Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ILEANA-18
in Mexico

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2018-08-07 09:31

WTPZ41 KNHC 070233 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018
1000 PM CDT MON AUG 06 2018

GOES-16 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A COUPLE OF EARLIER MICROWAVE
IMAGES INDICATE THAT ILEANA'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME RATHER
AMORPHOUS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, AND THE DISTINCT LOW CLOUD
ELEMENTS IDENTIFIED EARLIER TODAY IN VISIBLE IMAGERY ARE NO LONGER
EVIDENT. BASED ON THE DETERIORATING SATELLITE PRESENTATION, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY, WHICH IS
STILL A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB.

THE GLOBAL AND HURRICANE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ILEANA
DISSIPATING IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS, AS A RESULT OF LARGER HURRICANE
JOHN'S UPPER TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW. THE UKMET, HOWEVER, MAINTAINS
ILEANA AS A SHALLOW TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR A LITTLE LONGER...ABOUT 36
HOURS PRIOR TO DISSIPATION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SIDES
WITH THE MODEL MAJORITY SOLUTION SHOWING THE CYCLONE EITHER
BEING ABSORBED BY JOHN, OR DISSIPATING IN ABOUT 24 HOURS, AND IS
ALSO BASED ON A SIMILAR SCENARIO REFLECTED IN THE LGEM STATISTICAL
INTENSITY MODEL OUTPUT.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS A BIT UNCLEAR, BUT STILL APPEARS TO BE
NORTHWESTWARD AND LITTLE FASTER...305/17 KT. ILEANA IS FORECAST TO
MOVE BETWEEN HURRICANE JOHN TO THE WEST AND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND NORTHERN MEXICO UNTIL THE
CYCLONE DISSIPATES. THE NHC FORECAST IS AGAIN NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE TVCN MODEL
CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 18.0N 104.9W 50 KT 60 MPH

2018-08-07 09:31

WTPZ41 KNHC 070233
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018
1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018

GOES-16 visible satellite imagery and a couple of earlier microwave
images indicate that Ileana's cloud pattern has become rather
amorphous during the past several hours, and the distinct low cloud
elements identified earlier today in visible imagery are no longer
evident. Based on the deteriorating satellite presentation, the
initial intensity is lowered to 50 kt for this advisory, which is
still a little higher than the subjective intensity estimates from
TAFB and SAB.

The global and hurricane models are in good agreement with Ileana
dissipating in less than 24 hours, as a result of larger Hurricane
John's upper tropospheric outflow. The UKMET, however, maintains
Ileana as a shallow tropical cyclone for a little longer...about 36
hours prior to dissipation. The official intensity forecast sides
with the model majority solution showing the cyclone either
being absorbed by John, or dissipating in about 24 hours, and is
also based on a similar scenario reflected in the LGEM statistical
intensity model output.

The initial motion remains a bit unclear, but still appears to be
northwestward and little faster...305/17 kt. Ileana is forecast to
move between Hurricane John to the west and a deep-layer ridge
extending over the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico until the
cyclone dissipates. The NHC forecast is again nudged slightly to
the right of the previous advisory and is close to the TVCN model
consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 18.0N 104.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 19.3N 107.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 20.8N 111.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-08-07 09:31

WTPZ41 KNHC 062034 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018
400 PM CDT MON AUG 06 2018

THERE HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST REASONING FOR
ILEANA. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS BEING
ADVERSELY AFFECTED BY THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF JOHN MUCH SOONER
THAN ANTICIPATED. IN FACT, ILEANA IS LOOKING MORE LIKE AN OUTER
BAND OF JOHN AT THIS TIME. NONETHELESS, A RECENT ASCAT OVERPASS
INDICATED THAT ILEANA IS STILL A SEPARATE SYSTEM TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST OF JOHN AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A CURRENT INTENSITY
OF 55 KT. HOWEVER GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF ILEANA TODAY, THE
PREVIOUS NHC SHORT-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST IS REVERSED. ILEANA
IS NO LONGER PREDICTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE, AND THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE OR BECOME ABSORBED BY JOHN'S
CIRCULATION IN 24-36 HOURS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME MODELS,
SUCH AS THE HWRF, GFS, AND ECMWF DEPICT ILEANA'S DEMISE EVEN SOONER
THAN THAT.

SINCE THE CLOUD PATTERN OF ILEANA HAS BECOME RATHER DISORGANIZED,
IT IS DIFFICULT TO TRACK A CENTER AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN
UNCERTAIN 305/15 KT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE AND THE CIRCULATION OF JOHN UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE, BUT A LITTLE TO
THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE 34- AND 50-KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE
SCATTEROMETER DATA.

THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO IS
DISCONTINUED. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IS ALSO DISCONTINUED FOR ILEANA, BUT A

2018-08-07 09:31

WTPZ41 KNHC 062034
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018
400 PM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018

There have been significant changes to the forecast reasoning for
Ileana. Recent satellite imagery suggest that the system is being
adversely affected by the large circulation of John much sooner
than anticipated. In fact, Ileana is looking more like an outer
band of John at this time. Nonetheless, a recent ASCAT overpass
indicated that Ileana is still a separate system to the
east-northeast of John and continues to support a current intensity
of 55 kt. However given the evolution of Ileana today, the
previous NHC short-term intensity forecast is reversed. Ileana
is no longer predicted to become a hurricane, and the tropical
cyclone is likely to dissipate or become absorbed by John's
circulation in 24-36 hours. It should be noted that some models,
such as the HWRF, GFS, and ECMWF depict Ileana's demise even sooner
than that.

Since the cloud pattern of Ileana has become rather disorganized,
it is difficult to track a center and the initial motion is an
uncertain 305/15 kt. The cyclone should move between a mid-level
ridge and the circulation of John until dissipation. The official
track forecast is a little left of the previous one, but a little to
the right of the track model consensus.

The 34- and 50-kt wind radii have been adjusted based on the
scatterometer data.

The hurricane watch for the southwest coast of Mexico is
discontinued. The tropical storm watch for the extreme southern
Baja California peninsula is also discontinued for Ileana, but a
watch for this same general are may soon be required for John.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 17.0N 103.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 18.2N 105.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 19.5N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

2018-08-07 09:31

WTPZ41 KNHC 061439 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018
1000 AM CDT MON AUG 06 2018

ILEANA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR ITS CENTER,
WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80 DEG C. MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE
ACAPULCO RADAR HAVE SHOWN SOME EYEWALL STRUCTURE, AT LEAST AT
MID-LEVELS. ALTHOUGH CONVENTIONAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB
AND SAB PROVIDED INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF ONLY 45 KT, THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 55 KT IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SATCON ESTIMATES
FROM UW-CIMSS. SINCE ILEANA WILL BE IN A MOIST, LOW-SHEAR, AND WARM
WATER ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN INTO A
HURRICANE WITHIN 12 HOURS OR SO, WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER, THE INFLUENCE
OF THE MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION OF JOHN TO THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN HAVING AN ADVERSE EFFECT ON ILEANA. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
BEGIN WEAKENING LATER ON TUESDAY, AND DISSIPATE OR BECOME ABSORBED
BY JOHN ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS THE SCENARIO THAT IS DEPICTED BY THE
ECMWF AND GFS GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

ILEANA CONTINUES TO MOVE BRISKLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR ABOUT
310/15 KT. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BETWEEN A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND THE CIRCULATION OF JOHN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE BUT A LITTLE NORTH OF THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

NO CHANGES TO THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.
ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE
OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE

2018-08-07 09:31

WTPZ41 KNHC 061439
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018
1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018

Ileana continues to produce very deep convection near its center,
with cloud tops colder than -80 deg C. Microwave imagery and the
Acapulco radar have shown some eyewall structure, at least at
mid-levels. Although conventional Dvorak classifications from TAFB
and SAB provided intensity estimates of only 45 kt, the advisory
intensity is kept at 55 kt in better agreement with SATCON estimates
from UW-CIMSS. Since Ileana will be in a moist, low-shear, and warm
water environment, the system is likely to strengthen into a
hurricane within 12 hours or so, with some additional
intensification through Tuesday morning. Thereafter, the influence
of the much larger circulation of John to the southwest is expected
to begin having an adverse effect on Ileana. The system should
begin weakening later on Tuesday, and dissipate or become absorbed
by John on Wednesday. This is the scenario that is depicted by the
ECMWF and GFS global model guidance.

Ileana continues to move briskly toward the northwest or about
310/15 kt. The tropical cyclone is expected to move between a
mid-level ridge and the circulation of John for the next couple of
days. The official track forecast is a little to the left of the
previous one but a little north of the latest multi-model consensus.

No changes to the watches and warnings are required at this time.
Although the core of strongest winds is forecast to remain offshore
of the coast of southwestern Mexico, only a slight deviation to the
right of track could bring stronger winds onshore, particularly in
the area where the hurricane watch has been posted.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 16.3N 101.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 17.8N 104.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 19.3N 107.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 20.5N 109.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 21.5N 111.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

2018-08-07 09:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 070553 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ILEANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018
100 AM CDT TUE AUG 07 2018

...ILEANA WEAKENS SOME MORE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 106.0W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... TECPAN DE GALEANA TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 106.0 WEST. ILEANA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 23 MPH (37 KM/H), AND A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ILEANA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN FURTHER DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF THE MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE JOHN TO THE
SOUTHWEST, AND THE SMALL CYCLONE SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (110 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

2018-08-07 09:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 070553
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ileana Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018
100 AM CDT Tue Aug 07 2018

...ILEANA WEAKENS SOME MORE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 106.0W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was
located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 106.0 West. Ileana is
moving toward the northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h), and a turn toward
the west-northwest is expected later today.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Ileana is forecast to weaken further due to the
influence of the much larger circulation of Hurricane John to the
southwest, and the small cyclone should dissipate later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring within portions
of the warning area. However, tropical storm conditions will
rapidly diminish later this morning.

RAINFALL: Ileana is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
1 to 3 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of
Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco...with isolated maximum amounts
of 5 inches through Tuesday night. These rains may cause flash
flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will be affecting portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-08-07 09:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 070233
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ileana Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018
1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018

...ILEANA A LITTLE WEAKER...
...STILL MOVING PARALLEL AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 104.9W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 104.9 West. Ileana is
moving toward the northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and a
west-northwestward motion is expected on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Ileana is forecast to weaken due to the influence
of the much larger circulation of Hurricane John to the southwest,
and to dissipate by late Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area through early Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Ileana is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
1 to 3 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of
Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco...with isolated maximum amounts
of 5 inches through Tuesday night. These rains may cause flash
flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will be affecting portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-08-07 09:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 070233 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ILEANA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018
1000 PM CDT MON AUG 06 2018

...ILEANA A LITTLE WEAKER...
......................................................................
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
.....S
....ST
...STI
..STIL
.STILL
MOVING
PARALLEL
AND
JUST
OFFSHORE
OF
THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 104.9W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
......................................................................
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
TECPAN
DE
GALEANA
TO
CABO
CORRIENTES
MEXICO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 104.9 WEST. ILEANA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH (33 KM/H), AND A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

2018-08-07 09:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 062338 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ILEANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018
700 PM CDT MON AUG 06 2018

...ILEANA MOVING PARALLEL AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 104.0W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... TECPAN DE GALEANA TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 104.0 WEST. ILEANA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH (30 KM/H), AND A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ILEANA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE
MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE JOHN TO THE SOUTHWEST, AND TO
DISSIPATE BY LATE TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES (130 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB (29.47 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE

2018-08-07 09:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 062338
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ileana Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018
700 PM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018

...ILEANA MOVING PARALLEL AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 104.0W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was
located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 104.0 West. Ileana is
moving toward the northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a
west-northwestward motion is expected on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Ileana is forecast to weaken due to the influence of the
much larger circulation of Hurricane John to the southwest, and to
dissipate by late Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area through early Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Ileana is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of
Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 6 inches through Tuesday night. These rains may
cause flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will be affecting portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-08-07 09:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 062034 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ILEANA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018
400 PM CDT MON AUG 06 2018

...ILEANA NO LONGER EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...
..................COULD DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 103.3W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM
PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA MEXICO, AND THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FROM LOS BARILLES TO TODOS SANTOS MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
................ TECPAN DE GALEANA TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 103.3 WEST. ILEANA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH (28 KM/H). A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ILEANA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE
MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION OF JOHN TO THE SOUTHWEST, AND TO DISSIPATE
BY LATE TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES (130 KM)

2018-08-07 09:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 062034
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ileana Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018
400 PM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018

...ILEANA NO LONGER EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...
...COULD DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 103.3W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Watch from
Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula Mexico, and the Tropical Storm
Watch from Los Barilles to Todos Santos Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was
located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 103.3 West. Ileana is
moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A
west-northwestward motion is expected through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Ileana is forecast to weaken due to the influence of the
much larger circulation of John to the southwest, and to dissipate
by late Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the
warning area through early Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Ileana is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of
Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 6 inches through Tuesday night. These rains may
cause flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will be affecting portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

2018-08-07 09:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 061739 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ILEANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018
100 PM CDT MON AUG 06 2018

...RAINBANDS OF ILEANA NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 102.7W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... TECPAN DE GALEANA TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... LOS BARILLES TO TODO SANTOS MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A WATCH IS ISSUED BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS

2018-08-07 09:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 061739
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ileana Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018
100 PM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018

...RAINBANDS OF ILEANA NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 102.7W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Los Barilles to Todo Santos Mexico

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.
A watch is issued before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was
located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 102.7 West. Ileana is
moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a turn toward
the west-northwest is expected on Tuesday, with a continued
west-northwestward track at a reduced forward speed into Wednesday.
On the forecast track, Ileana's center is forecast to move parallel
to and just offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico through
early Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Ileana is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane later
today. Gradual weakening is expected to begin Tuesday night, and
Ileana is forecast to dissipate by Wednesday afternoon or evening
due to its proximity to the much larger Tropical Storm or Hurricane
John located to its southwest.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area tonight
and early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within
portions of the warning area through early Tuesday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area over southern Baja
California Sur by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Ileana is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of
Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 6 inches through Tuesday night. These rains may
cause flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will be affecting portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

2018-08-07 09:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 061439
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ileana Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018
1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018

...ILEANA LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 101.9W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Los Barilles to Todo Santos Mexico

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.
A watch is issued before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was
located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 101.9 West. Ileana is
moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a turn
toward the west-northwest is expected on Tuesday, with a continued
west-northwestward track at a reduced forward speed into Wednesday.
On the forecast track, Ileana's center is forecast to move parallel
to and just offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico through
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Ileana is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane later
today. Gradual weakening is expected to begin Tuesday night, and
Ileana is forecast to dissipate by Wednesday afternoon or evening
due to its proximity to the much larger Tropical Storm or Hurricane
John located to its southwest.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area tonight
and early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within
portions of the warning area through early Tuesday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area over southern Baja
California Sur by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Ileana is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of
Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 6 inches through Tuesday night. These rains may
cause flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will be affecting portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

2018-08-07 09:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 061439 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ILEANA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018
1000 AM CDT MON AUG 06 2018

...ILEANA LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 101.9W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... TECPAN DE GALEANA TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... LOS BARILLES TO TODO SANTOS MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A WATCH IS ISSUED BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS

2018-08-07 09:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 061141
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ileana Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018
700 AM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018

...ILEANA EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 101.2W
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning
eastward from Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan de Galeana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Los Barilles to Todo Santos Mexico

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.
A watch is issued before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was
located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 101.2 West. Ileana is
moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue into Wednesday. On the forecast
track, Ileana's center is forecast to move parallel to and just
offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and
Ileana is forecast to become a hurricane by Tuesday morning.
Gradual weakening is expected to begin Tuesday night, and Ileana is
forecast to dissipate by Wednesday afternoon or evening due to its
proximity to the much larger Tropical Storm or Hurricane John
located to its southwest.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area tonight
and early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the
warning area late today through early Tuesday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area over southern Baja
California Sur Wednesday morning.

RAINFALL: Ileana is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of
Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 6 inches through Tuesday night. These rains may
cause flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will be affecting portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

2018-08-07 09:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 061141 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ILEANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018
700 AM CDT MON AUG 06 2018

...ILEANA EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 101.2W
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
EASTWARD FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO TECPAN DE GALEANA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... TECPAN DE GALEANA TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... LOS BARILLES TO TODO SANTOS MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A WATCH IS ISSUED BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

2018-08-07 09:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 060858 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ILEANA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018
400 AM CDT MON AUG 06 2018

...ILEANA GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE BY TUESDAY...
.........................................................HURRICANE AND
TROPICAL
STORM
WATCHES
ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 100.3W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM PUNTA
SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM LOS BARILLES
TO TODO SANTOS, INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
....................................................... PUNTA SAN
TELMO
TO
PLAYA
PERULA
MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
....................................................... LAZARO
CARDENAS
TO
CABO
CORRIENTES
MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
....................................................... LOS BARILLES
TO
TODO
SANTOS
MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

2018-08-07 09:31

WTPZ21 KNHC 070232
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018
0300 UTC TUE AUG 07 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. TECPAN DE GALEANA TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 104.9W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 104.9W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 104.1W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.3N 107.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.8N 111.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 104.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

....
FORECASTER ROBERTS

2018-08-07 09:31

WTPZ21 KNHC 062033
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018
2100 UTC MON AUG 06 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM
PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA MEXICO...AND THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FROM LOS BARILLES TO TODOS SANTOS MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. TECPAN DE GALEANA TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 103.3W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 103.3W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 102.5W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.2N 105.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.5N 109.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 103.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

...
FORECASTER PASCH

2018-08-07 09:31

WTPZ21 KNHC 061438 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018
1500 UTC MON AUG 06 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... TECPAN DE GALEANA TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... LOS BARILLES TO TODO SANTOS MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A WATCH IS ISSUED BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 101.9W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 101.9W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 101.2W

2018-08-07 09:31

WTPZ21 KNHC 061438
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018
1500 UTC MON AUG 06 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LOS BARILLES TO TODO SANTOS MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A WATCH IS ISSUED BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 101.9W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 101.9W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 101.2W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.8N 104.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.3N 107.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.5N 109.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.5N 111.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 101.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

2018-08-07 09:31

WTPN32 PHNC 070400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (ILEANA) WARNING NR 010
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 17.5N 104.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 104.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 19.3N 107.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 20.8N 111.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070400Z POSITION NEAR 18.1N 105.2W.
TROPICAL STORM 11E (ILEANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1151 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
070000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071000Z, 071600Z AND 072200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10E (HECTOR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12E (JOHN)
WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-08-07 09:31

WTPN32 PHNC 062200
WARNING ATCG MIL 11E NEP 180806221229
2018080618 11E ILEANA 009 03 305 15 SATL 030
T000 166N 1025W 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 182N 1058W 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 195N 1090W 045 R034 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 11E (ILEANA) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (ILEANA) WARNING NR 009
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 16.6N 102.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 102.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 18.2N 105.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 19.5N 109.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
062200Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 103.6W.
TROPICAL STORM 11E (ILEANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1249 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 070400Z, 071000Z AND 071600Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1118080306 110N 895W 20
1118080318 110N 895W 20
1118080400 112N 911W 20
1118080406 115N 924W 20
1118080412 119N 936W 20
1118080418 123N 945W 25
1118080500 128N 955W 25
1118080506 130N 963W 30
1118080512 133N 971W 30
1118080518 136N 979W 40
1118080600 141N 988W 45
1118080606 149N1000W 50
1118080606 149N1000W 50
1118080612 158N1012W 55
1118080612 158N1012W 55
1118080618 166N1025W 55
1118080618 166N1025W 55
NNNN

2018-08-07 09:31

WTPN32 PHNC 061000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (ILEANA) WARNING NR 007
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 14.7N 99.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7N 99.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 16.5N 102.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 18.5N 105.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 20.3N 107.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 21.6N 110.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061000Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 100.6W.
TROPICAL STORM 11E (ILEANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1438 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 061600Z, 062200Z, 070400Z AND 071000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10E (HECTOR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12E (JOHN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-08-07 09:31

WTPN32 PHNC 061600
WARNING ATCG MIL 11E NEP 180806150259
2018080612 11E ILEANA 008 03 310 15 SATL 025
T000 158N 1012W 055 R050 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 178N 1042W 065 R064 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 193N 1072W 070 R064 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 205N 1095W 060 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 215N 1116W 050 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 11E (ILEANA) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (ILEANA) WARNING NR 008
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 15.8N 101.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 101.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 17.8N 104.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 19.3N 107.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 20.5N 109.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 21.5N 111.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061600Z POSITION NEAR 16.5N 102.2W.
TROPICAL STORM 11E (ILEANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1332 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 062200Z, 070400Z, 071000Z AND 071600Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1118080306 110N 895W 20
1118080318 110N 895W 20
1118080400 112N 911W 20
1118080406 115N 924W 20
1118080412 119N 936W 20
1118080418 123N 945W 25
1118080500 128N 955W 25
1118080506 130N 963W 30
1118080512 133N 971W 30
1118080518 136N 979W 40
1118080600 141N 988W 45
1118080606 149N1000W 50
1118080606 149N1000W 50
1118080612 158N1012W 55
1118080612 158N1012W 55
NNNN

2018-08-07 09:16

WTPZ41 KNHC 060859 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018
400 AM CDT MON AUG 06 2018

A STRONG BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION CONSISTING OF SOME CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES OF -85 TO -90 DEG C NEAR THE CENTER HAS DEVELOPED
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO)
FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED AS A RESULT, AND THE ACAPULCO, MEXICO, RADAR
INDICATES THAT A BANDED EYE FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED IN THE CENTER OF
THE CDO. BASED ON THE RADAR DATA AND A UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE OF
T3.6/57 KT, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KT.

ILEANA HAS BEGUN TO ACCELERATE AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING TROPICAL STORM JOHN, AND INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
IS NOW 310/15 KT. LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK OTHER THAN TO NUDGE THE FORECAST A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT,
CLOSER TO MEXICO, DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION BASED
ON THE AFOREMENTIONED RADAR DATA. ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TROPICAL STORM JOHN AND A DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE OVER MEXICO. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THIS TRACK SCENARIO UNTIL DISSIPATION OR ABSORPTION OCCURS IN
ABOUT 72 HOURS, AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK LIES CLOSE TO THE HCCA
AND FSSE CONSENSUS TRACK MODEL SOLUTIONS.

THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO AROUND 15 KT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS, AND THE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS ACTUALLY INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR
COULD BE LOWER THAN THAT SINCE MOST OF THE STRONGER OUTFLOW FROM
TROPICAL STORM JOHN WILL REMAIN NORTH OF ILEANA. BASED ON THE
EXPECTED LOWER SHEAR CONDITIONS, A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE, SSTS

2018-08-07 09:16

WTPZ41 KNHC 060859
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018
400 AM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018

A strong burst of deep convection consisting of some cloud top
temperatures of -85 to -90 deg C near the center has developed
during the past several hours. A Central Dense Overcast (CDO)
feature has developed as a result, and the Acapulco, Mexico, radar
indicates that a banded eye feature has developed in the center of
the CDO. Based on the radar data and a UW-CIMSS ADT estimate of
T3.6/57 kt, the initial intensity has been increased to 55 kt.

Ileana has begun to accelerate around the eastern periphery of
rapidly developing Tropical Storm John, and initial motion estimate
is now 310/15 kt. Little change was made to the previous forecast
track other than to nudge the forecast a little more to the right,
closer to Mexico, due to the more eastward initial position based
on the aforementioned radar data. Ileana is expected to continue
moving northwestward between Tropical Storm John and a deep-layer
ridge over Mexico. The NHC model guidance remains in good agreement
on this track scenario until dissipation or absorption occurs in
about 72 hours, and the new forecast track lies close to the HCCA
and FSSE consensus track model solutions.

The shear is forecast to decrease to around 15 kt over the next 24
hours, and the global model fields actually indicate that the shear
could be lower than that since most of the stronger outflow from
Tropical Storm John will remain north of Ileana. Based on the
expected lower shear conditions, a very moist atmosphere, SSTs
near 30 deg C, and the much improved internal structure noted in
radar data, Ileana is forecast to become a hurricane within the
next 24 hours. The official intensity forecast follows the upward
trend of the consensus models FSSE and HCCA, but is a little lower
and closer to the IVCN intensity consensus model.

The forecast tropical-storm-force wind radii in the new official
forecast has been expanded to the northeast based on recent ASCAT
wind data. Although the core of strongest winds are forecast to
remain offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico, only a slight
deviation to the right of track and/or strong localized funneling
effects would bring hurricane-force winds onshore. As a result,
the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch from Punta
San Telmo to Playa Perula.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 15.2N 100.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 16.5N 102.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 18.5N 105.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 20.3N 107.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 21.6N 110.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-08-07 09:16

WTPZ31 KNHC 060858
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ileana Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018
400 AM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018

...ILEANA GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE BY TUESDAY...
...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 100.3W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch from Punta
San Telmo to Playa Perula. A Tropical Storm Watch has also been
issued for the southern tip of Baja California Sur from Los Barilles
to Todo Santos, including Cabo San Lucas.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Los Barilles to Todo Santos Mexico

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.
A watch is issued before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was
located by the Acapulco radar near latitude 15.2 North, longitude
100.3 West. Ileana is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28
km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue into
Wednesday. On the forecast track, Ileana's center is forecast to
move parallel to and just offshore of the coast of southwestern
Mexico through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the
next day or so, and Ileana is forecast to become a hurricane by
Tuesday morning. Gradual weakening is expected to begin Tuesday
night, and Ileana is forecast to dissipate by Wednesday afternoon
or evening due to its proximity to much-larger Tropical Storm John
located to its west.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area tonight
and early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the
warning area late today through early Tuesday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area over southern Baja
California Sur Wednesday morning.

RAINFALL: Ileana is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of
Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 6 inches through Tuesday night. These rains may
cause flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will be affecting portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-08-07 09:16

WTPZ21 KNHC 060858 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018
0900 UTC MON AUG 06 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM PUNTA
SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM LOS BARILLES
TO TODO SANTOS...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... LOS BARILLES TO TODO SANTOS MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A WATCH IS ISSUED BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 100.3W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

2018-08-07 09:16

WTPZ21 KNHC 060858
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018
0900 UTC MON AUG 06 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM PUNTA
SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM LOS BARILLES
TO TODO SANTOS...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LOS BARILLES TO TODO SANTOS MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A WATCH IS ISSUED BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 100.3W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 100.3W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 99.7W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 16.5N 102.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.5N 105.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.3N 107.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.6N 110.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 100.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

2018-08-06 08:31

WTPZ61 KNHC 052239
TCUEP1

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018
540 PM CDT SUN AUG 05 2018

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WILL BE ISSUED AT
700 PM CDT (0000 UTC).

..
FORECASTER BERG

2018-08-06 08:31

WTPZ41 KNHC 060251 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018
1000 PM CDT SUN AUG 05 2018

A NEW BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
BEGINNING AROUND 2200 UTC. A SECOND ASCAT PASS EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWED WINDS OF 40-45 KT, WHILE SATCON ESTIMATES FROM
UW-CIMSS WERE A LITTLE ABOVE 50 KT. GIVEN THESE DATA, ILEANA'S
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KT. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
BE ON THE ORDER OF 15 KT, WHICH IS NOT THE MOST IDEAL ENVIRONMENT
FOR STRENGTHENING, BUT THE CYCLONE WILL ALSO BE MOVING OVER VERY
WARM WATERS OF 30-31 DEGREES CELSIUS AND THROUGH A MOISTURE-LADEN
ENVIRONMENT. NEARLY ALL OF THE INTENSITY MODELS INDICATE ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING, WITH SOME, SUCH AS THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS,
BRINGING ILEANA NEAR OR TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A DAY OR SO. ON
THE FLIP SIDE, THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE ILEANA OPENING UP INTO A
TROUGH ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN IN 36-48 HOURS.
GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SCENARIOS, THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS INCREASED ONLY A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A
48-HOUR FORECAST IS STILL PROVIDED FOR CONTINUITY, BUT IF THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE RIGHT, THE CYCLONE COULD DISSIPATE BY THAT TIME.

ILEANA IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION OF 290/11 KT. ADDITIONAL ACCELERATION WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES BETWEEN TROPICAL STORM JOHN AND LARGE-SCALE RIDGING
OVER MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY RIGHT ALONG THE PROJECTION FROM THE PREVIOUS

2018-08-06 08:31

WTPZ41 KNHC 060251
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018
1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018

A new burst of deep convection developed near the low-level center
beginning around 2200 UTC. A second ASCAT pass earlier this
afternoon showed winds of 40-45 kt, while SATCON estimates from
UW-CIMSS were a little above 50 kt. Given these data, Ileana's
maximum winds are estimated to be 45 kt. The shear is forecast to
be on the order of 15 kt, which is not the most ideal environment
for strengthening, but the cyclone will also be moving over very
warm waters of 30-31 degrees Celsius and through a moisture-laden
environment. Nearly all of the intensity models indicate additional
strengthening, with some, such as the SHIPS and LGEM models,
bringing Ileana near or to hurricane strength in a day or so. On
the flip side, the GFS and ECMWF have Ileana opening up into a
trough on the northern side of Tropical Storm John in 36-48 hours.
Given the large spread in model scenarios, the updated NHC intensity
forecast is increased only a little from the previous advisory. A
48-hour forecast is still provided for continuity, but if the GFS
and ECMWF are right, the cyclone could dissipate by that time.

Ileana is moving a little faster toward the west-northwest with an
initial motion of 290/11 kt. Additional acceleration with a turn
toward the northwest is expected over the next day or so as the
cyclone moves between Tropical Storm John and large-scale ridging
over Mexico and the southern United States. The updated NHC track
forecast is essentially right along the projection from the previous
advisory, but it is a little faster to account for the speedier GFS,
ECMWF, and HCCA solutions.

The forecast tropical-storm-force wind radii in the new official
forecast now graze the coast of southwestern Mexico, and as a
result, the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning from Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes. Even though
Ileana is forecast to dissipate after 48 hours, it is not out of
the question that the cyclone could last a little longer, and
interests on the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor
the progress of the storm.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 14.3N 99.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 15.3N 101.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 17.2N 103.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 19.1N 106.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 20.9N 108.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-08-06 08:31

WTPZ41 KNHC 052034 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018
400 PM CDT SUN AUG 05 2018

THE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY, WITH A
FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL SHAPE ON GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY. DATA FROM A
RECENT ASCAT OVERPASS SHOWED THAT THE CENTER WAS EMBEDDED ABOUT IN
THE MIDDLE OF A SMALL CDO-LIKE FEATURE. THE SCATTEROMETER DATA
INDICATED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 35-40 KT, AND DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM
TAFB AND SAB GAVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT AND 45 KT,
RESPECTIVELY. BLENDING THESE VARIOUS ESTIMATES YIELDS A CURRENT
INTENSITY OF ABOUT 40 KT, AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS THUS BEING
NAMED. SINCE THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE IN A WARM WATER AND LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. HOWEVER A STRENGTHENING CYCLONE IS
SITUATED NOT FAR TO THE WEST OF ILEANA. THIS LARGER SYSTEM IS
FORECAST BY THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS TO BECOME THE DOMINANT CYCLONE
IN A FEW DAYS, AND CAUSE THE TROPICAL STORM TO DISSIPATE NEAR THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LARGER CIRCULATION. THAT IS THE SCENARIO SHOWN
BY THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST.

THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE CENTER POSITION THAN THERE WAS
EARLIER TODAY, AND THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 285/9 KT. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
ILEANA IS LIKELY TO MOVE BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AND THE LARGER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO ITS WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF
THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. IT IS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST
HCCA FORECAST TRACK.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO

2018-08-06 08:31

WTPZ41 KNHC 052034
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018
400 PM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018

The cyclone has continued to become better organized today, with a
fairly symmetrical shape on geostationary imagery. Data from a
recent ASCAT overpass showed that the center was embedded about in
the middle of a small CDO-like feature. The scatterometer data
indicated maximum winds of 35-40 kt, and Dvorak classifications from
TAFB and SAB gave intensity estimates of 35 kt and 45 kt,
respectively. Blending these various estimates yields a current
intensity of about 40 kt, and the tropical cyclone is thus being
named. Since the system should be in a warm water and low shear
environment for the next couple of days, some additional
strengthening is forecast. However a strengthening cyclone is
situated not far to the west of Ileana. This larger system is
forecast by the ECMWF and GFS models to become the dominant cyclone
in a few days, and cause the tropical storm to dissipate near the
northern side of the larger circulation. That is the scenario shown
by the official intensity forecast.

There is more confidence in the center position than there was
earlier today, and the estimated initial motion is
west-northwestward or 285/9 kt. Over the next couple of days,
Ileana is likely to move between a mid-level ridge to its north and
northeast and the larger cyclonic circulation to its west and
southwest. The official track forecast is on the southern side of
the track guidance envelope. It is also very close to the latest
HCCA forecast track.

Interests along the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system, given the uncertainties
in the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 13.6N 98.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 14.5N 100.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 16.2N 102.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 17.9N 104.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 19.2N 106.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

2018-08-06 08:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 060548 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ILEANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018
100 AM CDT MON AUG 06 2018

...ILEANA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 99.7W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 99.7 WEST. ILEANA IS
MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H). AN
ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, ILEANA'S CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE PARALLEL TO AND OFFSHORE
OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THROUGH TODAY,

2018-08-06 08:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 060548
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ileana Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018
100 AM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018

...ILEANA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 99.7W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was
located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 99.7 West. Ileana is
moving faster toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). An
additional increase in forward speed with a turn toward the
northwest is expected over the next day or so. On the forecast
track, Ileana's center is forecast to move parallel to and offshore
of the coast of southwestern Mexico through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast through today,
but Ileana is forecast to dissipate by Tuesday night or Wednesday
due to its proximity to much-larger Tropical Storm John located to
its west and southwest.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area late Monday through early Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Ileana is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of
Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 6 inches through Tuesday night. These rains may
cause flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will be affecting portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-08-06 08:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 060250 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ILEANA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018
1000 PM CDT SUN AUG 05 2018

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 99.3W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 99.3 WEST. ILEANA IS
MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H). AN
ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, ILEANA'S CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE PARALLEL TO AND OFFSHORE
OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY.

2018-08-06 08:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 060250
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ileana Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018
1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 99.3W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch from
Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was
located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 99.3 West. Ileana is
moving faster toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). An
additional increase in forward speed with a turn toward the
northwest is expected over the next day or so. On the forecast
track, Ileana's center is forecast to move parallel to and offshore
of the coast of southwestern Mexico through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is forecast through Monday, but Ileana is
forecast to dissipate by Tuesday night or Wednesday due its
proximity to much-larger Tropical Storm John to its west and
southwest.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area late Monday through early Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Ileana is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of
Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 6 inches through Tuesday night. These rains may
cause flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will be affecting portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-08-06 08:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 052352 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ILEANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018
700 PM CDT SUN AUG 05 2018

...ILEANA A LITTLE STRONGER...
......................................................................
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
.....T
....TR
...TRO
..TROP
.TROPI
TROPIC
ROPICA
OPICAL
STORM
WATCH
IN
EFFECT
FOR
THE
SOUTHWESTERN
COAST
OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 98.9W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
......................................................................
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
LAZARO
CARDENAS
TO
CABO
CORRIENTES
MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 98.9 WEST. ILEANA IS

2018-08-06 08:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 052352
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ileana Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018
700 PM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018

...ILEANA A LITTLE STRONGER...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 98.9W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
48 hours.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was
located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 98.9 West. Ileana is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn to
the northwest is forecast tonight with an additional increase in
forward speed expected over the next few days. On the forecast
track, the center of Ileana should move parallel to, and offshore
of, the coast of southwestern Mexico through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected through
Monday, but the storm is forecast to dissipate by Wednesday as it
comes under the influence of a larger cyclone to its west and
southwest.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area late Monday and Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Ileana is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of
Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 6 inches through Tuesday night. These rains may
cause flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will be affecting portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-08-06 08:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 052033 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ILEANA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018
400 PM CDT SUN AUG 05 2018

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ILEANA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 98.1W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ILEANA.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 98.1 WEST. ILEANA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). A TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TONIGHT WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE
CENTER OF ILEANA SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL TO, AND OFFSHORE OF, THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY.

SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, BUT THE STORM IS FORECAST
TO DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY AS IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGER CYCLONE TO ITS WEST AND SOUTHWEST.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB (29.62 INCHES).

2018-08-06 08:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 052033
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ileana Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018
400 PM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ILEANA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 98.1W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico
should monitor the progress of Ileana.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was
located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 98.1 West. Ileana is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to
the northwest is forecast tonight with some increase in forward
speed expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the
center of Ileana should move parallel to, and offshore of, the
coast of southwestern Mexico through Tuesday.

Satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some
strengthening is expected through Monday, but the storm is forecast
to dissipate by Wednesday as it comes under the influence of a
larger cyclone to its west and southwest.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

2018-08-06 08:31

WTPZ21 KNHC 060250 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018
0300 UTC MON AUG 06 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 99.3W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 99.3W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 98.7W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.3N 101.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.2N 103.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.1N 106.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.9N 108.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

2018-08-06 08:31

WTPZ21 KNHC 060250
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018
0300 UTC MON AUG 06 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 99.3W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 99.3W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 98.7W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.3N 101.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.2N 103.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.1N 106.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.9N 108.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 99.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

2018-08-06 08:31

WTPZ21 KNHC 052033
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018
2100 UTC SUN AUG 05 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ILEANA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 98.1W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 98.1W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 97.7W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 14.5N 100.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 16.2N 102.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 17.9N 104.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.2N 106.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 98.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

..
FORECASTER PASCH

2018-08-06 08:31

WTPN32 PHNC 060400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (ILEANA) WARNING NR 006
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 13.9N 98.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 98.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 15.3N 101.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 17.2N 103.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 19.1N 106.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 20.9N 108.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060400Z POSITION NEAR 14.4N 99.5W.
TROPICAL STORM 11E (ILEANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1512 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
060000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061000Z, 061600Z, 062200Z AND
070400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10E (HECTOR) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12E (JOHN)
WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-08-06 08:31

WTPN32 PHNC 052200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (ILEANA) WARNING NR 005
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 13.4N 97.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 97.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 14.5N 100.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 16.2N 102.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 17.9N 104.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 19.2N 106.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
052200Z POSITION NEAR 13.8N 98.5W.
TROPICAL STORM 11E (ILEANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1571 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
051800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060400Z, 061000Z, 061600Z AND
062200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10E (HECTOR) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-08-06 08:16

WTPZ41 KNHC 051436 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018
1000 AM CDT SUN AUG 05 2018

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO
BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A SMALL CIRCULAR AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION, WITH A DEVELOPING BAND OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30
KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB.

SINCE THE CENTER IS STILL NOT EASY TO LOCATE, THE INITIAL MOTION IS
A RATHER UNCERTAIN 290/10 KT. THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISMS FOR
THE SYSTEM ARE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A DEVELOPING
CYCLONE TO THE WEST. IT IS NOT CLEAR JUST HOW MUCH INTERACTION
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES, AND IT IS LIKELY THAT SOME
OF THE MODEL VORTEX TRACKS ARE NOT REPRESENTATIVE IN THE 2-3 DAY
TIME FRAME. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SOMEWHAT NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE BUT NEAR THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THIS IS
CLOSE TO THE LATEST HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS APPROACH, HCCA, TRACK.

THE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODEL PREDICTIONS INDICATE THAT THE
CIRCULATION TO THE WEST OF ELEVEN-E WILL BECOME DOMINANT. IN
FACT, THE GFS INDICATES THAT THIS CIRCULATION WILL ABSORB THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN A DAY OR SO. THE ECMWF INDICATES THAT THIS
ABSORPTION WILL OCCUR SEVERAL DAYS LATER, AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CALLS FOR DISSIPATION IN 3-4 DAYS. IF THE WESTERN CIRCULATION DOES
NOT BECOME THE DOMINANT SYSTEM, THEN ELEVEN-E COULD STRENGTHEN MORE
THAN INDICATED HERE, AS SHOWN BY SOME OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE.

2018-08-06 08:16

WTPZ41 KNHC 051436
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018
1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018

Latest visible satellite images indicate that the tropical cyclone
is gradually becoming better organized. The center is estimated to
be on the northern side of a small circular area of deep
convection, with a developing band of convection over the southern
semicircle of the circulation. The initial intensity is set at 30
kt in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and
SAB.

Since the center is still not easy to locate, the initial motion is
a rather uncertain 290/10 kt. The primary steering mechanisms for
the system are a mid-level ridge to the north and a developing
cyclone to the west. It is not clear just how much interaction
will occur between the two cyclones, and it is likely that some
of the model vortex tracks are not representative in the 2-3 day
time frame. The forecast track is somewhat north of the previous
one but near the southern side of the guidance envelope. This is
close to the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach, HCCA, track.

The GFS and ECMWF global model predictions indicate that the
circulation to the west of Eleven-E will become dominant. In
fact, the GFS indicates that this circulation will absorb the
tropical cyclone within a day or so. The ECMWF indicates that this
absorption will occur several days later, and the official forecast
calls for dissipation in 3-4 days. If the western circulation does
not become the dominant system, then Eleven-E could strengthen more
than indicated here, as shown by some of the other guidance.

Interest along the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system, given the uncertainties
in the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 13.5N 97.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 14.1N 98.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 15.3N 100.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 16.9N 103.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 18.3N 106.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 20.5N 112.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

2018-08-06 08:16

WTPZ41 KNHC 050850 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018
400 AM CDT SUN AUG 05 2018

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS INCREASED THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING, BUT THE SYSTEM STILL APPEARS TO BE SHEARED FROM THE
NORTH. A PAIR OF ASCAT PASSES BETWEEN 03Z AND 04Z REVEALED THAT THE
CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS ELONGATED AND HAS REFORMED TO THE SOUTH,
CLOSER TO THE CONVECTION. THE MAXIMUM BELIEVABLE WINDS IN THE ASCAT
DATA WERE AROUND 30 KT, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT
THAT VALUE.

LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK OR INTENSITY FORECAST,
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL DYNAMICAL MODELS
ALL FORECAST THAT A DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY
AND QUICKLY BECOME THE DOMINANT CYCLONE. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE
DEPRESSION TO DISSIPATE AS IT BECOMES ENTANGLED IN THE OTHER
SYSTEM'S LARGER CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT
AMONG THE MODELS AS TO WHEN OR WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR. ON ONE HAND,
THE GFS CONTINUES TO INSIST THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL DISSIPATE LATER
THIS MORNING, WHILE THE UKMET SHOWS TWO DISTINCT CYCLONES THROUGH 96
HOURS. FURTHER COMPLICATING MATTERS, THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE TWO
CYCLONES IS AFFECTING THE TRACKERS USED TO OBTAIN TRACK AND
INTENSITY INFORMATION FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODELS, AND MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL TRACKER OUTPUT CAN NOT BE CONSIDERED REPRESENTATIVE,
ESPECIALLY AT 48 H AND BEYOND.

ASSUMING THE DEPRESSION PERSISTS FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE DAYS,
THE ECMWF AND HWRF MODELS APPEAR TO BE THE BEST COMPROMISE
SOLUTIONS, WITH BOTH SHOWING THE DEPRESSION ACCELERATING

2018-08-06 08:16

WTPZ41 KNHC 050850
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018
400 AM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018

Convection associated with the depression has increased through the
early morning, but the system still appears to be sheared from the
north. A pair of ASCAT passes between 03Z and 04Z revealed that the
center of the depression is elongated and has reformed to the south,
closer to the convection. The maximum believable winds in the ASCAT
data were around 30 kt, and the initial intensity has been set at
that value.

Little change has been made to the track or intensity forecast,
however confidence is low. The global and regional dynamical models
all forecast that a disturbance to the west will develop later today
and quickly become the dominant cyclone. This should cause the
depression to dissipate as it becomes entangled in the other
system's larger circulation. However, there is little agreement
among the models as to when or where this will occur. On one hand,
the GFS continues to insist that the depression will dissipate later
this morning, while the UKMET shows two distinct cyclones through 96
hours. Further complicating matters, the close proximity of the two
cyclones is affecting the trackers used to obtain track and
intensity information from the dynamical models, and most of the
dynamical tracker output can not be considered representative,
especially at 48 h and beyond.

Assuming the depression persists for at least a couple more days,
the ECMWF and HWRF models appear to be the best compromise
solutions, with both showing the depression accelerating
northwestward between the disturbance to the west and a mid-level
ridge to the east, before dissipating in 48-72 h. The NHC track
forecast therefore leans most heavily on a blend of these models
and the previous forecast track. The intensity forecast is based
primarily on the statistical models, since the dynamical tracker
output appears to be unrepresentative of the actual forecasts.
Although the official forecast conservatively maintains the
depression for 72 h, the cyclone could dissipate much sooner than
currently indicated.

Based on the forecast, any tropical-storm-force winds are expected
to remain offshore the coast of Mexico. However, given the low
confidence in both the track and intensity of the depression,
interests along the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico should
monitor its progress in case the track shifts closer to the coast or
the cyclone strengthens and grows larger than forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 13.0N 96.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 13.5N 98.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 14.6N 100.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 16.0N 103.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 17.5N 105.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 20.0N 111.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-08-06 08:16

WTPZ31 KNHC 051436
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018
1000 AM CDT SUN AUG 05 2018

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 97.3W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM S OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 97.3 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19
KM/H). THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BUT AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO, BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE OF, THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 PM CDT.

....
FORECASTER PASCH

2018-08-06 08:16

WTPZ31 KNHC 050850
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018
400 AM CDT SUN AUG 05 2018

...DEPRESSION A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 96.9W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM S OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 96.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19
KM/H). THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BUT AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 AM CDT.

....
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-08-06 08:16

WTPZ21 KNHC 051435
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018
1500 UTC SUN AUG 05 2018

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 97.3W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 97.3W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 96.8W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 14.1N 98.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.3N 100.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.9N 103.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 18.3N 106.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 20.5N 112.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 97.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

..
FORECASTER PASCH

2018-08-06 08:16

WTPZ21 KNHC 050849
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018
0900 UTC SUN AUG 05 2018

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 96.9W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 96.9W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 96.4W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 13.5N 98.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 14.6N 100.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 16.0N 103.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 17.5N 105.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.0N 111.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 96.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-08-06 08:12

WTPZ41 KNHC 050238 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018
1000 PM CDT SAT AUG 04 2018

AFTER HAVING A SOMEWHAT IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE PRESENTATION EARLIER
TODAY, THE FINAL GOES-16 VISIBLE IMAGES SHOWED WHAT APPEARED TO BE
THE CYCLONE'S LOW-LEVEL CENTER POPPING OUT FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY. SINCE THAT TIME, THE REMAINING
CONVECTION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED,
APPARENTLY DUE TO ENHANCED WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A LINEAR BAND
OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE.

THIS STRUCTURAL DEGRADATION OF THE SYSTEM FURTHER COMPLICATES WHAT
WAS ALREADY A LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST DUE TO THE DEPRESSION
INTERACTING WITH THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM LOCATED TO ITS WEST. THE 18Z
GFS DOESN'T HAVE MUCH OF A REPRESENTATION OF THE DEPRESSION, AND IT
IS QUICKLY LOST IN THE MODEL INTEGRATION. THE LATEST HWRF FIELDS
SHOW THE VORTEX BEING ABSORBED INTO THE CIRCULATION OF THE
DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST AFTER 24 HOURS, AND THE HMON SHOWS THE
SYSTEM DISSIPATING IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE 12Z
RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND UKMET MAINTAIN THE DEPRESSION INTO DAYS 4 AND
5, RESPECTIVELY. IN AN EFFORT TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WHILE ACKNOWLEDGING THE CURRENT TRENDS, THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST STILL SHOWS SOME STRENGTHENING BUT AT A SLOWER
RATE GIVEN THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE WINNING OUT SO
FAR OVER THE WARM SSTS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CARRIES THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE THROUGH 72 HOURS WITH DISSIPATION SHOWN AT DAY 4, BUT IT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF THE CYCLONE DISSIPATED MUCH SOONER THAN

2018-08-06 08:12

WTPZ41 KNHC 050238
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018
1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 04 2018

After having a somewhat impressive satellite presentation earlier
today, the final GOES-16 visible images showed what appeared to be
the cyclone's low-level center popping out from the northwestern
edge of the convective canopy. Since that time, the remaining
convection south and east of the center has become less organized,
apparently due to enhanced wind shear associated with a linear band
of convection to the northwest of the cyclone.

This structural degradation of the system further complicates what
was already a low-confidence forecast due to the depression
interacting with the developing system located to its west. The 18Z
GFS doesn't have much of a representation of the depression, and it
is quickly lost in the model integration. The latest HWRF fields
show the vortex being absorbed into the circulation of the
disturbance to the west after 24 hours, and the HMON shows the
system dissipating in 2 to 3 days. On the other hand, the 12Z
runs of the ECMWF and UKMET maintain the depression into days 4 and
5, respectively. In an effort to maintain some continuity with the
previous forecast while acknowledging the current trends, the new
intensity forecast still shows some strengthening but at a slower
rate given that the upper-level winds appear to be winning out so
far over the warm SSTs. The official forecast carries the tropical
cyclone through 72 hours with dissipation shown at day 4, but it
would not be surprising if the cyclone dissipated much sooner than
indicated here.

The initial motion estimate is a somewhat more confident 295/10
given that the center was exposed right around 00Z. The track
forecast reasoning has not changed, as the small cyclone should be
steered west-northwestward by a large ridge to its north and the
aforementioned disturbance to the west, which the model guidance
suggests will strengthen quickly during the next couple of days.
The new NHC forecast is a bit to the right of the previous one and
is close to a blend of the ECMWF and UKMET models.

Based on the forecast, any tropical-storm-force winds are expected
to remain offshore the coast of Mexico. However, given the low
confidence in both the track and intensity of the depression,
interests along the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico should
monitor its progress in case the track shifts closer to the coast or
the cyclone strengthens and grows larger than forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 13.0N 95.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 13.4N 97.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 14.2N 99.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 15.1N 101.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 16.3N 103.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 19.0N 109.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

2018-08-06 08:12

WTPZ41 KNHC 042034 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018
400 PM CDT SAT AUG 04 2018

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PACIFIC HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER ORGANIZED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH THE FORMATION OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW
PRESSURE CENTER AND DEEP CONVECTION ORGANIZED IN A DISTINCT CURVED
BAND. BASED ON THESE CRITERIA, THE SYSTEM IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT IN
ACCORDANCE WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.

BECAUSE THE SYSTEM HAS CONGEALED SO QUICKLY, THE INITIAL MOTION IS
UNCERTAIN BUT ESTIMATED TO BE 285/11 KT. THE CYCLONE'S FUTURE
MOTION WILL ULTIMATELY BE DICTATED BY A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE TO ITS NORTH AND ITS PROXIMITY TO ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LOCATED
ABOUT 450 N MI TO THE WEST. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A
NEARLY CONSTANT SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS DUE TO
THE RIDGE. AFTER THAT TIME, THE CYCLONE COULD BEGIN TO SLINGSHOT
AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LARGER WEATHER SYSTEM TO ITS WEST.
MANY OF THE TRACK MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE DEPRESSION VERY WELL.
THE GFS BARELY DEPICTS A SURFACE LOW FROM THE GET-GO, AND THE HWRF
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ACCOUNTING SUFFICIENTLY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
BINARY INTERACTION. AS A RESULT, THE NHC OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
MATCHES THE CONSENSUS OF THE ECMWF AND UKMET, THE ONLY TWO MODELS
WHICH APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT GRASP ON THE SITUATION.

ALTHOUGH THE DEPRESSION WILL BE MOVING OVER VERY WARM WATERS OF
29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS, THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND

2018-08-06 08:12

WTPZ41 KNHC 042034
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018
400 PM CDT Sat Aug 04 2018

Satellite images indicate that the disturbance located over the far
eastern Pacific has become significantly better organized
throughout the day, with the formation of a well-defined low
pressure center and deep convection organized in a distinct curved
band. Based on these criteria, the system is being designated as a
tropical depression, and the initial intensity is set at 25 kt in
accordance with Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.

Because the system has congealed so quickly, the initial motion is
uncertain but estimated to be 285/11 kt. The cyclone's future
motion will ultimately be dictated by a large mid-tropospheric
ridge to its north and its proximity to another disturbance located
about 450 n mi to the west. A west-northwestward motion at a
nearly constant speed is expected during the next 2-3 days due to
the ridge. After that time, the cyclone could begin to slingshot
around the northern side of the larger weather system to its west.
Many of the track models are not handling the depression very well;
the GFS barely depicts a surface low from the get-go, and the HWRF
does not appear to be accounting sufficiently for the possibility of
binary interaction. As a result, the NHC official track forecast
matches the consensus of the ECMWF and UKMET, the only two models
which appear to have a decent grasp on the situation.

Although the depression will be moving over very warm waters of
29-30 degrees Celsius over the next 2-3 days, the upper-level wind
environment may not be ideal due to possible outflow from the larger
disturbance to the west. As a result, the official intensity
forecast is not too aggressive and is essentially close to the ICON
intensity consensus. Even though the ECMWF and UKMET were used for
the track forecast, the two models disagree on the cyclone's
ultimate demise. The ECMWF has the system absorbed by the other
disturbance by day 4, while the UKMET keeps it distinct and holds it
just beyond the forecast period. As a compromise, the official
forecast shows dissipation or absorption by day 5, but the
confidence in this forecast is low.

Based on the forecast, tropical-storm-force winds are expected to
remain offshore the coast of Mexico. However, only a slight
deviation in the forecast track or an increase in size could bring
those winds closer to the coast, and interests along the southern
and southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of the
depression.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 12.4N 95.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 12.9N 96.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 13.6N 98.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 14.3N 100.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 15.3N 102.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 18.3N 107.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 20.0N 114.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-08-06 08:12

WTPZ31 KNHC 050237
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018
1000 PM CDT SAT AUG 04 2018

...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 95.9W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 95.9 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19
KM/H) AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO TO
THREE DAYS, WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FORECAST BY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH (45 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND THE
DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB (29.77 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 AM CDT.

....
FORECASTER BRENNAN

2018-08-06 08:12

WTPZ31 KNHC 042034
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018
400 PM CDT SAT AUG 04 2018

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 95.0W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 95.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH (20
KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FORECAST BY MONDAY
OR TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH (45 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB (29.77 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 PM CDT.

....
FORECASTER BERG

2018-08-06 08:12

WTPZ21 KNHC 050237
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018
0300 UTC SUN AUG 05 2018

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 95.9W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 95.9W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 95.5W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 13.4N 97.3W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 14.2N 99.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.1N 101.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.3N 103.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.0N 109.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 95.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

..
FORECASTER BRENNAN

2018-08-06 08:12

WTPZ21 KNHC 042033
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112018
2100 UTC SAT AUG 04 2018

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 95.0W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 95.0W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 94.6W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 12.9N 96.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 13.6N 98.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 14.3N 100.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.3N 102.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.3N 107.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 20.0N 114.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 95.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

..
FORECASTER BERG