Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for DESMOND-19
in Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones (WT) or Tsunami (WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present. The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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2019-01-22 00:23

WTIO24 FMEE 220026
SECURITE
GALE WARNING OR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 22/01/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 22/01/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 6 (EX-DESMOND) 999 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.3 S / 35.9 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 350 NM FROM THE CENTER MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN SEMI CERCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/01/22 AT 12 UTC:
17.4 S / 35.8 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2019/01/23 AT 00 UTC:
16.7 S / 36.8 E, MAX WIND = 15 KT, DISSIPATING

OTHER INFORMATION:
LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.=

>

2019-01-21 20:08

WTXS51 PGTW 212100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 10S SIO 190121190829
2019012118 10S DESMOND 008 01 300 10 SATL 060
T000 190S 0364E 035 R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 181S 0359E 030
T024 175S 0362E 025
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 19.0S 36.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 36.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 18.1S 35.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 17.5S 36.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:

>

2019-01-21 20:07

WTXS31 PGTW 212100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 19.0S 36.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 36.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 18.1S 35.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 17.5S 36.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 36.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 287 NM
NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER LAND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN

>

2019-01-21 20:04

WTXS51 PGTW 212100
WARNING ATCG MIL 10S SIO 190121190829
2019012118 10S DESMOND 008 01 300 10 SATL 060
T000 190S 0364E 035 R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 181S 0359E 030
T024 175S 0362E 025
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 19.0S 36.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 36.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 18.1S 35.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 17.5S 36.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 36.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 287 NM
NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z
IS 13 FEET.
//
1019011718 249S 391E 25
1019011800 244S 386E 20
1019011806 239S 380E 25
1019011812 234S 375E 25
1019011818 231S 368E 25
1019011900 236S 369E 25
1019011906 239S 372E 25
1019011912 245S 380E 25
1019011918 242S 383E 30
1019012000 237S 384E 40
1019012006 229S 388E 40
1019012012 222S 389E 40
1019012018 216S 389E 40
1019012100 209S 386E 35
1019012106 200S 379E 35
1019012112 195S 373E 35
1019012118 190S 364E 35
NNNN

>

2019-01-21 20:03

WTXS31 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 19.0S 36.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 36.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 18.1S 35.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 17.5S 36.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 36.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 287 NM
NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER LAND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM, WITH THE ASSOCIATED CIRRUS SHIELD OBSCURING
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED PRIMARILY ON EXTRAPOLATION OF A
211618Z SSMIS ENHANCED 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH SHOWED THAT THE
LLCC IS DISPLACED EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE MASS, AND WAS LOCATED
JUST OFFSHORE AT 1800Z. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE LOW END OF AUTOMATED DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T2.9 (43 KNOTS) FROM ADT AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 41
KNOTS. BOTH TECHNIQUES ARE TRACKING THE DEEP CONVECTION WHICH IS
OVERLAND AND THUS NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE ACTUAL INTENSITY OVER
WATER. THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT SCATTEROMETER HITS, SO A
CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS WAS MAINTAINED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT SYSTEM LIES IN A
MARGINAL REGION, WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KT) EASTERLY VWS, AND
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, BEING OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY A RELATIVELY STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR THE RECENT
CONVECTIVE FLARE. TC 10S HAS MADE LANDFALL JUST AFTER 1800Z ALONG
THE CENTRAL MOZAMBIQUE COASTLINE AND WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER SOUTH AFRICA. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TRACKING INLAND, IT WILL
RAPIDLY DISSIPATE DUE TO TERRAIN INTERACTION AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT, FULLY DISSIPATING WITHIN 24 HOURS. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS WIDELY SPREAD WITH THE MAJORITY SHOWING A TRACK NORTH,
THEN NORTHEAST AND THEN A TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE
REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM REEMERGING OVER WATER BY AROUND TAU 48, WITH
THE ECMWF BEING THE PRIMARY OUTLIER THAT DOES NOT BRING THE SYSTEM
BACK OVER WATER. THE TRACK REVERSAL IS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO AN
EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF BINARY INTERACTION BETWEEN THE REMNANTS OF TC
10S AND INVEST AREA 93S, CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL MADAGASCAR. WHAT
REMNANTS DO EMERGE IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL WILL BE WEAK AND WILL
BE RAPIDLY ADSORBED INTO INVEST 93S. IN LIGHT OF THE COMPLEX NATURE
OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TC 10S AND INVEST 93S THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 13 FEET.//
NNNN

>

2019-01-21 18:15

WTIO31 FMEE 211746 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/6/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (DESMOND)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 21/01/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 21 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.1 S / 36.6 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES UN SUD ET TRENTE SIX DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 997 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 740 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 280 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 22/01/2019 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 36.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
24H: 22/01/2019 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 36.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5+.CI=2.5+

>

2019-01-21 18:15

WTIO30 FMEE 211746 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/6/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (DESMOND)

2.A POSITION 2019/01/21 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.1 S / 36.6 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 740 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 280 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/01/22 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 36.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
24H: 2019/01/22 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 36.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5+.CI=2.5+

>

2019-01-21 18:12

WTIO31 FMEE 211746
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/6/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (DESMOND)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 21/01/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 21 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.1 S / 36.6 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES UN SUD ET TRENTE SIX DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 997 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 740 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 280 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 22/01/2019 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 36.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
24H: 22/01/2019 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 36.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5+;CI=2.5+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION A CONTINUE A SE
RENFORCER DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST DE DESMOND, ET MEME DANS LE SUD,
FORMANT UNE BANDE INCURVEE. L'ENROULEMENT DES NUAGES DE BASSES
COUCHES SUGGERENT QUE LE CENTRE DE CIRCULATION RESTE LOCALISE A L'EST
DE CETTE ZONE DE FORTE CONVECTION. CELUI-CI EST DESORMAIS CACHE PAR
LES NUAGES D'ALTITUDE CE QUI REND SA LOCALISATION RELATIVEMENT
IMPRECISE EN L'ABSENCE DE DONNEES MICRO-ONDES RECENTES. DANS LA BAIE
DE SOFALA, LA PASSE ASCAT DE 0615Z CE MATIN MONTRE ENCORE DES VENTS
DE 35 KT RELATIVEMENT LOIN DU CENTRE.

LA CONTRAINTE D'EST MAINTENANT DEVRAIT ENCORE UN PEU SE RENFORCER
CETTE NUIT. AVEC UN ENVIRONNEMENT TOUJOURS TRES SEC DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE EST, LA CONVECTION NE DEVRAIT PAS REUSSIR A REGAGNER
L'ENSEMBLE DE LA CIRCULATION. CEPENDANT, GRACE AUX PUISSANTES POUSSES
CONVECTIVES DES DERNIERES HEURES, DESMOND POURRAIT ATTERRIR AU STADE
DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE. AVEC UNE STRUCTURE DE VENT TOUJOURS
TRES DISSYMETRIQUE (VENTS FORTS UNIQUEMENT SITUES SUR LE DEMI-CERCLE
OUEST), LE COUP DE VENT NE DEVRAIT ETRE PRESENT QU'A L'OUEST DU POINT
D'ATTERRISSAGE.

SOUS LA POUSSEE DE LA PUISSANTE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD, LE
SYSTEME SE DEPLACE EN DIRECTION DU NORD-OUEST. DANS LES PROCHAINES
HEURES, UN LA GER VIRAGE VERS LE NORD-NORD-OUEST EST ENCORE ATTENDU
CE QUI SUGGERE UN ATTERRISSAGE DANS LA REGION DE QUELIMANE UN PEU
AVANT 00Z CETTE NUIT. LA PRESENTE PREVISION EST BASEE SUR UN
CONSENSUS DES DERNIERS MODELES DISPONIBLES.

UNE DEGRADATION SENSIBLE DES CONDITIONS METEOROLOGIQUES EST EN COURS
SUR LES REGIONS COTIERES DE LA BAIE DE SOFALA. DANS LES HEURES QUI
VIENNENT, CETTE DEGRADATION DEVRAIT EGALEMENT VENIR CONCERNER LES
ENVIRONS DE LA VILLE DE QUELIMANE. LES VENTS DE MER ATTEIGNANT LE
COUP DE VENT POURRAIENT PROVOQUER UNE LEGERE ELEVATION DU NIVEAU DE
LA MER (MOINS D'1M).=

>

2019-01-21 18:12

WTIO30 FMEE 211746
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/6/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (DESMOND)

2.A POSITION 2019/01/21 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.1 S / 36.6 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 740 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 280 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/01/22 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 36.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
24H: 2019/01/22 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 36.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5+;CI=2.5+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION STEADILY DEVELOPED WITHIN DESMOND'S
SOUTH-WESTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS, BUILDING A CURVED BAND
STRUCTURE. THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD VORTEX SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION
CENTER IS STILL LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER OF THE CONVECTIVE
AREA. THE CENTER IS CURRENTLY MASKED BY CIRRUS CLOUDS WHICH MAKES ITS
LOCALISATION RELATIVELY IMPRECISE WITHOUT ANY RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGES. IN SOFALA'S BAY, THIS MORNING 0615Z ASCAT DATA SHOWED WINDS
STILL REACHING 35 KT RELATIVELY FAR FROM THE CENTER.

THE UPPER CONSTRAINT NOW EASTERLY SHOULD STRENGTHEN A BIT TONIGHT.
WITH STILL A VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, THE
CONVECTION SHOULD NOT MANAGE TO RELOCATE OVER THE CENTER. HOWEVER,
THANKS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE CONVECTIVE BURSTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT, DESMOND MAY STILL LAND AT THE STAGE OF MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM. WITH A VERY ASYMMETRIC WIND DISTRIBUTION (STRONG WINDS ARE
ONLY LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE), GALE FORCE SHOULD ONLY BE
REACHED WEST OF THE LANDING POINT.

WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SOUTH, DESMOND IS MOVING
NORTH-WESTERLY. A SLIGHT NORTH-NORTH-WESTERLY TURN IS STILL EXPECTED,
WHICH SUGGESTS A LANDING ON THE QUELIMANE REGION TONIGHT NEAR 00Z.
THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE LAST MODEL
RUNS AVAILABLE.

A DETERIORATION OF THE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS IS CURRENTLY
AFFECTING THE COASTS AROUND SOFALA'S BAY. IN THE NEXT HOURS, THIS
DETERIORATION SHOULD REACH THE REGION OF QUELIMANE. THE WINDS BLOWING
FROM THE SEA WILL PROBABLY REACH GALE FORCE. HOWEVER, THEY SHOULD
ONLY CAUSE A SLIGHT ELEVATION OF THE SEA LEVEL (LESS THAN 1M).=

>

2019-01-21 18:12

WTIO24 FMEE 211747
SECURITE
GALE WARNING OR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/01/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 21/01/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DESMOND) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.1 S / 36.6 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 350 NM FROM THE CENTER MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN SEMI CERCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
50 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 400 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/01/22 AT 06 UTC:
17.5 S / 36.2 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2019/01/22 AT 18 UTC:
16.5 S / 36.7 E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-01-21 14:19

WTXS51 PGTW 211500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 10S SIO 190121130939
2019012112 10S DESMOND 007 01 320 10 SATL 030
T000 193S 0374E 035 R034 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 065 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 183S 0368E 035 R034 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 085 SW QD 055 NW QD
T024 176S 0365E 025
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 19.3S 37.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S 37.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 18.3S 36.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-01-21 14:19

WTXS31 PGTW 211500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 19.3S 37.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S 37.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 18.3S 36.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.6S 36.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 37.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DESMOND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM

>

2019-01-21 14:06

WTXS51 PGTW 211500
WARNING ATCG MIL 10S SIO 190121130939
2019012112 10S DESMOND 007 01 320 10 SATL 030
T000 193S 0374E 035 R034 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 065 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 183S 0368E 035 R034 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 085 SW QD 055 NW QD
T024 176S 0365E 025
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 19.3S 37.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S 37.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 18.3S 36.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.6S 36.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 37.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
EAST OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z.
//
1019011718 249S 391E 25
1019011800 244S 386E 20
1019011806 239S 380E 25
1019011812 234S 375E 25
1019011818 231S 368E 25
1019011900 236S 369E 25
1019011906 239S 372E 25
1019011912 245S 380E 25
1019011918 242S 383E 30
1019012000 237S 384E 40
1019012006 229S 388E 40
1019012012 222S 389E 40
1019012018 216S 389E 40
1019012100 209S 386E 35
1019012106 201S 381E 35
1019012112 193S 374E 35
NNNN

>

2019-01-21 14:06

WTXS31 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 19.3S 37.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S 37.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 18.3S 36.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.6S 36.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 37.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DESMOND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
EAST OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A WEAK SYSTEM WITH THE FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION DISPLACED TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED THE MSI LOOP AND LINED
UP WITH A RAGGED LLC FEATURE IN THE 211130Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
THAT ALSO HIGHLIGHTS THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY AND
OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0 TO T2.9 AND REFLECTS THE
WEAK CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
WITH MODERATE (20-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. TC 10S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST ANCHORED
OVER SOUTH AFRICA, MAKING LANDFALL JUST AFTER TAU 12 OVER NORTHERN
MOZAMBIQUE. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL MAINTAIN THE
CURRENT INTENSITY AT BEST BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER LANDFALL DUE TO
LAND INTERACTION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS WIDELY SPREAD WITH SOME
MODELS INDICATING A REVERSE TRACK INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THIS
IS LIKELY AN INDICATION OF EXCESSIVE BINARY INTERACTION WITH A
SECONDARY CYCLONE THAT IS DEVELOPING JUST NORTH OF MADAGASCAR. IN
VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-01-21 12:55

WTIO31 FMEE 211242 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/6/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (DESMOND)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 21/01/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.5 S / 37.2 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES CINQ SUD ET TRENTE SEPT DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 997 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 740 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 280 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 22/01/2019 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 36.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
24H: 22/01/2019 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 37.3 E, VENT MAX= 010 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.0+.CI=2.5+

>

2019-01-21 12:55

WTIO30 FMEE 211242 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/6/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (DESMOND)

2.A POSITION 2019/01/21 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5 S / 37.2 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 740 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 280 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/01/22 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 36.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2019/01/22 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 37.3 E, VENT MAX= 010 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0+.CI=2.5+

>

2019-01-21 12:53

WTIO31 FMEE 211242
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/6/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (DESMOND)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 21/01/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.5 S / 37.2 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES CINQ SUD ET TRENTE SEPT DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 997 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 740 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 280 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 22/01/2019 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 36.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
24H: 22/01/2019 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 37.3 E, VENT MAX= 010 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.0+;CI=2.5+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION A CONTINUE A SE
RENFORCER DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST DE DESMOND. L'ENROULEMENT DES
NUAGES DE BASSES COUCHES SUGGERENT QUE LE CENTRE DE CIRCULATION RESTE
LOCALISE AU NORD-EST DE CETTE ZONE DE FORTE CONVECTION. CELUI-CI EST
DESORMAIS CACHE PAR LES NUAGES D'ALTITUDE CE QUI REND SA LOCALISATION
RELATIVEMENT IMPRECISE EN L'ABSENCE DE DONNEES MICRO-ONDES RECENTES.
DANS LA BAIE DE SOFALA, LA PASSE ASCAT DE 0615Z CE MATIN MONTRE
ENCORE DES VENTS DE 35 KT RELATIVEMENT LOIN DU CENTRE.

LA CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE A TOURNE A L'EST EN FIN DE NUIT DERNIERE, ET
DEVRAIT ENCORE UN PEU SE RENFORCER CE SOIR. AVEC UN ENVIRONNEMENT
TOUJOURS TRES SEC DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST, LA CONVECTION NE DEVRAIT
PAS REUSSIR A REGAGNER L'ENSEMBLE DE LA CIRCULATION. CEPENDANT, GRACE
AUX PUISSANTES POUSSES CONVECTIVES DES DERNIERES HEURES, DESMOND
POURRAIT ATTERRIR AU STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE. AVEC UNE
STRUCTURE DE VENT TOUJOURS TRES DISSYMETRIQUE (VENTS FORTS UNIQUEMENT
SITUES SUR LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST), LE COUP DE VENT NE DEVRAIT ETRE
PRESENT QU'A L'OUEST DU POINT D'ATTERRISSAGE.

SOUS LA POUSSEE DE LA PUISSANTE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD, LE
SYSTEME SE DEPLACE EN DIRECTION DU NORD-OUEST. DANS LES PROCHAINES
HEURES, UN LA GER VIRAGE VERS LE NORD-NORD-OUEST EST ENCORE ATTENDU
CE QUI SUGGERE UN ATTERRISSAGE DANS LA REGION DE QUELIMANE VERS 00Z
LA NUIT PROCHAINE. LA PRESENTE PREVISION EST BASEE SUR UN CONSENSUS
DES DERNIERS MODELES DISPONIBLES.

UNE DEGRADATION SENSIBLE DES CONDITIONS METEOROLOGIQUES EST EN COURS
SUR LES REGIONS COTIERES DE LA BAIE DE SOFALA. DANS LES HEURES QUI
VIENNENT, CETTE DEGRADATION DEVRAIT EGALEMENT VENIR CONCERNER LES
ENVIRONS DE LA VILLE DE QUELIMANE. LES VENTS DE MER ATTEIGNANT LE
COUP DE VENT POURRAIENT PROVOQUER UNE LEGERE ELEVATION DU NIVEAU DE
LA MER (MOINS D'1M).=

>

2019-01-21 12:53

WTIO30 FMEE 211242
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/6/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (DESMOND)

2.A POSITION 2019/01/21 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5 S / 37.2 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 740 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 280 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/01/22 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 36.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2019/01/22 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 37.3 E, VENT MAX= 010 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0+;CI=2.5+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION STEADILY DEVELOPED WITHIN DESMOND'S
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT. THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD VORTEX SUGGEST THAT THE
CIRCULATION CENTER IS STILL LOCATED NEAR THE NORTH-EASTERN BORDER OF
THE CONVECTIVE AREA. THE CENTER IS CURRENTLY MASKED BY CIRRUS CLOUDS
WHICH MAKES ITS LOCALISATION RELATIVELY IMPRECISE WITHOUT ANY RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGES. IN SOFALA'S BAY, THIS MORNING 0615Z ASCAT DATA
SHOWED WINDS STILL REACHING 35 KT RELATIVELY FAR FROM THE CENTER.

THE UPPER CONSTRAINT VEERED EASTERLY AT THE END OF LAST NIGHT, AND
SHOULD STRENGTHEN A BIT TONIGHT. WITH STILL A VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT IN
THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, THE CONVECTION SHOULD NOT MANAGE TO RELOCATE
OVER THE CENTER. HOWEVER, THANKS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE CONVECTIVE
BURSTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT, DESMOND MAY STILL LAND AT THE
STAGE OF MODERATE TROPICAL STORM. WITH A VERY ASYMMETRIC WIND
DISTRIBUTION (STRONG WINDS ARE ONLY LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE), GALE FORCE SHOULD ONLY BE REACHED WEST OF THE LANDING
POINT.

WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SOUTH, DESMOND IS MOVING
NORTH-WESTERLY. A SLIGHT NORTH-NORTH-WESTERLY TURN IS STILL EXPECTED,
WHICH SUGGESTS A LANDING ON THE QUELIMANE REGION TONIGHT NEAR 00Z.
THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE LAST MODEL
RUNS AVAILABLE.

A DETERIORATION OF THE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS IS CURRENTLY
AFFECTING THE COASTS AROUND SOFALA'S BAY. IN THE NEXT HOURS, THIS
DETERIORATION SHOULD REACH THE REGION OF QUELIMANE. THE WINDS BLOWING
FROM THE SEA WILL PROBABLY REACH GALE FORCE. HOWEVER, THEY SHOULD
ONLY CAUSE A SLIGHT ELEVATION OF THE SEA LEVEL (LESS THAN 1M).=

>

2019-01-21 12:21

WTIO24 FMEE 211222
SECURITE
GALE WARNING OR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/01/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 21/01/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DESMOND) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5 S / 37.2 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM FROM THE CENTER MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
50 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 400 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/01/22 AT 00 UTC:
18.0 S / 36.8 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2019/01/22 AT 12 UTC:
16.8 S / 37.3 E, MAX WIND = 10 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-01-21 08:15

WTXS51 PGTW 210900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 10S SIO 190121065222
2019012106 10S DESMOND 006 01 330 09 SATL 025
T000 201S 0381E 035 R034 070 NE QD 095 SE QD 125 SW QD 135 NW QD
T012 187S 0374E 035 R034 000 NE QD 075 SE QD 105 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 176S 0372E 030
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 20.1S 38.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S 38.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 18.7S 37.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-01-21 08:15

WTXS31 PGTW 210900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 20.1S 38.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S 38.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 18.7S 37.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 17.6S 37.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 37.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DESMOND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 172 NM

>

2019-01-21 08:02

WTXS51 PGTW 210900
WARNING ATCG MIL 10S SIO 190121065222
2019012106 10S DESMOND 006 01 330 09 SATL 025
T000 201S 0381E 035 R034 070 NE QD 095 SE QD 125 SW QD 135 NW QD
T012 187S 0374E 035 R034 000 NE QD 075 SE QD 105 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 176S 0372E 030
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 20.1S 38.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S 38.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 18.7S 37.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 17.6S 37.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 37.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 172 NM
NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z.
//
1019011718 249S 391E 25
1019011800 244S 386E 20
1019011806 239S 380E 25
1019011812 234S 375E 25
1019011818 231S 368E 25
1019011900 236S 369E 25
1019011906 239S 372E 25
1019011912 245S 380E 25
1019011918 242S 383E 30
1019012000 237S 384E 40
1019012006 229S 388E 40
1019012012 222S 389E 40
1019012018 216S 389E 40
1019012100 209S 386E 35
1019012106 201S 381E 35
NNNN

>

2019-01-21 08:01

WTXS31 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 20.1S 38.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S 38.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 18.7S 37.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 17.6S 37.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 37.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DESMOND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 172 NM
NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SYSTEM WITH THE FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION
DISPLACED OVER 50 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC).
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON A RAGGED
BUT DEFINED LLC FEATURE IN THE 210345Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT
ALSO HIGHLIGHTS THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION, FULLY
REVEALING THE LLC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM T1.5 TO T2.6 AND REFLECTS THE WEAK CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE (20-25 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 10S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE WEST AND ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AFRICA, MAKING LANDFALL
JUST BEFORE TAU 12 OVER NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY AT BEST BEFORE
DISSIPATING AT LANDFALL DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS WIDELY SPREAD OUT WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING A REVERSE
TRACK INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THIS IS LIKELY AN INDICATION OF
EXCESSIVE BINARY INTERACTION WITH A SECONDARY CYCLONE THAT IS
DEVELOPING JUST NORTH OF MADAGASCAR. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z AND
220300Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-01-21 07:04

WTIO31 FMEE 210702 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/6/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (DESMOND)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 21/01/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.2 S / 37.7 E
(VINGT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET TRENTE SEPT DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/2.5/W 1.0/18 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 997 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 740 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 280 NO: 190


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 21/01/2019 18 UTC: 18.3 S / 37.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
24H: 22/01/2019 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 36.9 E, VENT MAX= 010 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.0-.CI=2.5+

>

2019-01-21 07:04

WTIO30 FMEE 210702 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/6/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (DESMOND)

2.A POSITION 2019/01/21 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.2 S / 37.7 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/W 1.0/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 740 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 280 NW: 190


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/01/21 18 UTC: 18.3 S / 37.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2019/01/22 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 36.9 E, VENT MAX= 010 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0-.CI=2.5+

>

2019-01-21 07:01

WTIO31 FMEE 210702
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/6/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (DESMOND)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 21/01/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.2 S / 37.7 E
(VINGT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET TRENTE SEPT DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/2.5/W 1.0/18 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 997 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 740 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 280 NO: 190


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 21/01/2019 18 UTC: 18.3 S / 37.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
24H: 22/01/2019 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 36.9 E, VENT MAX= 010 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.0-;CI=2.5+

LE CENTRE DE CIRCULATION DE SURFACE EST RESTE EXPOSE AU NORD-EST DE
LA CONVECTION RESIDUELLE EN COURS DE NUIT DERNIERE. AU COURS DES DEUX
DERNIERES HEURES, UNE FORTE POUSSEE DE CONVECTION S'EST DECLENCHEE
DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST, A MOINS DE 30MN DU CENTRE. SUR LES
DERNIERES IMAGES SATELLITES DISPONIBLES, LE CENTRE RESTE EN LIMITE
NORD-EST DE LA CONVECTION. AU VU DE CETTE AMELIORATION TEMPORAIRE DE
LA PRESENTATION SATELLITE ET DES DERNIERES ANALYSES MODELES
DISPONIBLES, LE SYSTEME EST CONSERVE AU STADE MINIMAL DE TEMPETE
TROPCIALE MODEREE.

LA CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE A TOURNE A L'EST EN FIN DE NUIT DERNIERE,
SANS RELLEMENT FAIBLIR. AVEC UN ENVIRONNEMENT TOUJOURS TRES SEC DANS
LE DEMI-CERCLE EST, LA CONVECTION NE DEVRAIT PAS REUSSIR A REGAGNER
L'ENSEMBLE DE LA CIRCULATION ET DESMOND DEVRAIT PERDRE SON STATUT DE
TEMPETE AVANT SON ATTERRISSAGES SUR LES COTES MOZAMBICAINES. AVEC UNE
STRUCTURE DE VENT TOUJOURS TRES DISSYMETRIQUE (VENTS FORTS UNIQUEMENT
SITUES SUR LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST), DU COUP DE VENT NE SERAIT QUE
LOCALEMENT PRESENT A L'OUEST DU POINT D'ATTERRISSAGE.

SOUS LA POUSSEE DE LA PUISSANTE DE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD, LE
SYSTEME ACCELERE MAINTENANT SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE NORD-NORD-OUEST, ET
DEVRAIT EFFECTUER UN ATTERRISSAGE DANS LA REGION DE QUELIMANE PLUS
TARD CE SOIR OU EN COURS DE NUIT PROCHAINE. LA PRESENTE PREVISION EST
BASEE SUR UN CONSENSUS DES DERNIERS MODELES DISPONIBLES.

MEME SI C'EST UN SYSTEME MOINS ORGANISE QUE PREVU QUI S'APPROCHE DES
COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE, UNE DEGRADATION SENSIBLE DES CONDITIONS
METEOROLOGIQUES EST ATTENDUE PRINCIPALEMENT SUR LES REGIONS COTIERES
SITUEES A L'OUEST DE LA TRAJECTOIRE (PRINCIPALEMENT ENTRE LES VILLES
DE BEIRA ET QUELIMANE). LES VENTS DE MER ATTEIGNANT LE GRAND FRAIS
VOIRE LOCALEMENT LE COUP DE VENT, PROVOQUERONT UNE LEGERE ELEVATION
DU NIVEAU DE LA MER (MOINS D'1M).=

>

2019-01-21 07:01

WTIO30 FMEE 210702
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/6/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (DESMOND)

2.A POSITION 2019/01/21 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.2 S / 37.7 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/W 1.0/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 740 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 280 NW: 190


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/01/21 18 UTC: 18.3 S / 37.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2019/01/22 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 36.9 E, VENT MAX= 010 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0-;CI=2.5+

THE SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINED EXPOSED IN THE NORTH-EAST OF
THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION LAST NIGHT. OVER THE LAST 2 HOURS, A STRONG
CONVECTIVE BURST HAS TRIGGERED IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, LESS
THAN 30 NM AWAY FROM THE CENTER. ON THE LAST AVAILABLE SAT IMAGES,
THE CENTER REMAINS VISIBLE IN THE NORTH-EASTERN BORDER OF THE
CONVECTION. GIVEN THIS TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENT OF THE SAT PRESENTATION
AND THE LAST MODEL ANALYSIS AVAILABLE, THE SYSTEM IS STILL ESTIMATED
TO BE AT THE MINIMAL MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE.

THE UPPER CONSTRAINT VEERED EASTERLY AT THE END OF LAST NIGHT, WITH
NO REAL WEAKENING. WITH STILL A VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE, THE CONVECTION SHOULD NOT MANAGE TO RELOCATE OVER THE
CENTER AND DESMOND SHOULD LOOSE ITS STORM STATUS BEFORE ITS LANDING
ON THE MOZAMBICAN COASTS. WITH A VERY ASYMMETRIC WIND DISTRIBUTION
(STRONG WINDS ARE ONLY LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE), GALE
FORCE SHOULD ONLY BE REACHED LOCALLY WEST OF THE LANDING POINT.

WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SOUTH, DESMOND IS CURRENTLY
ACCELERATING ON A NORTH-NORTH-WESTERLY TRACK AND SHOULD LAND ON THE
QUELIMANE REGION TONIGHT. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF THE LAST MODEL RUNS AVAILABLE.

EVEN IF A WEAKER SYSTEM THAN ANTICIPATED IS TRACKING CLOSER TO THE
MOZAMBICAN COASTLINES, A SENSIBLE DETERIORATION OF THE METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS IS AWAITED MAINLY ON THE COASTAL REGIONS LOCATED WEST OF
THE TRACK (BETWEEN THE CITIES OF BEIRA AND QUELIMANE). THE WINDS
BLOWING FROM THE SEA ARE REACHING NEAR GALE AND LOCALLY GALE FORCE.
HOWEVER, THEY SHOULD ONLY CAUSE A SLIGHT ELEVATION OF THE SEA LEVEL
(LESS THAN 1M).=

>

2019-01-21 06:13

WTIO24 FMEE 210613
SECURITE
GALE WARNING OR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/01/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 21/01/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DESMOND) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.2 S / 37.7 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM FROM THE CENTER MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
100 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 400 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/01/21 AT 18 UTC:
18.3 S / 37.3 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2019/01/22 AT 06 UTC:
17.4 S / 36.9 E, MAX WIND = 10 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-01-21 02:52

WTXS51 PGTW 210300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 10S SIO 190121010847
2019012100 10S DESMOND 005 01 340 08 SATL 045
T000 209S 0386E 035 R034 000 NE QD 060 SE QD 120 SW QD 150 NW QD
T012 193S 0378E 035 R034 000 NE QD 075 SE QD 105 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 182S 0374E 035 R034 030 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 173S 0373E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 20.9S 38.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9S 38.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 19.3S 37.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:

>

2019-01-21 02:52

WTXS31 PGTW 210300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 20.9S 38.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9S 38.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 19.3S 37.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 18.2S 37.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-01-21 02:03

WTXS51 PGTW 210300
WARNING ATCG MIL 10S SIO 190121010847
2019012100 10S DESMOND 005 01 340 08 SATL 045
T000 209S 0386E 035 R034 000 NE QD 060 SE QD 120 SW QD 150 NW QD
T012 193S 0378E 035 R034 000 NE QD 075 SE QD 105 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 182S 0374E 035 R034 030 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 173S 0373E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 20.9S 38.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9S 38.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 19.3S 37.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 18.2S 37.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.3S 37.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 38.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DESMOND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 119 NM NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z.//
1019011718 249S 391E 25
1019011800 244S 386E 20
1019011806 239S 380E 25
1019011812 234S 375E 25
1019011818 231S 368E 25
1019011900 236S 369E 25
1019011906 239S 372E 25
1019011912 245S 380E 25
1019011918 242S 383E 30
1019012000 237S 384E 40
1019012006 229S 388E 40
1019012012 222S 389E 40
1019012018 216S 389E 40
1019012100 209S 386E 35
NNNN

>

2019-01-21 02:02

WTXS31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 20.9S 38.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9S 38.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 19.3S 37.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 18.2S 37.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.3S 37.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 38.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DESMOND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 119 NM
NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE USING ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
UNDER SOME THIN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
35 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
KNES AND PGTW OF T2.0-2.5 (30-35 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL
OVERALL WITH MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), FAIR
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE.
FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCES
FOR TC 10S WILL BE A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST AND POSSIBLE
BINARY INTERACTION WITH ANOTHER CIRCULATION (INVEST 93S), LOCATED
NEAR THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN
MARGINAL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD MAINTAIN
INTENSITY NEAR 35 KTS UNTIL DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER MAKING
LANDFALL OVER MOZAMBIQUE AT AROUND TAU 30. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
NAVGEM, WHICH IS SLOWER AND TO THE WEST OF THE OTHER MEMBERS,
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF
THE CONSENSUS TRACK TO COMPENSATE FOR THE NAVGEM OUTLIER. SOMETIME
AFTER 10S IS FORECASTED TO DISSIPATE, A SECOND TROPICAL CYCLONE,
POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF 93S AND THE REMNANTS OF 10S MERGING, IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AND TRACK SOUTHWARD. BASED ON HIGH UNCERTAINTY AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-01-21 01:20

WTIO31 FMEE 210101 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/6/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6(DESMOND)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 21/01/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.6 S / 38.6 E
(VINGT DEGRES SIX SUD ET TRENTE HUIT DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-NORD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 1.5/2.5/W 1.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 997 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 740 NO: 350
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 330 NO: 260


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 21/01/2019 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 37.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
24H: 22/01/2019 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 37.0 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=1.5 CI=2.5

>

2019-01-21 01:20

WTIO30 FMEE 210101 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/6/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6(DESMOND)

2.A POSITION 2019/01/21 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.6 S / 38.6 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/2.5/W 1.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 740 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 330 NW: 260


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/01/21 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 37.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2019/01/22 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 37.0 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=1.5 CI=2.5

>

2019-01-21 01:17

WTIO31 FMEE 210101
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/6/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6(DESMOND)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 21/01/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.6 S / 38.6 E
(VINGT DEGRES SIX SUD ET TRENTE HUIT DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-NORD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 1.5/2.5/W 1.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 997 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 740 NO: 350
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 330 NO: 260


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 21/01/2019 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 37.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
24H: 22/01/2019 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 37.0 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=1.5 CI=2.5

LA PRESENTATION SATELLITE DE DESMOND A CONTINUE DE SE DEGRADER DURANT
LA NUIT AVEC UN CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES DE PLUS EN PLUS ELOIGNE DE
LA CONVECTION RESIDUELLE SITUEE AU SUD. LES IMAGES PROCHES IR DE
MSG-1 FONT CLAIREMENT APPARAITRE LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES QUI
EST EN PERTE D'ORGANISATION. LE MAINTIENT AU STADE MINIMAL DE LA
TEMPETE TROPICALE EST PEUT ETRE GENEREUX POUR L'ESTIMATION
D'INTENSITE, MAIS SE BASE SUR L'EXISTENCE ENCORE PROBABLE DE COUP DE
VENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST (ASCAT A 35/38 KT VERS 18/19Z)

LE SYSTEME SUBIT UNE CONTRAINTE MODEREE DE SECTEUR NORD QUI DEVRAIT
TOURNER A L'EST EN COURS DE JOURNEE. MEME SI LE SYSTEME POURRAIT
EVOLUER DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT PLUS HUMIDE EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE A
L'APPROCHE DES COTES, L'ETAT ACTUEL DEGRADE DE LA CIRCULATION DE
BASSES COUCHES, COUPLE A UNE BAISSE DE LA CONVERGENCE DE BASSES
COUCHES COTE NORD, SUGGERE QUE LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PERDRE SON STATUT
DE TEMPETE DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES. AVEC UNE STRUCTURE DE VENT
TOUJOURS TRES DISSYMETRIQUE (VENTS FORTS A L'OUEST DU CENTRE), DU
COUP DE VENT NE SERAIT QUE LOCALEMENT PRESENT DANS CE SECTEUR.

SOUS LA POUSSE DE LA PUISSANTE DE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, LE SYSTEME
ACCELERE MAINTENANT SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE NORD-NORD-OUEST, ET DEVRAIT
EFFECTUER UN ATTERRISSAGE DANS LA REGION DE QUELIMANE PLUS TARD
AUJOURD'HUI OU LA NUIT PROCHAINE. LA PRESENTE PREVISION EST BASEE SUR
UN CONSENSUS IFS/UKMO/12Z ET GFS/18Z.

MEME SI C'EST UN SYSTEME MOINS ORGANISE QUE PREVU QUI S'APPROCHE DES
COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE, UNE DEGRADATION SENSIBLE DES CONDITIONS
METEOROLOGIQUES EST ATTENDUE PRINCIPALEMENT SUR LES REGIONS COTIERES
SITUEES A L'OUEST DE LA TRAJECTOIRE (PRINCIPALEMENT ENTRE BEIRA ET
QUELIMANE). LES VENTS DE MER ATTEIGNANT LE GRAND FRAIS VOIRE
LOCALEMENT LE COUP DE VENT, PROVOQUERONT UNE ELEVATION ANORMALE DU
NIVEAU DE LA MER QUI NE DEVRAIT TOUTEFOIS PAS DEPASSER 1M.=

>

2019-01-21 01:17

WTIO30 FMEE 210101
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/6/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6(DESMOND)

2.A POSITION 2019/01/21 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.6 S / 38.6 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/2.5/W 1.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 740 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 330 NW: 260


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/01/21 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 37.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2019/01/22 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 37.0 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=1.5 CI=2.5

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF DESMOND HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE
OVERNIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL CENTER MOVING INCREASINGLY AWAY OF THE
RESIDUAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOCATED TO ITS SOUTH. MSG1 NEAR IR
IMAGERY WELL DEPICT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT IS LOOSING
ORGANIZATION. DESMOND IS BARELY A TROPICAL STORM AND THIS INITIAL
INTENSITY MAY BE GENEROUS. IT IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM ASCAT
DATA AT 18/19Z THAT STILL READ SOME 35/38 KT WINDS.

THE SYSTEM IS SUFFERING FROM A NORTHERLY SHEAR THAT SHOULD TURN
EASTERLY TODAY WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT LESSENING. EVEN IF THE MID-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO MOISTEN AS THE SYSTEM NEAR THE COASTS, THE
CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION AND THE DECREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OVER THE NORTHERN SIDE, SUGGEST THAT DESMOND IS ABOUT TO LOOSE
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. WINDS STRUCTURE SHOULD REMAIN HIGHLY
ASYMMETRICAL WITH NEAR GALE TO LOCALLY GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN ONLY TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER.

DUE TO THE BUILDING STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTH-WEST, THE
SYSTEM IS ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTH-WESTWARDS. UNDER THIS TRACK THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE CITY OF QUELIMANE LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF
IFS/UKMO 12Z AND GFS/18Z.

EVEN IF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS ORGANIZED THAN
PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED SOME SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ARE STILL EXPECTED ON
COASTAL AREAS LOCATED WEST OF THE LANDFALL AREA (MAINLY THE AREA
BETWEEN BEIRA AND QUELIMANE): NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS TO LOCALLY GALE
FORCE ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ABNORMAL WATERS RISE.
HOWEVER EXPECTED VALUES ARE NOT EXCEEDING 1M.=

>

2019-01-21 00:10

WTIO24 FMEE 210003
SECURITE
GALE WARNING OR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/01/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 21/01/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DESMOND) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.6 S / 38.6 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM FROM THE CENTER MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CERCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
140 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
UP TO 190 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 400 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/01/21 AT 12 UTC:
19.0 S / 37.7 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2019/01/22 AT 00 UTC:
17.6 S / 37.0 E, MAX WIND = 15 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-01-20 20:46

WTXS51 PGTW 202100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 10S SIO 190120193020
2019012018 10S DESMOND 004 01 020 05 SATL 045
T000 217S 0391E 045 R034 070 NE QD 140 SE QD 190 SW QD 170 NW QD
T012 202S 0387E 050 R050 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
045 NE QD 110 SE QD 160 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 188S 0379E 045 R034 020 NE QD 080 SE QD 120 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 178S 0373E 035 R034 030 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 169S 0367E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 21.7S 39.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S 39.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 20.2S 38.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2019-01-20 20:45

WTXS31 PGTW 202100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 21.7S 39.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S 39.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 20.2S 38.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 18.8S 37.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

2019-01-20 20:42

WTXS51 PGTW 202100
WARNING ATCG MIL 10S SIO 190120193020
2019012018 10S DESMOND 004 01 020 05 SATL 045
T000 217S 0391E 045 R034 070 NE QD 140 SE QD 190 SW QD 170 NW QD
T012 202S 0387E 050 R050 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 045 NE QD 110 SE QD 160 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 188S 0379E 045 R034 020 NE QD 080 SE QD 120 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 178S 0373E 035 R034 030 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 169S 0367E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 21.7S 39.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S 39.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 20.2S 38.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 18.8S 37.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 17.8S 37.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 16.9S 36.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 39.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DESMOND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 68 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z.//
1019011718 249S 391E 25
1019011800 244S 386E 20
1019011806 239S 380E 25
1019011812 234S 375E 25
1019011818 231S 368E 25
1019011900 236S 369E 25
1019011906 239S 372E 25
1019011912 245S 380E 25
1019011918 242S 383E 30
1019012000 237S 384E 40
1019012006 229S 388E 40
1019012012 222S 389E 40
1019012018 217S 391E 45
NNNN

>

2019-01-20 20:41

WTXS31 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 21.7S 39.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S 39.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 20.2S 38.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 18.8S 37.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 17.8S 37.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 16.9S 36.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 39.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DESMOND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 68 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
05 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RAIN BANDS IN ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 201633Z
SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE IN WHICH NORTHERN RAIN BANDS HELP
PINPOINT THE LIKELY POSITION OF THE LLCC WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS PLACED ON THE HIGH SIDE OF DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5-T3.0 (35-45 KTS) BASED ON A
201631Z CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 47 KTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 10S WILL TRACK
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) UNTIL
DISSIPATING DUE TO LAND INTERACTION SHORTLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL.
THROUGH TAU 12, THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW TC
10S TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY. AFTERWARD, DIMINISHED OUTFLOW ALONG WITH
CONTINUED MODERATE TO HIGH VWS WILL CAUSE SLIGHT WEAKENING UNTIL
LANDFALL AND DISSIPATION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT TAU 24. AFTER THAT TIME, THE MODELS APPEAR
TO HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY TRACKING THE TC AS IT WEAKENS AND SOME
POSSIBLY BEGIN TRACKING A NEW CIRCULATION THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OFF MADAGASCAR INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AROUND TAU 36-48. BASED
ON THE LACK OF CLEAR GUIDANCE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF BINARY
INTERACTION WITH A NEW CIRCULATION BEYOND TAU 24, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210300Z, 210900Z,
211500Z AND 212100Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-01-20 19:16

WTIO31 FMEE 201904 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/6/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6(DESMOND)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 20/01/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.5 S / 38.8 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES CINQ SUD ET TRENTE HUIT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-NORD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/3.0/W 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 996 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 0 SO: 740 NO: 350
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 440 NO: 260


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 21/01/2019 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 37.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 21/01/2019 18 UTC: 18.3 S / 37.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 22/01/2019 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 35.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.0+ CI=3.0-

>

2019-01-20 19:16

WTIO30 FMEE 201904 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/6/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6(DESMOND)

2.A POSITION 2019/01/20 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.5 S / 38.8 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/3.0/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 0 SW: 740 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 440 NW: 260


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/01/21 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 37.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/01/21 18 UTC: 18.3 S / 37.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/01/22 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 35.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0+ CI=3.0-

>

2019-01-20 19:14

WTIO31 FMEE 201904
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/6/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6(DESMOND)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 20/01/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.5 S / 38.8 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES CINQ SUD ET TRENTE HUIT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-NORD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/3.0/W 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 996 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 0 SO: 740 NO: 350
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 440 NO: 260


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 21/01/2019 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 37.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 21/01/2019 18 UTC: 18.3 S / 37.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 22/01/2019 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 35.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.0+ CI=3.0-

APRES S'ETRE EN GRANDE PARTIE EFFONDREE EN COURS D'APRES-MIDI, LA
CONVECTION S'EST REFORMEE DEPUIS LA SOIREE SOUS LA FORME D'UN CLUSTER
A SOMMETS FROIDS SITUE AU SUD DU CENTRE QUI RESTE EXPOSE (CF WINDSAT
DE 1543Z). LES ESTIMATIONS DVORAK SONT A LA BAISSE MAIS L'INTENSITE
EST INCHANGEE CAR ON PEUT ESTIMER AVEC UNE GRANDE CONFIANCE QUE DU
COUP DE VENT EXISTE TOUJOURS DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST DU SYSTEME.

LE SYSTEME SUBIT UNE CONTRAINTE MODEREE DE SECTEUR NORD QUI DEVRAIT
TOURNER A L'EST EN COURS DE JOURNEE DE DEMAIN. L'ENVIRONNEMENT
APPARAIT ASSEZ SEC EN MOYENNE TROPO DANS LE SECTEUR NORD DU SYSTEME
MAIS LES MODELES NUMERIQUES SUGGERENT QUE LE SYSTEME POURRAIT EVOLUER
DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT PLUS HUMIDE A L'APPROCHE DES COTES. L'ENSEMBLE
DE CES ELEMENTS PLAIDENT POUR UNE INTENSITE DU SYSTEME ASSEZ STABLE
JUSQU'A L'ATTERISSAGE AVEC UN SYSTEME QUI DEVRAIT CONSERVER SA
STRUCTURE TRES DISSYMETRIQUE (VENTS FORTS A L'OUEST DU CENTRE).

SOUS LA POUSSE DE LA PUISSANTE DE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, LE SYSTEME
EST PREVU REMONTER EN DIRECTION DU NORD-NORD-OUEST, ET DEVRAIT
EFFECTUER UN ATTERRISSAGE DANS LA REGION DE QUELIMANE. CE SCENARIO
EST MAINTENANT FORTEMENT SUGGERE PAR LA PREVISION D'ENSEMBLE DU
CENTRE EUROPEEN AINSI QUE PAR LES MODELES LES PLUS FIABLES AVEC
QUELQUES DIFFERENCES DE TIMING. LA PRESENTE PREVISIONEST BASEE SUR UN
CONSENSUS IFS/06Z ET GFS/UK/12Z. L'ATTERRISSAGE DEVRAIT AVOIR LIEU
DEMAIN EN FIN DE JOURNEE OU EN COURS DE NUIT SUIVANTE.

UNE DEGRADATION IMPORTANTE DU TEMPS POUR LES ZONES COTIERES DU
MOZAMBIQUE RESTE D'ACTUALITE: VENTS FORTS ACCOMPAGNES D'UN TEMPS A
GRAINS MARQUES VONT GAGNER LA REGION ENTRE INHAMBANE ET BEIRA DANS
UN PREMIER TEMPS PUIS S'ETENDRE LE LONG DE LA COTE AU NORD DE BEIRA
LUNDI.=

>

2019-01-20 19:14

WTIO30 FMEE 201904
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/6/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6(DESMOND)

2.A POSITION 2019/01/20 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.5 S / 38.8 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/3.0/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 0 SW: 740 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 440 NW: 260


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/01/21 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 37.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/01/21 18 UTC: 18.3 S / 37.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/01/22 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 35.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0+ CI=3.0-

AFTER A NEAR COMPLETE COLLAPSING OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON, A NEW CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS FORMED THIS EVENING
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC (CF WINDSAT IMAGERY AT 1543Z). THE
AVAILABLE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE DECREASING BUT THE INTENSITY REMAINS
UNCHANGED AS GALE FORCE WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BLOW WITHIN THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

THE SYSTEM IS SUFFERING FROM A NORTHERLY SHEAR THAT SHOULD TURN
EASTERLY TOMORROW. THE RATHER DRY MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED
TO MOISTEN TOMORROW AS THE SYSTEM NEAR THE COASTS. THEREFORE THE
FORECAST INTENSITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH UNTIL LANDFALL WITH
GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN WEST OF THE CENTER
(ASYMMETRICAL WIND STRUCTURE)

DUE TO THE BUILDING STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTH-WEST, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTH-WESTWARDS. UNDER THIS
TRACK THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LANDFALL NEAR THE CITY OF QUELIMANE
ON LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THIS TREND IS NOW HIGHLY SUGGESTED BY
THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST ALONG WITH THE MOST RELIABLE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF IFS/06Z AND
GFS/UK/12Z.

HOWEVER, SOME SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL
AREAS OF MOZAMBIQUE : STRONGS WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS ARE SPREADING
BETWEEN INHAMBANE AND BEIRA AND ARE EXPECTED TO EXTEND NORTH OF BEIRA
ON MONDAY.=

>

2019-01-20 18:18

WTIO24 FMEE 201815
SECURITE
GALE WARNING OR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/01/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 20/01/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6(DESMOND) 996 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.5 S / 38.8 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM FROM THE CENTER MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CERCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
140 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 240 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 190 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/01/21 AT 06 UTC:
19.6 S / 37.9 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/01/21 AT 18 UTC:
18.3 S / 37.1 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-01-20 14:12

WTXS51 PGTW 201500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 10S SIO 190120135824
2019012012 10S DESMOND 003 01 010 07 SATL 025
T000 222S 0389E 040 R034 080 NE QD 130 SE QD 280 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 205S 0386E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
075 NE QD 125 SE QD 200 SW QD 180 NW QD
T024 190S 0379E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
075 NE QD 125 SE QD 200 SW QD 180 NW QD
T036 181S 0372E 040 R034 020 NE QD 110 SE QD 150 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 171S 0367E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 22.2S 38.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.2S 38.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 20.5S 38.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2019-01-20 14:12

WTXS31 PGTW 201500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 22.2S 38.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.2S 38.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 20.5S 38.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 19.0S 37.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

2019-01-20 14:08

WTXS51 PGTW 201500
WARNING ATCG MIL 10S SIO 190120135824
2019012012 10S DESMOND 003 01 010 07 SATL 025
T000 222S 0389E 040 R034 080 NE QD 130 SE QD 280 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 205S 0386E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 125 SE QD 200 SW QD 180 NW QD
T024 190S 0379E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 125 SE QD 200 SW QD 180 NW QD
T036 181S 0372E 040 R034 020 NE QD 110 SE QD 150 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 171S 0367E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 22.2S 38.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.2S 38.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 20.5S 38.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 19.0S 37.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 18.1S 37.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.1S 36.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 21.8S 38.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 72 NM WEST
OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210300Z AND 211500Z.
//
1019011718 249S 391E 25
1019011800 244S 386E 20
1019011806 239S 380E 25
1019011812 234S 375E 25
1019011818 231S 368E 25
1019011900 236S 369E 25
1019011906 239S 372E 25
1019011912 245S 380E 25
1019011918 242S 383E 30
1019012000 237S 384E 40
1019012006 229S 388E 40
1019012012 222S 389E 40
NNNN

>

2019-01-20 14:08

WTXS31 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 22.2S 38.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.2S 38.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 20.5S 38.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 19.0S 37.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 18.1S 37.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.1S 36.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 21.8S 38.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DESMOND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 72 NM WEST
OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A WEAK BUT
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH THE CENTRAL CONVECTION DISPLACED 40 NM TO
THE SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON A DEFINED LLC FEATURE IN THE
201110Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT ALSO HIGHLIGHTS THE DISPLACEMENT
OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION, FULLY REVEALING THE LLC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND
OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.0 AND REFLECTS THE
SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE (10-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET
BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. TC 10S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE WEST AND
ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AFRICA, MAKING LANDFALL SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36 OVER
NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS TO A PEAK OF 50
KNOTS BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING MOSTLY DUE TO DIMINISHING OUTFLOW
AND INCREASING VWS. AFTER LANDFALL, TC 10S WILL RAPIDLY DECAY DUE TO
LAND INTERACTION, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SPREAD OUT EVEN MORE WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING A
REVERSE TRACK BACK INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AFTER LANDFALL. THIS
IS LIKELY AN INDICATION OF EXCESSIVE BINARY INTERACTION WITH A
SECONDARY CYCLONE THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF
MADAGASCAR. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-01-20 13:06

WTIO31 FMEE 201305 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/6/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6(DESMOND)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 20/01/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.3 S / 38.9 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES TROIS SUD ET TRENTE HUIT DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-NORD-EST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SO: 310 NO: 240
34 KT NE: SE: SO: 280 NO: 190


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 21/01/2019 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 38.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 21/01/2019 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 37.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 22/01/2019 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 37.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 22/01/2019 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 36.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0-.

>

2019-01-20 13:06

WTIO30 FMEE 201305 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/6/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6(DESMOND)

2.A POSITION 2019/01/20 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.3 S / 38.9 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTH-EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 310 NW: 240
34 KT NE: SE: SW: 280 NW: 190


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/01/21 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 38.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/01/21 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 37.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/01/22 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 37.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/01/22 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 36.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0-.

>

2019-01-20 13:03

WTIO31 FMEE 201305
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/6/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6(DESMOND)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 20/01/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.3 S / 38.9 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES TROIS SUD ET TRENTE HUIT DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-NORD-EST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SO: 310 NO: 240
34 KT NE: SE: SO: 280 NO: 190


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 21/01/2019 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 38.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 21/01/2019 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 37.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 22/01/2019 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 37.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 22/01/2019 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 36.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0-.
DURANT LA MATINA E LA CONVECTION S'EST NETTEMENT RENFORCEE, AU DESSUS
DU CENTRE. LES DERNIERES DONNA ES ASCAT DE 0630Z CONFIRME LA
STRUCTURE ENCORE FORTEMENT DISSYMA TRIQUE DU SYSTEME AVEC DES VENTS
FORTS DE L'ORDRE DE 35/40KT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST. EN
CONSEQUENCE, LE SYSTEME A A TA BAPTISE A 09Z.
NEANMOINS LE SYSTEME RESPIRE ENCORE BEAUCOUP, ET SUR LES DERNIERES
IMAGES SATELLITE, LE CENTRE APPARAIT A NOUVEAU EN BORDURE NORD DE LA
CONVECTION PROFONDE.

UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT FAIBLISSANT ET DES CONDITIONS
OCEANIQUES PLUTOT FAVORABLES DEVRAIT PERMETTRE AU SYSTEME DE
POURSUIVRE SON INTENSIFICATION.

SOUS LA POUSSE DE LA PUISSANTE DE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, LE SYSTEME
EST PREVU REMONTER EN DIRECTION DU NORD-NORD-OUEST, ET POURRAIT
EFFECTUER UN ATTERRISSAGE DANS LA REGION DE QUELIMANE. PARMI LES
MODELES DISPONIBLES, TOUS LES MODELES NE SONT PLUS EN ACCORD AVEC
CETTE PREVISION. MAIS IL RESTE ENCORE UNE GRANDE VARIABILITE DANS LES
VITESSES DE DEPLACEMENT, VOIRE DERNIA REMENT SUR LA POSSIBILITE DE
RESTER EN BORDURE DE LA COTE DU MOZAMBIQUE SANS ATTERRISSAGE, LA
PREVISIBILITE DU TIMING D'UN ATTERRISSAGE RESTE DONC FAIBLE.

NEANMOINS ON PEUT DEJA PREVOIR UNE DEGRADATION IMPORTANTE DU TEMPS
POUR LES ZONES COTIERES DU MOZAMBIQUE:
VENTS FORTS ACCOMPAGNES D'UN TEMPS A GRAINS MARQUES VONT GAGNER LA
REGION ENTRE INHAMBANE ET BEIRA DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS PUIS S'ETENDRE
LE LONG DE LA COTE AU NORD DE BEIRA LUNDI.=

>

2019-01-20 13:03

WTIO31 FMEE 201232 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/6/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6(DESMOND)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 20/01/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.3 S / 38.9 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES TROIS SUD ET TRENTE HUIT DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-NORD-EST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/0 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SO: 310 NO: 240
34 KT NE: SE: SO: 280 NO: 190


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 21/01/2019 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 38.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 21/01/2019 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 37.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 22/01/2019 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 37.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 22/01/2019 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 36.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0-.

>

2019-01-20 13:03

WTIO30 FMEE 201305
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/6/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6(DESMOND)

2.A POSITION 2019/01/20 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.3 S / 38.9 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTH-EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 310 NW: 240
34 KT NE: SE: SW: 280 NW: 190


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/01/21 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 38.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/01/21 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 37.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/01/22 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 37.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/01/22 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 36.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0-.
IN THE MORNING CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER. LAST ASCAT
DATA AT 0630Z CONFIRM LARGE DISSYMMETIE OF THE SYSTEM WITH STRONG
WINDS 35/40KT LOCATED IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CERLE QUADRANT. SO THE
SYSTEM HAS BEEN NAMED AT 09Z.
HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS FLUCTUATING, ET ON THE LAST SATELIE IMAGERY THE
CENTER SEEM TO BE NEX THE NORTHEN EDGE OF DEEP CONVECTION.

THANKS TO A WEAKENING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE OCEANIC
CONTAINS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GO ON INTENSIFYING.

DUE TO THE BUILDING STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTH-WEST, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK NORTH NORTH WEST WARDS. UNDER THIS TRACK THE
SYSTEM MAY MAKE A LANDFALL AROUND THE CITY OF QUELIMANE. SOME
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST,
BUT THERE IS YET A LARGE VARIABILITY IN THE SPEED OF TRACK OR THE
POSSIBILITY TO REMAIN NEAR THE COAST, SO THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING
OF THE LANDFALL IS WEAK.

HOWEVER, BAD WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE COASTAL AERAS OF MOZAMBIC
:
STRONGS WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS
SHOULD SPREAD BETWEEN INHAMBANE AND BEIRA ALONG THE MOZAMBIQUE COASTS
AND ALONG THE COASTS NORTH OF BEIRA ON MONDAY.=

>

2019-01-20 13:03

WTIO30 FMEE 201232 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/6/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6(DESMOND)

2.A POSITION 2019/01/20 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.3 S / 38.9 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTH-EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/0 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 310 NW: 240
34 KT NE: SE: SW: 280 NW: 190


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/01/21 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 38.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/01/21 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 37.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/01/22 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 37.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/01/22 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 36.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0-.

>

2019-01-20 13:00

WTIO31 FMEE 201232
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/6/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6(DESMOND)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 20/01/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.3 S / 38.9 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES TROIS SUD ET TRENTE HUIT DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-NORD-EST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/0 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SO: 310 NO: 240
34 KT NE: SE: SO: 280 NO: 190


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 21/01/2019 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 38.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 21/01/2019 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 37.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 22/01/2019 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 37.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 22/01/2019 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 36.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0-.
DURANT LA MATINA E LA CONVECTION S'EST NETTEMENT RENFORCEE, AU DESSUS
DU CENTRE. LES DERNIERES DONNA ES ASCAT DE 0630Z CONFIRME LA
STRUCTURE ENCORE FORTEMENT DISSYMA TRIQUE DU SYSTEME AVEC DES VENTS
FORTS DE L'ORDRE DE 35/40KT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST. EN
CONSEQUENCE, LE SYSTEME A A TA BAPTISE A 09Z.
NEANMOINS LE SYSTEME RESPIRE ENCORE BEAUCOUP, ET SUR LES DERNIERES
IMAGES SATELLITE, LE CENTRE APPARAIT A NOUVEAU EN BORDURE NORD DE LA
CONVECTION PROFONDE.

UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT FAIBLISSANT ET DES CONDITIONS
OCEANIQUES PLUTOT FAVORABLES DEVRAIT PERMETTRE AU SYSTEME DE
POURSUIVRE SON INTENSIFICATION.

SOUS LA POUSSE DE LA PUISSANTE DE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, LE SYSTEME
EST PREVU REMONTER EN DIRECTION DU NORD-NORD-OUEST, ET POURRAIT
EFFECTUER UN ATTERRISSAGE DANS LA REGION DE QUELIMANE. PARMI LES
MODELES DISPONIBLES, TOUS LES MODELES NE SONT PLUS EN ACCORD AVEC
CETTE PREVISION. MAIS IL RESTE ENCORE UNE GRANDE VARIABILITE DANS LES
VITESSES DE DEPLACEMENT, VOIRE DERNIA REMENT SUR LA POSSIBILITE DE
RESTER EN BORDURE DE LA COTE DU MOZAMBIQUE SANS ATTERRISSAGE, LA
PREVISIBILITE DU TIMING D'UN ATTERRISSAGE RESTE DONC FAIBLE.

NEANMOINS ON PEUT DEJA PREVOIR UNE DEGRADATION IMPORTANTE DU TEMPS
POUR LES ZONES COTIERES DU MOZAMBIQUE:
VENTS FORTS ACCOMPAGNES D'UN TEMPS A GRAINS MARQUES VONT GAGNER LA
REGION ENTRE INHAMBANE ET BEIRA DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS PUIS S'ETENDRE
LE LONG DE LA COTE AU NORD DE BEIRA LUNDI.=

>

2019-01-20 13:00

WTIO30 FMEE 201232
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/6/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6(DESMOND)

2.A POSITION 2019/01/20 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.3 S / 38.9 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTH-EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/0 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 310 NW: 240
34 KT NE: SE: SW: 280 NW: 190


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/01/21 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 38.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/01/21 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 37.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/01/22 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 37.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/01/22 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 36.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0-.
IN THE MORNING CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER. LAST ASCAT
DATA AT 0630Z CONFIRM LARGE DISSYMMETIE OF THE SYSTEM WITH STRONG
WINDS 35/40KT LOCATED IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CERLE QUADRANT. SO THE
SYSTEM HAS BEEN NAMED AT 09Z.
HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS FLUCTUATING, ET ON THE LAST SATELIE IMAGERY THE
CENTER SEEM TO BE NEX THE NORTHEN EDGE OF DEEP CONVECTION.

THANKS TO A WEAKENING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE OCEANIC
CONTAINS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GO ON INTENSIFYING.

DUE TO THE BUILDING STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTH-WEST, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK NORTH NORTH WEST WARDS. UNDER THIS TRACK THE
SYSTEM MAY MAKE A LANDFALL AROUND THE CITY OF QUELIMANE. SOME
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST,
BUT THERE IS YET A LARGE VARIABILITY IN THE SPEED OF TRACK OR THE
POSSIBILITY TO REMAIN NEAR THE COAST, SO THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING
OF THE LANDFALL IS WEAK.

HOWEVER, BAD WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE COASTAL AERAS OF MOZAMBIC
:
STRONGS WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS
SHOULD SPREAD BETWEEN INHAMBANE AND BEIRA ALONG THE MOZAMBIQUE COASTS
AND ALONG THE COASTS NORTH OF BEIRA ON MONDAY.=

>

2019-01-20 12:51

WTIO24 FMEE 201219
SECURITE
GALE WARNING OR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/01/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 005/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 20/01/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6(DESMOND) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.3 S / 38.9 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTH-EAST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 140 MN FROM THE CENTER MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CERCLE, AND UP TO 300 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS REACHING LOCALLY
40KT EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO
150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/01/21 AT 00 UTC:
20.7 S / 38.7 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/01/21 AT 12 UTC:
19.3 S / 37.9 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-01-20 08:04

WTXS51 PGTW 200900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 10S SIO 190120065808
2019012006 10S TEN 002 01 025 09 SATL 040
T000 229S 0388E 040 R034 065 NE QD 115 SE QD 220 SW QD 155 NW QD
T012 213S 0389E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
075 NE QD 125 SE QD 200 SW QD 180 NW QD
T024 196S 0383E 045 R034 010 NE QD 130 SE QD 190 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 183S 0376E 040 R034 020 NE QD 110 SE QD 150 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 174S 0369E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 22.9S 38.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.9S 38.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 21.3S 38.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2019-01-20 08:04

WTXS31 PGTW 200900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 22.9S 38.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.9S 38.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 21.3S 38.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 19.6S 38.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

2019-01-20 08:00

WTXS51 PGTW 200900
WARNING ATCG MIL 10S SIO 190120065808
2019012006 10S TEN 002 01 025 09 SATL 040
T000 229S 0388E 040 R034 065 NE QD 115 SE QD 220 SW QD 155 NW QD
T012 213S 0389E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 125 SE QD 200 SW QD 180 NW QD
T024 196S 0383E 045 R034 010 NE QD 130 SE QD 190 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 183S 0376E 040 R034 020 NE QD 110 SE QD 150 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 174S 0369E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 22.9S 38.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.9S 38.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 21.3S 38.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 19.6S 38.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 18.3S 37.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 17.4S 36.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 22.5S 38.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 88 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z.
//
1019011718 249S 391E 25
1019011800 244S 386E 20
1019011806 239S 380E 25
1019011812 234S 375E 25
1019011818 231S 368E 25
1019011900 236S 369E 25
1019011906 239S 372E 25
1019011912 245S 380E 25
1019011918 242S 383E 30
1019012000 237S 384E 40
1019012006 229S 388E 40
NNNN

>

2019-01-20 08:00

WTXS31 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 22.9S 38.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.9S 38.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 21.3S 38.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 19.6S 38.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 18.3S 37.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 17.4S 36.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 22.5S 38.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 88 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A LARGE, PARTIALLY EXPOSED, AND RAGGED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH A WEAK, ALBEIT CONSOLIDATING, CENTRAL
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND LINED UP WITH A
BROAD MICROWAVE LLC FEATURE IN THE 200359Z SSMIS PASS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON ON OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND
OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0 TO T2.9 AND REFLECTS THE
SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE (10-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET
BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. TC 10S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE WEST
ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AFRICA, MAKING LANDFALL AROUND TAU 42 OVER
NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS TO A PEAK OF 50 KNOTS
BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING MOSTLY DUE TO DIMINISHING OUTFLOW AND
INCREASING VWS. AFTER LANDFALL, TC 10S WILL RAPIDLY DECAY DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36 BUT SPREADS SIGNIFICANTLY
AFTERWARD. BASED ON THE FORMATIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE TRACK
UNCERTAINTY BEYOND TAU 36, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-01-20 02:16

WTXS51 PGTW 200300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 10S SIO 190120011911
2019012000 10S TEN 001 01 010 05 SATL 045
T000 237S 0384E 040 R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 140 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 223S 0388E 050 R050 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
030 NE QD 105 SE QD 165 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 203S 0384E 055 R050 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
010 NE QD 130 SE QD 190 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 189S 0377E 050 R050 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
020 NE QD 110 SE QD 150 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 179S 0370E 050 R050 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
030 NE QD 090 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 168S 0357E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 23.7S 38.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.7S 38.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 22.3S 38.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

>

2019-01-20 02:16

WTXS31 PGTW 200300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/
190351ZJAN2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 23.7S 38.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.7S 38.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 22.3S 38.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS
---

>

2019-01-20 02:07

WTXS51 PGTW 200300
WARNING ATCG MIL 10S SIO 190120011911
2019012000 10S TEN 001 01 010 05 SATL 045
T000 237S 0384E 040 R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 140 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 223S 0388E 050 R050 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 105 SE QD 165 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 203S 0384E 055 R050 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 010 NE QD 130 SE QD 190 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 189S 0377E 050 R050 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 020 NE QD 110 SE QD 150 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 179S 0370E 050 R050 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 090 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 168S 0357E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 23.7S 38.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.7S 38.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 22.3S 38.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 20.3S 38.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 18.9S 37.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 17.9S 37.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 16.8S 35.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 23.3S 38.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 134 NM SOUTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.//
1019011718 249S 391E 25
1019011800 244S 386E 20
1019011806 239S 380E 25
1019011812 234S 375E 25
1019011818 231S 368E 25
1019011900 236S 369E 25
1019011906 239S 372E 25
1019011912 245S 380E 25
1019011918 242S 383E 30
1019012000 237S 384E 40
NNNN

>

2019-01-20 02:06

WTXS31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/
190351ZJAN2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 23.7S 38.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.7S 38.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 22.3S 38.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 20.3S 38.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 18.9S 37.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 17.9S 37.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 16.8S 35.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 23.3S 38.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 134 NM
SOUTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS (KTS)
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF DEEP CONVECTION. THERE IS LIMITED CONVECTION AND
SHALLOW BANDING EQUATORWARD OF THE LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON BANDING FEATURES IN A 192301Z
AMSR2 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS
HEDGED ABOVE A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KTS) BASED
ON A PARTIAL 191932Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE WHICH SHOWED A LARGE REGION
OF 35-40 KT WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE (10-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 10S
WILL TRACK ALONG THE EASTERN TO NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THROUGH TAU 24, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO
THE SOUTH WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY WEAKEN THE STR AND ENHANCE THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, LIMITING THE FORWARD SPEED AND ALLOWING
FOR INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 24, THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL HAVE
MOVED EASTWARD ENOUGH TO NO LONGER ENHANCE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. AS A RESULT, FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WILL BE HAMPERED AND
TC 10S SHOULD ACCELERATE SLIGHTLY AS IT ROUNDS THE STR ON A
NORTHWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. AROUND TAU 48, TC 10S IS EXPECTED
TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 72
AS IT MOVES INLAND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 36 BUT THE SPREAD INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 36.
THIS SPREAD MAY BE DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE STR WEAKENING, AN
APPROACHING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FROM THE NORTHEAST, AND DIFFICULTY
TRACKING THE CIRCULATION AS TC 10S WEAKENS. BASED ON THE INCREASED
UNCERTAINTY BEYOND TAU 36, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z. THIS
CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 190400).//
NNNN

>