Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for TITLI-18
in India

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2018-10-11 05:06

WTIO32 PGTW 110300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (TITLI) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 18.9N 84.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 84.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 19.7N 84.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

2018-10-11 05:06

WTIO32 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (TITLI) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 18.9N 84.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 84.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 19.7N 84.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 20.5N 84.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 21.7N 85.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 84.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (TITLI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 312 NM
SOUTHWEST OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING A DEFINED EYE
THAT HAS JUST MADE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF INDIA. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE
FEATURE. HOWEVER, TROCHOIDAL MOTION WAS OBSERVED IN THE ANIMATED EIR
IMAGERY AS THE EYE ROTATED AROUND A CENTRAL AXIS WHILE MOVING TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST, AND TC 06B IS CLOSE TO THE EDGE OF THE METEOSAT-8
AND HIMAWARI SATELLITE VIEWING SWATHS, LEADING TO PARALLAX ERROR AND
LENDING UNCERTAINTY TO THE EXACT CENTER POSITION. A 102205Z SSMIS
91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE AND SOLID RING OF DEEP CONVECTION
SURROUNDING THE CENTER JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS HEDGED IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 102045Z DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T5.0 (90 KTS) FROM PGTW AND A 102015Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF
91 KTS, AND IS UNDER THE 102030Z KNES ESTIMATE OF T6.0 (115 KTS).
WHILE CONVECTION DEEPENED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND THE EYE
REORGANIZED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS, TC 06B ALSO BEGAN TO MOVE OVER
LAND, WHICH IS ERODING THE CONVECTION IN THE MOST RECENT FRAMES OF
EIR IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA WITH LOW (10-15 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND STILL MAINTAINS AN EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE CYCLONE JOGGED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE PAST 6
HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER LAND
AS TC 06B ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. TC 06B WILL WEAKEN
OVER LAND UNTIL IT DISSIPATES BEYOND TAU 48. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, WITH ECMWF SLIGHTLY TO THE
WEST OF THE OTHER MODELS. THE JTWC FORECAST IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY WEST
OF THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNINGS (WTIO31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-10-10 23:34

WTIO32 PGTW 102100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (TITLI) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 18.5N 85.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 85.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 19.5N 84.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-10-10 23:34

WTIO32 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (TITLI) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 18.5N 85.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 85.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 19.5N 84.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 20.4N 84.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 21.8N 85.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 18.8N 85.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (TITLI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM
SOUTHWEST OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST REGION OF COLD
CLOUD TOPS AND AN INTERMITTENT EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON INFLOW STILL VISIBLE IN THE EIR
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES BASED ON THE COLDER
CLOUD TOPS AND PREVIOUS RAPID INTENSIFICATION TREND. THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA WITH LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS TO THE WEST OF
THE SYSTEM. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AT 30 CELSIUS, ALTHOUGH TC 06B WILL ONLY REMAIN OVER
WATER FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST
AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL NORTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, AROUND TAU
6. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER LAND AS
TC 06B ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. AS TC 06B APPROACHES LAND
IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS, LAND INTERACTION WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM DESPITE THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. AFTER LANDFALL,
INCREASING VWS AND INTERACTION WITH LAND WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
FURTHER TO 30 KTS BY TAU 36. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
MEMBERS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, WITH ECMWF SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF
THE OTHER MODELS. THE JTWC FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MULTIMODEL
CONSENSUS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNINGS (WTIO31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-10-10 17:42

WTIO32 PGTW 101500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (TITLI) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 17.6N 85.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 85.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 18.8N 84.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-10-10 17:42

WTIO32 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (TITLI) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 17.6N 85.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 85.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 18.8N 84.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 19.6N 84.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 20.5N 84.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 21.6N 86.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 17.9N 85.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06B (TITLI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 114 NM EAST
OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT
MAINTAINED AN 18-NM RAGGED EYE AND EXPANSIVE RAIN BANDS THAT WRAPPED
TIGHTER INTO THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE IN THE EIR ANIMATION THAT IS ADJUSTED FOR
PARALLAX AND LINED UP WITH A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE IN THE
100931Z COLORIZED 37 GHZ SSMIS DIRECT PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON EQUIVALENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.0 FROM PGTW AND KNES AND
REFLECTS THE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA
WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET
BY EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG POLEWARD BIAS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN CONDUCIVE AT 30 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST
AND SHORTLY AFTER TAU 12 WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF INDIA NORTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM
WILL RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER LAND AS TC 06B ROUNDS THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE STR. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND
FUEL A STEADY INTENSIFICATION UP TO 95 KNOTS NEAR LANDFALL.
AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN
WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 25 KNOTS BY TAU 48. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z,
110900Z AND 111500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNINGS
(WTIO31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-10-10 11:32

WTIO32 PGTW 100900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (TITLI) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 17.0N 85.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 85.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 18.2N 85.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-10-10 11:32

WTIO32 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (TITLI) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 17.0N 85.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 85.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 18.2N 85.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 19.4N 84.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 20.1N 84.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 21.0N 85.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 85.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06B (TITLI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY DEEPENED AND DEVELOPED
A 18-NM RAGGED EYE AS IT MAINTAINED EXPANSIVE RAIN BANDS THAT WRAPPED
TIGHTER INTO THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE IN THE EIR ANIMATION THAT IS ADJUSTED FOR
PARALLAX AND LINED UP WITH A WELL-DEFINED CENTER IN THE 100428Z
DIRECT ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM OBJECTIVE
AND AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.1 TO T5.0 AND REFLECTS
THE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA WITH
MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG POLEWARD BIAS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN CONDUCIVE AT 30 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST
AND SHORTLY AFTER TAU 18 WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF INDIA NORTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM
WILL RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER LAND AS THE STR WEAKENS AND RECEDES.
THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND FUEL A STEADY
INTENSIFICATION UP TO 85 KNOTS NEAR LANDFALL. AFTERWARD, INCREASING
VWS AND INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE
SYSTEM DOWN TO 30 KNOTS BY TAU 48. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
MEMBERS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 24
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNINGS (WTIO31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-10-10 05:32

WTIO32 PGTW 100300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (TITLI) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (TITLI) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 16.3N 86.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 86.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 17.4N 85.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-10-10 05:32

WTIO32 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (TITLI) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (TITLI) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 16.3N 86.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 86.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 17.4N 85.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 18.6N 84.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 20.0N 85.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 21.4N 86.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 23.6N 89.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 85.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (TITLI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATE, WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A CLOUD-
COVERED AND OBSCURED LLCC. AS OF 100000Z, THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A
NASCENT EYE BEGINNING TO FORM, BUT THIS HAS YET TO BECOME DISTINCTLY
EVIDENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE OWING TO A 092316Z 36 GHZ GPM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A
DISTINCT MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING IN ALL
QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS WITH FAIR
INTENSITY BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55
KNOTS), AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.5 AND A SATCON ESTIMATE
OF 58 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 06B LIES IN AN
AREA HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO MAKING
LANDFALL, WITH LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VWS, STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW BEING
PROVIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL POINT SOURCE VERY NEAR THE SYSTEM, AND
HIGH SSTS (29-30 CELSIUS). THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST THAILAND. TC TITLI, IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED STR, MAKING LANDFALL NORTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM,
INDIA NEAR TAU 24 AS IT APPROACHES THE STR AXIS. AFTER MAKING
LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH, THEN RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AS IT
ROUNDS THE RIDGE. TC 06B IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS PRIOR TO LANDFALL, AS VWS REMAINS LOW, OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST
AND SSTS INCREASE ALONG COASTAL INDIA. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE LOCAL TERRAIN,
DISSIPATING OVER LAND OVER CENTRAL BANGLADESH BY TAU 72. AVAILABLE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24, WITH A 70 NM
SPREAD BETWEEN GFS TO THE WEST AND NAVGEM TO THE EAST DEFINING THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE GUIDANCE DIVERGES SOMEWHAT AFTER LANDFALL BUT
REMAINS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST, WITH ALONG TRACK ERROR BEING THE DOMINANT CONCERN AS THE
SYSTEM RECURVES ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE
JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS,
HEDGED TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNINGS (WTIO31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-10-09 23:34

WTIO32 PGTW 092100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (TITLI) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (TITLI) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 16.2N 86.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 86.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 17.3N 86.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-10-09 23:34

WTIO32 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (TITLI) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (TITLI) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 16.2N 86.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 86.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 17.3N 86.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 18.6N 85.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 19.5N 85.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 20.7N 85.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 23.3N 87.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 16.5N 86.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06B (TITLI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 399 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CYCLONE HAS CONSOLIDATED WITH EXTENSIVE
RAIN BANDS WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATING A 091556Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH REVEALS
THE LLCC IS JUST NORTH OF THE CONVECTION WRAPPING IN FROM THE WEST.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS FALLS BETWEEN DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF T3.0 (45 KTS) AND T4.0 (65 KTS). THE
CYCLONE IS LOCATED IN AN REGION WITH MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(29-30 CELSIUS). TC 06A IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). IT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER
NORTHEASTERN INDIA AROUND TAU 36 WITH AN INTENSITY OF 70 KTS. AFTER
MAKING LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS, RECURVE
NORTHEASTWARD, AND DISSIPATE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION BY TAU 72. THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BASED ON STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 17 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNINGS (WTIO31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-10-09 16:34

WTIO32 PGTW 091500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (SIX) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 15.2N 86.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 86.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 16.1N 86.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 17.3N 85.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

2018-10-09 16:34

WTIO32 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (SIX) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 15.2N 86.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 86.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 16.1N 86.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 17.3N 85.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 18.6N 84.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 19.6N 84.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 21.8N 86.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 15.4N 86.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM SOUTHEAST
OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH WEAK, FRAGMENTED, BUT
VERY EXPANSIVE RAIN BANDS FEEDING INTO AN OBSCURED CENTER. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A FAINT BUT DEFINED LLC FEATURE
IN THE 090943Z 37 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE
FROM PGTW OF T2.5/35KTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA WITH MODERATE
(15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE AT 29 CELSIUS. THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36 WILL MAKE LANDFALL
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF INDIA NORTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM.
AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER LAND AS THE STR
RECEDES. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND FUEL A
STEADY INTENSIFICATION UP TO 65 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTERWARD,
INCREASING VWS AND INTERACTION WITH TERRAIN AFTER LANDFALL WILL
RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 30 KNOTS BY TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE MEMBERS HAVE COME INTO TIGHTER AGREEMENT, LENDING
FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z,
100900Z AND 101500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNINGS
(WTIO31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES//
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2018-10-09 12:33

WTIO32 PGTW 090900 RRC
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 21.3N 86.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 22.8N 88.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 86.5E.
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255 NM SOUTHEAST
OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH WEAK, FRAGMENTED, BUT VERY EXPANSIVE
RAIN BANDS FEEDING INTO AN ILL-DEFINED CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW OF T2.5/25KTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE AT 29 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST
AND BY TAU 48 WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF INDIA
NORTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL RECURVE

2018-10-09 12:33

WTIO32 PGTW 090900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081421ZOCT2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (SIX) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 14.8N 86.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 86.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 15.5N 86.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 16.6N 85.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

2018-10-09 11:49

WTIO32 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081421ZOCT2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (SIX) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 14.8N 86.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 86.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 15.5N 86.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 16.6N 85.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 18.0N 85.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 19.3N 84.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 21.3N 86.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 22.8N 88.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 86.5E.
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255 NM SOUTHEAST
OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH WEAK, FRAGMENTED, BUT VERY EXPANSIVE
RAIN BANDS FEEDING INTO AN ILL-DEFINED CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW OF T2.5/35KTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE AT 29 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST
AND BY TAU 48 WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF INDIA
NORTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL RECURVE
NORTHEASTWARD OVER LAND AS THE STR RECEDES. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND FUEL A MODEST INTENSIFICATION UP TO 60
KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND INTERACTION WITH
TERRAIN AFTER LANDFALL WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 25 KNOTS
BY TAU 96. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD.
IN VIEW OF THIS AND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS FIRST TRACK FORECAST FROM JTWC.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNINGS (WTIO31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 081430).//
NNNN