Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CIMARON-18
in Japan

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.




Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 241200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 25
NAME LOW FROM 1820 CIMARON
ANALYSIS
POSITION 241200UTC 41.5N 139.7E
MOVEMENT ENE 18KT
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 39KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 240900
WARNING ATCG MIL 23W NWP 180824070557
2018082406 23W CIMARON 027 03 030 21 SATL 060
T000 408N 1377E 045 R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD 155 SW QD 165 NW QD
T012 426N 1433E 035 R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 150 SW QD 190 NW QD
T024 424N 1507E 025
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 027
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 027
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 40.8N 137.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 40.8N 137.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 42.6N 143.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 42.4N 150.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 41.2N 139.1E.
TROPICAL STORM 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 161 NM WEST
OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z
IS 18 FEET.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2318081512 133N1645E 20
2318081518 132N1631E 20
2318081600 132N1617E 20
2318081606 131N1608E 20
2318081612 127N1593E 20
2318081618 126N1588E 20
2318081700 126N1583E 20
2318081706 127N1581E 20
2318081712 130N1569E 20
2318081718 133N1556E 25
2318081800 137N1547E 30
2318081806 141N1545E 35
2318081812 144N1537E 35
2318081818 147N1529E 40
2318081900 151N1522E 40
2318081906 156N1511E 45
2318081912 160N1505E 55
2318081912 160N1505E 55
2318081918 165N1498E 60
2318081918 165N1498E 60
2318082000 170N1488E 65
2318082000 170N1488E 65
2318082000 170N1488E 65
2318082006 176N1480E 65
2318082006 176N1480E 65
2318082006 176N1480E 65
2318082012 186N1474E 65
2318082012 186N1474E 65
2318082012 186N1474E 65
2318082018 194N1462E 65
2318082018 194N1462E 65
2318082018 194N1462E 65
2318082100 200N1451E 70
2318082100 200N1451E 70
2318082100 200N1451E 70
2318082106 212N1440E 75
2318082106 212N1440E 75
2318082106 212N1440E 75
2318082112 220N1428E 80
2318082112 220N1428E 80
2318082112 220N1428E 80
2318082118 230N1413E 90
2318082118 230N1413E 90
2318082118 230N1413E 90
2318082200 241N1400E 110
2318082200 241N1400E 110
2318082200 241N1400E 110
2318082206 255N1388E 110
2318082206 255N1388E 110
2318082206 255N1388E 110
2318082212 269N1374E 100
2318082212 269N1374E 100
2318082212 269N1374E 100
2318082218 285N1360E 90
2318082218 285N1360E 90
2318082218 285N1360E 90
2318082300 299N1350E 85
2318082300 299N1350E 85
2318082300 299N1350E 85
2318082306 319N1345E 80
2318082306 319N1345E 80
2318082306 319N1345E 80
2318082312 338N1347E 75
2318082312 338N1347E 75
2318082312 338N1347E 75
2318082318 366N1352E 55
2318082318 366N1352E 55
2318082400 390N1363E 50
2318082400 390N1363E 50
2318082406 408N1377E 45


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 027
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 40.8N 137.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 40.8N 137.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 42.6N 143.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 42.4N 150.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 41.2N 139.1E.
TROPICAL STORM 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 161 NM WEST
OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A WEAKENING SYSTEM, WITH A DECOUPLED AND FULLY EXPOSED LLCC
AND EXPANDING ASYMMETRIC CLOUD SHIELD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON A 240111Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING 40-44
KT WIND BARBS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER, AND ABOVE A PGTW
SUBTROPICAL FIX OF 35 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE
SYSTEM LIES IN AN AREA OF HIGH (30+ KNOTS) VWS UNDER THE MIDLATITUDE
JET AND COOL (24-25 DEG CELSIUS) SSTS. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO
TRACK RAPIDLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST CARRIED ALONG BY THE WESTERLY
JET. DUE TO THE POSITION UNDER THE WESTERLY JET AND COOL SSTS, 23W
HAS BEGUN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, WITH A 232200Z AMSU CORE
TEMPERATURE CROSS-SECTION SHOWING A BUILDING COLD-CORE ANOMALY AT
MID-LEVELS. 23W WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE EAST-
NORTHEAST UNDER THE WESTERLY JET, AND TRANSITION INTO A COLD-CORE
SYSTEM WITH EXPANSIVE WIND FIELDS AND ASYMMETRIC CONVECTION. MODELS
SHOW THAT 23W AND 22W WILL REMAIN DISTINCT SYSTEMS. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z
IS 18 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 22W (SOULIK) WARNINGS (WTPN35
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W
(TWENTYFOUR) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 240600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 24
NAME 1820 CIMARON
ANALYSIS
POSITION 240600UTC 40.6N 137.6E
MOVEMENT NE 18KT
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 43KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 250600UTC 43.4N 149.0E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 39KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 240600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPED LOW FORMER STS 1820 CIMARON (1820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240600UTC 41N 138E
MOVE NNE 25KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 240300
WARNING 240300.
WARNING VALID 250300.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1820 CIMARON (1820) 990 HPA
AT 39.8N 136.6E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 25 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241500UTC AT 42.0N 141.4E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250300UTC AT 41.7N 148.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 240300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1820 CIMARON (1820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240300UTC 39.8N 136.6E FAIR
MOVE NNE 25KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 250300UTC 41.7N 148.7E 80NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 240300
WARNING ATCG MIL 23W NWP 180824015417
2018082400 23W CIMARON 026 03 020 26 SATL 060
T000 390N 1363E 050 R050 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 165 SE QD 115 SW Q
D 110 NW QD
T012 421N 1401E 040 R034 115 NE QD 105 SE QD 115 SW QD 155 NW QD
T024 428N 1464E 035 R034 150 NE QD 125 SE QD 110 SW QD 165 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 026
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 026
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 39.0N 136.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 26 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 39.0N 136.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 42.1N 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 42.8N 146.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 39.8N 137.3E.
TROPICAL STORM 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 241 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 26
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2318081512 133N1645E 20
2318081518 132N1631E 20
2318081600 132N1617E 20
2318081606 131N1608E 20
2318081612 127N1593E 20
2318081618 126N1588E 20
2318081700 126N1583E 20
2318081706 127N1581E 20
2318081712 130N1569E 20
2318081718 133N1556E 25
2318081800 137N1547E 30
2318081806 141N1545E 35
2318081812 144N1537E 35
2318081818 147N1529E 40
2318081900 151N1522E 40
2318081906 156N1511E 45
2318081912 160N1505E 55
2318081912 160N1505E 55
2318081918 165N1498E 60
2318081918 165N1498E 60
2318082000 170N1488E 65
2318082000 170N1488E 65
2318082000 170N1488E 65
2318082006 176N1480E 65
2318082006 176N1480E 65
2318082006 176N1480E 65
2318082012 186N1474E 65
2318082012 186N1474E 65
2318082012 186N1474E 65
2318082018 194N1462E 65
2318082018 194N1462E 65
2318082018 194N1462E 65
2318082100 200N1451E 70
2318082100 200N1451E 70
2318082100 200N1451E 70
2318082106 212N1440E 75
2318082106 212N1440E 75
2318082106 212N1440E 75
2318082112 220N1428E 80
2318082112 220N1428E 80
2318082112 220N1428E 80
2318082118 230N1413E 90
2318082118 230N1413E 90
2318082118 230N1413E 90
2318082200 241N1400E 110
2318082200 241N1400E 110
2318082200 241N1400E 110
2318082206 255N1388E 110
2318082206 255N1388E 110
2318082206 255N1388E 110
2318082212 269N1374E 100
2318082212 269N1374E 100
2318082212 269N1374E 100
2318082218 285N1360E 90
2318082218 285N1360E 90
2318082218 285N1360E 90
2318082300 299N1350E 85
2318082300 299N1350E 85
2318082300 299N1350E 85
2318082306 319N1345E 80
2318082306 319N1345E 80
2318082306 319N1345E 80
2318082312 338N1347E 75
2318082312 338N1347E 75
2318082312 338N1347E 75
2318082318 366N1352E 55
2318082318 366N1352E 55
2318082400 390N1363E 50
2318082400 390N1363E 50


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 026
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 39.0N 136.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 26 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 39.0N 136.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 42.1N 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 42.8N 146.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 39.8N 137.3E.
TROPICAL STORM 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 241 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 26
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
240000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 22W (SOULIK) WARNINGS (WTPN35 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W
(TWENTYFOUR) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 240000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.25 FOR STS 1820 CIMARON (1820)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS CIMARON IS LOCATED AT 39.1N, 136.2E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW
TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD
UNTIL FT24. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS.
JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT12 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT12. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
ON GSM PREDICTIONS.
=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 240000
WARNING 240000.
WARNING VALID 250000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1820 CIMARON (1820) 990 HPA
AT 39.1N 136.2E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 28 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 42.0N 139.8E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 42.2N 146.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 240000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1820 CIMARON (1820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240000UTC 39.1N 136.2E FAIR
MOVE NNE 28KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 250000UTC 42.2N 146.5E 80NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 232100
WARNING 232100.
WARNING VALID 242100.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1820 CIMARON (1820) 990 HPA
AT 37.8N 135.5E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 26 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240900UTC AT 41.4N 138.7E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 242100UTC AT 42.3N 145.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 232100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1820 CIMARON (1820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 232100UTC 37.8N 135.5E FAIR
MOVE N 26KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 242100UTC 42.3N 145.1E 80NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 232100
WARNING ATCG MIL 23W NWP 180823201124
2018082318 23W CIMARON 025 03 010 28 SATL 060
T000 366N 1352E 055 R050 110 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 190 SE QD 140 SW Q
D 140 NW QD
T012 405N 1373E 045 R034 120 NE QD 155 SE QD 160 SW QD 195 NW QD
T024 423N 1418E 035 R034 180 NE QD 170 SE QD 105 SW QD 160 NW QD
T036 426N 1481E 030
AMP
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 025
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 025
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 23W
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 36.6N 135.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 28 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 36.6N 135.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 40.5N 137.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 42.3N 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 42.6N 148.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 37.6N 135.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 196 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF CAMP FUJI, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 28 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2318081512 133N1645E 20
2318081518 132N1631E 20
2318081600 132N1617E 20
2318081606 131N1608E 20
2318081612 127N1593E 20
2318081618 126N1588E 20
2318081700 126N1583E 20
2318081706 127N1581E 20
2318081712 130N1569E 20
2318081718 133N1556E 25
2318081800 137N1547E 30
2318081806 141N1545E 35
2318081812 144N1537E 35
2318081818 147N1529E 40
2318081900 151N1522E 40
2318081906 156N1511E 45
2318081912 160N1505E 55
2318081912 160N1505E 55
2318081918 165N1498E 60
2318081918 165N1498E 60
2318082000 170N1488E 65
2318082000 170N1488E 65
2318082000 170N1488E 65
2318082006 176N1480E 65
2318082006 176N1480E 65
2318082006 176N1480E 65
2318082012 186N1474E 65
2318082012 186N1474E 65
2318082012 186N1474E 65
2318082018 194N1462E 65
2318082018 194N1462E 65
2318082018 194N1462E 65
2318082100 200N1451E 70
2318082100 200N1451E 70
2318082100 200N1451E 70
2318082106 212N1440E 75
2318082106 212N1440E 75
2318082106 212N1440E 75
2318082112 220N1428E 80
2318082112 220N1428E 80
2318082112 220N1428E 80
2318082118 230N1413E 90
2318082118 230N1413E 90
2318082118 230N1413E 90
2318082200 241N1400E 110
2318082200 241N1400E 110
2318082200 241N1400E 110
2318082206 255N1388E 110
2318082206 255N1388E 110
2318082206 255N1388E 110
2318082212 269N1374E 100
2318082212 269N1374E 100
2318082212 269N1374E 100
2318082218 285N1360E 90
2318082218 285N1360E 90
2318082218 285N1360E 90
2318082300 299N1350E 85
2318082300 299N1350E 85
2318082300 299N1350E 85
2318082306 319N1345E 80
2318082306 319N1345E 80
2318082306 319N1345E 80
2318082312 338N1347E 75
2318082312 338N1347E 75
2318082312 338N1347E 75
2318082318 366N1352E 55
2318082318 366N1352E 55


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 025
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 23W
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 36.6N 135.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 28 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 36.6N 135.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 40.5N 137.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 42.3N 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 42.6N 148.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 37.6N 135.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 196 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF CAMP FUJI, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 28 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 22W (SOULIK) WARNINGS (WTPN35 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24W (TWENTYFOUR)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 231800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.24 FOR STS 1820 CIMARON (1820)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS CIMARON IS LOCATED AT 36.4N, 135.1E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LOWER SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM
SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT24. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT24 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 231800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 22
NAME 1820 CIMARON
ANALYSIS
POSITION 231800UTC 36.5N 134.5E
MOVEMENT N 27KT
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 241800UTC 42.3N 141.9E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
48HR
POSITION 251800UTC 43.5N 157.0E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 231800
WARNING 231800.
WARNING VALID 241800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1820 CIMARON (1820) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 985
HPA
AT 36.4N 135.1E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 26 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 40 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 40.8N 137.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 42.5N 144.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 231800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1820 CIMARON (1820) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231800UTC 36.4N 135.1E FAIR
MOVE N 26KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 130NM SOUTH 40NM NORTH
30KT 270NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 241800UTC 42.5N 144.3E 80NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 231500
WARNING 231500.
WARNING VALID 241500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1820 CIMARON (1820) 980 HPA
AT 35.0N 134.7E WESTERN JAPAN MOVING NORTH 20 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 50 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240300UTC AT 39.8N 136.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241500UTC AT 41.9N 142.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 231500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1820 CIMARON (1820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231500UTC 35.0N 134.7E GOOD
MOVE N 20KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 80NM SOUTH 50NM NORTH
30KT 240NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 241500UTC 41.9N 142.1E 80NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 231500
WARNING ATCG MIL 23W NWP 180823140918
2018082312 23W CIMARON 024 02 005 19 SATL RADR SYNP 030
T000 338N 1347E 075 R064 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 125 NE QD 115 SE QD 075 SW Q
D 090 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 210 SE QD 145 SW QD 175 NW QD
T012 383N 1359E 060 R050 095 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 200 SE QD 130 SW Q
D 160 NW QD
T024 411N 1383E 050 R050 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 160 SE QD 125 SW Q
D 135 NW QD
T036 425N 1421E 040 R034 095 NE QD 090 SE QD 120 SW QD 105 NW QD
AMP
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 024
1. TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 33.8N 134.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.8N 134.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 38.3N 135.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 41.1N 138.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 42.5N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 34.9N 135.0E.
TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 133 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 19 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2318081512 133N1645E 20
2318081518 132N1631E 20
2318081600 132N1617E 20
2318081606 131N1608E 20
2318081612 127N1593E 20
2318081618 126N1588E 20
2318081700 126N1583E 20
2318081706 127N1581E 20
2318081712 130N1569E 20
2318081718 133N1556E 25
2318081800 137N1547E 30
2318081806 141N1545E 35
2318081812 144N1537E 35
2318081818 147N1529E 40
2318081900 151N1522E 40
2318081906 156N1511E 45
2318081912 160N1505E 55
2318081912 160N1505E 55
2318081918 165N1498E 60
2318081918 165N1498E 60
2318082000 170N1488E 65
2318082000 170N1488E 65
2318082000 170N1488E 65
2318082006 176N1480E 65
2318082006 176N1480E 65
2318082006 176N1480E 65
2318082012 186N1474E 65
2318082012 186N1474E 65
2318082012 186N1474E 65
2318082018 194N1462E 65
2318082018 194N1462E 65
2318082018 194N1462E 65
2318082100 200N1451E 70
2318082100 200N1451E 70
2318082100 200N1451E 70
2318082106 212N1440E 75
2318082106 212N1440E 75
2318082106 212N1440E 75
2318082112 220N1428E 80
2318082112 220N1428E 80
2318082112 220N1428E 80
2318082118 230N1413E 90
2318082118 230N1413E 90
2318082118 230N1413E 90
2318082200 241N1400E 110
2318082200 241N1400E 110
2318082200 241N1400E 110
2318082206 255N1388E 110
2318082206 255N1388E 110
2318082206 255N1388E 110
2318082212 269N1374E 100
2318082212 269N1374E 100
2318082212 269N1374E 100
2318082218 285N1360E 90
2318082218 285N1360E 90
2318082218 285N1360E 90
2318082300 299N1350E 85
2318082300 299N1350E 85
2318082300 299N1350E 85
2318082306 319N1345E 80
2318082306 319N1345E 80
2318082306 319N1345E 80
2318082312 338N1347E 75
2318082312 338N1347E 75
2318082312 338N1347E 75


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 33.8N 134.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.8N 134.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 38.3N 135.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 41.1N 138.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 42.5N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 34.9N 135.0E.
TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 133 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 19 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z
IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 22W (SOULIK) WARNINGS (WTPN35 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 231200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.23 FOR TY 1820 CIMARON (1820)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY CIMARON IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 33.8N, 134.6E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR
IMAGERY. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LAND AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SURFACE WINDS DATA
ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL
FT24. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, LAND AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT24 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS.
=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 231200
WARNING 231200.
WARNING VALID 241200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1820 CIMARON (1820) 965 HPA
AT 33.8N 134.6E SHIKOKU MOVING NORTH 20 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 40 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 39.0N 135.8E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 41.8N 139.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 231200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1820 CIMARON (1820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231200UTC 33.8N 134.6E GOOD
MOVE N 20KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 60NM EAST 40NM WEST
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 241200UTC 41.8N 139.7E 80NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 230900
WARNING 230900.
WARNING VALID 240900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1820 CIMARON (1820) 960 HPA
AT 32.8N 134.5E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 19 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 232100UTC AT 37.9N 135.3E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240900UTC AT 41.4N 138.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 230900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1820 CIMARON (1820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230900UTC 32.8N 134.5E FAIR
MOVE N 19KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 240900UTC 41.4N 138.9E 80NM 70.
MOVE NE 22KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 250600UTC 42.1N 147.3E 150NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 230900
WARNING ATCG MIL 23W NWP 180823082429
2018082306 23W CIMARON 023 02 350 20 SATL RADR 045
T000 319N 1345E 080 R064 075 NE QD 070 SE QD 035 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 115 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 075 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 210 SE QD 130 SW QD 185 NW QD
T012 362N 1345E 065 R064 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 105 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 065 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 200 SE QD 120 SW QD 145 NW QD
T024 403N 1368E 055 R050 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 160 SE QD 115 SW Q
D 145 NW QD
T036 424N 1399E 045 R034 095 NE QD 090 SE QD 120 SW QD 105 NW QD
T048 435N 1432E 035 R034 075 NE QD 085 SE QD 120 SW QD 075 NW QD
AMP
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 023
1. TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 31.9N 134.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.9N 134.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 36.2N 134.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 40.3N 136.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 42.4N 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 43.5N 143.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 33.0N 134.5E.
TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 188 NM SOUTHEAST OF
IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2318081512 133N1645E 20
2318081518 132N1631E 20
2318081600 132N1617E 20
2318081606 131N1608E 20
2318081612 127N1593E 20
2318081618 126N1588E 20
2318081700 126N1583E 20
2318081706 127N1581E 20
2318081712 130N1569E 20
2318081718 133N1556E 25
2318081800 137N1547E 30
2318081806 141N1545E 35
2318081812 144N1537E 35
2318081818 147N1529E 40
2318081900 151N1522E 40
2318081906 156N1511E 45
2318081912 160N1505E 55
2318081912 160N1505E 55
2318081918 165N1498E 60
2318081918 165N1498E 60
2318082000 170N1488E 65
2318082000 170N1488E 65
2318082000 170N1488E 65
2318082006 176N1480E 65
2318082006 176N1480E 65
2318082006 176N1480E 65
2318082012 186N1474E 65
2318082012 186N1474E 65
2318082012 186N1474E 65
2318082018 194N1462E 65
2318082018 194N1462E 65
2318082018 194N1462E 65
2318082100 200N1451E 70
2318082100 200N1451E 70
2318082100 200N1451E 70
2318082106 212N1440E 75
2318082106 212N1440E 75
2318082106 212N1440E 75
2318082112 220N1428E 80
2318082112 220N1428E 80
2318082112 220N1428E 80
2318082118 230N1413E 90
2318082118 230N1413E 90
2318082118 230N1413E 90
2318082200 241N1400E 110
2318082200 241N1400E 110
2318082200 241N1400E 110
2318082206 255N1388E 110
2318082206 255N1388E 110
2318082206 255N1388E 110
2318082212 269N1374E 100
2318082212 269N1374E 100
2318082212 269N1374E 100
2318082218 285N1360E 90
2318082218 285N1360E 90
2318082218 285N1360E 90
2318082300 299N1350E 85
2318082300 299N1350E 85
2318082300 299N1350E 85
2318082306 319N1345E 80
2318082306 319N1345E 80
2318082306 319N1345E 80


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 31.9N 134.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.9N 134.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 36.2N 134.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 40.3N 136.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 42.4N 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 43.5N 143.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 33.0N 134.5E.
TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 188 NM SOUTHEAST OF
IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 27 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 22W (SOULIK) WARNINGS (WTPN35 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 230600 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.22 FOR TY 1820 CIMARON (1820)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY CIMARON IS LOCATED AT 31.8N, 134.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND RADAR IMAGERY. POSITIONAL
ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, DRY AIR
AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SHORTENING OF A BAND WITH CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND
WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT
JAPAN BY FT06. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT03 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO ITS


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 230600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.22 FOR TY 1820 CIMARON (1820)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY CIMARON IS LOCATED AT 31.8N, 134.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND RADAR IMAGERY. POSITIONAL
ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, DRY AIR
AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SHORTENING OF A BAND WITH CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND
WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT
JAPAN BY FT06. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT03 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO ITS
LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24
DUE TO ITS PRESENCE OVER THE SEA. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN
UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL
TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE JMA INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 230600
WARNING 230600.
WARNING VALID 240600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1820 CIMARON (1820) 955 HPA
AT 31.8N 134.4E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 19 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 36.8N 134.5E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 41.2N 136.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 42.1N 147.3E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 230600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1820 CIMARON (1820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230600UTC 31.8N 134.4E FAIR
MOVE NNW 19KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 240600UTC 41.2N 136.8E 80NM 70.
MOVE NNE 24KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 250600UTC 42.1N 147.3E 150NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 230300
WARNING 230300.
WARNING VALID 240300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1820 CIMARON (1820) 955 HPA
AT 30.9N 134.8E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 19 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231500UTC AT 35.5N 134.2E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240300UTC AT 40.5N 135.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 230300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1820 CIMARON (1820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230300UTC 30.9N 134.8E FAIR
MOVE NNW 19KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 240300UTC 40.5N 135.3E 80NM 70.
MOVE N 25KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 250000UTC 42.8N 142.3E 150NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 230300
WARNING ATCG MIL 23W NWP 180823013610
2018082300 23W CIMARON 022 02 335 17 SATL 020
T000 299N 1350E 085 R064 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 125 NE QD 110 SE QD 065 SW Q
D 095 NW QD R034 245 NE QD 190 SE QD 125 SW QD 185 NW QD
T012 340N 1341E 075 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 105 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 205 SE QD 110 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 386N 1349E 055 R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 180 SE QD 105 SW Q
D 135 NW QD
T036 417N 1368E 045 R034 145 NE QD 165 SE QD 105 SW QD 155 NW QD
T048 436N 1408E 030
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 29.9N 135.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.9N 135.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 34.0N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 38.6N 134.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 41.7N 136.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 43.6N 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 30.9N 134.8E.
TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 302 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 230000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
2318081512 133N1645E 20
2318081518 132N1631E 20
2318081600 132N1617E 20
2318081606 131N1608E 20
2318081612 127N1593E 20
2318081618 126N1588E 20
2318081700 126N1583E 20
2318081706 127N1581E 20
2318081712 130N1569E 20
2318081718 133N1556E 25
2318081800 137N1547E 30
2318081806 141N1545E 35
2318081812 144N1537E 35
2318081818 147N1529E 40
2318081900 151N1522E 40
2318081906 156N1511E 45
2318081912 160N1505E 55
2318081912 160N1505E 55
2318081918 165N1498E 60
2318081918 165N1498E 60
2318082000 170N1488E 65
2318082000 170N1488E 65
2318082000 170N1488E 65
2318082006 176N1480E 65
2318082006 176N1480E 65
2318082006 176N1480E 65
2318082012 186N1474E 65
2318082012 186N1474E 65
2318082012 186N1474E 65
2318082018 194N1462E 65
2318082018 194N1462E 65
2318082018 194N1462E 65
2318082100 200N1451E 70
2318082100 200N1451E 70
2318082100 200N1451E 70
2318082106 212N1440E 75
2318082106 212N1440E 75
2318082106 212N1440E 75
2318082112 220N1428E 80
2318082112 220N1428E 80
2318082112 220N1428E 80
2318082118 230N1413E 90
2318082118 230N1413E 90
2318082118 230N1413E 90
2318082200 241N1400E 110
2318082200 241N1400E 110
2318082200 241N1400E 110
2318082206 255N1388E 110
2318082206 255N1388E 110
2318082206 255N1388E 110
2318082212 269N1374E 100
2318082212 269N1374E 100
2318082212 269N1374E 100
2318082218 284N1359E 90
2318082218 284N1359E 90
2318082218 284N1359E 90
2318082300 299N1350E 85
2318082300 299N1350E 85
2318082300 299N1350E 85


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 29.9N 135.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.9N 135.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 34.0N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 38.6N 134.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 41.7N 136.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 43.6N 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 30.9N 134.8E.
TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 302 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 230000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z
AND 240300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNINGS (WTPN35 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 230000 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.21 FOR TY 1820 CIMARON (1820)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY CIMARON IS LOCATED AT 29.8N, 135.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED TCHP
AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. HOWEVER, THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS IS FAVORABLE FOR
SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
EYE HAS BECOME OBSCURE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN
BY FT12. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT09 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 230000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.21 FOR TY 1820 CIMARON (1820)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY CIMARON IS LOCATED AT 29.8N, 135.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED TCHP
AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. HOWEVER, THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS IS FAVORABLE FOR
SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
EYE HAS BECOME OBSCURE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN
BY FT12. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT09 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT18 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS PRESENCE OVER
THE SEA. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 230000
WARNING 230000.
WARNING VALID 240000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1820 CIMARON (1820) 955 HPA
AT 29.8N 135.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 18 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 33.9N 134.0E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 39.3N 134.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 42.8N 142.3E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 230000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1820 CIMARON (1820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230000UTC 29.8N 135.0E FAIR
MOVE NNW 18KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 240000UTC 39.3N 134.9E 80NM 70.
MOVE N 27KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 250000UTC 42.8N 142.3E 150NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 222100
WARNING 222100.
WARNING VALID 232100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1820 CIMARON (1820) 950 HPA
AT 28.9N 135.4E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 19 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230900UTC AT 32.7N 134.0E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 232100UTC AT 38.0N 134.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 222100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1820 CIMARON (1820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 222100UTC 28.9N 135.4E GOOD
MOVE NW 19KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 300NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 232100UTC 38.0N 134.4E 80NM 70.
MOVE N 27KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 241800UTC 43.7N 139.4E 150NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 222100
WARNING ATCG MIL 23W NWP 180822195359
2018082218 23W CIMARON 021 02 320 20 SATL 015
T000 284N 1359E 090 R064 055 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 095 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 170 SE QD 080 SW QD 150 NW QD
T012 322N 1346E 080 R064 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 025 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 105 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 205 SE QD 110 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 366N 1346E 065 R064 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 015 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 055 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 180 SE QD 105 SW QD 135 NW QD
T036 406N 1363E 045 R034 145 NE QD 165 SE QD 105 SW QD 155 NW QD
T048 430N 1394E 035 R034 105 NE QD 120 SE QD 180 SW QD 165 NW QD
T072 434N 1441E 025
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 28.4N 135.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.4N 135.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 32.2N 134.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 36.6N 134.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 40.6N 136.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 43.0N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 43.4N 144.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 29.4N 135.6E.
TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 343 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF CHICHI JIMA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z,
230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK)
2318081512 133N1645E 20
2318081518 132N1631E 20
2318081600 132N1617E 20
2318081606 131N1608E 20
2318081612 127N1593E 20
2318081618 126N1588E 20
2318081700 126N1583E 20
2318081706 127N1581E 20
2318081712 130N1569E 20
2318081718 133N1556E 25
2318081800 137N1547E 30
2318081806 141N1545E 35
2318081812 144N1537E 35
2318081818 147N1529E 40
2318081900 151N1522E 40
2318081906 156N1511E 45
2318081912 160N1505E 55
2318081912 160N1505E 55
2318081918 165N1498E 60
2318081918 165N1498E 60
2318082000 170N1488E 65
2318082000 170N1488E 65
2318082000 170N1488E 65
2318082006 176N1480E 65
2318082006 176N1480E 65
2318082006 176N1480E 65
2318082012 186N1474E 65
2318082012 186N1474E 65
2318082012 186N1474E 65
2318082018 194N1462E 65
2318082018 194N1462E 65
2318082018 194N1462E 65
2318082100 200N1451E 70
2318082100 200N1451E 70
2318082100 200N1451E 70
2318082106 212N1440E 75
2318082106 212N1440E 75
2318082106 212N1440E 75
2318082112 220N1428E 80
2318082112 220N1428E 80
2318082112 220N1428E 80
2318082118 230N1413E 90
2318082118 230N1413E 90
2318082118 230N1413E 90
2318082200 241N1400E 110
2318082200 241N1400E 110
2318082200 241N1400E 110
2318082206 255N1388E 110
2318082206 255N1388E 110
2318082206 255N1388E 110
2318082212 269N1374E 100
2318082212 269N1374E 100
2318082212 269N1374E 100
2318082218 284N1359E 90
2318082218 284N1359E 90
2318082218 284N1359E 90


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 28.4N 135.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.4N 135.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 32.2N 134.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 36.6N 134.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 40.6N 136.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 43.0N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 43.4N 144.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 29.4N 135.6E.
TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 343 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF CHICHI JIMA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z,
230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK)
WARNINGS (WTPN35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 221800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 18
NAME 1820 CIMARON
ANALYSIS
POSITION 221800UTC 28.4N 136.0E
MOVEMENT NW 19KT
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 231800UTC 37.0N 134.8E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
48HR
POSITION 241800UTC 44.0N 142.1E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 221800 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.20 FOR TY 1820 CIMARON (1820)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY CIMARON IS LOCATED AT 28.4N, 136.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY
IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT
JAPAN BY FT18. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE JMA
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 221800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.20 FOR TY 1820 CIMARON (1820)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY CIMARON IS LOCATED AT 28.4N, 136.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY
IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT
JAPAN BY FT18. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE JMA
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH
LOW SSTS AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 221800
WARNING 221800.
WARNING VALID 231800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1820 CIMARON (1820) 950 HPA
AT 28.4N 136.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 19 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 31.9N 134.3E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 36.9N 134.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 43.7N 139.4E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 221800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1820 CIMARON (1820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221800UTC 28.4N 136.0E GOOD
MOVE NW 19KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 300NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 231800UTC 36.9N 134.1E 80NM 70.
MOVE N 25KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 241800UTC 43.7N 139.4E 150NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 221500
WARNING 221500.
WARNING VALID 231500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1820 CIMARON (1820) 950 HPA
AT 27.5N 136.7E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 19 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230300UTC AT 30.8N 134.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231500UTC AT 35.2N 134.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 221500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1820 CIMARON (1820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221500UTC 27.5N 136.7E GOOD
MOVE NW 19KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 300NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 231500UTC 35.2N 134.0E 60NM 70.
MOVE N 20KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 241200UTC 42.6N 136.6E 150NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 221500
WARNING ATCG MIL 23W NWP 180822141716
2018082212 23W CIMARON 020 02 320 19 SATL 025
T000 269N 1374E 100 R064 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 030 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 085 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 180 SE QD 110 SW QD 150 NW QD
T012 300N 1356E 095 R064 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 025 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 105 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 205 SE QD 110 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 339N 1348E 080 R064 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 015 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 055 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 180 SE QD 105 SW QD 135 NW QD
T036 381N 1355E 065 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 085 SE QD 045 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 165 SE QD 105 SW QD 155 NW QD
T048 414N 1377E 050 R050 035 NE QD 070 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 120 SE QD 180 SW Q
D 165 NW QD
T072 449N 1452E 035 R034 115 NE QD 100 SE QD 160 SW QD 150 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 020
1. TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 26.9N 137.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.9N 137.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 30.0N 135.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 33.9N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 38.1N 135.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 41.4N 137.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 44.9N 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 27.7N 137.0E.
TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2318081512 133N1645E 20
2318081518 132N1631E 20
2318081600 132N1617E 20
2318081606 131N1608E 20
2318081612 127N1593E 20
2318081618 126N1588E 20
2318081700 126N1583E 20
2318081706 127N1581E 20
2318081712 130N1569E 20
2318081718 133N1556E 25
2318081800 137N1547E 30
2318081806 141N1545E 35
2318081812 144N1537E 35
2318081818 147N1529E 40
2318081900 151N1522E 40
2318081906 156N1511E 45
2318081912 160N1505E 55
2318081912 160N1505E 55
2318081918 165N1498E 60
2318081918 165N1498E 60
2318082000 170N1488E 65
2318082000 170N1488E 65
2318082000 170N1488E 65
2318082006 176N1480E 65
2318082006 176N1480E 65
2318082006 176N1480E 65
2318082012 186N1474E 65
2318082012 186N1474E 65
2318082012 186N1474E 65
2318082018 194N1462E 65
2318082018 194N1462E 65
2318082018 194N1462E 65
2318082100 200N1451E 70
2318082100 200N1451E 70
2318082100 200N1451E 70
2318082106 212N1440E 75
2318082106 212N1440E 75
2318082106 212N1440E 75
2318082112 220N1428E 80
2318082112 220N1428E 80
2318082112 220N1428E 80
2318082118 230N1413E 90
2318082118 230N1413E 90
2318082118 230N1413E 90
2318082200 241N1400E 110
2318082200 241N1400E 110
2318082200 241N1400E 110
2318082206 255N1388E 110
2318082206 255N1388E 110
2318082206 255N1388E 110
2318082212 269N1374E 100
2318082212 269N1374E 100
2318082212 269N1374E 100


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 26.9N 137.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.9N 137.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 30.0N 135.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 33.9N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 38.1N 135.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 41.4N 137.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 44.9N 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 27.7N 137.0E.
TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS
32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNINGS (WTPN35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 221200 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.19 FOR TY 1820 CIMARON (1820)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY CIMARON IS LOCATED AT 26.9N, 137.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY
IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT24. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE
TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND INCREASED VWS. THE


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 221200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.19 FOR TY 1820 CIMARON (1820)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY CIMARON IS LOCATED AT 26.9N, 137.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY
IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT24. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE
TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND INCREASED VWS. THE
SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE
JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 221200
WARNING 221200.
WARNING VALID 231200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1820 CIMARON (1820) 950 HPA
AT 26.9N 137.4E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 18 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230000UTC AT 30.0N 134.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 33.9N 133.8E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 42.6N 136.6E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 221200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1820 CIMARON (1820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221200UTC 26.9N 137.4E GOOD
MOVE NW 18KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 300NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 231200UTC 33.9N 133.8E 60NM 70.
MOVE N 20KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 241200UTC 42.6N 136.6E 150NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 220900
WARNING ATCG MIL 23W NWP 180822080259
2018082206 23W CIMARON 019 02 320 18 SATL 025
T000 255N 1388E 110 R064 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 035 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 125 NE QD 115 SE QD 065 SW Q
D 100 NW QD R034 215 NE QD 200 SE QD 120 SW QD 175 NW QD
T012 284N 1365E 105 R064 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 015 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 115 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 225 SE QD 130 SW QD 175 NW QD
T024 319N 1350E 100 R064 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 015 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 055 SW Q
D 065 NW QD R034 205 NE QD 210 SE QD 135 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 361N 1349E 080 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 100 SE QD 035 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 190 SE QD 130 SW QD 135 NW QD
T048 399N 1366E 055 R050 035 NE QD 070 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 155 SE QD 155 SW Q
D 220 NW QD
T072 441N 1450E 040 R034 115 NE QD 100 SE QD 170 SW QD 135 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 019
1. TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 25.5N 138.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.5N 138.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 28.4N 136.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 31.9N 135.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 36.1N 134.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 39.9N 136.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 44.1N 145.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 26.2N 138.2E.
TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 142 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2318081512 133N1645E 20
2318081518 132N1631E 20
2318081600 132N1617E 20
2318081606 131N1608E 20
2318081612 127N1593E 20
2318081618 126N1588E 20
2318081700 126N1583E 20
2318081706 127N1581E 20
2318081712 130N1569E 20
2318081718 133N1556E 25
2318081800 137N1547E 30
2318081806 141N1545E 35
2318081812 144N1537E 35
2318081818 147N1529E 40
2318081900 151N1522E 40
2318081906 156N1511E 45
2318081912 160N1505E 55
2318081912 160N1505E 55
2318081918 165N1498E 60
2318081918 165N1498E 60
2318082000 170N1488E 65
2318082000 170N1488E 65
2318082000 170N1488E 65
2318082006 176N1480E 65
2318082006 176N1480E 65
2318082006 176N1480E 65
2318082012 186N1474E 65
2318082012 186N1474E 65
2318082012 186N1474E 65
2318082018 194N1462E 65
2318082018 194N1462E 65
2318082018 194N1462E 65
2318082100 200N1451E 70
2318082100 200N1451E 70
2318082100 200N1451E 70
2318082106 212N1440E 75
2318082106 212N1440E 75
2318082106 212N1440E 75
2318082112 220N1428E 80
2318082112 220N1428E 80
2318082112 220N1428E 80
2318082118 230N1413E 90
2318082118 230N1413E 90
2318082118 230N1413E 90
2318082200 241N1400E 110
2318082200 241N1400E 110
2318082200 241N1400E 110
2318082206 255N1388E 110
2318082206 255N1388E 110
2318082206 255N1388E 110


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 220900
WARNING 220900.
WARNING VALID 230900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1820 CIMARON (1820) 950 HPA
AT 26.1N 138.2E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 17 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 222100UTC AT 29.0N 135.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230900UTC AT 32.7N 134.2E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 220900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1820 CIMARON (1820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220900UTC 26.1N 138.2E GOOD
MOVE NW 17KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 300NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 230900UTC 32.7N 134.2E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW 19KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 240600UTC 41.0N 135.0E 150NM 70.
MOVE N 24KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 250600UTC 43.6N 146.5E 220NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 220900
WARNING ATCG MIL 23W NWP 180822080259
2018082206 23W CIMARON 019 02 320 18 SATL 025
T000 255N 1388E 110 R064 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 035 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 125 NE QD 115 SE QD 065 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 215 NE QD 200 SE QD 120 SW QD 175 NW QD
T012 284N 1365E 105 R064 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 015 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 115 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 225 SE QD 130 SW QD 175 NW QD
T024 319N 1350E 100 R064 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 015 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 055 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 205 NE QD 210 SE QD 135 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 361N 1349E 080 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 100 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 190 SE QD 130 SW QD 135 NW QD
T048 399N 1366E 055 R050 035 NE QD 070 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 155 SE QD 155 SW QD 220 NW QD
T072 441N 1450E 040 R034 115 NE QD 100 SE QD 170 SW QD 135 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 019
1. TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 25.5N 138.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.5N 138.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 28.4N 136.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 31.9N 135.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 36.1N 134.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 39.9N 136.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 44.1N 145.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 26.2N 138.2E.
TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 142 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2318081512 133N1645E 20
2318081518 132N1631E 20
2318081600 132N1617E 20
2318081606 131N1608E 20
2318081612 127N1593E 20
2318081618 126N1588E 20
2318081700 126N1583E 20
2318081706 127N1581E 20
2318081712 130N1569E 20
2318081718 133N1556E 25
2318081800 137N1547E 30
2318081806 141N1545E 35
2318081812 144N1537E 35
2318081818 147N1529E 40
2318081900 151N1522E 40
2318081906 156N1511E 45
2318081912 160N1505E 55
2318081912 160N1505E 55
2318081918 165N1498E 60
2318081918 165N1498E 60
2318082000 170N1488E 65
2318082000 170N1488E 65
2318082000 170N1488E 65
2318082006 176N1480E 65
2318082006 176N1480E 65
2318082006 176N1480E 65
2318082012 186N1474E 65
2318082012 186N1474E 65
2318082012 186N1474E 65
2318082018 194N1462E 65
2318082018 194N1462E 65
2318082018 194N1462E 65
2318082100 200N1451E 70
2318082100 200N1451E 70
2318082100 200N1451E 70
2318082106 212N1440E 75
2318082106 212N1440E 75
2318082106 212N1440E 75
2318082112 220N1428E 80
2318082112 220N1428E 80
2318082112 220N1428E 80
2318082118 230N1413E 90
2318082118 230N1413E 90
2318082118 230N1413E 90
2318082200 241N1400E 110
2318082200 241N1400E 110
2318082200 241N1400E 110
2318082206 255N1388E 110
2318082206 255N1388E 110
2318082206 255N1388E 110
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 220600 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.18 FOR TY 1820 CIMARON (1820)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY CIMARON IS LOCATED AT 25.4N, 138.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. INFORMATION ON
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE EYE BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. METOP-A/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT48.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE
SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT36. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24
BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL
MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 220600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.18 FOR TY 1820 CIMARON (1820)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY CIMARON IS LOCATED AT 25.4N, 138.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. INFORMATION ON
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE EYE BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. METOP-A/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT48.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE
SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT36. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24
BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL
MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE
JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS.
=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 220600
WARNING 220600.
WARNING VALID 230600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1820 CIMARON (1820) 950 HPA
AT 25.4N 138.9E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 16 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221800UTC AT 28.1N 136.1E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 31.5N 134.4E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 41.0N 135.0E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 43.6N 146.5E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 220600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1820 CIMARON (1820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220600UTC 25.4N 138.9E GOOD
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 300NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 230600UTC 31.5N 134.4E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW 19KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 240600UTC 41.0N 135.0E 150NM 70.
MOVE N 24KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 250600UTC 43.6N 146.5E 220NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 220600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1820 CIMARON (1820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220600UTC 25.4N 138.9E GOOD
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 300NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 230600UTC 31.5N 134.4E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW 19KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 240600UTC 41.0N 135.0E 150NM 70.
MOVE N 24KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 250600UTC 43.6N 146.5E 220NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 220300
WARNING 220300.
WARNING VALID 230300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1820 CIMARON (1820) 950 HPA
AT 24.6N 139.4E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 16 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221500UTC AT 27.2N 136.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230300UTC AT 30.5N 134.6E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 220300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1820 CIMARON (1820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220300UTC 24.6N 139.4E GOOD
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 300NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 230300UTC 30.5N 134.6E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW 19KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 240000UTC 38.8N 134.4E 150NM 70.
MOVE N 23KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 250000UTC 43.4N 140.5E 220NM 70.
MOVE NE 16KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 220300
WARNING ATCG MIL 23W NWP 180822013130
2018082200 23W CIMARON 018 02 315 16 SATL 015
T000 241N 1400E 110 R064 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 030 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 125 NE QD 125 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 100 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 215 SE QD 115 SW QD 180 NW QD
T012 267N 1373E 105 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 125 NE QD 115 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 085 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 240 SE QD 125 SW QD 195 NW QD
T024 299N 1355E 100 R064 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 115 NE QD 110 SE QD 065 SW Q
D 075 NW QD R034 225 NE QD 215 SE QD 125 SW QD 175 NW QD
T036 337N 1348E 090 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 115 SE QD 055 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 205 NE QD 210 SE QD 130 SW QD 135 NW QD
T048 381N 1357E 075 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 045 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 190 SE QD 120 SW QD 135 NW QD
T072 433N 1420E 045 R034 140 NE QD 085 SE QD 150 SW QD 115 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 24.1N 140.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.1N 140.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 26.7N 137.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 29.9N 135.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 33.7N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 38.1N 135.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 43.3N 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 24.8N 139.3E.
TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 82 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 22W
2318081512 133N1645E 20
2318081518 132N1631E 20
2318081600 132N1617E 20
2318081606 131N1608E 20
2318081612 127N1593E 20
2318081618 126N1588E 20
2318081700 126N1583E 20
2318081706 127N1581E 20
2318081712 130N1569E 20
2318081718 133N1556E 25
2318081800 137N1547E 30
2318081806 141N1545E 35
2318081812 144N1537E 35
2318081818 147N1529E 40
2318081900 151N1522E 40
2318081906 156N1511E 45
2318081912 160N1505E 55
2318081912 160N1505E 55
2318081918 165N1498E 60
2318081918 165N1498E 60
2318082000 170N1488E 65
2318082000 170N1488E 65
2318082000 170N1488E 65
2318082006 176N1480E 65
2318082006 176N1480E 65
2318082006 176N1480E 65
2318082012 186N1474E 65
2318082012 186N1474E 65
2318082012 186N1474E 65
2318082018 194N1462E 65
2318082018 194N1462E 65
2318082018 194N1462E 65
2318082100 200N1451E 70
2318082100 200N1451E 70
2318082100 200N1451E 70
2318082106 212N1440E 75
2318082106 212N1440E 75
2318082106 212N1440E 75
2318082112 220N1428E 80
2318082112 220N1428E 80
2318082112 220N1428E 80
2318082118 230N1413E 90
2318082118 230N1413E 90
2318082118 230N1413E 90
2318082200 241N1400E 110
2318082200 241N1400E 110
2318082200 241N1400E 110


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 24.1N 140.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.1N 140.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 26.7N 137.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 29.9N 135.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 33.7N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 38.1N 135.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 43.3N 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 24.8N 139.3E.
TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 82 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 33 FEET.
NEXT
WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON
22W
(SOULIK) WARNINGS (WTPN35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 220000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.17 FOR TY 1820 CIMARON (1820)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY CIMARON IS LOCATED AT 24.2N, 140.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT72. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER
SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS.
=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 220000
WARNING 220000.
WARNING VALID 230000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1820 CIMARON (1820) 955 HPA
AT 24.2N 140.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 16 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 26.8N 137.3E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230000UTC AT 29.8N 135.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 38.8N 134.4E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 43.4N 140.5E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 220000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1820 CIMARON (1820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220000UTC 24.2N 140.0E GOOD
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 300NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 230000UTC 29.8N 135.0E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW 18KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 240000UTC 38.8N 134.4E 150NM 70.
MOVE N 23KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 250000UTC 43.4N 140.5E 220NM 70.
MOVE NE 16KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 260000UTC 44.8N 146.6E 260NM 70.
MOVE ENE 11KT
120HF 270000UTC 44.0N 155.6E 350NM 70.
MOVE E 16KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 220000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1820 CIMARON (1820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220000UTC 24.2N 140.0E GOOD
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 300NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 230000UTC 29.8N 135.0E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW 18KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 240000UTC 38.8N 134.4E 150NM 70.
MOVE N 23KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 250000UTC 43.4N 140.5E 220NM 70.
MOVE NE 16KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 212100
WARNING 212100.
WARNING VALID 222100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1820 CIMARON (1820) 965 HPA
AT 23.5N 140.7E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHWEST 16 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220900UTC AT 26.0N 138.0E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 222100UTC AT 28.8N 135.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 212100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1820 CIMARON (1820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 212100UTC 23.5N 140.7E GOOD
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 300NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 222100UTC 28.8N 135.5E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 18KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 231800UTC 36.0N 133.9E 110NM 70.
MOVE N 20KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 241800UTC 43.7N 137.7E 220NM 70.
MOVE NNE 21KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 212100
WARNING ATCG MIL 23W NWP 180821193704
2018082118 23W CIMARON 017 02 305 17 SATL 010
T000 230N 1413E 090 R064 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 025 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 125 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 095 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 210 SE QD 100 SW QD 175 NW QD
T012 255N 1386E 100 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 125 NE QD 115 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 085 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 240 SE QD 125 SW QD 195 NW QD
T024 283N 1363E 100 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 010 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 115 NE QD 110 SE QD 055 SW Q
D 075 NW QD R034 225 NE QD 215 SE QD 125 SW QD 175 NW QD
T036 319N 1348E 090 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 015 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 115 SE QD 055 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 205 NE QD 210 SE QD 130 SW QD 135 NW QD
T048 359N 1346E 075 R064 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 100 SE QD 035 SW Q
D 035 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 190 SE QD 120 SW QD 135 NW QD
T072 427N 1382E 055 R050 045 NE QD 070 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 085 SE QD 150 SW Q
D 115 NW QD
T096 435N 1481E 040 R034 070 NE QD 150 SE QD 100 SW QD 030 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 23.0N 141.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.0N 141.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 25.5N 138.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 28.3N 136.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 31.9N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 35.9N 134.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 42.7N 138.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 43.5N 148.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 23.6N 140.6E.
TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 108 NM SOUTH OF IWO
TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z. REFER TO
UPDATES.//
2318081512 133N1645E 20
2318081518 132N1631E 20
2318081600 132N1617E 20
2318081606 131N1608E 20
2318081612 127N1593E 20
2318081618 126N1588E 20
2318081700 126N1583E 20
2318081706 127N1581E 20
2318081712 130N1569E 20
2318081718 133N1556E 25
2318081800 137N1547E 30
2318081806 141N1545E 35
2318081812 144N1537E 35
2318081818 147N1529E 40
2318081900 151N1522E 40
2318081906 156N1511E 45
2318081912 160N1505E 55
2318081912 160N1505E 55
2318081918 165N1498E 60
2318081918 165N1498E 60
2318082000 170N1488E 65
2318082000 170N1488E 65
2318082000 170N1488E 65
2318082006 176N1480E 65
2318082006 176N1480E 65
2318082006 176N1480E 65
2318082012 186N1474E 65
2318082012 186N1474E 65
2318082012 186N1474E 65
2318082018 194N1462E 65
2318082018 194N1462E 65
2318082018 194N1462E 65
2318082100 200N1451E 70
2318082100 200N1451E 70
2318082100 200N1451E 70
2318082106 212N1440E 75
2318082106 212N1440E 75
2318082106 212N1440E 75
2318082112 220N1428E 80
2318082112 220N1428E 80
2318082112 220N1428E 80
2318082118 230N1413E 90
2318082118 230N1413E 90
2318082118 230N1413E 90


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 23.0N 141.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.0N 141.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 25.5N 138.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 28.3N 136.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 31.9N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 35.9N 134.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 42.7N 138.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 43.5N 148.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 23.6N 140.6E.
TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 108 NM SOUTH OF IWO
TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z. REFER TO
TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNINGS (WTPN35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 211800 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.16 FOR TY 1820 CIMARON (1820)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY CIMARON IS LOCATED AT 23.1N, 141.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT72.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MOVE EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT48. THE JMA
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 211800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.16 FOR TY 1820 CIMARON (1820)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY CIMARON IS LOCATED AT 23.1N, 141.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT72.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MOVE EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT48. THE JMA
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL
MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS
LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND
INCREASED VWS. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE
DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 211800
WARNING 211800.
WARNING VALID 221800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1820 CIMARON (1820) 965 HPA
AT 23.1N 141.3E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHWEST 17 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220600UTC AT 25.5N 138.7E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221800UTC AT 28.2N 136.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 36.0N 133.9E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 43.7N 137.7E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 211800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1820 CIMARON (1820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211800UTC 23.1N 141.3E GOOD
MOVE NW 17KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 300NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 221800UTC 28.2N 136.0E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 18KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 231800UTC 36.0N 133.9E 110NM 70.
MOVE N 20KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 241800UTC 43.7N 137.7E 220NM 70.
MOVE NNE 21KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 251800UTC 46.7N 144.7E 260NM 70.
MOVE ENE 14KT
120HF 261800UTC 47.0N 152.9E 350NM 70.
MOVE E 14KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 211800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1820 CIMARON (1820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211800UTC 23.1N 141.3E GOOD
MOVE NW 17KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 300NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 221800UTC 28.2N 136.0E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 18KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 231800UTC 36.0N 133.9E 110NM 70.
MOVE N 20KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 241800UTC 43.7N 137.7E 220NM 70.
MOVE NNE 21KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 211500
WARNING 211500.
WARNING VALID 221500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1820 CIMARON (1820) 970 HPA
AT 22.5N 142.1E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHWEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220300UTC AT 24.8N 139.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221500UTC AT 27.4N 136.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 211500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1820 CIMARON (1820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211500UTC 22.5N 142.1E GOOD
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 300NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 221500UTC 27.4N 136.7E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 18KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 231200UTC 33.3N 133.7E 110NM 70.
MOVE NNW 19KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 241200UTC 41.9N 137.0E 220NM 70.
MOVE NNE 22KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 211500
WARNING ATCG MIL 23W NWP 180821134631
2018082112 23W CIMARON 016 02 305 14 SATL 025
T000 220N 1428E 080 R064 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 025 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 115 SE QD 065 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 230 SE QD 130 SW QD 190 NW QD
T012 243N 1402E 085 R064 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 010 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 115 NE QD 105 SE QD 055 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 240 SE QD 120 SW QD 190 NW QD
T024 270N 1377E 090 R064 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 045 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 220 SE QD 115 SW QD 165 NW QD
T036 303N 1356E 085 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 100 SE QD 045 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 215 NE QD 205 SE QD 120 SW QD 135 NW QD
T048 342N 1348E 075 R064 035 NE QD 060 SE QD 005 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 095 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 180 SE QD 125 SW QD 115 NW QD
T072 416N 1385E 050 R050 045 NE QD 070 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 090 SE QD 125 SW QD 135 NW QD
T096 421N 1483E 035 R034 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 016
1. TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 22.0N 142.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.0N 142.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 24.3N 140.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 27.0N 137.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 30.3N 135.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 34.2N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 41.6N 138.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 42.1N 148.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 22.6N 142.1E.
TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 187 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2318081512 133N1645E 20
2318081518 132N1631E 20
2318081600 132N1617E 20
2318081606 131N1608E 20
2318081612 127N1593E 20
2318081618 126N1588E 20
2318081700 126N1583E 20
2318081706 127N1581E 20
2318081712 130N1569E 20
2318081718 133N1556E 25
2318081800 137N1547E 30
2318081806 141N1545E 35
2318081812 144N1537E 35
2318081818 147N1529E 40
2318081900 151N1522E 40
2318081906 156N1511E 45
2318081912 160N1505E 55
2318081912 160N1505E 55
2318081918 165N1498E 60
2318081918 165N1498E 60
2318082000 170N1488E 65
2318082000 170N1488E 65
2318082000 170N1488E 65
2318082006 176N1480E 65
2318082006 176N1480E 65
2318082006 176N1480E 65
2318082012 186N1474E 65
2318082012 186N1474E 65
2318082012 186N1474E 65
2318082018 194N1462E 65
2318082018 194N1462E 65
2318082018 194N1462E 65
2318082100 200N1451E 70
2318082100 200N1451E 70
2318082100 200N1451E 70
2318082106 212N1440E 75
2318082106 212N1440E 75
2318082106 212N1440E 75
2318082112 220N1428E 80
2318082112 220N1428E 80
2318082112 220N1428E 80
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 22.0N 142.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.0N 142.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 24.3N 140.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 27.0N 137.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 30.3N 135.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 34.2N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 41.6N 138.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 42.1N 148.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 22.6N 142.1E.
TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 187 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS
29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNINGS (WTPN35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 211200 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR TY 1820 CIMARON (1820)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY CIMARON IS LOCATED AT 21.9N, 142.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN
ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F16/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MOVE EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT60. THE JMA
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 211200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR TY 1820 CIMARON (1820)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY CIMARON IS LOCATED AT 21.9N, 142.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN
ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F16/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MOVE EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT60. THE JMA
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL
MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE JMA INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 211200
WARNING 211200.
WARNING VALID 221200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1820 CIMARON (1820) 970 HPA
AT 21.9N 142.8E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220000UTC AT 24.0N 140.3E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 26.6N 137.4E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 33.3N 133.7E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 41.9N 137.0E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 211200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1820 CIMARON (1820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211200UTC 21.9N 142.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 300NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 221200UTC 26.6N 137.4E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 18KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 231200UTC 33.3N 133.7E 110NM 70.
MOVE NNW 19KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 241200UTC 41.9N 137.0E 220NM 70.
MOVE NNE 22KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 251200UTC 46.3N 142.3E 260NM 70.
MOVE NE 14KT
120HF 261200UTC 47.4N 151.2E 350NM 70.
MOVE E 15KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 211200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1820 CIMARON (1820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211200UTC 21.9N 142.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 300NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 221200UTC 26.6N 137.4E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 18KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 231200UTC 33.3N 133.7E 110NM 70.
MOVE NNW 19KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 241200UTC 41.9N 137.0E 220NM 70.
MOVE NNE 22KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 210900
WARNING 210900.
WARNING VALID 220900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1820 CIMARON (1820) 970 HPA
AT 21.6N 143.3E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHWEST 17 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 212100UTC AT 23.5N 140.7E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220900UTC AT 26.1N 138.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 210900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1820 CIMARON (1820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210900UTC 21.6N 143.3E FAIR
MOVE NW 17KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 300NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 220900UTC 26.1N 138.0E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 18KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 230600UTC 31.5N 133.9E 110NM 70.
MOVE NNW 19KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 240600UTC 40.5N 134.9E 220NM 70.
MOVE N 23KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 210600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR TY 1820 CIMARON (1820)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY CIMARON IS LOCATED AT 21.2N, 144.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
APPEARANCE OF AN EYE. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48
BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL
MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND LAND. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS.
=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 210600
WARNING 210600.
WARNING VALID 220600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1820 CIMARON (1820) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 970
HPA
AT 21.2N 144.1E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHWEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211800UTC AT 23.0N 141.4E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220600UTC AT 25.4N 138.8E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 31.5N 133.9E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 40.5N 134.9E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 210600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1820 CIMARON (1820) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210600UTC 21.2N 144.1E FAIR
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 300NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 220600UTC 25.4N 138.8E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 17KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 230600UTC 31.5N 133.9E 110NM 70.
MOVE NNW 19KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 240600UTC 40.5N 134.9E 220NM 70.
MOVE N 23KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 250600UTC 45.7N 139.3E 260NM 70.
MOVE NNE 15KT
120HF 260600UTC 47.1N 147.0E 350NM 70.
MOVE ENE 14KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 210600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1820 CIMARON (1820) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210600UTC 21.2N 144.1E FAIR
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 300NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 220600UTC 25.4N 138.8E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 17KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 230600UTC 31.5N 133.9E 110NM 70.
MOVE NNW 19KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 240600UTC 40.5N 134.9E 220NM 70.
MOVE N 23KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 210300
WARNING 210300.
WARNING VALID 220300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1820 CIMARON (1820) 980 HPA
AT 20.5N 144.7E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHWEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211500UTC AT 22.2N 142.0E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220300UTC AT 24.4N 139.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 210300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1820 CIMARON (1820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210300UTC 20.5N 144.7E FAIR
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 300NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 220300UTC 24.4N 139.3E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 17KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 230000UTC 29.5N 134.5E 110NM 70.
MOVE NW 19KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 240000UTC 37.8N 133.5E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 21KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 210300
WARNING ATCG MIL 23W NWP 180821013048
2018082100 23W CIMARON 014 02 300 12 SATL 040
T000 200N 1451E 065 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 095 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 075 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD 085 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 219N 1426E 070 R064 065 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 125 NE QD 115 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 250 SE QD 115 SW QD 190 NW QD
T024 241N 1400E 080 R064 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 055 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 235 NE QD 245 SE QD 120 SW QD 180 NW QD
T036 267N 1375E 085 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 105 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 225 NE QD 215 SE QD 115 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 302N 1353E 080 R064 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 045 SW Q
D 065 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 205 SE QD 115 SW QD 140 NW QD
T072 379N 1353E 060 R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 170 SE QD 175 SW Q
D 145 NW QD
T096 429N 1421E 040 R034 085 NE QD 120 SE QD 125 SW QD 055 NW QD
T120 436N 1531E 025
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 20.0N 145.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 145.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 21.9N 142.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 24.1N 140.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 26.7N 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 30.2N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 37.9N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 42.9N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 43.6N 153.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 20.5N 144.5E.
TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN, CNMI, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON
UPDATES.//
2318081512 133N1645E 20
2318081518 132N1631E 20
2318081600 132N1617E 20
2318081606 131N1608E 20
2318081612 127N1593E 20
2318081618 126N1588E 20
2318081700 126N1583E 20
2318081706 127N1581E 20
2318081712 130N1569E 20
2318081718 133N1556E 25
2318081800 137N1547E 30
2318081806 141N1545E 35
2318081812 144N1537E 35
2318081818 147N1529E 40
2318081900 151N1522E 40
2318081906 156N1511E 45
2318081912 160N1505E 55
2318081912 160N1505E 55
2318081918 165N1498E 60
2318081918 165N1498E 60
2318082000 170N1488E 65
2318082000 170N1488E 65
2318082000 170N1488E 65
2318082006 176N1480E 65
2318082006 176N1480E 65
2318082006 176N1480E 65
2318082012 186N1474E 65
2318082012 186N1474E 65
2318082012 186N1474E 65
2318082018 194N1462E 65
2318082018 194N1462E 65
2318082018 194N1462E 65
2318082100 200N1451E 65
2318082100 200N1451E 65
2318082100 200N1451E 65


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 20.0N 145.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 145.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 21.9N 142.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 24.1N 140.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 26.7N 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 30.2N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 37.9N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 42.9N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 43.6N 153.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 20.5N 144.5E.
TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN, CNMI, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON
22W (SOULIK) WARNINGS (WTPN35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 210000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR STS 1820 CIMARON (1820)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS CIMARON IS LOCATED AT 20.0N, 145.1E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS
FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
ELONGATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC.
DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE
JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH REDUCED TCHP AND LAND. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS.
=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 210000
WARNING 210000.
WARNING VALID 220000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1820 CIMARON (1820) 980 HPA
AT 20.0N 145.1E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHWEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211200UTC AT 21.7N 142.5E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220000UTC AT 23.7N 139.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230000UTC AT 29.5N 134.5E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 37.8N 133.5E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 210000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1820 CIMARON (1820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210000UTC 20.0N 145.1E FAIR
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 300NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 220000UTC 23.7N 139.7E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 230000UTC 29.5N 134.5E 110NM 70.
MOVE NW 19KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 240000UTC 37.8N 133.5E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 21KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 250000UTC 44.5N 137.0E 260NM 70.
MOVE NNE 18KT
120HF 260000UTC 45.1N 148.8E 350NM 70.
MOVE E 21KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 210000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1820 CIMARON (1820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210000UTC 20.0N 145.1E FAIR
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 300NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 220000UTC 23.7N 139.7E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 230000UTC 29.5N 134.5E 110NM 70.
MOVE NW 19KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 240000UTC 37.8N 133.5E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 21KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 202100
WARNING 202100.
WARNING VALID 212100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1820 CIMARON (1820) 985 HPA
AT 19.5N 145.8E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHWEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210900UTC AT 21.3N 143.3E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 212100UTC AT 23.2N 140.6E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 202100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1820 CIMARON (1820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 202100UTC 19.5N 145.8E FAIR
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 300NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 212100UTC 23.2N 140.6E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 221800UTC 27.6N 135.9E 110NM 70.
MOVE NW 17KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 231800UTC 34.4N 133.5E 140NM 70.
MOVE NNW 18KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 202100
WARNING ATCG MIL 23W NWP 180820200028
2018082018 23W CIMARON 013 02 310 14 SATL 045
T000 195N 1462E 065 R064 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 035 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 065 SW Q
D 095 NW QD R034 215 NE QD 225 SE QD 125 SW QD 175 NW QD
T012 213N 1438E 070 R064 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 020 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 125 NE QD 115 SE QD 045 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 245 SE QD 125 SW QD 190 NW QD
T024 232N 1412E 080 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 125 NE QD 115 SE QD 055 SW Q
D 075 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 265 SE QD 130 SW QD 185 NW QD
T036 256N 1386E 085 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 025 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 115 SE QD 055 SW Q
D 075 NW QD R034 235 NE QD 235 SE QD 130 SW QD 165 NW QD
T048 288N 1361E 080 R064 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 125 SE QD 055 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 225 NE QD 215 SE QD 130 SW QD 155 NW QD
T072 364N 1344E 065 R064 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 095 SW Q
D 055 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 165 SE QD 200 SW QD 165 NW QD
T096 425N 1394E 040 R034 040 NE QD 125 SE QD 170 SW QD 045 NW QD
T120 436N 1504E 025
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 19.5N 146.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 146.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 21.3N 143.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 23.2N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 25.6N 138.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 28.8N 136.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 36.4N 134.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 42.5N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 43.6N 150.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 145.6E.
TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 51 NM NORTHEAST OF
AGRIHAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z. REFER TO
UPDATES.//
2318081512 133N1645E 20
2318081518 132N1631E 20
2318081600 132N1617E 20
2318081606 131N1608E 20
2318081612 127N1593E 20
2318081618 126N1588E 20
2318081700 126N1583E 20
2318081706 127N1581E 20
2318081712 130N1569E 20
2318081718 133N1556E 25
2318081800 137N1547E 30
2318081806 141N1545E 35
2318081812 144N1537E 35
2318081818 147N1529E 40
2318081900 151N1522E 40
2318081906 156N1511E 45
2318081912 160N1505E 55
2318081912 160N1505E 55
2318081918 165N1498E 60
2318081918 165N1498E 60
2318082000 170N1488E 65
2318082000 170N1488E 65
2318082000 170N1488E 65
2318082006 176N1480E 65
2318082006 176N1480E 65
2318082006 176N1480E 65
2318082012 186N1474E 65
2318082012 186N1474E 65
2318082012 186N1474E 65
2318082018 195N1462E 65
2318082018 195N1462E 65
2318082018 195N1462E 65


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 19.5N 146.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 146.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 21.3N 143.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 23.2N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
265 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 25.6N 138.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 28.8N 136.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 36.4N 134.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 42.5N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 43.6N 150.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 145.6E.
TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 51 NM NORTHEAST OF
AGRIHAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z. REFER TO
TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNINGS (WTPN35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 201800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR STS 1820 CIMARON (1820)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS CIMARON IS LOCATED AT 18.9N, 146.5E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT96 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE
DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 201800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 10
NAME 1820 CIMARON
ANALYSIS
POSITION 201800UTC 19.1N 146.5E
MOVEMENT NNW 13KT
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 211800UTC 22.8N 141.4E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
48HR
POSITION 221800UTC 28.2N 136.0E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
72HR
POSITION 231800UTC 35.1N 133.9E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
96HR
POSITION 241800UTC 41.4N 139.6E WITHIN 180NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
120HR
POSITION 251800UTC 45.3N 149.3E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 33KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 201800
WARNING 201800.
WARNING VALID 211800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1820 CIMARON (1820) 985 HPA
AT 18.9N 146.5E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 20.7N 143.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211800UTC AT 22.6N 141.2E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221800UTC AT 27.6N 135.9E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 34.4N 133.5E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 201800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1820 CIMARON (1820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201800UTC 18.9N 146.5E FAIR
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 300NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 211800UTC 22.6N 141.2E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 221800UTC 27.6N 135.9E 110NM 70.
MOVE NW 17KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 231800UTC 34.4N 133.5E 140NM 70.
MOVE NNW 18KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
96HF 241800UTC 41.4N 136.0E 240NM 70.
MOVE N 19KT
120HF 251800UTC 43.5N 146.9E 375NM 70.
MOVE ENE 21KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 201800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1820 CIMARON (1820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201800UTC 18.9N 146.5E FAIR
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 300NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 211800UTC 22.6N 141.2E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 221800UTC 27.6N 135.9E 110NM 70.
MOVE NW 17KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 231800UTC 34.4N 133.5E 140NM 70.
MOVE NNW 18KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 201500
WARNING 201500.
WARNING VALID 211500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1820 CIMARON (1820) 985 HPA
AT 18.4N 147.0E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210300UTC AT 20.1N 145.0E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211500UTC AT 21.8N 142.4E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 201500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1820 CIMARON (1820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201500UTC 18.4N 147.0E FAIR
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 300NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 211500UTC 21.8N 142.4E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 221200UTC 26.2N 137.3E 110NM 70.
MOVE NW 17KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 231200UTC 32.5N 133.9E 140NM 70.
MOVE NNW 17KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 201500
WARNING ATCG MIL 23W NWP 180820134548
2018082012 23W CIMARON 012 02 335 11 SATL 050
T000 186N 1475E 065 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 000 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 065 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 160 SE QD 180 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 202N 1454E 075 R064 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 025 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 205 SE QD 160 SW QD 155 NW QD
T024 220N 1431E 080 R064 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 115 NE QD 110 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 225 SE QD 155 SW QD 180 NW QD
T036 243N 1407E 085 R064 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 115 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 225 NE QD 225 SE QD 160 SW QD 170 NW QD
T048 271N 1381E 080 R064 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 020 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 115 NE QD 105 SE QD 055 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 215 NE QD 195 SE QD 155 SW QD 145 NW QD
T072 341N 1352E 065 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 095 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 055 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 170 SE QD 165 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 411N 1388E 040 R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 130 SW QD 075 NW QD
T120 445N 1468E 030
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 012
1. TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 18.6N 147.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6N 147.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 20.2N 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 22.0N 143.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 24.3N 140.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 27.1N 138.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 34.1N 135.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 41.1N 138.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 44.5N 146.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 147.0E.
TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 101 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PAGAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2318081512 133N1645E 20
2318081518 132N1631E 20
2318081600 132N1617E 20
2318081606 131N1608E 20
2318081612 127N1593E 20
2318081618 126N1588E 20
2318081700 126N1583E 20
2318081706 127N1581E 20
2318081712 130N1569E 20
2318081718 133N1556E 25
2318081800 137N1547E 30
2318081806 141N1545E 35
2318081812 144N1537E 35
2318081818 147N1529E 40
2318081900 151N1522E 40
2318081906 156N1511E 45
2318081912 160N1505E 55
2318081912 160N1505E 55
2318081918 165N1498E 60
2318081918 165N1498E 60
2318082000 170N1488E 65
2318082000 170N1488E 65
2318082000 170N1488E 65
2318082006 176N1480E 65
2318082006 176N1480E 65
2318082006 176N1480E 65
2318082012 186N1475E 65
2318082012 186N1475E 65
2318082012 186N1475E 65


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 18.6N 147.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6N 147.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 20.2N 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 22.0N 143.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 24.3N 140.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 27.1N 138.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 34.1N 135.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 41.1N 138.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 44.5N 146.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 147.0E.
TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 101 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PAGAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNINGS (WTPN35 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 201200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR STS 1820 CIMARON (1820)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS CIMARON IS LOCATED AT 18.0N, 147.3E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. INFORMATION ON
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL
FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT96 BUT LOW THEREAFTER
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE JMA
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 201200
WARNING 201200.
WARNING VALID 211200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1820 CIMARON (1820) 985 HPA
AT 18.0N 147.3E MARIANAS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 19.5N 145.5E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211200UTC AT 21.5N 142.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 26.2N 137.3E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 32.5N 133.9E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 201200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1820 CIMARON (1820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201200UTC 18.0N 147.3E FAIR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 211200UTC 21.5N 142.7E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 221200UTC 26.2N 137.3E 110NM 70.
MOVE NW 17KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 231200UTC 32.5N 133.9E 140NM 70.
MOVE NNW 17KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 241200UTC 40.1N 135.0E 240NM 70.
MOVE N 19KT
120HF 251200UTC 44.4N 144.8E 375NM 70.
MOVE ENE 21KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 201200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1820 CIMARON (1820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201200UTC 18.0N 147.3E FAIR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 211200UTC 21.5N 142.7E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 221200UTC 26.2N 137.3E 110NM 70.
MOVE NW 17KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 231200UTC 32.5N 133.9E 140NM 70.
MOVE NNW 17KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 200900
WARNING 200900.
WARNING VALID 210900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1820 CIMARON (1820) 985 HPA
AT 17.6N 147.7E MARIANAS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 202100UTC AT 18.9N 145.8E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210900UTC AT 21.0N 143.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 200900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1820 CIMARON (1820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200900UTC 17.6N 147.7E FAIR
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 210900UTC 21.0N 143.3E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 220600UTC 24.6N 139.2E 110NM 70.
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 230600UTC 31.2N 134.5E 140NM 70.
MOVE NNW 19KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 200900
WARNING ATCG MIL 23W NWP 180820080932
2018082006 23W CIMARON 011 02 310 12 SATL 040
T000 178N 1478E 065 R064 035 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 075 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 065 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 170 SE QD 185 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 192N 1458E 070 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 085 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 065 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 209N 1436E 075 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 105 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 065 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 220 SE QD 150 SW QD 175 NW QD
T036 228N 1412E 080 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 240 SE QD 160 SW QD 175 NW QD
T048 255N 1387E 080 R064 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 020 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 095 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 075 NW QD R034 215 NE QD 215 SE QD 155 SW QD 155 NW QD
T072 319N 1348E 070 R064 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 100 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 190 SE QD 150 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 397N 1364E 050 R050 035 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 105 SE QD 150 SW Q
D 080 NW QD
T120 451N 1428E 030
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 011
1. TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 17.8N 147.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 147.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 19.2N 145.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 20.9N 143.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 22.8N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 25.5N 138.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 31.9N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 39.7N 136.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 45.1N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 147.3E.
TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM EAST OF
ALAMAGAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2318081512 133N1645E 20
2318081518 132N1631E 20
2318081600 132N1617E 20
2318081606 131N1608E 20
2318081612 127N1593E 20
2318081618 126N1588E 20
2318081700 126N1583E 20
2318081706 127N1581E 20
2318081712 130N1569E 20
2318081718 133N1556E 25
2318081800 137N1547E 30
2318081806 141N1545E 35
2318081812 144N1537E 35
2318081818 147N1529E 40
2318081900 151N1522E 40
2318081906 156N1511E 45
2318081912 160N1505E 55
2318081912 160N1505E 55
2318081918 165N1498E 60
2318081918 165N1498E 60
2318082000 170N1488E 65
2318082000 170N1488E 65
2318082000 170N1488E 65
2318082006 178N1478E 65
2318082006 178N1478E 65
2318082006 178N1478E 65


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 17.8N 147.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 147.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 19.2N 145.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 20.9N 143.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 22.8N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 25.5N 138.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 31.9N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 39.7N 136.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 45.1N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 147.3E.
TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM EAST OF
ALAMAGAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNINGS (WTPN35 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 200600 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR STS 1820 CIMARON (1820)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS CIMARON IS LOCATED AT 17.4N, 148.1E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 200600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR STS 1820 CIMARON (1820)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS CIMARON IS LOCATED AT 17.4N, 148.1E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND
GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 200600
WARNING 200600.
WARNING VALID 210600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1820 CIMARON (1820) 985 HPA
AT 17.4N 148.1E MARIANAS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 18.5N 146.3E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 20.2N 144.4E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220600UTC AT 24.6N 139.2E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 31.2N 134.5E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 200600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1820 CIMARON (1820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200600UTC 17.4N 148.1E FAIR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 210600UTC 20.2N 144.4E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 220600UTC 24.6N 139.2E 110NM 70.
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 230600UTC 31.2N 134.5E 140NM 70.
MOVE NNW 19KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 240600UTC 39.2N 135.4E 240NM 70.
MOVE N 20KT
120HF 250600UTC 44.3N 144.4E 375NM 70.
MOVE NE 21KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 200600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1820 CIMARON (1820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200600UTC 17.4N 148.1E FAIR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 210600UTC 20.2N 144.4E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 220600UTC 24.6N 139.2E 110NM 70.
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 230600UTC 31.2N 134.5E 140NM 70.
MOVE NNW 19KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 200300
WARNING ATCG MIL 23W NWP 180820020241
2018082000 23W CIMARON 010 02 300 06 SATL 060
T000 170N 1489E 065 R064 015 NE QD 025 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 095 SE QD 105 SW Q
D 055 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 175 SE QD 190 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 182N 1472E 075 R064 040 NE QD 025 SE QD 010 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 110 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 055 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 235 SE QD 205 SW QD 155 NW QD
T024 198N 1453E 080 R064 045 NE QD 035 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 105 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 240 SE QD 160 SW QD 185 NW QD
T036 216N 1430E 085 R064 060 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 250 SE QD 155 SW QD 190 NW QD
T048 239N 1403E 085 R064 065 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 075 SW Q
D 075 NW QD R034 225 NE QD 235 SE QD 165 SW QD 185 NW QD
T072 296N 1355E 075 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 015 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 105 SE QD 065 SW Q
D 065 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 215 SE QD 150 SW QD 135 NW QD
T096 381N 1355E 065 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW Q
D 055 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 165 SE QD 155 SW QD 165 NW QD
T120 445N 1419E 040 R034 145 NE QD 145 SE QD 190 SW QD 085 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 010
1. TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 010
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 23W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 17.0N 148.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 148.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 18.2N 147.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.8N 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 21.6N 143.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 23.9N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 29.6N 135.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 38.1N 135.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 44.5N 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 148.5E.
TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 209 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2318081512 133N1645E 20
2318081518 132N1631E 20
2318081600 132N1617E 20
2318081606 131N1608E 20
2318081612 127N1593E 20
2318081618 126N1588E 20
2318081700 126N1583E 20
2318081706 127N1581E 20
2318081712 130N1569E 20
2318081718 133N1556E 25
2318081800 137N1547E 30
2318081806 141N1545E 35
2318081812 144N1537E 35
2318081818 147N1529E 40
2318081900 151N1522E 40
2318081906 156N1511E 45
2318081912 160N1505E 55
2318081912 160N1505E 55
2318081918 167N1495E 60
2318081918 167N1495E 60
2318082000 170N1489E 65
2318082000 170N1489E 65
2318082000 170N1489E 65


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 192100
WARNING ATCG MIL 23W NWP 180819200159
2018081918 23W CIMARON 009 02 305 12 SATL 060
T000 167N 1495E 060 R050 065 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 170 SE QD 195 SW Q
D 105 NW QD
T012 179N 1476E 070 R064 045 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 105 SE QD 065 SW Q
D 045 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 220 SE QD 210 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 195N 1457E 075 R064 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 015 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 055 NW QD R034 205 NE QD 245 SE QD 170 SW QD 170 NW QD
T036 211N 1437E 080 R064 055 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 105 SE QD 075 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 215 NE QD 260 SE QD 150 SW QD 185 NW QD
T048 232N 1413E 080 R064 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 115 SE QD 075 SW Q
D 075 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 250 SE QD 160 SW QD 190 NW QD
T072 285N 1363E 075 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 065 SW Q
D 055 NW QD R034 205 NE QD 215 SE QD 135 SW QD 145 NW QD
T096 353N 1350E 065 R064 010 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 025 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 418N 1394E 040 R034 155 NE QD 155 SE QD 140 SW QD 160 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 16.7N 149.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 149.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 17.9N 147.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 19.5N 145.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 21.1N 143.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 23.2N 141.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 28.5N 136.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 35.3N 135.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 41.8N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 17.0N 149.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 232 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2318081512 133N1645E 20
2318081518 132N1631E 20
2318081600 132N1617E 20
2318081606 131N1608E 20
2318081612 127N1593E 20
2318081618 126N1588E 20
2318081700 126N1583E 20
2318081706 127N1581E 20
2318081712 130N1569E 20
2318081718 133N1556E 25
2318081800 137N1547E 30
2318081806 141N1545E 35
2318081812 144N1537E 35
2318081818 147N1529E 40
2318081900 151N1522E 40
2318081906 156N1511E 45
2318081912 160N1505E 55
2318081912 160N1505E 55
2318081918 167N1495E 60
2318081918 167N1495E 60


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 010
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 23W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 17.0N 148.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 148.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 18.2N 147.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.8N 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 21.6N 143.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 23.9N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 29.6N 135.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 38.1N 135.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 44.5N 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 148.5E.
TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 209 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z
IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNINGS (WTPN35 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 16.7N 149.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 149.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 17.9N 147.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 19.5N 145.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 21.1N 143.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 23.2N 141.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 28.5N 136.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 35.3N 135.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 41.8N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 17.0N 149.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 232 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 21
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNINGS (WTPN35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 200000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 7
NAME 1820 CIMARON
ANALYSIS
POSITION 200000UTC 16.9N 149.5E
MOVEMENT NW 3KT
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 210000UTC 20.6N 144.8E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
48HR
POSITION 220000UTC 24.6N 140.6E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
72HR
POSITION 230000UTC 29.0N 136.7E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
96HR
POSITION 240000UTC 35.8N 135.2E WITHIN 180NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
120HR
POSITION 250000UTC 42.0N 137.8E WITHIN 245NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 191800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 6
NAME 1820 CIMARON
ANALYSIS
POSITION 191800UTC 16.7N 149.7E
MOVEMENT NW 5KT
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 201800UTC 19.7N 145.8E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
48HR
POSITION 211800UTC 23.6N 141.6E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
72HR
POSITION 221800UTC 27.7N 137.8E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
96HR
POSITION 231800UTC 34.0N 135.1E WITHIN 180NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
120HR
POSITION 241800UTC 41.2N 137.1E WITHIN 245NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 200300
WARNING 200300.
WARNING VALID 210300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1820 CIMARON (1820) 985 HPA
AT 17.1N 148.6E MARIANAS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201500UTC AT 18.1N 146.8E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210300UTC AT 19.8N 145.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 192100
WARNING 192100.
WARNING VALID 202100.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1820 CIMARON (1820) 992 HPA
AT 16.9N 149.5E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200900UTC AT 18.1N 147.4E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 202100UTC AT 19.3N 145.6E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 191500
WARNING 191500.
WARNING VALID 201500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1820 CIMARON (1820) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL
STORM 992 HPA
AT 16.4N 149.8E MARIANAS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200300UTC AT 17.4N 147.7E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201500UTC AT 18.5N 145.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 200000
WARNING 200000.
WARNING VALID 210000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1820 CIMARON (1820) 985 HPA
AT 17.0N 149.3E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 18.0N 147.4E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 19.4N 145.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220000UTC AT 23.4N 140.8E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230000UTC AT 29.2N 135.4E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 191800
WARNING 191800.
WARNING VALID 201800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1820 CIMARON (1820) 992 HPA
AT 16.7N 149.7E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 17.9N 147.7E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 19.1N 145.8E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211800UTC AT 22.9N 141.3E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221800UTC AT 27.9N 136.4E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 200300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1820 CIMARON (1820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200300UTC 17.1N 148.6E FAIR
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 210300UTC 19.8N 145.0E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 220000UTC 23.4N 140.8E 110NM 70.
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 230000UTC 29.2N 135.4E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 19KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 200000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR STS 1820 CIMARON (1820)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS CIMARON IS LOCATED AT 17.0N, 149.3E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE
JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE
ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 200000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1820 CIMARON (1820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200000UTC 17.0N 149.3E FAIR
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 270NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 210000UTC 19.4N 145.7E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 220000UTC 23.4N 140.8E 110NM 70.
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 230000UTC 29.2N 135.4E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 19KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 240000UTC 36.9N 135.1E 240NM 70.
MOVE N 19KT
120HF 250000UTC 42.8N 143.4E 375NM 70.
MOVE NE 22KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 200000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1820 CIMARON (1820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200000UTC 17.0N 149.3E FAIR
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 270NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 210000UTC 19.4N 145.7E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 220000UTC 23.4N 140.8E 110NM 70.
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 230000UTC 29.2N 135.4E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 19KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 192100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1820 CIMARON (1820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 192100UTC 16.9N 149.5E FAIR
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 270NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 202100UTC 19.3N 145.6E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 211800UTC 22.9N 141.3E 110NM 70.
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 221800UTC 27.9N 136.4E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 17KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 191800 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR STS 1820 CIMARON (1820)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS CIMARON IS LOCATED AT 16.7N, 149.7E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS
FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND STARTING TO FORM A CURVED
BAND. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 191800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR STS 1820 CIMARON (1820)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS CIMARON IS LOCATED AT 16.7N, 149.7E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS
FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND STARTING TO FORM A CURVED
BAND. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 191800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1820 CIMARON (1820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191800UTC 16.7N 149.7E FAIR
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 270NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 201800UTC 19.1N 145.8E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 211800UTC 22.9N 141.3E 110NM 70.
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 221800UTC 27.9N 136.4E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 17KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 231800UTC 34.8N 134.6E 240NM 70.
MOVE N 18KT
120HF 241800UTC 41.6N 139.1E 375NM 70.
MOVE NNE 19KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 191800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1820 CIMARON (1820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191800UTC 16.7N 149.7E FAIR
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 270NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 201800UTC 19.1N 145.8E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 211800UTC 22.9N 141.3E 110NM 70.
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 221800UTC 27.9N 136.4E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 17KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 191500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1820 CIMARON (1820) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191500UTC 16.4N 149.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 270NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 201500UTC 18.5N 145.9E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 211200UTC 21.8N 142.6E 110NM 70.
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 221200UTC 26.2N 137.4E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 191500
WARNING ATCG MIL 23W NWP 180819134818
2018081912 23W CIMARON 008 02 305 07 SATL 060
T000 160N 1505E 055 R050 075 NE QD 095 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 080 NW QD
T012 172N 1485E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 120 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 035 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 180 SE QD 135 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 186N 1466E 070 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 125 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 055 NW QD R034 205 NE QD 220 SE QD 135 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 201N 1447E 075 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 010 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 075 SW Q
D 075 NW QD R034 215 NE QD 250 SE QD 140 SW QD 170 NW QD
T048 220N 1425E 080 R064 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 115 NE QD 120 SE QD 065 SW Q
D 090 NW QD R034 235 NE QD 260 SE QD 130 SW QD 195 NW QD
T072 266N 1378E 080 R064 065 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 115 NE QD 120 SE QD 045 SW Q
D 075 NW QD R034 235 NE QD 225 SE QD 115 SW QD 155 NW QD
T096 325N 1350E 075 R064 050 NE QD 035 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 095 SE QD 045 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 190 SE QD 105 SW QD 115 NW QD
T120 395N 1366E 050 R050 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 150 SE QD 100 SW Q
D 095 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 16.0N 150.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 150.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.2N 148.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 18.6N 146.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 20.1N 144.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 22.0N 142.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 26.6N 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 32.5N 135.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 39.5N 136.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 150.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 276 NM EAST
OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2318081512 133N1645E 20
2318081518 132N1631E 20
2318081600 132N1617E 20
2318081606 131N1608E 20
2318081612 127N1593E 20
2318081618 126N1588E 20
2318081700 126N1583E 20
2318081706 127N1581E 20
2318081712 130N1569E 20
2318081718 133N1556E 25
2318081800 137N1547E 30
2318081806 141N1545E 35
2318081812 144N1537E 35
2318081818 147N1529E 40
2318081900 151N1522E 40
2318081906 156N1511E 45
2318081912 160N1505E 55
2318081912 160N1505E 55


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 16.0N 150.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 150.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.2N 148.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 18.6N 146.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 20.1N 144.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 22.0N 142.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 26.6N 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 32.5N 135.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 39.5N 136.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 150.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 276 NM EAST
OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNINGS (WTPN35 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 191200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 1820 CIMARON (1820)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CIMARON IS LOCATED AT 16.3N, 150.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS HAVE GATHERED AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL
MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 191200
WARNING 191200.
WARNING VALID 201200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1820 CIMARON (1820) 994 HPA
AT 16.3N 150.1E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 14
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 17.2N 147.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 18.3N 146.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211200UTC AT 21.8N 142.6E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 26.2N 137.4E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 191200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1820 CIMARON (1820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191200UTC 16.3N 150.1E FAIR
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 201200UTC 18.3N 146.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 211200UTC 21.8N 142.6E 110NM 70.
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 221200UTC 26.2N 137.4E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 231200UTC 32.0N 134.4E 240NM 70.
MOVE NNW 16KT
120HF 241200UTC 39.2N 136.9E 375NM 70.
MOVE NNE 19KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 191200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1820 CIMARON (1820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191200UTC 16.3N 150.1E FAIR
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 201200UTC 18.3N 146.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 211200UTC 21.8N 142.6E 110NM 70.
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 221200UTC 26.2N 137.4E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 190900
WARNING 190900.
WARNING VALID 200900.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1820 CIMARON (1820) 998 HPA
AT 15.9N 150.3E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 15
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 192100UTC AT 16.9N 148.2E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200900UTC AT 17.9N 146.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 190900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1820 CIMARON (1820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190900UTC 15.9N 150.3E FAIR
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 200900UTC 17.9N 146.4E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 210600UTC 20.9N 143.7E 110NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 220600UTC 25.2N 138.7E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 190900
WARNING ATCG MIL 23W NWP 180819082309
2018081906 23W CIMARON 007 02 295 12 SATL 045
T000 156N 1511E 045 R034 100 NE QD 125 SE QD 070 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 167N 1491E 050 R050 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD 125 SW Q
D 105 NW QD
T024 181N 1470E 055 R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 210 SE QD 175 SW Q
D 135 NW QD
T036 193N 1454E 060 R050 115 NE QD 115 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 215 NE QD 235 SE QD 160 SW Q
D 165 NW QD
T048 212N 1432E 065 R064 065 NE QD 055 SE QD 020 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 115 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 245 SE QD 140 SW QD 195 NW QD
T072 256N 1386E 070 R064 060 NE QD 045 SE QD 025 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 100 SE QD 055 SW Q
D 075 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 230 SE QD 135 SW QD 170 NW QD
T096 311N 1350E 075 R064 050 NE QD 035 SE QD 015 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 210 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 379N 1350E 050 R050 055 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 170 SE QD 125 SW Q
D 100 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 15.6N 151.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 151.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 16.7N 149.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 18.1N 147.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 19.3N 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 21.2N 143.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 25.6N 138.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 31.1N 135.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 37.9N 135.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 150.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 308 NM EAST
OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2318081512 133N1645E 20
2318081518 132N1631E 20
2318081600 132N1617E 20
2318081606 131N1608E 20
2318081612 127N1593E 20
2318081618 126N1588E 20
2318081700 126N1583E 20
2318081706 127N1581E 20
2318081712 130N1569E 20
2318081718 133N1556E 25
2318081800 137N1547E 30
2318081806 141N1545E 35
2318081812 144N1537E 35
2318081818 147N1529E 40
2318081900 151N1522E 40
2318081906 156N1511E 45


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 15.6N 151.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 151.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 16.7N 149.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 18.1N 147.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 19.3N 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 21.2N 143.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 25.6N 138.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 31.1N 135.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 37.9N 135.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 150.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 308 NM EAST
OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNINGS (WTPN35 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 190600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 1820 CIMARON (1820)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CIMARON IS LOCATED AT 15.8N, 151.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. HOWEVER, THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG
VWS IS UNFAVORABLE FOR SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL
MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 190600
WARNING 190600.
WARNING VALID 200600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1820 CIMARON (1820) 998 HPA
AT 15.8N 151.1E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 12
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 16.9N 148.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 18.1N 147.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 20.9N 143.7E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220600UTC AT 25.2N 138.7E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 190600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1820 CIMARON (1820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190600UTC 15.8N 151.1E FAIR
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 200600UTC 18.1N 147.1E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 210600UTC 20.9N 143.7E 110NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 220600UTC 25.2N 138.7E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 230600UTC 30.6N 134.7E 240NM 70.
MOVE NNW 16KT
120HF 240600UTC 37.6N 135.6E 375NM 70.
MOVE N 18KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 190600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1820 CIMARON (1820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190600UTC 15.8N 151.1E FAIR
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 200600UTC 18.1N 147.1E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 210600UTC 20.9N 143.7E 110NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 220600UTC 25.2N 138.7E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 190300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1820 CIMARON (1820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190300UTC 15.2N 151.8E FAIR
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 200300UTC 17.7N 147.7E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 210000UTC 20.3N 144.7E 110NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 220000UTC 24.4N 140.0E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 190300
WARNING ATCG MIL 23W NWP 180819022416
2018081900 23W CIMARON 006 02 315 07 SATL 040
T000 152N 1521E 040 R034 095 NE QD 125 SE QD 060 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 164N 1502E 045 R034 110 NE QD 155 SE QD 115 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 179N 1480E 055 R050 075 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 230 SE QD 185 SW Q
D 125 NW QD
T036 193N 1461E 060 R050 095 NE QD 115 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 205 NE QD 230 SE QD 135 SW Q
D 135 NW QD
T048 205N 1444E 065 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 125 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 065 NW QD R034 225 NE QD 235 SE QD 135 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 248N 1400E 070 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 005 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 045 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 275 SE QD 105 SW QD 170 NW QD
T096 301N 1359E 075 R064 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 045 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 225 NE QD 250 SE QD 105 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 365N 1353E 055 R050 035 NE QD 050 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 170 SE QD 145 SW Q
D 095 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 15.2N 152.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 152.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.4N 150.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.9N 148.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 19.3N 146.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 20.5N 144.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 24.8N 140.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 30.1N 135.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 36.5N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 151.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM EAST
OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2318081512 133N1645E 20
2318081518 132N1631E 20
2318081600 132N1617E 20
2318081606 131N1608E 20
2318081612 127N1593E 20
2318081618 126N1588E 20
2318081700 126N1583E 20
2318081706 127N1581E 20
2318081712 130N1569E 20
2318081718 133N1556E 25
2318081800 137N1547E 30
2318081806 141N1545E 35
2318081812 144N1537E 35
2318081818 147N1526E 40
2318081900 152N1521E 40


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 15.2N 152.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 152.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.4N 150.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.9N 148.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 19.3N 146.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 20.5N 144.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 24.8N 140.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 30.1N 135.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 36.5N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 151.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM EAST
OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z. REFER TO
TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNINGS (WTPN35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 190000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 5 FOR TS 1820 CIMARON (1820)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CIMARON IS LOCATED AT 15.0N, 152.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD
UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS.
JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 190000
WARNING 190000.
WARNING VALID 200000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1820 CIMARON (1820) 1000 HPA
AT 15.0N 152.6E TRUKS MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 16.5N 150.4E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 17.4N 148.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 20.3N 144.7E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220000UTC AT 24.4N 140.0E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 190000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1820 CIMARON (1820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190000UTC 15.0N 152.6E FAIR
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 200000UTC 17.4N 148.1E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 210000UTC 20.3N 144.7E 110NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 220000UTC 24.4N 140.0E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
96HF 230000UTC 29.8N 135.9E 240NM 70.
MOVE NNW 16KT
120HF 240000UTC 37.4N 135.6E 375NM 70.
MOVE N 19KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 190000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1820 CIMARON (1820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190000UTC 15.0N 152.6E FAIR
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 200000UTC 17.4N 148.1E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 210000UTC 20.3N 144.7E 110NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 220000UTC 24.4N 140.0E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 182100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1820 CIMARON (1820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 182100UTC 14.7N 153.2E FAIR
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 192100UTC 17.4N 148.8E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 201800UTC 19.6N 145.6E 110NM 70.
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 211800UTC 23.3N 141.6E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 182100
WARNING ATCG MIL 23W NWP 180818193551
2018081818 23W CIMARON 005 02 280 13 SATL 060
T000 146N 1524E 040 R034 105 NE QD 080 SE QD 105 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 159N 1507E 050 R050 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 190 SW Q
D 095 NW QD
T024 171N 1487E 055 R050 055 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 200 SE QD 215 SW Q
D 120 NW QD
T036 184N 1469E 060 R050 075 NE QD 105 SE QD 070 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 215 SE QD 180 SW Q
D 140 NW QD
T048 198N 1450E 065 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 110 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 065 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 225 SE QD 155 SW QD 160 NW QD
T072 237N 1409E 075 R064 060 NE QD 045 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 110 SE QD 035 SW Q
D 065 NW QD R034 245 NE QD 245 SE QD 130 SW QD 185 NW QD
T096 284N 1363E 080 R064 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 005 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 260 NE QD 260 SE QD 110 SW QD 145 NW QD
T120 341N 1343E 085 R064 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 070 SE QD 045 SW Q
D 005 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 180 SE QD 125 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 14.6N 152.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 152.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 15.9N 150.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 17.1N 148.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 18.4N 146.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 19.8N 145.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 23.7N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 28.4N 136.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 34.1N 134.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 14.9N 152.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 384 NM EAST
OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2318081512 133N1645E 20
2318081518 132N1631E 20
2318081600 132N1617E 20
2318081606 131N1608E 20
2318081612 127N1593E 20
2318081618 126N1588E 20
2318081700 126N1583E 20
2318081706 127N1581E 20
2318081712 130N1569E 20
2318081718 133N1556E 25
2318081800 137N1547E 30
2318081806 141N1545E 35
2318081812 144N1537E 35
2318081818 146N1524E 40


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 14.6N 152.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 152.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 15.9N 150.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 17.1N 148.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 18.4N 146.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 19.8N 145.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 23.7N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 28.4N 136.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 34.1N 134.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 14.9N 152.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 384 NM EAST
OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON
22W (SOULIK) WARNINGS (WTPN35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 181800
WARNING 181800.
WARNING VALID 191800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1820 CIMARON (1820) 1000 HPA
AT 14.1N 153.6E TRUKS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 16.8N 149.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 19.6N 145.6E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211800UTC AT 23.3N 141.6E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 181200
WARNING 181200.
WARNING VALID 191200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1820 CIMARON (1820) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
1000 HPA
AT 13.6N 154.4E SEA NORTH OF TRUKS ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 15.8N 151.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 18.7N 146.5E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211200UTC AT 21.9N 142.7E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 181800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 1820 CIMARON (1820)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CIMARON IS LOCATED AT 14.1N, 153.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS
DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED
ON GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL
FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 181800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1820 CIMARON (1820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181800UTC 14.1N 153.6E FAIR
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 191800UTC 16.8N 149.7E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 201800UTC 19.6N 145.6E 110NM 70.
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 211800UTC 23.3N 141.6E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
96HF 221800UTC 28.4N 136.9E 240NM 70.
MOVE NW 17KT
120HF 231800UTC 35.2N 134.2E 375NM 70.
MOVE NNW 18KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 181800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1820 CIMARON (1820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181800UTC 14.1N 153.6E FAIR
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 191800UTC 16.8N 149.7E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 201800UTC 19.6N 145.6E 110NM 70.
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 211800UTC 23.3N 141.6E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 181500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1820 CIMARON (1820)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181500UTC 14.0N 153.8E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 191500UTC 16.3N 150.3E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 201200UTC 18.7N 146.5E 110NM 70.
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 211200UTC 21.9N 142.7E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 181200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 1820 CIMARON (1820)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS (CIMARON) STATUS. TS CIMARON IS
LOCATED AT 13.6N, 154.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED
ON GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL
FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE JMA INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 181200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1820 CIMARON (1820) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181200UTC 13.6N 154.4E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 191200UTC 15.8N 151.1E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 201200UTC 18.7N 146.5E 110NM 70.
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 211200UTC 21.9N 142.7E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
96HF 221200UTC 26.3N 138.4E 240NM 70.
MOVE NW 15KT
120HF 231200UTC 32.0N 135.6E 375NM 70.
MOVE NNW 16KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 181200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1820 CIMARON (1820) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181200UTC 13.6N 154.4E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 191200UTC 15.8N 151.1E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 201200UTC 18.7N 146.5E 110NM 70.
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 211200UTC 21.9N 142.7E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =