145S 1265E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R034
045 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 149S 1244E 055 R050 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R034
050 NE QD 065 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 151S 1196E 090 R064 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 065 SE QD 070 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD
120 SW QD 115 NW QD
T096 151S 1135E 115 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 145 SE QD
140 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 161S 1079E 125 R064 065 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R050
085 NE QD 100 SE QD 095 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 175 SE QD
175 SW QD 160 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 12.4S 131.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

2018-03-17 03:16

WTXS52 PGTW 170300
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180317023214
2018031700 15S MARCUS 006 02 215 09 SATL RADR 025
T000 124S 1311E 045 R034 015 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 015 NW QD
T012 133S 1299E 050 R050 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 025 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 035 SE QD 060 SW QD 085 NW QD
T024 139S 1284E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 055 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 145S 1265E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 045 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 149S 1244E 055 R050 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 065 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 151S 1196E 090 R064 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 065 SE QD 070 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 115 NW QD
T096 151S 1135E 115 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 145 SE QD 140 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 161S 1079E 125 R064 065 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 100 SE QD 095 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 175 SE QD 175 SW QD 160 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 12.4S 131.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 131.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 13.3S 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 13.9S 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 14.5S 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 14.9S 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 15.1S 119.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 15.1S 113.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.1S 107.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 12.6S 130.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 13 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1518031318 85S1287E 20
1518031400 88S1289E 20
1518031406 90S1292E 20
1518031412 90S1296E 20
1518031418 90S1300E 20
1518031500 90S1304E 25
1518031506 93S1313E 30
1518031512 96S1319E 30
1518031518 101S1323E 35
1518031600 105S1324E 40
1518031606 108S1322E 40
1518031612 112S1319E 40
1518031618 117S1316E 40
1518031700 124S1311E 45

2018-03-17 03:16

WTXS32 PGTW 170300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 12.4S 131.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 131.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 13.3S 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 13.9S 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

2018-03-17 03:01

WTXS32 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 12.4S 131.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 131.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 13.3S 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 13.9S 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 14.5S 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 14.9S 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 15.1S 119.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 15.1S 113.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.1S 107.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 12.6S 130.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 13 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A TIGHTLY WOUND SYSTEM WITH PERSISTENT CENTRAL
CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION WHICH IS BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES
AND ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM DARWIN SHOWING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CIRCULAR CENTER NOW OVERLAND. A
162046Z 89GHZ GMI IMAGE SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE FORMING IN THE UPPER
LEVELS WITH A STRONG BAND OF CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY.
THE EYE FEATURE IS NOT OBSERVABLE IN THE CORRESPONDING 37GHZ BAND OR
IN RADAR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE
LOWER END OF PREVIOUS DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 TO T3.5 (45
TO 55 KNOTS) AND SUPPORTED BY LOCAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT CREATING A LOW TO MODERATE
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH NOTABLE DIFFLUENCE. SSTS ARE EXTREMELY WARM
NEAR THE COAST LINE AROUND 31 CELSIUS AND WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 30
CELSIUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. TC 15S IS TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE AUSTRALIAN CONTINENT WHICH WILL BECOME EAST-WEST
ORIENTED AND SHIFT THE SYSTEM TO A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK.
INITIALLY TC 15S WILL TRACK ALONG THE COASTLINE FOR THE FIRST 48
HOURS. THIS WILL MITIGATE THE INTENSIFICATION TREND DUE TO
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AND THE PRESENCE OF LOW TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR.
BEYOND TAU 48 TC 15S WILL TRACK OVER OPEN WATER, AND WITH IMPROVING
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL INTENSIFY QUICKLY REACHING A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSE GROUPING OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES EXIST OVER THE FIRST 48 HOURS WHILE TRACKING SO
CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE. DESPITE THESE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE
SHORT TERM, THERE IS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

2018-03-16 21:31

WTXS52 PGTW 162100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180316204235
2018031618 15S MARCUS 005 02 210 06 SATL RADR 025
T000 117S 1316E 040 R034 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 125S 1306E 045 R034 055 NE QD 035 SE QD 045 SW QD 055 NW QD
T024 133S 1294E 050 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R034
055 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 065 NW QD
T036 138S 1278E 055 R050 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
070 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 075 NW QD
T048 144S 1255E 050 R050 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034
075 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 075 NW QD
T072 148S 1208E 090 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
025 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 120 SE QD
105 SW QD 075 NW QD
T096 147S 1150E 110 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 150 SE QD
125 SW QD 115 NW QD
T120 154S 1089E 120 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 170 SE QD
145 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 11.7S 131.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

2018-03-16 21:31

WTXS52 PGTW 162100
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180316204235
2018031618 15S MARCUS 005 02 210 06 SATL RADR 025
T000 117S 1316E 040 R034 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 125S 1306E 045 R034 055 NE QD 035 SE QD 045 SW QD 055 NW QD
T024 133S 1294E 050 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 065 NW QD
T036 138S 1278E 055 R050 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 075 NW QD
T048 144S 1255E 050 R050 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 075 NW QD
T072 148S 1208E 090 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 120 SE QD 105 SW QD 075 NW QD
T096 147S 1150E 110 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 150 SE QD 125 SW QD 115 NW QD
T120 154S 1089E 120 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 170 SE QD 145 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 11.7S 131.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S 131.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 12.5S 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 13.3S 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 13.8S 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 14.4S 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 14.8S 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 14.7S 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 15.4S 108.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 11.9S 131.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 63 NM
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1518031318 85S1287E 20
1518031400 88S1289E 20
1518031406 90S1292E 20
1518031412 90S1296E 20
1518031418 90S1300E 20
1518031500 90S1304E 25
1518031506 93S1313E 30
1518031512 96S1319E 30
1518031518 101S1323E 35
1518031600 105S1324E 40
1518031606 108S1322E 40
1518031612 112S1319E 40
1518031618 117S1316E 40

2018-03-16 21:31

WTXS32 PGTW 162100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 11.7S 131.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S 131.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 12.5S 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 13.3S 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-03-16 21:31

WTXS32 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 11.7S 131.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S 131.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 12.5S 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 13.3S 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 13.8S 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 14.4S 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 14.8S 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 14.7S 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 15.4S 108.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 11.9S 131.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 63 NM
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION ORGANIZING
AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION WHICH IS BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES AND ANIMATED
RADAR IMAGERY FROM DARWIN SHOWING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CIRCULAR CENTER JUST OFFSHORE AND SKIRTING
THE COASTLINE. A 161839Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY WITH LIMITED CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION SITUATED OVER LAND. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS
BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.0 (35
TO 45 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT
CREATING A LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH NOTABLE
DIFFLUENCE. SSTS ARE EXTREMELY WARM NEAR THE COAST LINE AROUND 31
CELSIUS AND WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 30 CELSIUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST. TC 15S IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AUSTRALIAN
CONTINENT WHICH WILL BECOME EAST-WEST ORIENTED AND SHIFT THE SYSTEM
TO A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK. INITIALLY TC 15S WILL TRACK ALONG THE
COASTLINE FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS. THIS WILL MITIGATE THE
INTENSIFICATION TREND DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AND THE PRESENCE OF
LOW TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR. BEYOND TAU 48 TC 15S WILL TRACK OVER
OPEN WATER, AND WITH IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
INTENSIFY QUICKLY REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS BY TAU
120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSE
GROUPING OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER SLIGHT DIFFERENCES EXIST
OVER THE FIRST 48 HOURS WHILE TRACKING SO CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE.
DESPITE THESE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE SHORT TERM, THERE IS OVERALL
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z,
171500Z AND 172100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

2018-03-16 14:16

WTXS52 PGTW 161500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180316125018
2018031612 15S MARCUS 004 02 240 06 SATL RADR 020
T000 114S 1314E 040 R034 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 122S 1304E 045 R034 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD
T024 131S 1293E 050 R050 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 035 NW QD R034
050 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 055 NW QD
T036 138S 1277E 055 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R034
050 NE QD 055 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 143S 1257E 045 R034 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 065 NW QD
T072 152S 1213E 065 R064 010 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 105 SE QD
095 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 151S 1154E 085 R064 020 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
035 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 140 SE QD
125 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 152S 1090E 100 R064 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD
155 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 11.4S 131.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

2018-03-16 14:16

WTXS52 PGTW 161500
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180316125018
2018031612 15S MARCUS 004 02 240 06 SATL RADR 020
T000 114S 1314E 040 R034 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 122S 1304E 045 R034 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD
T024 131S 1293E 050 R050 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 055 NW QD
T036 138S 1277E 055 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 143S 1257E 045 R034 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 065 NW QD
T072 152S 1213E 065 R064 010 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 105 SE QD 095 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 151S 1154E 085 R064 020 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 140 SE QD 125 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 152S 1090E 100 R064 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD 155 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 11.4S 131.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S 131.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 12.2S 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 13.1S 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 13.8S 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 14.3S 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 15.2S 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 15.1S 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 15.2S 109.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 11.6S 131.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 72 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z,
170900Z AND 171500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) WARNINGS
1518031318 85S1287E 20
1518031400 88S1289E 20
1518031406 90S1292E 20
1518031412 90S1296E 20
1518031418 90S1300E 20
1518031500 90S1304E 25
1518031506 93S1313E 30
1518031512 96S1319E 30
1518031518 101S1323E 35
1518031600 106S1322E 40
1518031606 111S1319E 40
1518031612 114S1314E 40

2018-03-16 14:16

WTXS32 PGTW 161500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 11.4S 131.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S 131.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 12.2S 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 13.1S 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-03-16 14:16

WTXS32 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 11.4S 131.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S 131.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 12.2S 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 13.1S 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 13.8S 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 14.3S 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 15.2S 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 15.1S 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 15.2S 109.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 11.6S 131.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 72 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
MOSTLY MAINTAINED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE EVEN AS IT TRACKED ACROSS THE
TIWI ISLANDS NORTH OF DARWIN. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A
DEFINED CIRCULATION IN THE COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM DARWIN AND
EXTRAPOLATED FROM A LOW REFLECTIVITY LLC FEATURE IN THE 160938Z 36
GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS AVERAGED FROM AGENCY AND SATCON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5
TO T3.2. TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THAT IS ANCHORED WEST-EAST
OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA AND DRAG ALONG THE NORTHERN AUSTRALIAN
COASTLINE. BY TAU 72, JUST NORTH OF BROOME, IT WILL TRACK MORE
WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN (SIO). DUE TO LAND INTERACTION,
MARCUS WILL INTENSIFY ONLY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER,
AFTER IT EXITS INTO THE SIO, A RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE WILL
COMMENCE, AIDED BY ANTICIPATED STRONG OUTFLOW, LOW VWS, AND WARM SSTS
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK. BY TAU 120, TC 15S IS PREDICTED TO
REACH 100 KNOTS. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, LAND INTERACTION DURING THE NEAR TERM
MAY AFFECT ITS STORM MOTION, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z,
170900Z AND 171500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

2018-03-16 09:01

WTXS52 PGTW 160900
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180316072933
2018031606 15S MARCUS 003 02 210 06 SATL RADR 020
T000 111S 1319E 040 R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 120S 1313E 040 R034 090 NE QD 025 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 129S 1303E 040 R034 095 NE QD 020 SE QD 035 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 137S 1287E 050 R050 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 143S 1268E 045 R034 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 151S 1220E 065 R064 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 095 SE QD 095 SW QD 065 NW QD
T096 153S 1164E 085 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 135 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T120 152S 1104E 100 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 115 SE QD 095 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 175 SE QD 170 SW QD 115 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 11.1S 131.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.1S 131.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 12.0S 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 12.9S 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 13.7S 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 14.3S 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 15.1S 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 15.3S 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 15.2S 110.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 131.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 102 NM
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z.
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1518031318 85S1287E 20
1518031400 88S1289E 20
1518031406 90S1292E 20
1518031412 90S1296E 20
1518031418 90S1300E 20
1518031500 90S1304E 25
1518031506 93S1313E 30
1518031512 96S1319E 30
1518031518 101S1323E 35
1518031600 106S1322E 40
1518031606 111S1319E 40

2018-03-16 09:01

WTXS52 PGTW 160900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180316072933
2018031606 15S MARCUS 003 02 210 06 SATL RADR 020
T000 111S 1319E 040 R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 120S 1313E 040 R034 090 NE QD 025 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 129S 1303E 040 R034 095 NE QD 020 SE QD 035 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 137S 1287E 050 R050 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
060 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 143S 1268E 045 R034 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 151S 1220E 065 R064 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
035 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 095 SE QD
095 SW QD 065 NW QD
T096 153S 1164E 085 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 135 SE QD
130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T120 152S 1104E 100 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 115 SE QD 095 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 175 SE QD
170 SW QD 115 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 11.1S 131.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

2018-03-16 09:01

WTXS32 PGTW 160900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 11.1S 131.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.1S 131.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 12.0S 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 12.9S 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-03-16 09:01

WTXS32 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (MARCUS) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 11.1S 131.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.1S 131.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 12.0S 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 12.9S 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 13.7S 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 14.3S 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 15.1S 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 15.3S 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 15.2S 110.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 131.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (MARCUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 102 NM
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
MOSTLY MAINTAINED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE EVEN AS IT TRACKED BETWEEN THE
ISLANDS NORTH OF DARWIN. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A WELL-
DEFINED CIRCULATION IN THE COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM DARWIN WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND ADRM RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.0 (35 TO
45 KNOTS). TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A SSW-WARD TRACK ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THAT IS ANCHORED WEST-EAST OVER
CENTRAL AUSTRALIA AND DRAG ALONG THE NORTHERN AUSTRALIAN COASTLINE.
BY TAU 72, JUST NORTH OF BROOME, IT WILL TRACK MORE WESTWARD INTO THE
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN (SIO). DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, MARCUS WILL
STRUGGLE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS BUT AFTER IT EXITS INTO THE SIO, A
RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE WILL COMMENCE, AIDED BY ANTICIPATED
STRONG OUTFLOW, LOW VWS, AND WARM SSTS IN THE AREA. BY TAU 120, TC
15S IS FORECAST TO REACH 100 KNOTS. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, LAND INTERACTION DURING THE NEAR TERM
MAY AFFECT ITS STORM MOTION, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
160600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND
170900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

2018-03-16 03:16

WTXS52 PGTW 160300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180316014002
2018031600 15S FIFTEEN 002 02 150 06 SATL 035
T000 106S 1326E 040 R034 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 030 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 114S 1324E 045 R034 100 NE QD 055 SE QD 035 SW QD 075 NW QD
T024 122S 1316E 050 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
090 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 075 NW QD
T036 131S 1303E 045 R034 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 138S 1285E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034
065 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 075 NW QD
T072 149S 1239E 055 R050 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
060 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD
T096 152S 1185E 070 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 135 SE QD
125 SW QD 105 NW QD
T120 151S 1125E 085 R064 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 075 SE QD 095 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD
135 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 10.6S 132.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

2018-03-16 03:16

WTXS52 PGTW 160300
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180316014002
2018031600 15S FIFTEEN 002 02 150 06 SATL 035
T000 106S 1326E 040 R034 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 030 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 114S 1324E 045 R034 100 NE QD 055 SE QD 035 SW QD 075 NW QD
T024 122S 1316E 050 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 075 NW QD
T036 131S 1303E 045 R034 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 138S 1285E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 075 NW QD
T072 149S 1239E 055 R050 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD
T096 152S 1185E 070 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 135 SE QD 125 SW QD 105 NW QD
T120 151S 1125E 085 R064 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 095 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD 135 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 10.6S 132.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.6S 132.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 11.4S 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 12.2S 131.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 13.1S 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 13.8S 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 14.9S 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 15.2S 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 15.1S 112.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 10.8S 132.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 152 NM
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z.
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1518031318 85S1287E 20
1518031400 88S1289E 20
1518031406 90S1292E 20
1518031412 90S1296E 20
1518031418 90S1300E 20
1518031500 90S1304E 25
1518031506 93S1313E 30
1518031512 96S1319E 30
1518031518 101S1323E 40
1518031600 106S1326E 40

2018-03-16 03:16

WTXS32 PGTW 160300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 10.6S 132.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.6S 132.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 11.4S 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 12.2S 131.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-03-16 03:16

WTXS32 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 10.6S 132.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.6S 132.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 11.4S 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 12.2S 131.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 13.1S 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 13.8S 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 14.9S 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 15.2S 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 15.1S 112.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 10.8S 132.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 152 NM
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION CENTRALLY LOCATED OVER AND
OCCLUDING A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
MULTISPECTRAL LOOP AND THE ANIMATED RADAR LOOP FROM THE AUSTRALIAN
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BETWEEN
MULTI-AGENCY AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
T2.5 TO T3.0 (35-45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES RESPECTIVELY. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND
NO ORGANIZED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS THAT
THEY SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM (29-30 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 15S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST AS IT IS RECURVING TO THE SOUTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
AN EXTENSION OF THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT APPROACHES
NORTHERN AUSTRALIA, REACHING A PEAK OF 50 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU
24, EXTENSIVE LAND INTERACTION WILL CAUSE A BRIEF WEAKENING TREND AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS BETWEEN MAINLAND AUSTRALIA AND THE TIWI ISLANDS.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
COAST OF AUSTRALIA THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, THE TRACK DIRECTION
SHIFTS MORE WESTERLY ALONG AN EXTENSION OF A STR ANCHORED OVER
CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN INDIAN
OCEAN IT WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS,
REACHING 85 KNOTS BY TAU 120. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK DIRECTION. THE INDIVIDUAL
CONSENSUS MEMBERS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY ON HOW FAR INLAND THE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK WHICH IS CAUSING LARGE VARIATIONS IN BOTH THE ALONG TRACK
SPEED AND INTENSITY. DUE TO THE VARIATIONS IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE
IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S
(ELIAKIM) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

2018-03-15 21:46

WTXS52 PGTW 152100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180315195200
2018031518 15S FIFTEEN 001 02 155 04 SATL 030
T000 100S 1321E 035 R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 107S 1323E 045 R034 065 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 115S 1317E 050 R050 020 NE QD 035 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R034
055 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 075 NW QD
T036 124S 1306E 045 R034 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 065 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 131S 1291E 050 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
060 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD
T072 144S 1245E 055 R050 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R034
045 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 075 NW QD
T096 150S 1192E 065 R064 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 125 SE QD
100 SW QD 075 NW QD
T120 149S 1133E 080 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 140 SE QD
105 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 10.0S 132.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

2018-03-15 21:46

WTXS52 PGTW 152100
WARNING ATCG MIL 15S SIO 180315195200
2018031518 15S FIFTEEN 001 02 155 04 SATL 030
T000 100S 1321E 035 R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 107S 1323E 045 R034 065 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 115S 1317E 050 R050 020 NE QD 035 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 075 NW QD
T036 124S 1306E 045 R034 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 065 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 131S 1291E 050 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD
T072 144S 1245E 055 R050 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 045 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 075 NW QD
T096 150S 1192E 065 R064 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 125 SE QD 100 SW QD 075 NW QD
T120 149S 1133E 080 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 140 SE QD 105 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 10.0S 132.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.0S 132.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 10.7S 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 11.5S 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 12.4S 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 13.1S 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 14.4S 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 15.0S 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 14.9S 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 10.2S 132.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 166 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z.
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1518031318 85S1287E 20
1518031400 88S1289E 20
1518031406 90S1292E 20
1518031412 90S1296E 20
1518031418 90S1300E 20
1518031500 90S1304E 25
1518031506 93S1313E 30
1518031512 96S1319E 30
1518031518 100S1321E 35

2018-03-15 21:46

WTXS32 PGTW 152100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150451ZMAR18//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 10.0S 132.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.0S 132.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 10.7S 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 11.5S 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

2018-03-15 21:46

WTXS32 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150451ZMAR18//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 10.0S 132.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.0S 132.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 10.7S 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 11.5S 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 12.4S 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 13.1S 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 14.4S 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 15.0S 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 14.9S 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 10.2S 132.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 166 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
INFRARED LOOP AND A 151852Z 37GHZ SSMI/S MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING
DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENISTY IF 35
KNOT IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30
KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE
SYSTEM OF 32 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A POINT SOURCE
ALOFT OVER THE SYSTEM WITH WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS DEPICTS THAT THEY SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF STRONG (20-25
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM
(29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 15S IS CURRENTLY
RECURVING TO THE SOUTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION OF
THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 11S IS
EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY TO 50 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24,
LAND INTERACTION WILL BRIEFLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS BETWEEN
MAINLAND AUSTRALIA AND THE TIWI ISLANDS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA THROUGH TAU 72 AT WHICH
TIME THE TRACK DIRECTION BECOMES MORE WESTWARD AS TC 15S MOVES OUT
INTO THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN. THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY
AFTER TAU 36 AS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST, REACHING 80 KNOTS BY
TAU 120. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEAL GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TRACK DIRECTION HOWEVER, INDIVIDUAL CONSENSUS MEMBERS VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY ON HOW FAR INLAND THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK. THESE
VARIATIONS IN TRACK LOCATIONS CAUSE EXTENSIVE VARIATIONS IN BOTH
ALONG TRACK SPEED AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 10
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z. THIS
CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 150500). REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//