Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for SAGAR-18
in Somalia, Ethiopia, Yemen

Global Telecommunication Service

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2018-05-19 16:01

WTIO51 PGTW 191500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 01A NIO 180519130645
2018051912 01A SAGAR 012 01 235 07 SATL 030
T000 103N 0437E 050 R050 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R034
055 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 096N 0427E 035
T024 090N 0419E 025
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 10.3N 43.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.3N 43.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 9.6N 42.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS

2018-05-19 16:01

WTIO31 PGTW 191500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 10.3N 43.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.3N 43.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 9.6N 42.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 9.0N 41.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 10.1N 43.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (SAGAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 88 NM SOUTH-

2018-05-19 16:01

WTIO31 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 10.3N 43.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.3N 43.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 9.6N 42.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 9.0N 41.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 10.1N 43.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (SAGAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 88 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DJIBOUTI CITY, DJIBOUTI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT
POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS DECREASED
SLIGHTLY TO 50 KNOTS BASED ON A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND WITH WARMING
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES EVIDENT IN ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. TC 01A MADE LANDFALL AT APPROXIMATELY 19/0730Z
AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD, OVER LAND, THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND WILL DISSIPATE
BY TAU 24. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS
HIGH. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//

2018-05-19 10:31

WTIO51 PGTW 190900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 01A NIO 180519071348
2018051906 01A SAGAR 011 01 250 05 SATL RADR 050
T000 108N 0442E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
055 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 103N 0434E 035
T024 097N 0425E 025
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 10.8N 44.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8N 44.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 10.3N 43.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

2018-05-19 10:31

WTIO51 PGTW 190900
WARNING ATCG MIL 01A NIO 180519071348
2018051906 01A SAGAR 011 01 250 05 SATL RADR 050
T000 108N 0442E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 055 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 103N 0434E 035
T024 097N 0425E 025
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 10.8N 44.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8N 44.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 10.3N 43.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 9.7N 42.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 10.7N 44.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (SAGAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DJIBOUTI CITY, DJIBOUTI, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z.//
0118051518 113N 538E 25
0118051600 120N 527E 30
0118051606 126N 516E 30
0118051612 130N 505E 30
0118051618 133N 497E 35
0118051700 133N 492E 40
0118051706 132N 487E 40
0118051712 130N 482E 45
0118051718 125N 472E 45
0118051800 119N 464E 50
0118051800 119N 464E 50
0118051806 117N 460E 50
0118051806 117N 460E 50
0118051812 115N 455E 50
0118051812 115N 455E 50
0118051818 112N 451E 55
0118051818 112N 451E 55
0118051900 110N 447E 55
0118051900 110N 447E 55
0118051906 108N 442E 50
0118051906 108N 442E 50

2018-05-19 10:31

WTIO31 PGTW 190900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 10.8N 44.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8N 44.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 10.3N 43.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 9.7N 42.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 10.7N 44.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (SAGAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM

2018-05-19 10:31

WTIO31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 10.8N 44.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8N 44.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 10.3N 43.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 9.7N 42.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 10.7N 44.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (SAGAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DJIBOUTI CITY, DJIBOUTI, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED PRIMARILY
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. CONSEQUENTLY, THE CURRENT INTENSITY
HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY TO 50 KNOTS, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 3.0/3.5 (45/55 KNOTS). OVERALL THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION DUE TO THE LACK OF HIGH-
RESOLUTION MICROWAVE IMAGERY. TC 01A IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
NEAR 19/03Z AND WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD, OVER LAND, THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND
WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z
IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z.//

2018-05-18 23:01

WTIO51 PGTW 182100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 01A NIO 180518200754
2018051818 01A SAGAR 009 01 245 04 SATL 060
T000 113N 0451E 055 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
050 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 109N 0445E 050 R050 010 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R034
055 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 104N 0438E 040 R034 035 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 099N 0431E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 11.3N 45.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.3N 45.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 10.9N 44.5E

2018-05-18 23:01

WTIO51 PGTW 182100
WARNING ATCG MIL 01A NIO 180518200754
2018051818 01A SAGAR 009 01 245 04 SATL 060
T000 113N 0451E 055 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 109N 0445E 050 R050 010 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 055 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 104N 0438E 040 R034 035 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 099N 0431E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 11.3N 45.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.3N 45.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 10.9N 44.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 10.4N 43.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 9.9N 43.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 11.2N 45.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM SOUTH
OF ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.
//
0118051518 113N 538E 25
0118051600 120N 527E 30
0118051606 126N 516E 30
0118051612 130N 505E 30
0118051618 133N 497E 35
0118051700 133N 492E 40
0118051706 132N 487E 40
0118051712 130N 482E 45
0118051718 125N 472E 45
0118051800 119N 464E 50
0118051800 119N 464E 50
0118051806 117N 460E 50
0118051806 117N 460E 50
0118051812 115N 455E 50
0118051812 115N 455E 50
0118051818 113N 451E 55
0118051818 113N 451E 55

2018-05-18 23:01

WTIO31 PGTW 182100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 11.3N 45.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.3N 45.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 10.9N 44.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-05-18 22:46

WTIO31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 11.3N 45.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.3N 45.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 10.9N 44.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 10.4N 43.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 9.9N 43.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 11.2N 45.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (SAGAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM SOUTH
OF ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
SMALL CYCLONE WITH CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION, BASED ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY, IS SUPPORTED BY AN 181801Z ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS HEDGED ABOVE THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 45
KNOTS (T3.0) BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS SHOWING 55 KNOT
WINDS WEST OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS DECENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30-
31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC SAGAR WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE CYCLONE
WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
DJIBOUTI JUST PRIOR TO TAU 24. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS
15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.//

2018-05-18 16:46

WTIO51 PGTW 181500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 01A NIO 180518134312
2018051812 01A SAGAR 008 01 250 05 SATL 030
T000 115N 0455E 050 R050 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
075 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 111N 0448E 050 R050 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
060 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 075 NW QD
T024 107N 0442E 045 R034 050 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD
T036 103N 0434E 035 R034 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 098N 0425E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 11.6N 45.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6N 45.9E

2018-05-18 16:46

WTIO51 PGTW 181500
WARNING ATCG MIL 01A NIO 180518134312
2018051812 01A SAGAR 008 01 250 05 SATL 030
T000 115N 0455E 050 R050 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 111N 0448E 050 R050 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 075 NW QD
T024 107N 0442E 045 R034 050 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD
T036 103N 0434E 035 R034 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 098N 0425E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 11.6N 45.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6N 45.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 11.2N 45.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 10.7N 44.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 10.3N 43.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 9.9N 43.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 11.5N 45.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 89 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.
//
0118051518 113N 538E 25
0118051600 120N 527E 30
0118051606 126N 516E 30
0118051612 130N 505E 30
0118051618 133N 497E 35
0118051700 133N 492E 40
0118051706 132N 487E 40
0118051712 130N 482E 45
0118051718 125N 472E 45
0118051800 119N 464E 50
0118051800 119N 464E 50
0118051806 116N 459E 50
0118051806 116N 459E 50

2018-05-18 16:46

WTIO31 PGTW 181500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 11.5N 45.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.5N 45.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 11.1N 44.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-05-18 16:46

WTIO31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 11.5N 45.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.5N 45.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 11.1N 44.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 10.7N 44.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 10.3N 43.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 9.8N 42.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 11.4N 45.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 83 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CENTRAL AREA OF CONVECTION THAT
IS LOCATED OVER AND OCCLUDING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
A CENTRAL LOW REFLECTIVITY AREA EVIDENT IN AN 181136Z 37GHZ SSMI
MICROWAVE IMAGE AND SUPPORTED BY A MSI SATELLITE FIX FROM PGTW. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 TO T3.5 (45-55 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES
RESPECTIVELY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT, HOWEVER, THE PREVIOUSLY ESTABLISHED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (31+ CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
TC SAGAR CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
AN EXTENSION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM
TO MAINTAIN 50 KNOT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. AS TC 01A
APPROACHES THE WESTERN END OF THE GULF OF ADEN, LAND INTERACTION
COMBINED WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. TC SAGAR IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL SSE OF DJIBOUTI AFTER
TAU 24. ONCE OVER LAND, THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF TERRAIN
INTERACTION WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY TAU 48. AVAILABLE
NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING OVERALL
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z,
190900Z AND 191500Z.//

2018-05-18 11:16

WTIO51 PGTW 180900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 01A NIO 180518084839
2018051806 01A SAGAR 007 01 240 06 SATL 020
T000 116N 0459E 050 R050 035 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
095 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 112N 0453E 050 R050 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
060 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 107N 0446E 045 R034 055 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 065 NW QD
T036 103N 0438E 040 R034 055 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 045 NW QD
T048 099N 0430E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 11.6N 45.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6N 45.9E

2018-05-18 11:16

WTIO51 PGTW 180900
WARNING ATCG MIL 01A NIO 180518084839
2018051806 01A SAGAR 007 01 240 06 SATL 020
T000 116N 0459E 050 R050 035 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 112N 0453E 050 R050 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 107N 0446E 045 R034 055 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 065 NW QD
T036 103N 0438E 040 R034 055 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 045 NW QD
T048 099N 0430E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 11.6N 45.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6N 45.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 11.2N 45.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 10.7N 44.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 10.3N 43.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 9.9N 43.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 11.5N 45.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 89 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.
//
0118051518 113N 538E 25
0118051600 120N 527E 30
0118051606 126N 516E 30
0118051612 130N 505E 30
0118051618 133N 497E 35
0118051700 133N 492E 40
0118051706 132N 487E 40
0118051712 130N 482E 45
0118051718 125N 472E 45
0118051800 119N 464E 50
0118051800 119N 464E 50
0118051806 116N 459E 50
0118051806 116N 459E 50

2018-05-18 11:16

WTIO31 PGTW 180900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 11.6N 45.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6N 45.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 11.2N 45.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-05-18 11:16

WTIO31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 11.6N 45.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6N 45.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 11.2N 45.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 10.7N 44.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 10.3N 43.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 9.9N 43.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 11.5N 45.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 89 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS
A PERSISTENT AREA OF CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER TOP OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM AN 180309Z 37GHZ SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE AND SUPPORTED BY AN 180613Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE
SHOWING A WELL DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS
HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45
KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE
THAT SHOWS SEVERAL 50 KNOT WIND BARBS NEAR THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES CONTINUED DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH A WELL DEFINED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM
IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS
TRACKING THROUGH WARM (31+ CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC
SAGAR HAS TRACKED TO THE SOUTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
EXTENSION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN 50 KNOT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AS TC 01A
APPROACHES THE WESTERN END OF THE GULF OF ADEN DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
AND LAND INTERACTION WILL PREVENT ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL SSE OF DJIBOUTI AND DISSIPATE
OVER SOMALIA BY TAU 48. AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
OVERALL AGREEMENT LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.//

2018-05-18 04:31

WTIO51 PGTW 180300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 01A NIO 180518005815
2018051800 01A SAGAR 006 01 235 09 SATL 025
T000 120N 0464E 045 R034 055 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 114N 0457E 050 R050 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
045 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 109N 0450E 045 R034 050 NE QD 020 SE QD 035 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 104N 0442E 040 R034 045 NE QD 020 SE QD 025 SW QD 055 NW QD
T048 101N 0436E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 12.0N 46.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0N 46.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 11.4N 45.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

2018-05-18 04:31

WTIO51 PGTW 180300
WARNING ATCG MIL 01A NIO 180518005815
2018051800 01A SAGAR 006 01 235 09 SATL 025
T000 120N 0464E 045 R034 055 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 114N 0457E 050 R050 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 109N 0450E 045 R034 050 NE QD 020 SE QD 035 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 104N 0442E 040 R034 045 NE QD 020 SE QD 025 SW QD 055 NW QD
T048 101N 0436E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 12.0N 46.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0N 46.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 11.4N 45.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 10.9N 45.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 10.4N 44.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 10.1N 43.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 11.8N 46.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 95 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.//
0118051518 113N 538E 25
0118051600 120N 527E 30
0118051606 126N 516E 30
0118051612 130N 505E 30
0118051618 133N 497E 35
0118051700 133N 492E 40
0118051706 132N 487E 40
0118051712 130N 482E 45
0118051718 125N 472E 45
0118051800 120N 464E 45

2018-05-18 04:31

WTIO31 PGTW 180300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 12.0N 46.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0N 46.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 11.4N 45.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 10.9N 45.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

2018-05-18 04:31

WTIO31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 12.0N 46.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0N 46.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 11.4N 45.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 10.9N 45.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 10.4N 44.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 10.1N 43.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 11.8N 46.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (SAGAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 95 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SHOWS THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE SHALLOW ALTHOUGH THE BANDING LEADING
INTO THE LLC REMAINS TIGHT AND ORGANIZED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE BANDING FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY THE DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF T3.0 FROM PGTW AND REFLECTS THE SUSTAINED OVERALL IR
SIGNATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES CONTINUED STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS OVER THE SYSTEM. ALONG-TRACK SSTS ALSO REMAIN
WARM AT 30C. HOWEVER, THE TC IS RUNNING OUT OF MOISTURE SOURCE AS
IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN COAST OF SOMALIA. THERE IS, HOWEVER, A
SMALL WINDOW OF SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS
WITH DIURNAL COOLING OF THE CONVECTIVE TOPS. AFTERWARD, TC 01A WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND DIMINISHING MOISTURE.
BY TAU 36 TC SAGAR WILL MAKE LANDFALL SSE OF DJIBOUTI AND DISSIPATE
BY TAU 48. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL
AGREEMENT IN TRAJECTORY BUT WITH INCREASING SPREAD, INDICATIVE OF A
WEAKENING VORTEX. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 16
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.//

2018-05-17 23:16

WTIO51 PGTW 172100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 01A NIO 180517204404
2018051718 01A SAGAR 005 01 245 11 SATL 060
T000 125N 0472E 045 R034 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 120N 0460E 050 R050 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
045 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 115N 0451E 045 R034 050 NE QD 020 SE QD 035 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 110N 0442E 040 R034 045 NE QD 020 SE QD 025 SW QD 055 NW QD
T048 106N 0435E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 12.5N 47.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5N 47.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 12.0N 46.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-05-17 23:01

WTIO51 PGTW 172100
WARNING ATCG MIL 01A NIO 180517204404
2018051718 01A SAGAR 005 01 245 11 SATL 060
T000 125N 0472E 045 R034 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 120N 0460E 050 R050 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 115N 0451E 045 R034 050 NE QD 020 SE QD 035 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 110N 0442E 040 R034 045 NE QD 020 SE QD 025 SW QD 055 NW QD
T048 106N 0435E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 12.5N 47.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5N 47.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 12.0N 46.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 11.5N 45.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 11.0N 44.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 10.6N 43.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 12.4N 46.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM EAST
OF ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z.
//
0118051518 113N 538E 25
0118051600 120N 527E 30
0118051606 126N 516E 30
0118051612 130N 505E 30
0118051618 133N 497E 35
0118051700 133N 492E 40
0118051706 132N 487E 40
0118051712 130N 482E 45
0118051718 125N 472E 45

2018-05-17 23:01

WTIO31 PGTW 172100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 12.5N 47.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5N 47.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 12.0N 46.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 11.5N 45.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

2018-05-17 23:01

WTIO31 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 12.5N 47.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5N 47.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 12.0N 46.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 11.5N 45.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 11.0N 44.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 10.6N 43.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 12.4N 46.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (SAGAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM
EAST OF ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF
THE CYCLONE. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS OBSCURED
BUT BANDING FEATURES AND A 171739Z 89 GHZ AMSU IMAGE SUPPORT THE
INITIAL POSITION. INTENSITY IS HEDGED ABOVE MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS (T2.5) BASED ON A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF
57 KNOTS AND A 171739Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWING 40 KNOTS TO THE
EAST OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
(31+ CELSIUS), HOWEVER, THE SURROUNDING TOPOGRAPHY IS REDUCING
AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO SUSTAIN INTENSIFICATION. TC 01A IS TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE COMBINED STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH AND THE SURROUNDING TOPOGRAPHY
CHANNELING THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE GULF OF ADEN. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
AFOREMENTIONED STEERING, SLOWING JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL AS THE
TOPOGRAPHIC STEERING INFLUENCE IS INFLUENCED BY LAND TO THE
SOUTHWEST. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TRACKING DOWN THE GULF OF ADEN,
THE INHIBITING INFLUENCE OF THE SURROUNDING LAND WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AFTER TAU 12 AND THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER LANDFALL AROUND TAU 48. OF NOTE, DEVIATIONS IN THE
TRACK WILL LIKELY INCREASE LAND INTERACTION AND WEAKEN THE CYCLONE
MORE QUICKLY. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z.//

2018-05-17 17:31

WTIO51 PGTW 171500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 01A NIO 180517135554
2018051712 01A SAGAR 004 01 245 07 SATL 030
T000 129N 0481E 045 R034 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 125N 0471E 050 R050 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
045 NE QD 025 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 121N 0463E 055 R050 015 NE QD 005 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
050 NE QD 025 SE QD 040 SW QD 065 NW QD
T036 117N 0455E 050 R050 015 NE QD 005 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
055 NE QD 025 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 112N 0446E 045 R034 070 NE QD 035 SE QD 045 SW QD 075 NW QD
T072 102N 0427E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 12.9N 48.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9N 48.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 12.5N 47.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

2018-05-17 17:31

WTIO51 PGTW 171500
WARNING ATCG MIL 01A NIO 180517135554
2018051712 01A SAGAR 004 01 245 07 SATL 030
T000 129N 0481E 045 R034 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 125N 0471E 050 R050 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 045 NE QD 025 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 121N 0463E 055 R050 015 NE QD 005 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 025 SE QD 040 SW QD 065 NW QD
T036 117N 0455E 050 R050 015 NE QD 005 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 055 NE QD 025 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 112N 0446E 045 R034 070 NE QD 035 SE QD 045 SW QD 075 NW QD
T072 102N 0427E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 12.9N 48.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9N 48.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 12.5N 47.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 12.1N 46.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 11.7N 45.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 11.2N 44.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 10.2N 42.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 12.8N 47.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 181 NM EAST
OF ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.
//
0118051518 113N 538E 25
0118051600 120N 527E 30
0118051606 126N 516E 30
0118051612 130N 505E 30
0118051618 133N 497E 35
0118051700 133N 492E 40
0118051706 132N 487E 40
0118051712 129N 481E 45

2018-05-17 17:31

WTIO31 PGTW 171500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 12.9N 48.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9N 48.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 12.5N 47.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 12.1N 46.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

2018-05-17 17:31

WTIO31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 12.9N 48.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9N 48.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 12.5N 47.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 12.1N 46.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 11.7N 45.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 11.2N 44.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 10.2N 42.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 12.8N 47.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 181 NM EAST
OF ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN AREA OF CONVECTION THAT
HAS, AT TIMES, SHOWN A SMALL DIMPLE FEATURE. THE CENTRAL AREA OF
CONVECTION IS COVERING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE
PRESENT IN A 170913Z 36GHZ AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INTENSITY OF 45
KNOTS IS HEDGED ABOVE RECENT DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5
FROM PGTW AND KNES BASED ON THE IMPROVING CONVECTIVE BANDING AND
MICROWAVE EYE. THE INTENISTY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A RECENT SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 49 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS
GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH AN ESTABLISHED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW
(10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF
VERY WARM (31+ CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 01A IS TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE COMBINED STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE EXTENSION
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND THE LOW TO MID-
LEVEL FLOW FOLLOWING THE COASTAL TOPOGRAPHY. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE
CONTINUOUS INFLUENCE OF THESE STEERING FEATURES. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
REMAIN OVERALL FAVORABLE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE
GULF OF ADEN. THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY, REACHING A PEAK OF 55
KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, LAND INTERACTION NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE GULF WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. TC SAGAR IS FORECAST TO MAKE
LANDFALL AFTER TAU 48, COMPLETELY DISSIPATING OVER LAND BY TAU 72.
HOWEVER, SMALL DEVIATIONS IN THE TRACK COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
INTENSITY CHANGES DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED LAND
INTERACTION. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.//

2018-05-17 11:31

WTIO51 PGTW 170900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 01A NIO 180517090209
2018051706 01A ONE 003 01 255 04 SATL 030
T000 132N 0488E 040 R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 129N 0480E 045 R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 125N 0470E 050 R050 010 NE QD 005 SE QD 010 SW QD 015 NW QD R034
045 NE QD 035 SE QD 045 SW QD 075 NW QD
T036 120N 0459E 045 R034 045 NE QD 030 SE QD 045 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 115N 0449E 040 R034 065 NE QD 025 SE QD 045 SW QD 105 NW QD
T072 105N 0428E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 13.2N 48.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 48.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 12.9N 48.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

2018-05-17 11:31

WTIO51 PGTW 170900
WARNING ATCG MIL 01A NIO 180517090209
2018051706 01A ONE 003 01 255 04 SATL 030
T000 132N 0488E 040 R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 129N 0480E 045 R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 125N 0470E 050 R050 010 NE QD 005 SE QD 010 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 045 NE QD 035 SE QD 045 SW QD 075 NW QD
T036 120N 0459E 045 R034 045 NE QD 030 SE QD 045 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 115N 0449E 040 R034 065 NE QD 025 SE QD 045 SW QD 105 NW QD
T072 105N 0428E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 13.2N 48.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 48.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 12.9N 48.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 12.5N 47.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 12.0N 45.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 11.5N 44.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 10.5N 42.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 13.1N 48.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 223 NM EAST OF
ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.
//
0118051518 113N 538E 25
0118051600 120N 527E 30
0118051606 126N 516E 30
0118051612 130N 505E 30
0118051618 133N 497E 35
0118051700 133N 492E 40
0118051706 132N 488E 40

2018-05-17 11:31

WTIO31 PGTW 170900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 13.2N 48.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 48.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 12.9N 48.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 12.5N 47.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-05-17 11:31

WTIO31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 13.2N 48.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 48.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 12.9N 48.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 12.5N 47.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 12.0N 45.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 11.5N 44.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 10.5N 42.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 13.1N 48.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 223 NM EAST OF
ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO
A CENTRAL AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED OVER AND OCCLUDING THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE PRESENT IN A 170736Z
37GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HEDGED ABOVE
RECENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 FROM PGTW AND KNES BASED
ON THE IMPROVING CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES AND IS SUPPORTED BY A
RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 43 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT
THE SYSTEM HAS A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-10 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM (31+
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 01A HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS UNDER THE COMBINED STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND THE LOW TO MID-
LEVEL FLOW FOLLOWING THE COASTAL TERRAIN. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER
THE CONTINUOUS INFLUENCE OF THESE STEERING FEATURES. THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR-TERM, WITH
WARM ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAINING VERY HIGH,
PERSISTENT LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A SUPPORTIVE POLEWARD UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A LIMITED INFLOW
PATTERN RESULTING FROM THE SYSTEMS PROXIMITY TO LAND WILL PREVENT
EXTENSIVE INTENSIFICATION. AS AN ADDITIONAL NOTE, DUE TO THE
SYSTEMS PROXIMITY TO LAND, SMALL DEVIATIONS IN THE TRACK COULD
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY CHANGES DUE TO POTENTIAL LAND
INTERACTION. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
AND THE SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN IS WELL ESTABLISHED, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.//

2018-05-17 08:31

WTIO51 PGTW 170300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 01A NIO 180517023141
2018051700 01A ONE 002 01 260 06 SATL 040
T000 131N 0489E 040 R034 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 045 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 129N 0479E 045 R034 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 125N 0467E 045 R034 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 120N 0456E 040 R034 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 115N 0446E 035 R034 045 NE QD 035 SE QD 045 SW QD 075 NW QD
T072 106N 0430E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 13.1N 48.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 48.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 12.9N 47.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-05-17 08:31

WTIO51 PGTW 170300
WARNING ATCG MIL 01A NIO 180517023141
2018051700 01A ONE 002 01 260 06 SATL 040
T000 131N 0489E 040 R034 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 045 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 129N 0479E 045 R034 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 125N 0467E 045 R034 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 120N 0456E 040 R034 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 115N 0446E 035 R034 045 NE QD 035 SE QD 045 SW QD 075 NW QD
T072 106N 0430E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 13.1N 48.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 48.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 12.9N 47.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 12.5N 46.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 12.0N 45.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 11.5N 44.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 10.6N 43.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 13.0N 48.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 229 NM EAST OF
ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.
//
0118051518 113N 538E 25
0118051600 120N 527E 30
0118051606 126N 516E 30
0118051612 130N 505E 30
0118051618 132N 495E 35
0118051700 131N 489E 40

2018-05-17 08:31

WTIO51 PGTW 162100
WARNING ATCG MIL 01A NIO 180516195306
2018051618 01A ONE 001 01 280 10 SATL 060
T000 132N 0495E 035 R034 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 132N 0486E 040 R034 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 045 SW QD 055 NW QD
T024 128N 0471E 045 R034 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 124N 0458E 045 R034 065 NE QD 030 SE QD 060 SW QD 085 NW QD
T048 119N 0446E 040 R034 065 NE QD 025 SE QD 045 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 112N 0431E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 13.2N 49.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 49.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 13.2N 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 12.8N 47.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 12.4N 45.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 11.9N 44.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 11.2N 43.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 49.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 687 NM
SOUTHWEST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.
//
0118051518 113N 538E 25
0118051600 120N 527E 30
0118051606 126N 516E 30
0118051612 130N 505E 30
0118051618 132N 495E 35

2018-05-17 08:31

WTIO51 PGTW 162100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 01A NIO 180516195306
2018051618 01A ONE 001 01 280 10 SATL 060
T000 132N 0495E 035 R034 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 132N 0486E 040 R034 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 045 SW QD 055 NW QD
T024 128N 0471E 045 R034 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 124N 0458E 045 R034 065 NE QD 030 SE QD 060 SW QD 085 NW QD
T048 119N 0446E 040 R034 065 NE QD 025 SE QD 045 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 112N 0431E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 13.2N 49.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 49.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 13.2N 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-05-17 08:31

WTIO31 PGTW 170300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 13.1N 48.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 48.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 12.9N 47.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 12.5N 46.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-05-17 08:31

WTIO31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 13.1N 48.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 48.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 12.9N 47.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 12.5N 46.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 12.0N 45.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 11.5N 44.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 10.6N 43.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 13.0N 48.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 229 NM EAST OF
ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED, WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE, ON LOW-
LEVEL TURNING EVIDENT IN A 162143Z AMSR2 PASS AND A 170000Z
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY FIX FROM PGTW. THE INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS
IS SET SLIGHTLY ABOVE RECENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5
FROM PGTW AND KNES BASED ON THE IMPROVING CONVECTIVE BANDING
STRUCTURE. TC 01A HAS TURNED WESTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH
AND LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW FOLLOWING THE COASTAL TERRAIN. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER
THE CONTINUOUS INFLUENCE OF THESE STEERING FEATURES. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IN THE
NEAR-TERM, WITH WARM ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (ABOUT
30C), LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR(10-15 KNOTS) AND A SUPPORTIVE
POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. A CONSTRAINED INFLOW PATTERN
RESULTING FROM THE PROXIMITY TO LAND AND A LESS FAVORABLE UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ARE EXPECTED TO HALT THIS INTENSIFICATION TREND
AND LEAD TO SLOW WEAKENING AFTER TAU 24.IT IS ALSO WORTH NOTING
THAT SMALL DEVIATIONS IN THE TRACK COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
INTENSITY CHANGES DUE TO POTENTIAL LAND INTERACTION. NUMERICAL
MODEL TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT AND THE
SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN IS RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 11 FEET.NEXT WARNINGS AT
170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.//

2018-05-17 08:31

WTIO31 PGTW 162100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 13.2N 49.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 49.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 13.2N 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 12.8N 47.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-05-17 08:31

WTIO31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 13.2N 49.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 49.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 13.2N 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 12.8N 47.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 12.4N 45.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 11.9N 44.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 11.2N 43.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 49.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 687 NM
SOUTHWEST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. CURRENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND DEVELOPING BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE
1745Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS
HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.0 BASED ON CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OF THE CYCLONE.
TC 01A IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C), LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS),
AND GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE PRIMARY LIMITING
FACTOR FOR INTENSIFICATION IS THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND. TC 01A IS
FORECAST TO TURN ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AS IT IS STEERED BY A
COMBINATION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST AND FLOW
FOLLOWING THE COASTAL TERRAIN. INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
THROUGH TAU 24 BEFORE REMAINING STEADY UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL AND
DISSIPATING BY TAU 72. THE FORECAST INTENSITY DEPENDS HEAVILY ON THE
TRACK AND MINOR DEVIATIONS COULD INCREASE LAND INTERACTION AND
RESULT IN MORE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST, BUT SMALL
DEVIATIONS IN TRACK COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY CHANGES. BASED
ON HIGH MODEL AGREEMENT, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.//