Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for WILLA-18
in Mexico

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2018-10-24 16:31

WTNT82 EGRR 241556

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 24.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 19.5N 49.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.10.2018 0 19.5N 49.2W 1012 23
0000UTC 25.10.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILLA ANALYSED POSITION : 24.9N 102.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP242018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.10.2018 0 24.9N 102.7W 1010 19
0000UTC 25.10.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 12.1N 160.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.10.2018 60 12.1N 160.7W 1005 25
1200UTC 27.10.2018 72 12.8N 162.4W 1004 35
0000UTC 28.10.2018 84 13.5N 163.6W 1001 38
1200UTC 28.10.2018 96 14.5N 164.3W 999 42
0000UTC 29.10.2018 108 15.5N 164.5W 999 39
1200UTC 29.10.2018 120 16.4N 164.5W 1000 39
0000UTC 30.10.2018 132 18.4N 164.5W 1001 34
1200UTC 30.10.2018 144 21.8N 162.4W 996 45


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 241556

2018-10-24 16:31

WTNT80 EGRR 241556

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 24.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 19.5N 49.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 24.10.2018 19.5N 49.2W WEAK
00UTC 25.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILLA ANALYSED POSITION : 24.9N 102.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP242018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 24.10.2018 24.9N 102.7W WEAK
00UTC 25.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 12.1N 160.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 27.10.2018 12.1N 160.7W WEAK
12UTC 27.10.2018 12.8N 162.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.10.2018 13.5N 163.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.10.2018 14.5N 164.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.10.2018 15.5N 164.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.10.2018 16.4N 164.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.10.2018 18.4N 164.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.10.2018 21.8N 162.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 241556

2018-10-24 15:31

WTPZ44 KNHC 241433
TCDEP4

REMNANTS OF WILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
1000 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2018

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WILLA'S
SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS DISSIPATED OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO, SO
THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A NON-TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS A SEPARATE SYSTEM, AND NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH WILLA'S REMNANTS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 25.5N 101.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...REMNANTS OF WILLA
12H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED


..
FORECASTER PASCH

2018-10-24 15:31

WTPZ34 KNHC 241431
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF WILLA ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
1000 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2018

...WILLA DISSIPATES OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...
....THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 101.5W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM W OF MONTERREY MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), THE REMNANTS OF WILLA WERE LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 101.5 WEST. THE REMNANTS ARE MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 28 MPH (44 KM/H,) AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 25 MPH (35 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB (29.77 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

...
FORECASTER PASCH

2018-10-24 15:31

WTPZ24 KNHC 241431
TCMEP4

REMNANTS OF WILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
1500 UTC WED OCT 24 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 101.5W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 24 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 101.5W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 102.7W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 101.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

..
FORECASTER PASCH

2018-10-24 15:31

WTPN31 PHNC 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24E (WILLA) WARNING NR 018
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 24E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 25.0N 102.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0N 102.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 27.6N 98.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
241600Z POSITION NEAR 25.9N 101.3W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24E (WILLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 885 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 24
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

2018-10-24 09:31

WTPZ44 KNHC 240833
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
400 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2018

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WILLA IS
LOCATED WELL INLAND OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE MEXICAN STATE
OF DURANGO. DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE MID AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS
TO THE NORTHEAST AND FARTHER INLAND, WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
SHEARING AWAY AND LAGGING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE BLOCKING
HIGH TERRAIN OF WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO. A 12-HOUR FORECAST
POSITION HAS BEEN PROVIDED FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES, WHICH REFLECTS
WHERE THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS EXPECTED TO BE SINCE THE
CYCLONE WILL LIKELY HAVE DISSIPATED BY THEN.

ALTHOUGH WILLA HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION, WIND SPEEDS
ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLS AND MOUNTAINS ARE OFTEN UP
TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN THE NEAR-SURFACE WINDS INDICATED IN THIS
ADVISORY. THEREFORE, STRONG TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS GUSTS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRING TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. STORM SURGE WILL SUBSIDE THIS MORNING ALONG THE COASTS OF
SOUTHERN SINALOA AND NAYARIT STATES IN WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.

2. HEAVY RAINFALL FROM WILLA IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWESTERN AND
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 24.4N 103.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 24/1800Z 26.0N 100.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

..
FORECASTER STEWART

2018-10-24 09:31

WTPZ34 KNHC 240835 RRA
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILLA ADVISORY NUMBER 17...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
400 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2018

CORRECTED LOCATION RELATIVE TO DURANGO MEXICO

...WILLA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...
....HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED OVER WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 103.6W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ENE OF DURANGO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILLA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 103.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH (41 KM/H) AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. THE FORECAST TRACK WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING WILMA FARTHER INLAND OVER WEST-CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND WILLA IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB (29.53 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: STORM SURGE LEVELS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN SOUTHERN SINALOA AND NAYARIT WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THIS MORNING.

RAINFALL: RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH WILLA WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH

2018-10-24 09:31

WTPZ34 KNHC 240835 CCA
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Willa Advisory Number 17...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 24 2018

Corrected location relative to Durango Mexico

...WILLA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED OVER WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 103.6W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ENE OF DURANGO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Willa
was located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 103.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h) and
this motion is expected to continue today. The forecast track will
continue to bring Wilma farther inland over west-central and
northern Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast and Willa is expected to
dissipate by early afternoon.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: Storm surge levels along portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico in southern Sinaloa and Nayarit will gradually
subside this morning.

RAINFALL: Rainfall associated with Willa will continue to diminish
today as the depression weakens. Additional rainfall totals of 2
to 4 inches with maximum totals of 6 inches possible from eastern
Durango, northern Zacateca and southern Coahuila. This rain will
cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and
mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface
winds indicated in this advisory.

SURF: Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect
portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central mainland
Mexico, and the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula
during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-24 09:31

WTPZ34 KNHC 240832 RRA
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILLA ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
400 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2018

...WILLA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...
....HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED OVER WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 103.6W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM ENE OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILLA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 103.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH (41 KM/H) AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. THE FORECAST TRACK WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING WILMA FARTHER INLAND OVER WEST-CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND WILLA IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB (29.53 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: STORM SURGE LEVELS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN SOUTHERN SINALOA AND NAYARIT WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THIS MORNING.

RAINFALL: RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH WILLA WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
TODAY AS THE DEPRESSION WEAKENS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2

2018-10-24 09:31

WTPZ34 KNHC 240832
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Willa Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 24 2018

...WILLA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED OVER WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 103.6W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM ENE OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Willa
was located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 103.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h) and
this motion is expected to continue today. The forecast track will
continue to bring Wilma farther inland over west-central and
northern Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast and Willa is expected to
dissipate by early afternoon.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: Storm surge levels along portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico in southern Sinaloa and Nayarit will gradually
subside this morning.

RAINFALL: Rainfall associated with Willa will continue to diminish
today as the depression weakens. Additional rainfall totals of 2
to 4 inches with maximum totals of 6 inches possible from eastern
Durango, northern Zacateca and southern Coahuila. This rain will
cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and
mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface
winds indicated in this advisory.

SURF: Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect
portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central mainland
Mexico, and the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula
during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-24 09:31

WTPZ24 KNHC 240831
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
0900 UTC WED OCT 24 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 103.6W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 103.6W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 104.6W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 26.0N 100.5W...POST-TROP/REMNANT LOW INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

..
FORECASTER STEWART

2018-10-24 06:31

WTPZ34 KNHC 240555 RRA
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM WILLA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
100 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2018

...WILLA RAPIDLY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM INLAND NEAR DURANGO...
....TORRENTIAL RAINS TO CONTINUE OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 104.6W
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM SE OF DURANGO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL COASTAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS FOR MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILLA WAS
LOCATED INLAND MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 104.6
WEST. WILLA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH (32 KM/H),
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
THE FORECAST TRACK WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WILMA FARTHER INLAND OVER
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS, AND WILLA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THIS AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM),
MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB (29.23 INCHES).

2018-10-24 06:31

WTPZ34 KNHC 240555
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Willa Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
100 AM CDT Wed Oct 24 2018

...WILLA RAPIDLY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM INLAND NEAR DURANGO...
...TORRENTIAL RAINS TO CONTINUE OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 104.6W
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM SE OF DURANGO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued all coastal tropical
cyclone warnings for Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Willa was
located inland Mexico near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 104.6
West. Willa is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (32 km/h),
and this motion is expected to continue during the next 12 hours.
The forecast track will continue to bring Wilma farther inland over
west-central Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Continued rapid weakening is forecast during the
next 12 hours, and Willa is expected to dissipate by this afternoon.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km),
mainly near and to the southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: Storm surge levels along portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico in southern Sinaloa and Nayarit will gradually
subside today. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large waves and rough surf conditions.

RAINFALL: Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches,
across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, southern
Sinaloa, and far southern Durango in Mexico. This rainfall will
cause life-threatening flash flooding and landslides.

Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amounts of
1 to 3 inches across the rest of Durango and portions of Zacateca,
southeast Chihuahua, and Coahuila, with local amounts to 5 inches
possible.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue inland across
portions of west-central mainland Mexico this morning.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

SURF: Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect
portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central mainland
Mexico, and the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula
during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-24 04:31

WTNT82 EGRR 240356

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 24.10.2018

HURRICANE WILLA ANALYSED POSITION : 22.4N 105.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP242018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.10.2018 0 22.4N 105.9W 985 50
1200UTC 24.10.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 13.6N 116.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.10.2018 24 13.5N 117.0W 1008 25
1200UTC 25.10.2018 36 13.7N 117.7W 1008 25
0000UTC 26.10.2018 48 13.8N 118.8W 1008 21
1200UTC 26.10.2018 60 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 24.1N 52.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.10.2018 84 24.1N 52.1W 1008 34
0000UTC 28.10.2018 96 23.0N 54.0W 1008 29
1200UTC 28.10.2018 108 22.8N 56.2W 1008 30
0000UTC 29.10.2018 120 23.0N 58.7W 1008 30
1200UTC 29.10.2018 132 24.0N 60.8W 1008 28
0000UTC 30.10.2018 144 25.2N 61.6W 1007 28

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 13.0N 164.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.10.2018 96 13.7N 164.8W 1004 28
1200UTC 28.10.2018 108 15.1N 165.4W 1003 32
0000UTC 29.10.2018 120 16.4N 165.1W 1002 36
1200UTC 29.10.2018 132 17.2N 164.2W 1000 40
0000UTC 30.10.2018 144 18.7N 163.4W 1002 34

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 8.9N 103.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.10.2018 144 9.4N 104.6W 1008 23


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 240356

2018-10-24 04:31

WTNT80 EGRR 240356

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 24.10.2018

HURRICANE WILLA ANALYSED POSITION : 22.4N 105.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP242018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 24.10.2018 22.4N 105.9W MODERATE
12UTC 24.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 13.6N 116.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 25.10.2018 13.5N 117.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 25.10.2018 13.7N 117.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.10.2018 13.8N 118.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 24.1N 52.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 27.10.2018 24.1N 52.1W WEAK
00UTC 28.10.2018 23.0N 54.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.10.2018 22.8N 56.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.10.2018 23.0N 58.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.10.2018 24.0N 60.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.10.2018 25.2N 61.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 13.0N 164.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 28.10.2018 13.7N 164.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.10.2018 15.1N 165.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.10.2018 16.4N 165.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.10.2018 17.2N 164.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.10.2018 18.7N 163.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 8.9N 103.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 30.10.2018 9.4N 104.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 240356

2018-10-24 03:31

WTPZ44 KNHC 240231 RRA
TCDEP4

HURRICANE WILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
1000 PM CDT TUE OCT 23 2018

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT AT 0100 UTC, THE EYE OF WILLA CROSSED
THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR ISLA DEL BOSQUE, SINALOA ABOUT 50 MILES
(80 KM) SOUTHEAST OF MAZATLAN. WILLA MADE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY 3
HURRICANE WITH ESTIMATED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 105 KT. THE HURRICANE
IS ALREADY INLAND AND STILL HAS AN EYE FEATURE SURROUNDED BY A RING
OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER, THE EYE IS BEGINNING TO GRADUALLY
FADE ON SATELLITE. THE WINDS ARE PROBABLY ALREADY LOWER, AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 100 KT. WILLA IS FORECAST TO MOVE
FARTHER INLAND OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO RESULTING
IN RAPID WEAKENING. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT BY TOMORROW, THE CYCLONE
WILL NO LONGER HAVE A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND DISSIPATE.

SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE EYE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST A LITTLE FASTER, ABOUT 15 KT. THE HURRICANE IS WELL
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, AND THIS FLOW PATTERN
SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED UNTIL DISSIPATION OVER WESTERN MEXICO TOMORROW.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS STILL OCCURRING ALONG THE COASTS
OF SOUTHERN SINALOA AND NAYARIT STATES IN WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO NEAR THE PATH OF WILLA.

2. DAMAGING AND LIFE-THREATENING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO.

3. HEAVY RAINFALL FROM WILLA IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING

2018-10-24 03:31

WTPZ44 KNHC 240231
TCDEP4

Hurricane Willa Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018

Satellite images indicate that at 0100 UTC, the eye of Willa crossed
the coast of Mexico near Isla del Bosque, Sinaloa about 50 miles
(80 km) southeast of Mazatlan. Willa made landfall as a Category 3
hurricane with estimated sustained winds of 105 kt. The hurricane
is already inland and still has an eye feature surrounded by a ring
of very deep convection. However, the eye is beginning to gradually
fade on satellite. The winds are probably already lower, and the
initial intensity is set at 100 kt. Willa is forecast to move
farther inland over the high mountains of western Mexico resulting
in rapid weakening. It is anticipated that by tomorrow, the cyclone
will no longer have a low-level circulation and dissipate.

Satellite fixes indicate that the eye has been moving toward the
northeast a little faster, about 15 kt. The hurricane is well
embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies, and this flow pattern
should steer the cyclone on this general track with an increase in
forward speed until dissipation over western Mexico tomorrow.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is still occurring along the coasts
of southern Sinaloa and Nayarit states in west-central and
southwestern Mexico near the path of Willa.

2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds should
continue within the hurricane warning area during the next several
hours and continue to spread inland across the mountainous areas of
west-central Mexico.

3. Heavy rainfall from Willa is likely to produce life-threatening
flash flooding and landslides over much of southwestern and
west-central Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 23.2N 105.5W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
12H 24/1200Z 25.0N 103.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-10-24 03:31

WTPZ34 KNHC 240230 RRA
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILLA ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
1000 PM CDT TUE OCT 23 2018

...EYE OF WILLA MOVING FARTHER INLAND TOWARD DURANGO...
....RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 105.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM E OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
LAS ISLAS MARIAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
.. NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILLA WAS LOCATED
INLAND MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 105.5 WEST. WILLA
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH (28 KM/H), AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE
FORECAST TRACK WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WILMA FARTHER INLAND OVER

2018-10-24 03:31

WTPZ34 KNHC 240230
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Willa Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...EYE OF WILLA MOVING FARTHER INLAND TOWARD DURANGO...
...RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 105.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM E OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning for
Las Islas Marias.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to San Blas
* North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Willa was located
inland Mexico near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 105.5 West. Willa
is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue during the next 12 to 24 hours. The
forecast track will continue to bring Wilma farther inland over
western Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Willa is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Very rapid weakening is forecast during the
next 12 hours, and Willa is expected to dissipate on Wednesday

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge is still occurring
along portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico in southern
Sinaloa and Nayarit. Near the coast, the surge is accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches,
across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, southern
Sinaloa, and far southern Durango in Mexico. This rainfall will
cause life-threatening flash flooding and landslides.

Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1
to 3 inches across the rest of Durango and portions of Zacateca,
southeast Chihuahua, and Coahuila, with local amounts to 5 inches
possible.

WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue within the hurricane
warning area along the coast of mainland Mexico this evening but
will gradually begin to subside early Wednesday. Tropical storm
conditions will continue along the coast of mainland Mexico within
the warning area through tonight.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

SURF: Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect
portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central mainland
Mexico, and the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula
during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-10-24 03:31

WTPZ24 KNHC 240230
TCMEP4

HURRICANE WILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
0300 UTC WED OCT 24 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
LAS ISLAS MARIAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
.. NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 105.5W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 180SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 105.5W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 106.0W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.0N 103.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 105.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

...
FORECASTER AVILA

2018-10-24 01:31

WTPZ64 KNHC 240104
TCUEP4

HURRICANE WILLA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
700 PM MDT TUE OCT 23 2018

...CATEGORY 3 WILLA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR ISLA DEL BOSQUE, SINALOA...

AT 700 PM MDT, SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT WILLA HAS MADE
LANDFALL NEAR ISLA DEL BOSQUE, SINALOA, OR ABOUT 10 MILES (15 KM)
SOUTH OF ESCUINAPA. MAXIMUM WINDS AT LANDFALL WERE ESTIMATED TO BE
120 MPH (195 KM/H), WITH A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 965 MB (28.50
INCHES).

A MEXICAN WEATHER STATION NEAR MARISMAS NACIONALES RECENTLY REPORTED
A WIND GUST TO 95 MPH (153 KM/H).


SUMMARY OF 700 PM MDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 105.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SE OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 030 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES

...
FORECASTER BLAKE

2018-10-24 01:31

WTPZ34 KNHC 232343 RRA
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILLA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
600 PM MDT TUE OCT 23 2018

...EYE OF WILLA ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST
OF MEXICO...
....DO NOT VENTURE OUT INTO THE RELATIVE CALM OF THE EYE SINCE
HAZARDOUS WINDS WILL SUDDENLY INCREASE AS THE EYE PASSES...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 106.0W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSE OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN, INCLUDING LAS ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
.. NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE WILLA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 106.0 WEST. WILLA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). A FASTER MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK,

2018-10-24 00:31

WTPZ34 KNHC 232343
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Willa Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
600 PM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...EYE OF WILLA ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST
OF MEXICO...
...DO NOT VENTURE OUT INTO THE RELATIVE CALM OF THE EYE SINCE
HAZARDOUS WINDS WILL SUDDENLY INCREASE AS THE EYE PASSES...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 106.0W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSE OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Mazatlan, including Las Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to San Blas
* North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Willa was located
near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 106.0 West. Willa is moving
toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A faster motion
toward the northeast is expected tonight. On the forecast track,
the eye of Willa will make landfall along the coast of west-central
Mexico within the hurricane warning area within the next hour or so.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Willa is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected before
Willa crosses the coast of Mexico. Very rapid weakening is expected
after landfall, and Willa is expected to dissipate over northern
Mexico on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge is occurring along
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico in southern Sinaloa
and Nayarit, with the highest surge likely to occur near and to the
south of where the center of Willa makes landfall. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches,
across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, southern
Sinaloa, and far southern Durango in Mexico. This rainfall will
cause life-threatening flash flooding and landslides.

Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1
to 3 inches across the rest of Durango and portions of Zacateca,
southeast Chihuahua, and Coahuila, with local amounts to 5 inches
possible.

WIND: Hurricane conditions will gradually subside in Las Islas
Marias. Hurricane conditions will continue to spread into the
hurricane warning area along the coast of mainland Mexico this
evening. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coast of
mainland Mexico within the warning area through tonight.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

SURF: Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect
portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central mainland
Mexico, and the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula
during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

2018-10-23 21:31

WTPZ44 KNHC 232035 RRA
TCDEP4

HURRICANE WILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
300 PM MDT TUE OCT 23 2018

WILLA'S EARLIER EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE APPEARS TO HAVE FINALLY
ENDED WITH THE EROSION OF THE SMALL INNER EYE AND THE OUTER EYE
BECOMING BETTER DEFINED IN MICROWAVE DATA. THE EYE HAS ALSO WARMED
AND BECOME MORE EVIDENT IN INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THAT
FLEW INTO WILLA EARLIER TODAY MEASURED A PEAK 700-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WIND OF 109 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AND SFMR WINDS OF AROUND
100 KT. SINCE THE AIRCRAFT WAS ONLY ABLE TO PERFORM A SINGLE PASS
THROUGH EACH QUADRANT, THERE IS LIKELY SOME UNDERSAMPLING SO THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 105 KT.

SATELLITE AND THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT FIXES SHOW THAT WILLA IS MOVING
A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST, OR AROUND 030/9 KT. THE
HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS PASSING NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THAT
THE CENTER OF WILLA WILL REACH THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO VERY
SOON, AND THEN TRACK INLAND OVER CENTRAL MEXICO TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH THIS
CYCLE, AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL TRACK.

ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF WILLA HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT
THIS AFTERNOON, LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE
HURRICANE REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR AND THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MAINLAND MEXICO WILL CAUSE

2018-10-23 21:31

WTPZ44 KNHC 232035
TCDEP4

Hurricane Willa Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
300 PM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018

Willa's earlier eyewall replacement cycle appears to have finally
ended with the erosion of the small inner eye and the outer eye
becoming better defined in microwave data. The eye has also warmed
and become more evident in infrared and visible satellite imagery
this afternoon. The Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that
flew into Willa earlier today measured a peak 700-mb flight-level
wind of 109 kt in the southeast quadrant and SFMR winds of around
100 kt. Since the aircraft was only able to perform a single pass
through each quadrant, there is likely some undersampling so the
initial wind speed is set at 105 kt.

Satellite and the earlier aircraft fixes show that Willa is moving
a little faster toward the north-northeast, or around 030/9 kt. The
hurricane is expected to accelerate northeastward ahead of a
shortwave trough that is passing near the Baja California peninsula.
The dynamical model guidance is in good agreement in showing that
the center of Willa will reach the coast of west-central Mexico very
soon, and then track inland over central Mexico tonight and
Wednesday. The track guidance envelope has not changed much this
cycle, and no significant changes were needed to the previous
official track.

Although the satellite presentation of Willa has improved somewhat
this afternoon, little change in strength is expected before the
hurricane reaches the coast of Mexico. Increasing southwesterly
shear and the mountainous terrain of mainland Mexico will cause
Willa to rapidly weaken after it moves inland tonight and
Wednesday. A 24-h forecast point is provided for continuity, but it
is unlikely that the low-level circulation will survive its passage
over the mountainous terrain for that long of a time period.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is occurring along the coasts
of the Isla Marias, and along the coast of southern Sinaloa and
Nayarit states in west-central and southwestern Mexico near the
path of Willa.

2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds will reach
the coast of west-central Mexico within the hurricane warning area
within the next few hours. Hurricane-force winds will also extend
inland across the mountainous areas of west-central Mexico as Willa
moves inland.

3. Heavy rainfall from Willa is likely to produce life-threatening
flash flooding and landslides over much of southwestern and
west-central Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 22.2N 106.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 23.7N 104.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
24H 24/1800Z 25.7N 101.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-23 21:31

WTPZ34 KNHC 232034 RRA
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILLA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
300 PM MDT TUE OCT 23 2018

...EYE OF WILLA APPROACHING THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...
....LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND RAINFALL SPREADING
ONSHORE...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 106.4W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM N OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN, INCLUDING LAS ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
.. NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILLA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 106.4 WEST. WILLA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). A FASTER MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK,

2018-10-23 21:31

WTPZ34 KNHC 232034
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Willa Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
300 PM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...EYE OF WILLA APPROACHING THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND RAINFALL SPREADING
ONSHORE...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 106.4W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM N OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Mazatlan, including Las Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to San Blas
* North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.


For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Willa was located
near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 106.4 West. Willa is moving
toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A faster motion
toward the northeast is expected tonight. On the forecast track,
the center of Willa will approach the coast of west-central
Mexico this afternoon, and make landfall within the hurricane
warning area along the west-central coast of mainland Mexico early
this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Willa is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected before
Willa reaches the coast of Mexico. Rapid weakening is expected
after landfall and Willa is expected to dissipate over northern
Mexico on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km). An automated observing site on Las Islas Marias recently
reported a sustained wind of 88 mph (142 km/h) with a gust to 112
mph (180 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge is occurring along
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico in southern Sinaloa
and Nayarit, with the highest surge likely to occur near and to the
south of where the center of Willa makes landfall. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches,
across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, southern
Sinaloa, and far southern Durango in Mexico. This rainfall will
cause life-threatening flash flooding and landslides.

Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1
to 3 inches across the rest of Durango and portions of Zacateca,
southeast Chihuahua, and Coahuila, with local amounts to 5 inches
possible.

WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue over Las Islas Marias for
a few more hours, and will continue to spread into the hurricane
warning area along the coast of mainland Mexico this evening.
Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coast of mainland
Mexico within the warning area through tonight.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

SURF: Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect
portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central mainland
Mexico, and the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula
during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-23 21:31

WTPZ24 KNHC 232034
TCMEP4

HURRICANE WILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
2100 UTC TUE OCT 23 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN... INCLUDING LAS ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
... NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 106.4W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 180SE 210SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 106.4W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 106.7W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 23.7N 104.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 25.7N 101.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N 106.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

....
FORECASTER BROWN

2018-10-23 18:31

WTPZ34 KNHC 231743 RRA
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILLA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
1200 PM MDT TUE OCT 23 2018

...EYE OF WILLA PASSING NEAR LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO...
....CONDITIONS DETERIORATING ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
COASTS OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 106.7W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN, INCLUDING LAS ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
.. NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILLA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 106.7 WEST. WILLA IS MOVING

2018-10-23 18:31

WTPZ34 KNHC 231743
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Willa Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
1200 PM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...EYE OF WILLA PASSING NEAR LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO...
...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
COASTS OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 106.7W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Mazatlan, including Las Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to San Blas
* North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of west-central and
southwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Willa was located
near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 106.7 West. Willa is moving
toward the north-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). A faster motion
toward the northeast is expected by this evening. On the forecast
track, the center of Willa will approach the coast of west-central
Mexico this afternoon, and make landfall within the hurricane
warning area along the west-central coast of mainland Mexico this
evening.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Willa is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. While gradual weakening is forecast today,
Willa is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it reaches the
coast of Mexico this evening. Rapid weakening is expected after
landfall tonight and Willa is expected to dissipate over northern
Mexico on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from data from an Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge is likely along
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico in southern Sinaloa
and Nayarit, especially near and to the south of where the center of
Willa makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches,
across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, southern
Sinaloa, and far southern Durango in Mexico. This rainfall will
cause life-threatening flash flooding and landslides.

Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1
to 3 inches across the rest of Durango and portions of Zacateca,
southeast Chihuahua, and Coahuila, with local amounts to 5 inches
possible.

WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue over Las Islas Maria
this afternoon, and will spread into the hurricane warning area
along the coast of mainland Mexico within the next few hours.
Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward along
the coast of mainland Mexico within the warning area through this
evening.

SURF: Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect
portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central mainland
Mexico, and the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula
during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-23 16:31

WTNT82 EGRR 231556

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 23.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICENTE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.0N 102.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP232018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.10.2018 0 18.0N 102.3W 1006 59
0000UTC 24.10.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE WILLA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.0N 107.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP242018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.10.2018 0 21.0N 107.2W 980 60
0000UTC 24.10.2018 12 22.5N 106.1W 984 53
1200UTC 24.10.2018 24 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 12.8N 115.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.10.2018 24 13.2N 116.0W 1008 25
0000UTC 25.10.2018 36 13.4N 115.8W 1008 25
1200UTC 25.10.2018 48 13.5N 116.7W 1009 23
0000UTC 26.10.2018 60 13.3N 117.6W 1008 22
1200UTC 26.10.2018 72 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 26.1N 47.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.10.2018 96 26.4N 49.1W 1004 38
0000UTC 28.10.2018 108 25.8N 52.3W 1002 34
1200UTC 28.10.2018 120 25.2N 54.1W 1001 40
0000UTC 29.10.2018 132 25.5N 57.2W 1001 35
1200UTC 29.10.2018 144 25.5N 59.4W 1002 31

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 13.5N 160.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.10.2018 108 13.9N 161.2W 1005 28
1200UTC 28.10.2018 120 14.7N 161.5W 1006 30
0000UTC 29.10.2018 132 15.2N 162.0W 1006 29
1200UTC 29.10.2018 144 16.2N 162.0W 1006 31


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 231556

2018-10-23 16:31

WTNT80 EGRR 231556

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 23.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICENTE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.0N 102.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP232018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 23.10.2018 18.0N 102.3W WEAK
00UTC 24.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE WILLA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.0N 107.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP242018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 23.10.2018 21.0N 107.2W STRONG
00UTC 24.10.2018 22.5N 106.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 12.8N 115.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 24.10.2018 13.2N 116.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 25.10.2018 13.4N 115.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.10.2018 13.5N 116.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.10.2018 13.3N 117.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 26.1N 47.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 27.10.2018 26.4N 49.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 28.10.2018 25.8N 52.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.10.2018 25.2N 54.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.10.2018 25.5N 57.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.10.2018 25.5N 59.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 13.5N 160.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 28.10.2018 13.9N 161.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.10.2018 14.7N 161.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.10.2018 15.2N 162.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.10.2018 16.2N 162.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 231556

2018-10-23 15:31

WTPZ44 KNHC 231503 RRA
TCDEP4

HURRICANE WILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
900 AM MDT TUE OCT 23 2018

WILLA'S OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS, WITH SOME EVIDENCE OF A SMALL INNER CORE AND
AND AN OUTER EYEWALL. RECENT MICROWAVE DATA AND REPORTS FROM AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ALSO INDICATE THAT
CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS ARE PRESENT. THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT JUST
COMPLETED ITS FIRST PASS INTO THE CENTER AND FOUND PEAK 700-MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 107 KT, AND SFMR WINDS OF 99 KT. THE PLANE
REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 966 MB, WHICH WAS HIGHER THAN
PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. BASED ON THE PRELIMINARY AIRCRAFT DATA AND A
BLEND OF DVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM THE VARIOUS AGENCIES, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 110 KT. THE PLANE SHOULD PROVIDE A
MORE ACCURATE ASSESSMENT OF WILLA'S INTENSITY AS IT CONTINUES ITS
MISSION DURING THE NEW FEW HOURS.

WILLA IS MOVING A LITTLE EAST OF DUE NORTH OR 010/5 KT. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE WILLA TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
THIS MORNING, AND THE HURRICANE SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD BY
TONIGHT. THE CORE OF WILLA WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLA MARIAS WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST
OF MEXICO THIS EVENING. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
AND THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.

ALTHOUGH WILLA IS MOVING OVER AN AREA OF DEEP WARM WATER, INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY TO CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THE

2018-10-23 15:31

WTPZ44 KNHC 231503
TCDEP4

Hurricane Willa Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
900 AM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018

Willa's overall satellite presentation has not changed much during
the past few hours, with some evidence of a small inner core and
and an outer eyewall. Recent microwave data and reports from an
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft also indicate that
concentric eyewalls are present. The reconnaissance aircraft just
completed its first pass into the center and found peak 700-mb
flight-level winds of 107 kt, and SFMR winds of 99 kt. The plane
reported a minimum pressure of 966 mb, which was higher than
previously estimated. Based on the preliminary aircraft data and a
blend of Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from the various agencies, the
initial intensity is set at 110 kt. The plane should provide a
more accurate assessment of Willa's intensity as it continues its
mission during the new few hours.

Willa is moving a little east of due north or 010/5 kt. A
shortwave trough approaching the west coast of the Baja California
peninsula is expected to cause Willa to turn north-northeastward
this morning, and the hurricane should accelerate northeastward by
tonight. The core of Willa will move over the Isla Marias within
the next few hours, and make landfall along the west-central coast
of Mexico this evening. The track guidance is in good agreement,
and the updated NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous
advisory.

Although Willa is moving over an area of deep warm water, increasing
southwesterly shear is likely to cause gradual weakening as the
hurricane approaches the coast. Despite the forecast decrease in
the peak winds, Willa is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane
through landfall, bringing life-threatening storm surge, wind, and
rainfall hazards to Las Islas Marias and portions of west-central
and southwestern Mexico. After landfall, Willa will rapidly weaken
over the mountains of mainland Mexico, and dissipation is expected
on Wednesday. Moisture from the remnants of this system is forecast
to spread northeastward over northern Mexico and portions of Texas
and the northern Gulf Coast where a swath of heavy rainfall is
expected.

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected along the coasts
of the Isla Marias, and along the coast of southern Sinaloa and
Nayarit states in west-central and southwestern Mexico near the
path of Willa.

2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected
over the Isla Marias, and within the hurricane warning area along
the coast of west- central Mexico. Hurricane-force winds will also
extend inland across the mountainous areas of west-central Mexico
as Willa moves inland.

3. Heavy rainfall from Willa is likely to produce life-threatening
flash flooding and landslides over much of southwestern and
west-central Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 21.4N 106.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 22.7N 105.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 24.9N 102.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 25/0000Z 26.7N 99.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-23 15:31

WTPZ34 KNHC 231500 RRA
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILLA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
900 AM MDT TUE OCT 23 2018

...AIRCRAFT FINDS THE CORE OF WILLA PASSING OVER LAS ISLAS MARIAS
MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND
RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 106.9W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM WSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN, INCLUDING LAS ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
. NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILLA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 106.9 WEST. WILLA IS MOVING

2018-10-23 15:31

WTPZ34 KNHC 231500
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Willa Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
900 AM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...AIRCRAFT FINDS THE CORE OF WILLA PASSING OVER LAS ISLAS MARIAS
MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND
RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 106.9W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM WSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Mazatlan, including Las Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to San Blas
* North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of west-central and
southwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Willa was located
near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 106.9 West. Willa is moving
toward the north-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). A faster motion
toward the northeast is expected by this evening. On the forecast
track, the center of Willa will move over Las Islas Marias within
the next few hours, and make landfall within the hurricane warning
area along the west-central coast of mainland Mexico this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Willa is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. While gradual weakening is forecast today,
Willa is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it reaches the
coast of Mexico. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall tonight
and continuing into Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 966 mb (28.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge is likely along
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico in southern Sinaloa
and Nayarit, especially near and to the south of where the center of
Willa makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches,
across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, southern
Sinaloa, and far southern Durango in Mexico. This rainfall will
cause life-threatening flash flooding and landslides.

Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1
to 3 inches across the rest of Durango and portions of Zacateca,
southeast Chihuahua, and Coahuila, with local amounts to 5 inches
possible.

WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue over Las Islas Maria
today, and will spread into the hurricane warning area along
the coast of mainland Mexico this afternoon. Tropical storm
conditions are occurring on Las Islas Marias, and will continue to
spread northward along the coast of mainland Mexico within the
warning area today.

SURF: Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect
portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central mainland
Mexico, and the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula
Swells during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-23 15:31

WTPZ24 KNHC 231500 RRA
TCMEP4

HURRICANE WILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
1500 UTC TUE OCT 23 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN... INCLUDING LAS ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
... NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 106.9W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 106.9W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 107.1W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 22.7N 105.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 24.9N 102.9W...INLAND

2018-10-23 15:31

WTPZ24 KNHC 231500
TCMEP4

HURRICANE WILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
1500 UTC TUE OCT 23 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN... INCLUDING LAS ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
* NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 106.9W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 106.9W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 107.1W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 22.7N 105.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 24.9N 102.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 26.7N 99.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 106.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

2018-10-23 12:31

WTPZ34 KNHC 231151 RRA
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILLA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
600 AM MDT TUE OCT 23 2018

...CORE OF DANGEROUS WILLA TO PASS OVER LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
VERY SOON...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND
RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 107.1W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM WSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM SSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN, INCLUDING LAS ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
. NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILLA WAS LOCATED

2018-10-23 12:31

WTPZ34 KNHC 231151
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Willa Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
600 AM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...CORE OF DANGEROUS WILLA TO PASS OVER LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
VERY SOON...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND
RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 107.1W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM WSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM SSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Mazatlan, including Las Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to San Blas
* North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of west-central and
southwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Willa was located
near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 107.1 West. Willa is moving
toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the north-
northeast is expected later this morning, followed by a faster
motion toward the northeast by this evening. On the forecast track,
the center of Willa will move near or over Las Islas Marias later
this morning and afternoon, and make landfall within the hurricane
warning area along the west-central coast of mainland Mexico late
this afternoon or this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Willa is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While gradual weakening is
forecast today, Willa is expected to be a dangerous major hurricane
when it reaches the coast of Mexico. Rapid weakening is expected
after landfall tonight and continuing into Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge is likely along
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico in southern Sinaloa
and Nayarit, especially near and to the south of where the center of
Willa makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches,
across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, southern
Sinaloa, and far southern Durango in Mexico. This rainfall will
cause life-threatening flash flooding and landslides.

Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amount of
2 to 4 inches across the rest of Durango and portions of Zacateca,
southeast Chihuahua, and Coahuila, with local amounts to 6 inches
possible. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Las Islas Maria today,
and within the hurricane warning area along the coast of mainland
Mexico beginning this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are
occurring on Las Islas Marias, and tropical storm conditions will
spread northward along the coast of mainland Mexico within the
warning area today.

SURF: Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect
portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central mainland
Mexico, and the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula
Swells during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-23 09:31

WTPZ44 KNHC 230838 RRA
TCDEP4

HURRICANE WILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
300 AM MDT TUE OCT 23 2018

WILLA'S OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY
DEGRADE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
BRIEF ATTEMPTS AT REDEVELOPMENT OF AN INNER-CORE RING OF DEEP
CONVECTION. HOWEVER, DRY INTRUSIONS FROM THE MOAT REGION BETWEEN THE
LARGER OUTER EYEWALL AND THE SMALLER INNER CORE HAVE THUS FAR
PREVENTED THE REFORMATION OF AN INNER EYEWALL. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN STEADILY DECREASING, AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
IS SET AT 115 KT, BASED ON A AVERAGE OF THE SUBJECTIVE T- AND
CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND A UW-CIMSS ADT OBJECTIVE ESTIMATE OF
T6.0/115 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO RECONNOITER HURRICANE WILLA LATER THIS MORNING,
PROVIDING MORE DETAILED INTENSITY INFORMATION.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS NORTHWARD, BUT AT A SLOWER
FORWARD SPEED, OR 360/04 KT. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING. WILLA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO, AND THEN RECURVE
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED
BY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, WITH
THAT MOTION CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEW NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, NEAR THE FSSE AND GFS MODEL TRACKS.

THERE HAS BEEN NO MICROWAVE IMAGERY SINCE AROUND 0100Z TO PROVIDE
INFORMATION ON THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). HOWEVER,

2018-10-23 09:31

WTPZ44 KNHC 230838
TCDEP4

Hurricane Willa Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
300 AM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018

Willa's overall satellite presentation has continued to slowly
degrade since the previous advisory, with the exception of a few
brief attempts at redevelopment of an inner-core ring of deep
convection. However, dry intrusions from the moat region between the
larger outer eyewall and the smaller inner core have thus far
prevented the reformation of an inner eyewall. Satellite intensity
estimates have been steadily decreasing, and the advisory intensity
is set at 115 kt, based on a average of the subjective T- and
CI-numbers from TAFB and a UW-CIMSS ADT objective estimate of
T6.0/115 kt. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to reconnoiter Hurricane Willa later this morning,
providing more detailed intensity information.

The initial motion estimate remains northward, but at a slower
forward speed, or 360/04 kt. There are no significant changes to the
previous track forecast or reasoning. Willa is expected to move
slowly northward this morning around the western periphery of a
deep-layer ridge located over central Mexico, and then recurve
toward the north-northeast and northeast at a faster forward speed
by this afternoon ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough, with
that motion continuing into this evening and Wednesday. The new NHC
track forecast is near the eastern edge of the tightly packed
guidance envelope, near the FSSE and GFS model tracks.

There has been no microwave imagery since around 0100Z to provide
information on the eyewall replacement cycle (ERC). However,
conventional infrared satellite imagery suggests that the ERC is
still ongoing based on the appearance of a partial moat or clear
region in the northern semicircle of the inner core. Willa is
currently moving over warmer and deeper water as indicated by
upper-ocean heat content (UOHC) values greater than 50 units. This
favorable ocean condition is expected to continue along the forecast
track for another 12 hours or so, which could help to offset the
weakening rate due to the gradual increase in the southwesterly wind
shear. By 18 h, or just before landfall, the shear is forecast to
increase to more than 20 kt and the warm water beneath the hurricane
is expected to become more shallow, a combination that could lead to
significant upwelling and weakening. However, the official intensity
forecast follows the consensus of the various intensity models,
keeping Willa's intensity near 100 kt at landfall, which is similar
to the FSSE and HCCA corrected-consensus models. Despite the
forecast decrease in the peak winds, Willa is expected to remain a
dangerous major hurricane through landfall, bringing
life-threatening storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards to Las
Islas Marias and portions of west-central and southwestern Mexico
later today. After moving inland, Willa will rapidly weaken, with
dissipation forecast by Wednesday over the high terrain of Mexico.
However, deep moisture from the remnants of Willa is forecast to
spread northeastward over northern Mexico and portions of Texas
where a swath of heavy rainfall is expected midweek.

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected today along the coasts
of the Isla Marias, and along the coast of southern Sinaloa and
Nayarit states in west-central and southwestern Mexico near the
path of Willa. Residents should rush preparations to completion to
protect life and property and follow any advice given by local
officials.

2. Everyone in the Isla Marias, and within the hurricane warning
area along the coast of west-central Mexico should prepare for life-
threatening major hurricane winds associated with the core of
Willa. Hurricane force winds will also extend inland across the
mountainous areas of west-central Mexico as Willa moves inland.

3. Heavy rainfall from Willa is likely to produce life-threatening
flash flooding and landslides over much of southwestern and
west-central Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 20.8N 107.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 22.0N 106.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 23.8N 104.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/1800Z 25.8N 102.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-23 09:31

WTPZ34 KNHC 230837 RRA
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILLA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
300 AM MDT TUE OCT 23 2018

...DANGEROUS WILLA MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO...
....EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND
RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 107.3W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN, INCLUDING LAS ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
.. NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO
12 HOURS FOR ISLAS MARIAS, AND WITHIN 12 TO 18 HOURS FOR MAINLAND
MEXICO. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

2018-10-23 09:31

WTPZ34 KNHC 230837
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Willa Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
300 AM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...DANGEROUS WILLA MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND
RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 107.3W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Mazatlan, including Las Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to San Blas
* North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6 to
12 hours for Islas Marias, and within 12 to 18 hours for mainland
Mexico. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of west-central and
southwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Willa was located
near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 107.3 West. Willa is moving
toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the north-
northeast is expected later this morning, followed by a faster
motion toward the northeast by this evening. On the forecast track,
the center of Willa will move near or over Las Islas Marias later
this morning and afternoon, and make landfall within the hurricane
warning area along the west-central coast of mainland Mexico later
afternoon or this evening.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 130 mph (215 km/h)
with higher gusts. Willa is an extremely dangerous category 4
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While gradual
weakening is forecast today, Willa is expected to be a dangerous
major hurricane when it reaches the coast of Mexico. Rapid weakening
is expected after landfall tonight and continuing into Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge is likely along
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico in southern Sinaloa
and Nayarit, especially near and to the south of where the center of
Willa makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches,
across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, southern
Sinaloa, and far southern Durango in Mexico. This rainfall will
cause life-threatening flash flooding and landslides.

Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amount of
2 to 4 inches across the rest of Durango and portions of Zacateca,
southeast Chihuahua, and Coahuila, with local amounts to 6 inches
possible. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area on Las Islas Marias this morning, and beginning this
afternoon along the coast of mainland Mexico. Tropical storm
conditions are occurring on Las Islas Marias, and tropical storm
conditions are expected later this morning along the coast of
mainland Mexico.

SURF: Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect
portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico
during the next few days. Swells should begin to affect portions
of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula later today.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-23 09:31

WTPZ24 KNHC 230836 RRA
TCMEP4

HURRICANE WILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
0900 UTC TUE OCT 23 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN... INCLUDING LAS ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
... NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
6 TO 12 HOURS FOR ISLA MARIAS...AND WITHIN 12 TO 18 HOURS FOR
MAINLAND MEXICO. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 107.3W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 210SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 107.3W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 107.3W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 22.0N 106.5W

2018-10-23 09:31

WTPZ24 KNHC 230836
TCMEP4

HURRICANE WILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
0900 UTC TUE OCT 23 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN... INCLUDING LAS ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
* NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
6 TO 12 HOURS FOR ISLA MARIAS...AND WITHIN 12 TO 18 HOURS FOR
MAINLAND MEXICO. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 107.3W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 210SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 107.3W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 107.3W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 22.0N 106.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 23.8N 104.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 25.8N 102.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 107.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

2018-10-23 06:31

WTPZ34 KNHC 230600 RRA
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILLA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
1200 AM MDT TUE OCT 23 2018

...DANGEROUS WILLA EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE,
WIND, AND RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 107.3W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...225 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN, INCLUDING LAS ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
.. NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILLA WAS LOCATED

2018-10-23 06:31

WTPZ34 KNHC 230600
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Willa Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
1200 AM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018

...DANGEROUS WILLA EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE,
WIND, AND RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 107.3W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...225 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Mazatlan, including Las Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to San Blas
* North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of west-central and
southwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Willa was located
near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 107.3 West. Willa is moving
toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north-
northeast is expected later this morning, followed by a faster
motion toward the northeast by this evening. On the forecast track,
the center of Willa will move near or over Las Islas Marias later
this morning and afternoon and make landfall within the hurricane
warning area along the west-central coast of mainland Mexico later
afternoon or this evening.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 140 mph (225 km/h)
with higher gusts. Willa is an extremely dangerous category 4
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While gradual
weakening is forecast today, Willa is expected to be a dangerous
major hurricane when it reaches the coast of Mexico. Rapid weakening
is expected after landfall tonight and Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb (27.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge is likely along
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico in southern Sinaloa
and Nayarit, especially near and to the south of where the center of
Willa makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches,
across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, southern
Sinaloa, and far southern Durango in Mexico. This rainfall will
cause life-threatening flash flooding and landslides.

Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amount of 2 to
4 inches across the rest of Durango and portions of Zacateca,
southeast Chihuahua, and Coahuila, with local amounts to 6 inches
possible. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area beginning this afternoon, with tropical storm
conditions expected later this morning. Tropical storm conditions
are expected within the tropical storm warning areas this morning
and continuing into this afternoon.

SURF: Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect
portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico
during the next few days. Swells should begin to affect portions
of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula later today.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-23 04:32

WTNT82 EGRR 230356

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 23.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.7N 116.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP912018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 23.10.2018 0 11.7N 116.5W 1008 20
1200UTC 23.10.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM VICENTE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.7N 101.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP232018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 23.10.2018 0 15.7N 101.6W 1001 40
1200UTC 23.10.2018 12 17.9N 102.6W 1001 57
0000UTC 24.10.2018 24 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE WILLA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.0N 107.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP242018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 23.10.2018 0 20.0N 107.4W 981 55
1200UTC 23.10.2018 12 21.0N 107.1W 982 59
0000UTC 24.10.2018 24 22.1N 106.2W 986 61
1200UTC 24.10.2018 36 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 13.3N 115.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.10.2018 48 13.4N 115.8W 1008 23
1200UTC 25.10.2018 60 13.5N 116.4W 1009 24
0000UTC 26.10.2018 72 13.4N 117.2W 1008 24
1200UTC 26.10.2018 84 13.0N 118.1W 1009 22
0000UTC 27.10.2018 96 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 34.2N 77.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.10.2018 108 36.8N 75.9W 998 43
0000UTC 28.10.2018 120 38.6N 74.8W 997 44
1200UTC 28.10.2018 132 42.4N 73.1W 999 26
0000UTC 29.10.2018 144 47.1N 74.4W 1000 18

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 26.9N 48.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.10.2018 108 26.9N 48.0W 1008 35
0000UTC 28.10.2018 120 27.2N 51.1W 1009 34
1200UTC 28.10.2018 132 26.5N 55.3W 1011 29
0000UTC 29.10.2018 144 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 13.8N 160.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.10.2018 120 14.0N 160.6W 1005 29
1200UTC 28.10.2018 132 14.7N 160.8W 1006 28
0000UTC 29.10.2018 144 15.2N 160.8W 1005 27


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 230356

2018-10-23 04:32

WTNT80 EGRR 230356

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 23.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.7N 116.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP912018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 23.10.2018 11.7N 116.5W WEAK
12UTC 23.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM VICENTE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.7N 101.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP232018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 23.10.2018 15.7N 101.6W WEAK
12UTC 23.10.2018 17.9N 102.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE WILLA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.0N 107.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP242018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 23.10.2018 20.0N 107.4W MODERATE
12UTC 23.10.2018 21.0N 107.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.10.2018 22.1N 106.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 24.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 13.3N 115.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 25.10.2018 13.4N 115.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 25.10.2018 13.5N 116.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.10.2018 13.4N 117.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.10.2018 13.0N 118.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 34.2N 77.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 27.10.2018 36.8N 75.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 28.10.2018 38.6N 74.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.10.2018 42.4N 73.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.10.2018 47.1N 74.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 26.9N 48.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 27.10.2018 26.9N 48.0W WEAK
00UTC 28.10.2018 27.2N 51.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.10.2018 26.5N 55.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 13.8N 160.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 28.10.2018 14.0N 160.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.10.2018 14.7N 160.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.10.2018 15.2N 160.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 230356

2018-10-23 03:31

WTPZ44 KNHC 230234 RRA
TCDEP4

HURRICANE WILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
900 PM MDT MON OCT 22 2018

WILLA'S EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY, BUT AN
SSMIS OVERPASS FROM 0049 UTC SHOWED A REMNANT INNER EYE ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF A LARGER OUTER EYEWALL THAT HAS TAKEN SHAPE OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 125 KT
BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK FINAL-T AND CI NUMBERS FROM
TAFB. GIVEN THAT THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS WELL UNDERWAY AND
THAT MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR NOW AFFECTING THE HURRICANE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE, CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST
THROUGH LANDFALL, AND THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST THROUGH 24
HOURS IS NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. DESPITE THE
FORECAST DECREASE IN THE PEAK WINDS, WILLA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A
DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH LANDFALL, AND WILL BRING LIFE-
THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND RAINFALL HAZARDS TO LAS ISLAS
MARIAS AND PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO ON
TUESDAY. AFTER MOVING INLAND, WILLA WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN, WITH
DISSIPATION FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO.
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF WILLA IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF TEXAS WHERE A
SWATH OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED MIDWEEK.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS NORTHWARD, OR 360/08. THE TRACK
FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED, AS WILLA IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY RECURVE AS IT IS STEERED BY A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED TO THE EAST AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY

2018-10-23 03:31

WTPZ44 KNHC 230234
TCDEP4

Hurricane Willa Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
900 PM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018

Willa's eye is no longer apparent in geostationary imagery, but an
SSMIS overpass from 0049 UTC showed a remnant inner eye along the
northern edge of a larger outer eyewall that has taken shape over
the past few hours. The initial intensity has been lowered to 125 kt
based on a blend of the latest Dvorak Final-T and CI numbers from
TAFB. Given that the eyewall replacement cycle is well underway and
that moderate southwesterly shear now affecting the hurricane is
expected to increase, continued gradual weakening is forecast
through landfall, and the new NHC intensity forecast through 24
hours is near or a bit above the FSU Superensemble. Despite the
forecast decrease in the peak winds, Willa is expected to remain a
dangerous major hurricane through landfall, and will bring life-
threatening storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards to Las Islas
Marias and portions of west-central and southwestern Mexico on
Tuesday. After moving inland, Willa will rapidly weaken, with
dissipation forecast by Wednesday over the high terrain of Mexico.
Moisture from the remnants of Willa is forecast to spread
northeastward over northern Mexico and portions of Texas where a
swath of heavy rainfall is expected midweek.

The initial motion estimate remains northward, or 360/08. The track
forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as Willa is expected to
gradually recurve as it is steered by a large mid-level ridge
centered to the east and a shortwave trough approaching from the
northwest. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly
left of the previous one due to the initial position and motion and
lies along the eastern edge of the guidance envelope near the HCCA
consensus aid. There continue to be differences in the forward speed
of the cyclone as it approaches the coast, and the NHC forecast
remains close to the forward speed of the consensus aids.

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected Tuesday along the
coasts of the Isla Marias, and along the coast of southern Sinaloa
and Nayarit states in west-central and southwestern Mexico near the
path of Willa. Residents should rush preparations to completion to
protect life and property and follow any advice given by local
officials.

2. Everyone in the Isla Marias, and within the hurricane warning
area along the coast of west-central Mexico should prepare for life-
threatening major hurricane winds associated with the core of
Willa. Hurricane force winds will also extend inland across the
mountainous areas of west-central Mexico as Willa moves inland.

3. Heavy rainfall from Willa is likely to produce life-threatening
flash flooding and landslides over much of southwestern and
west-central Mexico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 20.5N 107.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 21.5N 106.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 23.0N 105.8W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/1200Z 25.3N 102.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

2018-10-23 03:31

WTPZ34 KNHC 230232 RRA
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILLA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
900 PM MDT MON OCT 22 2018

...POWERFUL WILLA EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE,
WIND, AND RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 107.2W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN, INCLUDING LAS ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
.. NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILLA WAS LOCATED

2018-10-23 03:31

WTPZ34 KNHC 230232
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Willa Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
900 PM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018

...POWERFUL WILLA EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE,
WIND, AND RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 107.2W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Mazatlan, including Las Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to San Blas
* North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of west-central and
southwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Willa was located
near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 107.2 West. Willa is moving
toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north-
northeast is expected early Tuesday, followed by a faster motion
toward the northeast by late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Willa will move near or over Las Islas Marias early
Tuesday and make landfall within the hurricane warning area along
the west-central coast of mainland Mexico Tuesday afternoon or
evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Willa is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While gradual weakening is
forecast tonight and Tuesday, Willa is expected to be a dangerous
major hurricane when it reaches the coast of Mexico. Rapid weakening
is expected after landfall Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge is likely along
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico in southern Sinaloa
and Nayarit, especially near and to the south of where the center of
Willa makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches,
across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, southern
Sinaloa, and far southern Durango in Mexico. This rainfall will
cause life-threatening flash flooding and landslides.

Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amount of 2 to
4 inches across the rest of Durango and portions of Zacateca,
southeast Chihuahua, and Coahuila, with local amounts to 6 inches
possible. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area beginning Tuesday afternoon, with tropical storm
conditions expected by early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the tropical storm warning areas tonight and
Tuesday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect
portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico
during the next few days. Swells should begin to affect portions
of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula later today.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

2018-10-23 03:31

WTPZ24 KNHC 230231 RRA
TCMEP4

HURRICANE WILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
0300 UTC TUE OCT 23 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN...INCLUDING LAS ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
... NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 107.2W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 937 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 180SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 107.2W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 107.3W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.5N 106.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.

2018-10-23 03:31

WTPZ24 KNHC 230231
TCMEP4

HURRICANE WILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
0300 UTC TUE OCT 23 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN...INCLUDING LAS ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
* NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 107.2W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 937 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 180SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 107.2W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 107.3W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.5N 106.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 23.0N 105.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.3N 102.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 107.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

2018-10-23 00:31

WTPZ34 KNHC 222334 RRA
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILLA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
600 PM MDT MON OCT 22 2018

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILLA EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 107.2W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM SSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN, INCLUDING LAS ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
.. NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

2018-10-23 00:31

WTPZ34 KNHC 222334
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Willa Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
600 PM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILLA EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 107.2W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM SSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Mazatlan, including Las Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to San Blas
* North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of west-central and
southwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Willa was located
near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 107.2 West. Willa is moving
toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through tonight. Willa is forecast to
accelerate toward the north-northeast and move over or very near the
Islas Marias early Tuesday and then make landfall along the west-
central coast of mainland Mexico in the hurricane warning area
Tuesday afternoon or evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Willa is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is forecast
during the next day or so, but Willa is expected to be a dangerous
major hurricane when it reaches the coast of Mexico. Rapid
weakening is expected after landfall Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 933 mb (27.55 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge is likely along
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico in southern Sinaloa
and Nayarit, especially near and to the south of where the center of
Willa makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches,
across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, and southern
Sinaloa in Mexico. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash
flooding and landslides.

Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amount of 2 to
4 inches across portions of Zacateca, Durango, southeast Chihuahua,
and Coahuila in Mexico, with local amounts to 6 inches possible.
This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area beginning Tuesday afternoon, with tropical storm
conditions expected by early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the tropical storm warning areas tonight and
Tuesday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect
portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico
during the next few days. Swells should begin to affect portions
of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula later today.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

2018-10-22 21:32

WTPZ44 KNHC 222039 RRA
TCDEP4

HURRICANE WILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
300 PM MDT MON OCT 22 2018

WILLA CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT AN IMPRESSIVE PRESENTATION IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY, HOWEVER THE SMALL EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD FILLED THIS
AFTERNOON AND AND EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA INDICATED THAT AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE HAD BEGUN. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
DATA T-NUMBERS ARE A LITTLE LOWER THAN THIS MORNING, AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT 135 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT THAT WAS EN ROUTE TO
WILLA AROUND MIDDAY WAS STRUCK BY LIGHTNING IN ONE OF THE OUTER RAIN
BANDS AND HAD TO RETURN TO BASE DUE TO SAFETY ISSUES REGARDING
SOME OF THE ONBOARD EQUIPMENT.

THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING DUE NORTHWARD TODAY AT ABOUT 7 KT.
THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AS WILLA IS CURRENTLY MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE. AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TURN
WILLA NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD, THEN NORTHWARD TOWARD THE WEST-CENTRAL
COAST OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY, AND THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MAKE
LANDFALL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BETWEEN SAN BLAS AND
MAZATLAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TIMING OF LANDFALL, AND THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS NEAR THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS AIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
VARIATIONS IN FORWARD SPEED.

THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE THAT WILLA HAS GONE THROUGH SINCE
ITS FORMATION ON SATURDAY APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED NOW THAT AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT HAS BEGUN. ALTHOUGH THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN

2018-10-22 21:32

WTPZ44 KNHC 222039
TCDEP4

Hurricane Willa Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
300 PM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018

Willa continues to exhibit an impressive presentation in satellite
imagery, however the small eye has become cloud filled this
afternoon and and earlier microwave data indicated that an
eyewall replacement cycle had begun. Subjective and objective
data T-numbers are a little lower than this morning, and the
initial intensity has been set at 135 kt for this advisory. The
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that was en route to
Willa around midday was struck by lightning in one of the outer rain
bands and had to return to base due to safety issues regarding
some of the onboard equipment.

The hurricane has been moving due northward today at about 7 kt.
The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous
advisory as Willa is currently moving around the western portion of
a deep-layer ridge. An approaching shortwave trough should turn
Willa north-northeastward, then northward toward the west-central
coast of Mexico on Tuesday, and the hurricane is forecast to make
landfall within the hurricane warning area between San Blas and
Mazatlan Tuesday afternoon or evening. There are still some model
differences regarding the timing of landfall, and the NHC track
forecast is near the various consensus aids to account for these
variations in forward speed.

The rapid intensification phase that Willa has gone through since
its formation on Saturday appears to have ended now that an eyewall
replacement has begun. Although the hurricane is forecast to remain
in a low to moderate wind shear environment and over warm SSTs
through tonight, some weakening is likely due to internal dynamics
of the eyewall replacement. Increasing southwesterly shear on
Tuesday is likely to cause some additional weakening, and the NHC
intensity forecast has been adjusted accordingly, however, Willa is
forecast to remain a dangerous major hurricane through landfall.
Rapid weakening will occur Tuesday night as Willa moves over the
mountainous terrain of Mexico, and the cyclone is expected to
dissipate on Wednesday. Moisture from the remnants of Willa are
forecast to spread northeastward over northern Mexico and
portions of Texas where a swath of heavy rainfall is expected
midweek.

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected Tuesday along the
coasts of the Isla Marias, and west-central and southwestern
Mexico near the path of Willa. Residents should rush preparations
to completion to protect life and property and follow any advice
given by local officials.

2. Everyone in Isla Marias, and within the hurricane warning area
along the coast of west-central Mexico should prepare for life-
threatening major hurricane winds associated with the core of
Willa. Hurricane force winds will also extend inland across the
mountainous areas of west-central Mexico as Willa moves inland.

3. Heavy rainfall from Willa is likely to produce life-threatening
flash flooding and landslides over much of southwestern and
west-central Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 19.7N 107.2W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 20.7N 107.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 22.0N 106.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 23.9N 104.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
48H 24/1800Z 26.2N 101.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-22 21:32

WTPZ34 KNHC 222037 RRA
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILLA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
300 PM MDT MON OCT 22 2018

...EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILLA CONTINUES NORTHWARD...
....EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 107.2W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN, INCLUDING LAS ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
.. NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

2018-10-22 21:32

WTPZ34 KNHC 222037
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Willa Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
300 PM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018

...EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILLA CONTINUES NORTHWARD...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 107.2W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Mazatlan, including Las Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to San Blas
* North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of west-central and
southwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Willa was located
near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 107.2 West. Willa is moving
toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion
should continue tonight. Willa is forecast to accelerate toward the
north-northeast and move over or very near the Islas Marias early
Tuesday and make landfall along the west-central coast of mainland
Mexico in the hurricane warning area Tuesday afternoon or evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Willa is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is forecast during the
next day or so, but Willa is expected to be a dangerous major
hurricane when it reaches the coast of Mexico. Rapid weakening is
expected after landfall Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 929 mb (27.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge is likely along
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, especially near
and to the south of where the center of Willa makes landfall.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches,
across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, and southern
Sinaloa in Mexico. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash
flooding and landslides.

Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amount of 2 to
4 inches across portions of Zacateca, Durango, southeast Chihuahua,
and Coahuila in Mexico, with local amounts to 6 inches possible.
This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area beginning Tuesday afternoon, with tropical storm
conditions expected by early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions
are expected within the tropical storm warning areas by tonight
and Tuesday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect
portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico
during the next few days. Swells should begin to affect portions
of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula later today.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-22 21:32

WTPZ24 KNHC 222037 RRA
TCMEP4

HURRICANE WILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
2100 UTC MON OCT 22 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN... INCLUDING LAS ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
... NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 107.2W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 929 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 240SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 107.2W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 107.2W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.7N 107.1W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.

2018-10-22 21:32

WTPZ24 KNHC 222037
TCMEP4

HURRICANE WILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
2100 UTC MON OCT 22 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN... INCLUDING LAS ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
* NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 107.2W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 929 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 240SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 107.2W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 107.2W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.7N 107.1W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 22.0N 106.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 23.9N 104.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 26.2N 101.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 107.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

2018-10-22 18:31

WTPZ34 KNHC 221736 RRA
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILLA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
1200 PM MDT MON OCT 22 2018

...EYE OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE WILLA
MOVING NORTHWARD...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 107.2W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN, INCLUDING LAS ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
. NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

2018-10-22 18:31

WTPZ34 KNHC 221736
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Willa Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
1200 PM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018

...EYE OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE WILLA
MOVING NORTHWARD...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 107.2W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Mazatlan, including Las Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to San Blas
* North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of west-central and
southwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Willa was located
near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 107.2 West. Willa is moving
toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue today. Willa is forecast to accelerate toward
the north-northeast and move over or very near the Islas Marias
early Tuesday and make landfall along the southwestern coast of
mainland Mexico in the hurricane warning area Tuesday afternoon or
evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher
gusts. Willa is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is still possible today.
Slight weakening is forecast to begin on Tuesday, but Willa is
expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it
reaches the coast of Mexico. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
Aircraft that was en route to Willa experienced a safety issue
before entering the storm and had to return to base.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 925 mb (27.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge is likely along
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico by Tuesday or Tuesday
night, especially near and to the south of where the center of Willa
makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches,
across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, and southern
Sinaloa in Mexico. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash
flooding and landslides.

Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amount of 2 to
4 inches across portions of Zacateca, Durango, southeast Chihuahua,
and Coahuila in Mexico, with local amounts to 6 inches possible.
This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area beginning Tuesday afternoon, with tropical storm
conditions expected by Tuesday morning. Tropical storm conditions
are expected within the tropical storm warning areas by tonight
and Tuesday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect
portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico
during the next few days. Swells should begin to affect portions
of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula later today.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-22 16:35

WTNT82 EGRR 221556

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 22.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.6N 117.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP912018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.10.2018 0 11.6N 117.1W 1009 18
0000UTC 23.10.2018 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM VICENTE ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 100.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP232018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.10.2018 0 14.7N 100.6W 998 46
0000UTC 23.10.2018 12 16.0N 101.9W 995 50
1200UTC 23.10.2018 24 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE WILLA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.6N 107.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP242018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.10.2018 0 18.6N 107.2W 982 52
0000UTC 23.10.2018 12 20.1N 106.9W 977 59
1200UTC 23.10.2018 24 21.8N 106.8W 979 64
0000UTC 24.10.2018 36 22.5N 106.1W 988 50
1200UTC 24.10.2018 48 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 24.9N 44.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.10.2018 120 25.8N 44.5W 1005 38
0000UTC 28.10.2018 132 26.1N 46.4W 996 45
1200UTC 28.10.2018 144 26.0N 48.2W 993 46


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 221556

2018-10-22 16:35

WTNT80 EGRR 221556

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 22.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.6N 117.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP912018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 22.10.2018 11.6N 117.1W WEAK
00UTC 23.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM VICENTE ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 100.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP232018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 22.10.2018 14.7N 100.6W MODERATE
00UTC 23.10.2018 16.0N 101.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE WILLA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.6N 107.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP242018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 22.10.2018 18.6N 107.2W MODERATE
00UTC 23.10.2018 20.1N 106.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 23.10.2018 21.8N 106.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.10.2018 22.5N 106.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 24.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 24.9N 44.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 27.10.2018 25.8N 44.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 28.10.2018 26.1N 46.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.10.2018 26.0N 48.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 221556

2018-10-22 15:31

WTPZ44 KNHC 221515 CCA
TCDEP4

Hurricane Willa Discussion Number 10...corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
900 AM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018

Corrected wording in Key Messages number 2

Willa is an extremely impressive hurricane in infrared and visible
satellite imagery this morning. The small, but very distinct, eye
is embedded within a symmetric central dense overcast with cloud
tops of -70 to -80 degrees Celsius. A very recent SSMIS microwave
overpass is the first to indicate that an outer eyewall has formed,
suggesting that an eyewall replacement cycle has started. The
latest objective T-numbers from UW-CIMSS are T7.0/140 kt, and
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 140 kt
and 127 kt, respectively. Based on these data the initial intensity
has been increased to 140 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is currently en route to Wilma and should provide a better
assessment of the storm's intensity by early this afternoon.

Willa is moving northward 6 kt. The hurricane is forecast to
continue to move northward today around the western flank of a
deep-layer ridge that is located over the Gulf of Mexico.
A short wave trough that is seen in water vapor imagery near 130W
longitude is forecast to deepen as it moves eastward toward Baja
California. This should cause Willa to turn north-northeastward
tonight, then accelerate northeastward on Tuesday, bringing the
center of the hurricane onshore along the west-central coast of
Mexico Tuesday afternoon or evening. As mentioned in the previous
advisory, the track guidance is good agreement on the overall
scenario but there are still some notable differences in the
predicted forward speed of the hurricane. The NHC track forecast
leans toward the faster solutions of the GFS and GFS ensemble
mean, which have been handling Willa's track the best so far.

The environment of low wind shear and water temperatures of 28
to 29.5 degrees Celsius suggest some additional strengthening is
possible but with the evidence that an eyewall replacement has
begun, some fluctuations intensity are possible during the next 12
to 24 hours. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear is
forecast to induce weakening, but Willa is likely to remain an
extremely dangerous major hurricane when it makes landfall along the
west-central coast of Mexico. After landfall, shear and the
mountainous terrain of Mexico will cause rapid weakening and
dissipation of the cyclone.

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected Tuesday along the
coasts of the Isla Marias, and west-central and southwestern
Mexico near the path of Willa. Residents should rush preparations
to completion to protect life and property and follow any advice
given by local officials.

2. Everyone in Isla Marias, and within the hurricane warning area
along coast of west-central Mexico should prepare for life-
threatening major hurricane winds associated with the core of
Willa. Hurricane force winds will also extend inland across the
mountainous areas of west-central Mexico as Willa moves inland.

3. Heavy rainfall from Willa is likely to produce life-threatening
flash flooding and landslides over much of southwestern and
west-central Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 19.1N 107.2W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 20.1N 107.2W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 21.4N 106.9W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 23.1N 105.6W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
48H 24/1200Z 25.4N 102.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-22 15:31

WTPZ44 KNHC 221515 RRA
TCDEP4

HURRICANE WILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
900 AM MDT MON OCT 22 2018

CORRECTED WORDING IN KEY MESSAGES NUMBER 2

WILLA IS AN EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE IN INFRARED AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. THE SMALL, BUT VERY DISTINCT, EYE
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH CLOUD
TOPS OF -70 TO -80 DEGREES CELSIUS. A VERY RECENT SSMIS MICROWAVE
OVERPASS IS THE FIRST TO INDICATE THAT AN OUTER EYEWALL HAS FORMED,
SUGGESTING THAT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE HAS STARTED. THE
LATEST OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM UW-CIMSS ARE T7.0/140 KT, AND
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 140 KT
AND 127 KT, RESPECTIVELY. BASED ON THESE DATA THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 140 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO WILMA AND SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER
ASSESSMENT OF THE STORM'S INTENSITY BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

WILLA IS MOVING NORTHWARD 6 KT. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD TODAY AROUND THE WESTERN FLANK OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE THAT IS LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 130W
LONGITUDE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD BAJA
CALIFORNIA. THIS SHOULD CAUSE WILLA TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT, THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON TUESDAY, BRINGING THE
CENTER OF THE HURRICANE ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF
MEXICO TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY, THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL

2018-10-22 15:31

WTPZ44 KNHC 221447 RRA
TCDEP4

HURRICANE WILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
900 AM MDT MON OCT 22 2018

WILLA IS AN EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE IN INFRARED AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. THE SMALL, BUT VERY DISTINCT, EYE
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH CLOUD
TOPS OF -70 TO -80 DEGREES CELSIUS. A VERY RECENT SSMIS MICROWAVE
OVERPASS IS THE FIRST TO INDICATE THAT AN OUTER EYEWALL HAS FORMED,
SUGGESTING THAT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE HAS STARTED. THE
LATEST OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM UW-CIMSS ARE T7.0/140 KT, AND
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 140 KT
AND 127 KT, RESPECTIVELY. BASED ON THESE DATA THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 140 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO WILMA AND SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER
ASSESSMENT OF THE STORM'S INTENSITY BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

WILLA IS MOVING NORTHWARD 6 KT. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD TODAY AROUND THE WESTERN FLANK OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE THAT IS LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 130W
LONGITUDE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD BAJA
CALIFORNIA. THIS SHOULD CAUSE WILLA TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT, THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON TUESDAY, BRINGING THE
CENTER OF THE HURRICANE ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF
MEXICO TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY, THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
SCENARIO BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE

2018-10-22 15:31

WTPZ44 KNHC 221447
TCDEP4

Hurricane Willa Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
900 AM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018

Willa is an extremely impressive hurricane in infrared and visible
satellite imagery this morning. The small, but very distinct, eye
is embedded within a symmetric central dense overcast with cloud
tops of -70 to -80 degrees Celsius. A very recent SSMIS microwave
overpass is the first to indicate that an outer eyewall has formed,
suggesting that an eyewall replacement cycle has started. The
latest objective T-numbers from UW-CIMSS are T7.0/140 kt, and
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 140 kt
and 127 kt, respectively. Based on these data the initial intensity
has been increased to 140 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is currently en route to Wilma and should provide a better
assessment of the storm's intensity by early this afternoon.

Willa is moving northward 6 kt. The hurricane is forecast to
continue to move northward today around the western flank of a
deep-layer ridge that is located over the Gulf of Mexico.
A short wave trough that is seen in water vapor imagery near 130W
longitude is forecast to deepen as it moves eastward toward Baja
California. This should cause Willa to turn north-northeastward
tonight, then accelerate northeastward on Tuesday, bringing the
center of the hurricane onshore along the west-central coast of
Mexico Tuesday afternoon or evening. As mentioned in the previous
advisory, the track guidance is good agreement on the overall
scenario but there are still some notable differences in the
predicted forward speed of the hurricane. The NHC track forecast
leans toward the faster solutions of the GFS and GFS ensemble
mean, which have been handling Willa's track the best so far.

The environment of low wind shear and water temperatures of 28
to 29.5 degrees Celsius suggest some additional strengthening is
possible but with the evidence that an eyewall replacement has
begun, some fluctuations intensity are possible during the next 12
to 24 hours. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear is
forecast to induce weakening, but Willa is likely to remain an
extremely dangerous major hurricane when it makes landfall along the
west-central coast of Mexico. After landfall, shear and the
mountainous terrain of Mexico will cause rapid weakening and
dissipation of the cyclone.

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected Tuesday along the
coasts of the Isla Marias, and west-central and southwestern
Mexico near the path of Willa. Residents should rush preparations
to completion to protect life and property and follow any advice
given by local officials.

2. Everyone in Isla Marias, and within the hurricane warning area
along coast of west-central Mexico should prepare for life-
threatening major hurricane winds associated with the core of
Michael. Hurricane force winds will also extend inland across the
mountainous areas of west-central Mexico as Willa moves inland.

3. Heavy rainfall from Willa is likely to produce life-threatening
flash flooding and landslides over much of southwestern and
west-central Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 19.1N 107.2W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 20.1N 107.2W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 21.4N 106.9W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 23.1N 105.6W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
48H 24/1200Z 25.4N 102.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-22 15:31

WTPZ34 KNHC 221446 RRA
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILLA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
900 AM MDT MON OCT 22 2018

...WILLA BECOMES A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
....EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 107.2W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN, INCLUDING LAS ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
.. NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

2018-10-22 15:31

WTPZ34 KNHC 221446
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Willa Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
900 AM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018

...WILLA BECOMES A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 107.2W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Mazatlan, including Las Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to San Blas
* North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of west-central and
southwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Willa was located
near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 107.2 West. Willa is moving
toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue today. Willa is forecast to accelerate toward
the north-northeast and move over or very near the Islas Marias
early Tuesday and make landfall along the southwestern coast of
mainland Mexico in the hurricane warning area Tuesday afternoon or
evening.

Satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Willa is a
category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Some strengthening is still possible today. Slight weakening is
forecast to begin on Tuesday, but Willa is expected to be an
extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the coast of
Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 925 mb (27.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge is likely along
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico by Tuesday or Tuesday
night, especially near and to the south of where the center of Willa
makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches,
across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, and southern
Sinaloa in Mexico. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash
flooding and landslides.

Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amount of 2 to
4 inches across portions of Zacateca, Durango, southeast Chihuahua,
and Coahuila in Mexico, with local amounts to 6 inches possible.
This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area beginning Tuesday afternoon, with tropical storm
conditions expected by Tuesday morning. Tropical storm conditions
are expected within the tropical storm warning areas by tonight
and Tuesday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect
portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-22 15:31

WTPZ24 KNHC 221446 RRA
TCMEP4

HURRICANE WILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
1500 UTC MON OCT 22 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN... INCLUDING LAS ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
... NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 107.2W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 925 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 270SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 107.2W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 107.2W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 20.1N 107.2W

2018-10-22 15:31

WTPZ24 KNHC 221446
TCMEP4

HURRICANE WILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
1500 UTC MON OCT 22 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN... INCLUDING LAS ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
* NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 107.2W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 925 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 270SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 107.2W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 107.2W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 20.1N 107.2W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.4N 106.9W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 23.1N 105.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.4N 102.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 107.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

2018-10-22 12:31

WTPZ34 KNHC 221149 RRA
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILLA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
600 AM MDT MON OCT 22 2018

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILLA MOVING NORTHWARD...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 107.3W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM SSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 155 MI...255 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.49 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN, INCLUDING LAS ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
. NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

2018-10-22 12:31

WTPZ34 KNHC 221149
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Willa Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
600 AM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILLA MOVING NORTHWARD...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 107.3W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM SSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 155 MI...255 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.49 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Mazatlan, including Las Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to San Blas
* North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of west-central and
southwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Willa was located
near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 107.3 West. Willa is moving
toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue today. Willa is forecast to accelerate toward
the north-northeast and move over or very near the Islas Marias
early Tuesday and make landfall along the southwestern coast of
mainland Mexico in the hurricane warning area late Tuesday or
Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Willa is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slight strengthening is
possible today, and Willa could become a category 5 hurricane later
this morning. While some weakening is forecast by tonight and
Tuesday, Willa is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it
reaches the coast of Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90
miles (150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 931 mb (27.49 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely along portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico by Tuesday or Tuesday night,
especially near and to the south of where the center of Willa makes
landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches,
across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, and southern
Sinaloa in Mexico. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash
flooding and landslides.

Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amount of 2 to
4 inches across portions of Zacateca, Durango, southeast Chihuahua,
and Coahuila in Mexico, with local amounts to 6 inches possible.
This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area beginning Tuesday afternoon, with tropical storm
conditions expected by Tuesday morning. Tropical storm conditions
are expected within the tropical storm warning areas tonight and
Tuesday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect
portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-22 09:32

WTPZ44 KNHC 220838 RRA
TCDEP4

HURRICANE WILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
300 AM MDT MON OCT 22 2018

WILLA IS AN IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE WITH RAPID TO EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING
HAVING OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS, AND YIELDING A 105-KT
INTENSITY INCREASE DURING THAT TIME. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGE FROM SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF T6.5/127 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB TO OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS OF T7.0/140 KT FROM UW-CIMSS ADT AND NHC.
THE MOST RECENT UW-CIMSS SATCON VALUE AROUND 0437Z WAS 127 KT. BASED
ON THESE DATA AND THE SLIGHTLY MORE RAGGED APPEARANCE OF THE CDO
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS, THE INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 135 KT,
WHICH IS JUST BELOW CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH.

WILLA IS NOW MOVING NORTHWARD AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
360/06 KT. WILLA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD TODAY AS
THE HURRICANE ROUNDS THE WESTERN PORTION OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND WHICH EXTENDS WESTWARD ALONG 20N
LATITUDE TO NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. ON TUESDAY, A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS THE HURRICANE GETS CAUGHT UP IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
THE LATEST 00Z NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THIS
GENERAL TRACK SCENARIO, BUT WITH NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE
FORWARD SPEED. INTERNAL STATISTICAL ANALYSES SHOW THAT THE ECMWF
AND UKMET MODELS HAVE HAD A SLOW WESTWARD BIAS OVER THE PAST 48
HOURS, WHICH HAS SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECTED THE CONSENSUS MODELS. AS A
RESULT, THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF AND
SLIGHTLY FASTER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND THE CONSENSUS

2018-10-22 09:32

WTPZ44 KNHC 220838
TCDEP4

Hurricane Willa Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
300 AM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018

Willa is an impressive hurricane with rapid to explosive deepening
having occurred over the past 48 hours, and yielding a 105-kt
intensity increase during that time. Satellite intensity estimates
range from subjective Dvorak T-numbers of T6.5/127 kt from TAFB and
SAB to objective T-numbers of T7.0/140 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT and NHC.
The most recent UW-CIMSS SATCON value around 0437Z was 127 kt. Based
on these data and the slightly more ragged appearance of the CDO
over the past couple of hours, the intensity is raised to 135 kt,
which is just below category 5 strength.

Willa is now moving northward and the initial motion estimate is
360/06 kt. Willa is forecast to continue moving northward today as
the hurricane rounds the western portion of a deep-layer ridge
located over central Mexico and which extends westward along 20N
latitude to near the Pacific coast of Mexico. On Tuesday, a turn
toward the north-northeast and northeast at a slightly faster
forward speed is expected as the hurricane gets caught up in
southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching mid-/upper-level trough.
The latest 00Z NHC model guidance is in decent agreement on this
general track scenario, but with noticeable differences in the
forward speed. Internal statistical analyses show that the ECMWF
and UKMET models have had a slow westward bias over the past 48
hours, which has significantly affected the consensus models. As a
result, the new NHC forecast is a little to the right of and
slightly faster the previous advisory track and the consensus
models, and lies close to GFS model which has verified the best
thus far. On the forecast track, Willa is expected to move over Las
Islas Marias on Tuesday and then move inland over southwestern and
west-central Mexico Tuesday night or early Wednesday. A 72-hour
position has been provided only for continuity purposes beyond the
48-hour period, and Willa will likely have dissipated by then.

Water temperatures ahead of the powerful hurricane are forecast to
increase from 28 deg C to near 29.5 deg C, and the depth of the warm
water is also expected to increase, which would tend to offset any
cold upwelling beneath Willa. The deep-layer shear is forecast to
increase to a little more than 10 kt during the next 36 hours, and
remain at that level during the duration of that time period. These
conditions would favor at least slight strengthening before the
internal dynamics of the hurricane in the form of an eyewall
replacement cycle (ERC) induces some weakening. With the eye
diameter already at 10-15 nmi, an ERC could begin at any time
during the next 12 hours. Shortly after 36 hours, the shear is
expected to increase sharply to more than 20 kt, which will cause
more significant weakening. However, Willa is still expected to be
near major hurricane strength when it makes landfall along the
west-central coast of Mexico. After landfall, the mountainous
terrain along with strong southwesterly wind shear of more than 30
kt will cause rapid weakening and dissipation of the cyclone inland
over north-central Mexico.

Key Messages:

1. Willa is forecast to be a dangerous hurricane when it reaches the
Islas Marias and the coast of southwestern Mexico by late Tuesday or
Wednesday morning, bringing a life-threatening storm surge and flash
flooding along with damaging hurricane-force winds. A Hurricane
Warning is in effect for these areas, and residents should rush
preparations to completion to protect life and property and follow
any advice given by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 18.2N 107.1W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 19.2N 107.2W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 20.4N 107.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 21.8N 106.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 23.8N 104.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND WNCTRL MEXICO
72H 25/0600Z 27.0N 99.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-22 09:32

WTPZ34 KNHC 220838 RRA
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILLA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
300 AM MDT MON OCT 22 2018

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILLA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...
....EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 107.1W
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM S OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.49 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN, INCLUDING LAS ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
.. NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA.

2018-10-22 09:32

WTPZ34 KNHC 220838
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Willa Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
300 AM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILLA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 107.1W
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM S OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.49 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Mazatlan, including Las Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to San Blas
* North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of west-central and
southwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Willa
was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 107.1 West. Willa is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today. Willa is forecast to
accelerate toward the north-northeast and move over or very near the
Islas Marias on Tuesday and make landfall along the southwestern
coast of mainland Mexico in the hurricane warning area Tuesday night
or Wednesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Willa is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slight strengthening is
possible today, and Willa could become a category 5 hurricane later
this morning. While some weakening is forecast by tonight and
Tuesday, Willa is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it
reaches the coast of Mexico late Tuesday or early Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 931 mb (27.49 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely along portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico by Tuesday or Tuesday night,
especially near and to the south of where the center of Willa makes
landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches,
across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, and southern
Sinaloa in Mexico. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash
flooding and landslides.

Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amount of 2 to
4 inches across portions of Zacateca, Durango, southeast Chihuahua,
and Coahuila in Mexico, with local amounts to 6 inches possible.
This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area by late Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions
expected by Tuesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected
within the tropical storm warning areas tonight and Tuesday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect
portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-22 09:32

WTPZ24 KNHC 220837 RRA
TCMEP4

HURRICANE WILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
0900 UTC MON OCT 22 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN... INCLUDING LAS ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
... NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 107.1W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 931 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 107.1W AT 22/0900Z

2018-10-22 09:32

WTPZ24 KNHC 220837
TCMEP4

HURRICANE WILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
0900 UTC MON OCT 22 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN... INCLUDING LAS ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
* NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 107.1W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 931 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 107.1W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 107.1W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 19.2N 107.2W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.4N 107.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 21.8N 106.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 23.8N 104.6W...INLAND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 27.0N 99.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND NRN MEXICO
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 107.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

2018-10-22 06:32

WTPZ34 KNHC 220538 RRA
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILLA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
1200 AM MDT MON OCT 22 2018

...WILLA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO NEAR-CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 107.1W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.49 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN, INCLUDING LAS ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
. NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR

2018-10-22 06:32

WTPZ34 KNHC 220538
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Willa Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
1200 AM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018

...WILLA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO NEAR-CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 107.1W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.49 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Mazatlan, including Las Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to San Blas
* North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of west-central and
southwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Willa was located
near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 107.1 West. Willa is moving
toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue today. Willa is forecast to accelerate toward
the north-northeast and move over or very near the Islas Marias on
Tuesday and make landfall along the southwestern coast of mainland
Mexico in the hurricane warning area Tuesday night or Wednesday
morning.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 155 mph (250 km/h)
with higher gusts. Willa is an extremely dangerous category 4
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional
strengthening is expected today, and Willa could become a category
5 hurricane later this morning. While some weakening is forecast by
tonight and Tuesday, Willa is expected to be a dangerous hurricane
when it reaches the coast of Mexico late Tuesday or early Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90
miles (150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 931 mb (27.49 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely along portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico by Tuesday or Tuesday night,
especially near and to the south of where the center of Willa makes
landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches,
across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, and southern
Sinaloa in Mexico. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash
flooding and landslides.

Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amount of 2 to
4 inches across portions of Zacateca, Durango, southeast Chihuahua,
and Coahuila in Mexico, with local amounts to 6 inches possible.
This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area by late Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions
expected by Tuesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected
within the tropical storm warning areas tonight and Tuesday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect
portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-22 04:31

WTNT82 EGRR 220400

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 22.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.6N 117.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP912018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.10.2018 0 11.6N 117.9W 1008 21
1200UTC 22.10.2018 12 11.8N 117.7W 1009 20
0000UTC 23.10.2018 24 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM VICENTE ANALYSED POSITION : 14.0N 98.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP232018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.10.2018 0 14.0N 98.6W 1001 37
1200UTC 22.10.2018 12 15.1N 100.4W 1002 35
0000UTC 23.10.2018 24 17.0N 102.1W 1003 38
1200UTC 23.10.2018 36 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE WILLA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.2N 107.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP242018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.10.2018 0 17.2N 107.1W 980 59
1200UTC 22.10.2018 12 19.0N 107.1W 979 57
0000UTC 23.10.2018 24 20.9N 106.7W 975 60
1200UTC 23.10.2018 36 22.2N 106.5W 981 61
0000UTC 24.10.2018 48 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 29.9N 87.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 26.10.2018 96 29.9N 87.6W 1005 29
1200UTC 26.10.2018 108 29.4N 84.0W 1003 35
0000UTC 27.10.2018 120 32.0N 80.4W 998 37
1200UTC 27.10.2018 132 34.9N 77.5W 991 44
0000UTC 28.10.2018 144 38.5N 76.5W 983 43


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 220400

2018-10-22 04:31

WTNT80 EGRR 220400

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 22.10.2018

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.6N 117.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP912018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 22.10.2018 11.6N 117.9W WEAK
12UTC 22.10.2018 11.8N 117.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM VICENTE ANALYSED POSITION : 14.0N 98.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP232018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 22.10.2018 14.0N 98.6W WEAK
12UTC 22.10.2018 15.1N 100.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.10.2018 17.0N 102.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE WILLA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.2N 107.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP242018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 22.10.2018 17.2N 107.1W STRONG
12UTC 22.10.2018 19.0N 107.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.10.2018 20.9N 106.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 23.10.2018 22.2N 106.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 24.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 29.9N 87.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 26.10.2018 29.9N 87.6W WEAK
12UTC 26.10.2018 29.4N 84.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.10.2018 32.0N 80.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 27.10.2018 34.9N 77.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 28.10.2018 38.5N 76.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 220400

2018-10-22 03:31

WTPZ44 KNHC 220232 RRA
TCDEP4

HURRICANE WILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
900 PM MDT SUN OCT 21 2018

WILLA HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THIS EVENING. SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULAR EYE WITH A SURROUNDING RING OF
COLD CLOUD TOPS THAT ARE NEAR -80 DEG C OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 125 KT, WHICH IS NEAR THE
LATEST DVORAK ADT ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF
WISCONSIN. WILLA HAS STRENGTHENED AT AN INCREDIBLE RATE SINCE
GENESIS, INTENSIFYING FROM A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO A CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE IN LESS THAN 48 HOURS.

WILLA IS GRADUALLY TURNING TOWARD THE RIGHT, WITH THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATED TO BE 340/6 KT. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTHWARD ON MONDAY AS IT MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST, FOLLOWED BY A FASTER NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
THE SYSTEM. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT, AND ONLY SMALL
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK FORECAST. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, WILLA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER LAS ISLAS MARIAS ON
TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL
MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE HURRICANE HAS CERTAINTY TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF THE NEAR IDEAL
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND SINCE THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST A
LITTLE LONGER, SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN IN THE SHORT
TERM. HOWEVER, SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY COULD OCCUR DUE TO
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. THE MODELS THEN SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN SHEAR AND A DECREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AROUND 24 HOURS, AND

2018-10-22 03:31

WTPZ44 KNHC 220232
TCDEP4

Hurricane Willa Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
900 PM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018

Willa has continued to rapidly intensify this evening. Satellite
images show a well-defined circular eye with a surrounding ring of
cold cloud tops that are near -80 deg C over the southeastern
quadrant. The initial intensity is set to 125 kt, which is near the
latest Dvorak ADT estimates from CIMSS at the University of
Wisconsin. Willa has strengthened at an incredible rate since
genesis, intensifying from a tropical depression to a category 4
hurricane in less than 48 hours.

Willa is gradually turning toward the right, with the initial motion
estimated to be 340/6 kt. The hurricane is expected to turn
northward on Monday as it moves around the western periphery of a
mid-level ridge to the east, followed by a faster northeastward
motion Monday night and Tuesday when a shortwave trough approaches
the system. The models are in fairly good agreement, and only small
changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast. On the
forecast track, Willa is expected to move over Las Islas Marias on
Tuesday and then move inland over southwestern and west-central
Mexico Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

The hurricane has certainty taken advantage of the near ideal
environmental conditions and since these conditions will persist a
little longer, some additional strengthening is shown in the short
term. However, some fluctuations in intensity could occur due to
eyewall replacement cycles. The models then show a gradual increase
in shear and a decrease in available moisture around 24 hours, and
these factors should cause a slow weakening trend. Regardless,
Willa is forecast to remain a dangerous hurricane, bringing multiple
life-threatening hazards to the coast of Mexico. Rapid weakening is
forecast after the system moves inland and interacts with the
mountainous terrain. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the high
end of the model guidance through dissipation.

Key Messages:

1. Willa is forecast to be a dangerous hurricane when it reaches the
Islas Marias and the coast of southwestern Mexico by late Tuesday or
Wednesday bringing a life-threatening storm surge and flash flooding
along with damaging hurricane-force winds. A Hurricane Warning is
in effect for these areas, and residents should rush preparations to
completion to protect life and property and follow any advice given
by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 17.7N 107.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 18.6N 107.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 19.7N 107.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 20.7N 107.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 22.1N 106.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 26.2N 101.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-10-22 03:31

WTPZ34 KNHC 220232 RRA
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILLA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
900 PM MDT SUN OCT 21 2018

...WILLA FORECAST TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND,
AND RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...
....HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 107.2W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM SAN
BLAS TO MAZATLAN WITH A HURRICANE WARNING, AND HAS REPLACED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA
WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN, INCLUDING LAS ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
.. NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

2018-10-22 03:31

WTPZ34 KNHC 220232
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Willa Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
900 PM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018

...WILLA FORECAST TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND,
AND RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...
...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 107.2W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has replaced the Hurricane Watch from San
Blas to Mazatlan with a Hurricane Warning, and has replaced the
Tropical Storm Watch from north of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya
with a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Mazatlan, including Las Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to San Blas
* North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of west-central and
southwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Willa was located
near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 107.2 West. Willa is moving
toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the
north is expected overnight and Monday. Willa is expected to
accelerate toward the north-northeast and move over or very near the
Islas Marias on Tuesday and make landfall along the southwestern
coast of mainland Mexico in the hurricane warning area Tuesday
night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (230 km/h)
with higher gusts. Willa is an extremely dangerous category 4
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional
strengthening is expected overnight and early Monday. While some
weakening is forecast Monday night and Tuesday, Willa is expected to
be a dangerous hurricane when it reaches the coast of Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 941 mb (27.79 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely along portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico by Tuesday or Tuesday night,
especially near and to the south of where the center of Willa makes
landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches,
across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, and southern
Sinaloa in Mexico. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash
flooding and landslides.

Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amount of 2
to 4 inches across portions of Zacateca, Durango, southeast
Chihuahua, and Coahuila in Mexico, with local amounts to 6 inches
possible. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area by late Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions
expected by Tuesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected
within the tropical storm warning areas Monday night and Tuesday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect
portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-10-22 03:31

WTPZ24 KNHC 220231 RRA
TCMEP4

HURRICANE WILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
0300 UTC MON OCT 22 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM SAN
BLAS TO MAZATLAN WITH A HURRICANE WARNING... AND HAS REPLACED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA
WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN... INCLUDING LAS ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
... NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 107.2W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 941 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

2018-10-22 03:31

WTPZ24 KNHC 220231
TCMEP4

HURRICANE WILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
0300 UTC MON OCT 22 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM SAN
BLAS TO MAZATLAN WITH A HURRICANE WARNING... AND HAS REPLACED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA
WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN... INCLUDING LAS ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
* NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 107.2W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 941 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 107.2W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 107.1W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 18.6N 107.4W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.7N 107.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 20.7N 107.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 22.1N 106.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 26.2N 101.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 107.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-10-22 00:31

WTPZ34 KNHC 212331 RRA
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILLA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
600 PM MDT SUN OCT 21 2018

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE WILLA CONTINUES TO
RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN...
....FORECAST TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 107.1W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.93 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND

2018-10-22 00:31

WTPZ34 KNHC 212331
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Willa Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
600 PM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE WILLA CONTINUES TO
RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN...
...FORECAST TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 107.1W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.93 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* San Blas to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to San Blas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of west-central and
southwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Willa was located
near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 107.1 West. Willa is moving
toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the
north is expected later tonight and Monday. Willa is expected to
accelerate toward the north-northeast and move over or very near the
Islas Marias on Tuesday and approach the southwestern coast of
mainland Mexico in the hurricane watch area by Tuesday night.

Satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Willa is an
extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is expected during
the next day or so, and Willa is forecast to be a dangerous
hurricane when it reaches the coast of Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80
miles (130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 946 mb (27.93 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves is possible along portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico by Tuesday or Tuesday night.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by late Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by
Tuesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the
tropical storm warning area by Monday night or early Tuesday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm
watch area by Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches,
across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, and southern
Sinaloa in Mexico. This rainfall would cause life-threatening flash
flooding and landslides.

Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amount of 2
to 4 inches across portions of Zacateca, Durango, southeast
Chihuahua, and Coahuila in Mexico, with local amounts to 6 inches
possible. This rainfall could also cause life-threatening flash
flooding.

SURF: Large swells generated by Willa are beginning to affect
portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-10-21 23:32

WTPZ64 KNHC 212230
TCUEP4

HURRICANE WILLA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
430 PM MDT SUN OCT 21 2018

...WILLA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT WILLA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY,
AND MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 130 MPH
(215 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.


SUMMARY OF 430 PM MDT...2230 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 107.0W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES

...
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-10-21 21:32

WTPZ44 KNHC 212034 RRA
TCDEP4

HURRICANE WILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
300 PM MDT SUN OCT 21 2018

WILLA HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN WITH THE EYE BECOMING
VERY DISTINCT IN BOTH VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE SURROUNDING CONVECTIVE TOPS WARMED AROUND MID-DAY BUT HAVE
COOLED SINCE THAT TIME AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
WERE 102 AND 90 KT, FROM SAB AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY AT 18Z. WITH
THE CONTINUED INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THAT TIME, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET NEAR THE UPPER END OF THE ESTIMATES OR 100 KT.

WILLA CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR 330/5 KT.
THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OVER THE
PAST FEW ADVISORIES. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD
TONIGHT OR MONDAY AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER MAINLAND MEXICO.
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD CAUSE WILLA TO TURN NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AND RECURVE AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW
QUICKLY WILLA WILL RECURVE, BUT THERE IS LITTLE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD
IN THE GUIDANCE. THIS INCREASES THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST, WHICH CALLS FOR THE HURRICANE TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE LOW SHEAR AND WARM OCEAN ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF WILLA IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 12
TO 24 HOURS, AND ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT AND

2018-10-21 21:32

WTPZ44 KNHC 212034
TCDEP4

Hurricane Willa Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
300 PM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018

Willa has continued to rapidly strengthen with the eye becoming
very distinct in both visible and infrared satellite imagery.
The surrounding convective tops warmed around mid-day but have
cooled since that time and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates
were 102 and 90 kt, from SAB and TAFB respectively at 18Z. With
the continued increase in organization since that time, the initial
intensity is set near the upper end of the estimates or 100 kt.

Willa continues moving slowly north-northwestward or 330/5 kt.
There has been no change to the track forecast philosophy over the
past few advisories. The hurricane is expected to turn northward
tonight or Monday around the western portion of a deep-layer ridge
that extends westward from the Gulf of Mexico over mainland Mexico.
A mid-level trough that is forecast to approach the Baja California
peninsula Monday night and Tuesday should cause Willa to turn north-
northeastward and recurve around the northwestern portion of the
aforementioned ridge. There are still some differences in how
quickly Willa will recurve, but there is little cross-track spread
in the guidance. This increases the overall confidence in the NHC
track forecast, which calls for the hurricane to make landfall along
the southwestern coast of Mexico late Tuesday or early Wednesday.

The low shear and warm ocean environment ahead of Willa is expected
to remain quite favorable for strengthening for at least another 12
to 24 hours, and additional intensification is likely tonight and
early Monday. The new NHC track intensity forecast is above all
the intensity guidance through 36 hours, and now calls for a peak
intensity of 130 kt within that time period. After that time,
eyewall replacement cycles could result in some fluctuations in
intensity. Increasing southwesterly shear on Tuesday could result
in some weakening, but Willa is expected to approach the coast of
Mexico as a very dangerous hurricane. After landfall, rapid
weakening and dissipation over the mountainous terrain of mainland
Mexico should occur. A 96-hour forecast point is shown for
continuity but the system is likely to dissipate before that time.


Key Messages:

1. Willa is forecast to be a dangerous hurricane when it reaches the
coast of southwestern mainland Mexico by late Tuesday or Wednesday
bringing a life-threatening storm surge, damaging hurricane-force
winds, and life-threatening flash flooding. A Hurricane Watch and
tropical storm warnings and watches are in effect for a portion of
the area. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of
this system and follow any advice given by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 17.0N 107.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 17.8N 107.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 18.8N 107.6W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 19.8N 107.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 21.0N 107.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 24.8N 103.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 25/1800Z 26.8N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-21 21:32

WTPZ34 KNHC 212033 RRA
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILLA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
300 PM MDT SUN OCT 21 2018

...WILLA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...
....NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 107.0W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA
TEMPEHUAYA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

2018-10-21 21:32

WTPZ34 KNHC 212033
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Willa Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
300 PM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018

...WILLA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 107.0W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has replaced the Tropical Storm Watch
along the Pacific coast of Mexico from Playa Perula to San Blas
with a Tropical Storm Warning. The government of Mexico has also
issued a Tropical Storm Watch from north of Mazatlan to Bahia
Tempehuaya.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* San Blas to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to San Blas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of west-central and
southwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Willa was located
near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 107.0 West. Willa is moving
toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the
north is expected by tonight and Monday. Willa is expected to
accelerate toward the north-northeast and approach the southwestern
coast of mainland Mexico by late Tuesday.

Satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Willa is
a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and
Willa is forecast to become a category 4 hurricane tonight or
Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves is possible along portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico by Tuesday or Tuesday night.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by late Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by
Tuesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the
tropical storm warning area by Monday night or early Tuesday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm
watch area by Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches,
across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, and southern
Sinaloa in Mexico. This rainfall would cause life-threatening flash
flooding and landslides.

Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce 2 to 4 inch amounts
across portions of Zacateca, Durango, southeast Chihuahua, and
Coahuila in Mexico, with local amounts to 6 inches possible. This
rainfall could also cause life-threatening flash flooding.

SURF: Large swells generated by Willa are beginning to affect
portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-21 21:32

WTPZ24 KNHC 212033 RRA
TCMEP4

HURRICANE WILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
2100 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA
TEMPEHUAYA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 107.0W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.

2018-10-21 21:32

WTPZ24 KNHC 212033
TCMEP4

HURRICANE WILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
2100 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA
TEMPEHUAYA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 107.0W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 107.0W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 106.9W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.8N 107.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.8N 107.6W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 19.8N 107.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 21.0N 107.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 24.8N 103.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 26.8N 100.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 107.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

2018-10-21 18:31

WTPZ34 KNHC 211735 RRA
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILLA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
1200 PM MDT SUN OCT 21 2018

...WILLA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
....HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 106.9W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO LATER TODAY, AND INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE
COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

2018-10-21 18:31

WTPZ34 KNHC 211735
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Willa Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
1200 PM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018

...WILLA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 106.9W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* San Blas to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to San Blas

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Additional watches may be required for a portion of the coast of
mainland Mexico later today, and interests elsewhere along the
coasts of west-central and southwestern mainland Mexico should
monitor the progress of Willa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Willa was located
near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 106.9 West. Willa is moving
toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north-northwest
and north is expected by tonight and Monday. Willa is expected to
accelerate toward the north-northeast and approach the southwestern
coast of mainland Mexico by late Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during
the next day or so, and Willa is expected to become a major
hurricane by Monday morning.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60
miles (95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.67 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge and large and destructive
waves are possible along portions of the coast of southwestern
Mexico by Tuesday or Tuesday night.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by late Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by
Tuesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
tropical storm watch area by early Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches,
across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, and southern
Sinaloa in Mexico. This rainfall would cause life-threatening flash
flooding and landslides.

Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce 2 to 4 inch amounts
across portions of Zacateca, Durango, southeast Chihuahua, and
Coahuila in Mexico, with local amounts to 6 inches possible. This
rainfall could also cause life-threatening flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Willa should begin to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico by Monday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-21 16:32

WTNT82 EGRR 211556

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 21.10.2018

TROPICAL STORM VICENTE ANALYSED POSITION : 14.4N 97.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP232018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.10.2018 0 14.4N 97.1W 994 46
0000UTC 22.10.2018 12 14.2N 99.0W 1000 39
1200UTC 22.10.2018 24 15.8N 101.3W 1001 40
0000UTC 23.10.2018 36 18.8N 107.0W 992 64
1200UTC 23.10.2018 48 19.4N 107.6W 959 73
0000UTC 24.10.2018 60 20.2N 107.2W 958 79
1200UTC 24.10.2018 72 22.8N 105.3W 988 39
0000UTC 25.10.2018 84 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE WILLA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 106.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP242018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.10.2018 0 16.4N 106.7W 980 55
0000UTC 22.10.2018 12 17.1N 107.3W 967 63
1200UTC 22.10.2018 24 18.2N 107.6W 970 59
0000UTC 23.10.2018 36 18.8N 107.8W 970 64
1200UTC 23.10.2018 48 19.4N 107.6W 959 73
0000UTC 24.10.2018 60 20.2N 107.2W 958 79
1200UTC 24.10.2018 72 22.8N 105.3W 988 39
0000UTC 25.10.2018 84 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 29.5N 86.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.10.2018 120 29.5N 86.7W 1002 32
0000UTC 27.10.2018 132 31.0N 81.0W 998 32
1200UTC 27.10.2018 144 37.9N 76.0W 989 42


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 211556

2018-10-21 16:32

WTNT80 EGRR 211556

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 21.10.2018

TROPICAL STORM VICENTE ANALYSED POSITION : 14.4N 97.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP232018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 21.10.2018 14.4N 97.1W MODERATE
00UTC 22.10.2018 14.2N 99.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 22.10.2018 15.8N 101.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.10.2018 18.8N 107.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 23.10.2018 19.4N 107.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 24.10.2018 20.2N 107.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.10.2018 22.8N 105.3W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 25.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE WILLA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 106.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP242018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 21.10.2018 16.4N 106.7W MODERATE
00UTC 22.10.2018 17.1N 107.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 22.10.2018 18.2N 107.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.10.2018 18.8N 107.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.10.2018 19.4N 107.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 24.10.2018 20.2N 107.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.10.2018 22.8N 105.3W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 25.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 29.5N 86.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 26.10.2018 29.5N 86.7W WEAK
00UTC 27.10.2018 31.0N 81.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 27.10.2018 37.9N 76.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 211556

2018-10-21 15:32

WTPZ44 KNHC 211443 RRA
TCDEP4

HURRICANE WILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
900 AM MDT SUN OCT 21 2018

FIRST-LIGHT GOES-16 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT WILLA
CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED, WITH A TIGHTLY COILED BAND
OF CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN
EVIDENCE OF A SMALL EYE IN RECENT MICROWAVE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
PICTURES. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGE FROM 77 KT TO 90 KT, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 85 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

WILLA IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR 325/6 KT. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT WILLA WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TODAY,
THEN TURN NORTHWARD ON MONDAY, AND THEN HEAD NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ON TUESDAY BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO,
BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY WILLA WILL ACCELERATE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THE UKMET AND ECMWF ARE MUCH SLOWER THAN THE
REMAINDER OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS, WITH THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN THE FASTEST. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER OF THE
WILLA ONSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITHIN 72 H, AND
IT LIES CLOSEST TO THE HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS, WHICH IS A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE OTHER CONSENSUS AIDS.

THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND OVER WARM WATERS OF AROUND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. THESE VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ALLOW
STEADY TO RAPID STRENGTHENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, AND THE NHC

2018-10-21 15:32

WTPZ44 KNHC 211443
TCDEP4

Hurricane Willa Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
900 AM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018

First-light GOES-16 visible satellite imagery shows that Willa
continues to become better organized, with a tightly coiled band
of convection wrapping around the center. There has also been
evidence of a small eye in recent microwave and infrared satellite
pictures. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates
range from 77 kt to 90 kt, and the initial intensity has been
increased to 85 kt for this advisory.

Willa is moving northwestward or 325/6 kt. The track guidance
continues to indicate that Willa will move northwestward today,
then turn northward on Monday, and then head north-northeastward
on Tuesday between a deep-layer ridge that extends westward from the
Gulf of Mexico and an approaching mid-level trough. The dynamical
model guidance remains in good overall agreement on this scenario,
but there are differences in how quickly Willa will accelerate
north-northeastward. The UKMET and ECMWF are much slower than the
remainder of the dynamical models, with the GFS and GFS ensemble
mean the fastest. The NHC track forecast brings the center of the
Willa onshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico within 72 h, and
it lies closest to the HFIP corrected consensus, which is a little
faster than the other consensus aids.

The hurricane is expected to remain within low vertical wind shear
and over warm waters of around 28 degrees Celsius during the next
day or two. These very favorable conditions are expected to allow
steady to rapid strengthening through Monday night, and the NHC
forecast is near the upper end of the intensity guidance. By 48
hours, increasing southwesterly shear is forecast to initiate
weakening, but Willa is likely to remain a very strong hurricane
through landfall in southwestern Mexico. After landfall, rapid
weakening and dissipation over the mountainous terrain of mainland
Mexico should occur.

Key Messages:

1. Willa is forecast to be a hurricane when it reaches the coast of
southwestern mainland Mexico by late Tuesday or Wednesday bringing a
life-threatening storm surge, dangerous winds, and life-threatening
flash flooding, and hurricane and tropical storm watches are now
in effect for a portion of the area. Residents in the watch areas
should monitor the progress of this system and follow any advice
given by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 16.6N 106.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 17.2N 107.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 18.2N 107.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 19.3N 107.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 20.4N 107.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 23.3N 105.5W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
96H 25/1200Z 26.5N 101.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-21 15:32

WTPZ34 KNHC 211442 RRA
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILLA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
900 AM MDT SUN OCT 21 2018

...WILLA CONTINUES TO QUICKLY STRENGTHEN...
....HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 106.7W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST
OF MEXICO FROM SAN BLAS NORTHWARD TO MAZATLAN, AND A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FROM PLAYA PERULA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF SAN BLAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
.. PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO LATER TODAY, AND INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE
COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD

2018-10-21 15:32

WTPZ34 KNHC 211442
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Willa Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
900 AM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018

...WILLA CONTINUES TO QUICKLY STRENGTHEN...
...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 106.7W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the coast
of Mexico from San Blas northward to Mazatlan, and a Tropical Storm
Watch from Playa Perula northward to south of San Blas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* San Blas to Mazatlan

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to San Blas

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Additional watches may be required for a portion of the coast of
mainland Mexico later today, and interests elsewhere along the
coasts of west-central and southwestern mainland Mexico should
monitor the progress of Willa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Willa was located
near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 106.7 West. Willa is moving
toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through today. A turn toward the
north-northwest and north is expected by tonight and Monday.
Willa is expected to accelerate toward the north-northeast and
approach the coast of southwestern coast of mainland Mexico by
late Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during
the next day or so, and Willa is expected to become a major
hurricane by Monday morning.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
(95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge and large and destructive
waves are possible along portions of the coast of southwestern
Mexico by Tuesday or Tuesday night.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by late Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by
Tuesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
tropical storm watch area by early Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches,
across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, and southern
Sinaloa in Mexico. This rainfall would cause life-threatening flash
flooding and landslides.

Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce 2 to 4 inch amounts
across portions of Zacateca, Durango, southeast Chihuahua, and
Coahuila in Mexico, with local amounts to 6 inches possible. This
rainfall could also cause life-threatening flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Willa should begin to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico by Monday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

2018-10-21 15:32

WTPZ24 KNHC 211442 RRA
TCMEP4

HURRICANE WILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
1500 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST
OF MEXICO FROM SAN BLAS NORTHWARD TO MAZATLAN... AND A TROPICAL
STORM
WATCH FROM PLAYA PERULA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF SAN BLAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
. SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
... PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO LATER TODAY... AND INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE
COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 106.7W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL

2018-10-21 15:32

WTPZ24 KNHC 211442
TCMEP4

HURRICANE WILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
1500 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST
OF MEXICO FROM SAN BLAS NORTHWARD TO MAZATLAN... AND A TROPICAL
STORM
WATCH FROM PLAYA PERULA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF SAN BLAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO LATER TODAY... AND INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE
COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 106.7W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 106.7W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 106.6W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.2N 107.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 18.2N 107.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.3N 107.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 20.4N 107.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 23.3N 105.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 26.5N 101.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 106.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

2018-10-21 09:32

WTPZ44 KNHC 210844 RRA
TCDEP4

HURRICANE WILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
300 AM MDT SUN OCT 21 2018

WILLA HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY BASED ON A WELL-DEFINED CDO
WITH AN INTERMITTENT PINHOLE EYE EVIDENT IN HIGH-RESOLUTION GOES-16
INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BECOME WELL
ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE INTENSITY IS DIFFICULT TO
ASCERTAIN SINCE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES VARY WIDELY BASED ON
THE SCENE TYPE USED AND ALSO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE HURRICANE. TAFB
AND SAB BOTH PROVIDED AN ESTIMATE OF T4.0/65 KT, WHEREAS UW-CIMSS
ADT AND SATCON WERE 67 KT AND 56 KT, RESPECTIVELY. IN CONTRAST, NHC
OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ARE T5.0/90 KT USING AN EMBEDDED CENTER AND AS
HIGH AS T6.0/115 KT USING A PINHOLE EYE. GIVEN THAT THE EYE HAS NOT
BEEN MAINTAINED IN IR IMAGERY, THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 75 KT LIES
BETWEEN THE SUBJECTIVE TAFB/SAB ESTIMATE AND LOWER NHC OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATE.

WILLA IS MOVING AT 315/06 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. WILLA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 H OR SO, FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH ON MONDAY, WITH A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS THE HURRICANE GRADUALLY ROUNDS THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE. BY LATE TUESDAY, WILLA IS
FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH
THAT WILL BE APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA, RESULTING IN LANDFALL
ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST 00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY PACKED ABOUT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK,
AND ONLY MINOR FORWARD SPEED ADJUSTMENTS WERE REQUIRED. A 96-H

2018-10-21 09:32

WTPZ44 KNHC 210844
TCDEP4

Hurricane Willa Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
300 AM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018

Willa has continued to rapidly intensify based on a well-defined CDO
with an intermittent pinhole eye evident in high-resolution GOES-16
infrared (IR) satellite imagery. Upper-level outflow has become well
established in all quadrants. The intensity is difficult to
ascertain since satellite intensity estimates vary widely based on
the scene type used and also the small size of the hurricane. TAFB
and SAB both provided an estimate of T4.0/65 kt, whereas UW-CIMSS
ADT and SATCON were 67 kt and 56 kt, respectively. In contrast, NHC
objective T-numbers are T5.0/90 kt using an embedded center and as
high as T6.0/115 kt using a pinhole eye. Given that the eye has not
been maintained in IR imagery, the advisory intensity of 75 kt lies
between the subjective TAFB/SAB estimate and lower NHC objective
estimate.

Willa is moving at 315/06 kt. There is no significant change to the
previous forecast track reasoning. Willa is forecast to continue
moving northwestward for the next 24 h or so, followed by a turn
toward the north on Monday, with a motion toward the northeast
expected on Tuesday as the hurricane gradually rounds the western
periphery of the deep-layer ridge. By late Tuesday, Willa is
forecast to accelerate northeastward ahead of a deep-layer trough
that will be approaching Baja California, resulting in landfall
along the west-central coast of Mexico on Wednesday. The latest 00Z
model guidance is tightly packed about the previous forecast track,
and only minor forward speed adjustments were required. A 96-h
position has been provided only for continuity purposes, and Willa
will likely have dissipated over the Mexican mountains by then.

Willa's small inner-core wind field along with ideal environmental
conditions consisting of low shear, high mid-level moisture, and
warm SSTs of 28 deg C should allow the hurricane to continue to
rapidly intensify for the next 24-36 hours, followed by a leveling
off in the intensity by early Tuesday due to expected cold upwelling
beneath the slow-moving hurricane. In 60-72 hours, increasing
southwesterly shear ahead of the aforementioned deep-layer trough is
expected to induce steady weakening until landfall occurs. Rapid
dissipation over the mountainous terrain of mainland Mexico will
occur after landfall. The official intensity forecast is a tad
above the consensus models HCCA and FSSE, and is little below the
robust Navy COAMPS-TC model forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 16.2N 106.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 16.8N 107.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 17.6N 107.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 18.7N 107.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 19.8N 107.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 22.3N 106.1W 90 KT 105 MPH...NEAR WNCTRL MEXICO
96H 25/0600Z 26.9N 101.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND NCNTRL MEXICO
120H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-21 09:32

WTPZ34 KNHC 210841 RRA
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILLA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
300 AM MDT SUN OCT 21 2018

...WILLA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A HURRICANE SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...
....EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY MONDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 106.5W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILLA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 106.5 WEST. WILLA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED BY LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
WILLA IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND APPROACH
THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MAINLAND MEXICO BY LATE TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH (140 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAPID STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO, AND WILLA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY
MONDAY MORNING.

WILLA IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ONLY
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES (20 KM) FROM THE CENTER AND

2018-10-21 09:32

WTPZ34 KNHC 210841
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Willa Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
300 AM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018

...WILLA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A HURRICANE SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY MONDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 106.5W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the coasts of west-central and southwestern mainland
Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Willa was located
near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 106.5 West. Willa is moving
toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through early Sunday. A turn toward the
north-northwest and north is expected by late Sunday and Monday.
Willa is expected to accelerate toward the northeast and approach
the coast of west-central mainland Mexico by late Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next
day or so, and Willa is expected to become a major hurricane by
Monday morning.

Willa is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds only
extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds only extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Willa should begin to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico by Monday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-21 09:32

WTPZ24 KNHC 210840 RRA
TCMEP4

HURRICANE WILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
0900 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 106.5W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 106.5W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 106.3W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.8N 107.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.6N 107.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.7N 107.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 19.8N 107.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW.

2018-10-21 09:32

WTPZ24 KNHC 210840
TCMEP4

HURRICANE WILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
0900 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 106.5W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 106.5W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 106.3W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.8N 107.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.6N 107.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.7N 107.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 19.8N 107.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 22.3N 106.1W...NR WEST-CNTRL COAST OF MEXICO
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 80SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 26.9N 101.2W...INLAND OVER NCNTRL MEXICO
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 106.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

2018-10-21 04:31

WTNT82 EGRR 210357

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 21.10.2018

TROPICAL STORM VICENTE ANALYSED POSITION : 14.4N 94.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP232018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 21.10.2018 0 14.4N 94.7W 999 39
1200UTC 21.10.2018 12 13.7N 96.6W 1001 42
0000UTC 22.10.2018 24 13.9N 98.7W 1006 30
1200UTC 22.10.2018 36 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM WILLA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.7N 106.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP242018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 21.10.2018 0 15.7N 106.0W 1000 33
1200UTC 21.10.2018 12 16.1N 107.0W 997 34
0000UTC 22.10.2018 24 16.4N 107.1W 991 39
1200UTC 22.10.2018 36 17.5N 107.8W 983 51
0000UTC 23.10.2018 48 17.9N 108.2W 977 57
1200UTC 23.10.2018 60 18.5N 108.3W 966 68
0000UTC 24.10.2018 72 19.2N 108.4W 960 73
1200UTC 24.10.2018 84 20.4N 108.0W 957 73
0000UTC 25.10.2018 96 22.3N 106.9W 947 82
1200UTC 25.10.2018 108 24.8N 104.0W 1004 26
0000UTC 26.10.2018 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 29.4N 86.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.10.2018 132 29.3N 85.0W 1005 28
0000UTC 27.10.2018 144 32.8N 78.7W 1002 34


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 210357

2018-10-21 04:31

WTNT80 EGRR 210357

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 21.10.2018

TROPICAL STORM VICENTE ANALYSED POSITION : 14.4N 94.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP232018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 21.10.2018 14.4N 94.7W MODERATE
12UTC 21.10.2018 13.7N 96.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.10.2018 13.9N 98.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 22.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM WILLA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.7N 106.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP242018

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 21.10.2018 15.7N 106.0W WEAK
12UTC 21.10.2018 16.1N 107.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.10.2018 16.4N 107.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 22.10.2018 17.5N 107.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 23.10.2018 17.9N 108.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 23.10.2018 18.5N 108.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 24.10.2018 19.2N 108.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 24.10.2018 20.4N 108.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.10.2018 22.3N 106.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 25.10.2018 24.8N 104.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 26.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 29.4N 86.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 26.10.2018 29.3N 85.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.10.2018 32.8N 78.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 210357

2018-10-21 03:32

WTPZ44 KNHC 210232 RRA
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM WILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
900 PM MDT SAT OCT 20 2018

WILLA HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED SINCE GENESIS OCCURRED LAST NIGHT,
AND IT IS ALMOST A HURRICANE. GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE AND
MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME WELL
ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS AND THE INNER CORE HAS CONTINUED TO
ORGANIZE. THERE IS STILL NO EVIDENCE OF AN EYE FEATURE,
HOWEVER. A BLEND OF THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
SUPPORTS INCREASING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED TO 60 KT.

THE LATEST SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT WILLA IS NOW MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
TURN TO THE RIGHT AS IT MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE. IN RESPONSE, A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
ON MONDAY. AFTER THAT TIME, A FASTER NORTH-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST
MOTION IS EXPECTED WHEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE SYSTEM.
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE, EXCEPT FOR THE UKMET, SHOW WILLA MAKING
A SHARPER NORTHWARD TURN AND AT A FASTER PACE. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE LATEST CONSENSUS AIDS. THIS FORECAST IS AGAIN FASTER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SHOWS WILLA MAKING LANDFALL OVER WEST-CENTRAL
MEXICO IN 72 TO 96 HOURS.

THE STORM HAS TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF NEAR IDEAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
OF VERY LOW WIND SHEAR, HIGH LEVELS OF MOISTURE, AND WARM 29 DEG C
SSTS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ANOTHER COUPLE
OF DAYS, AND THAT SHOULD ALLOW WILLA TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN

2018-10-21 03:32

WTPZ44 KNHC 210232
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Willa Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
900 PM MDT Sat Oct 20 2018

Willa has rapidly intensified since genesis occurred last night,
and it is almost a hurricane. Geostationary satellite and
microwave images indicate that banding features have become well
established in all quadrants and the inner core has continued to
organize. There is still no evidence of an eye feature,
however. A blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates
supports increasing the initial wind speed to 60 kt.

The latest satellite fixes indicate that Willa is now moving
northwestward at about 5 kt. The storm is expected to gradually
turn to the right as it moves around the western periphery of a
mid-level ridge. In response, a northwestward motion should
continue for another day or so, followed by a turn toward the north
on Monday. After that time, a faster north-northeast to northeast
motion is expected when a shortwave trough approaches the system.
The latest model guidance, except for the UKMET, show Willa making
a sharper northward turn and at a faster pace. The NHC track
forecast has been adjusted accordingly to be in better agreement
with the latest consensus aids. This forecast is again faster than
the previous one and shows Willa making landfall over west-central
Mexico in 72 to 96 hours.

The storm has taken advantage of near ideal environmental conditions
of very low wind shear, high levels of moisture, and warm 29 deg C
SSTs. These conditions are expected to prevail for another couple
of days, and that should allow Willa to continue to strengthen
rapidly. In fact, the SHIPS Rapid Intensification (RI) indices
show about 90 percent chance of RI continuing during the next 24
hours. Based on this information and the latest model guidance, the
NHC intensity forecast shows Willa becoming a major hurricane in a
day or so. Some weakening is likely before Willa reaches the coast
due to an increase in shear and a decrease in available moisture,
but Willa is forecast to be a hurricane when it reaches the
coastline. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected due to
interaction with the rugged terrain.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 15.7N 106.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 16.1N 106.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 16.9N 107.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 17.7N 107.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 18.7N 107.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 20.7N 107.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 24.1N 104.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-10-21 03:32

WTPZ34 KNHC 210231 RRA
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM WILLA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
900 PM MDT SAT OCT 20 2018

...WILLA ALMOST A HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN A
DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 106.1W
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILLA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 106.1 WEST. WILLA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED BY LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
WILLA IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND APPROACH
THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MAINLAND MEXICO BY LATE TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAPID STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, AND WILLA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE
OVERNIGHT AND A MAJOR HURRICANE BY MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB (29.36 INCHES).

2018-10-21 03:32

WTPZ34 KNHC 210231
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Willa Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
900 PM MDT Sat Oct 20 2018

...WILLA ALMOST A HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN A
DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 106.1W
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the coast of west-central mainland Mexico should
monitor the progress of Willa.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Willa was
located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 106.1 West. Willa is
moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through early Sunday. A turn toward
the north-northwest and north is expected by late Sunday and Monday.
Willa is expected to accelerate toward the northeast and approach
the coast of west-central mainland Mexico by late Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next
couple of days, and Willa is expected to become a hurricane
overnight and a major hurricane by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Willa should begin to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico by Monday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

2018-10-21 03:32

WTPZ24 KNHC 210231 RRA
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM WILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
0300 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 106.1W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 45SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 106.1W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 105.9W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.1N 106.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.9N 107.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.7N 107.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 18.7N 107.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.7N 107.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

2018-10-21 03:32

WTPZ24 KNHC 210231
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM WILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
0300 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 106.1W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 45SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 106.1W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 105.9W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.1N 106.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.9N 107.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.7N 107.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 18.7N 107.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.7N 107.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 24.1N 104.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 106.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

2018-10-20 21:32

WTPZ44 KNHC 202032 RRA
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM WILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
400 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2018

WILLA APPEARS TO BE WRAPPING UP QUICKLY, AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
IS NOW EMBEDDED BENEATH A RAGGED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. ASCAT DATA
FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO INDICATED WINDS WERE AS HIGH AS 40 KT, BUT
MORE RECENT SATELLITE ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INTENSITY BETWEEN 45-55
KT, AND THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE SET AT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

WILLA HAS TURNED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOWED DOWN, AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 295/5 KT. THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO RECURVE AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
THAT LIES OVER MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND THEN ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO MAINLAND MEXICO BY DAYS 4 AND 5 AHEAD OF A BROAD
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS, THE NEW
TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SPED UP SIGNIFICANTLY AND ALSO NOW SHOWS A
SHARPER RECURVATURE, BOTH OF WHICH SUGGEST THAT WILLA'S HAZARDS
COULD REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO SOONER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT.
THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN THE FASTEST OF THE MODELS, AND ALTHOUGH
THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST TRENDS IN THEIR DIRECTION, IT HANGS
BACK A BIT TO GIVE SOME WEIGHT TO THE HWRF, HCCA, AND FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE. EVEN WITH THAT CONSIDERATION, THE NEW FORECAST DOES
BRING WILLA TO THE COAST SOONER THAN BEFORE.

THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE SUGGESTS THAT THE STORM IS ORGANIZING
QUICKLY AND IS PROBABLY IN THE BEGINNING STAGES OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI). THE RI INDICES ARE EVEN HIGHER THIS
AFTERNOON THAN THEY WERE THIS MORNING, AND INCREDIBLY, THE HWRF,
SHIPS, HCCA, AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE ALL BRING WILLA NEAR OR

2018-10-20 21:32

WTPZ44 KNHC 202032
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Willa Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
400 PM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018

Willa appears to be wrapping up quickly, and the low-level center
is now embedded beneath a ragged central dense overcast. ASCAT data
from several hours ago indicated winds were as high as 40 kt, but
more recent satellite estimates support an intensity between 45-55
kt, and the maximum winds are set at 50 kt for this advisory.

Willa has turned west-northwestward and slowed down, and the
initial motion is estimated to be 295/5 kt. The cyclone is
forecast to recurve around the western edge of a mid-level ridge
that lies over Mexico during the next few days, and then accelerate
northeastward into mainland Mexico by days 4 and 5 ahead of a broad
mid-latitude trough. Compared to previous model runs, the new
track guidance has sped up significantly and also now shows a
sharper recurvature, both of which suggest that Willa's hazards
could reach the coast of Mexico sooner than originally thought.
The GFS and ECMWF remain the fastest of the models, and although
the updated NHC track forecast trends in their direction, it hangs
back a bit to give some weight to the HWRF, HCCA, and Florida State
Superensemble. Even with that consideration, the new forecast does
bring Willa to the coast sooner than before.

The satellite signature suggests that the storm is organizing
quickly and is probably in the beginning stages of rapid
intensification (RI). The RI indices are even higher this
afternoon than they were this morning, and incredibly, the HWRF,
SHIPS, HCCA, and Florida State Superensemble all bring Willa near or
at major hurricane intensity in 36 hours. The NHC forecast follows
those models' lead and indicates significant strengthening over the
next couple of days. A peak in intensity is likely to occur
between 48-72 hours, followed by some weakening due to lower
oceanic heat content and increasing vertical shear. Despite the
expected weakening, Willa is expected to reach the coast of
west-central mainland Mexico as a hurricane in about 4 days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 15.2N 105.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 15.5N 106.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 16.1N 106.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 16.8N 107.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 17.6N 107.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 19.1N 108.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 24/1800Z 22.0N 106.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 25/1800Z 24.5N 103.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-10-20 21:32

WTPZ34 KNHC 202032
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM WILLA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
400 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2018

...WILLA FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME A HURRICANE
OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 105.8W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILLA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 105.8 WEST. WILLA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H). A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. WILLA COULD APPROACH THE COAST OF
WEST-CENTRAL MAINLAND MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY AS IT BEGINS TO
ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAPID STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, AND WILLA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE
OVERNIGHT OR ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB (29.50 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 PM CDT.

...
FORECASTER BERG

2018-10-20 21:32

WTPZ24 KNHC 202030 RRA
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM WILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
2100 UTC SAT OCT 20 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 105.8W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 105.8W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 105.5W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.5N 106.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.1N 106.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.8N 107.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 17.6N 107.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.1N 108.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

2018-10-20 21:32

WTPZ24 KNHC 202030
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM WILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
2100 UTC SAT OCT 20 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 105.8W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 105.8W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 105.5W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.5N 106.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.1N 106.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.8N 107.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 17.6N 107.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.1N 108.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 22.0N 106.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 24.5N 103.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 105.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

2018-10-20 15:31

WTPZ44 KNHC 201446 RRA
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM WILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
1000 AM CDT SAT OCT 20 2018

A GMI MICROWAVE PASS OVER THE DEPRESSION AT 0916 UTC REVEALED THAT A
TIGHT INNER CORE HAS DEVELOPED, WITH A CYAN AND PINK RING NOTED IN
THE LOW-LEVEL 37-GHZ CHANNEL. OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS ALSO
BEEN INCREASING, AND A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORTS RAISING THE MAXIMUM
WINDS TO 35 KT AND DESIGNATING THE CYCLONE AS TROPICAL STORM WILLA.
ON AN HISTORICAL NOTE, THIS IS THE FIRST TIME THAT AT LEAST 21 NAMED
STORMS HAVE FORMED WITHIN THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN SINCE THE 1992
SEASON.

THE MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT WILLA'S CENTER IS A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED, AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
CALCULATED TO BE WESTWARD, OR 270/8 KT. THE STORM IS ALREADY
LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH
EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO, AND WILLA IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY RECURVE AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS DURING THE NEXT 4 DAYS. BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. IS LIKELY TO CAUSE WILLA TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST IN THE DIRECTION OF MAINLAND MEXICO. ALL OF THE TRACK
MODELS AGREE ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO, BUT THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES ON HOW WIDE A TURN WILLA MAKES WHILE IT RECURVES.
THERE ARE ALSO SOME SPEED DIFFERENCES THAT APPEAR TO BE RELATED TO
HOW STRONG WILLA WILL BE WHEN THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH BECOMES THE
MAIN STEERING DRIVER. THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME, THE

2018-10-20 15:31

WTPZ44 KNHC 201446
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Willa Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018

A GMI microwave pass over the depression at 0916 UTC revealed that a
tight inner core has developed, with a cyan and pink ring noted in
the low-level 37-GHz channel. Outer convective banding has also
been increasing, and a consensus of the latest subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates supports raising the maximum
winds to 35 kt and designating the cyclone as Tropical Storm Willa.
On an historical note, this is the first time that at least 21 named
storms have formed within the eastern Pacific basin since the 1992
season.

The microwave data suggest that Willa's center is a little farther
south than previously estimated, and the initial motion is
calculated to be westward, or 270/8 kt. The storm is already
located near the western periphery of a mid-level ridge which
extends across northern and central Mexico, and Willa is expected
to slowly recurve around the ridge axis during the next 4 days. By
the end of the forecast period, a mid-latitude trough located over
the western U.S. is likely to cause Willa to accelerate toward the
northeast in the direction of mainland Mexico. All of the track
models agree on this general scenario, but there are some
differences on how wide a turn Willa makes while it recurves.
There are also some speed differences that appear to be related to
how strong Willa will be when the mid-latitude trough becomes the
main steering driver. The NHC forecast is very close to the
previous forecast during the first 48 hours. After that time, the
forecast has been nudged eastward since the GFS and ECMWF models are
both near or east of the multi-model consensus aids.

With a low-level ring already observed in microwave imagery, and
Willa located in an environment of low shear and over very warm
ocean water, the cyclone appears poised to go through a period of
rapid intensification (RI). Several of the various RI indices are
over 50 percent, and thus the NHC forecast favors the high end of
the intensity guidance and explicitly shows rapid strengthening
over the next 48 hours. Willa is expected to be moving more slowly
by days 3 and 4 (about 3 kt), and upwelling of colder water could
induce some weakening by that time. An increase in shear is likely
to cause more significant weakening by the end of the forecast
period. The new NHC intensity forecast is a bit higher than the
previous forecast to account for the possibility of rapid
intensification, and it shifts Willa's expected peak intensity about
a day earlier.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 14.8N 105.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 15.0N 106.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 15.3N 107.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 15.8N 107.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 16.6N 108.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 17.7N 109.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 19.0N 109.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 22.0N 107.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

2018-10-20 15:31

WTPZ34 KNHC 201445
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM WILLA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
1000 AM CDT SAT OCT 20 2018

...WILLA BECOMES THE 21ST NAMED STORM OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 105.7W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILLA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 105.7 WEST. WILLA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, KEEPING WILLA WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF
MEXICO DURING THAT TIME.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAPID STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, AND WILLA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON
SUNDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 PM CDT.

...
FORECASTER BERG

2018-10-20 15:31

WTPZ24 KNHC 201445 RRA
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM WILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
1500 UTC SAT OCT 20 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 105.7W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 40SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 105.7W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 105.4W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.0N 106.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.3N 107.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 15.8N 107.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.6N 108.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.7N 109.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

2018-10-20 15:31

WTPZ24 KNHC 201445
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM WILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
1500 UTC SAT OCT 20 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 105.7W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 40SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 105.7W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 105.4W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.0N 106.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.3N 107.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 15.8N 107.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.6N 108.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.7N 109.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 19.0N 109.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 22.0N 107.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 105.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

2018-10-20 11:31

WTPZ24 KNHC 201101 RRA
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR-E
FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
0900 UTC SAT OCT 20 2018

CORRECTED HEADER FORMAT

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 104.9W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 104.9W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 104.5W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.5N 105.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.9N 106.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.5N 107.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.1N 108.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 18.0N 109.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 19.2N 109.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 21.7N 108.5W

2018-10-20 11:31

WTPZ24 KNHC 201101 CCB
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR-E
FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
0900 UTC SAT OCT 20 2018

CORRECTED HEADER FORMAT

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 104.9W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 104.9W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 104.5W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.5N 105.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.9N 106.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.5N 107.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.1N 108.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 18.0N 109.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 19.2N 109.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 21.7N 108.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 104.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

2018-10-20 09:31

WTPZ44 KNHC 200905 RRA
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
400 AM CDT SAT OCT 20 2018

CORRECTED ADVISORY NUMBER FROM 2 TO 1

VARIOUS SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
NHC HAS BEEN MONITORING OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR THEW
PAST FEW DAYS HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO BE
DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION, THE TWENTY-FOURTH ONE OF THE
VERY BUSY 2018 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON. ALTHOUGH THE
DEPRESSION IS A SHEARED SYSTEM, SOME BANDING FEATURES HAVE RECENTLY
DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE CENTER, WHILE OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS JUST
WEST OF THE CENTER ARE QUITE COLD -85 TO -91 DEG C). THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T2.0/30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/08 KT, BASED PRIMARILY ON PASSIVE
MICROWAVE FIXES AND GOES-16 NIGHTTIME IMAGERY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY A
SLOWER NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ON SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE. A SLOW
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHILE THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH CHANGES LITTLE. ON DAYS 4 AND 5,
HOWEVER, A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE LARGER SCALE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LOCKED IN OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND NORTHERN MEXICO, CAUSING AN EROSION OF THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO
GRADUALLY RECURVE NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THE NHC MODEL

2018-10-20 09:31

WTPZ44 KNHC 200905 CCA
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Twenty-Four-E Discussion Number 1...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
400 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018

Corrected advisory number from 2 to 1

Various satellite data indicate that the area of low pressure that
NHC has been monitoring off the coast of southern Mexico for thew
past few days has acquired enough convective organization to be
designated as a tropical depression, the twenty-fourth one of the
very busy 2018 eastern North Pacific hurricane season. Although the
depression is a sheared system, some banding features have recently
developed south of the center, while overshooting cloud tops just
west of the center are quite cold -85 to -91 deg C). The initial
intensity is set to 30 kt based on a satellite intensity estimate of
T2.0/30 kt from both TAFB and SAB.

The initial motion estimate is 280/08 kt, based primarily on passive
microwave fixes and GOES-16 nighttime imagery. A gradual turn toward
the west-northwest is expected by this afternoon, followed by a
slower northwestward motion on Sunday as the system moves along the
southwestern periphery of a weakening mid-level ridge. A slow
northwestward motion is expected to continue into early next week
while the ridge to the north changes little. On days 4 and 5,
however, a series of weak shortwave troughs are forecast to move
through the larger scale southwesterly flow locked in over the
southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico, causing an erosion of the
western portion of the ridge, which should allow the cyclone to
gradually recurve northward and north-northeastward. The NHC model
guidance is in good agreement overall on this developing track
scenario, and the official forecast track lies between the HCCA and
TVCE track consensus aids.

The depression is expected to steadily strengthen during the next 96
hours due to very favorable environmental conditions consisting of
low vertical wind shear (less than 10 kt), high amounts of mid-level
moisture, and warm 28-30 deg C SSTs. As a result, the cyclone is
expected to become a tropical storm later this morning, a hurricane
by Sunday night, and be near major hurricane strength by Wednesday.
Given the very favorable conditions expected on Sunday and Monday,
there is a fair chance of rapid intensification occurring similar to
that depicted by the COAMPS-TC and HMON models, which bring the
cyclone to category-4 status around 72 hours. The NHC official
intensity forecast near the HCCA and IVCN consensus models through
96 hours, and then a little above the guidance at 120 hours despite
an increase in the shear expected at that time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 15.1N 104.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 15.5N 105.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 15.9N 106.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 16.5N 107.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 17.1N 108.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 18.0N 109.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 24/0600Z 19.2N 109.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 25/0600Z 21.7N 108.5W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-20 09:31

WTPZ44 KNHC 200859 RRA
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
400 AM CDT SAT OCT 20 2018

VARIOUS SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
NHC HAS BEEN MONITORING OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR THEW
PAST FEW DAYS HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO BE
DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION, THE TWENTY-FOURTH ONE OF THE
VERY BUSY 2018 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON. ALTHOUGH THE
DEPRESSION IS A SHEARED SYSTEM, SOME BANDING FEATURES HAVE RECENTLY
DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE CENTER, WHILE OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS JUST
WEST OF THE CENTER ARE QUITE COLD -85 TO -91 DEG C). THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T2.0/30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/08 KT, BASED PRIMARILY ON PASSIVE
MICROWAVE FIXES AND GOES-16 NIGHTTIME IMAGERY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY A
SLOWER NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ON SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE. A SLOW
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHILE THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH CHANGES LITTLE. ON DAYS 4 AND 5,
HOWEVER, A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE LARGER SCALE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LOCKED IN OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND NORTHERN MEXICO, CAUSING AN EROSION OF THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO
GRADUALLY RECURVE NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THE NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL ON THIS DEVELOPING TRACK

2018-10-20 09:31

WTPZ44 KNHC 200859
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Twenty-Four-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
400 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018

Various satellite data indicate that the area of low pressure that
NHC has been monitoring off the coast of southern Mexico for thew
past few days has acquired enough convective organization to be
designated as a tropical depression, the twenty-fourth one of the
very busy 2018 eastern North Pacific hurricane season. Although the
depression is a sheared system, some banding features have recently
developed south of the center, while overshooting cloud tops just
west of the center are quite cold -85 to -91 deg C). The initial
intensity is set to 30 kt based on a satellite intensity estimate of
T2.0/30 kt from both TAFB and SAB.

The initial motion estimate is 280/08 kt, based primarily on passive
microwave fixes and GOES-16 nighttime imagery. A gradual turn toward
the west-northwest is expected by this afternoon, followed by a
slower northwestward motion on Sunday as the system moves along the
southwestern periphery of a weakening mid-level ridge. A slow
northwestward motion is expected to continue into early next week
while the ridge to the north changes little. On days 4 and 5,
however, a series of weak shortwave troughs are forecast to move
through the larger scale southwesterly flow locked in over the
southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico, causing an erosion of the
western portion of the ridge, which should allow the cyclone to
gradually recurve northward and north-northeastward. The NHC model
guidance is in good agreement overall on this developing track
scenario, and the official forecast track lies between the HCCA and
TVCE track consensus aids.

The depression is expected to steadily strengthen during the next 96
hours due to very favorable environmental conditions consisting of
low vertical wind shear (less than 10 kt), high amounts of mid-level
moisture, and warm 28-30 deg C SSTs. As a result, the cyclone is
expected to become a tropical storm later this morning, a hurricane
by Sunday night, and be near major hurricane strength by Wednesday.
Given the very favorable conditions expected on Sunday and Monday,
there is a fair chance of rapid intensification occurring similar to
that depicted by the COAMPS-TC and HMON models, which bring the
cyclone to category-4 status around 72 hours. The NHC official
intensity forecast near the HCCA and IVCN consensus models through
96 hours, and then a little above the guidance at 120 hours despite
an increase in the shear expected at that time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 15.1N 104.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 15.5N 105.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 15.9N 106.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 16.5N 107.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 17.1N 108.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 18.0N 109.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 24/0600Z 19.2N 109.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 25/0600Z 21.7N 108.5W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-20 09:31

WTPZ34 KNHC 200903 RRA
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
400 AM CDT SAT OCT 20 2018

CORRECTED ADVISORY NUMBER FORM 2 TO 1

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...
....NO THREAT TO LAND OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 104.9W
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH,
LONGITUDE 104.9 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR
9 MPH (15 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY THIS
AFTERNOON. A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER THIS MORNING
AND REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------

2018-10-20 09:31

WTPZ34 KNHC 200903 CCA
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-Four-E Advisory Number 1...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
400 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018

Corrected advisory number form 2 to 1

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...
...NO THREAT TO LAND OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 104.9W
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical
Depression Twenty-Four-E was located near latitude 15.1 North,
longitude 104.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west near
9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue this
morning, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest by this
afternoon. A motion toward the northwest is forecast on Sunday and
Monday, with the tropical cyclone remaining well offshore the
southwestern coast of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later this morning
and reach hurricane strength by Sunday night or Monday morning.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

2018-10-20 09:31

WTPZ34 KNHC 200837
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
400 AM CDT SAT OCT 20 2018

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...
...NO THREAT TO LAND OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 104.9W
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH,
LONGITUDE 104.9 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR
9 MPH (15 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY THIS
AFTERNOON. A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER THIS MORNING
AND REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 AM CDT.

..
FORECASTER STEWART

2018-10-20 09:31

WTPZ24 KNHC 200837 RRA
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
0900 UTC SAT OCT 20 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 104.9W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 104.9W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 104.5W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.5N 105.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.9N 106.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.5N 107.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.1N 108.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 18.0N 109.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 19.2N 109.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 21.7N 108.5W

2018-10-20 09:31

WTPZ24 KNHC 200837
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018
0900 UTC SAT OCT 20 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 104.9W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 104.9W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 104.5W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.5N 105.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.9N 106.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.5N 107.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.1N 108.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 18.0N 109.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 19.2N 109.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 21.7N 108.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 104.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART