Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for VICENTE-18
Off-shore

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2018-10-23 15:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 231433
TCDEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE VICENTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
1000 AM CDT TUE OCT 23 2018

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT VICENTE CROSSED THE COAST OF THE
MEXICAN STATE OF MICHOACAN A LITTLE WHILE AGO, AND IS NOW INLAND.
THE SYSTEM, IF IN FACT IT STILL HAS A CENTER, LACKS SUFFICIENT
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THEREFORE VICENTE HAS BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW, AND
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.

THE MOTION IS AROUND 330/10 KT. A 12-HOUR FORECAST POINT IS SHOWN
FOR CONTINUITY, BUT THE CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY HAVE DISSIPATED BY
THAT TIME. VICENTE'S REMNANTS, ALONG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AROUND THE LARGER CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE WILLA, WILL PROBABLY
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO INTO WEDNESDAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 18.4N 102.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
12H 24/0000Z 19.5N 103.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER PASCH

2018-10-23 15:31

WTPZ33 KNHC 231432 RRA
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE VICENTE ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
1000 AM CDT TUE OCT 23 2018

...VICENTE DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW WHILE MOVING INLAND OVER
THE MEXICAN STATE OF MICHOACAN...
....THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 102.4W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
VICENTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 102.4 WEST.
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR
12 MPH (19 KM/H) AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TODAY, BRINGING THE SYSTEM FARTHER INLAND OVER MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH (45 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB (29.77 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: VICENTE'S REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 6
INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES THROUGH TODAY OVER
PORTIONS OF GUERRERO, MICHOACAN, COLIMA, AND JALISCO IN MEXICO.
THIS RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND
LANDSLIDES WITHIN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

2018-10-23 15:31

WTPZ33 KNHC 231432
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Vicente Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018
1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...VICENTE DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW WHILE MOVING INLAND OVER
THE MEXICAN STATE OF MICHOACAN...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 102.4W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Vicente was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 102.4 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northwest near
12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue
today, bringing the system farther inland over Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with
higher gusts. The system is expected to dissipate later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Vicente's remnants are expected to produce 3 to 6
inches of rain with local amounts to 10 inches through today over
portions of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco in Mexico.
This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides within mountainous terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

2018-10-23 15:31

WTPZ23 KNHC 231432
TCMEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE VICENTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
1500 UTC TUE OCT 23 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 102.4W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 102.4W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 102.2W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 19.5N 103.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 102.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

..
FORECASTER PASCH

2018-10-23 15:31

WTPN32 PHNC 231600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23E (VICENTE) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23E (VICENTE) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 17.8N 102.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 102.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 19.5N 103.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
231600Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 102.5W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23E (VICENTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1203 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 7 FEET.REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24E
(WILLA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-10-23 09:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 230838
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICENTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
400 AM CDT TUE OCT 23 2018

CELLS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL FORMING NEAR
VICENTE'S CENTER, BUT OVERALL THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS
CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 0418 UTC SHOWED
MAXIMUM WINDS OF AROUND 25 KT, SO ASSUMING SOME UNDERSAMPLING OF
THE SMALL CIRCULATION, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT.

WINDSAT AND ASCAT DATA REVEALED THAT VICENTE'S CENTER HAD MOVED A
LITTLE TO THE EAST OF EARLIER FIXES, AND THE DEPRESSION'S INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 330/10 KT. THIS MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE AS VICENTE GETS DRAWN UP BETWEEN HURRICANE WILLA'S
CIRCULATION AND A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO,
AND THE DEPRESSION IS THEREFORE FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE
MEXICAN STATE OF MICHOACAN LATER TODAY. ONCE INLAND, THE TINY
CIRCULATION IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. A 12-HOUR REMNANT LOW POSITION IS PROVIDED FOR
CONTINUITY TO SHOW A TRACK MOVING INLAND, BUT IN ALL LIKELIHOOD
VICENTE WILL HAVE DISSIPATED BY THAT TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 17.2N 102.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 19.2N 103.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER BERG

2018-10-23 09:31

WTPZ33 KNHC 230837 RRA
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICENTE ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
400 AM CDT TUE OCT 23 2018

...VICENTE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
....EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND AND DISSIPATE OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF
MICHOACAN LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 102.0W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF VICENTE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICENTE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 102.0 WEST. VICENTE
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, THE CENTER OF VICENTE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE
MEXICAN STATE OF MICHOACAN LATER TODAY.

SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. VICENTE
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AFTER IT HAS MOVED
INLAND OVER MEXICO.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: VICENTE OR ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 6

2018-10-23 09:31

WTPZ33 KNHC 230837
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Vicente Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018
400 AM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...VICENTE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND AND DISSIPATE OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF
MICHOACAN LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 102.0W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the
progress of Vicente.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Vicente
was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 102.0 West. Vicente
is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue today. On the forecast
track, the center of Vicente is expected to move inland over the
Mexican state of Michoacan later today.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Vicente
is expected to dissipate later today or tonight after it has moved
inland over Mexico.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Vicente or its remnants are expected to produce 3 to 6
inches of rain with local amounts to 10 inches through today over
portions of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco in Mexico.
This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides within mountainous terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-10-23 09:31

WTPZ23 KNHC 230837
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICENTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
0900 UTC TUE OCT 23 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF VICENTE.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 102.0W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 102.0W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 101.7W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.2N 103.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 102.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

..
FORECASTER BERG

2018-10-23 09:31

WTPN32 PHNC 231000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23E (VICENTE) WARNING NR 016
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 23E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 16.8N 101.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8N 101.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 19.2N 103.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
231000Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 102.2W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23E (VICENTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1267 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
230600Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 24E (WILLA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-10-23 04:31

WTPN32 PHNC 230400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23E (VICENTE) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 15.9N 101.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 101.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 17.9N 103.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 19.5N 104.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
230400Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 102.1W.
TROPICAL STORM 23E (VICENTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1314 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z
IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231000Z, 231600Z AND 232200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24E (WILLA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-10-23 03:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 230249
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM VICENTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
1000 PM CDT MON OCT 22 2018

ALTHOUGH CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY IS UNIMPRESSIVE TONIGHT, A
PAIR OF MICROWAVE PASSES INDICATE THERE IS PROBABLY STILL A
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINING WITH VICENTE. THE CENTER IS LOCATED
BETWEEN THE MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE SOUTH, AND SPORADIC CELLS
NORTH OF THE CENTER. ALL OF THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT I HAVE
SUGGEST THE INTENSITY IS NO LOWER THAN 35 KT, SO THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED WILL STAY 35 KT. CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WILL VERY
LIKELY CAUSE VICENTE TO WEAKEN SOON, AND THIS IS THE SOLUTION
PRESENTED BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST SHOWS
VICENTE COMING ASHORE AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMORROW OVER MEXICO,
MOST SIMILAR TO THE GFS MODEL.

VICENTE IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD, OR 320/11 KT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
MOVE A LITTLE FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT BETWEEN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION OF WILLA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A BIT EAST OF
THE PREVIOUS ONE, IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. THE 24-HOUR
POSITION IS SIMPLY A PLACEHOLDER TO GET VICENTE INLAND BECAUSE THE
CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY DISSIPATE NOT LONG AFTER IT REACHES LAND DUE
TO THE HIGH TERRAIN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 16.4N 102.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 17.9N 103.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 19.5N 104.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-10-23 03:31

WTPZ33 KNHC 230248 RRA
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM VICENTE ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
1000 PM CDT MON OCT 22 2018

...VICENTE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 102.0W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VICENTE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 102.0 WEST. VICENTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H). THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LANDFALL ON TUESDAY IN
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND VICENTE IS EXPECTED TO BE A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AT LANDFALL ON TUESDAY, THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE LATE THAT DAY OVER THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: VICENTE OR ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 6
INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY

2018-10-23 03:31

WTPZ33 KNHC 230248
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Vicente Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018
1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018

...VICENTE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 102.0W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico
should monitor the progress of Vicente.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicente was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 102.0 West. Vicente is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue through landfall on Tuesday in
southwestern Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast, and Vicente is expected to be a tropical
depression at landfall on Tuesday, then rapidly weaken and
dissipate late that day over the Sierra Madre mountains.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Vicente or its remnants are expected to produce 3 to 6
inches of rain with local amounts to 10 inches through Tuesday
over portions of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco in Mexico.
This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides within mountainous terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

2018-10-23 03:31

WTPZ23 KNHC 230248
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM VICENTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
0300 UTC TUE OCT 23 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VICENTE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 102.0W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 30SE 30SW 15NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 102.0W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 101.6W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.9N 103.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 19.5N 104.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 102.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

..
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-10-22 22:31

WTPN32 PHNC 222200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23E (VICENTE) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 15.1N 101.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 101.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 16.8N 102.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 19.0N 104.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
222200Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 101.6W.
TROPICAL STORM 23E (VICENTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1369 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z
IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230400Z, 231000Z AND 231600Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 24E (WILLA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-10-22 21:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 222033 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM VICENTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
400 PM CDT MON OCT 22 2018

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT VICENTE CONTINUES TO LOSE
ORGANIZATION. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN SPORADIC AND IS GENERALLY
LIMITED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE STORM'S CENTER. UNFORTUNATELY,
THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS MISSED THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM, SO WE
ARE UNABLE TO VERIFY IF VICENTE'S CIRCULATION IS STILL CLOSED. DUE
TO VICENTE'S DETERIORATING SATELLITE PRESENTATION, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KT, WHICH IS A BLEND OF DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. THIS INTENSITY
ESTIMATE MAY BE GENEROUS, HOWEVER.

ALTHOUGH SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR VICENTE ARE QUITE WARM (29
DEGREES C), THE STORM CONTINUES TO BE NEGATIVELY AFFECTED BY
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MOREOVER, THE CYCLONE'S SMALL
SIZE HAS LIKELY MADE IT MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO SHEAR. ALTHOUGH THE
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE THE NEXT DAY OR SO,
THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE WILLA AND THE
INTERACTION WITH LAND IS LIKELY TO CAUSE THE STORM TO DISSIPATE IN
24-36 HOURS, OR LESS. THE MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE MODELS
DISSIPATE VICENTE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CALLS FOR DISSIPATION BY 36 H. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT, GIVEN THE
CURRENT TENUOUS STATE OF VICENTE, THE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE AT ANY
TIME.

VICENTE'S CURRENT MOTION IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 300/10 KT. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST
WHILE MOVING BETWEEN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO

2018-10-22 21:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 222033
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018

Satellite imagery indicates that Vicente continues to lose
organization. Deep convection has been sporadic and is generally
limited to the east and south of the storm's center. Unfortunately,
the most recent ASCAT pass missed the center of the system, so we
are unable to verify if Vicente's circulation is still closed. Due
to Vicente's deteriorating satellite presentation, the initial
intensity has been lowered to 35 kt, which is a blend of Dvorak
Current Intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. This intensity
estimate may be generous, however.

Although sea-surface temperatures near Vicente are quite warm (29
degrees C), the storm continues to be negatively affected by
northeasterly vertical wind shear. Moreover, the cyclone's small
size has likely made it more susceptible to shear. Although the
shear is forecast to weaken slightly over the the next day or so,
the influence of the large circulation of Hurricane Willa and the
interaction with land is likely to cause the storm to dissipate in
24-36 hours, or less. The majority of the dynamical guidance models
dissipate Vicente by tomorrow afternoon and the official forecast
calls for dissipation by 36 h. It should be noted that, given the
current tenuous state of Vicente, the system could dissipate at any
time.

Vicente's current motion is west-northwestward, or 300/10 kt. The
system is forecast to turn toward the northwest and north-northwest
while moving between the mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico
and the southeastern portion of the circulation of Willa. The
official track forecast is a little faster than the previous one
and roughly in the middle of the model guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 15.4N 101.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 16.8N 102.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 19.0N 104.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

2018-10-22 21:31

WTPZ33 KNHC 222032 RRA
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM VICENTE ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
400 PM CDT MON OCT 22 2018

...VICENTE BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...
....EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SOON...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 101.5W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VICENTE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 101.5 WEST. VICENTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND A TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF
VICENTE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED, AND VICENTE IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: VICENTE OR ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 6

2018-10-22 21:31

WTPZ33 KNHC 222032
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Vicente Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018

...VICENTE BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...
...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SOON...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 101.5W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico
should monitor the progress of Vicente.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicente was
located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 101.5 West. Vicente is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a turn
to the northwest is expected later today followed by a turn to the
north-northwest on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Vicente is expected to be near the southwestern coast of Mexico
on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected, and Vicente is
forecast to dissipate within the next day or so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Vicente or its remnants are expected to produce 3 to 6
inches of rain with local amounts to 10 inches through Wednesday
over portions of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco in Mexico.
This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides within mountainous terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

2018-10-22 21:31

WTPZ23 KNHC 222032
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM VICENTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
2100 UTC MON OCT 22 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VICENTE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 101.5W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 35SE 45SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 101.5W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 101.1W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.8N 102.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.0N 104.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 101.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

..
FORECASTER PASCH

2018-10-22 16:34

WTPN32 PHNC 221600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23E (VICENTE) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 14.5N 100.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 100.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 15.8N 101.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 17.4N 103.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 18.9N 104.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 20.3N 104.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
221600Z POSITION NEAR 14.9N 100.8W.
TROPICAL STORM 23E (VICENTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1426 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
221200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222200Z, 230400Z, 231000Z AND
231600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24E (WILLA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-10-22 15:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 221445 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM VICENTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
1000 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2018

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA THIS MORNING ARE INDICATING
THAT THE EARLY MORNING RE-STRENGTHENING OF VICENTE HAS ENDED. THE
SYSTEM APPEARS ELONGATED, WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BECOMING
INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. RADAR IMAGERY FROM ACAPULCO,
MEXICO, DOES NOT SUGGEST A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS
TIME. THE AVERAGES OF THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES FROM SAB AND
TAFB SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT, WHICH MAY BE A LITTLE
GENEROUS.

MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE
CYCLONE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT ONGOING
STEADY WEAKENING. THE GFS, HWRF, AND HMON MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE
DISSIPATING TONIGHT, WITH SOME OF THE OTHER GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY UNTIL LANDFALL. GIVEN THE
CURRENT DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE, A WEAKENING TREND APPEARS TO BE
THE MOST REALISTIC SCENARIO, WITH VICENTE FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF THE FORECAST INTENSITY, THE
PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, WHICH COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODING.

VICENTE APPEARS TO HAVE BEGUN A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST, AND
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 290/10 KT AS THE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO ROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER MEXICO. AS THE CYCLONE ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE LATER TODAY AND TUESDAY, A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN

2018-10-22 15:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 221445
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018
1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018

Satellite imagery and microwave data this morning are indicating
that the early morning re-strengthening of Vicente has ended. The
system appears elongated, with the low-level center becoming
increasingly difficult to locate. Radar imagery from Acapulco,
Mexico, does not suggest a well-organized tropical cyclone at this
time. The averages of the subjective Dvorak analyses from SAB and
TAFB support an initial intensity of 40 kt, which may be a little
generous.

Moderate northeasterly shear is forecast to continue over the
cyclone the next couple of days which should support ongoing
steady weakening. The GFS, HWRF, and HMON models show the cyclone
dissipating tonight, with some of the other global model guidance
showing little change in intensity until landfall. Given the
current disorganized appearance, a weakening trend appears to be
the most realistic scenario, with Vicente forecast to weaken to a
tropical depression before it makes landfall over southwestern
Mexico in about 36 hours. Regardless of the forecast intensity, the
primary hazard will be heavy rainfall across portions of southern
and southwestern Mexico, which could cause life-threatening flash
flooding.

Vicente appears to have begun a turn to the west-northwest, and
the initial motion is now estimated to be 290/10 kt as the system
begins to round the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge
over Mexico. As the cyclone rounds the western periphery of the
ridge later today and Tuesday, a turn to the northwest and then
north-northwest is expected. The latest NHC forecast track is
similar, and just slightly to the right of the previous one,
and is near the tightly clustered model guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 14.9N 100.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 15.8N 101.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 17.4N 103.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 18.9N 104.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
48H 24/1200Z 20.3N 104.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Latto

2018-10-22 15:31

WTPZ33 KNHC 221444 RRA
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM VICENTE ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
1000 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2018

...VICENTE LOOKING LESS ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...
....STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 100.8W
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VICENTE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 100.8 WEST. VICENTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H) AND A TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF
VICENTE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND VICENTE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BY TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. THE CYCLONE'S CIRCULATION IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO BY
WEDNESDAY.

VICENTE IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS

2018-10-22 15:31

WTPZ33 KNHC 221444
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Vicente Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018
1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018

...VICENTE LOOKING LESS ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...
...STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 100.8W
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico
should monitor the progress of Vicente.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicente was
located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 100.8 West. Vicente is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and a turn
to the northwest is expected today followed by a turn to the
north-northwest on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Vicente is expected to approach the southwestern coast of Mexico
on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast, and Vicente is expected to become a tropical
depression by tonight or Tuesday. The cyclone's circulation is
expected to dissipate near the southwestern coast of Mexico by
Wednesday.

Vicente is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Vicente or its remnants are expected to produce 3 to 6
inches of rain with local amounts to 10 inches through Wednesday
over portions of Guerrero, Michoaca, Colima, and Jalisco in Mexico.
This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides within mountainous terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Latto

2018-10-22 15:31

WTPZ23 KNHC 221444
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM VICENTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
1500 UTC MON OCT 22 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VICENTE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 100.8W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 100.8W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 100.3W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.8N 101.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 0SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.4N 103.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 18.9N 104.0W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 20.3N 104.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 100.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

..
FORECASTER PASCH/LATTO

2018-10-22 10:31

WTPN32 PHNC 221000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23E (VICENTE) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 13.9N 99.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 99.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 14.8N 100.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 16.1N 102.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 17.7N 103.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 19.5N 104.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
221000Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 99.8W.
TROPICAL STORM 23E (VICENTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1490 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 11
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221600Z, 222200Z, 230400Z AND 231000Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 24E (WILLA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-10-22 09:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 220836 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM VICENTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
400 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2018

VICENTE'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE
SURFACE CENTER, AND A DEVELOPING CURVED BAND WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
CLOUD TOPS OF -80C IS WRAPPING AROUND NEARLY 70 PERCENT OF THE
CYCLONE'S CIRCULATION. A SATCON ANALYSIS, SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB, AND AN EARLIER 0325
UTC ISRO SCATSAT-1 OVERPASS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY INCREASE TO
40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

DESPITE THIS TEMPORARY STRENGTHENING INTERLUDE, MODEST NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR AS INDICATED BY THE STATISTICAL INTENSITY AIDS AND THE
UW-CIMSS SHEAR PRODUCT SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING SOON. IN FACT, MOST
OF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE WITH DISSIPATION IN 36 HOURS, OR
SHOW THE CYCLONE REACHING THE MEXICO COASTLINE AROUND THE 48-HOUR
PERIOD AS A DEPRESSION. ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS SUPPORT
DISSIPATION OVER WATER, THE NHC FORECAST WILL REFLECT LANDFALL AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES. REGARDLESS OF THE
FORECAST INTENSITY SCENARIOS, THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, WHICH
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WESTWARD, OR 275/9 KT, WITHIN
SOUTHEAST TO EASTERLY STEERING FLOW PRODUCED BY A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO. VICENTE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN TO WESTERN

2018-10-22 09:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 220836
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018
400 AM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018

Vicente's cloud pattern has become better organized during the past
several hours. A burst of deep convection has developed near the
surface center, and a developing curved band with associated cold
cloud tops of -80C is wrapping around nearly 70 percent of the
cyclone's circulation. A SATCON analysis, subjective and objective
satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and an earlier 0325
UTC ISRO ScatSAT-1 overpass support an initial intensity increase to
40 kt for this advisory.

Despite this temporary strengthening interlude, modest northeasterly
shear as indicated by the statistical intensity aids and the
UW-CIMSS shear product should induce weakening soon. In fact, most
of the large-scale models agree with dissipation in 36 hours, or
show the cyclone reaching the Mexico coastline around the 48-hour
period as a depression. Although the majority of the models support
dissipation over water, the NHC forecast will reflect landfall as a
tropical depression for continuity purposes. Regardless of the
forecast intensity scenarios, the primary hazard will be heavy
rainfall across portions of southern and southwestern Mexico, which
could cause life-threatening flash flooding.

The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 275/9 kt, within
southeast to easterly steering flow produced by a mid-tropospheric
ridge extending westward over southern Mexico from the central Gulf
of Mexico. Vicente is expected to round the southwestern to western
periphery of the aforementioned ridge during the next 36 hours, or
prior to dissipation. The track forecast is a little slower than
the previous advisory, and is based on a blend of the Florida State
Superensemble and the TVCN multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 14.1N 99.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 14.8N 100.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 16.1N 102.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 17.7N 103.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 19.5N 104.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-10-22 09:31

WTPZ33 KNHC 220835 RRA
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM VICENTE ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
400 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2018

...VICENTE A LITTLE STRONGER...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 99.7W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VICENTE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 99.7 WEST. VICENTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TURN IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST BY LATE TONIGHT. A NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION IS FORECAST ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF
VICENTE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY.
AFTERWARD, WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND VICENTE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. THE CYCLONE'S
CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF

2018-10-22 09:31

WTPZ33 KNHC 220835
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Vicente Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018
400 AM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018

...VICENTE A LITTLE STRONGER...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 99.7W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico
should monitor the progress of Vicente.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicente was
located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 99.7 West. Vicente is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A west-northwestward
turn is expected later this morning, followed by a turn toward the
northwest by late tonight. A northwestward to north-northwestward
motion is forecast on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Vicente is expected to approach the southwestern coast of Mexico
on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today.
Afterward, weakening is forecast, and Vicente is expected to become
a tropical depression by tonight or Tuesday. The cyclone's
circulation is expected to dissipate near the southwestern coast of
Mexico by Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Vicente or its remnants are expected to produce 3 to 6
inches of rain with local amounts to 10 inches through Wednesday
over portions of Guerrero, Michoaca, Colima, and Jalisco in Mexico.
This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides within mountainous terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

2018-10-22 09:31

WTPZ23 KNHC 220835
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM VICENTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
0900 UTC MON OCT 22 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VICENTE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 99.7W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 99.7W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 99.3W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 14.8N 100.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.1N 102.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 17.7N 103.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 19.5N 104.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 99.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

..
FORECASTER ROBERTS

2018-10-22 03:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 220234 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM VICENTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
1000 PM CDT SUN OCT 21 2018

VICENTE'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION HASN'T CHANGED MUCH, WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A RATHER
ELONGATED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS REMAIN
UNCHANGED, SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT BASED ON
CONTINUITY WITH THE EARLIER ASCAT PASS. NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING VICENTE, AND THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
THE CYCLONE DISSIPATING WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE NHC
FORECAST BRINGS VICENTE NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AS A
DEPRESSION IN 36 HOURS AND INLAND AS A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS, BUT
IT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISING IF THE SMALL CYCLONE DISSIPATED SOONER.
REGARDLESS OF THE EVENTUAL DETAILS OF VICENTE'S DEMISE, THE MAIN
HAZARD WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, WHICH COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODING.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS SOUTH OF DUE WEST OR 260/09.
VICENTE SHOULD BE STEERED AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN EDGE
OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
DISSIPATION. THE SPREAD IN THE MODEL TRACKERS REMAINS QUITE LARGE,
AS THEY ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY TRACKING THE SMALL CYCLONE. FOR THIS
CYCLE, THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 12 TO 24 HOURS DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND
MOTION. AFTER THAT TIME, THE NHC TRACK GENERALLY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF
THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST AND THE FIELDS FROM THE LATEST GLOBAL
MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

2018-10-22 03:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 220234
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018
1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018

Vicente's satellite presentation hasn't changed much, with the
low-level circulation located near the northeastern edge of a rather
elongated area of deep convection. Satellite classifications remain
unchanged, so the initial intensity is held at 35 kt based on
continuity with the earlier ASCAT pass. Northeasterly shear is
expected to continue affecting Vicente, and the global models show
the cyclone dissipating within the next 24 to 48 hours. The NHC
forecast brings Vicente near the coast of southwestern Mexico as a
depression in 36 hours and inland as a remnant low by 48 hours, but
it wouldn't be surprising if the small cyclone dissipated sooner.
Regardless of the eventual details of Vicente's demise, the main
hazard will be heavy rainfall across portions of southern and
southwestern Mexico, which could cause life-threatening flash
flooding.

The initial motion estimate remains south of due west or 260/09.
Vicente should be steered around the southwestern and western edge
of a mid-level ridge centered over the Gulf of Mexico through
dissipation. The spread in the model trackers remains quite large,
as they are having difficulty tracking the small cyclone. For this
cycle, the new NHC forecast has been adjusted to the left of the
previous one through 12 to 24 hours due to the initial position and
motion. After that time, the NHC track generally follows a blend of
the previous official forecast and the fields from the latest global
models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 13.9N 98.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 14.3N 99.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 15.7N 101.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 17.5N 103.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 18.8N 103.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

2018-10-22 03:31

WTPZ33 KNHC 220233 RRA
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM VICENTE ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
1000 PM CDT SUN OCT 21 2018

...VICENTE AND ITS REMNANTS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 98.7W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VICENTE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 98.7 WEST. VICENTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TURN IS EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST BY LATE MONDAY. A NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION IS FORECAST ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF
VICENTE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND VICENTE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. VICENTE'S
CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM)

2018-10-22 03:31

WTPZ33 KNHC 220233
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Vicente Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018
1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018

...VICENTE AND ITS REMNANTS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 98.7W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico
should monitor the progress of Vicente.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicente was
located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 98.7 West. Vicente is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A west-northwestward
turn is expected early Monday, followed by a turn toward the
northwest by late Monday. A northwestward to north-northwestward
motion is forecast on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Vicente is expected to approach the southwestern coast of Mexico
on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast, and Vicente is expected to become a
tropical depression by Monday night or Tuesday. Vicente's
circulation is expected to dissipate near the southwestern coast of
Mexico by Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Vicente or its remnants are expected to produce 3 to 6
inches of rain with local amounts to 10 inches through Wednesday
over portions of Guerrero, Michoaca, Colima, and Jalisco in Mexico.
This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides within mountainous terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

2018-10-22 03:31

WTPZ23 KNHC 220233
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM VICENTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
0300 UTC MON OCT 22 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VICENTE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 98.7W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 0SW 15NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 98.7W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 98.3W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 14.3N 99.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.7N 101.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.5N 103.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 18.8N 103.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 98.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

..
FORECASTER BRENNAN

2018-10-22 03:31

WTPN32 PHNC 220400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23E (VICENTE) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 14.0N 98.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N 98.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 14.3N 99.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 15.7N 101.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 17.5N 103.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 18.8N 103.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
220400Z POSITION NEAR 14.1N 98.8W.
TROPICAL STORM 23E (VICENTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1521 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
220000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221000Z, 221600Z, 222200Z AND
230400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24E (WILLA) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-10-21 22:31

WTPN32 PHNC 212200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23E (VICENTE) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 14.2N 97.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 97.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 14.2N 99.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 15.2N 101.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 16.7N 102.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 18.0N 103.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 20.5N 104.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
212200Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 98.0W.
TROPICAL STORM 23E (VICENTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1546 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
211800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220400Z, 221000Z, 221600Z AND
222200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24E (WILLA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-10-21 21:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 212036
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM VICENTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
400 PM CDT SUN OCT 21 2018

VICENTE'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED TODAY, WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER BECOMING EXPOSED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A
RAGGED-LOOKING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. DATA FROM A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE
DECREASED TO NEAR 35 KT. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
SHOULD PREVENT STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM AND, IN FACT, THE GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE DISSIPATING IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS, PERHAPS GENEROUSLY, VICENTE WEAKENING TO A
DEPRESSION IN 1-2 DAYS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST INTENSITY MODEL
CONSENSUS. OBVIOUSLY, THE SYSTEM COULD WEAKEN SOONER THAN SHOWN
HERE.

THE STORM HAS BEEN MOVING JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST, OR 260/9
KT. VICENTE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE, BUT IS VERY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS, TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 14.2N 97.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 14.2N 99.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 15.2N 101.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 16.7N 102.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 18.0N 103.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 20.5N 104.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER PASCH

2018-10-21 21:31

WTPZ33 KNHC 212035 RRA
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM VICENTE ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
400 PM CDT SUN OCT 21 2018

...VICENTE WEAKENS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 97.9W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF VICENTE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 97.9 WEST. VICENTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H), AND A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, THE CENTER OF VICENTE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE OR
NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. VICENTE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BY MONDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: VICENTE OR ITS REMNANTS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 6
INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF
GUERRERO, MICHOACA, COLIMA, AND JALISCO IN MEXICO. THIS RAINFALL

2018-10-21 21:31

WTPZ33 KNHC 212035
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Vicente Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018

...VICENTE WEAKENS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 97.9W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southern coast of Mexico should monitor the
progress of Vicente.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicente was
located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 97.9 West. Vicente is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a gradual turn
toward the northwest is expected Monday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Vicente is expected to remain just offshore or
near the southern coast of Mexico through Tuesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Vicente is forecast to weaken to a tropical
depression by Monday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Vicente or its remnants is expected to produce 3 to 6
inches of rain with local amounts to 10 inches over portions of
Guerrero, Michoaca, Colima, and Jalisco in Mexico. This rainfall
could produce life-threatening flash flooding and landslides within
mountainous terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

2018-10-21 21:31

WTPZ23 KNHC 212035
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM VICENTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
2100 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF VICENTE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 97.9W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 97.9W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 97.4W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.2N 99.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.2N 101.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.7N 102.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 18.0N 103.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 20.5N 104.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 97.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

..
FORECASTER PASCH

2018-10-21 15:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 211442
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM VICENTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
1000 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2018

VICENTE REMAINS A TINY TROPICAL CYCLONE, AND ITS CLOUD PATTERN
CONSISTS OF A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. THERE
IS LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES AT THIS TIME. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
SHEAR IS LIKELY TO LIMIT INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. VICENTE SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WHEN IT INTERACTS WITH THE
LAND MASS OF MEXICO BY MID-WEEK.

SATELLITE FIXES AND IMAGES FROM THE PUERTO ANGEL, MEXICO RADAR
INDICATE THAT THE STORM IS STILL MOVING A LITTLE SOUTH OF WEST,
AND THE MOTION ESTIMATE CONTINUES TO BE 255/8 KT. THERE HAS BEEN
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST OR THE REASONING BEHIND IT.
VICENTE SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WHILE
MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE AREA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 14.4N 96.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 14.2N 98.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 14.4N 99.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 15.4N 101.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 16.9N 102.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 19.7N 104.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

..
FORECASTER PASCH

2018-10-21 15:31

WTPZ33 KNHC 211442 RRA
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM VICENTE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
1000 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2018

...VICENTE CONTINUES MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WELL OFFSHORE
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 96.8W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SSW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF VICENTE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 96.8 WEST. VICENTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST IS EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY MONDAY EVENING. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, THE CENTER OF VICENTE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE OR
NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

VICENTE IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
ONLY EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE CENTER.

2018-10-21 15:31

WTPZ33 KNHC 211442
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Vicente Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018

...VICENTE CONTINUES MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WELL OFFSHORE
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 96.8W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SSW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southern coast of Mexico should monitor the
progress of Vicente.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicente was
located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 96.8 West. Vicente is
moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward
the west is expected by this evening, followed by a gradual turn
toward the northwest by Monday evening. On the forecast
track, the center of Vicente is expected to remain just offshore or
near the southern coast of Mexico through Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Vicente is a small tropical cyclone with tropical-storm-force winds
only extending outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Vicente or its remnants is expected to produce 3 to 6
inches of rain with local amounts to 10 inches near the coast of
southern Mexico. This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash
flooding and landslides within mountainous terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

2018-10-21 15:31

WTPZ23 KNHC 211442
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM VICENTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
1500 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF VICENTE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 96.8W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 96.8W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 96.4W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 14.2N 98.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 14.4N 99.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.4N 101.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.9N 102.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 19.7N 104.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 96.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

..
FORECASTER PASCH

2018-10-21 15:31

WTPN32 PHNC 211600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23E (VICENTE) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 14.5N 96.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 96.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 14.2N 98.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 14.4N 99.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 15.4N 101.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 16.9N 102.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 19.7N 104.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
211600Z POSITION NEAR 14.4N 97.0W.
TROPICAL STORM 23E (VICENTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1571 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212200Z, 220400Z, 221000Z AND 221600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24E (WILLA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-10-21 09:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 210857 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM VICENTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
400 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2018

VICENTE REMAINS A TINY TROPICAL CYCLONE AS EVIDENCED BY ASCAT PASSES
AROUND 03Z-04Z, WHICH SHOWED A VERY SMALL BUT WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION, WITH PEAK WIND SPEED VALUES OF 38 KT. THOSE PEAK WINDS
WERE LIKELY UNDERSAMPLED GIVEN THE SMALL RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS OF
ONLY 10-15 NMI. BASED ON VICENTE'S SMALL SIZE AND THE ASCAT WIND
DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY, WHICH
ABOVE ALL OF THE OTHER THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, AND LIES CLOSEST TO
THE UW-CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 43 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS
FORECAST DUE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY SHEAR EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALONG WITH VICENTE'S
PROXIMITY TO LAND AND OCCASIONAL DRY INTRUSIONS. RAPID WEAKENING
AND DISSIPATION ARE EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL DUE TO THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR 255/08 KT. VICENTE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD LATER TODAY AND THEN TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY WHEN THE CYCLONE
WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HURRICANE WILLA'S LARGER
CIRCULATION. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST NHC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS TIGHTLY PACKED ABOUT THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK, AND ONLY MINOR
FORWARD SPEED CHANGES WERE REQUIRED, EXCEPT FOR A MORE RIGHTWARD
SHIFT IN THE TRACK AT 72 HOURS RESULTING IN LANDFALL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 14.5N 96.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

2018-10-21 09:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 210857
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018
400 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018

Vicente remains a tiny tropical cyclone as evidenced by ASCAT passes
around 03Z-04Z, which showed a very small but well-defined
circulation, with peak wind speed values of 38 kt. Those peak winds
were likely undersampled given the small radius of maximum winds of
only 10-15 nmi. Based on Vicente's small size and the ASCAT wind
data, the initial intensity remains 45 kt for this advisory, which
above all of the other the intensity estimates, and lies closest to
the UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate of 43 kt. Little change in intensity is
forecast due to moderate northerly shear expected to affect the
cyclone throughout the forecast period, along with Vicente's
proximity to land and occasional dry intrusions. Rapid weakening
and dissipation are expected after landfall due to the
mountainous terrain of Mexico.

The initial motion is now west-southwestward or 255/08 kt. Vicente
is expected to move westward later today and then turn toward the
west-northwest on Monday and northwest on Tuesday when the cyclone
will come under the influence of the Hurricane Willa's larger
circulation. Landfall is expected to occur along the southwestern
coast of mainland Mexico on Wednesday. The latest NHC model guidance
is tightly packed about the previous advisory track, and only minor
forward speed changes were required, except for a more rightward
shift in the track at 72 hours resulting in landfall.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 14.5N 96.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 14.3N 97.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 14.4N 99.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 15.2N 100.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 16.6N 102.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 19.2N 104.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND SWRN MEXICO
96H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-21 09:31

WTPZ33 KNHC 210845 RRA
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM VICENTE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
400 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2018

...TINY VICENTE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WELL OFFSHORE THE COAST
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 96.0W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SE OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF VICENTE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 96.0 WEST. VICENTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H) AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING. A TURN BACK
TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING, FOLLOWED
BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, THE CENTER OF VICENTE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE OR
NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO, FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

VICENTE IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
ONLY EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE CENTER.

2018-10-21 09:31

WTPZ33 KNHC 210845
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Vicente Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018
400 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018

...TINY VICENTE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WELL OFFSHORE THE COAST
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 96.0W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SE OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southern coast of Mexico should monitor the
progress of Vicente.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicente was
located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 96.0 West. Vicente is
moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue this morning. A turn back
toward the west is expected by this afternoon or evening, followed
by a gradual turn toward the northwest on Monday. On the forecast
track, the center of Vicente is expected to remain just offshore or
near the southern coast of Mexico through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or
so, followed by gradual weakening on Monday and Tuesday.

Vicente is a small tropical cyclone with tropical-storm-force winds
only extending outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Between Monday and Wednesday, Vicente or its remnants
is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain with local amounts to
10 inches along the coast of southwestern Mexico. This rainfall
could produce life-threatening flash flooding and landslides within
mountainous terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-21 09:31

WTPZ23 KNHC 210844
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM VICENTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
0900 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VICENTE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 96.0W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 96.0W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 95.6W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 14.3N 97.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.4N 99.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.2N 100.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.6N 102.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 19.2N 104.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 96.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

..
FORECASTER STEWART

2018-10-21 09:31

WTPN32 PHNC 211000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23E (VICENTE) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 14.6N 95.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 95.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 14.3N 97.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 14.4N 99.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 15.2N 100.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 16.6N 102.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 19.2N 104.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
211000Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 96.1W.
TROPICAL STORM 23E (VICENTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1598 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211600Z, 212200Z, 220400Z AND 221000Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 24E (WILLA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-10-21 03:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 210231 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM VICENTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
1000 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2018

VICENTE CONSISTS OF A TIGHT BUT MOSTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL SWIRL
PRODUCING INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION. WE HAVE EXPECTED
AN IMMINENT WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TURN FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS NOW, BUT IT STILL HASN'T HAPPENED, AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST (280/6 KT). ALL OF THE
GENERALLY BEST PERFORMING TRACK MODELS, EXCEPT THE UKMET, FORECAST
THAT A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST SHOULD OCCUR AT ANY TIME, AND
EVEN THAT MODEL FORECASTS THAT A TURN TOWARD THE DUE WEST IS
IMMINENT. THE NHC FORECAST DUTIFULLY FOLLOWS THE MODEL GUIDANCE, BUT
IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS,
BASED ON RECENT TRENDS. BEYOND THAT TIME, A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS STILL ANTICIPATED, ASSUMING VICENTE
IS STEERED BY THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE MUCH
LARGER WILLA TO ITS WEST, AND THE NHC FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
HCCA AND TVCN CONSENSUS AIDS. A FEW MEMBERS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS
ENSEMBLES DO NOT SHOW THE TWO CYCLONES INTERACTING, RESULTING IN A
SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT AND MUCH FARTHER WEST TRACK FOR VICENTE.
WHILE THIS SCENARIO DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY AT THIS POINT, IT DOES
ILLUSTRATE THAT THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST HAS INCREASED
SINCE EARLIER TODAY.

THE INTENSITY OF VICENTE IS STILL ESTIMATED AT 45 KT, BASED ON
EARLIER ASCAT DATA AND THE UW-CIMSS SATCON. WHILE THE SMALL SIZE
OF VICENTE COULD MAKE IT SUSCEPTIBLE TO SHORT-TERM SWINGS IN
INTENSITY THAT ARE VERY DIFFICULT TO PREDICT, THE INTENSITY

2018-10-21 03:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 210231
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018
1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018

Vicente consists of a tight but mostly exposed low-level swirl
producing intermittent bursts of deep convection. We have expected
an imminent westward or west-southwestward turn for the past 24
hours now, but it still hasn't happened, and the initial motion
estimate is a little north of due west (280/6 kt). All of the
generally best performing track models, except the UKMET, forecast
that a turn toward the west-southwest should occur at any time, and
even that model forecasts that a turn toward the due west is
imminent. The NHC forecast dutifully follows the model guidance, but
is a little north of the model consensus for the first 24 hours,
based on recent trends. Beyond that time, a turn toward the
west-northwest or northwest is still anticipated, assuming Vicente
is steered by the southerly flow on the outer fringes of the much
larger Willa to its west, and the NHC forecast closely follows the
HCCA and TVCN consensus aids. A few members of the ECMWF and GFS
ensembles do not show the two cyclones interacting, resulting in a
significantly different and much farther west track for Vicente.
While this scenario does not seem likely at this point, it does
illustrate that the uncertainty in the track forecast has increased
since earlier today.

The intensity of Vicente is still estimated at 45 kt, based on
earlier ASCAT data and the UW-CIMSS SATCON. While the small size
of Vicente could make it susceptible to short-term swings in
intensity that are very difficult to predict, the intensity
guidance generally forecasts little change in the maximum winds
over the next day or two. Beyond 48 h, close proximity to land and
interaction with Willa is expected to cause Vicente to weaken and
eventually dissipate. No changes of note were made to the
intensity forecast in this advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 14.8N 95.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 14.4N 96.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 14.3N 97.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 14.9N 99.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 16.0N 101.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 18.0N 103.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-10-21 03:31

WTPZ33 KNHC 210230 RRA
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM VICENTE ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
1000 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2018

...TINY VICENTE PASSING SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 95.0W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM W OF TAPACHULA MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM S OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VICENTE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 95.0 WEST. VICENTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER
OF VICENTE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY ALONG OR NEAR THE SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

2018-10-21 03:31

WTPZ33 KNHC 210230
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Vicente Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018
1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018

...TINY VICENTE PASSING SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 95.0W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM W OF TAPACHULA MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM S OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southeastern and southern coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Vicente.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicente was
located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 95.0 West. Vicente is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the
west-southwest is possible on Sunday, followed by a gradual turn
toward the northwest by Monday. On the forecast track, the center
of Vicente is expected to move generally along or near the southern
and southwestern coast of Mexico for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some fluctuations in intensity are possible through the weekend,
followed by gradual weakening by early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Between Monday and Wednesday, Vicente or its remnants
is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain with local amounts to
10 inches along the coast of southwestern Mexico. This rainfall
could produce life-threatening flash flooding and landslides within
mountainous terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-10-21 03:31

WTPZ23 KNHC 210230
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM VICENTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
0300 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VICENTE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 95.0W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 95.0W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 94.6W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 14.4N 96.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 14.3N 97.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 14.9N 99.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.0N 101.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 18.0N 103.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 95.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-10-21 03:31

WTPN32 PHNC 210400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23E (VICENTE) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 14.7N 94.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7N 94.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 14.4N 96.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 14.3N 97.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 14.9N 99.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 16.0N 101.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 18.0N 103.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
210400Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 95.1W.
TROPICAL STORM 23E (VICENTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1634 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
210000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211000Z, 211600Z, 212200Z AND
220400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 24E (WILLA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-10-20 22:31

WTPN32 PHNC 202200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23E (VICENTE) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 14.5N 94.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 94.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 14.0N 95.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 13.7N 97.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 14.0N 99.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 15.0N 101.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 17.5N 103.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
202200Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 94.5W.
TROPICAL STORM 23E (VICENTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1667 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210400Z, 211000Z, 211600Z AND 212200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24E (WILLA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-10-20 21:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 202032 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM VICENTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
400 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2018

THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH VICENTE IS QUITE PECULIAR. IN
ADDITION ON BEING UNUSUALLY SMALL, IT HAS AN INTERMITTENT EYE
FEATURE SURROUNDED BY MODERATE TO SHALLOW CONVECTION. A VERY USEFUL
ASCAT PASS A FEW HOURS AGO SHOWED THAT VICENTE HAS A VERY TIGHT
CIRCULATION WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 40 TO 45 KT, AND THE
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND ONLY 20 N MI FROM THE CENTER.
ON THIS BASIS, AND AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
SAB, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 45 KT. NOW
THAT THE CIRCULATION IS FARTHER FROM LAND, THE CHANCES OF SOME
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING HAVE INCREASED IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS
BEFORE VICENTE ENCOUNTERS THE LARGER CIRCULATION OF WILLA. IN FACT,
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ADVERTISE THAT IN ABOUT 3 DAYS OR SO
VICENTE WILL DISSIPATE, AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT VICENTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR
265 DEGREES AT 8 KT. THE NOSE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AND EXPAND WESTWARD. THIS FLOW PATTERN SHOULD
FORCE VICENTE TO MOVE ON A WEST OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK FOR
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THEN AS THE CYCLONE REACHES THE
SOUTHWESTERN END OF THE RIDGE AND ENCOUNTERS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF WILLA'S CIRCULATION, VICENTE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH. VICENTE SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED BY THE LARGER
WILLA AND DISSIPATION COULD OCCUR EARLIER THAN INDICATED IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE SOLUTION OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

2018-10-20 21:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 202032
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018
400 PM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018

The cloud pattern associated with Vicente is quite peculiar. In
addition on being unusually small, it has an intermittent eye
feature surrounded by moderate to shallow convection. A very useful
ASCAT pass a few hours ago showed that Vicente has a very tight
circulation with maximum winds of 40 to 45 kt, and the
tropical-storm-force winds extend only 20 n mi from the center.
On this basis, and an average of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and
SAB, the initial intensity has been adjusted upward to 45 kt. Now
that the circulation is farther from land, the chances of some
slight strengthening have increased in the next 24 to 36 hours
before Vicente encounters the larger circulation of Willa. In fact,
most of the global models advertise that in about 3 days or so
Vicente will dissipate, and so does the official forecast.

Satellite fixes indicate that Vicente is moving toward the west or
265 degrees at 8 kt. The nose of a strong subtropical ridge is
forecast to amplify and expand westward. This flow pattern should
force Vicente to move on a west or even west-southwest track for
the next 24 to 36 hours. Then as the cyclone reaches the
southwestern end of the ridge and encounters the eastern
portion of Willa's circulation, Vicente should turn toward the
northwest and north. Vicente should become absorbed by the larger
Willa and dissipation could occur earlier than indicated in the
forecast at this time given the solution of the global models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 14.6N 94.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 14.0N 95.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 13.7N 97.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 14.0N 99.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 15.0N 101.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 17.5N 103.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-10-20 21:31

WTPZ33 KNHC 202032 RRA
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM VICENTE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
400 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2018

...VICENTE A LITTLE STRONGER BUT REMAINS QUITE TINY...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 94.3W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM W OF TAPACHULA MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VICENTE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 94.4 WEST. VICENTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). THIS GENERAL MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST THEREAFTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
TODAY AND SUNDAY. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: BETWEEN MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY, VICENTE OR ITS REMNANTS
IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO
10 INCHES ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS RAINFALL

2018-10-20 21:31

WTPZ33 KNHC 202032
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Vicente Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018
400 PM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018

...VICENTE A LITTLE STRONGER BUT REMAINS QUITE TINY...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 94.3W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM W OF TAPACHULA MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southeastern and southern coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Vicente.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicente was
located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 94.4 West. Vicente is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion
should continue for the next day or so with a gradual turn to the
northwest thereafter.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible
today and Sunday. A gradual weakening should begin thereafter.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Between Monday and Wednesday, Vicente or its remnants
is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain with local amounts to
10 inches along the coast of southwestern Mexico. This rainfall
could produce life-threatening flash flooding and landslides within
mountainous terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-10-20 21:31

WTPZ23 KNHC 202031
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM VICENTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
2100 UTC SAT OCT 20 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VICENTE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 94.3W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 15SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 94.3W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 94.0W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 14.0N 95.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 13.7N 97.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.0N 99.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.0N 101.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 17.5N 103.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 94.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

..
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-10-20 16:31

WTNT82 EGRR 201556

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 20.10.2018

TROPICAL STORM 24E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 105.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP242018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.10.2018 0 15.0N 105.7W 1005 24
0000UTC 21.10.2018 12 15.2N 106.2W 1002 26
1200UTC 21.10.2018 24 15.8N 107.1W 998 30
0000UTC 22.10.2018 36 16.2N 107.8W 992 37
1200UTC 22.10.2018 48 16.4N 108.3W 986 43
0000UTC 23.10.2018 60 16.6N 109.0W 979 57
1200UTC 23.10.2018 72 17.0N 109.7W 968 72
0000UTC 24.10.2018 84 17.8N 110.3W 961 76
1200UTC 24.10.2018 96 19.1N 110.6W 961 74
0000UTC 25.10.2018 108 20.8N 110.5W 954 74
1200UTC 25.10.2018 120 22.8N 109.3W 956 76
0000UTC 26.10.2018 132 25.1N 107.5W 993 30
1200UTC 26.10.2018 144 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM VICENTE ANALYSED POSITION : 14.0N 93.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP232018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.10.2018 0 14.0N 93.7W 1000 40
0000UTC 21.10.2018 12 14.3N 95.5W 999 46
1200UTC 21.10.2018 24 14.1N 97.9W 998 44
0000UTC 22.10.2018 36 14.8N 100.1W 1001 41
1200UTC 22.10.2018 48 16.5N 102.1W 1000 46
0000UTC 23.10.2018 60 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 28.1N 85.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.10.2018 144 28.1N 85.5W 1003 28


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 201556

2018-10-20 16:31

WTNT80 EGRR 201556

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 20.10.2018

TROPICAL STORM 24E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 105.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP242018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 20.10.2018 15.0N 105.7W WEAK
00UTC 21.10.2018 15.2N 106.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.10.2018 15.8N 107.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.10.2018 16.2N 107.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 22.10.2018 16.4N 108.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 23.10.2018 16.6N 109.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 23.10.2018 17.0N 109.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 24.10.2018 17.8N 110.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 24.10.2018 19.1N 110.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.10.2018 20.8N 110.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 25.10.2018 22.8N 109.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.10.2018 25.1N 107.5W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 26.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM VICENTE ANALYSED POSITION : 14.0N 93.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP232018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 20.10.2018 14.0N 93.7W MODERATE
00UTC 21.10.2018 14.3N 95.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.10.2018 14.1N 97.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.10.2018 14.8N 100.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.10.2018 16.5N 102.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 28.1N 85.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 26.10.2018 28.1N 85.5W WEAK


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 201556

2018-10-20 15:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 201444 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM VICENTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
1000 AM CDT SAT OCT 20 2018

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA CONTINUE TO
REVEAL THAT VICENTE IS AN UNUSUALLY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. DATA
SHOW A RING OF CONVECTION DEFINING THE CENTER WITH MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB YIELD AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KT. THE CYCLONE IS NOT IN THE BEST ENVIRONMENT FOR
INTENSIFICATION GIVEN THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS BEEN INTERACTING WITH
LAND, HOWEVER THE SHEAR IS NOT HIGH, AND THE CYCLONE IS OVER 29
DEGREE CELSIUS WATER. ONCE THE CIRCULATION SEPARATES FROM LAND,
SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS THEN FORECAST. AFTER THAT TIME, VICENTE
WILL BE APPROACHING THE MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION OF STRENGTHENING
TROPICAL CYCLONE WILLA, AND THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT AT
LEAST BY 96 HOURS, VICENTE WILL BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN AN OUTER BAND
OF WILLA. THIS IS THE SAME SCENARIO WHICH OCCURRED WITH HURRICANE
JOHN AND TROPICAL STORM ILEANA BACK IN AUGUST THIS YEAR.

VICENTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT. THE NOSE
OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AND EXPAND
WESTWARD. THIS FLOW PATTERN SHOULD FORCE VICENTE TO MOVE ON A WEST
TO WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK FOR ABOUT 36 HOURS. THEN AS THE CYCLONE
REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN END OF THE RIDGE AND ENCOUNTERS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF WILLA'S CIRCULATION, VICENTE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST UNTIL IT BECOMES ABSORBED. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT
UNANIMOUSLY, THE TRACK GUIDANCE FORCES VICENTE TO ACQUIRE A

2018-10-20 15:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 201444
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018
1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018

Conventional satellite imagery and microwave data continue to
reveal that Vicente is an unusually small tropical cyclone. Data
show a ring of convection defining the center with most of the
thunderstorm activity on the southwestern portion of the
circulation. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB yield an initial
intensity of 35 kt. The cyclone is not in the best environment for
intensification given that the circulation has been interacting with
land, however the shear is not high, and the cyclone is over 29
degree Celsius water. Once the circulation separates from land,
some slight strengthening is then forecast. After that time, Vicente
will be approaching the much larger circulation of strengthening
Tropical Cyclone Willa, and the most likely scenario is that at
least by 96 hours, Vicente will become absorbed within an outer band
of Willa. This is the same scenario which occurred with Hurricane
John and Tropical Storm Ileana back in August this year.

Vicente is moving toward the west or 270 degrees at 6 kt. The nose
of a strong subtropical ridge is forecast to amplify and expand
westward. This flow pattern should force Vicente to move on a west
to west-southwest track for about 36 hours. Then as the cyclone
reaches the southwestern end of the ridge and encounters the eastern
portion of Willa's circulation, Vicente should turn toward the
northwest until it becomes absorbed. It is interesting to note that
unanimously, the track guidance forces Vicente to acquire a
west-southwesterly component due to the expansion of the ridge,
increasing the confidence in the the track forecast during the next
2 to 3 days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 14.3N 93.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 14.2N 94.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 13.5N 96.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 13.3N 98.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 13.8N 100.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 16.5N 103.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 19.0N 106.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 25/1200Z...ABSORBED BY WILLA

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-10-20 15:31

WTPZ33 KNHC 201444 RRA
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM VICENTE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
1000 AM CDT SAT OCT 20 2018

...SMALL-SIZED VICENTE FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD...
....HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 93.6W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WSW OF TAPACHULA MEXICO
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VICENTE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 93.6 WEST. VICENTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL TRACK
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
36 TO 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME, A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS
ANTICIPATED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, VICENTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE

2018-10-20 15:31

WTPZ33 KNHC 201444
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Vicente Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018
1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018

...SMALL-SIZED VICENTE FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 93.6W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WSW OF TAPACHULA MEXICO
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southeastern and southern coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Vicente.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicente was
located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 93.6 West. Vicente is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general track
with a slight increase in forward speed is forecast during the next
36 to 48 hours. After that time, a turn to the northwest is
anticipated.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next 48
hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Through Thursday morning, Vicente is expected to produce
3 to 6 inches of rain with local amounts to 10 inches across
southwest Guatemala and the Pacific coast of southern Mexico. This
rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides within mountainous terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-10-20 15:31

WTPZ23 KNHC 201443 RRA
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM VICENTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
1500 UTC SAT OCT 20 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VICENTE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 93.6W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 93.6W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 93.3W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 14.2N 94.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 13.5N 96.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 13.3N 98.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 13.8N 100.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.5N 103.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 19.0N 106.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

2018-10-20 15:31

WTPZ23 KNHC 201443
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM VICENTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
1500 UTC SAT OCT 20 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VICENTE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 93.6W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 93.6W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 93.3W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 14.2N 94.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 13.5N 96.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 13.3N 98.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 13.8N 100.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.5N 103.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 19.0N 106.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 93.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-10-20 15:31

WTPN32 PHNC 201600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23E (VICENTE) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 14.3N 93.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 93.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 14.2N 94.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 13.5N 96.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 13.3N 98.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 13.8N 100.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 16.5N 103.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 19.0N 106.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
201600Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 93.7W.
TROPICAL STORM 23E (VICENTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1705 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
201200Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202200Z, 210400Z, 211000Z AND
211600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24E (TWENTYFOUR) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

2018-10-20 09:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 200836 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM VICENTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
400 AM CDT SAT OCT 20 2018

RADAR DATA FROM GUATEMALA INDICATE THAT VICENTE REMAINS A VERY SMALL
BUT WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL CYCLONE, WHICH HAS OCCASIONALLY EXHIBITED
AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE. HOWEVER, CONVECTION HAS WANED DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS, SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO ACCURATELY ASCERTAIN THE INTENSITY
OF SUCH A TINY STORM SINCE SMALL SYSTEMS LIKE THIS CAN SPIN UP AND
SPIN DOWN VERY QUICKLY OWING TO MINOR CONVECTIVE FLUCTUATIONS. FOR
NOW, IT IS ASSUMED THAT VICENTE IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM BASED ON
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB, AND
41 KT FROM UW-CIMSS SATCON. THE MOST RECENT ADT VALUE, HOWEVER, WAS
T2.2/32 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/06 KT. OVER THE LAST 18 HOURS, IT
APPEARS THAT VICENTE'S TRACK HAS BEEN DOING SOME COASTAL HUGGING.
THAT BEING SAID, THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE
WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 H AND EMERGE OVER THE OPEN GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WHERE A MODEST GAP WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO TURN THE
CYCLONE SOUTHWESTWARD BY THIS EVENING. THE LATEST 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
IS SURPRISINGLY IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
UNUSUAL TRACK SCENARIO. BY 36-48 HOURS, A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
WEST IS EXPECTED, FOLLOWED BY A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON DAYS
3-5 AS THE SMALL CYCLONE ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL MEXICO.
ASSUMING VICENTE SURVIVES THE NEXT 96 HOURS, ON DAY 5 THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEW AND MUCH

2018-10-20 09:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 200836
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018
400 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018

Radar data from Guatemala indicate that Vicente remains a very small
but well-defined tropical cyclone, which has occasionally exhibited
an eye-like feature. However, convection has waned during the past
few hours, so it is difficult to accurately ascertain the intensity
of such a tiny storm since small systems like this can spin up and
spin down very quickly owing to minor convective fluctuations. For
now, it is assumed that Vicente is still a tropical storm based on
satellite intensity estimates of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB, and
41 kt from UW-CIMSS SATCON; the most recent ADT value, however, was
T2.2/32 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 290/06 kt. Over the last 18 hours, it
appears that Vicente's track has been doing some coastal hugging.
That being said, the tropical storm is expected to turn more
westward during the next 12 h and emerge over the open Gulf of
Tehuantepec where a modest gap wind event is forecast to turn the
cyclone southwestward by this evening. The latest 00Z model guidance
is surprisingly in very good agreement on the development of this
unusual track scenario. By 36-48 hours, a gradual turn toward the
west is expected, followed by a motion toward the northwest on days
3-5 as the small cyclone rounds the southwestern periphery of a
deep-layer ridge located over the Gulf of Mexico and central Mexico.
Assuming Vicente survives the next 96 hours, on day 5 the tropical
cyclone is expected to come under the influence of the new and much
larger Tropical Depression 24-E -- currently located about 700 nmi
to the west -- and possibly become absorbed or forced inland over
southwestern Mexico by that system. The new NHC forecast was nudged
a little to the west at most forecast times, closer to the HCCA and
FSSE corrected consensus models.

Vertical shear is forecast to be less than 10 kt and the mid-level
moisture is expected to be high with humidity values of more than 75
percent for the next 36 hours. This should allow for some gradual
strengthening to occur during that time despite Vicente's proximity
to land. By 48 hours and beyond, however, northerly shear is
expected to increase across the small cyclone, which should act to
cap the intensification process and induce some gradual weakening
by 96h. On day 5, the shear is forecast to exceed 20 kt, due in
large part to the expected strong outflow from a strengthening
TD-24E, resulting in significant weakening or even dissipation of
Vicente. The official intensity forecast is similar to but slightly
below the previous forecast, and lies close to an average of the
HCCA, FSSE, and IVCN consensus models.

Vicente should begin to slowly pull away from the coast overnight
and on Saturday, however, heavy rainfall, with possible
life-threatening flash flooding, is expected over portions
southeastern Mexico during the next few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 14.0N 93.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 14.1N 93.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 13.5N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 12.9N 97.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 13.1N 98.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 15.2N 101.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 24/0600Z 18.3N 104.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 25/0600Z 21.8N 108.3W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-20 09:31

WTPZ33 KNHC 200836 RRA
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM VICENTE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
400 AM CDT SAT OCT 20 2018

...TINY VICENTE MEANDERING OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 93.1W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SW OF TAPACHULA MEXICO
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VICENTE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 93.1 WEST. VICENTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H) AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING. AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON,
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF VICENTE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE COASTS OF GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

VICENTE IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS

2018-10-20 09:31

WTPZ33 KNHC 200836
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Vicente Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018
400 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018

...TINY VICENTE MEANDERING OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 93.1W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SW OF TAPACHULA MEXICO
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southeastern and southern coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Vicente.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicente was
located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 93.1 West. Vicente is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue this morning. An increase in forward
speed and a turn toward the west is expected by this afternoon,
followed by a turn toward the southwest later tonight. On the
forecast track, the center of Vicente will gradually move farther
away from the coasts of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is possible during the next few days.

Vicente is a small tropical cyclone and tropical-storm-force winds
only extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Through Wednesday morning, Vicente is expected to
produce 3 to 6 inches of rain with local amounts to 10 inches
across portions of the Pacific coast of southeastern and southern
Mexico. This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding
and landslides within mountainous terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-20 09:31

WTPZ23 KNHC 200836 RRA
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM VICENTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
0900 UTC SAT OCT 20 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VICENTE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 93.1W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 93.1W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 92.8W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 14.1N 93.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 13.5N 95.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 12.9N 97.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 13.1N 98.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.2N 101.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 18.3N 104.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

2018-10-20 09:31

WTPZ23 KNHC 200836
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM VICENTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
0900 UTC SAT OCT 20 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VICENTE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 93.1W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 93.1W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 92.8W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 14.1N 93.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 13.5N 95.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 12.9N 97.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 13.1N 98.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.2N 101.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 18.3N 104.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 21.8N 108.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 93.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

2018-10-20 04:31

WTNT82 EGRR 200356

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 20.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 99E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.9N 103.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP992018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 20.10.2018 0 14.9N 103.3W 1008 19
1200UTC 20.10.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM VICENTE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.5N 92.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP232018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 20.10.2018 0 13.5N 92.9W 1007 28
1200UTC 20.10.2018 12 14.0N 93.8W 1005 30
0000UTC 21.10.2018 24 14.2N 95.2W 1005 33
1200UTC 21.10.2018 36 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 15.1N 107.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.10.2018 36 15.1N 107.3W 1004 27
0000UTC 22.10.2018 48 16.2N 108.3W 1002 31
1200UTC 22.10.2018 60 15.6N 109.0W 999 34
0000UTC 23.10.2018 72 15.9N 109.7W 996 43
1200UTC 23.10.2018 84 16.1N 111.1W 990 56
0000UTC 24.10.2018 96 16.9N 111.8W 985 61
1200UTC 24.10.2018 108 17.8N 112.2W 982 62
0000UTC 25.10.2018 120 19.4N 112.3W 976 63
1200UTC 25.10.2018 132 21.0N 111.6W 963 76
0000UTC 26.10.2018 144 22.4N 109.9W 971 64


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 200356

2018-10-20 04:31

WTNT80 EGRR 200356

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 20.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 99E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.9N 103.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP992018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 20.10.2018 14.9N 103.3W WEAK
12UTC 20.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM VICENTE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.5N 92.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP232018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 20.10.2018 13.5N 92.9W WEAK
12UTC 20.10.2018 14.0N 93.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.10.2018 14.2N 95.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 15.1N 107.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 21.10.2018 15.1N 107.3W WEAK
00UTC 22.10.2018 16.2N 108.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.10.2018 15.6N 109.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.10.2018 15.9N 109.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.10.2018 16.1N 111.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 24.10.2018 16.9N 111.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 24.10.2018 17.8N 112.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.10.2018 19.4N 112.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 25.10.2018 21.0N 111.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 26.10.2018 22.4N 109.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 200356

2018-10-20 03:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 200236 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM VICENTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
1000 PM CDT FRI OCT 19 2018

RADAR IMAGERY FROM GUATEMALA HAS BEEN EXTREMELY HELPFUL IN TRACKING
THE CENTER OF VICENTE, ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET. THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER OF THE SMALL TROPICAL STORM APPEARS TO HAVE ACCELERATED
NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS, AWAY FROM ITS RAPIDLY
DECAYING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST, AND IS NOW ALMOST ENTIRELY
EXPOSED. ANALYSIS FROM UW-CIMSS INDICATES THAT 10-15 KNOTS OF
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING VICENTE, AND THIS APPEARS
TO HAVE BEEN ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY DISRUPT THE ORGANIZATION OF THE
CYCLONE, PROBABLY DUE TO ITS SMALL SIZE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN HELD AT 35 KT BASED ON OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE
ESTIMATES AT 00Z, BUT GIVEN THE TINY SIZE OF VICENTE AND ITS
LARGE SWINGS IN ORGANIZATION SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING, ITS UNCLEAR
HOW REPRESENTATIVE THESE ESTIMATES ARE OF THE TRUE MAXIMUM WINDS.

VICENTE IS NOW MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 300/3 KT, AND ALL OF
THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT IT WILL TURN WESTWARD OVERNIGHT. AFTER
THAT TIME, A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT WILL LIKELY CAUSE
THE CYCLONE TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD, ESPECIALLY IF VICENTE REMAINS
WEAK AND SHALLOW. A FEW MODELS EVEN INDICATE THE TROPICAL STORM
COULD DISSIPATE ENTIRELY AS IT INTERACTS WITH THESE WINDS. ASSUMING
THE CYCLONE MAKES IT PAST THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC INTACT, VICENTE
SHOULD TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AFTER ABOUT
48 H AS IT GETS STEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
MEXICO AND ANOTHER TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OFF THE

2018-10-20 03:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 200236
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018
1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

Radar imagery from Guatemala has been extremely helpful in tracking
the center of Vicente, especially after sunset. The low-level
center of the small tropical storm appears to have accelerated
northwestward during the past couple of hours, away from its rapidly
decaying central dense overcast, and is now almost entirely
exposed. Analysis from UW-CIMSS indicates that 10-15 knots of
northwesterly shear is currently affecting Vicente, and this appears
to have been enough to significantly disrupt the organization of the
cyclone, probably due to its small size. The initial intensity has
been held at 35 kt based on objective and subjective satellite
estimates at 00Z, but given the tiny size of Vicente and its
large swings in organization since early this morning, its unclear
how representative these estimates are of the true maximum winds.

Vicente is now moving west-northwestward, or 300/3 kt, and all of
the guidance indicates that it will turn westward overnight. After
that time, a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will likely cause
the cyclone to turn southwestward, especially if Vicente remains
weak and shallow. A few models even indicate the tropical storm
could dissipate entirely as it interacts with these winds. Assuming
the cyclone makes it past the Gulf of Tehuantepec intact, Vicente
should turn back toward the west-northwest or northwest after about
48 h as it gets steered by the flow between a mid-level ridge over
Mexico and another tropical cyclone that will likely develop off the
coast of Mexico by that time. The NHC forecast has been shifted a
little to the west at most forecast times, closer to the HCCA and
FSSE aids, but is generally similar to the previous advisory.

Due in part to the rapid decline in Vicente's organization this
evening, the intensity forecast has been adjusted lower at most
forecast hours for the first 48 h of the forecast, but is still
generally higher than the model consensus. Most of the intensity
guidance still calls for intensification, especially between 36 h
and 72 h, when Vicente should be past the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and
the shear should remain generally low. By the end of the forecast
period, the global models indicate that Vicente will interact with a
much larger tropical cyclone to its west, which should cause Vicente
to weaken and possibly dissipate, though a 120 h point is still
carried in this forecast for continuity purposes.

Vicente should begin to slowly pull away from the coast overnight
and on Saturday, however, heavy rainfall, with possible
life-threatening flash flooding, is expected over portions of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next few
days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 13.7N 92.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 13.7N 93.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 13.3N 94.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 12.5N 95.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 12.3N 97.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 13.8N 100.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 17.0N 104.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 25/0000Z 20.5N 107.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-10-20 03:31

WTPZ33 KNHC 200235 RRA
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM VICENTE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
1000 PM CDT FRI OCT 19 2018

...VICENTE MEANDERING OFF THE COAST OF GUATEMALA...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EL
SALVADOR, GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 92.5W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM W OF PUERTO SAN JOSE GUATEMALA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF TAPACHULA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), RADAR DATA FROM GUATEMALA AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATED THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 92.5 WEST. VICENTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH (6 KM/H). AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT,
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, THE CENTER OF VICENTE SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE
COASTS OF GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

VICENTE IS A SMALL TROPICAL STORM, AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS

2018-10-20 03:31

WTPZ33 KNHC 200235
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Vicente Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018
1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

...VICENTE MEANDERING OFF THE COAST OF GUATEMALA...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EL
SALVADOR, GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 92.5W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM W OF PUERTO SAN JOSE GUATEMALA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF TAPACHULA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southern coast of Mexico should monitor the
progress of the depression.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), radar data from Guatemala and satellite
imagery indicated that the center of Tropical Storm Vicente was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 92.5 West. Vicente is
moving toward the west-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). An increase
in forward speed and a turn toward the west is expected tonight,
followed by a turn toward the southwest on Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center of Vicente should gradually move away from the
coasts of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico tonight and tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is possible during the next few days.

Vicente is a small tropical storm, and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Through Wednesday morning, Vicente is expected to
produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with local amounts to 15 inches
across portions of El Salvador and southern Guatemala, with 3 to 6
inches and local amounts to 10 inches near the Pacific coast of
southeastern Mexico. This rainfall could produce life-threatening
flash flooding and landslides within mountainous terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

2018-10-20 03:31

WTPZ23 KNHC 200235 RRA
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM VICENTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
0300 UTC SAT OCT 20 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 92.5W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 92.5W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 92.4W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 13.7N 93.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 13.3N 94.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 12.5N 95.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 12.3N 97.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.8N 100.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 17.0N 104.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 20.5N 107.5W

2018-10-20 03:31

WTPZ23 KNHC 200235
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM VICENTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
0300 UTC SAT OCT 20 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 92.5W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 92.5W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 92.4W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 13.7N 93.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 13.3N 94.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 12.5N 95.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 12.3N 97.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.8N 100.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 17.0N 104.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 20.5N 107.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 92.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

2018-10-19 21:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 192036 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM VICENTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
400 PM CDT FRI OCT 19 2018

ALTHOUGH TINY, THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY WELL-DEFINED
CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE SYSTEM'S QUICK FORMATION AND SMALL SIZE
MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY,
AND THE VARIOUS SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES RANGE FROM
T1.8/28 KT FROM THE ADT TO T3.0/45 KT FROM SAB. AS A COMPROMISE,
THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KT, WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE TAFB ESTIMATE
AND THE MOST RECENT SATCON NUMBER, AND THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO
TROPICAL STORM VICENTE.

AS NOTED THIS MORNING, WARM WATERS AND LOW SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE
FURTHER STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON ONE HAND, THIS
INTENSIFICATION COULD BE MORE THAN WHAT IS BEING INDICATED BY THE
MODELS, SINCE SMALL SYSTEMS CAN HAVE A TENDENCY TO GAIN STRENGTH
QUICKLY. ON THE OTHER HAND, VICENTE WILL BE INTERACTING WITH A GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND THE
STORM COULD END UP INGESTING SOME DRIER, MORE STABLE AIR INTO ITS
CIRCULATION. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FAVORS THE FORMER SCENARIO
AND IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR THE FIRST 2-3 DAYS.
AFTER DAY 3, AN INCREASE IN SHEAR, INTERACTION WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE
TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE WEST, AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH LAND
COULD ALL CONSPIRE TO ARREST THE INTENSIFICATION TREND, AND
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT IS ALSO
POSSIBLE THAT VICENTE COULD DISSIPATE BEFORE THE END OF THE 5-DAY
PERIOD. THIS SCENARIO IS REMINISCENT OF, AND HAS SIMILARITIES TO,

2018-10-19 21:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 192036
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018
400 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

Although tiny, the cyclone continues to display well-defined
convective banding. The system's quick formation and small size
make it difficult to have high confidence in its current intensity,
and the various subjective and objective estimates range from
T1.8/28 kt from the ADT to T3.0/45 kt from SAB. As a compromise,
the intensity is set at 35 kt, which is closest to the TAFB estimate
and the most recent SATCON number, and the depression is upgraded to
Tropical Storm Vicente.

As noted this morning, warm waters and low shear should induce
further strengthening during the next 48 hours. On one hand, this
intensification could be more than what is being indicated by the
models, since small systems can have a tendency to gain strength
quickly. On the other hand, Vicente will be interacting with a Gulf
of Tehuantepec gap wind event during the next 48 hours, and the
storm could end up ingesting some drier, more stable air into its
circulation. The NHC intensity forecast favors the former scenario
and is a little above the guidance envelope for the first 2-3 days.
After day 3, an increase in shear, interaction with another possible
tropical cyclone to the west, and possible interaction with land
could all conspire to arrest the intensification trend, and
weakening is expected by the end of the forecast period. It is also
possible that Vicente could dissipate before the end of the 5-day
period. This scenario is reminiscent of, and has similarities to,
the interaction of Tropical Storm Ileana and Hurricane John back in
early August.

Vicente is moving very slowly northwestward, or 305/2 kt. The
track models are indicating that the ongoing gap winds over the Gulf
of Tehuantepec may have a greater influence of Vicente than
previously thought, forcing the storm to turn west-southwestward in
the next 24-48 hours. After 48 hours, Vicente should gradually
enter the flow between mid-level ridging over Mexico and low
pressure west of Mexico, causing it to turn back to the west and
northwest on days 3 through 5. The new NHC track forecast is not
too different from the morning forecast during that period, and it's
closest to the paths shown by the GFS, HCCA, and FSSE guidance,
which would bring the center close to the coast of Mexico later in
the forecast period. There are considerable speed differences,
however, and the NHC forecast splits the difference between the fast
ECMWF solution and the slow GFS scenario.

Even though Vicente should begin to slowly pull away from the coast
tonight and on Saturday, heavy rainfall, with possible
life-threatening flash flooding, is expected over portions of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next few
days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 13.3N 92.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 13.6N 93.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 13.3N 94.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 12.9N 95.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 12.7N 96.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 13.7N 99.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 16.5N 103.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 24/1800Z 20.0N 106.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-10-19 21:31

WTPZ33 KNHC 192036 RRA
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM VICENTE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
400 PM CDT FRI OCT 19 2018

...TROPICAL STORM VICENTE FORMS SOUTH OF GUATEMALA...
....FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EL SALVADOR, GUATEMALA,
AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DUE TO HEAVY RAINS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 92.2W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM WSW OF PUERTO SAN JOSE GUATEMALA
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF TAPACHULA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 92.2 WEST. VICENTE IS
MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH (4 KM/H). A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST, WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED, IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE
CENTER OF VICENTE SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE COASTS OF
GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

VICENTE IS A SMALL TROPICAL STORM, AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE CENTER.

2018-10-19 21:31

WTPZ33 KNHC 192036
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Vicente Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018
400 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

...TROPICAL STORM VICENTE FORMS SOUTH OF GUATEMALA...
...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EL SALVADOR, GUATEMALA,
AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DUE TO HEAVY RAINS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 92.2W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM WSW OF PUERTO SAN JOSE GUATEMALA
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF TAPACHULA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southern coast of Mexico should monitor the
progress of the depression.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicente was
located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 92.2 West. Vicente is
moving slowly toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A turn
toward the west and west-southwest, with some increase in forward
speed, is expected through the weekend. On the forecast track, the
center of Vicente should gradually move away from the coasts of
Guatemala and southeastern Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next couple of days.

Vicente is a small tropical storm, and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Through Wednesday morning, Vicente is expected to
produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with local amounts to 15 inches
across portions of El Salvador and southern Guatemala, with 3 to 6
inches and local amounts to 10 inches near the Pacific coast of
southeastern Mexico. This rainfall could produce life-threatening
flash flooding and landslides within mountainous terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-10-19 21:31

WTPZ23 KNHC 192035 RRA
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM VICENTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
2100 UTC FRI OCT 19 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 92.2W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 92.2W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 92.0W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 13.6N 93.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 13.3N 94.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 12.9N 95.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 12.7N 96.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 13.7N 99.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 16.5N 103.0W

2018-10-19 21:31

WTPZ23 KNHC 192035
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM VICENTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
2100 UTC FRI OCT 19 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 92.2W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 92.2W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 92.0W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 13.6N 93.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 13.3N 94.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 12.9N 95.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 12.7N 96.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 13.7N 99.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 16.5N 103.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 20.0N 106.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 92.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

2018-10-19 15:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 191457 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
1000 AM CDT FRI OCT 19 2018

TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE FORMED LATE YESTERDAY WITHIN A
SPRAWLING AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL
AMERICA WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS SOUTH OF MEXICO.
THE EASTERNMOST LOW SOUTH OF GUATEMALA IS SMALL AND HAS SPUN UP
QUICKLY, WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUING TO BURST NEAR THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. MICROWAVE DATA, FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES, AND
VALUABLE RADAR DATA FROM GUATEMALA ALSO SHOW A TIGHT CORE AND
INCREASING CONVECTIVE BANDS. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE SET AT 30 KT,
SLIGHTLY ABOVE LAST EVENING'S ASCAT PASS AND A T1.5 DVORAK
CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB, GIVEN THE SYSTEM'S WELL-DEVELOPED
STRUCTURE.

THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED OVER WARM WATERS (28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS)
AND IN A LIGHT-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD SUPPORT
FURTHER STRENGTHENING, AND THE DEPRESSION'S SMALL SIZE MAY ALLOW FOR
INTENSIFICATION HIGHER THAN WHAT IS INDICATED BY THE INTENSITY
MODELS. FOR THIS FIRST ADVISORY, THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR
THE TOP END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND LEVELS OFF THE MAXIMUM
WINDS IN 3-5 DAYS WHEN THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN SHEAR.

SINCE THE LOW FORMED RECENTLY, THE DEPRESSION'S CURRENT MOTION IS
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, MICROWAVE FIXES INDICATE THAT IT HASN'T MOVED
MUCH SINCE LAST EVENING, AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 300/2 KT. A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE SPANNING
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHERN MEXICO SHOULD STEER THE
CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS OR SO. AFTER DAY 3,

2018-10-19 15:31

WTPZ43 KNHC 191457
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Twenty-Three-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018
1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

Two distinct areas of low pressure formed late yesterday within a
sprawling area of disturbed weather that stretched from Central
America westward over the eastern Pacific waters south of Mexico.
The easternmost low south of Guatemala is small and has spun up
quickly, with deep convection continuing to burst near the center of
circulation. Microwave data, first-light visible images, and
valuable radar data from Guatemala also show a tight core and
increasing convective bands. Maximum winds are set at 30 kt,
slightly above last evening's ASCAT pass and a T1.5 Dvorak
classification from TAFB, given the system's well-developed
structure.

The depression is located over warm waters (28-29 degrees Celsius)
and in a light-shear environment. These conditions should support
further strengthening, and the depression's small size may allow for
intensification higher than what is indicated by the intensity
models. For this first advisory, the NHC intensity forecast is near
the top end of the guidance envelope and levels off the maximum
winds in 3-5 days when there could be an increase in shear.

Since the low formed recently, the depression's current motion is
uncertain. However, microwave fixes indicate that it hasn't moved
much since last evening, and the initial motion estimate is slowly
west-northwestward, or 300/2 kt. A strong mid-level ridge spanning
across the Gulf of Mexico and northern Mexico should steer the
cyclone generally westward for the next 3 days or so. After day 3,
the ridge is expected to retreat eastward a bit, and the cyclone
should begin to turn northwestward between the ridge and another
low pressure system to the west. The track models are in good
agreement on this general scenario, but there is not agreement on
how close the system could get to the coast of Mexico during the
forecast period. Therefore, interests along the southern and
southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system during the next few days. Regardless of how close it gets
to the coast, heavy rainfall, with possible life-threatening flash
flooding, is expected over portions of El Salvador, Guatemala, and
southeastern Mexico during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 13.3N 91.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 13.7N 93.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 13.5N 94.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 13.3N 94.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 13.3N 96.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 13.8N 99.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 16.0N 103.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 24/1200Z 19.0N 105.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-10-19 15:31

WTPZ33 KNHC 191456 RRA
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-THREE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
1000 AM CDT FRI OCT 19 2018

...THE INCESSANT EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON CONTINUES...
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF GUATEMALA WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 91.9W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WSW OF PUERTO SAN JOSE GUATEMALA
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF TAPACHULA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWENTY-THREE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 91.9
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
NEAR 2 MPH (4 KM/H). A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD MOTION WITH
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE COASTS OF GUATEMALA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND THE
DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).

2018-10-19 15:31

WTPZ33 KNHC 191456
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-Three-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018
1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

...THE INCESSANT EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON CONTINUES...
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF GUATEMALA WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 91.9W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WSW OF PUERTO SAN JOSE GUATEMALA
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF TAPACHULA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southern coast of Mexico should monitor the
progress of the depression.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Twenty-Three-E was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 91.9
West. The depression is moving slowly toward the west-northwest
near 2 mph (4 km/h). A west-northwestward or westward motion with
an increase in forward speed is expected during the next few days.
On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to
remain south of the coasts of Guatemala and southern Mexico through
early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Through Wednesday morning, the depression is expected to
produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with local amounts to 15 inches
across portions of El Salvador and southern Guatemala, with 3 to 6
inches and local amounts to 10 inches near the Pacific coast of
southeastern Mexico. This rainfall could produce life-threatening
flash flooding and landslides within mountainous terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-10-19 15:31

WTPZ23 KNHC 191456 RRA
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-THREE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
1500 UTC FRI OCT 19 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 91.9W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 91.9W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 91.8W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 13.7N 93.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 13.5N 94.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 13.3N 94.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 13.3N 96.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 13.8N 99.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 16.0N 103.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 19.0N 105.5W

2018-10-19 15:31

WTPZ23 KNHC 191456
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-THREE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018
1500 UTC FRI OCT 19 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 91.9W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 91.9W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 91.8W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 13.7N 93.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 13.5N 94.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 13.3N 94.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 13.3N 96.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 13.8N 99.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 16.0N 103.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 19.0N 105.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 91.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG