Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for LESLIE-18
in Portugal

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones (WT) or Tsunami (WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present. The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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2018-10-13 21:31

WTNT43 KNHC 132036
TCDAT3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie Discussion Number 70
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 PM AST Sat Oct 13 2018

After a total of 70 advisories, long-lived Leslie has become
post-tropical just west of the coast of Portugal, finally succumbing
to the combination of cool waters, strong vertical wind shear, and
interaction with an approaching cold front. The air mass ahead of
the cyclone has moistened up in the low levels with Faro, Portugal,
reporting a dewpoint of 70F/21C, but the dewpoints across central
and northern Portugal ahead of Leslie are only in the low-60F range,
which is not indicative of a tropical air mass. Thus, the cyclone is
now a powerful post-tropical low pressure system that even has a
partial eye noted in the most recent 2000Z Portuguese composite
radar imagery. After landfall, rapid weakening is anticipated, and
Leslie is forecast to degenerate into a broad low pressure area over
or just north of Spain by late Sunday.

Leslie is moving quickly toward the northeast or 050/30 kt.
Post-tropical Cyclone Leslie should continue in a fast northeastward
direction for the next 12-18 hours, making landfall near or just
south of Porto, Portugal by 14/0000Z. This forecast motion is
consistent with the previous advisory and the latest track model
guidance.

The meteorological services of Portugal and Spain are handling
hazards information for their respective countries via local weather
products. This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory
on this system.


Key Messages:

1. Leslie is expected to bring near hurricane-force winds to
portions of Portugal later tonight as a powerful post-tropical
cyclone. Gale-force winds are also likely to affect portions of
northwestern and northern Spain tonight and Sunday.

2. Leslie is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 25 to 75 mm (1
to 3 inches) with isolated amounts as high as 125 mm (5 inches)
across portions of Portugal and Spain, which could cause flash
flooding.

3. For more information on Leslie, interests in Portugal should
refer to products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and
Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt. Interests in Spain should refer to
products from the State Meteorological Agency at www.aemet.es.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 40.5N 9.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 14/0600Z 43.0N 4.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL INLAND
24H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-13 21:31

WTNT33 KNHC 132035
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie Advisory Number 70
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 PM AST Sat Oct 13 2018

...LONG-LIVED LESLIE PREPARING TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF PORTUGAL AS A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...DANGEROUS WINDS, SURF, AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF PORTUGAL AND SPAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.5N 9.5W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSW OF PORTO PORTUGAL
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM N OF LISBON PORTUGAL
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Portugal and Spain should monitor the progress of
Leslie. Additional information on this system can be found in
products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at
www.ipma.pt. Interests in Spain should refer to products from the
State Meteorological Agency at www.aemet.es.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie
was located near latitude 40.5 North, longitude 9.5 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 35 mph (56
km/h) and this motion is expected to continue during the next 24
hours with a decrease in forward speed. On this track, the center of
Leslie will be near the west-central coast of Portugal in a few
hours, and move inland over portions of central and northern
Portugal tonight, and across northwestern and northern Spain Sunday
morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast after Leslie moves inland over the
Iberian peninsula, and the cyclone is forecast to dissipate by
Sunday afternoon or evening.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center. Lisbon, Portugal recently reported a wind gust to
40 mph (65 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Post-tropical Leslie will bring winds to near hurricane-force
to portions of Portugal tonight, and gale-force winds to portions of
western amd northern Spain later tonight through early Sunday.
Please see products from your local meteorological service for more
information on this hazard.

RAINFALL: Leslie is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) with localized amounts up to 5 inches
(125 mm) across portions of Portugal and Spain this weekend. This
rainfall may lead to some instances of flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect the
Azores, Madeira Island, and the Canary Islands through the weekend,
and will begin to affect the Atlantic coasts of Spain, Portugal, and
Morocco today and continuing into Sunday. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Leslie.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-13 21:31

WTNT23 KNHC 132035
TCMAT3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 70
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
2100 UTC SAT OCT 13 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN PORTUGAL AND SPAIN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
LESLIE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN
PRODUCTS FROM THE PORTUGUESE INSTITUTE FOR SEA AND ATMOSPHERE AT
WWW.IPMA.PT. INTERESTS IN SPAIN SHOULD REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM THE
STATE METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY AT WWW.AEMET.ES.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.5N 9.5W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 30 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 540SW 540NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.5N 9.5W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 10.5W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 43.0N 4.9W...POST-TROPICAL INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.5N 9.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON LESLIE.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

2018-10-13 18:31

WTNT63 KNHC 131733
TCUAT3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
200 PM AST Sat Oct 13 2018

Satellite data and surface observations indicate that Leslie has
acquired extratropical characteristics and is now a post-tropical
cyclone with 70 mph (110 km/h) winds.


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.2N 11.3W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM WNW OF LISBON PORTUGAL
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 33 MPH...54 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-10-13 16:31

WTNT82 EGRR 131556

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 13.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98E ANALYSED POSITION : 16.2N 100.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP982018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.10.2018 0 16.2N 100.9W 1008 25
0000UTC 14.10.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 37.3N 14.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.10.2018 0 37.3N 14.5W 970 70
0000UTC 14.10.2018 12 42.3N 7.5W 992 34
1200UTC 14.10.2018 24 46.1N 3.5W 994 41
0000UTC 15.10.2018 36 49.4N 3.8W 999 28
1200UTC 15.10.2018 48 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 16.3N 103.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.10.2018 72 16.9N 103.4W 1003 26
0000UTC 17.10.2018 84 18.0N 103.7W 997 40
1200UTC 17.10.2018 96 18.6N 105.0W 994 50
0000UTC 18.10.2018 108 19.0N 105.5W 993 46
1200UTC 18.10.2018 120 19.4N 106.7W 997 40
0000UTC 19.10.2018 132 20.9N 107.2W 995 36
1200UTC 19.10.2018 144 22.6N 108.1W 998 37

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 11.9N 114.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.10.2018 96 11.9N 114.0W 1007 26
0000UTC 18.10.2018 108 12.1N 112.9W 1005 26
1200UTC 18.10.2018 120 13.0N 111.8W 1004 31
0000UTC 19.10.2018 132 13.8N 110.1W 1004 31
1200UTC 19.10.2018 144 14.3N 108.5W 1004 25

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 14.1N 93.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.10.2018 96 14.1N 93.3W 1004 30
0000UTC 18.10.2018 108 14.1N 93.2W 1001 38
1200UTC 18.10.2018 120 14.2N 94.9W 995 41
0000UTC 19.10.2018 132 14.4N 96.4W 992 48
1200UTC 19.10.2018 144 14.8N 98.4W 992 55

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 11.7N 138.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.10.2018 120 12.0N 138.8W 1006 24
0000UTC 19.10.2018 132 12.7N 140.0W 1005 23
1200UTC 19.10.2018 144 13.4N 140.8W 1005 26


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 131556

2018-10-13 16:31

WTNT80 EGRR 131556

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 13.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98E ANALYSED POSITION : 16.2N 100.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP982018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 13.10.2018 16.2N 100.9W WEAK
00UTC 14.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 37.3N 14.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 13.10.2018 37.3N 14.5W STRONG
00UTC 14.10.2018 42.3N 7.5W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 14.10.2018 46.1N 3.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.10.2018 49.4N 3.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 16.3N 103.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 16.10.2018 16.9N 103.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 17.10.2018 18.0N 103.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 17.10.2018 18.6N 105.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.10.2018 19.0N 105.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.10.2018 19.4N 106.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.10.2018 20.9N 107.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.10.2018 22.6N 108.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 11.9N 114.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.10.2018 11.9N 114.0W WEAK
00UTC 18.10.2018 12.1N 112.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.10.2018 13.0N 111.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.10.2018 13.8N 110.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.10.2018 14.3N 108.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 14.1N 93.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.10.2018 14.1N 93.3W WEAK
00UTC 18.10.2018 14.1N 93.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.10.2018 14.2N 94.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.10.2018 14.4N 96.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.10.2018 14.8N 98.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 11.7N 138.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 18.10.2018 12.0N 138.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.10.2018 12.7N 140.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.10.2018 13.4N 140.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 131556

2018-10-13 15:33

WTNT43 KNHC 131433
TCDAT3

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 69
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 13 2018

Despite Leslie moving over 20C ocean and being embedded within
strong shear, satellite data indicate that Leslie has maintained
its deep warm core and is running ahead of a cold front. Although
convection has weakened considerably, Dvorak estimates indicate
that the winds are still 65 kt. All indications are that Leslie
will acquire extratropical characteristics in the next several
hours, and by the time it reaches the Iberian peninsula later today,
the system will be a powerful post-tropical cyclone. After landfall,
rapid weakening is anticipated, and Leslie is forecast to degenerate
into a broad low pressure area over Spain in a day or so.

Leslie is racing toward the northeast or 055 degrees at about 29 kt
while embedded within the fast mid-latitude westerlies. A continued
northeastward motion with gradual decrease in forward speed is
anticipated in the next 12 to 24 hours. This is consistent with
most of the track guidance, which unanimously brings the core of the
post-tropical cyclone over the Iberian peninsula tonight.

The meteorological services of Portugal and Spain are handling
hazards information for their respective countries via local weather
products.


Key Messages:

1. Leslie is expected to bring near hurricane-force winds to
portions of Portugal late today as a powerful post-tropical
cyclone. Gale-force winds are also likely to affect portions of
western Spain tonight and Sunday.

2. Leslie is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 25 to 75 mm (1
to 3 inches) with isolated amounts as high as 125 mm (5 inches)
across portions of Portugal and Spain, which could cause flash
flooding.

3. For more information on Leslie, interests in Portugal should
refer to products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and
Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt. Interests in Spain should refer to
products from the State Meteorological Agency at www.aemet.es.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 38.0N 12.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 40.0N 8.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 14/1200Z 41.5N 4.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-10-13 15:32

WTNT33 KNHC 131432
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 69
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 13 2018

...DEFIANT LESLIE STILL A HURRICANE...
...DANGEROUS WINDS, SURF, AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF PORTUGAL AND SPAIN LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.0N 12.6W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM WSW OF LISBON PORTUGAL
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 33 MPH...54 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Portugal and Spain should monitor the progress of
Leslie. Additional information on this system can be found in
products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at
www.ipma.pt. Interests in Spain should refer to products from the
State Meteorological Agency at www.aemet.es.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was
located near latitude 38.0 North, longitude 12.6 West. Leslie is
moving toward the northeast near 33 mph (54 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue during the next 24 hours with a decrease
in forward speed. On this track, the center of Leslie will be near
the southwestern portion of the Iberian peninsula later today, and
move inland over portions of Portugal and Spain tonight and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Leslie is expected to transition into a hurricane-force
post-tropical cyclone during the next several hours. Weakening is
forecast after Leslie moves inland over the Iberian peninsula, and
then dissipate by Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Post-tropical Leslie will bring winds to near hurricane-force
to portions of Portugal later today or tonight, and gale-force winds
to portions of western Spain later today through early Sunday.
Please see products from your local meteorological service for more
information on this hazard.

RAINFALL: Leslie is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) with localized amounts up to 5 inches
(125 mm) across portions of Portugal and Spain this weekend. This
rainfall may lead to some instances of flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect the
Azores, Madeira Island, and the Canary Islands through the weekend,
and will begin to affect the Atlantic coasts of Spain, Portugal, and
Morocco today and continuing into Sunday. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-10-13 15:32

WTNT23 KNHC 131432
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 69
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
1500 UTC SAT OCT 13 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN PORTUGAL AND SPAIN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
LESLIE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN
PRODUCTS FROM THE PORTUGUESE INSTITUTE FOR SEA AND ATMOSPHERE AT
WWW.IPMA.PT. INTERESTS IN SPAIN SHOULD REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM THE
STATE METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY AT WWW.AEMET.ES.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 12.6W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 29 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 90SE 90SW 0NW.
34 KT.......140NE 180SE 180SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 270SE 540SW 540NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 12.6W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.2N 14.1W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 40.0N 8.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 50SE 60SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 130SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 41.5N 4.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.0N 12.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-10-13 12:31

WTNT33 KNHC 131138
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Intermediate Advisory Number 68A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
800 AM AST Sat Oct 13 2018

...LESLIE HEADING FOR THE IBERIAN PENINSULA IN A HURRY...
...DANGEROUS WINDS, SURF, AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF PORTUGAL AND SPAIN LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.3N 14.5W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM WSW OF LISBON PORTUGAL
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 38 MPH...61 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Portugal has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Madeira Island.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Portugal and Spain should monitor the progress of
Leslie. Additional information on this system can be found in
products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at
www.ipma.pt. Interests in Spain should refer to products from the
State Meteorological Agency at www.aemet.es.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located
near latitude 37.3 North, longitude 14.5 West. Leslie is moving
toward the east-northeast near 38 mph (61 km/h). A motion toward
the east-northeast with a gradual decrease in forward speed is
expected through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of
Leslie will approach the southwestern portion of the Iberian
Peninsula today, and move inland over portions of Portugal and Spain
tonight and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Leslie is expected to transition into a hurricane-force
post-tropical cyclone later today. Weakening is forecast after
Leslie moves inland over the Iberian Peninsula later today or
early Sunday, and the post-tropical cyclone is expected to dissipate
by Sunday night or Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Post-tropical Leslie will bring winds to near hurricane-force
to portions of Portugal later today or tonight, and gale-force winds
to portions of western Spain later today through early Sunday.
Please see products from your local meteorological service for more
information on this hazard.

RAINFALL: Leslie is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) with localized amounts up to 5 inches
(125 mm) across portions of Portugal and Spain this weekend. This
rainfall may lead to some instances of flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect the
Azores, Madeira Island, and the Canary Islands through the weekend,
and will begin to affect the Atlantic coasts of Spain, Portugal, and
Morocco today and continuing into Sunday. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-10-13 09:31

WTNT43 KNHC 130838
TCDAT3

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 68
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 AM AST Sat Oct 13 2018

Satellite imagery suggests that Leslie has started extratropical
transition. The mid-level eye seen earlier in both conventional
and microwave satellite imagery has become less distinct, and it is
continuing to separate from the low-level center. In addition,
colder air is entraining into the western and southern sides of the
circulation. However, a sizable cluster of convection persists to
the northeast of the center, indicating that the cyclone is still
tropical at this time. The large-scale models forecast that Leslie
will likely complete transition in 12 to perhaps 18 h, and that the
associated winds should remain at or near hurricane force until the
center moves over the Iberian Peninsula. After landfall, rapid
weakening is forecast, and the cyclone should dissipate as it
becomes part of a broad low pressure area over Spain between 36-48
h.

The initial motion is 070/33 as Leslie is now well embedded in the
mid-latitude westerlies. A continued east-northeastward motion with
a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected for the next 36 h.
This should bring the center of Leslie onshore on the Iberian
Peninsula in about 18 h and into western Spain by about 24 h. There
is little change in either the track guidance or the track forecast
from the last advisory.

The meteorological services of Portugal and Spain will handle hazard
information for their respective countries via local weather
products.


Key Messages:

1. Leslie is expected to bring near hurricane-force winds to
portions of Portugal late today as a powerful post-tropical
cyclone. Gale-force winds are also likely to affect portions of
western Spain tonight and Sunday.

2. Leslie is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 25 to 75 mm (1
to 3 inches) with isolated amounts as high as 125 mm (5 inches)
across portions of Portugal and Spain, which could cause flash
flooding.

3. For more information on Leslie, interests in Portugal should
refer to products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and
Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt. Interests in Spain should refer to
products from the State Meteorological Agency at www.aemet.es.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 36.2N 16.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 37.7N 11.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 14/0600Z 39.6N 6.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 14/1800Z 41.3N 2.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-10-13 09:31

WTNT33 KNHC 130837
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 68
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 AM AST Sat Oct 13 2018

...LESLIE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE IBERIAN PENINSULA...
...DANGEROUS WINDS, SURF, AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF PORTUGAL AND SPAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.2N 16.7W
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM E OF THE AZORES
ABOUT 680 MI...1090 KM E OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 38 MPH...61 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Madeira Island

Interests in the Portugal and Spain should monitor the progress of
Leslie. Additional information on this system can be found in
products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at
www.ipma.pt. Interests in Spain should refer to products from the
State Meteorological Agency at www.aemet.es.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 6 to 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located
near latitude 36.2 North, longitude 16.7 West. Leslie is moving
toward the east-northeast near 38 mph (61 km/h). A motion toward
the east-northeast with a gradual decrease in forward speed is
expected through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of
Leslie will pass north of Madeira Island this morning, approach the
southwestern portion of the Iberian Peninsula today, and move inland
over portions of Portugal and Spain tonight and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Leslie is expected to transition into a
hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone later today or tonight.
Weakening is forecast after Leslie moves inland over the Iberian
Peninsula tonight, and the post-tropical cyclone is expected to
dissipate by Sunday night or Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Madeira Island
this morning.

Post-tropical Leslie will bring winds to near hurricane-force to
portions of Portugal late today or tonight, and gale-force winds to
portions of western Spain late today through early Sunday. Please
see products from your local meteorological service for more
information on this hazard.

RAINFALL: Leslie is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) with localized amounts
up to 5 inches (125 mm) across portions of Portugal and Spain this
weekend. This rainfall may lead to some instances of flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect the
Azores, Madeira Island, and the Canary Islands through the weekend
and will begin to affect the Atlantic coasts of Spain, Portugal, and
Morocco today, continuing into Sunday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-10-13 09:31

WTNT23 KNHC 130836
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 68
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
0900 UTC SAT OCT 13 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MADEIRA ISLAND

INTERESTS IN THE PORTUGAL AND SPAIN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
LESLIE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN
PRODUCTS FROM THE PORTUGUESE INSTITUTE FOR SEA AND ATMOSPHERE AT
WWW.IPMA.PT. INTERESTS IN SPAIN SHOULD REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM THE
STATE METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY AT WWW.AEMET.ES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE
NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 16.7W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 33 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 90SE 90SW 0NW.
34 KT.......140NE 180SE 180SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 540SW 600NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 16.7W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 18.3W

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 37.7N 11.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 90SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 150SE 160SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 39.6N 6.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 41.3N 2.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.2N 16.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-10-13 06:31

WTNT33 KNHC 130543
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Intermediate Advisory Number 67A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
200 AM AST Sat Oct 13 2018

...LESLIE MOVING RAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE IBERIAN
PENINSULA...
...DANGEROUS WINDS, SURF, AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF PORTUGAL AND SPAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.5N 18.5W
ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM WSW OF LISBON PORTUGAL
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM NNW OF MADEIRA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 36 MPH...57 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Madeira Island

Interests in the Portugal and Spain should monitor the progress of
Leslie. Additional information on this system can be found in
products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at
www.ipma.pt. Interests in Spain should refer to products from the
State Meteorological Agency at www.aemet.es.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 6 to 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located
near latitude 35.5 North, longitude 18.5 West. Leslie is moving
toward the east-northeast near 36 mph (57 km/h). A fast motion
toward the east-northeast is expected to continue through Sunday.
On the forecast track, the center of Leslie will pass north of
Madeira Island this morning, approach the southwestern portion of
the Iberian Peninsula today, and move inland over portions of
Portugal and Spain tonight and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Leslie is expected to transition into a hurricane-force
post-tropical cyclone later today. Weakening is forecast after
Leslie moves inland over the Iberian Peninsula tonight, and the
post-tropical cyclone is expected to dissipate by Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km). Madeira Island recently reported a wind gust of
39 mph (63 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Madeira Island
this morning.

Post-tropical Leslie will bring winds to near hurricane-force to
portions of Portugal late today, and gale-force winds to portions
of western Spain late today through early Sunday. Please see
products from your local meteorological service for more information
on this hazard.

RAINFALL: Leslie is expected to produce total rain amounts on the
order of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) with localized amounts up to 4
inches (100 mm) across portions of Portugal and Spain this weekend.
This rainfall may lead to some instances of flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect the
Azores, Madeira Island, and the Canary Islands through the weekend
and will begin to affect the Atlantic coasts of Spain, Portugal, and
Morocco today, continuing into Sunday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-10-13 03:31

WTNT43 KNHC 130237
TCDAT3

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 67
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 PM AST Fri Oct 12 2018

Although Leslie continues to produce a compact area of deep
convection, microwave data since the previous advisory indicate
that the mid-level center is becoming more separated from the
low-level center due to increasing shear. Dvorak final-T numbers
have begun to decrease a bit, and the initial intensity is
therefore set at 70 kt. A cold front is beginning to wrap around
the western side of Leslie's circulation, and the global models
indicate that the cyclone should lose its warm core and become
fully embedded within the frontal zone by 24 hours, if not sooner.
Despite sea surface temperatures of 17-23 degrees Celsius ahead of
Leslie, baroclinic forcing is likely to maintain the system's
intensity as it becomes extratropical. As a result, Leslie is
forecast to reach the Iberian Peninsula as a hurricane-force
extratropical low, with the NHC intensity forecast most closely
following the GFS guidance. Rapid weakening is forecast once the
low moves inland, and the system should dissipate over the higher
terrain of Spain in about 48 hours.

The forward motion is east-northeastward, or 075/31 kt. Located
within the base of a progressive trough, Leslie should maintain
this trajectory, slowing down only a little bit before it reaches
Portugal and Spain in 24-36 hours. Except for the UKMET model,
which shows Leslie turning more northeastward toward the
northwestern Iberian Peninsula, the rest of the track guidance is
tightly clustered and brings the center inland across central
Portugal and western Spain. Because most of the models are in good
agreement and are close to the previous official forecast, no
significant changes were made to the NHC forecast on this cycle.

Based on coordination from earlier today, the meteorological
services of Portugal and Spain will handle hazard information for
their respective countries via local weather products.


Key Messages:

1. Leslie is expected to bring near hurricane-force winds to
portions of Portugal late Saturday as a powerful post-tropical
cyclone. Gale-force winds are also likely to affect portions of
western Spain Saturday night and Sunday.

2. Leslie is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 25 to 75 mm (1
to 3 inches) with isolated amounts as high as 100 mm (4 inches)
across portions of Portugal and Spain, which could cause flash
flooding.

3. For more information on Leslie, interests in Portugal should
refer to products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and
Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt. Interests in Spain should refer to
products from the State Meteorological Agency at www.aemet.es.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 34.7N 20.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 36.5N 15.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 38.9N 9.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 14/1200Z 41.0N 5.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 15/0000Z 42.3N 1.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-10-13 03:31

WTNT23 KNHC 130236
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 67
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
0300 UTC SAT OCT 13 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MADEIRA ISLAND

INTERESTS IN THE PORTUGAL AND SPAIN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
LESLIE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN
PRODUCTS FROM THE PORTUGUESE INSTITUTE FOR SEA AND ATMOSPHERE AT
WWW.IPMA.PT. INTERESTS IN SPAIN SHOULD REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM THE
STATE METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY AT WWW.AEMET.ES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 20.7W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 31 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 90SE 90SW 0NW.
34 KT.......140NE 180SE 180SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 480SW 540NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 20.7W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 22.4W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 36.5N 15.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 90SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 150SE 160SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 38.9N 9.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 41.0N 5.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 42.3N 1.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.7N 20.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

2018-10-13 00:33

WTNT33 KNHC 122336
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Intermediate Advisory Number 66A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
800 PM AST Fri Oct 12 2018

...LESLIE PASSING BETWEEN THE AZORES AND MADEIRA ISLAND...
...DANGEROUS WINDS, SURF, AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF PORTUGAL AND SPAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.4N 22.4W
ABOUT 795 MI...1280 KM WSW OF LISBON PORTUGAL
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM WNW OF MADEIRA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Madeira Island

Interests in the Portugal and Spain should monitor the progress of
Leslie. Additional information on this system can be found in
products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at
www.ipma.pt. Interests in Spain should refer to products from the
State Meteorological Agency at www.aemet.es.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 6 to 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located
near latitude 34.4 North, longitude 22.4 West. Leslie is moving
toward the east-northeast near 35 mph (56 km/h). A fast motion
toward the east-northeast is expected to continue through Saturday,
followed by a slower east-northeastward motion Saturday night and
Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Leslie will pass north
of Madeira Island tonight and early Saturday, approach the
southwestern portion of the Iberian Peninsula on Saturday, and
move inland over portions of the Iberian Peninsula late Saturday and
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Leslie is expected to transition into a hurricane-force
post-tropical cyclone on Saturday. Weakening is forecast after
Leslie moves inland over the Iberian Peninsula, and the post-
tropical cyclone is expected to dissipate by Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km), mainly
to the south of the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.70 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Madeira Island
early Saturday.

Post-tropical Leslie will bring winds to near hurricane-force to
portions of Portugal late Saturday, and tropical-storm-force winds
to portions of western Spain late Saturday and Saturday night.
Please see products from your local meteorological service for more
information on this hazard.

RAINFALL: Leslie is expected to produce total rain amounts of 1 to
3 inches (25 to 75 mm) with localized amounts up to 4 inches (100
mm) across Portugal and portions of Spain through Sunday night.
This rainfall may lead to some instances of flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Leslie will likely affect portions of
the Azores, Madeira Island, and the Canary Islands through Saturday
and will reach the Atlantic coasts of Spain, Portugal, and Morocco
over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-10-12 21:36

WTNT43 KNHC 122036
TCDAT3

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 66
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 PM AST Fri Oct 12 2018

Leslie remains a well organized tropical cyclone, with a fairly
symmetric central dense overcast, and hints of an eye in both
conventional and microwave satellite imagery. A 1738 UTC SSMIS
microwave overpass shows that there is some northeast to southwest
tilt, due to an increase in westerly shear. Some slight weakening
is foreast tonight while Leslie moves over cool SSTs of 23 to 24
degrees Celsius and into an area of increasing westerly shear.
However, Leslie is forecast to transition into a powerful hurricane-
force post-tropical cyclone in about 24 hours as it interacts with
an approaching trough. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to make
landfall along the west coast of the Iberian Peninsula shortly
thereafter, and it should weaken due to land interaction after that
time. The system is forecast to dissipate inland by Monday.

Leslie continues to race across the far eastern Atlantic, with an
initial motion estimate of 070/30 kt. The global models are now
unanimous in taking Leslie quickly east-northeastward on the south
side of a strong longwave trough over the northeast Atlantic. The
official track foreast as been adjusted northward and is
significantly faster than before, and brings the center of Leslie
over the coast of the Iberian Peninsula by 0000 UTC Sunday. The
system is likely to dissipate over the high terrain of Spain
within a couple of days, but a 48-h forecast point is shown for
continuity. Now that the track guidance is in much better
agreement, confidence in the NHC track forecast has increased.

After coordination with the meteorological services of Portugal and
Spain, they have decided to provide information on the wind hazard
with local products.

Key Messages:

1. Leslie is expected to bring near hurricane-force winds on
Saturday to portions of Portugal as a powerful post-tropical
cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds are also likely to affect
portions of western Spain.

2. Leslie is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 25 to 75 mm (1
to 3 inches) with isolated amounts as high as 100 mm (4 inches)
across portions of Portugal and Spain, which could cause flash
flooding.

3. For more information on Leslie, interests in Portugal should
refer to products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and
Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt. Interests in Spain should refer to
products from the State Meteorological Agency at www.aemet.es.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 33.9N 24.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 35.6N 18.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 38.0N 12.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 14/0600Z 40.6N 6.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL/INLAND
48H 14/1800Z 43.0N 2.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL/INLAND
72H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-12 21:36

WTNT33 KNHC 122035
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 66
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 PM AST Fri Oct 12 2018

...HURRICANE LESLIE RACING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT WIND AND RAIN IMPACTS TO PORTIONS
OF PORTUGAL AND SPAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 24.1W
ABOUT 895 MI...1445 KM SSW OF LISBON PORTUGAL
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM WNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Madeira Island

Interests in the Portugal and Spain should monitor the progress of
Leslie. Additional information on this system can be found in
products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at
www.ipma.pt. Interests in Spain should refer to products from the
State Meteorological Agency at www.aemet.es.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located
near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 24.1 West. Leslie is moving
toward the east-northeast near 35 mph (56 km/h). A fast motion
toward the east-northeastward is expected to continue through
Saturday, followed by a slower east-northeastward motion Saturday
night and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Leslie will
pass north of Madeira Island tonight and early Saturday, approach
the southwestern portion of the Iberian Peninsula on Saturday, and
move inland over portions of the Iberian Peninsula late Saturday
and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Leslie is expected to transition into a hurricane-force
post-tropical cyclone on Saturday. Weakening is forecast after
Leslie moves inland over the Iberian Peninsula, and the post-
tropical cyclone is expected to dissipate by Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km),
mainly to the south of the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Madeira Island
beginning early Saturday.

Post-tropical Leslie will bring winds to near hurricane-force to
portions of Portugal late Saturday, and tropical-storm-force winds
to portions of western Spain late Saturday and Saturday night.
Please see products from your local meteorological service for more
information on this hazard.

RAINFALL: Leslie is expected to produce total rain amounts of 1 to
3 inches (25 to 75 mm) with localized amounts up to 4 inches (100
mm) across Portugal and portions of Spain through Sunday night.
This rainfall may lead to some instances of flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Leslie will likely affect portions of
the Azores, Madeira Island and the Canary Islands through Saturday
and will reach the Atlantic coasts of Spain, Portugal, and Morocco
over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-12 21:36

WTNT23 KNHC 122035
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 66
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
2100 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MADEIRA ISLAND

INTERESTS IN THE PORTUGAL AND SPAIN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
LESLIE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN
PRODUCTS FROM THE PORTUGUESE INSTITUTE FOR SEA AND ATMOSPHERE AT
WWW.IPMA.PT. INTERESTS IN SPAIN SHOULD REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM THE
STATE METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY AT WWW.AEMET.ES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 24.1W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 30 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 60SE 50SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 100SE 70SW 30NW.
34 KT.......140NE 200SE 200SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 300SE 480SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 24.1W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 25.9W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 35.6N 18.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 90SE 70SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 180SE 180SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 38.0N 12.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 70SE 90SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 140SE 160SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 40.6N 6.5W...POST-TROPICAL/INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 90SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 43.0N 2.0W...POST-TROPICAL/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.9N 24.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

2018-10-12 18:34

WTNT33 KNHC 121749
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Intermediate Advisory Number 65A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
200 PM AST Fri Oct 12 2018

...HURRICANE LESLIE RACING ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...
...LIKELY TO BRING RAIN AND WIND IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF THE IBERIAN
PENINSULA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.3N 26.1W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM S OF THE AZORES
ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM W OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 33 MPH...54 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Madeira Island

Interests in Portugal and Spain should monitor the progress of
Leslie.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located
near latitude 33.3 North, longitude 26.1 West. Leslie is moving
toward the east-northeast near 33 mph (54 km/h). A fast motion
toward the east-northeastward is expected to continue through
Saturday morning, followed by a slower eastward motion late Saturday
through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Leslie will
pass north of Madeira Island on Saturday, and approach the
southwestern portion of the Iberian Peninsula on Saturday night, and
move inland over portions of the Iberian Peninsula on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next day or so, but
Leslie is expected to transition into a powerful post-tropical
cyclone by Saturday night. Additional weakening is forecast on
Sunday, with Leslie expected to dissipate by Monday after it moves
inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km),
mainly to the south of the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Madeira Island
beginning early Saturday.

Post-tropical Leslie will likely bring strong winds to portions of
Portugal and Spain Saturday night and Sunday. Please see products
from your local meteorological service for more information on this
hazard.

RAINFALL: Leslie is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) across southern and central
portions of Portugal and Spain through Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Leslie will likely affect portions of
the Azores, Madeira Island and the Canary Islands through Saturday
and will reach the Atlantic coasts of Spain, Portugal, and Morocco
over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-12 15:32

WTNT43 KNHC 121438
TCDAT3

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 65
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 12 2018

Leslie's cloud pattern continues to feature a central dense
overcast, but with only hints of an eye in visible imagery. A
partial northern eyewall was noted on a 0910Z SSMIS overpass. Dvorak
intensity estimates have decreased slightly, and based on this, the
initial intensity has been conservatively nudged down to 75 kt. The
wind field is quite large, especially south of the center, as
confirmed by a pair of recent ASCAT passes, and the initial wind
radii have been adjusted using those data.

The initial motion estimate is now 070/28. Leslie is moving quickly
east-northeastward on the southern side of a powerful longwave
trough centered over the north Atlantic. The track forecast
reasoning has changed since the last advisory, with the GFS, ECMWF,
and now the 06Z run of the UKMET all showing a more eastward motion
of Leslie toward the Iberian Peninsula as the cyclone is picked up
by the aforementioned trough. The new NHC track forecast has been
adjusted significantly to the north and east, especially beyond 24
hours, but still lies to the south of and is slower than the GFS and
ECMWF. Once the system moves inland, the low-level center should
dissipate over the high terrain, but a 72 hour remnant low point is
included for continuity purposes. Needless to say, confidence in the
official track forecast beyond 24 hours is quite low given the
recent shift in the models, and further adjustments will likely be
necessary.

The intensity forecast shows Leslie only slowly weakening as a
tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours due to a combination of
cool SSTs and increasing shear from the trough. However, simulated
satellite imagery and model fields suggest that Leslie will
transition to a powerful post-tropical cyclone by 36 hours, likely
still at hurricane intensity as shown by the global models.
Weakening is expected after the trough passes Leslie by, and the
mid-level circulation will likely be sheared away by strong
upper-level winds.

Leslie is expected to bring significant rain and wind impacts to
portions of Portugal and Spain by Sunday, and residents in those
areas should refer to products from their local meteorological
services for more information on these hazards.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 33.0N 28.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 34.2N 23.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 35.4N 17.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 36.0N 12.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 14/1200Z 36.3N 9.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 15/1200Z 37.0N 4.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

2018-10-12 15:32

WTNT33 KNHC 121435
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 65
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 12 2018

...HURRICANE LESLIE CONTINUES RACING ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...
...COULD BRING RAIN AND WIND IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF THE IBERIAN
PENINSULA SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.0N 28.0W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM S OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 32 MPH...52 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Madeira Island

Interests in Portugal and Spain should monitor the progress of
Leslie.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was
located near latitude 33.0 North, longitude 28.0 West. Leslie is
moving toward the east-northeast near 32 mph (52 km/h). A fast
east-northeastward motion is expected to continue through Saturday
morning, followed by a slower eastward motion late Saturday through
Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Leslie will pass north
of Madeira Island on Saturday, and approach the southwestern
portion of the Iberian Peninsula on Sunday, and move inland over
portions of the Iberian Peninsula late Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next day or so, but
Leslie is expected to transition into a powerful post-tropical
cyclone by Saturday night or early Sunday. Additional weakening is
forecast on Sunday, with Leslie expected to dissipate by Monday
after it moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km),
mainly to the south of the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Madeira Island
beginning early Saturday.

Post-tropical Leslie will likely bring strong winds to portions of
Portugal and Spain on Sunday. Please see products from your local
meteorological service for more information on this hazard.

RAINFALL: Leslie is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) across southern and central
portions of Portugal and Spain through Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Leslie will likely affect portions of
the Azores, Madeira Island and the Canary Islands through Saturday
and will reach the Atlantic coasts of Spain, Portugal, and Morocco
over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

2018-10-12 15:32

WTNT23 KNHC 121433
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 65
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
1500 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MADEIRA ISLAND

INTERESTS IN PORTUGAL AND SPAIN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
LESLIE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 28.0W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 28 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 60SE 50SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 100SE 70SW 30NW.
34 KT.......150NE 200SE 200SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 360SE 300SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 28.0W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 29.6W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 34.2N 23.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 90SE 70SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 35.4N 17.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 70SE 70SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 140SE 140SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 36.0N 12.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 20SE 30SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 40SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 110SE 140SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 36.3N 9.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 37.0N 4.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.0N 28.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

2018-10-12 12:32

WTNT33 KNHC 121139
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Intermediate Advisory Number 64A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
800 AM AST Fri Oct 12 2018

...LESLIE RACING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.3N 29.8W
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
ABOUT 735 MI...1180 KM W OF MADEIRA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Madeira Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located
near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 29.8 West. Leslie is moving
toward the east-northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h). A continued east-
northeastward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected
through Friday. Leslie is then forecast to slow down and turn toward
the east or east-southeast by Saturday. On the forecast track,
Leslie will pass near Madeira Island by late Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and Leslie
could transition into a post-tropical low by Sunday or Sunday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 75 miles (120 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Madeira Island
beginning early Saturday.

RAINFALL: Leslie is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 4 inches across Madeira Island through Sunday. This could
lead to flash flooding and mudslides in mountainous terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Leslie will likely affect portions of
the Azores, Madeira Island and the Canary Islands through Saturday
and could reach the Atlantic coasts of Spain, Portugal, and Morocco
over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

2018-10-12 09:32

WTNT43 KNHC 120911
TCDAT3

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 64
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 AM AST Fri Oct 12 2018

Leslie has changed little in organization since the last advisory.
The eye is currently not apparent in conventional satellite imagery,
although recent microwave overpasses indicate at least a partial
eyewall is present under the overcast. Satellite intensity
estimates have changed little, so the initial intensity is held at
80 kt.

The initial motion is now 065/24. The guidance is in good
agreement that this general motion should continue for 24 h or so.
After that, there is a major model divergence. The GFS, ECMWF, and
the various consensus models now show a continued east-northeast
motion until landfall in Portugal or Spain. On the other hand, the
UKMET, UK ensemble mean, and Canadian models show a turn toward the
south and then back to the west. Since the previous forecast showed
a southward and westward turn, the new forecast track will also
follow this scenario. However, it is shifted well to the east of
the previous track due to the forecasts of the other models.
Needless to say, the latter portion of the track forecast is low
confidence.

Leslie should gradually weaken as it approaches Madeira Island
during the next 24-36 h. After that, the intensity forecast is
dependent on what track the cyclone takes. If it follows the
GFS/ECMWF scenario, the system would likely make landfall on the
Iberian peninsula and quickly dissipate. If it follows the UKMET
scenario, a combination of shear, cool water, and dry air
entrainment should cause weakening. Since the track forecast is
closer to the UKMET scenario, the intensity forecast follows the
previous forecast in having Leslie decay to a post-tropical low by
72 h. However, this is also a low confidence forecast due to the
uncertainties in the track forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 31.9N 31.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 33.1N 26.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 34.2N 20.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 34.6N 15.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 34.0N 13.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 32.0N 12.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/0600Z 30.0N 13.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 17/0600Z 28.0N 18.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-10-12 09:32

WTNT33 KNHC 120855
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 64
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 AM AST Fri Oct 12 2018

...LESLIE MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 31.0W
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Madeira Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located
near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 31.0 West. Leslie is moving
toward the east-northeast near 28 mph (44 km/h). A continued
east-northeast motion with an increase in forward speed is expected
through Friday. Leslie is forecast to slow down and turn toward the
east or east-southeast by Saturday. On the forecast track, Leslie
will pass near Madeira Island by late Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and Leslie
could transition into a post-tropical low by Sunday or Sunday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 75 miles (120 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Madeira Island
beginning early Saturday.

RAINFALL: Leslie is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 4 inches across Madeira Island through Sunday. This could
lead to flash flooding and mudslides in mountainous terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Leslie will likely affect portions of
the Azores, Madeira Island and the Canary Islands through Saturday
and could reach the Atlantic coasts of Spain, Portugal, and Morocco
over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-10-12 09:32

WTNT23 KNHC 120855
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 64
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
0900 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MADEIRA ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 31.0W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 24 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 65SE 65SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 100SE 100SW 50NW.
34 KT.......140NE 180SE 160SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 420SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 31.0W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 32.5W

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 33.1N 26.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 90SE 90SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 170SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 34.2N 20.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 70SE 80SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 150SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 34.6N 15.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 60SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 140SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 34.0N 13.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 32.0N 12.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 30.0N 13.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 28.0N 18.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 31.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-10-12 06:32

WTNT33 KNHC 120546
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Intermediate Advisory Number 63A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
200 AM AST Fri Oct 12 2018

...LESLIE MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.4N 32.4W
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM SW OF THE AZORES
ABOUT 895 MI...1440 KM W OF MADEIRA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Madeira Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located
near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 32.4 West. Leslie is moving
toward the east-northeast near 26 mph (43 km/h). A continued
east-northeast motion with an increase in forward speed is expected
through Friday. Leslie is forecast to slow down and turn toward the
east or east-southeast by Saturday. On the forecast track, Leslie
will pass near Madeira Island by late Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast during the next 72 hours,
and Leslie could transition into a post-tropical low by Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 75 miles (120 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Madeira Island
beginning early Saturday.

RAINFALL: Leslie is expected to produce storm total accumulations
of 3 to 6 inches across Madeira Island through Sunday. This could
lead to flash flooding and landslides over mountainous terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Leslie will likely affect portions of
the Azores, Madeira Island and the Canary Islands through Saturday
and could reach the Atlantic coasts of Spain, Portugal, and Morocco
over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-10-12 03:32

WTNT43 KNHC 120242
TCDAT3

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 63
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 PM AST Thu Oct 11 2018

Satellite images indicate that Leslie has continued to strengthen.
A small eye has occasionally been apparent, although it has
recently become obscured by clouds. ASCAT data showed peak winds
of 75 kt earlier, and given the low bias of that instrument at those
wind speeds, the initial wind speed is set to 80 kt. Leslie should
begin to weaken in about 24 hours as the hurricane encounters cool
waters and a higher-shear environment. Intensity guidance is
tightly clustered around the previous NHC prediction, and little
change is made in the new advisory. By 72 hours, a combination of
very dry air aloft, waters near 23.5C, and high shear should cause
Leslie to lose convection and transition into a post-tropical
cyclone.

Leslie continues to accelerate east-northeastward with an initial
motion estimate of 070/23 kt. The hurricane should move rapidly
in that general direction for the next day or so ahead of a
mid-latitude trough, then bend eastward and southward as the main
steering mechanism switches to the eastern Atlantic subtropical
ridge. There is still a large guidance spread, over 700 miles at
day 3, but the main change to report is that more of the models are
continuing the east-northeastward track longer, possibly due to
Leslie becoming a stronger system. The official forecast is
shifted to the east, but is still well to the southwest of the
model consensus, ironically similar to last night's forecast.

Leslie is a fairly large tropical cyclone and the forecast wind
radii encompass Madeira Island within 36 hours. Consequently, a
tropical storm warning has been issued for that island. It is the
first known tropical storm warning for that place, and there are
no known tropical storms in the historical record anywhere
within 100 miles of that island, with the closest being Vince of
2005.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 30.9N 33.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 32.1N 29.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 33.3N 23.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 34.0N 18.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 33.5N 15.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 31.5N 15.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 16/0000Z 29.0N 18.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 17/0000Z 28.0N 24.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-10-12 03:32

WTNT33 KNHC 120242
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 63
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 PM AST Thu Oct 11 2018

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR MADEIRA ISLAND DUE TO LESLIE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 33.9W
ABOUT 630 MI...1010 KM SW OF THE AZORES
ABOUT 985 MI...1590 KM WSW OF MADEIRA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Portugal has changed the Tropical Storm Watch to
a Tropical Storm Warning for Madeira Island.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Madeira Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was
located near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 33.9 West. Leslie is
moving toward the east-northeast near 26 mph (43 km/h). A continued
east-northeast motion with an increase in forward speed is expected
through Friday. Leslie is forecast to slow down and turn toward the
east or east-southeast by Saturday. On the forecast track, Leslie
will pass near Madeira Island by late Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast during the
next 72 hours, and Leslie could transition into a post-tropical low
by Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 75 miles (120 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Madeira Island
beginning early Saturday.

RAINFALL: Leslie is expected to produce storm total accumulations
of 3 to 6 inches across Madeira Island through Sunday. This could
lead to flash flooding and landslides over mountainous terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Leslie will likely affect portions of
the Azores, Madeira Island and the Canary Islands through Saturday
and could reach the Atlantic coasts of Spain, Portugal, and Morocco
over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-10-12 03:32

WTNT23 KNHC 120241
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 63
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
0300 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF PORTUGAL HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MADEIRA ISLAND.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MADEIRA ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 33.9W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 23 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 65SE 65SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 100SE 100SW 50NW.
34 KT.......140NE 180SE 160SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 420SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 33.9W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 35.2W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 32.1N 29.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 90SE 90SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 170SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 33.3N 23.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 70SE 80SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 150SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 34.0N 18.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 60SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 140SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 33.5N 15.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 40SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 31.5N 15.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 29.0N 18.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 28.0N 24.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.9N 33.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-10-12 00:32

WTNT33 KNHC 112348
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Intermediate Advisory Number 62A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
800 PM AST Thu Oct 11 2018

...LESLIE MOVING QUICKLY EAST-NORTHEAST WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE
AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 35.3W
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM SW OF THE AZORES
ABOUT 1080 MI...1735 KM WSW OF MADEIRA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Madeira Island

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located
near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 35.3 West. Leslie is moving
toward the east-northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h). A continued
east-northeast motion with an increase in forward speed is expected
through Friday. Leslie is forecast to slow down and turn toward the
east or east-southeast by Saturday. On the forecast track, Leslie
will pass near Madeira Island by late Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible tonight and
early Friday, but steady weakening is forecast to begin by Friday
night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240
miles (390 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Madeira Island
beginning Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Leslie will likely affect portions of
the Azores, Madeira Island and the Canary Islands through Saturday
and could reach the Atlantic coasts of Spain, Portugal, and Morocco
over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-10-11 21:33

WTNT43 KNHC 112048
TCDAT3

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 62
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 PM AST Thu Oct 11 2018

Leslie's inner-core structure has improved a little during the day
today. A ragged banding eye was present in visible imagery until
sunset, though this feature is not apparent in IR imagery. Recent
satellite intensity estimates range from 65 kt to 90 kt, so Leslie's
intensity has been raised to 75 kt as a compromise of all available
estimates.

Leslie continues to accelerate east-northeastward with an initial
motion estimate of 065/18 kt. Confidence remains high that Leslie
will continue gaining speed on that heading for the next 24 h or
so. Beyond that time, the ensemble spread is still very high,
though the 12Z deterministic global models are generally in
agreement that Leslie will separate from a mid-level trough, slow
down, and turn southward over the weekend. While the exact timing of
this turn is still highly uncertain, the multi-model consensus
brings Leslie near Madeira Island on Saturday as a tropical storm.
The new official forecast shows a very similar track, and the
government of Portugal has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for that
island. While the exact path of Leslie is still uncertain, the
cyclone is still expected to produce tropical storm conditions over
a wide area through Saturday, and interests on Madeira should not
focus on the exact track of Leslie.

No large changes in intensity are anticipated during the next 24 h,
though some fluctuations are possible, up or down. By 36 h, Leslie
will reach much cooler waters and encounter an increase in wind
shear which should lead to steady weakening. The intensity guidance
is in surprisingly good agreement given the continued large track
spread, and the NHC intensity forecast is near the middle of the
guidance envelope from 36 h onward. By 96 h, odds are increasing
that Leslie could lose all of its convection and become
post-tropical, though this possibility still depends heavily on
Leslie following a track similar to the NHC official forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 29.9N 36.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 31.0N 33.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 32.5N 27.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 33.3N 21.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 33.1N 17.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 30.9N 16.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 29.0N 18.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 16/1800Z 28.0N 24.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-10-11 21:33

WTNT33 KNHC 112047
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 62
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 PM AST Thu Oct 11 2018

...LESLIE MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 36.5W
ABOUT 780 MI...1255 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Portugal has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Madeira Island.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Madeira Island

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located
near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 36.5 West. Leslie is moving
toward the east-northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h). A continued
east-northeast motion with an increase in forward speed is expected
through Friday. Leslie is forecast to slow down and turn toward the
east or east-southeast by Saturday. On the forecast track, Leslie
will pass near Madeira Island by late Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
tonight and early Friday, but steady weakening is forecast to begin
by Friday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles
(390 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Madeira Island
beginning Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Leslie will likely affect portions of
the Azores, Madeira Island and the Canary Islands through Saturday
and could reach the Atlantic coasts of Spain, Portugal, and Morocco
over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-10-11 21:33

WTNT23 KNHC 112047
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 62
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
2100 UTC THU OCT 11 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF PORTUGAL HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
MADEIRA ISLAND.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MADEIRA ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 36.5W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 25SE 25SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT.......140NE 160SE 160SW 210NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 330SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 36.5W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 37.5W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 31.0N 33.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 25SE 25SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 32.5N 27.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 33.3N 21.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 140SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 33.1N 17.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 110SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 30.9N 16.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 29.0N 18.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 28.0N 24.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.9N 36.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-10-11 15:35

WTNT43 KNHC 111444
TCDAT3

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 61
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 11 2018

Leslie's structure has remained steady since last night. The
hurricane has a ragged banding eye surrounded by a somewhat patchy
central dense overcast. Recent Dvorak classifications from TAFB
and SAB are unchanged, and still support an initial intensity of
70 kt.

For days now, it has been clear that Leslie will accelerate
east-northeastward on the south side of a mid-latitude trough
moving across the North Atlantic. That acceleration is well underway
now, and the initial motion estimate is 060/14 kt. It has been
unclear, however, when (or if) Leslie could separate from this
trough and begin to drift southward over the eastern Atlantic. The
model spread has remarkably increased since yesterday, and nearly
1/3 of the members of the most recent GFS and ECMWF ensemble runs no
longer forecast Leslie to separate from the trough at all, instead
showing the cyclone approaching western Europe as an extratropical
low. Even the deterministic model spread has increased, and the
two NOAA regional hurricane models, the HWRF and HMON, are nearly
2300 miles apart at day 5. Through 48 h, the official track forecast
is very similar to the previous advisory, but it has been adjusted
eastward beyond that time, to bring it closer to the most recent
deterministic multi-model consensus. Confidence in the track
forecast is not high at 72 h and beyond, and it's possible that
large changes could still be required to future advisories.

Leslie should remain in a generally favorable environment for
strengthening during the next 24-36 h, and slight intensification
is still expected, though the official intensity forecast is now on
the high side of the guidance through this period. By 48 h and
onward, Leslie will be moving into a far more stable environment
and over cooler waters, so steady weakening is anticipated. If
Leslie follows a track similar to the NHC forecast, it will likely
become a weak post-tropical low within 96 h. However, if Leslie
undergoes extratropical transition, its worth noting that the
maximum winds associated with the cyclone would likely be higher
than indicated here.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 29.1N 38.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 30.3N 35.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 31.7N 30.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 32.8N 24.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 33.2N 20.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 31.3N 17.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 29.1N 19.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 16/1200Z 27.5N 24.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-10-11 15:35

WTNT33 KNHC 111443
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 61
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 11 2018

...LESLIE ACCELERATING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 38.3W
ABOUT 895 MI...1440 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was
located near latitude 29.1 North, longitude 38.3 West. Leslie is
moving toward the east-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this
general motion with some increase in forward speed could begin by
late Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours, but weakening is expected over the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles
(390 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-10-11 15:35

WTNT23 KNHC 111443
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 61
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
1500 UTC THU OCT 11 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 38.3W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 25SE 25SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT.......140NE 160SE 160SW 210NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 330SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 38.3W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 39.3W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 30.3N 35.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 25SE 25SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 31.7N 30.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 32.8N 24.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 160SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 33.2N 20.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 31.3N 17.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 29.1N 19.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 27.5N 24.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.1N 38.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-10-11 09:32

WTNT43 KNHC 110849
TCDAT3

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 60
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 AM AST Thu Oct 11 2018

The cloud pattern of Leslie has not changed significantly
overnight. The hurricane has a large and ragged eye with deep
convection most organized on its east side. The Dvorak CI-numbers
are unchanged at 4.0/65 kt from TAFB and 4.5/77 kt from SAB, and
based on these data, the initial intensity is held at 70 kt.

Leslie will remain in low wind shear conditions and over relatively
warm waters for another day or two, so little change in strength is
expected during that time. Thereafter, the hurricane is forecast
to move over waters as cool as 24 deg C and into an atmospheric
environment of stronger shear and drier air. All of these
conditions point to a weakening trend, which is likely to begin by
the weekend. Most of the guidance shows a cold front approaching
Leslie, but not quite merging with it so extratropical transition is
not expected. However, it seems likely that Leslie will lose its
convection and become a weaker post-tropical low in about 4 days.
This scenario is supported by the latest runs of the GFS, ECMWF, and
HWRF models.

Leslie has made the expected east-northeastward turn with the latest
initial motion estimated to be 065/9. This east-northeastward motion
with an increase in forward speed is forecast to continue for the
next 2 days while the steering pattern holds. After that time,
however, it becomes much less clear. The models continue to
struggle and keep changing their tune cycle to cycle on whether or
not Leslie continues east-northeastward toward Morocco or Portugal,
or gets left behind and moves west-southwestward due to a building
ridge. The ensemble members of both the GFS and ECMWF favor the
left behind (or southwestward) solution, and the NHC track forecast
continues to lean in that direction. This forecast does show Leslie
moving farther east before it makes the southwestward turn to be in
better agreement with the latest consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 28.4N 40.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 29.3N 37.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 30.9N 33.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 32.1N 27.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 32.7N 22.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 31.3N 18.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 15/0600Z 29.0N 19.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 16/0600Z 27.5N 24.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-10-11 09:32

WTNT33 KNHC 110848
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 60
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 AM AST Thu Oct 11 2018

...LESLIE EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE FOR COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 40.1W
ABOUT 1005 MI...1615 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located
near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 40.1 West. Leslie is moving
toward the east-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general
motion with some increase in forward speed is expected during
the next couple of days. A slower southeastward motion is forecast
to begin by late Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours, but weakening is expected over the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles
(390 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-10-11 09:32

WTNT23 KNHC 110848
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 60
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
0900 UTC THU OCT 11 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 40.1W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 20SE 25SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 130SE 130SW 210NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 360SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 40.1W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 40.7W

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.3N 37.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 20SE 25SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 140SE 140SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 30.9N 33.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 150SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 32.1N 27.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 32.7N 22.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 31.3N 18.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 150SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 29.0N 19.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 27.5N 24.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.4N 40.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-10-11 03:40

WTNT43 KNHC 110249
TCDAT3

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 59
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 PM AST Wed Oct 10 2018

The overall cloud pattern of Leslie has become somewhat better
organized over the past several hours with increasing convection
in the central dense overcast and tighter banding features. A blend
of the subjective Dvorak and microwave estimates suggest an initial
wind speed of 70 kt for this advisory.

Satellite fixes indicate that Leslie has turned toward the east-
northeast and is moving faster at about 10 kt. The track forecast
really hinges on whether Leslie gets accelerated in southwesterly
flow ahead of an eastern Atlantic trough or gets dropped by that
trough and turns southwestward around a new subtropical ridge.
Sadly, the forecast agreement from the previous advisory has
disintegrated, with all of the GFS-based guidance now indicating a
track more toward Europe, while the ECMWF/UKMET send Leslie in the
exact opposite direction toward the east-central Atlantic. I
clearly drew the small straw in having to make Leslie's forecast
tonight because this situation is resulting in one of the largest
guidance spreads I have seen, about 1000 miles on day 3 and over
2000 miles at day 5. Furthermore, the corrected-consensus guidance
is closer to the GFS guidance, which is way to the northeast of the
previous forecast. The new forecast will somewhat reflect the
latest guidance, showing an adjustment to the east, but is still
hundreds of miles to the southwest of the latest model consensus.
Obviously this is a zero-confidence forecast tonight.

Marginally warm waters and moderate shear could support additional
strengthening of Leslie during the next day or two, although the
guidance is generally lower than yesterday. By Saturday, colder
ocean waters, higher shear and a drier mid-level atmosphere should
cause Leslie to weaken. No significant changes were made to the
previous intensity forecast. By Monday, Leslie, whether it follows
the forecast track or not, will likely be struggling to produce
convection or have already transitioned into an extratropical low.
Thus the 5 day point shows post-tropical status, perhaps
optimistically, but this seems like the most likely option for now.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 27.9N 41.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 28.4N 39.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 29.9N 35.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 31.3N 30.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 32.3N 25.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 14/0000Z 32.0N 20.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 15/0000Z 29.5N 20.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 16/0000Z 27.5N 25.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-10-11 03:40

WTNT33 KNHC 110248
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 59
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 PM AST Wed Oct 10 2018

...LESLIE STRENGTHENS WHILE IT TURNS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 41.1W
ABOUT 1070 MI...1725 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was
located near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 41.1 West. Leslie is
moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). This
general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over
the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the
next 48 hours, with weakening forecast over the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles
(390 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-10-11 03:40

WTNT23 KNHC 110248
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 59
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
0300 UTC THU OCT 11 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 41.1W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 20SE 25SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 130SE 130SW 210NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 360SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 41.1W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 41.6W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 28.4N 39.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 20SE 25SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 140SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 29.9N 35.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 150SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 31.3N 30.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE 160SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 32.3N 25.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 160SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 32.0N 20.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 150SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 29.5N 20.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 27.5N 25.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.9N 41.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-10-10 21:33

WTNT43 KNHC 102042
TCDAT3

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 58
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 PM AST Wed Oct 10 2018

Leslie has held nearly steady since this morning. Recent microwave
data indicate that the cyclone still has a fairly well-defined
inner-core that has persisted, though the deepest convection has
fluctuated since last night. Satellite intensity estimates have
fluctuated with the convection, but still support an initial value
of 65 kt for this advisory. The last few IR and visible images
before sunset suggest that Leslie may be developing a banding eye,
and it's possible the intensity estimate is a little conservative.

The track uncertainty is hopefully beginning to decrease a little.
The most recent GFS and ECMWF ensembles are converging on a solution
where Leslie accelerates east-northeastward on the south side of a
mid-latitude trough, before separating from the trough over the
weekend. The cyclone could then turn southward, and eventually back
westward as a much weaker tropical cyclone or remnant low. This is
generally consistent with previous NHC forecasts, so no large
changes were required to the NHC forecast which is heavily based on
the HFIP Corrected Consensus.

Leslie is still expected to strengthen soon, and there has been no
significant change to the intensity forecast. By 72 h, if not
sooner, the hurricane will begin to encounter colder ocean waters
and high shear, which should cause it to weaken. If Leslie follows
the forecast track, it is possible that the system could become a
post-tropical remnant low by early next week, and this is forecast
by some of the global models. However, this is not explicitly shown
in the NHC forecast and Leslie's strength and status early next week
will likely heavily depend on its track at that time. The official
forecast is close to the intensity consensus at all forecast hours,
and the intensity model spread is not very large.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 27.8N 41.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 28.0N 40.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 29.0N 38.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 30.4N 33.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 31.5N 28.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 32.0N 21.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 14/1800Z 30.0N 21.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 15/1800Z 27.0N 26.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-10-10 21:33

WTNT33 KNHC 102040
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 58
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 PM AST Wed Oct 10 2018

...LESLIE LIKELY TO ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 41.9W
ABOUT 1110 MI...1790 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located
near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 41.9 West. Leslie is moving
toward the east near 6 mph (9 km/h). A faster motion toward the
east-northeast will likely begin by tomorrow, and this general
motion should continue through the early weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next day or two,
but weakening should begin by Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles
(445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-10-10 21:33

WTNT23 KNHC 102040
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 58
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
2100 UTC WED OCT 10 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 41.9W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 130SE 130SW 240NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 240SE 360SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 41.9W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 42.2W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 28.0N 40.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 20SE 25SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 130SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.0N 38.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 150SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 30.4N 33.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE 160SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 31.5N 28.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 80SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE 160SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 32.0N 21.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 30.0N 21.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 27.0N 26.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.8N 41.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-10-10 15:43

WTNT43 KNHC 101446
TCDAT3

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 57
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 10 2018

Leslie has continued to get better organized this morning, and
several recent microwave overpasses indicate that the hurricane is
maintaining a well-defined mid-level eye. However, objective and
subjective intensity estimates have not increased, so the intensity
has been held at 65 kt. All of the intensity guidance forecasts
that Leslie will resume intensifying later today. Given that the
hurricane is located in a low shear environment and crossing over
the warmest waters it has encountered in days, this seems very
likely. No change was made to the intensity forecast through 48 h.
Beyond that time, the intensity forecast is still tied to the track
forecast, and the farther south and west Leslie remains, the
stronger it will likely be. Extratropical transition also can not
be ruled out, which would likely result in a higher intensity by day
5 that indicated by the NHC forecast. The official intensity
forecast is still close to the model consensus through day 5, but a
large range of possibilities exists by that time, from Leslie
becoming a weak post-tropical low, to maintaining near hurricane
strength.

The spread in the track guidance is still very large and confidence
in the track forecast is low. The most recent ECMWF ensemble has a
5-day spread of over 1500 n mi, while the 5-day GFS ensemble spread
is over 1300 n mi. Leslie is forecast to slow down today and turn
toward the east-northeast. A faster motion in that direction is
anticipated by tomorrow as a mid-latitude trough approaches from
the northwest. Leslie will then either undergo extratropical
transition and lift northward, continue westward and become a
remnant low, or separate from the trough and turn back west. The
NHC forecast is near the track consensus at all times and no large
changes to the forecast were made since the future track of the
cyclone has not become more clear.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 27.8N 42.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 27.8N 41.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 28.4N 39.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 29.6N 36.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 30.7N 31.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 31.5N 23.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 29.5N 22.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 15/1200Z 27.0N 26.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-10-10 15:43

WTNT33 KNHC 101445
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 57
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 10 2018

...LESLIE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 42.3W
ABOUT 1130 MI...1820 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 150 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was
located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 42.3 West. Leslie is
moving toward the south-southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slow
turn toward the east-northeast is expected today, followed by a
faster east-northeast motion from tomorrow through the early
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next day or two,
but weakening should begin by Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles
(445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-10-10 15:43

WTNT23 KNHC 101444
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 57
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
1500 UTC WED OCT 10 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 42.3W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 150 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......130NE 90SE 120SW 240NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 270SE 240SW 540NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 42.3W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 42.5W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 27.8N 41.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 20SE 25SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 130SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 28.4N 39.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 29.6N 36.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 30.7N 31.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 80SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 31.5N 23.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 29.5N 22.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 27.0N 26.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.8N 42.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-10-10 09:33

WTNT43 KNHC 100834
TCDAT3

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 56
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 AM AST Wed Oct 10 2018

Geostationary satellite and microwave images indicate that Leslie
has a large and ragged banded eye feature with deep convection most
organized over the northern semicircle. Since the Dvorak
classifications from TAFB and SAB are unchanged at 4.0/65 kt, the
initial wind speed is held at that value. Leslie has another day or
two to strengthen while it remains in low wind shear conditions and
over marginally warm waters. After that time, an increase in shear
and lower SSTs should cause Leslie to weaken. It is possible that
Leslie could become a post-tropical cyclone by day 5, but confidence
is not high on that occurring. The NHC intensity forecast is
largely an update of the previous one and it lies at the high end of
the model guidance.

Leslie is now moving southward at 9 kt in the flow on the southwest
side of a broad mid- to upper-level trough. A slower south-
southeastward motion is expected during the day today as the
trough pulls away. A turn to the east-northeast is expected tonight
as another trough approaches Leslie from the northwest, and that
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through early
this weekend. After that time, the models are coming into better
agreement in showing Leslie being left behind and moving
southwestward on Sunday and Monday as a ridge builds to its
northwest. The NHC track forecast is adjusted southward at days 3
to 5 to be closer to the latest consensus aids. Although the
deterministic models are in better agreement this cycle, there is
still a lot of spread in the GFS and ECMWF ensemble members and
confidence in the track forecast remains fairly low.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 28.6N 42.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 28.0N 42.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 28.1N 40.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 29.1N 38.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 30.5N 34.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 31.5N 25.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 30.5N 21.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 15/0600Z 28.5N 23.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-10-10 09:33

WTNT33 KNHC 100833
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 56
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 AM AST Wed Oct 10 2018

...LESLIE NOW MOVING SOUTHWARD...
...FORECAST TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 42.6W
ABOUT 1105 MI...1780 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 175 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located
near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 42.6 West. Leslie is moving
toward the south near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slower south-
southeastward motion is expected today, followed by a east-
northeastward motion tonight through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next day or two,
but weakening should begin by Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles
(445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-10-10 09:33

WTNT23 KNHC 100832
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 56
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
0900 UTC WED OCT 10 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 42.6W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 175 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......130NE 90SE 120SW 240NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 210SE 240SW 540NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 42.6W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 42.7W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 28.0N 42.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 20SE 25SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 130SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 28.1N 40.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.1N 38.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 130SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 30.5N 34.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 160SE 140SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 31.5N 25.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 140SE 130SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 30.5N 21.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 28.5N 23.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.6N 42.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-10-10 03:32

WTNT43 KNHC 100243
TCDAT3

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 55
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 PM AST Tue Oct 09 2018

Satellite and microwave data indicate that Leslie has become a
hurricane again, almost exactly a week after it did the first time.
A WindSat pass from earlier today showed the development of an eye
feature, and with the Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB at
hurricane strength, the initial wind speed is set to 65 kt. The
latest GOES-16 proxy visible imagery suggests that a ragged eye has
formed, although the eyewall is open on the southwestern side.

Leslie is atypically intensifying while moving south-southeastward
at 8 kt. The hurricane should continue to lose latitude for a day
or so then get accelerated east-northeastward by a mid-latitude
trough until Friday. After that time, there is a ginormous spread
in the model ensembles with Leslie's final destination ranging from
Ireland all the way to missing the trough and turning around to the
southwest due to a building eastern Atlantic subtropical ridge.
Compared to 12 hours ago, more of the ensemble members are showing
Leslie getting left behind, which is also reflected in the latest
deterministic runs as well. Something tells me that Leslie has at
least one more trick up its sleeve, so the official forecast shows
this trend, but is very low confidence.

With fairly low shear and marginally warm waters for the next day
or two, there is no reason to expect that Leslie won't continue to
intensify. Model guidance is higher than the last cycle, with the
normally conservative ECMWF and GFS models even suggesting that
Leslie becomes a category 2 hurricane in a couple of days. Most of
the rest of the guidance is lower than those models, but the
intensity forecast is shaded in the direction of the ECMWF/GFS,
and is higher than the last NHC prediction. After that time, an
increase in shear and lower SSTs should cause Leslie to weaken. It
is even possible it will become a post-tropical cyclone by day 5,
but I'm not going to show that at this time since I was too
premature last night in this transition.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 29.5N 42.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 28.4N 42.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 28.0N 41.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 28.6N 39.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 29.9N 36.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 32.2N 27.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 14/0000Z 32.0N 21.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 15/0000Z 30.0N 22.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-10-10 03:32

WTNT33 KNHC 100239
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 55
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 PM AST Tue Oct 09 2018

...EVERLASTING LESLIE BECOMES A HURRICANE AGAIN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 42.6W
ABOUT 1070 MI...1720 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 160 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was
located near latitude 29.5 North, longitude 42.6 West. Leslie is
moving toward the south-southeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. A
slower motion and a turn toward the east-northeast or northeast is
expected by Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next
48 hours before weakening is anticipated by the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles
(500 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-10-10 03:32

WTNT23 KNHC 100238
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 55
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
0300 UTC WED OCT 10 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 42.6W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 160 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 120SW 270NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 210SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 42.6W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 42.7W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.4N 42.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 20SE 25SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 130SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 28.0N 41.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 28.6N 39.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 29.9N 36.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 160SE 130SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 32.2N 27.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 160SE 150SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 32.0N 21.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 30.0N 22.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.5N 42.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-10-09 21:31

WTNT43 KNHC 092041
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 54
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 PM AST Tue Oct 09 2018

Leslie's appearance on visible imagery has improved through the
afternoon, and multiple microwave overpasses show the development of
a small mid-level eye. The intensity has been increased to 60 kt
based on an average of the most recent Dvorak classifications from
TAFB and SAB. Leslie is moving over warmer waters and the wind
shear is expected to be low, so additional strengthening is
anticipated and Leslie is forecast to become a hurricane overnight.
Given the relatively favorable environment and the recent
organization of Leslie's inner-core, it is possible that Leslie
could intensify a little faster than currently indicated by the NHC
forecast. Beyond day 2, there is particularly low confidence in the
intensity forecast since the track of Leslie is highly uncertain,
and the NHC forecast essentially follows the intensity consensus. It
is likely that the farther south and west Leslie remains, the
stronger it will be.

Unfortunately the track forecast has not become any clearer.
Recent GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts still indicate that a range
of possibilities exist, from Leslie becoming extratropical and
heading toward the extreme northeast Atlantic, to Leslie turning
back west in a few days and persisting as a tropical cyclone. No
large changes were made to the track forecast at this time, since I
see no reason to commit to a new solution at this time. The NHC
forecast is close to HCCA at all forecast hours, but confidence is
low to say the least.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 30.3N 43.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 29.0N 42.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 28.0N 42.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 28.1N 41.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 29.2N 38.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 32.0N 29.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 33.0N 22.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 31.0N 20.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-10-09 21:31

WTNT33 KNHC 092040
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 54
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 PM AST Tue Oct 09 2018

...LESLIE NEARS HURRICANE STRENGTH AGAIN...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 43.0W
ABOUT 1055 MI...1700 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 155 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 43.0 West. Leslie is
moving toward the south-southeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. A
slower motion and a turn toward the east-northeast or northeast is
expected by Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
the next couple of days and Leslie will likely become a hurricane
tonight or tomorrow.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-10-09 21:31

WTNT23 KNHC 092039
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 54
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
2100 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 43.0W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 155 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 180SW 270NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 180SE 480SW 540NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 43.0W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 43.1W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 29.0N 42.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 0SE 25SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 130SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 28.0N 42.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 20SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 28.1N 41.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 20SE 25SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.2N 38.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 160SE 130SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 32.0N 29.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 160SE 150SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 33.0N 22.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 31.0N 20.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.3N 43.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-10-09 15:31

WTNT43 KNHC 091440
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 53
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 09 2018

Recent Dvorak fixes and ASCAT data indicate that Leslie's maximum
winds remain around 55 kt. Although the winds have not yet
increased, the surface center of the tropical storm has become more
embedded within its cold cloud tops and several recent microwave
overpasses indicate that the cyclone is beginning to establish an
inner-core. Strengthening is therefore still expected, and Leslie is
forecast to become a hurricane by tomorrow. The tropical storm is
currently moving south-southeastward at around 11 kt, and the models
are in good agreement that a south-southeastward to southward motion
will continue for the next 24 h or so.

Beginning around 36 h, both the track and intensity forecasts become
very uncertain. In general, most of the global models and their
ensembles indicate that Leslie will begin to accelerate toward the
east-northeast or northeast by Thursday as a mid-latitude trough
approaches from the northwest, however the timing and extent of the
interaction is still highly variable from model to model. Based on
the GFS and ECMWF ensembles, a range of possibilities exists, from
Leslie essentially merging with this trough and becoming
extratropical over the far northeast Atlantic, to Leslie interacting
with the trough very little and continuing to meander over the
central Atlantic. There has been a significant change in the
consensus aids to show a slower track for Leslie based on recent
shifts in the deterministic models, but the NHC track forecast has
not been changed nearly as much, out of respect for continuity and
the high uncertainty in the forecast.

The low confidence in the track forecast beyond 36 h affects the
intensity forecast as well, since it is unclear what environment the
storm will be located within. The intensity forecast is therefore
held near the intensity consensus, and still calls for steady
strengthening during the next several days, followed by weakening by
the end of the forecast period. If Leslie moves as far east as
shown in the NHC track forecast, it would likely become a post-
tropical low by day 5, as shown explicitly in the forecast. However,
until confidence in the track increases, I can't rule out that
Leslie could remain a tropical cyclone almost indefinitely if it
continues meandering over the northern Atlantic.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 31.3N 43.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 29.9N 42.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 28.5N 42.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 28.1N 41.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 28.9N 39.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 32.0N 31.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 33.5N 22.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 14/1200Z 33.5N 18.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-10-09 15:31

WTNT33 KNHC 091439
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 53
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 09 2018

...LESLIE HEADING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.3N 43.5W
ABOUT 1045 MI...1680 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 150 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 31.3 North, longitude 43.5 West. Leslie is
moving toward the south-southeast near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. A
slower motion and a turn toward the east-northeast or northeast is
expected by Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is anticipated, and Leslie is forecast
to become a hurricane again on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-10-09 15:31

WTNT23 KNHC 091438
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 53
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
1500 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 43.5W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 150 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 150SE 150SW 270NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 450SW 540NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 43.5W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 43.7W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 29.9N 42.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 230NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.5N 42.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 110SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 28.1N 41.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 28.9N 39.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 140SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 32.0N 31.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 170SE 150SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 33.5N 22.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 33.5N 18.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.3N 43.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-10-09 09:31

WTNT43 KNHC 090857
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 52
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 AM AST Tue Oct 09 2018

Leslie has been steady state overnight. The low-level center is
estimated to be on the southern side of a persistent area of deep
convection. The satellite intensity estimates are largely
unchanged, so the initial intensity is held at 55 kt for this
advisory.

The tropical storm is moving southeastward at 11 kt steered by the
flow on the southwest side of a broad mid- to upper-level trough.
This motion, but a slower pace, is expected during the next 24 to 36
hours as the trough pulls away. After that time, another trough is
expected to dig southward over the north Atlantic, which should
cause Leslie to accelerate east-northeastward. Although the models
are in fair agreement for the next few days, they remain in in poor
agreement on whether or not the trough will continue to carry Leslie
eastward or leave the storm behind around day 5. The GFS and ECMWF
have flip flopped, with the GFS now showing Leslie meandering over
the east Atlantic by day 5 and the ECMWF moving the system eastward
toward Morocco. The ensemble spread remains large in those two
global models and there has not been much run-to-run consistency
either. The NHC track forecast remains near the various consensus
aids, which is usually a good place to be when there is considerable
uncertainty like this.

Leslie should slowly strengthen during the next few days while
it moves over slightly warmer waters and into a more moist
environment. These favorable conditions should allow Leslie to
become a hurricane once again, likely within a day or two.
Weakening is expected to commence this weekend when Leslie is
forecast to move over cooler waters and into an atmosphere of
stronger shear and drier air, and the system is forecast to become
post-tropical by day 5. However, the long range intensity forecast
is strongly linked to where Leslie will be, so since the track
forecast is uncertain, the intensity prediction is likewise.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 32.2N 43.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 30.8N 43.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 29.2N 42.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 28.1N 42.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 28.4N 40.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 31.2N 33.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 33.5N 23.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 14/0600Z 34.0N 17.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-10-09 09:31

WTNT33 KNHC 090856
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 52
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 AM AST Tue Oct 09 2018

...LESLIE FORECAST TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.2N 43.9W
ABOUT 1035 MI...1665 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 155 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 32.2 North, longitude 43.9 West. Leslie is
moving toward the south-southeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slower
motion toward the southeast is anticipated over the next day or two,
with a turn toward the east-northeast forecast on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and
Leslie could become a hurricane again on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-10-09 09:31

WTNT23 KNHC 090855
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 52
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
0900 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 43.9W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 155 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 150SE 150SW 270NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 420SW 540NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 43.9W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 44.2W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 30.8N 43.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 40SE 40SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 130SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 29.2N 42.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 110SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 28.1N 42.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 28.4N 40.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 140SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 31.2N 33.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 170SE 150SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 33.5N 23.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 34.0N 17.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.2N 43.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-10-09 07:31

WTNT43 KNHC 090240
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 51
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 PM AST Mon Oct 08 2018

Satellite and microwave data show that Leslie continues to have a
small central dense overcast, with the latest microwave images
suggesting that Leslie is forming a mid-level eye. Although deep
convection has recently decreased somewhat, all of the 00Z intensity
estimates were 55 kt or higher, so the wind speed is set to that
value.

There is no significant change in initial motion- still
southeastward at about 12 kt. Leslie should slow down and turn
toward the south-southeast during the next day or two as the cyclone
becomes steered by a mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic.
A new trough moves into the eastern Atlantic after that time, which
should eject Leslie generally east-northeastward to the south of the
Azores. Models continue to be in poor agreement on whether that
trough will accelerate Leslie quickly to the northeast at long range
or drop the cyclone to the southwest of Portugal. The recent
GFS-based guidance has generally shifted southward and is slower,
more in line with the 12Z UK/ECMWF models. The new NHC forecast
follows that trend, but is still on the northern side of the
consensus due to continuity concerns, and additional southward
adjustments could be required on later advisories.

Leslie is forecast to move across marginally warm waters within a
moderate shear but a more moist environment over the next few days.
These conditions are likely to support slow strengthening, and
model guidance is in general agreement on this scenario. Only
minor adjustments were made to the previous forecast, and the NHC
forecast remains between the intensity consensus and corrected-
consensus aids. By day 5, increasing shear and cold waters
should weaken Leslie, and it will probably lose convection to
transition into a post-tropical cyclone.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 32.9N 44.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 31.5N 43.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 29.6N 42.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 28.1N 42.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 27.9N 41.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 30.0N 35.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 33.5N 24.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 14/0000Z 35.5N 16.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-10-09 07:31

WTNT43 KNHC 082048
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 50
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 PM AST Mon Oct 08 2018

GOES-16 data indicate that Leslie has a small central dense overcast
with an inner core trying to form on the last few visible images.
Convection has also deepened somewhat, and the overall cloud pattern
is becoming more symmetric. All signs point to strengthening and
the Dvorak estimates are increasing. So for Leslie's 50th
advisory, the wind speed is raised to 50 kt, near the CIMSS ADT
value.

Leslie is moving southeastward at about 12 kt; an unusually fast
pace for this direction. The storm is forecast to slow down
somewhat and turn toward the south-southeast during the next day or
two as the cyclone separates from the mid-latitude flow temporarily
and becomes steered by a mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic.
Fortunately the ridge isn't strong enough for Leslie to move
westward again, and the models all eject Leslie northeastward
because of a deepening trough over the eastern Atlantic. There has
been a notable trend southward through 48 hours, and the official
forecast follows that idea. The forecast becomes a nightmare at
long range, however, with very little agreement on whether Leslie is
accelerated ahead of the trough, like the latest FV3GFS, or gets
left behind again, like the ECMWF. These differences result in a
1200 mile spread of the historically reliable models by day 5,
resulting in a very low confidence forecast. The bulk of the
guidance is now indicating that the left behind option is becoming
more likely, but continuity dictates making forecast changes in
smaller chunks. So the official forecast is much slower and farther
south at long range, but is well north of the latest model
consensus. Further southward adjustments could be required if model
trends continue.

Interestingly, model guidance is becoming more certain on Leslie
becoming a hurricane again as it moves over warmer (but still
marginally warm) waters, into a lighter-shear and higher mid-level
humidity enviroment. This makes some sense given that the track is
shifting southward and Leslie should finally move over a warmer
portion of the subtropical Atlantic that it hasn't touched yet. Thus
the intensity forecast is higher than the previous one, and the
corrected-consensus models even suggest category 2 as a peak
intensity is possible. By day 5, increasing shear and cooler waters
should weaken Leslie, and it could be undergoing extratropical
transition at that time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 33.8N 45.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 32.5N 44.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 30.6N 43.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 28.9N 42.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 28.2N 41.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 29.5N 37.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 33.5N 26.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 37.0N 17.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-10-09 07:31

WTNT43 KNHC 081438
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 49
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Mon Oct 08 2018

For the fourth (and hopefully final) time as a tropical or
subtropical cyclone, Leslie has crossed 48W. The convective pattern
of the tropical storm hasn't changed significantly over the past
several hours, though there is some evidence of a convective band
attempting to wrap around the western side of the storm. The
initial intensity is still 45 kt, based on a blend of the most
recent current intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS
SATCON.

There has been little change in the intensity forecast. Just about
all of the typically reliable intensity models still call for
Leslie to gradually strengthen over the next 3 days, despite
marginal SSTs. All of the dynamical models call for Leslie to
become a hurricane once again by 72 h, but SHIPS and LGEM
are a little lower. The official intensity forecast remains near
the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids, and calls for Leslie to become a
hurricane by the end of the week.

Leslie has continued to move east-southeastward, now at 12 kt, and
the global models are in good agreement that this motion will
continue through today. After that time, most of the guidance
generally shows that Leslie will separate from a mid-latitude
trough, causing the tropical storm to turn toward the southeast or
south-southeast and slow down. A day or so after that, another
mid-latitude trough will approach from the west and cause Leslie to
accelerate toward the east-northeast. The timing of Leslie's
acceleration is still very uncertain, and the model spread beyond
72 h remains very high. Until the spread decreases, I don't feel
confident making a big change to the forecast, so the official track
forecast has only been slightly tweaked to bring it closer to HCCA
and TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 34.6N 47.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 33.6N 45.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 32.0N 43.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 30.2N 42.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 29.1N 41.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 29.5N 37.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 33.0N 28.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 39.0N 18.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-10-09 07:31

WTNT43 KNHC 080846
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 48
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 AM AST Mon Oct 08 2018

There has not been a lot of change with Leslie overnight. Deep
convection is still organized in curved bands near and to the north
of the center, but there is some dry air entraining into the
western side of the circulation. A blend of the latest satellite
intensity estimates supports holding the initial intensity at 45 kt.

Leslie is over cool 24 deg C waters, but it will be headed over
slightly warmer waters during the next few days while remaining in
low wind shear conditions. Therefore, slow strengthening is
expected and most of the intensity models show Leslie reaching
hurricane strength once again within the next 3 to 4 days. By the
end of the period, cooler waters and an increase in shear could
cause some weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher
than the previous one, to trend toward the latest IVCN and HCCA
guidance.

Leslie is moving east-southeastward at 11 kt steered by the flow on
the south side of a broad mid- to upper-level trough over the north
Atlantic. An east-southeast to southeast motion is expected during
the next couple of days as the trough passes by to the north of
Leslie. After that time, another large-scale trough will approach
Leslie from the northwest and that should cause the storm to turn
east-northeastward at a faster pace in the 4 to 5 day time frame.
The models have come into a better agreement this cycle showing a
faster and more northward motion at the end of the period, and the
NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 35.2N 47.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 34.3N 46.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 32.9N 44.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 31.1N 42.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 29.6N 41.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 28.8N 38.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 31.2N 30.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 36.8N 20.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-10-09 07:31

WTNT43 KNHC 080242
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 PM AST Sun Oct 07 2018

Leslie's cloud pattern consists of a large and vigorous circulation,
but the convection is shallow at this time. Dvorak numbers only
support an initial intensity of 45 kt. Some fluctuations in
intensity are expected over the next 24 to 36 hours, while Leslie
is over fairly cool SSTs. After that time, Leslie will encounter
warmer waters, and since the shear is low, some re-intensification
is anticipated. Leslie will likely become a hurricane once again
by the end of the week as indicated by the guidance.

Leslie is still moving east-southeastward at about 11 kt. Since
Leslie is embedded within the mid-latitude westerly flow, this
general motion will likely continue for the next 2 days or so.
This is consistent with most of the track guidance, which continue
to show a southeastward motion of the cyclone during that period.
Another shortwave trough in the westerlies will bypass the cyclone,
but will modify the steering flow, and Leslie should then turn to
the east-northeast. It should be emphasized that confidence in the
track forecast remains low.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 35.7N 49.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 35.2N 47.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 33.8N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 32.0N 43.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 30.5N 41.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 28.5N 39.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 30.0N 33.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 32.0N 24.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-10-09 07:31

WTNT43 KNHC 072036
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 PM AST Sun Oct 07 2018

Late-arriving ASCAT data from shortly after 1200 UTC indicated that
Leslie is still producing winds of just below 45 kt, primarily in
the southwest and northeast quadrants of the tropical storm.
Assuming at least a little undersampling has occurred, this would
support an initial intensity of 45 or 50 kt, while an average of
more recent intensity estimates from SAB, TAFB, and the UW-CIMSS
is 50 kt. The initial value is therefore held at 50 kt.

Regardless of the exact initial intensity of Leslie, only slight
fluctuations are expected over the next 24 to 36 hours while Leslie
is over fairly cool SSTs, in part because it will be crossing its
own previous track multiple times. Beyond 48 h, the intensity
guidance is now in better agreement that some intensification
will occur, and Leslie is forecast to become a hurricane once again
by the end of the week. The NHC intensity forecast is a little
higher than the previous advisory by the end of the forecast
period, and is close to IVCN at all times.

Leslie is still moving east-southeastward with an initial speed of 9
kt, and this general motion will likely continue for at least the
next day or two while the tropical storm is steered by westerly flow
associated with a mid-latitude trough to its north. Most of the
global models still forecast that Leslie will separate from the
trough in a few days and turn southeastward, and there are still
large differences on exactly when that will occur. The deterministic
runs of the GFS and ECMWF have come into better agreement on the
future track of Leslie, but the ensembles of those models indicate
that the range of possible tracks hasn't actually decreased.
Confidence in the track forecast therefore remains quite low. In
general, the guidance suite has shifted to the south and west,
particularly between 36 and 96 h. The official track forecast has
been shifted in that direction to bring it closer to the track
consensus. However, it should be emphasized that confidence in the
track forecast remains low at this time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 35.9N 49.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 35.4N 48.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 34.3N 45.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 32.8N 43.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 31.2N 41.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 28.2N 38.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 28.6N 33.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 30.5N 27.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-10-09 07:31

WTNT43 KNHC 071449
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Sun Oct 07 2018

Despite marginal SSTs near 24 deg C, Leslie has persisted with
little change in its structure. An average of the UW-CIMSS SATCON
and current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB still supports an
initial intensity of 50 kt. Although Leslie is currently located in
a low-shear environment, GFS and ECMWF SHIPS diagnostics suggests
that mid-level humidities are fairly low, and the cyclone should
remain over marginal SSTs for the foreseeable future. All of the
intensity guidance forecasts little to no intensity change during
the next day or so. However, by 36 h, nearly all of the dynamical
models, both global and regional, forecast that Leslie will begin to
restrengthen. On the other hand, the statistical-dynamical models
do not forecast much change through day 5. The NHC forecast has
been adjusted a little higher to keep it close to the intensity
consensus, and I can't rule out that Leslie could become a hurricane
again at some point during the coming week.

No large changes were made to the NHC track forecast, but this
should not be interpreted as a sign of confidence in the forecast.
Leslie is currently moving with an initial motion of east-southeast,
or 115/9 kt. The track model spread is high from the very beginning
of the forecast, with the GFS and its associated regional models
indicating that Leslie will continue on a similar heading for the
next several days, while the ECMWF and UKMET forecast that Leslie
will slow down and turn soon turn toward the southeast or
south-southeast. The track forecast variance stems from differences
in how quickly the models show Leslie separating from a mid-level
trough to its north, if at all, and by day 5, the GFS and ECMWF
solutions vary by about 750 n mi. At this point, I don't have a good
reason to pick one solution over another, and it should be noted
that based on the ECMWF ensemble tracks, there is a whole spectrum
of possible solutions between these extremes. The NHC track forecast
therefore remains near the TVCN and GFEX aids as a course of least
regret, but significant changes could be required to future
advisories if the track of Leslie becomes more clear.

Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue through
tonight across the northeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda,
the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and Atlantic Canada. Please
consult products from your local weather office as these conditions
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 36.6N 51.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 36.2N 49.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 35.4N 47.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 34.2N 44.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 32.6N 41.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 29.1N 36.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 28.5N 31.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 30.0N 28.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-10-09 07:31

WTNT43 KNHC 070848
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 AM AST Sun Oct 07 2018

Leslie has not changed much overnight. The storm has several curved
bands to the east and north of the center, but a limited amount
of deep convection in the southwestern quadrant. The initial
intensity is held at 50 kt based on the steady state appearance
since the previous ASCAT pass. This estimate is also in fair
agreement with the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.
Leslie will likely fluctuate in strength during the next several
days, but it should remain a tropical storm through the forecast
period. Although some weakening is possible during the next day or
so due to cool 23 to 24 deg C waters, slight re-strengthening is
likely after that time when the system moves back over warmer waters
and remains in relatively low wind shear conditions. There could be
some increase in shear by the end of the forecast period, however,
which could result in slight weakening again. The models are in
fairly good agreement, and the NHC intensity forecast is close to
the IVCN and HCCA consensus models.

Leslie is moving eastward at 10 kt within the mid-latitude westerly
flow on the south side of a broad mid- to upper-level trough. This
trough is expected to amplify some, which should cause the storm to
move east-southeastward at a faster pace during the next few days.
A slight turn back to the east or east-northeast with a decrease
in forward speed is likely by the end of the forecast period when
the trough weakens. There is a significant amount of spread in
the models associated with differences on how fast they expect
Leslie to move. In fact, the GFS and ECMWF models are more than
1000 n mi apart by day 5. The NHC track forecast is a little slower
than the previous one at the end of the period to come in better
agreement with the latest consensus aids. Given the model spread,
the confidence in the long-range track forecast is low at this
time.

Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue through
tonight across the northeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda,
the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and Atlantic Canada. Please
consult products from your local weather office as these conditions
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 37.2N 52.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 36.6N 50.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 36.1N 48.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 35.1N 45.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 33.7N 42.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 30.1N 36.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 28.6N 32.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 29.5N 27.2W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-10-09 07:31

WTNT43 KNHC 070249
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 PM AST Sat Oct 06 2018

Leslie's convective organization has changed little since the
previous advisory, with a small burst of deep convection having
developed just southeast of the center. The intensity remains at 50
kt based on an average of current intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB, which is supported by a partial ASCAT pass that showed several
45-kt surface wind vectors well east of the missed low-level center.

The initial motion estimate is easterly or 095/11 kt. Leslie is
forecast to remain embedded in weak mid-latitude west-northwesterly
flow for the next few days, which should keep the cyclone moving
toward the east-southeast over warmer water. By 72 h and beyond, a
stronger shortwave trough is forecast to dig to the west of Leslie,
lifting the cyclone out toward the east and northeast. The new NHC
forecast track is similar to, but a slower than, the previous
advisory track, but not as slow as the consensus models.

Leslie is expected to weaken slightly during the next 36 h as the
cyclone entrains some drier air. After that time, however, Leslie
is expected to move over warmer waters with SSTs reaching more than
25 deg C by 48 h and beyond while the shear is forecast to remain
low. As a result, some modest re-strengthening is forecast on days
2-5. The official intensity forecast closely follows the IVCN
intensity consensus model.

Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the
next few days across the northeastern coast of the United States,
Bermuda, the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and Atlantic Canada.
Please consult products from your local weather office as these
conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 37.3N 52.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 36.8N 51.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 36.2N 48.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 35.4N 46.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 34.2N 43.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 30.9N 38.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 28.7N 33.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 29.5N 28.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-09 07:31

WTNT43 KNHC 062037
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 PM AST Sat Oct 06 2018

The central convection associated with Leslie is still well
organized and concentrated. A recent SSMIS image shows that
Leslie's inner core is better defined resembling an eyewall.
However, Dvorak estimates still support an initial intensity
intensity of 50 kt.

Leslie should weaken slightly during the next 24 to 36 h as the
cyclone crosses patches of cooler SSTs. After that time, the track
takes the center back over warmer waters, but the shear could
increase a little. Only minor adjustments are made to the previous
intensity forecast, and the NHC forecast follows very close the
model consensus which suggests slight strengthening by the end of
the forecast period.

Leslie continues to be embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies
and is moving toward the east or 100 degrees at 10 kt. These
westerlies are forecast to be modulated by the passage of short
waves, and the flow pattern will initially keep Leslie on east to
east-southeast track for most of the forecast period. By the end of
the period a turn to the northeast is anticipated. Models are not
in great agreement but they are consistently showing the eastward
progression of the cyclone. The NHC forecast is very close to the
models consensus, and is basically in the middle of the track
envelope.

Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the
next few days across the northeastern coast of the United States,
Bermuda, the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and Atlantic Canada.
Please consult products from your local weather office as these
conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 37.4N 54.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 37.1N 52.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 36.6N 50.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 35.8N 48.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 34.8N 45.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 31.5N 40.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 28.5N 35.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 28.5N 31.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven/Avila

2018-10-09 07:31

WTNT43 KNHC 061458
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 06 2018

The central convection associated with Leslie has become better
organized this morning, with conventional satellite imagery showing
a tightly curved band and recent microwave imagery showing a
mid-level eye. However, the microwave data also suggests the
mid-level eye is located to the southeast of the low-level center.
It is also not known whether there is an inner wind maximum
associated with this feature. Satellite intensity estimates are
mostly in the 45-55 kt range, so the initial intensity remains 50
kt.

The initial motion is now 080/8. Leslie is now in or near the
southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies, and with the
assistance of a couple of shortwave troughs, these are expected to
push Leslie toward the east and southeast throughout the forecast
period. Despite general agreement on the synoptic pattern, there is
now a large spread in the guidance toward the end of the forecast
period. The ECMWF and UKMET show a more southward turn after 72 h,
taking Leslie well south of 30N. The GFS, on the other hand,
shows a more eastward motion to the point where by 96 h it is 950
n mi from the UKMET forecast position. The new forecast track
compromises between these extremes and lies near the TVCN consensus,
with the caveat that the part after 72 h is of low confidence.

Leslie should weaken some during the next 48 h or so as it crosses
an area of cooler sea surface temperatures. After that, the track
takes the center back over warmer water at the same time when there
may be an increase in shear. There is an increased uncertainty in
the intensity forecast caused by the track forecast uncertainties.
If Leslie moves closer to the GFS track, it will be over cooler
water and in stronger shear, while if it moves closer to the UKMET
solution it will be over warmer water and lighter shear. Due to to
the uncertainty, only minor adjustments are made to the previous
intensity forecast. Additional adjustments may be needed later
depending on changes in the track forecast.

Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the
next few days across the northeastern coast of the United States,
Bermuda, the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and Atlantic Canada.
Please consult products from your local weather office as these
conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 37.7N 55.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 37.6N 54.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 37.3N 51.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 36.6N 49.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 35.7N 46.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 33.0N 41.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 30.0N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 29.0N 31.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-10-09 07:31

WTNT43 KNHC 060849
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 AM AST Sat Oct 06 2018

Leslie is producing a cluster of deep convection near its center of
circulation and a far-reaching band that curls around the eastern
side of the expansive circulation. The maximum winds are still
estimated to be 50 kt based on last evening's ASCAT pass. Leslie's
future intensity will largely be limited by a less-than-ideal
thermodynamic environment, with the center moving over water
temperatures of 24-25 degrees Celsius within its own cold wake
during the next 48 hours. Some weakening is anticipated during that
period, and the NHC forecast follows the intensity consensus and
HCCA guidance. After 48 hours, some restrengthening is possible
when Leslie reaches some warmer waters, although increasing
westerly shear is likely to temper the amount of intensification.

Leslie's current motion is northeastward, or 045/7 kt. The cyclone
is becoming increasingly embedded within the mid-latitude
westerlies, and these winds, with the assistance of a couple of
shortwave troughs, are expected to push Leslie toward the east and
southeast throughout the forecast period. The one notable model
anomaly is the ECMWF, which shows Leslie becoming more separated
from the mid-latitude flow and moving more slowly than shown in the
other models on days 3 through 5. Even with that model being an
outlier, the rest of the guidance has sped up a bit, pulling the
consensus aids eastward. This resulted in the new NHC track
forecast being a little faster than the previous one on days 4 and
5.

Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the
next few days across the eastern coast of the United States,
Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and Atlantic
Canada. Please consult products from your local weather office as
these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 37.2N 56.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 37.3N 55.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 37.1N 52.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 36.5N 50.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 35.7N 47.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 33.4N 42.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 30.5N 37.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 28.5N 32.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-10-09 07:31

WTNT43 KNHC 060232
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 PM AST Fri Oct 05 2018

Leslie's cloud pattern consists of a small ring of shallow to
moderate convection embedded within a large and vigorous
circulation. Dvorak classifications allow me to keep the same
intensity, and in fact, ASCAT data just came in with a few 50-kt
wind vectors. So the initial intensity remains at 50 kt in this
advisory. Leslie will not encounter any hostile shear, but the
cyclone will move over a few patches of warm and cool waters. The
guidance shows some minor fluctuations in the cyclone intensity,
most likely due to the aforementioned SST variations along the
track, and this is reflected in the NHC forecast.

Leslie is moving toward the east-northeast or 075 degrees at 6 kt.
The cyclone is already embedded in the mid-latitude westerly flow,
which is being modulated by passing shortwaves. This flow pattern
is expected to persist and should steer Leslie eastward and
east-southeastward through the next 5 days. Although the track
guidance is not as clustered as in previous days, most of the models
agree with the eastward motion of the cyclone, but vary in speed. It
appears that stubborn Leslie will be with us for several more days.

Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the
next few days across the eastern coast of the United States,
Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and Atlantic
Canada. Please consult products from your local weather office as
these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 36.6N 57.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 37.0N 56.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 37.0N 54.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 36.5N 51.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 36.0N 49.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 34.0N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 31.0N 41.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 29.0N 38.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-10-09 07:31

WTNT43 KNHC 052040
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 PM AST Fri Oct 05 2018

Leslie is currently maintaining a small central convective feature
and an outer convective band in the southeastern semicircle. The
various satellite intensity estimates have decreased a little, so
the initial intensity is nudged downward to 50 kt. This is still a
little above the estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the CIMSS satellite
consensus. While no data was available from the inner core,
scatterometer overpasses this morning suggests that Leslie has
changed little in size since last night.

Leslie has now slowed its forward motion and is starting to turn
more eastward, with an initial motion of 030/3. A turn to the east
is expected during the next 24 h, followed by a turn toward the
east-southeast by 36 h as Leslie encounters the southern edge of the
mid-latitude westerlies. A general motion toward the east-southeast
or southeast should then continue for the remainder of the forecast
period. The latest guidance again shifted southward, and the new
forecast track, which is in best agreement with the TVCN consensus
model, is shifted to the south of the previous track

The forecast track again takes Leslie over cooler waters around day
2, into slightly stronger shear around day 3, and over warmer
water with decreasing shear around days 4-5. However, the structure
of Leslie is not currently conducive for rapid changes in intensity
either up or down. Thus, the intensity forecast, which has only
minor tweaks from the previous forecast, follows the trend of the
previous forecast and the guidance in showing gradual weakening near
48 h, followed by slight intensification near 96-120 h.

Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the
next few days across the eastern coast of the United States,
Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and Atlantic
Canada. Please consult products from your local weather office as
these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 36.2N 58.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 36.7N 57.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 36.7N 55.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 36.4N 53.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 35.8N 51.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 34.0N 48.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 31.5N 44.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 30.0N 42.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-10-09 07:31

WTNT33 KNHC 090238
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 51
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 PM AST Mon Oct 08 2018

...LONG-LIVED LESLIE A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.9N 44.6W
ABOUT 1050 MI...1690 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 135 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 32.9 North, longitude 44.6 West. Leslie is
moving toward the southeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slower
motion toward the southeast or east-southeast is anticipated over
the next couple of days, with a turn toward the east-northeast
forecast on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next
72 hours, and Leslie could become a hurricane again on Wednesday.

Leslie is a large tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-10-09 07:31

WTNT33 KNHC 082046
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 50
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 PM AST Mon Oct 08 2018

...TENACIOUS LESLIE RESTRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.8N 45.8W
ABOUT 1090 MI...1750 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 130 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 33.8 North, longitude 45.8 West. Leslie is
moving toward the southeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slower
motion toward the southeast or east-southeast is anticipated over
the next couple of days, with a turn toward the east-northeast
forecast on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Leslie is forecast to become a hurricane again on
Wednesday, and further strengthening is possible through Thursday.

Leslie is a large tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-10-09 07:31

WTNT33 KNHC 081438
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 49
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Mon Oct 08 2018

...LESLIE EXPECTED TO BEGIN STRENGTHENING LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.6N 47.0W
ABOUT 1035 MI...1670 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1135 MI...1825 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 120 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 34.6 North, longitude 47.0 West. Leslie is
moving toward the east-southeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). An
east-southeast to southeast motion at a slightly slower forward
speed is expected for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is anticipated, and Leslie could be near
hurricane strength in a few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-10-09 07:31

WTNT33 KNHC 080844
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 48
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 AM AST Mon Oct 08 2018

...LESLIE STILL LINGERING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.2N 47.9W
ABOUT 990 MI...1590 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1170 MI...1885 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 35.2 North, longitude 47.9 West. Leslie is
moving toward the east-southeast near 13 mph (20 km/h) and an
east-southeast to southeast motion is expected during the next few
days across the open central and eastern Atlantic.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-10-09 07:31

WTNT33 KNHC 080240
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 PM AST Sun Oct 07 2018

...LESLIE APPEARS TO BE WEAKER BUT IT WILL RE-INTENSIFY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.7N 49.1W
ABOUT 930 MI...1495 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1230 MI...1975 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 35.7 North, longitude 49.1 West. Leslie is
moving toward the east-southeast near 13 mph (20 km/h).
Leslie is expected to move across the open central and eastern
Atlantic the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected during the next 24 hours, but
some re-strengthening is likely thereafter.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect
portions of the northeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda,
the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and Atlantic Canada through
tonight. Please consult products from your local weather office as
these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-10-09 07:31

WTNT33 KNHC 072035
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 PM AST Sun Oct 07 2018

...LESLIE MARCHES ON WITH NO CHANGE IN SPEED OR STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.9N 49.9W
ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1270 MI...2040 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 115 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 35.9 North, longitude 49.9 West. Leslie is
moving toward the east-southeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). This
general motion is expected to continue for the next several days,
with Leslie moving across the open central and eastern Atlantic
during that time.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Small fluctuations in intensity are possible for the next day or
so, and Leslie is expected to remain a tropical storm for the next
couple of days. By mid-week, some strengthening is anticipated and
Leslie could be near hurricane strength on Wednesday or Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect
portions of the northeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda,
the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and Atlantic Canada through
tonight. Please consult products from your local weather office as
these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-10-09 07:31

WTNT33 KNHC 071449
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Sun Oct 07 2018

...LESLIE PERSISTING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.6N 51.4W
ABOUT 820 MI...1315 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1340 MI...2155 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 115 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 36.6 North, longitude 51.4 West. Leslie is
moving toward the east-southeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). This
general motion is expected to continue for the next several days,
with Leslie moving across the open central and eastern Atlantic
during that time.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, but slow
strengthening could begin on Monday. Leslie is expected to remain a
tropical storm for the next couple of days, but could be near
hurricane strength by mid-week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect
portions of the northeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda,
the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and Atlantic Canada through
tonight. Please consult products from your local weather office as
these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-10-09 07:31

WTNT33 KNHC 070847
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 AM AST Sun Oct 07 2018

...LESLIE HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH WHILE MOVING EASTWARD OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.2N 52.0W
ABOUT 800 MI...1290 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1365 MI...2195 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 95 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 37.2 North, longitude 52.0 West. Leslie is
moving toward the east near 12 mph (19 km/h). A motion toward the
east-southeast is expected to begin later today and continue through
the middle of the week, with Leslie moving across the open central
and eastern Atlantic during that time.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected, but Leslie is
expected to remain a tropical storm during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect
portions of the northeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda,
the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and Atlantic Canada through
tonight. Please consult products from your local weather office as
these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-10-09 07:31

WTNT33 KNHC 070247
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 PM AST Sat Oct 06 2018

...LESLIE MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.3N 52.9W
ABOUT 755 MI...1220 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 95 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 37.3 North, longitude 52.9 West. Leslie is
moving toward the east near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion
is forecast to continue into Sunday morning. A motion toward the
east-southeast is expected to begin by Sunday afternoon or evening
and continue through the middle of next week, with Leslie moving
across the open central and eastern Atlantic during that time.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next
few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 290 miles (465 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect
portions of the northeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda,
the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and Atlantic Canada during the
next few days. Please consult products from your local weather
office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip
currents.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-09 07:31

WTNT33 KNHC 062036
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 PM AST Sat Oct 06 2018

...LESLIE MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.4N 54.5W
ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 37.4 North, longitude 54.5 West. Leslie is
moving toward the east near 12 mph (19 km/h). A faster motion
toward the east and east-southeast is expected through the middle
of next week, taking Leslie across the central and eastern Atlantic.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next 2
to 3 days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 290 miles (465 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect
portions of the northeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda,
the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and Atlantic Canada during the
next few days. Please consult products from your local weather
office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip
currents.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven/Avila

2018-10-09 07:31

WTNT33 KNHC 061446
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 06 2018

...LESLIE TURNING EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.7N 55.8W
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 37.7 North, longitude 55.8 West. Leslie is
now moving toward the east near 9 mph (15 km/h). A faster motion
toward the east and east-southeast is expected through the middle
of next week, taking Leslie across the central and eastern Atlantic.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 290 miles (465 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect
portions of the northeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda,
the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and Atlantic Canada during the
next few days. Please consult products from your local weather
office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip
currents.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-10-09 07:31

WTNT33 KNHC 060848
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 AM AST Sat Oct 06 2018

...LESLIE LOITERING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.2N 56.4W
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 37.2 North, longitude 56.4 West. Leslie is
moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A faster motion
toward the east and east-southeast is expected through the middle
of next week, taking Leslie across the central and eastern Atlantic.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 290 miles (465 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect
portions of the eastern coast of the United States, Bermuda,
the Bahamas, the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and Atlantic Canada
during the next few days. Please consult products from your local
weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf
and rip currents.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-10-09 07:31

WTNT33 KNHC 060231
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 PM AST Fri Oct 05 2018

...INDOMITABLE LESLIE EXPECTED TO STIR UP THE ATLANTIC WATERS
FOR A FEW MORE DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.6N 57.2W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 36.6 North, longitude 57.2 West. Leslie is
moving toward the east-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward
the east with slight increase in forward speed is expected on
Saturday, and a motion toward the east-southeast is expected
Saturday night through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. No significant change in strength is forecast during the next
few days.

Leslie is a large cyclone, and tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 290 miles (465 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect
portions of the eastern coast of the United States, Bermuda,
the Bahamas, the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and Atlantic Canada
during the next few days. Please consult products from your local
weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf
and rip currents.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-10-09 07:31

WTNT33 KNHC 052039
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 PM AST Fri Oct 05 2018

...LESLIE WEAKENS A LITTLE AND SLOWS ITS FORWARD SPEED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.2N 58.1W
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 36.2 North, longitude 58.1 West. Leslie is
moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn
toward the east at a faster forward speed is expected on Saturday,
and a motion toward the east-southeast is expected Saturday night
through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. A slight weakening is forecast during the next few
days.

Leslie remains a large tropical storm, with tropical-storm-force
winds extending outward up to 290 miles (465 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect
portions of the eastern coast of the United States, Bermuda,
the Bahamas, the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and Atlantic Canada
during the next few days. Please consult products from your local
weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf
and rip currents.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-10-09 07:31

WTNT23 KNHC 090237
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 51
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
0300 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 44.6W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 135 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 150SE 150SW 270NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 360SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 44.6W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 45.0W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 31.5N 43.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 40SE 40SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 130SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 29.6N 42.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.1N 42.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 40SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 110SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 27.9N 41.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 30.0N 35.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 70SE 60SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 33.5N 24.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 35.5N 16.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.9N 44.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-10-09 07:31

WTNT23 KNHC 082045
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 50
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
2100 UTC MON OCT 08 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 45.8W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 130 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 150SE 150SW 270NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 240SE 360SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 45.8W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 46.3W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 32.5N 44.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 130SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 30.6N 43.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 28.9N 42.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 40SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 110SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 28.2N 41.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.5N 37.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 70SE 60SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 33.5N 26.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 37.0N 17.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.8N 45.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-10-09 07:31

WTNT23 KNHC 081437
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 49
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
1500 UTC MON OCT 08 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 47.0W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 120 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 200SE 180SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 360SE 360SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 47.0W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.0N 47.5W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 33.6N 45.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
34 KT...140NE 180SE 180SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 32.0N 43.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE 180SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 30.2N 42.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 150SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 29.1N 41.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 29.5N 37.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 170SE 140SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 33.0N 28.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 39.0N 18.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.6N 47.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-10-09 07:31

WTNT23 KNHC 080844
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 48
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
0900 UTC MON OCT 08 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.2N 47.9W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 110 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 200SE 180SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 360SE 360SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.2N 47.9W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 48.5W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 34.3N 46.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 180SE 170SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 32.9N 44.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 180SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 31.1N 42.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 150SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 29.6N 41.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 28.8N 38.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 140SE 130SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 31.2N 30.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 36.8N 20.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.2N 47.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-10-09 07:31

WTNT23 KNHC 080239
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 47
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
0300 UTC MON OCT 08 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.7N 49.1W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 110 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 200SE 180SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 360SE 420SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.7N 49.1W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 49.7W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 35.2N 47.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 200SE 180SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 33.8N 45.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 180SE 180SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 32.0N 43.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 160SE 180SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 30.5N 41.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 150SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 28.5N 39.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 140SE 150SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 30.0N 33.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 32.0N 24.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.7N 49.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-10-09 07:31

WTNT23 KNHC 072035
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 46
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
2100 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 49.9W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 115 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT.......150NE 200SE 180SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 320SE 360SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 49.9W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 50.5W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 35.4N 48.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT...140NE 200SE 180SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 34.3N 45.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 180SE 180SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 32.8N 43.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 160SE 180SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 31.2N 41.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 150SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 28.2N 38.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 140SE 150SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 28.6N 33.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 30.5N 27.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.9N 49.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-10-09 07:31

WTNT23 KNHC 071448
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
1500 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.6N 51.4W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 115 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......240NE 240SE 240SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 320SE 360SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.6N 51.4W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 51.8W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 36.2N 49.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 210SE 200SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 35.4N 47.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 180SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 34.2N 44.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 160SE 180SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 32.6N 41.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 170SE 180SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 29.1N 36.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 140SE 150SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 28.5N 31.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 30.0N 28.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.6N 51.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-10-09 07:31

WTNT23 KNHC 070846
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
0900 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.2N 52.0W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 95 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......240NE 240SE 240SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 300SE 300SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.2N 52.0W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 52.6W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 36.6N 50.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...200NE 210SE 200SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 36.1N 48.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 170SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 35.1N 45.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 160SE 170SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 33.7N 42.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 170SE 180SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 30.1N 36.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 140SE 160SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 28.6N 32.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 29.5N 27.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.2N 52.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-10-09 07:31

WTNT23 KNHC 070246
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
0300 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 52.9W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 95 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......250NE 250SE 240SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 300SE 330SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 52.9W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 53.5W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 36.8N 51.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...210NE 230SE 220SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 36.2N 48.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...170NE 200SE 200SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 35.4N 46.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 170SE 170SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 34.2N 43.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 150SE 150SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 30.9N 38.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 140SE 160SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 28.7N 33.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 29.5N 28.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.3N 52.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

2018-10-09 07:31

WTNT23 KNHC 062035
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
2100 UTC SAT OCT 06 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 54.5W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......250NE 250SE 240SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 330SE 300SW 450NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 54.5W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.5N 55.1W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 37.1N 52.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...210NE 230SE 220SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 36.6N 50.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...170NE 200SE 200SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 35.8N 48.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 170SE 170SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 34.8N 45.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 150SE 150SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 31.5N 40.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 140SE 160SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 28.5N 35.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 28.5N 31.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.4N 54.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-10-09 07:31

WTNT23 KNHC 061446
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
1500 UTC SAT OCT 06 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 55.8W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......250NE 250SE 240SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 360SE 300SW 450NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 55.8W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 56.3W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 37.6N 54.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT...100NE 140SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...210NE 230SE 220SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 37.3N 51.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...170NE 200SE 200SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 36.6N 49.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 170SE 170SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 35.7N 46.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 150SE 150SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 33.0N 41.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 140SE 160SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 30.0N 37.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 29.0N 31.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.7N 55.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-10-09 07:31

WTNT23 KNHC 060847
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
0900 UTC SAT OCT 06 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.2N 56.4W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......250NE 250SE 240SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..540NE 300SE 360SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.2N 56.4W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 56.9W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 37.3N 55.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT...100NE 140SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...210NE 230SE 220SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 37.1N 52.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...170NE 200SE 200SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 36.5N 50.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 170SE 170SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 35.7N 47.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 150SE 150SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 33.4N 42.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 140SE 160SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 30.5N 37.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 28.5N 32.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.2N 56.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

2018-10-09 07:31

WTNT23 KNHC 060230
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
0300 UTC SAT OCT 06 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.6N 57.2W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 90NE 100SE 90SW 0NW.
34 KT.......250NE 220SE 190SW 220NW.
12 FT SEAS..540NE 360SE 360SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.6N 57.2W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 57.5W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 37.0N 56.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 90SW 0NW.
34 KT...220NE 210SE 190SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 37.0N 54.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 90SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 190SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 36.5N 51.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 200SE 190SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 36.0N 49.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 150SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 34.0N 45.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 140SE 140SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 31.0N 41.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 29.0N 38.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.6N 57.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-10-09 07:31

WTNT23 KNHC 052039
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
2100 UTC FRI OCT 05 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 58.1W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 90NE 100SE 90SW 0NW.
34 KT.......250NE 220SE 190SW 220NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 420SE 360SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 58.1W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 58.3W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 36.7N 57.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 90SW 0NW.
34 KT...220NE 210SE 190SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 36.7N 55.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 90SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 190SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 36.4N 53.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 200SE 190SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 35.8N 51.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 170SE 180SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 34.0N 48.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 140SE 140SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 31.5N 44.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 30.0N 42.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.2N 58.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-10-05 15:31

WTNT43 KNHC 051443
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 05 2018

The structure of Leslie has changed little since the last advisory,
with a cluster of convection just north of the low-level center and
a second cluster well to the southeast of the center. The initial
intensity is held at 55 kt based mainly on continuity from earlier
scatterometer data, but it is possible that this is a little
generous. It should be noted that overall, Leslie has lost some
organization since this time yesterday due to the disappearance of
the eye and an overall decrease in convective banding.

Leslie appears to be slowing its forward speed, with the initial
motion now 345/8. A turn to the north and a slower forward speed
are expected during the next 12 h, followed by a turn toward the
east-southeast by 36 h as Leslie encounters the southern edge of the
mid-latitude westerlies. A general motion toward the east-southeast
or southeast should then continue for the remainder of the forecast
period. As noted in the previous advisory, there has been a
southward shift in the guidance, and the new forecast track is again
shifted a little to the south of the previous track. However, it
lies to the north of the HCCA and TVCN consensus models.

The forecast track takes Leslie over cooler waters around days 2-3,
into increasing shear around days 3-4, and over warmer water with
decreasing shear around days 4-5. However, the structure of Leslie
is not currently conducive for rapid changes in intensity either up
or down. Thus, the intensity forecast follows the trend of the
previous forecast and the guidance in showing gradual weakening for
48-72 h, followed by slight intensification near 96-120 h.

Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the
next few days across the southeastern coast of the United States,
Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles. These
swells will also increase near the coasts of New England and
Atlantic Canada later today. Please consult products from your
local weather office as these conditions could cause life-
threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 36.2N 58.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 36.8N 58.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 37.1N 56.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 36.9N 54.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 36.5N 53.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 35.0N 49.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 33.0N 45.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 31.0N 42.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-10-05 15:31

WTNT33 KNHC 051441
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 05 2018

...WAVES FROM LESLIE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE COASTS OF
ATLANTIC CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.2N 58.4W
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 36.2 North, longitude 58.4 West. Leslie is
moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn
toward the north and a decrease in forward speed are expected later
today, and a turn toward the east and east-southeast is expected on
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. A slight weakening is forecast during the next few days.

Leslie remains a large tropical storm, with tropical-storm-force
winds extending outward up to 290 miles (465 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect
portions of the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda,
the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles during the next few
days. Swells are expected to increase near the coasts of New
England and Atlantic Canada today. Please consult products from
your local weather office as these conditions could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-10-05 15:31

WTNT23 KNHC 051441
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
1500 UTC FRI OCT 05 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 58.4W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT.......130NE 130SE 120SW 0NW.
34 KT.......250NE 220SE 190SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 480SE 360SW 320NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 58.4W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 58.4W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 36.8N 58.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 90SW 0NW.
34 KT...220NE 210SE 190SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 37.1N 56.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 90SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 190SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 36.9N 54.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 200SE 190SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 36.5N 53.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 170SE 180SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 35.0N 49.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 140SE 140SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 33.0N 45.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 31.0N 42.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.2N 58.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-10-05 09:31

WTNT43 KNHC 050856
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 AM AST Fri Oct 05 2018

Leslie's structure has evolved somewhat just within the past 6
hours. Deep convection has redeveloped near the low-level center,
although it is displaced a bit to the north due to some southerly
shear. The cyclone's circulation remains quite large, and earlier
ASCAT data indicated that the radius of maximum winds is about
90-100 n mi away from the center. Since there is some inner-core
convection again, the initial intensity remains 55 kt based on the
ASCAT data.

Leslie has gained some speed and has turned toward the
north-northwest, now with an initial motion of 345/12 kt. A
general northward motion should continue for the next 12-24 hours,
but then Leslie will reach the mid-latitude westerlies and make an
abrupt turn toward the east by 36 hours. After that time, Leslie
is expected to make some significant eastward progress, although
the global models are showing several shortwave troughs in the
westerlies imparting a southeastward motion on Leslie by days 4 and
5. In fact, some of the models have shifted significantly
southward by the end of the forecast period, leaving the previous
official forecast near the northern edge of the guidance envelope.
Due to this shift, the new NHC track prediction has been adjusted
southward on days 3-5, although it does not yet show as much
southward motion as indicated by the normally reliable ECMWF, HCCA,
and TVCN multi-model consensus.

Leslie doesn't appear to have to contend with much shear during the
next 3 days or so, but with such a large wind field mixing the
ocean around it, marginal sea surface temperatures are likely to
keep the intensity steady. By days 3 and 4, an increase in shear
could cause some slight weakening. The models are in very good
agreement in showing little to any change in Leslie's intensity
during the next 5 days, and that is largely what is indicated in
the NHC forecast.

Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the
next few days across the southeastern coast of the United States,
Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles. These
swells will also increase near the coasts of New England and
Atlantic Canada later today. Please consult products from your
local weather office as these conditions could cause life-
threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 35.9N 58.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 36.9N 58.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 37.4N 57.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 37.4N 55.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 37.0N 53.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 35.7N 49.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 33.5N 45.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 31.5N 42.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-10-05 09:31

WTNT33 KNHC 050855
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 AM AST Fri Oct 05 2018

...WAVES FROM LESLIE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE COASTS OF
ATLANTIC CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.9N 58.3W
ABOUT 445 MI...720 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 35.9 North, longitude 58.3 West. Leslie is
moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slower
northward motion is expected to occur today, but Leslie will make a
sharp turn toward the east and east-southeast over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next
several days.

Leslie remains a large tropical storm, with tropical-storm-force
winds extending outward up to 290 miles (465 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect
portions of the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda,
the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles during the next few
days. Swells are expected to increase near the coasts of New
England and Atlantic Canada today. Please consult products from
your local weather office as these conditions could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-10-05 09:31

WTNT23 KNHC 050855
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
0900 UTC FRI OCT 05 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 58.3W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT.......130NE 130SE 120SW 0NW.
34 KT.......250NE 220SE 190SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 480SE 420SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 58.3W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 58.2W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 36.9N 58.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 90SW 0NW.
34 KT...220NE 210SE 190SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 37.4N 57.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 90SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 190SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 37.4N 55.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 200SE 190SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 37.0N 53.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT...130NE 170SE 180SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 35.7N 49.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 140SE 140SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 33.5N 45.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 31.5N 42.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.9N 58.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

2018-10-05 07:32

WTNT43 KNHC 050232
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 PM AST Thu Oct 04 2018

Leslie lacks an inner core and now consists of a vigorous large
circulation with small outer bands of shallow to moderate
convection. Satellite intensity estimates have continued to yield a
lower intensity, and the winds have been reduced to 55 kt in this
advisory based on a recent ASCAT pass. The shear does not appear to
be a problem for Leslie, and the cyclone is forecast to be moving
over SSTs which appear to not be cool enough to result in
significant weakening. In fact, the average of the intensity
guidance suggests that Leslie basically will be a 50-kt cyclone
through the forecast period and so does the NHC forecast.

Leslie is moving northward or 350 degrees at 10 kt steered by the
southerly flow on the western edge of the subtropical ridge. In
about 24 to 36 hours, the storm will encounter the mid-latitude
westerlies, and this flow pattern will force Leslie to make a sharp
turn to the east and even to the east-southeast with no change in
forward speed. Track guidance is in extremely good agreement with
this solution for the next 3 to 4 days. After that time, the models
vary significantly in speed, but since the cyclone will be embedded
in the westerlies, the NHC forecast maintains the eastward
progression of Leslie as indicated in the previous forecast.

Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the
next few days across the southeastern coast of the United States,
Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles. These
swells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New England
and Atlantic Canada on Friday. Please consult products from your
local weather office as these conditions could cause life-
threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 34.9N 57.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 36.2N 58.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 37.2N 57.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 37.5N 56.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 37.5N 54.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 36.5N 50.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 34.5N 45.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 33.0N 42.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-10-05 07:32

WTNT43 KNHC 042033
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 PM AST Thu Oct 04 2018

Leslie has changed little in convective structure today. Visible
imagery shows occasional appearances of an eye inside an area of
central convection, with a complex of outer bands wrapping around
this inner feature. Infrared imagery, though, suggests that the
convection is relatively shallow. Despite the lack of change in the
convective pattern, scatterometer data shows there have been
significant changes in the wind structure. The strongest winds are
now in a band about 90-100 n mi from the center, with the winds in
the inner core being notably weaker. This suggest the possibility
that Leslie is trying to undergo an eyewall replacement, albeit one
with a very large outer eyewall. Based on the scatterometer data
and slightly decreased satellite intensity estimates, the initial
intensity is reduced to 60 kt.

There is little change to the intensity forecast philosophy, the
intensity forecast guidance, or the intensity forecast. While the
vertical shear should remain light through the forecast period, the
forecast track takes the center away from 26C sea surface
temperatures and over 24-25C temperatures, and this should cause a
gradual weakening for the next several days. There are major
changes to the initial and forecast wind radii based on the
scatterometer data and the analyzed initial size.

The initial motion is 355/10. In the short term, Leslie will be
steered northward between a mid-level ridge over the central
Atlantic and a mid- to upper-level trough seen in water vapor
imagery north of Bermuda. A decrease in forward speed should occur
from 24-36 h as the trough moves south and a second ridge develops
to the west of the tropical cyclone. Beyond 36 h, Leslie is
expected to move eastward to east-southeastward at a faster forward
speed along the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies.
Overall, the new forecast track is close to the previous track
through 48 h, then a little north of the old track after that time.
However, there is an increased spread in the guidance in both the
track and the forward speed near the end of the forecast period, and
confidence is decreasing for this part of the forecast.

Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the
next few days across the southeastern coast of the United States,
Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles. These
swells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New England
and Atlantic Canada on Friday. Please consult products from your
local weather office as these conditions could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 33.3N 57.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 34.9N 58.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 36.1N 58.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 36.8N 57.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 36.7N 55.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 36.0N 52.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 34.5N 48.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 32.5N 44.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-10-05 07:32

WTNT43 KNHC 041437
TCDAT3

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 04 2018

Leslie continues to have an inner area of convection near the
center, with a larger convective band present about 120 n mi from
the center and additional banding in the northwestern quadrant.
Since the last advisory, the central convection has become less
symmetric and the eye has become less defined. Based on this and
the latest satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is
nudged downward to 65 kt. While the vertical shear should remain
light through the forecast period, the forecast track takes the
center away from 26C sea surface temperatures and over 24-25C
temperatures, and this should cause a gradual weakening for the
next several days. Since there is little change in the guidance,
the new intensity forecast is again an update of the previous
forecast.

The initial motion is now 355/8. In the short term, Leslie will be
steered northward with some increase in speed between a mid-level
ridge over the central Atlantic and a mid- to upper-level trough
seen in water vapor imagery north of Bermuda. A decrease in
forward speed should occur from 24-36 h as the trough moves south
and a second ridge develops to the west of the tropical cyclone.
Beyond 48 h, Leslie is expected to move eastward to
east-southeastward at a faster forward speed along the southern edge
of the mid-latitude westerlies. The track guidance generally
agrees with this scenario, although some spread in both direction
and speed appears by 120 h. The new track forecast is similar to
the previous forecast and is mostly a blend of the TVCN and HCCA
consensus models.

Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the
next few days across the southeastern coast of the United States,
Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles. These
swells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New England
and Atlantic Canada on Friday. Please consult products from your
local weather office as these conditions could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 32.5N 57.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 34.1N 57.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 35.8N 58.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 36.6N 58.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 36.8N 56.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 36.0N 53.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 35.0N 50.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 33.5N 47.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-10-05 07:32

WTNT33 KNHC 050231
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 PM AST Thu Oct 04 2018

...LESLIE REMAINS A LARGE CYCLONE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.9N 57.6W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 34.9 North, longitude 57.6 West. Leslie is
moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through Friday with a decrease in forward
speed. Leslie should turn eastward or east-southeastward over the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 2 to
3 days.

Leslie is a large cyclone and the tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 290 miles (465 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect
portions of the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda,
and the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are expected to
increase near the coasts of New England and Atlantic Canada by the
end of the week. Please consult products from your local weather
office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip
currents.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-10-05 07:32

WTNT33 KNHC 042031
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 PM AST Thu Oct 04 2018

...LESLIE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.3N 57.5W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 33.3 North, longitude 57.5 West. Leslie is
moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A reduction in forward speed
is forecast on Friday and Friday night, with Leslie turning toward
the east or east-southeast over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued gradual weakening is expected during
the next several days.

Satellite wind data indicate that Leslie is larger than previously
reported, and that tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to
290 miles (465 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect
portions of the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda,
and the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are expected to
increase near the coasts of New England and Atlantic Canada by the
end of the week. Please consult products from your local weather
office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip
currents.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-10-05 07:32

WTNT33 KNHC 041435
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 04 2018

...LESLIE WEAKENS A LITTLE AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.5N 57.2W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was
located near latitude 32.5 North, longitude 57.2 West. Leslie is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion with
an increase in forward speed is expected through tonight. A
reduction in speed is forecast on Friday and Friday night, with
Leslie turning toward the east or east-southeast over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued gradual weakening is expected during
the next several days, and Leslie may weaken to a tropical storm on
Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect
portions of the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda,
and the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are expected to
increase near the coasts of New England and Atlantic Canada by the
end of the week. Please consult products from your local weather
office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip
currents.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-10-05 07:32

WTNT23 KNHC 050231
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
0300 UTC FRI OCT 05 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.9N 57.6W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT.......110NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.
34 KT.......250NE 200SE 180SW 190NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 420SE 420SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.9N 57.6W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 57.5W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 36.2N 58.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT...110NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.
34 KT...250NE 180SE 160SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 37.2N 57.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 37.5N 56.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 60SE 90SW 0NW.
34 KT...190NE 200SE 170SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 37.5N 54.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 170SE 180SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 36.5N 50.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 60SE 90SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 130SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 34.5N 45.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 33.0N 42.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.9N 57.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-10-05 07:32

WTNT23 KNHC 042031
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
2100 UTC THU OCT 04 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 57.5W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT.......110NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.
34 KT.......250NE 180SE 160SW 190NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 480SE 480SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 57.5W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 57.4W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 34.9N 58.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...110NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.
34 KT...250NE 180SE 160SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 36.1N 58.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...220NE 200SE 160SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 36.8N 57.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 90SW 70NW.
34 KT...190NE 200SE 170SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 36.7N 55.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 180SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 36.0N 52.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE 160SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 34.5N 48.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 32.5N 44.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.3N 57.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-10-05 07:32

WTNT23 KNHC 041435
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
1500 UTC THU OCT 04 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 57.2W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......160NE 160SE 150SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 420SE 480SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 57.2W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 57.1W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 34.1N 57.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 35.8N 58.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 36.6N 58.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 180SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 36.8N 56.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 180SE 170SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 36.0N 53.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 160SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 35.0N 50.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 33.5N 47.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.5N 57.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-10-04 09:32

WTNT43 KNHC 040848
TCDAT3

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 AM AST Thu Oct 04 2018

Leslie has shown no appreciable changes in its structure during the
past several hours, and it continues to be a little thin on
convection within its eyewall. Another more impressive band of
convection extends nearly more than 120 n mi northwest of the
center of the ragged eye. The initial intensity remains 70 kt for
this advisory, mainly based on a blend of Dvorak CI numbers from
TAFB and SAB and an earlier SATCON estimate. Leslie's center has
reached sea surface temperatures of 26 degrees Celsius, and these
marginal water temperatures are likely to cause a gradual decrease
in the cyclone's winds during the next several days. The new NHC
intensity forecast is mainly just an update to the previous
forecast, largely following the HCCA guidance and the ICON
intensity consensus.

Leslie continues to move northward, or 350/7 kt, between a
shortwave trough south of Nova Scotia and a mid-level ridge over
the central Atlantic. This northward motion should continue for
the next 36 hours before Leslie becomes trapped between two
mid-level highs and is isolated from the mid-latitude westerlies to
the north, thus causing its forward motion to nearly stall by 48
hours. By days 3 through 5, Leslie should feel enough influence
from the westerlies and an approaching cold front to cause it to
move a bit faster toward the east or east-southeast over the north
Atlantic. Like the intensity forecast, no major changes were
required to the official track forecast, which is merely an update
to the previous NHC prediction.

Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the
next few days across the southeastern coast of the United States,
Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles. These
swells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New England
and Atlantic Canada on Friday. Please consult products from your
local weather office as these conditions could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 31.4N 57.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 33.0N 57.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 35.1N 58.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 36.3N 58.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 36.8N 57.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 36.3N 54.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 35.5N 51.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 34.5N 48.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-10-04 09:32

WTNT33 KNHC 040847
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 AM AST Thu Oct 04 2018

...LESLIE STILL PACING AROUND THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.4N 57.1W
ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located
near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 57.1 West. Leslie is moving
toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion with an
increase in forward speed is expected through tonight. A reduction
in speed is forecast on Friday and Friday night, with Leslie
accelerating toward the east or east-southeast over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect
portions of the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda,
and the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are expected to
increase near the coasts of New England and Atlantic Canada by the
end of the week. Please consult products from your local weather
office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip
currents.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-10-04 09:32

WTNT23 KNHC 040847
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
0900 UTC THU OCT 04 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 57.1W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......160NE 160SE 150SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 360SE 540SW 510NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 57.1W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 57.1W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 33.0N 57.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 35.1N 58.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 36.3N 58.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 180SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 36.8N 57.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 190SE 180SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 36.3N 54.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 160SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 35.5N 51.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 34.5N 48.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.4N 57.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

2018-10-04 03:32

WTNT43 KNHC 040233
TCDAT3

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 PM AST Wed Oct 03 2018

It is difficult to add more to the discussion about a cyclone that
has moved very little during the past few days and has not changed
significantly in structure either. Leslie's cloud pattern is
not very impressive with a large ragged-eye feature (if you can
call that an eye) surrounded by weaker convection than earlier
today. Although Dvorak numbers are lower tonight, we can still hold
the intensity at 70 kt in this advisory. Most likely, the convection
will reinvigorate tonight, but no important changes in intensity are
anticipated during the next 24 hours or so. A weakening trend is
expected thereafter as the cyclone reaches cooler waters.

Leslie has begun to move northward at about 7 kt, and most likely
the cyclone will continue on that track for the next two days. By
then, Leslie will encounter the mid-latitude westerlies and this
flow will force the cyclone to make a sharp turn to the east. Track
models are in remarkably good agreement with the initial northward
turn and with eastward turn. However, during the last portion of
the forecast models diverge, and the confidence in the track
forecast is not very high.

Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the
next few days across the southeastern coast of the United States,
Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles. These
swells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New England
and Atlantic Canada on Friday. Please consult products from your
local weather office as these conditions could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 30.6N 57.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 32.0N 57.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 34.2N 57.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 36.0N 57.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 37.0N 57.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 36.5N 56.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 36.5N 53.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 35.5N 50.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-10-04 03:32

WTNT33 KNHC 040232
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 PM AST Wed Oct 03 2018

...LESLIE REFUSES TO CHANGE MUCH IN INTENSITY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 57.0W
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was
located near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 57.0 West. Leslie is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general
motion should continue through Friday night. A sharp turn to the
east is expected this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Small fluctuations in intensity are likely during the
next day or two.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect
portions of the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda,
and the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are expected to
increase near the coasts of New England and Atlantic Canada by the
end of the week. Please consult products from your local weather
office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip
currents.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-10-04 03:32

WTNT23 KNHC 040232
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
0300 UTC THU OCT 04 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 57.0W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT.......140NE 130SE 150SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 330SE 540SW 540NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 57.0W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 57.0W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 32.0N 57.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 150SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 34.2N 57.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 36.0N 57.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 190SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 37.0N 57.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 36.5N 56.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 170SW 170NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 36.5N 53.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 35.5N 50.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N 57.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-10-03 21:33

WTNT43 KNHC 032035
TCDAT3

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 PM AST Wed Oct 03 2018

The satellite presentation of Leslie has changed little over the
past six hours. Leslie continues to have a large ragged eye with
periodic intrusions of slightly drier air. The hurricane still has
well-defined outflow over the northern semicircle. The initial wind
speed is held at 70 kt based on the steady state appearance.

Now that Leslie that has begun its advertised northward turn, it is
passing over the cool wake that it presumably created during the
past day or so, therefore, little change in strength is expected
through this evening. However, some slight strengthening is
possible later tonight and Thursday after crossing the cool wake.
Gradual weakening then is expected to begin late Thursday when
the system reaches cooler waters farther to the north. The NHC
intensity forecast is an update of the previous one and near the
middle of the guidance envelope.

Satellite images indicate that Leslie is moving northward, and this
motion appears to be accelerating. This northward motion is
expected to continue through Friday as the hurricane moves in the
flow between a shortwave trough to the northwest and a mid-level
ridge to its southeast. After that time, an eastward motion is
forecast when a second trough approaches Leslie from the north. The
latest model guidance has shifted a little to the west in the short
term and is slightly slower and farther south at the latter forecast
points. The NHC official track forecast has been adjusted
accordingly to trend toward this guidance.

Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the
next few days across the southeastern coast of the United States,
Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles. These
swells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New England
and Atlantic Canada on Friday. Please consult products from your
local weather office as these conditions could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 29.9N 56.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 30.7N 57.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 32.7N 57.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 34.7N 57.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 36.1N 57.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 36.8N 56.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 36.7N 53.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 36.0N 49.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Onderlinde

2018-10-03 21:33

WTNT33 KNHC 032034
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 PM AST Wed Oct 03 2018

...LESLIE IS BEGINNING TO TURN NORTHWARD WHILE HOLDING STEADY IN
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 56.9W
ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located
near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 56.9 West. Leslie is moving
toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h) and this motion, with an
increase in forward speed, should continue through Friday night. A
turn to the east is expected this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next
day or so, but a slow weakening trend is expected to begin by
Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect
portions of the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda,
and the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are expected to
increase near the coasts of New England and Atlantic Canada by the
end of the week. Please consult products from your local weather
office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip
currents.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Onderlinde

2018-10-03 21:33

WTNT23 KNHC 032034
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
2100 UTC WED OCT 03 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 56.9W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT.......140NE 130SE 150SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 300SE 540SW 540NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 56.9W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 56.9W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 30.7N 57.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 150SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 32.7N 57.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 34.7N 57.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 190SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 36.1N 57.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 36.8N 56.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 170SW 170NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 36.7N 53.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 36.0N 49.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.9N 56.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/ONDERLINDE

2018-10-03 20:21

WTNT43 KNHC 031432
TCDAT3

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 03 2018

Leslie continues to slowly strengthen. Satellite images indicate
that the deep convection has been gradually increasing in coverage
and become more symmetric around the large ragged eye of the
hurricane. An average of the latest Dvorak classifications from
TAFB and SAB support increasing the initial wind speed to 70 kt.
Leslie still has a little more time to strengthen as it should
remain over waters warmer than 26 deg C and in favorable
atmospheric conditions for about another day. Thereafter, the
hurricane is expected to move over progressively cooler water,
which should induce a slow weakening trend. The NHC intensity
forecast lies closest to the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids.

The hurricane has come to a stall, as expected, in very weak
steering currents. The combination of a shortwave trough moving
off the New England coast and a building ridge to the southeast of
Leslie should cause the hurricane to begin moving northward this
evening. This motion with an increase in forward speed should
continue through Friday. By the weekend, the hurricane is expected
to turn to the east due to a broad trough over the north Atlantic.
The models remain in very good agreement, and little change was
made to the previous NHC forecast track.

Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to increase over the
next day or two across the southeastern coast of the United
States, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles.
These swells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New
England and Atlantic Canada on Friday. Please consult products from
your local weather office as these conditions could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 29.5N 56.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 30.0N 56.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 31.6N 56.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 33.9N 57.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 35.6N 57.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 36.9N 56.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 37.0N 54.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 36.7N 49.8W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-10-03 20:21

WTNT43 KNHC 030845
TCDAT3

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 AM AST Wed Oct 03 2018

Deep convection surrounding the center of Leslie has become better
organized overnight, with the development of a ragged eye in
infrared satellite images. A 0552 UTC AMSR2 microwave overpass
revealed a well-defined low-level eye with a ring of broken
convection surrounding it. T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB were
4.0 on the Dvorak scale, therefore the initial intensity has
been increased to 65 kt. This makes Leslie the sixth hurricane
of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season.

The hurricane is forecast to remain within favorable environmental
conditions consisting of warm water and low vertical wind shear
over the next day or two. These conditions should allow for some
additional strengthening. After 48 hours, Leslie will be moving
over cooler waters, which should induce gradual weakening later
in the period.

Leslie has become nearly stationary overnight, and it appears that
the cyclone's equatorward motion has likely come to an end. A
shortwave trough to the northwest of the storm and a building ridge
to the east, are expected to allow Leslie to begin moving northward
by tonight. A northward motion is then expected to continue over
the next 2-3 days, but by the weekend Leslie is predicted to turn
eastward as a broad trough dips southward over the north Atlantic.
The dynamical model guidance is in relatively good agreement on this
scenario and the new NHC track forecast is essentially an update of
the previous advisory.

Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to increase over the
next couple of days across the southeastern coast of the United
States, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles.
These swells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New
England and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week. Please consult
products from your local weather office as these conditions could
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 29.6N 56.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 29.7N 57.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 30.8N 57.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 32.8N 57.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 35.0N 57.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 37.1N 56.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 37.0N 53.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 37.0N 50.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-03 20:21

WTNT33 KNHC 031432
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 03 2018

...LESLIE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE WHILE MEANDERING OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 56.8W
ABOUT 510 MI...825 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was
located near latitude 29.5 North, longitude 56.8 West. Leslie is
stationary and little motion is expected for the next several
hours. A northward motion is forecast to begin this evening, and
this motion with an increase in forward speed should continue
through Friday night. A turn to the east is expected this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next
day or so, but a slow weakening trend is expected to begin on
Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles
(370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect
portions of the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda,
and the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are expected to
increase near the coasts of New England and Atlantic Canada by the
end of the week. Please consult products from your local weather
office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip
currents.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-10-03 20:21

WTNT33 KNHC 030844
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 AM AST Wed Oct 03 2018

...LESLIE BECOMES A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 56.9W
ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located
near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 56.9 West. Leslie is nearly
stationary, and little motion is expected today. A northward
motion is forecast to begin tonight, and this motion should continue
through Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast
during the next day or so.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles
(370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect
portions of the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda,
and the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are expected to
increase near the coasts of New England and Atlantic Canada by the
end of the week. Please consult products from your local weather
office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip
currents.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-03 20:21

WTNT23 KNHC 031432
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
1500 UTC WED OCT 03 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 56.8W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 50SW 90NW.
34 KT.......140NE 130SE 150SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 540SW 540NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 56.8W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 56.8W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 30.0N 56.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 31.6N 56.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 33.9N 57.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 35.6N 57.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 36.9N 56.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 170SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 37.0N 54.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 36.7N 49.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.5N 56.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-10-03 20:21

WTNT23 KNHC 030843
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
0900 UTC WED OCT 03 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 56.9W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 50SW 90NW.
34 KT.......140NE 130SE 150SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 450SW 510NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 56.9W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 56.8W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 29.7N 57.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 90NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 150SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 30.8N 57.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 150SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 32.8N 57.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 35.0N 57.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 37.1N 56.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 180SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 37.0N 53.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 37.0N 50.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.6N 56.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

2018-10-03 03:32

WTNT43 KNHC 030235
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 PM AST Tue Oct 02 2018

Leslie has been trying to become a hurricane all day, but it is not
one yet. The cloud pattern has changed very little during the past
several hours and in fact, one could make the case that is less
organized that earlier today with no eye feature trying to form at
this time. However, Dvorak classifications still support an initial
intensity of 60 kt, and this is confirmed by a recent ASCAT pass
with winds of at least 55 kt. Having said that, environmental
conditions of low shear and a warm ocean favor strengthening, and
NHC again forecasts Leslie to become a hurricane on Wednesday and
remain one for a couple of days. After that time, Leslie will reach
cooler waters and gradual weakening is anticipated.

Leslie is moving very slowly toward the southwest or 220 degrees at
3 kt while embedded within very light steering currents. Most of the
global models bring an eastward-moving short wave near Leslie, and
this flow pattern should force the cyclone to move northward for the
next 2 to 3 days. Thereafter, Leslie will encounter the mid-latitude
westerlies and will move eastward. The forecast is very similar to
the previous one and closely follows both the corrected-consensus
HCCA and the other multi-model aids.

Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to increase tomorrow
and Thursday across the southeastern coast of the United States,
Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles. These
swells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New England
and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week. Please consult products
from your local weather office as these conditions could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents.

The initial 34- and 50-kt wind radii have been slightly adjusted
based on recent ASCAT data.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 29.7N 56.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 29.4N 56.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 30.0N 57.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 31.5N 57.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 33.8N 57.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 36.5N 57.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 37.0N 54.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 37.0N 51.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-10-03 03:32

WTNT33 KNHC 030234
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 PM AST Tue Oct 02 2018

...LESLIE NOT A HURRICANE YET BUT EXPECTED TO BECOME ONE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 56.7W
ABOUT 510 MI...825 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 29.7 North, longitude 56.7 West. Leslie is
moving toward the southwest near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue for most of the day Wednesday. A turn to the
the north is expected to begin late Wednesday and should continue
through early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Leslie is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect
portions of the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda,
and the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are expected to
increase near the coasts of New England and Atlantic Canada by the
end of the week. Please consult products from your local weather
office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip
currents.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-10-03 03:32

WTNT23 KNHC 030234
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
0300 UTC WED OCT 03 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 56.7W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 0SW 80NW.
34 KT.......140NE 100SE 160SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 420SW 540NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 56.7W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 56.6W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 29.4N 56.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 150SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 30.0N 57.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 150SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 31.5N 57.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 200SE 160SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 33.8N 57.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 36.5N 57.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 180SW 170NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 37.0N 54.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 37.0N 51.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.7N 56.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-10-02 21:32

WTNT43 KNHC 022035
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 PM AST Tue Oct 02 2018

Leslie is almost a hurricane. Satellite images indicate that a ring
of deep convection now nearly surrounds Leslie's large ragged eye.
A pair of ASCAT passes from this morning showed maximum winds around
55 kt. Based on that data and a blend of the latest Dvorak
estimates, the initial intensity is increased to 60 kt. Leslie is
expected to remain over relatively warm water and in favorable
atmospheric conditions for another day or two, so continued gradual
strengthening is forecast during that time period. Based on the
improved organization this afternoon and the model guidance, Leslie
is forecast to reach hurricane strength tonight or early Wednesday.
After a couple of days, the system is expected to move over waters
cooler than 26 deg C, and those unfavorable oceanic conditions
combined with some increase in shear this weekend should cause a
slow weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast remains
between the aggressive statistical-dynamical models and the lower
HMON and COAMPS-TC models, but this forecast is a tad higher than
the previous one.

The tropical storm is still losing latitude, with the latest initial
motion now estimated to be 205/8. This south-southwestward
motion is expected to slow down tonight, and Leslie will likely come
to a stall on Wednesday in very weak steering currents. After that
time, the combination of a shortwave trough to the west and an
amplifying mid-level ridge to the southeast should cause
Leslie to move northward on Thursday and Friday. A turn to the
northeast and then east is forecast to occur by the weekend when the
storm moves within the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC track
forecast is nudged to the south and west of the previous one to come
into better agreement with the latest guidance.

Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to increase tomorrow
and Thursday across the southeastern coast of the United States,
Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles. These
swells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New England
and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week. Please consult products
from your local weather office as these conditions could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents.

The initial 34- and 50-kt wind radii have been modified based on
the aforementioned ASCAT data.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 30.1N 56.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 29.7N 56.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 29.5N 56.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 30.7N 56.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 32.6N 56.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 36.3N 56.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 37.2N 54.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 37.0N 51.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-10-02 21:32

WTNT33 KNHC 022034
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 PM AST Tue Oct 02 2018

...LESLIE ALMOST A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 56.4W
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 205 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 30.1 North, longitude 56.4 West. Leslie is
moving toward the south-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through early
Wednesday. A turn to the north is forecast to occur late
Wednesday into Thursday, followed by a motion toward the
north-northeast on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the
next day or two, and Leslie is forecast to become a hurricane
tonight or early Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect
portions of the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda,
and the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are expected to
increase near the coasts of New England and Atlantic Canada by the
end of the week. Please consult products from your local weather
office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip
currents.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-10-02 21:32

WTNT23 KNHC 022034
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
2100 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 56.4W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 205 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 0SW 80NW.
34 KT.......140NE 100SE 160SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 210SE 420SW 540NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 56.4W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 56.2W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 29.7N 56.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 150SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 29.5N 56.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 30.7N 56.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 32.6N 56.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 36.3N 56.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 190SE 180SW 170NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 37.2N 54.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 37.0N 51.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.1N 56.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-10-02 15:47

WTNT43 KNHC 021433
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 02 2018

Leslie has generally changed little during the past several hours.
The storm continues to have a ragged banded eye feature with
multiple mesovortices within it. Deep convection is most organized
in a curved band that currently wraps from the northeast to
southwest quadrant of the storm. The initial intensity is held at
55 kt, which is near the high end of the satellite estimates.
Although the storm has not strengthened much during the past day or
so, it still has an opportunity to intensify while it moves over
slightly higher SSTs and remains in favorable atmospheric conditions
during the next day or two. Beyond a couple of days, slow weakening
seems likely as Leslie heads over SSTs cooler than 26 deg C and into
a slightly drier environment. The NHC intensity forecast is the
same as the previous one, and it is in good agreement with the HCCA
and IVCN consensus aids. This intensity forecast lies between the
aggressive statistical-dynamical models and the lower HMON and
COAMPS-TC models that keep Leslie below hurricane strength.

The tropical storm continues to lose latitude, with the latest
initial motion estimate being 215/7. A continued slow south to
south-southwest motion is forecast during the next 24 hours as the
system moves in the flow on the east side of a mid-level high.
After that time, the combination of a shortwave trough to the west
and an amplifying mid-level ridge to the southeast should cause
Leslie to move northward to north-northeastward late this week. By
the weekend, the models suggest that Leslie should turn eastward
when it moves in the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC track
forecast is nudged to the west to come into better agreement with
the latest models.

Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to increase tomorrow
and Thursday across the southeastern coast of the United States,
Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles. These
swells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New England
and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week. Please consult products
from your local weather office as these conditions could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 30.9N 56.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 30.1N 56.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 29.8N 56.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 30.5N 56.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 31.9N 56.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 35.9N 56.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 37.6N 54.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 37.3N 50.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-10-02 15:47

WTNT33 KNHC 021433
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 02 2018

...LESLIE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 56.1W
ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 215 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 56.1 West. Leslie is
moving toward the southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A slow
south-southwestward or southward motion is expected through
Wednesday. A turn to the north is forecast to occur late
Wednesday into Thursday, followed by a motion toward the
north-northeast on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next day or
two, and Leslie is forecast to become a hurricane tonight or on
Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect
portions of the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda,
and the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are expected to
increase near the coasts of New England and Atlantic Canada by the
end of the week. Please consult products from your local weather
office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip
currents.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-10-02 15:47

WTNT23 KNHC 021432
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
1500 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 56.1W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 215 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......140NE 110SE 80SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 210SE 420SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 56.1W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 55.9W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 30.1N 56.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 29.8N 56.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 30.5N 56.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 31.9N 56.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 140SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 35.9N 56.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 140SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 37.6N 54.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 37.3N 50.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.9N 56.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-10-02 09:32

WTNT43 KNHC 020852
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 AM AST Tue Oct 02 2018

Infrared and passive microwave satellite imagery indicate that
convection has increased and become better organized around the
well-defined low-level circulation center. In fact, recent
microwave images showed that Leslie has developed a closed, 20- to
25-nmi wide low-level eye. Based on the presence of the distinct
low-level eye feature and a Dvorak intensity estimate of T3.5/55 kt
from SAB, the cyclone's intensity has been increased to 55 kt.

The initial motion is southwestward or 220 degrees at a faster
forward speed of 6 kt. For the next 24 h or so, Leslie is forecast
to move slowly southwestward to south-southwestward, trapped between
a deep-layer ridge to the west and a mid- to upper-level low to the
east. After possibly becoming stationary near the 36-h period, a
ridge to the southeast and east of Leslie is forecast to become
highly amplified, forcing the cyclone northward into the higher
latitudes through 72 h. On days 4 and 5, an approaching mid-latitude
shortwave trough well to the north of Leslie is forecast to nudge
the cyclone eastward, but only slowly at forward speeds of less than
10 kt. The new NHC forecast track has again been adjusted to the
left of the previous advisory track in the 36- to 72-h period, and
is similar to but slightly east of the various consensus models.

Leslie's outflow pattern has become a little more symmetrical during
the past 6 h, and further improvement is expected through 72 hours.
In addition, lightning data and satellite imagery during the past
few hours indicate that convection has been developing in the dry
slot to the north and east of the main convective band, suggesting
the mid-level environment is finally beginning to moisten. This dry
intrusion has been hindering the development of deep eyewall
convection and, thus, the lack of intensification of the cyclone.
However, given the strong instability that is forecast to develop in
the inner-core region region due to very cold air aloft moving over
relatively warm waters of near 26C beneath the cyclone, along with
increasing outflow and mid-level moisture, slow but steady
strengthening seems reasonable for the next 48 hours or so. By 72 h
and beyond, gradual weakening is expected as Leslie moves back over
cooler oceanic temperatures and dry mid-level air from the
mid-latitudes associated with the aforementioned shortwave trough
once again gets entrained into the cyclone's circulation. The
official intensity forecast is just an update of the previous
advisory, and is similar to the weaker IVCN consensus model.

Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect portions of
the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, and the
Bahamas. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and
rip currents. Although the swells are forecast to abate temporarily
in the Bahamas later today, they are expected to increase again on
Wednesday and Thursday, and propagate farther southward into the
Greater and Lesser Antilles. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 31.6N 55.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 30.6N 56.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 29.9N 56.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 30.2N 56.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 31.3N 56.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 35.0N 56.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 37.1N 54.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 37.1N 51.9W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-02 09:32

WTNT33 KNHC 020851
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 AM AST Tue Oct 02 2018

...LESLIE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY WHILE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.6N 55.6W
ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 31.6 North, longitude 55.6 West. Leslie is
moving toward the southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slow
southwestward or south-southwestward motion is expected through
Wednesday morning. A turn to the north is forecast to occur late
Wednesday into Thursday, followed by a motion toward the
north-northeast on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours,
and Leslie is forecast to become a hurricane by Wednesday morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect
portions of the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda,
and the Bahamas. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and
rip currents. Although the swells are forecast to abate temporarily
in the Bahamas later today, they are expected to increase again on
Wednesday and Thursday and propagate farther southward into the
Greater and Lesser Antilles. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-02 09:32

WTNT23 KNHC 020851
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
0900 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 55.6W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......140NE 110SE 80SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 180SE 450SW 540NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 55.6W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 55.4W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 30.6N 56.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 29.9N 56.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 30.2N 56.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 31.3N 56.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 140SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 35.0N 56.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 140SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 37.1N 54.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 37.1N 51.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.6N 55.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

2018-10-02 03:32

WTNT43 KNHC 020242
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 PM AST Mon Oct 01 2018

Satellite imagery shows that the convective organization of Leslie
has changed little during the past several hours. The eye-like
feature, however, has become a little more distinct and symmetric.
The subjective and objective intensity estimates haven't changed
though, and the initial intensity remains at 50 kt for this
advisory.

The initial motion is estimated to be a southwestward drift, or
220/4 kt. Leslie is forecast to continue drifting generally
southwestward through the 36-hour period in relatively weak
mid-tropospheric steering flow produced by a ridge extending
eastward from the southeast United States to near Bermuda.
Afterwards, an amplifying mid-latitude shortwave trough approaching
the cyclone from the Canadian Maritimes should induce a
north-northeastward to northeastward motion at an increasing forward
speed. The NHC forecast is adjusted just to the left of the
previous forecast track beyond 36 hours to align more with the TVCN
consensus guidance.

The intensity forecast philosophy remains basically the same, this
evening. Strengthening is still expected during the next 36 hours
and Leslie is likely to become a hurricane Tuesday tonight, as
indicated by the statistical and multi-model intensity guidance.
Near the 72-hour period, Leslie should begin a gradual weakening
trend as the cyclone moves back over cooler oceanic temperatures
and some invading drier mid-level air, associated with the
aforementioned shortwave trough which stabilizes the surrounding
environment. The official intensity forecast is an update of the
previous one and is close to the IVCN and NOAA-HCCA consensus aids.
The forecast wind radii have been adjusted based on the RVCN
(GFS/ECMWF/HWRF) multi-model consensus.

Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect portions of
the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, and the
Bahamas. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and
rip currents. Although the swells are forecast to abate temporarily
in the Bahamas Tuesday, they are expected to increase again
Wednesday and Thursday and propagate farther southward into the
Greater and Lesser Antilles. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 32.4N 55.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 31.3N 55.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 30.2N 56.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 29.9N 56.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 30.6N 56.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 34.4N 55.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 37.0N 55.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 37.3N 52.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-10-02 03:32

WTNT33 KNHC 020241
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 PM AST Mon Oct 01 2018

...LESLIE DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...NO
CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.4N 55.0W
ABOUT 570 MI...920 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 32.4 North, longitude 55.0 West. Leslie is
moving toward the southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a slow
southwestward or south-southwestward motion is expected through
Wednesday. A turn to the north-northeast is forecast to occur
by Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and
Leslie is likely to become a hurricane Tuesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect
portions of the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda,
and the Bahamas. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and
rip currents. Although the swells are forecast to abate temporarily
in the Bahamas Tuesday, they are expected to increase again
Wednesday and Thursday and propagate farther southward into the
Greater and Lesser Antilles. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-10-02 03:32

WTNT23 KNHC 020241
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
0300 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 55.0W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......140NE 110SE 80SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 180SE 420SW 540NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 55.0W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 54.8W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 31.3N 55.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 10SE 20SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 30.2N 56.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 29.9N 56.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 30.6N 56.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 140SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 34.4N 55.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 140SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 37.0N 55.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 37.3N 52.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.4N 55.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

2018-10-01 21:49

WTNT43 KNHC 012036
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 PM AST Mon Oct 01 2018

The cloud pattern of Leslie has improved throughout the day, and
the system now has a ragged eye with multiple mesovorticies within
it. In addition, the associated convection has become more
symmetric this afternoon, but the cloud tops are not very cold south
of the center. Even though the system looks better organized, the
satellite intensity estimates are again unchanged. Accordingly, the
initial intensity is held at 50 kt near the high end of the
satellite estimates.

Leslie will likely strengthen gradually during the next day or
so as it heads toward slightly warmer SSTs and remains in relatively
low wind shear conditions. Most of the models show Leslie
becoming a hurricane on Tuesday, and the NHC forecast follows that
guidance. Leslie is expected to move north-northeastward back over
its own upwelled cool waters late this week and this weekend,
which should promote a gradual weakening trend. The NHC intensity
forecast is identical to the previous one and in line with the HCCA
and IVCN models.

Leslie continues to drift to the southwest on the east side of a
mid-level high. There has been no change to the track forecast
philosophy. Leslie is expected to continue to move slowly southward
to southwestward in weak steering currents during the next couple of
days. Thereafter, a developing shortwave trough to the west of
Leslie should cause it to move north-northeastward to northeastward
at a slightly faster pace. The guidance has shifted south and west
this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted in those
directions. Regardless of the details of the forecast track, there
is high confidence that Leslie will meander for quite a while over
the central Atlantic.

Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect portions
of the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the
Bahamas, and most of the Greater and Lesser Antilles through
tonight. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
currents. Although the swells will diminish slightly by Tuesday,
they are expected to increase again over the Bahamas and most of the
Greater and Lesser Antilles late Wednesday and Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 32.8N 54.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 31.9N 55.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 30.9N 55.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 30.2N 56.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 30.0N 56.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 33.3N 55.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 36.4N 55.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 37.2N 52.8W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-10-01 21:49

WTNT33 KNHC 012036
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 PM AST Mon Oct 01 2018

...LESLIE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.8N 54.6W
ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 32.8 North, longitude 54.6 West. Leslie is
moving toward the southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a slow
southwestward or southward motion is forecast during the next
couple of days. A turn to the north-northeast is forecast to occur
by Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours,
and Leslie is forecast to become a hurricane on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Leslie will affect Bermuda, the Bahamas,
portions of the coast of the southeastern United States, and most of
the Greater and Lesser Antilles during the next few days. These
swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-10-01 21:49

WTNT23 KNHC 012035
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
2100 UTC MON OCT 01 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 54.6W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......140NE 110SE 80SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 180SE 300SW 540NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 54.6W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 54.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 31.9N 55.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 30.9N 55.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 30.2N 56.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 30.0N 56.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 33.3N 55.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 36.4N 55.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 37.2N 52.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.8N 54.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-10-01 15:37

WTNT43 KNHC 011431
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Mon Oct 01 2018

Leslie is gradually becoming better organized. A large band of
deep convection exists on the west side of the circulation and some
fragmented bands are beginning to form on the east side. Overall,
Leslie appears more symmetric than it has been during the past
couple of days due to a decrease in wind shear. Despite the
improved appearance, the satellite intensity estimates are largely
unchanged, so the initial intensity is held at 50 kt, near the high
end of the estimates.

Since Leslie is forecast to be in a low wind shear environment
and expected to move over slightly higher SSTs during the next
couple of days, slow strengthening is predicted. Most of
the models show Leslie becoming a hurricane in 24 to 36 hours, and
the NHC forecast follows suit. By late in the week and this
weekend, Leslie is expected to move north-northeastward back over
its previous track, where it has upwelled cooler waters. These less
conducive oceanic conditions should cause a slow decay.

Leslie continues to drift to the southwest on the east side of a
mid-level high, and a continued slow south to southwest motion
is expected during the next couple of days. Thereafter, a
developing shortwave trough to the west of Leslie should cause it to
move north-northeastward but only at a slightly faster pace. The
NHC track forecast is nudged to the left of the previous one to come
into better agreement with the latest guidance. Regardless of the
details of the forecast track, there is high confidence that Leslie
will meander for quite a while over the central Atlantic.

Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect portions
of the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the
Bahamas, and most of the Greater and Lesser Antilles through
tonight. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
currents. Although the swells will diminish slightly by Tuesday,
they are expected to increase again over the Bahamas and most of the
Greater and Lesser Antilles late Wednesday and Thursday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 33.2N 54.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 32.7N 54.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 31.6N 55.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 30.7N 55.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 30.4N 56.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 32.5N 55.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 35.7N 54.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 37.4N 52.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-10-01 15:37

WTNT33 KNHC 011431
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Mon Oct 01 2018

...LESLIE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.2N 54.3W
ABOUT 615 MI...985 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 33.2 North, longitude 54.3 West. Leslie is
moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow
southwestward or southward motion is forecast during the next few
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and
Leslie is forecast to become a hurricane on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Leslie will affect Bermuda, the Bahamas,
portions of the coast of the southeastern United States, and most of
the Greater and Lesser Antilles during the next few days. These
swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-10-01 15:37

WTNT23 KNHC 011430
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
1500 UTC MON OCT 01 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 54.3W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......140NE 110SE 80SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 300SW 540NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 54.3W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 54.1W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 32.7N 54.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 31.6N 55.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 130SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 30.7N 55.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 30.4N 56.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 32.5N 55.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 140SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 35.7N 54.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 37.4N 52.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.2N 54.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-10-01 09:33

WTNT43 KNHC 010853
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 AM AST Mon Oct 01 2018

Leslie has become a little better organized overnight, with an
increase in convective banding over the northern and northwestern
portions of the circulation. ASCAT data around 0000 UTC revealed
40-45 kt winds over the northeastern quadrant of the cyclone and
with the increase in organization since that time, the initial
intensity has been raised to 50 kt. This is a little above the
consensus Dvorak intensity estimates of T3.0 (45 kt) from TAFB and
SAB. The shear that was affecting Leslie appears to have abated
somewhat and with the system forecast to move southwestward toward
slightly warmer waters, gradual strengthening is expected during the
next couple of days. Later in the period, Leslie is forecast to
move north-northeastward back over its previous track where cooler
upwelled waters are likely to produce some weakening. The updated
NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly higher peak intensity in 48
to 72 hours, but remains between the dynamical model guidance and
the higher statistical models.

Leslie continues to plod along with an initial motion estimate of
240/4 kt. The cyclone should move slowly southwestward to southward
during the next couple of days as it remains within an area of weak
steering currents. After that time, a shortwave trough to the
northwest of Leslie is expected to allow the tropical cyclone to
lift slowly north-northeastward by days 4 and 5. Although the
dynamical model guidance is in agreement on this overall scenario,
there is increasing cross-track (east-west) spread after 72 hours.
The latest run of the ECMWF has shifted westward and brackets the
western edge of the guidance envelope. The new NHC track forecast
has been shifted in that direction, but it is not as far left as the
various consensus aids out of respect of the previous track
forecast. Regardless of the details of the forecast track, Leslie
is still expected to meander over the central Atlantic through the
remainder of this week.

Large swells generated by Leslie when it was a strong extratropical
low will continue to affect portions of the southeastern coast of
the United States, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and most of the Greater and
Lesser Antilles for another day or two. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Although the swells will
diminish some by mid-week, they will likely remain hazardous for the
same locations through the forecast period due to Leslie's slow
motion.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 33.4N 53.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 33.1N 54.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 32.2N 55.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 31.2N 55.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 30.6N 56.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 31.7N 55.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 35.0N 54.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 37.4N 52.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-01 09:33

WTNT33 KNHC 010852
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 AM AST Mon Oct 01 2018

...LESLIE STRENGTHENS WHILE MEANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.4N 53.9W
ABOUT 635 MI...1025 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 33.4 North, longitude 53.9 West. Leslie is
moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow
southwestward or southward motion is forecast during the next few
days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional gradual strengthening is expected
during the next 48 hours, and Leslie is forecast to become a
hurricane on Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Leslie will affect Bermuda, the Bahamas,
portions of the coast of the southeastern United States, and most of
the Greater and Lesser Antilles during the next few days. These
swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-01 09:33

WTNT23 KNHC 010852
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
0900 UTC MON OCT 01 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 53.9W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......140NE 110SE 80SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 240SE 300SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 53.9W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 53.7W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 33.1N 54.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 32.2N 55.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 40SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 130SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 31.2N 55.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 130SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 30.6N 56.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 130SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 31.7N 55.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 140SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 35.0N 54.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 37.4N 52.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.4N 53.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

2018-10-01 03:32

WTNT43 KNHC 010252
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 30 2018

Leslie has changed little in organization over the past few hours,
with the convective burst previously in the southeastern quadrant
now in the northeastern quadrant. Recent scatterometer data
indicates that the current intensity is 45 kt, with those winds
occurring in the northeastern semicircle. The scatterometer data
also suggests that the radii of tropical-storm force winds has
decreased a little. While Leslie continues to be affected by
westerly shear, the global models show the upper-level pattern
becoming more favorable over Leslie in about a day. This, combined
with slightly warmer SSTs along the forecast track should allow
Leslie to gradually strengthen during the next 2 to 3 days. After
that time, the storm is expected to move northeastward back over its
previous track and cooler waters partly caused by its own upwelling,
and that should cause at least a little weakening. The new
intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast, and it
lies above the forecast of the regional hurricane models and below
the forecast of the statistical-dynamical models.

The initial motion is 250/5. Leslie is forecast to remain in weak
steering currents for the next 72 h, with a southwestward to
southward drift expected. Thereafter, a shortwave trough moving
southward to the west of Leslie should cause a motion toward the
north-northeast or northeast and an increase in forward speed.
There are no important changes to the guidance or to the forecast
track, and the bottom line remains that Leslie is forecast to
meander over the central Atlantic for the next several days.

Large swells generated by Leslie when it was a strong extratropical
low will continue to affect the east coast of the United States and
most of the Greater and Lesser Antilles for another day or two.
These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
Although the swells will diminish some by mid-week, they will likely
remain hazardous for the same locations through the forecast period
due to Leslie's slow motion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 33.3N 53.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 33.0N 54.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 32.4N 54.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 31.5N 55.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 30.8N 55.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 31.0N 55.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 34.0N 54.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 37.0N 52.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-10-01 03:32

WTNT33 KNHC 010251
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 30 2018

...LESLIE CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH AS IT MOVES
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR MANY DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.3N 53.7W
ABOUT 650 MI...1040 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 33.3 North, longitude 53.7 West. Leslie is
moving toward the west-southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slow
southwestward or southward motion is forecast during the next few
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours,
and Leslie may become a hurricane in two to three days time.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Leslie will affect Bermuda, the east
coast of the United States, and most of the Greater and Lesser
Antilles during the next day or two. These swells will likely
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-10-01 03:32

WTNT23 KNHC 010251
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
0300 UTC MON OCT 01 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 53.7W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 120SE 80SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 240SE 240SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 53.7W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 53.5W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 33.0N 54.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 32.4N 54.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 31.5N 55.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 30.8N 55.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 130SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 31.0N 55.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 130SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 34.0N 54.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 37.0N 52.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.3N 53.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-09-30 21:32

WTNT43 KNHC 302038
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 PM AST Sun Sep 30 2018

Leslie has generally changed little in organization today. The
tropical storm continues to produce deep convection in a band to
the southeast of the center, but there is a minimal amount of
shower activity elsewhere. This asymmetric cloud pattern is due to
about 25 kt of northwesterly wind shear. The initial intensity is
again held at 45 kt, but some of the satellite estimates suggest
that this could be a little generous. The global models show the
upper-level pattern becoming more favorable over Leslie in about a
day, which combined with warmer SSTs should allow Leslie to
gradually strengthen during the next 2 to 3 days. After that time,
the storm is expected to move northeastward back over its previous
track and cooler waters partly caused by its own upwelling. These
conditions should end the strengthening trend and induce some
weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the
previous one and in line with the IVCN, FSSE, and HCCA consensus
models.

Leslie is drifting to the southwest, with the latest initial motion
estimate being 240/4 kt. The storm is forecast to remain in very
weak steering currents, and Leslie will likely drift southward to
southwestward during the next few days on the east side of a
mid-level ridge. Thereafter, a developing trough to the southwest of
Leslie should cause the system to move northeastward at a slightly
faster pace. The models continue to shift back and forth each
cycle, which is not surprising given the weak steering. This
forecast is adjusted a little to the left of the previous one to
come into better agreement with the latest models. The bottom line
is that Leslie is forecast to meander over the central Atlantic for
the next several days.

Large swells generated by Leslie when it was a strong extratropical
low will continue to affect the east coast of the United States and
most of the Greater and Lesser Antilles for another day or two.
These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
Although the swells will diminish some by mid-week, they will likely
remain hazardous for the same locations through the forecast period
due to Leslie's slow motion.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 33.5N 53.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 33.3N 53.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 32.9N 54.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 32.1N 55.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 31.3N 55.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 31.0N 54.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 33.5N 53.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 36.5N 52.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-09-30 21:32

WTNT33 KNHC 302037
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 PM AST Sun Sep 30 2018

...LESLIE CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH...
...EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR MANY DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.5N 53.2W
ABOUT 675 MI...1090 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 33.5 North, longitude 53.2 West. Leslie is
moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow
southwestward or southward motion is forecast during the next few
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Leslie will affect Bermuda, the east
coast of the United States, and most of the Greater and Lesser
Antilles during the next day or two. These swells will likely
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-09-30 21:32

WTNT23 KNHC 302037
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
2100 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 53.2W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......180NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 240SE 240SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 53.2W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 53.0W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 33.3N 53.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 32.9N 54.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 32.1N 55.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 31.3N 55.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 130SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 31.0N 54.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 130SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 33.5N 53.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 36.5N 52.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.5N 53.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-09-30 15:32

WTNT43 KNHC 301433
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 30 2018

Deep convection has increased a little during the past several hours
in a band to the southeast of the center, but the shower activity
remains quite limited elsewhere in the circulation. The latest
satellite intensity estimates and a recent ASCAT pass still support
an initial intensity of 45 kt. Leslie is expected to be moving into
a lower wind shear environment and over warmer SSTs during the next
few days. These conditions should support some gradual
strengthening during that time period. After that time, however,
Leslie is expected to move over cooler waters, partly induced by its
own upwelling, as it heads northeastward back over its previous
track. Accordingly, slight weakening is shown toward the end of the
forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the
previous one and generally follows the consensus models, IVCN and
HCCA.

Leslie is drifting to the southwest, with the latest initial motion
estimate being 230/3 kt. Leslie is caught in very weak steering
currents, and a continued slow southwest to south motion is expected
during the next few days. Thereafter, the models show a weak
trough developing to the southwest of Leslie and that should cause
the system to move northeastward at a slightly faster pace. The
models have trended a little to the east this cycle, and the NHC
forecast has been adjusted in that direction. The bottom line is
that Leslie is forecast to meander over the central Atlantic
through the forecast period.

Large swells generated by Leslie when it was a strong extratropical
low will continue to affect Bermuda, the east coast of the United
States, and most of the Greater and Lesser Antilles for another day
or two. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
currents. Although the swells will diminish some by mid-week, they
will likely remain hazardous for the same locations through the
forecast period due to Leslie's slow motion.

The initial 34-kt wind radii were adjusted based on a 1257 UTC
ASCAT pass.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 33.6N 52.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 33.2N 53.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 32.9N 53.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 32.3N 54.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 31.6N 54.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 30.8N 54.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 33.0N 52.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 36.0N 51.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-09-30 15:32

WTNT33 KNHC 301433
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 30 2018

...LESLIE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN WHILE IT MEANDERS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.6N 52.6W
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 52.6 West. Leslie is
moving toward the southwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow
southwestward or southward motion is forecast during the next few
days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 72
hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Leslie will affect Bermuda, the east
coast of the United States, and most of the Greater and Lesser
Antilles during the next couple of days. These swells will likely
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-09-30 15:32

WTNT23 KNHC 301432
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
1500 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 52.6W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 230 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......180NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 240SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 52.6W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 52.4W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 33.2N 53.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 32.9N 53.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 32.3N 54.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 31.6N 54.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 150SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 30.8N 54.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 150SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 33.0N 52.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 36.0N 51.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.6N 52.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-09-30 09:31

WTNT43 KNHC 300855
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 AM AST Sun Sep 30 2018

Convection associated with the tropical storm has become more
fragmented over the past 12 hours or so, and now consists of several
broken bands primarily over the southeastern portion of the
circulation. Satellite intensity estimates have not changed much
since the previous advisory, and the initial intensity is held at
45 kt, which is in agreement with earlier ASCAT data and a recent
UW/CIMSS SATCON estimate of 42 kt. The recent warming of the clouds
tops may be associated with cooler waters caused by upwelling
beneath the large, slow-moving tropical storm. Leslie, however is
forecast to move southwestward toward somewhat warmer waters and a
more favorable upper-level environment during the next 2 to 3 days.
This conditions should allow for gradual strengthening, and the NHC
forecast follows the intensity guidance by bringing Leslie to
hurricane strength in about 72 hours. Later in the period, Leslie
is likely to move back over some of the cooler upwelled waters along
its previous track, which could result in gradual weakening.

Recent satellite fixes show that Leslie is moving west-
southwestward or 240 degrees at 4 kt. The tropical storm is caught
between a pair of mid-level ridges and a slow southwestward to
south-southwestward motion is expected over the next 2 to 3 days.
Around mid-week, a shortwave trough moving off the coast of the
northeastern United States is expected to help lift Leslie slowly
northward at days 4 and 5, but the models have trended toward a
somewhat slower solution. Despite the storm's expected slow motion,
the spread in the track guidance becomes fairly large by days 4 and
5, and it appears that Leslie is likely to meander over the Central
Atlantic for quite some time.

Large swells generated by Leslie when it was a strong extratropical
low will affect Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and
most of the Greater and Lesser Antilles through at least the early
part of this week. These swells could cause life-threatening surf
and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 33.8N 52.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 33.4N 53.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 32.9N 53.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 32.5N 54.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 31.9N 54.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 30.7N 54.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 32.4N 54.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 35.5N 53.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-09-30 09:31

WTNT33 KNHC 300852
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 AM AST Sun Sep 30 2018

...LESLIE EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR
MUCH OF THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.8N 52.5W
ABOUT 720 MI...1155 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 33.8 North, longitude 52.5 West. Leslie is
moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow
southwestward or south-southwestward motion is forecast for the
next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Leslie will affect Bermuda, the east
coast of the United States, and most of the Greater and Lesser
Antilles during the next day or two. These swells will likely cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-09-30 09:31

WTNT23 KNHC 300852
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
0900 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 52.5W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......180NE 150SE 100SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 240SE 360SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 52.5W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 52.3W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 33.4N 53.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 32.9N 53.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 32.5N 54.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 31.9N 54.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 120SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 30.7N 54.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 150SW 210NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 32.4N 54.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 35.5N 53.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.8N 52.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

2018-09-30 03:32

WTNT43 KNHC 300243
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 29 2018

The structure of Leslie consists of a large, broken outer band
wrapped around the eastern semicircle of the cyclone, with little
convection west of the center. ASCAT data recently showed 40-45 kt
within that band, so the maximum winds will stay at 45 kt. The
storm should gradually move over somewhat warmer waters within a
lighter shear environment during the next few days. Thus gradual
intensification is shown, similar to the model consensus. The only
notable change to the previous forecast is to move up the peak
intensity close to Leslie's southernmost position before it stalls.
It would seem that after that time, the relatively large system
would be moving close to its previous track over its self-generated
cooler upwelled waters, and weaken somewhat at long range.

Leslie continues to move southwestward, and its initial motion is
235/5 kt. This storm should move slowly to the southwest through
Sunday, then creep southward by late Monday due to steering
partially by northerly flow from a distant ridge over the western
Atlantic and a nearby large mid- to upper-level trough. Eventually,
a new ridge rebuilds over the east-central Atlantic east of Leslie,
which causes the cyclone to move to the north at a faster pace by
day 5. As you could imagine in such a complex pattern, the models
aren't in good agreement on how quickly the storm ejects, and this
is a pretty uncertain forecast at long range. Until some forecast
scenarios become clear, the forecast will stay close to the
corrected-consensus aids, resulting in mostly cosmetic changes to
the last forecast.

Large swells generated by Leslie when it was a strong extratropical
low will affect Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and
most of the Greater and Lesser Antilles through at least the
weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 33.9N 52.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 33.4N 52.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 33.0N 53.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 32.6N 53.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 32.2N 54.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 31.0N 54.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 31.7N 54.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 34.5N 53.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-30 03:32

WTNT33 KNHC 300241
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 29 2018

...LESLIE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 52.0W
ABOUT 750 MI...1205 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 52.0 West. Leslie is
moving toward the southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slow southwest
or south-southwest track is forecast for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 72
hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Leslie will affect Bermuda, the east
coast of the United States, and most of the Greater and Lesser
Antilles through the weekend. These swells will likely cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-30 03:32

WTNT23 KNHC 300240
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
0300 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 52.0W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......200NE 150SE 100SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 240SE 420SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 52.0W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 51.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 33.4N 52.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 140SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 33.0N 53.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 32.6N 53.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 32.2N 54.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 120SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 31.0N 54.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 150SW 240NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 31.7N 54.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 34.5N 53.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.9N 52.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-09-29 21:32

WTNT43 KNHC 292033
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 PM AST Sat Sep 29 2018

Leslie has continued to take on more tropical characteristics over
the past few hours. Anti-cyclonic outflow is now present to the
northeast and southeast of Leslie and its primary convective band.
Late-arriving AMSU data from 1316 UTC also indicated that Leslie has
developed a deep-layer warm core structure. Based on these factors,
Leslie has been designated as a tropical storm. The initial
intensity is set at 45 kt, based on a blend of recent satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and the UW-CIMSS SATCON.

Leslie continues to move slowly southwestward with an initial motion
of 225/5 kt. The guidance is in very good agreement that this
general motion will continue for another 24 h or so, before the
cyclone becomes nearly stationary by early next week. An approaching
mid-latitude trough is still expected to eventually cause Leslie to
turn toward the north or northeast, perhaps over its own track, in 4
or 5 days. Only minor adjustments were made to the NHC track
forecast, which remains close to the various track consensus aids.

The NHC intensity forecast has not been changed in any significant
way and remains near the intensity consensus, but slightly favors
the regional hurricane models. Leslie is currently located over
fairly cool SSTs, and its slow motion could cause further ocean
cooling. This could particularly be an issue in a few days when the
tropical storm is expected to become nearly stationary. The
ocean-coupled regional models (HWRF, HMON, COAMPS-TC) continue to
indicate that Leslie will struggle to intensify much over the next
few days, despite a fairly favorable upper-level environment. On the
other hand, some of the uncoupled global models and the SHIPS and
LGEM models suggest that more intensification will occur and that
Leslie could become a hurricane in a few days. Highlighting the
potential importance of SSTs in this case, the SHIPS and LGEM models
began using daily SST fields at 18Z, which show nearly 2 deg C
cooler SSTs along the track of Leslie, and those models now show
much less intensification than they did before.

Large swells generated by Leslie when it was a strong extratropical
low will affect Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and
most of the Greater and Lesser Antilles through the weekend. These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 34.1N 51.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 33.6N 52.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 33.1N 53.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 32.8N 53.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 32.5N 53.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 31.5N 54.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 31.5N 54.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 34.0N 54.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-09-29 21:32

WTNT33 KNHC 292032
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 PM AST Sat Sep 29 2018

...LESLIE BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.1N 51.3W
ABOUT 790 MI...1270 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1380 MI...2220 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 225 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 34.1 North, longitude 51.3 West. Leslie is
moving toward the southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Sunday. A slower forward
motion is anticipated by Sunday night, and Leslie is forecast to
move very little on Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is possible over the
next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Leslie will affect Bermuda, the east
coast of the United States, and most of the Greater and Lesser
Antilles through the weekend. These swells will likely cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-09-29 21:32

WTNT23 KNHC 292031
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
2100 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 51.3W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 225 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......200NE 150SE 100SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 240SE 420SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 51.3W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 51.1W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 33.6N 52.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 33.1N 53.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 32.8N 53.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 32.5N 53.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 31.5N 54.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 170SW 230NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 31.5N 54.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 34.0N 54.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.1N 51.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-09-29 15:32

WTNT43 KNHC 291446
TCDAT3

Subtropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 29 2018

Leslie's cloud pattern has taken on a more tropical appearance
since last night. However, the cyclone is still co-located with an
upper-level low, so its status as a subtropical cyclone is
maintained for this advisory. The initial intensity remains 40 kt,
based on a subtropical classification of 35-40 kt from TAFB.

The global models forecast that Leslie will separate from the
upper-level low over the course of the next day or so, which should
complete its transition to a tropical cyclone. While this could
result in a short-term increase in shear over Leslie, by early next
week the cyclone will likely be located within a fairly low shear
environment. However, Leslie is expected to move very slowly by that
time, and ocean upwelling could limit or prevent further
strengthening. There is a large amount of spread in the intensity
guidance by day 5, but it is worth noting that the models most
capable of properly representing the effect of ocean cooling on
intensity, COAMPS-TC, HWRF, and HMON, all keep Leslie below
hurricane strength for the next 5 days. The HWRF in particular
forecasts nearly 5 deg C of ocean cooling beneath the cyclone. The
NHC intensity forecast is generally a little lower than the previous
advisory, but is still near the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids at all
forecast hours. If Leslie moves more than expected, it would not be
surprising if it strengthened more than currently forecast.

Little change was made to the official track forecast. Leslie is
still expected to move slowly southwestward for the next couple of
days, before coming to a near halt early next week. By the
middle of the week, an approaching mid-latitude trough could steer
Leslie toward the north or northeast and allow the cyclone to start
gaining speed, however, there is a lot of spread among the global
models as to how quickly this will occur, and confidence in this
portion of the forecast is fairly low.

Large swells generated by Leslie when it was a strong extratropical
low will affect Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and
most of the Greater and Lesser Antilles through the weekend. These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 34.4N 50.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 33.8N 51.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 33.3N 52.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 33.1N 53.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H 01/1200Z 32.8N 54.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 31.6N 55.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 31.0N 55.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 33.0N 55.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-09-29 15:32

WTNT33 KNHC 291445
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 29 2018

...LESLIE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.4N 50.8W
ABOUT 820 MI...1320 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1345 MI...2165 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 225 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Leslie
was located near latitude 34.4 North, longitude 50.8 West. The storm
is moving toward the southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through today. Leslie is
then forecast to slowly meander over the central Atlantic through
early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is expected, and Leslie could transition
into a tropical cyclone during the couple of days.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Leslie will affect Bermuda, the east
coast of the United States, and most of the Greater and Lesser
Antilles through the weekend. These swells will likely cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-09-29 15:32

WTNT23 KNHC 291445
TCMAT3

SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
1500 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 50.8W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 225 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......220NE 150SE 150SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 300SE 540SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 50.8W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 50.7W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 33.8N 51.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 150SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 33.3N 52.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 33.1N 53.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 32.8N 54.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 31.6N 55.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 150SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 31.0N 55.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 33.0N 55.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.4N 50.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-09-29 09:32

WTNT43 KNHC 290832
TCDAT3

Subtropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 AM AST Sat Sep 29 2018

The deep convection has become more concentrated near the center
during the past several hours indicating that Leslie is gradually
acquiring some tropical characteristics, but the cyclone is still
too attached to a complex deep-layer low. On this basis, Leslie is
still considered a subtropical storm in this advisory with an
initial intensity of 40 kt. Global models indicate that the
subtropical cyclone will continue to be embedded within strong
northerly shear during the next 2 days or so. After that time, the
shear is forecast to relax and with a warm ocean along the cyclone's
path, Leslie is forecast to become fully tropical and reach
hurricane status by the end of the forecast period. SHIPS model and
its derivatives strengthen Leslie significantly, but the NHC
forecast is a little less aggressive, and it follows the intensity
consensus.

Leslie has been moving toward the southwest or 230 degrees at 6 kt,
steered by the flow around the western side of the large deep-layer
low in which Leslie is embedded. Since this steering pattern is
not expected to change, Leslie will probably continue on the same
general track for the next 3 to 4 days. After that time, the large
low weakens and the cyclone will become steered slowly northward by
the flow ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough. Nevertheless,
Leslie is forecast to meander over the north-central Atlantic for
several more days. This is the solution provided by most of the
global models, and the NHC forecast follows very closely the
multi-model consensus aids and the corrected consensus HCCA.

Large swells previously generated by Leslie when it was a stronger
extratropical low have already reached Bermuda, and will soon reach
the Lesser and Greater Antilles. These swells are expected to reach
portions of the east coast of the United States by Sunday. These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 35.2N 50.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 34.4N 51.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 33.8N 52.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 33.5N 53.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 33.2N 54.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H 02/0600Z 32.3N 55.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 31.0N 55.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 04/0600Z 32.0N 56.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-09-29 09:32

WTNT33 KNHC 290832
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 AM AST Sat Sep 29 2018

...LESLIE EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR A
FEW MORE DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.2N 50.3W
ABOUT 855 MI...1375 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1300 MI...2095 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 35.2 North, longitude 50.3 West. The storm is
moving toward the southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A general
southwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected
during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible, and Leslie could transition
into a tropical cyclone during the next few days.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Leslie are affecting Bermuda and the
northern Leeward Islands and will reach other portions of the Lesser
Antilles, Greater Antilles, and Bahamas through Saturday. Swells are
expected to reach portions of the east coast of the United States
by Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-09-29 09:32

WTNT23 KNHC 290832
TCMAT3

SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
0900 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.2N 50.3W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 230 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......220NE 150SE 150SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 360SE 720SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.2N 50.3W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 50.0W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 34.4N 51.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 150SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 33.8N 52.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 33.5N 53.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 33.2N 54.0W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 32.3N 55.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 31.0N 55.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 32.0N 56.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.2N 50.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-09-29 03:31

WTNT43 KNHC 290252
TCDAT3

Subtropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 28 2018

Convective banding has been consolidating to the south of Leslie's
center since the afternoon, but recent scatterometer data indicate
that the maximum winds have decreased to 40 kt and the area of
gale-force winds has decreased in size. The convective structure
suggests that Leslie may be taking on some tropical characteristics,
but since wave vapor imagery still shows the cyclone embedded within
a complex deep-layer low, Leslie is still being designated as
subtropical.

Leslie is moving west-southwestward, or 255 degrees at 10 kt.
Leslie is entrenched between several mid-tropospheric highs located
to its east and west, and these features are expected to push
Leslie slowly southwestward for the next 3 days. The track
guidance is tightly clustered during this period, and the NHC
forecast is very similar to the previous one. After day 3, Leslie
is likely to meander on days 4 and 5 in weak steering, and the
updated official forecast has been adjusted southward and eastward
at the end of the forecast period to account for the latest model
solutions.

Global model fields indicate that Leslie has migrated to the
northwest of its parent upper-level low, which is putting it under
a regime of moderate north-northeasterly shear. For the next 48
hours, this shear is expected to continue, and phase-space diagrams
suggest that Leslie will be straddling the line between shallow and
deep warm core. As a result, only modest strengthening is
anticipated during this period, and the official forecast maintains
Leslie as a subtropical storm through 48 hours. However, the
transition to a tropical storm could occur any time during the next
day or two. After 48 hours, Leslie should definitely be deep warm
core, and more significant strengthening is expected, with the
cyclone forecast to reach hurricane intensity by day 4. This
scenario is shown by the various intensity models, and the NHC
intensity forecast is very close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus
aid and the Florida State Superensemble. If the statistical-
dynamical models are correct, Leslie could be stronger by the end of
the forecast period than is indicated in the NHC forecast.

Large swells generated by Leslie when it was a stronger
extratropical low have already reached Bermuda, will soon reach the
Lesser and Greater Antilles, and should reach portions of the east
coast of the United States later this weekend. These swells could
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 35.7N 49.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 34.9N 50.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 34.0N 52.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 33.5N 53.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 33.1N 53.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 32.2N 55.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
96H 03/0000Z 30.5N 56.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 31.5N 56.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-09-29 03:31

WTNT33 KNHC 290251
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 28 2018

...LESLIE EXPECTED TO ROVE AROUND THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR
QUITE AWHILE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.7N 49.4W
ABOUT 910 MI...1465 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1245 MI...2005 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Leslie
was located near latitude 35.7 North, longitude 49.4 West. Leslie
is moving toward the west-southwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
slower west-southwestward or southwestward motion is expected
during the next several days.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is
forecast during the next several days.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Leslie are affecting Bermuda and the
northern Leeward Islands and will reach other portions of the Lesser
Antilles, Greater Antilles, and Bahamas through Saturday.
Swells are expected to reach portions of the east coast of the
United States later this weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-09-29 03:31

WTNT23 KNHC 290251
TCMAT3

SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
0300 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.7N 49.4W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......220NE 150SE 150SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 360SE 900SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.7N 49.4W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 48.9W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 34.9N 50.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 150SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 34.0N 52.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 33.5N 53.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 33.1N 53.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 32.2N 55.4W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 30.5N 56.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 31.5N 56.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.7N 49.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

2018-09-28 21:32

WTNT43 KNHC 282047
TCDAT3

Subtropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 PM AST Fri Sep 28 2018

Central convection associated with Post-Tropical Storm Leslie has
gradually increased during the last couple of days and is now
organized into a group of bands that wraps most of the way around
the center. In addition, scatterometer data show that the cyclone
has lost much of its large baroclinic wind field, and that the
radius of maximum winds has contracted from 120-180 n mi yesterday
to 90 n mi or less today. While the storm has also developed a warm
core and shed some of its baroclinic characteristics, it is embedded
in a large deep-layer low pressure system, and thus it is designated
subtropical instead of tropical. The initial intensity is set at 45
kt based on the scatterometer data.

Leslie has been moving generally westward for the the past few
days. The large-scale models forecast a general southwesterly
motion for the next 3-4 days as the cyclone is steered by a segment
of the subtropical ridge to its west and another large deep-layer
low forming to its east over the eastern Atlantic, with a decrease
in forward speed near the end of the forecast period as the ridge
to the west weakens. The forecast guidance is tightly clustered
through 120 h, and the forecast track is near the center of the
guidance envelope and the consensus models.

The forecast track takes the center of Leslie over increasing sea
surface temperatures during the next several days, although the
temperatures may not be as warm as those indicated in the SHIPS
model. The global models suggest that little change in strength
will occur during the first 48-72 h as Leslie gradually develops
the upper-level outflow pattern of a tropical cyclone and
transitions to a tropical storm. After that time, they are in good
agreement that the cyclone will strengthen. Based on this, the
intensity forecast shows only modest intensification during the
first 48 h, followed by strengthening to a probably conservative
60 kt. The forecast also calls for transition to a tropical storm
between 48-72 h, with the caveat that this could occur earlier.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 36.1N 48.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 35.4N 49.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 34.4N 51.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 33.8N 52.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 33.2N 53.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 32.5N 54.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
96H 02/1800Z 31.0N 56.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 03/1800Z 31.0N 57.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-09-28 21:32

WTNT33 KNHC 282046
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 PM AST Fri Sep 28 2018

...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LESLIE REGAINS SUBTROPICAL STORM STATUS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.1N 48.1W
ABOUT 1170 MI...1880 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 36.1 North, longitude 48.1 West. The storm is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A motion toward the
southwest is expected tonight through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of
days.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-09-28 21:32

WTNT23 KNHC 282045
TCMAT3

SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
2100 UTC FRI SEP 28 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 48.1W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......220NE 180SE 180SW 240NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 360SE 960SW 660NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 48.1W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 47.4W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 35.4N 49.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...220NE 180SE 180SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 34.4N 51.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 150SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 33.8N 52.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 33.2N 53.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 32.5N 54.5W...TROPICAL STORM
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 31.0N 56.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 31.0N 57.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.1N 48.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-09-25 15:32

WTNT43 KNHC 251439
TCDAT3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 25 2018

Leslie has become a post-tropical cyclone. Conventional and
microwave satellite imagery show that Leslie's surface circulation
has become elongated along an intruding baroclinic zone indicated
by a recent 1158 UTC ASCAT-A pass. Any deep convection appears to
be developing due to dynamic forcing. A rather large stratocumulus
cloud shield and associated cooler, stable air is quickly advecting
into the area as well. The initial intensity is maintained at 30 kt
for this last advisory.

Leslie is forecast to strengthen during the next couple of days due
to baroclinic processes. The official forecast, based on the GFS and
European global models, and the SHIPS statistical intensity
guidance, shows an increase of the sustained winds to hurricane
force in 2 days, around the same period that the shear drops below
10 kt. The non-tropical low is then forecast to move south of the
strong upper-level westerlies and detach from the frontal boundary.
According to the global models and the Florida State Cyclone Phase
forecast, Leslie should make a transition from a frontal system to
an asymmetric shallow warm-core seclusion. Beyond day 3, guidance
suggests that Leslie will acquire subtropical characteristics and a
more symmetric, deepening warm-core low while meandering in weaker
steering currents. The intensity forecast follows this scenario and
is based on the aforementioned global and statistical models.

Leslie is now moving eastward at a slightly faster forward motion,
about 10 kt. A turn to the north is expected in 36 hours followed
by a slower westward motion as Leslie slips south of the
mid-latitude westerlies. Through the remaining portion of the
forecast, Leslie should move at a slower speed generally westward
as a ridge builds to the north. NHC forecast is nudged toward the
TVCN consensus through 48 hours, then follows more closely to the
GFEX (GFS/ECMWF) consensus model.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on
Leslie. Additional information on this system can be found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web
at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 31.6N 44.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 26/0000Z 32.1N 42.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 26/1200Z 33.6N 40.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 27/0000Z 35.6N 39.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 27/1200Z 36.1N 41.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 28/1200Z 35.5N 45.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM
96H 29/1200Z 34.6N 48.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM
120H 30/1200Z 34.4N 49.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-09-25 15:32

WTNT33 KNHC 251516 CCA
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie Advisory Number 9...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 25 2018

Corrected Discussion and Outlook section

...LESLIE BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.6N 44.4W
ABOUT 1080 MI...1735 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Leslie was located near latitude 31.6 North, longitude 44.4 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east near 12 mph (19
km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday,
followed by a northward turn Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening as an extratropical cyclone is expected, and Leslie is
forecast to become a large and powerful post-tropical cyclone by
Wednesday with winds increasing to hurricane force on Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Leslie. Additional information can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header
NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at
https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-09-25 15:32

WTNT33 KNHC 251438
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 25 2018

...LESLIE BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.6N 44.4W
ABOUT 1080 MI...1735 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Leslie was located near latitude 31.6 North, longitude 44.4 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east near 12 mph (19
km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday,
followed by a northward turn Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening as an post-tropical cyclone is expected, and Leslie is
forecast to become a large and powerful post-tropical cyclone by
Wednesday with winds increasing to hurricane force on Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Leslie. Additional information can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header
NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at
https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-09-25 15:32

WTNT23 KNHC 251438
TCMAT3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
1500 UTC TUE SEP 25 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 44.4W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 150SE 150SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 44.4W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 45.2W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 32.1N 42.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 33.6N 40.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.
34 KT... 0NE 150SE 210SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 35.6N 39.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 50SW 130NW.
34 KT...270NE 200SE 280SW 350NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 36.1N 41.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT...150NE 100SE 180SW 240NW.
34 KT...290NE 210SE 300SW 420NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 35.5N 45.3W...SUBTROPICAL STORM
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 250SW 350NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 34.6N 48.1W...SUBTROPICAL STORM
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 34.4N 49.6W...SUBTROPICAL STORM
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.6N 44.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

2018-09-25 09:33

WTNT43 KNHC 250837
TCDAT3

Subtropical Depression Leslie Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 AM AST Tue Sep 25 2018

No significant changes have occurred with Leslie overnight. Deep
convection is generally confined to the eastern half of the
circulation as dry air continues to wrap into the western portion
of the cyclone. Satellite images indicate that the circulation has
become stretched from north to south, likely due to the approach of
a cold front that is currently located a few hundred miles to the
northwest of Leslie. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based
on the earlier ASCAT data.

The cold front is expected to merge with Leslie by tonight, causing
extratropical transition. While transitioning, Leslie is forecast
to strengthen for a couple of days due to significant baroclinic
forcing, and the NHC intensity forecast takes the peak winds just
below hurricane force at 36 and 48 hours. Later in the week, the
extratropical system is expected to cut off and gradually lose its
frontal features. Although this will likely cause some weakening,
it should also allow the system to regain subtropical
characteristics. The NHC intensity forecast is fairly similar to
the previous one and near the IVCN consensus model. This forecast
is also in fairly good agreement with the GFS and ECMWF models,
which are usually reliable intensity models for large subtropical
systems like Leslie. Based on the latest guidance, Leslie is now
expected to transition back to a subtropical cyclone in 96 hours.

Leslie has jogged to the southeast during the past several hours,
but an eastward to northeastward motion is expected during the next
day or so as Leslie makes its extratropical transition. After that
time, a turn to the north is expected followed by a slow westward
motion when Leslie cuts off from the mid-latitude flow. The models
are in fairly good agreement on this looping motion, and the NHC
track forecast follows the various consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 31.9N 46.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 32.1N 44.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 32.7N 41.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 26/1800Z 34.5N 40.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 27/0600Z 36.1N 41.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 28/0600Z 36.0N 45.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 29/0600Z 35.3N 48.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM
120H 30/0600Z 35.0N 50.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-09-25 09:33

WTNT33 KNHC 250837
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Subtropical Depression Leslie Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 AM AST Tue Sep 25 2018

...LESLIE EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 46.2W
ABOUT 1165 MI...1870 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 140 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Depression
Leslie was located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 46.2 West.
The subtropical depression is moving toward the southeast near 8 mph
(13 km/h). A faster east to northeast motion is expected later
today and Wednesday, followed by a turn to the north by Wednesday
night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Leslie is expected to lose its subtropical characteristics
by tonight. Strengthening as an post-tropical cyclone is expected,
and Leslie is forecast to become a large and powerful post-tropical
cyclone by Wednesday with winds approaching hurricane force.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-09-25 09:33

WTNT23 KNHC 250837
TCMAT3

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
0900 UTC TUE SEP 25 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 46.2W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 140 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 150SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 46.2W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 46.9W

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 32.1N 44.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 32.7N 41.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.
34 KT... 0NE 150SE 180SW 360NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 34.5N 40.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 90SW 120NW.
34 KT...270NE 180SE 240SW 360NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 36.1N 41.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...150NE 100SE 180SW 240NW.
34 KT...270NE 180SE 270SW 360NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 36.0N 45.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.
34 KT...240NE 180SE 270SW 300NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 35.3N 48.2W...SUBTROPICAL STORM
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 35.0N 50.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 46.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-09-25 04:32

WTNT82 EGRR 250406

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 25.09.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 30.1N 74.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.09.2018 0 30.1N 74.2W 1015 25
1200UTC 25.09.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.5N 106.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP952018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.09.2018 0 13.5N 106.9W 1006 20
1200UTC 25.09.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM KIRK ANALYSED POSITION : 10.8N 42.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.09.2018 0 10.8N 42.2W 1007 41
1200UTC 25.09.2018 12 10.8N 45.9W 1005 39
0000UTC 26.09.2018 24 11.4N 49.1W 1001 40
1200UTC 26.09.2018 36 11.7N 52.2W 999 44
0000UTC 27.09.2018 48 12.5N 54.7W 994 55
1200UTC 27.09.2018 60 13.2N 56.6W 992 68
0000UTC 28.09.2018 72 13.9N 58.2W 999 54
1200UTC 28.09.2018 84 14.5N 60.3W 1005 40
0000UTC 29.09.2018 96 15.2N 62.4W 1006 35
1200UTC 29.09.2018 108 15.6N 64.6W 1007 33
0000UTC 30.09.2018 120 16.0N 67.0W 1008 25
1200UTC 30.09.2018 132 16.0N 69.2W 1009 23
0000UTC 01.10.2018 144 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 33.0N 47.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.09.2018 0 33.0N 47.3W 1005 30
1200UTC 25.09.2018 12 32.5N 45.2W 1002 38
0000UTC 26.09.2018 24 32.5N 42.9W 993 43
1200UTC 26.09.2018 36 34.4N 39.8W 978 64
0000UTC 27.09.2018 48 36.6N 39.9W 965 64
1200UTC 27.09.2018 60 37.4N 41.7W 966 60
0000UTC 28.09.2018 72 37.2N 44.6W 967 59
1200UTC 28.09.2018 84 37.2N 46.8W 966 60
0000UTC 29.09.2018 96 36.3N 49.0W 967 57
1200UTC 29.09.2018 108 35.6N 50.6W 965 57
0000UTC 30.09.2018 120 35.1N 51.4W 965 55
1200UTC 30.09.2018 132 34.9N 51.8W 965 59
0000UTC 01.10.2018 144 35.0N 52.0W 962 63

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 16.0N 111.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.09.2018 48 16.4N 112.7W 1001 27
1200UTC 27.09.2018 60 16.6N 115.1W 996 41
0000UTC 28.09.2018 72 16.6N 116.5W 986 49
1200UTC 28.09.2018 84 17.1N 117.9W 984 47
0000UTC 29.09.2018 96 17.8N 119.1W 982 56
1200UTC 29.09.2018 108 19.4N 119.9W 979 57
0000UTC 30.09.2018 120 21.1N 121.0W 977 58
1200UTC 30.09.2018 132 22.3N 121.3W 977 57
0000UTC 01.10.2018 144 23.9N 120.7W 981 51

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 10.6N 96.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.09.2018 72 10.7N 97.0W 1004 27
1200UTC 28.09.2018 84 11.3N 98.4W 1004 29
0000UTC 29.09.2018 96 12.2N 100.3W 1002 32
1200UTC 29.09.2018 108 12.7N 102.6W 999 40
0000UTC 30.09.2018 120 12.6N 104.8W 994 43
1200UTC 30.09.2018 132 12.3N 106.9W 983 59
0000UTC 01.10.2018 144 12.5N 108.5W 969 66

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 11.1N 159.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.09.2018 108 11.1N 159.1W 1006 25
0000UTC 30.09.2018 120 12.0N 161.5W 1003 32
1200UTC 30.09.2018 132 12.7N 165.5W 1001 39
0000UTC 01.10.2018 144 12.7N 169.5W 998 39


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 250405

2018-09-25 04:32

WTNT80 EGRR 250405

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 25.09.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 30.1N 74.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 25.09.2018 30.1N 74.2W WEAK
12UTC 25.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.5N 106.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP952018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 25.09.2018 13.5N 106.9W WEAK
12UTC 25.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM KIRK ANALYSED POSITION : 10.8N 42.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 25.09.2018 10.8N 42.2W WEAK
12UTC 25.09.2018 10.8N 45.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.09.2018 11.4N 49.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.09.2018 11.7N 52.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.09.2018 12.5N 54.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 27.09.2018 13.2N 56.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.09.2018 13.9N 58.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.09.2018 14.5N 60.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 29.09.2018 15.2N 62.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.09.2018 15.6N 64.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2018 16.0N 67.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2018 16.0N 69.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 33.0N 47.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 25.09.2018 33.0N 47.3W WEAK
12UTC 25.09.2018 32.5N 45.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.09.2018 32.5N 42.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 26.09.2018 34.4N 39.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 27.09.2018 36.6N 39.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 27.09.2018 37.4N 41.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.09.2018 37.2N 44.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.09.2018 37.2N 46.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.09.2018 36.3N 49.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.09.2018 35.6N 50.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2018 35.1N 51.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2018 34.9N 51.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.10.2018 35.0N 52.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 16.0N 111.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 27.09.2018 16.4N 112.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.09.2018 16.6N 115.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 28.09.2018 16.6N 116.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.09.2018 17.1N 117.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.09.2018 17.8N 119.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.09.2018 19.4N 119.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2018 21.1N 121.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2018 22.3N 121.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.10.2018 23.9N 120.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 10.6N 96.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 28.09.2018 10.7N 97.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 28.09.2018 11.3N 98.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.09.2018 12.2N 100.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.09.2018 12.7N 102.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2018 12.6N 104.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.09.2018 12.3N 106.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.10.2018 12.5N 108.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 11.1N 159.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.09.2018 11.1N 159.1W WEAK
00UTC 30.09.2018 12.0N 161.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2018 12.7N 165.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.10.2018 12.7N 169.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 250405

2018-09-25 03:34

WTNT43 KNHC 250233
TCDAT3

Subtropical Depression Leslie Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 24 2018

Leslie's appearance in satellite imagery hasn't changed much this
evening. Deep convection is mainly occuring in bands well displaced
to the southeast of the cyclone's center, and recent ASCAT data
indicated that the maximum winds have decreased to near 30 kt, with
the highest wind occuring in those bands.

All indications are that Leslie will undergo a complicated
transition over the next several days. Little change is expected
with Leslie until it becomes post-tropical in about 24 hours. After
that time, all of the global models suggest that Leslie will quickly
strengthen as a result of substantial baroclinic forcing, likely
reaching a peak intensity sometime between 48 and 72 h. At the same
time, the cyclone will likely undergo a classic transition from
frontal low to warm seclusion while the wind field rapidly expands,
with 34-kt (gale-force) winds reaching several hundred miles from
the cyclone's center. By 96 h, the models indicate that Leslie will
once again become cut-off from the mid-latitude flow, and could
begin to re-acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics. While
each of the global models handles the exact details of this complex
evolution a little differently, confidence is increasing that Leslie
will become a powerful extratropical cyclone over the central
Atlantic over the next few of days. The NHC intensity forecast has
been increased between 36 and 96 h, and is near a average of the
global and regional dynamical model tracker output.

The depression is currently moving slowly eastward with an initial
motion of 090/3 kt. The guidance is in good agreement that Leslie
will accelerate eastward as it becomes more embedded within an
approaching frontal zone. A northward turn is expected by mid-week,
followed by a bend back toward the west by the end of the week as
Leslie strengthens, occludes, and eventually cuts off from the
mid-latitude flow to the north. The NHC track forecast has not been
significantly changed, and is near the GFEX and HCCA consensus aids
at most forecast hours. However, it should be noted that spread in
the guidance is high, especially by the end of the forecast period,
so confidence in the track forecast at that time is low.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 33.1N 47.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 32.9N 45.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 33.1N 43.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 26/1200Z 34.5N 41.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 27/0000Z 36.2N 40.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 28/0000Z 36.9N 43.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 29/0000Z 36.5N 47.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 30/0000Z 36.5N 49.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-09-25 03:34

WTNT33 KNHC 250232
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Subtropical Depression Leslie Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 24 2018

...LESLIE EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
BEGINNING TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.1N 47.1W
ABOUT 1175 MI...1895 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Depression
Leslie was located near latitude 33.1 North, longitude 47.1 West.
The depression is moving toward the east near 3 mph (6 km/h). A
faster eastward motion is expected to begin on Tuesday, followed by
a turn toward the north on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Leslie is forecast to become post-tropical on
Tuesday. Strengthening is likely after that time, and Leslie is
expected to become a large and powerful post-tropical cyclone by
Wednesday with winds approaching hurricane force.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-09-25 03:34

WTNT23 KNHC 250232
TCMAT3

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
0300 UTC TUE SEP 25 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 47.1W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 240SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 47.1W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 47.4W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 32.9N 45.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 33.1N 43.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 34.5N 41.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.
34 KT...300NE 100SE 250SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 36.2N 40.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 250NW.
34 KT...350NE 150SE 250SW 350NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 36.9N 43.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 250NW.
34 KT...350NE 150SE 250SW 350NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 36.5N 47.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 36.5N 49.0W...SUBTROPICAL STORM
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.1N 47.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-09-24 21:33

WTNT43 KNHC 242037
TCDAT3

Subtropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 PM AST Mon Sep 24 2018

Leslie's cloud pattern has become rather ragged and less organized
this afternoon. Visible satellite imagery indicates that the
surface circulation has become elongated, from north to south, with
multiple cloud swirls rotating within the larger gyre. The initial
intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory and could be generous,
based on the earlier partial ASCAT-A wind retrievals. The
intensity forecast philosophy remains the same. Leslie is expected
to interact with the incoming baroclinic zone approaching from the
northwest and begin intensifying as it completes a
post-tropical/extratropical transition by mid period. The official
forecast is based on the IVCN multi-model intensity consensus
through 36 hours, and a blend of the global models after Leslie
becomes an extratropical low.

Based on a centroid position of the aforementioned multiple surface
swirls, Leslie continues to move in an eastward fashion, or 090/6
kt. Leslie should turn toward the east-northeast in 36 hours in
response to an approaching mid-latitude trough and associated cold
front from the northwest over the central Atlantic. The large-scale
models are in good agreement with Leslie completing an extratropical
transition at that time. Afterward, the post-tropical cyclone is
forecast to become cut off from the mid- to upper-tropospheric
westerly steering flow and move cyclonically toward the end of the
week between the building Bermuda high to the west and mid-level
ridging over the east Atlantic. The NHC forecast now shows Leslie
as a strengthening extratropical low through day 5, in agreement
with GFS, Canadian, and European models. Subsequently, the wind
radii forecast has also been adjusted based on a compromise of the
aforementioned large-scale models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 33.0N 47.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 32.9N 46.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 32.6N 44.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 33.4N 41.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 26/1800Z 35.4N 39.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 27/1800Z 36.9N 42.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 28/1800Z 36.7N 46.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 29/1800Z 36.2N 48.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-09-24 21:33

WTNT33 KNHC 242037
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 PM AST Mon Sep 24 2018

...LESLIE A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.0N 47.2W
ABOUT 1185 MI...1905 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 33.0 North, longitude 47.2 West. The storm is
moving toward the east near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Tuesday night. A turn toward the
east-northeast with an increase in forward speed is forecast on
Wednesday followed by a north-northeastward turn by Thursday
morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast through Tuesday morning.
Leslie is forecast to strengthen by mid-week while transitioning
into an extratropical cyclone.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-09-24 21:33

WTNT23 KNHC 242036
TCMAT3

SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
2100 UTC MON SEP 24 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 47.2W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 47.2W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 47.6W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 32.9N 46.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 32.6N 44.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 50SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 33.4N 41.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 100SW 280NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 35.4N 39.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 120SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 36.9N 42.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 120SW 300NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 36.7N 46.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 36.2N 48.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.0N 47.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

2018-09-24 16:33

WTNT82 EGRR 241605

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 24.09.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.0N 107.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP952018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.09.2018 0 13.0N 107.9W 1007 19
0000UTC 25.09.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 29.2N 72.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.09.2018 0 29.2N 72.2W 1015 23
0000UTC 25.09.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIRK ANALYSED POSITION : 9.8N 38.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.09.2018 0 9.8N 38.0W 1008 40
0000UTC 25.09.2018 12 10.3N 41.6W 1007 34
1200UTC 25.09.2018 24 11.0N 45.2W 1005 39
0000UTC 26.09.2018 36 11.7N 48.5W 1002 40
1200UTC 26.09.2018 48 12.2N 51.5W 1001 40
0000UTC 27.09.2018 60 13.0N 54.1W 997 49
1200UTC 27.09.2018 72 14.0N 55.5W 990 63
0000UTC 28.09.2018 84 15.0N 56.3W 996 59
1200UTC 28.09.2018 96 15.6N 57.5W 1003 45
0000UTC 29.09.2018 108 16.0N 58.6W 1004 41
1200UTC 29.09.2018 120 16.1N 60.0W 1006 36
0000UTC 30.09.2018 132 16.6N 61.0W 1006 31
1200UTC 30.09.2018 144 17.3N 61.9W 1007 26

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 32.8N 48.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.09.2018 0 32.8N 48.1W 1005 30
0000UTC 25.09.2018 12 33.0N 47.3W 1005 33
1200UTC 25.09.2018 24 32.8N 45.5W 1002 39
0000UTC 26.09.2018 36 32.5N 43.1W 994 44
1200UTC 26.09.2018 48 34.0N 39.8W 981 64
0000UTC 27.09.2018 60 36.6N 39.8W 966 68
1200UTC 27.09.2018 72 36.7N 40.8W 965 61
0000UTC 28.09.2018 84 37.5N 42.9W 971 57
1200UTC 28.09.2018 96 37.0N 45.9W 973 59
0000UTC 29.09.2018 108 35.3N 48.3W 972 54
1200UTC 29.09.2018 120 34.9N 49.2W 968 55
0000UTC 30.09.2018 132 35.4N 50.2W 966 52
1200UTC 30.09.2018 144 36.0N 51.1W 965 51

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 32.6N 76.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 26.09.2018 36 33.1N 77.0W 1016 23
1200UTC 26.09.2018 48 35.0N 75.4W 1014 31
0000UTC 27.09.2018 60 37.2N 72.8W 1012 33
1200UTC 27.09.2018 72 39.0N 69.1W 1013 33
0000UTC 28.09.2018 84 40.8N 66.8W 1014 26
1200UTC 28.09.2018 96 43.5N 65.0W 1014 34
0000UTC 29.09.2018 108 46.7N 62.3W 1012 33
1200UTC 29.09.2018 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 16.4N 117.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.09.2018 84 16.4N 117.3W 1003 25
1200UTC 28.09.2018 96 17.0N 118.1W 1003 23
0000UTC 29.09.2018 108 18.4N 119.1W 1001 25
1200UTC 29.09.2018 120 20.2N 120.1W 1000 33
0000UTC 30.09.2018 132 21.9N 120.5W 999 36
1200UTC 30.09.2018 144 23.3N 120.7W 1002 28

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 11.1N 97.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.09.2018 96 11.4N 98.2W 1005 25
0000UTC 29.09.2018 108 12.2N 100.1W 1003 30
1200UTC 29.09.2018 120 13.0N 102.2W 1002 35
0000UTC 30.09.2018 132 13.3N 105.3W 998 36
1200UTC 30.09.2018 144 13.3N 107.9W 994 43

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 12.8N 157.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.09.2018 120 13.0N 159.0W 1005 30
0000UTC 30.09.2018 132 13.6N 163.1W 1002 35
1200UTC 30.09.2018 144 13.8N 166.9W 999 42


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 241605

2018-09-24 16:33

WTNT80 EGRR 241605

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 24.09.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.0N 107.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP952018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 24.09.2018 13.0N 107.9W WEAK
00UTC 25.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 29.2N 72.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 24.09.2018 29.2N 72.2W WEAK
00UTC 25.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIRK ANALYSED POSITION : 9.8N 38.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 24.09.2018 9.8N 38.0W WEAK
00UTC 25.09.2018 10.3N 41.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.09.2018 11.0N 45.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.09.2018 11.7N 48.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.09.2018 12.2N 51.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.09.2018 13.0N 54.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.09.2018 14.0N 55.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 28.09.2018 15.0N 56.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.09.2018 15.6N 57.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 29.09.2018 16.0N 58.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.09.2018 16.1N 60.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2018 16.6N 61.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2018 17.3N 61.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 32.8N 48.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 24.09.2018 32.8N 48.1W WEAK
00UTC 25.09.2018 33.0N 47.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.09.2018 32.8N 45.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.09.2018 32.5N 43.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 26.09.2018 34.0N 39.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 27.09.2018 36.6N 39.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 27.09.2018 36.7N 40.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.09.2018 37.5N 42.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.09.2018 37.0N 45.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.09.2018 35.3N 48.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.09.2018 34.9N 49.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.09.2018 35.4N 50.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2018 36.0N 51.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 32.6N 76.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 26.09.2018 33.1N 77.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 26.09.2018 35.0N 75.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.09.2018 37.2N 72.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.09.2018 39.0N 69.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.09.2018 40.8N 66.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.09.2018 43.5N 65.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.09.2018 46.7N 62.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 16.4N 117.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 28.09.2018 16.4N 117.3W WEAK
12UTC 28.09.2018 17.0N 118.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.09.2018 18.4N 119.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.09.2018 20.2N 120.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2018 21.9N 120.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2018 23.3N 120.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 11.1N 97.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 28.09.2018 11.4N 98.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.09.2018 12.2N 100.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.09.2018 13.0N 102.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2018 13.3N 105.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2018 13.3N 107.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 12.8N 157.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.09.2018 13.0N 159.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 30.09.2018 13.6N 163.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2018 13.8N 166.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 241605

2018-09-24 15:32

WTNT43 KNHC 241434
TCDAT3

Subtropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 24 2018

Conventional satellite imagery shows little change in Leslie's
cloud pattern during the past several hours with the exception of a
few new isolated thunderstorms developing near the surface center.
Accordingly, the initial intensity for this advisory is kept at 35
kt. The statistical intensity guidance and the large-scale models
show Leslie commencing a strengthening trend in 24 hours as a
mid-latitude baroclinic system digs southeastward toward the
cyclone. Some of the models also indicate that Leslie, after
completing an extratropical transition in around 48 hours, will
deepen and generate a large area of gale force winds, particularly
in the northwest quadrant. The NHC intensity forecast reflects this
scenario and is just below the IVCN intensity consensus.

The initial motion is estimated to be an eastward drift, or 090/4 kt
within the increasing mid-level westerly steering flow. A turn to
the east-northeast is forecast as an approaching mid-latitude
trough and associated cold front approaches from the northwest over
the central Atlantic. The deterministic guidance indicate that the
aforementioned baroclinic system will overtake Leslie near the 48
hour period, and influence a transition to a non-tropical low
pressure system. Subsequently, the GFS and the European models
still show extratropical Leslie as the primary system and deepening
with time. For now, the official forecast will indicate a merging
scenario, but succeeding advisories may include extratropical low
forecast points through day 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 32.5N 48.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 32.5N 47.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 32.4N 45.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 32.3N 42.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 33.6N 39.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 27/1200Z...MERGED WITH FRONT AND LARGER LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-09-24 15:32

WTNT33 KNHC 241434
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 24 2018

...LESLIE DRIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...NO CHANGE
IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.5N 48.0W
ABOUT 1240 MI...1995 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Leslie
was located near latitude 32.5 North, longitude 48.0 West. The
storm is moving toward the east near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday night. A
turn toward the east-northeast with an increase in forward speed is
forecast on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast through tonight. Leslie
is forecast to strengthen by mid-week while it interacts and
eventually merges with a frontal system.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-09-24 15:32

WTNT23 KNHC 241434
TCMAT3

SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
1500 UTC MON SEP 24 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 48.0W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 48.0W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 48.2W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 32.5N 47.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 32.4N 45.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 20SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 32.3N 42.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 33.6N 39.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 40SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z...MERGED WITH FRONT AND LARGER LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.5N 48.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

2018-09-24 09:33

WTNT43 KNHC 240832
TCDAT3

Subtropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 AM AST Mon Sep 24 2018

Leslie has changed little overnight. The large subtropical cyclone
continues to produce patches of deep convection, mostly to the south
and east of the center. The initial intensity is again held at 35
kt, which is near the upper end of the satellite intensity
estimates.

The subtropical storm is moving southward at 5 kt. The steering
currents around Leslie are expected to collapse later today and
little overall motion is forecast during the next 12-18 hours.
After that time, a cold front is expected to approach the system,
and that should cause Leslie to move eastward tonight and Tuesday.
The front is expected to merge with Leslie by Tuesday night, causing
it to become extratropical. While little change in intensity is
expected during the next day or so, due to dry air and moderate
shear, some strengthening as an extratropical low is likely due to
baroclinic forcing. In fact, after becoming extratropical, the
models show Leslie merging with another frontal low to its north,
leading to the formation of a powerful slow-moving non-tropical low
with gale- or storm-force winds over the central Atlantic later this
week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 32.6N 48.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 32.6N 48.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 32.6N 46.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 32.5N 44.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 32.7N 42.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 27/0600Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-09-24 09:33

WTNT33 KNHC 240831
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 AM AST Mon Sep 24 2018

...LESLIE CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.6N 48.6W
ABOUT 1270 MI...2045 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 32.6 North, longitude 48.6 West. The storm is
moving toward the south near 6 mph (9 km/h), and little motion is
expected today. An eastward motion at a faster forward speed is
forecast tonight and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or
so, but Leslie is forecast to strengthen when it merges with a
frontal system in two to three days.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-09-24 09:33

WTNT23 KNHC 240831
TCMAT3

SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
0900 UTC MON SEP 24 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 48.6W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 48.6W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 48.7W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 32.6N 48.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 32.6N 46.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 32.5N 44.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 32.7N 42.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.6N 48.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-09-24 04:33

WTNT82 EGRR 240405

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 24.09.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 102.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP952018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.09.2018 0 13.6N 102.9W 1006 16
1200UTC 24.09.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 28.5N 69.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.09.2018 0 28.5N 69.7W 1012 23
1200UTC 24.09.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIRK ANALYSED POSITION : 9.5N 33.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.09.2018 0 9.5N 33.5W 1008 35
1200UTC 24.09.2018 12 9.5N 37.2W 1008 32
0000UTC 25.09.2018 24 10.0N 40.6W 1006 35
1200UTC 25.09.2018 36 10.5N 44.0W 1004 40
0000UTC 26.09.2018 48 11.0N 47.1W 1000 43
1200UTC 26.09.2018 60 11.6N 49.8W 999 43
0000UTC 27.09.2018 72 12.6N 52.2W 996 51
1200UTC 27.09.2018 84 13.6N 53.7W 991 60
0000UTC 28.09.2018 96 14.7N 54.3W 989 61
1200UTC 28.09.2018 108 15.5N 55.1W 1000 51
0000UTC 29.09.2018 120 16.0N 56.1W 1003 44
1200UTC 29.09.2018 132 16.2N 57.5W 1006 36
0000UTC 30.09.2018 144 16.6N 58.8W 1007 31

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 33.3N 48.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.09.2018 0 33.3N 48.0W 1004 32
1200UTC 24.09.2018 12 32.9N 48.1W 1006 30
0000UTC 25.09.2018 24 33.0N 47.3W 1006 32
1200UTC 25.09.2018 36 32.8N 45.7W 1003 37
0000UTC 26.09.2018 48 32.7N 43.1W 996 42
1200UTC 26.09.2018 60 34.0N 39.9W 983 56
0000UTC 27.09.2018 72 36.4N 37.7W 966 70
1200UTC 27.09.2018 84 37.8N 38.7W 965 56
0000UTC 28.09.2018 96 38.6N 41.2W 971 56
1200UTC 28.09.2018 108 37.6N 43.6W 972 52
0000UTC 29.09.2018 120 37.6N 44.6W 970 51
1200UTC 29.09.2018 132 37.8N 45.5W 968 51
0000UTC 30.09.2018 144 38.3N 46.9W 970 48

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 31.9N 76.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.09.2018 36 31.9N 76.1W 1016 27
0000UTC 26.09.2018 48 33.4N 76.7W 1015 26
1200UTC 26.09.2018 60 35.1N 75.5W 1013 31
0000UTC 27.09.2018 72 37.4N 72.9W 1012 34
1200UTC 27.09.2018 84 39.5N 68.6W 1012 35
0000UTC 28.09.2018 96 41.6N 65.4W 1013 28
1200UTC 28.09.2018 108 43.4N 62.6W 1014 31
0000UTC 29.09.2018 120 45.7N 59.9W 1013 28
1200UTC 29.09.2018 132 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 16.9N 111.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.09.2018 72 16.7N 112.9W 1003 24
1200UTC 27.09.2018 84 16.7N 114.6W 1000 29
0000UTC 28.09.2018 96 16.9N 116.5W 997 32
1200UTC 28.09.2018 108 17.7N 117.7W 994 38
0000UTC 29.09.2018 120 18.6N 119.1W 990 44
1200UTC 29.09.2018 132 20.3N 120.5W 988 53
0000UTC 30.09.2018 144 21.7N 121.9W 987 50

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 11.0N 98.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.09.2018 108 11.3N 99.6W 1003 29
0000UTC 29.09.2018 120 11.9N 102.0W 1000 33
1200UTC 29.09.2018 132 12.4N 104.2W 996 37
0000UTC 30.09.2018 144 13.0N 106.8W 985 49

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 13.2N 149.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.09.2018 108 13.5N 150.7W 1004 28
0000UTC 29.09.2018 120 14.4N 153.7W 1001 33
1200UTC 29.09.2018 132 14.5N 157.7W 998 39
0000UTC 30.09.2018 144 14.4N 161.5W 994 43


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 240404

2018-09-24 04:33

WTNT80 EGRR 240404

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 24.09.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 102.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP952018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 24.09.2018 13.6N 102.9W WEAK
12UTC 24.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 28.5N 69.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 24.09.2018 28.5N 69.7W WEAK
12UTC 24.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIRK ANALYSED POSITION : 9.5N 33.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 24.09.2018 9.5N 33.5W WEAK
12UTC 24.09.2018 9.5N 37.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.09.2018 10.0N 40.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.09.2018 10.5N 44.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.09.2018 11.0N 47.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 26.09.2018 11.6N 49.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.09.2018 12.6N 52.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.09.2018 13.6N 53.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 28.09.2018 14.7N 54.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.09.2018 15.5N 55.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 29.09.2018 16.0N 56.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.09.2018 16.2N 57.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2018 16.6N 58.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 33.3N 48.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 24.09.2018 33.3N 48.0W WEAK
12UTC 24.09.2018 32.9N 48.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.09.2018 33.0N 47.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.09.2018 32.8N 45.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.09.2018 32.7N 43.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 26.09.2018 34.0N 39.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 27.09.2018 36.4N 37.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 27.09.2018 37.8N 38.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.09.2018 38.6N 41.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.09.2018 37.6N 43.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.09.2018 37.6N 44.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.09.2018 37.8N 45.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2018 38.3N 46.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 31.9N 76.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 25.09.2018 31.9N 76.1W WEAK
00UTC 26.09.2018 33.4N 76.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.09.2018 35.1N 75.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.09.2018 37.4N 72.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.09.2018 39.5N 68.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.09.2018 41.6N 65.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.09.2018 43.4N 62.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.09.2018 45.7N 59.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 16.9N 111.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 27.09.2018 16.7N 112.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 27.09.2018 16.7N 114.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.09.2018 16.9N 116.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.09.2018 17.7N 117.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.09.2018 18.6N 119.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 29.09.2018 20.3N 120.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2018 21.7N 121.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 11.0N 98.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 28.09.2018 11.3N 99.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.09.2018 11.9N 102.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.09.2018 12.4N 104.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2018 13.0N 106.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 13.2N 149.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 28.09.2018 13.5N 150.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.09.2018 14.4N 153.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.09.2018 14.5N 157.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2018 14.4N 161.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 240404

2018-09-24 03:32

WTNT43 KNHC 240244
TCDAT3

Subtropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 23 2018

There has been little change in the organization of the subtropical
cyclone over the past several hours. Patches of deep convection
continue to develop over the southeastern portion of the circulation
but there is a lack of convective banding elsewhere. The initial
intensity remains 35 kt, which is based on a partial ASCAT pass that
detected 25-30 kt winds over the northwestern portion of the storm
this evening. Leslie is not forecast to strengthen over the next
day or so due to dry air and moderate vertical shear. By 48 hours,
some increase in wind is predicted as Leslie interacts with an
approaching baroclinic zone.

Leslie jogged west-southwestward for a few hours this evening, but
has since turned southwestward and slowed down. The system is
forecast to move little over the next 24 hours, then begin a faster
eastward motion on Monday night and Tuesday as a mid-latitude trough
and associated cold front digs southeastward over the central
Atlantic. The global models indicate that the front will overtake
Leslie in about 48 hours, and the NHC forecast calls for the system
to become an extratropical low at that time. The evolution of the
system becomes even more complex after that, as the GFS shows Leslie
being absorbed by a new non-tropical low pressure area to the north,
while some of other global models maintain post-tropical Leslie as
the primary low pressure area. For now, the NHC forecast maintains
continuity with the previous advisories and calls for the system to
merge with the larger front/low by 72 h, but there is a high level
of uncertainty in the exact evolution and structure of the system.
Regardless of the details of the evolution, a large non-tropical
low pressure area with gale- to storm-force winds is expected to be
over the east-central Atlantic later this week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 33.3N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 33.1N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 33.1N 47.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 32.9N 46.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 33.1N 43.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 27/0000Z...MERGED WITH FRONT AND LARGER LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-09-24 03:32

WTNT33 KNHC 240244
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 23 2018

...SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.3N 48.5W
ABOUT 1245 MI...2005 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Leslie
was located near latitude 33.3 North, longitude 48.5 West. The storm
is moving toward the southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and little
motion is anticipated through Monday. An eastward motion at a
faster forward speed is expected by Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of
days, and Leslie is forecast to be merge with a larger non-tropical
low by the middle of the week.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-09-24 03:32

WTNT23 KNHC 240243
TCMAT3

SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
0300 UTC MON SEP 24 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 48.5W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 230 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 48.5W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 48.2W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 33.1N 48.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 33.1N 47.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 32.9N 46.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 33.1N 43.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...MERGED WITH FRONT AND LARGER LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.3N 48.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

2018-09-23 22:33

WTNT63 KNHC 232125
TCUAT3

Subtropical Storm Leslie Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
530 PM AST Sun Sep 23 2018

A Tropical Cyclone Update statement containing pre-formatted
information was inadvertently transmitted under the Subtropical
Storm Leslie header. Please disregard that product and refer to the
500 PM AST (2100 UTC) Public Advisory for the latest information on
Leslie, which is also shown below.


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.5N 47.2W
ABOUT 1170 MI...1885 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-09-23 21:32

WTNT63 KNHC 232034
TCUAT3

Subtropical Storm Leslie Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 PM AST Sun Sep 23 2018


...WARNING...
Header information (above) was obtained from
the last official forecast file. Check the
header block carefully, especially the
system status and the time-date line.
...WARNING...


!****** START OF TCU EXAMPLE ******!


Tropical Storm Cristobal Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042014
620 AM AST Sun Aug 24 2014

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

NOAA and Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate
that the depression has strengthened to Tropical Storm Cristobal.
The maximum winds are estimated to be 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts.

SUMMARY OF 620 AM AST...1020 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 73.3W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM NNW OF MAYAGUANA ISLAND
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM ESE OF LONG ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-09-23 21:32

WTNT43 KNHC 232036
TCDAT3

Subtropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 PM AST Sun Sep 23 2018

Leslie's cloud pattern has not become any better organized, nor do
we have any data to support a wind increase. The initial intensity
is then kept at 35 kt. The evolution of Leslie is very complex and
difficult to forecast. There is a possibility that Leslie will be
absorbed by a larger low that is forecast to form nearby, or that
Leslie could maintain its identity while rotating around the low. At
this time NHC will maintain continuity and forecasts Leslie to be
absorbed by the large low by 72 hours. No significant change in
intensity or structure is anticipated until then.

Leslie continues to be embedded within very light steering currents,
and most likely the cyclone will merely meander today and
tomorrow. After that time, with the development of the new low to
the north, Leslie will likely be steered eastward until it is
absorbed. The track forecast is highly uncertain given the complex
flow pattern surrounding the subtropical cyclone.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 33.5N 47.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 33.4N 47.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 33.2N 48.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 33.2N 46.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 33.0N 44.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-09-23 21:32

WTNT33 KNHC 232034
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
500 PM AST Sun Sep 23 2018

...SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.5N 47.2W
ABOUT 1170 MI...1885 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 33.5 North, longitude 47.2 West. The storm is
moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h), and little motion is
anticipated during the next 2 days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
No important changes in intensity are anticipated, and Leslie is
forecast to become absorbed by a larger non-tropical low by the
middle of the week.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-09-23 21:32

WTNT23 KNHC 232034
TCMAT3

SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
2100 UTC SUN SEP 23 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 47.2W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 180SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 47.2W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 47.0W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 33.4N 47.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 33.2N 48.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 33.2N 46.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 140SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 33.0N 44.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 170SE 20SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.5N 47.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-09-23 15:32

WTNT43 KNHC 231432
TCDAT3

Subtropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018

The development of a subtropical storm that NHC and the global
models have been advertising for the past several days has
materialized, and based on satellite intensity classification from
TAFB and earlier ASCAT data, advisories on Subtropical Storm Leslie
have been initiated.

Leslie is still embedded within an upper-level low and strong winds
are removed from the center. However, there is a chance as usual
that the subtropical cyclone could develop additional convection
near the center, and the transition to a tropical system during the
next day or so is not out of the question. Global models do
indicate that a new low is going to form north of Leslie, and that
the subtropical cyclone will become absorbed by the new larger low.
This is the scenario depicted by NHC at this time.

Leslie is embedded within very light steering currents, and most
likely the cyclone will be meandering today and tomorrow. After
that time, with the development of the new low to the north, Leslie
will likely move east until it becomes absorbed.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 33.0N 46.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 33.2N 47.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 33.0N 47.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 33.0N 46.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 33.0N 45.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 26/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-09-23 15:32

WTNT33 KNHC 231431
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018

...SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORMS IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC...
...FORECAST TO BE A SHORT-LIVED CYCLONE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.0N 46.5W
ABOUT 1145 MI...1845 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Leslie
was located near latitude 33.0 North, longitude 46.5 West. The
storm is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). Little overall
motion is anticipated during the next 2 days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible, but Leslie is forecast to
become absorbed by a larger non-tropical low by the middle of the
week.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-09-23 15:32

WTNT23 KNHC 231431
TCMAT3

SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018
1500 UTC SUN SEP 23 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 46.5W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 180SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 46.5W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 46.2W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 33.2N 47.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 33.0N 47.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 33.0N 46.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 140SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 33.0N 45.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...140NE 170SE 20SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.0N 46.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA