Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for MIRIAM-18
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 022200 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15E (MIRIAM) WARNING NR 033A CORRECTED
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 26.1N 144.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 26.1N 144.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 27.3N 146.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 28.2N 148.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
022200Z POSITION NEAR 26.5N 144.8W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15E (MIRIAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 714 NM
NORTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 021800Z IS 13 FEET.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: SYSTEM HAS BEEN FINAL WARNED.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 022200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15E (MIRIAM) WARNING NR 031
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 26.1N 144.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
REPEAT POSIT: 26.1N 144.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 27.3N 146.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 28.2N 148.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
022200Z POSITION NEAR 26.5N 144.8W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15E (MIRIAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 714 NM
NORTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 13
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030400Z, 031000Z AND 031600Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 021600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15E (MIRIAM) WARNING NR 030
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 15E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 25.7N 143.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
REPEAT POSIT: 25.7N 143.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 27.3N 145.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 28.6N 147.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 29.7N 149.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
021600Z POSITION NEAR 26.2N 144.1W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15E (MIRIAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 736 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z
IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022200Z, 030400Z, 031000Z AND 031600Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 021000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15E (MIRIAM) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 24.8N 142.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.8N 142.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 26.5N 144.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 27.9N 146.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 29.0N 148.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
021000Z POSITION NEAR 25.4N 143.1W.
TROPICAL STORM 15E (MIRIAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 758 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 021600Z, 022200Z, 030400Z AND 031000Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 020400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15E (MIRIAM) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 23.8N 142.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8N 142.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 25.6N 143.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 27.0N 145.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 28.2N 147.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
020400Z POSITION NEAR 24.4N 142.5W.
TROPICAL STORM 15E (MIRIAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 770 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 021000Z, 021600Z, 022200Z AND 030400Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 012200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15E (MIRIAM) WARNING NR 027
DOWNGRADED FROM HURRICANE 15E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 22.8N 141.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8N 141.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 24.7N 142.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 26.3N 144.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 27.6N 146.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 28.7N 148.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
012200Z POSITION NEAR 23.4N 141.7W.
TROPICAL STORM 15E (MIRIAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 793 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 21
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020400Z, 021000Z, 021600Z AND 022200Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 011600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 15E (MIRIAM) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 15E (MIRIAM) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 21.7N 141.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7N 141.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 23.6N 141.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 25.4N 143.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 27.1N 145.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 28.7N 147.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
011600Z POSITION NEAR 22.3N 141.4W.
HURRICANE 15E (MIRIAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 795 NM EAST OF
HILO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 012200Z, 020400Z, 021000Z AND 021600Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 011000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 15E (MIRIAM) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 20.5N 141.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 141.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 22.2N 141.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 24.1N 143.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 25.9N 144.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 27.6N 146.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 30.7N 150.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
011000Z POSITION NEAR 21.1N 141.3W.
HURRICANE 15E (MIRIAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 790 NM EAST OF
HILO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 011600Z, 012200Z, 020400Z AND 021000Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 010400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 15E (MIRIAM) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 19.7N 141.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 141.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 21.7N 141.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 23.6N 142.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 25.6N 143.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 27.4N 145.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 30.7N 149.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
010400Z POSITION NEAR 20.4N 141.0W.
HURRICANE 15E (MIRIAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 796 NM EAST OF
HILO, HAS TRACKED AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 011000Z, 011600Z, 012200Z AND 020400Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 312200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 15E (MIRIAM) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 15E (MIRIAM) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 18.7N 141.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 141.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 20.6N 141.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 22.6N 141.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 24.6N 143.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 26.6N 144.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 30.0N 148.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
312200Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 141.2W.
HURRICANE 15E (MIRIAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 790 NM EAST OF
HILO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 010400Z, 011000Z, 011600Z AND 012200Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 311600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 15E (MIRIAM) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 15E (MIRIAM) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 17.8N 141.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 141.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 19.6N 141.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 21.4N 141.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 23.2N 142.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 25.1N 144.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 28.5N 148.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
311600Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 141.3W.
HURRICANE 15E (MIRIAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 792 NM EAST OF
HILO, HAS TRACKED AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 312200Z, 010400Z, 011000Z AND 011600Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 311000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 15E (MIRIAM) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 16.9N 141.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 141.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 18.7N 141.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 20.5N 141.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 22.3N 142.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 24.2N 143.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 27.7N 147.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 31.0N 152.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
311000Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 141.4W.
HURRICANE 15E (MIRIAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 792 NM EAST OF
HILO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 311600Z, 312200Z, 010400Z AND 011000Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 310400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 15E (MIRIAM) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 16.2N 141.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 141.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 17.9N 141.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 19.7N 141.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 21.5N 141.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 23.2N 143.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 26.6N 146.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 30.0N 150.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 33.0N 155.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
310400Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 141.5W.
HURRICANE 15E (MIRIAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 798 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 22
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311000Z, 311600Z, 312200Z AND 010400Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 302200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 15E (MIRIAM) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 15E (MIRIAM) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 15.4N 141.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 141.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 17.0N 141.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 18.7N 141.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 20.4N 141.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 22.1N 142.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 25.0N 145.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 28.0N 149.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 30.0N 154.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
302200Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 141.6W.
HURRICANE 15E (MIRIAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 819 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z
IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310400Z, 311000Z, 311600Z AND 312200Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 301600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 15E (MIRIAM) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 15.0N 141.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 141.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 16.3N 141.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 17.9N 141.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 19.5N 141.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 21.2N 142.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 24.2N 144.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 26.5N 148.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 28.0N 152.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
301600Z POSITION NEAR 15.4N 141.6W.
HURRICANE 15E (MIRIAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 828 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 22
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302200Z, 310400Z, 311000Z AND 311600Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 301000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 15E (MIRIAM) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 14.4N 140.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N 140.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 15.4N 141.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 16.8N 141.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 18.4N 141.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 19.9N 141.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 23.0N 144.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 25.5N 147.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 27.0N 152.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
301000Z POSITION NEAR 14.7N 141.1W.
HURRICANE 15E (MIRIAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 879 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z
IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301600Z, 302200Z, 310400Z AND
311000Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 300400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 15E (MIRIAM) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 14.1N 140.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 140.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 14.8N 141.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 16.0N 141.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 17.7N 141.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 19.4N 141.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 22.0N 143.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 25.0N 147.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 27.0N 151.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
300400Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 140.5W.
HURRICANE 15E (MIRIAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 918 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 301000Z, 301600Z, 302200Z AND 310400Z.
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 292148 RRA
TCDEP5

HURRICANE MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER 15...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
200 PM PDT WED AUG 29 2018

CORRECTED WMO HEADER IN FOURTH PARAGRAPH

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF MIRIAM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO. SEVERAL MICROWAVE IMAGES RECEIVED SINCE
THE RELEASE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY REVEALED A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WITH CONVECTION WRAPPING NEARLY
COMPLETELY AROUND THE CENTER. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES HAVE
SHOWN HINTS OF AN EYE, BUT THE SURROUNDING CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE
WARMED SOMEWHAT. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ALL SUPPORT HURRICANE STRENGTH, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS INCREASED TO 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

SATELLITE FIXES SHOW THAT MIRIAM HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS MOVING
WESTWARD OR 270/8 KT. THE HURRICANE IS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
VERY SOON. A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED NORTHEAST OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CAUSE MIRIAM TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD, THEN
NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME, MODEL
DIFFERENCES REMAIN AS THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO TAKE A DEEPER CYCLONE
MUCH FASTER NORTHWARD THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE. THE NHC
FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN TOWARD THE SOLUTION OF A WEAKER CYCLONE
TURNING NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST IS ONCE AGAIN SOUTH OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 292148 CCA
TCDEP5

Hurricane Miriam Discussion Number 15...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152018
200 PM PDT Wed Aug 29 2018

Corrected WMO header in fourth paragraph

The satellite presentation of Miriam has significantly improved over
the past 12 hours or so. Several microwave images received since
the release of the previous advisory revealed a significant
increase in organization with convection wrapping nearly
completely around the center. Recent visible satellite images have
shown hints of an eye, but the surrounding convective tops have
warmed somewhat. Subjective and objective Dvorak intensity
estimates all support hurricane strength, and the initial intensity
is increased to 65 kt for this advisory.

Satellite fixes show that Miriam has slowed down and is moving
westward or 270/8 kt. The hurricane is near the western edge of
the subtropical ridge and is forecast to turn west-northwestward
very soon. A large mid- to upper-level trough located northeast of
the Hawaiian Islands should cause Miriam to turn northwestward, then
northward over the next couple of days, and the dynamical models
are in good agreement through 72 hours. After that time, model
differences remain as the ECMWF continues to take a deeper cyclone
much faster northward than the remainder of the guidance. The NHC
forecast continues to lean toward the solution of a weaker cyclone
turning northwestward or west-northwestward near the end of the
forecast period. The updated NHC forecast is once again south of
the model consensus at days 4 and 5 and is in best agreement with
the GFS ensemble mean.

Miriam has about another 12-24 h over warm water and within a light
to moderate wind shear environment in which to strengthen. After
that time, a significant increase in southwesterly shear is
anticipated and Miriam is forecast to weaken fairly quickly
between 36 and 72 hours. Miriam should reach SSTs below 26C by
96 h and should degenerate into a remnant low by that time.

Miriam will move into the Central Pacific Basin shortly and this is
last NHC advisory on this system. Future information on Miriam can
be found in advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center beginning at 5 PM HST (0300 UTC), under AWIPS header
HFOTCPCP3, WMO header WTPA33 PHFO, and on the web at
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 14.0N 139.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 14.4N 140.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 15.3N 141.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 31/0600Z 16.7N 141.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 31/1800Z 18.4N 141.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 21.5N 142.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 24.7N 145.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 03/1800Z 27.0N 149.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 292044 RRA
TCDEP5

HURRICANE MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
200 PM PDT WED AUG 29 2018

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF MIRIAM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO. SEVERAL MICROWAVE IMAGES RECEIVED SINCE
THE RELEASE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY REVEALED A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WITH CONVECTION WRAPPING NEARLY
COMPLETELY AROUND THE CENTER. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES HAVE
SHOWN HINTS OF AN EYE, BUT THE SURROUNDING CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE
WARMED SOMEWHAT. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ALL SUPPORT HURRICANE STRENGTH, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS INCREASED TO 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

SATELLITE FIXES SHOW THAT MIRIAM HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS MOVING
WESTWARD OR 270/8 KT. THE HURRICANE IS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
VERY SOON. A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED NORTHEAST OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CAUSE MIRIAM TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD, THEN
NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME, MODEL
DIFFERENCES REMAIN AS THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO TAKE A DEEPER CYCLONE
MUCH FASTER NORTHWARD THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE. THE NHC
FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN TOWARD THE SOLUTION OF A WEAKER CYCLONE
TURNING NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST IS ONCE AGAIN SOUTH OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.

MIRIAM HAS ABOUT ANOTHER 12-24 H OVER WARM WATER AND WITHIN A LIGHT


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 292044
TCDEP5

Hurricane Miriam Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152018
200 PM PDT Wed Aug 29 2018

The satellite presentation of Miriam has significantly improved over
the past 12 hours or so. Several microwave images received since
the release of the previous advisory revealed a significant
increase in organization with convection wrapping nearly
completely around the center. Recent visible satellite images have
shown hints of an eye, but the surrounding convective tops have
warmed somewhat. Subjective and objective Dvorak intensity
estimates all support hurricane strength, and the initial intensity
is increased to 65 kt for this advisory.

Satellite fixes show that Miriam has slowed down and is moving
westward or 270/8 kt. The hurricane is near the western edge of
the subtropical ridge and is forecast to turn west-northwestward
very soon. A large mid- to upper-level trough located northeast of
the Hawaiian Islands should cause Miriam to turn northwestward, then
northward over the next couple of days, and the dynamical models
are in good agreement through 72 hours. After that time, model
differences remain as the ECMWF continues to take a deeper cyclone
much faster northward than the remainder of the guidance. The NHC
forecast continues to lean toward the solution of a weaker cyclone
turning northwestward or west-northwestward near the end of the
forecast period. The updated NHC forecast is once again south of
the model consensus at days 4 and 5 and is in best agreement with
the GFS ensemble mean.

Miriam has about another 12-24 h over warm water and within a light
to moderate wind shear environment in which to strengthen. After
that time, a significant increase in southwesterly shear is
anticipated and Miriam is forecast to weaken fairly quickly
between 36 and 72 hours. Miriam should reach SSTs below 26C by
96 h and should degenerate into a remnant low by that time.

Miriam will move into the Central Pacific Basin shortly and this is
last NHC advisory on this system. Future information on Miriam can
be found in advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center beginning at 5 PM HST (0300 UTC), under AWIPS header
HFOTCPCP3, WMO header WTPA32 PHFO, and on the web at
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 14.0N 139.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 14.4N 140.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 15.3N 141.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 31/0600Z 16.7N 141.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 31/1800Z 18.4N 141.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 21.5N 142.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 24.7N 145.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 03/1800Z 27.0N 149.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 292043 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MIRIAM ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
200 PM PDT WED AUG 29 2018

...MIRIAM BECOMES A HURRICANE JUST BEFORE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 139.7W
ABOUT 1090 MI...1755 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MIRIAM WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 139.7 WEST. MIRIAM IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT,
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH (120 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MIRIAM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING ON FRIDAY
AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND COOLER WATERS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES
(150 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB (29.30 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 292043
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Miriam Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152018
200 PM PDT Wed Aug 29 2018

...MIRIAM BECOMES A HURRICANE JUST BEFORE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 139.7W
ABOUT 1090 MI...1755 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Miriam was located
near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 139.7 West. Miriam is moving
toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected tonight,
followed by a turn toward the northwest and north through Friday
night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible during
the next 24 hours. Miriam is expected to begin weakening on Friday
as it encounters strong upper-level winds and cooler waters.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Miriam. Future information on this system can be found in
Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center
beginning at 5 PM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP3, WMO header
WTPA33 PHFO, and on the web at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 292043 RRA
TCMEP5

HURRICANE MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
2100 UTC WED AUG 29 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 139.7W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 139.7W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 139.4W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 14.4N 140.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 15.3N 141.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 16.7N 141.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 18.4N 141.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 21.5N 142.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 292043
TCMEP5

HURRICANE MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
2100 UTC WED AUG 29 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 139.7W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 139.7W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 139.4W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 14.4N 140.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 15.3N 141.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 16.7N 141.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 18.4N 141.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 21.5N 142.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 24.7N 145.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 27.0N 149.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 139.7W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON MIRIAM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER BEGINNING AT 0300 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP3...WMO
HEADER WTPA23 PHFO.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 292200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 15E (MIRIAM) WARNING NR 015
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 15E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 14.0N 139.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N 139.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 14.4N 140.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 15.3N 141.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 16.7N 141.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 18.4N 141.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 21.5N 142.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 24.7N 145.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 27.0N 149.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
292200Z POSITION NEAR 14.1N 139.8W.
HURRICANE 15E (MIRIAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 964 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 300400Z, 301000Z, 301600Z AND 302200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16E (NORMAN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 291434 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
800 AM PDT WED AUG 29 2018

...MIRIAM A LITTLE STRONGER...
.................................................................EXPEC
EXPECT
XPECTE
PECTED
TO
MOVE
INTO
THE
CENTRAL
PACIFIC
BASIN
LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 139.4W
ABOUT 1105 MI...1775 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 139.4 WEST. MIRIAM IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY
TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO, AND MIRIAM COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY. STEADY
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES (130 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB (29.42 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 291434 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
800 AM PDT WED AUG 29 2018

ALTHOUGH MIRIAM REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE, RECENT
GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE DATA AND A 1002 UTC AMSR2 MICROWAVE
OVERPASS INDICATES THAT THERE HAS BEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE
STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE. THE MICROWAVE DATA SHOWED AN INCREASE IN
BANDING OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION AND LESS
SEPARATION BETWEEN THE CONVECTION AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
THEREFORE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT, WHICH IS A
BLEND OF THE MOST RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND
OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM UW/CIMSS. THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER
THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE ABATED SLIGHTLY, AND A FURTHER SLIGHT
REDUCTION IN SHEAR COULD ALLOW MIRIAM TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH
WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 H. MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AGREES,
AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR THE
FIRST 36 H. AFTER THAT TIME, INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE MIRIAM TO WEAKEN FAIRLY QUICKLY AND THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4.

MIRIAM CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD OR 275/10 KT. THE CYCLONE IS
APPROACHING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, AND THE
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT MIRIAM WILL SLOW DOWN AND TURN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD VERY SOON. BY THURSDAY, A LARGE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE MIRIAM TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD, THEN NORTHWARD
THROUGH 72 HOURS. AT DAYS 3 AND BEYOND, THERE CONTINUES TO BE
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE ECMWF STILL TAKING MIRIAM


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 291434
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Miriam Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152018
800 AM PDT Wed Aug 29 2018

Although Miriam remains a sheared tropical cyclone, recent
geostationary satellite data and a 1002 UTC AMSR2 microwave
overpass indicates that there has been some improvement in the
structure of the cyclone. The microwave data showed an increase in
banding over the eastern portion of the circulation and less
separation between the convection and the low-level center.
Therefore, the initial intensity is increased to 60 kt, which is a
blend of the most recent subjective Dvorak classifications and
objective T-numbers from UW/CIMSS. The northwesterly shear over
the cyclone appears to have abated slightly, and a further slight
reduction in shear could allow Miriam to reach hurricane strength
within the next 24-36 h. Most of the intensity guidance agrees,
and the NHC intensity forecast has been increased slightly for the
first 36 h. After that time, increasing shear and cooler waters are
expected to cause Miriam to weaken fairly quickly and the system is
forecast to become a remnant low by day 4.

Miriam continues to move westward or 275/10 kt. The cyclone is
approaching the western edge of the subtropical ridge, and the
global models indicate that Miriam will slow down and turn
west-northwestward very soon. By Thursday, a large mid- to
upper-level trough to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands is
expected to cause Miriam to turn northwestward, then northward
through 72 hours. At days 3 and beyond, there continues to be
significant model differences with the ECMWF still taking Miriam
faster and much farther northward, while the GFS moves a much
weaker Miriam westward. Since Miriam is forecast to weaken and
become a shallow system around that time, the NHC forecast leans
toward the more westward scenario, but is not as far south and west
as the GFS. The new NHC track is south of the various consensus aids
at day 5, and is in best agreement with the GFS ensemble mean
and UKMET model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 14.2N 139.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 14.4N 140.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 15.1N 141.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 16.3N 142.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 31/1200Z 17.9N 142.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 21.0N 142.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 23.8N 145.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 03/1200Z 26.7N 149.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 291434
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
800 AM PDT WED AUG 29 2018

...MIRIAM A LITTLE STRONGER...
..............EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 139.4W
ABOUT 1105 MI...1775 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 139.4 WEST. MIRIAM IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY
TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO, AND MIRIAM COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY. STEADY
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES (130 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB (29.42 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.

.............
FORECASTER BROWN


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 291434 RRA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
1500 UTC WED AUG 29 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 139.4W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 139.4W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 139.0W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.4N 140.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 15.1N 141.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 16.3N 142.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 17.9N 142.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 21.0N 142.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 291434
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
1500 UTC WED AUG 29 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 139.4W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 139.4W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 139.0W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.4N 140.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 15.1N 141.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 16.3N 142.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 17.9N 142.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 21.0N 142.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 23.8N 145.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 26.7N 149.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 139.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 291600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15E (MIRIAM) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 14.2N 139.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 139.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 14.4N 140.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 15.1N 141.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 16.3N 142.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 17.9N 142.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 21.0N 142.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 23.8N 145.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 26.7N 149.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
291600Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 139.5W.
TROPICAL STORM 15E (MIRIAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 981 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 292200Z, 300400Z, 301000Z AND 301600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 16E (NORMAN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 291000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15E (MIRIAM) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 14.2N 138.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 138.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 14.4N 139.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 14.9N 141.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 15.8N 141.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 17.2N 142.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 20.4N 142.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 23.0N 144.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 26.5N 148.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
291000Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 138.6W.
TROPICAL STORM 15E (MIRIAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1035 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 291600Z, 292200Z, 300400Z AND 301000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16E (NORMAN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 290853 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
200 AM PDT WED AUG 29 2018

AT FACE VALUE, MIRIAM SEEMS TO BE GETTING A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED. ITS CONVECTIVE CANOPY HAS BEEN EXPANDING DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS, AND CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING STROKES HAVE BEEN DETECTED
WITHIN A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, A 0637 UTC
METOP-B MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS THAT MIRIAM REMAINS A SHEARED CYCLONE,
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER RUNNING OUT AHEAD OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
STILL, WITH THE EXPANDING CONVECTION, DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
SAB HAVE RISEN TO T3.5, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT.

MIRIAM IS MOVING WESTWARD, OR 275/11 KT, NEAR THE WESTERN END OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A DEEP-LAYER LOW LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE MIRIAM TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN
SHARPLY NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE
MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. AFTER DAY 3,
HOWEVER, THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GUIDANCE, WITH
THE GFS TAKING A SHALLOW CYCLONE ALMOST DUE WESTWARD AND THE ECMWF
CONTINUING TO ACCELERATE A DEEPER MIRIAM NORTHWARD ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE DEEP-LAYER LOW. WITH THESE MODELS BEING THE MOST ACUTE
OUTLIERS, THE NHC FORECAST TRACK THINKING CONTINUES TO LIE CLOSE TO
THE TIGHT CLUSTERING OF THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE, HCCA, AND
TVCX CONSENSUS AIDS.

THERE IS ALSO GREATER-THAN-NORMAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY
FORECAST. THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOW NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR
PERSISTING OVER MIRIAM AND ONLY STRENGTHEN THE CYCLONE SLIGHTLY
DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE HWRF AND HCCA MODELS ARE STILL


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 290853
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Miriam Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152018
200 AM PDT Wed Aug 29 2018

At face value, Miriam seems to be getting a little better
organized. Its convective canopy has been expanding during the
past few hours, and continuous lightning strokes have been detected
within a well-defined mid-level circulation. However, a 0637 UTC
METOP-B microwave pass shows that Miriam remains a sheared cyclone,
with the low-level center running out ahead of the deep convection.
Still, with the expanding convection, Dvorak estimates from TAFB and
SAB have risen to T3.5, and the initial intensity is set at 55 kt.

Miriam is moving westward, or 275/11 kt, near the western end of
the subtropical ridge. A deep-layer low located northeast of the
Hawaiian Islands is expected to cause Miriam to slow down and turn
sharply northwestward and northward during the next 48 hours. The
models are in excellent agreement on this scenario. After day 3,
however, there are significant differences among the guidance, with
the GFS taking a shallow cyclone almost due westward and the ECMWF
continuing to accelerate a deeper Miriam northward on the east side
of the deep-layer low. With these models being the most acute
outliers, the NHC forecast track thinking continues to lie close to
the tight clustering of the Florida State Superensemble, HCCA, and
TVCX consensus aids.

There is also greater-than-normal uncertainty in the intensity
forecast. The SHIPS and LGEM models show northwesterly shear
persisting over Miriam and only strengthen the cyclone slightly
during the next 24-36 hours. The HWRF and HCCA models are still
showing more significant strengthening, making Miriam a hurricane
over the next day or two. I was tempted to explicitly show Miriam
becoming a hurricane in the official forecast, but I decided to hold
off since the cyclone just hasn't been able to display an improved
structure as of yet. Even if some strengthening does occur,
vertical shear is expected to increase substantially from 48 hours
onward, which will cause fast weakening and Miriam likely
degenerating into a remnant low by day 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 14.2N 138.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 14.4N 139.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 14.9N 141.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 15.8N 141.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 31/0600Z 17.2N 142.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 20.4N 142.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 23.0N 144.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 03/0600Z 26.5N 148.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 290852
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
200 AM PDT WED AUG 29 2018

...MIRIAM A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 138.4W
ABOUT 1165 MI...1875 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 138.4 WEST. MIRIAM IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY
TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO,
BUT MIRIAM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING BY FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES (130 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB (29.50 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

....
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 290852 RRA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
0900 UTC WED AUG 29 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 138.4W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 138.4W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 138.0W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 14.4N 139.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 14.9N 141.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 15.8N 141.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 17.2N 142.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 20.4N 142.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 23.0N 144.5W


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 290852
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
0900 UTC WED AUG 29 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 138.4W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 138.4W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 138.0W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 14.4N 139.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 14.9N 141.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 15.8N 141.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 17.2N 142.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 20.4N 142.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 23.0N 144.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 26.5N 148.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 138.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 290232 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 28 2018

...MIRIAM MAINTAINING A WESTWARD MOTION...
....................................................................NO
CHANGE
IN
STRENGTH...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 137.4W
ABOUT 1230 MI...1980 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 137.4 WEST. MIRIAM IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY, BEFORE WEAKENING BEGINS ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES (130 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB (29.53 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 290233 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 28 2018

THERE'S BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF MIRIAM
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. AN EARLIER ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY
MICROWAVE SOUNDER (ATMS) OVERPASS AND A 2053 UTC GCOM-W1 AMSR2 IMAGE
INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE CENTER IS STILL SHEARED TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURE ENCOMPASSING THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CYCLONE. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB REMAIN UNCHANGED, AND A 2213 UTC SATCON ANALYSIS
SHOWED 51 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD
AT 50 KT.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS EVENING.
DECAY SHIPS GUIDANCE (BOTH GFS AND ECMWF BACKGROUND FIELDS) SHOWS
THE MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASING AFTER 48 HOURS, WHILE
INDICATING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH UP TO THAT PERIOD. AFTER THAT
TIME, THESE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE MODELS QUICKLY DEGENERATE
THE CYCLONE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 4 DAYS. THE NOAA-HCCA, HWRF, AND
THE IVCN CONSENSUS MODEL, ON THE OTHER HAND, ALL SHOW MIRIAM
BECOMING A HURRICANE IN 36-48 HOURS. FOR THIS ADVISORY, I'VE
ELECTED TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND SHOW GRADUAL STRENGTHENING TO
JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 36 HOURS, WITH A WEAKENING TREND
COMMENCING IN 3 DAYS. ALL THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AGREE WITH
MIRIAM BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN 5 DAYS, AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN
THE NHC FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WESTWARD, OR 270/11 KT,
WITHIN THE EASTERLY MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW PRODUCED BY A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH TO THE NORTH OF MIRIAM. THE CYCLONE IS


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 290233
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Miriam Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152018
800 PM PDT Tue Aug 28 2018

There's been little change in the overall cloud pattern of Miriam
during the past several hours. An earlier Advanced Technology
Microwave Sounder (ATMS) overpass and a 2053 UTC GCOM-W1 AMSR2 image
indicate that the surface center is still sheared to the northwest
of the deep convective banding feature encompassing the southern
portion of the cyclone. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from
TAFB and SAB remain unchanged, and a 2213 UTC SATCON analysis
showed 51 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is held
at 50 kt.

The intensity forecast is rather problematic this evening.
Decay SHIPS guidance (both GFS and ECMWF background fields) shows
the moderate northwesterly shear increasing after 48 hours, while
indicating little change in strength up to that period. After that
time, these statistical/dynamical guidance models quickly degenerate
the cyclone into a remnant low in 4 days. The NOAA-HCCA, HWRF, and
the IVCN consensus model, on the other hand, all show Miriam
becoming a hurricane in 36-48 hours. For this advisory, I've
elected to maintain continuity and show gradual strengthening to
just below hurricane strength in 36 hours, with a weakening trend
commencing in 3 days. All the deterministic models agree with
Miriam becoming a remnant low in 5 days, and this is reflected in
the NHC forecast.

The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 270/11 kt,
within the easterly mid-level steering flow produced by a
mid-tropospheric high to the north of Miriam. The cyclone is
expected to turn toward the northwest in 36 hours, then
rather abruptly north-northwestward in 2 days and continuing on
through day 4, in response to a large mid- to upper level cutoff low
digging southwestward toward the Hawaiian Islands. A large spread
in the models still exists in the latter portion of the forecast, as
mentioned in the previous advisory. The track forecast philosophy
remains unchanged with a nudge more toward a blend of the TVCN
consensus and the global models that show a gradual turn back toward
the northwest due to a shallower vertical structure near the end of
the period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 14.1N 137.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 14.2N 138.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 14.5N 140.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 15.4N 141.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 31/0000Z 16.7N 141.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 20.2N 142.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 23.4N 143.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 03/0000Z 26.5N 146.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 290232
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 28 2018

...MIRIAM MAINTAINING A WESTWARD MOTION...
.................NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 137.4W
ABOUT 1230 MI...1980 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 137.4 WEST. MIRIAM IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY, BEFORE WEAKENING BEGINS ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES (130 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB (29.53 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

................
FORECASTER ROBERTS


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 290231 RRA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
0300 UTC WED AUG 29 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 137.4W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 137.4W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 136.9W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 14.2N 138.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.5N 140.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 15.4N 141.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 16.7N 141.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 20.2N 142.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 23.4N 143.6W


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 290231
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
0300 UTC WED AUG 29 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 137.4W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 137.4W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 136.9W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 14.2N 138.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.5N 140.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 15.4N 141.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 16.7N 141.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 20.2N 142.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 23.4N 143.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 26.5N 146.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 137.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 282200 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15E (MIRIAM) WARNING NR 011A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 14.1N 135.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 135.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 14.2N 138.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 14.4N 139.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 14.9N 141.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 16.1N 141.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 19.3N 142.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 22.6N 143.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 26.0N 146.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
282200Z POSITION NEAR 14.1N 136.5W.
TROPICAL STORM 15E (MIRIAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1157 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 290400Z, 291000Z, 291600Z AND 292200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16E (SIXTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED REFERENCE TO 16E.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 282200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15E (MIRIAM) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 14.1N 135.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 135.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 14.2N 138.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 14.4N 139.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 14.9N 141.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 16.1N 141.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 19.3N 142.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 22.6N 143.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 26.0N 146.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
282200Z POSITION NEAR 14.1N 136.5W.
TROPICAL STORM 15E (MIRIAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1157 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 290400Z, 291000Z, 291600Z AND 292200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16E (SIXTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 282035 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 28 2018

NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS TAKEN A TOLL ON MIRIAM, WITH VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED
NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE
DECREASED TO 3.0 BY BOTH SAB AND TAFB, AND A BLEND OF THE T- AND
CI-NUMBERS YIELDS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR THAT IS
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT IT COULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BY LATE WEDNESDAY,
ALLOWING FOR SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.
THEREAFTER, A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BRING ABOUT INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
OVER THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING IN 3
TO 4 DAYS. THE CYCLONE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY 120 HOURS AS SHEAR INCREASES EVEN FURTHER, AND THE SYSTEM
CROSSES COOLER SSTS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN
LOWERED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, REFLECTING BOTH THE
LOWERING OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND THE EXPECTED CONTINUATION OF
THE SHEAR. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST,
THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE THAT MIRIAM COULD REACH HURRICANE STATUS
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS, BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES.

THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE DUE WEST, OR 270/11 KT,
AS MIRIAM CONTINUES TO BE STEERED AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR THE NEXT FEW


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 282035
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Miriam Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152018
200 PM PDT Tue Aug 28 2018

Northwesterly shear has taken a toll on Miriam, with visible
satellite imagery depicting an exposed low-level center located
northwest of the deep convection. Subjective Dvorak T-numbers have
decreased to 3.0 by both SAB and TAFB, and a blend of the T- and
CI-numbers yields an initial intensity of 50 kt for this advisory.

Model guidance suggests that the northwesterly shear that is
currently affecting the cyclone will continue for at least the
next 24 hours, but it could diminish slightly by late Wednesday,
allowing for some modest strengthening in 36 to 48 hours.
Thereafter, a mid- to upper-level trough to the northwest of the
cyclone is expected to bring about increasing southwesterly shear
over the system, which is expected to cause steady weakening in 3
to 4 days. The cyclone is then expected to become a post-tropical
cyclone by 120 hours as shear increases even further, and the system
crosses cooler SSTs. The official intensity forecast has been
lowered for much of the forecast period, reflecting both the
lowering of the initial intensity and the expected continuation of
the shear. Although not explicitly shown in the official forecast,
there is still some chance that Miriam could reach hurricane status
in a couple of days, before the shear increases.

The initial motion continues to be due west, or 270/11 kt,
as Miriam continues to be steered around the southern periphery of
a subtropical ridge. The track forecast philosophy for the next few
days remains unchanged as the aforementioned mid- to upper-level
trough northeast of Hawaii weakens the western periphery of the
ridge, and Miriam is forecast to turn northwestward then
north-northwestward between the trough and ridge. There continues
to be a large spread in the guidance by day 5, with the ECMWF and
UKMET taking a more vertically coherent system northward, while the
GFS, HWRF, and HMON turn Miriam westward as the system weakens and
becomes a more shallow system. The latter scenario is beginning to
seem more plausible and the NHC track forecast was adjusted
southward and westward, but additional changes may be required
if future forecasts shown a faster rate of demise.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 14.1N 136.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 14.2N 138.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 14.4N 139.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 14.9N 141.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 16.1N 141.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 31/1800Z 19.3N 142.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 22.6N 143.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 02/1800Z 26.0N 146.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown/Latto


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 282034
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 28 2018

...MIRIAM BECOMES LESS ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 136.4W
ABOUT 1295 MI...2080 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 136.4 WEST. MIRIAM IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY, BEFORE WEAKENING BEGINS ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES (130 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB (29.53 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

....
FORECASTER BROWN/LATTO


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 282034 RRA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
2100 UTC TUE AUG 28 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 136.4W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 136.4W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 135.8W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 14.2N 138.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 14.4N 139.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 14.9N 141.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 16.1N 141.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 19.3N 142.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 22.6N 143.1W


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 282034
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
2100 UTC TUE AUG 28 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 136.4W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 136.4W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 135.8W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 14.2N 138.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 14.4N 139.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 14.9N 141.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 16.1N 141.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 19.3N 142.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 22.6N 143.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 26.0N 146.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 136.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/LATTO


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 281456 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 28 2018

A VERY RECENTLY ARRIVING HIGH-RESOLUTION MICROWAVE OVERPASS
INDICATES THAT MIRIAM IS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE GPM PASS
SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF MIRIAM IS LOCATED WELL NORTHWEST OF THE
PRIMARY MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
SHEAR. THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED WELL WEST OF THE
EARLIER POSITION ESTIMATES, WHICH HAS ALSO REQUIRED A RE-LOCATION.
THE MOST RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB, AS WELL AS
UW-CIMSS/ADT, SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY, HOWEVER, THIS COULD BE
GENEROUS GIVEN THE RECENT MICROWAVE DATA.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS, WITH POSSIBLY A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN THE SHEAR IN 24 TO 48
HOURS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT MIRIAM SHOULD ONLY GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND IT IS LIKELY TO REACH
ITS PEAK INTENSITY IN 2-3 DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME, INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE
WEAKENING. BY 96 HOURS, THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BECOME QUITE
STRONG AND MIRIAM WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB 26C SSTS. THESE
PROGRESSIVELY HOSTILE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE MIRIAM TO BECOME
A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY 120 HOURS. THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE, AND GENERALLY IN BETWEEN THE ICON
AND HCCA CONSENSUS MODELS.

THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE DUE WESTWARD, OR 270/12 KT,
AS MIRIAM CONTINUES TO BE STEERED AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NORTHEAST OF


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 281456
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Miriam Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152018
800 AM PDT Tue Aug 28 2018

A very recently arriving high-resolution microwave overpass
indicates that Miriam is a sheared tropical cyclone. The GPM pass
shows that the center of Miriam is located well northwest of the
primary mass of deep convection due to moderate northwesterly
shear. The center of the cyclone is located well west of the
earlier position estimates, which has also required a re-location.
The most recent Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, as well as
UW-CIMSS/ADT, support an initial intensity, however, this could be
generous given the recent microwave data.

Environmental conditions are not expected to change over the next
24 hours, with possibly a slight reduction in the shear in 24 to 48
hours. This would suggest that Miriam should only gradually
strengthen over the next couple of days and it is likely to reach
its peak intensity in 2-3 days. After that time, increasing
southwesterly shear and cooler waters are expected to initiate
weakening. By 96 hours, the shear is forecast to become quite
strong and Miriam will be moving over sub 26C SSTs. These
progressively hostile conditions should cause Miriam to become
a post-tropical cyclone by 120 hours. The latest intensity forecast
is close to the FSU Superensemble, and generally in between the ICON
and HCCA consensus models.

The initial motion continues to be due westward, or 270/12 kt,
as Miriam continues to be steered around the southern periphery of
a subtropical ridge. A mid- to upper-level trough northeast of
Hawaii will weaken the western periphery of the ridge over the next
couple of days, and Miriam is forecast to turn northwest then
north-northwest, between the ridge and the aforementioned trough.
Forecast models diverge regarding the forward speed of Miriam
at days 3-5, depending how they handle the interaction of Miriam
with the the trough to its northwest. The ECMWF continues to favor
an accelerating northward track as Miriam gets caught in strong
southerly flow on the eastern side of the trough. The GFS is much
farther southwestward, as it appears to take a more shallow Miriam
westward later in the forecast period. Since the consensus
aids remain clustered between these two scenarios, the latest
forecast NHC track is once again near the various consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 14.2N 135.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 14.2N 136.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 14.3N 138.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 14.7N 140.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 15.6N 141.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 18.5N 141.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 22.0N 142.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 26.0N 144.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Brown/Latto


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 281455
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 28 2018

...MIRIAM CONTINUES WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 135.4W
ABOUT 1355 MI...2180 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 135.4 WEST. MIRIAM IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS,
AND MIRIAM IS STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE WEDNESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB (29.50 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.

....
FORECASTER BROWN/LATTO


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 281455 RRA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
1500 UTC TUE AUG 28 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 135.4W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 135.4W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 134.8W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 14.2N 136.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 14.3N 138.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.7N 140.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 15.6N 141.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 18.5N 141.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 281455
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
1500 UTC TUE AUG 28 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 135.4W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 135.4W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 134.8W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 14.2N 136.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 14.3N 138.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.7N 140.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 15.6N 141.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 18.5N 141.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 22.0N 142.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 26.0N 144.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 135.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/LATTO


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 280838 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 28 2018

MIRIAM'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS STILL NOT IMPROVED VERY MUCH, WITH
MICROWAVE DATA SHOWING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER STILL SLIGHTLY
DISPLACED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO ABOUT 10 KT OF
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB, AS WELL
AS THE UW-CIMSS SATCON, ALL REMAIN NEAR 55 KT, WHICH WILL REMAIN
MIRIAM'S INITIAL INTENSITY. MIRIAM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM
WATERS AND IN A RELATIVELY LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 48-72
HOURS, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO STRENGTHEN MODESTLY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND, MIRIAM WILL ENCOUNTER
SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER SHEAR AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, AND THE
CYCLONE WILL ALSO MOVE OVER SUB-26C WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
CAUSE A RATHER QUICK WEAKENING TREND ON DAYS 4 AND 5, WITH MIRIAM
BARELY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL STORM BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT ON THIS
FORECAST CYCLE, PROBABLY BECAUSE MIRIAM HAS LESS TIME BEFORE IT
REACHES STRONGER SHEAR. THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST LIES
BETWEEN THE HCCA GUIDANCE AND THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS, WITH THE
FORECAST PEAK INTENSITY JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW THAT OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS DUE WESTWARD, OR 270/10 KT, WITH MIRIAM
LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE
AMPLIFYING TROUGH NORTHEAST OF HAWAII IS BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE AND
SHOULD CAUSE MIRIAM TO TURN SHARPLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 280838
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Miriam Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152018
200 AM PDT Tue Aug 28 2018

Miriam's cloud pattern has still not improved very much, with
microwave data showing the low-level center still slightly
displaced from the deep convection due to about 10 kt of
northwesterly shear. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, as well
as the UW-CIMSS SATCON, all remain near 55 kt, which will remain
Miriam's initial intensity. Miriam is expected to remain over warm
waters and in a relatively low-shear environment for the next 48-72
hours, which should allow the cyclone to strengthen modestly over
the next few days. At 72 hours and beyond, Miriam will encounter
significantly stronger shear ahead of an amplifying mid- to
upper-level trough northeast of the Hawaiian Islands, and the
cyclone will also move over sub-26C waters. These conditions should
cause a rather quick weakening trend on days 4 and 5, with Miriam
barely hanging on as a tropical storm by the end of the forecast
period. The intensity guidance has decreased somewhat on this
forecast cycle, probably because Miriam has less time before it
reaches stronger shear. The updated NHC intensity forecast lies
between the HCCA guidance and the IVCN intensity consensus, with the
forecast peak intensity just slightly below that of the previous
advisory.

The initial motion is due westward, or 270/10 kt, with Miriam
located along the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge. The
amplifying trough northeast of Hawaii is breaking down the ridge and
should cause Miriam to turn sharply toward the northwest and north
between days 2 and 4. There are significant speed differences among
the models by days 4 and 5, related to how deep Miriam is when it
interacts with the deep-layer trough. The ECMWF, which maintains a
deeper, stronger vortex, shoots Miriam quickly northward, ending up
more than 600-700 nm north of where the GFS and HWRF models have the
cyclone by day 5. Given where the consensus aids lie between those
two extremes, the updated NHC track forecast has been slowed down a
bit from the previous forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 14.0N 133.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 14.0N 135.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 14.1N 137.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 14.4N 138.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 15.1N 140.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 31/0600Z 17.9N 141.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 01/0600Z 21.5N 141.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 02/0600Z 26.0N 144.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 280838
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 28 2018

...MIRIAM MOVING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 133.5W
ABOUT 1480 MI...2380 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 133.5 WEST. MIRIAM IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS,
AND MIRIAM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB (29.50 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

....
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 280837 RRA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
0900 UTC TUE AUG 28 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 133.5W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 45SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 133.5W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 133.0W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 14.0N 135.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 14.1N 137.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 14.4N 138.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 15.1N 140.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 17.9N 141.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 280837
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
0900 UTC TUE AUG 28 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 133.5W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 45SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 133.5W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 133.0W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 14.0N 135.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 14.1N 137.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 14.4N 138.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 15.1N 140.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 17.9N 141.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 21.5N 141.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 26.0N 144.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 133.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 281000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15E (MIRIAM) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 14.0N 133.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N 133.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 14.0N 135.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 14.1N 137.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 14.4N 138.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 15.1N 140.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 17.9N 141.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 21.5N 141.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 26.0N 144.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
281000Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 133.7W.
TROPICAL STORM 15E (MIRIAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1313 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 281600Z, 282200Z, 290400Z AND 291000Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 280402

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 28.08.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 90E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N 110.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP902018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.08.2018 0 15.2N 110.2W 1007 18
1200UTC 28.08.2018 12 16.3N 110.6W 1006 19
0000UTC 29.08.2018 24 17.6N 113.2W 1005 23
1200UTC 29.08.2018 36 17.8N 115.6W 1003 27
0000UTC 30.08.2018 48 18.0N 117.7W 1000 33
1200UTC 30.08.2018 60 17.8N 119.5W 996 37
0000UTC 31.08.2018 72 17.5N 121.6W 991 45
1200UTC 31.08.2018 84 16.7N 123.7W 988 50
0000UTC 01.09.2018 96 15.5N 125.9W 983 52
1200UTC 01.09.2018 108 14.4N 127.9W 979 55
0000UTC 02.09.2018 120 13.8N 129.7W 980 56
1200UTC 02.09.2018 132 13.5N 131.6W 978 56
0000UTC 03.09.2018 144 13.8N 133.4W 978 55

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.8N 166.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.08.2018 0 18.8N 166.6W 1006 27
1200UTC 28.08.2018 12 18.9N 168.0W 1006 25
0000UTC 29.08.2018 24 20.0N 168.8W 1006 28
1200UTC 29.08.2018 36 20.9N 169.0W 1007 29
0000UTC 30.08.2018 48 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM ANALYSED POSITION : 14.0N 132.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.08.2018 0 14.0N 132.7W 993 44
1200UTC 28.08.2018 12 13.9N 135.1W 989 57
0000UTC 29.08.2018 24 14.2N 137.5W 989 59
1200UTC 29.08.2018 36 14.3N 139.6W 984 56
0000UTC 30.08.2018 48 14.7N 141.2W 987 53
1200UTC 30.08.2018 60 15.3N 142.0W 985 55
0000UTC 31.08.2018 72 16.9N 142.0W 983 60
1200UTC 31.08.2018 84 19.1N 141.2W 981 63
0000UTC 01.09.2018 96 21.3N 141.3W 992 53
1200UTC 01.09.2018 108 23.4N 142.4W 1000 41
0000UTC 02.09.2018 120 25.7N 144.1W 1005 34
1200UTC 02.09.2018 132 28.0N 146.6W 1008 32
0000UTC 03.09.2018 144 29.9N 148.5W 1009 30

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 12.6N 165.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.09.2018 96 12.4N 166.2W 1005 23
1200UTC 01.09.2018 108 12.3N 166.6W 1004 26
0000UTC 02.09.2018 120 12.4N 166.6W 1001 29
1200UTC 02.09.2018 132 12.5N 166.5W 997 35
0000UTC 03.09.2018 144 13.1N 166.7W 994 40

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 16.8N 112.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.09.2018 108 16.8N 112.8W 1003 27
0000UTC 02.09.2018 120 17.5N 114.2W 1000 30
1200UTC 02.09.2018 132 18.7N 115.4W 997 30
0000UTC 03.09.2018 144 19.2N 116.5W 993 47


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 280402


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 280402

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 28.08.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 90E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N 110.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP902018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 28.08.2018 15.2N 110.2W WEAK
12UTC 28.08.2018 16.3N 110.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.08.2018 17.6N 113.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2018 17.8N 115.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2018 18.0N 117.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2018 17.8N 119.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2018 17.5N 121.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 31.08.2018 16.7N 123.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2018 15.5N 125.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.09.2018 14.4N 127.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.09.2018 13.8N 129.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.09.2018 13.5N 131.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.09.2018 13.8N 133.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.8N 166.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 28.08.2018 18.8N 166.6W WEAK
12UTC 28.08.2018 18.9N 168.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.08.2018 20.0N 168.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2018 20.9N 169.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM ANALYSED POSITION : 14.0N 132.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 28.08.2018 14.0N 132.7W MODERATE
12UTC 28.08.2018 13.9N 135.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.08.2018 14.2N 137.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2018 14.3N 139.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.08.2018 14.7N 141.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2018 15.3N 142.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2018 16.9N 142.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.08.2018 19.1N 141.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2018 21.3N 141.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.09.2018 23.4N 142.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.09.2018 25.7N 144.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.09.2018 28.0N 146.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.09.2018 29.9N 148.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 12.6N 165.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 01.09.2018 12.4N 166.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.09.2018 12.3N 166.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.09.2018 12.4N 166.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.09.2018 12.5N 166.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.09.2018 13.1N 166.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 16.8N 112.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.09.2018 16.8N 112.8W WEAK
00UTC 02.09.2018 17.5N 114.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.09.2018 18.7N 115.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.09.2018 19.2N 116.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 280402


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 280235 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
800 PM PDT MON AUG 27 2018

MIRIAM HASN'T CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. LAST-LIGHT
VISIBLE IMAGERY AND A COUPLE OF MICROWAVE OVERPASSES AROUND 0000 UTC
SHOW THAT THE TROPICAL STORM REMAINS LIGHTLY SHEARED FROM THE
NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH OUTFLOW FROM THE DEEPEST INNER-CORE CONVECTION
SEEMS TO HAVE BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED, CLOUD TOPS FROM OUTER BANDS
TO THE NORTH AND EAST ARE STILL MOVING TOWARD THE CENTER OF THE
CYCLONE, INDICATING THERE IS STILL SHEAR BELOW THE OUTFLOW LAYER.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 55 KT, IN AGREEMENT WITH
NEARLY ALL OF THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES.

MIRIAM CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD, AND THE FORWARD SPEED IS NOW 10
KT. THE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF
MIRIAM FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS, WITH ONLY SLIGHT SPEED DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS. BEYOND THAT TIME, THE TROPICAL STORM
SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC. THE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES DRASTICALLY AT THIS
POINT, WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A QUICKER TURN AND A FASTER
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THAN THE GFS, WITH MOST OF THE OTHER
GUIDANCE IN BETWEEN. FOR NOW, THE NHC FORECAST HAS NOT BEEN
SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED, AND REMAINS NEAR THE CORRECTED CONSENSUS,
HCCA.

THE MODERATE SHEAR CURRENTLY AFFECTING MIRIAM IS FORECAST BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 H OR SO, PREVENTING THE
CYCLONE FROM STRENGTHENING SIGNIFICANTLY. BETWEEN 24 AND 72 H, THIS


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 280235
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Miriam Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152018
800 PM PDT Mon Aug 27 2018

Miriam hasn't changed much over the past several hours. Last-light
visible imagery and a couple of microwave overpasses around 0000 UTC
show that the tropical storm remains lightly sheared from the
northwest. Although outflow from the deepest inner-core convection
seems to have become better established, cloud tops from outer bands
to the north and east are still moving toward the center of the
cyclone, indicating there is still shear below the outflow layer.
The initial intensity has been held at 55 kt, in agreement with
nearly all of the objective and subjective satellite estimates.

Miriam continues to move westward, and the forward speed is now 10
kt. The guidance remains in very good agreement on the track of
Miriam for the next 36 hours, with only slight speed differences
between the various models. Beyond that time, the tropical storm
should begin to turn north-northwestward toward a break in the
subtropical ridge created by a mid- to upper-level trough over the
central Pacific. The model spread increases drastically at this
point, with the ECMWF showing a quicker turn and a faster
north-northwestward motion than the GFS, with most of the other
guidance in between. For now, the NHC forecast has not been
significantly changed, and remains near the corrected consensus,
HCCA.

The moderate shear currently affecting Miriam is forecast by the
global models to continue for the next 24 h or so, preventing the
cyclone from strengthening significantly. Between 24 and 72 h, this
shear is forecast to decrease, allowing the cyclone to strengthen at
a quicker rate. By the end of the forecast period, Miriam should
quickly weaken as it encounters higher shear and cooler SSTs. The
HWRF is a notable outlier, showing much faster intensification, but
it is possible this model is not properly representing the shear
currently affecting Miriam. That said, if the shear decreases
sooner than expected, it is possible that Miriam could intensify
much faster than currently anticipated. The new NHC intensity
forecast is close to the intensity consensus, and shows a slightly
slower initial intensification rate for Miriam, and a faster decay
by day 5, than the previous advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 14.0N 132.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 14.0N 134.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 14.0N 136.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 14.2N 138.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 15.0N 139.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 31/0000Z 17.5N 141.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 21.5N 142.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 26.0N 144.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 280234
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
800 PM PDT MON AUG 27 2018

...MIRIAM MAINTAINING STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 132.5W
ABOUT 1545 MI...2485 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 132.5 WEST. MIRIAM IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). THE TROPICAL STORM IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST AT A SIMILAR FORWARD SPEED FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO, BEFORE SLOWING AND TURNING TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST LATER THIS WEEK. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, MIRIAM WILL
REACH THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
AND MIRIAM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB (29.50 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

....
FORECASTER ZELINSKY


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 280234 RRA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
0300 UTC TUE AUG 28 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 132.5W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 45SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 132.5W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 132.1W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 14.0N 134.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 14.0N 136.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 14.2N 138.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 15.0N 139.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 17.5N 141.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 280234
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
0300 UTC TUE AUG 28 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 132.5W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 45SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 132.5W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 132.1W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 14.0N 134.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 14.0N 136.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 14.2N 138.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 15.0N 139.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 17.5N 141.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 21.5N 142.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 26.0N 144.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 132.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 280400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15E (MIRIAM) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 14.0N 132.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N 132.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 14.0N 134.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 14.0N 136.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 14.2N 138.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 15.0N 139.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 17.5N 141.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 21.5N 142.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 26.0N 144.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
280400Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 132.8W.
TROPICAL STORM 15E (MIRIAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1363 NM EAST
OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 281000Z, 281600Z, 282200Z AND 290400Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 272200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15E (MIRIAM) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 14.0N 131.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N 131.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 14.0N 133.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 13.9N 135.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 14.0N 137.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 14.5N 139.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 16.5N 141.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 20.0N 142.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 24.5N 143.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
272200Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 132.0W.
TROPICAL STORM 15E (MIRIAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1361 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 19
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280400Z, 281000Z, 281600Z AND 282200Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 14E (LANE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 272032 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
200 PM PDT MON AUG 27 2018

MIRIAM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY,
AND THE CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED AROUND THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER, THIS HAS NOT YET RESULTED IN AN
INCREASE OF THE VARIOUS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, WHICH REMAIN
MOSTLY NEAR 55 KT. BASED ON THIS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS A
POSSIBLY CONSERVATIVE 55 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
INDICATE NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR AFFECTING MIRIAM,
WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM THE OUTER BAND TO THE NORTH BLOWING INTO THE
CENTRAL CONVECTION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/13. A LARGE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF MIRIAM SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER IT WESTWARD FOR THE
NEXT 36-48 H WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. AFTER THAT,
A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE RIDGE TO BREAK BETWEEN 140W-150W,
WITH MIRIAM TURNING NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD IN
RESPONSE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO, BUT THERE REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES IN MIRIAM'S FORWARD
SPEED AFTER RECURVATURE BETWEEN THE FASTER ECMWF/UKMET AND THE
SLOWER GFS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
TRACK THROUGH 72 H, THEN IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE EAST BASED ON AN
EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE CONSENSUS MODELS.

THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER MIRIAM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, FOLLOWED
BY DECREASED SHEAR FROM 24-48 H. THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE IN THE


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 272032
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Miriam Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152018
200 PM PDT Mon Aug 27 2018

Miriam has become a little better organized since the last advisory,
and the convective banding has become better defined around the
low-level center. However, this has not yet resulted in an
increase of the various satellite intensity estimates, which remain
mostly near 55 kt. Based on this, the initial intensity remains a
possibly conservative 55 kt. Satellite imagery continues to
indicate northwesterly to northerly vertical shear affecting Miriam,
with cirrus clouds from the outer band to the north blowing into the
central convection.

The initial motion is 270/13. A large low- to mid-level ridge to
the north of Miriam should continue to steer it westward for the
next 36-48 h with some decrease in forward speed. After that,
a large mid- to upper-level low to the northeast of the Hawaiian
Islands is expected to cause the ridge to break between 140W-150W,
with Miriam turning northwestward and north-northwestward in
response. The track guidance is in good agreement on this
scenario, but there remain some differences in Miriam's forward
speed after recurvature between the faster ECMWF/UKMET and the
slower GFS. The new forecast track is similar to the previous
track through 72 h, then is nudged a little to the east based on an
eastward shift in the consensus models.

The global models continue to suggest a gradual increase in
northwesterly shear over Miriam during the next day or so, followed
by decreased shear from 24-48 h. There is some divergence in the
intensity guidance through 72 h, with the SHIPS/LGEM models showing
less strengthening than the HWRF/HMON/corrected consensus models.
This part of the new intensity forecast is little changed from the
previous forecast and lies between these two model camps. After
72 h, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler waters are expected
to cause Miriam to weaken.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 14.0N 131.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 14.0N 133.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 13.9N 135.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 14.0N 137.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 14.5N 139.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 16.5N 141.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 31/1800Z 20.0N 142.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 01/1800Z 24.5N 143.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 272032 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
200 PM PDT MON AUG 27 2018

...MIRIAM SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...
................EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR ON
TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 131.8W
ABOUT 1560 MI...2505 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 131.8 WEST. MIRIAM IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, MIRIAM WILL APPROACH
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS, AND
MIRIAM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB (29.47 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 272032
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
200 PM PDT MON AUG 27 2018

...MIRIAM SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...
...............EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 131.8W
ABOUT 1560 MI...2505 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 131.8 WEST. MIRIAM IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, MIRIAM WILL APPROACH
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS, AND
MIRIAM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB (29.47 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

..............
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 272031 RRA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
2100 UTC MON AUG 27 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 131.8W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 131.8W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 131.2W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 14.0N 133.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 13.9N 135.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 14.0N 137.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 14.5N 139.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 16.5N 141.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 272031
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
2100 UTC MON AUG 27 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 131.8W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 131.8W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 131.2W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 14.0N 133.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 13.9N 135.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 14.0N 137.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 14.5N 139.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 16.5N 141.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 20.0N 142.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 24.5N 143.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 131.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 271602

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 27.08.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 90E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 108.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP902018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.08.2018 0 14.2N 108.1W 1009 21
0000UTC 28.08.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.9N 164.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.08.2018 0 18.9N 164.8W 1004 30
0000UTC 28.08.2018 12 18.9N 166.6W 1004 30
1200UTC 28.08.2018 24 19.2N 167.4W 1005 28
0000UTC 29.08.2018 36 20.3N 168.1W 1005 28
1200UTC 29.08.2018 48 22.6N 168.3W 1005 31
0000UTC 30.08.2018 60 26.4N 169.2W 1006 43
1200UTC 30.08.2018 72 30.1N 172.5W 1002 45
0000UTC 31.08.2018 84 32.4N 176.7W 989 54
1200UTC 31.08.2018 96 33.2N 178.2W 989 59
0000UTC 01.09.2018 108 34.3N 179.0W 992 55
1200UTC 01.09.2018 120 36.4N 179.1W 994 48
0000UTC 02.09.2018 132 38.0N 178.8W 992 45
1200UTC 02.09.2018 144 38.2N 178.6W 997 32

TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 130.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.08.2018 0 13.9N 130.3W 992 46
0000UTC 28.08.2018 12 13.8N 132.6W 989 51
1200UTC 28.08.2018 24 13.8N 135.0W 988 58
0000UTC 29.08.2018 36 14.0N 137.4W 988 61
1200UTC 29.08.2018 48 14.1N 139.5W 986 61
0000UTC 30.08.2018 60 14.7N 141.0W 986 53
1200UTC 30.08.2018 72 15.6N 141.6W 984 60
0000UTC 31.08.2018 84 17.4N 141.4W 982 63
1200UTC 31.08.2018 96 19.8N 140.8W 983 66
0000UTC 01.09.2018 108 21.9N 141.3W 995 48
1200UTC 01.09.2018 120 24.4N 142.5W 1003 37
0000UTC 02.09.2018 132 27.3N 144.6W 1007 33
1200UTC 02.09.2018 144 30.0N 147.4W 1010 30

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 16.8N 112.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.08.2018 36 17.4N 113.4W 1005 25
1200UTC 29.08.2018 48 18.0N 115.8W 1001 32
0000UTC 30.08.2018 60 18.4N 118.1W 996 40
1200UTC 30.08.2018 72 18.3N 120.2W 992 46
0000UTC 31.08.2018 84 18.1N 122.1W 988 50
1200UTC 31.08.2018 96 17.6N 124.0W 986 54
0000UTC 01.09.2018 108 16.8N 126.2W 984 55
1200UTC 01.09.2018 120 15.8N 128.5W 982 55
0000UTC 02.09.2018 132 15.3N 131.2W 983 56
1200UTC 02.09.2018 144 14.8N 134.2W 982 54

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 16.3N 112.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.09.2018 144 16.3N 112.1W 1003 27


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 271602


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 271602

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 27.08.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 90E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 108.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP902018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 27.08.2018 14.2N 108.1W WEAK
00UTC 28.08.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.9N 164.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 27.08.2018 18.9N 164.8W WEAK
00UTC 28.08.2018 18.9N 166.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.08.2018 19.2N 167.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.08.2018 20.3N 168.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2018 22.6N 168.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2018 26.4N 169.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2018 30.1N 172.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 31.08.2018 32.4N 176.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 31.08.2018 33.2N 178.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2018 34.3N 179.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.09.2018 36.4N 179.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.09.2018 38.0N 178.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.09.2018 38.2N 178.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 130.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 27.08.2018 13.9N 130.3W MODERATE
00UTC 28.08.2018 13.8N 132.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.08.2018 13.8N 135.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.08.2018 14.0N 137.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2018 14.1N 139.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2018 14.7N 141.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2018 15.6N 141.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2018 17.4N 141.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.08.2018 19.8N 140.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2018 21.9N 141.3W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 01.09.2018 24.4N 142.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.09.2018 27.3N 144.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.09.2018 30.0N 147.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 16.8N 112.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.08.2018 17.4N 113.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 29.08.2018 18.0N 115.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2018 18.4N 118.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.08.2018 18.3N 120.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2018 18.1N 122.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 31.08.2018 17.6N 124.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2018 16.8N 126.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.09.2018 15.8N 128.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.09.2018 15.3N 131.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.09.2018 14.8N 134.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 16.3N 112.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 02.09.2018 16.3N 112.1W WEAK


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 271602


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 271436 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
800 AM PDT MON AUG 27 2018

THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF MIRIAM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS MORNING, WITH A CONTINUED INCREASE IN OVERALL BANDING. AN
EARLIER AMSR2 MICROWAVE OVERPASS ALSO REVEALED A WELL-DEFINED BAND
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION BUT
THERE WAS SOME EVIDENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR WITH THE CENTER NEAR
THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KT, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A
DVORAK DATA T-NUMBER OF 3.5 FROM TAFB, EARLIER AMSU DATA, AND
RECENT UW/CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES OF T3.7 (59 KT).

SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT MIRIAM IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 270
DEGREES AT 12 KT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN ON A WESTWARD HEADING
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT IS STEERED BY A LARGE DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. AFTER THAT TIME, A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
A BREAK IN THE RIDGE BETWEEN 140W-150W. THIS SHOULD CAUSE MIRIAM TO
TURN NORTHWESTWARD, THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN DAYS 3 THROUGH
5. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO, BUT
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN MIRIAM'S FORWARD SPEED AFTER
RECURVATURE BEGINS. THE ECMWF AND UKMET TAKE MIRIAM MUCH FASTER
NORTHWARD THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS, AND THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS ONCE AGAIN CLOSE TO THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS AIDS AT
72 H AND BEYOND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SPEED DIFFERENCES.

THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 271436
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Miriam Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152018
800 AM PDT Mon Aug 27 2018

The convective structure of Miriam has become better organized
this morning, with a continued increase in overall banding. An
earlier AMSR2 microwave overpass also revealed a well-defined band
over the southeastern and southern portions of the circulation but
there was some evidence of northwesterly shear with the center near
the northwestern edge of the primary convective band. The initial
intensity has been increased to 55 kt, which is supported by a
Dvorak Data T-number of 3.5 from TAFB, earlier AMSU data, and
recent UW/CIMSS ADT estimates of T3.7 (59 kt).

Satellite fixes indicate that Miriam is moving westward or 270
degrees at 12 kt. The cyclone should remain on a westward heading
over the next 48 hours while it is steered by a large deep-layer
ridge to the north. After that time, a large mid- to upper-level
low to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands is expected to produce
a break in the ridge between 140W-150W. This should cause Miriam to
turn northwestward, then north-northwestward between days 3 through
5. The track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, but
there are some differences in Miriam's forward speed after
recurvature begins. The ECMWF and UKMET take Miriam much faster
northward than the remainder of the dynamical models, and the NHC
track forecast is once again close to the various consensus aids at
72 h and beyond to account for the speed differences.

The global models suggest that there will be a gradual increase in
northwesterly shear over Miriam during the next day or so, however,
this is not expected to prevent the cyclone from becoming a
hurricane within the next 24 hours. The moderate shear is forecast
to relax by Tuesday night, which should allow for additional
intensification. The intensity guidance is not quite as aggressive
as before, and the NHC intensity forecast, which lies between the
IVCN intensity consensus model and the HFIP corrected consensus, has
been adjusted slightly downward. Increasingly southwesterly
vertical wind shear and cooler waters are expected to cause Miriam
to weaken late in the forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 13.9N 130.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 13.9N 132.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 13.8N 134.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 13.9N 136.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 14.1N 138.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 15.5N 140.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 31/1200Z 18.7N 141.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 01/1200Z 23.3N 143.2W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 271435
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
800 AM PDT MON AUG 27 2018

...MIRIAM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 130.5W
ABOUT 1485 MI...2385 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 130.5 WEST. MIRIAM IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, MIRIAM WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN
LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS, AND MIRIAM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE
TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB (29.50 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.

....
FORECASTER BROWN


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 271435 RRA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
1500 UTC MON AUG 27 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 130.5W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 130.5W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 129.9W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 13.9N 132.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 13.8N 134.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 13.9N 136.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 14.1N 138.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 15.5N 140.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 271435
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
1500 UTC MON AUG 27 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 130.5W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 130.5W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 129.9W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 13.9N 132.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 13.8N 134.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 13.9N 136.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 14.1N 138.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 15.5N 140.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 18.7N 141.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 23.3N 143.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 130.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 271600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15E (MIRIAM) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 13.9N 129.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 129.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 13.9N 132.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 13.8N 134.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 13.9N 136.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 14.1N 138.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 15.5N 140.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 18.7N 141.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 23.3N 143.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
271600Z POSITION NEAR 13.9N 130.7W.
TROPICAL STORM 15E (MIRIAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1328 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 19
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272200Z, 280400Z, 281000Z AND 281600Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 270835 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
200 AM PDT MON AUG 27 2018

...MIRIAM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
......................................................................
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
.....C
....CO
...COU
..COUL
.COULD
BECOME
A
HURRICANE
BY
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 129.2W
ABOUT 1405 MI...2265 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 129.2 WEST. MIRIAM IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H) AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND
MIRIAM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB (29.53 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 270835 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
200 AM PDT MON AUG 27 2018

MIRIAM'S CLOUD PATTERN AND OVERALL CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAVE
CONTINUED TO IMPROVE, WITH A TIGHT COMMA-CLOUD PATTERN NOW EVIDENT
IN INFRARED IMAGERY. TWO RECENT ASCAT PASSES AROUND 0600Z INDICATE
THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW LOCATED JUST INSIDE THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE CONVECTIVE COMMA HEAD, AND THAT THE RADIUS OF
MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) IS STILL ABOUT 20 NMI THAT WAS ASCERTAINED FROM
EARLIER PASSIVE MICROWAVE LOW-LEVEL RING DATA. THE ASCAT DATA
INDICATED PEAK WINDS OF ONLY 37 KT, BUT THIS IS LIKELY AN
UNDERESTIMATE OF MIRIAM'S ACTUAL INTENSITY DUE TO A) THE DATA HAVING
BEEN LOCATED NEAR THE SWATH EDGE AND B) DUE TO MIRIAM'S SMALL RMW.
THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 50 KT IS BASED ON A AVERAGE OF SUBJECTIVE
AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT RANGE FROM T3.0/45
KT TO T3.6/57 KT, RESPECTIVELY. THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY'S 34-KT WIND
RADII REMAIN UNCHANGED BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT WIND DATA.

MIRIAM IS NOW MOVING DUE WEST OR 270/13 KT. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 72 H AS
MIRIAM MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG RIDGE TO ITS
NORTH. BY 96 H AND BEYOND, MIRIAM IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR
CREATED BY A STRONG MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW FORECAST TO DROP
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 140W-150W FROM THE UPPER-LOW'S CURRENT POSITION
OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 270835
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Miriam Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152018
200 AM PDT Mon Aug 27 2018

Miriam's cloud pattern and overall convective organization have
continued to improve, with a tight comma-cloud pattern now evident
in infrared imagery. Two recent ASCAT passes around 0600Z indicate
that the low-level center is now located just inside the northwest
quadrant of the convective comma head, and that the radius of
maximum winds (RMW) is still about 20 nmi that was ascertained from
earlier passive microwave low-level ring data. The ASCAT data
indicated peak winds of only 37 kt, but this is likely an
underestimate of Miriam's actual intensity due to a) the data having
been located near the swath edge and b) due to Miriam's small RMW.
The advisory intensity of 50 kt is based on a average of subjective
and objective satellite intensity estimates that range from T3.0/45
kt to T3.6/57 kt, respectively. The previous advisory's 34-kt wind
radii remain unchanged based on the aforementioned ASCAT wind data.

Miriam is now moving due west or 270/13 kt. There are no significant
changes to the previous forecast track or reasoning. The cyclone is
expected to maintain a general westward motion for the next 72 h as
Miriam moves along the southern periphery of a strong ridge to its
north. By 96 h and beyond, Miriam is forecast to move northward to
north-northwestward through a break in the subtropical ridge near
created by a strong mid- to upper-level trough/low forecast to drop
southward between 140W-150W from the upper-low's current position
over the central North Pacific. The latest model guidance has come
into better agreement on both the timing and location of the
northward turn, although noticeable speed differences still exist,
with the ECMWF and UKMET being the faster models. The NHC official
forecast track lies close to the previous advisory track, and is
just a tad north of the HCCA, FSSE, and TVCN consensus models.

Steady strengthening still appears likely for the next couple of
days. Miriam's upper-level outflow has improved some and is less
restricted in the northwest quadrant, a signal that the shear is
beginning to relax, which would support steady or significant
strengthening in the short term. By 36-48 h, however, the shear is
forecast by the global models to again increase to 15-20 kt from the
northwest, which should inhibit the intensification process during
that time. Around 72 h, the shear is expected to decrease yet again,
followed by another increase in the shear. Rather than showing
roller-coaster fluctuations, the NHC intensity forecast just calls
for steady strengthening through 48-72 h, followed by a gradual
weakening trend, which mirrors the previous advisory trend and is
close to an average of the HCCA and FSSE intensity models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 13.9N 129.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 13.9N 130.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 13.8N 133.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 13.8N 135.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 14.0N 137.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 14.7N 140.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 31/0600Z 17.5N 141.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 01/0600Z 22.0N 142.4W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 270835
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
200 AM PDT MON AUG 27 2018

...MIRIAM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
.................COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 129.2W
ABOUT 1405 MI...2265 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 129.2 WEST. MIRIAM IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H) AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND
MIRIAM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB (29.53 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

................
FORECASTER STEWART


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 270835 RRA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
0900 UTC MON AUG 27 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 129.2W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 129.2W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 128.6W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 13.9N 130.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 13.8N 133.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 13.8N 135.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 14.0N 137.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 14.7N 140.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 270835
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
0900 UTC MON AUG 27 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 129.2W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 129.2W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 128.6W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 13.9N 130.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 13.8N 133.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 13.8N 135.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 14.0N 137.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 14.7N 140.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 17.5N 141.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 22.0N 142.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 129.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 271000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15E (MIRIAM) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 13.9N 128.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 128.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 13.9N 130.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 13.8N 133.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 13.8N 135.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 14.0N 137.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 14.7N 140.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 17.5N 141.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 22.0N 142.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
271000Z POSITION NEAR 13.9N 129.4W.
TROPICAL STORM 15E (MIRIAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1292 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271600Z, 272200Z, 280400Z AND 281000Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 270242 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 26 2018

...MIRIAM GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING...
......................................................................
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
.....C
....CO
...COU
..COUL
.COULD
BECOME
A
HURRICANE
ON
MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 127.9W
ABOUT 1335 MI...2150 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 127.9 WEST. MIRIAM IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H). THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND MIRIAM IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB (29.56 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 270404

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 27.08.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 90E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.3N 104.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP902018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.08.2018 0 14.3N 104.4W 1008 15
1200UTC 27.08.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.9N 163.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.08.2018 0 18.9N 163.1W 1005 28
1200UTC 27.08.2018 12 18.9N 165.0W 1006 28
0000UTC 28.08.2018 24 18.9N 166.0W 1006 26
1200UTC 28.08.2018 36 19.2N 167.1W 1005 26
0000UTC 29.08.2018 48 20.6N 167.6W 1005 29
1200UTC 29.08.2018 60 22.6N 167.8W 1006 31
0000UTC 30.08.2018 72 26.1N 168.5W 1008 36
1200UTC 30.08.2018 84 29.7N 171.6W 1006 43
0000UTC 31.08.2018 96 32.9N 175.4W 1000 40
1200UTC 31.08.2018 108 34.2N 177.7W 994 49
0000UTC 01.09.2018 120 36.1N 178.4W 993 53
1200UTC 01.09.2018 132 38.8N 177.9W 991 52
0000UTC 02.09.2018 144 41.5N 177.3W 989 48

TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM ANALYSED POSITION : 13.8N 127.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.08.2018 0 13.8N 127.5W 997 45
1200UTC 27.08.2018 12 14.2N 130.1W 994 46
0000UTC 28.08.2018 24 14.2N 132.6W 992 49
1200UTC 28.08.2018 36 14.5N 134.9W 993 49
0000UTC 29.08.2018 48 15.0N 137.1W 995 47
1200UTC 29.08.2018 60 15.5N 139.3W 997 40
0000UTC 30.08.2018 72 15.7N 140.8W 998 35
1200UTC 30.08.2018 84 16.5N 141.2W 999 37
0000UTC 31.08.2018 96 18.8N 140.9W 998 40
1200UTC 31.08.2018 108 21.2N 141.3W 1001 37
0000UTC 01.09.2018 120 23.4N 142.5W 1003 33
1200UTC 01.09.2018 132 26.0N 144.6W 1006 32
0000UTC 02.09.2018 144 28.9N 147.4W 1007 35

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 16.6N 113.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.08.2018 48 17.0N 114.2W 1004 27
1200UTC 29.08.2018 60 17.5N 116.5W 1000 38
0000UTC 30.08.2018 72 18.1N 118.9W 997 41
1200UTC 30.08.2018 84 18.3N 121.0W 995 45
0000UTC 31.08.2018 96 18.7N 123.1W 992 53
1200UTC 31.08.2018 108 18.9N 125.0W 991 49
0000UTC 01.09.2018 120 18.8N 127.3W 991 49
1200UTC 01.09.2018 132 18.5N 129.9W 992 50
0000UTC 02.09.2018 144 17.8N 133.1W 993 45

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 11.8N 165.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.09.2018 132 11.5N 165.0W 1005 21
0000UTC 02.09.2018 144 12.2N 164.8W 1003 23

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 10.9N 29.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.09.2018 132 10.9N 29.3W 1009 25
0000UTC 02.09.2018 144 13.0N 29.0W 1010 24


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 270404


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 270404

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 27.08.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 90E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.3N 104.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP902018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 27.08.2018 14.3N 104.4W WEAK
12UTC 27.08.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.9N 163.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 27.08.2018 18.9N 163.1W WEAK
12UTC 27.08.2018 18.9N 165.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.08.2018 18.9N 166.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.08.2018 19.2N 167.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.08.2018 20.6N 167.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2018 22.6N 167.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2018 26.1N 168.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2018 29.7N 171.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2018 32.9N 175.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 31.08.2018 34.2N 177.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.09.2018 36.1N 178.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.09.2018 38.8N 177.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.09.2018 41.5N 177.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM ANALYSED POSITION : 13.8N 127.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 27.08.2018 13.8N 127.5W MODERATE
12UTC 27.08.2018 14.2N 130.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.08.2018 14.2N 132.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.08.2018 14.5N 134.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.08.2018 15.0N 137.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2018 15.5N 139.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2018 15.7N 140.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2018 16.5N 141.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2018 18.8N 140.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.08.2018 21.2N 141.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2018 23.4N 142.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.09.2018 26.0N 144.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.09.2018 28.9N 147.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 16.6N 113.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.08.2018 17.0N 114.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 29.08.2018 17.5N 116.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.08.2018 18.1N 118.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2018 18.3N 121.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2018 18.7N 123.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.08.2018 18.9N 125.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2018 18.8N 127.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.09.2018 18.5N 129.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.09.2018 17.8N 133.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 11.8N 165.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.09.2018 11.5N 165.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 02.09.2018 12.2N 164.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 10.9N 29.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.09.2018 10.9N 29.3W WEAK
00UTC 02.09.2018 13.0N 29.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 270404


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 270243 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 26 2018

THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF MIRIAM HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, LIGHT NORTHERLY SHEAR OF ABOUT 10
KT, AS ANALYZED BY UW-CIMSS, SEEMS TO BE PREVENTING THE CYCLONE FROM
STRENGTHENING AT A MORE RAPID PACE. EARLIER ASCAT DATA AND A MORE
RECENT PARTIAL AMSR OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF
MIRIAM IS SLIGHTLY DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST OF MOST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION, BUT IS STILL WELL-EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CIRRUS CANOPY. A
CONSENSUS OF OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
SUGGESTS THAT MIRIAM HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY, SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KT.

THE TROPICAL STORM IS STILL MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 12 KT, AND ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS MOTION WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. BY DAY 4, MIRIAM SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AS IT REACHES A BREAK
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY AN EXTENSIVE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
LOW LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO, BUT STILL DIFFERS ON THE
EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE NORTHWARD TURN. THE NHC FORECAST
THEREFORE REMAINS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, AND IS
ESSENTIALLY A BLEND OF THE HCCA AND TVCX CONSENSUS AIDS AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

STEADY STRENGTHENING IS STILL LIKELY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. WHILE
MIRIAM'S STRUCTURE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID
INTENSIFICATION AT THE MOMENT, THIS COULD CHANGE QUICKLY AND WITH


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 270243
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Miriam Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152018
800 PM PDT Sun Aug 26 2018

The overall cloud pattern of Miriam has continued to gradually
improve this evening. However, light northerly shear of about 10
kt, as analyzed by UW-CIMSS, seems to be preventing the cyclone from
strengthening at a more rapid pace. Earlier ASCAT data and a more
recent partial AMSR overpass indicated that the low-level center of
Miriam is slightly displaced to the northwest of most of the deep
convection, but is still well-embedded within the cirrus canopy. A
consensus of objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates
suggests that Miriam has strengthened a little since the last
advisory, so the initial intensity has been increased to 45 kt.

The tropical storm is still moving westward at around 12 kt, and all
indications are that this motion will continue for the next few
days. By day 4, Miriam should turn northward as it reaches a break
in the subtropical ridge created by an extensive mid- to upper-level
low located over the central North Pacific. The track guidance is
in good agreement on this general scenario, but still differs on the
exact timing and location of the northward turn. The NHC forecast
therefore remains near the middle of the guidance envelope, and is
essentially a blend of the HCCA and TVCX consensus aids and the
previous forecast.

Steady strengthening is still likely for the next day or two. While
Miriam's structure does not appear to be conducive for rapid
intensification at the moment, this could change quickly and with
little warning due to the small size of the cyclone's inner-core.
The model spread increases from 36 h onward, with the dynamical
models indicating continued intensification to major hurricane
strength, while the statistical guidance is much lower. Regardless
of Miriam's peak intensity, by the end of the forecast, steady
weakening is likely as Miriam encounters lower SSTs and higher
shear. The NHC forecast continues to favor the higher dynamical
models for the first couple of days, and closely follows the
intensity consensus after that.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 13.8N 127.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 13.9N 129.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 13.7N 131.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 13.8N 134.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 13.9N 136.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 14.3N 139.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 31/0000Z 16.8N 141.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 01/0000Z 21.0N 141.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 270242
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 26 2018

...MIRIAM GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING...
...........COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 127.9W
ABOUT 1335 MI...2150 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 127.9 WEST. MIRIAM IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H). THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND MIRIAM IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB (29.56 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

..........
FORECASTER ZELINSKY


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 270242 RRA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
0300 UTC MON AUG 27 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 127.9W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 127.9W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 127.3W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 13.9N 129.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 13.7N 131.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 13.8N 134.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 13.9N 136.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.3N 139.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 270242
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
0300 UTC MON AUG 27 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 127.9W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 127.9W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 127.3W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 13.9N 129.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 13.7N 131.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 13.8N 134.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 13.9N 136.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.3N 139.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 16.8N 141.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 21.0N 141.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 127.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 270400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15E (MIRIAM) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 13.8N 127.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8N 127.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 13.9N 129.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 13.7N 131.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 13.8N 134.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 13.9N 136.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 14.3N 139.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 16.8N 141.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 21.0N 141.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
270400Z POSITION NEAR 13.8N 128.1W.
TROPICAL STORM 15E (MIRIAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1264 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271000Z, 271600Z, 272200Z AND 280400Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 262031 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 26 2018

MIRIAM CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THE LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND THAT WRAPS
ABOUT THREE-QUARTERS OF THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER. DESPITE THE
IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION, VERY RECENT ASCAT PASSES SHOW MAXIMUM
WINDS OF ABOUT 35 KT. THEREFORE, THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT
40 KT AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE ASCAT DATA AND THE HIGHER
DVORAK-BASED ESTIMATES.

THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 12 KT. THIS WESTWARD
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE A DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. AFTER
THAT TIME, THE STORM IS FORECAST TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN
THE NORTH AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CAUSES A SIGNIFICANT BREAK IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO,
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN WHERE AND WHEN MIRIAM WILL MAKE THE
NORTHWARD TURN. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, NEAR THE CONSENSUS AIDS.

STEADY STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO
THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS OF LOW WIND SHEAR, HIGH LEVELS
OF MOISTURE, AND WARM SSTS OF 27-28 DEG C. THE LATEST INTENSITY
MODELS ALL SHOW MIRIAM BECOMING A HURRICANE, AND THE HWRF MODEL
SHOWS THE CYCLONE REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE, AND IT IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH HFIP CORRECTED
CONSENSUS APPROACH MODEL. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WHEN


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 262031
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Miriam Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152018
200 PM PDT Sun Aug 26 2018

Miriam continues to gradually become better organized. The latest
visible satellite images show a well-defined curved band that wraps
about three-quarters of the way around the center. Despite the
improvement in organization, very recent ASCAT passes show maximum
winds of about 35 kt. Therefore, the initial wind speed is held at
40 kt as a compromise between the ASCAT data and the higher
Dvorak-based estimates.

The tropical storm is moving westward at about 12 kt. This westward
motion should continue during the next few days while a deep-layer
ridge remains anchored to the north of the tropical cyclone. After
that time, the storm is forecast to turn to the northwest and then
the north as a mid- to upper-level low causes a significant break in
the subtropical ridge. Although the models agree on this scenario,
there are some differences in where and when Miriam will make the
northward turn. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the
guidance envelope, near the consensus aids.

Steady strengthening is likely during the next couple of days due to
the favorable environmental factors of low wind shear, high levels
of moisture, and warm SSTs of 27-28 deg C. The latest intensity
models all show Miriam becoming a hurricane, and the HWRF model
shows the cyclone reaching major hurricane strength. The NHC
intensity forecast continues to lean toward the higher end of the
model guidance, and it is in best agreement with HFIP Corrected
Consensus Approach model. By the end of the forecast period, when
Miriam begins gaining latitude, slow weakening is expected due
to a decrease in SSTs and higher shear.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 13.6N 126.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 13.6N 128.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 13.7N 130.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 13.7N 132.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 13.7N 134.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 13.7N 138.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 15.8N 141.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 31/1800Z 19.7N 141.7W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 262030
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 26 2018

...MIRIAM FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 126.6W
ABOUT 1270 MI...2040 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 126.6 WEST. MIRIAM IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, AND MIRIAM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

....
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 262030 RRA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
2100 UTC SUN AUG 26 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 126.6W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 126.6W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 126.0W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 13.6N 128.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 13.7N 130.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 13.7N 132.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 13.7N 134.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 13.7N 138.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 262030
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
2100 UTC SUN AUG 26 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 126.6W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 126.6W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 126.0W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 13.6N 128.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 13.7N 130.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 13.7N 132.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 13.7N 134.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 13.7N 138.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 15.8N 141.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 19.7N 141.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 126.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 261600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15E (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 13.2N 124.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 124.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 13.3N 127.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 13.5N 129.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 13.5N 131.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 13.5N 133.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 13.5N 137.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 14.9N 140.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 18.5N 142.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
261600Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 125.5W.
TROPICAL STORM 15E (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1242 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z
IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262200Z, 270400Z, 271000Z AND 271600Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 261438 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 26 2018

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED
TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING, WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN BANDING NOTED IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. AN EARLIER
AMSR2 MICROWAVE OVERPASS ALSO REVEALED THE INCREASE IN BANDING, BUT
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS. A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T2.5 (35 K) WAS THE BASIS FOR THE 1200 UTC SYNOPTIC INTENSITY, BUT
WITH THE CONTINUED INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION, THE INITIAL WIND SPEED
FOR THIS ADVISORY HAS BEEN SET TO 40 KT.

MIRIAM IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 275/11 KT. THE TROPICAL STORM SHOULD
REMAIN ON A GENERAL WESTWARD HEADING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE
IT REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE. THE ORIENTATION OF
THE RIDGE MAY SHIFT MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR
SO, WHICH COULD STEER THE TROPICAL STORM ON A TRACK SLIGHTLY SOUTH
OF DUE WEST. THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
SOUTHWARD, SO THE NHC FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY
THROUGH THE FIRST 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME, A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BETWEEN 140W-145W LONGITUDE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE
MIRIAM TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD, THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LATTER PORTION OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS MODEL.

THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF MIRIAM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 261438
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Miriam Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152018
800 AM PDT Sun Aug 26 2018

Deep convection associated with the tropical cyclone has continued
to become better organized this morning, with a significant increase
in banding noted in conventional satellite imagery. An earlier
AMSR2 microwave overpass also revealed the increase in banding, but
the low-level center was located near the northeastern portion of
the main convective mass. A Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of
T2.5 (35 k) was the basis for the 1200 UTC synoptic intensity, but
with the continued increase in organization, the initial wind speed
for this advisory has been set to 40 kt.

Miriam is moving westward or 275/11 kt. The tropical storm should
remain on a general westward heading during the next few days while
it remains to the south of a deep-layer ridge. The orientation of
the ridge may shift more west-southwestward within the next day or
so, which could steer the tropical storm on a track slightly south
of due west. The bulk of the dynamical model guidance has shifted
southward, so the NHC forecast track has been adjusted accordingly
through the first 3 days. After that time, a weakness in the
subtropical ridge between 140W-145W longitude is expected to cause
Miriam to turn northwestward, then north-northwestward by the end
of the forecast period. The latter portion of the official forecast
is similar to the previous advisory and is in best agreement with
the HFIP corrected consensus model.

The environment ahead of Miriam is expected to remain favorable for
strengthening. The tropical storm will be traversing SSTs of 27-28C
and within low vertical wind shear conditions. The NHC intensity
forecast calls for steady intensification during the next few days
and is at the upper-end of the intensity guidance. Although the
various rapid intensification prediction techniques are not
particularly bullish, perhaps due to the low initial intensity of
the cyclone, it would not be surprising if the tropical storm went
through a period of rapid intensification within the next couple of
days. The NHC intensity forecast is closest to the more aggressive
HWRF and HMON dynamical models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 13.2N 125.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 13.3N 127.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 13.5N 129.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 13.5N 131.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 13.5N 133.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 13.5N 137.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 14.9N 140.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 31/1200Z 18.5N 142.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 261438
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 26 2018

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 125.3W
ABOUT 1210 MI...1950 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 125.3 WEST. MIRIAM IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND MIRIAM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.

....
FORECASTER BROWN


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 261437 RRA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
1500 UTC SUN AUG 26 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 125.3W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 125.3W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 124.7W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 13.3N 127.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 13.5N 129.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 13.5N 131.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 13.5N 133.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 13.5N 137.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 14.9N 140.5W


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 261437
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
1500 UTC SUN AUG 26 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 125.3W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 125.3W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 124.7W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 13.3N 127.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 13.5N 129.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 13.5N 131.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 13.5N 133.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 13.5N 137.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 14.9N 140.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 18.5N 142.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 125.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 260838 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
200 AM PDT SUN AUG 26 2018

...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...
......................................................................
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
.....N
....NO
THREAT
TO
ANY
LAND
AREAS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 124.1W
ABOUT 1140 MI...1840 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE
124.1 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH (22
KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE DEPRESSION
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY AND REACH
HURRICANE STRENGTH BY TUESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB (29.77 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 261000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15E (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 13.2N 123.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 123.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 13.5N 126.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 13.7N 128.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 13.9N 130.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 14.1N 132.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 14.3N 136.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 14.9N 140.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 17.4N 141.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
261000Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 124.4W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15E (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1223 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
260600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261600Z, 262200Z, 270400Z AND
271000Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 260842 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
200 AM PDT SUN AUG 26 2018

VARIOUS SATELLITE DATA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, INCLUDING RECENT
ASCAT SCATTEROMETER SURFACE-WIND DATA, INDICATE THAT THE
WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 1000 NMI SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAS BECOME MUCH
BETTER ORGANIZED, AND HAS DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. A
SMALL CDO-LIKE FEATURE HAS FORMED OVER THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER
DEPICTED IN THE ASCAT DATA, AND A RECENT BURST OF COLD CLOUD TOPS OF
-80C HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED JUST WEST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON 0458Z AND 0558Z ASCAT WIND DATA,
WHICH INDICATED WINDS OF 28-30 KT WERE LOCATED 35-40 NMI WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/10 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN SOUTH OF A STRONG DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE
NEXT 96 HOURS, RESULTING IN A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY
FASTER FORWARD SPEED. BY DAY 5, THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
A BREAK IN THE RIDGE CREATED BY A BROAD MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT
IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN PACIFIC BETWEEN
140W-145W LONGITUDE. THE FORECAST TRACK LIES ESSENTIALLY DOWN THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, WHICH IS JUST NORTH OF THE
CONSENSUS MODEL TVCE AND THE GFS MODEL, BUT SOUTH OF THE ECMWF AND
UKMET MODELS. THE HRWF AND HMON MODELS WERE NOT BEING AVAILABLE FOR
THE TVCE CONSENSUS ON THIS CYCLE, SO SOME SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE TRACK IN THE NEXT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED.


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 260842
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152018
200 AM PDT Sun Aug 26 2018

Various satellite data over the past several hours, including recent
ASCAT scatterometer surface-wind data, indicate that the
well-defined low pressure area located about 1000 nmi southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has become much
better organized, and has developed into a tropical depression. A
small CDO-like feature has formed over the well-defined center
depicted in the ASCAT data, and a recent burst of cold cloud tops of
-80C have also developed just west of the center. The initial
intensity of 30 kt is based on 0458Z and 0558Z ASCAT wind data,
which indicated winds of 28-30 kt were located 35-40 nmi west and
southwest of the low-level center.

The initial motion estimate is 280/10 kt. The depression is expected
to remain south of a strong deep-layer subtropical ridge for the
next 96 hours, resulting in a general westward motion at a slightly
faster forward speed. By day 5, the cyclone is forecast to move into
a break in the ridge created by a broad mid-/upper-level trough that
is forecast to dig southward out of the northern Pacific between
140W-145W longitude. The forecast track lies essentially down the
middle of the guidance envelope, which is just north of the
consensus model TVCE and the GFS model, but south of the ECMWF and
UKMET models. The HRWF and HMON models were not being available for
the TVCE consensus on this cycle, so some significant adjustments to
the track in the next advisory may be required.

The cyclone has a radius of maximum winds (RMW) of 35-40 nmi based
on the recent ASCAT data. The combination of the modest RMW, low
vertical wind shear of less than 10 kt, a very moist mid-level
environment, and sea-surface temperatures above 28 deg C, favors
steady intensification and even the possibility of rapid
strengthening. Since this is the first forecast, however, the
intensity forecast is on the conservative side and calls for a
climatological increase of one T-number or 20 kt every 24 h for the
next 48 hours, which is above all of the intensity guidance except
for the Navy COAMPS (CTCI) model. By 96-120 hours, the intensity is
leveled off due to possible entrainment of drier air and an increase
in southwesterly vertical wind shear.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 13.3N 124.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 13.5N 126.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 13.7N 128.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 13.9N 130.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 14.1N 132.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 14.3N 136.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 14.9N 140.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 31/0600Z 17.4N 141.9W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 260838
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
200 AM PDT SUN AUG 26 2018

...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...
..................NO THREAT TO ANY LAND AREAS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 124.1W
ABOUT 1140 MI...1840 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE
124.1 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH (22
KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE DEPRESSION
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY AND REACH
HURRICANE STRENGTH BY TUESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB (29.77 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

.................
FORECASTER STEWART


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 260838 RRA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
0900 UTC SUN AUG 26 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 124.1W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 124.1W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 123.6W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 13.5N 126.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 13.7N 128.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 13.9N 130.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 14.1N 132.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 14.3N 136.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 14.9N 140.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 17.4N 141.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 260838
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152018
0900 UTC SUN AUG 26 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 124.1W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 124.1W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 123.6W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 13.5N 126.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 13.7N 128.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 13.9N 130.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 14.1N 132.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 14.3N 136.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 14.9N 140.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 17.4N 141.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 124.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART