Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for RILEY-19
in Australia

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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2019-01-29 08:40

WTXS51 PGTW 290900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 190129075244
2019012906 11S RILEY 023 01 250 11 SATL 015
T000 192S 1063E 035 R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 199S 1045E 030
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 023
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 19.2S 106.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 106.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 19.9S 104.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 105.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (RILEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

>

2019-01-29 08:40

WTXS31 PGTW 290900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 19.2S 106.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 106.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 19.9S 104.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 105.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (RILEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE USING ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) WHICH SHOWS ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION, SHEARED TO THE
WEST OF AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY A RAGGED LLC FEATURE IN A 290608Z AMSR2 37

>

2019-01-29 08:37

WTXS51 PGTW 290900
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 190129075244
2019012906 11S RILEY 023 01 250 11 SATL 015
T000 192S 1063E 035 R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 199S 1045E 030
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 023
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 19.2S 106.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 106.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 19.9S 104.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 105.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (RILEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 11 FEET.//
1119012212 121S1261E 20
1119012218 127S1252E 20
1119012300 138S1243E 25
1119012306 147S1237E 30
1119012312 156S1229E 30
1119012318 165S1217E 35
1119012400 167S1208E 40
1119012406 166S1201E 40
1119012412 166S1197E 40
1119012418 167S1193E 45
1119012500 168S1188E 55
1119012500 168S1188E 55
1119012506 169S1182E 60
1119012506 169S1182E 60
1119012512 169S1180E 65
1119012512 169S1180E 65
1119012512 169S1180E 65
1119012518 170S1177E 70
1119012518 170S1177E 70
1119012518 170S1177E 70
1119012600 172S1174E 65
1119012600 172S1174E 65
1119012606 175S1170E 60
1119012606 175S1170E 60
1119012612 177S1163E 55
1119012612 177S1163E 55
1119012618 176S1156E 60
1119012618 176S1156E 60
1119012700 175S1148E 65
1119012700 175S1148E 65
1119012700 175S1148E 65
1119012706 177S1139E 70
1119012706 177S1139E 70
1119012706 177S1139E 70
1119012712 179S1128E 70
1119012712 179S1128E 70
1119012712 179S1128E 70
1119012718 180S1115E 70
1119012718 180S1115E 70
1119012718 180S1115E 70
1119012800 181S1107E 70
1119012800 181S1107E 70
1119012800 181S1107E 70
1119012806 182S1098E 65
1119012806 182S1098E 65
1119012806 182S1098E 65
1119012812 184S1089E 60
1119012812 184S1089E 60
1119012818 186S1080E 50
1119012818 186S1080E 50
1119012900 188S1074E 40
1119012906 192S1063E 35
NNNN

>

2019-01-29 08:35

WTXS31 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 19.2S 106.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 106.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 19.9S 104.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 105.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (RILEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE USING ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) WHICH SHOWS ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION, SHEARED TO THE
WEST OF AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY A RAGGED LLC FEATURE IN A 290608Z AMSR2 37
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND PGTW OF T2.5/35 KTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
UNFAVORABLE DESPITE MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO COOL (25-26 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE. TC 11S WILL MAINTAIN ITS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE UNTIL
DISSIPATING BY TAU 12. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 11
FEET.//
NNNN

>

2019-01-29 02:19

WTXS51 PGTW 290300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 190129005741
2019012900 11S RILEY 022 01 255 04 SATL 025
T000 187S 1075E 040 R034 045 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 030 NW QD
T012 192S 1058E 035 R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 198S 1041E 030
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 022
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 18.7S 107.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 107.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 19.2S 105.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-01-29 02:19

WTXS31 PGTW 290300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 18.7S 107.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 107.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 19.2S 105.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 19.8S 104.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 107.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (RILEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 429 NM WEST-

>

2019-01-29 02:12

WTXS51 PGTW 290300
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 190129005741
2019012900 11S RILEY 022 01 255 04 SATL 025
T000 187S 1075E 040 R034 045 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 030 NW QD
T012 192S 1058E 035 R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 198S 1041E 030
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 022
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 18.7S 107.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 107.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 19.2S 105.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 19.8S 104.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 107.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 429 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z.
//
1119012212 121S1261E 20
1119012218 127S1252E 20
1119012300 138S1243E 25
1119012306 147S1237E 30
1119012312 156S1229E 30
1119012318 165S1217E 35
1119012400 167S1208E 40
1119012406 166S1201E 40
1119012412 166S1197E 40
1119012418 167S1193E 45
1119012500 168S1188E 55
1119012500 168S1188E 55
1119012506 169S1182E 60
1119012506 169S1182E 60
1119012512 169S1180E 65
1119012512 169S1180E 65
1119012512 169S1180E 65
1119012518 170S1177E 70
1119012518 170S1177E 70
1119012518 170S1177E 70
1119012600 172S1174E 65
1119012600 172S1174E 65
1119012606 175S1170E 60
1119012606 175S1170E 60
1119012612 177S1163E 55
1119012612 177S1163E 55
1119012618 176S1156E 60
1119012618 176S1156E 60
1119012700 175S1148E 65
1119012700 175S1148E 65
1119012700 175S1148E 65
1119012706 177S1139E 70
1119012706 177S1139E 70
1119012706 177S1139E 70
1119012712 179S1128E 70
1119012712 179S1128E 70
1119012712 179S1128E 70
1119012718 180S1115E 70
1119012718 180S1115E 70
1119012718 180S1115E 70
1119012800 181S1107E 70
1119012800 181S1107E 70
1119012800 181S1107E 70
1119012806 182S1098E 65
1119012806 182S1098E 65
1119012806 182S1098E 65
1119012812 184S1089E 60
1119012812 184S1089E 60
1119012818 186S1079E 50
1119012818 186S1079E 50
1119012900 187S1075E 40
NNNN

>

2019-01-29 02:12

WTXS31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 18.7S 107.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 107.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 19.2S 105.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 19.8S 104.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 107.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (RILEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 429 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION, SHEARED WESTWARD FROM A
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE
AS EVIDENCED BY CONVECTIVE TOPS SIGNIFICANTLY WARMING UP. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND LINED UP WITH A RAGGED LLC
FEATURE IN THE 282203Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND PGTW OF T3.0/45 KTS AND
T2.5/35KTS, RESPECTIVELY, AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENED STATE OF THE
CYCLONE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES INCREASED (25-20 KNOT)
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS
OFFSETTING THE VWS AND PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE WEAKENING
CONVECTION. TC 11S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MARGINAL CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION
TO SUBSIDENCE CAUSED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST, WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO DISSIPATION
BY TAU 24. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z AND
292100Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-01-28 20:26

WTXS51 PGTW 282100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 190128190104
2019012818 11S RILEY 021 01 260 10 SATL 025
T000 186S 1079E 050 R050 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
075 NE QD 110 SE QD 095 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 191S 1063E 045 R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 197S 1045E 040 R034 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 202S 1027E 035 R034 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 205S 1011E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 021
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 18.6S 107.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S 107.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:

>

2019-01-28 20:26

WTXS31 PGTW 282100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 18.6S 107.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S 107.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.1S 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 19.7S 104.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

2019-01-28 20:16

WTXS51 PGTW 282100
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 190128190104
2019012818 11S RILEY 021 01 260 10 SATL 025
T000 186S 1079E 050 R050 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 110 SE QD 095 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 191S 1063E 045 R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 197S 1045E 040 R034 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 202S 1027E 035 R034 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 205S 1011E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 021
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 18.6S 107.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S 107.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.1S 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 19.7S 104.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 20.2S 102.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 20.5S 101.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 107.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 413 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z.
//
1119012212 121S1261E 20
1119012218 127S1252E 20
1119012300 138S1243E 25
1119012306 147S1237E 30
1119012312 156S1229E 30
1119012318 165S1217E 35
1119012400 167S1208E 40
1119012406 166S1201E 40
1119012412 166S1197E 40
1119012418 167S1193E 45
1119012500 168S1188E 55
1119012500 168S1188E 55
1119012506 169S1182E 60
1119012506 169S1182E 60
1119012512 169S1180E 65
1119012512 169S1180E 65
1119012512 169S1180E 65
1119012518 170S1177E 70
1119012518 170S1177E 70
1119012518 170S1177E 70
1119012600 172S1174E 65
1119012600 172S1174E 65
1119012606 175S1170E 60
1119012606 175S1170E 60
1119012612 177S1163E 55
1119012612 177S1163E 55
1119012618 176S1156E 60
1119012618 176S1156E 60
1119012700 175S1148E 65
1119012700 175S1148E 65
1119012700 175S1148E 65
1119012706 177S1139E 70
1119012706 177S1139E 70
1119012706 177S1139E 70
1119012712 179S1128E 70
1119012712 179S1128E 70
1119012712 179S1128E 70
1119012718 180S1115E 70
1119012718 180S1115E 70
1119012718 180S1115E 70
1119012800 181S1107E 70
1119012800 181S1107E 70
1119012800 181S1107E 70
1119012806 182S1098E 65
1119012806 182S1098E 65
1119012806 182S1098E 65
1119012812 184S1089E 60
1119012812 184S1089E 60
1119012818 186S1079E 50
1119012818 186S1079E 50
NNNN

>

2019-01-28 20:15

WTXS31 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 18.6S 107.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S 107.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.1S 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 19.7S 104.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 20.2S 102.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 20.5S 101.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 107.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (RILEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 413 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE AND REMAINS
SHEARED WESTWARD FROM A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 281444Z 25KM
RESOLUTION ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS AND SUPPORTED BY KNES AND PGTW DVORAK
FIXES OF T3.0 AND T4.0, RESPECTIVELY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
MARGINAL WITH MODERATE (20-KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
OFFSET BY GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND COOLING SST (25-26C). TC 11S
IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MARGINAL CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION TO
SUBSIDENCE CAUSED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST, WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO DISSIPATION
BY TAU 48. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36
WITH SIGNIFICANT SPREADING AFTERWARD. THERE IS OVERALL FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z,
291500Z AND 292100Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-01-28 14:46

WTXS51 PGTW 281500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 190128130747
2019012812 11S RILEY 020 01 255 09 SATL 030
T000 184S 1089E 060 R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
080 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 188S 1073E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
080 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 193S 1057E 045 R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 198S 1040E 040 R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 202S 1021E 035 R034 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 202S 0988E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 020
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 18.4S 108.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-01-28 14:46

WTXS31 PGTW 281500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 18.4S 108.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 108.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 18.8S 107.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-01-28 14:15

WTXS51 PGTW 281500
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 190128130747
2019012812 11S RILEY 020 01 255 09 SATL 030
T000 184S 1089E 060 R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 188S 1073E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 193S 1057E 045 R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 198S 1040E 040 R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 202S 1021E 035 R034 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 202S 0988E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 020
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 18.4S 108.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 108.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 18.8S 107.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 19.3S 105.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 19.8S 104.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 20.2S 102.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 20.2S 98.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 108.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (RILEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.//
1119012212 121S1261E 20
1119012218 127S1252E 20
1119012300 138S1243E 25
1119012306 147S1237E 30
1119012312 156S1229E 30
1119012318 165S1217E 35
1119012400 167S1208E 40
1119012406 166S1201E 40
1119012412 166S1197E 40
1119012418 167S1193E 45
1119012500 168S1188E 55
1119012500 168S1188E 55
1119012506 169S1182E 60
1119012506 169S1182E 60
1119012512 169S1180E 65
1119012512 169S1180E 65
1119012512 169S1180E 65
1119012518 170S1177E 70
1119012518 170S1177E 70
1119012518 170S1177E 70
1119012600 172S1174E 65
1119012600 172S1174E 65
1119012606 175S1170E 60
1119012606 175S1170E 60
1119012612 177S1163E 55
1119012612 177S1163E 55
1119012618 176S1156E 60
1119012618 176S1156E 60
1119012700 175S1148E 65
1119012700 175S1148E 65
1119012700 175S1148E 65
1119012706 177S1139E 70
1119012706 177S1139E 70
1119012706 177S1139E 70
1119012712 179S1128E 70
1119012712 179S1128E 70
1119012712 179S1128E 70
1119012718 180S1115E 70
1119012718 180S1115E 70
1119012718 180S1115E 70
1119012800 181S1107E 70
1119012800 181S1107E 70
1119012800 181S1107E 70
1119012806 182S1098E 65
1119012806 182S1098E 65
1119012806 182S1098E 65
1119012812 184S1089E 60
1119012812 184S1089E 60
NNNN

>

2019-01-28 14:00

WTXS31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 18.4S 108.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 108.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 18.8S 107.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 19.3S 105.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 19.8S 104.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 20.2S 102.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 20.2S 98.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 108.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (RILEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF CORE CONVECTION
AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING DUE TO PERSISTENT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). A 281120Z SSMIS 91GHZ COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE (MI),
HOWEVER, INDICATES THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE MI SUPPORTS THE
INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 3.5 (55 KNOTS) TO 4.0 (65 KNOTS).
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20 TO
25 KNOTS) EASTERLY VWS OFFSET BY GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND
MARGINAL SST (25-26C). TC 11S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH A 75NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS. AFTER TAU
48, THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SPREADS OUT WITH A 205NM SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72 LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TRACK. TC 11S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-01-28 08:37

WTXS51 PGTW 280900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 190128071042
2019012806 11S RILEY 019 01 255 11 SATL 030
T000 184S 1096E 070 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD
090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 186S 1079E 065 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD
080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 190S 1063E 055 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
080 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 193S 1046E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
060 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 196S 1027E 045 R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 199S 0995E 035 R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 200S 0965E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 019
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 18.4S 109.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-01-28 08:28

WTXS51 PGTW 280900
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 190128071042
2019012806 11S RILEY 019 01 255 11 SATL 030
T000 184S 1096E 070 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 186S 1079E 065 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 190S 1063E 055 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 193S 1046E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 196S 1027E 045 R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 199S 0995E 035 R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 200S 0965E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 019
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 18.4S 109.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 109.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 18.6S 107.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.0S 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 19.3S 104.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 19.6S 102.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 19.9S 99.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 20.0S 96.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 109.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (RILEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z AND 290900Z.//
1119012212 121S1261E 20
1119012218 127S1252E 20
1119012300 138S1243E 25
1119012306 147S1237E 30
1119012312 156S1229E 30
1119012318 165S1217E 35
1119012400 167S1208E 40
1119012406 166S1201E 40
1119012412 166S1197E 40
1119012418 167S1193E 45
1119012500 168S1188E 55
1119012500 168S1188E 55
1119012506 169S1182E 60
1119012506 169S1182E 60
1119012512 169S1180E 65
1119012512 169S1180E 65
1119012512 169S1180E 65
1119012518 170S1177E 70
1119012518 170S1177E 70
1119012518 170S1177E 70
1119012600 172S1174E 65
1119012600 172S1174E 65
1119012606 175S1170E 60
1119012606 175S1170E 60
1119012612 177S1163E 55
1119012612 177S1163E 55
1119012618 176S1156E 60
1119012618 176S1156E 60
1119012700 175S1148E 65
1119012700 175S1148E 65
1119012700 175S1148E 65
1119012706 177S1139E 70
1119012706 177S1139E 70
1119012706 177S1139E 70
1119012712 179S1128E 70
1119012712 179S1128E 70
1119012712 179S1128E 70
1119012718 180S1115E 70
1119012718 180S1115E 70
1119012718 180S1115E 70
1119012800 181S1107E 70
1119012800 181S1107E 70
1119012800 181S1107E 70
1119012806 184S1096E 70
1119012806 184S1096E 70
1119012806 184S1096E 70
NNNN

>

2019-01-28 08:22

WTXS31 PGTW 280900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 18.4S 109.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 109.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 18.6S 107.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-01-28 08:06

WTXS31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 18.4S 109.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 109.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 18.6S 107.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.0S 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 19.3S 104.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 19.6S 102.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 19.9S 99.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 20.0S 96.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 109.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (RILEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
CLOUD-FILLED EYE. A 280212Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, HOWEVER,
INDICATES THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE AND TIGHTLY-
CURVED SHALLOW BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. OVERALL, THERE
IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 4.0 (65 KNOTS) TO 4.5 (77 KNOTS).
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20 TO
25 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, AND MARGINAL SST (25-26C). TC 11S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
AVNI AND AEMI, WHICH ARE THE PRIMARY OUTLIERS, THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 115NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT
TAU 96, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 11S
IS FORECAST TO STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
280600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z AND
290900Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-01-28 02:19

WTXS51 PGTW 280300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 190128014531
2019012800 11S RILEY 018 01 270 10 SATL 040
T000 180S 1106E 070 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 060 SE QD 075 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 100 SE QD
100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 181S 1087E 060 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
090 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 184S 1070E 050 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
080 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 188S 1054E 045 R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 192S 1037E 040 R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 195S 1003E 035 R034 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 196S 0975E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 018
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 18.0S 110.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2019-01-28 02:18

WTXS31 PGTW 280300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 18.0S 110.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 110.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.1S 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-01-28 02:15

WTXS51 PGTW 280300
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 190128014531
2019012800 11S RILEY 018 01 270 10 SATL 040
T000 180S 1106E 070 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 075 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 181S 1087E 060 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 184S 1070E 050 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 188S 1054E 045 R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 192S 1037E 040 R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 195S 1003E 035 R034 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 196S 0975E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 018
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 18.0S 110.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 110.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.1S 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 18.4S 107.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 18.8S 105.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 19.2S 103.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 19.5S 100.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 19.6S 97.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 110.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z.
//
1119012212 121S1261E 20
1119012218 127S1252E 20
1119012300 138S1243E 25
1119012306 147S1237E 30
1119012312 156S1229E 30
1119012318 165S1217E 35
1119012400 167S1208E 40
1119012406 166S1201E 40
1119012412 166S1197E 40
1119012418 167S1193E 45
1119012500 168S1188E 55
1119012500 168S1188E 55
1119012506 169S1182E 60
1119012506 169S1182E 60
1119012512 169S1180E 65
1119012512 169S1180E 65
1119012512 169S1180E 65
1119012518 170S1177E 70
1119012518 170S1177E 70
1119012518 170S1177E 70
1119012600 172S1174E 65
1119012600 172S1174E 65
1119012606 175S1170E 60
1119012606 175S1170E 60
1119012612 177S1163E 55
1119012612 177S1163E 55
1119012618 176S1156E 60
1119012618 176S1156E 60
1119012700 175S1148E 65
1119012700 175S1148E 65
1119012700 175S1148E 65
1119012706 177S1139E 70
1119012706 177S1139E 70
1119012706 177S1139E 70
1119012712 179S1129E 70
1119012712 179S1129E 70
1119012712 179S1129E 70
1119012718 180S1116E 70
1119012718 180S1116E 70
1119012718 180S1116E 70
1119012800 180S1106E 70
1119012800 180S1106E 70
1119012800 180S1106E 70
NNNN

>

2019-01-28 02:14

WTXS31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 18.0S 110.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 110.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.1S 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 18.4S 107.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 18.8S 105.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 19.2S 103.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 19.5S 100.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 19.6S 97.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 110.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS SLIGHTLY WARMER AND ELONGATED CENTRAL CONVECTION
BEING SHEARED TO THE WEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON A 272246Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE WITH A MICROWAVE EYE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.0 (65 KNOTS) TO T4.5 (77
KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH
MODERATE (20-25 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS (28-29C). ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE APPEARS TO BE BEGINNING TO UNRAVEL, IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME
TO SPIN DOWN. TC 11S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO ITS SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AVNI
AND AEMI, WHICH ARE THE PRIMARY OUTLIERS TO THE SOUTH, THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 140NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT
TAU 96, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS
PLACED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TOWARDS THE
ECMWF SOLUTION. TC 11S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A STEADY WEAKENING TREND
AND THEN DISSIPATE BY TAU 96 DUE TO WEAKENING OUTFLOW AND COOLING
SSTS, WHICH WILL DIP BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS AFTER TAU 18. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z.
//
NNNN

>

2019-01-27 20:27

WTXS51 PGTW 272100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 190127193307
2019012718 11S RILEY 017 01 265 12 SATL 060
T000 180S 1116E 070 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 105 SE QD
095 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 182S 1095E 065 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD
080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 184S 1077E 060 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 188S 1062E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 192S 1046E 045 R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 197S 1011E 040 R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 200S 0982E 035 R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 201S 0951E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 017
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 18.0S 111.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2019-01-27 20:27

WTXS31 PGTW 272100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 18.0S 111.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 111.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 18.2S 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-01-27 20:09

WTXS51 PGTW 272100
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 190127193307
2019012718 11S RILEY 017 01 265 12 SATL 060
T000 180S 1116E 070 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 105 SE QD 095 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 182S 1095E 065 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 184S 1077E 060 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 188S 1062E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 192S 1046E 045 R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 197S 1011E 040 R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 200S 0982E 035 R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 201S 0951E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 017
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 18.0S 111.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 111.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 18.2S 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 18.4S 107.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 18.8S 106.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 19.2S 104.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 19.7S 101.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 20.0S 98.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 20.1S 95.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 111.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 294 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z AND 282100Z.
//
1119012212 121S1261E 20
1119012218 127S1252E 20
1119012300 138S1243E 25
1119012306 147S1237E 30
1119012312 156S1229E 30
1119012318 165S1217E 35
1119012400 167S1208E 40
1119012406 166S1201E 40
1119012412 166S1197E 40
1119012418 167S1193E 45
1119012500 168S1188E 55
1119012500 168S1188E 55
1119012506 169S1182E 60
1119012506 169S1182E 60
1119012512 169S1180E 65
1119012512 169S1180E 65
1119012512 169S1180E 65
1119012518 170S1177E 70
1119012518 170S1177E 70
1119012518 170S1177E 70
1119012600 172S1174E 65
1119012600 172S1174E 65
1119012606 175S1170E 60
1119012606 175S1170E 60
1119012612 177S1163E 55
1119012612 177S1163E 55
1119012618 176S1156E 60
1119012618 176S1156E 60
1119012700 175S1148E 65
1119012700 175S1148E 65
1119012700 175S1148E 65
1119012706 177S1139E 70
1119012706 177S1139E 70
1119012706 177S1139E 70
1119012712 179S1129E 70
1119012712 179S1129E 70
1119012712 179S1129E 70
1119012718 180S1116E 70
1119012718 180S1116E 70
1119012718 180S1116E 70
NNNN

>

2019-01-27 20:08

WTXS31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 18.0S 111.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 111.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 18.2S 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 18.4S 107.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 18.8S 106.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 19.2S 104.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 19.7S 101.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 20.0S 98.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 20.1S 95.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 111.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 294 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS RENEWED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE ON INFLOW UNDER THE CONVECTION IN THE IR LOOP. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.0 (65 KNOTS) TO T4.5 (77
KNOTS). A 271429Z SATCON ESTIMATE WAS 72 KTS, SUPPORTING THE INITIAL
INTENSITY. WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED USING A 271432Z ASCAT PASS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE
(20-25 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS (28-29C). TC 11S IS FORECAST TO
TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF AVNI AND AEMI, WHICH ARE THE PRIMARY OUTLIERS TO
THE SOUTH, THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 130NM
SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 120, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS PLACED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. TC 11S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND DUE TO WEAKENING OUTFLOW AND COOLING SSTS,
WHICH WILL DIP BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS AFTER TAU 24. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z AND 282100Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-01-27 14:36

WTXS51 PGTW 271500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 190127132130
2019012712 11S RILEY 016 01 260 10 SATL 020
T000 179S 1129E 070 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 115 SE QD
080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 182S 1106E 070 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD
080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 185S 1088E 060 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
090 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 188S 1074E 050 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 193S 1059E 045 R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 201S 1028E 040 R034 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 207S 0999E 035 R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 210S 0971E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 17.9S 112.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2019-01-27 14:30

WTXS51 PGTW 271500
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 190127132130
2019012712 11S RILEY 016 01 260 10 SATL 020
T000 179S 1129E 070 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 115 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 182S 1106E 070 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 185S 1088E 060 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 188S 1074E 050 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 193S 1059E 045 R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 201S 1028E 040 R034 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 207S 0999E 035 R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 210S 0971E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 17.9S 112.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 112.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 18.2S 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.5S 108.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 18.8S 107.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 19.3S 105.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 20.1S 102.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 20.7S 99.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 21.0S 97.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 112.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (RILEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 273 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z.//
1119012212 121S1261E 20
1119012218 127S1252E 20
1119012300 138S1243E 25
1119012306 147S1237E 30
1119012312 156S1229E 30
1119012318 165S1217E 35
1119012400 167S1208E 40
1119012406 166S1201E 40
1119012412 166S1197E 40
1119012418 167S1193E 45
1119012500 168S1188E 55
1119012500 168S1188E 55
1119012506 169S1182E 60
1119012506 169S1182E 60
1119012512 169S1180E 65
1119012512 169S1180E 65
1119012512 169S1180E 65
1119012518 170S1177E 70
1119012518 170S1177E 70
1119012518 170S1177E 70
1119012600 172S1174E 65
1119012600 172S1174E 65
1119012606 175S1170E 60
1119012606 175S1170E 60
1119012612 177S1163E 55
1119012612 177S1163E 55
1119012618 176S1156E 60
1119012618 176S1156E 60
1119012700 175S1148E 65
1119012700 175S1148E 65
1119012700 175S1148E 65
1119012706 177S1139E 70
1119012706 177S1139E 70
1119012706 177S1139E 70
1119012712 179S1129E 70
1119012712 179S1129E 70
1119012712 179S1129E 70
NNNN

>

2019-01-27 14:30

WTXS31 PGTW 271500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 17.9S 112.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 112.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 18.2S 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-01-27 14:25

WTXS31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 17.9S 112.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 112.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 18.2S 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.5S 108.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 18.8S 107.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 19.3S 105.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 20.1S 102.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 20.7S 99.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 21.0S 97.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 112.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (RILEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 273 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 271133Z SSMIS 37GHZ COLOR MICROWAVE IMAGE (MI)
SHOWS THE BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE WITH A WEAK EYEWALL SURROUNDING A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE,
WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.0 (65 KNOTS) TO T4.5 (77
KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH
LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET
BY GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST (28-29C). TC 11S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AVNI AND AEMI, WHICH ARE THE PRIMARY
OUTLIERS, THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 120NM
SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 120, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. TC 11S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AT 70 KNOTS
THROUGH TAU 12 WITH STEADY WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO
COOLER SST (LESS THAN 25C). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
271200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND
281500Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-01-27 09:07

WTXS51 PGTW 270900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 190127072338
2019012706 11S RILEY 015 01 265 10 SATL 030
T000 176S 1138E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 115 SE QD
085 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 179S 1116E 075 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD
090 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 181S 1094E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD
080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 185S 1078E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
090 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 190S 1060E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 198S 1027E 040 R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 205S 0998E 035 R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 210S 0967E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 17.6S 113.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

>

2019-01-27 08:35

WTXS31 PGTW 270900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 17.6S 113.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 113.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 17.9S 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-01-27 08:34

WTXS51 PGTW 270900
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 190127072338
2019012706 11S RILEY 015 01 265 10 SATL 030
T000 176S 1138E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 115 SE QD 085 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 179S 1116E 075 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 181S 1094E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 185S 1078E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 190S 1060E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 198S 1027E 040 R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 205S 0998E 035 R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 210S 0967E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 17.6S 113.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 113.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 17.9S 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 18.1S 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 18.5S 107.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.0S 106.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 19.8S 102.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 20.5S 99.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 21.0S 96.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 113.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (RILEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 283 NM NORTH
OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 271500Z, 272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z.//
1119012212 121S1261E 20
1119012218 127S1252E 20
1119012300 138S1243E 25
1119012306 147S1237E 30
1119012312 156S1229E 30
1119012318 165S1217E 35
1119012400 167S1208E 40
1119012406 166S1201E 40
1119012412 166S1197E 40
1119012418 167S1193E 45
1119012500 168S1188E 55
1119012500 168S1188E 55
1119012506 169S1182E 60
1119012506 169S1182E 60
1119012512 169S1180E 65
1119012512 169S1180E 65
1119012512 169S1180E 65
1119012518 170S1177E 70
1119012518 170S1177E 70
1119012518 170S1177E 70
1119012600 172S1174E 65
1119012600 172S1174E 65
1119012606 175S1170E 60
1119012606 175S1170E 60
1119012612 177S1163E 55
1119012612 177S1163E 55
1119012618 176S1156E 60
1119012618 176S1156E 60
1119012700 175S1148E 65
1119012700 175S1148E 65
1119012700 175S1148E 65
1119012706 176S1138E 70
1119012706 176S1138E 70
1119012706 176S1138E 70
NNNN

>

2019-01-27 08:29

WTXS31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 17.6S 113.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 113.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 17.9S 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 18.1S 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 18.5S 107.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.0S 106.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 19.8S 102.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 20.5S 99.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 21.0S 96.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 113.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (RILEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 283 NM NORTH
OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A CLOUD-FILLED EYE. A 270620Z
AMSR2 36GHZ COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE (MI) SHOWS THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH A WEAK EYEWALL
SURROUNDING A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE MSI AND MI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.0 (65 KNOTS) TO T4.5 (77 KNOTS),
CONSISTENT WITH A 27/0159Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 71 KNOTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH
LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST (28-29C). TC
11S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AVNI AND AEMI, WHICH
ERRONEOUSLY RECURVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE LOW-LEVEL STR,
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 100NM SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS AT TAU 120, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. TC 11S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 75 KNOTS BY
TAU 12 AS VWS RELAXES, HOWEVER, STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER
TAU 36 DUE TO COOLER SST (LESS THAN 25C). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z, 272100Z,
280300Z AND 280900Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-01-27 02:07

WTXS51 PGTW 270300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 190127015026
2019012700 11S RILEY 014 01 270 08 SATL 040
T000 178S 1151E 065 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 060 SE QD 065 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 115 SE QD
125 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 180S 1130E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD
090 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 183S 1108E 065 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD
080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 186S 1088E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
090 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 190S 1073E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 196S 1042E 040 R034 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD
T096 204S 1009E 035 R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD
T120 205S 0978E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 17.8S 115.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

>

2019-01-27 02:07

WTXS31 PGTW 270300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 17.8S 115.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 115.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 18.0S 113.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-01-27 02:03

WTXS51 PGTW 270300
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 190127015026
2019012700 11S RILEY 014 01 270 08 SATL 040
T000 178S 1151E 065 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 065 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 115 SE QD 125 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 180S 1130E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 183S 1108E 065 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 186S 1088E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 190S 1073E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 196S 1042E 040 R034 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD
T096 204S 1009E 035 R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD
T120 205S 0978E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 17.8S 115.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 115.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 18.0S 113.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 18.3S 110.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.6S 108.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 19.0S 107.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 19.6S 104.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 20.4S 100.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 20.5S 97.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 114.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 276 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z.
//
1119012212 121S1261E 20
1119012218 127S1252E 20
1119012300 138S1243E 25
1119012306 147S1237E 30
1119012312 156S1229E 30
1119012318 165S1217E 35
1119012400 167S1208E 40
1119012406 166S1201E 40
1119012412 166S1197E 40
1119012418 167S1193E 45
1119012500 168S1188E 55
1119012500 168S1188E 55
1119012506 169S1182E 60
1119012506 169S1182E 60
1119012512 169S1180E 65
1119012512 169S1180E 65
1119012512 169S1180E 65
1119012518 170S1177E 70
1119012518 170S1177E 70
1119012518 170S1177E 70
1119012600 172S1174E 65
1119012600 172S1174E 65
1119012606 175S1170E 60
1119012606 175S1170E 60
1119012612 177S1165E 55
1119012612 177S1165E 55
1119012618 178S1159E 60
1119012618 178S1159E 60
1119012700 178S1151E 65
1119012700 178S1151E 65
1119012700 178S1151E 65
NNNN

>

2019-01-27 02:02

WTXS31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 17.8S 115.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 115.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 18.0S 113.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 18.3S 110.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.6S 108.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 19.0S 107.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 19.6S 104.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 20.4S 100.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 20.5S 97.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 114.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 276 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A WELL-ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO CENTRAL COLD CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE ON A MICROWAVE EYE IN A 262259Z SSMIS
37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65
KNOTS, IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PGTW AND APRF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KTS), AND BELOW THE KNES ESTIMATE WHICH WAS
RAISED TO T4.5 (77 KTS). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (15 TO 25 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), FAIR WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SSTS (29-
30C). TC 11S HAS TRACKED ALMOST DUE WESTWARD OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS
AS A STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILT IN TO ITS SOUTH. TC 11S WILL
CONTINUE WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT ITS FORECAST TRACK.
GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE ARE THE SOUTHERN OUTLIERS IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE, AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM UNREALISTICALLY INTO RIDGING TO THE
SOUTH. OTHERWISE, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONSENSUS BEING DRAGGED SOUTHWARD BY
THE GFS-BASED MODELS. TC 11S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO 70
KTS BY TAU 12, THEN BEGIN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AFTER IT CROSSES
THE 26 DEGREE CELSIUS SST ISOTHERM AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
DIMINISHES, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z,
271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-01-26 20:35

WTXS51 PGTW 262100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 190126191311
2019012618 11S RILEY 013 01 260 06 SATL 060
T000 178S 1159E 060 R050 045 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
095 NE QD 115 SE QD 105 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 180S 1141E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
110 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 184S 1117E 060 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
100 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 187S 1095E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
090 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 192S 1074E 050 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
080 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 201S 1037E 040 R034 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD
T096 206S 1003E 035 R034 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD
T120 206S 0968E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 17.8S 115.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2019-01-26 20:35

WTXS31 PGTW 262100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 17.8S 115.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 115.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 18.0S 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-01-26 20:05

WTXS51 PGTW 262100
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 190126191311
2019012618 11S RILEY 013 01 260 06 SATL 060
T000 178S 1159E 060 R050 045 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 115 SE QD 105 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 180S 1141E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 184S 1117E 060 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 187S 1095E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 192S 1074E 050 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 201S 1037E 040 R034 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD
T096 206S 1003E 035 R034 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD
T120 206S 0968E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 17.8S 115.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 115.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 18.0S 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 18.4S 111.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 18.7S 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 19.2S 107.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 20.1S 103.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 20.6S 100.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 20.6S 96.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 115.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 288 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 270300Z, 270900Z, 271500Z AND 272100Z.
//
1119012212 121S1261E 20
1119012218 127S1252E 20
1119012300 138S1243E 25
1119012306 147S1237E 30
1119012312 156S1229E 30
1119012318 165S1217E 35
1119012400 167S1208E 40
1119012406 166S1201E 40
1119012412 166S1197E 40
1119012418 167S1193E 45
1119012500 168S1188E 55
1119012500 168S1188E 55
1119012506 169S1182E 60
1119012506 169S1182E 60
1119012512 169S1180E 65
1119012512 169S1180E 65
1119012512 169S1180E 65
1119012518 170S1177E 70
1119012518 170S1177E 70
1119012518 170S1177E 70
1119012600 172S1174E 65
1119012600 172S1174E 65
1119012606 175S1170E 60
1119012606 175S1170E 60
1119012612 177S1165E 55
1119012612 177S1165E 55
1119012618 178S1159E 60
1119012618 178S1159E 60
NNNN

>

2019-01-26 20:03

WTXS31 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 17.8S 115.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 115.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 18.0S 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 18.4S 111.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 18.7S 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 19.2S 107.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 20.1S 103.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 20.6S 100.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 20.6S 96.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 115.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 288 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BURGEONING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
FEATURE AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS COVERING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THE LLCC OBSCURED IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS RAISED
TO 60 KNOTS, BELOW THE PGTW, KNES, AND APRF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KTS), BASED ON THE CDO FEATURE. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (15
TO 25 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), DIMINISHING OUTFLOW
ALOFT, AND WARM SSTS (29-30C). THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE SOUTH WAS BRIEFLY DISRUPTED BY A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH MOVING
OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA, BUT THE STR IS REBUILDING, AND TC 11S HAS
TRACKED ALMOST DUE WESTWARD OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. TC 11S TO RESUME
A WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE ARE THE SOUTHERN OUTLIERS IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE, AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM UNREALISTICALLY SOUTHWEST INTO
RIDGING TO THE SOUTH. OTHERWISE, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, AND THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. TC 11S IS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BEFORE VWS
INCREASES AGAIN AND THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE 26 DEGREE CELSIUS SST
ISOTHERM, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z,
270900Z, 271500Z AND 272100Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-01-26 14:47

WTXS51 PGTW 261500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 190126134750
2019012612 11S RILEY 012 01 245 05 SATL 030
T000 177S 1165E 055 R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 065 NW QD R034
120 NE QD 135 SE QD 115 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 180S 1145E 060 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
110 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 184S 1122E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
110 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 188S 1099E 055 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
100 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 192S 1078E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
090 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 201S 1038E 040 R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 207S 0998E 035 R034 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD
T120 210S 0960E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 17.7S 116.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2019-01-26 14:47

WTXS31 PGTW 261500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 17.7S 116.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 116.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 18.0S 114.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-01-26 14:42

WTXS31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 17.7S 116.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 116.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 18.0S 114.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 18.4S 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 18.8S 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 19.2S 107.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 20.1S 103.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 20.7S 99.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 21.0S 96.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 116.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (RILEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 307 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS RENEWED DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING
OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 261030Z WINDSAT
37GHZ COLOR MICROWAVE IMAGE (MI) DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED SHALLOW
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC WITH A CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BAND OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THE MI SUPPORTS THE INITIAL
POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
55 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 3.0/4.0 FROM BOTH PGTW AND
KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 25 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST (29-30C). AS A
DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA, TC 11S
ABRUPTLY TURNED SOUTHWESTWARD, HOWEVER, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
IS FORECAST TO RE-BUILD QUICKLY TO THE SOUTH, WHICH WILL ALLOW TC
11S TO RESUME A WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AVNI AND AEMI, WHICH
ERRONEOUSLY RECURVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOW-LEVEL STR, THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 120NM SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS AT TAU 120, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. TC 11S IS FORECAST TO REINTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS BY
TAU 12 AS VWS RELAXES, HOWEVER, STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER
TAU 48 DUE TO COOLER SST (LESS THAN 25C). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z,
270900Z AND 271500Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-01-26 14:38

WTXS51 PGTW 261500
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 190126134750
2019012612 11S RILEY 012 01 245 05 SATL 030
T000 177S 1165E 055 R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 135 SE QD 115 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 180S 1145E 060 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 184S 1122E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 188S 1099E 055 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 192S 1078E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 201S 1038E 040 R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 207S 0998E 035 R034 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD
T120 210S 0960E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 17.7S 116.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 116.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 18.0S 114.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 18.4S 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 18.8S 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 19.2S 107.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 20.1S 103.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 20.7S 99.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 21.0S 96.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 116.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (RILEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 307 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND 271500Z.//
1119012212 121S1261E 20
1119012218 127S1252E 20
1119012300 138S1243E 25
1119012306 147S1237E 30
1119012312 156S1229E 30
1119012318 165S1217E 35
1119012400 167S1208E 40
1119012406 166S1201E 40
1119012412 166S1197E 40
1119012418 167S1193E 45
1119012500 168S1188E 55
1119012500 168S1188E 55
1119012506 169S1182E 60
1119012506 169S1182E 60
1119012512 169S1180E 65
1119012512 169S1180E 65
1119012512 169S1180E 65
1119012518 170S1177E 70
1119012518 170S1177E 70
1119012518 170S1177E 70
1119012600 172S1174E 65
1119012600 172S1174E 65
1119012606 175S1170E 60
1119012606 175S1170E 60
1119012612 177S1165E 55
1119012612 177S1165E 55
NNNN

>

2019-01-26 09:15

WTXS51 PGTW 260900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 190126073831
2019012606 11S RILEY 011 01 225 04 SATL 030
T000 175S 1171E 060 R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034
150 NE QD 125 SE QD 125 SW QD 150 NW QD
T012 180S 1154E 065 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD
120 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 183S 1131E 070 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD
110 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 187S 1107E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD
100 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 191S 1085E 055 R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
110 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 200S 1045E 040 R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 208S 1005E 035 R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 212S 0967E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 17.5S 117.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

>

2019-01-26 09:15

WTXS31 PGTW 260900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 17.5S 117.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 117.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 18.0S 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-01-26 08:55

WTXS51 PGTW 260900
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 190126073831
2019012606 11S RILEY 011 01 225 04 SATL 030
T000 175S 1171E 060 R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 125 SE QD 125 SW QD 150 NW QD
T012 180S 1154E 065 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 183S 1131E 070 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 187S 1107E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 191S 1085E 055 R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 200S 1045E 040 R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 208S 1005E 035 R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 212S 0967E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 17.5S 117.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 117.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 18.0S 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 18.3S 113.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 18.7S 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 19.1S 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 20.0S 104.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 20.8S 100.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 21.2S 96.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 116.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (RILEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 334 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z.//
1119012212 121S1261E 20
1119012218 127S1252E 20
1119012300 138S1243E 25
1119012306 147S1237E 30
1119012312 156S1229E 30
1119012318 165S1217E 35
1119012400 167S1208E 40
1119012406 166S1201E 40
1119012412 166S1197E 40
1119012418 167S1193E 45
1119012500 168S1188E 55
1119012500 168S1188E 55
1119012506 169S1182E 60
1119012506 169S1182E 60
1119012512 169S1180E 65
1119012512 169S1180E 65
1119012512 169S1180E 65
1119012518 170S1177E 70
1119012518 170S1177E 70
1119012518 170S1177E 70
1119012600 172S1174E 65
1119012600 172S1174E 65
1119012606 175S1171E 60
1119012606 175S1171E 60
NNNN

>

2019-01-26 08:55

WTXS31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 17.5S 117.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 117.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 18.0S 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 18.3S 113.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 18.7S 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 19.1S 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 20.0S 104.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 20.8S 100.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 21.2S 96.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 116.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (RILEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 334 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH RAPIDLY WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING DISPLACED TO THE
NORTHWEST. THIS DECOUPLING IS CLEARLY EVIDENT IN A 260538Z AMSR2
89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE (MI), WHICH SHOWS TIGHTLY-
CURVED SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LLCC AND RAGGED
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE MI AND MSI
SUPPORT THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. BASED ON THE
DECAYING CONVECTIVE BANDING, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60
KNOTS, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES
OF 3.5/4.5 AND 3.5/4.0, RESPECTIVELY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 25 KNOTS)
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AND WARM SST (29-30C). AS A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATED OVER
WESTERN AUSTRALIA, TC 11S ABRUPTLY TURNED SOUTHWESTWARD, HOWEVER,
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO RE-BUILD QUICKLY TO THE SOUTH,
WHICH WILL ALLOW TC 11S TO RESUME A WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AVNI AND
AEMI, WHICH ERRONEOUSLY RECURVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD, THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 125NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT
TAU 120, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 11S
IS FORECAST TO REINTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 12 AS VWS
RELAXES, HOWEVER, STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER TAU 48 DUE TO
COOLER SST (LESS THAN 25C). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
260600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND
270900Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-01-26 02:48

WTXS51 PGTW 260300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 190126013835
2019012600 11S RILEY 010 01 255 04 SATL 060
T000 169S 1171E 070 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD
120 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 173S 1155E 070 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD
120 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 175S 1136E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD
110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 177S 1112E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD
100 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 179S 1089E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
100 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 189S 1050E 045 R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 195S 1010E 040 R034 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 199S 0983E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 16.9S 117.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

>

2019-01-26 02:48

WTXS31 PGTW 260300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 16.9S 117.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 117.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 17.3S 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-01-26 02:09

WTXS51 PGTW 260300
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 190126013835
2019012600 11S RILEY 010 01 255 04 SATL 060
T000 169S 1171E 070 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 120 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 173S 1155E 070 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 175S 1136E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 177S 1112E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 179S 1089E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 189S 1050E 045 R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 195S 1010E 040 R034 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 199S 0983E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 16.9S 117.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 117.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 17.3S 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 17.5S 113.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 17.7S 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 17.9S 108.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 18.9S 105.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 19.5S 101.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 19.9S 98.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 116.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 366 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z.
//
1119012212 121S1261E 20
1119012218 127S1252E 20
1119012300 138S1243E 25
1119012306 147S1237E 30
1119012312 156S1229E 30
1119012318 165S1217E 35
1119012400 167S1208E 40
1119012406 166S1201E 40
1119012412 166S1197E 40
1119012418 167S1193E 45
1119012500 168S1188E 55
1119012500 168S1188E 55
1119012506 169S1182E 60
1119012506 169S1182E 60
1119012512 169S1179E 65
1119012512 169S1179E 65
1119012512 169S1179E 65
1119012518 168S1175E 70
1119012518 168S1175E 70
1119012518 168S1175E 70
1119012600 169S1171E 70
1119012600 169S1171E 70
1119012600 169S1171E 70
NNNN

>

2019-01-26 02:08

WTXS31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 16.9S 117.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 117.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 17.3S 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 17.5S 113.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 17.7S 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 17.9S 108.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 18.9S 105.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 19.5S 101.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 19.9S 98.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 116.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 366 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS WELL-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO
THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE ON
WRAPPING IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KTS IS BASED
ON THE FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND FALLS BETWEEN DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KTS) FROM PGTW AND T4.0 (65 KTS)
FROM KNES AND APRF, WHILE A 252015Z SATCON ESTIMATE IS 62 KTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING IN AN AREA
OF MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT IS, FOR NOW,
OFFSET BY STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (30-32
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). HOWEVER, THE PREVIOUS
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE HAS DISSOLVED INTO CONVECTIVE
BANDING, AND THE HIGH VWS IS APPARENT IN THE DISPLACEMENT BETWEEN
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND CONVECTION ALOFT SEEN IN
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. TC 11S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 12, INCREASING VWS, DIMINISHING
OUTFLOW AND COOLING SSTS WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN,
LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z,
262100Z AND 270300Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-01-25 20:41

WTXS51 PGTW 252100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 190125201751
2019012518 11S RILEY 009 01 270 06 SATL 060
T000 170S 1172E 070 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 070 SE QD
090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 177S 1158E 075 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 090 SE QD
120 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 181S 1139E 070 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 090 SE QD
100 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 183S 1118E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD
090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 185S 1096E 060 R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
110 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 191S 1054E 045 R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 198S 1011E 040 R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 198S 0984E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 17.0S 117.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

>

2019-01-25 20:41

WTXS31 PGTW 252100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 17.0S 117.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 117.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 17.7S 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-01-25 20:32

WTXS51 PGTW 252100
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 190125201751
2019012518 11S RILEY 009 01 270 06 SATL 060
T000 170S 1172E 070 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 070 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 177S 1158E 075 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 090 SE QD 120 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 181S 1139E 070 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 183S 1118E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 185S 1096E 060 R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 191S 1054E 045 R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 198S 1011E 040 R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 198S 0984E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 17.0S 117.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 117.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 17.7S 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 18.1S 113.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 18.3S 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 18.5S 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 19.1S 105.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 19.8S 101.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 19.8S 98.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 116.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 363 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND 262100Z.
//
1119012212 121S1261E 20
1119012218 127S1252E 20
1119012300 138S1243E 25
1119012306 147S1237E 30
1119012312 156S1229E 30
1119012318 165S1217E 35
1119012400 167S1208E 40
1119012406 166S1201E 40
1119012412 166S1197E 40
1119012418 167S1193E 45
1119012500 168S1188E 55
1119012500 168S1188E 55
1119012506 169S1182E 60
1119012506 169S1182E 60
1119012512 170S1178E 65
1119012512 170S1178E 65
1119012512 170S1178E 65
1119012518 170S1172E 70
1119012518 170S1172E 70
1119012518 170S1172E 70
NNNN

>

2019-01-25 20:31

WTXS31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 17.0S 117.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 117.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 17.7S 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 18.1S 113.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 18.3S 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 18.5S 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 19.1S 105.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 19.8S 101.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 19.8S 98.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 116.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 363 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE FLARING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
(CDO) COVERING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON AN 251725Z AMSR-2 37GHZ
IMAGE SHOWING A FORMATIVE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 70 KTS IS BASED ON THE FLARING CDO AND FALLS BETWEEN
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KTS) FROM PGTW AND
T4.0 (65 KTS) FROM KNES, WHILE A 251658Z SATCON ESTIMATE IS 62 KTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING IN AN AREA
OF HIGH (GREATER THAN 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS,
FOR NOW, OFFSET BY STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-
30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) THAT HAVE ALLOWED FOR
INTENSIFICATION IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. TC 11S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
SLIGHT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO 75 KTS UNTIL TAU 12. AFTERWARD,
INCREASING VWS, DIMINISHING OUTFLO W AND COOLING SSTS WILL CAUSE THE
CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 24
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND 262100Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-01-25 14:47

WTXS51 PGTW 251500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 190125123708
2019012512 11S RILEY 008 01 260 07 SATL 025
T000 170S 1175E 065 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 115 SE QD
115 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 176S 1162E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 080 SE QD
140 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 179S 1146E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD
110 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 182S 1126E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD
100 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 185S 1105E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
100 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 191S 1068E 045 R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 195S 1026E 035 R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 194S 0992E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 17.0S 117.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

>

2019-01-25 14:47

WTXS31 PGTW 251500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 17.0S 117.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 117.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 17.6S 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-01-25 14:29

WTXS51 PGTW 251500
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 190125123708
2019012512 11S RILEY 008 01 260 07 SATL 025
T000 170S 1175E 065 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 115 SE QD 115 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 176S 1162E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 080 SE QD 140 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 179S 1146E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 182S 1126E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 185S 1105E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 191S 1068E 045 R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 195S 1026E 035 R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 194S 0992E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 17.0S 117.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 117.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 17.6S 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 17.9S 114.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 18.2S 112.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 18.5S 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 19.1S 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 19.5S 102.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 19.4S 99.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 117.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 371 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z.
//
1119012212 121S1261E 20
1119012218 127S1252E 20
1119012300 138S1243E 25
1119012306 147S1237E 30
1119012312 156S1229E 30
1119012318 165S1217E 35
1119012400 167S1208E 40
1119012406 166S1201E 40
1119012412 166S1197E 40
1119012418 167S1193E 45
1119012500 168S1188E 55
1119012500 168S1188E 55
1119012506 169S1182E 60
1119012506 169S1182E 60
1119012512 170S1175E 65
1119012512 170S1175E 65
1119012512 170S1175E 65
NNNN

>

2019-01-25 14:28

WTXS31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 17.0S 117.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 117.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 17.6S 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 17.9S 114.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 18.2S 112.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 18.5S 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 19.1S 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 19.5S 102.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 19.4S 99.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 117.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (RILEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 371 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE COMPACT AND RAIN
BANDS HAVE CONSOLIDATED AND WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) THAT REMAINED OBSCURED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON A DEFINED LLC FEATURE IN THE
251048Z 37GHZ CORIOLIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0/65KTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND
APRF. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING IN AN
AREA OF HIGH (GREATER THAN 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT
IS, FOR NOW, OFFSET BY STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST). TC 11S WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS A
SMALL WINDOW FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO 70 KNOTS UP TO TAU 12.
AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS, DIMINISHING OUTFLOW AND COOLING SST WILL
CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU
120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 25
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z, AND 261500Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-01-25 08:23

WTXS51 PGTW 250900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 190125072954
2019012506 11S RILEY 007 01 260 06 SATL 030
T000 169S 1182E 060 R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
095 NE QD 100 SE QD 120 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 174S 1172E 065 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD
130 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 179S 1157E 065 R064 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 090 SE QD
120 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 182S 1140E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
100 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 185S 1119E 055 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
090 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 190S 1078E 045 R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 196S 1040E 035 R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 197S 1010E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 16.9S 118.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2019-01-25 08:23

WTXS31 PGTW 250900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 16.9S 118.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 118.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 17.4S 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-01-25 08:18

WTXS51 PGTW 250900
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 190125072954
2019012506 11S RILEY 007 01 260 06 SATL 030
T000 169S 1182E 060 R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 100 SE QD 120 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 174S 1172E 065 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 179S 1157E 065 R064 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 090 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 182S 1140E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 185S 1119E 055 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 190S 1078E 045 R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 196S 1040E 035 R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 197S 1010E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 16.9S 118.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 118.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 17.4S 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 17.9S 115.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 18.2S 114.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 18.5S 111.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 19.0S 107.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.6S 104.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 19.7S 101.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 117.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (RILEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 398 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 251500Z, 252100Z, 260300Z AND 260900Z.
//
1119012212 121S1261E 20
1119012218 127S1252E 20
1119012300 138S1243E 25
1119012306 147S1237E 30
1119012312 156S1229E 30
1119012318 165S1217E 35
1119012400 167S1208E 40
1119012406 166S1201E 40
1119012412 166S1197E 40
1119012418 167S1193E 45
1119012500 168S1188E 55
1119012500 168S1188E 55
1119012506 169S1182E 60
1119012506 169S1182E 60
NNNN

>

2019-01-25 08:17

WTXS31 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 16.9S 118.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 118.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 17.4S 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 17.9S 115.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 18.2S 114.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 18.5S 111.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 19.0S 107.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.6S 104.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 19.7S 101.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 117.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (RILEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 398 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION CONTINUED TO DEEPEN AND ENLARGE AS SHORT
AND FRAGMENTED RAIN BANDS WRAPPED IN FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST INTO
AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE USING BEST TRACK STORM MOTION AND FIT
INTO A BROAD AND LOW RESOLUTION LLC FEATURE IN THE 250550Z ATMS
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
T3.5/55KTS TO T4.0/65KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM
HAS DRIFTED INTO INCREASING (25 KNOTS UP) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
THAT IS, FOR NOW, OFFSET BY STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST). TC 11S WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS A
SMALL WINDOW FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO 65 KNOTS UP TO TAU 12.
AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS, DIMINISHING OUTFLOW AND COOLING SST WILL
CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU
120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 22
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z, 252100Z, 260300Z AND 260900Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-01-25 03:18

WTXS51 PGTW 250300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 190125023603
2019012500 11S RILEY 006 01 270 06 SATL SYNP 025
T000 168S 1188E 055 R050 045 NE QD 020 SE QD 025 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
125 NE QD 075 SE QD 100 SW QD 135 NW QD
T012 171S 1178E 060 R050 035 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R034
115 NE QD 085 SE QD 115 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 175S 1167E 060 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
110 NE QD 100 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 180S 1152E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
100 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 183S 1132E 065 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD
100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 188S 1087E 060 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
090 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 195S 1049E 050 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 200S 1019E 045 R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 16.8S 118.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

>

2019-01-25 03:18

WTXS31 PGTW 250300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 16.8S 118.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 118.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 17.1S 117.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-01-25 02:40

WTXS51 PGTW 250300
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 190125023603
2019012500 11S RILEY 006 01 270 06 SATL SYNP 025
T000 168S 1188E 055 R050 045 NE QD 020 SE QD 025 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 075 SE QD 100 SW QD 135 NW QD
T012 171S 1178E 060 R050 035 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 085 SE QD 115 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 175S 1167E 060 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 180S 1152E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 183S 1132E 065 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 188S 1087E 060 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 195S 1049E 050 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 200S 1019E 045 R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 16.8S 118.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 118.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 17.1S 117.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 17.5S 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 18.0S 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 18.3S 113.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 18.8S 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 19.5S 104.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 20.0S 101.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 118.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 424 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z.
//
1119012212 121S1261E 20
1119012218 127S1252E 20
1119012300 138S1243E 25
1119012306 147S1237E 30
1119012312 156S1229E 30
1119012318 165S1217E 35
1119012400 167S1208E 40
1119012406 166S1201E 40
1119012412 166S1197E 40
1119012418 168S1194E 45
1119012500 168S1188E 55
1119012500 168S1188E 55
NNNN

>

2019-01-25 02:39

WTXS31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 16.9S 118.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 118.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 17.1S 117.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 17.5S 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 18.0S 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 18.3S 113.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 18.8S 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 19.5S 104.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 20.0S 101.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 118.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (RILEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 198 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A DEEP CONVECTIVE RAIN BAND WRAPPING INTO THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FROM THE WEST, SHALLOWER BANDS
WRAPPING IN FROM THE EAST, AND A LLCC THAT IS OBSCURED BY DEEP
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE
USING A COMBINATION OF SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM ROWLEY SHOALS
(ABOUT 37 NM SOUTH OF THE INITIAL POSITION), THE MSI IMAGERY, AND A
242216Z WINDSAT 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH DEPICTS A NOTCH FEATURE
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS,
ROWLEY SHOALS REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30-40 KTS FROM THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST TO EAST AND GUSTS UP TO 51 KTS. ADDITIONALLY, THE MINIMUM
SURFACE PRESSURE WAS REPORTED AT 991 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE OVERALL
WITH A POCKET OF LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST). FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC
11S WILL TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
INCREASING VWS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION
SOMEWHAT, AND THE PEAK IS EXPECTED TO REACH 65 KTS BY TAU 48. AFTER
TAU 48, DIMINISHED OUTFLOW AND COOLING SST WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. THE ONLY NOTABLE DEVIATION IS TWO MEMBERS
OF THE CONSENSUS (GALWEM AND UKMET) MAKE A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN
THE TRACK AFTER TAU 96. BASED ON THE TIGHT CLUSTER OF MODEL DATA,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH CLOSELY
FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z
IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-01-24 20:40

WTXS51 PGTW 242100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 190124194832
2019012418 11S RILEY 005 01 270 05 SATL SYNP 040
T000 172S 1187E 045 R034 085 NE QD 085 SE QD 105 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 174S 1177E 050 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
110 NE QD 085 SE QD 110 SW QD 095 NW QD
T024 177S 1166E 055 R050 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
130 NE QD 090 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 180S 1153E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
100 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 183S 1138E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD
080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 188S 1096E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 195S 1058E 055 R050 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
050 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T120 202S 1026E 045 R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 17.2S 118.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

2019-01-24 20:40

WTXS31 PGTW 242100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 17.2S 118.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 118.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 17.4S 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 17.7S 116.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

>

2019-01-24 20:32

WTXS51 PGTW 242100
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 190124194832
2019012418 11S RILEY 005 01 270 05 SATL SYNP 040
T000 172S 1187E 045 R034 085 NE QD 085 SE QD 105 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 174S 1177E 050 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 085 SE QD 110 SW QD 095 NW QD
T024 177S 1166E 055 R050 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 090 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 180S 1153E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 183S 1138E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 188S 1096E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 195S 1058E 055 R050 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T120 202S 1026E 045 R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 17.2S 118.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 118.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 17.4S 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 17.7S 116.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 18.0S 115.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 18.3S 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 18.8S 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 19.5S 105.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 20.2S 102.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 118.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (RILEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 401 NM NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z.//
1119012212 121S1261E 20
1119012218 127S1252E 20
1119012300 138S1243E 25
1119012306 147S1237E 30
1119012312 156S1229E 30
1119012318 165S1217E 35
1119012400 170S1208E 40
1119012406 170S1201E 40
1119012412 172S1192E 40
1119012418 172S1187E 45
NNNN

>

2019-01-24 20:31

WTXS31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 17.2S 118.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 118.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 17.4S 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 17.7S 116.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 18.0S 115.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 18.3S 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 18.8S 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 19.5S 105.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 20.2S 102.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 118.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (RILEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 401 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE OBSCURED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE USING AN 241715Z ATMS 88 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
BY FOLLOWING DEEP BANDING FROM THE WEST AND SHALLOWER BANDING FROM
THE EAST. OBSERVATIONS FROM ROWLEY SHOALS (ABOUT 25 NM SOUTHEAST OF
THE INITIAL POSITION) HAVE REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 28-34 KTS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST OR EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 44 KTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK FIX INTENSITIES OF T3.0 (45
KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT FAVORS INTENSIFICATION WITH MODERATE (10-20
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM
(29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. TC 11S WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. AFTER REACHING
A PEAK OF 65 KTS AT TAU 48, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AND TC 11S IS EXPECTED TO START
WEAKENING SLOWLY. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING TO
FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, CONSISTENT WITH THERE
BEING FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z,
250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-01-24 14:14

WTXS51 PGTW 241500
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 190124131447
2019012412 11S RILEY 004 01 265 10 SATL 020
T000 172S 1191E 040 R034 090 NE QD 075 SE QD 095 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 173S 1181E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 175S 1172E 060 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 178S 1161E 065 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 120 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 181S 1147E 070 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 120 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 185S 1109E 075 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 194S 1065E 065 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 200S 1036E 055 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 17.2S 119.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 119.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 17.3S 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 17.5S 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 17.8S 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 18.1S 114.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 18.5S 110.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 19.4S 106.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 20.0S 103.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 118.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 416 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.
//
1119012212 121S1261E 20
1119012218 127S1252E 20
1119012300 138S1243E 25
1119012306 147S1237E 30
1119012312 156S1229E 30
1119012318 165S1217E 35
1119012400 170S1208E 40
1119012406 171S1201E 40
1119012412 172S1191E 40
NNNN

>

2019-01-24 14:11

WTXS31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 17.2S 119.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 119.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 17.3S 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 17.5S 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 17.8S 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 18.1S 114.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 18.5S 110.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 19.4S 106.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 20.0S 103.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 118.8E.
TROPICAL (TC) CYCLONE 11S (RILEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 416 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS DEEP BUT FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDS FEEDING FROM THE EAST
AND SOUTH WRAPPING INTO A SMALL CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT IS OBSCURING
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON A SEMI-CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE COMPOSITE
RADAR LOOP FROM BROOME AND LINED UP WITH A WEAK BUT DISCERNIBLE LLC
IN THE 241032Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.0 AND SUPPORTED BY SURFACE WIND
OBSERVATIONS FROM ROWLEY SHOALS, 18NM TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 11S WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE (SST) WILL PROMOTE SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 75
KNOTS BY TAU 72. AFTERWARD, DIMINISHING OUTFLOW, INCREASING VWS, AND
COOLING SST WILL CAUSE A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. NUMERICAL MODEL
TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH SOME DIFFERENCE IN
TRACK SPEED. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-01-24 08:20

WTXS51 PGTW 240900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 190124064936
2019012406 11S RILEY 003 01 260 07 SATL 025
T000 171S 1201E 040 R034 060 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 172S 1189E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
075 NE QD 070 SE QD 090 SW QD 075 NW QD
T024 173S 1181E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
100 NE QD 100 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 175S 1172E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD
150 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 178S 1160E 070 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 110 SE QD
140 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 182S 1129E 075 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD
120 SW QD 150 NW QD
T096 187S 1091E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD
120 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 195S 1067E 065 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 150 SE QD
120 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 17.1S 120.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

>

2019-01-24 08:20

WTXS31 PGTW 240900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 17.1S 120.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 120.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 17.2S 118.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 17.3S 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

2019-01-24 08:11

WTXS51 PGTW 240900
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 190124064936
2019012406 11S RILEY 003 01 260 07 SATL 025
T000 171S 1201E 040 R034 060 NE QD 105 SE QD 085 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 172S 1189E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 070 SE QD 090 SW QD 075 NW QD
T024 173S 1181E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 175S 1172E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 150 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 178S 1160E 070 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 110 SE QD 140 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 182S 1129E 075 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 150 NW QD
T096 187S 1091E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 195S 1067E 065 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 17.1S 120.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 120.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 17.2S 118.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 17.3S 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 17.5S 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 17.8S 116.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 18.2S 112.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 18.7S 109.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.5S 106.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 119.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 461 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z.
//
1119012212 121S1261E 20
1119012218 127S1252E 20
1119012300 138S1243E 25
1119012306 147S1237E 30
1119012312 156S1229E 30
1119012318 165S1217E 35
1119012400 170S1208E 40
1119012406 171S1201E 40
NNNN

>

2019-01-24 08:09

WTXS31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 17.1S 120.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 120.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 17.2S 118.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 17.3S 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 17.5S 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 17.8S 116.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 18.2S 112.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 18.7S 109.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.5S 106.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 119.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (RILEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 461 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS DEEP FORMATIVE BANDS FEEDING FROM THE EAST AND SOUTH
WRAPPING INTO A SMALL CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT IS OBSCURING THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BY EXTRAPOLATING THE FEEDER BANDS AND LINING UP WITH A
HOOK FEATURE IN THE 240519Z ATMS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
POSITION ALSO FITS IN A CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP FROM BROOME. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
T2.5 TO T3.2. TC 11S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT
TO MODERATE (10-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW, AND WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) WILL
PROMOTE STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 75 KNOTS AT TAUS 72-96.
AFTERWARD, THE DIMINISHING OUTFLOW, INCREASING VWS, AND COOLING SST
WILL TRIGGER A WEAKENING TREND. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-01-24 02:29

WTXS51 PGTW 240300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 190124012512
2019012400 11S RILEY 002 01 240 10 SATL RADR SYNP 030
T000 170S 1208E 040 R034 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 173S 1192E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
075 NE QD 070 SE QD 090 SW QD 075 NW QD
T024 176S 1180E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
100 NE QD 100 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 178S 1171E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD
150 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 179S 1160E 070 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 110 SE QD
140 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 183S 1133E 075 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD
120 SW QD 150 NW QD
T096 186S 1099E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD
120 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 190S 1069E 080 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 150 SE QD
120 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 17.0S 120.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF

>

2019-01-24 02:29

WTXS31 PGTW 240300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 17.0S 120.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 120.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 17.3S 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 17.6S 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

>

2019-01-24 02:18

WTXS51 PGTW 240300
WARNING ATCG MIL 11S SIO 190124012512
2019012400 11S RILEY 002 01 240 10 SATL RADR SYNP 030
T000 170S 1208E 040 R034 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 173S 1192E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 070 SE QD 090 SW QD 075 NW QD
T024 176S 1180E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 178S 1171E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 150 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 179S 1160E 070 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 110 SE QD 140 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 183S 1133E 075 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 150 NW QD
T096 186S 1099E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 190S 1069E 080 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 17.0S 120.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 120.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 17.3S 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 17.6S 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 17.8S 117.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 17.9S 116.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 18.3S 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 18.6S 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 19.0S 106.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 120.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (RILEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 494 NM NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.//
1119012212 121S1261E 20
1119012218 127S1252E 20
1119012300 138S1243E 25
1119012306 147S1237E 30
1119012312 156S1229E 30
1119012318 165S1217E 35
1119012400 170S1208E 40
NNNN

>

2019-01-24 02:16

WTXS31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (RILEY) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 17.0S 120.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 120.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 17.3S 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 17.6S 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 17.8S 117.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 17.9S 116.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 18.3S 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 18.6S 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 19.0S 106.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 120.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (RILEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 494 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS FROM THE NORTH
AND SOUTH WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE USING A
COMBINATION OF THE RAIN BANDS IN THE MSI, A DEVELOPING EYE FEATURE
IN A 232158Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, RADAR IMAGERY FROM
BROOME, AUSTRALIA, AND SYNOPTIC DATA FROM REPORTING STATIONS IN
NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35
KTS) DUE TO A 232037Z CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 50 KTS. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-20 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, AND WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST). FOR
THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 11S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD
TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A PERSISTENT
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THROUGH TAU 48, THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL
REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECASTED TO INTENSIFY TO
70 KTS. AFTER TAU 48, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MARGINAL OVERALL
DUE TO DIMINISHING OUTFLOW, INCREASING VWS, AND COOLING SST. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION TO SLOW DOWN. THE JTWC
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS BUT AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE HAS TAU 120 INTENSITY VALUES BETWEEN ABOUT 40 AND 115 KTS
SO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE 80 KT INTENSITY AT TAU 120 IS HIGH. DYNAMIC
MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE HAS EXCELLENT CROSS-TRACK AGREEMENT BUT ONLY
FAIR ALONG-TRACK AGREEMENT. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR
THE CONSENSUS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ALONG-TRACK
UNCERTAINTY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.//
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