Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ROSA-18
in Mexico

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Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 021434
TCDEP5

REMNANTS OF ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
900 AM MDT TUE OCT 02 2018

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
ROSA HAS BECOME AN ELONGATED TROUGH WITH MULTIPLE SWIRLS ALONG ITS
AXIS. THEREFORE, ROSA NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE,
AND THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT
ASSUMING SOME DECREASE IN WINDS FROM THE ASCAT PASS LAST NIGHT.

ALTHOUGH ROSA HAS DISSIPATED, HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE RAINFALL THREAT, PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICE AND STORM SUMMARY
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/DISCUSSIONS/NFDSCC1.HTML

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 29.7N 114.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS
12H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 021434 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF ROSA ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
900 AM MDT TUE OCT 02 2018

...ROSA DISSIPATES BUT THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING
CONTINUES OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 114.2W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SSE OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), THE REMNANTS OF ROSA WERE LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 114.2 WEST. THE REMNANTS ARE MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H), AND THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH (45 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: ROSA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE THE FOLLOWING TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS INTO WEDNESDAY:

BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA: 3 TO 6 INCHES, ISOLATED
10 INCHES.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA: 2 TO 4 INCHES. ISOLATED 6 INCH TOTALS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL ARIZONA.

REST OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, CENTRAL ROCKIES, AND GREAT BASIN:
1 TO 2 INCHES, ISOLATED 4 INCHES.

THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING.
DANGEROUS DEBRIS FLOWS AND LANDSLIDES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 021434
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Rosa Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
900 AM MDT Tue Oct 02 2018

...ROSA DISSIPATES BUT THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING
CONTINUES OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 114.2W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SSE OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the remnants of Rosa were located near
latitude 29.7 North, longitude 114.2 West. The remnants are moving
toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and they are expected to
move over the Desert Southwest by tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Rosa is expected to produce the following total rainfall
accumulations into Wednesday:

Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated
10 inches.

Central and Southern Arizona: 2 to 4 inches. Isolated 6 inch totals
are possible in the mountains of Central Arizona.

Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin:
1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash flooding.
Dangerous debris flows and landslides are also possible in
mountainous terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For more information please see products
issued by your local NWS forecast office and Storm Summary products
issued by the Weather Prediction Center at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 021434
TCMEP5

REMNANTS OF ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
1500 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 114.2W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 114.2W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 114.4W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.7N 114.2W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON ROSA

..
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 020851 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
300 AM MDT TUE OCT 02 2018

SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LACK OF CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER OF ROSA THIS MORNING. THE REMAINING CONVECTION IS
LOCATED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER, AND IS SPREADING INLAND OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A COUPLE OF
PARTIAL ASCAT PASSES REVEALED AN AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND THIS IS THE BASIS FOR REDUCING THE
INITIAL INTENSITY TO 30 KT. THE DATA ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE
CIRCULATION HAS BECOME ELONGATED AND THAT A NEW CENTER MAY BE
FORMING NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 030/9 KT. ROSA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND A
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. THESE
STEERING FEATURES SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF ROSA ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY, AND ROSA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO OR SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA BY TONIGHT.

ALTHOUGH ROSA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN, THE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED
TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING TO
PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. THE MAIN HAZARD EXPECTED FROM ROSA OR ITS REMNANTS IS VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN BAJA CALIFORNIA, NORTHWESTERN SONORA, AND THE U.S.
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 020851
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Rosa Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
300 AM MDT Tue Oct 02 2018

Satellite imagery continues to show a lack of convection near
the center of Rosa this morning. The remaining convection is
located well northeast of the center, and is spreading inland over
northern Mexico and portions of the Desert Southwest. A couple of
partial ASCAT passes revealed an area of 25-30 kt winds over the
central Gulf of California, and this is the basis for reducing the
initial intensity to 30 kt. The data also suggest that the
circulation has become elongated and that a new center may be
forming near the northeastern coast of the Baja California
peninsula.

The initial motion estimate is 030/9 kt. Rosa is expected to move
northeastward between a deep-layer ridge over northern Mexico and a
mid- to upper-level trough over the northeastern Pacific. These
steering features should bring the center of Rosa across the
northern Gulf of California and into northern Mexico this afternoon.
Southwesterly shear and land interaction should cause the cyclone to
continue to weaken today, and Rosa is expected to dissipate over
northern Mexico or southwestern Arizona by tonight.

Although Rosa is forecast to weaken, the system is still expected
to bring heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding to
portions of northwestern Mexico and the Desert Southwest during
the next day or so.


Key Messages:

1. The main hazard expected from Rosa or its remnants is very heavy
rainfall in Baja California, northwestern Sonora, and the U.S.
Desert Southwest. These rains are expected to produce
life-threatening flash flooding and debris flows in the deserts, and
landslides in mountainous terrain. For more information about
potential rainfall in those areas, please see products from the
Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 29.3N 114.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 31.8N 114.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 020851 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
300 AM MDT TUE OCT 02 2018

...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...
............LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND DANGEROUS DEBRIS FLOWS
AND
LANDSLIDES POSSIBLE...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 114.9W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND
NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ROSA.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 114.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH (17
KM/H). THIS MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF ROSA WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. ROSA'S REMNANTS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 020851
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Rosa Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
300 AM MDT Tue Oct 02 2018

...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND DANGEROUS DEBRIS FLOWS AND
LANDSLIDES POSSIBLE...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 114.9W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued all watches and warnings.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern and central Baja California peninsula and
northwestern Sonora should continue to monitor the progress of Rosa.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rosa was
located near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 114.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17
km/h). This motion with an increase in forward speed is expected
today. On the forecast track, the center of Rosa will move across
the Baja California peninsula and into the northern Gulf of
California this morning. Rosa's remnants are then expected to move
across the Desert Southwest by tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional weakening is forecast and Rosa is expected to become a
remnant low over northern Mexico or the southwestern United States
later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Rosa is expected to produce the following total rainfall
accumulations into Wednesday:

Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated
10 inches.

Central and Southern Arizona: 2 to 4 inches. Isolated 6 inch totals
are possible in the mountains of Central Arizona.

Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin:
1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash flooding.
Dangerous debris flows and landslides are also possible in
mountainous terrain.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are possible over the
central portions of the Baja California peninsula this morning,
especially over higher elevations.

SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula, and southern California through today.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 020851
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
0900 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND
NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ROSA.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 114.9W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 114.9W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 115.1W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 31.8N 114.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N 114.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

..
FORECASTER BROWN


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 020545 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ROSA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
1100 PM PDT MON OCT 01 2018

...CENTER OF ROSA NEAR THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...............BRINGING FLOODING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA,
SONORA,
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 115.1W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM N OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
............. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA
ABREOJOS
TO CABO SAN QUINTIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
............. EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA
DE
LOS
ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ROSA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM PDT (0600 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ROSA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 115.1 WEST. ROSA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 020545
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rosa Intermediate Advisory Number 28A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
1100 PM PDT Mon Oct 01 2018

...CENTER OF ROSA NEAR THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...BRINGING FLOODING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, SONORA,
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 115.1W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM N OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos
to Cabo San Quintin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los
Angeles to San Felipe

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Rosa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM PDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rosa was
located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 115.1 West. Rosa is
moving toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue with an increase in forward speed tonight and
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Rosa will be near the
coast of the Baja California peninsula within the warning area
during the next few hours and then move across the peninsula into
the northern Gulf of California. Rosa's remnants are then expected
to move across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast through tonight while Rosa approaches and
moves over the northern Baja California peninsula. Rosa is expected
to become a remnant low over the southwestern United States on
Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Rosa is expected to produce the following total rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday morning:

Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated
10 inches. On the forecast track, the center of Rosa will be near
the coast of the Baja California peninsula within the warning area
during the next several hours and then move across the peninsula
into the northern Gulf of California later tonight. Rosa's remnants
are then expected to move across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday.

Central and Southern Arizona: 2 to 4 inches. Isolated 6 inch totals
are possible in the mountains of Central Arizona.

Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin:
1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash flooding.
Dangerous debris flows and landslides are also possible in
mountainous terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring in portions of
the warning area, especially over higher elevations. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area tonight and Tuesday
morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula, and southern California through Tuesday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 020242 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
800 PM PDT MON OCT 01 2018

ROSA CONTINUES TO LACK DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER, WHICH IS
CURRENTLY OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 21C. HOWEVER, STRONG
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS. THE
MEXICAN AUTOMATED STATION AT ISLA CEDROS REPORTED 30 KT WINDS WITH
GUSTS NEAR 40 KT A FEW HOURS AGO, AND PASSIVE MICROWAVE DATA
SUGGESTS THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE CYCLONE ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
ONSHORE SOUTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA WHERE NO SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE
AVAILABLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KT, AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THIS IS GENEROUS. ROSA SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES
BAJA CALIFORNIA, BUT IT IS LIKELY THE WARM WATER OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA WILL MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE UNTIL
FINAL LANDFALL IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. AFTER THAT LANDFALL, ROSA
SHOULD QUICKLY DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES ON TUESDAY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 035/9. ROSA SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND A
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC UNTIL THE
CYCLONE DISSIPATES. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY
THAT THE CENTER OF ROSA WILL REFORM OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN
THE NEXT 12 H, WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME ERRATIC CHANGES IN THE FORWARD
SPEED.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. THE MAIN HAZARD EXPECTED FROM ROSA OR ITS REMNANTS IS VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN BAJA CALIFORNIA, NORTHWESTERN SONORA, AND THE U.S.


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 020242
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Rosa Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
800 PM PDT Mon Oct 01 2018

Rosa continues to lack deep convection near the center, which is
currently over sea surface temperatures of 21C. However, strong
convection is occurring to the northeast of the center over the
northern Gulf of California and the adjacent land areas. The
Mexican automated station at Isla Cedros reported 30 kt winds with
gusts near 40 kt a few hours ago, and passive microwave data
suggests the strongest winds in the cyclone are currently moving
onshore south of Punta Eugenia where no surface observations are
available. The initial intensity is kept at 35 kt, and it is
possible that this is generous. Rosa should weaken as it crosses
Baja California, but it is likely the warm water of the Gulf of
California will maintain the system as a tropical cyclone until
final landfall in northwestern Mexico. After that landfall, Rosa
should quickly degenerate into a remnant low over the southwestern
United States on Tuesday.

The initial motion is 035/9. Rosa should move generally
northeastward between a deep-layer ridge over northern Mexico and a
mid- to upper-level trough over the northeastern Pacific until the
cyclone dissipates. The dynamical models suggests the possibility
that the center of Rosa will reform over the Gulf of California in
the next 12 h, which may lead to some erratic changes in the forward
speed.


Key Messages:

1. The main hazard expected from Rosa or its remnants is very heavy
rainfall in Baja California, northwestern Sonora, and the U.S.
Desert Southwest. These rains are expected to produce
life-threatening flash flooding and debris flows in the deserts, and
landslides in mountainous terrain. For more information about
potential rainfall in that area, please see products from the
Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office.

2. Tropical storm conditions are affecting portions of the central
and northern Baja California peninsula, especially over higher
elevations. These conditions could spread into the northern
Gulf of California later tonight. Interests in those locations
should monitor the progress of Rosa.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 28.9N 115.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 30.8N 114.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 33.5N 113.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 020242 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ROSA ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
800 PM PDT MON OCT 01 2018

...CENTER OF ROSA PASSING NORTH OF ISLA CEDROS AND APPROACHING
THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...
.............BRINGING FLOODING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA,
SONORA,
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 115.3W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM N OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
........... WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA
ABREOJOS
TO CABO SAN QUINTIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
........... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA DE
LOS
ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ROSA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ROSA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 115.3 WEST. ROSA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 020242
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rosa Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
800 PM PDT Mon Oct 01 2018

...CENTER OF ROSA PASSING NORTH OF ISLA CEDROS AND APPROACHING
THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...
...BRINGING FLOODING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, SONORA,
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 115.3W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM N OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos
to Cabo San Quintin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los
Angeles to San Felipe

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Rosa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rosa was
located near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 115.3 West. Rosa is
moving toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue with an increase in forward speed tonight and
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Rosa will be near the
coast of the Baja California peninsula within the warning area
during the next few hours and then move across the peninsula into
the northern Gulf of California. Rosa's remnants are then expected
to move across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast through tonight while Rosa approaches and
moves over the northern Baja California peninsula. Rosa is expected
to become a remnant low over the southwestern United States on
Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Rosa is expected to produce the following total rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday morning:

Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated
10 inches. On the forecast track, the center of Rosa will be near
the coast of the Baja California peninsula within the warning area
during the next several hours and then move across the peninsula
into the northern Gulf of California later tonight. Rosa's remnants
are then expected to move across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday.

Central and Southern Arizona: 2 to 4 inches. Isolated 6 inch totals
are possible in the mountains of Central Arizona.

Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin:
1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash flooding.
Dangerous debris flows and landslides are also possible in
mountainous terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring over the coast
in portions of the warning area. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area tonight and Tuesday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula, and southern California through Tuesday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM PDT.
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 020241
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
0300 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS
TO CABO SAN QUINTIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA DE LOS
ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ROSA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 115.3W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 130SE 50SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 120SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 115.3W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 115.7W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 30.8N 114.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 33.5N 113.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.9N 115.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

....
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 012347 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ROSA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
500 PM PDT MON OCT 01 2018

...CENTER OF ROSA NOW WEST-NORTHWEST OF PUNTA EUGENIA...
..............BRINGING FLOODING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA,
SONORA,
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 115.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WNW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
............ WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA
ABREOJOS
TO CABO SAN QUINTIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
............ EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA DE
LOS
ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ROSA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM PDT (0000 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ROSA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 115.8 WEST. ROSA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. ON THE


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 012347
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rosa Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
500 PM PDT Mon Oct 01 2018

...CENTER OF ROSA NOW WEST-NORTHWEST OF PUNTA EUGENIA...
...BRINGING FLOODING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, SONORA,
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 115.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WNW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos
to Cabo San Quintin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los
Angeles to San Felipe

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Rosa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM PDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rosa was
located near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 115.8 West. Rosa is
moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Rosa will be near the coast of the
Baja California peninsula within the warning area during the next
several hours and then move across the peninsula into the northern
Gulf of California later tonight. Rosa's remnants are then expected
to move across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast through tonight while Rosa approaches
and moves over the northern Baja California peninsula. Rosa is
expected to become a remnant low over the southwestern United States
on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center. The Mexican automated station on Isla Cedros
recently reported a wind gust of 45 mph (73 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Rosa is expected to produce the following total rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday morning:

Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated
10 inches.

Central and Southern Arizona: 2 to 4 inches. Isolated 6 inch totals
are possible in the mountains of Central Arizona.

Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin:
1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash flooding.
Dangerous debris flows and landslides are also possible in
mountainous terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring over the coast
in portions of the warning area. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area by late this afternoon or tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula, and southern California through Tuesday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 012037 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
200 PM PDT MON OCT 01 2018

ROSA HAS NO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR ITS CENTER, BUT THERE ARE PLENTY
OF RAIN-BEARING CLOUDS OVER AREAS WELL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTER, INCLUDING THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA,
SONORA, AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE
SCATTEROMETER RECENTLY MISSED ROSA, BUT ASSUMING A STEADY SPIN DOWN
SINCE THE LAST OVERPASS 12 HOURS AGO, THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET
AT 35 KT. CONTINUED WEAKENING, DUE TO VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR,
COOL WATERS, AND THEN INTERACTION WITH LAND, SHOULD REDUCE ROSA TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION VERY SOON. ROSA IS LIKELY TO DEGENERATE INTO A
REMNANT LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES TOMORROW.

THE CYCLONE CONTINUES MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD, OR 030/9 KT. THE
TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
PACKAGE. THE FLOW AHEAD OF A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD ADVECT
ROSA, OR ITS REMNANT, NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS CLOSELY.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. THE MAIN HAZARD EXPECTED FROM ROSA OR ITS REMNANTS IS VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN BAJA CALIFORNIA, NORTHWESTERN SONORA, AND THE U.S.
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS IN THE DESERTS, AND
LANDSLIDES IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT
POTENTIAL RAINFALL IN THAT AREA, PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER AND YOUR LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICE.

2. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 012037
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Rosa Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
200 PM PDT Mon Oct 01 2018

Rosa has no deep convection near its center, but there are plenty
of rain-bearing clouds over areas well to the north and northeast of
the center, including the northern Baja California peninsula,
Sonora, and portions of the southwestern United States. The
scatterometer recently missed Rosa, but assuming a steady spin down
since the last overpass 12 hours ago, the advisory intensity is set
at 35 kt. Continued weakening, due to very strong vertical shear,
cool waters, and then interaction with land, should reduce Rosa to a
tropical depression very soon. Rosa is likely to degenerate into a
remnant low over the southwestern United States tomorrow.

The cyclone continues moving north-northeastward, or 030/9 kt. The
track forecast philosophy is the same as in the previous advisory
package. The flow ahead of a broad mid-level trough should advect
Rosa, or its remnant, north-northeastward until dissipation. The
official track forecast continues to follow the multi-model
consensus closely.


Key Messages:

1. The main hazard expected from Rosa or its remnants is very heavy
rainfall in Baja California, northwestern Sonora, and the U.S.
Desert Southwest. These rains are expected to produce
life-threatening flash flooding and debris flows in the deserts, and
landslides in mountainous terrain. For more information about
potential rainfall in that area, please see products from the
Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office.

2. Tropical storm conditions are affecting portions of the
central and northern Baja California peninsula, especially over
higher elevations. These conditions could spread into the northern
Gulf of California later tonight. Interests in those locations
should monitor the progress of Rosa.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 28.1N 116.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 29.9N 115.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 02/1800Z 32.7N 114.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 03/0600Z 35.5N 113.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 012036 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ROSA ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
200 PM PDT MON OCT 01 2018

...ROSA EXPECTED TO CROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT...
...................BRINGING FLOODING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA,
SONORA,
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 116.2W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WNW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
................. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM
PUNTA
ABREOJOS
TO CABO SAN QUINTIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
................. EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM
BAHIA
DE
LOS
ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ROSA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ROSA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 116.2 WEST. ROSA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. ON THE


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 012036
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rosa Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
200 PM PDT Mon Oct 01 2018

...ROSA EXPECTED TO CROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT...
...BRINGING FLOODING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, SONORA,
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 116.2W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WNW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos
to Cabo San Quintin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los
Angeles to San Felipe

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Rosa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rosa was
located near latitude 28.1 North, longitude 116.2 West. Rosa is
moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Rosa will be near the coast of the
Baja California peninsula within the warning area later today and
then move across the peninsula into the northern Gulf of California
tonight. Rosa's remnants are then expected to move across the
Desert Southwest on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast through tonight while Rosa
approaches and moves over the northern Baja California peninsula.
Rosa is expected to become a remnant low over the southwestern
United States on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Rosa is expected to produce the following total rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday morning:

Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated
10 inches.

Central and Southern Arizona: 2 to 4 inches. Isolated 6 inch totals
are possible in the mountains of Central Arizona.

Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin:
1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash flooding.
Dangerous debris flows and landslides are also possible in
mountainous terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring over the coast
in portions of the warning area. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area by late this afternoon or tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula, and southern California through Tuesday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM PDT.
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 012036
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
2100 UTC MON OCT 01 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS
TO CABO SAN QUINTIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA DE LOS
ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ROSA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 116.2W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 130SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 180SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 116.2W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 116.3W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 29.9N 115.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 32.7N 114.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 35.5N 113.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.1N 116.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

....
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 011758 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ROSA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
1100 AM PDT MON OCT 01 2018

...ROSA BRINGING HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA, SONORA, AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 116.3W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM W OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS
TO CABO SAN QUINTIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA DE LOS
ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ROSA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ROSA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 116.3 WEST. ROSA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF ROSA WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF THE


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 011758
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rosa Intermediate Advisory Number 26A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
1100 AM PDT Mon Oct 01 2018

...ROSA BRINGING HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA, SONORA, AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 116.3W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM W OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos
to Cabo San Quintin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los
Angeles to San Felipe

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Rosa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM PDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rosa was
located near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 116.3 West. Rosa is
moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Rosa will be near the coast of the
Baja California peninsula within the warning later today and then
move across the peninsula into the northern Gulf of California
tonight. Rosa's remnants are then expected to move across the
Desert Southwest on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.
Weakening is forecast through tonight while Rosa approaches and
moves over the northern Baja California peninsula. Rosa is expected
to become a remnant low over the southwestern United States on
Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Rosa is expected to produce the following total rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday morning:

Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated
10 inches.

Central and Southern Arizona: 2 to 4 inches. Isolated 6 inch totals
are possible in the mountains of Central Arizona.

Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin:
1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash flooding.
Dangerous debris flows and landslides are also possible in
mountainous terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are spreading over the coast in
portions of the warning area. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area by late this afternoon or tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula, and southern California through Tuesday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 011432 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
800 AM PDT MON OCT 01 2018

MOST OF ROSA'S DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED NORTHEASTWARD
OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, SONORA, AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE ALREADY
OCCURRING OVER THOSE AREAS. ASSUMING A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE
CYCLONE SINCE THE LAST SCATTEROMETER OVERPASS, AND BLENDING DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB, GIVES A CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 40 KT. SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED
BY STRONG SHEAR, COOLER WATERS, AND THEN INTERACT WITH LAND,
CONTINUED WEAKENING IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ROSA IS
EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES ON TUESDAY.

THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD, OR 030/10 KT. ROSA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE STEERED ON THAT HEADING, TO THE EAST OF A
BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AFTER ROSA'S REMNANTS MOVE INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. THE MAIN HAZARD EXPECTED FROM ROSA OR ITS REMNANTS IS VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN BAJA CALIFORNIA, NORTHWESTERN SONORA, AND THE U.S.
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS IN THE DESERTS, AND
LANDSLIDES IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT
POTENTIAL RAINFALL IN THAT AREA, PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER AND YOUR LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICE.


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 011432
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Rosa Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
800 AM PDT Mon Oct 01 2018

Most of Rosa's deep convection has been sheared northeastward
over portions of the Baja California peninsula, Sonora, and the
southwestern United States. Locally heavy rains are already
occurring over those areas. Assuming a gradual weakening of the
cyclone since the last scatterometer overpass, and blending Dvorak
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, gives a current intensity
estimate of 40 kt. Since the cyclone will continue to be influenced
by strong shear, cooler waters, and then interact with land,
continued weakening is likely over the next day or so. Rosa is
expected to degenerate into a remnant low by the time it reaches the
southwestern United States on Tuesday.

The system is moving north-northeastward, or 030/10 kt. Rosa
should continue to be steered on that heading, to the east of a
broad mid-level trough off the California coast. Some increase in
forward speed is expected after Rosa's remnants move into the
Desert Southwest. The official track forecast remains very close to
the multi-model consensus.

Key Messages:

1. The main hazard expected from Rosa or its remnants is very heavy
rainfall in Baja California, northwestern Sonora, and the U.S.
Desert Southwest. These rains are expected to produce
life-threatening flash flooding and debris flows in the deserts, and
landslides in mountainous terrain. For more information about
potential rainfall in that area, please see products from the
Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office.

2. Tropical storm conditions are affecting portions of the
central and northern Baja California peninsula, especially over
higher elevations. These conditions could spread into the northern
Gulf of California later tonight. Interests in those locations
should monitor the progress of Rosa.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 27.5N 116.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 28.9N 115.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 31.3N 114.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 34.3N 112.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 03/1200Z 37.0N 112.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 011432 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ROSA ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
800 AM PDT MON OCT 01 2018

...ROSA NEARING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHILE BRINGING HEAVY
RAINS AND FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, SONORA, AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 116.5W
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM WSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS
TO CABO SAN QUINTIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA DE LOS
ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ROSA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ROSA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 116.5 WEST. ROSA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. ON THE


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 011432
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rosa Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
800 AM PDT Mon Oct 01 2018

...ROSA NEARING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHILE BRINGING HEAVY
RAINS AND FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, SONORA, AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 116.5W
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM WSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos
to Cabo San Quintin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los
Angeles to San Felipe

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Rosa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rosa was
located near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 116.5 West. Rosa is
moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Rosa will approach the central and
northern Baja California peninsula later today and then move across
the peninsula into the northern Gulf of California tonight. Rosa's
remnants are then expected to move across the Desert Southwest on
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Weakening is
forecast through tonight while Rosa approaches and moves over the
northern Baja California peninsula. Rosa is expected to become a
remnant low over the southwestern United States on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Rosa is expected to produce the following total rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated
10 inches.

Central and Southern Arizona: 2 to 4 inches. Isolated 6 inch totals
are possible in the mountains of Central Arizona.

Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin:
1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash flooding.
Dangerous debris flows and landslides are also possible in
mountainous terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are spreading over the coast in
portions of the warning area. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area by late this afternoon or tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula, and southern California through Tuesday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 AM PDT.
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 011431
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
1500 UTC MON OCT 01 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS
TO CABO SAN QUINTIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA DE LOS
ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ROSA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 116.5W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 130SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 180SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 116.5W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 116.7W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 28.9N 115.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 31.3N 114.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 34.3N 112.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 37.0N 112.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.5N 116.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

....
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 011153 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ROSA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
500 AM PDT MON OCT 01 2018

...ROSA BRINGING HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA, SONORA, AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 116.7W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS
TO CABO SAN QUINTIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA DE LOS
ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ROSA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM PDT (1200 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ROSA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 116.7 WEST. ROSA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, THE CENTER OF ROSA WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 011153
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rosa Intermediate Advisory Number 25A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
500 AM PDT Mon Oct 01 2018

...ROSA BRINGING HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA, SONORA, AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 116.7W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos
to Cabo San Quintin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los
Angeles to San Felipe

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Rosa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM PDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rosa was
located near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 116.7 West. Rosa is
moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Rosa will approach the central and northern
Baja California peninsula later today and then move across the
peninsula into the northern Gulf of California tonight. Rosa's
remnants are then expected to move across the Desert Southwest on
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast through tonight while Rosa approaches and
moves over the northern Baja California peninsula. Rosa is expected
to dissipate over northwestern Mexico or the southwestern United
States by Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Rosa is expected to produce the following total rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated
10 inches.

Central and Southern Arizona: 2 to 4 inches. Isolated 6 inch totals
are possible in the mountains of Central Arizona.

Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin:
1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash flooding.
Dangerous debris flows and landslides are also possible in
mountainous terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are beginning to spread over
the coast in portions of the warning area. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area by late this afternoon
or tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula, and southern California through Tuesday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 010839 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
200 AM PDT MON OCT 01 2018

CONVECTION HAS BEEN STEADILY DECREASING DUE TO THE COMBINATION
OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF ABOUT 30 KT AND COOL SSTS OF LESS THAN
24 DEG C. AS A RESULT, ONLY A SMALL PATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINS IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF ROSA'S CIRCULATION. ASCAT
PASSES AROUND 0414Z AND 0516Z ONLY INDICATED WIND SPEEDS OF 41-42 KT
IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. ASSUMING THAT SOME UNDERSAMPLING IS
OCCURRING, THE INTENSITY HAS ONLY BEEN DECREASED TO 45 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO A FURTHER INCREASE
IN THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING OCEAN TEMPERATURES BENEATH
THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ROSA TO BE
NEAR 35 KT AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL LATER TODAY, BUT IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT MORE WEAKENING COULD OCCUR THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.
REGARDLESS, STRONG TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ROSA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME REMNANT LOW BEFORE
THE CYCLONE REACHES ARIZONA DUE TO THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF BAJA AND
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO, AND THE CONTINUED STRONG WIND SHEAR.

ROSA IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD NOW, OR 035/10 KT. A NORTHEASTWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL AND AFTER LANDFALL,
WITH SOME ACCELERATION BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT. THE LATEST NHC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED, AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK LIES CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND AN AVERAGE OF THE TVCE,
HCCA, AND FSSE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AIDS.

KEY MESSAGES:


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 010839
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Rosa Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
200 AM PDT Mon Oct 01 2018

Convection has been steadily decreasing due to the combination
of southwesterly shear of about 30 kt and cool SSTs of less than
24 deg C. As a result, only a small patch of thunderstorms
remains in the northeastern quadrant of Rosa's circulation. ASCAT
passes around 0414Z and 0516Z only indicated wind speeds of 41-42 kt
in the eastern semicircle. Assuming that some undersampling is
occurring, the intensity has only been decreased to 45 kt for this
advisory. Additional weakening is expected due to a further increase
in the vertical wind shear and decreasing ocean temperatures beneath
the cyclone. The official intensity forecast calls for Rosa to be
near 35 kt at the time of landfall later today, but it is possible
that more weakening could occur than currently indicated.
Regardless, strong tropical-storm-force wind gusts will be
widespread across the higher elevations of the northern Baja
California peninsula. Rosa is expected to become remnant low before
the cyclone reaches Arizona due to the rugged terrain of Baja and
northwestern Mexico, and the continued strong wind shear.

Rosa is moving northeastward now, or 035/10 kt. A northeastward to
north-northeastward motion is expected until and after landfall,
with some acceleration beginning later tonight. The latest NHC
model guidance remains tightly clustered, and the official forecast
track lies close to the previous track and an average of the TVCE,
HCCA, and FSSE multi-model consensus aids.

Key Messages:

1. The main hazard expected from Rosa or its remnants is very heavy
rainfall in Baja California, northwestern Sonora, and the U.S.
Desert Southwest. These rains are expected to produce
life-threatening flash flooding and debris flows in the deserts, and
landslides in mountainous terrain. For more information about
potential rainfall in that area, please see products from the
Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
central and northern Baja California peninsula later today,
especially over higher elevations. These conditions could spread
into the northern Gulf of California later tonight. Interests in
those locations should monitor the progress of Rosa.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 26.7N 117.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 28.0N 116.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 30.1N 114.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND NRN BAJA CALIF
36H 02/1800Z 32.9N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 03/0600Z 35.9N 112.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 010838 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ROSA ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
200 AM PDT MON OCT 01 2018

...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...
................FLOODING, DEBRIS FLOWS, AND LANDSLIDES POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS
OF
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 117.0W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM WSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.............. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA
ABREOJOS
TO CABO SAN QUINTIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.............. EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA
DE
LOS
ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ROSA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ROSA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 117.0 WEST. ROSA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND THIS


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 010838
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rosa Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
200 AM PDT Mon Oct 01 2018

...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...
...FLOODING, DEBRIS FLOWS, AND LANDSLIDES POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 117.0W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM WSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos
to Cabo San Quintin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los
Angeles to San Felipe

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Rosa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rosa was
located near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 117.0 West. Rosa is
moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Rosa will approach the central and
northern Baja California peninsula later today and then move
across the peninsula into the northern Gulf of California tonight.
Rosa's remnants are then expected to move across the Desert
Southwest on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast through tonight while
Rosa approaches and moves over the northern Baja California
peninsula. Rosa is expected to dissipate over northwestern Mexico
or the southwestern United States by Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Rosa is expected to produce the following total rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated
10 inches.

Central and Southern Arizona: 2 to 4 inches. Isolated 6 inch totals
are possible in the mountains of Central Arizona.

Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin:
1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash flooding.
Dangerous debris flows and landslides are also possible in
mountainous terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by later this morning. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area by late this afternoon
or tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula, and southern California through Tuesday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 AM PDT.
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 010838 RRA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
0900 UTC MON OCT 01 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS
TO CABO SAN QUINTIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA DE LOS
ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ROSA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 117.0W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 130SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 117.0W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 117.3W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 28.0N 116.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 30.1N 114.8W...INLAND NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 32.9N 113.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND SW ARIZONA
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 35.9N 112.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND NRN ARIZONA
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 010838
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
0900 UTC MON OCT 01 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS
TO CABO SAN QUINTIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA DE LOS
ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ROSA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 117.0W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 130SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 117.0W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 117.3W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 28.0N 116.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 30.1N 114.8W...INLAND NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 32.9N 113.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND SW ARIZONA
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 35.9N 112.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND NRN ARIZONA
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.7N 117.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 010545 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ROSA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
1100 PM PDT SUN SEP 30 2018

...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO
THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...
.............FLOODING, DEBRIS FLOWS, AND LANDSLIDES POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS
OF
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 117.3W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM WSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
........... WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA
ABREOJOS
TO CABO SAN QUINTIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
........... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA DE
LOS
ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ROSA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM PDT (0600 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ROSA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 117.3 WEST. ROSA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND THIS


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 010545
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rosa Intermediate Advisory Number 24A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
1100 PM PDT Sun Sep 30 2018

...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO
THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...
...FLOODING, DEBRIS FLOWS, AND LANDSLIDES POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 117.3W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM WSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos
to Cabo San Quintin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los
Angeles to San Felipe

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Rosa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM PDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rosa was
located near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 117.3 West. Rosa is
moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Rosa will approach the central and
northern Baja California peninsula on Monday and then move across
the peninsula into the northern Gulf of California Monday night.
Rosa's remnants are then expected to move across the Desert
Southwest on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast through Monday night
while Rosa approaches and moves over the northern Baja California
peninsula. Rosa is expected to dissipate over northwestern Mexico
or the southwestern United States by Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Rosa is expected to produce the following total rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated
10 inches.

Central and Southern Arizona: 2 to 4 inches. Isolated 6 inch totals
are possible in the mountains of Central Arizona.

Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin:
1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash flooding.
Dangerous debris flows and landslides are also possible in
mountainous terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by Monday morning. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday or
Monday night.

SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula, and southern California through Tuesday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 010234 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 30 2018

ALL OF ROSA'S ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION, MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE
CENTER DUE TO 25-30 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY BUT ENCOMPASS A WIDE RANGE FROM ABOUT 45 KT TO 65 KT. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55 KT, THE AVERAGE OF THESE
ESTIMATES AND SIMILAR TO THE LATEST UW-CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE. ROSA'S
CENTER IS NOW OVER SUB-24C WATERS, HEADING FOR WATERS AROUND 21C
ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST, AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE FURTHER IN THE COMING DAYS. AS A RESULT, ROSA IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY BETWEEN 24-36 HOURS, AFTER
IT HAS REACHED THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. ALL OF THE CYCLONE'S DEEP
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE SHEARED AWAY SOON THEREAFTER, MAKING ROSA
A REMNANT LOW BETWEEN 36-48 HOURS, IF NOT SOONER. THE REMNANT LOW
SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER ARIZONA BY 48 HOURS.

ROSA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD, OR 025/10 KT. THE FLOW
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OFF THE
U.S. WEST COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER ROSA NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD,
WITH SOME ACCELERATION BEGINNING BY MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE STILL SOME SPEED DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS, PARTICULARLY
BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER ECMWF, THE GUIDANCE REMAINS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED OVERALL, AND THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AIDS.


KEY MESSAGES:


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 010234
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Rosa Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
800 PM PDT Sun Sep 30 2018

All of Rosa's associated deep convection is located within the
northeastern quadrant of the circulation, moving out ahead of the
center due to 25-30 kt of southwesterly shear. Subjective and
objective intensity estimates have decreased since the previous
advisory but encompass a wide range from about 45 kt to 65 kt. The
initial intensity is lowered to 55 kt, the average of these
estimates and similar to the latest UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate. Rosa's
center is now over sub-24C waters, heading for waters around 21C
along the Baja California coast, and the shear is forecast to
increase further in the coming days. As a result, Rosa is expected
to weaken below tropical storm intensity between 24-36 hours, after
it has reached the Baja California coast. All of the cyclone's deep
convection is likely to be sheared away soon thereafter, making Rosa
a remnant low between 36-48 hours, if not sooner. The remnant low
should dissipate over Arizona by 48 hours.

Rosa continues to move north-northeastward, or 025/10 kt. The flow
on the eastern side of a large mid-level trough located off the
U.S. West Coast should continue to steer Rosa north-northeastward,
with some acceleration beginning by Monday night. Although there
are still some speed differences among the models, particularly
between the faster GFS and slower ECMWF, the guidance remains
tightly clustered overall, and the new NHC track forecast is very
close to the multi-model consensus aids.


Key Messages:

1. The main hazard expected from Rosa or its remnants is very heavy
rainfall in Baja California, northwestern Sonora, and the U.S.
Desert Southwest. These rains are expected to produce
life-threatening flash flooding and debris flows in the deserts, and
landslides in mountainous terrain. For more information about
potential rainfall in that area, please see products from the
Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
central and northern Baja California peninsula on Monday, possibly
spreading to the northern Gulf of California Monday night.
Interests in those locations should monitor the progress of Rosa.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 26.0N 117.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 27.3N 116.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 29.1N 115.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 31.5N 114.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...NEAR THE SONORA COAST
48H 03/0000Z 34.2N 112.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 010233 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ROSA ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 30 2018

...HEAVY RAINS FROM ROSA APPROACHING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST...
.................FLOODING, DEBRIS FLOWS, AND LANDSLIDES POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS
OF
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 117.6W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
............... WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA
ABREOJOS
TO CABO SAN QUINTIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
............... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA
DE
LOS
ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ROSA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ROSA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 117.6 WEST. ROSA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. ON THE


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 010233
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rosa Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
800 PM PDT Sun Sep 30 2018

...HEAVY RAINS FROM ROSA APPROACHING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST...
...FLOODING, DEBRIS FLOWS, AND LANDSLIDES POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 117.6W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos
to Cabo San Quintin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los
Angeles to San Felipe

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Rosa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rosa was
located near latitude 26.0 North, longitude 117.6 West. Rosa is
moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Rosa will approach the central and
northern Baja California peninsula on Monday and then move across
the peninsula into the northern Gulf of California Monday night.
Rosa's remnants will then move across the Desert Southwest on
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast through Monday
night while Rosa approaches and moves over the northern Baja
California peninsula. Rosa is expected to dissipate over
northwestern Mexico or the southwestern United States by Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Rosa is expected to produce the following total rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated
10 inches.

Central and Southern Arizona: 2 to 4 inches. Isolated 6 inch totals
are possible in the mountains of Central Arizona.

Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin:
1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash flooding.
Dangerous debris flows and landslides are also possible in
mountainous terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by Monday morning. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday or
Monday night.

SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula, and southern California through Tuesday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM PDT.
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 010233 RRA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
0300 UTC MON OCT 01 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS
TO CABO SAN QUINTIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA DE LOS
ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ROSA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 117.6W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 130SE 90SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 117.6W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 117.9W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 27.3N 116.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 29.1N 115.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 31.5N 114.1W...NEAR THE SONORA COAST
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 34.2N 112.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 010233
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
0300 UTC MON OCT 01 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS
TO CABO SAN QUINTIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA DE LOS
ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ROSA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 117.6W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 130SE 90SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 117.6W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 117.9W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 27.3N 116.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 29.1N 115.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 31.5N 114.1W...NEAR THE SONORA COAST
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 34.2N 112.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.0N 117.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 302332 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ROSA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
500 PM PDT SUN SEP 30 2018

...ROSA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
...................FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO
AND
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 118.0W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
................. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM
PUNTA
ABREOJOS
TO CABO SAN QUINTIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
................. EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM
BAHIA
DE
LOS
ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ROSA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM PDT (0000 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ROSA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 118.0 WEST. ROSA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. ON THE


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 302332
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rosa Intermediate Advisory Number 23A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
500 PM PDT Sun Sep 30 2018

...ROSA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
...FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 118.0W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos
to Cabo San Quintin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los
Angeles to San Felipe

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Rosa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM PDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rosa was
located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 118.0 West. Rosa is
moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). This
general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Rosa will approach the central and
northern Baja California peninsula on Monday. Rosa's remnants will
then move across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next
couple of days while Rosa approaches and moves over the northern
Baja California peninsula. Rosa is expected to dissipate over
northwestern Mexico or the southwestern United States by Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center. An automated weather station on Isla Alijos,
located about 180 miles (290 km) off the coast of Baja California
Sur, reported a sustained wind of 49 mph (79 km/h) and a gust to 53
mph (85 km/h) during the past few hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: From late Sunday through Wednesday Rosa is expected to
produce the following total rainfall accumulations:

Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated
10 inches.

Central and Southern Arizona: 2 to 4 inches. Isolated 6 inch totals
are possible in the mountains of Central Arizona.

Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin:
1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash flooding.
Dangerous debris flows and landslides are also possible in
mountainous terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by Monday morning. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula, and southern California through Tuesday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 302200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 20E (ROSA) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 24.7N 118.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.7N 118.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 26.5N 117.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 28.1N 116.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 29.9N 115.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 32.3N 113.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 37.0N 112.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
302200Z POSITION NEAR 25.3N 118.1W.
HURRICANE 20E (ROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 485 NM SOUTH OF SAN
DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 23 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 010400Z, 011000Z, 011600Z AND 012200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21E (SERGIO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 302033 RRA
TCDEP5

HURRICANE ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 30 2018

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY
INVESTIGATED ROSA, AND FOUND PEAK 700-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS THAT
STILL SUPPORTED MINIMAL HURRICANE INTENSITY. HOWEVER, THE
SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WINDS WERE SOMEWHAT LOWER, WHICH IS NOT
SURPRISING SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION AND IS OVER
24-25 DEG SSTS. GIVEN THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS STILL FAIRLY
LOW, 982 MB, ROSA IS BEING MAINTAINED, PERHAPS GENEROUSLY, AS A
HURRICANE FOR THIS ADVISORY. WITH INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLER
WATERS AHEAD FOR THE SYSTEM, WEAKENING SEEMS INEVITABLE. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST HWRF MODEL
PREDICTION, AND SHOWS ROSA WEAKENING TO A DEPRESSION BY THE TIME IT
REACHES THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD, OR 025/10 KT. THE TRACK
FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
COUPLE OF ADVISORY PACKAGES. THE FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A
LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SHOULD STEER ROSA
ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.

THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED ON DATA FROM A
RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER OVERPASS.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. THE MAIN HAZARD EXPECTED FROM ROSA OR ITS REMNANTS IS VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN BAJA CALIFORNIA, NORTHWESTERN SONORA, AND THE U.S.
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS IN THE DESERTS, AND


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 302033
TCDEP5

Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
200 PM PDT Sun Sep 30 2018

An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently
investigated Rosa, and found peak 700-mb flight-level winds that
still supported minimal hurricane intensity. However, the
SFMR-observed surface winds were somewhat lower, which is not
surprising since the system has minimal deep convection and is over
24-25 deg SSTs. Given that the central pressure is still fairly
low, 982 mb, Rosa is being maintained, perhaps generously, as a
hurricane for this advisory. With increasing shear and cooler
waters ahead for the system, weakening seems inevitable. The
official intensity forecast is similar to the latest HWRF model
prediction, and shows Rosa weakening to a depression by the time it
reaches the southwest United States.

The initial motion is north-northeastward, or 025/10 kt. The track
forecast scenario remains essentially unchanged from the previous
couple of advisory packages. The flow on the eastern side of a
large mid-level trough approaching from the west should steer Rosa
on a north-northeastward track for the next couple of days. The
official track forecast is very close to the latest dynamical model
consensus.

The wind radii have been adjusted slightly based on data from a
recent ASCAT scatterometer overpass.

Key Messages:

1. The main hazard expected from Rosa or its remnants is very heavy
rainfall in Baja California, northwestern Sonora, and the U.S.
Desert Southwest. These rains are expected to produce
life-threatening flash flooding and debris flows in the deserts, and
landslides in mountainous terrain. For more information about
potential rainfall in that area, please see products from the
Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
central and northern Baja California peninsula on Monday, possibly
spreading to the northern Gulf of California Monday night.
Interests in those locations should monitor the progress of Rosa.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 25.2N 118.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 26.5N 117.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 28.1N 116.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 29.9N 115.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 02/1800Z 32.3N 113.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 03/1800Z 37.0N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 302033 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ROSA ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 30 2018

...ROSA EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLOODING RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 118.1W
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS
TO CABO SAN QUINTIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA DE LOS
ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ROSA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ROSA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 118.1 WEST. ROSA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, THE CENTER OF ROSA WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 302033
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rosa Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
200 PM PDT Sun Sep 30 2018

...ROSA EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLOODING RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 118.1W
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos
to Cabo San Quintin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los
Angeles to San Felipe

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Rosa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rosa was located
near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 118.1 West. Rosa is moving
toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Rosa will approach the central and northern
Baja California peninsula on Monday. Rosa's remnants will then move
across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Rosa is expected to become a tropical storm by this evening.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: From late Sunday through Wednesday Rosa is expected to
produce the following total rainfall accumulations:

Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated
10 inches.

Central and Southern Arizona: 2 to 4 inches. Isolated 6 inch totals
are possible in the mountains of Central Arizona.

Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin:
1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash flooding.
Dangerous debris flows and landslides are also possible in
mountainous terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by Monday morning. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula, and southern California through Tuesday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM PDT.
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 302032 RRA
TCMEP5

HURRICANE ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
2100 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS
TO CABO SAN QUINTIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA DE LOS
ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ROSA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 118.1W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 70SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 140SE 90SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 270SE 240SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 118.1W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 118.4W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 26.5N 117.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 28.1N 116.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 29.9N 115.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 70SE 40SW 0NW.


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 302032
TCMEP5

HURRICANE ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
2100 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS
TO CABO SAN QUINTIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA DE LOS
ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ROSA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 118.1W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 70SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 140SE 90SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 270SE 240SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 118.1W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 118.4W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 26.5N 117.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 28.1N 116.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 29.9N 115.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 70SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 32.3N 113.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 37.0N 112.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.2N 118.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 301753 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ROSA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
1100 AM PDT SUN SEP 30 2018

...ROSA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BUT STILL BRING FLOODING RAINS ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 118.4W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 485 MI...785 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS
TO CABO SAN QUINTIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA DE LOS
ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ROSA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ROSA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 118.4 WEST. ROSA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H). THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, THE CENTER OF ROSA WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 301753
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rosa Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 30 2018

...ROSA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BUT STILL BRING FLOODING RAINS ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 118.4W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 485 MI...785 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos
to Cabo San Quintin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los
Angeles to San Felipe

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Rosa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM PDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rosa was located
near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 118.4 West. Rosa is moving
toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Rosa will approach the central and northern
Baja California peninsula on Monday. Rosa's remnants will then move
across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Rosa is expected to become a tropical storm by this evening.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 982 mb (29.00 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Over the next few days, Rosa is expected to produce the
following total rainfall accumulations:

Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated
10 inches.

The Mogollon Rim of Arizona: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin:
1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts would produce life-threatening flash flooding
and dangerous debris flows in the deserts, as well as landslides in
mountainous terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by Monday morning. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula, and southern California through Tuesday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 301432 RRA
TCDEP5

HURRICANE ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
800 AM PDT SUN SEP 30 2018

ROSA CONTINUES TO BE AFFECTED BY INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND
COOLER WATERS. MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ERODED OVER
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS REDUCED TO 65 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH ADT ESTIMATES FROM
UW/CIMSS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE ROSA LATER TODAY TO PROVIDE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. SINCE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS PREDICTED TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SSTS SHOULD COOL TO BELOW 23 DEG C BY
MONDAY, ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY BEFORE ROSA REACHES THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR
THE HIGH END OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING JUST EAST OF NORTH, OR AROUND 010/11 KT.
THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY PACKAGE. ROSA IS LIKELY TO BE STEERED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. THIS SHOULD TAKE THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE ACROSS BAJA
CALIFORNIA IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT.
ROSA OR IT'S REMNANT SHOULD MOVE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON
TUESDAY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. THE MAIN HAZARD EXPECTED FROM ROSA OR ITS REMNANTS IS VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN BAJA CALIFORNIA, NORTHWESTERN SONORA, AND THE U.S.
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS IN THE DESERTS, AND


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 301432
TCDEP5

Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
800 AM PDT Sun Sep 30 2018

Rosa continues to be affected by increasing southwesterly shear and
cooler waters. Most of the deep convection has been eroded over
the southern semicircle of the circulation. The current intensity
estimate is reduced to 65 kt in agreement with ADT estimates from
UW/CIMSS. An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft will
investigate Rosa later today to provide a better estimate of the
intensity of the system. Since the vertical shear is predicted to
continue to increase and SSTs should cool to below 23 deg C by
Monday, additional weakening is likely before Rosa reaches the
Baja California peninsula. The official intensity forecast is near
the high end of the numerical guidance.

The hurricane is moving just east of north, or around 010/11 kt.
The track forecast reasoning is unchanged from the previous
advisory package. Rosa is likely to be steered north-northeastward
in the flow ahead of a large mid-level trough approaching from the
west. This should take the center of the cyclone across Baja
California in the Tropical Storm Warning area by Monday night.
Rosa or it's remnant should move over the Desert Southwest on
Tuesday. The official track forecast is similar to the previous
one and roughly in the middle of the dynamical guidance.

Key Messages:

1. The main hazard expected from Rosa or its remnants is very heavy
rainfall in Baja California, northwestern Sonora, and the U.S.
Desert Southwest. These rains are expected to produce
life-threatening flash flooding and debris flows in the deserts, and
landslides in mountainous terrain. For more information about
potential rainfall in that area, please see products from the
Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
central and northern Baja California peninsula on Monday, possibly
spreading to the northern Gulf of California Monday night.
Interests in those locations should monitor the progress of Rosa.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 24.4N 118.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 25.9N 117.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 27.5N 116.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 29.3N 115.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 31.8N 114.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 03/1200Z 36.5N 111.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 301431 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ROSA ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
800 AM PDT SUN SEP 30 2018

...ROSA WEAKER BUT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLOODING RAINS ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 118.6W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 510 MI...825 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS
TO CABO SAN QUINTIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA DE LOS
ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ROSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS
MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 301431
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rosa Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
800 AM PDT Sun Sep 30 2018

...ROSA WEAKER BUT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLOODING RAINS ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 118.6W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 510 MI...825 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos
to Cabo San Quintin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los
Angeles to San Felipe

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Rosa. Additional watches or warnings may be required later this
morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rosa was located
near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 118.6 West. Rosa is moving
toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A north-northeastward
motion is expected to begin later today and continue through
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Rosa will approach
the central and northern Baja California peninsula on Monday.
Rosa's remnants will then move quickly across the Desert Southwest
on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days, and Rosa is expected to become a tropical storm by this
evening.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Over the next few days, Rosa is expected to produce the
following total rainfall accumulations:

Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated
10 inches.

The Mogollon Rim of Arizona: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin:
1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts would produce life-threatening flash flooding
and dangerous debris flows in the deserts, as well as landslides in
mountainous terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by Monday morning. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula, and southern California through Tuesday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 AM PDT.
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 301431 RRA
TCMEP5

HURRICANE ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
1500 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS
TO CABO SAN QUINTIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA DE LOS
ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ROSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS
MORNING.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 118.6W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 130SE 70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 118.6W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 118.8W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 25.9N 117.9W


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 301431
TCMEP5

HURRICANE ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
1500 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS
TO CABO SAN QUINTIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA DE LOS
ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ROSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS
MORNING.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 118.6W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 130SE 70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 118.6W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 118.8W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 25.9N 117.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 27.5N 116.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 29.3N 115.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 31.8N 114.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 36.5N 111.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 118.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 301201 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ROSA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A...RETRANSMITTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
500 AM PDT SUN SEP 30 2018

...ROSA EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLOODING RAINS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 118.7W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 550 MI...890 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS
TO CABO SAN QUINTIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA DE LOS
ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ROSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS
MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 301201
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rosa Intermediate Advisory Number 21A...Retransmitted
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
500 AM PDT Sun Sep 30 2018

...ROSA EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLOODING RAINS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 118.7W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 550 MI...890 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos
to Cabo San Quintin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los
Angeles to San Felipe

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Rosa. Additional watches or warnings may be required later this
morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM PDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rosa was located
near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 118.7 West. Rosa is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A north-northeastward
motion is expected to begin later today and continue through
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Rosa will approach
the central and northern Baja California peninsula on Monday. Rosa's
remnants will then move quickly across the Desert Southwest on
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with
higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days,
and Rosa is expected to become a tropical storm by this evening.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Over the next few days, Rosa is expected to produce the
following total rainfall accumulations:

Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated
10 inches.

The Mogollon Rim of Arizona: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin:
1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts would produce life-threatening flash flooding
and dangerous debris flows in the deserts, as well as landslides in
mountainous terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by Monday morning. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula, and southern California through Tuesday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 301151 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ROSA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
500 AM PDT SUN SEP 30 2018

...ROSA EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLOODING RAINS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 118.7W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 550 MI...890 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS
TO CABO SAN QUINTIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA DE LOS
ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ROSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS
MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 301151
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rosa Intermediate Advisory Number 21A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
500 AM PDT Sun Sep 30 2018

...ROSA EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLOODING RAINS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 118.7W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 550 MI...890 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos
to Cabo San Quintin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los
Angeles to San Felipe

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Rosa. Additional watches or warnings may be required later this
morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM PDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rosa was located
near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 118.7 West. Rosa is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A north-northeastward
motion is expected to begin later today and continue through
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Rosa will approach
the central and northern Baja California peninsula on Monday.
Rosa's remnants will then move quickly across the Desert Southwest
on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Rosa is expected to become a tropical storm by this evening.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Over the next few days, Rosa is expected to produce the
following total rainfall accumulations:

Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated
10 inches.

The Mogollon Rim of Arizona: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin:
1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts would produce life-threatening flash flooding
and dangerous debris flows in the deserts, as well as landslides in
mountainous terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by Monday morning. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula, and southern California through Tuesday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$

Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 300840 RRA
TCDEP5

HURRICANE ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
200 AM PDT SUN SEP 30 2018

INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE A CONTINUED EROSION
OF ROSA'S INNER-CORE STRUCTURE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NEAR 20 KT ALONG WITH COLDER WATER
BENEATH THE HURRICANE AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE INTENSITY WAS ASSESSED AS 80 KT AT 0600
UTC BASED ON THE HIGH-END ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND UW-CIMSS ADT AND
SATCON, BUT SINCE THEN THE RAPID EROSION OF THE EYE FEATURE AND
STRONG NORTHEASTWARD TILT TO THE VORTEX COLUMN NOTED IN MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS A LOWER ESTIMATE OF 75 KT FOR THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY.

THIS INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 005/10 KT. ROSA IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF A DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 24 H OR SO, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AS A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. AS THE LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS CONTINUE
TO DECOUPLE, ROSA SHOULD ESSENTIALLY MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT FORWARD
SPEED UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS IN 36-48 HOURS DUE TO THE CYCLONE NOT
BEING INFLUENCED BY THE FASTER DEEP-LAYER STEERING FLOW. THE NEW NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK,
AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS MODELS HCCA AND IVCN. A 72-HOUR
FORECAST POSITION CONTINUES TO BE PROVIDED FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES,
BUT ROSA'S SURFACE CIRCULATION IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE BEFORE THAT
TIME OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO OR SOUTHERN ARIZONA, WITH THE
MID-LEVEL REMNANTS CONTINUING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 300840
TCDEP5

Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
200 AM PDT Sun Sep 30 2018

Infrared and microwave satellite images indicate a continued erosion
of Rosa's inner-core structure since the previous advisory due to
southwesterly vertical wind shear near 20 kt along with colder water
beneath the hurricane and entrainment of drier mid-level air in the
southwestern quadrant. The intensity was assessed as 80 kt at 0600
UTC based on the high-end estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS ADT and
SATCON, but since then the rapid erosion of the eye feature and
strong northeastward tilt to the vortex column noted in microwave
imagery suggests a lower estimate of 75 kt for the advisory
intensity.

This initial motion estimate is 005/10 kt. Rosa is forecast to
continue moving northward around the western edge of a deep-layer
ridge for the next 24 h or so, followed by a turn toward the
north-northeast on Tuesday as a mid-/upper-level trough approaches
from the west. As the low- and upper-level circulations continue
to decouple, Rosa should essentially maintain its current forward
speed until landfall occurs in 36-48 hours due to the cyclone not
being influenced by the faster deep-layer steering flow. The new NHC
track forecast is a little slower than the previous advisory track,
and closely follows the consensus models HCCA and IVCN. A 72-hour
forecast position continues to be provided for continuity purposes,
but Rosa's surface circulation is likely to dissipate before that
time over northwestern Mexico or southern Arizona, with the
mid-level remnants continuing northward across the Desert Southwest
and Intermountain West.

Rosa is now moving over waters colder than 25 deg C, with colder
water near 22 deg C ahead of the cyclone just prior to landfall.
The combination of increasing wind shear, cooler waters and drier
and more stable air being entrained from the west should result in
steady or even rapid weakening of the cyclone until landfall occurs.
The official forecast follows the sharp weakening trend indciated in
the previous advisory, which is supported by the latest intensity
guidance. Rosa is expected to devolve into an exposed low-level
center with the associated deep convection being sheared off to its
north and northeast by the time it is nearing the Baja California
coast on Monday. However, it will take some time for the
circulation to spin down, and Rosa is still expected to bring
tropical-storm-force winds to portions of Baja California in 36-48
hours.

Key Messages:

1. The main hazard expected from Rosa or its remnants is very heavy
rainfall in Baja California, northwestern Sonora, and the U.S.
Desert Southwest. These rains are expected to produce
life-threatening flash flooding and debris flows in the deserts, and
landslides in mountainous terrain. For more information about
potential rainfall in that area, please see products from the
Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
central and northern Baja California peninsula on Monday, possibly
spreading to the northern Gulf of California Monday night.
Interests in those locations should monitor the progress of Rosa.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 23.3N 118.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 24.8N 118.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 26.5N 117.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 28.3N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 30.6N 114.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 37.2N 110.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 300839 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ROSA ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
200 AM PDT SUN SEP 30 2018

...ROSA WEAKENING AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD OVER COLDER WATERS...
...............FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND
THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 118.8W
ABOUT 385 MI...625 KM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
............. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA
ABREOJOS
TO CABO SAN QUINTIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
............. EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA
DE
LOS
ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ROSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS
MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 300839
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rosa Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
200 AM PDT Sun Sep 30 2018

...ROSA WEAKENING AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD OVER COLDER WATERS...
...FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 118.8W
ABOUT 385 MI...625 KM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos
to Cabo San Quintin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los
Angeles to San Felipe

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Rosa. Additional watches or warnings may be required later this
morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rosa was located
near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 118.8 West. Rosa is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected
to continue through this morning. A north-northeastward motion is
expected to begin on Monday afternoon and continue through Tuesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Rosa will approach the central
and northern Baja California peninsula on Monday. Rosa's remnants
will then move quickly across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next
couple of days, and Rosa is expected to become a tropical storm by
this evening.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Over the next few days, Rosa is expected to produce the
following total rainfall accumulations:

Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated
10 inches.

The Mogollon Rim of Arizona: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin:
1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts would produce life-threatening flash flooding
and dangerous debris flows in the deserts, as well as landslides in
mountainous terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by Monday morning. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula, and southern California from today through
Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 AM PDT.
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 300838 RRA
TCMEP5

HURRICANE ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
0900 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS
TO CABO SAN QUINTIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA DE LOS
ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ROSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS
MORNING.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 118.8W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 130SE 70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 118.8W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 118.9W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.8N 118.3W


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 300838
TCMEP5

HURRICANE ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
0900 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS
TO CABO SAN QUINTIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA DE LOS
ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ROSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS
MORNING.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 118.8W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 130SE 70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 118.8W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 118.9W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.8N 118.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 26.5N 117.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 28.3N 116.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 30.6N 114.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 37.2N 110.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 118.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 300555 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ROSA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
1100 PM PDT SAT SEP 29 2018

...FLOODING RAINS FROM ROSA EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 118.9W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 620 MI...1000 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS
TO CABO SAN QUINTIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA DE LOS
ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ROSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED ON SUNDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 300555
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rosa Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
1100 PM PDT Sat Sep 29 2018

...FLOODING RAINS FROM ROSA EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 118.9W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 620 MI...1000 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos
to Cabo San Quintin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los
Angeles to San Felipe

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Rosa. Additional watches or warnings may be required on Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM PDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Rosa was located
near latitude 22.8 North, longitude 118.9 West. Rosa is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected
to continue through Sunday morning. A north-northeastward motion is
expected to begin on Sunday and continue through Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Rosa will approach the central and
northern Baja California peninsula on Monday. Rosa's remnants will
then move quickly across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady weakening is forecast during the next couple of days,
and Rosa is expected to become a tropical storm late Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Between late Sunday and the middle of next week, Rosa is
expected to produce the following total rainfall accumulations:

Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated
10 inches.

The Mogollon Rim of Arizona: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin:
1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts would produce life-threatening flash flooding
and dangerous debris flows in the deserts, as well as landslides in
mountainous terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by Monday morning. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula, and southern California during this weekend
and early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 300238 RRA
TCDEP5

HURRICANE ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 29 2018

RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ROSA'S STRUCTURE HAS BEGUN TO
DETERIORATE AS A RESULT OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR. DESPITE THE
COLD CLOUD TOPS NOTED IN INFRARED IMAGERY, THE HURRICANE'S EYEWALL
IS OPEN ON THE SOUTH SIDE, AND THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE
BANDING WITHIN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION. THE VARIOUS
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE EITHER HELD
STEADY OR FALLEN A BIT FROM SIX HOURS AGO, AND GIVEN THE MICROWAVE
SIGNATURE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 85 KT.

ROSA IS MOVING NORTHWARD, OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 KT, ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND
ACCELERATE SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS AS IT IS STEERED
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED
OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS
CLUSTERED FAIRLY TIGHTLY, ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS NOTABLY SLOWER THAN
THE REST OF THE MODELS, TAKING A LITTLE LONGER TO BRING ROSA'S
CENTER TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK
FORECAST WAS NUDGED SOUTHEASTWARD BEYOND 36 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE, AND IT SHOWS ROSA REACHING THE COAST IN
ABOUT 48 HOURS. A 72-HOUR FORECAST IS PROVIDED FOR CONTINUITY, BUT
ROSA'S SURFACE CIRCULATION IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE BEFORE THAT TIME
OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO OR SOUTHERN ARIZONA, WITH THE MID-LEVEL
REMNANTS CONTINUING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 300238
TCDEP5

Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
800 PM PDT Sat Sep 29 2018

Recent microwave images indicate that Rosa's structure has begun to
deteriorate as a result of increasing southerly shear. Despite the
cold cloud tops noted in infrared imagery, the hurricane's eyewall
is open on the south side, and there is very little convective
banding within the southern half of the circulation. The various
subjective and objective intensity estimates have either held
steady or fallen a bit from six hours ago, and given the microwave
signature, the initial intensity is lowered to 85 kt.

Rosa is moving northward, or 360 degrees at 10 kt, along the
western edge of a subtropical ridge which extends across northern
Mexico. The cyclone is forecast to turn north-northeastward and
accelerate slightly during the next 48-72 hours as it is steered
between the ridge and a large mid- to upper-level trough located
off the west coast of the United States. The track guidance is
clustered fairly tightly, although the ECMWF is notably slower than
the rest of the models, taking a little longer to bring Rosa's
center to the Baja California peninsula. The updated NHC track
forecast was nudged southeastward beyond 36 hours to account for
the latest model guidance, and it shows Rosa reaching the coast in
about 48 hours. A 72-hour forecast is provided for continuity, but
Rosa's surface circulation is likely to dissipate before that time
over northwestern Mexico or southern Arizona, with the mid-level
remnants continuing northward across the Desert Southwest and
Intermountain West.

Rosa is now over waters colder than 26 degrees Celsius, and
combined with increasing vertical shear, the cyclone's intensity is
expected to decrease quickly, with rapid weakening even a
possibility beginning on Sunday. The official forecast follows the
sharp weakening trend noted in the guidance, and it's actually
slightly above the intensity consensus at a few forecast times.
Rosa is likely to devolve into an exposed low-level center with the
associated deep convection being sheared off to its north and
northeast by the time it is nearing the Baja California coast on
Monday. However, it will take some time for the circulation to spin
down, and Rosa is still expected to bring tropical-storm-force winds
to portions of Baja California in 36-48 hours. Based on the new
track and intensity forecast, a Tropical Storm Warning and Watch has
been issued for portions of the west and east coast of the Baja
California peninsula, respectively.


Key Messages:

1. The main hazard expected from Rosa or its remnants is very heavy
rainfall in Baja California, northwestern Sonora, and the U.S.
Desert Southwest. These rains are expected to produce
life-threatening flash flooding and debris flows in the deserts, and
landslides in mountainous terrain. For more information about
potential rainfall in that area, please see products from the
Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
central and northern Baja California peninsula on Monday, possibly
spreading to the northern Gulf of California Monday night.
Interests in those locations should monitor the progress of Rosa.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 22.4N 118.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 23.9N 118.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 25.7N 117.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 27.5N 116.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 29.6N 115.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
72H 03/0000Z 35.7N 111.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 300238 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ROSA ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 29 2018

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
................FLOODING RAINS FROM ROSA EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO
AND
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 118.9W
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA
ABREOJOS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA DE LOS
ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.............. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA
ABREOJOS
TO CABO SAN QUINTIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.............. EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA
DE
LOS
ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 300238
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rosa Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
800 PM PDT Sat Sep 29 2018

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...FLOODING RAINS FROM ROSA EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 118.9W
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch
along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta
Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin to a Tropical Storm Warning.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch along
the east coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los
Angeles to San Felipe.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos
to Cabo San Quintin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los
Angeles to San Felipe

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Rosa. Additional watches or warnings may be required on Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Rosa was located
near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 118.9 West. Rosa is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected
to continue through Sunday morning. A north-northeastward motion
is expected to begin on Sunday and continue through Tuesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Rosa will approach the central
and northern Baja California peninsula on Monday. Rosa's remnants
will then move quickly across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the
next couple of days, and Rosa is expected to become a tropical
storm late Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Between late Sunday and the middle of next week, Rosa is
expected to produce the following total rainfall accumulations:

Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated
10 inches.

The Mogollon Rim of Arizona: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin:
1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts would produce life-threatening flash flooding
and dangerous debris flows in the deserts, as well as landslides in
mountainous terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by Monday morning. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula, and southern California during this weekend
and early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM PDT.
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 300237 RRA
TCMEP5

HURRICANE ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
0300 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA
ABREOJOS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA DE LOS
ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS
TO CABO SAN QUINTIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA DE LOS
ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ROSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 118.9W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 130SE 70SW 100NW.


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 300237
TCMEP5

HURRICANE ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
0300 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA
ABREOJOS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA DE LOS
ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS
TO CABO SAN QUINTIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA DE LOS
ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ROSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 118.9W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 130SE 70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 118.9W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 118.9W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.9N 118.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 25.7N 117.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 27.5N 116.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 29.6N 115.3W...OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 35.7N 111.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 118.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 292332 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ROSA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
500 PM PDT SAT SEP 29 2018

...FLOODING RAINS FROM ROSA EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 118.9W
ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM SSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 675 MI...1090 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS
TO CABO SAN QUINTIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ROSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES
AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM PDT (0000 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ROSA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 118.9 WEST. ROSA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 292332
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rosa Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
500 PM PDT Sat Sep 29 2018

...FLOODING RAINS FROM ROSA EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 118.9W
ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM SSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 675 MI...1090 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Pacific Coast of the Baja California Peninsula from Punta Abreojos
to Cabo San Quintin

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula should monitor the progress of Rosa. Additional watches
and warnings may be required this evening or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM PDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rosa was located
near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 118.9 West. Rosa is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected on
Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Rosa will approach the
central and northern Baja California peninsula on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rosa is expected to start weakening tonight, becoming a
tropical storm by late Sunday or Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Between late Sunday and the middle of next week, Rosa is
expected to produce the following total rainfall accumulations:

Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated
10 inches.

The Mogollon Rim of Arizona: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin:
1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts would produce life-threatening flash flooding
and dangerous debris flows in the deserts, as well as landslides in
mountainous terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, most of the Baja California peninsula, and
southern California during this weekend and early next week. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 292042 RRA
TCDEP5

HURRICANE ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 29 2018

THE STRENGTHENING TREND SEEN EARLIER HAS AT LEAST SLOWED, AS ROSA
HAS SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.
THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO HAVE A WELL-DEFINED 30-40 N MI WIDE EYE
INSIDE A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -75C.
THE VARIOUS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE CHANGED LITTLE, SO
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 90 KT. THE HURRICANE HAS GOOD TO
EXCELLENT CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE, AND THE
OUTFLOW HAS RECENTLY IMPROVED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE.

ROSA IS NOW CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM, SO ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING APPEARS UNLIKELY. AFTER 12 H, THE COMBINATION OF
DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD
CAUSE STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING, AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CONTINUES TO CALL FOR THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH
BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN JUST
OVER 48 H. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE NEAR THE 72-H POINT IN AGREEMENT WITH ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS. HOWEVER, THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND THE ASSOCIATED
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
AFTER THE SURFACE CIRCULATION DISSIPATES.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/10. DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE
HURRICANE WILL RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE ADJACENT PACIFIC. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
CONTINUED NORTHWARD MOTION THROUGH TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A TURN


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 292042
TCDEP5

Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
200 PM PDT Sat Sep 29 2018

The strengthening trend seen earlier has at least slowed, as Rosa
has shown little change in organization since the last advisory.
The hurricane continues to have a well-defined 30-40 n mi wide eye
inside a central dense overcast with cloud tops as cold as -75C.
The various satellite intensity estimates have changed little, so
the initial intensity remains 90 kt. The hurricane has good to
excellent cirrus outflow in the northeastern semicircle, and the
outflow has recently improved in the southwestern semicircle.

Rosa is now crossing the 26C isotherm, so additional significant
strengthening appears unlikely. After 12 h, the combination of
decreasing sea surface temperatures and increasing shear should
cause steady to rapid weakening, and the intensity forecast
continues to call for the cyclone to weaken below hurricane strength
before the center reaches the Baja California peninsula in just
over 48 h. After landfall, the surface circulation is forecast to
dissipate near the 72-h point in agreement with all of the dynamical
models. However, the mid-level circulation and the associated
rainfall will continue moving across the southwestern United States
after the surface circulation dissipates.

The initial motion is 350/10. During the forecast period, the
hurricane will recurve into the westerlies between a deep-layer
ridge over northern Mexico and a large mid- to upper-level trough
over California and the adjacent Pacific. This should result in a
continued northward motion through tonight, followed by a turn
toward the north-northeast on Sunday. The new forecast track is
a little to the left of the previous track for the first 12 h, but
otherwise is changed little from the previous track. On the
forecast track, the center of Rosa or its remnants will move near or
over the central and northern portions the Baja California peninsula
on Monday and Monday night, and then move into the southwestern
United States on Tuesday.


Key Messages:

1. The main hazard expected from Rosa or its remnants is very heavy
rainfall in Baja California, northwestern Mexico, and the Desert
Southwest. These rains are expected to produce life-threatening
flash flooding and debris flows in the deserts, and landslides in
mountainous terrain. For more information about potential rainfall
in that area, please see products from the Weather Prediction Center
and your local NWS forecast office.

2. Rosa could also bring tropical storm conditions to portions of
the central and northern Baja California peninsula starting on
Monday. Interests in those locations should monitor the progress of
Rosa.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 21.4N 118.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 22.9N 118.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 24.8N 118.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 26.7N 117.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 28.8N 116.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 34.5N 113.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 292041 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ROSA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 29 2018

...ROSA STILL MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...
...............HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 118.7W
ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM SSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
............. PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM
PUNTA
ABREOJOS
TO CABO SAN QUINTIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ROSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES
AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ROSA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 118.7 WEST. ROSA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 292041
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rosa Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
200 PM PDT Sat Sep 29 2018

...ROSA STILL MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 118.7W
ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM SSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Pacific Coast of the Baja California Peninsula from Punta Abreojos
to Cabo San Quintin

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula should monitor the progress of Rosa. Additional watches
and warnings may be required for this area later today or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rosa was located
near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 118.7 West. Rosa is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected on
Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Rosa will approach the
central and northern Baja California peninsula on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rosa is expected to start weakening tonight, and it is
expected to weaken to a tropical storm by late Sunday or Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Between late Sunday and the middle of next week, Rosa is
expected to produce the following total rainfall accumulations:

Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated
10 inches.

The Mogollon Rim of Arizona: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin:
1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts would produce life-threatening flash flooding
and dangerous debris flows in the deserts, as well as landslides in
mountainous terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, most of the Baja California Peninsula, and
southern California during this weekend and early next week. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM PDT.
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 292041 RRA
TCMEP5

HURRICANE ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
2100 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS
TO CABO SAN QUINTIN

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ROSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES
AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 118.7W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
EYE DIAMETER 35 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 140SE 70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 118.7W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 118.7W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.9N 118.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.8N 118.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 292041
TCMEP5

HURRICANE ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
2100 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS
TO CABO SAN QUINTIN

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ROSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES
AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 118.7W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
EYE DIAMETER 35 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 140SE 70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 118.7W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 118.7W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.9N 118.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.8N 118.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 26.7N 117.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 28.8N 116.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 34.5N 113.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 118.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 291734 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ROSA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
1100 AM PDT SAT SEP 29 2018

...ROSA CONTINUING NORTHWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
................HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 118.5W
ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM SSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.............. PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM
PUNTA
ABREOJOS
TO CABO SAN QUINTIN

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ROSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES
AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ROSA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 118.5 WEST. ROSA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 291734
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rosa Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
1100 AM PDT Sat Sep 29 2018

...ROSA CONTINUING NORTHWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 118.5W
ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM SSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Pacific Coast of the Baja California Peninsula from Punta Abreojos
to Cabo San Quintin

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula should monitor the progress of Rosa. Additional watches
and warnings may be required for this area later today or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM PDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rosa was located
near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 118.5 West. Rosa is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected on
Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Rosa will approach the
central and northern Baja California peninsula on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rosa is expected to start weakening tonight, and it is
expected to weaken to a tropical storm by late Sunday or Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Between late Sunday and the middle of next week, Rosa is
expected to produce the following total rainfall accumulations:

Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated
10 inches.

The Mogollon Rim of Arizona: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin:
1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts would produce life-threatening flash flooding
and dangerous debris flows in the deserts, as well as landslides in
mountainous terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, most of the Baja California Peninsula, and
southern California during this weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 291559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 29.09.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.9N 102.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP962018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.09.2018 0 11.9N 102.7W 1005 24
0000UTC 30.09.2018 12 11.6N 104.0W 1003 25
1200UTC 30.09.2018 24 11.6N 105.7W 1002 27
0000UTC 01.10.2018 36 11.6N 108.0W 998 38
1200UTC 01.10.2018 48 11.1N 110.2W 992 46
0000UTC 02.10.2018 60 11.1N 112.8W 979 70
1200UTC 02.10.2018 72 11.3N 115.3W 968 79
0000UTC 03.10.2018 84 12.3N 117.8W 977 67
1200UTC 03.10.2018 96 13.1N 119.7W 976 66
0000UTC 04.10.2018 108 14.3N 121.3W 975 61
1200UTC 04.10.2018 120 15.7N 123.0W 969 66
0000UTC 05.10.2018 132 16.4N 124.4W 969 59
1200UTC 05.10.2018 144 17.1N 125.5W 966 67

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97C ANALYSED POSITION : 12.2N 157.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP972018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.09.2018 0 12.2N 157.8W 1005 31
0000UTC 30.09.2018 12 12.1N 161.0W 1003 37
1200UTC 30.09.2018 24 11.7N 164.7W 999 35
0000UTC 01.10.2018 36 11.9N 167.6W 989 48
1200UTC 01.10.2018 48 12.4N 170.1W 979 57
0000UTC 02.10.2018 60 13.8N 171.4W 962 70
1200UTC 02.10.2018 72 15.2N 172.3W 955 71
0000UTC 03.10.2018 84 16.8N 172.5W 947 78
1200UTC 03.10.2018 96 18.9N 171.6W 945 75
0000UTC 04.10.2018 108 21.6N 170.4W 934 92
1200UTC 04.10.2018 120 23.0N 170.4W 946 78
0000UTC 05.10.2018 132 23.4N 170.9W 948 75
1200UTC 05.10.2018 144 23.8N 171.1W 953 71

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 34.5N 51.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.09.2018 0 34.5N 51.0W 991 37
0000UTC 30.09.2018 12 33.9N 51.6W 991 39
1200UTC 30.09.2018 24 33.4N 52.9W 991 42
0000UTC 01.10.2018 36 33.0N 53.4W 992 43
1200UTC 01.10.2018 48 33.0N 54.4W 987 49
0000UTC 02.10.2018 60 33.0N 54.6W 980 54
1200UTC 02.10.2018 72 31.9N 55.1W 974 59
0000UTC 03.10.2018 84 31.4N 54.6W 963 61
1200UTC 03.10.2018 96 31.7N 54.6W 954 66
0000UTC 04.10.2018 108 32.7N 54.1W 949 68
1200UTC 04.10.2018 120 34.2N 52.2W 950 71
0000UTC 05.10.2018 132 36.2N 49.9W 949 67
1200UTC 05.10.2018 144 38.1N 46.7W 950 63

HURRICANE ROSA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.8N 118.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.09.2018 0 19.8N 118.4W 966 66
0000UTC 30.09.2018 12 22.2N 119.0W 971 58
1200UTC 30.09.2018 24 24.2N 118.8W 977 57
0000UTC 01.10.2018 36 26.1N 117.6W 988 48
1200UTC 01.10.2018 48 28.0N 115.9W 998 33
0000UTC 02.10.2018 60 31.3N 114.0W 1002 31
1200UTC 02.10.2018 72 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 291559


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 291559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 29.09.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.9N 102.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP962018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.09.2018 11.9N 102.7W WEAK
00UTC 30.09.2018 11.6N 104.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2018 11.6N 105.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.10.2018 11.6N 108.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.10.2018 11.1N 110.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.10.2018 11.1N 112.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 02.10.2018 11.3N 115.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.10.2018 12.3N 117.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.10.2018 13.1N 119.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.10.2018 14.3N 121.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.10.2018 15.7N 123.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.10.2018 16.4N 124.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.10.2018 17.1N 125.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97C ANALYSED POSITION : 12.2N 157.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP972018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.09.2018 12.2N 157.8W WEAK
00UTC 30.09.2018 12.1N 161.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2018 11.7N 164.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.10.2018 11.9N 167.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.10.2018 12.4N 170.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.10.2018 13.8N 171.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 02.10.2018 15.2N 172.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.10.2018 16.8N 172.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.10.2018 18.9N 171.6W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.10.2018 21.6N 170.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.10.2018 23.0N 170.4W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 05.10.2018 23.4N 170.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.10.2018 23.8N 171.1W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 34.5N 51.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.09.2018 34.5N 51.0W MODERATE
00UTC 30.09.2018 33.9N 51.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2018 33.4N 52.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.10.2018 33.0N 53.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.10.2018 33.0N 54.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.10.2018 33.0N 54.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.10.2018 31.9N 55.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.10.2018 31.4N 54.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.10.2018 31.7N 54.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.10.2018 32.7N 54.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.10.2018 34.2N 52.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.10.2018 36.2N 49.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.10.2018 38.1N 46.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

HURRICANE ROSA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.8N 118.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.09.2018 19.8N 118.4W STRONG
00UTC 30.09.2018 22.2N 119.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.09.2018 24.2N 118.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.10.2018 26.1N 117.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.10.2018 28.0N 115.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.10.2018 31.3N 114.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 291559


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 291449 RRA
TCDEP5

HURRICANE ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 29 2018

ROSA HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS, LIKELY DUE TO THE COMPLETION OF AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE BEFORE THE CENTER MOVED OVER COLD WATER. THE
STORM NOW HAS A 30-40 N MI WIDE EYE, AND THE EYEWALL CONVECTIVE TOPS
HAVE BECOME MUCH COLDER AND MORE SYMMETRIC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 90 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF VARIOUS SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES, AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS INTENSITY IS
CONSERVATIVE. THE HURRICANE HAS GOOD TO EXCELLENT CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN
THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.

THE CURRENT RE-INTENSIFICATION WAS POORLY ANTICIPATED, AND IT IS
UNCLEAR HOW MUCH MORE STRENGTHENING WILL OCCUR BEFORE ROSA REACHES
THE 26C ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 12 H. EVEN IF THE HURRICANE STRENGTHENS
A LITTLE MORE, THE COMBINATION OF DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE STEADY TO RAPID
WEAKENING AFTER 12 H, AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR
THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE THE CENTER
REACHES THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BETWEEN 48-72 H. AFTER
LANDFALL, ROSA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN EVEN FASTER, AND THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE JUST AFTER 72 H IN AGREEMENT
WITH ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. HOWEVER, THE MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND THE ASSOCIATED RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AFTER THE SURFACE CIRCULATION
DISSIPATES.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 355/10. DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE
HURRICANE WILL RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 291449
TCDEP5

Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
800 AM PDT Sat Sep 29 2018

Rosa has become significantly better organized during the last
several hours, likely due to the completion of an eyewall
replacement cycle before the center moved over cold water. The
storm now has a 30-40 n mi wide eye, and the eyewall convective tops
have become much colder and more symmetric. The initial intensity
has been increased to 90 kt based on a blend of various satellite
intensity estimates, and it is possible that this intensity is
conservative. The hurricane has good to excellent cirrus outflow in
the northeastern semicircle.

The current re-intensification was poorly anticipated, and it is
unclear how much more strengthening will occur before Rosa reaches
the 26C isotherm in about 12 h. Even if the hurricane strengthens
a little more, the combination of decreasing sea surface
temperatures and increasing shear should cause steady to rapid
weakening after 12 h, and the new intensity forecast still calls for
the cyclone to weaken below hurricane strength before the center
reaches the Baja California peninsula between 48-72 h. After
landfall, Rosa is expected to weaken even faster, and the surface
circulation is forecast to dissipate just after 72 h in agreement
with all of the dynamical models. However, the mid-level
circulation and the associated rainfall will continue moving across
the southwestern United States after the surface circulation
dissipates.

The initial motion is now 355/10. During the forecast period, the
hurricane will recurve into the westerlies between a deep-layer
ridge over northern Mexico and a large mid- to upper-level trough
over California and the adjacent Pacific. This should result in a
continued northward motion through tonight, followed by a turn
toward the north-northeast on Sunday. The new forecast track is
similar to, but a little faster than, the previous track and lies
near the consensus models. On the forecast track, the center of
Rosa will move near or over the central and northern portions the
Baja California peninsula on Monday and Monday night, and then move
into the southwestern United States on Tuesday.


Key Messages:

1. The main hazard expected from Rosa or its remnants is very heavy
rainfall in Baja California, northwestern Mexico, and the Desert
Southwest. These rains are expected to produce life-threatening
flash flooding and debris flows in the deserts, and landslides in
mountainous terrain. For more information about potential rainfall
in that area, please see products from the Weather Prediction Center
and your local NWS forecast office.

2. Rosa could also bring tropical storm conditions to portions of
the central and northern Baja California peninsula starting on
Monday. Interests in those locations should monitor the progress of
Rosa.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 20.5N 118.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 22.0N 118.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 23.9N 118.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 25.9N 117.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 27.7N 116.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 33.0N 114.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 291448 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ROSA ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 29 2018

...ROSA RE-INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD...
.......HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 118.4W
ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM SSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 760 MI...1220 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS
TO CABO SAN QUINTIN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
..... PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA
ABREOJOS
TO CABO SAN QUINTIN

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ROSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES
AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ROSA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 118.4 WEST. ROSA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 291448
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rosa Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
800 AM PDT Sat Sep 29 2018

...ROSA RE-INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 118.4W
ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM SSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 760 MI...1220 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
Pacific Coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos
to Cabo San Quintin.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Pacific Coast of the Baja California Peninsula from Punta Abreojos
to Cabo San Quintin

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula should monitor the progress of Rosa. Additional watches
and warnings may be required for this area later today or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rosa was located
near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 118.4 West. Rosa is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected on
Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Rosa will approach
the central and northern Baja California peninsula on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rosa is expected to start weakening tonight, and it is
expected to weaken to a tropical storm late Sunday or on Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Between late Sunday and the middle of next week, Rosa is
expected to produce the following total rainfall accumulations:

Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated
10 inches.

The Mogollon Rim of Arizona: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin:
1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts would produce life-threatening flash flooding
and dangerous debris flows in the deserts, as well as landslides in
mountainous terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, most of the Baja California Peninsula, and
southern California during this weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 AM PDT.
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 291447 RRA
TCMEP5

HURRICANE ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
1500 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS
TO CABO SAN QUINTIN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS
TO CABO SAN QUINTIN

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ROSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES
AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 118.4W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
EYE DIAMETER 40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 140SE 70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE 210SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 118.4W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 118.4W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.0N 118.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.9N 118.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 291447
TCMEP5

HURRICANE ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
1500 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS
TO CABO SAN QUINTIN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS
TO CABO SAN QUINTIN

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ROSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES
AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 118.4W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
EYE DIAMETER 40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 140SE 70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE 210SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 118.4W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 118.4W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.0N 118.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.9N 118.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 25.9N 117.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 27.7N 116.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 33.0N 114.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 118.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 291600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 20E (ROSA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 20.0N 118.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 118.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 22.0N 118.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 23.9N 118.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 25.9N 117.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 27.7N 116.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 33.0N 114.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
291600Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 118.5W.
HURRICANE 20E (ROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 765 NM SOUTH OF SAN
DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 29 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 292200Z, 300400Z, 301000Z AND 301600Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 291000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 20E (ROSA) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 20E (ROSA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 18.8N 118.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8N 118.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 20.5N 118.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 22.5N 118.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 24.4N 118.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 26.2N 117.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 30.9N 115.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 38.0N 111.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
291000Z POSITION NEAR 19.4N 118.2W.
HURRICANE 20E (ROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 836 NM SOUTH OF SAN
DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 291600Z, 292200Z, 300400Z AND 301000Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 290840 RRA
TCDEP5

HURRICANE ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 29 2018

ROSA'S SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS DEGRADED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH AN EYE NO LONGER EVIDENT IN INFRARED IMAGERY.
HOWEVER, A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL EYE IS EVIDENT IN RECENT PASSIVE
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. A COMPARISON OF THE TWO DATA SOURCES INDICATE
THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS TILTED TO THE EAST OF THE
LOW-LEVEL EYE BY 12-18 NMI DUE TO WESTERLY SHEAR OF ABOUT 15 KT AS
ASSESSED BY UW-CIMSS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KT IS BASED ON A
BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FORM TAFB, SAB, AND UW-CIMSS
ADT AND SATCON.

ROSA IS MOVING NORTHWARD NOW AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
350/08 KT. DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS, THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WESTWARD TO BAJA CALIFORNIA, RESULTING IN A
NORTHWARD MOTION TODAY, AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT A
FASTER FORWARD SPEED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE LATEST NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
PACKED ABOUT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK, SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WERE REQUIRED. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO A BLEND OF
THE CONSENSUS MODELS HCCA, FSSE, AND IVCN.

ROSA'S INTENSITY HAS DECREASED 40 KT DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS, WITH
THE BULK OF THE WEAKENING HAVING OCCURRED DURING THE PAST 18 HOURS,
AND ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE CYCLONE MOVING OVER
COOLER WATER AND INTO A REGIME OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OF MORE THAN 30 KT BY 48 HOURS. ALTHOUGH ROSA IS


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 290840
TCDEP5

Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
200 AM PDT Sat Sep 29 2018

Rosa's satellite appearance has degraded significantly since the
previous advisory with an eye no longer evident in infrared imagery.
However, a well-defined low-level eye is evident in recent passive
microwave imagery. A comparison of the two data sources indicate
that the upper-level circulation is tilted to the east of the
low-level eye by 12-18 nmi due to westerly shear of about 15 kt as
assessed by UW-CIMSS. The initial intensity of 85 kt is based on a
blend of satellite intensity estimates form TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS
ADT and SATCON.

Rosa is moving northward now and the initial motion estimate is
350/08 kt. During the next 72 hours, the hurricane is forecast to
move around the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge that extends
from the Gulf of Mexico westward to Baja California, resulting in a
northward motion today, and a turn toward the north-northeast at a
faster forward speed on Monday and Tuesday as a mid-latitude trough
approaches from the west. The latest NHC model guidance is tightly
packed about the previous forecast track, so no significant changes
were required. The new NHC track forecast lies close to a blend of
the consensus models HCCA, FSSE, and IVCN.

Rosa's intensity has decreased 40 kt during the past 24 hours, with
the bulk of the weakening having occurred during the past 18 hours,
and additional weakening is expected due to the cyclone moving over
cooler water and into a regime of increasing southwesterly vertical
wind shear of more than 30 kt by 48 hours. Although Rosa is
currently located over 28 deg C SSTs, the depth of the warm water is
quite shallow, so cold upwelling occurring beneath the hurricane
will act to hasten the weakening process today. Rosa is forecast to
approach Baja California as a tropical storm, and then quickly
degenerate into a tropical and a remnant low as the cyclone moves
across the mountainous terrain of northern Baja California and
northwestern mainland Mexico. The official intensity forecast
closely follows the intensity consensus models IVCN and HCCA.

Key Messages:

1. The main hazard expected from Rosa or its remnants is very heavy
rainfall in Baja California, northwestern Mexico, and the Desert
Southwest. These rains are expected to produce life-threatening
flash flooding and debris flows in the deserts, and landslides in
mountainous terrain. For more information about potential rainfall
in that area, please see products from the Weather Prediction Center
and your local NWS forecast office.

2. Rosa could also bring tropical storm conditions to portions of
the central and northern Baja California peninsula in a couple of
days. Interests in those locations should monitor the progress of
Rosa.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 19.2N 118.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 20.5N 118.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 22.5N 118.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 24.4N 118.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 26.2N 117.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 30.9N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND NRN BAJA CALIF
96H 03/0600Z 38.0N 111.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 290839 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ROSA ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 29 2018

...ROSA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN...
...............HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 118.2W
ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM SSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 840 MI...1355 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ROSA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD
BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER THIS
MORNING.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ROSA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 118.2 WEST. ROSA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, THE CENTER OF ROSA WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH (155 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
72 HOURS, AND ROSA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY LATE
SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 290839
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rosa Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
200 AM PDT Sat Sep 29 2018

...ROSA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 118.2W
ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM SSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 840 MI...1355 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern and central Baja California peninsula
should monitor the progress of Rosa. A Tropical Storm Watch could
be required for portions of western Baja California later this
morning.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rosa was located
near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 118.2 West. Rosa is moving
toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue today. A turn toward the north-northeast with
an increase in forward speed is expected on Monday. On the forecast
track, the center of Rosa will be approaching central and northern
Baja California on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next
72 hours, and Rosa is expected to become a tropical storm by late
Sunday or early Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Between late Sunday and the middle of next week, Rosa is
expected to produce rainfall amounts of:

3 to 6 inches with isolated totals to 10 inches from Baja California
into northwestern Sonora
2 to 4 inches with isolated totals to 6 inches in the Mogollon Rim
of Arizona
1 to 2 inches with isolated totals to 4 inches elsewhere across the
Desert Southwest, central Rockies, and Great Basin.

These rainfall amounts would produce life-threatening flash flooding
and dangerous debris flows in the deserts, as well as landslides in
mountainous terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, most of the Baja California Peninsula, and
southern California during this weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 290839 RRA
TCMEP5

HURRICANE ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
0900 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ROSA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD
BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER THIS
MORNING.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 118.2W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 140SE 70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 270SE 240SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 118.2W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 118.1W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.5N 118.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.5N 118.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.4N 118.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 26.2N 117.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 30.9N 115.0W...INLAND NORTHERN BAJA CALIF


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 290839
TCMEP5

HURRICANE ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
0900 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ROSA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD
BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER THIS
MORNING.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 118.2W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 140SE 70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 270SE 240SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 118.2W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 118.1W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.5N 118.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.5N 118.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.4N 118.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 26.2N 117.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 30.9N 115.0W...INLAND NORTHERN BAJA CALIF
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 38.0N 111.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 118.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 290359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 29.09.2018

TROPICAL STORM 96E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.9N 99.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP962018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.09.2018 0 11.9N 99.6W 1006 29
1200UTC 29.09.2018 12 11.9N 102.4W 1005 24
0000UTC 30.09.2018 24 12.1N 104.0W 1003 26
1200UTC 30.09.2018 36 12.0N 106.3W 1001 32
0000UTC 01.10.2018 48 11.9N 108.5W 995 40
1200UTC 01.10.2018 60 12.0N 110.6W 982 66
0000UTC 02.10.2018 72 12.1N 113.1W 974 67
1200UTC 02.10.2018 84 12.4N 115.2W 974 67
0000UTC 03.10.2018 96 13.5N 117.2W 980 62
1200UTC 03.10.2018 108 14.7N 119.5W 977 63
0000UTC 04.10.2018 120 15.0N 120.9W 973 53
1200UTC 04.10.2018 132 15.8N 121.5W 973 58
0000UTC 05.10.2018 144 16.5N 122.3W 970 62

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97C ANALYSED POSITION : 12.5N 154.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP972018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.09.2018 0 12.5N 154.9W 1005 28
1200UTC 29.09.2018 12 12.4N 157.5W 1004 33
0000UTC 30.09.2018 24 12.4N 161.0W 1001 38
1200UTC 30.09.2018 36 11.9N 165.0W 996 40
0000UTC 01.10.2018 48 11.9N 167.9W 984 53
1200UTC 01.10.2018 60 12.6N 170.4W 972 62
0000UTC 02.10.2018 72 13.9N 171.8W 963 68
1200UTC 02.10.2018 84 15.3N 172.9W 959 69
0000UTC 03.10.2018 96 16.7N 173.4W 955 71
1200UTC 03.10.2018 108 18.6N 172.9W 945 78
0000UTC 04.10.2018 120 20.7N 172.6W 936 83
1200UTC 04.10.2018 132 21.4N 173.6W 936 82
0000UTC 05.10.2018 144 22.1N 175.3W 934 83

TROPICAL STORM KIRK ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 64.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.09.2018 0 15.0N 64.9W 1007 37
1200UTC 29.09.2018 12 15.3N 67.9W 1008 29
0000UTC 30.09.2018 24 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 35.8N 48.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.09.2018 0 35.8N 48.8W 991 41
1200UTC 29.09.2018 12 34.4N 51.0W 990 37
0000UTC 30.09.2018 24 33.9N 51.4W 989 45
1200UTC 30.09.2018 36 33.6N 52.9W 990 41
0000UTC 01.10.2018 48 33.4N 53.9W 990 47
1200UTC 01.10.2018 60 33.5N 55.1W 987 52
0000UTC 02.10.2018 72 32.8N 55.8W 979 54
1200UTC 02.10.2018 84 31.4N 56.5W 973 58
0000UTC 03.10.2018 96 30.2N 56.7W 964 66
1200UTC 03.10.2018 108 30.4N 56.5W 950 71
0000UTC 04.10.2018 120 31.6N 56.2W 943 74
1200UTC 04.10.2018 132 33.3N 55.5W 943 68
0000UTC 05.10.2018 144 34.9N 54.8W 945 70

HURRICANE ROSA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.0N 117.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.09.2018 0 18.0N 117.9W 975 53
1200UTC 29.09.2018 12 19.7N 118.6W 974 58
0000UTC 30.09.2018 24 21.4N 118.9W 974 56
1200UTC 30.09.2018 36 23.2N 118.8W 976 55
0000UTC 01.10.2018 48 25.0N 118.1W 984 47
1200UTC 01.10.2018 60 26.7N 117.0W 994 36
0000UTC 02.10.2018 72 28.8N 116.5W 999 30
1200UTC 02.10.2018 84 32.2N 114.6W 1005 30
0000UTC 03.10.2018 96 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 14.3N 124.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.10.2018 60 14.5N 123.8W 1007 21
0000UTC 02.10.2018 72 14.1N 123.1W 1006 20
1200UTC 02.10.2018 84 13.9N 122.7W 1006 23
0000UTC 03.10.2018 96 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 290359


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 290359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 29.09.2018

TROPICAL STORM 96E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.9N 99.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP962018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.09.2018 11.9N 99.6W WEAK
12UTC 29.09.2018 11.9N 102.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2018 12.1N 104.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2018 12.0N 106.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.10.2018 11.9N 108.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.10.2018 12.0N 110.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 02.10.2018 12.1N 113.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.10.2018 12.4N 115.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.10.2018 13.5N 117.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.10.2018 14.7N 119.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.10.2018 15.0N 120.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.10.2018 15.8N 121.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.10.2018 16.5N 122.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97C ANALYSED POSITION : 12.5N 154.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP972018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.09.2018 12.5N 154.9W WEAK
12UTC 29.09.2018 12.4N 157.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2018 12.4N 161.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2018 11.9N 165.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.10.2018 11.9N 167.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.10.2018 12.6N 170.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 02.10.2018 13.9N 171.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.10.2018 15.3N 172.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.10.2018 16.7N 173.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.10.2018 18.6N 172.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.10.2018 20.7N 172.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.10.2018 21.4N 173.6W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.10.2018 22.1N 175.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM KIRK ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 64.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.09.2018 15.0N 64.9W WEAK
12UTC 29.09.2018 15.3N 67.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 35.8N 48.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.09.2018 35.8N 48.8W MODERATE
12UTC 29.09.2018 34.4N 51.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2018 33.9N 51.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2018 33.6N 52.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.10.2018 33.4N 53.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.10.2018 33.5N 55.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.10.2018 32.8N 55.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.10.2018 31.4N 56.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.10.2018 30.2N 56.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.10.2018 30.4N 56.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 04.10.2018 31.6N 56.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.10.2018 33.3N 55.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.10.2018 34.9N 54.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

HURRICANE ROSA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.0N 117.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.09.2018 18.0N 117.9W STRONG
12UTC 29.09.2018 19.7N 118.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2018 21.4N 118.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2018 23.2N 118.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.10.2018 25.0N 118.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.10.2018 26.7N 117.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.10.2018 28.8N 116.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.10.2018 32.2N 114.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 14.3N 124.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.10.2018 14.5N 123.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.10.2018 14.1N 123.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.10.2018 13.9N 122.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 290359


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 290242 RRA
TCDEP5

HURRICANE ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 28 2018

THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF ROSA CONTINUES TO DEGRADE DUE TO AN
ONGOING EYEWALL CYCLE WITH WEAKER CONVECTION NOTED NEAR THE
EYEWALL AND AN APPARENT MOAT REGION. DVORAK ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO
FALL, AND A BLEND FROM ALL AGENCIES GIVES 95 KT AS AN INITIAL WIND
SPEED. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS IN THE FORECAST WHILE ROSA MOVES
ACROSS PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SSTS INTO A HIGHER SHEAR AND DRIER
ENVIRONMENT. THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT THE WEAKENING COULD PAUSE IF
THE EYEWALL CYCLE FINISHES, BUT THAT'S LESS LIKELY AS THE CYCLONE
ENCOUNTERS THE LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THUS ROSA IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL IT APPROACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA AS
A TROPICAL STORM. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS SCENARIO, AND THE NEW NHC PREDICTION IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF
THE PREVIOUS ONE AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR THE INITIAL WINDS.

ROSA HAS TURNED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND ACCELERATED, WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION OF 340/8. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTH
TOMORROW AND MOVE FASTER TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES. THERE ARE NO SUBSTANTIAL GUIDANCE CHANGES TO CONSIDER, AND
WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS BEING QUITE RELIABLE SO FAR, IT MAKES
SENSE TO STAY NEAR THAT AID, WHICH IS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. THE MAIN HAZARD EXPECTED FROM ROSA OR ITS REMNANTS IS VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN BAJA CALIFORNIA, NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 290242
TCDEP5

Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
800 PM PDT Fri Sep 28 2018

The satellite appearance of Rosa continues to degrade due to an
ongoing eyewall cycle with weaker convection noted near the
eyewall and an apparent moat region. Dvorak estimates continue to
fall, and a blend from all agencies gives 95 kt as an initial wind
speed. Continued weakening is in the forecast while Rosa moves
across progressively cooler SSTs into a higher shear and drier
environment. There is some chance that the weakening could pause if
the eyewall cycle finishes, but that's less likely as the cyclone
encounters the less favorable environment. Thus Rosa is forecast to
continue to gradually weaken until it approaches Baja California as
a tropical storm. The intensity guidance is in good agreement on
this scenario, and the new NHC prediction is basically an update of
the previous one after accounting for the initial winds.

Rosa has turned to the north-northwest and accelerated, with an
initial motion of 340/8. The cyclone should turn to the north
tomorrow and move faster to the north-northeast on Sunday ahead of a
mid- to upper-level trough approaching the west coast of the United
States. There are no substantial guidance changes to consider, and
with the model consensus being quite reliable so far, it makes
sense to stay near that aid, which is also very close to the
previous forecast.

Key Messages:

1. The main hazard expected from Rosa or its remnants is very heavy
rainfall in Baja California, northwestern Mexico and the Desert
Southwest. These rains are expected to produce life-threatening
flash flooding and debris flows in the deserts and landslides in
mountainous terrain. For more information about potential rainfall
in that area, please see products from the Weather Prediction Center
and your local NWS forecast office.

2. Rosa could also bring tropical storm conditions to portions of
the central and northern Baja California peninsula in a few days.
Interests in those locations should monitor the progress of Rosa.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 18.4N 118.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 19.5N 118.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 21.4N 118.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 23.3N 118.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 25.1N 117.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 28.9N 116.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 36.0N 112.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 290241 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ROSA ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 28 2018

...ROSA EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAIN TO BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 118.0W
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ROSA.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE ROSA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 118.0 WEST. ROSA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF ROSA WILL BE
APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH (175 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 72
HOURS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES
(295 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB (28.47 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 290241
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rosa Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
800 PM PDT Fri Sep 28 2018

...ROSA EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAIN TO BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 118.0W
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern and central Baja California peninsula
should monitor the progress of Rosa.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Rosa was located
near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 118.0 West. Rosa is moving
toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the
north is expected overnight, followed by a turn toward the
north-northeast with a slight increase in forward speed by early
next week. On the forecast track the center of Rosa will be
approaching Baja California on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 110 mph (175 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 72
hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Rosa is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 3 to
6 inches from Baja California State into northwest Mexico from late
in the weekend into midweek with possible isolated maximum amounts
of 10 inches. For the Desert Southwest, amounts of 1 to 3 inches
with local amounts to 6 inches are expected. This rainfall will
produce life-threatening flash flooding and debris flows in the
deserts and landslides in mountainous terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, the southern Baja California Peninsula, and
southern California late this week and over the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 290241 RRA
TCMEP5

HURRICANE ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
0300 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ROSA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 118.0W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......110NE 160SE 80SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 270SE 240SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 118.0W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 117.9W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 19.5N 118.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.4N 118.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.3N 118.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 25.1N 117.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 28.9N 116.1W


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 290241
TCMEP5

HURRICANE ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
0300 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ROSA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 118.0W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......110NE 160SE 80SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 270SE 240SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 118.0W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 117.9W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 19.5N 118.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.4N 118.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.3N 118.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 25.1N 117.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 28.9N 116.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 90SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 36.0N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 118.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 282055 RRA
TCDEP5

HURRICANE ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 28 2018

ROSA'S APPEARANCE HAS RAPIDLY DETERIORATED SINCE THIS MORNING.
THERE IS STILL EVIDENCE OF AN ONGOING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE,
AND AN APPARENT MOAT REGION HAS OCCASIONALLY BEEN APPARENT IN
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE DATA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE SLOW
MOTION OF THE HURRICANE SINCE LAST NIGHT COULD ALSO BE CAUSING
UPWELLING THAT WOULD LEAD TO FURTHER WEAKENING. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE DROPPED SUBSTANTIALLY
ACCORDINGLY, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 105 KT,
BASED ON A BLEND OF FINAL-T AND CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB.

ROSA IS STILL MOVING NORTHWESTWARD, WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF
325/5 KT. THE MODEL SPREAD HAS INCREASED A LITTLE, WITH THE GFS AND
ITS ASSOCIATED REGIONAL MODELS SHOWING A SLIGHTLY RIGHT (SOUTHEAST)
TRACK, COMPARED TO EARLIER CYCLES, WHILE THE ECMWF HAS SHIFTED AN
EQUAL AMOUNT TO THE LEFT (NORTHWEST). THE CONSENSUS MODELS HAVE NOT
CHANGED MUCH AS A RESULT OF THESE OFFSETTING MODEL TRENDS, SO ALMOST
NO CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE NHC TRACK FORECAST. ROSA IS STILL EXPECTED
TO TURN NORTHWARD, AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE CYCLONE
SHOULD THEN ACCELERATE A LITTLE AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN COAST
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THIS POINT, THE STRUCTURE OF ROSA HAS DEGRADED TO THE POINT THAT
SUBSTANTIAL RESTRENGTHENING APPEARS UNLIKELY. SINCE THE HURRICANE
STILL HAS ABOUT 24-36 HOURS BEFORE IT REACHES MUCH COOLER SSTS,


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 282055
TCDEP5

Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
200 PM PDT Fri Sep 28 2018

Rosa's appearance has rapidly deteriorated since this morning.
There is still evidence of an ongoing eyewall replacement cycle,
and an apparent moat region has occasionally been apparent in
conventional satellite data during the past several hours. The slow
motion of the hurricane since last night could also be causing
upwelling that would lead to further weakening. Satellite
intensity estimates from all agencies have dropped substantially
accordingly, and the initial intensity has been lowered to 105 kt,
based on a blend of Final-T and CI numbers from TAFB and SAB.

Rosa is still moving northwestward, with an initial motion of
325/5 kt. The model spread has increased a little, with the GFS and
its associated regional models showing a slightly right (southeast)
track, compared to earlier cycles, while the ECMWF has shifted an
equal amount to the left (northwest). The consensus models have not
changed much as a result of these offsetting model trends, so almost
no change was made to the NHC track forecast. Rosa is still expected
to turn northward, and then north-northeastward ahead of a mid- to
upper-level trough approaching from the northwest. The cyclone
should then accelerate a little as it approaches the northern coast
of the Baja California peninsula early next week.

At this point, the structure of Rosa has degraded to the point that
substantial restrengthening appears unlikely. Since the hurricane
still has about 24-36 hours before it reaches much cooler SSTs,
only gradual weakening is forecast, though most of the intensity
guidance shows more rapid weakening than currently indicated.
After that time, a more rapid rate of weakening could occur due to
cooler SSTs and an increase in wind shear associated with an
upper-level trough approaching from the west.

By early next week, Rosa is forecast to move inland over northern
Baja California, and its surface circulation will likely dissipate
shortly thereafter. However, moisture associated with Rosa is
expected to spread northeastward through parts of the southwest
United States. For more information about potential rainfall in
that area, please see products from the Weather Prediction Center
and your local NWS forecast office.

Key Messages:

1. Rosa could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the
central and northern Baja California peninsula in a few days.
Interests in those locations should monitor the progress of Rosa.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Rosa or its remnants is expected
to affect parts of the southwest United States by early next week,
which could cause flooding in this region. For more information
about potential rainfall and flooding, please see products from the
Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 17.7N 117.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 18.6N 118.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 20.3N 118.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 22.1N 118.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 24.0N 118.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 27.7N 116.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 32.3N 114.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 282054 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ROSA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 28 2018

...ROSA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WHILE WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 117.8W
ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ROSA.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ROSA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 117.8 WEST. ROSA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH (195 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ROSA IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND ROSA COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES
(295 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB (28.20 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 282054
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rosa Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
200 PM PDT Fri Sep 28 2018

...ROSA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WHILE WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 117.8W
ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern and central Baja California peninsula
should monitor the progress of Rosa.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rosa was located
near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 117.8 West. Rosa is moving
toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the north
is expected overnight, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast
with a slight increase in forward speed by early next week.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 120 mph (195 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rosa is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional weakening is
anticipated over the next few days, and Rosa could become a
tropical storm by the end of the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, the southern Baja California Peninsula, and
southern California late this week and over the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 282053 RRA
TCMEP5

HURRICANE ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
2100 UTC FRI SEP 28 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 117.8W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......110NE 160SE 80SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 117.8W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 117.7W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.6N 118.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 160SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.3N 118.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.1N 118.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.0N 118.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 27.7N 116.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 282053
TCMEP5

HURRICANE ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
2100 UTC FRI SEP 28 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 117.8W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......110NE 160SE 80SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 117.8W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 117.7W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.6N 118.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 160SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.3N 118.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.1N 118.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.0N 118.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 27.7N 116.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 32.3N 114.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 117.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 281557

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 28.09.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97C ANALYSED POSITION : 12.0N 151.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP972018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.09.2018 0 12.0N 151.5W 1006 23
0000UTC 29.09.2018 12 12.7N 154.5W 1004 29
1200UTC 29.09.2018 24 12.8N 157.5W 1002 37
0000UTC 30.09.2018 36 12.6N 161.2W 999 39
1200UTC 30.09.2018 48 12.0N 164.7W 994 43
0000UTC 01.10.2018 60 11.9N 167.8W 979 58
1200UTC 01.10.2018 72 12.4N 170.1W 967 64
0000UTC 02.10.2018 84 13.7N 171.8W 957 75
1200UTC 02.10.2018 96 15.0N 173.2W 956 71
0000UTC 03.10.2018 108 16.4N 173.9W 952 70
1200UTC 03.10.2018 120 17.8N 174.2W 948 74
0000UTC 04.10.2018 132 19.2N 174.2W 937 80
1200UTC 04.10.2018 144 20.0N 175.1W 931 84

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96E ANALYSED POSITION : 10.8N 98.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP962018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.09.2018 0 10.8N 98.0W 1007 29
0000UTC 29.09.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM KIRK ANALYSED POSITION : 13.8N 63.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.09.2018 0 13.8N 63.4W 1008 27
0000UTC 29.09.2018 12 15.0N 65.5W 1008 32
1200UTC 29.09.2018 24 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 36.3N 46.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.09.2018 0 36.3N 46.4W 987 43
0000UTC 29.09.2018 12 35.9N 49.0W 990 42
1200UTC 29.09.2018 24 34.5N 50.9W 989 37
0000UTC 30.09.2018 36 33.9N 52.0W 988 46
1200UTC 30.09.2018 48 33.3N 52.5W 988 45
0000UTC 01.10.2018 60 33.4N 53.7W 988 50
1200UTC 01.10.2018 72 34.2N 55.1W 981 54
0000UTC 02.10.2018 84 33.3N 56.0W 975 58
1200UTC 02.10.2018 96 31.9N 56.5W 967 65
0000UTC 03.10.2018 108 31.1N 56.7W 957 72
1200UTC 03.10.2018 120 31.4N 56.3W 947 75
0000UTC 04.10.2018 132 32.9N 56.0W 938 75
1200UTC 04.10.2018 144 34.4N 56.0W 937 76

HURRICANE ROSA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.9N 117.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.09.2018 0 16.9N 117.5W 976 56
0000UTC 29.09.2018 12 17.8N 118.1W 978 53
1200UTC 29.09.2018 24 19.6N 118.6W 975 53
0000UTC 30.09.2018 36 21.2N 119.0W 975 55
1200UTC 30.09.2018 48 23.0N 118.9W 977 55
0000UTC 01.10.2018 60 24.8N 118.3W 986 43
1200UTC 01.10.2018 72 26.5N 117.2W 995 35
0000UTC 02.10.2018 84 28.4N 116.5W 1000 27
1200UTC 02.10.2018 96 32.2N 114.3W 1006 26
0000UTC 03.10.2018 108 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 11.6N 103.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.09.2018 36 11.9N 104.2W 1003 29
1200UTC 30.09.2018 48 12.0N 106.4W 1001 33
0000UTC 01.10.2018 60 12.0N 108.8W 995 41
1200UTC 01.10.2018 72 12.0N 111.1W 979 67
0000UTC 02.10.2018 84 12.1N 113.5W 971 76
1200UTC 02.10.2018 96 12.5N 115.5W 966 70
0000UTC 03.10.2018 108 13.3N 117.4W 968 69
1200UTC 03.10.2018 120 14.2N 119.6W 964 68
0000UTC 04.10.2018 132 15.0N 120.9W 962 66
1200UTC 04.10.2018 144 16.1N 121.8W 959 72

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 14.1N 124.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.10.2018 60 14.5N 124.1W 1006 22
1200UTC 01.10.2018 72 14.9N 123.0W 1007 22
0000UTC 02.10.2018 84 14.7N 122.3W 1006 21
1200UTC 02.10.2018 96 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 35.5N 32.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.10.2018 84 35.5N 32.4W 1012 27
1200UTC 02.10.2018 96 34.4N 33.8W 1011 21
0000UTC 03.10.2018 108 33.8N 32.2W 1010 25
1200UTC 03.10.2018 120 34.2N 30.7W 1010 26
0000UTC 04.10.2018 132 34.3N 30.8W 1010 22
1200UTC 04.10.2018 144 33.1N 30.8W 1011 20


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 281557


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 281557

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 28.09.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97C ANALYSED POSITION : 12.0N 151.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP972018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 28.09.2018 12.0N 151.5W WEAK
00UTC 29.09.2018 12.7N 154.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.09.2018 12.8N 157.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2018 12.6N 161.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2018 12.0N 164.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.10.2018 11.9N 167.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 01.10.2018 12.4N 170.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 02.10.2018 13.7N 171.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.10.2018 15.0N 173.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.10.2018 16.4N 173.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.10.2018 17.8N 174.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.10.2018 19.2N 174.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.10.2018 20.0N 175.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96E ANALYSED POSITION : 10.8N 98.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP962018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 28.09.2018 10.8N 98.0W WEAK
00UTC 29.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM KIRK ANALYSED POSITION : 13.8N 63.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 28.09.2018 13.8N 63.4W WEAK
00UTC 29.09.2018 15.0N 65.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 36.3N 46.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 28.09.2018 36.3N 46.4W MODERATE
00UTC 29.09.2018 35.9N 49.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.09.2018 34.5N 50.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2018 33.9N 52.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2018 33.3N 52.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.10.2018 33.4N 53.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.10.2018 34.2N 55.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.10.2018 33.3N 56.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.10.2018 31.9N 56.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.10.2018 31.1N 56.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.10.2018 31.4N 56.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.10.2018 32.9N 56.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.10.2018 34.4N 56.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

HURRICANE ROSA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.9N 117.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 28.09.2018 16.9N 117.5W STRONG
00UTC 29.09.2018 17.8N 118.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.09.2018 19.6N 118.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2018 21.2N 119.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2018 23.0N 118.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.10.2018 24.8N 118.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.10.2018 26.5N 117.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.10.2018 28.4N 116.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.10.2018 32.2N 114.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 11.6N 103.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 30.09.2018 11.9N 104.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2018 12.0N 106.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.10.2018 12.0N 108.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.10.2018 12.0N 111.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 02.10.2018 12.1N 113.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.10.2018 12.5N 115.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.10.2018 13.3N 117.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.10.2018 14.2N 119.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.10.2018 15.0N 120.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.10.2018 16.1N 121.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 14.1N 124.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 01.10.2018 14.5N 124.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.10.2018 14.9N 123.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.10.2018 14.7N 122.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 35.5N 32.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 02.10.2018 35.5N 32.4W WEAK
12UTC 02.10.2018 34.4N 33.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.10.2018 33.8N 32.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.10.2018 34.2N 30.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.10.2018 34.3N 30.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.10.2018 33.1N 30.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 281557


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 281517 RRA
TCDEP5

HURRICANE ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
800 AM PDT FRI SEP 28 2018

CORRECTED TYPO IN SECOND PARAGRAPH.

CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE DISTINCT EYE OF ROSA HAVE WARMED
CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. A RECENT SSMI OVERPASS
SHOWED A DISTINCT DOUBLE EYEWALL STRUCTURE, AND THIS IS LIKELY THE
REASON FOR THE DEGRADATION OF ROSA'S APPEARANCE. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE DECREASED AS A RESULT, AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN THEREFORE DECREASED TO 120 KT. GIVEN
THE CONTINUED WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS SINCE 1200 UTC, IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT ROSA HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE MORE THAN THIS.

SINCE AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS ONGOING, ROSA IS NO LONGER
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY. IN THE SHORT TERM, SOME ADDITIONAL
WEAKENING IS LIKELY, TYPICAL OF MAJOR HURRICANES UNDERGOING EYEWALL
REPLACEMENTS. IF THIS PROCESS COMPLETES WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR THE HURRICANE TO RE-INTENSIFY
WHILE THE SHEAR IS LOW AND THE HURRICANE REMAINS OVER WARM SSTS.
HOWEVER, STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT
SINCE THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CROSS OVER MUCH COOLER SSTS. BY 96
H, A WEAKER ROSA WILL LIKELY APPROACH THE NORTHERN WEST COAST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE RESULTING INTERACTION WITH
LAND WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO DISSIPATE. IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT A FARTHER NORTHWEST TRACK WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN ROSA
WEAKENING FASTER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED, WHILE A FARTHER
SOUTHEAST TRACK COULD ALLOW ROSA TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
CIRCULATION AS IT CROSSES THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA.


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 281517 CCA
TCDEP5

Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 14...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
800 AM PDT Fri Sep 28 2018

Corrected typo in second paragraph.

Cloud tops surrounding the distinct eye of Rosa have warmed
considerably over the past few hours. A recent SSMI overpass
showed a distinct double eyewall structure, and this is likely the
reason for the degradation of Rosa's appearance. Dvorak intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB have decreased as a result, and the
initial intensity has been therefore decreased to 120 kt. Given
the continued warming of cloud tops since 1200 UTC, it is possible
that Rosa has weakened a little more than this.

Since an eyewall replacement cycle is ongoing, Rosa is no longer
expected to intensify. In the short term, some additional
weakening is likely, typical of major hurricanes undergoing eyewall
replacements. If this process completes within the next 24 hours,
there will be some opportunity for the hurricane to re-intensify
while the shear is low and the hurricane remains over warm SSTs.
However, steady weakening is anticipated beginning Saturday night
since the cyclone is forecast to cross over much cooler SSTs. By 96
h, a weaker Rosa will likely approach the northern west coast of
the Baja California peninsula and the resulting interaction with
land will likely cause the cyclone to dissipate. It is worth
noting that a farther northwest track would likely result in Rosa
weakening faster than currently indicated, while a farther
southeast track could allow Rosa to maintain a slightly stronger
circulation as it crosses the northern Gulf of California.

Rosa has begun its long-anticipated turn toward the northwest, and
the initial motion estimate is 315/6 kt. The track models remain
in good agreement that Rosa will gradually turn toward the north,
and then north-northeast over the next few days ahead of an
approaching mid- to upper-level trough to the northwest. No
significant changes were made to the official track forecast, but
it has been adjusted slightly to the left (or northwest) at most
times, in line with the latest consensus guidance.

Even though the NHC forecast calls for the surface circulation of
Rosa to dissipate after making landfall along the northern Baja
California coast, its associated moisture is expected to spread
northeastward through parts of the southwest United States. For
more information about potential rainfall in that area, please see
products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS
forecast office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 17.2N 117.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 17.8N 118.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 19.2N 118.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 21.0N 118.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 23.0N 118.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 26.7N 117.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 31.6N 115.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 281450 RRA
TCDEP5

HURRICANE ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
800 AM PDT FRI SEP 28 2018

CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE DISTINCT EYE OF ROSA HAVE WARMED
CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. A RECENT SSMI OVERPASS
SHOWED A DISTINCT DOUBLE EYEWALL STRUCTURE, AND THIS IS LIKELY THE
REASON FOR THE DEGRADATION OF ROSA'S APPEARANCE. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE DECREASED AS A RESULT, AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN THEREFORE DECREASED TO 120 KT. GIVEN
THE CONTINUED WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS SINCE 1200 UTC, IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT ROSA HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE MORE THAN THIS.

SINCE AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS ONGOING, ROSA IS NO LONGER
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY. IN THE SHORT TERM, SOME ADDITIONAL
WEAKENING IS LIKELY, TYPICAL OF MAJOR HURRICANES UNDERGOING EYEWALL
REPLACEMENTS. IF THIS PROCESS COMPLETES WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR THE HURRICANE TO RE-INTENSIFY
WHILE THE SHEAR IS LOW AND THE HURRICANE REMAINS OVER WARM SSTS.
HOWEVER, STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT
SINCE THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CROSS OVER MUCH COOLER SSTS. BY 96
H, A WEAKER ROSA WILL LIKELY APPROACH THE NORTHERN WEST COAST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE RESULTING INTERACTION WITH
LAND WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO DISSIPATE. IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT A FARTHER NORTHWEST TRACK WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN ROSA
WEAKENING FASTER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED, WHILE A FARTHER
SOUTHWEST TRACK COULD ALLOW ROSA TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
CIRCULATION AS IT CROSSES THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

ROSA HAS BEGUN ITS LONG-ANTICIPATED TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST, AND


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 281450
TCDEP5

Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
800 AM PDT Fri Sep 28 2018

Cloud tops surrounding the distinct eye of Rosa have warmed
considerably over the past few hours. A recent SSMI overpass
showed a distinct double eyewall structure, and this is likely the
reason for the degradation of Rosa's appearance. Dvorak intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB have decreased as a result, and the
initial intensity has been therefore decreased to 120 kt. Given
the continued warming of cloud tops since 1200 UTC, it is possible
that Rosa has weakened a little more than this.

Since an eyewall replacement cycle is ongoing, Rosa is no longer
expected to intensify. In the short term, some additional
weakening is likely, typical of major hurricanes undergoing eyewall
replacements. If this process completes within the next 24 hours,
there will be some opportunity for the hurricane to re-intensify
while the shear is low and the hurricane remains over warm SSTs.
However, steady weakening is anticipated beginning Saturday night
since the cyclone is forecast to cross over much cooler SSTs. By 96
h, a weaker Rosa will likely approach the northern west coast of
the Baja California peninsula and the resulting interaction with
land will likely cause the cyclone to dissipate. It is worth
noting that a farther northwest track would likely result in Rosa
weakening faster than currently indicated, while a farther
southwest track could allow Rosa to maintain a slightly stronger
circulation as it crosses the northern Gulf of California.

Rosa has begun its long-anticipated turn toward the northwest, and
the initial motion estimate is 315/6 kt. The track models remain
in good agreement that Rosa will gradually turn toward the north,
and then north-northeast over the next few days ahead of an
approaching mid- to upper-level trough to the northwest. No
significant changes were made to the official track forecast, but
it has been adjusted slightly to the left (or northwest) at most
times, in line with the latest consensus guidance.

Even though the NHC forecast calls for the surface circulation of
Rosa to dissipate after making landfall along the northern Baja
California coast, its associated moisture is expected to spread
northeastward through parts of the southwest United States. For
more information about potential rainfall in that area, please see
products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS
forecast office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 17.2N 117.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 17.8N 118.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 19.2N 118.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 21.0N 118.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 23.0N 118.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 26.7N 117.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 31.6N 115.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 281449 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ROSA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
800 AM PDT FRI SEP 28 2018

...MAJOR HURRICANE ROSA NOW HEADING NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 117.5W
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ROSA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 117.5 WEST. ROSA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). A CONTINUED
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, ROSA IS FORECAST
TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 140 MPH (220 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ROSA IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED TODAY. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY, BUT A STEADY WEAKENING TREND IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN BY
SATURDAY NIGHT.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES (65 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
(185 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 942 MB (27.82 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 281449
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rosa Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
800 AM PDT Fri Sep 28 2018

...MAJOR HURRICANE ROSA NOW HEADING NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 117.5W
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rosa was located
near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 117.5 West. Rosa is moving
toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A continued
northwestward motion is expected today, followed by a turn toward
the north by Saturday night. By early next week, Rosa is forecast
to turn toward the north-northeast and increase its forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 140 mph (220 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rosa is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional weakening is
anticipated today. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible on
Saturday, but a steady weakening trend is anticipated to begin by
Saturday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb (27.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, the southern Baja California Peninsula, and
southern California late this week and over the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 281448 RRA
TCMEP5

HURRICANE ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
1500 UTC FRI SEP 28 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 117.5W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 942 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 90SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 117.5W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 117.4W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.8N 118.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 19.2N 118.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.0N 118.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.0N 118.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.7N 117.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 281448
TCMEP5

HURRICANE ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
1500 UTC FRI SEP 28 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 117.5W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 942 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 90SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 117.5W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 117.4W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.8N 118.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 19.2N 118.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.0N 118.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.0N 118.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.7N 117.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 31.6N 115.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 117.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 280837 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ROSA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
200 AM PDT FRI SEP 28 2018

...LARGE AND POWERFUL ROSA EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 117.3W
ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE ROSA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 117.3 WEST. ROSA IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ON
SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH (230 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ROSA IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST TODAY, WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING ANTICIPATED BY SATURDAY, AND
FURTHER WEAKENING AT A FASTER RATE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES (65 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
(185 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB (27.76 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 280837
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rosa Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
200 AM PDT Fri Sep 28 2018

...LARGE AND POWERFUL ROSA EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 117.3W
ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Rosa was located near
latitude 16.9 North, longitude 117.3 West. Rosa is moving toward the
west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A gradual turn toward the west-northwest
and northwest is expected on Friday, followed by a turn toward the
north Saturday night and a turn toward the north-northeast on
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rosa is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little significant change in strength is
forecast today, with gradual weakening anticipated by Saturday, and
further weakening at a faster rate expected early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, the southern Baja California Peninsula, and
southern California late this week and over the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 280416

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 28.09.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97C ANALYSED POSITION : 13.2N 148.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP972018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.09.2018 0 13.2N 148.8W 1006 24
1200UTC 28.09.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96E ANALYSED POSITION : 10.8N 96.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP962018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.09.2018 0 10.8N 96.8W 1006 23
1200UTC 28.09.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM KIRK ANALYSED POSITION : 14.3N 61.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.09.2018 0 14.3N 61.5W 1008 31
1200UTC 28.09.2018 12 13.6N 63.5W 1009 27
0000UTC 29.09.2018 24 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 37.1N 44.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.09.2018 0 37.1N 44.6W 983 46
1200UTC 28.09.2018 12 36.4N 46.6W 987 44
0000UTC 29.09.2018 24 35.7N 48.8W 989 40
1200UTC 29.09.2018 36 34.8N 50.4W 989 39
0000UTC 30.09.2018 48 34.6N 52.3W 988 43
1200UTC 30.09.2018 60 33.2N 52.8W 988 43
0000UTC 01.10.2018 72 33.6N 53.6W 983 53
1200UTC 01.10.2018 84 33.9N 53.9W 976 53
0000UTC 02.10.2018 96 33.4N 55.7W 969 57
1200UTC 02.10.2018 108 32.1N 56.3W 962 66
0000UTC 03.10.2018 120 31.4N 56.5W 951 73
1200UTC 03.10.2018 132 31.5N 56.3W 938 78
0000UTC 04.10.2018 144 32.2N 55.8W 935 78

HURRICANE ROSA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.7N 117.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.09.2018 0 16.7N 117.0W 964 64
1200UTC 28.09.2018 12 16.6N 117.8W 971 59
0000UTC 29.09.2018 24 17.7N 118.4W 973 56
1200UTC 29.09.2018 36 19.4N 119.3W 971 54
0000UTC 30.09.2018 48 21.3N 119.8W 970 58
1200UTC 30.09.2018 60 23.2N 119.8W 971 61
0000UTC 01.10.2018 72 25.0N 119.1W 983 46
1200UTC 01.10.2018 84 27.0N 117.9W 993 37
0000UTC 02.10.2018 96 29.7N 116.7W 997 33
1200UTC 02.10.2018 108 32.5N 114.1W 1004 28
0000UTC 03.10.2018 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 11.2N 100.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.09.2018 24 11.2N 100.5W 1004 28
1200UTC 29.09.2018 36 11.9N 101.8W 1002 31
0000UTC 30.09.2018 48 12.0N 104.1W 999 38
1200UTC 30.09.2018 60 12.3N 106.6W 994 43
0000UTC 01.10.2018 72 11.9N 108.5W 985 58
1200UTC 01.10.2018 84 12.0N 110.9W 970 74
0000UTC 02.10.2018 96 12.0N 113.2W 957 80
1200UTC 02.10.2018 108 12.5N 115.4W 952 81
0000UTC 03.10.2018 120 13.3N 117.9W 956 66
1200UTC 03.10.2018 132 14.2N 120.1W 959 68
0000UTC 04.10.2018 144 15.5N 121.6W 952 72

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 12.7N 154.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.09.2018 24 12.7N 154.7W 1005 28
1200UTC 29.09.2018 36 12.5N 157.5W 1003 32
0000UTC 30.09.2018 48 12.4N 161.2W 1000 36
1200UTC 30.09.2018 60 11.7N 164.6W 994 43
0000UTC 01.10.2018 72 11.7N 167.8W 981 56
1200UTC 01.10.2018 84 12.5N 170.6W 972 60
0000UTC 02.10.2018 96 13.6N 172.8W 963 64
1200UTC 02.10.2018 108 15.1N 174.6W 957 71
0000UTC 03.10.2018 120 16.6N 176.3W 947 75
1200UTC 03.10.2018 132 17.8N 178.1W 947 74
0000UTC 04.10.2018 144 18.8N 180.0E 940 78


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 280416


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 280416

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 28.09.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97C ANALYSED POSITION : 13.2N 148.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP972018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 28.09.2018 13.2N 148.8W WEAK
12UTC 28.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96E ANALYSED POSITION : 10.8N 96.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP962018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 28.09.2018 10.8N 96.8W WEAK
12UTC 28.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM KIRK ANALYSED POSITION : 14.3N 61.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 28.09.2018 14.3N 61.5W WEAK
12UTC 28.09.2018 13.6N 63.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 37.1N 44.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 28.09.2018 37.1N 44.6W MODERATE
12UTC 28.09.2018 36.4N 46.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.09.2018 35.7N 48.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.09.2018 34.8N 50.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2018 34.6N 52.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2018 33.2N 52.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.10.2018 33.6N 53.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.10.2018 33.9N 53.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.10.2018 33.4N 55.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.10.2018 32.1N 56.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.10.2018 31.4N 56.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.10.2018 31.5N 56.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 04.10.2018 32.2N 55.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

HURRICANE ROSA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.7N 117.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 28.09.2018 16.7N 117.0W STRONG
12UTC 28.09.2018 16.6N 117.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 29.09.2018 17.7N 118.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.09.2018 19.4N 119.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2018 21.3N 119.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2018 23.2N 119.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.10.2018 25.0N 119.1W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 01.10.2018 27.0N 117.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.10.2018 29.7N 116.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.10.2018 32.5N 114.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 11.2N 100.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.09.2018 11.2N 100.5W WEAK
12UTC 29.09.2018 11.9N 101.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2018 12.0N 104.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2018 12.3N 106.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.10.2018 11.9N 108.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.10.2018 12.0N 110.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 02.10.2018 12.0N 113.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 02.10.2018 12.5N 115.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.10.2018 13.3N 117.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.10.2018 14.2N 120.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.10.2018 15.5N 121.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 12.7N 154.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.09.2018 12.7N 154.7W WEAK
12UTC 29.09.2018 12.5N 157.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2018 12.4N 161.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2018 11.7N 164.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.10.2018 11.7N 167.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 01.10.2018 12.5N 170.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.10.2018 13.6N 172.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.10.2018 15.1N 174.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.10.2018 16.6N 176.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.10.2018 17.8N 178.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.10.2018 18.8N 180.0E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 280416


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 280258 RRA
TCDEP5

HURRICANE ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
800 PM PDT THU SEP 27 2018

ROSA HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS, WITH A DISTINCT AND WARM EYE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGES ALONG
WITH DEEP EYEWALL CONVECTION. A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK
ESTIMATES GIVES AN INITIAL WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF 125 KT, MAKING
ROSA THE SEVENTH CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE OF THE VERY BUSY 2018 EASTERN
PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THIS VALUE TIES
2015 FOR THE HIGHEST OBSERVED SEASONAL TOTAL IN THE BASIN DURING
THE SATELLITE ERA.

THE HURRICANE STILL HAS A CHANCE TO INTENSIFY FURTHER GIVEN THAT IT
IS STILL OVER WARM WATERS WITHIN LIGHT SHEAR. BY THE WEEKEND,
HOWEVER, ROSA WILL ENCOUNTER MORE MARGINAL SSTS, AND THE SHEAR
WILL LIKELY INCREASE. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT
WEAKENING OF THE HURRICANE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND FOR ROSA TO FALL
BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM BY TUESDAY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST ISN'T
PARTICULARLY CONFIDENT AT LONG RANGE BECAUSE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF A
TROUGH INTERACTION SOMEWHAT OFFSETTING THE EFFECTS OF COOL EASTERN
PACIFIC WATERS AND DRY STABLE AIR. SO FAR THE GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY
CONSISTENT, AND THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW STEADY WEAKENING AS
ROSA APPROACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA.

ROSA CONTINUES MOVING AT 265 DEG, NOW AT 8 KT. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND MOVE
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A MEAN MID-TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH FORMS NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE US. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN
SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD OVER


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 280258
TCDEP5

Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
800 PM PDT Thu Sep 27 2018

Rosa has continued to rapidly intensify during the past several
hours, with a distinct and warm eye noted on satellite images along
with deep eyewall convection. A blend of the latest Dvorak
estimates gives an initial wind speed estimate of 125 kt, making
Rosa the seventh category 4 hurricane of the very busy 2018 eastern
Pacific hurricane season. It is worth noting that this value ties
2015 for the highest observed seasonal total in the basin during
the satellite era.

The hurricane still has a chance to intensify further given that it
is still over warm waters within light shear. By the weekend,
however, Rosa will encounter more marginal SSTs, and the shear
will likely increase. These conditions should cause a significant
weakening of the hurricane by early next week, and for Rosa to fall
back to a tropical storm by Tuesday. The intensity forecast isn't
particularly confident at long range because of the possibility of a
trough interaction somewhat offsetting the effects of cool eastern
Pacific waters and dry stable air. So far the guidance is fairly
consistent, and the forecast continues to show steady weakening as
Rosa approaches Baja California.

Rosa continues moving at 265 deg, now at 8 kt. A mid-level ridge
over the southwestern United States is forecast to weaken and move
eastward over the next couple of days as a mean mid-tropospheric
trough forms near the west coast of the US. This synoptic pattern
should cause the tropical cyclone to gradually turn northward over
that time, and eventually move to the northeast due to Rosa getting
caught up into southwestern flow ahead of the trough. While there
are still some notable speed differences in the model guidance, the
overall trend is for a faster solution, which is consistent with a
more vertically deep system feeling the stronger mid-level flow.
The model consensus continues the faster trend, and the new
forecast follows suit.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 16.9N 116.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 17.1N 117.7W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 17.8N 118.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 19.0N 118.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 20.9N 118.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 25.0N 118.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 29.0N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 03/0000Z 36.0N 110.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 280258 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ROSA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
800 PM PDT THU SEP 27 2018

...ROSA BECOMES THE SEVENTH CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 116.7W
ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ROSA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 116.7 WEST. ROSA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON SATURDAY AND A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 145 MPH (230 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ROSA IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME SLOW WEAKENING ANTICIPATED
BY SATURDAY, AND A LARGER DECREASE IN WIND SPEED EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES (65 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES
(205 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB (27.76 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 280258
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rosa Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
800 PM PDT Thu Sep 27 2018

...ROSA BECOMES THE SEVENTH CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 116.7W
ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rosa was located
near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 116.7 West. Rosa is moving
toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A gradual turn toward the
west-northwest and northwest is expected on Friday, followed by a
turn toward the north on Saturday and a turn toward the
north-northeast on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (230 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rosa is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little significant change in
strength is forecast overnight, with some slow weakening anticipated
by Saturday, and a larger decrease in wind speed expected early next
week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, the southern Baja California Peninsula, and
southern California late this week and over the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 280258 RRA
TCMEP5

HURRICANE ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
0300 UTC FRI SEP 28 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 116.7W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 116.7W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 116.4W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.1N 117.7W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.8N 118.4W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 19.0N 118.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 20.9N 118.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 25.0N 118.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 280258
TCMEP5

HURRICANE ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
0300 UTC FRI SEP 28 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 116.7W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 116.7W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 116.4W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.1N 117.7W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.8N 118.4W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 19.0N 118.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 20.9N 118.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 25.0N 118.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 29.0N 115.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 36.0N 110.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 116.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 272049 RRA
TCDEP5

HURRICANE ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
200 PM PDT THU SEP 27 2018

ROSA IS UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION, ACCOMPANIED BY THE
FORMATION OF A WELL-DEFINED 15 N MI WIDE EYE INSIDE THE CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST. RECENT SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 100-115 KT RANGE, AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 110 KT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE CIMSS
ADT AND THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. ROSA CONTINUES TO
HAVE GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS SOME COMPLEXITIES. THE FIRST IS HOW MUCH
MORE ROSA WILL STRENGTHEN BEFORE THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION STOPS.
THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE UPPER EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE IN
SHOWING ABOUT 12 H MORE STRENGTHENING WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF
120 KT. THAT BEING SAID, IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF ROSA GOT
STRONGER THAN THAT. THE SIMPLEST PART OF THE FORECAST IS FROM 24-72
H, WHEN THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK
WITH ROSA GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS A RESULT. AFTER 72 H, THE CYCLONE
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE QUITE COLD WATERS OF THE NORTHEASTERN
PACIFIC, AND THEN MOVE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE WARM WATER OF
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WHILE THAT IS HAPPENING, A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE BOTH STRONG SHEAR AND
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER ROSA. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
RESPONDS TO THIS COMBINATION OF INGREDIENTS WITH INTENSITY FORECASTS
OF ANYWHERE BETWEEN 30-65 KT AS ROSA MAKES LANDFALL ON THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 272049
TCDEP5

Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
200 PM PDT Thu Sep 27 2018

Rosa is undergoing rapid intensification, accompanied by the
formation of a well-defined 15 n mi wide eye inside the central
dense overcast. Recent subjective and objective satellite intensity
estimates are generally in the 100-115 kt range, and the initial
intensity is increased to 110 kt in best agreement with the CIMSS
ADT and the subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB. Rosa continues to
have good cirrus outflow in all directions.

The intensity forecast has some complexities. The first is how much
more Rosa will strengthen before the rapid intensification stops.
The new intensity forecast follows the upper edge of the guidance in
showing about 12 h more strengthening with a peak intensity of
120 kt. That being said, it would not be surprising if Rosa got
stronger than that. The simplest part of the forecast is from 24-72
h, when the sea surface temperatures cool along the forecast track
with Rosa gradually weakening as a result. After 72 h, the cyclone
should move across the quite cold waters of the northeastern
Pacific, and then move across Baja California over the warm water of
the Gulf of California. While that is happening, a mid-latitude
trough to the northwest is expected to cause both strong shear and
strong upper-level divergence over Rosa. The intensity guidance
responds to this combination of ingredients with intensity forecasts
of anywhere between 30-65 kt as Rosa makes landfall on the Baja
California peninsula. The new intensity forecast continues to call
for Rosa to weaken to a tropical storm before reaching Baja
California. However, this should be considered to be a low
confidence forecast at this time.

Rosa is farther south than estimated in the previous advisory, and
the new initial motion is now 265/9. Other than that, there is no
change in the forecast philosophy from the previous forecast. For
the next 12 h or so, the hurricane should move generally westward on
the south side of the subtropical ridge over the Pacific west of
northern Mexico and a mid-latitude ridge over California.
Subsequently, Rosa should turn northwestward and northward through a
break in the ridge caused by the aforementioned large mid-latitude
trough moving eastward through the northeastern Pacific. By 96-120
h, Rosa should recurve northeastward into the westerlies on the
eastern side of the trough and move in the general direction of the
northern Baja California peninsula and northwestern Mexico. The
dynamical models show spread in both direction and speed as Rosa
approaches Baja. The ECMWF and the Canadian models are on the left
side of the envelope in forecasting landfall on the northern part of
the peninsula, while the GFS and the HWRF are on the right side with
a landfall closer to the central part of the peninsula. The new
forecast track lies between those extremes near the center of the
guidance envelope and the consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 16.9N 115.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 17.0N 117.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 17.5N 118.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 18.4N 118.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 19.8N 119.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 23.5N 119.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 26.5N 117.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 02/1800Z 31.0N 114.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 272048 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ROSA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
200 PM PDT THU SEP 27 2018

...ROSA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 115.9W
ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ROSA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 115.9 WEST. ROSA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH (205 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ROSA IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
(185 KM). THE MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATED STATION ON CLARION ISLAND
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 38 MPH (61 KM/H) AND A WIND


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 272048
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rosa Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
200 PM PDT Thu Sep 27 2018

...ROSA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 115.9W
ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rosa was located
near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 115.9 West. Rosa is moving
toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected
to continue tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected
on Friday, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Saturday and
a turn toward the north on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rosa is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is
expected tonight. Fluctuations in strength are possible Friday and
Friday night, with weakening expected on Saturday and Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km). The Mexican Navy automated station on Clarion Island
recently reported sustained winds of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a wind
gust of 53 mph (85 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, the southern Baja California Peninsula, and
southern California late this week and over the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 272048 RRA
TCMEP5

HURRICANE ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
2100 UTC THU SEP 27 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 115.9W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 115.9W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 115.5W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.0N 117.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.5N 118.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.4N 118.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 19.8N 119.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.5N 119.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 272048
TCMEP5

HURRICANE ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
2100 UTC THU SEP 27 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 115.9W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 115.9W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 115.5W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.0N 117.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.5N 118.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.4N 118.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 19.8N 119.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.5N 119.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 26.5N 117.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 31.0N 114.0W...OVER GULF OF CALIFORNIA
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 115.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 271559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 27.09.2018

TROPICAL STORM KIRK ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 58.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.09.2018 0 13.9N 58.6W 1003 46
0000UTC 28.09.2018 12 14.7N 61.7W 1006 37
1200UTC 28.09.2018 24 15.3N 64.2W 1008 31
0000UTC 29.09.2018 36 16.1N 66.5W 1008 28
1200UTC 29.09.2018 48 16.5N 69.2W 1009 25
0000UTC 30.09.2018 60 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 36.9N 42.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.09.2018 0 36.9N 42.4W 974 53
0000UTC 28.09.2018 12 36.9N 44.8W 981 48
1200UTC 28.09.2018 24 36.2N 46.4W 985 45
0000UTC 29.09.2018 36 35.4N 49.2W 986 45
1200UTC 29.09.2018 48 35.0N 50.6W 984 45
0000UTC 30.09.2018 60 35.2N 51.8W 983 48
1200UTC 30.09.2018 72 35.6N 52.5W 982 53
0000UTC 01.10.2018 84 35.8N 53.7W 979 51
1200UTC 01.10.2018 96 35.8N 54.4W 972 56
0000UTC 02.10.2018 108 35.7N 55.2W 968 53
1200UTC 02.10.2018 120 34.5N 55.8W 964 58
0000UTC 03.10.2018 132 34.1N 56.3W 958 68
1200UTC 03.10.2018 144 33.6N 57.2W 948 73

HURRICANE ROSA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N 115.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.09.2018 0 17.0N 115.1W 965 68
0000UTC 28.09.2018 12 16.9N 117.2W 970 61
1200UTC 28.09.2018 24 17.1N 118.4W 975 53
0000UTC 29.09.2018 36 17.9N 119.3W 975 51
1200UTC 29.09.2018 48 19.5N 119.8W 973 58
0000UTC 30.09.2018 60 21.4N 120.6W 973 56
1200UTC 30.09.2018 72 23.3N 120.5W 976 62
0000UTC 01.10.2018 84 25.2N 119.6W 987 49
1200UTC 01.10.2018 96 26.9N 118.1W 997 33
0000UTC 02.10.2018 108 28.6N 116.4W 1003 24
1200UTC 02.10.2018 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 13.1N 153.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.09.2018 36 13.1N 154.7W 1004 32
1200UTC 29.09.2018 48 13.4N 157.7W 1002 34
0000UTC 30.09.2018 60 13.4N 161.4W 999 37
1200UTC 30.09.2018 72 12.9N 164.8W 994 43
0000UTC 01.10.2018 84 12.8N 167.9W 985 49
1200UTC 01.10.2018 96 13.4N 170.6W 975 61
0000UTC 02.10.2018 108 14.3N 172.6W 963 68
1200UTC 02.10.2018 120 15.5N 173.9W 954 74
0000UTC 03.10.2018 132 16.7N 175.0W 952 75
1200UTC 03.10.2018 144 18.2N 175.5W 950 73

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 11.2N 100.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.09.2018 48 11.4N 101.6W 1002 37
0000UTC 30.09.2018 60 11.5N 104.3W 998 40
1200UTC 30.09.2018 72 11.3N 107.1W 992 48
0000UTC 01.10.2018 84 10.8N 109.0W 982 61
1200UTC 01.10.2018 96 10.8N 111.3W 968 69
0000UTC 02.10.2018 108 11.0N 113.7W 954 75
1200UTC 02.10.2018 120 11.3N 116.2W 953 76
0000UTC 03.10.2018 132 11.7N 118.3W 953 69
1200UTC 03.10.2018 144 12.5N 120.0W 952 74


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 271559


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 271559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 27.09.2018

TROPICAL STORM KIRK ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 58.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 27.09.2018 13.9N 58.6W WEAK
00UTC 28.09.2018 14.7N 61.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.09.2018 15.3N 64.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.09.2018 16.1N 66.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.09.2018 16.5N 69.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 36.9N 42.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 27.09.2018 36.9N 42.4W STRONG
00UTC 28.09.2018 36.9N 44.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.09.2018 36.2N 46.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.09.2018 35.4N 49.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.09.2018 35.0N 50.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2018 35.2N 51.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2018 35.6N 52.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.10.2018 35.8N 53.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.10.2018 35.8N 54.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.10.2018 35.7N 55.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.10.2018 34.5N 55.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.10.2018 34.1N 56.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.10.2018 33.6N 57.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

HURRICANE ROSA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N 115.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 27.09.2018 17.0N 115.1W STRONG
00UTC 28.09.2018 16.9N 117.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.09.2018 17.1N 118.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 29.09.2018 17.9N 119.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.09.2018 19.5N 119.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2018 21.4N 120.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2018 23.3N 120.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.10.2018 25.2N 119.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.10.2018 26.9N 118.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.10.2018 28.6N 116.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 13.1N 153.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.09.2018 13.1N 154.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.09.2018 13.4N 157.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2018 13.4N 161.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2018 12.9N 164.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.10.2018 12.8N 167.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.10.2018 13.4N 170.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.10.2018 14.3N 172.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.10.2018 15.5N 173.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.10.2018 16.7N 175.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.10.2018 18.2N 175.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 11.2N 100.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.09.2018 11.4N 101.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2018 11.5N 104.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2018 11.3N 107.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.10.2018 10.8N 109.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.10.2018 10.8N 111.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 02.10.2018 11.0N 113.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 02.10.2018 11.3N 116.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.10.2018 11.7N 118.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.10.2018 12.5N 120.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 271559


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 271454 RRA
TCDEP5

HURRICANE ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
800 AM PDT THU SEP 27 2018

ROSA IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOW A LARGE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER, AND THERE IS
A HINT OF AN EYE IN THE FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES. MICROWAVE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE EYE STRUCTURE UNDERNEATH THE OVERCAST
HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED, WITH LESS EVIDENCE OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
THAN SEEN YESTERDAY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO
90 KT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM
TAFB AND THE CIMSS ADT TECHNIQUE. THE HURRICANE CURRENTLY HAS GOOD
OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS.

CONDITIONS APPEAR GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING
FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR, AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST NOW MAKES ROSA
A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 12 H. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF THE CURRENT
STRENGTHENING IS THE START OF THE PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED RAPID
INTENSIFICATION ROSA COULD GET STRONGER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST,
WHICH SHOWS A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KT NEAR THE UPPER EDGE OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE. AFTER 36 H, THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE
CYCLONE OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD IT IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
WEAKENING, AND ROSA IS EXPECTED TO BE A TROPICAL STORM AS IT
APPROACHES THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 270/10. FOR THE NEXT
12-24 H, THE HURRICANE SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD ON THE SOUTH


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 271454
TCDEP5

Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
800 AM PDT Thu Sep 27 2018

Rosa is becoming better organized. Conventional satellite imagery
show a large area of cold cloud tops near the center, and there is
a hint of an eye in the first-light visible images. Microwave
imagery indicates that the eye structure underneath the overcast
has become better defined, with less evidence of dry air entrainment
than seen yesterday. The initial intensity has been increased to
90 kt in best agreement with the subjective Dvorak estimate from
TAFB and the CIMSS ADT technique. The hurricane currently has good
outflow in all directions.

Conditions appear generally favorable for continued strengthening
for the next 24-36 hr, and the new intensity forecast now makes Rosa
a major hurricane in 12 h. It should be noted that if the current
strengthening is the start of the previously anticipated rapid
intensification Rosa could get stronger than the current forecast,
which shows a peak intensity of 105 kt near the upper edge of the
intensity guidance. After 36 h, the forecast track takes the
cyclone over decreasing sea surface temperatures, and by the end of
the forecast period it is expected to encounter strong southwesterly
vertical shear. This combination should cause significant
weakening, and Rosa is expected to be a tropical storm as it
approaches the Baja California peninsula near the end of the
forecast period.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 270/10. For the next
12-24 h, the hurricane should move generally westward on the south
side of the subtropical ridge over the Pacific west of northern
Mexico and a mid-latitude ridge over California. Subsequently, Rosa
should turn northwestward and northward through a break in the ridge
caused by a large mid-latitude trough moving eastward through the
northeastern Pacific. By 96-120 h, Rosa should recurve
northeastward into the westerlies on the eastern side of the trough
and move in the general direction of northwestern Mexico and the
northern Baja California peninsula. There remains some spread in
the guidance forward speed after recurvature, with the GFS being
faster than the ECMWF. The new intensity forecast is a blend of
these extremes in forward speed at the 96 and 120 h points.
Overall, the guidance envelope has shifted a little west since the
previous advisory, and the new track is also shifted a little
westward.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 17.2N 115.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 17.3N 116.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 17.5N 118.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 18.3N 119.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 19.5N 119.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 22.5N 119.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 26.0N 118.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 29.5N 115.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 271453 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ROSA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
800 AM PDT THU SEP 27 2018

...ROSA STRENGTHENING AND FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 115.4W
ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ROSA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 115.4 WEST. ROSA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH A SLOWER MOTION TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH (165 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY, AND ROSA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING ON
SATURDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
(165 KM). THE MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATED STATION ON CLARION ISLAND
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 44 MPH (71 KM/H) AND A WIND
GUST OF 57 MPH (91 KM/H).


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 271453
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rosa Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
800 AM PDT Thu Sep 27 2018

...ROSA STRENGTHENING AND FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 115.4W
ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rosa was located
near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 115.4 West. Rosa is moving
toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is
expected to continue through tonight, with a slower motion toward
the west-northwest on Friday and toward the northwest Friday night
and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast through
Friday, and Rosa is expected to become a major hurricane later
today or tonight. The hurricane is expected to begin weakening on
Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km). The Mexican Navy automated station on Clarion Island
recently reported sustained winds of 44 mph (71 km/h) and a wind
gust of 57 mph (91 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts
of southwestern Mexico, the southern Baja California Peninsula, and
southern California late this week and over the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 271453 RRA
TCMEP5

HURRICANE ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
1500 UTC THU SEP 27 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 115.4W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 115.4W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 115.0W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.3N 116.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.5N 118.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.3N 119.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 19.5N 119.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.5N 119.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 271453
TCMEP5

HURRICANE ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
1500 UTC THU SEP 27 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 115.4W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 115.4W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 115.0W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.3N 116.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.5N 118.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.3N 119.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 19.5N 119.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.5N 119.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 26.0N 118.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 29.5N 115.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 115.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 270839 RRA
TCDEP5

HURRICANE ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
300 AM MDT THU SEP 27 2018

THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH PLENTY OF DEEP
CONVECTION AND A WELL-DEFINED CYCLONICALLY-CURVED BAND SOUTH OF THE
CENTER. THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF AN EYE YET IN CONVENTIONAL
IR IMAGERY. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES,
HOWEVER, ARE UNANIMOUSLY 4.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE, SO THE INTENSITY
IS KEPT AT 75 KT. BOTH ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID
STRENGTHENING WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, ALTHOUGH INTENSITY
GUIDANCE IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS IN EARLIER RUNS. THE NHC FORECAST
FOLLOWS CLOSELY THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE. BEYOND 3 DAYS, ROSA SHOULD BE OVER COOLER WATERS, AND
BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, THE
CYCLONE SHOULD HAVE WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM.

ROSA IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT STEERED BY THE DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ROSA WILL SOON REACH
THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH AND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD AS AN EASTWARD MOVING MID-LEVEL TROUGH
ERODES THE HIGH TO THE NORTH. ROSA SHOULD THEN TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS WHICH ALL
TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD. THE NHC FORECAST
IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS IN BETWEEN
THE CORRECTED CONSENSUS HCCA AND THE MULTI-MODEL AIDS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 270839
TCDEP5

Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
300 AM MDT Thu Sep 27 2018

The cloud pattern is a little more impressive with plenty of deep
convection and a well-defined cyclonically-curved band south of the
center. There is no evidence of an eye yet in conventional
IR imagery. Satellite intensity estimates from all agencies,
however, are unanimously 4.5 on the Dvorak scale, so the intensity
is kept at 75 kt. Both atmospheric and oceanic conditions are
favorable for intensification with the possibility of rapid
strengthening within the next 12 to 24 hours, although intensity
guidance is not as aggressive as in earlier runs. The NHC forecast
follows closely the intensity consensus and is very similar to the
previous one. Beyond 3 days, Rosa should be over cooler waters, and
by the time it reaches the northern Baja California peninsula, the
cyclone should have weakened to a tropical storm.

Rosa is moving westward or 270 degrees at 10 kt steered by the deep
easterly flow around a subtropical ridge. Rosa will soon reach
the southwestern edge of the high and will begin to move toward the
northwest and northward as an eastward moving mid-level trough
erodes the high to the north. Rosa should then turn toward the
northeast ahead of the trough by the end of the forecast period.
This is the solution provided by most of the track models which all
turn the cyclone northward and then northeastward. The NHC forecast
is in the middle of the guidance envelope and is in between
the corrected consensus HCCA and the multi-model aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 17.1N 114.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 17.2N 115.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 17.5N 117.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 17.8N 118.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 18.8N 118.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 22.0N 119.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 01/0600Z 25.5N 118.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 02/0600Z 29.0N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 270839 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ROSA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
300 AM MDT THU SEP 27 2018

...ROSA FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR
FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 114.1W
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM WSW OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ROSA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 114.1 WEST. ROSA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A SLOWER MOTION TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH (140 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ROSA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY
OR EARLY FRIDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
(165 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB (28.97 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY ROSA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 270839
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rosa Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
300 AM MDT Thu Sep 27 2018

...ROSA FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR
FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 114.1W
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM WSW OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rosa was located
near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 114.1 West. Rosa is moving
toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is
expected to continue today with a slower motion toward the
west-northwest on Friday and toward the northwest on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rosa is forecast to become a major hurricane later today
or early Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico and the southern Baja California Peninsula
late this week and over the weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 270838 RRA
TCMEP5

HURRICANE ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
0900 UTC THU SEP 27 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 114.1W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 114.1W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 113.6W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 17.2N 115.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.5N 117.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.8N 118.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.8N 118.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.0N 119.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 270838
TCMEP5

HURRICANE ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
0900 UTC THU SEP 27 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 114.1W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 114.1W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 113.6W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 17.2N 115.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.5N 117.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.8N 118.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.8N 118.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.0N 119.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 25.5N 118.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 29.0N 116.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 114.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 270419

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 27.09.2018

TROPICAL STORM KIRK ANALYSED POSITION : 13.0N 56.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.09.2018 0 13.0N 56.3W 1001 43
1200UTC 27.09.2018 12 14.2N 59.0W 1005 42
0000UTC 28.09.2018 24 14.5N 61.5W 1006 36
1200UTC 28.09.2018 36 15.3N 63.8W 1008 31
0000UTC 29.09.2018 48 16.1N 65.7W 1007 30
1200UTC 29.09.2018 60 16.7N 68.3W 1008 27
0000UTC 30.09.2018 72 16.9N 69.8W 1007 29
1200UTC 30.09.2018 84 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 37.5N 40.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.09.2018 0 37.5N 40.3W 974 55
1200UTC 27.09.2018 12 37.3N 42.4W 976 54
0000UTC 28.09.2018 24 36.4N 44.8W 980 49
1200UTC 28.09.2018 36 36.7N 46.6W 985 45
0000UTC 29.09.2018 48 35.8N 49.0W 987 41
1200UTC 29.09.2018 60 35.3N 50.9W 986 40
0000UTC 30.09.2018 72 35.2N 51.8W 985 43
1200UTC 30.09.2018 84 35.5N 53.3W 984 48
0000UTC 01.10.2018 96 35.5N 54.2W 981 53
1200UTC 01.10.2018 108 36.3N 54.6W 973 58
0000UTC 02.10.2018 120 35.8N 55.1W 964 63
1200UTC 02.10.2018 132 34.7N 54.7W 959 65
0000UTC 03.10.2018 144 33.9N 54.3W 952 70

HURRICANE ROSA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.7N 112.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.09.2018 0 16.7N 112.7W 975 56
1200UTC 27.09.2018 12 16.8N 115.3W 967 66
0000UTC 28.09.2018 24 16.8N 117.4W 961 68
1200UTC 28.09.2018 36 16.9N 118.6W 964 64
0000UTC 29.09.2018 48 17.7N 119.6W 968 60
1200UTC 29.09.2018 60 19.4N 120.1W 961 67
0000UTC 30.09.2018 72 21.5N 121.0W 966 62
1200UTC 30.09.2018 84 23.4N 121.4W 971 61
0000UTC 01.10.2018 96 25.3N 120.5W 985 49
1200UTC 01.10.2018 108 26.8N 118.6W 997 36
0000UTC 02.10.2018 120 28.4N 116.9W 1003 25
1200UTC 02.10.2018 132 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 11.1N 98.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.09.2018 48 11.1N 99.8W 1004 29
1200UTC 29.09.2018 60 11.2N 102.2W 1001 40
0000UTC 30.09.2018 72 10.9N 104.7W 996 46
1200UTC 30.09.2018 84 10.5N 106.9W 989 56
0000UTC 01.10.2018 96 10.2N 109.2W 978 60
1200UTC 01.10.2018 108 9.9N 111.4W 962 72
0000UTC 02.10.2018 120 10.0N 113.7W 948 84
1200UTC 02.10.2018 132 10.3N 116.2W 954 81
0000UTC 03.10.2018 144 11.0N 118.1W 955 78

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 13.8N 159.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.09.2018 72 13.7N 160.8W 1003 30
1200UTC 30.09.2018 84 13.3N 164.5W 1001 32
0000UTC 01.10.2018 96 13.6N 167.6W 997 38
1200UTC 01.10.2018 108 13.7N 170.4W 991 45
0000UTC 02.10.2018 120 14.2N 172.5W 982 54
1200UTC 02.10.2018 132 14.8N 174.0W 972 64
0000UTC 03.10.2018 144 16.2N 175.7W 962 69


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 270419


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 270419

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 27.09.2018

TROPICAL STORM KIRK ANALYSED POSITION : 13.0N 56.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 27.09.2018 13.0N 56.3W WEAK
12UTC 27.09.2018 14.2N 59.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.09.2018 14.5N 61.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.09.2018 15.3N 63.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.09.2018 16.1N 65.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.09.2018 16.7N 68.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2018 16.9N 69.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 37.5N 40.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 27.09.2018 37.5N 40.3W STRONG
12UTC 27.09.2018 37.3N 42.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.09.2018 36.4N 44.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.09.2018 36.7N 46.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 29.09.2018 35.8N 49.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.09.2018 35.3N 50.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2018 35.2N 51.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2018 35.5N 53.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.10.2018 35.5N 54.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.10.2018 36.3N 54.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.10.2018 35.8N 55.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.10.2018 34.7N 54.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.10.2018 33.9N 54.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

HURRICANE ROSA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.7N 112.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 27.09.2018 16.7N 112.7W STRONG
12UTC 27.09.2018 16.8N 115.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 28.09.2018 16.8N 117.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.09.2018 16.9N 118.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.09.2018 17.7N 119.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.09.2018 19.4N 120.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.09.2018 21.5N 121.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.09.2018 23.4N 121.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.10.2018 25.3N 120.5W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 01.10.2018 26.8N 118.6W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 02.10.2018 28.4N 116.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 11.1N 98.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.09.2018 11.1N 99.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 29.09.2018 11.2N 102.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2018 10.9N 104.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.09.2018 10.5N 106.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.10.2018 10.2N 109.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.10.2018 9.9N 111.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 02.10.2018 10.0N 113.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 02.10.2018 10.3N 116.2W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.10.2018 11.0N 118.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 13.8N 159.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 30.09.2018 13.7N 160.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2018 13.3N 164.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.10.2018 13.6N 167.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.10.2018 13.7N 170.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.10.2018 14.2N 172.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.10.2018 14.8N 174.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.10.2018 16.2N 175.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 270419


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 270235 RRA
TCDEP5

HURRICANE ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
900 PM MDT WED SEP 26 2018

DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF ROSA HAS
BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC, AND PERHAPS AN EYE IS TRYING TO EMERGE IN THE
LAST FEW SATELLITE IMAGES. OVERALL, ROSA APPEARS SOMEWHAT STRONGER
THAN THE PAST ADVISORY, SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SLIGHTLY RAISED
TO 75 KT- NEAR THE TAFB DVORAK ESTIMATE AND THE CIMSS ADT.

THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN STEADILY STRENGTHENING OVER THE PAST DAY,
AND, WITH CONDUCIVE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE.
A MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION PERIOD IS POSSIBLE IF THE INNER CORE
BECOMES BETTER DEFINED. CURIOUSLY, THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS COME
IN LOWER THAN THE LAST CYCLE, DESPITE NO OBVIOUS INHIBITING FACTORS
FROM ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. I'D RATHER KEEP THE HIGH FORECAST OF
MY PREDECESSOR UNTIL THE REASONS FOR THIS LOWER PEAK INTENSITY
BECOME CLEAR. IN ADDITION, THE CORRECTED-CONSENSUS GUIDANCE IS
HIGHER THAN THE REST OF THE AIDS, SUPPORTING THE STRONGER FORECAST.
BY DAY 3 WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE AS ROSA MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS,
AND RAPID WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST WHILE THE
CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS HIGH SHEAR OVER QUITE COOL WATERS.

ROSA HAS TURNED WESTWARD, NOW MOVING AT ABOUT 10 KT. A MID-LEVEL
HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE
ON THIS GENERAL COURSE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME,
THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD DUE TO A SERIES OF TROUGHS APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES, CAUSING ROSA TO GRADUALLY TURN


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 270235
TCDEP5

Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
900 PM MDT Wed Sep 26 2018

During the past several hours, the convective pattern of Rosa has
become more symmetric, and perhaps an eye is trying to emerge in the
last few satellite images. Overall, Rosa appears somewhat stronger
than the past advisory, so the initial wind speed is slightly raised
to 75 kt- near the TAFB Dvorak estimate and the CIMSS ADT.

The hurricane has been steadily strengthening over the past day,
and, with conducive atmospheric and oceanic conditions in the
forecast for the next couple of days, this trend should continue.
A more rapid intensification period is possible if the inner core
becomes better defined. Curiously, the intensity guidance has come
in lower than the last cycle, despite no obvious inhibiting factors
from all of the global models. I'd rather keep the high forecast of
my predecessor until the reasons for this lower peak intensity
become clear. In addition, the corrected-consensus guidance is
higher than the rest of the aids, supporting the stronger forecast.
By day 3 weakening should commence as Rosa moves over cooler waters,
and rapid weakening is possible by the end of the forecast while the
cyclone encounters high shear over quite cool waters.

Rosa has turned westward, now moving at about 10 kt. A mid-level
high over the southwestern United States should steer the hurricane
on this general course for the next day or so. After that time,
the high shifts eastward due to a series of troughs approaching the
west coast of the United States, causing Rosa to gradually turn
toward the northwest by Friday, north on Saturday and to the
northeast by Monday. There are still some pretty large speed
differences in the models at long range, with the GFS-based guidance
a lot faster than the ECMWF or UKMET models and their ensembles.
There are no obvious reasons to favor either solution at this time,
so the track forecast will stay close to the dynamical model
consensus and the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 16.9N 113.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 17.0N 114.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 17.1N 116.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 17.6N 117.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 18.4N 118.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 21.2N 119.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 24.6N 118.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 28.0N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 270234 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ROSA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
900 PM MDT WED SEP 26 2018

...ROSA STILL STRENGTHENING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 113.1W
ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ROSA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 113.1 WEST. ROSA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH A SLOWER MOTION TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY ANTICIPATED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH (140 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ROSA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY
LATE THURSDAY, WITH FURTHER STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
(165 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB (29.00 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY ROSA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 270234
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rosa Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
900 PM MDT Wed Sep 26 2018

...ROSA STILL STRENGTHENING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 113.1W
ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rosa was located
near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 113.1 West. Rosa is moving
toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is
expected to continue through Thursday, with a slower motion toward
the west-northwest on Friday and northwest on Saturday anticipated.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rosa is forecast to become a major hurricane by
late Thursday, with further strengthening possible through Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico and the southern Baja California Peninsula
late this week and over the weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 270235 RRA
TCMEP5

HURRICANE ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
0300 UTC THU SEP 27 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 113.1W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 113.1W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 112.6W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.0N 114.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.1N 116.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.6N 117.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.4N 118.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.2N 119.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 270235
TCMEP5

HURRICANE ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
0300 UTC THU SEP 27 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 113.1W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 113.1W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 112.6W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.0N 114.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.1N 116.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.6N 117.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.4N 118.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.2N 119.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 24.6N 118.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 28.0N 116.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 113.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 262032 RRA
TCDEP5

HURRICANE ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
300 PM MDT WED SEP 26 2018

ROSA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON. IMPROVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES WITH -83C CLOUD TOPS ARE EVIDENT IN BOTH
VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGES, PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST SEMICIRCLE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BUMPED UP TO 70 KT AND IS A COMPROMISE OF
THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

IT STILL APPEARS LIKELY THAT ROSA WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE IT MOVES OVER WARM OCEANIC
TEMPERATURES AND IN A HIGH MOISTURE AND LOW SHEAR ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE IVCN
AND NOAA-HCCA INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODELS, AND SHOWS STRENGTHENING,
AT A SLOWER PACE, AFTER THE RI PERIOD. BEYOND 48 HOURS, STEADY
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DUE TO DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR, AND A HIGH STATICALLY STABLE
SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT.

ROSA IS CURRENTLY MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 285/9 KT, WITHIN THE
MID-LEVEL EASTERLY STEERING FLOW PRODUCED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
AT AROUND DAY 3, ROSA IS EXPECT TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN
NORTHWARD DAY 4 IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE ALONG TRACK SPREAD BEYOND DAY 3 CONTINUES
TO BE AN ISSUE WITH THE GFS GLOBAL AND HWRF HURRICANE MODEL
INDICATING A MUCH MORE FASTER NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEAST MOTION
THAN THE SLOWER EUROPEAN MODEL CLUSTER. IN THIS SCENARIO,
THE NHC FORECAST WILL REMAIN NEAR THE BETTER PERFORMING VARIOUS


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 262032
TCDEP5

Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
300 PM MDT Wed Sep 26 2018

Rosa continues to strengthen this afternoon. Improved deep
convective banding features with -83C cloud tops are evident in both
visible and microwave images, particularly in the east semicircle.
The initial intensity is bumped up to 70 kt and is a compromise of
the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates.

It still appears likely that Rosa will continue to quickly
strengthen through this evening while it moves over warm oceanic
temperatures and in a high moisture and low shear atmospheric
environment. The official forecast is based on a blend of the IVCN
and NOAA-HCCA intensity consensus models, and shows strengthening,
at a slower pace, after the RI period. Beyond 48 hours, steady
weakening is forecast due to decreasing sea surface temperatures,
increasing southwesterly shear, and a high statically stable
surrounding environment.

Rosa is currently moving west-northwestward, or 285/9 kt, within the
mid-level easterly steering flow produced by a mid-level ridge
extending from northern Mexico westward over the eastern Pacific.
At around day 3, Rosa is expect to move northwestward and then
northward day 4 in response to a mid-latitude trough approaching
from the northwest. The along track spread beyond day 3 continues
to be an issue with the GFS global and HWRF hurricane model
indicating a much more faster north to north-northeast motion
than the slower European model cluster. In this scenario,
the NHC forecast will remain near the better performing various
multi-model consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 16.5N 112.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 16.7N 113.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 16.9N 115.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 17.2N 116.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 17.8N 117.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 20.1N 119.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 23.3N 119.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 01/1800Z 26.6N 117.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 262030 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ROSA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
300 PM MDT WED SEP 26 2018

...ROSA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 112.2W
ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ROSA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST. ROSA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. A NORTHWESTWARD TURN
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH (130 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS, AND RAPID STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTERWARD, FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED AT A SLOWER RATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES
(130 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB (29.15 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY ROSA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 261557

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 26.09.2018

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 34.8N 39.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.09.2018 0 34.8N 39.6W 988 49
0000UTC 27.09.2018 12 36.9N 40.8W 975 55
1200UTC 27.09.2018 24 36.9N 42.4W 975 54
0000UTC 28.09.2018 36 36.4N 44.8W 980 49
1200UTC 28.09.2018 48 36.4N 46.1W 983 45
0000UTC 29.09.2018 60 36.1N 48.9W 985 42
1200UTC 29.09.2018 72 35.8N 51.1W 985 43
0000UTC 30.09.2018 84 35.6N 52.5W 982 45
1200UTC 30.09.2018 96 35.2N 53.7W 979 48
0000UTC 01.10.2018 108 34.6N 54.0W 976 48
1200UTC 01.10.2018 120 34.8N 54.5W 971 58
0000UTC 02.10.2018 132 35.0N 55.1W 962 67
1200UTC 02.10.2018 144 33.9N 56.1W 949 80

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 34.9N 74.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.09.2018 0 34.9N 74.9W 1017 25
0000UTC 27.09.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM KIRK ANALYSED POSITION : 12.0N 53.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.09.2018 0 12.0N 53.5W 1003 39
0000UTC 27.09.2018 12 13.1N 56.9W 1003 39
1200UTC 27.09.2018 24 13.7N 59.5W 1005 37
0000UTC 28.09.2018 36 14.5N 61.8W 1005 36
1200UTC 28.09.2018 48 15.2N 64.2W 1007 34
0000UTC 29.09.2018 60 15.9N 66.5W 1007 32
1200UTC 29.09.2018 72 16.3N 68.9W 1008 26
0000UTC 30.09.2018 84 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE ROSA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.1N 110.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.09.2018 0 16.1N 110.8W 989 47
0000UTC 27.09.2018 12 16.4N 113.4W 978 54
1200UTC 27.09.2018 24 16.4N 115.5W 970 57
0000UTC 28.09.2018 36 16.4N 117.4W 964 62
1200UTC 28.09.2018 48 16.6N 118.9W 964 63
0000UTC 29.09.2018 60 17.5N 119.9W 964 67
1200UTC 29.09.2018 72 18.9N 120.6W 954 74
0000UTC 30.09.2018 84 21.0N 121.5W 959 67
1200UTC 30.09.2018 96 23.0N 121.8W 968 62
0000UTC 01.10.2018 108 24.7N 120.9W 981 52
1200UTC 01.10.2018 120 26.4N 119.0W 995 39
0000UTC 02.10.2018 132 27.8N 116.7W 1002 27
1200UTC 02.10.2018 144 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 11.0N 103.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.09.2018 72 11.0N 103.1W 1004 27
0000UTC 30.09.2018 84 11.9N 105.0W 1001 34
1200UTC 30.09.2018 96 11.9N 107.3W 998 39
0000UTC 01.10.2018 108 11.1N 109.5W 992 47
1200UTC 01.10.2018 120 10.9N 111.4W 979 69
0000UTC 02.10.2018 132 10.8N 113.9W 960 78
1200UTC 02.10.2018 144 11.1N 116.4W 947 83

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 13.1N 163.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.09.2018 96 12.7N 165.3W 1003 33
0000UTC 01.10.2018 108 12.8N 168.5W 998 38
1200UTC 01.10.2018 120 13.1N 171.1W 993 44
0000UTC 02.10.2018 132 13.9N 173.4W 984 48
1200UTC 02.10.2018 144 14.8N 175.2W 974 60

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 33.0N 34.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.10.2018 132 33.0N 34.3W 1011 21
1200UTC 02.10.2018 144 33.8N 33.3W 1009 28


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 261557


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 261557

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 26.09.2018

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 34.8N 39.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 26.09.2018 34.8N 39.6W MODERATE
00UTC 27.09.2018 36.9N 40.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 27.09.2018 36.9N 42.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.09.2018 36.4N 44.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.09.2018 36.4N 46.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.09.2018 36.1N 48.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.09.2018 35.8N 51.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2018 35.6N 52.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2018 35.2N 53.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.10.2018 34.6N 54.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.10.2018 34.8N 54.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.10.2018 35.0N 55.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.10.2018 33.9N 56.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 34.9N 74.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 26.09.2018 34.9N 74.9W WEAK
00UTC 27.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM KIRK ANALYSED POSITION : 12.0N 53.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 26.09.2018 12.0N 53.5W WEAK
00UTC 27.09.2018 13.1N 56.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.09.2018 13.7N 59.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.09.2018 14.5N 61.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.09.2018 15.2N 64.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.09.2018 15.9N 66.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.09.2018 16.3N 68.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE ROSA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.1N 110.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 26.09.2018 16.1N 110.8W MODERATE
00UTC 27.09.2018 16.4N 113.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 27.09.2018 16.4N 115.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 28.09.2018 16.4N 117.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.09.2018 16.6N 118.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.09.2018 17.5N 119.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.09.2018 18.9N 120.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.09.2018 21.0N 121.5W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.09.2018 23.0N 121.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.10.2018 24.7N 120.9W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 01.10.2018 26.4N 119.0W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 02.10.2018 27.8N 116.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 11.0N 103.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.09.2018 11.0N 103.1W WEAK
00UTC 30.09.2018 11.9N 105.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2018 11.9N 107.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.10.2018 11.1N 109.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.10.2018 10.9N 111.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 02.10.2018 10.8N 113.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 02.10.2018 11.1N 116.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 13.1N 163.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 30.09.2018 12.7N 165.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.10.2018 12.8N 168.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.10.2018 13.1N 171.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.10.2018 13.9N 173.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.10.2018 14.8N 175.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 33.0N 34.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 02.10.2018 33.0N 34.3W WEAK
12UTC 02.10.2018 33.8N 33.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 261557


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 261437 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ROSA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
900 AM MDT WED SEP 26 2018

...ROSA BECOMES THE TENTH HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 111.4W
ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ROSA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 111.4 WEST. ROSA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. A
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE QUICKLY INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH (120
KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS, AND RAPID STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTERWARD, STRENGTHENING SHOULD CONTINUE
AT A SLOWER RATE THROUGH FRIDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES
(130 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB (29.24 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY ROSA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 261437
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rosa Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
900 AM MDT Wed Sep 26 2018

...ROSA BECOMES THE TENTH HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 111.4W
ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rosa was located
near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 111.4 West. Rosa is moving
toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this
general motion is forecast to continue for the next two days. A
turn to the northwest is expected by Saturday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have quickly increased to near 75 mph (120
km/h) with higher gusts, and rapid strengthening is forecast to
continue through tonight. Afterward, strengthening should continue
at a slower rate through Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico and the southern Baja California Peninsula
late this week and over the weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 260845 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
300 AM MDT WED SEP 26 2018

AFTER STEADILY INTENSIFYING YESTERDAY, ROSA'S STRENGTHENING TREND
HAS TEMPORARILY PAUSED. THE TROPICAL STORM HAS A WELL-DEFINED
CURVED BAND THAT WRAPS ABOUT THREE-QUARTERS OF THE WAY AROUND THE
CENTER. HOWEVER, SOME DRY AIR APPEARS TO BE INTRUDING INTO THE CORE
FROM THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT, WHICH COULD BE THE REASON WHY ROSA
HAS STOPPED STRENGTHENING FOR NOW. THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM
TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 3.5/55 KT, SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT
THAT VALUE. THIS WIND SPEED IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE LATEST SATCON
ESTIMATE FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN.

A STRENGTHENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO RESUME SOON, AND IT SEEMS
LIKELY THAT ROSA WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS OVER WARM SSTS AND IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW
WIND SHEAR OF 10 KT OR LESS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY
FOLLOWS THE HCCA MODEL, AND BRINGS ROSA TO HURRICANE STRENGTH LATER
TODAY AND MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH ON THURSDAY. BEYOND A FEW DAYS,
STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST DUE TO COOLER SSTS, DRY AND STABLE AIR,
AND AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR.

THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 7 KT, STEERED BY
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION AT
ABOUT THE SAME FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS THE PATTERN HOLDS. AFTER THAT TIME, THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK DOWN AS A LARGE, DEEP-LAYER LOW MOVES TOWARD THE U.S. WEST
COAST. THIS CHANGE IN THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD CAUSE ROSA TO MOVE


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 260845
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Rosa Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
300 AM MDT Wed Sep 26 2018

After steadily intensifying yesterday, Rosa's strengthening trend
has temporarily paused. The tropical storm has a well-defined
curved band that wraps about three-quarters of the way around the
center. However, some dry air appears to be intruding into the core
from the northeastern quadrant, which could be the reason why Rosa
has stopped strengthening for now. The Dvorak classifications from
TAFB and SAB remain 3.5/55 kt, so the initial intensity is held at
that value. This wind speed is also close to the latest SATCON
estimate from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin.

A strengthening trend is expected to resume soon, and it seems
likely that Rosa will rapidly intensify during the next couple of
days while it remains over warm SSTs and in an environment of low
wind shear of 10 kt or less. The NHC intensity forecast closely
follows the HCCA model, and brings Rosa to hurricane strength later
today and major hurricane strength on Thursday. Beyond a few days,
steady weakening is forecast due to cooler SSTs, dry and stable air,
and an increase in southwesterly wind shear.

The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 7 kt, steered by
a mid-level ridge to its north. A west to west-northwest motion at
about the same forward speed is expected for the next couple of days
as the pattern holds. After that time, the ridge is expected to
break down as a large, deep-layer low moves toward the U.S. west
coast. This change in the steering flow should cause Rosa to move
northwestward late Friday and Saturday and then northward late in
the weekend. The models have come into a little better agreement
this cycle, and a slight eastward shift has been made at 96- and
120-hours based on this guidance. This forecast lies fairly close
to the various consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 15.5N 110.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 15.9N 111.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 16.2N 113.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 16.5N 115.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 16.8N 116.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 18.3N 119.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 20.7N 120.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 01/0600Z 23.0N 120.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 260842 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ROSA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
300 AM MDT WED SEP 26 2018

...ROSA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 110.4W
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ROSA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 110.4 WEST. ROSA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE
DAYS. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAPID STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED, AND ROSA IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY AND A MAJOR HURRICANE ON THURSDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB (29.44 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY ROSA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 260842
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rosa Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
300 AM MDT Wed Sep 26 2018

...ROSA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 110.4W
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rosa was
located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 110.4 West. Rosa is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this
general motion is forecast to continue for the next two to three
days. A turn to the northwest is expected by Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid strengthening is anticipated, and Rosa is forecast to
become a hurricane later today and a major hurricane on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico and the southern Baja California Peninsula
late this week and over the weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 260841 RRA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
0900 UTC WED SEP 26 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 110.4W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 110.4W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 109.9W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 15.9N 111.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.2N 113.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 16.5N 115.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.8N 116.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.3N 119.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 260841
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
0900 UTC WED SEP 26 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 110.4W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 110.4W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 109.9W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 15.9N 111.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.2N 113.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 16.5N 115.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.8N 116.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.3N 119.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 20.7N 120.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 23.0N 120.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 110.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 260358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 26.09.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 33.6N 76.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 26.09.2018 0 33.6N 76.4W 1018 22
1200UTC 26.09.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM KIRK ANALYSED POSITION : 11.6N 50.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 26.09.2018 0 11.6N 50.2W 1006 38
1200UTC 26.09.2018 12 11.7N 53.9W 1002 39
0000UTC 27.09.2018 24 12.4N 56.7W 1000 45
1200UTC 27.09.2018 36 13.2N 58.7W 1000 51
0000UTC 28.09.2018 48 14.0N 60.8W 1003 43
1200UTC 28.09.2018 60 14.7N 63.2W 1005 38
0000UTC 29.09.2018 72 15.3N 65.6W 1006 35
1200UTC 29.09.2018 84 15.6N 67.9W 1007 29
0000UTC 30.09.2018 96 16.0N 69.6W 1007 27
1200UTC 30.09.2018 108 15.7N 71.9W 1008 25
0000UTC 01.10.2018 120 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 33.0N 42.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 26.09.2018 0 33.0N 42.7W 998 39
1200UTC 26.09.2018 12 34.5N 39.6W 988 60
0000UTC 27.09.2018 24 37.2N 40.7W 974 56
1200UTC 27.09.2018 36 37.2N 42.4W 972 55
0000UTC 28.09.2018 48 36.3N 44.8W 976 50
1200UTC 28.09.2018 60 36.3N 46.7W 978 53
0000UTC 29.09.2018 72 35.6N 49.6W 979 49
1200UTC 29.09.2018 84 34.7N 51.6W 976 51
0000UTC 30.09.2018 96 33.9N 52.8W 972 55
1200UTC 30.09.2018 108 34.1N 53.5W 967 56
0000UTC 01.10.2018 120 34.2N 54.0W 966 53
1200UTC 01.10.2018 132 34.0N 53.9W 967 52
0000UTC 02.10.2018 144 34.8N 53.0W 959 65

TROPICAL STORM ROSA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 109.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 26.09.2018 0 15.0N 109.0W 996 37
1200UTC 26.09.2018 12 16.1N 111.3W 988 47
0000UTC 27.09.2018 24 16.4N 113.6W 976 56
1200UTC 27.09.2018 36 16.4N 115.8W 967 65
0000UTC 28.09.2018 48 16.3N 117.9W 960 67
1200UTC 28.09.2018 60 16.4N 119.3W 962 63
0000UTC 29.09.2018 72 17.2N 119.8W 966 66
1200UTC 29.09.2018 84 19.0N 120.7W 958 72
0000UTC 30.09.2018 96 20.7N 121.7W 962 65
1200UTC 30.09.2018 108 22.4N 122.1W 968 63
0000UTC 01.10.2018 120 24.2N 121.1W 975 58
1200UTC 01.10.2018 132 26.0N 119.6W 993 40
0000UTC 02.10.2018 144 27.3N 117.8W 1002 27

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 11.4N 103.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.09.2018 84 11.4N 103.0W 1004 28
0000UTC 30.09.2018 96 12.4N 104.5W 1002 31
1200UTC 30.09.2018 108 12.5N 107.3W 999 34
0000UTC 01.10.2018 120 12.6N 109.2W 993 42
1200UTC 01.10.2018 132 12.5N 111.6W 977 70
0000UTC 02.10.2018 144 12.5N 113.9W 958 79

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 15.3N 159.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.09.2018 96 15.4N 161.3W 1005 28
1200UTC 30.09.2018 108 15.4N 164.4W 1004 30
0000UTC 01.10.2018 120 16.1N 167.6W 1003 32
1200UTC 01.10.2018 132 17.3N 169.7W 1003 33
0000UTC 02.10.2018 144 18.8N 171.8W 1002 36


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 260357


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 260358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 26.09.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 33.6N 76.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 26.09.2018 33.6N 76.4W WEAK
12UTC 26.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM KIRK ANALYSED POSITION : 11.6N 50.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 26.09.2018 11.6N 50.2W WEAK
12UTC 26.09.2018 11.7N 53.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.09.2018 12.4N 56.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.09.2018 13.2N 58.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.09.2018 14.0N 60.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.09.2018 14.7N 63.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.09.2018 15.3N 65.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.09.2018 15.6N 67.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2018 16.0N 69.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2018 15.7N 71.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 33.0N 42.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 26.09.2018 33.0N 42.7W MODERATE
12UTC 26.09.2018 34.5N 39.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 27.09.2018 37.2N 40.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 27.09.2018 37.2N 42.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.09.2018 36.3N 44.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.09.2018 36.3N 46.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.09.2018 35.6N 49.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.09.2018 34.7N 51.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2018 33.9N 52.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.09.2018 34.1N 53.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.10.2018 34.2N 54.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.10.2018 34.0N 53.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.10.2018 34.8N 53.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

TROPICAL STORM ROSA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 109.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 26.09.2018 15.0N 109.0W MODERATE
12UTC 26.09.2018 16.1N 111.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 27.09.2018 16.4N 113.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 27.09.2018 16.4N 115.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 28.09.2018 16.3N 117.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.09.2018 16.4N 119.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.09.2018 17.2N 119.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.09.2018 19.0N 120.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.09.2018 20.7N 121.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2018 22.4N 122.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.10.2018 24.2N 121.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.10.2018 26.0N 119.6W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 02.10.2018 27.3N 117.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 11.4N 103.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.09.2018 11.4N 103.0W WEAK
00UTC 30.09.2018 12.4N 104.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2018 12.5N 107.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.10.2018 12.6N 109.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.10.2018 12.5N 111.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 02.10.2018 12.5N 113.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 15.3N 159.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 30.09.2018 15.4N 161.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2018 15.4N 164.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.10.2018 16.1N 167.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.10.2018 17.3N 169.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.10.2018 18.8N 171.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 260357


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 260239 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
900 PM MDT TUE SEP 25 2018

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ROSA IS STILL STRENGTHENING. THE
TROPICAL STORM HAS IMPRESSIVE BANDING FEATURES THAT WRAP
CYCLONICALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST QUADRANT, THOUGH A DRY
SLOT HAS RECENTLY BEEN OBSERVED INFRINGING ON THE STORM'S DEVELOPING
INNER-CORE. THE MOST RECENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
SAB ARE 55 KT, SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO THAT
VALUE.

ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RAPID INTENSIFICATION
(RI) IS EITHER ALREADY UNDERWAY OR IMMINENT. SSMIS IMAGERY FROM
AROUND 2300 UTC APPEARED TO CONFIRM THE ONSET OF RI WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL LOW-LEVEL EYE-LIKE FEATURE THAT HAS BEEN
ASSOCIATED WITH RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN PAST TROPICAL CYCLONES.
ALTHOUGH MORE RECENT IMAGERY INDICATES THIS FEATURE MAY HAVE BEEN
DISRUPTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY SLOT, THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THIS DISRUPTION MAY NOT LAST LONG. THE NHC FORECAST THEREFORE
CONTINUES TO SHOW RI, AND NOW CALLS FOR ROSA TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE IN ABOUT 36 H. BEYOND THAT TIME, THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN A FAIRLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH FRIDAY, HOWEVER,
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES COULD LIMIT THE EXTENT TO WHICH ROSA
INTENSIFIES ONCE IT NEARS MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH. BY THE WEEKEND,
COOLER SSTS AND A DRIER SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CAUSE ROSA TO
BEGIN WEAKENING. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY, AND IS GENERALLY CLOSE TO HCCA, ESPECIALLY BEYOND
48 H.

ROSA IS MOVING STEADILY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 285/8 KT. A MID-


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 260239
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Rosa Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
900 PM MDT Tue Sep 25 2018

Satellite imagery indicates that Rosa is still strengthening. The
tropical storm has impressive banding features that wrap
cyclonically from the northwest to northeast quadrant, though a dry
slot has recently been observed infringing on the storm's developing
inner-core. The most recent Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB are 55 kt, so the initial intensity has been raised to that
value.

All of the intensity guidance suggests that rapid intensification
(RI) is either already underway or imminent. SSMIS imagery from
around 2300 UTC appeared to confirm the onset of RI with the
development of a small low-level eye-like feature that has been
associated with rapid intensification in past tropical cyclones.
Although more recent imagery indicates this feature may have been
disrupted by the aforementioned dry slot, the models suggest that
this disruption may not last long. The NHC forecast therefore
continues to show RI, and now calls for Rosa to become a major
hurricane in about 36 h. Beyond that time, the hurricane is expected
to remain in a fairly favorable environment through Friday, however,
eyewall replacement cycles could limit the extent to which Rosa
intensifies once it nears major hurricane strength. By the weekend,
cooler SSTs and a drier surrounding environment should cause Rosa to
begin weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the
previous advisory, and is generally close to HCCA, especially beyond
48 h.

Rosa is moving steadily west-northwestward, or 285/8 kt. A mid-
level ridge to the north of Rosa should keep the cyclone on the
same general heading for the next several days. There is still some
large discrepancies between the global models on the strength of the
ridge for the next few days, resulting in differences in the forward
speed of Rosa during that time. By the end of the week, a large
mid-latitude trough is expected to create a weakness in the ridge,
allowing Rosa to turn northwestward, and possibly northward. The NHC
track forecast will continue to follow the TVCE and HCCA consensus
aids for this advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 15.1N 109.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 15.5N 110.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 16.0N 112.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 16.3N 114.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 16.6N 115.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 17.8N 119.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 30/0000Z 20.0N 120.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 01/0000Z 22.0N 121.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 260239 RRA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ROSA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
900 PM MDT TUE SEP 25 2018

...ROSA QUICKLY STRENGTHENING...
.............EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 109.7W
ABOUT 445 MI...720 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ROSA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 109.7 WEST. ROSA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAPID STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED, AND ROSA IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT AND COULD BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB (29.44 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY ROSA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER
THIS WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 260239
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rosa Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
900 PM MDT Tue Sep 25 2018

...ROSA QUICKLY STRENGTHENING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 109.7W
ABOUT 445 MI...720 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rosa was
located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 109.7 West. Rosa is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is anticipated, and Rosa is
forecast to become a hurricane overnight and could become a major
hurricane by Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico and the southern Baja California Peninsula later
this week into the upcoming weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 260239 RRA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
0300 UTC WED SEP 26 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 109.7W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 30SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 109.7W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 109.3W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 15.5N 110.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.0N 112.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 16.3N 114.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 16.6N 115.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.8N 119.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 260239
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
0300 UTC WED SEP 26 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 109.7W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 30SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 109.7W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 109.3W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 15.5N 110.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.0N 112.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 16.3N 114.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 16.6N 115.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.8N 119.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 20.0N 120.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 22.0N 121.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 109.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 252054 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
300 PM MDT TUE SEP 25 2018

ROSA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. AN EARLIER 1601
UTC GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED IMPRESSIVE BANDING FEATURES IN THE
SOUTH SEMICIRCLE WITH A BANDING EYE TYPE FEATURE WRAPPING THREE
QUARTERS AROUND THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. A BLEND OF THE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB YIELD AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME MODEST NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IMPINGING IN THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE, THE SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INDICATE THAT THIS SHEAR WILL DIMINISH IN 12 HOURS. SUBSEQUENTLY,
THE SHIPS RI INDEX AND THE DTOPS MODEL INDICATE A RELATIVELY HIGH
PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN 24 HOURS. ACCORDINGLY, THE
NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR ROSA TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 12 HOURS BASED
ON THESE DATA. FURTHER STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE 72 HOUR PERIOD IS
EXPECTED AND IS BASED ON THE IVCN MULTI-MODEL INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
BEYOND DAY 3, GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 290 AT
8 KT, AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 3 DAYS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN
MEXICO WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. IN RESPONSE TO A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST, ROSA SHOULD TURN
TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE ALONG AND CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN THE TRACK
GUIDANCE BEYOND DAY 3. THEREFORE, THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 252054
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Rosa Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
300 PM MDT Tue Sep 25 2018

Rosa has become better organized this afternoon. An earlier 1601
UTC GMI microwave image showed impressive banding features in the
south semicircle with a banding eye type feature wrapping three
quarters around the center of circulation. A blend of the Dvorak
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB yield an initial intensity of
45 kt for this advisory.

Although there is some modest northeasterly shear impinging in the
northeast side of the cyclone, the SHIPS intensity guidance
indicate that this shear will diminish in 12 hours. Subsequently,
the SHIPS RI index and the DTOPS model indicate a relatively high
probability of rapid intensification in 24 hours. Accordingly, the
NHC forecast calls for Rosa to become a hurricane in 12 hours based
on these data. Further strengthening through the 72 hour period is
expected and is based on the IVCN multi-model intensity consensus.
Beyond day 3, gradual weakening is expected due to increasing shear
and slightly cooler waters.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290 at
8 kt, and this general motion is forecast to continue through the
next 3 days south of a mid-level ridge extending from northern
Mexico westward over the eastern Pacific. In response to a
mid-latitude trough approaching from the northwest, Rosa should turn
towards the northwest to north over the weekend. It is worth noting
that there is considerable along and cross-track spread in the track
guidance beyond day 3. Therefore, the official track forecast
follows the TVCN consensus, which lies in between the left and right
global model outlier clusters.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 15.0N 108.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 15.4N 110.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 15.9N 111.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 16.3N 113.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 16.5N 114.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 17.3N 118.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 19.2N 120.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 21.7N 120.8W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Ramos/Roberts


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 252053
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ROSA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
300 PM MDT TUE SEP 25 2018

...ROSA LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 108.9W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ROSA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 108.9 WEST. ROSA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS, AND ROSA IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY INTO A
HURRICANE OVERNIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB (29.53 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 PM MDT.

....
FORECASTER RAMOS/ROBERTS


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 252053 RRA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
2100 UTC TUE SEP 25 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 108.9W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 108.9W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 108.5W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 15.4N 110.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 15.9N 111.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.3N 113.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 16.5N 114.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.3N 118.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 120SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 252053
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
2100 UTC TUE SEP 25 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 108.9W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 108.9W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 108.5W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 15.4N 110.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 15.9N 111.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.3N 113.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 16.5N 114.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.3N 118.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 120SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 19.2N 120.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 21.7N 120.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 108.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER RAMOS/ROBERTS


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 251650

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 25.09.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 31.8N 75.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.09.2018 0 31.8N 75.4W 1018 26
0000UTC 26.09.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM KIRK ANALYSED POSITION : 11.1N 46.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.09.2018 0 11.1N 46.6W 1008 38
0000UTC 26.09.2018 12 11.1N 50.2W 1005 38
1200UTC 26.09.2018 24 11.0N 53.2W 1002 38
0000UTC 27.09.2018 36 11.9N 55.6W 998 48
1200UTC 27.09.2018 48 12.7N 57.5W 993 62
0000UTC 28.09.2018 60 13.6N 59.0W 998 55
1200UTC 28.09.2018 72 14.2N 61.2W 1005 38
0000UTC 29.09.2018 84 14.7N 63.3W 1006 33
1200UTC 29.09.2018 96 15.1N 65.2W 1008 29
0000UTC 30.09.2018 108 15.3N 67.1W 1008 24
1200UTC 30.09.2018 120 15.3N 69.1W 1009 23
0000UTC 01.10.2018 132 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 32.8N 45.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.09.2018 0 32.8N 45.4W 1006 37
0000UTC 26.09.2018 12 32.9N 42.6W 999 41
1200UTC 26.09.2018 24 35.6N 39.8W 985 60
0000UTC 27.09.2018 36 37.4N 41.2W 969 57
1200UTC 27.09.2018 48 37.8N 43.4W 971 52
0000UTC 28.09.2018 60 36.9N 45.3W 972 52
1200UTC 28.09.2018 72 36.4N 47.8W 973 54
0000UTC 29.09.2018 84 35.3N 49.5W 969 55
1200UTC 29.09.2018 96 33.9N 50.6W 965 55
0000UTC 30.09.2018 108 34.0N 50.8W 965 55
1200UTC 30.09.2018 120 34.4N 51.3W 969 56
0000UTC 01.10.2018 132 34.7N 52.1W 966 59
1200UTC 01.10.2018 144 35.0N 51.5W 957 66

TROPICAL STORM 20E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.5N 107.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.09.2018 0 14.5N 107.9W 1004 24
0000UTC 26.09.2018 12 15.2N 109.2W 999 29
1200UTC 26.09.2018 24 16.1N 111.1W 995 38
0000UTC 27.09.2018 36 16.4N 113.4W 983 53
1200UTC 27.09.2018 48 16.6N 115.6W 974 62
0000UTC 28.09.2018 60 16.7N 117.7W 964 66
1200UTC 28.09.2018 72 16.9N 119.3W 964 62
0000UTC 29.09.2018 84 17.5N 120.0W 971 58
1200UTC 29.09.2018 96 19.1N 120.7W 972 63
0000UTC 30.09.2018 108 21.1N 121.4W 967 65
1200UTC 30.09.2018 120 22.6N 121.8W 972 58
0000UTC 01.10.2018 132 24.1N 121.5W 980 52
1200UTC 01.10.2018 144 25.2N 121.4W 993 37

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 11.9N 100.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.09.2018 96 11.6N 101.6W 1004 28
0000UTC 30.09.2018 108 12.5N 104.5W 1003 29
1200UTC 30.09.2018 120 13.0N 106.5W 1001 31
0000UTC 01.10.2018 132 12.7N 109.0W 997 36
1200UTC 01.10.2018 144 12.8N 111.3W 983 64

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 14.0N 158.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.09.2018 96 14.0N 158.8W 1006 23
0000UTC 30.09.2018 108 14.0N 162.4W 1003 30
1200UTC 30.09.2018 120 14.4N 165.9W 1002 36
0000UTC 01.10.2018 132 14.2N 169.0W 1000 35
1200UTC 01.10.2018 144 14.0N 171.3W 995 44


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 251649


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 251649

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 25.09.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 31.8N 75.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 25.09.2018 31.8N 75.4W WEAK
00UTC 26.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM KIRK ANALYSED POSITION : 11.1N 46.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 25.09.2018 11.1N 46.6W WEAK
00UTC 26.09.2018 11.1N 50.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.09.2018 11.0N 53.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.09.2018 11.9N 55.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 27.09.2018 12.7N 57.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 28.09.2018 13.6N 59.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.09.2018 14.2N 61.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 29.09.2018 14.7N 63.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.09.2018 15.1N 65.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2018 15.3N 67.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2018 15.3N 69.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 32.8N 45.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 25.09.2018 32.8N 45.4W WEAK
00UTC 26.09.2018 32.9N 42.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 26.09.2018 35.6N 39.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 27.09.2018 37.4N 41.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 27.09.2018 37.8N 43.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.09.2018 36.9N 45.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.09.2018 36.4N 47.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.09.2018 35.3N 49.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.09.2018 33.9N 50.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.09.2018 34.0N 50.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2018 34.4N 51.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.10.2018 34.7N 52.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.10.2018 35.0N 51.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

TROPICAL STORM 20E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.5N 107.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 25.09.2018 14.5N 107.9W WEAK
00UTC 26.09.2018 15.2N 109.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 26.09.2018 16.1N 111.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 27.09.2018 16.4N 113.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 27.09.2018 16.6N 115.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 28.09.2018 16.7N 117.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.09.2018 16.9N 119.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.09.2018 17.5N 120.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 29.09.2018 19.1N 120.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2018 21.1N 121.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.09.2018 22.6N 121.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.10.2018 24.1N 121.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.10.2018 25.2N 121.4W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 11.9N 100.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.09.2018 11.6N 101.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2018 12.5N 104.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2018 13.0N 106.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.10.2018 12.7N 109.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.10.2018 12.8N 111.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 14.0N 158.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.09.2018 14.0N 158.8W WEAK
00UTC 30.09.2018 14.0N 162.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2018 14.4N 165.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.10.2018 14.2N 169.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.10.2018 14.0N 171.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 251649


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 251600 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20E (ROSA) WARNING NR 002A CORRECTED
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 14.6N 107.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 107.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 15.2N 109.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 15.8N 110.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 16.1N 112.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 16.4N 113.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 17.1N 116.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 18.8N 118.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 21.0N 120.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
251600Z POSITION NEAR 14.8N 108.2W.
TROPICAL STORM 20E (ROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1201 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 252200Z, 260400Z, 261000Z AND 261600Z.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: ADDED STORM NAME.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 251434 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
900 AM MDT TUE SEP 25 2018

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED, WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT AND 45 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB,
RESPECTIVELY, AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS SET AT 40 KT.
THUS THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. CONDITIONS
FAVOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING, WITH ROSA LIKELY TO REMAIN IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF WARM WATERS, LOW SHEAR, AND A VERY MOIST MID-LEVEL
AIR MASS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE, BUT BELOW SOME OF
THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE. BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND SHOULD COMMENCE AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OVER
SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS.

THE STORM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 285/8 KT. A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE
NORTH OF ROSA THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
WOULD LIKELY MAINTAIN A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE
NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO. BY DAYS 4-5, THE RIDGE IS PREDICTED TO WEAKEN
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT
FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE CORRECTED DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS, HCCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 14.7N 108.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 15.2N 109.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 15.8N 110.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 16.1N 112.1W 70 KT 80 MPH


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 251434
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Rosa Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
900 AM MDT Tue Sep 25 2018

The cloud pattern of the tropical cyclone has become better
organized, with developing convective banding features. Dvorak
intensity estimates are 35 kt and 45 kt from SAB and TAFB,
respectively, and the current intensity estimate is set at 40 kt.
Thus the system is being upgraded to a tropical storm. Conditions
favor continued strengthening, with Rosa likely to remain in an
environment of warm waters, low shear, and a very moist mid-level
air mass for the next several days. The official intensity
forecast is a little higher than the previous one, but below some of
the objective guidance. By late in the forecast period, a gradual
weakening trend should commence as the system begins to move over
slightly cooler waters.

The storm is moving west-northwestward, or 285/8 kt. A mid-level
ridge is forecast by the global models to remain in place to the
north of Rosa through the middle part of the forecast period. This
would likely maintain a generally west-northwestward motion for the
next 72 hours or so. By days 4-5, the ridge is predicted to weaken
which should result in a gradual turn toward the northwest and
north-northwest. The official track forecast is similar to that
from the previous advisory and is close to the corrected dynamical
model consensus, HCCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 14.7N 108.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 15.2N 109.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 15.8N 110.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 16.1N 112.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 16.4N 113.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 17.1N 116.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 18.8N 118.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 30/1200Z 21.0N 120.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 251434
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ROSA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
900 AM MDT TUE SEP 25 2018

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 108.0W
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ROSA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 108.0 WEST. ROSA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY, AND ROSA COULD
BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 PM MDT.

....
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 251433 RRA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
1500 UTC TUE SEP 25 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 108.0W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 108.0W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 107.7W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 15.2N 109.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 15.8N 110.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.1N 112.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 16.4N 113.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.1N 116.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 251433
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
1500 UTC TUE SEP 25 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 108.0W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 108.0W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 107.7W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 15.2N 109.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 15.8N 110.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.1N 112.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 16.4N 113.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.1N 116.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 18.8N 118.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 21.0N 120.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 108.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 250843 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
300 AM MDT TUE SEP 25 2018

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT NHC HAS BEEN MONITORING OFF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO HAS NOW BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION, THE
TWENTIETH OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC 2018 SEASON. ASCAT DATA FROM
AROUND 0400 UTC INDICATED THAT THE SYSTEM HAD A WELL-DEFINED CENTER
AND MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE. IN ADDITION, SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW DEEP CONVECTION INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
NEAR THE CENTER. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 30 KT, BASED ON
THE ASCAT DATA, BUT THIS IS A LITTLE BELOW THE LATEST DVORAK
ESTIMATE FROM TAFB.

SINCE THE DEPRESSION HAS ONLY RECENTLY FORMED, THE INITIAL MOTION
IS AN UNCERTAIN 280/7 KT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP THE DEPRESSION ON A WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD PATH AT ABOUT THE SAME FORWARD SPEED FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREAFTER, THE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN
DUE TO A LARGE CUT OFF DEEP-LAYER LOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES. IN RESPONSE, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND. THE MODELS AGREE ON THIS OVERALL
SCENARIO, BUT THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CLOSE TO THE BEST PERFORMING MODELS, THE
CONSENSUS AIDS.

THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THE DEPRESSION TO
STRENGTHEN. SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE WARM BENEATH THE
CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 250843
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Twenty-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018
300 AM MDT Tue Sep 25 2018

The low pressure system that NHC has been monitoring off the coast
of southwestern Mexico has now become a tropical depression, the
twentieth of the eastern North Pacific 2018 season. ASCAT data from
around 0400 UTC indicated that the system had a well-defined center
and maximum winds in the 25-30 kt range. In addition, satellite
images show deep convection increasing in coverage and intensity
near the center. The initial wind speed is set at 30 kt, based on
the ASCAT data, but this is a little below the latest Dvorak
estimate from TAFB.

Since the depression has only recently formed, the initial motion
is an uncertain 280/7 kt. Mid-level ridging to the north of the
system should keep the depression on a westward to west-
northwestward path at about the same forward speed for the
next few days. Thereafter, the models show the ridge breaking down
due to a large cut off deep-layer low moving toward the west coast
of the United States. In response, the cyclone is expected to turn
to the northwest this weekend. The models agree on this overall
scenario, but there is a fair amount of spread by the end of the
forecast period. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of
the guidance envelope and close to the best performing models, the
consensus aids.

The environmental conditions appear favorable for the depression to
strengthen. SSTs are expected to remain quite warm beneath the
cyclone for the next several days while vertical wind shear values
are around 10 kt or less. These conditions combined with a
moist airmass should allow for at least steady strengthening during
the next 3 to 4 days. Some weakening is possible by the end of the
forecast period due to slightly cooler SSTs and an increase in
shear. The NHC intensity forecast shows a slower rate of
strengthening than the guidance, since the system is still
in the developing stage, but predicts peak winds near the IVCN
consensus model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 14.5N 107.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 14.9N 108.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 15.5N 109.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 15.8N 111.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 16.1N 112.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 16.9N 115.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 18.3N 118.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 30/0600Z 20.7N 119.5W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 250843
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
300 AM MDT TUE SEP 25 2018

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 107.2W
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 107.2 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). A WEST
TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION AT A SIMILAR FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 AM MDT.

....
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 250843 RRA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
0900 UTC TUE SEP 25 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 107.2W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 107.2W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 106.9W

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 14.9N 108.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 15.5N 109.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 15.8N 111.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.1N 112.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.9N 115.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 18.3N 118.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 20.7N 119.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 107.2W


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 250843
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018
0900 UTC TUE SEP 25 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 107.2W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 107.2W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 106.9W

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 14.9N 108.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 15.5N 109.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 15.8N 111.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.1N 112.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.9N 115.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 18.3N 118.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 20.7N 119.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 107.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI