Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for SAVANNAH-19
Off-shore

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2019-03-19 20:44

WTXS51 PGTW 192100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 190319194518
2019031918 19S SAVANNAH 024 02 240 06 SATL 030
T000 186S 0846E 040 R034 065 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 192S 0834E 040 R034 090 NE QD 125 SE QD 070 SW QD 045 NW QD
T024 194S 0823E 035 R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 195S 0812E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 024
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 18.6S 84.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S 84.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 19.2S 83.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-03-19 20:44

WTXS31 PGTW 192100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 18.6S 84.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S 84.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 19.2S 83.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 19.4S 82.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-03-19 20:40

WTXS51 PGTW 192100
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 190319194518
2019031918 19S SAVANNAH 024 02 240 06 SATL 030
T000 186S 0846E 040 R034 065 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 192S 0834E 040 R034 090 NE QD 125 SE QD 070 SW QD 045 NW QD
T024 194S 0823E 035 R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 195S 0812E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 024
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 18.6S 84.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S 84.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 19.2S 83.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 19.4S 82.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 19.5S 81.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 84.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 987 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1919031018 113S1077E 25
1919031100 109S1066E 25
1919031106 106S1053E 20
1919031112 104S1041E 20
1919031118 100S1025E 20
1919031200 100S1017E 20
1919031206 91S1002E 20
1919031212 89S 991E 20
1919031218 84S 977E 20
1919031300 87S 977E 20
1919031306 97S 975E 20
1919031312 104S 968E 25
1919031318 110S 966E 30
1919031400 115S 963E 35
1919031406 121S 960E 40
1919031412 126S 958E 40
1919031418 131S 954E 45
1919031500 135S 951E 45
1919031506 139S 949E 50
1919031506 139S 949E 50
1919031512 144S 948E 55
1919031512 144S 948E 55
1919031518 147S 943E 60
1919031518 147S 943E 60
1919031600 148S 938E 60
1919031600 148S 938E 60
1919031606 151S 934E 65
1919031606 151S 934E 65
1919031606 151S 934E 65
1919031612 153S 930E 75
1919031612 153S 930E 75
1919031612 153S 930E 75
1919031618 156S 923E 85
1919031618 156S 923E 85
1919031618 156S 923E 85
1919031700 160S 916E 95
1919031700 160S 916E 95
1919031700 160S 916E 95
1919031706 161S 911E 100
1919031706 161S 911E 100
1919031706 161S 911E 100
1919031712 163S 907E 100
1919031712 163S 907E 100
1919031712 163S 907E 100
1919031718 165S 901E 95
1919031718 165S 901E 95
1919031718 165S 901E 95
1919031800 168S 895E 85
1919031800 168S 895E 85
1919031800 168S 895E 85
1919031806 173S 890E 75
1919031806 173S 890E 75
1919031806 173S 890E 75
1919031812 177S 882E 60
1919031812 177S 882E 60
1919031818 179S 874E 45
1919031900 181S 866E 45
1919031906 182S 857E 40
1919031912 183S 851E 40
1919031918 186S 846E 40
NNNN

>

2019-03-19 20:40

WTXS31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 18.6S 84.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S 84.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 19.2S 83.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 19.4S 82.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 19.5S 81.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 84.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 987 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS SITUATED
WITHIN THE CENTER OF A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
EVIDENT IN RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY OF 40
KNOTS IS SUPPORTED BY A 191447Z OSCAT PASS INDICATING 35-40 KNOT
WINDS SITUATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM
HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AND SLIGHTLY POLEWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS
FOLLOWING THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGING
TO THE SOUTH. A FLARE OF DEEP CONVECTION, FUELED BY STRONG OUTFLOW
ALOFT, HAS PERSISTED ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. HOWEVER, STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) HAS PREVENTED CONVECTION FROM BUILDING OVER THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, TC 19S WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD AND WEAKEN IN THE PRESENCE OF
ONGOING VWS UNTIL DISSIPATION AROUND TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, AND CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK
FORECAST IS HIGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 16
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-03-19 14:47

WTXS51 PGTW 191500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 190319135055
2019031912 19S SAVANNAH 023 01 260 06 SATL 030
T000 183S 0851E 040 R034 065 NE QD 105 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 187S 0838E 040 R034 060 NE QD 115 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 190S 0826E 035 R034 060 NE QD 135 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 193S 0815E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 023
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 18.3S 85.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 85.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 18.7S 83.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-03-19 14:47

WTXS31 PGTW 191500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 18.3S 85.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 85.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 18.7S 83.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 19.0S 82.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-03-19 14:21

WTXS51 PGTW 191500
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 190319135055
2019031912 19S SAVANNAH 023 01 260 06 SATL 030
T000 183S 0851E 040 R034 065 NE QD 105 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 187S 0838E 040 R034 060 NE QD 115 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 190S 0826E 035 R034 060 NE QD 135 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 193S 0815E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 023
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 18.3S 85.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 85.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 18.7S 83.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 19.0S 82.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.3S 81.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 84.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (TC) (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 997 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.//
1919031018 113S1077E 25
1919031100 109S1066E 25
1919031106 106S1053E 20
1919031112 104S1041E 20
1919031118 100S1025E 20
1919031200 100S1017E 20
1919031206 91S1002E 20
1919031212 89S 991E 20
1919031218 84S 977E 20
1919031300 87S 977E 20
1919031306 97S 975E 20
1919031312 104S 968E 25
1919031318 110S 966E 30
1919031400 115S 963E 35
1919031406 121S 960E 40
1919031412 126S 958E 40
1919031418 131S 954E 45
1919031500 135S 951E 45
1919031506 139S 949E 50
1919031506 139S 949E 50
1919031512 144S 948E 55
1919031512 144S 948E 55
1919031518 147S 943E 60
1919031518 147S 943E 60
1919031600 148S 938E 60
1919031600 148S 938E 60
1919031606 151S 934E 65
1919031606 151S 934E 65
1919031606 151S 934E 65
1919031612 153S 930E 75
1919031612 153S 930E 75
1919031612 153S 930E 75
1919031618 156S 923E 85
1919031618 156S 923E 85
1919031618 156S 923E 85
1919031700 160S 916E 95
1919031700 160S 916E 95
1919031700 160S 916E 95
1919031706 161S 911E 100
1919031706 161S 911E 100
1919031706 161S 911E 100
1919031712 163S 907E 100
1919031712 163S 907E 100
1919031712 163S 907E 100
1919031718 165S 901E 95
1919031718 165S 901E 95
1919031718 165S 901E 95
1919031800 168S 895E 85
1919031800 168S 895E 85
1919031800 168S 895E 85
1919031806 173S 890E 75
1919031806 173S 890E 75
1919031806 173S 890E 75
1919031812 177S 882E 60
1919031812 177S 882E 60
1919031818 179S 874E 45
1919031900 181S 866E 45
1919031906 182S 857E 40
1919031912 183S 851E 40
NNNN

>

2019-03-19 14:20

WTXS31 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 18.3S 85.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 85.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 18.7S 83.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 19.0S 82.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.3S 81.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 84.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (TC) (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 997 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS BUILDING CONVECTION LOCATED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 191236Z 37 GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWING A WELL DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS
HEDGED ABOVE A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW BASED ON THE TIGHTLY WRAPPED LLCC AND BUILDING CONVECTION.
TC 19S IS EXPERIENCING NEUTRAL TO UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20
TO 25 KNOTS) AND HAS WEAK EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS.
HOWEVER, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, NEAR 27 DEGREES
CELSIUS. TC 19S WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER, WEAK UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW TC 19S TO STEADILY DECREASE IN INTENSITY.
OVERALL UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE TC 19S TO
DISSIPATE BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
INDICATING A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z,
200900Z AND 201500Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-03-19 12:41

WTIO31 FMEE 191236 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/12/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 12 (SAVANNAH)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 19/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.4 S / 85.2 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT CINQ DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1002 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 190 SO: 190 NO: 90
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 130 SO: 90 NO:


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PEU PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 20/03/2019 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 83.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
24H: 20/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
36H: 21/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 81.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
48H: 21/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
60H: 22/03/2019 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 77.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION

>

2019-03-19 12:41

WTIO30 FMEE 191236 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/12/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (SAVANNAH)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/19 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 85.2 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 90
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 130 SW: 90 NW:


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/20 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 83.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
24H: 2019/03/20 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
36H: 2019/03/21 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 81.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
48H: 2019/03/21 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
60H: 2019/03/22 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 77.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

>

2019-03-19 12:38

WTIO31 FMEE 191236
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/12/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 12 (SAVANNAH)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 19/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.4 S / 85.2 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT CINQ DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1002 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 190 SO: 190 NO: 90
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 130 SO: 90 NO:


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PEU PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 20/03/2019 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 83.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
24H: 20/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
36H: 21/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 81.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
48H: 21/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
60H: 22/03/2019 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 77.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
LA STRUCTURE NUAGEUSE DE SAVANNAH N'A PAS EVOLUE AUJOURD'HUI AVEC
TOUJOURS UNE ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE ABSENTE DU COEUR DU PHENOMENE.
CEPENDANT UN BURST DE CONVECTION A EU LIEU DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST
PEU AVANT 12Z. AU VU DE CETTE STRUCTURE TOUJOURS CISAILLEE,
L'INTENSITE A ETE ABAISEE A 35KT.

AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE SAVANNAH, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR REDESCEND
RAPIDEMENT DANS LES BAS NIVEAUX OU LE RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE AU SUD LAISSE LE SYSTEME SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE GLOBALEMENT
ORIENTEE A L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST SUR TOUTE LA PERIODE DE PREVISION. IL Y
A PEU DE DISPERSION DES MODELES.

AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS, LA CONTRAINTE DE OUEST-SUD-OUEST NE
FAIBLIT PAS, EMPECHANT TOUT RETOUR DURABLE DE L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE.
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT EN COURS DEVRAIT AINSI SE POURSUIVRE AU COURS DES
PROCHAINS JOURS ET LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT DEVENIR UN MINIMUM RESIDUEL
D'ICI JEUDI.

CECI EST LE DERNIER BULLETIN CONCERNANT CE SYSTEME.=

>

2019-03-19 12:38

WTIO30 FMEE 191236
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/12/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (SAVANNAH)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/19 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 85.2 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 90
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 130 SW: 90 NW:


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/20 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 83.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
24H: 2019/03/20 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
36H: 2019/03/21 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 81.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
48H: 2019/03/21 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
60H: 2019/03/22 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 77.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
SAVANNAH CLOUD PATTERN DID NOT EVOLVE TODAY WITH NO CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ON THE TC CORE. A CONVECTIVE BURST JUST OCCURRED BEFORE 12Z
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. GIVEN THIS SHEARED PATTERN, INTENSITY
WAS DECREASED TO 35KT.

WITH THE WEAKENING OF SAVANNAH, THE STEERING FLOW IS RAPIDLY COMING
DOWN IN THE LOW-LEVELS WHERE THE STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN
THE SOUTH SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER A GENERALLY WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS
TRACK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MODEL DISPERSION IS LOW.

OVER THE NEXT DAYS, THIS WEST SOUTH WESTERLY CONSTRAINT DOES NOT
WEAKEN, PREVENTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM A SIGNIFICANT COMING
BACK. THE CURRENT WEAKENING IS THUS EXPECTED TO GO ON OVER THE NEXT
DAYS AND SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY THURSDAY.

THIS IS THE LAST WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.=

>

2019-03-19 12:26

WTIO20 FMEE 191227 CCA
****************CORRECTIVE*******************
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/03/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 19/03/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (SAVANNAH) 1002 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 85.2 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER UP TO 200 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 50
NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 70 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/20 AT 00 UTC:
18.9 S / 83.7 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, REMNANT LOW
24H, VALID 2019/03/20 AT 12 UTC:
19.3 S / 82.4 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, REMNANT LOW

OTHER INFORMATION:
LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.=

>

2019-03-19 12:22

WTIO20 FMEE 191225
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/03/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 19/03/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (SAVANNAH) 1002 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 85.2 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER UP TO 200 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 50
NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 70 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/20 AT 00 UTC:
18.9 S / 83.7 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, REMNANT LOW
24H, VALID 2019/03/20 AT 12 UTC:
19.3 S / 82.4 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, REMNANT LOW

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2019-03-19 09:02

WTXS31 PGTW 190900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 18.2S 85.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 85.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 18.5S 84.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 18.9S 82.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-03-19 08:58

WTXS51 PGTW 190900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 190319072359
2019031906 19S SAVANNAH 022 01 265 09 SATL 025
T000 182S 0857E 040 R034 065 NE QD 105 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 185S 0841E 040 R034 080 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 189S 0828E 040 R034 080 NE QD 120 SE QD 070 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 192S 0815E 035 R034 070 NE QD 130 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD
T048 195S 0802E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 022
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 18.2S 85.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 85.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 18.5S 84.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-03-19 08:54

WTXS31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 18.2S 85.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 85.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 18.5S 84.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 18.9S 82.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 19.2S 81.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 19.5S 80.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 85.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1019 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ALMOST NO
REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 190600Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE
WHICH SHOWS THE EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS
HEDGED ABOVE A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW BASED ON THE TIGHTLY WRAPPED LLCC. TC 19S IS EXPERIENCING
FAVORABLE TO NEUTRAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS). HOWEVER,
TC 19S HAS WEAK EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, NEAR 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC
19S WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER, WEAK UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WILL ALLOW TC 19S TO STEADILY WEAKEN IN INTENSITY. OVERALL
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE TC 19S TO DISSIPATE
BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, INDICATING A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 16
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-03-19 08:53

WTXS51 PGTW 190900
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 190319072359
2019031906 19S SAVANNAH 022 01 265 09 SATL 025
T000 182S 0857E 040 R034 065 NE QD 105 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 185S 0841E 040 R034 080 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 189S 0828E 040 R034 080 NE QD 120 SE QD 070 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 192S 0815E 035 R034 070 NE QD 130 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD
T048 195S 0802E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 022
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 18.2S 85.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 85.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 18.5S 84.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 18.9S 82.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 19.2S 81.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 19.5S 80.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 85.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1019 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z.//
1919031018 113S1077E 25
1919031100 109S1066E 25
1919031106 106S1053E 20
1919031112 104S1041E 20
1919031118 100S1025E 20
1919031200 100S1017E 20
1919031206 91S1002E 20
1919031212 89S 991E 20
1919031218 84S 977E 20
1919031300 87S 977E 20
1919031306 97S 975E 20
1919031312 104S 968E 25
1919031318 110S 966E 30
1919031400 115S 963E 35
1919031406 121S 960E 40
1919031412 126S 958E 40
1919031418 131S 954E 45
1919031500 135S 951E 45
1919031506 139S 949E 50
1919031506 139S 949E 50
1919031512 144S 948E 55
1919031512 144S 948E 55
1919031518 147S 943E 60
1919031518 147S 943E 60
1919031600 148S 938E 60
1919031600 148S 938E 60
1919031606 151S 934E 65
1919031606 151S 934E 65
1919031606 151S 934E 65
1919031612 153S 930E 75
1919031612 153S 930E 75
1919031612 153S 930E 75
1919031618 156S 923E 85
1919031618 156S 923E 85
1919031618 156S 923E 85
1919031700 160S 916E 95
1919031700 160S 916E 95
1919031700 160S 916E 95
1919031706 161S 911E 100
1919031706 161S 911E 100
1919031706 161S 911E 100
1919031712 163S 907E 100
1919031712 163S 907E 100
1919031712 163S 907E 100
1919031718 165S 901E 95
1919031718 165S 901E 95
1919031718 165S 901E 95
1919031800 168S 895E 85
1919031800 168S 895E 85
1919031800 168S 895E 85
1919031806 173S 890E 75
1919031806 173S 890E 75
1919031806 173S 890E 75
1919031812 177S 882E 60
1919031812 177S 882E 60
1919031818 179S 874E 45
1919031900 181S 866E 45
1919031906 182S 857E 40
NNNN

>

2019-03-19 07:01

WTIO31 FMEE 190643 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/12/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 12 (SAVANNAH)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 19/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.3 S / 85.7 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT CINQ DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1000 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 190 SO: 190 NO: 90
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO:


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PEU PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 19/03/2019 18 UTC: 18.6 S / 84.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 20/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.1 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
36H: 20/03/2019 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 81.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
48H: 21/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 81.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
60H: 21/03/2019 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 79.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION

>

2019-03-19 07:01

WTIO30 FMEE 190643 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/12/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (SAVANNAH)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/19 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.3 S / 85.7 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 90
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW:


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/19 18 UTC: 18.6 S / 84.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/03/20 06 UTC: 19.1 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
36H: 2019/03/20 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 81.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
48H: 2019/03/21 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 81.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
60H: 2019/03/21 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 79.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

>

2019-03-19 06:58

WTIO31 FMEE 190643
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/12/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 12 (SAVANNAH)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 19/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.3 S / 85.7 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT CINQ DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1000 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 190 SO: 190 NO: 90
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO:


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PEU PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 19/03/2019 18 UTC: 18.6 S / 84.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 20/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.1 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
36H: 20/03/2019 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 81.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
48H: 21/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 81.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
60H: 21/03/2019 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 79.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE EST TOUJOURS
ABSENTE DU COEUR DE SAVANNAH. L'AIR SEC ET LE CISAILLEMENT INHIBE
TOUTE CONVECTION EN DEHORS DU MAXIMUM DE CONVERGENCE DANS LE QUADRANT
SUD-EST. CEPENDANT SUR LES IMAGES VISIBLES, LE VORTEX APPARAIT
TOUJOURS BIEN FORME ET LES DONNEES SCATTEROMETRIQUES MONTRENT QUE LE
COUP DE VENT EST TOUJOURS ATTEINT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST (52KT A
0023Z SMAP ET 40KT A 0350Z ASCAT C). L'INTENSITE EST MAITENUE A 40KT.

AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE SAVANNAH, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR REDESCEND
RAPIDEMENT DANS LES BAS NIVEAUX OU LE RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE AU SUD LAISSE LE SYSTEME SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE GLOBALEMENT
ORIENTEE A L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST SUR TOUTE LA PERIODE DE PREVISION. IL Y
A PEU DE DISPERSION DES MODELES.

AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS, LA CONTRAINTE DE OUEST-SUD-OUEST NE
FAIBLIT PAS, EMPECHANT TOUT RETOUR DURABLE DE L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE.
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT EN COURS DEVRAIT AINSI SE POURSUIVRE AU COURS DES
PROCHAINS JOURS ET LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT DEVENIR UN MINIMUM RESIDUEL
D'ICI JEUDI.=

>

2019-03-19 06:58

WTIO30 FMEE 190643
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/12/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (SAVANNAH)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/19 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.3 S / 85.7 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 90
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW:


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/19 18 UTC: 18.6 S / 84.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/03/20 06 UTC: 19.1 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
36H: 2019/03/20 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 81.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
48H: 2019/03/21 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 81.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
60H: 2019/03/21 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 79.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS STILL ABSENT OVER
SAVANNAH CORE. DRY AIR AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SUPPRESS THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OUTSIDE OF THE MAXIMUM CONVERGENCE AREA IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. HOWEVER ON VISIBLE IMAGERY, THE VORTEX IS
QUITE DEFINED AND SCATTEROMETRIC DATA SUGGEST WINDS SUPERIOR TO 35KT
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE (52KT AT 0023Z SMAP AND 40KT AT
0350Z ASCAT C).

WITH THE WEAKENING OF SAVANNAH, THE STEERING FLOW IS RAPIDLY COMING
DOWN IN THE LOW-LEVELS WHERE THE STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN
THE SOUTH SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER A GENERALLY WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS
TRACK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MODEL DISPERSION IS LOW.

OVER THE NEXT DAYS, THIS WEST SOUTH WESTERLY CONSTRAINT DOES NOT
WEAKEN, PREVENTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM A SIGNIFICANT COMING
BACK. THE CURRENT WEAKENING IS THUS EXPECTED TO GO ON OVER THE NEXT
DAYS AND SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY THURSDAY.=

>

2019-03-19 06:33

WTIO20 FMEE 190634
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/03/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 19/03/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (SAVANNAH) 1000 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.3 S / 85.7 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER UP TO 100 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/19 AT 18 UTC:
18.6 S / 84.1 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/03/20 AT 06 UTC:
19.1 S / 83.0 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, REMNANT LOW

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2019-03-19 02:01

WTXS51 PGTW 190300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 190319001958
2019031900 19S SAVANNAH 021 01 250 09 SATL 030
T000 181S 0866E 045 R034 070 NE QD 105 SE QD 095 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 185S 0850E 045 R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 189S 0835E 040 R034 080 NE QD 120 SE QD 070 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 193S 0820E 035 R034 070 NE QD 130 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD
T048 195S 0808E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 021
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 18.1S 86.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 86.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 18.5S 85.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-03-19 01:56

WTXS51 PGTW 190300
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 190319001958
2019031900 19S SAVANNAH 021 01 250 09 SATL 030
T000 181S 0866E 045 R034 070 NE QD 105 SE QD 095 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 185S 0850E 045 R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 189S 0835E 040 R034 080 NE QD 120 SE QD 070 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 193S 0820E 035 R034 070 NE QD 130 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD
T048 195S 0808E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 021
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 18.1S 86.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 86.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 18.5S 85.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 18.9S 83.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 19.3S 82.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.5S 80.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 86.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1056 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z.//
1919031018 113S1077E 25
1919031100 109S1066E 25
1919031106 106S1053E 20
1919031112 104S1041E 20
1919031118 100S1025E 20
1919031200 100S1017E 20
1919031206 91S1002E 20
1919031212 89S 991E 20
1919031218 84S 977E 20
1919031300 87S 977E 20
1919031306 97S 975E 20
1919031312 104S 968E 25
1919031318 110S 966E 30
1919031400 115S 963E 35
1919031406 121S 960E 40
1919031412 126S 958E 40
1919031418 131S 954E 45
1919031500 135S 951E 45
1919031506 139S 949E 50
1919031506 139S 949E 50
1919031512 144S 948E 55
1919031512 144S 948E 55
1919031518 147S 943E 60
1919031518 147S 943E 60
1919031600 148S 938E 60
1919031600 148S 938E 60
1919031606 151S 934E 65
1919031606 151S 934E 65
1919031606 151S 934E 65
1919031612 153S 930E 75
1919031612 153S 930E 75
1919031612 153S 930E 75
1919031618 156S 923E 85
1919031618 156S 923E 85
1919031618 156S 923E 85
1919031700 160S 916E 95
1919031700 160S 916E 95
1919031700 160S 916E 95
1919031706 161S 911E 100
1919031706 161S 911E 100
1919031706 161S 911E 100
1919031712 163S 907E 100
1919031712 163S 907E 100
1919031712 163S 907E 100
1919031718 165S 901E 95
1919031718 165S 901E 95
1919031718 165S 901E 95
1919031800 168S 895E 85
1919031800 168S 895E 85
1919031800 168S 895E 85
1919031806 173S 890E 75
1919031806 173S 890E 75
1919031806 173S 890E 75
1919031812 177S 882E 60
1919031812 177S 882E 60
1919031818 179S 874E 45
1919031900 181S 866E 45
NNNN

>

2019-03-19 01:39

WTXS31 PGTW 190300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 18.1S 86.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 86.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 18.5S 85.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 18.9S 83.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-03-19 01:33

WTXS31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 18.1S 86.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 86.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 18.5S 85.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 18.9S 83.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 19.3S 82.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.5S 80.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 86.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1056 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED, TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KT)
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE AT
27C. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND SATELLITE-DERIVED
SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, WHICH IS ALSO AIDING IN THE
RAPID WEAKENING TREND. TC 19S WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE
SOUTH. THE OVERALL UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, INCLUDING STRONG (40 TO
50 KNOTS) VWS, WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TC 19S LEADING TO DISSIPATION
BY TAU 48, POSSIBLY SOONER. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS HIGH.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-03-19 00:37

WTIO31 FMEE 190011 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/12/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 12 (SAVANNAH)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 19/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.1 S / 86.7 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES UN SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT SIX DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/3.0/W 2.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1000 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 230 NO: 90
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 90 SO: 140 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 19/03/2019 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 85.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
24H: 20/03/2019 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 83.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
36H: 20/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 82.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 21/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
60H: 21/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 79.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 22/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.0- CI=3.0-

>

2019-03-19 00:37

WTIO30 FMEE 190011 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/12/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (SAVANNAH)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/19 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1 S / 86.7 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/3.0/W 2.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 230 NW: 90
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 90 SW: 140 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/19 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 85.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
24H: 2019/03/20 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 83.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
36H: 2019/03/20 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 82.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2019/03/21 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2019/03/21 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 79.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2019/03/22 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0- CI=3.0-

>

2019-03-19 00:09

WTIO31 FMEE 190011
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/12/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 12 (SAVANNAH)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 19/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.1 S / 86.7 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES UN SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT SIX DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/3.0/W 2.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1000 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 230 NO: 90
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 90 SO: 140 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 19/03/2019 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 85.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
24H: 20/03/2019 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 83.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
36H: 20/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 82.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 21/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
60H: 21/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 79.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 22/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.0- CI=3.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION N'A PAS REPRIS PRES DU
CENTRE. LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE A CONTINUE A SE DETERIORER
RAPIDEMENT AVEC L'ELOIGNEMENT DES DERNIERS NUAGES CONVECTIFS DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE EST. LE VORTEX DE NUAGES DE BASSES COUCHES EST DESORMAIS
TOTALEMENT EXPOSE. L'IMAGE 89GHZ DE LA PASSE SSMI DE 2106Z MONTRE UN
COEUR DE MOYENNE TROPO DEPOURVU DE CONVECTION MAIS ENCORE BIEN
DEFINI.

AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT RAPIDE DE SAVANNAH, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR
REDESCEND RAPIDEMENT DANS LES BAS NIVEAUX OU LE RENFORCEMENT DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD LAISSE LE SYSTEME SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE
GLOBALEMENT ORIENTEE A L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST SUR TOUTE LA PERIODE DE
PREVISION. IL Y A PEU DE DISPERSION DES MODELES.

LE CONTENU ENERGETIQUE DE L'OCEAN RESTE BIEN PRESENT AU NORD DE 23S.
CEPENDANT, L'ENVIRONNEMENT DIRECT DU SYSTEME EST TRES SEC. UN
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT MODERE VENANT DU SUD-OUEST (13KT
ACCORDING TO CIMSS) REUSSIT A AMENER DE L'AIR SEC DANS LE COEUR DU
SYSTEME, CE QUI L'ASPHYXIE. AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS, CETTE
CONTRAINTE NE FAIBLIT PAS ET SE RENFORCE MEME MERCREDI.
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT EN COURS DEVRAIT AINSI SE POURSUIVRE AU COURS DES
PROCHAINS JOURS ET LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT DEVENIR UN MINIMUM RESIDUEL
D'ICI JEUDI.=

>

2019-03-19 00:09

WTIO30 FMEE 190011
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/12/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (SAVANNAH)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/19 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1 S / 86.7 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/3.0/W 2.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 230 NW: 90
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 90 SW: 140 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/19 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 85.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
24H: 2019/03/20 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 83.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
36H: 2019/03/20 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 82.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2019/03/21 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2019/03/21 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 79.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2019/03/22 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0- CI=3.0-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, NEW CONVECTIVE BURSTS DID NOT TRIGGER NEAR THE
CENTER. THE CLOUD PATTERN KEPT ON RAPIDLY DETERIORATING WITH THE LAST
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS BEING SHEARED AWAY IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS VORTEX IS NOW TOTALLY EXPOSED. THE 2106Z 89GHZ SSMI
IMAGE SHOWS A STILL WELL-DEFINED INNER-CORE BUT WITH NO ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION.

WITH THE RAPID WEAKENING OF SAVANNAH, THE STEERING FLOW IS RAPIDLY
COMING DOWN IN THE LOW-LEVELS WHERE THE STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE IN THE SOUTH SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER A GENERALLY
WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MODEL
DISPERSION IS LOW.

THE OCEANIC ENERGY CONTENT REMAINS SUFFICIENT NORTH OF 23S. HOWEVER,
THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING WITHIN A DRY ATMOSPHERIC AREA. A WEAK TO
MODERATE SOUTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (13 KT ACCORDING TO CIMSS)
HAS ADVECTED SOME OF THIS DRY AIR DIRECTLY INTO THE TC CORE. OVER THE
NEXT DAYS, THIS UPPER AND MID-LEVEL CONSTRAINT DOES NOT DISAPPEAR AND
SHOULD EVEN STRENGTHEN FROM WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT WEAKENING IS THUS
EXPECTED TO GO ON OVER THE NEXT DAYS AND SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME A
REMNANT LOW BY THURSDAY.=

>

2019-03-19 00:09

WTIO20 FMEE 190010
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/03/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 19/03/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (SAVANNAH) 1000 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1 S / 86.7 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER BETWEEN 75 NM AND 250 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 125 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/19 AT 12 UTC:
18.4 S / 85.0 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP
24H, VALID 2019/03/20 AT 00 UTC:
18.9 S / 83.3 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2019-03-18 20:27

WTXS51 PGTW 182100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 190318194436
2019031818 19S SAVANNAH 020 01 260 07 SATL 060
T000 178S 0875E 045 R034 075 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 182S 0857E 045 R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 186S 0842E 040 R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 191S 0828E 035 R034 040 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW QD 010 NW QD
T048 193S 0813E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 020
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 17.8S 87.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 87.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 18.2S 85.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-03-18 20:23

WTXS31 PGTW 182100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 17.8S 87.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 87.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 18.2S 85.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 18.6S 84.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-03-18 20:22

WTXS51 PGTW 182100
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 190318194436
2019031818 19S SAVANNAH 020 01 260 07 SATL 060
T000 178S 0875E 045 R034 075 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 182S 0857E 045 R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 186S 0842E 040 R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 191S 0828E 035 R034 040 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW QD 010 NW QD
T048 193S 0813E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 020
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 17.8S 87.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 87.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 18.2S 85.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 18.6S 84.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 19.1S 82.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 19.3S 81.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 87.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1521 NM
WEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.//
1919031018 113S1077E 25
1919031100 109S1066E 25
1919031106 106S1053E 20
1919031112 104S1041E 20
1919031118 100S1025E 20
1919031200 100S1017E 20
1919031206 91S1002E 20
1919031212 89S 991E 20
1919031218 84S 977E 20
1919031300 87S 977E 20
1919031306 97S 975E 20
1919031312 104S 968E 25
1919031318 110S 966E 30
1919031400 115S 963E 35
1919031406 121S 960E 40
1919031412 126S 958E 40
1919031418 131S 954E 45
1919031500 135S 951E 45
1919031506 139S 949E 50
1919031506 139S 949E 50
1919031512 144S 948E 55
1919031512 144S 948E 55
1919031518 147S 943E 60
1919031518 147S 943E 60
1919031600 148S 938E 60
1919031600 148S 938E 60
1919031606 151S 934E 65
1919031606 151S 934E 65
1919031606 151S 934E 65
1919031612 153S 930E 75
1919031612 153S 930E 75
1919031612 153S 930E 75
1919031618 156S 923E 85
1919031618 156S 923E 85
1919031618 156S 923E 85
1919031700 160S 916E 95
1919031700 160S 916E 95
1919031700 160S 916E 95
1919031706 161S 911E 100
1919031706 161S 911E 100
1919031706 161S 911E 100
1919031712 163S 907E 100
1919031712 163S 907E 100
1919031712 163S 907E 100
1919031718 165S 901E 95
1919031718 165S 901E 95
1919031718 165S 901E 95
1919031800 168S 895E 85
1919031800 168S 895E 85
1919031800 168S 895E 85
1919031806 173S 890E 75
1919031806 173S 890E 75
1919031806 173S 890E 75
1919031812 177S 882E 60
1919031812 177S 882E 60
1919031818 178S 875E 45
NNNN

>

2019-03-18 20:17

WTXS31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 17.8S 87.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 87.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 18.2S 85.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 18.6S 84.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 19.1S 82.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 19.3S 81.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 87.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1521 NM
WEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 181538Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A RAPIDLY DECAYING
SYSTEM WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.0 (35 TO 45 KNOTS).
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KT)
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ALONG-
TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE AT 27C.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND SATELLITE-DERIVED SOUNDINGS
INDICATE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, WHICH IS ALSO AIDING IN THE RAPID
WEAKENING TREND. TC 19S WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. THE OVERALL
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TC 19S LEADING TO
DISSIPATION BY TAU 48, POSSIBLY SOONER. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST IS HIGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 19
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-03-18 18:16

WTIO31 FMEE 181814 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/12/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 12 (SAVANNAH)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 18/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.7 S / 87.7 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT SEPT DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SO: 320 NO: 90
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 140 SO: 190 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 19/03/2019 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 86.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 19/03/2019 18 UTC: 18.6 S / 84.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 20/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.2 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 20/03/2019 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
60H: 21/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 21/03/2019 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5 CI=3.5-

>

2019-03-18 18:16

WTIO30 FMEE 181814 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/12/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (SAVANNAH)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/18 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.7 S / 87.7 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SW: 320 NW: 90
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 140 SW: 190 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/19 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 86.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/03/19 18 UTC: 18.6 S / 84.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/03/20 06 UTC: 19.2 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2019/03/20 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2019/03/21 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2019/03/21 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=3.5-

>

2019-03-18 18:14

WTIO31 FMEE 181814
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/12/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 12 (SAVANNAH)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 18/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.7 S / 87.7 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT SEPT DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SO: 320 NO: 90
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 140 SO: 190 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 19/03/2019 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 86.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 19/03/2019 18 UTC: 18.6 S / 84.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 20/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.2 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 20/03/2019 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
60H: 21/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 21/03/2019 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5 CI=3.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE QUI RESTAIT
RELATIVEMENT FORTE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD-EST DE SAVANNAH S'EST
TOTALEMENT EFFONDREE. LE VORTEX DE NUAGES DE BASSES COUCHES APPARAIT
MAINTENANT CLAIREMENT EN BORDURE SUD-OUEST DES NUAGES CIRRUS
RESIDUELS. LE CENTRE DE CIRCULATION SEMBLE MEME EXPOSE SUR LES
DERNIERES IMAGES. L'IMAGE 89GHZ AMSU-B DE 1538Z MONTRE UN COEUR
ENCORE BIEN CONSTITUE MAIS EN COURS D'ELONGATION SANS CONVECTION
ASSOCIEE. AINSI, L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME EST BAISSEE AU STADE DE
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE, EN ACCORD AVEC LES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES.

SAVANNAH EST SITUE DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT MOU EN TERME DE FLUX
DIRECTEUR EN ETANT AU NORD D'UN COL BAROMETRIQUE PRESENT EN BASSE ET
MOYENNE TROPO. UNE PETITE DORSALE AU SUD SEMBLE SUFFISANTE POUR
DONNER LA TRAJECTOIRE OUEST-SUD-OUEST ACTUELLEMENT SUIVIE. ENSUITE,
PENDANT QUE LE COL BAROMETRIQUE SE DECALE VERS L'EST, SAVANNAH
S'AFFAIBLIT ET LE FLUX DIRECTEUR REDESCEND DANS LES BAS NIVEAUX OU LE
RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD DEVRAIT LAISSER LE
SYSTEME SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE GLOBALEMENT ORIENTEE A L'OUEST SUR TOUTE
LA PERIODE DE PREVISION.

LE CONTENU ENERGETIQUE DE L'OCEAN RESTE BIEN PRESENT AU NORD DE 23S.
CEPENDANT, L'ENVIRONNEMENT DIRECT DU SYSTEME EST TRES SEC. UN
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT FAIBLE A MODERE VENANT DE
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST REUSSIT A AMENER DE L'AIR SEC DANS LE COEUR DU
SYSTEME, CE QUI L'ASPHYXIE. AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS, CETTE
CONTRAINTE NE FAIBLIT PAS ET SE RENFORCE MEME MERCREDI.
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT EN COURS DEVRAIT AINSI SE POURSUIVRE AU COURS DES
PROCHAINS JOURS ET LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT DEVENIR UN MINIMUM RESIDUEL
D'ICI JEUDI.=

>

2019-03-18 18:14

WTIO30 FMEE 181814
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/12/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (SAVANNAH)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/18 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.7 S / 87.7 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SW: 320 NW: 90
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 140 SW: 190 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/19 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 86.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/03/19 18 UTC: 18.6 S / 84.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/03/20 06 UTC: 19.2 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2019/03/20 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2019/03/21 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2019/03/21 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=3.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE REMAINING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITHIN THE
NORTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE HAS TOTALLY DROPPED. THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS
VORTEX NOW APPEARS CLEARLY ON THE SOUTH-WESTERN BORDER OF THE
RESIDUAL CIRRUS CLOUDS. THE CIRCULATION CENTER SEEMS TO BE EVEN
EXPOSED ON THE LAST IMAGES. THE 89GH-Z 1538Z AMSU-B IMAGE SHOW A
STILL WELL-DEFINED CORE BUT THIS CORE BEGINS TO ELONGATE WITH NO
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THUS, THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO
THE TROPICAL STORM STAGE, IN AGREEMENT WITH THE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS.

SAVANNAH'S STEERING FLOW IS SLOW, WITHIN A MID-LEVEL FLAT LOW. A
SMALL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH SEEMS SUFFICIENT TO DRIVE THE CURRENT SLOW
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK. THEN, AS THE FLAT LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS
EASTWARDS, SAVANNAH KEEPS ON WEAKENING AND THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD
COME DOWN IN THE LOW-LEVELS WHERE THE STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
IN THE SOUTH SHOULD KEEP A GENERALLY WESTWARDS TRACK OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE OCEANIC ENERGY CONTENT REMAINS SUFFICIENT NORTH OF 23S. HOWEVER,
THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING WITHIN A DRY ATMOSPHERIC AREA. A WEAK TO
MODERATE WEST-SOUTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS ADVECTING SOME OF
THIS DRY AIR DIRECTLY INTO THE TC CORE. OVER THE NEXT DAYS, THIS
UPPER AND MID CONSTRAINT DOES NOT WEAKEN AND SHOULD EVEN INCREASE
FROM WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT WEAKENING IS THUS EXPECTED TO GO ON OVER
THE NEXT DAYS AND SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY THURSDAY.=

>

2019-03-18 18:14

WTIO20 FMEE 181810
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/03/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 005/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 18/03/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (SAVANNAH) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.7 S / 87.7 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER BETWEEN 75 NM AND 200 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 125 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 175 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/19 AT 06 UTC:
18.2 S / 86.1 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/03/19 AT 18 UTC:
18.6 S / 84.4 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2019-03-18 15:57

WTXS31 PGTW 181500 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 019A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 019A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 17.6S 88.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 88.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 18.0S 86.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 18.5S 84.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 18.9S 83.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 19.4S 82.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 19.7S 80.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 87.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1090 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE
BANDING. A 181008Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 60 KTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 3.5 TO 4.0 (55 TO 65 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES MODERATE (15-20 KT) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PARTLY
OFFSET BY POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN CONDUCIVE AT 27-28C. HOWEVER, COLD DRY AIR IS ADVECTING INTO
THE SYSTEM. TC 19S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE OVERALL UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TC 19S LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72,
POSSIBLY SOONER. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE,
THE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS HIGH. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: UPDATED REMARKS SECTION WITH
CORRECT, CURRENT REMARKS.//
NNNN

>

2019-03-18 14:53

WTXS51 PGTW 181500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 190318132553
2019031812 19S SAVANNAH 019 01 240 09 SATL 025
T000 176S 0881E 060 R050 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
090 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 180S 0865E 055 R050 010 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
090 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 185S 0849E 050 R050 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
090 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 189S 0837E 045 R034 060 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 010 NW QD
T048 194S 0824E 040 R034 060 NE QD 120 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD
T072 197S 0806E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 019
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 17.6S 88.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-03-18 14:53

WTXS31 PGTW 181500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 17.6S 88.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 88.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 18.0S 86.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-03-18 14:42

WTXS51 PGTW 181500
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 190318132553
2019031812 19S SAVANNAH 019 01 240 09 SATL 025
T000 176S 0881E 060 R050 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 180S 0865E 055 R050 010 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 185S 0849E 050 R050 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 189S 0837E 045 R034 060 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 010 NW QD
T048 194S 0824E 040 R034 060 NE QD 120 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD
T072 197S 0806E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 019
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 17.6S 88.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 88.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 18.0S 86.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 18.5S 84.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 18.9S 83.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 19.4S 82.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 19.7S 80.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 87.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1090 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.
//
1919031018 113S1077E 25
1919031100 109S1066E 25
1919031106 106S1053E 20
1919031112 104S1041E 20
1919031118 100S1025E 20
1919031200 100S1017E 20
1919031206 91S1002E 20
1919031212 89S 991E 20
1919031218 84S 977E 20
1919031300 87S 977E 20
1919031306 97S 975E 20
1919031312 104S 968E 25
1919031318 110S 966E 30
1919031400 115S 963E 35
1919031406 121S 960E 40
1919031412 126S 958E 40
1919031418 131S 954E 45
1919031500 135S 951E 45
1919031506 139S 949E 50
1919031506 139S 949E 50
1919031512 144S 948E 55
1919031512 144S 948E 55
1919031518 147S 943E 60
1919031518 147S 943E 60
1919031600 148S 938E 60
1919031600 148S 938E 60
1919031606 151S 934E 65
1919031606 151S 934E 65
1919031606 151S 934E 65
1919031612 153S 930E 75
1919031612 153S 930E 75
1919031612 153S 930E 75
1919031618 156S 923E 85
1919031618 156S 923E 85
1919031618 156S 923E 85
1919031700 160S 916E 95
1919031700 160S 916E 95
1919031700 160S 916E 95
1919031706 161S 911E 100
1919031706 161S 911E 100
1919031706 161S 911E 100
1919031712 163S 907E 100
1919031712 163S 907E 100
1919031712 163S 907E 100
1919031718 165S 901E 95
1919031718 165S 901E 95
1919031718 165S 901E 95
1919031800 168S 896E 85
1919031800 168S 896E 85
1919031800 168S 896E 85
1919031806 172S 889E 75
1919031806 172S 889E 75
1919031806 172S 889E 75
1919031812 176S 881E 60
1919031812 176S 881E 60
NNNN

>

2019-03-18 14:41

WTXS31 PGTW 180900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 17.2S 88.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 88.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 17.7S 87.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-03-18 14:40

WTXS31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 17.6S 88.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 88.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 18.0S 86.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 18.5S 84.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 18.9S 83.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 19.4S 82.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 19.7S 80.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 87.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1115 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AS DEEP RAIN BANDS
UNRAVELED AND THE EYE, ALBEIT DISCERNIBLE, BECAME CLOUD-FILLED. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE,
ADJUSTED FOR TILT BY LINING UP WITH A SEMI CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE
180338Z 25KM RESOLUTION ASCAT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KTS IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0/65KTS TO T4.5/77KTS FROM PGTW,
FMEE, AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE (15-20 KT)
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) PARTLY OFFSET BY POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN CONDUCIVE AT 27-28C.
HOWEVER, COLD DRY AIR IS ADVECTING INTO THE SYSTEM. TC 19S WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE
OVERALL UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TC 19S LEADING
TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 96, POSSIBLY SOONER. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48, AFTERWARD THE MEMBERS SIGNIFICANTLY
SPREAD OUT TO 240NM BY TAU 96. IN VIEW OF THIS, THE CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS, IS HIGH IN
THE NEAR TERM THEN LOW BEYOND TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 180600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND
190900Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-03-18 13:07

WTIO31 FMEE 181241 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/12/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 12 (SAVANNAH)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 18/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.6 S / 88.4 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT HUIT DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.0/W 2.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 987 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SO: 250 NO: 80
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 190 NO: 60
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 19/03/2019 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 86.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 19/03/2019 12 UTC: 18.2 S / 85.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 20/03/2019 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 83.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 20/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
60H: 21/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 21/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5 CI=4.0

>

2019-03-18 13:07

WTIO30 FMEE 181241 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/12/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (SAVANNAH)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/18 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6 S / 88.4 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 2.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 250 NW: 80
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 190 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/19 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 86.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/03/19 12 UTC: 18.2 S / 85.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/03/20 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 83.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/03/20 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2019/03/21 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2019/03/21 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5 CI=4.0

>

2019-03-18 13:04

WTIO31 FMEE 181241
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/12/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 12 (SAVANNAH)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 18/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.6 S / 88.4 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT HUIT DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.0/W 2.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 987 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SO: 250 NO: 80
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 190 NO: 60
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 19/03/2019 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 86.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 19/03/2019 12 UTC: 18.2 S / 85.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 20/03/2019 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 83.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 20/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
60H: 21/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 21/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5 CI=4.0

LA LEGERE AMELIORATION DE LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE NOTEE AU MOMENT
DE L'ENVOI DU DERNIER BULLETIN A ETE DE COURTE DUREE. L'IMAGERIE
MICRO-ONDES RECUE DEPUIS (AMSR-2 A 0747Z ET SSMIS A 1008Z) NE MONTRE
AUCUNE AMELIORATION DE LA STRUCTURE INTERNE. LE CENTRE APPARAIT
LOCALISE EN BORDURE SUD-OUEST DE LA MASSE CONVECTIVE EN RAISON D'UN
CISAILLEMENT FAIBLE A MODERE DE SUD-OUEST. L'INTENSITE FINALE EST
REDUITE A 55 KT EN ACCORD AVEC LES DERNIERES ESTIMATIONS SUBJECTIVES
DVORAK ET L'ESTIMATION SATCON A 64 KTS (VENTS 1-MIN) A 0754Z.

SAVANNAH EST SITUE DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT MOU EN TERME DE FLUX
DIRECTEUR EN ETANT AU NORD D'UN COL BAROMETRIQUE PRESENT EN BASSE ET
MOYENNE TROPO. UNE PETITE DORSALE PRESENTE AU SUD SEMBLE SUFFISANTE
POUR DONNER LA TRAJECTOIRE OUEST-SUD-OUEST ACTUELLEMENT SUIVIE. ALORS
QUE LE COL BAROMETRIQUE SE DECALE VERS L'EST, LE RENFORCEMENT DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE LOINTAINE AU SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT LAISSER LE
SYSTEME SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE GRADUELLEMENT ORIENTEE A L'OUEST SUR
TOUTE LA PERIODE DE PREVISION.

LE CONTENU ENERGETIQUE DE L'OCEAN NE PRESENTANT PAS REELLEMENT DE
GENE, C'EST L'ENVIRONNEMENT ATMOSPHERIQUE QUI CONTROLE L'INTENSITE DU
CYCLONE. L'IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDES SUGGERE QUE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT OBSERVE
DEPUIS HIER APRES-MIDI DE LA STRUCTURE INTERNE, EST LIE A DE
L'INTRUSION D'AIR SEC DE MOYENNE TROPO. CES INTRUSIONS SONT
ENTRETENUES PAR LA PERSISTANCE D'UN CISAILLEMENT PROFOND ET MOYEN,
FAIBLE A MODERE VENANT DE L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST ET AMENANT DE L'AIR SEC
DANS LE COEUR. PAR CONSEQUENT, LA POURSUITE DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT EN
COURS EST ENVISAGE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS ET LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
DEVENIR UN MINIMUM RESIDUEL AU PLUS TARD EN SECONDE PARTIE DE
SEMAINE.=

>

2019-03-18 13:04

WTIO30 FMEE 181241
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/12/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (SAVANNAH)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/18 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6 S / 88.4 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 2.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 250 NW: 80
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 190 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/19 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 86.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/03/19 12 UTC: 18.2 S / 85.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/03/20 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 83.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/03/20 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2019/03/21 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2019/03/21 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5 CI=4.0

THE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT OF THE CLOUD PATTERN NOTED BY THE TIME OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY WAS SHORT LIVED. MW IMAGERY RECEIVED SINCE THAT
TIME (AMSR-2 AT 0747Z AND SSMIS AT 1008Z) SHOW NO IMPROVEMENT OF THE
INNER-CORE STRUCTURE. BASED ON THE MW DATA, THE CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR THE SOUTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS DUE TO LOW TO
MODERATE DEEP LAYERS SOUTH-WESTERLY SHEAR. THE FINAL INTENSITY IS
REDUCED TO 55 KT IN LINE WITH LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES
ALONG WITH THE LATEST SATCON AT 64 KTS (1-MIN WINDS) AT 0754Z.

SAVANNAH IS LOCATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF SLOW STEERING FLOW WITHIN A
MID-LEVEL BAROMETRIC COL. A SMALL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH SEEMS ENOUGH TO
GIVE THIS SLOW GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK. AS THE BAROMETRIC
COL WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARDS, A STRENGTHENING LOW TO MID LEVEL
RIDGE LOCATED FAR TO THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP A
GENERALLY WESTWARDS TRACK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SINCE THE OCEANIC ENERGY CONTENT DOES NOT REALLY PRESENT ANY
CONSTRAINTS, IT IS THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITION THAT CONTROL THE
INTENSITY FORECAST. MW IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT SOME DRY AIR INTRUSION
HAS HELPED THE WEAKENING TREND OBSERVED SINCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.
SOME PERSISTENT LOW TO MODERATE DEEP AND MID LAYERS SHEAR FROM THE
SOUTH-WEST STILL BRING SOME DRY AIR WITHIN THE CORE. THEREFORE SOME
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE A REMNANT LOW LATER THIS WEEK.=

>

2019-03-18 12:26

WTIO20 FMEE 181224
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/03/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 004/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 18/03/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (SAVANNAH) 987 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6 S / 88.4 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 120 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 105 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 45
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 135 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/19 AT 00 UTC:
17.9 S / 86.7 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/03/19 AT 12 UTC:
18.2 S / 85.2 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2019-03-18 09:05

WTXS51 PGTW 180900
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 190318071100
2019031806 19S SAVANNAH 018 01 240 08 SATL 030
T000 172S 0889E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 177S 0875E 070 R064 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 181S 0859E 065 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 186S 0845E 060 R050 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 190S 0835E 050 R050 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD
T072 198S 0817E 040 R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD
T096 201S 0790E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 018
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 17.2S 88.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 88.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 17.7S 87.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 18.1S 85.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 18.6S 84.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 19.0S 83.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 19.8S 81.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 20.1S 79.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 88.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1115 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.
//
1919031018 113S1077E 25
1919031100 109S1066E 25
1919031106 106S1053E 20
1919031112 104S1041E 20
1919031118 100S1025E 20
1919031200 100S1017E 20
1919031206 91S1002E 20
1919031212 89S 991E 20
1919031218 84S 977E 20
1919031300 87S 977E 20
1919031306 97S 975E 20
1919031312 104S 968E 25
1919031318 110S 966E 30
1919031400 115S 963E 35
1919031406 121S 960E 40
1919031412 126S 958E 40
1919031418 131S 954E 45
1919031500 135S 951E 45
1919031506 139S 949E 50
1919031506 139S 949E 50
1919031512 144S 948E 55
1919031512 144S 948E 55
1919031518 147S 943E 60
1919031518 147S 943E 60
1919031600 148S 938E 60
1919031600 148S 938E 60
1919031606 151S 934E 65
1919031606 151S 934E 65
1919031606 151S 934E 65
1919031612 153S 930E 75
1919031612 153S 930E 75
1919031612 153S 930E 75
1919031618 156S 923E 85
1919031618 156S 923E 85
1919031618 156S 923E 85
1919031700 160S 916E 95
1919031700 160S 916E 95
1919031700 160S 916E 95
1919031706 161S 911E 100
1919031706 161S 911E 100
1919031706 161S 911E 100
1919031712 163S 907E 100
1919031712 163S 907E 100
1919031712 163S 907E 100
1919031718 165S 901E 95
1919031718 165S 901E 95
1919031718 165S 901E 95
1919031800 168S 896E 85
1919031800 168S 896E 85
1919031800 168S 896E 85
1919031806 172S 889E 75
1919031806 172S 889E 75
1919031806 172S 889E 75
NNNN

>

2019-03-18 09:04

WTXS31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 17.2S 88.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 88.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 17.7S 87.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 18.1S 85.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 18.6S 84.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 19.0S 83.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 19.8S 81.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 20.1S 79.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 88.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1115 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AS DEEP RAIN BANDS
UNRAVELED AND THE EYE, ALBEIT DISCERNIBLE, BECAME CLOUD-FILLED. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE,
ADJUSTED TILT BY LINING UP WITH A SEMI CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE
180338Z 25KM RESOLUTION ASCAT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KTS IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0/65KTS TO T4.5/77KTS FROM PGTW,
FMEE, AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE (15-20 KT)
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) PARTLY OFFSET BY POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN CONDUCIVE AT 27-28C.
HOWEVER, COLD DRY AIR IS ADVECTING INTO THE SYSTEM. TC 19S WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE
OVERALL UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TC 19S LEADING
TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 96, POSSIBLY SOONER. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48, AFTERWARD THE MEMBERS SIGNIFICANTLY
SPREAD OUT TO 240NM BY TAU 96. IN VIEW OF THIS, THE CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS, IS HIGH IN
THE NEAR TERM THEN LOW BEYOND TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 180600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND
190900Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-03-18 07:32

WTIO31 FMEE 180648 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 3/12/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 12 (SAVANNAH)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 18/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.0 S / 89.1 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT NEUF DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.5/W 1.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 983 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SO: 250 NO: 60
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 190 NO: 40
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 18/03/2019 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 87.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 19/03/2019 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 86.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 19/03/2019 18 UTC: 18.2 S / 84.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 20/03/2019 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 83.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 20/03/2019 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 21/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0- CI=4.5-

>

2019-03-18 07:32

WTIO30 FMEE 180648 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/12/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (SAVANNAH)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/18 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0 S / 89.1 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 250 NW: 60
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 190 NW: 40
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/18 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 87.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/03/19 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 86.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/03/19 18 UTC: 18.2 S / 84.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/03/20 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 83.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/03/20 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2019/03/21 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0- CI=4.5-

>

2019-03-18 07:29

WTIO31 FMEE 180648
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 3/12/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 12 (SAVANNAH)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 18/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.0 S / 89.1 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT NEUF DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.5/W 1.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 983 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SO: 250 NO: 60
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 190 NO: 40
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 18/03/2019 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 87.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 19/03/2019 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 86.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 19/03/2019 18 UTC: 18.2 S / 84.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 20/03/2019 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 83.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 20/03/2019 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 21/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0- CI=4.5-

LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES DE LA NUIT ONT MONTRE UN SYSTEME AVEC UNE
STRUCTURE INTERNE PEU DEFINIE. LES PREMIERES IMAGES VISIBLES ONT
MONTRE CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE PSEUDO-CISAILLEE AVEC UN CENTRE EN
BORDURE NORD-OUEST DE LA MASSE CONVECTIVE. RECEMMENT, L'ACTIVITE
CONVECTIVE A DE NOUVEAU RECOUVERT LE CENTRE ET UNE AMORCE DE NOUVEL
OEIL EST APPARENT SUR LES IMAGES VISIBLES. L'INTENSITE FINALE EST
PORTEE A 60 KT JUSTE EN DESSOUS DE L'ANALYSE SUBJECTIVE DE DVORAK ET
PROCHE DU SATCON A 73 KT (VENTS 1-MIN) DE 0205Z.

SAVANNAH EST SITUE DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT MOU EN TERME DE FLUX
DIRECTEUR EN ETANT AU NORD D'UN COL BAROMETRIQUE PRESENT EN BASSE ET
MOYENNE TROPO. UNE PETITE DORSALE PRESENTE AU SUD SEMBLE SUFFISANTE
POUR DONNER LA TRAJECTOIRE OUEST ACTUELLEMENT SUIVIE. ALORS QUE LE
COL BAROMETRIQUE SE DECALE VERS L'EST, LE RENFORCEMENT DE LA DRSALE
SUBTROPICALE LOINTAINE AU SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT LAISSER LE SYSTEME SUR LA
TRAJECTOIRE ACTUELLE SUR TOUTE LA PERIODE DE PREVISION AVEC UNE
ACCELERATION GRADUELLE DE LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT.

LE CONTENU ENERGETIQUE DE L'OCEAN NE PRESENTANT PAS REELLEMENT DE
GENE, C'EST L'ENVIRONNEMENT ATMOSPHERIQUE QUI CONTROLE L'INTENSITE DU
CYCLONE. L'IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDES SUGGERE QUE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT OBSERVE
DEPUIS HIER APRES-MIDI DE LA STRUCTURE INTERNE, EST LIE A DE
L'INTRUSION D'AIR SEC DE MOYENNE TROPO. CES INTRUSIONS SONT
ENTRETENUE PAR LA PERSISTANCE D'UN CISAILLEMENT PROFOND ET MOYEN,
FAIBLE A MODERE VENANT DE L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST ET AMENANT DE L'AIR SEC
DANS LE COEUR. TOUTEFOIS, L'AMELIORATION EN COURS DE LA CONFIGURATION
NUAGEUSE INDIQUE QUE CES CONDITIONS NE SONT PAS SUFFISAMMENT HOSTILES
POUR AFFAIBLIR POUR POURSUIVRE UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT SIGNIFICATIF. C'EST
UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT LENT QUI EST DONC ENVISAGE POUR LES PROCHAINES
12-24H AVANT D'UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT PLUS CONSEQUENT JUSQU'A DISSIPATION
AU-DELA EN LIAISON AVEC L'AUGMENTATION FRANCHE DU CISAILLEMENT
D'OUEST.=

>

2019-03-18 07:29

WTIO30 FMEE 180648
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/12/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (SAVANNAH)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/18 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0 S / 89.1 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 250 NW: 60
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 190 NW: 40
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/18 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 87.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/03/19 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 86.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/03/19 18 UTC: 18.2 S / 84.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/03/20 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 83.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/03/20 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2019/03/21 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0- CI=4.5-

MW IMAGERY OVERNIGHT DEPICT A POORLY DEFINED INNER CORE STRUCTURE OF
TC SAVANNAH. FIRST VIS IMAGERY SHOW A SHEAR-LIKE PATTERN WITH THE
CENTER PARTLY EXPOSED TO THE NORTH-WEST OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS.
RECENTLY, THE CENTER HAS BEEN EMBEDDED AGAIN WITHIN THE THUNDERSTORM
AREA WITH SOME ATTEMPT OF FORMATION OF A NEW EYE ON VIS IMAGERY. THE
FINAL INTENSITY IS SET BELOW THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND
CLOSE TO A SATCON ESTIMATES AT 73 KT (1-MIN WINDS) AT 0205Z.

SAVANNAH IS LOCATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF SLOW STEERING FLOW WITHIN A
MID-LEVEL BAROMETRIC COL. A SMALL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH SEEMS ENOUGH TO
GIVE THIS SLOW GENERALLY WESTWARDS TRACK. AS THE BAROMETRIC COL WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARDS, A STRENGTHENING LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE
LOCATED FAR TO THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE CURRENT
TRACK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SOME GRADUAL INCREASE OF THE
FORWARD MOTION.

SINCE THE OCEANIC ENERGY CONTENT DOES NOT REALLY PRESENT ANY
CONSTRAINTS, IT IS THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITION THAT CONTROL THE
INTENSITY FORECAST. MW IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT SOME DRY AIR INTRUSION
HAS HELPED THE WEAKENING TREND OBSERVED SINCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.
SOME PERSISTENT LOW TO MODERATE DEEP AND MID LAYERS SHEAR FROM THE
WEST-SOUTH-WEST STILL BRING SOME DRY AIR WITHIN THE CORE BUT THE
RECENT IMPROVEMENT OF THE CLOUD PATTERN SUGGEST THAT THIS CONDITION
ARE NOT HOSTILE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT
WEAKENING. THERFORE SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT
12-24 HRS. BEYOND THAT, INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE
FURTHER WEAKENING TOWARDS FINAL DISSIPATION.=

>

2019-03-18 06:39

WTIO20 FMEE 180638
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/03/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 003/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 18/03/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (SAVANNAH) 983 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0 S / 89.1 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 150-200 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 105 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 35
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 135 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/18 AT 18 UTC:
17.5 S / 87.5 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/03/19 AT 06 UTC:
17.8 S / 86.0 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2019-03-18 02:48

WTXS51 PGTW 180300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 190318012828
2019031800 19S SAVANNAH 017 01 240 06 SATL 015
T000 168S 0896E 085 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
035 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 085 SE QD
095 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 173S 0883E 080 R064 015 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD
095 SW QD 055 NW QD
T024 177S 0869E 075 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD
090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 182S 0856E 065 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD
080 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 186S 0846E 055 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
080 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 020 NW QD
T072 197S 0826E 040 R034 040 NE QD 130 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD
T096 204S 0805E 035 R034 060 NE QD 110 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T120 210S 0775E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 017
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 16.8S 89.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

>

2019-03-18 02:48

WTXS31 PGTW 180300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 16.8S 89.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 89.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 17.3S 88.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-03-18 02:42

WTXS51 PGTW 180300
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 190318012828
2019031800 19S SAVANNAH 017 01 240 06 SATL 015
T000 168S 0896E 085 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 085 SE QD 095 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 173S 0883E 080 R064 015 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 095 SW QD 055 NW QD
T024 177S 0869E 075 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 182S 0856E 065 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 186S 0846E 055 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 020 NW QD
T072 197S 0826E 040 R034 040 NE QD 130 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD
T096 204S 0805E 035 R034 060 NE QD 110 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T120 210S 0775E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 017
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 16.8S 89.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 89.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 17.3S 88.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 17.7S 86.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 18.2S 85.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 18.6S 84.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.7S 82.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 20.4S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 21.0S 77.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 89.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.//
1919031018 113S1077E 25
1919031100 109S1066E 25
1919031106 106S1053E 20
1919031112 104S1041E 20
1919031118 100S1025E 20
1919031200 100S1017E 20
1919031206 91S1002E 20
1919031212 89S 991E 20
1919031218 84S 977E 20
1919031300 87S 977E 20
1919031306 97S 975E 20
1919031312 104S 968E 25
1919031318 110S 966E 30
1919031400 115S 963E 35
1919031406 121S 960E 40
1919031412 126S 958E 40
1919031418 131S 954E 45
1919031500 135S 951E 45
1919031506 139S 949E 50
1919031506 139S 949E 50
1919031512 144S 948E 55
1919031512 144S 948E 55
1919031518 147S 943E 60
1919031518 147S 943E 60
1919031600 148S 938E 60
1919031600 148S 938E 60
1919031606 151S 934E 65
1919031606 151S 934E 65
1919031606 151S 934E 65
1919031612 153S 930E 75
1919031612 153S 930E 75
1919031612 153S 930E 75
1919031618 156S 923E 85
1919031618 156S 923E 85
1919031618 156S 923E 85
1919031700 160S 916E 95
1919031700 160S 916E 95
1919031700 160S 916E 95
1919031706 161S 911E 100
1919031706 161S 911E 100
1919031706 161S 911E 100
1919031712 163S 907E 100
1919031712 163S 907E 100
1919031712 163S 907E 100
1919031718 165S 901E 95
1919031718 165S 901E 95
1919031718 165S 901E 95
1919031800 168S 896E 85
1919031800 168S 896E 85
1919031800 168S 896E 85
NNNN

>

2019-03-18 02:41

WTXS31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 16.8S 89.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 89.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 17.3S 88.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 17.7S 86.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 18.2S 85.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 18.6S 84.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.7S 82.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 20.4S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 21.0S 77.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 89.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING AND
BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 172350Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
WHICH SHOWS THE UNDERLYING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON THE
NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85
KTS IS ON THE HIGH SIDE, BUT CONSISTENT WITH, PGTW AND KNES DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KTS). THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE OVERALL WITH STRONG (20-25 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) BEING PARTIALLY OFFSET BY A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE AT 26-27
CELSIUS. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 19S WILL TRACK ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT WILL PERSIST AND CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING UNTIL
DISSIPATION, EXPECTED BETWEEN TAU 96 AND TAU 120. THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS CONSENSUS, IN LINE WITH THE BULK OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, THERE ARE EQUATORWARD (GALWEM AND UKMET)
AND POLEWARD (NAVGEM) OUTLIERS THAT MAKE THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD
ABOUT 370 NM BY TAU 120. OF THE MEMBERS THAT FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK
TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL VARIATION IN ALONG-
TRACK SPEED. FOR THOSE REASONS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 30
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-03-18 00:40

WTIO31 FMEE 180024 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 2/12/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 12 (SAVANNAH)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 18/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.8 S / 89.8 E
(SEIZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT NEUF DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 966 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SO: 220 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 70
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 50
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 18/03/2019 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 88.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 19/03/2019 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 87.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 19/03/2019 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 86.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 20/03/2019 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 84.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 20/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 21/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 22/03/2019 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5- CI=5.0-

>

2019-03-18 00:40

WTIO30 FMEE 180024 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/12/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (SAVANNAH)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/18 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 89.8 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 966 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 70
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/18 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 88.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/19 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 87.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/03/19 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 86.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/03/20 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 84.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/03/20 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/03/21 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/22 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5- CI=5.0-

>

2019-03-18 00:37

WTIO31 FMEE 180024
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 2/12/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 12 (SAVANNAH)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 18/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.8 S / 89.8 E
(SEIZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT NEUF DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 966 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SO: 220 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 70
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 50
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 18/03/2019 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 88.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 19/03/2019 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 87.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 19/03/2019 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 86.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 20/03/2019 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 84.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 20/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 21/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 22/03/2019 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5- CI=5.0-

LA CONFIGURATION EN CDO PERSISTE AVEC UN CENTRE QUI SE MAINTENT EN
BORDURE OUEST DE LA CONVECTION, COMME LE MONTRE LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDE
DE 2133UTC. CELA CONFIRME LA PRESENCE ACCRUE DU CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL
DE VENT QUI EST ANALYSE PAR LE CIMSS ET QUI VA CONTINUER D'AUGMENTER,
LAISSANT LE SYSTEME EN LIMITE DE CONFIGURATION CISAILLE. PAR
CONSEQUENT, L'ANALYSE DVORAK CONTINUE D'ETRE REVUE A LA BAISSE
PERMETTANT D'ESTIMER DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 75KT.

SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE ALTITUDE AU SUD DU SYSTEME
QUI SE PROLONGE A L'EST, LA TRAJECTOIRE DE SAVANNAH A PRIS UNE
ORIENTATION SUD-OUEST VOIRE OUEST-SUD-OUEST. LES DIFFERENTS MODELES
RESTENT EN BON ACCORD SUR LA DIRECTION OUEST-SUD-OUEST QUI VA SE
MAINTENIR AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS. CEPENDANT ILS CONTINUENT DE
PRESENTER UNE FORTE VARIABILITE EN TERME DE VITESSE. LES PREVISIONS
DU CMRS SE BASENT SUR UN CONSENSUS DE CES DIFFERENTES VITESSES.

SAVANNAH EST MAINTENANT SOUMIS A UN CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST-SUD-OUEST
QUI VA RAPIDEMENT AUGMENTE PAR LE SUD. LE CONTENU ENERGETIQUE DE
L'OCEAN NE PRESENTANT PAS REELLEMENT DE GENE, C'EST L'ENVIRONNEMENT
D'ALTITUDE QUI LIMITE L'INTENSITE DU CYCLONE. CETTE DIMINUTION EST
DES A PRESENT BIEN NETTE ET VA PERDURER. PAR LA SUITE, TOUJOURS SOUS
L'INFLUENCE D'UN FORT CISAILLEMENT AIDE PAR L'INTRUSION D'AIR SEC,
SAVANNAH VA POURSUIVRE SA ROUTE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST AVANT DE
COMMENCER SON COMBLEMENT A PARTIR DE JEUDI.=

>

2019-03-18 00:37

WTIO30 FMEE 180024
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/12/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (SAVANNAH)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/18 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 89.8 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 966 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 70
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/18 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 88.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/19 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 87.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/03/19 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 86.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/03/20 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 84.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/03/20 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/03/21 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/22 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5- CI=5.0-

THE CDO PATTERN PERSISTS WITH A CENTRE THAT REMAINS ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF CONVECTION, AS SHOWN IN THE 2133UTC MICROWAVE IMAGES. THIS
CONFIRMS THE INCREASED PRESENCE OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS
ANALYZED BY THE CIMSS AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE, LEAVING THE
SYSTEM AT THE SHEAR CONFIGURATION LIMIT. CONSEQUENTLY, THE DVORAK
ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO BE REVISED DOWNWARDS TO ESTIMATE WINDS IN THE
ORDER OF 75KT.

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM THAT
EXTENDS TO THE EAST, THE SAVANNAH TRACK HAS TAKEN A SOUTHWEST OR EVEN
WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION. THE DIFFERENT MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION THAT WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. HOWEVER, THEY CONTINUE TO SHOW A HIGH VARIABILITY IN TERMS
OF SPEED. RSMC'S FORECASTS ARE BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THESE
DIFFERENT SPEEDS.

SAVANNAH IS NOW SUBJECTED TO A WEST-SOUTHWEST SHEAR THAT IS RAPIDLY
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH. SINCE THE OCEANIC ENERGY CONTENT DOES NOT
REALLY PRESENT ANY CONSTRAINTS, IT IS THE ALTITUDE ENVIRONMENT THAT
LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE. THIS DECREASE IS NOW VERY CLEAR
AND WILL CONTINUE. THEREAFTER, STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG
SHEAR ASSISTED BY THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR, SAVANNAH WILL CONTINUE
WEST-SOUTHWEST AT THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE BEFORE STARTING
TO FILL IN ON THURSDAY.=

>

2019-03-18 00:04

WTIO20 FMEE 180005
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/03/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 002/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 18/03/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (SAVANNAH) 966 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 89.8 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/18 AT 12 UTC:
17.3 S / 88.5 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/03/19 AT 00 UTC:
17.6 S / 87.4 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2019-03-17 20:19

WTXS51 PGTW 172100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 190317193149
2019031718 19S SAVANNAH 016 01 260 06 SATL XTRP 020
T000 164S 0901E 095 R064 015 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD
090 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 168S 0889E 090 R064 015 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
025 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 090 SE QD
095 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 172S 0877E 085 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD
100 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 177S 0863E 075 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD
100 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 181S 0853E 065 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
010 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD
090 SW QD 030 NW QD
T072 190S 0838E 045 R034 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD
T096 196S 0823E 035 R034 000 NE QD 050 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD
T120 200S 0797E 025
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 16.4S 90.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS

>

2019-03-17 20:19

WTXS31 PGTW 172100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 16.4S 90.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 90.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 16.8S 88.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-03-17 20:05

WTXS51 PGTW 172100
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 190317193149
2019031718 19S SAVANNAH 016 01 260 06 SATL XTRP 020
T000 164S 0901E 095 R064 015 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 168S 0889E 090 R064 015 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 090 SE QD 095 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 172S 0877E 085 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 177S 0863E 075 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 181S 0853E 065 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 030 NW QD
T072 190S 0838E 045 R034 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD
T096 196S 0823E 035 R034 000 NE QD 050 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD
T120 200S 0797E 025
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 16.4S 90.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 90.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 16.8S 88.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 17.2S 87.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 17.7S 86.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 18.1S 85.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 19.0S 83.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 19.6S 82.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 20.0S 79.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 89.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 10018 NM NORTHEAST OF MIAMI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z.//
1919031018 113S1077E 25
1919031100 109S1066E 25
1919031106 106S1053E 20
1919031112 104S1041E 20
1919031118 100S1025E 20
1919031200 100S1017E 20
1919031206 91S1002E 20
1919031212 89S 991E 20
1919031218 84S 977E 20
1919031300 87S 977E 20
1919031306 97S 975E 20
1919031312 104S 968E 25
1919031318 110S 966E 30
1919031400 115S 963E 35
1919031406 121S 960E 40
1919031412 126S 958E 40
1919031418 131S 954E 45
1919031500 135S 951E 45
1919031506 139S 949E 50
1919031506 139S 949E 50
1919031512 144S 948E 55
1919031512 144S 948E 55
1919031518 147S 943E 60
1919031518 147S 943E 60
1919031600 148S 938E 60
1919031600 148S 938E 60
1919031606 151S 934E 65
1919031606 151S 934E 65
1919031606 151S 934E 65
1919031612 153S 930E 75
1919031612 153S 930E 75
1919031612 153S 930E 75
1919031618 156S 923E 85
1919031618 156S 923E 85
1919031618 156S 923E 85
1919031700 160S 916E 95
1919031700 160S 916E 95
1919031700 160S 916E 95
1919031706 161S 911E 100
1919031706 161S 911E 100
1919031706 161S 911E 100
1919031712 163S 907E 100
1919031712 163S 907E 100
1919031712 163S 907E 100
1919031718 164S 901E 95
1919031718 164S 901E 95
1919031718 164S 901E 95
NNNN

>

2019-03-17 20:04

WTXS31 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 16.4S 90.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 90.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 16.8S 88.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 17.2S 87.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 17.7S 86.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 18.1S 85.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 19.0S 83.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 19.6S 82.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 20.0S 79.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 89.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 471 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE EYE HAS BECOME LOST AND THE
OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE HAS DECAYED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR
IMAGERY AND EXTRAPOLATING FROM 171449Z METOP-A AND 171600Z METOP-B
ASCAT IMAGES WHICH REVEAL A TIGHT CIRCULATION AND A CLEAR LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KTS FALLS BETWEEN
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM T5.0-T5.5 (90-102 KTS). THE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH MODERATE (15-20 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND RADIAL OUTFLOW BEING OFFSET BY DRY AIR
WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION FROM THE WEST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
IS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE AT 26-27 CELSIUS. FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST, TC 19S WILL TRACK ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN HOSTILE, AND STEADY
WEAKENING WILL OCCUR, UNTIL TC 19S DISSIPATES PRIOR TO TAU 120. THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE BULK OF NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND
THE CONSENSUS TRACK, HOWEVER, THERE ARE NORTHERN (UKMET AND GALWEM)
AND SOUTHERN (NAVGEM) OUTLIERS THAT CAUSE THE SPREAD TO EXCEED 300
NM BY TAU 120, LENDING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-03-17 18:35

WTIO31 FMEE 171835 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 1/12/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 12 (SAVANNAH)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 17/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.5 S / 90.1 E
(SEIZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-DIX DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 962 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SO: 220 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 70
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 50
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 18/03/2019 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 89.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 18/03/2019 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 87.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 19/03/2019 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 86.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 19/03/2019 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 85.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 20/03/2019 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 84.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 20/03/2019 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 83.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 21/03/2019 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 80.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
120H: 22/03/2019 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 78.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.0+ CI=5.5

>

2019-03-17 18:35

WTIO30 FMEE 171835 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/12/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (SAVANNAH)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/17 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.5 S / 90.1 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
NINETY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 962 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 70
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/18 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 89.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/18 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 87.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/19 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 86.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/03/19 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 85.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/03/20 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 84.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/03/20 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 83.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/21 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 80.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
120H: 2019/03/22 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 78.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0+ CI=5.5

>

2019-03-17 18:33

WTIO31 FMEE 171835
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 1/12/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 12 (SAVANNAH)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 17/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.5 S / 90.1 E
(SEIZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-DIX DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 962 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SO: 220 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 70
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 50
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 18/03/2019 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 89.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 18/03/2019 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 87.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 19/03/2019 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 86.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 19/03/2019 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 85.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 20/03/2019 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 84.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 20/03/2019 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 83.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 21/03/2019 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 80.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
120H: 22/03/2019 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 78.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.0+ CI=5.5

LE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE SAVANNAH ETAIT JUSQU'ALORS SUIVI PAR LE
CENTRE DE PERTH (BULLETINS IDW27600). A PARTIR DE CE DIMANCHE 17 MARS
A 18UTC, LE CMRS DE LA REUNION REPREND LE SUIVI DU SYSTEME SUITE A
SON PASSAGE DU 90AOE.

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN CDO PRECEDEMMENT
ANALYSEE PAR LE CENTRE DE PERTH S'EST MAINTENUE AVEC UNE CONVECTION
QUI RESTE ENCORE BIEN FROIDE. LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES DE 1246UTC
LAISSENT SUPPOSER UNE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC QUI LIMITE UN PEU
L'INTENSITE DU CYCLONE. CEPENDANT, AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES, LE
CENTRE DU SYSTEME SE LOCALISE DE PLUS EN PLUS EN LIMITE OUEST DE LA
CONVECTION, POUVANT LAISSER SUPPOSER UNE INFLUENCE GRANDISSANTE DU
CISAILLEMENT DE VENT ENCORE EN LIMITE SUD.

SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE ALTITUDE AU SUD DU SYSTEME
QUI SE PROLONGE A L'EST, LA TRAJECTOIRE DE SAVANNAH VA PRENDRE UNE
ORIENTATION OUEST-SUD-OUEST. LES DIFFERENTS MODELES SONT EN BON
ACCORD SUR LA DIRECTION OUEST-SUD-OUEST QUI VA SE MAINTENIR AU COURS
DES PROCHAINS JOURS. CEPENDANT ILS PRESENTENT UNE FORTE VARIABILITE
EN TERME DE VITESSE. LES DERNIERES GUIDANCES MONTRENT UNE
ACCELERATION QUI EST PRISE EN COURS DANS LES PREVISIONS DU CMRS.

ACTUELLEMENT DANS UNE ZONE DE FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT DE VENT, SAVANNAH
VA PROGRESSIVEMENT ETRE SOUMIS A UN CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST QUI VA
RAPIDEMENT AUGMENTE PAR LE SUD. LE CONTENU ENERGETIQUE DE L'OCEAN NE
PRESENTANT PAS REELLEMENT DE GENE, C'EST L'ENVIRONNEMENT D'ALTITUDE
QUI VA LIMITER L'INTENSITE DU CYCLONE. TOUT D'ABORD PAR UNE
DIMINUTION TIMIDEMENT AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24HEURES, UN NET
AFFAIBLISSEMENT EN JOURNEE DE MARDI VA SE FAIRE SENTIR. PAR LA SUITE,
TOUJOURS SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UN FORT CISAILLEMENT AIDE PAR L'INTRUSION
D'AIR SEC, SAVANNAH VA POURSUIVRE SA ROUTE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST AU
STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE AVANT DE COMMENCER SON COMBLEMENT
A PARTIR DE JEUDI.=

>

2019-03-17 18:33

WTIO30 FMEE 171835
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/12/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (SAVANNAH)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/17 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.5 S / 90.1 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
NINETY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 962 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 70
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/18 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 89.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/18 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 87.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/19 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 86.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/03/19 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 85.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/03/20 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 84.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/03/20 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 83.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/21 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 80.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
120H: 2019/03/22 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 78.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0+ CI=5.5

THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE SAVANNAH WAS UNTIL THEN FOLLOWED BY THE
PERTH CENTRE (IDW27600 BULLETINS). FROM THIS SUNDAY 17 MARCH AT
18UTC, LA REUNION RSMC WILL RESUME THE MONITORING OF THIS SYSTEM DUE
ITS PASSAGE OF THE 90TH.

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CDO PATTERN PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED BY THE
PERTH CENTER HAS BEEN MAINTAINED WITH A CONVECTION THAT IS STILL VERY
COLD. THE 1246UTC MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST AN INTRUSION OF DRY AIR
THAT SOMEWHAT LIMITS THE INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER, IN THE
LAST FEW HOURS, THE CENTRE OF THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY
LOCATED AT THE WESTERN LIMIT OF CONVECTION, SUGGESTING A GROWING
INFLUENCE OF THE WIND SHEAR STILL AT THE SOUTHERN LIMIT.

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM THAT
EXTENDS TO THE EAST, THE SAVANNAH TRACK WILL TAKE A WEST-SOUTHWEST
MOTION. THE DIFFERENT MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION THAT WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. HOWEVER, THEY HAVE A HIGH VARIABILITY IN TERMS OF SPEED. THE
LATEST GUIDANCES SHOW AN ACCELERATION THAT IS BEING TAKEN INTO
ACCOUNT IN THE RSMC FORECASTS.

CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF WEAK WIND SHEAR, SAVANNAH WILL GRADUALLY BE
SUBJECTED TO A WESTERLY WIND SHEAR THAT WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH. SINCE THE OCEANIC ENERGY CONTENT DOES NOT REALLY PRESENT
ANY CONSTRAINTS, IT IS THE ALTITUDE ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL LIMIT THE
INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE. FIRST OF ALL BY A TIMID DECREASE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IN TUESDAY'S DAY WILL BE FELT.
THEREAFTER, STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG SHEAR ASSISTED BY THE
INTRUSION OF DRY AIR, SAVANNAH WILL CONTINUE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT THE
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE BEFORE STARTING TO FILL IN ON THURSDAY.=

>

2019-03-17 14:33

WTXS51 PGTW 171500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 190317132631
2019031712 19S SAVANNAH 015 01 240 04 SATL 025
T000 164S 0906E 100 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 095 SE QD
090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 168S 0895E 095 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD
090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 173S 0882E 090 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD
100 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 178S 0869E 085 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD
100 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 182S 0856E 075 R064 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
010 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD
090 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 191S 0840E 055 R050 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
030 NE QD 110 SE QD 060 SW QD 010 NW QD
T096 198S 0828E 040 R034 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD
T120 203S 0805E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 16.4S 90.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM

>

2019-03-17 14:33

WTXS31 PGTW 171500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 16.4S 90.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 90.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 16.8S 89.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-03-17 14:28

WTXS51 PGTW 171500
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 190317132631
2019031712 19S SAVANNAH 015 01 240 04 SATL 025
T000 164S 0906E 100 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 168S 0895E 095 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 173S 0882E 090 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 178S 0869E 085 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 182S 0856E 075 R064 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 191S 0840E 055 R050 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 110 SE QD 060 SW QD 010 NW QD
T096 198S 0828E 040 R034 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD
T120 203S 0805E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 16.4S 90.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 90.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 16.8S 89.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 17.3S 88.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 17.8S 86.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 18.2S 85.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 19.1S 84.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 19.8S 82.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 20.3S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 90.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 234 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.
//
1919031018 113S1077E 25
1919031100 109S1066E 25
1919031106 106S1053E 20
1919031112 104S1041E 20
1919031118 100S1025E 20
1919031200 100S1017E 20
1919031206 91S1002E 20
1919031212 89S 991E 20
1919031218 84S 977E 20
1919031300 87S 977E 20
1919031306 97S 975E 20
1919031312 104S 968E 25
1919031318 110S 966E 30
1919031400 115S 963E 35
1919031406 121S 960E 40
1919031412 126S 958E 40
1919031418 131S 954E 45
1919031500 135S 951E 45
1919031506 139S 949E 50
1919031506 139S 949E 50
1919031512 144S 948E 55
1919031512 144S 948E 55
1919031518 147S 943E 60
1919031518 147S 943E 60
1919031600 148S 938E 60
1919031600 148S 938E 60
1919031606 151S 934E 65
1919031606 151S 934E 65
1919031606 151S 934E 65
1919031612 153S 930E 75
1919031612 153S 930E 75
1919031612 153S 930E 75
1919031618 156S 923E 85
1919031618 156S 923E 85
1919031618 156S 923E 85
1919031700 160S 916E 95
1919031700 160S 916E 95
1919031700 160S 916E 95
1919031706 162S 910E 100
1919031706 162S 910E 100
1919031706 162S 910E 100
1919031712 164S 906E 100
1919031712 164S 906E 100
1919031712 164S 906E 100
NNNN

>

2019-03-17 14:22

WTXS31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 16.4S 90.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 90.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 16.8S 89.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 17.3S 88.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 17.8S 86.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 18.2S 85.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 19.1S 84.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 19.8S 82.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 20.3S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 90.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 234 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ITS OVERALL CONVECTIVE
SIGNATURE WITH DEEP RAIN BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A 10NM PINHOLE
EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
EYE, ADJUSTED FOR A NORTHWARD TILT BY LINING UP WITH A WELL-DEFINED
NEAR SURFACE MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 171021Z SSMIS 37GHZ COLORIZED
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
OF T5.5/102KTS FROM PGTW, APRF, AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND A ROBUST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AT 27-28C ARE CONDUCIVE. TC 19S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 19S HAS
PEAKED AND WILL NOW GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND DRY
COLD AIR INTRUSION LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 72, AFTERWARD THE MEMBERS
SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD OUT TO 210NM BY TAU 120. IN VIEW OF THIS, THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS, IS HIGH IN THE NEAR TERM THEN LOW BEYOND TAU 72. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-03-17 08:28

WTXS51 PGTW 170900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 190317072602
2019031706 19S SAVANNAH 014 01 240 06 SATL 025
T000 163S 0910E 100 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD
100 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 168S 0900E 100 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD
080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 172S 0887E 095 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD
090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 176S 0876E 090 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD
090 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 180S 0865E 085 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD
090 SW QD 030 NW QD
T072 188S 0847E 070 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 100 SE QD
060 SW QD 020 NW QD
T096 195S 0834E 055 R050 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
050 NE QD 120 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD
T120 202S 0815E 040 R034 040 NE QD 115 SE QD 035 SW QD 010 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 16.3S 91.0E

>

2019-03-17 08:28

WTXS31 PGTW 170900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 16.3S 91.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 91.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 16.8S 90.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-03-17 08:16

WTXS51 PGTW 170900
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 190317072602
2019031706 19S SAVANNAH 014 01 240 06 SATL 025
T000 163S 0910E 100 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 100 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 168S 0900E 100 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 172S 0887E 095 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 176S 0876E 090 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 180S 0865E 085 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 030 NW QD
T072 188S 0847E 070 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD
T096 195S 0834E 055 R050 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 120 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD
T120 202S 0815E 040 R034 040 NE QD 115 SE QD 035 SW QD 010 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 16.3S 91.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 91.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 16.8S 90.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 17.2S 88.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 17.6S 87.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 18.0S 86.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 18.8S 84.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 19.5S 83.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 20.2S 81.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 90.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.
//
1919031018 113S1077E 25
1919031100 109S1066E 25
1919031106 106S1053E 20
1919031112 104S1041E 20
1919031118 100S1025E 20
1919031200 100S1017E 20
1919031206 91S1002E 20
1919031212 89S 991E 20
1919031218 84S 977E 20
1919031300 87S 977E 20
1919031306 97S 975E 20
1919031312 104S 968E 25
1919031318 110S 966E 30
1919031400 115S 963E 35
1919031406 121S 960E 40
1919031412 126S 958E 40
1919031418 131S 954E 45
1919031500 135S 951E 45
1919031506 139S 949E 50
1919031506 139S 949E 50
1919031512 144S 948E 55
1919031512 144S 948E 55
1919031518 147S 943E 60
1919031518 147S 943E 60
1919031600 148S 938E 60
1919031600 148S 938E 60
1919031606 151S 934E 65
1919031606 151S 934E 65
1919031606 151S 934E 65
1919031612 153S 930E 75
1919031612 153S 930E 75
1919031612 153S 930E 75
1919031618 156S 923E 85
1919031618 156S 923E 85
1919031618 156S 923E 85
1919031700 160S 916E 95
1919031700 160S 916E 95
1919031700 160S 916E 95
1919031706 163S 910E 100
1919031706 163S 910E 100
1919031706 163S 910E 100
NNNN

>

2019-03-17 08:12

WTXS31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 16.3S 91.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 91.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 16.8S 90.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 17.2S 88.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 17.6S 87.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 18.0S 86.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 18.8S 84.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 19.5S 83.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 20.2S 81.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 90.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER IMPROVED AS DEEP RAIN BANDS
WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A 10NM PINHOLE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE, ADJUSTED FOR A
NORTHWARD TILT BY LINING UP WITH A WELL-DEFINED NEAR SURFACE
CIRCULATION IN THE 170329Z ASCAT DIRECT PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 100 KTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.5/102KTS FROM PGTW AND
KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT 27-28C ARE CONDUCIVE. TC 19S WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND DRY
COLD AIR INTRUSION WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN TO 40 KTS BY TAU
120. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 72, AFTERWARD
THE MEMBERS SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD OUT TO 200NM BY TAU 120. IN VIEW OF
THIS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU
72, THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 170600Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z
AND 180900Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-03-17 03:03

WTXS51 PGTW 170300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 190317014506
2019031700 19S SAVANNAH 013 01 235 08 SATL 010
T000 161S 0916E 085 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 095 SE QD
085 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 166S 0907E 090 R064 015 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 090 SE QD
080 SW QD 055 NW QD
T024 171S 0896E 095 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD
090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 174S 0886E 090 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD
100 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 178S 0875E 085 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD
090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 187S 0855E 060 R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
070 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 020 NW QD
T096 195S 0839E 040 R034 040 NE QD 110 SE QD 050 SW QD 010 NW QD
T120 202S 0822E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 15.6S 92.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM

>

2019-03-17 03:03

WTXS31 PGTW 170300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 16.1S 91.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 91.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 16.6S 90.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-03-17 02:38

WTXS51 PGTW 170300
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 190317014506
2019031700 19S SAVANNAH 013 01 235 08 SATL 010
T000 161S 0916E 085 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 166S 0907E 090 R064 015 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 055 NW QD
T024 171S 0896E 095 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 174S 0886E 090 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 178S 0875E 085 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 187S 0855E 060 R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 020 NW QD
T096 195S 0839E 040 R034 040 NE QD 110 SE QD 050 SW QD 010 NW QD
T120 202S 0822E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 15.6S 92.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 92.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 16.0S 91.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 16.5S 90.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 16.8S 89.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 17.2S 88.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 17.7S 86.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 18.3S 85.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 19.0S 83.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 92.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 341 NM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.//
1919031018 113S1077E 25
1919031100 109S1066E 25
1919031106 106S1053E 20
1919031112 104S1041E 20
1919031118 100S1025E 20
1919031200 100S1017E 20
1919031206 91S1002E 20
1919031212 89S 991E 20
1919031218 84S 977E 20
1919031300 87S 977E 20
1919031306 97S 975E 20
1919031312 104S 968E 25
1919031318 110S 966E 30
1919031400 115S 963E 35
1919031406 121S 960E 40
1919031412 126S 958E 40
1919031418 131S 954E 45
1919031500 135S 951E 45
1919031506 139S 949E 50
1919031506 139S 949E 50
1919031512 144S 948E 55
1919031512 144S 948E 55
1919031518 147S 943E 60
1919031518 147S 943E 60
1919031600 148S 938E 60
1919031600 148S 938E 60
1919031606 151S 934E 65
1919031606 151S 934E 65
1919031606 151S 934E 65
1919031612 153S 930E 75
1919031612 153S 930E 75
1919031612 153S 930E 75
1919031618 156S 923E 85
1919031618 156S 923E 85
1919031618 156S 923E 85
NNNN

>

2019-03-17 02:37

WTXS31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 16.1S 91.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 91.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 16.6S 90.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 17.1S 89.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 17.4S 88.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 17.8S 87.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 18.7S 85.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.5S 83.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 20.2S 82.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 91.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN INTERMITTENT 11 NM WIDE EYE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON AN EYE FEATURE IN A 162331Z GMI 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KTS IS JUST BELOW
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.0-T5.5 (90-102 KTS) BASED ON THE
INTERMITTENT NATURE OF THE EYE IN EIR IMAGERY. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND RADIAL OUTFLOW, WITH A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS MARGINAL AT 26-27 CELSIUS. TC 19S IS
TRACKING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A DISJOINTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE SOUTH. THIS STR WILL DOMINATE THE STEERING THROUGH TAU 120.
THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION TO 95 KTS BY TAU 24.
AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND DRY AIR INFLOW ARE EXPECTED TO START A
WEAKENING TREND THAT WILL ACCELERATE AND CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION
BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 96. BY TAU 120, GALWEM AND UKMET SHOW A TURN SLIGHT EQUATORWARD
WHILE THE OTHER MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT POLEWARD TURN. THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST IS HEDGED JUST SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS TRACK WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-03-16 21:02

WTXS51 PGTW 162100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 190316201538
2019031618 19S SAVANNAH 012 01 245 07 SATL 010
T000 156S 0923E 085 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
025 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD
080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 160S 0912E 095 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD
080 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 165S 0903E 100 R064 010 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
025 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD
090 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 168S 0893E 095 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD
090 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 172S 0884E 095 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD
090 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 177S 0867E 065 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
010 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD
080 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 183S 0850E 045 R034 050 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 010 NW QD
T120 190S 0835E 035 R034 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 15.6S 92.3E

>

2019-03-16 21:02

WTXS31 PGTW 162100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 15.6S 92.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 92.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 16.0S 91.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-03-16 20:56

WTXS51 PGTW 162100
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 190316201538
2019031618 19S SAVANNAH 012 01 245 07 SATL 010
T000 156S 0923E 085 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 160S 0912E 095 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 165S 0903E 100 R064 010 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 168S 0893E 095 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 172S 0884E 095 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 177S 0867E 065 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 183S 0850E 045 R034 050 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 010 NW QD
T120 190S 0835E 035 R034 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 15.6S 92.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 92.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 16.0S 91.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 16.5S 90.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 16.8S 89.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 17.2S 88.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 17.7S 86.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 18.3S 85.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 19.0S 83.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 92.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 341 NM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.//
1919031018 113S1077E 25
1919031100 109S1066E 25
1919031106 106S1053E 20
1919031112 104S1041E 20
1919031118 100S1025E 20
1919031200 100S1017E 20
1919031206 91S1002E 20
1919031212 89S 991E 20
1919031218 84S 977E 20
1919031300 87S 977E 20
1919031306 97S 975E 20
1919031312 104S 968E 25
1919031318 110S 966E 30
1919031400 115S 963E 35
1919031406 121S 960E 40
1919031412 126S 958E 40
1919031418 131S 954E 45
1919031500 135S 951E 45
1919031506 139S 949E 50
1919031506 139S 949E 50
1919031512 144S 948E 55
1919031512 144S 948E 55
1919031518 147S 943E 60
1919031518 147S 943E 60
1919031600 148S 938E 60
1919031600 148S 938E 60
1919031606 151S 934E 65
1919031606 151S 934E 65
1919031606 151S 934E 65
1919031612 153S 930E 75
1919031612 153S 930E 75
1919031612 153S 930E 75
1919031618 156S 923E 85
1919031618 156S 923E 85
1919031618 156S 923E 85
NNNN

>

2019-03-16 20:54

WTXS31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 15.6S 92.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 92.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 16.0S 91.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 16.5S 90.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 16.8S 89.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 17.2S 88.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 17.7S 86.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 18.3S 85.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 19.0S 83.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 92.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 341 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
161800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND
172100Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-03-16 14:14

WTXS51 PGTW 161500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 190316124427
2019031612 19S SAVANNAH 011 01 245 04 SATL 020
T000 153S 0930E 065 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 080 SE QD
070 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 159S 0918E 075 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD
080 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 163S 0908E 085 R064 010 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
025 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD
090 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 166S 0899E 090 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD
090 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 169S 0890E 095 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD
090 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 174S 0873E 070 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
010 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD
080 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 180S 0856E 050 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
050 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 010 NW QD
T120 184S 0837E 040 R034 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 15.3S 93.0E

>

2019-03-16 14:07

WTXS51 PGTW 161500
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 190316124427
2019031612 19S SAVANNAH 011 01 245 04 SATL 020
T000 153S 0930E 065 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 159S 0918E 075 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 163S 0908E 085 R064 010 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 166S 0899E 090 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 169S 0890E 095 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 174S 0873E 070 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 180S 0856E 050 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 010 NW QD
T120 184S 0837E 040 R034 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 15.3S 93.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 93.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 15.9S 91.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 16.3S 90.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 16.6S 89.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 16.9S 89.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 17.4S 87.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 18.0S 85.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 18.4S 83.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 92.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 296 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z.
//
1919031018 113S1077E 25
1919031100 109S1066E 25
1919031106 106S1053E 20
1919031112 104S1041E 20
1919031118 100S1025E 20
1919031200 100S1017E 20
1919031206 91S1002E 20
1919031212 89S 991E 20
1919031218 84S 977E 20
1919031300 87S 977E 20
1919031306 97S 975E 20
1919031312 104S 968E 25
1919031318 110S 966E 30
1919031400 115S 963E 35
1919031406 121S 960E 40
1919031412 126S 958E 40
1919031418 131S 954E 45
1919031500 135S 951E 45
1919031506 139S 949E 50
1919031506 139S 949E 50
1919031512 144S 948E 55
1919031512 144S 948E 55
1919031518 147S 943E 60
1919031518 147S 943E 60
1919031600 148S 938E 60
1919031600 148S 938E 60
1919031606 151S 934E 60
1919031606 151S 934E 60
1919031612 153S 930E 65
1919031612 153S 930E 65
1919031612 153S 930E 65
NNNN

>

2019-03-16 14:06

WTXS51 PGTW 160300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 190316015732
2019031600 19S SAVANNAH 009 01 245 05 SATL 020
T000 149S 0938E 060 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R034
040 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 154S 0929E 065 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
015 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 085 SE QD
075 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 159S 0918E 075 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 100 SE QD
080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 163S 0908E 080 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 100 SE QD
090 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 166S 0900E 075 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD
090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 171S 0884E 065 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 100 SE QD
070 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 176S 0869E 050 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
050 NE QD 110 SE QD 055 SW QD 030 NW QD
T120 181S 0853E 040 R034 050 NE QD 130 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 14.9S 93.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS

>

2019-03-16 14:06

WTXS31 PGTW 161500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 15.3S 93.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 93.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 15.9S 91.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-03-16 14:06

WTXS31 PGTW 160300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 14.9S 93.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 93.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 15.4S 92.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-03-16 14:03

WTXS51 PGTW 160300
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 190316015732
2019031600 19S SAVANNAH 009 01 245 05 SATL 020
T000 149S 0938E 060 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 154S 0929E 065 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 015 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 085 SE QD 075 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 159S 0918E 075 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 163S 0908E 080 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 166S 0900E 075 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 171S 0884E 065 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 176S 0869E 050 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 110 SE QD 055 SW QD 030 NW QD
T120 181S 0853E 040 R034 050 NE QD 130 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 14.9S 93.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 93.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 15.4S 92.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 15.9S 91.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 16.3S 90.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 16.6S 90.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 17.1S 88.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.6S 86.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 18.1S 85.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 93.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 247 NM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z.//
1919031018 113S1077E 25
1919031100 109S1066E 25
1919031106 106S1053E 20
1919031112 104S1041E 20
1919031118 100S1025E 20
1919031200 100S1017E 20
1919031206 91S1002E 20
1919031212 89S 991E 20
1919031218 84S 977E 20
1919031300 87S 977E 20
1919031306 97S 975E 20
1919031312 104S 968E 25
1919031318 110S 966E 30
1919031400 115S 963E 35
1919031406 121S 960E 40
1919031412 126S 958E 40
1919031418 131S 954E 45
1919031500 135S 951E 45
1919031506 139S 949E 50
1919031506 139S 949E 50
1919031512 144S 948E 55
1919031512 144S 948E 55
1919031518 147S 943E 60
1919031518 147S 943E 60
1919031600 149S 938E 60
1919031600 149S 938E 60
NNNN

>

2019-03-16 14:02

WTXS31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 15.3S 93.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 93.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 15.9S 91.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 16.3S 90.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 16.6S 89.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 16.9S 89.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 17.4S 87.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 18.0S 85.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 18.4S 83.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 92.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 296 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY WITH
DEEPENED RAIN BANDS SPIRALING INTO A 20NM CLOUD-FILLED EYE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE
FEATURE, ADJUSTED FOR A NORTHWARD TILT BY LINING UP WITH A
WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 180846Z SSMI IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY
DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE INTENSIFICATION. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
MARGINAL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT
27-28C ARE CONDUCIVE, RESULTING IN AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO STEER TC
19S SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. THE OVERALL
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL FUEL GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION
TO 95 KTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COLD DRY AIR
INTRUSION WILL MOSTLY CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN TO 40 KTS BY TAU
120. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GRADUAL SPREADING TO
160 NM BY TAU 120, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z,
170900Z AND 171500Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-03-16 14:02

WTXS31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 14.9S 93.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 93.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 15.4S 92.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 15.9S 91.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 16.3S 90.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 16.6S 90.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 17.1S 88.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.6S 86.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 18.1S 85.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 93.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 247 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN OBLONG 70-110 NM CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE USING
A 160006Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION
SURROUNDING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 60 KTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM T3.5-4.5 (55-77 KTS), HEDGED CLOSER TO 55 KTS BASED ON THE EIR
IMAGERY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
BEING HAMPERED BY MARGINAL OUTFLOW. FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST, TC 19S WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO
THE EAST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THE SOUTHWEST, CAUSING THE
SYSTEM TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ALLOW INTENSIFICATION TO 80 KTS BY TAU
48. AFTER TAU 48, INCREASING VWS WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN TO
40 KTS BY TAU 120. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH DEPICTS A
WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE STR AND SOUTHWARD TRACK BEYOND TAU 72, DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS
THE CONSENSUS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 160000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z
AND 170300Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-03-16 09:02

WTXS51 PGTW 160900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 190316072754
2019031606 19S SAVANNAH 010 01 245 05 SATL 030
T000 150S 0933E 060 R050 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R034
060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 155S 0922E 070 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD
080 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 160S 0911E 080 R064 010 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
025 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD
090 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 164S 0902E 085 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD
090 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 167S 0894E 080 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD
090 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 172S 0878E 065 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
010 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD
080 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 177S 0862E 050 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
050 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 010 NW QD
T120 182S 0841E 040 R034 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 15.0S 93.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS

>

2019-03-16 08:55

WTXS31 PGTW 160900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 15.0S 93.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 93.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 15.5S 92.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-03-16 08:53

WTXS51 PGTW 160900
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 190316072754
2019031606 19S SAVANNAH 010 01 245 05 SATL 030
T000 150S 0933E 060 R050 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 155S 0922E 070 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 160S 0911E 080 R064 010 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 164S 0902E 085 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 167S 0894E 080 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 172S 0878E 065 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 177S 0862E 050 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 010 NW QD
T120 182S 0841E 040 R034 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 15.0S 93.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 93.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 15.5S 92.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 16.0S 91.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 16.4S 90.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 16.7S 89.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 17.2S 87.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 17.7S 86.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 18.2S 84.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 15.1S 93.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 269 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z.
//
1919031018 113S1077E 25
1919031100 109S1066E 25
1919031106 106S1053E 20
1919031112 104S1041E 20
1919031118 100S1025E 20
1919031200 100S1017E 20
1919031206 91S1002E 20
1919031212 89S 991E 20
1919031218 84S 977E 20
1919031300 87S 977E 20
1919031306 97S 975E 20
1919031312 104S 968E 25
1919031318 110S 966E 30
1919031400 115S 963E 35
1919031406 121S 960E 40
1919031412 126S 958E 40
1919031418 131S 954E 45
1919031500 135S 951E 45
1919031506 139S 949E 50
1919031506 139S 949E 50
1919031512 144S 948E 55
1919031512 144S 948E 55
1919031518 147S 943E 60
1919031518 147S 943E 60
1919031600 148S 938E 60
1919031600 148S 938E 60
1919031606 150S 933E 60
1919031606 150S 933E 60
NNNN

>

2019-03-16 08:50

WTXS31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 15.0S 93.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 93.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 15.5S 92.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 16.0S 91.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 16.4S 90.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 16.7S 89.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 17.2S 87.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 17.7S 86.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 18.2S 84.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 15.1S 93.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 269 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE
AND A 20NM CLOUD-FILLED FORMATIVE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE FORMATIVE EYE, ADJUSTED FOR A
NORTHWARD TILT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5/55KTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
FORMATIVE EYE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY MARGINAL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, ALONG-TRACK SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT 27-28C ARE CONDUCIVE. A WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST HAS ASSUMED STEERING AND WILL DRIVE TC 19S
SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. THE OVERALL
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL FUEL GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION
TO 85 KTS BY TAU 36. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS WILL MOSTLY CAUSE THE
CYCLONE TO WEAKEN TO 40 KTS BY TAU 120. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM
OFFERING A SOUTHWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 72, NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS
LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
160600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND
170900Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-03-15 20:56

WTXS51 PGTW 152100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 190315200521
2019031518 19S SAVANNAH 008 01 240 06 SATL XTRP 030
T000 147S 0943E 055 R050 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R034
030 NE QD 065 SE QD 070 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 153S 0935E 060 R050 000 NE QD 015 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R034
040 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 158S 0925E 065 R064 005 NE QD 005 SE QD 005 SW QD 005 NW QD R050
000 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 100 SE QD
080 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 162S 0914E 070 R064 005 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 005 NW QD R050
000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 100 SE QD
080 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 165S 0906E 075 R064 005 NE QD 005 SE QD 010 SW QD 005 NW QD R050
010 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 100 SE QD
080 SW QD 020 NW QD
T072 170S 0891E 065 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD
080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 175S 0877E 050 R050 010 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
070 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD
T120 180S 0863E 040 R034 070 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 030 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 14.7S 94.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF

>

2019-03-15 20:56

WTXS31 PGTW 152100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 14.7S 94.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 94.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.3S 93.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-03-15 20:52

WTXS51 PGTW 152100
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 190315200521
2019031518 19S SAVANNAH 008 01 240 06 SATL XTRP 030
T000 147S 0943E 055 R050 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 065 SE QD 070 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 153S 0935E 060 R050 000 NE QD 015 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 158S 0925E 065 R064 005 NE QD 005 SE QD 005 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 162S 0914E 070 R064 005 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 165S 0906E 075 R064 005 NE QD 005 SE QD 010 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 020 NW QD
T072 170S 0891E 065 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 175S 0877E 050 R050 010 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD
T120 180S 0863E 040 R034 070 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 030 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 14.7S 94.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 94.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.3S 93.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 15.8S 92.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 16.2S 91.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 16.5S 90.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 17.0S 89.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 17.5S 87.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 18.0S 86.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 94.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 218 NM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z.//
1919031018 113S1077E 25
1919031100 109S1066E 25
1919031106 106S1053E 20
1919031112 104S1041E 20
1919031118 100S1025E 20
1919031200 100S1017E 20
1919031206 91S1002E 20
1919031212 89S 991E 20
1919031218 84S 977E 20
1919031300 87S 977E 20
1919031306 97S 975E 20
1919031312 104S 968E 25
1919031318 110S 966E 30
1919031400 115S 963E 35
1919031406 121S 960E 40
1919031412 126S 958E 40
1919031418 131S 954E 45
1919031500 135S 951E 45
1919031506 139S 949E 50
1919031506 139S 949E 50
1919031512 144S 948E 55
1919031512 144S 948E 55
1919031518 147S 943E 55
1919031518 147S 943E 55
NNNN

>

2019-03-15 20:51

WTXS31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 14.7S 94.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 94.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.3S 93.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 15.8S 92.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 16.2S 91.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 16.5S 90.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 17.0S 89.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 17.5S 87.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 18.0S 86.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 94.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 218 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 70-100 NM CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.
A 161530 MHS 89 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH THE
ACCOMPANYING ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A TIGHT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH SMALL 34 AND 50 KT WIND FIELDS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON A COMBINATION OF THE EIR AND BY EXTRAPOLATING FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH LOW
(10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), FAIR EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, AND WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. FOR THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 19S WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTHWEST, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD.
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TC 19S TO INTENSITY TO
75 KTS BY TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, INCREASING VWS WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM
TO WEAKEN TO 40 KTS BY TAU 120. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS
CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON HIGH SPREAD IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-03-15 15:00

WTXS51 PGTW 151500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 190315134148
2019031512 19S SAVANNAH 007 02 190 05 SATL 030
T000 144S 0948E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
050 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 150S 0942E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
040 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 156S 0932E 065 R064 005 NE QD 005 SE QD 005 SW QD 005 NW QD R050
010 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 090 SE QD
080 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 160S 0921E 075 R064 005 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 005 NW QD R050
010 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 090 SE QD
080 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 164S 0910E 080 R064 005 NE QD 005 SE QD 010 SW QD 005 NW QD R050
010 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 090 SE QD
080 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 170S 0895E 080 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 090 SE QD
080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 176S 0882E 070 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
010 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 090 SE QD
070 SW QD 030 NW QD
T120 181S 0868E 050 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
050 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 030 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 14.4S 94.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM

>

2019-03-15 15:00

WTXS31 PGTW 151500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 14.4S 94.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 94.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 15.0S 94.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-03-15 14:52

WTXS51 PGTW 151500
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 190315134148
2019031512 19S SAVANNAH 007 02 190 05 SATL 030
T000 144S 0948E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 150S 0942E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 156S 0932E 065 R064 005 NE QD 005 SE QD 005 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 160S 0921E 075 R064 005 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 164S 0910E 080 R064 005 NE QD 005 SE QD 010 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 170S 0895E 080 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 176S 0882E 070 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD
T120 181S 0868E 050 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 030 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 14.4S 94.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 94.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 15.0S 94.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 15.6S 93.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 16.0S 92.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 16.4S 91.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 17.0S 89.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 17.6S 88.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 18.1S 86.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 94.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.
1919031018 113S1077E 25
1919031100 109S1066E 25
1919031106 106S1053E 20
1919031112 104S1041E 20
1919031118 100S1025E 20
1919031200 100S1017E 20
1919031206 91S1002E 20
1919031212 89S 991E 20
1919031218 84S 977E 20
1919031300 87S 977E 20
1919031306 97S 975E 20
1919031312 104S 968E 25
1919031318 110S 966E 30
1919031400 115S 963E 35
1919031406 121S 960E 40
1919031412 126S 958E 40
1919031418 131S 954E 45
1919031500 135S 951E 45
1919031506 139S 949E 50
1919031506 139S 949E 50
1919031512 144S 948E 55
1919031512 144S 948E 55
NNNN

>

2019-03-15 14:46

WTXS31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 14.4S 94.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 94.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 15.0S 94.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 15.6S 93.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 16.0S 92.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 16.4S 91.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 17.0S 89.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 17.6S 88.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 18.1S 86.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 94.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE
PERSISTING OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 151255Z SSMIS
91GHZ IMAGE INDICATES TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON
THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM T3.0 (45 KNOTS) TO T4.0 (65 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS TC 19S IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND HAS MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT,
NEAR 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 19S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE
POSITIONED BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW TC 19S TO STEADILY INCREASE
IN INTENSITY, REACHING 80 KNOTS BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 48 MODEL
GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH A SPREAD OF 300 NM BY TAU 120. THE
JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, SLIGHTLY
FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLUTION. DUE TO THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD BY TAU
120 THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S
(IDAI) FINAL WARNING (WTXS32 PGTW).//
NNNN

>

2019-03-15 09:18

WTXS51 PGTW 150900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 190315081121
2019031506 19S SAVANNAH 006 02 225 04 SATL 035
T000 138S 0948E 045 R034 070 NE QD 085 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 145S 0942E 050 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
065 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 150S 0934E 055 R050 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
050 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 155S 0924E 060 R050 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
060 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 159S 0914E 065 R064 005 NE QD 005 SE QD 010 SW QD 005 NW QD R050
010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 100 SE QD
090 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 165S 0894E 080 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD
080 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 171S 0879E 075 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
015 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD
090 SW QD 030 NW QD
T120 179S 0861E 050 R050 010 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
080 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 13.8S 94.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

>

2019-03-15 09:18

WTXS31 PGTW 150900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 13.8S 94.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S 94.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 14.5S 94.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.0S 93.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

2019-03-15 08:50

WTXS31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 13.8S 94.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S 94.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 14.5S 94.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.0S 93.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 15.5S 92.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 15.9S 91.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 16.5S 89.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 17.1S 87.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 17.9S 86.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 94.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1375 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING TIGHTLY AROUND THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 150600Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE ALONG WITH A 150259Z METOP-B AMBIGUITY IMAGE WHICH
SHOWS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS
IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW AND HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE 150259Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE
WHICH SHOWS 40 KNOTS AND BELOW A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TC 19S IS
EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND HAS
MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 28 DEGREES
CELSIUS. TC 19S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE POSITIONED
BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST AND A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST. FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW TC 19S TO STEADILY INCREASE IN
INTENSITY, REACHING 80 KNOTS BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 48 MODEL
GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH A SPREAD OF 610 NM BY TAU 120. THE
JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, SLIGHTLY
FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLUTION. DUE TO THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD BY TAU 120
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S
(IDAI) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.//
NNNN

>

2019-03-15 08:45

WTXS51 PGTW 150900
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 190315081121
2019031506 19S SAVANNAH 006 02 225 04 SATL 035
T000 138S 0948E 045 R034 070 NE QD 085 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 145S 0942E 050 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 150S 0934E 055 R050 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 155S 0924E 060 R050 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 159S 0914E 065 R064 005 NE QD 005 SE QD 010 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 165S 0894E 080 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 171S 0879E 075 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 015 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 030 NW QD
T120 179S 0861E 050 R050 010 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 13.8S 94.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S 94.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 14.5S 94.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.0S 93.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 15.5S 92.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 15.9S 91.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 16.5S 89.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 17.1S 87.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 17.9S 86.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 94.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1375 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z.
FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.//
1919031018 113S1077E 25
1919031100 109S1066E 25
1919031106 106S1053E 20
1919031112 104S1041E 20
1919031118 100S1025E 20
1919031200 100S1017E 20
1919031206 91S1002E 20
1919031212 89S 991E 20
1919031218 84S 977E 20
1919031300 87S 977E 20
1919031306 97S 975E 20
1919031312 104S 968E 25
1919031318 110S 966E 30
1919031400 115S 963E 35
1919031406 121S 960E 40
1919031412 128S 958E 40
1919031418 131S 954E 45
1919031500 135S 951E 45
1919031506 138S 948E 45
NNNN

>

2019-03-15 03:24

WTXS51 PGTW 150300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 190315020003
2019031500 19S SAVANNAH 005 02 215 05 SATL 050
T000 136S 0952E 045 R034 065 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 144S 0947E 055 R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
050 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 151S 0939E 060 R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
060 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 045 NW QD
T036 156S 0929E 060 R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
060 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 160S 0917E 065 R064 005 NE QD 005 SE QD 010 SW QD 005 NW QD R050
010 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 120 SE QD
090 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 169S 0896E 070 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 005 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD
090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 176S 0876E 070 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD
090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 181S 0859E 060 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
080 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 13.6S 95.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

>

2019-03-15 03:24

WTXS31 PGTW 150300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 13.6S 95.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 95.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 14.4S 94.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 15.1S 93.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

2019-03-15 03:19

WTXS51 PGTW 150300
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 190315020003
2019031500 19S SAVANNAH 005 02 215 05 SATL 050
T000 136S 0952E 045 R034 065 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 144S 0947E 055 R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 151S 0939E 060 R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 045 NW QD
T036 156S 0929E 060 R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 160S 0917E 065 R064 005 NE QD 005 SE QD 010 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 169S 0896E 070 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 176S 0876E 070 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 181S 0859E 060 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 13.6S 95.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 95.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 14.4S 94.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 15.1S 93.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 15.6S 92.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 16.0S 91.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 16.9S 89.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 17.6S 87.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 18.1S 85.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 95.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1394 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1919031018 113S1077E 25
1919031100 109S1066E 25
1919031106 106S1053E 20
1919031112 104S1041E 20
1919031118 100S1025E 20
1919031200 100S1017E 20
1919031206 91S1002E 20
1919031212 89S 991E 20
1919031218 84S 977E 20
1919031300 87S 977E 20
1919031306 97S 975E 20
1919031312 104S 968E 25
1919031318 110S 966E 30
1919031400 115S 963E 35
1919031406 121S 960E 40
1919031412 128S 958E 40
1919031418 132S 955E 45
1919031500 136S 952E 45
NNNN

>

2019-03-15 03:17

WTXS31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 13.6S 95.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 95.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 14.4S 94.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 15.1S 93.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 15.6S 92.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 16.0S 91.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 16.9S 89.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 17.6S 87.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 18.1S 85.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 95.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1394 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS WELL-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY CENTRAL CONVECTION.
A 150019Z METOP-B 91GHZ IMAGE INDICATES CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING AND GIVES FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW, AND BELOW THE APRF AND KNES
ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS), ALONG WITH THE ADT ESTIMATE OF 53
KNOTS FROM 150140Z. TC 19S IS LOCATED WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING
ENVIRONMENT WITH A WEAK NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST AND
A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST. THROUGH TAU 24,
TC 19S WILL TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NER AND THEN TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
WITH CONDUCIVE SST VALUES (27-28C), MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36. UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 36. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
HEDGED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF CONSENSUS. THE MAJORITY OF MODELS DEPICT A
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST THAT WILL LEAD TO A BREAK IN
THE RIDGING AND RE-ORIENTATION OF THE STR TO THE WEST, BUT DO NOT
PREDICT SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK MOTION IN RESPONSE. DIFFERENCES IN TRACK
SPEED AND DIRECTION GENERATE A LARGE SPREAD OF 410NM BY TAU 120.
THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. DUE
TO THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, TC 19S SHOULD INTENSIFY
STEADILY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD TO A PEAK OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 72
AND THEN MAINTAIN UNTIL INCREASING SHEAR AND LOW SST BEGIN TO ERODE
TC 19S AFTER TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS
13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.//
NNNN

>

2019-03-14 21:36

WTXS31 PGTW 142100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 13.2S 95.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S 95.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 14.2S 95.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 14.9S 94.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

2019-03-14 21:31

WTXS31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 13.2S 95.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S 95.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 14.2S 95.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 14.9S 94.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.6S 93.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 15.9S 92.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 16.5S 91.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 17.2S 89.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 18.1S 86.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 13.5S 95.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1406 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER A LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION OBSCURED BY DENSE CLOUD OVERCAST. A 141522Z METOP-
B 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATES CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING AND GIVES
FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45
KTS IS HEDGED ON THE HIGH SIDE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW TO T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM
APRF. AN ADT ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS FROM 142010Z AND A SATCON ESTIMATE
OF 48 KNOTS FROM 141837Z FURTHER REINFORCE THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ASSESSMENT. TC 19S IS LOCATED WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING
ENVIRONMENT WITH A WEAK NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST AND
A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST. THROUGH TAU 36,
TC 19S WILL TRACK SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NER. THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE WITH CONDUCIVE SST VALUES (27-28C), LOW (5-10 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36. UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 36 AS ECMWF SLOWS AND DEVIATES
SOUTHWESTWARD, WHEREAS THE REMAINING MODELS TRACK DIRECTLY WEST
ACROSS THE NOTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE MORE SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK OF ECMWF IS RESPONDING TO A TROUGH THAT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND WEAKENS THE STR TO ITS NORTH, ALLOWING TC 19S TO TRACK MORE
SOUTHWESTWARD THAN THE OTHER MODELS, WHICH DEPICT THE BREAK IN THE
RIDGING, BUT DO NOT PREDICT SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK IS HEDGED BETWEEN THE CONSENSUS AND ECMWF. DIFFERENCES IN
TRACK SPEED AND DIRECTION GENERATE A LARGE SPREAD OF 410NM BY TAU
120. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
DUE TO THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, TC 19S SHOULD INTENSIFY
STEADILY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD TO A PEAK OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 48
AND THEN MAINTAIN UNTIL INCREASING SHEAR AND LOW SSTS AND OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT BEGIN TO ERODE TC 19S AFTER TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 13 FEET. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
141800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND
152100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-03-14 21:25

WTXS51 PGTW 142100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 190314195800
2019031418 19S SAVANNAH 004 02 215 05 SATL 045
T000 132S 0955E 045 R034 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 142S 0951E 050 R050 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
040 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 149S 0945E 055 R050 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
030 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 156S 0935E 060 R050 000 NE QD 015 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
020 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 159S 0922E 065 R050 000 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
020 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 020 NW QD
T072 165S 0910E 065 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
030 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 172S 0894E 065 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
015 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD
060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 181S 0867E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034
070 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 030 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 13.2S 95.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2019-03-14 21:21

WTXS51 PGTW 142100
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 190314195800
2019031418 19S SAVANNAH 004 02 215 05 SATL 045
T000 132S 0955E 045 R034 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 142S 0951E 050 R050 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 149S 0945E 055 R050 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 156S 0935E 060 R050 000 NE QD 015 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 020 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 159S 0922E 065 R050 000 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 020 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 020 NW QD
T072 165S 0910E 065 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 172S 0894E 065 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 015 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 181S 0867E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 030 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 13.2S 95.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S 95.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 14.2S 95.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 14.9S 94.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.6S 93.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 15.9S 92.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 16.5S 91.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 17.2S 89.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 18.1S 86.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 13.5S 95.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1193 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND 152100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1919031018 113S1077E 25
1919031100 109S1066E 25
1919031106 106S1053E 20
1919031112 104S1041E 20
1919031118 100S1025E 20
1919031200 100S1017E 20
1919031206 91S1002E 20
1919031212 89S 991E 20
1919031218 84S 977E 20
1919031300 87S 977E 20
1919031306 97S 975E 20
1919031312 104S 968E 25
1919031318 110S 966E 30
1919031400 115S 963E 35
1919031406 121S 960E 40
1919031412 128S 958E 40
1919031418 132S 955E 45
NNNN

>

2019-03-14 20:24

WTXS31 PGTW 141500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 12.8S 95.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S 95.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 13.9S 95.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 14.8S 95.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-03-14 20:09

WTXS31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 12.8S 95.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S 95.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 13.9S 95.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 14.8S 95.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 15.5S 94.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 15.9S 93.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 16.6S 91.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 17.1S 90.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 17.3S 88.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 95.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 141135Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE INDICATES CURVED
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING, HOWEVER, THE 37GHZ IMAGE SUGGESTS THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS POSITIONED ON THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE
CORE CONVECTION. OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON AN
AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 (35 KNOTS)
TO T3.0 (45 KNOTS). AS TC 19S TRACKS SLOWLY AWAY FROM COCOS ISLAND
(YPCC), SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW BACKING WINDS OF 350/15 KNOTS (10-
MINUTE AVERAGE SUSTAINED) GUSTING AS HIGH AS 29 KNOTS. TC 19S IS
LOCATED WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A WEAK NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST AND A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST. THROUGH TAU 24, TC 19S WILL TRACK SLOWLY
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER. AFTER
TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS
THE STR BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE. THE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A SPREAD OF
205NM AT TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, UNCERTAINTY INCREASES LARGELY DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED, WITH A SPREAD OF 410NM AT
TAU 120. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. DUE TO THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, TC 19S SHOULD
INTENSIFY STEADILY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD TO A PEAK OF 65 KNOTS
BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-03-14 14:52

WTXS51 PGTW 141500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 190314134306
2019031412 19S SAVANNAH 003 02 195 07 SATL 045
T000 128S 0958E 040 R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 139S 0956E 045 R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 148S 0953E 045 R034 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 155S 0945E 050 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R034
060 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 159S 0934E 055 R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R034
050 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD
T072 166S 0916E 060 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R034
050 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD
T096 171S 0901E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD
070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 173S 0887E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD
070 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 12.8S 95.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2019-03-14 14:46

WTXS51 PGTW 141500
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 190314134306
2019031412 19S SAVANNAH 003 02 195 07 SATL 045
T000 128S 0958E 040 R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 139S 0956E 045 R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 148S 0953E 045 R034 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 155S 0945E 050 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 159S 0934E 055 R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD
T072 166S 0916E 060 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD
T096 171S 0901E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 173S 0887E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 12.8S 95.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S 95.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 13.9S 95.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 14.8S 95.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 15.5S 94.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 15.9S 93.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 16.6S 91.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 17.1S 90.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 17.3S 88.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 95.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 10085 NM
OF KEY WEST, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1919031018 113S1077E 25
1919031100 109S1066E 25
1919031106 106S1053E 20
1919031112 104S1041E 20
1919031118 100S1025E 20
1919031200 100S1017E 20
1919031206 91S1002E 20
1919031212 89S 991E 20
1919031218 84S 977E 20
1919031300 87S 977E 20
1919031306 97S 975E 20
1919031312 104S 968E 25
1919031318 110S 966E 30
1919031400 115S 963E 35
1919031406 121S 960E 40
1919031412 128S 958E 40
NNNN

>

2019-03-14 09:52

WTXS51 PGTW 140900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 190314082136
2019031406 19S SAVANNAH 002 02 210 06 SATL 060
T000 120S 0960E 040 R034 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 130S 0957E 045 R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 138S 0954E 045 R034 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 146S 0949E 050 R050 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
040 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 152S 0942E 055 R050 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
050 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 157S 0924E 060 R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
050 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 162S 0907E 065 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD
090 SW QD 040 NW QD
T120 165S 0890E 065 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD
110 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 12.0S 96.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2019-03-14 09:39

WTXS51 PGTW 140900
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 190314082136
2019031406 19S SAVANNAH 002 02 210 06 SATL 060
T000 120S 0960E 040 R034 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 130S 0957E 045 R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 138S 0954E 045 R034 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 146S 0949E 050 R050 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 152S 0942E 055 R050 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 157S 0924E 060 R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 162S 0907E 065 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 040 NW QD
T120 165S 0890E 065 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 12.0S 96.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S 96.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 13.0S 95.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 13.8S 95.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 14.6S 94.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.2S 94.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 15.7S 92.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 16.2S 90.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 16.5S 89.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 95.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 10040 NM
OF KEY WEST, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1919031018 113S1077E 25
1919031100 109S1066E 25
1919031106 106S1053E 20
1919031112 104S1041E 20
1919031118 100S1025E 20
1919031200 100S1017E 20
1919031206 91S1002E 20
1919031212 89S 991E 20
1919031218 84S 977E 20
1919031300 87S 977E 20
1919031306 97S 975E 20
1919031312 104S 968E 25
1919031318 110S 966E 30
1919031400 115S 963E 35
1919031406 120S 960E 40
NNNN

>

2019-03-14 03:37

WTXS31 PGTW 140300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131721ZMAR2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 11.7S 95.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S 95.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 13.0S 95.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 13.9S 95.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2019-03-14 03:32

WTXS31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131721ZMAR2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 11.7S 95.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S 95.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 13.0S 95.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 13.9S 95.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 14.7S 95.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 15.2S 94.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 15.9S 92.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 16.4S 90.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 16.4S 89.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 12.0S 95.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1412 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH WELL-DEVELOPED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED
BY BUILDING CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON THE COVERED LLCC SEEN IN THE MSI LOOP AND A
140031Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET
BETWEEN DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30KTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW AS WELL
AS T3.0 (45KTS) FROM APRF. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
WITH WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, HIGH (20-25KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. TC 19S WILL
TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO ITS SOUTHWEST. AS THE RIDGE RE-
ORIENTS AFTER TAU 36, TC 19S WILL TRACK DUE WESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
WILL ALLOW ONLY LIMITED INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH
INTENSITY STABILIZING AT 55 KTS UNTIL TAU 96, WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 36 THEN SPREAD SIGNIFICANTLY AFTERWARDS IN
DEPICTING A WESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TURN. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO DIFFER
IN HOW THEY INTENSIFY TC 19S, RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z
IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 131730).//
NNNN

>

2019-03-14 02:49

WTXS51 PGTW 140300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 190314023231
2019031400 19S SAVANNAH 001 02 225 08 SATL 050
T000 117S 0959E 035 R034 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 130S 0955E 045 R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 139S 0953E 055 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
050 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 147S 0950E 055 R050 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
040 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 152S 0944E 055 R050 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
040 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 159S 0926E 055 R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
050 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 164S 0902E 065 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD
090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 164S 0893E 065 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD
110 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 11.7S 95.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2019-03-14 02:43

WTXS51 PGTW 140300
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 190314023231
2019031400 19S SAVANNAH 001 02 225 08 SATL 050
T000 117S 0959E 035 R034 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 130S 0955E 045 R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 139S 0953E 055 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 147S 0950E 055 R050 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 152S 0944E 055 R050 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 159S 0926E 055 R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 164S 0902E 065 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 164S 0893E 065 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 11.7S 95.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S 95.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 13.0S 95.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 13.9S 95.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 14.7S 95.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 15.2S 94.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 15.9S 92.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 16.4S 90.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 16.4S 89.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 12.0S 95.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1412 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1919031018 113S1077E 25
1919031100 109S1066E 25
1919031106 106S1053E 20
1919031112 104S1041E 20
1919031118 100S1025E 20
1919031200 100S1017E 20
1919031206 91S1002E 20
1919031212 89S 991E 20
1919031218 84S 977E 20
1919031300 87S 977E 20
1919031306 97S 975E 20
1919031312 104S 968E 25
1919031318 111S 965E 30
1919031400 117S 959E 35
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