Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for THIRTEEN-E-18
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones (WT) or Tsunami (WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present. The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

2018-08-11 18:31

WTNT82 EGRR 111605

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 11.08.2018

HURRICANE HECTOR ANALYSED POSITION : 18.7N 169.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.08.2018 0 18.7N 169.9W 987 57
0000UTC 12.08.2018 12 20.0N 171.6W 992 51
1200UTC 12.08.2018 24 21.5N 173.9W 998 43
0000UTC 13.08.2018 36 23.0N 176.5W 1003 35
1200UTC 13.08.2018 48 24.5N 179.5W 1006 34
0000UTC 14.08.2018 60 25.6N 177.4E 1009 33
1200UTC 14.08.2018 72 26.9N 173.9E 1010 36
0000UTC 15.08.2018 84 28.3N 170.2E 1004 49
1200UTC 15.08.2018 96 29.8N 166.9E 1003 44
0000UTC 16.08.2018 108 31.4N 164.3E 1007 34
1200UTC 16.08.2018 120 33.2N 162.7E 1010 28
0000UTC 17.08.2018 132 35.2N 161.8E 1011 25
1200UTC 17.08.2018 144 37.6N 161.7E 1012 25

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY ANALYSED POSITION : 21.0N 131.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.08.2018 0 21.0N 131.0W 1001 35
0000UTC 12.08.2018 12 21.2N 131.5W 1005 29
1200UTC 12.08.2018 24 21.4N 131.9W 1007 26
0000UTC 13.08.2018 36 21.7N 132.7W 1008 23
1200UTC 13.08.2018 48 21.8N 134.3W 1010 23
0000UTC 14.08.2018 60 21.8N 135.7W 1011 21
1200UTC 14.08.2018 72 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 38.9N 50.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.08.2018 108 38.9N 50.1W 1010 30
1200UTC 16.08.2018 120 39.6N 47.8W 1011 33
0000UTC 17.08.2018 132 40.6N 44.3W 1012 34
1200UTC 17.08.2018 144 41.6N 40.4W 1011 35

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 13.6N 120.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.08.2018 120 13.6N 120.7W 1004 35
0000UTC 17.08.2018 132 13.9N 122.6W 1003 36
1200UTC 17.08.2018 144 15.0N 124.2W 1003 36


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 111605

2018-08-11 18:31

WTNT80 EGRR 111605

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 11.08.2018

HURRICANE HECTOR ANALYSED POSITION : 18.7N 169.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 11.08.2018 18.7N 169.9W MODERATE
00UTC 12.08.2018 20.0N 171.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.08.2018 21.5N 173.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.08.2018 23.0N 176.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.08.2018 24.5N 179.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.08.2018 25.6N 177.4E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.08.2018 26.9N 173.9E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.08.2018 28.3N 170.2E WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.08.2018 29.8N 166.9E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.08.2018 31.4N 164.3E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.08.2018 33.2N 162.7E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.08.2018 35.2N 161.8E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.08.2018 37.6N 161.7E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY ANALYSED POSITION : 21.0N 131.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 11.08.2018 21.0N 131.0W WEAK
00UTC 12.08.2018 21.2N 131.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.08.2018 21.4N 131.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.08.2018 21.7N 132.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.08.2018 21.8N 134.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.08.2018 21.8N 135.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.08.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 38.9N 50.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 16.08.2018 38.9N 50.1W WEAK
12UTC 16.08.2018 39.6N 47.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.08.2018 40.6N 44.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.08.2018 41.6N 40.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 13.6N 120.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 16.08.2018 13.6N 120.7W WEAK
00UTC 17.08.2018 13.9N 122.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.08.2018 15.0N 124.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 111605

2018-08-11 17:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 111433
TCDEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 11 2018

COLD WATERS AND WIND SHEAR HAVE TAKEN A TOLL ON KRISTY. THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS DEGENERATED CONSIDERABLY, AND IT NOW CONSISTS OF A
TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH SOME PATCHES OF MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 30 KT WITH
SOME ISOLATED SPOTS OF HIGHER GUSTS. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE OVER
COLD WATERS, AND ALTHOUGH REGENERATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, SOME
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS COULD STILL DEVELOP BEFORE DISSIPATION OCCURS
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

SINCE THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS A SHALLOW SYSTEM, IT IS NOW BEING
STEERED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 4 KT BY THE
LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE WEST IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY NHC ON THIS SYSTEM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 21.4N 131.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 12/0000Z 21.8N 131.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 12/1200Z 22.0N 132.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 13/0000Z 22.0N 133.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 13/1200Z 22.5N 134.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-08-11 17:31

WTPZ33 KNHC 111432
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KRISTY ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 11 2018

...KRISTY DEGENERATES INTO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 131.0W
ABOUT 1350 MI...2175 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KRISTY
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 131.0 WEST. THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH
(7 KM/H), AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN COUPLE OF
DAYS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB (29.62 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE, UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC, AND
ON THE WEB AT HTTPS://OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.SHTML.

..
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-08-11 17:31

WTPZ23 KNHC 111432
TCMEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
1500 UTC SAT AUG 11 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 131.0W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 131.0W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 130.8W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.8N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 22.0N 132.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 22.0N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 22.5N 134.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 131.0W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.


..
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-08-11 11:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 110841
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 11 2018

KRISTY HAS WEAKENED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WITH THE CENTRAL CONVECTION
BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED. A RECENT ASCAT OVERPASS INDICATES THAT
THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 KT, AND THAT THE 34-KT
WIND RADII ARE SMALLER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED. KRISTY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THUS, CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WITH THE
SYSTEM NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36 H OR LESS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 345/6. AS KRISTY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN, THE
CYCLONE SHOULD MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS IT BECOMES
SHALLOWER AND THEREFORE STEERED BY THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW AROUND
RIDGING TO THE NORTH. THEN, AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES A REMNANT LOW, A
TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED, WITH THIS MOTION PERSISTING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEW TRACK
FORECAST, WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK, LIES NEAR THE
VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 21.0N 130.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 21.6N 130.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 22.0N 131.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 22.2N 132.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 13/0600Z 22.5N 133.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/0600Z 23.5N 136.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 15/0600Z 24.5N 139.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 16/0600Z 25.5N 142.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

..
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-08-11 11:31

WTPZ33 KNHC 110837
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 11 2018

...KRISTY NOW WEAKENING MORE RAPIDLY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 130.4W
ABOUT 1320 MI...2120 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 130.4 WEST. KRISTY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED LATER
TODAY, AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.

SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND KRISTY IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB (29.50 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

...
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-08-11 11:31

WTPZ23 KNHC 110837
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
0900 UTC SAT AUG 11 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 130.4W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 130.4W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 130.3W

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 21.6N 130.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 22.0N 131.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 22.2N 132.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.5N 133.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 23.5N 136.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 24.5N 139.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 25.5N 142.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 130.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z

..
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-08-11 06:31

WTNT82 EGRR 110410

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 11.08.2018

HURRICANE HECTOR ANALYSED POSITION : 18.1N 167.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 11.08.2018 0 18.1N 167.7W 984 58
1200UTC 11.08.2018 12 18.9N 169.7W 985 58
0000UTC 12.08.2018 24 20.3N 171.4W 991 52
1200UTC 12.08.2018 36 21.8N 173.9W 997 46
0000UTC 13.08.2018 48 23.2N 176.5W 1002 39
1200UTC 13.08.2018 60 24.4N 179.5W 1005 37
0000UTC 14.08.2018 72 25.5N 177.6E 1008 34
1200UTC 14.08.2018 84 26.7N 174.1E 1008 37
0000UTC 15.08.2018 96 27.9N 170.4E 1002 48
1200UTC 15.08.2018 108 29.1N 167.0E 1002 45
0000UTC 16.08.2018 120 30.7N 164.4E 1004 40
1200UTC 16.08.2018 132 32.4N 162.6E 1007 31
0000UTC 17.08.2018 144 34.4N 161.6E 1008 30

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY ANALYSED POSITION : 20.1N 130.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 11.08.2018 0 20.1N 130.0W 992 46
1200UTC 11.08.2018 12 20.8N 130.3W 998 41
0000UTC 12.08.2018 24 21.3N 131.0W 1001 35
1200UTC 12.08.2018 36 21.4N 131.7W 1004 32
0000UTC 13.08.2018 48 21.3N 132.7W 1006 29
1200UTC 13.08.2018 60 21.3N 134.3W 1008 27
0000UTC 14.08.2018 72 21.4N 135.9W 1010 24
1200UTC 14.08.2018 84 21.7N 138.0W 1011 22
0000UTC 15.08.2018 96 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 33.6N 49.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.08.2018 108 34.6N 48.9W 1014 31
0000UTC 16.08.2018 120 39.4N 49.2W 1014 39
1200UTC 16.08.2018 132 40.6N 48.0W 1014 28
0000UTC 17.08.2018 144 41.9N 45.2W 1014 29

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 13.3N 118.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.08.2018 132 13.6N 119.5W 1005 27
0000UTC 17.08.2018 144 14.4N 122.1W 1003 30


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 110410

2018-08-11 06:31

WTNT80 EGRR 110410

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 11.08.2018

HURRICANE HECTOR ANALYSED POSITION : 18.1N 167.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 11.08.2018 18.1N 167.7W MODERATE
12UTC 11.08.2018 18.9N 169.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.08.2018 20.3N 171.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.08.2018 21.8N 173.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.08.2018 23.2N 176.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.08.2018 24.4N 179.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.08.2018 25.5N 177.6E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.08.2018 26.7N 174.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.08.2018 27.9N 170.4E WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.08.2018 29.1N 167.0E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.08.2018 30.7N 164.4E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.08.2018 32.4N 162.6E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.08.2018 34.4N 161.6E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY ANALYSED POSITION : 20.1N 130.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 11.08.2018 20.1N 130.0W MODERATE
12UTC 11.08.2018 20.8N 130.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.08.2018 21.3N 131.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.08.2018 21.4N 131.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.08.2018 21.3N 132.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.08.2018 21.3N 134.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.08.2018 21.4N 135.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.08.2018 21.7N 138.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.08.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 33.6N 49.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.08.2018 34.6N 48.9W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 16.08.2018 39.4N 49.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.08.2018 40.6N 48.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.08.2018 41.9N 45.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 13.3N 118.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 16.08.2018 13.6N 119.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.08.2018 14.4N 122.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 110410

2018-08-11 05:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 110237 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 10 2018

KRISTY APPEARS TO HAVE BEGUN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND AS IT IS NOW
PASSING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SSTS. CONVECTION HAS BECOME
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT, LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO
SOME MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR, AS ANALYZED BY UW-CIMSS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 55 KT, AND IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME AS IN THE RECENT
FORECASTS. KRISTY WILL MOVE OVER SSTS OF 23-25 DEGREES C OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY EVENING, KRISTY IS EXPECTED TO
LOSE ANY REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW.

KRISTY IS MOVING JUST WEST OF DUE NORTH, WITH AN INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 355/8 KT. DURING THE WEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, KRISTY SHOULD MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
AS IT BECOMES SHALLOWER AND THEREFORE STEERED BY THE LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL FLOW AROUND RIDGING TO THE NORTH. AS THE SYSTEM LOSES ITS
CONVECTION AND BECOMES A REMNANT LOW, A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
IS EXPECTED. THIS MOTION WILL THEN CONTINUE UNTIL THE REMNANT LOW
DISSIPATES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO, AND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, FOLLOWING THE
TRENDS IN THE LATEST CONSENSUS MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 20.5N 130.1W 55 KT 65 MPH

2018-08-11 05:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 110237
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018
800 PM PDT Fri Aug 10 2018

Kristy appears to have begun a slow weakening trend as it is now
passing over progressively cooler SSTs. Convection has become
confined mainly to the northeastern quadrant, likely in response to
some moderate west-southwesterly shear, as analyzed by UW-CIMSS.
The initial intensity has been lowered to 55 kt, and is in
agreement with the current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.
The intensity forecast philosophy remains the same as in the recent
forecasts. Kristy will move over SSTs of 23-25 degrees C over the
next couple of days, and steady weakening is expected to occur
tonight through Sunday. By Sunday evening, Kristy is expected to
lose any remaining deep convection and become a remnant low.

Kristy is moving just west of due north, with an initial motion
estimate of 355/8 kt. During the weakening trend over the next
couple of days, Kristy should make a gradual turn to the northwest
as it becomes shallower and therefore steered by the low- to mid-
level flow around ridging to the north. As the system loses its
convection and becomes a remnant low, a turn to the west-northwest
is expected. This motion will then continue until the remnant low
dissipates by the middle of the week. The track guidance is in good
agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track forecast has been
shifted slightly to the left of the previous forecast, following the
trends in the latest consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 20.5N 130.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 21.1N 130.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 21.7N 130.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 22.0N 131.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 22.3N 132.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/0000Z 23.0N 134.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 15/0000Z 23.6N 137.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 16/0000Z 24.4N 140.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg/Latto

2018-08-11 05:31

WTPZ33 KNHC 110236
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 10 2018

...KRISTY BEGINNING TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 130.1W
ABOUT 1305 MI...2100 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 130.1 WEST. KRISTY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). A GRADUAL SLOWING OF
THE FORWARD MOTION AND A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. KRISTY IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
AND KRISTY IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY SUNDAY EVENING.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES (150 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB (29.39 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

...
FORECASTER BERG/LATTO

2018-08-11 05:31

WTPZ23 KNHC 110235
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
0300 UTC SAT AUG 11 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 130.1W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 30SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 130.1W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 130.0W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.1N 130.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.7N 130.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 22.0N 131.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 22.3N 132.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 23.0N 134.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 23.6N 137.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 24.4N 140.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 130.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

..
FORECASTER BERG/LATTO

2018-08-10 23:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 102041 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 10 2018

IT LOOKS LIKE KRISTY MAY HAVE PEAKED IN INTENSITY. THE CLOUD TOPS
OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAVE WARMED SINCE 6 HOURS AGO, AND ANY
HINTS OF AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE IN VISIBLE IMAGERY HAVE DISAPPEARED.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 60 KT AS A COMPROMISE OF ALL
AVAILABLE SATELLITE ESTIMATES, WHICH STILL VARY WIDELY. KRISTY HAS
CROSSED THE 26 C SST ISOTHERM, AND STEADY WEAKENING FROM THIS POINT
IS LIKELY AS THE TROPICAL STORM MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER
WATERS. ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS SOLUTION, AND
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS HIGH. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE THAT CYCLONE WILL LOSE ALL DEEP CONVECTION BY SUNDAY AND
BECOME A REMNANT LOW.

KRISTY IS MOVING DUE NORTH, AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
360/7 KT. KRISTY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO WHILE IT MAINTAINS AT LEAST SOME DEEP
CONVECTION. BEGINNING DAY 2, A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST, AND
EVENTUALLY WEST, WILL BEGIN AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES INCREASINGLY
STEERED BY LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH. THE GUIDANCE,
ESPECIALLY THE GFS, HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWESTWARD AGAIN, BUT IS AT
LEAST IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT THAN IT WAS PREVIOUSLY. THE NHC
FORECAST HAS LIKEWISE BEEN SHIFTED SUBSTANTIALLY TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND REMAINS VERY CLOSE
TO HCCA AND TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 19.6N 129.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 20.5N 130.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 21.2N 130.3W 40 KT 45 MPH

2018-08-10 23:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 102041
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018
200 PM PDT Fri Aug 10 2018

It looks like Kristy may have peaked in intensity. The cloud tops
of the central dense overcast have warmed since 6 hours ago, and any
hints of an eye-like feature in visible imagery have disappeared.
The initial intensity has been held at 60 kt as a compromise of all
available satellite estimates, which still vary widely. Kristy has
crossed the 26 C SST isotherm, and steady weakening from this point
is likely as the tropical storm moves over progressively colder
waters. All of the intensity guidance agrees on this solution, and
confidence in the forecast is high. The dynamical models generally
agree that cyclone will lose all deep convection by Sunday and
become a remnant low.

Kristy is moving due north, and the initial motion estimate is
360/7 kt. Kristy should continue to move generally northward for the
next 24 hours or so while it maintains at least some deep
convection. Beginning day 2, a turn toward the northwest, and
eventually west, will begin as the cyclone becomes increasingly
steered by low-level easterly flow to the north. The guidance,
especially the GFS, has shifted southwestward again, but is at
least in a little better agreement than it was previously. The NHC
forecast has likewise been shifted substantially toward the
southwest by the end of the forecast period, and remains very close
to HCCA and TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 19.6N 129.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 20.5N 130.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 21.2N 130.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 21.6N 130.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 22.0N 131.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/1800Z 22.8N 133.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/1800Z 23.5N 136.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/1800Z 24.0N 138.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-08-10 23:31

WTPZ33 KNHC 102040
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 10 2018

...KRISTY FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 129.9W
ABOUT 1305 MI...2100 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 129.9 WEST. KRISTY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H). A GENERAL NORTHWARD
MOTION AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
KRISTY IS THEN FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
AND KRISTY IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES (150 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB (29.27 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

...
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-08-10 23:31

WTPZ23 KNHC 102040 RRA
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
2100 UTC FRI AUG 10 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 129.9W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 75SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 129.9W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 129.9W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.5N 130.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 21.2N 130.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.6N 130.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 22.0N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 22.8N 133.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 23.5N 136.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 24.0N 138.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

2018-08-10 23:31

WTPZ23 KNHC 102040
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
2100 UTC FRI AUG 10 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 129.9W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 75SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 129.9W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 129.9W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.5N 130.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 21.2N 130.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.6N 130.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 22.0N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 22.8N 133.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 23.5N 136.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 24.0N 138.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 129.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-08-10 18:31

WTNT82 EGRR 101606

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 10.08.2018

HURRICANE HECTOR ANALYSED POSITION : 17.4N 165.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.08.2018 0 17.4N 165.0W 986 55
0000UTC 11.08.2018 12 18.1N 167.6W 984 59
1200UTC 11.08.2018 24 19.0N 169.6W 982 62
0000UTC 12.08.2018 36 20.6N 171.3W 988 52
1200UTC 12.08.2018 48 22.8N 173.6W 994 55
0000UTC 13.08.2018 60 24.4N 176.5W 1001 41
1200UTC 13.08.2018 72 25.6N 179.4W 1005 36
0000UTC 14.08.2018 84 27.0N 177.6E 1008 34
1200UTC 14.08.2018 96 28.1N 174.1E 1008 37
0000UTC 15.08.2018 108 29.3N 171.0E 1005 45
1200UTC 15.08.2018 120 30.5N 168.0E 1005 40
0000UTC 16.08.2018 132 31.6N 165.6E 1006 35
1200UTC 16.08.2018 144 32.5N 164.2E 1008 30

TROPICAL STORM JOHN ANALYSED POSITION : 26.4N 120.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.08.2018 0 26.4N 120.3W 1001 30
0000UTC 11.08.2018 12 27.6N 122.1W 1004 24
1200UTC 11.08.2018 24 27.8N 123.7W 1007 21
0000UTC 12.08.2018 36 28.0N 124.6W 1008 21
1200UTC 12.08.2018 48 28.1N 124.8W 1011 19
0000UTC 13.08.2018 60 28.1N 124.4W 1012 21
1200UTC 13.08.2018 72 28.3N 123.0W 1014 17
0000UTC 14.08.2018 84 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY ANALYSED POSITION : 18.6N 129.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.08.2018 0 18.6N 129.8W 987 50
0000UTC 11.08.2018 12 20.2N 129.9W 991 47
1200UTC 11.08.2018 24 20.9N 130.4W 995 45
0000UTC 12.08.2018 36 21.1N 131.1W 998 42
1200UTC 12.08.2018 48 21.2N 132.0W 1001 37
0000UTC 13.08.2018 60 21.0N 133.2W 1004 33
1200UTC 13.08.2018 72 21.0N 135.0W 1007 30
0000UTC 14.08.2018 84 21.2N 136.7W 1009 26
1200UTC 14.08.2018 96 21.6N 139.0W 1011 24
0000UTC 15.08.2018 108 22.2N 141.1W 1011 22
1200UTC 15.08.2018 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 38.0N 48.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.08.2018 84 37.5N 47.5W 1013 29
1200UTC 14.08.2018 96 37.5N 48.2W 1013 28
0000UTC 15.08.2018 108 38.4N 49.5W 1013 28
1200UTC 15.08.2018 120 38.7N 50.9W 1013 27
0000UTC 16.08.2018 132 40.3N 49.9W 1016 28
1200UTC 16.08.2018 144 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 101606

2018-08-10 18:31

WTNT80 EGRR 101606

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 10.08.2018

HURRICANE HECTOR ANALYSED POSITION : 17.4N 165.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 10.08.2018 17.4N 165.0W MODERATE
00UTC 11.08.2018 18.1N 167.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.08.2018 19.0N 169.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.08.2018 20.6N 171.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.08.2018 22.8N 173.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.08.2018 24.4N 176.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.08.2018 25.6N 179.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.08.2018 27.0N 177.6E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.08.2018 28.1N 174.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.08.2018 29.3N 171.0E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.08.2018 30.5N 168.0E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.08.2018 31.6N 165.6E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.08.2018 32.5N 164.2E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM JOHN ANALYSED POSITION : 26.4N 120.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 10.08.2018 26.4N 120.3W WEAK
00UTC 11.08.2018 27.6N 122.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.08.2018 27.8N 123.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.08.2018 28.0N 124.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.08.2018 28.1N 124.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.08.2018 28.1N 124.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.08.2018 28.3N 123.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.08.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY ANALYSED POSITION : 18.6N 129.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 10.08.2018 18.6N 129.8W MODERATE
00UTC 11.08.2018 20.2N 129.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.08.2018 20.9N 130.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.08.2018 21.1N 131.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.08.2018 21.2N 132.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.08.2018 21.0N 133.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.08.2018 21.0N 135.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.08.2018 21.2N 136.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.08.2018 21.6N 139.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.08.2018 22.2N 141.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.08.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 38.0N 48.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 14.08.2018 37.5N 47.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 14.08.2018 37.5N 48.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.08.2018 38.4N 49.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.08.2018 38.7N 50.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.08.2018 40.3N 49.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.08.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 101606

2018-08-10 17:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 101439 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 10 2018

KRISTY APPEARS TO HAVE AT LEAST MAINTAINED ITS STRENGTH OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A PARTIAL HIT FROM THE AMSR INSTRUMENT AT 0950
UTC INDICATED A CLOSED OR NEARLY-CLOSED MID-LEVEL EYE WAS PRESENT,
AND THIS FEATURE WAS STILL APPARENT IN SSMI IMAGERY A FEW HOURS
LATER. CONVECTION NEAR KRISTY'S CENTER HAS ALSO RECOVERED AFTER A
BRIEF DECREASE EARLIER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE
LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM THE
UW-CIMSS ADT AND SATCON ARE AROUND 50 KT, WHILE THE LATEST
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM SAB SUPPORTS AN INTENSITY OF
77 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 60 KT AS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE VARIOUS ESTIMATES, BUT THIS ESTIMATE IS PERHAPS MORE
UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL.

IN THE SHORT TERM, KRISTY STILL HAS A BRIEF PERIOD TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS WHILE THE SHEAR IS LOW AND IT REMAINS
OVER MARGINALLY WARM SSTS AROUND 26C. IN FACT, I CAN'T RULE OUT THAT
KRISTY COULD BRIEFLY BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. BEGINNING
TOMORROW, THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS, AND STEADY
WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS SOLUTION FOR 24 HOURS AND BEYOND. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK, THE TROPICAL STORM WILL LIKELY LOSE ALL CONVECTION AND BECOME
A REMNANT LOW, WHILE CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN OVER SUB-24C
WATERS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 010/8 KT. KRISTY SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING
GENERALLY NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, TOWARDS A WEAKNESS

2018-08-10 17:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 101439
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018
800 AM PDT Fri Aug 10 2018

Kristy appears to have at least maintained its strength over the
past several hours. A partial hit from the AMSR instrument at 0950
UTC indicated a closed or nearly-closed mid-level eye was present,
and this feature was still apparent in SSMI imagery a few hours
later. Convection near Kristy's center has also recovered after a
brief decrease earlier this morning. There is a large spread in the
latest satellite intensity estimates. Objective estimates from the
UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON are around 50 kt, while the latest
subjective Dvorak classification from SAB supports an intensity of
77 kt. The initial intensity has been held at 60 kt as a compromise
between the various estimates, but this estimate is perhaps more
uncertain than usual.

In the short term, Kristy still has a brief period to maintain its
intensity for about 12 hours while the shear is low and it remains
over marginally warm SSTs around 26C. In fact, I can't rule out that
Kristy could briefly become a hurricane later today. Beginning
tomorrow, the cyclone will be moving over cooler waters, and steady
weakening should begin. The intensity guidance is in very good
agreement on this solution for 24 hours and beyond. By early next
week, the tropical storm will likely lose all convection and become
a remnant low, while continuing to gradually spin down over sub-24C
waters.

The initial motion is now 010/8 kt. Kristy should continue moving
generally northward for the next couple of days, towards a weakness
in the subtropical ridge created by John and to the east of a large
upper-level trough located over the central Pacific. Once the
cyclone becomes a remnant low, it should turn gradually westward,
steered by the low-level flow. Even the GFS no longer shows any
significant interaction between Kristy and the remnants of John, so
the NHC forecast has shifted substantially southwestward by the end
of the forecast period, close to the HCCA and TVCN consensus aids.
Additional adjustments in this direction may be required if it
becomes clear that Kristy will weaken sooner than currently
forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 18.9N 129.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 19.9N 129.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 20.9N 129.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 21.6N 129.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 22.1N 130.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 23.3N 131.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/1200Z 24.0N 133.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/1200Z 24.5N 135.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-08-10 17:31

WTPZ33 KNHC 101438
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 10 2018

...KRISTY MAINTAINING STRENGTH BUT FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 129.8W
ABOUT 1310 MI...2110 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 129.8 WEST. KRISTY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). A GENERAL NORTHWARD
MOTION AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. KRISTY IS THEN FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY, HOWEVER THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT KRISTY COULD BRIEFLY BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT, AND KRISTY IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES (150 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB (29.27 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.

...
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-08-10 17:31

WTPZ23 KNHC 101438 RRA
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
1500 UTC FRI AUG 10 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 129.8W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 75SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 129.8W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 129.8W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.9N 129.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.9N 129.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.6N 129.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 22.1N 130.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 23.3N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 24.0N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 24.5N 135.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

2018-08-10 17:31

WTPZ23 KNHC 101438
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
1500 UTC FRI AUG 10 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 129.8W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 75SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 129.8W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 129.8W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.9N 129.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.9N 129.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.6N 129.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 22.1N 130.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 23.3N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 24.0N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 24.5N 135.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 129.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-08-10 11:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 100853 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 10 2018

KRISTY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY, AS THERE IS NOW A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH OUTER
BANDING IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE IN THE 55-65 KT RANGE, AND RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGESTS
WINDS ARE BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. BASED ON THESE DATA, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 60 KT. THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE
THAT KRISTY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
AFTER THAT, THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CYCLONE OVER COOLER WATERS
AND A STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST,
WHICH LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE, IS NUDGED
DOWNWARD A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, ALTHOUGH IT STILL
CALLS FOR KRISTY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 72 H.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 005/7. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS MADE A NOTABLE
WESTWARD SHIFT SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, AS THE MODELS GENERALLY
SHOW LESS INTERACTION BETWEEN KRISTY AND TROPICAL STORM JOHN.
HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD BETWEEN THE NORTHWARD
TRACKING GFS AND THE MORE WESTWARD UKMET AND ECMWF. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO SHIFTED WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK, BUT
IT LIES TO THE EAST OF THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS. AN ADDITIONAL
WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK MAY BE REQUIRED LATER IF THE
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 18.2N 129.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 19.2N 129.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 20.3N 129.2W 55 KT 65 MPH

2018-08-10 11:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 100853
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018
200 AM PDT Fri Aug 10 2018

Kristy has become a little better organized since the last
advisory, as there is now a small central dense overcast with outer
banding in the southern semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates
are in the 55-65 kt range, and recent scatterometer data suggests
winds are below hurricane strength. Based on these data, the
initial intensity is held at 60 kt. There is still some chance
that Kristy could become a hurricane during the next few hours.
After that, the forecast track takes the cyclone over cooler waters
and a steady weakening is forecast. The new intensity forecast,
which lies in the middle of the intensity guidance, is nudged
downward a little from the previous forecast, although it still
calls for Kristy to become a remnant low by 72 h.

The initial motion is 005/7. The track guidance has made a notable
westward shift since the previous advisory, as the models generally
show less interaction between Kristy and Tropical Storm John.
However, there is still a significant spread between the northward
tracking GFS and the more westward UKMET and ECMWF. The new
forecast track is also shifted westward from the previous track, but
it lies to the east of the various consensus models. An additional
westward adjustment to the track may be required later if the
current model trends continue.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 18.2N 129.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 19.2N 129.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 20.3N 129.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 21.1N 129.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 21.8N 129.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 23.5N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/0600Z 25.0N 132.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/0600Z 26.5N 133.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-08-10 11:31

WTPZ33 KNHC 100851
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 10 2018

...KRISTY REMAINS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 129.8W
ABOUT 1325 MI...2135 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 129.8 WEST. KRISTY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A
TURN BACK TO THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WHILE LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY, THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE THAT KRISTY COULD BECOME BRIEFLY BECOME A HURRICANE
THIS MORNING. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY TONIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES (150 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB (29.27 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

...
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-08-10 11:31

WTPZ23 KNHC 100850 RRA
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
0900 UTC FRI AUG 10 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 129.8W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 75SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 129.8W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 129.9W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.2N 129.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.3N 129.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 21.1N 129.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.8N 129.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 23.5N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 25.0N 132.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

2018-08-10 11:31

WTPZ23 KNHC 100850
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
0900 UTC FRI AUG 10 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 129.8W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 75SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 129.8W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 129.9W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.2N 129.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.3N 129.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 21.1N 129.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.8N 129.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 23.5N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 25.0N 132.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 26.5N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 129.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-08-10 06:31

WTNT82 EGRR 100406

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 10.08.2018

HURRICANE HECTOR ANALYSED POSITION : 16.7N 162.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 10.08.2018 0 16.7N 162.0W 983 58
1200UTC 10.08.2018 12 17.4N 164.9W 985 58
0000UTC 11.08.2018 24 18.0N 167.5W 984 59
1200UTC 11.08.2018 36 19.0N 169.4W 986 62
0000UTC 12.08.2018 48 20.4N 170.9W 991 52
1200UTC 12.08.2018 60 22.9N 172.7W 997 51
0000UTC 13.08.2018 72 25.0N 175.5W 1003 42
1200UTC 13.08.2018 84 27.0N 178.6W 1007 36
0000UTC 14.08.2018 96 28.9N 178.6E 1011 30
1200UTC 14.08.2018 108 30.4N 176.0E 1014 25
0000UTC 15.08.2018 120 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM JOHN ANALYSED POSITION : 25.0N 119.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 10.08.2018 0 25.0N 119.1W 991 42
1200UTC 10.08.2018 12 26.3N 120.8W 999 32
0000UTC 11.08.2018 24 27.3N 122.5W 1003 27
1200UTC 11.08.2018 36 27.8N 123.7W 1006 24
0000UTC 12.08.2018 48 28.3N 124.7W 1008 22
1200UTC 12.08.2018 60 28.4N 125.2W 1010 22
0000UTC 13.08.2018 72 28.6N 124.5W 1012 22
1200UTC 13.08.2018 84 28.8N 122.8W 1014 17
0000UTC 14.08.2018 96 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY ANALYSED POSITION : 17.2N 130.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 10.08.2018 0 17.2N 130.1W 992 43
1200UTC 10.08.2018 12 18.6N 129.6W 989 47
0000UTC 11.08.2018 24 20.1N 129.6W 993 43
1200UTC 11.08.2018 36 20.8N 129.8W 997 40
0000UTC 12.08.2018 48 21.3N 130.3W 1001 35
1200UTC 12.08.2018 60 21.7N 131.0W 1004 32
0000UTC 13.08.2018 72 21.7N 132.2W 1007 29
1200UTC 13.08.2018 84 21.9N 133.8W 1009 26
0000UTC 14.08.2018 96 22.2N 135.4W 1011 24
1200UTC 14.08.2018 108 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 100406

2018-08-10 06:31

WTNT80 EGRR 100406

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 10.08.2018

HURRICANE HECTOR ANALYSED POSITION : 16.7N 162.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 10.08.2018 16.7N 162.0W MODERATE
12UTC 10.08.2018 17.4N 164.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.08.2018 18.0N 167.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.08.2018 19.0N 169.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.08.2018 20.4N 170.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.08.2018 22.9N 172.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.08.2018 25.0N 175.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.08.2018 27.0N 178.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.08.2018 28.9N 178.6E WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 14.08.2018 30.4N 176.0E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.08.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM JOHN ANALYSED POSITION : 25.0N 119.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 10.08.2018 25.0N 119.1W MODERATE
12UTC 10.08.2018 26.3N 120.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.08.2018 27.3N 122.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.08.2018 27.8N 123.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.08.2018 28.3N 124.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.08.2018 28.4N 125.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.08.2018 28.6N 124.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.08.2018 28.8N 122.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.08.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY ANALYSED POSITION : 17.2N 130.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 10.08.2018 17.2N 130.1W MODERATE
12UTC 10.08.2018 18.6N 129.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.08.2018 20.1N 129.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.08.2018 20.8N 129.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.08.2018 21.3N 130.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.08.2018 21.7N 131.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.08.2018 21.7N 132.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.08.2018 21.9N 133.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.08.2018 22.2N 135.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.08.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 100406

2018-08-10 05:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 100249 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
800 PM PDT THU AUG 09 2018

RECENT 37-GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW THAT KRISTY'S LOW-LEVEL
STRUCTURE HAS IMPROVED MARKEDLY WITH A SOLID CYAN RING AND MULTIPLE
LOW-CLOUD SPIRAL BANDS. INNER-CORE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED TOO,
AND RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SUGGESTING THE POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT OF A RAGGED EYE. ALTHOUGH 00Z DVORAK ESTIMATES WERE A
CONSENSUS T3.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB, THE CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT IN
STRUCTURE SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KT. GIVEN THE
CYCLONE'S WELL-DEFINED STRUCTURE, KRISTY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE
OVERNIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY WHILE IT REMAINS OVER SUFFICIENTLY WARM
WATER AND IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. AFTER THAT TIME, COOLER
WATERS AND GRADUALLY INCREASING SHEAR WILL CAUSE THE WINDS IN THE
CIRCULATION TO SLOWLY DIMINISH, WITH DEEP CONVECTION LIKELY
DISSIPATING, AND KRISTY BECOMING POST-TROPICAL, BY 72 HOURS. THE
UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE GUIDANCE
IN THE FIRST 12 HOURS BUT THEN IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND CLOSE TO THE HCCA GUIDANCE AND THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS
THEREAFTER.

KRISTY IS MOVING SLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE NORTH, OR 010/6 KT. THERE
HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TUNE OF THE VARIOUS TRACK MODELS.
THE GFS AND HWRF CONTINUE TO SHOW KRISTY BEING PULLED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD BY TROPICAL STORM JOHN, WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET
MODELS SHOW LESS INTERACTION AND HAVE KRISTY TURNING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD BY 36-48 HOURS WITH MORE RIDGING TO THE NORTH. THIS
MIGHT BE A CLASSIC CASE OF WHY THE CONSENSUS APPROACH CAN WORK SO

2018-08-10 05:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 100249
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018
800 PM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018

Recent 37-GHz microwave images show that Kristy's low-level
structure has improved markedly with a solid cyan ring and multiple
low-cloud spiral bands. Inner-core convection has increased too,
and recent infrared satellite imagery is suggesting the possible
development of a ragged eye. Although 00Z Dvorak estimates were a
consensus T3.5 from TAFB and SAB, the continued improvement in
structure supports an initial intensity of 60 kt. Given the
cyclone's well-defined structure, Kristy could become a hurricane
overnight or early Friday while it remains over sufficiently warm
water and in a low-shear environment. After that time, cooler
waters and gradually increasing shear will cause the winds in the
circulation to slowly diminish, with deep convection likely
dissipating, and Kristy becoming post-tropical, by 72 hours. The
updated NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the guidance
in the first 12 hours but then is similar to the previous forecast
and close to the HCCA guidance and the ICON intensity consensus
thereafter.

Kristy is moving slightly east of due north, or 010/6 kt. There
has been little change in the tune of the various track models.
The GFS and HWRF continue to show Kristy being pulled north-
northeastward by Tropical Storm John, while the ECMWF and UKMET
models show less interaction and have Kristy turning west-
northwestward by 36-48 hours with more ridging to the north. This
might be a classic case of why the consensus approach can work so
well. So far, with 72 hours of forecasts for Kristy under our belt,
the GFS and the ECMWF have been the two worst-performing track
models, each having a significant eastward and westward bias,
respectively. The various consensus aids, on the other hand, have
proven to be the most skillful so far. For that reason, the NHC
track forecast continues to be down the middle of the guidance
envelope, close to a blend of the HCCA and TVCX aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 17.4N 129.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 18.4N 129.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 19.7N 129.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 20.7N 129.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 21.4N 129.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 23.2N 129.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 14/0000Z 25.5N 130.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/0000Z 27.0N 131.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-08-10 05:31

WTPZ33 KNHC 100248
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
800 PM PDT THU AUG 09 2018

...KRISTY A LITTLE STRONGER...
....COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING COOLER WATERS ON
FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 129.9W
ABOUT 1350 MI...2170 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 129.9 WEST. KRISTY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A TURN BACK TO
THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL IS STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE,
AND KRISTY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY
BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER WATER. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN LATER ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES (150 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB (29.30 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

...
FORECASTER BERG

2018-08-10 05:31

WTPZ23 KNHC 100248 RRA
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
0300 UTC FRI AUG 10 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 129.9W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 100SE 75SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 129.9W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 130.0W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.4N 129.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.7N 129.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.7N 129.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.4N 129.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 23.2N 129.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 25.5N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

2018-08-10 05:31

WTPZ23 KNHC 100248
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
0300 UTC FRI AUG 10 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 129.9W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 100SE 75SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 129.9W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 130.0W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.4N 129.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.7N 129.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.7N 129.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.4N 129.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 23.2N 129.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 25.5N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 27.0N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 129.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

2018-08-09 23:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 092037 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
200 PM PDT THU AUG 09 2018

KRISTY'S DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN WAXING AND WANING, WITH AN OVERALL
DECREASE A FEW HOURS AGO FOLLOWED BY A RECENT INCREASE NEAR THE
CENTER. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 55 KT, IN AGREEMENT WITH
OBJECTIVE ADT VALUES FROM UW/CIMSS AND A SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB. KRISTY IS OVER MARGINALLY WARM WATERS, IN
LOW VERTICAL SHEAR, AND WITH FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THERE IS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY OF ABOUT A DAY FOR
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION, AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE LGEM GUIDANCE. A
WEAKENING TREND IS LIKELY TO COMMENCE BY FRIDAY NIGHT, AND KRISTY
SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

VISIBLE IMAGERY AND SOME MICROWAVE DATA PROVIDED MORE ACCURATE
CENTER FIXES THAN EARLIER TODAY, AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS A MORE
CONFIDENT 360/6 KT. THE MAIN STEERING MECHANISMS FOR KRISTY ARE A
WEAK RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF WEAKENING JOHN
TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANT DIVERSITY IN THE
TRACK MODELS. THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS, AND THEIR ENSEMBLES, ARE
SUBSTANTIALLY TO THE LEFT OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS, HWRF,
AND HMON MUCH MORE TO NORTH AND EAST, PRESUMABLY DUE TO INTERACTION
WITH JOHN. SINCE THE WEAKENING JOHN MAY NOT BE THAT MUCH OF AN
INFLUENCE, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE
TWO EXTREMES AND CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 16.9N 130.1W 55 KT 65 MPH

2018-08-09 23:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 092037
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018
200 PM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018

Kristy's deep convection has been waxing and waning, with an overall
decrease a few hours ago followed by a recent increase near the
center. The advisory intensity is kept at 55 kt, in agreement with
objective ADT values from UW/CIMSS and a subjective Dvorak
classification from TAFB. Kristy is over marginally warm waters, in
low vertical shear, and with fairly well-defined upper-level
outflow. There is a window of opportunity of about a day for
additional intensification, and the official intensity forecast
follows the intensity model consensus and the LGEM guidance. A
weakening trend is likely to commence by Friday night, and Kristy
should degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone by late in the
weekend.

Visible imagery and some microwave data provided more accurate
center fixes than earlier today, and the initial motion is a more
confident 360/6 kt. The main steering mechanisms for Kristy are a
weak ridge to the north and the large circulation of weakening John
to the northeast. There continues to be significant diversity in the
track models. The ECMWF and UKMET models, and their ensembles, are
substantially to the left of the other guidance with the GFS, HWRF,
and HMON much more to north and east, presumably due to interaction
with John. Since the weakening John may not be that much of an
influence, the official forecast is roughly in the middle of these
two extremes and close to the model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 16.9N 130.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 17.7N 129.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 19.0N 129.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 20.3N 128.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 21.3N 128.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 23.0N 129.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 13/1800Z 25.0N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/1800Z 27.0N 131.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

2018-08-09 23:31

WTPZ33 KNHC 092036
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
200 PM PDT THU AUG 09 2018

...KRISTY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 130.1W
ABOUT 1375 MI...2210 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 130.1 WEST. KRISTY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H), AND A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OR FRIDAY, FOLLOWED
BY GRADUAL WEAKENING.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES (150 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB (29.36 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

...
FORECASTER PASCH

2018-08-09 23:31

WTPZ23 KNHC 092036 RRA
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
2100 UTC THU AUG 09 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 130.1W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 130.1W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 130.1W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.7N 129.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.0N 129.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.3N 128.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 21.3N 128.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.0N 129.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 25.0N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

2018-08-09 23:31

WTPZ23 KNHC 092036
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
2100 UTC THU AUG 09 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 130.1W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 130.1W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 130.1W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.7N 129.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.0N 129.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.3N 128.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 21.3N 128.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.0N 129.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 25.0N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 27.0N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 130.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

2018-08-09 18:31

WTNT82 EGRR 091605

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 09.08.2018

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ANALYSED POSITION : 43.6N 44.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.08.2018 0 43.6N 44.4W 997 50
0000UTC 10.08.2018 12 45.8N 38.9W 999 43
1200UTC 10.08.2018 24 48.0N 30.9W 997 46
0000UTC 11.08.2018 36 50.0N 22.3W 1001 39
1200UTC 11.08.2018 48 53.7N 15.9W 995 33
0000UTC 12.08.2018 60 POST-TROPICAL

HURRICANE HECTOR ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 159.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.08.2018 0 16.6N 159.1W 980 63
0000UTC 10.08.2018 12 16.9N 162.0W 982 59
1200UTC 10.08.2018 24 17.5N 164.7W 982 60
0000UTC 11.08.2018 36 18.3N 167.3W 982 57
1200UTC 11.08.2018 48 19.1N 169.1W 987 60
0000UTC 12.08.2018 60 20.5N 170.7W 992 49
1200UTC 12.08.2018 72 22.4N 172.6W 998 46
0000UTC 13.08.2018 84 24.4N 175.2W 1004 39
1200UTC 13.08.2018 96 26.4N 178.4W 1006 38
0000UTC 14.08.2018 108 28.4N 178.6E 1008 39
1200UTC 14.08.2018 120 29.8N 175.5E 1009 35
0000UTC 15.08.2018 132 31.1N 173.2E 1009 32
1200UTC 15.08.2018 144 32.8N 171.9E 1007 33

TROPICAL STORM JOHN ANALYSED POSITION : 24.2N 117.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.08.2018 0 24.2N 117.0W 985 49
0000UTC 10.08.2018 12 25.3N 119.5W 990 42
1200UTC 10.08.2018 24 26.3N 121.6W 997 33
0000UTC 11.08.2018 36 27.2N 122.9W 1001 30
1200UTC 11.08.2018 48 28.1N 124.2W 1005 26
0000UTC 12.08.2018 60 28.5N 125.1W 1008 26
1200UTC 12.08.2018 72 29.3N 124.7W 1011 22
0000UTC 13.08.2018 84 30.3N 123.0W 1013 20
1200UTC 13.08.2018 96 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY ANALYSED POSITION : 16.0N 129.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.08.2018 0 16.0N 129.9W 992 41
0000UTC 10.08.2018 12 17.0N 129.6W 990 44
1200UTC 10.08.2018 24 18.6N 128.7W 987 50
0000UTC 11.08.2018 36 20.3N 128.6W 989 48
1200UTC 11.08.2018 48 21.0N 128.6W 992 49
0000UTC 12.08.2018 60 21.7N 128.6W 996 42
1200UTC 12.08.2018 72 22.5N 129.1W 1000 38
0000UTC 13.08.2018 84 23.2N 129.8W 1003 36
1200UTC 13.08.2018 96 24.0N 131.5W 1008 30
0000UTC 14.08.2018 108 24.5N 133.1W 1010 26
1200UTC 14.08.2018 120 24.5N 134.5W 1012 23
0000UTC 15.08.2018 132 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 091605

2018-08-09 18:31

WTNT80 EGRR 091605

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 09.08.2018

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ANALYSED POSITION : 43.6N 44.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.08.2018 43.6N 44.4W MODERATE
00UTC 10.08.2018 45.8N 38.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.08.2018 48.0N 30.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.08.2018 50.0N 22.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.08.2018 53.7N 15.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.08.2018 POST-TROPICAL

HURRICANE HECTOR ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 159.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.08.2018 16.6N 159.1W MODERATE
00UTC 10.08.2018 16.9N 162.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.08.2018 17.5N 164.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.08.2018 18.3N 167.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.08.2018 19.1N 169.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.08.2018 20.5N 170.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.08.2018 22.4N 172.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.08.2018 24.4N 175.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.08.2018 26.4N 178.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.08.2018 28.4N 178.6E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.08.2018 29.8N 175.5E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.08.2018 31.1N 173.2E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.08.2018 32.8N 171.9E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM JOHN ANALYSED POSITION : 24.2N 117.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.08.2018 24.2N 117.0W MODERATE
00UTC 10.08.2018 25.3N 119.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.08.2018 26.3N 121.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.08.2018 27.2N 122.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.08.2018 28.1N 124.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.08.2018 28.5N 125.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.08.2018 29.3N 124.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.08.2018 30.3N 123.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.08.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY ANALYSED POSITION : 16.0N 129.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.08.2018 16.0N 129.9W MODERATE
00UTC 10.08.2018 17.0N 129.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.08.2018 18.6N 128.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.08.2018 20.3N 128.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.08.2018 21.0N 128.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.08.2018 21.7N 128.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.08.2018 22.5N 129.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.08.2018 23.2N 129.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.08.2018 24.0N 131.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.08.2018 24.5N 133.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.08.2018 24.5N 134.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.08.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 091605

2018-08-09 17:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 091431 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
800 AM PDT THU AUG 09 2018

DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
KRISTY, MAINLY IN A CURVED BAND OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
CYCLONE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 55 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH
A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST CIMSS SATCON
VALUE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE KRISTY
REACHES COOLER WATERS LATE TOMORROW, AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE IVCN INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. A WEAKENING TREND IS
LIKELY TO COMMENCE TOMORROW NIGHT, AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER THIS WEEKEND.

CENTER FIXES HAVE A LOT OF SCATTER AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN
UNCERTAIN 345/4 KT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE
TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE, ALONG WITH THE
HWRF AND HMON REGIONAL MODELS, ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN SHOWING KRISTY
BEING DRAWN INTO THE LARGER CIRCULATION OF JOHN TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS DO NOT TAKE KRISTY NEARLY AS FAR TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS THOSE OTHER MODELS. SINCE JOHN IS WEAKENING,
IT MAY NOT HAVE THAT MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE ON KRISTY, ESPECIALLY
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR NOW, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT NOT AS MUCH AS
SHOWN BY THE SIMPLE AND CORRECTED DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS TRACKS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 16.1N 130.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 17.0N 130.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 18.2N 129.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 19.3N 129.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

2018-08-09 17:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 091431
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018
800 AM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018

Deep convection has continued to increase in association with
Kristy, mainly in a curved band over the northern semicircle of the
cyclone. The current intensity estimate is 55 kt in agreement with
a Dvorak estimate from TAFB and is close to the latest CIMSS SATCON
value. Some additional strengthening is possible before Kristy
reaches cooler waters late tomorrow, and the official forecast is
close to the IVCN intensity model consensus. A weakening trend is
likely to commence tomorrow night, and the system is expected to
become post-tropical later this weekend.

Center fixes have a lot of scatter and the initial motion is an
uncertain 345/4 kt. There continues to be a lot of spread in the
track guidance models. The GFS and its ensemble, along with the
HWRF and HMON regional models, are most aggressive in showing Kristy
being drawn into the larger circulation of John to the northeast.
The UKMET and ECMWF models do not take Kristy nearly as far to the
north and northeast as those other models. Since John is weakening,
it may not have that much of an influence on Kristy, especially
later in the forecast period. For now, the official forecast is
shifted a little to the right of the previous one but not as much as
shown by the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus tracks.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 16.1N 130.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 17.0N 130.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 18.2N 129.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 19.3N 129.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 20.4N 128.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 22.0N 128.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 13/1200Z 23.8N 129.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/1200Z 25.5N 130.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

2018-08-09 17:31

WTPZ33 KNHC 091430
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
800 AM PDT THU AUG 09 2018

...KRISTY STRENGTHENS SOME MORE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 130.3W
ABOUT 1405 MI...2265 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 130.3 WEST. KRISTY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H), AND A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY
OR FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB (29.36 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.

...
FORECASTER PASCH

2018-08-09 17:31

WTPZ23 KNHC 091430 RRA
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
1500 UTC THU AUG 09 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 130.3W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 130.3W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 130.2W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.0N 130.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.2N 129.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.3N 129.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.4N 128.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 22.0N 128.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 23.8N 129.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

2018-08-09 17:31

WTPZ23 KNHC 091430
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
1500 UTC THU AUG 09 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 130.3W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 130.3W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 130.2W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.0N 130.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.2N 129.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.3N 129.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.4N 128.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 22.0N 128.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 23.8N 129.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 25.5N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 130.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

2018-08-09 11:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 090844
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018
200 AM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018

Deep convection has continued to increase near and to the north and
east of Kristy's center, and cirrus outflow has expanded some in all
quadrants. Satellite intensity estimates supported an intensity of
40 kt at 0600 UTC, but the recent increase in convection, along with
a Dvorak estimate of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and and a UW-CIMSS ADT
estimate of T2.9/43 kt, justify increasing the advisory intensity to
45 kt.

Kristy has turned to north-northwest and is now moving 345/05 kt.
The cyclone is expected to turn toward the north later today,
followed by a motion toward the north-northeast or northeast in the
24-48 h time period as Kristy and much larger Tropical Storm John
undergo some weak binary interaction. However, the two cyclones
separate by 72 h as John weakens over cold waters and its influence
on Kristy diminishes, resulting in a turn to the north. By 96 h and
beyond, Kristy will also be located over much colder water and is
expected to have degenerated into a shallow remnant low pressure,
becoming steered more westward by the deep-layer easterly trade
wind flow. There remains considerable divergence among the global
and regional hurricane models, with the GFS, HWRF, and HMON models
keeping Kristy moving northward after 72 h, and the ECMWF and UKMET
models moving Kristy westward. The guidance envelope has shifted
markedly to the right of the previous forecast track, and the new
official forecast track has also been shifted in that direction.
However, the new track forecast was not shifted as far east as the
consensus models HCCA and FSSE, out of respect for the reliable
ECMWF model.

There is a narrow window of opportunity of about 24 h for Kristy to
strengthen a little more while the cyclone remains over SSTs of
26-26.5 deg C and in a low-shear environment. After that time,
however, cooler waters and the entrainment of much drier mid-level
air is expected to induce steady weakening through the remainder of
the forecast period, with the cyclone becoming post-tropical by 72
h, if not sooner. The official intensity forecast is similar to the
intensity consensus model IVCN through 24 h, and then is a little
lower than IVCN after that due to Kristy moving over sub-25 deg C
SSTs.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 15.8N 130.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 16.5N 130.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 17.6N 129.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 18.7N 129.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 19.8N 128.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 21.4N 129.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 13/0600Z 22.8N 129.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/0600Z 23.5N 132.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-08-09 11:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 090844 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
200 AM PDT THU AUG 09 2018

DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF KRISTY'S CENTER, AND CIRRUS OUTFLOW HAS EXPANDED SOME IN ALL
QUADRANTS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORTED AN INTENSITY OF
40 KT AT 0600 UTC, BUT THE RECENT INCREASE IN CONVECTION, ALONG WITH
A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND AND A UW-CIMSS ADT
ESTIMATE OF T2.9/43 KT, JUSTIFY INCREASING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY TO
45 KT.

KRISTY HAS TURNED TO NORTH-NORTHWEST AND IS NOW MOVING 345/05 KT.
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH LATER TODAY,
FOLLOWED BY A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST IN THE
24-48 H TIME PERIOD AS KRISTY AND MUCH LARGER TROPICAL STORM JOHN
UNDERGO SOME WEAK BINARY INTERACTION. HOWEVER, THE TWO CYCLONES
SEPARATE BY 72 H AS JOHN WEAKENS OVER COLD WATERS AND ITS INFLUENCE
ON KRISTY DIMINISHES, RESULTING IN A TURN TO THE NORTH. BY 96 H AND
BEYOND, KRISTY WILL ALSO BE LOCATED OVER MUCH COLDER WATER AND IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE DEGENERATED INTO A SHALLOW REMNANT LOW PRESSURE,
BECOMING STEERED MORE WESTWARD BY THE DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY TRADE
WIND FLOW. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE AMONG THE GLOBAL
AND REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS, WITH THE GFS, HWRF, AND HMON MODELS
KEEPING KRISTY MOVING NORTHWARD AFTER 72 H, AND THE ECMWF AND UKMET
MODELS MOVING KRISTY WESTWARD. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED
MARKEDLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK, AND THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS ALSO BEEN SHIFTED IN THAT DIRECTION.
HOWEVER, THE NEW TRACK FORECAST WAS NOT SHIFTED AS FAR EAST AS THE

2018-08-09 11:31

WTPZ33 KNHC 090843
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
200 AM PDT THU AUG 09 2018

...KRISTY STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY WHILE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 130.1W
ABOUT 1405 MI...2255 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 130.1 WEST. KRISTY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON, AND A GENERAL NORTHWARD
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW DAYS THEREAFTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN BY LATE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB (29.53 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

..
FORECASTER STEWART

2018-08-09 11:31

WTPZ23 KNHC 090843 RRA
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
0900 UTC THU AUG 09 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 130.1W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 130.1W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 130.1W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.5N 130.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.6N 129.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.7N 129.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.8N 128.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.4N 129.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 22.8N 129.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 23.5N 132.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

2018-08-09 11:31

WTPZ23 KNHC 090843
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
0900 UTC THU AUG 09 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 130.1W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 130.1W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 130.1W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.5N 130.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.6N 129.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.7N 129.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.8N 128.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.4N 129.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 22.8N 129.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 23.5N 132.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 130.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

2018-08-09 06:31

WTNT82 EGRR 090406

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 09.08.2018

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ANALYSED POSITION : 42.2N 47.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 09.08.2018 0 42.2N 47.6W 1003 41
1200UTC 09.08.2018 12 43.6N 44.8W 1003 39
0000UTC 10.08.2018 24 45.3N 39.6W 1004 38
1200UTC 10.08.2018 36 47.0N 32.3W 1004 39
0000UTC 11.08.2018 48 48.6N 23.6W 1005 36
1200UTC 11.08.2018 60 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE HECTOR ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 156.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 09.08.2018 0 16.4N 156.1W 966 76
1200UTC 09.08.2018 12 16.3N 159.1W 977 64
0000UTC 10.08.2018 24 16.5N 161.6W 975 65
1200UTC 10.08.2018 36 17.0N 163.9W 981 61
0000UTC 11.08.2018 48 18.0N 166.0W 984 57
1200UTC 11.08.2018 60 19.2N 167.9W 985 58
0000UTC 12.08.2018 72 20.8N 169.7W 986 56
1200UTC 12.08.2018 84 22.8N 171.8W 993 53
0000UTC 13.08.2018 96 24.9N 174.1W 998 47
1200UTC 13.08.2018 108 26.9N 176.8W 1002 43
0000UTC 14.08.2018 120 29.3N 179.4W 1003 46
1200UTC 14.08.2018 132 31.7N 178.0E 1007 42
0000UTC 15.08.2018 144 33.4N 176.2E 1010 33

HURRICANE JOHN ANALYSED POSITION : 22.5N 113.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 09.08.2018 0 22.5N 113.9W 973 65
1200UTC 09.08.2018 12 24.2N 116.8W 976 57
0000UTC 10.08.2018 24 25.3N 119.0W 984 47
1200UTC 10.08.2018 36 26.3N 120.9W 993 37
0000UTC 11.08.2018 48 27.3N 122.5W 999 32
1200UTC 11.08.2018 60 27.6N 123.8W 1003 28
0000UTC 12.08.2018 72 27.5N 124.9W 1005 29
1200UTC 12.08.2018 84 27.4N 125.0W 1008 23
0000UTC 13.08.2018 96 27.7N 124.3W 1011 22
1200UTC 13.08.2018 108 28.3N 122.8W 1013 18
0000UTC 14.08.2018 120 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 130.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 09.08.2018 0 15.0N 130.0W 1001 28
1200UTC 09.08.2018 12 16.0N 130.3W 1000 31
0000UTC 10.08.2018 24 16.9N 130.1W 998 35
1200UTC 10.08.2018 36 17.8N 129.4W 998 40
0000UTC 11.08.2018 48 19.3N 129.0W 999 40
1200UTC 11.08.2018 60 20.3N 129.1W 1000 36
0000UTC 12.08.2018 72 20.6N 129.4W 1003 35
1200UTC 12.08.2018 84 20.7N 130.1W 1004 30
0000UTC 13.08.2018 96 20.7N 131.1W 1007 30
1200UTC 13.08.2018 108 20.8N 132.6W 1009 28
0000UTC 14.08.2018 120 21.1N 134.0W 1011 27
1200UTC 14.08.2018 132 21.2N 135.9W 1012 24
0000UTC 15.08.2018 144 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 090406

2018-08-09 06:31

WTNT80 EGRR 090406

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 09.08.2018

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ANALYSED POSITION : 42.2N 47.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 09.08.2018 42.2N 47.6W WEAK
12UTC 09.08.2018 43.6N 44.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.08.2018 45.3N 39.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.08.2018 47.0N 32.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.08.2018 48.6N 23.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.08.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE HECTOR ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 156.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 09.08.2018 16.4N 156.1W STRONG
12UTC 09.08.2018 16.3N 159.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.08.2018 16.5N 161.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.08.2018 17.0N 163.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.08.2018 18.0N 166.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.08.2018 19.2N 167.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.08.2018 20.8N 169.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.08.2018 22.8N 171.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.08.2018 24.9N 174.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.08.2018 26.9N 176.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.08.2018 29.3N 179.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.08.2018 31.7N 178.0E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.08.2018 33.4N 176.2E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

HURRICANE JOHN ANALYSED POSITION : 22.5N 113.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 09.08.2018 22.5N 113.9W STRONG
12UTC 09.08.2018 24.2N 116.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.08.2018 25.3N 119.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.08.2018 26.3N 120.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.08.2018 27.3N 122.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.08.2018 27.6N 123.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.08.2018 27.5N 124.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.08.2018 27.4N 125.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.08.2018 27.7N 124.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.08.2018 28.3N 122.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.08.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 130.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 09.08.2018 15.0N 130.0W WEAK
12UTC 09.08.2018 16.0N 130.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.08.2018 16.9N 130.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.08.2018 17.8N 129.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.08.2018 19.3N 129.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.08.2018 20.3N 129.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.08.2018 20.6N 129.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.08.2018 20.7N 130.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.08.2018 20.7N 131.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.08.2018 20.8N 132.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.08.2018 21.1N 134.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.08.2018 21.2N 135.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.08.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 090406

2018-08-09 05:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 090240 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
800 PM PDT WED AUG 08 2018

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH KRISTY HAS INCREASED NEAR AND TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER, MICROWAVE
IMAGES STILL SHOW THAT THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS NOT SYMMETRIC DUE
TO WESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 KT, SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AGAIN HELD AT 40
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

KRISTY WILL LIKELY HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE IT PULLS AWAY FROM THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
AND REMAINS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER. IN ABOUT 48 HOURS, HOWEVER,
KRISTY IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE 26 DEGREE C ISOTHERM. THESE COOLER
WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
END THE OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING AND RESULT IN A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND. THE INTENSITY MODELS REMAIN QUITE DIVERGENT, WITH
THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOWING LITTLE OR NO STRENGTHENING WHILE
THE HWRF MODEL PREDICTS KRISTY TO REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY. THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THESE SCENARIOS AND IS IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS FORECAST SHOWS
KRISTY BECOMING A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY DAY 4 WHEN THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER 23 DEGREE C SSTS.

THE TROPICAL STORM HAS TURNED NORTHWESTWARD, WITH THE LATEST INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATED TO BE 315/6 KT. A TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AS KRISTY GETS DRAWN TOWARD THE LARGER AND STRONGER

2018-08-09 05:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 090240
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018
800 PM PDT Wed Aug 08 2018

Deep convection associated with Kristy has increased near and to the
east of the center during the past few hours. However, microwave
images still show that the convective pattern is not symmetric due
to westerly shear associated with a mid- to upper-level low to the
north-northeast of the cyclone. The satellite intensity estimates
range from 35 to 45 kt, so the initial intensity is again held at 40
kt for this advisory.

Kristy will likely have an opportunity to strengthen some during the
next day or two while it pulls away from the mid- to upper-level low
and remains over relatively warm water. In about 48 hours, however,
Kristy is expected to cross the 26 degree C isotherm. These cooler
waters along the forecast track and a more stable environment should
end the opportunity for strengthening and result in a gradual
weakening trend. The intensity models remain quite divergent, with
the SHIPS and LGEM models showing little or no strengthening while
the HWRF model predicts Kristy to reach hurricane intensity. The
NHC intensity forecast lies between these scenarios and is in best
agreement with the intensity model consensus. This forecast shows
Kristy becoming a post-tropical cyclone by day 4 when the system is
expected to be over 23 degree C SSTs.

The tropical storm has turned northwestward, with the latest initial
motion estimated to be 315/6 kt. A turn to the north is expected on
Thursday as Kristy gets drawn toward the larger and stronger
Hurricane John. The spread in the models remains really large with
the GFS and HWRF models showing Kristy moving northeastward and even
merging with John. Conversely, the ECMWF and UKMET models show a
northward and then more westward motion when Kristy becomes a weak
and shallow system in 4 to 5 days. The NHC track forecast has been
adjusted a little to the right, but it remains to the west of the
consensus models in favor of the UKMET and ECMWF solutions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 15.3N 130.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 16.0N 130.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 16.9N 130.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 18.0N 130.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 19.2N 129.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 21.0N 129.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 22.5N 130.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 14/0000Z 23.0N 131.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-08-09 05:31

WTPZ33 KNHC 090239
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
800 PM PDT WED AUG 08 2018

...KRISTY TURNS NORTHWESTWARD...
....SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 130.0W
ABOUT 1410 MI...2270 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 130.0 WEST. KRISTY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, AND A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW DAYS THEREAFTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, BUT
GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN BY SATURDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

...
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-08-09 05:31

WTPZ23 KNHC 090239 RRA
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
0300 UTC THU AUG 09 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 130.0W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 130.0W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 129.9W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.0N 130.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 16.9N 130.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.0N 130.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.2N 129.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.0N 129.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 22.5N 130.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 23.0N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

2018-08-09 05:31

WTPZ23 KNHC 090239
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
0300 UTC THU AUG 09 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 130.0W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 130.0W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 129.9W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.0N 130.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 16.9N 130.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.0N 130.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.2N 129.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.0N 129.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 22.5N 130.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 23.0N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 130.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-08-08 23:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 082031 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
200 PM PDT WED AUG 08 2018

KRISTY'S OVERALL STRUCTURE HASN'T CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS, BUT CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION HAVE
NOTICEABLY WARMED. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE
ALSO NOT CHANGED, SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 40 KT.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE VARIOUS INTENSITY MODELS HAVE NOT CHANGED, EITHER
AND THE SPREAD REMAINS HIGH. WHILE THE HWRF CONTINUES TO SHOW KRISTY
QUICKLY STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE INTENSITY, ALL OF THE
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE TROPICAL STORM VERY WEAK
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST THEREFORE CONTINUES
TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE SCENARIOS AND SHOWS SLOW
STRENGTHENING FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS IN
A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. BY DAYS 4 AND 5, KRISTY IS FORECAST TO BE
MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER SSTS AND THROUGH A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT,
WHICH SHOULD CAUSE IT TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW.

THE TRACK FORECAST IS ALSO STILL LOW CONFIDENCE. ALTHOUGH KRISTY IS
CURRENTLY MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 300/5
KT, THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT KRISTY WILL TURN NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CREATED BY HURRICANE JOHN. THE UNCERTAINTY GROWS SUBSTANTIALLY
BEYOND 24 H. THE GFS CONTINUES TO INSIST ON A STEERING FLOW THAT
WILL CAUSE KRISTY TO BECOME WRAPPED UP IN THE LARGER CIRCULATION OF
JOHN, WHILE THE UKMET AND ECMWF SHOW ONLY A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION,
FOLLOWED BY A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST OR NORTHWEST ONCE THE

2018-08-08 23:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 082031
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018
200 PM PDT Wed Aug 08 2018

Kristy's overall structure hasn't changed much over the past few
hours, but cloud tops associated with the deepest convection have
noticeably warmed. The intensity estimates from all agencies have
also not changed, so the initial intensity has been held at 40 kt.
Unfortunately, the various intensity models have not changed, either
and the spread remains high. While the HWRF continues to show Kristy
quickly strengthening to hurricane intensity, all of the
statistical-dynamical guidance keeps the tropical storm very weak
throughout the forecast period. The NHC forecast therefore continues
to split the difference between these scenarios and shows slow
strengthening for a couple of days while the cyclone remains in
a low-shear environment. By days 4 and 5, Kristy is forecast to be
moving over much cooler SSTs and through a more stable environment,
which should cause it to weaken and become a remnant low.

The track forecast is also still low confidence. Although Kristy is
currently moving west-northwestward with an initial motion of 300/5
kt, the models are in good agreement that Kristy will turn northward
overnight and tomorrow due to a weakness in the subtropical ridge
created by Hurricane John. The uncertainty grows substantially
beyond 24 h. The GFS continues to insist on a steering flow that
will cause Kristy to become wrapped up in the larger circulation of
John, while the UKMET and ECMWF show only a slow northward motion,
followed by a turn back toward the west or northwest once the
cyclone becomes a remnant low. The NHC forecast has been favoring
the western solution, and I don't see an obvious reason to change
that reasoning at this time. Therefore, little change has been
made to the track forecast, which lies near a consensus of those two
models, a little west of the multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 14.7N 129.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 15.3N 130.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 16.2N 130.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 17.2N 130.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 18.2N 130.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 20.2N 130.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 21.3N 130.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 22.0N 132.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-08-08 23:31

WTPZ33 KNHC 082031
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
200 PM PDT WED AUG 08 2018

...KRISTY EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 129.6W
ABOUT 1405 MI...2260 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 129.6 WEST. KRISTY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY OR EARLY THURSDAY, AND A GENERAL
NORTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW DAYS THEREAFTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

...
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-08-08 23:31

WTPZ23 KNHC 082030 RRA
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
2100 UTC WED AUG 08 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 129.6W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 129.6W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 129.4W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 15.3N 130.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.2N 130.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.2N 130.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.2N 130.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.2N 130.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 21.3N 130.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 22.0N 132.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

2018-08-08 23:31

WTPZ23 KNHC 082030
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
2100 UTC WED AUG 08 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 129.6W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 129.6W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 129.4W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 15.3N 130.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.2N 130.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.2N 130.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.2N 130.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.2N 130.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 21.3N 130.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 22.0N 132.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 129.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-08-08 18:31

WTNT82 EGRR 081608

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 08.08.2018

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ANALYSED POSITION : 40.7N 48.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.08.2018 0 40.7N 48.9W 1004 31
0000UTC 09.08.2018 12 42.2N 47.8W 1003 37
1200UTC 09.08.2018 24 43.3N 44.6W 1001 44
0000UTC 10.08.2018 36 45.5N 39.1W 995 46
1200UTC 10.08.2018 48 46.8N 32.3W 999 44
0000UTC 11.08.2018 60 48.5N 23.7W 1003 38
1200UTC 11.08.2018 72 52.3N 16.8W 995 33
0000UTC 12.08.2018 84 POST-TROPICAL

HURRICANE HECTOR ANALYSED POSITION : 16.5N 153.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.08.2018 0 16.5N 153.1W 984 50
0000UTC 09.08.2018 12 16.4N 156.4W 988 52
1200UTC 09.08.2018 24 16.1N 159.6W 989 57
0000UTC 10.08.2018 36 16.1N 162.6W 988 54
1200UTC 10.08.2018 48 16.1N 165.2W 988 54
0000UTC 11.08.2018 60 16.4N 167.3W 989 49
1200UTC 11.08.2018 72 17.2N 168.8W 991 50
0000UTC 12.08.2018 84 18.6N 170.4W 989 56
1200UTC 12.08.2018 96 20.5N 172.6W 994 51
0000UTC 13.08.2018 108 22.3N 175.1W 998 45
1200UTC 13.08.2018 120 24.4N 177.5W 998 49
0000UTC 14.08.2018 132 26.6N 179.9E 998 52
1200UTC 14.08.2018 144 28.4N 176.8E 1003 44

HURRICANE JOHN ANALYSED POSITION : 20.4N 112.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.08.2018 0 20.4N 112.1W 974 69
0000UTC 09.08.2018 12 22.2N 114.0W 974 63
1200UTC 09.08.2018 24 23.6N 116.4W 973 63
0000UTC 10.08.2018 36 25.0N 118.5W 982 50
1200UTC 10.08.2018 48 26.3N 120.4W 991 41
0000UTC 11.08.2018 60 27.4N 122.4W 997 32
1200UTC 11.08.2018 72 27.5N 124.0W 1001 30
0000UTC 12.08.2018 84 27.5N 124.9W 1004 26
1200UTC 12.08.2018 96 27.8N 125.2W 1006 24
0000UTC 13.08.2018 108 28.4N 124.7W 1008 23
1200UTC 13.08.2018 120 29.2N 123.7W 1011 19
0000UTC 14.08.2018 132 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY ANALYSED POSITION : 14.4N 129.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.08.2018 0 14.4N 129.0W 1001 31
0000UTC 09.08.2018 12 15.2N 130.3W 1002 26
1200UTC 09.08.2018 24 15.9N 130.6W 1002 27
0000UTC 10.08.2018 36 16.8N 130.8W 1001 32
1200UTC 10.08.2018 48 17.8N 130.1W 1001 33
0000UTC 11.08.2018 60 19.4N 129.9W 1002 33
1200UTC 11.08.2018 72 20.5N 130.0W 1005 28
0000UTC 12.08.2018 84 20.9N 130.3W 1006 25
1200UTC 12.08.2018 96 21.2N 130.6W 1008 23
0000UTC 13.08.2018 108 21.3N 131.2W 1010 22
1200UTC 13.08.2018 120 21.4N 132.4W 1012 21
0000UTC 14.08.2018 132 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 081608

2018-08-08 18:31

WTNT80 EGRR 081608

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 08.08.2018

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ANALYSED POSITION : 40.7N 48.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.08.2018 40.7N 48.9W WEAK
00UTC 09.08.2018 42.2N 47.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.08.2018 43.3N 44.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.08.2018 45.5N 39.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.08.2018 46.8N 32.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.08.2018 48.5N 23.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.08.2018 52.3N 16.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.08.2018 POST-TROPICAL

HURRICANE HECTOR ANALYSED POSITION : 16.5N 153.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.08.2018 16.5N 153.1W MODERATE
00UTC 09.08.2018 16.4N 156.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.08.2018 16.1N 159.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.08.2018 16.1N 162.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.08.2018 16.1N 165.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.08.2018 16.4N 167.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.08.2018 17.2N 168.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.08.2018 18.6N 170.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.08.2018 20.5N 172.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.08.2018 22.3N 175.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.08.2018 24.4N 177.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.08.2018 26.6N 179.9E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.08.2018 28.4N 176.8E WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

HURRICANE JOHN ANALYSED POSITION : 20.4N 112.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.08.2018 20.4N 112.1W STRONG
00UTC 09.08.2018 22.2N 114.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.08.2018 23.6N 116.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.08.2018 25.0N 118.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.08.2018 26.3N 120.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.08.2018 27.4N 122.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.08.2018 27.5N 124.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.08.2018 27.5N 124.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.08.2018 27.8N 125.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.08.2018 28.4N 124.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.08.2018 29.2N 123.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.08.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY ANALYSED POSITION : 14.4N 129.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.08.2018 14.4N 129.0W WEAK
00UTC 09.08.2018 15.2N 130.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.08.2018 15.9N 130.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.08.2018 16.8N 130.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.08.2018 17.8N 130.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.08.2018 19.4N 129.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.08.2018 20.5N 130.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.08.2018 20.9N 130.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.08.2018 21.2N 130.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.08.2018 21.3N 131.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.08.2018 21.4N 132.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.08.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 081608

2018-08-08 17:35

WTPZ43 KNHC 081433 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
800 AM PDT WED AUG 08 2018

KRISTY HAS CONTINUES TO HAVE THE STRUCTURE OF A STRONGLY SHEARED
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO
IDENTIFY OVERNIGHT, BUT RECENT MICROWAVE DATA INDICATES THAT IT IS
DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MASS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 40 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK
FINAL-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB.

ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO TRACK,
IT APPEARS THAT KRISTY HAS BEGUN TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/7 KT. LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY LOW. A
BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY HURRICANE JOHN SHOULD
ALLOW KRISTY TO CONTINUE TURNING, RESULTING IN A NORTHWARD MOTION BY
THURSDAY. BEYOND THAT TIME, THE MODEL SPREAD REMAINS HIGH, FUELED BY
A COMBINATION OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH JOHN AND KRISTY WILL
DIRECTLY INTERACT, AND HOW MUCH KRISTY WILL RESPOND TO AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS IS A NOTABLE OUTLIER ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, AND IS THE ONLY MODEL
SHOWING KRISTY WRAPPING AROUND THE CIRCULATION OF JOHN. FOR NOW, THE
NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO DOWNPLAY THIS POSSIBILITY, AND IS A LITTLE
TO THE WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SPREAD IS ALSO HIGH, RANGING FROM THE HWRF
WHICH MAKES KRISTY A HURRICANE, TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM WHICH FORECAST
ONLY GRADUAL WEAKENING. SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE OVER
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, AND KRISTY WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE

2018-08-08 17:35

WTPZ43 KNHC 081433
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018
800 AM PDT Wed Aug 08 2018

Kristy has continues to have the structure of a strongly sheared
tropical cyclone. The low-level center has been difficult to
identify overnight, but recent microwave data indicates that it is
displaced to the northwest of the primary convective mass. The
initial intensity has been held at 40 kt based on a blend of Dvorak
Final-T numbers from TAFB and SAB.

Although the low-level center has been somewhat difficult to track,
it appears that Kristy has begun to turn west-northwestward, and the
initial motion estimate is 290/7 kt. Little change has been made to
the official track forecast, but confidence remains very low. A
break in the subtropical ridge created by Hurricane John should
allow Kristy to continue turning, resulting in a northward motion by
Thursday. Beyond that time, the model spread remains high, fueled by
a combination of uncertainty as to how much John and Kristy will
directly interact, and how much Kristy will respond to an
upper-level trough to the northwest. The GFS is a notable outlier on
the east side of the guidance envelope, and is the only model
showing Kristy wrapping around the circulation of John. For now, the
NHC forecast continues to downplay this possibility, and is a little
to the west of the multi-model consensus.

The intensity guidance spread is also high, ranging from the HWRF
which makes Kristy a hurricane, to the SHIPS and LGEM which forecast
only gradual weakening. Since the shear is forecast to decrease over
the next 12 to 24 hours, and Kristy will be moving away from the
cold wake of Hector and over warmer waters, at least some
strengthening seems likely. By the second half of the forecast
period, the cyclone will be passing over much colder SSTs and
through a drier environment, which should cause the cyclone to
steadily weaken and become a remnant low. The NHC forecast is now
close to the model consensus IVCN, which is higher this cycle.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 14.4N 129.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 15.0N 130.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 15.9N 130.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 16.8N 130.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 17.7N 130.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 19.8N 130.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 21.5N 131.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 22.0N 133.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-08-08 17:35

WTPZ33 KNHC 081433
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
800 AM PDT WED AUG 08 2018

...KRISTY TURNS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 129.3W
ABOUT 1395 MI...2245 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 129.3 WEST. KRISTY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H). A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.

...
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-08-08 17:35

WTPZ23 KNHC 081433 RRA
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
1500 UTC WED AUG 08 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 129.3W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 129.3W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 128.9W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 15.0N 130.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 15.9N 130.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 16.8N 130.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 17.7N 130.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 19.8N 130.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 21.5N 131.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 22.0N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 129.3W

2018-08-08 17:35

WTPZ23 KNHC 081433
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
1500 UTC WED AUG 08 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 129.3W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 129.3W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 128.9W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 15.0N 130.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 15.9N 130.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 16.8N 130.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 17.7N 130.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 19.8N 130.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 21.5N 131.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 22.0N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 129.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-08-08 11:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 080859 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
200 AM PDT WED AUG 08 2018

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT KRISTY IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED, WITH A
DRY SLOT WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION.
IN ADDITION THE CENTER IS ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF
DEEP CONVECTION. AN ARTIFACT OF CONTINUED SHEAR. A SCATTEROMETER
PASS REVEALED MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 35 KT, WHICH IS A FAIR BIT
BELOW THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT A
POSSIBLY GENEROUS 40 KT SINCE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE PAST
FEW HOURS.

SHEAR FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KRISTY IS
FORECAST IS RELAX IN A DAY OR SO, AND BY THAT TIME THE CYCLONE WILL
PROBABLY HAVE MIXED THE CURRENT DRY AIR INTRUSION. THUS SOME
RESTRENGTHENING IS SHOWN COMMENCING BEYOND 24 HOURS. THERE IS
ONLY A NARROW WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION, HOWEVER, SINCE BETWEEN
48-72 HOURS THE SSTS SHOULD BECOME RATHER MARGINAL WITH A POSSIBLE
INCREASE IN A SHEAR. THE GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN MARKEDLY FROM THE
LAST CYCLE, WITH MOST OF THE MODELS SURPRISINGLY SHOWING NO INCREASE
IN STRENGTH. THIS FORECAST WILL LOWER THE WINDS ABOUT 10 KT FROM
THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING DAYS 1-4, BUT IS STILL ABOUT 10 KT ABOVE THE
CONSENSUS AT THOSE TIME FRAMES SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT DOESN'T APPEAR
TO BE THAT HOSTILE.

NO CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/7 KT.
KRISTY SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD BY THIS EVENING AND THEN NORTHWARD
LATE THURSDAY AS A NARROW RIDGE IS ERODED AWAY TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE. WHILE SOME BINARY INTERACTION WITH HURRICANE JOHN IS

2018-08-08 11:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 080859
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018
200 AM PDT Wed Aug 08 2018

Satellite images indicate that Kristy is not well organized, with a
dry slot wrapping around the northwestern side of the circulation.
In addition the center is on the northwestern edge of an area of
deep convection; an artifact of continued shear. A scatterometer
pass revealed maximum winds of about 35 kt, which is a fair bit
below the satellite estimates. The initial wind speed is held at a
possibly generous 40 kt since convection has increased in the past
few hours.

Shear from an upper-level low to the north-northeast of Kristy is
forecast is relax in a day or so, and by that time the cyclone will
probably have mixed the current dry air intrusion. Thus some
restrengthening is shown commencing beyond 24 hours. There is
only a narrow window for intensification, however, since between
48-72 hours the SSTs should become rather marginal with a possible
increase in a shear. The guidance has come down markedly from the
last cycle, with most of the models surprisingly showing no increase
in strength. This forecast will lower the winds about 10 kt from
the previous one during days 1-4, but is still about 10 kt above the
consensus at those time frames since the environment doesn't appear
to be that hostile.

No change has been made to the initial motion estimate of 285/7 kt.
Kristy should turn northwestward by this evening and then northward
late Thursday as a narrow ridge is eroded away to the north of the
cyclone. While some binary interaction with Hurricane John is
possible, it seems like Kristy will be steered toward John, then
turn northwestward in about 96 hours due to weak ridging developing
between the cyclones. Model guidance is coming into better
agreement on this scenario, with the ECMWF and GFS solutions
converging toward the model consensus. The latest NHC forecast is
slow to a blend of the corrected-consensus guidance, and is very
close to the previous NHC track forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 14.2N 128.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 14.8N 129.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 15.5N 130.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 16.4N 130.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 17.3N 130.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 19.5N 130.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 21.5N 130.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 23.0N 132.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-08-08 11:31

WTPZ33 KNHC 080902
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
200 AM PDT WED AUG 08 2018

...KRISTY FORECAST TO RE-STRENGTHEN BY THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 128.5W
ABOUT 1355 MI...2180 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 128.5 WEST. KRISTY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H). A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST LATE TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO
THE NORTH ON FRIDAY, WITH THAT MOTION CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

...
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-08-08 11:31

WTPZ23 KNHC 080858 RRA
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
0900 UTC WED AUG 08 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 128.5W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 128.5W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 128.2W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 14.8N 129.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 15.5N 130.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.4N 130.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.3N 130.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.5N 130.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 21.5N 130.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 23.0N 132.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

2018-08-08 11:31

WTPZ23 KNHC 080858
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
0900 UTC WED AUG 08 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 128.5W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 128.5W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 128.2W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 14.8N 129.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 15.5N 130.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.4N 130.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.3N 130.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.5N 130.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 21.5N 130.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 23.0N 132.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 128.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-08-08 09:46

WTPZ23 KNHC 080348 RRA
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
0300 UTC WED AUG 08 2018

CORRECTED 12 FT SEAS

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 127.8W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 127.8W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 127.5W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 14.6N 128.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 15.4N 129.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.4N 130.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.2N 130.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.5N 129.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 22.0N 130.6W

2018-08-08 09:46

WTPZ23 KNHC 080348 CCA
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
0300 UTC WED AUG 08 2018

CORRECTED 12 FT SEAS

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 127.8W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 127.8W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 127.5W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 14.6N 128.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 15.4N 129.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.4N 130.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.2N 130.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.5N 129.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 22.0N 130.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 24.3N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 127.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

2018-08-08 09:46

WTNT82 EGRR 080406

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 08.08.2018

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ANALYSED POSITION : 39.8N 49.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.08.2018 0 39.8N 49.5W 1008 24
1200UTC 08.08.2018 12 41.0N 48.8W 1008 25
0000UTC 09.08.2018 24 43.1N 47.1W 1009 28
1200UTC 09.08.2018 36 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE HECTOR ANALYSED POSITION : 16.1N 150.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.08.2018 0 16.1N 150.2W 979 54
1200UTC 08.08.2018 12 16.1N 153.0W 981 58
0000UTC 09.08.2018 24 16.0N 156.1W 979 63
1200UTC 09.08.2018 36 16.0N 159.2W 979 61
0000UTC 10.08.2018 48 16.1N 162.2W 983 58
1200UTC 10.08.2018 60 16.4N 164.9W 985 57
0000UTC 11.08.2018 72 16.7N 167.6W 988 48
1200UTC 11.08.2018 84 17.2N 169.5W 988 62
0000UTC 12.08.2018 96 18.1N 171.5W 992 54
1200UTC 12.08.2018 108 19.4N 173.7W 996 46
0000UTC 13.08.2018 120 20.9N 175.8W 999 43
1200UTC 13.08.2018 132 23.1N 178.1W 1000 46
0000UTC 14.08.2018 144 25.5N 179.6E 999 49

HURRICANE JOHN ANALYSED POSITION : 18.9N 110.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.08.2018 0 18.9N 110.7W 964 73
1200UTC 08.08.2018 12 20.4N 112.2W 964 72
0000UTC 09.08.2018 24 22.0N 114.2W 956 75
1200UTC 09.08.2018 36 23.3N 116.3W 963 63
0000UTC 10.08.2018 48 24.8N 118.3W 973 59
1200UTC 10.08.2018 60 25.8N 120.0W 984 45
0000UTC 11.08.2018 72 26.7N 121.9W 993 36
1200UTC 11.08.2018 84 26.7N 123.3W 999 32
0000UTC 12.08.2018 96 26.5N 124.2W 1003 25
1200UTC 12.08.2018 108 26.6N 124.4W 1005 23
0000UTC 13.08.2018 120 27.0N 124.1W 1008 24
1200UTC 13.08.2018 132 27.7N 123.7W 1010 19
0000UTC 14.08.2018 144 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 127.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.08.2018 0 13.9N 127.5W 999 36
1200UTC 08.08.2018 12 14.2N 128.7W 999 34
0000UTC 09.08.2018 24 15.0N 129.8W 999 31
1200UTC 09.08.2018 36 15.9N 130.3W 999 34
0000UTC 10.08.2018 48 17.1N 130.5W 997 38
1200UTC 10.08.2018 60 18.3N 130.5W 997 38
0000UTC 11.08.2018 72 19.5N 131.0W 1000 36
1200UTC 11.08.2018 84 20.3N 131.7W 1003 32
0000UTC 12.08.2018 96 20.8N 132.6W 1005 28
1200UTC 12.08.2018 108 20.9N 133.8W 1008 24
0000UTC 13.08.2018 120 20.8N 135.2W 1009 25
1200UTC 13.08.2018 132 20.5N 136.4W 1011 22
0000UTC 14.08.2018 144 20.3N 137.4W 1012 22


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 080406

2018-08-08 09:46

WTNT80 EGRR 080406

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 08.08.2018

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ANALYSED POSITION : 39.8N 49.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.08.2018 39.8N 49.5W WEAK
12UTC 08.08.2018 41.0N 48.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.08.2018 43.1N 47.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.08.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE HECTOR ANALYSED POSITION : 16.1N 150.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.08.2018 16.1N 150.2W STRONG
12UTC 08.08.2018 16.1N 153.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.08.2018 16.0N 156.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.08.2018 16.0N 159.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.08.2018 16.1N 162.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.08.2018 16.4N 164.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.08.2018 16.7N 167.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.08.2018 17.2N 169.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.08.2018 18.1N 171.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.08.2018 19.4N 173.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.08.2018 20.9N 175.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.08.2018 23.1N 178.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.08.2018 25.5N 179.6E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

HURRICANE JOHN ANALYSED POSITION : 18.9N 110.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.08.2018 18.9N 110.7W STRONG
12UTC 08.08.2018 20.4N 112.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.08.2018 22.0N 114.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.08.2018 23.3N 116.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.08.2018 24.8N 118.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.08.2018 25.8N 120.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.08.2018 26.7N 121.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.08.2018 26.7N 123.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.08.2018 26.5N 124.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.08.2018 26.6N 124.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.08.2018 27.0N 124.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.08.2018 27.7N 123.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.08.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 127.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.08.2018 13.9N 127.5W MODERATE
12UTC 08.08.2018 14.2N 128.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.08.2018 15.0N 129.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.08.2018 15.9N 130.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.08.2018 17.1N 130.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.08.2018 18.3N 130.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.08.2018 19.5N 131.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.08.2018 20.3N 131.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.08.2018 20.8N 132.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.08.2018 20.9N 133.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.08.2018 20.8N 135.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.08.2018 20.5N 136.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.08.2018 20.3N 137.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 080406

2018-08-08 09:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 080232 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 07 2018

KRISTY HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED THIS EVENING. AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC LOW SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF KRISTY IS
PRODUCING MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR WHICH HAS DEGRADED THE
CYCLONE'S CLOUD PATTERN. A 2035 UTC AMSR2 OVERPASS REVEALED THAT
THE SURFACE CENTER WAS PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE NORTH OF THE
CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES. THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE DECREASED AS WELL, SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT.

STATISTICAL AND GLOBAL MODELS ALL SHOW THE UPPER LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST OF KRISTY WEAKENING AND LIFTING OUT IN 24 HOURS OR SO,
WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE CONDUCIVE UPPER WIND ENVIRONMENT FOR
INTENSIFICATION, AT LEAST THROUGH MID-PERIOD. AFTERWARDS, A
WEAKENING TREND SHOULD COMMENCE DUE TO AN INTRUDING DRIER/STABLE AIR
MASS AND COOLER OCEANIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE HWRF AND HCCA
SHOW KRISTY BECOMING A HURRICANE IN 48 HOURS, WHICH STILL SEEMS
QUITE REASONABLE AND IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST. ALL OF THE OTHER
GUIDANCE REACHES JUST BELOW 65 KT. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED PRIMARILY ON THESE TWO MODELS, AND INDICATES A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 65 KT IN 48 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/7 KT, AND KRISTY IS BEING
STEERED BY A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. A COMPLEX
SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN COMPRISED OF AN APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL STORM, AND JOHN TO
THE NORTHEAST, IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS

2018-08-08 09:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 080232
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018
800 PM PDT Tue Aug 07 2018

Kristy has become a little less organized this evening. An upper
tropospheric low situated to the northeast of Kristy is
producing moderate northwesterly shear which has degraded the
cyclone's cloud pattern. A 2035 UTC AMSR2 overpass revealed that
the surface center was partially exposed to the north of the
convective banding features. The subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB have decreased as well, so the initial
intensity for this advisory is lowered to 40 kt.

Statistical and global models all show the upper low to the
northeast of Kristy weakening and lifting out in 24 hours or so,
which should provide a more conducive upper wind environment for
intensification, at least through mid-period. Afterwards, a
weakening trend should commence due to an intruding drier/stable air
mass and cooler oceanic sea surface temperatures. The HWRF and HCCA
show Kristy becoming a hurricane in 48 hours, which still seems
quite reasonable and is reflected in the forecast. All of the other
guidance reaches just below 65 kt. The NHC intensity forecast is
based primarily on these two models, and indicates a peak
intensity of 65 kt in 48 hours.

The initial motion is estimated to be 285/7 kt, and Kristy is being
steered by a narrow mid-level ridge to the northeast. A complex
synoptic steering pattern comprised of an approaching deep-layer low
pressure system to the northwest of the tropical storm, and John to
the northeast, is forecast by most of the global and regional models
to weaken what's left of the ridge currently steering Kristy. The
increasing weakness in the subtropical ridge should cause Kristy
to turn northwestward and northward through day 4. At the end of
the period, a gradual turn toward the northwest around the
periphery of larger John's circulation. The ECMWF deterministic and
ensemble models continue to be outliers in the aforementioned
scenario due to less influence from the growing weakness to the
north and significantly less binary interaction with John. The
official forecast is similar to the previous one, with a slight
adjustment to the right and is basically in the middle of the HCCA
and TVCE consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 14.2N 127.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 14.6N 128.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 15.4N 129.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 16.4N 130.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 17.2N 130.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 19.5N 129.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 22.0N 130.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 24.3N 133.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-08-08 09:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 072033 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 07 2018

GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT KRISTY
HAS WELL-DEFINED CURVED BANDS, BUT THE CONVECTION IN THESE BANDS
HAS DECREASED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A RECENT ASCAT PASS
SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 40 KT. BASED ON THAT DATA AND DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AGAIN HELD AT 45 KT.

KRISTY HAS BEEN MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST DURING THE PAST 12
HOURS, AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/11 KT. THE MODELS
AGREE THAT A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY, BUT
THAT IS ABOUT ALL THEY AGREE ON FOR THE FUTURE TRACK OF KRISTY.
THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE MODELS ABOUT HOW THE STORM
WILL INTERACT WITH HURRICANE JOHN TO ITS NORTHEAST. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW KRISTY BEING PULLED NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF JOHN. ON THE OTHER HAND,
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LITTLE INTERACTION BETWEEN
THE TROPICAL CYCLONES, AND KEEPS KRISTY MOVING ON A WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PATH. THE NHC OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LIES
BETWEEN THESE SCENARIOS AND IS CLOSE TO THE RECENT RUN OF THE UKMET
MODEL. THIS FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE TO GET CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE TRACK FORECAST IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE
GIVEN THE VERY DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS.

KRISTY'S STRUGGLES ARE LIKELY DUE TO THE INFLUENCES OF DRY AIR AND
MODERATE SHEAR. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR DECREASING DURING

2018-08-08 09:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 072033
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018
200 PM PDT Tue Aug 07 2018

Geostationary satellite and microwave images indicate that Kristy
has well-defined curved bands, but the convection in these bands
has decreased during the past several hours. A recent ASCAT pass
showed maximum winds of about 40 kt. Based on that data and Dvorak
classifications, the initial intensity is again held at 45 kt.

Kristy has been moving just south of due west during the past 12
hours, and the initial motion estimate is 260/11 kt. The models
agree that a decrease in forward speed and a turn to the
west-northwest is expected to begin tonight or on Wednesday, but
that is about all they agree on for the future track of Kristy.
There remains significant spread in the models about how the storm
will interact with Hurricane John to its northeast. The GFS
continues to show Kristy being pulled northward and then
northeastward into the outer circulation of John. On the other hand,
the ECMWF has been consistent in showing little interaction between
the tropical cyclones, and keeps Kristy moving on a westward or
west-northwestward path. The NHC official track forecast lies
between these scenarios and is close to the recent run of the UKMET
model. This forecast has been adjusted to the north and east of the
previous one to get closer to the middle of the guidance envelope.
It should be noted that the track forecast is of low confidence
given the very different model solutions.

Kristy's struggles are likely due to the influences of dry air and
moderate shear. The SHIPS model shows the shear decreasing during
the next couple of days, which could allow the storm to gradually
strengthening during that time period. Beyond a couple of days,
however, cooler waters and a more stable airmass should end the
strengthening trend and result in weakening. The NHC intensity
forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies close to
the HCCA model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 13.7N 127.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 13.9N 128.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 14.5N 129.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 15.4N 129.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 16.4N 130.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 18.5N 130.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 21.0N 130.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 23.0N 132.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-08-08 09:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 071442 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 07 2018

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF KRISTY IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED WITH
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE
NOW 3.0/45 KT, AND THIS DATA IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
EARLIER ASCAT PASS THAT WAS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
THEREFORE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT. KRISTY IS
WITHIN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, AND MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING. THE NHC FORECAST BRINGS KRISTY TO HURRICANE
STATUS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WARM
WATERS. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE CIRCULATION WILL
BEGIN TO BE AFFECTED BY COOLER WATERS, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
WEAKENING.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE WEST OR 270
DEGREES AT 8 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO
IS FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD SINCE THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
DEEP EASTERLIES. THEREAFTER, THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE INTERRUPTED
BY THE LARGER CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE JOHN PASSING TO THE NORTH OF
KRISTY, AND THE CYCLONE WILL MOST LIKELY TURN NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE.
THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE BECOMES LARGE AFTER 24 TO 36 HOURS
WITH THE ECMWF MODEL KEEPING KRISTY ON A WEST-NORTHWEST PATH
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A NORTHWARD MOTION AS KRISTY INTERACTS WITH
JOHN. THE NHC FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO OPTIONS AND
VERY CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG RANGE TRACK FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 13.8N 126.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

2018-08-08 09:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 071442
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018
800 AM PDT Tue Aug 07 2018

The cloud pattern of Kristy is a little better organized with
several clusters of deep convection. The Dvorak T-numbers are
now 3.0/45 kt, and this data is now in better agreement with the
earlier ASCAT pass that was mentioned in the previous discussion.
Therefore, the initial intensity is kept at 45 kt. Kristy is
within a low shear environment, and most of the guidance indicates
gradual strengthening. The NHC forecast brings Kristy to hurricane
status in a couple of days while the cyclone remains over warm
waters. By the end of the forecast period, the circulation will
begin to be affected by cooler waters, which should result in
weakening.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west or 270
degrees at 8 kt. The track forecast during the first 24 hours or so
is fairly straightforward since the cyclone is embedded within
deep easterlies. Thereafter, the easterly flow will be interrupted
by the larger circulation of Hurricane John passing to the north of
Kristy, and the cyclone will most likely turn northward in response.
The spread in the guidance becomes large after 24 to 36 hours
with the ECMWF model keeping Kristy on a west-northwest path
while the GFS shows a northward motion as Kristy interacts with
John. The NHC forecast is in the middle of these two options and
very closely follows the multi-model consensus. It should be
noted that there is low confidence in the long range track forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 13.8N 126.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 13.9N 127.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 14.2N 128.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 14.8N 130.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 16.0N 130.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 18.0N 130.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 20.5N 131.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 22.5N 134.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-08-08 09:31

WTPZ33 KNHC 080231
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 07 2018

...KRISTY TEMPORARILY BECOMES POORLY ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 127.8W
ABOUT 1315 MI...2115 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 127.8 WEST. KRISTY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H). A TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. A GRADUAL NORTHWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED BY THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND KRISTY COULD
BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN BY FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

...
FORECASTER ROBERTS

2018-08-08 09:31

WTPZ33 KNHC 072032
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 07 2018

...KRISTY CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH BUT STILL FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 127.1W
ABOUT 1290 MI...2080 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 127.1 WEST. KRISTY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H). A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND KRISTY COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
BY FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB (29.53 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

...
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-08-08 09:31

WTPZ33 KNHC 071441
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 07 2018

...KRISTY FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 126.5W
ABOUT 1255 MI...2020 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 126.5 WEST. KRISTY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). THE STORM SHOULD
MOVE WESTWARD TODAY, GRADUALLY TURNING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AND NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND KRISTY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE
IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB (29.53 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.

...
FORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI

2018-08-08 09:31

WTPZ23 KNHC 080230 RRA
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
0300 UTC WED AUG 08 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 127.8W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 127.8W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 127.5W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 14.6N 128.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 15.4N 129.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.4N 130.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.2N 130.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.5N 129.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 22.0N 130.6W

2018-08-08 09:31

WTPZ23 KNHC 080230
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
0300 UTC WED AUG 08 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 127.8W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 127.8W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 127.5W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 14.6N 128.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 15.4N 129.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.4N 130.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.2N 130.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.5N 129.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 22.0N 130.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 24.3N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 127.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

2018-08-08 09:31

WTPZ23 KNHC 072032 RRA
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
2100 UTC TUE AUG 07 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 127.1W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 50SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 127.1W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 126.8W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 13.9N 128.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 14.5N 129.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 15.4N 129.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.4N 130.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.5N 130.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 21.0N 130.8W

2018-08-08 09:31

WTPZ23 KNHC 072032
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
2100 UTC TUE AUG 07 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 127.1W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 50SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 127.1W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 126.8W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 13.9N 128.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 14.5N 129.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 15.4N 129.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.4N 130.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.5N 130.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 21.0N 130.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 23.0N 132.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 127.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-08-08 09:31

WTPZ23 KNHC 071441 RRA
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
1500 UTC TUE AUG 07 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 126.5W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 126.5W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 126.1W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 13.9N 127.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 14.2N 128.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 14.8N 130.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.0N 130.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.0N 130.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 20.5N 131.5W

2018-08-08 09:31

WTPZ23 KNHC 071441
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
1500 UTC TUE AUG 07 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 126.5W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 126.5W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 126.1W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 13.9N 127.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 14.2N 128.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 14.8N 130.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.0N 130.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.0N 130.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 20.5N 131.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 22.5N 134.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 126.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-08-08 09:31

WTNT82 EGRR 071604

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 07.08.2018

HURRICANE HECTOR ANALYSED POSITION : 16.1N 147.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.08.2018 0 16.1N 147.1W 979 59
0000UTC 08.08.2018 12 16.1N 150.1W 981 57
1200UTC 08.08.2018 24 15.9N 153.0W 981 58
0000UTC 09.08.2018 36 15.8N 155.8W 979 62
1200UTC 09.08.2018 48 16.1N 158.5W 977 61
0000UTC 10.08.2018 60 16.4N 161.7W 979 60
1200UTC 10.08.2018 72 16.7N 164.8W 985 53
0000UTC 11.08.2018 84 16.9N 168.1W 988 49
1200UTC 11.08.2018 96 16.7N 170.6W 988 56
0000UTC 12.08.2018 108 17.0N 172.5W 988 61
1200UTC 12.08.2018 120 17.7N 174.1W 992 58
0000UTC 13.08.2018 132 18.9N 176.1W 997 47
1200UTC 13.08.2018 144 20.5N 178.1W 998 44

HURRICANE JOHN ANALYSED POSITION : 18.1N 109.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.08.2018 0 18.1N 109.5W 968 77
0000UTC 08.08.2018 12 19.5N 111.3W 962 71
1200UTC 08.08.2018 24 21.0N 113.2W 956 73
0000UTC 09.08.2018 36 22.3N 115.1W 953 72
1200UTC 09.08.2018 48 23.8N 117.0W 963 62
0000UTC 10.08.2018 60 25.3N 119.1W 973 56
1200UTC 10.08.2018 72 26.2N 121.0W 985 43
0000UTC 11.08.2018 84 27.0N 122.3W 993 36
1200UTC 11.08.2018 96 27.3N 123.4W 999 29
0000UTC 12.08.2018 108 27.5N 123.8W 1003 28
1200UTC 12.08.2018 120 27.5N 123.8W 1006 24
0000UTC 13.08.2018 132 27.6N 123.0W 1008 21
1200UTC 13.08.2018 144 28.2N 121.9W 1011 17

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY ANALYSED POSITION : 14.8N 125.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.08.2018 0 14.8N 125.6W 1005 27
0000UTC 08.08.2018 12 15.0N 127.0W 1004 22
1200UTC 08.08.2018 24 15.3N 128.2W 1004 23
0000UTC 09.08.2018 36 15.5N 129.5W 1004 23
1200UTC 09.08.2018 48 16.1N 130.1W 1005 24
0000UTC 10.08.2018 60 17.1N 130.3W 1005 26
1200UTC 10.08.2018 72 18.4N 130.1W 1006 29
0000UTC 11.08.2018 84 19.8N 130.1W 1007 25
1200UTC 11.08.2018 96 21.0N 130.1W 1010 20
0000UTC 12.08.2018 108 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 9.9N 158.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 09.08.2018 36 9.8N 158.3W 1004 22
1200UTC 09.08.2018 48 11.2N 157.3W 1003 55
0000UTC 10.08.2018 60 13.8N 157.3W 1000 60
1200UTC 10.08.2018 72 16.5N 159.6W 1003 53
0000UTC 11.08.2018 84 18.9N 163.1W 1006 47
1200UTC 11.08.2018 96 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 071604

2018-08-08 09:31

WTNT80 EGRR 071604

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 07.08.2018

HURRICANE HECTOR ANALYSED POSITION : 16.1N 147.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.08.2018 16.1N 147.1W STRONG
00UTC 08.08.2018 16.1N 150.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.08.2018 15.9N 153.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.08.2018 15.8N 155.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.08.2018 16.1N 158.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.08.2018 16.4N 161.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.08.2018 16.7N 164.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.08.2018 16.9N 168.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.08.2018 16.7N 170.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.08.2018 17.0N 172.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.08.2018 17.7N 174.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.08.2018 18.9N 176.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.08.2018 20.5N 178.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

HURRICANE JOHN ANALYSED POSITION : 18.1N 109.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.08.2018 18.1N 109.5W STRONG
00UTC 08.08.2018 19.5N 111.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.08.2018 21.0N 113.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.08.2018 22.3N 115.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.08.2018 23.8N 117.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.08.2018 25.3N 119.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.08.2018 26.2N 121.0W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 11.08.2018 27.0N 122.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.08.2018 27.3N 123.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.08.2018 27.5N 123.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.08.2018 27.5N 123.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.08.2018 27.6N 123.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.08.2018 28.2N 121.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY ANALYSED POSITION : 14.8N 125.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.08.2018 14.8N 125.6W WEAK
00UTC 08.08.2018 15.0N 127.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.08.2018 15.3N 128.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.08.2018 15.5N 129.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.08.2018 16.1N 130.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.08.2018 17.1N 130.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.08.2018 18.4N 130.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.08.2018 19.8N 130.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.08.2018 21.0N 130.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.08.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 9.9N 158.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 09.08.2018 9.8N 158.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.08.2018 11.2N 157.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.08.2018 13.8N 157.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.08.2018 16.5N 159.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.08.2018 18.9N 163.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.08.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 071604

2018-08-08 09:16

WTPZ43 KNHC 070850 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 07 2018

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE HAS RAPIDLY BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED, WITH A DISTINCT CURVED BAND PATTERN NOW APPARENT. A
TIMELY SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED PEAK WINDS OF 40-45 KT, SO THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 45 KT. CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST WHILE THE STORM REMAINS OVER WARM WATERS WITH LIGHT OR
MODERATE SHEAR. WHILE THERE IS NO GUIDANCE INDICATING ANYTHING BUT
SLOW STRENGTHENING, SOME CAUTION SHOULD BE ADVISED SINCE KRISTY HAS
ALREADY OVERACHIEVED. THE WIND SPEED FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE, AND IS CLOSE TO THE HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS.
WEAKENING SHOULD START BY DAY 4 AS THE STORM MOVES OVER COOLER
WATERS.

KRISTY APPEARS TO BE MOVING AT 265/10 KT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ON A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HOLDING STEADY TO THE NORTH
OF THE CYCLONE FOR A DAY OR SO, CAUSING A WESTWARD MOTION. AFTER
THAT TIME, THE AGREEMENT BECOMES QUITE POOR DUE TO LARGE
UNCERTAINTIES OVER HOW FAST THE RIDGE ERODES, PARTIALLY DUE TO THE
CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE JOHN. THE GFS SHOWS A FAST EROSION AND A
TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF KRISTY, WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
RIDGE IN PLACE, LEADING TO THE MODELS BEING A .MERE. 1200 MILES
APART ON THE DAY-5 FORECAST OF KRISTY. INTERESTINGLY, THE MODEL
CONSENSUS DIDN'T CHANGE MUCH, SO I'VE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST
BASICALLY THE SAME, WITH THE CAVEAT THAT THIS IS OBVIOUSLY A
LOW-CONFIDENCE PREDICTION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 14.3N 125.1W 45 KT 50 MPH

2018-08-08 09:16

WTPZ43 KNHC 070850
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018
200 AM PDT Tue Aug 07 2018

Satellite images indicate that the cyclone has rapidly become better
organized, with a distinct curved band pattern now apparent. A
timely scatterometer pass indicated peak winds of 40-45 kt, so the
initial wind speed is set to 45 kt. Continued intensification is
forecast while the storm remains over warm waters with light or
moderate shear. While there is no guidance indicating anything but
slow strengthening, some caution should be advised since Kristy has
already overachieved. The wind speed forecast is raised from the
previous one, and is close to the HFIP corrected consensus.
Weakening should start by day 4 as the storm moves over cooler
waters.

Kristy appears to be moving at 265/10 kt. Model guidance is in
decent agreement on a subtropical ridge holding steady to the north
of the cyclone for a day or so, causing a westward motion. After
that time, the agreement becomes quite poor due to large
uncertainties over how fast the ridge erodes, partially due to the
circulation of Hurricane John. The GFS shows a fast erosion and a
turn to the north and northeast of Kristy, while the ECMWF keeps the
ridge in place, leading to the models being a mere 1200 miles
apart on the day-5 forecast of Kristy. Interestingly, the model
consensus didn't change much, so I've decided to keep the forecast
basically the same, with the caveat that this is obviously a
low-confidence prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 14.3N 125.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 14.3N 126.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 14.5N 128.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 14.9N 129.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 15.6N 130.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 17.5N 130.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 19.5N 131.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 22.0N 133.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-08-08 09:16

WTPZ33 KNHC 070848
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 07 2018

...TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORMS, ALREADY WITH 50-MPH WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 125.1W
ABOUT 1155 MI...1860 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 125.1 WEST. KRISTY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND KRISTY SHOULD
MOVE WESTWARD TODAY, GRADUALLY TURNING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AND NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY.

SATELLITE-DREIVED WIND DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KRISTY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB (29.53 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

...
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-08-08 09:16

WTPZ23 KNHC 070848 RRA
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
0900 UTC TUE AUG 07 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 125.1W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 125.1W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 124.5W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 14.3N 126.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 14.5N 128.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 14.9N 129.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 15.6N 130.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.5N 130.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 19.5N 131.0W

2018-08-08 09:16

WTPZ23 KNHC 070848
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
0900 UTC TUE AUG 07 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 125.1W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 125.1W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 124.5W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 14.3N 126.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 14.5N 128.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 14.9N 129.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 15.6N 130.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.5N 130.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 19.5N 131.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 22.0N 133.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 125.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-08-07 09:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 070436 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
1000 PM PDT MON AUG 06 2018

MICROWAVE DATA FROM THIS EVENING INDICATE THAT A SMALL LOW PRESSURE
AREA HAS FORMED WITHIN AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER (INVEST 94E)
THAT WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE DATA INDICATE
THAT THE WELL-DEFINED LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A GROWING BALL OF
CONVECTION, ALONG WITH TIGHT BANDING NEAR THE CENTER. THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED IS SET TO 30 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH A SPECIAL 0400 UTC
CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL THE SYSTEM PASSES OVER COOLER WATERS.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION DUE TO
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR, ALTHOUGH SOME CAUTION SHOULD BE ADVISED SINCE
THE DEPRESSION IS FAIRLY SMALL.

AN UNCERTAIN ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 270/9 KT. THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE SYSTEM
WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, THEN THE FORECAST GETS TRICKY.
THE GFS-BASED GUIDANCE IS SHOWING HURRICANE JOHN WEAKENING THE
RIDGE ENOUGH TO CAUSE A NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TURN OF THE
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THURSDAY, WHILE THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE
SHOW THE SYSTEM AVOIDING ANY BINARY INTERACTION WITH JOHN, AND
CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. WITH SUCH WIDELY DIVERGENT GUIDANCE,
THE FIRST FORECAST WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS, AND PERHAPS
LATER GUIDANCE CAN NAIL DOWN THE SPECIFICS OF ANY POLEWARD TURN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0500Z 14.5N 124.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 14.4N 125.4W 40 KT 45 MPH

2018-08-07 09:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 070436
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Special Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018
1000 PM PDT Mon Aug 06 2018

Microwave data from this evening indicate that a small low pressure
area has formed within an area of disturbed weather (Invest 94E)
that we have been monitoring for several days. The data indicate
that the well-defined low is embedded within a growing ball of
convection, along with tight banding near the center. The initial
wind speed is set to 30 kt in accordance with a special 0400 UTC
classification from TAFB. Gradual strengthening is forecast over
the next couple of days until the system passes over cooler waters.
Most of the guidance is indicating only slow intensification due to
northeasterly shear, although some caution should be advised since
the depression is fairly small.

An uncertain estimate of initial motion is 270/9 kt. The
subtropical ridge to the north is expected to steer the system
westward for the next day or two, then the forecast gets tricky.
The GFS-based guidance is showing Hurricane John weakening the
ridge enough to cause a northward or north-northeastward turn of the
new tropical cyclone by Thursday, while the ECMWF and its ensemble
show the system avoiding any binary interaction with John, and
continuing west-northwestward. With such widely divergent guidance,
the first forecast will stay close to the consensus, and perhaps
later guidance can nail down the specifics of any poleward turn.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0500Z 14.5N 124.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 14.4N 125.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 14.4N 127.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 14.7N 128.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 15.2N 129.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 17.0N 130.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 19.5N 131.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 22.0N 132.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-08-07 09:31

WTPZ33 KNHC 070435
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
1000 PM PDT MON AUG 06 2018

...DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC, NO THREAT TO
LAND...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM PDT...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 124.3W
ABOUT 1105 MI...1780 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM PDT (0500 UTC), THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH,
LONGITUDE 124.3 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR
10 MPH (17 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FORECAST ON
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY
AND INTENSIFY SLOWLY AFTER THAT TIME.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

..
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-08-07 09:31

WTPZ23 KNHC 070434
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018
0500 UTC TUE AUG 07 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 124.3W AT 07/0500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 124.3W AT 07/0500Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 123.5W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 14.4N 125.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 14.4N 127.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 14.7N 128.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 15.2N 129.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.0N 130.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 19.5N 131.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 22.0N 132.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 124.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

..
FORECASTER BLAKE