Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for MICHAEL-18
in United States, Cuba

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2018-10-12 09:33

WTNT44 KNHC 120848
TCDAT4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Michael Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
500 AM EDT Fri Oct 12 2018

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that Michael has
become a storm-force extratropical low as it moves off of the coast
of the United States. The initial intensity has been increased to
55 kt based on the surface observations, and some additional
increase in strength is expected during the next 12-24 h. After
that time, the cyclone should gradually weaken, and it is forecast
to dissipate over the eastern Atlantic by 96 h. The revised
intensity and size forecast are based mainly on the guidance from
the Ocean Prediction Center.

The initial motion is 065/25. The cyclone should move very rapidly
toward the east-northeast, followed by a more eastward motion near
the end of the cyclone's life.

This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.
Additional information on the remaining impacts over the United
States can be found in products issued by local National Weather
Service forecast offices.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding this morning from
eastern New Jersey to southern New England. Elsewhere high water,
flooding, and flash flooding may persist today where heavy rain fell
very recently in the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic states.

2. Gale-force winds will continue for a few more hours over
portions of southeastern Virginia, the southern Chesapeake Bay, and
the Delmarva Peninsula.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 38.0N 73.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 12/1800Z 40.4N 66.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 13/0600Z 43.8N 55.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 13/1800Z 46.2N 42.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 14/0600Z 47.0N 28.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 15/0600Z 46.0N 11.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-10-12 09:33

WTNT34 KNHC 120847
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Michael Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
500 AM EDT Fri Oct 12 2018

...MICHAEL BECOMES A STORM-FORCE POST-TROPICAL LOW AS IT MOVES
AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES...
...ALL TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AND WATCHES DISCONTINUED...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.0N 73.1W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ENE OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All coastal tropical cyclone warnings and watches are discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Michael was located near latitude 38.0 North, longitude 73.1 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near
29 mph (46 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with an
increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, the center of Michael will move away from the
United States today and move rapidly across the open Atlantic Ocean
tonight through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased near 65 mph (100 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected today and
tonight as the post-tropical cyclone moves across the Atlantic.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km)
from the center. NOAA buoy 44014 recently reported sustained winds
of 58 mph (94 km/h) and a wind gust of 72 mph (115 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: Storm surge flooding along the North Carolina coast,
including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, should diminish today.

WIND: Gale winds may continue for a few more hours over portions of
southeastern Virginia, the southern Chesapeake Bay, and the Delmarva
Peninsula.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain from
New Jersey to Long Island to Cape Cod, and 3 to 5 inches over
Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard through this afternoon. This
rainfall could lead to flash flooding. Elsewhere, flooding and
flash flooding may continue where Michael produced heavy rain very
recently in the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic states.

Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected across the coastal
northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.
Additional information on the remaining impacts over the United
States can be found in products issued by local National Weather
Service forecast offices.

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-10-12 09:33

WTNT24 KNHC 120847
TCMAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018
0900 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ALL COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 73.1W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 25 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 240SE 80SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 270SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 73.1W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 75.0W

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 40.4N 66.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 180SE 120SW 90NW.
34 KT... 90NE 360SE 240SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 43.8N 55.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 180SE 150SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 420SE 300SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 46.2N 42.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 180SE 240SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 420SE 360SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 47.0N 28.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 180SE 120SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 360SE 360SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 46.0N 11.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 180SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.0N 73.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-10-12 06:33

WTNT34 KNHC 120548
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
200 AM EDT Fri Oct 12 2018

...MICHAEL STRENGTHENING WHILE TRANSITIONING TO A POST-TROPICAL
STORM...
...DAMAGING WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING STILL
OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.3N 75.1W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ENE OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout North Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was
located near latitude 37.3 North, longitude 75.1 West. Michael is
moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h). An east-
northeastward motion with a significant increase in forward speed is
expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the
center of Michael will move away from the coast of the United
States during the next few hours and then begin to race
east-northeastward across the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.

Surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds have
increased near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Michael is
expected to continue to strengthen while becoming a post-tropical
low during the next few hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km),
primarily over water to the southeast of the center. The National
Ocean Service station on the York River recently reported sustained
winds of 62 mph (99 km/h) and a wind gust of 83 mph (133 km/h) at an
elevation of 48 ft (15 m), while the Norfolk Naval Air Station
reported sustained winds of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a wind gust of
75 mph (120 km/h). Also, a Weatherflow station on the Chesapeake
Light Tower recently reported sustained winds of 81 mph (130 km/h)
and a wind gust of 96 mph (154 km/h) at an elevation of 135 ft
(41 m).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet
to Duck...2-4 ft

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of
extreme eastern North Carolina, including the Outer Banks.

Gale- to storm-force winds are occurring over portions of
southeastern Virginia, extreme northeastern North Carolina, and the
Delmarva Peninsula, and these conditions will continue for the next
several hours.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 5 inches across southeast Virginia, southeast Maryland,
Delaware, and southern New Jersey. Isolated maximum totals of 7
inches are possible. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening
flash floods.

Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected across the coastal
northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-10-12 03:32

WTNT44 KNHC 120253
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Michael Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1100 PM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

Michael has just about lost its tropical characteristics. The
low-level circulation is becoming increasingly elongated as it
becomes embedded within a frontal zone, and the center is becoming
ill defined. The center we have been tracking across North
Carolina appears to have moved into extreme southeastern Virginia,
although it should be noted that a second low center, one with even
lower pressure, has formed farther north along the western shore of
Chesapeake Bay, closer to the deepest convection. Needless to say,
Michael has just about become post-tropical, and that
transformation should be complete overnight. The estimated maximum
winds remain 45 kt based on recent observations from coastal North
Carolina. Due to baroclinic forcing, some re-intensification of
the post-tropical low is expected during the next 24-36 hours,
following guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center. The
post-tropical low should then begin to weaken again in 2-3 days and
will likely be absorbed by another weather system to the west of
Europe by day 4.

The initial motion based on the continuity-following low center is
northeastward, or 055/22 kt. Michael is embedded within the
mid-latitude flow and is therefore expected to accelerate toward
the east-northeast over the western and northern Atlantic during the
next couple of days, even approaching speeds of about 50 kt in 48
hours. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and no
significant changes to the official track forecast were required.
Michael's center is expected to move off the coast of Virginia
within the next couple of hours, with tropical-storm- and
gale-force winds moving away from the coast during the day on
Friday.

Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of the
Mid-Atlantic coast as Michael exits the U.S. east coast and becomes
post-tropical. Non-tropical high wind watches, warnings, and
advisories have been issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards in
these areas north of Duck, North Carolina.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening flash flooding is occurring over portions of
the southern Mid-Atlantic states and will continue overnight.

2. Strong, possibly damaging winds are expected over portions of
extreme eastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia, and the
southern Delmarva peninsula overnight. These winds have the
potential to cause tree and structural damage, plus power outages.

3. Dangerous storm surge is possible overnight along the sound side
of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to Duck, where
a Storm Surge Watch is in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 37.1N 76.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 39.2N 71.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 13/0000Z 42.5N 61.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 13/1200Z 45.4N 49.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 14/0000Z 47.1N 34.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 15/0000Z 47.6N 14.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-10-12 03:32

WTNT34 KNHC 120252
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Michael Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1100 PM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

...MICHAEL ABOUT TO MOVE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST AND BECOME POST
TROPICAL...
...DAMAGING WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING STILL
OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.1N 76.1W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNE OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of Cape
Lookout North Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout North Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was
located near latitude 37.1 North, longitude 76.1 West. Michael is
moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h). An east-
northeastward motion with a significant increase in forward
speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, the center of Michael will move off the coast of Virginia
within the next hour or two and then begin to race
east-northeastward across the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Michael is expected to become a post-tropical low overnight and
then intensity over the western Atlantic on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445
km), primarily over water to the southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet
to Duck...2-4 ft

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of
extreme eastern North Carolina, including the Outer Banks.

Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of
southeastern Virginia, extreme northeastern North Carolina, and the
Delmarva Peninsula overnight and Friday morning when Michael
becomes post-tropical off the Mid-Atlantic coast.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 5 inches across southeast Virginia, southeast Maryland,
Delaware, and southern New Jersey. Isolated maximum totals of 7
inches are possible. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening
flash floods.

Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected across the coastal
northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-10-12 03:32

WTNT24 KNHC 120252
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018
0300 UTC FRI OCT 12 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF CAPE
LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 76.1W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 240SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 270SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 76.1W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 77.7W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 39.2N 71.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 330SE 120SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 42.5N 61.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 120SE 120SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 360SE 240SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 45.4N 49.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 180SE 150SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 360SE 300SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 47.1N 34.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 120SE 120SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 300SE 270SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 47.6N 14.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 210SE 150SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.1N 76.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

2018-10-12 00:32

WTNT34 KNHC 112349
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 21A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
800 PM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

...MICHAEL LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...
...DAMAGING WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING STILL
OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.5N 77.8W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM NW OF ROANOKE RAPIDS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Murrells Inlet South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was
located near latitude 36.5 North, longitude 77.8 West. Michael is
moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed through
tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast at an even faster forward
speed is expected on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the
center of Michael will cross into southeastern Virginia during the
next couple of hours and then move into the western Atlantic Ocean
overnight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Michael is forecast to intensify as it becomes a
post-tropical low over the Atlantic late tonight and Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km),
primarily over water to the southeast of the center. A sustained
wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 67 mph (108 km/h) was
recently reported at Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station in North
Carolina.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on recent surface
observations is 989 mb (29.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet
to Duck...2-4 ft

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of
northeastern South Carolina and central and eastern North Carolina.
Damaging tropical-storm-force wind gusts will spread from central
North Carolina and southern Virginia across northeastern North
Carolina and eastern Virginia during the next several hours.

Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of
southeastern Virginia, extreme northeastern North Carolina, and the
Delmarva Peninsula late tonight and Friday morning when Michael
becomes post-tropical off the Mid-Atlantic coast.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 4 to 7 inches from north-central North Carolina, into south-
central to southeast Virginia, including the southern Delmarva
Peninsula. Isolated maximum totals of 9 inches are possible in North
Carolina and Virginia. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening
flash floods.

Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches expected across the coastal
northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through this evening from
northeastern North Carolina across southeast Virginia into the
Delmarva Peninsula.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-10-11 21:34

WTNT44 KNHC 112053
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Michael Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
500 PM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

Satellite and radar data show that Michael's rain shield is
beginning to expand northward and northwestward, and that cooler and
drier air is starting to wrap around the western portion of the
circulation. These trends indicate that Michael's transition to an
extratropical low has started. There have been recent observations
of 40 to nearly 45 kt sustained winds along the southeastern coast
of North Carolina, so the initial intensity remains 45 kt. Little
change in strength is expected through this evening, but Michael is
forecast to quickly intensify after it completes extratropical
transition and exits the east coast of the United States tonight.
The official intensity forecast is based on guidance from the NOAA
Ocean Prediction Center.

It should also be noted that an area of damaging wind gusts of up to
50 kt has developed around the northwest side of the circulation
over central North Carolina and Virginia this afternoon. As a
result, the gust factor has been increased in this advisory, as this
area of strong winds will spread northward and eastward across
portions of eastern Virginia and northeastern North Carolina this
evening and tonight.

Michael is moving northeastward or 050/21 kt. The storm will
continue to accelerate as it become further embedded within the
mid-latitude westerlies. The post-tropical cyclone will race
across the north Atlantic during the next few days, before slowing
down late in the period before it weakens and dissipates. The
track guidance continues to be in good agreement and little change
was required from the previous NHC track forecast.

Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of the
Mid-Atlantic coast as Michael exits the U.S. east coast and becomes
post-tropical. Non-tropical high wind watches, warnings, and
advisories have been issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards in
these areas north of Duck, North Carolina.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening flash flooding is occurring over portions of
North Carolina and southern Virginia and will continue through the
evening.

2. Damaging winds are spreading eastward across portions of central
and eastern North Carolina, and will continue through this evening.
These winds have the potential to cause tree and structural damage.
Strong winds are also expected over portions of southeastern
Virginia and the Virginia Eastern Shore tonight as Michael becomes
post-tropical.

3. Dangerous storm surge is possible tonight along the sound side of
the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to Duck, where a
Storm Surge Watch is in effect.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 36.1N 78.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
12H 12/0600Z 38.1N 74.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 12/1800Z 41.2N 66.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 13/0600Z 44.5N 55.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 13/1800Z 47.0N 42.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 14/1800Z 48.5N 17.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 15/1800Z 46.5N 7.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-11 21:34

WTNT34 KNHC 112051
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Michael Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
500 PM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

...MICHAEL PRODUCING LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA...
...DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS
OF VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.1N 78.8W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NNW OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning south of South Santee River South
Carolina has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was
located near latitude 36.1 North, longitude 78.8 West. Michael is
moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed through
tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast at an even faster forward
speed is expected on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track,
the center of Michael will move across eastern North Carolina and
southeastern Virginia this evening, and move into the western
Atlantic Ocean tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Michael is forecast to intensify as it becomes a post-tropical low
over the Atlantic late tonight and Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km),
primarily over water to the southeast of the center. A wind gust of
53 mph (85 km/h) was recently reported at Danville, Virginia, and a
gust of 56 mph (91 km/h) was reported at Burlington, North Carolina.
A sustained wind of 51 mph (81 km/h) and a gust of 59 mph (94 km/h)
at the Johnny Mercer Pier in Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on recent surface
observations is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet
to Duck...2-4 ft

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of
northeastern South Carolina and central and eastern North Carolina.
Damaging tropical-storm-force wind gusts are occuring across
portions of central North Carolina and southern Virginia and will
spread across northeastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia
this evening and tonight.

Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of
southeastern Virginia, extreme northeastern North Carolina, and the
Delmarva Peninsula late tonight and Friday morning when Michael
becomes post-tropical off the Mid-Atlantic coast.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 4 to 7 inches from north-central North Carolina, into south-
central to southeast Virginia, including the southern Delmarva
Peninsula. Isolated maximum totals of 9 inches are possible in North
Carolina and Virginia. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening
flash floods.

Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches expected across the coastal
northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through this evening from
northeastern North Carolina across southeast Virginia into the
Delmarva Peninsula.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-11 21:34

WTNT24 KNHC 112050
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018
2100 UTC THU OCT 11 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH
CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 78.8W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 200SE 60SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 270SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 78.8W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 80.0W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 38.1N 74.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 240SE 120SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 41.2N 66.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 120SE 120SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 270SE 180SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 44.5N 55.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 180SE 150SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 360SE 270SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 47.0N 42.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 210SE 210SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 360SE 360SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 48.5N 17.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 210SE 150SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 360SE 360SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 46.5N 7.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.1N 78.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

2018-10-11 18:34

WTNT34 KNHC 111739
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
200 PM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

...MICHAEL PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.7N 80.0W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM S OF GREENSBORO NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning south of Edisto Beach South Carolina has
been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was
located near latitude 35.7 North, longitude 80.0 West. Michael is
moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue with an increase in forward speed through
tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast at an even faster forward
speed is expected on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track,
the center of Michael will continue to move across central and
eastern North Carolina today, move across southeastern Virginia this
evening, and move into the western Atlantic Ocean tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts, primarily over water south and east of the center. Little
change in strength is expected today, with the strongest winds
primarily spreading northward along the coast of the Carolinas.
Michael is forecast to intensify as it becomes a post-tropical low
over the Atlantic late tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km),
mainly to the south and east of the center. A wind gust of 55 mph
(89 km/h) was recently reported at North Myrtle Beach, South
Carolina. A wind gust to 49 mph (80 km/h) has been reported at
Wilmington, North Carolina.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations
is 991 mb (29.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet
to Duck...2-4 ft

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of
northeastern South Carolina and will spread northward over central
and eastern North Carolina through this evening. Tropical storm
force wind gusts are expected across portions of North Carolina and
Virginia this afternoon and tonight.

Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of
southeastern Virginia, extreme northeastern North Carolina, and the
Delmarva Peninsula late tonight and Friday morning when Michael
becomes post-tropical off the Mid-Atlantic coast.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 4 to 7 inches from northern South Carolina, west-central to
northwestern North Carolina, and into south-central to southeast
Virginia, including the southern Delmarva Peninsula. Isolated
maximum totals of 9 inches are possible in North Carolina and
Virginia. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash
floods.

Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches expected across the Central
Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible through this evening across
central and eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-11 15:36

WTNT44 KNHC 111449
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Michael Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

Surface, radar, and satellite data indicate that the center of
Michael has moved over central South Carolina this morning, and will
be moving into central North Carolina shortly. Sustained winds near
the center have decreased, but there have been a couple of reports
of sustained 37 to 40 kt winds along and just off the coast of South
Carolina within the outer circulation of the storm. It is assumed
that these coastal observing sites have not sampled the strongest
winds, so the initial intensity remains 45 kt for this advisory.
Wind gusts of 40 to 50 kt have been common over central and eastern
portions of South Carolina this morning. As Michael's circulation
emerges over the western Atlantic, little change in strength is
expected today, with the highest sustained winds spreading northward
along the coasts of South and North Carolina. Late tonight, Michael
will quickly transform into an extratropical cyclone, and the global
models indicate that the post-tropical low will quickly strengthen
after moving offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast. The post-tropical
portion of Michael's intensity forecast is based on guidance from
the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

The storm is moving quickly northeastward or 050 degrees at 20 kt.
Michael will continue to accelerate northeastward to east-
northeastward as it moves over the western and north Atlantic
during the next couple of days. There has been little change to
the guidance envelope, and the new NHC track is an update of the
previous advisory.

Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of the
Mid-Atlantic coast as Michael exits the U.S. east coast and becomes
post-tropical. Non-tropical high wind watches, warnings, and
advisories have been issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards in
these areas north of Duck, North Carolina.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash
flooding today over portions of the Carolinas and southeastern
Virginia.

2. Tropical storm force wind gusts will continue across much of
South Carolina and central and eastern North Carolina, with
sustained tropical storm force winds expected along the coast of the
Carolinas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 34.7N 80.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
12H 12/0000Z 36.6N 77.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 12/1200Z 39.3N 71.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 13/0000Z 42.8N 61.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 13/1200Z 45.5N 49.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 14/1200Z 48.2N 23.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 15/1200Z 49.0N 9.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-11 15:36

WTNT34 KNHC 111448
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Michael Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

...MICHAEL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND
GUSTS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.7N 80.8W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SSE OF CHARLOTTE NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning south of the Savannah River has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Savannah River to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was
located near latitude 34.7 North, longitude 80.8 West. Michael is
moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue with an increase in forward speed through
tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast at an even faster forward
speed are expected on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track,
the center of Michael will continue to move across central and
eastern North Carolina today, move across southeastern Virginia
this evening, and move into the western Atlantic Ocean tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected today, with the strongest
winds primarily spreading northward along the coast of the
Carolinas. Michael is forecast to intensify as it becomes a post-
tropical low over the Atlantic late tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km),
mainly to the south and east of the center. A wind gust of 54 mph
(87 km/h) was recently reported at Folly Island, South Carolina.
Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, recently reported a wind gust of 47
mph (76 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations
is 990 mb (29.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet
to Duck...2-4 ft

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of
central and eastern South Carolina and will spread northward over
central and eastern North Carolina this afternoon and evening.

Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of
southeastern Virginia, extreme northeastern North Carolina, and the
Delmarva Peninsula late tonight and Friday morning when Michael
becomes post-tropical off the Mid-Atlantic coast.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 4 to 7 inches from northern South Carolina, west-central to
northwestern North Carolina, and into south-central to southeast
Virginia, including the southern Delmarva Peninsula. Isolated
maximum ttals of 9 inches are possible in North Carolina and
Virginia. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash
floods.

Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches expected across the Central
Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible through this evening across
central and eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-11 15:36

WTNT24 KNHC 111448
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018
1500 UTC THU OCT 11 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 80.8W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 160SE 40SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 270SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 80.8W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 81.7W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 36.6N 77.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 39.3N 71.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 90SE 120SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 270SE 180SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 42.8N 61.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 180SE 150SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 320SE 240SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 45.5N 49.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 200SE 180SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 360SE 300SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 48.2N 23.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 240SE 210SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 480SE 480SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 49.0N 9.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.7N 80.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

2018-10-11 12:35

WTNT34 KNHC 111154
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

...CENTER OF MICHAEL MOVING OVER SOUTH CAROLINA...
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.1N 81.8W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM WNW OF COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was
located near latitude 34.1 North, longitude 81.8 West. Michael is
moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue with an increase in forward speed through
tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast and an even faster
forward speed are expected on Friday. On the forecast track, the
center of Michael will continue to move across central South
Carolina this morning, then move across portions of central and
eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia this afternoon and
this evening, and move into the Atlantic Ocean by late tonight or
early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected today, with the strongest
winds primarily spreading northward along the coast of the
Carolinas. Michael is forecast to intensify as it becomes a post-
tropical low over the Atlantic late tonight or early Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
mainly over water to the southeast of the center. A coastal marine
observing site at Folly Island, South Carolina recently reported a
sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) with a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h).
A wind gust to 49 mph (80 km/h) was recently observed in Charleston,
South Carolina.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations
is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet
to Duck...2-4 ft

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of
eastern and southeastern Georgia and South Carolina. These
conditions will spread northward across central and eastern portions
of North Carolina today.

Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of
southeastern Virginia, extreme northeastern North Carolina, and the
Delmarva Peninsula as Michael becomes post-tropical off the
Mid-Atlantic coast late tonight or early Friday.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 7 inches from eastern Georgia to the southern Mid-Atlantic
states and 1 to 3 inches over the northern Mid-Atlantic states and
coastal southern New England. Isolated maximum amounts of 9 inches
are possible in North Carolina and Virginia. This rainfall could
lead to life-threatening flash floods.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible today over portions of
eastern South Carolina, eastern and central North Carolina, and
southeast Virginia.

SURF: Swells generated by Michael will affect the coasts of the
eastern, northern, and western Gulf of Mexico through this morning.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-11 09:34

WTNT44 KNHC 110849
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Michael Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
500 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

Surface observations and WSR-88D Doppler radar data indicate that
Michael continues to weaken as the center moves through eastern
Georgia, and based on these data the initial intensity is decreased
to 45 kt. There is currently a small area of tropical-storm-force
winds near the center, with a second area over the Atlantic well to
the southeast of the center. Michael should continue to weaken for
the next 12 h or so as the center moves through South Carolina
and into North Carolina. After that time, the cyclone should start
to intensify due to baroclinic forcing, and it is expected to become
a gale- or storm-force extratropical low around the 24-h point. The
new intensity forecast is an update of the previous forecast, and
it leans heavily on global model guidance during the extratropical
phase.

The initial motion is now 045/18. Michael will accelerate toward
the northeast and east-northeast as it becomes further embedded in
the mid-latitude westerlies. The new track forecast track is near
the various consensus models and has no significant changes from the
previous forecast.

Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of the
Mid-Atlantic coast as Michael exits the U.S. east coast and becomes
post-tropical. Non-tropical high wind watches, warnings, and
advisories have been issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards in
these areas north of Duck, North Carolina.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash
flooding over portions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeastern
Virginia.

2. Tropical storm conditions will continue to affect portions of the
southeast U.S. coast from Georgia through North Carolina, and
tropical storm warnings remain in effect for these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 33.5N 82.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
12H 11/1800Z 35.4N 79.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 12/0600Z 37.9N 74.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 12/1800Z 40.9N 65.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 13/0600Z 44.1N 55.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 14/0600Z 48.0N 29.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 15/0600Z 49.0N 9.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-10-11 09:34

WTNT34 KNHC 110848
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Michael Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
500 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

...MICHAEL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER EASTERN GEORGIA...
...WINDS INCREASING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA COASTS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.5N 82.5W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM W OF AUGUSTA GEORGIA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM NE OF MACON GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning is discontinued for the Gulf coast of
Florida.

The Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued along the Georgia and
Florida coast south of Altamaha Sound.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was
located near latitude 33.5 North, longitude 82.5 West. Michael is
moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue with an increase in forward speed through
tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast and an even faster
forward speed are expected on Friday. On the forecast track, the
center of Michael will move through eastern Georgia into central
South Carolina this morning, then moves across portions of central
and eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia into the
Atlantic Ocean by late tonight or early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some additional weakening is expected today while
the center remains over land. However, Michael is forecast to
intensify as it becomes a post-tropical low over the Atlantic late
tonight or early Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center. Louisville, Georgia recently
reported a wind gust of 60 mph (97 km/h), and there are several
reports of wind gusts of 40-50 mph (65-80 km/h) in the Augusta area.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations
is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: Water levels are receding along the Gulf Coast of
Florida. Along the southeast coast of the United States, the
combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will continue to
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential
to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at
the time of high tide...

Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to
Duck...2-4 ft

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of
eastern and southeastern Georgia, and will spread across portions
of central and southern South Carolina this morning.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within
the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning this
morning through Friday.

Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of
southeastern Virginia, extreme northeastern North Carolina, and the
Delmarva Peninsula as Michael becomes post-tropical off the
Mid-Atlantic coast late tonight or early Friday.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 7 inches from eastern Georgia to the southern Mid-Atlantic
states and 1 to 3 inches over the northern Mid-Atlantic states and
coastal southern New England. Isolated maximum amounts of 9 inches
are possible in North Carolina and Virginia. This rainfall could
lead to life-threatening flash floods.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible today over portions of
eastern South Carolina, eastern and central North Carolina, and
southeast Virginia.

SURF: Swells generated by Michael will affect the coasts of the
eastern, northern, and western Gulf of Mexico through this morning.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-10-11 09:34

WTNT24 KNHC 110848
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018
0900 UTC THU OCT 11 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FOR THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED ALONG THE GEORGIA AND
FLORIDA COAST SOUTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHAEL.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 82.5W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 140SE 50SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 82.5W AT 11/0900Z...INLAND
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 83.2W...INLAND

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 35.4N 79.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 140SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 37.9N 74.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 160SE 130SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 40.9N 65.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 240SE 200SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 44.1N 55.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 120SE 120SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 300SE 210SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 48.0N 29.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 150SE 150SW 0NW.
34 KT...160NE 420SE 360SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 49.0N 9.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.5N 82.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-10-11 06:36

WTNT34 KNHC 110546
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
200 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

...MICHAEL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA...
...WINDS INCREASING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA COASTS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.7N 83.2W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM E OF MACON GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Panama City Florida to Keaton Beach Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Fernandina Beach Florida to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was
located by NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 32.7 North,
longitude 83.2 West. Michael is moving toward the northeast near 20
mph (31 km/h) and this general motion should continue this morning.
A motion toward the northeast at a faster forward speed is expected
later today through Friday night. On the forecast track, the core
of Michael will move across central and eastern Georgia this
morning, and then over southern and central South Carolina later
today. Michael will then move northeastward across the southeastern
United States and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (90 km/h)
with higher gusts. Michael will steadily weaken as it crosses the
southeastern United States, but it is forecast to re-strengthen some
when it moves off the east coast of the United States and becomes a
post-tropical cyclone on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km).
During the last few hours, Eastman, Georgia reported a wind gust of
63 mph (102 km/h), McRae, Georgia reported a wind gust of 59 mph
(95 km/h), and Sapelo Island, Georgia reported a wind gust of 45
mph (72 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).
Warner-Robins Air Force Base near Macon recently reported a
pressure of 980.9 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: Water levels are beginning to recede in some
locations, however, the combination of a dangerous storm surge
and the tide will continue to cause normally dry areas near the
coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following
heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high
tide...

Panama City FL to Keaton Beach FL...3-5 ft
Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to
Duck...2-4 ft

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of
central and southeastern Georgia, and will spread across portions
of eastern Georgia and southern South Carolina this morning.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within
the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning this
morning through Friday.

Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of
southeastern Virginia, extreme northeastern North Carolina, and the
Delmarva Peninsula as Michael becomes post-tropical off the
Mid-Atlantic coast late tonight or Friday.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts into Friday...

Georgia, the Carolinas, and into Virginia...3 to 6 inches, with
isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall could lead to
life-threatening flash floods.

Florida...an additional inch of rain is possible as the tropical
storm moves away from the state eastern Mid-Atlantic, southern New
England coast...1 to 3 inches.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes remain possible today from Georgia
into the Carolinas.

SURF: Swells generated by Michael will affect the coasts of the
eastern, northern, and western Gulf of Mexico through this morning.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-10-11 04:35

WTNT64 KNHC 110400
TCUAT4

Tropical Storm Michael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1200 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

...12 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...MICHAEL WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA...
...DAMAGING WINDS STILL OCCURRING INLAND...

NOAA Doppler weather radar data indicate that the center of Michael
is now moving into south-central Georgia. Tropical storm-force
winds continue over central and southern Georgia, and are spreading
across the coast of southeastern Georgia.

This will be the last hourly position update issued by the National
Hurricane Center on Michael. The next intermediate advisory will be
issued at 2 AM EDT...0600 UTC.


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM EDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.3N 83.6W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSW OF MACON GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...115 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-10-11 03:38

WTNT44 KNHC 110300
TCDAT4

Hurricane Michael Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Data from NOAA WSR-88D Doppler weather radars indicate that Michael
has been steadily weakening a a typical rate of decay since it
moved inland. However, peak Doppler velocity values are still 80-85
kt between 5000-7000 ft above ground level in large areas in the
eastern semicircle. With a recent burst of convection near the
low-level center, some of those hurricane-force winds are likely
making it down to the surface. Additional weakening is expected due
to frictional effects, and the official intensity follows the
trend of the Decay-SHIPS model for the next 24 hours while the
cyclone remains over land. Sustained winds have dropped below
tropical-storm-force across the northern Gulf coast, so the
Hurricane Warning has been discontinued for that area. Michael is
forecast to emerge over the western Atlantic Thursday night and
Friday, where intensification as a robust extratropical cyclone is
expected. The low is forecast to be absorbed by another low
pressure area over the eastern Atlantic by day 5.

The initial motion is now 045/17 kt. Michael will continue to
accelerate northeastward as it becomes embedded within deeper
mid-latitude southwesterly flow ahead of an eastward moving frontal
system. By 36 hours, the expected post-tropical cyclone should turn
east-northeastward and accelerate further while it moves over the
north Atlantic. The latest track guidance is tightly clustered
about the previous forecast track, so no significant changes were
made.

Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of the
Mid-Atlantic coast as Michael exits the U.S. east coast and becomes
post-tropical. Non-tropical high wind watches, warnings, and
advisories have been issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards in
these areas north of Duck, North Carolina.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge continues along portions of the
Florida Panhandle and the Florida Big Bend. The worst storm surge
is expected to continue between Panama City and Keaton Beach,
where 3 to 5 feet of inundation is still ongoing.

2. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash
flooding over portions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeastern
Virginia.

3. Tropical storm conditions will affect portions of the southeast
U.S. coast from northeast Florida through North Carolina, and
tropical storm warnings are in effect for these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 32.1N 83.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 34.0N 81.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 12/0000Z 36.4N 77.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 12/1200Z 39.3N 70.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 13/0000Z 42.4N 60.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 14/0000Z 47.9N 35.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 15/0000Z 49.7N 13.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 16/0000Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-11 03:38

WTNT34 KNHC 110256
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...MICHAEL WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA...
...STORM FLOODING GRADUALLY DECREASING ALONG THE GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.1N 83.8W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSW OF MACON GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning for the Gulf coast of Florida has been
discontinued. The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued west
of Panama City and southeast of Keaton Beach.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Panama City Florida to Keaton Beach Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Fernandina Beach Florida to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Michael was
located by NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 32.1 North,
longitude 83.8 West. Michael is moving toward the northeast near
20 mph (31 km/h) and this general motion should continue tonight. A
motion toward the northeast at a faster forward speed is expected on
Thursday through Friday night. On the forecast track, the core of
Michael will move across southwestern and central Georgia overnight,
and move through east-central Georgia Thursday morning. Michael will
then move northeastward across the southeastern United States
through late Thursday, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast by
early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Michael will steadily weaken as it crosses the
southeastern United States through Thursday night, becoming a
tropical storm by Thursday morning. Michael is forecast to
re-strengthen some Thursday night and Friday when it moves off the
east coast of the United States and becomes a post-tropical cyclone
on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: Water levels are beginning to recede in some
locations, however, the combination of a dangerous storm surge
and the tide will continue to cause normally dry areas near the
coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following
heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high
tide...

Panama City FL to Keaton Beach FL...3-5 ft
Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to
Duck...2-4 ft

WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are occurring over
portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama, and
southwestern Georgia and will continue to spread inland over
south-central Georgia tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within
the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning tonight
through Friday.

Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of
southeastern Virginia, extreme northeastern North Carolina, and the
Delmarva Peninsula as Michael becomes post-tropical off the
Mid-Atlantic coast late Thursday night or Friday.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts into Friday...

Georgia, the Carolinas, and into Virginia...3 to 6 inches, with
isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall could lead to
life-threatening flash floods.

Florida...an additional inch of rain is possible as the hurricane
moves away from the state eastern Mid-Atlantic, southern New England
coast...1 to 3 inches.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes remain possible tonight and Thursday
morning from Georgia into the Carolinas.

SURF: Swells generated by Michael will affect the coasts of the
eastern, northern, and western Gulf of Mexico through Thursday
morning. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-11 03:38

WTNT24 KNHC 110253
TCMAT4

HURRICANE MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018
0300 UTC THU OCT 11 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED. THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF
PANAMA CITY AND SOUTHEAST OF KEATON BEACH.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO KEATON BEACH FLORIDA

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHAEL.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 83.8W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 140SE 60SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 210SE 240SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 83.8W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 84.5W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 34.0N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 130SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 36.4N 77.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 160SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 39.3N 70.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP OVR WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 210SE 120SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 42.4N 60.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 120SE 120SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 300SE 210SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 47.9N 35.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 150SE 150SW 0NW.
34 KT...160NE 420SE 360SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 49.7N 13.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.1N 83.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

2018-10-11 03:05

WTNT64 KNHC 110200
TCUAT4

Hurricane Michael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1000 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...10 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...CENTER OF MICHAEL NOW MOVING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA...
...DAMAGING WINDS STILL OCCURRING INLAND...
...STORM SURGE LEVELS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING ON THE GULF COAST...

NOAA Doppler weather radar data indicate that the center of Michael
is now moving into south-central Georgia. Winds are continuing to
decease across the Florida panhandle.

Storm surge levels will continue to decrease along the coast of the
Florida Panhandle tonight. A National Ocean Service water level
station at Apalachicola is now indicating about 2 feet of inundation
above ground level.


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 84.1W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SSW OF MACON GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-11 03:05

WTNT64 KNHC 110100
TCUAT4

Hurricane Michael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
900 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...9 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...CENTER OF MICHAEL MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...
...DAMAGING WINDS STILL OCCURRING INLAND...
...STORM SURGE LEVELS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING ON THE GULF COAST...

NOAA Doppler radar data indicate that the center of Michael is
continuing to move over southwestern Georgia. Winds are gradually
deceasing over the Florida panhandle, but they are beginning to
increase along the Georgia coast.

Recent wind reports include:

Weatherflow site Jekyll Island Georgia: 61 mph (98 km/h)
Macon Georgia airport: wind gust to 47 mph (76 km/h)

Storm surge levels will continue to decrease along the coast of the
Florida Panhandle tonight. A National Ocean Service water level
station at Apalachicola is now reporting less than 3 feet of
inundation above ground level.


SUMMARY OF 900 PM EDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.7N 84.4W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSW OF MACON GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-11 00:37

WTNT34 KNHC 102357
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
800 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...EYE OF MICHAEL MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...
...DAMAGING WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA AND SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA...
...STORM FLOODING STILL OCCURRING ALONG THE GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.5N 84.5W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SW OF ALBANY GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Fernandina Beach Florida to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Michael
was located by NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 31.5 North,
longitude 84.5 West. Michael is moving toward the northeast near 17
mph (28 km/h), and this general motion should continue tonight. A
motion toward the northeast at a faster forward speed is expected on
Thursday through Friday night. On the forecast track, the core of
Michael will move across southwestern and central Georgia tonight,
and move through east-central Georgia Thursday morning. Michael will
then move northeastward across the southeastern United States
through late Thursday, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast by
early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Michael will steadily weaken as it crosses the
southeastern United States through Thursday night, becoming a
tropical storm by Thursday morning. Michael is forecast to
re-strengthen some Thursday night and Friday when it moves off the
east coast of the United States and becomes a post-tropical cyclone
on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (50 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km). A sustained wind of 52 mph (84 km/h) and a gust to
74 mph (119 km/h) were recently measured at the Albany Georgia
airport. A wind gust to 47 mph (76 km/h) was recently reported at
the airport in Tallahassee, Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: Water levels are beginning to recede in some
locations, however, the combination of a dangerous storm surge
and the tide will continue to cause normally dry areas near the
coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following
heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high
tide...

Tyndall Air Force Base FL to Aucilla River FL...4-8 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Tyndall Air Force Base...3-5 ft
Aucilla River FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3-5 ft
Chassahowitzka to Anclote River FL...2-4 ft
Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to
Duck...2-4 ft

Water levels remain high along the coast of the Florida Panhandle. A
National Ocean Service water level station at Apalachicola recently
reported over 3 feet of inundation above ground level.

WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are occurring over
portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama, and
southwestern Georgia and will continue to spread inland over
south-central Georgia tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within
the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning tonight
through Friday.

Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of
southeastern Virginia, extreme northeastern North Carolina, and the
Delmarva Peninsula as Michael becomes post-tropical off the
Mid-Atlantic coast late Thursday night or Friday.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday...

Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of
southwest and central Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening
flash floods.

The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and into Virginia...3 to
6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall
could lead to life-threatening flash floods.

Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England
coast...1 to 3 inches.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible through tonight from
northern Florida into much of Georgia and southern South Carolina.

SURF: Swells generated by Michael will affect the coasts of the
eastern, northern, and western Gulf of Mexico through Thursday
morning. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-10 23:41

WTNT64 KNHC 102301
TCUAT4

Hurricane Michael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
700 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...7 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...EYE OF MICHAEL MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...
...LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE ALONG THE COAST AND DAMAGING WINDS
INLAND CONTINUE...

NOAA Doppler radar data indicate that the eye of Michael is now
moving over southwestern Georgia.

Recently reported wind gusts include:

Albany Georgia airport: 67 mph (107 km/h)
Tallahassee International Airport: 61 mph (98 km/h)
Dothan Alabama airport: 60 mph (96 km/h)

Dangerous storm surge continues along the coast of the Florida
Panhandle. A National Ocean Service water level station at
Apalachicola is still reporting nearly 5 feet of inundation above
ground level.


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.1N 84.9W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM NNW OF BAINBRIDGE GEORGIA
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM WSW OF ALBANY GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-10 22:38

WTNT64 KNHC 102159
TCUAT4

Hurricane Michael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
600 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...6 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...EYE OF MICHAEL MOVING THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...
...LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUE...

NOAA Doppler radar data indicate that the eye of Michael is now
moving over Seminole County in extreme southwestern Georgia.
Everyone in this county should not venture out into the relative
calm of the eye, as hazardous winds will increase very quickly as
the eye passes!

Recently reported wind gusts include:

Tallahassee International Airport: 64 mph (104 km/h)
Dothan Alabama airport: 62 mph (100 km/h)
University of Florida/Weatherflow Mexico Beach: 58 mph (93 km/h)
Albany Georgia airport: 51 mph (81 km/h)

Dangerous storm surge continues along the coast of the Florida
Panhandle. A National Ocean Service water level station at
Apalachicola is still reporting nearly 5 feet of inundation above
ground level.


SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.1N 84.9W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WNW OF BAINBRIDGE GEORGIA
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SW OF ALBANY GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.56 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-10 21:38

WTNT44 KNHC 102054
TCDAT4

Hurricane Michael Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
400 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Data from an Air Force Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
NWS WSR-88D radar data showed that Michael continued to strengthen
until it made landfall around 1730 UTC (12:30 PM CDT) along the
coast of the Florida Panhandle between Mexico Beach and Tyndall Air
Force Base. The aircraft found peak 700-mb flight-level winds of
152 kt during its final pass through southeast eyewall just before
Michael made landfall. There were SFMR measurements of 132-138 kt,
but the validity of those observations are questionable since they
occurred in shallow water and were flagged. The landfall intensity
was estimated at 135 kt (155 mph), which makes Michael the strongest
hurricane to make landfall in the continental U.S. since Andrew
(1992). The minimum pressure at landfall was estimated at 919 mb,
which is the third lowest landfall pressure in the United States. A
University of Florida/Weatherflow observing site measured a minimum
pressure of 920.2 mb.

Now that the entire eyewall has moved over land, the Doppler radar
velocities have decreased and the initial intensity has been lowered
to 110 kt. Although steady weakening is expected as Michael moves
over the southeast U.S. through Thursday morning, hurricane-force
winds will continue to penetrate inland over the Florida Panhandle,
southeastern Alabama, and southwestern Georgia through this evening.
The circulation is forecast to emerge over the western Atlantic
Thursday night and Friday, where intensification as an extratropical
cyclone is expected. The extratropical low is expected to remain
quite strong while to moves over the north Atlantic through the
weekend. The low is expected to be absorbed by another low pressure
area over the eastern Atlantic by day 5.

Michael is moving northeastward of 030/14 kt, and the hurricane
should continue to accelerate northeastward as it becomes embedded
within the mid-latitude westerlies. The post-tropical cyclone should
turn east-northeastward and further accelerate as it moves over the
north Atlantic. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, but
has trended faster this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been
adjusted accordingly.

Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of the
Mid-Atlantic coast as Michael exits the U.S. east coast and becomes
post-tropical. Non-tropical high wind watches, warnings, and
advisories have been issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards in
these areas north of Duck, North Carolina.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge continues along portions of the
Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast. The worst storm surge
is expected to continue between Tyndall Air Force Base and Aucilla
River, where 5 to 10 feet of inundation is still ongoing.

2. Michael will continue to produce life-threatening hurricane-force
winds well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle,
southeast Alabama, and southwestern Georgia this evening as the core
of the hurricane continues to move inland.

3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash
flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into
portions southeast Alabama, Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeast
Virginia.

4. Tropical storm conditions will affect portions of the southeast
U.S. coast from northeast Florida through North Carolina, and
tropical storm warnings are in effect for these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 30.9N 85.1W 110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND
12H 11/0600Z 32.6N 83.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
24H 11/1800Z 35.1N 79.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 12/0600Z 37.6N 74.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 12/1800Z 40.7N 66.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 13/1800Z 46.7N 43.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/1800Z 49.2N 19.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 15/1800Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-10 21:38

WTNT34 KNHC 102054
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
400 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...EYE OF MICHAEL APPROACHING EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND CATASTROPHIC WINDS CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 85.1W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM W OF BAINBRIDGE GEORGIA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SW OF ALBANY GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...932 MB...27.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning west of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line has
been discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Warning along the west coast of Florida has been
discontinued south of the Suwanee River.

The Storm Surge Watch south of Anclote River has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Fernandina Beach Florida to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was
located near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 85.1 West. Michael is
moving toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast is expected this evening or tonight. A motion
toward the northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast on
Thursday through Friday night. On the forecast track, the core of
Michael will move across southeastern Alabama and southwestern
Georgia through this evening. Michael will then move northeastward
across the southeastern United States through Thursday, and
then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from the United States
on late Thursday night and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Michael is a dangerous category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Michael should weaken as it
crosses the southeastern United States through Thursday. Michael is
forecast to strengthen Thursday night and Friday when it moves off
the east coast of the United States and becomes a post-tropical
cyclone on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km). A wind gust to 69 mph (111 km/h) was recently reported
at the airport in Tallahassee, Florida. A sustained wind of 59 mph
(96 km/h) with a gust to 74 mph (118 km/h) was observed at a
University of Florida/Weatherflow observing site just north of St.
George Island, Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 932 mb (27.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: Water levels are beginning to recede in some
locations, however, the combination of a dangerous storm surge
and the tide will continue to cause normally dry areas near the
coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following
heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high
tide...

Tyndall Air Force Base FL to Aucilla River FL...5-10 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Tyndall Air Force Base...3-5 ft
Aucilla River FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft
Chassahowitzka to Anclote River FL...2-4 ft
Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to
Duck...2-4 ft

Water levels remain high along the coast of the Florida Panhandle. A
National Ocean Service water level station at Apalachicola recently
reported over 7 feet of inundation above ground level.

WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are occurring over
portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama, and
southwestern Georgia and will continue to spread inland over
south-central Georgia tonight.

With the eye of Michael moving inland, residents are reminded to not
venture out into the relative calm of the eye, as hazardous winds
will increase very quickly as the eye passes!

Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within
the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning tonight
through Friday.

Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions southeastern
Virginia, extreme northeastern North Carolina, and the Delmarva
Peninsula as Michael becomes post-tropical off the Mid-Atlantic
coast late Thursday night or Friday.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday...

Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of
southwest and central Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening
flash floods.

The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and into Virginia...3 to
6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall
could lead to life-threatening flash floods.

Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England
coast...1 to 3 inches.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible through tonight from
northern Florida into much of Georgia and southern South Carolina.

SURF: Swells generated by Michael will affect the coasts of the
eastern, northern, and western Gulf of Mexico through Thursday
morning. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-10 21:38

WTNT24 KNHC 102050
TCMAT4

HURRICANE MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018
2100 UTC WED OCT 10 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING WEST OF THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF THE SUWANEE RIVER.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH SOUTH OF ANCLOTE RIVER HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHAEL.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 85.1W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 932 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 140SE 100SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 210SE 240SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 85.1W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 85.5W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 32.6N 83.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 130SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 35.1N 79.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 160SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 37.6N 74.4W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 90SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 210SE 120SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 40.7N 66.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 140SE 120SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 300SE 210SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 46.7N 43.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 200SE 180SW 0NW.
34 KT...160NE 420SE 360SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 49.2N 19.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.9N 85.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

2018-10-10 20:34

WTNT64 KNHC 101953
TCUAT4

Hurricane Michael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
300 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...3 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...EYE OF MICHAEL APPROACHING I-10 IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE AND CATASTROPHIC WINDS CONTINUE...

Radar data indicate that the eye of Michael is now moving inland
over portions of Jackson County in the Florida Panhandle and is
nearing Interstate 10. Everyone in these areas is reminded not to
venture out into the relative calm of the eye, as hazardous winds
will increase very quickly as the eye passes!

Recently reported wind gusts include:

Marianna Florida airport: 102 mph (164 km/h)
University of Florida/Weatherflow Mexico Beach: 83 mph (134 km/h)
Panama City Beach National Ocean Service: 80 mph (129 km/h)
Tallahassee International Airport: 71 mph (115 km/h)
Donalsonville Georgia: 67 mph (107 km/h)
Downtown Tallahassee: 63 mph (101 km/h)

Dangerous storm surge continues along the coast of the Florida
Panhandle. A National Ocean Service water level station at
Apalachicola is still reporting over 7 feet of inundation above
ground level.


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 85.2W
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM S OF MARIANNA FLORIDA
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WNW OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...927 MB...27.37 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan

2018-10-10 19:35

WTNT64 KNHC 101854
TCUAT4

Hurricane Michael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
200 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...2 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...EYE OF MICHAEL MOVING INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EAST
OF PANAMA CITY...
...LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE AND CATASTROPHIC WINDS CONTINUE...

Radar data indicate that the eye of Michael is moving inland over
portions of Bay and Calhoun counties in the Florida Panhandle.
Everyone in these areas is reminded not to venture out into the
relative calm of the eye, as hazardous winds will increase very
quickly as the eye passes!

Recently reported wind gusts include:

Tyndall Air Force Base: 119 mph (191 km/h)
Florida State University Panama City Campus: 116 mph (187 km/h)
University of Florida/Weatherflow Mexico Beach: 104 mph (167 km/h)
Panama City Treatment Plant: 94 mph (151 km/h)
Panama City Beach National Ocean Service: 78 mph (126 km/h)

Dangerous storm surge continues along the coast of the Florida
Panhandle. A National Ocean Service water level station at
Apalachicola recently reported over 7.7 feet of inundation above
ground level.


SUMMARY OF 200 PM CDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.4N 85.3W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ENE OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...922 MB...27.22 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan

2018-10-10 19:35

WTNT34 KNHC 101836 CCA
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 16A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
100 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Corrected pressure in inches in summary block and text

...MICHAEL INTENSIFIES AS IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR MEXICO BEACH
FLORIDA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL OCCURING OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 85.5W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM NW OF MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SE OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...919 MB...27.14 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of the
Alabama/Florida border.

The Tropical Storm Watch along the west coast of Florida has been
discontinued south of Chassahowitzka.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including
Tampa Bay
* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida
* North of Fernandina Beach Florida to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
Satellite, aircraft, and radar data indicate that the eye of
Michael is making landfall just northwest of Mexico Beach, Florida.

At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located
near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 85.5 West. Michael is moving
toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the
northeast is expected this afternoon or tonight. A motion toward the
northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast on Thursday through
Friday night. On the forecast track, the core of Michael will move
inland across the Florida Panhandle this afternoon, and across
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia tonight. Michael will
move northeastward across the southeastern United States through
Thursday night, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from
the United States on Friday.

Recent data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to
near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Michael is an extremely
dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. Michael should weaken as it crosses the southeastern United
States. Michael is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone on
Friday, and strengthening is forecast as the system moves over the
western Atlantic.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km). A wind gust of 130 mph (210 mph) was recently
reported at a University of Florida/Weatherflow observing site near
Tyndall Air Force Base before the instrument failed. A wind gust to
129 mph (207 km/h) was reported at the Panama City Airport.

The latest minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 919 mb (27.14 inches).

A minimum pressure of 920 mb was recently reported by a University
of Florida/Weatherflow observing site near Tyndall Air Force Base.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Tyndall Air Force Base FL to Aucilla River FL...9-14 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Tyndall Air Force Base FL...6-9 ft
Aucilla River FL to Cedar Key FL...6-9 ft
Cedar Key FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft
Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to
Duck...2-4 ft

Water levels continue to rise quickly along the coast of the Florida
Panhandle. A National Ocean Service water level station at
Apalachicola recently reported over 6.5 feet of inundation above
ground level.

WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions will continue
to spread inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia this afternoon and
tonight.

With the landfall of Michael's eye occurring, everyone in the
landfall area is reminded not to venture out into the relative calm
of the eye, as hazardous winds will increase very quickly as the eye
passes!

Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within
the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning tonight
through Friday.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday...

Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of
southwest and central Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening
flash floods.

The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3
to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This
rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods.

Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England
coast...1-3 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Michael will affect the coasts of the
eastern, northern, and western Gulf of Mexico during the next day
or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible across parts of the Florida
Panhandle and the northern Florida Peninsula through this afternoon.
This risk will spread northward into parts of Georgia and southern
South Carolina this afternoon and tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-10 18:35

WTNT34 KNHC 101737
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
100 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...MICHAEL INTENSIFIES AS IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR MEXICO BEACH
FLORIDA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL OCCURING OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 85.5W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM NW OF MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SE OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...919 MB...27.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of the
Alabama/Florida border.

The Tropical Storm Watch along the west coast of Florida has been
discontinued south of Chassahowitzka.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including
Tampa Bay
* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida
* North of Fernandina Beach Florida to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
Satellite, aircraft, and radar data indicate that the eye of
Michael is making landfall just northwest of Mexico Beach, Florida.

At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located
near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 85.5 West. Michael is moving
toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the
northeast is expected this afternoon or tonight. A motion toward
the northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast on Thursday
through Friday night. On the forecast track, the core of Michael
will move inland across the Florida Panhandle this afternoon, and
across southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia tonight.
Michael will move northeastward across the southeastern United
States through Thursday night, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic
coast away from the United States on Friday.

Recent data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to
near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Michael is an extremely
dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. Michael should weaken as it crosses the southeastern United
States. Michael is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone on
Friday, and strengthening is forecast as the system moves over the
western Atlantic.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km). A wind gust of 130 mph (210 mph) was recently
reported at a University of Florida/Weatherflow observing site near
Tyndall Air Force Base before the instrument failed. A wind gust to
129 mph (207 km/h) was reported at the Panama City Airport.

The latest minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 919 mb (27.41 inches).

A minimum pressure of 920 mb was recently reported by a University
of Florida/Weatherflow observing site near Tyndall Air Force Base.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Tyndall Air Force Base FL to Aucilla River FL...9-14 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Tyndall Air Force Base FL...6-9 ft
Aucilla River FL to Cedar Key FL...6-9 ft
Cedar Key FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft
Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to
Duck...2-4 ft

Water levels continue to rise quickly along the coast of the Florida
Panhandle. A National Ocean Service water level station at
Apalachicola recently reported over 6.5 feet of inundation above
ground level.

WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions will continue
to spread inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia this afternoon and
tonight.

With the landfall of Michael's eye occurring, everyone in the
landfall area is reminded not to venture out into the relative calm
of the eye, as hazardous winds will increase very quickly as the eye
passes!

Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within
the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning tonight
through Friday.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday...

Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of
southwest and central Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening
flash floods.

The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3
to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This
rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods.

Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England
coast...1-3 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Michael will affect the coasts of the
eastern, northern, and western Gulf of Mexico during the next day
or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible across parts of the Florida
Panhandle and the northern Florida Peninsula through this afternoon.
This risk will spread northward into parts of Georgia and southern
South Carolina this afternoon and tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-10 17:37

WTNT64 KNHC 101652
TCUAT4

Hurricane Michael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1200 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...12 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...EYEWALL OF MICHAEL COMING ASHORE ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BETWEEN ST. VINCENT ISLAND AND PANAMA CITY...
...LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE AND CATASTROPHIC WINDS MOVING
ONSHORE...

With the landfall of Michael's eye imminent, everyone in the
landfall area is reminded not to venture out into the relative calm
of the eye, as hazardous winds will increase very quickly as the eye
passes!

A weather station at the Gulf County Emergency Operations Center in
Port St. Joe recently reported a wind gust of 106 mph (171 km/h).
A Weatherflow station is St. Andrew Bay recently reported a
sustained wind of 62 mph (100 km/h) and a wind gust of 77 mph (124
km/h). The Apalachicola airport recently reported sustained winds
of 63 mph (102 km/h) with a gust of 89 mph (143 km/h).

Water levels continue to rise quickly along the coast of the Florida
Panhandle. A National Ocean Service water level station at
Apalachicola recently reported over 6.5 feet of inundation above
ground level.


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 85.7W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WSW OF MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...919 MB...27.14 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Brennan

2018-10-10 16:39

WTNT64 KNHC 101554
TCUAT4

Hurricane Michael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1100 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...11 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...CORE OF MICHAEL NEARING THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
BETWEEN ST. VINCENT ISLAND AND PANAMA CITY...

A private weather station on St. George Island, Florida, recently
reported a sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) and wind gust of 66
mph (106 km/h). The Apalachicola airport recently reported
sustained winds of 45 mph (72 km/h) with a gust of 76 mph (122
km/h).

Water levels continue to rise quickly along the coast of the Florida
Panhandle. A National Ocean Service water level station at
Apalachicola recently reported nearly 5.5 feet of inundation above
ground level.


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM CDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 85.8W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SW OF MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-10 16:39

WTNT64 KNHC 101528
TCUAT4

Hurricane Michael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1030 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...MICHAEL STILL STRENGTHENING AS THE EYE NEARS THE COAST OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph
(240 km/h) with higher gusts. The aircraft also reported that the
minimum pressure has fallen to 923 mb (27.26 inches).

The Apalachicola airport recently reported a wind gust of 72 mph
(101 km/h).

Water levels continue to rise quickly along the coast of the Florida
Panhandle. A National Ocean Service water level station at
Apalachicola recently reported over 5 feet of inundation above
ground level.


SUMMARY OF 1030 AM CDT...1530 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 85.9W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-10 15:37

WTNT44 KNHC 101450
TCDAT4

Hurricane Michael Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Michael is an extremely impressive hurricane in visible and infrared
satellite imagery this morning. The eye has continued to warm and
become even more distinct, while remaining embedded within an area
of very cold cloud tops. Data from NOAA and U.S. Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate that the pressure has continued to fall
this morning and is now around 928 mb. Flight-level, SFMR, and NWS
WSR-88D Doppler wind data all support an intensity of 125 kt. The
hurricane only has a few hours left over water during which
additional intensification is possible. Recent radar imagery
suggest that an outer eyewall may be trying to form, and this could
slow or halt the intensification process. Although steady weakening
is predicted once the hurricane moves inland, the core of Michael
will bring hurricane-force winds well inland over the Florida
Panhandle, southeastern Alabama, and southwest Georgia. As the
circulation emerges over the western Atlantic, intensification due
to baroclinic process is expected, and Michael should complete its
transition to an extratropical low by 48 hours when it is off the
U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast. The system is predicted to remain a
powerful extratropical cyclone over the north Atlantic through at
least day 4.

Aircraft and radar fixes show that Michael has made its much
anticipated north-northeastward turn, and the hurricane is expected
to make landfall along the coast of the Florida Panhandle early this
afternoon. Michael should turn northeastward and begin to accelerate
as it becomes embedded within the mid-latitude flow while moving
across the southeast U.S. through Thursday night. The cyclone is
forecast to emerge over the western Atlantic on Friday, and move
rapidly eastward-northeastward across the north Atlantic this
weekend. The track guidance remains in excellent agreement, and the
updated NHC track forecast is very close to the previous advisory.

Tropical storm warnings have been extended northward along the U.S.
East Coast to Duck, North Carolina. Non-tropical watches, warnings,
and advisories will be issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards
north of Duck, North Carolina, as Michael is expected to be
post-tropical when it affects those areas.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is occurring along portions of the
Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast. The worst storm surge
is expected later today and tonight between Tyndall Air Force Base
and Keaton Beach, where 9 to 14 feet of inundation is possible.

2. Michael will produce potentially catastrophic wind damage
where the core of the hurricane moves onshore later today in the
Florida Panhandle, with the highest risk between Apalachicola and
Panama City.

3. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds will occur well inland
across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and
southwestern Georgia as the core of the hurricane moves inland
later today and this evening.

4. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash
flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into
portions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeast Virginia.

5. Tropical storm conditions will affect portions of the southeast
U.S. coast from northeast Florida through North Carolina, and
tropical storm warnings are in effect for these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 29.4N 86.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 31.3N 84.7W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
24H 11/1200Z 33.6N 82.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 12/0000Z 35.8N 78.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 12/1200Z 38.7N 71.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 13/1200Z 45.5N 52.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/1200Z 49.0N 29.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 15/1200Z 50.0N 13.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-10 15:37

WTNT34 KNHC 101450
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...CORE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MICHAEL CLOSING IN ON THE
COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL IMMINENT...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 86.0W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...928 MB...27.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of North
Carolina from Surf City to Duck including the Pamlico and Albemarle
Sounds.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the coast of North Carolina
from Ocracoke Inlet to Duck.

The Tropical Storm Watch for the Gulf coast west of the Mississippi/
Alabama border has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including
Tampa Bay
* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida
* North of Fernandina Beach Florida to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located
near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 86.0 West. Michael is moving
toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the
northeast is expected this afternoon or tonight. A motion toward
the northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast on Thursday
through Friday night. On the forecast track, the core of Michael is
expected to move ashore along the Florida Panhandle early this
afternoon, move northeastward across the southeastern United States
tonight and Thursday, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away
from the United States on Friday.

Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h)
with higher gusts. Michael is an extremely dangerous category 4
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some
strengthening is still possible before landfall. After landfall,
Michael should weaken as it crosses the southeastern United States.
Michael is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone on Friday, and
strengthening is forecast as the system moves over the western
Atlantic.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km). A private weather station at Bald Point, Florida,
recently reported a sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) with a gust
to 61 mph (98 km/h). A wind gust to 46 mph (74 km/h) was recently
reported inland at Tallahassee, Florida.

The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the
reconnaissance aircraft is 928 mb (27.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Tyndall Air Force Base FL to Aucilla River FL...9-14 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Tyndall Air Force Base FL...6-9 ft
Aucilla River FL to Cedar Key FL...6-9 ft
Cedar Key FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft
Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to
Duck...2-4 ft

WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are spreading
onshore along the U.S. Gulf Coast within the warning areas.
Hurricane conditions will also spread well inland across portions of
the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia
later today and tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within
the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning tonight
through Friday.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday...

Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of
southwest and central Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening
flash floods.

The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3
to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This
rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods.

Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England
coast...1-3 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Michael will affect the coasts of the
eastern, northern, and western Gulf of Mexico during the next day
or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible across parts of the Florida
Panhandle and the northern Florida Peninsula through this afternoon.
This risk will spread northward into parts of Georgia and southern
South Carolina this afternoon and tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-10 15:37

WTNT24 KNHC 101449
TCMAT4

HURRICANE MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018
1500 UTC WED OCT 10 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA FROM SURF CITY TO DUCK INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA
FROM OCRACOKE INLET TO DUCK.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE GULF COAST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI/
ALABAMA BORDER HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA...INCLUDING
TAMPA BAY
* OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* SUWANEE RIVER FLORIDA TO CHASSAHOWITZKA FLORIDA
* NORTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHASSAHOWITZKA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHAEL.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 86.0W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 928 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......150NE 140SE 80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 240SE 210SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 86.0W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 86.3W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 31.3N 84.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 33.6N 82.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 140SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 35.8N 78.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 180SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 38.7N 71.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 120SE 120SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 240SE 180SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 45.5N 52.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 210SE 180SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 360SE 270SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 49.0N 29.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 50.0N 13.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 86.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

2018-10-10 14:37

WTNT64 KNHC 101355
TCUAT4

Hurricane Michael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
900 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...9 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AS POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC MICHAEL APPROACHES...

A private weather station in Bald Point, Florida, recently reported
a sustained wind of 48 mph (77 km/h) and wind gust of 59 mph (95
km/h). The Apalachicola airport recently reported a wind gust of 58
mph (93 km/h). A Weatherflow station in St. Andrew Bay recently
reported a sustained wind of 37 mph (60 km/h) and a gust of 48 mph
(77 km/h).

Water levels continue to rise quickly along the coast of the Florida
Panhandle. A National Ocean Service water level station at
Apalachicola recently reported over 4 feet of inundation above
ground level.


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 86.1W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.49 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan

2018-10-10 13:35

WTNT64 KNHC 101252
TCUAT4

Hurricane Michael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
800 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...8 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...WATER LEVELS QUICKLY RISING AND WINDS INCREASING ALONG THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC MICHAEL APPROACHES...

A National Ocean Service station at Apalachicola recently reported
a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a wind gust of 53 mph (85
km/h).


SUMMARY OF 800 AM CDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 86.2W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan

2018-10-10 12:34

WTNT34 KNHC 101145
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
700 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE MICHAEL HEADING TOWARD THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL IMMINENT...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 86.3W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including
Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida
* North of Fernandina Beach Florida to Surf City North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Surf City North Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located
near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 86.3 West. Michael is moving
toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north-
northeast is expected later this morning, with a turn toward the
northeast expected this afternoon or tonight. A motion toward the
northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast on Thursday and
Friday. On the forecast track, the eye of Michael is expected to
move ashore over the Florida Panhandle later today, move
northeastward across the southeastern United States tonight and
Thursday, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from the
United States on Friday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph
(230 km/h) with higher gusts. Michael is an extremely dangerous
category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Some additional strengthening is possible before landfall. After
landfall, Michael should weaken as it crosses the southeastern
United States.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km). A wind gust to 56 mph (91 km/h) was recently
reported at Apalachicola Regional Airport.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on NOAA and Air Force
Reserve Hunter aircraft data is 933 mb (27.55 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Tyndall Air Force Base FL to Aucilla River FL...9-14 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Tyndall Air Force Base FL...6-9 ft
Aucilla River FL to Cedar Key FL...6-9 ft
Cedar Key FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft
Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are spreading onshore along the
U.S. Gulf Coast within the warning area, with hurricane conditions
spreading onshore later this morning within the hurricane warning
area. Hurricane conditions will also spread well inland across
portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and
southwestern Georgia later today and tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within
the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning tonight,
and are possible in the watch area by late Thursday and Thursday
night.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday...

Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of
southwest and central Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening
flash floods.

The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3
to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This
rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods.

Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England
coast...1-3 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Michael will affect the coasts of the
eastern, northern, and western Gulf of Mexico during the next day
or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible across parts of the
Florida Panhandle and the northern Florida Peninsula through this
afternoon. This risk will spread into parts of central and southern
Georgia and southern South Carolina this afternoon and tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-10 11:38

WTNT64 KNHC 101059
TCUAT4

Hurricane Michael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
600 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...6 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SPREADING ONSHORE OF THE COAST OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

NOAA buoy 42039, located about 90 miles (145 km) south-southwest
of Panama City, Florida, recently reported sustained winds
of 60 mph (97 km/h) and a wind gust of 76 mph (122 km/h). A wind
gust to 54 mph (87 km/h) was recently reported at Apalachicola
Regional Airport.


SUMMARY OF 600 AM CDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 86.3W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-10 10:34

WTNT64 KNHC 100956
TCUAT4

Hurricane Michael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
500 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...5 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...RAINBANDS OF MICHAEL SPREADING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data has fallen to 937 mb
(27.67 inches). NOAA buoy 42039 recently reported sustained winds
of 60 mph (97 km/h) and a wind gust of 67 mph (108 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 500 AM CDT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 86.4W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-10-10 09:34

WTNT44 KNHC 100854
TCDAT4

Hurricane Michael Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Michael has continued to strengthen during the past
several hours. The maximum flight-level winds at 700 mb have been
136 kt, and the maximum surface wind estimates from the Stepped
Frequency Microwave Radiometer are in the 120-125 kt range. In
addition, the central pressure has fallen to near 943 mb. Based on
on the aircraft data, the initial intensity is increased to 120 kt.
This is a little below the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB,
SAB, and the CIMSS satellite consensus. The cirrus outflow
associated with Michael has improved over the past several hours,
with the outflow flowing into an upper-level low to the southeast
and along the east side of a large mid-latitude trough to the west.

The initial motion is 360/11. Michael is embedded in the flow
between a large mid- to upper-level ridge over the western Atlantic
and the northeastern United States and the aforementioned trough
across the central United States. These features should cause the
hurricane to turn north-northeastward during the next 12 h or so,
followed by a turn toward the northeast and a significant increase
in forward speed. Near the end of the forecast period, Michael or
its remnants should turn more eastward. The forecast track calls for
the eye to make landfall in the Florida Panhandle at about the 12 h
point, followed by a northeastward motion across the southeastern
United States between 12-48 h. The forecast guidance remains
tightly clustered, and the new forecast track is very close to the
previous track and the various consensus models through 72 h.

Additional strengthening is expected before landfall as Michael
remains over warm water and in an environment of light to moderate
vertical shear. After landfall, Michael is expected to steadily
weaken as it crosses the southeastern United States. Extratropical
transition is expected to begin while Michael is over land, and
this should be complete just after the 48 h point. The cyclone
should re-intensify due to baroclinic forcing as it moves rapidly
northeastward over the north Atlantic. The new intensity forecast
has been nudged upward at the landfall time based on current
trends. Otherwise, it is an update of the previous forecast.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the hurricane
warning area during the next few hours, so all preparations should
be rushed to completion.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the
coasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, where
a storm surge warning is in effect. The worst storm surge is
expected between Tyndall Air Force Base and Keaton Beach, where 9 to
13 feet of inundation is possible.

2. Michael is likely to produce potentially catastrophic wind
damage where the core of the hurricane moves onshore in the Florida
Panhandle, and everyone in the hurricane warning area should
prepare for life-threatening hurricane winds. Dangerous hurricane-
force winds will also extend well inland across portions of the
Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as
Michael moves inland.

3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash
flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into
portions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeast Virginia.

4. Tropical storm conditions will likely affect portions of the
southeast U.S. coast from northeast Florida through North Carolina,
and tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect for these
areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 28.3N 86.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 29.9N 85.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 32.1N 83.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
36H 11/1800Z 34.4N 80.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 12/0600Z 36.8N 75.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 13/0600Z 43.5N 59.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/0600Z 49.5N 36.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 15/0600Z 52.0N 17.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-10-10 09:34

WTNT34 KNHC 100848
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 MICHAEL STRENGTHENS
FURTHER AS IT HEADS NORTHWARD TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 86.5W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 130 MI...215 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect from South Santee River,
South Carolina to Surf City, North Carolina.

The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued west of the
Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including
Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida
* North of Fernandina Beach Florida to Surf City North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Surf City North Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is
a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next
12 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the
next 12 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located
near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 86.5 West. Michael is moving
toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north-
northeast is expected this morning, with a turn toward the northeast
expected this afternoon or tonight. A motion toward the northeast at
a faster forward speed is forecast on Thursday and Friday. On the
forecast track, the eye of Michael is expected to move ashore over
the Florida Panhandle later today, move northeastward across the
southeastern United States tonight and Thursday, and then move off
the Mid-Atlantic coast away from the United States on Friday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220
km/h) with higher gusts. Michael is an extremely dangerous category
4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some
additional strengthening is possible before landfall. After
landfall, Michael should weaken as it crosses the southeastern
United States.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km). NOAA buoy 42039 to the northeast of the center recently
reported sustained winds of 54 mph (85 km/h) and a wind gust of
63 mph (101 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 943 mb (27.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Tyndall Air Force Base FL to Keaton Beach FL...9-13 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Tyndall Air Force Base FL...6-9 ft
Keaton Beach FL to Cedar Key FL...6-9 ft
Cedar Key FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft
Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area along the U.S. Gulf Coast today, with tropical storm
conditions expected to begin during the next few hours. Hurricane
conditions will also spread well inland across portions of the
Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area during the next several hours, and are possible within the
tropical storm watch area by that time. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the hurricane watch area today.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within
the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning tonight,
and are possible in the watch area by late Thursday and Thursday
night.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday...

Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of
southwest and central Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening
flash floods.

The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3
to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This
rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods.

Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England
coast...1-3 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Michael are affecting the coasts of the
eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico, and will spread to portions of
the northwestern and western Gulf of Mexico coast during the next
day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible across parts of the
Florida Panhandle and the northern Florida Peninsula through this
afternoon. This risk will spread into parts of central and southern
Georgia and southern South Carolina this afternoon and tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Hourly position estimates will begin at 500 AM CDT.
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-10-10 09:34

WTNT24 KNHC 100847
TCMAT4

HURRICANE MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018
0900 UTC WED OCT 10 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF THE
OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA...INCLUDING
TAMPA BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* SUWANEE RIVER FLORIDA TO CHASSAHOWITZKA FLORIDA
* NORTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHASSAHOWITZKA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER
* SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION
OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS
A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS
SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM
RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE DURING
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHAEL.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 86.5W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 943 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......160NE 140SE 70SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 86.5W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 86.6W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 29.9N 85.7W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 70SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 32.1N 83.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 140SE 90SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 34.4N 80.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 36.8N 75.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 140SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 43.5N 59.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 240SE 180SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 49.5N 36.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 52.0N 17.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.3N 86.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-10-10 06:36

WTNT34 KNHC 100555
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
100 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...MICHAEL BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 86.6W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...210 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including
Tampa Bay
* Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida
* north of Fernandina Beach Florida to South Santee River South
Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is
a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next
24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the
next 12 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Michael was
located near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 86.6 West. Michael is
moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward motion
is expected this morning, followed by a northeastward motion later
today and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Michael
will move across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico this morning. The
center of Michael's eye is then expected to move inland over the
Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area later today, move
northeastward across the southeastern United States tonight
and Thursday, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from the
United States on Friday.

Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph
(210 km/h) with higher gusts. Michael is now a category 4 hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional
strengthening is possible today before Michael makes landfall in the
Florida Panhandle or the Florida Big Bend area. Weakening is
expected after landfall as Michael moves across the southeastern
United States.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter data is 945 mb (27.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Mexico Beach FL to Keaton Beach FL...9-13 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Mexico Beach FL...6-9 ft
Keaton Beach FL to Cedar Key FL...6-9 ft
Cedar Key FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft
Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area along the U.S. Gulf Coast today, with tropical storm
conditions expected during the next several hours. Hurricane
conditions will also spread well inland across portions of the
Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area this morning, and are possible within the tropical storm watch
area by that time. Hurricane conditions are possible within the
hurricane watch area today.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along
the southeast U.S. coast later today, and possible in the watch
area by tonight.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday...

Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of
southwest and central Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life threatening
flash floods.

The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3
to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This
rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods.

Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England
coast...1-3 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Michael are affecting the coasts of the
eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico, and will spread to portions of
the northwestern and western Gulf of Mexico coast during the next
day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

TORNADOES: The threat for tornadoes will increase today into over
parts of the Florida Panhandle, the northern Florida Peninsula, and
southern Georgia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-10-10 03:33

WTNT44 KNHC 100252
TCDAT4

Hurricane Michael Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018

Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft this
afternoon and evening indicate that Michael has been undergoing a
rapid deepening phase with the pressure having dropped to 947 mb, a
decrease of 20 mb between 1800Z and 0200Z with most of those
pressures falls occurring during the past few hours. Michael's eye
has become more distinct in GOES-16 high-resolution infrared
satellite imagery, with a solid ring of cloud top temperatures
colder than -75 deg C surrounding the warming eye. Some cloud tops
in the eyewall have been as cold as -88C, which is very impressive
for a Gulf system. The peak 8000-ft flight-level winds measured by
the NOAA aircraft thus far has been 130 kt and the strongest SFMR
surface wind speed observed has been 110 kt in the same location as
the peak flight-level winds. Based on these wind data, along with a
central pressure of 947 mb, Michael's intensity has been increased
to 110 kt. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, along
with objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ADT and NHC, support an
intensity of 115-127 kt. However, those also estimates also would
support a central pressure of about 935 mb, which the aircraft has
not measured thus far.

The initial motion estimate is due north, or 360/10 kt. Michael is
essentially on the previous advisory track, and there is no
significant change to the previous track forecast discussion. The
models have settled in a stable forecast pattern, which calls for
Michael to remain embedded within deep southerly flow for the next
24 hours between a substantial ridge to the east and a highly
amplified mid-latitude trough moving eastward across the western and
central U.S. and northern Mexico. As a result, the dangerous
hurricane is expected to move northward to north-northeastward and
make landfall along the coast of the central panhandle of Florida by
late Wednesday afternoon. After landfall, increasing southwesterly
flow ahead of the approaching deep-layer trough is expected to
accelerate Michael toward the northeast through 48 h, with the
cyclone moving across the southeastern U.S. late Wednesday and
Thursday, and emerging over the western Atlantic by early Friday. A
continued northeastward motion at forward speeds of 30-40 kt is
forecast at 72-120 h when Michael is expected to be an extratropical
cyclone. The new NHC forecast track is essentially just an update of
the previous advisory track, and lies close to the tightly packed
consensus models TVCN, TVCX, TCON, and NOAA-HCCA.

Similar to the previous advisory, the environment ahead of Michael
is expected to remain conducive for additional strengthening until
landfall occurs due to SSTs of at least 85 deg F beneath the
hurricane, combined with decreasing vertical wind shear along with
the shear vector shifting from current west-northwesterly to a less
hostile southwesterly component, which will be more along Michael's
forecast track. As a result, Michael is now explicitly forecast to
become a category 4 hurricane before landfall occurs. After
landfall, significant weakening is expected while Michael moves over
the southeastern United States, but the cyclone is forecast to
re-strengthen over the western Atlantic due to baroclinic forcing
after it merges with a front and becomes extratropical on Friday.
The new intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the IVCN,
HCCA, and FSSE consensus models throughout the 120-h period.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the hurricane
warning area by Wednesday morning, so all preparations should be
rushed to completion.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the
coasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, where
a storm surge warning is in effect. The worst storm surge is
expected between Mexico Beach and Keaton Beach, where 9 to 13 feet
of inundation is possible. Water levels will rise well in advance of
the center of Michael, and residents within the storm surge warning
area should finish preparations to protect life and property today.

2. Everyone in the hurricane warning area along the Florida Gulf
Coast should prepare for life-threatening major hurricane winds
associated with the core of Michael. Hurricane force winds will also
extend well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle,
southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as Michael moves inland.

3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash
flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into
portions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeast Virginia.

4. Tropical storm conditions will likely affect portions of the
southeast U.S. coast from northeast Florida through North Carolina,
and tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect for these
areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 27.1N 86.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 28.7N 86.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 30.8N 84.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
36H 11/1200Z 33.0N 82.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 12/0000Z 35.2N 78.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 13/0000Z 40.8N 65.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/0000Z 47.2N 44.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 15/0000Z 51.2N 24.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-10 00:34

WTNT34 KNHC 092344
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
700 PM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018

...MAJOR HURRICANE MICHAEL GETTING MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 86.5W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.14 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including
Tampa Bay
* Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida
* Fernandina Beach Florida to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next
24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.mb (millibars)

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located
near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 86.5 West. Michael is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward motion is
expected through tonight, followed by a northeastward motion on
Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Michael
will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight. The
center of Michael's eye is then expected to move inland over the
Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then
move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday
night and Thursday, and move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from
the United States on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Michael is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Strengthening is expected overnight and on
Wednesday, and Michael is forecast to be near category 4 strength
when it makes landfall in the Florida Panhandle or the Florida Big
Bend area. Weakening is expected after landfall as Michael moves
across the southeastern United States.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The latest minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 953 mb (28.14 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Mexico Beach FL to Keaton Beach FL...9-13 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Mexico Beach FL...6-9 ft
Keaton Beach FL to Cedar Key FL...6-9 ft
Cedar Key FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft
Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical
storm conditions expected by tonight or early Wednesday. Hurricane
conditions will also spread well inland across portions of the
Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area by tonight or early Wednesday, and are possible within the
tropical storm watch area by that time. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the hurricane watch area by Wednesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along
the southeast U.S. coast by Wednesday, and possible in the watch
area by late Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday...

Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of
southwest and central Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life threatening
flash floods.

The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3
to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This
rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods.

Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England
coast...1-3 inches.

Western Cuba...An additional 1 to 2 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Michael are affecting the coasts of the
eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico, and will spread to portions of
the northwestern and western Gulf of Mexico coast during the next
day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

TORNADOES: The threat for tornadoes will increase late tonight into
Wednesday over parts of the Florida Panhandle, the northern Florida
Peninsula, and southern Georgia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-09 21:33

WTNT44 KNHC 092055
TCDAT4

Hurricane Michael Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
400 PM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018

The eye of Michael became very distinct in both visible and
infrared satellite pictures early this afternoon, but has been a
little more cloud filled since that time. Very deep convection has
continue to develop over the southeastern and eastern portion of
the eyewall and rotate around the north and west sides. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft measured a peak 700-mb
flight-level wind of 109 kt in the northeast eyewall as it exited
the storm just prior to 1800 UTC, and another Air Force Hurricane
Hunter very recently made its first pass through the eye and
reported similar flight-level winds in the southeast quadrant, and a
minimum pressure of 957 mb, down about 8 mb over the past few hours.
Based on these observations and Dvorak satellite classifications of
115 kt and 102 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively, the initial
intensity has been increased to 105 kt for this advisory.

The environment ahead of Michael is expected to remain conducive
for additional strengthening during the next 12 to 18 hours. There
may be some increase in southwesterly shear as the hurricane nears
the Gulf Coast, but it is not likely to result in a significant
decrease in intensity before landfall. The global models continue
to deepen the cyclone over the Gulf, increasing the confidence that
some additional intensification will occur. The new NHC intensity
forecast brings Michael up to 110 kt, and is in best agreement with
the SHIPS and HCCA models. After landfall, significant weakening
should occur while Michael moves over the southeastern United
States, but the cyclone is predicted to re-strengthen over the
western Atlantic due to baroclinic processes after it merges with a
front and becomes extratropical on Friday.

Michael is still moving north-northwestward to northward at about
10 kt. The hurricane should turn due northward this evening, then
northeastward on Wednesday as a trough moves into the central
United States. Michael should become embedded within the westerlies
in 48 to 72 hours, and then accelerate northeastward to east-
northeastward over the western and central-north Atlantic over
the weekend. There is not much spread in the dynamical model
guidance, and little change was required to the official forecast.
Although the NHC forecast brings the center onshore Wednesday
afternoon, conditions will deteriorate along the northeastern
Gulf Coast tonight.

Tropical storm watches and warnings have been expanded northward
along the U.S. East Coast from northeastern Florida to North
Carolina. Non-tropical watches, warnings, and advisories will be
issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards north of Duck, North
Carolina, as Michael is expected to be post-tropical when it affects
those areas.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the
coasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, where
a storm surge warning is in effect. The worst storm surge is
expected between Mexico Beach and Keaton Beach, where 9 to 13 feet
of inundation is possible. Water levels will rise well in advance of
the center of Michael, and residents within the storm surge warning
area should finish preparations to protect life and property today.

2. Everyone in the hurricane warning area along the Florida Gulf
Coast should prepare for life-threatening major hurricane winds
associated with the core of Michael. Hurricane force winds will also
extend well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle,
southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as Michael moves inland.

3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash
flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into
portions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeast Virginia.

4. Tropical storm conditions will likely affect portions of the
southeast U.S. coast from northeast Florida through North Carolina,
and tropical storm watches and warnings have been issued for these
areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 26.0N 86.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 27.6N 86.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 29.7N 85.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 31.8N 84.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
48H 11/1800Z 33.9N 81.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 12/1800Z 39.0N 70.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/1800Z 45.5N 51.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/1800Z 50.0N 30.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-09 21:33

WTNT34 KNHC 092054
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
400 PM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018

...MICHAEL STRENGTHENS TO A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 86.4W
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Fernandina Beach
Florida to South Santee River South Carolina.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from South Santee River South
Carolina to Duck North Carolina, including Pamlico and Albemarle
Sounds.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including
Tampa Bay
* Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida
* Fernandina Beach Florida to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next
24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was
located near latitude 26.0 North, longitude 86.4 West. Michael is
moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward motion
is expected through tonight, followed by a northeastward motion on
Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
Michael will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight.
The center of Michael is then expected to move inland over the
Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then
move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday
night and Thursday, and move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from
the United States on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h)
with higher gusts. Michael is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening
is expected, and Michael is forecast to be a major hurricane at
landfall in Florida. Weakening is expected after landfall as
Michael moves through the southeastern United States.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km). NOAA buoy 42003 recently reported 1-minute mean winds of
63 mph (101 km/h) and a wind gust of 72 mph (115 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure based on data from an Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 957 mb (28.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Mexico Beach FL to Keaton Beach FL...9-13 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Mexico Beach FL...6-9 ft
Keaton Beach FL to Cedar Key FL...6-9 ft
Cedar Key FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft
Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical
storm conditions expected by tonight or early Wednesday. Hurricane
conditions will also spread well inland across portions of the
Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area by tonight or early Wednesday, and are possible within the
tropical storm watch area by that time. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the hurricane watch area by Wednesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along
the southeast U.S. coast by Wednesday, and possible in the watch
area by late Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday...

Western Cuba...An additional 1 to 2 inches.

Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of
southwest and central Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life threatening
flash floods.

The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3
to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This
rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods.

Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England
coast...1-3 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Michael are affecting the coasts of the
eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico, and will spread to portions of
the northwestern and western Gulf of Mexico coast during the next
day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

TORNADOES: The threat for tornadoes will increase late tonight into
Wednesday over parts of the Florida Panhandle, the northern Florida
Peninsula, and southern Georgia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-09 21:33

WTNT24 KNHC 092054
TCMAT4

HURRICANE MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018
2100 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM FERNANDINA BEACH
FLORIDA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH
CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA... INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA... INCLUDING
TAMPA BAY
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* SUWANEE RIVER FLORIDA TO CHASSAHOWITZKA FLORIDA
* FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHASSAHOWITZKA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA... INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION
OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS
IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS
SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM
RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHAEL.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 86.4W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......150NE 140SE 70SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 210SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 86.4W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 86.4W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.6N 86.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 70SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 29.7N 85.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 31.8N 84.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 33.9N 81.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 140SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 39.0N 70.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 240SE 180SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 45.5N 51.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 50.0N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.0N 86.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

2018-10-09 18:33

WTNT34 KNHC 091741
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
100 PM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018

...EYE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE MICHAEL MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 86.4W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including
Tampa Bay
* Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Fernandina Beach Florida to South Santee River South Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next
24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located
near latitude 25.4 North, longitude 86.4 West. Michael is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward motion is
expected through tonight, followed by a northeastward motion on
Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
Michael will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight.
The center of Michael is then expected to move inland over the
Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then
move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday
night and Thursday, and move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from
the United States by Friday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Michael is
forecast to be a major hurricane at landfall in Florida. Weakening
is expected after landfall as Michael moves through the southeastern
United States.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km). NOAA buoy 42003 recently reported 1-minute mean
winds of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a wind gust of 59 mph (94 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft
is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass FL to Cedar Key FL...8-12 ft
Cedar Key FL to Crystal River FL...6-8 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Indian Pass FL...6-9 ft
Crystal River FL to Aripeka FL...4-6 ft
Aripeka FL to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical
storm conditions expected by tonight or early Wednesday. Hurricane
conditions will also spread well inland across portions of the
Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area by tonight or early Wednesday, and are possible within the
tropical storm watch area by that time. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the hurricane watch area by Wednesday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the
southeast U.S. coast Wednesday night and Thursday.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday...

Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.

Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and southern
Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches.
This rainfall could lead to life threatening flash floods.

Eastern Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3 to 6
inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods.

Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England
coast...1-3 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Michael are affecting the coasts of the
eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico, and will spread to portions of
the northwestern and western Gulf of Mexico coast during the next
day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

TORNADOES: The threat for tornadoes will increase late tonight into
Wednesday over parts of the Florida Panhandle, the northern Florida
Peninsula, and southern Georgia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-09 15:33

WTNT44 KNHC 091443
TCDAT4

Hurricane Michael Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018

Michael has continued to become better organized this morning. The
hurricane has become more symmetric with the eye becoming more
apparent in infrared and visible satellite imagery. Data from both
NOAA and U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show
that the minimum pressure has dropped to around 965 mb, and a blend
of the flight-level and SFMR winds support an initial intensity of
95 kt for this advisory. With two aircraft in the storm, they have
been able to sample each of the four quadrants a couple of times
this morning, providing better confidence in the analyzed wind
field. The planes actually passed through the eye around the same
time just before 1200 UTC, and reported that they could see one
another.

The outflow pattern has become better established over the
hurricane, but there is still a little evidence of some westerly
shear. The shear should continue to decrease, and further
strengthening is expected until landfall on Wednesday. Michael is
expected to become a major hurricane later today, and remain a
dangerous major hurricane through landfall. Significant weakening
should occur as the center moves inland over the southeastern United
States, but re-strengthening as an extratropical low is expected
when the system moves over the western Atlantic.

Michael is moving between north-northwest and north at about 10 kt.
The track forecast reasoning is the same as the past several
advisories, as Michael should move generally northward through early
Wednesday between a ridge over the western Atlantic and a deep-layer
trough over the central United States. As the trough moves eastward
it will cause Michael to turn northeastward on Wednesday. The
hurricane should then continue northeastward and accelerate as it
becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The track guidance
is in very good agreement through the first 36-48 hours, with some
differences in forward speed thereafter. The GFS and ECMWF have
trended slower after landfall, and the new NHC track has been
adjusted accordingly.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the
coasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, and a
storm surge warning is in effect for these areas. Water levels will
rise well in advance of the center of Michael, and residents within
the storm surge warning area should finish preparations to protect
life and property today.

2. Everyone in the hurricane warning area along the Florida Gulf
Coast should prepare for life-threatening major hurricane winds
associated with the core of Michael. Hurricane force winds will also
extend well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle,
southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as Michael moves inland.

3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash
flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into
portions of Georgia and South Carolina.

4. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding
over portions of western Cuba during the next day or so.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 25.0N 86.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 26.7N 86.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 28.8N 86.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 30.8N 85.1W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
48H 11/1200Z 33.0N 82.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 12/1200Z 37.5N 74.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/1200Z 44.0N 56.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/1200Z 50.0N 38.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-09 15:33

WTNT34 KNHC 091442
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORT THAT MICHAEL IS STILL
STRENGTHENING...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 86.2W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch for the coast of Alabama has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including
Tampa Bay
* Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Fernandina Beach Florida to South Santee River South Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located
near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 86.2 West. Michael is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward motion is
expected through tonight, followed by a northeastward motion on
Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
Michael will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight.
The center of Michael is then expected to move inland over the
Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then
move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday
night and Thursday, and move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from
the United States by Friday.

Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near
110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is
expected, and Michael is forecast to be a major hurricane at
landfall in Florida. Weakening is expected after landfall as Michael
moves through the southeastern United States.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km). NOAA buoy 42003 recently reported 1-minute mean winds of
45 mph (72 km/h) and a wind gust of 56 mph (91 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft
is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass FL to Cedar Key FL...8-12 ft
Cedar Key FL to Crystal River FL...6-8 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Indian Pass FL...6-9 ft
Crystal River FL to Aripeka FL...4-6 ft
Aripeka FL to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical
storm conditions expected by tonight or early Wednesday. Hurricane
conditions will also spread well inland across portions of the
Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area by tonight or early Wednesday, and are possible within the
tropical storm watch area by that time. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the hurricane watch area by Wednesday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the
southeast U.S. coast Wednesday night and Thursday.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday...

Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.

Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and southern
Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches.
This rainfall could lead to life threatening flash floods.

Eastern Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3 to 6
inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods.

Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England
coast...1-3 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Michael are affecting the coasts of the
eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico, and will spread to portions of
the northwestern and western Gulf of Mexico coast during the next
day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

TORNADOES: The threat for tornadoes will increase late tonight into
Wednesday over parts of the Florida Panhandle, the northern Florida
Peninsula, and southern Georgia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-09 15:33

WTNT24 KNHC 091442
TCMAT4

HURRICANE MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018
1500 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST OF ALABAMA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA...INCLUDING
TAMPA BAY
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* SUWANEE RIVER FLORIDA TO CHASSAHOWITZKA FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHASSAHOWITZKA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER
* FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION
OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS
IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS
SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM
RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHAEL.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 86.2W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......160NE 130SE 60SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 150SE 150SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 86.2W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 86.1W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 26.7N 86.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 70SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.8N 86.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 30.8N 85.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 30SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 33.0N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 140SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 37.5N 74.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 70SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 90SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 44.0N 56.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 50.0N 38.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 86.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

2018-10-09 12:32

WTNT34 KNHC 091147
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
700 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018

...MICHAEL STRENGTHENING WHILE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 86.1W
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including
Tampa Bay
* Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Fernandina Beach Florida to South Santee River South Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located
near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 86.1 West. Michael is moving
toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A north-
northwestward to northward motion is expected through tonight,
followed by a northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On
the forecast track, the center of Michael will move across the
eastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight. The center of Michael is
expected to move inland over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big
Bend area on Wednesday, and then move northeastward across the
southeastern United States Wednesday night and Thursday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Michael is
forecast to be a major hurricane at landfall in Florida. Weakening
is expected after landfall as Michael moves through the southeastern
United States.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km). NOAA buoy 42003 recently reported 1-minute mean
winds of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a wind gust of 54 mph (87 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the NOAA aircraft is
968 mb (28.58 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass FL to Cedar Key FL...8-12 ft
Cedar Key FL to Crystal River FL...6-8 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Indian Pass FL...6-9 ft
Crystal River FL to Anclote River FL...4-6 ft
Anclote River to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical
storm conditions expected by tonight or early Wednesday. Hurricane
conditions will also spread well inland across portions of the
Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area by tonight or early Wednesday, and are possible within the
tropical storm watch area by that time. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the hurricane watch area by Wednesday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the
southeast U.S. coast Wednesday night and Thursday.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday...

Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.

Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and southern
Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches.
This rainfall could lead to life threatening flash floods.

Eastern Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3 to 6
inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods.

Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England
coast...1-3 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Michael are beginning to affect the
coasts of the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico. These swells
will spread to portions of the northwestern and western Gulf of
Mexico coast during the next day or so. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: The threat for tornadoes will increase late tonight into
Wednesday over parts of the Florida Panhandle, the northern Florida
Peninsula, and southern Georgia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-09 09:34

WTNT44 KNHC 090857
TCDAT4

Hurricane Michael Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
400 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft a few
hours ago indicate that Michael's strengthening has paused, with
the maximum winds near 80 kt and a central pressure near 973 mb.
The aircraft also reported that the eyewall had become less
organized, which may be due to some dry air entrainment and shear.
The latest satellite imagery shows the convective banding becoming
better defined, and the next aircraft will shortly arrive in the
hurricane to provide better information on whether intensification
has resumed.

The initial motion is now 345/10. There is little change in either
the forecast philosophy from the previous advisory, as Michael
expected to remain caught between a deep-layer ridge centered off of
the U.S. east coast and a highly amplitude mid-latitude trough over
the U.S. Plains states and northern Mexico. This pattern should
steer the hurricane north-northwestward to northward for the next 24
h or so, followed by a turn to the northeast as Michael recurves
into the westerlies. Only minor tweaks have been made to the
previous forecast track, with Michael expected to make landfall in
the Florida Panhandle on Wednesday and cross the southeastern United
States Wednesday night and Thursday.

The large-scale models continue to forecast a decrease in the shear
later today, and thus Michael is forecast to intensify further
before landfall. The new intensity forecast follows the previous
forecast in showing Michael as a category 3 hurricane at landfall.
The cyclone should weaken significantly as it crosses the
southeastern United States, then it should re-intensify over the
western Atlantic as it undergoes extratropical transition between
72-96 h.

It should be noted that the location and magnitude of peak storm
surge flooding is very sensitive to small changes in the track,
intensity, and structure of the hurricane. Since there is still
uncertainty in all of these parameters, the official NHC storm surge
forecast and watch/warning areas includes various plausible
scenarios. Regardless of the eventual track and intensity of
Michael, life-threatening storm surge inundation is expected along
portions of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend/Nature Coast, and the
storm surge watch has been upgraded to a storm surge warning for
parts of this area.

The NOAA G-IV aircraft is currently conducting a synoptic
surveillance mission over the Gulf of Mexico and dropsondes from
that mission will be assimilated into the 1200 UTC numerical models
runs.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the
coasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, and a
storm surge warning is in effect for these areas. Residents in these
areas should follow all advice given by their local officials.

2. A hurricane warning has been issued for portions of the Florida
Gulf Coast, and everyone in these areas should prepare for
life-threatening winds associated with the core of Michael.
Damaging winds will also extend inland across portions of the
Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as
Michael moves inland.

3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash
flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into
portions of Georgia and South Carolina.

4. Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of western
Cuba for a few more hours.

5. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding
over portions of western Cuba during the next day or so.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 24.1N 85.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 25.7N 86.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 27.9N 86.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 29.9N 85.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 32.3N 83.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
72H 12/0600Z 36.5N 75.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 13/0600Z 42.5N 60.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/0600Z 49.0N 40.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-10-09 09:34

WTNT34 KNHC 090857
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
400 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018

...MICHAEL MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 85.9W
ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect along the southeastern
coast of the United States from Fernandina Beach, Florida to South
Santee River, South Carolina.

The Government of Cuba has changed the Hurricane Warning for the
province of Pinar del Rio to a Tropical Storm Warning and has
discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the Isle of Youth.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including
Tampa Bay
* Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida
* The Cuban province of Pinar del Rio

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Fernandina Beach, Florida to South Santee River, South Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Michael was
located near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 85.9 West. Michael is
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
north-northwestward to northward motion is expected through tonight,
followed by a northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On
the forecast track, the center of Michael will continue to move over
the southern Gulf of Mexico this morning, then move across the
eastern Gulf of Mexico later today and tonight. The center of
Michael is expected to move inland over the Florida Panhandle or
Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then move northeastward
across the southeastern United States Wednesday night and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected, and Michael is forecast to be a
major hurricane at landfall in Florida. Weakening is expected
after landfall as Michael moves through the southeastern United
States.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km). NOAA buoy 42003 recently reported 1-minute mean winds of
40 mph (65 km/h) and a wind gust of 47 mph (76 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass FL to Cedar Key FL...8-12 ft
Cedar Key FL to Crystal River FL...6-8 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Indian Pass FL...6-9 ft
Crystal River FL to Anclote River FL...4-6 ft
Anclote River to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft

WIND: Tropical storm conditions conditions will continue over
portions of the far western Cuban province of Pinar del Rio for the
next few hours.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning
area along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions expected by tonight or early Wednesday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by
tonight or early Wednesday, and are possible within the tropical
storm watch area by that time. Hurricane conditions are possible
within the hurricane watch area by Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday...

Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.

Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and southern
Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches.
This rainfall could lead to life threatening flash floods.

Eastern Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3 to 6
inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods.

Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England
coast...1-3 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Michael are affecting the south coast of
Cuba and the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Swells are
expected to begin affecting the coast of the eastern and northern
Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: The threat for tornadoes will increase late tonight into
Wednesday over parts of the Florida Panhandle, the northern Florida
Peninsula, and southern Georgia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-10-09 09:34

WTNT24 KNHC 090856
TCMAT4

HURRICANE MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018
0900 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA TO SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA...INCLUDING
TAMPA BAY
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* SUWANEE RIVER FLORIDA TO CHASSAHOWITZKA FLORIDA
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHASSAHOWITZKA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER
* FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION
OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS
IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS
SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM
RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHAEL.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 85.9W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......170NE 130SE 70SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 120SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 85.9W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 85.7W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 25.7N 86.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 130SE 80SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.9N 86.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 29.9N 85.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 32.3N 83.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 140SE 80SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 36.5N 75.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 140SE 90SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 42.5N 60.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 49.0N 40.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.1N 85.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

2018-10-09 06:33

WTNT34 KNHC 090551
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
100 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018

...MICHAEL HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRENGTH DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.6N 85.7W
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including
Tampa Bay
* Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida
* The Cuban province of Pinar del Rio

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida
* The Cuban province of the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Michael was
located by and Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near
latitude 23.6 North, longitude 85.7 West. Michael is moving
toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward to
north-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is
expected through tonight, followed by a northeastward motion on
Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
Michael will continue to move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico
this morning, then move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico later
today and tonight. The center of Michael is expected to move inland
over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday,
and then move northeastward across the southeastern United States
Wednesday night and Thursday.

Reports from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day
or so, and Michael is expected to become a major hurricane by
Tuesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane
Hunter aircraft data is 973 mb (28.73 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass FL to Cedar Key FL...8-12 ft
Cedar Key FL to Crystal River FL...6-8 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Indian Pass FL...6-9 ft
Crystal River FL to Anclote River FL...4-6 ft
Anclote River to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft

WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue over portions of the far
western Cuban province of Pinar del Rio for the next few hours.
Tropical storm conditions are expected across the remainder of the
warning areas in Cuba through tonight.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning
area along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions expected by tonight or early Wednesday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by
tonight or early Wednesday, and are possible within the tropical
storm watch area by that time. Hurricane conditions are possible
within the hurricane watch area by Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday...

Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.

Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, Georgia and South
Carolina... 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches. This rainfall could lead to life threatening flash floods.

Florida Peninsula, Florida Keys, North Carolina, portions of the
Mid-Atlantic States, and the southern New England coast...2 to 4
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall
could lead to life-threatening flash floods.

Yucatan Peninsula...Additional rainfall less than 1 inch.

SURF: Swells generated by Michael are affecting the south coast of
Cuba and the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Swells are
expected to begin affecting the coast of the eastern and northern
Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-10-09 03:35

WTNT44 KNHC 090257
TCDAT4

Hurricane Michael Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018

Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft this
evening indicate that Michael has continued to strengthen...despite
westerly vertical shear of about 20 kt, which is most unusual. The
maximum 8000-ft flight-level winds measured by NOAA so far has
been 102 kt and maximum SFMR surface wind speed was 78 kt. The
central pressure measured by the two aircraft has been fluctuating
between 970 mb and 974 mb, which is likely due to small mesovortices
rotating around inside the fairly large 35-nmi-wide eye. Given the
aforementioned wind data and the possibility of locally enhanced
winds due to the mesovortices, the initial intensity has only been
increased to 80 kt rather than 85 kt, which the NOAA flight-level
wind data would typically support.

The initial motion estimate is 350/11 kt. The steering flow pattern
isn't forecast to change much, if at all, for the next 36-48 hours,
with Michael expected to remain caught between a deep-layer ridge
centered off of the U.S. east coast and a highly amplitude
mid-latitude trough over the U.S. Plains states and northern Mexico.
The combined deep-layer southerly flow should keep the hurricane
moving northward to north-northwestward for the next 36 hours or so.
Shortly thereafter and just prior to landfall, the approaching
mid-latitude trough is expected to turn Michael toward the
north-northeast or northeast. By 48 hours and beyond, significant
acceleration toward the northeast ahead of the trough is forecast to
continue through the 120-h period, with Michael emerging off of the
U.S. mid-Atlantic coast around 96 hours. The new NHC forecast track
was nudged slightly to the east of the previous track through 36 h,
based on the more eastward initial position and a forward motion
that is still to the right or east of short term motion in the model
guidance, but is still near the consensus models TVCN, TVCX, and
NOAA-HCCA. By 48 hours and beyond, the official track is close to
the previous advisory track.

Michael's steady intensification over the past 48 hours in the face
of 20-kt westerly shear defies traditional logic. Either the shear
calculations are unrepresentative or Michael has become more
inertially stable due to its large eye and large outer wind field,
making it more shear resistant. Having said that, all of the model
guidance calls for the shear to decrease to around 10 kt or less by
36 hours, which argues for at least steady intensification during
that time given that Michael will be moving over warm SSTs of
28.5C-29C, which are about 1-2 deg C above average for this time of
the year. Less-than-normal weakening after landfall in the 48-
to 96-h period is expected due to Michael's fast forward speed of
20-30 kt. Re-strengthening as an extratropical low over water on
days 4 and 5 is forecast due to baroclinic interaction with a
frontal system and the cyclone being back over warm Atlantic waters.
The official intensity forecast is a little higher than the
consensus models IVCN and HCCA, and is similar to the previous
advisory and the FSSE model.

It should be noted that the location and magnitude of peak storm
surge flooding is very sensitive to small changes in the track,
intensity, and structure of the hurricane. Since there is still
uncertainty in all of these parameters, the official NHC storm surge
forecast and watch/warning areas includes various plausible
scenarios. Regardless of the eventual track and intensity of
Michael, life-threatening storm surge inundation is expected along
portions of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend/Nature Coast, and the
storm surge watch has been upgraded to a storm surge warning for
parts of this area.

The NOAA G-IV aircraft is currently conducting a synoptic
surveillance mission over the Gulf of Mexico and dropsondes from
that mission will be assimilated into the 0000 UTC numerical models
runs.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the
coasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, and a
storm surge warning is in effect for these areas. Residents in these
areas should follow all advice given by their local officials.

2. A hurricane warning has been issued for portions of the Florida
Gulf Coast, and everyone in these areas should prepare for
life-threatening winds associated with the core of Michael.
Damaging winds will also extend inland across portions of the
Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as
Michael moves inland.

3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash
flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into
portions of Georgia and South Carolina.

4. Hurricane conditions will continue in portions of western Cuba
through this evening, where a hurricane warning is in effect.

5. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding
over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula
of Mexico during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 23.2N 85.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 24.7N 85.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 26.8N 86.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 29.1N 85.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 31.4N 84.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
72H 12/0000Z 35.9N 77.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 13/0000Z 41.5N 63.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/0000Z 47.8N 46.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-09 03:35

WTNT34 KNHC 090255
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018

...MICHAEL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 85.3W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the northeastern Yucatan peninsula and Cozumel.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including
Tampa Bay
* Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida
* The Cuban province of Pinar del Rio

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida
* The Cuban province of the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane
Michael was located by NOAA and Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 85.3 West. Michael is
moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward to
north-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is
expected through Tuesday night, followed by a northeastward motion
on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
Michael will continue to move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico
tonight, then move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday and
Tuesday night. The center of Michael is expected to move inland over
the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and
then move northeastward across the southeastern United States
Wednesday night and Thursday.

Reports from the two reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next
day or so, and Michael is expected to become a major hurricane by
Tuesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the two aircraft
was 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass FL to Cedar Key FL...8-12 ft
Cedar Key FL to Crystal River FL...6-8 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Indian Pass FL...6-9 ft
Crystal River FL to Anclote River FL...4-6 ft
Anclote River to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft

WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue over portions of the far
western Cuban province of Pinar del Rio through this evening.
Tropical storm conditions are expected across the remainder of the
warning areas in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula through tonight.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning
area along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions expected by Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by
Tuesday night or early Wednesday, and are possible within the
tropical storm watch area by that time. Hurricane conditions
are possible within the hurricane watch area by Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday...

Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.

Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, Georgia and South
Carolina... 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches. This rainfall could lead to life threatening flash floods.

Florida Peninsula, Florida Keys, North Carolina, portions of the
Mid-Atlantic States, and the southern New England coast...2 to 4
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall
could lead to life-threatening flash floods.

Yucatan Peninsula...Additional rainfall less than 1 inch.

SURF: Swells generated by Michael are affecting the south coast of
Cuba and the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Swells are
expected to begin affecting the coast of the eastern and northern
Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-09 03:35

WTNT24 KNHC 090254
TCMAT4

HURRICANE MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018
0300 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND COZUMEL.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA... INCLUDING
TAMPA BAY
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* SUWANEE RIVER FLORIDA TO CHASSAHOWITZKA FLORIDA
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHASSAHOWITZKA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA... INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION
OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS
IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS
SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM
RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHAEL.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 85.3W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 80SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 90SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 85.3W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 85.2W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.7N 85.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 26.8N 86.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 29.1N 85.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 31.4N 84.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 140SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 35.9N 77.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 140SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 41.5N 63.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 47.8N 46.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 85.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

2018-10-09 00:32

WTNT34 KNHC 082355
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
700 PM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS MICHAEL A LITTLE STRONGER...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 85.2W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NNW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 485 MI...785 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including
Tampa Bay
* Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida
* The Cuban province of Pinar del Rio

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida
* The Cuban province of the Isle of Youth
* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Michael
was located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 22.7
North, longitude 85.2 West. Michael is moving toward the north near
12 mph (19 km/h). A northward to north-northwestward motion at a
slightly faster forward speed is expected through Tuesday night,
followed by a northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On
the forecast track, the center of Michael will move over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight, then move across the
eastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday and Tuesday night. The center of
Michael is expected to move inland over the Florida Panhandle or
Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then move northeastward
across the southeastern United States Wednesday night and Thursday.

Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day
or so, and Michael is forecast to become a major hurricane by
Tuesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 970 mb (28.64 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass FL to Cedar Key FL...8-12 ft
Cedar Key FL to Crystal River FL...6-8 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Indian Pass FL...6-9 ft
Crystal River FL to Anclote River FL...4-6 ft
Anclote River to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft

WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue over portions of the far
western Cuban province of Pinar del Rio through this evening.
Tropical storm conditions are expected across the remainder of the
warning areas in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula through tonight.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning
area along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions expected by Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by
Tuesday night or early Wednesday, and are possible within the
tropical storm watch area by that time. Hurricane conditions
are possible within the hurricane watch area by Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday...

Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.

Florida Panhandle and Big Bend across Georgia into South Carolina...
4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This
rainfall could lead to life threatening flash floods.

Florida Peninsula, Florida Keys, North Carolina, portions of the
Mid-Atlantic States, and the southern New England coast...2 to 4
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall
could lead to life-threatening flash floods.

Yucatan Peninsula...1 to 2 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Michael are affecting the south coast of
Cuba and the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Swells are
expected to begin affecting the coast of the eastern and northern
Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-08 21:33

WTNT44 KNHC 082041
TCDAT4

Hurricane Michael Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018

Data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft that was
in the storm until about 1700 UTC continued to indicate that the
hurricane was deepening. The pressure had fallen to 978 mb on
the final fix, but the aircraft was still not able to sample the
northeastern portion of the storm due to the close proximity of
land. The initial intensity has been increased to 70 kt based on a
blend of Dvorak satellite classifications and the continued
deepening that was observed.

The upper-level outflow has gradually improved over Michael but it
is still somewhat restricted over the western portion of the storm.
There has been no significant change to the intensity forecast
thinking. The moderate shear that has been affecting the cyclone is
not expected to prevent strengthening while Michael moves over the
warm waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Although the statistical
guidance is somewhat lower this cycle, the regional hurricane and
global models still favor steady to rapid strengthening, and the NHC
forecast is closest to the Florida State Superensemble and the HFIP
corrected consensus model.

Aircraft and satellite fixes show that Michael has been wobbling as
it moves generally northward. Smoothing through the wobbles gives a
long-term initial motion estimate of 355/8 kt. Michael is forecast
to move north-northwestward to northward between a deep-layer ridge
over the western Atlantic and a trough over the west-central United
States. The trough is forecast move eastward, causing Michael to
turn northeastward in 36 to 48 hours, and the cyclone should then
accelerate northeastward as it enters the mid-latitude westerly
flow. The 1200 UTC dynamical models have converged on both the
track and forward speed through the first 48 to 72 hours. The
updated NHC track has been nudged slightly westward through 48 hours
to be closer to the latest consensus aids.

It should be noted that the location and magnitude of peak storm
surge flooding is very sensitive to small changes in the track,
intensity, and structure of the hurricane. Since there is still
uncertainty in all of these parameters, the official NHC storm surge
forecast and watch/warning areas includes various plausible
scenarios. Regardless of the eventual track and intensity of
Michael, life-threatening storm surge inundation is expected along
portions of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend/Nature Coast, and the
storm surge watch has been upgraded to a storm surge warning for
parts of this area.

The NOAA G-IV aircraft is conducting a synoptic surveillance mission
over the Gulf of Mexico and dropsondes from that mission will be
assimilated into the 0000 UTC numerical models runs.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the
coasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, and a
storm surge warning is in effect for these areas. Residents in these
areas should follow all advice given by their local officials.

2. A hurricane warning has been issued for portions of the Florida
Gulf Coast, and everyone in these areas should prepare for
life-threatening winds associated with the core of Michael.
Damaging winds will also extend inland across portions of the
Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as
Michael moves inland.

3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash
flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into
portions of Georgia and South Carolina.

4. Hurricane conditions will continue in portions of western Cuba
through this evening, where a hurricane warning is in effect.

5. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding
over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula
of Mexico during the next couple of days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 22.2N 85.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 23.7N 85.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 25.7N 86.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 27.9N 86.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 30.2N 85.8W 100 KT 115 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
72H 11/1800Z 34.5N 80.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 12/1800Z 39.8N 68.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/1800Z 46.2N 50.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-08 21:33

WTNT34 KNHC 082041
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018

...MICHAEL BRINGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO
WESTERN CUBA...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 85.2W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM NW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the Gulf Coast of Florida
from the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Anclote River.

The Storm Surge Watch has been extended west of Navarre Florida to
the Alabama/Florida border.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the Gulf Coast of Florida
from the Alabama/Florida border eastward to Suwannee River.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued from the Alabama/Florida border
westward to the Mississippi/Alabama border.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from the Alabama/Florida
border westward to the Mississippi/Alabama border and from Suwannee
River Florida southward to Chassahowitzka Florida.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Mississippi/Alabama
border westward to the Mouth of the Pearl River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including
Tampa Bay
* Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida
* The Cuban province of Pinar del Rio

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida
* The Cuban province of the Isle of Youth
* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Michael was
located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 85.2 West. Michael is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northward to
north-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is
expected through Tuesday night, followed by a northeastward motion
on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
Michael will move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico this evening,
then move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday and Tuesday
night. The center of Michael is expected to move inland over the
Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then
move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday
night and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during
the next day or so, and Michael is forecast to become a major
hurricane by Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km). A wind gust to 75 mph (120 km/h) was reported at an
observing site in Isabel Rubio in the Cuban province of Pinar del
Rio earlier this afternoon.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass FL to Cedar Key FL...8-12 ft
Cedar Key FL to Crystal River FL...6-8 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Indian Pass FL...5-8 ft
Crystal River FL to Anclote River FL...4-6 ft
Anclote River to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft

WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue over portions of the
far western Cuban province of Pinar del Rio through this evening.
Tropical storm conditions are expected across the remainder of the
warning areas in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula through tonight.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning
area along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions expected by Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by
Tuesday night or early Wednesday, and are possible within the
tropical storm watch area by that time. Hurricane conditions
are possible within the hurricane watch area by Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday...

Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.

Florida Panhandle and Big Bend across Georgia into South Carolina...
4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This
rainfall could lead to life threatening flash floods.

Florida Peninsula, Florida Keys, North Carolina, portions of the
Mid-Atlantic States, and the southern New England coast...2 to 4
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall
could lead to life-threatening flash floods.

Yucatan Peninsula...1 to 2 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Michael are affecting the south coast of
Cuba and the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Swells are
expected to begin affecting the coast of the eastern and northern
Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-08 21:33

WTNT24 KNHC 082039
TCMAT4

HURRICANE MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018
2100 UTC MON OCT 08 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE TO ANCLOTE RIVER.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED WEST OF NAVARRE FLORIDA TO
THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER.

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO SUWANNEE RIVER.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER
WESTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER WESTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER AND FROM SUWANNEE
RIVER FLORIDA SOUTHWARD TO CHASSAHOWITZKA FLORIDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA
BORDER WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANCLOTE RIVER FLORIDA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA...INCLUDING
TAMPA BAY
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* SUWANEE RIVER FLORIDA TO CHASSAHOWITZKA FLORIDA
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE...INCLUDING
COZUMEL

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHASSAHOWITZKA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION
OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE
WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A
LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS
SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM
RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHAEL.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 85.2W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 150SE 80SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 150SE 60SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 85.2W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 85.1W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.7N 85.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 25.7N 86.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.9N 86.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 30.2N 85.8W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 140SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 34.5N 80.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 140SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 39.8N 68.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 46.2N 50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N 85.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

2018-10-08 18:32

WTNT34 KNHC 081740
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 08 2018

...CENTER OF MICHAEL PASSING NEAR THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
DANGEROUS WINDS INCREASING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 85.1W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM NE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban province of Pinar del Rio

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban province of the Isle of Youth
* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Navarre Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama-Florida border to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Suwannee River to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
* Alabama-Florida border to the Mississippi-Alabama border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Michael was
located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 85.1 West. Michael is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northward to
north-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is
expected through Tuesday night, followed by a northeastward motion
on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
Michael will pass near the western tip of Cuba within the next
couple of hours and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by
tonight. Michael will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday
and Tuesday night, is expected to move inland over the Florida
Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then move
northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday night
and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day
or so, and Michael is forecast to become a major hurricane by
Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass FL to Crystal River FL...8-12 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Indian Pass FL...5-8 ft
Crystal River FL to Anclote River FL...4-6 ft
Anclote River to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Navarre FL to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft

WIND: Hurricane conditions will spread across the far western part
of the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio this afternoon and evening.
Tropical storm conditions are expected across the remainder of the
warning areas in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula later today.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions possible by Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area
by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through the weekend...

Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.

Florida Panhandle and Big Bend into the Carolinas...4 to 8
inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall
could lead to life threatening flash floods.

Florida Peninsula, Florida Keys, portions of the Mid-Atlantic
States, and the southern New England coast...2 to 4 inches with
local amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-
threatening flash floods.

Yucatan Peninsula...1 to 2 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Michael are affecting the south coast of
Cuba and the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Swells are
expected to begin affecting the coast of the eastern and northern
Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-08 15:34

WTNT44 KNHC 081438
TCDAT4

Hurricane Michael Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 08 2018

The satellite presentation of Michael has continued to improve
overnight and this morning, with the center well embedded within an
area of cold cloud tops. An eye is becoming apparent in visible
imagery, and this was also confirmed by a recent SSMIS microwave
overpass and the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft. The
aircraft reported a minimum pressure around 982 mb during the most
recent pass through the center, and also found flight-level
winds that support upgrading Michael to a a 65-kt hurricane for this
advisory.

Although the outflow is still somewhat restricted over the western
portion of the circulation, it has been expanding in that
direction. The global models suggest that the shear will relax a
little more while the hurricane moves over the very warm waters of
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Now that Michael has developed an
inner core, steady to rapid strengthening is predicted during the
next 24 to 36 hours. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index and
DTOPS give a 55-60 percent chance of rapid intensification during
the next 24 hours. The updated NHC forecast is near the upper-end
of the guidance and calls for rapid strengthening over the next 24
hours, and brings Michael to major hurricane status. After
that time, most of the intensity guidance slows down the rate of
intensification, perhaps due to a slight increase in southwesterly
shear. Weakening is expected after landfall, but the forecast track
keeps a portion of the circulation over water along the southeast
U.S. coast, so Michael is predicted to remain a tropical storm
through 72 hours. The system should become a powerful extratropical
low off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast in about 4 days.

Reconnaissance aircraft fixes indicate that Michael is still moving
a little east of due north. The hurricane should move northward or
north-northwestward over the next couple of days while the storm
crosses the eastern Gulf of Mexico. By 48 hours, Michael should
turn northeastward ahead of a trough moving into the central
United States. The cross-track spread in the guidance has
decreased since yesterday, but there continue to be differences in
how fast Michael moves northward over the Gulf of Mexico. The HWRF
and GFS remain among the faster models, while the ECMWF is still
much slower. The NHC track is along the eastern side of the
guidance through 24 hours due to the recent motion of the storm,
and is remains near the various consensus aids after that time. The
post-tropical portion of the track and intensity forecast is based
on guidance provided by the Ocean Prediction Center.

Key Messages:

1. Michael is forecast to be a dangerous major hurricane when it
reaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and life-
threatening storm surge is possible along portions of the Florida
Gulf Coast regardless of the storm's exact track or intensity.
Residents in the storm surge and hurricane watch areas should follow
any advice given by local officials, as storm surge and hurricane
warnings will likely be issued later today.

2. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash
flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into
portions of the Carolinas through Thursday.

3. Hurricane conditions will spread over portions of western Cuba
this afternoon, where a hurricane warning is now in effect.
Tropical storm conditions are expected over the northeastern Yucatan
Peninsula and the Isle of Youth today.

4. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding
over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula
of Mexico during the next couple of days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 21.2N 84.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 22.6N 85.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 24.4N 85.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 26.4N 86.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 28.6N 86.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 33.0N 82.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 12/1200Z 37.8N 73.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/1200Z 42.8N 59.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-08 15:34

WTNT34 KNHC 081438
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 08 2018

...MICHAEL BECOMES A HURRICANE AND CONTINUED STRENGTHENING
EXPECTED...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
DANGEROUS WINDS INCREASING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 84.9W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM ENE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban province of Pinar del Rio

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban province of the Isle of Youth
* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Navarre Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama-Florida border to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Suwannee River to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
* Alabama-Florida border to the Mississippi-Alabama border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Michael was
located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 84.9 West. Michael is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northward motion at
a slightly faster forward speed is expected through Tuesday night,
followed by a northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Michael will move northward near the
western tip of Cuba this afternoon and into the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico by tonight. Michael will move across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico Tuesday and Tuesday night, and is expected to move inland
over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday,
and then move northeastward across the southeastern United States
Wednesday night and Thursday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120
km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast
during the next day or so, and Michael is forecast to become a major
hurricane by Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance data is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Crystal River...8-12 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass...5-8 ft
Crystal River to Anclote River...4-6 ft
Anclote River to Anna Maria Island including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Navarre to Okaloosa/Walton County Line...2-4 ft

WIND: Hurricane conditions will spread across the far western part
of the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio this afternoon and evening.
Tropical storm conditions are expected across the remainder of the
warning areas in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula later today.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions possible by Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area
by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through the weekend...

Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.

Florida Panhandle and Big Bend into the Carolinas...4 to 8
inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall
could lead to life threatening flash floods.

Florida Peninsula, Florida Keys, portions of the Mid-Atlantic
States, and the southern New England coast...2 to 4 inches with
local amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-
threatening flash floods.

Yucatan Peninsula...1 to 2 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Michael are affecting the south coast of
Cuba and the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Swells are
expected to begin affecting the coast of the eastern and northern
Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-08 15:34

WTNT24 KNHC 081437
TCMAT4

HURRICANE MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018
1500 UTC MON OCT 08 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING
COZUMEL

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NAVARRE FLORIDA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA... INCLUDING TAMPA
BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SUWANNEE RIVER TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA... INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
* ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHAEL.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 84.9W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE 135SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 84.9W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 85.1W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.6N 85.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.4N 85.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 26.4N 86.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.6N 86.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 33.0N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 140SE 60SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 37.8N 73.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 42.8N 59.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 84.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

2018-10-08 12:33

WTNT34 KNHC 081156
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
700 AM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018

...MICHAEL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE VERY SOON...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 85.1W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM ENE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban province of Pinar del Rio

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban province of the Isle of Youth
* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Navarre Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama-Florida border to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Suwannee River to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
* Alabama-Florida border to the Mississippi-Alabama border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was
located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 85.1 West. Michael is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northward motion
at a slightly faster forward speed is expected through Tuesday
night, followed by a northeastward motion on Wednesday and
Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move
northward across the Yucatan Channel today, and then across the
eastern Gulf of Mexico this evening through Wednesday. Michael is
expected to move inland over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big
Bend area on Wednesday, and then move northeastward across the
southeastern United States Wednesday night and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Michael is
expected to become a hurricane later today. Michael is forecast to
be near or at major hurricane strength when it reaches the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Crystal River...7-11 ft
Crystal River to Anclote River...4-6 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass...4-7 ft
Anclote River to Anna Maria Island including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Navarre to Okaloosa/Walton County Line...2-4 ft

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected across the far western part
of the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio later today. Tropical storm
conditions are expected across the remainder of the warning areas
in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula later today.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
along the U.S. Gulf coast by Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions possible by Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area
by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Wednesday night...

Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.

Florida Panhandle and Big Bend into southern Georgia...4 to 8
inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall
may lead to life threatening flash floods.

Florida Keys...2 to 4 inches.

Yucatan Peninsula...1 to 2 inches.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-08 09:32

WTNT44 KNHC 080858
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Michael Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
400 AM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018

Michael has become better organized this morning, with the deep
convection migrating westward on top of the low-level center and
upper-level outflow beginning to increase within the western
semicircle. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft made
several passes through the system during the past few hours, and
somewhat surprisingly, found that the central pressure has fallen
to about 983 mb and maximum winds have increased to near 60 kt.
This increase in intensity indicates that despite the shear which
has been affecting Michael, the system has, by definition, rapidly
intensified during the past 24 hours.

With the increase in the initial wind speeds, the official
intensity forecast is higher than in the previous forecast.
Decreasing vertical shear and very warm sea surface temperatures
are expected to support continued strengthening, and due to the
favorable conditions, the NHC intensity forecast follows a blend of
the IVCN consensus and the HCCA model. This new official forecast
brings the intensity to just below major hurricane strength in 48
hours, and since the storm will still be over water for a time
between 48 and 72 hours, there is a real possibility that Michael
will strengthen to a major hurricane before landfall. Weakening is
expected after landfall, but the system will likely maintain
tropical storm strength after day 4 when it moves off the east
coast of the United States. Michael should then become an
extratropical low by day 5.

The reconnaissance fixes indicate that Michael's center is moving
northward, or 360 degrees at 6 kt. A general northward motion with
some increase in forward speed is expected during the next 48 hours
as Michael enters the southerly flow between high pressure over the
western Atlantic and a deep-layer trough over the western and
central United States. After 48 hours, Michael is expected to turn
northeastward toward and across the southeastern United States,
exiting over the western Atlantic between days 4 and 5. Nearly all
of the track models have shifted westward after 24 hours, which
left the previous forecast near the eastern edge of the guidance
envelope. Due to this shift, the new NHC track forecast has also
been adjusted westward close to the consensus aids. Overall the
track guidance is in fairly good agreement up until landfall along
the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend, which has yielded a
fairly confident track forecast.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected over portions of western Cuba,
where a hurricane warning is now in effect. Tropical storm
conditions are expected over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula and
the Isle of Youth today.

2. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding
over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula
of Mexico during the next couple of days.

3. Michael is forecast to be a hurricane, and possibly a major
hurricane, when it reaches the northeastern Gulf Coast by mid-week,
and storm surge and hurricane watches are now in effect for
portions of the area. Some areas along the Florida Gulf Coast are
especially vulnerable to storm surge, regardless of the storm's
exact track or intensity. Residents in the watch areas should
monitor the progress of this system and follow any advice given by
local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 20.6N 85.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 21.7N 85.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 23.5N 86.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 25.2N 86.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 27.2N 86.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 31.2N 84.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
96H 12/0600Z 35.5N 77.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 13/0600Z 40.5N 64.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-10-08 09:32

WTNT34 KNHC 080856
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Michael Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
400 AM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018

...MICHAEL ALMOST A HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG
BEND...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 85.5W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
province of Pinar del Rio.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Navarre Florida to Anna
Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued from the Alabama-Florida border
eastward to the Suwanee River Florida.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Suwanee River to
Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay. A Tropical Storm
Watch has also been issued from the Alabama-Florida border to the
Mississippi-Alabama border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban province of Pinar del Rio

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban province of the Isle of Youth
* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Navarre Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama-Florida border to Suwanee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Suwanee River to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
* Alabama-Florida border to the Mississippi-Alabama border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 20.6 North, longitude 85.5 West. Michael is moving toward
the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northward motion at a slightly
faster forward speed is expected through Tuesday night, followed by
a northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast
track, the center of Michael will move northward across the Yucatan
Channel later today, and then across the eastern Gulf of Mexico
this evening through Wednesday. Michael is expected to move inland
over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday,
and then move northeastward across the southeastern United States
Wednesday night and Thursday.

Data from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Michael is
expected to become a hurricane later today. Michael is forecast to
be near or at major hurricane strength when it reaches the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 983 mb (29.03
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Crystal River...7-11 ft
Crystal River to Anclote River...4-6 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass...4-7 ft
Anclote River to Anna Maria Island including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Navarre to Okaloosa/Walton County Line...2-4 ft

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected across the far western part
of the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio later today. Tropical storm
conditions are expected across the remainder of the warning areas
in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula later today.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
along the U.S. Gulf coast by Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions possible by Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area
by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Wednesday night...

Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.

Florida Panhandle and Big Bend into southern Georgia...4 to 8
inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall
may lead to life threatening flash floods.

Florida Keys...2 to 4 inches.

Yucatan Peninsula...1 to 2 inches.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-10-08 09:32

WTNT24 KNHC 080855
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018
0900 UTC MON OCT 08 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO.

A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NAVARRE FLORIDA TO ANNA
MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA... INCLUDING TAMPA BAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER
EASTWARD TO THE SUWANEE RIVER FLORIDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE SUWANEE RIVER TO
ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA... INCLUDING TAMPA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FROM THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO THE
MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING
COZUMEL

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NAVARRE FLORIDA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA... INCLUDING TAMPA
BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO SUWANEE RIVER FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SUWANEE RIVER TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA... INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
* ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHAEL.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 85.5W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 150SE 90SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE 120SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 85.5W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 85.5W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.7N 85.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.5N 86.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 25.2N 86.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.2N 86.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 31.2N 84.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 35.5N 77.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 40.5N 64.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 85.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

2018-10-08 06:34

WTNT34 KNHC 080543
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
100 AM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018

...CENTER OF MICHAEL PASSING TO THE EAST OF COZUMEL...
...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 85.5W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth
* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 hours.

Interests along the northeastern and central U.S. Gulf coast should
monitor the progress of Michael. A hurricane watch will likely be
required for a portion of this area today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 20.1 North, longitude 85.5 West. Michael is moving toward
the north near 5 mph (7 km/h). A general northward motion with some
increase in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On
the forecast track, the center of Michael will move over the Yucatan
Channel or extreme western Cuba today, cross the eastern Gulf of
Mexico later today through Tuesday night, and approach the United
States northeastern Gulf coast on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days,
and Michael is forecast to become a hurricane tonight or on
Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is
994 mb (29.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely beginning to spread
across portions of the Cuban coast within the warning area.
Tropical storm conditions are also very close to the coast of
Mexico within the warning area.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 7 inches over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the
Yucatan Peninsula and Belize through Tuesday. Isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba. This rainfall
could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in areas
of mountainous terrain.

Elsewhere, outer rain bands from Michael are expected to produce
total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the Florida Keys
through Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-10-08 03:32

WTNT44 KNHC 080257
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Michael Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

On the last outbound leg to the north, the Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft measured a peak 925-mb flight-level wind of
60 kt and an SFMR surface wind of 53 kt in very light rain. Since
that time, deep convection has developed in the same area where
those peak wind values were measured, so the initial intensity has
been increased to a conservative 50 kt. Another recon aircraft is
scheduled to investigate Michael around 0600 UTC.

The initial motion estimate is northward, or 005/03 kt based on the
recon and microwave satellite data. The bulk of the forecast
rationale remains unchanged, although there remains some notable
differences between the models that will ultimately determine where
and when Michael will make landfall in about 72 h or so. The GFS,
ECMWF, HWRF, and HMON models are tightly clustered along the western
side of the guidance envelope. In contrast, the UKMET model is the
farthest east of the dynamical models. Interestingly, the NOAA
corrected-consensus HCCA model and the simple consensus IVCN models
are close to each other and lie between the aforementioned model
track dichotomy. Given that modest westerly vertical wind shear is
expected to affect Michael throughout the forecast period until
landfall occurs, which should keep the strongest convection,
associated latent heat release, and pressure falls occurring in the
eastern semicircle, the official forecast track leans more toward
the HCCA/IVCN and UKMET model solutions. As a result, a slight
eastward shift to the previous forecast track was made on this
advisory through 48 hours, with little change made to the previous
advisory track on days 3-5.

Michael's overall cloud pattern remains unchanged, with the bulk of
the convection being displaced into the eastern semicircle due to
about 20 kt of westerly shear. However, the inner-core convective
pattern within about 60 nmi of the center has been improving over
the past few hours, and a recent SSMI/S microwave pass reveled a
tightly curved band wrapping about 75 percent around the center.
This better structure combined with very warm sea-surface
temperatures of at least 29 deg C supports at least gradual
strengthening until landfall despite the expected persistent
westerly shear conditions. The HWRF model is the most robust of the
intensity guidance and makes Michael a category 4 hurricane just
prior to landfall. However, all of global models and the HWRF and
HMON regional models are indicating westerly to west-northwesterly
shear keeping the upper-level outflow restricted to the eastern
semicircle, which is not a pattern conducive for the development of
an intense hurricane. Therefore, the HRWF intensity solution has
been discounted, and the new official intensity forecast remains
similar to the previous advisory, which is close to but a little
lower than the IVCN and ICON intensity consensus models. Although
the 72-h forecast shows a decrease to 75 kt, this is due to the
cyclone being inland, and should not be interpreted as being an
indication of a weakening trend prior to landfall.

Key Messages:

1. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding
over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula
of Mexico during the next couple of days.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected tonight over portions of
western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, where tropical
storm warnings are in effect.

3. Michael is forecast to be a hurricane when it reaches the
northeastern Gulf Coast by mid-week, and the risk of dangerous storm
surge, rainfall, and wind impacts continues to increase. In
addition, Michael is expected to affect portions of the Florida Gulf
Coast that are especially vulnerable to storm surge, regardless of
the storm's exact track or intensity. Residents in these areas
should monitor the progress of this system and follow any advice
given by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 20.0N 85.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 21.1N 85.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 22.7N 85.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 24.4N 86.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 26.3N 86.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 30.4N 84.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND ERN FL PANHNDL
96H 12/0000Z 34.9N 78.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
120H 13/0000Z 40.7N 64.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-08 03:32

WTNT34 KNHC 080256
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Michael Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

...MICHAEL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
...THREAT TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST BECOMING MORE LIKELY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 85.4W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth
* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 hours.

Interests along the northeastern and central U.S. Gulf coast should
monitor the progress of Michael. A hurricane watch will likely be
required for a portion of this area on Monday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was
located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 85.4 West. Michael is
moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h). A general northward
motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next
few days. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move
over the Yucatan Channel or extreme western Cuba on Monday, and then
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday through Tuesday night,
and approach the United States northeastern Gulf coast on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days, and
Michael is forecast to become a hurricane Monday night or Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
Cuban coast within the warning area later tonight, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 7 inches over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the
Yucatan Peninsula and Belize through Tuesday. Isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba. This rainfall
could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in areas
of mountainous terrain.

Elsewhere, outer rain bands from Michael are expected to produce
total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the Florida Keys
through Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-08 03:32

WTNT24 KNHC 080256
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018
0300 UTC MON OCT 08 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING
COZUMEL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. GULF COAST SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHAEL. A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 85.4W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 85.4W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 85.4W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.1N 85.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.7N 85.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.4N 86.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 26.3N 86.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 30.4N 84.5W...INLAND ERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 34.9N 78.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 40.7N 64.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 85.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

2018-10-08 00:32

WTNT34 KNHC 072339
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
700 PM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

...MICHAEL A LITTLE STRONGER...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
...THREAT TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST CONTINUES TO INCREASE...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 85.4W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth
* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 hours.

Interests along the northeastern and central U.S. Gulf coast should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was
located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 85.4 West. Michael is
moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h). A general northward
motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next
few days. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move
over the Yucatan Channel on Monday, and then across the eastern Gulf
of Mexico late Monday through Tuesday night, and approach the
United States northeastern Gulf coast on Wednesday.

Recent data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
indicate along with satellite images indicate that maximum sustained
winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days, and
Michael is forecast to become a hurricane Monday night or Tuesday.

Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 170 miles (275 km)
to the northeast and southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
Cuban coast within the warning area by this evening or tonight,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 7 inches over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the
Yucatan Peninsula and Belize through Tuesday. Isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba. This rainfall
could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in areas
of mountainous terrain.

Elsewhere, outer rain bands from Michael are expected to produce
total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the Florida Keys
through Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-07 21:32

WTNT44 KNHC 072101
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Michael Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

Deep convection has continued to develop over the eastern
semicircle of the cyclone, and data from the reconnaissance
aircraft indicate that the center has re-formed farther east,
closer to the convection. The Air Force aircraft has measured peak
925-mb flight-level winds of 56 kt, and believable SFMR winds of
40-45 kt. Based on these data, the initial wind speed has been
increased to 45 kt.

Due to the center reformation, the initial motion estimate is a
highly uncertain 020/3 kt. The overall forecast reasoning has not
changed much since the previous advisory. Although there could be
some additional eastward re-formation of the center, the tropical
storm is forecast to begin moving northward between a ridge over the
western Atlantic and a deep-layer trough over the west-central
United States. A general northward motion at around 10 kt is then
expected to continue during the next 2 to 3 days. After that time,
Michael should turn northeastward ahead of an approaching trough.
The track guidance remains in overall agreement on this scenario,
however, significant along-track (forward speed and timing)
differences remain. The HWRF brings Michael onshore the northern
Gulf coast within 72 hours, while the ECMWF is much slower and has
Michael still offshore at day 4. The new NHC track has been shifted
eastward primarily in the short term due to the more eastward
initial position. The latter portion of the track forecast is again
close to the consensus aids due to the large along- and cross-track
guidance spread.

Michael has strengthened today despite moderate westerly shear. The
shear is forecast to gradually decrease over the next couple of days
while the system moves over warm waters. This should allow for
steady strengthening and most of the intensity models bring Michael
to hurricane strength within the next couple of days. It should
also be noted that the global models also significantly deepen the
storm over the next 72 hours to pressures below 970 mb. The new NHC
intensity forecast calls for Michael to become a hurricane in about
36 hours when the storm reaches the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
Additional strengthening is indicated through 72 hours when the
storm is forecast to be near the northern Gulf coast, and the NHC
forecast is near the higher SHIPS and HWRF models.

Key Messages:

1. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding
over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula
of Mexico during the next couple of days.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected tonight over portions of
western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, where tropical
storm warnings are in effect.

3. Michael is forecast to be a hurricane when it reaches the
northeastern Gulf Coast by mid-week, and the risk of dangerous storm
surge, rainfall, and wind impacts continues to increase. In
addition, Michael is expected to affect portions of the Florida Gulf
Coast that are especially vulnerable to storm surge, regardless of
the storm's exact track or intensity. Residents in these areas
should monitor the progress of this system and follow any advice
given by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 19.2N 85.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 20.1N 85.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 21.5N 85.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 23.2N 86.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 25.0N 86.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 29.2N 85.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 33.7N 80.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 12/1800Z 39.0N 68.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-07 21:32

WTNT34 KNHC 072100
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Michael Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

...AIRCRAFT FINDS MICHAEL STRONGER...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
...THREAT TO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. GULF COAST INCREASING...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 85.5W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth
* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

Interests along the northeastern and central U.S. Gulf coast should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was
located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 85.5 West. Michael is
moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A northward
motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next
few days. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move
over the Yucatan Channel on Monday, and then across the eastern Gulf
of Mexico late Monday through Tuesday night, and approach
the northeastern Gulf coast on Wednesday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next
few days, and Michael is forecast to become a hurricane Monday night
or Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
primarily to the east of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance
aircraft is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by this evening or tonight, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 7 inches over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the
Yucatan Peninsula and Belize through Tuesday. Isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba. This rainfall
could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in areas
of mountainous terrain.

Elsewhere, outer rain bands from Michael are expected to produce
total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the Florida Keys
through Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-07 21:32

WTNT24 KNHC 072058
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018
2100 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING
COZUMEL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. GULF COAST SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHAEL.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 85.5W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 85.5W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 86.0W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.1N 85.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.5N 85.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.2N 86.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 25.0N 86.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 29.2N 85.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 33.7N 80.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 39.0N 68.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 85.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

2018-10-07 18:33

WTNT34 KNHC 071743
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
100 PM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

...MICHAEL EXPECTED TO SPREAD HEAVY RAINS OVER WESTERN CUBA
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 86.9W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth
* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

Interests along the northeastern and central U.S. Gulf coast should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was
located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 86.9 West. Michael is
currently stationary but is expected to resume a slow northward
motion later today. A northward motion with some increase in forward
speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track,
the center of Michael will move near the northeastern tip of the
Yucatan Peninsula Monday morning, and then across the eastern Gulf
of Mexico late Monday through Wednesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and
Michael could become a hurricane by Tuesday night or Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 200 miles (320 km)
mainly to the north and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by this evening or tonight, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL: Total rain accumulations of 3 to 7 inches are expected
over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the Yucatan Peninsula,
Belize, and northern Honduras through Tuesday. Isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba. This rainfall
could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in areas
of mountainous terrain.

Elsewhere, outer rain bands from Michael are expected to produce
total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the Florida Keys
through Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-07 17:33

WTNT64 KNHC 071653
TCUAT4

Tropical Storm Michael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1155 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

Satellite wind data indicate that the depression has strengthened
into Tropical Storm Michael. The maximum winds are estimated to be
40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is currently en route to investigate Michael.


SUMMARY OF 1155 AM CDT...1655 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 86.9W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-07 15:32

WTNT44 KNHC 071453
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

Satellite and radar data indicate that the depression continues to
become better organized, but surface data suggests the circulation
may be somewhat elongated. There is still evidence of westerly
shear as the center is located near the western edge of the main
convective mass, but there has been an increase in banding over
the eastern semicircle since yesterday afternoon. The depression
appears to be close to tropical storm strength and Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB are between 30-35 kt. An Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system early this afternoon and should provide a better assessment
of the intensity of the cyclone. For now, the intensity is held at
a possibly conservative 30 kt.

The moderate westerly shear that is affecting the depression is
forecast to gradually decrease over the next day or two as an
upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico moves westward and
weakens. This, in combination with warm waters, should allow for
gradual strengthening as the system moves northward over the Gulf of
Mexico. Nearly all of the intensity models bring the cyclone to
hurricane strength over the Gulf of Mexico in 2 to 3 days, and the
NHC forecast follows suit. The new NHC intensity forecast is
slightly higher than the previous advisory and again lies near the
ICON intensity consensus. This is a little below the more aggressive
HWRF and HCCA models.

The depression is moving northward at about 5 kt. The system is
forecast to move generally northward during the next 2 to 3 days,
with some increase in forward speed as it moves between a deep-layer
ridge over the western Atlantic and a trough over the west-central
United Sates. A northeastward turn is expected after 72 hours as
the aforementioned trough progresses eastward across the central
United States. The dynamical models generally agree on the overall
scenario, but there are still large difference in forward speed. In
fact, the ECMWF ensemble has members that are still over the Gulf of
Mexico in 5 days, and others that reach southern New England in that
time period. The NHC forecast is near the left side of the guidance
envelope through 48 hours out of respect for the GFS and ECMWF that
are both on that side of the track spread. After that time, the NHC
track forecast is close to the various consensus aids to account for
both the along and cross track spread of the guidance.


Key Messages for Tropical Depression Fourteen:

1. The depression is forecast to produce heavy rainfall and
flash flooding over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days.

2. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later
today, and tropical storm conditions are expected by tonight over
portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula,
where tropical storm warnings are in effect.

3. There is an increasing risk of dangerous storm surge, rainfall,
and wind impacts over portions of the northern Gulf Coast by
mid-week, although it is too soon to specify the exact location and
magnitude of these impacts. Residents in these areas should monitor
the progress of this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 19.2N 86.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 20.0N 86.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 21.5N 86.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 23.2N 86.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 24.9N 87.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 28.7N 86.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 33.0N 82.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 12/1200Z 37.8N 73.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-07 15:32

WTNT34 KNHC 071452
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

...DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWARD...
...HEAVY RAINS WILL SPREAD OVER WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 86.9W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth
* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

Interests along the northeastern and central U.S. Gulf coast should
monitor the progress of the depression.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Fourteen was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 86.9 West.
The depression is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). This
general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected
over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center will move
near the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula Monday morning,
and then across the eastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday through
Wednesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The
system could become a hurricane by Tuesday night or Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by this evening or tonight, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL: Total rain accumulations of 3 to 7 inches are expected
over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the Yucatan Peninsula,
Belize, and northern Honduras through Tuesday. Isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba. This rainfall
could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in areas
of mountainous terrain.

Elsewhere, outer rain bands from the depression are expected to
produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the Florida
Keys through Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-07 15:32

WTNT24 KNHC 071452
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018
1500 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. GULF COAST SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 86.9W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 86.9W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 86.9W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.0N 86.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.5N 86.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.2N 86.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.9N 87.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.7N 86.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 33.0N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 37.8N 73.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 86.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

2018-10-07 12:33

WTNT34 KNHC 071150
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fourteen Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
700 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...
...HEAVY RAINS WILL SPREAD OVER WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 86.8W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM ENE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth
* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

Interests along the northeastern and central U.S. Gulf coast should
monitor the progress of the depression.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen
was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 86.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h). This
general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected
over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center will move
through the Yucatan Channel Monday morning and then across the
eastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next several days,
and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later
today. The system could become a hurricane by Tuesday night or
Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by this evening or tonight, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL: Total rain accumulations of 3 to 7 inches are expected
over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the Yucatan Peninsula,
Belize, and northern Honduras through Tuesday. Isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba. A separate area
of persistent very heavy rainfall is expected along the Pacific
coast of Central America and Mexico, including western Nicaragua, El
Salvador, Guatemala, and the state of Chiapas in Mexico. In many of
these areas this rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash
floods.

Elsewhere, outer rain bands from the depression are expected to
produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the Florida
Keys through Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-07 09:36

WTNT44 KNHC 070851
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
400 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

Radar data from Belize and infrared satellite imagery indicate that
the low pressure system centered just off the coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula has continued to become better organized, with deep
convection consolidating just to the northeast of the low-level
center. Dvorak estimates have increased to T2.0 from TAFB and T1.5
from SAB, indicating that the convective pattern has become
sufficiently organized for the low to now be declared a tropical
depression. The maximum winds are estimated to be 30 kt based on
earlier ASCAT data.

The Belize radar data was extremely helpful in locating the
depression's center, and the system's 12-hour average motion is
north-northwestward, or 340 degrees, at a very slow 3 kt. The
depression is expected to move generally northward during the next
3 days, gradually gaining speed as it enters the southerly flow
between high pressure over the western Atlantic and an advancing
deep-layer trough over the western half of the United States. After
day 3, the trough is expected to cause the cyclone to turn
northeastward and accelerate further across the southeastern United
States. While the track models agree on the general scenario,
there are some speed differences, most notably with the ECMWF model
being slower than the other guidance. Also, the ECMWF and GFS
models are located along the western edge of the guidance envelope.
In light of these facts, the new NHC prediction is just a little
slower than the previous one, and it lies to the west of the TVCN
multi-model consensus and the HCCA model during the first 3 days of
the forecast.

The depression is still being hampered by 20-30 kt of westerly
shear, however it is also located in an environment of upper-level
diffluence to the southeast of a stationary trough over the Gulf of
Mexico. The shear in the immediate vicinity of the cyclone is
forecast to gradually abate during the next 2-3 days while the
diffluent upper-air pattern continues, and along with sufficiently
warm waters of 28-30 degrees Celsius, all indications are that the
depression will gradually strengthen while it moves northward over
the Gulf of Mexico. In fact, nearly every piece of intensity
guidance brings the cyclone to hurricane strength before it reaches
land, including the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET global models, which all
show significant deepening of the central pressure. The updated NHC
intensity forecast generally lies between the ICON intensity
consensus and the HCCA model for the entire forecast period, and it
now explicitly shows the cyclone reaching hurricane strength by 72
hours.


Key Messages for Tropical Depression Fourteen:

1. The depression is producing heavy rainfall and flash flooding
over portions of Central America, and these rains will spread over
western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during
the next couple of days.

2. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later
today, and tropical storm conditions are expected by tonight over
portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula,
where tropical storm warnings are in effect.

3. Storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts are possible over
portions of the northern Gulf Coast by mid-week, although it is
too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of these
impacts. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of
this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 18.6N 86.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 19.4N 86.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 20.8N 86.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 22.3N 86.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 23.9N 87.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 27.6N 87.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 32.0N 84.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 12/0600Z 37.0N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR THE VA COAST

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-10-07 09:36

WTNT44 KNHC 070235
TCDAT4

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 06 2018

The cloud pattern has improved in organization and surface pressures
are gradually falling, but there is no evidence that the system is
a tropical cyclone at this time. All indications are, however, that
a tropical depression will likely form at any time soon. Strong wind
shear is expected to affect the disturbance, and the SHIPS model
only show a modest strengthening. This is in contrast to some global
models and the HWRF, which are more aggressive in developing this
system. Since the environment is marginally favorable, the NHC
forecast only gradually strengthens the system at the rate of the
intensity consensus IVCN. However, the forecast is highly uncertain
given the solution of the global models.

Since the system does not have a well-defined center, the initial
motion is also uncertain. The best estimate is toward the north or
360 degrees at 6 kt. Over the next 2 or 3 days, the cyclone will be
embedded within the deep southerly flow between a strong subtropical
ridge over the western Atlantic and a sharp mid-latitude trough
advancing eastward over the United States. This flow pattern will
force the system to move northward at 5 to 10 kt across the
eastern Gulf of Mexico for the next 2 to 3 days. By day 4, the
system should have moved inland and be weakening. It should
then race northeastward farther inland across the eastern U.S. The
track guidance envelope is remarkably quite tight. This increases
the confidence in the track forecast primarily after the cyclone
forms.

Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen:

1. This system is producing heavy rainfall and flash flooding over
portions of Central America, and these rains will spread over
western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during
the next couple of days.

2. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm by late
Sunday, and tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of
western Cuba, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

3. The system could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts
to portions of the northern Gulf Coast by mid-week, although it is
too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of these
impacts. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of
this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 18.8N 86.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 07/1200Z 19.5N 86.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 08/0000Z 21.0N 86.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 22.3N 86.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 23.8N 86.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 27.4N 87.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 32.0N 85.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 12/0000Z 38.5N 77.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-10-07 09:36

WTNT44 KNHC 062050
TCDAT4

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
400 PM CDT Sat Oct 06 2018

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the
circulation of the low pressure area in the northwestern Caribbean
Sea is getting better defined, and that the associated convection
is becoming better organized. While the system is currently not
well enough organized to call it a tropical depression, current
indications in the global models and the intensity guidance are that
the system will develop into a tropical cyclone within 24 h and
could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of western Cuba
and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula. Based on the need for
warnings and watches in these areas, advisories are being initiated
on Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen.

Although the intensity guidance is in excellent agreement that the
system should strengthen through the forecast period, the global
models indicate that shear caused by an upper-level trough over the
Gulf of Mexico will persist through at least 48 h. In addition, the
strongest winds are currently well removed from the center, which is
likely to slow development. Based on this, the intensity forecast
is in the lower part of the guidance envelope through 48 h, and then
shows a faster rate of development from 48-96 h when the shear is
forecast to diminish. The intensity forecast is closest to a blend
of the IVCN and HCCA consensus models.

For the first 24-48 h, the disturbance should move generally
northward on the western side of a weak mid-level ridge over the
Caribbean Sea. After that time, a large mid-latitude trough over
the central United States and a mid- to upper-level ridge over the
western Atlantic should steer the system generally northward at a
faster forward speed, with the system expected to move near or over
the northern Gulf coast in about 96 h. After landfall, the system
is likely to recurve northeastward into the westerlies. The track
guidance is in good overall agreement with this scenario. However,
it should be noted that there is a nearly 300 n mi cross-track
spread in the guidance at the 96-h point. The forecast track lies
just to the west of the various consensus models.

Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen:

1. This system is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash
flooding over portions of Central America, western Cuba, and the
northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of
days. The system is also forecast to become a tropical storm by
Sunday night and tropical storm conditions are expected over
portions of western Cuba where a Tropical Storm Warning is in
effect.

2. The system could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to
portions of the northern Gulf Coast by mid-week, although it is too
soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of these impacts.
Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of this system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 18.0N 86.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 07/0600Z 18.7N 86.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 19.9N 86.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 08/0600Z 21.0N 86.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 22.5N 86.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 26.0N 87.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 30.5N 86.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 35.5N 81.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-10-07 09:36

WTNT34 KNHC 070851
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
400 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 86.9W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch from
Tulum to Cabo Catoche to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth
* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

Interests along the northeastern and central U.S. Gulf coast should
monitor the progress of the depression.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen
was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 86.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h).
A turn toward the north is expected later today, with that motion
at a faster forward speed continuing through early Wednesday. On
the forecast track, the center will move through the Yucatan
Channel Monday morning and then across the eastern Gulf of Mexico
late Monday through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next several days, with
the depression expected to become a tropical storm later today.
The system could become a hurricane by Tuesday night or Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by this evening or tonight, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL: Total rain accumulations of 3 to 7 inches are expected
over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the Yucatan Peninsula,
Belize, and northern Honduras through Tuesday. Isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba. A separate area
of persistent very heavy rainfall is expected along the Pacific
coast of Central America and Mexico, including western Nicaragua, El
Salvador, Guatemala, and the state of Chiapas in Mexico. In many of
these areas this rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash
floods.

Elsewhere, outer rain bands from the depression are expected to
produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the Florida
Keys through Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-10-07 09:36

WTNT34 KNHC 070537
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
100 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

...DISTURBANCE MEANDERING OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 87.1W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), radar data from Belize indicated that the
low pressure system was centered near latitude 18.4 North, longitude
87.1 West. The low has been meandering just off the coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula during the past few hours, but its longer-term
motion is toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). The low is
expected to turn northward later today, with that motion continuing
for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the low or the
tropical cyclone should move across the Yucatan Channel near the
eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula through tonight, and then
move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Monday.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that the maximum sustained
winds have increased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.
The low is expected to become a tropical depression later today and
a tropical storm by tonight. A reconnaissance plane will
investigate the system this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by tonight, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area tonight and on Monday.

RAINFALL: The low is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 7 inches over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the
Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and northern Honduras through Tuesday.
Isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba.
A separate area of persistent very heavy rainfall is expected along
the Pacific coast of Central America and Mexico, including western
Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala, and the state of Chiapas in
Mexico. In many of these areas this rainfall could lead to
life-threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-10-07 09:36

WTNT34 KNHC 070235
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 06 2018

...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ON SUNDAY...
...HEAVY RAINS REACHING WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 86.6W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the low pressure system was centered near
latitude 18.8 North, longitude 86.6 West. The low is moving
northward near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected
for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the low or the
tropical cyclone should move across the Yucatan Channel near the
eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula through Sunday night, and
then move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the
system is expected to become a tropical depression on Sunday and
a tropical storm on Sunday night. A reconnaissance plane will
investigate the system on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by Sunday night, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area Sunday night and Monday.

RAINFALL: The low is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 7 inches over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the Yucatan
peninsula, Belize, and northern Honduras through Tuesday. Isolated
maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba. A
separate area of persistent very heavy rainfall is expected along
the Pacific coast of Central America and Mexico, including western
Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala, and the state of Chiapas in
Mexico. In many of these areas this rainfall could lead to
life-threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-10-07 09:36

WTNT34 KNHC 062330
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
700 PM CDT Sat Oct 06 2018

...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT OR SUNDAY...
...HEAVY RAINS HEADING FOR WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 86.6W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the area of low pressure was centered near
latitude 18.3 North, longitude 86.6 West. The system appears to be
moving northward near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is
expected for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the
low or the tropical cyclone should move near the eastern coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico tonight through Sunday night, and
then move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
the system is expected to become a tropical depression later tonight
or on Sunday and a tropical storm on Sunday night. A reconnaissance
plane will investigate the system on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...100 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by Sunday night, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area Sunday night and Monday.

RAINFALL: The low is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 7 inches over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the Yucatan
peninsula, Belize, and northern Honduras through Tuesday. Isolated
maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba. A
separate area of persistent very heavy rainfall is expected along
the Pacific coast of Central America and Mexico, including western
Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala, and the state of Chiapas in
Mexico. In many of these areas this rainfall could lead to
life-threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-10-07 09:36

WTNT34 KNHC 062049
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
400 PM CDT Sat Oct 06 2018

...DISTURBANCE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...
...WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 86.6W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
provinces of Pinar del Rio and Isle of Youth.

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo Catoche.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
18.0 North, longitude 86.6 West. The system is moving toward the
northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A motion toward the north is
expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track,
the center of the disturbance should move near the eastern coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico tonight through Sunday night, and
then move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the
disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression on Sunday
and a tropical storm on Sunday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by Sunday night, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area Sunday night and Monday.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 3 to 7 inches over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches
over the Yucatan peninsula, Belize, and northern Honduras through
Tuesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible in
western Cuba. A separate area of persistent very heavy rainfall is
expected along the Pacific coast of Central America and Mexico,
including western Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala, and the state
of Chiapas in Mexico. In many of these areas this rainfall could
lead to life-threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

2018-10-07 09:36

WTNT24 KNHC 070850
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018
0900 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. GULF COAST SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 86.9W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 86.9W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 87.0W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.4N 86.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.8N 86.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.3N 86.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.9N 87.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.6N 87.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 32.0N 84.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 37.0N 76.0W...NEAR THE VA COAST
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 86.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

2018-10-07 09:36

WTNT24 KNHC 070234
TCMAT4

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018
0300 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 86.6W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 86.6W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 86.6W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.5N 86.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 21.0N 86.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 22.3N 86.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.8N 86.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 27.4N 87.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 32.0N 85.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 38.5N 77.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 86.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-10-07 09:35

WTNT24 KNHC 062049
TCMAT4

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018
2100 UTC SAT OCT 06 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND ISLE OF YOUTH.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 86.6W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 86.6W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 86.6W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.7N 86.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.9N 86.6W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.0N 86.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.5N 86.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 26.0N 87.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 30.5N 86.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 35.5N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 86.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN