Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for LANE-18
in United States

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2018-08-29 03:31

WTPN31 PHNC 290400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E (LANE) WARNING NR 059
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 19.3N 168.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 168.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 21.0N 168.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 23.0N 169.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
290400Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 168.4W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E (LANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z
IS 8 FEET.//
NNNN

2018-08-29 03:31

WTPA42 PHFO 290238 RRA
TCDCP2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 59
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
500 PM HST TUE AUG 28 2018

VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME ELONGATED
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AND LESS TIGHTLY WOUND. SINCE 2 PM,
SOME LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE CENTER HAVE DISSIPATED, MAKING THE CENTER
HARD TO LOCATE VERY PRECISELY. THE COLD, HIGH CLOUDS NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTER HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM, DECREASE IN AREA AND DRIFT
FARTHER FROM THE CENTER. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM HFO AND
SAB WERE 1.5/25 KT. JTWC CALLED THE SYSTEM TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY. THE
LATEST CIMSS ADT WAS 1.5/25 KT. LANE IS NOW A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT
LOW. THIS WILL BE OUR LAST SET OF ADVISORIES ON THE SYSTEM.

OUR FORECAST REASONING REMAINS THE SAME. THE CIRCULATION AROUND A
LOW ALOFT NEAR 21N 171W CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG SOUTHWEST
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER LANE. THE CIMSS ESTIMATE AT 0000 UTC WAS
47.5 KT OVER LANE. WITH CONVECTION SHEARING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST,
THE REMNANT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. A NORTH-SOUTH LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH IS DEEPENING NEAR 170W AND THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING A NEW EXTRATROPICAL SURFACE LOW FORMING WITHIN THE
TROUGH TONIGHT NEAR 30N 170W.

LANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH THIS EVENING, THEN CURVE SLIGHTLY
TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THAT MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
UNTIL WHATEVER MIGHT BE LEFT OF LANE IS ABSORBED INTO THE
EXTRATROPICAL LOW DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 19.5N 168.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 29/1200Z 21.0N 168.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

2018-08-29 03:31

WTPA42 PHFO 290238
TCDCP2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lane Discussion Number 59
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
500 PM HST Tue Aug 28 2018

Visible imagery shows the low level center has become elongated
from northeast to southwest and less tightly wound. Since 2 PM,
some low clouds near the center have dissipated, making the center
hard to locate very precisely. The cold, high clouds northeast of
the center have continued to warm, decrease in area and drift
farther from the center. Subjective Dvorak estimates from HFO and
SAB were 1.5/25 kt. JTWC called the system too weak to classify. The
latest CIMSS ADT was 1.5/25 kt. Lane is now a post-tropical remnant
low. This will be our last set of advisories on the system.

Our forecast reasoning remains the same. The circulation around a
low aloft near 21N 171W continues to produce strong southwest
vertical wind shear over Lane. The CIMSS estimate at 0000 UTC was
47.5 kt over Lane. With convection shearing off to the northeast,
the remnant low will continue to weaken. A north-south low-level
trough is deepening near 170W and the global models remain in good
agreement showing a new extratropical surface low forming within the
trough tonight near 30N 170W.

Lane is forecast to move north this evening, then curve slightly
toward the north northwest. That motion is expected to continue
until whatever might be left of Lane is absorbed into the
extratropical low developing to the north.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 19.5N 168.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 29/1200Z 21.0N 168.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 30/0000Z 23.0N 169.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 30/1200Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Donaldson

2018-08-29 03:31

WTPA32 PHFO 290233
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 59
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
500 PM HST TUE AUG 28 2018

...LANE WEAKENS TO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 168.3W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SSW OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 575 MI...930 KM WSW OF BARKING SANDS HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE THE
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS FROM WFO HONOLULU.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LANE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 168.3 WEST. THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. THE
REMNANT LOW WILL TURN SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST BEFORE THE
SYSTEM DISSIPATES WITHIN 36 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH (45 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED BY A NEW LOW
FORMING TO THE NORTH.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

...
FORECASTER DONALDSON

2018-08-29 03:31

WTPA22 PHFO 290232
TCMCP2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 59
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
0300 UTC WED AUG 29 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE THE
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS FROM WFO HONOLULU.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 168.3W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 168.3W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 168.3W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.0N 168.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.0N 169.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 168.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM

..
FORECASTER DONALDSON

2018-08-28 22:31

WTPN31 PHNC 282200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E (LANE) WARNING NR 058
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 18.6N 168.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6N 168.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 20.0N 168.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 21.5N 169.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 24.0N 170.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
282200Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 168.3W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E (LANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 139 NM
NORTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z
IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290400Z, 291000Z, 291600Z AND 292200Z.//
NNNN

2018-08-28 21:31

WTPA42 PHFO 282047 RRA
TCDCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 58
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1100 AM HST TUE AUG 28 2018

THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER OF LANE REMAINED EXPOSED AND EASY TO TRACK
OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVED SLOWLY WEST NORTHWEST. THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER, BUT THE CONVECTION HAS SLOWLY SHIFTED
FARTHER AWAY. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME
LESS TIGHTLY WOUND. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 1.5/25 KT
FROM HFO SAB, AND JTWC, AND THE LATEST CIMSS ADT WAS 1.9/29 KT.
ALTHOUGH LANE IS CLEARLY NOT A VERY STRONG SYSTEM, A FAIRLY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS BETWEEN LANE AND A 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH
FAR NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION. I HAVE KEPT LANE AS A 30 KT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY.

OUR FORECAST REASONING REMAINS THE SAME. THE CIRCULATION AROUND A
LOW ALOFT NEAR 21N 172W IS PRODUCING STRONG SOUTHWEST VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OVER LANE. THE CIMSS ESTIMATE AT 1800 UTC WAS 47 KT OVER LANE.
WITH CONVECTION SHEARING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF LANE, THE
DEPRESSION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. A NORTH-SOUTH LOW-LEVEL TROUGH
IS DEEPENING NEAR 170W AND THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING A NEW EXTRATROPICAL SURFACE LOW FORMING WITHIN THE TROUGH BY
THIS EVENING NEAR 30N 170W.

LANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THAT MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS
LANE WEAKENS TO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. WHATEVER
MIGHT BE LEFT OF LANE IS FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED WITHIN THE
EXTRATROPICAL LOW DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

2018-08-28 21:31

WTPA42 PHFO 282047
TCDCP2

Tropical Depression Lane Discussion Number 58
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1100 AM HST Tue Aug 28 2018

The low-cloud center of Lane remained exposed and easy to track
overnight as it moved slowly west northwest. Thunderstorms persist
northeast of the center, but the convection has slowly shifted
farther away. Visible imagery shows the low level center has become
less tightly wound. Subjective Dvorak estimates came in at 1.5/25 kt
from HFO SAB, and JTWC, and the latest CIMSS ADT was 1.9/29 kt.
Although Lane is clearly not a very strong system, a fairly tight
pressure gradient remains between Lane and a 1035 mb surface high
far northeast of the depression. I have kept Lane as a 30 kt
tropical depression for this advisory.

Our forecast reasoning remains the same. The circulation around a
low aloft near 21N 172W is producing strong southwest vertical wind
shear over Lane. The CIMSS estimate at 1800 UTC was 47 kt over Lane.
With convection shearing off to the northeast of Lane, the
depression will continue to weaken. A north-south low-level trough
is deepening near 170W and the global models are in good agreement
showing a new extratropical surface low forming within the trough by
this evening near 30N 170W.

Lane is forecast to move northwest this afternoon with a turn toward
the north northwest tonight. That motion is expected to continue as
Lane weakens to a post-tropical remnant low later today. Whatever
might be left of Lane is forecast to be absorbed within the
extratropical low developing to the north.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 19.0N 168.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 20.0N 168.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 29/1800Z 21.5N 169.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 30/0600Z 24.0N 170.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Donaldson

2018-08-28 21:31

WTPA32 PHFO 282043
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 58
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1100 AM HST TUE AUG 28 2018

...LANE WEAKENS SLOWLY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 168.5W
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SSW OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 600 MI...970 KM WSW OF BARKING SANDS HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 168.5 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H).
LANE WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWEST TODAY, THEN TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH NORTHWEST. THAT MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANE
BECOMES ABSORBED INTO A DEVELOPING EXTRATROPICAL LOW WITHIN 48
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST. LANE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY AND DISSIPATE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

...
FORECASTER DONALDSON

2018-08-28 21:31

WTPA22 PHFO 282038
TCMCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 58
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
2100 UTC TUE AUG 28 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 168.5W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 168.5W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 168.1W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.0N 168.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.5N 169.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 24.0N 170.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 168.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

..
FORECASTER DONALDSON

2018-08-28 16:31

WTPN31 PHNC 281600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E (LANE) WARNING NR 057
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 18.6N 168.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6N 168.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 20.0N 169.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 21.8N 169.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
281600Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 168.5W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E (LANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 139 NM
NORTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 282200Z, 290400Z AND 291000.//
NNNN

2018-08-28 15:31

WTPA42 PHFO 281454 RRA
TCDCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 57
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
500 AM HST TUE AUG 28 2018

OVERNIGHT GOES-15 FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY ALONG WITH A FEW VIIRS
IMAGES AND A MONDAY EVENING SCATSAT PASS SHOW THAT THE EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF LANE HAS STARTED TRACKING
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST, AND HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY ELONGATED AND
INDISTINCT DURING THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, FOR THE THIRD NIGHT IN A
ROW, DESPITE VERY STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ESTIMATED AT 57 KT BY
CIMSS, LANE MANAGED TO PRODUCE A SUBSTANTIAL AND PERSISTENT BURST OF
DEEP CONVECTION JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC, WHICH KEPT THE
SYSTEM CLASSIFIABLE FOR THIS CYCLE. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 1.5/25 KT FROM HFO AND SAB, AND
2.0/30 KT FROM JTWC, AND THE LATEST CIMSS ADT HAS INCREASED TO
1.9/29 KT IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP CONVECTION NE OF THE CENTER. THE
OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS SAMPLED ONLY THE EASTERN PART OF LANE'S
CIRCULATION, BUT DID FIND A SMALL AREA OF 30 KT WINDS THERE. WE HAVE
THEREFORE MAINTAINED LANE AS A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS
ADVISORY.

WITH THE ANTICIPATED TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NOW APPARENTLY
UNDERWAY, THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SET AT 290/9 KT.
LANE IS NOW BEGINNING TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG LOW ALOFT
WHICH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CENTERED NEAR 22N 172W. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LANE BEING PICKED UP BY A DEVELOPING
LOW-LEVEL TROUGH INDUCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH, WITH THE DEPRESSION
EXPECTED TO TURN NW THEN NNW LATER TODAY. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK, AND REMAINS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF

2018-08-28 15:31

WTPA42 PHFO 281454
TCDCP2

Tropical Depression Lane Discussion Number 57
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
500 AM HST Tue Aug 28 2018

Overnight GOES-15 fog product imagery along with a few VIIRS
images and a Monday evening SCATSAT pass show that the exposed low
level circulation center (LLCC) of Lane has started tracking
to the west-northwest, and has become increasingly elongated and
indistinct during the night. However, for the third night in a
row, despite very strong vertical wind shear estimated at 57 kt by
CIMSS, Lane managed to produce a substantial and persistent burst of
deep convection just to the northeast of the LLCC, which kept the
system classifiable for this cycle. Subjective Dvorak current
intensity estimates came in at 1.5/25 kt from HFO and SAB, and
2.0/30 kt from JTWC, and the latest CIMSS ADT has increased to
1.9/29 kt in response to the deep convection NE of the center. The
overnight ASCAT pass sampled only the eastern part of Lane's
circulation, but did find a small area of 30 kt winds there. We have
therefore maintained Lane as a 30 kt tropical depression for this
advisory.

With the anticipated turn toward the northwest now apparently
underway, the initial motion for this advisory is set at 290/9 kt.
Lane is now beginning to feel the influence of a strong low aloft
which water vapor imagery shows centered near 22N 172W. Model
guidance continues to show Lane being picked up by a developing
low-level trough induced by the upper trough, with the depression
expected to turn NW then NNW later today. The new forecast track is
very similar to the previous track, and remains on the left side of
the guidance envelope in best agreement with the ECMWF.

Very strong shear is forecast to continue along the forecast track
of Lane during the next couple of days. The new intensity forecast
anticipates that Lane will become a remnant low later today as
the LLCC continues to become less organized, and the current deep
convection will likely wane as it has during the past couple of
daytime periods. The remnant low will then be absorbed within 36
hours into a larger extratropical low forecast to develop farther to
the north.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 18.8N 168.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 20.0N 169.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 29/1200Z 21.8N 169.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Jacobson

2018-08-28 15:31

WTPA32 PHFO 281438
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 57
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
500 AM HST TUE AUG 28 2018

...LANE HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 168.5W
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SSW OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM WSW OF BARKING SANDS HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 168.5 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. LANE IS
FORECAST TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST THEN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TODAY
INTO TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LANE IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. THE REMNANT LOW IS
THEN EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY, AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO
A DEVELOPING EXTRATROPICAL LOW FARTHER TO THE NORTH.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

...
FORECASTER JACOBSON

2018-08-28 15:31

WTPA22 PHFO 281437
TCMCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 57
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1500 UTC TUE AUG 28 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 168.5W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 168.5W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 168.1W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.0N 169.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.8N 169.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 168.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

..
FORECASTER JACOBSON

2018-08-28 09:31

WTPN31 PHNC 281000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E (LANE) WARNING NR 056
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 18.4N 167.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4N 167.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 19.0N 168.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 20.3N 168.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 23.0N 169.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
281000Z POSITION NEAR 18.6N 167.4W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E (LANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 176 NM
NORTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z
IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281600Z, 282200Z, 290400Z AND 291000Z.//
NNNN

2018-08-28 09:31

WTPA42 PHFO 280853 RRA
TCDCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 56
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1100 PM HST MON AUG 27 2018

THE LAST VISIBLE HIMAWARI IMAGES OF THE EVENING ALONG WITH MORE
RECENT GOES-15 FOG PRODUCT IMAGES CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF LANE TRACKING WESTWARD. INFRARED
IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY SMALL, SCATTERED AND SHORT-LIVED PUFFS OF DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THESE ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED
FROM 50 NM NW TO OVER 100 NM NE AND E OF THE CENTER. SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 2.0/30 KT FROM HFO AND
JTWC, AND 1.5/25 KT FROM SAB, WHILE FINAL T-NUMBERS WERE 1.0 TO 1.5
OR 25 KT ACROSS THE BOARD. THE LATEST CIMSS ADT IS ALSO 1.5/25 KT.
WE HAVE CONSERVATIVELY MAINTAINED LANE AS A 30 KT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY, WHICH MAY BE GENEROUS.

INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SET AT 270/6 KT. A STRONG
LOWER/MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF LANE HAS STEERED THE CYCLONE
GENERALLY TOWARD THE WSW DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL
BE CHANGING SOON, AS LANE CONTINUES TO APPROACH A STRONG LOW ALOFT
WHICH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CENTERED NEAR 23N 172W. MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS LANE BEING PICKED UP BY A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL TROUGH
INDUCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH, WITH THE DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO TURN NW
THEN NNW DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK, AND IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF.

UW-CIMSS DIAGNOSES ALMOST 60 KT OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER LANE,
AS CONFIRMED BY SATELLITE ANIMATIONS WHICH SHOW THE TOPS OF ANY

2018-08-28 09:31

WTPA42 PHFO 280853
TCDCP2

Tropical Depression Lane Discussion Number 56
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1100 PM HST Mon Aug 27 2018

The last visible Himawari images of the evening along with more
recent GOES-15 fog product images continue to depict the exposed low
level circulation center (LLCC) of Lane tracking westward. Infrared
imagery shows only small, scattered and short-lived puffs of deep
convection in the northern semicircle. These are currently located
from 50 nm NW to over 100 nm NE and E of the center. Subjective
Dvorak current intensity estimates came in at 2.0/30 kt from HFO and
JTWC, and 1.5/25 kt from SAB, while final T-numbers were 1.0 to 1.5
or 25 kt across the board. The latest CIMSS ADT is also 1.5/25 kt.
We have conservatively maintained Lane as a 30 kt tropical
depression for this advisory, which may be generous.

Initial motion for this advisory is set at 270/6 kt. A strong
lower/mid level ridge to the north of Lane has steered the cyclone
generally toward the WSW during the past couple of days. This will
be changing soon, as Lane continues to approach a strong low aloft
which water vapor imagery shows centered near 23N 172W. Model
guidance shows Lane being picked up by a developing low-level trough
induced by the upper trough, with the depression expected to turn NW
then NNW during the next 36 hours. The new forecast track is similar
to the previous track, and is on the left side of the guidance
envelope in best agreement with the ECMWF.

UW-CIMSS diagnoses almost 60 kt of vertical wind shear over Lane,
as confirmed by satellite animations which show the tops of any
deep convection that develops near the LLCC being quickly ripped
away to the northeast. Very strong shear is forecast to continue
along the forecast track of Lane during the next couple of days.
The intensity forecast anticipates that Lane will continue to
weaken, with the remnant low becoming absorbed within 48 hours into
a larger extratropical low forecast to develop farther to the north.
Unless Lane regains significant deep convection near the center
soon, it will likely be designated as a post-tropical remnant low
on Tuesday morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 18.4N 167.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 19.0N 168.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 29/0600Z 20.3N 168.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 29/1800Z 23.0N 169.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Jacobson

2018-08-28 09:31

WTPA32 PHFO 280841 RRA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 56
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1100 PM HST MON AUG 27 2018

...LANE CONTINUES MOVING WEST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 167.4W
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM S OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 555 MI...890 KM WSW OF BARKING SANDS HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 167.4 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). LANE
IS FORECAST TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT, THEN TO THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LANE IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING.
THE REMNANT LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY, AS IT
BECOMES ABSORBED INTO A DEVELOPING EXTRATROPICAL LOW FARTHER TO THE
NORTH.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------

2018-08-28 09:31

WTPA32 PHFO 280841
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Lane Advisory Number 56
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1100 PM HST Mon Aug 27 2018

...LANE CONTINUES MOVING WEST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 167.4W
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM S OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 555 MI...890 KM WSW OF BARKING SANDS HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should continue to
monitor the progress of Lane.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Lane
was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 167.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). Lane
is forecast to turn to the northwest overnight, then to the north-
northwest on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Lane is
forecast to become a remnant low late tonight or Tuesday morning.
The remnant low is then expected to dissipate on Wednesday, as it
becomes absorbed into a developing extratropical low farther to the
north.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Jacobson


2018-08-28 09:31

WTPA22 PHFO 280839
TCMCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 56
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
0900 UTC TUE AUG 28 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 167.4W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 167.4W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 167.0W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 19.0N 168.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.3N 168.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 23.0N 169.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 167.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

..
FORECASTER JACOBSON

2018-08-28 03:31

WTPN31 PHNC 280400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E (LANE) WARNING NR 055
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 14E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 18.4N 166.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4N 166.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.8N 167.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 19.5N 168.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 20.9N 168.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 22.0N 168.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
280400Z POSITION NEAR 18.5N 166.8W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E (LANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 280000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281000Z, 281600Z, 282200Z
AND 290400Z.//
NNNN

2018-08-28 03:31

WTPA42 PHFO 280255
TCDCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 55
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
500 PM HST MON AUG 27 2018

VISIBLE IMAGERY FROM HIMAWARI CONTINUES TO SHOW AN EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CLOSEST COLD, HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH LANE ARE OVER 90 NM NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM HFO, SAB AND JTWC WERE ALL 2.0/30 KT. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 30 KT, AND
LANE HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION.

A STRONG EAST NORTHEAST TO WEST SOUTHWEST RIDGE NORTH OF LANE
HAS CONTINUED TO STEER THE STORM TOWARD THE WEST. THE INITIAL MOTION
FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 270/6 KT. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A
DEEP LOW ALOFT NEAR 23N 172W. SOUTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW IS PRODUCING STRONG SOUTHWEST VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER LANE. THE
UM-CIMSS SHEAR ESTIMATE WAS 51.2 KT. THE LOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO
INDUCE A DEEPENING NORTH SOUTH SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 170W. THE
WEAKENING CIRCULATION OF LANE WILL BECOME PART OF THIS TROUGH AND
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

LANE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24
HOURS. THE REMNANT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS A NEW
EXTRATROPICAL LOW FORMS TO THE NORTHWEST. THE REMNANTS OF LANE WILL
BECOME WRAPPED UP INTO THAT LOW.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 18.5N 166.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 18.8N 167.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 19.5N 168.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 29/1200Z 20.9N 168.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/0000Z 22.0N 168.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER DONALDSON

2018-08-28 03:31

WTPA32 PHFO 280241 RRA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 55
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
500 PM HST MON AUG 27 2018

...LANE WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 166.6W
ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM WSW OF BARKING SANDS HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 166.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). LANE IS
FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST THIS EVENING, THEN TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE UNTIL LANE DISSIPATES.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LANE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE
REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 72 HOURS AS THE REMNANT
BECOMES PART OF A DEVELOPING EXTRATROPICAL LOW FARTHER TO THE NORTH.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------

2018-08-28 03:31

WTPA32 PHFO 280241
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Lane Advisory Number 55
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
500 PM HST Mon Aug 27 2018

...LANE WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 166.6W
ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM WSW OF BARKING SANDS HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should continue to
monitor the progress of Lane.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Lane was
located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 166.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). Lane is
forecast to turn toward the west northwest this evening, then turn
toward the north northwest tonight. This movement is expected to
continue until Lane dissipates.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Lane is forecast to weaken to a remnant low within 24 hours. The
remnant low is forecast to dissipate within 72 hours as the remnant
becomes part of a developing extratropical low farther to the north.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Donaldson


2018-08-28 03:31

WTPA22 PHFO 280234
TCMCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 55
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
0300 UTC TUE AUG 28 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 166.6W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 166.6W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 166.4W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.8N 167.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.5N 168.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.9N 168.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.0N 168.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 166.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

..
FORECASTER DONALDSON

2018-08-27 22:31

WTPN31 PHNC 272200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14E (LANE) WARNING NR 054
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 18.5N 166.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 166.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 18.9N 167.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 20.0N 168.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 21.6N 169.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 23.5N 170.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
272200Z POSITION NEAR 18.6N 166.4W.
TROPICAL STORM 14E (LANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 227 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
271800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280400Z, 281000Z, 281600Z AND
282200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15E (MIRIAM) WARNINGS (WTPN32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-08-27 21:31

WTPA42 PHFO 272110
TCDCP2

TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 54
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1100 AM HST MON AUG 27 2018

VISIBLE IMAGERY FROM HIMAWARI CONTINUES TO SHOW AN EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH THE COLD, HIGH CLOUDS SHEARING OFF
FARTHER TO THE NORTHEST. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE AMOUNT OF
COLD, HIGH CLOUDS HAS DECREASED IN AREA AND THE TOPS HAVE
WARMED. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM HFO, SAB
AND JTWC WERE ALL 2.0/30 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS
ADVISORY HAS BEEN KEPT AT 35 KT, BUT THAT MAY BE GENEROUS.

A STRONG EAST NORTHEAST TO WEST SOUTHWEST RIDGE NORTH OF LANE
CONTINUES TO STEER THE STORM. THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY
IS 260/6 KT. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A DEEP LOW ALOFT NEAR
24N 172W. SOUTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS PRODUCING THE
SHEAR NOW IMPACTING LANE. THE LOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN A
NORTH SOUTH SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 170W. THE WEAKENING CIRCULATION OF
LANE WILL BECOME PART OF THIS TROUGH AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

LANE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24
HOURS. THE REMNANT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS A NEW
EXTRATROPICAL LOW FORMS TO THE NORTHWEST. THE REMNANTS OF LANE WILL
BECOME WRAPPED UP INTO THAT LOW.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 18.4N 166.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 18.9N 167.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 20.0N 168.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 29/0600Z 21.6N 169.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/1800Z 23.5N 170.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER DONALDSON

2018-08-27 21:31

WTPA32 PHFO 272040 RRA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 54
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1100 AM HST MON AUG 27 2018

...LANE TO RESUME WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 166.4W
ABOUT 585 MI...945 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 500 MI...800 KM WSW OF BARKING SANDS HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 166.4 WEST. LANE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). LANE IS FORECAST TO
TURN TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST LATER TODAY, THEN TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
UNTIL LANE DISSIPATES.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LANE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE
REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 72 HOURS AS THE REMNANT
DISTURBANCE BECOMES PART OF A DEVELOPING EXTRATROPICAL LOW

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES (140 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).

2018-08-27 21:31

WTPA32 PHFO 272040
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lane Advisory Number 54
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1100 AM HST Mon Aug 27 2018

...LANE TO RESUME WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 166.4W
ABOUT 585 MI...945 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 500 MI...800 KM WSW OF BARKING SANDS HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should continue to
monitor the progress of Lane.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lane was
located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 166.4 West. Lane is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). Lane is forecast to
turn toward the west northwest later today, then turn toward the
north northwest tonight. This movement is expected to continue
until Lane dissipates.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Lane is forecast to weaken to a remnant low within 24 hours. The
remnant low is forecast to dissipate within 72 hours as the remnant
disturbance becomes part of a developing extratropical low

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 85 miles (140 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Donaldson


2018-08-27 21:31

WTPA22 PHFO 272030
TCMCP2

TROPICAL STORM LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 54
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
2100 UTC MON AUG 27 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 166.4W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 166.4W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 166.0W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 18.9N 167.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.0N 168.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 21.6N 169.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 23.5N 170.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 166.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

..
FORECASTER DONALDSON

2018-08-27 15:31

WTPN31 PHNC 271600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14E (LANE) WARNING NR 053
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 18.9N 165.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 165.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 19.0N 166.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 19.6N 167.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 21.0N 168.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 23.2N 169.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 29.0N 174.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 32.0N 177.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 34.6N 180.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
---
REMARKS:
271600Z POSITION NEAR 18.9N 165.4W.
TROPICAL STORM 14E (LANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 289 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272200Z, 280400Z, 281000Z AND
281600Z.//
NNNN

2018-08-27 15:31

WTPA42 PHFO 271445 RRA
TCDCP2

TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 53
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
500 AM HST MON AUG 27 2018

LANE'S LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAD BEEN EXPOSED FOR THE BETTER
PART OF THE LAST 30 HOURS, AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY 40 KT OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, A RECENT
VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE BURST IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE HAS AT LEAST
PARTIALLY OBSCURED THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER, AND CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS
INCREASED TO THE SOUTHEAST. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
TRENDED UP, BUT WERE STILL PRIMARILY 2.0/30 KT AT THE SYNOPTIC TIME,
WHILE UW-CIMSS SATCON WAS NEAR 35 KT. WITH THE IMPROVED SATELLITE
APPEARANCE SINCE THEN, AND SINCE AN ASCAT PASS DETECTED WINDS JUST
OVER 30 KT ON SUNDAY, THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS
INCREASED TO 35 KT, AND LANE IS ONCE AGAIN A TROPICAL STORM.

THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 270/7 KT, WITH LANE BEING
DRIVEN WESTWARD BY A SURFACE HIGH TO THE DISTANT NORTHEAST. THIS
MOTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT-TERM, WITH LANE'S FORWARD MOTION
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF
THE HIGH. AT THE SAME TIME, INCREASED INTERACTION WITH AN
AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL LOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A DEEPENING SHEAR
PROFILE, WITH THE STRONG SHEAR CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER-LEVELS
SPREADING TO THE MID-LEVELS. THIS SHOULD BE MORE EFFECTIVE IN
INTERRUPTING LANE'S LOW-LEVEL CORE, AND LANE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY TUESDAY.

LANE IS FORECAST TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW LATER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS IT GETS WRAPPED UP INTO THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED

2018-08-27 15:31

WTPA42 PHFO 271445
TCDCP2

Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number 53
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
500 AM HST Mon Aug 27 2018

Lane's low-level circulation center had been exposed for the better
part of the last 30 hours, as the cyclone remains in an environment
characterized by 40 kt of vertical wind shear. However, a recent
vigorous convective burst in the eastern semicircle has at least
partially obscured the low-level center, and convective banding has
increased to the southeast. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates
trended up, but were still primarily 2.0/30 kt at the synoptic time,
while UW-CIMSS SATCON was near 35 kt. With the improved satellite
appearance since then, and since an ASCAT pass detected winds just
over 30 kt on Sunday, the initial intensity for this advisory is
increased to 35 kt, and Lane is once again a tropical storm.

The initial motion for this advisory is 270/7 kt, with Lane being
driven westward by a surface high to the distant northeast. This
motion will continue in the short-term, with Lane's forward motion
expected to diminish tonight as it reaches the southwestern edge of
the high. At the same time, increased interaction with an
amplifying mid-level low will likely lead to a deepening shear
profile, with the strong shear currently in the upper-levels
spreading to the mid-levels. This should be more effective in
interrupting Lane's low-level core, and Lane is expected to become a
post-tropical remnant low by Tuesday.

Lane is forecast to become an extratropical low later Tuesday into
Wednesday as it gets wrapped up into the circulation associated
with the mid-level low. This extratropical low could then bring
gale force winds to portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine
National Monument as it tracks north and northwest. The updated
track forecast has been shifted to the left of the previous,
especially in the later periods, to be better in line with GFEX. The
intensity forecast represents a blend of regional and global model
guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 18.9N 165.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 19.0N 166.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 19.6N 167.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 29/0000Z 21.0N 168.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/1200Z 23.2N 169.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 30/1200Z 29.0N 174.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 31/1200Z 32.0N 177.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 01/1200Z 34.6N 180.0E 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Birchard

2018-08-27 15:31

WTPA32 PHFO 271436 RRA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 53
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
500 AM HST MON AUG 27 2018

...RESILIENT LANE A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 165.5W
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM WSW OF BARKING SANDS HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 165.5 WEST. LANE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS LANE MAKES A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. LANE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME SHORT-TERM WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND LANE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY TUESDAY. LANE MAY STRENGTHEN
AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW AS IT PASSES OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES (165 KM)

2018-08-27 15:31

WTPA32 PHFO 271436
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lane Advisory Number 53
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
500 AM HST Mon Aug 27 2018

...RESILIENT LANE A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 165.5W
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM WSW OF BARKING SANDS HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should continue to
monitor the progress of Lane.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lane was
located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 165.5 West. Lane is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue today. A decrease in forward speed is expected
tonight as Lane makes a turn toward the northwest. Lane is then
expected to accelerate toward the northwest on Tuesday and
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some short-term weakening is forecast, and Lane is expected to
become a post-tropical remnant low by Tuesday. Lane may strengthen
as an extratropical low as it passes over portions of the
Northwestern Hawaiian Islands from Tuesday night through Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Birchard


2018-08-27 15:31

WTPA22 PHFO 271433 RRA
TCMCP2

TROPICAL STORM LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 53
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1500 UTC MON AUG 27 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 165.5W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 0SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 165.5W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 165.0W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.0N 166.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.6N 167.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.0N 168.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 23.2N 169.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...210NE 90SE 0SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 29.0N 174.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...210NE 120SE 60SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 32.0N 177.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

2018-08-27 15:31

WTPA22 PHFO 271433
TCMCP2

TROPICAL STORM LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 53
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1500 UTC MON AUG 27 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 165.5W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 0SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 165.5W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 165.0W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.0N 166.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.6N 167.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.0N 168.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 23.2N 169.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...210NE 90SE 0SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 29.0N 174.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...210NE 120SE 60SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 32.0N 177.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 34.6N 180.0E...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 165.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD



2018-08-27 09:31

WTPN31 PHNC 271000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E (LANE) WARNING NR 052
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 18.9N 164.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 164.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 18.9N 165.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 19.2N 166.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 20.2N 167.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 22.0N 168.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 26.8N 171.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 31.0N 175.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 35.5N 178.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
---
REMARKS:
271000Z POSITION NEAR 18.9N 164.8W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E (LANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 319 NM
SOUTHWEST OF BARKING SANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS
10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271600Z, 272200Z, 280400Z AND 281000Z.//
NNNN

2018-08-27 09:31

WTPA42 PHFO 270847 RRA
TCDCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 52
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1100 PM HST SUN AUG 26 2018

LANE'S LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN EXPOSED FOR THE BETTER
PART OF THE PAST 24 HOURS, BARRING A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON WHEN
BURSTING CONVECTION BRIEFLY MOVED OVER THE CENTER. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WERE QUICKLY SHEARED AWAY TO THE EAST AS LANE REMAINS
EMBEDDED IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 40-50 KT OF VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 1.5/25 KT
FROM HFO/SAB/GTW, BUT LANE'S APPEARANCE HASN'T CHANGED MUCH SINCE A
MORNING ASCAT PASS INDICATED 30 KT IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. AS
SUCH, THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 270/8 KT, WITH LANE BEING
DRIVEN WESTWARD BY A SURFACE HIGH TO THE DISTANT NE. THIS MOTION
WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT-TERM, WITH THE STRONG SHEAR LIKELY
CAUSING LANE TO DEVOLVE INTO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY.
A BRIEF SLOWING IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS THE REMNANT LOW REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH
AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A MID-LEVEL LOW TO ITS WEST. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS REDUCED, THIS INTERACTION IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS LOW COULD BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT AS IT TRACKS NORTHWEST.
THE UPDATED TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST, AND REPRESENTS A BLEND OF REGIONAL AND GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

2018-08-27 09:31

WTPA42 PHFO 270847
TCDCP2

Tropical Depression Lane Discussion Number 52
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1100 PM HST Sun Aug 26 2018

Lane's low-level circulation center has been exposed for the better
part of the past 24 hours, barring a period this afternoon when
bursting convection briefly moved over the center. These
thunderstorms were quickly sheared away to the east as Lane remains
embedded in an environment characterized by 40-50 kt of vertical
wind shear. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were 1.5/25 kt
from HFO/SAB/GTW, but Lane's appearance hasn't changed much since a
morning ASCAT pass indicated 30 kt in the northern semicircle. As
such, the initial intensity will remain 30 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion for this advisory is 270/8 kt, with Lane being
driven westward by a surface high to the distant NE. This motion
will continue in the short-term, with the strong shear likely
causing Lane to devolve into a post-tropical remnant low on Monday.
A brief slowing in forward speed is expected late Monday and
Tuesday as the remnant low reaches the southwestern edge of the high
and begins to interact with a mid-level low to its west. Although
confidence is reduced, this interaction is expected to lead to the
development of an extratropical low later Tuesday into Wednesday.
This low could bring gale force winds to portions of the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument as it tracks northwest.
The updated track and intensity forecast is close to the previous
forecast, and represents a blend of regional and global model
guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 18.9N 164.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 18.9N 165.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 19.2N 166.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 28/1800Z 20.2N 167.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/0600Z 22.0N 168.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/0600Z 26.8N 171.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 31/0600Z 31.0N 175.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 01/0600Z 35.5N 178.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Birchard

2018-08-27 09:31

WTPA32 PHFO 270841 RRA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 52
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1100 PM HST SUN AUG 26 2018

...LANE TRACKING WEST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 164.7W
ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SW OF BARKING SANDS HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 164.7 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H), AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON MONDAY. A BRIEF SLOWING IN FORWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AS LANE MAKES A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST. LANE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHWESTWARD TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, BUT
LANE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY.
LANE MAY DEVELOP INTO A GALE FORCE EXTRATROPICAL LOW AS IT PASSES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON TUESDAY AND

2018-08-27 09:31

WTPA32 PHFO 270841
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Lane Advisory Number 52
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1100 PM HST Sun Aug 26 2018

...LANE TRACKING WEST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 164.7W
ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SW OF BARKING SANDS HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should continue to
monitor the progress of Lane.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Lane
was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 164.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue on Monday. A brief slowing in forward
motion is expected Monday night as Lane makes a turn toward the
northwest. Lane is then expected to accelerate northwestward Tuesday
and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, but
Lane is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low on Monday.
Lane may develop into a gale force extratropical low as it passes
over portions of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands on Tuesday and
Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Birchard


2018-08-27 09:31

WTPA22 PHFO 270836 RRA
TCMCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 52
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
0900 UTC MON AUG 27 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 164.7W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 164.7W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 164.3W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.9N 165.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.2N 166.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.2N 167.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 22.0N 168.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 26.8N 171.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 31.0N 175.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

2018-08-27 09:31

WTPA22 PHFO 270836
TCMCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 52
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
0900 UTC MON AUG 27 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 164.7W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 164.7W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 164.3W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.9N 165.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.2N 166.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.2N 167.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 22.0N 168.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 26.8N 171.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 31.0N 175.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 35.5N 178.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 164.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD



2018-08-27 03:31

WTPN31 PHNC 270400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E (LANE) WARNING NR 051
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 18.9N 163.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 163.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 18.6N 164.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 18.8N 166.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 19.5N 166.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 21.2N 167.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 25.9N 170.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 30.9N 174.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 34.3N 179.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
---
REMARKS:
270400Z POSITION NEAR 18.8N 163.8W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E (LANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM
SOUTHWEST OF BARKING SANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
270000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271000Z, 271600Z, 272200Z AND
280400Z.//
NNNN

2018-08-27 03:31

WTPA42 PHFO 270244 RRA
TCDCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 51
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
500 PM HST SUN AUG 26 2018

THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF LANE REMAINS EXPOSED WITH
CONTINUED BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION PULSING IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SOME DEEP CONVECTION
DEVELOPING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. LANE
REMAINS IN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WITH UW-CIMSS VERTICAL SHEAR
ESTIMATE OF 47 KNOTS IMPACTING THE SYSTEM. WITH THE CONTINUED DEEP
CONVECTION PERSISTING NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION AS WELL AS THE
LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS
ADVISORY REMAINS AT 30 KT. AN ASCAT PASS AT AROUND 20Z DETECTED WIND
SPEEDS OF 32 KNOTS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM.

THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 255/8 KT. A SURFACE HIGH TO
THE DISTANT NORTHEAST WILL KEEP LANE MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE
WEST INTO MONDAY AS IT DEVOLVES INTO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW
LATER TONIGHT OR MONDAY. ONCE LANE BECOMES POST-TROPICAL,
REDEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY. A BRIEF
SLOWING IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE REMNANT LOW REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH AND BEGINS
TO INTERACT WITH A DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL LOW TO ITS WEST. ASSUMING
LANE SURVIVES AS A COHERENT FEATURE UNTIL THEN, THIS INTERACTION IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW COULD BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO
PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT AS IT
TRACKS NORTH AND NORTHWEST AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE LATEST

2018-08-27 03:31

WTPA42 PHFO 270244
TCDCP2

Tropical Depression Lane Discussion Number 51
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
500 PM HST Sun Aug 26 2018

The low-level circulation center of Lane remains exposed with
continued bursts of deep convection pulsing in the northeast
quadrant. Recent satellite imagery also shows some deep convection
developing south and southwest of the circulation center. Lane
remains in a hostile environment with UW-CIMSS vertical shear
estimate of 47 knots impacting the system. With the continued deep
convection persisting near the center of circulation as well as the
latest Dvorak intensity estimates, the initial intensity for this
advisory remains at 30 kt. An ASCAT pass at around 20Z detected wind
speeds of 32 knots in the northwest quadrant of the system.

The initial motion for this advisory is 255/8 kt. A surface high to
the distant northeast will keep Lane moving generally toward the
west into Monday as it devolves into a post-tropical remnant low
later tonight or Monday. Once Lane becomes post-tropical,
redevelopment into a tropical cyclone is highly unlikely. A brief
slowing in forward speed is expected late Monday and Monday night as
the remnant low reaches the southwestern edge of the high and begins
to interact with a developing mid-level low to its west. Assuming
Lane survives as a coherent feature until then, this interaction is
expected to lead to the development of an extratropical low by
Tuesday or Wednesday. This low could bring gale force winds to
portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument as it
tracks north and northwest around the middle of the week. The latest
official forecast track is close to the TVCN consensus model while
the intensity forecast is supported by global model guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 18.8N 163.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 18.6N 164.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 18.8N 166.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 28/1200Z 19.5N 166.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/0000Z 21.2N 167.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/0000Z 25.9N 170.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 31/0000Z 30.9N 174.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 01/0000Z 34.3N 179.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Burke

2018-08-27 03:31

WTPA32 PHFO 270243 RRA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 51
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
500 PM HST SUN AUG 26 2018

...LANE CONTINUES MOVING AWAY FROM THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 163.7W
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SW OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 163.7 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H)
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. A BRIEF SLOWING
IN FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AS LANE MAKES A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. LANE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
NORTHWESTWARD BY TUESDAY AS IT TRANSITIONS TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND
LANE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR
MONDAY. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS, LANE MAY DEVELOP INTO A GALE FORCE

2018-08-27 03:31

WTPA32 PHFO 270243
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Lane Advisory Number 51
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
500 PM HST Sun Aug 26 2018

...LANE CONTINUES MOVING AWAY FROM THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 163.7W
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SW OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should
continue to monitor the progress of Lane.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Lane was
located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 163.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue into Monday. A brief slowing
in forward motion is expected Monday night as Lane makes a turn
toward the northwest. Lane is then expected to accelerate
northwestward by Tuesday as it transitions to an extratropical low.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Lane is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low tonight or
Monday. In a couple of days, Lane may develop into a gale force
extratropical low as it passes over portions of the Northwestern
Hawaiian Islands.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Burke


2018-08-27 03:31

WTPA22 PHFO 270242 RRA
TCMCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 51
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
0300 UTC MON AUG 27 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 163.7W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 163.7W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 163.3W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.6N 164.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.8N 166.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.5N 166.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.2N 167.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 25.9N 170.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 30.9N 174.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

2018-08-27 03:31

WTPA22 PHFO 270242
TCMCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 51
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
0300 UTC MON AUG 27 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 163.7W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 163.7W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 163.3W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.6N 164.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.8N 166.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.5N 166.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.2N 167.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 25.9N 170.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 30.9N 174.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 34.3N 179.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 163.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BURKE



2018-08-26 21:31

WTPN31 PHNC 262200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E (LANE) WARNING NR 050
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 19.1N 162.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 162.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 18.9N 164.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 19.0N 166.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 19.4N 167.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 20.4N 167.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 25.0N 169.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 30.6N 174.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 34.0N 179.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
---
REMARKS:
262200Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 163.4W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E (LANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 242 NM
SOUTHWEST OF BARKING SANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270400Z, 271000Z, 271600Z AND 272200Z.//
NNNN

2018-08-26 21:31

WTPA42 PHFO 262044 RRA
TCDCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 50
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1100 AM HST SUN AUG 26 2018

THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF LANE REMAINS EXPOSED WITH
BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUING TO PULSE IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT. THE ONCE POWERFUL CYCLONE IS IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW, AS IT REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT, WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KNOTS IMPACTING
THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY REMAINS AT 30 KT
BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. BASED ON AN
OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS, THESE WINDS ARE MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION.

THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 270/9 KT. A SURFACE HIGH TO
THE DISTANT NORTHEAST WILL KEEP LANE MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE
WEST INTO MONDAY AS IT DEVOLVES INTO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. ONCE LANE BECOMES POST-TROPICAL,
REDEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY. A BRIEF
SLOWING IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AS THE REMNANT
LOW REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH AND BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH A DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL LOW TO ITS WEST. ASSUMING LANE
SURVIVES AS A COHERENT FEATURE UNTIL THEN, THIS INTERACTION IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW COULD BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO
PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT AS IT
TRACKS NORTH AND NORTHWEST AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE LATEST
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE TVCE CONSENSUS WHILE THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SUPPORTED BY GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

2018-08-26 21:31

WTPA42 PHFO 262044
TCDCP2

Tropical Depression Lane Discussion Number 50
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1100 AM HST Sun Aug 26 2018

The low-level circulation center of Lane remains exposed with
bursts of deep convection continuing to pulse in the northeast
quadrant. The once powerful cyclone is in the process of becoming a
post-tropical remnant low, as it remains embedded in a hostile
environment, with vertical wind shear of around 40 knots impacting
the system. The initial intensity for this advisory remains at 30 kt
based on the latest Dvorak intensity estimates. Based on an
overnight ASCAT pass, these winds are mainly in the northern
semicircle of the circulation.

The initial motion for this advisory is 270/9 kt. A surface high to
the distant northeast will keep Lane moving generally toward the
west into Monday as it devolves into a post-tropical remnant low
later today or tonight. Once Lane becomes post-tropical,
redevelopment into a tropical cyclone is highly unlikely. A brief
slowing in forward speed is expected Monday night as the remnant
low reaches the southwestern edge of the high and begins to
interact with a developing mid-level low to its west. Assuming Lane
survives as a coherent feature until then, this interaction is
expected to lead to the development of an extratropical low by
Tuesday or Wednesday. This low could bring gale force winds to
portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument as it
tracks north and northwest around the middle of the week. The latest
official forecast track is close to the TVCE consensus while the
intensity forecast is supported by global model guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 19.1N 163.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 18.9N 164.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 19.0N 166.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 28/0600Z 19.4N 167.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 28/1800Z 20.4N 167.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/1800Z 25.0N 169.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 30/1800Z 30.6N 174.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 31/1800Z 34.0N 179.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Burke

2018-08-26 21:31

WTPA32 PHFO 262043 RRA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 50
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1100 AM HST SUN AUG 26 2018

...LANE MOVING WEST AWAY FROM THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 163.2W
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SW OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 163.2 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H) AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. A BRIEF SLOWING
IN FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AS LANE MAKES A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. LANE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
NORTHWESTWARD BY TUESDAY AS IT TRANSITIONS TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS , AND
LANE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY
OR TONIGHT. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS, LANE MAY DEVELOP INTO A GALE FORCE

2018-08-26 21:31

WTPA32 PHFO 262043
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Lane Advisory Number 50
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1100 AM HST Sun Aug 26 2018

...LANE MOVING WEST AWAY FROM THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 163.2W
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SW OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should
continue to monitor the progress of Lane.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Lane
was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 163.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue into Monday. A brief slowing
in forward motion is expected Monday night as Lane makes a turn
toward the northwest. Lane is then expected to accelerate
northwestward by Tuesday as it transitions to an extratropical low.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours , and
Lane is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low later today
or tonight. In a couple of days, Lane may develop into a gale force
extratropical low as it passes over portions of the Northwestern
Hawaiian Islands.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Lingering moisture associated with Lane will produce heavy
rainfall over portions of the main Hawaiian Islands today, which
could lead to additional flash flooding and landslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Burke


2018-08-26 21:31

WTPA22 PHFO 262043 RRA
TCMCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 50
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
2100 UTC SUN AUG 26 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 163.2W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 163.2W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 162.7W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.9N 164.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 19.0N 166.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.4N 167.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.4N 167.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 25.0N 169.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 30.6N 174.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 34.0N 179.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

2018-08-26 21:31

WTPA22 PHFO 262043
TCMCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 50
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
2100 UTC SUN AUG 26 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 163.2W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 163.2W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 162.7W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.9N 164.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 19.0N 166.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.4N 167.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.4N 167.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 25.0N 169.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 30.6N 174.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 34.0N 179.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 163.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BURKE



2018-08-26 16:31

WTNT82 EGRR 261605

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 26.08.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 90E ANALYSED POSITION : 9.4N 104.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP902018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.08.2018 0 9.4N 104.6W 1010 16
0000UTC 27.08.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM 15E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.3N 125.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.08.2018 0 13.3N 125.4W 1004 27
0000UTC 27.08.2018 12 13.8N 127.5W 996 47
1200UTC 27.08.2018 24 14.2N 130.0W 992 45
0000UTC 28.08.2018 36 14.5N 132.2W 991 48
1200UTC 28.08.2018 48 14.8N 134.5W 992 50
0000UTC 29.08.2018 60 15.3N 136.7W 995 46
1200UTC 29.08.2018 72 15.5N 138.7W 996 40
0000UTC 30.08.2018 84 15.9N 139.7W 993 44
1200UTC 30.08.2018 96 17.4N 140.0W 987 51
0000UTC 31.08.2018 108 19.6N 140.0W 983 60
1200UTC 31.08.2018 120 21.8N 139.6W 996 51
0000UTC 01.09.2018 132 23.9N 140.4W 1001 37
1200UTC 01.09.2018 144 25.9N 142.2W 1006 29

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.2N 161.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.08.2018 0 19.2N 161.8W 1005 35
0000UTC 27.08.2018 12 19.1N 163.9W 1006 29
1200UTC 27.08.2018 24 18.6N 165.4W 1007 25
0000UTC 28.08.2018 36 18.5N 166.2W 1006 23
1200UTC 28.08.2018 48 19.0N 167.1W 1006 23
0000UTC 29.08.2018 60 20.2N 167.1W 1006 29
1200UTC 29.08.2018 72 22.5N 167.8W 1007 32
0000UTC 30.08.2018 84 25.7N 168.7W 1008 33
1200UTC 30.08.2018 96 28.1N 171.1W 1009 38
0000UTC 31.08.2018 108 31.4N 174.3W 1007 40
1200UTC 31.08.2018 120 33.2N 177.7W 1007 29
0000UTC 01.09.2018 132 34.3N 179.3W 1008 26
1200UTC 01.09.2018 144 36.0N 179.7E 1009 28

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 17.8N 126.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 31.08.2018 108 18.1N 127.5W 1008 21
1200UTC 31.08.2018 120 18.6N 129.4W 1008 24
0000UTC 01.09.2018 132 19.0N 130.8W 1008 19
1200UTC 01.09.2018 144 18.9N 132.3W 1009 23


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 261605

2018-08-26 16:31

WTNT80 EGRR 261605

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 26.08.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 90E ANALYSED POSITION : 9.4N 104.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP902018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 26.08.2018 9.4N 104.6W WEAK
00UTC 27.08.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM 15E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.3N 125.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 26.08.2018 13.3N 125.4W WEAK
00UTC 27.08.2018 13.8N 127.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 27.08.2018 14.2N 130.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.08.2018 14.5N 132.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.08.2018 14.8N 134.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.08.2018 15.3N 136.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2018 15.5N 138.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2018 15.9N 139.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2018 17.4N 140.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 31.08.2018 19.6N 140.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.08.2018 21.8N 139.6W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 01.09.2018 23.9N 140.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.09.2018 25.9N 142.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.2N 161.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 26.08.2018 19.2N 161.8W WEAK
00UTC 27.08.2018 19.1N 163.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.08.2018 18.6N 165.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.08.2018 18.5N 166.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.08.2018 19.0N 167.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.08.2018 20.2N 167.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2018 22.5N 167.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2018 25.7N 168.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2018 28.1N 171.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2018 31.4N 174.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.08.2018 33.2N 177.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2018 34.3N 179.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.09.2018 36.0N 179.7E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 17.8N 126.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 31.08.2018 18.1N 127.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.08.2018 18.6N 129.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2018 19.0N 130.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.09.2018 18.9N 132.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 261605

2018-08-26 15:31

WTPN31 PHNC 261600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E (LANE) WARNING NR 049
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 14E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 19.2N 161.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 161.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 19.1N 163.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 19.1N 164.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 19.5N 166.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 20.2N 167.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 24.5N 169.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 29.5N 173.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 34.0N 177.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
---
REMARKS:
261600Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 162.2W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E (LANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 202 NM
SOUTHWEST OF BARKING SANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262200Z, 270400Z, 271000Z AND 271600Z.//
NNNN

2018-08-26 15:31

WTPA42 PHFO 261444 RRA
TCDCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 49
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
500 AM HST SUN AUG 26 2018

ALTHOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN LANE'S
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS EXPOSED.
THE ONCE POWERFUL CYCLONE IS IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW, AS IT REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 40-50 KT OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 30 KT BASED
ON DECREASING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT ARE NEAR 2.0/30 KT,
AND AN 0821Z ASCAT PASS THAT DETECTED WINDS OF 30 KT, MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 260/9 KT. A SURFACE HIGH TO
THE DISTANT NORTHEAST WILL KEEP LANE MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE
WEST INTO MONDAY AS IT DEVOLVES INTO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW,
PROBABLY BY LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. ONCE LANE BECOMES POST-TROPICAL,
REDEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY. A BRIEF
SLOWING IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AS THE REMNANT
LOW REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH AND BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH A DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL LOW TO ITS WEST. ASSUMING LANE
SURVIVES AS A COHERENT FEATURE UNTIL THEN, THIS INTERACTION IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW COULD BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO PORTIONS
OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT AS IT TRACKS NORTH
AND NORTHWEST AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE LATEST OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE TVCE CONSENSUS WHILE THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SUPPORTED BY GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

2018-08-26 15:31

WTPA42 PHFO 261444
TCDCP2

Tropical Depression Lane Discussion Number 49
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
500 AM HST Sun Aug 26 2018

Although a few thunderstorms have recently developed in Lane's
northern semicircle, the low-level circulation remains exposed.
The once powerful cyclone is in the process of becoming a
post-tropical remnant low, as it remains embedded in a hostile
environment characterized by 40-50 kt of vertical wind shear. The
initial intensity for this advisory has been lowered to 30 kt based
on decreasing Dvorak intensity estimates that are near 2.0/30 kt,
and an 0821Z ASCAT pass that detected winds of 30 kt, mainly in the
northern semicircle.

The initial motion for this advisory is 260/9 kt. A surface high to
the distant northeast will keep Lane moving generally toward the
west into Monday as it devolves into a post-tropical remnant low,
probably by later today or tonight. Once Lane becomes post-tropical,
redevelopment into a tropical cyclone is highly unlikely. A brief
slowing in forward speed is expected Monday night as the remnant
low reaches the southwestern edge of the high and begins to
interact with a developing mid-level low to its west. Assuming Lane
survives as a coherent feature until then, this interaction is
expected to lead to the development of an extratropical low by
Tuesday/Wednesday. This low could bring gale force winds to portions
of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument as it tracks north
and northwest around the middle of the week. The latest official
forecast track is close to the TVCE consensus while the intensity
forecast is supported by global model guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 19.1N 162.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 19.1N 163.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 19.1N 164.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 28/0000Z 19.5N 166.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 28/1200Z 20.2N 167.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/1200Z 24.5N 169.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 30/1200Z 29.5N 173.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 31/1200Z 34.0N 177.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Birchard

2018-08-26 15:31

WTPA32 PHFO 261439 RRA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 49
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
500 AM HST SUN AUG 26 2018

...LANE WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 162.2W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SW OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 162.2 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. A BRIEF SLOWING
IN FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AS LANE MAKES A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. LANE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
NORTHWESTWARD BY TUESDAY AS IT TRANSITIONS TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND LANE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS, LANE MAY DEVELOP INTO A GALE FORCE
EXTRATROPICAL LOW AS IT PASSES OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN

2018-08-26 15:31

WTPA32 PHFO 261439
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Lane Advisory Number 49
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
500 AM HST Sun Aug 26 2018

...LANE WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 162.2W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SW OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should
continue to monitor the progress of Lane.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Lane was
located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 162.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue into Monday. A brief slowing
in forward motion is expected Monday night as Lane makes a turn
toward the northwest. Lane is then expected to accelerate
northwestward by Tuesday as it transitions to an extratropical low.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Lane is
expected to become a post-tropical remnant low later today or
tonight. In a couple of days, Lane may develop into a gale force
extratropical low as it passes over portions of the Northwestern
Hawaiian Islands.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Lingering moisture associated with Lane will produce heavy
rainfall over portions of the main Hawaiian Islands today, which
could lead to additional flash flooding and landslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Birchard


2018-08-26 15:31

WTPA22 PHFO 261433 RRA
TCMCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 49
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1500 UTC SUN AUG 26 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 162.2W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 162.2W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 161.7W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 19.1N 163.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 19.1N 164.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.5N 166.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 20.2N 167.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 24.5N 169.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 29.5N 173.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 34.0N 177.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

2018-08-26 15:31

WTPA22 PHFO 261433
TCMCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 49
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1500 UTC SUN AUG 26 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 162.2W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 162.2W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 161.7W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 19.1N 163.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 19.1N 164.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.5N 166.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 20.2N 167.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 24.5N 169.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 29.5N 173.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 34.0N 177.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 162.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD



2018-08-26 10:31

WTPN31 PHNC 261000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14E (LANE) WARNING NR 048
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 19.4N 160.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4N 160.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 19.4N 162.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 19.3N 163.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 19.5N 165.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 20.0N 166.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 23.6N 168.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 28.5N 172.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 33.0N 177.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
---
REMARKS:
261000Z POSITION NEAR 19.4N 161.2W.
TROPICAL STORM 14E (LANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 166 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF BARKING SANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 13
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261600Z, 262200Z, 270400Z AND 271000Z.//
NNNN

2018-08-26 09:31

WTPA42 PHFO 260857 RRA
TCDCP2

TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 48
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1100 PM HST SAT AUG 25 2018


AFTER A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT STARTED LATE LAST NIGHT AND
CONTINUED THROUGH THIS MORNING, THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) OF LANE BECAME EXPOSED THIS AFTERNOON. THE THUNDERSTORMS
WERE QUICKLY SHEARED AWAY FROM THE CENTER AS LANE IS EMBEDDED IN AN
AREA CHARACTERIZED BY 40-50 KT OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS WERE UNAVAILABLE DUE TO THE LACK OF CONVECTION
NEAR THE CENTER, BUT CURRENT INTENSITIES RANGED FROM 2.0/30 KT TO
2.5/35 KT. GIVEN THAT WE'VE SEEN THESE RECENTLY-EXPOSED LLCCS
PRODUCE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THE PAST, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 260/7 KT. LANE IS BEING
DRIVEN WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW SUPPLIED BY A
SURFACE HIGH TO THE DISTANT NORTHEAST. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM, WITH LANE TRACKING GENERALLY TOWARD
THE WEST THROUGH 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER, GUIDANCE SPREAD INCREASES
SOMEWHAT BUT NOT DRAMATICALLY, AND GENERALLY SHOWS A BRIEF SLOWING
IN FORWARD SPEED BEFORE AN ACCELERATED MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
EVOLVES. THIS OCCURS AS LANE INTERACTS WITH A DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL
LOW TO ITS WEST. THE UPDATED TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS, AND LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.

WITH DEEP CONVECTION ABSENT NEAR LANE'S CENTER FOR SEVERAL HOURS,
THE CLOCK IS TICKING ON LANE'S STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. WHILE
THE UPDATED FORECAST ANTICIPATES THAT BRIEF DEEP CONVECTIVE PULSES

2018-08-26 09:31

WTPA42 PHFO 260857
TCDCP2

Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number 48
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1100 PM HST Sat Aug 25 2018


After a burst of deep convection that started late last night and
continued through this morning, the low-level circulation center
(LLCC) of Lane became exposed this afternoon. The thunderstorms
were quickly sheared away from the center as Lane is embedded in an
area characterized by 40-50 kt of vertical wind shear. Subjective
Dvorak Data-T numbers were unavailable due to the lack of convection
near the center, but current intensities ranged from 2.0/30 kt to
2.5/35 kt. Given that we've seen these recently-exposed LLCCs
produce tropical-storm-force winds in the past, the initial
intensity is estimated to be 35 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion for this advisory is 260/7 kt. Lane is being
driven westward by the low-level trade wind flow supplied by a
surface high to the distant northeast. Track guidance is in good
agreement in the short term, with Lane tracking generally toward
the west through 36 hours. Thereafter, guidance spread increases
somewhat but not dramatically, and generally shows a brief slowing
in forward speed before an accelerated motion toward the northwest
evolves. This occurs as Lane interacts with a developing mid-level
low to its west. The updated track forecast is very close to the
previous, and lies close to the multi-model consensus TVCE.

With deep convection absent near Lane's center for several hours,
the clock is ticking on Lane's status as a tropical cyclone. While
the updated forecast anticipates that brief deep convective pulses
will occasionally occur in association with Lane, these are not
expected to develop over the center, and Lane is now expected to
become a post-tropical remnant low by late Sunday. Thereafter, Lane
is expected to track toward the west as a weak post-tropical
remnant low. Assuming Lane survives as a coherent feature, it is
then expected to interact with a developing low aloft and transition
to an extratropical low by Tuesday/Wednesday. This low could bring
gale force winds to portions of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands
around the middle of the week.

Around 8 pm HST, Lane passed very close to NOAA buoy 51003, which
reported a minimum pressure of 1005 mb and seas just below 12 feet.
These data were used to fine tune the analysis.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 19.3N 161.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 19.4N 162.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 19.3N 163.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 27/1800Z 19.5N 165.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 28/0600Z 20.0N 166.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 29/0600Z 23.6N 168.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 30/0600Z 28.5N 172.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 31/0600Z 33.0N 177.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Birchard

2018-08-26 09:31

WTPA32 PHFO 260851 RRA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 48
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1100 PM HST SAT AUG 25 2018

...WEAKENING LANE MOVING AWAY FROM HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 161.2W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSW OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 161.2 WEST. LANE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. A BRIEF SLOWING IN FORWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AS LANE MAKES A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST. LANE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHWESTWARD BY
TUESDAY AS IT TRANSITIONS TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND LANE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL LOW ON MONDAY. IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS, LANE MAY DEVELOP INTO A GALE FORCE EXTRATROPICAL LOW AS IT
PASSES OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

2018-08-26 09:31

WTPA32 PHFO 260851
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lane Advisory Number 48
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1100 PM HST Sat Aug 25 2018

...WEAKENING LANE MOVING AWAY FROM HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 161.2W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSW OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should
continue to monitor the progress of Lane.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lane was
located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 161.2 West. Lane is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue into Monday. A brief slowing in forward
motion is expected Monday night as Lane makes a turn toward
the northwest. Lane is then expected to accelerate northwestward by
Tuesday as it transitions to an extratropical low.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Lane is
expected to become a post-tropical low on Monday. In a couple of
days, Lane may develop into a gale force extratropical low as it
passes over portions of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Lingering moisture associated with Tropical Storm Lane
will produce heavy rainfall over portions of the main Hawaiian
Islands through Sunday, which could lead to additional flash
flooding and landslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Birchard


2018-08-26 09:31

WTPA22 PHFO 260842 RRA
TCMCP2

TROPICAL STORM LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 48
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
0900 UTC SUN AUG 26 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF LANE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 161.2W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 161.2W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 160.7W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.4N 162.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 19.3N 163.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 19.5N 165.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 20.0N 166.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 23.6N 168.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 28.5N 172.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 33.0N 177.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

2018-08-26 09:31

WTPA22 PHFO 260842
TCMCP2

TROPICAL STORM LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 48
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
0900 UTC SUN AUG 26 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF LANE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 161.2W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 161.2W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 160.7W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.4N 162.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 19.3N 163.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 19.5N 165.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 20.0N 166.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 23.6N 168.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 28.5N 172.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 33.0N 177.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 161.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD



2018-08-26 04:31

WTNT82 EGRR 260406

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 26.08.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 90E ANALYSED POSITION : 12.2N 100.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP902018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 26.08.2018 0 12.2N 100.8W 1009 19
1200UTC 26.08.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 99E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.2N 122.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP992018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 26.08.2018 0 13.2N 122.6W 1009 19
1200UTC 26.08.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.4N 159.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 26.08.2018 0 19.4N 159.9W 1005 31
1200UTC 26.08.2018 12 19.1N 161.7W 1007 28
0000UTC 27.08.2018 24 19.2N 163.2W 1007 26
1200UTC 27.08.2018 36 18.9N 164.7W 1007 23
0000UTC 28.08.2018 48 18.9N 165.4W 1006 25
1200UTC 28.08.2018 60 19.5N 166.2W 1006 26
0000UTC 29.08.2018 72 21.4N 166.6W 1006 29
1200UTC 29.08.2018 84 24.3N 167.9W 1007 35
0000UTC 30.08.2018 96 28.2N 169.2W 1006 46
1200UTC 30.08.2018 108 31.1N 173.0W 1002 44
0000UTC 31.08.2018 120 32.2N 176.3W 999 53
1200UTC 31.08.2018 132 33.2N 178.1W 999 48
0000UTC 01.09.2018 144 34.9N 179.1W 1003 44

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 15.3N 132.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.08.2018 48 15.3N 132.5W 1006 24
1200UTC 28.08.2018 60 15.7N 134.7W 1005 27
0000UTC 29.08.2018 72 16.2N 136.9W 1005 27
1200UTC 29.08.2018 84 16.4N 139.0W 1005 23
0000UTC 30.08.2018 96 16.8N 140.2W 1005 23
1200UTC 30.08.2018 108 17.6N 140.9W 1005 23
0000UTC 31.08.2018 120 20.0N 141.1W 1005 31
1200UTC 31.08.2018 132 21.3N 142.0W 1005 32
0000UTC 01.09.2018 144 22.6N 143.2W 1005 27

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 15.1N 114.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.08.2018 48 15.1N 114.0W 1006 22
1200UTC 28.08.2018 60 15.6N 116.8W 1004 26
0000UTC 29.08.2018 72 15.8N 119.5W 1001 31
1200UTC 29.08.2018 84 15.7N 121.6W 998 32
0000UTC 30.08.2018 96 15.9N 123.5W 995 38
1200UTC 30.08.2018 108 17.0N 125.6W 992 43
0000UTC 31.08.2018 120 18.1N 128.0W 990 46
1200UTC 31.08.2018 132 19.2N 130.1W 991 46
0000UTC 01.09.2018 144 20.1N 132.0W 992 45


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 260406

2018-08-26 04:31

WTNT80 EGRR 260406

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 26.08.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 90E ANALYSED POSITION : 12.2N 100.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP902018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 26.08.2018 12.2N 100.8W WEAK
12UTC 26.08.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 99E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.2N 122.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP992018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 26.08.2018 13.2N 122.6W WEAK
12UTC 26.08.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.4N 159.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 26.08.2018 19.4N 159.9W WEAK
12UTC 26.08.2018 19.1N 161.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.08.2018 19.2N 163.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.08.2018 18.9N 164.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.08.2018 18.9N 165.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.08.2018 19.5N 166.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.08.2018 21.4N 166.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2018 24.3N 167.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2018 28.2N 169.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2018 31.1N 173.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 31.08.2018 32.2N 176.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.08.2018 33.2N 178.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2018 34.9N 179.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 15.3N 132.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 28.08.2018 15.3N 132.5W WEAK
12UTC 28.08.2018 15.7N 134.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.08.2018 16.2N 136.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2018 16.4N 139.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2018 16.8N 140.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2018 17.6N 140.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2018 20.0N 141.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.08.2018 21.3N 142.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2018 22.6N 143.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 15.1N 114.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 28.08.2018 15.1N 114.0W WEAK
12UTC 28.08.2018 15.6N 116.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.08.2018 15.8N 119.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2018 15.7N 121.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2018 15.9N 123.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2018 17.0N 125.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2018 18.1N 128.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.08.2018 19.2N 130.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2018 20.1N 132.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 260406

2018-08-26 03:31

WTPN31 PHNC 260400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14E (LANE) WARNING NR 047
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 19.5N 159.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 159.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 19.4N 161.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 19.2N 163.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 19.1N 164.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 19.6N 166.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 22.5N 168.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 26.6N 170.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 31.4N 175.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
---
REMARKS:
260400Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 160.3W.
TROPICAL STORM 14E (LANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM SOUTH OF
BARKING SANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 261000Z, 261600Z, 262200Z AND 270400Z.//
NNNN

2018-08-26 03:31

WTPA42 PHFO 260245 RRA
TCDCP2

TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 47
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
500 PM HST SAT AUG 25 2018

THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF LANE IS EXPOSED IN VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUING TO PULSE
EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK FIXES AND
THE LATEST SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF LANE, WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE
INITIAL INTENSITY AT 45 KNOTS WITH THIS ADVISORY. WIND RADII WERE
DECREASED SLIGHTLY BASED ON A RECENT ASCAT PASS WHICH CAPTURED THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION.

STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KT CONTINUES TO IMPACT LANE.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO
THIS STRONG SHEAR PERSISTING. THIS FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH ICON AND
SHIPS GUIDANCE. LANE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION IN ABOUT
36 HOURS AND TO A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS. ASSUMING THIS LOW
SURVIVES, IT MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL GALE LOW IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AROUND DAYS 4 AND 5.

THE LATEST MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 270/8 KNOTS. A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN FORWARD IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
LOW LEVEL CENTER REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES SOUTH OF AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF HAWAII. BY DAY 3, A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED THE THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE HIGH. THE
CURRENT TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED TO THE LEFT THROUGH 48 HOURS,
WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. THIS FORECAST CLOSELY
FOLLOWS THE HWRF, AND LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 19.5N 160.2W 45 KT 50 MPH

2018-08-26 03:31

WTPA42 PHFO 260245
TCDCP2

Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number 47
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
500 PM HST Sat Aug 25 2018

The low level circulation center of Lane is exposed in visible
satellite imagery with bursts of deep convection continuing to pulse
east of the low level center. Based on the latest Dvorak fixes and
the latest satellite representation of Lane, we have maintained the
initial intensity at 45 knots with this advisory. Wind radii were
decreased slightly based on a recent ASCAT pass which captured the
eastern side of the circulation.

Strong westerly shear of 30 to 40 kt continues to impact lane.
Gradual weakening is forecast over the next couple of days due to
this strong shear persisting. This follows closely with ICON and
SHIPS guidance. Lane is forecast to weaken to a depression in about
36 hours and to a remnant low by 72 hours. Assuming this low
survives, it may eventually become an extratropical gale low in the
vicinity of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands around days 4 and 5.

The latest motion for this advisory is 270/8 knots. A slight
increase in forward is expected over the next couple of days as the
low level center remains embedded in the trades south of an area of
high pressure north of Hawaii. By day 3, a turn to the northwest is
expected the the system rounds the southwest side of the high. The
current track forecast has been nudged to the left through 48 hours,
with little change from days 3 through 5. This forecast closely
follows the HWRF, and lies close to the consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 19.5N 160.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 19.4N 161.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 19.2N 163.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 19.1N 164.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 19.6N 166.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 22.5N 168.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 30/0000Z 26.6N 170.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 31/0000Z 31.4N 175.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Burke

2018-08-26 03:31

WTPA32 PHFO 260244 RRA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 47
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
500 PM HST SAT AUG 25 2018

...LANE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST AWAY FROM THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 160.2W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSW OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM LANE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 160.2 WEST. LANE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES (150 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB (29.47 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM LANE
WILL PRODUCE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS

2018-08-26 03:31

WTPA32 PHFO 260244
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lane Advisory Number 47
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
500 PM HST Sat Aug 25 2018

...LANE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST AWAY FROM THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 160.2W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSW OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should monitor
the progress of Tropical Storm Lane.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lane was
located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 160.2 West. Lane is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through Monday with a slight increase in
forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Lingering moisture associated with Tropical Storm Lane
will produce excessive rainfall over the main Hawaiian Islands
through Sunday, which could lead to additional flash flooding and
landslides.



NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Burke


2018-08-26 03:31

WTPA22 PHFO 260244 RRA
TCMCP2

TROPICAL STORM LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 47
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
0300 UTC SUN AUG 26 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM LANE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 160.2W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 30SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 85NE 50SE 50SW 85NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 160.2W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 159.8W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.4N 161.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 15SW 55NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 19.2N 163.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 35NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 19.1N 164.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.6N 166.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 22.5N 168.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 26.6N 170.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 31.4N 175.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

2018-08-26 03:31

WTPA22 PHFO 260244
TCMCP2

TROPICAL STORM LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 47
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
0300 UTC SUN AUG 26 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM LANE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 160.2W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 30SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 85NE 50SE 50SW 85NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 160.2W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 159.8W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.4N 161.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 15SW 55NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 19.2N 163.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 35NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 19.1N 164.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.6N 166.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 22.5N 168.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 26.6N 170.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 31.4N 175.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 160.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BURKE



2018-08-25 21:31

WTPN31 PHNC 252200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14E (LANE) WARNING NR 046
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 19.6N 159.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 159.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 19.7N 160.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 19.5N 161.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 19.4N 163.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 19.7N 165.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 21.6N 167.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 25.5N 169.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 30.4N 174.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
---
REMARKS:
252200Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 159.5W.
TROPICAL STORM 14E (LANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 122 NM SOUTHWEST
OF HICKAM AFB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 260400Z, 261000Z, 261600Z AND 262200Z.//
NNNN

2018-08-25 21:31

WTPA42 PHFO 252045 RRA
TCDCP2

TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 46
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1100 AM HST SAT AUG 25 2018

BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUE TO PULSE NEAR THE CIRCULATION
CENTER OF LANE. LIGHTNING HAS ALSO BEEN PERSISTENT NEAR THE CORE OF
THIS DEEP CONVECTION. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF
THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK FIXES AND THE
LATEST SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF LANE, WE HAVE LOWERED THE
INITIAL INTENSITY TO 45 KNOTS. WIND RADII WERE DECREASED BASED ON
AN OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS.

STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KT CONTINUES TO IMPACT LANE.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO
THIS STRONG SHEAR PERSISTING. THIS FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH ICON AND
SHIPS GUIDANCE. LANE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION IN ABOUT
36 HOURS AND TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. ASSUMING THIS LOW
SURVIVES, IT MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL GALE LOW IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AROUND DAYS 4 AND 5.

THE LATEST MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 280/6 KNOTS. EARLY MORNING
VISIBLE IMAGERY COMBINED WITH AN AMSR PASS AT 1205Z CONFIRMED THAT
LANE HAS MADE THE LONG AWAITED TURN TOWARD THE WEST. THE CURRENT
TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE LEFT THROUGH 48 HOURS, WITH
LITTLE CHANGE FROM DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. THIS FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS
THE HWRF, AND LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS. THERE ARE ONLY
SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE TRACK FORECAST COMPARED WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST FROM DAYS 2 THROUGH 5.

BASED ON THE CONFIRMATION ON THE TURN TO THE WEST AS WELL AS THE

2018-08-25 21:31

WTPA42 PHFO 252045
TCDCP2

Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number 46
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1100 AM HST Sat Aug 25 2018

Bursts of deep convection continue to pulse near the circulation
center of Lane. Lightning has also been persistent near the core of
this deep convection. Visible satellite imagery shows the low level
circulation center is partially exposed on the southwest side of
the deepest convection. Based on the latest Dvorak fixes and the
latest satellite representation of Lane, we have lowered the
initial intensity to 45 knots. Wind radii were decreased based on
an overnight ASCAT pass.

Strong westerly shear of 30 to 40 kt continues to impact lane.
Gradual weakening is forecast over the next couple of days due to
this strong shear persisting. This follows closely with ICON and
SHIPS guidance. Lane is forecast to weaken to a depression in about
36 hours and to a remnant low in about 72 hours. Assuming this low
survives, it may eventually become an extratropical gale low in the
vicinity of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands around days 4 and 5.

The latest motion for this advisory is 280/6 knots. Early morning
visible imagery combined with an AMSR pass at 1205Z confirmed that
Lane has made the long awaited turn toward the west. The current
track forecast has been shifted to the left through 48 hours, with
little change from days 3 through 5. This forecast closely follows
the HWRF, and lies close to the consensus models. There are only
subtle changes in the track forecast compared with the previous
forecast from days 2 through 5.

Based on the confirmation on the turn to the west as well as the
latest forecast track, all watches and warnings for the main
Hawaiian Islands have been discontinued.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Effects from tropical storms can and do extend well from the
center. Lingering moisture associated with Lane will continue to
bring persistent flooding rainfall across parts of the state.
Locally gusty winds will continue to be accelerated over higher
terrain, through gaps, and where winds blow downslope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 19.7N 159.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 19.7N 160.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 19.5N 161.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 19.4N 163.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 19.7N 165.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 21.6N 167.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 25.5N 169.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 30/1800Z 30.4N 174.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Burke

2018-08-25 21:31

WTPA32 PHFO 252044 RRA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 46
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1100 AM HST SAT AUG 25 2018

...LANE NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AND WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE
WESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 159.4W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM S OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR OAHU AND MAUI
COUNTY.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR KAUAI COUNTY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM LANE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 159.4 WEST. LANE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY WITH AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, LANE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH OF KAUAI LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES (155 KM)

2018-08-25 21:31

WTPA32 PHFO 252044
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lane Advisory Number 46
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1100 AM HST Sat Aug 25 2018

...LANE NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AND WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE
WESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 159.4W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM S OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for Oahu and Maui
County.

The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued for Kauai County.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should monitor
the progress of Tropical Storm Lane.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lane was
located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 159.4 West. Lane is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue this afternoon through Monday with an increase
in forward speed. On the forecast track, Lane is expected to pass
about 150 miles south of Kauai later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 100 miles (155 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Lingering moisture associated with Tropical Storm Lane
will produce excessive rainfall this weekend, which could lead to
additional flash flooding and landslides. Lane is expected to
produce additional rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches across
windward Big Island and Maui and 3 to 5 inches elsewhere.
Localized storm total amounts well in excess of 40 inches have
already been observed along the windward side of the Big Island.

SURF: High surf is expected along exposed south and east shorelines
of the main Hawaiian Islands today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Burke


2018-08-25 21:31

WTPA22 PHFO 252043 RRA
TCMCP2

TROPICAL STORM LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 46
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
2100 UTC SAT AUG 25 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR OAHU AND MAUI
COUNTY.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR KAUAI COUNTY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM LANE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 159.4W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 85NE 65SE 35SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 95NE 60SE 55SW 85NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 159.4W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 159.1W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.7N 160.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 55SE 25SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.5N 161.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 15SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 19.4N 163.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 19.7N 165.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 21.6N 167.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

2018-08-25 21:31

WTPA22 PHFO 252043
TCMCP2

TROPICAL STORM LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 46
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
2100 UTC SAT AUG 25 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR OAHU AND MAUI
COUNTY.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR KAUAI COUNTY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM LANE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 159.4W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 85NE 65SE 35SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 95NE 60SE 55SW 85NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 159.4W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 159.1W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.7N 160.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 55SE 25SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.5N 161.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 15SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 19.4N 163.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 19.7N 165.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 21.6N 167.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 25.5N 169.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 30.4N 174.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 159.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BURKE



2018-08-25 18:31

WTPA32 PHFO 251757 RRA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LANE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 45A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
800 AM HST SAT AUG 25 2018

...LANE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE WESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 158.7W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...5 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. OAHU
.. MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI, LANAI, MOLOKAI
AND KAHOOLAWE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM LANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM HST (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 158.7 WEST. LANE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH (5 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE

2018-08-25 18:31

WTPA32 PHFO 251757
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lane Intermediate Advisory Number 45A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
800 AM HST Sat Aug 25 2018

...LANE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE WESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 158.7W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...5 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Oahu
* Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai
and Kahoolawe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Kauai County...including the islands of Kauai and Niihau

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should monitor
the progress of Tropical Storm Lane.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM HST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lane was
located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 158.7 West. Lane is
moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (5 km/h). A turn toward the
west and an increase in forward speed is expected starting this
afternoon or tonight. This westward motion is forecast to continue
through Sunday. On this forecast track, the center of Lane will pass
south of Kauai and Niihau later today and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are still expected in and near
outer rain bands that will affect Oahu and Maui County today.
Tropical storm conditions are possible on Kauai starting later
today.

RAINFALL: Lane's outer rain bands will produce excessive rainfall
this weekend, which could lead to additional flash flooding and
landslides. Lane is expected to produce additional rain
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches in some areas. Localized storm total
amounts well in excess of 40 inches have already been observed along
the windward side of the Big Island.

SURF: High surf is expected along exposed south and east shorelines
of the main Hawaiian Islands today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Burke


2018-08-25 16:31

WTPN31 PHNC 251600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14E (LANE) WARNING NR 045
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 19.7N 158.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 158.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 20.2N 158.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 20.3N 160.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 20.2N 162.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 20.4N 163.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 21.2N 166.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 24.5N 168.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 29.5N 172.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
---
REMARKS:
251600Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 158.5W.
TROPICAL STORM 14E (LANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 99 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF HICKAM AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
251200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252200Z, 260400Z, 261000Z AND
261600Z.//
NNNN

2018-08-25 16:31

WTNT82 EGRR 251605

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 25.08.2018

TROPICAL STORM LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.0N 158.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.08.2018 0 19.0N 158.9W 1004 31
0000UTC 26.08.2018 12 19.2N 159.9W 1006 28
1200UTC 26.08.2018 24 18.9N 161.5W 1007 27
0000UTC 27.08.2018 36 18.8N 163.2W 1007 26
1200UTC 27.08.2018 48 18.5N 164.6W 1007 24
0000UTC 28.08.2018 60 18.8N 165.0W 1006 25
1200UTC 28.08.2018 72 19.7N 166.1W 1006 25
0000UTC 29.08.2018 84 21.4N 166.6W 1006 28
1200UTC 29.08.2018 96 23.8N 167.6W 1008 31
0000UTC 30.08.2018 108 28.0N 169.3W 1006 45
1200UTC 30.08.2018 120 31.1N 172.3W 1005 46
0000UTC 31.08.2018 132 33.5N 176.3W 994 50
1200UTC 31.08.2018 144 34.9N 178.0W 1000 44

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 14.8N 115.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.08.2018 60 14.8N 115.5W 1005 26
1200UTC 28.08.2018 72 15.0N 118.4W 1004 27
0000UTC 29.08.2018 84 15.0N 120.8W 1001 29
1200UTC 29.08.2018 96 15.5N 123.0W 999 31
0000UTC 30.08.2018 108 15.8N 125.4W 996 39
1200UTC 30.08.2018 120 16.7N 127.7W 993 43
0000UTC 31.08.2018 132 18.3N 130.1W 991 48
1200UTC 31.08.2018 144 20.0N 132.4W 992 48


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 251605

2018-08-25 16:31

WTNT80 EGRR 251605

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 25.08.2018

TROPICAL STORM LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.0N 158.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 25.08.2018 19.0N 158.9W WEAK
00UTC 26.08.2018 19.2N 159.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.08.2018 18.9N 161.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.08.2018 18.8N 163.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.08.2018 18.5N 164.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.08.2018 18.8N 165.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.08.2018 19.7N 166.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.08.2018 21.4N 166.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2018 23.8N 167.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2018 28.0N 169.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2018 31.1N 172.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2018 33.5N 176.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 31.08.2018 34.9N 178.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 14.8N 115.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 28.08.2018 14.8N 115.5W WEAK
12UTC 28.08.2018 15.0N 118.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.08.2018 15.0N 120.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2018 15.5N 123.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2018 15.8N 125.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2018 16.7N 127.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2018 18.3N 130.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.08.2018 20.0N 132.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 251605

2018-08-25 15:31

WTPA42 PHFO 251509 RRA
TCDCP2

TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 45
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
500 AM HST SAT AUG 25 2018

DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BURST OF
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF LANE, WHICH
WAS NEARLY TOTALLY EXPOSED FRIDAY EVENING. LIGHTNING HAS ALSO BEEN
PERSISTENT NEAR THE CORE OF THIS DEEP CONVECTION. MORE IMPORTANTLY,
WE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO SEE THE APPARENT CENTER OF CIRCULATION IN THE
RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA, WHICH HELPS OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE LATEST
LOCATION AND MOTION. LANE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN, SO TAKING A BLEND OF
THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, WE HAVE LOWERED THE
INITIAL INTENSITY TO 50 KNOTS.

THE LATEST MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 350/3 KNOTS. THE CURRENT
TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT THROUGH 36
HOURS, WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM DAYS 2 THROUGH 5. THIS FORECAST
CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE HWRF, AND IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS
MODELS SUCH AS TVCN, GFEX AND HCCA. THERE ARE ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES IN
THE TRACK FORECAST COMPARED WITH THE PREVIOUS FROM DAYS 2 THROUGH 5.
LANE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING DUE TO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF
GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS. THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST HAS LANE
BECOMING POST-TROPICAL BY DAY 4. ASSUMING THIS LOW SURVIVES, IT MAY
EVENTUALLY BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL GALE LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE
NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY DAY 5.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. EFFECTS FROM TROPICAL STORMS CAN AND DO EXTEND WELL FROM THE
CENTER. RAIN BANDS AROUND THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF LANE
ARE STILL BRINGING PERSISTENT FLOODING RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF THE

2018-08-25 15:31

WTPA42 PHFO 251509
TCDCP2

Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number 45
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
500 AM HST Sat Aug 25 2018

During the past few hours, satellite imagery shows a burst of
convection has developed near the circulation center of Lane, which
was nearly totally exposed Friday evening. Lightning has also been
persistent near the core of this deep convection. More importantly,
we have been able to see the apparent center of circulation in the
radar reflectivity data, which helps our confidence in the latest
location and motion. Lane continues to weaken, so taking a blend of
the latest satellite intensity estimates, we have lowered the
initial intensity to 50 knots.

The latest motion for this advisory is 350/3 knots. The current
track forecast has been nudged slightly to the right through 36
hours, with little change from days 2 through 5. This forecast
closely follows the HWRF, and is to the right of the consensus
models such as TVCN, GFEX and HCCA. There are only subtle changes in
the track forecast compared with the previous from days 2 through 5.
Lane is expected to continue weakening due to vertical wind shear of
greater than 30 knots. The latest intensity forecast has Lane
becoming post-tropical by day 4. Assuming this low survives, it may
eventually become an extratropical gale low in the vicinity of the
Northwestern Hawaiian Islands by day 5.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Effects from tropical storms can and do extend well from the
center. Rain bands around the northern and eastern periphery of Lane
are still bringing persistent flooding rainfall across parts of the
state. In addition, strong winds are also possible in these rain
bands. Winds will be accelerated over higher terrain, through gaps,
and where winds blow downslope. Winds will also be stronger at the
upper floors of high rise buildings.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 19.8N 158.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 20.2N 158.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 20.3N 160.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 20.2N 162.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 20.4N 163.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 21.2N 166.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 24.5N 168.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 30/1200Z 29.5N 172.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Houston

2018-08-25 15:31

WTPA32 PHFO 251452 RRA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
500 AM HST SAT AUG 25 2018

...LANE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE WESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 158.4W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSE OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR HAWAII
COUNTY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. OAHU
.. MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI, LANAI, MOLOKAI
AND KAHOOLAWE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM LANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 158.4 WEST. LANE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH (6 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION IS

2018-08-25 15:31

WTPA32 PHFO 251452
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lane Advisory Number 45
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
500 AM HST Sat Aug 25 2018

...LANE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE WESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 158.4W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSE OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for Hawaii
County.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Oahu
* Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai
and Kahoolawe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Kauai County...including the islands of Kauai and Niihau

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should monitor
the progress of Tropical Storm Lane.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lane was
located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 158.4 West. Lane is
moving toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue this morning. This will likely be followed by
a turn toward the west with an increase in forward speed starting
later today or tonight. This westward motion is forecast to continue
through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Lane will pass
south of Kauai and Niihau later today and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are still expected in and near
outer rain bands that will affect Oahu and Maui County today.
Tropical storm conditions are possible on Kauai starting later
today.

RAINFALL: Lane's outer rain bands will produce excessive rainfall
this weekend, which could lead to additional flash flooding and
landslides. Lane is expected to produce additional rain
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches in some areas. Localized storm total
amounts well in excess of 40 inches have already been observed along
the windward side of the Big Island.

SURF: Large swells generated by Lane will impact the Hawaiian
Islands. These swells will produce high surf along exposed south and
east shorelines today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM HST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Houston


2018-08-25 15:31

WTPA22 PHFO 251443 RRA
TCMCP2

TROPICAL STORM LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1500 UTC SAT AUG 25 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR HAWAII
COUNTY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. OAHU
. MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...LANAI...MOLOKAI
AND KAHOOLAWE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM LANE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 158.4W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 35NE 25SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 90SE 45SW 95NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 95NE 60SE 55SW 85NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 158.4W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 158.3W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 20.2N 158.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 95NE 80SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.3N 160.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

2018-08-25 15:31

WTPA22 PHFO 251443
TCMCP2

TROPICAL STORM LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1500 UTC SAT AUG 25 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR HAWAII
COUNTY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU
* MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...LANAI...MOLOKAI
AND KAHOOLAWE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM LANE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 158.4W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 35NE 25SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 90SE 45SW 95NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 95NE 60SE 55SW 85NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 158.4W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 158.3W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 20.2N 158.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 95NE 80SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.3N 160.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 95NE 70SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.2N 162.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 35SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 20.4N 163.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.2N 166.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 24.5N 168.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 29.5N 172.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 158.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON



2018-08-25 12:31

WTPA32 PHFO 251151 RRA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LANE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 44A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
200 AM HST SAT AUG 25 2018

...TROPICAL STORM LANE MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
SOUTH OF HAWAII...
...LANE'S OUTER RAIN BANDS PRODUCING SEVERE FLOODING ACROSS PARTS
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 158.4W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 185 MI...305 KM SSE OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. OAHU
. MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI, LANAI, MOLOKAI
AND KAHOOLAWE
. HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM LANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM HST (1200 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS

2018-08-25 12:31

WTPA32 PHFO 251151
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lane Intermediate Advisory Number 44A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
200 AM HST Sat Aug 25 2018

...TROPICAL STORM LANE MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
SOUTH OF HAWAII...
...LANE'S OUTER RAIN BANDS PRODUCING SEVERE FLOODING ACROSS PARTS
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 158.4W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 185 MI...305 KM SSE OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Oahu
* Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai
and Kahoolawe
* Hawaii County

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Kauai County...including the islands of Kauai and Niihau

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should monitor
the progress of Tropical Storm Lane.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM HST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lane was
located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 158.4 West. Lane is
moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through this morning. This
will likely be followed by a turn toward the west with an increase
in forward speed starting later today or tonight. This westward
motion is forecast to continue through Sunday. On the forecast
track, the center of Lane will pass south of Kauai and Niihau later
today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional weakening is forecast through Sunday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 130 miles (215 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are still expected in and near
outer rain bands that will affect Oahu, Maui County and the Big
Island today. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Kauai
starting later today.

RAINFALL: Lane's outer rain bands will produce excessive rainfall
this weekend, which could lead to additional flash flooding and
landslides. Lane is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 20 inches in some areas. Localized storm total amounts well
in excess of 40 inches have already been observed along the windward
side of the Big Island.

SURF: Large swells generated by Lane will impact the Hawaiian
Islands. These swells will produce high surf along exposed south and
east shorelines through this morning.

TORNADO: Isolated tornados are possible through this morning across
parts of the Big Island, Maui County and Oahu.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Houston


2018-08-25 09:31

WTPN31 PHNC 251000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14E (LANE) WARNING NR 044
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 19.3N 158.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 158.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 19.8N 159.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 19.9N 160.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 19.9N 161.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 20.0N 163.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 20.7N 166.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 23.0N 168.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 27.5N 170.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
251000Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 158.6W.
TROPICAL STORM 14E (LANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 123 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF HICKAM AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
250600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251600Z, 252200Z, 260400Z AND
261000Z.//
NNNN

2018-08-25 09:31

WTPA42 PHFO 250910 RRA
TCDCP2

TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 44
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1100 PM HST FRI AUG 24 2018

THE THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM LANE ARE NOW FAR
REMOVED FROM THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). MOST
OF THIS DEEP CONVECTION IS IN OUTER RAIN BANDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. NEEDLESS TO SAY, SEVERE FLOODING IS
OCCURRING DUE TO THIS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE BIG ISLAND WHERE OVER 40
INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN ALONG PARTS OF THE WINDWARD SECTIONS.
LANE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN, SO TAKING A BLEND OF THE LATEST SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES, WE HAVE LOWERED THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 55
KNOTS.

THE LATEST MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 335/3 KNOTS. LANE IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE WEAKENING DUE TO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
AS A RESULT, THE EXPOSED LLCC WILL LIKELY TRACK SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON
SATURDAY. THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE
RIGHT THROUGH 36 HOURS, WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT
LOW. ASSUMING THIS LOW SURVIVES, IT MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME AN
EXTRATROPICAL GALE LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS BY DAY 5.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. EFFECTS FROM TROPICAL STORMS CAN AND DO EXTEND WELL FROM THE
CENTER. RAIN BANDS AROUND THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF LANE
ARE STILL BRINGING PERSISTENT FLOODING RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF THE
STATE. IN ADDITION, DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THESE RAIN BANDS. WINDS WILL BE ACCELERATED OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN, THROUGH GAPS, AND WHERE WINDS BLOW DOWNSLOPE. WINDS WILL

2018-08-25 09:31

WTPA42 PHFO 250910
TCDCP2

Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number 44
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1100 PM HST Fri Aug 24 2018

The thunderstorms associated with Tropical Storm Lane are now far
removed from the exposed low-level circulation center (LLCC). Most
of this deep convection is in outer rain bands across the eastern
and central Hawaiian Islands. Needless to say, severe flooding is
occurring due to this, especially over the Big Island where over 40
inches of rain have fallen along parts of the windward sections.
Lane continues to weaken, so taking a blend of the latest satellite
intensity estimates, we have lowered the initial intensity to 55
knots.

The latest motion for this advisory is 335/3 knots. Lane is expected
to continue weakening due to vertical wind shear of 25 to 30 knots.
As a result, the exposed LLCC will likely track slowly
north-northwestward tonight, followed by a turn toward the west on
Saturday. The latest track forecast has been nudged slightly to the
right through 36 hours, when it is expected to weaken to a remnant
low. Assuming this low survives, it may eventually become an
extratropical gale low in the vicinity of the Northwestern Hawaiian
Islands by day 5.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Effects from tropical storms can and do extend well from the
center. Rain bands around the northern and eastern periphery of Lane
are still bringing persistent flooding rainfall across parts of the
state. In addition, damaging winds and isolated tornados are also
possible in these rain bands. Winds will be accelerated over higher
terrain, through gaps, and where winds blow downslope. Winds will
also be stronger at the upper floors of high rise buildings.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 19.4N 158.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 19.8N 159.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 19.9N 160.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 19.9N 161.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/0600Z 20.0N 163.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/0600Z 20.7N 166.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/0600Z 23.0N 168.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 30/0600Z 27.5N 170.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Houston

2018-08-25 09:31

WTPA32 PHFO 250852 RRA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1100 PM HST FRI AUG 24 2018

...TROPICAL STORM LANE MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
SOUTH OF HAWAII...
...LANE'S OUTER RAIN BANDS PRODUCING SEVERE FLOODING ACROSS PARTS
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 158.5W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSE OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. OAHU
. MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI, LANAI, MOLOKAI
AND KAHOOLAWE
. HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM LANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS

2018-08-25 09:31

WTPA32 PHFO 250852
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lane Advisory Number 44
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1100 PM HST Fri Aug 24 2018

...TROPICAL STORM LANE MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
SOUTH OF HAWAII...
...LANE'S OUTER RAIN BANDS PRODUCING SEVERE FLOODING ACROSS PARTS
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 158.5W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSE OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Oahu
* Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai
and Kahoolawe
* Hawaii County

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Kauai County...including the islands of Kauai and Niihau

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should monitor
the progress of Tropical Storm Lane.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lane was
located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 158.5 West. Lane is
moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Saturday morning.
This will likely be followed by a turn toward the west with an
increase in forward speed starting Saturday afternoon. This
westward motion is forecast to continue through Sunday. On the
forecast track, the center of Lane will pass south of Kauai and
Niihau on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional weakening is forecast through this weekend, and
Lane may become a remnant low by Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 130 miles (215 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are still expected in and near
outer rain bands that will affect Oahu, Maui County, and the Big
Island tonight into Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
on Kauai starting Saturday.

RAINFALL: Lane's outer rain bands will produce excessive rainfall
this weekend, which could lead to additional flash flooding and
landslides. Lane is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 20 inches in some areas. Localized storm total amounts in
excess of 40 inches have already been observed along the windward
side of the Big Island.

SURF: Large swells generated by Lane will impact the Hawaiian
Islands tonight. These swells will produce high surf along exposed
south and east shorelines through early Saturday.

TORNADO: Isolated tornados are possible from tonight into early
Saturday across parts of the Big Island, Maui County and Oahu.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM HST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Houston


2018-08-25 09:31

WTPA22 PHFO 250843 RRA
TCMCP2

TROPICAL STORM LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
0900 UTC SAT AUG 25 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. OAHU
. MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...LANAI...MOLOKAI
AND KAHOOLAWE
. HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM LANE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 158.5W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 25SE 15SW 35NW.
34 KT.......115NE 90SE 45SW 95NW.
12 FT SEAS..140NE 100SE 80SW 140NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 158.5W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 158.4W

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 19.8N 159.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...105NE 85SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.9N 160.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 90NW.

2018-08-25 09:31

WTPA22 PHFO 250843
TCMCP2

TROPICAL STORM LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
0900 UTC SAT AUG 25 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU
* MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...LANAI...MOLOKAI
AND KAHOOLAWE
* HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM LANE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 158.5W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 25SE 15SW 35NW.
34 KT.......115NE 90SE 45SW 95NW.
12 FT SEAS..140NE 100SE 80SW 140NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 158.5W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 158.4W

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 19.8N 159.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...105NE 85SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.9N 160.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.9N 161.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 20.0N 163.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 20.7N 166.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 23.0N 168.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 27.5N 170.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 158.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON



2018-08-25 07:31

WTPA32 PHFO 250704 RRA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LANE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 43A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
800 PM HST FRI AUG 24 2018

...TROPICAL STORM LANE NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTH OF HAWAII...
....LANE'S OUTER RAIN BANDS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL FLOODING
AND DAMAGING WINDS TO PARTS OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM HST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 158.4W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM W OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NEARLY STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. OAHU
.. MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI, LANAI, MOLOKAI AND
KAHOOLAWE
.. HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM LANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM HST (0600 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 158.4 WEST. LANE

2018-08-25 07:31

WTPA32 PHFO 250704
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lane Intermediate Advisory Number 43A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
800 PM HST Fri Aug 24 2018

...TROPICAL STORM LANE NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTH OF HAWAII...
...LANE'S OUTER RAIN BANDS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL FLOODING
AND DAMAGING WINDS TO PARTS OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM HST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 158.4W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM W OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NEARLY STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Oahu
* Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe
* Hawaii County

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Kauai County...including the islands of Kauai and Niihau

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should monitor
the progress of Tropical Storm Lane.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM HST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lane was
located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 158.4 West. Lane
appears to be nearly stationary, but it is expected to begin
moving slowly toward the northwest later tonight, followed by a
turn toward the west with an increase in forward speed starting
Saturday. This westward motion is forecast to continue through
this weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Lane will pass
south of Kauai and Niihau on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast through this weekend, and Lane may
become a remnant low by late Saturday or Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are still expected in and near
rain bands that will affect Oahu, Maui County, and the Big Island
tonight into Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible on
Kauai starting Saturday.

RAINFALL: Excessive rainfall remains possible into the weekend,
which could lead to additional flash flooding and landslides.
Lane is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20
inches in some areas. Localized storm total amounts up to 40 inches
are possible, mainly along the windward side of the Big Island where
over 30 inches of rain has already fallen in some areas.

SURF: Large swells generated by Lane will impact the Hawaiian
Islands into the weekend. These swells will produce high surf along
exposed south and east shorelines through Saturday.

TORNADO: Isolated tornados are possible from tonight into early
Saturday across parts of the Big Island, Maui County and Oahu.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Houston

2018-08-25 06:31

WTPA32 PHFO 250602 RRA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LANE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 43A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
800 PM HST FRI AUG 24 2018

...TROPICAL STORM LANE NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTH OF HAWAII...
....LANE'S OUTER RAIN BANDS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL FLOODING
AND DAMAGING WINDS TO PARTS OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM HST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 158.4W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM W OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NEARLY STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. OAHU
.. MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI, LANAI, MOLOKAI AND
KAHOOLAWE
.. HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM LANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM HST (0600 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 158.4 WEST. LANE

2018-08-25 06:31

WTPA32 PHFO 250602
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lane Intermediate Advisory Number 43A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
800 PM HST Fri Aug 24 2018

...TROPICAL STORM LANE NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTH OF HAWAII...
...LANE'S OUTER RAIN BANDS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL FLOODING
AND DAMAGING WINDS TO PARTS OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM HST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 158.4W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM W OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NEARLY STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Oahu
* Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe
* Hawaii County

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Kauai County...including the islands of Kauai and Niihau

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should monitor
the progress of Tropical Storm Lane.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM HST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lane was
located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 158.4 West. Lane
appears to be nearly stationary, but it is expected to begin
moving slowly toward the northwest later tonight, followed by a
turn toward the west with an increase in forward speed starting
Saturday. This westward motion is forecast to continue through
this weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Lane will pass
south of Kauai and Niihau on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast through this weekend, and Lane may
become a remnant low by late Saturday or Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are still expected in and near
rain bands that will affect Oahu, Maui County, and the Big Island
tonight into Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible on
Kauai starting Saturday.

RAINFALL: Excessive rainfall remains possible into the weekend,
which could lead to additional flash flooding and landslides.
Lane is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20
inches in some areas. Localized storm total amounts up to 40 inches
are possible, mainly along the windward side of the Big Island where
over 30 inches of rain has already fallen in some areas.

SURF: Large swells generated by Lane will impact the Hawaiian
Islands into the weekend. These swells will produce high surf along
exposed south and east shorelines through Saturday.

TORNADO: Isolated tornados are possible from tonight into early
Saturday across parts of the Big Island, Maui County and Oahu.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Houston


2018-08-25 04:31

WTPA42 PHFO 250323 RRA
TCDCP2

TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 43...CORRECTED
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
500 PM HST FRI AUG 24 2018

IT TOOK AWHILE...BUT ONCE THE 35 TO 40 KT OF SHEAR BEGAN TO
IMPACT THE CORE CONVECTION FROM LANE, THE BATTLE ENDED QUICKLY. A
VERY HELPFUL AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS OVER LANE AT 2259 UTC
SHOWED THE CIRCULATION CENTER WAS NOW MAINLY COMPRISED OF LOW AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS COMPLETELY DETACHED FROM THE REMAINING POCKETS OF
DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. EVEN A BLEND OF THE
DVORAK FINAL-T AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES APPEARED TO BE TOO
GENEROUS, BASED ON THE VERY RAPID DEGRADATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN
AND THE WSR-88D RADAR VELOCITIES. SETTLED ON 60 KT FOR THE CURRENT
INTENSITY.

THE NEW MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/3, BUT THIS IS A BIT UNCERTAIN
UNTIL WE HAVE MORE TIME TO EXAMINE THIS CHANGE. THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION OF LANE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN THE FACE OF
CONTINUED STRONG SHEAR, AND DRIVEN ON A WESTWARD TRACK BY THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN I'VE SEEN
IT IN AWHILE. IF IT SURVIVES LONG ENOUGH, THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
LANE MAY GET A NEW LEASE ON LIFE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE
NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. IN ANY CASE, WE WILL BE HAPPY TO GET RID
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN OUR VICINITY. UNTIL THEN, PEOPLE SHOULD
BE MINDFUL OF ADDITIONAL IMPACTS THAT CAN STILL OCCUR UNTIL LANE
DEPARTS.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. RAINBANDS AROUND THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF LANE CAN
STILL BRING PERSISTENT, FLOODING RAINFALL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
EFFECTS FROM TROPICAL STORMS CAN AND DO EXTEND WELL FROM THE CENTER.

2018-08-25 04:31

WTNT82 EGRR 250407

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 25.08.2018

TROPICAL STORM LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.1N 158.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.08.2018 0 19.1N 158.2W 1000 39
1200UTC 25.08.2018 12 19.4N 158.7W 1004 34
0000UTC 26.08.2018 24 19.8N 159.6W 1005 34
1200UTC 26.08.2018 36 19.7N 161.3W 1006 31
0000UTC 27.08.2018 48 19.6N 163.3W 1006 29
1200UTC 27.08.2018 60 19.2N 165.0W 1006 25
0000UTC 28.08.2018 72 19.2N 165.9W 1006 25
1200UTC 28.08.2018 84 19.6N 167.3W 1006 26
0000UTC 29.08.2018 96 20.8N 168.0W 1006 32
1200UTC 29.08.2018 108 22.6N 169.1W 1007 30
0000UTC 30.08.2018 120 25.9N 170.3W 1007 41
1200UTC 30.08.2018 132 28.7N 172.9W 1005 42
0000UTC 31.08.2018 144 29.9N 177.0W 995 44

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 15.4N 119.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.08.2018 84 15.4N 119.6W 1006 24
0000UTC 29.08.2018 96 15.7N 122.3W 1005 23
1200UTC 29.08.2018 108 15.9N 125.0W 1004 26
0000UTC 30.08.2018 120 16.1N 127.5W 1003 28
1200UTC 30.08.2018 132 16.7N 130.1W 1000 33
0000UTC 31.08.2018 144 18.0N 132.2W 999 38


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 250407

2018-08-25 04:31

WTNT80 EGRR 250407

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 25.08.2018

TROPICAL STORM LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.1N 158.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 25.08.2018 19.1N 158.2W WEAK
12UTC 25.08.2018 19.4N 158.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.08.2018 19.8N 159.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.08.2018 19.7N 161.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.08.2018 19.6N 163.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.08.2018 19.2N 165.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.08.2018 19.2N 165.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.08.2018 19.6N 167.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.08.2018 20.8N 168.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2018 22.6N 169.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2018 25.9N 170.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2018 28.7N 172.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2018 29.9N 177.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 15.4N 119.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 28.08.2018 15.4N 119.6W WEAK
00UTC 29.08.2018 15.7N 122.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2018 15.9N 125.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2018 16.1N 127.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2018 16.7N 130.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2018 18.0N 132.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 250407

2018-08-25 03:31

WTPN31 PHNC 250400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14E (LANE) WARNING NR 043
DOWNGRADED FROM HURRICANE 14E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 19.1N 158.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 158.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 19.4N 158.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 19.7N 159.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 19.7N 160.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 19.7N 161.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 20.4N 164.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 22.0N 166.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 25.9N 167.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
250400Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 158.5W.
TROPICAL STORM 14E (LANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 134 NM SOUTH OF
HICKAM AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 251000Z, 251600Z, 252200Z AND 260400Z.//
NNNN

2018-08-25 03:31

WTPA42 PHFO 250323
TCDCP2

Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number 43...Corrected
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
500 PM HST Fri Aug 24 2018

It took awhile...but once the 35 to 40 kt of shear began to
impact the core convection from Lane, the battle ended quickly. A
very helpful AMSR2 89 GHz microwave pass over Lane at 2259 UTC
showed the circulation center was now mainly comprised of low and
mid level clouds completely detached from the remaining pockets of
deep convection to the northeast of the center. Even a blend of the
Dvorak final-T and current intensity estimates appeared to be too
generous, based on the very rapid degradation of the cloud pattern
and the WSR-88D radar velocities. Settled on 60 kt for the current
intensity.

The new motion estimate is 315/3, but this is a bit uncertain
until we have more time to examine this change. The low level
circulation of Lane is expected to continue to weaken in the face of
continued strong shear, and driven on a westward track by the low
level flow. The track guidance is in better agreement than I've seen
it in awhile. If it survives long enough, the global models show
Lane may get a new lease on life as an extratropical low over the
Northwest Hawaiian Islands. In any case, we will be happy to get rid
of the tropical cyclone in our vicinity. Until then, people should
be mindful of additional impacts that can still occur until Lane
departs.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Rainbands around the northern and eastern periphery of Lane can
still bring persistent, flooding rainfall and damaging winds.
Effects from tropical storms can and do extend well from the center.
Winds will be accelerated over higher terrain, through gaps, and
where winds blow downslope. Winds will also be stronger at the
upper floors of high rise buildings.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 19.2N 158.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 19.4N 158.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 19.7N 159.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 19.7N 160.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/0000Z 19.7N 161.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/0000Z 20.4N 164.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/0000Z 22.0N 166.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 30/0000Z 25.9N 167.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster R Ballard

2018-08-25 03:31

WTPA42 PHFO 250308 RRA
TCDCP2

TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 43
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
500 PM HST FRI AUG 24 2018

IT TOOK AWHILE...BUT ONCE THE 35 TO 40 KT OF SHEAR BEGAN TO
IMPACT THE CORE CONVECTION FROM LANE, THE BATTLE ENDED QUICKLY. A
VERY HELPFUL 89 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS OVER LANE AROUND 0000 UTC SHOWED
THE CIRCULATION CENTER WAS NOW MAINLY COMPRISED OF LOW AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS COMPLETELY DETACHED FROM THE REMAINING POCKETS OF DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. EVEN A BLEND OF THE
DVORAK FINAL-T AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES APPEARED TO BE TOO
GENEROUS, BASED ON THE VERY RAPID DEGRADATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN
AND THE WSR-88D RADAR VELOCITIES. SETTLED ON 60 KT FOR THE CURRENT
INTENSITY.

THE NEW MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/3, BUT THIS IS A BIT UNCERTAIN
UNTIL WE HAVE MORE TIME TO EXAMINE THIS CHANGE. THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION OF LANE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN THE FACE OF
CONTINUED STRONG SHEAR, AND DRIVEN ON A WESTWARD TRACK BY THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN I'VE SEEN
IT IN AWHILE. IF IT SURVIVES LONG ENOUGH, THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
LANE MAY GET A NEW LEASE ON LIFE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE
NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. IN ANY CASE, WE WILL BE HAPPY TO GET RID
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN OUR VICINITY. UNTIL THEN, PEOPLE SHOULD
BE MINDFUL OF ADDITIONAL IMPACTS THAT CAN STILL OCCUR UNTIL LANE
DEPARTS.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. RAINBANDS AROUND THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF LANE CAN
STILL BRING PERSISTENT, FLOODING RAINFALL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
EFFECTS FROM TROPICAL STORMS CAN AND DO EXTEND WELL FROM THE CENTER.

2018-08-25 03:31

WTPA42 PHFO 250308
TCDCP2

Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number 43
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
500 PM HST Fri Aug 24 2018

It took awhile...but once the 35 to 40 kt of shear began to
impact the core convection from Lane, the battle ended quickly. A
very helpful 89 GHz microwave pass over Lane around 0000 UTC showed
the circulation center was now mainly comprised of low and mid
level clouds completely detached from the remaining pockets of deep
convection to the northeast of the center. Even a blend of the
Dvorak final-T and current intensity estimates appeared to be too
generous, based on the very rapid degradation of the cloud pattern
and the WSR-88D radar velocities. Settled on 60 kt for the current
intensity.

The new motion estimate is 315/3, but this is a bit uncertain
until we have more time to examine this change. The low level
circulation of Lane is expected to continue to weaken in the face of
continued strong shear, and driven on a westward track by the low
level flow. The track guidance is in better agreement than I've seen
it in awhile. If it survives long enough, the global models show
Lane may get a new lease on life as an extratropical low over the
Northwest Hawaiian Islands. In any case, we will be happy to get rid
of the tropical cyclone in our vicinity. Until then, people should
be mindful of additional impacts that can still occur until Lane
departs.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Rainbands around the northern and eastern periphery of Lane can
still bring persistent, flooding rainfall and damaging winds.
Effects from tropical storms can and do extend well from the center.
Winds will be accelerated over higher terrain, through gaps, and
where winds blow downslope. Winds will also be stronger at the
upper floors of high rise buildings.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 19.2N 158.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 19.4N 158.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 19.7N 159.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 19.7N 160.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/0000Z 19.7N 161.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/0000Z 20.4N 164.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/0000Z 22.0N 166.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 30/0000Z 25.9N 167.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster R Ballard

2018-08-25 03:31

WTPA32 PHFO 250243 RRA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
500 PM HST FRI AUG 24 2018

...LANE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM SOUTH OF OAHU BUT RAIN BANDS
WILL STILL BRING MORE FLOODING AND DAMAGING WINDS TO PARTS OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 158.4W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM W OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR OAHU, MAUI, MOLOKAI, LANAI, AND
KAHOOLAWE HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. OAHU
.. MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI, LANAI, MOLOKAI AND
KAHOOLAWE
.. HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM LANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

2018-08-25 03:31

WTPA32 PHFO 250243
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lane Advisory Number 43
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
500 PM HST Fri Aug 24 2018

...LANE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM SOUTH OF OAHU BUT RAIN BANDS
WILL STILL BRING MORE FLOODING AND DAMAGING WINDS TO PARTS OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 158.4W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM W OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning for Oahu, Maui, Molokai, Lanai, and
Kahoolawe has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Oahu
* Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe
* Hawaii County

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Kauai County...including the islands of Kauai and Niihau

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should monitor
the progress of Tropical Storm Lane.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lane was
located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 158.4 West. Lane is
now moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h) and this motion
is expected to become more westerly with an increase in forward
speed over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the
center of Lane will pass south of Kauai on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
and Lane may become a remnant low later Saturday or Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are still expected in and near
rain bands that will affect Oahu, Maui County, and the Big Island
tonight into Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible on
Kauai starting Saturday.

RAINFALL: Excessive rainfall remains possible into the weekend,
which could lead to additional flash flooding and landslides.
Lane is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20
inches in some areas. Localized storm total amounts up to 40 inches
are possible, mainly on the windward side of the Big Island where
over 30 inches of rain has already fallen in some areas.

SURF: Large swells generated by Lane will impact the Hawaiian
Islands into the weekend. These swells will produce high surf along
exposed south and east shorelines through Saturday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM HST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster R Ballard


2018-08-25 03:31

WTPA22 PHFO 250234 RRA
TCMCP2

TROPICAL STORM LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
0300 UTC SAT AUG 25 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR OAHU...MAUI...MOLOKAI...LANAI...AND
KAHOOLAWE HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. OAHU
.. MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...LANAI...MOLOKAI
AND KAHOOLAWE
.. HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM LANE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 158.4W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 25SE 15SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 140SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 158.4W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 158.3W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 19.4N 158.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.

2018-08-25 03:31

WTPA22 PHFO 250234
TCMCP2

TROPICAL STORM LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
0300 UTC SAT AUG 25 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR OAHU...MAUI...MOLOKAI...LANAI...AND
KAHOOLAWE HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU
* MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...LANAI...MOLOKAI
AND KAHOOLAWE
* HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM LANE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 158.4W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 25SE 15SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 140SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 158.4W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 158.3W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 19.4N 158.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.7N 159.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.7N 160.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 19.7N 161.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 20.4N 164.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 22.0N 166.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 25.9N 167.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 158.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD



2018-08-25 01:31

WTPN31 PHNC 250100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 14E (LANE) WARNING NR 042
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 19.4N 157.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4N 157.9W
---
FORECASTS:
06 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 19.6N 157.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 12 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 19.7N 157.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 20.2N 158.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 20.2N 159.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 20.1N 160.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 20.4N 163.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 22.4N 165.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 26.7N 168.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
242200Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 157.8W.
HURRICANE 14E (LANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 114 NM SOUTH OF
HICKAM AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 250400Z, 251000Z, 251600Z AND 252200Z.//
NNNN

2018-08-25 00:31

WTPA42 PHFO 242351 RRA
TCDCP2

HURRICANE LANE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 42
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
200 PM HST FRI AUG 24 2018

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY REDUCES THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF LANE TO 75
KT BASED ON RAPID WEAKENING OF THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD AND RADAR
PATTERNS OBSERVED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, AND ADJUSTS THE INTENSITY
AND WIND RADII FORECAST TO BETTER AGREE WITH CURRENT TRENDS. THERE
ARE NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY TAKES THE
PLACE OF THE 2 PM INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. ONE SHOULD NOT INTERPRET THE FORECAST WESTWARD TURN SOUTH OF THE
ISLANDS AS A LOWER THREAT TO THE ISLANDS. IF LANE RETAINS CENTRAL
CORE CONVECTION LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED, THE WESTWARD TURN WOULD
HAPPEN LATER, WHICH COULD BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO MAUI COUNTY
OR OAHU. THIS SOLUTION IS STILL PLAUSIBLE AT THIS TIME. REGARDLESS
OF WHETHER LANE MAKES LANDFALL, SEVERE IMPACTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
AND THE EFFECTS CAN EXTEND FAR TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER
OF LANE.

2. LANE WILL REMAIN DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO THE CENTRAL HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS AS A HURRICANE TODAY INTO TONIGHT BRINGING DAMAGING WINDS
TO SOME AREAS. TERRAIN EFFECTS CAN CAUSE STRONG LOCALIZED
ACCELERATION OF THE WIND THROUGH GAPS AND WHERE WINDS BLOW
DOWNSLOPE. THESE ACCELERATION AREAS WILL SHIFT WITH TIME AS LANE
PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE ISLANDS. WINDS WILL ALSO BE STRONGER AT THE
UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.

3. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF LANE GREATLY INCREASES THE THREAT FOR
PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO MAJOR FLASH
FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES IN SOME AREAS.

4. HIGH AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING SURF CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG EXPOSED

2018-08-25 00:31

WTPA42 PHFO 242351
TCDCP2

Hurricane Lane Special Discussion Number 42
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
200 PM HST Fri Aug 24 2018

This special advisory reduces the current intensity of Lane to 75
kt based on rapid weakening of the associated cloud and radar
patterns observed over the past few hours, and adjusts the intensity
and wind radii forecast to better agree with current trends. There
are no other changes at this time. This special advisory takes the
place of the 2 pm intermediate advisory.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. One should not interpret the forecast westward turn south of the
islands as a lower threat to the islands. If Lane retains central
core convection longer than anticipated, the westward turn would
happen later, which could bring hurricane conditions to Maui County
or Oahu. This solution is still plausible at this time. Regardless
of whether Lane makes landfall, severe impacts are still possible
and the effects can extend far to the north and east of the center
of Lane.

2. Lane will remain dangerously close to the central Hawaiian
Islands as a hurricane today into tonight bringing damaging winds
to some areas. Terrain effects can cause strong localized
acceleration of the wind through gaps and where winds blow
downslope. These acceleration areas will shift with time as Lane
passes near or over the islands. Winds will also be stronger at the
upper floors of high rise buildings.

3. The slow movement of Lane greatly increases the threat for
prolonged heavy rainfall. This is expected to lead to major flash
flooding and landslides in some areas.

4. High and potentially damaging surf can be expected along exposed
south facing shorelines today through Saturday, which could cause
severe beach erosion in some areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0000Z 19.6N 157.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 19.7N 157.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 20.2N 158.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 20.2N 159.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 20.1N 160.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 20.4N 163.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 22.4N 165.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 26.7N 168.5W 25 KT 30 MPH

$$
Forecaster Ballard

2018-08-25 00:31

WTPA32 PHFO 242343 RRA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LANE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 42
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
200 PM HST FRI AUG 24 2018

...LANE WEAKENING QUICKLY JUST SOUTH OF HAWAII BUT
FLOODING RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS REMAIN A THREAT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 157.8W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM W OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. OAHU
.. MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI, LANAI, MOLOKAI AND
KAHOOLAWE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD ALREADY BE COMPLETE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE LANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR

2018-08-25 00:31

WTPA32 PHFO 242343
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Special Advisory Number 42
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
200 PM HST Fri Aug 24 2018

...LANE WEAKENING QUICKLY JUST SOUTH OF HAWAII BUT
FLOODING RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS REMAIN A THREAT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 157.8W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM W OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Oahu
* Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Hawaii County

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Kauai County...including the islands of Kauai and Niihau

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should already be complete.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should monitor
the progress of Hurricane Lane.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM HST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lane was located
near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 157.8 West. Lane is moving
toward the north-northeast near 2 mph (4 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
west is anticipated on Saturday, with an increase in forward speed.
The center of Lane will remain close to central Hawaiian islands
today and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are already occurring on the Big
Island, Maui County and Oahu. Hurricane conditions are expected over
portions of of Maui County and Oahu starting tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are possible on Kauai starting Saturday.

RAINFALL: Rain bands from Lane will continue to affect the main
Hawaiian Islands with excessive rainfall possible into the weekend.
These rains could lead to additional major flash flooding and
landslides. Lane is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 20 inches in some areas. Localized storm total amounts up to
40 inches are possible, mainly on the windward side of the Big
Island where over 30 inches of rain has already fallen in some
areas.

SURF: Large swells generated by the slow moving hurricane will
impact the Hawaiian Islands into the weekend. These swells
will produce high and possibly damaging surf along exposed south
shorelines today through Saturday. In addition, a prolonged period
of high surf may lead to significant coastal erosion.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM HST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster R Ballard


2018-08-25 00:31

WTPA22 PHFO 242339 RRA
TCMCP2

HURRICANE LANE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
0000 UTC SAT AUG 25 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. OAHU
.. MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI... LANAI... MOLOKAI
AND
KAHOOLAWE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD ALREADY BE COMPLETE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE LANE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 157.8W AT 25/0000Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 55NE 45SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 140SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

2018-08-25 00:31

WTPA22 PHFO 242339
TCMCP2

HURRICANE LANE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
0000 UTC SAT AUG 25 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU
* MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI... LANAI... MOLOKAI
AND
KAHOOLAWE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD ALREADY BE COMPLETE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE LANE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 157.8W AT 25/0000Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 55NE 45SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 140SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 157.8W AT 25/0000Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 157.9W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 19.7N 157.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 55NE 45SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 20.2N 158.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...110NE 95SE 50SW 95NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 20.2N 159.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 85SE 50SW 85NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.1N 160.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 20.4N 163.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 22.4N 165.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 26.7N 168.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 157.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD



2018-08-24 21:31

WTPN31 PHNC 242200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 14E (LANE) WARNING NR 041
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 18.9N 157.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 157.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 19.7N 157.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 20.2N 158.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 20.2N 159.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 20.1N 160.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 20.4N 163.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 22.4N 165.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 26.7N 168.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
242200Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 157.8W.
HURRICANE 14E (LANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 141 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF BRADSHAW AAF, HAS TRACKED AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 250400Z, 251000Z, 251600Z AND 252200Z.//
NNNN

2018-08-24 21:31

WTPA42 PHFO 242110 RRA
TCDCP2

HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 41
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1100 AM HST FRI AUG 24 2018

LANE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE AGAINST 30 TO 40 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR AS ANALYZED BY THE UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS. THE CDO CONTINUES
TO BE VERY ASYMMETRIC AND ELLIPTICAL. RADAR, LIGHTNING DATA, AND
1645Z WINDSAT PASS INDICATED THAT THE ACTIVE CONVECTION HAS BEEN
SHUNTED TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER, INDICATING THAT THE CORE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS GETTING
TORN APART BY THE SHEAR. SUBJECTIVE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE
UNANIMOUS AT 5.0, AND CIMSS-ADT HAD 5.1. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS
LOWERED TO 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE A RATHER UNCERTAIN 360/4. THE CHANGES TO
LANE'S STRUCTURE MAKE THE NEAR TERM TRACK FORECAST VERY DIFFICULT,
AS THE STEERING LAYER WILL BE RAPIDLY EVOLVING IN THE SHORT TERM.
THE PROXIMITY TO ISLAND TERRAIN MAKES THE STEERING FLOW EVEN MORE
COMPLEX, AT LEAST UNTIL THE VORTEX COMPLETELY SEPERATES FROM THE
PERSISTENT CONVECTION AS A SHALLOW LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. UNTIL
THEN, THE MOTION IS LIKELY TO BE SOMEWHAT SLOW AND ERRATIC. THE
RELIABLE TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLOW NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
DRIFT FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY AN ABRUPT SHIFT TOWARD THE
WEST AT SOME POINT AFTERWARD. THE CONSENSUS MODELS SHOW A GENERAL
WESTWARD MOTION FROM 24 THROUGH 96 HOURS, THEN TURNING MORE TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST
DURING THIS TIME WAS TO SLOW LANE'S FORWARD MOTION. IF ANYTHING IS
LEFT OF LANE BETWEEN 96 AND 120 HOURS, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION

2018-08-24 21:31

WTPA42 PHFO 242110
TCDCP2

Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 41
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1100 AM HST Fri Aug 24 2018

Lane continues to struggle against 30 to 40 kt of southwesterly
shear as analyzed by the UW-CIMSS shear analysis. The CDO continues
to be very asymmetric and elliptical. Radar, lightning data, and
1645z Windsat pass indicated that the active convection has been
shunted to the northwest through north of the low level circulation
center, indicating that the core of the tropical cyclone is getting
torn apart by the shear. Subjective current intensity estimates were
unanimous at 5.0, and CIMSS-ADT had 5.1. The initial intensity was
lowered to 90 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion estimate a rather uncertain 360/4. The changes to
Lane's structure make the near term track forecast very difficult,
as the steering layer will be rapidly evolving in the short term.
The proximity to island terrain makes the steering flow even more
complex, at least until the vortex completely seperates from the
persistent convection as a shallow low level circulation. Until
then, the motion is likely to be somewhat slow and erratic. The
reliable track guidance suggests a slow north or north-northeastward
drift for the next 12 hours, followed by an abrupt shift toward the
west at some point afterward. The consensus models show a general
westward motion from 24 through 96 hours, then turning more toward
the northwest. The only significant change to the track forecast
during this time was to slow Lane's forward motion. If anything is
left of Lane between 96 and 120 hours, the low level circulation
may gain latitude and try to merge with a large upper low over the
Northwestern Hawaiian Islands.

As long as Lane can maintain central deep convection, the weakening
trend will remain more gradual. More rapid weakening will commence
within 12 to 24 hours, once the convection is no longer able to
remain anchored to the low level circulation center. All of the
guidance indicates rather rapid weakening in the near term, and our
forecast agrees though is at the high end of the guidance in
deference to Lane's persistent core. Although the current forecast
retains Lane as a tropical cyclone through 5 days, it's very
possible that Lane will not last that long as the low level
circulation crosses underneath a band of very strong wind shear.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. One should not interpret the forecast westward turn south of the
islands as a lower threat to the islands. If Lane retains central
core convection longer than anticipated, the westward turn would
happen later, which could bring hurricane conditions to Maui County
or Oahu. This solution is still plausible at this time. Regardless
of whether Lane makes landfall, severe impacts are still possible
and the effects can extend far to the north and east of the center
of Lane.

2. Lane will remain dangerously close to the central Hawaiian
Islands as a hurricane today into tonight bringing damaging winds
to some areas. Terrain effects can cause strong localized
acceleration of the wind through gaps and where winds blow
downslope. These acceleration areas will shift with time as Lane
passes near or over the islands. Winds will also be stronger at the
upper floors of high rise buildings.

3. The slow movement of Lane greatly increases the threat for
prolonged heavy rainfall. This is expected to lead to major flash
flooding and landslides in some areas.

4. Life-threatening and damaging surf can be expected along exposed
shorelines with localized storm surge exacerbating the impacts of a
prolonged period of damaging surf. The prolonged period of large
surf will also likely produce severe beach erosion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 19.1N 157.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 19.7N 157.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 20.2N 158.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 20.2N 159.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 20.1N 160.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 20.4N 163.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 22.4N 165.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 26.7N 168.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster R Ballard

2018-08-24 21:31

WTPA32 PHFO 242051 RRA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1100 AM HST FRI AUG 24 2018

...SLOW-MOVING LANE CONTINUING TO BRING FLOODING RAINFALL AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS TO PARTS OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 157.9W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM WSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR KAUAI HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR KAUAI AND NIIHAU.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. OAHU
.. MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI, LANAI, MOLOKAI AND
KAHOOLAWE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD ALREADY BE COMPLETE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR

2018-08-24 21:31

WTPA32 PHFO 242051
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Advisory Number 41
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1100 AM HST Fri Aug 24 2018

...SLOW-MOVING LANE CONTINUING TO BRING FLOODING RAINFALL AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS TO PARTS OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 157.9W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM WSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch for Kauai has been changed to a Tropical Storm
Watch for Kauai and Niihau.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Oahu
* Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Hawaii County

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Kauai County...including the islands of Kauai and Niihau

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should already be complete.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should monitor
the progress of Hurricane Lane.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lane was located
near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 157.9 West. Lane is moving
toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the west is
anticipated on Saturday, with an increase in forward speed. The
center of Lane will remain dangerously close to portions of the
central Hawaiian islands later today and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are already occurring on the Big
Island, Maui County and Oahu. Hurricane conditions are expected over
portions of of Maui County and Oahu starting tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are possible on Kauai starting Saturday.

RAINFALL: Rain bands from Lane will continue to affect the main
Hawaiian Islands with excessive rainfall possible into the weekend.
These rains could lead to additional major flash flooding and
landslides. Lane is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 20 inches in some areas. Localized storm total amounts up to
40 inches are possible, mainly on the windward side of the Big
Island where over 30 inches of rain has already fallen in some
areas.

SURF: Very large swells generated by the slow moving hurricane will
severely impact the Hawaiian Islands into this weekend. These swells
will produce life-threatening and damaging surf along exposed
shorelines, particularly today through Saturday. In addition, a
prolonged period of extreme surf will also likely lead to
significant coastal erosion.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet
above normal tide levels along south and west facing shores near
the center of Lane. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM HST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster R Ballard


2018-08-24 21:31

WTPA22 PHFO 242039 RRA
TCMCP2

HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
2100 UTC FRI AUG 24 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR KAUAI HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR KAUAI AND NIIHAU.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. OAHU
.. MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI... LANAI... MOLOKAI
AND
KAHOOLAWE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD ALREADY BE COMPLETE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE LANE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 157.9W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 55NE 45SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 140SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL

2018-08-24 21:31

WTPA22 PHFO 242039
TCMCP2

HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
2100 UTC FRI AUG 24 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR KAUAI HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR KAUAI AND NIIHAU.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU
* MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI... LANAI... MOLOKAI
AND
KAHOOLAWE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD ALREADY BE COMPLETE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE LANE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 157.9W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 55NE 45SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 140SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 157.9W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 157.9W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 19.7N 157.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 55NE 45SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 20.2N 158.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...110NE 95SE 60SW 95NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 20.2N 159.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 35SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 85SE 50SW 85NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.1N 160.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 85NE 65SE 40SW 85NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 20.4N 163.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 45SE 25SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 22.4N 165.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 26.7N 168.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 157.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD



2018-08-24 19:31

WTPA62 PHFO 241857
TCUCP2

Hurricane Lane Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
900 AM HST Fri Aug 24 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE CRAWLING NORTH TOWARD THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...

The poorly defined eye of Hurricane Lane is being tracked by both
the North Kohala and Molokai WSR-88D radars as the tropical cyclone
moves northward toward the main Hawaiian Islands.

A summary of peak winds will be issued later this morning.

As 840 am HST
Lahaina, Maui 37 MPH(59 KM/H) Gusts 54 MPH (85 KM/H)

Radar based location of the low level center of Lane is
unreliable. This will be the last location based on radar, unless
development occurs. The previous location follows.

SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 158.0W
ABOUT 170 MI...274 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM WSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...170 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...3 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Lau

2018-08-24 19:31

WTPA62 PHFO 241856
TCUCP2

Hurricane Lane Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
900 AM HST Fri Aug 24 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE CRAWLING NORTH TOWARD THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...

The poorly defined eye of Hurricane Lane is being tracked by both
the North Kohala and Molokai WSR-88D radars as the tropical cyclone
moves northward toward the main Hawaiian Islands.

A summary of peak winds will be issued later this morning.

As 840 am HST
Lahaina, Maui 37 MPH(59 KM/H) Gusts 54 MPH (85 KM/H)

Radar based location of the low level center of Lane is
unreliable. This will be the last location based on radar, unless
development occurs. The previous location follows.

SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 158.0W
ABOUT 170 MI...274 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM WSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...170 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...3 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Lau

2018-08-24 18:31

WTPA62 PHFO 241751
TCUCP2

Hurricane Lane Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
700 AM HST Fri Aug 24 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH TOWARD THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING OCCURRING ON THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...

The poorly defined eye of Hurricane Lane is being tracked by both
the North Kohala and Molokai WSR-88D radars as the tropical cyclone
moves northward toward the main Hawaiian Islands.

A summary of peak winds will be issued later this morning.

As 640 am HST
Kamuela, Big Island 45 MPH(72 KM/H) Gusts 51 MPH (82 KM/H)


SUMMARY OF 700 AM HST...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 158.1W
Please note the eye of Hurricane Lane is poorly defined
ABOUT 171 MI...275 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 145 MI...233 KM WSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Lau

2018-08-24 18:31

WTPA32 PHFO 241807 RRA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LANE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 40A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
800 AM HST FRI AUG 24 2018

...HURRICANE LANE LURKING JUST SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS BRINGING
STRONG WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT FLOODING TO SOME AREAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 158.0W
ABOUT 170 MI...274 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM WSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...170 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...3 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. OAHU
.. MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI, LANAI, MOLOKAI AND
KAHOOLAWE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD ALREADY BE COMPLETE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE LANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN

2018-08-24 18:31

WTPA32 PHFO 241807
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Intermediate Advisory Number 40A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
800 AM HST Fri Aug 24 2018

...HURRICANE LANE LURKING JUST SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS BRINGING
STRONG WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT FLOODING TO SOME AREAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 158.0W
ABOUT 170 MI...274 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM WSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...170 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...3 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Oahu
* Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Hawaii County

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Kauai County...including the islands of Kauai and Niihau

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should already be complete.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should monitor
the progress of Hurricane Lane.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM HST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lane was
estimated by radar and satellite to be near latitude 18.8 North,
longitude 158.0 West. Lane is moving toward the north near 2 mph (3
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through
tonight. A turn toward the west is anticipated on Saturday, with an
increase in forward speed. On the latest forecast track, the center
of Lane will move dangerously close to portions of the central
Hawaiian islands later today and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (170 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional weakening is forecast later today and
tonight, but Lane is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane as it
approaches the islands. Further weakening is expected on Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

A weather station near Waimea on the Big Island recently reported
sustained winds of 45 mph (72 km/h) with gusts to 51 mph (82 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are already occurring on the Big
Island, Maui County and Oahu. These conditions will likely persist
today. Hurricane conditions are expected over some areas of Maui
County and Oahu starting tonight. Tropical storm or hurricane
conditions are possible on Kauai starting tonight or Saturday.

RAINFALL: Rain bands will continue to overspread the Hawaiian
Islands well ahead of Lane. Excessive rainfall associated with this
slow moving hurricane will continue to impact the Hawaiian Islands
into the weekend, leading to catastrophic and life-threatening flash
flooding and landslides. Lane is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 10 to 20 inches, with localized amounts up to 40
inches possible over portions of the Hawaiian Islands. Over 30
inches of rain has already fallen at a couple locations on the
windward side of the Big Island.

SURF: Very large swells generated by the slow moving hurricane will
severely impact the Hawaiian Islands into this weekend. These swells
will produce life-threatening and damaging surf along exposed
shorelines, particularly today through Saturday. In addition, a
prolonged period of extreme surf will also likely lead to
significant coastal erosion.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet
above normal tide levels along south and west facing shores near
the center of Lane. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster R Ballard


2018-08-24 17:31

WTPA62 PHFO 241704
TCUCP2

Hurricane Lane Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
600 AM HST Fri Aug 24 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH TOWARD THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING OCCURRING ON THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...

The poorly defined eye of Hurricane Lane is being tracked by both
the North Kohala and Molokai WSR-88D radars as the tropical cyclone
moves northward toward the main Hawaiian Islands.

A summary of peak winds will be issued later this morning.

As 640 am HST
Kamuela, Big Island 45 MPH(72 KM/H) Gusts 51 MPH (82 KM/H)


SUMMARY OF 700 AM HST...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 158.1W
Please note the eye of Hurricane Lane is poorly defined
ABOUT 171 MI...275 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 145 MI...233 KM WSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Lau

2018-08-24 16:31

WTPN31 PHNC 241600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 14E (LANE) WARNING NR 040
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 18.4N 158.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4N 158.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 19.4N 157.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 20.0N 158.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 20.4N 159.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 20.2N 160.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 20.1N 163.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 21.5N 166.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 25.5N 168.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
241600Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 158.0W.
HURRICANE 14E (LANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF BRADSHAW AAF, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 22
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242200Z, 250400Z, 251000Z AND 251600Z.//
NNNN

2018-08-24 16:31

WTPA62 PHFO 241550 RRA
TCUCP2

HURRICANE LANE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
600 AM HST FRI AUG 24 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH TOWARD THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING OCCURRING ON THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...

THE EYE OF HURRICANE LANE IS BEING TRACKED BY BOTH THE NORTH
KOHALA AND MOLOKAI WSR-88D RADARS AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FOR PEAK GUSTS:
09:00Z OAHU FOREST NWR, OAHU (OFRH1).......... 74 MPH (119 KM/H)
12:00Z KOHALA RANCH, BIG ISLAND (KHRH1)....... 68 MPH (109 KM/H)
10:00Z KAWAIHAE, BIG ISLAND (KWWH1)........... 64 MPH (103 KM/H)
12:00Z PTA WEST (PKWH1)....................... 60 MPH (97 KM/H)
14:00Z KANELOA, KOHOOLAWE (KOAH1)............. 59 MPH (94 KM/H)
10:00Z WAIKOLOA, BIG ISLAND (WKVH1)........... 57 MPH (92 KM/H)
12:00Z KAMUELA, BIG ISLAND (PHMU)............. 56 MPH (90 KM/H)
13:00Z WAIKUI, BIG ISLAND (PERH1)............. 55 MPH (89 KM/H)
08:00Z MOLOKAI AIRPORT, MOLOKAI (PHMK).........55 MPH (89 KM/H)
12:00Z PUU MALI, BIG ISLAND................... 54 MPH (87 KM/H)
10:00Z HAKIOAWA, KAHOOLAWE (PHKI)............. 53 MPH (85 KM/H)
15:00Z MAALAEA BAY, MAUI...................... 50 MPH (80 KM/H)
06:00Z KUAOKALA, OAHU (PKKR).................. 49 MPH (79 KM/H)
08:00Z KAPALUA AIRPORT, MAUI (PHJH)........... 48 MPH (77 KM/H)
05:00Z LANAI, LANAI (LNIH1)................... 47 MPH (76 KM/H)
15:00Z PALEHUA, OAHU.......................... 46 MPH (74 KM/H)
07:00Z HONOLULU AIRPORT, OAHU (PHNL)...........45 MPH (72 KM/H)
05:00Z LANAI AIRPORT, LANAI (PHNY)............ 44 MPH (71 KM/H)

2018-08-24 16:31

WTPA62 PHFO 241550
TCUCP2

Hurricane Lane Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
600 AM HST Fri Aug 24 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH TOWARD THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING OCCURRING ON THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...

The eye of Hurricane Lane is being tracked by both the North
Kohala and Molokai WSR-88D radars as the tropical cyclone moves
northward toward the main Hawaiian Islands.

Automated Surface Observations for Peak Gusts:
09:00Z Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu (OFRH1).......... 74 MPH (119 km/h)
12:00Z Kohala Ranch, Big Island (KHRH1)....... 68 MPH (109 km/h)
10:00Z Kawaihae, Big Island (KWWH1)........... 64 MPH (103 km/h)
12:00Z PTA West (PKWH1)....................... 60 MPH (97 km/h)
14:00Z Kaneloa, Kohoolawe (KOAH1)............. 59 MPH (94 km/h)
10:00Z Waikoloa, Big Island (WKVH1)........... 57 MPH (92 km/h)
12:00Z Kamuela, Big Island (PHMU)............. 56 MPH (90 km/h)
13:00Z Waikui, Big Island (PERH1)............. 55 MPH (89 km/h)
08:00Z Molokai Airport, Molokai (PHMK).........55 MPH (89 km/h)
12:00Z Puu Mali, Big Island................... 54 MPH (87 km/h)
10:00Z Hakioawa, Kahoolawe (PHKI)............. 53 MPH (85 km/h)
15:00Z Maalaea Bay, Maui...................... 50 MPH (80 km/h)
06:00Z Kuaokala, Oahu (PKKR).................. 49 MPH (79 km/h)
08:00Z Kapalua Airport, Maui (PHJH)........... 48 MPH (77 km/h)
05:00Z Lanai, Lanai (LNIH1)................... 47 MPH (76 km/h)
15:00Z Palehua, Oahu.......................... 46 MPH (74 km/h)
07:00Z Honolulu Airport, Oahu (PHNL)...........45 MPH (72 km/h)
05:00Z Lanai Airport, Lanai (PHNY)............ 44 MPH (71 km/h)
11:00Z Kahului Airport, Maui (PHOG)............44 MPH (71 km/h)
14:00Z Makapulapai, Molokai (PMKP)............ 42 MPH (68 km/h)
12:00Z Kawailoa Training, Oahu................ 39 MPH (63 km/h)

Automated Surface Observations for Sustained Wind Speeds:
09:00Z Oahu Forest NWS, Oahu (OFRH1).......... 46 MPH (74 km/h)
11:00Z Kamuela, Big Island (PHMU)............. 45 MPH (72 km/h)
12:00Z Kawaihae, Big Island (KWWH1)........... 43 MPH (69 km/h)
10:00Z Kohala Ranch, Big Island (KHRH1)....... 40 MPH (64 km/h)
08:00Z Kapalua Airport, Maui (PHJH)........... 40 MPH (64 km/h)
14:00Z PTA West, Big Island (PKWH1)........... 37 MPH (60 km/h)

SUMMARY OF 600 AM HST...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 158.0W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM WSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Jelsema

2018-08-24 16:31

WTNT82 EGRR 241602

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 24.08.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95C ANALYSED POSITION : 18.1N 158.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP952018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.08.2018 0 18.1N 158.1W 993 53
0000UTC 25.08.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.1N 158.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.08.2018 0 18.1N 158.1W 993 53
0000UTC 25.08.2018 12 18.4N 158.9W 1001 35
1200UTC 25.08.2018 24 18.8N 159.6W 1004 33
0000UTC 26.08.2018 36 19.1N 161.0W 1005 30
1200UTC 26.08.2018 48 19.1N 162.6W 1006 31
0000UTC 27.08.2018 60 19.0N 164.5W 1006 29
1200UTC 27.08.2018 72 18.7N 166.2W 1007 26
0000UTC 28.08.2018 84 18.6N 167.4W 1006 27
1200UTC 28.08.2018 96 18.6N 169.0W 1006 25
0000UTC 29.08.2018 108 19.0N 170.1W 1007 26
1200UTC 29.08.2018 120 19.5N 171.3W 1008 24
0000UTC 30.08.2018 132 20.8N 171.8W 1008 27
1200UTC 30.08.2018 144 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 241602

2018-08-24 16:31

WTNT80 EGRR 241602

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 24.08.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95C ANALYSED POSITION : 18.1N 158.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP952018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 24.08.2018 18.1N 158.1W MODERATE
00UTC 25.08.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.1N 158.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 24.08.2018 18.1N 158.1W MODERATE
00UTC 25.08.2018 18.4N 158.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 25.08.2018 18.8N 159.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.08.2018 19.1N 161.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.08.2018 19.1N 162.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.08.2018 19.0N 164.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.08.2018 18.7N 166.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.08.2018 18.6N 167.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.08.2018 18.6N 169.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.08.2018 19.0N 170.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2018 19.5N 171.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2018 20.8N 171.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 241602

2018-08-24 15:31

WTPA42 PHFO 241518 RRA
TCDCP2

HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 40...CORRECTED
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
500 AM HST FRI AUG 24 2018

HURRICANE LANE CONTINUES TO SIGNS OF SLOW WEAKENING DUE TO WIND
SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
SHIPS AND UW-CIMSS ANALYSES. THERE IS NO EYE EVIDENT IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WHICH IS LIKELY A RESULT OF THESE HOSTILE CONDITIONS. RADAR
REFLECTIVITY DATA FROM THE WSR-88D RADARS AT MOLOKAI AND KOHALA SHOW
THE CENTER IS BECOMING DISRUPTED. THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM HFO, JTWC, TAFB AND SAB WERE A UNANIMOUS T5.0/90
KNOTS, WHILE THE UW-CIMSS ADT WAS T5.4/100 KNOTS. BASED ON A BLEND
OF THESE ESTIMATES, THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 95
KNOTS.

LANE BEGAN TO TURN NORTHWARD THURSDAY EVENING, AND THE CURRENT
MOTION IS 360/4 KNOTS. LANE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED TOWARD THE NORTH
ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE, WHICH IS LOCATED TO THE
EAST OF HAWAII. THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A NORTHWARD
MOTION, OR EVEN A MOTION TOWARD JUST EAST OF DUE NORTH, AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS SOUTH OF LANE. THE LATEST TRACK HAS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THIS MORE CLOSELY
FOLLOWS THE LATEST CONSENSUS TRACK GUIDANCE. NOTE THAT ON THIS
TRACK, HURRICANE LANE CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE CENTRAL HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS, SO THERE IS NO REASON TO BELIEVE THAT ANYONE IS SAFE IN THE
WARNING AREA. ASSUMING LANE BEGINS TO WEAKEN, AND DECOUPLE BEFORE,
OR AFTER, IT HITS THE ISLANDS, THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO COME
INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES AND

2018-08-24 15:31

WTPA42 PHFO 241518
TCDCP2

Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 40...Corrected
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
500 AM HST Fri Aug 24 2018

Hurricane Lane continues to signs of slow weakening due to wind
shear of 20 to 30 knots from the southwest according to the latest
SHIPS and UW-CIMSS analyses. There is no eye evident in satellite
imagery, which is likely a result of these hostile conditions. Radar
reflectivity data from the WSR-88D radars at Molokai and Kohala show
the center is becoming disrupted. The latest satellite intensity
estimates from HFO, JTWC, TAFB and SAB were a unanimous T5.0/90
knots, while the UW-CIMSS ADT was T5.4/100 knots. Based on a blend
of these estimates, the current intensity has been lowered to 95
knots.

Lane began to turn northward Thursday evening, and the current
motion is 360/4 knots. Lane continues to be steered toward the north
along the western side of a mid-level ridge, which is located to the
east of Hawaii. The consensus guidance continues to show a northward
motion, or even a motion toward just east of due north, as the ridge
builds south of Lane. The latest track has shifted to the right of
the previous forecast through the next 36 hours. This more closely
follows the latest consensus track guidance. Note that on this
track, Hurricane Lane continues to approach the central Hawaiian
Islands, so there is no reason to believe that anyone is safe in the
warning area. Assuming Lane begins to weaken, and decouple before,
or after, it hits the islands, the cyclone is forecast to come
increasingly under the influence of the low-level easterlies and
begin tracking westward. Again, the exact time when this will occur
remains highly uncertain, and only a small delay in this decoupling
could bring Lane farther north. This would produce considerably
worse conditions over the islands. Even if Lane remains along the
forecast track, significant impacts are expected in the Hawaiian
Islands.

Our intensity forecast shows some additional weakening, but
continues to trend on the high side of most of the intensity
guidance through 72 hours due to the resilience Lane has shown
during the past few days. Note that the CIRA analysis of Ocean Heat
Content along the latest forecast track continues to show very high
values during the next 24 hours or so. This will likely help
maintain the intensity longer than might be expected with such
strong shear. By early next week, it is possible that Lane will not
survive the shear, and may become a remnant low by day 5.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. It is vital that you do not focus on the exact forecast track or
intensity of Lane, and remain prepared for adjustments to the
forecast. Although the official forecast does not explicitly
indicate Lane's center making landfall over any of the islands, this
remains a very real possibility. Even if the center of Lane remains
offshore, severe impacts could still be realized as they extend well
away from the center.

2. Lane will pass dangerously close to the central Hawaiian Islands
as a hurricane later today or tonight, and is expected to bring
damaging winds. Terrain effects can cause strong localized
acceleration of the wind through gaps and where winds blow
downslope. These acceleration areas will shift with time as Lane
passes near or over the islands. Winds will also be stronger at the
upper floors of high rise buildings.

3. The slow movement of Lane also greatly increases the threat for
prolonged heavy rainfall and extreme rainfall totals. This is
expected to lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding
and landslides over all Hawaiian Islands.

4. Life-threatening and damaging surf can be expected along exposed
shorelines with localized storm surge exacerbating the impacts of a
prolonged period of damaging surf. The prolonged period of large
surf will also likely produce severe beach erosion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 18.7N 158.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 19.4N 157.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 20.0N 158.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 20.4N 159.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 20.2N 160.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 20.1N 163.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 21.5N 166.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 25.5N 168.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Houston

2018-08-24 15:31

WTPA42 PHFO 241514 RRA
TCDCP2

HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
500 AM HST FRI AUG 24 2018

HURRICANE LANE CONTINUES TO SIGNS OF SLOW WEAKENING DUE TO WIND
SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
SHIPS AND UW-CIMSS ANALYSES. THERE IS NO EYE EVIDENT IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WHICH IS LIKELY A RESULT OF THESE HOSTILE CONDITIONS. RADAR
REFLECTIVITY DATA FROM THE WSR-88D RADARS AT MOLOKAI AND KOHALA SHOW
THE CENTER IS BECOMING DISRUPTED. THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM HFO, JTWC, TAFB AND SAB WERE A UNANIMOUS T5.0/90
KNOTS, WHILE THE UW-CIMSS ADT WAS T5.4/100 KNOTS. BASED ON A BLEND
OF THESE ESTIMATES, THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 95
KNOTS.

LANE BEGAN TO TURN NORTHWARD THURSDAY EVENING, AND THE CURRENT
MOTION IS 360/4 KNOTS. LANE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED TOWARD THE NORTH
ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE, WHICH IS LOCATED TO THE
EAST OF HAWAII. THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A NORTHWARD
MOTION, OR EVEN A MOTION TOWARD JUST EAST OF DUE NORTH, AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS SOUTH OF LANE. THE LATEST TRACK HAS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THIS MORE CLOSELY
FOLLOWS THE LATEST CONSENSUS TRACK GUIDANCE. NOTE THAT ON THIS
TRACK, HURRICANE LANE CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE CENTRAL HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS, SO THERE IS NO REASON TO BELIEVE THAT ANYONE IS SAFE IN THE
WARNING AREA. ASSUMING LANE BEGINS TO WEAKEN, AND DECOUPLE BEFORE,
OR AFTER, IT HITS THE ISLANDS, THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO COME
INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES AND
BEGIN TRACKING WESTWARD. AGAIN, THE EXACT TIME WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR

2018-08-24 15:31

WTPA42 PHFO 241514
TCDCP2

Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 40
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
500 AM HST Fri Aug 24 2018

Hurricane Lane continues to signs of slow weakening due to wind
shear of 20 to 30 knots from the southwest according to the latest
SHIPS and UW-CIMSS analyses. There is no eye evident in satellite
imagery, which is likely a result of these hostile conditions. Radar
reflectivity data from the WSR-88D radars at Molokai and Kohala show
the center is becoming disrupted. The latest satellite intensity
estimates from HFO, JTWC, TAFB and SAB were a unanimous T5.0/90
knots, while the UW-CIMSS ADT was T5.4/100 knots. Based on a blend
of these estimates, the current intensity has been lowered to 95
knots.

lane began to turn northward Thursday evening, and the current
motion is 360/4 knots. Lane continues to be steered toward the north
along the western side of a mid-level ridge, which is located to the
east of Hawaii. The consensus guidance continues to show a northward
motion, or even a motion toward just east of due north, as the ridge
builds south of Lane. The latest track has shifted to the right of
the previous forecast through the next 36 hours. This more closely
follows the latest consensus track guidance. Note that on this
track, Hurricane Lane continues to approach the central Hawaiian
Islands, so there is no reason to believe that anyone is safe in the
warning area. Assuming Lane begins to weaken, and decouple before,
or after, it hits the islands, the cyclone is forecast to come
increasingly under the influence of the low-level easterlies and
begin tracking westward. Again, the exact time when this will occur
remains highly uncertain, and only a small delay in this decoupling
could bring Lane farther north. This would produce considerably
worse conditions over the islands. Even if Lane remains along the
forecast track, significant impacts are expected in the Hawaiian
Islands.

Our intensity forecast shows some additional weakening, but
continues to trend on the high side of most of the intensity
guidance through 72 hours due to the resilience Lane has shown
during the past few days. Note that the CIRA analysis of Ocean Heat
Content along the latest forecast track continues to show very high
values during the next 24 hours or so. This will likely help
maintain the intensity longer than might be expected with such
strong shear. By early next week, it is possible that Lane will not
survive the shear, and may become a remnant low by day 5.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. It is vital that you do not focus on the exact forecast track or
intensity of Lane, and remain prepared for adjustments to the
forecast. Although the official forecast does not explicitly
indicate Lane's center making landfall over any of the islands, this
remains a very real possibility. Even if the center of Lane remains
offshore, severe impacts could still be realized as they extend well
away from the center.

2. Lane will pass dangerously close to the central Hawaiian Islands
as a hurricane later today or tonight, and is expected to bring
damaging winds. Terrain effects can cause strong localized
acceleration of the wind through gaps and where winds blow
downslope. These acceleration areas will shift with time as Lane
passes near or over the islands. Winds will also be stronger at the
upper floors of high rise buildings.

3. The slow movement of Lane also greatly increases the threat for
prolonged heavy rainfall and extreme rainfall totals. This is
expected to lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding
and landslides over all Hawaiian Islands.

4. Life-threatening and damaging surf can be expected along exposed
shorelines with localized storm surge exacerbating the impacts of a
prolonged period of damaging surf. The prolonged period of large
surf will also likely produce severe beach erosion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 18.7N 158.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 19.4N 157.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 20.0N 158.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 20.4N 159.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 20.2N 160.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 20.1N 163.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 21.5N 166.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 25.5N 168.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Houston

2018-08-24 15:31

WTPA32 PHFO 241452 RRA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
500 AM HST FRI AUG 24 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH TOWARD
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING OCCURRING ON THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 158.0W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM WSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. OAHU
. MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI, LANAI, MOLOKAI AND
KAHOOLAWE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE LANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN

2018-08-24 15:31

WTPA32 PHFO 241452
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Advisory Number 40
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
500 AM HST Fri Aug 24 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH TOWARD
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING OCCURRING ON THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 158.0W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM WSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Oahu
* Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Hawaii County

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Kauai County...including the islands of Kauai and Niihau

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should monitor
the progress of Hurricane Lane.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lane was located
near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 158.0 West. Lane is moving
toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the west is
anticipated on Saturday, with an increase in forward speed. On the
latest forecast track, the center of Lane will move dangerously
close to portions of the central Hawaiian islands later today and
tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lane is now category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional weakening is forecast later
today and tonight, but Lane is expected to remain a dangerous
hurricane as it approaches the islands. Further weakening is
expected on Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are already occurring on the Big
Island, Maui County and Oahu. These conditions will likely persist
today. Hurricane conditions are expected over some areas of Maui
County and Oahu starting tonight. Tropical storm or hurricane
conditions are possible on Kauai starting tonight or Saturday.

RAINFALL: Rain bands will continue to overspread the Hawaiian
Islands well ahead of Lane. Excessive rainfall associated with this
slow moving hurricane will continue to impact the Hawaiian Islands
into the weekend, leading to catastrophic and life-threatening flash
flooding and landslides. Lane is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 10 to 20 inches, with localized amounts up to 40
inches possible over portions of the Hawaiian Islands. Over 30
inches of rain has already fallen at a couple locations on the
windward side of the Big Island.

SURF: Very large swells generated by the slow moving hurricane will
severely impact the Hawaiian Islands into this weekend. These swells
will produce life-threatening and damaging surf along exposed
shorelines, particularly today through Saturday. In addition, a
prolonged period of extreme surf will also likely lead to
significant coastal erosion.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet
above normal tide levels along south and west facing shores near
the center of Lane. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM HST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Houston


2018-08-24 15:31

WTPA22 PHFO 241445 RRA
TCMCP2

HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1500 UTC FRI AUG 24 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. OAHU
.. MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...LANAI...
MOLOKAI AND KAHOOLAWE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE LANE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 158.0W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 55NE 45SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 140SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 158.0W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 158.0W

2018-08-24 15:31

WTPA22 PHFO 241445
TCMCP2

HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1500 UTC FRI AUG 24 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU
* MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...LANAI...
MOLOKAI AND KAHOOLAWE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE LANE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 158.0W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 55NE 45SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 140SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 158.0W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 158.0W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 19.4N 157.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 55NE 45SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 20.0N 158.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...110NE 95SE 60SW 95NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 20.4N 159.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 35SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 85SE 50SW 85NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.2N 160.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 35NW.
34 KT... 85NE 65SE 40SW 85NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 20.1N 163.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 45SE 25SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 21.5N 166.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 25.5N 168.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 158.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON



2018-08-24 14:31

WTPA62 PHFO 241410 RRA
TCUCP2

HURRICANE LANE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE...CORRECTED
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
410 AM HST FRI AUG 24 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING OCCURRING ON THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII...

THE EYE OF HURRICANE LANE IS BEING TRACKED BY BOTH THE NORTH
KOHALA AND MOLOKAI WSR-88D RADARS AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FOR PEAK GUSTS:
12:00Z KOHALA RANCH, BIG ISLAND (KHRH1)....... 68 MPH (109 KM/H)
12:00Z KAMUELA, BIG ISLAND (PHMU)............. 56 MPH (90 KM/H)
10:00Z KAWAIHAE, BIG ISLAND (KWWH1)........... 64 MPH (103 KM/H)
12:00Z PUU MALI, BIG ISLAND................... 54 MPH (87 KM/H)
10:00Z WAIKOLOA, BIG ISLAND (WKVH1)........... 52 MPH (84 KM/H)
12:00Z PTA WEST (PKWH1)....................... 60 MPH (97 KM/H)
12:00Z KANELOA, KOHOOLAWE (KOAH1)............. 52 MPH (84 KM/H)
12:00Z LANAI, LANAI (LNIH1)................... 45 MPH (72 KM/H)
12:00Z MAALAEA BAY, MAUI...................... 50 MPH (80 KM/H)
10:00Z MAKAPULAPAI, MOLOKAI................... 39 MPH (63 KM/H)
10:00Z KUAOKALA, OAHU......................... 42 MPH (68 KM/H)
12:00Z KAWAILOA TRAINING, OAHU................ 39 MPH (63 KM/H)
09:00Z OAHU FOREST NWR, OAHU (OFRH1).......... 74 MPH (119 KM/H)
10:00Z PALEHUA, OAHU.......................... 45 MPH (72 KM/H)

AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS:
12:00Z KOHALA RANCH, BIG ISLAND (KHRH1)....... 38 MPH (61 KM/H)
12:00Z KAMUELA, BIG ISLAND (PHMU)............. 33 MPH (53 KM/H)
12:00Z KAWAIHAE, BIG ISLAND (KWWH1)........... 43 MPH (69 KM/H)

2018-08-24 14:31

WTPA62 PHFO 241410 CCA
TCUCP2

Hurricane Lane Tropical Cyclone Update...CORRECTED
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
410 AM HST Fri Aug 24 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING OCCURRING ON THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII...

The eye of Hurricane Lane is being tracked by both the North
Kohala and Molokai WSR-88D radars as the tropical cyclone moves
northward toward the main Hawaiian Islands.

Automated Surface Observations for Peak Gusts:
12:00Z Kohala Ranch, Big Island (KHRH1)....... 68 MPH (109 km/h)
12:00Z Kamuela, Big Island (PHMU)............. 56 MPH (90 km/h)
10:00Z Kawaihae, Big Island (KWWH1)........... 64 MPH (103 km/h)
12:00Z Puu Mali, Big Island................... 54 MPH (87 km/h)
10:00Z Waikoloa, Big Island (WKVH1)........... 52 MPH (84 km/h)
12:00Z PTA West (PKWH1)....................... 60 MPH (97 km/h)
12:00Z Kaneloa, Kohoolawe (KOAH1)............. 52 MPH (84 km/h)
12:00Z Lanai, Lanai (LNIH1)................... 45 MPH (72 km/h)
12:00Z Maalaea Bay, Maui...................... 50 MPH (80 km/h)
10:00Z Makapulapai, Molokai................... 39 MPH (63 km/h)
10:00Z Kuaokala, Oahu......................... 42 MPH (68 km/h)
12:00Z Kawailoa Training, Oahu................ 39 MPH (63 km/h)
09:00Z Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu (OFRH1).......... 74 MPH (119 km/h)
10:00Z Palehua, Oahu.......................... 45 MPH (72 km/h)

Automated Surface Observations for Sustained Wind Speeds:
12:00Z Kohala Ranch, Big Island (KHRH1)....... 38 MPH (61 km/h)
12:00Z Kamuela, Big Island (PHMU)............. 33 MPH (53 km/h)
12:00Z Kawaihae, Big Island (KWWH1)........... 43 MPH (69 km/h)
13:00Z PTA West, Big Island (PKWH1)........... 37 MPH (60 km/h)
09:00Z Oahu Forest NWS, Oahu (OFRH1).......... 46 MPH (74 km/h)

SUMMARY OF 400 AM HST...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 158.0W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM WSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Bohlin

2018-08-24 14:31

WTPA62 PHFO 241405 RRA
TCUCP2

HURRICANE LANE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
403 AM HST FRI AUG 24 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING OCCURRING ON THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII...

THE EYE OF HURRICANE LANE IS BEING TRACKED BY BOTH THE NORTH
KOHALA AND MOLOKAI WSR-88D RADARS AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FOR PEAK GUSTS:
12:00Z KOHALA RANCH, BIG ISLAND (KHRH1)....... 68 MPH (109 KM/H)
12:00Z KAMUELA, BIG ISLAND (PHMU)............. 56 MPH (90 KM/H)
10:00Z KAWAIHAE, BIG ISLAND (KWWH1)........... 64 MPH (103 KM/H)
12:00Z PUU MALI, BIG ISLAND................... 54 MPH (87 KM/H)
10:00Z WAIKOLOA, BIG ISLAND (WKVH1)........... 52 MPH (84 KM/H)
12:00Z PTA WEST (PKWH1)....................... 60 MPH (97 KM/H)
12:00Z KANELOA, KOHOOLAWE (KOAH1)............. 52 MPH (84 KM/H)
12:00Z LANAI, LANAI (LNIH1)................... 45 MPH (72 KM/H)
12:00Z MAALAEA BAY, MAUI...................... 50 MPH (80 KM/H)
10:00Z MAKAPULAPAI, MOLOKAI................... 39 MPH (63 KM/H)
10:00Z KUAOKALA, OAHU......................... 42 MPH (68 KM/H)
12:00Z KAWAILOA TRAINING, OAHU................ 39 MPH (63 KM/H)
09:00Z OAHU FOREST NWR, OAHU (OFRH1).......... 74 MPH (119 KM/H)
10:00Z PALEHUA, OAHU.......................... 45 MPH (72 KM/H)

AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS:
12:00Z KOHALA RANCH, BIG ISLAND (KHRH1)....... 38 MPH (61 KM/H)
12:00Z KAMUELA, BIG ISLAND (PHMU)............. 33 MPH (53 KM/H)
12:00Z KAWAIHAE, BIG ISLAND (KWWH1)........... 43 MPH (69 KM/H)

2018-08-24 14:31

WTPA62 PHFO 241405
TCUCP2

Hurricane Lane Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
403 AM HST Fri Aug 24 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING OCCURRING ON THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII...

The eye of Hurricane Lane is being tracked by both the North
Kohala and Molokai WSR-88D radars as the tropical cyclone moves
northward toward the main Hawaiian Islands.

Automated Surface Observations for Peak Gusts:
12:00Z Kohala Ranch, Big Island (KHRH1)....... 68 MPH (109 km/h)
12:00Z Kamuela, Big Island (PHMU)............. 56 MPH (90 km/h)
10:00Z Kawaihae, Big Island (KWWH1)........... 64 MPH (103 km/h)
12:00Z Puu Mali, Big Island................... 54 MPH (87 km/h)
10:00Z Waikoloa, Big Island (WKVH1)........... 52 MPH (84 km/h)
12:00Z PTA West (PKWH1)....................... 60 MPH (97 km/h)
12:00Z Kaneloa, Kohoolawe (KOAH1)............. 52 MPH (84 km/h)
12:00Z Lanai, Lanai (LNIH1)................... 45 MPH (72 km/h)
12:00Z Maalaea Bay, Maui...................... 50 MPH (80 km/h)
10:00Z Makapulapai, Molokai................... 39 MPH (63 km/h)
10:00Z Kuaokala, Oahu......................... 42 MPH (68 km/h)
12:00Z Kawailoa Training, Oahu................ 39 MPH (63 km/h)
09:00Z Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu (OFRH1).......... 74 MPH (119 km/h)
10:00Z Palehua, Oahu.......................... 45 MPH (72 km/h)

Automated Surface Observations for Sustained Wind Speeds:
12:00Z Kohala Ranch, Big Island (KHRH1)....... 38 MPH (61 km/h)
12:00Z Kamuela, Big Island (PHMU)............. 33 MPH (53 km/h)
12:00Z Kawaihae, Big Island (KWWH1)........... 43 MPH (69 km/h)
13:00Z PTA West, Big Island (PKWH1)........... 37 MPH (60 km/h)
09:00Z Oahu Forest NWS, Oahu (OFRH1).......... 46 MPH (74 km/h)

SUMMARY OF 300 AM HST...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 158.0W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM WSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Bohlin

2018-08-24 13:31

WTPA62 PHFO 241304 RRA
TCUCP2

HURRICANE LANE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
303 AM HST FRI AUG 24 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING OCCURRING ON THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII...

THE EYE OF HURRICANE LANE IS BEING TRACKED BY BOTH THE NORTH
KOHALA AND MOLOKAI WSR-88D RADARS AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FOR PEAK GUSTS:
12:00Z KOHALA RANCH, BIG ISLAND (KHRH1)....... 68 MPH (109 KM/H)
12:00Z KAMUELA, BIG ISLAND (PHMU)............. 56 MPH (90 KM/H)
10:00Z KAWAIHAE, BIG ISLAND (KWWH1)........... 64 MPH (103 KM/H)
12:00Z PUU MALI, BIG ISLAND................... 54 MPH (87 KM/H)
10:00Z WAIKOLOA, BIG ISLAND (WKVH1)........... 52 MPH (84 KM/H)
12:00Z PTA WEST (PKWH1)....................... 60 MPH (97 KM/H)
12:00Z KANELOA, KOHOOLAWE (KOAH1)............. 52 MPH (84 KM/H)
12:00Z LANAI, LANAI (LNIH1)................... 45 MPH (72 KM/H)
12:00Z MAALAEA BAY, MAUI...................... 50 MPH (80 KM/H)
10:00Z MAKAPULAPAI, MOLOKAI................... 39 MPH (63 KM/H)
10:00Z KUAOKALA, OAHU......................... 42 MPH (68 KM/H)
12:00Z KAWAILOA TRAINING, OAHU................ 39 MPH (63 KM/H)
12:00Z OAHU FOREST NWR (OFRH1)................ 65 MPH (105 KM/H)
10:00Z PALEHUA, OAHU.......................... 45 MPH (72 KM/H)

AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS:
12:00Z KOHALA RANCH, BIG ISLAND (KHRH1)....... 38 MPH (61 KM/H)
12:00Z KAMUELA, BIG ISLAND (PHMU)............. 33 MPH (53 KM/H)
12:00Z KAWAIHAE, BIG ISLAND (KWWH1)........... 43 MPH (69 KM/H)

2018-08-24 13:31

WTPA62 PHFO 241304
TCUCP2

Hurricane Lane Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
303 AM HST Fri Aug 24 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING OCCURRING ON THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII...

The eye of Hurricane Lane is being tracked by both the North
Kohala and Molokai WSR-88D radars as the tropical cyclone moves
northward toward the main Hawaiian islands.

Automated Surface Observations for Peak Gusts:
12:00Z Kohala Ranch, Big Island (KHRH1)....... 68 MPH (109 km/h)
12:00Z Kamuela, Big Island (PHMU)............. 56 MPH (90 km/h)
10:00Z Kawaihae, Big Island (KWWH1)........... 64 MPH (103 km/h)
12:00Z Puu Mali, Big Island................... 54 MPH (87 km/h)
10:00Z Waikoloa, Big Island (WKVH1)........... 52 MPH (84 km/h)
12:00Z PTA West (PKWH1)....................... 60 MPH (97 km/h)
12:00Z Kaneloa, Kohoolawe (KOAH1)............. 52 MPH (84 km/h)
12:00Z Lanai, Lanai (LNIH1)................... 45 MPH (72 km/h)
12:00Z Maalaea Bay, Maui...................... 50 MPH (80 km/h)
10:00Z Makapulapai, Molokai................... 39 MPH (63 km/h)
10:00Z Kuaokala, Oahu......................... 42 MPH (68 km/h)
12:00Z Kawailoa Training, Oahu................ 39 MPH (63 km/h)
12:00Z Oahu Forest NWR (OFRH1)................ 65 MPH (105 km/h)
10:00Z Palehua, Oahu.......................... 45 MPH (72 km/h)

Automated Surface Observations for Sustained Wind Speeds:
12:00Z Kohala Ranch, Big Island (KHRH1)....... 38 MPH (61 km/h)
12:00Z Kamuela, Big Island (PHMU)............. 33 MPH (53 km/h)
12:00Z Kawaihae, Big Island (KWWH1)........... 43 MPH (69 km/h)
12:00Z Oahu Forest NWS (OFRH1)................ 39 MPH (63 km/h)

SUMMARY OF 300 AM HST...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 158.0W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Bohlin

2018-08-24 12:31

WTPA32 PHFO 241146 RRA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LANE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 39A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
200 AM HST FRI AUG 24 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING OCCURRING ON THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 158.0W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. OAHU
. MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI, LANAI, MOLOKAI AND
KAHOOLAWE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE LANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN

2018-08-24 12:31

WTPA32 PHFO 241146
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Intermediate Advisory Number 39A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
200 AM HST Fri Aug 24 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING OCCURRING ON THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 158.0W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Oahu
* Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Hawaii County

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Kauai County...including the islands of Kauai and Niihau

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should monitor
the progress of Hurricane Lane.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM HST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lane was located
near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 158.0 West. Lane is moving
toward the north near 5 mph (8 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue today. A turn toward the west is anticipated
Saturday, with an increase in forward speed. On the latest forecast
track, the center of Lane will move over, or dangerously close to
portions of the main Hawaiian islands later today and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lane remains a powerful category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast
from later today and tonight through late Saturday, but Lane is
expected to remain a dangerous hurricane as it approaches the
islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are already occurring on the Big
Island, Maui County and Oahu. These conditions will likely persist
through this morning. Hurricane conditions are expected over some
areas of Maui County and Oahu starting later today or tonight.
Tropical storm or hurricane conditions are possible on Kauai
starting tonight or Saturday.

RAINFALL: Rain bands will continue to overspread the Hawaiian
Islands well ahead of Lane. Excessive rainfall associated with this
slow moving hurricane will continue to impact the Hawaiian Islands
into the weekend, leading to catastrophic and life-threatening flash
flooding and landslides. Lane is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 10 to 20 inches, with localized amounts of 30 to 40
inches possible over portions of the Hawaiian Islands. Over two feet
of rain has already fallen at a few locations on the windward side
of the Big Islands.

SURF: Very large swells generated by the slow moving hurricane will
severely impact the Hawaiian Islands into this weekend. These swells
will produce life-threatening and damaging surf along exposed
shorelines. In addition, a prolonged period of extreme surf will
also likely lead to significant coastal erosion.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet
above normal tide levels along south and west facing shores near
the center of Lane. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Houston


2018-08-24 11:31

WTPA62 PHFO 241103 RRA
TCUCP2

HURRICANE LANE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
100 AM HST FRI AUG 24 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING OCCURRING ON THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII...

THE EYE OF HURRICANE LANE IS BEING TRACKED BY BOTH THE NORTH
KOHALA AND MOLOKAI WSR-88D RADARS AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PEAK GUSTS:
10:00Z KOHALA RANCH, BIG ISLAND (KHRH1)....... 67 MPH (107 KM/H)
10:00Z KAMUELA, BIG ISLAND (PHMU)............. 51 MPH (82 KM/H)
07:00Z KEAMUKU, BIG ISLAND (PKMH1)............ 52 MPH (84 KM/H)
10:00Z KAWAIHAE, BIG ISLAND................... 64 MPH (103 KM/H)
10:00Z WAIKALOA, BIG ISLAND................... 52 MPH (84 KM/H)
10:00Z PTA WEST (PKWH1)....................... 54 MPH (87 KM/H)
07:00Z LANAI, LANAI (LNIH1)................... 45 MPH (72 KM/H)
10:00Z MAALAEA BAY, MAUI...................... 52 MPH (84 KM/H)
07:00Z LAHAINA, MAUI (PHJH)................... 49 MPH (79 KM/H)
07:00Z MOLOKAI AIRPORT, MOLOKAI (PHMK)........ 55 MPH (89 KM/H)
10:00Z MAKAPULAPAI, MOLOKAI................... 39 MPH (63 KM/H)
10:00Z KUAOKALA, OAHU......................... 42 MPH (68 KM/H)
07:00Z KAWAILOA TRAINING, OAHU................ 51 MPH (82 KM/H)
07:00Z KAHUKU, OAHU........................... 39 MPH (63 KM/H)
10:00Z PALEHUA, OAHU.......................... 45 MPH (72 KM/H)
07:00Z WAIANAE VALLEY, OAHU................... 40 MPH (64 KM/H)
07:00Z DANIEL K INOUYE HONOLULU, OAHU (PHNL).. 45 MPH (72 KM/H)

SUMMARY OF 100 AM HST...1100 UTC...INFORMATION

2018-08-24 11:31

WTPA62 PHFO 241103
TCUCP2

Hurricane Lane Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
100 AM HST Fri Aug 24 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING OCCURRING ON THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII...

The eye of Hurricane Lane is being tracked by both the North
Kohala and Molokai WSR-88D radars as the tropical cyclone moves
northward toward the main Hawaiian islands.

Automated Surface Observations Peak Gusts:
10:00Z Kohala Ranch, Big Island (KHRH1)....... 67 MPH (107 km/h)
10:00Z Kamuela, Big Island (PHMU)............. 51 MPH (82 km/h)
07:00Z Keamuku, Big Island (PKMH1)............ 52 MPH (84 km/h)
10:00Z Kawaihae, Big Island................... 64 MPH (103 km/h)
10:00Z Waikaloa, Big Island................... 52 MPH (84 km/h)
10:00Z PTA West (PKWH1)....................... 54 MPH (87 km/h)
07:00Z Lanai, Lanai (LNIH1)................... 45 MPH (72 km/h)
10:00Z Maalaea Bay, Maui...................... 52 MPH (84 km/h)
07:00Z Lahaina, Maui (PHJH)................... 49 MPH (79 km/h)
07:00Z Molokai Airport, Molokai (PHMK)........ 55 MPH (89 km/h)
10:00Z Makapulapai, Molokai................... 39 MPH (63 km/h)
10:00Z Kuaokala, Oahu......................... 42 MPH (68 km/h)
07:00Z Kawailoa Training, Oahu................ 51 MPH (82 km/h)
07:00Z Kahuku, Oahu........................... 39 MPH (63 km/h)
10:00Z Palehua, Oahu.......................... 45 MPH (72 km/h)
07:00Z Waianae Valley, Oahu................... 40 MPH (64 km/h)
07:00Z Daniel K Inouye Honolulu, Oahu (PHNL).. 45 MPH (72 km/h)

SUMMARY OF 100 AM HST...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 158.0W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Bohlin

2018-08-24 10:31

WTPA62 PHFO 241011 RRA
TCUCP2

HURRICANE LANE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1210 AM HST FRI AUG 24 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...

THE EYE OF HURRICANE LANE IS BEING TRACKED BY BOTH THE NORTH
KOHALA AND MOLOKAI WSR-88D RADARS AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PEAK GUSTS:
07:00Z KOHALA RANCH, BIG ISLAND (KHRH1)....... 68 MPH (109 KM/H)
07:00Z KAMUELA, BIG ISLAND (PHMU)............. 48 MPH (77 KM/H)
07:00Z KEAMUKU, BIG ISLAND (PKMH1)............ 52 MPH (84 KM/H)
07:00Z KAWAIHAE, BIG ISLAND................... 41 MPH (66 KM/H)
07:00Z WAIKALOA, BIG ISLAND................... 50 MPH (80 KM/H)
07:00Z LANAI, LANAI (LNIH1)................... 45 MPH (72 KM/H)
10:00Z MAALAEA BAY, MAUI...................... 52 MPH (84 KM/H)
07:00Z LAHAINA, MAUI (PHJH)................... 49 MPH (79 KM/H)
07:00Z MOLOKAI AIRPORT, MOLOKAI (PHMK)........ 55 MPH (89 KM/H)
06:00Z MAKAPULAPAI, MOLOKAI................... 40 MPH (64 KM/H)
06:00Z KUAOKALA, OAHU......................... 49 MPH (79 KM/H)
07:00Z KAWAILOA TRAINING...................... 51 MPH (82 KM/H)
07:00Z KAHUKU, OAHU........................... 39 MPH (63 KM/H)
07:00Z WAIANAE VALLEY, OAHU................... 40 MPH (64 KM/H)
07:00Z DANIEL K INOUYE HONOLULU, OAHU (PHNL).. 45 MPH (72 KM/H)
10:00Z PTA WEST (PKWH1)........................54 MPH (87 KM/H)

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM HST...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 158.0W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII

2018-08-24 10:31

WTPA62 PHFO 241011
TCUCP2

Hurricane Lane Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1210 AM HST Fri Aug 24 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...

The eye of Hurricane Lane is being tracked by both the North
Kohala and Molokai WSR-88D radars as the tropical cyclone moves
northward toward the main Hawaiian islands.

Automated Surface Observations Peak Gusts:
07:00Z Kohala Ranch, Big Island (KHRH1)....... 68 MPH (109 km/h)
07:00Z Kamuela, Big Island (PHMU)............. 48 MPH (77 km/h)
07:00Z Keamuku, Big Island (PKMH1)............ 52 MPH (84 km/h)
07:00Z Kawaihae, Big Island................... 41 MPH (66 km/h)
07:00Z Waikaloa, Big Island................... 50 MPH (80 km/h)
07:00Z Lanai, Lanai (LNIH1)................... 45 MPH (72 km/h)
10:00Z Maalaea Bay, Maui...................... 52 MPH (84 km/h)
07:00Z Lahaina, Maui (PHJH)................... 49 MPH (79 km/h)
07:00Z Molokai Airport, Molokai (PHMK)........ 55 MPH (89 km/h)
06:00Z Makapulapai, Molokai................... 40 MPH (64 km/h)
06:00Z Kuaokala, Oahu......................... 49 MPH (79 km/h)
07:00Z Kawailoa Training...................... 51 MPH (82 km/h)
07:00Z Kahuku, Oahu........................... 39 MPH (63 km/h)
07:00Z Waianae Valley, Oahu................... 40 MPH (64 km/h)
07:00Z Daniel K Inouye Honolulu, Oahu (PHNL).. 45 MPH (72 km/h)
10:00Z PTA West (PKWH1)........................54 MPH (87 km/h)

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM HST...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 158.0W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Jelsema

2018-08-24 09:31

WTPN31 PHNC 241000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 14E (LANE) WARNING NR 039//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 14E (LANE) WARNING NR 039
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 18.0N 157.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0N 157.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 19.0N 158.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 19.9N 158.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 20.4N 158.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 20.3N 160.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 20.3N 163.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 21.0N 166.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 24.6N 168.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
241000Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 157.9W.
HURRICANE 14E (LANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 169 NM SOUTHWEST OF
BRADSHAW AAF, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 241600Z, 242200Z, 250400Z AND 251000Z.//
NNNN

2018-08-24 09:31

WTPA42 PHFO 240912 RRA
TCDCP2

HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1100 PM HST THU AUG 23 2018

HURRICANE LANE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF SLOW WEAKENING
DUE TO WIND SHEAR OF OVER 20 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACCORDING TO
THE SHIPS AND UW-CIMSS ANALYSES. THERE IS NO EYE EVIDENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY, WHICH IS LIKELY A RESULT OF THESE HOSTILE
CONDITIONS. RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA FROM THE WSR-88D RADARS AT
MOLOKAI AND KOHALA SHOW THE CENTER IS BECOMING ELONGATED IN A NORTH
TO SOUTH DIRECTION. THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
HFO, JTWC, TAFB AND SAB WERE A UNANIMOUS T5.5/102 KNOTS, WHILE THE
UW-CIMSS ADT WAS T5.7/107 KNOTS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT
105 KT BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/5 KNOTS, WHICH SHOWS A NORTHWARD
TURN HAS OCCURRED THIS EVENING. LANE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED TOWARD
THE NORTH ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE, WHICH IS
LOCATED TO THE EAST OF HAWAII. THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW A NORTHWARD MOTION, OR EVEN A MOTION TOWARD JUST EAST OF DUE
NORTH, AS THE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH AND POSSIBLY SOUTHWEST OF LANE.
THE LATEST TRACK HAS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS MORE CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE LATEST
CONSENSUS TRACK GUIDANCE. NOTE THAT ON THIS TRACK, HURRICANE LANE
CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, SO THERE IS NO
REASON TO BELIEVE THAT ANYONE IS SAFE IN THE WARNING AREA. ASSUMING
LANE BEGINS TO WEAKEN, AND DECOUPLE BEFORE, OR AFTER, IT HITS THE
ISLANDS, LANE IS FORECAST TO COME INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE

2018-08-24 09:31

WTPA42 PHFO 240912
TCDCP2

Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 39
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1100 PM HST Thu Aug 23 2018

Hurricane Lane is beginning to show some signs of slow weakening
due to wind shear of over 20 knots from the southwest according to
the SHIPS and UW-CIMSS analyses. There is no eye evident in
satellite imagery, which is likely a result of these hostile
conditions. Radar reflectivity data from the WSR-88D radars at
Molokai and Kohala show the center is becoming elongated in a north
to south direction. The latest satellite intensity estimates from
HFO, JTWC, TAFB and SAB were a unanimous T5.5/102 knots, while the
UW-CIMSS ADT was T5.7/107 knots. The current intensity is held at
105 kt based on these estimates.

The initial motion estimate is 350/5 knots, which shows a northward
turn has occurred this evening. Lane continues to be steered toward
the north along the western side of a mid-level ridge, which is
located to the east of Hawaii. The consensus guidance continues to
show a northward motion, or even a motion toward just east of due
north, as the ridge builds south and possibly southwest of Lane.
The latest track has shifted to the right of the previous forecast
through the next 48 hours. This more closely follows the latest
consensus track guidance. Note that on this track, Hurricane Lane
continues to approach the Main Hawaiian Islands, so there is no
reason to believe that anyone is safe in the warning area. Assuming
Lane begins to weaken, and decouple before, or after, it hits the
islands, Lane is forecast to come increasingly under the influence
of the low level easterlies and begin tracking westward. Again, the
exact time when this will occur remains highly uncertain, and only
a small delay in this decoupling could bring Lane farther north.
This will produce considerably worse conditions over the islands.
Even if Lane remains along the forecast track, significant impacts
are expected in the Hawaiian Islands.

Our intensity forecast shows some weakening, but continues to trend
on the high side of the intensity guidance through 72 hours owing to
how organized Lane's core has been in recent days. Note that the
CIRA analysis of Ocean Heat Content along the latest forecast track
continues to show very high values during the next 24 to 36 hours,
so this will likely help maintain the intensity longer than might
be expected with such high shear. By early next week, it is possible
that Lane will not survive the shear, and may become a remnant low
by day 5.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. It is vital that you do not focus on the exact forecast track or
intensity of Lane, and remain prepared for adjustments to the
forecast. Although the official forecast does not explicitly
indicate Lane's center making landfall over any of the islands, this
remains a very real possibility. Even if the center of Lane remains
offshore, severe impacts could still be realized as they extend well
away from the center.

2. Lane will pass dangerously close to the main Hawaiian Islands as
a hurricane on Friday, and is expected to bring damaging winds.
Terrain effects can cause strong localized acceleration of the wind
through gaps and where winds blow downslope. These acceleration
areas will shift with time as Lane passes near or over the islands.
Winds will also be stronger at the upper floors of high rise
buildings.

3. The slow movement of Lane also greatly increases the threat for
prolonged heavy rainfall and extreme rainfall totals. This is
expected to lead to major, life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides over all Hawaiian Islands.

4. Large and damaging surf can be expected along exposed
shorelines, especially along south and west facing coasts, with
localized storm surge exacerbating the impacts of a prolonged period
of damaging surf. This could lead to severe beach erosion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 18.2N 158.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 19.0N 158.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 19.9N 158.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 20.4N 158.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 20.3N 160.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 20.3N 163.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 21.0N 166.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 24.6N 168.4W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Houston

2018-08-24 09:31

WTPA32 PHFO 240841 RRA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1100 PM HST THU AUG 23 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
....EXTREME FLOODING OCCURRING ON THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 158.0W
ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM SW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. OAHU
.. MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI, LANAI, MOLOKAI AND
KAHOOLAWE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE LANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN

2018-08-24 09:31

WTPA32 PHFO 240841
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Advisory Number 39
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1100 PM HST Thu Aug 23 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
...EXTREME FLOODING OCCURRING ON THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 158.0W
ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM SW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Oahu
* Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Hawaii County

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Kauai County...including the islands of Kauai and Niihau

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should monitor
the progress of Hurricane Lane.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lane was located
near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 158.0 West. Lane is moving
toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through Friday. A turn toward the west is
anticipated Saturday, with an increase in forward speed. On the
latest forecast track, the center of Lane will move over, or
dangerously close to portions of the main Hawaiian islands late
Friday and Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lane remains a powerful category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast
from Friday through late Saturday, but Lane is expected to remain a
hurricane as it approaches the islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are already occurring on the Big
Island, Maui County and Oahu. These conditions will likely
persist through early Friday morning. Hurricane conditions are
expected over some areas of Maui County and Oahu starting Friday
and continuing through Friday night. Tropical storm or hurricane
conditions are possible on Kauai starting late Friday or Friday
night.

RAINFALL: Rain bands will continue to overspread the Hawaiian
Islands well ahead of Lane. Excessive rainfall associated with this
slow moving hurricane will continue to impact the Hawaiian Islands
into the weekend, leading to significant and life-threatening flash
flooding and landslides. Lane is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 10 to 20 inches, with localized amounts of 30 to 40
inches possible over portions of the Hawaiian Islands. Over two feet
of rain has already fallen at a few locations on the windward side
of the Big Island.

SURF: Very large swells generated by the slow moving hurricane will
severely impact the Hawaiian Islands over the next couple of days.
These swells will produce extremely large and damaging surf along
exposed west and south facing shorelines. A prolonged period of high
surf will likely lead to significant coastal erosion.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet
above normal tide levels along south and west facing shores near
the center of Lane. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM HST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Houston


2018-08-24 09:31

WTPA22 PHFO 240834 RRA
TCMCP2

HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
0900 UTC FRI AUG 24 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. OAHU
.. MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI... LANAI... MOLOKAI
AND
KAHOOLAWE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE LANE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 158.0W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 170SE 140SW 195NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 158.0W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 157.9W

2018-08-24 09:31

WTPA22 PHFO 240834
TCMCP2

HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
0900 UTC FRI AUG 24 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU
* MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI... LANAI... MOLOKAI
AND
KAHOOLAWE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE LANE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 158.0W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 170SE 140SW 195NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 158.0W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 157.9W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 19.0N 158.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 19.9N 158.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 55NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 95SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 20.4N 158.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 45NE 35SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 85SE 50SW 85NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 20.3N 160.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 45SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 20.3N 163.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 45SE 25SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 21.0N 166.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 24.6N 168.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 158.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON



2018-08-24 08:31

WTPA62 PHFO 240805 RRA
TCUCP2

HURRICANE LANE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1005 PM HST THU AUG 23 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...

THE EYE OF HURRICANE LANE IS BEING TRACKED BY BOTH THE NORTH
KOHALA AND MOLOKAI WSR-88D RADARS AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PEAK GUSTS:
07:00Z KOHALA RANCH, BIG ISLAND (KHRH1)....... 68 MPH (109 KM/H)
07:00Z KAMUELA, BIG ISLAND (PHMU)............. 48 MPH (77 KM/H)
07:00Z KEAMUKU, BIG ISLAND (PKMH1)............ 52 MPH (84 KM/H)
07:00Z KAWAIHAE, BIG ISLAND................... 41 MPH (66 KM/H)
07:00Z WAIKALOA, BIG ISLAND................... 50 MPH (80 KM/H)
07:00Z LANAI, LANAI (LNIH1)................... 45 MPH (72 KM/H)
07:00Z MAALAEA BAY, MAUI...................... 47 MPH (76 KM/H)
07:00Z LAHAINA, MAUI (PHJH)................... 49 MPH (79 KM/H)
07:00Z MOLOKAI AIRPORT, MOLOKAI (PHMK)........ 55 MPH (89 KM/H)
06:00Z MAKAPULAPAI, MOLOKAI................... 40 MPH (64 KM/H)
06:00Z KUAOKALA, OAHU......................... 49 MPH (79 KM/H)
07:00Z KAWAILOA TRAINING...................... 51 MPH (82 KM/H)
07:00Z KAHUKU, OAHU........................... 39 MPH (63 KM/H)
06:00Z WAIANAE VALLEY, OAHU................... 40 MPH (64 KM/H)
06:00Z DANIEL K INOUYE HONOLULU, OAHU (PHNL).. 44 MPH (71 KM/H)

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM HST...0800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 158.0W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII

2018-08-24 08:31

WTPA62 PHFO 240805
TCUCP2

Hurricane Lane Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1005 PM HST Thu Aug 23 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...

The eye of Hurricane Lane is being tracked by both the North
Kohala and Molokai WSR-88D radars as the tropical cyclone moves
north-northwestward toward the main Hawaiian islands.

Automated Surface Observations Peak Gusts:
07:00Z Kohala Ranch, Big Island (KHRH1)....... 68 MPH (109 km/h)
07:00Z Kamuela, Big Island (PHMU)............. 48 MPH (77 km/h)
07:00Z Keamuku, Big Island (PKMH1)............ 52 MPH (84 km/h)
07:00Z Kawaihae, Big Island................... 41 MPH (66 km/h)
07:00Z Waikaloa, Big Island................... 50 MPH (80 km/h)
07:00Z Lanai, Lanai (LNIH1)................... 45 MPH (72 km/h)
07:00Z Maalaea Bay, Maui...................... 47 MPH (76 km/h)
07:00Z Lahaina, Maui (PHJH)................... 49 MPH (79 km/h)
07:00Z Molokai Airport, Molokai (PHMK)........ 55 MPH (89 km/h)
06:00Z Makapulapai, Molokai................... 40 MPH (64 km/h)
06:00Z Kuaokala, Oahu......................... 49 MPH (79 km/h)
07:00Z Kawailoa Training...................... 51 MPH (82 km/h)
07:00Z Kahuku, Oahu........................... 39 MPH (63 km/h)
06:00Z Waianae Valley, Oahu................... 40 MPH (64 km/h)
06:00Z Daniel K Inouye Honolulu, Oahu (PHNL).. 44 MPH (71 km/h)

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM HST...0800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 158.0W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Bohlin

2018-08-24 07:31

WTPA62 PHFO 240706
TCUCP2

Hurricane Lane Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
905 PM HST Thu Aug 23 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...

The eye of Hurricane Lane is being tracked by both the North
Kohala and Molokai WSR-88D radars as the tropical cyclone moves
north-northwestward toward the main Hawaiian islands.

Automated Surface Observations Peak Gusts:
06:00Z Kohala Ranch, Big Island (KHRH1)....... 61 MPH (98 km/h)
06:00Z Kamuela, Big Island (PHMU)............. 44 MPH (71 km/h)
06:00Z Waikaloa, Big Island................... 47 MPH (76 km/h)
06:00Z Lanai, Lanai (LNIH1)................... 45 MPH (72 km/h)
05:00Z Maalaea Bay, Maui...................... 52 MPH (84 km/h)
05:00Z Lahaina, Maui (PHJH)................... 46 MPH (74 km/h)
06:00Z Molokai Airport, Molokai (PHMK)........ 40 MPH (64 km/h)
06:00Z Makapulapai, Molokai................... 40 MPH (64 km/h)
06:00Z Kaunakakai, Molokai.................... 43 MPH (69 km/h)
06:00Z Kuaokala, Oahu......................... 49 MPH (79 km/h)
06:00Z Waianae Valley, Oahu................... 40 MPH (64 km/h)
06:00Z Daniel K Inouye Honolulu, Oahu (PHNL).. 44 MPH (71 km/h)

SUMMARY OF 900 PM HST...0700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 158.0W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Bohlin

2018-08-24 06:31

WTPA32 PHFO 240555 RRA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LANE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 38A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
800 PM HST THU AUG 23 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM HST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 157.9W
ABOUT 170 MI...280 KM SW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. OAHU
.. MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI, LANAI, MOLOKAI AND
KAHOOLAWE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE LANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

2018-08-24 06:31

WTPA32 PHFO 240555
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Intermediate Advisory Number 38A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
800 PM HST Thu Aug 23 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM HST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 157.9W
ABOUT 170 MI...280 KM SW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Oahu
* Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Hawaii County

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Kauai County...including the islands of Kauai and Niihau

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should monitor
the progress of Hurricane Lane.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM HST (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lane was located by
radar and satellite imagery near latitude 18.0 North, longitude
157.9 West. Lane is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A
slow general northward motion is expected to continue through
Friday. A turn toward the west is anticipated Saturday and Sunday,
with an increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center
of Lane will move over, or dangerously close to portions of the main
Hawaiian islands later tonight and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lane is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48
hours, but Lane is expected to remain a hurricane as it approaches
the islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb (28.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are already occurring on the Big
Island and parts of Maui County. These conditions will likely
persist tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected over some areas
of Maui County on Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to
begin on Oahu later tonight, with hurricane conditions expected from
Friday into Friday night. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions are
possible on Kauai on Saturday.

RAINFALL: Rain bands will continue to overspread the Hawaiian
Islands well ahead of Lane. Excessive rainfall associated with this
slow moving hurricane will continue to impact the Hawaiian Islands
into the weekend, leading to significant and life-threatening flash
flooding and landslides. Lane is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 10 to 20 inches, with localized amounts of 30 to 40
inches possible over portions of the Hawaiian Islands. Over two feet
of rain has already fallen at a couple of locations on the windward
side of the Big Island.

SURF: Very large swells generated by the slow moving hurricane will
severely impact the Hawaiian Islands over the next couple of days.
These swells will produce extremely large and damaging surf along
exposed west and south facing shorelines. A prolonged period of high
surf will likely lead to significant coastal erosion.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet
above normal tide levels along south and west facing shores near
the center of Lane. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Houston


2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA62 PHFO 240506
TCUCP2

Hurricane Lane Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
705 PM HST Thu Aug 23 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...

The eye of Hurricane Lane is being tracked by both the North
Kohala and Molokai WSR-88D radars as the tropical cyclone moves
north-northwestward toward the main Hawaiian islands.

Automated Surface Observations Peak Gusts:
03:35Z Kohala Ranch, Big Island (KHRH1)....... 53 MPH (85 km/h)
04:00Z Kamuela, Big Island (PHMU)............. 45 MPH (72 km/h)
04:00Z PTA West, Big Island (PKWH1)........... 44 MPH (68 km/h)
04:00Z Lanai, Lanai (LNIH1)................... 42 MPH (67 km/h)
04:00Z Maalaea Bay, Maui ..................... 48 MPH (77 km/h)
04:00Z Lahaina, Maui (PHJH)................... 46 MPH (74 km/h)
04:00Z Molokai Airport, Molokai (PHMK)........ 49 MPH (79 km/h)

SUMMARY OF 700 PM HST...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 157.9W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Bohlin

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA62 PHFO 240205
TCUCP2

Hurricane Lane Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
405 PM HST Thu Aug 23 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...

The eye of Hurricane Lane is being tracked by both the North
Kohala and Molokai WSR-88D radars as the tropical cyclone moves
north-northwestward toward the main Hawaiian islands.

A National Data Buoy Center buoy, station 51002, located around 280
miles south of Honolulu, Hawaii recently measured a wind gust of 29
mph (45 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 400 PM HST...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 157.9W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.14 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Burke

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA62 PHFO 240403
TCUCP2

Hurricane Lane Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
605 PM HST Thu Aug 23 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...

The eye of Hurricane Lane is being tracked by both the North
Kohala and Molokai WSR-88D radars as the tropical cyclone moves
north-northwestward toward the main Hawaiian islands.

SUMMARY OF 600 PM HST...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 157.9W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Burke

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA62 PHFO 240110
TCUCP2

Hurricane Lane Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
210 PM HST Thu Aug 23 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...

The eye of Hurricane Lane is being tracked by the North Kohala
WSR-88D radar as the tropical cyclone moves northwestward toward
the main Hawaiian islands.

A National Data Buoy Center buoy, station 51002, located around 280
miles south of Honolulu, Hawaii recently measured a wind gust of 29
mph (45 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 157.9W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.14 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Burke

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA62 PHFO 232305
TCUCP2

Hurricane Lane Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
110 PM HST Thu Aug 23 2018

...HURRICANE LANE PASSED OVER BUOY 51002...

The eye of Hurricane Lane is being tracked by the North Kohala
WSR-88D radar as the tropical cyclone moves northwestward toward
the main Hawaiian islands.

A National Data Buoy Center buoy, station 51002, located around 280
miles south of Honolulu, Hawaii recently measured a wind gust of 35
mph (65 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 100 PM HST...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 157.8W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Burke

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA62 PHFO 232211
TCUCP2

Hurricane Lane Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1210 PM HST Thu Aug 23 2018

...HURRICANE LANE PASSED OVER BUOY 51002...

The eye of Hurricane Lane is being tracked by the North Kohala
WSR-88D radar as the tropical cyclone moves northwestward toward
the main Hawaiian islands.

A National Data Buoy Center buoy, station 51002, located around 280
miles south of Honolulu, Hawaii recently measured a wind gust of 49
mph (80 km/h). However, as the eye of lane passed over the buoy,
sustained winds were measured as low as 2 mph (4 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 1200 PM HST...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 157.8W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Burke

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA62 PHFO 232011
TCUCP2

Hurricane Lane Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1010 AM HST Thu Aug 23 2018

...HURRICANE LANE PASSING OVER BUOY 51002...

The eye of Hurricane Lane is being tracked by the North Kohala
WSR-88D radar as the tropical cyclone moves northwestward toward
the main Hawaiian islands.

A National Data Buoy Center buoy, station 51002, located around 280
miles south of Honolulu, Hawaii recently measured a wind gust of 69
mph (111 km/h). However sustained winds have recently been measured
as low as 2 mph (4 km/h) indicating that the eye is passing over
it.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM HST...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 157.7W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Burke

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA62 PHFO 231910
TCUCP2

Hurricane Lane Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
910 AM HST Thu Aug 23 2018

...HURRICANE LANE REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...

The eye of Hurricane Lane is being tracked by the North Kohala
WSR-88D radar as the tropical cyclone moves northwestward toward
the main Hawaiian islands.

A National Data Buoy Center buoy, station 51002, located around 280
miles south of Honolulu, Hawaii recently measured a wind gust of 107
mph (172 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 900 AM HST...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 157.6W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 285 MI...469 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Burke

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA62 PHFO 231909
TCUCP2

Hurricane Lane Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
910 AM HST Thu Aug 23 2018

...HURRICANE LANE REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...

The eye of Hurricane Lane is being tracked by the North Kohala
WSR-88D radar as the tropical cyclone moves northwestward toward
the main Hawaiian islands.

A National Data Buoy Center buoy, station 51002, located around 280
miles south of Honolulu, Hawaii recently measured a wind gust of 107
mph (172 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 900 AM HST...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 157.6W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 285 MI...469 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Burke

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA62 PHFO 231716
TCUCP2

Hurricane Lane Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
715 AM HST Thu Aug 23 2018

...HURRICANE LANE REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...

The eye of Hurricane Lane is being tracked by the North Kohala
WSR-88D radar as the tropical cyclone moves northwestward toward
the main Hawaiian islands.

A National Data Buoy Center buoy, station 51002, located around 280
miles south of Honolulu, Hawaii recently measured a wind gust of 83
mph (133 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 700 AM HST...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 157.4W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Burke

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA62 PHFO 231612
TCUCP2

Hurricane Lane Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
600 AM HST Thu Aug 23 2018

...HURRICANE LANE REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
AS IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD...

The eye of Hurricane Lane is being tracked by the South Hawaii and
North Hawaii WSR-88D radars as the tropical cyclone moves
northwestward toward the Hawaiian islands.

A National Data Buoy Center buoy, station 51002, located around 245
miles south-southwest of Hilo, Hawaii recently measured a wind gust
of 76 mph (122 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 600 AM HST...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 157.4W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Jelsema

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA62 PHFO 231408
TCUCP2

Hurricane Lane Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
400 AM HST Thu Aug 23 2018

...HURRICANE LANE REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
AS IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD...

The eye of Hurricane Lane is being tracked by the South Hawaii and
North Hawaii WSR-88D radars as the tropical cyclone moves
northwestward toward the Hawaiian islands.

A National Data Buoy Center buoy, station 51002, located around 245
miles south-southwest of Hilo, Hawaii recently measured a wind gust
of 64 mph (104 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 400 AM HST...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 157.3W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.02 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Jelsema

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA62 PHFO 231313
TCUCP2

Hurricane Lane Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
300 AM HST Thu Aug 23 2018

...HURRICANE LANE REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
AS IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD...

The eye of Hurricane Lane is being tracked by the South Hawaii and
North Hawaii WSR-88D radars as the tropical cyclone moves
northwestward toward the Hawaiian islands.

A National Data Buoy Center buoy, station 51002, located around 245
miles south-southwest of Hilo, Hawaii recently measured a wind gust
of 56 mph (90 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 300 AM HST...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 157.2W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.02 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Jelsema

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA62 PHFO 231103
TCUCP2

Hurricane Lane Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
100 AM HST Thu Aug 23 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWEST...

The eye of Hurricane Lane is being tracked by the South Hawaii WSR-
88D radar as the tropical cyclone moves northwestward toward the
Hawaiian islands.

A National Data Buoy Center buoy, station 51002, located around 245
miles south-southwest of Hilo, Hawaii recently measured a wind gust
of 47 mph (76 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 100 AM HST...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 157.1W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Gibbs

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA62 PHFO 231012
TCUCP2

Hurricane Lane Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1200 AM HST Thu Aug 23 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWEST...

The eye of Hurricane Lane is being tracked by the South Hawaii WSR-
88D radar as the tropical cyclone moves northwestward toward the
Hawaiian islands.

A National Data Buoy Center buoy, station 51002, located around 245
miles south-southwest of Hilo, Hawaii recently measured a wind gust
of 47 mph (76 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 12 AM HST...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 157.0W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Jelsema

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA62 PHFO 230804
TCUCP2

Hurricane Lane Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1000 PM HST Wed Aug 22 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWEST...

The eye of Hurricane Lane is being tracked by the South Hawaii WSR-
88D radar as the tropical cyclone moves northwestward toward the
Hawaiian islands.

A National Data Buoy Center buoy, station 51002, located around 245
miles south-southwest of Hilo, Hawaii recently measured a wind gust
of 43 mph (69 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 10 PM HST...0800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 156.8W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM S OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Gibbs

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA62 PHFO 230708
TCUCP2

Hurricane Lane Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
900 PM HST Wed Aug 22 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWEST...

The eye of Hurricane Lane is being tracked by the South Hawaii WSR-
88D radar as the tropical cyclone moves northwestward toward the
Hawaiian islands.

SUMMARY OF 9 PM HST...0700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 156.7W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM S OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA62 PHFO 220423
TCUCP2

Hurricane Lane Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
620 PM HST Tue Aug 21 2018

...NOAA AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT LANE HAS STRENGTHENED TO A CATEGORY 5
HURRICANE...

Data from the NOAA P-3 aircraft indicate that Lane has continued to
intensify this afternoon. Maximum sustained winds have increased to
near 160 mph (260 km/h), making Lane an extremely dangerous category
5 hurricane. A special advisory will be issued within the hour.


SUMMARY OF 620 PM HST...0420 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 154.0W
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM SSE OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...922 MB...27.23 INCHES


$$
Forecaster Birchard/Jacobson

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA42 PHFO 240311 RRA
TCDCP2

HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
500 PM HST THU AUG 23 2018

THE WEAKENING TREND IS UNDERWAY. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, THE
CDO OF LANE HAS BECOME ELLIPTICAL AS STRONG SHEAR, 25 TO 35 KT IN
THE UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS, BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE. OUTFLOW HAS BECOME VERY RESTRICTED IN THE SOUTHWEST THE
EYE, WHILE STILL CLEARLY EVIDENT ON RADAR, IS BECOMING INDISTINCT IN
THE VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM HFO, JTWC, TAFB AND SAB WERE A UNANIMOUS 5.5, AND THE
CIMSS FT NUMBER WAS 5.6 WITH THE CI BEING HELD UP BY CONSTRAINTS.
BASED THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 105 KT ON THESE ESTIMATES.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/5. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY WITH THIS PACKAGE. LANE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED
TOWARD THE NORTH ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS
LOCATED TO THE EAST OF HAWAII. THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW A NORTHWARD MOTION, OR EVEN A MOTION TOWARD JUST EAST OF DUE
NORTH, AS THE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH AND POSSIBLY SOUTHWEST OF THE
CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK, AND
REMAINS A BIT LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS TRACKS. AS THE INNER CORE
CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE, LANE WILL COME INCREASINGLY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES AND BEGIN TRACKING WESTWARD.
HOWEVER, THE EXACT TIME WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR IS STILL RATHER
UNCERTAIN, AND ONLY A SMALL DELAY IN THIS DECOUPLING COULD BRING
LANE FARTHER NORTH, WITH CONSIDERABLY WORSE CONDITIONS OVER THE
ISLANDS. EVEN IF LANE REMAINS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK, SOME

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA42 PHFO 240311
TCDCP2

Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 38
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
500 PM HST Thu Aug 23 2018

The weakening trend is underway. Over the past several hours, the
CDO of Lane has become elliptical as strong shear, 25 to 35 kt in
the UW-CIMSS shear analysis, begins to impinge on the core of the
hurricane. Outflow has become very restricted in the southwest The
eye, while still clearly evident on radar, is becoming indistinct in
the visible and infrared satellite imagery. The satellite intensity
estimates from HFO, JTWC, TAFB and SAB were a unanimous 5.5, and the
CIMSS FT number was 5.6 with the CI being held up by constraints.
Based the current intensity of 105 kt on these estimates.

The initial motion estimate is 330/5. There is no change to the
forecast philosophy with this package. Lane continues to be steered
toward the north on the western side of a mid-level ridge which is
located to the east of Hawaii. The consensus guidance continues to
show a northward motion, or even a motion toward just east of due
north, as the ridge builds south and possibly southwest of the
cyclone. The official forecast is similar to the previous track, and
remains a bit left of the consensus tracks. As the inner core
continues to deteriorate, Lane will come increasingly under the
influence of the low level easterlies and begin tracking westward.
However, the exact time when this will occur is still rather
uncertain, and only a small delay in this decoupling could bring
Lane farther north, with considerably worse conditions over the
islands. Even if Lane remains along the forecast track, some
significant impacts are expected.

Our intensity forecast shows weakening, but continues to trend on
the high side of the intensity guidance through 72 hours owing to
how organized Lane's core has been in recent days. During the later
periods of the forecast, it is possible that Lane will not survive
the shear and may become a remnant low even sooner than forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. It is vital that you do not focus on the exact forecast track or
intensity of Lane, and remain prepared for adjustments to the
forecast. Although the official forecast does not explicitly
indicate Lane's center making landfall over any of the islands, this
remains a very real possibility. Even if the center of Lane remains
offshore, severe impacts could still be realized as they extend well
away from the center.

2. Lane will pass dangerously close to the main Hawaiian Islands as
a hurricane on Friday, and is expected to bring damaging winds.
Terrain effects can cause strong localized acceleration of the wind
through gaps and where winds blow downslope. These acceleration
areas will shift with time as Lane passes near or over the islands.
Winds will also be stronger at the upper floors of high rise
buildings.

3. The slow movement of Lane also greatly increases the threat for
prolonged heavy rainfall and extreme rainfall totals. This is
expected to lead to major, life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides over all Hawaiian Islands.

4. Large and damaging surf can be expected along exposed
shorelines, especially along south and west facing coasts, with
localized storm surge exacerbating the impacts of a prolonged period
of damaging surf. This could lead to severe beach erosion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 17.8N 157.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 18.7N 157.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 19.6N 158.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 20.1N 158.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 20.3N 159.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 20.2N 162.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 20.8N 165.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 23.2N 167.3W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster R Ballard

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA42 PHFO 232109 RRA
TCDCP2

HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1100 AM HST THU AUG 23 2018

LANE IS MAINTAINING A HEALTHY INNER CORE STRUCTURE THIS MORNING,
EVEN IN THE FACE OF 20 TO 30 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AS ANALYZED
BY UW-CIMSS. A CLOUD-FILLED EYE IS STILL EVIDENT IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY, AND RADAR IS INTERMITTENTLY SHOWING THE EYEWALL AT A
RELATIVELY LONG RANGE. THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM FOUR
CENTERS ALL CAME IN WITH 6.0-6.5. FROM CIMSS, ADT HAD 127 KT AND
SATCON HAD 127 KT. MAINTAINED THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 115 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY, ALTHOUGH THAT COULD BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE.

THIS REMAINS A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AND CHALLENGING FORECAST DUE
TO CHANGES IN THE STEERING FLOW AND INTENSITY OF LANE WITH TIME.
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST, TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE
EAST OF HAWAII. THE RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD CLOCKWISE
AROUND THE CYCLONE, IMPARTING A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION TODAY THAT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THIS WILL BRING
THE HURRICANE PERILOUSLY CLOSE TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AS
LANE APPROACHES, STRONG SHEAR AND POSSIBLY SOME TERRAIN INTERACTION
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DESTROYING THE CORE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. AT
THIS POINT, LANE WILL WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY AND TAKE A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION DECOUPLES. WHEN EXACTLY THIS WILL
OCCUR IS THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION. THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE AND THE
12Z ECMWF RUN SHIFTED A BIT CLOSER TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, AND
THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO BETTER AGREE WITH THE

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA42 PHFO 232109
TCDCP2

Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 37
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1100 AM HST Thu Aug 23 2018

Lane is maintaining a healthy inner core structure this morning,
even in the face of 20 to 30 kt of southwesterly shear as analyzed
by UW-CIMSS. A cloud-filled eye is still evident in satellite
imagery, and radar is intermittently showing the eyewall at a
relatively long range. The satellite intensity estimates from four
centers all came in with 6.0-6.5. From CIMSS, ADT had 127 kt and
SATCON had 127 kt. Maintained the current intensity of 115 kt for
this advisory, although that could be a bit conservative.

This remains a rather low confidence and challenging forecast due
to changes in the steering flow and intensity of Lane with time.
The tropical cyclone is moving slowly toward the northwest, to the
southwest of a mid-level ridge located several hundred miles to the
east of Hawaii. The ridge is still expected to build clockwise
around the cyclone, imparting a more northward motion today that is
expected to continue for the next 24 hours or so. This will bring
the hurricane perilously close to the main Hawaiian Islands. As
Lane approaches, strong shear and possibly some terrain interaction
is expected to begin destroying the core of the tropical cyclone. At
this point, Lane will weaken more rapidly and take a turn toward the
west as the low level circulation decouples. When exactly this will
occur is the million dollar question. The consensus guidance and the
12z ECMWF run shifted a bit closer to the main Hawaiian Islands, and
the forecast track has been adjusted to better agree with the
consensus. I have adjusted the intensity forecast upward a bit to be
in better agreement with the ECMWF.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. It is vital that you do not focus on the exact forecast track or
intensity of Lane, and be prepared for adjustments to the forecast.
Although the official forecast does not explicitly indicate Lane's
center making landfall over any of the islands, this remains a very
real possibility. Even if the center of Lane remains offshore,
severe impacts could still be realized as they extend well away from
the center.

2. Lane will pass dangerously close to the main Hawaiian Islands as
a hurricane on Friday, and is expected to bring damaging winds.
These winds can be accelerated over and downslope from elevated
terrain, and will be higher in high rise buildings.

3. The slow movement of Lane also greatly increases the threat for
prolonged heavy rainfall and extreme rainfall totals. This is
expected to lead to major, life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides over all Hawaiian Islands.

4. Large and damaging surf can be expected along exposed
shorelines, especially along south and west facing coasts, with
localized storm surge exacerbating the impacts of a prolonged period
of damaging surf.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 17.3N 157.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 18.2N 157.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 19.4N 157.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 20.1N 158.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 20.4N 158.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 20.3N 161.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 20.4N 164.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 22.3N 166.4W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster R Ballard

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA42 PHFO 231502 RRA
TCDCP2

HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
500 AM HST THU AUG 23 2018


LANE'S SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS DEGRADED SOMEWHAT SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IMPACTS THE VERTICAL INTEGRITY OF
THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER, THE EYE IS STILL EVIDENT IN TRADITIONAL
INFRARED IMAGERY AND REMAINS SURROUNDED BY A SOLID RING OF COLD
CLOUD TOPS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LANE'S CIRCULATION
BECOMING ELONGATED, WITH OUTFLOW SEVERELY RESTRICTED IN THE
SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE. THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM GTW/TAFB/HFO/SAB RANGED FROM 6.0/115 KT TO 6.5/127 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY, WHILE DATA-T NUMBERS WERE AS LOW AS 5.5/105 KT.
USING A BLEND, THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SET AT 115
KT.

LANE IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST INTO AN INCREASINGLY
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE EAST, AND A
TROUGH ALOFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY
IS 320/6 KT, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND
25 KT BY UW-CIMSS.

THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST ARE EXTREMELY DEPENDENT ON ONE
ANOTHER IN THE CURRENT FORECAST SCENARIO, WITH LANE EXPECTED TO
MOVE GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTH WHILE IT REMAINS A HURRICANE, AND
GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST ONCE IT WEAKENS. CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST IS REDUCED BECAUSE IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW LANE'S CORE WILL BE
IMPACTED BY ITS POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH ISLAND TERRAIN, AND THE
SUBSEQUENT RATE OF WEAKENING. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER LANE'S CENTER
MOVES OVER ONE OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL LEAD TO

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA42 PHFO 231502
TCDCP2

Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 36
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
500 AM HST Thu Aug 23 2018


Lane's satellite appearance has degraded somewhat since the previous
advisory as southwesterly shear impacts the vertical integrity of
the cyclone. However, the eye is still evident in traditional
infrared imagery and remains surrounded by a solid ring of cold
cloud tops. Water vapor imagery shows Lane's circulation
becoming elongated, with outflow severely restricted in the
southwest semicircle. The subjective Dvorak current intensity
estimates from GTW/TAFB/HFO/SAB ranged from 6.0/115 kt to 6.5/127 kt
for this advisory, while data-T numbers were as low as 5.5/105 kt.
Using a blend, the initial intensity for this advisory is set at 115
kt.

Lane is currently moving toward the northwest into an increasingly
hostile environment between a deep-layer ridge to the east, and a
trough aloft to the northwest. The initial motion for this advisory
is 320/6 kt, with southwesterly shear estimated to be around
25 kt by UW-CIMSS.

The track and intensity forecast are extremely dependent on one
another in the current forecast scenario, with Lane expected to
move generally toward the north while it remains a hurricane, and
generally toward the west once it weakens. Confidence in the
forecast is reduced because it is uncertain how Lane's core will be
impacted by its potential interaction with island terrain, and the
subsequent rate of weakening. Regardless of whether Lane's center
moves over one of the Hawaiian Islands, an increasing amount of
southwesterly shear along the forecast track will lead to
significant weakening. If Lane's core were to move over one of the
islands as has been consistently depicted by GFS/HWRF, then the
cyclone would weaken even more rapidly. EMX2 is on the left side of
the guidance and indicates less interaction with island terrain,
and therefore a slightly slower rate of weakening.

Based on a preponderance of evidence presented by the guidance, the
updated forecast indicates a faster rate of weakening than
indicated earlier, especially on days 2 and 3. The expectation is
that Lane will weaken due to the combined and cumulative effects of
debilitating shear and the interruption of the circulation due to
proximity to the high mountains of Maui and the Big Island. The
official intensity forecast now closely follows IVCN, SHIPS and the
ECMWF-based SHIPS. The track forecast anticipates this weakening,
with Lane turning sharply toward the west on day 3. Until then, the
forecast track is shifted slightly to the right of the previous
forecast through Friday, bringing Lane northward and very close to
the Big Island and Maui County. This is similar to the multi-model
consensus HCCA, which includes GFS and HWRF as weighted members. A
slow forward speed is expected as this occurs, with Lane then moving
more quickly toward west as it becomes shallow and carried by the
low-level trade wind flow.

NOAA Buoy 51002 to the southwest of the islands is in the path of
Lane, and recently reported a wind gust to 56 kt and significant
wave heights near 23 ft. Associated data were used to refine wind
and seas radii in the northwest quadrant.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lane will pass dangerously close to the main Hawaiian Islands as
a hurricane today and Friday, and is expected to bring damaging
winds. These winds can be accelerated over and downslope from
elevated terrain, and will be higher in high rise buildings.

2. The slow movement of Lane also greatly increases the threat for
prolonged heavy rainfall and extreme rainfall totals. This is
expected to lead to life-threatening flash flooding and landslides
over all Hawaiian Islands.

3. Large and damaging surf can be expected along exposed
shorelines, especially along south and west facing coasts, with
localized storm surge exacerbating the impacts of a prolonged period
of damaging surf.

4. Do not focus on the exact forecast track or intensity of Lane,
and be prepared for adjustments to the forecast. Although the
official forecast does not explicitly indicate Lane's center making
landfall over any of the islands, this could still occur. Even if
the center of Lane remains offshore, severe impacts could still be
realized as they extend well away from the center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 16.9N 157.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 17.9N 157.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 19.1N 157.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 20.0N 157.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 20.3N 158.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 20.0N 161.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 20.0N 164.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 21.5N 166.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Birchard

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA42 PHFO 230857 RRA
TCDCP2

HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1100 PM HST WED AUG 22 2018

LANE REMAINS RESILIENT IN THE FACE OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND SHEAR, AND REMAINS A POTENT CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE THIS EVENING.
THE CLOUD-FILLED EYE CONTINUES TO BE SURROUNDED BY A SOLID RING OF
COLD CLOUD TOPS, WITH LIGHTNING BURSTS PERSISTING IN THE NORTHERN
EYE WALL FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM GTW/TAFB/HFO/SAB WERE ALL 6.5/127 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY, WHILE ADT WAS SLIGHTLY LOWER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY WILL REMAIN 125 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF
THESE DATA.

LANE CONTINUES TO MAKE THE LONG-AWAITED TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST,
AND THE FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED, WITH THE INITIAL MOTION FOR
THIS ADVISORY ESTIMATED TO BE 315/6 KT. LANE HAS REACHED THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE, WITH A TROUGH ALOFT TO THE
NORTHWEST OF HAWAII. THE STEERING FLOW IS RELATIVELY LIGHT AND OUT
OF THE SOUTH, AND LANE WILL MOVE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AT A
RELATIVELY SLOW SPEED THROUGH FRIDAY IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. BY 48 TO
72 HOURS, MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SHOW A SHARP TURN
TOWARD THE WEST, AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF LANE DECOUPLES IN
THE FACE OF 35 TO 40 KT OF SHEAR. EXACTLY WHEN THIS CRITICAL TURN
WILL HAPPEN IS VERY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST, SO CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PORTION OF THE TRACK IS QUITE LOW. THE UPDATED TRACK FORECAST IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS BUT HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO
THE ISLANDS ON DAYS 2 AND 3, WHEN LANE WILL BE MAKING ITS CLOSEST
POINT OF APPROACH TO THE ISLANDS. IN DEFERENCE TO THE HCCA,

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA42 PHFO 230857
TCDCP2

Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 35
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1100 PM HST Wed Aug 22 2018

Lane remains resilient in the face of increasing southwesterly
wind shear, and remains a potent category 4 hurricane this evening.
The cloud-filled eye continues to be surrounded by a solid ring of
cold cloud tops, with lightning bursts persisting in the northern
eye wall for the last several hours. The subjective Dvorak current
intensity estimates from GTW/TAFB/HFO/SAB were all 6.5/127 kt for
this advisory, while ADT was slightly lower. The current intensity
estimate for this advisory will remain 125 kt based on a blend of
these data.

Lane continues to make the long-awaited turn toward the northwest,
and the forward speed has slowed, with the initial motion for
this advisory estimated to be 315/6 kt. Lane has reached the
western periphery of a deep-layer ridge, with a trough aloft to the
northwest of Hawaii. The steering flow is relatively light and out
of the south, and Lane will move northwest and north at a
relatively slow speed through Friday in this environment. By 48 to
72 hours, most of the track guidance begins to show a sharp turn
toward the west, as the low level circulation of Lane decouples in
the face of 35 to 40 kt of shear. Exactly when this critical turn
will happen is very difficult to forecast, so confidence in this
portion of the track is quite low. The updated track forecast is
very close to the previous but has been shifted slightly closer to
the islands on days 2 and 3, when Lane will be making its closest
point of approach to the islands. In deference to the HCCA,
the forecast track has shifted to the right in response to the
HWFI/GFSI and other members doing so, while the EMXI lies on the
left hand side of the guidance envelope. Beyond 72 hours, the
shallow circulation of Lane is expected to be carried westward away
from the islands in the low-level trade wind flow.

Lane is beginning to move underneath increasing shear, analyzed to
be near 20 kt, and latest satellite pictures indicate that this may
be finally beginning to negatively impact Lane. The shear is
expected to remain moderate for the first 24 to 36 hours, then
become quite strong beyond 48 hours. A gradual weakening trend is
shown through 48 hours, with more rapid weakening beyond that time
frame. The intensity forecast remains on the high end of the
guidance envelope, but follows closely all of the guidance trends
that indicate significant weakening through the forecast period.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lane will pass dangerously close to the main Hawaiian Islands as
a hurricane Thursday and Friday, and is expected to bring damaging
winds. These winds can be accelerated over and downslope from
elevated terrain, and will be higher in high rise buildings.

2. The slow movement of Lane also greatly increases the threat for
prolonged heavy rainfall and extreme rainfall totals. This is
expected to lead to life-threatening flash flooding and landslides
over all Hawaiian Islands.

3. Large and damaging surf can be expected along exposed
shorelines, especially along south and west facing coasts, with
localized storm surge exacerbating the impacts of a prolonged period
of damaging surf.

4. Do not focus on the exact forecast track or intensity of Lane,
and be prepared for adjustments to the forecast. Although the
official forecast does not explicitly indicate Lane's center making
landfall over any of the islands, this could still occur. Even if
the center of Lane remains offshore, severe impacts could still be
realized as they extend well away from the center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 16.3N 156.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 17.2N 157.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 18.4N 157.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 19.5N 157.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 20.2N 158.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 20.4N 160.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 20.0N 163.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 28/0600Z 20.5N 166.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Birchard

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA42 PHFO 230315 RRA
TCDCP2

HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
500 PM HST WED AUG 22 2018

THE EYE OF LANE HAS BECOME A BIT LESS DISTINCT IN VISIBLE AND
INFRARED IMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, BUT THE CORE STRUCTURE
REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 6.0 FROM
SAB AND TAFB, AND 6.5 FROM PHFO AND JTWC. THE CIMSS-ADT REMAINED
STEADY AT 6.3. THE CURRENT INTENSITY WAS SET TO 125 KT, BASED ON
THE CONSENSUS OF THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES.

UNFORTUNATELY LANE APPEARS TO HAVE STARTED A MORE NORTHWEST MOTION,
310/7 OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OF LANE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTH OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, WHICH WILL IMPART A MORE
NORTHWARD MOTION. BY 48 TO 72 HOURS, THE TRACK GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
SHOW A SHARP WESTWARD TURN, AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF LANE
DECOUPLES IN THE FACE OF 35 TO 40 KT OF SHEAR. EXACTLY WHEN THIS
CRITICAL TURN WILL HAPPEN IS VERY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST, SO
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK IS QUITE LOW AND
NECESSITATES EXPANDING THE HURRICANE WARNING TO OAHU WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. THE TRACK FORECAST IS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN THIS TIME FRAME, AND NOW CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
HCCA AND OTHER CONSENSUS GUIDANCE, WHICH SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO
THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE TIME OF CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE ISLANDS.
BEYOND 72 HOURS, THE SHALLOW CIRCULATION OF LANE IS EXPECTED TO BE
CARRIED WESTWARD IN THE TRADES.

LANE IS BEGINNING TO MOVE UNDERNEATH INCREASING SHEAR AS SHOWN IN
AN ANIMATION OF UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSES. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA42 PHFO 230315
TCDCP2

Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 34
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
500 PM HST Wed Aug 22 2018

The eye of Lane has become a bit less distinct in visible and
infrared imagery over the past few hours, but the core structure
remains well organized. Satellite intensity estimates were 6.0 from
SAB and TAFB, and 6.5 from PHFO and JTWC. The CIMSS-ADT remained
steady at 6.3. The current intensity was set to 125 kt, based on
the consensus of the satellite estimates.

Unfortunately Lane appears to have started a more northwest motion,
310/7 over the past several hours. A deep layer ridge to the east
and southeast of Lane is expected to build south of the tropical
cyclone over the next 24 to 36 hours, which will impart a more
northward motion. By 48 to 72 hours, the track guidance begins to
show a sharp westward turn, as the low level circulation of Lane
decouples in the face of 35 to 40 kt of shear. Exactly when this
critical turn will happen is very difficult to forecast, so
confidence in this portion of the track is quite low and
necessitates expanding the Hurricane Warning to Oahu with this
forecast package. The track forecast is virtually unchanged from the
previous advisory in this time frame, and now closely follows the
HCCA and other consensus guidance, which shifted slightly to
the northeast around the time of closest approach to the islands.
Beyond 72 hours, the shallow circulation of Lane is expected to be
carried westward in the trades.

Lane is beginning to move underneath increasing shear as shown in
an animation of UW-CIMSS shear analyses. The shear is expected to
remain moderate for the first 24 to 36 hours, then become quite
strong beyond 48 hours. A gradual weakening trend is shown through
48 hours, with more rapid weakening beyond that time frame. The
intensity forecast remains on the high end of the guidance, in best
agreement with the ECMWF which maintains the deeper circulation
of Lane the longest.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lane will pass dangerously close to the main Hawaiian
Islands as a hurricane Thursday and Friday, and is expected to bring
damaging winds. These winds can be accelerated over and downslope
from higher terrain, and higher in high rise buildings.

2. The slow movement of Lane also greatly increases the threat for
prolonged heavy rainfall, life-threatening flash flooding, and
landslides. The flood threat in particular will extend far to the
east and northeast of the center of Lane.

3. Large and damaging surf can be expected along exposed shorelines,
along with localized storm surge.

4. Do not focus on the exact forecast track or intensity of Lane,
and be prepared for adjustments to the forecast. Life threatening
impacts can extend well away from the center of a hurricane.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 15.9N 156.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 16.8N 157.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 18.1N 157.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 19.2N 157.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 20.0N 158.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 20.7N 159.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 20.3N 162.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 20.5N 165.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster R Ballard

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA42 PHFO 222100 RRA
TCDCP2

HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1100 AM HST WED AUG 22 2018

LANE CONTINUES TO BE A VERY IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE. AS OF THE
1800 UTC ANALYSIS TIME, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAD IMPROVED OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS WITH CLEARING AND WARMING IN THE EYE, AND CONVECTION
BECOMING MORE SYMMETRIC AROUND THE EYEWALL. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PHFO, JTWC, AND SAB WERE UNANIMOUS AT 6.5, AND
CIMSS-ADT HAD 6.3. A 1613Z SSMIS PASS SHOWED THE INNER CORE REMAINS
VERY WELL DEFINED, AND THERE HAS BEEN A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
LIGHTNING IN THE EYEWALL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. IN DEFERENCE
TO THE RECENT TRENDS, WE ELECTED TO MAINTAIN LANE AT 135 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. SINCE THE ANALYSIS TIME, THE EYE HAS COOLED AGAIN SOMEWHAT
AND DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
ASYMMETRIC.

THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SLOWED A BIT AND IS NOW 295/7. LANE
CONTINUES TO BE STEERED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY A DEEP LAYER
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. BY 36 HOURS, THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED BEGIN BUILDING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF LANE,
WHICH WILL BEGIN TO IMPART A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION THROUGH AT LEAST
48 HOURS. BY 72 HOURS, THE TRACK GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SHOW A LEFTWARD
TURN, AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF LANE DECOUPLES IN THE FACE OF
35 TO 40 KT OF SHEAR. EXACTLY WHEN THIS CRITICAL TURN WILL HAPPEN
IS VERY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST, SO CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
TRACK IS UNFORTUNATELY RATHER LOW. HOWEVER, OUR MOST RELIABLE
GLOBAL MODELS, THE ECMWF AND GFS, SUGGEST THIS MAY HAPPEN A LITTLE
LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THUS, THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA42 PHFO 222100
TCDCP2

Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 33
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1100 AM HST Wed Aug 22 2018

Lane continues to be a very impressive hurricane. As of the
1800 UTC analysis time, the cloud pattern had improved over the last
several hours with clearing and warming in the eye, and convection
becoming more symmetric around the eyewall. Satellite intensity
estimates from PHFO, JTWC, and SAB were unanimous at 6.5, and
CIMSS-ADT had 6.3. A 1613z SSMIS pass showed the inner core remains
very well defined, and there has been a considerable amount of
lightning in the eyewall over the past several hours. In deference
to the recent trends, we elected to maintain Lane at 135 kt for this
advisory. Since the analysis time, the eye has cooled again somewhat
and deep convection around the center has become a little more
asymmetric.

The initial motion has slowed a bit and is now 295/7. Lane
continues to be steered toward the west-northwest by a deep layer
ridge to the northeast of the tropical cyclone. By 36 hours, the
ridge is expected begin building to the southeast and south of Lane,
which will begin to impart a more northward motion through at least
48 hours. By 72 hours, the track guidance begins to show a leftward
turn, as the low level circulation of Lane decouples in the face of
35 to 40 kt of shear. Exactly when this critical turn will happen
is very difficult to forecast, so confidence in this portion of the
track is unfortunately rather low. However, our most reliable
global models, the ECMWF and GFS, suggest this may happen a little
later than previously forecast. Thus, the track forecast has been
shifted to the northeast between 48 and 72 hours to be in better
agreement with the global models.

The UW-CIMSS shear analysis shows that Lane is located within an
area of moderate southwesterly shear. The tropical cyclone is
expected to begin moving under increasing shear in the coming days
which is expected to start a long-awaited weakenening trend. Around
72 hours or so, the shear is expected to weaken the core of the
tropical cyclone enough to initiate more rapid weakening that is
shown for the remainder of the forecast period. Our intensity
forecast is at the high end of the guidance, in best agreement with
the ECMWF.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lane is forecast to move dangerously close to the main Hawaiian
Islands as a hurricane tomorrow through Saturday, potentially
bringing damaging winds. As Lane will be slow-moving as it nears
the islands, prolonged heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash
flooding will be possible. Large and damaging surf can be
expected along exposed shorelines, along with localized storm surge.

2. As Lane approaches the islands from the southeast, initial
impacts will be felt on the Big Island and Maui County, where a
Hurricane Warning is in effect. Impacts on Kauai County and Oahu
are also possible, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect there.

3. Do not focus on the exact forecast track or intensity for Lane,
and be prepared for adjustments to the forecast. Life threatening
impacts can extend well away from the center of a hurricane.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 15.5N 155.9W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 16.2N 156.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 17.6N 157.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 18.9N 157.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 19.9N 157.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 20.8N 158.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 21.0N 162.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 20.9N 165.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster R Ballard

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA42 PHFO 221513 RRA
TCDCP2

HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
500 AM HST WED AUG 22 2018

A BIT OF ASYMMETRY WITHIN THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS IS NOW NOTICEABLE,
BUT LANE REMAINS A WELL-ORGANIZED HURRICANE THIS MORNING. OUTFLOW
REMAINS BEST TO THE NORTH THROUGH EAST AND IS SLIGHTLY RESTRICTED
ELSEWHERE. HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FROM THE 53RD WEATHER
RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON FLEW THROUGH LANE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT,
DERIVING 130 KT WITHIN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL (USING A BLEND OF
OBSERVATIONS). SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE
6.5/127 KT FROM ALL THREE CENTERS. ADT FROM UW-CIMSS WAS ALSO
6.5/127 KT. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 135 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY,
WHICH IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN FOR THE LAST ADVISORY.

INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 290/8 KT. LANE HAS LIKELY
REACHED THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND HAS MADE ITS
ANTICIPATED TURN TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST. LANE IS FORECAST TO
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY, AND TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY, AS IT MOVES BETWEEN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A
DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF HAWAII. THE TRACK
AND INTENSITY FORECASTS BECOME INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN AFTER THIS
POINT AS MOST TRACK GUIDANCE BRINGS LANE VERY CLOSE TO THE ISLANDS,
WITH POTENTIAL INTERACTION BETWEEN LANE AND THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN
OF THE ISLANDS. UW-CIMMS DERIVES 15 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR NOW AND
THIS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KT AT 48 HOURS, ACCORDING
TO ECMWF SHIPS. THE COMBINATION OF LAND INTERACTION AND INCREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR LEADS TO A WEAKENED LANE BEING STEERED TO THE WEST BY

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA42 PHFO 221513
TCDCP2

Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 32
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
500 AM HST Wed Aug 22 2018

A bit of asymmetry within the coldest cloud tops is now noticeable,
but Lane remains a well-organized hurricane this morning. Outflow
remains best to the north through east and is slightly restricted
elsewhere. Hurricane Hunter aircraft from the 53rd Weather
Reconnaissance Squadron flew through Lane once again overnight,
deriving 130 kt within the northeast eyewall (using a blend of
observations). Subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates were
6.5/127 kt from all three centers. ADT from UW-CIMSS was also
6.5/127 kt. Initial intensity is set at 135 kt for this advisory,
which is slightly lower than for the last advisory.

Initial motion for this advisory is 290/8 kt. Lane has likely
reached the western periphery of a mid-level ridge and has made its
anticipated turn toward the west northwest. Lane is forecast to
turn to the northwest later today, and to the north-northwest on
Thursday, as it moves between the mid-level ridge to the east and a
developing upper-level trough to the northwest of Hawaii. The track
and intensity forecasts become increasingly uncertain after this
point as most track guidance brings Lane very close to the islands,
with potential interaction between Lane and the mountainous terrain
of the islands. UW-CIMMS derives 15 kt of vertical shear now and
this is forecast to increase to 25 to 30 kt at 48 hours, according
to ECMWF SHIPS. The combination of land interaction and increasing
vertical shear leads to a weakened Lane being steered to the west by
the low-level trade wind flow during the later forecast periods. The
new track forecast closely resembles the previous one and follows
HCCA and TVCE between GFS and ECMWF. A slight bump to the left was
made through 36 hours to account for initial motion, while a slight
bump to the right was made to keep the track within the guidance
envelop at 48 and 72 hours.

Water temperatures along the forecast track will be 27 to 28
degrees C, warm enough to support a major hurricane. Therefore, any
significant weakening as Lane draws closer to the Hawaiian Islands
will likely be due to increasing wind shear. Through the next 36
hours, shear is expected to remain in the 10 to 20 kt range, and we
expect only slow weakening initially. At 48 hours and beyond, the
forecast incorporates an expected sharp increase in shear as Lane
moves closer to the large upper trough to the northwest of the main
Hawaiian Islands. The new intensity forecast is very similar to the
previous forecast and lies near the top of the guidance envelope
but not too far from HMNI and IVCN.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lane is forecast to move dangerously close to the main Hawaiian
Islands as a hurricane tomorrow through Saturday, potentially
bringing damaging winds and life-threatening flash flooding from
heavy rainfall. As Lane will be slow-moving as it nears the
islands, large and damaging surf can be expected along exposed
shorelines, along with localized storm surge.

2. As Lane approaches the islands from the southeast, initial
impacts will be felt on the Big Island and Maui County, where a
Hurricane Warning is in effect. Impacts on Kauai County and Oahu
are also possible, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect there.

3. Do not focus on the exact forecast track for Lane, as life-
threatening weather conditions extend well away from the center of
the hurricane, and significant impacts could be felt on any of the
islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 15.1N 155.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 15.8N 156.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 17.1N 157.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 18.4N 157.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 19.7N 158.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 21.0N 160.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 20.8N 163.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 20.6N 166.3W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Powell

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA42 PHFO 220856 RRA
TCDCP2

HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1100 PM HST TUE AUG 21 2018

LANE REMAINS AN IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE THIS EVENING, WITH A WELL-
DEVELOPED WARM EYE COMPLETELY SURROUNDED BY PERSISTENT COLD CLOUD
TOPS. OUTFLOW REMAINS BEST TO THE NORTH THROUGH EAST AND IS
SLIGHTLY RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FROM THE
53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON FLEW THROUGH LANE ONCE AGAIN
THIS EVENING, SHORTLY AFTER THE LAST FORECAST PACKAGE, AND FOUND
WINDS WITHIN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL OF 146 KT. BASED ON THIS
OBSERVATION, A SPECIAL FORECAST PACKAGE WAS ISSUED STRENGTHENING
LANE TO A CATAGORY 5 HURRICANE. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 6.5/127 KT (JTWC AND SAB) TO 7.0/140 KT (PHFO).
ADT FROM UW-CIMSS WAS 132 KT. BASED ON A BLEND OF AIRCRAFT-OBSERVED
CENTRAL PRESSURES AND WIND SPEEDS, WE WILL SET LANE'S INITIAL
INTENSITY TO 140 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.

INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 285/8 KT. LANE HAS BEEN MOVING
GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER, THIS CYCLONE WILL SOON BEGIN
TO ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE AND MOVE INTO AN AREA
OF RELATIVELY LIGHT STEERING FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW LANE TO GAIN
LATITUDE AS ITS FORWARD SPEED DIMINISHES. LANE IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT, THEN TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
ON WEDNESDAY, AND TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY, AS IT MOVES
BETWEEN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF HAWAII. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA42 PHFO 220856
TCDCP2

Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 31
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1100 PM HST Tue Aug 21 2018

Lane remains an impressive hurricane this evening, with a well-
developed warm eye completely surrounded by persistent cold cloud
tops. Outflow remains best to the north through east and is
slightly restricted elsewhere. Hurricane Hunter aircraft from the
53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron flew through Lane once again
this evening, shortly after the last forecast package, and found
winds within the northeast eyewall of 146 kt. Based on this
observation, a special forecast package was issued strengthening
Lane to a catagory 5 hurricane. Subjective Dvorak current intensity
estimates range from 6.5/127 kt (JTWC and SAB) to 7.0/140 kt (PHFO).
ADT from UW-CIMSS was 132 kt. Based on a blend of aircraft-observed
central pressures and wind speeds, we will set Lane's initial
intensity to 140 kt for this package.

Initial motion for this advisory is 285/8 kt. Lane has been moving
generally westward along the southern flank of a mid-level ridge
during the past several days. However, this cyclone will soon begin
to round the western periphery of this ridge and move into an area
of relatively light steering flow. This will allow Lane to gain
latitude as its forward speed diminishes. Lane is forecast to
continue moving west-northwest tonight, then turn to the northwest
on Wednesday, and to the north-northwest on Thursday, as it moves
between the mid-level ridge to the east and a developing upper-level
trough to the northwest of Hawaii. The track and intensity forecasts
become increasingly uncertain after this point as most track
guidance brings Lane very close to the islands, with potential
interaction between Lane and the mountainous terrain of the islands.
UW-CIMMS derives 13 kt of vertical shear now and this is forecast to
increase to 20 to 30 kt at 48 hours, according to ECMWF SHIPS. The
combination of land interaction and increasing vertical shear leads
to a weakened Lane being steered to the west by the low-level trade
wind flow during the later forecast periods. The new track forecast
closely follows the previous one and lies between GFS and ECMWF
along FSSE.

Water temperatures along the forecast track will be 27 to 28
degrees C, warm enough to support a major hurricane. Any
significant weakening as Lane draws closer to the Hawaiian
Islands will likely be due to increasing wind shear. Through the
next 36 to 48 hours, shear is expected to remain in the 10 to 20 kt
range, and we expect only slow weakening initially. At 48 hours and
beyond, the forecast incorporates an expected sharp increase in
shear as Lane moves closer to the large upper trough to the
northwest of the main Hawaiian Islands. The new intensity forecast
is very similar to the previous forecast, situated firmly between
the EMXI and IVCN ensemble guidance.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lane is forecast to move dangerously close to the main Hawaiian
Islands as a hurricane Thursday through Saturday, potentially
bringing damaging winds and life-threatening flash flooding from
heavy rainfall. As Lane is expected to be slow-moving as it nears
the islands, it will produce large and damaging surf.

2. As Lane approaches the islands from the southeast, initial
impacts will be felt on the Big Island, where a Hurricane Warning
is in effect. Preparations should be rushed to completion as
tropical-storm force winds are forecast to arrive by late Wednesday
or early Thursday. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for Maui
County and the island of Oahu, with tropical-storm force winds
possibly beginning Thursday or Thursday night.

3. Do not focus on the exact forecast track for Lane, as life-
threatening weather conditions extend well away from the center of
the hurricane, and impacts could be felt on any of the islands.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 14.7N 154.5W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 15.4N 155.6W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 16.6N 156.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 17.8N 157.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 19.1N 157.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 21.0N 159.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 21.2N 162.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 20.8N 165.3W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Powell

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA42 PHFO 220619 RRA
TCDCP2

HURRICANE LANE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
645 PM HST TUE AUG 21 2018

DATA FROM THE NOAA P-3 AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT LANE HAS STRENGTHENED
TO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE, AND THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY REPRESENTS AN
UPDATE TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY, AND THE FORECAST INTENSITY THROUGH
THE FIRST 36 HOURS. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. LANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS AS A HURRICANE LATER THIS WEEK, POTENTIALLY BRINGING
DAMAGING WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL ANYWHERE IN THE STATE. AS LANE IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW-MOVING AS IT NEARS THE ISLANDS, IT WILL PRODUCE LARGE AND
DAMAGING SURF.

2. AS LANE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST, THE EARLIEST POTENTIAL
THREAT TO LAND WILL BE FOR THE BIG ISLAND, WHERE A HURRICANE WARNING
IS NOW IN EFFECT. PREPARATIONS THERE SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION
AS TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO ARRIVE IN THE WARNING
AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR MAUI COUNTY, AND IS NOW POSTED FOR OAHU, WITH
TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLY BEGINNING THURSDAY OR THURSDAY
NIGHT.

3. DUE TO A CONTINUED HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE FORECAST
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF LANE, HURRICANE IMPACTS COULD BE FELT ACROSS
ANY OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PREDICT WHICH, IF
ANY, OF THE ISLANDS ARE DIRECTLY IMPACTED. REMEMBER THAT LIFE
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER
OF THE HURRICANE. INTERESTS THROUGHOUT HAWAII ARE URGED TO CLOSELY

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA42 PHFO 220619 CCA
TCDCP2

Hurricane Lane Special Discussion Number 30
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
645 PM HST Tue Aug 21 2018

Data from the NOAA P-3 aircraft indicate that Lane has strengthened
to a category 5 hurricane, and this special advisory represents an
update to the current intensity, and the forecast intensity through
the first 36 hours. No changes were made to the remainder of the
forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lane is forecast to move dangerously close to the main Hawaiian
Islands as a hurricane later this week, potentially bringing
damaging winds and life-threatening flash flooding from heavy
rainfall anywhere in the state. As Lane is expected to be
slow-moving as it nears the islands, it will produce large and
damaging surf.

2. As Lane moves up from the southeast, the earliest potential
threat to land will be for the Big Island, where a Hurricane Warning
is now in effect. Preparations there should be rushed to completion
as tropical-storm force winds are forecast to arrive in the warning
area by late Wednesday or early Thursday. A Hurricane Watch remains
in effect for Maui County, and is now posted for Oahu, with
tropical-storm force winds possibly beginning Thursday or Thursday
night.

3. Due to a continued high degree of uncertainty on the forecast
track and intensity of Lane, hurricane impacts could be felt across
any of the Hawaiian Islands. It is too early to predict which, if
any, of the islands are directly impacted. Remember that life
threatening weather conditions can extend well away from the center
of the hurricane. Interests throughout Hawaii are urged to closely
monitor the progress of Lane during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0430Z 14.5N 154.0W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 15.0N 155.0W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 16.0N 156.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 17.2N 156.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 18.6N 157.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 21.1N 158.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 21.5N 161.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 21.0N 164.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Birchard

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA42 PHFO 220453 RRA
TCDCP2

HURRICANE LANE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
645 PM HST TUE AUG 21 2018

DATA FROM THE NOAA P-3 AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT LANE HAS STRENGTHENED
TO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE, AND THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY REPRESENTS AN
UPDATE TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY, AND THE FORECAST INTENSITY THROUGH
THE FIRST 36 HOURS. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. LANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS AS A HURRICANE LATER THIS WEEK, POTENTIALLY BRINGING
DAMAGING WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL ANYWHERE IN THE STATE. AS LANE IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW-MOVING AS IT NEARS THE ISLANDS, IT WILL PRODUCE LARGE AND
DAMAGING SURF.

2. AS LANE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST, THE EARLIEST POTENTIAL
THREAT TO LAND WILL BE FOR THE BIG ISLAND, WHERE A HURRICANE WARNING
IS NOW IN EFFECT. PREPARATIONS THERE SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION
AS TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO ARRIVE IN THE WARNING
AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR MAUI COUNTY, AND IS NOW POSTED FOR OAHU, WITH
TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLY BEGINNING THURSDAY OR THURSDAY
NIGHT.

3. DUE TO A CONTINUED HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE FORECAST
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF LANE, HURRICANE IMPACTS COULD BE FELT ACROSS
ANY OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PREDICT WHICH, IF
ANY, OF THE ISLANDS ARE DIRECTLY IMPACTED. REMEMBER THAT LIFE
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER
OF THE HURRICANE. INTERESTS THROUGHOUT HAWAII ARE URGED TO CLOSELY

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA42 PHFO 220453
TCDCP2

Hurricane Lane Special Discussion Number 30
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
645 PM HST Tue Aug 21 2018

Data from the NOAA P-3 aircraft indicate that Lane has strengthened
to a category 5 hurricane, and this special advisory represents an
update to the current intensity, and the forecast intensity through
the first 36 hours. No changes were made to the remainder of the
forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lane is forecast to move dangerously close to the main Hawaiian
Islands as a hurricane later this week, potentially bringing
damaging winds and life-threatening flash flooding from heavy
rainfall anywhere in the state. As Lane is expected to be
slow-moving as it nears the islands, it will produce large and
damaging surf.

2. As Lane moves up from the southeast, the earliest potential
threat to land will be for the Big Island, where a Hurricane Warning
is now in effect. Preparations there should be rushed to completion
as tropical-storm force winds are forecast to arrive in the warning
area by late Wednesday or early Thursday. A Hurricane Watch remains
in effect for Maui County, and is now posted for Oahu, with
tropical-storm force winds possibly beginning Thursday or Thursday
night.

3. Due to a continued high degree of uncertainty on the forecast
track and intensity of Lane, hurricane impacts could be felt across
any of the Hawaiian Islands. It is too early to predict which, if
any, of the islands are directly impacted. Remember that life
threatening weather conditions can extend well away from the center
of the hurricane. Interests throughout Hawaii are urged to closely
monitor the progress of Lane during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0430Z 14.5N 154.0W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 15.0N 155.0W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 16.0N 156.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 17.2N 156.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 18.6N 157.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 21.1N 158.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 21.5N 161.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 21.0N 164.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Birchard

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA42 PHFO 220304 RRA
TCDCP2

HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
500 PM HST TUE AUG 21 2018

LANE REMAINS A POWERFUL HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A WELL-
DEVELOPED WARM EYE COMPLETELY SURROUNDED BY PERSISTENT COLD CLOUD
TOPS. THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FROM THE 53RD WEATHER
RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON HAS BEEN FLYING THROUGH LANE DURING THE DAY,
AND HAS PROVIDED INVALUABLE DATA. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE DROPPED
AROUND 10 MB BETWEEN THE 18Z AND 00Z FIXES, WITH THE LAST EYE
DROPSONDE MEASURING 930 MB WITH 16 KT SPLASH WIND, YIELDING A
MINIMUM PRESSURE ESTIMATE OF 929 MB. PEAK SFMR WINDS DURING THIS
MISSION WERE 140 KT, AND MAX FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 146 KT.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 6.5/127 KT
TO 7.0/140 KT, WITH THE LATEST ADT CURRENT INTENSITY HOLDING STEADY
AT 6.5/127 KT. ALTHOUGH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED SHARPLY
DURING THE LAST 18 HOURS, IT IS NOW ABOUT WHAT ONE WOULD EXPECT FOR
A HURRICANE OF STRONG CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
BASIN, AND BASED PRIMARILY ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA THE INTIAL INTENSITY
IS HELD AT 135 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

LANE HAS TURNED SLIGHTLY TO THE WNW TODAY, AND THE INITIAL MOTION
FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 285/8 KT. LANE HAS BEEN MOVING GENERALLY
WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE CHANGING SOON, AS LANE BEGINS TO ROUND
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE AND MOVES INTO AN AREA OF
RELATIVELY LIGHT STEERING FLOW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW THE
CYCLONE TO GAIN LATITUDE AS ITS FORWARD SPEED DIMINISHES. THE
HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT,

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA42 PHFO 220304
TCDCP2

Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 29
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
500 PM HST Tue Aug 21 2018

Lane remains a powerful hurricane this afternoon, with a well-
developed warm eye completely surrounded by persistent cold cloud
tops. The Hurricane Hunter aircraft from the 53rd Weather
Reconnaissance Squadron has been flying through Lane during the day,
and has provided invaluable data. The central pressure dropped
around 10 mb between the 18Z and 00Z fixes, with the last eye
dropsonde measuring 930 mb with 16 kt splash wind, yielding a
minimum pressure estimate of 929 mb. Peak SFMR winds during this
mission were 140 kt, and max flight level winds were 146 kt.
Subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates range from 6.5/127 kt
to 7.0/140 kt, with the latest ADT current intensity holding steady
at 6.5/127 kt. Although the central pressure has dropped sharply
during the last 18 hours, it is now about what one would expect for
a hurricane of strong Category 4 intensity in the Central Pacific
basin, and based primarily on the aircraft data the intial intensity
is held at 135 kt for this advisory.

Lane has turned slightly to the WNW today, and the initial motion
for this advisory is 285/8 kt. Lane has been moving generally
westward to the south of a mid-level ridge during the past several
days. However, this will be changing soon, as Lane begins to round
the western periphery of this ridge and moves into an area of
relatively light steering flow. This is expected to allow the
cyclone to gain latitude as its forward speed diminishes. The
hurricane is forecast to continue moving west-northwest tonight,
then turn to the northwest on Wednesday, and to the north-northwest
on Thursday, as it moves between the mid-level ridge to the east and
a developing upper-level trough to the northwest of Hawaii. After
this point, the track and intensity forecast become increasingly
uncertain, as the majority of the reliable model guidance
brings Lane very close to the islands with potential interaction
between Lane and the mountainous terrain of the islands. This
interaction combined with increasing vertical wind shear leads to a
weakened Lane being steered to the west by the low-level trade wind
flow during the later forecast periods. The new track forecast has
been nudged slightly to left through 36 hours, then slightly to the
right or closer to the islands at 72 hours, in very good agreement
with the multi-model consensus HCCA.

Water temperatures along the forecast track will be sufficiently
warm to support a major hurricane, and thus any significant
weakening before Lane draws closer to the Hawaiian Islands will
likely be due to increasing wind shear. Through the next 36 to 48
hours, shear is expected to remain light, and we expect only slow
weakening as the cyclone moves over slightly cooler SSTs and may be
impacted by eyewall replacement cycles. At 72 hours and beyond, the
forecast anticipates a sharp increase in shear as Lane moves closer
to the large upper trough to the northwest of the main Hawaiian
Islands. The new intensity forecast is very similar to the previous
forecast, and continues to follow the trend of the multi-model
consensus IVCN.

In addition to continued storm penetrations by the Hurricane Hunters
of the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, the NOAA P-3 aircraft
will also be flying into Lane again this evening. The NOAA G-IV
aircraft once again sampled the larger scale environment during the
day to help with initialization of the forecast models.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lane is forecast to move dangerously close to the main Hawaiian
Islands as a hurricane later this week, potentially bringing
damaging winds and life-threatening flash flooding from heavy

rainfall anywhere in the state. As Lane is expected to be
slow-moving as it nears the islands, it will produce large and
damaging surf.



2. As Lane moves up from the southeast, the earliest potential
threat to land will be for the Big Island, where a Hurricane Warning
is now in effect. Preparations there should be rushed to completion
as tropical-storm force winds are forecast to arrive in the warning
area by late Wednesday or early Thursday. A Hurricane Watch remains
in effect for Maui County, and is now posted for Oahu, with
tropical-storm force winds possibly beginning Thursday or Thursday
night.



3. Due to a continued high degree of uncertainty on the forecast
track and intensity of Lane, hurricane impacts could be felt across
any of the Hawaiian Islands. It is too early to predict which, if
any, of the islands are directly impacted. Remember that life
threatening weather conditions can extend well away from the center
of the hurricane. Interests throughout Hawaii are urged to closely
monitor the progress of Lane during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 14.5N 154.0W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 15.0N 155.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 16.0N 156.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 17.2N 156.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 18.6N 157.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 21.1N 158.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 21.5N 161.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 21.0N 164.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Jacobson

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA42 PHFO 212107 RRA
TCDCP2

HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1100 AM HST TUE AUG 21 2018

LANE REMAINS A POWERFUL HURRICANE THIS MORNING, WITH A WELL-
DEVELOPED WARM EYE COMPLETELY SURROUNDED BY PERSISTENT COLD CLOUD
TOPS. MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED
EYE. THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FROM THE 53RD WEATHER
RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON IS FLYING THROUGH LANE AGAIN THIS MORNING,
AND CONFIRMS THAT THE HURRICANE HAS INTENSIFIED FURTHER SINCE
THEIR PREVIOUS VISIT ON MONDAY EVENING. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
HAS DROPPED AROUND 10 MB DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH THE MOST
RECENT DROPSONDE IN THE EYE FINDING 941 MB. PEAK SFMR WINDS MEASURED
SO FAR HAVE BEEN 134 KT, AND MAX FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS ARE 143 KT.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 6.5/127 KT
TO 7.0/140 KT, WITH THE LATEST ADT CURRENT INTENSITY AT 6.4/125 KT.
BASED PRIMARILY ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA, THE INTIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS
ADVISORY IS INCREASED TO 135 KT, WHICH MAKES LANE A HIGH-END
CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE.

LANE IS MOVING A BIT SLOWER THIS MORNING AND APPEARS TO HAVE WOBBLED
SLIGHTLY TO THE WNW DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS, AND THE INITIAL
MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 280/8 KT. LANE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD
TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE CHANGING SOON, AS LANE BEGINS TO ROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE AND MOVES INTO AN AREA OF
RELATIVELY LIGHT STEERING FLOW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW THE
CYCLONE TO GAIN LATITUDE AS ITS FORWARD SPEED DIMINISHES. THE
HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO TURN GRADUALLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA42 PHFO 212107
TCDCP2

Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 28
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1100 AM HST Tue Aug 21 2018

Lane remains a powerful hurricane this morning, with a well-
developed warm eye completely surrounded by persistent cold cloud
tops. Morning visible satellite imagery also depicts a well-defined
eye. The Hurricane Hunter aircraft from the 53rd Weather
Reconnaissance Squadron is flying through Lane again this morning,
and confirms that the hurricane has intensified further since
their previous visit on Monday evening. The central pressure
has dropped around 10 mb during the past 12 hours, with the most
recent dropsonde in the eye finding 941 mb. Peak SFMR winds measured
so far have been 134 kt, and max flight level winds are 143 kt.
Subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates range from 6.5/127 kt
to 7.0/140 kt, with the latest ADT current intensity at 6.4/125 kt.
Based primarily on the aircraft data, the intial intensity for this
advisory is increased to 135 kt, which makes Lane a high-end
Category 4 hurricane.

Lane is moving a bit slower this morning and appears to have wobbled
slightly to the WNW during the last few hours, and the initial
motion for this advisory is 280/8 kt. Lane has been moving westward
to the south of a mid-level ridge during the past several days.
However, this will be changing soon, as Lane begins to round the
western periphery of this ridge and moves into an area of
relatively light steering flow. This is expected to allow the
cyclone to gain latitude as its forward speed diminishes. The
hurricane is forecast to turn gradually to the west-northwest
through tonight, then to the northwest Wednesday through Thursday,
as it moves between the mid-level ridge to the east and a developing
upper-level trough to the northwest of Hawaii. After this point, the
track and intensity forecasts remain highly uncertain, as the
majority of the reliable model guidance brings Lane very close to
the islands with potential interaction between Lane and the
mountainous terrain of the islands. This interaction combined with
increasing vertical wind shear leads to a weakened Lane being
steered to the west by the low-level trade wind flow. The new track
forecast has been nudged slightly to the north or closer to the
islands from 36 through 72 hours, into better agreement with the
multi-model consensus HCCA.

Water temperatures along the forecast track will be sufficiently
warm to support a major hurricane, and thus any significant
weakening before Lane draws closer to the Hawaiian Islands will
likely be due to increasing wind shear. In the short-term through
the next 24 hours or so, shear is expected to remain light, and
expect only slow weakening as the cyclone moves over slightly
cooler SSTs and may be impacted by eyewall replacement cycles.
At 72 hours and beyond, the forecast anticipates a sharp increase
in shear as Lane moves closer to the large upper trough to the
northwest of the main Hawaiian Islands. The new intensity
forecast is close to the previous forecast, and although it
remains on the high end of the guidance envelope, it generally
follows the trends presented by the multi-model consensus IVCN and
HCCA.

In addition to continued storm penetrations by the Hurricane Hunters
of the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, the NOAA G-IV will once
again be sampling the larger scale environment today to help with
initialization of the forecast models.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lane is forecast to move dangerously close to the main Hawaiian
Islands as a hurricane later this week, potentially bringing
damaging winds and life-threatening flash flooding from heavy
rainfall. As Lane is expected to be slow-moving as it nears the
islands, it will produce large and damaging surf. A Hurricane Watch
remains in effect for Hawaii and Maui counties, and additional
Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches may be required this afternoon
or tonight.

2. It is much too early to confidently determine which, if any, of
the main Hawaiian Islands will be directly impacted by Lane. Even
if the center of Lane were to remain offshore, it is important to
remember that impacts from a hurricane can extend well away from
the center. Interests throughout Hawaii are urged to closely
monitor the progress of Lane during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 14.3N 153.2W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 14.7N 154.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 15.6N 155.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 16.6N 156.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 17.9N 156.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 20.6N 158.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 21.7N 160.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 21.5N 164.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Jacobson

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA42 PHFO 211457
TCDCP2

Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 27
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
500 AM HST Tue Aug 21 2018


Lane remains a powerful hurricane this morning, with a well-
developed warm eye completely surrounded by persistent cold cloud
tops. Subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates were a
unanimous 6.5/127 kt while ADT was in relative agreement. The
initial intensity for this advisory remains at 130 kt as Lane's
satellite signature has changed little since last sampled by
Hurricane Hunters and the NOAA P-3 Monday evening.

The initial motion for this advisory is 275/10 kt, with Lane
continuing to be steered by a mid-level ridge to the north. Over
the next day or two, Lane is expected to reach the western periphery
of the ridge, and into an area of relatively light steering flow.
This is expected to allow the cyclone to gain latitude as its
forward speed diminishes. In this scenario, Lane will begin to make
a gradual turn to the west-northwest on Wednesday, with a more
decided turn toward the northwest on Thursday. After this point, the
track and intensity forecast become increasingly uncertain, as a
bulk of the model guidance is depicting interaction between Lane and
the terrain of the islands. This interaction then leads to a
weakened Lane increasingly being steered by the low-level trade wind
flow. The updated track forecast is essentially an update of the
previous official forecast, and lies very close to the multi-model
consensus HCCA.

Water temperatures along the forecast track will be sufficiently
warm to support a major hurricane, and thus any significant
weakening before Lane draws closer to the Hawaiian Islands will
likely be due to shear. In the short-term, shear is expected to
remain light, and subtle intensity fluctuations associated with
inner-core dynamics will likely lead to little overall change in
intensity. By 72 hours, the forecast anticipates an increase in
shear as Lane lies between the ridge to the east and a trough
aloft to the northwest of the main Hawaiian Islands. The updated
intensity forecast is close to the previous, and although it is on
the higher end of the guidance envelope, it closely follows
the trends presented by the multi-model consensus IVCN.

In addition to an increasing number of storm penetrations by the
Hurricane Hunters of the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance, the NOAA G-IV
will once again be sampling the larger scale environment to help
forecast models better initialize. The NOAA P-3 mission slated for
this morning has been scrapped as the aircraft needs to be examined
after encountering strong turbulence last night.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lane is forecast to move dangerously close to the main Hawaiian
Islands as a hurricane later this week, potentially bringing
damaging winds and life-threatening flash flooding from heavy
rainfall. As Lane is expected to be slow-moving as it nears the
islands, it will produce large and damaging surf, mainly along
exposed south and west facing shores. A Hurricane Watch has been
issued for Hawaii and Maui counties, and additional Tropical
Storm or Hurricane Watches may be required later today or tonight.

2. It is much too early to confidently determine which, if any, of
the main Hawaiian Islands will be directly impacted by Lane. Even
if the center of Lane were to remain offshore, it is important to
remember that impacts from a hurricane can extend well away from
the center. Interests throughout Hawaii are urged to closely
monitor the progress of Lane the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 14.1N 152.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 14.4N 153.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 15.0N 154.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 15.9N 155.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 17.0N 156.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 19.7N 157.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 21.5N 159.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 21.5N 163.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Birchard

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA42 PHFO 211457 RRA
TCDCP2

HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
500 AM HST TUE AUG 21 2018


LANE REMAINS A POWERFUL HURRICANE THIS MORNING, WITH A WELL-
DEVELOPED WARM EYE COMPLETELY SURROUNDED BY PERSISTENT COLD CLOUD
TOPS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE A
UNANIMOUS 6.5/127 KT WHILE ADT WAS IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY REMAINS AT 130 KT AS LANE'S
SATELLITE SIGNATURE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE LAST SAMPLED BY
HURRICANE HUNTERS AND THE NOAA P-3 MONDAY EVENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 275/10 KT, WITH LANE
CONTINUING TO BE STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, LANE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE, AND INTO AN AREA OF RELATIVELY LIGHT STEERING FLOW.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO GAIN LATITUDE AS ITS
FORWARD SPEED DIMINISHES. IN THIS SCENARIO, LANE WILL BEGIN TO MAKE
A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY, WITH A MORE
DECIDED TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. AFTER THIS POINT, THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST BECOME INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN, AS A
BULK OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING INTERACTION BETWEEN LANE AND
THE TERRAIN OF THE ISLANDS. THIS INTERACTION THEN LEADS TO A
WEAKENED LANE INCREASINGLY BEING STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND
FLOW. THE UPDATED TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST, AND LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS HCCA.

WATER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY
WARM TO SUPPORT A MAJOR HURRICANE, AND THUS ANY SIGNIFICANT

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA42 PHFO 210857 RRA
TCDCP2

HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1100 PM HST MON AUG 20 2018


LANE HAS QUITE AN IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE SIGNATURE THIS EVENING, WITH
A SOLID RING OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING A WARMING EYE.
AIRCRAFT FROM NOAA AND THE 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON
HAVE BEEN FLYING THROUGH LANE AT 8 TO 10 THOUSAND FEET RESPECTIVELY
THIS EVENING, AND ARE CONFIRMING THAT LANE IS A POWERFUL HURRICANE
THAT HAS INTENSIFIED SINCE THEIR LAST VISIT THIS MORNING. THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED ROUGHLY 10 MB, PEAK SFMR WINDS WERE 140
KT WITH MAX FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS NEAR 128 KT, AND AN EYEWALL
DROPSONDE RECORDED WINDS NEAR 139 KT. BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
AIRCRAFT DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS INCREASED
TO 130 KT, MAINTAINING LANE AS A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE.

THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 280/10 KT, WITH LANE
CONTINUING TO BE STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE
NORTH. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, LANE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO GAIN
LATITUDE. SOME INCREASE IN THE CLUSTERING OF THE TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS OCCURRED THIS CYCLE, WITH THE ECMWF NO LONGER ON THE
LEFT HAND SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE. ALL OF THE RELIABLE MODEL GUIDANCE
NOW INDICATES THAT LANE WILL BEGIN TO MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY, WITH A GRADUAL SLOWING IN FORWARD
SPEED. A MORE DECIDED TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY, WITH RELATIVELY SLOW-MOVING LANE NOW FORECAST TO MOVE
DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. A TURN TOWARD THE

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA42 PHFO 210857
TCDCP2

Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 26
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1100 PM HST Mon Aug 20 2018


Lane has quite an impressive satellite signature this evening, with
a solid ring of very cold cloud tops surrounding a warming eye.
Aircraft from NOAA and the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron
have been flying through lane at 8 to 10 thousand feet respectively
this evening, and are confirming that Lane is a powerful hurricane
that has intensified since their last visit this morning. The
central pressure has dropped roughly 10 mb, peak SFMR winds were 140
kt with max flight level winds near 128 kt, and an eyewall
dropsonde recorded winds near 139 kt. Based on a blend of the
aircraft data, the initial intensity for this advisory is increased
to 130 kt, maintaining Lane as a powerful category 4 hurricane.

The initial motion for this advisory is 280/10 kt, with Lane
continuing to be steered by a mid-level ridge centered to the
north. Over the next couple of days, Lane is expected to reach the
western periphery of the ridge, allowing the cyclone to gain
latitude. Some increase in the clustering of the track model
guidance has occurred this cycle, with the ECMWF no longer on the
left hand side of the envelope. All of the reliable model guidance
now indicates that Lane will begin to make a gradual turn to the
west-northwest by Wednesday, with a gradual slowing in forward
speed. A more decided turn toward the northwest is expected
Thursday, with relatively slow-moving Lane now forecast to move
dangerously close to the main Hawaiian Islands. A turn toward the
west is expected in the later forecast periods, with forecast models
indicating a weakened Lane increasingly being steered by the
low-level trade wind flow. The updated track forecast lies between
the previous official forecast and the HCCA.

The weakening in the latter forecast periods appears to be related
to an increase in vertical wind shear, but it also appears that
forecast models are expecting interaction with island terrain to
interrupt the low-level wind flow into Lane. Water temperatures
along the forecast track will be sufficiently warm to support a
major hurricane, and thus any significant weakening before Lane
draws closer to the Hawaiian Islands will likely be due to shear.
With shear expected to be minimal in the short term, subtle
intensity fluctuations associated with inner-core dynamics will
likely lead to little overall change in intensity. The later
forecast periods anticipate an increase in shear as Lane will lie
between the ridge to the east and trough aloft to the northwest of
the main Hawaiian Islands, and the updated intensity forecast has
been nudged upward in the short term due to recent trends and
follows the previous official forecast in the latter forecast
periods, close to the IVCN consensus.

The uncertainty in the track forecast necessitates that interests in
the Hawaiian Islands continue to closely monitor Lane the next
couple of days. It is important to not focus on the exact forecast
track, as impacts from Lane extend well away from its center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 14.0N 151.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 14.3N 152.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 14.7N 153.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 15.4N 155.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 16.4N 156.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 18.9N 157.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 20.7N 159.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 21.0N 161.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Birchard

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA42 PHFO 210310 RRA
TCDCP2

HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25...CORRECTED
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
500 PM HST MON AUG 20 2018

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE,
DISTINCT EYE ON HURRICANE LANE, THOUGH THE CONVECTION SURROUNDING
THE CORE LOOKS MORE RAGGED ON THE LAST FEW INFRARED IMAGES. A 2258Z
AMSR2 PASS INDICATED THAT LANE HAD A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL STRUCTURE.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGED FROM 5.5 FROM SAB AND JTWC TO
6.0 FROM PHFO. CIMSS ADT HAD 5.5 AT 0000Z BUT HAS SINCE RISEN TO
6.0. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES AND THE EARLIER RECONNAISANCE DATA,
WE HAVE MAINTAINED A 115 KT INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. ANOTHER
AIRCRAFT RECONNAISANCE MISSION WILL INVESTIGATE LANE THIS EVENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE CONTINUES TO BE 280/10. A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF LANE CONTINUES TO STEER THE SYSTEM WESTWARD.
HOWEVER, CHANGES IN THE STEERING PATTERN ARE EXPECTED RELATIVELY
SOON, AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS ANE LEAVES A WEAKNESS TO THE NORTH OF
LANE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO BEGIN GAINING
LATITUDE A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY BY 48 HOURS.

THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH A COUPLE OF FACTORS THAT MAKE THE
TRACK FORECAST BEYOND 48 HOURS VERY CHALLENGING. ONE IS THE
EVOLUTION OF A NEW RIDGE WHICH DEVELOPS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LANE, AND THE OTHER IS THE EFFECT OF GRADUALLY INCREASING SHEAR. THE
ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE, AND STARTS SHEARING THE SYSTEM
SOONER, SO THE TRACK IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
THE GFS AND NAVGEM ARE QUITE A BIT WEAKER WITH THE RIDGE, AND KEEP
LANE AWAY FROM THE WESTERLY SHEAR LONGER. THERE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA42 PHFO 210310
TCDCP2

Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 25...Corrected
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
500 PM HST Mon Aug 20 2018

Visible satellite imagery this afternoon shows an impressive,
distinct eye on Hurricane Lane, though the convection surrounding
the core looks more ragged on the last few infrared images. A 2258Z
AMSR2 pass indicated that Lane had a concentric eyewall structure.
Satellite intensity estimates ranged from 5.5 from SAB and JTWC to
6.0 from PHFO. CIMSS ADT had 5.5 at 0000Z but has since risen to
6.0. Based on these estimates and the earlier reconnaisance data,
we have maintained a 115 kt intensity for this advisory. Another
aircraft reconnaisance mission will investigate Lane this evening.

The initial motion estimate continues to be 280/10. A subtropical
ridge to the north of Lane continues to steer the system westward.
However, changes in the steering pattern are expected relatively
soon, as the ridge weakens ane leaves a weakness to the north of
Lane. This will allow the tropical cyclone to begin gaining
latitude a little more quickly by 48 hours.

The models are struggling with a couple of factors that make the
track forecast beyond 48 hours very challenging. One is the
evolution of a new ridge which develops to the east and southeast of
Lane, and the other is the effect of gradually increasing shear. The
ECMWF is stronger with the ridge, and starts shearing the system
sooner, so the track is on the left side of the guidance envelope.
The GFS and NAVGEM are quite a bit weaker with the ridge, and keep
Lane away from the westerly shear longer. There do not appear to be
any clear signals at this point to suggest which track to favor,
and so we continue to follow the consensus guidance which is down
the middle of an uncomfortably large guidance envelope. A turn more
toward the west is expected toward the end of the period as Lane is
expected to be decoupled and move as a shallower system in the
trades. The rather large uncertainty in the track forecast
necessitates close attention by interests in the Hawaiian Islands
over the next couple of days. It is important to not focus your
attention on the exact forecast track, and be prepared for changes
to the forecast.

Weak to moderate southwesterly shear and sea surface temperatures
near 28C are sufficient to allow Lane to maintain intensity for the
next 24 hours or so. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
due to difficult to forecast eyewall replacement cycles. As
mentioned before, increasing shear will lead to a gradual weakening
trend at first, with more rapid weakening expected beyond 72 hours
as Lane approaches stronger winds aloft from a subtropical jet
stream.

The larger than normal uncertainty in the future track of Lane
necessitates close attention by interests in the Hawaiian Islands
over the next few days as Lane approaches the islands. It is
important not to focus on the exact forecast track, and be prepared
for changes to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 13.8N 150.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 14.0N 151.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 14.3N 153.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 14.8N 154.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 15.7N 155.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 17.9N 157.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 20.0N 159.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 26/0000Z 20.8N 161.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster R Ballard

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA42 PHFO 210303 RRA
TCDCP2

HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
500 PM HST MON AUG 20 2018

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE,
DISTINCT EYE ON HURRICANE LANE, THOUGH THE CONVECTION SURROUNDING
THE CORE LOOKS MORE RAGGED ON THE LAST FEW INFRARED IMAGES. A 2258Z
AMSR2 PASS INDICATED THAT LANE HAD A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL STRUCTURE.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGED FROM 5.5 FROM SAB AND JTWC TO
6.0 FROM PHFO. CIMSS ADT HAD 5.5 AT 0000Z BUT HAS SINCE RISEN TO
6.0. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES AND THE EARLIER RECONNAISANCE DATA,
WE HAVE MAINTAINED A 115 KT INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. ANOTHER
AIRCRAFT RECONNAISANCE MISSION WILL INVESTIGATE LANE THIS EVENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE CONTINUES TO BE 280/10. A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF LANE CONTINUES TO STEER THE SYSTEM WESTWARD.
HOWEVER, CHANGES IN THE STEERING PATTERN ARE EXPECTED RELATIVELY
SOON, AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS ANE LEAVES A WEAKNESS TO THE NORTH OF
LANE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO BEGIN GAINING
LATITUDE A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY BY 48 HOURS.

THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH A COUPLE OF FACTORS THAT MAKE THE
TRACK FORECAST BEYOND 48 HOURS VERY CHALLENGING. ONE IS THE
EVOLUTION OF A NEW RIDGE WHICH DEVELOPS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LANE, AND THE OTHER IS THE EFFECT OF GRADUALLY INCREASING SHEAR. THE
ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE, AND STARTS SHEARING THE SYSTEM
SOONER, SO THE TRACK IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
THE GFS AND NAVGEM ARE QUITE A BIT WEAKER WITH THE RIDGE, AND KEEP
LANE AWAY FROM THE WESTERLY SHEAR LONGER. THERE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA42 PHFO 210303
TCDCP2

Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 25
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
500 PM HST Mon Aug 20 2018

Visible satellite imagery this afternoon shows an impressive,
distinct eye on Hurricane lane, though the convection surrounding
the core looks more ragged on the last few infrared images. A 2258Z
AMSR2 pass indicated that Lane had a concentric eyewall structure.
Satellite intensity estimates ranged from 5.5 from SAB and JTWC to
6.0 from PHFO. CIMSS ADT had 5.5 at 0000Z but has since risen to
6.0. Based on these estimates and the earlier reconnaisance data,
we have maintained a 115 kt intensity for this advisory. Another
aircraft reconnaisance mission will investigate Lane this evening.

The initial motion estimate continues to be 280/10. A subtropical
ridge to the north of Lane continues to steer the system westward.
However, changes in the steering pattern are expected relatively
soon, as the ridge weakens ane leaves a weakness to the north of
Lane. This will allow the tropical cyclone to begin gaining
latitude a little more quickly by 48 hours.

The models are struggling with a couple of factors that make the
track forecast beyond 48 hours very challenging. One is the
evolution of a new ridge which develops to the east and southeast of
Lane, and the other is the effect of gradually increasing shear. The
ECMWF is stronger with the ridge, and starts shearing the system
sooner, so the track is on the left side of the guidance envelope.
The GFS and NAVGEM are quite a bit weaker with the ridge, and keep
Lane away from the westerly shear longer. There do not appear to be
any clear signals at this point to suggest which track to favor,
and so we continue to follow the consensus guidance which is down
the middle of an uncomfortably large guidance envelope. A turn more
toward the west is expected toward the end of the period as Lane is
expected to be decoupled and move as a shallower system in the
trades. The rather large uncertainty in the track forecast
necessitates close attention by interests in the Hawaiian Islands
over the next couple of days. It is important to not focus your
attention on the exact forecast track, and be prepared for changes
to the forecast.

Weak to moderate southwesterly shear and sea surface temperatures
near 28C are sufficient to allow Lane to maintain intensity for the
next 24 hours or so. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
due to difficult to forecast eyewall replacement cycles. As
mentioned before, increasing shear will lead to a gradual weakening
trend at first, with more rapid weakening expected beyond 72 hours
as Lane approaches stronger winds aloft from a subtropical jet
stream.

The larger than normal uncertainty in the future track of Lane
necessitates close attention by interests in the Hawaiian Islands
over the next few days as Lane approaches the islands. It is
important not to focus on the exact forecast track, and be prepared
for changes to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 13.8N 150.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 14.0N 151.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 14.3N 153.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 14.8N 154.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 15.7N 155.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 17.9N 157.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 20.0N 159.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 26/0000Z 20.8N 161.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster R Ballard

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA42 PHFO 202115
TCDCP2

Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 24
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1100 AM HST Mon Aug 20 2018

Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters found a maximum flight level
wind of 121 kt, and the NOAA Hurricane Hunters found maximum SFMR
wind of 113 kt earlier on the northwest quadrant. The 15 to 20 nm
diameter eye had also temporarily become more distinct over the past
6 to 8 hours, and this was the justifiation for raising the current
intensity slightly to 115 kt. This is somewhat higher than the 18z
satellite based estimates were showing. The eye has since started
to become less distinct once again in satellite imagery.

The initial motion is 280/10, slightly slower than the previous
advisory. Lane is marching toward the west on the southern flank
of a large subtropical ridge. In the near term, the track guidance
is in excellent agreement. This motion is expected to gradually turn
more toward the west-northwest, and then finally northwest over the
next few days as the ridge weakens and erodes. Beyond 48 hours, the
forecast becomes quite challenging. The guidance shows increasing
spread due to noteworthy differences in the handling of the strength
of the ridge to the east and southeast of the cyclone. The GFS
remains on the far right side of the guidance with a harder right
turn starting around 72 hours, and the ECMWF shows a more gentle
curve. The consensus guidance remains split down the middle of these
two camps and did not change much from the previous advisory. The
forecast track at 96 hours was nudged slightly eastward to better
agree with the consensus guidance, but it should be noted that in
this situation, forecast confidence is lower than normal. A turn
back toward the west-northwest is expected toward the end of the
forecast period as strong wind shear begins to impact Lane, but this
is also a rather low confidence scenario.

Lane is expected to remain over 28C sea surface temperatures in the
short term in a weak to moderate shear environment that should allow
the hurricane to maintain intensity. After a day or two, the models
show increasing shear beginning to work on the circulation and
weaken the system. However, there are some differences as to when
that will begin. The intensity forecast shows a slow weakening
trend beginning in the 24 to 36 hour time frame in good agreement
with the intensity consensus guidance. Once shear increases in the
48 to 72 hour time frame, a somewhat faster weakening trend is
anticipated which should continue through the rest of the forecast
period.

Interests in the main Hawaiian Islands, as well as the northwestern
Hawaiian Islands, should continue to monitor the progress of Lane
this week. With such a complex forecast scenario, it is especially
important not to focus on the exact forecast track and intensity
and be ready for changes to both.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 13.6N 149.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 13.7N 150.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 13.9N 152.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 14.3N 153.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 14.9N 155.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 16.9N 157.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 24/1800Z 19.4N 158.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 25/1800Z 20.6N 160.4W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster R Ballard

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA42 PHFO 202115 RRA
TCDCP2

HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1100 AM HST MON AUG 20 2018

AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND A MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL
WIND OF 121 KT, AND THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND MAXIMUM SFMR
WIND OF 113 KT EARLIER ON THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THE 15 TO 20 NM
DIAMETER EYE HAD ALSO TEMPORARILY BECOME MORE DISTINCT OVER THE PAST
6 TO 8 HOURS, AND THIS WAS THE JUSTIFIATION FOR RAISING THE CURRENT
INTENSITY SLIGHTLY TO 115 KT. THIS IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN THE 18Z
SATELLITE BASED ESTIMATES WERE SHOWING. THE EYE HAS SINCE STARTED
TO BECOME LESS DISTINCT ONCE AGAIN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/10, SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. LANE IS MARCHING TOWARD THE WEST ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK
OF A LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IN THE NEAR TERM, THE TRACK GUIDANCE
IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN
MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST, AND THEN FINALLY NORTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND ERODES. BEYOND 48 HOURS, THE
FORECAST BECOMES QUITE CHALLENGING. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING
SPREAD DUE TO NOTEWORTHY DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE STRENGTH
OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. THE GFS
REMAINS ON THE FAR RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH A HARDER RIGHT
TURN STARTING AROUND 72 HOURS, AND THE ECMWF SHOWS A MORE GENTLE
CURVE. THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE REMAINS SPLIT DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THESE
TWO CAMPS AND DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE
FORECAST TRACK AT 96 HOURS WAS NUDGED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TO BETTER
AGREE WITH THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE, BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IN

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA42 PHFO 201510 RRA
TCDCP2

HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
500 AM HST MON AUG 20 2018

AIRCRAFT FROM THE NOAA AIRCRAFT OPERATION CENTER AND THE U.S. AIR
FORCE RESERVES 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON DEPARTED
HURRICANE LANE LATE SUNDAY EVENING. IN THE MEANTIME, WE ARE RELYING
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY TO TRACK LANE'S PROGRESS. A WARM SPOT, WHICH
APPEARS TO BE INDICATIVE OF AN EYE, APPEARED IN THE INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SEVERAL HOURS AGO. RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA SENT
FROM THE NOAA AIRCRAFT BETWEEN 0510Z AND 0722Z SHOWED THAT LANE'S
EYEWALL WAS OPEN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. MORE RECENTLY, A
1237Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE APPEARS TO SHOW THAT THE EYEWALL HAS NOW
BECOME DISTINCT IN ALL QUADRANTS. ALL OF THE SATELLITE FIX AGENCIES
(PHFO, SAB, AND JTWC) BASED THEIR SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ON AN .EYE PATTERN.. THESE ESTIMATES RANGED
FROM 90 TO 102 KNOTS. THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE APPEARS TO BE
AN UNREALISTICALLY LOW 77 KNOTS. SINCE THE AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS
WERE MUCH STRONGER EARLIER TONIGHT AND THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF
THE HURRICANE APPEARS TO BE IMPROVING, WE WILL MAINTAIN THE INITIAL
INTENSITY AT 110 KNOTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 275/12 KNOTS. LANE CONTINUES
TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A LARGE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE
BEYOND DAY 2 DUE TO THE VARIATIONS IN THE WAY THE INDIVIDUAL MODELS
HANDLE THE EROSION OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THIS RIDGE AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS DOWN NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS IS

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA42 PHFO 201510
TCDCP2

Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 23
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
500 AM HST Mon Aug 20 2018

Aircraft from the NOAA Aircraft Operation Center and the U.S. Air
Force Reserves 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron departed
Hurricane Lane late Sunday evening. In the meantime, we are relying
on satellite imagery to track Lane's progress. A warm spot, which
appears to be indicative of an eye, appeared in the infrared
satellite imagery several hours ago. Radar reflectivity data sent
from the NOAA aircraft between 0510z and 0722z showed that Lane's
eyewall was open in the southeastern quadrant. More recently, a
1237z SSMI microwave image appears to show that the eyewall has now
become distinct in all quadrants. All of the satellite fix agencies
(PHFO, SAB, and JTWC) based their subjective Dvorak current
intensity estimates on an eye pattern. These estimates ranged
from 90 to 102 knots. The latest UW-CIMSS ADT estimate appears to be
an unrealistically low 77 knots. Since the aircraft observations
were much stronger earlier tonight and the overall appearance of
the hurricane appears to be improving, we will maintain the initial
intensity at 110 knots.

The initial motion for this advisory is 275/12 knots. Lane continues
to track westward along the southern flank of a large subtropical
ridge. There is still significant spread in the track guidance
beyond day 2 due to the variations in the way the individual models
handle the erosion of the western portion of this ridge as an
upper-level trough digs down northwest of the main Hawaiian Islands
in about 72 hours. The latest forecast track through 48 hours is
close to the previous forecast. However, due to overwhelming
evidence that the western end of the ridge will erode from days 3
through 5, we again had to shift the track far to the right. The
latest forecast track is much closer to the TVCN/TVCX and GFEX
consensus models. It is also to the right of the ECMWF, and to
the left of the GFS and HWRF track guidance. Note that another NOAA
G-IV mission to sample the environment around Lane is scheduled for
this afternoon. The data from this aircraft will be used to improve
the initial fields in the hurricane forecast models.

The latest intensity forecast has been nudged up slightly compared
with the previous one. Lane will remain over 27-28 degree C waters
through the forecast period. Shear of 10 to 15 knots is expected
during the next 6 hours or so, followed by reduced shear during the
12 to 48 hour time periods. After that, vertical shear is expected
to increase, which would likely result in steady weakening. Lane
may possibly become a tropical storm by day 5. This intensity
forecast closely follows the IVCN consensus guidance. Note that
with the eye becoming more distinct, there is a possibility that
Lane may be undergoing a new period of intensification. Additional
reconnaissance aircraft will be flying into the system soon, so we
expect to receive direct measurements of the cyclone's intensity in
a few hours.

Due to the large uncertainty in the future track and intensity of
Lane, all interests in the Hawaiian Islands, including the
Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, should continue to closely monitor
the future progress of this system. Based on the latest trends in
the forecast, direct impacts on the islands appear to be
increasingly likely. The latest trends in tropical cyclone wind
speed probabilities also suggest that a Tropical Storm or Hurricane
Watch may be needed for some parts of the island chain later today
or tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 13.7N 148.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 13.9N 149.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 14.2N 151.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 14.5N 153.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 15.0N 154.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 16.6N 157.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 19.0N 159.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 21.0N 160.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Houston

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA42 PHFO 200913
TCDCP2

Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 22
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1100 PM HST Sun Aug 19 2018

Aircraft from the NOAA Aircraft Operation Center and the U.S. Air
Force Reserves 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron have been
sampling Hurricane Lane this evening. The data provided by these
missions have been invaluable. Based on satellite intensity
estimates ranging from 87 to 102 knots and Lane's poor
representation in satellite imagery, we might have considered
weakening the hurricane. Instead, the aircraft found peak
flight-level and SFMR winds of 113 knots in the northwest
quadrant. In addition, a dropsonde estimated surface wind of 117
knots was also found in the northwest eyewall. Based on these
aircraft observations, we have increased the initial intensity to
110 knots.

The initial motion for this advisory is 275/12 knots. Lane continues
tracking westward along the southern flank of a large subtropical
ridge. There is still quite a bit of spread in track guidance beyond
day 2 as individual models handle the erosion of the western portion
of this ridge differently, due to the forecast of an upper-level
trough digging down northwest of the main Hawaiian Islands later
this week. The latest forecast track through 48 hours is close to
the previous forecast. However, due to overwhelming evidence that
the western end of the ridge will erode from days 3 through 5, we
had to shift the track far to the right. The latest forecast track
remains to the right of the ECMWF, which is far left of the GFS,
HWRF, and consensus models.

The latest intensity forecast has been nudged up slightly compared
with the previous one. This is based on the stronger initial
intensity based on the aircraft, as well as the latest guidance.
Lane will remain over 27-28 degree C waters through the forecast
period. Shear of 10 to 15 knots is expected during the next 12
hours, followed by reduced shear during the 24 to 48 hour time
periods. After that, increasing vertical shear is expected to cause
steady weakening, with Lane possibly becoming a tropical storm by
Day 5. This intensity forecast closely follows the IVCN consensus
guidance.

Due to the large uncertainty in the future track and intensity of
Lane, all interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to
monitor the future progress of this system. Based on the latest
trends in the forecast, direct impacts on the islands can not be
ruled out. The latest trends in tropical cyclone wind speed
probabilities also suggest that a Tropical Storm Watch may be
needed for some parts of the island chain early this week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 13.8N 147.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 13.9N 148.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 14.1N 150.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 14.4N 152.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 14.7N 153.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 15.9N 156.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 24/0600Z 17.5N 158.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 25/0600Z 20.0N 160.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Houston

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA42 PHFO 200913 RRA
TCDCP2

HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1100 PM HST SUN AUG 19 2018

AIRCRAFT FROM THE NOAA AIRCRAFT OPERATION CENTER AND THE U.S. AIR
FORCE RESERVES 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON HAVE BEEN
SAMPLING HURRICANE LANE THIS EVENING. THE DATA PROVIDED BY THESE
MISSIONS HAVE BEEN INVALUABLE. BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 87 TO 102 KNOTS AND LANE'S POOR
REPRESENTATION IN SATELLITE IMAGERY, WE MIGHT HAVE CONSIDERED
WEAKENING THE HURRICANE. INSTEAD, THE AIRCRAFT FOUND PEAK
FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS OF 113 KNOTS IN THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT. IN ADDITION, A DROPSONDE ESTIMATED SURFACE WIND OF 117
KNOTS WAS ALSO FOUND IN THE NORTHWEST EYEWALL. BASED ON THESE
AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS, WE HAVE INCREASED THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO
110 KNOTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 275/12 KNOTS. LANE CONTINUES
TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A LARGE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN TRACK GUIDANCE BEYOND
DAY 2 AS INDIVIDUAL MODELS HANDLE THE EROSION OF THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THIS RIDGE DIFFERENTLY, DUE TO THE FORECAST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING DOWN NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS LATER
THIS WEEK. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS IS CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER, DUE TO OVERWHELMING EVIDENCE THAT
THE WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE WILL ERODE FROM DAYS 3 THROUGH 5, WE
HAD TO SHIFT THE TRACK FAR TO THE RIGHT. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK
REMAINS TO THE RIGHT OF THE ECMWF, WHICH IS FAR LEFT OF THE GFS,
HWRF, AND CONSENSUS MODELS.

THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED UP SLIGHTLY COMPARED

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA42 PHFO 200306 RRA
TCDCP2

HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
500 PM HST SUN AUG 19 2018

LANE'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE LATE THIS
MORNING. THE MAIN FEATURES INCLUDE A MURKY CLOUD-FILLED EYE
SURROUNDED BY A SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE RING. OUTFLOW IS BEST TO THE
NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST, BUT REMAINS SOMEWHAT CONSTRICTED ELSEWHERE
IN THE FACE OF 17 KT OF UW-CIMSS-DERIVED SOUTHWEST VERTICAL SHEAR.
THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS, -75 TO -80 DEGREES C, ARE WITHIN THE NORTH
QUADRANT OF THE CONVECTIVE RING. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 5.0/90 KT (SAB) TO 6.0/115 KT
(PHFO). JTWC ESTIMATED 5.5/102 KT WHILE UW-CIMSS ESTIMATED 5.0/90
KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS PACKAGE IS SET AT 105 KT,
REPRESENTING A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT DOWNWARD USING A BLEND OF
ESTIMATES.

INITIAL MOTION IS A STEADY 280/12 KT AS LANE CONTINUES TRACKING
WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN TRACK GUIDANCE BEYOND DAY 2
AS INDIVIDUAL MODELS HANDLE THE EROSION OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THIS RIDGE DIFFERENTLY, THANKS TO THE FORECAST INTRUSION OF A WEAK
FRONTAL BAND FAR NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. GFS AND
HWRF REPRESENT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, WHILE
ECMWF LIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK LIES
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, CLOSELY
FOLLOWING FSSE AND TVCX CONSENSUS THROUGH 96 HOURS, THEN BENDING
LEFT AT 120 HOURS AND BEYOND BETWEEN TVCX AND ECMWF GUIDANCE. THE
ONLY NOTICEABLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK IS A SLIGHT BUMP TO

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA42 PHFO 200306
TCDCP2

Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 21
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
500 PM HST Sun Aug 19 2018

Lane's satellite presentation has not changed much since late this
morning. The main features include a murky cloud-filled eye
surrounded by a symmetric convective ring. Outflow is best to the
north through northeast, but remains somewhat constricted elsewhere
in the face of 17 kt of UW-CIMSS-derived southwest vertical shear.
The coldest cloud tops, -75 to -80 degrees C, are within the north
quadrant of the convective ring. The latest subjective Dvorak
intensity estimates range from 5.0/90 kt (SAB) to 6.0/115 kt
(PHFO). JTWC estimated 5.5/102 kt while UW-CIMSS estimated 5.0/90
kt. The initial intensity for this package is set at 105 kt,
representing a slight adjustment downward using a blend of
estimates.

Initial motion is a steady 280/12 kt as Lane continues tracking
westward along the southern flank of a large subtropical ridge.
There is still quite a bit of spread in track guidance beyond day 2
as individual models handle the erosion of the western portion of
this ridge differently, thanks to the forecast intrusion of a weak
frontal band far northwest of the main Hawaiian Islands. GFS and
HWRF represent the northern edge of the guidance envelope, while
ECMWF lies along the southern edge. The current forecast track lies
within the southern third of the guidance envelope, closely
following FSSE and TVCX consensus through 96 hours, then bending
left at 120 hours and beyond between TVCX and ECMWF guidance. The
only noticeable change from the previous track is a slight bump to
the right beyond day 4 to account for an overall guidance envelope
shift to the right at days 4 and 5. The NOAA G-IV aircraft has
completed its initial synoptic sweep around Lane and the main
Hawaiian Islands, and the NOAA P-3 aircraft is about to start its
mission as of this writing. Air Force Reserve WC-130J aircraft will
begin their sampling missions through Lane this evening. The
valuable data collected during these missions will be used to
better initialize the guidance models and, hopefully, reduce the
guidance envelope spread.

The intensity forecast follows the logic of the previous one, only
with a slightly lower initial intensity. Lane will remain over
27-28 degree C waters through the forecast period, with 10 to 20 kt
of vertical shear through most of its track, at least according to
the ECMWF-derived SHIPS run. Gradual weakening is forecast through
the forecast period, closely following the shape of the DSHIP and
FSSE intensity curves but staying above the IVCN intensity curve.

Lane is forecast to pass south of the main Hawaiian Islands
Wednesday and Thursday, potentially causing local impacts as it
tracks west-northwestward. Interests in these islands should watch
the progress of Lane closely, since long-range track and intensity
forecast errors can be large.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 13.8N 145.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 14.1N 147.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 14.4N 149.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 14.6N 151.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 14.9N 152.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 15.6N 156.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 17.0N 159.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 25/0000Z 19.1N 161.8W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Powell

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA42 PHFO 200256 RRA
TCDCP2

HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
500 PM HST SUN AUG 19 2018

LANE'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE LATE THIS
MORNING. THE MAIN FEATURES INCLUDE A MURKY CLOUD-FILLED EYE
SURROUNDED BY A SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE RING. OUTFLOW IS BEST TO THE
NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST, BUT REMAINS SOMEWHAT CONSTRICTED ELSEWHERE
IN THE FACE OF 17 KT OF UW-CIMSS-DERIVED SOUTHWEST VERTICAL SHEAR.
THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS, -75 TO -80 DEGREES C, ARE WITHIN THE NORTH
QUADRANT OF THE CONVECTIVE RING. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 5.0/90 KT (SAB) TO 6.0/115 KT
(PHFO). PTWC ESTIMATED 5.5/102 KT WHILE UW-CIMSS ESTIMATED 5.0/90
KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS PACKAGE IS SET AT 105 KT,
REPRESENTING A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT DOWNWARD USING A BLEND OF
ESTIMATES.

INITIAL MOTION IS A STEADY 280/12 KT AS LANE CONTINUES TRACKING
WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN TRACK GUIDANCE BEYOND DAY 2
AS INDIVIDUAL MODELS HANDLE THE EROSION OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THIS RIDGE DIFFERENTLY, THANKS TO THE FORECAST INTRUSION OF A WEAK
FRONTAL BAND FAR NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. GFS AND
HWRF REPRESENT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, WHILE
ECMWF LIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK LIES
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, CLOSELY
FOLLOWING FSSE AND TVCX CONSENSUS THROUGH 96 HOURS, THEN BENDING
LEFT AT 120 HOURS AND BEYOND BETWEEN TVCX AND ECMWF GUIDANCE. THE
ONLY NOTICEABLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK IS A SLIGHT BUMP TO

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA42 PHFO 200256
TCDCP2

Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 21
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
500 PM HST Sun Aug 19 2018

Lane's satellite presentation has not changed much since late this
morning. The main features include a murky cloud-filled eye
surrounded by a symmetric convective ring. Outflow is best to the
north through northeast, but remains somewhat constricted elsewhere
in the face of 17 kt of UW-CIMSS-derived southwest vertical shear.
The coldest cloud tops, -75 to -80 degrees C, are within the north
quadrant of the convective ring. The latest subjective Dvorak
intensity estimates range from 5.0/90 kt (SAB) to 6.0/115 kt
(PHFO). PTWC estimated 5.5/102 kt while UW-CIMSS estimated 5.0/90
kt. The initial intensity for this package is set at 105 kt,
representing a slight adjustment downward using a blend of
estimates.

Initial motion is a steady 280/12 kt as Lane continues tracking
westward along the southern flank of a large subtropical ridge.
There is still quite a bit of spread in track guidance beyond day 2
as individual models handle the erosion of the western portion of
this ridge differently, thanks to the forecast intrusion of a weak
frontal band far northwest of the main Hawaiian Islands. GFS and
HWRF represent the northern edge of the guidance envelope, while
ECMWF lies along the southern edge. The current forecast track lies
within the southern third of the guidance envelope, closely
following FSSE and TVCX consensus through 96 hours, then bending
left at 120 hours and beyond between TVCX and ECMWF guidance. The
only noticeable change from the previous track is a slight bump to
the right beyond day 4 to account for an overall guidance envelope
shift to the right at days 4 and 5. The NOAA G-IV aircraft has
completed its initial synoptic sweep around Lane and the main
Hawaiian Islands, and the NOAA P-3 aircraft is about to start its
mission as of this writing. Air Force Reserve WC-130J aircraft will
begin their sampling missions through Lane this evening. The
valuable data collected during these missions will be used to
better initialize the guidance models and, hopefully, reduce the
guidance envelope spread.

The intensity forecast follows the logic of the previous one, only
with a slightly lower initial intensity. Lane will remain over
27-28 degree C waters through the forecast period, with 10 to 20 kt
of vertical shear through most of its track, at least according to
the ECMWF-derived SHIPS run. Gradual weakening is forecast through
the forecast period, closely following the shape of the DSHIP and
FSSE intensity curves but staying above the IVCN intensity curve.

Lane is forecast to pass south of the main Hawaiian Islands
Wednesday and Thursday, potentially causing local impacts as it
tracks west-northwestward. Interests in these islands should watch
the progress of Lane closely, since long-range track and intensity
forecast errors can be large.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 13.8N 145.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 14.1N 147.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 14.4N 149.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 14.6N 151.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 14.9N 152.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 15.6N 156.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 17.0N 159.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 25/0000Z 19.1N 161.8W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Powell

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA42 PHFO 192109 RRA
TCDCP2

HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1100 AM HST SUN AUG 19 2018

AFTER LACKING A DISTINCT EYE THROUGH THE NIGHT, LANE REGAINED THIS
FEATURE NEAR SUNRISE. HOWEVER, AFTER A FEW HOURS THE EYE BEGAN TO
CLOUD OVER ONCE AGAIN. NEVERTHELESS, THIS SYSTEM REMAINS
WELL-ORGANIZED THIS MORNING, WITH A CONCENTRIC CONVECTIVE RING AND
GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST. OUTFLOW ELSEWHERE IS A
BIT RESTRICTED, A RESULT OF THE 17 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR NOTED BY
UW-CIMSS. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE
FROM 6.5/127 KT (PHFO), TO 5.0/90 KT (SAB). PTWC ESTIMATED 6.0/115
KT, WHILE ADT FROM UW-CIMSS WAS 109 KT. THIS IS QUITE A WIDE RANGE,
POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF THE OVERNIGHT LOSS AND SUDDEN REAPPEARANCE OF
A DISTINCT EYE RIGHT AROUND ANALYSIS TIME. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET
AT 110 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY, REPRESENTING A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT UPWARD
USING A BLEND OF ESTIMATES.

INITIAL MOTION IS 280/12 KT AS LANE CONTINUES TRACKING JUST A SHADE
NORTH OF DUE WEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A LARGE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FAR NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AS IT WEAKENS, ERODING THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE FROM DAY 3 AND BEYOND. THE SPREAD IN TRACK
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE RATHER WIDE BEYOND 48 HOURS AS EACH MODEL
HANDLES THIS RIDGE EROSION DIFFERENTLY. HOWEVER, CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BE MOST HELPFUL. THE FORECAST TRACK WAS NUDGED
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD THROUGH 36 HOURS, DUE TO INITIAL MOTION, BUT
REMAINS QUITE CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FROM 48 THROUGH 96 HOURS,

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA42 PHFO 192109
TCDCP2

Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 20
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1100 AM HST Sun Aug 19 2018

After lacking a distinct eye through the night, Lane regained this
feature near sunrise. However, after a few hours the eye began to
cloud over once again. Nevertheless, this system remains
well-organized this morning, with a concentric convective ring and
good outflow to the north through northeast. Outflow elsewhere is a
bit restricted, a result of the 17 kt of vertical shear noted by
UW-CIMSS. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates range
from 6.5/127 kt (PHFO), to 5.0/90 kt (SAB). PTWC estimated 6.0/115
kt, while ADT from UW-CIMSS was 109 kt. This is quite a wide range,
possibly the result of the overnight loss and sudden reappearance of
a distinct eye right around analysis time. Initial intensity is set
at 110 kt for this advisory, representing a slight adjustment upward
using a blend of estimates.

Initial motion is 280/12 kt as Lane continues tracking just a shade
north of due west along the southern flank of a large subtropical
ridge. A frontal boundary far northwest of the main Hawaiian Islands
is forecast to move southeast as it weakens, eroding the western
portion of the ridge from day 3 and beyond. The spread in track
guidance continues to be rather wide beyond 48 hours as each model
handles this ridge erosion differently. However, consensus guidance
continues to be most helpful. The forecast track was nudged
slightly northward through 36 hours, due to initial motion, but
remains quite close to the previous track from 48 through 96 hours,
following TVCX consensus. Forecast points from 120 hours and beyond
lie between CMCI and ECMWF solutions. GFS remains near the right
edge of the guidance envelope, affecting all associated ensembles.
A NOAA G-IV aircraft plans to do a synoptic sampling in the
environment around the Hawaiian Islands and Lane later today. The
valuable data collected during this mission will be available to
better initialize the forecast models.

The intensity forecast follows the logic of the previous one, only
with a slightly higher initial intensity. Lane will remain over
27-28 degree C waters through the forecast period, with 10 to 20 kt
of vertical shear through most of its track, at least according to
the ECMWF-derived SHIPS run. Gradual weakening is forecast through
the forecast period, closely following FSSE and SHIPS. The
weakening curve lies just above IVCN consensus. Note that the latest
CIRA analysis of Ocean Heat Content shows a local maximum along the
track starting around day 3. If this verifies, Lane may remain
stronger than anticipated beyond day 3.

Lane is forecast to pass south of the main Hawaiian Islands
Wednesday and Thursday, potentially causing local impacts as it
tracks west-northwestward. Interests in these islands should watch
the progress of Lane closely, since long-range track and intensity
forecast errors can be large.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 13.5N 144.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 13.8N 146.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 14.1N 148.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 14.3N 150.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 14.6N 152.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 15.2N 155.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 16.5N 158.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 24/1800Z 18.2N 161.4W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Powell

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA42 PHFO 191508 RRA
TCDCP2

HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
500 AM HST SUN AUG 19 2018

LANE HAS NOT HAD A DISTINCT EYE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, A SMALL WARM SPOT APPEARS TO BE
INDICATIVE OF AN EYE TRYING TO FORM. IN ADDITION, A 1253Z SSMI
MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS A SMALL EYE COMPLETELY SURROUNDED BY DEEP
CONVECTION, WHICH SUGGESTS THAT LANE REMAINS RATHER WELL ORGANIZED
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS DESPITE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OF NEAR 20 KNOTS ACCORDING TO THE LATEST UW-CIMSS OUTPUT,
WHILE IT IS CLOSE TO 10 KNOTS BASED ON THE MOST RECENT SHIPS
GUIDANCE. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
T5.0/90 KNOTS FROM SAB, T6.0/115 KNOTS FROM JTWC AND T6.5/127
KNOTS FROM PHFO. THE MOST RECENT ADT FROM UW-CIMSS IS NOW
T5.4/100 KNOTS. BASED ON A BLEND OF THIS GUIDANCE, THE LATEST
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY TO 105 KNOTS
FOR THIS ADVISORY.

LANE'S INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 280/13 KT. THE LATEST
FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK DURING THE 12-36 HOUR AND 96-120 HOUR TIME PERIODS. A
LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF LANE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE SAME GENERAL TRACK DURING THE NEXT 12
HOURS, BUT AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED DURING THE 24-72 HOUR
TIME PERIODS. A SHIFT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL LIKELY BEGIN
BEYOND 72 HOURS AS LANE APPROACHES THE WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE. THE
FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE WILL
ERODE DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING DOWN NORTHWEST OF THE

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA42 PHFO 191508
TCDCP2

Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 19
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
500 AM HST Sun Aug 19 2018

Lane has not had a distinct eye in satellite imagery since late
Saturday afternoon. However, a small warm spot appears to be
indicative of an eye trying to form. In addition, a 1253z SSMI
microwave pass shows a small eye completely surrounded by deep
convection, which suggests that Lane remains rather well organized
early this morning. This is despite southwesterly vertical wind
shear of near 20 knots according to the latest UW-CIMSS output,
while it is close to 10 knots based on the most recent SHIPS
guidance. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates are
T5.0/90 knots from SAB, T6.0/115 knots from JTWC and T6.5/127
knots from PHFO. The most recent ADT from UW-CIMSS is now
T5.4/100 knots. Based on a blend of this guidance, the latest
initial intensity has been adjusted downward slightly to 105 knots
for this advisory.

Lane's initial motion for this advisory is 280/13 kt. The latest
forecast track has been adjusted slightly to the right of the
previous track during the 12-36 hour and 96-120 hour time periods. A
large subtropical ridge to the north of Lane will continue to keep
the system moving along the same general track during the next 12
hours, but at a slightly slower forward speed during the 24-72 hour
time periods. A shift toward the west-northwest will likely begin
beyond 72 hours as Lane approaches the western end of the ridge. The
forecast models are showing this western end of the ridge will
erode due to an upper-level trough digging down northwest of the
Hawaiian Islands. Due to increasing uncertainty about the strength
of the ridge, the model spread has increased dramatically tonight.
The changes in the current forecast track were based on nudging
toward the latest HWRF and HCCA guidance, as well as the GFEX and
TVCN consensus models. A NOAA G-IV aircraft plans to do a synoptic
sampling in the environment around the Hawaiian Islands and Lane
later today. The valuable data collected during this mission will be
available to better initialize the forecast models.

The latest intensity forecast has been nudged up slightly,
especially during days 4 and 5. This forecast closely follows the
IVCN, which shows gradual weakening from 48 through 120 hours. The
ocean water temperatures will remain in the 27-28 degrees C
range along the forecast track, but there may still be 10 to 15
knots of vertical wind shear through most of the forecast period.
Note that the latest CIRA analysis of Ocean Heat Content shows a
local maximum along the track between 72 and 96 hours. If this
verifies, this may allow Lane to remain stronger than anticipated
beyond day 3.

Lane is forecast to pass south of the main Hawaiian Islands
Wednesday and Thursday, potentially causing local impacts as it
tracks west-northwestward. Interests in these islands should watch
the progress of Lane closely, since long-range track and intensity
forecast errors can be large.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 13.2N 143.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 13.5N 145.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 13.8N 147.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 14.0N 148.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 14.2N 150.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 14.8N 154.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 16.0N 157.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 24/1200Z 17.6N 160.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Houston

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA42 PHFO 190910 RRA
TCDCP2

HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1100 PM HST SAT AUG 18 2018

LANE COMPLETELY LOST ITS EYE IN THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY,
WHICH WAS AVAILABLE EARLIER THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION, MICROWAVE
PASSES FROM SSMIS AT 0339Z AND AMSU AT 0644Z INDICATED THE EYEWALL
APPEARED TO BE OPEN ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ESTIMATES ARE 18 KNOTS FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST SHIPS AND UW-CIMSS. THIS IS LIKELY A MAJOR CULPRIT IN
THE WEAKENING OF LANE. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE T5.5/102 KNOTS FROM SAB, T6.0/115 KNOTS FROM JTWC AND
T6.5/127 KNOTS FROM PHFO. THE MOST RECENT ADT FROM UW-CIMSS IS
WEAKER AT 5.7/107 KNOTS. BASED ON A BLEND OF THIS GUIDANCE, THE
LATEST INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY TO 110
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. NOTE THAT A WARM SPOT APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING
IN THE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

LANE'S INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 280/14 KT. A LARGE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LANE MOVING
ALONG THIS SAME GENERAL TRACK, BUT AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. A SHIFT BACK TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST SHOULD OCCUR FROM 96 THROUGH 120 HOURS AS LANE
APPROACHES THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE. TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS
SOME SPREAD BEYOND 72 HOURS. THE MOST RECENT FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS THROUGH 72 HOURS, WITH A SHIFT TO THE RIGHT
ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THESE CHANGES IN TRACK WERE BASED ON NUDGING TOWARD
HWRF AND HSSE, AS WELL AS THE GFEX AND TVCN CONSENSUS.

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA42 PHFO 190910
TCDCP2

Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 18
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1100 PM HST Sat Aug 18 2018

Lane completely lost its eye in the last visible satellite imagery,
which was available earlier this evening. In addition, microwave
passes from SSMIS at 0339z and AMSU at 0644z indicated the eyewall
appeared to be open on the southwestern side of the system. Vertical
wind shear estimates are 18 knots from the west-southwest according
to the latest SHIPS and UW-CIMSS. This is likely a major culprit in
the weakening of Lane. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates are T5.5/102 knots from SAB, T6.0/115 knots from JTWC and
T6.5/127 knots from PHFO. The most recent ADT from UW-CIMSS is
weaker at 5.7/107 knots. Based on a blend of this guidance, the
latest initial intensity has been adjusted downward slightly to 110
kt for this advisory. Note that a warm spot appears to be developing
in the infrared satellite imagery during the past couple of hours.

Lane's initial motion for this advisory is 280/14 kt. A large
subtropical ridge to the north will continue to keep Lane moving
along this same general track, but at a slightly slower forward
speed during the next two days. A shift back toward the
west-northwest should occur from 96 through 120 hours as Lane
approaches the western portion of the ridge. Track guidance shows
some spread beyond 72 hours. The most recent forecast is very
similar to the previous through 72 hours, with a shift to the right
on days 4 and 5. These changes in track were based on nudging toward
HWRF and HSSE, as well as the GFEX and TVCN consensus.

The intensity forecast closely follows ICON consensus guidance,
depicting a gradual weakening through 120 hours. SSTs will remain
in the 27 to 28 degrees C range, but with 10 to 15 knots of vertical
wind shear expected through the forecast period, a forecast for
gradual weakening seems realistic at this time. The latest intensity
forecast is close to the previous, except that Lane is kept slightly
stronger on days 4 and 5.

Lane is forecast to pass south of the main Hawaiian Islands
Wednesday and Thursday, potentially causing local impacts as it
tracks west northwestward. Interests in those islands should watch
the progress of Lane closely, since long-range forecast track and
intensity errors can be large.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 12.9N 142.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 13.2N 143.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 13.5N 146.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 13.7N 147.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 13.9N 149.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 22/0600Z 14.3N 153.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 23/0600Z 15.2N 156.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 24/0600Z 17.0N 160.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Houston

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA32 PHFO 240247 RRA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
500 PM HST THU AUG 23 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 157.9W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE BIG ISLAND HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. OAHU
.. MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI, LANAI, MOLOKAI AND
KAHOOLAWE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE LANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA32 PHFO 240247
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Advisory Number 38
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
500 PM HST Thu Aug 23 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 157.9W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning for the Big Island has been changed to a
Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Oahu
* Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Hawaii County

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Kauai County...including the islands of Kauai and Niihau

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should monitor
the progress of Hurricane Lane.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lane was located
by radar and satellite imagery near latitude 17.8 North, longitude
157.9 West. Lane is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9
km/h). A slow general northward motion is expected to continue
through Friday. A turn toward the west is expected Saturday and
Sunday, with and increase in forward speed. On the forecast track,
the center of Lane will move over, or dangerously close to portions
of the main Hawaiian islands tonight and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lane is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast during the next
48 hours, but Lane is expected to remain a hurricane as it draws
closer to the islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb (28.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on portions of the Big
Island tonight and Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to
begin over portions of Maui County tonight, with hurricane
conditions expected in some areas Friday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to begin on Oahu late tonight, with
hurricane conditions expected Friday into Friday night. Tropical
storm or hurricane conditions are possible on Kauai on Saturday.

RAINFALL: Rain bands will continue to overspread the Hawaiian
Islands well ahead of Lane. Excessive rainfall associated with this
slow moving hurricane will continue to impact the Hawaiian Islands
into the weekend, leading to significant and life-threatening flash
flooding and landslides. Lane is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 10 to 20 inches, with localized amounts in excess
of 30 inches over portions of the Hawaiian Islands. Over two feet
of rain has already fallen at a couple of locations on the windward
side of the Big Island.

SURF: As Lane is slow-moving, large swells generated by the
hurricane will severely impact the Hawaiian Islands over the next
couple of days. These swells will produce very large and damaging
surf along exposed west and south facing shorelines. A prolonged
period of high surf will likely lead to significant coastal erosion.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet
above normal tide levels along south and west facing shores near
the center of Lane. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM HST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster R Ballard


2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA32 PHFO 240002 RRA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LANE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 37A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
200 PM HST THU AUG 23 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 157.8W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.14 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. OAHU
. MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI, LANAI, MOLOKAI AND
KAHOOLAWE
. HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS IN THE THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE LANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM HST (0000 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LANE WAS LOCATED
BY RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA32 PHFO 240002
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Intermediate Advisory Number 37A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
200 PM HST Thu Aug 23 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 157.8W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.14 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Oahu
* Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe
* Hawaii County

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Kauai County...including the islands of Kauai and Niihau

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests in the the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should monitor
the progress of Hurricane Lane.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM HST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lane was located
by radar and satellite imagery near latitude 17.5 North, longitude
157.8 West. Lane is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (10
km/h). A slow general northward motion is expected to continue
through Friday. A turn toward the west is expected Saturday and
Sunday, with some increase in forward speed. On the forecast track,
the center of Lane will move over, or dangerously close to portions
of the main Hawaiian islands later today through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lane is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48
hours, but Lane is expected to remain a hurricane as it draws closer
to the islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on portions of the Big
Island today, with hurricane conditions expected in some areas by
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin over
portions of Maui County later today, with hurricane conditions
expected in some areas by Friday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin on Oahu late tonight, with hurricane conditions
expected Friday into Friday night. Tropical storm or hurricane
conditions are possible on Kauai on Saturday.

RAINFALL: Rain bands will continue to overspread the Hawaiian
Islands well ahead of Lane. Excessive rainfall associated with this
slow moving hurricane will continue to impact the Hawaiian Islands
into the weekend, leading to significant and life-threatening flash
flooding and landslides. Lane is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 10 to 20 inches, with localized amounts in excess
of 30 inches over the Hawaiian Islands. Nearly 20 inches of rain has
already fallen on portions of the Big Island.

SURF: As Lane is slow-moving, large swells generated by the
hurricane will severely impact the Hawaiian Islands over the next
couple of days. These swells will produce very large and damaging
surf along exposed west and south facing shorelines. A prolonged
period of high surf will likely lead to significant coastal erosion.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet
above normal tide levels along south and west facing shores near
the center of Lane. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster R Ballard


2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA32 PHFO 232043 RRA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1100 AM HST THU AUG 23 2018

...EYE OF LANE PASSES OVER NOAA BUOY 51002 AS THE DANGEROUS
HURRICANE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MARCH TOWARD THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 157.5W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. OAHU
. MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI, LANAI, MOLOKAI AND
KAHOOLAWE
. HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS IN THE THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE LANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LANE WAS LOCATED

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA32 PHFO 232043
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Advisory Number 37
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1100 AM HST Thu Aug 23 2018

...EYE OF LANE PASSES OVER NOAA BUOY 51002 AS THE DANGEROUS
HURRICANE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MARCH TOWARD THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 157.5W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Oahu
* Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe
* Hawaii County

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Kauai County...including the islands of Kauai and Niihau

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests in the the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should monitor
the progress of Hurricane Lane.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lane was located
near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 157.5 West. Lane is moving
toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slow northward motion
is expected to begin today. A turn toward the west is expected
Saturday and Sunday, with an increase in forward speed. On the
forecast track, the center of Lane will move over, or dangerously
close to portions of the main Hawaiian islands later today through
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lane remains a powerful category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast
during the next 48 hours, but Lane is expected to remain a
hurricane as it draws closer to the islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

NOAA Buoy 51002 located about 250 miles southwest of the Big Island
reported a peak wind of 107 mph (172 km/h) as the northwest eyewall
of Lane passed over. The buoy is now reporting light winds in the
eye of the hurricane.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb (28.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on portions of the Big
Island today, with hurricane conditions expected in some areas by
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin over
portions of Maui County later today, with hurricane conditions
expected in some areas by Friday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin on Oahu late tonight, with hurricane conditions
expected Friday into Friday night. Tropical storm or hurricane
conditions are possible on Kauai on Saturday.

RAINFALL: Rain bands will continue to overspread the Hawaiian
Islands well ahead of Lane. Excessive rainfall associated with this
slow moving hurricane will continue to impact the Hawaiian Islands
into the weekend, leading to significant and life-threatening flash
flooding and landslides. Lane is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 10 to 20 inches, with localized amounts in excess
of 30 inches over the Hawaiian Islands. Nearly 20 inches of rain has
already fallen on portions of the Big Island.

SURF: As Lane is slow-moving, large swells generated by the
hurricane will severely impact the Hawaiian Islands over the next
couple of days. These swells will produce very large and damaging
surf along exposed west and south facing shorelines. A prolonged
period of high surf will likely lead to significant coastal erosion.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet
above normal tide levels along south and west facing shores near
the center of Lane. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM HST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster R Ballard


2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA32 PHFO 231758 RRA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LANE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 36A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
800 AM HST THU AUG 23 2018

...LANE CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WITH
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ALREADY OCCURRING IN SOME AREAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 157.6W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. OAHU
.. MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI, LANAI, MOLOKAI AND
KAHOOLAWE
.. HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS,
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS IN THE THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA32 PHFO 231758
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Intermediate Advisory Number 36A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
800 AM HST Thu Aug 23 2018

...LANE CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WITH
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ALREADY OCCURRING IN SOME AREAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 157.6W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Oahu
* Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe
* Hawaii County

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Kauai County...including the islands of Kauai and Niihau

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult
or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests in the the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should monitor
the progress of Hurricane Lane.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM HST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lane was located
by satellite and radar imagery near near latitude 17.1 North,
longitude 157.6 West. Lane is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph
(11 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest and little change in
forward speed is expected today. A turn toward the north is
anticipated tonight and Friday, as Lane's forward motion slows. A
turn toward the west is expected on Saturday and Sunday, with an
increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Lane
will move very close to or over the portions of the main Hawaiian
islands later today through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lane is a powerful category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Steady weakening is forecast during the next
couple of days. Lane is expected to remain a hurricane as it draws
closer to the islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km). NOAA buoy 51002 located about 250 miles southwest of
the Big Island recently reported sustained winds of 71 mph (114
km/h) and a gust of 94 mph (151 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb (28.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on portions of the Big
Island beginning later this morning, with hurricane conditions
expected in some areas by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin over portions of Maui County later today,
with hurricane conditions expected in some areas by Friday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on Oahu late
tonight, with hurricane conditions expected Friday into Friday
night.

RAINFALL: Rain bands from Hurricane Lane will continue to overspread
the Hawaiian Islands. Excessive rainfall associated with Lane will
impact the Hawaiian Islands into the weekend, leading to significant
and life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Lane is expected
to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches, with
localized amounts in excess of 30 inches over the Hawaiian Islands.
Over 12 inches of rain has already fallen on portions of the Big
Island.

SURF: As Lane is slow-moving, large swells generated by the
hurricane will severely impact the Hawaiian Islands over the next
couple of days. These swells will produce very large and damaging
surf along exposed west and south facing shorelines. A prolonged
period of high surf will likely lead to significant coastal erosion.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet
above normal tide levels along south and west facing shores near
the center of Lane. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster R Ballard

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA32 PHFO 231445 RRA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
500 AM HST THU AUG 23 2018

...LANE CREEPING CLOSER TO HAWAII...
....TORRENTIAL RAIN SOAKING THE BIG ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 157.4W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. OAHU
.. MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI, LANAI, MOLOKAI AND
KAHOOLAWE
.. HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS,
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS IN THE THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA32 PHFO 231445
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Advisory Number 36
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
500 AM HST Thu Aug 23 2018

...LANE CREEPING CLOSER TO HAWAII...
...TORRENTIAL RAIN SOAKING THE BIG ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 157.4W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Oahu
* Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe
* Hawaii County

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Kauai County...including the islands of Kauai and Niihau

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult
or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests in the the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should monitor
the progress of Hurricane Lane.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lane was located
near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 157.4 West. Lane is moving
toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest and little change in forward speed is expected
today. A turn toward the north is anticipated tonight and Friday, as
Lane's forward motion slows. A turn toward the west is expected on
Saturday and Sunday, with an increase in forward speed. On the
forecast track, the center of Lane will move very close to or over
the portions of the main Hawaiian islands later today through
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lane is a powerful category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Steady weakening is forecast during the next
couple of days. Lane is expected to remain a hurricane as it draws
closer to the islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km). NOAA buoy 51002 located about 250 miles southwest of the
Big Island recently reported sustained winds of 50 mph (80 km/h)
and a gust of 64 mph (104 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb (28.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on portions of the Big
Island beginning later this morning, with hurricane conditions
expected in some areas by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin over portions of Maui County later today,
with hurricane conditions expected in some areas by Friday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on Oahu late
tonight, with hurricane conditions expected Friday into Friday
night.

RAINFALL: Rain bands from Hurricane Lane will continue to overspread
the Hawaiian Islands. Excessive rainfall associated with Lane will
impact the Hawaiian Islands into the weekend, leading to significant
and life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Lane is expected
to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches, with
localized amounts in excess of 30 inches over the Hawaiian Islands.
Over 12 inches of rain has already fallen on portions of the Big
Island.

SURF: As Lane is slow-moving, large swells generated by the
hurricane will severely impact the Hawaiian Islands over the next
couple of days. These swells will produce very large and damaging
surf along exposed west and south facing shorelines. A prolonged
period of high surf will likely lead to significant coastal erosion.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet
above normal tide levels along south and west facing shores near
the center of Lane. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM HST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Birchard


2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA32 PHFO 231156 RRA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LANE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 35A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
200 AM HST THU AUG 23 2018

...LANE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY WHILE TRACKING TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 157.3W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.02 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. OAHU
.. MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI, LANAI, MOLOKAI AND
KAHOOLAWE
.. HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS,
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS IN THE THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA32 PHFO 231156
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Intermediate Advisory Number 35A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
200 AM HST Thu Aug 23 2018

...LANE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY WHILE TRACKING TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 157.3W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.02 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Oahu
* Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe
* Hawaii County

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Kauai County...including the islands of Kauai and Niihau

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult
or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests in the the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should monitor
the progress of Hurricane Lane.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM HST (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lane was located by
satellite and radar near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 157.3 West.
Lane is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). This
general motion is expected to continue today, with a gradual turn
toward the north-northwest. On Friday, a turn toward the north is
anticipated as Lane's forward motion slows even more. A turn back
toward the west is expected on Saturday. On the forecast track, the
center of Lane will move very close to or over the main Hawaiian
Islands later today through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lane is a powerful category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast during the next
day or so, with more significant weakening thereafter. Lane is
expected to remain a hurricane as it approaches the islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb (28.02 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on portions of the Big
Island beginning later this morning, with hurricane conditions
expected in some areas by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin over portions of Maui county later today,
with hurricane conditions expected in some areas by Friday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on Oahu late
tonight, with hurricane conditions expected Friday into Friday
night.

RAINFALL: Rain bands from Hurricane Lane will continue to overspread
the Hawaiian Islands. Excessive rainfall associated with Lane will
impact the Hawaiian Islands into the weekend, leading to significant
and life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Lane is expected
to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches, with
localized amounts in excess of 30 inches over the Hawaiian Islands.

SURF: As Lane is slow-moving, large swells generated by Lane will
severely impact the Hawaiian Islands over the next couple of days.
These swells will produce very large and damaging surf along exposed
west and south facing shorelines. A prolonged period of high surf
will likely lead to significant coastal erosion.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet
above normal tide levels along south and west facing shores near
the center of Lane. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Birchard


2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA32 PHFO 230918 RRA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN...CORRECTED
HURRICANE LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1100 PM HST WED AUG 22 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE TRACKING TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 156.9W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. OAHU
. MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI, LANAI, MOLOKAI AND
KAHOOLAWE
. HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS,
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS IN THE THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA32 PHFO 230918 CCB
TCPCP2

BULLETIN...CORRECTED
Hurricane Lane Advisory Number 35
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1100 PM HST Wed Aug 22 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE TRACKING TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 156.9W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Oahu
* Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe
* Hawaii County

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Kauai County...including the islands of Kauai and Niihau

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult
or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests in the the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should monitor
the progress of Hurricane Lane.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lane was located
by satellite and radar near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 156.9
West. Lane is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h).
This general motion is expected through Thursday, with a gradual
turn toward the north-northwest. On Friday, a turn toward the north
is anticipated as Lane's forward motion slows even more. A turn back
toward the west is expected on Saturday. On the forecast track, the
center of Lane will move very close to or over the main Hawaiian
Islands tomorrow through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lane is a powerful category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast during the next few
days, but Lane is expected to remain a hurricane as it approaches
the islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 939 mb (27.73 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on portions of the Big
Island beginning early Thursday morning, with hurricane conditions
expected in some areas Thursday afternoon or Thursday night.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin over portions of
Maui county on Thursday, with hurricane conditions expected in some
areas Thursday night into Friday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin on Oahu late Thursday night, with hurricane
conditions expected Friday into Friday night.

RAINFALL: Rain bands from Hurricane Lane will continue to overspread
the Hawaiian Islands tonight and Thursday. Excessive rainfall
associated with Lane will impact the Hawaiian Islands into the
weekend, leading to significant and life-threatening flash flooding
and landslides. Lane is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 20 inches, with localized amounts in excess of 30 inches
over the Hawaiian Islands.

SURF: As Lane is slow-moving, large swells generated by Lane will
severely impact the Hawaiian Islands over the next couple of days.
These swells will produce very large and damaging surf along exposed
west and south facing shorelines. A prolonged period of high surf
will likely lead to significant coastal erosion.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet
above normal tide levels along south and west facing shores near the
center of Lane. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM HST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Birchard

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA32 PHFO 230916 RRA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN...CORRECTED
HURRICANE LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1115 PM HST WED AUG 22 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE TRACKING TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 156.9W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. OAHU
.. MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI, LANAI, MOLOKAI AND
KAHOOLAWE
.. HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS,
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS IN THE THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA32 PHFO 230916 CCA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN...CORRECTED
Hurricane Lane Advisory Number 35
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1115 PM HST Wed Aug 22 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE TRACKING TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 156.9W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Oahu
* Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe
* Hawaii County

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Kauai County...including the islands of Kauai and Niihau

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult
or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests in the the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should monitor
the progress of Hurricane Lane.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lane was located
by satellite and radar near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 156.9
West. Lane is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h).
This general motion is expected through Thursday, with a gradual
turn toward the north-northwest. On Friday, a turn toward the north
is anticipated as Lane's forward motion slows even more. A turn back
toward the west is expected on Saturday. On the forecast track, the
center of Lane will move very close to or over the main Hawaiian
Islands tomorrow through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lane is a powerful category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast during the next few
days, but Lane is expected to remain a hurricane as it approaches
the islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 939 mb (27.73 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected
on portions of the Big Island beginning early Thursday morning, with
hurricane conditions expected in some areas Thursday afternoon or
Thursday night.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin over portions of
Maui county on Thursday, with hurricane conditions expected in some
areas Thursday night into Friday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin on Oahu late Thursday night, with hurricane
conditions expected Friday into Friday night.

RAINFALL: Rain bands from Hurricane Lane will continue to overspread
the Hawaiian Islands tonight and Thursday. Excessive rainfall
associated with Lane will impact the Hawaiian Islands into the
weekend, leading to significant and life-threatening flash flooding
and landslides. Lane is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 20 inches, with localized amounts in excess of 30 inches
over the Hawaiian Islands.

SURF: As Lane is slow-moving, large swells generated by Lane will
severely impact the Hawaiian Islands over the next couple of days.
These swells will produce very large and damaging surf along exposed
west and south facing shorelines. A prolonged period of high surf
will likely lead to significant coastal erosion.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet
above normal tide levels along south and west facing shores near the
center of Lane. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM HST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$ Forecaster Birchard

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA32 PHFO 230839 RRA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1100 PM HST WED AUG 22 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE TRACKING TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 156.9W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. OAHU
. MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI, LANAI, MOLOKAI AND
KAHOOLAWE
. HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS,
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS IN THE THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA32 PHFO 230839
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Advisory Number 35
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1100 PM HST Wed Aug 22 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE TRACKING TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 156.9W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Oahu
* Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe
* Hawaii County

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Kauai County...including the islands of Kauai and Niihau

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult
or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests in the the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should monitor
the progress of Hurricane Lane.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lane was located
by satellite and radar near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 156.9
West. Lane is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h).
This general motion is expected through Thursday, with a gradual
turn toward the northwest. On Friday, a turn toward the north is
anticipated as Lane's forward motion slows even more. A turn back
toward the west is expected on Saturday. On the forecast track, the
center of Lane will move very close to or over the main Hawaiian
Islands tomorrow through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 145 mph (230 km/h) with
higher gusts. Lane is a powerful category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast
during the next few days, but Lane is expected to remain a hurricane
as it approaches the islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 939 mb (27.73 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on portions of the Big
Island beginning early Thursday morning, with hurricane conditions
expected in some areas Thursday afternoon or Thursday night.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin over portions of
Maui county on Thursday, with hurricane conditions expected in some
areas Thursday night into Friday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin on Oahu late Thursday night, with hurricane
conditions expected Friday into Friday night.

RAINFALL: Rain bands from Hurricane Lane will continue to overspread
the Hawaiian Islands tonight and Thursday. Excessive rainfall
associated with Lane will impact the Hawaiian Islands into the
weekend, leading to significant and life-threatening flash flooding
and landslides. Lane is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 20 inches, with localized amounts in excess of 30 inches
over the Hawaiian Islands.

SURF: As Lane is slow-moving, large swells generated by Lane will
severely impact the Hawaiian Islands over the next couple of days.
These swells will produce very large and damaging surf along exposed
west and south facing shorelines. A prolonged period of high surf
will likely lead to significant coastal erosion.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet
above normal tide levels along south and west facing shores near
the center of Lane. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM HST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Birchard


2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA32 PHFO 230558 RRA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LANE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 34A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
800 PM HST WED AUG 22 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE TRACKING NORTHWEST AND ON COURSE TO
PASS VERY CLOSE TO THE ISLANDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM HST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 156.7W
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM S OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. OAHU
. MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI, LANAI, MOLOKAI AND
KAHOOLAWE
. HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS,
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA32 PHFO 230558
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Intermediate Advisory Number 34A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
800 PM HST Wed Aug 22 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE TRACKING NORTHWEST AND ON COURSE TO
PASS VERY CLOSE TO THE ISLANDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM HST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 156.7W
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM S OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Oahu
* Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe
* Hawaii County

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Kauai County...including the islands of Kauai and Niihau

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult
or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests in the the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should monitor
the progress of Hurricane Lane.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM HST (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lane was located near
latitude 16.0 North, longitude 156.7 West. Lane is moving toward
the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). This motion is expected to
continue tonight, with a turn toward the north and a slower forward
motion expected on Friday. A turn back toward the west is expected
on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Lane will move
very close to or over the main Hawaiian Islands tomorrow through
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 145 mph (230 km/h) with
higher gusts. Lane is a powerful category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast
during the next few days, but Lane is expected to remain a hurricane
as it approaches the islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 939 mb (27.73 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on portions of the Big
Island beginning early Thursday morning, with hurricane conditions
expected in some areas Thursday afternoon or Thursday night.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin over portions of
Maui county on Thursday, with hurricane conditions expected in some
areas Thursday night into Friday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin on Oahu late Thursday night, with hurricane
conditions expected Friday into Friday night.

RAINFALL: Rain bands from Hurricane Lane will continue to gradually
overspread the Hawaiian Islands tonight and Thursday. Excessive
rainfall associated with Lane is expected to affect portions of the
Hawaiian Islands from late today into the weekend. This could lead
to major flash flooding and landslides. Lane is expected to produce
total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with localized amounts
in excess of 20 inches over the Hawaiian Islands.

SURF: As Lane is slow-moving, large swells generated by Lane will
severely impact the Hawaiian Islands over the next couple of days.
These swells will produce very large and likely damaging
surf along exposed west and south facing shorelines.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet
above normal tide levels along south and west facing shores near
the center of Lane. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Birchard


2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA32 PHFO 230249 RRA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
500 PM HST WED AUG 22 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE TRACKING NORTHWEST AND ON COURSE TO
PASS VERY CLOSE TO THE ISLANDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 156.5W
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM S OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
ISLAND OF OAHU.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. OAHU
. MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI, LANAI, MOLOKAI AND
KAHOOLAWE
. HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS,
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA32 PHFO 230249
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Advisory Number 34
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
500 PM HST Wed Aug 22 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE TRACKING NORTHWEST AND ON COURSE TO
PASS VERY CLOSE TO THE ISLANDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 156.5W
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM S OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch has been changed to a Hurricane Warning for the
island of Oahu.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Oahu
* Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe
* Hawaii County

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Kauai County...including the islands of Kauai and Niihau

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult
or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests in the the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should monitor
the progress of Hurricane Lane.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lane was located
near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 156.5 West. Lane is moving
toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This motion is
expected to continue tonight, with a turn toward the north and a
slower forward motion expected on Friday. A turn back toward the
west is expected on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of
Lane will move very close to or over the main Hawaiian Islands
Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lane is a powerful category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast during the next
few days, but Lane is expected to remain a hurricane as it
approaches the islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 939 mb (27.73 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on portions of the Big
Island beginning early Thursday morning, with hurricane conditions
expected in some areas Thursday afternoon or Thursday night.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin over portions of
Maui county on Thursday, with hurricane conditions expected in some
areas Thursday night into Friday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin on Oahu late Thursday night, with hurricane
conditions expected Friday.

RAINFALL: Rainbands from Hurricane Lane will continue to gradually
overspread the state tonight and Thursday. Excessive rainfall
associated with Lane is expected to affect portions of the Hawaiian
Islands from late today into the weekend. This could lead to major
flash flooding and landslides. Lane is expected to produce total
rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with localized amounts in
excess of 20 inches over the Hawaiian Islands.

SURF: Large swells generated by Lane will impact the Hawaiian
Islands, spreading across the island chain tonight and Thursday.
These swells will produce very large and potentially damaging surf
along exposed west, south and east facing shorelines.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet
above normal tide levels along south and west facing shores near
the center of Lane. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM HST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster R Ballard


2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA32 PHFO 230000 RRA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LANE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 33A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
200 PM HST WED AUG 22 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 156.4W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM S OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. HAWAII COUNTY
.. MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI, LANAI, MOLOKAI AND
KAHOOLAWE

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. OAHU
.. KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS,
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS IN THE THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA32 PHFO 230000
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Intermediate Advisory Number 33A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
200 PM HST Wed Aug 22 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 156.4W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM S OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Hawaii County
* Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Oahu
* Kauai County...including the islands of Kauai and Niihau

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult
or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests in the the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should monitor
the progress of Hurricane Lane.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM HST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lane was located near
latitude 15.6 North, longitude 156.4 West. Lane is moving toward the
west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A gradual turn toward the
northwest is expected today and tonight, followed by a more
northward motion on Thursday. A turn back toward the west is
expected on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Lane will
move very close to or over the main Hawaiian Islands from Thursday
through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lane is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. A steady weakening trend is forecast to begin
today, but Lane is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane as it
approaches the islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area beginning Thursday morning, with hurricane conditions
expected somewhere within the warning area on Thursday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area
beginning Thursday night, with hurricane conditions possible Friday.

RAINFALL: Rainbands from Hurricane Lane are gradually overspreading
the Big Island. Excessive rainfall associated with Lane is expected
to affect portions of the Hawaiian Islands from late today into the
weekend. This could lead to major flash flooding and landslides.
Lane is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15
inches with localized amounts in excess of 20 inches over the
Hawaiian Islands.

SURF: Large swells generated by Lane will impact the Hawaiian
Islands, spreading across the island chain today and tonight.
These swells will produce very large and potentially damaging surf
along exposed west, south and east facing shorelines.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster R Ballard


2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA32 PHFO 222048 RRA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1100 AM HST WED AUG 22 2018

...HAWAIIAN ISLANDS REMAIN VULNERABLE AS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
LANE PASSES SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 155.9W
ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM S OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. HAWAII COUNTY
.. MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI, LANAI, MOLOKAI AND
KAHOOLAWE

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. OAHU
.. KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS,
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS IN THE THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA32 PHFO 222048
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Advisory Number 33
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1100 AM HST Wed Aug 22 2018

...HAWAIIAN ISLANDS REMAIN VULNERABLE AS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
LANE PASSES SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 155.9W
ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM S OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Hawaii County
* Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Oahu
* Kauai County...including the islands of Kauai and Niihau

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult
or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests in the the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should monitor
the progress of Hurricane Lane.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lane was located
near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 155.9 West. Lane is moving
toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A gradual turn
toward the northwest is expected today followed by a more northward
motion on Thursday. A turn back toward the west is expected on
Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Lane will move very
close to or over the main Hawaiian Islands from Thursday through
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lane is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. A steady weakening trend is forecast to begin
today, but Lane is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane as it
approaches the islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 935 mb (27.61 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area beginning late tonight into early Thursday morning,
with hurricane conditions expected somewhere within the warning area
on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
Hurricane Watch area beginning Thursday into Thursday night, with
hurricane conditions possible late Thursday night into Friday.

RAINFALL: Rainbands from Hurricane Lane are moving ashore on
the Puna and Kau districts. Excessive rainfall associated with Lane
is expected to affect portions of the Hawaiian Islands from late
today into the weekend. This could lead to major flash flooding and
landslides. Lane is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 15 inches with localized amounts in excess of 20 inches over
the Hawaiian Islands.

SURF: Large swells generated by Lane will impact the Hawaiian
Islands, spreading across the island chain today and tonight.
These swells will produce very large and potentially damaging surf
along exposed west, south and east facing shorelines.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM HST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster R Ballard


2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA32 PHFO 221802 RRA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LANE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
800 AM HST WED AUG 22 2018

...HAWAIIAN ISLANDS REMAIN VULNERABLE AS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
LANE PASSES SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 155.7W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM S OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. HAWAII COUNTY
.. MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI, LANAI, MOLOKAI AND
KAHOOLAWE

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. OAHU
.. KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS,
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS IN THE THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR

2018-08-24 06:02

WTPA32 PHFO 221802
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Intermediate Advisory Number 32A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
800 AM HST Wed Aug 22 2018

...HAWAIIAN ISLANDS REMAIN VULNERABLE AS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
LANE PASSES SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 155.7W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM S OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Hawaii County
* Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Oahu
* Kauai County...including the islands of Kauai and Niihau

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult
or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests in the the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should monitor
the progress of Hurricane Lane. Additional Watches or Warnings may
be issued tonight or Wednesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM HST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lane was located
near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 155.7 West. The eyewall of
Hurricane Lane has been intermittently seen on the Naalehu
weather radar over the past few hours. Lane is moving toward the
west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this motion is expected to
become northwest later today, followed by a turn to the
north-northwest on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
Lane will move very close to or over the main Hawaiian Islands from
Thursday through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lane is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48
hours, but Lane is forecast to remain a dangerous hurricane as it
draws closer to the Hawaiian Islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 935 mb (27.61 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area beginning late tonight into early Thursday morning,
with hurricane conditions expected somewhere within the warning area
on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
Hurricane Watch area beginning Thursday into Thursday night, with
hurricane conditions possible late Thursday night into Friday.

RAINFALL: Rainbands from Hurricane Lane will begin moving ashore on
the Puna and Kau districts over the next hour or two. Excessive
rainfall associated with Lane is expected to affect portions of the
Hawaiian Islands from late today into the weekend, would could lead
to major flash flooding and landslides. Lane is expected to produce
total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with localized amounts
in excess of 20 inches over the Hawaiian Islands.

SURF: Large swells generated by Lane will impact the Hawaiian
Islands, beginning this morning on the Big Island, spreading
across the remainder of the island chain on today. These
swells will produce large and potentially damaging surf along
exposed west, south and east facing shorelines.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster R Ballard


2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA32 PHFO 221447 RRA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
500 AM HST WED AUG 22 2018

...POWERFUL HURRICANE LANE CONTINUES MOVING WEST NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 155.3W
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM S OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR...
.. MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI, LANAI, MOLOKAI AND
KAHOOLAWE

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR...
.. KAUAI

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. HAWAII COUNTY
.. MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI, LANAI, MOLOKAI AND
KAHOOLAWE

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. OAHU
.. KAUAI

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS,

2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA32 PHFO 221447
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Advisory Number 32
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
500 AM HST Wed Aug 22 2018

...POWERFUL HURRICANE LANE CONTINUES MOVING WEST NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 155.3W
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM S OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for...
* Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for...
* Kauai

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Hawaii County
* Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Oahu
* Kauai

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult
or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in the main Hawaiian Islands, and across the
Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, should continue to closely monitor
the progress of Hurricane Lane. Additional Tropical Storm or
Hurricane Watches or Warnings may be issued tonight or Wednesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lane was located
near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 155.3 West. Lane is moving
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is
expected to become northwest later today, followed by a
turn to the north-northwest on Thursday. On the forecast track, the
center of Lane will move very close to or over the main Hawaiian
Islands from Thursday through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lane is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48
hours, but Lane is forecast to remain a dangerous hurricane as it
draws closer to the Hawaiian Islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 935 mb (27.61 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the
Hurricane Warning area beginning late tonight into
early Thursday morning, with hurricane conditions expected
somewhere within the warning area on Thursday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area beginning
Thursday into Thursday night, with hurricane conditions possible
late Thursday night into Friday.

RAINFALL: Excessive rainfall associated with Lane is expected
to affect portions of the Hawaiian Islands from late today
into the weekend, leading to flash flooding and landslides. Lane is
expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with
isolated amounts greater than 20 inches over the Hawaiian Islands.

SURF: Large swells generated by Lane will impact the Hawaiian
Islands, beginning this morning on the Big Island, spreading
across the remainder of the island chain on today. These
swells will produce large and potentially damaging surf along
exposed west, south and east facing shorelines.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM HST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Powell


2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA32 PHFO 221155 RRA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LANE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
200 AM HST WED AUG 22 2018

...POWERFUL HURRICANE LANE MOVING WEST NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 155.0W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM S OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI, LANAI, MOLOKAI AND
KAHOOLAWE
.. OAHU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS,
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, AND ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR

2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA32 PHFO 221155
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Intermediate Advisory Number 31A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
200 AM HST Wed Aug 22 2018

...POWERFUL HURRICANE LANE MOVING WEST NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 155.0W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM S OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Hawaii County

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe
* Oahu

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult
or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in the main Hawaiian Islands, and across the
Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, should continue to closely monitor
the progress of Hurricane Lane. Additional Tropical Storm or
Hurricane Watches or Warnings may be issued tonight or Wednesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM HST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lane was located
near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 155.0 West. Lane is moving
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue tonight. A turn toward the northwest is
expected later today, followed by a turn to the north-northwest on
Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Lane will move very
close to or over the main Hawaiian Islands from Thursday through
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lane is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast during the next 48
hours, but Lane is forecast to remain a dangerous hurricane as it
draws closer to the Hawaiian Islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 935 mb (27.61 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the
Hurricane Warning area beginning late tonight into
early Thursday morning, with hurricane conditions expected
somewhere within the warning area on Thursday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area beginning
Thursday into Thursday night, with hurricane conditions possible
late Thursday night into Friday.

RAINFALL: Excessive rainfall associated with Lane is expected
to affect portions of the Hawaiian Islands from late today
into the weekend, leading to flash flooding and landslides. Lane is
expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with
isolated amounts greater than 20 inches over the Hawaiian Islands.

SURF: Large swells generated by Lane will impact the Hawaiian
Islands, beginning this morning on the Big Island, spreading
across the remainder of the island chain on today. These
swells will produce large and potentially damaging surf along
exposed west, south and east facing shorelines.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Powell


2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA32 PHFO 220858 RRA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1100 PM HST TUE AUG 21 2018

...POWERFUL HURRICANE LANE MOVING WEST NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 154.5W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSE OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI, LANAI, MOLOKAI AND
KAHOOLAWE
.. OAHU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS,
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, AND ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR

2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA32 PHFO 220858
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Advisory Number 31
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1100 PM HST Tue Aug 21 2018

...POWERFUL HURRICANE LANE MOVING WEST NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 154.5W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSE OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Hawaii County

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe
* Oahu

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult
or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in the main Hawaiian Islands, and across the
Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, should continue to closely monitor
the progress of Hurricane Lane. Additional Tropical Storm or
Hurricane Watches or Warnings may be issued tonight or Wednesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lane was located
near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 154.5 West. Lane is moving
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue tonight. A turn toward the northwest is
expected on Wednesday, followed by a turn to the north-northwest on
Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Lane will move very
close to or over the main Hawaiian Islands from Thursday through
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lane is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast during the next 48
hours, but Lane is forecast to remain a dangerous hurricane as it
draws closer to the Hawaiian Islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 930 mb (27.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the
Hurricane Warning area beginning late Wednesday night into
early Thursday morning, with hurricane conditions expected
somewhere within the warning area on Thursday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area beginning
Thursday into Thursday night, with hurricane conditions possible
late Thursday night into Friday.

RAINFALL: Excessive rainfall associated with Lane is expected
to affect portions of the Hawaiian Islands from late Wednesday into
the weekend, leading to flash flooding and landslides. Lane is
expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with
isolated amounts greater than 20 inches over the Hawaiian Islands.

SURF: Large swells generated by Lane will impact the Hawaiian
Islands, beginning tonight on the Big Island, spreading
across the remainder of the island chain on Wednesday. These
swells will produce large and potentially damaging surf along
exposed west, south and east facing shorelines.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM HST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Powell


2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA32 PHFO 220553 RRA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LANE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
800 PM HST TUE AUG 21 2018

...LANE STRENGTHENS TO CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM HST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 154.1W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSE OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...922 MB...27.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI, LANAI, MOLOKAI AND
KAHOOLAWE
. OAHU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS,
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, AND ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR

2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA32 PHFO 220553
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Intermediate Advisory Number 30A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
800 PM HST Tue Aug 21 2018

...LANE STRENGTHENS TO CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM HST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 154.1W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSE OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...922 MB...27.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Hawaii County

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe
* Oahu

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult
or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in the main Hawaiian Islands, and across the
Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, should continue to closely monitor
the progress of Hurricane Lane. Additional Tropical Storm or
Hurricane Watches or Warnings may be issued tonight or Wednesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM HST (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lane was located by
Air Force Reserve aircraft near latitude 14.5 North, longitude
154.1 West. Lane is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15
km/h) and this motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn toward
the northwest is expected on Wednesday, followed by a turn to the
north-northwest on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
Lane will move very close to or over the main Hawaiian Islands from
Thursday through Saturday.

Data from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Lane is now
a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but Lane is
forecast to remain a dangerous hurricane as it draws closer to the
Hawaiian Islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 922 mb (27.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the
Hurricane Warning area beginning late Wednesday night into
early Thursday morning, with hurricane conditions expected
somewhere within the warning area on Thursday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area beginning
Thursday into Thursday night, with hurricane conditions possible
late Thursday night into Friday.

RAINFALL: Excessive rainfall associated with Lane is expected
to affect portions of the Hawaiian Islands from late Wednesday into
the weekend, leading to flash flooding and landslides. Lane is
expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with
isolated amounts greater than 20 inches over the Hawaiian Islands.

SURF: Large swells generated by Lane will impact the Hawaiian
Islands, beginning tonight on the Big Island, spreading
across the remainder of the island chain on Wednesday. These
swells will produce large and potentially damaging surf along
exposed west, south and east facing shorelines.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Powell


2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA32 PHFO 220444 RRA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LANE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
630 PM HST TUE AUG 21 2018

...LANE STRENGTHENS TO CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 630 PM HST...0430 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 154.0W
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM SSE OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...922 MB...27.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI, LANAI, MOLOKAI AND
KAHOOLAWE
. OAHU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS,
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, AND ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE LANE. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM OR

2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA32 PHFO 220444
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Special Advisory Number 30
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
630 PM HST Tue Aug 21 2018

...LANE STRENGTHENS TO CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 630 PM HST...0430 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 154.0W
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM SSE OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...922 MB...27.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Hawaii County

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe
* Oahu

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult
or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in the main Hawaiian Islands, and across the
Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, should continue to closely monitor
the progress of Hurricane Lane. Additional Tropical Storm or
Hurricane Watches or Warnings may be issued tonight or Wednesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 630 PM HST (0430 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lane was located by
NOAA aircraft near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 154.0 West. Lane
is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn toward the northwest
is expected on Wednesday, followed by a turn to the north-northwest
on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Lane will move
very close to or over the main Hawaiian Islands from Thursday
through Saturday.

Data from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Lane is now
a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but Lane is
forecast to remain a dangerous hurricane as it draws closer to the
Hawaiian Islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 922 mb (27.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the
Hurricane Warning area beginning late Wednesday night into
early Thursday morning, with hurricane conditions expected
somewhere within the warning area on Thursday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area beginning
Thursday into Thursday night, with hurricane conditions possible
late Thursday night into Friday.

RAINFALL: Excessive rainfall associated with Lane is expected
to affect portions of the Hawaiian Islands from late Wednesday into
the weekend, leading to flash flooding and landslides. Lane is
expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with
isolated amounts greater than 20 inches over the Hawaiian Islands.

SURF: Large swells generated by Lane will impact the Hawaiian
Islands, beginning tonight on the Big Island, spreading
across the remainder of the island chain on Wednesday. These
swells will produce large and potentially damaging surf along
exposed west, south and east facing shorelines.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM HST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Birchard


2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA32 PHFO 220239 RRA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
500 PM HST TUE AUG 21 2018

...POWERFUL HURRICANE LANE CONTINUES MOVING CLOSER TO THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR HAWAII COUNTY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 154.0W
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM SSE OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HAWAII COUNTY.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OAHU.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI, LANAI, MOLOKAI AND
KAHOOLAWE
. OAHU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS,
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA32 PHFO 220239
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Advisory Number 29
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
500 PM HST Tue Aug 21 2018

...POWERFUL HURRICANE LANE CONTINUES MOVING CLOSER TO THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR HAWAII COUNTY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 154.0W
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM SSE OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for Hawaii County.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Oahu.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Hawaii County

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe
* Oahu

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult
or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in the main Hawaiian Islands, and across the
Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, should continue to closely monitor
the progress of Hurricane Lane. Additional Tropical Storm or
Hurricane Watches or Warnings may be issued tonight or Wednesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lane was located
near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 154.0 West. Lane is moving
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue tonight. A turn toward the northwest is
expected on Wednesday, followed by a turn to the north-northwest on
Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Lane will move very
close to or over the main Hawaiian Islands from Thursday through
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lane is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast during the
next 48 hours, but Lane is forecast to remain a dangerous
hurricane as it draws closer to the Hawaiian Islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 929 mb (27.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the
Hurricane Warning area beginning late Wednesday night into
early Thursday morning, with hurricane conditions expected
somewhere within the warning area on Thursday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area beginning
Thursday into Thursday night, with hurricane conditions possible
late Thursday night into Friday.

RAINFALL: Excessive rainfall associated with Lane is expected
to affect portions of the Hawaiian Islands from late Wednesday into
the weekend, leading to flash flooding and landslides. Lane is
expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with
isolated amounts greater than 20 inches over the Hawaiian Islands.

SURF: Large swells generated by Lane will impact the Hawaiian
Islands, beginning tonight on the Big Island, spreading
across the remainder of the island chain on Wednesday. These
swells will produce large and potentially damaging surf along
exposed west, south and east facing shorelines.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM HST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Jacobson


2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA32 PHFO 212353 RRA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LANE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
200 PM HST TUE AUG 21 2018

...POWERFUL HURRICANE LANE MOVING CLOSER TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 153.6W
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SSE OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.43 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI, LANAI, MOLOKAI AND
KAHOOLAWE
.HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS,
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, AND ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE LANE. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM OR
HURRICANE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM HST (0000 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LANE WAS LOCATED

2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA32 PHFO 212353
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Intermediate Advisory Number 28A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
200 PM HST Tue Aug 21 2018

...POWERFUL HURRICANE LANE MOVING CLOSER TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 153.6W
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SSE OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.43 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
*Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe
*Hawaii County

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in the main Hawaiian Islands, and across the
Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, should continue to closely monitor
the progress of Hurricane Lane. Additional Tropical Storm or
Hurricane Watches will likely be issued this afternoon or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM HST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lane was located
by U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude
14.4 North, longitude 153.6 West. Lane is moving toward the
west-northwest near 10 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected
to continue through tonight. A turn toward the northwest is expected
Wednesday into Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Lane
will move very close to or over the main Hawaiian Islands from
Thursday through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lane is a powerful Category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast
during the next 48 hours, but Lane is forecast to remain a dangerous
hurricane as it draws closer to the Hawaiian Islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The minimum central pressure as recently reported by hurricane
hunter aircraft is 929 mb (27.43 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
Hurricane Watch area beginning Wednesday night, with hurricane
conditions possible on Thursday.

RAINFALL: Excessive rainfall associated with Lane is expected
to affect portions of the Hawaiian Islands from Wednesday into the
weekend, leading to flash flooding and landslides. Lane is expected
to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with isolated
maximum amounts of 20 inches over the Hawaiian Islands.

SURF: Large swells generated by Lane will impact the Hawaiian
Islands, beginning tonight on the Big Island and spreading
across the remainder of the island chain Wednesday through
Thursday. These swells will produce large and potentially
damaging surf along exposed west, south and east facing
shorelines.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Jacobson


2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA32 PHFO 212058 RRA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1100 AM HST TUE AUG 21 2018

...POWERFUL HURRICANE LANE MOVING CLOSER TO THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 153.2W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SSE OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
..MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI, LANAI, MOLOKAI AND
KAHOOLAWE
..HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS,
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, AND ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE LANE. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM OR
HURRICANE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LANE WAS LOCATED
BY U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE

2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA32 PHFO 212058
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Advisory Number 28
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1100 AM HST Tue Aug 21 2018

...POWERFUL HURRICANE LANE MOVING CLOSER TO THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 153.2W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SSE OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
*Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe
*Hawaii County

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in the main Hawaiian Islands, and across the
Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, should continue to closely monitor
the progress of Hurricane Lane. Additional Tropical Storm or
Hurricane Watches will likely be issued this afternoon or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lane was located
by U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude
14.3 North, longitude 153.2 West. Lane is moving toward the
west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue through tonight. A turn toward the northwest is expected
Wednesday into Thursday. On the forecast track, the center
of Lane will move very close to or over the main Hawaiian
Islands from Thursday through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lane is a powerful Category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is
forecast during the next 48 hours, but Lane is forecast to remain a
dangerous hurricane as it draws closer to the Hawaiian Islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The minimum central pressure as recently reported by hurricane
hunter aircraft is 941 mb (27.79 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
Hurricane Watch area beginning Wednesday night, with hurricane
conditions possible on Thursday.

RAINFALL: Excessive rainfall associated with Lane is expected
to affect portions of the Hawaiian Islands from Wednesday into the
weekend, leading to flash flooding and landslides. Lane is expected
to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with isolated
maximum amounts of 20 inches over the Hawaiian Islands.

SURF: Large swells generated by Lane will impact the Hawaiian
Islands, beginning tonight on the Big Island and spreading
across the remainder of the island chain Wednesday through
Thursday. These swells will produce large and potentially
damaging surf along exposed west, south and east facing
shorelines.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM HST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Jacobson


2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA32 PHFO 211757 RRA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LANE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
800 AM HST TUE AUG 21 2018

...MAJOR HURRICANE LANE MOVING WEST...EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 152.6W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SSE OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...14 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
..MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI, LANAI, MOLOKAI AND
KAHOOLAWE
..HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS,
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, AND ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE LANE. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM OR
HURRICANE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM HST (1800 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE LANE WAS LOCATED BY

2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA32 PHFO 211757
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
800 AM HST Tue Aug 21 2018

...MAJOR HURRICANE LANE MOVING WEST...EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 152.6W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SSE OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...14 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
*Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe
*Hawaii County

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in the main Hawaiian Islands, and across the
Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, should continue to closely monitor
the progress of Hurricane Lane. Additional Tropical Storm or
Hurricane Watches will likely be issued later today or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM HST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lane was located by
U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 14.1
North, longitude 152.6 West. Lane is moving toward the west near
9 mph (14 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue
through tonight, with a slight decrease in forward speed. A turn
toward the northwest is expected Wednesday into Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Lane will pass close to Hawaii and
Maui Counties on Thursday and Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 155 mph (250
km/h) with higher gusts. Lane remains a powerful Category 4
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Slight
weakening is expected during the next couple of days, but Lane is
forecast to remain a dangerous hurricane as it draws closer to the
Hawaiian Islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The minimum central pressure as recently measured by the hurricane
hunter aircraft is 940 mb (27.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area on Thursday.

RAINFALL: Excessive rainfall associated with Lane is expected
to affect portions of the Hawaiian Islands from Wednesday into the
weekend, leading to flash flooding and landslides. Lane is expected
to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with isolated
maximum amounts of 20 inches over the Hawaiian Islands.

SURF: Large swells generated by Lane will impact the Hawaiian
Islands this week. These swells will produce large and potentially
damaging surf along exposed south and west facing shorelines.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Jacobson


2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA32 PHFO 211443 RRA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
500 AM HST TUE AUG 21 2018

...MAJOR HURRICANE LANE STILL MOVING WEST BUT EXPECTED TO MAKE A
TURN TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS LATER THIS WEEK...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR HAWAII AND MAUI COUNTIES...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 152.3W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SSE OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 620 MI...995 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HAWAII COUNTY AND MAUI
COUNTY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI, LANAI, MOLOKAI AND
KAHOOLAWE
.HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS,
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, AND ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE LANE. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM OR
HURRICANE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN

2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA32 PHFO 211443
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Advisory Number 27
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
500 AM HST Tue Aug 21 2018

...MAJOR HURRICANE LANE STILL MOVING WEST BUT EXPECTED TO MAKE A
TURN TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS LATER THIS WEEK...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR HAWAII AND MAUI COUNTIES...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 152.3W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SSE OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 620 MI...995 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Hawaii county and Maui
County.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
*Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe
*Hawaii County

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in the main Hawaiian Islands, and across the
Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, should continue to closely monitor
the progress of Hurricane Lane. Additional Tropical Storm or
Hurricane Watches will likely be issued later today or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lane was located
by satellite near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 152.3 West. Lane is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight, with a slight decrease in
forward speed. A turn toward the northwest is expected Wednesday
into Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Lane will pass
close to Hawaii and Maui counties on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lane is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Slight weakening is expected the next couple
of days, but Lane is forecast to remain a dangerous hurricane as it
draws closer to the Hawaiian Islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area on Thursday.

RAINFALL: Excessive rainfall associated with Lane is expected
to affect portions of the Hawaiian Islands from Wednesday into the
weekend, leading to flash flooding and landslides. Lane is expected
to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with isolated
maximum amounts of 20 inches over the Hawaiian Islands.

SURF: Large swells generated by Lane will impact the Hawaiian
Islands this week. These swells will produce large and potentially
damaging surf along exposed south and west facing shorelines.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM HST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Birchard


2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA32 PHFO 210843 RRA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1100 PM HST MON AUG 20 2018

...MAJOR HURRICANE LANE EXPECTED TO MAKE A TURN TOWARD THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS LATER THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 151.2W
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SE OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 670 MI...1075 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF HURRICANE LANE.

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON TUESDAY.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE LANE WAS LOCATED BY
AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 151.2 WEST. LANE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH SOME SLOWING IN FORWARD
SPEED. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH (240 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LANE IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES (65 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES

2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA32 PHFO 210251 RRA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
500 PM HST MON AUG 20 2018

...LANE REMAINS A MAJOR HURRICANE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII AND
COULD BE A THREAT TO THE ISLANDS LATER THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 150.3W
ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM SE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, AND ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF HURRICANE LANE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE LANE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 150.3 WEST. LANE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO, WITH A TURN MORE
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 130 MPH (215 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LANE IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFTERWARD.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES

2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA32 PHFO 210843
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Advisory Number 26
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1100 PM HST Mon Aug 20 2018

...MAJOR HURRICANE LANE EXPECTED TO MAKE A TURN TOWARD THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS LATER THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 151.2W
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SE OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 670 MI...1075 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the main Hawaiian Islands and across the Northwestern
Hawaiian Islands should continue to closely monitor the progress
of Hurricane Lane.

A Hurricane Watch may be required for portions of the main
Hawaiian Islands on Tuesday.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lane was located by
aircraft near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 151.2 West. Lane is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through Tuesday, with some slowing in forward
speed. A gradual turn toward the northwest is expected Wednesday
into Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lane is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Slight weakening is forecast over the
next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Lane will impact the Hawaiian
Islands this week. These swells will produce large and potentially
damaging surf along exposed shorelines.

RAINFALL: Excessive rainfall associated with Lane could affect
portions of the Hawaiian Islands from Wednesday into the weekend,
leading to flash flooding and mud slides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Birchard


2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA32 PHFO 202049 RRA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1100 AM HST MON AUG 20 2018

...POWERFUL LANE CONTINUING WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII AND
MAY BE A THREAT TO THE ISLANDS LATER THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 149.1W
ABOUT 580 MI...930 KM SE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 785 MI...1265 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, AND ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF LANE THIS WEEK.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE LANE WAS LOCATED BY
U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS NEAR LATITUDE
13.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 149.1 WEST. LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST
NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND
A SLOWING OF FORWARD MOTION ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 130 MPH (215 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LANE IS A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO, WITH A WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ON TUESDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES

2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA32 PHFO 210251
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Advisory Number 25
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
500 PM HST Mon Aug 20 2018

...LANE REMAINS A MAJOR HURRICANE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII AND
COULD BE A THREAT TO THE ISLANDS LATER THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 150.3W
ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM SE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the main Hawaiian Islands, and across the Northwestern
Hawaiian Islands, should continue to closely monitor the progress
of Hurricane Lane.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lane was located
near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 150.3 West. Lane is moving
toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is
expected to continue for the next day or so, with a turn more
toward the northwest on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lane is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
over the next 24 to 36 hours, with a gradual weakening trend
expected to begin afterward.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Lane will impact the Hawaiian
Islands this week. These swells will produce large and dangerous
surf, as well as strong currents, along some shorelines.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall and possible flooding associated with
Lane could affect portions of the state beginning later Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster R Ballard


2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA32 PHFO 202049
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Advisory Number 24
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1100 AM HST Mon Aug 20 2018

...POWERFUL LANE CONTINUING WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII AND
MAY BE A THREAT TO THE ISLANDS LATER THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 149.1W
ABOUT 580 MI...930 KM SE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 785 MI...1265 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the main Hawaiian Islands, and across the Northwestern
Hawaiian Islands, should continue to closely monitor the progress
of Lane this week.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lane was located by
U.S. Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunters near latitude
13.6 North, longitude 149.1 West. Lane is moving toward the west
near 12 mph (19 km/h). A gradual turn toward the northwest and
a slowing of forward motion are expected over the next few
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lane is a powerful category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is
expected for the next day or so, with a weakening trend expected to
begin on Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Lane will impact the Hawaiian
Islands this week. These swells will produce large and dangerous
surf, as well as strong currents, along some shorelines.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall and possible flooding associated with
Lane is likely to affect portions of the state later this week.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster R Ballard


2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA32 PHFO 201443 RRA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
500 AM HST MON AUG 20 2018

...HURRICANE LANE MAY BE A THREAT TO PORTIONS OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 148.2W
ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM SE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 825 MI...1330 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, INCLUDING THE NORTHWESTERN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF LANE THIS WEEK. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, A TROPICAL STORM
OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF HAWAII LATER TODAY
OR TONIGHT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LANE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 148.2 WEST. LANE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. LANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AT A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST STARTING LATE TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH (205 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LANE IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY, WITH SOME WEAKENING POSSIBLE STARTING LATE TUESDAY.

2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA32 PHFO 201443
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Advisory Number 23
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
500 AM HST Mon Aug 20 2018

...HURRICANE LANE MAY BE A THREAT TO PORTIONS OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 148.2W
ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM SE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 825 MI...1330 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

All interests in the Hawaiian Islands, including the Northwestern
Hawaiian Islands, should continue to closely monitor the progress
of Lane this week. On the current forecast track, a Tropical Storm
or Hurricane Watch may be required for parts of Hawaii later today
or tonight.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lane was located
near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 148.2 West. Lane is moving
toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue today. Lane is forecast to move westward at a
slightly slower forward speed from tonight through early Tuesday,
followed by a turn toward the west-northwest starting late Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lane is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected through
early Tuesday, with some weakening possible starting late Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 120 miles
(195 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 961 mb (28.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Lane will impact the Hawaiian
Islands this week. These swells will likely produce large and
dangerous surf, as well as strong currents, along some
shorelines.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Houston


2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA32 PHFO 200842 RRA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1100 PM HST SUN AUG 19 2018

...POWERFUL HURRICANE LANE MOVING WESTWARD FAR SOUTHEAST OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 147.0W
ABOUT 675 MI...1080 KM SE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE THIS WEEK.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LANE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 147.0 WEST. LANE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. LANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 125 MPH (205 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ACCORDING TO DATA FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SAMPLING
HURRICANE LANE THIS EVENING. LANE REMAINS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING
FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE

2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA32 PHFO 200842
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Advisory Number 22
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1100 PM HST Sun Aug 19 2018

...POWERFUL HURRICANE LANE MOVING WESTWARD FAR SOUTHEAST OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 147.0W
ABOUT 675 MI...1080 KM SE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

All interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to
monitor the progress of Lane this week.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lane was located
near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 147.0 West. Lane is moving
toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through early Monday. Lane is forecast to move
westward at a slightly slower forward speed from late Monday through
Tuesday evening.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts according to data from reconnaissance aircraft sampling
Hurricane Lane this evening. Lane remains a category 3 hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in
strength is expected through Monday, with gradual weakening
forecast from Monday night through Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 110 miles
(175 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 961 mb (28.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Lane will impact the Hawaiian
Islands this week. These swells will likely produce large and
dangerous surf, as well as strong currents, along some
shorelines.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Houston


2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA32 PHFO 200259 RRA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
500 PM HST SUN AUG 19 2018

...HURRICANE LANE CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD FAR EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 145.8W
ABOUT 735 MI...1185 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 950 MI...1530 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE THIS WEEK.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LANE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 145.8 WEST. LANE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY. A GRADUAL SLOWING
IN FORWARD SPEED IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH (195 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LANE IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
(165 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB (28.35 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: A LARGE SWELL GENERATED BY LANE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE

2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA32 PHFO 192054 RRA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1100 AM HST SUN AUG 19 2018

...POWERFUL HURRICANE LANE MOVING WESTWARD FAR EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 144.6W
ABOUT 815 MI...1315 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1030 MI...1655 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE THIS WEEK.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LANE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 144.6 WEST. LANE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST TODAY. LANE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, BUT AT A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH (205 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LANE IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
(165 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 956 MB (28.23 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------

2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA32 PHFO 200259
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Advisory Number 21
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
500 PM HST Sun Aug 19 2018

...HURRICANE LANE CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD FAR EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 145.8W
ABOUT 735 MI...1185 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 950 MI...1530 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

All interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to
monitor the progress of Lane this week.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lane was located
near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 145.8 West. Lane is moving
toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to
gradually become west-northwest through Tuesday. A gradual slowing
in forward speed is also expected through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lane is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast through Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: A large swell generated by Lane is expected to reach the
southeast and east facing shores of the Big Island, and possibly
east facing shores of Maui, overnight. This swell may produce
large and dangerous surf along these shorelines starting early
Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Powell


2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA32 PHFO 192054
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Advisory Number 20
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1100 AM HST Sun Aug 19 2018

...POWERFUL HURRICANE LANE MOVING WESTWARD FAR EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 144.6W
ABOUT 815 MI...1315 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1030 MI...1655 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

All interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to
monitor the progress of Lane this week.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lane was located
near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 144.6 West. Lane is moving
toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to
persist today. Lane is expected to move westward to
west-northwestward through Monday night, but at a slightly
slower forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lane is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast through Monday
night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: A large swell generated by Lane is expected to reach the
southeast and east facing shores of the Big Island, and possibly
east facing shores of Maui, by this evening. This swell may produce
large and dangerous surf along these shorelines starting late
tonight or early Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Powell


2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA32 PHFO 191441 RRA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
500 AM HST SUN AUG 19 2018

...POWERFUL HURRICANE LANE MOVING OVER THE OPEN OCEAN FAR
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 143.5W
ABOUT 890 MI...1430 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1100 MI...1770 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE THIS WEEK.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LANE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 143.5 WEST. LANE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY. LANE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, BUT AT A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH (195 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LANE IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT, BUT LANE WILL LIKELY REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
(165 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 961 MB (28.38 INCHES).

2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA32 PHFO 191441
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Advisory Number 19
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
500 AM HST Sun Aug 19 2018

...POWERFUL HURRICANE LANE MOVING OVER THE OPEN OCEAN FAR
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 143.5W
ABOUT 890 MI...1430 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1100 MI...1770 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

All interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to
monitor the progress of Lane this week.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lane was located
near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 143.5 West. Lane is moving
toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to persist today. Lane is expected to continue moving
toward the west from tonight through Monday night, but at a slightly
slower forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lane is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slight weakening is possible later
today or tonight, but Lane will likely remain a powerful hurricane
through Monday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 961 mb (28.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: A large swell generated by Lane is expected to reach the
southeast and east facing shores of the Big Island, and possibly
east facing shores of Maui, by this evening. This swell may produce
large and dangerous surf along these shorelines starting later
tonight or early Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Houston


2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA32 PHFO 190843
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1100 PM HST SAT AUG 18 2018

...POWERFUL HURRICANE LANE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AFTER MOVING INTO
THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 142.3W
ABOUT 970 MI...1560 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1180 MI...1900 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LANE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 142.3 WEST. LANE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH (26 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. LANE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, BUT AT A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 125 MPH (205 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LANE IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
(165 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 956 MB (28.23 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

...
FORECASTER HOUSTON

2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA32 PHFO 190429
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LANE ADVISORY NUMBER 17...CORRECTED
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
500 PM HST SAT AUG 18 2018

...LANE HAS CROSSED INTO THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC AS A CATEGORY
4 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 141.0W
ABOUT 1050 MI...1685 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1260 MI...2025 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LANE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 141.0 WEST. LANE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH (26 KM/H), AND A MOTION BETWEEN WEST
AND WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 130 MPH (215 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LANE IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
(165 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB (28.12 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

...
FORECASTER POWELL

2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA22 PHFO 240245 RRA
TCMCP2

HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
0300 UTC FRI AUG 24 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE BIG ISLAND HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. OAHU
.. MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI... LANAI... MOLOKAI
AND KAHOOLAWE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE LANE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 157.9W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT.......110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA22 PHFO 240245
TCMCP2

HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
0300 UTC FRI AUG 24 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE BIG ISLAND HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU
* MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI... LANAI... MOLOKAI
AND KAHOOLAWE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE LANE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 157.9W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT.......110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 157.9W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 157.8W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 18.7N 157.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 19.6N 158.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 20.1N 158.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 20.3N 159.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.2N 162.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 20.8N 165.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 23.2N 167.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 157.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD



2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA22 PHFO 232042 RRA
TCMCP2

HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
2100 UTC THU AUG 23 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. OAHU
.. MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI... LANAI... MOLOKAI
AND
KAHOOLAWE
.. HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS IN THE THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE LANE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 157.5W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 949 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 150SW 210NW.

2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA22 PHFO 232042
TCMCP2

HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
2100 UTC THU AUG 23 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU
* MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI... LANAI... MOLOKAI
AND
KAHOOLAWE
* HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS IN THE THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE LANE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 157.5W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 949 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 157.5W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 157.5W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 18.2N 157.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 19.4N 157.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 20.1N 158.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 20.4N 158.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.3N 161.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 20.4N 164.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 22.3N 166.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 157.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD



2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA22 PHFO 231445 RRA
TCMCP2

HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1500 UTC THU AUG 23 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. OAHU
.. MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI... LANAI... MOLOKAI
AND
KAHOOLAWE
.. HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS IN THE THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE LANE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 157.4W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 949 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 150SW 210NW.

2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA22 PHFO 231445
TCMCP2

HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1500 UTC THU AUG 23 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU
* MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI... LANAI... MOLOKAI
AND
KAHOOLAWE
* HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS IN THE THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE LANE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 157.4W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 949 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 157.4W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 157.2W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 17.9N 157.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 19.1N 157.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.0N 157.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 20.3N 158.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.0N 161.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 20.0N 164.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 21.5N 166.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 157.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD



2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA22 PHFO 230835 RRA
TCMCP2

HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
0900 UTC THU AUG 23 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. OAHU
.. MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI... LANAI... MOLOKAI
AND
KAHOOLAWE
.. HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS IN THE THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE LANE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 156.9W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 939 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 180SW 240NW.

2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA22 PHFO 230835
TCMCP2

HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
0900 UTC THU AUG 23 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU
* MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI... LANAI... MOLOKAI
AND
KAHOOLAWE
* HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS IN THE THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE LANE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 156.9W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 939 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 180SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 156.9W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 156.7W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 17.2N 157.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 18.4N 157.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 19.5N 157.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 50SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 20.2N 158.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 20.4N 160.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 20.0N 163.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 20.5N 166.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 156.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD



2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA22 PHFO 230248 RRA
TCMCP2

HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
0300 UTC THU AUG 23 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
ISLAND OF OAHU.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. OAHU
. MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI... LANAI... MOLOKAI
AND KAHOOLAWE
. HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS IN THE THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE LANE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 156.5W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 939 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 25SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 65NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA22 PHFO 230248
TCMCP2

HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
0300 UTC THU AUG 23 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
ISLAND OF OAHU.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU
* MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI... LANAI... MOLOKAI
AND KAHOOLAWE
* HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS IN THE THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE LANE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 156.5W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 939 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 25SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 65NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 80SE 65SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..165NE 140SE 190SW 220NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 156.5W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 156.3W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.8N 157.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 18.1N 157.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 19.2N 157.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.0N 158.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 20.7N 159.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 20.3N 162.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 20.5N 165.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 156.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD



2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA22 PHFO 222044 RRA
TCMCP2

HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
2100 UTC WED AUG 22 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. HAWAII COUNTY
.. MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI... LANAI... MOLOKAI
AND
KAHOOLAWE

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. OAHU
.. KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS IN THE THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE LANE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 155.9W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 25SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 65NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 80SE 65SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..165NE 140SE 190SW 220NW.

2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA22 PHFO 222044
TCMCP2

HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
2100 UTC WED AUG 22 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY
* MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI... LANAI... MOLOKAI
AND
KAHOOLAWE

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU
* KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS IN THE THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE LANE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 155.9W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 25SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 65NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 80SE 65SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..165NE 140SE 190SW 220NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 155.9W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 155.6W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.2N 156.7W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 17.6N 157.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 18.9N 157.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 19.9N 157.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 20.8N 158.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 21.0N 162.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 20.9N 165.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 155.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD



2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA22 PHFO 221446 RRA
TCMCP2

HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1500 UTC WED AUG 22 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR...
. MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI... LANAI... MOLOKAI
AND KAHOOLAWE

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR...
.. KAUAI

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. HAWAII COUNTY
.. MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI... LANAI... MOLOKAI
AND KAHOOLAWE

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. OAHU
.. KAUAI

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... AND ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE LANE. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM OR
HURRICANE WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 155.3W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT

2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA22 PHFO 221446
TCMCP2

HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1500 UTC WED AUG 22 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR...
* MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI... LANAI... MOLOKAI
AND KAHOOLAWE

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR...
* KAUAI

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY
* MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI... LANAI... MOLOKAI
AND KAHOOLAWE

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU
* KAUAI

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... AND ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE LANE. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM OR
HURRICANE WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 155.3W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 25SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 65NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 80SE 65SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..165NE 140SE 190SW 220NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 155.3W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 155.0W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.8N 156.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.1N 157.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 18.4N 157.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 19.7N 158.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 21.0N 160.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 20.8N 163.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 20.6N 166.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 155.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER POWELL



2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA22 PHFO 220857 RRA
TCMCP2

HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
0900 UTC WED AUG 22 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI... LANAI... MOLOKAI
AND
KAHOOLAWE
.. OAHU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... AND ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE LANE. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM OR
HURRICANE WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 154.5W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 930 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.

2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA22 PHFO 220857
TCMCP2

HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
0900 UTC WED AUG 22 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI... LANAI... MOLOKAI
AND
KAHOOLAWE
* OAHU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... AND ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE LANE. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM OR
HURRICANE WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 154.5W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 930 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT.......120NE 95SE 70SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 154.5W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 154.2W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.4N 155.6W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.6N 156.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 17.8N 157.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 19.1N 157.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 21.0N 159.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 21.2N 162.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 20.8N 165.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 154.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER POWELL



2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA22 PHFO 220438 RRA
TCMCP2

HURRICANE LANE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
0430 UTC WED AUG 22 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI... LANAI... MOLOKAI
AND KAHOOLAWE
. OAHU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... AND ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE LANE. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM OR
HURRICANE WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 154.0W AT 22/0430Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 922 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.

2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA22 PHFO 220438
TCMCP2

HURRICANE LANE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
0430 UTC WED AUG 22 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI... LANAI... MOLOKAI
AND KAHOOLAWE
* OAHU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... AND ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE LANE. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM OR
HURRICANE WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 154.0W AT 22/0430Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 922 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 40SE 30SW 80NW.
34 KT.......110NE 95SE 50SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 154.0W AT 22/0430Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 153.6W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.0N 155.0W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 80NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.0N 156.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.2N 156.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 18.6N 157.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 21.1N 158.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 21.5N 161.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 21.0N 164.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 154.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD/JACOBSON



2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA22 PHFO 220235 RRA
TCMCP2

HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
0300 UTC WED AUG 22 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HAWAII COUNTY.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OAHU.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI... LANAI... MOLOKAI
AND KAHOOLAWE
. OAHU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... AND ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE LANE. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM OR
HURRICANE WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 154.0W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 929 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM

2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA22 PHFO 220235
TCMCP2

HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
0300 UTC WED AUG 22 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HAWAII COUNTY.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OAHU.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI... LANAI... MOLOKAI
AND KAHOOLAWE
* OAHU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... AND ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE LANE. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM OR
HURRICANE WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 154.0W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 929 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 40SE 30SW 80NW.
34 KT.......110NE 95SE 50SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 154.0W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 153.6W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.0N 155.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 80NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.0N 156.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.2N 156.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 18.6N 157.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 21.1N 158.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 21.5N 161.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 21.0N 164.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 154.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER JACOBSON



2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA22 PHFO 212058 RRA
TCMCP2

HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
2100 UTC TUE AUG 21 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI... LANAI... MOLOKAI AND
KAHOOLAWE
.HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... AND ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE LANE. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM OR
HURRICANE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 153.2W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 941 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 45SE 35SW 60NW.
34 KT.......110NE 95SE 60SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 153.2W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 152.7W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.7N 154.2W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.

2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA22 PHFO 212058
TCMCP2

HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
2100 UTC TUE AUG 21 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
*MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI... LANAI... MOLOKAI AND
KAHOOLAWE
*HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... AND ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE LANE. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM OR
HURRICANE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 153.2W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 941 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 45SE 35SW 60NW.
34 KT.......110NE 95SE 60SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 153.2W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 152.7W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.7N 154.2W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 35SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 95SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.6N 155.3W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.6N 156.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 17.9N 156.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 20.6N 158.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 21.7N 160.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 21.5N 164.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 153.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER JACOBSON



2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA22 PHFO 211433 RRA
TCMCP2

HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1500 UTC TUE AUG 21 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HAWAII COUNTY AND MAUI
COUNTY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI... LANAI... MOLOKAI AND
KAHOOLAWE
..HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AND ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE LANE. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM OR
HURRICANE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 152.3W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 25SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 45SE 35SW 70NW.
34 KT.......110NE 85SE 85SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 152.3W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 151.8W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 14.4N 153.4W

2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA22 PHFO 211433
TCMCP2

HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1500 UTC TUE AUG 21 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HAWAII COUNTY AND MAUI
COUNTY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
*MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI... LANAI... MOLOKAI AND
KAHOOLAWE
*HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AND ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE LANE. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM OR
HURRICANE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 152.3W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 25SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 45SE 35SW 70NW.
34 KT.......110NE 85SE 85SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 152.3W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 151.8W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 14.4N 153.4W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 35SW 70NW.
34 KT...110NE 85SE 85SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.0N 154.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.9N 155.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.0N 156.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 19.7N 157.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 50SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 21.5N 159.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 21.5N 163.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 152.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD



2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA22 PHFO 210834 RRA
TCMCP2

HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
0900 UTC TUE AUG 21 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF HURRICANE LANE.

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON TUESDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 151.2W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 25SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 55NE 45SE 35SW 55NW.
34 KT.......110NE 85SE 85SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 151.2W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 150.8W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 14.3N 152.4W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.7N 153.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.4N 155.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.4N 156.0W

2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA22 PHFO 210834
TCMCP2

HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
0900 UTC TUE AUG 21 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF HURRICANE LANE.

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON TUESDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 151.2W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 25SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 55NE 45SE 35SW 55NW.
34 KT.......110NE 85SE 85SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 151.2W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 150.8W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 14.3N 152.4W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.7N 153.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.4N 155.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.4N 156.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 18.9N 157.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 95NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 20.7N 159.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 21.0N 161.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 151.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD



2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA22 PHFO 210251 RRA
TCMCP2

HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
0300 UTC TUE AUG 21 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AND ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE LANE THIS WEEK.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 150.3W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......110NE 80SE 70SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..290NE 150SE 180SW 260NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 150.3W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 149.8W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 14.0N 151.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 25SE 25SW 55NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 14.3N 153.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 25SE 25SW 55NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 14.8N 154.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 25SE 25SW 55NW.
34 KT...105NE 80SE 70SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.7N 155.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.

2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA22 PHFO 210251
TCMCP2

HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
0300 UTC TUE AUG 21 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AND ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE LANE THIS WEEK.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 150.3W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......110NE 80SE 70SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..290NE 150SE 180SW 260NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 150.3W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 149.8W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 14.0N 151.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 25SE 25SW 55NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 14.3N 153.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 25SE 25SW 55NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 14.8N 154.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 25SE 25SW 55NW.
34 KT...105NE 80SE 70SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.7N 155.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT...105NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 17.9N 157.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 20.0N 159.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 20.8N 161.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 150.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD



2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA22 PHFO 202048 RRA
TCMCP2

HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
2100 UTC MON AUG 20 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... AND ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF LANE THIS WEEK.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 149.1W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 25SE 25SW 55NW.
34 KT.......105NE 70SE 70SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..290NE 150SE 180SW 260NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 149.1W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 148.6W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 13.7N 150.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 25SE 25SW 55NW.
34 KT...105NE 70SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 13.9N 152.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 25SE 25SW 55NW.
34 KT...105NE 70SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.3N 153.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 25SE 25SW 55NW.
34 KT...105NE 75SE 70SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 14.9N 155.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 35SE 25SW 55NW.

2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA22 PHFO 201441 RRA
TCMCP2

HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1500 UTC MON AUG 20 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE NORTHWESTERN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF LANE THIS WEEK. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...A TROPICAL STORM
OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF HAWAII LATER TODAY
OR TONIGHT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 148.2W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 25SE 25SW 55NW.
34 KT.......105NE 60SE 70SW 105NW.
12 FT SEAS..290NE 150SE 180SW 260NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 148.2W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 147.7W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 13.9N 149.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 25SE 25SW 55NW.
34 KT...105NE 60SE 70SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 14.2N 151.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 25SE 25SW 55NW.
34 KT...105NE 60SE 70SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 14.5N 153.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 25SE 25SW 55NW.
34 KT...105NE 60SE 70SW 105NW.

2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA22 PHFO 202048
TCMCP2

HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
2100 UTC MON AUG 20 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... AND ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF LANE THIS WEEK.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 149.1W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 25SE 25SW 55NW.
34 KT.......105NE 70SE 70SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..290NE 150SE 180SW 260NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 149.1W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 148.6W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 13.7N 150.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 25SE 25SW 55NW.
34 KT...105NE 70SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 13.9N 152.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 25SE 25SW 55NW.
34 KT...105NE 70SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.3N 153.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 25SE 25SW 55NW.
34 KT...105NE 75SE 70SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 14.9N 155.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 35SE 25SW 55NW.
34 KT...105NE 90SE 70SW 95NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.9N 157.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 55NE 40SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 19.4N 158.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 20.6N 160.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 149.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD



2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA22 PHFO 201441
TCMCP2

HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1500 UTC MON AUG 20 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE NORTHWESTERN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF LANE THIS WEEK. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...A TROPICAL STORM
OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF HAWAII LATER TODAY
OR TONIGHT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 148.2W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 25SE 25SW 55NW.
34 KT.......105NE 60SE 70SW 105NW.
12 FT SEAS..290NE 150SE 180SW 260NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 148.2W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 147.7W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 13.9N 149.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 25SE 25SW 55NW.
34 KT...105NE 60SE 70SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 14.2N 151.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 25SE 25SW 55NW.
34 KT...105NE 60SE 70SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 14.5N 153.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 25SE 25SW 55NW.
34 KT...105NE 60SE 70SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.0N 154.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 25SE 25SW 55NW.
34 KT...105NE 60SE 70SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.6N 157.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 55NE 30SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 19.0N 159.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 21.0N 160.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 148.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON



2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA22 PHFO 200838 RRA
TCMCP2

HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
0900 UTC MON AUG 20 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE THIS WEEK.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 147.0W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 30SE 25SW 45NW.
34 KT....... 95NE 60SE 70SW 85NW.
12 FT SEAS..280NE 150SE 180SW 260NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 147.0W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 146.5W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 13.9N 148.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 25SW 45NW.
34 KT... 95NE 60SE 70SW 85NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 14.1N 150.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 25SW 45NW.
34 KT... 95NE 60SE 70SW 85NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 14.4N 152.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 25SW 45NW.
34 KT... 95NE 60SE 70SW 85NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.7N 153.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 55NE 30SE 25SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.9N 156.6W

2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA22 PHFO 200838
TCMCP2

HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
0900 UTC MON AUG 20 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE THIS WEEK.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 147.0W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 30SE 25SW 45NW.
34 KT....... 95NE 60SE 70SW 85NW.
12 FT SEAS..280NE 150SE 180SW 260NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 147.0W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 146.5W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 13.9N 148.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 25SW 45NW.
34 KT... 95NE 60SE 70SW 85NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 14.1N 150.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 25SW 45NW.
34 KT... 95NE 60SE 70SW 85NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 14.4N 152.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 25SW 45NW.
34 KT... 95NE 60SE 70SW 85NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.7N 153.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 55NE 30SE 25SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.9N 156.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 35SE 20SW 45NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 70SW 95NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 17.5N 158.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 20.0N 160.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 147.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON



2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA22 PHFO 200256 RRA
TCMCP2

HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
0300 UTC MON AUG 20 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE THIS WEEK.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 145.8W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 35SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 40SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..280NE 160SE 180SW 260NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 145.8W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 145.3W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 14.1N 147.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT... 95NE 75SE 55SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 14.4N 149.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 45SW 95NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 14.6N 151.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 45SW 95NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 14.9N 152.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 45SW 95NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.6N 156.2W

2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA22 PHFO 192054 RRA
TCMCP2

HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
2100 UTC SUN AUG 19 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE THIS WEEK.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 144.6W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 35SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 40SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..280NE 160SE 180SW 260NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 144.6W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 144.1W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 13.8N 146.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 55SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 14.1N 148.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 45SW 95NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 14.3N 150.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 45SW 95NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 14.6N 152.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 45SW 95NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.2N 155.3W

2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA22 PHFO 200256
TCMCP2

HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
0300 UTC MON AUG 20 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE THIS WEEK.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 145.8W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 35SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 40SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..280NE 160SE 180SW 260NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 145.8W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 145.3W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 14.1N 147.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT... 95NE 75SE 55SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 14.4N 149.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 45SW 95NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 14.6N 151.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 45SW 95NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 14.9N 152.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 45SW 95NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.6N 156.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 40SE 25SW 45NW.
34 KT...110NE 85SE 50SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 17.0N 159.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 19.1N 161.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 145.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER POWELL



2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA22 PHFO 192054
TCMCP2

HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
2100 UTC SUN AUG 19 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE THIS WEEK.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 144.6W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 35SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 40SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..280NE 160SE 180SW 260NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 144.6W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 144.1W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 13.8N 146.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 55SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 14.1N 148.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 45SW 95NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 14.3N 150.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 45SW 95NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 14.6N 152.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 45SW 95NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.2N 155.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 40SE 25SW 45NW.
34 KT...110NE 85SE 50SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 16.5N 158.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 18.2N 161.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 144.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER POWELL



2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA22 PHFO 191438 RRA
TCMCP2

HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1500 UTC SUN AUG 19 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE THIS WEEK.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 143.5W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 35SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 40SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..280NE 160SE 180SW 260NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 143.5W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 142.9W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 13.5N 145.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 13.8N 147.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 45SW 95NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 14.0N 148.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 45SW 95NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 14.2N 150.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 45SW 95NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 14.8N 154.4W

2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA22 PHFO 191438
TCMCP2

HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
1500 UTC SUN AUG 19 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LANE THIS WEEK.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 143.5W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 35SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 40SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..280NE 160SE 180SW 260NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 143.5W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 142.9W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 13.5N 145.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 13.8N 147.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 45SW 95NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 14.0N 148.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 45SW 95NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 14.2N 150.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 45SW 95NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 14.8N 154.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 40SE 25SW 45NW.
34 KT...110NE 85SE 50SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 16.0N 157.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 17.6N 160.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 143.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON



2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA22 PHFO 190840 RRA
TCMCP2

HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
0900 UTC SUN AUG 19 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 142.3W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 35NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..260NE 170SE 160SW 220NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 142.3W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 141.6W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 13.2N 143.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 45SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 13.5N 146.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 45SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 13.7N 147.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 45SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 13.9N 149.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 45SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.3N 153.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.

2018-08-24 06:01

WTPA22 PHFO 190840
TCMCP2

HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
0900 UTC SUN AUG 19 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 142.3W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 35NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..260NE 170SE 160SW 220NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 142.3W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 141.6W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 13.2N 143.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 45SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 13.5N 146.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 45SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 13.7N 147.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 45SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 13.9N 149.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 45SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.3N 153.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 15.2N 156.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 17.0N 160.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 142.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON



2018-08-24 06:01

WTNT82 EGRR 240402

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 24.08.2018

HURRICANE LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 17.5N 157.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.08.2018 0 17.5N 157.5W 970 70
1200UTC 24.08.2018 12 18.5N 157.5W 982 62
0000UTC 25.08.2018 24 19.5N 156.8W 997 51
1200UTC 25.08.2018 36 20.3N 156.8W 1004 40
0000UTC 26.08.2018 48 20.5N 159.6W 1008 32
1200UTC 26.08.2018 60 19.3N 161.5W 1008 28
0000UTC 27.08.2018 72 19.5N 163.1W 1008 27
1200UTC 27.08.2018 84 19.0N 165.5W 1008 24
0000UTC 28.08.2018 96 18.5N 166.7W 1008 25
1200UTC 28.08.2018 108 18.8N 168.5W 1008 25
0000UTC 29.08.2018 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 13.9N 122.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.08.2018 132 13.9N 122.6W 1005 27
0000UTC 30.08.2018 144 14.6N 125.9W 1004 31


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 240402

2018-08-24 06:01

WTNT82 EGRR 231607

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 23.08.2018

HURRICANE LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 16.9N 156.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.08.2018 0 16.9N 156.7W 957 80
0000UTC 24.08.2018 12 18.1N 157.3W 965 75
1200UTC 24.08.2018 24 19.2N 157.3W 977 70
0000UTC 25.08.2018 36 20.2N 156.9W 999 45
1200UTC 25.08.2018 48 20.5N 158.6W 1007 31
0000UTC 26.08.2018 60 19.8N 160.8W 1008 29
1200UTC 26.08.2018 72 19.4N 162.2W 1008 27
0000UTC 27.08.2018 84 19.4N 163.6W 1008 26
1200UTC 27.08.2018 96 19.3N 165.5W 1008 24
0000UTC 28.08.2018 108 19.0N 166.0W 1007 24
1200UTC 28.08.2018 120 19.5N 166.1W 1008 24
0000UTC 29.08.2018 132 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 17.1N 136.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.08.2018 96 17.1N 136.9W 1008 25
0000UTC 28.08.2018 108 17.5N 137.1W 1007 25
1200UTC 28.08.2018 120 17.4N 135.9W 1007 24
0000UTC 29.08.2018 132 16.9N 136.7W 1008 22
1200UTC 29.08.2018 144 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 231607

2018-08-24 06:01

WTNT82 EGRR 230404

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 23.08.2018

HURRICANE LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.6N 156.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 23.08.2018 0 15.6N 156.4W 958 75
1200UTC 23.08.2018 12 16.5N 157.1W 964 72
0000UTC 24.08.2018 24 17.7N 157.3W 972 65
1200UTC 24.08.2018 36 19.1N 156.9W 979 63
0000UTC 25.08.2018 48 20.0N 156.3W 1003 39
1200UTC 25.08.2018 60 19.5N 158.9W 1007 32
0000UTC 26.08.2018 72 19.1N 159.6W 1008 31
1200UTC 26.08.2018 84 19.0N 161.3W 1008 27
0000UTC 27.08.2018 96 18.6N 163.1W 1007 26
1200UTC 27.08.2018 108 18.7N 164.2W 1007 23
0000UTC 28.08.2018 120 19.1N 165.0W 1007 26
1200UTC 28.08.2018 132 20.5N 165.1W 1006 29
0000UTC 29.08.2018 144 21.3N 165.4W 1006 34

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 12.2N 102.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.08.2018 144 13.0N 103.1W 1003 37


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 230403

2018-08-24 06:01

WTNT82 EGRR 221605

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 22.08.2018

HURRICANE LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 155.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.08.2018 0 15.0N 155.0W 974 66
0000UTC 23.08.2018 12 15.9N 156.4W 967 71
1200UTC 23.08.2018 24 17.1N 157.1W 966 68
0000UTC 24.08.2018 36 18.4N 157.1W 971 65
1200UTC 24.08.2018 48 20.0N 156.8W 994 61
0000UTC 25.08.2018 60 20.6N 158.2W 1004 38
1200UTC 25.08.2018 72 20.1N 159.2W 1005 33
0000UTC 26.08.2018 84 20.2N 160.5W 1006 31
1200UTC 26.08.2018 96 19.9N 162.0W 1007 27
0000UTC 27.08.2018 108 20.3N 163.4W 1006 25
1200UTC 27.08.2018 120 20.6N 164.0W 1005 30
0000UTC 28.08.2018 132 20.9N 164.5W 1004 32
1200UTC 28.08.2018 144 21.3N 165.0W 1004 29

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 10.6N 96.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.08.2018 132 10.6N 96.0W 1006 26
1200UTC 28.08.2018 144 11.7N 98.7W 1003 35


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 221605

2018-08-24 06:01

WTNT82 EGRR 220405

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 22.08.2018

HURRICANE LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 153.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.08.2018 0 14.2N 153.0W 986 55
1200UTC 22.08.2018 12 15.0N 154.7W 990 57
0000UTC 23.08.2018 24 15.6N 155.9W 988 52
1200UTC 23.08.2018 36 16.5N 156.8W 984 57
0000UTC 24.08.2018 48 17.6N 157.1W 982 55
1200UTC 24.08.2018 60 19.2N 156.7W 989 52
0000UTC 25.08.2018 72 20.0N 157.0W 1003 44
1200UTC 25.08.2018 84 20.6N 158.2W 1006 35
0000UTC 26.08.2018 96 19.9N 160.3W 1007 30
1200UTC 26.08.2018 108 19.7N 161.5W 1007 25
0000UTC 27.08.2018 120 19.6N 163.1W 1006 25
1200UTC 27.08.2018 132 20.0N 163.6W 1005 27
0000UTC 28.08.2018 144 20.8N 164.1W 1005 36

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 10.8N 97.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.08.2018 144 10.8N 97.7W 1006 27


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 220404

2018-08-24 06:01

WTNT82 EGRR 211606

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 21.08.2018

HURRICANE LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.7N 151.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.08.2018 0 13.7N 151.6W 985 60
0000UTC 22.08.2018 12 13.9N 153.0W 985 58
1200UTC 22.08.2018 24 14.6N 154.4W 984 55
0000UTC 23.08.2018 36 15.3N 155.7W 981 55
1200UTC 23.08.2018 48 16.5N 156.5W 980 59
0000UTC 24.08.2018 60 18.0N 157.0W 977 59
1200UTC 24.08.2018 72 19.8N 156.8W 982 69
0000UTC 25.08.2018 84 20.8N 158.0W 1001 42
1200UTC 25.08.2018 96 20.1N 159.1W 1003 33
0000UTC 26.08.2018 108 20.0N 160.3W 1005 32
1200UTC 26.08.2018 120 19.6N 162.0W 1005 28
0000UTC 27.08.2018 132 19.5N 163.2W 1004 28
1200UTC 27.08.2018 144 19.4N 164.1W 1004 30


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 211606

2018-08-24 06:01

WTNT82 EGRR 210402

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 21.08.2018

HURRICANE LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.5N 149.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 21.08.2018 0 13.5N 149.6W 983 57
1200UTC 21.08.2018 12 14.0N 151.4W 990 57
0000UTC 22.08.2018 24 14.2N 152.6W 989 51
1200UTC 22.08.2018 36 14.7N 153.8W 986 50
0000UTC 23.08.2018 48 15.4N 155.1W 983 56
1200UTC 23.08.2018 60 16.1N 156.1W 982 56
0000UTC 24.08.2018 72 17.2N 156.6W 979 56
1200UTC 24.08.2018 84 18.7N 156.5W 974 65
0000UTC 25.08.2018 96 19.8N 157.0W 1000 48
1200UTC 25.08.2018 108 19.7N 157.9W 1003 34
0000UTC 26.08.2018 120 19.4N 158.9W 1004 32
1200UTC 26.08.2018 132 18.9N 160.1W 1005 27
0000UTC 27.08.2018 144 18.9N 161.2W 1005 27


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 210402

2018-08-24 06:01

WTNT82 EGRR 201603

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 20.08.2018

HURRICANE LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.4N 147.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.08.2018 0 13.4N 147.7W 985 61
0000UTC 21.08.2018 12 13.6N 149.8W 987 57
1200UTC 21.08.2018 24 13.8N 151.6W 989 51
0000UTC 22.08.2018 36 14.0N 153.3W 988 50