Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for SERGIO-18
in Mexico

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones (WT) or Tsunami (WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present. The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

2018-10-12 21:47

WTPN32 PHNC 122200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21E (SERGIO) WARNING NR 054
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 21E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 28.5N 110.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 28.5N 110.7W
---
REMARKS:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21E (SERGIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

2018-10-12 21:35

WTPZ41 KNHC 122032
TCDEP1

REMNANTS OF SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 54
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
300 PM MDT FRI OCT 12 2018

THE CENTER OF SERGIO MOVED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO AND NO LONGER HAS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER. ON
THIS BASIS, NHC HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. THE
REMNANTS OF SERGIO WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ABOUT 22 KT AND
COULD STILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IN HEAVY SQUALLS.

SERGIO'S REMNANTS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS WHICH
COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES
WITHIN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. FLASH
FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE U.S. DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 29.3N 109.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...REMNANTS OF SERGIO
12H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-10-12 21:35

WTPZ31 KNHC 122030 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 54
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
300 PM MDT FRI OCT 12 2018

...SERGIO DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 109.8W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM NE OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), THE REMNANTS OF SERGIO WERE LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 109.8 WEST. THE REMNANTS ARE MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH (41 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB (29.53 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: THE REMNANTS OF SERGIO WILL LIKELY PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.

MOISTURE FROM SERGIO WILL AFFECT THE UNITED STATES, WITH TOTAL
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES FROM SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING.

2018-10-12 21:35

WTPZ31 KNHC 122030
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Sergio Advisory Number 54
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
300 PM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018

...SERGIO DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 109.8W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM NE OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the remnants of Sergio were located near
latitude 29.3 North, longitude 109.8 West. The remnants are moving
toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue until dissipation tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The remnants of Sergio will likely produce total rain
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8
inches over northwestern Mexico. This rainfall could cause
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in mountainous
terrain.

Moisture from Sergio will affect the United States, with total
rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches from southeast Arizona and
southern New Mexico toward the southern Plains through Saturday.
This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-10-12 21:35

WTPZ21 KNHC 122030
TCMEP1

REMNANTS OF SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 54
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
2100 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 109.8W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 109.8W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 110.7W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N 109.8W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

..
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-10-12 18:33

WTPZ31 KNHC 121747 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SERGIO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 53A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
1200 PM MDT FRI OCT 12 2018

...SERGIO HAS MOVED INLAND OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND WEAKENS TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 111.0W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM N OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
SERGIO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SERGIO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 111.0 WEST. SERGIO
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH (39 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK,
SERGIO OR ITS REMNANTS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SERGIO IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT
LOW WHILE MOVING OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

2018-10-12 18:33

WTPZ31 KNHC 121747
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Sergio Intermediate Advisory Number 53A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
1200 PM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018

...SERGIO HAS MOVED INLAND OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND WEAKENS TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 111.0W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM N OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued all the Tropical Storm
Warnings.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in northwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of
Sergio.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sergio
was located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 111.0 West. Sergio
is moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue today. On the forecast track,
Sergio or its remnants will continue to move over northwestern
Mexico later today and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Sergio is forecast to degenerate into a remnant
low while moving over northwestern Mexico later today or tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Sergio is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches over
northwestern Mexico. This rainfall could cause life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides in mountainous terrain.

Moisture from Sergio will affect the United States, with total
rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches from southeast Arizona and
southern New Mexico toward the southern Plains through Saturday.
This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are still occuring
primarily to the north and east of the track of Sergio. These winds
will continue to diminish today.

SURF: Swells generated by Sergio could still affect much
of the Baja California peninsula today and the Sea of Cortez, likely
causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-10-12 16:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 121545 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 53...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
900 AM MDT FRI OCT 12 2018

CORRECTED TO ADD THE WORD HOURS IN THE FIRST PARAGRAPH OF
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

...SERGIO ENTERING THE SEA OF CORTEZ...
............STRONG GUSTY WINDS STILL OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA
AND
INCREASING ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 111.9W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ENE OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WSW OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.......... WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA
EUGENIA
TO
CABO SAN LAZARO
.......... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM MULEGE TO
BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS IN THE STATE OF SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
SERGIO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST. SERGIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH (39 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE

2018-10-12 16:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 121545 CCA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number 53...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
900 AM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018

Corrected to add the word hours in the first paragraph of
Discussion and Outlook

...SERGIO ENTERING THE SEA OF CORTEZ...
...STRONG GUSTY WINDS STILL OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND
INCREASING ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 111.9W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ENE OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WSW OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to
Cabo San Lazaro
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Mulege to
Bahia San Juan Bautista

The Tropical Storm Warning will likely be discontinued later today.

Interests in the state of Sonora should monitor the progress of
Sergio.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was
located near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 111.9 West. Sergio is
moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue during the next day or so. On the
forecast track, the center of Sergio will move across the Sea of
Cortez during the next several hours and then move over northwestern
Mexico later today or tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Sergio should weaken to a tropical depression later today, and
degenerate into a remnant low while moving over northwestern Mexico.
Dissipation should occur on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. A Mexican Navy automatic weather station in the
Port of Santa Rosalia measured a wind gust to 60 mph (97 km/h) as
Sergio passed nearby. Guaymas, on the west coast of mainland
Mexico, recently reported a wind gust to 52 mph (83 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Sergio is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches over
Sonora and the central peninsula of Baja California through
today. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides in mountainous terrain.

Moisture from Sergio will affect the United States, with total
rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches from southeast Arizona and
southern New Mexico toward the southern Plains through Saturday.
This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring in the warning area of
the Baja California peninsula, and these conditions will spread
northeastward this morning. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are
already reaching the coast of mainland Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will affect much of the Baja
California peninsula today, likely causing life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-10-12 16:32

WTNT82 EGRR 121556

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 12.10.2018

TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL ANALYSED POSITION : 39.4N 71.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.10.2018 0 39.4N 71.3W 982 51
0000UTC 13.10.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 32.5N 29.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.10.2018 0 32.5N 29.8W 965 66
0000UTC 13.10.2018 12 34.9N 22.2W 964 73
1200UTC 13.10.2018 24 38.2N 14.7W 973 66
0000UTC 14.10.2018 36 42.6N 8.2W 987 45
1200UTC 14.10.2018 48 46.4N 4.2W 995 40
0000UTC 15.10.2018 60 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM NADINE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.9N 35.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.10.2018 0 15.9N 35.6W 1003 45
0000UTC 13.10.2018 12 16.1N 38.2W 1009 38
1200UTC 13.10.2018 24 16.2N 41.2W 1013 32
0000UTC 14.10.2018 36 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 26.2N 113.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.10.2018 0 26.2N 113.2W 996 42
0000UTC 13.10.2018 12 29.5N 109.5W 1003 24
1200UTC 13.10.2018 24 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 15.3N 101.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.10.2018 120 15.3N 101.8W 1005 26
0000UTC 18.10.2018 132 15.5N 102.4W 1003 30
1200UTC 18.10.2018 144 15.9N 103.6W 1002 31

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 11.4N 114.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.10.2018 132 11.9N 114.1W 1006 24
1200UTC 18.10.2018 144 12.5N 113.9W 1007 22

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 13.1N 136.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.10.2018 144 12.7N 136.6W 1007 26


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 121556

2018-10-12 16:32

WTNT80 EGRR 121556

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 12.10.2018

TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL ANALYSED POSITION : 39.4N 71.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 12.10.2018 39.4N 71.3W MODERATE
00UTC 13.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 32.5N 29.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 12.10.2018 32.5N 29.8W STRONG
00UTC 13.10.2018 34.9N 22.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.10.2018 38.2N 14.7W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.10.2018 42.6N 8.2W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 14.10.2018 46.4N 4.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 15.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM NADINE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.9N 35.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 12.10.2018 15.9N 35.6W WEAK
00UTC 13.10.2018 16.1N 38.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.10.2018 16.2N 41.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 26.2N 113.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 12.10.2018 26.2N 113.2W MODERATE
00UTC 13.10.2018 29.5N 109.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 15.3N 101.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.10.2018 15.3N 101.8W WEAK
00UTC 18.10.2018 15.5N 102.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.10.2018 15.9N 103.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 11.4N 114.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 18.10.2018 11.9N 114.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.10.2018 12.5N 113.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 13.1N 136.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 18.10.2018 12.7N 136.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 121556

2018-10-12 15:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 121457
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 53
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
900 AM MDT FRI OCT 12 2018

THE CENTER OF SERGIO CROSSED THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND IS NOW MOVING OVER THE SEA OF CORTEZ.
THE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND IS DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE
STILL VIGOROUS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM THE
AUTOMATIC STATIONS OF THE MEXICAN NAVY, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 35
KT. THE EFFECT OF THE HIGH TERRAIN AND SHEAR WILL RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING, AND SERGIO WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SERGIO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 20 KT EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THIS TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL
DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.

THE PRIMARY THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH SERGIO AND ITS REMNANTS CONTINUES
TO BE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WITHIN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN THE MEXICO STATES OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR,
SONORA, PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE U.S. SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS
POTENTIAL HAZARD, SEE PRODUCTS FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
AND YOUR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 27.5N 111.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 29.5N 109.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-10-12 15:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 121455 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 53
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
900 AM MDT FRI OCT 12 2018

...SERGIO ENTERING THE SEA OF CORTEZ...
.........STRONG GUSTY WINDS STILL OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
AND
INCREASING ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO... .


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 111.9W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ENE OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WSW OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
....... WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA
TO
CABO SAN LAZARO
....... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM MULEGE TO
BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS IN THE STATE OF SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
SERGIO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST. SERGIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH (39 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF SERGIO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SEA OF

2018-10-12 15:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 121455
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number 53
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
900 AM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018

...SERGIO ENTERING THE SEA OF CORTEZ...
...STRONG GUSTY WINDS STILL OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND
INCREASING ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO... .


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 111.9W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ENE OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WSW OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to
Cabo San Lazaro
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Mulege to
Bahia San Juan Bautista

The Tropical Storm Warning will likely be discontinued later today.

Interests in the state of Sonora should monitor the progress of
Sergio.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was
located near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 111.9 West. Sergio is
moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue during the next day or so. On the
forecast track, the center of Sergio will move across the Sea of
Cortez during the next several and then move over northwestern
Mexico later today or tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Sergio should weaken to a tropical depression later today, and
degenerate into a remnant low while moving over northwestern Mexico.
Dissipation should occur on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. A Mexican Navy automatic weather station in the
Port of Santa Rosalia measured a wind gust to 60 mph (97 km/h) as
Sergio passed nearby. Guaymas, on the west coast of mainland
Mexico, recently reported a wind gust to 52 mph (83 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Sergio is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches over
Sonora and the central peninsula of Baja California through
today. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides in mountainous terrain.

Moisture from Sergio will affect the United States, with total
rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches from southeast Arizona and
southern New Mexico toward the southern Plains through Saturday.
This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring in the warning area of
the Baja California peninsula, and these conditions will spread
northeastward this morning. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are
already reaching the coast of mainland Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will affect much of the Baja
California peninsula today, likely causing life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-10-12 15:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 121455
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 53
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
1500 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO
CABO SAN LAZARO
... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM MULEGE TO
BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS IN THIS CASE THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS IN THE STATE OF SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
SERGIO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 111.9W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 80SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 210SE 210SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 111.9W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 112.8W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 29.5N 109.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.5N 111.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

....
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-10-12 15:32

WTPN32 PHNC 121600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 21E (SERGIO) WARNING NR 053
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 26.8N 112.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.8N 112.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 29.5N 109.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
121600Z POSITION NEAR 27.7N 111.5W.
TROPICAL STORM 21E (SERGIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 419 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 122200Z.//
NNNN

2018-10-12 12:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 121138 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 52A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
600 AM MDT FRI OCT 12 2018

...SERGIO CROSSING BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND WEAKENING FAST...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 112.8W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SW OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO
CABO SAN LAZARO
... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM MULEGE TO
BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS IN THIS CASE THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
SERGIO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 112.8 WEST. SERGIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH (39 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF SERGIO WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE

2018-10-12 12:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 121138
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sergio Intermediate Advisory Number 52A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
600 AM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018

...SERGIO CROSSING BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND WEAKENING FAST...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 112.8W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SW OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to
Cabo San Lazaro
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Mulege to
Bahia San Juan Bautista

A Tropical Storm Warning means in this case that tropical storm
conditions are occurring somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Sergio.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was
located near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 112.8 West. Sergio is
moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue during the next day or so. On the
forecast track, the center of Sergio will continue to cross the
central portion of the Baja California peninsula this morning, and
then move over mainland northwestern Mexico later tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (70 km/h)
with higher gusts. Sergio should weaken to a tropical depression
later today, and degenerate into a remnant low while moving over
northwestern Mexico. Dissipation should occur Saturday night or
Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Sergio is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches over
Sonora and the central peninsula of Baja California through
today. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides in mountainous terrain.

Moisture from Sergio will affect the United States, with total
rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches from southeast Arizona and
southern New Mexico toward the southern Plains through Saturday.
This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring in the warning area of
the Baja California peninsula, and these conditions will spread
northeastward this morning. Gusty winds could reach the coast
of mainland Mexico tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will affect much of the Baja
California peninsula today, likely causing life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-10-12 09:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 120855 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 52
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
300 AM MDT FRI OCT 12 2018

SERGIO'S CLOUD SHIELD IS WELL SEPARATED FROM THE POORLY ORGANIZED
SURFACE CIRCULATION AND IS CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.
SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES YIELD A REDUCTION IN THE
INITIAL INTENSITY TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MORNING DUE TO COOL OCEANIC SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND BELLIGERENT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR, BUT
SERGIO IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MAKE LANDFALL
IN THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. AFTERWARD, SERGIO
SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME A DEPRESSION AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT
TRAVERSES THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE NORTHWESTERN MEXICO STATE OF
SONORA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTHEASTWARD, OR 045/21
KT, WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PRODUCED BY A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SITUATED JUST WEST OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
THIS SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN SHOULD STEER SERGIO TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AT AN ACCELERATED RATE OF SPEED. A 36 HOUR
POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW POINT IS MAINTAINED TO SIMPLY REPRESENT
THE INLAND MOTION OF SERGIO. THE NHC FORECAST LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE VARIOUS MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AIDS, AND IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

THE PRIMARY THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH SERGIO AND ITS REMNANTS CONTINUES
TO BE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WITHIN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN THE MEXICO STATES OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR,
SONORA, THE U.S. SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND ARKANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS POTENTIAL HAZARD, SEE PRODUCTS FROM

2018-10-12 09:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 120855
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 52
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
300 AM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018

Sergio's cloud shield is well separated from the poorly organized
surface circulation and is confined to the northwest quadrant.
Subjective satellite intensity estimates yield a reduction in the
initial intensity to 45 kt for this advisory.

Weakening should continue this morning due to cool oceanic sea
surface temperatures and belligerent southwesterly shear, but
Sergio is still expected to be a tropical storm as it make landfall
in the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur. Afterward, Sergio
should quickly become a depression and eventually dissipate as it
traverses the rugged terrain of the northwestern Mexico state of
Sonora.

The initial motion is estimated to be northeastward, or 045/21
kt, within the deep-layer southwesterly flow produced by a
mid-latitude trough situated just west of the California coast.
This synoptic steering pattern should steer Sergio toward the
northeast at an accelerated rate of speed. A 36 hour
post-tropical/remnant low point is maintained to simply represent
the inland motion of Sergio. The NHC forecast lies in the middle of
the various multi-model consensus aids, and is basically an update
of the previous package.

The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues
to be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within
mountainous terrain in the Mexico states of Baja California Sur,
Sonora, the U.S. Southern Plains, and Arkansas through the weekend.
For more information about this potential hazard, see products from
the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather forecast
office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 26.1N 113.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 28.2N 111.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 13/0600Z 31.0N 107.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 13/1800Z 33.8N 103.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-10-12 09:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 120854 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 52
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
300 AM MDT FRI OCT 12 2018

...SERGIO WEAKENING AS IT QUICKLY APPROACHES THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR...
....RAINBANDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE PENINSULA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO STATE OF SONORA...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 113.8W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM NW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SW OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO
CABO SAN LAZARO
.. EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM MULEGE TO
BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
SERGIO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 113.8 WEST. SERGIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH (39 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL

2018-10-12 09:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 120854
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number 52
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
300 AM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018

...SERGIO WEAKENING AS IT QUICKLY APPROACHES THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR...
...RAINBANDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE PENINSULA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO STATE OF SONORA...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 113.8W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM NW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SW OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to
Cabo San Lazaro
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Mulege to
Bahia San Juan Bautista

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Sergio.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was
located near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 113.8 West. Sergio is
moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue during the next day or so. On the
forecast track, the center of Sergio will make landfall in the
Pacific coast of Baja California Sur later this morning and then
move over mainland northwestern Mexico by Friday evening.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual weakening should continue today, but
Sergio is still forecast to reach the central Baja California
peninsula as a tropical storm, then weaken to a tropical depression,
and degenerate into a remnant low while moving over the the
northwestern Mexico state of Sonora. Dissipation should occur
Saturday night or Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Sergio is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches over
Sonora and the central peninsula of Baja California through
Friday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides in mountainous terrain.

Moisture from Sergio will affect the United States, with total
rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches from southeast Arizona and
southern New Mexico toward the southern Plains through Saturday.
This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
along the western coast of the Baja California peninsula later
tonight, and these conditions will spread to the east coast of the
peninsula tonight or early Friday. Gusty winds could reach the
coast of mainland Mexico late Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will affect much of the Baja
California peninsula for the next day or two, likely causing
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-10-12 09:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 120852
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 52
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
0900 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO
CABO SAN LAZARO
... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM MULEGE TO
BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
SERGIO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 113.8W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 210SE 210SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 113.8W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 114.7W

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 28.2N 111.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 31.0N 107.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 33.8N 103.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.1N 113.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z

....
FORECASTER ROBERTS

2018-10-12 06:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 120545 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 51A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
1100 PM PDT THU OCT 11 2018

...OUTER RAINBANDS SPREADING OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND THE
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO STATE OF SONORA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 114.8W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM WNW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM SW OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO
CABO SAN LAZARO
... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM MULEGE TO
BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
SERGIO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM PDT (0600 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 114.8 WEST. SERGIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH (37 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE

2018-10-12 06:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 120545
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sergio Intermediate Advisory Number 51A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
1100 PM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018

...OUTER RAINBANDS SPREADING OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND THE
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO STATE OF SONORA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 114.8W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM WNW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM SW OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to
Cabo San Lazaro
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Mulege to
Bahia San Juan Bautista

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Sergio.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM PDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was
located near latitude 25.3 North, longitude 114.8 West. Sergio is
moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue during the next day or so. On the
forecast track, the center of Sergio will be near the Pacific coast
of Baja California Sur early Friday and then move over mainland
northwestern Mexico by Friday evening.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening should begin later tonight, but Sergio is
still forecast to reach the central Baja California peninsula as a
tropical storm, then weaken to a tropical depression before reaching
Sonora.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Sergio is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts
of 10 inches across the central peninsula of Baja California
and Sonora through Friday. This could lead to life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain.

Storm total accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6
inches, are expected across the southern Plains and Arkansas from
this weekend into Monday. This rainfall could cause life-
threatening flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
along the western coast of the Baja California peninsula later
tonight, and these conditions will spread to the east coast of the
peninsula tonight or early Friday. Gusty winds could reach the
coast of mainland Mexico late Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will affect much of the Baja
California peninsula for the next day or two, likely causing
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-10-12 04:32

WTNT82 EGRR 120357

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 12.10.2018

HURRICANE LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 30.2N 35.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.10.2018 0 30.2N 35.7W 969 64
1200UTC 12.10.2018 12 32.0N 30.5W 969 64
0000UTC 13.10.2018 24 33.1N 23.9W 971 70
1200UTC 13.10.2018 36 34.0N 18.6W 979 61
0000UTC 14.10.2018 48 33.1N 15.8W 997 41
1200UTC 14.10.2018 60 31.7N 15.7W 1006 32
0000UTC 15.10.2018 72 30.6N 15.9W 1010 29
1200UTC 15.10.2018 84 29.5N 17.4W 1013 25
0000UTC 16.10.2018 96 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL ANALYSED POSITION : 36.7N 77.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.10.2018 0 36.7N 77.3W 990 40
1200UTC 12.10.2018 12 39.4N 71.0W 984 53
0000UTC 13.10.2018 24 42.6N 61.5W 977 53
1200UTC 13.10.2018 36 45.7N 48.7W 980 49
0000UTC 14.10.2018 48 47.3N 33.9W 984 44
1200UTC 14.10.2018 60 47.1N 22.7W 991 41
0000UTC 15.10.2018 72 46.7N 16.0W 1001 33
1200UTC 15.10.2018 84 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM NADINE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 34.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.10.2018 0 15.0N 34.7W 1001 43
1200UTC 12.10.2018 12 15.2N 36.6W 1007 35
0000UTC 13.10.2018 24 15.2N 38.4W 1009 33
1200UTC 13.10.2018 36 15.3N 41.1W 1012 31
0000UTC 14.10.2018 48 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 23.6N 116.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.10.2018 0 23.6N 116.6W 988 48
1200UTC 12.10.2018 12 26.4N 113.4W 992 45
0000UTC 13.10.2018 24 29.0N 109.4W 1001 23
1200UTC 13.10.2018 36 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 12.3N 134.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 17.10.2018 120 12.4N 134.6W 1006 24
1200UTC 17.10.2018 132 12.7N 135.5W 1006 26
0000UTC 18.10.2018 144 12.7N 136.6W 1004 25

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 15.9N 101.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.10.2018 132 15.9N 101.0W 1003 34
0000UTC 18.10.2018 144 15.8N 102.0W 998 40


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 120357

2018-10-12 04:32

WTNT80 EGRR 120357

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 12.10.2018

HURRICANE LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 30.2N 35.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 12.10.2018 30.2N 35.7W STRONG
12UTC 12.10.2018 32.0N 30.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.10.2018 33.1N 23.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.10.2018 34.0N 18.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.10.2018 33.1N 15.8W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 14.10.2018 31.7N 15.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 15.10.2018 30.6N 15.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.10.2018 29.5N 17.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL ANALYSED POSITION : 36.7N 77.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 12.10.2018 36.7N 77.3W MODERATE
12UTC 12.10.2018 39.4N 71.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.10.2018 42.6N 61.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.10.2018 45.7N 48.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.10.2018 47.3N 33.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 14.10.2018 47.1N 22.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 15.10.2018 46.7N 16.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM NADINE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 34.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 12.10.2018 15.0N 34.7W WEAK
12UTC 12.10.2018 15.2N 36.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.10.2018 15.2N 38.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.10.2018 15.3N 41.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 23.6N 116.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 12.10.2018 23.6N 116.6W MODERATE
12UTC 12.10.2018 26.4N 113.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.10.2018 29.0N 109.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 12.3N 134.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 17.10.2018 12.4N 134.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 17.10.2018 12.7N 135.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.10.2018 12.7N 136.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 15.9N 101.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.10.2018 15.9N 101.0W WEAK
00UTC 18.10.2018 15.8N 102.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 120357

2018-10-12 03:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 120250 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 51
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
800 PM PDT THU OCT 11 2018

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE WANE WITH SERGIO DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS WITH A RELATIVELY SMALL PATCH REMAINING IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. STILL, THE CIRCULATION OF SERGIO IS FAIRLY
LARGE AND VIGOROUS AND WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SPIN DOWN. THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 50 KT, ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE
SATELLITE ESTIMATES SINCE WE HAVEN'T HAD ASCAT DATA IN QUITE SOME
TIME. WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE OVERNIGHT DUE TO COOL WATERS AND
INCREASING SHEAR. SERGIO, HOWEVER, IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE A
TROPICAL STORM WHEN IT MOVES OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
ON FRIDAY. THEREAFTER, IT SHOULD WEAKEN FASTER WHILE IT INTERACTS
WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN, THEN REACHING THE STATE OF SONORA AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND DISSIPATING SOON THEREAFTER.

SERGIO CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 KT. MODELS ARE VERY
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON THIS TRACK AND SPEED, STAYING VIRTUALLY
UNCHANGED UNTIL DISSIPATION BY 36 HOURS OR SO. NOTE THAT THE
36-HOUR POINT IS MERELY A PLACE HOLDER FOR THE REMNANTS OF THE
CYCLONE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE PRIMARY THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH SERGIO AND ITS REMNANTS CONTINUES
TO BE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WITHIN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN THE MEXICO STATES OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR,
SONORA, THE U.S. SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND ARKANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS POTENTIAL HAZARD, SEE PRODUCTS FROM
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER AND YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
FORECAST OFFICE.

2018-10-12 03:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 120250
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 51
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
800 PM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018

Deep convection has been on the wane with Sergio during the past
several hours with a relatively small patch remaining in the
northern semicircle. Still, the circulation of Sergio is fairly
large and vigorous and will take some time to spin down. The
initial wind speed is held at 50 kt, on the high side of the
satellite estimates since we haven't had ASCAT data in quite some
time. Weakening should commence overnight due to cool waters and
increasing shear. Sergio, however, is expected to still be a
tropical storm when it moves over the Baja California peninsula
on Friday. Thereafter, it should weaken faster while it interacts
with the high terrain, then reaching the state of Sonora as a
tropical depression and dissipating soon thereafter.

Sergio continues moving northeastward at 20 kt. Models are very
tightly clustered on this track and speed, staying virtually
unchanged until dissipation by 36 hours or so. Note that the
36-hour point is merely a place holder for the remnants of the
cyclone. No significant changes were made to the previous forecast.

The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues
to be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within
mountainous terrain in the Mexico states of Baja California Sur,
Sonora, the U.S. Southern Plains, and Arkansas through the weekend.
For more information about this potential hazard, see products from
the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather
forecast office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 24.7N 115.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 26.7N 113.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 13/0000Z 29.6N 109.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 13/1200Z 32.5N 105.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-10-12 03:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 120249 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 51
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
800 PM PDT THU OCT 11 2018

...RAINBANDS FROM SERGIO NEARING BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 115.4W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM W OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SW OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO
CABO SAN LAZARO
... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM MULEGE TO
BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
SERGIO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 115.4 WEST. SERGIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH (37 KM/H), AND THIS TRACK IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE
CENTER OF SERGIO WILL BE NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

2018-10-12 03:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 120249
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number 51
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
800 PM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018

...RAINBANDS FROM SERGIO NEARING BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 115.4W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM W OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SW OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to
Cabo San Lazaro
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Mulege to
Bahia San Juan Bautista

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Sergio.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was
located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 115.4 West. Sergio is
moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this track is
expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the
center of Sergio will be near the Pacific coast of Baja California
Sur early Friday and then move over mainland Mexico by Friday
evening.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening should begin overnight, but Sergio is
still forecast to reach the central Baja California peninsula as a
tropical storm, but weaken to a tropical depression before reaching
Sonora.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Sergio is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts
of 10 inches across the central peninsula of Baja California
and Sonora through Friday. This could lead to life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain.

Storm total accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6
inches, are expected across the southern Plains and Arkansas from
this weekend into Monday. This rainfall could cause life-
threatening flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
along the western coast of the Baja California peninsula by tonight,
and these conditions will spread to the east coast of the peninsula
tonight or early Friday. Gusty winds could reach the coast of
mainland Mexico late Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will affect much of the Baja
California peninsula for the next day or two, likely causing
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM PDT.
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-10-12 03:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 120249 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 51
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
0300 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO
CABO SAN LAZARO
... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM MULEGE TO
BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
SERGIO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 115.4W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 240SE 210SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 115.4W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 116.2W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 26.7N 113.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 29.6N 109.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 32.5N 105.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

2018-10-12 03:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 120249
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 51
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
0300 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO
CABO SAN LAZARO
* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM MULEGE TO
BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
SERGIO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 115.4W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 240SE 210SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 115.4W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 116.2W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 26.7N 113.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 29.6N 109.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 32.5N 105.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N 115.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-10-12 00:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 112333 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 50A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
500 PM PDT THU OCT 11 2018

...SERGIO APPROACHING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 116.0W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO
CABO SAN LAZARO
... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM MULEGE TO
BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
SERGIO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM PDT (0000 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 116.0 WEST. SERGIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH (37 KM/H), AND THIS TRACK IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE
CENTER OF SERGIO WILL BE NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

2018-10-12 00:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 112333
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sergio Intermediate Advisory Number 50A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
500 PM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018

...SERGIO APPROACHING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 116.0W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to
Cabo San Lazaro
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Mulege to
Bahia San Juan Bautista

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Sergio.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM PDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was
located near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 116.0 West. Sergio is
moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this track is
expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the
center of Sergio will be near the Pacific coast of Baja California
Sur tonight or early Friday and then move over mainland Mexico by
Friday evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening should begin overnight, but Sergio is
still forecast to reach the central Baja California peninsula as a
tropical storm.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Sergio is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts
of 10 inches across the central peninsula of Baja California
and Sonora through Friday. This could lead to life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain.

By this weekend, rainfall associated with Sergio will move into
portions of the Southern Plains and the Ozarks, with storm total
rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches and possible isolated maximum
amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding,
particularly in the Southern Plains.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
along the western coast of the Baja California peninsula by tonight
and these conditions will spread to the east coast of the peninsula
tonight or early Friday. These conditions could reach the coast of
mainland Mexico late Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the
Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-10-11 21:33

WTPZ41 KNHC 112037 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 50
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
200 PM PDT THU OCT 11 2018

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF SERGIO CONSISTS OF A LARGE AND VIGOROUS SWIRL
OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN A BAND IN
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. IN FACT, THE CLOUD PATTERN ON SATELLITE
RESEMBLES A CYCLONE THAT HAS BEGUN TO ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS. CONVECTION HAS DECREASED, AND DVORAK NUMBERS NOW
SUPPORT A LOWER INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT. SERGIO'S CIRCULATION IS
ALREADY OVER COOLER WATERS AND THE SHEAR IS INCREASING, SO WEAKENING
SHOULD CONTINUE FROM NOW ON. SERGIO, HOWEVER, IS EXPECTED TO STILL
BE A TROPICAL STORM WHEN IT MOVES OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
ON FRIDAY. THEREAFTER, IT SHOULD WEAKEN FASTER WHILE INTERACTS WITH
THE HIGH TERRAIN AND THEN REACH THE STATE OF SONORA AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FOLLOWED BY DISSIPATION.

SERGIO HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 20 KT. SINCE THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE, THE GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE
UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 36 HOURS OS SO. TRACK MODELS CONTINUE TO
BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT, AND UNANIMOUSLY BRING THE CORE OF SERGIO
OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN A
LITTLE MORE THAN 12 HOURS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE PRIMARY THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH SERGIO AND ITS REMNANTS CONTINUES
TO BE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WITHIN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN THE MEXICO STATES OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR,
SONORA, THE U.S. SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND THE OZARKS THROUGH THE

2018-10-11 21:33

WTPZ41 KNHC 112037
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 50
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
200 PM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018

The cloud pattern of Sergio consists of a large and vigorous swirl
of low clouds with a few patches of deep convection within a band in
the northern semicircle. In fact, the cloud pattern on satellite
resembles a cyclone that has begun to acquire extratropical
characteristics. Convection has decreased, and Dvorak numbers now
support a lower initial intensity of 50 kt. Sergio's circulation is
already over cooler waters and the shear is increasing, so weakening
should continue from now on. Sergio, however, is expected to still
be a tropical storm when it moves over the Baja California peninsula
on Friday. Thereafter, it should weaken faster while interacts with
the high terrain and then reach the state of Sonora as a tropical
depression followed by dissipation.

Sergio has increased its forward speed and is now moving toward
the northeast at about 20 kt. Since the steering currents are
not expected to change, the general motion should continue
until dissipation in about 36 hours os so. Track models continue to
be in excellent agreement, and unanimously bring the core of Sergio
over the central portion of the Baja California peninsula in a
little more than 12 hours and so does the official forecast.

The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues
to be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within
mountainous terrain in the Mexico states of Baja California Sur,
Sonora, the U.S. Southern Plains, and the Ozarks through the
weekend. For more information about this potential hazard, see
products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather
forecast office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 23.5N 116.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 25.5N 114.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 28.5N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 13/0600Z 31.0N 107.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-10-11 21:33

WTPZ31 KNHC 112036 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 50
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
200 PM PDT THU OCT 11 2018

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN IN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 116.7W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO
CABO SAN LAZARO
... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM MULEGE TO
BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
SERGIO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 116.7 WEST. SERGIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH (37 KM/H) AND THIS TRACK
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE

2018-10-11 21:33

WTPZ31 KNHC 112036
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number 50
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
200 PM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN IN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 116.7W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to
Cabo San Lazaro
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Mulege to
Bahia San Juan Bautista.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within the
next 12 to 18 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Sergio.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was
located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 116.7 West. Sergio is
moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h) and this track
is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the
center of Sergio will be near the Pacific coast of Baja California
Sur tonight or early Friday and then move over mainland Mexico by
Friday evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
No significant change in strength is forecast this afternoon, but
Sergio is over cooler waters and gradual weakening is anticipated.
Sergio is still forecast to reach the central Baja California
peninsula as a tropical storm.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Sergio is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts
of 10 inches across the central peninsula of Baja California
and Sonora through Friday. This could lead to life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain.

By this weekend, rainfall associated with Sergio will move into
portions of the Southern Plains and the Ozarks, with storm total
rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches and possible isolated maximum
amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding,
particularly in the Southern Plains.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
along the western coast of the Baja California peninsula by tonight
and these conditions will spread to the east coast of the peninsula
tonight or early Friday. These conditions could reach the coast of
mainland Mexico late Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the
Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM PDT.
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-10-11 21:33

WTPZ21 KNHC 112035 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 50
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
2100 UTC THU OCT 11 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO
CABO SAN LAZARO
... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM MULEGE TO
BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
SERGIO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 116.7W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 240SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 116.7W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 117.5W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 25.5N 114.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 28.5N 110.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 31.0N 107.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

2018-10-11 21:33

WTPZ21 KNHC 112035
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 50
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
2100 UTC THU OCT 11 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO
CABO SAN LAZARO
* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM MULEGE TO
BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
SERGIO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 116.7W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 240SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 116.7W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 117.5W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 25.5N 114.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 28.5N 110.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 31.0N 107.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 116.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-10-11 18:33

WTPZ31 KNHC 111735 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 49A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
1100 AM PDT THU OCT 11 2018

...SERGIO EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 117.6W
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO
CABO SAN LAZARO
... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM MULEGE TO
BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
SERGIO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 118.7 WEST. SERGIO
HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH (37 KM/H). THIS TRACK WITH A CONTINUED

2018-10-11 18:33

WTPZ31 KNHC 111735
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sergio Intermediate Advisory Number 49A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
1100 AM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018

...SERGIO EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 117.6W
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to
Cabo San Lazaro
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Mulege to
Bahia San Juan Bautista.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within the
next 12 to 18 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Sergio.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM PDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was
located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 118.7 West. Sergio
has increased its forward speed and is now moving toward the
northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h). This track with a continued
increase in forward speed is expected during the next day or
so. On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will be
near the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur tonight or
early Friday and then move over mainland Mexico by Friday evening.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast this afternoon, but
Sergio will soon be over cooler water and gradual weakening should
then begin. Sergio is still forecast to reach the central Baja
California peninsula as a tropical storm.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Sergio is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts
of 10 inches across the central peninsula of Baja California
and Sonora through Friday. This could lead to life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain.

By this weekend, rainfall associated with Sergio will move into
portions of the Southern Plains and the Ozarks, with storm total
rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches and possible isolated maximum
amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding,
particularly in the Southern Plains.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
along the western coast of the Baja California peninsula by tonight
and will spread to the east coast of the peninsula tonight or early
Friday. These conditions could reach the coast of mainland Mexico
late Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the
Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-10-11 16:34

WTNT82 EGRR 111556

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 11.10.2018

HURRICANE LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 28.8N 39.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.10.2018 0 28.8N 39.5W 970 61
0000UTC 12.10.2018 12 30.3N 35.9W 959 68
1200UTC 12.10.2018 24 32.0N 30.7W 962 68
0000UTC 13.10.2018 36 33.0N 24.2W 964 73
1200UTC 13.10.2018 48 33.6N 19.0W 974 63
0000UTC 14.10.2018 60 32.5N 17.1W 994 44
1200UTC 14.10.2018 72 31.3N 17.2W 1004 33
0000UTC 15.10.2018 84 30.3N 17.8W 1007 34
1200UTC 15.10.2018 96 29.2N 19.5W 1011 25
0000UTC 16.10.2018 108 28.5N 21.0W 1014 24
1200UTC 16.10.2018 120 28.5N 22.5W 1017 21
0000UTC 17.10.2018 132 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL ANALYSED POSITION : 34.0N 81.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.10.2018 0 34.0N 81.6W 986 38
0000UTC 12.10.2018 12 36.4N 77.5W 986 43
1200UTC 12.10.2018 24 39.1N 71.3W 979 52
0000UTC 13.10.2018 36 42.2N 61.6W 970 58
1200UTC 13.10.2018 48 44.9N 48.7W 979 53
0000UTC 14.10.2018 60 46.4N 34.0W 988 46
1200UTC 14.10.2018 72 46.5N 23.3W 996 39
0000UTC 15.10.2018 84 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM NADINE ANALYSED POSITION : 14.0N 33.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.10.2018 0 14.0N 33.5W 997 53
0000UTC 12.10.2018 12 14.2N 34.9W 1003 39
1200UTC 12.10.2018 24 14.5N 36.1W 1007 33
0000UTC 13.10.2018 36 14.8N 37.8W 1009 33
1200UTC 13.10.2018 48 15.0N 40.8W 1012 32
0000UTC 14.10.2018 60 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 20.9N 119.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.10.2018 0 20.9N 119.7W 977 57
0000UTC 12.10.2018 12 23.3N 116.5W 980 56
1200UTC 12.10.2018 24 25.6N 113.2W 982 56
0000UTC 13.10.2018 36 28.1N 109.9W 996 32
1200UTC 13.10.2018 48 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 12.4N 136.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.10.2018 144 12.4N 136.8W 1007 22

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 14.5N 93.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.10.2018 144 14.5N 93.7W 1005 41


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 111556

2018-10-11 16:34

WTNT80 EGRR 111556

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 11.10.2018

HURRICANE LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 28.8N 39.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 11.10.2018 28.8N 39.5W STRONG
00UTC 12.10.2018 30.3N 35.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.10.2018 32.0N 30.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.10.2018 33.0N 24.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.10.2018 33.6N 19.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.10.2018 32.5N 17.1W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 14.10.2018 31.3N 17.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 15.10.2018 30.3N 17.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.10.2018 29.2N 19.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.10.2018 28.5N 21.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.10.2018 28.5N 22.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL ANALYSED POSITION : 34.0N 81.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 11.10.2018 34.0N 81.6W MODERATE
00UTC 12.10.2018 36.4N 77.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.10.2018 39.1N 71.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.10.2018 42.2N 61.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.10.2018 44.9N 48.7W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.10.2018 46.4N 34.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 14.10.2018 46.5N 23.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 15.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM NADINE ANALYSED POSITION : 14.0N 33.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 11.10.2018 14.0N 33.5W MODERATE
00UTC 12.10.2018 14.2N 34.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.10.2018 14.5N 36.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.10.2018 14.8N 37.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.10.2018 15.0N 40.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 20.9N 119.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 11.10.2018 20.9N 119.7W STRONG
00UTC 12.10.2018 23.3N 116.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.10.2018 25.6N 113.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.10.2018 28.1N 109.9W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 13.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 12.4N 136.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.10.2018 12.4N 136.8W WEAK

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 14.5N 93.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.10.2018 14.5N 93.7W WEAK


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 111556

2018-10-11 15:36

WTPZ41 KNHC 111439 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 49
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
800 AM PDT THU OCT 11 2018

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF SERGIO CONTINUES TO SHOW ORGANIZATION WITH A
COUPLE OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED HOOKING BANDS, HOWEVER THE CONVECTION
IN THESE BANDS IS WEAK TO MODERATE. DVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT
THE INITIAL INTENSITY STILL IS 55 KT. SERGIO IS ABOUT TO MOVE OVER
COOLER WATERS AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY,
SO THE EXPECTED WEAKENING PROCESS SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY.
NEVERTHELESS, THE CYCLONE SHOULD STILL BE A TROPICAL STORM WHEN IT
MOVES OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, BUT IT SHOULD DISSIPATE
ONCE IT MOVES OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE MEXICAN MAINLAND OVER THE
STATE OF SONORA.

SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT SERGIO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
ABOUT 17 KT. THE STORM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
LOCATED JUST OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO STEER SERGIO TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. TRACK MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AND
UNANIMOUSLY BRING SERGIO OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.

THE PRIMARY THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH SERGIO AND ITS REMNANTS CONTINUES
TO BE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WITHIN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN THE MEXICO STATES OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR,
SONORA, THE U.S. SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND THE OZARKS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS POTENTIAL HAZARD, SEE
PRODUCTS FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER AND YOUR LOCAL WEATHER

2018-10-11 15:36

WTPZ41 KNHC 111439
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 49
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
800 AM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018

The cloud pattern of Sergio continues to show organization with a
couple of cyclonically curved hooking bands, however the convection
in these bands is weak to moderate. Dvorak estimates suggest that
the initial intensity still is 55 kt. Sergio is about to move over
cooler waters and the shear is forecast to increase significantly,
so the expected weakening process should begin later today.
Nevertheless, the cyclone should still be a tropical storm when it
moves over the Baja California peninsula, but it should dissipate
once it moves over the high terrain of the Mexican mainland over the
state of Sonora.

Satellite fixes indicate that Sergio is moving toward the northeast
about 17 kt. The storm is embedded within the deep-layer
southwesterly flow associated with a broad mid-latitude trough
located just off the U.S. west coast. This flow pattern will
continue to steer Sergio toward the northeast with an increase in
forward speed. Track models are in excellent agreement and
unanimously bring Sergio over the central portion of the Baja
California peninsula in about 24 hours and so does the official
forecast.

The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues
to be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within
mountainous terrain in the Mexico states of Baja California Sur,
Sonora, the U.S. Southern Plains, and the Ozarks through the
weekend. For more information about this potential hazard, see
products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather
forecast office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 22.2N 118.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 24.2N 116.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 27.0N 113.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 29.5N 109.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-10-11 15:36

WTPZ31 KNHC 111439 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 49
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
800 AM PDT THU OCT 11 2018

...SERGIO HEADING FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN A HURRY...
HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 118.7W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM MULEGE TO
BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA AND HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH SOUTH OF MULEGE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO
CABO SAN LAZARO
... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM MULEGE TO
BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
SERGIO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

2018-10-11 15:36

WTPZ31 KNHC 111439
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number 49
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
800 AM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018

...SERGIO HEADING FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN A HURRY...
HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 118.7W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the east coast of the Baja California peninsula from Mulege to
Bahia San Juan Bautista and has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Watch south of Mulege.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to
Cabo San Lazaro
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Mulege to
Bahia San Juan Bautista.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Sergio.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was
located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 118.7 West. Sergio is
moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). This track with a
continued increase in forward speed is expected during the next
couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will
approach the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur early Friday and
then move over mainland Mexico by Friday evening.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through today, but
Sergio will soon be over cooler water and gradual weakening should
then begin. Sergio is still forecast to reach the central Baja
California peninsula as a tropical storm.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Sergio is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts
of 10 inches across the central peninsula of Baja California
and Sonora through Friday. This could lead to life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain.

By this weekend, rainfall associated with Sergio will move into
portions of the Southern Plains and the Ozarks, with storm total
rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches and possible isolated maximum
amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding,
particularly in the Southern Plains.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
along the western coast of the Baja California peninsula by tonight
and will spread to the east coast of the peninsula tonight or early
Friday. These conditions could reach the coast of mainland Mexico
late Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the
Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 AM PDT.
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-10-11 15:36

WTPZ21 KNHC 111438 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 49
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
1500 UTC THU OCT 11 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM MULEGE TO
BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA AND HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH SOUTH OF MULEGE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO
CABO SAN LAZARO
... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM MULEGE TO
BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
SERGIO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 118.7W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 270SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 118.7W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 119.4W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.2N 116.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

2018-10-11 15:36

WTPZ21 KNHC 111438
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 49
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
1500 UTC THU OCT 11 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM MULEGE TO
BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA AND HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH SOUTH OF MULEGE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO
CABO SAN LAZARO
* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM MULEGE TO
BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
SERGIO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 118.7W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 270SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 118.7W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 119.4W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.2N 116.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 27.0N 113.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 29.5N 109.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N 118.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-10-11 12:34

WTPZ31 KNHC 111144 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 48A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
500 AM PDT THU OCT 11 2018

...SERGIO HEADING FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
..............HEAVY RAINS ANTICIPATED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND
THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 119.3W
ABOUT 600 MI...970 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
............ WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA
EUGENIA
TO
CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
............ EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA
SAN
JUAN
BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
SERGIO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM PDT (1200 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS

2018-10-11 12:34

WTPZ31 KNHC 111144
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sergio Intermediate Advisory Number 48A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
500 AM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018

...SERGIO HEADING FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...HEAVY RAINS ANTICIPATED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 119.3W
ABOUT 600 MI...970 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to
Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia San Juan
Bautista to San Evaristo

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Sergio.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM PDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was
located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 119.3 West. Sergio is
moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). A northeastward
motion with a continued increase in forward speed is expected during
the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of
Sergio will approach the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur early
Friday and then reach mainland Mexico by Friday evening.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through today, but
Sergio will soon be over cooler water and gradual weakening should
then begin. Sergio is still forecast to reach the central Baja
California peninsula as a tropical storm.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Sergio is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts
of 10 inches across the central peninsula of Baja California
and Sonora through Friday. This could lead to life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain.

By this weekend, rainfall associated with Sergio will move into
portions of the Southern Plains and the Ozarks, with storm total
rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches and possible isolated maximum
amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding,
particularly in the Southern Plains.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
by tonight. Tropical storm conditions could begin in the watch
area tonight or early Friday. These winds could reach the coast of
mainland Mexico by late Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the
Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-10-11 09:33

WTPZ41 KNHC 110837 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 48
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
200 AM PDT THU OCT 11 2018

SERGIO'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS, AND THE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
SAB HAVEN'T CHANGED EITHER. A PARTIAL ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASS
REVEALED NUMEROUS 45-KT WINDS AND A 50-KT NORTHERLY WIND IN THE
COLDEST CLOUD TOPS OF THE CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. BASED ON THESE DATA, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED. A COMBINATION
OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR, A DRIER AND MORE STABLE
SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT, AND SLIGHTLY COOLER OCEANIC TEMPERATURES
SHOULD INFLUENCE SOME WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN MEXICO STATE
OF SONORA EARLY SATURDAY. AFTERWARD, RAPID WEAKENING, AND
ULTIMATELY DISSIPATION, IS EXPECTED AFTER SERGIO MAKES ITS SECOND
LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF THE MAINLAND MEXICO. A 72 HOUR
POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW POINT IS MAINTAINED TO SIMPLY REPRESENT
THE INLAND MOTION OF SERGIO. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ONCE
AGAIN BASED ON THE NOAA-HCCA, AND THE GFS/ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS, WHICH
SHOW SERGIO MAKING LANDFALL FRIDAY AS A TROPICAL STORM.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTHEASTWARD, OR 050/15
KT, WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PRODUCED BY A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH STRETCHING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. SERGIO SHOULD CONTINUE

2018-10-11 09:33

WTPZ41 KNHC 110837
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 48
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
200 AM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018

Sergio's cloud pattern has changed little during the past several
hours, and the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB haven't changed either. A partial ASCAT-B scatterometer pass
revealed numerous 45-kt winds and a 50-kt northerly wind in the
coldest cloud tops of the curved band wrapping around the north
portion of the circulation. Based on these data, the initial
intensity is held at 55 kt for this advisory.

The intensity forecast philosophy remains unchanged. A combination
of increasing southwesterly shear, a drier and more stable
surrounding environment, and slightly cooler oceanic temperatures
should influence some weakening as it approaches the Baja California
peninsula. The cyclone is expected to move inland over
Baja California Sur on Friday and into the northwestern Mexico state
of Sonora early Saturday. Afterward, rapid weakening, and
ultimately dissipation, is expected after Sergio makes its second
landfall along the coast of the mainland Mexico. A 72 hour
post-tropical/remnant low point is maintained to simply represent
the inland motion of Sergio. The intensity forecast is once
again based on the NOAA-HCCA, and the GFS/ECMWF global models, which
show Sergio making landfall Friday as a tropical storm.

The initial motion is estimated to be northeastward, or 050/15
kt, within the deep-layer southwesterly flow produced by a
mid-latitude trough stretching southwestward over the eastern
Pacific from the southwestern United States. Sergio should continue
moving in this general motion through the entire 72 hour period with
a continued increase in forward speed. Sergio will be approaching
the central Baja California peninsula Friday, although the
tropical-storm-force winds are likely to arrive Thursday night.
The NHC forecast lies in the middle of the tightly clustered
guidance and is close to the multi-model consensus aids.

The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues
to be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within
mountainous terrain in the Mexico states of Baja California Sur,
Sonora, the U.S. Southern Plains, and the Ozarks through the
weekend. For more information about this potential hazard, see
products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather
forecast office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 21.0N 120.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 23.0N 117.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 25.7N 114.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 28.4N 111.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 13/0600Z 31.0N 107.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 14/0600Z 35.3N 96.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-10-11 09:33

WTPZ31 KNHC 110836 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 48
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
200 AM PDT THU OCT 11 2018

...SERGIO QUICKLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...EXPECTED TO CAUSE HEAVY
RAINS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE
UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 120.2W
ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO
CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
SERGIO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS

2018-10-11 09:33

WTPZ31 KNHC 110836
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number 48
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
200 AM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018

...SERGIO QUICKLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...EXPECTED TO CAUSE HEAVY
RAINS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE
UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 120.2W
ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to
Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia San Juan
Bautista to San Evaristo

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Sergio.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was
located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 120.2 West. Sergio is
moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). A northeastward
motion with a continued increase in forward speed is expected during
the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will
approach the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur early Friday and
then reach mainland Mexico by Friday evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through today, but
gradual weakening is anticipated during the next few days.
Sergio is still forecast to reach the central Baja California
peninsula as a tropical storm.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Sergio is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts
of 10 inches across the central peninsula of Baja California
and Sonora through Friday. This could lead to life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain.

By this weekend, rainfall associated with Sergio will move into
portions of the Southern Plains and the Ozarks, with storm total
rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches and possible isolated maximum
amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding,
particularly in the Southern Plains.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
by tonight. Tropical storm conditions could begin in the watch
area tonight or early Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the
Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 AM PDT.
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-10-11 09:33

WTPZ21 KNHC 110836 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 48
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
0900 UTC THU OCT 11 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO
CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
SERGIO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 120.2W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 270SE 270SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 120.2W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 120.8W

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.0N 117.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 25.7N 114.8W

2018-10-11 09:33

WTPZ21 KNHC 110836
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 48
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
0900 UTC THU OCT 11 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO
CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
SERGIO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 120.2W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 270SE 270SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 120.2W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 120.8W

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.0N 117.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 25.7N 114.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 28.4N 111.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 90SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 31.0N 107.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 35.3N 96.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 120.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

2018-10-11 06:35

WTPZ31 KNHC 110531 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 47A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
1100 PM PDT WED OCT 10 2018

...SERGIO EXPECTED TO CAUSE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 120.9W
ABOUT 725 MI...1165 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO
CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
SERGIO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM PDT (0600 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS

2018-10-11 06:35

WTPZ31 KNHC 110531
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sergio Intermediate Advisory Number 47A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
1100 PM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...SERGIO EXPECTED TO CAUSE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 120.9W
ABOUT 725 MI...1165 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to
Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia San Juan
Bautista to San Evaristo

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Sergio.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM PDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was
located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 120.9 West. Sergio is
moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A northeastward
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next
few days. On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will approach
the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur early Friday and then reach
mainland Mexico late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through Thursday, but
gradual weakening is anticipated during the next several days.
Sergio is forecast to reach the central Baja California peninsula as
a tropical storm.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Sergio is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with local amounts of 10 inches
across the central peninsula of Baja California and Sonora through
Friday. This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides within mountainous terrain.

By this weekend, rainfall associated with Sergio will move into
portions of the Southern Plains and the Ozarks, with storm total
rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of
6 inches possible.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions could begin within the watch areas
Thursday night.

SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the
Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-10-11 04:35

WTNT82 EGRR 110356

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 11.10.2018

HURRICANE LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 27.7N 41.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 11.10.2018 0 27.7N 41.7W 974 59
1200UTC 11.10.2018 12 28.6N 39.8W 969 65
0000UTC 12.10.2018 24 30.0N 36.4W 963 66
1200UTC 12.10.2018 36 31.6N 31.6W 967 63
0000UTC 13.10.2018 48 32.5N 25.6W 971 65
1200UTC 13.10.2018 60 32.6N 21.1W 980 57
0000UTC 14.10.2018 72 31.4N 20.1W 994 41
1200UTC 14.10.2018 84 30.2N 20.9W 1002 36
0000UTC 15.10.2018 96 28.8N 22.5W 1005 31
1200UTC 15.10.2018 108 27.8N 24.9W 1007 30
0000UTC 16.10.2018 120 27.8N 27.8W 1007 32
1200UTC 16.10.2018 132 28.3N 30.5W 1002 37
0000UTC 17.10.2018 144 28.6N 32.3W 1000 40

HURRICANE MICHAEL ANALYSED POSITION : 31.4N 84.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 11.10.2018 0 31.4N 84.6W 968 44
1200UTC 11.10.2018 12 34.1N 81.5W 980 40
0000UTC 12.10.2018 24 36.4N 77.1W 983 44
1200UTC 12.10.2018 36 39.1N 71.3W 977 53
0000UTC 13.10.2018 48 42.2N 61.9W 969 63
1200UTC 13.10.2018 60 45.0N 49.4W 975 57
0000UTC 14.10.2018 72 46.6N 34.9W 984 48
1200UTC 14.10.2018 84 46.6N 22.8W 991 46
0000UTC 15.10.2018 96 46.7N 15.4W 1000 34
1200UTC 15.10.2018 108 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM NADINE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.3N 32.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 11.10.2018 0 13.3N 32.6W 1000 50
1200UTC 11.10.2018 12 13.5N 33.7W 1006 37
0000UTC 12.10.2018 24 14.2N 34.9W 1009 33
1200UTC 12.10.2018 36 14.6N 36.3W 1011 27
0000UTC 13.10.2018 48 14.7N 38.2W 1012 29
1200UTC 13.10.2018 60 15.2N 41.1W 1013 27
0000UTC 14.10.2018 72 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 19.1N 122.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 11.10.2018 0 19.1N 122.4W 970 60
1200UTC 11.10.2018 12 21.1N 119.5W 969 64
0000UTC 12.10.2018 24 23.6N 116.7W 974 60
1200UTC 12.10.2018 36 25.8N 113.4W 985 52
0000UTC 13.10.2018 48 28.4N 110.2W 997 28
1200UTC 13.10.2018 60 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 110356

2018-10-11 04:35

WTNT80 EGRR 110356

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 11.10.2018

HURRICANE LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 27.7N 41.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 11.10.2018 27.7N 41.7W STRONG
12UTC 11.10.2018 28.6N 39.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.10.2018 30.0N 36.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.10.2018 31.6N 31.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.10.2018 32.5N 25.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.10.2018 32.6N 21.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.10.2018 31.4N 20.1W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 14.10.2018 30.2N 20.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 15.10.2018 28.8N 22.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.10.2018 27.8N 24.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.10.2018 27.8N 27.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.10.2018 28.3N 30.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.10.2018 28.6N 32.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

HURRICANE MICHAEL ANALYSED POSITION : 31.4N 84.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 11.10.2018 31.4N 84.6W STRONG
12UTC 11.10.2018 34.1N 81.5W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 12.10.2018 36.4N 77.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.10.2018 39.1N 71.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.10.2018 42.2N 61.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.10.2018 45.0N 49.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.10.2018 46.6N 34.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 14.10.2018 46.6N 22.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 15.10.2018 46.7N 15.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM NADINE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.3N 32.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 11.10.2018 13.3N 32.6W MODERATE
12UTC 11.10.2018 13.5N 33.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.10.2018 14.2N 34.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.10.2018 14.6N 36.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.10.2018 14.7N 38.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.10.2018 15.2N 41.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 19.1N 122.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 11.10.2018 19.1N 122.4W STRONG
12UTC 11.10.2018 21.1N 119.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.10.2018 23.6N 116.7W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.10.2018 25.8N 113.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.10.2018 28.4N 110.2W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 13.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 110356

2018-10-11 03:41

WTPZ41 KNHC 110241 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 47
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
800 PM PDT WED OCT 10 2018

THIS EVENING'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION DEPICTS A RATHER RAGGED AND
ELONGATED BANDING EYE-LIKE FEATURE WITH FRAGMENTED CURVED BANDS
ENCIRCLING THE PERIPHERY OF CYCLONE. THE SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB, HOWEVER, STILL YIELD AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 55 KT.

THE UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE WESTERLY SHEAR HAS
INCREASED TO 15-20 KT, AND THE DECAY-SHIPS AS WELL AS THE GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR MAGNITUDE WILL INCREASE FURTHER TO
NEAR 50 KT PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THIS INHIBITING UPPER WIND PATTERN
ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER OCEANIC TEMPERATURES SHOULD INFLUENCE
SOME FURTHER WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. SERGIO IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN MEXICO STATE OF SONORA EARLY
SATURDAY AS A DEPRESSION. AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, SERGIO
IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER DEGENERATE INTO A POST-TROPICAL WEAK LOW OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
THE NOAA-HCCA, AND THE GFS/ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS WHICH SHOW SERGIO
MAKING LANDFALL FRIDAY AS A TROPICAL STORM.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTHEASTWARD, OR 050/14 KT,
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE 72 HOUR
PERIOD WITH A CONTINUED INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. SERGIO WILL BE
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH
THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS CONTINUED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK AS THE

2018-10-11 03:41

WTPZ41 KNHC 110241
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
800 PM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018

This evening's satellite presentation depicts a rather ragged and
elongated banding eye-like feature with fragmented curved bands
encircling the periphery of cyclone. The subjective intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB, however, still yield an initial
intensity of 55 kt.

The UW-CIMSS shear analysis shows that the westerly shear has
increased to 15-20 kt, and the Decay-SHIPS as well as the global
models indicate that the shear magnitude will increase further to
near 50 kt prior to landfall. This inhibiting upper wind pattern
along with slightly cooler oceanic temperatures should influence
some further weakening as it approaches the Baja California
peninsula. Sergio is forecast to move inland over Baja California
Sur on Friday and into the northwestern Mexico state of Sonora early
Saturday as a depression. At the end of the forecast period, Sergio
is expected to further degenerate into a post-tropical weak low over
the southwestern United States. The intensity forecast is based on
the NOAA-HCCA, and the GFS/ECMWF global models which show Sergio
making landfall Friday as a tropical storm.

The initial motion is estimated to be northeastward, or 050/14 kt,
and this general motion is forecast through the entire 72 hour
period with a continued increase in forward speed. Sergio will be
approaching the central Baja California peninsula Friday, although
the tropical-storm-force winds are likely to arrive Thursday night.
There is continued high confidence in the forecast track as the
available large-scale and hurricane models are clustered tightly
together through 72 hours. The NHC forecast lies in the middle of
the guidance cluster and is close to the TVCN/HCCA consensus models.

The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues
to be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within
mountainous terrain in the Mexico states of Baja California Sur,
Sonora, the U.S. Southern Plains, and the Ozarks through the
weekend. For more information about this potential hazard, see
products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather
forecast office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 20.0N 121.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 21.8N 119.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 24.4N 116.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 27.2N 113.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 13/0000Z 30.0N 109.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 14/0000Z 34.4N 98.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-10-11 03:41

WTPZ31 KNHC 110240 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 47
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
800 PM PDT WED OCT 10 2018

...SERGIO ACCELERATING TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...HEAVY RAINS
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE
UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 121.5W
ABOUT 770 MI...1240 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA
EUGENIA TO CABO SAN LAZARO TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO
CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
SERGIO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR

2018-10-11 03:41

WTPZ31 KNHC 110240
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number 47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
800 PM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...SERGIO ACCELERATING TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...HEAVY RAINS
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE
UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 121.5W
ABOUT 770 MI...1240 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch
along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta
Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to
Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia San Juan
Bautista to San Evaristo

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Sergio.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was
located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 121.5 West. Sergio is
moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A northeastward
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next
few days. On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will approach
the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur early Friday and then reach
mainland Mexico late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through today, but
gradual weakening is anticipated during the next several days.
Sergio is forecast to reach the Baja California peninsula as a
tropical storm.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Sergio is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with local amounts of 10 inches
across the central peninsula of Baja California and Sonora through
Friday. This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides within mountainous terrain.

By this weekend, rainfall associated with Sergio will move into
portions of the Southern Plains and the Ozarks, with storm total
rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of
6 inches possible

WIND: Tropical storm conditions could begin within the watch areas
Thursday night.

SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the
Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM PDT.
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-10-11 03:41

WTPZ21 KNHC 110239 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 47
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
0300 UTC THU OCT 11 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA
EUGENIA TO CABO SAN LAZARO TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO
CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
SERGIO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 121.5W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 270SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 121.5W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 122.0W

2018-10-11 03:41

WTPZ21 KNHC 110239
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 47
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
0300 UTC THU OCT 11 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA
EUGENIA TO CABO SAN LAZARO TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO
CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
SERGIO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 121.5W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 270SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 121.5W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 122.0W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.8N 119.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.4N 116.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 27.2N 113.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 30.0N 109.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 34.4N 98.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 121.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

2018-10-11 00:34

WTPZ31 KNHC 102351 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 46A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
500 PM PDT WED OCT 10 2018

...SERGIO HEADED TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 122.1W
ABOUT 815 MI...1315 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO
CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
SERGIO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF
THE WATCH AREA LATER TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM PDT (0000 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 122.1 WEST. SERGIO IS

2018-10-11 00:34

WTPZ31 KNHC 102351
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sergio Intermediate Advisory Number 46A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
500 PM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...SERGIO HEADED TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 122.1W
ABOUT 815 MI...1315 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to
Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia San Juan
Bautista to San Evaristo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Sergio. A tropical storm warning may be required for a portion of
the watch area later tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM PDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was
located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 122.1 West. Sergio is
moving toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A northeastward
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next
few days. On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will approach
the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur early Friday and then reach
mainland Mexico late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely tonight and
Thursday, but gradual weakening is anticipated during the next
several days. Sergio is forecast to reach the Baja California
peninsula as a tropical storm.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Sergio is expected to produce total storm rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with local amounts of 10 inches
across the central portion of the Baja California peninsula and
Sonora. This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides within mountainous terrain.

By this weekend, rainfall associated with Sergio will move into
portions of the Southern Plains and the Ozarks of the United
States. Storm total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected,
with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions could begin within the watch areas
by Thursday night.

SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the
Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-10-10 21:38

WTPZ41 KNHC 102040 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 46
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
200 PM PDT WED OCT 10 2018

THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS REMAINED UNCHANGED DURING
THE DAY, EXCEPT THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN.
NEVERTHELESS, DVORAK NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB STILL SUPPORT AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS WHILE THE CYCLONE IS OVER RELATIVELY
WARM WATERS AND IS EMBEDDED IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. SINCE BOTH
OF THESE FACTORS WILL BECOME UNFAVORABLE IN ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS,
THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING. SERGIO, HOWEVER, IS EXPECTED
TO STILL BE A TROPICAL STORM BY THE TIME IT APPROACHES THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AFTER THAT TIME, SERGIO WILL MOVE OVER
MAINLAND MEXICO AND WEAKEN MUCH FASTER.

SERGIO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 050 DEGREES AT 12 KT. THE
CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, AND THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO STEER SERGIO TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER OF A WEAKENED
SERGIO OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN
ABOUT A DAY AND HALF, BUT WINDS WILL REACH THE COAST A LITTLE BIT
EARLIER. TRACK MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT, AND
CONSEQUENTLY THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS QUITE TIGHT. THE NHC FORECAST
REMAINS UNCHANGED AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE PRIMARY THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH SERGIO AND ITS REMNANTS CONTINUES
TO BE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WITHIN

2018-10-10 21:38

WTPZ41 KNHC 102040
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
200 PM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018

The organization of the cloud pattern has remained unchanged during
the day, except that the deep convection has continued to weaken.
Nevertheless, Dvorak numbers from TAFB and SAB still support an
initial intensity of 55 kt. Some fluctuations in intensity are
likely during the next 12 hours while the cyclone is over relatively
warm waters and is embedded in a low shear environment. Since both
of these factors will become unfavorable in about 12 to 24 hours,
the NHC forecast calls for weakening. Sergio, however, is expected
to still be a tropical storm by the time it approaches the Baja
California peninsula. After that time, Sergio will move over
mainland Mexico and weaken much faster.

Sergio is moving toward the northeast or 050 degrees at 12 kt. The
cyclone is embedded within the southwesterly winds associated
with a large mid-latitude trough, and this flow pattern will
continue to steer Sergio toward the northeast with an increase in
forward speed. The forecast track brings the center of a weakened
Sergio over the central portion of the Baja California peninsula in
about a day and half, but winds will reach the coast a little bit
earlier. Track models continue to be in very good agreement, and
consequently the guidance envelope is quite tight. The NHC forecast
remains unchanged and is in the middle of the guidance envelope.

The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues
to be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within
mountainous terrain in the Mexico states of Baja California Sur,
Sonora, the U.S. Southern Plains, and the Ozarks through the
weekend. For more information about this potential hazard, see
products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather
forecast office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 19.2N 122.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 20.7N 120.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 23.3N 117.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 26.0N 114.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 29.0N 111.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 13/1800Z 33.0N 101.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-10-10 21:38

WTPZ31 KNHC 102040 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 46
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
200 PM PDT WED OCT 10 2018

...SERGIO FORECAST TO WEAKEN BUT HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 122.4W
ABOUT 845 MI...1360 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO
CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
SERGIO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF
THE WATCH AREA LATER TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 122.4 WEST. SERGIO IS

2018-10-10 21:38

WTPZ31 KNHC 102040
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number 46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
200 PM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...SERGIO FORECAST TO WEAKEN BUT HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 122.4W
ABOUT 845 MI...1360 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to
Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia San Juan
Bautista to San Evaristo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Sergio. A tropical storm warning may be required for a portion of
the watch area later tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was
located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 122.4 West. Sergio is
moving toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A northeastward
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next
few days. On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will approach
the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur early Friday and then reach
mainland Mexico late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely today and Thursday,
but gradual weakening is anticipated during the next several
days. Sergio is expected to reach the Baja California peninsula as
a tropical storm.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Sergio is expected to produce total storm rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with local amounts of 10 inches
across the central portion of the Baja California peninsula and
Sonora. This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides within mountainous terrain.

By this weekend, rainfall associated with Sergio will move into
portions of the Southern Plains and the Ozarks of the United
States. Storm total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected,
with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions could begin within the watch areas
by Thursday night.

SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the
Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM PDT.
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-10-10 21:38

WTPZ21 KNHC 102039 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 46
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
2100 UTC WED OCT 10 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO
CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
SERGIO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF
THE WATCH AREA LATER TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 122.4W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 240SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 122.4W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 123.1W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.7N 120.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.3N 117.7W

2018-10-10 21:38

WTPZ21 KNHC 102039
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 46
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
2100 UTC WED OCT 10 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO
CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
SERGIO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF
THE WATCH AREA LATER TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 122.4W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 240SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 122.4W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 123.1W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.7N 120.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.3N 117.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 26.0N 114.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 29.0N 111.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 140SE 100SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 33.0N 101.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 122.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-10-10 18:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 101733 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 45A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
1100 AM PDT WED OCT 10 2018

...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 123.0W
ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO
CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
SERGIO. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED ON
LATER TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 123.0 WEST. SERGIO IS

2018-10-10 18:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 101733
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sergio Intermediate Advisory Number 45A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
1100 AM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 123.0W
ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to
Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia San Juan
Bautista to San Evaristo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Sergio. Additional watches or warnings may be required on
later tonight or Thursday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM PDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was
located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 123.0 West. Sergio is
moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A northeastward
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next
few days. On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will approach
the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur early Friday and then reach
mainland Mexico late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely today, but gradual
weakening is forecast during the next several days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Sergio is expected to produce total storm rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with local amounts of 10 inches
across the central portion of the Baja California peninsula and
Sonora. This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides within mountainous terrain.

By this weekend, heavy rainfall associated with Sergio will move
into portions of the Southern Plains and the Ozarks of the United
States. Storm total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected,
with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.

SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the
Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-10-10 15:39

WTPZ41 KNHC 101445 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
800 AM PDT WED OCT 10 2018

THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH SERGIO HAS NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH,
AND IT CONSISTS OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND SURROUNDING
A LARGE AND RAGGED EYE FEATURE. SINCE THE CONVECTION IS WEAKER, THE
DVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT WINDS ARE GRADUALLY DECREASING, AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 55 KT. SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WHILE THE
CYCLONE IS STILL MOVING OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATERS AND IS EMBEDDED
IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS WILL BECOME
UNFAVORABLE SOON, AND CONSEQUENTLY, THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR
WEAKENING. SERGIO, HOWEVER, IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE A TROPICAL
STORM BY THE TIME IT APPROACHES THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AFTER
THAT TIME, SERGIO WILL MOVE OVER MAINLAND MEXICO AND WEAKEN MUCH
FASTER.

SERGIO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 055 DEGREES AT 11 KT. THE
CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, AND THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO STEER SERGIO TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER OF A WEAKENED
SERGIO OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN
ABOUT 2 DAYS, BUT WINDS ALONG THE COAST ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE
EARLIER. TRACK MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT, AND CONSEQUENTLY
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS QUITE TIGHT. THE NHC FORECAST IS NOT
DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.

THE PRIMARY THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH SERGIO AND ITS REMNANTS CONTINUES

2018-10-10 15:39

WTPZ41 KNHC 101445
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
800 AM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018

The cloud pattern associated with Sergio has not changed very much,
and it consists of a cyclonically curved convective band surrounding
a large and ragged eye feature. Since the convection is weaker, the
Dvorak estimates suggest that winds are gradually decreasing, and
the initial intensity has been lowered to 55 kt. Some fluctuations
in intensity are likely during the next 12 to 24 hours while the
cyclone is still moving over relatively warm waters and is embedded
in a low shear environment. Both of these factors will become
unfavorable soon, and consequently, the NHC forecast calls for
weakening. Sergio, however, is expected to still be a tropical
storm by the time it approaches the Baja California peninsula. After
that time, Sergio will move over mainland Mexico and weaken much
faster.

Sergio is moving toward the northeast or 055 degrees at 11 kt. The
cyclone is embedded within the southwesterly winds associated
with a large mid-latitude trough, and this flow pattern will
continue to steer Sergio toward the northeast with an increase in
forward speed. The forecast track brings the center of a weakened
Sergio over the central portion of the Baja California peninsula in
about 2 days, but winds along the coast are anticipated to increase
earlier. Track models are in very good agreement, and consequently
the guidance envelope is quite tight. The NHC forecast is not
different from the previous one and is in the middle of the guidance
envelope.

The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues
to be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within
mountainous terrain in the Mexico state of Sonora, the U.S. Southern
Plains, and the Ozarks through the weekend. For more information
about this potential hazard, see products from the Weather
Prediction Center and your local weather forecast office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 18.4N 123.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 19.7N 121.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 22.0N 119.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 24.5N 116.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 27.0N 113.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 31.5N 104.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-10-10 15:39

WTPZ31 KNHC 101444 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
800 AM PDT WED OCT 10 2018

...SERGIO HEADING FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...........HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHERN
PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 123.5W
ABOUT 930 MI...1500 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
......... WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA
EUGENIA
TO
CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
......... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN
JUAN
BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
SERGIO. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED ON THURSDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 123.5 WEST. SERGIO IS

2018-10-10 15:39

WTPZ31 KNHC 101444
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number 45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
800 AM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...SERGIO HEADING FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 123.5W
ABOUT 930 MI...1500 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to
Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia San Juan
Bautista to San Evaristo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Sergio. Additional watches or warnings may be required on Thursday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was
located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 123.5 West. Sergio is
moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A northeastward
motion with a further increase in forward speed is expected during
the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will
approach the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur early Friday and
then reach mainland Mexico late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Sergio is expected to produce total storm rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with local amounts of 10 inches
across the central portion of the Baja California peninsula and
Sonora. This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides within mountainous terrain.

By this weekend, heavy rainfall associated with Sergio will move
into portions of the Southern Plains and the Ozarks of the United
States. Storm total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected,
with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.

SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the
Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 AM PDT.
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-10-10 15:39

WTPZ21 KNHC 101444 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
1500 UTC WED OCT 10 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO
CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
SERGIO. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED ON THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 123.5W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 300SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 123.5W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 124.0W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.7N 121.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 22.0N 119.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

2018-10-10 15:39

WTPZ21 KNHC 101444
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
1500 UTC WED OCT 10 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO
CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
SERGIO. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED ON THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 123.5W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 300SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 123.5W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 124.0W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.7N 121.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 22.0N 119.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.5N 116.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 27.0N 113.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 140SE 100SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 31.5N 104.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 123.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-10-10 12:33

WTPZ31 KNHC 101131 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 44A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
500 AM PDT WED OCT 10 2018

...FLOODING RAINS FROM SERGIO EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 124.1W
ABOUT 990 MI...1590 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO
CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
SERGIO. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED ON THURSDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM PDT (1200 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 124.1 WEST. SERGIO IS

2018-10-10 12:33

WTPZ31 KNHC 101131
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sergio Intermediate Advisory Number 44A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
500 AM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...FLOODING RAINS FROM SERGIO EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 124.1W
ABOUT 990 MI...1590 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to
Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia San Juan
Bautista to San Evaristo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Sergio. Additional watches or warnings may be required on Thursday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM PDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was
located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 124.1 West. Sergio is
moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). An east-
northeastward to northeastward motion with a further increase in
forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast
track, the center of Sergio will approach the Pacific coast of Baja
California Sur early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Through Sunday, heavy rainfall with Sergio is expected to
lead to storm total accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with local
amounts to 10 inches in northern Baja California Sur and Sonora in
Mexico and well as the Southern Plains and the Ozarks of the United
States. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides within mountainous terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the
Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-10-10 09:33

WTPZ41 KNHC 100842 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
200 AM PDT WED OCT 10 2018

THIS MORNING'S CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE PRESENTATION REVEALS LITTLE
CHANGE IN SERGIO'S CLOUD PATTERN. THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION RESIDES IN THE NORTH PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION WITH SOME
NEW BURSTS DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTH SEMICIRCLE. CONSEQUENTLY, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AGAIN AT 60 KT, AND IS SUPPORTED BY
THE TAFB AND SAB DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

GRADUAL SPIN DOWN OF THE CYCLONE IS STILL EXPECTED TO COMMENCE SOON
AS SERGIO BEGINS ITS TREK OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND INTO A REGION OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR AND A
DRIER MID-LEVEL TROPOSPHERE. OVER THE WEEKEND, AFTER QUICKLY MOVING
OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, SERGIO SHOULD WEAKEN
FURTHER OVER THE STATE OF SONORA IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO, DEGENERATE
INTO A REMNANT LOW EARLY SUNDAY, AND IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES, ALTHOUGH THIS DISSIPATION
COULD OCCUR SOONER, AS INDICATED IN THE EUROPEAN GLOBAL MODELS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, OR 065/10
KT, WITHIN THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PRODUCED BY A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. SERGIO SHOULD CONTINUE TO
ACCELERATE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, AND APPROACH BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON EARLY FRIDAY. THE NHC
FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS
CLOSE TO THE VARIOUS MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AIDS.

2018-10-10 09:33

WTPZ41 KNHC 100842
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
200 AM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018

This morning's conventional satellite presentation reveals little
change in Sergio's cloud pattern. The majority of the deep
convection resides in the north portion of the circulation with some
new bursts developing in the south semicircle. Consequently, the
initial intensity will be kept again at 60 kt, and is supported by
the TAFB and SAB Dvorak intensity estimates.

Gradual spin down of the cyclone is still expected to commence soon
as Sergio begins its trek over decreasing sea surface temperatures
and into a region of increasing southwesterly vertical shear and a
drier mid-level troposphere. Over the weekend, after quickly moving
over the central Baja California peninsula, Sergio should weaken
further over the state of Sonora in northwestern Mexico, degenerate
into a remnant low early Sunday, and is forecast to dissipate over
the Southern Plains of the United States, although this dissipation
could occur sooner, as indicated in the European global models.

The initial motion is estimated to be east-northeastward, or 065/10
kt, within the mid-tropospheric southwesterly flow produced by a
mid-latitude trough extending southwestward over the eastern Pacific
from the southwestern United States. Sergio should continue to
accelerate toward the east-northeast or northeast over the next few
days, and approach Baja California Sur on early Friday. The NHC
forecast is basically an update of the previous advisory and is
close to the various multi-model consensus aids.

The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants will
likely be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within
mountainous terrain in the Mexico state of Sonora, the U.S. Southern
Plains and the Ozarks through the weekend. For more information
about this potential hazard, see products from the Weather
Prediction Center and your local weather forecast office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 17.5N 124.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 18.8N 122.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 20.6N 120.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 23.0N 117.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 25.4N 114.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 30.3N 107.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 14/0600Z 34.5N 97.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-10-10 09:33

WTPZ31 KNHC 100841 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
200 AM PDT WED OCT 10 2018

...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE EAST AND WEST
COASTS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...............FLOODING RAINS FROM SERGIO EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 124.9W
ABOUT 1020 MI...1640 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA
EUGENIA TO CABO SAN LAZARO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
............. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA
EUGENIA
TO
CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
............. EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA
SAN
JUAN
BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA

2018-10-10 09:33

WTPZ31 KNHC 100841
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number 44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
200 AM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE EAST AND WEST
COASTS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...FLOODING RAINS FROM SERGIO EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 124.9W
ABOUT 1020 MI...1640 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta
Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch along
the east coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia San Juan
Bautista to San Evaristo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to
Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia San Juan
Bautista to San Evaristo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California
peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of
Sergio. Additional watches or warnings may be required on Thursday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was
located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 124.9 West. Sergio is
moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). An east-
northeastward to northeastward motion with a further increase in
forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast
track, the center of Sergio will approach the Pacific coast of Baja
California Sur early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Through Sunday, heavy rainfall with Sergio is expected to
lead to storm total accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with local
amounts to 10 inches in northern Baja California Sur and Sonora in
Mexico and well as the Southern Plains and the Ozarks of the United
States. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides within mountainous terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the
Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 AM PDT.
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-10-10 09:33

WTPZ21 KNHC 100837 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
0900 UTC WED OCT 10 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA
EUGENIA TO CABO SAN LAZARO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO
CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
SERGIO. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED ON THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 124.9W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 300SE 300SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

2018-10-10 09:33

WTPZ21 KNHC 100837
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
0900 UTC WED OCT 10 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA
EUGENIA TO CABO SAN LAZARO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO
CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
SERGIO. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED ON THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 124.9W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 300SE 300SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 124.9W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 125.2W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.8N 122.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.6N 120.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 110SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.0N 117.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 110SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 25.4N 114.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 110SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 30.3N 107.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 80SE 60SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 34.5N 97.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 124.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

2018-10-10 04:39

WTNT82 EGRR 100400

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 10.10.2018

HURRICANE LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 29.7N 42.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 10.10.2018 0 29.7N 42.6W 976 55
1200UTC 10.10.2018 12 28.1N 42.4W 974 58
0000UTC 11.10.2018 24 27.8N 42.0W 964 67
1200UTC 11.10.2018 36 28.4N 40.3W 956 69
0000UTC 12.10.2018 48 29.7N 37.2W 952 73
1200UTC 12.10.2018 60 31.0N 33.0W 956 78
0000UTC 13.10.2018 72 31.4N 27.8W 966 68
1200UTC 13.10.2018 84 30.9N 23.9W 978 62
0000UTC 14.10.2018 96 29.2N 23.2W 994 40
1200UTC 14.10.2018 108 27.6N 24.7W 1002 34
0000UTC 15.10.2018 120 26.1N 27.0W 1005 33
1200UTC 15.10.2018 132 24.7N 29.5W 1006 31
0000UTC 16.10.2018 144 23.8N 31.2W 1005 32

HURRICANE MICHAEL ANALYSED POSITION : 26.7N 86.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 10.10.2018 0 26.7N 86.5W 970 64
1200UTC 10.10.2018 12 28.7N 86.4W 966 63
0000UTC 11.10.2018 24 31.1N 84.6W 967 46
1200UTC 11.10.2018 36 33.6N 81.8W 977 45
0000UTC 12.10.2018 48 35.9N 77.8W 980 46
1200UTC 12.10.2018 60 38.6N 72.2W 975 61
0000UTC 13.10.2018 72 42.0N 63.1W 969 65
1200UTC 13.10.2018 84 46.1N 51.6W 967 58
0000UTC 14.10.2018 96 48.4N 38.4W 975 52
1200UTC 14.10.2018 108 49.2N 23.9W 980 45
0000UTC 15.10.2018 120 48.7N 15.5W 983 45
1200UTC 15.10.2018 132 46.6N 9.6W 995 35
0000UTC 16.10.2018 144 44.7N 7.4W 1006 27

TROPICAL STORM NADINE ANALYSED POSITION : 11.2N 30.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 10.10.2018 0 11.2N 30.5W 1003 39
1200UTC 10.10.2018 12 12.2N 31.7W 1000 45
0000UTC 11.10.2018 24 13.0N 32.3W 996 59
1200UTC 11.10.2018 36 13.7N 32.6W 998 53
0000UTC 12.10.2018 48 14.5N 33.4W 1002 45
1200UTC 12.10.2018 60 15.0N 34.4W 1006 36
0000UTC 13.10.2018 72 15.5N 36.1W 1009 31
1200UTC 13.10.2018 84 16.3N 38.6W 1012 28
0000UTC 14.10.2018 96 17.3N 41.3W 1013 29
1200UTC 14.10.2018 108 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N 126.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 10.10.2018 0 17.0N 126.6W 971 58
1200UTC 10.10.2018 12 17.8N 124.9W 967 61
0000UTC 11.10.2018 24 19.1N 122.4W 960 67
1200UTC 11.10.2018 36 21.2N 119.6W 956 72
0000UTC 12.10.2018 48 23.6N 116.9W 969 64
1200UTC 12.10.2018 60 25.9N 113.9W 981 53
0000UTC 13.10.2018 72 28.6N 110.3W 993 33
1200UTC 13.10.2018 84 31.0N 103.9W 1004 19
0000UTC 14.10.2018 96 32.5N 99.6W 1003 23
1200UTC 14.10.2018 108 33.6N 95.9W 1007 21
0000UTC 15.10.2018 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 14.5N 82.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.10.2018 132 14.5N 82.5W 1006 28
0000UTC 16.10.2018 144 14.1N 85.3W 1005 28


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 100400

2018-10-10 04:39

WTNT80 EGRR 100400

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 10.10.2018

HURRICANE LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 29.7N 42.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 10.10.2018 29.7N 42.6W STRONG
12UTC 10.10.2018 28.1N 42.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.10.2018 27.8N 42.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.10.2018 28.4N 40.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.10.2018 29.7N 37.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.10.2018 31.0N 33.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.10.2018 31.4N 27.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.10.2018 30.9N 23.9W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 14.10.2018 29.2N 23.2W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 14.10.2018 27.6N 24.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 15.10.2018 26.1N 27.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.10.2018 24.7N 29.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.10.2018 23.8N 31.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

HURRICANE MICHAEL ANALYSED POSITION : 26.7N 86.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 10.10.2018 26.7N 86.5W STRONG
12UTC 10.10.2018 28.7N 86.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.10.2018 31.1N 84.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.10.2018 33.6N 81.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.10.2018 35.9N 77.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.10.2018 38.6N 72.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.10.2018 42.0N 63.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.10.2018 46.1N 51.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.10.2018 48.4N 38.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 14.10.2018 49.2N 23.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 15.10.2018 48.7N 15.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.10.2018 46.6N 9.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.10.2018 44.7N 7.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

TROPICAL STORM NADINE ANALYSED POSITION : 11.2N 30.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 10.10.2018 11.2N 30.5W WEAK
12UTC 10.10.2018 12.2N 31.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.10.2018 13.0N 32.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.10.2018 13.7N 32.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.10.2018 14.5N 33.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.10.2018 15.0N 34.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.10.2018 15.5N 36.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.10.2018 16.3N 38.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.10.2018 17.3N 41.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N 126.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 10.10.2018 17.0N 126.6W STRONG
12UTC 10.10.2018 17.8N 124.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.10.2018 19.1N 122.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.10.2018 21.2N 119.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.10.2018 23.6N 116.9W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 12.10.2018 25.9N 113.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.10.2018 28.6N 110.3W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 13.10.2018 31.0N 103.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.10.2018 32.5N 99.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.10.2018 33.6N 95.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 15.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 14.5N 82.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.10.2018 14.5N 82.5W WEAK
00UTC 16.10.2018 14.1N 85.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 100400

2018-10-10 03:33

WTPZ41 KNHC 100236 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
800 PM PDT TUE OCT 09 2018

THE GOES-15 SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND AN EARLIER ATMS POLAR
ORBITER MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED LITTLE CHANGE IN SERGIO'S CLOUD
PATTERN DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS IN THE
NORTH SEMICIRCLE IN THE FORM OF A RATHER LARGE CURVED BAND WHILE THE
SOUTHERN PORTION IS COMPRISED OF FRAGMENTED BANDS. A BLEND OF THE
DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS, WHICH HAVEN'T CHANGED MUCH,
SUPPORTS HOLDING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 6-12
HOURS, AS SERGIO TRAVERSES RELATIVELY WARM OCEANIC TEMPERATURES AND
REMAINS IN A LOW SHEAR SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT. AFTERWARD,
STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS WEAKENING THROUGH
THE 48 PERIOD, OR PRIOR TO LANDFALL, AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER
COOLER WATERS AND INTO A REGION OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
SHEAR. OVER THE WEEKEND, AFTER QUICKLY MOVING OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR, SERGIO WILL WEAKEN FURTHER OVER THE STATE OF SONORA IN
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO, DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4, AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, OR 060/10
KT, WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PRODUCED BY A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH STRETCHING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. SERGIO SHOULD CONTINUE
TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, MOVING OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON FRIDAY, AND OVER THE

2018-10-10 03:33

WTPZ41 KNHC 100236
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
800 PM PDT Tue Oct 09 2018

The GOES-15 satellite presentation and an earlier ATMS polar
orbiter microwave image revealed little change in Sergio's cloud
pattern during the past 6 hours. Deep convection persists in the
north semicircle in the form of a rather large curved band while the
southern portion is comprised of fragmented bands. A blend of the
Dvorak satellite classifications, which haven't changed much,
supports holding the initial intensity at 60 kt for this advisory.

Very little change in strength is forecast during the next 6-12
hours, as Sergio traverses relatively warm oceanic temperatures and
remains in a low shear surrounding environment. Afterward,
statistical and dynamical intensity guidance shows weakening through
the 48 period, or prior to landfall, as the cyclone moves over
cooler waters and into a region of increasing southwesterly vertical
shear. Over the weekend, after quickly moving over Baja California
Sur, Sergio will weaken further over the state of Sonora in
northwestern Mexico, degenerate into a remnant low by day 4, and
dissipate over the Southern Plains of the United States.

The initial motion is estimated to be east-northeastward, or 060/10
kt, within the deep-layer southwesterly flow produced by a
mid-latitude trough stretching southwestward over the eastern
Pacific from the southwestern United States. Sergio should continue
to accelerate toward the east-northeast or northeast over the next
few days, moving over Baja California Sur on Friday, and over the
Gulf of California and into northwestern Mexico Friday night and
Saturday.

The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants will
likely be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within
mountainous terrain in the Mexico state of Sonora, the U.S.
Southern Plains and the Ozarks through the weekend. For more
information about this potential hazard, see products from the
Weather Prediction Center and your local weather forecast office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 17.5N 125.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 18.2N 124.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 19.6N 121.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 21.7N 119.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 24.1N 116.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 28.7N 110.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 14/0000Z 33.0N 101.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-10-10 03:33

WTPZ31 KNHC 100235 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
800 PM PDT TUE OCT 09 2018

...SERGIO ACCELERATING TOWARD THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 125.6W
ABOUT 1085 MI...1740 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
SERGIO.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 125.6 WEST. SERGIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). AN EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, THE CENTER OF SERGIO WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES (220 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB (29.27 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: THROUGH SUNDAY, HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCAL

2018-10-10 03:33

WTPZ31 KNHC 100235
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
800 PM PDT Tue Oct 09 2018

...SERGIO ACCELERATING TOWARD THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 125.6W
ABOUT 1085 MI...1740 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of
Sergio.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was
located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 125.6 West. Sergio is
moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). An east-
northeastward to northeastward motion with a further increase in
forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast
track, the center of Sergio will approach the Pacific coast of Baja
California Sur on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Through Sunday, heavy rainfall with Sergio is expected to
lead to storm total accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with local
amounts to 10 inches in northern Baja California Sur and Sonora in
Mexico and well as the Southern Plains and the Ozarks of the United
States. This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides within mountainous terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the
Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-10-10 03:33

WTPZ21 KNHC 100234 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
0300 UTC WED OCT 10 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
SERGIO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 125.6W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 125.6W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 126.1W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.2N 124.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 110SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.6N 121.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.7N 119.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...110NE 140SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.1N 116.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 110SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 28.7N 110.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 80SE 60SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

2018-10-10 03:33

WTPZ21 KNHC 100234
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
0300 UTC WED OCT 10 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
SERGIO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 125.6W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 125.6W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 126.1W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.2N 124.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 110SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.6N 121.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.7N 119.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...110NE 140SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.1N 116.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 110SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 28.7N 110.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 80SE 60SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 33.0N 101.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 125.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

2018-10-09 21:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 092055 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 09 2018

DAYS OF SLOW MOVEMENT AND COLD WATER UPWELLING APPEAR TO HAVE
FINALLY TAKEN A TOLL ON SERGIO. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE CYCLONE HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY SINCE THIS MORNING,
AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SERGIO'S EYEWALL IS NO
LONGER FULLY CLOSED. DVORAK-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE
DECREASED ACCORDINGLY AND NOW SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF ONLY
60 KT. A RECENT PARTIAL ASCAT OVERPASS ALSO SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS
OF ONLY 50-55 KT IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE, AND
THESE DATA ALSO SUPPORT MAKING SERGIO A TROPICAL STORM.

THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, OR 060/8 KT.
NO IMPORTANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS
MERELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE TROPICAL STORM WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BEFORE APPROACHING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA ON FRIDAY. THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE TRACK
CONSENSUS AT ALL TIMES AND CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS HIGH.

NOW THAT SERGIO IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER, IT HAS A CHANCE TO MOVE
OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LITTLE
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. BEYOND 36
H, FASTER WEAKENING IS STILL POSSIBLE AS THE STORM REACHES MUCH
COLDER WATERS AND THE SHEAR OVER THE TROPICAL STORM INCREASES.
RAPID WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED AFTER SERGIO MAKES ITS
FINAL LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO, THOUGH A 96 H

2018-10-09 21:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 092055
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
200 PM PDT Tue Oct 09 2018

Days of slow movement and cold water upwelling appear to have
finally taken a toll on Sergio. Cloud top temperatures on the west
side of the cyclone have warmed considerably since this morning,
and microwave imagery indicates that Sergio's eyewall is no
longer fully closed. Dvorak-based intensity estimates have
decreased accordingly and now support an initial intensity of only
60 kt. A recent partial ASCAT overpass also showed maximum winds
of only 50-55 kt in the eastern semicircle of the cyclone, and
these data also support making Sergio a tropical storm.

The tropical storm is moving east-northeastward, or 060/8 kt.
No important changes were made to the track forecast, which is
merely an update of the previous advisory. The tropical storm will
likely continue to accelerate toward the east-northeast or northeast
over the next few days, before approaching the Baja California
peninsula on Friday. The NHC forecast remains near the track
consensus at all times and confidence in the track forecast is high.

Now that Sergio is moving a little faster, it has a chance to move
over slightly warmer waters during the next few hours. The
intensity guidance is in fairly good agreement that little
additional weakening is likely for the next day or so. Beyond 36
h, faster weakening is still possible as the storm reaches much
colder waters and the shear over the tropical storm increases.
Rapid weakening and dissipation is expected after Sergio makes its
final landfall along the coast of mainland Mexico, though a 96 h
point remnant low is maintained again in this advisory to represent
the inland movement of Sergio. The NHC forecast is essentially an
average of the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids at all forecast hours.

The biggest hazard associated with Sergio and its remnants will
likely be heavy rain that will affect portions of northwestern
Mexico and the U.S. Southern Plains through Sunday. For more
information about this potential hazard, see products from the
Weather Prediction Center and your local weather forecast office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 16.9N 126.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 17.5N 125.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 18.7N 123.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 20.3N 121.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 22.7N 118.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 27.3N 112.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 31.0N 105.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-10-09 21:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 092054 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 09 2018

...SERGIO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 126.5W
ABOUT 1155 MI...1855 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
SERGIO.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 126.5 WEST. SERGIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). AN EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE
CENTER OF SERGIO WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES (220 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB (29.24 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH SERGIO AND ITS REMNANTS IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH

2018-10-09 21:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 092054
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
200 PM PDT Tue Oct 09 2018

...SERGIO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 126.5W
ABOUT 1155 MI...1855 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of
Sergio.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was
located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 126.5 West. Sergio is
moving toward the east-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). An east-
northeastward to northeastward motion with a faster forward speed is
expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the
center of Sergio will approach the Pacific coast of the Baja
California peninsula on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next
several days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Sergio and its remnants is
expected to produce storm total accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with
local amounts to 10 inches in northern Baja California Sur and
Sonora in Mexico as well as the Southern Plains and Ozarks of the
United States through Sunday. This could lead to life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the
Baja California Peninsula by Wednesday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-10-09 21:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 092053 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
2100 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
SERGIO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 126.5W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 330SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 126.5W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 127.0W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.5N 125.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 110SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.7N 123.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.3N 121.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...110NE 140SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 22.7N 118.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 27.3N 112.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 110SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

2018-10-09 21:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 092053
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
2100 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
SERGIO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 126.5W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 330SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 126.5W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 127.0W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.5N 125.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 110SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.7N 123.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.3N 121.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...110NE 140SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 22.7N 118.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 27.3N 112.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 110SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 31.0N 105.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 126.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-10-09 16:32

WTNT82 EGRR 091558

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 09.10.2018

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 31.6N 43.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.10.2018 0 31.6N 43.5W 983 49
0000UTC 10.10.2018 12 29.5N 43.1W 981 48
1200UTC 10.10.2018 24 28.0N 43.2W 982 49
0000UTC 11.10.2018 36 27.5N 42.7W 978 53
1200UTC 11.10.2018 48 28.3N 41.2W 970 61
0000UTC 12.10.2018 60 29.8N 38.2W 960 70
1200UTC 12.10.2018 72 31.4N 33.9W 955 76
0000UTC 13.10.2018 84 31.7N 29.0W 967 68
1200UTC 13.10.2018 96 31.4N 25.1W 976 59
0000UTC 14.10.2018 108 30.2N 24.4W 993 45
1200UTC 14.10.2018 120 28.9N 25.8W 1002 38
0000UTC 15.10.2018 132 27.7N 28.3W 1005 33
1200UTC 15.10.2018 144 26.4N 30.5W 1006 32

HURRICANE MICHAEL ANALYSED POSITION : 24.6N 86.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.10.2018 0 24.6N 86.1W 966 70
0000UTC 10.10.2018 12 26.5N 86.3W 966 69
1200UTC 10.10.2018 24 28.5N 86.1W 964 68
0000UTC 11.10.2018 36 30.7N 84.6W 963 50
1200UTC 11.10.2018 48 33.0N 81.8W 974 49
0000UTC 12.10.2018 60 35.5N 78.1W 976 51
1200UTC 12.10.2018 72 38.0N 73.1W 971 64
0000UTC 13.10.2018 84 41.1N 65.1W 964 65
1200UTC 13.10.2018 96 45.3N 54.1W 964 62
0000UTC 14.10.2018 108 47.9N 41.7W 973 54
1200UTC 14.10.2018 120 49.2N 27.6W 979 49
0000UTC 15.10.2018 132 49.6N 16.6W 979 47
1200UTC 15.10.2018 144 47.2N 10.7W 995 36

TROPICAL STORM NADINE ANALYSED POSITION : 9.9N 30.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.10.2018 0 9.9N 30.3W 1007 27
0000UTC 10.10.2018 12 10.9N 31.0W 1004 37
1200UTC 10.10.2018 24 11.9N 32.1W 1002 43
0000UTC 11.10.2018 36 13.2N 32.8W 997 53
1200UTC 11.10.2018 48 14.1N 33.4W 996 55
0000UTC 12.10.2018 60 15.0N 34.1W 1001 46
1200UTC 12.10.2018 72 15.8N 35.0W 1005 38
0000UTC 13.10.2018 84 16.5N 36.3W 1008 34
1200UTC 13.10.2018 96 17.3N 38.4W 1011 29
0000UTC 14.10.2018 108 18.0N 40.8W 1012 29
1200UTC 14.10.2018 120 18.6N 43.5W 1013 26
0000UTC 15.10.2018 132 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 16.2N 128.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.10.2018 0 16.2N 128.2W 979 54
0000UTC 10.10.2018 12 16.7N 126.8W 978 51
1200UTC 10.10.2018 24 17.7N 124.9W 973 58
0000UTC 11.10.2018 36 18.9N 122.4W 967 64
1200UTC 11.10.2018 48 20.8N 119.6W 961 68
0000UTC 12.10.2018 60 23.2N 116.7W 967 64
1200UTC 12.10.2018 72 25.5N 113.9W 978 56
0000UTC 13.10.2018 84 28.1N 110.6W 987 40
1200UTC 13.10.2018 96 30.9N 104.3W 1004 22
0000UTC 14.10.2018 108 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 091558

2018-10-09 16:32

WTNT80 EGRR 091558

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 09.10.2018

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 31.6N 43.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.10.2018 31.6N 43.5W MODERATE
00UTC 10.10.2018 29.5N 43.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.10.2018 28.0N 43.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.10.2018 27.5N 42.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.10.2018 28.3N 41.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.10.2018 29.8N 38.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.10.2018 31.4N 33.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.10.2018 31.7N 29.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.10.2018 31.4N 25.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.10.2018 30.2N 24.4W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 14.10.2018 28.9N 25.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 15.10.2018 27.7N 28.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.10.2018 26.4N 30.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

HURRICANE MICHAEL ANALYSED POSITION : 24.6N 86.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.10.2018 24.6N 86.1W STRONG
00UTC 10.10.2018 26.5N 86.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.10.2018 28.5N 86.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.10.2018 30.7N 84.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.10.2018 33.0N 81.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.10.2018 35.5N 78.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.10.2018 38.0N 73.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.10.2018 41.1N 65.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.10.2018 45.3N 54.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.10.2018 47.9N 41.7W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 14.10.2018 49.2N 27.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 15.10.2018 49.6N 16.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.10.2018 47.2N 10.7W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

TROPICAL STORM NADINE ANALYSED POSITION : 9.9N 30.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.10.2018 9.9N 30.3W WEAK
00UTC 10.10.2018 10.9N 31.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.10.2018 11.9N 32.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.10.2018 13.2N 32.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.10.2018 14.1N 33.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.10.2018 15.0N 34.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.10.2018 15.8N 35.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.10.2018 16.5N 36.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.10.2018 17.3N 38.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.10.2018 18.0N 40.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.10.2018 18.6N 43.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 16.2N 128.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.10.2018 16.2N 128.2W STRONG
00UTC 10.10.2018 16.7N 126.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.10.2018 17.7N 124.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.10.2018 18.9N 122.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.10.2018 20.8N 119.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.10.2018 23.2N 116.7W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.10.2018 25.5N 113.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.10.2018 28.1N 110.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.10.2018 30.9N 104.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 14.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 091558

2018-10-09 15:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 091448 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 09 2018

SERGIO APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED ITS SLOW WEAKENING. CLOUD TOPS ON
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE HURRICANE HAVE WARMED, AND DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE DECREASED. HOWEVER, RECENT
AMSR-2 AND SSMIS IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE STILL HAS A
LARGE BUT WELL-DEFINED INNER-CORE IN THE LOW AND MID-LEVELS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT, BASED ON A BLEND OF FINAL-T AND
CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB, AND THE MOST RECENT UW-CIMSS SATCON
ESTIMATE.

THERE HAS BEEN ALMOST NO CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST AND ONLY
VERY GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 H.
BEYOND THAT TIME, SERGIO WILL PASS OVER COLDER SSTS, INCLUDING THE
STILL-PRESENT COLD WAKE OF FORMER HURRICANE ROSA, AND CONTINUED
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. SERGIO IS THEREFORE STILL FORECAST TO BE A
TROPICAL STORM WHEN IT REACHES THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA IN A FEW DAYS. RAPID WEAKENING IS LIKELY AFTER SERGIO
MAKES ITS FINAL LANDFALL IN NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO LATE THIS
WEEK, AND THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE OR BECOME A REMNANT LOW
SHORTLY AFTER MOVING INLAND.

VIRTUALLY NO CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST, WHICH
REMAINS NEAR THE TVCN AND HCCA CONSENSUS AIDS. ALL OF THE GLOBAL
AND REGIONAL MODELS SHOW THAT SERGIO WILL ACCELERATE GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS, APPROACHING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA ON FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE
MODELS REGARDING THE EXACT SPEED OF SERGIO THROUGH THAT TIME, BUT

2018-10-09 15:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 091448
TCDEP1

Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
800 AM PDT Tue Oct 09 2018

Sergio appears to have resumed its slow weakening. Cloud tops on
the western half of the hurricane have warmed, and Dvorak
classifications from TAFB and SAB have decreased. However, recent
AMSR-2 and SSMIS images indicate that the hurricane still has a
large but well-defined inner-core in the low and mid-levels. The
initial intensity is set at 70 kt, based on a blend of Final-T and
CI numbers from TAFB and SAB, and the most recent UW-CIMSS SATCON
estimate.

There has been almost no change to the intensity forecast and only
very gradual weakening is forecast during the next 36 to 48 h.
Beyond that time, Sergio will pass over colder SSTs, including the
still-present cold wake of former Hurricane Rosa, and continued
weakening is expected as the cyclone approaches the Baja
California peninsula. Sergio is therefore still forecast to be a
tropical storm when it reaches the west coast of the Baja California
peninsula in a few days. Rapid weakening is likely after Sergio
makes its final landfall in northwestern mainland Mexico late this
week, and the cyclone will likely dissipate or become a remnant low
shortly after moving inland.

Virtually no change has been made to the track forecast, which
remains near the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids. All of the global
and regional models show that Sergio will accelerate generally
northeastward for the next 3 days, approaching the Baja California
peninsula on Friday. There is still some disagreement among the
models regarding the exact speed of Sergio through that time, but
there is very little cross-track spread. Confidence in the track
forecast is fairly high.

Moisture associated with the remnants of Sergio is expected to
affect portions of northwestern Mexico, the southwestern United
States, and the U.S. southern plains over the weekend and could
potentially cause heavy rainfall in this region. For more
information about this potential hazard, see products from the
Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 16.6N 127.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 17.1N 126.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 18.1N 124.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 19.7N 122.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 21.7N 119.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 26.2N 113.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 31.0N 106.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-10-09 15:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 091447 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 09 2018

...SERGIO SLOWLY WEAKENING AND MOVING FASTER NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 127.4W
ABOUT 1215 MI...1960 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
SERGIO.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 127.4 WEST. SERGIO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). A FASTER NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH (130 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES
(220 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB (29.00 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY SERGIO WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE

2018-10-09 15:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 091447
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Sergio Advisory Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
800 AM PDT Tue Oct 09 2018

...SERGIO SLOWLY WEAKENING AND MOVING FASTER NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 127.4W
ABOUT 1215 MI...1960 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of
Sergio.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sergio was located
near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 127.4 West. Sergio is moving
toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster northeastward
motion is expected for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated during the next
several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the
Baja California Peninsula by Wednesday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-10-09 15:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 091447 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
1500 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
SERGIO.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 127.4W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
EYE DIAMETER 70 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 270SE 360SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 127.4W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 127.7W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.1N 126.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.1N 124.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 130SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.7N 122.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...110NE 140SE 130SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.7N 119.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 26.2N 113.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

2018-10-09 15:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 091447
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
1500 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
SERGIO.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 127.4W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
EYE DIAMETER 70 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 270SE 360SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 127.4W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 127.7W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.1N 126.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.1N 124.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 130SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.7N 122.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...110NE 140SE 130SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.7N 119.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 26.2N 113.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 120SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 31.0N 106.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 127.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-10-09 09:33

WTPZ41 KNHC 090838
TCDEP1

Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
200 AM PDT Tue Oct 09 2018

Sergio's cloud pattern has changed little in the past 6 hours and is
comprised of a fragmented, large outer ring, about 100 n mi in
diameter. The coldest cloud tops are now confined to just the
southeast portion of cyclone's circulation. The Dvorak satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support maintaining the
initial intensity at 75 kt.

Some slow weakening, or possibly very little change in strength, is
expected during the next 36 hours as Sergio traverses marginally
conducive oceanic temperatures and remains in a low shear
surrounding environment. Afterward, the cyclone should enter a
region of much cooler sea surface temperatures and increasing
southwesterly shear, which should influence significant weakening
and reducing Sergio to a tropical storm prior to landfall. Sergio
is forecast to move inland over Baja California Sur on Friday and
into the northwestern Mexico state of Sonora early Saturday. At
the end of the forecast period, Sergio is expected to further
degenerate into a remnant low over the southwestern United States.
The intensity forecast is weighed heavily on the NOAA-HCCA and the
GFS and ECMWF global models which show Sergio making landfall as a
tropical storm.

Moisture associated with the remnants of Sergio is expected to
affect northwestern Mexico and portions of the southwest United
States over the weekend and could potentially cause heavy rainfall
in this region. For more information about this potential hazard,
see products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS
forecast office.

The initial motion is estimated to be northeastward, or 050/5 kt.
Sergio should begin accelerating in the aforementioned direction
this morning, and approach the central Baja California peninsula in
about 3 days. There is high confidence in the forecast track as the
available global and regional models are clustered tightly together
through day 5. The NHC forecast lies in the middle of the guidance
cluster and is close to the TVCN/HCCA consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 16.3N 127.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 16.7N 127.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 17.6N 125.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 18.8N 123.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 20.7N 120.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 25.1N 114.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 30.0N 108.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 14/0600Z 36.3N 97.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-10-09 09:33

WTPZ41 KNHC 090838 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 09 2018

SERGIO'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN THE PAST 6 HOURS AND IS
COMPRISED OF A FRAGMENTED, LARGE OUTER RING, ABOUT 100 N MI IN
DIAMETER. THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE NOW CONFINED TO JUST THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF CYCLONE'S CIRCULATION. THE DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE
INITIAL INTENSITY AT 75 KT.

SOME SLOW WEAKENING, OR POSSIBLY VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH, IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS SERGIO TRAVERSES MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE OCEANIC TEMPERATURES AND REMAINS IN A LOW SHEAR
SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT. AFTERWARD, THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENTER A
REGION OF MUCH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR, WHICH SHOULD INFLUENCE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING
AND REDUCING SERGIO TO A TROPICAL STORM PRIOR TO LANDFALL. SERGIO
IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON FRIDAY AND
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN MEXICO STATE OF SONORA EARLY SATURDAY. AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS WEIGHED HEAVILY ON THE NOAA-HCCA AND THE
GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS WHICH SHOW SERGIO MAKING LANDFALL AS A
TROPICAL STORM.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND AND COULD POTENTIALLY CAUSE HEAVY RAINFALL
IN THIS REGION. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS POTENTIAL HAZARD,
SEE PRODUCTS FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER AND YOUR LOCAL NWS

2018-10-09 09:33

WTPZ31 KNHC 090836 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 09 2018

...SERGIO FINALLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 127.9W
ABOUT 1255 MI...2020 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
SERGIO.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 127.9 WEST. SERGIO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH (140 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES
(220 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB (28.88 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY SERGIO WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE

2018-10-09 09:33

WTPZ31 KNHC 090836
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Sergio Advisory Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
200 AM PDT Tue Oct 09 2018

...SERGIO FINALLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 127.9W
ABOUT 1255 MI...2020 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of
Sergio.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sergio was located
near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 127.9 West. Sergio is moving
toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion
should continue during the next several days with an increase in
forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated during the next several
days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the
Baja California Peninsula by Wednesday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-10-09 09:33

WTPZ21 KNHC 090836 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
0900 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 127.9W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 330SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 127.9W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 128.2W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.7N 127.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.6N 125.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.8N 123.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.7N 120.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 130SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 25.1N 114.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 120SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

2018-10-09 09:33

WTPZ21 KNHC 090836
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
0900 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 127.9W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 330SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 127.9W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 128.2W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.7N 127.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.6N 125.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.8N 123.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.7N 120.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 130SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 25.1N 114.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 120SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 30.0N 108.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 36.3N 97.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 127.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

2018-10-09 04:32

WTNT82 EGRR 090359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 09.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93L ANALYSED POSITION : 10.0N 28.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 09.10.2018 0 10.0N 28.9W 1011 21
1200UTC 09.10.2018 12 10.3N 30.8W 1010 23
0000UTC 10.10.2018 24 10.6N 31.9W 1008 26
1200UTC 10.10.2018 36 11.7N 33.2W 1006 34
0000UTC 11.10.2018 48 12.5N 34.2W 1004 39
1200UTC 11.10.2018 60 13.3N 34.9W 1005 41
0000UTC 12.10.2018 72 14.1N 35.6W 1007 35
1200UTC 12.10.2018 84 14.7N 36.5W 1009 32
0000UTC 13.10.2018 96 15.0N 38.2W 1010 28
1200UTC 13.10.2018 108 15.4N 40.6W 1012 27
0000UTC 14.10.2018 120 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 33.4N 45.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 09.10.2018 0 33.4N 45.0W 981 54
1200UTC 09.10.2018 12 31.4N 43.6W 972 60
0000UTC 10.10.2018 24 29.4N 43.3W 969 61
1200UTC 10.10.2018 36 28.0N 43.5W 971 59
0000UTC 11.10.2018 48 27.5N 43.1W 963 65
1200UTC 11.10.2018 60 28.5N 41.4W 951 76
0000UTC 12.10.2018 72 30.2N 38.0W 941 82
1200UTC 12.10.2018 84 31.9N 33.1W 947 81
0000UTC 13.10.2018 96 32.6N 26.6W 960 75
1200UTC 13.10.2018 108 32.8N 21.1W 972 68
0000UTC 14.10.2018 120 31.4N 18.1W 985 46
1200UTC 14.10.2018 132 29.4N 17.8W 998 46
0000UTC 15.10.2018 144 27.5N 18.3W 1005 31

HURRICANE MICHAEL ANALYSED POSITION : 22.8N 85.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 09.10.2018 0 22.8N 85.2W 972 67
1200UTC 09.10.2018 12 24.5N 85.8W 973 61
0000UTC 10.10.2018 24 26.4N 86.2W 969 62
1200UTC 10.10.2018 36 28.6N 86.0W 963 66
0000UTC 11.10.2018 48 31.0N 84.5W 961 53
1200UTC 11.10.2018 60 33.3N 82.0W 974 47
0000UTC 12.10.2018 72 35.6N 78.1W 979 51
1200UTC 12.10.2018 84 38.4N 73.1W 973 61
0000UTC 13.10.2018 96 41.5N 64.6W 964 67
1200UTC 13.10.2018 108 45.3N 52.6W 964 62
0000UTC 14.10.2018 120 48.4N 38.5W 973 51
1200UTC 14.10.2018 132 48.7N 25.7W 980 51
0000UTC 15.10.2018 144 48.3N 17.1W 992 40

HURRICANE SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 15.8N 128.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 09.10.2018 0 15.8N 128.5W 977 53
1200UTC 09.10.2018 12 16.3N 127.8W 975 54
0000UTC 10.10.2018 24 16.9N 126.4W 977 51
1200UTC 10.10.2018 36 17.9N 124.3W 973 58
0000UTC 11.10.2018 48 19.4N 121.6W 965 66
1200UTC 11.10.2018 60 21.4N 118.8W 960 69
0000UTC 12.10.2018 72 23.8N 115.6W 968 70
1200UTC 12.10.2018 84 26.4N 112.7W 977 51
0000UTC 13.10.2018 96 29.4N 107.8W 1000 27
1200UTC 13.10.2018 108 32.3N 101.3W 1001 21
0000UTC 14.10.2018 120 33.9N 96.6W 1001 24
1200UTC 14.10.2018 132 34.8N 93.0W 1008 17
0000UTC 15.10.2018 144 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 090359

2018-10-09 04:32

WTNT80 EGRR 090359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 09.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93L ANALYSED POSITION : 10.0N 28.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 09.10.2018 10.0N 28.9W WEAK
12UTC 09.10.2018 10.3N 30.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.10.2018 10.6N 31.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.10.2018 11.7N 33.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.10.2018 12.5N 34.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.10.2018 13.3N 34.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.10.2018 14.1N 35.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.10.2018 14.7N 36.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.10.2018 15.0N 38.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.10.2018 15.4N 40.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 33.4N 45.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 09.10.2018 33.4N 45.0W MODERATE
12UTC 09.10.2018 31.4N 43.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.10.2018 29.4N 43.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.10.2018 28.0N 43.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.10.2018 27.5N 43.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.10.2018 28.5N 41.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 12.10.2018 30.2N 38.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.10.2018 31.9N 33.1W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.10.2018 32.6N 26.6W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 13.10.2018 32.8N 21.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.10.2018 31.4N 18.1W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 14.10.2018 29.4N 17.8W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 15.10.2018 27.5N 18.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

HURRICANE MICHAEL ANALYSED POSITION : 22.8N 85.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 09.10.2018 22.8N 85.2W STRONG
12UTC 09.10.2018 24.5N 85.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.10.2018 26.4N 86.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.10.2018 28.6N 86.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.10.2018 31.0N 84.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.10.2018 33.3N 82.0W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 12.10.2018 35.6N 78.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.10.2018 38.4N 73.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.10.2018 41.5N 64.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.10.2018 45.3N 52.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.10.2018 48.4N 38.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 14.10.2018 48.7N 25.7W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 15.10.2018 48.3N 17.1W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

HURRICANE SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 15.8N 128.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 09.10.2018 15.8N 128.5W STRONG
12UTC 09.10.2018 16.3N 127.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.10.2018 16.9N 126.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.10.2018 17.9N 124.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.10.2018 19.4N 121.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.10.2018 21.4N 118.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.10.2018 23.8N 115.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.10.2018 26.4N 112.7W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.10.2018 29.4N 107.8W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 13.10.2018 32.3N 101.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.10.2018 33.9N 96.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.10.2018 34.8N 93.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 15.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 090359

2018-10-09 03:34

WTPZ41 KNHC 090241 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
800 PM PDT MON OCT 08 2018

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE VISIBLE AND ENHANCED BD-CURVE INFRARED
IMAGERY REVEAL A RATHER LARGE, CURVED BAND FEATURE OUTLINING
ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WHAT ONCE WAS AN ENCLOSED RAGGED EYE. THIS
PRIMARY BAND IS STILL PRODUCING VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS, AND THE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE CHANGED LITTLE, SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

SERGIO SHOULD VERY SLOWLY SPIN DOWN DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT
TRAVERSES MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE OCEANIC TEMPERATURES. BEYOND THAT
PERIOD, SERGIO SHOULD ENTER A REGION OF MUCH COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR, WHICH SHOULD INDUCE
FURTHER WEAKENING AND AT A FASTER RATE. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK,
SERGIO IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND INTO NORTHERNWESTERN MEXICO IN 4 DAYS. AT WHICH TIME,
THE CYCLONE WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND AND COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE HEAVY RAINFALL IN THIS REGION. FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THIS POTENTIAL HAZARD, SEE PRODUCTS FROM THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER AND YOUR LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTHWARD, OR 360/3 KT.
SERGIO SHOULD BEGIN ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD TUESDAY, AND
APPROACH THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.
THE NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS

2018-10-09 03:34

WTPZ41 KNHC 090241
TCDEP1

Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
800 PM PDT Mon Oct 08 2018

Conventional satellite visible and enhanced BD-curve infrared
imagery reveal a rather large, curved band feature outlining
about 90 percent of what once was an enclosed ragged eye. This
primary band is still producing very cold cloud tops, and the
satellite intensity estimates have changed little, so the initial
intensity will be held at 75 kt for this advisory.

Sergio should very slowly spin down during the next 36 hours as it
traverses marginally conducive oceanic temperatures. Beyond that
period, Sergio should enter a region of much cooler sea surface
temperatures and increasing southwesterly shear, which should induce
further weakening and at a faster rate. Toward the end of the week,
Sergio is forecast to move inland over the central Baja California
peninsula and into northernwestern Mexico in 4 days. At which time,
the cyclone will quickly weaken and degenerate into a remnant low
over the southwestern United States. Moisture associated with the
remnants of Sergio is expected to affect northwestern Mexico and
portions of the southwest United States over the weekend and could
potentially cause heavy rainfall in this region. For more
information about this potential hazard, see products from the
Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office.

The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 360/3 kt.
Sergio should begin accelerating northeastward Tuesday, and
approach the central Baja California peninsula in about 3 days.
The NHC forecast is basically an update of the previous one and is
close to the various multi-model consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 16.0N 128.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 16.5N 127.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 17.2N 126.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 18.2N 124.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 19.7N 122.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 24.0N 116.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 29.3N 109.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 14/0000Z 35.4N 99.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-10-09 03:34

WTPZ31 KNHC 090239 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
800 PM PDT MON OCT 08 2018

...SERGIO EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD SOON...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 128.6W
ABOUT 1305 MI...2100 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 128.6 WEST. SERGIO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH (6 KM/H). A SLOW TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED COMMENCING ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH (140 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES
(220 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB (28.88 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY SERGIO WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE

2018-10-09 03:34

WTPZ31 KNHC 090239
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Sergio Advisory Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
800 PM PDT Mon Oct 08 2018

...SERGIO EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD SOON...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 128.6W
ABOUT 1305 MI...2100 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sergio was located
near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 128.6 West. Sergio is moving
toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow turn toward the
northeast is expected tonight, and this general motion should
continue during the next several days with an increase in forward
speed commencing on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated during the next several
days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the
Baja California Peninsula by Wednesday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-10-09 03:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 090239 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
0300 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 128.6W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 330SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 128.6W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 128.5W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.5N 127.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.2N 126.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.2N 124.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.7N 122.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 130SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.0N 116.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 120SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

2018-10-09 03:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 090239
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
0300 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 128.6W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 330SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 128.6W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 128.5W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.5N 127.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.2N 126.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.2N 124.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.7N 122.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 130SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.0N 116.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 120SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 29.3N 109.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 35.4N 99.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 128.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

2018-10-08 21:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 082040 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
200 PM PDT MON OCT 08 2018

SERGIO STILL CONSISTS ALMOST ENTIRELY OF A SOLID RING OF DEEP
CONVECTION SURROUNDING A VERY LARGE EYE. A PAIR OF TIMELY ASCAT
PASSES FROM AROUND 1800 UTC SHOW THAT THE HURRICANE WIND FIELD
REMAINS VERY SYMMETRIC WITH A LARGE RMW. ALTHOUGH WE WOULDN'T
EXPECT THAT INSTRUMENT TO CAPTURE THE TRUE MAGNITUDE OF THE
HURRICANE'S MAXIMUM WINDS, THE DATA DOES SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS HAVE
DECREASED AT LEAST A LITTLE SINCE THIS MORNING. UW-CIMSS SATCON
VALUES HAVE ALSO DECREASED, SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED
SLIGHTLY TO 75 KT.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD, AROUND 3 KT. THERE
HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE REASONING BEHIND THE TRACK FORECAST AND
SERGIO SHOULD STILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD IN A DAY OR SO,
APPROACHING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE TOWARD THE SOUTH
BEYOND 24 H, AND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT
DIRECTION AS WELL, BUT NOW LIES JUST NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.

IN THE SHORT-TERM, SERGIO IS STILL FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
WHILE IT MOVES VERY LITTLE AND CONTINUES TO UPWELL COLD WATERS.
BEYOND 24 H, THE HURRICANE SHOULD REACH ADDITIONAL COOLER WATERS TO
THE NORTH, WHICH SHOULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL GRADUAL WEAKENING. IN
GENERAL, THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING SERGIO TO MAINTAIN
ITS INTENSITY A LITTLE LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, SO THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE HIGHER AT 48 H AND
72 H. IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT THE HURRICANE WOULD LIKELY MAINTAIN

2018-10-08 21:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 082040
TCDEP1

Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
200 PM PDT Mon Oct 08 2018

Sergio still consists almost entirely of a solid ring of deep
convection surrounding a very large eye. A pair of timely ASCAT
passes from around 1800 UTC show that the hurricane wind field
remains very symmetric with a large RMW. Although we wouldn't
expect that instrument to capture the true magnitude of the
hurricane's maximum winds, the data does suggest that the winds have
decreased at least a little since this morning. UW-CIMSS SATCON
values have also decreased, so the initial intensity is lowered
slightly to 75 kt.

The hurricane is moving very slowly northward, around 3 kt. There
has been no change to the reasoning behind the track forecast and
Sergio should still accelerate northeastward in a day or so,
approaching the Baja California peninsula by the end of the week.
Nearly all of the models have shifted a little toward the south
beyond 24 h, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted in that
direction as well, but now lies just north of the multi-model
consensus.

In the short-term, Sergio is still forecast to gradually weaken
while it moves very little and continues to upwell cold waters.
Beyond 24 h, the hurricane should reach additional cooler waters to
the north, which should cause additional gradual weakening. In
general, the intensity guidance is forecasting Sergio to maintain
its intensity a little longer than previously forecast, so the NHC
intensity forecast has been adjusted a little higher at 48 h and
72 h. It's worth noting that the hurricane would likely maintain
its intensity longer if it moves a little farther south over warmer
waters, and any further adjustments southward to the track forecast
could have implications on the intensity forecast. By Friday
afternoon, the cyclone should have reached the Baja California
peninsula and more rapid weakening should follow. Although the
low-level center of Sergio will likely quickly dissipate after
reaching mainland Mexico, its mid-level remnants and moisture will
continue northeastward, potentially causing heavy rainfall across
parts of the southwestern United States.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 15.7N 128.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 16.2N 128.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 16.9N 127.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 17.7N 125.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 18.9N 123.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 22.9N 118.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 28.0N 111.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 33.5N 102.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-10-08 21:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 082039
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
200 PM PDT MON OCT 08 2018

...SERGIO DRIFTING NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 128.5W
ABOUT 1310 MI...2105 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 128.5 WEST. SERGIO IS
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH (6 KM/H). A SLOW TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATION TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST BEGINNING TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH (140 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES
(220 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB (28.88 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY SERGIO WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

....
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-10-08 21:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 082038 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
2100 UTC MON OCT 08 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 128.5W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
EYE DIAMETER 70 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 330SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 128.5W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 128.5W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.2N 128.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.9N 127.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.7N 125.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.9N 123.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 22.9N 118.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 100NW.

2018-10-08 21:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 082038
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
2100 UTC MON OCT 08 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 128.5W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
EYE DIAMETER 70 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 330SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 128.5W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 128.5W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.2N 128.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.9N 127.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.7N 125.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.9N 123.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 22.9N 118.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 28.0N 111.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 33.5N 102.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 128.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-10-08 16:32

WTNT82 EGRR 081559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 08.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93L ANALYSED POSITION : 9.1N 27.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.10.2018 0 9.1N 27.5W 1012 19
0000UTC 09.10.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 34.9N 47.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.10.2018 0 34.9N 47.5W 990 44
0000UTC 09.10.2018 12 33.3N 45.3W 986 47
1200UTC 09.10.2018 24 31.4N 44.0W 977 61
0000UTC 10.10.2018 36 29.3N 43.9W 970 58
1200UTC 10.10.2018 48 27.8N 44.1W 966 62
0000UTC 11.10.2018 60 27.5N 43.6W 962 65
1200UTC 11.10.2018 72 28.3N 41.9W 957 70
0000UTC 12.10.2018 84 29.8N 38.7W 947 79
1200UTC 12.10.2018 96 31.6N 33.9W 949 79
0000UTC 13.10.2018 108 32.5N 27.6W 963 73
1200UTC 13.10.2018 120 32.8N 22.2W 980 58
0000UTC 14.10.2018 132 31.8N 19.7W 992 46
1200UTC 14.10.2018 144 30.1N 20.1W 1002 35

HURRICANE MICHAEL ANALYSED POSITION : 20.9N 85.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.10.2018 0 20.9N 85.1W 982 55
0000UTC 09.10.2018 12 22.9N 85.1W 974 61
1200UTC 09.10.2018 24 24.9N 86.0W 973 58
0000UTC 10.10.2018 36 27.0N 86.3W 967 67
1200UTC 10.10.2018 48 29.7N 85.8W 955 75
0000UTC 11.10.2018 60 32.5N 83.9W 973 39
1200UTC 11.10.2018 72 35.3N 80.3W 982 39
0000UTC 12.10.2018 84 38.0N 75.2W 980 48
1200UTC 12.10.2018 96 40.2N 68.4W 973 57
0000UTC 13.10.2018 108 43.4N 58.8W 966 62
1200UTC 13.10.2018 120 46.5N 46.8W 968 57
0000UTC 14.10.2018 132 47.4N 34.2W 983 49
1200UTC 14.10.2018 144 47.3N 24.6W 997 38

HURRICANE SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 128.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.10.2018 0 15.0N 128.5W 973 57
0000UTC 09.10.2018 12 15.6N 128.4W 972 57
1200UTC 09.10.2018 24 16.2N 127.7W 970 58
0000UTC 10.10.2018 36 16.9N 126.2W 970 57
1200UTC 10.10.2018 48 17.9N 124.2W 965 62
0000UTC 11.10.2018 60 19.4N 121.6W 960 66
1200UTC 11.10.2018 72 21.7N 118.6W 956 73
0000UTC 12.10.2018 84 24.2N 115.8W 967 66
1200UTC 12.10.2018 96 26.9N 112.5W 983 52
0000UTC 13.10.2018 108 30.5N 107.0W 1000 28
1200UTC 13.10.2018 120 33.9N 100.6W 998 23
0000UTC 14.10.2018 132 35.2N 95.4W 1000 16
1200UTC 14.10.2018 144 35.9N 90.5W 1008 17

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 12.3N 33.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.10.2018 48 12.3N 33.8W 1007 28
0000UTC 11.10.2018 60 13.0N 35.3W 1007 34
1200UTC 11.10.2018 72 13.9N 36.1W 1006 36
0000UTC 12.10.2018 84 14.8N 36.4W 1007 32
1200UTC 12.10.2018 96 15.5N 37.2W 1010 28
0000UTC 13.10.2018 108 15.9N 38.5W 1011 26
1200UTC 13.10.2018 120 16.2N 40.7W 1013 26
0000UTC 14.10.2018 132 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 31.1N 114.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.10.2018 144 31.1N 114.5W 1006 24


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 081559

2018-10-08 16:32

WTNT80 EGRR 081559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 08.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93L ANALYSED POSITION : 9.1N 27.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.10.2018 9.1N 27.5W WEAK
00UTC 09.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 34.9N 47.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.10.2018 34.9N 47.5W MODERATE
00UTC 09.10.2018 33.3N 45.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.10.2018 31.4N 44.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.10.2018 29.3N 43.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.10.2018 27.8N 44.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.10.2018 27.5N 43.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.10.2018 28.3N 41.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.10.2018 29.8N 38.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.10.2018 31.6N 33.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.10.2018 32.5N 27.6W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 13.10.2018 32.8N 22.2W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 14.10.2018 31.8N 19.7W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 14.10.2018 30.1N 20.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

HURRICANE MICHAEL ANALYSED POSITION : 20.9N 85.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.10.2018 20.9N 85.1W MODERATE
00UTC 09.10.2018 22.9N 85.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.10.2018 24.9N 86.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.10.2018 27.0N 86.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.10.2018 29.7N 85.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 11.10.2018 32.5N 83.9W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 11.10.2018 35.3N 80.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.10.2018 38.0N 75.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.10.2018 40.2N 68.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.10.2018 43.4N 58.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.10.2018 46.5N 46.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.10.2018 47.4N 34.2W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 14.10.2018 47.3N 24.6W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

HURRICANE SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 128.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.10.2018 15.0N 128.5W STRONG
00UTC 09.10.2018 15.6N 128.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.10.2018 16.2N 127.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.10.2018 16.9N 126.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.10.2018 17.9N 124.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.10.2018 19.4N 121.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.10.2018 21.7N 118.6W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.10.2018 24.2N 115.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.10.2018 26.9N 112.5W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 13.10.2018 30.5N 107.0W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 13.10.2018 33.9N 100.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.10.2018 35.2N 95.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.10.2018 35.9N 90.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 12.3N 33.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 10.10.2018 12.3N 33.8W WEAK
00UTC 11.10.2018 13.0N 35.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.10.2018 13.9N 36.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.10.2018 14.8N 36.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.10.2018 15.5N 37.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.10.2018 15.9N 38.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.10.2018 16.2N 40.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 31.1N 114.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 14.10.2018 31.1N 114.5W WEAK


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 081559

2018-10-08 15:33

WTPZ41 KNHC 081448 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
800 AM PDT MON OCT 08 2018

SERGIO'S STRUCTURE HAS REMAINED NEARLY STEADY-STATE FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS. A SOLID RING OF DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDS SERGIO'S GIANT
EYE, AND THERE IS LITTLE EVIDENCE OF ANY CONVECTIVE BANDS. DESPITE
UPWELLING THAT IS PRESUMABLY OCCURING BENEATH THE SLOW MOVING
HURRICANE, CLOUD TOPS HAVE ACTUALLY COOLED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS,
AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE NOT
CHANGED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS THEREFORE BEEN HELD AT 80 KT,
WHICH ALSO AGREES WITH A 1045 UTC UW-CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE.

AS LONG AS SERGIO CAN MAINTAIN ITS ANNULAR STRUCTURE IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF NEGLIGIBLE SHEAR, ONLY VERY GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED, DESPITE PRESUMABLY COOLING WATERS BENEATH THE CYCLONE
ASSOCIATED WITH ITS SLOW MOVEMENT. THE ECMWF AND GFS FORECAST THAT
THE SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS, AND THE
CYCLONE WILL ALSO BE REACHING MUCH COOLER WATERS SHORTLY AFTER THAT
TIME. A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING IS THEREFORE ANTICIPATED BEYOND
48 H, IN LINE WITH THE LATEST INTENSITY CONSENSUS, AND SERGIO IS
FORECAST TO BE A TROPICAL STORM WHEN IT APPROACHES NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER
LANDFALL, AND WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
MAINLAND MEXICO, THOUGH A 5 DAY REMNANT LOW POINT IS STILL SHOWN
FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES.

SERGIO IS MOVING VERY LITTLE RIGHT NOW, AND THE SLOW MOTION WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE DURING THE DAY TODAY. BY TONIGHT, A LARGE TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL CAUSE THE

2018-10-08 15:33

WTPZ41 KNHC 081448
TCDEP1

Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
800 AM PDT Mon Oct 08 2018

Sergio's structure has remained nearly steady-state for the past 24
hours. A solid ring of deep convection surrounds Sergio's giant
eye, and there is little evidence of any convective bands. Despite
upwelling that is presumably occuring beneath the slow moving
hurricane, cloud tops have actually cooled over the past few hours,
and satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have not
changed. The initial intensity has therefore been held at 80 kt,
which also agrees with a 1045 UTC UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate.

As long as Sergio can maintain its annular structure in an
environment of negligible shear, only very gradual weakening is
expected, despite presumably cooling waters beneath the cyclone
associated with its slow movement. The ECMWF and GFS forecast that
the shear will begin to increase in about 24 to 36 hours, and the
cyclone will also be reaching much cooler waters shortly after that
time. A faster rate of weakening is therefore anticipated beyond
48 h, in line with the latest intensity consensus, and Sergio is
forecast to be a tropical storm when it approaches northwestern
Mexico in a few days. The cyclone should weaken quickly after
landfall, and will likely dissipate over the high terrain of
mainland Mexico, though a 5 day remnant low point is still shown
for continuity purposes.

Sergio is moving very little right now, and the slow motion will
likely continue during the day today. By tonight, a large trough
centered over the southwestern United States will cause the
hurricane to accelerate northeastward. The track guidance is in
good agreement on the track of Sergio, although there is still some
uncertainty associated with the timing for when Sergio will reach
the west coast of the Baja California peninsula. Only minor changes
were made to the official track forecast, which lies near the middle
of the guidance envelope and very close to TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 15.3N 128.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 15.9N 128.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 16.6N 127.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 17.4N 126.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 18.6N 124.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 22.3N 119.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 27.5N 113.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 13/1200Z 33.0N 105.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-10-08 15:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 081447 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
800 AM PDT MON OCT 08 2018

...GIANT EYE OF SERGIO DRIFTING SLOWLY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 128.6W
ABOUT 1325 MI...2135 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 128.6 WEST. SERGIO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH (4 KM/H). A SLOW
NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT,
FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BEGINNING
TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH (150 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, AND SERGIO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY
THURSDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150
MILES (240 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB (28.80 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY SERGIO WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE

2018-10-08 15:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 081447
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Sergio Advisory Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
800 AM PDT Mon Oct 08 2018

...GIANT EYE OF SERGIO DRIFTING SLOWLY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 128.6W
ABOUT 1325 MI...2135 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Sergio was located
near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 128.6 West. Sergio is moving
toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow
northward or northeastward drift is expected today and tonight,
followed by an acceleration toward the northeast beginning
tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated during the next several
days, and Sergio is forecast to become a tropical storm by
Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the
Baja California Peninsula by Wednesday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-10-08 15:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 081447 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
1500 UTC MON OCT 08 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 128.6W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
EYE DIAMETER 90 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT.......130NE 110SE 110SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 300SE 360SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 128.6W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 128.5W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 15.9N 128.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.6N 127.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.4N 126.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.6N 124.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 22.3N 119.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.

2018-10-08 15:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 081447
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
1500 UTC MON OCT 08 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 128.6W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
EYE DIAMETER 90 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT.......130NE 110SE 110SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 300SE 360SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 128.6W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 128.5W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 15.9N 128.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.6N 127.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.4N 126.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.6N 124.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 22.3N 119.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 27.5N 113.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 33.0N 105.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 128.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-10-08 10:32

WTPN32 PHNC 081000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 21E (SERGIO) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 15.0N 128.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 128.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 15.7N 128.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 16.4N 127.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 17.2N 126.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 18.2N 124.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 21.4N 120.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 26.5N 114.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 33.0N 106.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
081000Z POSITION NEAR 15.2N 128.2W.
HURRICANE 21E (SERGIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1220 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z
IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081600Z, 082200Z, 090400Z AND 091000Z.//
NNNN

2018-10-08 09:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 080850 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
200 AM PDT MON OCT 08 2018

SERGIO CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE 60 NMI DIAMETER EYE WITH SEVERAL
MESOVORTICIES WITHIN IT. ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN IS QUITE
SYMMETRIC AROUND THE EYE, THE CLOUD TOPS ARE NOT VERY COLD, LIKELY
DUE TO SOME OCEAN UPWELLING BENEATH THE HURRICANE. THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES ARE LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER AND STILL SUPPORT AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KT.

SERGIO IS NOW DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH SERGIO FROM THE NORTH, AND
THAT FEATURE, AND A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
SHOULD CAUSE SERGIO TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. THIS MOTION WITH
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL, AND THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
BASED ON THIS FORECAST, SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY NEAR THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN ABOUT 4 DAYS.

SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ITS STRENGTH OR WEAKEN ONLY SLIGHTLY
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE IT REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
AFTER THAT TIME DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR, DRIER AIR, AND
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. BASED ON THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, SERGIO IS EXPECTED
TO BE A TROPICAL STORM BY THE TIME IT NEARS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY ONCE IT MOVES INLAND.
THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NEAR

2018-10-08 09:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 080850
TCDEP1

Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
200 AM PDT Mon Oct 08 2018

Sergio continues to have a large 60 nmi diameter eye with several
mesovorticies within it. Although the cloud pattern is quite
symmetric around the eye, the cloud tops are not very cold, likely
due to some ocean upwelling beneath the hurricane. The Dvorak
estimates are largely unchanged from earlier and still support an
initial intensity of 80 kt.

Sergio is now drifting northwestward in weak steering currents. A
shortwave trough is expected to approach Sergio from the north, and
that feature, and a large trough over the southwestern United States
should cause Sergio to turn northeastward tonight. This motion with
an increase in forward speed is expected through the remainder of
the week. The models are in good agreement overall, and the NHC
track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.
Based on this forecast, Sergio is expected to be very near the Baja
California peninsula in about 4 days.

Sergio is expected to hold its strength or weaken only slightly
during the next day or so while it remains in a favorable
atmospheric environment. However, steady weakening is expected
after that time due to increasing shear, drier air, and
progressively cooler waters along the forecast track. Based on the
intensity guidance and environmental conditions, Sergio is expected
to be a tropical storm by the time it nears the Baja California
peninsula. The cyclone should weaken quickly once it moves inland.
The NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one and near
the HCCA and IVCN guidance.

Recent ASCAT data was very helpful in analyzing the 34- and 50-kt
wind radii.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 15.2N 128.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 15.7N 128.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 16.4N 127.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 17.2N 126.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 18.2N 124.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 21.4N 120.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 26.5N 114.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA
120H 13/0600Z 33.0N 106.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-10-08 09:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 080849 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
200 AM PDT MON OCT 08 2018

...SERGIO FORECAST TO TURN SHARPLY NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 128.1W
ABOUT 1300 MI...2090 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 128.1 WEST. SERGIO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H). A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, AND THAT MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 90 MPH (150 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES
(260 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB (28.80 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY SERGIO WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

2018-10-08 09:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 080849
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Sergio Advisory Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
200 AM PDT Mon Oct 08 2018

...SERGIO FORECAST TO TURN SHARPLY NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 128.1W
ABOUT 1300 MI...2090 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sergio was located
near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 128.1 West. Sergio is moving
toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn to the northeast
is expected tonight, and that motion with an increase in forward
speed is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow weakening is forecast during the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the
Baja California Peninsula by Wednesday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-10-08 09:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 080850 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
0900 UTC MON OCT 08 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 128.1W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
EYE DIAMETER 60 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT.......140NE 120SE 120SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..450NE 390SE 480SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 128.1W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 128.1W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 15.7N 128.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.4N 127.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.2N 126.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.2N 124.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 130SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 21.4N 120.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.

2018-10-08 09:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 080850
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
0900 UTC MON OCT 08 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 128.1W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
EYE DIAMETER 60 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT.......140NE 120SE 120SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..450NE 390SE 480SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 128.1W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 128.1W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 15.7N 128.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.4N 127.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.2N 126.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.2N 124.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 130SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 21.4N 120.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 26.5N 114.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 33.0N 106.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 128.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-10-08 04:32

WTPN32 PHNC 080400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 21E (SERGIO) WARNING NR 035
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 14.8N 127.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 127.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 15.3N 128.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 16.0N 128.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 16.9N 127.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 17.7N 125.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 20.5N 121.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 25.5N 115.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 32.0N 109.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
080400Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 128.0W.
HURRICANE 21E (SERGIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1222 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
080000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081000Z, 081600Z, 082200Z AND
090400Z.//
NNNN

2018-10-08 04:32

WTNT82 EGRR 080359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 08.10.2018

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 35.8N 49.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.10.2018 0 35.8N 49.5W 988 47
1200UTC 08.10.2018 12 35.0N 47.6W 988 44
0000UTC 09.10.2018 24 33.4N 45.4W 984 47
1200UTC 09.10.2018 36 31.4N 43.8W 978 58
0000UTC 10.10.2018 48 29.2N 43.8W 969 60
1200UTC 10.10.2018 60 27.6N 44.3W 965 62
0000UTC 11.10.2018 72 27.3N 43.8W 959 71
1200UTC 11.10.2018 84 28.5N 41.8W 951 78
0000UTC 12.10.2018 96 30.2N 38.2W 943 80
1200UTC 12.10.2018 108 31.9N 32.4W 943 87
0000UTC 13.10.2018 120 34.0N 24.5W 957 79
1200UTC 13.10.2018 132 39.3N 17.3W 973 67
0000UTC 14.10.2018 144 45.6N 14.8W 964 68

TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL ANALYSED POSITION : 19.6N 85.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.10.2018 0 19.6N 85.1W 998 38
1200UTC 08.10.2018 12 20.8N 84.8W 989 50
0000UTC 09.10.2018 24 22.5N 85.4W 973 61
1200UTC 09.10.2018 36 24.1N 85.8W 969 63
0000UTC 10.10.2018 48 25.8N 86.1W 966 65
1200UTC 10.10.2018 60 27.8N 85.8W 952 74
0000UTC 11.10.2018 72 30.1N 84.4W 941 71
1200UTC 11.10.2018 84 32.5N 82.3W 969 50
0000UTC 12.10.2018 96 34.7N 79.2W 976 52
1200UTC 12.10.2018 108 37.2N 75.0W 977 58
0000UTC 13.10.2018 120 40.5N 68.2W 972 61
1200UTC 13.10.2018 132 44.4N 58.1W 971 59
0000UTC 14.10.2018 144 47.1N 45.7W 986 46

HURRICANE SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 127.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.10.2018 0 14.7N 127.7W 975 53
1200UTC 08.10.2018 12 15.0N 128.3W 979 54
0000UTC 09.10.2018 24 15.6N 128.3W 978 55
1200UTC 09.10.2018 36 16.1N 127.5W 967 60
0000UTC 10.10.2018 48 17.0N 125.9W 966 59
1200UTC 10.10.2018 60 18.0N 124.0W 964 64
0000UTC 11.10.2018 72 19.5N 121.4W 959 68
1200UTC 11.10.2018 84 21.7N 118.8W 957 69
0000UTC 12.10.2018 96 24.1N 115.8W 965 64
1200UTC 12.10.2018 108 26.7N 112.7W 980 54
0000UTC 13.10.2018 120 29.8N 107.6W 998 26
1200UTC 13.10.2018 132 32.0N 103.1W 1000 25
0000UTC 14.10.2018 144 33.7N 96.1W 1001 27

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 12.7N 33.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.10.2018 60 12.7N 33.8W 1007 30
0000UTC 11.10.2018 72 13.9N 34.9W 1006 35
1200UTC 11.10.2018 84 15.2N 35.4W 1005 39
0000UTC 12.10.2018 96 16.4N 35.4W 1005 39
1200UTC 12.10.2018 108 17.5N 35.2W 1008 29
0000UTC 13.10.2018 120 18.1N 35.4W 1010 24
1200UTC 13.10.2018 132 18.3N 36.5W 1013 21
0000UTC 14.10.2018 144 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 080359

2018-10-08 04:32

WTNT80 EGRR 080359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 08.10.2018

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 35.8N 49.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.10.2018 35.8N 49.5W MODERATE
12UTC 08.10.2018 35.0N 47.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.10.2018 33.4N 45.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.10.2018 31.4N 43.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.10.2018 29.2N 43.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.10.2018 27.6N 44.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.10.2018 27.3N 43.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.10.2018 28.5N 41.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.10.2018 30.2N 38.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.10.2018 31.9N 32.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.10.2018 34.0N 24.5W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 13.10.2018 39.3N 17.3W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 14.10.2018 45.6N 14.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL ANALYSED POSITION : 19.6N 85.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.10.2018 19.6N 85.1W MODERATE
12UTC 08.10.2018 20.8N 84.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.10.2018 22.5N 85.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 09.10.2018 24.1N 85.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.10.2018 25.8N 86.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.10.2018 27.8N 85.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 11.10.2018 30.1N 84.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.10.2018 32.5N 82.3W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 12.10.2018 34.7N 79.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.10.2018 37.2N 75.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.10.2018 40.5N 68.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.10.2018 44.4N 58.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.10.2018 47.1N 45.7W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

HURRICANE SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 127.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.10.2018 14.7N 127.7W STRONG
12UTC 08.10.2018 15.0N 128.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.10.2018 15.6N 128.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.10.2018 16.1N 127.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.10.2018 17.0N 125.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.10.2018 18.0N 124.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.10.2018 19.5N 121.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.10.2018 21.7N 118.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.10.2018 24.1N 115.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.10.2018 26.7N 112.7W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 13.10.2018 29.8N 107.6W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 13.10.2018 32.0N 103.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.10.2018 33.7N 96.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 12.7N 33.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 10.10.2018 12.7N 33.8W WEAK
00UTC 11.10.2018 13.9N 34.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.10.2018 15.2N 35.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.10.2018 16.4N 35.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.10.2018 17.5N 35.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.10.2018 18.1N 35.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.10.2018 18.3N 36.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 080359

2018-10-08 03:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 080236 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 07 2018

SERGIO STILL HAS ITS ANNULAR-LIKE STRUCTURE, BUT THE SURROUNDING
CONVECTION IS NOT AS STRONG AS EARLIER TODAY. DVORAK OBJECTIVE AND
SUBJECTIVE NUMBERS ONLY SUPPORT 80 KT AT THIS TIME. LITTLE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS WHILE THE WATERS ARE STILL RELATIVELY WARM. IN ABOUT 2
DAYS, THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS, AND A WEAKENING
TREND AT A FASTER RATE IS ANTICIPATED. SERGIO IS FORECAST TO BE A
TROPICAL STORM BY THE TIME IT IS APPROACHING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA.

SERGIO IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS AND
IS BARELY MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 3 KT. A NORTHWARD DRIFT IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT AFTER THAT TIME, A BROAD
MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE
U.S., AND THIS FLOW PATTERN SHOULD FORCE SERGIO TO RECURVE
NORTHEASTWARD WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS
IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT, BASICALLY ON TOP OF EACH OTHER FOR THE
NEXT 3 DAYS, INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. BEYOND
3 DAYS, MODELS ARE IN LESS AGREEMENT, BUT STILL BRING THE CYCLONE
VERY NEAR THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN 4
DAYS OR SO. THE NHC FORECAST IS NOT VERY DIFFERENT FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHT GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 14.9N 127.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 15.3N 128.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 16.0N 128.3W 75 KT 85 MPH

2018-10-08 03:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 080236
TCDEP1

Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
800 PM PDT Sun Oct 07 2018

Sergio still has its annular-like structure, but the surrounding
convection is not as strong as earlier today. Dvorak objective and
subjective numbers only support 80 kt at this time. Little
significant change in strength is anticipated during the next 12 to
24 hours while the waters are still relatively warm. In about 2
days, the cyclone should encounter cooler waters, and a weakening
trend at a faster rate is anticipated. Sergio is forecast to be a
tropical storm by the time it is approaching the Baja California
peninsula.

Sergio is currently embedded within light steering currents and
is barely moving toward the northwest at 3 kt. A northward drift is
expected during the next 24 hours, but after that time, a broad
mid-level trough is forecast to amplify over the west coast of the
U.S., and this flow pattern should force Sergio to recurve
northeastward with increasing forward speed. The track guidance is
in remarkably good agreement, basically on top of each other for the
next 3 days, increasing the confidence in the track forecast. Beyond
3 days, models are in less agreement, but still bring the cyclone
very near the central portion of the Baja California peninsula in 4
days or so. The NHC forecast is not very different from the
previous one and is in the middle of the tight guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 14.9N 127.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 15.3N 128.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 16.0N 128.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 16.9N 127.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 17.7N 125.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 20.5N 121.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 25.5N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 32.0N 109.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-10-08 03:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 080235
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 07 2018

...SERGIO BARELY MOVING BUT FORECAST TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 127.9W
ABOUT 1295 MI...2090 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 127.9 WEST. SERGIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH (6 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS
ANTICIPATED BY TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH (150 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM) FROM
THE CENTER, AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES (295 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB (28.80 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

....
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-10-08 03:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 080234 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
0300 UTC MON OCT 08 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 127.9W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
EYE DIAMETER 50 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 120SE 120SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..450NE 390SE 300SW 510NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 127.9W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 127.8W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 15.3N 128.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 16.0N 128.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.9N 127.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.7N 125.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.5N 121.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.

2018-10-08 03:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 080234
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
0300 UTC MON OCT 08 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 127.9W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
EYE DIAMETER 50 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 120SE 120SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..450NE 390SE 300SW 510NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 127.9W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 127.8W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 15.3N 128.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 16.0N 128.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.9N 127.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.7N 125.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.5N 121.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 25.5N 115.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 32.0N 109.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 127.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-10-07 21:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 072033 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 07 2018

SERGIO HAS MAINTAINED ITS ANNULAR-LIKE STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THE EYE HAS EXPANDED TO NEARLY 90 N MI ACROSS, AND
THERE IS LITTLE EVIDENCE OF CONVECTIVE BANDING IN MULTIPLE MICROWAVE
OVERPASSES SINCE 1200 UTC THIS MORNING. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM
TAFB AND SAB HAVE DECREASED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY, HOWEVER THE
UW-CIMSS ADT AND SATCON ARE A LITTLE HIGHER, SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO 85 KT.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK OR INTENSITY
FORECASTS. SERGIO IS STILL FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWARD
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IN FACT, THE 12 H FORECAST POINT IS
PRACTICALLY ALREADY INSIDE THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE. BY TUESDAY,
ONE OR MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WORKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
SHOULD CAUSE SERGIO TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD. INTERESTINGLY,
ALTHOUGH THE VARIOUS GLOBAL MODELS SOLUTIONS HAVE CHANGED WITH THIS
FORECAST CYCLE, THE CONSENSUS HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT, SO ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE REQUIRED TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.

SLOW WEAKENING IS STILL ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SERGIO
POSSIBLY MAINTAINS ITS ANNULAR STRUCTURE. BY MID-WEEK, SERGIO WILL
BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS, AND A FASTER RATE OF
WEAKENING IS LIKELY. THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY, AND IS NEAR THE IVCN AND HCCA INTENSITY CONSENSUS
AIDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 14.7N 127.5W 85 KT 100 MPH

2018-10-07 21:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 072033
TCDEP1

Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
200 PM PDT Sun Oct 07 2018

Sergio has maintained its annular-like structure over the past
several hours. The eye has expanded to nearly 90 n mi across, and
there is little evidence of convective banding in multiple microwave
overpasses since 1200 UTC this morning. Dvorak classifications from
TAFB and SAB have decreased since the last advisory, however the
UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON are a little higher, so the initial
intensity has been lowered only slightly to 85 kt.

Very little change has been made to the official track or intensity
forecasts. Sergio is still forecast to slow down and turn northward
over the next day or so. In fact, the 12 h forecast point is
practically already inside the eye of the hurricane. By Tuesday,
one or more shortwave troughs working southward along the western
side of a deep-layer trough centered over the southwestern U.S.
should cause Sergio to accelerate northeastward. Interestingly,
although the various global models solutions have changed with this
forecast cycle, the consensus has been fairly consistent, so only
minor adjustments were required to the official track forecast.

Slow weakening is still anticipated over the next few days as Sergio
possibly maintains its annular structure. By mid-week, Sergio will
be moving over progressively cooler waters, and a faster rate of
weakening is likely. The NHC forecast is very similar to the
previous advisory, and is near the IVCN and HCCA intensity consensus
aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 14.7N 127.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 15.0N 128.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 15.6N 128.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 16.4N 127.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 17.3N 126.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 19.6N 122.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 23.5N 118.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 28.0N 112.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-10-07 21:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 072100 CCA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 34...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 07 2018

CORRECTED TO CHANGE A WORD IN THE HEADLINE

...LARGE EYE OF SERGIO SLOWLY MOVING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 127.5W
ABOUT 1280 MI...2060 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 127.5 WEST. SERGIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO
SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWARD BY TONIGHT, AND THEN TURN NORTHEASTWARD
ON MONDAY. A FASTER NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS ANTICIPATED BY TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH (155 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, BUT SERGIO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE INTO
MID-WEEK.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES (295 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 MB (28.68 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

....
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-10-07 21:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 072032
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 07 2018

...LARGE EYE OF SERGIO SLOWING MOVING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 127.5W
ABOUT 1280 MI...2060 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 127.5 WEST. SERGIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO
SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWARD BY TONIGHT, AND THEN TURN NORTHEASTWARD
ON MONDAY. A FASTER NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS ANTICIPATED BY TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH (155 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, BUT SERGIO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE INTO
MID-WEEK.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES (295 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 MB (28.68 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

....
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-10-07 21:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 072032 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
2100 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 127.5W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB
EYE DIAMETER 85 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 120SE 120SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..450NE 360SE 360SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 127.5W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 127.3W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 15.0N 128.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 15.6N 128.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.4N 127.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.3N 126.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.6N 122.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.

2018-10-07 21:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 072032
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
2100 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 127.5W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB
EYE DIAMETER 85 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 120SE 120SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..450NE 360SE 360SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 127.5W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 127.3W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 15.0N 128.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 15.6N 128.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.4N 127.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.3N 126.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.6N 122.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 23.5N 118.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 28.0N 112.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 127.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-10-07 21:32

WTPN32 PHNC 072200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 21E (SERGIO) WARNING NR 034
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 14.6N 127.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 127.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 15.0N 128.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 15.6N 128.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 16.4N 127.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 17.3N 126.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 19.6N 122.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 23.5N 118.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 28.0N 112.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
072200Z POSITION NEAR 14.7N 127.6W.
HURRICANE 21E (SERGIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1220 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 25
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080400Z, 081000Z, 081600Z AND 082200Z.//
NNNN

2018-10-07 16:32

WTNT82 EGRR 071559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 07.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 31.1N 24.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.10.2018 0 31.1N 24.8W 1010 28
0000UTC 08.10.2018 12 32.2N 24.1W 1010 26
1200UTC 08.10.2018 24 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14L ANALYSED POSITION : 18.7N 86.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.10.2018 0 18.7N 86.7W 1003 32
0000UTC 08.10.2018 12 19.5N 85.6W 1000 34
1200UTC 08.10.2018 24 20.5N 85.4W 996 44
0000UTC 09.10.2018 36 22.2N 85.2W 979 59
1200UTC 09.10.2018 48 23.8N 85.5W 974 59
0000UTC 10.10.2018 60 25.5N 85.5W 971 59
1200UTC 10.10.2018 72 27.5N 85.1W 963 69
0000UTC 11.10.2018 84 29.5N 83.7W 945 79
1200UTC 11.10.2018 96 31.5N 81.8W 968 62
0000UTC 12.10.2018 108 33.4N 78.9W 960 66
1200UTC 12.10.2018 120 35.5N 75.2W 953 75
0000UTC 13.10.2018 132 38.5N 69.1W 945 77
1200UTC 13.10.2018 144 43.3N 59.8W 947 76

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 36.4N 51.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.10.2018 0 36.4N 51.6W 988 43
0000UTC 08.10.2018 12 36.0N 49.4W 989 43
1200UTC 08.10.2018 24 35.3N 47.3W 988 50
0000UTC 09.10.2018 36 33.8N 45.2W 985 47
1200UTC 09.10.2018 48 31.7N 43.1W 978 57
0000UTC 10.10.2018 60 29.5N 42.4W 968 61
1200UTC 10.10.2018 72 27.8N 42.4W 962 70
0000UTC 11.10.2018 84 27.4N 42.0W 959 68
1200UTC 11.10.2018 96 28.0N 40.5W 950 79
0000UTC 12.10.2018 108 29.5N 36.9W 944 86
1200UTC 12.10.2018 120 31.3N 31.7W 949 79
0000UTC 13.10.2018 132 32.6N 25.5W 956 79
1200UTC 13.10.2018 144 33.0N 20.1W 971 65

HURRICANE SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 126.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.10.2018 0 14.7N 126.6W 963 65
0000UTC 08.10.2018 12 14.9N 127.7W 966 64
1200UTC 08.10.2018 24 15.3N 128.2W 964 62
0000UTC 09.10.2018 36 16.1N 128.3W 962 63
1200UTC 09.10.2018 48 16.7N 127.5W 959 69
0000UTC 10.10.2018 60 17.4N 126.0W 961 65
1200UTC 10.10.2018 72 18.4N 124.1W 959 67
0000UTC 11.10.2018 84 20.2N 121.5W 959 67
1200UTC 11.10.2018 96 22.4N 118.8W 959 66
0000UTC 12.10.2018 108 25.0N 115.5W 968 65
1200UTC 12.10.2018 120 28.7N 112.0W 975 57
0000UTC 13.10.2018 132 33.1N 108.9W 1000 31
1200UTC 13.10.2018 144 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 12.1N 35.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 11.10.2018 84 12.5N 35.6W 1008 33
1200UTC 11.10.2018 96 13.7N 37.5W 1007 34
0000UTC 12.10.2018 108 14.7N 37.7W 1005 38
1200UTC 12.10.2018 120 15.5N 37.5W 1004 46
0000UTC 13.10.2018 132 16.1N 38.4W 1006 38
1200UTC 13.10.2018 144 16.4N 40.4W 1010 29

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 31.4N 113.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.10.2018 144 31.4N 113.9W 1005 31


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 071559

2018-10-07 16:32

WTNT80 EGRR 071559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 07.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 31.1N 24.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.10.2018 31.1N 24.8W WEAK
00UTC 08.10.2018 32.2N 24.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14L ANALYSED POSITION : 18.7N 86.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.10.2018 18.7N 86.7W WEAK
00UTC 08.10.2018 19.5N 85.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2018 20.5N 85.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.10.2018 22.2N 85.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 09.10.2018 23.8N 85.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.10.2018 25.5N 85.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.10.2018 27.5N 85.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.10.2018 29.5N 83.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 11.10.2018 31.5N 81.8W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 12.10.2018 33.4N 78.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.10.2018 35.5N 75.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.10.2018 38.5N 69.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.10.2018 43.3N 59.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 36.4N 51.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.10.2018 36.4N 51.6W MODERATE
00UTC 08.10.2018 36.0N 49.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2018 35.3N 47.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.10.2018 33.8N 45.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.10.2018 31.7N 43.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.10.2018 29.5N 42.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.10.2018 27.8N 42.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.10.2018 27.4N 42.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.10.2018 28.0N 40.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.10.2018 29.5N 36.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.10.2018 31.3N 31.7W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.10.2018 32.6N 25.5W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.10.2018 33.0N 20.1W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY

HURRICANE SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 126.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.10.2018 14.7N 126.6W STRONG
00UTC 08.10.2018 14.9N 127.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2018 15.3N 128.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.10.2018 16.1N 128.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.10.2018 16.7N 127.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.10.2018 17.4N 126.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.10.2018 18.4N 124.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.10.2018 20.2N 121.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.10.2018 22.4N 118.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.10.2018 25.0N 115.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.10.2018 28.7N 112.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.10.2018 33.1N 108.9W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 13.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 12.1N 35.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 11.10.2018 12.5N 35.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.10.2018 13.7N 37.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.10.2018 14.7N 37.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.10.2018 15.5N 37.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.10.2018 16.1N 38.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.10.2018 16.4N 40.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 31.4N 113.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 13.10.2018 31.4N 113.9W WEAK


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 071559

2018-10-07 15:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 071437 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
800 AM PDT SUN OCT 07 2018

SOMEWHAT QUICKLY AND UNEXPECTEDLY, SERGIO TOOK ON THE APPEARANCE OF
AN ANNULAR HURRICANE OVERNIGHT. THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE EXPANDED,
NEARLY DOUBLING IN SIZE (NOW 70 N MI ACROSS), AND MOST OF THE
BANDING FEATURES DISAPPEARED. HOWEVER, IR IMAGERY OVER THE PAST
HOUR OR TWO INDICATES THAT THE HURRICANE IS STILL SOMEWHAT
ASYMMETRICAL, SUGGESTING THAT THE HURRICANE MAY NOT HAVE A CLASSICAL
ANNULAR STRUCTURE, AT LEAST NOT YET. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO 90 KT, IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.

THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE DUE WEST WITH AN INITIAL FORWARD
SPEED OF 7 KT. SERGIO IS STILL EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN FIRST
NORTHWARD, AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY
MID-WEEK, A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD OFF COAST OF
CALIFORNIA SHOULD CAUSE SERGIO TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, AND ONLY SMALL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST TO MOVE IT CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

AS LONG AS SERGIO CAN MAINTAIN ITS ANNULAR-LIKE STRUCTURE, ONLY SLOW
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO CONTINUED EFFECTS OF OCEAN UPWELLING
COMBINED WITH THE SLOW FORWARD MOTION OF THE HURRICANE. BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, SERGIO WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER SSTS
LOCATED WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, AND A FASTER
WEAKENING RATE IS FORECAST. GIVEN THE LOWER INITIAL INTENSITY OF

2018-10-07 15:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 071437
TCDEP1

Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
800 AM PDT Sun Oct 07 2018

Somewhat quickly and unexpectedly, Sergio took on the appearance of
an annular hurricane overnight. The eye of the hurricane expanded,
nearly doubling in size (now 70 n mi across), and most of the
banding features disappeared. However, IR imagery over the past
hour or two indicates that the hurricane is still somewhat
asymmetrical, suggesting that the hurricane may not have a classical
annular structure, at least not yet. The initial intensity has been
lowered to 90 kt, in agreement with the latest current intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB.

The hurricane continues to move due west with an initial forward
speed of 7 kt. Sergio is still expected to slow down and turn first
northward, and then northeastward over the next couple of days. By
mid-week, a mid-level shortwave trough moving southward off coast of
California should cause Sergio to accelerate northeastward toward
the Baja California peninsula. The global models remain in fairly
good agreement on the track of the cyclone through the middle of
next week, and only small changes were made to the NHC track
forecast to move it closer to the model consensus.

As long as Sergio can maintain its annular-like structure, only slow
weakening is anticipated due to continued effects of ocean upwelling
combined with the slow forward motion of the hurricane. By the end
of the forecast period, Sergio will be moving over much cooler SSTs
located west of the Baja California peninsula, and a faster
weakening rate is forecast. Given the lower initial intensity of
Sergio, the official intensity forecast is a little lower for the
first two days of the forecast, but is very similar beyond that
time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 14.5N 126.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 14.8N 127.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 15.2N 128.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 15.9N 128.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 16.7N 127.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 18.8N 123.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 22.0N 119.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 26.5N 114.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-10-07 15:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 071436
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
800 AM PDT SUN OCT 07 2018

...SERGIO A LITTLE WEAKER BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 126.8W
ABOUT 1245 MI...2005 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 126.8 WEST. SERGIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H). SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO
SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWARD BY TONIGHT, AND THEN TURN NORTHEASTWARD
ON MONDAY. A FASTER NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS ANTICIPATED BY TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH (165
KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, BUT SERGIO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE INTO
MID-WEEK.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES (295 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB (28.56 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.

....
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-10-07 15:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 071436 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
1500 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 126.8W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 120SE 120SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..450NE 360SE 360SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 126.8W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 126.6W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 14.8N 127.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 15.2N 128.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 15.9N 128.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.7N 127.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.8N 123.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.

2018-10-07 15:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 071436
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
1500 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 126.8W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 120SE 120SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..450NE 360SE 360SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 126.8W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 126.6W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 14.8N 127.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 15.2N 128.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 15.9N 128.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.7N 127.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.8N 123.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 22.0N 119.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 26.5N 114.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 126.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-10-07 12:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 070851 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
200 AM PDT SUN OCT 07 2018

...SERGIO STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE...
............................................................EXPECTED
TO
MAKE
A
SHARP
NORTHEASTWARD
TURN
ON
MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 126.1W
ABOUT 1205 MI...1935 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 126.1 WEST. SERGIO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TODAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND MAKE A
SHARP NORTHEASTWARD TURN ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH (185 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SERGIO IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES (65 KM) FROM THE
CENTER, AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195
MILES (315 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB (28.35 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

2018-10-07 09:34

WTPZ41 KNHC 070852 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
200 AM PDT SUN OCT 07 2018

SERGIO APPEARS TO HAVE LOST SOME STRENGTH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN INTENSITY, AND THE EYE
APPEARS LARGER AND MORE RAGGED IN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED A LITTLE TO 100 KT, WHICH IS NEAR THE
UPPER END OF THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, AND THIS COULD BE A
LITTLE GENEROUS.

THE HURRICANE IS STILL MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 7 KT, AND A SLOW
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS. THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATER TODAY,
AND SERGIO WILL LIKELY DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. AFTER THAT TIME, A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE SERGIO TO MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK MODELS ARE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED, AND ONLY SMALL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
NHC FORECAST.

THE PREDICTED SLOW MOTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL LIKELY CAUSE OCEAN UPWELLING, WHICH COULD
RESULT IN CONTINUED SLOW WEAKENING IN THE SHORT TERM. IN THE LONGER
RANGE, THE MODELS SHOW SERGIO MOVING INTO AN ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT
OF DRIER AIR AND STRONGER SHEAR AND OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 26 DEG
C, WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THE WEAKENING TREND OR EVEN ACCELERATE IT.
THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE,
AND IT IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE IVCN AND HCCA MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 14.6N 126.1W 100 KT 115 MPH

2018-10-07 09:34

WTPZ41 KNHC 070852
TCDEP1

Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
200 AM PDT Sun Oct 07 2018

Sergio appears to have lost some strength during the past several
hours. Deep convection has decreased in intensity, and the eye
appears larger and more ragged in recent satellite images. The
initial intensity is lowered a little to 100 kt, which is near the
upper end of the satellite intensity estimates, and this could be a
little generous.

The hurricane is still moving westward at about 7 kt, and a slow
westward or west-northwestward motion is expected for the next 12
hours. The steering currents are expected to weaken later today,
and Sergio will likely drift northwestward and northward tonight and
Monday. After that time, a large trough over the southwestern
United States is expected to cause Sergio to move toward the
northeast with increasing forward speed. The track models are
tightly clustered, and only small changes were made to the previous
NHC forecast.

The predicted slow motion of the tropical cyclone during the
next couple of days will likely cause ocean upwelling, which could
result in continued slow weakening in the short term. In the longer
range, the models show Sergio moving into an atmospheric environment
of drier air and stronger shear and over waters cooler than 26 deg
C, which should continue the weakening trend or even accelerate it.
The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one,
and it is in best agreement with the IVCN and HCCA models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 14.6N 126.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 14.7N 127.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 15.0N 127.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 15.7N 127.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 16.5N 127.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 18.5N 124.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 22.0N 119.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 26.6N 114.2W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-10-07 09:34

WTPZ31 KNHC 070851
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
200 AM PDT SUN OCT 07 2018

...SERGIO STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE...
.............EXPECTED TO MAKE A SHARP NORTHEASTWARD TURN ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 126.1W
ABOUT 1205 MI...1935 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 126.1 WEST. SERGIO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TODAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND MAKE A
SHARP NORTHEASTWARD TURN ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH (185 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SERGIO IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES (65 KM) FROM THE
CENTER, AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195
MILES (315 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB (28.35 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

............
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-10-07 09:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 070851 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
0900 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 126.1W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT.......140NE 120SE 110SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..450NE 360SE 360SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 126.1W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 125.8W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 14.7N 127.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 15.0N 127.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 15.7N 127.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.5N 127.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.5N 124.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 120SW 110NW.

2018-10-07 09:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 070851
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
0900 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 126.1W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT.......140NE 120SE 110SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..450NE 360SE 360SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 126.1W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 125.8W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 14.7N 127.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 15.0N 127.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 15.7N 127.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.5N 127.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.5N 124.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 120SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 22.0N 119.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 26.6N 114.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 126.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-10-07 05:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 070237 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 06 2018

...SERGIO LUMBERING ALONG WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC...
............................................EXPECTED TO TURN SHARPLY
NORTHEASTWARD
ON
MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 125.4W
ABOUT 1165 MI...1875 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 125.4 WEST. SERGIO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND
MAKE A SHARP NORTHEASTWARD TURN ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH (195 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SERGIO IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES (65 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 MILES
(315 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 956 MB (28.23 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

2018-10-07 04:32

WTNT82 EGRR 070359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 07.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 31.7N 25.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.10.2018 0 31.7N 25.7W 1010 27
1200UTC 07.10.2018 12 31.4N 24.7W 1010 26
0000UTC 08.10.2018 24 31.7N 24.4W 1010 26
1200UTC 08.10.2018 36 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14L ANALYSED POSITION : 17.4N 86.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.10.2018 0 17.4N 86.9W 1005 28
1200UTC 07.10.2018 12 18.2N 86.1W 1004 31
0000UTC 08.10.2018 24 19.2N 85.8W 1001 34
1200UTC 08.10.2018 36 20.1N 85.0W 997 43
0000UTC 09.10.2018 48 22.5N 84.8W 983 55
1200UTC 09.10.2018 60 24.2N 85.1W 976 56
0000UTC 10.10.2018 72 26.2N 85.3W 972 60
1200UTC 10.10.2018 84 28.2N 84.8W 966 65
0000UTC 11.10.2018 96 30.3N 83.1W 961 50
1200UTC 11.10.2018 108 32.4N 80.4W 971 60
0000UTC 12.10.2018 120 34.5N 76.9W 962 67
1200UTC 12.10.2018 132 36.9N 71.7W 942 76
0000UTC 13.10.2018 144 40.0N 64.0W 934 83

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 37.5N 53.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.10.2018 0 37.5N 53.6W 986 48
1200UTC 07.10.2018 12 36.3N 51.6W 987 44
0000UTC 08.10.2018 24 35.9N 49.6W 989 45
1200UTC 08.10.2018 36 35.3N 47.4W 989 46
0000UTC 09.10.2018 48 33.7N 45.7W 986 55
1200UTC 09.10.2018 60 31.4N 43.6W 980 52
0000UTC 10.10.2018 72 28.8N 43.2W 970 62
1200UTC 10.10.2018 84 26.9N 43.0W 963 71
0000UTC 11.10.2018 96 26.4N 42.5W 962 73
1200UTC 11.10.2018 108 27.1N 41.0W 957 76
0000UTC 12.10.2018 120 28.7N 38.0W 955 81
1200UTC 12.10.2018 132 30.4N 34.5W 960 67
0000UTC 13.10.2018 144 30.9N 30.8W 970 64

HURRICANE SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 14.4N 125.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.10.2018 0 14.4N 125.1W 940 81
1200UTC 07.10.2018 12 14.5N 126.5W 945 76
0000UTC 08.10.2018 24 14.9N 127.4W 949 74
1200UTC 08.10.2018 36 15.4N 128.0W 956 66
0000UTC 09.10.2018 48 16.1N 127.9W 957 70
1200UTC 09.10.2018 60 16.8N 127.0W 948 73
0000UTC 10.10.2018 72 17.6N 125.4W 949 71
1200UTC 10.10.2018 84 18.7N 123.3W 949 77
0000UTC 11.10.2018 96 20.3N 120.7W 952 71
1200UTC 11.10.2018 108 22.3N 118.4W 961 66
0000UTC 12.10.2018 120 24.4N 115.5W 969 65
1200UTC 12.10.2018 132 27.3N 111.8W 972 64
0000UTC 13.10.2018 144 31.2N 108.0W 996 29

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 11.8N 35.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 11.10.2018 96 12.6N 35.6W 1008 33
1200UTC 11.10.2018 108 13.5N 37.2W 1009 31
0000UTC 12.10.2018 120 14.6N 37.7W 1010 29
1200UTC 12.10.2018 132 15.2N 38.4W 1011 29
0000UTC 13.10.2018 144 15.5N 39.4W 1012 25


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 070359

2018-10-07 04:32

WTNT80 EGRR 070359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 07.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 31.7N 25.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.10.2018 31.7N 25.7W WEAK
12UTC 07.10.2018 31.4N 24.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.10.2018 31.7N 24.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14L ANALYSED POSITION : 17.4N 86.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.10.2018 17.4N 86.9W WEAK
12UTC 07.10.2018 18.2N 86.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.10.2018 19.2N 85.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2018 20.1N 85.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.10.2018 22.5N 84.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 09.10.2018 24.2N 85.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.10.2018 26.2N 85.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.10.2018 28.2N 84.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.10.2018 30.3N 83.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.10.2018 32.4N 80.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.10.2018 34.5N 76.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.10.2018 36.9N 71.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 13.10.2018 40.0N 64.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 37.5N 53.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.10.2018 37.5N 53.6W MODERATE
12UTC 07.10.2018 36.3N 51.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.10.2018 35.9N 49.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2018 35.3N 47.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.10.2018 33.7N 45.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.10.2018 31.4N 43.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.10.2018 28.8N 43.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.10.2018 26.9N 43.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.10.2018 26.4N 42.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.10.2018 27.1N 41.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.10.2018 28.7N 38.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.10.2018 30.4N 34.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.10.2018 30.9N 30.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

HURRICANE SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 14.4N 125.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.10.2018 14.4N 125.1W INTENSE
12UTC 07.10.2018 14.5N 126.5W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.10.2018 14.9N 127.4W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.10.2018 15.4N 128.0W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.10.2018 16.1N 127.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.10.2018 16.8N 127.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.10.2018 17.6N 125.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.10.2018 18.7N 123.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.10.2018 20.3N 120.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.10.2018 22.3N 118.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.10.2018 24.4N 115.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.10.2018 27.3N 111.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.10.2018 31.2N 108.0W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 11.8N 35.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 11.10.2018 12.6N 35.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 11.10.2018 13.5N 37.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.10.2018 14.6N 37.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.10.2018 15.2N 38.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.10.2018 15.5N 39.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 070359

2018-10-07 03:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 070301 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 06 2018

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE HAS BEEN NOTED IN SERGIO'S SATELLITE
PRESENTATION THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS OTHER THAN CLOUD TOPS HAVE
WARMED SLIGHTLY. THE 30-NMI-WIDE EYE REMAINS QUITE DISTINCT AND
OUTFLOW IS STILL VERY IMPRESSIVE IN ALL QUADRANTS. HOWEVER, HE
WARMING TOPS HAVE RESULTED IN SLIGHTLY LOWER SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES, SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO 105 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

SERGIO IS LUMBERING ALONG TOWARD THE WEST, OR 270/06 KT. THERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.
SERGIO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK DEEP-LAYER RIDGE FOR THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, A STRONG TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG
SOUTHWARD OFF THE COASTS OF CALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA, WHICH
WILL ERODE THE RIDGE AND CAUSE SERGIO TO MAKE A SHARP NORTHEASTWARD
TURN AND ACCELERATE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LATEST NHC
TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS DEVELOPING STEERING
FLOW PATTERN, AND THERE IS VERY LITTLE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN THE
MODELS. THE SPEED DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION HAVE
DECREASED ON THIS FORECAST CYCLE, SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS HAD TO BE
MADE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK LIES
CLOSE THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NEAR A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS
TRACK MODELS.

OCEAN TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE CYCLONE ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO COLD UPWELLING BENEATH THE HURRICANE, SO

2018-10-07 03:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 070301
TCDEP1

Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
800 PM PDT Sat Oct 06 2018

Little overall change has been noted in Sergio's satellite
presentation the past several hours other than cloud tops have
warmed slightly. The 30-nmi-wide eye remains quite distinct and
outflow is still very impressive in all quadrants. However, he
warming tops have resulted in slightly lower satellite intensity
estimates from all agencies, so the initial intensity has been
lowered to 105 kt for this advisory.

Sergio is lumbering along toward the west, or 270/06 kt. There is no
significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning.
Sergio should continue to move slowly westward around the
southwestern periphery of a weak deep-layer ridge for the next day
or so. By early next week, a strong trough is forecast to dig
southward off the coasts of California and Baja California, which
will erode the ridge and cause Sergio to make a sharp northeastward
turn and accelerate throughout the forecast period. The latest NHC
track guidance remains in good agreement on this developing steering
flow pattern, and there is very little cross-track spread in the
models. The speed differences noted in the previous discussion have
decreased on this forecast cycle, so only minor tweaks had to be
made to the previous advisory track. The new forecast track lies
close the previous one and near a blend of the various consensus
track models.

Ocean temperatures beneath the cyclone are forecast to decrease over
the next few days due to cold upwelling beneath the hurricane, so
gradual weakening is expected for the next 3 days. After that, more
rapid weakening is forecast due to increasing southwesterly
vertical wind shear ahead of a a deep-layer trough. The NHC
intensity forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and the
IVCN consensus model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 14.5N 125.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 14.5N 126.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 14.8N 127.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 15.4N 127.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 16.1N 127.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 18.0N 124.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 20.9N 120.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 25.6N 115.1W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-07 03:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 070237
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 06 2018

...SERGIO LUMBERING ALONG WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC...
..............EXPECTED TO TURN SHARPLY NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 125.4W
ABOUT 1165 MI...1875 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 125.4 WEST. SERGIO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND
MAKE A SHARP NORTHEASTWARD TURN ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH (195 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SERGIO IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES (65 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 MILES
(315 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 956 MB (28.23 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

.............
FORECASTER STEWART

2018-10-07 03:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 070235 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
0300 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 125.4W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT.......140NE 120SE 110SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..450NE 360SE 300SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 125.4W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 125.1W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 14.5N 126.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 14.8N 127.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 15.4N 127.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 16.1N 127.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 18.0N 124.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 120SW 110NW.

2018-10-07 03:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 070235
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
0300 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 125.4W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT.......140NE 120SE 110SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..450NE 360SE 300SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 125.4W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 125.1W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 14.5N 126.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 14.8N 127.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 15.4N 127.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 16.1N 127.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 18.0N 124.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 120SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 20.9N 120.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 25.6N 115.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 125.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

2018-10-06 21:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 062035 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 06 2018

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN SERGIO'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION
TODAY. THE LARGE EYE REMAINS WELL DEFINED IN VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY, BUT THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT WARMING OF THE
SURROUNDING CLOUD TOPS SINCE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, THE LATEST
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT
AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 110 KT. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION, THE PRIMARY FACTOR REGARDING SERGIO'S FUTURE INTENSITY
WILL BE OCEAN TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, SINCE THE OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FAVORABLE. SERGIO SHOULD REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO, BUT SOME UPWELLING OF COOLER WATER IS POSSIBLE AS
SERGIO SLOWS DOWN AND MAKES ITS PREDICTED SHARP TURN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY, AND THIS IS FORECAST TO CAUSE SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING
DURING THAT TIME. AFTER 72 HOURS, COOLER WATERS, INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR, AND LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO RESULT IN ADDITIONAL WEAKENING. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE HIGHER STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND THE
CONSENSUS AIDS, AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

SERGIO IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT. THE HURRICANE
SHOULD TURN WESTWARD TONIGHT BEFORE MAKING A SHARP NORTHEASTWARD
TURN AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTH OF SERGIO
AND ERODES THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK,
SERGIO SHOULD MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH.

2018-10-06 21:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 062035
TCDEP1

Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
200 PM PDT Sat Oct 06 2018

There has been little change in Sergio's satellite presentation
today. The large eye remains well defined in visible and infrared
satellite imagery, but there has been a slight warming of the
surrounding cloud tops since this morning. However, the latest
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates still support
an initial wind speed of 110 kt. As mentioned in the previous
discussion, the primary factor regarding Sergio's future intensity
will be ocean temperatures beneath the cyclone over the next few
days, since the other environmental conditions are expected to
remain favorable. Sergio should remain over warm waters during the
next day or so, but some upwelling of cooler water is possible as
Sergio slows down and makes its predicted sharp turn Sunday night
and Monday, and this is forecast to cause some gradual weakening
during that time. After 72 hours, cooler waters, increasing
southwesterly shear, and less favorable thermodynamic conditions are
likely to result in additional weakening. The NHC intensity
forecast lies between the higher statistical guidance and the
consensus aids, and is very similar to the previous advisory.

Sergio is moving west-southwestward at about 6 kt. The hurricane
should turn westward tonight before making a sharp northeastward
turn as a mid-level trough drops southward to the north of Sergio
and erodes the western portion of the ridge. By early next week,
Sergio should move northeastward ahead of the aforementioned trough.
The track guidance is in good agreement on the overall scenario but
there continues to be differences in the future forward speed of the
hurricane. The guidance has once again trended a little slower this
cycle, and the new NHC track lies between the previous forecast and
the latest consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 14.6N 124.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 14.5N 125.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 14.6N 126.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 15.1N 127.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 15.7N 127.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 17.5N 125.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 20.0N 121.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 24.2N 116.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-06 21:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 062033 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
2100 UTC SAT OCT 06 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 124.7W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT.......140NE 120SE 110SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..450NE 360SE 300SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 124.7W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 124.4W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 14.5N 125.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 14.6N 126.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 15.1N 127.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 15.7N 127.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.5N 125.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

2018-10-06 15:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 061444 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
800 AM PDT SAT OCT 06 2018

SERGIO HAS REMAINED NEARLY STEADY-STATE SINCE LAST NIGHT AND THE
CLEAR EYE IS STILL SURROUNDED BY VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 110 KT, BASED ON A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE PRIMARY MODERATING FACTOR
FOR SERGIO'S INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL LIKELY BE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SINCE GFS AND ECMWF SHIPS DIAGNOSTICS SUGGEST
THAT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE. SERGIO IS NOW
MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 6 KT, LIKELY JUST FAST ENOUGH TO
OUTRUN ITS OWN COLD WAKE. LITTLE CHANGE IN SERGIO'S INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE MOVING AT AROUND THIS SAME FORWARD SPEED. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK, A SLOWER MOTION WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME WEAKENING TO OCCUR, AS
SERGIO BECOMES TRAPPED OVER COLDER UPWELLED WATERS, WITH FURTHER
WEAKENING LIKELY WHEN SERGIO REACHES MUCH COOLER WATERS TO THE
NORTH. THE OCEAN-COUPLED REGIONAL MODELS SHOW MORE WEAKENING THAN
CURRENTLY INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST, WHILE DSHP AND LGEM
SHOW A STRONGER STORM, PROBABLY IN PART BECAUSE THOSE MODELS USE A
CONSTANT OCEAN FIELD. CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT
VERY HIGH, AND IT IS LIKELY THAT THE FASTER SERGIO MOVES, THE
STRONGER IT WILL BE.

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL TRACK
OF SERGIO THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT THEY DISAGREE ON HOW
QUICKLY SERGIO WILL MOVE ALONG THAT PATH. SERGIO IS STILL FORECAST
TO MAKE A SHARP U-TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS AND

2018-10-06 15:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 061444
TCDEP1

Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
800 AM PDT Sat Oct 06 2018

Sergio has remained nearly steady-state since last night and the
clear eye is still surrounded by very cold cloud tops. The initial
intensity remains 110 kt, based on a blend of subjective and
objective Dvorak intensity estimates. The primary moderating factor
for Sergio's intensity over the next few days will likely be sea
surface temperatures since GFS and ECMWF SHIPS diagnostics suggest
that the environment will be otherwise favorable. Sergio is now
moving west-southwestward at around 6 kt, likely just fast enough to
outrun its own cold wake. Little change in Sergio's intensity is
expected for the next day or so while the hurricane is forecast to
continue moving at around this same forward speed. By early next
week, a slower motion will likely cause some weakening to occur, as
Sergio becomes trapped over colder upwelled waters, with further
weakening likely when Sergio reaches much cooler waters to the
north. The ocean-coupled regional models show more weakening than
currently indicated by the official forecast, while DSHP and LGEM
show a stronger storm, probably in part because those models use a
constant ocean field. Confidence in the intensity forecast is not
very high, and it is likely that the faster Sergio moves, the
stronger it will be.

The global models are in fairly good agreement on the general track
of Sergio through the middle of next week, but they disagree on how
quickly Sergio will move along that path. Sergio is still forecast
to make a sharp u-turn toward the northeast over the next 3 days and
then accelerate in that direction between 72 and 120 h. Most of the
models are showing a slightly slower forward speed than earlier
cycles. However there are still large differences in their
representation of a shortwave trough off the coast of California
that will cause Sergio's acceleration, and the model spread remains
high. The new official track forecast is similar to the previous
advisory but generally shows a slower speed, especially after 48 h,
in line with the latest track consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 14.7N 124.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 14.5N 125.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 14.5N 126.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 14.9N 126.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 15.5N 127.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 17.2N 125.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 19.5N 122.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 23.6N 117.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-10-06 15:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 061442
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
800 AM PDT SAT OCT 06 2018

...SERGIO EXPECTED TO MAKE A U-TURN EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 124.0W
ABOUT 1080 MI...1740 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 124.0 WEST. SERGIO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). THE HURRICANE IS
FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND MAKE A SHARP NORTHEASTWARD TURN BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH (205 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SERGIO IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY,
AND SLOW WEAKENING POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER,
SERGIO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES (65 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES
(295 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB (28.06 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.

....
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-10-06 15:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 061442 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
1500 UTC SAT OCT 06 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 124.0W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 120SE 120SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..450NE 330SE 300SW 450NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 124.0W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 123.7W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 14.5N 125.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 14.5N 126.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 14.9N 126.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 15.5N 127.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 17.2N 125.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

2018-10-06 15:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 061442
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
1500 UTC SAT OCT 06 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 124.0W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 120SE 120SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..450NE 330SE 300SW 450NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 124.0W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 123.7W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 14.5N 125.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 14.5N 126.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 14.9N 126.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 15.5N 127.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 17.2N 125.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 120SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 19.5N 122.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 23.6N 117.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 124.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-10-06 09:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 060845 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
200 AM PDT SAT OCT 06 2018

SERGIO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. IT
STILL HAS A 25-30 N MI WIDE EYE SURROUNDED BY COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS,
AND WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE IN INTENSITY ESTIMATES, THE ESTIMATED
MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN 110 KT. SERGIO'S INTENSITY IS NOT LIKELY TO
CHANGE MUCH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, ALTHOUGH SOME SLIGHT
WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE AS THE HURRICANE'S SPEED SLOWS DOWN AND IT
UPWELLS SOME COLDER WATER FROM BELOW, OR DUE TO POSSIBLE INTERNAL
STRUCTURAL CHANGES. MORE DEFINITIVE WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED BY
DAYS 4 AND 5 DUE TO AN INCREASE IN WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR AND THE HURRICANE REACHING COLDER WATERS. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE ICON CONSENSUS AND THE HCCA
MODEL. HOWEVER, THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS REMAIN A BIT
HIGHER, AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SERGIO WON'T LOSE QUITE AS MUCH
PUNCH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IS INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.

SERGIO CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHWESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF
235/7 KT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA WILL BYPASS SERGIO DURING THE DAY, LEAVING A WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE THAT WILL ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO BEGIN MAKING A SHARP
NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD TURN DURING THE NEXT 24-72 HOURS.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL THEN CAUSE SERGIO TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD
ON DAYS 4 AND 5. NOTABLE CHANGES IN THIS FORECAST UPDATE INCLUDE A
SLIGHTLY WIDER TURN FROM 24-72 HOURS, AND MORE SPREAD IN THE MODEL

2018-10-06 09:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 060845
TCDEP1

Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
200 AM PDT Sat Oct 06 2018

Sergio has changed little in structure since the last advisory. It
still has a 25-30 n mi wide eye surrounded by cold convective tops,
and with not much change in intensity estimates, the estimated
maximum winds remain 110 kt. Sergio's intensity is not likely to
change much during the next day or two, although some slight
weakening is possible as the hurricane's speed slows down and it
upwells some colder water from below, or due to possible internal
structural changes. More definitive weakening is anticipated by
days 4 and 5 due to an increase in westerly and southwesterly
shear and the hurricane reaching colder waters. The NHC intensity
forecast remains close to a blend of the ICON consensus and the HCCA
model. However, the statistical-dynamical models remain a bit
higher, and it is possible that Sergio won't lose quite as much
punch during the next several days as is indicated by the official
forecast.

Sergio continues to dive southwestward with an initial motion of
235/7 kt. A shortwave trough swinging across the Baja California
peninsula will bypass Sergio during the day, leaving a weakness in
the ridge that will allow the hurricane to begin making a sharp
northward and then northeastward turn during the next 24-72 hours.
Another shortwave trough forecast to dig southward off the
California coast will then cause Sergio to accelerate northeastward
on days 4 and 5. Notable changes in this forecast update include a
slightly wider turn from 24-72 hours, and more spread in the model
speeds once Sergio accelerates toward the Baja California
peninsula. As is usually the case in these scenarios, the ECMWF is
much slower than the other models, and because of that, the new NHC
forecast is a bit slower than the previous one, especially on day 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 14.9N 123.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 14.6N 124.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 14.4N 125.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 14.7N 126.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 15.2N 127.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 16.9N 126.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 19.0N 123.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 23.0N 118.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-10-06 09:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 060845
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
200 AM PDT SAT OCT 06 2018

...SERGIO SIDEWINDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 123.5W
ABOUT 1045 MI...1680 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 123.5 WEST. SERGIO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H). THE HURRICANE IS
FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND MAKE A SHARP NORTHEASTWARD TURN OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH (205 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SERGIO IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, BUT SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER, AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES (295 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 951 MB (28.09 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

....
FORECASTER BERG

2018-10-06 09:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 060844 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
0900 UTC SAT OCT 06 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 123.5W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 951 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 110SE 110SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..450NE 330SE 300SW 450NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 123.5W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 123.2W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 14.6N 124.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE 110SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 14.4N 125.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 14.7N 126.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 15.2N 127.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.9N 126.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

2018-10-06 09:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 060844
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
0900 UTC SAT OCT 06 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 123.5W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 951 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 110SE 110SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..450NE 330SE 300SW 450NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 123.5W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 123.2W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 14.6N 124.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE 110SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 14.4N 125.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 14.7N 126.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 15.2N 127.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.9N 126.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 19.0N 123.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 23.0N 118.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 123.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

2018-10-06 03:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 060232 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
800 PM PDT FRI OCT 05 2018

SERGIO HAS MAINTAINED A 25-30-NMI WIDE EYE THIS EVENING, AND A RING
OF COLD CLOUD TOPS HAS COOLED AROUND THE WELL-DEFINED EYE. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM T5.5/102 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB TO
T5.9/122 KT FROM ADT AND A T6.0/115 KT NHC OBJECTIVE T-NUMBER, SO
THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN BUMPED UP TO 110 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAVE BOTH
IMPROVED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WHILE SERGIO HAS LOST LATITUDE
AND MOVED OVER WARMER WATERS.

THE MOTION IS NOW SOUTHWESTWARD, OR 235/06 KT. SERGIO'S RECENT
SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO BE SHORT LIVED, WITH A RETURN TO
A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS. THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF SERGIO IS FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE NARROW DUE TO A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH, BUT IT IS
BASICALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT. THIS FEATURE WILL STEER THE
HURRICANE SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. BY MONDAY, HOWEVER, A
STRONGER TROUGH IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO DROP SOUTHWARD
OFF THE COASTS OF CALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA, CAUSING A
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING AND EROSION OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
RIDGE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SERGIO TURNING SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY, AND ACCELERATE ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NEW NHC
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK, AND LIES
CLOSE TO CONSENSUS MODELS TVCE AND NOAA-HCCA.

OTHER THAN VERY BRIEF INTRUSIONS OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR AND POSSIBLE
UPWELLING BENEATH THE HURRICANE DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED, THERE

2018-10-06 03:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 060232
TCDEP1

Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
800 PM PDT Fri Oct 05 2018

Sergio has maintained a 25-30-nmi wide eye this evening, and a ring
of cold cloud tops has cooled around the well-defined eye. Satellite
intensity estimates range from T5.5/102 kt from TAFB and SAB to
T5.9/122 kt from ADT and a T6.0/115 kt NHC objective T-number, so
the intensity has been bumped up to 110 kt for this advisory.
Upper-level outflow and the overall convective pattern have both
improved since the previous advisory while Sergio has lost latitude
and moved over warmer waters.

The motion is now southwestward, or 235/06 kt. Sergio's recent
southwestward motion is forecast to be short lived, with a return to
a west-southwestward to westward motion expected within the next 12
hours. The deep-layer ridge to the north of Sergio is forecast to
become more narrow due to a passing shortwave trough, but it is
basically expected to remain intact. This feature will steer the
hurricane slowly westward through Sunday. By Monday, however, a
stronger trough is forecast by the global models to drop southward
off the coasts of California and Baja California, causing a
significant weakening and erosion of the western portion of the
ridge. This is expected to result in Sergio turning slowly
northeastward on Monday, and accelerate on days 4 and 5. The new NHC
forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies
close to consensus models TVCE and NOAA-HCCA.

Other than very brief intrusions of dry mid-level air and possible
upwelling beneath the hurricane due to its slow forward speed, there
do not appear to be any other negative factors that would
significantly disrupt Sergio's intensity for the next 36-48 hours.
By 72 hours and beyond, however, increasing southwesterly vertical
wind shear is expected to induce a steady weakening trend after the
cyclone begins accelerating toward the northeast, and on days 4 and
5 passing over the cold wake left behind by former Hurricane Rosa.
The new official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one,
and is near an average of the NOAA-HCCA and IVCN consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 15.3N 122.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 15.0N 123.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 14.7N 124.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 14.8N 125.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 15.4N 126.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 17.1N 126.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 19.4N 122.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 23.0N 118.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-06 03:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 060231 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
800 PM PDT FRI OCT 05 2018

...SERGIO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE WHILE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD
OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 122.7W
ABOUT 985 MI...1585 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE
SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 122.7 WEST.
SERGIO IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H), AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. A MOTION TOWARD THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST AND WEST IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SATURDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH (205 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SERGIO IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SLOW WEAKENING TREND ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER, SERGIO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM THE
CENTER, AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175

2018-10-06 03:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 060231
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Sergio Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
800 PM PDT Fri Oct 05 2018

...SERGIO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE WHILE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD
OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 122.7W
ABOUT 985 MI...1585 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of the large eye of Hurricane
Sergio was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 122.7 West.
Sergio is moving toward the southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue tonight. A motion toward the
west-southwest and west is forecast to begin Saturday morning and
continue through Saturday night. A motion toward the north is
expected on Sunday, followed by a gradual turn toward the northeast
on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h)
with higher gusts. Sergio is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is
expected through Saturday, followed by a slow weakening trend on
Sunday and Monday. However, Sergio is forecast to remain a hurricane
during the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 951 mb (28.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-06 03:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 060231 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
0300 UTC SAT OCT 06 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 122.7W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 951 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......150NE 110SE 110SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..450NE 360SE 300SW 450NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 122.7W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 122.5W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.0N 123.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 14.7N 124.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 14.8N 125.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 15.4N 126.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 17.1N 126.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

2018-10-06 03:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 060231
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
0300 UTC SAT OCT 06 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 122.7W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 951 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......150NE 110SE 110SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..450NE 360SE 300SW 450NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 122.7W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 122.5W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.0N 123.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 14.7N 124.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 14.8N 125.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 15.4N 126.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 17.1N 126.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 19.4N 122.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 23.0N 118.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 122.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

2018-10-05 21:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 052038 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
200 PM PDT FRI OCT 05 2018

THIS AFTERNOON'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION SHOWS THAT SERGIO HAS BECOME
A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. EYEWALL CLOUD TEMPERATURES HAVE ONCE
AGAIN COOLED, AND THE RAGGED, CLOUD-FILLED EYE HAS WARMED DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS. ACCORDINGLY, THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS
SUPPORT INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 105 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.

AS MENTIONED IN THIS MORNING'S DISCUSSION, UNFORESEEN SHORT TERM
INNER-CORE STRUCTURE CHANGES COULD CAUSE SOME INTENSITY
FLUCTUATIONS. SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO, LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST, AND AGAIN, THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER THAN
REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST. BEYOND THIS PERIOD, GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED THROUGH DAY 5 AS SERGIO MOVES TOWARD DECREASING SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND INTO A MORE STABLE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT. THE
DECAY-SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY GUIDANCE, AS WELL AS THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS, SHOW INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR DISRUPTING SERGIO'S
OUTFLOW PATTERN AFTER 72 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE, AND IS JUST ABOVE THE NOAA-HCCA AND IVCN
CONSENSUS MODELS AND BELOW THE STATISTICAL INTENSITY AIDS.

SERGIO'S MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, OR 250/6 KT
WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW PRODUCED BY A BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED

2018-10-05 21:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 052038
TCDEP1

Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
200 PM PDT Fri Oct 05 2018

This afternoon's satellite presentation shows that Sergio has become
a little better organized. Eyewall cloud temperatures have once
again cooled, and the ragged, cloud-filled eye has warmed during the
past 6 hours. Accordingly, the subjective and objective T-numbers
support increasing the initial intensity to 105 kt for this
advisory.

As mentioned in this morning's discussion, unforeseen short term
inner-core structure changes could cause some intensity
fluctuations. Since the environment is forecast to remain favorable
during the next 24 hours or so, little change in strength is
forecast, and again, the cyclone could become a little stronger than
reflected in the forecast. Beyond this period, gradual weakening is
expected through day 5 as Sergio moves toward decreasing sea-surface
temperatures and into a more stable surrounding environment. The
Decay-SHIPS and LGEM intensity guidance, as well as the large-scale
models, show increasing southwesterly shear disrupting Sergio's
outflow pattern after 72 hours. The intensity forecast is similar
to the previous package, and is just above the NOAA-HCCA and IVCN
consensus models and below the statistical intensity aids.

Sergio's motion is estimated to be west-southwestward, or 250/6 kt
within the mid-level steering flow produced by a building high
pressure system located north-northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. By
early next week, a decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the
northwest to north-northwest is forecast as the aforementioned
mid-level high retrogrades in response to an amplifying trough over
the southwestern United States and Baja California peninsula. Beyond
day 3, increasing southwesterly mid-tropospheric flow should induce
a northeastward accelerated motion through day 5. The NHC forecast
is again adjusted south of the last advisory through 48 hours, and
is close to the various multi-model consensus guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 15.7N 122.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 15.3N 123.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 14.9N 124.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 14.8N 125.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 15.1N 126.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 16.7N 126.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 18.9N 123.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 22.0N 119.3W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-10-05 21:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 052037 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
200 PM PDT FRI OCT 05 2018

...LARGE RAGGED EYE OF SERGIO WOBBLING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 122.3W
ABOUT 950 MI...1525 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF THE EYE OF HURRICANE SERGIO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 122.3 WEST. SERGIO
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, SERGIO IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH (195 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SERGIO IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN SERGIO'S
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. AFTERWARD,
SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT SERGIO IS STILL
EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES

2018-10-05 21:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 052037
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Sergio Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
200 PM PDT Fri Oct 05 2018

...LARGE RAGGED EYE OF SERGIO WOBBLING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 122.3W
ABOUT 950 MI...1525 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Sergio
was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 122.3 West. Sergio
is moving toward the west-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Saturday night. By
early next week, Sergio is forecast to turn toward the
west-northwest to north-northwest. A gradual turn toward the
northeast is expected on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h)
with higher gusts. Sergio is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in Sergio's
intensity is expected during the next 24 hours or so. Afterward,
slow weakening is forecast into early next week, but Sergio is still
expected to remain a hurricane through the middle of next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-10-05 21:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 052034 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
2100 UTC FRI OCT 05 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 122.3W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT.......150NE 100SE 100SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 360SE 300SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 122.3W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 122.0W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.3N 123.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 14.9N 124.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 14.8N 125.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 15.1N 126.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 16.7N 126.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 120NW.

2018-10-05 21:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 052034
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
2100 UTC FRI OCT 05 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 122.3W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT.......150NE 100SE 100SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 360SE 300SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 122.3W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 122.0W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.3N 123.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 14.9N 124.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 14.8N 125.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 15.1N 126.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 16.7N 126.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 18.9N 123.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 22.0N 119.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 122.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

2018-10-05 15:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 051500 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
800 AM PDT FRI OCT 05 2018

GOES-16 IMAGES AND A 1054 UTC ATMS MICROWAVE OVERPASS INDICATE
THAT SERGIO'S 25 N MI EYE HAS BECOME A BIT RAGGED THIS MORNING, AND
HAS CONTINUED TO COOL. DESPITE THE EYE'S IRREGULARITY, THE INNER
CORE CONVECTION IS STILL INTACT AND IS PRODUCING VERY COLD (-76C)
CLOUD TOPS. PRIMARILY DUE TO THE EYE ADJUSTMENT TEMPERATURE,
HOWEVER, THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES,
AS WELL AS A RECENT SATCON ANALYSIS, HAVE AGAIN DECREASED TO 95-100
KT, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUBSEQUENTLY LOWERED TO 100 KT.

ALTHOUGH DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF UNPREDICTED INNER CORE STRUCTURE
CHANGES IN THE SHORT TERM WHICH COULD CAUSE SERGIO TO STRENGTHEN
AGAIN, THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
DAY 5 AS SERGIO MOVES TOWARD DECREASING OCEANIC TEMPERATURES AND
INTO A STABILIZING SURROUNDING ATMOSPHERE. THE STATISTICAL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ENTERING THE PICTURE AFTER 72 HOURS. THIS
SHOULD ALSO AID IN THE FORECAST WEAKENING TREND. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND FOLLOWS THE
NOAA-HCCA CONSENSUS AND IS JUST ABOVE THE FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE.

SERGIO IS MOVING A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS 6-HR MOTION...NOW
WESTWARD, OR 280/7 KT. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF
SERGIO. OVER THE WEEKEND, A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN

2018-10-05 15:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 051500
TCDEP1

Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
800 AM PDT Fri Oct 05 2018

GOES-16 images and a 1054 UTC ATMS microwave overpass indicate
that Sergio's 25 n mi eye has become a bit ragged this morning, and
has continued to cool. Despite the eye's irregularity, the inner
core convection is still intact and is producing very cold (-76C)
cloud tops. Primarily due to the eye adjustment temperature,
however, the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates,
as well as a recent SATCON analysis, have again decreased to 95-100
kt, and the initial intensity is subsequently lowered to 100 kt.

Although due to the possibility of unpredicted inner core structure
changes in the short term which could cause Sergio to strengthen
again, the current weakening trend is expected to continue through
day 5 as Sergio moves toward decreasing oceanic temperatures and
into a stabilizing surrounding atmosphere. The statistical
intensity guidance as well as the large-scale models show increasing
southwesterly shear entering the picture after 72 hours. This
should also aid in the forecast weakening trend. The official
forecast is just an update of the previous one and follows the
NOAA-HCCA consensus and is just above the Florida State
Superensemble.

Sergio is moving a little left of the previous 6-hr motion...now
westward, or 280/7 kt. A gradual turn toward the west-southwest
during the next 36 hours is expected as high pressure located
north-northeast of the Hawaiian Islands builds to the north of
Sergio. Over the weekend, a decrease in forward speed and a turn
toward the northwest is forecast as the aforementioned mid-level
high retrogrades in response to an amplifying trough over the
southwestern United States and Baja California peninsula. Beyond the
72 hour period, increasing southwesterly mid-tropospheric flow
should induce a northeastward accelerated motion through the
remaining portion of the forecast. The NHC forecast is adjusted a
little toward the south of the last advisory through 72 hours to
agree more with the various consensus models, but is quite similar
in motion and forward speed beyond that period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 15.9N 121.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 15.8N 122.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 15.5N 123.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 15.2N 125.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 15.3N 126.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 16.5N 126.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 18.5N 125.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 21.5N 120.8W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-10-05 15:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 051448
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
800 AM PDT FRI OCT 05 2018

...SERGIO MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 121.8W
ABOUT 915 MI...1470 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 121.8 WEST. SERGIO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A TURN BACK TO THE
WEST ON SUNDAY. AFTERWARD, SERGIO IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH (185 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SERGIO IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL SLOW WEAKENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES
(280 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 959 MB (28.32 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.

....
FORECASTER ROBERTS

2018-10-05 15:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 051446 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
1500 UTC FRI OCT 05 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 121.8W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 140SE 120SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 360SE 300SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 121.8W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 121.5W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.8N 122.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.5N 123.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.2N 125.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 15.3N 126.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 16.5N 126.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 120NW.

2018-10-05 15:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 051446
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
1500 UTC FRI OCT 05 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 121.8W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 140SE 120SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 360SE 300SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 121.8W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 121.5W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.8N 122.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.5N 123.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.2N 125.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 15.3N 126.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 16.5N 126.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 18.5N 125.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 21.5N 120.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 121.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

2018-10-05 09:33

WTPZ41 KNHC 050854 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
200 AM PDT FRI OCT 05 2018

SERGIO'S EYE HAS COOLED SOMEWHAT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, BUT
THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SURROUNDING DEEP
CONVECTION. DESPITE THAT OBSERVATION, ALL AVAILABLE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE FALLEN TO BETWEEN 100-105 KT, AND THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS THEREFORE SET AT 105 KT. THE GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND
SERGIO HAS BEEN ON IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE HURRICANE MOVES TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER
WATERS AND INTO A DRIER, MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. AN INCREASE IN
SHEAR BY DAYS 4 AND 5 SHOULD ALSO HELP THE WEAKENING PROCESS ALONG.
THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS, HCCA, AND
FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.

SERGIO HAS CONTINUED TO TURN TO THE LEFT AND IS NOW MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 290/7 KT. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH THAT WILL SWING ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WILL
LIKELY PUSH SERGIO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BY 24 HOURS, AND THE NHC
FORECAST CONTINUES TO REFLECT THAT SCENARIO. AFTER 48 HOURS, A
BREAK IN THE RIDGE LEFT BEHIND BY THE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW SERGIO
TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH BY DAYS 3-4. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CAUSE A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF, ALONG WITH THE OTHER
MAJOR TRACK MODELS, HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS
ACCELERATION BY DAY 5, AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS THEREFORE A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AT THAT TIME.

2018-10-05 09:33

WTPZ41 KNHC 050854
TCDEP1

Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
200 AM PDT Fri Oct 05 2018

Sergio's eye has cooled somewhat during the past few hours, but
there have been no significant changes to the surrounding deep
convection. Despite that observation, all available intensity
estimates have fallen to between 100-105 kt, and the advisory
intensity is therefore set at 105 kt. The gradual weakening trend
Sergio has been on is expected to continue for the duration of the
forecast period as the hurricane moves toward slightly cooler
waters and into a drier, more stable environment. An increase in
shear by days 4 and 5 should also help the weakening process along.
The updated NHC intensity forecast is not too different from the
previous one and is close to the intensity consensus, HCCA, and
Florida State Superensemble.

Sergio has continued to turn to the left and is now moving
west-northwestward, or 290/7 kt. Northerly flow behind a mid-level
trough that will swing across the Baja California peninsula will
likely push Sergio west-southwestward by 24 hours, and the NHC
forecast continues to reflect that scenario. After 48 hours, a
break in the ridge left behind by the trough should allow Sergio
to turn toward the north by days 3-4. Another shortwave trough is
then expected to cause a northeastward acceleration by the end of
the forecast period. The GFS and ECMWF, along with the other
major track models, have come into better agreement on this
acceleration by day 5, and the new official forecast is therefore a
little faster than the previous one at that time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 16.0N 121.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 16.0N 122.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 15.7N 123.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 15.5N 124.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 15.4N 125.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 16.3N 126.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 18.0N 126.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 20.5N 122.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-10-05 09:33

WTPZ31 KNHC 050853
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
200 AM PDT FRI OCT 05 2018

...SERGIO TURNS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 121.2W
ABOUT 875 MI...1410 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 121.2 WEST. SERGIO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST AT A SIMILAR SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SERGIO SHOULD THEN TURN BACK TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH (195 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SERGIO IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL GRADUAL WEAKENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM THE
CENTER, AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES (280 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB (28.20 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

....
FORECASTER BERG

2018-10-05 09:33

WTPZ21 KNHC 050853 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
0900 UTC FRI OCT 05 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 121.2W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
EYE DIAMETER 35 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 140SE 120SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 360SE 300SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 121.2W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 120.8W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.0N 122.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.7N 123.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.5N 124.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 15.4N 125.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 16.3N 126.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

2018-10-05 09:33

WTPZ21 KNHC 050853
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
0900 UTC FRI OCT 05 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 121.2W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
EYE DIAMETER 35 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 140SE 120SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 360SE 300SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 121.2W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 120.8W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.0N 122.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.7N 123.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.5N 124.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 15.4N 125.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 16.3N 126.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 18.0N 126.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 20.5N 122.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 121.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

2018-10-05 03:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 050232 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
800 PM PDT THU OCT 04 2018

SERGIO'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED SOMEWHAT SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY, WITH CLOUD TOPS WARMING AND THE EYE BECOMING MORE RAGGED
AND LESS DISTINCT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 110 KT BASED
ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES.
SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE
MOVING INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. BY THEN, MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE FROM 48-72 HOURS BEFORE THE
SHEAR INCREASES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AND SSTS COOL TO BETWEEN
26C AND 27C, WHICH SHOULD AGAIN RESULT IN WEAKENING. THE NEW NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE FIRST
48 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE OBSERVED WEAKENING AND THE TREND IN THE
GUIDANCE, BUT IS SIMILAR AFTER THAT TIME. THIS PREDICTION IS CLOSE
TO OR A BIT ABOVE THE LATEST HCCA INTENSITY CONSENSUS AID.

SERGIO HAS TURNED TOWARD THE LEFT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE NOW 305/07. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TO
THE NORTHWEST OF SERGIO WILL STEER THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE WEST AND
EVEN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. AFTER
THAT TIME, AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA
WILL ERODE THE RIDGE AND CAUSE SERGIO TO RECURVE, WITH A FASTER
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION SHOWN BY DAY 5. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE FROM 24 TO 48 HOURS,
FOLLOWING THE TREND OF THE LATEST CONSENSUS AIDS, WHICH ARE SHOWING
A MORE EQUATORWARD MOTION DURING THIS TIME. AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5, THE

2018-10-05 03:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 050232
TCDEP1

Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
800 PM PDT Thu Oct 04 2018

Sergio's cloud pattern has deteriorated somewhat since the previous
advisory, with cloud tops warming and the eye becoming more ragged
and less distinct. The initial intensity is reduced to 110 kt based
on a blend of the latest objective and subjective Dvorak estimates.
Sergio is expected to steadily weaken for the next 48 hours while
moving into a drier and more stable environment. By then, most of
the guidance suggests little change from 48-72 hours before the
shear increases by the end of the period and SSTs cool to between
26C and 27C, which should again result in weakening. The new NHC
intensity forecast is lower than the previous one during the first
48 hours to account for the observed weakening and the trend in the
guidance, but is similar after that time. This prediction is close
to or a bit above the latest HCCA intensity consensus aid.

Sergio has turned toward the left during the past few hours, with an
initial motion estimate now 305/07. A mid-level ridge building to
the northwest of Sergio will steer the hurricane toward the west and
even toward the west-southwest during the next 36 to 48 hours. After
that time, an amplifying longwave trough over western North America
will erode the ridge and cause Sergio to recurve, with a faster
northeastward motion shown by day 5. The new NHC track forecast has
been adjusted to the south of the previous one from 24 to 48 hours,
following the trend of the latest consensus aids, which are showing
a more equatorward motion during this time. At days 3 through 5, the
NHC track is largely an update of the previous one, and lies between
the faster GFS and the slower ECMWF models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 15.9N 120.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 16.0N 121.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 15.9N 122.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 15.6N 123.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 15.5N 125.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 16.0N 127.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 17.5N 127.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 19.5N 124.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

2018-10-05 03:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 050231
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
800 PM PDT THU OCT 04 2018

...SERGIO MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 120.5W
ABOUT 840 MI...1355 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 120.5 WEST. SERGIO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A TURN BACK TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH (205 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SERGIO IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT
SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH SUNDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES
(240 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 951 MB (28.09 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

....
FORECASTER BRENNAN

2018-10-05 03:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 050231 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
0300 UTC FRI OCT 05 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 120.5W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 951 MB
EYE DIAMETER 35 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 130SE 130SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..450NE 360SE 300SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 120.5W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 120.2W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.0N 121.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.9N 122.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 65NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.6N 123.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.5N 125.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.0N 127.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

2018-10-05 03:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 050231
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
0300 UTC FRI OCT 05 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 120.5W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 951 MB
EYE DIAMETER 35 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 130SE 130SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..450NE 360SE 300SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 120.5W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 120.2W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.0N 121.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.9N 122.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 65NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.6N 123.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.5N 125.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.0N 127.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 120SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 17.5N 127.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 19.5N 124.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 120.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

2018-10-04 21:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 042033 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
200 PM PDT THU OCT 04 2018

SERGIO REMAINS AN IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE. ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN
IS STILL SYMMETRIC AND WELL ORGANIZED, THE EYE HAS BECOME RAGGED AND
CLOUD FILLED AT TIMES. THE CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGE FROM 102 TO 127 KT, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 115 KT
BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ALONG
SERGIO'S FUTURE PATH ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH DECREASING MID-LEVEL HUMIDITIES,
COOLER SSTS, AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SHEAR. IN RESPONSE, ALL
OF THE MODELS SHOW A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD, AND
THE NHC FORECAST DOES AS WELL. THIS FORECAST LIES NEAR THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS AIDS AND IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.

THE HURRICANE IS STILL MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT 8 KT. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE LEFT, OR WEST, IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SERGIO.
LATE THIS WEEKEND, A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS THE
RIDGE RETREATS IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE
CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
ONLY NOTABLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS A SHARPER NORTHWARD AND
NORTHEASTWARD TURN AT DAYS 4 AND 5, TO COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE LATEST CONSENSUS AIDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 15.5N 119.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 15.9N 120.8W 110 KT 125 MPH

2018-10-04 21:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 042033
TCDEP1

Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
200 PM PDT Thu Oct 04 2018

Sergio remains an impressive hurricane. Although the cloud pattern
is still symmetric and well organized, the eye has become ragged and
cloud filled at times. The current satellite intensity estimates
range from 102 to 127 kt, and the initial intensity is set to 115 kt
based on a blend of these data. The environmental conditions along
Sergio's future path are expected to gradually become less favorable
during the next several days, with decreasing mid-level humidities,
cooler SSTs, and a slight increase in wind shear. In response, all
of the models show a gradual weakening trend through the period, and
the NHC forecast does as well. This forecast lies near the intensity
consensus aids and is largely an update of the previous one.

The hurricane is still moving to the northwest at 8 kt. A gradual
turn to the left, or west, is expected during the next couple of
days as a mid-level ridge builds to the north-northwest of Sergio.
Late this weekend, a decrease in forward speed is expected as the
ridge retreats in response to a large trough over the southwestern
United States. This change in the steering pattern should cause the
cyclone to turn northeastward by the end of the forecast period. The
only notable change in the track forecast is a sharper northward and
northeastward turn at days 4 and 5, to come in better agreement with
the latest consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 15.5N 119.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 15.9N 120.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 16.1N 121.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 15.9N 123.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 15.7N 124.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 15.7N 126.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 16.8N 127.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 18.3N 126.2W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-10-04 21:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 042032
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
200 PM PDT THU OCT 04 2018

...SERGIO REMAINS A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 119.9W
ABOUT 830 MI...1330 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 119.9 WEST. SERGIO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). A SLOWER MOTION TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 130 MPH (215 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SERGIO IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, BUT SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES
(240 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 947 MB (27.97 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

....
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-10-04 21:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 042032 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
2100 UTC THU OCT 04 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 119.9W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 947 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 130SE 130SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 360SE 330SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 119.9W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 119.6W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.9N 120.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.1N 121.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.9N 123.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.7N 124.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 15.7N 126.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

2018-10-04 21:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 042032
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
2100 UTC THU OCT 04 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 119.9W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 947 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 130SE 130SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 360SE 330SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 119.9W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 119.6W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.9N 120.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.1N 121.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.9N 123.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.7N 124.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 15.7N 126.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 16.8N 127.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 18.3N 126.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 119.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-10-04 15:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 041444 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
800 AM PDT THU OCT 04 2018

SERGIO REMAINS A STRONG HURRICANE THIS MORNING, WITH SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 5.5 (102 KT) TO 6.5 (127 KT). WHILE
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR HAS BEEN INGESTED INTO THE EYEWALL, CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED RECENTLY AND SERGIO APPEARS POISED TO
ONCE AGAIN CLOSE OFF THIS DRY AIR CHANNEL. BASED ON THESE DATA, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 120 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
MOSTLY A CONTINUATION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, BUT IS SLIGHTLY
LOWER AFTER 24 HOURS TO REFLECT A BLEND OF HCCA AND OTHER CONSENSUS
AIDS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM GFS/SHIPS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT OR
BELOW APPROXIMATELY 10 KT THROUGH 48 HOURS BEFORE INCREASING TO
ABOVE 15 KT BY SATURDAY. THE PRIMARY LIMITER ON SERGIO'S INTENSITY
APPEARS TO BE SSTS WHICH WILL DROP OFF GRADUALLY, ESPECIALLY BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

SERGIO IS CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS INTO THE PACIFIC OFF OF MEXICO. THE INITIAL
MOTION IS 320/8 KT. OBJECTIVE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A SECOND RIDGE WHICH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON SERGIO THEN TURNING BACK
NORTHEASTWARD BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THIS RIDGE LIFTS
NORTHWARD AND A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH DAY 4 WITH A SMALL SHIFT EASTWARD
THEREAFTER TO REFLECT A SLIGHTLY EARLIER NORTHEAST TURN IN THE

2018-10-04 15:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 041444
TCDEP1

Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
800 AM PDT Thu Oct 04 2018

Sergio remains a strong hurricane this morning, with subjective
Dvorak estimates range from 5.5 (102 kt) to 6.5 (127 kt). While
some slightly drier air has been ingested into the eyewall, cloud
top temperatures have cooled recently and Sergio appears poised to
once again close off this dry air channel. Based on these data, the
initial intensity is held at 120 kt. The intensity forecast is
mostly a continuation of the previous advisory, but is slightly
lower after 24 hours to reflect a blend of HCCA and other consensus
aids. Vertical wind shear from GFS/SHIPS is forecast to remain at or
below approximately 10 kt through 48 hours before increasing to
above 15 kt by Saturday. The primary limiter on Sergio's intensity
appears to be SSTs which will drop off gradually, especially by the
end of the forecast.

Sergio is continuing to move northwestward around the mid-level
ridge which extends into the Pacific off of Mexico. The initial
motion is 320/8 kt. Objective track guidance is in fairly good
agreement on a gradual turn toward the west tonight and Friday in
response to a second ridge which builds in from the west. Guidance
remains in decent agreement on Sergio then turning back
northeastward by the end of the forecast period as this ridge lifts
northward and a highly-amplified mid-level trough digs into western
North America. The official track forecast is very similar to the
previous advisory through day 4 with a small shift eastward
thereafter to reflect a slightly earlier northeast turn in the
guidance. This track philosophy is supported by essentially all of
the ECMWF/GFS ensemble members as well.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 15.0N 119.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 15.6N 120.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 16.0N 121.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 16.0N 122.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 15.7N 124.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 15.6N 126.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 16.3N 128.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 17.9N 127.6W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Onderlinde/Cangialosi

2018-10-04 15:32

WTPZ31 KNHC 041441
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
800 AM PDT THU OCT 04 2018

...STEADY-STATE SERGIO SWIRLING OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 119.3W
ABOUT 820 MI...1320 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 119.3 WEST. SERGIO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
WEST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH (220 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SERGIO IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO, BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON
FRIDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES
(240 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 943 MB (27.85 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.

....
FORECASTER ONDERLINDE/CANGIALOSI

2018-10-04 15:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 041440 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
1500 UTC THU OCT 04 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 119.3W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 943 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 130SE 130SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 330SE 270SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 119.3W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 119.0W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 15.6N 120.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.0N 121.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.0N 122.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.7N 124.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 15.6N 126.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

2018-10-04 15:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 041440
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
1500 UTC THU OCT 04 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 119.3W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 943 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 130SE 130SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 330SE 270SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 119.3W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 119.0W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 15.6N 120.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.0N 121.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.0N 122.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.7N 124.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 15.6N 126.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 110SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 16.3N 128.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 17.9N 127.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 119.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ONDERLINDE/CANGIALOSI

2018-10-04 15:32

WTPN32 PHNC 041600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 21E (SERGIO) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 14.7N 119.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7N 119.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 15.6N 120.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 16.0N 121.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 16.0N 122.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 15.7N 124.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 15.6N 126.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 16.3N 128.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 17.9N 127.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
041600Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 119.4W.
HURRICANE 21E (SERGIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1085 NM SOUTH OF
SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 042200Z, 050400Z, 051000Z AND 051600Z.//
NNNN

2018-10-04 12:33

WTPN32 PHNC 041000 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 21E (SERGIO) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 21E (SERGIO) WARNING NR 020A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 14.1N 118.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 118.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 15.1N 119.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 15.8N 121.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 16.0N 122.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 15.8N 123.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 15.5N 126.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 16.0N 128.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 17.5N 128.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
041000Z POSITION NEAR 14.4N 118.9W.
HURRICANE 21E (SERGIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1119 NM SOUTH OF
SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 041600Z, 042200Z, 050400Z AND 051000Z.
JUSTIFICATION FOR CORECTION: UPDATED WARNING.//
NNNN

2018-10-04 12:33

WTPN32 PHNC 041000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 21E (SERGIO) WARNING NR 020A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 21E (SERGIO) WARNING NR 020A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 14.1N 118.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 118.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 15.1N 119.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 15.8N 121.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 16.0N 122.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 15.8N 123.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 15.5N 126.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 16.0N 128.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 17.5N 128.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
041000Z POSITION NEAR 14.4N 118.9W.
HURRICANE 21E (SERGIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1119 NM SOUTH OF
SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 041600Z, 042200Z, 050400Z AND 051000Z.
JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: UPDATED WARNING.//
NNNN

2018-10-04 09:33

WTPZ41 KNHC 040851 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
200 AM PDT THU OCT 04 2018

SERGIO'S INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE INCREASED JUST A LITTLE
MORE THIS MORNING, AND IT REMAINS A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE T6.5/127 KT FROM TAFB AND T6.0/115
KT FROM SAB, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 120 KT, WHICH
IS A BLEND OF THESE NUMBERS AND VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST OBJECTIVE
ADT ESTIMATE. SERGIO'S MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE
OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, AND THE HURRICANE'S INTENSITY COULD VERY
WELL BE MODULATED BY DIFFICULT-TO-FORECAST INTERNAL PROCESSES SUCH
AS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. AFTER 48 HOURS, AN INCREASE IN
SHEAR AND GRADUALLY COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME WEAKENING, ESPECIALLY WHEN SERGIO MOVES MORE SLOWLY AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND POSSIBLY UPWELLS SOME COOLER WATER
FROM BELOW. THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NUDGED DOWNWARD
DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS TO FOLLOW THE LATEST CONSENSUS AIDS, BUT
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BEYOND 48 HOURS.

THE HURRICANE'S INITIAL MOTION IS NORTHWESTWARD, OR 320/7 KT, WITH
SERGIO LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM MEXICO. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD WESTWARD AND CONNECT TO ANOTHER MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED NEAR
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN, FORCING SERGIO TO TURN WESTWARD, OR EVEN
SOUTH OF DUE WEST, BETWEEN 36-72 HOURS. BY DAYS 4 AND 5, A LARGE
TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE GREATER
INFLUENCE, CAUSING SERGIO TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWARD BY THE

2018-10-04 09:33

WTPZ41 KNHC 040851
TCDEP1

Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
200 AM PDT Thu Oct 04 2018

Sergio's intensity is estimated to have increased just a little
more this morning, and it remains a powerful category 4 hurricane.
Subjective Dvorak estimates are T6.5/127 kt from TAFB and T6.0/115
kt from SAB, and the initial intensity is raised to 120 kt, which
is a blend of these numbers and very close to the latest objective
ADT estimate. Sergio's maximum winds are expected to change little
over the next 12-24 hours, and the hurricane's intensity could very
well be modulated by difficult-to-forecast internal processes such
as eyewall replacement cycles. After 48 hours, an increase in
shear and gradually cooling sea surface temperatures should result
in some weakening, especially when Sergio moves more slowly at the
end of the forecast period and possibly upwells some cooler water
from below. The updated NHC intensity forecast is nudged downward
during the first 48 hours to follow the latest consensus aids, but
no changes were made to the previous forecast beyond 48 hours.

The hurricane's initial motion is northwestward, or 320/7 kt, with
Sergio located along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level
ridge extending westward from Mexico. This ridge is expected to
build westward and connect to another mid-level ridge located near
the central Pacific Ocean, forcing Sergio to turn westward, or even
south of due west, between 36-72 hours. By days 4 and 5, a large
trough near the west coast of the United States should have greater
influence, causing Sergio to slow down and turn northward by the
end of the forecast period. The track guidance is tightly
clustered for much of the forecast period, although a notable
southward shift among the guidance, especially from the ECMWF,
required a bit of a southward shift in the official forecast as
well.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 14.4N 118.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 15.1N 119.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 15.8N 121.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 16.0N 122.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 15.8N 123.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 15.5N 126.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 16.0N 128.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 17.5N 128.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-10-04 09:33

WTPZ31 KNHC 040850
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
200 AM PDT THU OCT 04 2018

...SERGIO A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 118.8W
ABOUT 825 MI...1330 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 118.8 WEST. SERGIO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
WEST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH (220 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SERGIO IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO, BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON
FRIDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM THE
CENTER, AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150
MILES (240 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 943 MB (27.85 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

....
FORECASTER BERG

2018-10-04 09:33

WTPZ21 KNHC 040850 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
0900 UTC THU OCT 04 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 118.8W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 943 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 130SE 130SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 330SE 270SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 118.8W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 118.5W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 15.1N 119.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.8N 121.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.0N 122.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.8N 123.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 15.5N 126.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

2018-10-04 09:33

WTPZ21 KNHC 040850
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
0900 UTC THU OCT 04 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 118.8W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 943 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 130SE 130SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 330SE 270SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 118.8W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 118.5W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 15.1N 119.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.8N 121.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.0N 122.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.8N 123.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 15.5N 126.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 110SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 16.0N 128.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 17.5N 128.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 118.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

2018-10-04 04:34

WTPN32 PHNC 040400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 21E (SERGIO) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 21E (SERGIO) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 13.5N 118.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N 118.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 14.6N 119.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 15.5N 120.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 15.9N 121.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 15.9N 122.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 15.6N 125.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 15.8N 128.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 17.0N 129.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
040400Z POSITION NEAR 13.9N 118.4W.
HURRICANE 21E (SERGIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1153 NM SOUTH OF
SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 33 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 041000Z, 041600Z, 042200Z AND 050400Z.//
NNNN

2018-10-04 03:33

WTPZ41 KNHC 040236 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
800 PM PDT WED OCT 03 2018

SERGIO IS QUITE THE SIGHT TONIGHT OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A
LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND MESOVORTICES OBSERVED WITHIN THE
WELL-DEFINED EYE. SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB BOTH
SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY HIGHER INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 115 KT ON THIS
ADVISORY, WHICH IS A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN LOWER MICROWAVE
ESTIMATES BUT HIGHER ADT VALUES. NOTABLY, SERGIO IS THE RECORD MOST
8TH CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE OF THE 2018 EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON-
BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 7 SET IN 2015. RELIABLE RECORDS IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC FOR MAJOR HURRICANES GO BACK TO 1971.

FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE
THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW AND THE WATER IS QUITE WARM.
AFTER THAT TIME, A COMBINATION OF COOLING WATERS AND HIGHER SHEAR
SHOULD GENERALLY CAUSE SERGIO TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE AN
UNSTEADY PROCESS, HOWEVER, SINCE EYEWALL CYCLES ARE ALSO LIKELY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OVERALL, THE HURRICANE SHOULD BE ON A WEAKENING
TREND, AND THAT IS THE NHC FORECAST, VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE, AND A BIT HIGHER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

SERGIO IS MOVING NORTHWEST OR 315/8. THIS MOTION SHOULD GRADUALLY
BEND TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE STEERING FLOW
CHANGES FROM A RIDGE NEAR MEXICO TO A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE. SERGIO COULD TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HURRICANE COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC AND SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT DURING

2018-10-04 03:33

WTPZ41 KNHC 040236
TCDEP1

Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
800 PM PDT Wed Oct 03 2018

Sergio is quite the sight tonight over the eastern Pacific with a
large central dense overcast and mesovortices observed within the
well-defined eye. Subjective estimates from TAFB and SAB both
support a slightly higher initial wind speed of 115 kt on this
advisory, which is a good compromise between lower microwave
estimates but higher ADT values. Notably, Sergio is the record most
8th category 4 hurricane of the 2018 eastern Pacific season-
breaking the old record of 7 set in 2015. Reliable records in the
eastern Pacific for major hurricanes go back to 1971.

Further strengthening is possible during the next day or so while
the shear is forecast to remain low and the water is quite warm.
After that time, a combination of cooling waters and higher shear
should generally cause Sergio to weaken. This will probably be an
unsteady process, however, since eyewall cycles are also likely over
the next few days. Overall, the hurricane should be on a weakening
trend, and that is the NHC forecast, very similar to the previous
one, and a bit higher than the model consensus.

Sergio is moving northwest or 315/8. This motion should gradually
bend toward the west over the next day or two as the steering flow
changes from a ridge near Mexico to a building ridge to the
northwest of the hurricane. Sergio could turn to the northwest
early next week as the hurricane comes under the influence of
a deepening trough over the far eastern Pacific and southwestern
United States. The model guidance is in excellent agreement during
the next few days, and no significant changes were required to the
previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 13.8N 118.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 14.6N 119.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 15.5N 120.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 15.9N 121.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 15.9N 122.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 15.6N 125.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 15.8N 128.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 17.0N 129.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-10-03 22:34

WTPN32 PHNC 032200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 21E (SERGIO) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 13.0N 117.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 117.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 14.1N 118.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 15.2N 120.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 15.8N 121.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 16.1N 122.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 15.8N 124.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 15.6N 127.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 16.4N 129.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
032200Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 118.0W.
HURRICANE 21E (SERGIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1182 NM SOUTH OF
SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 33 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 040400Z, 041000Z, 041600Z AND 042200Z.//
NNNN

2018-10-03 21:34

WTPZ41 KNHC 032045 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
200 PM PDT WED OCT 03 2018

SERGIO'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO LOOK IMPRESSIVE THIS
AFTERNOON. SEVERAL MESOVORTICES CAN BE IDENTIFIED ROTATING WITHIN
THE EYE. HOWEVER, THE EYE IS SOMEWHAT OBSCURED BY UPPER-LEVEL
CLOUDS AND THE EYEWALL EDGE IS NOT CLEARLY DEFINED. BASED ON A
BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB, THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 110 KT, WHICH IS THE SAME AS IN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. SERGIO SHOULD REMAIN IN QUITE FAVORABLE
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, AND
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY, SERGIO WILL BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND THROUGH A DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR MASS, WHICH SHOULD
INITIATE GRADUAL WEAKENING.

SERGIO IS CURRENTLY HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST, OR 305/8 KT. BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE STORM IS FORECAST TO SLOW AND TURN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD WHILE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
LIES CLOSE TO THE EQUALLY WEIGHTED DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS, TVCN.

IT IS OF INTEREST TO NOTE THAT A SMALL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED N MI TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SERGIO IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRAWN INTO THE LARGER CIRCULATION OF THE HURRICANE
OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 13.3N 117.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 14.1N 118.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 15.2N 120.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 15.8N 121.2W 115 KT 130 MPH

2018-10-03 21:34

WTPZ41 KNHC 032045
TCDEP1

Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
200 PM PDT Wed Oct 03 2018

Sergio's satellite presentation continues to look impressive this
afternoon. Several mesovortices can be identified rotating within
the eye. However, the eye is somewhat obscured by upper-level
clouds and the eyewall edge is not clearly defined. Based on a
blend of subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, the advisory
intensity estimate is held at 110 kt, which is the same as in the
previous advisory. Sergio should remain in quite favorable
atmospheric and oceanic conditions for the next day or two, and
additional strengthening is expected through Thursday. By
Friday, Sergio will be moving over slightly cooler sea-surface
temperatures and through a drier mid-level air mass, which should
initiate gradual weakening.

Sergio is currently heading toward the northwest, or 305/8 kt. By
Friday and Saturday, the storm is forecast to slow and turn
west-northwestward to westward while a mid-level ridge builds to the
north and northwest of the hurricane. The official track forecast
lies close to the equally weighted dynamical model consensus, TVCN.

It is of interest to note that a small disturbance currently
located a few hundred n mi to the west-southwest of Sergio is
expected to be drawn into the larger circulation of the hurricane
overnight.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 13.3N 117.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 14.1N 118.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 15.2N 120.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 15.8N 121.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 16.1N 122.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 15.8N 124.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 15.6N 127.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 16.4N 129.2W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

2018-10-03 21:34

WTPZ31 KNHC 032044
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
200 PM PDT WED OCT 03 2018

...SERGIO MAINTAINING 125 MPH WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 117.9W
ABOUT 845 MI...1360 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 117.9 WEST. SERGIO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH (205 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SERGIO IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY FRIDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES
(240 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB (28.20 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

....
FORECASTER PASCH

2018-10-03 21:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 032042 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
2100 UTC WED OCT 03 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 117.9W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 130SE 120SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 360SE 210SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 117.9W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 117.6W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.1N 118.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 15.2N 120.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.8N 121.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.1N 122.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.8N 124.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

2018-10-03 21:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 032042
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
2100 UTC WED OCT 03 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 117.9W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 130SE 120SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 360SE 210SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 117.9W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 117.6W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.1N 118.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 15.2N 120.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.8N 121.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.1N 122.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.8N 124.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 15.6N 127.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 16.4N 129.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 117.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/PENNY

2018-10-03 15:34

WTPZ41 KNHC 031432 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
800 AM PDT WED OCT 03 2018

SERGIO HAS INTENSIFIED THIS MORNING, WITH THE EYE BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED WHILE EMBEDDED IN VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. THE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE HURRICANE, BUT STRONG
OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION. USING A BLEND OF
OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES, THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS 110 KT. SERGIO WILL REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS OF NEARLY
29 DEG C, WITH MODERATE SHEAR AND A HUMID MID-LEVEL AIR MASS FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THUS, SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
IN THE SHORT TERM. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS, SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND
SOME ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR IS LIKELY TO CAUSE A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND TO BEGIN. THE NHC FORECAST IS AT THE HIGH END OF THE
INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE, AND SHOWS SERGIO REMAINING A HURRICANE
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE HURRICANE HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST, AND IS NOW MOVING AT
ABOUT 305/9 KT. THIS TURN IS PROBABLY BEING CAUSED BY A WEAKNESS IN
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH NEARING SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA, THE GLOBAL
MODELS PREDICT THAT A RIDGE WILL REBUILD TO THE NORTH OF SERGIO IN
A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST AT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SIMPLE AND CORRECTED DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS PREDICTIONS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 12.9N 117.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 13.6N 118.3W 120 KT 140 MPH

2018-10-03 15:34

WTPZ41 KNHC 031432
TCDEP1

Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
800 AM PDT Wed Oct 03 2018

Sergio has intensified this morning, with the eye becoming better
defined while embedded in very cold cloud tops. The upper-level
outflow is restricted to the northeast of the hurricane, but strong
over the southern part of the circulation. Using a blend of
objective and subjective Dvorak estimates, the advisory intensity
estimate is 110 kt. Sergio will remain over warm waters of nearly
29 deg C, with moderate shear and a humid mid-level air mass for
the next day or so. Thus, some additional strengthening is forecast
in the short term. In a couple of days, slightly cooler waters and
some entrainment of dry air is likely to cause a gradual weakening
trend to begin. The NHC forecast is at the high end of the
intensity model guidance, and shows Sergio remaining a hurricane
throughout the entire forecast period.

The hurricane has turned toward the northwest, and is now moving at
about 305/9 kt. This turn is probably being caused by a weakness in
the mid-level ridge associated with a trough nearing southern
California. As the trough moves away from the area, the global
models predict that a ridge will rebuild to the north of Sergio in
a couple of days. This should result in a turn toward the
west-northwest and west at 48 hours and beyond. The official track
forecast is close to the simple and corrected dynamical model
consensus predictions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 12.9N 117.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 13.6N 118.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 14.7N 119.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 15.6N 120.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 16.2N 122.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 16.3N 124.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 16.3N 127.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 17.0N 130.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

2018-10-03 15:34

WTPZ31 KNHC 031431
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
800 AM PDT WED OCT 03 2018

...SERGIO STRENGTHENS SOME MORE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 117.3W
ABOUT 845 MI...1360 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 117.3 WEST. SERGIO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H) AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH (205 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SERGIO IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY
FRIDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES
(240 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB (28.20 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.

....
FORECASTER PASCH

2018-10-03 15:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 031430 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
1500 UTC WED OCT 03 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 117.3W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 130SE 80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 117.3W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 117.0W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.6N 118.3W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 14.7N 119.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 15.6N 120.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.2N 122.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 16.3N 124.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 150NW.

2018-10-03 15:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 031430
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
1500 UTC WED OCT 03 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 117.3W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 130SE 80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 117.3W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 117.0W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.6N 118.3W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 14.7N 119.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 15.6N 120.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.2N 122.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 16.3N 124.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 16.3N 127.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 17.0N 130.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 117.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

2018-10-03 15:34

WTPN32 PHNC 031600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 21E (SERGIO) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 21E (SERGIO) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 12.6N 117.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N 117.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 13.6N 118.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 14.7N 119.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 15.6N 120.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 16.2N 122.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 16.3N 124.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 16.3N 127.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 17.0N 130.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
031600Z POSITION NEAR 12.9N 117.4W.
HURRICANE 21E (SERGIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1206 NM SOUTH OF
SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 33 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 032200Z, 040400Z, 041000Z AND 041600Z.//
NNNN

2018-10-03 10:33

WTPN32 PHNC 031000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 21E (SERGIO) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 12.0N 116.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0N 116.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 13.0N 117.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 14.0N 119.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 15.0N 120.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 15.8N 121.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 16.3N 124.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 16.3N 127.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 16.8N 130.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
031000Z POSITION NEAR 12.3N 116.8W.
HURRICANE 21E (SERGIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1243 NM SOUTH OF
SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 31
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031600Z, 032200Z, 040400Z AND 041000Z.//
NNNN

2018-10-03 09:34

WTPZ41 KNHC 030847 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
200 AM PDT WED OCT 03 2018

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE
HURRICANE OVERNIGHT. RECENT MICROWAVE DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW
THAT THE EYEWALL IS OPEN TO THE NORTHWEST AND THAT THERE IS
SOME NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST DISPLACEMENT OF THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL
CENTERS DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS
OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES YIELDS
AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KT. THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE SHEAR CURRENTLY AFFECTING SERGIO WILL DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRENGTHENING. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SERGIO TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY IN
ABOUT 36 HOURS, AND IT IS NEAR THE UPPER-END OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE. AFTER THAT TIME, SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND THE
ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR ARE FORECAST TO CAUSE GRADUAL
WEAKENING, BUT SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

SERGIO IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT. THE
WESTERN PORTION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF SERGIO IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE
HURRICANE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED.
BY THE WEEKEND, ANOTHER RIDGE IS PREDICTED TO BUILD TO THE
NORTHWEST OF SERGIO, AND THIS SHOULD FORCE THE HURRICANE TO TURN
WESTWARD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48
HOURS, BUT THERE IS INCREASING CROSS-TRACK SPREAD THEREAFTER. THE
UPDATED NHC FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR

2018-10-03 09:34

WTPZ41 KNHC 030847
TCDEP1

Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
200 AM PDT Wed Oct 03 2018

There has been little change to the overall organization of the
hurricane overnight. Recent microwave data continue to show
that the eyewall is open to the northwest and that there is
some northeast to southwest displacement of the low- and mid-level
centers due to northeasterly shear. A blend of the various
objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates yields
an initial intensity of 100 kt. The global models suggest that
the shear currently affecting Sergio will decrease over the next 24
to 36 hours, which should allow for strengthening. The NHC
intensity forecast calls for Sergio to reach peak intensity in
about 36 hours, and it is near the upper-end of the intensity
guidance. After that time, slightly cooler waters and the
entrainment of drier mid-level air are forecast to cause gradual
weakening, but Sergio is expected to remain a hurricane through the
entire forecast period.

Sergio is moving west-northwestward or 300 degrees at 10 kt. The
western portion of a mid-level ridge to the north of Sergio is
expected to weaken during the next day or so, which should cause the
hurricane to move northwestward at a slightly slower forward speed.
By the weekend, another ridge is predicted to build to the
northwest of Sergio, and this should force the hurricane to turn
westward. The track guidance is in good agreement through 48
hours, but there is increasing cross-track spread thereafter. The
updated NHC forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope for
the first two days, but lies between the more northern GFS solution
and the consensus aids thereafter.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 12.3N 116.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 13.0N 117.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 14.0N 119.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 15.0N 120.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 15.8N 121.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 16.3N 124.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 16.3N 127.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 16.8N 130.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-03 09:34

WTPZ31 KNHC 030846
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
200 AM PDT WED OCT 03 2018

...SERGIO MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 116.7W
ABOUT 855 MI...1380 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 116.7 WEST. SERGIO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH (185 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SERGIO IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO, WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY FRIDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES
(240 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB (28.50 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

....
FORECASTER BROWN

2018-10-03 09:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 030846 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
0900 UTC WED OCT 03 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 116.7W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 130SE 80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 116.7W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 116.3W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.0N 117.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.0N 119.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 15.0N 120.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.8N 121.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.3N 124.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 150NW.

2018-10-03 09:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 030846
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
0900 UTC WED OCT 03 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 116.7W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 130SE 80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 116.7W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 116.3W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.0N 117.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.0N 119.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 15.0N 120.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.8N 121.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.3N 124.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 16.3N 127.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 16.8N 130.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 116.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

2018-10-03 04:34

WTPN32 PHNC 030400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 21E (SERGIO) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 11.5N 115.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.5N 115.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 12.5N 117.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 13.6N 118.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 14.6N 119.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 15.5N 121.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 16.4N 123.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 16.5N 126.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 16.8N 129.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
030400Z POSITION NEAR 11.8N 115.9W.
HURRICANE 21E (SERGIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1275 NM SOUTH OF
SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 31
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031000Z, 031600Z, 032200Z AND 040400Z.//
NNNN

2018-10-03 03:33

WTPZ41 KNHC 030238 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
800 PM PDT TUE OCT 02 2018

THE EYE OF SERGIO HAS BECOME OBSCURED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS,
INDICATING THAT THE INTENSIFYING TREND HAS LEVELLED OFF. IT
APPEARS THAT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS AFFECTING THE INNER CORE AS THE
LATEST MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE AN OPEN EYEWALL ON THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF THE HURRICANE. THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 100 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY SINCE THE OVERALL WIND SPEED ESTIMATES HAVEN'T CHANGED
MUCH, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A FAIR SPREAD IN THOSE VALUES. THE SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF SERGIO, PENDING ANY EYEWALL CYCLES.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED IN THE LONGER RANGE WHILE THE HURRICANE MOVES
OVER MORE SHALLOW MARGINALLY WARM WATERS. ONLY A SMALL CHANGE HAS
BEEN MADE TO THE SHORT TERM INTENSITY FORECAST, AND THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME.

SERGIO HAS TURNED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND SLOWED DOWN, AS
FORECAST, NOW 300/9. A WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST TRACK IS
EXPECTED AS A RIDGE WEAKENS TO THE NORTH OF SERGIO FOR THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. THEREAFTER, A STRONG RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE
NORTHWEST OF SERGIO, WHICH SHOULD FORCE A WESTWARD MOTION. AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE FOR MANY CYCLONES THIS SEASON, THE GFS-BASED GUIDANCE
IS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, WHILE THE
ECMWF/UKMET ARE ON THE LEFT SIDE. THE CONSENSUS HAS REMAINED QUITE
STEADY NEAR THE PREVIOUS INTERPOLATED OFFICIAL FORECAST, THUS
THE NEW FORECAST IS BASICALLY JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

2018-10-03 03:33

WTPZ41 KNHC 030238
TCDEP1

Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
800 PM PDT Tue Oct 02 2018

The eye of Sergio has become obscured over the past several hours,
indicating that the intensifying trend has levelled off. It
appears that northeasterly shear is affecting the inner core as the
latest microwave data indicate an open eyewall on the northern side
of the hurricane. The intensity is held at 100 kt for this
advisory since the overall wind speed estimates haven't changed
much, although there is a fair spread in those values. The shear
is forecast to decrease over the next day or two, which should
allow further strengthening of Sergio, pending any eyewall cycles.
Weakening is expected in the longer range while the hurricane moves
over more shallow marginally warm waters. Only a small change has
been made to the short term intensity forecast, and the rest of the
forecast is essentially the same.

Sergio has turned toward the west-northwest and slowed down, as
forecast, now 300/9. A west-northwest or northwest track is
expected as a ridge weakens to the north of Sergio for the next day
or two. Thereafter, a strong ridge is forecast to build to the
northwest of Sergio, which should force a westward motion. As has
been the case for many cyclones this season, the GFS-based guidance
is on the right side of track guidance envelope, while the
ECMWF/UKMET are on the left side. The consensus has remained quite
steady near the previous interpolated official forecast, thus
the new forecast is basically just an update of the previous one.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 11.8N 115.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 12.5N 117.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 13.6N 118.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 14.6N 119.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 15.5N 121.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 16.4N 123.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 16.5N 126.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 16.8N 129.5W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-10-03 03:33

WTPZ31 KNHC 030236
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
800 PM PDT TUE OCT 02 2018

...SERGIO TURNS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.8N 115.8W
ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 115.8 WEST. SERGIO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 115 MPH (185 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SERGIO IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS, WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES
(240 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB (28.50 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

....
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-10-03 03:33

WTPZ21 KNHC 030236 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
0300 UTC WED OCT 03 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 115.8W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 130SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 115.8W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 115.4W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 12.5N 117.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.6N 118.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 14.6N 119.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 15.5N 121.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.4N 123.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE 90SW 150NW.

2018-10-03 03:33

WTPZ21 KNHC 030236
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
0300 UTC WED OCT 03 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 115.8W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 130SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 115.8W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 115.4W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 12.5N 117.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.6N 118.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 14.6N 119.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 15.5N 121.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.4N 123.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE 90SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 16.5N 126.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 16.8N 129.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 115.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-10-02 21:34

WTPZ41 KNHC 022032 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 02 2018

SERGIO HAS INTENSIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY. THE EYE OF THE
HURRICANE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED, AND IS EMBEDDED IN VERY COLD
CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS. OUTER BANDING FEATURES ARE ALSO WELL
DEFINED. UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW IS STRONG OVER THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION, AND A LITTLE RESTRICTED TO
THE NORTHEAST. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET, PROBABLY
CONSERVATIVELY, TO 100 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM
SAB. ONLY MODEST NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT SERGIO
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THAT, ALONG WITH WARM WATERS AND A VERY
MOIST MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE, SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE UPPER END OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE MODEL SUITE.

THE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING MOSTLY WESTWARD, OR 280/11 KT. THERE
IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS
COUPLE OF ADVISORY PACKAGES. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
SERGIO SHOULD WEAKEN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS A BROAD
TROUGH DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THESE CHANGES IN THE STEERING
FLOW SHOULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY
THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT, AND TO BEGIN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND, AGAIN, FOLLOWS THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

SOME SLIGHT ENLARGEMENTS TO THE WIND RADII WERE MADE OVER THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF SERGIO BASED ON SCATTEROMETER DATA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

2018-10-02 21:34

WTPZ41 KNHC 022032
TCDEP1

Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
200 PM PDT Tue Oct 02 2018

Sergio has intensified significantly today. The eye of the
hurricane has become better defined, and is embedded in very cold
convective cloud tops. Outer banding features are also well
defined. Upper-tropospheric outflow is strong over the western and
southern portions of the circulation, and a little restricted to
the northeast. The advisory intensity is set, probably
conservatively, to 100 kt in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from
SAB. Only modest northeasterly shear is expected to affect Sergio
over the next few days. That, along with warm waters and a very
moist middle troposphere, should be conducive for further
strengthening. The official forecast is near the upper end of the
intensity guidance model suite.

The system continues moving mostly westward, or 280/11 kt. There
is little change to the track forecast reasoning from the previous
couple of advisory packages. A mid-level ridge to the north of
Sergio should weaken within the next 12 to 24 hours as a broad
trough drops in from the northwest. These changes in the steering
flow should cause the hurricane to turn toward the west-northwest by
this evening or tonight, and to begin moving northwestward on
Wednesday. The official track forecast is is very similar to the
previous one and, again, follows the latest multi-model consensus.

Some slight enlargements to the wind radii were made over the
eastern semicircle of Sergio based on scatterometer data.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 11.2N 115.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 12.0N 116.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 13.1N 117.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 14.2N 119.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 15.2N 120.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 16.3N 123.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 16.5N 126.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 16.5N 128.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

2018-10-02 21:34

WTPZ31 KNHC 022030
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 02 2018

...SERGIO QUICKLY STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 115.1W
ABOUT 875 MI...1410 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 115.1 WEST. SERGIO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY, AND A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH (185 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SERGIO IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES
(240 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB (28.50 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

....
FORECASTER PASCH

2018-10-02 21:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 022030 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
2100 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 115.1W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 130SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 115.1W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 114.6W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 12.0N 116.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.1N 117.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.2N 119.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 15.2N 120.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.3N 123.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

2018-10-02 21:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 022030
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
2100 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 115.1W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 130SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 115.1W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 114.6W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 12.0N 116.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.1N 117.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.2N 119.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 15.2N 120.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.3N 123.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 16.5N 126.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 16.5N 128.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N 115.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

2018-10-02 19:35

WTPZ61 KNHC 021845
TCUEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
1145 AM PDT TUE OCT 02 2018

...SERGIO BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SERGIO IS QUICKLY STRENGTHENING,
AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AN ESTIMATED 115 MPH
(185 KM/H), WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS INCREASE IN INTENSITY WILL BE
REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST ISSUED IN THE 2 PM PDT (2100
UTC) ADVISORY PACKAGE.


SUMMARY OF 1145 AM PDT...1845 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 114.7W
ABOUT 870 MI...1400 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES

....
FORECASTER BRENNAN/PASCH

2018-10-02 15:55

WTPZ41 KNHC 021433 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
900 AM MDT TUE OCT 02 2018

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF SERGIO CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE HURRICANE HAS A VERY COLD CLOUD-TOPPED
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST, WITH A DEVELOPING EYE, SURROUNDED BY CURVED
BANDING FEATURES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 85 KT BASED ON A
BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. SERGIO IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING OVER WARM WATERS, UNDER MODERATE
VERTICAL SHEAR AND WITHIN A MOIST MID-LEVEL AIRMASS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THEREFORE, ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY, AND SERGIO
WILL PROBABLY BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS, IVCN.

THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PACE,
AND THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/11 KT. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL SOON BE ERODING, DUE TO A TROUGH DROPPING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS CHANGE IN STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD
RESULT IN SERGIO TURNING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TODAY FOLLOWED
BY A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IN 2-3 DAYS. IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN, AND THIS IS LIKELY TO
CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST. THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND FOLLOWS THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS, TVCN, FAIRLY CLOSELY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 10.6N 114.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 11.2N 115.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 12.2N 116.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 13.3N 118.2W 105 KT 120 MPH

2018-10-02 15:55

WTPZ41 KNHC 021433
TCDEP1

Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
900 AM MDT Tue Oct 02 2018

The cloud pattern of Sergio continues to become better organized on
satellite imagery. The hurricane has a very cold cloud-topped
central dense overcast, with a developing eye, surrounded by curved
banding features. The current intensity is set at 85 kt based on a
blend of subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. Sergio is
forecast to continue moving over warm waters, under moderate
vertical shear and within a moist mid-level airmass for the next
few days. Therefore, additional strengthening is likely, and Sergio
will probably become a major hurricane in a day or so. The official
intensity forecast is close to the latest model consensus, IVCN.

The hurricane has been moving westward at a slightly slower pace,
and the motion estimate is 270/11 kt. A mid-level ridge to the
north of the system will soon be eroding, due to a trough dropping
in from the northwest. This change in steering currents should
result in Sergio turning toward the west-northwest today followed
by a northwestward motion in 2-3 days. In the latter part of the
forecast period, the ridge builds back in, and this is likely to
cause the tropical cyclone to turn back toward the west. The NHC
track forecast is similar to the previous one and follows the
dynamical model consensus, TVCN, fairly closely.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 10.6N 114.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 11.2N 115.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 12.2N 116.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 13.3N 118.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 14.3N 119.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 15.9N 122.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 16.5N 125.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 16.5N 128.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

2018-10-02 15:55

WTPZ31 KNHC 021433
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
900 AM MDT TUE OCT 02 2018

...SERGIO STILL STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.6N 114.0W
ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 114.0 WEST. SERGIO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY, AND A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH (155 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND SERGIO IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR MAJOR
HURRICANE STRENGTH BY WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES
(205 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB (28.88 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 PM MDT.

....
FORECASTER PASCH

2018-10-02 15:55

WTPZ21 KNHC 021432 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
1500 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 114.0W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 114.0W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 113.5W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 11.2N 115.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 12.2N 116.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.3N 118.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 14.3N 119.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.9N 122.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

2018-10-02 15:55

WTPZ21 KNHC 021432
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
1500 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 114.0W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 114.0W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 113.5W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 11.2N 115.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 12.2N 116.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.3N 118.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 14.3N 119.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.9N 122.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 16.5N 125.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 16.5N 128.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.6N 114.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

2018-10-02 09:35

WTPZ41 KNHC 020852 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
300 AM MDT TUE OCT 02 2018

GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SERGIO CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN. THE CENTER IS LOCATED WITHIN A FAIRLY SYMMETRIC CDO
WITH CLOUD TOPS OF -70 TO -80 DEGREES C. EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA
SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED EYE AND INNER CORE, BUT A MORE RECENT AMSU
OVERPASS SUGGESTS THAT THERE HAS BEEN SOME SLIGHT EROSION OF THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE EYE, POSSIBLY DUE TO SOME INTRUSION OF DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGED FROM 75 TO 90 KT,
AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO A POSSIBILITY
CONSERVATIVE 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. ALTHOUGH
SERGIO HAS DEVELOPED AN INNER CORE AND STRENGTHENED DURING THE PAST
12 HOUR OR SO, THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR
WILL INCREASE OVER THE HURRICANE TODAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO TEMPER
THE INTENSIFICATION SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, HOWEVER,
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS AT LEAST GRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN WIND SPEED OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS, AND IS CLOSE TO
THE IVCN MODEL CONSENSUS. AFTER 72 H, COOLER WATERS AND THE
ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING.

SERGIO IS MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST OR 265/12 KT. THE
HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE,
AND SERGIO SHOULD CONTINUE WESTWARD TODAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, WHICH SHOULD CAUSE SERGIO TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, THEN

2018-10-02 09:35

WTPZ41 KNHC 020852
TCDEP1

Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
300 AM MDT Tue Oct 02 2018

Geostationary satellite imagery indicates that Sergio continues to
strengthen. The center is located within a fairly symmetric CDO
with cloud tops of -70 to -80 degrees C. Earlier microwave data
showed a well-defined eye and inner core, but a more recent AMSU
overpass suggests that there has been some slight erosion of the
eastern portion of the eye, possibly due to some intrusion of dry
mid-level air. Dvorak intensity estimates ranged from 75 to 90 kt,
and the initial intensity has been increased to a possibility
conservative 75 kt for this advisory.

The intensity forecast remains somewhat uncertain. Although
Sergio has developed an inner core and strengthened during the past
12 hour or so, the dynamical models suggest northeasterly shear
will increase over the hurricane today. This is expected to temper
the intensification somewhat over the next 12-24 hours, however,
most of the guidance shows at least gradual strengthening during
the next day or so. The NHC intensity forecast calls for a gradual
increase in wind speed over the next 36-48 hours, and is close to
the IVCN model consensus. After 72 h, cooler waters and the
entrainment of drier air is expected to cause gradual weakening.

Sergio is moving slightly south of due west or 265/12 kt. The
hurricane is currently located to the south of a mid-level ridge,
and Sergio should continue westward today. The global models show
the western portion of the ridge weakening over the next several
days, which should cause Sergio to turn west-northwestward, then
northwestward on Wednesday. By late in the week, another ridge
is predicted to build to the northwest of Sergio and the hurricane
is forecast to turn back toward the west. The overall guidance
envelope has changed little this cycle, and the new NHC track is
similar to the previous advisory and close to the various consensus
aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 10.7N 113.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 10.9N 114.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 11.7N 116.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 12.7N 117.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 13.8N 119.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 15.6N 121.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 16.5N 124.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 16.7N 127.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-02 09:35

WTPZ21 KNHC 020852 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
0900 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 113.2W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 113.2W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 112.7W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 10.9N 114.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 11.7N 116.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 12.7N 117.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.8N 119.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.6N 121.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

2018-10-02 09:35

WTPZ21 KNHC 020852
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
0900 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 113.2W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 113.2W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 112.7W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 10.9N 114.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 11.7N 116.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 12.7N 117.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.8N 119.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.6N 121.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 16.5N 124.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 16.7N 127.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.7N 113.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

2018-10-02 03:34

WTPZ41 KNHC 020258 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
900 PM MDT MON OCT 01 2018

A JUST-RECEIVED GMI OVERPASS INDICATES THAT SERGIO HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED WITH FORMATION OF A WELL-DEFINED EYE AND EYEWALL UNDER A
CONVECTIVE OVERCAST WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -85C. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE IN THE 55-65 KT RANGE, AND BASED ON THE IMPROVED
STRUCTURE, THE INTENSITY WILL BE SET AT THE UPPER END OF THAT RANGE.
THUS, SERGIO IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE. THE BETTER STRUCTURE OF
SERGIO IS NOW CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR TO INCREASE
TO 20-25 KT BY 24 H, WHICH SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO STOP RAPID
DEVELOPMENT, ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT LEAST SLOW
STRENGTHENING DURING THIS TIME. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
GUIDANCE TREND IN CALLING FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING, BUT THERE COULD
BE A 12-H OR SO BURST OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE SHEAR GETS
TOO STRONG. THE SHEAR SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER ABOUT 36 H WHILE SERGIO
IS STILL OVER WARM WATER, AND THE FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING
A MAJOR HURRICANE NEAR THE 72 H POINT IN RESPONSE TO THE MORE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. AFTER 72 H, A COMBINATION OF DECREASING
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND ENTRAINMENT OF
DRIER AIR SHOULD LEAD TO GRADUAL WEAKENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 265/12. AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION,
A WESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE STORM REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A

2018-10-02 03:34

WTPZ41 KNHC 020258
TCDEP1

Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
900 PM MDT Mon Oct 01 2018

A just-received GMI overpass indicates that Sergio has become better
organized with formation of a well-defined eye and eyewall under a
convective overcast with cloud tops to -85C. Satellite intensity
estimates are in the 55-65 kt range, and based on the improved
structure, the intensity will be set at the upper end of that range.
Thus, Sergio is upgraded to a hurricane.

The intensity forecast is low confidence. The better structure of
Sergio is now conducive for rapid intensification. However, the
large-scale models forecast northeasterly vertical shear to increase
to 20-25 kt by 24 h, which should be strong enough to stop rapid
development, although the guidance suggests at least slow
strengthening during this time. The intensity forecast follows the
guidance trend in calling for gradual strengthening, but there could
be a 12-h or so burst of rapid intensification before the shear gets
too strong. The shear should subside after about 36 h while Sergio
is still over warm water, and the forecast shows the system becoming
a major hurricane near the 72 h point in response to the more
favorable conditions. After 72 h, a combination of decreasing
sea-surface temperatures along the forecast track and entrainment of
drier air should lead to gradual weakening.

The initial motion is 265/12. As stated in the previous discussion,
a westward motion at about the same forward speed is expected during
the next day or so while the storm remains on the south side of a
mid-level ridge. A turn to the west-northwest is forecast by late
Tuesday, followed by a northwestward motion on Wednesday as the
western portion of the mid-level ridge erodes due to a large scale
mid- to upper-level trough near the southwestern United States. By
the end of the forecast period, a ridge is expected to build to the
north of Sergio, which should cause a turn back toward the west. The
track guidance has changed little since the last advisory, and the
new NHC track is close to both the previous forecast track and the
consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 10.9N 112.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 11.2N 113.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 11.7N 115.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 12.6N 117.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 13.7N 118.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 16.0N 121.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 17.0N 124.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 17.5N 127.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-10-02 03:34

WTPZ31 KNHC 020250
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
900 PM MDT MON OCT 01 2018

...SERGIO BECOMES A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.9N 112.0W
ABOUT 760 MI...1220 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 10.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 112.0 WEST. SERGIO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH (120 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES
(205 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB (29.30 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 AM MDT.

....
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-10-02 03:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 020249 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
0300 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 112.0W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 112.0W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 111.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 11.2N 113.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 11.7N 115.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 12.6N 117.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.7N 118.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.0N 121.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

2018-10-02 03:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 020249
TCMEP1

HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
0300 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 112.0W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 112.0W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 111.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 11.2N 113.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 11.7N 115.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 12.6N 117.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.7N 118.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.0N 121.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 17.0N 124.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 17.5N 127.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.9N 112.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-10-01 21:30

WTPZ41 KNHC 012033 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
300 PM MDT MON OCT 01 2018

SERGIO HAS NOT STRENGTHENED LIKE THE MODELS AND NHC HAVE PREDICTED
UP TO THIS POINT. ALTHOUGH THE STORM CONTINUES TO HAVE A
WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE
CIRCULATION, THERE ARE PRONOUNCED DRY SLOTS THAT HAVE ENTRAINED INTO
THE INNER CORE. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW A WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL EYE, BUT THE MID-LEVEL STRUCTURE IS LESS ORGANIZED NOW AS
COMPARED TO SEVERAL HOURS AGO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AGAIN HELD
AT 60 KT, IN AGREEMENT WITH AN AVERAGE OF THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
FROM TAFB AND SAB.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING. THE WIND SHEAR AROUND
SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BESIDES FOR
A BRIEF INCREASE IN THE 24- TO 48-HOUR TIME PERIOD. THESE
CONDITIONS AND WARM SSTS BENEATH THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS SUPPORT STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE STORM
HAS BEEN STRUGGLING WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND THAT COULD CONTINUE
TO PLAGUE THE SYSTEM. THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STEADY
STRENGTHENING, AND THE NHC FORECAST DOES LIKEWISE. HOWEVER, THIS
FORECAST SHOWS A SLOWER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM.
BEYOND A FEW DAYS, A COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY LOWER SSTS AND A
DECREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD CAUSE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE IVCN MODEL.

SERGIO IS MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST AT 11 KT. A WESTWARD
MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO WHILE THE STORM REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL

2018-10-01 21:30

WTPZ41 KNHC 012033
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
300 PM MDT Mon Oct 01 2018

Sergio has not strengthened like the models and NHC have predicted
up to this point. Although the storm continues to have a
well-defined curved band over the south and east portions of the
circulation, there are pronounced dry slots that have entrained into
the inner core. Recent microwave images show a well-defined
low-level eye, but the mid-level structure is less organized now as
compared to several hours ago. The initial intensity is again held
at 60 kt, in agreement with an average of the Dvorak classifications
from TAFB and SAB.

The intensity forecast remains challenging. The wind shear around
Sergio is expected to be low for the next several days, besides for
a brief increase in the 24- to 48-hour time period. These
conditions and warm SSTs beneath the cyclone during the next few
days support strengthening. However, as mentioned above, the storm
has been struggling with dry air entrainment and that could continue
to plague the system. The latest models continue to show steady
strengthening, and the NHC forecast does likewise. However, this
forecast shows a slower rate of intensification in the short term.
Beyond a few days, a combination of slightly lower SSTs and a
decrease in moisture should cause a slow weakening trend. The NHC
intensity forecast is in best agreement with the IVCN model.

Sergio is moving just south of due west at 11 kt. A westward
motion at about the same forward speed is expected during the next
day or so while the storm remains on the south side of a mid-level
ridge. A turn to the west-northwest is expected by late Tuesday
followed by a northwestward motion on Wednesday as the western
portion of the mid-level ridge erodes due to a large scale mid- to
upper-level trough near the southwestern U.S. By the end of the
forecast period, a ridge is expected to build to the north of
Sergio, which should cause a turn back to the left. The models
have shifted to the south and west this cycle, and the NHC track
forecast has been adjusted in those directions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 11.3N 111.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 11.3N 112.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 11.6N 114.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 12.4N 116.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 13.5N 118.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 15.4N 120.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 17.0N 123.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 17.8N 126.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-10-01 21:30

WTPZ31 KNHC 012033
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
300 PM MDT MON OCT 01 2018

...SERGIO REMAINS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 111.0W
ABOUT 695 MI...1115 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 805 MI...1295 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 111.0 WEST. SERGIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND
SERGIO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES (205 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB (29.39 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 PM MDT.

....
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-10-01 21:30

WTPZ21 KNHC 012032 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
2100 UTC MON OCT 01 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 111.0W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 120SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 111.0W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 110.4W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 11.3N 112.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 11.6N 114.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 12.4N 116.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.5N 118.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 15.4N 120.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

2018-10-01 21:30

WTPZ21 KNHC 012032
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
2100 UTC MON OCT 01 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 111.0W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 120SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 111.0W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 110.4W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 11.3N 112.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 11.6N 114.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 12.4N 116.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.5N 118.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 15.4N 120.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 17.0N 123.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 17.8N 126.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 111.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-10-01 15:40

WTPZ41 KNHC 011433 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
900 AM MDT MON OCT 01 2018

SERGIO IS ALMOST A HURRICANE. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE
CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING IN INTENSITY DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS, BUT THERE ARE STILL NO INDICATIONS OF AN EYE IN
THAT DATA. MICROWAVE IMAGERY DOES SHOW AN EYE FEATURE, HOWEVER.
THE OUTER BANDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY WELL ORGANIZED, AND THERE ARE
SOME DRY SLOTS BEYOND THE INNER CORE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD
AT 60 KT, FOLLOWING A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES.

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO
BULLISH ON SERGIO STRENGTHENING DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS COULD BE DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY SLOTS THAT WERE NOT WELL
PREDICTED BY BOTH THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. LOOKING
AHEAD TO THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
MIXED. THE WIND SHEAR AND SSTS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, SO STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS
PREDICTED DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER, AS SEEN DURING THE PAST
DAY OR TWO, DRY AIR COULD SLOW THE INTENSIFICATION RATE. BEYOND A
COUPLE OF DAYS, THE MODELS SHOW A BRIEF INCREASE IN SHEAR AND A
STEADY DECREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SSTS. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY END THE OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING AND CAUSE A SLOW
WEAKENING TREND. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOUT THE SAME AS
THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND IT LIES BETWEEN THE USUALLY RELIABLE HCCA AND
IVCN CONSENSUS MODELS.

SERGIO IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KT STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO

2018-10-01 15:40

WTPZ41 KNHC 011433
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
900 AM MDT Mon Oct 01 2018

Sergio is almost a hurricane. Satellite images indicate that the
central convection has been increasing in intensity during the past
several hours, but there are still no indications of an eye in
that data. Microwave imagery does show an eye feature, however.
The outer bands are not particularly well organized, and there are
some dry slots beyond the inner core. The initial intensity is held
at 60 kt, following a blend of the latest Dvorak estimates.

As mentioned in the previous discussion, the models have been too
bullish on Sergio strengthening during the past couple of days.
This could be due to the aforementioned dry slots that were not well
predicted by both the statistical and dynamical guidance. Looking
ahead to the next several days, the environmental conditions are
mixed. The wind shear and SSTs appear conducive for strengthening
during the next couple of days, so steady intensification is
predicted during that time period. However, as seen during the past
day or two, dry air could slow the intensification rate. Beyond a
couple of days, the models show a brief increase in shear and a
steady decrease in mid-level moisture and SSTs. These conditions
will likely end the opportunity for strengthening and cause a slow
weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast is about the same as
the previous one, and it lies between the usually reliable HCCA and
IVCN consensus models.

Sergio is moving westward at 10 kt steered by a mid-level ridge to
its north and northeast. A continued westward motion is expected
for another day followed by a turn to the west-northwest and then
the northwest as the western side of the ridge weakens due to a
large-scale trough near the southwestern United States. By the end
of the forecast period, a ridge is expected to build to the north of
Sergio, which should cause a turn back to the left. The models are
in very good agreement overall, and little change has been made to
the previous forecast track.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 11.5N 109.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 11.4N 111.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 11.7N 113.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 12.4N 115.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 13.3N 116.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 15.3N 119.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 17.0N 121.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 18.0N 124.3W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-10-01 15:40

WTPZ31 KNHC 011433
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
900 AM MDT MON OCT 01 2018

...SERGIO JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 109.5W
ABOUT 625 MI...1000 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 790 MI...1265 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 109.5 WEST. SERGIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND
SERGIO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY, AND A MAJOR
HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES (205 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB (29.39 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 PM MDT.

....
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-10-01 15:40

WTPZ21 KNHC 011432 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
1500 UTC MON OCT 01 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 109.5W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 120SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 109.5W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 108.9W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 11.4N 111.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 11.7N 113.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 12.4N 115.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 13.3N 116.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 15.3N 119.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

2018-10-01 15:40

WTPZ21 KNHC 011432
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
1500 UTC MON OCT 01 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 109.5W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 120SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 109.5W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 108.9W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 11.4N 111.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 11.7N 113.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 12.4N 115.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 13.3N 116.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 15.3N 119.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 17.0N 121.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 18.0N 124.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 109.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-10-01 12:34

WTPZ31 KNHC 010853 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
300 AM MDT MON OCT 01 2018

...SERGIO STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC OCEAN...
............................................................EXPECTED
TO
BECOME
A
HURRICANE
LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 108.6W
ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 790 MI...1275 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 108.6 WEST. SERGIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS, AND SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY, AND
A MAJOR HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES (205 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB (29.39 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

2018-10-01 09:37

WTPZ41 KNHC 010854 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
300 AM MDT MON OCT 01 2018

SERGIO'S CONVECTIVE PATTERN IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS WAXED
AND WANED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A PREVIOUSLY LARGE, SOLID
CURVED BAND HAS BECOME BROKEN DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS, BUT
THE COMMA HEAD OR CDO OF THE CLOUD BAND HAS INCREASED IN SIZE WHILE
CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED TO NEAR -80C. PASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT WITHIN THE COMMA HEAD FEATURE AN 18-20-NMI-WIDE
CLOSED EYE HAS DEVELOPED IN THE LOW-LEVELS, WHILE THE MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL EYE REMAINS OPEN AND RAGGED. SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES REMAIN T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. HOWEVER, BASED ON THE
WELL-DEFINED, LOW-LEVEL EYE, THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN NUDGED UPWARD TO
60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 270/12 KT, BASED PRIMARILY ON MICROWAVE
SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS. SERGIO IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY
WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
STRONG, DEEP-LAYER RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. BY 48
HOURS, A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG AND
OFFSHORE OF THE WESTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE THE
WESTERN PART OF THE RIDGE, ALLOWING SERGIO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ON DAY 2 AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ON DAYS 3-5. THE NEW NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK, AND LIES NEAR A
BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS TCVA, TVCE, AND HCCA.

BOTH THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO
BULLISH ON SERGIO STRENGTHENING DURING THE PAST 36 HOURS. ALTHOUGH
THE ENVIRONMENT IS QUITE MOIST WITH NEAR 80 PERCENT MID-LEVEL

2018-10-01 09:37

WTPZ41 KNHC 010854
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
300 AM MDT Mon Oct 01 2018

Sergio's convective pattern in infrared satellite imagery has waxed
and waned since the previous advisory. A previously large, solid
curved band has become broken during the past couple of hours, but
the comma head or CDO of the cloud band has increased in size while
cloud tops have cooled to near -80C. Passive microwave imagery
indicates that within the comma head feature an 18-20-nmi-wide
closed eye has developed in the low-levels, while the mid- and
upper-level eye remains open and ragged. Subjective intensity
estimates remain T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB. However, based on the
well-defined, low-level eye, the intensity has been nudged upward to
60 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion is now 270/12 kt, based primarily on microwave
satellite fix positions. Sergio is forecast to move generally
westward for the next 36 hours or so, under the influence of a
strong, deep-layer ridge located to the north of the cyclone. By 48
hours, a mid- to upper-level trough moving southeastward along and
offshore of the western U.S. is expected to gradually erode the
western part of the ridge, allowing Sergio turn west-northwestward
on day 2 and move northwestward on days 3-5. The new NHC track
forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies near a
blend of the consensus models TCVA, TVCE, and HCCA.

Both the statistical and dynamical intensity models have been too
bullish on Sergio strengthening during the past 36 hours. Although
the environment is quite moist with near 80 percent mid-level
humidity values, a pronounced dry intrusion eroding the inner-core
convection remains. By the time the dry air mixes out, modest
northerly vertical wind shear is expected to hinder development in
the 24-48 hour period. By 72 hours and beyond, the shear is
forecast to decrease below 10 kt, but Sergio will be moving over
cooler waters at that time. Given the mixed environmental signals,
the official intensity is on the conservative side and remains well
below the stronger HCCA and FSSE models, and closer to the simple
consensus model IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 11.5N 108.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 11.4N 110.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 11.5N 112.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 12.0N 114.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 12.8N 116.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 14.9N 118.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 16.8N 121.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 17.9N 123.2W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-01 09:37

WTPZ31 KNHC 010853
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
300 AM MDT MON OCT 01 2018

...SERGIO STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC OCEAN...
............EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 108.6W
ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 790 MI...1275 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 108.6 WEST. SERGIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS, AND SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY, AND
A MAJOR HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES (205 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB (29.39 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 AM MDT.

...........
FORECASTER STEWART

2018-10-01 09:37

WTPZ21 KNHC 010852 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
0900 UTC MON OCT 01 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 108.6W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 108.6W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 108.0W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 11.4N 110.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 11.5N 112.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 12.0N 114.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 12.8N 116.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.9N 118.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

2018-10-01 09:37

WTPZ21 KNHC 010852
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
0900 UTC MON OCT 01 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 108.6W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 108.6W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 108.0W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 11.4N 110.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 11.5N 112.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 12.0N 114.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 12.8N 116.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.9N 118.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 16.8N 121.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 17.9N 123.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 108.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

2018-10-01 03:35

WTPZ41 KNHC 010237 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
900 PM MDT SUN SEP 30 2018

OVERALL, SERGIO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS COMPRISED OF A RAGGED
BAND WRAPPING ABOUT THREE-QUARTERS OF THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER,
WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. RECENT
MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER SEEN
EARLIER HAS LOST SOME DEFINITION. HOWEVER, THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER SEEMS TO BE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT BASED ON UNCHANGED SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 260/11. FOR THE NEXT 36 H OR SO, SERGIO
SHOULD MOVE WESTWARD OR JUST SOUTH OF DUE WESTWARD AROUND THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM MEXICO WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. AFTER THAT TIME, A
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG AND OFFSHORE
OF THE WESTERN U.S. WILL ERODE THE WESTERN PART OF THE RIDGE. THIS
DEVELOPMENT WILL ALLOW SERGIO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS AND IS AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SERGIO TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY IN THE
NEXT 36 H IF THE CYCLONE CAN BECOME WELL ENOUGH ORGANIZED TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF THE ENVIRONMENT. THIS PART OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST
PRESUMES THIS WILL HAPPEN AND IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST OF QUICK STRENGTHENING. FROM 36-48 H, A BURST OF
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT SERGIO, WHICH SHOULD AT

2018-10-01 03:35

WTPZ41 KNHC 010237
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
900 PM MDT Sun Sep 30 2018

Overall, Sergio has changed little in organization over the past
several hours. The convective pattern is comprised of a ragged
band wrapping about three-quarters of the way around the center,
with the strongest convection to the north of the center. Recent
microwave data show that the mid-level circulation center seen
earlier has lost some definition. However, the low-level
circulation center seems to be becoming better defined. The
initial intensity remains 55 kt based on unchanged satellite
intensity estimates.

The initial motion remains 260/11. For the next 36 h or so, Sergio
should move westward or just south of due westward around the
southern periphery of a large deep-layer subtropical ridge extending
from Mexico westward across the eastern Pacific. After that time, a
mid- to upper-level trough moving southeastward along and offshore
of the western U.S. will erode the western part of the ridge. This
development will allow Sergio turn west-northwestward to
northwestward with a gradual decrease in forward speed. The new
forecast track is near the various consensus models and is an
update of the previous track.

Conditions appear favorable for Sergio to rapidly intensify in the
next 36 h if the cyclone can become well enough organized to take
advantage of the environment. This part of the intensity forecast
presumes this will happen and is unchanged from the previous
forecast of quick strengthening. From 36-48 h, a burst of
northeasterly shear is expected to affect Sergio, which should at
least slow intensification. Based on this and the shear letting up
at 72 h, the intensity forecast is tweaked to show the peak
intensity after the shear decreases. After 72 h, decreasing sea
surface temperatures along the forecast track should cause a gradual
weakening.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 11.6N 107.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 11.4N 109.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 11.3N 111.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 11.6N 113.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 12.4N 115.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 14.5N 118.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 16.5N 120.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 18.0N 122.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-10-01 03:35

WTPZ31 KNHC 010236
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
900 PM MDT SUN SEP 30 2018

...SERGIO MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS AND EXPECTED
TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATE TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 107.3W
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 107.3 WEST. SERGIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND
SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATE TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY
AND A MAJOR HURRICANE BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES (205 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB (29.47 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 AM MDT.

....
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-10-01 03:35

WTPZ21 KNHC 010236 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
0300 UTC MON OCT 01 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 107.3W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 107.3W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 106.7W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 11.4N 109.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 11.3N 111.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 11.6N 113.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 12.4N 115.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 14.5N 118.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

2018-10-01 03:35

WTPZ21 KNHC 010236
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
0300 UTC MON OCT 01 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 107.3W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 107.3W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 106.7W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 11.4N 109.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 11.3N 111.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 11.6N 113.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 12.4N 115.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 14.5N 118.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 16.5N 120.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 18.0N 122.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 107.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-10-01 00:33

WTPZ31 KNHC 302034 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
300 PM MDT SUN SEP 30 2018

...SERGIO SLOWLY INTENSIFYING AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD OVER THE
OPEN PACIFIC WATERS...
....................................................................ST
...STI
..STIL
.STILL
EXPECTED
TO
BECOME
A
HURRICANE
TONIGHT
OR
EARLY
MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 106.3W
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 106.3 WEST. SERGIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H) AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT AND A
MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES (205 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB (29.47 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 PM MDT.

2018-09-30 21:33

WTPZ41 KNHC 302035 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
300 PM MDT SUN SEP 30 2018

SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS WELL AS MICROWAVE
AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF SERGIO IS
FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED. THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER HAS BECOME RAGGED IN APPEARANCE AND ELONGATED FROM
EAST-WEST. HOWEVER, MICROWAVE DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL-DEFINED
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION, AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
UNANIMOUSLY SUPPORTING 55 KT, WHICH WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY
FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 260/11 KT, PARTIALLY DUE TO
ADJUSTMENT OF THE CENTER FARTHER SOUTH. OTHERWISE, THERE ARE NO
CHANGES IN THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, SERGIO SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD
OR JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE
DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO WESTWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. BY 48 HOURS, A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG AND OFFSHORE OF THE WESTERN U.S.
WILL ERODE THE WESTERN PART OF THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
CYCLONE TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD FROM 48- TO
96-HOURS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. VERY NEAR THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD AND LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE.
THIS PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD INDUCE A MORE WESTWARD TURN BY 120 HOURS.

DESPITE THE CURRENT RAGGED APPEARANCE OF THE CYCLONE, THE
ENVIRONMENT OF LOW-SHEAR, HIGH-MOISTURE, AND WARM WATERS ARE

2018-09-30 21:33

WTPZ41 KNHC 302035
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
300 PM MDT Sun Sep 30 2018

Satellite imagery over the past several hours as well as microwave
and scatterometer data indicate that the center of Sergio is
farther south than previously analyzed. The deep convection near
the center has become ragged in appearance and elongated from
east-west. However, microwave data continues to show a well-defined
mid-level circulation, and satellite intensity estimates are
unanimously supporting 55 kt, which will be the initial intensity
for this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is now 260/11 kt, partially due to
adjustment of the center farther south. Otherwise, there are no
changes in the forecast track philosophy from the previous advisory.
For the next couple of days, Sergio should move generally westward
or just south of due west around the southern periphery of a large
deep-layer subtropical ridge extending from Mexico westward
across the eastern Pacific. By 48 hours, a mid- to upper-level
trough moving southeastward along and offshore of the western U.S.
will erode the western part of the ridge. This will allow the
cyclone to turn west-northwestward to northwestward from 48- to
96-hours with a gradual decrease in forward speed. Very near the end
of the forecast period, the trough should shift eastward and low-
to mid-level ridging should build to the northwest of the cyclone.
This pattern change should induce a more westward turn by 120 hours.

Despite the current ragged appearance of the cyclone, the
environment of low-shear, high-moisture, and warm waters are
expected to support a period of rapid intensification sometime
within the next 36 hours or so. By 36 hours, northeasterly shear is
expected to develop over the storm and increase to 25 kt by 48
hours. This should at least limit the rate of intensification if not
weaken the cyclone slightly from 48- to 72-hours. After that time,
global models indicate that the shear will lessen to under 10 kt for
the remainder of the forecast period. There may be a window of time
beginning after 72 hours where some additional strengthening could
occur. By 96 hours, the system will then be moving over waters of
26-27 C very near a gradient of cooler SSTs just to the north. The
current intensity forecast calls for a steadying of intensity after
the shear abates, then a slow weakening trend commences by the end
of the period due to cooler SSTs. Other than a slight delay in
Sergio becoming a hurricane, the intensity forecast is essentially
the same as the previous forecast and remains close to the
dynamical model consensus. Based on this intensity forecast, Sergio
is still forecast to become a major hurricane on Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 11.5N 106.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 11.4N 108.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 11.2N 110.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 11.4N 112.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 11.9N 114.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 13.8N 117.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 16.0N 120.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 17.3N 122.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto/Cangialosi

2018-09-30 21:33

WTPZ31 KNHC 302034
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
300 PM MDT SUN SEP 30 2018

...SERGIO SLOWLY INTENSIFYING AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD OVER THE
OPEN PACIFIC WATERS...
..................STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR
EARLY
MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 106.3W
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 106.3 WEST. SERGIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H) AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT AND A
MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES (205 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB (29.47 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 PM MDT.

.................
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/LATTO

2018-09-30 21:33

WTPZ21 KNHC 302034 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
2100 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 106.3W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 106.3W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 105.8W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 11.4N 108.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 11.2N 110.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 11.4N 112.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 11.9N 114.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.8N 117.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

2018-09-30 21:33

WTPZ21 KNHC 302034
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
2100 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 106.3W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 106.3W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 105.8W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 11.4N 108.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 11.2N 110.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 11.4N 112.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 11.9N 114.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.8N 117.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 16.0N 120.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 17.3N 122.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 106.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/LATTO

2018-09-30 19:36

WTPZ31 KNHC 301457 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
1000 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2018

...SERGIO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO...
.....................................................................
......
......
.....E
....EX
...EXP
..EXPE
.EXPEC
EXPECT
XPECTE
PECTED
TO
BECOME
A
HURRICANE
BY
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.1N 105.4W
ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 105.4 WEST. SERGIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H) AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND
SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT AND A MAJOR
HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES (205 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB (29.50 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

2018-09-30 15:34

WTPZ41 KNHC 301457 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
1000 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2018

RECENT MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE INNER CORE OF SERGIO
CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED, WITH AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE
EVIDENT. HOWEVER, THIS EYE FEATURE IS NOT YET APPARENT IN
GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY. DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES OF -70 C ARE CONCENTRATED AROUND THE STORM'S CENTER AS
WELL AS ALONG A PROMINENT BANDING FEATURE ON THE SOUTH SIDE. THE
AVERAGE OF AVAILABLE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN
INTENSITY OF 50 KT, WHICH WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS
ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/11 KT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FEW FORECASTS. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, SERGIO
SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD OR JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM MEXICO WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
BY 48 HOURS, A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
ALONG AND OFFSHORE THE WESTERN U.S., WHICH WILL ERODE THE RIDGE FROM
THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THEN NORTHWESTWARD FROM 48- TO 96-HOURS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THEREAFTER, THE TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD AND LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE.
THIS PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD INDUCE A MORE WESTWARD TURN TOWARD
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

SERGIO WILL REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW-SHEAR, HIGH-MOISTURE,
AND OVER WARM WATERS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO, WHICH SHOULD

2018-09-30 15:34

WTPZ41 KNHC 301457
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 30 2018

Recent microwave data indicate that the inner core of Sergio
continues to become better defined, with an eye-like feature
evident. However, this eye feature is not yet apparent in
geostationary satellite imagery. Deep convection with cloud top
temperatures of -70 C are concentrated around the storm's center as
well as along a prominent banding feature on the south side. The
average of available satellite intensity estimates support an
intensity of 50 kt, which will be the initial intensity for this
advisory.

The initial motion estimate is 270/11 kt. There continues to be no
significant changes in the forecast track philosophy from the
previous few forecasts. For the next couple of days, Sergio
should move generally westward or just south of due west
around the southern periphery of a large deep-layer subtropical
ridge that extends from Mexico westward across the eastern Pacific.
By 48 hours, a mid- to upper-level trough will move southeastward
along and offshore the western U.S., which will erode the ridge from
the west. This will allow the cyclone to turn west-northwestward
then northwestward from 48- to 96-hours with a gradual decrease in
forward speed. Thereafter, the trough should shift eastward and low-
to mid-level ridging should build to the northwest of the cyclone.
This pattern change should induce a more westward turn toward
the end of the forecast period.

Sergio will remain in an environment of low-shear, high-moisture,
and over warm waters for the next 24 hours or so, which should
result in rapid intensification. This is in agreement with rapid
intensification indices from the SHIPS model of 40 to 45 percent
over the next 24 hours. By 36 hours, northeasterly shear is expected
to develop over the storm environment and increase to 25 kt by 48
hours. This should at least limit the rate of intensification if not
weaken the cyclone slightly from 48- to 72-hours. After that time,
global models indicate that the shear will lessen to under 10 kt by
96 hours, but by that time the system will be moving over waters of
26-27 C very near a gradient of cooler SSTs just to the north. Based
on this, the intensity remains steady from 72- to 96-hours and then
shows slow weakening by the end of the period. The intensity
forecast is a little higher that the previous advisory, and is close
to the dynamical model consensus. Based on this intensity forecast,
Sergio is forecast to become a major hurricane by Tuesday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 12.1N 105.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 12.1N 107.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 11.8N 109.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 11.7N 111.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 12.0N 113.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 13.6N 116.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 16.0N 119.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 17.5N 121.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto/Cangialosi

2018-09-30 15:34

WTPZ31 KNHC 301457
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
1000 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2018

...SERGIO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO...
........EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.1N 105.4W
ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 105.4 WEST. SERGIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H) AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND
SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT AND A MAJOR
HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES (205 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB (29.50 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 PM CDT.

.......
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/LATTO

2018-09-30 15:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 301456 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
1500 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 105.4W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 105.4W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 104.8W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 12.1N 107.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 11.8N 109.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 11.7N 111.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 12.0N 113.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 13.6N 116.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

2018-09-30 15:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 301456
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
1500 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 105.4W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 105.4W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 104.8W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 12.1N 107.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 11.8N 109.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 11.7N 111.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 12.0N 113.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 13.6N 116.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 16.0N 119.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 17.5N 121.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 105.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/LATTO

2018-09-30 12:34

WTPZ31 KNHC 300853 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
400 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2018

...SERGIO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WELL OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO...
..............................................................EXPECTED
TO
BECOME
A
HURRICANE
LATER
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 104.3W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 104.3 WEST. SERGIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H) AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
72 HOURS, AND SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT
AND BE NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES (205 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB (29.56 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 AM CDT.

2018-09-30 09:34

WTPZ41 KNHC 300854 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
400 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2018

MICROWAVE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES, ALONG WITH SCATTEROMETER
WIND DATA, INDICATE THAT SERGIO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED, WITH STRONG CONVECTION NOW MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE
CENTER. HOWEVER, SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED THAT THE INNER-CORE WIND
FIELD IS STILL RATHER LOOSE AND NOT PARTICULARLY WELL-DEFINED QUITE
YET. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED ON A
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A 0536 UTC ASCAT PASS THAT CONTAINED A
FEW 45-KT VECTORS EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/10 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS OR SO, SERGIO SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE, DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS FROM MEXICO WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC.
BY 72 HOURS, A BROAD MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP
SOUTHWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND THE
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC, PRODUCING A BREAK IN THE RIDGE WHICH WILL
ALLOW SERGIO TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD
SPEED THROUGH 120 HOURS. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
BUT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK, AND LIES CLOSE
TO AN AVERAGE OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCE, HCCA, AND FSSE.

SERGIO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A LOW-SHEAR, WARM-WATER, AND
HIGH-MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO, DURING WHICH

2018-09-30 09:34

WTPZ41 KNHC 300854
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
400 AM CDT Sun Sep 30 2018

Microwave and infrared satellite images, along with scatterometer
wind data, indicate that Sergio has continued to become better
organized, with strong convection now more concentrated near the
center. However, scatterometer data showed that the inner-core wind
field is still rather loose and not particularly well-defined quite
yet. The initial intensity has been increased to 45 kt based on a
Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and
SAB, which is supported by a 0536 UTC ASCAT pass that contained a
few 45-kt vectors east of the center.

The initial motion estimate is 270/10 kt. There is no significant
change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. For the next 48
hours or so, Sergio should move generally westward along the
southern periphery of a large, deep-layer subtropical ridge that
extends from Mexico westward across the eastern and central Pacific.
By 72 hours, a broad mid- to upper-level trough is forecast to drop
southward and southeastward over the southwestern U.S. and the
northeastern Pacific, producing a break in the ridge which will
allow Sergio to move toward the northwest at a slower forward
speed through 120 hours. The new NHC track forecast is similar to
but slightly south of the previous advisory track, and lies close
to an average of the consensus models TVCE, HCCA, and FSSE.

Sergio is forecast to remain in a low-shear, warm-water, and
high-moisture environment for the next 36 hours or so, during which
time rapid intensification is expected. In the 48- to 72-hour
period, the vertical shear is forecast by the GFS and ECMWF global
models to increase from the northeast at around 25 kt, which should
act to cap the strengthening process, and possibly even induce some
weakening. By 96 and 120 hours, the shear is expected to decrease
to 5 kt or less, which would favor re-strengthening. However, due
to the uncertainty in how much Sergio's inner-core wind field will
be disrupted by the aforementioned strong shear, the intensity
forecast is simply leveled off at 95 kt at 72 hours and beyond.
The official intensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous
advisory and closely follows the IVCN consensus model, which is
lower than the more robust HCCA and FSSE models, which bring Sergio
to near category 4 strength in 36-48 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 12.0N 104.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 12.0N 105.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 11.9N 108.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 11.6N 110.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 11.7N 112.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 13.0N 115.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 15.2N 118.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 17.1N 120.8W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-09-30 09:34

WTPZ31 KNHC 300853
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
400 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2018

...SERGIO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WELL OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO...
...........EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 104.3W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 104.3 WEST. SERGIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H) AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
72 HOURS, AND SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT
AND BE NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES (205 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB (29.56 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 AM CDT.

..........
FORECASTER STEWART

2018-09-30 09:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 300853 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
0900 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 104.3W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 104.3W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 103.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 12.0N 105.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 11.9N 108.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 11.6N 110.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 11.7N 112.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.0N 115.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

2018-09-30 09:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 300853
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
0900 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 104.3W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 104.3W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 103.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 12.0N 105.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 11.9N 108.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 11.6N 110.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 11.7N 112.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.0N 115.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 15.2N 118.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 17.1N 120.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 104.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

2018-09-30 03:36

WTPZ41 KNHC 300240 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
1000 PM CDT SAT SEP 29 2018

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT SERGIO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH MORE CONCENTRATED CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER. INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PAST
ADVISORY, SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 40 KT, CLOSEST TO THE
CIMSS SATCON. THE STORM SHOULD BE IN A LOW-SHEAR, WARM-WATER, AND
HIGH-MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS. WHILE THERE
ARE NO SIGNS OF AN INNER CORE FORMING YET, THAT USUALLY DOESN'T
STOP STEADY INTENSIFICATION, AND RAPID STRENGTHENING IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY IN A DAY OR TWO. THUS THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS RAISED
FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE A NUMBER OF RELIABLE MODELS SHOWING A HIGHER PEAK
INTENSITY, AN UNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENT AT LONG RANGE LEADS ME TO A MORE
CONSERVATIVE FORECAST. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING AT ALL IF MY
PREDICTION ENDED UP BEING TOO LOW, GIVEN THE INTENSE NATURE OF THIS
EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS CLOSE TO THE PREVOUS ONE, 275/9. SERGIO
SHOULD BE STEERED GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS
BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER MEXICO. AFTER THAT TIME, THE CYCLONE
IS FORECAST TO APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CAUSED BY A LARGE
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA, AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, THE
TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WEST, SO THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION AT MOST TIME PERIODS.

2018-09-30 03:36

WTPZ41 KNHC 300240
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 29 2018

Satellite images indicate that Sergio has become better organized
during the past several hours with more concentrated convection near
the center. Intensity estimates are slightly higher than the past
advisory, so the initial wind speed is set to 40 kt, closest to the
CIMSS SATCON. The storm should be in a low-shear, warm-water, and
high-moisture environment for the next 2 or 3 days. While there
are no signs of an inner core forming yet, that usually doesn't
stop steady intensification, and rapid strengthening is a distinct
possibility in a day or two. Thus the intensity forecast is raised
from the previous one and is close to the consensus. Although
there are a number of reliable models showing a higher peak
intensity, an uncertain environment at long range leads me to a more
conservative forecast. It would not be surprising at all if my
prediction ended up being too low, given the intense nature of this
eastern Pacific hurricane season.

The initial motion is close to the prevous one, 275/9. Sergio
should be steered generally westward for the next two or three days
by the subtropical ridge over Mexico. After that time, the cyclone
is forecast to approach a weakness in the ridge caused by a large
mid- to upper-level trough over California, and this should lead to
a turn toward the northwest. Similar to the previous advisory, the
track guidance has shifted slightly south and west, so the official
forecast is nudged in that direction at most time periods.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 12.3N 103.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 12.4N 104.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 12.3N 106.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 12.0N 109.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 11.8N 111.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 12.9N 114.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 15.0N 117.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 17.0N 120.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-09-30 03:36

WTPZ31 KNHC 300238
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
1000 PM CDT SAT SEP 29 2018

...SERGIO GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING WELL SOUTH OF THE COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 103.3W
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 103.3 WEST. SERGIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H) AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS,
AND SERGIO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY AND A MAJOR HURRICANE
ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES (205 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB (29.62 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 AM CDT.

....
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-09-30 03:36

WTPZ21 KNHC 300238 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
0300 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 103.3W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 103.3W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 102.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 12.4N 104.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 12.3N 106.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 12.0N 109.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 11.8N 111.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 12.9N 114.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

2018-09-30 03:36

WTPZ21 KNHC 300238
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
0300 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 103.3W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 103.3W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 102.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 12.4N 104.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 12.3N 106.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 12.0N 109.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 11.8N 111.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 12.9N 114.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 15.0N 117.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 17.0N 120.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 103.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-09-29 21:34

WTPZ41 KNHC 292042 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
400 PM CDT SAT SEP 29 2018

RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA CONFIRMS THAT SERGIO IS AT TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH, BUT WITH A SLIGHTLY UNEXPECTED TWIST - THE MAXIMUM WINDS
ARE IN A BAND ABOUT 110 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER AND THERE IS NO
INNER WIND CORE AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT
BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETER DATA. SERGIO CURRENTLY HAS GOOD CIRRUS
OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS, BUT THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE THAT NORTHERLY
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BELOW THE LEVEL OF THE OUTFLOW ARE CAUSING SOME
LIGHT SHEAR.

SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR
AND HIGH HUMIDITY, AND OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE
NEXT 3 DAYS OR SO, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY STRENGTHENING.
THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE ENOUGH FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION,
ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT STORM STRUCTURE DOES NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
QUICK STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE FIRST 24-36 H, WITH A FASTER RATE FROM
36-72 H AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED. NEAR THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE STORM MAY ENCOUNTER INCREASING
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WHICH COULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION, AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND JUST ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS,
AND THE FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD IN SUBSEQUENT
ADVISORIES. THE WIND RADII FORECAST HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON
THE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND THE LATEST RADII GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 275/10. SERGIO SHOULD BE STEERED

2018-09-29 21:34

WTPZ41 KNHC 292042
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
400 PM CDT Sat Sep 29 2018

Recent scatterometer data confirms that Sergio is at tropical storm
strength, but with a slightly unexpected twist - the maximum winds
are in a band about 110 n mi east of the center and there is no
inner wind core at this time. The initial intensity remains 35 kt
based on the scatterometer data. Sergio currently has good cirrus
outflow in all directions, but there is some evidence that northerly
upper-level winds below the level of the outflow are causing some
light shear.

Sergio is expected to be in an environment of light vertical shear
and high humidity, and over warm sea surface temperatures for the
next 3 days or so, which should result in steady strengthening.
The environment is favorable enough for rapid intensification,
although the current storm structure does not appear favorable for
quick strengthening. The intensity forecast calls for gradual
intensification during the first 24-36 h, with a faster rate from
36-72 h as the cyclone becomes better organized. Near the end of
the forecast period, the storm may encounter increasing
northeasterly shear which could limit intensification, and this is
reflected in the forecast. The intensity forecast is in the middle
of the guidance envelope and just above the intensity consensus,
and the forecast may need to be adjusted upward in subsequent
advisories. The wind radii forecast have been adjusted based on
the current structure and the latest radii guidance.

The initial motion is now 275/10. Sergio should be steered
generally westward for the next three days or so by the subtropical
ridge over Mexico. After that time, the cyclone should approach a
weakness in the ridge caused by a large mid- to upper-level trough
over California, and this should lead to a turn toward the
northwest. The track guidance remains in good agreement with this
scenario, and the new forecast track is similar to, but a little
south of, the previous track.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 12.1N 102.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 12.3N 104.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 12.3N 106.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 12.2N 108.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 12.1N 110.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 13.0N 114.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 15.0N 117.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 16.5N 119.5W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-09-29 21:34

WTPZ31 KNHC 292041
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
400 PM CDT SAT SEP 29 2018

...SERGIO MOVING WESTWARD WELL SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.1N 102.8W
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 102.8 WEST. SERGIO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND SERGIO
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES (205 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 PM CDT.

....
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-09-29 21:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 292041 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
2100 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 102.8W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 102.8W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 102.3W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 12.3N 104.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 12.3N 106.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 12.2N 108.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 12.1N 110.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.0N 114.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 15.0N 117.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

2018-09-29 21:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 292041
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
2100 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 102.8W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 102.8W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 102.3W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 12.3N 104.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 12.3N 106.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 12.2N 108.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 12.1N 110.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.0N 114.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 15.0N 117.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 16.5N 119.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 102.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-09-29 16:34

WTPZ41 KNHC 291535 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
1030 AM CDT SAT SEP 29 2018

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED, WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER EMBEDDED UNDER THE
CONVECTIVE OVERCAST AND NEAR A DEVELOPING COMPLEX OF BANDS IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. BASED ON THIS AND CONTINUITY FROM EARLIER
SCATTEROMETER DATA, ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL
STORM SERGIO WITH 35 KT WINDS.

SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR
AND HIGH HUMIDITY, AND OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE
NEXT 3 DAYS OR SO, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY STRENGTHENING. NEAR
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE STORM MAY ENCOUNTER INCREASING
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WHICH COULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST, WHICH IS NEAR THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS, CALLS FOR STEADY
STRENGTHENING THROUGH 96 H, WITH SERGIO BECOMING A HURRICANE BY 48
H.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/11. SERGIO SHOULD
BE STEERED GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS OR SO BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER MEXICO. AFTER THAT TIME, THE CYCLONE SHOULD
APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CAUSED BY A LARGE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA, AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO, AND THE FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE HCCA
CORRECTED CONSENSUS MODEL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1530Z 12.4N 102.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 12.7N 103.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

2018-09-29 16:34

WTPZ41 KNHC 291535
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Sergio Special Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
1030 AM CDT Sat Sep 29 2018

Satellite imagery indicates that convection associated with the low
pressure area south-southwest of Acapulco has continued to become
better organized, with the low-level center embedded under the
convective overcast and near a developing complex of bands in the
southeastern semicircle. Based on this and continuity from earlier
scatterometer data, advisories are being initiated on Tropical
Storm Sergio with 35 kt winds.

Sergio is expected to be in an environment of light vertical shear
and high humidity, and over warm sea surface temperatures for the
next 3 days or so, which should result in steady strengthening. Near
the end of the forecast period, the storm may encounter increasing
northeasterly shear which could limit intensification. The intensity
forecast, which is near the intensity consensus, calls for steady
strengthening through 96 h, with Sergio becoming a hurricane by 48
h.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 285/11. Sergio should
be steered generally westward for the next three days or so by the
subtropical ridge over Mexico. After that time, the cyclone should
approach a weakness in the ridge caused by a large mid- to
upper-level trough over California, and this should lead to a turn
toward the northwest. The track guidance is in good agreement
with this scenario, and the forecast track lies near the HCCA
corrected consensus model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1530Z 12.4N 102.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 12.7N 103.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 12.9N 105.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 12.9N 107.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 12.8N 109.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 13.0N 113.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 15.0N 117.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 16.5N 119.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-09-29 16:34

WTPZ31 KNHC 291528
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
1030 AM CDT SAT SEP 29 2018

...TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORMS WELL SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1030 AM CDT...1530 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 102.1W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1030 AM CDT (1530 UTC), THE CENTER OF NEWLY-FORMED TROPICAL STORM
SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 102.1 WEST.
SERGIO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H). A
GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND
SERGIO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES (165 KM)
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 PM CDT.

....
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-09-29 16:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 291527 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
1530 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 102.1W AT 29/1530Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 102.1W AT 29/1530Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 101.5W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 12.7N 103.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 12.9N 105.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 12.9N 107.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 12.8N 109.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.0N 113.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 15.0N 117.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

2018-09-29 16:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 291527
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM SERGIO SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018
1530 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 102.1W AT 29/1530Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 102.1W AT 29/1530Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 101.5W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 12.7N 103.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 12.9N 105.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 12.9N 107.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 12.8N 109.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.0N 113.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 15.0N 117.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 16.5N 119.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 102.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN