Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for DALILA-19
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.




Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 251600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (DALILA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 21.8N 120.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8N 120.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 22.3N 121.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 22.7N 123.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 23.0N 124.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
251600Z POSITION NEAR 22.0N 120.9W.
25JUL19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (DALILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
679 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z
IS 5 FEET.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 251556

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 25.07.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.9N 120.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.07.2019 0 21.9N 120.5W 1008 24
0000UTC 26.07.2019 12 22.3N 121.9W 1010 22
1200UTC 26.07.2019 24 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 14.2N 128.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.07.2019 84 14.2N 130.2W 1005 30
1200UTC 29.07.2019 96 15.0N 133.1W 1004 36
0000UTC 30.07.2019 108 16.3N 136.1W 1005 35
1200UTC 30.07.2019 120 17.1N 139.5W 1007 32
0000UTC 31.07.2019 132 18.1N 142.5W 1009 34
1200UTC 31.07.2019 144 18.8N 145.7W 1011 29

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 10.3N 116.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.07.2019 96 10.3N 116.3W 1006 27
0000UTC 30.07.2019 108 10.0N 119.8W 1001 33
1200UTC 30.07.2019 120 9.8N 123.2W 992 49
0000UTC 31.07.2019 132 9.8N 126.6W 986 62
1200UTC 31.07.2019 144 9.8N 130.3W 976 71

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 35.0N 69.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 31.07.2019 132 36.0N 69.3W 1014 20
1200UTC 31.07.2019 144 38.4N 68.5W 1014 21


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 251555

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 251555

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 25.07.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.9N 120.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 25.07.2019 21.9N 120.5W WEAK
00UTC 26.07.2019 22.3N 121.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.07.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 14.2N 128.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.07.2019 14.2N 130.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 29.07.2019 15.0N 133.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.07.2019 16.3N 136.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.07.2019 17.1N 139.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.07.2019 18.1N 142.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.07.2019 18.8N 145.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 10.3N 116.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.07.2019 10.3N 116.3W WEAK
00UTC 30.07.2019 10.0N 119.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.07.2019 9.8N 123.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 31.07.2019 9.8N 126.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 31.07.2019 9.8N 130.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 35.0N 69.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 31.07.2019 36.0N 69.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 31.07.2019 38.4N 68.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 251555

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 251431
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DALILA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019
800 AM PDT THU JUL 25 2019

...DALILA DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 120.8W
ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DALILA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 120.8 WEST. THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH
(11 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND
TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH (35 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED IN A DAY OR TWO.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB (29.80 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT
LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE, UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC, AND
ON THE WEB AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.PHP


..
FORECASTER AVILA/TAYLOR

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 251431
TCMEP5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019
1500 UTC THU JUL 25 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 120.8W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 120.8W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 120.5W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 22.3N 121.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 22.7N 123.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 23.0N 124.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 120.8W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

..
FORECASTER AVILA/TAYLOR

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 251432
TCDEP5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019
800 AM PDT THU JUL 25 2019

DALILA'S CIRCULATION IS BECOMING ELONGATED, AND THE REMAINING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST. EARLIER
SCATTEROMETER DATA REVEALED THAT WINDS WERE 20 TO 25 KNOTS, AND MOST
LIKELY THESE WINDS HAVE DECREASED SINCE THEN. ON THIS BASIS, IT IS
ESTIMATED THAT DALILA HAS DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW WITH 20-KT
WINDS.

NOW THAT THE SYSTEM IS SHALLOW, THE REMNANT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 TO 8 KT, STEERED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS. WHILE SOME INTERMITTENT PATCHES OF
CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN A
DAY OR SO OVER COOLER WATERS.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 21.9N 120.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 26/0000Z 22.3N 121.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 26/1200Z 22.7N 123.1W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 27/0000Z 23.0N 124.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER AVILA/TAYLOR

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 251000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (DALILA) WARNING NR 013 //
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (DALILA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 21.5N 120.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5N 120.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 22.0N 121.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 22.5N 122.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 22.8N 124.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 23.1N 125.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
251000Z POSITION NEAR 21.7N 120.6W.
25JUL19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (DALILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
692 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
250600Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251600Z, 252200Z, 260400Z AND
261000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 250835
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019
200 AM PDT THU JUL 25 2019

DALILA IS STILL TECHNICALLY A TROPICAL CYCLONE BASED ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CONVECTION WITHIN 70-75 NMI NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER, WHICH BARELY RESULTS IN A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF T1.5/25 KT. IN ADDITION, A 0539Z ASCAT-C OVERPASS INDICATED A FEW
25-KT VECTORS WERE PRESENT IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THEREFORE,
DALILA REMAINS A 25-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY. HAVING
SAID THAT, RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTION IS
BEGINNING TO SEPARATE AND MOVE AWAY FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DUE TO
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND THIS NEGATIVE TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE, RESULTING IN DALILA DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LATER TODAY WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER 24 DEG C
WATER. DISSIPATION OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED IN 48-72 HOURS.

DALILA IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OR 315/05 KT. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY A
WESTWARD MOTION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK, AND LIES CLOSE TO THE
SIMPLE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 21.6N 120.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 22.0N 121.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 26/0600Z 22.5N 122.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 26/1800Z 22.8N 124.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/0600Z 23.1N 125.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 250832
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019
200 AM PDT THU JUL 25 2019

...DALILA BARELY A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 120.4W
ABOUT 675 MI...1090 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 120.4 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H) AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON, AND THAT GENERAL
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 30 MPH (45 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND
DALILA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW LATER
TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB (29.80 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

..
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 250831
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019
0900 UTC THU JUL 25 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 120.4W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 120.4W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 120.2W

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 22.0N 121.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 22.5N 122.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 22.8N 124.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 23.1N 125.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 120.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z

..
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 250355

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 25.07.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.0N 120.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.07.2019 0 21.0N 120.0W 1008 20
1200UTC 25.07.2019 12 21.8N 120.9W 1009 21
0000UTC 26.07.2019 24 22.1N 122.2W 1010 21
1200UTC 26.07.2019 36 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 9.5N 104.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.07.2019 84 9.7N 106.9W 1006 28
0000UTC 29.07.2019 96 10.1N 110.8W 998 41
1200UTC 29.07.2019 108 10.1N 114.4W 990 51
0000UTC 30.07.2019 120 10.1N 117.8W 986 57
1200UTC 30.07.2019 132 9.9N 120.9W 978 65
0000UTC 31.07.2019 144 10.0N 124.1W 974 71

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 14.0N 124.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.07.2019 84 13.8N 125.9W 1006 27
0000UTC 29.07.2019 96 14.7N 129.2W 1002 41
1200UTC 29.07.2019 108 15.5N 132.0W 1002 37
0000UTC 30.07.2019 120 16.9N 135.0W 1004 38
1200UTC 30.07.2019 132 17.7N 138.3W 1006 36
0000UTC 31.07.2019 144 18.6N 141.3W 1008 33

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 29.2N 86.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 31.07.2019 144 29.2N 86.8W 1011 26


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 250355

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 250355

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 25.07.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.0N 120.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 25.07.2019 21.0N 120.0W WEAK
12UTC 25.07.2019 21.8N 120.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.07.2019 22.1N 122.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.07.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 9.5N 104.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 28.07.2019 9.7N 106.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 29.07.2019 10.1N 110.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 29.07.2019 10.1N 114.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.07.2019 10.1N 117.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.07.2019 9.9N 120.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 31.07.2019 10.0N 124.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 14.0N 124.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 28.07.2019 13.8N 125.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 29.07.2019 14.7N 129.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 29.07.2019 15.5N 132.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.07.2019 16.9N 135.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.07.2019 17.7N 138.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.07.2019 18.6N 141.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 29.2N 86.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 31.07.2019 29.2N 86.8W WEAK


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 250355

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 250400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (DALILA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 21.1N 119.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1N 119.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 21.7N 120.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 22.2N 121.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 22.6N 123.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 22.8N 124.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
250400Z POSITION NEAR 21.3N 119.9W.
25JUL19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (DALILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
709 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS
7 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251000Z, 251600Z, 252200Z AND 260400Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 250240 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019
800 PM PDT WED JUL 24 2019

DALILA IS HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. AFTER HAVING
LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY, A NEW AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT, WHICH IS OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATER. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CIRCULATION CONSISTS OF A SWIRL OF LOW-LEVEL
CLOUDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KT, IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE EARLIER ASCAT DATA AND THE 00Z DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB.
DALILA IS NOT EXPECTED TO HOLD ON MUCH LONGER AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE,
AS PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND STABLE AIR SHOULD CAUSE THE DEEP
CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE SOON. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES
TO SHOW GRADUAL WEAKENING, AND ULTIMATELY DISSIPATION IN 2 TO 3
DAYS.

THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS JOGGED TO THE NORTH, LIKELY DUE TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CONVECTION ON ITS NORTHEAST SIDE. SMOOTHING
THROUGH THIS RECENT JOG YIELDS A MOTION OF 325/6. AS THE
CONVECTION DIES, THE WEAK CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN THE WEST WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND
FLOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE, BASED ON THE MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL POSITION, AND LIES
NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 21.4N 119.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 21.7N 120.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 26/0000Z 22.2N 121.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 26/1200Z 22.6N 123.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 250239
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019
800 PM PDT WED JUL 24 2019

...DALILA HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 119.8W
ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 119.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ON THURSDAY, AND
THAT GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES IN A
FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH (45 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND
DALILA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW ON
THURSDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB (29.77 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

..
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 250239
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019
0300 UTC THU JUL 25 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 119.8W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 119.8W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 119.6W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 21.7N 120.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 22.2N 121.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 22.6N 123.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 22.8N 124.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 119.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

..
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 250240
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Dalila Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019
800 PM PDT Wed Jul 24 2019

Dalila is hanging on as a tropical depression. After having
little deep convection throughout the day, a new area of
thunderstorms has formed during the past several hours over the
northeastern quadrant, which is over slightly warmer water. The
remainder of the circulation consists of a swirl of low-level
clouds. The initial intensity is held at 25 kt, in agreement with
the earlier ASCAT data and the 00Z Dvorak classification from TAFB.
Dalila is not expected to hold on much longer as a tropical cyclone,
as progressively cooler waters and stable air should cause the deep
convection to dissipate soon. The NHC intensity forecast continues
to show gradual weakening, and ultimately dissipation in 2 to 3
days.

The center of the depression has jogged to the north, likely due to
the development of the convection on its northeast side. Smoothing
through this recent jog yields a motion of 325/6. As the
convection dies, the weak cyclone is expected to turn to the
west-northwest and then the west within the low-level trade wind
flow. The NHC track forecast is a little to the north of the
previous one, based on the more northward initial position, and lies
near the middle of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 21.4N 119.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 21.7N 120.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 26/0000Z 22.2N 121.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 26/1200Z 22.6N 123.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/0000Z 22.8N 124.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 242200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (DALILA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 20.6N 119.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 119.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 21.3N 120.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 21.9N 121.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 22.3N 123.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 22.8N 124.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
242200Z POSITION NEAR 20.8N 119.9W.
24JUL19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (DALILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
738 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS
7 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250400Z, 251000Z, 251600Z AND 252200Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 242032
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Dalila Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019
200 PM PDT Wed Jul 24 2019

Deep convection associated with Dalila has continued to wane since
the previous advisory, and the system has become a swirl of low- to
mid-level clouds with a small area of colder cloud tops over the
eastern semicircle. A recent ASCAT overpass showed maximum winds
of 25 kt, which is used as the initial intensity for this advisory.
Dalila will continue to move over progressively cooler waters, and
into a drier and more stable air mass during the next day or two.
This should result in additional weakening, and Dalila is expected
to degenerate into a remnant low tonight or on Thursday.

Dalila is still moving northwestward or 315/6 kt. As the cyclone
weakens and becomes an increasingly vertically shallow system, it is
forecast to turn west-northwestward within the low-level easterly
flow. The models are in good agreement on this scenario and the NHC
forecast track is close to the various consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 20.7N 119.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 21.3N 120.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 25/1800Z 21.9N 121.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 26/0600Z 22.3N 123.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 26/1800Z 22.8N 124.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 242031
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019
200 PM PDT WED JUL 24 2019

...DALILA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 119.8W
ABOUT 650 MI...1050 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 119.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H).
A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BY EARLY
THURSDAY, AND THAT GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM
DISSIPATES IN A FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH (45 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND DALILA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW TONIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB (29.77 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

..
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 242031
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019
2100 UTC WED JUL 24 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 119.8W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 119.8W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 119.6W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 21.3N 120.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 21.9N 121.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 22.3N 123.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 22.8N 124.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 119.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

..
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 241555

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 24.07.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.0N 119.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.07.2019 0 20.0N 119.1W 1007 24
0000UTC 25.07.2019 12 20.7N 120.3W 1008 20
1200UTC 25.07.2019 24 21.1N 121.2W 1009 20
0000UTC 26.07.2019 36 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 13.0N 122.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.07.2019 84 13.1N 124.0W 1004 27
1200UTC 28.07.2019 96 13.8N 127.1W 1000 39
0000UTC 29.07.2019 108 14.8N 130.5W 995 45
1200UTC 29.07.2019 120 15.3N 133.6W 995 44
0000UTC 30.07.2019 132 15.9N 136.5W 998 43
1200UTC 30.07.2019 144 16.6N 139.3W 999 46

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 10.5N 104.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.07.2019 84 10.5N 104.6W 1006 29
1200UTC 28.07.2019 96 11.2N 108.5W 1001 39
0000UTC 29.07.2019 108 11.4N 111.8W 995 44
1200UTC 29.07.2019 120 11.7N 114.9W 990 46
0000UTC 30.07.2019 132 11.9N 117.8W 986 51
1200UTC 30.07.2019 144 11.9N 120.4W 981 56


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 241555

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 241555

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 24.07.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.0N 119.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 24.07.2019 20.0N 119.1W WEAK
00UTC 25.07.2019 20.7N 120.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.07.2019 21.1N 121.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.07.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 13.0N 122.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 28.07.2019 13.1N 124.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 28.07.2019 13.8N 127.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 29.07.2019 14.8N 130.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 29.07.2019 15.3N 133.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.07.2019 15.9N 136.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.07.2019 16.6N 139.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 10.5N 104.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 28.07.2019 10.5N 104.6W WEAK
12UTC 28.07.2019 11.2N 108.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 29.07.2019 11.4N 111.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 29.07.2019 11.7N 114.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.07.2019 11.9N 117.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.07.2019 11.9N 120.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 241555

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 241600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (DALILA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 20.3N 118.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N 118.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 21.1N 119.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 21.9N 120.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 22.3N 122.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 22.7N 123.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
241600Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 119.1W.
24JUL19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (DALILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
750 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS
9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242200Z, 250400Z, 251000Z AND 251600Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 241431
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019
800 AM PDT WED JUL 24 2019

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING, HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A
BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION. A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB
AND SAB SUPPORT MAINTAINING AN INTENSITY OF 30 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. DALILA WILL BE MOVING OVER SSTS OF 23-24 DEG C LATER
TODAY, AND INTO A DRY AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN WEAKENING, AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE
INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS.

IT APPEARS THAT DALILA HAS TAKEN A NORTHWARD JOG THIS MORNING, BUT
THE LONGER-TERM MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/6 KT. THERE HAS BEEN NO
CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. DALILA SHOULD CONTINUE
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TODAY, THEN TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT COMES
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY DUE TO THE MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL POSITION, HOWEVER, THE
UPDATED OFFICIAL FORECAST IS STILL NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE AND CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 20.5N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 21.1N 119.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 21.9N 120.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 26/0000Z 22.3N 122.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 26/1200Z 22.7N 123.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 241431
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019
800 AM PDT WED JUL 24 2019

...DALILA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 119.0W
ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 119.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H), AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BY THURSDAY, AND THAT GENERAL
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES IN A FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND DALILA IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW TONIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.

..
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 241430
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019
1500 UTC WED JUL 24 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 119.0W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 119.0W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 118.8W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 21.1N 119.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 21.9N 120.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 22.3N 122.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 22.7N 123.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 119.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

..
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 241000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (DALILA) WARNING NR 009
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 05E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 19.6N 118.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 118.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 20.4N 119.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 21.1N 120.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 21.8N 121.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 22.2N 122.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
241000Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 118.9W.
24JUL19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (DALILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
790 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 241600Z, 242200Z, 250400Z AND 251000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 240836 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019
200 AM PDT WED JUL 24 2019

DALILA HAS MAINTAINED A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BASED ON RECENT
SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA, BUT THOSE DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT DALILA'S
PEAK WINDS HAD DECREASED TO 27-30 KT DESPITE A SHARP INCREASE IN
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. UW-CIMSS ADT AND
SATCON ESTIMATES SUGGEST A HIGHER INTENSITY OF 35-44 KT. HOWEVER, IT
APPEARS THAT THE COOLER WATER THAT THE CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER HAS
STABILIZED THE BOUNDARY LAYER, WHICH IS NOT ALLOWING THE NORMAL
DOWNWARD MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO REACH THE SURFACE. GIVEN
THE LOWER ASCAT WIND DATA, DALILA HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/05 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHIES.
DALILA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY WHEN THE WEAKENING CYCLONE
BECOMES MORE SHALLOW AND COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EASTERLY
TRADE WIND FLOW. THE CYCLONE IS NOW MOVING OVER 25 DEG C SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, WITH COOLER WATER AND MORE STABLE AIR STILL AHEAD OF
DALILA. AS A RESULT, CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WANE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ACCOMPANIED BY A STEADY SPIN DOWN OF THE VORTEX,
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE SYSTEM DEGENERATING INTO A POST-TROPICAL
REMNANT LOW BY THURSDAY MORNING, IF NOT SOONER. THE NHC TRACK AND
INTENSITY FORECASTS CLOSELY FOLLOW THE CONSENSUS MODELS HCCA AND
IVCN, RESPECTIVELY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 240836
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019
200 AM PDT WED JUL 24 2019

...DALILA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 118.8W
ABOUT 610 MI...985 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 118.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H) AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BY THURSDAY AND THAT GENERAL
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES IN A FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, AND DALILA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
REMNANT LOW BY THURSDAY MORNING.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

..
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 240836
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Dalila Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019
200 AM PDT Wed Jul 24 2019

Dalila has maintained a robust low-level circulation based on recent
scatterometer wind data, but those data also indicate that Dalila's
peak winds had decreased to 27-30 kt despite a sharp increase in
deep convection near and southeast of the center. UW-CIMSS ADT and
SATCON estimates suggest a higher intensity of 35-44 kt. However, it
appears that the cooler water that the cyclone is moving over has
stabilized the boundary layer, which is not allowing the normal
downward mixing of stronger winds aloft to reach the surface. Given
the lower ASCAT wind data, Dalila has been downgraded to a 30-kt
tropical depression.

The initial motion estimate is 315/05 kt. There is no significant
change to the previous track and intensity forecast philosophies.
Dalila is expected to move northwestward today, followed by a turn
toward the west-northwest on Thursday when the weakening cyclone
becomes more shallow and comes under the influence of easterly
trade wind flow. The cyclone is now moving over 25 deg C sea-surface
temperatures, with cooler water and more stable air still ahead of
Dalila. As a result, convection is expected to gradually wane during
the next 24 hours, accompanied by a steady spin down of the vortex,
which should result in the system degenerating into a post-tropical
remnant low by Thursday morning, if not sooner. The NHC track and
intensity forecasts closely follow the consensus models HCCA and
IVCN, respectively.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 19.8N 118.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 20.4N 119.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 21.1N 120.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 25/1800Z 21.8N 121.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 26/0600Z 22.2N 122.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 240835
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019
0900 UTC WED JUL 24 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 118.8W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 118.8W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 118.6W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 20.4N 119.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 21.1N 120.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 21.8N 121.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 22.2N 122.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 118.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

..
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 240355

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 24.07.2019

TROPICAL STORM DALILA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.0N 118.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.07.2019 0 19.0N 118.4W 1005 27
1200UTC 24.07.2019 12 19.7N 119.7W 1006 25
0000UTC 25.07.2019 24 20.3N 120.7W 1007 22
1200UTC 25.07.2019 36 20.8N 121.6W 1008 24
0000UTC 26.07.2019 48 20.6N 123.1W 1009 21
1200UTC 26.07.2019 60 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 26.9N 92.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.07.2019 60 27.8N 91.7W 1013 23
0000UTC 27.07.2019 72 28.8N 91.1W 1014 22
1200UTC 27.07.2019 84 29.9N 90.2W 1016 22
0000UTC 28.07.2019 96 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 10.8N 100.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.07.2019 84 10.8N 100.3W 1007 28
0000UTC 28.07.2019 96 11.9N 103.9W 999 42
1200UTC 28.07.2019 108 12.1N 107.6W 985 56
0000UTC 29.07.2019 120 12.8N 110.4W 985 54
1200UTC 29.07.2019 132 13.0N 113.3W 984 55
0000UTC 30.07.2019 144 13.0N 115.7W 977 63

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 12.3N 120.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.07.2019 84 12.3N 120.5W 1006 27
0000UTC 28.07.2019 96 13.0N 123.4W 1004 29
1200UTC 28.07.2019 108 13.4N 126.5W 999 39
0000UTC 29.07.2019 120 13.9N 129.6W 994 46
1200UTC 29.07.2019 132 14.2N 132.1W 989 53
0000UTC 30.07.2019 144 14.9N 134.8W 991 52


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 240355

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 240355

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 24.07.2019

TROPICAL STORM DALILA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.0N 118.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 24.07.2019 19.0N 118.4W WEAK
12UTC 24.07.2019 19.7N 119.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.07.2019 20.3N 120.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.07.2019 20.8N 121.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.07.2019 20.6N 123.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.07.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 26.9N 92.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 26.07.2019 27.8N 91.7W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 27.07.2019 28.8N 91.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.07.2019 29.9N 90.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.07.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 10.8N 100.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 27.07.2019 10.8N 100.3W WEAK
00UTC 28.07.2019 11.9N 103.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.07.2019 12.1N 107.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 29.07.2019 12.8N 110.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.07.2019 13.0N 113.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.07.2019 13.0N 115.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 12.3N 120.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 27.07.2019 12.3N 120.5W WEAK
00UTC 28.07.2019 13.0N 123.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.07.2019 13.4N 126.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 29.07.2019 13.9N 129.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 29.07.2019 14.2N 132.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.07.2019 14.9N 134.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 240355

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 240400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DALILA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 19.2N 118.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 118.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 20.0N 119.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 20.7N 120.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 21.3N 121.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 21.8N 122.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
240400Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 118.5W.
24JUL19. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DALILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 812
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 241000Z, 241600Z, 242200Z AND 250400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 240240 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 23 2019

DALILA HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE STORM
REMAINS VERY ASYMMETRIC WITH DEEP CONVECTION LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AN
ASCAT PASS FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 35
KT, AND SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN STEADY STATE, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT THAT VALUE.

DALILA HAS JUST CROSSED THE 26 DEGREE C ISOTHERM AND IT IS HEADED
FOR EVEN COOLER WATERS. IN ADDITION, A FIELD OF STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGES NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE
SYSTEM, INDICATIVE OF THE NEARBY STABLE AIR MASS. THESE CONDITIONS
SHOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING SOON, AND DALILA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND A REMNANT LOW IN
A DAY OR SO. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE REMNANT LOW OPENING UP INTO
A TROUGH IN A FEW DAYS OR LESS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN LINE WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
GUIDANCE.

THE STORM IS STILL MOVING NORTHWESTWARD, BUT IT IS GRADUALLY TURNING
TO THE LEFT. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO, AS THE CYCLONE LOSES ITS CONVECTION AND MOVES
WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW, AND THAT MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST
IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR THE VARIOUS
CONSENSUS MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 19.4N 118.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 20.0N 119.2W 30 KT 35 MPH

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 240240
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019
800 PM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019

Dalila has changed little during the last several hours. The storm
remains very asymmetric with deep convection limited to the
southeastern quadrant due to northwesterly vertical wind shear. An
ASCAT pass from several hours ago showed maximum winds of about 35
kt, and since the system has been steady state, the initial
intensity is held at that value.

Dalila has just crossed the 26 degree C isotherm and it is headed
for even cooler waters. In addition, a field of stratocumulus
clouds are seen in satellite images near and to the west of the
system, indicative of the nearby stable air mass. These conditions
should lead to weakening soon, and Dalila is expected to become
a tropical depression within the next 12 hours and a remnant low in
a day or so. The global models show the remnant low opening up into
a trough in a few days or less. The NHC intensity forecast is
identical to the previous one and in line with the majority of the
guidance.

The storm is still moving northwestward, but it is gradually turning
to the left. A turn to the west-northwest is forecast during the
next day or so, as the cyclone loses its convection and moves
within the low-level easterly trade wind flow, and that motion
should continue until the system dissipates. The NHC track forecast
is largely an update of the previous one and is near the various
consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 19.4N 118.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 20.0N 119.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 20.7N 120.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 21.3N 121.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 26/0000Z 21.8N 122.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 240239
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DALILA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 23 2019

...DALILA STILL A TROPICAL STORM BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOON...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 118.4W
ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 317 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 118.4 WEST. DALILA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND THAT
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES IN A FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND
DALILA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY AND WILL LIKELY DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR
SO.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES (150 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

..
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 240239
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019
0300 UTC WED JUL 24 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 118.4W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 317 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 118.4W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 118.2W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 20.0N 119.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.7N 120.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 21.3N 121.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 21.8N 122.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 118.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

..
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 232200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (DALILA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DALILA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 19.0N 118.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0N 118.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 19.9N 118.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 20.7N 120.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 21.3N 121.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 21.8N 122.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
232200Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 118.3W.
23JUL19. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DALILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 823
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 11
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240400Z, 241000Z, 241600Z AND 242200Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 232032 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 23 2019

DALILA HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
NORTHERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS HAS CAUSED THE PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE AREA TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND BECOME MORE SEPARATED
FROM THE SURFACE CIRCULATION. AN ASCAT OVERPASS FROM AROUND MIDDAY
SAMPLED THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION AND DETECTED
35 TO 40 KT WINDS, WHICH SUGGESTS DALILA COULD HAVE BEEN
SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN ANALYZED THIS MORNING. BASED ON THE ASCAT
AND THE RECENT DEGRADATION OF THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

DALILA IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR 325/7 KT. THE CYCLONE IS
CURRENTLY MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. AS DALILA WEAKENS AND
BECOMES A MORE VERTICALLY SHALLOW SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS, IT SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD WITHIN THE
LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW. THE LATEST GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS NOT MUCH
DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS CYCLE, AND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

DALILA IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM AND THE NORTHERLY
SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO ABATE. AS A RESULT, GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED. AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER EVEN COOLER SSTS AND INTO A
MORE STABLE AIR MASS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
LOSE ITS REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
REMNANT LOW IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, AND THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 232032
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019
200 PM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019

Dalila has become less organized since the previous advisory.
Northerly shear and cooler waters has caused the primary
convective area to decrease in coverage and become more separated
from the surface circulation. An ASCAT overpass from around midday
sampled the southeastern portion of the circulation and detected
35 to 40 kt winds, which suggests Dalila could have been
slightly stronger than analyzed this morning. Based on the ASCAT
and the recent degradation of the convective organization, the
initial intensity is set at 35 kt for this advisory.

Dalila is moving northwestward or 325/7 kt. The cyclone is
currently moving around the southwestern portion of a mid-level
ridge over the southwestern United States. As Dalila weakens and
becomes a more vertically shallow system during the next 12 to 24
hours, it should turn west-northwestward to westward within the
low-level steering flow. The latest guidance envelope is not much
different from the previous cycle, and the NHC track forecast is
essentially an update of the previous advisory.

Dalila is currently crossing the 26C isotherm and the northerly
shear is not forecast to abate. As a result, gradual weakening is
anticipated. As the cyclone moves over even cooler SSTs and into a
more stable air mass during the next 24 hours, the system should
lose its remaining deep convection and become a post-tropical
remnant low in 24 to 36 hours. The intensity guidance is in good
agreement, and the updated NHC intensity forecast is close to the
model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 19.1N 118.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 19.9N 118.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 20.7N 120.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 21.3N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 25/1800Z 21.8N 122.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 232031
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DALILA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 23 2019

...DALILA HEADING TOWARD COOLER WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 118.2W
ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 118.2 WEST. DALILA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND DALILA
IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT, AND
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES (150 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

..
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 232030
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019
2100 UTC TUE JUL 23 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 118.2W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 118.2W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 118.0W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 19.9N 118.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 20.7N 120.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 21.3N 121.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 21.8N 122.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 118.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

..
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 231600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (DALILA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DALILA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 18.4N 117.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4N 117.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 19.4N 118.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 20.3N 119.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 20.9N 120.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 21.5N 121.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
231600Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 117.8W.
23JUL19. TROPICAL STORM 05E (DALILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 858
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
231200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232200Z, 240400Z, 241000Z AND
241600Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 231438 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 23 2019

DALILA CONTINUES TO BATTLE 15-20 KT OF NORTHERLY SHEAR WITH DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THERE ARE MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL SWIRLS
ENCIRCLING A MEAN CENTER THAT IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE EDGE OF
THE CONVECTION. THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH
TAFB AND UW-CIMMS SUPPORT MAINTAINING A 35 KT INITIAL INTENSITY FOR
THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/07. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL STEER THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, IT WILL BECOME
STEERED BY AN INCREASING COMPONENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW, RESULTING
IN A TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW MODEL CYCLES, THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST, AND THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK HAS ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE IN THAT DIRECTION.

DALILA IS APPROACHING THE 26 C ISOTHERM AND THE CENTER IS FORECAST
TO CROSS IT IN ABOUT 12 HOURS, WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND
TO BEGIN BY TONIGHT. IN ADDITION, THE CURRENT SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED
TO DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AND DURING THAT
TIME THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING INTO A DRIER, MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THESE FACTORS SHOULD CAUSE DALILA TO LOSE ITS DEEP
CONVECTION AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST
FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 231438
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019
800 AM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019

Dalila continues to battle 15-20 kt of northerly shear with deep
convection displaced across the southern semicircle of the storm.
Satellite imagery indicates that there are multiple low level swirls
encircling a mean center that is located just north of the edge of
the convection. The latest Dvorak intensity estimates from both
TAFB and UW-CIMMS support maintaining a 35 kt initial intensity for
this advisory.

The initial motion is 330/07. A mid-level ridge over the
southwestern United States will steer the cyclone to the northwest
through much of tonight. As the system weakens, it will become
steered by an increasing component of the low-level flow, resulting
in a turn more to the west-northwest Wednesday and Thursday.
Similar to the past few model cycles, the latest guidance has
shifted slightly to the west, and therefore the official forecast
track has also been adjusted a little in that direction.

Dalila is approaching the 26 C isotherm and the center is forecast
to cross it in about 12 hours, which should cause a weakening trend
to begin by tonight. In addition, the current shear is not expected
to decrease significantly in the next day or so, and during that
time the cyclone will be moving into a drier, more stable
environment. These factors should cause Dalila to lose its deep
convection and become a remnant low by Wednesday night. The latest
forecast is essentially an update of the previous official intensity
forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 18.7N 117.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 19.4N 118.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 20.3N 119.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 20.9N 120.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 25/1200Z 21.5N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 231435
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DALILA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 23 2019

...DALILA EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING BY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 117.7W
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 117.7 WEST. DALILA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H). A TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A
MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY TONIGHT AND THE DALILA IS FORECAST
TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES (150 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.

..
FORECASTER LATTO/BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 231435
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019
1500 UTC TUE JUL 23 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 117.7W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 117.7W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 117.5W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 19.4N 118.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 20.3N 119.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.9N 120.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 21.5N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 117.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

..
FORECASTER LATTO/BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 231000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (FIVE) WARNING NR 005
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 17.8N 117.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 117.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 18.8N 117.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 19.8N 118.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 20.6N 119.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 21.3N 120.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 22.3N 123.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
231000Z POSITION NEAR 18.1N 117.3W.
23JUL19. TROPICAL STORM 05E (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 894 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 231600Z, 232200Z, 240400Z AND 241000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 230837 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 23 2019

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME STRONGER AND CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE
CYCLONE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. WHILE THE CIRCULATION IS
STILL ELONGATED, IT HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED, WITH THE LATEST ASCAT
PASS AT 0440 UTC SHOWING 30-35 KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT.
SINCE TAFB, ADT AND SATCON HAVE THE CURRENT INTENSITY AS A TROPICAL
STORM, PLUS THE RECENT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION, THE CURRENT WIND
SPEED HAS BEEN SET TO 35 KT.

DALILA IS PROBABLY NEAR PEAK INTENSITY. SINCE SSTS DROP OFF LATER
TODAY, ALONG WITH A CONTINUATION OF MODERATE NORTHERLY SHEAR,
WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS, SSTS NEAR
24C, DRY AIR ALOFT, AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD CONTRIBUTE
TO DALILA LOSING DEEP CONVECTION, THUS BECOMING A REMNANT LOW. THIS
IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE, AND THE LATEST NHC
INTENSITY PREDICTION IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.

THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY AT 330/6 DUE TO THE CENTER
TRYING TO REFORM NEAR THE STRONG CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD PROVIDE
SIMILAR STEERING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, CAUSING A MOTION
GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY. AS DALILA WEAKENS, IT
WILL LIKELY TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY WITHIN THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW CYCLES, MODEL GUIDANCE IS
CONTINUING TO SHIFT WESTWARD, AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT
TREND, NOT TERRIBLY FAR FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TRACK CONSENSUS

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 230837
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019
200 AM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019

Deep convection has become stronger and closer to the center of the
cyclone during the past several hours. While the circulation is
still elongated, it has become better defined, with the latest ASCAT
pass at 0440 UTC showing 30-35 kt winds in the southern quadrant.
Since TAFB, ADT and SATCON have the current intensity as a tropical
storm, plus the recent increase in organization, the current wind
speed has been set to 35 kt.

Dalila is probably near peak intensity. Since SSTs drop off later
today, along with a continuation of moderate northerly shear,
weakening should begin on Wednesday. In a couple of days, SSTs near
24C, dry air aloft, and a more stable atmosphere should contribute
to Dalila losing deep convection, thus becoming a remnant low. This
is the solution provided by much of the guidance, and the latest NHC
intensity prediction is close to the previous one.

The cyclone has been moving erratically at 330/6 due to the center
trying to reform near the strong convection to the south. A
mid-level ridge over the southwestern United States should provide
similar steering during the next day or so, causing a motion
generally toward the northwest by Wednesday. As Dalila weakens, it
will likely turn more to the west-northwest on Thursday within the
low-level flow. Similar to the past few cycles, model guidance is
continuing to shift westward, and the official forecast follows that
trend, not terribly far from the eastern Pacific track consensus
model TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 18.0N 117.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 18.8N 117.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 19.8N 118.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 20.6N 119.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 21.3N 120.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/0600Z 22.3N 123.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 230835
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019
0900 UTC TUE JUL 23 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 117.3W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 117.3W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 117.1W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 18.8N 117.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 19.8N 118.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 20.6N 119.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 21.3N 120.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 22.3N 123.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 117.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

..
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 230835
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DALILA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 23 2019

...DALILA FORMS BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 117.3W
ABOUT 585 MI...945 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM
DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 117.3 WEST.
DALILA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H).
A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
MOVEMENT MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY, AND
DALILA COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW ON THURSDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES (150 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

..
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 230400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (FIVE) WARNING NR 004 //
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (FIVE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 17.3N 116.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 116.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 18.5N 117.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 19.6N 117.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 20.5N 118.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 21.2N 119.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 22.5N 122.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
230400Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 116.9W.
23JUL19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
924 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
230000Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231000Z, 231600Z, 232200Z AND
240400Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 230236 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019
800 PM PDT MON JUL 22 2019

THIS EVENING'S VISIBLE SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONSISTS OF A RATHER
RAGGED AND SHAPELESS CLOUD PATTERN WITH MULTIPLE CLOUD SWIRLS SEEN
ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB REMAIN
UNCHANGED (T2.0/30 KT) AS WELL AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.

THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST INTENSITY PHILOSOPHY. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHIPS INDICATE THAT THE NORTHERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY
IMPINGING ON THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS INHIBITING WIND PATTERN ALONG
WITH COOLER OCEANIC SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AHEAD OF THE PREDICTED
TRACK, SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW
IN 48 HOURS WITH DISSIPATION IN 4 DAYS OR LESS. THE ONLY MODEL
THAT SHOWS STRENGTHENING TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS IS THE COAMPS-TC.
FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES, I'VE ELECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS SLIGHT 12-24
HOUR INTENSIFICATION PERIOD IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

BECAUSE OF THE ILL-DEFINED CIRCULATION, THE INITIAL MOTION IS
ESTIMATED TO BE A BIT UNCERTAIN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 345/7
KT, WITHIN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW PRODUCED BY HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE
DEPRESSION SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING IN A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD
DIRECTION TOWARD A BREAK IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS. AFTERWARD, AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
WEAKEN, A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST, WITHIN THE TRADEWIND FLOW,

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 230236
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019
800 PM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019

This evening's visible satellite presentation consists of a rather
ragged and shapeless cloud pattern with multiple cloud swirls seen
rotating around the mean surface circulation center. The Dvorak
satellite intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB remain
unchanged (T2.0/30 kt) as well as the initial intensity.

There are no changes to the forecast intensity philosophy. Both
the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS indicate that the northerly shear currently
impinging on the northeastern portion of the system will persist
through the forecast period. This inhibiting wind pattern along
with cooler oceanic surface temperatures, ahead of the predicted
track, should cause the cyclone to degenerate into a remnant low
in 48 hours with dissipation in 4 days or less. The only model
that shows strengthening to tropical storm status is the COAMPS-TC.
For continuity purposes, I've elected to maintain this slight 12-24
hour intensification period in the official forecast.

Because of the ill-defined circulation, the initial motion is
estimated to be a bit uncertain north-northwestward, or 345/7
kt, within the low- to mid-level steering flow produced by high
pressure located over the southwestern United States. The
depression should continue moving in a general northwestward
direction toward a break in the ridge to the northwest of the
cyclone during the next 2 days. Afterward, as the system begins to
weaken, a turn toward the west-northwest, within the tradewind flow,
is anticipated. The model guidance is tightly clustered with the
exception being the left outlier UKMET. The only adjustment in the
NHC forecast is, again, a shift slightly to the left of the previous
advisory, but follows both the TVCE and HCCA consensus models
closely.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 17.6N 116.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 18.5N 117.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 19.6N 117.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 20.5N 118.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 21.2N 119.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/0000Z 22.5N 122.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 230234
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019
800 PM PDT MON JUL 22 2019

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 116.8W
ABOUT 575 MI...930 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 116.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H)
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. AFTERWARD,
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO, AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
COMMENCE A WEAKENING TREND.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

..
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 230233
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019
0300 UTC TUE JUL 23 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 116.8W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 116.8W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 116.7W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 18.5N 117.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 19.6N 117.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 20.5N 118.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 21.2N 119.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 22.5N 122.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 116.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

..
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 222200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (FIVE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (FIVE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 16.3N 116.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 116.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 17.8N 116.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 19.1N 117.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 20.2N 118.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 21.0N 119.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 22.1N 121.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
222200Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 116.6W.
22JUL19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
985 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
221800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230400Z, 231000Z, 231600Z AND
232200Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 222039
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019
2100 UTC MON JUL 22 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 116.6W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 116.6W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 116.5W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 17.8N 116.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.1N 117.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.2N 118.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 21.0N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 22.1N 121.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 116.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

..
FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 222037 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019
200 PM PDT MON JUL 22 2019

THE DEPRESSION IS STRUGGLING TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL SWIRLS MOVING ABOUT A
MEAN CENTER OF CIRCULATION, WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION BEING CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. BOTH
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT
THE SYSTEM INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT.

SINCE THE EXACT CENTER IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE, THE INITIAL
MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 345/08KT. THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT
WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE MAJORITY OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE, AND THIS IS
POSSIBLY DUE TO THEM STEERING A WEAKER SYSTEM THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS BETWEEN A WEAK MID-LEVEL
TROUGH TO ITS WEST, AND A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS
NORTHEAST. AFTER 36 HOURS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAKE A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES
CARRIED BY THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS.

THERE IS A SHRINKING WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE DEPRESSION TO GET
ITS ACT TOGETHER BEFORE IT MOVES OVER SSTS BELOW 26 C AND INTO A
STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT IN 24-36 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, THE 15
TO 20 KT OF SHEAR CURRENTLY OVER THE SYSTEM MAY PREVENT IT FROM
INTENSIFYING ANY FURTHER. HOWEVER, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
THE DEPRESSION TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER MARGINAL SSTS INTO A
WEAK TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING TREND BEGINNING
IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN INTO A REMNANT LOW BY

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 222037
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019
200 PM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019

The depression is struggling to become better organized. Visible
satellite imagery shows multiple low-level swirls moving about a
mean center of circulation, with the deep convection being confined
to the southwestern semicircle due to northeasterly shear. Both
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates indicate that
the system intensity remains 30 kt.

Since the exact center is somewhat difficult to locate, the initial
motion is a rather uncertain 345/08kt. There has been a slight
westward shift in the majority of the track guidance, and this is
possibly due to them steering a weaker system than previously
forecast. The depression is expected to continue to move
north-northwest for the next 24-36 hours between a weak mid-level
trough to its west, and a building mid-level ridge to its
northeast. After 36 hours, the system should make a gradual
turn toward the west-northwest as the cyclone weakens and becomes
carried by the low-level steering currents.

There is a shrinking window of opportunity for the depression to get
its act together before it moves over SSTs below 26 C and into a
stable atmospheric environment in 24-36 hours. Additionally, the 15
to 20 kt of shear currently over the system may prevent it from
intensifying any further. However, the official forecast calls for
the depression to intensify slightly over marginal SSTs into a
weak tropical storm tonight, followed by a weakening trend beginning
in about 24 hours. The cyclone should weaken into a remnant low by
48 hours and then dissipate late this week. The intensity forecast
through 24 hours remains the same as the previous advisory, but
it has been lowered beyond 24 hours and is in agreement with the
majority of the intensity guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 16.7N 116.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 17.8N 116.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 19.1N 117.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 20.2N 118.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 21.0N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/1800Z 22.1N 121.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 222036
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019
200 PM PDT MON JUL 22 2019

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 116.6W
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 116.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A DAY SO WITH A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST BY MIDWEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO,
AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT.
AFTER THAT TIME, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

..
FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 221600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (FIVE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (FIVE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 15.5N 116.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N 116.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 17.0N 116.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 18.5N 116.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 19.8N 117.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 20.8N 118.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 22.3N 120.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 23.5N 122.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 24.0N 125.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
221600Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 116.4W.
22JUL19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1033 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z
IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222200Z, 230400Z, 231000Z AND 231600Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 221435 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019
800 AM PDT MON JUL 22 2019

A RECENT SATELLITE MICROWAVE PASS INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS
NOT GOTTEN ANY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS KEEPING MUCH OF THE CONVECTION DISPLACED TO
THE WEST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. BOTH THE LATEST TAFB
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE AND UW-CIMMS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS A 30-KT DEPRESSION.

THE INITIAL MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION IS 355/08 KT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUATION OF THIS GENERAL MOTION FOR THE
NEXT 36-48 HOURS AS THE DEPRESSION IS STEERED BETWEEN A WEAK
MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS WEST, AND A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS
NORTHEAST. AFTER 48 HOURS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AS IT BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOWER-LEVEL
FLOW. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST TRACK IS VERY NEAR THE PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL FORECAST AND IS NEAR THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.

ALTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING, THE SHEAR IS
PREVENTING THE INNER CORE OF THE DEPRESSION FROM BECOMING BETTER
ESTABLISHED. THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVENT ANY
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION DURING THAT TIME FRAME. SINCE THE OTHER
ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS ARE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY BECOME A
MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. AFTER 48 HOURS, THE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER WATERS BELOW 26 C AND INTO A STABLE

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 221435
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019
800 AM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019

A recent satellite microwave pass indicates that the depression has
not gotten any better organized this morning. It appears that
northeasterly shear is keeping much of the convection displaced to
the west of the center of circulation. Both the latest TAFB
Dvorak satellite intensity estimate and UW-CIMMS objective intensity
estimate indicate that the system remains a 30-kt depression.

The initial motion of the depression is 355/08 kt. Model guidance is
in good agreement on a continuation of this general motion for the
next 36-48 hours as the depression is steered between a weak
mid-level trough to its west, and a building mid-level ridge to its
northeast. After 48 hours, the system should begin to weaken and
turn toward the northwest as it becomes steered by the lower-level
flow. The latest NHC forecast track is very near the previous
official forecast and is near the track guidance consensus.

Although convection has increased this morning, the shear is
preventing the inner core of the depression from becoming better
established. This shear is forecast to remain in the 15-20 kt range
for the next 48 hours which should continue to prevent any
significant intensification during that time frame. Since the other
environmental parameters are somewhat favorable for intensification
during the next day or so, the depression will likely become a
minimal tropical storm later today or tonight. After 48 hours, the
system will move over waters below 26 C and into a stable
atmospheric environment which should induce steady weakening. By 72
hours, the system is expected to become a remnant low, with
dissipation likely by 120 hours. The official intensity forecast is
close to the previous NHC forecast, and is near the more reliable
intensity guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 15.9N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 17.0N 116.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 18.5N 116.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 19.8N 117.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 20.8N 118.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 22.3N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/1200Z 23.5N 122.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 27/1200Z 24.0N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 221434
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019
800 AM PDT MON JUL 22 2019

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWARD OVER OPEN WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 116.3W
ABOUT 640 MI...1025 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 116.3 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H) AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO, WITH A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BY MIDWEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.

..
FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 221433
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019
1500 UTC MON JUL 22 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 116.3W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 116.3W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 116.3W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 17.0N 116.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 18.5N 116.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 19.8N 117.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 20.8N 118.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 22.3N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 23.5N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 24.0N 125.0W...DISSIPATED
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 116.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

..
FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 221000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (FIVE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 14.6N 116.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 116.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 16.3N 116.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 17.9N 116.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 19.2N 117.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 20.4N 117.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 22.0N 119.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 23.2N 122.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 24.6N 124.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
221000Z POSITION NEAR 15.2N 116.2W.
22JUL19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1087 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z
IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221600Z, 222200Z, 230400Z AND 231000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 220836 RRA
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019
200 AM PDT MON JUL 22 2019

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT
600 NMI SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THAT THE NHC HAS BEEN
MONITORING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS FINALLY DEVELOPED A
SUFFICIENT INNER-CORE WIND FIELD AND ENOUGH ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT BASED ON TWO ASCAT PASSES BETWEEN
0430-0530Z THAT SHOWED 30-31 KT WIND VECTORS IN THE WESTERN
QUADRANT, WHICH CORRESPONDS WELL WITH THE LATEST TAFB DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0/30 KT FROM TAFB.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 360/08 KT DUE TO THE
LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED CENTER UNTIL RECENTLY. HOWEVER, THE NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CYCLONE MOVING
NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A
BROAD MID-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE DEPRESSION. BY
72 H AND CONTINUING THROUGH 120 H, THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD AS A WEAKENING REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE NHC
FORECAST TRACK LIES CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS
MODELS, AND IS ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTIONS THAT BOUND ON THE EASTERN AND WESTERN FRINGES,
RESPECTIVELY, OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

MODEST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND OCCASIONAL
INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR ARE EXPECTED TO HINDER DEVELOPMENT AND
STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. BY LATE ON DAY 2 AND
ESPECIALLY BY DAY 3, THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-26 DEG C

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 220836
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019
200 AM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019

The area of disturbed weather and low pressure system located about
600 nmi southwest of Baja California Sur that the NHC has been
monitoring for the past several days has finally developed a
sufficient inner-core wind field and enough organized deep
convection to be classified as a tropical cyclone. The initial
intensity is set at 30 kt based on two ASCAT passes between
0430-0530Z that showed 30-31 kt wind vectors in the western
quadrant, which corresponds well with the latest TAFB Dvorak
satellite intensity estimate of T2.0/30 kt from TAFB.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 360/08 kt due to the
lack of a well-defined center until recently. However, the NHC model
guidance is in surprisingly good agreement on the cyclone moving
northward for the next 36-48 hours around the eastern periphery of a
broad mid-level low/trough located to the west of the depression. By
72 h and continuing through 120 h, the cyclone is forecast to move
northwestward as a weakening remnant low pressure system. The NHC
forecast track lies close to a blend of the various consensus
models, and is about midway between the GFS and ECMWF model
solutions that bound on the eastern and western fringes,
respectively, of the track guidance envelope.

Modest north to northeasterly vertical wind shear and occasional
intrusions of dry air are expected to hinder development and
strengthening for the next 48 hours or so. By late on day 2 and
especially by day 3, the cyclone will be moving over sub-26 deg C
sea-surface temperatures, which will induce at least steady
weakening despite decreasing vertical wind shear conditions during
that time. The official intensity forecast is similar to but
slightly higher higher than the IVCN and HCCA intensity consensus
models, with the latter guidance calling for no strengthening.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 15.0N 116.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 16.3N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 17.9N 116.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 19.2N 117.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 20.4N 117.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 22.0N 119.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/0600Z 23.2N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 27/0600Z 24.6N 124.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 220835
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019
200 AM PDT MON JUL 22 2019

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 116.2W
ABOUT 685 MI...1100 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 116.2 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H) AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAKENING TREND
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

..
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 220834
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019
0900 UTC MON JUL 22 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 116.2W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 116.2W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 116.2W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.3N 116.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 17.9N 116.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.2N 117.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.4N 117.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 22.0N 119.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 23.2N 122.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 24.6N 124.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 116.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

..
FORECASTER STEWART

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