Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for TARA-18
in Mexico

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2018-10-17 04:32

WTNT82 EGRR 170357

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 17.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 16.1N 94.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 17.10.2018 0 16.1N 94.4W 1005 33
1200UTC 17.10.2018 12 14.2N 93.8W 1005 37
0000UTC 18.10.2018 24 13.3N 94.7W 1004 32
1200UTC 18.10.2018 36 12.7N 94.3W 1005 32
0000UTC 19.10.2018 48 13.8N 95.6W 1005 35
1200UTC 19.10.2018 60 15.2N 98.4W 999 51
0000UTC 20.10.2018 72 16.1N 102.0W 997 41
1200UTC 20.10.2018 84 16.0N 104.2W 995 40
0000UTC 21.10.2018 96 17.4N 105.2W 993 41
1200UTC 21.10.2018 108 19.0N 105.8W 980 62
0000UTC 22.10.2018 120 21.3N 105.7W 991 51
1200UTC 22.10.2018 132 23.1N 106.2W 1004 26
0000UTC 23.10.2018 144 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TARA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.3N 105.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP222018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 17.10.2018 0 19.3N 105.9W 1006 22
1200UTC 17.10.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 13.3N 94.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.10.2018 24 13.3N 94.7W 1004 32
1200UTC 18.10.2018 36 12.7N 94.3W 1005 32
0000UTC 19.10.2018 48 13.8N 95.6W 1005 35
1200UTC 19.10.2018 60 15.2N 98.4W 999 51
0000UTC 20.10.2018 72 16.1N 102.0W 997 41
1200UTC 20.10.2018 84 16.0N 104.2W 995 40
0000UTC 21.10.2018 96 17.4N 105.2W 993 41
1200UTC 21.10.2018 108 19.0N 105.8W 980 62
0000UTC 22.10.2018 120 21.3N 105.7W 991 51
1200UTC 22.10.2018 132 23.1N 106.2W 1004 26
0000UTC 23.10.2018 144 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 13.1N 116.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.10.2018 108 13.1N 116.2W 1007 23
0000UTC 22.10.2018 120 13.3N 115.6W 1007 25
1200UTC 22.10.2018 132 13.2N 114.4W 1007 28
0000UTC 23.10.2018 144 13.6N 112.8W 1007 28


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 170356

2018-10-17 04:32

WTNT80 EGRR 170356

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 17.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 16.1N 94.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 17.10.2018 16.1N 94.4W WEAK
12UTC 17.10.2018 14.2N 93.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.10.2018 13.3N 94.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.10.2018 12.7N 94.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.10.2018 13.8N 95.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.10.2018 15.2N 98.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 20.10.2018 16.1N 102.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.10.2018 16.0N 104.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.10.2018 17.4N 105.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.10.2018 19.0N 105.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 22.10.2018 21.3N 105.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 22.10.2018 23.1N 106.2W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 23.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TARA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.3N 105.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP222018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 17.10.2018 19.3N 105.9W WEAK
12UTC 17.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 13.3N 94.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 18.10.2018 13.3N 94.7W WEAK
12UTC 18.10.2018 12.7N 94.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.10.2018 13.8N 95.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.10.2018 15.2N 98.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 20.10.2018 16.1N 102.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.10.2018 16.0N 104.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.10.2018 17.4N 105.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.10.2018 19.0N 105.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 22.10.2018 21.3N 105.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 22.10.2018 23.1N 106.2W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 23.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 13.1N 116.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 21.10.2018 13.1N 116.2W WEAK
00UTC 22.10.2018 13.3N 115.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.10.2018 13.2N 114.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.10.2018 13.6N 112.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 170356

2018-10-17 03:33

WTPZ42 KNHC 170233
TCDEP2

REMNANTS OF TARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222018
1000 PM CDT TUE OCT 16 2018

DATA FROM SEVERAL RECENT MICROWAVE OVERPASSES, LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE
IMAGERY, AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT TARA NO
LONGER HAS A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER. THE MID-LEVEL CENTER OF
THE FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE APPEARED TO MOVE INLAND EARLIER THIS
EVENING, THOUGH IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THE SURFACE CENTER MADE IT
THAT FAR. REGARDLESS, THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO HAS CAUSED THE
SURFACE CIRCULATION TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND
DISSIPATE. THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON TARA. ALTHOUGH THE
REMNANT TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE INTERMITTENT CONVECTION NEAR THE
COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT, CONTINUED CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND SHOULD
PREVENT IT FROM REORGANIZING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE, AND ALL OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE REMNANTS WILL GRADUAL WEAKEN OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.

ALTHOUGH TARA IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL DEPRESSION, ITS REMNANTS
COULD STILL CAUSE HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO OVERNIGHT. LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 20.0N 105.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...REMNANTS OF TARA
12H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-10-17 03:33

WTPZ32 KNHC 170232
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF TARA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222018
1000 PM CDT TUE OCT 16 2018

...TARA DISSIPATES NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO...
..................LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER
PORTIONS
OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 105.5W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), THE REMNANTS OF TARA WERE LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 105.5 WEST. THE REMNANTS ARE MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H) AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: THE REMNANTS OF TARA ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF COLIMA AND
WESTERN JALISCO, THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

.................
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-10-17 03:33

WTPZ22 KNHC 170232
TCMEP2

REMNANTS OF TARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222018
0300 UTC WED OCT 17 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 105.5W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 105.5W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 105.5W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 105.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-10-17 03:33

WTPN31 PHNC 170400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22E (TARA) WARNING NR 011
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 22E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 19.8N 105.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 105.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 20.4N 105.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
170400Z POSITION NEAR 20.0N 105.6W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22E (TARA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 993 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 7 FEET.//
NNNN

2018-10-16 21:34

WTPZ42 KNHC 162033 RRA
TCDEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222018
400 PM CDT TUE OCT 16 2018

INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO,
ALONG WITH SOME MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR AND DRIER MID-LEVEL
AIR, HAVE COMBINED TO WEAKEN TINY TARA. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STILL
HAS A TIGHT SPIRAL CONVECTIVE BANDING SIGNATURE IN RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY. HOWEVER, THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SMALL CIRCULATION
IS CLEARLY INTERACTING WITH THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS, AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM MANZANILLO, MEXICO (MMZO) SINCE 1500Z HAVE
INDICATED A VEERING WIND FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT A STEADY 20
KT. THE POSITION AND INTENSITY WERE BASED IN PART ON THE MMZO
OBSERVATIONS AND A 1541Z SCATSAT PASS, BUT MAINLY ON A 1630Z AMSU
MICROWAVE SATELLITE OVERPASS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/02 KT. SURFACE WIND DIRECTION
DATA FROM MMZO INDICATE THAT TARA PASSED WEST OF THAT STATION'S
LONGITUDE AROUND 1530Z. VISIBLE AND SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA
INDICATE THAT A SURFACE/LOW-LEVEL TROUGH LIES NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST
JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO, AND THE TINY
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
TROUGH AXIS FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS PER MOST OF THE NEW 12Z
GLOBAL MODELS. THE HWRF HANGS ON TO A WEAK LOW UNTIL ABOUT 48 HOURS
OR SO, WITH DISSIPATION OCCURRING QUICKLY THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS, KEEPING TARA AS A REMNANT
LOW THROUGH 36 HOURS. HOWEVER, IF THE SMALL CYCLONE DOESN'T MOVE
AWAY FROM MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THEN DEGENERATION INTO A

2018-10-16 21:34

WTPZ42 KNHC 162033
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Tara Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222018
400 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

Interaction with the mountainous terrain of southwestern Mexico,
along with some modest southeasterly wind shear and drier mid-level
air, have combined to weaken tiny Tara. The tropical cyclone still
has a tight spiral convective banding signature in recent microwave
imagery. However, the northern portion of the small circulation
is clearly interacting with the coastal mountains, and surface
observations from Manzanillo, Mexico (MMZO) since 1500Z have
indicated a veering wind from northeast to southeast at a steady 20
kt. The position and intensity were based in part on the MMZO
observations and a 1541Z ScatSat pass, but mainly on a 1630Z AMSU
microwave satellite overpass.

The initial motion estimate is 325/02 kt. Surface wind direction
data from MMZO indicate that Tara passed west of that station's
longitude around 1530Z. Visible and scatterometer satellite data
indicate that a surface/low-level trough lies northwest-to-southeast
just offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico, and the tiny
tropical cyclone is expected to drift slowly northwestward along the
trough axis for the next 12-24 hours as per most of the new 12Z
global models. The HWRF hangs on to a weak low until about 48 hours
or so, with dissipation occurring quickly thereafter. The official
forecast lies between these two scenarios, keeping Tara as a remnant
low through 36 hours. However, if the small cyclone doesn't move
away from Mexico within the next 12 hours, then degeneration into a
remnant low and eventual dissipation could occur sooner than
forecast due to continued intrusions of drier mid-level air and
interaction with the mountainous terrain of southwestern Mexico.

Regardless of the exact track or intensity of Tara or its remnants,
heavy rainfall will continue to be a threat along the immediate
coast of southwestern Mexico for the next day or so due to the
system's slow motion, and life-threatening flash flooding will be
possible in mountainous areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 19.0N 105.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 19.2N 105.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 19.5N 105.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/0600Z 19.7N 106.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-16 21:34

WTPZ32 KNHC 162033 RRA
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TARA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222018
400 PM CDT TUE OCT 16 2018

...TINY TARA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...
...............TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND WATCH DISCONTINUED...
...............LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO CONTINUE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL
AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 105.0W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TARA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 105.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH (4 KM/H). A
VERY SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF TARA SHOULD PASS VERY
CLOSE TO THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, OR POSSIBLY MOVE INLAND,
TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS TARA'S CIRCULATION
INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, AND THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TONIGHT OR ON

2018-10-16 21:34

WTPZ32 KNHC 162033
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Tara Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222018
400 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...TINY TARA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND WATCH DISCONTINUED...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO CONTINUE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 105.0W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the tropical storm
warning and tropical storm watch for southwestern Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Tara was
located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 105.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A
very slow northwestward motion is expected during the next day or
so. On the forecast track, the center of Tara should pass very
close to the coast of southwestern Mexico, or possibly move inland,
tonight or Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast as Tara's circulation
interacts with the mountains of southwestern Mexico, and the system
is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low later tonight or on
Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Tara is expected to produce additional rainfall of
3 to 6 inches over the Mexican states of Colima and western
Jalisco through tonight, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches
possible over Colima and western Jalisco. These rains may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in
mountainous terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-16 21:34

WTPZ22 KNHC 162032
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222018
2100 UTC TUE OCT 16 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 105.0W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 105.0W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 104.9W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.2N 105.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.5N 105.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 19.7N 106.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 105.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

..
FORECASTER STEWART

2018-10-16 18:33

WTPZ32 KNHC 161753 RRA
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TARA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222018
100 PM CDT TUE OCT 16 2018

...TARA WEAKENS SOME MORE WHILE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...
........LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 104.8W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
...... MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
...... EAST OF MANZANILLO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TARA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 104.8 WEST. TARA IS
DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH (4 KM/H). A VERY
SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON

2018-10-16 18:33

WTPZ32 KNHC 161753
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Tara Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222018
100 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...TARA WEAKENS SOME MORE WHILE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 104.8W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Manzanillo to Punta San Telmo Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12
to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Tara was
located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 104.8 West. Tara is
drifting toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A very
slow northwestward motion is expected during the next day or so. On
the forecast track, the center of Tara should pass very close to the
coast of southwestern Mexico, or possibly move inland, tonight or
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast as Tara's
circulation interacts with the mountains of southwestern Mexico, and
the system is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by Wednesday
evening.

Tara remains a tiny tropical cyclone with tropical-storm-force winds
only extending outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Tara is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
5 to 10 inches over the Mexican states of Colima and western
Jalisco through tonight. Isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are
possible over Colima and western Jalisco. These rains may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in
mountainous terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area today through Wednesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area today and tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-16 16:34

WTNT82 EGRR 161556

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 16.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 16.5N 87.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.10.2018 0 16.5N 87.9W 1008 24
0000UTC 17.10.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM TARA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.8N 105.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP222018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.10.2018 0 19.8N 105.8W 1008 19
0000UTC 17.10.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 14.3N 93.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.10.2018 24 14.3N 93.3W 1005 38
0000UTC 18.10.2018 36 13.6N 94.2W 1004 31
1200UTC 18.10.2018 48 13.3N 94.9W 1005 33
0000UTC 19.10.2018 60 13.9N 95.4W 1004 36
1200UTC 19.10.2018 72 15.2N 98.3W 1001 45
0000UTC 20.10.2018 84 16.6N 101.2W 1000 49
1200UTC 20.10.2018 96 17.2N 104.5W 1001 39
0000UTC 21.10.2018 108 17.2N 105.5W 998 34
1200UTC 21.10.2018 120 18.5N 106.1W 991 47
0000UTC 22.10.2018 132 20.0N 106.4W 978 59
1200UTC 22.10.2018 144 21.4N 106.6W 983 54

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 10.5N 145.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.10.2018 96 10.8N 145.9W 1006 22
0000UTC 21.10.2018 108 11.1N 146.5W 1004 24
1200UTC 21.10.2018 120 11.8N 146.7W 1005 22
0000UTC 22.10.2018 132 12.6N 146.7W 1005 24
1200UTC 22.10.2018 144 13.5N 146.0W 1006 25

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 13.0N 116.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.10.2018 120 12.9N 117.4W 1007 23
0000UTC 22.10.2018 132 13.3N 116.0W 1006 26
1200UTC 22.10.2018 144 13.9N 114.9W 1007 27


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 161556

2018-10-16 16:34

WTNT80 EGRR 161556

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 16.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 16.5N 87.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 16.10.2018 16.5N 87.9W WEAK
00UTC 17.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM TARA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.8N 105.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP222018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 16.10.2018 19.8N 105.8W WEAK
00UTC 17.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 14.3N 93.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.10.2018 14.3N 93.3W WEAK
00UTC 18.10.2018 13.6N 94.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.10.2018 13.3N 94.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.10.2018 13.9N 95.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.10.2018 15.2N 98.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.10.2018 16.6N 101.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.10.2018 17.2N 104.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.10.2018 17.2N 105.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.10.2018 18.5N 106.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 22.10.2018 20.0N 106.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 22.10.2018 21.4N 106.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 10.5N 145.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 20.10.2018 10.8N 145.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 21.10.2018 11.1N 146.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.10.2018 11.8N 146.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.10.2018 12.6N 146.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.10.2018 13.5N 146.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 13.0N 116.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 21.10.2018 12.9N 117.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.10.2018 13.3N 116.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.10.2018 13.9N 114.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 161556

2018-10-16 15:34

WTPZ42 KNHC 161443 RRA
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM TARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222018
1000 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2018

A SURGE OF MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR EARLY THIS
MORNING DECAPITATED TARA, WITH THE ORIGINAL UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION
NOW DISPLACED MORE THAN 100 NMI TO THE NORTH OR JUST EAST OF PUERTO
VALLARTA. CONVECTION WANED CONSIDERABLY AS A RESULT OF THE SHEAR AND
DECOUPLING OF THE LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS, BUT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS MADE A LITTLE BIT OF COMEBACK OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER, THE DECOUPLING LIKELY RESULTED IN
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF THE TINY TROPICAL STORM, SO THE INTENSITY
HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 40 KT, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE 35-KT
WINDS NOTED IN AN EARLIER SCATSAT SCATTEROMETER OVERPASS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 335/01 KT. DATA
FROM A RECENT 1035Z SSMI/S OVERPASS SUGGEST THAT TARA HASN'T MOVED
MUCH, IF AT ALL, DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE FIRST FEW VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES ALSO INDICATE THIS, AND THAT TARA MAY JUST BE A
SMALL SWIRL EMBEDDED WITHIN A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ELONGATED
TROUGH. FOR NOW, THE SYSTEM IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A TINY TROPICAL
CYCLONE THAT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. ALMOST ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HWRF AND NAVGEM MODELS DISSIPATE THE
CYCLONE IN 24-36 HOURS, SO THE FORECAST TRACK BEYOND 24 HOURS LEANS
HEAVILY ON CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK, ALONG WITH
SOME INPUT FROM THE HWRF MODEL. HOWEVER, IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT
TARA COULD DISSIPATE SOONER THAN INDICATED.

2018-10-16 15:34

WTPZ42 KNHC 161443
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Tara Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222018
1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

A surge of moderate to strong southeasterly wind shear early this
morning decapitated Tara, with the original upper-level circulation
now displaced more than 100 nmi to the north or just east of Puerto
Vallarta. Convection waned considerably as a result of the shear and
decoupling of the low- and upper-level circulations, but
thunderstorm activity has made a little bit of comeback over the
past few hours. However, the decoupling likely resulted in
significant weakening of the tiny tropical storm, so the intensity
has been lowered to 40 kt, which is slightly higher than the 35-kt
winds noted in an earlier ScatSat scatterometer overpass.

The initial motion estimate is a highly uncertain 335/01 kt. Data
from a recent 1035Z SSMI/S overpass suggest that Tara hasn't moved
much, if at all, during the past 12 hours. The first few visible
satellite images also indicate this, and that Tara may just be a
small swirl embedded within a northwest-to-southeast elongated
trough. For now, the system is being maintained as a tiny tropical
cyclone that is expected to drift slowly northwestward along the
aforementioned surface trough axis. Almost all of the model guidance
with the exception of the HWRF and NAVGEM models dissipate the
cyclone in 24-36 hours, so the forecast track beyond 24 hours leans
heavily on continuity with the previous advisory track, along with
some input from the HWRF model. However, it is quite possible that
Tara could dissipate sooner than indicated.

The vertical shear is forecast to weaken to less than 10 kt in 12-18
hours, but there may not be enough of a circulation remaining at
that time to take advantage of the improving environment. Intrusions
of dry mid-level air along with some interaction with the
mountainous terrain of southwestern Mexico are expected to override
the favorable wind shear environment, causing Tara to weaken to a
depression within 24 hours, and degenerate into a remnant low
pressure system by 36 hours. However, weakening could occur more
rapidly than forecast due to the recent loss of vertically
structure.

Regardless of the exact track or intensity of Tara or its remnants,
heavy rainfall will continue to be a threat along the immediate
coast of southwestern Mexico due to the system's slow motion, and
life-threatening flash flooding will be possible in mountainous
areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 18.6N 104.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 18.9N 104.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 19.2N 105.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 19.5N 105.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/1200Z 19.7N 106.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-16 15:34

WTPZ32 KNHC 161442 RRA
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TARA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222018
1000 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2018

...TARA WEAKENS WHILE MEANDERING SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...
........LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 104.5W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
...... MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
...... EAST OF MANZANILLO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TARA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 104.5 WEST. TARA IS
DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 1 MPH (2 KM/H). A VERY
SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON

2018-10-16 15:34

WTPZ32 KNHC 161442
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Tara Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222018
1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...TARA WEAKENS WHILE MEANDERING SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 104.5W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Manzanillo to Punta San Telmo Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12
to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Tara was
located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 104.5 West. Tara is
drifting toward the north-northwest near 1 mph (2 km/h). A very
slow northwestward motion is expected during the next day or so. On
the forecast track, the center of Tara should pass very close to the
coast of southwestern Mexico, or possibly move inland, today or
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast as Tara's circulation
interacts with the mountains of southwestern Mexico, and the system
is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by Wednesday evening.

Tara remain a tiny tropical cyclone with tropical-storm-force winds
only extending outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Tara is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
5 to 10 inches over the Mexican states of Colima, western Jalisco,
and far western Michoacan through tonight. Isolated maximum amounts
of 15 inches are possible over Colima and western Jalisco. These
rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides,
especially in mountainous terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area today through Wednesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area today and tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-16 15:34

WTPZ22 KNHC 161442 RRA
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM TARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222018
1500 UTC TUE OCT 16 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... EAST OF MANZANILLO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 104.5W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 1 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 104.5W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 104.5W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.9N 104.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.2N 105.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.5N 105.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 19.7N 106.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

2018-10-16 15:34

WTPZ22 KNHC 161442
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM TARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222018
1500 UTC TUE OCT 16 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF MANZANILLO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 104.5W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 1 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 104.5W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 104.5W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.9N 104.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.2N 105.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.5N 105.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 19.7N 106.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 104.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

2018-10-16 12:33

WTPZ32 KNHC 161142 RRA
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TARA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222018
700 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2018

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES OVER THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 104.5W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... EAST OF MANZANILLO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TARA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 104.5 WEST. TARA IS
DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 1 MPH (2 KM/H). THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF TARA SHOULD PASS VERY

2018-10-16 12:33

WTPZ32 KNHC 161142
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Tara Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222018
700 AM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES OVER THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 104.5W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Manzanillo to Punta San Telmo Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12
to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Tara was
located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 104.5 West. Tara is
drifting toward the north-northwest near 1 mph (2 km/h). The system
is forecast to move slowly toward the northwest during the next day
or so. On the forecast track, the center of Tara should pass very
close to the coast of southwestern Mexico, or possibly move inland,
today or Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast as Tara interacts with the
mountains of southwestern Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Tara is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
5 to 10 inches over the Mexican states of Colima, western Jalisco,
and far western Michoacan through tonight. Isolated maximum amounts
of 15 inches are possible over Colima and western Jalisco. These
rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides,
especially in mountainous terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area today through Wednesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area today and tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-16 09:33

WTPZ42 KNHC 160841 RRA
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM TARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222018
400 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2018

AN AMSU MICROWAVE OVERPASS AFTER THE RELEASE OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY SUGGESTS THAT TARA IS A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED THAN BEFORE.
THE IMAGE SHOWED THAT THE CENTER OF THE SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE WAS
LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND,
BUT IT WAS NOT AS TIGHTLY COILED AS BEFORE. CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY HAS ALSO REVEALED AN OVERALL DECREASE IN THE AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION AND SIZE OF THE COLD CLOUDS TOPS OVERNIGHT. BASED ON
THESE TRENDS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 50 KT, WHICH IS
A BLEND OF THE LATEST TAFB AND SAB DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS.

THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS REMAIN QUITE CHALLENGING THIS
MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND THE INTERACTION OF
THE CIRCULATION WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO HAVE
CAUSED WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE
COAST, ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS PREDICTED, AND THE NHC FORECAST
CALLS FOR A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TARA WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE MUCH SOONER THAN
SHOWN BELOW IF THE SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES INLAND OR IS SO
CLOSE TO THE COAST THAT THE CIRCULATION BECOMES DISRUPTED BY THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THE LATTER IS THE SCENARIO FAVORED BY MOST
OF THE TYPICALLY RELIABLE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT TARA CONTINUES TO INCH CLOSER TO THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, AND THE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 2 KT. THE

2018-10-16 09:33

WTPZ42 KNHC 160841
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Tara Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222018
400 AM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

An AMSU microwave overpass after the release of the previous
advisory suggests that Tara is a little less organized than before.
The image showed that the center of the small tropical cyclone was
located near the southeastern portion of a curved convective band,
but it was not as tightly coiled as before. Conventional satellite
imagery has also revealed an overall decrease in the area of deep
convection and size of the cold clouds tops overnight. Based on
these trends, the initial intensity is reduced to 50 kt, which is
a blend of the latest TAFB and SAB Dvorak classifications.

The track and intensity forecasts remain quite challenging this
morning. It appears that southeasterly shear and the interaction of
the circulation with the high terrain of southwestern Mexico have
caused weakening overnight. As the system moves closer to the
coast, additional weakening is predicted, and the NHC forecast
calls for a gradual decrease in intensity over the next few days.
It is possible that Tara will weaken and dissipate much sooner than
shown below if the small tropical cyclone moves inland or is so
close to the coast that the circulation becomes disrupted by the
mountainous terrain. The latter is the scenario favored by most
of the typically reliable dynamical model guidance.

Satellite fixes indicate that Tara continues to inch closer to the
coast of southwestern Mexico, and the somewhat uncertain initial
motion estimate is north-northwest or 335 degrees at 2 kt. The
latest runs of the global models once again either bring Tara
inland over Mexico today or show it dissipating near the
southwestern coast of Mexico within the next day or so. As a
result, the NHC track forecast has again been adjusted northward and
brings the center of Tara very close to the coast within the next
12 to 24 hours. Out of respect for continuity of the previous
advisories, the new NHC forecast keeps Tara meandering near
southwestern Mexico through 72 hours, but it is possible
that the storm will weaken and dissipate much sooner. Regardless of
the exact track or intensity of Tara, heavy rainfall will continue
to be a threat along the coast of southwestern Mexico due to the
system's slow motion, and life-threatening flash flooding will be
possible in mountainous areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 18.7N 104.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 19.1N 104.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 19.5N 105.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 19.9N 105.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 20.0N 106.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 20.0N 106.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-16 09:33

WTPZ32 KNHC 160841 RRA
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TARA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222018
400 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2018

...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES AS TARA INCHES CLOSER TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 104.5W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... EAST OF MANZANILLO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TARA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 104.5 WEST. TARA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH (4 KM/H). THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF TARA SHOULD PASS VERY

2018-10-16 09:33

WTPZ32 KNHC 160841
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Tara Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222018
400 AM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES AS TARA INCHES CLOSER TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 104.5W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Manzanillo to Punta San Telmo Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12
to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Tara was
located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 104.5 West. Tara is
moving toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). The system
is forecast to move slowly toward the northwest during the next day
or so. On the forecast track, the center of Tara should pass very
close to the coast of southwestern Mexico, or possibly move inland,
today or Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast as Tara interacts with the mountains
of southwestern Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Tara is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
5 to 10 inches over the Mexican states of Colima, western Jalisco,
and far western Michoacan through tonight. Isolated maximum amounts
of 15 inches are possible over Colima and western Jalisco. These
rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides,
especially in mountainous terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area today through Wednesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area today and tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-16 09:33

WTPZ22 KNHC 160840 RRA
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM TARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222018
0900 UTC TUE OCT 16 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... EAST OF MANZANILLO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 104.5W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 104.5W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 104.5W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.1N 104.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.5N 105.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.9N 105.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.

2018-10-16 09:33

WTPZ22 KNHC 160840
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM TARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222018
0900 UTC TUE OCT 16 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF MANZANILLO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 104.5W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 104.5W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 104.5W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.1N 104.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.5N 105.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.9N 105.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.0N 106.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 20.0N 106.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 104.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

2018-10-16 06:33

WTPZ32 KNHC 160542 RRA
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TARA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222018
100 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2018

...TARA DRIFTING CLOSER TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 104.5W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... EAST OF MANZANILLO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TARA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 104.5 WEST. TARA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH (4 KM/H). TARA'S
FUTURE TRACK IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN WEST AT A SIMILAR SPEED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TARA'S CENTER SHOULD PASS VERY CLOSE TO

2018-10-16 06:33

WTPZ32 KNHC 160542
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Tara Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222018
100 AM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...TARA DRIFTING CLOSER TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 104.5W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Manzanillo to Punta San Telmo Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Tara was
located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 104.5 West. Tara is
moving toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). Tara's
future track is highly uncertain. The system is forecast to move
slowly toward the northwest and then west at a similar speed during
the next couple of days. Tara's center should pass very close to
the coast of southwestern Mexico, or possibly move inland, today
and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day
or two if Tara's center remains offshore.

Tara is a tiny tropical storm, and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Tara is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches through
Tuesday along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of
Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. These rains may produce
life-threatening flash floods.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area today and tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-16 04:33

WTNT82 EGRR 160356

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 16.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.0N 89.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.10.2018 0 14.0N 89.2W 1007 20
1200UTC 16.10.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM TARA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.4N 100.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP222018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.10.2018 0 18.4N 100.8W 1006 21
1200UTC 16.10.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 14.0N 93.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.10.2018 36 14.0N 93.8W 1005 34
0000UTC 18.10.2018 48 13.2N 93.7W 1004 28
1200UTC 18.10.2018 60 13.3N 93.8W 1002 32
0000UTC 19.10.2018 72 14.1N 95.4W 999 41
1200UTC 19.10.2018 84 15.2N 97.9W 998 51
0000UTC 20.10.2018 96 18.5N 101.0W 1005 28
1200UTC 20.10.2018 108 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 10.2N 141.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.10.2018 72 10.3N 141.1W 1005 24
1200UTC 19.10.2018 84 10.6N 141.6W 1005 25
0000UTC 20.10.2018 96 11.0N 142.3W 1004 26
1200UTC 20.10.2018 108 11.4N 143.4W 1004 27
0000UTC 21.10.2018 120 11.5N 144.1W 1003 26
1200UTC 21.10.2018 132 11.9N 144.6W 1003 24
0000UTC 22.10.2018 144 12.6N 144.6W 1002 29

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 12.4N 117.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.10.2018 84 12.4N 117.2W 1006 25
0000UTC 20.10.2018 96 13.1N 116.9W 1005 25
1200UTC 20.10.2018 108 13.5N 117.0W 1005 27
0000UTC 21.10.2018 120 13.9N 116.0W 1003 34
1200UTC 21.10.2018 132 14.4N 115.1W 1003 33
0000UTC 22.10.2018 144 14.4N 114.1W 1003 34

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 17.9N 105.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.10.2018 132 17.9N 105.4W 1001 37
0000UTC 22.10.2018 144 19.4N 105.8W 995 47


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 160356

2018-10-16 04:33

WTNT80 EGRR 160356

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 16.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.0N 89.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 16.10.2018 14.0N 89.2W WEAK
12UTC 16.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM TARA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.4N 100.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP222018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 16.10.2018 18.4N 100.8W WEAK
12UTC 16.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 14.0N 93.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.10.2018 14.0N 93.8W WEAK
00UTC 18.10.2018 13.2N 93.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.10.2018 13.3N 93.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.10.2018 14.1N 95.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.10.2018 15.2N 97.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.10.2018 18.5N 101.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 20.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 10.2N 141.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 19.10.2018 10.3N 141.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.10.2018 10.6N 141.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.10.2018 11.0N 142.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.10.2018 11.4N 143.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.10.2018 11.5N 144.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.10.2018 11.9N 144.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.10.2018 12.6N 144.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 12.4N 117.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 19.10.2018 12.4N 117.2W WEAK
00UTC 20.10.2018 13.1N 116.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.10.2018 13.5N 117.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.10.2018 13.9N 116.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.10.2018 14.4N 115.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.10.2018 14.4N 114.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 17.9N 105.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 21.10.2018 17.9N 105.4W WEAK
00UTC 22.10.2018 19.4N 105.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 160356

2018-10-16 03:33

WTPZ42 KNHC 160233 RRA
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM TARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222018
1000 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2018

A HIGH-RESOLUTION GCOM MICROWAVE PASS FROM 2030 UTC REVEALED THAT
TARA REMAINS A TINY TROPICAL CYCLONE, BUT IT HAS ALSO DEVELOPED
TIGHTLY COILED CONVECTIVE BANDS WHICH COULD NOT BE OBSERVED IN
CONVECTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONE. WITH THIS IMPROVED
STRUCTURE, TAFB'S DVORAK ESTIMATE, THE ADT ESTIMATE, AND SATCON ALL
INCREASED TO 55 KT, AND THAT IS SET AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ON
THIS ADVISORY.

THE GCOM PASS ALSO INDICATED THAT TARA'S CENTER HAS MOVED CLOSER TO
THE COAST OF MEXICO, ALBEIT SLOWLY, AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
IS NORTHWESTWARD, OR 325/2 KT. TARA'S FUTURE TRACK HAS BECOME LESS
CLEAR, AND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS OF VERY LOW CONFIDENCE. THE
MOST RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS (THE GFS, ECMWF, AND UKMET MODELS)
EITHER BRING TARA INLAND OVER MEXICO OR HAVE THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING
JUST OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND AS A RESULT, THERE
WERE VERY FEW MODEL TRACKERS TO FOLLOW WHEN MAKING THE FORECAST.
USING WHAT LITTLE VORTICITY CAN BE FOLLOWED IN THE GLOBAL MODEL
FIELDS, THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD,
CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MEXICO. THIS NEW FORECAST HAS TARA'S SMALL
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND FIELD GRAZING THE COAST OF COLIMA AND
JALISCO WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, AND SINCE THERE'S ALSO A
POSSIBILITY THAT THE CENTER WILL MOVE INLAND, THE GOVERNMENT OF
MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO
CORRIENTES TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

DUE TO TARA'S SMALL SIZE, CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE.

2018-10-16 03:33

WTPZ42 KNHC 160233
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Tara Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222018
1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

A high-resolution GCOM microwave pass from 2030 UTC revealed that
Tara remains a tiny tropical cyclone, but it has also developed
tightly coiled convective bands which could not be observed in
convectional satellite imagery alone. With this improved
structure, TAFB's Dvorak estimate, the ADT estimate, and SATCON all
increased to 55 kt, and that is set as the initial intensity on
this advisory.

The GCOM pass also indicated that Tara's center has moved closer to
the coast of Mexico, albeit slowly, and the initial motion estimate
is northwestward, or 325/2 kt. Tara's future track has become less
clear, and the NHC track forecast is of very low confidence. The
most reliable global models (the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET models)
either bring Tara inland over Mexico or have the system dissipating
just offshore during the next couple of days, and as a result, there
were very few model trackers to follow when making the forecast.
Using what little vorticity can be followed in the global model
fields, the new NHC track forecast has been adjusted northward,
closer to the coast of Mexico. This new forecast has Tara's small
tropical-storm-force wind field grazing the coast of Colima and
Jalisco within the next 12-24 hours, and since there's also a
possibility that the center will move inland, the government of
Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch from Manzanillo to Cabo
Corrientes to a Tropical Storm Warning.

Due to Tara's small size, continued intensification is possible.
However, moderate southeasterly shear is forecast to continue for
the next 24 hours, and as a result, the NHC forecast holds the
intensity at 55 kt for the next day or two. After 24 hours, the
shear vector begins to turn more southerly and southwesterly, which
will likely allow drier air to entrain into the circulation. And,
that all assumes that Tara will not have moved inland by that time.
Based on these environmental factors, and the fact that the models
are now showing the circulation dissipating much sooner, the
new NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous forecast at
48 hours and beyond, showing Tara becoming a remnant low by day 4
and dissipating by day 5.

Heavy rainfall will continue to be a threat along the coast of
southwestern Mexico due to the system's slow motion, and
life-threatening flash flooding will be possible in mountainous
areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 18.4N 104.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 18.7N 104.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 19.0N 105.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 19.1N 106.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 19.1N 106.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 18.9N 107.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 18.5N 107.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-10-16 03:33

WTPZ32 KNHC 160233 RRA
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TARA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222018
1000 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2018

...TARA TANTALIZINGLY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...
.............TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTS
OF
COLIMA AND JALISCO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 104.6W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
BETWEEN MANZANILLO AND CABO CORRIENTES TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
........... MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
........... EAST OF MANZANILLO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TARA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 104.6 WEST. TARA IS

2018-10-16 03:33

WTPZ32 KNHC 160233
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Tara Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222018
1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...TARA TANTALIZINGLY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF
COLIMA AND JALISCO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 104.6W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch
between Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Manzanillo to Punta San Telmo Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Tara was
located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 104.6 West. Tara is
moving toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). Tara's future
track is highly uncertain. The system is forecast to move
slowly toward the northwest and then west at a similar speed during
the next couple of days. Tara's center should pass very close to
the coast of southwestern Mexico, or possibly move inland, on
Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the
next day or two if Tara's center remains offshore.

Tara is a tiny tropical storm, and tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Tara is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches through
Tuesday along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of
Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. These rains may produce
life-threatening flash floods.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area overnight through early Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-10-16 03:33

WTPZ22 KNHC 160232 RRA
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM TARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222018
0300 UTC TUE OCT 16 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
BETWEEN MANZANILLO AND CABO CORRIENTES TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... EAST OF MANZANILLO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 104.6W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 104.6W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 104.5W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.7N 104.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.0N 105.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

2018-10-16 03:33

WTPZ22 KNHC 160232
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM TARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222018
0300 UTC TUE OCT 16 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
BETWEEN MANZANILLO AND CABO CORRIENTES TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF MANZANILLO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 104.6W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 104.6W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 104.5W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.7N 104.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.0N 105.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.1N 106.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.1N 106.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.9N 107.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 18.5N 107.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 104.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

2018-10-16 00:33

WTPZ32 KNHC 152338 RRA
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TARA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222018
700 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2018

...TARA STRENGTHENS SOME MORE...
............BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN SWIPING THE COASTS OF MICHOACAN,
COLIMA,
AND
JALISCO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 104.5W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.......... PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TARA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 104.5 WEST. TARA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH (4 KM/H). A MOTION TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO, ALTHOUGH THE TROPICAL STORM COULD BECOME STATIONARY AT TIMES. A
SLIGHTLY FASTER WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN AFTER
MID-WEEK. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF TARA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH

2018-10-16 00:33

WTPZ32 KNHC 152338
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Tara Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222018
700 PM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...TARA STRENGTHENS SOME MORE...
...BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN SWIPING THE COASTS OF MICHOACAN, COLIMA, AND
JALISCO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 104.5W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Tara was
located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 104.5 West. Tara is
moving toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A motion toward
the northwest or west-northwest is expected during the next day or
so, although the tropical storm could become stationary at times. A
slightly faster westward motion is forecast to begin after
mid-week. On the forecast track, the center of Tara is expected to
remain near or just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico
during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the
next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Tara is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches through
Tuesday along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of
Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. These rains may produce
life-threatening flash floods.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
by tonight or Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-10-15 21:33

WTPZ42 KNHC 152037 RRA
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM TARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222018
400 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2018

TARA IS NOW A TINY TROPICAL STORM CONSISTING OF A SMALL, CIRCULAR
AREA OF INTENSE CONVECTION THAT CONTINUES TO GO THROUGH BURSTING
PHASES. TWO RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES REVEALED THAT THE
PERSISTENT COLD OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS OF -85C TO -90C NEAR THE
CENTER HAS APPARENTLY STRETCHED THE VORTEX COLUMN VERTICALLY,
CAUSING THE INTENSITY TO INCREASE AND WIND FIELD TO SHRINK. THE
34-KT WIND RADII HAVE CONTRACTED DOWN TO ABOUT 20 NMI, AND THE
OUTERMOST CIRCULATION HAS DECREASED TO ONLY ABOUT 140 NMI WIDE. THE
HIGHEST ASCAT WIND SPEED VALUE MEASURED WAS 40 KT ON BOTH PASSES.
HOWEVER, ACTUAL PEAK WINDS WERE LIKELY UNDERSAMPLED GIVEN THAT THEY
WERE OBSERVED AT A DISTANCE OF ONLY 10 NMI FROM THE CENTER. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED ON A DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB,
AN OBJECTIVE UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.4/53 KT AND A SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 48 KT, AND THIS ESTIMATE IS PROBABLY CONSERVATIVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 305/02 KT. TARA'S
CENTER HAS LIKELY RE-DEVELOPED CLOSER TO THE STRONG CONVECTIVE
BURSTS THAT HAD BEEN OCCURING JUST NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS LOW-LEVEL
CENTER. AS SUCH, THE EXACT DIRECTION AND SPEED OF THE TINY TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN. RECENT SCATTEROMETER AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT TARA MAY HAVE BECOME STATIONARY OR IS
MAKING A TIGHT LOOP. ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS NOW KEEP
THE TINY TROPICAL CYCLONE OFFSHORE FOR THE ENTIRE 120-H FORECAST

2018-10-15 21:33

WTPZ42 KNHC 152037
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Tara Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222018
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

Tara is now a tiny tropical storm consisting of a small, circular
area of intense convection that continues to go through bursting
phases. Two recent ASCAT scatterometer passes revealed that the
persistent cold overshooting cloud tops of -85C to -90C near the
center has apparently stretched the vortex column vertically,
causing the intensity to increase and wind field to shrink. The
34-kt wind radii have contracted down to about 20 nmi, and the
outermost circulation has decreased to only about 140 nmi wide. The
highest ASCAT wind speed value measured was 40 kt on both passes.
However, actual peak winds were likely undersampled given that they
were observed at a distance of only 10 nmi from the center. The
initial intensity has been increased to 45 kt based on a Dvorak
satellite intensity estimate of T3.0/45 kt from both TAFB and SAB,
an objective UW-CIMSS ADT estimate of T3.4/53 kt and a SATCON
estimate of 48 kt, and this estimate is probably conservative.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 305/02 kt. Tara's
center has likely re-developed closer to the strong convective
bursts that had been occuring just north of the previous low-level
center. As such, the exact direction and speed of the tiny tropical
cyclone is difficult to ascertain. Recent scatterometer and visible
satellite data suggest that Tara may have become stationary or is
making a tight loop. All of the global and regional models now keep
the tiny tropical cyclone offshore for the entire 120-h forecast
period, and the new NHC model guidance indicates that a slow,
erratic motion toward the west-northwest or northwest should
occur for the next five days while Tara remains embedded within a
weak steering flow regime. The new official track forecast follows
the trend of the previous few advisory tracks, and lies near a blend
of the HCCA, FSSE, and TVCE consensus models. However, due to the
continued large spread in the guidance, the track forecast is of
low to moderate confidence.

The intensity forecast is problematic due to Tara's very small
circulation since tiny tropical cyclones can both spin up or spin
down very quickly. Moderate easterly to southeasterly vertical wind
shear is forecast to continue for the next 24 hours or so, followed
by a pronounced decrease in the shear until 48-72 hours. These
conditions should allow for a slow but steady increase in the
intensity. However, during the 36-to-60-hour period when the shear
will be the lowest, more significant strengthening could occur due
to Tara's small circulation. However, none of the guidance brings
the tiny cyclone to hurricane strength. By days 4 and 5,
southwesterly wind shear is forecast to increase to around 20 kt,
which is expected to induce gradual weakening. Due to Tara's small
circulation, the official intensity forecast is slightly higher than
the consensus models HCCA, IVCN, and FSSE, and closely follows the
LGEM statistical-dynamical intensity forecast aid.

Regardless of how close Tara comes to southwestern Mexico, heavy
rainfall will continue to be the primary threat along the coast of
southwestern Mexico due to the system's slow motion, and
life-threatening flash flooding will be possible in mountainous
areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 18.0N 104.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 18.1N 104.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 18.2N 104.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 18.2N 105.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 18.2N 106.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 18.7N 107.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 18.8N 108.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 18.5N 108.4W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-15 21:33

WTPZ32 KNHC 152037 RRA
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TARA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222018
400 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2018

...TINY TARA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE WHILE DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD...
...............HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 104.5W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
............. PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TARA WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE DATA NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 104.5
WEST. TARA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH (4 KM/H). A
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
THE NEXT DAY OR SO, ALTHOUGH THE TROPICAL STORM COULD BECOME
STATIONARY AT TIMES. A SLIGHTLY FASTER WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST
TO BEGIN AFTER MID-WEEK. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF TARA
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

2018-10-15 21:33

WTPZ32 KNHC 152037
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Tara Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222018
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...TINY TARA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE WHILE DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 104.5W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Tara was
located by satellite data near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 104.5
West. Tara is moving toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A
motion toward the northwest or west-northwest is expected during the
the next day or so, although the tropical storm could become
stationary at times. A slightly faster westward motion is forecast
to begin after mid-week. On the forecast track, the center of Tara
is expected to remain near or just offshore of the southwestern
coast of Mexico during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next
couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Tara is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches through
Tuesday along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of
Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. These rains may produce
life-threatening flash floods.

A reporting station in the coastal mountains in the state of
Michoacan recently reported a 24-hour rainfall total of 5.12 inches
(130 mm) as of 1200 UTC or 700 AM CDT this morning.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
by tonight or Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-15 21:33

WTPZ22 KNHC 152037 RRA
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM TARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222018
2100 UTC MON OCT 15 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 104.5W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 104.5W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 104.5W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.1N 104.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.2N 104.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.2N 105.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 18.2N 106.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.7N 107.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.

2018-10-15 21:33

WTPZ22 KNHC 152037
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM TARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222018
2100 UTC MON OCT 15 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 104.5W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 104.5W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 104.5W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.1N 104.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.2N 104.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.2N 105.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 18.2N 106.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.7N 107.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 18.8N 108.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 18.5N 108.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 104.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

2018-10-15 18:34

WTPZ32 KNHC 151750 RRA
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TARA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222018
100 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2018

...TARA MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
.........HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 104.6W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
....... PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TARA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 104.6 WEST. TARA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH (4 KM/H) AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A
SLIGHTLY FASTER WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN AFTER MID-WEEK.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF TARA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR
OR JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

2018-10-15 18:34

WTPZ32 KNHC 151750
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Tara Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222018
100 PM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...TARA MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 104.6W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Tara was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 104.6 West. Tara is
moving toward the west-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. A
slightly faster westward motion is forecast to begin after mid-week.
On the forecast track, the center of Tara is expected to remain near
or just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next
couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Tara is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches through
Tuesday along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of
Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. These rains may produce
life-threatening flash floods.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
by tonight or Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-15 16:33

WTNT82 EGRR 151556

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 15.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.7N 83.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.10.2018 0 15.7N 83.3W 1009 22
0000UTC 16.10.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM TARA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.8N 104.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP222018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.10.2018 0 17.8N 104.3W 1003 34
0000UTC 16.10.2018 12 18.5N 104.2W 1004 34
1200UTC 16.10.2018 24 19.0N 104.8W 1006 21
0000UTC 17.10.2018 36 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 14.2N 94.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.10.2018 60 14.2N 94.0W 1002 38
1200UTC 18.10.2018 72 14.4N 95.4W 999 41
0000UTC 19.10.2018 84 15.3N 97.8W 1000 45
1200UTC 19.10.2018 96 16.8N 101.4W 1005 42
0000UTC 20.10.2018 108 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 12.4N 115.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.10.2018 72 12.0N 115.5W 1006 23
0000UTC 19.10.2018 84 12.0N 115.6W 1004 26
1200UTC 19.10.2018 96 13.1N 115.8W 1004 30
0000UTC 20.10.2018 108 13.8N 115.1W 1003 36
1200UTC 20.10.2018 120 14.5N 114.4W 1003 35
0000UTC 21.10.2018 132 15.0N 113.2W 1002 36
1200UTC 21.10.2018 144 15.2N 111.1W 1003 40

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 10.0N 141.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.10.2018 84 10.2N 141.8W 1005 23
1200UTC 19.10.2018 96 10.2N 142.4W 1005 25
0000UTC 20.10.2018 108 10.4N 143.0W 1004 25
1200UTC 20.10.2018 120 10.6N 143.7W 1004 27
0000UTC 21.10.2018 132 10.9N 144.2W 1002 27
1200UTC 21.10.2018 144 11.4N 144.4W 1002 31

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 17.7N 105.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.10.2018 120 17.7N 105.4W 1004 35
0000UTC 21.10.2018 132 18.2N 106.4W 1000 33
1200UTC 21.10.2018 144 18.9N 107.1W 996 42


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 151556

2018-10-15 16:33

WTNT80 EGRR 151556

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 15.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.7N 83.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.10.2018 15.7N 83.3W WEAK
00UTC 16.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM TARA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.8N 104.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP222018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.10.2018 17.8N 104.3W WEAK
00UTC 16.10.2018 18.5N 104.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.10.2018 19.0N 104.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 14.2N 94.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 18.10.2018 14.2N 94.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 18.10.2018 14.4N 95.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.10.2018 15.3N 97.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.10.2018 16.8N 101.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 20.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 12.4N 115.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 18.10.2018 12.0N 115.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.10.2018 12.0N 115.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.10.2018 13.1N 115.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.10.2018 13.8N 115.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.10.2018 14.5N 114.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.10.2018 15.0N 113.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.10.2018 15.2N 111.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 10.0N 141.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 19.10.2018 10.2N 141.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.10.2018 10.2N 142.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.10.2018 10.4N 143.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.10.2018 10.6N 143.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.10.2018 10.9N 144.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.10.2018 11.4N 144.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 17.7N 105.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 20.10.2018 17.7N 105.4W WEAK
00UTC 21.10.2018 18.2N 106.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.10.2018 18.9N 107.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 151556

2018-10-15 15:33

WTPZ42 KNHC 151432 RRA
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM TARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222018
1000 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2018

TARA REMAINS A SMALL, SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH CONVECTION
CONTINUING TO GO THROUGH BURSTING PHASES NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
EXTREMELY COLD OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS OF -90C TO -95C HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS,
AND THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD SHIELD HAS GRADUALLY BEEN EXPANDING
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND T2.5/35 KT FROM SAB, AND THE MOST RECENT
OBJECTIVE ADT ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS WAS T3.1/47 KT. BASED ON THESE
DATA, THE INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY RAISED TO 40 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 295/01 KT. TARA IS
EXPECTED TO ONLY DRIFT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE SMALL CYCLONE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN
WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS MOVE TARA INLAND
JUST WEST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO, IN 36-48 HOURS, WHEREAS THE ECMWF,
GFS-FV3, HWRF, HMON, COAMPS-TC, AND CANADIAN MODELS KEEP THE CENTER
OFFSHORE. FOR NOW, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS
MODELS TVCE, HCCA, AND FSSE, KEEPING THE CENTER OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SINCE THERE APPEARS TO BE NO
SIGNIFICANT STEERING MECHANISM TO FORCE THE CIRCULATION ONSHORE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER 48 HOURS, THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
TARA IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO, FORCING
THE CYCLONE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER
FORWARD SPEED. HOWEVER, DUE TO CONTINUED LARGE SPREAD IN THE

2018-10-15 15:33

WTPZ42 KNHC 151432
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Tara Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222018
1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

Tara remains a small, sheared tropical cyclone with convection
continuing to go through bursting phases near the low-level center.
Extremely cold overshooting cloud tops of -90C to -95C have been
occurring just north of the center during the past couple of hours,
and the convective cloud shield has gradually been expanding
southeastward over the center. Satellite intensity estimates are
T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and T2.5/35 kt from SAB, and the most recent
objective ADT estimate from UW-CIMSS was T3.1/47 kt. Based on these
data, the intensity is conservatively raised to 40 kt.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 295/01 kt. Tara is
expected to only drift toward the west-northwest or northwest for
the next couple of days while the small cyclone remains embedded in
weak steering currents. The GFS and UKMET models move Tara inland
just west of Manzanillo, Mexico, in 36-48 hours, whereas the ECMWF,
GFS-FV3, HWRF, HMON, COAMPS-TC, and Canadian models keep the center
offshore. For now, the official forecast track follows the consensus
models TVCE, HCCA, and FSSE, keeping the center offshore the
southwestern coast of Mexico since there appears to be no
significant steering mechanism to force the circulation onshore for
the next couple of days. After 48 hours, the ridge to the north of
Tara is forecast to build westward across central Mexico, forcing
the cyclone on a west-northwestward track at a slightly faster
forward speed. However, due to continued large spread in the
guidance, the track forecast is of low confidence.

Moderate easterly to southeasterly shear is forecast by the models
to affect Tara for the next 24 hours or so. By 36 hours, the shear
is forecast to decrease to less than 5 kt and remain low until 72
hours, which should allow for some modest strengthening to occur...
assuming the center remains offshore. The small circulation, low
vertical wind shear conditions, and warm ocean temperatures near 30C
would typically result in more significant strengthening, but
proximity to land and a dry surrounding environment is expected to
temper the intensification process somewhat. By days 4 and 5,
southwesterly shear forecast to increase to around 20 kt should is
expected to induce some slight weakening. The official intensity
forecast is similar to but slightly higher than the consensus models
HCCA, IVCN, and FSSE, and maintains continuity with the previous
forecast.

Regardless of how close Tara comes to southwestern Mexico, heavy
rainfall will be the primary threat along the coast of southwestern
Mexico due to the system's slow motion, and life-threatening flash
flooding will be possible in mountainous areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 17.6N 104.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 17.8N 104.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 17.9N 104.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 17.9N 105.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 18.0N 105.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 18.4N 107.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 18.9N 108.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 19.0N 108.1W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-15 15:33

WTPZ32 KNHC 151431 RRA
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TARA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222018
1000 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2018

...TARA STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY WHILE DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
................HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 104.4W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.............. PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TARA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 104.4 WEST. TARA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 1 MPH (2 KM/H) AND THIS SLOW
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A SLIGHTLY
FASTER WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN AFTER MID-WEEK. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF TARA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR
JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW

2018-10-15 15:33

WTPZ32 KNHC 151431
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Tara Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222018
1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...TARA STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY WHILE DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 104.4W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Tara was
located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 104.4 West. Tara is
moving toward the west-northwest near 1 mph (2 km/h) and this slow
motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. A slightly
faster westward motion is forecast to begin after mid-week. On the
forecast track, the center of Tara is expected to remain near or
just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next
couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next few
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Tara is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches through
Tuesday along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of
Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. These rains may produce
life-threatening flash floods.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
by tonight or Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-15 15:33

WTPZ22 KNHC 151431 RRA
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM TARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222018
1500 UTC MON OCT 15 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 104.4W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 1 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 104.4W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 104.4W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.8N 104.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.9N 104.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.9N 105.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.0N 105.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.4N 107.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

2018-10-15 15:33

WTPZ22 KNHC 151431
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM TARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222018
1500 UTC MON OCT 15 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 104.4W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 1 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 104.4W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 104.4W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.8N 104.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.9N 104.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.9N 105.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.0N 105.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.4N 107.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 18.9N 108.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 19.0N 108.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 104.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

2018-10-15 12:33

WTPZ32 KNHC 151150 RRA
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TARA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222018
700 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2018

...TARA DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...........HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 104.3W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
......... PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TARA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 104.3 WEST. TARA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT NEAR 2 MPH (4 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A
SLIGHTLY FASTER WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN AFTER
MID-WEEK. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF TARA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

2018-10-15 12:33

WTPZ32 KNHC 151150
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Tara Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222018
700 AM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...TARA DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 104.3W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Tara was
located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 104.3 West. Tara is
moving toward the west-northwest at near 2 mph (4 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. A
slightly faster westward motion is forecast to begin after
mid-week. On the forecast track, the center of Tara is expected to
remain near or just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico
during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Tara is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches through
Tuesday along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of
Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. These rains may produce
life-threatening flash floods.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
by tonight or Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-15 09:33

WTPZ42 KNHC 150852 RRA
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM TARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222018
400 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2018

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS IMPROVED
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT, WITH CONVECTION CONTINUING TO BURST OVER THE
WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. THE CENTER
IS SLIGHTLY MORE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
COLD CLOUD TOPS, BUT EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO RESTRICT
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. A COUPLE OF
ASCAT PASSES AROUND 0400 UTC WERE HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER OF
THE CYCLONE AND BOTH INDICATED PEAK WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT TO THE
WEST OF THE CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 0600 UTC WERE
T2.5 (35 KT) FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB, AND GIVEN THE INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION, THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A 35-KT TROPICAL
STORM. THE NINETEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE 2018 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
HURRICANE SEASON.

RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE ASCAT DATA SHOW THAT TARA HAS NOT
MOVED MUCH, AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STATIONARY FOR
THIS ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH THE TROPICAL STORM IS LOCATED WITHIN AN
AREA OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AND LITTLE OVERALL MOTION IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS
BECOME MUCH MORE DIVERGENT THIS CYCLE. THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS
HAVE TRENDED NORTHWARD AND NOW BRING TARA NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE
ECMWF TAKES TARA SOUTHEASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE COAST.
THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS AIDS HAVE TRENDED NORTHWARD IN THE
SHORT-TERM, AND THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT

2018-10-15 09:33

WTPZ42 KNHC 150852
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Tara Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222018
400 AM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

The satellite presentation of the tropical cyclone has improved
somewhat overnight, with convection continuing to burst over the
western and northwestern portions of the circulation. The center
is slightly more embedded within the southeastern portion of the
cold cloud tops, but easterly shear continues to restrict
convection over the eastern portion of the system. A couple of
ASCAT passes around 0400 UTC were helpful in locating the center of
the cyclone and both indicated peak winds of 25 to 30 kt to the
west of the center. Dvorak classifications at 0600 UTC were
T2.5 (35 kt) from both SAB and TAFB, and given the increase in
organization, the system has been upgraded to a 35-kt tropical
storm. The nineteenth named storm of the 2018 eastern North Pacific
hurricane season.

Recent microwave imagery and the ASCAT data show that Tara has not
moved much, and the initial motion estimate is stationary for
this advisory. Although the tropical storm is located within an
area of weak steering currents and little overall motion is
expected during the next couple of days, the track guidance has
become much more divergent this cycle. The GFS and UKMET models
have trended northward and now bring Tara near the southwestern
coast of Mexico within the next day or so. On the other hand, the
ECMWF takes Tara southeastward and southward away from the coast.
The various consensus aids have trended northward in the
short-term, and the new NHC track forecast has been nudged in that
direction through 36 hours, but it is not as far north as the GFS,
GFS ensemble mean, and UKMET models. After 48 hours, a ridge is
forecast to build westward across central Mexico, which should cause
Tara to turn west-northwestward at a slightly faster forward speed.
Given the spread in the guidance and its recent trends, the track
forecast is of low confidence.

The intensity forecast is also very challenging and of low
confidence this morning. Tara is expected to remain under the
influence of easterly shear during the next day or two. The shear,
however, is not expected to be strong enough to prevent gradual
strengthening. After that time, the intensity forecast depends on
how close to the coast the cyclone moves. If Tara gets too close to
southwestern Mexico, the small cyclone is likely to weaken. If it
stays offshore, however, the shear is forecast to decrease which
should allow for additional strengthening. Since the NHC track
forecast keeps Tara offshore, it calls for gradual strengthening
through 72 hours, but it is not as aggressive as before since most
of the guidance is lower than before. Increasing southwesterly
shear by days 4 and 5 should lead to weakening, and although the NHC
forecast keeps Tara a tropical storm trough the period, most of the
global models weaken and dissipate the system by the end of the
week.

Due to the uncertainties in the track forecast, the government of
Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the coast
of southwest Mexico. Regardless of how close Tara tracks to
southwestern Mexico, heavy rainfall will be the primary threat along
the coast of southwestern Mexico due to the system's slow motion,
and life-threatening flash flooding will be possible in mountainous
areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 17.5N 104.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 17.8N 104.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 17.9N 104.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 17.9N 104.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 18.0N 105.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 18.3N 106.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 19.0N 108.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 19.0N 108.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-15 09:33

WTPZ32 KNHC 150852 RRA
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TARA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222018
400 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2018

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM...
...........HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...
...........TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 104.2W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO
CORRIENTES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
......... PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TARA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 104.2 WEST. TARA IS
STATIONARY, AND LITTLE OVERALL MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN AFTER
MID-WEEK. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF TARA IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

2018-10-15 09:33

WTPZ32 KNHC 150852
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Tara Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222018
400 AM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM...
...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 104.2W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
southwestern coast of Mexico from Punta San Telmo to Cabo
Corrientes.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Tara was
located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 104.2 West. Tara is
stationary, and little overall motion is expected during the next
day or so. A slow westward motion is forecast to begin after
mid-week. On the forecast track, the center of Tara is forecast
to remain near or just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico
during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the
next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Tara is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches through
Tuesday along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of
Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. These rains may produce
life-threatening flash floods.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
by tonight or Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-15 09:33

WTPZ22 KNHC 150849 RRA
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM TARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222018
0900 UTC MON OCT 15 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 104.2W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 104.2W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 104.2W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.8N 104.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.9N 104.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.9N 104.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.0N 105.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.3N 106.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

2018-10-15 09:33

WTPZ22 KNHC 150849
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM TARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222018
0900 UTC MON OCT 15 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 104.2W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 104.2W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 104.2W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.8N 104.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.9N 104.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.9N 104.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.0N 105.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.3N 106.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 19.0N 108.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 19.0N 108.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 104.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

2018-10-15 04:33

WTNT82 EGRR 150356

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 15.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.8N 81.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.10.2018 0 12.8N 81.4W 1009 20
1200UTC 15.10.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22E ANALYSED POSITION : 17.3N 104.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP222018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.10.2018 0 17.3N 104.2W 1004 26
1200UTC 15.10.2018 12 18.0N 104.5W 1003 34
0000UTC 16.10.2018 24 19.0N 104.5W 1004 26
1200UTC 16.10.2018 36 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 14.7N 93.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.10.2018 60 14.7N 93.8W 1003 39
0000UTC 18.10.2018 72 15.0N 94.5W 999 39
1200UTC 18.10.2018 84 15.3N 95.9W 1002 43
0000UTC 19.10.2018 96 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 11.9N 115.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.10.2018 72 12.1N 114.9W 1006 25
1200UTC 18.10.2018 84 12.5N 114.7W 1005 31
0000UTC 19.10.2018 96 13.1N 114.8W 1004 30
1200UTC 19.10.2018 108 13.9N 114.4W 1004 30
0000UTC 20.10.2018 120 14.4N 114.1W 1003 32
1200UTC 20.10.2018 132 14.7N 113.2W 1003 34
0000UTC 21.10.2018 144 14.9N 111.6W 1003 35

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 12.0N 136.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.10.2018 84 12.1N 137.3W 1007 23
0000UTC 19.10.2018 96 12.3N 138.5W 1006 24
1200UTC 19.10.2018 108 12.4N 139.7W 1006 26
0000UTC 20.10.2018 120 12.9N 141.3W 1005 25
1200UTC 20.10.2018 132 13.1N 142.7W 1005 27
0000UTC 21.10.2018 144 12.9N 144.0W 1003 27

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 17.7N 103.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.10.2018 108 17.7N 103.8W 1003 36
0000UTC 20.10.2018 120 18.1N 105.5W 997 40
1200UTC 20.10.2018 132 18.3N 106.4W 991 46
0000UTC 21.10.2018 144 18.6N 107.0W 989 48


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 150356

2018-10-15 04:33

WTNT80 EGRR 150356

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 15.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.8N 81.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.10.2018 12.8N 81.4W WEAK
12UTC 15.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22E ANALYSED POSITION : 17.3N 104.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP222018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.10.2018 17.3N 104.2W WEAK
12UTC 15.10.2018 18.0N 104.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.10.2018 19.0N 104.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 14.7N 93.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.10.2018 14.7N 93.8W WEAK
00UTC 18.10.2018 15.0N 94.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.10.2018 15.3N 95.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 11.9N 115.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 18.10.2018 12.1N 114.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.10.2018 12.5N 114.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.10.2018 13.1N 114.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.10.2018 13.9N 114.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.10.2018 14.4N 114.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.10.2018 14.7N 113.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.10.2018 14.9N 111.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 12.0N 136.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 18.10.2018 12.1N 137.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.10.2018 12.3N 138.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.10.2018 12.4N 139.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.10.2018 12.9N 141.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.10.2018 13.1N 142.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.10.2018 12.9N 144.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 17.7N 103.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 19.10.2018 17.7N 103.8W WEAK
00UTC 20.10.2018 18.1N 105.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 20.10.2018 18.3N 106.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 21.10.2018 18.6N 107.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 150356

2018-10-15 03:33

WTPZ42 KNHC 150236 RRA
TCDEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222018
1000 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2018

FOR THE FIRST TIME IN THE DEPRESSION'S (AND ITS PREDECESSOR LOW'S)
EXISTENCE, DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR MORE THAN A FEW HOURS.
THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY HAS BEEN SLOWLY EXPANDING, ALTHOUGH IT IS
STILL A LITTLE RESTRICTED ON THE EASTERN SIDE DUE SOME EASTERLY
SHEAR. BASED ON MICROWAVE DATA, THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE HAS
BEEN SLOW TO IMPROVE IN ORGANIZATION, AND CONSENSUS T2.0S FROM TAFB
AND SAB SUPPORT MAINTAINING A 30-KT INITIAL INTENSITY.

THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE, WITH A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH LOCATED NOT TOO FAR TO THE NORTH
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. ITS
POSITION PLACES THE DEPRESSION WITHIN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS, AND
THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO DRIFT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR EVEN MEANDER AT
SPEEDS OF LESS THAN 5 KT FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST ON THIS CYCLE,
AND THE NHC FORECAST HAS THEREFORE BEEN ADJUSTED NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST, ALTHOUGH NOT AS FAR AS THE TVCN
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS NOR THE HCCA AID. DESPITE THIS ADJUSTMENT,
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SMALL, WHICH SHOULD KEEP
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF MEXICO.

THE FORECAST REASONING FOR THE FUTURE INTENSITY HAS CHANGED
SUBSTANTIALLY. FOR THE FIRST 3 DAYS, VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE, AND THE CYCLONE'S SMALL SIZE WILL MAKE IT PRONE
TO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING DURING THAT PERIOD. IN FACT, BASED ON

2018-10-15 03:33

WTPZ42 KNHC 150236
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Twenty-Two-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222018
1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018

For the first time in the depression's (and its predecessor low's)
existence, deep convection has persisted for more than a few hours.
The convective canopy has been slowly expanding, although it is
still a little restricted on the eastern side due some easterly
shear. Based on microwave data, the structure of the cyclone has
been slow to improve in organization, and consensus T2.0s from TAFB
and SAB support maintaining a 30-kt initial intensity.

The depression is located near the western edge of a mid-level
ridge, with a deep-layer trough located not too far to the north
across northwestern Mexico and the western United States. Its
position places the depression within weak steering currents, and
the system is likely to drift west-northwestward or even meander at
speeds of less than 5 kt for much of the forecast period. The track
guidance has shifted a little more to the northwest on this cycle,
and the NHC forecast has therefore been adjusted north of the
previous official forecast, although not as far as the TVCN
multi-model consensus nor the HCCA aid. Despite this adjustment,
the cyclone is expected to remain small, which should keep
tropical-storm-force winds offshore of the coast of Mexico.

The forecast reasoning for the future intensity has changed
substantially. For the first 3 days, vertical shear is expected to
gradually decrease, and the cyclone's small size will make it prone
to significant strengthening during that period. In fact, based on
the Rapid Intensification Indices, the chance of a 30-kt increase
in 24 hours is 3 times more than average, and the chance of a 65-kt
increase in 72 hours is almost 9 times more than average.
Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast is above most of the guidance
through day 3, with the possibility of the depression becoming a
hurricane during that time. After day 3, the models are trending
toward the cyclone entering a region of higher shear associated
with the western U.S. trough, which would likely lead to a
weakening trend. Most of the intensity models suggest that the
cyclone's intensity will peak around 3 days, and therefore the NHC
intensity forecast now indicates weakening on days 4 and 5
(although it is still well above most of the models). This is a
low-confidence intensity forecast, and additional adjustments are
likely in future advisories.

The small size of the circulation and its projected motion away from
Mexico does not require tropical storm warnings or watches at this
time. However, only a slight deviation to the right of the forecast
track would bring stronger winds closer to the coast, which would
require the issuance of a tropical storm warning. Regardless of the
winds, heavy rainfall will be the primary threat along the coast of
southwestern Mexico due to the system's slow motion, and flash
flooding will be possible in mountainous areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 17.5N 104.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 17.7N 104.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 17.7N 104.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 17.8N 105.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 17.9N 105.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 18.4N 106.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 19.3N 108.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 20/0000Z 19.6N 108.9W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-10-15 03:33

WTPZ32 KNHC 150236 RRA
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO-E ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222018
1000 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2018

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...
...............HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 104.3W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWENTY-TWO-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 104.3
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH
(11 KM/H). THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST, OR EVEN MEANDER, DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8

2018-10-15 03:33

WTPZ32 KNHC 150236
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-Two-E Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222018
1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...
...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 104.3W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Twenty-Two-E was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 104.3
West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph
(11 km/h). The depression is expected to drift toward the
west-northwest, or even meander, during the next several days. On
the forecast track, the center of the depression is forecast to
remain offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8
inches through Tuesday along the coastal sections of the Mexican
states of Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. These rains may produce
life-threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-10-15 03:33

WTPZ22 KNHC 150235
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222018
0300 UTC MON OCT 15 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 104.3W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 104.3W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 104.2W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.7N 104.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.7N 104.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.8N 105.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.9N 105.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 18.4N 106.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 19.3N 108.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 19.6N 108.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 104.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

..
FORECASTER BERG

2018-10-14 21:33

WTPZ42 KNHC 142033 RRA
TCDEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222018
400 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2018

ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY, GOOD CYCLONIC ROTATION IS NOTED IN THE SMALL CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS, AND AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER BASED ON WEAK CIRRUS OUTFLOW NOW OCCURING IN ALL
QUADRANTS. A FORTUITOUS SHIP LOCATED ABOUT 30 NMI WEST OF THE
CENTER AT 1800Z REPORTED A 30-KT NORTHERLY WIND AND 1010.7 MB
PRESSURE, WHICH HELPED TO LOCATE THE CENTER, AND ALSO TO ESTIMATE
THE INTENSITY AND CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY THEREFORE REMAINS 30 KT, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0/30 KT FROM TAFB AND A 1542Z SCATSAT PASS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/06 KT. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES THE PREVIOUS MOTION TREND BY ONLY MOVING THE CYCLONE
SLOWLY WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT LESS THAN 5 KT FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS DUE TO THE DEPRESSION REMAINING EMBEDDED WITHIN A BREAK IN
A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
AND LOW LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST ON DAYS 4 AND 5, WHICH
WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE TO GRADUALLY BUILD WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE EASTERLY FLOW
SOUTH OF THE RIDGE, HELPING TO NUDGE THE CYCLONE WESTWARD AT A
SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED. THE NEW NHC FORECAST TRACK IS A
LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AFTER 48 H, AND LIES

2018-10-14 21:33

WTPZ42 KNHC 142033
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Twenty-Two-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222018
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018

Although convective activity has decreased since the previous
advisory, good cyclonic rotation is noted in the small convective
elements, and an upper-level anticyclone has developed over the
low-level center based on weak cirrus outflow now occuring in all
quadrants. A fortuitous ship located about 30 nmi west of the
center at 1800Z reported a 30-kt northerly wind and 1010.7 mb
pressure, which helped to locate the center, and also to estimate
the intensity and central pressure of the depression. The initial
intensity therefore remains 30 kt, which is supported by a satellite
intensity estimate of T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and a 1542Z ScatSat pass.

The initial motion estimate is 295/06 kt. The latest model guidance
continues the previous motion trend by only moving the cyclone
slowly westward to west-southwestward at less than 5 kt for the next
few days due to the depression remaining embedded within a break in
a deep-layer subtropical ridge that extends southwestward from
central Mexico into the eastern Pacific. A broad upper-level trough
and low located over the southwestern United States is forecast to
weaken and lift out slowly to the northeast on days 4 and 5, which
will allow the ridge to gradually build westward to the north of the
cyclone. This should result in an increase in the easterly flow
south of the ridge, helping to nudge the cyclone westward at a
slightly faster forward speed. The new NHC forecast track is a
little north of the previous advisory track after 48 h, and lies
between the consensus models TVCE and HCCA.

The cyclone is forecast to be embedded within an environment that is
somewhat conducive for at least gradual strengthening to occur. The
cyclone's small circulation and a radius of maximum winds (RMW) of
only 25-30 nmi would suggest that rapid intensification could
occur since the wind shear is expected to decrease to around 5 kt
after 36 hours. However, proximity to land is expected to
continue to disrupt the outer circulation and also create downslope
conditions off the coastal mountains, which will produce occasional
intrusions of dry air. The result is that only modest strengthening
is forecast for the next 5 days, and the official intensity
forecast is similar to a blend of the HCCA and IVCN intensity
consensus models.

The small size of the circulation and its projected motion away from
Mexico does not require tropical storm warnings or watches at this
time. However, only a slight deviation to the right of the forecast
track would bring stronger winds closer to the coast, which would
require the issuance of a tropical storm warning. Regardless of the
winds, heavy rainfall will be the primary threat along the coast of
southwestern Mexico due to the system's slow motion, and flash
flooding will be possible in mountainous areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 17.4N 104.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 17.4N 104.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 17.4N 104.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 17.4N 104.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 17.3N 105.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 17.4N 106.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 17.9N 108.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 19/1800Z 18.5N 108.8W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-14 21:33

WTPZ32 KNHC 142033 RRA
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222018
400 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2018

...DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO...
................HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 104.1W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWENTY-TWO-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 104.1
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH
(11 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM
MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A SHIP LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION
RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 35 MPH (55 KM/H). GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT OR
EARLY MONDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).

2018-10-14 21:33

WTPZ32 KNHC 142033
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-Two-E Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222018
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018

...DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 104.1W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Twenty-Two-E was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 104.1
West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph
(11 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn
toward the west to west-southwest at a slower forward speed is
forecast to begin later tonight and continue into Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the depression is expected to slowly move away from
Mexico over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. A ship located just west of the center of the depression
recently reported a sustained wind of 35 mph (55 km/h). Gradual
strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later tonight or
early Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8
inches along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of
Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. These rains may produce
life-threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-14 21:33

WTPZ22 KNHC 142032
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222018
2100 UTC SUN OCT 14 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 104.1W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 104.1W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 103.8W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.4N 104.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.4N 104.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.4N 104.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.3N 105.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.4N 106.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 17.9N 108.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 18.5N 108.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 104.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

..
FORECASTER STEWART

2018-10-14 15:33

WTPZ42 KNHC 141500 RRA
TCDEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222018
1000 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2018

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT THE NHC HAS BEEN TRACKING FOR THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS FINALLY ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION
TO BE DESIGNATED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION, WHICH IS LOCATED LESS THAN
100 NMI OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE
CENTER HAVE RECENTLY BEEN AS COLD AS -90C, AND SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE T1.5/25 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT BASED ON AN EARLIER OSCAT/SCATSAT
SCATTEROMETER PASS THAT HAD A FEW UNCONTAMINATED WIND VECTORS
LOCATED JUST NORTH OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER,
WHICH IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S ASCAT PASSES.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/05 KT. THE SMALL CYCLONE IS
FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS TO MOVE ONLY SLOWLY
WESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD AT LESS THAN 5 KT FOR THE NEW FEW DAYS DUE
TO THE SYSTEM BEING CAUGHT IN A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MEXICO SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
BY DAYS 4 AND 5, THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM, ACTING TO NUDGE THE CYCLONE WESTWARD AT A
SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK LIES BETWEEN
THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCE AND HCCA.

THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING OF THE CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS SHIPS AND LGEM AREN'T OVERLY ENTHUSED
WITH INTENSIFYING THE SYSTEM, BUT THAT IS MAINLY DUE TO THE HIGH
SHEAR VALUES CALCULATED FROM THE VERY POLEWARD TABM BETA-ADVECTION

2018-10-14 15:33

WTPZ42 KNHC 141500
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Twenty-Two-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222018
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018

A small low pressure system that the NHC has been tracking for the
past couple of days has finally acquired enough organized convection
to be designated a tropical depression, which is located less than
100 nmi off the southwestern coast of Mexico. Cloud tops near the
center have recently been as cold as -90C, and satellite intensity
estimates are T1.5/25 kt from both TAFB and SAB. The initial
intensity is set at 30 kt based on an earlier OSCAT/ScatSat
scatterometer pass that had a few uncontaminated wind vectors
located just north of a well-defined low-level circulation center,
which is similar to yesterday's ASCAT passes.

The initial motion estimate is 295/05 kt. The small cyclone is
forecast by the global and regional models to move only slowly
westward to southwestward at less than 5 kt for the new few days due
to the system being caught in a break in the subtropical ridge that
extends from central Mexico southwestward into the eastern Pacific.
By days 4 and 5, the ridge is forecast to build westward to the
north of the system, acting to nudge the cyclone westward at a
slightly faster forward speed. The NHC forecast track lies between
the consensus models TVCE and HCCA.

The environment is expected to be somewhat conducive for gradual
strengthening of the cyclone throughout the forecast period. The
statistical-dynamical models SHIPS and LGEM aren't overly enthused
with intensifying the system, but that is mainly due to the high
shear values calculated from the very poleward TABM beta-advection
model, which recurves the cyclone into strong mid-latitude flow on
days 4 and 5. In contrast, the HWRF model keeps the system farther
south and gradually develops the cyclone into a hurricane by 72 h,
and then continues with slight strengthening beyond that time. Given
that the shear is expected to only be around 10 kt from an easterly
to southeasterly direction and water temperatures near 30 deg C
beneath the small cyclone, some gradual strengthening appears to be
plausible with only some slight land interaction being the primary
modulating factor until the system moves farther away from Mexico in
about 72 h.

Based on the small size of the circulation and its projected motion
away from Mexico, tropical storm warnings and watches are not
required at this time. However, only a slight deviation to the right
of the forecast track would bring stronger winds closer to the
coast, which would require the issuance of a tropical storm warning.
Regardless, heavy rainfall will be the primary threat along the
coast of southwestern Mexico due to the system's slow motion, and
flash flooding will be a possibility in mountainous areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 17.0N 102.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 17.2N 103.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 17.2N 103.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 17.0N 103.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 16.6N 103.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 16.3N 104.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 16.5N 105.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 19/1200Z 16.9N 107.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-14 15:33

WTPZ32 KNHC 141459 RRA
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222018
1000 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2018

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...
........HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 102.8W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWENTY-TWO-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 102.8
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH
(9 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED FORECAST TO
BEGIN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM MEXICO OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT OR
EARLY MONDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN

2018-10-14 15:33

WTPZ32 KNHC 141459
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-Two-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222018
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 102.8W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Twenty-Two-E was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 102.8
West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph
(9 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn
toward the west and southwest at a slower forward speed forecast to
begin tonight and continue into Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
depression is expected to slowly move away from Mexico over the
next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later tonight or
early Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum of 8 inches
along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Michoacan,
Colima and Jalisco. These rains may produce life-threatening flash
floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-14 15:33

WTPZ22 KNHC 141458
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222018
1500 UTC SUN OCT 14 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 102.8W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 102.8W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 102.6W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.2N 103.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.2N 103.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.0N 103.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.6N 103.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.3N 104.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 16.5N 105.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 16.9N 107.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 102.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

..
FORECASTER STEWART