Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for HENRIETTE-19
Off-shore

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2019-08-13 14:34

WTPZ44 KNHC 131433
TCDEP4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Henriette Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092019
800 AM PDT Tue Aug 13 2019

The system has been devoid of deep convection for about 12 hours,
and therefore, it has degenerated into a remnant low. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving through an environment of
dry, stable air and over cooler SSTs, which should cause the low to
dissipate in a day or so.

The motion is west-northwestward, or 285/10 kt. A low-level ridge
to the north of the system should steer Henriette's remnants on a
west-northwestward to westward heading until dissipation. The
official track forecast is close to the multi-model consensus,
TVCE.

This is the last NHC advisory on Henriette. For additional
information on the remnant low please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 21.4N 116.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 14/0000Z 21.8N 117.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 14/1200Z 22.0N 120.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2019-08-13 14:34

WTPZ34 KNHC 131432
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HENRIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092019
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 13 2019

...HENRIETTE BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 116.1W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
HENRIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 116.1
WEST. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H) AND A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH (45 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TOMORROW.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB (29.77 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT
LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE, UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC, AND
ON THE WEB AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.PHP

..
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2019-08-13 14:34

WTPZ24 KNHC 131431
TCMEP4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HENRIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092019
1500 UTC TUE AUG 13 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 116.1W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 116.1W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 115.6W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 21.8N 117.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 22.0N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 116.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT
LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

..
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2019-08-13 08:34

WTPZ34 KNHC 130832
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092019
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 13 2019

...HENRIETTE WEAKENING QUICKLY...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 115.2W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
HENRIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 115.2
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH
(20 KM/H) AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH (45 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS, AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A
REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB (29.77 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

..
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-08-13 02:52

WTPZ44 KNHC 130250 RRA
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092019
900 PM MDT MON AUG 12 2019

SCATTEROMETER DATA AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT
HENRIETTE HAS MAINTAINED A ROBUST, COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
DESPITE THE PULSING CONVECTION. IN FACT, THREE EARLIER ASCAT PASSES
BETWEEN 1613Z AND 1728Z INDICATED RELIABLE WIND SPEEDS OF 37-38 KT,
SUGGESTING THAT HENRIETTE COULD HAVE BEEN NEAR 40 KT PRIOR TO THOSE
TIMES. HOWEVER, SINCE 1800Z, NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND DRY AIR INTRUSIONS HAVE REDUCED AND CONFINED THE OVERALL
CONVECTIVE PATTERN TO JUST INTERMITTENT BURSTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 35 KT BASED
ON THE SHEAR PATTERN, A UW-CIMSS ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.4/34
KT, AND ALLOWING FOR SOME SLIGHT SPIN DOWN OF THE LOW-LEVEL VORTEX.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 290/11 KT. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS SO, FOLLOWED BY A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE WEAKENING CYCLONE
BECOMES VERTICALLY SHALLOW AND GETS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY TRADEWIND FLOW. THE NEW NHC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS
ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AND IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY, AND LIES ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CONSENSUS MODELS HCCA
AND TVCE.

ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY WEAKENING,
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HENRIETTE COULD REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM IN 12 H
DUE TO THE CYCLONE COMING OUT OF THE CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD AND
STILL LOCATED OVER SSTS BETWEEN 26C AND 26.5 DEG C. HOWEVER, BY 18 H
AND BEYOND, THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C SSTS AND INTO A

>

2019-08-13 02:52

WTPZ44 KNHC 130250
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092019
900 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2019

Scatterometer data and visible satellite imagery indicate that
Henriette has maintained a robust, compact low-level circulation
despite the pulsing convection. In fact, three earlier ASCAT passes
between 1613Z and 1728Z indicated reliable wind speeds of 37-38 kt,
suggesting that Henriette could have been near 40 kt prior to those
times. However, since 1800Z, northeasterly vertical wind shear
and dry air intrusions have reduced and confined the overall
convective pattern to just intermittent bursts in the southwestern
quadrant. The initial intensity is being maintained at 35 kt based
on the shear pattern, a UW-CIMSS ADT intensity estimate of T2.4/34
kt, and allowing for some slight spin down of the low-level vortex.

The initial motion remains 290/11 kt. A west-northwestward motion
is forecast to continue for the next 24 hours so, followed by a
turn toward the west by early Wednesday as the weakening cyclone
becomes vertically shallow and gets steered by the low-level
easterly tradewind flow. The new NHC forecast track remains
essentially unchanged and is just an extension of the previous
advisory, and lies about midway between the consensus models HCCA
and TVCE.

Although the official intensity forecast calls for steady weakening,
it is possible that Henriette could remain a tropical storm in 12 h
due to the cyclone coming out of the convective maximum period and
still located over SSTs between 26C and 26.5 deg C. However, by 18 h
and beyond, the cyclone will be moving over sub-26C SSTs and into a
drier environment, which is expected to result in significant
weakening, with Henriette degenerating into a remnant low by late
Tuesday and dissipating by late Wednesday. The official intensity
forecast is identical to previous advisory and closely follows the
IVCN and HCCA consensus intensity forecast models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 20.7N 114.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 21.2N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 21.8N 118.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 14/1200Z 22.3N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-08-13 02:52

WTPZ34 KNHC 130250
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092019
900 PM MDT MON AUG 12 2019

...HENRIETTE STILL A TROPICAL STORM BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON
TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 114.3W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 114.3 WEST. HENRIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H), AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TO THE WEST ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND HENRIETTE
IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY LATE TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 AM MDT.

..
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-08-13 02:52

WTPZ24 KNHC 130250
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092019
0300 UTC TUE AUG 13 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 114.3W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 114.3W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 113.7W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.2N 116.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 21.8N 118.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 22.3N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 114.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

..
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-08-12 21:21

WTPN31 PHNC 122200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09E (HENRIETTE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09E (HENRIETTE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 20.1N 112.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1N 112.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 20.9N 114.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 21.6N 117.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 22.1N 119.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
122200Z POSITION NEAR 20.4N 113.3W.
12AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 09E (HENRIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
793 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 130400Z, 131000Z, 131600Z AND 132200Z.
//
NNNN

>

2019-08-12 20:54

WTPZ44 KNHC 122052 RRA
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092019
300 PM MDT MON AUG 12 2019

DRY AIR AND NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR HAVE BEEN STEADILY ERODING THE DEEP
CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER OF HENRIETTE TODAY. THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER IS EXPOSED AND THE ONLY DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING IS CONFINED
TO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. DESPITE THE DEGRADATION IN THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION, A RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED THAT TROPICAL- STORM- FORCE
WINDS ARE STILL OCCURING IN A SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
COMPACT STORM. BASED ON THIS DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35
KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11 KT. THIS MOTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT WHILE THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS
NORTH. A TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS AND BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS VERY NEAR THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND IS CLOSE TO THE
CORRECTED CONSENSUS HCCA WHICH LIES ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
OTHER CONSENSUS AIDS.

DRY, STABLE AIR AND ONGOING SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION OVER THE
CYCLONE WHILE THE CIRCULATION REMAINS OVER MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
SSTS. THIS LACK OF CONVECTION SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND TO
COMMENCE VERY SOON. BY TUESDAY, HENRIETTE WILL MOVE OVER SSTS BELOW
26 C, WHICH, COMBINED WITH THE OTHER UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT
LOW BY LATE TUESDAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A LITTLE FASTER
WEAKENING OF HENRIETTE THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND IS NEAR THE
VARIOUS MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

>

2019-08-12 20:54

WTPZ34 KNHC 122051
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092019
300 PM MDT MON AUG 12 2019

...HENRIETTE HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL STORM BUT SHOULD BEGIN
WEAKENING SOON...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 113.1W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 113.1 WEST. HENRIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H) AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH A TURN TO THE
WEST ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING BY TONIGHT AND DEGENERATE
INTO A REMNANT LOW ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 PM MDT.

..
FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

>

2019-08-12 20:53

WTPZ44 KNHC 122052
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092019
300 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2019

Dry air and northeasterly shear have been steadily eroding the deep
convection around the center of Henriette today. The low-level
center is exposed and the only deep convection remaining is confined
to the western semicircle. Despite the degradation in the satellite
presentation, a recent ASCAT pass showed that tropical- storm- force
winds are still occuring in a small area near the center of the
compact storm. Based on this data, the initial intensity remains 35
kt.

The initial motion is 290/11 kt. This motion will continue through
tonight while the cyclone is steered by a mid-level ridge to its
north. A turn to the west is expected on Tuesday as the system
weakens and becomes steered by the low-level flow. The official
forecast is very near the previous one, and is close to the
corrected consensus HCCA which lies on the southern side of the
other consensus aids.

Dry, stable air and ongoing shear should limit convection over the
cyclone while the circulation remains over marginally favorable
SSTs. This lack of convection should cause a weakening trend to
commence very soon. By Tuesday, Henriette will move over SSTs below
26 C, which, combined with the other unfavorable environmental
conditions, should cause the cyclone to degenerate into a remnant
low by late Tuesday. The official forecast calls for a little faster
weakening of Henriette than the previous one, and is near the
various multi-model consensus solutions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 20.3N 113.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 20.9N 114.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 21.6N 117.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 14/0600Z 22.1N 119.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

>

2019-08-12 20:53

WTPZ24 KNHC 122051
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092019
2100 UTC MON AUG 12 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 113.1W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 113.1W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 112.6W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 20.9N 114.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 21.6N 117.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 22.1N 119.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 113.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

..
FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

>

2019-08-12 15:56

WTNT82 EGRR 121555

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 12.08.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94E ANALYSED POSITION : 12.1N 124.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP942019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.08.2019 0 12.1N 124.7W 1009 19
0000UTC 13.08.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.5N 111.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.08.2019 0 19.5N 111.5W 1009 19
0000UTC 13.08.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 14.0N 124.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.08.2019 24 14.0N 124.9W 1007 23
0000UTC 14.08.2019 36 15.2N 125.9W 1005 28
1200UTC 14.08.2019 48 16.0N 127.5W 1006 28
0000UTC 15.08.2019 60 16.7N 129.1W 1007 29
1200UTC 15.08.2019 72 17.0N 131.5W 1008 27
0000UTC 16.08.2019 84 17.2N 134.1W 1009 27
1200UTC 16.08.2019 96 17.2N 136.9W 1011 22
0000UTC 17.08.2019 108 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 11.4N 153.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.08.2019 60 11.7N 154.3W 1007 26
1200UTC 15.08.2019 72 12.8N 156.4W 1008 26
0000UTC 16.08.2019 84 13.4N 158.7W 1009 25
1200UTC 16.08.2019 96 13.5N 161.1W 1010 27
0000UTC 17.08.2019 108 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 10.8N 168.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.08.2019 72 11.3N 169.3W 1005 30
0000UTC 16.08.2019 84 12.6N 170.6W 1005 26
1200UTC 16.08.2019 96 13.5N 172.5W 1006 29
0000UTC 17.08.2019 108 15.6N 174.8W 1006 30
1200UTC 17.08.2019 120 16.6N 178.4W 1006 30
0000UTC 18.08.2019 132 17.3N 178.3E 1005 28
1200UTC 18.08.2019 144 17.5N 175.7E 1004 32

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 12.8N 92.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.08.2019 120 12.8N 92.8W 1003 35
0000UTC 18.08.2019 132 12.7N 94.1W 996 39
1200UTC 18.08.2019 144 12.5N 94.5W 988 51


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 121555

>

2019-08-12 15:56

WTNT80 EGRR 121555

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 12.08.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94E ANALYSED POSITION : 12.1N 124.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP942019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 12.08.2019 12.1N 124.7W WEAK
00UTC 13.08.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.5N 111.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 12.08.2019 19.5N 111.5W WEAK
00UTC 13.08.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 14.0N 124.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 13.08.2019 14.0N 124.9W WEAK
00UTC 14.08.2019 15.2N 125.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.08.2019 16.0N 127.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.08.2019 16.7N 129.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.08.2019 17.0N 131.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.08.2019 17.2N 134.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.08.2019 17.2N 136.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.08.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 11.4N 153.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.08.2019 11.7N 154.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.08.2019 12.8N 156.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.08.2019 13.4N 158.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.08.2019 13.5N 161.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.08.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 10.8N 168.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.08.2019 11.3N 169.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.08.2019 12.6N 170.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.08.2019 13.5N 172.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.08.2019 15.6N 174.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.08.2019 16.6N 178.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.08.2019 17.3N 178.3E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.08.2019 17.5N 175.7E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 12.8N 92.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.08.2019 12.8N 92.8W WEAK
00UTC 18.08.2019 12.7N 94.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.08.2019 12.5N 94.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 121555

>

2019-08-12 15:50

WTPN31 PHNC 121600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09E (HENRIETTE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09E (HENRIETTE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 19.5N 111.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 111.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 20.2N 113.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 20.9N 116.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 21.4N 118.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
121600Z POSITION NEAR 19.7N 112.4W.
12AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 09E (HENRIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
843 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 122200Z, 130400Z, 131000Z AND 131600Z.
//
NNNN

>

2019-08-12 14:35

WTPZ44 KNHC 121433 RRA
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092019
900 AM MDT MON AUG 12 2019

HENRIETTE IS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE, WITH MICROWAVE AND
FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALING A LOW LEVEL CENTER
THAT IS NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE
OVERALL PRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS, AND THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT
35 KT. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWING A
VERY SMALL AREA OF 30-35 KT WINDS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE CIRCULATION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/10 KT. HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THIS GENERAL MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT IS STEERED BY A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE. A TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS THE
SYSTEM WEAKENS AND BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 24
HOURS, DUE TO A MORE SOUTHWARD INITIAL POSITION. BEYOND 24 HOURS,
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY NEAR THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF THE CONSENSUS AIDS.

NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LOW LEVEL CENTER NEAR THE EDGE
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION INTO TONIGHT, PREVENTING ANY FURTHER
STRENGTHENING. BY 24 HOURS, THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE 26
C SST ISOTHERM AND MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. THIS SHOULD
CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO LOSE ITS CONVECTION AND WEAKEN ON TUESDAY, WITH
THE SYSTEM LIKELY BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE

>

2019-08-12 14:34

WTPZ44 KNHC 121433
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092019
900 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2019

Henriette is a sheared tropical cyclone, with microwave and
first-light visible satellite imagery revealing a low level center
that is near the northeastern edge of the deep convection. The
overall presentation of the cyclone has changed little over the past
several hours, and therefore the initial intensity is being held at
35 kt. This is in agreement with an earlier ASCAT pass showing a
very small area of 30-35 kt winds over the northwestern portion of
the circulation.

The initial motion is 295/10 kt. Henriette is expected to continue
this general motion for the next 24 hours as it is steered by a
mid-level ridge that extends from northern Mexico to the north of
the cyclone. A turn to the west is expected on Tuesday as the
system weakens and becomes steered by the low-level flow. The
official forecast is slightly south of the previous one through 24
hours, due to a more southward initial position. Beyond 24 hours,
the official forecast is very near the previous one, and near the
middle of the consensus aids.

Northeasterly shear and dry air over the northern portion of the
cyclone should continue to keep the low level center near the edge
of the deep convection into tonight, preventing any further
strengthening. By 24 hours, the cyclone is forecast to cross the 26
C SST isotherm and move into a more stable airmass. This should
cause the cyclone to lose its convection and weaken on Tuesday, with
the system likely becoming a remnant low by Tuesday night. The
official intensity forecast is close to the previous one, and is in
agreement with the various dynamical and consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 19.7N 112.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 20.2N 113.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 20.9N 116.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 21.4N 118.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

>

2019-08-12 14:34

WTPZ34 KNHC 121432
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092019
900 AM MDT MON AUG 12 2019

...HENRIETTE MAINTAINS INTENSITY BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY
TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 112.2W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST. HENRIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H) AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING BY TUESDAY AND DEGENERATE
INTO A REMNANT LOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 PM MDT.

..
FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

>

2019-08-12 14:34

WTPZ24 KNHC 121431
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092019
1500 UTC MON AUG 12 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 112.2W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 112.2W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 111.7W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 20.2N 113.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 20.9N 116.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 21.4N 118.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 112.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

..
FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

>

2019-08-12 08:59

WTPN31 PHNC 121000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09E (HENRIETTE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09E (HENRIETTE) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 19.3N 110.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 110.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 20.2N 112.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 21.0N 114.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 21.7N 116.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 22.0N 120.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
121000Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 111.1W.
12AUG19. TROPICAL STORM 09E (HENRIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 881 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 120600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121600Z, 122200Z, 130400Z
AND 131000Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-08-12 08:38

WTPZ44 KNHC 120836 RRA
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092019
300 AM MDT MON AUG 12 2019

DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO BURST OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE CYCLONE OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS SHEARED WITH THE
CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS, A
COUPLE OF ASCAT PASSES HAVE SHOWN A VERY SMALL AREA OF 30-35 KT
WINDS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. THESE
WINDS EXTEND NO MORE THAN ABOUT 15-20 N MI FROM THE CENTER, BUT
BASED ON THESE DATA THE INITIAL WIND SPEED HAS BEEN INCREASED TO
35 KT. HENRIETTE BECOMES THE EIGHTH NAMED STORM IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC BASIN THIS SEASON.

THE ASCAT DATA ALSO ASSISTED IN LOCATING THE CENTER THIS MORNING,
AND RECENT FIXES SHOW THAT HENRIETTE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OR 295/12 KT. THE TROPICAL STORM SHOULD MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO. AS HENRIETTE
WEAKENS, IT IS LIKELY TO TURN WESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
THROUGH 36 HOURS, BUT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD AT 48 HOURS TO BE
CLOSER TO THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS AIDS.

HENRIETTE IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO STRENGTHEN MUCH MORE. ALTHOUGH THE
SYSTEM IS PREDICTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND WITHIN AN AREA OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR TODAY, NEARBY DRY MID-LEVEL
AIR IS LIKELY TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. BY TUESDAY
MORNING, HENRIETTE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A
MORE STABLE AIRMASS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING, AND THE

>

2019-08-12 08:38

WTPZ34 KNHC 120835
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092019
300 AM MDT MON AUG 12 2019

...HENRIETTE FORMS BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 110.9W
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 110.9 WEST. HENRIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H). A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY TUESDAY, AND HENRIETTE IS PREDICTED TO BECOME
A REMNANT LOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

HENRIETTE IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 AM MDT.

..
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-08-12 08:38

WTPZ24 KNHC 120835
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092019
0900 UTC MON AUG 12 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 110.9W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 110.9W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 110.4W

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 20.2N 112.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 21.0N 114.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 21.7N 116.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 22.0N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 110.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z

..
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-08-12 08:37

WTPZ44 KNHC 120836
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092019
300 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2019

Deep convection has continued to burst over the western portion of
the cyclone overnight. Although the system is sheared with the
center located near the northeastern edge of the convective mass, a
couple of ASCAT passes have shown a very small area of 30-35 kt
winds over the northwestern portion of the circulation. These
winds extend no more than about 15-20 n mi from the center, but
based on these data the initial wind speed has been increased to
35 kt. Henriette becomes the eighth named storm in the eastern
Pacific basin this season.

The ASCAT data also assisted in locating the center this morning,
and recent fixes show that Henriette continues to move west-
northwestward or 295/12 kt. The tropical storm should move
west-northwestward around the southwestern portion of a deep-layer
ridge that extends westward from northern Mexico. As Henriette
weakens, it is likely to turn westward within the low-level flow.
The updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory
through 36 hours, but has been adjusted southward at 48 hours to be
closer to the various consensus aids.

Henriette is not anticipated to strengthen much more. Although the
system is predicted to remain over warm waters and within an area of
light to moderate northeasterly shear today, nearby dry mid-level
air is likely to prevent significant strengthening. By Tuesday
morning, Henriette will be moving over cooler waters and into a
more stable airmass. This should lead to weakening, and the
cyclone is predicted to degenerate into a remnant low within
48 hours, with dissipation occurring shortly thereafter.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 19.5N 110.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 20.2N 112.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 21.0N 114.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 21.7N 116.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 22.0N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-08-12 03:17

WTPN31 PHNC 120400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09E (NINE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09E (NINE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 18.7N 109.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 109.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 19.4N 111.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 20.3N 113.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 21.3N 115.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 22.1N 117.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 23.7N 123.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
120400Z POSITION NEAR 18.9N 109.9W.
12AUG19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09E (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
942 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 120000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121000Z, 121600Z, 122200Z AND
130400Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-08-12 02:54

WTPZ44 KNHC 120251 RRA
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092019
900 PM MDT SUN AUG 11 2019

THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT THE NHC HAS BEEN TRACKING THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS FINALLY DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE
CIRCULATION AND ENOUGH ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. A LATE-ARRIVING 1716Z ASCAT-C SCATTEROMETER
PASS INDICATED THE SURFACE WIND FIELD WAS POSSIBLY CLOSED AT THAT
TIME, BUT SINCE THEN DEEP CONVECTION WITH TOPS OF -75C TO -80C HAVE
PERSISTED NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER,
SUGGESTING THAT A LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS LIKELY CLOSED OFF NOW. DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T1.5/25 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB,
BUT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT BASED ON 30-31 KT WINDS
INDICATED IN THE AFOREMENTIONED SCATTEROMETER DATA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 295/12
KT, BASED PRIMARILY ON SCATTEROMETER AND PASSIVE MICROWAVE FIXES.
THE SMALL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS UNTIL
DISSIPATION OCCURS. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES NEAR THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, BETWEEN THE TVCE CONSENSUS MODEL
AND THE ECMWF-ENSEMBLE MEAN MODEL.

THE SMALL CYCLONE ONLY HAS ABOUT 36 HOURS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE THE
SYSTEM MOVES OVER SUB-26 DEG C SSTS. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LOW
AT LESS THAN 10 KT FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO, EVEN DECREASING TO
NEAR 5 KT IN 24-36 H, WHICH WOULD NORMALLY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, INTERMITTENT INTRUSIONS OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR

>

2019-08-12 02:53

WTPZ44 KNHC 120251
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092019
900 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2019

The broad low pressure system that the NHC has been tracking the
past several days has finally developed a well-defined surface
circulation and enough organized deep convection to be classified as
a tropical depression. A late-arriving 1716Z ASCAT-C scatterometer
pass indicated the surface wind field was possibly closed at that
time, but since then deep convection with tops of -75C to -80C have
persisted near and to the west of the mid-level circulation center,
suggesting that a low-level center has likely closed off now. Dvorak
satellite intensity estimates are T1.5/25 kt from both TAFB and SAB,
but the initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on 30-31 kt winds
indicated in the aforementioned scatterometer data.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward or 295/12
kt, based primarily on scatterometer and passive microwave fixes.
The small cyclone is expected to move west-northwestward around the
southern periphery of a deep-layer ridge for the next 3 days until
dissipation occurs. The NHC track forecast lies near the southern
portion of the guidance envelope, between the TVCE consensus model
and the ECMWF-ensemble mean model.

The small cyclone only has about 36 hours to strengthen before the
system moves over sub-26 deg C SSTs. The shear is forecast to be low
at less than 10 kt for the next 72 hours or so, even decreasing to
near 5 kt in 24-36 h, which would normally result in significant
development. However, intermittent intrusions of dry mid-level air
are expected to disrupt the typical intensification process, thus
only modest strengthening is forecast through 36 h, after which
much cooler waters will induce a weakening trend. The official
intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the HCCA and IVCN
intensity consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 18.9N 109.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 19.4N 111.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 20.3N 113.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 21.3N 115.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 22.1N 117.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 15/0000Z 23.7N 123.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-08-12 02:50

WTPZ34 KNHC 120248
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092019
900 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2019

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 109.8W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical
Depression Nine-E was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude
109.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near
14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue
through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening will be possible for the next day or so,
and the depression could become a tropical storm on Monday.
Weakening is expected on Tuesday and the system forecast to become
a remnant low by late Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-08-12 02:50

WTPZ24 KNHC 120247
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092019
0300 UTC MON AUG 12 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 109.8W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 109.8W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 109.2W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 19.4N 111.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 20.3N 113.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.3N 115.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 22.1N 117.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 23.7N 123.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 109.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

..
FORECASTER STEWART

>