Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CILIDA-18
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.




Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 250609
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/12/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 029/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 25/12/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (EX-CILIDA) 996 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.0 S / 68.9 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 200 MN IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 125 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 175 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/25 AT 18 UTC:
32.4 S / 69.9 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/12/26 AT 06 UTC:
35.4 S / 71.0 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY LA REUNION RSMC ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION, PLEASE REFER TO SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR METAREA VIII(S)
FQIO26 FIMP.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 250008
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/12/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 028/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 25/12/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (EX-CILIDA) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.7 S / 68.0 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 400 MN IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/25 AT 12 UTC:
30.4 S / 69.0 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/12/26 AT 00 UTC:
33.5 S / 70.3 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 242100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 27.1S 67.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.1S 67.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 29.4S 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 27.1S 67.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.1S 67.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 29.4S 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 27.7S 67.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CILIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 696 NM
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 241754Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A FULLY-
EXPOSED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION
SHEARED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO STRONG (30 TO 40 KNOTS)
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON A 241649Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING A SWATH OF 50-55
KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT. TC 07S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
POLEWARD WITHIN STRONG SUBTROPICAL WESTERLY FLOW NEAR THE 200MB JET
AND APPEARS TO BE TRANSITIONING TO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. A RECENT
AMSU TEMPERATURE ANOMALY CROSS-SECTION INDICATES A LOW-LEVEL WARM
ANOMALY WITH A COLD ANOMALY NEAR THE TROPOPAUSE, TYPICAL OF
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS. TC CILIDA IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY GAIN FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS AS IT FURTHER EMBEDS WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND TRANSITIONS TO A STORM-FORCE EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONE
BY TAU 12. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK BASED ON THE TIGHT GROUPING OF DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS IS
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 24
FEET.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 241820
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/12/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 027/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 24/12/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (EX-CILIDA) 983 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.7 S / 67.0 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 350 MN IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.



FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/25 AT 06 UTC:
29.4 S / 68.1 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/12/25 AT 18 UTC:
32.4 S / 69.5 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 241500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 26.3S 66.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.3S 66.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 28.0S 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 26.3S 66.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.3S 66.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 28.0S 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 30.3S 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 26.7S 66.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (TC) (CILIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
616 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 241350 CCA
...............CORRECTIVE..............
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/12/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 026/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 24/12/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (EX-CILIDA) 979 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.4 S / 66.3 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 14 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 MN IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.



FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/25 AT 00 UTC:
28.7 S / 67.7 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/12/25 AT 12 UTC:
31.2 S / 68.9 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 241242 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/12/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 026/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 24/12/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (EX-CILIDA) 979 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.4 S / 66.3 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 14 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 MN IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.



FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/25 AT 00 UTC:
28.7 S / 67.7 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/12/25 AT 12 UTC:
31.2 S / 68.9 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 241231
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/12/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 026/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 24/12/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (CILIDA) 979 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.4 S / 66.3 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 14 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 MN IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.



FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/25 AT 00 UTC:
28.7 S / 67.7 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/12/25 AT 12 UTC:
31.2 S / 68.9 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 240900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 25.3S 65.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.3S 65.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 27.0S 66.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 25.3S 65.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.3S 65.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 27.0S 66.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 29.1S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 31.5S 69.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 25.7S 65.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CILIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
532 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH TC 07S IS BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST, AWAY FROM
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A PARTIAL 240530Z METOP-B
ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS
HEDGED BETWEEN DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77
KNOTS) FROM KNES AND T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. TC 07S IS
EXPERIENCING UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25 TO 30 KNOTS) WHICH
IS OFFSET BY AN EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE BECOME UNFAVORABLE, BETWEEN 25 TO 26 DEGREES
CELSIUS. TC 07S IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW TC 07S TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY
AND TRANSITION TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONE. TC 07S WILL BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 12 AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 36.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A CONTINUED
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 27
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 240641 RRA

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 25/5/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 24/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 25.3 S / 65.4 E
(VINGT CINQ DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE CINQ DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 15 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.5/4.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 975 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SO: 190 NO: 200
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 170 SO: 150 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 90
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 70 NO: 60

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 24/12/2018 18 UTC: 27.7 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
24H: 25/12/2018 06 UTC: 30.1 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 25/12/2018 18 UTC: 33.0 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 26/12/2018 06 UTC: 35.4 S / 72.2 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 26/12/2018 18 UTC: 36.6 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 27/12/2018 06 UTC: 36.9 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:



2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=3.5- CI= 4.5-

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 240641 RRA

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/5/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/24 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.3 S / 65.4 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE
DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SW: 190 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 170 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 70 NW: 60

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/24 18 UTC: 27.7 S / 67.2 E, MAX WIND=055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2018/12/25 06 UTC: 30.1 S / 68.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/12/25 18 UTC: 33.0 S / 70.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/12/26 06 UTC: 35.4 S / 72.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/12/26 18 UTC: 36.6 S / 74.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/12/27 06 UTC: 36.9 S / 76.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5- CI= 4.5-

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 240641

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 25/5/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 24/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 25.3 S / 65.4 E
(VINGT CINQ DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE CINQ DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 15 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.5/4.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 975 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SO: 190 NO: 200
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 170 SO: 150 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 90
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 70 NO: 60

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 24/12/2018 18 UTC: 27.7 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
24H: 25/12/2018 06 UTC: 30.1 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 25/12/2018 18 UTC: 33.0 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 26/12/2018 06 UTC: 35.4 S / 72.2 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 26/12/2018 18 UTC: 36.6 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 27/12/2018 06 UTC: 36.9 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:



2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=3.5- CI= 4.5-

AU COURS DE DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION DU SYSTEME A EVOLUE
VERS UNE STRUCTURE CISAILLE. LA CIRCULATION INTERNE EST DEVENU EN
PARTIE APPARENTE SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES VISIBLES. LA PASSE WINDSAT
DE 0124Z MONTRENT QUE LA CIRCULATION INTERNE VIENT SEULEMENT DE
COMMENCER A S'ALLONGER SOUS L'INFLUENCE BAROCLINE. LE STADE
POST-TROPICAL EST ATTENDU DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES. LA PASSE ASCAT
SUGGERE TOUJOURS LA PRESENCE DE VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 65KT A MINIMA.

LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE EVOLUE PEU : LE DEPLACEMENT DE CILIDA
RESTE ORIENTE AU SUD-EST, A L'AVANT DU PROFOND TALWEG D'ALTITUDE QUI
CIRCULE AU SUD DE 30AOS. PAR LA SUITE, CILIDA VA ETRE REPRIS DANS LA
CIRCULATION DE SECTEUR OUEST DES MOYENNES LATITUDES EN COURS DE NUIT
DE MERCREDI A JEUDI.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT BIEN DEFAVORABLES POUR CILIDA
AVEC UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE TROP FAIBLE. LE SYSTEME EVOLUANT EN
BORDURE D'UNE ONDULATION DU JET SUBTROPICALE, IL SUBIT UN FORT
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE NORD-OUEST. SON INTENSITE VA DIMINUER AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES HEURES. DANS CET ENVIRONNEMENT ET CONTINUANT SA
PROGRESSION VERS LES LATITUDES PLUS SUD , LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PERDRE
SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES AVANT DE SE COMBLER.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 240641

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/5/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/24 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.3 S / 65.4 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE
DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SW: 190 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 170 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 70 NW: 60

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/24 18 UTC: 27.7 S / 67.2 E, MAX WIND=055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2018/12/25 06 UTC: 30.1 S / 68.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/12/25 18 UTC: 33.0 S / 70.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/12/26 06 UTC: 35.4 S / 72.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/12/26 18 UTC: 36.6 S / 74.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/12/27 06 UTC: 36.9 S / 76.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5- CI= 4.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CLOUD PATTERN EVOLVED TOWARDS A SHEAR PATTERN.
THE INNER CICURLATION IS PARTLY APPARENT ON LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY.
0124Z WINDSAT SWATH SHOW THAT THE ELONGATION OF THE CORE HAS JUST
STARTED. POST TROPICAL STATUS IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT HOURS.
ASCAT DATA STILL SUGGEST HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT LEAST.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK FORECAST: THE DISPLACEMENT OF CILIDA
WILL REMAIN ORIENTED SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER/MID LEVEL
TROUGH. THEREAFTER, CILIDA WILL BE RESUMED IN THE WESTERLY
CIRCULATION OF THE MID-LATITUDES DURING THE NIGHT FROM WEDNESDAY TO
THURSDAY.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOW VERY UNFAVORABLE FOR CILIDA WITH
INSUFFICIENT OCEANIC POTENTIAL. THE SYSTEM EVOLVES ALONG THE EDGE OF
AN ONDULATION OF THE JET, CILIDA UNDERGOES A STRONG VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST. ITS INTENSITY WILL DECREASE IN THE
FOLLOWING HOURS. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT AND CONTINUING ITS PROGRESSION
TOWARDS MORE SOUTHERLY LATITUDES, THE SYSTEM SHOULD LOSE ITS TROPICAL
FEATURES BEFORE FILLING UP.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 240623 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/12/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 025/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 24/12/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA) 975 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.3 S / 65.4 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 MN IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 240623
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/12/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 025/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 24/12/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA) 975 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.3 S / 65.4 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 MN IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/24 AT 18 UTC:
27.7 S / 67.2 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/12/25 AT 06 UTC:
30.1 S / 68.5 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 24.3S 64.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.3S 64.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 26.1S 66.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 28.0S 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 30.1S 69.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 24.8S 64.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CILIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 459 NM
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CONVECTION BEGINNING TO BECOME ISOLATED
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC),
SUGGESTING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) WILL BEGIN SOON. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE USING A 232302Z
SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS AN APPROXIMATELY 20 NM WIDE
PARTIAL MICROWAVE EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTION SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KTS IS ROUNDED UP SLIGHTLY FROM PGTW AND
FMEE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KTS). HIGH (25-
30 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND UNFAVORABLE (25-26 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE HAVE MADE THE ENVIRONMENT HOSTILE TO
TROPICAL CYCLONES AND ETT IS EXPECTED TO BE CLEAR BY TAU 12 AND
COMPLETE BY TAU 36. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, THE CYCLONE WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN RAPIDLY, FALLING TO AN INTENSITY OF 40 KTS BY
TAU 36 WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY GROUPED, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS
28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 240019 RRA

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 24/5/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 24/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 21 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.4 S / 64.1 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATRE DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 15 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.5/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 970 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SO: 190 NO: 200
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 170 SO: 150 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 90
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 70 NO: 60

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 24/12/2018 12 UTC: 26.3 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 25/12/2018 00 UTC: 28.6 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 25/12/2018 12 UTC: 31.4 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 26/12/2018 00 UTC: 34.2 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
60H: 26/12/2018 12 UTC: 36.7 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
72H: 27/12/2018 00 UTC: 37.7 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:



2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=4.5

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 240019 RRA

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/5/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/24 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.4 S / 64.1 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR
DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SW: 190 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 170 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 70 NW: 60

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/24 12 UTC: 26.3 S / 65.8 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/12/25 00 UTC: 28.6 S / 67.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/12/25 12 UTC: 31.4 S / 68.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/12/26 00 UTC: 34.2 S / 70.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/12/26 12 UTC: 36.7 S / 71.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/12/27 00 UTC: 37.7 S / 73.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 240005 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/12/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 024/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 24/12/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA) 970 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.4 S / 64.1 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 220 MN IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 240019

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 24/5/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 24/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 21 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.4 S / 64.1 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATRE DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 15 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.5/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 970 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SO: 190 NO: 200
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 170 SO: 150 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 90
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 70 NO: 60

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 24/12/2018 12 UTC: 26.3 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 25/12/2018 00 UTC: 28.6 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 25/12/2018 12 UTC: 31.4 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 26/12/2018 00 UTC: 34.2 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
60H: 26/12/2018 12 UTC: 36.7 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
72H: 27/12/2018 00 UTC: 37.7 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:



2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=4.5

AU COURS DE DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LE SYSTEME A CONSERVE UNE
CONFIGURATION DE CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE AVEC UNE ANALYSE DVORAK DE
4.5. AU FIL DES HEURES, LA CONVECTION GLISSE DANS LE SECTEUR EST DU
CYCLONE ET LA CONFIGURATION DEVRAIT BIENTOT BASCULER EN CONFIGURATION
CISAILLEE. LE COEUR DU SYSTEME RESISTE ENCORE BIEN AU CISAILLEMENT
ENVIRONNANT, AVEC DES VENTS ESTIMES DE L'ORDRE DE 70KT.

LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE EVOLUE PEU : LE DEPLACEMENT DE CILIDA
RESTE ORIENTE AU SUD-EST A VITESSE CONSTANTE, A L'AVANT DU PROFOND
TALWEG D'ALTITUDE QUI CIRCULE AU SUD DE 30AOS. PAR LA SUITE, CILIDA
VA ETRE REPRIS DANS LA CIRCULATION DE SECTEUR OUEST DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES EN COURS DE NUIT DE MERCREDI A JEUDI.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT BIEN DEFAVORABLES POUR CILIDA.
LE SYSTEME EVOLUANT EN BORDURE D'UNE ONDULATION DU JET SUBTROPICALE,
IL SUBIT UN FORT CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE NORD-OUEST. LE COEUR DU
SYSTEME RESISTE ENCORE BIEN ET MAIS SON INTENSITE VA RAPIDEMENT
DIMINUER AU COURS DE CETTE JOURNEE DU 24 DECEMBRE. DANS CET
ENVIRONNEMENT ET CONTINUANT SA PROGRESSION VERS LES LATITUDES PLUS
SUD, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES PUREMENT TROPICAL
AU COURS DE LA NUIT DU REVEILLON DE NOEL. EN DEBUT DE JOURNEE DU 26
DECEMBRE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT COMMENCER UNE PHASE D'EXTRATROPICALISATI
ON AVANT DE SE COMBLER LENTEMENT LES JOURS SUIVANTS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 240019

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/5/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/24 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.4 S / 64.1 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR
DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SW: 190 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 170 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 70 NW: 60

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/24 12 UTC: 26.3 S / 65.8 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/12/25 00 UTC: 28.6 S / 67.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/12/25 12 UTC: 31.4 S / 68.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/12/26 00 UTC: 34.2 S / 70.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/12/26 12 UTC: 36.7 S / 71.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/12/27 00 UTC: 37.7 S / 73.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS KEPT A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
PATTERN WITH A DVORAK ANALYSIS OF 4.5. OVER THE HOURS, CONVECTION
SLIDES INTO THE EASTERN SECTOR OF THE CYCLONE, BUT THE CONVECTIVE
PATTERN SHOULD SOON SWITCH TO SHEAR PATTERN. THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM
STILL RESISTS WELL TO THE WINDSHEAR, WITH ESTIMATED WINDS IN THE
ORDER OF 70KT.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK FORECAST: THE DISPLACEMENT OF CILIDA
WILL REMAIN ORIENTED SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER/MID LEVEL
TROUGH. THEREAFTER, CILIDA WILL BE RESUMED IN THE WESTERLY
CIRCULATION OF THE MID-LATITUDES DURING THE NIGHT FROM WEDNESDAY TO
THURSDAY.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOW VERY UNFAVORABLE FOR CILIDA. THE
SYSTEM EVOLVES ALONG THE EDGE OF AN ONDULATION OF THE JETSTREAK,
CILIDA UNDERGOES A STRONG VERTICAL WINDSHEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
CORE OF THE SYSTEM STILL RESISTS WELL BUT ITS INTENSITY WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE ON THIS DAY OF DECEMBER 24TH. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT AND
CONTINUING ITS PROGRESSION TOWARDS MORE SOUTHERLY LATITUDES, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD LOSE ITS PURELY TROPICAL FEATURE DURING THE NIGHT OF
CHRISTMAS EVE. AT THE BEGINNIG OF THE DAY ON 26 DECEMBER, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD BEGIN AN EXTRATROPICALISATION PHASE BEFORE FILL UP SLOWLY
DURING THE NEXT DAYS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 240005
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/12/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 024/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 24/12/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA) 970 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.4 S / 64.1 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 220 MN IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/24 AT 12 UTC:
26.3 S / 65.8 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/12/25 AT 00 UTC:
28.6 S / 67.1 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 232100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 23.4S 62.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S 62.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 25.3S 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 23.4S 62.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S 62.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 25.3S 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 27.2S 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 29.1S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 31.4S 69.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 23.9S 63.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CILIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 16 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION THAT IS
OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND AN EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS VERY LIMITED. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE USING A 231710Z MHS 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF AN EYE FEATURE WITH DEEP
PRECIPITATION ON THREE SIDES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KTS IS AN
APPROXIMATE AVERAGE OF KNES AND PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
T4.5-T5.5 (77-102 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS NO LONGER FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND MARGINAL (26-
27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) BEING OFFSET BY GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AS TC 07S CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST, THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY HOSTILE AND TC 07S WILL WEAKEN
RAPIDLY. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN AS IT ENTERS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE, NO LATER THAN TAU 24, WITH COMPLETION EXPECTED BY
TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY GROUPED, LENDING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z,
241500Z AND 242100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 231820 RRA

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 23/5/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 23/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 21 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.3 S / 63.0 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE TROIS DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 16 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.0/5.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 965 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SO: 190 NO: 200
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 170 SO: 150 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 90
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 70 NO: 60

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 24/12/2018 06 UTC: 25.4 S / 64.9 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 24/12/2018 18 UTC: 27.3 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 25/12/2018 06 UTC: 29.8 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 25/12/2018 18 UTC: 32.5 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
60H: 26/12/2018 06 UTC: 35.4 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
72H: 26/12/2018 18 UTC: 37.3 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:



2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=5.0

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 231820 RRA

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/5/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/23 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.3 S / 63.0 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE
DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 16 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 965 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SW: 190 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 170 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 70 NW: 60

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/24 06 UTC: 25.4 S / 64.9 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/12/24 18 UTC: 27.3 S / 66.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/12/25 06 UTC: 29.8 S / 68.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/12/25 18 UTC: 32.5 S / 69.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/12/26 06 UTC: 35.4 S / 71.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/12/26 18 UTC: 37.3 S / 74.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 231820

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 23/5/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 23/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 21 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.3 S / 63.0 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE TROIS DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 16 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.0/5.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 965 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SO: 190 NO: 200
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 170 SO: 150 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 90
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 70 NO: 60

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 24/12/2018 06 UTC: 25.4 S / 64.9 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 24/12/2018 18 UTC: 27.3 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 25/12/2018 06 UTC: 29.8 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 25/12/2018 18 UTC: 32.5 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
60H: 26/12/2018 06 UTC: 35.4 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
72H: 26/12/2018 18 UTC: 37.3 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:



2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=5.0

APRES UNE TENTATIVE DE REFORMER SON OEIL, QUI ETAIT ENCORE BIEN
VISIBLE SUR LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES DE 1411UTC, LA CONFIGURATION
NUAGEUSE DE CILIDA S'EST DE NOUVEAU DEGRADEE AU COURS DES 4 DERNIERES
HEURES. LE SYSTEME SUBIT LES EFFETS DU CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT
DE NORD-OUEST, ESTIME A 20KT. LE SYSTEME RESTE ENCORE EN
CONFIGURATION DE CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE AVEC UNE ANALYSE DVORAK DE
5.0

PAS DE CHANGEMENT NOTABLE DANS LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE : LE
DEPLACEMENT DE CILIDA VA RESTER ORIENTE AU SUD-EST A L'AVANT DU
PROFOND TALWEG D'ALTITUDE QUI CIRCULE AU SUD DE 30AOS. PAR LA SUITE,
CILIDA VA ETRE REPRIS DANS LA CIRCULATION DE SECTEUR OUEST DES
MOYENNES LATITUDES EN COURS DE NUIT DE MERCREDI A JEUDI.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT MAINTENANT BIEN DEFAVORABLES
POUR CILIDA ET SON INTENSITE VA RAPIDEMENT DIMINUER. LE SYSTEME
EVOLUE EN BORDURE D'UNE ONDULATION DU JET SUBTROPICALE ET COMMENCE A
SUBIR UN FORT CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE NORD-OUEST. DANS CET
ENVIRONNEMENT ET CONTINUANT SA PROGRESSION VERS LES LATITUDES PLUS
SUD, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES PUREMENT TROPICAL
LORS DE LA SOIREE DU REVEILLON DE NOEL. A CETTE FIN DE JOURNEE DU 25
DECEMBRE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT COMMENCER UNE PHASE D'EXTRATROPICALISATI
ON AVANT DE SE COMBLER LENTEMENT LES JOURS SUIVANTS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 231820

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/5/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/23 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.3 S / 63.0 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE
DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 16 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 965 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SW: 190 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 170 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 70 NW: 60

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/24 06 UTC: 25.4 S / 64.9 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/12/24 18 UTC: 27.3 S / 66.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/12/25 06 UTC: 29.8 S / 68.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/12/25 18 UTC: 32.5 S / 69.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/12/26 06 UTC: 35.4 S / 71.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/12/26 18 UTC: 37.3 S / 74.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0

AFTER AN ATTEMPT TO REFORM HIS EYE, WHICH WAS STILL CLEARLY VISIBLE
ON THE 1411UTC MICROWAVE IMAGES, THE CILIDA'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS
DETERIORATED AGAIN DURING THE LAST 4 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS AFFECTED BY
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST, ESTIMATED AT 20KT. THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM STILL REMAINS IN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST PATTERN
WITH A DVORAK ANALYSIS OF 5.0

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK FORECAST: THE DISPLACEMENT OF CILIDA
WILL REMAIN ORIENTED SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER/MID LEVEL
TROUGH. THEREAFTER, CILIDA WILL BE RESUMED IN THE WESTERLY
CIRCULATION OF THE MID-LATITUDES DURING THE NIGHT FROM WEDNESDAY TO
THURSDAY.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOW VERY UNFAVORABLE FOR CILIDA AND ITS
INTENSITY WILL QUICKLY DECREASE. THE SYSTEM EVOLVES ALONG THE EDGE OF
AN ONDULATION OF THE JETSTREAK AND BEGINS TO UNDERGO A STRONG
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT AND
CONTINUING ITS PROGRESSION TOWARDS MORE SOUTHERLY LATITUDES, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD LOSE ITS PURELY TROPICAL FEATURE DURING THE CHRISTMAS
EVE EVENING. AT THE END OF THIS DAY ON 25 DECEMBER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
BEGIN AN EXTRATROPICALISATION PHASE BEFORE FILL UP SLOWLY DURING THE
NEXT DAYS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 231808 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 23/12/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 023/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 23/12/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA) 965 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.3 S / 63.0 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 16 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 230 MN IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 231808
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 23/12/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 023/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 23/12/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA) 965 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.3 S / 63.0 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 16 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 230 MN IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/24 AT 06 UTC:
25.4 S / 64.9 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/12/24 AT 18 UTC:
27.3 S / 66.7 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 231500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 22.3S 62.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.3S 62.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 24.4S 64.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 22.3S 62.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.3S 62.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 24.4S 64.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 26.2S 66.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 28.2S 67.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 30.7S 69.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 22.8S 62.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CILIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 299 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY DETERIORATE AS
EVIDENCED BY WARMING CLOUD TOPS ALONG WITH DISPERSION AND ELONGATION
ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK. FEEDER BANDS, HOWEVER, CONTINUE TO BE
WRAPPED TIGHTLY INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE ON A CLOUD-FILLED 20-NM RAGGED
EYE IN THE MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
T4.6-T5.5. POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE WESTERLIES REMAIN STRONG BUT IS
OFFSET BY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. TC 07S WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE COLD MID-LATITUDES ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. DUE TO THE OVERALL UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, TC CILIDA WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY ERODE. BY TAU
36, THE CYCLONE WILL ALSO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND BY TAU
48 WILL BECOME A 45-KNOT STORM-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE
WIND FIELD. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
231200Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND
241500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 231227 RRA

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 22/5/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 23/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.2 S / 62.0 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE DEUX DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 14 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.5/5.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 962 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :43 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SO: 190 NO: 200
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 170 SO: 150 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 80 NO: 80

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 24/12/2018 00 UTC: 24.4 S / 63.9 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 24/12/2018 12 UTC: 26.3 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 25/12/2018 00 UTC: 28.3 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 25/12/2018 12 UTC: 31.3 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 26/12/2018 00 UTC: 34.3 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
72H: 26/12/2018 12 UTC: 36.4 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX=000 , DEPRESSION SE
COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:



2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=4.5 CI=5.5-

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 231227 RRA

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/5/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/23 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.2 S / 62.0 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL
ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 962 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :43 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SW: 190 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 170 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 80

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/24 00 UTC: 24.4 S / 63.9 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/12/24 12 UTC: 26.3 S / 66.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/12/25 00 UTC: 28.3 S / 67.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/12/25 12 UTC: 31.3 S / 69.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/12/26 00 UTC: 34.3 S / 71.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/12/26 12 UTC: 36.4 S / 72.9 E, MAX WIND=000 , FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5 CI=5.5-

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 231213 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 23/12/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 022/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 23/12/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA) 962 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.2 S / 62.0 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 14 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 MN IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/24 AT 00 UTC:
24.4 S / 63.9 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 231227

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 22/5/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 23/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.2 S / 62.0 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE DEUX DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 14 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.5/5.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 962 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :43 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SO: 190 NO: 200
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 170 SO: 150 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 80 NO: 80

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 24/12/2018 00 UTC: 24.4 S / 63.9 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 24/12/2018 12 UTC: 26.3 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 25/12/2018 00 UTC: 28.3 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 25/12/2018 12 UTC: 31.3 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 26/12/2018 00 UTC: 34.3 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
72H: 26/12/2018 12 UTC: 36.4 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX=000 , DEPRESSION SE
COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:



2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=4.5 CI=5.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE S'EST
DEGRADA E. LE SYSTEME COMMENCE A SUBIR LES EFFETS DU CISAILLEMENT
VERTICAL DE VENT DE NORD-OUEST. LA PASSE PARTIELLE DE LA MICRO-ONDE
GCOM DE 0907Z SUGGERE UNE EROSION DANS LA PARTIE NORD DE L'OEIL AVEC
LA CONVECTION PROFONDE REJETEE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD.

LE DEPLACEMENT DE CILIDA VA RESTER ORIENTE AU SUD-EST A L'AVANT D'UN
PROFOND TALWEG D'ALTITUDE DES MOYENNES LATITUDES AVANT D'A TRE CAPTE
PAR LA CIRCULATION DE SECTEUR OUEST DES MOYENNES LATITUDES A PARTIR
DE JEUDI.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT MAINTENANT DEFAVORABLES. LE
SYSTEME EVOLUE EN BORDURE D'UNE ONDULATION DU JET SUBTROPICALE ET VA
SUBIR UN FORT CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE NORD-OUEST. LE CONTENU
ENERGETIQUE DEVIENT EGALEMENT INSUFFISANT. PAR CONSEQUENT, LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES PUREMENT TROPICAL DES DEMAIN. A
PARTIR DE MERCREDI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT COMMENCER UNE PHASE
D'EXTRATROPICALISTION AVANT DE SE COMBLER LENTEMENT LES JOURS
SUIVANTS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 231227

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/5/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/23 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.2 S / 62.0 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL
ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 962 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :43 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SW: 190 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 170 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 80

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/24 00 UTC: 24.4 S / 63.9 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/12/24 12 UTC: 26.3 S / 66.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/12/25 00 UTC: 28.3 S / 67.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/12/25 12 UTC: 31.3 S / 69.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/12/26 00 UTC: 34.3 S / 71.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/12/26 12 UTC: 36.4 S / 72.9 E, MAX WIND=000 , FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5 CI=5.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED. CILIDA
BEGINS TO EXPERIENCE A NORTHWESTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. PARTIAL 0907Z
GCOM MICROWAVE SWATH SUGGESTS AN ERODED EYE OVER THE NORTHERN PART
WITH DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

CILIDA IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD A DEEP
UPPER/MID LEVEL TROUGH. FROM THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE CAPTURED
BY THE WESTERN MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION.

ENVIRONNEMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOW UNFAVORABLE. THE SYSTEM EVOLVES AT
THE EDGE OF AN ONDULATION OF THE JETSTREAK AND SHOULD EXPERIENCE A
STRONG NORTHWESTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. MOREVOR, OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
IS NOW INSUFFICIENT. SO, THE SYSTEM SHOULD LOSE ITS PURELY TROPICAL
FEATURE FROM TOMORROW EVENING. FROM WEDNESDAY, CILIDA SHOULD BEGIN AN
EXTRATROPICALISATION PHASE BEFORE FILL UP SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT
DAYS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 231213
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 23/12/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 022/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 23/12/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA) 962 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.2 S / 62.0 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 14 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 MN IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/24 AT 00 UTC:
24.4 S / 63.9 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/12/24 AT 12 UTC:
26.3 S / 66.1 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 230900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 21.1S 61.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 61.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 23.1S 62.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 21.1S 61.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 61.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 23.1S 62.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 25.0S 64.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 27.1S 66.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 30.0S 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 21.6S 61.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CILIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 216 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE RAGGED AND CONTINUED TO
GRADUALLY DETERIORATE AS EVIDENCED BY UNRAVELING FEEDER BANDS,
WARMING CLOUD TOPS, AND ELONGATION ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE ON A 20-NM RAGGED EYE
IN THE MSI THAT CONTINUED TO BE MORE CLOUD-FILLED. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.7-T5.5. POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE
WESTERLIES REMAIN STRONG BUT IS OFFSET BY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 07S WILL CONTINUE TO
ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE COLD MID-LATITUDES ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. BY TAU
36, THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND BY TAU 48
WILL BECOME A STORM-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD.
DUE TO THE OVERALL UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, TC CILIDA WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BY TAU 48, WILL BE REDUCED TO 45 KNOTS.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z,
240300Z AND 240900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 230632 RRA

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 21/5/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 23/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.0 S / 61.0 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE UN DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 16 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 962 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :43 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SO: 190 NO: 200
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 170 SO: 150 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 80 NO: 80

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 3000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 23/12/2018 18 UTC: 22.9 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 24/12/2018 06 UTC: 24.8 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 24/12/2018 18 UTC: 26.8 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 25/12/2018 06 UTC: 28.8 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 25/12/2018 18 UTC: 31.5 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 26/12/2018 06 UTC: 34.1 S / 72.3 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 27/12/2018 06 UTC: 37.1 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE


2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=5.5- CI=5.5-

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 230632 RRA

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/5/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/23 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.0 S / 61.0 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL
ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 16 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 962 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :43 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SW: 190 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 170 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 80

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 3000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/23 18 UTC: 22.9 S / 62.4 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/12/24 06 UTC: 24.8 S / 64.4 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/12/24 18 UTC: 26.8 S / 66.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/12/25 06 UTC: 28.8 S / 67.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/12/25 18 UTC: 31.5 S / 69.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/12/26 06 UTC: 34.1 S / 72.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/12/27 06 UTC: 37.1 S / 77.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5- CI=5.5-

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 230632

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 21/5/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 23/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.0 S / 61.0 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE UN DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 16 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 962 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :43 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SO: 190 NO: 200
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 170 SO: 150 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 80 NO: 80

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 3000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 23/12/2018 18 UTC: 22.9 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 24/12/2018 06 UTC: 24.8 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 24/12/2018 18 UTC: 26.8 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 25/12/2018 06 UTC: 28.8 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 25/12/2018 18 UTC: 31.5 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 26/12/2018 06 UTC: 34.1 S / 72.3 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 27/12/2018 06 UTC: 37.1 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE


2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=5.5- CI=5.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, CILIDA A CONNU UNE PERIODE DE
RE-INTENSIFICATION. LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE S'EST AMELIORA E AVEC
UN OEIL MIEUX DEFINI ET PLUS CHAUD. L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE GMI 85GHZ DE
0206Z MONTRE UNE STRUCTURE INTERNE ENCORE BIEN SOLIDE. TOUTEFOIS, LES
IMAGES 37GHZ GMI ET WINDSAT (0141Z) MONTRENT UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LE
QUADANT NORD DE L'ANNEAU DE CONVECTION SOUS L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT
VERTICAL DE SECTEUR NORD QUI VA S'INTENSIFIER.

LE DEPLACEMENT DE CILIDA RESTE ORIENTE AU SUD-EST. CELUI-CI RESTE
PILOTE PAR LA FACE SUD-OUEST D'UNE DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE. LE
DECALAGE DE CETTE CELLULE DE HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS VERS L'EST ET
L'ARRIVEE D'UN THALWEG DE MOYENNE/HAUTE TROPOSPHERE PAR L'OUEST,
MANTIENNENT UNE ORIENTATION SUD-EST POUR LES PROCHAINES 72H. AVEC UNE
DISPERSION DES MODELES RESTANT RELATIVEMENT FAIBLE, UNE BONNE
CONFIANCE RESTE DONNE A LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE.

LE SYSTEME S'ELOIGNE DE L'AXE DE LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE AVEC UN
CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-NORD-OUEST QUI EST PREVU DEVENIR PROGRESSIVEMENT
FORT AU COURS DE CETTE JOURNEE. CE CISAILLEMENT A L'AVANT DU THALWEG
D'ALTITUDE ET UN ENVIRONNEMENT PLUS SEC EN MOYENNE TROPO DEVRAIT
POURSUIVRE AFFAIBLIR SIGNIFICATIVEMENT LE SYSTEME LA NUIT PROCHAINE.
DANS LA NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI, DANS UN CONTEXTE DE PLUS EN PLUS
BAROCLINE ET SUR DES SST N'AYANT PLUS DE POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE, LE
SYSTEME POURRAIT ARBORER DES CARACTERISTIQUES MIXTES DE LA PHASE
POST-TROPICALE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 230632

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/5/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/23 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.0 S / 61.0 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL
ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 16 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 962 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :43 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SW: 190 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 170 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 80

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 3000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/23 18 UTC: 22.9 S / 62.4 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/12/24 06 UTC: 24.8 S / 64.4 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/12/24 18 UTC: 26.8 S / 66.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/12/25 06 UTC: 28.8 S / 67.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/12/25 18 UTC: 31.5 S / 69.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/12/26 06 UTC: 34.1 S / 72.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/12/27 06 UTC: 37.1 S / 77.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5- CI=5.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CILIDA HAS STRENGTHENED AGAIN. CLOUD PATTERN
HAS IMPROVED WITH AN EYE BETTER DEFINED AND WARMER. 0206Z 85GHZ GMI
MICROWAVE SHOWS A SOLID INTERNAL STRUCTURE. BUT, 37GHZ GMI AND
WINDSAT (0141Z) SHOW A WEAKNESS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE RING OF
CONVECTION DUE TO THE NORTHERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.

CILIDA CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD STEERED BY THE SOUTH-WESTERN
EDGE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. THE GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT OF THESE
HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS AND THE ARRIVAL OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
WEST, MAINTAIN A GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARDS MOTION FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
AS THE DISPERSION OF THE MODELS REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW, A GOOD
CONFIDENCE IS GIVEN TO THE TRACK FORECAST.

THE SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING AWAY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEEP
LAYERS SHEAR HAS STARTED TO INCREASE AND TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTH-WEST. A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE OF WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF AN
UPPER TROUGH AND A DRIER ENVIRONMENT ON AVERAGE TROPO SHOULD CONTINUE
THE WEAKENING TREND OF THE SYSTEM SPECIALLY FROM SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY NIGHT, WITHIN AN INCREASING BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT AND OVER
VERY LOW HEAT CONTENT WATERS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ACQUIRE MIXED
CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 230618 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 23/12/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 021/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 23/12/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA) 962 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.0 S / 61.0 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 16 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 MN IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/23 AT 18 UTC:
22.9 S / 62.4 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 230618
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 23/12/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 021/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 23/12/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA) 962 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.0 S / 61.0 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 16 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 MN IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/23 AT 18 UTC:
22.9 S / 62.4 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/12/24 AT 06 UTC:
24.8 S / 64.4 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 230300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 19.7S 59.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 59.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 21.6S 61.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 19.7S 59.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 59.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 21.6S 61.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 23.6S 63.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 25.4S 65.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 27.2S 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 32.3S 69.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 60.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CILIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 149 NM
EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN SIDE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE USING A 222314Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS
A FAINT EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KTS IS CONSISTENT
WITH PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.0-T6.0 (90-115
KTS) AND MATCHES A 222148Z CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 101 KTS. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND MARGINAL (26-27
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST). FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST WILL STEER TC 07S
SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. ONCE THE CYCLONE ENTERS THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES AROUND TAU 36, EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL
BEGIN, WITH COMPLETION EXPECTED PRIOR TO TAU 72. THIS ALSO MARKS A
PERIOD WHERE VWS INCREASES AND SST DECREASES, ACCELERATING THE RATE
OF WEAKENING THAT HAS BEEN ON-GOING FOR THE LAST 24-30 HOURS. THE
BULK OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED AROUND THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 230105 RRA

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 20/5/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 23/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.8 S / 60.2 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.0/5.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 960 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 260 SO: 170 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SO: 120 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 90 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 60

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 23/12/2018 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 24/12/2018 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 63.4 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 24/12/2018 12 UTC: 25.6 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 25/12/2018 00 UTC: 27.2 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 25/12/2018 12 UTC: 29.5 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 26/12/2018 00 UTC: 32.5 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 27/12/2018 00 UTC: 36.3 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 28/12/2018 00 UTC: 37.2 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=5.0- CI=5.5-

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 230105 RRA

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/5/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/23 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.8 S / 60.2 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL TWO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 260 SW: 170 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/23 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 61.6 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/12/24 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 63.4 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/12/24 12 UTC: 25.6 S / 65.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/12/25 00 UTC: 27.2 S / 66.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/12/25 12 UTC: 29.5 S / 68.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/12/26 00 UTC: 32.5 S / 70.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/12/27 00 UTC: 36.3 S / 75.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/12/28 00 UTC: 37.2 S / 82.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0- CI=5.5-

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 230105

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 20/5/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 23/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.8 S / 60.2 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.0/5.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 960 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 260 SO: 170 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SO: 120 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 90 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 60

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 23/12/2018 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 24/12/2018 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 63.4 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 24/12/2018 12 UTC: 25.6 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 25/12/2018 00 UTC: 27.2 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 25/12/2018 12 UTC: 29.5 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 26/12/2018 00 UTC: 32.5 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 27/12/2018 00 UTC: 36.3 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 28/12/2018 00 UTC: 37.2 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=5.0- CI=5.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE CILIDA
N'A PAS ETE STABLE OSCILLANT ENTRE CENTRE NOYE SOUS LA MASSE ET OEIL
MAL DEFINI. L'AMSR2 DE 2057Z MONTRE QUE LE CYCLE DE L'OEIL S'EST
TERMINE AVEC UN OEIL QUI S'EST SENSIBLEMENT ELARGI.
VRAISEMBLABLEMENT, L'EXTENSION DU CHAMP DE VENT S'EST CANTONNEE AUX
EXTENSIONS DE L'OURAGAN ET DE LA TEMPETE ET A PEU AFFECTE LES
EXTENSIONS EXTERNES (COUP DE VENT ET GRAND FRAIS). A DEFAUT D'INDICE
DE RE-INTENSIFICATION POUR L'INSTANT, L'INTENSITE EST PRESUMEE
STABILISEE AU VUE DE LA STRUCTURE ENCORE SOLIDE AFFICHEE SUR LA 89
GHZ.

LE DEPLACEMENT DE CILIDA RESTE IRREGULIER EN TERME DE CAP MAIS EN
MOYENNE SUR LES DERNIERES 6H, ON RESTE SUR UN CAP AU SUD-EST QUI
PERDURE DEPUIS LE DEBUT DE NUIT. CELUI-CI RESTE PILOTE PAR LA FACE
SUD-OUEST D'UNE DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE. LE DECALAGE DE CETTE
CELLULE DE HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS VERS L'EST ET L'ARRIVEE D'UN THALWEG
DE MOYENNE/HAUTE TROPOSPHERE PAR L'OUEST, MANTIENNENT UNE ORIENTATION
SUD-EST POUR LES PROCHAINES 72H. AVEC UNE DISPERSION DES MODELES
RESTANT RELATIVEMENT FAIBLE, UNE BONNE CONFIANCE RESTE DONNE A LA
PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE.

LE SYSTEME S'ELOIGNE DE L'AXE DE LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE AVEC UN
CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-NORD-OUEST QUI COMMENCE A MONTER (15 KT - CIMSS
21Z). UNE HAUSSE SIGNIFICATIVE DU CISAILLEMENT A L'AVANT DU THALWEG
D'ALTITUDE ET UN ENVIRONNEMENT PLUS SEC EN MOYENNE TROPO DEVRAIT
POURSUIVRE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME AUJOURD'HUI ET PLUS
FRANCHEMENT A PARTIR DE LA NUIT PROCHAINE. TOUTEFOIS, ET MEME SI CELA
N'EST PAS MONTRE DANS LA PREVISION OFFICIELLE, IL EST POSSIBLE QUE
CILIDA CONNAISSE UNE COURTE PHASE DE RE-INTENSIFICATION POST-CYCLE
AUJOURD'HUI.

DANS LA NUIT DE LUNDI A MARDI, DANS UN CONTEXTE DE PLUS EN PLUS
BAROCLINE ET SUR DES SST N'AYANT PLUS DE POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE, LE
SYSTEME POURRAIT ARBORER DES CARACTERISTIQUES MIXTES DE LA PHASE
POST-TROPICALE.

LE SYSTEME EST PASSE EN MILIEU DE NUIT A UN PEU MOINS DE 240 KM AU
NORD-EST DE MAURICE. PASSAGE DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES AU PLUS PRES
DE RODRIGUES (A BONNE DISTANCE).=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 230105

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/5/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/23 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.8 S / 60.2 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL TWO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 260 SW: 170 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/23 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 61.6 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/12/24 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 63.4 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/12/24 12 UTC: 25.6 S / 65.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/12/25 00 UTC: 27.2 S / 66.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/12/25 12 UTC: 29.5 S / 68.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/12/26 00 UTC: 32.5 S / 70.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/12/27 00 UTC: 36.3 S / 75.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/12/28 00 UTC: 37.2 S / 82.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0- CI=5.5-

DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN OF CILIDA HAS OSCILLATED
BETWEEN EMBEDDED CENTER AND AN ILL DEFINED EYE PATTERN. 89 GHZ AMSR2
IMAGERY AT 2057Z SHOW THAT THE ERC IS NOW COMPLETED WITH A LARGER
EYE.
IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE EXPANSION OF THE WIND FIELDS HAS ONLY
AFFECTED THE INNER CORE WINDS RADII (64 KT AND 48 KT WINDS RADII)
WITH LITTLE OR NO EXPANSION OF THE OUTER WINDS RADII (34 KT AND 28
KT). WITHOUT ANY CLEAR INDICATION AT THIS TIME OF RE-INTENSIFICATION,
THE INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED AT 85 KT AND IT IS SUPPORT BY THE SOMEWHAT
SOLID PRESENTATION SEEN ON THE 89GHZ IMAGERY.

CILIDA'S HEADING IS NOT VERY REGULAR BUT A 6 HOURS SMOOTH MOTION IS
NOW DUE SOUTH-EASTWARDS SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING. THE FORWARD MOTION
OF CILIDA REMAINS STEERED BY THE SOUTH-WESTERN EDGE OF A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE. THE GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT OF THESE HIGH
GEOPOTENTIALS AND THE ARRIVAL OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST,
MAINTAIN A GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARDS MOTION FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AS
THE DISPERSION OF THE MODELS REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW, A GOOD
CONFIDENCE IS GIVEN TO THE TRACK FORECAST.

THE SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING AWAY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE DEEP
LAYERS SHEAR HAS STARTED TO INCREASE AND TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTH-WEST
(15 KT ACCORDING CIMSS DATA AT 21Z). A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE OF WIND
SHEAR AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND A DRIER ENVIRONMENT ON AVERAGE
TROPO SHOULD CONTINUE THE WEAKENING TREND OF THE SYSTEM SPECIALLY
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT. EVEN IF IT IS NOT SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST,
SOME TEMPORARILY POST-ERC RE-STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE TODAY

MONDAY NIGHT, WITHIN AN INCREASING BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT AND OVER
VERY LOW HEAT CONTENT WATERS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ACQUIRE MIXED
CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM.

THE CLOSEST POINT APPROACH (CPA) OF MAURITIUS OCCURRED AROUND 20Z-21Z
AT A LITTLE LESS THAN 240 KM TO THE NORTH-EAST. CPA OF RODRIGUES
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT FAR ENOUGH FROM THE COASTS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 230022 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 23/12/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 020/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 23/12/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA) 960 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.8 S / 60.2 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 MN IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 135 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 230022
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 23/12/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 020/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 23/12/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA) 960 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.8 S / 60.2 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 MN IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 135 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/23 AT 12 UTC:
21.8 S / 61.6 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/12/24 AT 00 UTC:
23.8 S / 63.4 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
EXPANSION OF HURRICANE AND STORM FORCE WINDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 222100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 18.8S 59.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S 59.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 20.7S 60.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 18.8S 59.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S 59.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 20.7S 60.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 22.8S 62.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 24.7S 64.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 26.7S 65.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 31.5S 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 59.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CILIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 142 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 07S HAS LOST ITS EYE
IN ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT STILL HAS
SIGNIFICANT SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A 221732Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH REVEALS THE
EYEWALL STILL EXISTS DESPITE THE EYE BEING OBSCURED IN THE EIR LOOP.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 221911 RRA

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/5/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 22/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.9 S / 59.6 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET CINQUANTE NEUF DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.0/5.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 958 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :22 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 280 SO: 190 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 160 SE: 160 SO: 130 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SO: 60 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 50

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 23/12/2018 06 UTC: 21.0 S / 60.8 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 23/12/2018 18 UTC: 23.1 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 24/12/2018 06 UTC: 25.0 S / 64.2 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 24/12/2018 18 UTC: 26.9 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 25/12/2018 06 UTC: 29.4 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 25/12/2018 18 UTC: 32.3 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 26/12/2018 18 UTC: 36.4 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 27/12/2018 18 UTC: 37.2 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=5.0.CI=5.5

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 221911 RRA

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/5/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/22 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.9 S / 59.6 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL
SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 958 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :22 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 280 SW: 190 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 160 SE: 160 SW: 130 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/23 06 UTC: 21.0 S / 60.8 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/12/23 18 UTC: 23.1 S / 62.4 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/12/24 06 UTC: 25.0 S / 64.2 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/12/24 18 UTC: 26.9 S / 65.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/12/25 06 UTC: 29.4 S / 67.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/12/25 18 UTC: 32.3 S / 68.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/12/26 18 UTC: 36.4 S / 72.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/12/27 18 UTC: 37.2 S / 79.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0.CI=5.5

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 221911

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/5/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 22/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.9 S / 59.6 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET CINQUANTE NEUF DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.0/5.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 958 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :22 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 280 SO: 190 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 160 SE: 160 SO: 130 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SO: 60 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 50

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 23/12/2018 06 UTC: 21.0 S / 60.8 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 23/12/2018 18 UTC: 23.1 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 24/12/2018 06 UTC: 25.0 S / 64.2 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 24/12/2018 18 UTC: 26.9 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 25/12/2018 06 UTC: 29.4 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 25/12/2018 18 UTC: 32.3 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 26/12/2018 18 UTC: 36.4 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 27/12/2018 18 UTC: 37.2 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=5.0;CI=5.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE CILIDA
S'EST BIEN DEGRADEE AVEC UN OEIL QUI A QUASIMENT DISPARU SUR
L'IMAGERIE IR. L'IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDES DE LA SOIREE CONFIRME LE
DEROULEMENT D'UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DE L'OEIL. UNE BANDE DE
CONVECTION PROFONDE ENCERCLE MAINTENANT COMPLETEMENT LE MUR INTERNE
QUI EST BIEN ERODE DANS SON SECTEUR NORD-OUEST. L'INTENSITE ESTIMEE A
85 KT TIENT COMPTE DE CETTE PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT PROPRE A L'ERC ET
SE SITUE DANS L'ESTIMATION BASSE DES INTENSITES DISPONIBLES A 18Z.
AVEC CE CYCLE EN COURS, IL Y A UN RISQUE QUE LE CHAMPS DE VENT SE
DILATE QUELQUE PEU AU COURS DES PROCHAINES HEURES AVEC UN IMPACT
POSSIBLE SUR LES CONDITIONS VENTEUSES RESSENTIES A MAURICE ET
RODRIGUES.

CILIDA S'EST DEPLACE SUR LES DERNIERES HEURES SUR UN CAP PLUS SUD-EST
EN ACCELERANT. LE DEPLACEMENT DE CILIDA RESTE PILOTE PAR LA FACE
SUD-OUEST D'UNE DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE. LE DECALAGE DE CETTE
CELLULE DE HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS VERS L'EST ET L'ARRIVEE D'UN THALWEG
DE MOYENNE/HAUTE TROPOSPHERE PAR L'OUEST, MANTIENNENT UNE ORIENTATION
SUD-EST POUR LA NUIT PROCHAINE. AVEC UNE DISPERSION DES MODELES
RESTANT RELATIVEMENT FAIBLE, UNE BONNE CONFIANCE RESTE DONNE A LA
PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE. CILIDA DEVRAIT ACCELERER SA TRAJECTOIRE EN
COURS DE NUIT PROCHAINE LORS DE SON PASSAGE AU PLUS PRES ENTRE
MAURICE ET RODRIGUES, AVANT DE PLONGER VERS LES LATITUDES PLUS SUD.

LE SYSTEME SE TROUVE ENCORE SOUS L'AXE DE LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE, SOUS
UN CISAILLEMENT FAIBLE A MODERE DE SECTEUR NORD A 10/15 KT (CIMSS
15Z). UNE HAUSSE SIGNIFICATIVE DU CISAILLEMENT A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG
D'ALTITUDE ET UN ENVIRONNEMENT PLUS SEC EN MOYENNE TROPO DEVRAIT
POURSUIVRE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME EN COURS DE NUIT PROCHAINE.

TOUTEFOIS, MEME SI CELA N'EST PAS MONTRE DANS LA PREVISION
OFFICIELLE, IL EST POSSIBLE QUE CILIDA CONNAISSE UNE COURTE PHASE DE
RE-INTENSIFICATION EN FIN DE NUIT OU DEMAIN MATIN EN PHASE FINALE DU
CYCLE.

L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT PROGRESSIF VA SE POURSUIVRE ET DES MARDI, SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DU TALWEG D'ALTITUDE QUI FINIT PAR LE RATTRAPER, LE
SYSTEME POURRAIT ENTAMER UNE PHASE D'EXTRATROPICALISATION.

CE SYSTEME RESTE UN CYCLONE DANGEREUX MAIS AU VUE DE LA FAIBLE
INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE, MAURICE ET RODRIGUES ECHAPPENT AUX
PIRES CONDITIONS, NOTAMMENT EN TERMES DE VENT. PASSAGE DANS LES
PROCHAINES HEURES AU PLUS PRES DE MAURICE ET PLUS TARD DEMAIN MATIN A
PROXIMITE DE RODRIGUES (A BONNE DISTANCE).=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 221911

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/5/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/22 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.9 S / 59.6 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL
SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 958 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :22 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 280 SW: 190 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 160 SE: 160 SW: 130 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/23 06 UTC: 21.0 S / 60.8 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/12/23 18 UTC: 23.1 S / 62.4 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/12/24 06 UTC: 25.0 S / 64.2 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/12/24 18 UTC: 26.9 S / 65.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/12/25 06 UTC: 29.4 S / 67.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/12/25 18 UTC: 32.3 S / 68.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/12/26 18 UTC: 36.4 S / 72.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/12/27 18 UTC: 37.2 S / 79.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0;CI=5.5

DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN OF CILIDA HAS DETERIORATED
WITH THE EYE BARELY VISIBLE ON IR IMAGERY. MW IMAGERY SHOW THAT AN
ERC IS UNDERWAY. A STRONG CONVECTIVE BAND IS NOW SURROUNDING THE
INNER EYEWALL THAT IS ERODED OVER THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT. THE
FINAL INTENSITY THAT IS SET AT 85 KT TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THIS
WEAKENING PHASIS OF AN ERC AND IS ON THE LOW SIDE OF ALL THE
AVAILABLE ESTIMATES AT 18Z.

WITH THIS ERC UNDERWAY, SOME SLIGHT EXPANSION OF THE WIND FIELDS MAY
OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS WITH SOME INCIDENCE POSSIBLE OF THE WINDS
CONDITIONS AT MAURICE AND RODRIGUES.

CILIDA HAS MOVED ON A MORE SOUTH-EASTWARDS TRACK WITHIN THE LAST 6
HOURS AND ACCELERATING. THE DISPLACEMENT OF CILIDA REMAINS STEERED BY
THE SOUTH-WESTERN EDGE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. THE GRADUAL
EASTWARD SHIFT OF THESE HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS AND THE ARRIVAL OF A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST, MAINTAIN A SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION FOR
THE NIGHT. AS THE DISPERSION OF THE MODELS REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW, A
GOOD CONFIDENCE IS GIVEN TO THE TRACK FORECAST. CILIDA IS EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE ITS TRACK DURING THE NIGHT FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY AS IT
PASSES AS CLOSE AS POSSIBLE BETWEEN MAURITIUS AND RODRIGUES, BEFORE
MOVING TOWARDS MORE SOUTHERN LATITUDES.

THE SYSTEM IS STILL CURRENTLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, WITH LOW
TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDSHEAR (10/15 KT ACCORDING CIMSS DATA). A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE OF WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND A
DRIER ENVIRONMENT ON AVERAGE TROPO SHOULD CONTINUE THE WEAKENING
TREND OF THE SYSTEM.

HOWEVER, EVEN IF IT IS NOT SHOWN IN THEOFFICIAL FORECAST, SOME
TEMPORARILY RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE FINAL STAGE OF THE
ERC, LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING.

THE GRADUAL WEAKENING WILL CONTINUE AND ON TUESDAY, UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH THAT SHOULD EVENTUALLY CATCH UP, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN AN EXTRATROPICALISATION PHASE.


CILIDA REMAINS A DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE BUT BECAUSE OF THE GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK, MAURITIUS AND RODRIGUES WILL AVOID THE MOST
DISASTROUS IMPACTS, NOTABLY IN TERMS OF WINDS. THE CLOSEST PASSAGE IS
STILL FORECAST WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS FOR MAURITIUS AND LATER TOMORROW
MORNING FOR RODRIGUES (WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER)=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 221828 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 22/12/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 22/12/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA) 958 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.9 S / 59.6 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 MN IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 85 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 65
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 135 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/23 AT 06 UTC:
21.0 S / 60.8 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/12/23 AT 18 UTC:
23.1 S / 62.4 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 221828
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 22/12/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 22/12/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA) 958 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.9 S / 59.6 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 MN IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 85 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 65
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 135 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/23 AT 06 UTC:
21.0 S / 60.8 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/12/23 AT 18 UTC:
23.1 S / 62.4 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 18.0S 58.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 58.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 20.0S 60.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.0S 61.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 24.2S 63.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 26.3S 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 31.4S 68.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 59.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CILIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AS EVIDENCED BY
REDUCED DEEP CONVECTION WITH ELONGATION AND DISPERSION ALONG THE
SOUTHERN FLANK. HOWEVER, THE CENTRAL CONVECTION REMAINS MOSTLY
INTACT, INCLUDING A DEFINED 5-NM PINHOLE EYE THAT HAS NOW BECOME
OCCLUDED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE MSI EYE THAT STACKED WELL WITH A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE
IN THE 221051Z SSMIS PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN THE CONSTRAINED DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T6.0/115KTS FROM PGTW AND
KNES TO REFLECT THE WEAKER CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASING (20-25 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM
(28-26 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). TC 07S WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VWS AS TC 07S TRACKS
DEEPER INTO THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES. SSTS WILL ALSO DECREASE, ALONG
WITH COLD AIR ENTRAINMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. TC
CILIDA WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48 AND WILL BECOME
A STORM-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD BY TAU 72.
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z,
230900Z AND 231500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 221333 RRA
...............CORRECTIF..............

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/5/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 22/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 21 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.9 S / 58.8 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET CINQUANTE HUIT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.5/5.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 949 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 190 SO: 140 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 50

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 23/12/2018 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 59.9 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 23/12/2018 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 61.3 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 24/12/2018 00 UTC: 24.0 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 24/12/2018 12 UTC: 26.0 S / 65.2 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 25/12/2018 00 UTC: 28.5 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 25/12/2018 12 UTC: 31.6 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 26/12/2018 12 UTC: 36.8 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
120H: 27/12/2018 12 UTC: 37.7 S / 79.8 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=5.5.CI=5.5+

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 221333 RRA
...............CORRECTIVE..............

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/5/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/22 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.9 S / 58.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL
EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 949 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 190 SW: 140 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/23 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 59.9 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/12/23 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 61.3 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/12/24 00 UTC: 24.0 S / 63.2 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/12/24 12 UTC: 26.0 S / 65.2 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/12/25 00 UTC: 28.5 S / 67.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/12/25 12 UTC: 31.6 S / 68.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/12/26 12 UTC: 36.8 S / 72.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/12/27 12 UTC: 37.7 S / 79.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5.CI=5.5+

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 221333 CCA
***************CORRECTIF**************

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/5/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 22/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 21 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.9 S / 58.8 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET CINQUANTE HUIT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.5/5.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 949 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 190 SO: 140 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 50

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 23/12/2018 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 59.9 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 23/12/2018 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 61.3 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 24/12/2018 00 UTC: 24.0 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 24/12/2018 12 UTC: 26.0 S / 65.2 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 25/12/2018 00 UTC: 28.5 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 25/12/2018 12 UTC: 31.6 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 26/12/2018 12 UTC: 36.8 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
120H: 27/12/2018 12 UTC: 37.7 S / 79.8 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=5.5;CI=5.5+

AU COURS DES 6 HEURES PASSEES, CILIDA A CONTINUE DE MONTRER DES
FAIBLESSES AVEC UN OEIL MOINS BIEN DEFINI. LES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES
AMSR2 DE 1003UTC SEMBLENT MONTRER UN DEBUT DE CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT
DU MUR DE L'OEIL. CELA IMPLIQUE UN FUTUR AFFAIBLISSEMENT DES VENTS
MAXIMAUX ACCOMPAGNE D'UNE EXTENSION DE LA ZONE DES VENTS FORTS. CE
CHANGEMENT DANS LA STRUCTURE DU CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE CILIDA
DEVRAIT INDUIRE DES VENTS PLUS SOUTENUS A DISTANCE DU CENTRE ET PAR
CONSEQUENT, LES ILES MAURICE ET RODRIGUES POURRAIENT ETRE CONCERNEES
PAR DES VENTS UN PEU PLUS FORT.

LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE EVOLUE PEU : LE DEPLACEMENT DE CILIDA
RESTE PILOTE PAR LA FACE OUEST D'UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. LE
DECALAGE DE CETTE CELLULE DE HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS VERS L'EST ET
L'ARRIVEE D'UN THALWEG DE MOYENNE/HAUTE TROPOSPHERE PAR L'OUEST,
MANTIENNENT UNE ORIENTATION SUD-EST POUR LA NUIT PROCHAINE. AVEC UNE
DISPERSION DES MODELES RESTANT RELATIVEMENT FAIBLE, UNE BONNE
CONFIANCE EST DONNE A LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE. CILIDA DEVRAIT
ACCELERER SA TRAJECTOIRE EN COURS DE NUIT PROCHAINE LORS DE SON
PASSAGE AU PLUS PRES ENTRE MAURICE ET RODRIGUES, AVANT DE PLONGER
VERS LES LATITUDES PLUS SUD.

LE SYSTEME SE TROUVE ENCORE SOUS L'AXE DE LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE, SOUS
UN CISAILLEMENT FAIBLE A MODERE. UNE HAUSSE SIGNIFICATIVE DU
CISAILLEMENT A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE ET UN ENVIRONNEMENT
PLUS SEC EN MOYENNE TROPO DEVRAIT INITIER L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU
SYSTEME EN COURS DE NUIT PROCHAINE. L'INTENSITE DE CILIDA DEVRAIT
ALORS BAISSER JUSQU'AU SEUIL DE CYCLONE TROPICAL EN MATINEE DE
DIMANCHE AU MOMENT DE SON ACCELERATION. L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT PROGRESSIF
VA SE POURSUIVRE ET DES MARDI, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DU TALWEG D'ALTITUDE
QUI FINIT PAR LE RATTRAPER, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT ENTAMER UNE PHASE
D'EXTRATROPICALISATION.

CE SYSTEME EST TRES DANGEREUX. IL PRESENTE UNE MENACE POTENTIELLE
POUR L'ARCHIPEL DES MASCAREIGNES, PRINCIPALEMENT ILES MAURICE ET
RODRIGUES. UNE HOULE CYCLONIQUE CONCERNE CES ILES ET VA FORCIR AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES HEURES. LE REUNION EST AUSSI CONCERNEE PAR CETTE
HOULE MAIS DANS UNE MOINDRE MESURE. AU VU DE LA FAIBLE INCERTITUDE
SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE, LES DEUX ILES DEVRAIENT ECHAPPER AUX PIRES
CONDITIONS, NOTAMMENT EN TERMES DE VENT. LE PASSAGE AU PLUS PRES EST
TOUJOURS ENVISAGE EN FIN DE NUIT DE SAMEDI A DIMANCHE. LES HABITANTS
DE CES ILES SONT INVITES A SUIVRE ATTENTIVEMENT L'EVOLUTION DE LA
SITUATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 221333 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/5/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/22 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.9 S / 58.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL
EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 949 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 190 SW: 140 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/23 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 59.9 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/12/23 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 61.3 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/12/24 00 UTC: 24.0 S / 63.2 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/12/24 12 UTC: 26.0 S / 65.2 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/12/25 00 UTC: 28.5 S / 67.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/12/25 12 UTC: 31.6 S / 68.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/12/26 12 UTC: 36.8 S / 72.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/12/27 12 UTC: 37.7 S / 79.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5;CI=5.5+

DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS, CILIDA CONTINUED TO SHOW WEAKNESSES WITH A
LESS WELL DEFINED EYE. THE 1003UTC AMSR2 MICROWAVE DATA SEEM TO SHOW
A BEGINNING OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THIS IMPLIES A FUTURE
WEAKENING OF THE MAXIMUM WINDS ACCOMPANIED BY AN EXTENSION OF THE
STRONG WIND AREA. THIS CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE CILIDA SHOULD INDUCE MORE SUSTAINED WINDS AT A DISTANCE FROM
THE CENTRE AND CONSEQUENTLY, THE MAURITIUS AND RODRIGUES ISLANDS
COULD BE AFFECTED BY SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, NO MUCH CHANGE: THE DISPLACEMENT OF CILIDA REMAINS
STEERED BY THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THE GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT OF THESE SUBTROPICAL HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS
AND THE ARRIVAL OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST, MAINTAIN A
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION FOR THE NEXT NIGHT. AS THE DISPERSION OF
THE MODELS REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW, A GOOD CONFIDENCE IS GIVEN TO THE
TRACK FORECAST. CILIDA IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE ITS TRACK DURING THE
NIGHT FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY AS IT PASSES AS CLOSE AS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN MAURITIUS AND RODRIGUES, BEFORE MOVING TOWARDS MORE SOUTHERN
LATITUDES.

THE SYSTEM IS STILL CURRENTLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, WITH LOW
TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR. A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE OF WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH AND A DRIER ENVIRONMENT ON AVERAGE TROPO SHOULD
INITIATE THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. CICILA'S INTENSITY IS EXPECTED
TO DECREASE TO THE THRESHOLD OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SUNDAY MORNING
AT THE TIME OF ITS ACCELERATION. THE GRADUAL WEAKENING WILL CONTINUE
AND ON TUESDAY, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH THAT SHOULD
EVENTUALLY CATCH UP, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN AN EXTRATROPICALISATION
PHASE.

CILIDA IS VERY DANGEROUS. IT IS POSING A POTENTIAL THREAT TO THE
MASCARENES ISLANDS ESPECIALLY MAURITIUS AND RODRIGUES ISLANDS. A
CYCLONIC SWELL IS AFFECTING THESE ISLANDS AND WILL INCREASE IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. REUNION ISLAND IS ALSO CONCERNED BY THIS SWELL BUT TO
A LESSER EXTENT. BECAUSE OF THE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK, BOTH
ISLANDS SHOULD AVOID THE MOST DISASTROUS IMPACTS, NOTABLY IN TERMS OF
WINDS. THE CLOSEST PASSAGE IS STILL FORECAST AT THE END OF THE NIGHT
FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY. THE INHABITANTS OF THESE ISLANDS ARE INVITED
TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 221250 RRA

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/5/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 22/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 21 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.9 S / 58.8 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET CINQUANTE HUIT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.5/5.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 949 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 190 SO: 140 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 50

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 23/12/2018 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 59.9 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 23/12/2018 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 61.3 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 24/12/2018 00 UTC: 24.0 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 24/12/2018 12 UTC: 26.0 S / 65.2 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 25/12/2018 00 UTC: 28.5 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 25/12/2018 12 UTC: 31.6 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 26/12/2018 12 UTC: 36.8 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
120H: 27/12/2018 12 UTC: 37.7 S / 79.8 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=5.5.CI=5.5+

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 221250 RRA

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/5/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/22 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.9 S / 58.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL
EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 949 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 190 SW: 140 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/23 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 59.9 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/12/23 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 61.3 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/12/24 00 UTC: 24.0 S / 63.2 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/12/24 12 UTC: 26.0 S / 65.2 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/12/25 00 UTC: 28.5 S / 67.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/12/25 12 UTC: 31.6 S / 68.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/12/26 12 UTC: 36.8 S / 72.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/12/27 12 UTC: 37.7 S / 79.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5.CI=5.5+

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 221250

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/5/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 22/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 21 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.9 S / 58.8 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET CINQUANTE HUIT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.5/5.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 949 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 190 SO: 140 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 50

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 23/12/2018 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 59.9 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 23/12/2018 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 61.3 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 24/12/2018 00 UTC: 24.0 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 24/12/2018 12 UTC: 26.0 S / 65.2 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 25/12/2018 00 UTC: 28.5 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 25/12/2018 12 UTC: 31.6 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 26/12/2018 12 UTC: 36.8 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
120H: 27/12/2018 12 UTC: 37.7 S / 79.8 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=5.5;CI=5.5+

AU COURS DES 6 HEURES PASSEES, CILIDA A CONTINUE DE MONTRER DES
FAIBLESSES AVEC UN OEIL MOINS BIEN DEFINI. LES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES
AMSR2 DE 1003UTC SEMBLENT MONTRER UN DEBUT DE CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT
DU MUR DE L'OEIL. CELA IMPLIQUE UN FUTUR AFFAIBLISSEMENT DES VENTS
MAXIMAUX ACCOMPAGNE D'UNE EXTENSION DE LA ZONE DES VENTS FORTS. CE
CHANGEMENT DANS LA STRUCTURE DU CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE CILIDA
DEVRAIT INDUIRE DES VENTS PLUS SOUTENUS A DISTANCE DU CENTRE ET PAR
CONSEQUENT, LES ILES MAURICE ET RODRIGUES POURRAIENT ETRE CONCERNEES
PAR DES VENTS UN PEU PLUS FORT.

LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE EVOLUE PEU : LE DEPLACEMENT DE CILIDA
RESTE PILOTE PAR LA FACE OUEST D'UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. LE
DECALAGE DE CETTE CELLULE DE HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS VERS L'EST ET
L'ARRIVEE D'UN THALWEG DE MOYENNE/HAUTE TROPOSPHERE PAR L'OUEST,
MANTIENNENT UNE ORIENTATION SUD-EST POUR LA NUIT PROCHAINE. AVEC UNE
DISPERSION DES MODELES RESTANT RELATIVEMENT FAIBLE, UNE BONNE
CONFIANCE EST DONNE A LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE. CILIDA DEVRAIT
ACCELERER SA TRAJECTOIRE EN COURS DE NUIT PROCHAINE LORS DE SON
PASSAGE AU PLUS PRES ENTRE MAURICE ET RODRIGUES, AVANT DE PLONGER
VERS LES LATITUDES PLUS SUD.

LE SYSTEME SE TROUVE ENCORE SOUS L'AXE DE LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE, SOUS
UN CISAILLEMENT FAIBLE A MODERE. UNE HAUSSE SIGNIFICATIVE DU
CISAILLEMENT A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE ET UN ENVIRONNEMENT
PLUS SEC EN MOYENNE TROPO DEVRAIT INITIER L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU
SYSTEME EN COURS DE NUIT PROCHAINE. L'INTENSITE DE CILIDA DEVRAIT
ALORS BAISSER JUSQU'AU SEUIL DE CYCLONE TROPICAL EN MATINEE DE
DIMANCHE AU MOMENT DE SON ACCELERATION. L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT PROGRESSIF
VA SE POURSUIVRE ET DES MARDI, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DU TALWEG D'ALTITUDE
QUI FINIT PAR LE RATTRAPER, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT ENTAMER UNE PHASE
D'EXTRATROPICALISATION.

CE SYSTEME EST TRES DANGEREUX. IL PRESENTE UNE MENACE POTENTIELLE
POUR L'ARCHIPEL DES MASCAREIGNES, PRINCIPALEMENT ILES MAURICE ET
RODRIGUES. UNE HOULE CYCLONIQUE CONCERNE CES ILES ET VA FORCIR AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES HEURES. LE REUNION EST AUSSI CONCERNEE PAR CETTE
HOULE MAIS DANS UNE MOINDRE MESURE. AU VU DE LA FAIBLE INCERTITUDE
SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE, LES DEUX ILES DEVRAIENT ECHAPPER AUX PIRES
CONDITIONS, NOTAMMENT EN TERMES DE VENT. LE PASSAGE AU PLUS PRES EST
TOUJOURS ENVISAGE EN FIN DE NUIT DE SAMEDI A DIMANCHE. LES HABITANTS
DE CES ILES SONT INVITES A SUIVRE ATTENTIVEMENT L'EVOLUTION DE LA
SITUATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 221250

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/5/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/22 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.9 S / 58.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL
EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 949 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 190 SW: 140 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/23 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 59.9 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/12/23 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 61.3 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/12/24 00 UTC: 24.0 S / 63.2 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/12/24 12 UTC: 26.0 S / 65.2 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/12/25 00 UTC: 28.5 S / 67.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/12/25 12 UTC: 31.6 S / 68.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/12/26 12 UTC: 36.8 S / 72.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/12/27 12 UTC: 37.7 S / 79.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5;CI=5.5+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CILIDA HAS SHOWN A WEAKNESS IN ITS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE WESTERN SECTOR THAT COULD HAVE SUGGESTED
AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE 0256UTC MICROWAVE DATA DO NOT
VALIDATE THIS HYPOTHESIS. CONVECTION HAS RESUMED UNIFORMLY AROUND THE
CILIDA'S CENTER OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH A DVORAK ANALYSIS THAT
ESTIMATES WINDS IN THE ORDER OF 105KT AROUND THE CENTRE.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, NO MUCH CHANGE: THE DISPLACEMENT OF CILIDA REMAINS
STEERED BY THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THE GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT OF THESE SUBTROPICAL HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS
AND THE ARRIVAL OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST, MAINTAIN A
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION FOR THE NEXT NIGHT. AS THE DISPERSION OF
THE MODELS REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW, A GOOD CONFIDENCE IS GIVEN TO THE
TRACK FORECAST. CILIDA IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE ITS TRACK DURING THE
NIGHT FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY AS IT PASSES AS CLOSE AS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN MAURITIUS AND RODRIGUES, BEFORE MOVING TOWARDS MORE SOUTHERN
LATITUDES.

THE SYSTEM IS STILL CURRENTLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, WITH LOW
TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR. A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE OF WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF
AN UPPER TROUGH AND A DRIER ENVIRONMENT ON AVERAGE TROPO SHOULD
INITIATE THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. CICILA'S INTENSITY IS EXPECTED
TO DECREASE TO THE THRESHOLD OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SUNDAY MORNING
AT THE TIME OF ITS ACCELERATION. THE GRADUAL WEAKENING WILL CONTINUE
AND ON TUESDAY, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH THAT SHOULD
EVENTUALLY CATCH UP, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN AN EXTRATROPICALISATION
PHASE.

CILIDA IS VERY DANGEROUS. IT IS POSING A POTENTIAL THREAT TO THE
MASCARENES ISLANDS ESPECIALLY MAURITIUS AND RODRIGUES ISLANDS. A
CYCLONIC SWELL IS AFFECTING THESE ISLANDS AND WILL INCREASE IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. REUNION ISLAND IS ALSO CONCERNED BY THIS SWELL BUT TO
A LESSER EXTENT. BECAUSE OF THE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK, BOTH
ISLANDS SHOULD AVOID THE MOST DISASTROUS IMPACTS, NOTABLY IN TERMS OF
WINDS. THE CLOSEST PASSAGE IS STILL FORECAST AT THE END OF THE NIGHT
FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY. THE INHABITANTS OF THESE ISLANDS ARE INVITED
TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 221203
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 22/12/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 22/12/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA) 949 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.9 S / 58.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 MN IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/110 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 105 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/23 AT 00 UTC:
19.7 S / 59.9 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/12/23 AT 12 UTC:
21.7 S / 61.3 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 220900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 17.0S 58.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 58.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 18.7S 59.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 17.0S 58.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 58.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 18.7S 59.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 20.8S 60.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 22.9S 62.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 25.2S 64.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 30.6S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 58.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CILIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 196 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER
WEAKENED WITH SIGNS OF ELONGATION AND DISPERSION ALONG THE SOUTHERN
FLANK. HOWEVER, THE CENTRAL CONVECTION REMAINS INTACT, INCLUDING A
WELL-DEFINED 5-NM PINHOLE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI EYE THAT STACKED WELL WITH A SMALL
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 220502Z AMSU PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON EQUIVALENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T6.0/115KTS FROM PGTW AND
KNES. THE SYSTEM IS IN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-26 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). TC
07S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS VWS INCREASES DUE TO EXPOSURE TO THE
PREVAILING WESTERLIES, SSTS DECREASE, AND COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ENTRAINS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TC CILIDA WILL BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48 AND WILL BECOME A STORM-FORCE
COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 72. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S
(KENANGA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 220637 RRA

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/5/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 22/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 21 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.0 S / 58.4 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES ZERO SUD ET CINQUANTE HUIT DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.5/6.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 945 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 105 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 190 SO: 140 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 50

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 22/12/2018 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX=095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 23/12/2018 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 60.6 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 23/12/2018 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 24/12/2018 06 UTC: 25.1 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 24/12/2018 18 UTC: 27.0 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 25/12/2018 06 UTC: 30.2 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 26/12/2018 06 UTC: 36.0 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
120H: 27/12/2018 06 UTC: 37.6 S / 77.3 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=5.5+.CI=6.0+

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 220637 RRA

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/5/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/22 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0 S / 58.4 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL
FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 945 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 190 SW: 140 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/22 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 59.3 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2018/12/23 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 60.6 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/12/23 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 62.4 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/12/24 06 UTC: 25.1 S / 64.4 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/12/24 18 UTC: 27.0 S / 66.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/12/25 06 UTC: 30.2 S / 67.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/12/26 06 UTC: 36.0 S / 71.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/12/27 06 UTC: 37.6 S / 77.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5+.CI=6.0+

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 220637

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/5/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 22/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 21 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.0 S / 58.4 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES ZERO SUD ET CINQUANTE HUIT DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.5/6.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 945 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 105 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 190 SO: 140 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 50

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 22/12/2018 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX=095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 23/12/2018 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 60.6 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 23/12/2018 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 24/12/2018 06 UTC: 25.1 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 24/12/2018 18 UTC: 27.0 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 25/12/2018 06 UTC: 30.2 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 26/12/2018 06 UTC: 36.0 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
120H: 27/12/2018 06 UTC: 37.6 S / 77.3 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=5.5+;CI=6.0+

LORS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, CILIDA A MONTRE UNE FAIBLESSE DANS SON
ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE DANS LE SECTEUR OUEST QUI AURAIT PU FAIRE PENSER
A UN CYCLE DE L'OEIL. LES DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES DE 0256UTC NE
PERMETTENT PAS DE VALIDER CETTE HYPOTHESE. LA CONVECTION A REPRIS DE
FACON UNIFORME AUTOUR DU CENTRE DE CILIDA SUR LES DERNIERES HEURES
AVEC UNE ANALYSE DVORAK QUI PERMET D'ESTIMER DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE
105KT AUTOUR DU CENTRE.

EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE, PEU DE CHANGEMENT : LE DEPLACEMENT DE CILIDA
RESTE PILOTE PAR LA FACE OUEST D'UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. LE
DECALAGE DE CETTE CELLULE DE HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS VERS L'EST ET
L'ARRIVEE D'UN THALWEG DE MOYENNE/HAUTE TROPOSPHERE PAR L'OUEST, ONT
INITIE L'ORIENTATION ACTUELLE VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST QUI DOIT SE
MANTENIR POUR LA JOURNEE. LA DISPERSION DES MODELES RESTANT
RELATIVEMENT FAIBLE, UNE BONNE CONFIANCE EST DONNE A LA PREVISION DE
TRAJECTOIRE. CILIDA DEVRAIT ACCELERER SA TRAJECTOIRE EN COURS DE NUIT
DE SAMEDI A DIMANCHE LORS DE SON PASSAGE AU PLUS PRES ENTRE MAURICE
ET RODRIGUES, AVANT DE PLONGER VERS LES LATITUDES PLUS SUD.

LE SYSTEME SE TROUVE ENCORE SOUS L'AXE DE LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE ET
BENEFICIE DE TRES BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES JUSQU'A LA
MI-JOURNEE. EN SECONDE PARTIE DE JOURNEE, UNE HAUSSE SIGNIFICATIVE DU
CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST NORD-OUEST A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE ET
UN ENVIRONNEMENT PLUS SEC EN MOYENNE TROPO DEVRAIT INITIER
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME. L'INTENSITE DE CILIDA DEVRAIT BAISSER
JUSQU'AU SEUIL DE CYCLONE TROPICAL EN MATINEE DE DIMANCHE AU MOMENT
DE SON ACCELERATION. L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT PROGRESSIF VA SE POURSUIVRE ET
DES MARDI, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DU TALWEG D'ALTITUDE QUI FINIT PAR LE
RATTRAPER, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT ENTAMER UNE PHASE D'EXTRATROPICALISATI
ON.

CE SYSTEME EST TRES DANGEREUX. IL PRESENTE UNE MENACE POTENTIELLE
POUR L'ARCHIPEL DES MASCAREIGNES, PRINCIPALEMENT ILES MAURICE ET
RODRIGUES. CEPENDANT, AU VU DE SA TAILLE COMPACTE ET DE LA FAIBLE
INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE, LES DEUX ILES DEVRAIENT ECHAPPER AUX
PIRES CONDITIONS, NOTAMMENT EN TERMES DE VENT. LE PASSAGE AU PLUS
PRES EST TOUJOURS ENVISAGE EN FIN DE NUIT DE SAMEDI A DIMANCHE. LES
HABITANTS DE CES ILES SONT INVITES A SUIVRE ATTENTIVEMENT L'EVOLUTION
DE LA SITUATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 220637

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/5/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/22 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0 S / 58.4 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL
FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 945 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 190 SW: 140 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/22 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 59.3 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2018/12/23 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 60.6 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/12/23 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 62.4 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/12/24 06 UTC: 25.1 S / 64.4 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/12/24 18 UTC: 27.0 S / 66.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/12/25 06 UTC: 30.2 S / 67.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/12/26 06 UTC: 36.0 S / 71.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/12/27 06 UTC: 37.6 S / 77.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5+;CI=6.0+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CILIDA HAS SHOWN A WEAKNESS IN ITS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE WESTERN SECTOR THAT COULD HAVE SUGGESTED
AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE 0256UTC MICROWAVE DATA DO NOT
VALIDATE THIS HYPOTHESIS. CONVECTION HAS RESUMED UNIFORMLY AROUND THE
CILIDA'S CENTER OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH A DVORAK ANALYSIS THAT
ESTIMATES WINDS IN THE ORDER OF 105KT AROUND THE CENTRE.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, NO MUCH CHANGE: THE DISPLACEMENT OF CILIDA REMAINS
STEERED BY THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THE GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT OF THESE SUBTROPICAL HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS
AND THE ARRIVAL OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST, HAVE INITIATED
THE CURRENT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION THAT MUST BE MAINTAINED FOR
THE DAY. AS THE DISPERSION OF THE MODELS REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW, A
GOOD CONFIDENCE IS GIVEN TO THE TRACK FORECAST. CILIDA IS EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE ITS TRACK DURING THE NIGHT FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY AS IT
PASSES AS CLOSE AS POSSIBLE BETWEEN MAURITIUS AND RODRIGUES, BEFORE
MOVING TOWARDS MORE SOUTHERN LATITUDES.

THE SYSTEM IS STILL CURRENTLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
BENEFITS FROM VERY GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS UNTIL MID-DAY TODAY.
IN THE SECOND PART OF THE DAY, A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE
WEST-NORTHWEST SHEAR AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND A DRIER ENVIRONMENT
ON AVERAGE TROPO SHOULD INITIATE THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM.
CICILA'S INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE THRESHOLD OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SUNDAY MORNING AT THE TIME OF ITS ACCELERATION.
THE GRADUAL WEAKENING WILL CONTINUE AND ON TUESDAY, UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH THAT SHOULD EVENTUALLY CATCH UP, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN AN EXTRATROPICALISATION PHASE.

CILIDA IS VERY DANGEROUS. IT IS POSING A POTENTIAL THREAT TO THE
MASCARENES ISLANDS ESPECIALLY MAURITIUS AND RODRIGUES ISLANDS.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE CORE AND THE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
THE TRACK, BOTH ISLANDS SHOULD AVOID THE MOST DISASTROUS IMPACTS,
NOTABLY IN TERMS OF WINDS. THE CLOSEST PASSAGE IS STILL FORECAST FOR
THE END OF TOMORROW'S NIGHT. THE INHABITANTS OF THESE ISLANDS ARE
INVITED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 220605
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 22/12/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 22/12/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA) 945 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0 S / 58.4 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 230 MN IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/110 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 105 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/22 AT 18 UTC:
18.9 S / 59.3 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/12/23 AT 06 UTC:
20.8 S / 60.6 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 220300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 16.2S 57.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 57.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.7S 58.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 16.2S 57.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 57.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.7S 58.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 19.5S 59.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 21.5S 61.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 23.6S 63.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 27.8S 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 58.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CILIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 236 NM
NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 15 NM WIDE EYE EVIDENT IN ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 125
KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T6.5 (127 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH WARM
(27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST), LOW (10-15 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC 07S IS TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
EAST. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 07S WILL ACCELERATE
SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT TRACKS AROUND THE STR AXIS. TC 07S
IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH TAU 36 THEN WEAKEN MORE
QUICKLY AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS INTERACTING WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND EXPERIENCES INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SST.
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BEGIN AT TAU 36 AND WILL BE COMPLETED
AROUND TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT (SPREAD
OF 100 NM) THROUGH TAU 36 BUT THE SPREAD INCREASES TO 265 NM BY TAU
72, LENDING TO FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THROUGH
TAU 36 AND POOR CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z,
222100Z AND 230300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 220039 RRA

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/5/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 22/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 15 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.2 S / 58.0 E
(SEIZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE HUIT DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 6.0/6.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 940 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 110 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 190 SO: 140 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 50

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 22/12/2018 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX=105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 23/12/2018 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 23/12/2018 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 61.0 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 24/12/2018 00 UTC: 24.4 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 24/12/2018 12 UTC: 26.6 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 25/12/2018 00 UTC: 29.1 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 26/12/2018 00 UTC: 34.7 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 27/12/2018 00 UTC: 37.2 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=6.0-.CI=6.5

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 220039 RRA

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/5/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/22 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2 S / 58.0 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL
ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 190 SW: 140 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/22 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 58.3 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2018/12/23 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 59.4 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2018/12/23 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 61.0 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/12/24 00 UTC: 24.4 S / 63.1 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/12/24 12 UTC: 26.6 S / 65.4 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/12/25 00 UTC: 29.1 S / 67.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/12/26 00 UTC: 34.7 S / 70.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/12/27 00 UTC: 37.2 S / 74.2 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=6.0-.CI=6.5

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 220039

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/5/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 22/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 15 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.2 S / 58.0 E
(SEIZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE HUIT DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 6.0/6.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 940 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 110 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 190 SO: 140 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 50

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 22/12/2018 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX=105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 23/12/2018 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 23/12/2018 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 61.0 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 24/12/2018 00 UTC: 24.4 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 24/12/2018 12 UTC: 26.6 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 25/12/2018 00 UTC: 29.1 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 26/12/2018 00 UTC: 34.7 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 27/12/2018 00 UTC: 37.2 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=6.0-;CI=6.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX SE SONT ENCORE
LEGEREMENT RECHAUFFES, DEGRADANT AINSI LA PRESENTATION SATELLITE IR.
LA PASSE ASCAT DE 1754Z MONTRE TOUJOURS QUE LE COUP DE VENT EST
ATTEINT SUR UNE ZONE TRES RESTREINTE. LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES DE LA
PASSE AMSR2 DE 2150Z MONTRENT ENCORE UN COEUR SOLIDE. CEPENDANT, EN
89GHZ, UNE ETROITE BANDE S'ENROULE TRES PRES DE L'ANNEAU DE
CONVECTION CENTRAL. CES DEUX STRUCTURES, BIEN QUE TRES PROCHES,
SEMBLENT MEME SEPAREES PAR UNE "MOAT AREA". CELA POURRAIT ETRE LE
SIGNE DU DEBUT D'UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL (ERC). LES
PROCHAINES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES DEVRAIENT PERMETTRE D'EPROUVER LA
VALIDITE DE CETTE HYPOTHESE.

EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE, LE DEPLACEMENT DE CILIDA RESTE PILOTE PAR LA
FACE OUEST D'UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. LE DECALAGE DE CETTE CELLULE
DE HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS VERS L'EST ET SURTOUT L'ARRIVEE D'UN THALWEG
DE MOYENNE/HAUTE TROPOSPHERE PAR L'OUEST, ONT POUSSE LE SYSTEME A
PRENDRE GRADUELLEMENT LA DIRECTION DU SUD-SUD-EST CETTE NUIT. EN
COURS DE JOURNEE, CILIDA DEVRAIT FINIR DE TOURNER VERS LE SUD-EST EN
ACCELERANT. LA DISPERSION DES MODELES RESTE RELATIVEMENT FAIBLE.

LE SYSTEME SE TROUVE ENCORE SOUS L'AXE DE LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE ET
BENEFICIE DE TRES BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES JUSQU'A LA
MI-JOURNEE (AVEC NOTAMMENT UNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE DOPE PAR DEUX
CANAUX D'EVACUATIONS). IL RESTE DONC UNE FENETRE DE 6 A 12H POUR
EVENTUELLEMENT ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TOPICAL TRES INTENSE.
CEPENDANT, SI UN ERC SE DECLENCHE EFFECTIVEMENT DANS LES PROCHAINES
HEURES, L'INTENSITE DEVRAIT BAISSER UN PEU PLUS RAPIDEMENT QUE PREVU.

EN SECONDE PARTIE DE JOURNEE, UNE HAUSSE SIGNIFICATIVE DU
CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST NORD-OUEST A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE ET
UN ENVIRONNEMENT PLUS SEC EN MOYENNE TROPO DEVRAIT LANCER
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME. LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME LE REND
POTENTIELLEMENT PLUS SENSIBLE A SON ENVIRONNEMENT. LUNDI, LE SYSTEME
S'EVACUE VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES EN CONTINUANT SON
AFFAIBLISSEMENT SUR DES EAUX PLUS FROIDES. DES MARDI, SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DU THALWEG D'ALTITUDE QUI FINIT PAR LE RATTRAPER, LE
SYSTEME POURRAIT ENTAMER UNE PHASE D'EXTRATROPICALISATION.

CE SYSTEME EST TRES DANGEREUX. IL PRESENTE UNE MENACE POTENTIELLE
POUR L'ARCHIPEL DES MASCAREIGNES, PRINCIPALEMENT ILES MAURICE ET
RODRIGUES. CEPENDANT, AU VU DE SA TAILLE COMPACTE ET DE LA FAIBLE
INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE, LES DEUX ILES DEVRAIENT ECHAPPER AUX
PIRES CONDITIONS, NOTAMMENT EN TERMES DE VENT. LE PASSAGE AU PLUS
PRES EST TOUJOURS ENVISAGE EN FIN DE NUIT DE SAMEDI A DIMANCHE. LES
HABITANTS DE CES ILES SONT INVITES A SUIVRE ATTENTIVEMENT L'EVOLUTION
DE LA SITUATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 220039

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/5/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/22 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2 S / 58.0 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL
ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 190 SW: 140 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/22 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 58.3 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2018/12/23 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 59.4 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2018/12/23 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 61.0 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/12/24 00 UTC: 24.4 S / 63.1 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/12/24 12 UTC: 26.6 S / 65.4 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/12/25 00 UTC: 29.1 S / 67.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/12/26 00 UTC: 34.7 S / 70.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/12/27 00 UTC: 37.2 S / 74.2 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=6.0-;CI=6.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CLOUD TOPS HAVE SLIGHTLY WARMED AGAIN, THUS
DETERIORATING THE SAT IR PRESENTATION. THE 1754Z ASCAT SWATH STILL
SHOWS THAT GALE FORCE IS REACHED ON A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA. AMSR2
2150Z MW IMAGES SHOW A SOLID INNER-CORE. HOWEVER, ON THE 89GHZ IMAGE,
A NARROW BAND IS TIGHTLY WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTRAL CONVECTION RING.
THESE TWO STRUCTURES, ALTHOUGH VERY CLOSE, SEEM ALSO SEPARATED BY A
NARROW MOAT AREA. THIS COULD BE THE SIGN OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE (ERC). THE NEXT MW IMAGES SHOULD ALLOW TO VERIFY THIS
HYPOTHESIS.

IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, CILIDA REMAINS STEERED BY THE WESTERN
EDGE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE GRADUAL EASTWARD
SHIFT OF THESE SUBTROPICAL HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS AND THE ARRIVAL OF A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST HAVE ALREADY DRIVEN A
SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS TURN. LATER TODAY, CILIDA SHOULD FINISH TO TURN
SOUTH-EASTWARD WHILE ACCELERATING. THE DISPERSION OF THE AVAILABLE
NWP MODELS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW.

THE SYSTEM IS STILL CURRENTLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
BENEFITS FROM VERY GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS UNTIL MID-DAY TODAY
(WITH A VERY GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASED BY TWO OUTFLOW
CHANNELS). A 6-12 H WINDOW REMAINS FOR THE SYSTEM TO MAYBE REACH THE
VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. HOWEVER, IF AN ERC DOES BEGIN IN
THE NEXT HOURS, THE INTENSITY SHOULD DECREASE A LITTLE QUICKER THAN
ANTICIPATED.

IN THE SECOND HALF OF DAY, A STRENGTHENING OF THE WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY
SHEAR AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND DRIER MID-LEVELS SHOULD TRIGGER
THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM IS MAKING
IT POTENTIALLY MORE SENSIBLE TO ITS ENVIRONMENT. MONDAY, THE SYSTEM
EVACUATES TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES WHILE STILL WEAKENING OVER COOLER
WATERS. FROM TUESDAY, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH THAT
SHOULD EVENTUALLY CATCH UP, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN AN
EXTRATROPICALISATION PHASE.

CILIDA IS VERY DANGEROUS. IT IS POSING A POTENTIAL THREAT TO THE
MASCARENES ISLANDS ESPECIALLY MAURITIUS AND RODRIGUES ISLANDS.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE CORE AND THE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
THE TRACK, BOTH ISLANDS SHOULD AVOID THE MOST DISASTROUS IMPACTS,
NOTABLY IN TERMS OF WINDS. THE CLOSEST PASSAGE IS STILL FORECAST FOR
THE END OF TOMORROW'S NIGHT. THE INHABITANTS OF THESE ISLANDS ARE
INVITED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 220018
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 22/12/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 22/12/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA) 940 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2 S / 58.0 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/110 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 105 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/22 AT 12 UTC:
17.7 S / 58.3 E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/12/23 AT 00 UTC:
19.8 S / 59.4 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 212100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 15.6S 57.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 57.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 17.0S 58.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 15.6S 57.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 57.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 17.0S 58.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 18.7S 59.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 20.6S 60.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 22.8S 62.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 27.0S 65.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 31.7S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 57.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CILIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 271 NM
NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 15 NM WIDE EYE EVIDENT IN ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. A BULLSEYE 211755Z METOP-B
ASCAT PASS REVEALS A RELATIVELY SMALL, SYMMETRIC WIND FIELD. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH MULTI-AGENCY
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T6.0-T7.0 (115-140
KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST), LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
AND RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC 07S IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST, TC 07S WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT
TRACKS AROUND THE STR AXIS. TC 07S IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH TAU 36. AROUND TAU 48, THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
WILL BE COMPLETED SOMETIME BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 140 NM AT TAU 72 AND
210 NM AT TAU 96, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 33 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 211848 RRA

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/5/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 21/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 15 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.6 S / 57.7 E
(QUINZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET CINQUANTE SEPT DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 6.0/6.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 945 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 115 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 190 SO: 170 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 160 SO: 140 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 90
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 70

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 22/12/2018 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX=120 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL TRES INTENSE
24H: 22/12/2018 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 59.2 E, VENT MAX=110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 23/12/2018 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 60.4 E, VENT MAX=095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 23/12/2018 18 UTC: 23.4 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 24/12/2018 06 UTC: 25.4 S / 64.3 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 24/12/2018 18 UTC: 27.0 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 25/12/2018 18 UTC: 32.2 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 26/12/2018 18 UTC: 36.4 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=6.0+.CI=6.5+

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 211848 RRA

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/5/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/21 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6 S / 57.7 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL
SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 945 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 115 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 190 SW: 170 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 160 SW: 140 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/22 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 58.0 E, MAX WIND=120 KT, VERY
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2018/12/22 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 59.2 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2018/12/23 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 60.4 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2018/12/23 18 UTC: 23.4 S / 62.2 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/12/24 06 UTC: 25.4 S / 64.3 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2018/12/24 18 UTC: 27.0 S / 66.0 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/12/25 18 UTC: 32.2 S / 69.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/12/26 18 UTC: 36.4 S / 72.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=6.0+.CI=6.5+

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 211848

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/5/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 21/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 15 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.6 S / 57.7 E
(QUINZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET CINQUANTE SEPT DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 6.0/6.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 945 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 115 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 190 SO: 170 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 160 SO: 140 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 90
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 70

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 22/12/2018 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX=120 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL TRES INTENSE
24H: 22/12/2018 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 59.2 E, VENT MAX=110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 23/12/2018 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 60.4 E, VENT MAX=095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 23/12/2018 18 UTC: 23.4 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 24/12/2018 06 UTC: 25.4 S / 64.3 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 24/12/2018 18 UTC: 27.0 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 25/12/2018 18 UTC: 32.2 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 26/12/2018 18 UTC: 36.4 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=6.0+;CI=6.5+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA PRESENTATION SATELLITE A
GLOBALEMENT PEU EVOLUE ET EST RESTEE A UN NIVEAU IMPRESSIONNANT
MALGRE UN LEGER RECHAUFFEMENT DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX EN MILIEU DE
PERIODE. LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES DES PASSES SSMIS DE 1447Z ET 1345Z
REVELENT TOUJOURS UNE SOLIDE STRUCTURE INTERNE, DE PETITE TAILLE.
AUCUN SIGNE AVANT-COUREUR D'UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL
(ERC) NE SEMBLE VISIBLE SUR CES IMAGES. LES TOUTES DERNIERES IMAGES
SUGGERENT QUE CILIDA A COMMENCER A SE DEPLACER EN DIRECTION DU
SUD-EST.

EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE, LE DEPLACEMENT DE CILIDA RESTE PILOTE PAR LA
FACE OUEST D'UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. LE DECALAGE DE LA CELLULE DE
HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS VERS L'EST ET SURTOUT L'ARRIVEE D'UN THALWEG DE
MOYENNE/HAUTE TROPOSPHERE PAR L'OUEST, DEVRAIENT POUSSER LE SYSTEME A
PRENDRE GRADUELLEMENT LA DIRECTION DU SUD-SUD-EST CETTE NUIT PUIS
SUD-EST EN ACCELERANT DEMAIN. LA DISPERSION DES MODELES RESTE
RELATIVEMENT FAIBLE.

LE SYSTEME SE TROUVE SOUS L'AXE DE LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE ET BENEFICIE
DE TRES BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES JUSQU'A DEMAIN (AVEC
NOTAMMENT UNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE DOPE PAR DEUX CANAUX
D'EVACUATIONS). LE MPI (POTENTIEL MAXIMUM) EST DE L'ORDRE DE 125KT
SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE. EN CONSEQUENCE, AU VU DES DERNIERES IMAGES, LE
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL TRES INTENSE POURRAIT ETRE ATTEINT CETTE
NUIT. D'APRES LES DONNEES M-PERC DU CIMSS, LE DECLENCHEMENT D'UN ERC
DANS LE SPROCHAINES HEURES EST FORTEMENT POSSIBLE, CE QUI POURRAIT
MODULER L'INTENSITE.

A PARTIR DE DEMAIN SAMEDI, UNE HAUSSE SIGNIFICATIVE DU CISAILLEMENT
D'OUEST NORD-OUEST A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE ET UN
ENVIRONNEMENT PLUS SEC EN MOYENNE TROPO DEVRAIT LANCER
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME, TANDIS QU'IL ENTAME SA DESCENTE VERS
LES MOYENNES LATITUDES. LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME LE REND
POTENTIELLEMENT PLUS SENSIBLE A SON ENVIRONNEMENT. EN TOUTE FIN
D'ECHEANCE, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DU THALWEG D'ALTITUDE QUI FINIT PAR LE
RATTRAPER, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT ENTAMER UNE PHASE D'EXTRATROPICALISATI
ON.

CE SYSTEME EST TRES DANGEREUX ET CONTINUE DE SE RENFORCER. IL
PRESENTE UNE MENACE POTENTIELLE POUR L'ARCHIPEL DES MASCAREIGNES,
PRINCIPALEMENT ILES MAURICE ET RODRIGUES. CEPENDANT, AU VU DE SA
TAILLE COMPACTE ET DE LA FAIBLE INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE, LES
DEUX ILES DEVRAIENT ECHAPPER AUX PIRES CONDITIONS DE VENT. LE PASSAGE
AU PLUS PRES EST TOUJOURS ENVISAGE EN FIN DE NUIT DE SAMEDI A
DIMANCHE. LES HABITANTS DE CES ILES SONT INVITES A SUIVRE
ATTENTIVEMENT L'EVOLUTION DE LA SITUATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 211848

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/5/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/21 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6 S / 57.7 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL
SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 945 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 115 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 190 SW: 170 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 160 SW: 140 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/22 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 58.0 E, MAX WIND=120 KT, VERY
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2018/12/22 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 59.2 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2018/12/23 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 60.4 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2018/12/23 18 UTC: 23.4 S / 62.2 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/12/24 06 UTC: 25.4 S / 64.3 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2018/12/24 18 UTC: 27.0 S / 66.0 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/12/25 18 UTC: 32.2 S / 69.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/12/26 18 UTC: 36.4 S / 72.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=6.0+;CI=6.5+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED AND REMAINED AT AN IMPRESSIVE LEVEL, ALBEIT A
SLIGHT WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD. THE
SSMIS 1447Z AND 1345Z MW IMAGES STILL REVEAL A VERY STRONG AND
COMPACT INNER-CORE STRUCTURE. NO INDICATIONS OF AN EVENTUAL EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) ONSET IS VISIBLE ON THESE IMAGES. THE VERY
LAST SAT IMAGES SUGGEST THAT CILIDA ALREADY BEGAN TO TRACK
SOUTH-EASTWARD.

IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, CILIDA REMAINS STEERED BY THE WESTERN
EDGE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEN, WITH THE EASTWARD
SHIFT OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS AND THE ARRIVAL OF A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST, CILIDA SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN
SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTH-EASTWARD TOMORROW WHILE
ACCELERATING. THE DISPERSION OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW.

THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND BENEFITS FROM
VERY GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS UNTIL TOMORROW (WITH A VERY GOOD
UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASED BY TWO OUTFLOW CHANNELS). MAXIMUM
POTENTIAL INTENSITY (MPI) IS NEARING 125KT IN THE AREA. THEREFORE,
GIVEN THE RECENT TREND, THE VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE MAY
STILL VERY WELL BE REACHED TONIGHT. ACCORDING TO CIMSS M-PERC DATA,
AN ERC COULD TRIGGER IN THE NEXT HOURS AND THUS MODULATE THE
INTENSITY.

FROM TOMORROW (SATURDAY), A STRENGTHENING OF THE WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY
SHEAR AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND DRIER MID-LEVELS SHOULD TRIGGER
THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, AS IT BEGINS TO EVACUATE TOWARDS THE
MID-LATITUDES. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM IS MAKING IT POTENTIALLY
MORE SENSIBLE TO ITS ENVIRONMENT. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH THAT SHOULD EVENTUALLY CATCH UP, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN AN EXTRATROPICALISATION PHASE.

CILIDA IS VERY DANGEROUS AND KEEPS ON DEEPENING. IT IS POSING A
POTENTIAL THREAT TO THE MASCARENES ISLANDS ESPECIALLY MAURITIUS AND
RODRIGUES ISLANDS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE CORE AND THE
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK, BOTH ISLANDS SHOULD AVOID THE MOST
DISASTROUS IMPACTS, NOTABLY IN TERMS OF WINDS. THE CLOSEST PASSAGE IS
STILL FORECAST FOR THE END OF TOMORROW'S NIGHT. THE INHABITANTS OF
THESE ISLANDS ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE
SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 211831 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/12/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 21/12/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA) 945 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6 S / 57.7 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/115 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/22 AT 06 UTC:
17.2 S / 58.0 E, MAX WIND = 120 KT, VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 211831
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/12/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 21/12/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA) 945 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6 S / 57.7 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/115 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/22 AT 06 UTC:
17.2 S / 58.0 E, MAX WIND = 120 KT, VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/12/22 AT 18 UTC:
19.1 S / 59.2 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 211500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 15.1S 57.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 57.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.3S 57.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 15.1S 57.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 57.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.3S 57.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.9S 58.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 19.7S 60.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 21.7S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 25.9S 64.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 30.9S 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 57.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CILIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 301 NM
NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 07S HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED 45
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, FROM 90 KNOTS AT 20/12Z TO THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 135 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A 10NM EYE. A 211214Z SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE INDICATES SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A SYMMETRIC CORE AND A
SMALL, ROUND MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 135 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM T6.5 (127 KNOTS) TO T7.0 (140 KNOTS). TC 07S IS WOBBLING
SLIGHTLY AS IT SLOWLY TURNS POLEWARD AND IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
POSITIONED TO THE EAST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 110NM AT TAU 72 AND 205NM AT TAU 96,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST. TC 07S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN 135 TO 140 KNOT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS THROUGH TAU 36 DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 48, TC CILIDA WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT BEGINS
TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING VWS AND TRACKS OVER COOLER SST (24-26C). THE SYSTEM
SHOULD COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96 AS IT GAINS
FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 33 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 211240 RRA

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/5/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 21/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.2 S / 57.7 E
(QUINZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE SEPT DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 6.0/6.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 950 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 105 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 190 SO: 170 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SO: 90 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 22/12/2018 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX=120 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL TRES INTENSE
24H: 22/12/2018 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX=120 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL TRES INTENSE
36H: 23/12/2018 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX=100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 23/12/2018 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 61.3 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 24/12/2018 00 UTC: 24.0 S / 63.4 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 24/12/2018 12 UTC: 26.0 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 25/12/2018 12 UTC: 30.2 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 26/12/2018 12 UTC: 36.6 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=6.0+

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 211240 RRA

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/5/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/21 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2 S / 57.7 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL
SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 950 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 190 SW: 170 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/22 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 57.8 E, MAX WIND=120 KT, VERY
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2018/12/22 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 58.6 E, MAX WIND=120 KT, VERY
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2018/12/23 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 59.7 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2018/12/23 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 61.3 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2018/12/24 00 UTC: 24.0 S / 63.4 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2018/12/24 12 UTC: 26.0 S / 65.5 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/12/25 12 UTC: 30.2 S / 67.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/12/26 12 UTC: 36.6 S / 69.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0+

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 211240

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/5/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 21/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.2 S / 57.7 E
(QUINZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE SEPT DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 6.0/6.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 950 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 105 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 190 SO: 170 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SO: 90 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 22/12/2018 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX=120 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL TRES INTENSE
24H: 22/12/2018 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX=120 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL TRES INTENSE
36H: 23/12/2018 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX=100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 23/12/2018 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 61.3 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 24/12/2018 00 UTC: 24.0 S / 63.4 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 24/12/2018 12 UTC: 26.0 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 25/12/2018 12 UTC: 30.2 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 26/12/2018 12 UTC: 36.6 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=6.0+

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, APRES AVOIR CONTINUE D'OSCILLER
ENTRE 5.0 ET 6.0, LES ANALYSES DVORAK BRUTES ONT RAPIDEMENT AUGMENTE
POUR ATTEINDRE 7.0 PEU AVANT 12Z. CETTE HAUSSE EST ASSOCIEE A UNE
AMELIORATION VISUELLE DE CILIDA EN IMAGERIE CLASSIQUE (VIS/IR/WV).
L'ANNEAU CONVECTIF EST DEVENU PLUS SYMETRIQUE, LARGE ET FROID. LA
DIVERGENCE SEMBLE EGALEMENT TRES BONNE AU VU DE L'OUTFLOW D'ALTITUDE.
L'IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDE AMSR2 DE 0921Z (ET SSMIS 1214Z) CONFIRME CETTE
IMPRESSION, AVEC UN ANNEAU TRES NET PRECEDENT DE QUELQUES HEURES
L'AMELIORATION EN IMAGERIE CLASSIQUE. L'INTENSITE A ETE ETABLIE A
PARTIR D'UNE MOYENNE DES ANALYSES DVORAK BRUTS DES DERNIERES HEURES.
POUR INFORMATION, UNE PASSE SMAP CE MATIN VERS 2Z DONNAIT DES VENTS
MAXIMAUX DE L'ORDRE DE 75/80KT.

EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE, CILIDA A COMMENCE A S'ORIENTER VERS LE SUD
EN MARGE OUEST D'UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. LE DECALAGE DE LA CELLULE
DE HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS VERS L'EST ET L'ARRIVEE D'UN THALWEG DE
MOYENNE/HAUTE TROPOSPHERE PAR L'OUEST (VISIBLE EN VAPEUR D'EAU AU
SUD-EST DE L'AFRIQUE AUSTRALE), DEVRAIENT CONTINUER A FAVORISER
L'ORIENTATION VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST EN COURS DE NUIT PROCHAINE PUIS LE
SUD-EST EN ACCELERANT DEMAIN. LA DISPERSION DES MODELES RESTE
RELATIVEMENT FAIBLE, NOTAMMENT LONGITUDINALEMENT.

LE SYSTEME SE TROUVE SOUS L'AXE DE LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE ET BENEFICIE
DE TRES BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES JUSQU'A DEMAIN (AVEC
NOTAMMENT UNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE DOPE PAR DEUX CANAUX
D'EVACUATIONS). LE MPI (POTENTIEL MAXIMUM) EST DE L'ORDRE DE 125KT
SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE. EN CONSEQUENCE, AU VU DES DERNIERES IMAGES, LE
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL TRES INTENSE POURRAIT ETRE ATTEINT CETTE
NUIT. UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL POURRAIT SE PRODUIRE
ET MODULER L'INTENSITE (LE SIGNAL A AUGMENTE SUR LE PRODUIT MPERC DU
CIMSS).

A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, UNE HAUSSE SIGNIFICATIVE DU CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST
NORD-OUEST A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE ET UN ENVIRONNEMENT PLUS
SEC EN MOYENNE TROPO DEVRAIT LANCER L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME,
TANDIS QU'IL S'EVACUE VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES. EN TOUTE FIN
D'ECHEANCE, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DU THALWEG D'ALTITUDE QUI FINIT PAR LE
RATTRAPER, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT ENTAMER UNE PHASE D'EXTRATROPICALISATI
ON.

CE SYSTEME EST TRES DANGEREUX ET CONTINUE DE SE RENFORCER. IL
PRESENTE UNE MENACE POTENTIELLE POUR L'ARCHIPEL DES MASCAREIGNES,
PRINCIPALEMENT ILES MAURICE ET RODRIGUES. CEPENDANT, AU VU DE LA
TAILLE COMPACTE ET DE LA FAIBLE INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE, LES
DEUX ILES NE DEVRAIENT PAS CONNAITRE LES IMPACTS LES PLUS
DEVASTATEURS POSSIBLES. LE PASSAGE AU PLUS PRES EST TOUJOURS ENVISAGE
EN FIN DE NUIT DE SAMEDI A DIMANCHE. LES HABITANTS DE CES ILES SONT
INVITES A SUIVRE ATTENTIVEMENT L'EVOLUTION DE LA SITUATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 211240

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/5/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/21 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2 S / 57.7 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL
SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 950 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 190 SW: 170 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/22 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 57.8 E, MAX WIND=120 KT, VERY
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2018/12/22 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 58.6 E, MAX WIND=120 KT, VERY
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2018/12/23 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 59.7 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2018/12/23 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 61.3 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2018/12/24 00 UTC: 24.0 S / 63.4 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2018/12/24 12 UTC: 26.0 S / 65.5 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/12/25 12 UTC: 30.2 S / 67.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/12/26 12 UTC: 36.6 S / 69.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0+

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, AFTER OSCILLATING BETWEEN 5.0 AND 6.0, RAW
DVORAK ANALYSIS RAPIDLY REACH 7.0 JUST BEFORE 12Z. THIS INCREASE IS
CONCOMITANT TO A VISUAL IMPROVEMENT OF THE CLOUD PATTERN IN CLASSICAL
IMAGERY (VIS/IR/WV). THE CONVECTIVE RING IS MORE SYMMETRIC, THICK AND
COLD. UPPER DIVERGENCE APPEARS ALSO VERY GOOD GIVEN THE OUTFLOW.
0921Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE (THEN 1214Z SSMIS) CONFIRM THAT IMPRESSION,
WITH A TIGHT AND CLEAR RING, PRECEEDING BY A FEW HOURS THE
IMPROVEMENT IN CLASSICAL IMAGERY. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
AVERAGE OF SEVERAL OF THE LATEST RAW ANALYSIS. FOR INFORMATION, THUIS
MORNING 2Z SMAP SWATH GAVE 75/80KT FOR MAXIMUM WINDS.

ABOUT THE TRACK FORECAST : CILIDA STARTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEN, WITH THE
EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS AND THE ARRIVAL
OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST (SEEN OFF SOUTH-EASTERN AUSTRAL
AFRICA IN WV IMAGERY), CILIDA SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN
SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTH-EASTWARD WHILE
ACCELERATING. THE MODEL DISPERSION REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW, SPECIALLY
REGARDS TO CROSS TRACK SPREAD.

THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND BENEFIT FROM VERY GOOD
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS UNTIL TOMORROW (WITH A VERY GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE INCREASED BY TWO OUTFLOW CHANNELS). MAXIMUM POTENTIEL
INDEX IS AROUND 125KT IN THE AREA. THEREFORE, GIVEN THE RECENT
TREND, VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE MAY BE REACHED TONIGHT.
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE COULD HAPPEN AND COULD MODULATE THE
INTENSITY (THE CIMSS MPERC INDEX IS INCREASING)

FROM SATURDAY, A STRENGTHENING OF THE WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD
OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND A DRIER MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD TRIGGER
THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, AS IT EVACUATES TOWARDS THE
MID-LATITUDES. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS
UPPER TROUGH THAT SHOULD EVENTUALLY CATCH UP, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN
AN EXTRATROPICALISATION PHASE.

CILIDA IS VERY DANGEROUS AND KEEP ON DEEPENING. IT IS POSING A
POTENTIAL THREAT TO THE MASCARENES ISLANDS ESPECIALLY MAURITIUS AND
RODRIGUES ISLANDS. HOWEVER GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE CORE AND THE
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK, BOTH ISLANDS SHOULD AVOID THE MOST
DISASTROUS IMPACTS. THE PASSAGE TO THE CLOSEST IS STILL FORECAST FOR
THE END OF SATURDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE INHABITANTS OF THESE
ISLANDS ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 211215
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/12/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 21/12/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA) 950 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2 S / 57.7 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 140 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/105 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.


FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/22 AT 00 UTC:
16.4 S / 57.8 E, MAX WIND = 120 KT, VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/12/22 AT 12 UTC:
18.1 S / 58.6 E, MAX WIND = 120 KT, VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 14.6S 58.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 58.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 15.6S 57.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 17.1S 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 18.9S 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 20.8S 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 24.7S 64.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 29.8S 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 58.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CILIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 332 NM
NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 07S HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED 45
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, FROM 65 KNOTS AT 20/06Z TO THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAGGED 15NM EYE WITH ASYMMETRIC EYEWALL CONVECTION DUE TO
LOW TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY A
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. A 210522Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS
FRAGMENTED SPIRAL BANDING WITH AN OBLONG EYEWALL SURROUNDING A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 110
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 5.5/6.0 FROM PGTW AND
KNES AS WELL AS A RECENT CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 109 KNOTS. TC 07S
IS WOBBLING SLIGHTLY AS IT SLOWLY TURNS POLEWARD AND IS FORECAST TO
ACCELERATE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 12 AS IT
TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 155NM AT TAU 72
AND 220NM AT TAU 96, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. TC 07S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK
OF 125 KNOTS BY TAU 24 DUE TO GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 48, TC CILIDA WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT BEGINS
TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING VWS AND TRACKS OVER COOLER SST (24-26C). THE SYSTEM
SHOULD COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96 AS IT GAINS
FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 210640 RRA

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/5/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 21/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.6 S / 58.0 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET CINQUANTE HUIT DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.5/5.5/D 1.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 955 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :24 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 280 SO: 310 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 80 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 70
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 40

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 21/12/2018 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 57.7 E, VENT MAX=100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 22/12/2018 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX=105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 22/12/2018 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 58.9 E, VENT MAX=100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 23/12/2018 06 UTC: 21.0 S / 60.2 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 23/12/2018 18 UTC: 23.3 S / 62.1 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 24/12/2018 06 UTC: 25.6 S / 64.1 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 25/12/2018 06 UTC: 29.8 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 26/12/2018 06 UTC: 34.9 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=5.5+

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 210640 RRA

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/5/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/21 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.6 S / 58.0 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL
ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 955 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :24 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 280 SW: 310 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 80 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 70
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 40

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/21 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 57.7 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2018/12/22 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 58.2 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2018/12/22 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 58.9 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2018/12/23 06 UTC: 21.0 S / 60.2 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2018/12/23 18 UTC: 23.3 S / 62.1 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2018/12/24 06 UTC: 25.6 S / 64.1 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/12/25 06 UTC: 29.8 S / 68.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/12/26 06 UTC: 34.9 S / 71.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5+

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 210640

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/5/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 21/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.6 S / 58.0 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET CINQUANTE HUIT DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.5/5.5/D 1.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 955 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :24 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 280 SO: 310 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 80 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 70
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 40

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 21/12/2018 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 57.7 E, VENT MAX=100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 22/12/2018 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX=105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 22/12/2018 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 58.9 E, VENT MAX=100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 23/12/2018 06 UTC: 21.0 S / 60.2 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 23/12/2018 18 UTC: 23.3 S / 62.1 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 24/12/2018 06 UTC: 25.6 S / 64.1 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 25/12/2018 06 UTC: 29.8 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 26/12/2018 06 UTC: 34.9 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=5.5+

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE
CILIDA A GLOBALEMENT PEU EVOLUE. LES ANALYSES DVORAKS BRUTES
CONTINUENT D'OSCILLER ENTRE 5.0 ET 6.0. L'INTENSITE EST DONC MAINTENU
A 95KT, CE QUI RESTE COHERENT AVEC LES AUTRES ANALYSES (SATCON ET
ADT). LES DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES NE MONTRENT PAS D'EVOLUTION
SIGNIFICATIVE DEPUIS 00Z.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT SUR LA PHILOSOPHIE DE LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE:
LE DEPLACEMENT SUD-SUD-OUEST SE MAINTIENT ET DEVRAIT CONTINUER JUSQUE
DANS L'APRES-MIDI OU LA SOIREE, PILOTE PAR UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE
DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE CENTREE AU SUD-EST. ENSUITE AVEC LE DECALAGE
DE LA CELLULE DE HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS VERS L'EST ET L'ARRIVEE D'UN
THALWEG DE MOYENNE/HAUTE TROPOSPHERE PAR L'OUEST (VISIBLE EN VAPEUR
D'EAU AU SUD-EST DE L'AFRIQUE AUSTRALE), CILIDA DEVRAIT RALENTIR ET
TOURNER GRADUELLEMENT VERS SUD-SUD-EST EN COURS DE NUIT PROCHAINE
PUIS LE SUD-EST EN ACCELERANT A PARTIR DE SAMEDI. LA DISPERSION DES
MODELES RESTE RELATIVEMENT FAIBLE, NOTAMMENT LONGITUDINALEMENT.

LE CISAILLEMENT CONTINUE DE BAISSER ALORS QUE LE SYSTEME SE RAPPROCHE
DE L'AXE DE LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE ET BENEFICIERA DE TRES BONNES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES JUSQU'A SAMEDI (AVEC NOTAMMENT UNE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE DOPE PAR DEUX CANAUX D'EVACUATIONS). UN CYCLE
DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL POURRAIT EVENTUELLEMENT SE PRODUIRE
ET MODULER L'INTENSITE (PAS DE SIGNAL SIGNFICATIF SUR LE PRODUIT
MPERC DU CIMSS).

A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, UNE HAUSSE SIGNIFICATIVE DU CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST
NORD-OUEST A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE ET UN ENVIRONNEMENT PLUS
SEC EN MOYENNE TROPO DEVRAIT LANCER L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME,
TANDIS QU'IL S'EVACUE VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES. EN TOUTE FIN
D'ECHEANCE, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DU THALWEG D'ALTITUDE QUI FINIT PAR LE
RATTRAPER, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT ENTAMER UNE PHASE D'EXTRATROPICALISATI
ON.

CE SYSTEME EST MAINTENANT TRES DANGEREUX ET PRESENTE UNE MENACE
POTENTIELLE POUR L'ARCHIPEL DES MASCAREIGNES (PRINCIPALEMENT ILES
MAURICE ET RODRIGUES). LES HABITANTS DE CES ILES SONT INVITES A
SUIVRE ATTENTIVEMENT L'EVOLUTION DE LA SITUATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 210640

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/5/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/21 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.6 S / 58.0 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL
ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 955 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :24 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 280 SW: 310 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 80 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 70
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 40

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/21 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 57.7 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2018/12/22 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 58.2 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2018/12/22 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 58.9 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2018/12/23 06 UTC: 21.0 S / 60.2 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2018/12/23 18 UTC: 23.3 S / 62.1 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2018/12/24 06 UTC: 25.6 S / 64.1 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/12/25 06 UTC: 29.8 S / 68.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/12/26 06 UTC: 34.9 S / 71.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5+

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, CILIDA CLOUD PATTERN, BARELY EVOLVED. RAW
DVORAK ANALYSIS KEEP ON OSCILLATING BETWEEN 5.0 AND 6.0. CURRENT
INTENSITY IS THEREFORE MAINTAINED TO 95KT, IN AGREEMENT WITH OTHERS
ANALYSIS (ADT/SATCON). FROM 00Z, LAST MICROWAVES SHOW NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE ON THE TRACK FORECAST : CILIDA IS STILL STEERED
BY A MID-TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-EAST THAT DRIVES
A DUE SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARDS MOTION UNTIL LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING.
THEN, WITH THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS
AND THE ARRIVAL OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST (SEEN OFF
SOUTH-EASTERN AUSTRAL AFRICA IN WV IMAGERY), CILIDA SHOULD SLOW DOWN
WHILE GRADUALLY TURNING SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS TONIGHT AND THEN
SOUTH-EASTWARD AS IT WILL ACCELERATE SATURDAY. THE MODEL DISPERSION
REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW, SPECIALLY REGARDS TO CROSS TRACK SPREAD.

THE SHEAR IS DECREASING AS THE SYSTEM MOVE CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND BENEFIT FROM VERY GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS UNTIL
SATURDAY (WITH A VERY GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASED BY TWO OUTFLOW
CHANNELS).EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE MAY HAPPEN AND COULD MODULATE THE
INTENSITY (NO CHANGE IN CIMSS MPERC PROBABILITY)

FROM SATURDAY, A STRENGTHENING OF THE WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD
OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND A DRIER MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD TRIGGER
THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, AS IT EVACUATES TOWARDS THE
MID-LATITUDES. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS
UPPER TROUGH THAT SHOULD EVENTUALLY CATCH UP, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN
AN EXTRATROPICALISATION PHASE.

CILIDA IS NOW A VERY DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS POSING A
POTENTIAL THREAT TO THE MASCARENES ISLANDS (MAINLY MAURITIUS AND
RODRIGUES ISLANDS). THE INHABITANTS OF THESE ISLANDS ARE INVITED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 210624 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/12/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 21/12/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA) 955 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.6 S / 58.0 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 210624
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/12/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 21/12/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA) 955 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.6 S / 58.0 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/21 AT 18 UTC:
15.5 S / 57.7 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/12/22 AT 06 UTC:
17.1 S / 58.2 E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 210300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 14.2S 58.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 58.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 15.2S 57.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 14.2S 58.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 58.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 15.2S 57.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.4S 57.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 18.2S 58.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 20.1S 60.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 23.9S 63.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 27.9S 66.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 32.9S 69.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 58.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 357 NM NORTH
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 07S CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY STEADILY
UNDER EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND
FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 CELSIUS). ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 10NM PINHOLE EYE SURROUNDED BY
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE COOLED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED EIR EYE FEATURE, SUPPORTED BY A 202107Z AMSR2 89GHZ
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.5 (102 KNOTS) AND T6.0 (115 KNOTS),
SUPPORTED BY A CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 102 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE AROUND THE
STR AXIS, TURNING THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY POLEWARD AND THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD BY TAU 36. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN THE NEAR-TERM AS CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO PEAK AT TAU 36, AS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SSTS
(26 TO 27 CELSIUS) AND LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL BECOME LIMITING
FACTORS. AFTER TAU 72, TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER STEADILY
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. THIS INCREASING SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER WILL
RESULT IN STEADY WEAKENING IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. TC 07S IS EXPECTED
TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT MERGES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND EXPERIENCES THE UNFAVORABLE VWS BETWEEN TAU
72 AND TAU 120. THE NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 210110 RRA

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/5/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 21/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 15 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.2 S / 58.2 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE HUIT DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 955 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :11 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 280 SO: 310 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 80 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 70
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 40

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 21/12/2018 12 UTC: 15.2 S / 57.4 E, VENT MAX=110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 22/12/2018 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 57.5 E, VENT MAX=110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 22/12/2018 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX=095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 23/12/2018 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 59.2 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 23/12/2018 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 24/12/2018 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 62.8 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 25/12/2018 00 UTC: 28.3 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 26/12/2018 00 UTC: 33.1 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=5.5 CI=5.5+

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 210110 RRA

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/5/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/21 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 58.2 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL
TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 955 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :11 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 280 SW: 310 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 80 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 70
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 40

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/21 12 UTC: 15.2 S / 57.4 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2018/12/22 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 57.5 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2018/12/22 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 58.2 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2018/12/23 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 59.2 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/12/23 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 60.7 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2018/12/24 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 62.8 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/12/25 00 UTC: 28.3 S / 66.4 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/12/26 00 UTC: 33.1 S / 69.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T= 5.5 CI=5.5+

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 210110

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/5/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 21/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 15 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.2 S / 58.2 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE HUIT DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 955 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :11 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 280 SO: 310 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 80 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 70
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 40

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 21/12/2018 12 UTC: 15.2 S / 57.4 E, VENT MAX=110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 22/12/2018 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 57.5 E, VENT MAX=110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 22/12/2018 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX=095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 23/12/2018 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 59.2 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 23/12/2018 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 24/12/2018 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 62.8 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 25/12/2018 00 UTC: 28.3 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 26/12/2018 00 UTC: 33.1 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=5.5 CI=5.5+

LA PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE A CONNU UN ARRET PEU APRES LE
DERNIER BULLETIN. A 21Z, LE DT MOYEN EST RETOMBE A 5.0, MAIS DEPUIS
22Z, LA SIGNATURE EST EN AMELIORATION ET LE DT BRUT A 00Z EST A 6.0.
L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME EST MAINTENUE A 95 KT MAIS DEVRAIT CONTINUER
MONTER DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT SUR LA PHILOSOPHIE DE LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE:
LE DEPLAEMENT FRANCHEMENT SUD-OUEST SE MAINTIENT ET DEVRAIT CONTINUER
JUSQUE DANS L'APRES-MIDI OU LA SOIREE, PILOTE PAR UNE DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE DE MOYENNE TROOSPHERE CENTREE AU SUD-EST. ENSUITE AVEC
LE DECALAGE DE LA CELLULE DE HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS VERS L'EST ET
L'ARRIVEE D'UN THALWEG DE MOYENNE/HAUTE TROPOSPHERE PAR L'OUEST
(VISIBLE EN VAPEUR D'EAU AU SUD-EST DE L'AFRIQUE AUSTRALE), CILIDA
DEVRAIT RALENTIR EN TOURNANT GRADUELLEMENT VERS SUD-SUD-EST EN COURS
DE NUIT PROCHAINE PUIS LE SUD-EST EN ACCELERANT A PARTIR DE SAMEDI.
LA DISPERSION DES MODELES RESTE RELATIVEMENT FAIBLE, NOTAMMENT
LONGITUDINALEMENT. LA PREVISION OFFICIELLE INTEGRE LES TOUTES
PREMIERES SORTIES DES MODELES IFS ET GFS DE 18Z (PORTION DE
TRAJECTOIRE JUSQU'AU 20S).

LE CISAILLEMENT A COMMENCE A BAISSER (15 KT A 21Z SELON LE CIMSS)
ALORS QUE LE SYSTEME SE RAPPROCHE DE L'AXE DE LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE
ET BENEFICIERA DE TRES BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES JUSQU'A
SAMEDI (AVEC NOTAMMENT UNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE DOPEE PAR DEUX
CANAUX D'EVACUATIONS). UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL
POURRAIT SE PRODUIRE ET MODULER L'INTENSITE (PREVISIBILITE LIMITEE
MAIS A 21Z, M-PERC DONNE DES PROBA ENCORE ASSEZ BASSES).

A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, UNE HAUSSE SIGNIFICATIVE DU CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST
NORD-OUEST A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE ET UN ENVIRONNEMENT PLUS
SEC EN MOYENNE TROPO DEVRAIT LANCER L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME,
TANDIS QU'IL S'EVACUE VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES. EN TOUTE FIN
D'ECHEANCE, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DU THALWEG D'ALTITUDE QUI FINIT PAR LE
RATTRAPER, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT ENTAMER UNE PHASE D'EXTRATROPICALISATI
ON.

CE SYSTEME EST MAINTENANT TRES DANGEREUX ET PRESENTE UNE MENACE
POTENTIELLE POUR L'ARCHIPEL DES MASCAREIGNES (PRINCIPALEMENT ILES
MAURICE ET RODRIGUES). LES HABITANTS DE CES ILES SONT INVITES A
SUIVRE ATTENTIVEMENT L'EVOLUTION DE LA SITUATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 210110

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/5/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/21 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 58.2 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL
TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 955 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :11 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 280 SW: 310 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 80 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 70
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 40

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/21 12 UTC: 15.2 S / 57.4 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2018/12/22 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 57.5 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2018/12/22 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 58.2 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2018/12/23 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 59.2 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/12/23 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 60.7 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2018/12/24 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 62.8 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/12/25 00 UTC: 28.3 S / 66.4 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/12/26 00 UTC: 33.1 S / 69.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T= 5.5 CI=5.5+

THE RI SPELL HAS LEVEL OFF JUST AFTER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. AT 21Z,
THE 3HR MEAN DT LOWERED TO 5.0. SINCE 22Z, THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION
IS IMROVING AGAIN BRINGING BACK THE 3HR AVERAGE DT AT 5.5 (RAW DT AT
00Z AT 6.0). THE INTENSITY IS STILL SET AT 95 KT AND SHORT TERM
INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE ON THE TRACK FORECAST : CILIDA IS STILL STEERED
BY A MID-TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-EAST THAT DRIVES
A DUE SOUTH-WESTWARDS MOTION UNTIL LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING. THEN,
WITH THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS AND THE
ARRIVAL OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST (SEEN OFF SOUTH-EASTERN
AUSTRAL AFRICA IN WV IMAGERY), CILIDA SHOULD SLOW DOWN WHILE
GRADUALLY TURNING SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS TONIGHT AND THEN
SOUTH-EASTWARD AS IT WILL ACCELERATE SATURDAY. THE MODEL DISPERSION
REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW, SPECIALLY REGARDS TO CROSS TRACK SPREAD. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST INCLUDE LAST 18Z CYCLES OF IFS AND GFS (AT
LEAST THE PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK DOWN TO 20S).

THE SHEAR HAS STRATED TO EASE (15 KT AT 21Z ACCORDING TO THE CIMSS)
AS THE SYSTEM MOVE CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND BENEFIT FROM
VERY GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS UNTIL SATURDAY (WITH A VERY GOOD
UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASED BY TWO OUTFLOW CHANNELS).EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE ARE LIKELY AND COULD MODULATE THE INTENSITY (LOW
PREVISIBILITY BUT M-PERC IS STILL QUITE LOW AT 21Z)

FROM SATURDAY, A STRENGTHENING OF THE WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD
OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND A DRIER MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD TRIGGER
THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, AS IT EVACUATES TOWARDS THE
MID-LATITUDES. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS
UPPER TROUGH THAT SHOULD EVENTUALLY CATCH UP, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN
AN EXTRATROPICALISATION PHASE.

CILIDA IS NOW A VERY DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS POSING A
POTENTIAL THREAT TO THE MASCARENES ISLANDS (MAINLY MAURITIUS AND
RODRIGUES ISLANDS). THE INHABITANTS OF THESE ISLANDS ARE INVITED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 210040 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/12/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 21/12/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA) 955 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 58.2 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/21 AT 12 UTC:
15.2 S / 57.4 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 210040
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/12/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 21/12/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA) 955 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 58.2 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/21 AT 12 UTC:
15.2 S / 57.4 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/12/22 AT 00 UTC:
16.4 S / 57.5 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 202100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 13.8S 58.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S 58.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 14.8S 58.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 13.8S 58.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S 58.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 14.8S 58.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 16.1S 58.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 17.7S 58.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 19.5S 59.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 23.2S 62.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 27.0S 66.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 31.4S 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 14.1S 58.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 386 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 07S CONTINUES TO UNDERGO
RAPID INTENSIFICATION UNDER VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL RADIAL OUTFLOW AND
FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS).
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAGGED 10NM
EYE SURROUNDED BY SOMEWHAT ASYMMETRICAL DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING.
INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED EIR AND A 201626Z GPMI 89GHZ IMAGE PINHOLE EYE
FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES IN AGREEMENT OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS). THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE AROUND THE STR AXIS,
TURNING THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY POLEWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER
TAU 36. RAPID INTENSIFICATION WILL CONTINUE IN THE NEAR-TERM AS
CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE. AFTER TAU 72, TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO
EXPERIENCE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. THIS INCREASING SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER COOLER
WATER WILL RESULT IN STEADY WEAKENING IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. TC 07S
IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT MERGES WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND ENCOUNTERS UNFAVORABLE VWS
BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 120. THE NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 26
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 201922 RRA

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/5/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 20/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.9 S / 58.7 E
(TREIZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET CINQUANTE HUIT DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.5/5.5/D 2.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 955 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 280 SO: 310 NO: 90
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 60
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SO: 80 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 40

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 21/12/2018 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 57.5 E, VENT MAX=105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 21/12/2018 18 UTC: 15.9 S / 57.2 E, VENT MAX=105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 22/12/2018 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 57.7 E, VENT MAX=105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 22/12/2018 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX=095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 23/12/2018 06 UTC: 21.0 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 23/12/2018 18 UTC: 22.9 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 24/12/2018 18 UTC: 27.0 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 25/12/2018 18 UTC: 32.4 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=5.5+

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 201922 RRA

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/5/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/20 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9 S / 58.7 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL
SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 2.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 955 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 280 SW: 310 NW: 90
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 40

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/21 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 57.5 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2018/12/21 18 UTC: 15.9 S / 57.2 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2018/12/22 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 57.7 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2018/12/22 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 58.6 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2018/12/23 06 UTC: 21.0 S / 60.1 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2018/12/23 18 UTC: 22.9 S / 61.8 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/12/24 18 UTC: 27.0 S / 65.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/12/25 18 UTC: 32.4 S / 68.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5+

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 201922

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/5/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 20/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.9 S / 58.7 E
(TREIZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET CINQUANTE HUIT DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 5.5/5.5/D 2.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 955 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 280 SO: 310 NO: 90
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 60
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SO: 80 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 40

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 21/12/2018 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 57.5 E, VENT MAX=105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 21/12/2018 18 UTC: 15.9 S / 57.2 E, VENT MAX=105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 22/12/2018 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 57.7 E, VENT MAX=105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 22/12/2018 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX=095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 23/12/2018 06 UTC: 21.0 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 23/12/2018 18 UTC: 22.9 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 24/12/2018 18 UTC: 27.0 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 25/12/2018 18 UTC: 32.4 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=5.5+

LA PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE CONTINUE CE SOIR AVEC UNE STRUCTURE
EN OEIL QUI S'EST BIEN AMELIOREE DEPUIS 15Z (PETIT OEIL ENTOURE DE
SOMMETS TRES FROIDS). LES ANALYSES SUBJECTIVES SONT TOUTES A 5.5 A
18Z ET LE DT MOYENNE SUR 3H EST MEME EN FAIT A 5.7. EN CONSEQUENCE,
L'INTENSITE FINALE EST ESTIMEE A 95 KT.

LE SYSTEME A ACCELERE DEPUIS 15Z SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS FRANCHEMENT
SUD-OUEST.
PAS DE CHANGEMENT SUR LA PHILOSOPHIE DE LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE:
LE SYSTEME CONTINUE SON DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU
SUD-OUEST JUSQU'A DEMAIN, PILOTE PAR UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE
MOYENNE TROOSPHERE CENTREE AU SUD-EST. ENSUITE AVEC LE DECALAGE DE LA
CELLULE DE HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS VERS L'EST ET L'ARRIVEE D'UN THALWEG
DE MOYENNE/HAUTE TROPOSPHERE PAR L'OUEST (VISIBLE EN VAPEUR D'EAU AU
NIVEAU DE L'AFRIQUE AUSTRALE), CILIDA DEVRAIT RALENTIR EN TOURNANT
GRADUELLEMENT VERS SUD-SUD-EST PUIS LE SUD-EST EN ACCELERANT A PARTIR
DE SAMEDI. LA DISPERSION DES MODELES RESTE RELATIVEMENT FAIBLE,
NOTAMMENT LONGITUDINALEMENT. AVEC L'EXPLOITATION DES DERNIERS MODELES
DISPONIBLES, LA PREVISION OFFICIELLE EST LEGEREMENT DECALEE A L'OUEST
SUR LES PREMIERES ECHEANCES AINSI QU'EN FIN D'ECHEANCE.

LE CISAILLEMENT ENCORE MODERE (PRES DE 20 KT D'EST-NORD-EST SELON L
CIMMS A 15Z) VA BAISSER ALORS QUE LE SYSTEME SE RAPPROCHE DE L'AXE DE
LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE ET BENEFICIERA DE TRES BONNES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES JUSQU'A SAMEDI (AVEC NOTAMMENT UNE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE DOPEE PAR DEUX CANAUX D'EVACUATIONS). A PARTIR DE SAMEDI,
UNE HAUSSE SIGNIFICATIVE DU CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST NORD-OUEST A L'AVANT
D'UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE ET UN ENVIRONNEMENT PLUS SEC EN MOYENNE TROPO
DEVRAIT LANCER L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME, TANDIS QU'IL S'EVACUE
VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES. EN TOUTE FIN D'ECHEANCE, SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DU THALWEG D'ALTITUDE QUI FINIT PAR LE RATTRAPER, LE
SYSTEME POURRAIT ENTAMER UNE PHASE D'EXTRATROPICALISATION.

CE SYSTEME QUI EST MAINTENANT TRES DANGEREUX PRESENTE UNE MENACE
POTENTIELLE POUR L'ARCHIPEL DES MASCAREIGNES (PRINCIPALEMENT ILES
MAURICE ET RODRIGUES). LES HABITANTS DE CES ILES SONT INVITES A
SUIVRE ATTENTIVEMENT L'EVOLUTION DE LA SITUATION.

DEUX CYCLONES TROPICAUX SONT ACTIFS EN SIMULTANE SUR LE BASSIN. LA
DERNIERE FOIS QUE CELA S'EST PRODUIT, C'ETAIT IL Y A 5 ANS JOUR POUR
JOUR AVEC AMARA ET BRUCE (DECEMBRE 2013).=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 201922

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/5/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/20 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9 S / 58.7 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL
SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 2.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 955 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 280 SW: 310 NW: 90
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 40

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/21 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 57.5 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2018/12/21 18 UTC: 15.9 S / 57.2 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2018/12/22 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 57.7 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2018/12/22 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 58.6 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2018/12/23 06 UTC: 21.0 S / 60.1 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2018/12/23 18 UTC: 22.9 S / 61.8 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/12/24 18 UTC: 27.0 S / 65.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/12/25 18 UTC: 32.4 S / 68.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5+

RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS STILL UNDERWAY WITH AN IMPROVING ALTHOUGH
STILL SOMEWHAT FLUCTUATING EYE PATTERN (SMALL EYE SURROUNDING BY VERY
COLD CLOUD TOPS). LATEST SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ARE ALL AT 5.5 AT 18Z
AND IN FACT THE 3H AVERAGE DT NUMBER IS AT 5.7. THEREFORE THE
INTENSITY IS SET AT 95 KT.

THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED DUE SOUTHWESTWARDS AT SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD
MOTION.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE ON THE TRACK FORECAST : CILIDA IS STILL STEERED
BY A MID-TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-EAST THAT DRIVES
A GENERALLY SOUTH-WESTWARD MOTION UNTIL FRIDAY. THEN, WITH THE
EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS AND THE ARRIVAL
OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST (SEEN OVER AUSTRAL AFRICA IN WV
IMAGERY), CILIDA SHOULD SLOW DOWN WHILE GRADUALLY TURNING
SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS AND THEN SOUTH-EASTWARD AS IT WILL ACCELERATE
SATURDAY. THE MODEL DISPERSION REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW, SPECIALLY
REGARDS TO CROSS TRACK SPREAD. ACCORDING TO LATEST MODELS CYCLES, THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED WESTWARDS AT SHORT RANGE AND
LONG RANGE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE STILL MODERATE EAST-NORTH-EASTERLY CONSTRAINT (NEAR 20 KT
ACCORDING TO CIMSS DATA) WILL EASE AS THE SYSTEM MOVE CLOSER TO THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND BENEFIT FROM VERY GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
UNTIL SATURDAY (WITH A VERY GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASED BY TWO
OUTFLOW CHANNELS). FROM SATURDAY, A STRENGTHENING OF THE
WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND A DRIER
MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD TRIGGER THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, AS
IT EVACUATES TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD,
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH THAT SHOULD EVENTUALLY CATCH
UP, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN AN EXTRATROPICALISATION PHASE.

THIS VERY DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSING A POTENTIAL THREAT TO
THE MASCARENES ISLANDS (MAINLY MAURITIUS AND RODRIGUES ISLANDS). THE
INHABITANTS OF THESE ISLANDS ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF CILIDA.

THE LAST TIME THAT TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES WERE PRESENT AT THE SAME
TIME OVER THE BASIN WAS 5 YEARS AGO (SAME DATE) WITH TC AMARA AND
BRUCE (DECEMBER 2013).=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 201844 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/12/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 20/12/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA) 955 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9 S / 58.7 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/21 AT 06 UTC:
14.9 S / 57.5 E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 201844
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/12/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 20/12/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA) 955 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9 S / 58.7 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/21 AT 06 UTC:
14.9 S / 57.5 E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/12/21 AT 18 UTC:
15.9 S / 57.2 E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 201500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 13.2S 59.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S 59.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 14.1S 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 13.2S 59.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S 59.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 14.1S 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 15.4S 58.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.8S 58.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 18.5S 59.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.1S 62.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 26.0S 65.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 30.3S 68.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 58.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CILIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 427 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 07S IS UNDERGOING RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (INCREASING APPROXIMATELY 55 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS) UNDER THE VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL INFLUENCES OF VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 28 AND 29
DEGREES CELSIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAGGED 18NM EYE WHILE A 201123Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE REVEALS
TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW. THE SYSTEM IS
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REORIENT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD, TURNING THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY POLEWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD.
TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT MERGES
WITH THE TROUGH BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 120. RAPID INTENSIFICATION
WILL CONTINUE IN THE NEAR-TERM AS CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE.
AFTER TAU 72, TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. THIS
INCREASING SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER WILL RESULT IN STEADY
WEAKENING IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. THE NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
201200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND
211500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 201231 RRA

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/5/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 20/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 15 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.2 S / 59.2 E
(TREIZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE NEUF DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.5/4.5/D 2.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 978 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :41 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 280 SO: 190 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 160 SE: 220 SO: 160 NO: 160
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 21/12/2018 00 UTC: 14.0 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 21/12/2018 12 UTC: 15.0 S / 57.7 E, VENT MAX=095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 22/12/2018 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX=100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 22/12/2018 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 58.5 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 23/12/2018 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 23/12/2018 12 UTC: 22.5 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 24/12/2018 12 UTC: 26.1 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
120H: 25/12/2018 12 UTC: 30.6 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=4.5+

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 201231 RRA

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/5/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/20 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.2 S / 59.2 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL
TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 2.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :41 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 280 SW: 190 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 160 SE: 220 SW: 160 NW: 160
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/21 00 UTC: 14.0 S / 58.3 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/12/21 12 UTC: 15.0 S / 57.7 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2018/12/22 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 57.8 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2018/12/22 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 58.5 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2018/12/23 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 59.7 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2018/12/23 12 UTC: 22.5 S / 61.9 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/12/24 12 UTC: 26.1 S / 65.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/12/25 12 UTC: 30.6 S / 69.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5+

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 201231

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/5/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 20/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 15 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.2 S / 59.2 E
(TREIZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE NEUF DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.5/4.5/D 2.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 978 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :41 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 280 SO: 190 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 160 SE: 220 SO: 160 NO: 160
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 21/12/2018 00 UTC: 14.0 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 21/12/2018 12 UTC: 15.0 S / 57.7 E, VENT MAX=095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 22/12/2018 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX=100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 22/12/2018 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 58.5 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 23/12/2018 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 23/12/2018 12 UTC: 22.5 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 24/12/2018 12 UTC: 26.1 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
120H: 25/12/2018 12 UTC: 30.6 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=4.5+

UNE PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE EST EN COURS (+35KT SUR LES
DERNIERES 24H). L'OEIL EST RESTE VISIBLE MAIS DECHIQUETE SUR LES
IMAGES VISIBLES. L'ANALYSE DVORAK EST PLUTOT EN BON ACCORD AVEC LES
ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES. LES IMAGES
MICROONDES DE LA PASSE SSMI DE 1123Z MONTRENT UNE STRUCTURE INTERNE
COMPACTE. L'ANNEAU DE CONVECTION N'EST PAS ENCORE TOTALEMENT FERME
SUR L'IMAGE 85GHZ MAIS LA STRUCTURE EST D'ORES ET DEJA SOLIDE.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT SUR LA PHILOSOPHIE DE LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE:
LE SYSTEME CONTINUE SON DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU
SUD-OUEST JUSQU'A VENDREDI, PILOTE PAR UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE
MOYENNE TROOSPHERE CENTREE AU SUD-EST. ENSUITE AVEC LE DECALAGE DE LA
CELLULE DE HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS VERS L'EST ET L'ARRIVEE D'UN THALWEG
DE MOYENNE/HAUTE TROPOSPHERE PAR L'OUEST, KENANGA DEVRAIT RALENTIR EN
TOURNANT GRADUELLEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST, PUIS ACCELERER A PARTIR DE
SAMEDI. LA DISPERSION DES MODELES RESTE RELATIVEMENT FAIBLE. A NOTER
QUE LE RESEAU DE 00Z DE LA PREVISION DETERMINISTE ET ENSEMBLISTE DU
CEP S'EST DECALEE VERS L'OUEST, ET PROPOSE DESORMAIS UN PASSAGE PLUS
PRES DE L'ILE MAURICE. EN ATTENDANT UNE CONFIRMATION DE CETTE
TENDANCE DANS LES PROCHAINS RESEAUX, LA PREVISION OFFICIELLE RESTE
PROCHE D'UN CONSENSUS GLOBAL PRENANT EGALEMENT EN COMPTE LES AUTRES
MODELES DISPONIBLES, UN PEU PLUS A L'EST.

MALGRE DES CONDITIONS D'ALTITUDE ENCORE MOYENNES, LE SYSTEME PROFITE
DE SON DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST POUR COMPENSER LES EFFETS DU
CISAILLEMENT D'ALTITUDE (TOUJOURS 15KT SELON LES DONNEES CIMSS) ET
PROFITER DE LA DIVERGENCE DU QUADRANT SUD-OUEST. DES CE SOIR, LE
SYSTEME SE PLACE SOUS L'AXE DE LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE ET BENEFICIERA
DE TRES BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES JUSQU'A SAMEDI (AVEC
NOTAMMENT UNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE DOPEE PAR DEUX CANAUX
D'EVACUATIONS). A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, UNE HAUSSE SIGNIFICATIVE DU
CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST NORD-OUEST A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE ET
UN ENVIRONNEMENT PLUS SEC EN MOYENNE TROPO DEVRAIT LANCER
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME, TANDIS QU'IL S'EVACUE VERS LES MOYENNES
LATITUDES. EN TOUTE FIN D'ECHEANCE, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DU THALWEG
D'ALTITUDE QUI FINIT PAR LE RATTRAPER, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT ENTAMER
UNE PHASE D'EXTRATROPICALISATION.

CE SYSTEME PEUT POTENTIELLEMENT MENACER L'ARCHIPEL DES MASCAREIGNES
(PRINCIPALEMENT ILES MAURICE ET RODRIGUE) EN FIN DE SEMAINE. LES
HABITANTS DE CES ILES SONT INVITES A SUIVRE L'EVOLUTION DE LA
SITUATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 201231

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/5/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/20 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.2 S / 59.2 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL
TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 2.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :41 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 280 SW: 190 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 160 SE: 220 SW: 160 NW: 160
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/21 00 UTC: 14.0 S / 58.3 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/12/21 12 UTC: 15.0 S / 57.7 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2018/12/22 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 57.8 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2018/12/22 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 58.5 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2018/12/23 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 59.7 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2018/12/23 12 UTC: 22.5 S / 61.9 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/12/24 12 UTC: 26.1 S / 65.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/12/25 12 UTC: 30.6 S / 69.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5+

A RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY (+35KT OVER THE
LAST 24H). THE EYE REMAINED VISIBLE BUT RAGGED ON THE VIS IMAGES. THE
DVORAK ANALYSIS IS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OBJECTIVE AND
SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES AVAILABLE. THE MW IMAGES FROM THE 1123Z SSMI
SWATH SHOWS A COMPACT INNER-CORE STRUCTURE. ON THE 85GHZ, THE
CONVECTION RING IS NOT TOTALLY CLOSED YET BUT THE EXHIBITED STRUCTURE
IS ALREADY STRONG.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE ON THE TRACK FORECAST : CILIDA IS STILL STEERED
BY A MID-TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-EAST THAT DRIVES
A GENERALLY SOUTH-WESTWARD MOTION UNTIL FRIDAY. THEN, WITH THE
EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS AND THE ARRIVAL
OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST, KENANGA SHOULD SLOW DOWN WHILE
GRADUALLY TURNING SOUTH-EASTWARD, THEN ACCELERATE SATURDAY. THE MODEL
DISPERSION REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 00Z
ECMWF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE FORECAST HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD AND
SUGGEST A TRACK CLOSER TO MAURITIUS. WHILE WAITING FOR A CONFIRMATION
OF THIS TENDENCY IN THE NEXT MODEL RUNS, THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
REMAINS CLOSER TO THE GLOBAL CONSENSUS ALSO TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE
OTHER NWP GUIDANCES, A LITTLE FARTHER FROM THE MAURITIAN COASTS.

DESPITE RATHER NEUTRAL UPPER CONDITIONS CURRENTLY, THE SYSTEM TAKES
ADVANTAGE OF ITS SOUTH-WESTWARD MOTION TO COMPENSATE THE EFFECTS OF
THE UPPER SHEAR (15 KT ACCORDING TO CIMSS DATA) AND BENEFITS FROM THE
GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT. FROM TONIGHT,
THE SYSTEM WILL BE PLACED UNDER THE AXIS OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL UPPER
RIDGE AND BENEFIT FROM VERY GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS UNTIL
SATURDAY (WITH A VERY GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASED BY TWO OUTFLOW
CHANNELS). FROM SATURDAY, A STRENGTHENING OF THE WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY
SHEAR AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND A DRIER MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD TRIGGER THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, AS IT EVACUATES TOWARDS
THE MID-LATITUDES. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THIS UPPER TROUGH THAT SHOULD EVENTUALLY CATCH UP, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
BEGIN AN EXTRATROPICALISATION PHASE.

THIS SYSTEM WILL POTENTIALLY POSING A THREAT TO THE MASCARENES
ISLANDS THIS WEEK-END (MAINLY MAURITIUS AND RODRIGUES ISLANDS). THE
INHABITANTS OF THESE ISLANDS ARE INVITED TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 201218
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/12/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 20/12/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (CILIDA) 978 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.2 S / 59.2 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 85 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/21 AT 00 UTC:
14.0 S / 58.3 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/12/21 AT 12 UTC:
15.0 S / 57.7 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 200632

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/5/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 20/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 15 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.6 S / 59.5 E
(DOUZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET CINQUANTE NEUF DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.0/4.0/D 1.5/18 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :41 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 280 SO: 190 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 20/12/2018 18 UTC: 13.6 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 21/12/2018 06 UTC: 15.0 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 21/12/2018 18 UTC: 16.1 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX=095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 22/12/2018 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX=100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 22/12/2018 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 59.6 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 23/12/2018 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 24/12/2018 06 UTC: 24.4 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
120H: 25/12/2018 06 UTC: 29.0 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=4.0+

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6H, LA BANDE INCURVEE S'EST TOTALEMENT
ENROULEE AUTOUR DU CENTRE ET UN POINT CHAUD EST D'ABORD APPARU SUR
LES IMAGES IR. A 05Z, UN OEIL DECHIQUETE EST APPARU SUR L'IMAGERIE
VISIBLE. EN IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDES, UN GAIN D'ORGANISATION CERTAIN EST
VISIBLE SUR LES DONNEES DES PASSES SSMIS DE 0120Z ET DE 0223Z. EN
85GHZ, LA CONSOLIDATION DU COEUR EST DEJA BIEN AVANCEE. EN 37GHZ, UN
ANNEAU FERME EST DEJA PRESENT ET INDIQUE QU'UNE PHASE
D'INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE A PROBABLEMENT DEMARRE. LA PASSE ASCAT DE
0515Z A COUVERT LE CENTRE ET LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST ET A PERMIS UNE
REACTUALISATION DES EXTENSIONS DE VENT.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT SUR LA PHILOSOPHIE DE LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE:
SUR LA FACE NORD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE BASSE ET MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT CONTINUER SON DEPLACEMENT EN
DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD-OUEST JUSQU'A VENDREDI. ENSUITE AVEC LE
DECALAGE DE LA CELLULE DE HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS VERS L'EST ET L'ARRIVEE
D'UN THALWEG DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE PAR L'OUEST, KENANGA DEVRAIT
RALENTIR EN TOURNANT GRADUELLEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST, PUIS ACCELERER A
PARTIR DE SAMEDI. LA DISPERSION LONGITUDINALE DES MODELES EST FAIBLE
MAIS IL EXISTE ENCORE UNE CERTAINE INCERTITUDE SUR LA VITESSE DE
DEPLACEMENT A PARTIR DE SAMEDI.

MALGRE LES CONDITIONS D'ALTITUDE ASSEZ DEFAVORABLES A PRIORI, LE
SYSTEME PROFITE DE SON DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD-OUEST POUR COMPENSER
LES EFFETS DU CISAILLEMENT D'ALTITUDE (15KT SELON LES DONNEES CIMSS)
ET PROFITER DE LA DIVERGENCE DANS SON QUADRANT SUD-OUEST. DES CE
SOIR, LE SYSTEME SE PLACE SOUS L'AXE DE LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE ET
BENEFICIERA DE TRES BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES JUSQU'A
SAMEDI (AVEC NOTAMMENT UNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE DOPEE PAR DEUX
CANAUX D'EVACUATIONS). UNE PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE EST ENCORE
ENVISAGEE JUSQU'A VENDREDI. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, UNE HAUSSE DU
CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST NORD-OUEST A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE ET
UN ENVIRONNEMENT PLUS SEC EN MOYENNE TROPO DEVRAIT LANCER
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME, TANDIS QU'IL S'EVACUE VERS LES MOYENNES
LATITUDES.

CE SYSTEME A LE POTENTIEL DE DEVENIR UN SYSTEME DANGEREUX POUVANT
POSER UNE MENACE A L'ARCHIPEL DES MASCAREIGNES (PRINCIPALEMENT ILES
MAURICE ET RODRIGUE) EN FIN DE SEMAINE. LES HABITANTS DE CES ILES
SONT INVITES A SUIVRE L'EVOLUTION DE LA SITUATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 200632

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/5/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/20 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.6 S / 59.5 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.5/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :41 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 280 SW: 190 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/20 18 UTC: 13.6 S / 58.6 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/12/21 06 UTC: 15.0 S / 57.8 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/12/21 18 UTC: 16.1 S / 57.8 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2018/12/22 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 58.4 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2018/12/22 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 59.6 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2018/12/23 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 60.9 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/12/24 06 UTC: 24.4 S / 64.4 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/12/25 06 UTC: 29.0 S / 67.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, FILLING UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CURVED BAND TOTALLY WRAPPED AROUND THE
CENTER AND A WARM SPOT APPEARED ON THE IR IMAGERY. AT 05Z, A RAGGED
EYE APPEARED ON THE VIS IMAGES. ON THE AVAILABLE MW IMAGES (0120Z AND
0223Z SSMIS SWATHS), THE INNER ORGANISATION CLEARLY IMPROVED. ON
85GHZ IMAGES, THE INNER-CORE CONSOLIDATION IS WELL UNDERWAY. ON 37GHZ
IMAGES, A CLOSED CONVECTION RING IS ALREADY DEPICTED AND INDICATES
THAT A RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE IS ABOUT TO BEGIN (OR HAS ALREADY
BEGAN). THE 0515Z ASCAT SWATH COVERED THE CENTER AN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND ALLOW A GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND EXTENSIONS
ESTIMATES.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE ON THE TRACK FORECAST : CILIDA IS STILL STEERED
BY A LOW/MID-TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-EAST THAT
DRIVES A GENERALLY SOUTH-WESTWARD MOTION UNTIL FRIDAY. THEN WITH THE
EASTWARD SHIFHT OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS AND THE ARRIVAL
OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST, KENANGA SHOULD SLOW DOWN WHILE
GRADUALLY TURNING SOUTH-EASTWARD, THEN ACCELERATE SATURDAY. THE
CROSS-TRACK DISPERSION IS LOW BUT THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS
QUITE UNCERTAIN FROM SATURDAY.

DESPITE RATHER UNFAVORABLE UPPER CONDITIONS A PRIORI, THE SYSTEM
TAKES ADVANTAGE OF ITS SOUTH-WESTWARD MOTION TO COMPENSATE THE
EFFECTS OF THE UPPER SHEAR (15 KT ACCORDING TO CIMSS DATA) AND
BENEFIT FROM THE GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
FROM TONIGHT, THE SYSTEM WILL BE PLACED UNDER THE AXIS OF THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL UPPER RIDGE AND BENEFIT FROM VERY GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS UNTIL SATURDAY (WITH A VERY GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE
INCREASED BY TWO OUTFLOW CHANNELS). RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS STILL
EXPECTED UNTIL FRIDAY. FROM SATURDAY, A STRENGTHENING OF THE
WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND A DRIER
MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD TRIGGER THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, AS
IT EVACUATES TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES.

THIS SYSTEM IS POTENTIALLY POSING A THREAT TO THE MASCARENES ISLANDS
THIS WEEK-END (MAINLY MAURITIUS AND RODRIGUES ISLANDS). THE
INHABITANTS OF THESE ISLANDS ARE INVITED TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 200620
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/12/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 20/12/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CILIDA) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.6 S / 59.5 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 250 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 105 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/20 AT 18 UTC:
13.6 S / 58.6 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/12/21 AT 06 UTC:
15.0 S / 57.8 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 200300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 12.0S 60.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S 60.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 12.7S 59.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 13.7S 58.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 200133

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/5/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 20/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.4 S / 59.7 E
(DOUZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET CINQUANTE NEUF DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 260 SO: 170 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 70
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 20/12/2018 12 UTC: 13.4 S / 58.9 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 21/12/2018 00 UTC: 14.2 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 21/12/2018 12 UTC: 15.3 S / 57.7 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 22/12/2018 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 57.9 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 22/12/2018 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 58.8 E, VENT MAX=095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 23/12/2018 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 59.9 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 24/12/2018 00 UTC: 23.5 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
120H: 25/12/2018 00 UTC: 27.1 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=4.0-

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6H, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE S'EST ENCORE
AMELIOREE AVEC UNE CONVECTION PROFONDE QUI S'EST BIEN CONSOLISEE PRES
DU CENTRE AVEC UNE COURBURE DE PLUS EN PLUS PRONONCEE. A NOTER QUE
L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITA EST LA GEREMENT SUPERIEURE A L'ESTIMATION
D'INTENSITE DES TECHNIQUES OBJECTIVES.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT SUR LA PHILOSOPHIE DE LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE:
SUR LA FACE NORD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT CONTINUER SON DEPLACEMENT EN
DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD-OUEST JUSQU'A VENDREDI L'INSTALLATION
DURABLE D'UN TALWEG DE HAUTE A MOYENNE TROPO AU SUD DES MASCAREIGNES
A PARTIR DE LA FIN DE SEMAINE VA DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS RALENTIR LA
VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME PUIS GRADUELLEMENT ORIENTER LA
TRAJECTOIRE AU SUD-SUD-EST EN ACCELERANT. LA PHILOSOPHIE DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE EST EN BON ACCORD ENTRE LES DIFFERENTS MODELES (NOTAMMENT
IFS ET GFS) MAIS IL EXISTE UNE INCERTITUDE SUR LA VITESSE DE
DEPLACEMENT LORS DE L'ACCELERATION VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST.

AVEC LE DEPLACEMENT PLUTOT MERIDIEN ENTAME, LE SYSTEME VA SE METTRE
EN PHASE AVEC LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE ET BENEFICIERA DE TRES BONNES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES JUSQU'A SAMEDI (AVEC NOTAMMENT UNE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE DOPEE PAR DEUX CANAUX D'EVACUATIONS). D'ICI
VENDREDI, UNE PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE RESTE POSSIBLE. EN FIN
D'ECHEANCE, UNE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST NORD-OUEST ET UN
ENVIRONNEMENT PLUS SEC EN MOYENNE TROPO, POURRAIT COMMENCER A
AFFECTER L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME, PRESENTANT TOUTEFOIS UNE BONNE
RESISTANCE SUITE A UN DEPLACEMENT ASSEZ RAPIDE.

CE SYSTEME A LE POTENTIEL DE DEVENIR UN SYSTEME DANGEREUX POUVANT
POSER UNE MENACE A L'ARCHIPEL DES MASCAREIGNES EN FIN DE SEMAINE. LES
HABITANTS DE CES ILES SONT INVITES A SUIVRE L'EVOLUTION DE LA
SITUATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 200133

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/5/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/20 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.4 S / 59.7 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL
SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 260 SW: 170 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 70
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/20 12 UTC: 13.4 S / 58.9 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/12/21 00 UTC: 14.2 S / 58.2 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/12/21 12 UTC: 15.3 S / 57.7 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/12/22 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 57.9 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2018/12/22 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 58.8 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2018/12/23 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 59.9 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/12/24 00 UTC: 23.5 S / 63.2 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/12/25 00 UTC: 27.1 S / 67.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED WITH A DEEP
CONVECTION THAT HAS CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE CENTER WITH A CURVATURE
MORE APPARENT. IT IS NOTED THAT THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY
HIGHTER THAN THE OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE.

NO CHANGE FOR THE TRACK FORECAST: OVER THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A
BUILDING MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
ON A GENERAL SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK UP TO FRIDAY. LATER IN THE WEEK A
DEEP UPPER TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE
MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS, RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT AND PERSISTENT BREAK
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEREFORE, THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO SLOW
DOWN FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY ACCELERATING SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE PHILOSOPHY OF THE TRACK FORECAST IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT MODELS (SPECIALLY GFS AND IFS)
HOWEVER THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE VELOCITY OF DISPLACEMENT
DURING ACCELERATION TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.

AS THE SYSTEM WILL GAIN LATITUDES, IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITHIN FAVORABLE TO VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UP
TO SATURDAY (WITH SPECIALLY ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH TWO EFFICIENT OUTFLOW CHANNELS). WITHIN THE NEXT 24H
TO 48H, A RAPID INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LIKELY. FROM SUNDAY AND BEYOND,
INCREASING WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR ALONG WITH A DRYER MID LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD START TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER IT MAY RESIST
DUE TO A RATHER FAST MOVEMENT.

THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A DANGEROUS TROPICAL
CYCLONE AND MAY POSE A THREAT TO THE MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS LATER THIS
WEEK. INHABITANTS OF THOSE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 200041 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/12/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 20/12/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CILIDA) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.4 S / 59.7 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 130 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/20 AT 12 UTC:
13.4 S / 58.9 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/12/21 AT 00 UTC:
14.2 S / 58.2 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 200021
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/12/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 20/12/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CILIDA) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.4 S / 59.7 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 130 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/20 AT 12 UTC:
13.4 S / 58.9 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/12/21 AT 00 UTC:
14.2 S / 58.2 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 191852

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/5/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 19/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.1 S / 60.1 E
(DOUZE DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/18 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 370 SO: 260 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SO: 110 NO: 70



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 20/12/2018 06 UTC: 12.9 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 20/12/2018 18 UTC: 13.9 S / 58.5 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 21/12/2018 06 UTC: 14.6 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX=075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 21/12/2018 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 22/12/2018 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX=095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 22/12/2018 18 UTC: 18.6 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 23/12/2018 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
120H: 24/12/2018 18 UTC: 26.3 S / 66.6 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=3.5-

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6H, DES PUISSANTES POUSSEES DE CONVECTION SE
SONT PRODUITES PRES DU CENTRE. L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE DE SSMIS DE 1410Z
MONTRE LA PRESENCE D'UN ANNEAU DE CONVECTION CYAN A ROSE
IMPRESSIONNANT QUI LAISSE A PENSER QU'UNE PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION
RAPIDE POURRAIT COMMENCER MALGRA UN CISAILLEMENT D'EST ENCORE MODA
RA (20 KT ANALYSE PAR LE CIMSS A 12 UTC).

PAS DE CHANGEMENT SUR LA PHILOSOPHIE DE LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE:
SUR LA FACE NORD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT GRADUELLEMENT AMORCER UN DEPLACEMENT
EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD-OUEST JUSQU'A VENDREDI L'INSTALLATION
DURABLE D'UN TALWEG DE HAUTE A MOYENNE TROPO AU SUD DES MASCAREIGNES
A PARTIR DE LA FIN DE SEMAINE VA DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS RALENTIR LA
VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME PUIS GRADUELLEMENT ORIENTER LA
TRAJECTOIRE AU SUD-SUD-EST EN ACCELERANT. LA PHILOSOPHIE DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE EST EN BON ACCORD ENTRE LES DIFFERENTS MODELES (NOTAMMENT
IFS ET GFS) MAIS IL EXISTE UNE INCERTITUDE SUR LA VITESSE DE
DEPLACEMENT LORS DE L'ACCELERATION VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST.

AVEC LE DEPLACEMENT PLUTOT MERIDIEN ENTAME, LE SYSTEME VA SE METTRE
EN PHASE AVEC LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE ET BENEFICIERA DE TRES BONNES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES JUSQU'A SAMEDI (AVEC NOTAMMENT UNE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE DOPEE PAR DEUX CANAUX D'EVACUATIONS). D'ICI
VENDREDI, UNE PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE RESTE POSSIBLE. EN FIN
D'ECHEANCE, UNE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST NORD-OUEST ET UN
ENVIRONNEMENT PLUS SEC EN MOYENNE TROPO, POURRAIT COMMENCER A
AFFECTER L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME, PRESENTANT TOUTEFOIS UNE BONNE
RESISTANCE SUITE A UN DEPLACEMENT ASSEZ RAPIDE.

CE SYSTEME A LE POTENTIEL DE DEVENIR UN SYSTEME DANGEREUX POUVANT
POSER UNE MENACE A L'ARCHIPEL DES MASCAREIGNES EN FIN DE SEMAINE. LES
HABITANTS DE CES ILES SONT INVITES A SUIVRE L'EVOLUTION DE LA
SITUATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 191852

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/5/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/19 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.1 S / 60.1 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL ONE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 370 SW: 260 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SW: 110 NW: 70



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/20 06 UTC: 12.9 S / 59.4 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/12/20 18 UTC: 13.9 S / 58.5 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/12/21 06 UTC: 14.6 S / 58.2 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/12/21 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 58.2 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/12/22 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 58.6 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2018/12/22 18 UTC: 18.6 S / 59.7 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/12/23 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 63.2 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2018/12/24 18 UTC: 26.3 S / 66.6 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, SOME STRONG BURSTS OF CONVECTION HAS OCCURED
NEAR THE CENTRE. 1410Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOW AN
IMPRESSIVE CYAN TO ROSE RING OF CONVECTION THAT COULD SUGGEST THAT A
RAPID INTENSIFICATION BEGINS DESPITE THE MODERATE EASTERLY WINDSHEAR
(ANALYSED AT 20KT AT 1200Z THANKS TO CIMSS DATA)

NO CHANGE FOR THE TRACK FORECAST: OVER THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A
BUILDING MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
RESUME A GENERAL SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK UP TO FRIDAY. LATER IN THE WEEK
A DEEP UPPER TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE
MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS, RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT AND PERSISTENT BREAK
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEREFORE, THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO SLOW
DOWN FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY ACCELERATING SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE PHILOSOPHY OF THE TRACK FORECAST IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT MODELS (SPECIALLY GFS AND IFS)
HOWEVER THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE VELOCITY OF DISPLACEMENT
DURING ACCELERATION TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.

AS THE SYSTEM WILL GAIN LATITUDES, IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITHIN FAVORABLE TO VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UP
TO SATURDAY (WITH SPECIALLY ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH TWO EFFICIENT OUTFLOW CHANNELS). WITHIN THE NEXT 24H
TO 48H, A RAPID INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LIKELY. FROM SUNDAY AND BEYOND,
INCREASING WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR ALONG WITH A DRYER MID LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD START TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER IT MAY RESIST
DUE TO A RATHER FAST MOVEMENT.

THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A DANGEROUS TROPICAL
CYCLONE AND MAY POSE A THREAT TO THE MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS LATER THIS
WEEK. INHABITANTS OF THOSE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 191316 CCA
***************CORRECTIF**************

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/5/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 19/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 11.7 S / 60.5 E
(ONZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 996 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 310 SO: 220 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SO: 110 NO: 60



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 20/12/2018 00 UTC: 12.5 S / 59.6 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 20/12/2018 12 UTC: 13.3 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 21/12/2018 00 UTC: 14.1 S / 57.7 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 21/12/2018 12 UTC: 14.8 S / 57.3 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 22/12/2018 00 UTC: 15.6 S / 57.4 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 22/12/2018 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX=095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 23/12/2018 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
120H: 24/12/2018 12 UTC: 23.9 S / 64.3 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=2.5+

CORRECTIF SUR ANALYSE DVORAK.

SOUS L'EFFET DU CYCLE DIURNE, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE A CONNU UN
MINIMUM CET APRES-MIDI AVANT DE RECOMMENCER A SE DEVELOPPER
RECEMMENT. L'ORGANISATION DE BASSES COUCHES RESTE BONNE COMME VUE SUR
L'IMAGERIE 37 GHZ DE 0934Z. LA PASS SCATSAT DE 0407Z CE MATIN VALIDE
LA PRESENCE DE COUP DE VENT AU SEIN DE LA CIRCULATION. A 12 TU, LES
ESTIMATIONS SUBJECTIVES SONT A 2.5 ET 3.0 ET L'ADT EST A 2.6.
L'INTENSITE EST MAINTENUE A 35 KT.

LE CISAILLEMENT D'EST-SUD-EST EST MODERE, ANALYSE A 15-20 KT PAR LE
CIMSS A 09 UTC.

LE SYSTEME S'EST DEPLACE VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST AUX COURS DES
DERNIERES SIX HEURES. PEU DE CHANGEMENT SUR LA PHILOSOPHIE DE LA
PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE: SUR LA FACE NORD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT GRADUELLEMENT
AMORCER UN DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD-OUEST JUSQU'A
VENDREDI L'INSTALLATION DURABLE D'UN TALWEG DE HAUTE A MOYENNE TROPO
AU SUD DES MASCAREIGNES A PARTIR DE LA FIN DE SEMAINE VA DANS UN
PREMIER TEMPS RALENTIR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME PUIS
GRADUELLEMENT ORIENTER LA TRAJECTOIRE AU SUD-SUD-EST EN ACCELERANT.
LA PHILOSOPHIE DE LA TRAJECTOIRE EST EN BON ACCORD ENTRE LES
DIFFERENTS MODELES (NOTAMMENT IFS ET GFS) MAIS IL EXISTE UNE
INCERTITUDE SUR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT LORS DE L'ACCELERATION VERS
LE SUD-SUD-EST.

LA CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE ACTUELLE POURRAIT ENCORE CONTRARIE UN PEU LE
DEVELOPPEMENT AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 12 A 24H. UN RYTHME
CLIMATOLOGIQUE DE DEVELOPPEMENT RESTE TOUTEFOIS ENVISAGE. AVEC LE
DEPLACEMENT PLUTOT MERIDIEN ENTAME, LE SYSTEME VA SE METTRE EN PHASE
AVEC LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE ET BENEFICIERA DE TRES BONNES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES JUSQU'A SAMEDI (AVEC NOTAMMENT UNE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE DOPEE PAR DEUX CANAUX D'EVACUATIONS). D'ICI VENDREDI, UNE
PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE RESTE POSSIBLE. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, UNE
HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST NORD-OUEST ET UN ENVIRONNEMENT PLUS
SEC EN MOYENNE TROPO, POURRAIT COMMENCER A AFFECTER L'INTENSITE DU
SYSTEME, PRESENTANT TOUTEFOIS UNE BONNE RESISTANCE SUITE A UN
DEPLACEMENT ASSEZ RAPIDE.

CE SYSTEME A LE POTENTIEL DE DEVENIR UN SYSTEME DANGEREUX POUVANT
POSER UNE MENACE A L'ARCHIPEL DES MASCAREIGNES EN FIN DE SEMAINE. LES
HABITANTS DE CES ILES SONT INVITES A SUIVRE L'EVOLUTION DE LA
SITUATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 191316 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/5/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/19 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.7 S / 60.5 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 310 SW: 220 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 110 NW: 60



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/20 00 UTC: 12.5 S / 59.6 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/12/20 12 UTC: 13.3 S / 58.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/12/21 00 UTC: 14.1 S / 57.7 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/12/21 12 UTC: 14.8 S / 57.3 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/12/22 00 UTC: 15.6 S / 57.4 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2018/12/22 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 58.2 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/12/23 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 60.7 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2018/12/24 12 UTC: 23.9 S / 64.3 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

CORRECTIVE FOR THE DVORAK ANALYSIS.

WITH THE MINIMAL DIURNAL CYCLE, THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT START TO INCREASE
VERY RECENTLY. THE LOW LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS IMPRESSIVE AS SEEN ON 37
GHZ IMAGERY OF 0934Z. THE SCATSAT PASS OF 0407Z THIS MORNING SHOW
GALE FORCE WINDS IN MOST PART OF THE CIRCULATION. AT 12 UTC,
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE AT 2.5 AND 3.0 AND ADT IS AT 2.6. THE
INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KT.

THE WINDSHEAR IS ANALYZED AT 15-20 KT AT 0900 UTC FROM THE
EAST-SOUTH-EAST (CIMSS DATA).

THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED SLOWLY SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARDS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. NO MAJOR CHANGE FOR THE TRACK FORECAST: OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
EDGE OF A BUILDING MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO RESUME A GENERAL SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK UP TO FRIDAY. LATER
IN THE WEEK A DEEP UPPER TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH
OF THE MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS, RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT AND
PERSISTENT BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEREFORE, THE TRACK IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY ACCELERATING
SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE PHILOSOPHY OF THE
TRACK FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT MODELS
(SPECIALLY GFS AND IFS) HOWEVER THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE
VELOCITY OF DISPLACEMENT DURING ACCELERATION TOWARDS THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.

THE CURRENT MODERATE EASTERLY CONSTRAINT MAY IMPED RAPID DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24H (STILL CLIMO RATE EXPECTED). AS THE SYSTEM
WILL GAIN LATITUDES, IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WITHIN FAVORABLE TO VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UP TO SATURDAY
(WITH SPECIALLY ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH TWO
EFFICIENT OUTFLOW CHANNELS). WITHIN THE NEXT 24H TO 48H, A RAPID
INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LIKELY. FROM SUNDAY AND BEYOND, INCREASING
WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR ALONG WITH A DRYER MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD START TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER IT MAY RESIST DUE TO A
RATHER FAST MOVEMENT.

THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A DANGEROUS TROPICAL
CYCLONE AND MAY POSE A THREAT TO THE MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS LATER THIS
WEEK. INHABITANTS OF THOSE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 191305

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/5/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 19/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 11.7 S / 60.5 E
(ONZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 996 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 310 SO: 220 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SO: 110 NO: 60



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 20/12/2018 00 UTC: 12.5 S / 59.6 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 20/12/2018 12 UTC: 13.3 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 21/12/2018 00 UTC: 14.1 S / 57.7 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 21/12/2018 12 UTC: 14.8 S / 57.3 E, VENT MAX=080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 22/12/2018 00 UTC: 15.6 S / 57.4 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 22/12/2018 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX=095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 23/12/2018 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
120H: 24/12/2018 12 UTC: 23.9 S / 64.3 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=2.5+

SOUS L'EFFET DU CYCLE DIURNE, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE A CONNU UN
MINIMUM CET APRES-MIDI AVANT DE RECOMMENCER A SE DEVELOPPER
RECEMMENT. L'ORGANISATION DE BASSES COUCHES RESTE BONNE COMME VUE SUR
L'IMAGERIE 37 GHZ DE 0934Z. LA PASS SCATSAT DE 0407Z CE MATIN VALIDE
LA PRESENCE DE COUP DE VENT AU SEIN DE LA CIRCULATION. A 12 TU, LES
ESTIMATIONS SUBJECTIVES SONT A 2.5 ET 3.0 ET L'ADT EST A 2.6.
L'INTENSITE EST MAINTENUE A 35 KT.

LE CISAILLEMENT D'EST-SUD-EST EST MODERE, ANALYSE A 15-20 KT PAR LE
CIMSS A 09 UTC.

LE SYSTEME S'EST DEPLACE VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST AUX COURS DES
DERNIERES SIX HEURES. PEU DE CHANGEMENT SUR LA PHILOSOPHIE DE LA
PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE: SUR LA FACE NORD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT GRADUELLEMENT
AMORCER UN DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD-OUEST JUSQU'A
VENDREDI L'INSTALLATION DURABLE D'UN TALWEG DE HAUTE A MOYENNE TROPO
AU SUD DES MASCAREIGNES A PARTIR DE LA FIN DE SEMAINE VA DANS UN
PREMIER TEMPS RALENTIR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME PUIS
GRADUELLEMENT ORIENTER LA TRAJECTOIRE AU SUD-SUD-EST EN ACCELERANT.
LA PHILOSOPHIE DE LA TRAJECTOIRE EST EN BON ACCORD ENTRE LES
DIFFERENTS MODELES (NOTAMMENT IFS ET GFS) MAIS IL EXISTE UNE
INCERTITUDE SUR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT LORS DE L'ACCELERATION VERS
LE SUD-SUD-EST.

LA CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE ACTUELLE POURRAIT ENCORE CONTRARIE UN PEU LE
DEVELOPPEMENT AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 12 A 24H. UN RYTHME
CLIMATOLOGIQUE DE DEVELOPPEMENT RESTE TOUTEFOIS ENVISAGE. AVEC LE
DEPLACEMENT PLUTOT MERIDIEN ENTAME, LE SYSTEME VA SE METTRE EN PHASE
AVEC LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE ET BENEFICIERA DE TRES BONNES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES JUSQU'A SAMEDI (AVEC NOTAMMENT UNE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE DOPEE PAR DEUX CANAUX D'EVACUATIONS). D'ICI VENDREDI, UNE
PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE RESTE POSSIBLE. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, UNE
HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST NORD-OUEST ET UN ENVIRONNEMENT PLUS
SEC EN MOYENNE TROPO, POURRAIT COMMENCER A AFFECTER L'INTENSITE DU
SYSTEME, PRESENTANT TOUTEFOIS UNE BONNE RESISTANCE SUITE A UN
DEPLACEMENT ASSEZ RAPIDE.

CE SYSTEME A LE POTENTIEL DE DEVENIR UN SYSTEME DANGEREUX POUVANT
POSER UNE MENACE A L'ARCHIPEL DES MASCAREIGNES EN FIN DE SEMAINE. LES
HABITANTS DE CES ILES SONT INVITES A SUIVRE L'EVOLUTION DE LA
SITUATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 191305

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/5/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/19 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.7 S / 60.5 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 310 SW: 220 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 110 NW: 60



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/20 00 UTC: 12.5 S / 59.6 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/12/20 12 UTC: 13.3 S / 58.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/12/21 00 UTC: 14.1 S / 57.7 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/12/21 12 UTC: 14.8 S / 57.3 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/12/22 00 UTC: 15.6 S / 57.4 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2018/12/22 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 58.2 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/12/23 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 60.7 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2018/12/24 12 UTC: 23.9 S / 64.3 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

WITH THE MINIMAL DIURNAL CYCLE, THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT START TO INCREASE
VERY RECENTLY. THE LOW LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS IMPRESSIVE AS SEEN ON 37
GHZ IMAGERY OF 0934Z. THE SCATSAT PASS OF 0407Z THIS MORNING SHOW
GALE FORCE WINDS IN MOST PART OF THE CIRCULATION. AT 12 UTC,
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE AT 2.5 AND 3.0 AND ADT IS AT 2.6. THE
INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KT.

THE WINDSHEAR IS ANALYZED AT 15-20 KT AT 0900 UTC FROM THE
EAST-SOUTH-EAST (CIMSS DATA).

THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED SLOWLY SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARDS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. NO MAJOR CHANGE FOR THE TRACK FORECAST: OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
EDGE OF A BUILDING MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO RESUME A GENERAL SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK UP TO FRIDAY. LATER
IN THE WEEK A DEEP UPPER TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH
OF THE MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS, RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT AND
PERSISTENT BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEREFORE, THE TRACK IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY ACCELERATING
SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE PHILOSOPHY OF THE
TRACK FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT MODELS
(SPECIALLY GFS AND IFS) HOWEVER THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE
VELOCITY OF DISPLACEMENT DURING ACCELERATION TOWARDS THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.

THE CURRENT MODERATE EASTERLY CONSTRAINT MAY IMPED RAPID DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24H (STILL CLIMO RATE EXPECTED). AS THE SYSTEM
WILL GAIN LATITUDES, IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WITHIN FAVORABLE TO VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UP TO SATURDAY
(WITH SPECIALLY ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH TWO
EFFICIENT OUTFLOW CHANNELS). WITHIN THE NEXT 24H TO 48H, A RAPID
INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LIKELY. FROM SUNDAY AND BEYOND, INCREASING
WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR ALONG WITH A DRYER MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD START TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER IT MAY RESIST DUE TO A
RATHER FAST MOVEMENT.

THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A DANGEROUS TROPICAL
CYCLONE AND MAY POSE A THREAT TO THE MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS LATER THIS
WEEK. INHABITANTS OF THOSE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 191220
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/12/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 19/12/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CILIDA) 996 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.7 S / 60.5 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/20 AT 00 UTC:
12.5 S / 59.6 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/12/20 AT 12 UTC:
13.3 S / 58.6 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 190710

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/5/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 19/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 11.2 S / 60.9 E
(ONZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 996 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 310 SO: 220 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SO: 110 NO: 0



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 19/12/2018 18 UTC: 11.9 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 20/12/2018 06 UTC: 12.7 S / 59.0 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 20/12/2018 18 UTC: 13.6 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 21/12/2018 06 UTC: 14.3 S / 57.5 E, VENT MAX=085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 21/12/2018 18 UTC: 15.1 S / 57.6 E, VENT MAX=095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 22/12/2018 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX=100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 23/12/2018 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX=090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
120H: 24/12/2018 06 UTC: 23.9 S / 63.6 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=2.5+

DEPUIS HIER SOIR LE SYSTEME PRESENTE UNE CIRCULATION DE BASSES
COUCHES TRES BIEN DEFINIE. CELLE-CI S'EST TOUTEFOIS UN PEU ERODEE
DANS LE SECTEUR EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE POSSIBLE DE LA POURSUITE D'UNE
LEGERE CONTRAINTE DE SECTEUR EST. LES MIMIC TPW MONTRENT AUSSI DE
L'AIR UN PEU PLUS SEC EN PERIPHERIE AYANT FAIT LE TOUR DE LA
CIRCULATION. LES ESTIMATIONS DVORAK DISPONIBLES, A LA FOIS SUBJECTIVE
ET OBJECTIVE SONT A 2.5. LA PASS ASCAT DE 0528Z MONTRENT DES VENTS A
30 KT A 95-100 KM A L'EST DU CENTRE, CE QUI LAISSE SUPPOSER QUE DU
COUP DE VENT EXISTE PLUS PRES DU CENTRE. EN CONSEQUENCE, LE SYSTEME A
ETE BAPTISE CILIDA PAR LE SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE DE MAURICE A 06Z.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA PHILOSOPHIE DE LA PREVISION DE TRAJETOIRE
ET D'INTENSITE.

LE SYSTEME S'EST DEPLACE LENTEMENT VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST AUX COURS
DES DERNIERES SIX HEURES. SUR LA FACE NORD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT GRADUELLEMENT
AMORCER UN DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD-OUEST JUSQU'A
VENDREDI L'INSTALLATION DURABLE D'UN TALWEG DE HAUTE A MOYENNE TROPO
AU SUD DES MASCAREIGNES A PARTIR DE LA FIN DE SEMAINE VA DANS UN
PREMIER TEMPS RALENTIR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME PUIS
GRADUELLEMENT ORIENTER LA TRAJECTOIRE AU SUD-SUD-EST EN ACCELERANT.
LA PHILOSOPHIE DE LA TRAJECTOIRE EST EN BON ACCORD ENTRE LES
DIFFERENTS MODELES MAIS IL EXISTE UNE INCERTITUDE SUR LA VITESSE DE
DEPLACEMENT LORS DE L'ACCELERATION VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST.

AVEC LE DEPLACEMENT PLUTOT MERIDIEN ENTAME, LE SYSTEME SE MET EN
PHASE AVEC LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE ET BENEFICIERA DE TRES BONNES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES JUSQU'A SAMEDI (AVEC NOTAMMENT UNE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE DOPEE PAR DEUX CANAUX D'EVACUATIONS). AU COURS
DES PROCHAINES 24-48H, UNE PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE EST
POSSIBLE. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, UNE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST
NORD-OUEST ET UN ENVIRONNEMENT PLUS SEC EN MOYENNE TROPO, POURRAIT
COMMENCER A AFFECTER L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME, PRESENTANT TOUTEFOIS UNE
BONNE RESISTANCE SUITE A UN DEPLACEMENT ASSEZ RAPIDE.

CE SYSTEME A LE POTENTIEL DE DEVENIR UN SYSTEME DANGEREUX POUVANT
POSER UNE MENACE A L'ARCHIPEL DES MASCAREIGNES EN FIN DE SEMAINE. LES
HABITANTS DE CES ILES SONT INVITES A SUIVRE L'EVOLUTION DE LA
SITUATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 190710

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/5/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CILIDA)

2.A POSITION 2018/12/19 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.2 S / 60.9 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 310 SW: 220 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 110 NW: 0



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/12/19 18 UTC: 11.9 S / 60.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/12/20 06 UTC: 12.7 S / 59.0 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/12/20 18 UTC: 13.6 S / 58.0 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2018/12/21 06 UTC: 14.3 S / 57.5 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2018/12/21 18 UTC: 15.1 S / 57.6 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2018/12/22 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 58.0 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/12/23 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 59.7 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2018/12/24 06 UTC: 23.9 S / 63.6 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING, THE SYSTEM SHOW A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (AS PER 37 GHZ MW IMAGERY). THIS MORNING, A SLIGHT
WEAKENING OF THE PATTERN IS SEEN ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CENTER
AND MAY BE DUE TO A PERSISTENT EASTERLY SHEAR CONSTRAINT. MIMIC TPW
FROM THE CIMSS WEBSITE ALSO DEPICTS SLIGHTLY DRYER AIRMASS ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY. ALL OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE
AT 2.5. PARTIAL ASCAT PASS OF 0528Z SHOW 30 KT WINDS AT 95-100 KM
EAST OF THE CENTER, SUGGESTING THAT GALE FORCE WINDS EXIST CLOSER TO
THE CENTER. THEREFORE, TEH SYSTEM HAS BEEN NAMED CILIDA BY MMS.

NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST REASONING:

THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED SLOWLY SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARDS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. OVER THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A BUILDING MID LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A GENERAL
SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK UP TO FRIDAY. LATER IN THE WEEK A DEEP UPPER TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE MASCAREIGNES
ISLANDS, RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT AND PERSISTENT BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEREFORE, THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN
FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY ACCELERATING SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. THE PHILOSOPHY OF THE TRACK FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT MODELS HOWEVER THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE
VELOCITY OF DISPLACEMENT DURING ACCELERATION TOWARDS THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.

CURRENTLY THE SYSTEM IS STILL UNDER A MODERATE EASTERLY CONSTRAINT,
BUT AS THE SYSTEM WILL GAIN LATITUDES, IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UNDER
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITHIN FAVORABLE TO VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
UP TO SATURDAY (WITH SPECIALLY ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH TWO EFFICIENT OUTFLOW CHANNELS). WITHIN THE NEXT 24H
TO 48H, A RAPID INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LIKELY. FROM SUNDAY AND BEYOND,
INCREASING WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR ALONG WITH A DRYER MID LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD START TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER IT MAY RESIST
DUE TO A RATHER FAST MOVEMENT.

THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A DANGEROUS TROPICAL
CYCLONE AND MAY POSE A THREAT TO THE MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS LATER THIS
WEEK. INHABITANTS OF THOSE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 190644
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/12/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 005/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 19/12/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (CILIDA) 996 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.2 S / 60.9 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 600 NM IN THE EASTERN SECTOR.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
35 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/12/19 AT 18 UTC:
11.9 S / 60.1 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/12/20 AT 06 UTC:
12.7 S / 59.0 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>