Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for NORMAN-18
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones (WT) or Tsunami (WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present. The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

2018-09-07 02:31

WTPN33 PHNC 062200 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN) WARNING NR 039A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN) WARNING NR 039A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 21.7N 151.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7N 151.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 22.8N 152.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 23.8N 153.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 24.9N 154.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 26.0N 155.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 28.0N 157.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 30.0N 158.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 32.0N 160.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
070600Z POSITION NEAR 22.2N 151.9W.
HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 071000Z, 071600Z, 072200Z AND 080400Z.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: ADDED MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT.//
NNNN

2018-09-05 15:31

WTPN33 PHNC 051600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN) WARNING NR 034
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 19.5N 147.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 147.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.8N 148.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 20.4N 150.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 21.4N 151.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 22.6N 152.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 24.9N 154.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 27.0N 156.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 28.6N 158.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
051600Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 147.8W.
HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 447 NM EAST OF
HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 052200Z, 060400Z, 061000Z AND 061600Z.//
NNNN

2018-09-05 09:31

WTPN33 PHNC 051000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN) WARNING NR 033
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 19.7N 146.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 146.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.8N 147.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 20.4N 149.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 21.3N 150.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 22.5N 151.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 25.2N 153.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 27.5N 155.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 29.5N 156.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
051000Z POSITION NEAR 19.7N 146.7W.
HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 508 NM EAST OF
HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 051600Z, 052200Z, 060400Z AND 061000Z.//
NNNN

2018-09-05 03:31

WTPN33 PHNC 050400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 19.8N 145.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 145.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 19.9N 147.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 20.2N 148.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 21.1N 150.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 22.2N 151.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 25.0N 153.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 27.6N 154.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 29.9N 156.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
050400Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 145.7W.
HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 565 NM EAST OF
HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 051000Z, 051600Z, 052200Z AND 060400Z.//
NNNN

2018-09-04 21:31

WTPN33 PHNC 042200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN) WARNING NR 031//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN) WARNING NR 031
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 19.8N 143.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 143.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.9N 146.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 20.0N 147.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 20.7N 149.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 21.7N 150.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 24.3N 152.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 27.0N 154.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 29.5N 155.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
042200Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 144.6W.
HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 632 NM EAST OF
HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 050400Z, 051000Z, 051600Z AND 052200Z.//
NNNN

2018-09-04 15:31

WTPN33 PHNC 041600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN) WARNING NR 030//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 19.9N 142.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9N 142.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.9N 145.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 19.9N 147.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 20.4N 148.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 21.2N 149.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 23.6N 151.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 26.5N 154.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 29.0N 155.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
041600Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 143.4W.
HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 706 NM EAST OF
HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 042200Z, 050400Z, 051000Z AND 051600Z.//
NNNN

2018-09-04 10:31

WTPN33 PHNC 041000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 19.9N 141.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9N 141.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 20.0N 143.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 20.0N 145.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 20.3N 147.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 20.9N 149.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 23.3N 151.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 26.0N 153.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 29.0N 155.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
041000Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 141.9W.
HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 796 NM EAST OF
HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 041600Z, 042200Z, 050400Z AND 051000Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17E (OLIVIA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-09-04 09:31

WTPA44 PHFO 040856 RRA
TCDCP4

HURRICANE NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP162018
1100 PM HST MON SEP 03 2018

NORMAN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING. THE FINAL VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY SHOWED A CLOUD-FILLED EYE, AND CLOUD
TOPS HAVE WARMED FURTHER DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 4.5/77 KT FROM PHFO,
AND 4.0/65 KT FROM SAB/JTWC, WHILE THE LATEST CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE IS
4.2/70 KT. A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES SUPPORTS LOWERING THE INITIAL
INTENSITY TO 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE HURRICANE HAS TURNED SLIGHTLY TO AN ALMOST DUE WEST TRACK THIS
EVENING, AND IT APPEARS THAT THE ANTICIPATED DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED HAS BEGUN. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/15 KT, WHICH IS
A FEW KNOTS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. WESTWARD MOTION WITH
A FURTHER DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS NORMAN NEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER, THE
CYCLONE WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THEN TO THE
NORTHWEST AS IT MOVES AROUND THE END OF THE RIDGE AND IS
INCREASINGLY STEERED BY A LARGE DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC. MOST OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS TURN. THE CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE HCCA, TVCE AND FSSE ARE TIGHTLY PACKED AND IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS, THEN
SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT THEREAFTER. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND GENERALLY LIES VERY CLOSE

2018-09-04 09:31

WTPA44 PHFO 040856
TCDCP4

Hurricane Norman Discussion Number 29
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP162018
1100 PM HST Mon Sep 03 2018

Norman continues to weaken this evening. The final visible
satellite images of the day showed a cloud-filled eye, and cloud
tops have warmed further during the past several hours. Subjective
Dvorak current intensity estimates came in at 4.5/77 kt from PHFO,
and 4.0/65 kt from SAB/JTWC, while the latest CIMSS ADT estimate is
4.2/70 kt. A blend of these estimates supports lowering the initial
intensity to 75 kt for this advisory.

The hurricane has turned slightly to an almost due west track this
evening, and it appears that the anticipated decrease in forward
speed has begun. The initial motion estimate is 275/15 kt, which is
a few knots slower than the previous advisory. Westward motion with
a further decrease in forward speed is expected to continue through
the next 36 hours as Norman nears the southwestern periphery of a
strong subtropical ridge centered to the northeast. Thereafter, the
cyclone will gradually turn to the west-northwest then to the
northwest as it moves around the end of the ridge and is
increasingly steered by a large deep-layered trough over the North
Pacific. Most of the reliable guidance has come into better
agreement with the location and timing of this turn. The consensus
guidance HCCA, TVCE and FSSE are tightly packed and in good
agreement with the previous official forecast through 48 hours, then
shift slightly to the right thereafter. The new official forecast is
very similar to the previous forecast, and generally lies very close
to the consensus aids in the middle of the guidance envelope.

The CIMSS initial vertical wind shear estimate was 10 kt, and SHIPS
guidance shows light shear continuing for another 48 hours as
Norman continues tracking around the subtropical ridge. The main
issue causing weakening for the hurricane at present appears to be
marginal sea surface temperatures and ocean heat content. CIRA
analysis shows that Norman should move into an area of slightly more
favorable OHC after about 12 more hours, and the guidance shows
intensity flattening out from 12 through 48 hours. Norman may
actually re-intensity a bit during that time period, but opted to
keep the intensity forecast level at 70 kt for this advisory.
Thereafter, a rapid increase in wind shear, a drier surrounding
airmass, and progressively cooler sea surface temperatures should
cause steady weakening. The new intensity forecast is similar to
the previous, and in good agreement with the consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 19.9N 141.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 20.0N 143.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 20.0N 145.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 20.3N 147.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 20.9N 149.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 23.3N 151.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 26.0N 153.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 29.0N 155.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Jacobson

2018-09-04 09:31

WTPA34 PHFO 040849
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORMAN ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP162018
1100 PM HST MON SEP 03 2018

...HURRICANE NORMAN MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...FAR TO THE
EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 141.7W
ABOUT 870 MI...1400 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1050 MI...1690 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORMAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 141.7 WEST. NORMAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH (28 KM/H). A WESTWARD MOTION
WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH (140 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY, BUT
NORMAN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
(185 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB (29.00 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

...
FORECASTER JACOBSON

2018-09-04 09:31

WTPA24 PHFO 040850 RRA
TCMCP4

HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP162018
0900 UTC TUE SEP 04 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 141.7W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..280NE 180SE 180SW 280NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 141.7W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 141.0W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.0N 143.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.0N 145.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 20.3N 147.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 20.9N 149.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.3N 151.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

2018-09-04 09:31

WTPA24 PHFO 040850
TCMCP4

HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP162018
0900 UTC TUE SEP 04 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 141.7W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..280NE 180SE 180SW 280NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 141.7W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 141.0W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.0N 143.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.0N 145.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 20.3N 147.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 20.9N 149.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.3N 151.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 26.0N 153.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 29.0N 155.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 141.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER JACOBSON



2018-09-04 03:31

WTPZ41 KNHC 040235 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
800 PM PDT MON SEP 03 2018

NORMAN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT
THE BANDING FEATURES ARE NOT AS WELL ORGANIZED AS THEY WERE EARLIER
TODAY, AND THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SOME DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE DECREASED, AND A BLEND OF
THE LATEST ESTIMATES SUPPORTS LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 80
KT.

NORMAN CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY WESTWARD AT 18 KT STEERED BY A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH-NORTHEAST. THIS GENERAL
HEADING, BUT WITH A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED, IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE NORMAN NEARS THE EDGE OF
THE RIDGE. THEREAFTER, A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED WHILE NORMAN MOVES AROUND THE RIDGE AND
TOWARD A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. THERE
REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD ON WHERE AND WHEN NORMAN MAKES THE
TURN, BUT THE GUIDANCE DID NOT CHANGE MUCH OVERALL THIS CYCLE.
THEREFORE, ONLY SMALL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY,
AND THIS FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

NORMAN COULD WEAKEN A LITTLE MORE OVERNIGHT AND ON TUESDAY, BUT THE
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE INTENSITY FLATTENING OUT IN THE 24- TO 48-HOUR
TIME PERIOD. AFTER THAT TIME, HOWEVER, A SHARP INCREASE IN SHEAR,
COOLER WATERS, AND A DRIER AIR MASS SHOULD CAUSE MORE SIGNIFICANT
WEAKENING. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IN LINE WITH THE IVCN AND HCCA CONSENSUS MODELS.

NOW THAT NORMAN HAS CROSSED INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN, FUTURE

2018-09-04 03:31

WTPZ41 KNHC 040235
TCDEP1

Hurricane Norman Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018
800 PM PDT Mon Sep 03 2018

Norman continues to slowly weaken. Satellite images indicate that
the banding features are not as well organized as they were earlier
today, and the cloud tops have warmed some during the past few
hours. The Dvorak classifications have decreased, and a blend of
the latest estimates supports lowering the initial intensity to 80
kt.

Norman continues to move quickly westward at 18 kt steered by a
strong subtropical ridge to its north-northeast. This general
heading, but with a significant decrease in forward speed, is
expected during the next day or two while Norman nears the edge of
the ridge. Thereafter, a turn to the northwest and then
north-northwest is expected while Norman moves around the ridge and
toward a large deep-layer trough over the northern Pacific. There
remains a fair amount of spread on where and when Norman makes the
turn, but the guidance did not change much overall this cycle.
Therefore, only small changes were made to the previous advisory,
and this forecast lies close to the middle of the guidance envelope.

Norman could weaken a little more overnight and on Tuesday, but the
guidance shows the intensity flattening out in the 24- to 48-hour
time period. After that time, however, a sharp increase in shear,
cooler waters, and a drier air mass should cause more significant
weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the
previous one and in line with the IVCN and HCCA consensus models.

Now that Norman has crossed into the central Pacific basin, future
advisories on this system will be issued by the Central Pacific
Hurricane Center. These forecasts can be found on the web at
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 19.8N 140.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 20.0N 142.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 20.1N 144.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 20.2N 147.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 20.6N 148.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 22.5N 151.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 25.3N 153.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 28.1N 155.2W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-09-04 03:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 040234 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORMAN ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
800 PM PDT MON SEP 03 2018

...NORMAN MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN...
.................NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE
CENTER...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 140.2W
ABOUT 970 MI...1560 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1150 MI...1850 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORMAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 140.2 WEST. NORMAN IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH (33 KM/H). A WESTWARD MOTION WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH (150 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT NORMAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH
MID-WEEK.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
(165 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB (28.91 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

2018-09-04 03:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 040234
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Norman Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018
800 PM PDT Mon Sep 03 2018

...NORMAN MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN...
...NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 140.2W
ABOUT 970 MI...1560 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1150 MI...1850 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norman was located
near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 140.2 West. Norman is moving
toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). A westward motion with a
decrease in forward speed is expected over the next day or two.
A turn toward the west-northwest is anticipated by late Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is forecast during the
next few days, but Norman is expected to remain a hurricane through
mid-week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Norman. Future information on this system can be
found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center beginning at 1100 PM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP4, WMO
header WTPA34 PHFO, and on the web at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-09-04 03:31

WTPZ21 KNHC 040237 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
0300 UTC TUE SEP 04 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 140.2W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 180SE 210SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 140.2W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 139.4W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.0N 142.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.1N 144.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.2N 147.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 20.6N 148.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.5N 151.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

2018-09-04 03:31

WTPZ21 KNHC 040237
TCMEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
0300 UTC TUE SEP 04 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 140.2W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 180SE 210SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 140.2W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 139.4W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.0N 142.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.1N 144.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.2N 147.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 20.6N 148.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.5N 151.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 25.3N 153.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 28.1N 155.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 140.2W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON NORMAN. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
BEGINNING AT 0900 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP4...WMO HEADER
WTPA24 PHFO.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-09-04 03:31

WTPZ21 KNHC 040234 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
0300 UTC TUE SEP 04 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 140.2W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 10 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 180SE 210SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 140.2W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 139.4W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.0N 142.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.1N 144.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.2N 147.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 20.6N 148.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.5N 151.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

2018-09-04 03:31

WTPZ21 KNHC 040234
TCMEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
0300 UTC TUE SEP 04 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 140.2W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 10 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 180SE 210SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 140.2W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 139.4W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.0N 142.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.1N 144.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.2N 147.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 20.6N 148.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.5N 151.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 25.3N 153.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 28.1N 155.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 140.2W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON NORMAN. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
BEGINNING AT 0900 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP4...WMO HEADER
WTPA24 PHFO.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-09-04 03:31

WTPN33 PHNC 040400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN) WARNING NR 028
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 19.7N 139.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 139.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 20.0N 142.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 20.1N 144.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.2N 147.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 20.6N 148.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 22.5N 151.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 25.3N 153.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 28.1N 155.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
040400Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 140.4W.
HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 887 NM EAST OF
HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 041000Z, 041600Z, 042200Z AND 050400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17E (OLIVIA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

2018-09-03 22:31

WTPN33 PHNC 032200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN) WARNING NR 027
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 19.4N 137.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4N 137.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 19.8N 141.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 20.1N 143.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 20.2N 146.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 20.4N 147.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 21.9N 150.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 24.6N 152.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 27.8N 155.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
032200Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 138.7W.
HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 989 NM EAST OF
HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 040400Z, 041000Z, 041600Z AND 042200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17E (OLIVIA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-09-03 21:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 032038 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
200 PM PDT MON SEP 03 2018

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUES TO DEPICT A FAIRLY SYMMETRIC
HURRICANE WITH A RAGGED EYE, HOWEVER, A 1615 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE
OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE EYE WAS OPEN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS ARE SLOWLY
DECREASING, AND A CONSENSUS OF THE VARIOUS OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK CI-NUMBERS SUPPORT LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 90 KT.
NORMAN IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER MARGINALLY WARM SSTS AND INTO A
DRIER MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SINCE
THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY LOW OVER THE HURRICANE,
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED TO BE GRADUAL THROUGH MID-WEEK. AFTER
THAT TIME, A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE A MORE RAPID RATE OF FILLING. THE NEW FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE HFIP
CORRECTED CONSENSUS MODEL AND THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS AID.

NORMAN IS MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD OR 280/17 KT. THE HURRICANE IS
BEING STEERED BY A LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND IT
SHOULD KEEP NORMAN ON A WESTWARD HEADING WITH SOME DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE NEAR 150W SHOULD CAUSE NORMAN TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD,
THEN NORTHWESTWARD AFTER 72 HOURS. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE AS TO EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THE TURN
WILL TAKE PLACE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS AGAIN CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS MODELS AT THE LONGER RANGE, BUT THE OVERALL GUIDANCE

2018-09-03 21:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 032038
TCDEP1

Hurricane Norman Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018
200 PM PDT Mon Sep 03 2018

Visible satellite images continues to depict a fairly symmetric
hurricane with a ragged eye, however, a 1615 UTC SSMIS microwave
overpass indicated that the eye was open over the southeastern
portion of the circulation. Dvorak data T-numbers are slowly
decreasing, and a consensus of the various objective and subjective
Dvorak CI-numbers support lowering the initial intensity to 90 kt.
Norman is forecast to move over marginally warm SSTs and into a
drier mid-level environment during the next couple of days. Since
the shear is expected to remain fairly low over the hurricane,
weakening is anticipated to be gradual through mid-week. After
that time, a significant increase in southwesterly vertical wind
shear should cause a more rapid rate of filling. The new forecast
is similar to the previous advisory and is a blend of the HFIP
corrected consensus model and the IVCN intensity consensus aid.

Norman is moving quickly westward or 280/17 kt. The hurricane is
being steered by a large subtropical ridge to the north and it
should keep Norman on a westward heading with some decrease in
forward speed over the next couple of days. A weakness in the
ridge near 150W should cause Norman to turn west-northwestward,
then northwestward after 72 hours. There is still considerable
spread in the model guidance as to exactly when and where the turn
will take place. The NHC track forecast is again close to the
consensus models at the longer range, but the overall guidance
envelope changed little, so the updated NHC track forecast is
similar to the previous track forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 19.5N 138.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 19.8N 141.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 20.1N 143.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 20.2N 146.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 20.4N 147.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 21.9N 150.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 24.6N 152.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 27.8N 155.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-09-03 21:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 032037
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORMAN ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
200 PM PDT MON SEP 03 2018

...NORMAN MARCHING WESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 138.4W
ABOUT 1085 MI...1750 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1265 MI...2040 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORMAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 138.4 WEST. NORMAN IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH (31 KM/H). A WESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH (165 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, BUT NORMAN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH MID-WEEK.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
(165 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 MB (28.68 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

....
FORECASTER BROWN

2018-09-03 21:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 032037 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
2100 UTC MON SEP 03 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 138.4W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 180SE 210SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 138.4W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 137.6W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.8N 141.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.1N 143.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.2N 146.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 20.4N 147.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 21.9N 150.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

2018-09-03 21:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 032037
TCMEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
2100 UTC MON SEP 03 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 138.4W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 180SE 210SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 138.4W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 137.6W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.8N 141.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.1N 143.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.2N 146.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 20.4N 147.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 21.9N 150.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 24.6N 152.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 27.8N 155.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 138.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

2018-09-03 16:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 031556 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 26...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
800 AM PDT MON SEP 03 2018

CORRECTED TO REMOVE G-IV FLIGHT REFERENCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT NORMAN IS WEAKENING. THE EYE IS NO
LONGER APPARENT ON INFRARED IMAGERY, AND THE CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
REDUCED TO 95 KT, WHICH IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE DVORAK CI NUMBERS
FROM TAFB AND SAB. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF MARGINAL SSTS, LIGHT OR
MODERATE SHEAR, AND A DRY MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE NEW FORECAST
IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, EXCEPT LOWER IN THE SHORT TERM
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY.

NORMAN HAS TURNED WESTWARD AND IS STILL MOVING AT ABOUT 17 KT. A
FAST WESTWARD MOTION IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE A
LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN.
HOWEVER, A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE FROM 150W-155W SHOULD CAUSE NORMAN
TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD AFTER DAY 3. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AT LONG RANGE, WITH THE UKMET AND ITS ENSEMBLE
CLOSER TO HAWAII, WHILE ALMOST ALL OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE IS MUCH
FARTHER NORTHEAST. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE
GUIDANCE, SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED WESTWARD AT
LONG RANGE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED, HOWEVER, THAT THERE ISN'T MUCH
SUPPORT FOR THE UKMET SOLUTION IN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE, SO IT
SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 19.3N 136.6W 95 KT 110 MPH

2018-09-03 16:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 031556 CCA
TCDEP1

Hurricane Norman Discussion Number 26...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018
800 AM PDT Mon Sep 03 2018

Corrected to remove G-IV flight reference for this afternoon

Satellite images indicate that Norman is weakening. The eye is no
longer apparent on infrared imagery, and the cloud tops are warming
throughout the central dense overcast. The initial wind speed is
reduced to 95 kt, which is close to a blend of the Dvorak CI numbers
from TAFB and SAB. Continued weakening is likely over the next
several days due to a combination of marginal SSTs, light or
moderate shear, and a dry mid-level environment. The new forecast
is very similar to the previous one, except lower in the short term
to account for the current intensity.

Norman has turned westward and is still moving at about 17 kt. A
fast westward motion is anticipated over the next few days while a
large subtropical ridge holds firm over the central Pacific Ocean.
However, a weakness in the ridge from 150W-155W should cause Norman
to turn more northwestward after day 3. Model guidance is showing
considerable spread at long range, with the UKMET and its ensemble
closer to Hawaii, while almost all of the other guidance is much
farther northeast. There continues to be a westward shift in the
guidance, so the official forecast has been shifted westward at
long range. It should be noted, however, that there isn't much
support for the UKMET solution in the rest of the guidance, so it
seems to be an outlier at this time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 19.3N 136.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 19.7N 139.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 20.0N 142.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 20.2N 144.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 20.3N 146.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 21.3N 150.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 24.0N 152.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 27.5N 154.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-03 15:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 031446 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
800 AM PDT MON SEP 03 2018

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT NORMAN IS WEAKENING. THE EYE IS NO
LONGER APPARENT ON INFRARED IMAGERY, AND THE CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
REDUCED TO 95 KT, WHICH IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE DVORAK CI NUMBERS
FROM TAFB AND SAB. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF MARGINAL SSTS, LIGHT OR
MODERATE SHEAR, AND A DRY MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE NEW FORECAST
IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, EXCEPT LOWER IN THE SHORT TERM
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY.

NORMAN HAS TURNED WESTWARD AND IS STILL MOVING AT ABOUT 17 KT. A
FAST WESTWARD MOTION IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE A
LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN.
HOWEVER, A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE FROM 150W-155W SHOULD CAUSE NORMAN
TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD AFTER DAY 3. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AT LONG RANGE, WITH THE UKMET AND ITS ENSEMBLE
CLOSER TO HAWAII, WHILE ALMOST ALL OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE IS MUCH
FARTHER NORTHEAST. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE
GUIDANCE, SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED WESTWARD AT
LONG RANGE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED, HOWEVER, THAT THERE ISN'T MUCH
SUPPORT FOR THE UKMET SOLUTION IN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE, SO IT
SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. HOPEFULLY THE NOAA G-IV
AIRCRAFT DROPSONDE DATA THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP RESOLVE THESE MODEL
DIFFERENCES FOR THE 0000 UTC CYCLE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

2018-09-03 15:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 031446
TCDEP1

Hurricane Norman Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018
800 AM PDT Mon Sep 03 2018

Satellite images indicate that Norman is weakening. The eye is no
longer apparent on infrared imagery, and the cloud tops are warming
throughout the central dense overcast. The initial wind speed is
reduced to 95 kt, which is close to a blend of the Dvorak CI numbers
from TAFB and SAB. Continued weakening is likely over the next
several days due to a combination of marginal SSTs, light or
moderate shear, and a dry mid-level environment. The new forecast
is very similar to the previous one, except lower in the short term
to account for the current intensity.

Norman has turned westward and is still moving at about 17 kt. A
fast westward motion is anticipated over the next few days while a
large subtropical ridge holds firm over the central Pacific Ocean.
However, a weakness in the ridge from 150W-155W should cause Norman
to turn more northwestward after day 3. Model guidance is showing
considerable spread at long range, with the UKMET and its ensemble
closer to Hawaii, while almost all of the other guidance is much
farther northeast. There continues to be a westward shift in the
guidance, so the official forecast has been shifted westward at
long range. It should be noted, however, that there isn't much
support for the UKMET solution in the rest of the guidance, so it
seems to be an outlier at this time. Hopefully the NOAA G-IV
aircraft dropsonde data this afternoon will help resolve these model
differences for the 0000 UTC cycle.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 19.3N 136.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 19.7N 139.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 20.0N 142.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 20.2N 144.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 20.3N 146.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 21.3N 150.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 24.0N 152.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 27.5N 154.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-03 15:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 031445
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORMAN ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
800 AM PDT MON SEP 03 2018

...NORMAN WEAKENING WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 136.6W
ABOUT 1205 MI...1935 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1385 MI...2230 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORMAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 136.6 WEST. NORMAN IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH (31 KM/H). THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST ANTICIPATED ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH (175 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT 72 HOURS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
(185 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB (28.56 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.

....
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-09-03 15:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 031445 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
1500 UTC MON SEP 03 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 136.6W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 180SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 136.6W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 135.7W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.7N 139.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.0N 142.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.2N 144.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.3N 146.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.3N 150.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

2018-09-03 15:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 031445
TCMEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
1500 UTC MON SEP 03 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 136.6W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 180SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 136.6W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 135.7W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.7N 139.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.0N 142.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.2N 144.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.3N 146.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.3N 150.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 24.0N 152.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 27.5N 154.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 136.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-09-03 15:32

WTPN33 PHNC 031600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN) WARNING NR 026
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 19.1N 135.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 135.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 19.7N 139.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 20.0N 142.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 20.2N 144.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.3N 146.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 21.3N 150.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 24.0N 152.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 27.5N 154.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
031600Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 136.9W.
HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1098 NM EAST OF
HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 032200Z, 040400Z, 041000Z AND 041600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17E (OLIVIA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-09-03 10:32

WTPN33 PHNC 031000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN) WARNING NR 025
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 18.8N 133.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8N 133.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 19.5N 137.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 20.0N 140.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 20.2N 143.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 20.4N 145.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 21.2N 149.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 23.5N 151.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 27.0N 153.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
031000Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 134.9W.
HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1213 NM EAST OF
HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 031600Z, 032200Z, 040400Z AND 041000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17E (OLIVIA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-09-03 09:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 030846 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
200 AM PDT MON SEP 03 2018

ITS POSSIBLE THAT NORMAN HAS PEAKED, PERHAPS PERMANENTLY THIS TIME.
CLOUD TOPS HAVE NOTABLY WARMED AROUND THE EYE, WHICH ITSELF HAS
BECOME LESS DISTINCT IN IR IMAGERY OVERNIGHT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 110 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
FINAL-T AND CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB, AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT.
BASED ON TRENDS OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO, IT'S POSSIBLE NORMAN HAS
WEAKENED EVEN MORE THAN INDICATED. ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT NORMAN SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF MARGINAL SSTS, MODERATE SHEAR, AND A
DRIER SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT, THOUGH THIS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT
AS WELL SHORTLY BEFORE NORMAN QUICKLY RE-INTENSIFIED TO MAJOR
HURRICANE STRENGTH. SINCE ANOTHER SUDDEN PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION
DOESN'T APPEAR IMMINENT, THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS THROUGH DAY 5, AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE
MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285/17 KT. NORMAN SHOULD
CONTINUE MOVING VERY QUICKLY TOWARD THE CENTRAL PACIFIC OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT IS STEERED BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. BY LATER THIS WEEK, ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST
THAT THE HURRICANE WILL SLOW DOWN, AND THEN TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THERE IS STILL A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE, PARTICULARLY REGARDING THE
SPEED OF NORMAN AFTER IT BEGINS TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AROUND DAY 4
OR 5, SO CONFIDENCE IS IN THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST IS LOW.

2018-09-03 09:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 030846
TCDEP1

Hurricane Norman Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018
200 AM PDT Mon Sep 03 2018

Its possible that Norman has peaked, perhaps permanently this time.
Cloud tops have notably warmed around the eye, which itself has
become less distinct in IR imagery overnight. The initial intensity
has been lowered to 110 kt based on a blend of subjective Dvorak
final-T and CI numbers from TAFB and SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT.
Based on trends over the past hour or two, it's possible Norman has
weakened even more than indicated. All of the intensity guidance
suggests that Norman should steadily weaken over the next several
days due to a combination of marginal SSTs, moderate shear, and a
drier surrounding environment, though this was the case last night
as well shortly before Norman quickly re-intensified to major
hurricane strength. Since another sudden period of intensification
doesn't appear imminent, the new NHC intensity forecast is very
close to the consensus through day 5, and only minor changes were
made from the previous advisory.

The estimated initial motion is now 285/17 kt. Norman should
continue moving very quickly toward the central Pacific over the
next 24 hours as it is steered by a strong subtropical ridge to the
north. By later this week, all of the global models forecast
that the hurricane will slow down, and then turn toward the
northwest toward a weakness in the ridge. There is still a fair
amount of spread in the track guidance, particularly regarding the
speed of Norman after it begins to turn northwestward around day 4
or 5, so confidence is in this portion of the track forecast is low.
The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly south of the
previous advisory for the first 72 h, following the HCCA and TVCX
consensus aids, but is fairly similar after that. Based on the
current forecast, Norman is expected to cross into the central
Pacific later today.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 19.0N 134.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 19.5N 137.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 20.0N 140.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 20.2N 143.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 20.4N 145.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 21.2N 149.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 23.5N 151.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 27.0N 153.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-09-03 09:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 030845
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORMAN ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
200 AM PDT MON SEP 03 2018

...NORMAN BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AGAIN...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 134.6W
ABOUT 1335 MI...2150 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORMAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 134.6 WEST. NORMAN IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH (31 KM/H). THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID-WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH (205 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NORMAN IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
(185 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB (28.20 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

....
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-09-03 09:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 030845 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
0900 UTC MON SEP 03 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 134.6W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 134.6W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 133.7W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.5N 137.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.0N 140.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.2N 143.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.4N 145.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.2N 149.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

2018-09-03 09:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 030845
TCMEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
0900 UTC MON SEP 03 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 134.6W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 134.6W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 133.7W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.5N 137.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.0N 140.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.2N 143.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.4N 145.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.2N 149.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 23.5N 151.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 27.0N 153.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 134.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-09-03 04:32

WTPN33 PHNC 030400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 18.4N 131.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4N 131.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.2N 135.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 19.9N 138.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 20.4N 141.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 20.7N 144.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 21.5N 148.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 23.4N 150.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 26.2N 153.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
030400Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 133.0W.
HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1168 NM SOUTHWEST
OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 031000Z, 031600Z, 032200Z AND 040400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17E (OLIVIA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-09-03 03:31

WTPZ41 KNHC 030232 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 02 2018

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT NORMAN IS MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH
THIS EVENING. THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE REMAINS DISTINCT AND A RING
OF COLD CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDS THAT FEATURE. HOWEVER, THE CLOUD TOPS
HAVE BEEN WARMING A LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A BLEND OF
THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORTS HOLDING THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED AT 115 KT.

NORMAN IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER MARGINALLY WARM 27 DEG C SSTS AND
IT WILL BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. IN ADDITION, THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE HURRICANE
MOVING INTO AN INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR MASS AND SHOW A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN SHEAR IN 4 TO 5 DAYS. ALL OF THESE CONDITIONS SUGGEST
THAT NORMAN SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN, AND THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
TREND IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE CONSENSUS MODELS HCCA AND IVCN.

NORMAN CONTINUES TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST, WITH
THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE THE SAME AS BEFORE, 285/17. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE NORMAN
REMAINS STEERED BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS
NORTH-NORTHEAST. AFTER THAT TIME, A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND
THEN A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ARE PREDICTED AS NORMAN MOVES
NEAR THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND APPROACHES A SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS
CAUSED BY A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH. THE MODELS AGREE ON THIS OVERALL
SCENARIO, BUT THEY DIFFER ON THE DETAILS OF WHERE AND WHEN NORMAN
MAKES THE NORTHWESTWARD TURN. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES NEAR THE

2018-09-03 03:31

WTPZ41 KNHC 030232
TCDEP1

Hurricane Norman Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018
800 PM PDT Sun Sep 02 2018

Satellite images indicate that Norman is maintaining its strength
this evening. The eye of the hurricane remains distinct and a ring
of cold cloud tops surrounds that feature. However, the cloud tops
have been warming a little during the past few hours. A blend of
the latest satellite intensity estimates supports holding the
initial wind speed at 115 kt.

Norman is currently located over marginally warm 27 deg C SSTs and
it will be moving over slightly cooler waters during the next
several days. In addition, the global models show the hurricane
moving into an increasingly drier air mass and show a significant
increase in shear in 4 to 5 days. All of these conditions suggest
that Norman should steadily weaken, and the NHC forecast follows the
trend in the model guidance. This forecast is in best agreement
with the consensus models HCCA and IVCN.

Norman continues to move fairly quickly to the west-northwest, with
the latest initial motion estimate the same as before, 285/17. This
motion is expected to continue for the next day or so while Norman
remains steered by a strong subtropical ridge to its
north-northeast. After that time, a decrease in forward speed and
then a gradual turn to the northwest are predicted as Norman moves
near the edge of the ridge and approaches a significant weakness
caused by a large-scale trough. The models agree on this overall
scenario, but they differ on the details of where and when Norman
makes the northwestward turn. The NHC track forecast lies near the
middle of the guidance envelope and is near the typically most
skillful aids, the consensus models. Based on this forecast, Norman
is expected to cross into the central Pacific basin in 24 to 36
hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 18.6N 132.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 19.2N 135.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 19.9N 138.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 20.4N 141.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 20.7N 144.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 21.5N 148.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 23.4N 150.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 26.2N 153.2W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-09-03 03:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 030231
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORMAN ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 02 2018

...HURRICANE NORMAN MAINTAINING CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH FOR NOW...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 132.7W
ABOUT 1460 MI...2355 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORMAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 132.7 WEST. NORMAN IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH (31 KM/H). THIS MOTION WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 130 MPH (215 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NORMAN IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
(185 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB (28.06 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

....
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-09-03 03:31

WTPZ21 KNHC 030231 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
0300 UTC MON SEP 03 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 132.7W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 132.7W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 131.8W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.2N 135.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.9N 138.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.4N 141.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.7N 144.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.5N 148.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.

2018-09-03 03:31

WTPZ21 KNHC 030231
TCMEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
0300 UTC MON SEP 03 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 132.7W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 132.7W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 131.8W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.2N 135.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.9N 138.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.4N 141.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.7N 144.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.5N 148.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 23.4N 150.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 26.2N 153.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 132.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-09-02 21:31

WTPZ41 KNHC 022034
TCDEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 02 2018

NORMAN HAS MAINTAINED A VERY DISTINCT EYE WITH A RING OF DEEP
CONVECTION ALL DAY. T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE NOT
CHANGED AND STILL ARE T6.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. ON THIS BASIS, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING KEPT AT 115 KT IN THIS ADVISORY. THE
HURRICANE, HOWEVER, WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LOWER SSTS, AND INTENSITY
GUIDANCE IS RESPONDING TO THE COOLER WATER BY GRADUALLY WEAKENING
THE HURRICANE. THE NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS IVCN, AND FORECASTS A GRADUAL WEAKENING BEYOND 12 HOURS.

NORMAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 KT. THERE IS A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE, AND
THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO STEER THE CYCLONE BETWEEN THE
WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS OR SO.
AFTER THAT TIME, NORMAN WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
RIDGE, AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST SHOULD THEN BEGIN. MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE SHIFTED NORTHWARD AT VERY LONG RANGES, SO THE NHC
FORECAST WAS SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION ACCORDINGLY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 18.1N 130.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 18.7N 133.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 19.5N 136.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 20.0N 140.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 20.5N 142.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 21.0N 147.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 23.0N 150.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 26.0N 152.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

..
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-09-02 21:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 022033
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORMAN ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 02 2018

...SEVERE HURRICANE NORMAN HEADING TOWARD THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 130.9W
ABOUT 1395 MI...2250 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE DISTINCT EYE OF HURRICANE NORMAN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 130.9 WEST. NORMAN
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH (31 KM/H). THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 130 MPH (215 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. NORMAN IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE LIKELY TODAY AND MONDAY, BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND SHOULD
BEGIN THEREAFTER.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
(185 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB (28.00 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

....
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-09-02 21:31

WTPZ21 KNHC 022033 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
2100 UTC SUN SEP 02 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 130.9W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 130.9W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 130.0W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.7N 133.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.5N 136.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.0N 140.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.5N 142.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.0N 147.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

2018-09-02 21:31

WTPZ21 KNHC 022033
TCMEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
2100 UTC SUN SEP 02 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 130.9W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 130.9W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 130.0W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.7N 133.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.5N 136.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.0N 140.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.5N 142.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.0N 147.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 23.0N 150.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 26.0N 152.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 130.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-09-02 21:31

WTPN33 PHNC 022200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 17.9N 130.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 130.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 18.7N 133.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 19.5N 136.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 20.0N 140.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 20.5N 142.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 21.0N 147.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 23.0N 150.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 26.0N 152.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
022200Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 131.2W.
HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1128 NM SOUTHWEST
OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 31
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030400Z, 031000Z, 031600Z AND 032200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17E (OLIVIA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-09-02 16:32

WTPN33 PHNC 021600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 17.4N 128.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4N 128.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.2N 131.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.1N 134.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 20.0N 138.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 20.5N 141.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 21.0N 146.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 22.0N 150.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 24.0N 153.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
021600Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 129.4W.
HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1100 NM SOUTHWEST
OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 31
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022200Z, 030400Z, 031000Z AND 031600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17E (OLIVIA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-09-02 15:31

WTPZ41 KNHC 021438 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
800 AM PDT SUN SEP 02 2018

NORMAN HAS MADE A REMARKABLE AND SURPRISING COME BACK TODAY.
SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL A DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF VERY
DEEP CONVECTION, AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB REACHED
T6.0 AROUND 1200 UTC. THESE NUMBERS HAVE LEVELED OFF SINCE THEN. ON
THIS BASIS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 115 KT,
MAKING NORMAN AGAIN A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. THE HURRICANE, HOWEVER, WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LOWER SSTS,
AND ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE INTENSITY MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
FORECASTING STRENGTHENING, THE NHC FORECAST PREFERS THE CONSENSUS
IVCN, AND FORECASTS A GRADUAL WEAKENING BEYOND 12 TO 24 HOURS.

NORMAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 KT. THERE IS A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE NORTH OF NORMAN, AND THIS
FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO STEER THE HURRICANE BETWEEN THE
WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.
BY THEN, THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER AND A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT, AND UNANIMOUSLY, ALL MODELS
FORECAST THE GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BEYOND 4 DAYS. THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE AND IS NOT MUCH
DIFFERENT FROM THE EARLIER ONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 17.6N 129.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 18.2N 131.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 19.1N 134.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 20.0N 138.2W 90 KT 105 MPH

2018-09-02 15:31

WTPZ41 KNHC 021438
TCDEP1

Hurricane Norman Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018
800 AM PDT Sun Sep 02 2018

Norman has made a remarkable and surprising come back today.
Satellite images reveal a distinct eye surrounded by a ring of very
deep convection, and Dvorak T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB reached
T6.0 around 1200 UTC. These numbers have leveled off since then. On
this basis, the initial intensity has been increased to 115 kt,
making Norman again a Category Four Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Scale. The hurricane, however, will begin to approach lower SSTs,
and although some of the intensity models are more aggressive in
forecasting strengthening, the NHC forecast prefers the consensus
IVCN, and forecasts a gradual weakening beyond 12 to 24 hours.

Norman is moving toward the west-northwest at 16 kt. There is a
strong subtropical ridge anchored to the north of Norman, and this
flow pattern will continue to steer the hurricane between the
west and west-northwest at the same speed for the next 2 to 3 days.
By then, the ridge is forecast to be weaker and a turn toward the
northwest is expected by the end of the forecast period. Track
guidance is in very good agreement, and unanimously, all models
forecast the gradual turn to the northwest beyond 4 days. The NHC
track forecast is in the middle of the envelope and is not much
different from the earlier one.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 17.6N 129.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 18.2N 131.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 19.1N 134.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 20.0N 138.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 20.5N 141.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 21.0N 146.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 22.0N 150.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 24.0N 153.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-09-02 15:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 021437
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORMAN ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
800 AM PDT SUN SEP 02 2018

...NORMAN HAS MADE A REMARKABLE COME BACK AND BECOMES A CATEGORY
FOUR HURRICANE AGAIN...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 129.1W
ABOUT 1295 MI...2085 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE DISTINCT EYE OF HURRICANE NORMAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 129.1 WEST. NORMAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH (30 KM/H), AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THEREAFTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 130 MPH (215 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NORMAN IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE LIKELY TODAY AND MONDAY, BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND SHOULD
THEN BEGIN.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
(185 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB (28.00 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.

....
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-09-02 15:31

WTPZ21 KNHC 021437 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
1500 UTC SUN SEP 02 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 129.1W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 129.1W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 128.3W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.2N 131.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.1N 134.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.0N 138.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.5N 141.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.0N 146.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.

2018-09-02 15:31

WTPZ21 KNHC 021437
TCMEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
1500 UTC SUN SEP 02 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 129.1W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 129.1W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 128.3W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.2N 131.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.1N 134.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.0N 138.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.5N 141.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.0N 146.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 22.0N 150.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 24.0N 153.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 129.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-09-02 10:31

WTPN33 PHNC 021000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN) WARNING NR 021
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 16.9N 126.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 126.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.7N 129.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 18.6N 133.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 19.4N 136.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 20.1N 139.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 20.8N 144.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 21.5N 149.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 23.0N 152.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
021000Z POSITION NEAR 17.2N 127.7W.
HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1081 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 021600Z, 022200Z, 030400Z AND 031000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17E (OLIVIA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-09-02 09:31

WTPZ41 KNHC 020853 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
200 AM PDT SUN SEP 02 2018

NORMAN'S STRUCTURE HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING. A
RAGGED, BUT FAIRLY CLEAR, EYE HAS BEEN APPARENT IN SHORTWAVE AND
LONGWAVE IR IMAGERY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, AND CLOUD TOPS
AROUND THE EYE HAVE GENERALLY COOLED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN HELD AT 90 KT, IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK FIXES FROM
TAFB AND SAB. HOWEVER, THE MOST RECENT OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM THE UW-CIMSS ADT ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER, SUGGESTING THIS
ESTIMATE COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.

GIVEN THAT NORMAN APPEARS TO BE ON THE UPSWING, THE FORECAST NOW
ALLOWS FOR SOME SLIGHT RE-STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 12 H WHILE THE
HURRICANE REMAINS OVER WARM WATERS AND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT. BEYOND THAT TIME, HOWEVER, THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST REASONING OR THE GUIDANCE. THE
CYCLONE IS STILL EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF COOL SSTS, FAIRLY DRY AIR, AND BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, INCREASING SHEAR. AT 24 H AND
BEYOND, THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS,
AND HAS NOT BEEN SUBSTANTIALLY CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

NORMAN IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
290/11. A STRONG DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH SHOULD
KEEP NORMAN MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A NOTABLE INCREASE IN SPEED FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ALL OF THE MODELS AGREE ON THIS GENERAL

2018-09-02 09:31

WTPZ41 KNHC 020853
TCDEP1

Hurricane Norman Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018
200 AM PDT Sun Sep 02 2018

Norman's structure has continued to slowly improve this morning. A
ragged, but fairly clear, eye has been apparent in shortwave and
longwave IR imagery for the past several hours, and cloud tops
around the eye have generally cooled. The initial intensity has
been held at 90 kt, in agreement with the latest Dvorak fixes from
TAFB and SAB. However, the most recent objective intensity
estimates from the UW-CIMSS ADT are slightly higher, suggesting this
estimate could be conservative.

Given that Norman appears to be on the upswing, the forecast now
allows for some slight re-strengthening over the next 12 h while the
hurricane remains over warm waters and the shear is expected to be
light. Beyond that time, however, there has been no significant
change to the intensity forecast reasoning or the guidance. The
cyclone is still expected to gradually weaken as it encounters a
marginal environment consisting of cool SSTs, fairly dry air, and by
the end of the forecast period, increasing shear. At 24 h and
beyond, the NHC forecast is very close to the intensity consensus,
and has not been substantially changed from the previous advisory.

Norman is beginning to accelerate and the initial motion estimate is
290/11. A strong deep-layer subtropical ridge to the north should
keep Norman moving generally westward to west-northwestward through
most of the forecast period, with a notable increase in speed for
the next day or two. All of the models agree on this general
scenario, however there is still some north-south spread in the
guidance, with the GFS and ECMWF on opposite sides of the guidance
envelope. Like the previous forecast, the official track forecast
generally splits these models and lies near the middle of the
guidance envelope and the consensus aids, FSSE and HCCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 17.1N 127.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 17.7N 129.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 18.6N 133.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 19.4N 136.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 20.1N 139.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 20.8N 144.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 21.5N 149.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 23.0N 152.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-09-02 09:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 020852
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORMAN ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
200 AM PDT SUN SEP 02 2018

...NORMAN MAINTAINING STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 127.5W
ABOUT 1210 MI...1945 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE NORMAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 127.5 WEST. NORMAN IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H). A WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO SLOW
DOWN BY MIDWEEK AFTER CROSSING INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN ON
TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH (165 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR SO, HOWEVER, SHORT TERM FLUCTUATIONS, UP OR DOWN, COULD
OCCUR. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY TUESDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
(185 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB (28.65 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

....
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-09-02 09:31

WTPZ21 KNHC 020851 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
0900 UTC SUN SEP 02 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 127.5W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 127.5W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 126.7W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.7N 129.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.6N 133.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.4N 136.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.1N 139.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.8N 144.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

2018-09-02 09:31

WTPZ21 KNHC 020851
TCMEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
0900 UTC SUN SEP 02 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 127.5W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 127.5W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 126.7W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.7N 129.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.6N 133.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.4N 136.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.1N 139.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.8N 144.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 21.5N 149.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 23.0N 152.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 127.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-09-02 04:31

WTPN33 PHNC 020400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 16.5N 125.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 125.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.1N 128.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.0N 131.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.9N 134.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 19.8N 137.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 21.0N 143.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 21.5N 147.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 23.0N 150.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
020400Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 126.4W.
HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1074 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 021000Z, 021600Z, 022200Z AND 030400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17E (SEVENTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-09-02 03:31

WTPZ41 KNHC 020236 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 01 2018

NORMAN LOOKED A LITTLE RAGGED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 0000 UTC.
SINCE THAT TIME, THOUGH, THE HURRICANE LOOKS BETTER ORGANIZED, WITH
THE EYEWALL CONVECTION BETTER DEFINED IN VISIBLE AND INFRARED
IMAGERY. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE CHANGED LITTLE SINCE
THE PAST ADVISORY, SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS A POSSIBLY
GENEROUS 90 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 280/11. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO BE
STEERED BY A STRONG DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH,
RESULTING IN A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME, A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS NORMAN APPROACHES A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AT
DAYS 4-5, WITH THE HWRF ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
SHOWING A NORTHWESTWARD TURN AND THE GFS ON THE SOUTH SIDE SHOWING A
MORE WESTWARD MOTION. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

NORMAN IS EXPECTED TO BE IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR 48-72 H.
HOWEVER, DURING THIS TIME THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO A DRIER AIR MASS. BASED ON THE
GUIDANCE, THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH FOR 24 H FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING FROM 24-72 H.
AFTER 72 H, INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE A FASTER
WEAKENING. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT NORMAN
COULD GET STRONGER THAN FORECAST WHILE OVER WARM WATER DURING THE

2018-09-02 03:31

WTPZ41 KNHC 020236
TCDEP1

Hurricane Norman Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018
800 PM PDT Sat Sep 01 2018

Norman looked a little ragged in satellite imagery near 0000 UTC.
Since that time, though, the hurricane looks better organized, with
the eyewall convection better defined in visible and infrared
imagery. Satellite intensity estimates have changed little since
the past advisory, so the initial intensity remains a possibly
generous 90 kt.

The initial motion is now 280/11. The hurricane is expected to be
steered by a strong deep-layer subtropical ridge to the north,
resulting in a generally west-northwestward motion with an increase
in forward speed during the next 2-3 days. After that time, a
decrease in forward speed is expected as Norman approaches a
weakness in the ridge. There is some spread in the guidance at
days 4-5, with the HWRF on the north side of the guidance envelope
showing a northwestward turn and the GFS on the south side showing a
more westward motion. The new forecast track is similar to the
previous track and lies just to the south of the center of the
guidance envelope.

Norman is expected to be in a light shear environment for 48-72 h.
However, during this time the cyclone will be moving over cooler
sea surface temperatures and into a drier air mass. Based on the
guidance, the intensity forecast calls for little change in
strength for 24 h followed by a gradual weakening from 24-72 h.
After 72 h, increasing southerly shear should cause a faster
weakening. It should be noted that there is a chance that Norman
could get stronger than forecast while over warm water during the
next 12-18 h as indicated by the HWRF and HMON models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 16.7N 126.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 17.1N 128.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 18.0N 131.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 18.9N 134.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 19.8N 137.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 21.0N 143.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 21.5N 147.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 23.0N 150.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-09-02 03:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 020235
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORMAN ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 01 2018

...NORMAN CONTINUING WESTWARD AS A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 126.0W
ABOUT 1130 MI...1815 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORMAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 126.0 WEST. NORMAN IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H). A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, NORMAN WILL APPROACH THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH (165 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
(165 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB (28.65 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

....
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-09-02 03:31

WTPZ21 KNHC 020234 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
0300 UTC SUN SEP 02 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 126.0W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 126.0W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 125.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 17.1N 128.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.0N 131.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.9N 134.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.8N 137.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 21.0N 143.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

2018-09-02 03:31

WTPZ21 KNHC 020234
TCMEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
0300 UTC SUN SEP 02 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 126.0W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 126.0W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 125.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 17.1N 128.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.0N 131.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.9N 134.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.8N 137.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 21.0N 143.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 21.5N 147.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 23.0N 150.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 126.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-09-01 22:32

WTPN33 PHNC 012200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 16.2N 124.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 124.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 16.6N 127.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.4N 130.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 18.2N 133.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 19.1N 136.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 20.4N 142.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 21.4N 146.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 22.2N 149.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
012200Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 125.3W.
HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1068 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 26
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020400Z, 021000Z, 021600Z AND 022200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17E (SEVENTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-09-01 21:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 012054 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 01 2018

SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, A WELL-DEFINED CLOSED EYE HAS REMAINED
APPARENT IN MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA, AND A CLOUD-FILLED EYE HAS
APPEARED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATED HAVEN'T CHANGED SINCE THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY, SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 90 KT, WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY A 1501Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 88 KT AND A DVORAK CI VALUE
OF T5.0/90 KT.

NORMAN'S INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 275/12 KT BASED ON MICROWAVE
AND VISIBLE SATELLITE EYE POSITION ESTIMATES. THERE ARE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST AND REASONING.
THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED BY A STRONG DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH, RESULTING IN A WESTWARD MOTION FOR
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A
FASTER FORWARD SPEED. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY PACKED
ABOUT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 96 HOURS, WITH MUCH LESS
DIVERGENCE AFTER THAT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THEREFORE,
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK, AND LIES CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE HCCA,
FSSE, AND TVCE CONSENSUS TRACK MODELS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE 15-20 KT OF VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING NORMAN TO STEADILY DECREASE FOR
THE NEXT 60-72 HOURS, POSSIBLY BECOMING NEAR ZERO IF THE ECMWF
UPPER-LEVEL WIND FORECASTS VERIFY. SINCE THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN OVER 27 DEG C AND WARMER SSTS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS, ONLY

2018-09-01 21:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 012054
TCDEP1

Hurricane Norman Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018
200 PM PDT Sat Sep 01 2018

Since the previous advisory, a well-defined closed eye has remained
apparent in microwave satellite data, and a cloud-filled eye has
appeared in visible satellite imagery during the past couple of
hours. Satellite intensity estimated haven't changed since the
previous advisory, so the initial intensity remains 90 kt, which is
supported by a 1501Z SATCON estimate of 88 kt and a Dvorak CI value
of T5.0/90 kt.

Norman's initial motion estimate is now 275/12 kt based on microwave
and visible satellite eye position estimates. There are
no significant changes to the previous track forecast and reasoning.
The hurricane is expected to be steered by a strong deep-layer
subtropical ridge to the north, resulting in a westward motion for
the next 12-24 hours, followed by a west-northwestward motion at a
faster forward speed. The latest model guidance is tightly packed
about the previous forecast track through 96 hours, with much less
divergence after that compared to previous model runs. Therefore,
the new forecast track is essentially just an extension of the
previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the HCCA,
FSSE, and TVCE consensus track models.

The GFS and ECMWF models are forecasting the 15-20 kt of vertical
wind shear that has been affecting Norman to steadily decrease for
the next 60-72 hours, possibly becoming near zero if the ECMWF
upper-level wind forecasts verify. Since the hurricane is expected
to remain over 27 deg C and warmer SSTs for the next 48 hours, only
slow weakening is forecast and that is due mainly to occasional
intrusions of drier and more stable air coming in from the
northwest, where a large field of cold-air stratocumulus clouds is
currently lurking close by. The HWRF and HMON models continue to
forecast Norman to re-strengthen into a major hurricane during the
next 24 hours, but this scenario is being discounted at this time
due to Norman's proximity to the aforementioned stratocumulus cloud
field. By 72 hours, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler SSTs
should combine to induce more significant weakening. The NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the HCCA and IVCN consensus model
forecasts.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 16.3N 125.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 16.6N 127.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 17.4N 130.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 18.2N 133.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 19.1N 136.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 20.4N 142.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 21.4N 146.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 22.2N 149.6W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-01 21:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 012051
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORMAN ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 01 2018

...NORMAN HOLDING STEADY AS A CATEGORY-2 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 125.1W
ABOUT 1090 MI...1750 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORMAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 125.1 WEST. NORMAN IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H). A GENERAL WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH AN SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, NORMAN
WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH (165 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
(165 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB (28.65 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

....
FORECASTER STEWART

2018-09-01 21:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 012050 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
2100 UTC SAT SEP 01 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 125.1W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 125.1W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 124.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.6N 127.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.4N 130.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.2N 133.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.1N 136.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.4N 142.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

2018-09-01 21:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 012050
TCMEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
2100 UTC SAT SEP 01 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 125.1W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 125.1W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 124.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.6N 127.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.4N 130.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.2N 133.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.1N 136.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.4N 142.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 21.4N 146.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 22.2N 149.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 125.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

2018-09-01 16:31

WTPN33 PHNC 011600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 16.2N 123.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 123.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 16.3N 125.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 16.9N 128.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 17.8N 131.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.7N 134.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 20.3N 140.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 21.3N 145.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 22.0N 148.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
011600Z POSITION NEAR 16.2N 123.9W.
HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1044 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 26
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012200Z, 020400Z, 021000Z AND 021600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17E (SEVENTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-09-01 15:31

WTPZ41 KNHC 011454 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 01 2018

ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT NORMAN HAS
CONTINUED TO WEAKEN, THE WEAKENING TREND APPEARS TO HAVE ABATED.
THIS IS BASED ON RECENT INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWING A BETTER DEVELOPED
CDO FEATURE ACCOMPANIED BY IMPROVED OUTFLOW, AND ALSO A WELL-DEFINED
CLOSED EYE NOW DEPICTED IN A 1148Z AMSR AND 1158Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 90 KT,
WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, WITH
A LITTLE MORE WEIGHT PLACED ON THE TAFB ESTIMATE OF T5.0/90 KT.

NORMAN'S INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/10 KT. THE AFOREMENTIONED
EYE NOTED IN THE MICROWAVE PASSES GREATLY HELPED WITH DETERMINING
THE CYCLONE'S LOCATION AND PAST MOTION. OTHER THAN SOME SLIGHT
FORWARD SPEED ADJUSTMENTS MADE IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS DUE TO THE
FASTER INITIAL MOTION, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE REQUIRED TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST. NORMAN IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE HURRICANE MOVES
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF NORMAN
THROUGH 72 H, AND THEN DIVERGE NOTICEABLY AFTER THAT TIME WITH THE
GFS TAKING NORMAN MORE WESTWARD IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, WHEREAS THE ECMWF, HWRF, AND HMON MODELS KEEP
NORMAN WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK LIES CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE THROUGH 72 H, AND THEN IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AIDS HCCA

2018-09-01 15:31

WTPZ41 KNHC 011454
TCDEP1

Hurricane Norman Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018
800 AM PDT Sat Sep 01 2018

Although satellite intensity estimates indicate that Norman has
continued to weaken, the weakening trend appears to have abated.
This is based on recent infrared imagery showing a better developed
CDO feature accompanied by improved outflow, and also a well-defined
closed eye now depicted in a 1148Z AMSR and 1158Z SSMIS microwave
satellite images. The initial intensity has been lowered to 90 kt,
which is a blend of the various satellite intensity estimates, with
a little more weight placed on the TAFB estimate of T5.0/90 kt.

Norman's initial motion estimate is 270/10 kt. The aforementioned
eye noted in the microwave passes greatly helped with determining
the cyclone's location and past motion. Other than some slight
forward speed adjustments made in the first 24 hours due to the
faster initial motion, no significant changes were required to the
previous track forecast. Norman is forecast to move westward to
west-northwestward for the next several days as the hurricane moves
along the southern periphery of strong deep-layer ridge to the
north. The models are in excellent agreement on the track of Norman
through 72 h, and then diverge noticeably after that time with the
GFS taking Norman more westward in the general direction of the
Hawaiian Islands, whereas the ECMWF, HWRF, and HMON models keep
Norman well to the northeast of the islands. The official forecast
track lies close to the middle of the tightly packed guidance
envelope through 72 h, and then is close to the consensus aids HCCA
and FSSE after that.

The shear that has been affecting Norman appears to have weakened
some this morning, and that decreasing trend is expected to
continue throughout the forecast period, becoming near zero in
48-72 h according to the ECMWF model. The GFS model shows a
similar decreasing shear trend, but just not as much as the ECMWF
model. The HWRF and HMON models also have the shear decreasing and
do a complete reversal by re-strengthening Norman into a major
hurricane again during the next 24 h, followed by slow weakening
thereafter. For now, the official intensity forecast shows little
change in strength for the next 24 h, followed by slow weakening
during the remainder of the forecast period as the cyclone
encounters drier air and cooler sea-surface temperatures near 26C.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 16.2N 123.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 16.3N 125.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 16.9N 128.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 17.8N 131.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 18.7N 134.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 20.3N 140.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 21.3N 145.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 22.0N 148.6W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-01 15:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 011454
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORMAN ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 01 2018

...NORMAN WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE BUT STILL A CATEGORY-2 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 123.7W
ABOUT 1010 MI...1625 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORMAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 123.7 WEST. NORMAN IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). A GENERAL WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH AN SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, NORMAN
WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH (165 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
(165 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB (28.65 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.

....
FORECASTER STEWART

2018-09-01 15:31

WTPZ21 KNHC 011453 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
1500 UTC SAT SEP 01 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 123.7W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 123.7W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 123.2W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 16.3N 125.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.9N 128.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.8N 131.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.7N 134.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.3N 140.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

2018-09-01 15:31

WTPZ21 KNHC 011453
TCMEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
1500 UTC SAT SEP 01 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 123.7W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 123.7W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 123.2W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 16.3N 125.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.9N 128.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.8N 131.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.7N 134.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.3N 140.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 21.3N 145.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 22.0N 148.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 123.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

2018-09-01 10:32

WTPN33 PHNC 011000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 16.3N 122.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 122.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 16.3N 124.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 16.6N 126.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.3N 129.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 18.2N 132.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 19.9N 139.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 21.0N 143.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 21.5N 147.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
011000Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 123.1W.
HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1027 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 011600Z, 012200Z, 020400Z AND 021000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17E (SEVENTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-09-01 09:31

WTPZ41 KNHC 010834 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 01 2018

NORMAN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OF ABOUT 20 KT, AS ANALYZED IN SHIPS
DIAGNOSTICS. THE HURRICANE HAS TAKEN ON A TRADITIONAL IR SHEAR
PATTERN STRUCTURE, WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT OF BRIGHTNESS TEMPERATURES
OBSERVED UP-SHEAR OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER POSITION. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE CONTINUED TO DROP AND NO LONGER SUPPORT
KEEPING NORMAN AT MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 95 KT, JUST ABOVE THE LATEST SATCON ESTIMATE,
BUT THIS STILL COULD BE GENEROUS.

THE SHEAR AFFECTING NORMAN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT 24 H. SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS HINT THAT THE SHEAR COULD
RELAX BETWEEN 24-48 H, WHICH WOULD LIKELY BRING AN END TO NORMAN'S
WEAKENING TREND. WHILE IT IS NOT EXPLICITLY REFLECTED IN THE
INTENSITY FORECAST, A DECREASE IN SHEAR COULD EVEN ALLOW THE
HURRICANE TO BRIEFLY RESTRENGTHEN. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE MID- TO LOWER-LEVEL INNER-CORE AND EYE OF NORMAN
ARE STILL INTACT. IF THIS STRUCTURE CAN SURVIVE THE NEXT 24 H OF
SHEAR, REINTENSIFICATION WOULD BE MORE LIKELY. BY 72 H, THE
HURRICANE WILL REACH DRIER, MORE STABLE AIR AND MODERATE SSTS, AND
THESE FACTORS WILL LIKELY CAUSE IT TO STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE FINALLY TURNED WESTWARD, AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS 265/7 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE
TO THE TRACK FORECAST. NORMAN IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, STEERED PRIMARILY

2018-09-01 09:31

WTPZ41 KNHC 010834
TCDEP1

Hurricane Norman Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018
200 AM PDT Sat Sep 01 2018

Norman continues to weaken due to the effects of moderate
northeasterly shear of about 20 kt, as analyzed in SHIPS
diagnostics. The hurricane has taken on a traditional IR shear
pattern structure, with a tight gradient of brightness temperatures
observed up-shear of the estimated center position. Satellite
intensity estimates have continued to drop and no longer support
keeping Norman at major hurricane strength. The initial intensity
has been lowered to 95 kt, just above the latest SATCON estimate,
but this still could be generous.

The shear affecting Norman is expected to continue for at least the
next 24 h. Some of the dynamical models hint that the shear could
relax between 24-48 h, which would likely bring an end to Norman's
weakening trend. While it is not explicitly reflected in the
intensity forecast, a decrease in shear could even allow the
hurricane to briefly restrengthen. Recent microwave imagery
indicates that the mid- to lower-level inner-core and eye of Norman
are still intact. If this structure can survive the next 24 h of
shear, reintensification would be more likely. By 72 h, the
hurricane will reach drier, more stable air and moderate SSTs, and
these factors will likely cause it to steadily weaken through the
remainder of the forecast period.

The cyclone appears to have finally turned westward, and the
initial motion is 265/7 kt. No significant changes have been made
to the track forecast. Norman is still expected to move westward
to west-northwestward for the next several days, steered primarily
by an extensive deep-layer ridge to the north. The models remain
in good agreement on the track of Norman throughout the forecast
period, and the official track forecast is near the middle of the
guidance envelope and very close to the various consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 16.3N 123.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 16.3N 124.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 16.6N 126.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 17.3N 129.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 18.2N 132.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 19.9N 139.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 21.0N 143.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 21.5N 147.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-09-01 09:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 010833
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORMAN ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 01 2018

...NORMAN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 123.0W
ABOUT 965 MI...1555 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORMAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 123.0 WEST. NORMAN IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H). A GENERAL WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, NORMAN
WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH (175 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY.
LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED BEGINNING SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER, AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES (165 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB (28.53 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

....
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-09-01 09:31

WTPZ21 KNHC 010833 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
0900 UTC SAT SEP 01 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 123.0W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 123.0W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 122.5W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 16.3N 124.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.6N 126.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.3N 129.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.2N 132.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.9N 139.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

2018-09-01 09:31

WTPZ21 KNHC 010833
TCMEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
0900 UTC SAT SEP 01 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 123.0W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 123.0W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 122.5W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 16.3N 124.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.6N 126.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.3N 129.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.2N 132.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.9N 139.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 21.0N 143.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 21.5N 147.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 123.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-09-01 05:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 010251 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORMAN ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 31 2018

...NORMAN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...
...........................................STILL A CATEGORY 3
HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 122.2W
ABOUT 920 MI...1480 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORMAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 122.2 WEST. NORMAN IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH (195 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NORMAN IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS BUT NORMAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
(165 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB (28.29 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

2018-09-01 04:32

WTPN33 PHNC 010400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 16.4N 121.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 121.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 16.2N 123.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 16.4N 125.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.0N 128.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 17.7N 131.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 19.1N 138.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 20.3N 142.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 21.2N 146.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
010400Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 122.4W.
HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1011 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 011000Z, 011600Z, 012200Z AND 020400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17E (SEVENTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-09-01 03:31

WTPZ41 KNHC 010251 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 31 2018

SEVERAL RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES INDICATE THAT NORMAN CONTINUES TO
FEEL THE EFFECTS OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR, WITH THE CYCLONE VERTICALLY
TITLED AND ITS UPPER-LEVEL CORE DISRUPTED IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. FURTHERMORE, THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAS DISAPPEARED
ON IR AND VISIBLE IMAGERY. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB HAVE ALSO DECREASED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, AND
THEREFORE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 105 KT, AND
THIS VALUE COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR
OVER THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO, WHICH SHOULD CAUSE
THE GRADUAL WEAKENING TO CONTINUE. THEREAFTER, THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO LESSEN SOMEWHAT, BUT THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
ENTRAINING DRY AIR FROM ITS SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT. THERE MAY BE
SOME TIME BETWEEN 24-48 HOURS WHEN THE LESSENING SHEAR AND WARM SSTS
COULD OVERCOME THE DRIER AIR IN THE ENVIRONMENT TO ALLOW FOR EITHER
A STEADYING OF INTENSITY OR PERHAPS EVEN SOME SLIGHT
RE-STRENGTHENING. BEYOND 48 HOURS, HOWEVER, THE ENVIRONMENT IS
FORECAST TO BECOME EVEN DRIER, WHICH SHOULD INDUCE ANOTHER WEAKENING
TREND. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN CHANGED LITTLE THROUGH 24
H, BUT NOW SHOWS A LEVELING OFF OF THE INTENSITY FROM 24-48 H.
STEADY WEAKENING IS STILL ANTICIPATED BEYOND THAT TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WEST-SOUTHWEST, OR 250/7 KT.
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING THAT EXTENDS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE

2018-09-01 03:31

WTPZ41 KNHC 010251
TCDEP1

Hurricane Norman Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018
800 PM PDT Fri Aug 31 2018

Several recent microwave passes indicate that Norman continues to
feel the effects of northeasterly shear, with the cyclone vertically
titled and its upper-level core disrupted in the northern
semicircle. Furthermore, the eye of the hurricane has disappeared
on IR and visible imagery. Satellite intensity estimates from
TAFB and SAB have also decreased since the previous advisory, and
therefore, the initial intensity has been decreased to 105 kt, and
this value could be a little generous.

Model guidance continues to indicate moderate northeasterly shear
over the cyclone for the next day or so, which should cause
the gradual weakening to continue. Thereafter, the shear is
forecast to lessen somewhat, but the cyclone is expected to begin
entraining dry air from its surrounding environment. There may be
some time between 24-48 hours when the lessening shear and warm SSTs
could overcome the drier air in the environment to allow for either
a steadying of intensity or perhaps even some slight
re-strengthening. Beyond 48 hours, however, the environment is
forecast to become even drier, which should induce another weakening
trend. The NHC intensity forecast has been changed little through 24
h, but now shows a leveling off of the intensity from 24-48 h.
Steady weakening is still anticipated beyond that time.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-southwest, or 250/7 kt.
Mid- to upper-level ridging that extends west-southwestward from
the Baja California peninsula to just northwest of the cyclone
should steer Norman west-southwestward for the next several hours.
By Saturday morning, the ridge should begin to become oriented more
east-to-west then southeast-to-northwest by Sunday. This will cause
the system to be steered on a more westward then west-northwestward
track with an increase in forward speed over the weekend and into
early next week. The NHC track forecast has been shifted slightly
left and is a little faster than the previous advisory. This
forecast is generally between the previous NHC forecast and the
consensus guidance track. Based on this forecast, Norman is
expected to move into the central Pacific basin by Tuesday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 16.3N 122.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 16.2N 123.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 16.4N 125.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 17.0N 128.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 17.7N 131.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 19.1N 138.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 20.3N 142.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 21.2N 146.3W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto

2018-09-01 03:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 010251
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORMAN ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 31 2018

...NORMAN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...
............STILL A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 122.2W
ABOUT 920 MI...1480 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORMAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 122.2 WEST. NORMAN IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH (195 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NORMAN IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS BUT NORMAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
(165 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB (28.29 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

...........
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/LATTO

2018-09-01 03:31

WTPZ21 KNHC 010251 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
0300 UTC SAT SEP 01 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 122.2W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 122.2W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 121.8W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 16.2N 123.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 16.4N 125.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 17.0N 128.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.7N 131.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.1N 138.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

2018-09-01 03:31

WTPZ21 KNHC 010251
TCMEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
0300 UTC SAT SEP 01 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 122.2W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 122.2W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 121.8W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 16.2N 123.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 16.4N 125.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 17.0N 128.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.7N 131.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.1N 138.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 20.3N 142.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 21.2N 146.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 122.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/LATTO

2018-08-31 23:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 312032 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORMAN ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 31 2018

...NORMAN WEAKENS SOME...
................................................STILL A STRONG
CATEGORY
3
HURRICANE...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 121.5W
ABOUT 875 MI...1405 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORMAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 121.5 WEST. NORMAN IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH (205 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NORMAN IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST,
BUT NORMAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
(165 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB (28.17 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

2018-08-31 21:31

WTPZ41 KNHC 312034 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 31 2018

SATELLITE DERIVED MID AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS AND THE UW-CIMSS
SHEAR ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT THE PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO 20-25 KT, AND HAS CONTINUED TO IMPEDE OUTER
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
NORMAN'S INNER CORE. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS ALSO BECOME SOMEWHAT
ASYMMETRIC (NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST). A SERIES OF RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGES, HOWEVER, SHOW THAT THE EYEWALL IS NOW CLOSED, ALTHOUGH THE
EYE TEMPERATURE HAS WARMED A BIT DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB ALSO
SUPPORT THESE OBSERVATIONS, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO
110 KT.

ALTHOUGH THERE MAY STILL BE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY, GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH DAY 5, PRIMARILY DUE TO THE SHEAR
PREDICTED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF DECAY-SHIPS INTENSITY MODELS.
INTRUSION OF STABLE AIR MASS, BEYOND DAY 3, NORTHEAST OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL ALSO PROMOTE THIS WEAKENING TREND. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY, AND IS STILL BASED ON THE HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS
APPROACH AND IVCN INTENSITY MODELS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WEST-SOUTHWEST, OR 255/7 KT.
AN ANCHORED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT STRETCHES
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD STEER
NORMAN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.
AFTERWARD, THE SOUTHWESTERN-MOST SEGMENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN
MIRIAM AND NORMAN WEAKENS AS MIRIAM CONTINUES ON A NORTHWARD TRACK.

2018-08-31 21:31

WTPZ41 KNHC 312034
TCDEP1

Hurricane Norman Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018
200 PM PDT Fri Aug 31 2018

Satellite derived mid and upper tropospheric winds and the UW-CIMSS
shear analysis indicate that the persistent northeasterly vertical
shear has increased to 20-25 kt, and has continued to impede outer
deep convective banding development in the northern portion of
Norman's inner core. The cloud pattern has also become somewhat
asymmetric (northeast to southwest). A series of recent microwave
images, however, show that the eyewall is now closed, although the
eye temperature has warmed a bit during the past 6 hours. The
Dvorak satellite intensity classifications from TAFB and SAB also
support these observations, and the initial intensity is reduced to
110 kt.

Although there may still be some fluctuations in intensity, gradual
weakening is forecast through day 5, primarily due to the shear
predicted by the GFS and ECMWF Decay-SHIPS intensity models.
Intrusion of stable air mass, beyond day 3, northeast of the
Hawaiian Islands will also promote this weakening trend. The
official intensity forecast has changed little from the previous
advisory, and is still based on the HFIP Corrected Consensus
Approach and IVCN intensity models.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-southwest, or 255/7 kt.
An anchored mid- to upper-level ridge that stretches
west-southwestward from the Baja California peninsula should steer
Norman west-southwestward during the next 12 hours or so.
Afterward, the southwestern-most segment of the ridge axis between
Miriam and Norman weakens as Miriam continues on a northward track.
This change in the synoptic steering pattern should influence Norman
to turn back toward the west or west-northwest by early next week.
Only slight along-track speed adjustments were made to this
advisory, which follows a blend of the HCCA and TVCN consensus
guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 16.5N 121.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 16.2N 122.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 16.2N 124.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 16.6N 127.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 17.3N 129.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 18.9N 136.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 20.0N 141.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 20.9N 144.7W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-08-31 21:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 312032
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORMAN ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 31 2018

...NORMAN WEAKENS SOME...
................STILL A STRONG CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 121.5W
ABOUT 875 MI...1405 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORMAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 121.5 WEST. NORMAN IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH (205 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NORMAN IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST,
BUT NORMAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
(165 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB (28.17 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

...............
FORECASTER ROBERTS

2018-08-31 21:31

WTPZ21 KNHC 312032 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
2100 UTC FRI AUG 31 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 121.5W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 121.5W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 121.1W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 16.2N 122.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 16.2N 124.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.6N 127.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.3N 129.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.9N 136.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

2018-08-31 21:31

WTPZ21 KNHC 312032
TCMEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
2100 UTC FRI AUG 31 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 121.5W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 121.5W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 121.1W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 16.2N 122.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 16.2N 124.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.6N 127.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.3N 129.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.9N 136.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 20.0N 141.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 20.9N 144.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 121.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

2018-08-31 21:31

WTPN33 PHNC 312200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 16.6N 121.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 121.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 16.2N 122.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 16.2N 124.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 16.6N 127.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.3N 129.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.9N 136.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 20.0N 141.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 20.9N 144.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
312200Z POSITION NEAR 16.5N 121.6W.
HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 990 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 010400Z, 011000Z, 011600Z AND 012200Z.
//
NNNN

2018-08-31 16:32

WTPN33 PHNC 311600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 16.8N 120.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8N 120.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 16.4N 122.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 16.2N 123.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 16.3N 125.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 16.8N 128.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.3N 134.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 19.5N 140.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.5N 144.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
311600Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 120.9W.
HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 971 NM SOUTH OF SAN
DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 29 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 312200Z, 010400Z, 011000Z AND 011600Z.//
NNNN

2018-08-31 15:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 311438 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 31 2018

NORMAN APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE.
ALTHOUGH A LACK OF EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY HASN'T HELPED TO
SUPPORT THIS SPECULATION, ENHANCED INFRARED BD-CURVE IMAGES,
HOWEVER, REVEALED A COLLAPSE OF THE INNER CORE IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT SEVERAL HOURS AGO. CURRENTLY, THAT PORTION OF THE
EYEWALL HAS BEGUN TO FILL IN WITH A SOLID RING COMPLETELY
SURROUNDING THE EYE, ALBEIT, RATHER THIN. CONSEQUENTLY,
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS, AS WELL AS AN EARLIER SATCON
ANALYSIS, SUPPORT A SLIGHT DECREASE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 115
KT.

FURTHER SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD,
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE SHORT-TERM DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED INNER CORE STRUCTURE EVOLUTION. THERE ALSO APPEARS
TO BE SOME MODEST NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IMPINGING THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE CYCLONE, WHICH COULD HAMPER STRENGTHENING. THE DECAY
SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR WILL PERSIST DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THROUGH THE REMAINING PART OF THE
FORECAST, DECREASING SSTS AND THE INTRUSION OF A MORE STABLE/DRIER
ENVIRONMENT FROM THE NORTH SHOULD LEAD TO FURTHER WEAKENING. THE
NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND FOLLOWS THE
NOAA-HCCA AND IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODELS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WEST-SOUTHWEST, OR 245/7 KT.
THE CYCLONE'S MOTION IS CURRENTLY INFLUENCED BY A
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED MID-TO-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE
RESIDING BETWEEN HURRICANE MIRIAM TO THE WEST, AND NORMAN TO THE

2018-08-31 15:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 311438
TCDEP1

Hurricane Norman Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018
800 AM PDT Fri Aug 31 2018

Norman appears to be undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle.
Although a lack of earlier microwave imagery hasn't helped to
support this speculation, enhanced infrared BD-Curve images,
however, revealed a collapse of the inner core in the northeast
quadrant several hours ago. Currently, that portion of the
eyewall has begun to fill in with a solid ring completely
surrounding the eye, albeit, rather thin. Consequently,
subjective and objective T-numbers, as well as an earlier SATCON
analysis, support a slight decrease of the initial intensity to 115
kt.

Further slow weakening is forecast through the entire period,
although there could be fluctuations in the short-term due to the
aforementioned inner core structure evolution. There also appears
to be some modest northeasterly shear impinging the northeast
portion of the cyclone, which could hamper strengthening. The Decay
SHIPS intensity model indicates that the shear will persist during
the next couple of days. Through the remaining part of the
forecast, decreasing SSTs and the intrusion of a more stable/drier
environment from the north should lead to further weakening. The
NHC forecast is similar to the previous one, and follows the
NOAA-HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus models.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-southwest, or 245/7 kt.
The cyclone's motion is currently influenced by a
northeast-southwest oriented mid-to-upper tropospheric ridge
residing between Hurricane Miriam to the west, and Norman to the
east. This current motion is expected to continue for
the next 36 hours, or so. Afterward, the ridge between the two
tropical cyclones is expected to weaken as Miriam continues on a
generally northward track. This change in the synoptic steering
pattern should cause Norman to turn to the west and then
west-northwest with an increase in forward speed. The official
forecast has changed little over the past 6 hours and is based on a
blend of the HCCA and TVCN consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1500Z 16.7N 120.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 16.4N 122.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 16.2N 123.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 16.3N 125.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 16.8N 128.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 18.3N 134.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 19.5N 140.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 20.5N 144.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-08-31 15:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 311437
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORMAN ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 31 2018

...NORMAN STILL A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 120.8W
ABOUT 825 MI...1330 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE NORMAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 120.8 WEST. NORMAN IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 130 MPH (215 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NORMAN IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST,
BUT NORMAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES
(150 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB (28.06 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.

....
FORECASTER ROBERTS

2018-08-31 15:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 311436 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
1500 UTC FRI AUG 31 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 120.8W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..160NE 160SE 135SW 160NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 120.8W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 120.4W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 16.4N 122.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 16.2N 123.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 16.3N 125.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.8N 128.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.3N 134.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

2018-08-31 15:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 311436
TCMEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
1500 UTC FRI AUG 31 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 120.8W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..160NE 160SE 135SW 160NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 120.8W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 120.4W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 16.4N 122.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 16.2N 123.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 16.3N 125.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.8N 128.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.3N 134.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 19.5N 140.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 20.5N 144.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 120.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

2018-08-31 09:31

WTPZ41 KNHC 310836 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 31 2018

NORMAN APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. CLOUD
TOPS AROUND THE EYE HAVE WARMED, AND THE EYE ITSELF HAS BECOME LESS
DISTINCT. SEVERAL RECENT MICROWAVE OVERPASSES SHOW LITTLE INDICATION
THAT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS UNDERWAY, BUT IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT OUR ABILITY TO OBSERVE SUCH A CYCLE IS LIMITED BY THE
RESOLUTION OF THE AVAILABLE INSTRUMENTS. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE DECREASED AND SUPPORTED AT MOST AN
INTENSITY OF 125 KT AT 0600 UTC. GIVEN THE CONTINUED WARMING OF
CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE INNER CORE SINCE THAT TIME, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 120 KT.

DUE TO THE LOWER INITIAL INTENSITY, THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS ALSO
BEEN LOWERED SLIGHTLY, PARTICULARLY FOR THE FIRST 24 H. GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, THOUGH LARGER
SHORT-TERM FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLES ARE POSSIBLE, IF NOT LIKELY, WHILE NORMAN REMAINS A
HURRICANE. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, A FASTER WEAKENING
RATE IS ANTICIPATED AS NORMAN IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER COOLER SSTS
AND REACH A DRIER ENVIRONMENT. THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR THE CENTER
OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND NEAR THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

THE HURRICANE HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 8 KT.
ALMOST NO CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST, WHICH REMAINS
CLOSE TO THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS AIDS. THE HURRICANE SHOULD TURN
WESTWARD, AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, AS IT IS STEERED PRIMARILY BY
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. WITH THE

2018-08-31 09:31

WTPZ41 KNHC 310836
TCDEP1

Hurricane Norman Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018
200 AM PDT Fri Aug 31 2018

Norman appears to have weakened over the past several hours. Cloud
tops around the eye have warmed, and the eye itself has become less
distinct. Several recent microwave overpasses show little indication
that an eyewall replacement cycle is underway, but it is possible
that our ability to observe such a cycle is limited by the
resolution of the available instruments. Satellite intensity
estimates from all agencies have decreased and supported at most an
intensity of 125 kt at 0600 UTC. Given the continued warming of
cloud tops near the inner core since that time, the initial
intensity has been lowered to 120 kt.

Due to the lower initial intensity, the intensity forecast has also
been lowered slightly, particularly for the first 24 h. Gradual
weakening is expected through the forecast period, though larger
short-term fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement
cycles are possible, if not likely, while Norman remains a
hurricane. By the end of the forecast period, a faster weakening
rate is anticipated as Norman is forecast to move over cooler SSTs
and reach a drier environment. The NHC forecast is near the center
of the intensity guidance envelope and near the intensity consensus.

The hurricane has continued to move west-southwestward at 8 kt.
Almost no change has been made to the track forecast, which remains
close to the various consensus aids. The hurricane should turn
westward, and then west-northwestward, as it is steered primarily by
a deep-layer ridge to the north for the next 5 days. With the
exception of the UKMET global model, which is an outlier to the
south, the global and regional dynamical models are in good
agreement on the future path of Norman, and confidence in the track
forecast is fairly high.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0900Z 16.9N 120.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 16.6N 121.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 16.3N 123.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 16.3N 125.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 16.7N 127.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 18.4N 133.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 19.5N 139.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 20.5N 143.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-08-31 09:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 310834
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORMAN ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 31 2018

...NORMAN WEAKENS A LITTLE BUT REMAINS A POWERFUL HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 120.2W
ABOUT 785 MI...1265 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE NORMAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 120.2 WEST. NORMAN IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 140 MPH (220 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NORMAN IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST,
HOWEVER, NORMAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER, AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES
(150 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 946 MB (27.94 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

....
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-08-31 09:31

WTPZ21 KNHC 310834 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
0900 UTC FRI AUG 31 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 120.2W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..160NE 160SE 135SW 160NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 120.2W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 119.9W

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 16.6N 121.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 16.3N 123.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 16.3N 125.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.7N 127.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.4N 133.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

2018-08-31 09:31

WTPZ21 KNHC 310834
TCMEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
0900 UTC FRI AUG 31 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 120.2W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..160NE 160SE 135SW 160NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 120.2W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 119.9W

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 16.6N 121.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 16.3N 123.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 16.3N 125.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.7N 127.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.4N 133.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 19.5N 139.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 20.5N 143.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 120.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-08-31 09:31

WTPN33 PHNC 311000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 17.1N 119.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 119.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 16.6N 121.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 16.3N 123.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 16.3N 125.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 16.7N 127.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 18.4N 133.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 19.5N 139.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 20.5N 143.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
311000Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 120.4W.
HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 948 NM SOUTH OF SAN
DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 32 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 311600Z, 312200Z, 010400Z AND 011000Z.//
NNNN

2018-08-31 04:32

WTPN33 PHNC 310400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 17.4N 119.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4N 119.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 17.0N 120.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 16.6N 122.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 16.2N 124.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 16.3N 126.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 17.8N 131.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 19.5N 137.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 20.5N 142.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
310400Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 119.7W.
HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 925 NM SOUTH OF SAN
DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 33 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 311000Z, 311600Z, 312200Z AND 010400Z.//
NNNN

2018-08-31 03:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 310233 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
800 PM PDT THU AUG 30 2018

AFTER THE EXPLOSIVE INTENSIFICATION OBSERVED LAST NIGHT AND
EARLIER TODAY, NORMAN'S INTENSITY HAS LEVELED OFF. THE EYE OF THE
MAJOR HURRICANE REMAINS QUITE CIRCULAR AND DISTINCT WITH A
SOLID EYEWALL SURROUNDING THE CENTER. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
EYEWALL, HOWEVER, HAS ERODED A LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
BASED ON THE STEADY STATE APPEARANCE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD
AT 130 KT, WHICH LIES AT THE UPPER END OF THE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES.

THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SURROUNDING NORMAN ARE EXPECTED TO
ONLY GRADUALLY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE WITH SSTS AND MID-LEVEL
HUMIDITY VALUES SLOWLY DECREASING ALONG NORMAN'S TRACK DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES
IN MAJOR HURRICANES LIKE NORMAN, WHICH TYPICALLY CAUSE FLUCTUATIONS
IN STRENGTH AND ARE CHALLENGING TO FORECAST. THE INTENSITY MODELS
ALL SHOW A SLOW WEAKENING TREND, AND THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT
THEME. THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE PREVIOUS ONE, TRENDING
TOWARD THE LATEST CONSENSUS MODELS.

NORMAN IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 8 KT STEERED BY A
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME, A CHANGE IN THE ORIENTATION
OF THE RIDGE SHOULD CAUSE NORMAN TO TURN TO THE WEST AND THEN
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK MODELS
REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT, AND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES

2018-08-31 03:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 310233
TCDEP1

Hurricane Norman Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018
800 PM PDT Thu Aug 30 2018

After the explosive intensification observed last night and
earlier today, Norman's intensity has leveled off. The eye of the
major hurricane remains quite circular and distinct with a
solid eyewall surrounding the center. The eastern portion of the
eyewall, however, has eroded a little during the past few hours.
Based on the steady state appearance, the initial intensity is held
at 130 kt, which lies at the upper end of the satellite intensity
estimates.

The environmental conditions surrounding Norman are expected to
only gradually become less favorable with SSTs and mid-level
humidity values slowly decreasing along Norman's track during the
next few days. There is a possibility of eyewall replacement cycles
in major hurricanes like Norman, which typically cause fluctuations
in strength and are challenging to forecast. The intensity models
all show a slow weakening trend, and the NHC forecast follows that
theme. This forecast is slightly below the previous one, trending
toward the latest consensus models.

Norman is moving west-southwestward at 8 kt steered by a
northeast-southwest oriented deep-layer ridge to the north of the
tropical cyclone. This general motion is expected to continue for
the next day or so. After that time, a change in the orientation
of the ridge should cause Norman to turn to the west and then
west-northwest with an increase in forward speed. The track models
remain in relatively good agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies
near the middle of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0300Z 17.3N 119.6W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 17.0N 120.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 16.6N 122.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 16.2N 124.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 16.3N 126.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 17.8N 131.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 19.5N 137.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 20.5N 142.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-08-31 03:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 310233
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORMAN ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
800 PM PDT THU AUG 30 2018

...NORMAN MAINTAINING CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 119.6W
ABOUT 740 MI...1190 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORMAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 119.6 WEST. NORMAN IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 150 MPH (240 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NORMAN IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER,
NORMAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A VERY POWERFUL HURRICANE DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES
(130 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 937 MB (27.67 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

....
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-08-31 03:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 310232 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
0300 UTC FRI AUG 31 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 119.6W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 937 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 119.6W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 119.2W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 17.0N 120.7W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 16.6N 122.3W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 16.2N 124.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 16.3N 126.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.8N 131.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

2018-08-31 03:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 310232
TCMEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
0300 UTC FRI AUG 31 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 119.6W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 937 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 119.6W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 119.2W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 17.0N 120.7W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 16.6N 122.3W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 16.2N 124.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 16.3N 126.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.8N 131.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 19.5N 137.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 20.5N 142.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 119.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-08-30 21:31

WTPZ41 KNHC 302037 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
200 PM PDT THU AUG 30 2018

NORMAN IS A VERY IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE IN VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE HURRICANE'S CDO IS VERY SYMMETRIC AND HAS A
WELL-DEFINED 20-NMI-WIDE EYE. THE SURROUNDING RING OF COLD CLOUD
TOPS HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY, BUT THE VARIOUS SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE STILL CATCHING UP TO THE IMPROVED SATELLITE
PRESENTATION AND RANGE FROM 127 KT TO 135 KT. BASED ON A BLEND OF
THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 130 KT, AND IT APPEARS
THAT NORMAN'S RAPID STRENGTHENING PHASE IS EASING. THERE IS STILL A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT
12 HOUR OR SO, HOWEVER, EYEWALL REPLACEMENT PROBABILITIES FROM
UW/CIMSS INDICATE A VERY HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
BEGINNING WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS WHICH WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. SLIGHTLY LOWER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND A SUBTLE INCREASE IN NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WIND SPEED OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING BUT IT DOES NOT
WEAKEN NORMAN AS QUICKLY AS THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE, AND IT IS IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS MODEL.

RECENT SATELLITE FIXES INDICATED THAT NORMAN IS MOVING SLIGHTLY
SOUTH OF DUE WEST. A STRONG MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD STEER
NORMAN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT
TIME, THE RIDGE CHANGES ORIENTATION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE

2018-08-30 21:31

WTPZ41 KNHC 302037
TCDEP1

Hurricane Norman Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018
200 PM PDT Thu Aug 30 2018

Norman is a very impressive hurricane in visible and infrared
satellite imagery. The hurricane's CDO is very symmetric and has a
well-defined 20-nmi-wide eye. The surrounding ring of cold cloud
tops have warmed slightly, but the various satellite intensity
estimates are still catching up to the improved satellite
presentation and range from 127 kt to 135 kt. Based on a blend of
these data, the initial intensity is set at 130 kt, and it appears
that Norman's rapid strengthening phase is easing. There is still a
potential for some additional increase in intensity within the next
12 hour or so, however, eyewall replacement probabilities from
UW/CIMSS indicate a very high likelihood of an eyewall replacement
beginning within the next 12-24 hours which will probably lead to
some fluctuations in intensity. Slightly lower sea surface
temperatures and a subtle increase in northeasterly shear are
expected to cause a gradual decrease in wind speed over the weekend.
The NHC intensity forecast shows gradual weakening but it does not
weaken Norman as quickly as the statistical guidance, and it is in
best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model.

Recent satellite fixes indicated that Norman is moving slightly
south of due west. A strong mid- to upper-level ridge that extends
west-southwestward from the Baja California peninsula should steer
Norman west-southwestward during the next 36 hours. After that
time, the ridge changes orientation which is expected to cause
Norman to turn back toward the west or west-northwest by early next
week. The track guidance is once again tightly clustered but the
overall model enveloped has shifted slightly southward. As a
result, the NHC forecast has been nudged in that direction to be
closer to the various consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 17.5N 118.8W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 31/0600Z 17.2N 120.0W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 31/1800Z 16.8N 121.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 16.3N 123.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 16.2N 125.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 17.1N 129.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 18.9N 135.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 20.2N 140.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-08-30 21:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 302036 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORMAN ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
200 PM PDT THU AUG 30 2018

...INTENSITY OF POWERFUL HURRICANE NORMAN LEVELS OFF...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 118.8W
ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE DISTINCT EYE OF HURRICANE NORMAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 118.8 WEST. NORMAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H). A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
MOTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. A
TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST AND AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH (240 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NORMAN IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN BY FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY, HOWEVER, NORMAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A VERY
POWERFUL HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES
(130 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 937 MB (27.67 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

2018-08-30 21:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 302036
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Norman Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018
200 PM PDT Thu Aug 30 2018

...INTENSITY OF POWERFUL HURRICANE NORMAN LEVELS OFF...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 118.8W
ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Norman was
located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 118.8 West. Norman is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A west-southwestward
motion is forecast to begin tonight and continue through Friday. A
turn back toward the west and and west-northwest is expected over
the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Norman is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is possible tonight and
early Friday. Gradual weakening is anticipated to begin by Friday
night or Saturday, however, Norman is expected to remain a very
powerful hurricane during the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-08-30 21:31

WTPZ21 KNHC 302036 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
2100 UTC THU AUG 30 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 118.8W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 937 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 118.8W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 118.4W

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 17.2N 120.0W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 16.8N 121.5W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 16.3N 123.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 16.2N 125.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.1N 129.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

2018-08-30 21:31

WTPZ21 KNHC 302036
TCMEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
2100 UTC THU AUG 30 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 118.8W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 937 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 118.8W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 118.4W

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 17.2N 120.0W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 16.8N 121.5W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 16.3N 123.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 16.2N 125.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.1N 129.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 18.9N 135.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 20.2N 140.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 118.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

2018-08-30 16:32

WTNT82 EGRR 301602

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 30.08.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 90L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.6N 16.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL902018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.08.2018 0 14.6N 16.4W 1010 21
0000UTC 31.08.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE MIRIAM ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 141.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.08.2018 0 15.3N 141.4W 976 69
0000UTC 31.08.2018 12 16.4N 141.8W 975 67
1200UTC 31.08.2018 24 18.2N 141.2W 969 68
0000UTC 01.09.2018 36 20.4N 140.6W 980 63
1200UTC 01.09.2018 48 22.1N 141.3W 996 45
0000UTC 02.09.2018 60 24.0N 142.4W 1002 36
1200UTC 02.09.2018 72 26.2N 144.4W 1006 34
0000UTC 03.09.2018 84 28.2N 145.6W 1010 28
1200UTC 03.09.2018 96 30.0N 147.9W 1013 25
0000UTC 04.09.2018 108 32.2N 149.4W 1014 25
1200UTC 04.09.2018 120 33.2N 150.8W 1014 26
0000UTC 05.09.2018 132 33.3N 150.4W 1014 26
1200UTC 05.09.2018 144 33.6N 149.3W 1013 23

HURRICANE NORMAN ANALYSED POSITION : 17.8N 117.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.08.2018 0 17.8N 117.7W 947 87
0000UTC 31.08.2018 12 17.8N 119.4W 957 76
1200UTC 31.08.2018 24 17.6N 120.8W 963 71
0000UTC 01.09.2018 36 17.5N 123.0W 965 68
1200UTC 01.09.2018 48 17.1N 125.9W 968 70
0000UTC 02.09.2018 60 16.4N 128.7W 970 70
1200UTC 02.09.2018 72 15.7N 131.3W 971 62
0000UTC 03.09.2018 84 15.7N 133.6W 972 58
1200UTC 03.09.2018 96 16.1N 135.7W 975 60
0000UTC 04.09.2018 108 17.0N 137.9W 974 63
1200UTC 04.09.2018 120 17.5N 140.2W 970 62
0000UTC 05.09.2018 132 17.9N 142.5W 975 60
1200UTC 05.09.2018 144 18.1N 144.6W 978 55

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 30.1N 175.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 31.08.2018 12 30.6N 176.8W 1004 44
1200UTC 31.08.2018 24 32.0N 177.9W 1003 43
0000UTC 01.09.2018 36 33.3N 178.1W 1002 37
1200UTC 01.09.2018 48 35.6N 178.4W 1001 36
0000UTC 02.09.2018 60 38.1N 178.8W 999 35
1200UTC 02.09.2018 72 39.7N 180.0W 1001 29
0000UTC 03.09.2018 84 40.9N 178.4E 1005 24
1200UTC 03.09.2018 96 42.4N 177.9E 1008 21
0000UTC 04.09.2018 108 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 13.6N 21.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 31.08.2018 24 14.1N 22.2W 1006 28
0000UTC 01.09.2018 36 14.7N 25.6W 1004 30
1200UTC 01.09.2018 48 15.0N 27.9W 1001 30
0000UTC 02.09.2018 60 16.4N 30.0W 1001 32
1200UTC 02.09.2018 72 17.5N 32.6W 1001 37
0000UTC 03.09.2018 84 18.6N 35.6W 1000 39
1200UTC 03.09.2018 96 19.4N 38.2W 1001 40
0000UTC 04.09.2018 108 20.3N 40.5W 1000 42
1200UTC 04.09.2018 120 21.4N 42.2W 995 48
0000UTC 05.09.2018 132 23.3N 43.4W 992 55
1200UTC 05.09.2018 144 25.3N 44.5W 995 49

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 15.8N 121.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.09.2018 132 15.8N 121.2W 1002 24
1200UTC 05.09.2018 144 16.2N 121.4W 1001 27


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 301602

2018-08-30 16:32

WTNT80 EGRR 301602

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 30.08.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 90L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.6N 16.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL902018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 30.08.2018 14.6N 16.4W WEAK
00UTC 31.08.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE MIRIAM ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 141.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 30.08.2018 15.3N 141.4W STRONG
00UTC 31.08.2018 16.4N 141.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.08.2018 18.2N 141.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.09.2018 20.4N 140.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.09.2018 22.1N 141.3W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 02.09.2018 24.0N 142.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.09.2018 26.2N 144.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.09.2018 28.2N 145.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2018 30.0N 147.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2018 32.2N 149.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.09.2018 33.2N 150.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.09.2018 33.3N 150.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2018 33.6N 149.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

HURRICANE NORMAN ANALYSED POSITION : 17.8N 117.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 30.08.2018 17.8N 117.7W INTENSE
00UTC 31.08.2018 17.8N 119.4W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 31.08.2018 17.6N 120.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.09.2018 17.5N 123.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.09.2018 17.1N 125.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.09.2018 16.4N 128.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.09.2018 15.7N 131.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.09.2018 15.7N 133.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2018 16.1N 135.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2018 17.0N 137.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.09.2018 17.5N 140.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.09.2018 17.9N 142.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.09.2018 18.1N 144.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 30.1N 175.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 31.08.2018 30.6N 176.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 31.08.2018 32.0N 177.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2018 33.3N 178.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.09.2018 35.6N 178.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.09.2018 38.1N 178.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.09.2018 39.7N 180.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.09.2018 40.9N 178.4E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2018 42.4N 177.9E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 13.6N 21.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 31.08.2018 14.1N 22.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2018 14.7N 25.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.09.2018 15.0N 27.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.09.2018 16.4N 30.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.09.2018 17.5N 32.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.09.2018 18.6N 35.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2018 19.4N 38.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2018 20.3N 40.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.09.2018 21.4N 42.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.09.2018 23.3N 43.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2018 25.3N 44.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 15.8N 121.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 05.09.2018 15.8N 121.2W WEAK
12UTC 05.09.2018 16.2N 121.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 301602

2018-08-30 15:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 301447 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
800 AM PDT THU AUG 30 2018

NORMAN HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED DURING THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS,
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WELL-DEFINED 20-NMI-WIDE EYE AND A THICK
RING OF COLD CLOUD TOPS OF -70 TO -85C. DVORAK CONSTRAINTS HAVE
LIMITED THE AMOUNT OF INCREASE IN THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE FINAL
T-NUMBERS, BUT THE MOST RECENT RAW DATA T-NUMBERS ARE BETWEEN T6.5
AND T7.2, WHICH YIELDS AN INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 130 KT.
NORMAN'S INTENSITY HAS INCREASED AN ESTIMATED 70 KT FROM 1200 UTC
YESTERDAY MORNING TO 1200 UTC THIS MORNING- THE FASTEST IN THE
BASIN SINCE PATRICIA IN 2015. NORMAN HAS BECOME THE 5TH CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC IN 2018 AND IS ALSO THE STRONGEST
HURRICANE IN THE BASIN SO FAR THIS SEASON.

THE HURRICANE REMAINS IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE OVER VERY WARM WATERS OF 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS FOR ANOTHER
24 HOURS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING AND NORMAN IS FORECAST TO BECOME A CATEGORY 5
HURRICANE LATER TODAY. EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES ARE LIKELY AFTER
THAT TIME, WHICH ARE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT, AND SHOULD CAUSE SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LATER IN
THE PERIOD, GRADUALLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING.
HOWEVER, NORMAN IS PREDICTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGHOUT THE
5-DAY FORECAST PERIOD.

NORMAN IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 270/7 KT. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD

2018-08-30 15:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 301447
TCDEP1

Hurricane Norman Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018
800 AM PDT Thu Aug 30 2018

Norman has rapidly strengthened during the past 12 to 24 hours,
with the development of a well-defined 20-nmi-wide eye and a thick
ring of cold cloud tops of -70 to -85C. Dvorak constraints have
limited the amount of increase in the subjective and objective final
T-numbers, but the most recent raw data T-numbers are between T6.5
and T7.2, which yields an initial intensity estimate of 130 kt.
Norman's intensity has increased an estimated 70 kt from 1200 UTC
yesterday morning to 1200 UTC this morning- the fastest in the
basin since Patricia in 2015. Norman has become the 5th category 4
hurricane in the eastern Pacific in 2018 and is also the strongest
hurricane in the basin so far this season.

The hurricane remains in a low-shear environment and will continue
to move over very warm waters of 29-30 degrees Celsius for another
24 hours. These conditions are expected to allow for additional
strengthening and Norman is forecast to become a category 5
hurricane later today. Eyewall replacement cycles are likely after
that time, which are difficult to predict, and should cause some
fluctuations in intensity during the next couple of days. Later in
the period, gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures and a
slight increase in shear are forecast to cause gradual weakening.
However, Norman is predicted to remain a hurricane throughout the
5-day forecast period.

Norman is moving westward or 270/7 kt. A strong subtropical ridge
that extends from the Baja California peninsula west-southwestward
into the eastern Pacific is expected to turn Norman
west-southwestward later today or tonight, with this motion
continuing over the next couple of days. The global models shift
the orientation of the ridge in a few days which should cause
Norman to turn west-northwestward by early next week. The
dynamical model guidance is tightly clustered, and the NHC track
forecast is close to the multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 17.8N 118.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 17.7N 119.1W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 17.2N 120.7W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 16.6N 122.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 16.1N 124.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 16.7N 128.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 18.5N 133.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 20.2N 138.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-08-30 15:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 301447 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORMAN ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
800 AM PDT THU AUG 30 2018

...POWERFUL HURRICANE NORMAN STILL STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 118.0W
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE NORMAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 118.0 WEST. NORMAN IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TODAY. A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST ON
FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST
OVER THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH (240 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NORMAN IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY, HOWEVER, NORMAN
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A VERY POWERFUL HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES
(150 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 937 MB (27.67 INCHES).

2018-08-30 15:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 301447
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Norman Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018
800 AM PDT Thu Aug 30 2018

...POWERFUL HURRICANE NORMAN STILL STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 118.0W
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Norman was located
near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 118.0 West. Norman is moving
toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion is expected
to continue today. A west-southwestward motion is forecast on
Friday, followed by a turn back toward the west and west-northwest
over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph (240 km/h)
with higher gusts. Norman is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening
is forecast during the next 12 to 24 hours. Gradual weakening is
anticipated to begin by Friday night or Saturday, however, Norman
is expected to remain a very powerful hurricane during the next
few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-08-30 15:31

WTPZ21 KNHC 301447 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
1500 UTC THU AUG 30 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 118.0W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 937 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 118.0W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 117.6W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 17.7N 119.1W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 17.2N 120.7W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 16.6N 122.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 16.1N 124.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.7N 128.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

2018-08-30 15:31

WTPZ21 KNHC 301447
TCMEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
1500 UTC THU AUG 30 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 118.0W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 937 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 118.0W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 117.6W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 17.7N 119.1W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 17.2N 120.7W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 16.6N 122.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 16.1N 124.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.7N 128.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 18.5N 133.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 20.2N 138.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 118.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

2018-08-30 15:31

WTPN33 PHNC 301600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 17.8N 117.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 117.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 17.7N 119.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 17.2N 120.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 16.6N 122.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 16.1N 124.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 16.7N 128.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.5N 133.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 20.2N 138.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
301600Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 118.1W.
HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 894 NM SOUTH OF SAN
DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 302200Z, 310400Z, 311000Z AND 311600Z. REFER TO
HURRICANE 15E (MIRIAM) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-08-30 13:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 301232
TCDEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
530 AM PDT THU AUG 30 2018

SATELLITE DATA SHOW THAT NORMAN CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN.
OBJECTIVE DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM UW/CIMSS HAVE INCREASED TO T6.5
OR HIGHER AND THE LATEST TAFB SUBJECTIVE DATA T-NUMBER IS T6.5.
THESE ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 125 KT, MAKING
NORMAN A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND
SCALE. AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASED INITIAL INTENSITY, THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD THROUGH 36 H, BUT IT IS
OTHERWISE UNCHANGED. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1230Z 17.8N 117.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 17.9N 118.5W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 31/0600Z 17.6N 120.1W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 31/1800Z 17.0N 121.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 16.3N 123.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 16.2N 127.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 18.0N 132.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 04/0600Z 20.0N 137.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

..
FORECASTER BROWN

2018-08-30 13:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 301230
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORMAN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
530 AM PDT THU AUG 30 2018

...NORMAN CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 530 AM PDT...1230 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 117.7W
ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 530 AM PDT (1230 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORMAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 117.7 WEST. NORMAN IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST
ON FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST AND
WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 145 MPH (230
KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NORMAN IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES (30 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
(110 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 942 MB (27.82 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

....
FORECASTER BROWN

2018-08-30 13:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 301229 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
1230 UTC THU AUG 30 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 117.7W AT 30/1230Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 942 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE 105SE 105SW 135NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 117.7W AT 30/1230Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 117.0W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.9N 118.5W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 17.6N 120.1W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 17.0N 121.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 16.3N 123.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.2N 127.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

2018-08-30 13:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 301229
TCMEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
1230 UTC THU AUG 30 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 117.7W AT 30/1230Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 942 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE 105SE 105SW 135NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 117.7W AT 30/1230Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 117.0W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.9N 118.5W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 17.6N 120.1W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 17.0N 121.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 16.3N 123.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.2N 127.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 18.0N 132.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 20.0N 137.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 117.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

2018-08-30 10:31

WTPN33 PHNC 301000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 17.8N 117.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 117.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 17.9N 118.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 17.6N 120.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 17.0N 121.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 16.3N 123.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 16.2N 127.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 18.0N 132.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 20.0N 137.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
301000Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 117.5W.
HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 894 NM SOUTH OF SAN
DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 301600Z, 302200Z, 310400Z AND 311000Z.//
NNNN

2018-08-30 09:31

WTPZ41 KNHC 300846 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
200 AM PDT THU AUG 30 2018

NORMAN IS IN THE MIDST OF A REMARKABLE PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. AN EYE DEVELOPED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AROUND 0500 UTC AND IS COMPLETELY SURROUNDED BY VERY COLD CLOUD
TOPS QUADRANTS. A BURST OF LIGHTNING ALSO BEGAN A COUPLE OF HOURS
AGO IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT, WHERE CLOUD TOPS ARE AS COLD AS
-84C. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES ROSE QUICKLY TO T5.5/102 KT FROM
SAB AND T5.0/90 KT FROM TAFB AT 0600 UTC, AND SINCE THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET
NEAR THE TOP OF THAT RANGE AT 100 KT, MAKING NORMAN A MAJOR
HURRICANE. NORMAN'S INTENSITY HAS INCREASED BY AN ESTIMATED 45-50
KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.

NORMAN REMAINS IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS, AND THE HURRICANE IS MOVING OVER VERY
WARM WATERS OF 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS. BARRING ANY UNFORESEEN
STRUCTURAL CHANGES LIKE AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT, NORMAN IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO, AND NEARLY ALL
OF THE INTENSITY MODELS DEPICT THE CURRENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION
PHASE PERSISTING FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS TO ACCOUNT
FOR RECENT TRENDS, AND IT CLOSELY MATCHES AN AVERAGE OF THE HCCA
MODEL, FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE, AND ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
A VERY GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER 48 HOURS AS NORMAN
ENCOUNTERS SOME SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS.

A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING WEST OF NORTHERN MEXICO IS

2018-08-30 09:31

WTPZ41 KNHC 300846
TCDEP1

Hurricane Norman Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018
200 AM PDT Thu Aug 30 2018

Norman is in the midst of a remarkable period of rapid
intensification. An eye developed in infrared satellite imagery
around 0500 UTC and is completely surrounded by very cold cloud
tops quadrants. A burst of lightning also began a couple of hours
ago in the southeastern quadrant, where cloud tops are as cold as
-84C. Subjective Dvorak estimates rose quickly to T5.5/102 kt from
SAB and T5.0/90 kt from TAFB at 0600 UTC, and since the satellite
presentation has continued to improve, the initial intensity is set
near the top of that range at 100 kt, making Norman a major
hurricane. Norman's intensity has increased by an estimated 45-50
kt over the past 24 hours.

Norman remains in a low-shear environment with good upper-level
outflow in all quadrants, and the hurricane is moving over very
warm waters of 29-30 degrees Celsius. Barring any unforeseen
structural changes like an eyewall replacement, Norman is likely to
continue strengthening for the next 24 hours or so, and nearly all
of the intensity models depict the current rapid intensification
phase persisting for the next 12 hours. The updated NHC intensity
forecast has been increased during the first 48 hours to account
for recent trends, and it closely matches an average of the HCCA
model, Florida State Superensemble, and ICON intensity consensus.
A very gradual weakening is expected after 48 hours as Norman
encounters some shear and cooler waters.

A strong subtropical ridge extending west of northern Mexico is
steering Norman westward, or 275/6 kt. The depth and strength of
the ridge is expected to force Norman west-southwestward during the
next 24-48 hours, followed by a turn back toward the west and then
west-northwest on days 3-5. The track models are in fairly good
agreement throughout the 5-day forecast period, although there are
some differences in exactly how much of an S-curve Norman will
make. The ECMWF shows the most pronounced bend in the forecast
track, starting along the southern periphery of the guidance
envelope and then moving to the northern periphery by days 4 and 5.
Although the new NHC track forecast does not follow the ECMWF
exactly, it does show slightly more bend than the previous forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 17.8N 117.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 17.9N 118.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 31/0600Z 17.6N 120.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 31/1800Z 17.0N 121.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 16.3N 123.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 16.2N 127.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 18.0N 132.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 04/0600Z 20.0N 137.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-08-30 09:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 300846 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORMAN ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
200 AM PDT THU AUG 30 2018

...NORMAN RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 117.4W
ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE NORMAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 117.4 WEST. NORMAN IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST
ON FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST AND
WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT NORMAN HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY,
AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH (185
KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NORMAN IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED
TO BEGIN BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES (30 KM) FROM THE
CENTER, AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
(110 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB (28.47 INCHES).

2018-08-30 09:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 300846
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Norman Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018
200 AM PDT Thu Aug 30 2018

...NORMAN RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 117.4W
ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Norman was located
near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 117.4 West. Norman is moving
toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to
continue through tonight. A west-southwestward motion is forecast
on Friday, followed by a turn back toward the west and
west-northwest over the weekend.

Satellite images indicate that Norman has been intensifying rapidly,
and maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185
km/h) with higher gusts. Norman is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is
forecast during the next 24 hours. Gradual weakening is anticipated
to begin by Friday night or Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-08-30 09:31

WTPZ21 KNHC 300845 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
0900 UTC THU AUG 30 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 117.4W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE 105SE 105SW 135NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 117.4W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 117.0W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.9N 118.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 17.6N 120.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 17.0N 121.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 16.3N 123.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.2N 127.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

2018-08-30 09:31

WTPZ21 KNHC 300845
TCMEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
0900 UTC THU AUG 30 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 117.4W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE 105SE 105SW 135NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 117.4W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 117.0W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.9N 118.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 17.6N 120.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 17.0N 121.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 16.3N 123.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.2N 127.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 18.0N 132.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 20.0N 137.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 117.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

2018-08-30 07:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 300236 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORMAN ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
800 PM PDT WED AUG 29 2018

...NORMAN ON A STRENGTHENING TREND...
......................................................................
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SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 116.5W
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORMAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 116.5 WEST. NORMAN IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H). A WESTWARD TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH (140 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST, AND NORMAN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON THURSDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES (30 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
(110 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB (29.03 INCHES).

2018-08-30 04:32

WTNT82 EGRR 300404

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 30.08.2018

HURRICANE MIRIAM ANALYSED POSITION : 14.1N 140.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.08.2018 0 14.1N 140.4W 981 63
1200UTC 30.08.2018 12 14.5N 141.4W 975 65
0000UTC 31.08.2018 24 15.9N 141.8W 975 67
1200UTC 31.08.2018 36 17.5N 141.1W 978 64
0000UTC 01.09.2018 48 18.9N 140.8W 990 49
1200UTC 01.09.2018 60 19.7N 141.3W 999 37
0000UTC 02.09.2018 72 20.4N 142.5W 1003 31
1200UTC 02.09.2018 84 21.0N 144.4W 1006 28
0000UTC 03.09.2018 96 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE NORMAN ANALYSED POSITION : 17.6N 116.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.08.2018 0 17.6N 116.3W 972 65
1200UTC 30.08.2018 12 18.2N 118.0W 970 66
0000UTC 31.08.2018 24 18.1N 119.8W 971 66
1200UTC 31.08.2018 36 17.8N 121.6W 975 62
0000UTC 01.09.2018 48 17.3N 123.7W 972 62
1200UTC 01.09.2018 60 16.8N 126.1W 970 66
0000UTC 02.09.2018 72 16.3N 128.5W 976 59
1200UTC 02.09.2018 84 15.7N 130.8W 975 60
0000UTC 03.09.2018 96 15.7N 132.4W 976 55
1200UTC 03.09.2018 108 16.6N 134.0W 977 57
0000UTC 04.09.2018 120 17.8N 135.8W 971 67
1200UTC 04.09.2018 132 18.2N 137.8W 975 62
0000UTC 05.09.2018 144 18.5N 139.9W 978 60

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 30.7N 175.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 31.08.2018 24 31.5N 176.5W 1003 48
1200UTC 31.08.2018 36 32.5N 178.2W 1002 43
0000UTC 01.09.2018 48 33.8N 178.2W 1001 37
1200UTC 01.09.2018 60 35.5N 178.6W 1001 35
0000UTC 02.09.2018 72 37.2N 178.9W 1002 33
1200UTC 02.09.2018 84 38.5N 179.6E 1005 25
0000UTC 03.09.2018 96 40.1N 178.4E 1009 22
1200UTC 03.09.2018 108 42.2N 178.6E 1011 20
0000UTC 04.09.2018 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 14.7N 26.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.09.2018 48 14.7N 26.3W 1007 25
1200UTC 01.09.2018 60 15.0N 28.8W 1004 28
0000UTC 02.09.2018 72 16.2N 30.7W 1005 27
1200UTC 02.09.2018 84 17.8N 32.7W 1005 33
0000UTC 03.09.2018 96 19.0N 34.9W 1006 34
1200UTC 03.09.2018 108 19.5N 36.8W 1006 36
0000UTC 04.09.2018 120 20.3N 39.1W 1006 36
1200UTC 04.09.2018 132 21.0N 40.5W 1006 34
0000UTC 05.09.2018 144 21.9N 41.8W 1008 31


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 300403

2018-08-30 04:32

WTNT80 EGRR 300403

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 30.08.2018

HURRICANE MIRIAM ANALYSED POSITION : 14.1N 140.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 30.08.2018 14.1N 140.4W MODERATE
12UTC 30.08.2018 14.5N 141.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 31.08.2018 15.9N 141.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.08.2018 17.5N 141.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2018 18.9N 140.8W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 01.09.2018 19.7N 141.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.09.2018 20.4N 142.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.09.2018 21.0N 144.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE NORMAN ANALYSED POSITION : 17.6N 116.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 30.08.2018 17.6N 116.3W STRONG
12UTC 30.08.2018 18.2N 118.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2018 18.1N 119.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.08.2018 17.8N 121.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2018 17.3N 123.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.09.2018 16.8N 126.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.09.2018 16.3N 128.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.09.2018 15.7N 130.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.09.2018 15.7N 132.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2018 16.6N 134.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2018 17.8N 135.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.09.2018 18.2N 137.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.09.2018 18.5N 139.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 30.7N 175.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 31.08.2018 31.5N 176.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 31.08.2018 32.5N 178.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2018 33.8N 178.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.09.2018 35.5N 178.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.09.2018 37.2N 178.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.09.2018 38.5N 179.6E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.09.2018 40.1N 178.4E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2018 42.2N 178.6E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 14.7N 26.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 01.09.2018 14.7N 26.3W WEAK
12UTC 01.09.2018 15.0N 28.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.09.2018 16.2N 30.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.09.2018 17.8N 32.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.09.2018 19.0N 34.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2018 19.5N 36.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2018 20.3N 39.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.09.2018 21.0N 40.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.09.2018 21.9N 41.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 300403

2018-08-30 03:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 300236 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
800 PM PDT WED AUG 29 2018

NORMAN IS STEADILY STRENGTHENING. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE
THAT THE HURRICANE NOW HAS A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE WITH A BANDED
EYE FEATURE EVIDENT IN THAT DATA. THE EYE IS NOT YET APPARENT IN
GEOSTATIONARY IMAGES, BUT THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS IMPROVING IN
ORGANIZATION AND THE CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO BECOME COLDER. A BLEND
OF THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 0000 UTC SUPPORTED AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KT, AND SINCE THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED, THE INITIAL WIND SPEED FOR THIS ADVISORY IS
INCREASED TO 75 KT. NOW THAT NORMAN HAS AN INNER CORE, RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO WHILE THE
HURRICANE REMAINS IN NEAR IDEAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THE SHIPS
RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDICES ARE VERY HIGH, AND THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE UPPER END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE
SHORT TERM. BEYOND A COUPLE OF DAYS, AN INCREASE IN SHEAR
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS SHOULD PROMOTE A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND.

SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE FORWARD SPEED OF NORMAN HAS
SLOWED TO 280/7 KT. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFYING TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO MOVE WESTWARD OR
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THAT TIME. THEREAFTER, A TURN BACK TO THE
WEST AND THEN WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
PREDICTED AS NORMAN MOVES CLOSER TO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT, AND

2018-08-30 03:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 300236
TCDEP1

Hurricane Norman Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018
800 PM PDT Wed Aug 29 2018

Norman is steadily strengthening. Recent microwave images indicate
that the hurricane now has a well-defined inner core with a banded
eye feature evident in that data. The eye is not yet apparent in
geostationary images, but the convective pattern is improving in
organization and the cloud tops continue to become colder. A blend
of the satellite intensity estimates at 0000 UTC supported an
initial intensity of 70 kt, and since the system continues to
become better organized, the initial wind speed for this advisory is
increased to 75 kt. Now that Norman has an inner core, rapid
intensification is expected during the next 24 hours or so while the
hurricane remains in near ideal environmental conditions. The SHIPS
rapid intensification indices are very high, and the NHC intensity
forecast remains near the upper end of the model guidance in the
short term. Beyond a couple of days, an increase in shear
and slightly cooler waters should promote a gradual weakening trend.

Satellite images suggest that the forward speed of Norman has
slowed to 280/7 kt. All of the models show a mid-level ridge
amplifying to the north of the tropical cyclone during the next few
days, and this should cause the hurricane to move westward or
west-southwestward during that time. Thereafter, a turn back to the
west and then west-northwest with an increase in forward speed is
predicted as Norman moves closer to the western periphery of the
ridge. The model guidance remains in fairly good agreement, and
the NHC track forecast lies near the various consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 17.9N 116.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 18.0N 117.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 31/0000Z 18.0N 119.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 31/1200Z 17.5N 120.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 16.8N 122.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 16.0N 126.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 16.9N 130.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 18.5N 136.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-08-30 03:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 300236
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORMAN ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
800 PM PDT WED AUG 29 2018

...NORMAN ON A STRENGTHENING TREND...
................EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 116.5W
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORMAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 116.5 WEST. NORMAN IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H). A WESTWARD TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH (140 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST, AND NORMAN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON THURSDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES (30 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
(110 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB (29.03 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

...............
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-08-30 03:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 300235 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
0300 UTC THU AUG 30 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 116.5W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 116.5W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 116.2W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 18.0N 117.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 18.0N 119.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 17.5N 120.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 16.8N 122.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 16.0N 126.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

2018-08-30 03:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 300235
TCMEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
0300 UTC THU AUG 30 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 116.5W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 116.5W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 116.2W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 18.0N 117.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 18.0N 119.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 17.5N 120.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 16.8N 122.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 16.0N 126.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 16.9N 130.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 18.5N 136.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 116.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-08-30 03:32

WTPN33 PHNC 300400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 17.8N 116.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 116.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 18.0N 117.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 18.0N 119.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 17.5N 120.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 16.8N 122.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 16.0N 126.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 16.9N 130.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 18.5N 136.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
300400Z POSITION NEAR 17.9N 116.7W.
HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 895 NM SOUTH OF SAN
DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 301000Z, 301600Z, 302200Z AND 310400Z. REFER TO
HURRICANE 15E (MIRIAM) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

2018-08-30 01:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 292043 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORMAN ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
200 PM PDT WED AUG 29 2018

...ANOTHER HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...
......................................................................
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
.....T
....TW
...TWO
IN
A
DAY...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 116.1W
ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORMAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 116.1 WEST. NORMAN IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL TRACK
WITH A TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH (120 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST, AND NORMAN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON THURSDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES (30 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
(95 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB (29.15 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

2018-08-29 22:32

WTPN33 PHNC 292200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN) WARNING NR 006
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 16E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 17.6N 115.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 115.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 17.8N 117.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 17.9N 118.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 17.5N 120.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 17.0N 122.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 16.0N 125.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 16.0N 130.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 17.5N 135.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
292200Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 116.2W.
HURRICANE 16E (NORMAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 909 NM SOUTH OF SAN
DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 300400Z, 301000Z, 301600Z AND 302200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 15E (MIRIAM) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

2018-08-29 21:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 292044 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
200 PM PDT WED AUG 29 2018

NORMAN'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE WITH NUMEROUS
CONVECTIVE BANDS AND EXCELLENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. MORE
IMPORTANTLY, SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN EYE FEATURE WHICH HAS BEEN
DEPICTED INTERMITTENTLY. DVORAK NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE
REACHED T4.0, AND ON THIS BASIS, NORMAN IS BEING UPGRADED TO
HURRICANE STATUS IN THIS ADVISORY. THE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND
WARM OCEAN CONTINUES TO BE IDEAL FOR INTENSIFICATION, AND GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BE PRETTY AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING THE WINDS UP FAST.
THE NHC FORECAST INDICATES RAPID INTENSIFICATION, AND PREDICTS
NORMAN TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

NORMAN APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WHICH IS CONTROLLING THE MOTION OF THE
HURRICANE IS EXPANDING WESTWARD, AND THE FLOW PATTERN AROUND THE
RIDGE SHOULD STEER NORMAN ON A WEST OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK
FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN
REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT, AND MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AT
LEAST FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND CONTINUE TO LIE VERY CLOSE TO THE CORRECTED
CONSENSUS HCCA AND THE MULTI-MODEL AIDS. THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST IS QUITE HIGH AT THIS TIME.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 17.6N 116.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 17.8N 117.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 17.9N 118.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 31/0600Z 17.5N 120.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 31/1800Z 17.0N 122.0W 115 KT 130 MPH

2018-08-29 21:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 292044
TCDEP1

Hurricane Norman Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018
200 PM PDT Wed Aug 29 2018

Norman's cloud pattern has continued to organize with numerous
convective bands and excellent upper-level outflow. More
importantly, satellite images show an eye feature which has been
depicted intermittently. Dvorak numbers from TAFB and SAB have
reached T4.0, and on this basis, Norman is being upgraded to
hurricane status in this advisory. The environment of low shear and
warm ocean continues to be ideal for intensification, and guidance
continues to be pretty aggressive in bringing the winds up fast.
The NHC forecast indicates rapid intensification, and predicts
Norman to become a major hurricane in about 24 hours.

Norman appears to be moving toward the west or 270 degrees at 8 kt.
The high pressure ridge which is controlling the motion of the
hurricane is expanding westward, and the flow pattern around the
ridge should steer Norman on a west or even west-southwest track
for the next 3 to 4 days. Track guidance continues to be in
remarkably good agreement, and models are tightly clustered at
least for the next 3 to 4 days. The NHC forecast is very similar to
the previous one, and continue to lie very close to the corrected
consensus HCCA and the multi-model aids. The confidence in the track
forecast is quite high at this time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 17.6N 116.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 17.8N 117.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 17.9N 118.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 31/0600Z 17.5N 120.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 31/1800Z 17.0N 122.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 16.0N 125.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 16.0N 130.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 03/1800Z 17.5N 135.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-08-29 21:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 292043
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NORMAN ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
200 PM PDT WED AUG 29 2018

...ANOTHER HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...
..............TWO IN A DAY...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 116.1W
ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORMAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 116.1 WEST. NORMAN IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL TRACK
WITH A TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH (120 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST, AND NORMAN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON THURSDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES (30 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
(95 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB (29.15 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

.............
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-08-29 21:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 292043 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
2100 UTC WED AUG 29 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 116.1W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 116.1W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 115.7W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 17.8N 117.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.9N 118.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 17.5N 120.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 17.0N 122.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 16.0N 125.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

2018-08-29 21:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 292043
TCMEP1

HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
2100 UTC WED AUG 29 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 116.1W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 116.1W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 115.7W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 17.8N 117.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.9N 118.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 17.5N 120.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 17.0N 122.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 16.0N 125.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 16.0N 130.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 17.5N 135.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 116.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-08-29 16:32

WTPN33 PHNC 291600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16E (NORMAN) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 17.6N 115.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 115.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 17.9N 116.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 18.1N 118.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 17.9N 119.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 17.5N 121.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 16.2N 124.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 16.0N 129.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 17.5N 134.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
291600Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 115.6W.
TROPICAL STORM 16E (NORMAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 912 NM SOUTH
OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 16
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292200Z, 300400Z, 301000Z AND 301600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15E (MIRIAM) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-08-29 16:32

WTNT82 EGRR 291605

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 29.08.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 20.6N 168.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.08.2018 0 20.6N 168.3W 1008 28
0000UTC 30.08.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM ANALYSED POSITION : 14.1N 139.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.08.2018 0 14.1N 139.2W 992 52
0000UTC 30.08.2018 12 13.9N 140.9W 992 48
1200UTC 30.08.2018 24 14.2N 141.8W 986 57
0000UTC 31.08.2018 36 15.6N 142.0W 983 56
1200UTC 31.08.2018 48 17.4N 141.5W 984 65
0000UTC 01.09.2018 60 18.8N 141.5W 993 47
1200UTC 01.09.2018 72 19.8N 142.2W 1000 35
0000UTC 02.09.2018 84 21.1N 143.5W 1004 30
1200UTC 02.09.2018 96 22.7N 145.7W 1006 31
0000UTC 03.09.2018 108 23.9N 147.5W 1008 25
1200UTC 03.09.2018 120 25.0N 150.0W 1010 25
0000UTC 04.09.2018 132 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM NORMAN ANALYSED POSITION : 17.4N 115.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.08.2018 0 17.4N 115.1W 991 45
0000UTC 30.08.2018 12 17.8N 116.8W 984 55
1200UTC 30.08.2018 24 18.1N 118.5W 980 54
0000UTC 31.08.2018 36 18.1N 120.3W 979 57
1200UTC 31.08.2018 48 17.8N 122.1W 979 60
0000UTC 01.09.2018 60 17.4N 124.5W 976 60
1200UTC 01.09.2018 72 16.7N 127.0W 973 63
0000UTC 02.09.2018 84 15.8N 129.6W 973 64
1200UTC 02.09.2018 96 15.0N 131.9W 972 61
0000UTC 03.09.2018 108 15.0N 133.3W 974 55
1200UTC 03.09.2018 120 16.0N 134.7W 973 59
0000UTC 04.09.2018 132 17.3N 136.6W 972 67
1200UTC 04.09.2018 144 18.1N 138.8W 974 63

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 26.7N 170.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.08.2018 12 26.7N 170.4W 1008 30
1200UTC 30.08.2018 24 30.3N 173.6W 1009 38
0000UTC 31.08.2018 36 31.5N 177.0W 1001 49
1200UTC 31.08.2018 48 32.3N 178.4W 1001 43
0000UTC 01.09.2018 60 33.3N 178.6W 1000 35
1200UTC 01.09.2018 72 34.4N 178.6W 999 37
0000UTC 02.09.2018 84 35.5N 179.5W 996 43
1200UTC 02.09.2018 96 36.2N 178.8E 1001 35
0000UTC 03.09.2018 108 37.0N 176.7E 1005 25
1200UTC 03.09.2018 120 38.1N 175.5E 1008 22
0000UTC 04.09.2018 132 39.4N 175.3E 1010 20
1200UTC 04.09.2018 144 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 13.4N 23.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.09.2018 60 15.0N 24.3W 1008 27
1200UTC 01.09.2018 72 15.6N 28.3W 1005 30
0000UTC 02.09.2018 84 16.0N 30.7W 1005 27
1200UTC 02.09.2018 96 17.3N 31.9W 1006 28
0000UTC 03.09.2018 108 18.8N 33.5W 1007 31
1200UTC 03.09.2018 120 19.7N 35.4W 1008 31
0000UTC 04.09.2018 132 19.9N 37.0W 1009 28
1200UTC 04.09.2018 144 20.5N 38.7W 1010 27

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 16.8N 118.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.09.2018 96 16.8N 118.3W 1005 32
0000UTC 03.09.2018 108 17.2N 118.6W 1003 32
1200UTC 03.09.2018 120 17.6N 118.1W 1002 30
0000UTC 04.09.2018 132 17.4N 118.8W 1001 33
1200UTC 04.09.2018 144 17.0N 119.8W 1000 34


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 291604

2018-08-29 16:32

WTNT80 EGRR 291605

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 29.08.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 20.6N 168.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.08.2018 20.6N 168.3W WEAK
00UTC 30.08.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM ANALYSED POSITION : 14.1N 139.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.08.2018 14.1N 139.2W MODERATE
00UTC 30.08.2018 13.9N 140.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2018 14.2N 141.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 31.08.2018 15.6N 142.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.08.2018 17.4N 141.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2018 18.8N 141.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.09.2018 19.8N 142.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.09.2018 21.1N 143.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.09.2018 22.7N 145.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.09.2018 23.9N 147.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2018 25.0N 150.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM NORMAN ANALYSED POSITION : 17.4N 115.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.08.2018 17.4N 115.1W MODERATE
00UTC 30.08.2018 17.8N 116.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.08.2018 18.1N 118.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2018 18.1N 120.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.08.2018 17.8N 122.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2018 17.4N 124.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.09.2018 16.7N 127.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.09.2018 15.8N 129.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.09.2018 15.0N 131.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.09.2018 15.0N 133.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2018 16.0N 134.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2018 17.3N 136.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.09.2018 18.1N 138.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 26.7N 170.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 30.08.2018 26.7N 170.4W WEAK
12UTC 30.08.2018 30.3N 173.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2018 31.5N 177.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 31.08.2018 32.3N 178.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2018 33.3N 178.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.09.2018 34.4N 178.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.09.2018 35.5N 179.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.09.2018 36.2N 178.8E WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.09.2018 37.0N 176.7E WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.09.2018 38.1N 175.5E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2018 39.4N 175.3E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 13.4N 23.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 01.09.2018 15.0N 24.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.09.2018 15.6N 28.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.09.2018 16.0N 30.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.09.2018 17.3N 31.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.09.2018 18.8N 33.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2018 19.7N 35.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2018 19.9N 37.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.09.2018 20.5N 38.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 16.8N 118.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 02.09.2018 16.8N 118.3W WEAK
00UTC 03.09.2018 17.2N 118.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2018 17.6N 118.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2018 17.4N 118.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.09.2018 17.0N 119.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 291604

2018-08-29 15:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 291434 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
800 AM PDT WED AUG 29 2018

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVED IN ORGANIZATION, AND
SSMIS DATA AT 1400 UTC INDICATE THAT AN INNER CORE IS BEGINNING TO
FORM. THE AREA OF CONVECTION IS LARGE WITH A WELL DEFINED
CYCLONICALLY CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM, WHILE THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS EXPANDING WESTWARD. BASED ON OBJECTIVE AND
SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT 55 KT.
THE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATERS IS IDEAL FOR NORMAN TO
INTENSIFY, AND IN FACT, THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) INDICES ARE
QUITE HIGH. ON THIS BASIS, THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR NORMAN TO
BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT AND A MAJOR HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT. THE HURRICANE IS READY TO
START MOVING MORE WESTWARD OR EVEN ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AS
THE NOSE OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO EXPAND WESTWARD AND
AMPLIFY. MOST OF THE MODELS CAPTURED THE BUILDING OF THE RIDGE, AND
UNANIMOUSLY FORECAST THE CYCLONE TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE
NEXT 2 TO 4 DAYS. THE CONFIDENCE IS THE FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 3
TO 4 DAYS IS HIGH SINCE TRACK MODELS ARE REALLY CLUSTERED. THE NEW
NHC FORECAST IS NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND IT LIES
BETWEEN THE CORRECTED CONSENSUS HCCA AND THE MULTIMODEL AIDS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 17.8N 115.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 17.9N 116.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 18.1N 118.2W 90 KT 105 MPH

2018-08-29 15:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 291434
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Norman Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018
800 AM PDT Wed Aug 29 2018

The cloud pattern has continued to improved in organization, and
SSMIS data at 1400 UTC indicate that an inner core is beginning to
form. The area of convection is large with a well defined
cyclonically curved band wrapping around the system, while the
upper-level outflow is expanding westward. Based on objective and
subjective T-numbers, the initial intensity has been set at 55 kt.
The environment of low shear and warm waters is ideal for Norman to
intensify, and in fact, the Rapid Intensification (RI) indices are
quite high. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for Norman to
become a hurricane by tonight and a major hurricane in a day or so.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the
west-northwest or 285 degrees at 9 kt. The hurricane is ready to
start moving more westward or even on a west-southwestward track as
the nose of the ridge to the north begins to expand westward and
amplify. Most of the models captured the building of the ridge, and
unanimously forecast the cyclone to move west-southwestward for the
next 2 to 4 days. The confidence is the forecast during the first 3
to 4 days is high since track models are really clustered. The new
NHC forecast is not too different from the previous one, and it lies
between the corrected consensus HCCA and the multimodel aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 17.8N 115.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 17.9N 116.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 18.1N 118.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 17.9N 119.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 31/1200Z 17.5N 121.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 16.2N 124.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 16.0N 129.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 03/1200Z 17.5N 134.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-08-29 15:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 291434
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NORMAN ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
800 AM PDT WED AUG 29 2018

...NORMAN FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 115.7W
ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORMAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 115.7 WEST. NORMAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H), BUT A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAPID STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS,
AND NORMAN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY, AND
POSSIBLY A MAJOR HURRICANE ON THURSDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB (29.36 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.

....
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-08-29 15:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 291434 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
1500 UTC WED AUG 29 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 115.7W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 115.7W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 115.1W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 17.9N 116.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 18.1N 118.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 17.9N 119.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 17.5N 121.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 16.2N 124.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

2018-08-29 15:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 291434
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
1500 UTC WED AUG 29 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 115.7W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 115.7W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 115.1W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 17.9N 116.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 18.1N 118.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 17.9N 119.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 17.5N 121.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 16.2N 124.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 16.0N 129.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 17.5N 134.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 115.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-08-29 10:32

WTPN33 PHNC 291000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16E (NORMAN) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 17.4N 114.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4N 114.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 17.8N 115.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 18.0N 117.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 18.1N 118.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 17.8N 120.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 16.7N 124.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 16.0N 128.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 17.0N 132.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
291000Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 114.7W.
TROPICAL STORM 16E (NORMAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 931 NM SOUTH
OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 291600Z, 292200Z, 300400Z AND 301000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15E (MIRIAM) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-08-29 09:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 290854 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
300 AM MDT WED AUG 29 2018

EVEN THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A DEARTH OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY OVERNIGHT,
NORMAN'S INFRARED SATELLITE SIGNATURE HAS THE LOOK OF A CYCLONE
READY TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
BANDING CONTINUES TO INCREASE, WITH THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY EXPANDING
IN NEARLY ALL QUADRANTS. NORMAN'S INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 50
KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. OCEAN
WATERS OF NEARLY 30 DEGREES CELSIUS AND LOW SHEAR FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS ARE OFFERING AN IDEAL ENVIRONMENT FOR NORMAN TO
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY. THE VARIOUS RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) INDICES
CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH PROBABILITIES, AND OVERALL THE NEW INTENSITY
GUIDANCE IS HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST
36 HOURS. BASED ON THESE NUMBERS, THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST HAS BEEN BUMPED UPWARD, CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE AND INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS, BUT STILL NOT NEARLY AS
HIGH AS THE HWRF OR HCCA MODELS. IT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISING AT ALL
FOR THE FORECAST INTENSITIES TO BE INCREASED FURTHER IN SUBSEQUENT
ADVISORY PACKAGES, AND NORMAN IS LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER
TODAY.

NORMAN IS MOVING WESTWARD, OR 275/9 KT, TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO.
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
CAUSING NORMAN TO CONTINUE WESTWARD--OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD--AT
A FAIRLY STEADY PACE FOR THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS. EXCEPT FOR THE GFS,
WHICH APPEARS TO BE A BIT OF A NORTHERN OUTLIER, THE REMAINDER OF

2018-08-29 09:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 290854
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Norman Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018
300 AM MDT Wed Aug 29 2018

Even though there has been a dearth of microwave imagery overnight,
Norman's infrared satellite signature has the look of a cyclone
ready to strengthen significantly over the next couple of days.
Banding continues to increase, with the convective canopy expanding
in nearly all quadrants. Norman's initial intensity is set at 50
kt based on a blend of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Ocean
waters of nearly 30 degrees Celsius and low shear for the next
couple of days are offering an ideal environment for Norman to
rapidly intensify. The various Rapid Intensification (RI) indices
continue to show high probabilities, and overall the new intensity
guidance is higher than the previous forecast during the first
36 hours. Based on these numbers, the updated NHC intensity
forecast has been bumped upward, close to the Florida State
Superensemble and intensity consensus aids, but still not nearly as
high as the HWRF or HCCA models. It wouldn't be surprising at all
for the forecast intensities to be increased further in subsequent
advisory packages, and Norman is likely to become a hurricane later
today.

Norman is moving westward, or 275/9 kt, to the south of the
subtropical ridge, which extends westward from northern Mexico.
The ridge is forecast to build westward during the next few days,
causing Norman to continue westward--or even west-southwestward--at
a fairly steady pace for the next 4-5 days. Except for the GFS,
which appears to be a bit of a northern outlier, the remainder of
the track guidance is tightly clustered, at least for the first 3
days. After that time, the overall guidance envelope has shifted
slightly northward, requiring a subtle northward adjustment of the
NHC official forecast by day 5. This new forecast generally lies
closest to the HCCA and Florida State Superensemble aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 17.5N 114.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 17.8N 115.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 18.0N 117.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 18.1N 118.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 31/0600Z 17.8N 120.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 16.7N 124.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 16.0N 128.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 03/0600Z 17.0N 132.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-08-29 09:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 290853
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NORMAN ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
300 AM MDT WED AUG 29 2018

...NORMAN FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME A HURRICANE
LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 114.6W
ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORMAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 114.6 WEST. NORMAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). A FAIRLY STEADY
WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAPID STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND NORMAN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE
LATER TODAY, AND POSSIBLY A MAJOR HURRICANE ON THURSDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB (29.50 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 AM MDT.

....
FORECASTER BERG

2018-08-29 09:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 290853 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
0900 UTC WED AUG 29 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 114.6W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 114.6W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 114.2W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 17.8N 115.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 18.0N 117.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 18.1N 118.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 17.8N 120.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 16.7N 124.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

2018-08-29 09:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 290853
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
0900 UTC WED AUG 29 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 114.6W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 114.6W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 114.2W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 17.8N 115.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 18.0N 117.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 18.1N 118.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 17.8N 120.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 16.7N 124.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 16.0N 128.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 17.0N 132.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 114.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

2018-08-29 07:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 290234 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NORMAN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
900 PM MDT TUE AUG 28 2018

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM...
......................................................................
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
.....L
....LI
...LIK
..LIKE
.LIKEL
LIKELY
TO
BECOME
A
HURRICANE
TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 113.9W
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORMAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 113.9 WEST. NORMAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H), AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THEREAFTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS, AND NORMAN WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW, AND
COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB (29.53 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

2018-08-29 04:32

WTNT82 EGRR 290403

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 29.08.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.0N 168.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.08.2018 0 19.0N 168.3W 1007 24
1200UTC 29.08.2018 12 20.9N 168.5W 1008 29
0000UTC 30.08.2018 24 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM ANALYSED POSITION : 14.4N 136.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.08.2018 0 14.4N 136.9W 997 44
1200UTC 29.08.2018 12 14.2N 139.4W 993 48
0000UTC 30.08.2018 24 14.5N 141.1W 994 44
1200UTC 30.08.2018 36 15.0N 142.1W 990 51
0000UTC 31.08.2018 48 16.4N 142.1W 985 56
1200UTC 31.08.2018 60 18.1N 141.4W 988 55
0000UTC 01.09.2018 72 19.4N 141.6W 997 41
1200UTC 01.09.2018 84 20.5N 142.7W 1001 33
0000UTC 02.09.2018 96 21.9N 144.1W 1004 29
1200UTC 02.09.2018 108 23.8N 146.0W 1006 31
0000UTC 03.09.2018 120 25.5N 147.9W 1008 28
1200UTC 03.09.2018 132 26.9N 150.0W 1010 26
0000UTC 04.09.2018 144 28.2N 152.1W 1012 23

TROPICAL STORM NORMAN ANALYSED POSITION : 17.3N 113.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.08.2018 0 17.3N 113.4W 999 36
1200UTC 29.08.2018 12 17.7N 115.1W 993 40
0000UTC 30.08.2018 24 18.0N 116.9W 986 53
1200UTC 30.08.2018 36 18.1N 118.5W 981 53
0000UTC 31.08.2018 48 18.0N 120.4W 979 57
1200UTC 31.08.2018 60 17.5N 122.3W 978 55
0000UTC 01.09.2018 72 16.9N 124.3W 975 61
1200UTC 01.09.2018 84 16.2N 126.6W 971 63
0000UTC 02.09.2018 96 15.6N 129.1W 967 66
1200UTC 02.09.2018 108 15.2N 131.4W 967 66
0000UTC 03.09.2018 120 15.4N 133.4W 964 67
1200UTC 03.09.2018 132 16.5N 135.2W 963 71
0000UTC 04.09.2018 144 17.9N 137.0W 966 72

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 15.7N 26.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.09.2018 84 15.7N 26.3W 1007 27
0000UTC 02.09.2018 96 17.4N 27.9W 1009 24
1200UTC 02.09.2018 108 18.6N 30.3W 1009 27
0000UTC 03.09.2018 120 19.7N 31.9W 1011 27
1200UTC 03.09.2018 132 20.3N 34.3W 1011 27
0000UTC 04.09.2018 144 20.1N 36.3W 1013 24

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 18.0N 116.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.09.2018 132 17.6N 117.8W 1004 26
0000UTC 04.09.2018 144 17.3N 118.4W 1003 25

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 16.3N 109.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.09.2018 132 16.3N 109.3W 1004 29
0000UTC 04.09.2018 144 17.5N 110.8W 1000 33


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 290403

2018-08-29 04:32

WTNT80 EGRR 290403

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 29.08.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.0N 168.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.08.2018 19.0N 168.3W WEAK
12UTC 29.08.2018 20.9N 168.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM ANALYSED POSITION : 14.4N 136.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.08.2018 14.4N 136.9W MODERATE
12UTC 29.08.2018 14.2N 139.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2018 14.5N 141.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2018 15.0N 142.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2018 16.4N 142.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 31.08.2018 18.1N 141.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2018 19.4N 141.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.09.2018 20.5N 142.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.09.2018 21.9N 144.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.09.2018 23.8N 146.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.09.2018 25.5N 147.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2018 26.9N 150.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2018 28.2N 152.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM NORMAN ANALYSED POSITION : 17.3N 113.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.08.2018 17.3N 113.4W MODERATE
12UTC 29.08.2018 17.7N 115.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.08.2018 18.0N 116.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.08.2018 18.1N 118.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 31.08.2018 18.0N 120.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.08.2018 17.5N 122.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2018 16.9N 124.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.09.2018 16.2N 126.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.09.2018 15.6N 129.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.09.2018 15.2N 131.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.09.2018 15.4N 133.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2018 16.5N 135.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2018 17.9N 137.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 15.7N 26.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.09.2018 15.7N 26.3W WEAK
00UTC 02.09.2018 17.4N 27.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.09.2018 18.6N 30.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.09.2018 19.7N 31.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2018 20.3N 34.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2018 20.1N 36.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 18.0N 116.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.09.2018 17.6N 117.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.09.2018 17.3N 118.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 16.3N 109.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.09.2018 16.3N 109.3W WEAK
00UTC 04.09.2018 17.5N 110.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 290403

2018-08-29 04:17

WTPN33 PHNC 282200 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 002A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 17.3N 112.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 112.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 18.0N 113.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 18.5N 115.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 18.5N 117.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 18.5N 119.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 17.8N 123.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 16.5N 127.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 16.0N 132.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
282200Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 112.7W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 963 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
281800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290400Z, 291000Z, 291600Z AND
292200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15E (MIRIAM) WARNINGS (WTPN32
PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED REFERENCE TO 15E.//
NNNN

2018-08-29 04:17

WTPN33 PHNC 282200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 17.3N 112.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 112.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 18.0N 113.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 18.5N 115.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 18.5N 117.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 18.5N 119.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 17.8N 123.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 16.5N 127.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 16.0N 132.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
282200Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 112.7W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 963 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
281800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290400Z, 291000Z, 291600Z AND
292200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15E (MIRIAM) WARNINGS (WTPN32
PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-08-29 03:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 290236 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
900 PM MDT TUE AUG 28 2018

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER ORGANIZED OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A BAND OF VERY COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION NOW
SPIRALS WELL OVER HALFWAY AROUND THE CIRCULATION. DVORAK T-NUMBERS
FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE UP TO 3.0, WHICH CORRESPONDS TO A
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 45 KT. ON THIS BASIS THE SYSTEM IS BEING
UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM, MAKING NORMAN THE FOURTEENTH NAMED
TROPICAL CYCLONE OF THIS BUSY EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE
SEASON. SINCE NORMAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER WARM WATERS AND
THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL SHEAR AND MOIST MID-LEVEL
AIR, CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY. IN FACT, THE VARIOUS RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI) INDICES SHOW HIGH PROBABILITIES OF RI.
THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS INTENSITY CHANGES OF 30 AND 35
KT PER DAY FROM 0-24 HOURS AND 24-48 HOURS RESPECTIVELY. THIS IS
ALSO CLOSE TO THE SIMPLE INTENSITY CONSENSUS BUT BELOW THE HFIP
CORRECTED CONSENSUS AND THE LATEST HWRF MODEL RUN.

THE MOST RECENT GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE CENTER FIXES
INDICATE THAT NORMAN IS LOCATED A LITTLE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK, BUT THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS ABOUT THE
SAME AS BEFORE, 290/9 KT. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS EXPANDING WESTWARD.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST VERY SOON.
LATER IN THE PERIOD, THE RIDGE BUILDS A LITTLE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE NORMAN TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.

2018-08-29 03:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 290236
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Norman Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018
900 PM MDT Tue Aug 28 2018

The tropical cyclone has become significantly better organized over
the past several hours. A band of very cold-topped convection now
spirals well over halfway around the circulation. Dvorak T-numbers
from both TAFB and SAB are up to 3.0, which corresponds to a
current intensity of 45 kt. On this basis the system is being
upgraded to a tropical storm, making Norman the fourteenth named
tropical cyclone of this busy eastern North Pacific hurricane
season. Since Norman will continue to move over warm waters and
through an environment of low vertical shear and moist mid-level
air, continued strengthening is likely. In fact, the various Rapid
Intensification (RI) Indices show high probabilities of RI.
Therefore the official forecast shows intensity changes of 30 and 35
kt per day from 0-24 hours and 24-48 hours respectively. This is
also close to the simple intensity consensus but below the HFIP
Corrected Consensus and the latest HWRF model run.

The most recent geostationary and microwave satellite center fixes
indicate that Norman is located a little south and southwest of the
previous track, but the initial motion estimate remains about the
same as before, 290/9 kt. The cyclone is moving along the southern
periphery of a large mid-level ridge which is expanding westward.
This should cause the system to turn toward the west very soon.
Later in the period, the ridge builds a little to the southwest and
this will likely cause Norman to turn toward the west-southwest.
The official track forecast is a little south of the previous one,
but close to the latest simple and corrected model consensus
predictions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 17.5N 113.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 17.9N 115.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 18.2N 117.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 18.3N 118.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 31/0000Z 18.1N 120.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 17.2N 124.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 16.0N 128.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 03/0000Z 16.0N 132.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

2018-08-29 03:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 290234
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NORMAN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
900 PM MDT TUE AUG 28 2018

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM...
................LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 113.9W
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORMAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 113.9 WEST. NORMAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H), AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THEREAFTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS, AND NORMAN WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW, AND
COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB (29.53 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 AM MDT.

...............
FORECASTER PASCH

2018-08-29 03:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 290233 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
0300 UTC WED AUG 29 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 113.9W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 113.9W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 113.4W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 17.9N 115.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 18.2N 117.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 18.3N 118.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 18.1N 120.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 17.2N 124.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

2018-08-29 03:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 290233
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
0300 UTC WED AUG 29 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 113.9W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 113.9W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 113.4W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 17.9N 115.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 18.2N 117.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 18.3N 118.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 18.1N 120.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 17.2N 124.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 16.0N 128.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 16.0N 132.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 113.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

2018-08-29 03:32

WTPN33 PHNC 290400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16E (NORMAN) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 17.4N 113.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4N 113.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 17.9N 115.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 18.2N 117.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 18.3N 118.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 18.1N 120.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 17.2N 124.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 16.0N 128.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 16.0N 132.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
290400Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 114.0W.
TROPICAL STORM 16E (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 940 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 16
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291000Z, 291600Z, 292200Z AND 300400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15E (MIRIAM) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-08-28 21:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 282031 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
300 PM MDT TUE AUG 28 2018

THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NUMEROUS BANDING FEATURES, BUT THE LATEST AVAILABLE MICROWAVE DATA
SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE DOES NOT HAVE AN INNER CORE YET. SINCE THE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED FROM EARLIER TODAY,
THE WINDS ARE KEPT AT 30 KT IN THIS ADVISORY.

THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW
SHEAR AND HIGH SSTS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ON THIS BASIS, THE
NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING, AND FOR THE DEPRESSION TO
REACH HURRICANE STATUS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION THEREAFTER. THE HWRF IS STILL THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
MODEL AND FORECASTS THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A VERY STRONG
HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE REMAINDER OF THE
GUIDANCE, WHICH SUPPORTS A MORE MODEST INTENSIFICATION.

BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES, THE INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT. THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED SOUTH
OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS
TO REMAIN STRONG AND EXPAND WESTWARD. THIS FLOW PATTERN SHOULD FORCE
THE CYCLONE TO TURN MORE TO WEST AND EVEN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. SINCE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS REASONABLE SOLUTION, THE NHC FORECAST LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, AND VERY CLOSE TO THE HCCA CORRECTED CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 17.5N 112.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 18.0N 113.9W 40 KT 45 MPH

2018-08-28 21:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 282031
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018
300 PM MDT Tue Aug 28 2018

The cloud pattern is a little better organized this afternoon with
numerous banding features, but the latest available microwave data
suggest that the cyclone does not have an inner core yet. Since the
satellite intensity estimates have not changed from earlier today,
the winds are kept at 30 kt in this advisory.

The cyclone is expected to continue within an environment of low
shear and high SSTs for the next several days. On this basis, the
NHC forecast calls for strengthening, and for the depression to
reach hurricane status in about 36 hours with additional
intensification thereafter. The HWRF is still the most aggressive
model and forecasts the depression to become a very strong
hurricane. The official forecast follows the remainder of the
guidance, which supports a more modest intensification.

Based on satellite fixes, the initial motion is toward the
west-northwest or 295 degrees at 9 kt. The cyclone is located south
of a strong subtropical ridge which is forecast by the global models
to remain strong and expand westward. This flow pattern should force
the cyclone to turn more to west and even toward the west-southwest
during the next 5 days. Since models are in good agreement with
this reasonable solution, the NHC forecast lies in the middle of the
guidance envelope, and very close to the HCCA corrected consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 17.5N 112.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 18.0N 113.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 18.5N 115.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 18.5N 117.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 18.5N 119.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 31/1800Z 17.8N 123.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 16.5N 127.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 02/1800Z 16.0N 132.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-08-28 21:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 282031
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
300 PM MDT TUE AUG 28 2018

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR
TWO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 112.5W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SIXTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 112.5
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR
10 MPH (17 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR SO WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND
WEST-SOUTHWEST THEREAFTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY OR ON WEDNESDAY, AND A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 PM MDT.

....
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-08-28 21:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 282030 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
2100 UTC TUE AUG 28 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 112.5W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 112.5W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 112.1W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.0N 113.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.5N 115.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 18.5N 117.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 18.5N 119.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 17.8N 123.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 16.5N 127.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

2018-08-28 21:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 282030
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
2100 UTC TUE AUG 28 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 112.5W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 112.5W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 112.1W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.0N 113.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.5N 115.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 18.5N 117.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 18.5N 119.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 17.8N 123.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 16.5N 127.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 16.0N 132.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 112.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-08-28 20:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 281440 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
900 AM MDT TUE AUG 28 2018

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WELL OFF
THE COAST OF MEXICO...
......................................................................
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
.....N
....NO
THREAT
TO
LAND...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 111.8W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE
111.8 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR
10 MPH (17 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR SO WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST THEREAFTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR ON
WEDNESDAY, AND A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

2018-08-28 16:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 281602 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E
FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
1500 UTC TUE AUG 28 2018

CORRECTED TO ADD 34-KT WIND RADII FOR 12-HOUR FORECAST

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 111.8W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 111.8W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 111.4W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.7N 112.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 18.4N 114.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 18.8N 116.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 18.9N 118.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 18.5N 121.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 17.5N 126.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

2018-08-28 16:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 281602 CCA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E
FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
1500 UTC TUE AUG 28 2018

CORRECTED TO ADD 34-KT WIND RADII FOR 12-HOUR FORECAST

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 111.8W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 111.8W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 111.4W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.7N 112.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 18.4N 114.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 18.8N 116.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 18.9N 118.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 18.5N 121.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 17.5N 126.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 17.0N 130.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 111.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-08-28 16:32

WTPN33 PHNC 281600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 17.0N 111.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 111.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 17.7N 112.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 18.4N 114.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 18.8N 116.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 18.9N 118.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 18.5N 121.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 17.5N 126.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.0N 130.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
281600Z POSITION NEAR 17.2N 111.9W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 991 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 282200Z, 290400Z, 291000Z AND 291600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15E (MIRIAM) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-08-28 16:32

WTPN32 PHNC 281600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/271421ZAUG2018
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 17.0N 111.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 111.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 17.7N 112.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 18.4N 114.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 18.8N 116.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 18.9N 118.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 18.5N 121.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 17.5N 126.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.0N 130.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
281600Z POSITION NEAR 17.2N 111.9W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 991 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 282200Z, 290400Z, 291000Z AND 291600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15E (MIRIAM) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 1271430).//
NNNN

2018-08-28 16:32

WTNT82 EGRR 281603

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 28.08.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.2N 168.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.08.2018 0 18.2N 168.2W 1006 23
0000UTC 29.08.2018 12 19.2N 168.7W 1007 22
1200UTC 29.08.2018 24 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 134.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.08.2018 0 13.9N 134.7W 985 67
0000UTC 29.08.2018 12 14.1N 137.1W 985 61
1200UTC 29.08.2018 24 14.1N 139.2W 982 60
0000UTC 30.08.2018 36 14.3N 141.0W 982 63
1200UTC 30.08.2018 48 14.8N 142.3W 980 61
0000UTC 31.08.2018 60 16.1N 142.6W 980 60
1200UTC 31.08.2018 72 18.2N 142.3W 977 70
0000UTC 01.09.2018 84 20.4N 142.1W 984 62
1200UTC 01.09.2018 96 22.5N 142.7W 996 50
0000UTC 02.09.2018 108 24.4N 143.9W 1002 38
1200UTC 02.09.2018 120 26.3N 145.9W 1007 30
0000UTC 03.09.2018 132 28.3N 147.4W 1008 31
1200UTC 03.09.2018 144 30.0N 148.3W 1011 25

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E ANALYSED POSITION : 16.5N 110.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.08.2018 0 16.5N 110.8W 1006 18
0000UTC 29.08.2018 12 17.6N 112.9W 1005 23
1200UTC 29.08.2018 24 18.1N 115.3W 1003 25
0000UTC 30.08.2018 36 18.2N 117.4W 1001 33
1200UTC 30.08.2018 48 18.1N 119.3W 999 37
0000UTC 31.08.2018 60 17.5N 121.6W 993 42
1200UTC 31.08.2018 72 16.6N 123.8W 988 50
0000UTC 01.09.2018 84 15.6N 126.1W 987 50
1200UTC 01.09.2018 96 14.7N 128.2W 992 43
0000UTC 02.09.2018 108 13.6N 129.8W 992 43
1200UTC 02.09.2018 120 12.7N 131.3W 984 57
0000UTC 03.09.2018 132 13.2N 132.6W 983 54
1200UTC 03.09.2018 144 14.4N 134.5W 981 52

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 12.0N 167.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.09.2018 84 12.0N 167.0W 1006 21
1200UTC 01.09.2018 96 11.9N 167.6W 1005 20
0000UTC 02.09.2018 108 12.0N 167.6W 1003 26
1200UTC 02.09.2018 120 12.0N 167.1W 999 34
0000UTC 03.09.2018 132 12.4N 166.9W 996 38
1200UTC 03.09.2018 144 12.8N 167.3W 993 41

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 15.9N 114.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.09.2018 96 16.1N 114.9W 1000 36
0000UTC 02.09.2018 108 16.7N 116.3W 994 43
1200UTC 02.09.2018 120 17.8N 117.4W 989 53
0000UTC 03.09.2018 132 18.8N 118.6W 981 61
1200UTC 03.09.2018 144 19.2N 119.0W 971 64

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 16.4N 27.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.09.2018 108 16.4N 27.8W 1009 24
1200UTC 02.09.2018 120 17.3N 30.3W 1009 24
0000UTC 03.09.2018 132 18.4N 31.9W 1010 26
1200UTC 03.09.2018 144 19.5N 34.7W 1011 27


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 281602

2018-08-28 16:32

WTNT80 EGRR 281602

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 28.08.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.2N 168.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 28.08.2018 18.2N 168.2W WEAK
00UTC 29.08.2018 19.2N 168.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 134.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 28.08.2018 13.9N 134.7W MODERATE
00UTC 29.08.2018 14.1N 137.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2018 14.1N 139.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2018 14.3N 141.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2018 14.8N 142.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2018 16.1N 142.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.08.2018 18.2N 142.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2018 20.4N 142.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.09.2018 22.5N 142.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.09.2018 24.4N 143.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.09.2018 26.3N 145.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.09.2018 28.3N 147.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2018 30.0N 148.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16E ANALYSED POSITION : 16.5N 110.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 28.08.2018 16.5N 110.8W WEAK
00UTC 29.08.2018 17.6N 112.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2018 18.1N 115.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2018 18.2N 117.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2018 18.1N 119.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2018 17.5N 121.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 31.08.2018 16.6N 123.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.09.2018 15.6N 126.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.09.2018 14.7N 128.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.09.2018 13.6N 129.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.09.2018 12.7N 131.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.09.2018 13.2N 132.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2018 14.4N 134.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 12.0N 167.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 01.09.2018 12.0N 167.0W WEAK
12UTC 01.09.2018 11.9N 167.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.09.2018 12.0N 167.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.09.2018 12.0N 167.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.09.2018 12.4N 166.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2018 12.8N 167.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 15.9N 114.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.09.2018 16.1N 114.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.09.2018 16.7N 116.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.09.2018 17.8N 117.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.09.2018 18.8N 118.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.09.2018 19.2N 119.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 16.4N 27.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 02.09.2018 16.4N 27.8W WEAK
12UTC 02.09.2018 17.3N 30.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.09.2018 18.4N 31.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2018 19.5N 34.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 281602

2018-08-28 15:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 281440 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
900 AM MDT TUE AUG 28 2018

SINCE THE PREVIOUS SCATTEROMETER PASS AROUND 0430 UTC, THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY. THE CLOUD PATTERN NOW
CONSISTS OF A COUPLE OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS, WITH
THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM LOCATED ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A
CIRCULAR AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS, AS INDICATED BY A GMI MICROWAVE PASS
AT 1201 UTC. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE
T2.5 AND T2.0, RESPECTIVELY, ON THE DVORAK SCALE, AND ON THIS BASIS,
ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WITH AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT.

THE DEPRESSION HAS PLENTY OF TIME TO INTENSIFY GIVEN THAT THE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF WARM OCEAN AND LIGHT SHEAR ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR THE
DEPRESSION TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 2 DAYS WITH ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. THE FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL, AND FOLLOWS THE TREND OF MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE.

SINCE GENESIS HAS JUST OCCURRED, THE INITIAL MOTION IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295
DEGREES AT 9 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH, AND THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO STEER THE DEPRESSION ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER THAT TIME, THE NOSE OF THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY, AND WILL FORCE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE
WEST OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWEST. THIS IS VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK

2018-08-28 15:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 281440
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018
900 AM MDT Tue Aug 28 2018

Since the previous scatterometer pass around 0430 UTC, the satellite
presentation has improved significantly. The cloud pattern now
consists of a couple of cyclonically curved convective bands, with
the center of the system located on the northeastern edge of a
circular area of thunderstorms, as indicated by a GMI microwave pass
at 1201 UTC. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are
T2.5 and T2.0, respectively, on the Dvorak scale, and on this basis,
advisories are initiated on Tropical Depression Sixteen-E with an
initial intensity of 30 kt.

The depression has plenty of time to intensify given that the
environmental conditions of warm ocean and light shear are expected
to prevail during the next 5 days. The NHC forecast calls for the
depression to become a hurricane in about 2 days with additional
strengthening thereafter. The forecast is very close to the
intensity consensus model, and follows the trend of most of the
guidance.

Since genesis has just occurred, the initial motion is somewhat
uncertain. The best estimate is toward the west-northwest or 295
degrees at 9 kt. The depression is currently located on the
southwestern edge of a subtropical high, and this flow pattern will
continue to steer the depression on the same general track during
the next day or two. After that time, the nose of the ridge is
expected to amplify, and will force the cyclone to turn toward the
west or even west-southwest. This is very consistent with the track
guidance, and the NHC forecast lies in between the HCCA corrected
consensus model and the other consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 17.1N 111.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 17.7N 112.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 18.4N 114.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 18.8N 116.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 18.9N 118.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 18.5N 121.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 17.5N 126.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 17.0N 130.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-08-28 15:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 281440
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
900 AM MDT TUE AUG 28 2018

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WELL OFF
THE COAST OF MEXICO...
..........NO THREAT TO LAND...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 111.8W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE
111.8 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR
10 MPH (17 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR SO WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST THEREAFTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR ON
WEDNESDAY, AND A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 PM MDT.

.........
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-08-28 15:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 281440
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018
1500 UTC TUE AUG 28 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 111.8W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 111.8W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 111.4W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.7N 112.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 18.4N 114.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 18.8N 116.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 18.9N 118.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 18.5N 121.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 17.5N 126.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 17.0N 130.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 111.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

..
FORECASTER AVILA