Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ELEVEN-18
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.




Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 231431
TCDAT1

Remnants Of Eleven Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112018
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018

Visible images show that the depression has degenerated into a
trough of low pressure accompanied by a few showers. This
disturbance is moving westward toward an even more hostile
shear environment, and regeneration is not anticipated.

This is the last NHC advisory on this system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 14.5N 56.0W 20 KT 25 MPH
12H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 231430
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Eleven Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112018
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018

...DEPRESSION DEGENERATES INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 56.0W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM ENE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the remnants of Tropical Depression
Eleven were located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 56.0 West.
The remnants are moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h).

Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph (35 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional weakening is expected over the next day or so.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Avila


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 231430
TCMAT1

REMNANTS OF ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112018
1500 UTC SUN SEP 23 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 56.0W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 56.0W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 55.5W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 56.0W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER AVILA


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 230832
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112018
500 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018

Satellite images indicate that the depression is poorly organized.
The circulation is becoming increasingly elongated, and it seems
likely that a closed circulation may no longer exist. However, we
are maintaining advisories for now to wait for visible imagery to
better assess the low-level circulation. The depression continues
to produce a few patches of deep convection, but these are confined
to the east and northeast portions of the circulation due to about
35 kt of westerly shear. The initial intensity remains 25 kt based
on the earlier ASCAT data.

The system is moving into an environment of even stronger westerly
wind shear. These hostile winds and dry air should cause the
depression to dissipate, if it has not already, later today or
tonight. The depression, or its remnants, are expected to move
slowly west-northwestward for another day or so.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 14.5N 55.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 15.0N 56.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 230831
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112018
500 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018

...POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
SOON...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 55.0W
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM ENE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven
was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 55.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A
slow west-northwest to northwest motion is expected until the
system dissipates in a day or so.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. The depression is expected to dissipate by tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 230831
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112018
0900 UTC SUN SEP 23 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 55.0W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 55.0W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 54.7W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 15.0N 56.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 55.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 230235
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112018
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 22 2018

Although deep convection has increased since earlier today, it has
become increasingly difficult to identify a well-defined center
associated with the depression. After moving erratically during the
afternoon, the center of the depression appears to have become
disrupted by convection to its east, and it is unclear at this point
if a closed surface circulation still exists. Since visible imagery
is not currently available and recent ASCAT data from around 0000Z
was inconclusive, at least one more advisory will be issued under
the assumption that the depression has not quite yet dissipated.

The initial motion is highly uncertain, but it is assumed that the
system is still moving generally northwestward, or 310/3 kt. No
substantial changes were made to the NHC intensity or track
forecasts. All available guidance indicates that the depression will
continue to move slowly west-northwestward or northwestward for the
next day or two while it gradually weakens due to continued strong
wind shear. Given the recent increase in convection, it no longer
seems likely that the system will become a remnant low prior to
dissipating. Therefore, the NHC forecast now keeps the system as a
tropical depression until dissipation occurs in 36 h, if not sooner.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 13.8N 54.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 14.2N 55.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 14.5N 56.6W 20 KT 25 MPH
36H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 230236
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112018
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 22 2018

...POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL DEPRESSION CREEPING NORTHWESTWARD...
...COULD DISSIPATE AS SOON AS SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 54.5W
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven
was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 54.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A
slow west-northwestward or northwestward motion is expected for the
next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is forecast to dissipate on Sunday or early Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 230234
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112018
0300 UTC SUN SEP 23 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 54.5W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 54.5W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 54.2W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.2N 55.3W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.5N 56.6W
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 54.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 222037
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112018
500 PM AST Sat Sep 22 2018

Since the last advisory was issued, deep convection decreased in
association with the depression to the point that it was not
classifiable with the Dvorak technique at 18Z. However, there are a
couple of patches of thunderstorms that have developed recently,
and if they persist they could help the system hold on to tropical
cyclone status a bit longer. The low-level center remains exposed
with UW-CIMSS now analyzing nearly 45 kt of westerly shear over the
cyclone. Gradual spin down is expected during the next 12 to 24
hours, and the cyclone should become a remnant low by Sunday. Global
model fields show the surface circulation dissipating by 36 hours
and that is indicated in the official forecast.

The low-level center has been moving erratically today, with a
recent northward jog seen, but the long-term initial motion estimate
is 305/03. The weakening cyclone should be steered west-
northwestward by a weak low-level ridge through dissipation, and
the NHC track forecast has been nudged northward toward the latest
multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 13.6N 53.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 13.9N 54.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 23/1800Z 14.4N 56.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 222036
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112018
500 PM AST Sat Sep 22 2018

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 53.9W
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven
was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 53.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A
faster west-northwestward motion is expected to begin tonight and
continue through dissipation.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is expected to weaken to a remnant low tonight or
Sunday and dissipate Sunday night east of the Lesser Antilles.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 222036
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112018
2100 UTC SAT SEP 22 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 53.9W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 53.9W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 53.9W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 13.9N 54.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.4N 56.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 53.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 221604

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 22.09.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIRK ANALYSED POSITION : 7.9N 22.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.09.2018 0 7.9N 22.2W 1010 20
0000UTC 23.09.2018 12 9.1N 24.4W 1010 20
1200UTC 23.09.2018 24 9.6N 27.0W 1011 27
0000UTC 24.09.2018 36 10.0N 30.9W 1010 29
1200UTC 24.09.2018 48 10.0N 34.5W 1008 32
0000UTC 25.09.2018 60 10.0N 38.0W 1006 36
1200UTC 25.09.2018 72 10.3N 40.8W 1004 38
0000UTC 26.09.2018 84 11.2N 43.7W 1000 42
1200UTC 26.09.2018 96 11.7N 46.1W 998 42
0000UTC 27.09.2018 108 12.8N 47.7W 997 45
1200UTC 27.09.2018 120 14.2N 48.7W 996 49
0000UTC 28.09.2018 132 15.6N 49.3W 992 59
1200UTC 28.09.2018 144 16.7N 50.2W 995 58

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 29.3N 64.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.09.2018 0 29.3N 64.9W 1011 24
0000UTC 23.09.2018 12 28.3N 66.3W 1011 28
1200UTC 23.09.2018 24 28.2N 67.7W 1012 27
0000UTC 24.09.2018 36 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.2N 53.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.09.2018 0 13.2N 53.5W 1009 27
0000UTC 23.09.2018 12 13.9N 54.2W 1009 27
1200UTC 23.09.2018 24 14.3N 55.4W 1011 24
0000UTC 24.09.2018 36 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 33.5N 44.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 23.09.2018 12 33.5N 44.5W 1005 32
1200UTC 23.09.2018 24 33.1N 47.6W 1006 36
0000UTC 24.09.2018 36 33.4N 47.2W 1007 32
1200UTC 24.09.2018 48 33.0N 49.7W 1010 28
0000UTC 25.09.2018 60 31.4N 48.9W 1010 25
1200UTC 25.09.2018 72 31.5N 46.9W 1008 26
0000UTC 26.09.2018 84 32.0N 45.9W 1006 39
1200UTC 26.09.2018 96 29.8N 44.3W 1006 41
0000UTC 27.09.2018 108 29.7N 42.5W 1004 40
1200UTC 27.09.2018 120 28.5N 42.2W 1001 45
0000UTC 28.09.2018 132 29.2N 40.1W 998 45
1200UTC 28.09.2018 144 28.9N 39.6W 998 43

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 16.3N 113.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.09.2018 96 16.3N 113.4W 1005 20
0000UTC 27.09.2018 108 16.4N 114.6W 1002 28
1200UTC 27.09.2018 120 16.9N 115.7W 999 33
0000UTC 28.09.2018 132 16.9N 117.0W 995 40
1200UTC 28.09.2018 144 16.8N 117.9W 991 42


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 221603


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 221604

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 22.09.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIRK ANALYSED POSITION : 7.9N 22.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 22.09.2018 7.9N 22.2W WEAK
00UTC 23.09.2018 9.1N 24.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.09.2018 9.6N 27.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.09.2018 10.0N 30.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.09.2018 10.0N 34.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.09.2018 10.0N 38.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.09.2018 10.3N 40.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.09.2018 11.2N 43.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.09.2018 11.7N 46.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.09.2018 12.8N 47.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.09.2018 14.2N 48.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.09.2018 15.6N 49.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.09.2018 16.7N 50.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 29.3N 64.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 22.09.2018 29.3N 64.9W WEAK
00UTC 23.09.2018 28.3N 66.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.09.2018 28.2N 67.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.2N 53.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 22.09.2018 13.2N 53.5W WEAK
00UTC 23.09.2018 13.9N 54.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.09.2018 14.3N 55.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 33.5N 44.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 23.09.2018 33.5N 44.5W WEAK
12UTC 23.09.2018 33.1N 47.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.09.2018 33.4N 47.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.09.2018 33.0N 49.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.09.2018 31.4N 48.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.09.2018 31.5N 46.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.09.2018 32.0N 45.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.09.2018 29.8N 44.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.09.2018 29.7N 42.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.09.2018 28.5N 42.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.09.2018 29.2N 40.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.09.2018 28.9N 39.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 16.3N 113.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 26.09.2018 16.3N 113.4W WEAK
00UTC 27.09.2018 16.4N 114.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.09.2018 16.9N 115.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.09.2018 16.9N 117.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.09.2018 16.8N 117.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 221603


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 221432
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112018
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 22 2018

It appears that the depression's best day is behind it, as the
cloud pattern has become less organized this morning. The low-level
center is becoming increasingly separated from the warming cloud
tops in what remains of the deep convection, which is displaced to
the east by nearly 40 kt of west-southwesterly shear as analyzed by
UW-CIMSS. The initial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt,
consistent with a T1.0 classification from TAFB. Given that the
strong shear is expected to continue and the depression will be
moving through a relatively dry environment, the cyclone should
gradually spin down and become a remnant low by 24 hours and
dissipate by 48 hours. However, I would not be surprised if either
or both of these occurred sooner.

The center of the depression hasn't moved much during the past few
hours, but a long-term initial motion estimate is 280/03. The
weakening cyclone should be steered westward to west-northwestward
by a low-level ridge. The new NHC track forecast is north of the
previous one but remains along the southern edge of the guidance
envelope given doubts about how much latitude such a shallow system
will gain prior to dissipation.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 13.2N 53.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 13.6N 54.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 14.0N 55.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 24/0000Z 14.4N 56.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 221431
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112018
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 22 2018

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR TWO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 53.8W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven
was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 53.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A
westward to west-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward
speed is expected during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or two,
and the depression is forecast to become a remnant low on Sunday
and dissipate east of the Lesser Antilles Sunday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 221431
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112018
1500 UTC SAT SEP 22 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 53.8W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 53.8W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 53.6W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.6N 54.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.0N 55.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.4N 56.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 53.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 220836
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112018
500 AM AST Sat Sep 22 2018

Deep convection remains displaced to the east of the depression's
center due to 30-40 kt of westerly shear. Although Dvorak final-T
numbers from TAFB and SAB have decreased since yesterday--now a
consensus T1.0--the initial intensity is held, perhaps generously,
at 30 kt. Strong westerly shear is expected to persist for several
days, which at the very least will prevent the depression from
getting any better organized. Since the global models show the
depression opening up into a trough in about 24 hours, the new NHC
intensity forecast brings down the winds a little faster, shows the
system becoming a remnant low by 36 hours, and dissipates the low
entirely by 48 hours well east of the Windward Islands. This
evolution could certainly occur more quickly than indicated by the
official forecast.

The center of the depression has not been moving much, and it's
possible the sheared convection is trying to pull it back toward
the east. However, the average motion over the past 12 hours is
westward, or 270/4 kt. The track guidance insists that the
depression should move slowly west-northwestward over the next
couple of days, but given that the system has not made any
northward progress, I elected to skirt the southern edge of the
guidance envelope. This new forecast is a little south of the
previous NHC track prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 13.0N 53.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 13.3N 54.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 13.6N 55.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 13.8N 56.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 220835
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112018
500 AM AST Sat Sep 22 2018

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NOT MOVING VERY MUCH...
...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR TWO...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 53.5W
ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven
was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 53.5 West. The
depression is moving slowly toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A
slow westward or west-northwestward motion is expected during the
next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so,
and the depression is expected to dissipate east of the Lesser
Antilles by Sunday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 220835
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112018
0900 UTC SAT SEP 22 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 53.5W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 53.5W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 53.5W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 13.3N 54.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 13.6N 55.4W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 13.8N 56.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 53.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 220249
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112018
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 21 2018

The small, but well-defined, low pressure system located about 500
miles east of the Lesser Antilles has been producing steady
convection for the past several hours. Although this convection is
displaced to the south and east of the exposed low-level center due
to strong westerly wind shear, it has persisted long enough to meet
the NHC definition of a tropical cyclone. On this basis, advisories
are being initiated on Tropical Depression Eleven.

The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on ASCAT data from
earlier today which showed a couple of 25-30 kt wind vectors in the
northeast quadrant of the circulation. The intensity guidance is in
extremely good agreement that the depression is unlikely to
strengthen. All of the global models forecast an increase in
upper-level winds over the small cyclone during the next 24 h. In
fact, SHIPS diagnostics indicate that the 850-200 mb shear could
exceed 30 kt by tomorrow morning, and will be near 40 kt within 48
h. As a result of this shear and some dry air also in the vicinity,
the dynamical models unanimously forecast dissipation within 72 h,
and most show that the depression will open into a trough of low
pressure sooner than that. The NHC forecast conservatively maintains
the tropical cyclone for 48 h, but it could weaken and dissipate
sooner than currently indicated.

The depression has recently been moving almost due west, but a
longer-term motion yields an initial motion of 290/5 kt. A break in
the subtropical ridge to the north of the depression should result
in fairly weak steering flow for the next day or two, and only a
slow west-northwestward to westward motion is anticipated. All of
the typically-reliable track models are in fairly good agreement on
this scenario. The NHC forecast is very close to HCCA at all
forecast hours, and lies near the south edge of the tight guidance
envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 13.1N 53.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 13.5N 54.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 13.8N 55.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 14.2N 56.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 14.5N 58.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 220248
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112018
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 21 2018

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...
...FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WITHIN A FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 53.4W
ABOUT 510 MI...825 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven
was located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 53.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h),
and this general motion will likely continue for the next couple
of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected for the next day or two. The
depression is forecast to dissipate late this weekend or early next
week before it reaches the Lesser Antilles.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 220248
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112018
0300 UTC SAT SEP 22 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 53.4W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 53.4W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 53.2W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 13.5N 54.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.8N 55.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.2N 56.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.5N 58.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 53.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY