Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for DORIAN-19
in Canada, United States, Bahamas

Global Telecommunication Service

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Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

2019-09-09 02:45

WTNT45 KNHC 090243
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Discussion Number 64
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 08 2019

The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian is now located northeast
of Newfoundland over the Labrador Sea where sea-surface temperatures
are less than 10 deg C. No significant convection exists within 120
nmi of the center and, thus, Dorian has become fully extratropical.
Therefore, this is the last advisory on this system.

The post-tropical cyclone is now moving east-northeastward or 060/21
kt. This general motion should continue through Tuesday or until the
cyclone is absorbed by a larger extratropical low.

The NOAA Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) once again provided guidance
on the intensity and wind radii forecasts, and initial 12-ft seas
radii. The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to gradually weaken
through Tuesday or until it is absorbed by a larger low.

Key Messages:

1. Dorian will continue to cause some impacts across portions
Atlantic Canada into early Monday morning. Storm surge impacts will
gradually subside over portions of the northeastern Gulf of St.
Lawrence and western Newfoundland. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts
will continue over portions of southeastern Newfoundland into early
Monday but should end by late Monday morning. Refer to information
from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for more information on these
hazards.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 52.1N 53.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 09/1200Z 53.6N 48.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 10/0000Z 55.1N 41.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 10/1200Z 56.6N 31.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-09 02:44

WTNT35 KNHC 090242
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Advisory Number 64
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 08 2019

...POST-TROPICAL DORIAN MOVES OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE
LABRADOR SEA AND BECOMES FULLY EXTRATROPICAL...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...52.1N 53.4W
ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM N OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Canadian Hurricane Center has discontinued all tropical cyclone
warnings for Atlantic Canada.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Dorian was located near latitude 52.1 North, longitude 53.4 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near
24 mph (39 km/h) and this motion is forecast to continue through
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the post-tropical
cyclone Dorian will continue to move away from Atlantic Canada
through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
post-tropical cyclone is forecast to be absorbed by a larger low
pressure system on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts will continue across portions
of southeastern Newfoundland until early Monday and then diminish by
late Monday morning.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge along the northeastern Gulf of St. Lawrence
and the West Coast of Newfoundland will continue to subside through
Monday morning.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of
less than 1 inch across far eastern Quebec into Newfoundland and
Labrador.

SURF: Large swells are affecting the coast of Atlantic Canada, and
they will continue to affect that area during the next couple of
days. Swells along the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of the
U.S. will continue for another day or so. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-09 02:43

WTNT25 KNHC 090241
TCMAT5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 64
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
0300 UTC MON SEP 09 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER HAS DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL CYCLONE
WARNINGS FOR ATLANTIC CANADA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 52.1N 53.4W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 90SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT.......360NE 330SE 180SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 840SE 720SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 52.1N 53.4W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 51.6N 54.8W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 53.6N 48.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...420NE 390SE 300SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 55.1N 41.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...420NE 360SE 360SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 56.6N 31.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...300NE 360SE 360SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 52.1N 53.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-09-08 23:38

WTNT35 KNHC 082336
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 63A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
800 PM AST Sun Sep 08 2019

...POST-TROPICAL DORIAN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE IT MOVES ACROSS
NEWFOUNDLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN LABRADOR...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...51.5N 55.5W
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM ENE OF ST. ANTHONY NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Anguille to Fogo Island
* Mutton Bay to Mary's Harbour

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian
was located near latitude 51.5 North, longitude 55.5 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37
km/h) and this motion is forecast to continue tonight. A motion
toward the east-northeast is expected Monday through Tuesday. On
the forecast track, the center of the post-tropical cyclone will
move off of the northern coast of Newfoundland shortly, then move
farther away from Atlantic Canada tonight and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. The post-tropical cyclone should continue to
weaken, and it is forecast to be absorbed by another low pressure
system on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 355 miles (575 km)
from the center. St. John's, Newfoundland, recently reported
sustained winds of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust of 47 mph (76 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on surface observations is
estimated to be 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area this evening. Winds will diminish by early Monday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely in the northeastern
Gulf of St. Lawrence and the West Coast of Newfoundland.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 1
to 2 inches across far eastern Quebec into Newfoundland and
Labrador.

SURF: Large swells are affecting the coast of Atlantic Canada, and
they will continue to affect that area during the next couple of
days. Swells along the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of the
U.S. will continue for another day or so. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-08 20:42

WTNT45 KNHC 082040
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Discussion Number 63
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 PM AST Sun Sep 08 2019

The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian is over the northeastern
Gulf of St. Lawrence. An ASCAT-B overpass several hours ago showed
winds of 55-60 kt to the southeast of the center, and much of this
area of wind has moved onshore in western Newfoundland. Based on
these developments, the initial intensity is lowered to 55 kt.
The global models continue to forecast Dorian to steadily weaken
until the cyclone is absorbed by another large extratropical low to
its north between 36-48 h. The Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) once
again provided guidance on the forecast intensity and wind radii.

The cyclone continues moving northeastward or 050/20 kt. This
general motion should continue through tonight, with the center
of Dorian passing near or over northwestern Newfoundland or eastern
Labrador on its way into the far north Atlantic. This should be
followed by an east-northeastward motion for the remainder of the
cyclone's life. The dynamical model guidance continues to be in
good agreement, and the new official track is again an update of the
previous advisory.

The National Hurricane Center will continue to issue advisories on
Dorian as a post-tropical cyclone until the threat to eastern
Canada has ended.

Key Messages:

1. Dorian will continue to have significant impacts in portions
of eastern Canada tonight. Dangerous storm surge impacts are likely
in portions of the northeastern Gulf of St. Lawrence and western
Newfoundland. Tropical-storm-force should continue over portions of
Newfoundland. Refer to information from the Canadian Hurricane
Centre for more information on these hazards.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 51.0N 57.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 09/0600Z 53.2N 52.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 09/1800Z 55.2N 45.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 10/0600Z 56.8N 37.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-08 20:40

WTNT35 KNHC 082038
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Advisory Number 63
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 PM AST Sun Sep 08 2019

...POST-TROPICAL DORIAN WEAKENS BELOW HURRICANE FORCE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...51.0N 57.5W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM WSW OF ST. ANTHONY NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Canadian Hurricane Center has changed the Hurricane Warning to
a Tropical Storm Warning for the west coast of Newfoundland, and
has discontinued all warnings for Newfoundland south of Cape
Anguille.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Anguille to Fogo Island
* Mutton Bay to Mary's Harbour

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian
was located near latitude 51.0 North, longitude 57.5 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 23 mph
(37 km/h) and this motion is forecast to continue tonight. A motion
toward the east-northeast is expected Monday through Tuesday. On
the forecast track, the center of the post-tropical cyclone should
move near or over northern Newfoundland or eastern Labrador during
the next few hours, then move away from Atlantic Canada later
tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. The post-tropical cyclone should continue to
weaken, and it is forecast to be absorbed by another low pressure
system on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 355 miles (575 km)
from the center. Daniel's Harbor, Newfoundland, recently reported
sustained winds of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust of 63 mph (101 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area tonight.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely in the northeastern
Gulf of St. Lawrence and the West Coast of Newfoundland.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 1
to 2 inches across far eastern Quebec into Newfoundland and
Labrador.

SURF: Large swells are affecting the coast of Atlantic Canada, and
they will continue to affect that area during the next couple of
days. Swells along the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of the
U.S. will continue for another day or so. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-08 20:39

WTNT25 KNHC 082037
TCMAT5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 63
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
2100 UTC SUN SEP 08 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND...AND
HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR NEWFOUNDLAND SOUTH OF CAPE
ANGUILLE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE ANGUILLE TO FOGO ISLAND
* MUTTON BAY TO MARY'S HARBOUR

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 51.0N 57.5W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 70 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW.
34 KT.......300NE 310SE 210SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 900SE 780SW 220NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 51.0N 57.5W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 50.6N 58.5W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 53.2N 52.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 90SW 0NW.
34 KT...390NE 390SE 300SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 55.2N 45.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...420NE 420SE 360SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 56.8N 37.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...300NE 360SE 360SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 51.0N 57.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 09/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2019-09-08 17:38

WTNT35 KNHC 081736
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 62A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
200 PM AST Sun Sep 08 2019

...CENTER OF DORIAN NOW MOVING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF ST.
LAWRENCE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...50.5N 58.7W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF CHEVERY QUEBEC
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM NNE OF CAPE ST. GEORGE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Western Newfoundland from Indian Harbour to Hawke's Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Stone's Cove to Indian Harbour
* Hawke's Bay to Fogo Island
* Mutton Bay to Mary's Harbour

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian
was located near latitude 50.5 North, longitude 58.7 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 25 mph
(41 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during
the next couple of days. On this track, Dorian will be moving near
or over northwestern Newfoundland or eastern Labrador this afternoon
and then enter the North Atlantic this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. These winds are occurring mainly over water near the west
coast of Newfoundland. The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to
drop below hurricane strength after passing Newfoundland later
today, and it is forecast to be absorbed by another large low
pressure system in a couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345
miles (555 km). Stephenville, Newfoundland, recently reported
sustained winds of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a wind gust of 69 mph
(111 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Hurricane
Warning area in Newfoundland at this time, and hurricane conditions
are expected during the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area today.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely in the Gulf of St.
Lawrence, the Southwest Coast of Newfoundland, and Eastern Nova
Scotia.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of
1 to 2 inches across far eastern Quebec into Newfoundland and
Labrador.

SURF: Large swells are affecting the coast of Atlantic Canada, and
they will continue to affect that area during the next few days.
Swells along the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of the U.S.
will continue for another day or so. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-08 14:55

WTNT45 KNHC 081453
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Discussion Number 62
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 08 2019

The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian is now over the
northeastern Gulf of St. Lawrence. There are no observations from
the area southeast of the center where the strongest winds are
likely to be. However, the winds at the nearby land stations are
gradually decreasing. Based on this and some decay in the cloud
pattern, the initial intensity is lowered to 65 kt. The global
models forecast Dorian to steadily weaken until the cyclone is
absorbed by another large extratropical low to its north between
36-48 h. The Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) once again provided
guidance on the forecast intensity and wind radii.

The cyclone is now moving northeastward or 035/22 kt. This general
motion should continue through this evening, with the center of
Dorian passing near or over northwestern Newfoundland or eastern
Labrador on its way into the far north Atlantic. This should be
followed by an east-northeastward motion for the remainder of the
cyclone's life. The dynamical model guidance continues to be in
good agreement, and the new official track is again an update of the
previous advisory.

The National Hurricane Center will continue to issue advisories on
Dorian as a post-tropical cyclone until the threat to eastern
Canada has ended.

Key Messages:

1. Dorian will continue to have significant impacts in portions
of eastern Canada today. Dangerous storm surge impacts are likely
in portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence, southwestern Newfoundland,
and eastern Nova Scotia. Hurricane-force winds are expected to
spread into western Newfoundland this afternoon. Refer to
information from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for more information
on these hazards.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 50.0N 59.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 09/0000Z 52.3N 55.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 09/1200Z 54.7N 49.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 10/0000Z 56.2N 41.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-08 14:54

WTNT35 KNHC 081451
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Advisory Number 62
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 08 2019

...CENTER OF DORIAN MOVING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...50.0N 59.4W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM ESE OF CAPE WHITTLE QUEBEC
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF CAPE ST. GEORGE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Canadian Hurricane Center has discontinued the Hurricane
Warning for Nova Scotia. The Canadian Hurricane Center has also
discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning and the Hurricane Watch for
the Magdalen Islands and the Tropical Storm Warning for Prince
Edward Island.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Western Newfoundland from Indian Harbour to Hawke's Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Stone's Cove to Indian Harbour
* Hawke's Bay to Fogo Island
* Mutton Bay to Mary's Harbour

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Dorian was located near latitude 50.0 North, longitude 59.4 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 25 mph
(41 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during
the next couple of days. On this track, Dorian will be moving near
or over northwestern Newfoundland or eastern Labrador later today
and then enter the North Atlantic this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. These winds are occurring mainly over water. The post-
tropical cyclone is forecast to drop below hurricane strength after
passing Newfoundland later today, and it is forecast to be absorbed
by another large low pressure system in a couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345
miles (555 km). Stephenville, Newfoundland, recently reported
sustained winds of 51 mph (81 km/h) and a wind gust of 62 mph
(100 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Hurricane
Warning area in Newfoundland at this time, and hurricane conditions
are expected later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
the Tropical Storm Warning area today.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely in the Gulf of St.
Lawrence, the Southwest Coast of Newfoundland, and Eastern Nova
Scotia.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of
1 to 2 inches across far eastern Quebec into Newfoundland and
Labrador.

SURF: Large swells are affecting the coast of Atlantic Canada, and
they will continue to affect that area during the next few days.
Swells along the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of the U.S.
will continue for another day or so. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-08 14:53

WTNT25 KNHC 081451
TCMAT5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 62
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
1500 UTC SUN SEP 08 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE
WARNING FOR NOVA SCOTIA. THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER HAS ALSO
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR
THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PRINCE
EDWARD ISLAND.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM INDIAN HARBOUR TO HAWKE'S BAY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* STONE'S COVE TO INDIAN HARBOUR
* HAWKE'S BAY TO FOGO ISLAND
* MUTTON BAY TO MARY'S HARBOUR

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 50.0N 59.4W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW.
50 KT.......140NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT.......300NE 300SE 210SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 900SE 780SW 220NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 50.0N 59.4W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 49.4N 60.4W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 52.3N 55.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 120SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT...390NE 360SE 300SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 54.7N 49.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...390NE 360SE 360SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 56.2N 41.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...300NE 360SE 360SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 50.0N 59.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 08/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2019-09-08 11:53

WTNT35 KNHC 081151
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 61A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
800 AM AST Sun Sep 08 2019

...CENTER OF DORIAN PASSING EAST OF ANTICOSTI ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...49.4N 60.6W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ENE OF HEATH POINT ANTICOSTI ISLAND
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM NW OF CAPE ST GEORGE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Eastern Nova Scotia from Ecum Secum to Brule
* Western Newfoundland from Indian Harbour to Hawke's Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Magdalen Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Prince Edward Island
* Magdalen Islands
* Stone's Cove to Indian Harbour
* Hawke's Bay to Fogo Island
* Mutton Bay to Mary's Harbour

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian
was located near latitude 49.4 North, longitude 60.6 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 26
mph (43 km/h), and this general motion with a turn to the northeast
is expected during the next couple of days. On this track, Dorian
will be moving near or over western Newfoundland later today and
then enter the North Atlantic this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. These winds are occurring mainly over water. The post-
tropical cyclone is forecast to drop below hurricane strength after
passing Newfoundland later today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345
miles (555 km). A sustained wind of 55 mph (89 km/h) with a gust
to 73 mph (117 km/h) was recently reported at Heath Point on
Anticosti Island.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 961 mb (28.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are still occuring
over portions of Nova Scotia. Hurricane conditions are expected
elsewhere in the Hurricane Warning area in Newfoundland today.
Hurricane conditions are also possible in the Hurricane Watch area
through this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
Tropical Storm Warning area today.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely in the Gulf of St.
Lawrence, the Southwest Coast of Newfoundland, and Eastern Nova
Scotia.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through tonight:

New Brunswick...2 to 4 inches
Newfoundland and far eastern Quebec...1 to 2 inches

These rainfall amounts could result in flash flooding.

SURF: Large swells are affecting the coast of Atlantic Canada, and
they will continue to affect that area during the next few days.
Swells along the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of the U.S.
will continue for another day or so. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-08 08:42

WTNT45 KNHC 080840
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Discussion Number 61
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM AST Sun Sep 08 2019

The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian passed very near the
Magdalen Islands around 0600 UTC, and is now between the west coast
of Newfoundland and Anticosti Island. Earlier ASCAT data indicated
that the wind field remains quite large, but the peak winds have
decreased since yesterday. Therefore, the initial intensity has
been set at 70 kt. Dorian is expected to remain a powerful storm
through this afternoon, but the global models show steady weakening
after the center moves northeast of Newfoundland tonight.

The cyclone is moving north-northeastward or 025/23 kt. Dorian
should continue north-northeastward today, then turn east-
northeastward over the North Atlantic as it remains embedded
within the mid-latitude westerlies. The dynamical model guidance
continues to be in good agreement, and the new official track is
essentially an update of the previous advisory. The post-tropical
cyclone should should be absorbed by another extratropical low over
the North Atlantic in 2 to 3 days. The Ocean Prediction Center
(OPC) once again provided guidance on the forecast intensity and
wind radii.

The National Hurricane Center will continue to issue advisories on
Dorian as a post-tropical cyclone until the threat to eastern
Canada has ended.

Key Messages:

1. Dorian will continue to have significant impacts in portions
of eastern Canada today. Dangerous storm surge impacts are likely in
portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence, southwestern Newfoundland and
eastern Nova Scotia. Hurricane-force winds are still occurring in
portions of eastern Nova Scotia and are spreading into western
Newfoundland. Refer to information from the Canadian Hurricane
Centre for more information on these hazards.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 48.5N 61.1W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 08/1800Z 50.9N 58.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 09/0600Z 53.6N 52.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 09/1800Z 55.7N 45.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 10/0600Z 57.0N 37.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-08 08:41

WTNT35 KNHC 080839
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Advisory Number 61
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM AST Sun Sep 08 2019

...POWERFUL DORIAN HEADING TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...48.5N 61.1W
ABOUT 80 MI...135 KM W OF CAPE ST GEORGE NEWFOUNDLAND
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM NNE OF MADGALEN ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Canadian Hurricane Center has discontinued all warnings for
Nova Scotia west of Ecum Secum on the southern coast and west of
Brule along the northern coast. All warnings have also been
discontinued for New Brunswick. The Hurricane Watch for Prince
Edward Island has also been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Eastern Nova Scotia from Ecum Secum to Brule
* Western Newfoundland from Indian Harbour to Hawke's Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Magdalen Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Prince Edward Island
* Magdalen Islands
* Stone's Cove to Indian Harbour
* Hawke's Bay to Fogo Island
* Mutton Bay to Mary's Harbour

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian
was located near latitude 48.5 North, longitude 61.1 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 26
mph (43 km/h), and this general motion with a turn to the northeast
is expected during the next couple of days. On this track, Dorian
will be moving near or over western Newfoundland later today and
then enter the North Atlantic this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. These winds are occurring mainly over water. The post-
tropical cyclone is forecast to drop below hurricane strength after
passing Newfoundland later today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345
miles (555 km). A sustained wind of 62 mph (100 km/h) with a gust
to 79 mph (128 km/h) was recently reported at Heath Point on
Anticosti Island. A wind gust to 69 mph (109 km/h) was recently
observed at North Mountain in Nova Scotia.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are still occuring
over portions of Nova Scotia. Hurricane conditions are also expected
elsewhere in the Hurricane Warning area in Newfoundland today.
Hurricane conditions are also possible in the Hurricane Watch area
through this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
Tropical Storm Warning area today.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely in the Gulf of St.
Lawrence, the Southwest Coast of Newfoundland, and Eastern Nova
Scotia.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through tonight:

New Brunswick...2 to 4 inches
Newfoundland and far eastern Quebec...1 to 2 inches

These rainfall amounts could result in flash flooding.

SURF: Large swells are affecting the coast of Atlantic Canada, and
they will continue to affect that area during the next few days.
Swells along the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of the U.S.
will continue for another day or so. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-08 08:40

WTNT25 KNHC 080838
TCMAT5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 61
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
0900 UTC SUN SEP 08 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR
NOVA SCOTIA WEST OF ECUM SECUM ON THE SOUTHERN COAST AND WEST OF
BRULE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST. ALL WARNINGS HAVE ALSO BEEN
DISCONTINUED FOR NEW BRUNSWICK. THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR PRINCE
EDWARD ISLAND HAS ALSO BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM TO BRULE
* WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM INDIAN HARBOUR TO HAWKE'S BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAGDALEN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* MAGDALEN ISLANDS
* STONE'S COVE TO INDIAN HARBOUR
* HAWKE'S BAY TO FOGO ISLAND
* MUTTON BAY TO MARY'S HARBOUR

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 48.5N 61.1W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 23 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW.
50 KT.......140NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT.......300NE 300SE 210SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 600SE 660SW 220NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 48.5N 61.1W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 47.6N 61.9W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 50.9N 58.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
50 KT... 90NE 120SE 100SW 60NW.
34 KT...360NE 320SE 300SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 53.6N 52.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 120SE 60SW 30NW.
34 KT...300NE 320SE 240SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 55.7N 45.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...300NE 320SE 300SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 57.0N 37.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 300SE 330SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 48.5N 61.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 08/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-09-08 05:53

WTNT35 KNHC 080551
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 60A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
200 AM AST Sun Sep 08 2019

...DORIAN BRINGING HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS TO A LARGE PORTION OF
ATLANTIC CANADA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...47.5 61.8W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM N OF MADGALEN ISLANDS
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM WSW OF CAPE ST GEORGE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Eastern Nova Scotia from Lower East Pubnico to Brule
* Western Newfoundland from Indian Harbour to Hawke's Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Prince Edward Island
* Magdalen Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Prince Edward Island
* Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to north of Lower East
Pubnico
* Fundy National Park to Shediac
* Stone's Cove to Indian Harbour
* Hawke's Bay to Fogo Island
* Mutton Bay to Mary's Harbour
* Magdalen Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian
was located near latitude 47.5 North, longitude 61.8 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 26
mph (43 km/h), and this general motion with a turn to the northeast
is expected during the next couple of days. On this track, Dorian
will be moving near or over western Newfoundland later today and
then enter the North Atlantic this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. These winds are occurring mainly over water. The post-
tropical cyclone is forecast to drop below hurricane strength on
Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310
miles (500 km). An observing site at Wreckhouse along the
southwestern coast of Newfoundland recently measured a sustained
wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) with a gust to 73 mph (117 km/h). A
sustained wind of 48 mph (77 km/h) with a gust to 62 mph (100 km/h)
was recently reported at North Point on Price Edward Island. A
sustained wind of 60 mph (97 km/h) with a gust to 78 mph (125 km/h)
was also recently observed at Heath Point on Anticosti Island.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are still occuring
over portions of Nova Scotia. Hurricane conditions are also expected
elsewhere in the Hurricane Warning area today. Hurricane conditions
are also possible in the Hurricane Watch area through this morning.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning
area today.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely in the Gulf of St.
Lawrence, the Southwest Coast of Newfoundland, and Eastern Nova
Scotia.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Sunday Night:

Nova Scotia...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches.
New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island...2 to 4 inches
Newfoundland and far eastern Quebec...1 to 2 inches

These rainfall amounts could result in flash flooding.

SURF: Large swells are affecting the coast of Atlantic Canada, and
they will continue to affect that area during the next few days.
Swells along the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of the U.S.
will continue for a couple of more days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-08 02:35

WTNT45 KNHC 080233
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Discussion Number 60
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019

The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian made landfall near
Sambro Creek, Nova Scotia several hours ago. Since then, the
powerful cyclone has continued to move rapidly to the
north-northeast and is now just east of Prince Edward Island. The
wind field has expanded considerably, and the cyclone is producing
tropical-storm-force winds over an extensive area of the Canadian
Maritimes. The powerful cyclone is expected to continue with a
large wind field, but gradual weakening is anticipated as forecast
by most of the global models.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the north-
northeast at 23 kt. Since the cyclone is embedded within the fast
extratropical westerly flow, this general track with a turn to
the northeast is anticipated until dissipation in about 2 days.
Track guidance is in very good agreement with this motion, and the
NHC forecast follows the guidance envelope.

The Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) provided guidance to prepare
this forecast.

The National Hurricane Center will continue to issue advisories on
Dorian as a post-tropical cyclone until the threat to eastern
Canada has ended.

Key Messages:

1. Dorian will continue to have significant impacts in portions
of eastern Canada overnight and Sunday. Dangerous storm surge
impacts are likely in portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence,
southwestern Newfoundland and eastern Nova Scotia. Hurricane-force
winds are still occurring in Nova Scotia and are forecast to occur
in Newfoundland overnight. Refer to information from the Canadian
Hurricane Centre for more information on these hazards.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 46.3N 62.1W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 08/1200Z 49.0N 60.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 09/0000Z 52.0N 54.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 09/1200Z 54.5N 48.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 10/0000Z 56.0N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-08 02:35

WTNT35 KNHC 080232
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Advisory Number 60
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019

...DORIAN WREAKING HAVOC OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...
...HALF A MILLION CUSTOMERS WITH NO POWER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...46.3N 62.1W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM S OF MADGALEN ISLANDS
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM SW OF CAPE ST GEORGE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Eastern Nova Scotia from Lower East Pubnico to Brule
* Western Newfoundland from Indian Harbour to Hawke's Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Prince Edward Island
* Magdalen Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Prince Edward Island
* Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to north of Lower East
Pubnico
* Fundy National Park to Shediac
* Stone's Cove to Indian Harbour
* Hawke's Bay to Fogo Island
* Mutton Bay to Mary's Harbour
* Magdalen Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Dorian was located near latitude 46.3 North, longitude 62.1 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near
26 mph (43 km/h), and this general motion with a turn to the
northeast is expected during the next couple of days. On this
track, Dorian will be moving near or over western Newfoundland
on Sunday and then enter the North Atlantic late Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. These winds are occcuring mainly over water. The
post-tropical cyclone is forecast to drop below hurricane
strength on Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310
miles (500 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are still occuring
over portions of Nova Scotia. Hurricane conditions are also expected
elsewhere in the Hurricane Warning area overnight and Sunday.
Hurricane conditions are also possible in the Hurricane Watch area
overnight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical
Storm Warning area on Sunday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely in the Gulf of St.
Lawrence, the Southwest Coast of Newfoundland, and Eastern Nova
Scotia.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Sunday Night:

Nova Scotia...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches.
New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island...2 to 4 inches
Newfoundland and far eastern Quebec...1 to 2 inches

These rainfall amounts could result in flash flooding.

SURF: Large swells are affecting the coast of Atlantic Canada, and
they will continue to affect that area during the next few days.
Swells along the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of the U.S.
will continue for a couple of more days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-08 02:34

WTNT25 KNHC 080231
TCMAT5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 60
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
0300 UTC SUN SEP 08 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM LOWER EAST PUBNICO TO BRULE
* WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM INDIAN HARBOUR TO HAWKE'S BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* MAGDALEN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM AVONPORT TO NORTH OF LOWER EAST
PUBNICO
* FUNDY NATIONAL PARK TO SHEDIAC
* STONE'S COVE TO INDIAN HARBOUR
* HAWKE'S BAY TO FOGO ISLAND
* MUTTON BAY TO MARY'S HARBOUR
* MAGDALEN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.3N 62.1W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 23 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 100SE 75SW 0NW.
50 KT.......140NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT.......270NE 240SE 210SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..320NE 600SE 660SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.3N 62.1W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 45.2N 62.9W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 49.0N 60.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW.
50 KT...140NE 170SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT...330NE 300SE 240SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 52.0N 54.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...100NE 110SE 90SW 60NW.
34 KT...320NE 330SE 360SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 54.5N 48.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...300NE 300SE 300SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 56.0N 41.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 300SE 300SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 46.3N 62.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 08/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

>

2019-09-07 23:48

WTNT35 KNHC 072346
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 59A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
800 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019

...DORIAN RACING NORTHEASTWARD OVER NOVA SCOTIA...
...VERY STRONG WINDS AFFECTING MOST OF NOVA SCOTIA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...45.0N 62.9W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM NE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning from East of Bar Harbor to Eastport Maine
has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Eastern Nova Scotia from Lower East Pubnico to Brule
* Western Newfoundland from Indian Harbour to Hawke's Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Prince Edward Island
* Magdalen Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Prince Edward Island
* Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to north of Lower East
Pubnico
* Fundy National Park to Shediac
* Stone's Cove to Indian Harbour
* Hawke's Bay to Fogo Island
* Mutton Bay to Mary's Harbour
* Magdalen Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area in this case within the next 12
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian
was estimated near latitude 45.0 North, longitude 62.9 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is racing northeastward near 30 mph (48 km/h),
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24
hours. After that, a turn toward the east-northeast is expected. On
the forecast track, the center of Dorian should continue to move
over Nova Scotia during the next few hours, then move over the Gulf
of St. Lawrence near Prince Edward Island tonight. The cyclone
should then pass near or over northern Newfoundland and eastern
Labrador late tonight or Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts, and these winds are occuring primarily over water. The
post-tropical cyclone is expected to weaken during the next couple
of days, and it is forecast to drop below hurricane strength by
Sunday morning.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) to
the south of the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 310 miles (500 km). Hart Island, Nova Scotia,
recently reported a wind gust of 76 mph (122 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are expected to
continue over portions of Nova Scotia during the next few
hours. Hurricane conditions are also expected elsewhere in the
Hurricane Warning area later tonight. Hurricane conditions are also
possible in the Hurricane Watch area tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area late
tonight and Sunday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely in the Gulf of St.
Lawrence, the Southwest Coast of Newfoundland, and Eastern Nova
Scotia.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Saturday Night:

Nova Scotia...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches.
New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island...2 to 4 inches
Newfoundland and far eastern Quebec...1 to 2 inches

These rainfall amounts could result in flash flooding.

SURF: Large swells are increasing along the coast in Atlantic
Canada, and they will continue to affect that area during the next
few days. Swells along the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of
the U.S. will continue for a couple of more days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-07 23:08

WTNT65 KNHC 072306
TCUAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
705 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019

...DORIAN MAKES LANDFALL OVER NOVA SCOTIA...

Satellite and surface observations indicate that the center of
Dorian has made landfall at 615 PM AST (2215 UTC) near Sambro Creek
in Nova Scotia, Canada, or about 15 miles (25 km) south of Halifax.
The estimated maximum sustained winds at landfall were 100 mph (155
km/h), and the estimated central pressure was 958 mb (28.29 inches).


SUMMARY OF 705 PM AST...2305 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.7N 63.4W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Blake/Avila

>

2019-09-07 20:47

WTNT45 KNHC 072045
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Discussion Number 59
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that Dorian has
lost tropical cyclone characteristics and is now a hurricane-force
extratropical low. The initial intensity is held at 85 kt based
mainly on the earlier scatterometer data.

The initial motion is 040/26. Strong mid-latitude southwesterly
flow should steer Dorian across Nova Scotia and other portions of
eastern Canada during the next 24-30 h. After that, the cyclone
should turn east-northeastward over the far north Atlantic, with
this motion continuing for the rest of the system's life.

Global model guidance indicates that the post-tropical cyclone
should gradually weaken as it moves across eastern Canada, and the
new intensity forecast brings the winds below hurricane force by 24
h. Additional weakening should then occur until the storm is
absorbed by a large extratropical low to its north.

The National Hurricane Center will continue to issue advisories on
Dorian as a post-tropical cyclone until the threat to eastern
Canada has ended.

Key Messages:

1. Although Dorian has lost tropical cyclone characteristics, it
will have significant impacts in portions of eastern Canada tonight
and Sunday. Dangerous storm surge impacts are likely in portions of
the Gulf of St. Lawrence, southwestern Newfoundland and eastern Nova
Scotia. Hurricane-force winds are also likely in Nova Scotia,
Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland later today and tonight. Refer
to information from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for more
information on these hazards.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 43.9N 63.9W 85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 08/0600Z 47.0N 61.1W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 08/1800Z 50.2N 56.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 09/0600Z 53.0N 50.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 09/1800Z 55.4N 43.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-07 20:46

WTNT35 KNHC 072044
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Advisory Number 59
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019

...DORIAN BECOMES A HURRICANE-FORCE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...CENTER NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...43.9N 63.9W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM ESE OF EASTPORT MAINE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Eastern Nova Scotia from Lower East Pubnico to Brule
* Western Newfoundland from Indian Harbour to Hawke's Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Prince Edward Island
* Magdalen Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Bar Harbor to Eastport ME
* Prince Edward Island
* Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to north of Lower East
Pubnico
* Fundy National Park to Shediac
* Stone's Cove to Indian Harbour
* Hawke's Bay to Fogo Island
* Mutton Bay to Mary's Harbour

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area in this case within the next 12
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian
was located near latitude 43.9 North, longitude 63.9 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 30 mph
(48 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the
next 24 hours. After that, a turn toward the east-northeast is
expected. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian should cross
the coast of Nova Scotia near Halifax during the next few hours,
then move across eastern Nova Scotia into the Gulf of St. Lawrence
near Prince Edward Island tonight. The center should then pass near
or over northern Newfoundland and eastern Labrador late tonight or
Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to weaken during the
next couple of days, and it is forecast to drop below hurricane
strength by Sunday morning.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) to
the south of the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 310 miles (500 km). Osbourne Head, Nova Scotia,
recently reported sustained winds of 68 mph (109 km/h) and a wind
gust of 88 mph (142 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are spreading across much of Nova
Scotia, and hurricane conditions are expected to spread over
portions of Nova Scotia during the next few hours. Hurricane
conditions are also expected elsewhere in the Hurricane Warning
area later tonight. Hurricane conditions are also possible in the
Hurricane Watch area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area tonight and Sunday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning
area in Maine during the next few hours.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely in the Gulf of St.
Lawrence, the Southwest Coast of Newfoundland, and Eastern Nova
Scotia.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Saturday Night:

Far eastern Maine...1 to 3 inches.
Nova Scotia...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches.
New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island...2 to 4 inches
Newfoundland and far eastern Quebec...1 to 2 inches

These rainfall amounts could result in flash flooding.

SURF: Large swells are increasing along the coast in Atlantic
Canada, and they will continue to affect that area during the next
few days. Swells along the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of
the U.S. will continue for a couple of more days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-07 20:46

WTNT25 KNHC 072044
TCMAT5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 59
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
2100 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM LOWER EAST PUBNICO TO BRULE
* WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM INDIAN HARBOUR TO HAWKE'S BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* MAGDALEN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF BAR HARBOR TO EASTPORT ME
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM AVONPORT TO NORTH OF LOWER EAST
PUBNICO
* FUNDY NATIONAL PARK TO SHEDIAC
* STONE'S COVE TO INDIAN HARBOUR
* HAWKE'S BAY TO FOGO ISLAND
* MUTTON BAY TO MARY'S HARBOUR

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COASTS OF THE UNITED
STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.9N 63.9W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 26 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 100SE 90SW 0NW.
50 KT.......170NE 150SE 100SW 90NW.
34 KT.......270NE 240SE 210SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 600SE 720SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.9N 63.9W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.8N 64.6W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 47.0N 61.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW.
50 KT...160NE 150SE 100SW 90NW.
34 KT...300NE 240SE 210SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 50.2N 56.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 80NW.
34 KT...350NE 270SE 240SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 53.0N 50.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW.
34 KT...300NE 240SE 240SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 55.4N 43.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 210SE 180SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.9N 63.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 08/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2019-09-07 17:37

WTNT45 KNHC 071735
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Special Discussion Number 58
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
200 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019

This special advisory is being issued instead of the normal
intermediate advisory to update the intensity and wind radii of
Dorian. A recent ASCAT-B overpass shows a large area of hurricane-
force winds southwest and south of the center of Dorian, with many
vectors of 80 kt or more. This area of wind is likely due to
baroclinic effects during the ongoing extratropical transition.
The initial intensity is being increased to 85 kt and the 12-h
intensity to 75 kt, after which the forecast intensities are the
same as in the previous advisory. Some changes were also made to
the initial and 12-h wind radii based on the scatterometer data.

There is no change to the forecast track from the previous advisory.


Key Messages:

1. Regardless of whether it is a hurricane or a post-tropical
cyclone, Dorian is expected to have a significant impact in portions
of eastern Canada beginning during the next several hours. Dangerous
storm surge impacts are likely in portions of the Gulf of St.
Lawrence, southwestern Newfoundland and eastern Nova Scotia.
Hurricane-force winds are also likely in Nova Scotia, Prince Edward
Island and Newfoundland later today and tonight. Refer to
information from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for more information
on these hazards.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1800Z 42.8N 64.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 45.1N 63.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
24H 08/1200Z 48.9N 59.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 09/0000Z 51.7N 54.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 09/1200Z 54.2N 47.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-07 17:36

WTNT35 KNHC 071734
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Special Advisory Number 58
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
200 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019

...SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATE THAT DORIAN IS STRONGER THAN SHOWN
IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS
AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.8N 64.9W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SE OF EASTPORT MAINE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Eastern Nova Scotia from Lower East Pubnico to Brule
* Western Newfoundland from Indian Harbour to Hawke's Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Prince Edward Island
* Magdalen Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Bar Harbor to Eastport ME
* Prince Edward Island
* Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to north of Lower East
Pubnico
* Fundy National Park to Shediac
* Stone's Cove to Indian Harbour
* Hawke's Bay to Fogo Island
* Mutton Bay to Mary's Harbour

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area in this case within the next 12
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere along the New England coasts of the United
States should monitor the progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 42.8 North, longitude 64.9 West. Dorian is moving
toward the northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h), and a general motion
toward the northeast is expected to continue through Sunday night.
On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to move
across central or eastern Nova Scotia this afternoon or this
evening, pass near or over Prince Edward Island tonight, and then
move near or over portions of Newfoundland and Labrador on Sunday.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds
are now near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. While Dorian is
forecast to weaken and become a post-tropical cyclone during the
next 24 hours, it is expected to maintain hurricane-force winds as
it moves across eastern Canada this afternoon through Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) to
the south of the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 310 miles (500 km). NOAA buoy 44011 to the southwest
of the center recently reported sustained winds of 74 mph (119 km/h)
and a wind gust of 94 mph (151 km/h). A station at Baccarro Point,
Nova Scotia, recently reported sustained winds of 58 mph (93 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions should spread into the warning area
in Maine during the next several hours.

Regardless of whether Dorian is a hurricane or a post-tropical
cyclone, hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland beginning this afternoon, and
they are possible in the Hurricane Watch area by tonight. Tropical
Storm conditions are currently spreading into southwestern Nova
Scotia, and these conditions are expected elsewhere in the Tropical
Storm Warning area in eastern Canada later today and tonight.

STORM SURGE: Storm Surge is likely in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the
Southwest Coast of Newfoundland, and Eastern Nova Scotia.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through tonight:

Far eastern Maine...1 to 3 inches.
Nova Scotia...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches.
New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island...2 to 4 inches.
Newfoundland and far eastern Quebec...1 to 2 inches.

These rainfall amounts could result in flash flooding.

SURF: Large swells are increasing along the coast in Atlantic
Canada, and they will continue to affect that area during the next
few days. Swells along the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of
the U.S. will continue for a couple of more days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-07 17:35

WTNT25 KNHC 071733
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DORIAN SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 58
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
1800 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM LOWER EAST PUBNICO TO BRULE
* WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM INDIAN HARBOUR TO HAWKE'S BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* MAGDALEN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF BAR HARBOR TO EASTPORT ME
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM AVONPORT TO NORTH OF LOWER EAST
PUBNICO
* FUNDY NATIONAL PARK TO SHEDIAC
* STONE'S COVE TO INDIAN HARBOUR
* HAWKE'S BAY TO FOGO ISLAND
* MUTTON BAY TO MARY'S HARBOUR

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COASTS OF THE UNITED
STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.8N 64.9W AT 07/1800Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 25 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 100SE 90SW 0NW.
50 KT.......170NE 150SE 100SW 90NW.
34 KT.......270NE 240SE 210SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..220NE 480SE 330SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.8N 64.9W AT 07/1800Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.9N 66.9W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 45.1N 63.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW.
50 KT...160NE 150SE 100SW 90NW.
34 KT...300NE 240SE 210SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 48.9N 59.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 80NW.
34 KT...350NE 270SE 240SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 51.7N 54.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW.
34 KT...300NE 240SE 240SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 54.2N 47.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...240NE 220SE 180SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.8N 64.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2019-09-07 14:56

WTNT25 KNHC 071453 CCA
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 57...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
1500 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019

CORRECTED 12 H STATUS

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE COAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS...AS WELL AS FOR NANTUCKET AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM LOWER EAST PUBNICO TO BRULE
* WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM INDIAN HARBOUR TO HAWKE'S BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* MAGDALEN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF BAR HARBOR TO EASTPORT ME
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM AVONPORT TO NORTH OF LOWER EAST
PUBNICO
* FUNDY NATIONAL PARK TO SHEDIAC
* STONE'S COVE TO INDIAN HARBOUR
* HAWKE'S BAY TO FOGO ISLAND
* MUTTON BAY TO MARY'S HARBOUR

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COASTS OF THE UNITED
STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.0N 66.0W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 25 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 90SE 60SW 0NW.
50 KT.......120NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT.......270NE 240SE 180SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 540SE 600SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.0N 66.0W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.9N 66.9W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 45.1N 63.0W...OVER NOVA SCOTIA
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 90SE 60SW 0NW.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...300NE 240SE 210SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 48.9N 59.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 80NW.
34 KT...350NE 270SE 240SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 51.7N 54.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW.
34 KT...300NE 240SE 240SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 54.2N 47.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...240NE 220SE 180SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.0N 66.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 07/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2019-09-07 14:54

WTNT45 KNHC 071452
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 57
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 07 2019

Satellite imagery this morning indicates that Dorian is starting
extratropical transition, with cold air clouds entraining into the
southwestern side of the cyclone and a developing warm front to the
north and east. However, the cyclone still has persistent
convection just north and northeast of the center, so it remains a
hurricane on this advisory. NOAA buoy 44011 reported a minimum
pressure of 955.3 mb as the center passed just to the west, so the
initial central pressure is lowered to 953 mb. The initial
intensity remains 75 kt based partly on recently-received WindSat
data showing hurricane-force winds southwest of the center.

Dorian continues to move rapidly northeastward with an initial
motion of 040/25 kt. The current motion should bring the center
of Dorian over central and eastern Nova Scotia in about 12 h and
near or over Prince Edward Island shortly thereafter. Subsequently,
Dorian is forecast to move near or through northern Newfoundland
and southeastern Labrador before turning east-northeastward over the
far north Atlantic. There are no significant changes to the
previous forecast, and the new forecast is again close to the
various consensus aids.

Dorian is expected to complete extratropical transition during the
next 24 h as it merges with a strong mid- to upper-level trough and
associated surface frontal zone. The global models agree on a
gradual decay of the winds after transition is complete. However,
the cyclone will likely still be producing hurricane-force winds as
it moves through portions of eastern Canada. The global models also
agree that the post-tropical cyclone should become absorbed by
another extratropical low in 2-3 days. The NHC intensity forecast
again leans towards the GFS and ECMWF models, which typically handle
large extratropical lows better that than the intensity models that
are made for tropical cyclones.


Key Messages:

1. Regardless of whether it is a hurricane or a post-tropical
cyclone, Dorian is expected to have a significant impact in portions
of eastern Canada beginning during the next several hours. Dangerous
storm surge impacts are likely in portions of the Gulf of St.
Lawrence, southwestern Newfoundland and eastern Nova Scotia.
Hurricane-force winds are also likely in Nova Scotia, Prince Edward
Island and Newfoundland later today and tonight. Refer to
information from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for more information
on these hazards.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 42.0N 66.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 45.1N 63.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER NOVA SCOTIA
24H 08/1200Z 48.9N 59.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 09/0000Z 51.7N 54.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 09/1200Z 54.2N 47.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-07 14:53

WTNT35 KNHC 071451
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 57
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 07 2019

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING INTO SOUTHWESTERN NOVA
SCOTIA...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.0N 66.0W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SSE OF EASTPORT MAINE
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the coast of
Massachusetts, as well as for Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Eastern Nova Scotia from Lower East Pubnico to Brule
* Western Newfoundland from Indian Harbour to Hawke's Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Prince Edward Island
* Magdalen Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Bar Harbor to Eastport ME
* Prince Edward Island
* Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to north of Lower East
Pubnico
* Fundy National Park to Shediac
* Stone's Cove to Indian Harbour
* Hawke's Bay to Fogo Island
* Mutton Bay to Mary's Harbour

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area in this case within the next 12
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere along the New England coasts of the United
States should monitor the progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was
located near latitude 42.0 North, longitude 66.0 West. Dorian is
moving toward the northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h), and a general
motion toward the northeast is expected to continue through Sunday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to
move across central or eastern Nova Scotia this afternoon or this
evening, pass near or over Prince Edward Island tonight, and then
move near or over portions of Newfoundland and Labrador on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is expected to become a hurricane-force
post-tropical cyclone as it moves across eastern Canada tonight or
on Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310
miles (500 km). Yarmouth, Nova Scotia recently reported sustained
winds of 36 mph (57 km/h) and a wind gust of 56 mph (91 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.15 inches).
NOAA buoy 44011 reported a minimum pressure of 955.3 mb (28.21
inches) as the center passed just to the west about an hour ago.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions should spread into the warning area
in Maine by this afternoon.

Regardless of whether Dorian is a hurricane or a post-tropical
cyclone, hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland beginning later today, and they
are possible in the Hurricane Watch area by tonight. Tropical
Storm conditions are currently spreading into southwestern Nova
Scotia, and these conditions are expected elsewhere in the Tropical
Storm Warning area in eastern Canada later today and tonight.

STORM SURGE: Storm Surge is likely in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the
Southwest Coast of Newfoundland, and Eastern Nova Scotia.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through tonight:

Far eastern Maine...1 to 3 inches.
Nova Scotia...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches.
New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island...2 to 4 inches.
Newfoundland and far eastern Quebec...1 to 2 inches.

These rainfall amounts could result in flash flooding.

SURF: Large swells are increasing along the coast in Atlantic
Canada, and they will continue to affect that area during the next
few days. Swells along the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of
the U.S. will continue for a couple of more days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-07 14:52

WTNT25 KNHC 071450
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 57
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
1500 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE COAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS...AS WELL AS FOR NANTUCKET AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM LOWER EAST PUBNICO TO BRULE
* WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM INDIAN HARBOUR TO HAWKE'S BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* MAGDALEN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF BAR HARBOR TO EASTPORT ME
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM AVONPORT TO NORTH OF LOWER EAST
PUBNICO
* FUNDY NATIONAL PARK TO SHEDIAC
* STONE'S COVE TO INDIAN HARBOUR
* HAWKE'S BAY TO FOGO ISLAND
* MUTTON BAY TO MARY'S HARBOUR

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COASTS OF THE UNITED
STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.0N 66.0W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 25 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 90SE 60SW 0NW.
50 KT.......120NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT.......270NE 240SE 180SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 540SE 600SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.0N 66.0W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.9N 66.9W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 45.1N 63.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 90SE 60SW 0NW.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...300NE 240SE 210SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 48.9N 59.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 80NW.
34 KT...350NE 270SE 240SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 51.7N 54.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW.
34 KT...300NE 240SE 240SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 54.2N 47.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...240NE 220SE 180SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.0N 66.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 07/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2019-09-07 11:49

WTNT35 KNHC 071147
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 56A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
800 AM AST Sat Sep 07 2019

...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.9N 67.0W
ABOUT 160 MI...230 KM SE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
ABOUT 310 MI...255 KM SW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Eastern Nova Scotia from Lower East Pubnico to Brule
* Western Newfoundland from Indian Harbour to Hawke's Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Prince Edward Island
* Magdalen Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA
* Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard MA
* East of Bar Harbor to Eastport ME
* Prince Edward Island
* Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to north of Lower East
Pubnico
* Fundy National Park to Shediac
* Stone's Cove to Indian Harbour
* Hawke's Bay to Fogo Island
* Mutton Bay to Mary's Harbour

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area in this case within the next 12
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere along the New England coasts of the United
States should monitor the progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 40.9 North, longitude 67.0 West. Dorian is moving
toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this general motion
is expected through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of
Dorian should pass to the southeast of extreme southeastern New
England this morning, and then move across Nova Scotia and
Newfoundland later today and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight weakening is forecast, but Dorian is expected to
move over Nova Scotia with hurricane-force winds. Thereafter,
Dorian is forecast to become a powerful post-tropical cyclone over
eastern Canada by tonight or early Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310
miles (500 km). A NOAA buoy at Nantucket Shoals, Massachusetts,
recently reported a sustained wind of 64 mph (104 km/h) and a gust
of 80 mph (129 km/h). A Weatherflow station at Sagamore Beach,
Massachusetts, recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph (64 km/h)
and a gust of 51 mph (82 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the
warning area over portions of extreme southeastern Massachusetts
during the next few hours. These conditions should spread into
the warning area in Maine by this afternoon.

Regardless of whether Dorian is a hurricane or a post-tropical
cyclone, hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland beginning later today, and they
are possible in the Hurricane Watch area by tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in
eastern Canada later today and tonight.

STORM SURGE: Storm Surge is likely in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the
Southwest Coast of Newfoundland, and Eastern Nova Scotia.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Saturday:

Extreme Southeastern New England and far eastern Maine...1 to 3
inches.

Nova Scotia...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches.

New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island...2 to 4 inches

Newfoundland and far eastern Quebec...1 to 2 inches

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods

SURF: Large swells are increasing along the coast in Atlantic
Canada, and they will continue to affect that area during the next
few days. Swells along the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of
the U.S. will continue for a couple of more days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-07 09:56

WTNT65 KNHC 070954
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
600 AM EDT SAT Sep 07 2019

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS...

The Canadian Hurricane Centre has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for the Magdalen Islands in eastern Canada.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-09-07 08:41

WTNT45 KNHC 070839
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 56
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM AST Sat Sep 07 2019

Dorian is gradually becoming less organized. The cyclone is feeling
some effects of southwesterly wind shear with most of its deep
convection located to the north and east of the estimated center.
The initial intensity is lowered a little to 75 kt, which is in good
agreement with the latest Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. A
pair of ASCAT passes from several hours ago indicate that the wind
field has expanded significantly, and tropical-storm-force winds
have been observed over far southeastern Massachusetts.

Dorian is racing northeastward, with the latest initial motion
estimated to be 050/22 kt. The hurricane is well embedded in the
fast mid-latitude flow, and it should continue to move quickly
northeastward toward Nova Scotia later today. After the cyclone
passes Nova Scotia, it is forecast to move through Newfoundland and
Labrador before turning east-northeastward over the far north
Atlantic. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the
previous one and not far from the various consensus aids.

Dorian is expected to gradually weaken due to even stronger
southwesterly wind shear and much colder SSTs to the north of
the Gulf Stream current. The combined influences of these cold
waters and an approaching mid- to upper-level trough should cause
Dorian to lose its tropical characteristics in about 24 hours.
However, the post-tropical cyclone will likely still be producing
hurricane-force winds as it moves through portions of eastern
Canada. The global models are in good agreement that the
post-tropical cyclone should slowly weaken and ultimately become
absorbed by another extratropical low in 3 to 4 days. The NHC
intensity forecast is in best agreement with the GFS and ECMWF
models, which typically handle large extratropical lows better that
than the intensity models that are made for tropical cyclones.


Key Messages:

1. Regardless of whether it is a hurricane or a post-tropical
cyclone, Dorian is expected to have a significant impact in portions
of eastern Canada beginning later today. Dangerous storm surge
impacts are likely in portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence,
southwestern Newfoundland and eastern Nova Scotia. Hurricane-force
winds are also likely in Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and
Newfoundland later today and tonight. Refer to information from the
Canadian Hurricane Centre for more information on these hazards.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 39.7N 68.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 42.8N 64.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 46.9N 61.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 08/1800Z 50.0N 58.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 09/0600Z 52.5N 52.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 10/0600Z 57.5N 36.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-09-07 08:40

WTNT35 KNHC 070838
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 56
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM AST Sat Sep 07 2019

...DORIAN PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.7N 68.1W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Canadian Hurricane Center has adjusted the warnings for Nova
Scotia, Newfoundland, and the Lower North Shore Quebec.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Eastern Nova Scotia from Lower East Pubnico to Brule
* Western Newfoundland from Indian Harbour to Hawke's Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Prince Edward Island
* Magdalen Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA
* Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard MA
* East of Bar Harbor to Eastport ME
* Prince Edward Island
* Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to north of Lower East
Pubnico
* Fundy National Park to Shediac
* Stone's Cove to Indian Harbour
* Hawke's Bay to Fogo Island
* Mutton Bay to Mary's Harbour

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area in this case within the next 12
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere along the New England coasts of the United
States should monitor the progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 39.7 North, longitude 68.1 West. Dorian is moving
toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this general motion
is expected through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of
Dorian should pass to the southeast of extreme southeastern New
England this morning, and then move across Nova Scotia and
Newfoundland later today and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight weakening is forecast, but Dorian is expected to
move over Nova Scotia with hurricane-force winds. Thereafter,
Dorian is forecast to become a powerful post-tropical cyclone over
eastern Canada by tonight or early Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310
miles (500 km). A NOAA buoy at Nantucket Shoals, Massachusetts,
recently reported a sustained wind of 52 mph (83 km/h) and a gust
of 76 mph (122 km/h). A Weatherflow observation on Cape Cod,
Massachusetts, recently measured a wind gust of 48 mph (77 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the
warning area over portions of extreme southeastern Massachusetts
during the next several hours. These conditions should spread into
the warning area in Maine by this afternoon.

Regardless of whether Dorian is a hurricane or a post-tropical
cyclone, hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland beginning later today, and they
are possible in the Hurricane Watch area by tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in
eastern Canada later today and tonight.

STORM SURGE: Storm Surge is likely in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the
Southwest Coast of Newfoundland, and Eastern Nova Scotia.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Saturday:

Extreme Southeastern New England and far eastern Maine...1 to 3
inches.

Nova Scotia...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches.

New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island...2 to 4 inches

Newfoundland and far eastern Quebec...1 to 2 inches

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods

SURF: Large swells are increasing along the coast in Atlantic
Canada, and they will continue to affect that area during the next
few days. Swells along the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of
the U.S. will continue for a couple of more days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-09-07 08:38

WTNT25 KNHC 070836
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 56
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
0900 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER HAS ADJUSTED THE WARNINGS FOR NOVA
SCOTIA...NEWFOUNDLAND...AND THE LOWER NORTH SHORE QUEBEC.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM LOWER EAST PUBNICO TO BRULE
* WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM INDIAN HARBOUR TO HAWKE'S BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* MAGDALEN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MA
* NANTUCKET AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD MA
* EAST OF BAR HARBOR TO EASTPORT ME
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM AVONPORT TO NORTH OF LOWER EAST
PUBNICO
* FUNDY NATIONAL PARK TO SHEDIAC
* STONE'S COVE TO INDIAN HARBOUR
* HAWKE'S BAY TO FOGO ISLAND
* MUTTON BAY TO MARY'S HARBOUR

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COASTS OF THE UNITED
STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.7N 68.1W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 90SE 60SW 0NW.
50 KT.......120NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT.......270NE 240SE 180SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..220NE 480SE 330SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.7N 68.1W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.8N 69.1W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 42.8N 64.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 90SE 60SW 0NW.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...300NE 240SE 210SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 46.9N 61.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 80NW.
34 KT...350NE 270SE 240SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 50.0N 58.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW.
34 KT...300NE 240SE 240SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 52.5N 52.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...240NE 220SE 180SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 57.5N 36.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 140SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.7N 68.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 07/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2019-09-07 05:39

WTNT35 KNHC 070536
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 55A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
200 AM EDT Sat Sep 07 2019

...DORIAN PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.8N 69.1W
ABOUT 170 MI...280 KM SSE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM SW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Eastern Nova Scotia from Lower East Pubnico to Avonport

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to north of Lower East
Pubnico.
* Prince Edward Island
* Magdalen Islands
* Southwestern Newfoundland from Parson's Pond to Indian
Harbour

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA
* Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard MA
* East of Bar Harbor to Eastport ME
* Prince Edward Island
* Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to north of Lower East
Pubnico
* Fundy National Park to Shediac

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Parson's Pond to Triton
* Indian Harbour to Stone's Cove

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area in this case within the next 12
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of
the United States should monitor the progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 38.8 North, longitude 69.1 West. Dorian is moving
toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this general motion
with some increase in forward speed is expected through Sunday. On
the forecast track, the center of Dorian should pass to the
southeast of extreme southeastern New England this morning, and
then move across Nova Scotia later today.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight weakening is forecast, but Dorian is expected to
move over Nova Scotia with hurricane-force winds. Thereafter,
Dorian is forecast to become a powerful post-tropical cyclone over
eastern Canada tonight or early Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km). A NOAA buoy at Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts,
recently reported a wind gust of 43 mph (69 km/h). A Weatherflow
site on Cape Cod, Massachusetts, recently measured a wind gust of 44
mph (71 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
over portions of extreme southeastern Massachusetts during the next
several hours. These conditions should spread into the warning area
in Maine by this afternoon.

Regardless of whether Dorian is a hurricane or a post-tropical
cyclone, hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area in Nova Scotia later today, and they are possible in the
Hurricane Watch area by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in eastern Canada later
today, and they are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area by
tonight.

STORM SURGE: Storm Surge is likely in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the
Southwest Coast of Newfoundland, and Eastern Nova Scotia.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Saturday:

Extreme Southeastern New England and far eastern Maine...1 to 4
inches.

Nova Scotia...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches.

New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island...2 to 4 inches

Newfoundland...1 to 2 inches

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods

SURF: Large swells are increasing in Atlantic Canada, and they will
continue to affect that area during the next few days. Swells
along the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of the U.S. will
continue for a couple of more days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-09-07 02:51

WTNT45 KNHC 070249
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 55
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019

During the past couple of hours Dorian's eye has become no longer
apparent in conventional satellite imagery. Microwave data shows an
eye-like feature just to the south of the convection, and also
indicates that the hurricane is becoming asymmetric. The lack of
symmetry is the first indication or hint that Dorian is slowly
beginning to acquire some extratropical characteristics. The rain
shield is now placed to the northwest of the center, and the wind
field is expanding in the southern semicircle. Dvorak numbers are
either steady or have decreased slightly, and consequently the
initial intensity is kept at 80 kt in this advisory.

The hurricane is rapidly reaching cooler waters and guidance shows
an area of significantly strong shear along the forecast path
of Dorian. Given these conditions, the NHC forecast calls for
gradual weakening, but Dorian is still expected to make landfall in
Nova Scotia with hurricane intensity late Saturday. Dorian is
forecast to complete its transition to extratropical once it crosses
Nova Scotia.

The hurricane is racing northeastward or 045 degrees at 22 kt. Since
Dorian is already embedded within a fast southwesterly flow ahead of
a mid-latitude trough, the current northeast heading should
continue until dissipation occurs in about 3 days, if not sooner.
The track guidance is in remarkably good agreement, and the NHC
forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope, increasing the
confidence in the track forecast.

Key Messages:

1. Regardless of whether it is a hurricane or a post-tropical
cyclone, Dorian is expected to have a significant impact in portions
of eastern Canada. Dangerous storm surge impacts are likely in
portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence, southwestern Newfoundland and
eastern Nova Scotia this weekend. Hurricane-force winds are also
likely in Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and possibly
Newfoundland Saturday and Sunday. Refer to information from the
Canadian Hurricane Centre for more information on these hazards.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 38.3N 70.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 40.8N 66.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 45.0N 63.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
36H 08/1200Z 49.0N 59.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 09/0000Z 52.0N 55.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 10/0000Z 56.0N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-07 02:50

WTNT35 KNHC 070248
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 55
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019

...DORIAN HEADING FOR NOVA SCOTIA IN A HURRY...
...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA LATE
SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.3N 70.2W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
ABOUT 555 MI...890 KM SW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Canadian Hurricane Center has adjusted the warnings for Nova
Scotia and New Brunswick and a hurricane warning is now in effect
from Lower East Pubnico eastward around Nova Scotia to Avonport, and
the tropical storm warning is effect from Tidnish to Brule and from
Fundy National Park to Shediac.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Eastern Nova Scotia from Lower East Pubnico to Avonport

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to north of Lower East
Pubnico.
* Prince Edward Island
* Magdalen Islands
* Southwestern Newfoundland from Parson's Pond to Indian
Harbour

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA
* Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard MA
* East of Bar Harbor to Eastport ME
* Prince Edward Island
* Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to north of Lower East
Pubnico
* Fundy National Park to Shediac

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Parson's Pond to Triton
* Indian Harbour to Stone's Cove

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area in this case within the next 12
to 24 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of
the United States should monitor the progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was
located near latitude 38.3 North, longitude 70.2 West. Dorian is
moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this general
motion with some increase in forward speed is expected through
Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian should pass
to the southeast of extreme southeastern New England Saturday
morning, and then across Nova Scotia late Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight weakening is forecast, but Dorian is expected to
move over Nova Scotia with hurricane force winds. Thereafter, Dorian
is forecast to become a powerful post-tropical cyclone over eastern
Canada.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
over portions of extreme southeastern Massachusetts tonight or early
Saturday, and in the warning area in Maine Saturday afternoon.

Regardless of whether Dorian is a hurricane or a post-tropical
cyclone, hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area Saturday, and they are possible in the Hurricane Watch area
Saturday or Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected
in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Canada by Saturday, and they
are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area Saturday and Saturday
night.

STORM SURGE: Storm Surge is likely in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the
Southwest Coast of Newfoundland, and Eastern Nova Scotia.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Saturday:

Extreme Southeastern New England and far eastern Maine...1 to 4
inches.

Nova Scotia...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches.

New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island...2 to 4 inches

Newfoundland...1 to 2 inches

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods

SURF: Large swells will affect much of the southeastern United
States coast from northern Florida through North Carolina during
the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-07 02:50

WTNT25 KNHC 070248
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 55
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
0300 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER HAS ADJUSTED THE WARNINGS FOR NOVA
SCOTIA AND NEW BRUNSWICK AND A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT
FROM LOWER EAST PUBNICO EASTWARD AROUND NOVA SCOTIA TO
AVONPORT...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EFFECT FROM TIDNISH TO
BRULE AND FROM FUNDY NATIONAL PARK TO SHEDIAC.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM LOWER EAST PUBNICO TO AVONPORT

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM AVONPORT TO NORTH OF LOWER EAST
PUBNICO.
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* MAGDALEN ISLANDS
* SOUTHWESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM PARSON'S POND TO INDIAN
HARBOUR

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MA
* NANTUCKET AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD MA
* EAST OF BAR HARBOR TO EASTPORT ME
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM AVONPORT TO NORTH OF LOWER EAST
PUBNICO
* FUNDY NATIONAL PARK TO SHEDIAC

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PARSON'S POND TO TRITON
* INDIAN HARBOUR TO STONE'S COVE

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS OF
THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.3N 70.2W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.
50 KT.......100NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 160SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 400SE 300SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.3N 70.2W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.5N 71.2W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 40.8N 66.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 45.0N 63.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
50 KT...170NE 140SE 100SW 80NW.
34 KT...350NE 270SE 180SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 49.0N 59.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 100SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...340NE 280SE 240SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 52.0N 55.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...200NE 220SE 200SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 56.0N 41.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 140SE 100SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.3N 70.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 07/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

>

2019-09-06 23:52

WTNT35 KNHC 062350
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 54A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
800 PM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019

...DORIAN RACING NORTHEATWARD AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS TO PORTIONS OF NOVA
SCOTIA LATE SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.4N 71.6W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning south of Fenwick Island DE, and for
the Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward have been discontinued.

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Eastern Nova Scotia from Hubbards to Avonport

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to Hubbards
* Prince Edward Island
* Magdalen Islands
* Southwestern Newfoundland from Parson's Pond to Indian
Harbour

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA
* Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard MA
* East of Bar Harbor to Eastport ME
* Prince Edward Island
* Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to Hubbards

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Fundy National Park to Shediac
* Parson's Pond to Triton
* Indian Harbour to Stone's Cove

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area in this case within the next 12
to 24 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of
the United States should monitor the progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 37.4 North, longitude 71.6 West. Dorian is moving
toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h), and this general motion
with an additional increase in forward speed is expected through
Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian should move
move to the southeast of extreme southeastern New England tonight
and Saturday morning, and then across Nova Scotia late Saturday or
Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours.
After that time, Dorian is forecast to become a post-tropical
cyclone with hurricane-force winds Saturday night or Sunday while it
is near or over eastern Canada.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Gusts of tropical-storm-force could still occur over portions
of the coast of the Mid-Atlantic states, but these winds should
subside tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
warning area over portions of extreme southeastern Massachusetts
tonight or early Saturday, and in the warning area in Maine Saturday
afternoon.

Regardless of whether Dorian is a hurricane or a post-tropical
cyclone, hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area Saturday or Saturday night, and they are possible in the
Hurricane Watch area Saturday or Saturday night. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Canada
by Saturday, and they are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area
Saturday and Saturday night.

STORM SURGE: Water levels along the North Carolina coast will
continue to recede throughout the evening. For information specific
to your area, please see products issued by your local National
Weather Service forecast office.

Storm Surge is likely in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the Southwest
Coast of Newfoundland, and Eastern Nova Scotia.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Saturday:

Extreme Southeastern New England and far eastern Maine...1 to 4
inches.

Nova Scotia...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches.

New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island...2 to 4 inches

Newfoundland...1 to 2 inches

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods

SURF: Large swells will affect much of the southeastern United
States coast from northern Florida through North Carolina during
the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-06 21:03

WTNT45 KNHC 062101
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 54
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019

Dorian has become better organized since it moved into the Atlantic
this morning, and satellite imagery shows that it now has a
well-defined eye embedded in a central dense overcast along with a
large outer banding feature in the northwestern semicircle. The
last aircraft data near 1700 UTC indicated this had not yet resulted
in intensification. However, the various subjective and objective
satellite intensity estimates are trending upward, and the advisory
intensity of 80 kt could be conservative. The hurricane currently
has excellent outflow over the northern semicircle.

The initial motion is now 050/21. Dorian should move quickly
northeastward during the next 24-48 h as it interacts with a mid- to
upper-level trough, currently over the eastern Great Lakes. The
track guidance has changed little and remains tightly clustered, and
only minor adjustments have been made to the previous track. The
new forecast track calls for Dorian to pass well southeast of
southern New England tonight and Saturday, and then move over Nova
Scotia Saturday or Saturday night. A continued northeastward motion
is then expected to bring the cyclone across Newfoundland into the
far north Atlantic.

There has been a significant change to the intensity forecast
philosophy. The GFS and ECMWF, which have been forecasting Dorian
to transition to a powerful extratropical low, now forecast
intensification of the system due to baroclinic processes associated
with the aforementioned trough, including very strong upper-level
divergence. Given that Dorian is currently a well-organized
hurricane and will be south of the Gulf Stream for about the next
18-24 h, it is likely that at least some of this strengthening will
occur before Dorian becomes extratropical. The new intensity
forecast now calls for Dorian to strengthen as a hurricane during
the next 12-24 h, then undergo extratropical transition as it is
passing near or over Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. The intensities
in the new forecast are increased during the first 24 h to reflect
this change. Dorian is likely to be a hurricane at landfall in Nova
Scotia, but it will cause significant impacts even if it has
completed extratropical transition by that time.


Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds will continue
along portions of the North Carolina coast for the next several
hours.

2. Regardless of whether Dorian is a hurricane or a post-tropical
cyclone, Dorian is expected to have a significant impact in portions
of eastern Canada. Dangerous storm surge impacts are likely in
portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence, southwestern Newfoundland and
eastern Nova Scotia this weekend. Hurricane-force winds are also
likely in Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and possibly
Newfoundland Saturday and Sunday. Refer to information from the
Canadian Hurricane Centre for more information on these hazards.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 36.9N 72.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 39.1N 69.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 42.9N 65.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 47.1N 61.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 50.6N 57.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 09/1800Z 55.5N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-06 21:00

WTNT35 KNHC 062058
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 54
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019

...DORIAN MOVING AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS TO PORTIONS OF NOVA
SCOTIA...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.9N 72.7W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
ABOUT 715 MI...1145 KM SW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Canadian Hurricane Center has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for Newfoundland from Boat Harbour to Triton.

All Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are discontinued south of
the North Carolina/Virginia Border.

The Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued for the Tidal Potomac
south of Cobb Island.

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued north of the North
Carolina/Virginia border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Salter Path NC to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Eastern Nova Scotia from Hubbards to Avonport

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to Hubbards
* Prince Edward Island
* Magdalen Islands
* Southwestern Newfoundland from Parson's Pond to Indian
Harbour

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North Carolina/Virginia border to Fenwick Island DE
* Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA
* Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard MA
* East of Bar Harbor to Eastport ME
* Prince Edward Island
* Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to Hubbards

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Fundy National Park to Shediac
* Parson's Pond to Triton
* Indian Harbour to Stone's Cove

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 12 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.
This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of
the United States should monitor the progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 36.9 North, longitude 72.7 West. Dorian is moving
toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h), and this general motion
with an additional increase in forward speed is expected through
Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian should
move move to the southeast of extreme southeastern New England
tonight and Saturday morning, and then across Nova Scotia late
Saturday or Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours.
After that time, Dorian is forecast to become a post-tropical
cyclone with hurricane-force winds Saturday night or Sunday while
it is near or over eastern Canada.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to
230 miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will persist for a few more hours
in the warning area over the Mid-Atlantic states. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the warning area over portions of extreme
southeastern Massachusetts tonight or early Saturday, and in the
warning area in Maine Saturday afternoon.

Regardless of whether Dorian is a hurricane or a post-tropical
cyclone, hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area Saturday or Saturday night, and they are possible in the
Hurricane Watch area Saturday or Saturday night. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Canada
by Saturday, and they are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area
Saturday and Saturday night.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Salter Path to the North Carolina/Virginia border, including Pamlico
and Albemarle Sounds...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Storm Surge is likely in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the Southwest
Coast of Newfoundland, and Eastern Nova Scotia.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Saturday:

Extreme Southeastern New England and far eastern Maine...1 to 4
inches.

Nova Scotia...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches.

New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island...2 to 4 inches

Newfoundland...1 to 2 inches

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods

SURF: Large swells will affect much of the southeastern United
States coast from northern Florida through North Carolina during
the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-06 20:58

WTNT25 KNHC 062056
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 54
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
2100 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR NEWFOUNDLAND FROM BOAT HARBOUR TO TRITON.

ALL HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF
THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FOR THE TIDAL POTOMAC
SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND.

THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED NORTH OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SALTER PATH NC TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM HUBBARDS TO AVONPORT

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM AVONPORT TO HUBBARDS
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* MAGDALEN ISLANDS
* SOUTHWESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM PARSON'S POND TO INDIAN
HARBOUR

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO FENWICK ISLAND DE
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT SOUTHWARD
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MA
* NANTUCKET AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD MA
* EAST OF BAR HARBOR TO EASTPORT ME
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA FROM AVONPORT TO HUBBARDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FUNDY NATIONAL PARK TO SHEDIAC
* PARSON'S POND TO TRITON
* INDIAN HARBOUR TO STONE'S COVE

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION
OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.
THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE
AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS OF
THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.9N 72.7W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.
50 KT.......100NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 160SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 400SE 300SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.9N 72.7W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 73.7W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 39.1N 69.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 42.9N 65.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 220SE 160SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 47.1N 61.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 110SW 100NW.
34 KT...220NE 240SE 180SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 50.6N 57.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 240SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 55.5N 45.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 270SE 270SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.9N 72.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 07/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2019-09-06 17:56

WTNT35 KNHC 061754
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 53A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019

...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS RECENTLY REPORTED ON THE NORTH
CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...
...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR EASTERN CANADA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.2N 73.7W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM NE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...34 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Canadian Hurricane Center has issued a Hurricane Warning for
eastern Nova Scotia from Hubbards to Avonport.

The Canadian Hurricane Center has issued a Hurricane Watch for
Prince Edward Island, southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to
Hubbards, the Magdalen Islands, and southwestern Newfoundland from
Parson's Pond to Indian Harbour.

The Canadian Hurricane Center has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for Prince Edward Island and southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport
to Hubbards.

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued for the Pamlico and
Neuse Rivers.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Salter Path NC to Poquoson VA
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Hampton Roads

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bogue Inlet to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Eastern Nova Scotia from Hubbards to Avonport

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to Hubbards
* Prince Edward Island
* Magdalen Islands
* Southwestern Newfoundland from Parson's Pond to Indian
Harbour

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North Carolina/Virginia border to Fenwick Island DE
* Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA
* Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard MA
* East of Bar Harbor to Eastport ME
* Prince Edward Island
* Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to Hubbards

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Fundy National Park to Shediac
* Boat Harbour to Parson's Pond
* Indian Harbour to Stone's Cove

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.
This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of
the United States should monitor the progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 36.2 North, longitude 73.7 West. Dorian is moving
toward the northeast near 21 mph (34 km/h) and this general motion
with an additional increase in forward speed is expected through
Saturday night. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will
move away from the coast of North Carolina during the next several
hours. The center should move to the southeast of extreme
southeastern New England tonight and Saturday morning, and then
across Nova Scotia late Saturday or Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow weakening is expected through Saturday. After that,
Dorian is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone with
hurricane-force winds by Saturday night as it approaches Nova
Scotia.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 75 miles (120 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220
miles (350 km). During the last two hours, several station on the
North Carolina Outer Banks north of Cape Hatteras reported
sustained winds of 70-80 mph with higher gusts. These winds are
now decreasing.

The minimum central pressure reported by and Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are ending along portions of the
North Carolina coast. Tropical storm conditions should continue on
portions of the the southeastern coast of Virginia, northeastern
coast of North Carolina, and the Lower Chesapeake Bay for a few more
hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
over portions of extreme southeastern Massachusetts tonight or early
Saturday, and in the warning area in Maine Saturday afternoon.

Hurricane conditions are expected in eastern Nova Scotia Saturday,
and they are possible in the Hurricane Watch area in Canada
Saturday or Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected
in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Canada by Saturday, and they
are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Canada Saturday and
Saturday night.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Salter Path to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle
Sounds...4 to 7 ft
Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Storm Surge is likely in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the Southwest
Coast of Newfoundland, and Eastern Nova Scotia.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Saturday:

Northeastern North Carolina into far southeast Virginia...Additional
1 to 4 inches, isolated storm totals 10 inches.

Extreme Southeastern New England...2 to 4 inches.

Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island...3 to 5 inches.

Newfoundland...1 to 2 inches

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods

SURF: Large swells will affect much of the southeastern United
States coast from northern Florida through North Carolina during
the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-06 16:59

WTNT65 KNHC 061657
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
100 PM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019

...DORIAN STILL CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS...

During the past hour, a elevated Weatherflow station at Jannette
Pier, North Carolina, recently reported sustained winds of 83 mph
(133 km/h) and a wind gust of 98 mph (157 km/h).

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Update for
Dorian. An intermediate advisory will be issued at 2 pm EDT,
followed by the next complete advisory at 5 pm EDT.


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.9N 74.1W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-09-06 15:57

WTNT65 KNHC 061555
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1200 PM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019

...DORIAN CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE
WINDS...

A Weatherflow station at Oregon Inlet, North Carolina, recently
reported a sustained wind of 74 mph (119 km/h) and a wind
gust of 92 mph (148 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.7N 74.4W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-09-06 14:59

WTNT45 KNHC 061457
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 53
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019

The eye of Dorian made landfall over Cape Hatteras, North Carolina,
at about 1235 UTC and then moved quickly northeastward into the
Atlantic. A combination of surface observations and Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that the maximum
winds are near 80 kt and the central pressure is near 957 mb. The
hurricane remains well-organized in satellite imagery, with
the 30 n mi wide eye surrounded by cold convective banding.

The initial motion is now 045/15. Dorian should accelerate
northeastward during the next 24-36 h as a mid- to upper-level
trough, currently over the U.S. Great Lakes, approaches the system
and accelerates the steering flow. The track guidance remains
tightly clustered, and the new track forecast is changed little in
either direction or speed from the previous forecast. The new
forecast calls for Dorian to move away from the North Carolina
coast today, pass well southeast of southern New England tonight
and Saturday, and then move over Nova Scotia Saturday or Saturday
night. A continued northeastward motion is then expected to bring
the cyclone across Newfoundland into the far north Atlantic.

Dorian is expected to slowly weaken due to increased shear and
entrainment of drier air during the next 24 h or so. After that
time, the hurricane is expected to undergo extratropical
transition and become a large and powerful post-tropical low. It is
unclear whether the transition will be complete before Dorian
reaches Nova Scotia. However, whether Dorian is a hurricane or a
hurricane-force extratropical low, it is expected to bring strong
winds, storm surge, and heavy rains to portions of Nova Scotia and
Newfoundland. The new NHC intensity forecast is little changed from
the previous forecast, and it follows the trend of the intensity
guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds will continue
along portions of the North Carolina coast, portions of southeast
Virginia and the southern Chesapeake Bay for the next several
hours.

2. Areas of flash flooding, some of which may be significant and
life-threatening, will continue into early afternoon across portions
of northeastern North Carolina into far southeast Virginia.

3. Dangerous storm surge impacts are likely in portions of the Gulf
of St. Lawrence, southwestern Newfoundland and eastern Nova Scotia
this weekend. Hurricane-force winds are also likely in Nova Scotia,
Prince Edward Island and possibly Newfoundland Saturday and Sunday.
Refer to information from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for more
information on these hazards.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 35.7N 74.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 37.4N 72.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 40.7N 67.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 44.9N 63.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
48H 08/1200Z 48.8N 60.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 09/1200Z 54.5N 48.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-06 14:57

WTNT35 KNHC 061455
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 53
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019

...EYE OF DORIAN MOVING OVER THE ATLANTIC EAST OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.7N 74.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM NE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect east of Bar Harbor,
Maine, to Eastport, Maine.

The Hurricane Warning has been discontinued west of Bogue Inlet,
North Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Salter Path NC to Poquoson VA
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
* Hampton Roads

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bogue Inlet to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nova Scotia

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North Carolina/Virginia border to Fenwick Island DE
* Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA
* Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard MA
* East of Bar Harbor to Eastport ME

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Prince Edward Island
* Magdalen Islands
* Fundy National Park to Shediac
* Francois to Boat Harbour

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.
This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of
the United States should monitor the progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was
located near latitude 35.7 North, longitude 74.8 West. Dorian is
moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this general
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through
Saturday night. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will
move away from the coast of North Carolina during the next several
hours. The center should move to the southeast of extreme
southeastern New England tonight and Saturday morning, and then
across Nova Scotia late Saturday or Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow weakening is expected through Saturday. After that,
Dorian is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone with
hurricane-force winds by Saturday night as it approaches Nova
Scotia.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles
(350 km). About an hour ago, a Weatherflow station at Avon Sound,
North Carolina reported a sustained wind of 83 mph (134 km/h) and a
wind gust of 98 mph (158 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter data and surface observations is 957 mb (28.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions should end along portions of the
North Carolina coast during the next few hours. Tropical storm
conditions should continue on the southeastern coast of Virginia for
the next several hours, and are expected to spread across other
portions of the the Mid-Atlantic states later today. Tropical
storm conditions are also expected in the warning area over portions
of extreme southeastern Massachusetts tonight or early Saturday,
and in the warning area in Maine Saturday afternoon

Hurricane conditions are possible in Nova Scotia and Prince
Edward Island Saturday, and tropical storm conditions are possible
over other portions of the Canadian Maritime and Atlantic areas
Saturday and Saturday night.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Salter Path to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle
Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 7 ft
Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Storm Surge is likely in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the Southwest
Coast of Newfoundland, and Eastern Nova Scotia.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Saturday:

Northeastern North Carolina into far southeast Virginia...Additional
1 to 4 inches, isolated storm totals 10 inches.

Extreme Southeastern New England...2 to 4 inches.

Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island...3 to 5 inches.

Newfoundland...1 to 2 inches

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods

SURF: Large swells will affect much of the southeastern United
States coast from northern Florida through North Carolina during
the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-06 14:56

WTNT25 KNHC 061455
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 53
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
1500 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT EAST OF BAR
HARBOR MAINE...TO EASTPORT MAINE.

THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF BOGUE
INLET NORTH CAROLINA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SALTER PATH NC TO POQUOSON VA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS
* HAMPTON ROADS

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NOVA SCOTIA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO FENWICK ISLAND DE
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT SOUTHWARD
* TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MA
* NANTUCKET AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD MA
* EAST OF BAR HARBOR TO EASTPORT ME

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* MAGDALEN ISLANDS
* FUNDY NATIONAL PARK TO SHEDIAC
* FRANCOIS TO BOAT HARBOUR

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.
THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE
AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS OF
THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.7N 74.8W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT.......170NE 190SE 140SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 400SE 270SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.7N 74.8W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 75.7W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 37.4N 72.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 140SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 40.7N 67.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 30NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 220SE 150SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 44.9N 63.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 110SW 100NW.
34 KT...220NE 240SE 180SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 48.8N 60.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 240SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 54.5N 48.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...270NE 270SE 270SW 240NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.7N 74.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 06/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2019-09-06 14:01

WTNT65 KNHC 061359
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1000 AM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019

...DORIAN PRODUCING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS IN THE OUTER BANKS...

A Weatherflow station at Hatteras High School, North Carolina,
recently reported a sustained wind of 77 mph (124 km/h) and a wind
gust of 89 mph (161 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.4N 75.2W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-09-06 12:57

WTNT65 KNHC 061255
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
900 AM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019

...DORIAN MAKES LANDFALL OVER CAPE HATTERAS...

Surface and radar data indicate that the center of Hurricane Dorian
made landfall at 835 AM EDT (1235 UTC) over Cape Hatteras, North
Carolina. Maximum sustained winds were near 90 mph (150 km/h) with
a minimum central pressure of 956 mb...28.23 inches.

A Weatherflow station at Ocracoke, North Carolina, recently
reported a sustained wind of 73 mph (117 km/h) and a wind gust of
89 mph (143 km/h). Other stations at Hatteras High School and
Buxton both recently reported a minimum central pressure of 957
mb...28.26 inches.


SUMMARY OF 900 AM EDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.3N 75.5W
ABOUT 5 MI...5 KM NE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-09-06 11:56

WTNT35 KNHC 061154
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 52A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019

...EYE OF DORIAN NEAR CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.2N 75.7W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM WSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning and the Tropical Storm Warning have been
discontinued west of Surf City, North Carolina.

The Storm Surge Warning south of Salter Path, North Carolina has
been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Salter Path NC to Poquoson VA
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
* Hampton Roads

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Surf City to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nova Scotia

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North Carolina/Virginia border to Fenwick Island DE
* Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA
* Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard MA

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Prince Edward Island
* Magdalen Islands
* Fundy National Park to Shediac
* Francois to Boat Harbour

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.
This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of
the United States should monitor the progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 35.2 North, longitude 75.7 West. Dorian is moving
toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion
with an increase in forward speed is expected through Saturday. On
the forecast track, the center of Dorian will move near or over the
coast of North Carolina during the next few hours. The center
should move to the southeast of extreme southeastern New England
tonight and Saturday morning, and then across Nova Scotia late
Saturday or Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian should remain a powerful hurricane as it moves near
or along the coast of North Carolina during the next few hours.
Dorian is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone with
hurricane-force winds by Saturday night as it approaches Nova
Scotia.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220
miles (350 km). A Weatherflow station at Buxton, North Carolina,
recently reported a sustained wind of 67 mph (107 km/h) and a gust
to 85 mph (145 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters and surface observations is 956 mb (28.23
inches). An automated station in Ocracoke recently reported a
pressure of 960.4 mb (28.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions should continue along portions of the
North Carolina coast for the next few hours. Tropical storm
conditions are spreading onto the Virginia coast in the warning
area.

Tropical storm conditions are expected elsewhere in the Tropical
Storm Warning area in the Mid-Atlantic states later today and over
portions of extreme southeastern Massachusetts tonight or early
Saturday.

Hurricane conditions are possible in Nova Scotia on Saturday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Salter Path to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle
Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 7 ft
Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Saturday.

Northeastern North Carolina...Additional 3 to 8 inches, isolated
storm totals 15 inches.
Far southeast Virginia...3 to 8 inches.
Extreme southeastern New England...2 to 4 inches.
Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island...3 to 5 inches.
Newfoundland...1 to 2 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods

SURF: Large swells will affect much of the southeastern United
States coast from northern Florida through North Carolina during
the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this morning across
eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-06 10:58

WTNT65 KNHC 061056
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
700 AM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019

...EYEWALL OF DORIAN CONTINES TO MOVE ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS
OF NORTH CAROLINA...

A Weatherflow station at Ocracoke, North Carolina, recently
reported a sustained wind of 69 mph (111 km/h) and a wind gust of
89 mph (120 km/h). Cape Hatteras recently reported sustained winds
of 52 mph (83 km/h) and a wind gust of 66 mph (106 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 700 AM EDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.0N 76.0W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM WSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NE OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-06 09:53

WTNT65 KNHC 060951
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
600 AM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019

...EYEWALL OF DORIAN MOVING ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA...

An observation in Cedar Island, North Carolina, recently reported a
sustained wind of 65 mph (104 km/h) and a wind gust of 96 mph (154
km/h).

A Weatherflow station at North River, North Carolina, recently
reported a sustained wind of 58 mph (93 km/h) and a wind gust of 75
mph (120 km/h). Another Weatherflow station at Ocracoke, North
Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 49 mph (79 km/h)
and a wind gust of 63 mph (101 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 600 AM EDT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.8N 76.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM NE OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM WSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Roberts

>

2019-09-06 08:55

WTNT35 KNHC 060852 CCA
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 52...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019

Corrected direction to Cape Lookout

...EYE OF DORIAN PASSING JUST EAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT...
...HURRICANE-FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHERN
OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.6N 76.2W
ABOUT 25 MI...35 KM E OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning has been replaced with a Tropical Storm
Warning from South Santee River, SC to Little River Inlet.

The Storm Surge Warning south of Surf City has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Surf City NC to Poquoson VA
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
* Hampton Roads

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Little River Inlet to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nova Scotia

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River SC to Little River Inlet
* North Carolina/Virginia border to Fenwick Island DE
* Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA
* Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard MA

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Prince Edward Island
* Magdalen Islands
* Fundy National Park to Shediac.
* Francois to Boat Harbour.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.
This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of
the United States should monitor the progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 34.6 North, longitude 76.2 West. Dorian is moving
toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion
with an increase in forward speed is expected through Saturday. On
the forecast track, the center of Dorian will move near or over the
coast of North Carolina during the next several hours. The center
should move to the southeast of extreme southeastern New England
tonight and Saturday morning, and then across Nova Scotia late
Saturday or Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian should remain a powerful hurricane as it moves near
or along the coast of North Carolina during the next several hours.
Dorian is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone with
hurricane-force winds by Saturday night as it approaches Nova
Scotia.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles
(350 km). A NOAA weather station at Cape Lookout, North Carolina,
located inside the western eyewall of Dorian has reported
sustained hurricane-force winds of 74 mph (119 km/h) and a gust to
94 mph (152 km/h). This is equivalent to a 1-minute sustained wind
speed of 81 mph (130 km/h). A Weatherflow station at Fort Macon
near Atlantic Beach, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained
wind of 64 mph (103 km/h) and a gust to 85 mph (137 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters and surface observations is 956 mb (28.23
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are spreading northward along portions
of the North Carolina coast. Tropical storm conditions are still
affecting the northern portion of the South Carolina coast.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area in the Mid-Atlantic states later today and over
portions of extreme southeastern Massachusetts tonight or early
Saturday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Surf City to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle
Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 7 ft
Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Saturday.

Northeastern North Carolina...Additional 3 to 8 inches, isolated
storm totals 15 inches.
Far southeast Virginia...3 to 8 inches.
Extreme Southeastern New England...2 to 4 inches.
Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island...3 to 5 inches.
New Newfoundland...1 to 2 inches

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods

SURF: Large swells will affect much of the southeastern United
States coast from northern Florida through North Carolina during
the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this morning across
eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-09-06 08:50

WTNT45 KNHC 060848
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 52
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019

The center of the eye of Hurricane Dorian is located just off the
coast of North Carolina not far from Cape Lookout. Based on data
from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and Doppler radar velocities,
the initial intensity is set at 80 kt. This estimate is a
compromise between the flight-level winds and SFMR values. The
minimum pressure remains quite low, 956 mb, based on surface
observations and aircraft fixes. There have been several reports in
eastern North Carolina of sustained tropical-storm-force winds and
hurricane-force gusts, with the strongest winds being reported in
the northern eyewall.

Dorian is moving northeastward at 12 kt. A faster northeastward
motion is expected during the next few days as a mid- to upper-level
trough, currently over the U.S. Great Lakes, approaches the system
and accelerates the steering flow. This track forecast takes the
hurricane along the coast of North Carolina during the next several
hours and near or over Atlantic Canada this weekend. The models
are tightly clustered, and the NHC track forecast lies near the
middle of the guidance envelope.

The hurricane is expected to gradually weaken during the next couple
of days due to an increase in wind shear and drier air. Dorian is
expected to cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream current in about
36 hours, and head over much colder waters after that. These
atmospheric and oceanic conditions should cause the cyclone to
become a powerful hurricane-force extratropical in about 2 days. As
the system gains latitude, the tropical-storm-force winds are
expected to expand significantly. The NHC intensity forecast is
largely an update of the previous one and in line with the various
consensus aids.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected
to continue along portions of the North Carolina coast, portions of
southeast Virginia and the southern Chesapeake Bay. Water levels
could rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents
in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency
officials.

2. Flash flooding is occurring, and will continue to become more
widespread across the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia
this morning. There is a high risk of flash flooding over these
areas, where significant, life-threatening flash flooding is
expected.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 34.6N 76.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 36.0N 74.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 38.8N 69.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 42.5N 65.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 46.7N 61.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 09/0600Z 53.0N 52.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 10/0600Z 58.0N 36.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-09-06 08:49

WTNT35 KNHC 060846
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 52
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019

...EYE OF DORIAN PASSING JUST SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT...
...HURRICANE-FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHERN
OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.6N 76.2W
ABOUT 25 MI...35 KM E OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning has been replaced with a Tropical Storm
Warning from South Santee River, SC to Little River Inlet.

The Storm Surge Warning south of Surf City has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Surf City NC to Poquoson VA
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
* Hampton Roads

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Little River Inlet to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nova Scotia

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River SC to Little River Inlet
* North Carolina/Virginia border to Fenwick Island DE
* Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA
* Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard MA

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Prince Edward Island
* Magdalen Islands
* Fundy National Park to Shediac.
* Francois to Boat Harbour.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.
This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of
the United States should monitor the progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 34.6 North, longitude 76.2 West. Dorian is moving
toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion
with an increase in forward speed is expected through Saturday. On
the forecast track, the center of Dorian will move near or over the
coast of North Carolina during the next several hours. The center
should move to the southeast of extreme southeastern New England
tonight and Saturday morning, and then across Nova Scotia late
Saturday or Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian should remain a powerful hurricane as it moves near
or along the coast of North Carolina during the next several hours.
Dorian is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone with
hurricane-force winds by Saturday night as it approaches Nova
Scotia.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles
(350 km). A NOAA weather station at Cape Lookout, North Carolina,
located inside the western eyewall of Dorian has reported
sustained hurricane-force winds of 74 mph (119 km/h) and a gust to
94 mph (152 km/h). This is equivalent to a 1-minute sustained wind
speed of 81 mph (130 km/h). A Weatherflow station at Fort Macon
near Atlantic Beach, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained
wind of 64 mph (103 km/h) and a gust to 85 mph (137 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters and surface observations is 956 mb (28.23
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are spreading northward along portions
of the North Carolina coast. Tropical storm conditions are still
affecting the northern portion of the South Carolina coast.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area in the Mid-Atlantic states later today and over
portions of extreme southeastern Massachusetts tonight or early
Saturday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Surf City to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle
Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 7 ft
Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Saturday.

Northeastern North Carolina...Additional 3 to 8 inches, isolated
storm totals 15 inches.
Far southeast Virginia...3 to 8 inches.
Extreme Southeastern New England...2 to 4 inches.
Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island...3 to 5 inches.
New Newfoundland...1 to 2 inches

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods

SURF: Large swells will affect much of the southeastern United
States coast from northern Florida through North Carolina during
the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this morning across
eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-09-06 08:48

WTNT25 KNHC 060846
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 52
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
0900 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER...SC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET.

THE STORM SURGE WARNING SOUTH OF SURF CITY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY NC TO POQUOSON VA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS
* HAMPTON ROADS

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NOVA SCOTIA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
* NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO FENWICK ISLAND DE
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT SOUTHWARD
* TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MA
* NANTUCKET AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD MA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* MAGDALEN ISLANDS
* FUNDY NATIONAL PARK TO SHEDIAC.
* FRANCOIS TO BOAT HARBOUR.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A DEPICTION
OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.
THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE
AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS OF
THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 76.2W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 70SW 40NW.
34 KT.......170NE 190SE 140SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 270SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 76.2W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 76.9W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 36.0N 74.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 120SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 38.8N 69.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 220SE 150SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 42.5N 65.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 110SW 100NW.
34 KT...220NE 240SE 180SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 46.7N 61.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 240SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 53.0N 52.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...270NE 270SE 270SW 240NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 58.0N 36.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.6N 76.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 06/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2019-09-06 07:58

WTNT65 KNHC 060756
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
400 AM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019

...HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS OCCURRING ALONG THE SOUTHERN OUTER
BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA...

A NOAA weather station at Cape Lookout, North Carolina, located
inside the western portion of Dorian's eye, recently reported a
10-minute average wind of 63 mph (79 km/h). This is equivalent to a
1-minute sustained wind speed of 69 mph (111 km/h). A wind gust to
75 mph (120 km/h) was also reported. However, this weather station
has not reported any data since 300 am EDT.

A Weatherflow station at Fort Macon near Atlantic Beach, North
Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 64 mph (103 km/h)
and a gust to 85 mph (137 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 400 AM EDT...0800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.4N 76.5W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM S OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-06 06:56

WTNT65 KNHC 060654
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
100 AM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019

...HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS OCCURRING JUST OFFSHORE OF CAPE
LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA...

A Weatherflow station at Fort Macon near Atlantic Beach, North
Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 53 mph (85 km/h) and
a wind gust to 68 mph (109 km/h), while a NOAA weather station at
Cape Lookout, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of
49 mph (79 km/h) and a wind gust to 56 mph (90 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 300 AM EDT...0700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.3N 76.7W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSW OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-06 05:47

WTNT35 KNHC 060545
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 51A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
200 AM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019

...DORIAN PRODUCING WIND GUSTS NEAR HURRICANE-FORCE OVER EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.2N 76.8W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSW OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM E OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued south of Wrightsville
Beach, NC.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Wrightsville Beach NC to Poquoson VA
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
* Hampton Roads

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nova Scotia

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North Carolina/Virginia border to Fenwick Island DE
* Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA
* Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard MA

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Prince Edward Island
* Magdalen Islands
* Fundy National Park to Shediac.
* Francois to Boat Harbour.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.
This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of
the United States should monitor the progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 34.2 North, longitude 76.8 West. Dorian is moving
toward the northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed through
Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will move
near or over the coast of North Carolina during the next several
hours. The center should move to the southeast of extreme
southeastern New England tonight and Saturday morning, and then
across Nova Scotia late Saturday or Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow weakening is expected during the next few days.
However, Dorian should remain a powerful hurricane as the center
moves near or along the coast of North Carolina. Dorian is forecast
to become a post-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds by
Saturday night as it approaches Nova Scotia.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220
miles (350 km). A Weatherflow station in Pamlico Sound, North
Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 51 mph (82 km/h) and
a wind gust to 70 mph (113 km/h). The Johnny Mercer Pier NOAA-NOS
station located at Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina, recently
measured a sustained wind of 42 mph (66 km/h) and a gust of 58 mph
(93 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters and surface observations is 958 mb (28.29
inches). A report of 959.2 mb (28.32 inches) was recently measured
at Wrightsville Beach Offshore buoy.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are spreading along portions of the
North Carolina coast. Tropical storm conditions are still affecting
the northern portion of the South Carolina coast.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area in the Mid-Atlantic states later today and over
portions of extreme southeastern Massachusetts tonight or early
Saturday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Surf City to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle
Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 7 ft
Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft
Wrightsville Beach to Surf City NC...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday Night:

South Carolina...Additional amounts up to a half inch, isolated
storm totals of 12 inches.

Eastern North Carolina...Additional 3 to 8 inches, isolated storm
totals of 15 inches.

Far southeast Virginia...3 to 8 inches.

Extreme Southeastern New England...2 to 4 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells will affect much of the southeastern United
States coast from northern Florida through North Carolina during
the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this morning across
eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-09-06 05:03

WTNT65 KNHC 060501
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
100 AM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019

...DORIAN WEAKENS SOME WHILE BRUSHING THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING QUICKLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST...

A Weatherflow station in Pamlico Sound, North Carolina, recently
reported a sustained wind of 51 mph (82 km/h) and a wind gust to 70
mph (113 km/h)and a NOAA weather station at Cape Lookout, North
Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) and
a wind gust to 73 mph (89 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 100 AM EDT...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 77.1W
ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM ENE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SW OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-06 02:55

WTNT45 KNHC 060253
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 51
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

Data from NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter planes and surface
data nearby Dorian indicate that although the central pressure is a
little bit lower, and NOAA Doppler weather radar data from
Wilmington and Morehead City indicate that winds have decreased as
the circulation of the hurricane expands. The initial intensity is
now estimated to be 85 kt.

Dorian is moving toward higher shear, and gradual weakening is
anticipated. As indicated in the previous forecast, extratropical
transition should begin in about 48 hours and be complete by 72
hours. However, Dorian is forecast to maintain hurricane-force-winds
while moving near or over Nova Scotia.

The initial motion is 045 degrees at 11 kt. The hurricane is already
embedded in the southwesterly flow ahead of an eastward moving
mid-latitude trough. This flow pattern should steer the hurricane on
a northeastward track with increasing forward speed. Track guidance
continues to be in remarkably good agreement with this solution, and
the NHC forecast remains in the middle of the guidance envelope. The
current forecast track is very similar to the previous advisory.

The center of Dorian is expected to move very near or over the
coastline of eastern North Carolina and the southern Mid-Atlantic
states during the next day or so. Residents of these areas should
already be prepared for damaging winds, life-threatening storm
surges, and flooding rains. It also appears that Dorian will affect
portions of eastern Canada with hurricane-force winds.

Key Messages:

1. Regardless of the exact track of Dorian's core, life-threatening
storm surge and dangerous winds are expected along portions of the
North Carolina coast, portions of southeast Virginia and the
southern Chesapeake Bay. Water levels could rise well in advance of
the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow
advice given by local emergency officials.

2. Flash flooding is occurring, and will continue to become more
widespread across the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia
overnight. There is a high risk of flash flooding over these
areas, where significant, life-threatening flash flooding is
expected.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 33.8N 77.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 35.0N 75.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 37.2N 72.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 40.2N 67.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 44.5N 63.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 52.5N 55.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 10/0000Z 57.5N 40.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-06 02:54

WTNT35 KNHC 060252
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 51
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

...CORE OF HURRICANE DORIAN BRUSHING THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.8N 77.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SW OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Canadian Hurricane Center has issued a Hurricane Watch for
all of Nova Scotia, a Tropical Storm Watch for Prince Edward Island
and for the Magdalen Islands, and for New Brunswick from Fundy
National Park to Shediac. Also a Tropical Storm Watch was issued for
Newfoundland from Francois to Boat Harbour.

The Tropical Storm Warning south of South Santee River has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Fear to Poquoson VA
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
* Hampton Roads

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nova Scotia

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North Carolina/Virginia border to Fenwick Island DE
* Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA
* Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard MA

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Prince Edward Island
* Magdalen Islands
* Fundy National Park to Shediac.
* Francois to Boat Harbour.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of
the United States, and Atlantic Canada, should continue to monitor
the progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 33.8 North, longitude 77.4 West. Dorian is moving
toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed through
Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will move
near or over the coast of North Carolina tonight and Friday. The
center should move to the southeast of extreme southeastern New
England Friday night and Saturday morning, and approach Nova Scotia
later Saturday or Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow weakening is expected during the next few days.
However, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as the
center moves near the coasts of South and North Carolina. Dorian is
forecast to become a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone by
Saturday night as it approaches Nova Scotia.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles
(350 km). A Weatherflow station located Federal Point, North
Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 61 mph (98 km/h) and
a gust to 75 mph (121 km/h). The Johnny Mercer Pier NOAA-NOS station
located at Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina, recently measured a
sustained wind of 52 mph (84 km/h) and a gust of 63 mph (101 km/h).

The minimum central pressure is estimated to be 958 mb (28.29
inches) based on a recent report of 958.9 mb (28.32 inches) from
Frying Pan Shoals buoy located in Dorian's eye.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are spreading along portions of the
North Carolina coast. Tropical storm conditions are still affecting
the northern portion of the South Carolina coast.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area in the Mid-Atlantic states by Friday and over
portions of extreme southeastern Massachusetts by late Friday or
early Saturday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Fear to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle
Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 7 ft
Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday Night:

South Carolina...Additional amounts up to a half inch, isolated
storm totals of 12 inches.

Eastern North Carolina...Additional 3 to 8 inches, isolated storm
totals of 15 inches.

Far southeast Virginia...3 to 8 inches.

Extreme Southeastern New England...2 to 4 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and
the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through
North Carolina during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible through early Friday across
eastern North Carolina into southeast Virginia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-06 02:53

WTNT25 KNHC 060251
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 51
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
0300 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR
ALL OF NOVA SCOTIA...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
AND FOR MAGDALEN ISLANDS...AND FOR NEW BRUNSWICK FROM FUNDY NATIONAL
PARK TO SHEDIAC. ALSO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR
NEWFOUNDLAND FROM FRANCOIS TO BOAT HARBOUR.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO POQUOSON VA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS
* HAMPTON ROADS

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NOVA SCOTIA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO FENWICK ISLAND DE
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT SOUTHWARD
* TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MA
* NANTUCKET AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD MA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* MAGDALEN ISLANDS
* FUNDY NATIONAL PARK TO SHEDIAC.
* FRANCOIS TO BOAT HARBOUR.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A DEPICTION
OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS
A
LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS
SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM
RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS OF
THE UNITED STATES...AND ATLANTIC CANADA...SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 77.4W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 90SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT.......170NE 190SE 130SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 270SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 77.4W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 77.9W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 35.0N 75.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 190SE 130SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 37.2N 72.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 190SE 130SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 40.2N 67.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 250SE 200SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 44.5N 63.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 250SE 200SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 52.5N 55.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...270NE 270SE 200SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 57.5N 40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.8N 77.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 06/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

>

2019-09-06 01:54

WTNT65 KNHC 060152
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1000 PM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST...

A weather station located near Fort Fisher Monument, North Carolina,
recently reported a sustained wind of 60 mph (97 km/h) and a wind
gust to 74 mph (119 km/h). A Weatherflow site located at Federal
Point, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 59 mph
(95 km/h) and a wind gust to 75 mph (121 km/h).

A buoy at Frying Pan Shoals, North Carolina, located in the southern
portion of the Dorian's eye, recently measured a pressure of
958.9 mb...28.32 inches.


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.6N 77.7W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM S OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SW OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-06 00:59

WTNT65 KNHC 060057
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
900 PM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST...

A buoy at Frying Pan Shoals, North Carolina, located in the eastern
portion of the Dorian's eye, recently measured a pressure of
959.8 mb...28.34 inches.

An observation from a buoy near Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina,
recently reported a sustained wind of 42 mph (68 km/h) and a wind
gust to 58 mph (94 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 900 PM EDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.5N 77.8W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM S OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SW OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-06 00:01

WTNT35 KNHC 052359
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 50A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

...EYEWALL OF DORIAN VERY NEAR CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.4N 78.0W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM S OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM KM S OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued west of Cape Fear.

The Hurricane Warning from Edisto Beach SC to the South Santee
River has been changed to Tropical Storm Warning.

The Tropical Storm Warning south of Edisto Beach has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Fear to Poquoson VA
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
* Hampton Roads

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North Carolina/Virginia border to Fenwick Island DE
* Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA
* Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard MA

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of
the United States, and Atlantic Canada, should continue to monitor
the progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 33.4 North, longitude 78.0 West. Dorian is moving
toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed through
Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will move
near or over the coast of North Carolina tonight and Friday. The
center should move to the southeast of extreme southeastern New
England Friday night and Saturday morning, and approach Nova Scotia
later Saturday or Saturday night.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 100 mph (160
km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected during the next
few days. However, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane
as the center moves near the coasts of South and North Carolina.
Dorian is forecast to become a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone
by Saturday night as it approaches Nova Scotia.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220
miles (350 km). Frying Pan Shoals just reported a peak gust of
70 mph (113 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft
data is 964 mb (28.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are beginning to spread along portions
of the North Carolina coast. Tropical storm conditions are still
affecting the northern portion of the South Carolina coast.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area in the Mid-Atlantic states by Friday and over
portions of extreme southeastern Massachusetts by late Friday or
early Saturday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Fear to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle
Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 7 ft
Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Coastal Carolinas...6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
Far southeast Virginia...3 to 8 inches
Extreme southeastern New England...2 to 4 inches

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and
the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through
North Carolina during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible through early Friday across
eastern North Carolina into southeast Virginia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-05 22:59

WTNT65 KNHC 052257
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
700 PM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST...

A buoy at Frying Pan Shoals, North Carolina recently measured
sustained winds of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a gust to 78 mph (126 km/h).

An observation from Myrtle Beach, SC, recently reported a sustained
wind of 41 mph (67 km/h) and a wind gust of 52 mph (83 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.3N 78.1W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2019-09-05 22:19

WTNT65 KNHC 052217 CCA
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
600 PM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

Corrected sustained maximum winds and present movement in table.

...DORIAN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...

A buoy at Frying Pan Shoals, North Carolina recently measured
sustained winds of 50 mph (80 km/h) and a gust to 64 mph (104 km/h).

An observation from Southport, NC, recently reported a sustained
wind of 50 mph (80 km/h) and a wind gust of 60 mph (96 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.2N 78.2W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2019-09-05 22:01

WTNT65 KNHC 052158
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
600 PM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

...DORIAN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...

A buoy at Frying Pan Shoals, North Carolina recently measured
sustained winds of 50 mph (80 km/h) and a gust to 64 mph (104 km/h).

An observation from Southport, NC, recently reported a sustained
wind of 50 mph (80 km/h) and a wind gust of 60 mph (96 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.2N 78.2W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2019-09-05 20:53

WTNT45 KNHC 052051
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 50
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 PM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

During the last 12 h, Dorian appears to have started the expected
slow weakening trend. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data show
that the central pressure inside the 35-45 n mi wide eye is slowly
rising, and satellite imagery indicates that the eye is becoming
less well defined. The current Hurricane Hunter aircraft has
reported maximum SFMR surface wind estimates of 88 kt, along with
700 mb flight-level winds of 91 kt. Based on these data, the initial
intensity is reduced to 90 kt.

The hurricane is continuing its expected northeastward turn, and the
initial motion is now 035/9. The mid-latitude westerlies should
steer Dorian generally northeastward at an increasing forward speed,
with the eye passing near of over portions of the North Carolina
coast during the next 12-24 h. After that, Dorian is forecast to
move quickly across the northwest Atlantic and be near or over the
Canadian Maritimes/Atlantic provinces by 60 h. As was the case in
the previous advisory, the track guidance remains tightly clustered,
and the new forecast track is changed little from the previous
one.

Due to increasing shear, Dorian is forecast to slowly weaken as it
moves near and along the South and North Carolina coasts.
Extratropical transition should begin around 36-48 h and be complete
by 60 h, although Dorian is forecast to maintain hurricane-force
winds through the transition. After transition is complete, the
extratropical low should weaken over the far north Atlantic and be
absorbed into a larger low pressure area by 120 h.

The center of Dorian is expected to move very near or over the
coastline of the Carolinas and the southern Mid-Atlantic states.
Residents of these areas should already be prepared for damaging
winds, life-threatening storm surges, and flooding rains. It also
appears that Dorian will affect portion of eastern Canada as a
hurricane-force extratropical low.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected
along portions the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and
portions of southeast Virginia and the southern Chesapeake Bay,
regardless of the exact track of Dorian's center. Water levels
could rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents
in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency
officials.

2. Flash flooding is occurring, and will continue to become more
widespread across the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia
through tonight. There is a high risk of flash flooding over these
areas, where significant, life-threatening, flash flooding is
expected.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 33.1N 78.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 34.2N 77.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 36.0N 74.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 38.5N 70.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 42.0N 65.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 50.0N 57.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/1800Z 56.0N 45.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-05 20:52

WTNT35 KNHC 052050
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 50
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 PM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

...EYE OF DORIAN PASSING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH
CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.1N 78.5W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SSE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch from Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach,
Massachusetts, and for Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket has been
changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.

The Hurricane Warning from Savannah River to south of Edisto Beach,
South Carolina has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued south of Little River
Inlet.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Little River Inlet to Poquoson VA
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
* Hampton Roads

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach SC to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Savannah River to south of Edisto Beach SC
* North Carolina/Virginia border to Fenwick Island DE
* Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA
* Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard MA

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of
the United States, and Atlantic Canada, should continue to monitor
the progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 33.1 North, longitude 78.5 West. Dorian is moving
toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed through
Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will continue
to move close to the coast of eastern South Carolina for the next
several hours, and then move near or over the coast of North
Carolina tonight and Friday. The center should move to the
southeast of extreme southeastern New England Friday night and
Saturday morning, and approach Nova Scotia later Saturday or
Saturday night.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are now near 105 mph (165 km/h) with
higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected during the next few days.
However, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as the
center moves near the coasts of South and North Carolina. Dorian
is forecast to become a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone by
Saturday night as it approaches Nova Scotia.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles
(350 km). NOAA buoy 41004 to the southwest of the eye recently
reported sustained winds of 60 mph (97 km/h) and a wind gust of 74
mph (118 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft data
is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are now occuring along portions of the
South Carolina coast northeast of Charleston and should continue for
a few more hours. Tropical storm conditions are currently affecting
other portions of the South Carolina coast.

Tropical storm conditions are spreading along the coast of North
Carolina, and hurricane conditions are expected to begin during the
next few hours.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area in the Mid-Atlantic states by Friday and over
portions of extreme southeastern Massachusetts by late Friday or
early Saturday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Little River Inlet to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle
Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 7 ft
Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Coastal Carolinas...6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
Far southeast Virginia...3 to 8 inches
Extreme southeastern New England...2 to 4 inches

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and
the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through
North Carolina during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible through early Friday across
eastern North Carolina into southeast Virginia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-05 20:52

WTNT25 KNHC 052049
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 50
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
2100 UTC THU SEP 05 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS...AND FOR MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET HAS
BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH OF EDISTO
BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER
INLET.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET TO POQUOSON VA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS
* HAMPTON ROADS

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SC TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH OF EDISTO BEACH SC
* NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO FENWICK ISLAND DE
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT SOUTHWARD
* TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MA
* NANTUCKET AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD MA

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.
THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE
AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS OF
THE UNITED STATES...AND ATLANTIC CANADA...SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 78.5W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
EYE DIAMETER 40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 90SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT.......170NE 190SE 130SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 300SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 78.5W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 78.9W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 34.2N 77.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 190SE 130SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 36.0N 74.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 190SE 130SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 38.5N 70.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 190SE 130SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 42.0N 65.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 190SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 50.0N 57.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...270NE 270SE 200SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 56.0N 45.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.1N 78.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 06/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2019-09-05 19:59

WTNT65 KNHC 051957
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
400 PM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

...DORIAN PRODUCING DANGEROUS WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND FLOODING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINA...

NOAA buoy 41004 recently measured sustained winds of 67 mph (108
km/h) and a gust to 83 mph (133 km/h) in the southern eyewall of
Dorian.

The Weatherflow site in Winyah Bay, SC, recently reported a
sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a wind gust of 65 mph (105
km/h) at a height of 50 ft.

A wind gust of 55 mph (89 km/h) was recently reported at a
Weatherflow site in Georgetown, SC, and a gust of 52 mph (84 km/h)
recently reported by a Weatherflow site at Murrells Inlet, SC.


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.9N 78.6W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan

>

2019-09-05 18:57

WTNT65 KNHC 051855
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
300 PM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

...HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...

NOAA buoy 41004 recently measured sustained winds of 85 mph (137
km/h) and a gust to 98 mph (158 km/h) in the southern eyewall of
Dorian.

The Weatherflow site in Winyah Bay, SC recently reported a wind gust
of 88 mph (142 km/h) at a height of 50 ft.

SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.8N 78.7W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM S OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-05 17:53

WTNT35 KNHC 051751
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 49A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

...EYE OF DORIAN JUST OFFSHORE OF CAPE ROMAIN SOUTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.8N 78.9W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM S OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the coast of
Georgia.

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued south of South Santee
River, South Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River SC to Poquoson VA
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
* Hampton Roads

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Savannah River to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North Carolina/Virginia border to Fenwick Island DE
* Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA
* Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard MA

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of
the United States, and Atlantic Canada, should continue to monitor
the progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 32.8 North, longitude 78.9 West. Dorian is moving
toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the
northeast is anticipated by tonight, and a northeastward motion at a
faster forward speed is forecast on Friday. On the forecast track,
the center of Dorian will continue to move close to the coast of
South Carolina this afternoon, and then move near or over the coast
of North Carolina tonight and Friday. The center should move to the
southeast of extreme southeastern New England Friday night and
Saturday morning, and approach Nova Scotia later on Saturday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow weakening is expected during the next few days.
However, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as the
center moves near the coasts of South and North Carolina.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km). The Weatherflow station at Winyah Bay, South
Carolina, recently reported sustained winds of 77 mph (124 km/h) and
a wind gust of 85 mph (137 km/h). A buoy operated by the Coastal
Ocean Research and Monitoring Program 15 miles northeast of the
entrance to Charleston Harbor recently reported a wind gust of
92 mph (148 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
buoy data is 958 mb (28.29 inches). NOAA buoy 41004 reported a
minimum pressure of 959.4 mb (28.33 inches) as the eye passed over
it.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are now occuring along portions of the
South Carolina coast northeast of Charleston and should continue for
the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are currently
affecting other portions of the South Carolina coast.

Tropical storm conditions are spreading along the coast of North
Carolina, and hurricane conditions are expected to begin during the
next several hours.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area in the Mid-Atlantic states by Friday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of
southeastern Massachusetts by late Friday or early Saturday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

South Santee River SC to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle
Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 7 ft
Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Coastal Carolinas...6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
Far southeast Virginia...3 to 8 inches
Extreme southeastern New England...2 to 4 inches

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and
the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through
North Carolina during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible through this afternoon across
eastern North Carolina and the upper South Carolina coast. The
tornado threat will continue tonight across eastern North Carolina
into southeast Virginia. Several tornadoes have been reported
across portions of eastern South Carolina and southern North
Carolina.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-05 16:58

WTNT65 KNHC 051655 CCA
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
100 PM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS OCCURING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR...

Multiple observing stations located in and around Charleston Harbor
have reported wind gusts of 75-80 mph (120-129 km/h) within the last
hour.

A Weatherflow site in Winyah Bay, SC recently reported a wind gust
of 86 mph (138 km/h) at a height of 50 ft.


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.7N 79.0W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-05 16:15

WTNT65 KNHC 051612 CCA
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1200 PM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

Corrected maximum sustained winds in table.

...DORIAN BRINGING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WINDS, HEAVY
RAINFALL, AND TORNADOES TO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...

A Weatherflow site at Shutes Folly in Charleston Harbor recently
reported a wind gust of 78 mph (126 km/h).

An unofficial observing station at Ft Johnson on James Island
recently reported a wind gust of 74 mph (119 km/h).

A Weatherflow site in Winyah Bay, SC recently reported a wind gust
of 78 mph (126 km/h) at a height of 50 ft.

NOAA buoy 41004 just reported a minimum pressure of 959 mb (28.32
inches) very near the middle of the eye of Dorian.


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.6N 79.1W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Brennan

>

2019-09-05 16:02

WTNT65 KNHC 051600
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1200 PM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

...DORIAN BRINGING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WINDS, HEAVY
RAINFALL, AND TORNADOES TO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...

A Weatherflow site at Shutes Folly in Charleston Harbor recently
reported a wind gust of 78 mph (126 km/h).

An unofficial observing station at Ft Johnson on James Island
recently reported a wind gust of 74 mph (119 km/h).

A Weatherflow site in Winyah Bay, SC recently reported a wind gust
of 78 mph (126 km/h) at a height of 50 ft.

NOAA buoy 41004 just reported a minimum pressure of 959 mb (28.32
inches) very near the middle of the eye of Dorian.


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.6N 79.1W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-05 14:57

WTNT45 KNHC 051455
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 49
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

The latest NOAA Doppler radar data, along with Air Force Reserve and
NOAA Hurricane Hunter reports, indicate that Dorian has an well-
defined eye with a diameter of about 40 n mi, with the northwestern
edge of the eyewall not far from the South Carolina coast. The
Hurricane Hunter data indicate that the flight-level and SFMR
surface winds have decreased some since 12 h ago, accompanied by a
rise in the central pressure. Based on this, the initial intensity
is decreased to a possibly generous 95 kt. The central pressure of
958 mb is based partly on data from NOAA buoy 41004, which is
currently inside the eye.

Dorian has nudged eastward during the past several hours and the
initial motion is now 020/7. The hurricane is now moving into the
mid-latitude westerlies, and during the next several hours it is
expected to turn northeastward with an increase in forward speed.
This should bring the eye near or over the coasts of eastern South
Carolina and southeastern North Carolina during the next 12-24 h.
After that, Dorian is forecast to move quickly across the northwest
Atlantic and be near or over the Canadian Maritimes/Atlantic
provinces by 72 h. The track guidance remains tightly clustered,
and the new forecast track is changed little from the previous
forecast.

Dorian is forecast to slowly weaken as it moves along the South and
North Carolina coasts. Extratropical transition should begin
around 48 h and be complete by 72 h, although Dorian is forecast
to maintain hurricane-force winds through the transition. After
72 h, the extratropical low should weaken over the far north
Atlantic.

The center of Dorian is expected to move very near or over the
coastline of the Carolinas and the southern Mid-Atlantic states.
Residents of these areas should already be prepared for damaging
winds, life-threatening storm surges, and flooding rains.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected
along portions the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and
portions of southeast Virginia and the southern Chesapeake Bay,
regardless of the exact track of Dorian's center. Water levels
could rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents
in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency
officials.

2. Flash flooding will become more widespread across the eastern
Carolinas and far southeast Virginia today into tonight. There is a
high risk of flash flooding over these areas, where significant,
life-threatening, flash flooding is expected.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 32.5N 79.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 33.5N 78.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 35.1N 75.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 37.2N 72.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 40.1N 68.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 48.0N 59.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/1200Z 54.5N 48.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/1200Z 59.5N 32.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-05 14:56

WTNT35 KNHC 051454
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 49
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

...EYEWALL OF DORIAN JUST OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.5N 79.1W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to Fenwick
Island, Delaware, and also extended northward in the Chesapeake Bay
to Drum Point, including the Tidal Potomac River south of Cobb
Island.

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued south of Edisto Beach,
South Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach SC to Poquoson VA
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
* Hampton Roads

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Savannah River to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North Carolina/Virginia border to Fenwick Island DE
* Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Altamaha Sound GA to Savannah River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA
* Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard MA

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of
the United States, and Atlantic Canada, should continue to monitor
the progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was
located near latitude 32.5 North, longitude 79.1 West. Dorian is
moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast is anticipated by tonight, and a northeastward
motion at a faster forward speed is forecast on Friday. On the
forecast track, the center of Dorian will continue to move close to
the coast of South Carolina today, and then move near or over the
coast of North Carolina tonight and Friday. The center should move
to the southeast of extreme southeastern New England Friday night
and Saturday morning, and approach Nova Scotia later on Saturday.

Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 110 mph (175
km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected during the
next few days. However, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful
hurricane as the center moves near the coasts of South and North
Carolina.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km). The Weatherflow station at Winyah Bay, South Carolina,
recently reported sustained winds of 60 mph (97 km/h) and a wind
gust of 76 mph (122 km/h). Charleston International Airport
recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph (64 km/h) and a wind
gust of 56 mph (91 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches).
NOAA buoy 41004, currently located inside the eye, has reported a
minimum pressure of 959.7 mb (28.34 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are currently affecting portions of
the Georgia and South Carolina coasts. Hurricane conditions are
expected along portions of the South Carolina coast during the next
several hours.

Tropical storm conditions are spreading along the coast of North
Carolina, and hurricane conditions are expected to begin later
today.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area in the Mid-Atlantic states by Friday, with tropical
storm conditions possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area Friday
or Friday night.

Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of
southeastern Massachusetts by late Friday or early Saturday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Awendaw SC to Myrtle Beach SC...5 to 8 ft
Myrtle Beach SC to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 7 ft
Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft
Edisto Beach SC to Awendaw SC...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Coastal Carolinas...6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
Far southeast Virginia...3 to 8 inches
Extreme southeastern New England...2 to 4 inches

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and
the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through
North Carolina during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible through this afternoon across
eastern North Carolina and the upper South Carolina coast. The
tornado threat will continue tonight across eastern North Carolina
into southeast Virginia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-05 14:56

WTNT25 KNHC 051454
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 49
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
1500 UTC THU SEP 05 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO FENWICK
ISLAND DELAWARE...AND ALSO EXTENDED NORTHWARD IN THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY TO DRUM POINT...INCLUDING THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER SOUTH OF COBB
ISLAND.

THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF EDISTO
BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SC TO POQUOSON VA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS
* HAMPTON ROADS

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO FENWICK ISLAND DE
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT SOUTHWARD
* TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND
* ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO SAVANNAH RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MA
* NANTUCKET AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD MA

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.
THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE
AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS OF
THE UNITED STATES...AND ATLANTIC CANADA...SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 79.1W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
EYE DIAMETER 40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT.......170NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 150SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 79.1W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 79.2W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 33.5N 78.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 90SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 35.1N 75.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 110SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 37.2N 72.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 40.1N 68.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 48.0N 59.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...270NE 270SE 200SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 54.5N 48.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 59.5N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.5N 79.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 05/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2019-09-05 13:59

WTNT65 KNHC 051357
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1000 AM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

...DORIAN BRINGING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WINDS, HEAVY
RAINFALL, AND TORNADOES TO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...

A Weatherflow site at Shutes Folly in Charleston Harbor recently
reported a wind gust of 73 mph (117 km/h).

The official observing site at the airport in North Myrtle Beach,
South Carolina, recently reported a wind gust of 61 mph (98 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.3N 79.2W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan

>

2019-09-05 13:01

WTNT65 KNHC 051259
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
900 AM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

...RAIN BANDS FROM DORIAN PRODUCING TORNADOES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

The official observing site at the airport in Charleston, South
Carolina, recently observed sustained winds of 39 mph (63 km/h) and
a wind gust of 63 mph (102 km/h).

A Coastal Ocean Research Monitoring buoy located about 10 miles (15
km/h) south-southeast of Beaufort, South Carolina, reported
sustained winds of 60 mph (97 km/h) with a gust to 92 mph (148
km/h).

NOAA Buoy 41004, located about 45 miles southeast of Charleston,
South Carolina, reported a sustained wind of 71 mph (115 km/h) with
a gust to 83 mph (133 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 900 AM EDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.2N 79.2W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-05 11:56

WTNT35 KNHC 051153
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 48A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

...EYE OF DORIAN NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.1N 79.3W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Savannah River to Poquoson VA
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
* Hampton Roads

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Savannah River to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague VA
* Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Chincoteague VA to Fenwick Island DE
* Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Drum Point
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA
* Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard MA

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of
the United States, and Atlantic Canada, should continue to monitor
the progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 32.1 North, longitude 79.3 West. Dorian is now moving
toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward
the northeast is anticipated by tonight, and a northeastward motion
at a faster forward speed is forecast on Friday. On the forecast
track, the center of Dorian will continue to move close to the coast
of South Carolina today, and then move near or over the coast of
North Carolina tonight and Friday. The center should move to the
southeast of extreme southeastern New England Friday night and
Saturday morning, and approach Nova Scotia later on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected
this morning, followed by slow weakening through Saturday. However,
Dorian is expected to remain a hurricane for the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to
195 miles (315 km). NOAA buoy 41004, located a short distance north
of the eye, recently reported sustained winds of 60 mph (97 km/h)
and a wind gust of 76 mph (122 km/h). Charleston International
Airport recently reported a wind gust of 61 mph (98 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter data is 959 mb (28.32 inches). NOAA buoy 41004
recently reported a pressure of 976.0 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are currently affecting portions of
the Georgia and South Carolina coasts. Hurricane conditions are
expected along portions of the South Carolina coast later this
morning.

Tropical storm conditions are spreading along the coast of North
Carolina, and hurricane conditions are expected to begin later
today.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area in the Mid-Atlantic states by Friday, with tropical
storm conditions possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area Friday
or Friday night.

Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of
southeastern Massachusetts by late Friday or early Saturday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Isle of Palms to Myrtle Beach SC...5 to 8 ft
Myrtle Beach SC to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 7 ft
Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft
Savannah River to Isle of Palms SC...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Coastal Carolinas...6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
Far Southeast Virginia...3 to 8 inches
Coastal Georgia...1 to 2 inches
Extreme southeastern New England...2 to 4 inches

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and
the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through
North Carolina during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through this afternoon near
the coastal South and North Carolina border area. This threat will
expand northeastward across the rest of eastern North Carolina
during the afternoon and continue into tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-05 11:00

WTNT65 KNHC 051058
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
700 AM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST...

A Weatherflow station at Winyah Bay, South Carolina recently
reported sustained winds of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a wind gust of
58 mph (93 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 700 AM EDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 79.3W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-05 09:58

WTNT65 KNHC 050956
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
600 AM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

...HEAVY SQUALLS BEGINNING TO AFFECT EXTREME SOUTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA...

A wind gust to 64 mph (103 km/h) was recently reported at Federal
Point, just south of Kure Beach, North Carolina.


SUMMARY OF 600 AM EDT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.8N 79.4W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-05 09:22

WTNT35 KNHC 050919 CCA
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 48...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

Corrected rainfall statement

...DORIAN CONTINUES TO LASH THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.7N 79.5W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued south of the Savannah
River.

The Hurricane Watch has been discontinued south of the Savannah
River. The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of
Altamaha Sound, Georgia.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from Woods Hole to Sagamore
Beach, Massachusetts, including Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Savannah River to Poquoson VA
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
* Hampton Roads

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Savannah River to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague VA
* Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Chincoteague VA to Fenwick Island DE
* Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Drum Point
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA
* Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard MA

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of
the United States, and Atlantic Canada, should continue to monitor
the progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 79.5 West. Dorian is moving
toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn to the north-
northeast is anticipated today, with a turn toward the northeast by
tonight. A northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is
forecast on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian
will continue to move close to the coast of South Carolina through
the day, and then move near or over the coast of North Carolina
tonight and Friday. The center should move to the southeast of
extreme southeastern New England Friday night and Saturday morning,
and approach Nova Scotia later on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected
this morning, followed by slow weakening through Saturday.
However, Dorian is expected to remain a hurricane for the next few
days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km). The National Weather Service Forecast Office in
Charleston, South Carolina, recently reported a wind gust to 68 mph
(109 km/h) at the Charleston International Airport.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are currently affecting portions of
the Georgia and South Carolina coasts. Hurricane conditions are
expected along portions of the South Carolina coast later this
morning.

Tropical storm conditions will begin along the coast of North
Carolina within the next couple of hours, with hurricane conditions
beginning later today.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area in the Mid-Atlantic states by Friday, with tropical
storm conditions possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area Friday
or Friday night.

Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of
southeastern Massachusetts by late Friday or early Saturday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Isle of Palms to Myrtle Beach SC...5 to 8 ft
Savannah River to Isle of Palms SC...4 to 7 ft
Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Lookout NC...4 to 7 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 6 ft
Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Coastal Carolinas...6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
Far Southeast Virginia...3 to 8 inches
Coastal Georgia...1 to 2 inches
Extreme southeastern New England...2 to 4 inches

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and
the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through
North Carolina during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through this afternoon near
the coastal South and North Carolina border area. This threat will
expand northeastward across the rest of eastern North Carolina
during the afternoon and continue into tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2019-09-05 08:53

WTNT45 KNHC 050851
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 48
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

Dorian continues to exhibit a large eye of about 50 n mi in
diameter on satellite and radar images. Earlier data from
hurricane hunter aircraft indicate little change to the minimum
central pressure, and flight-level winds still support an intensity
close to 100 kt at this time. Dorian should soon begin to
experience increasing southwesterly shear, which should lead to at
least slow weakening during the next couple of days. The official
forecast maintains the cyclone at hurricane strength through 72
hours, which is in general agreement with the LGEM guidance and on
the high side of the guidance suite. By 72 hours, the global models
show Dorian becoming embedded within a baroclinic zone, and
simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF model depicts a highly
asymmetric cloud pattern. Therefore, the NHC forecast shows the
system becoming extratropical by that time.

Dorian's initial motion is about 010/6 kt. The hurricane is
currently moving through a break in the subtropical ridge. Within
a day or so, the cyclone should turn northeastward with increasing
forward speed in response to a broad mid-tropospheric trough to the
north. The official track forecast remains in good agreement with
the dynamical model consensus. The forecast track and wind radii
now require the issuance of a tropical storm watch for extreme
southeastern New England.

The center of Dorian is still expected to move very near or over
the coastline of the Carolinas and the southern Mid-Atlantic
states. Residents of these areas should already be prepared for
damaging winds, life-threatening storm surges, and flooding rains.


Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected
along portions the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and
portions of southeast Virginia and the southern Chesapeake Bay,
regardless of the exact track of Dorian's center. Water levels
could rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds.
Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local
emergency officials.

2. Flash flooding will become increasingly likely across the eastern
Carolinas today. There is a high risk of flash flooding over
coastal sections of the Carolinas where life-threatening flash
flooding is expected.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 31.7N 79.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 32.7N 78.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 34.2N 77.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 36.1N 74.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 38.3N 70.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 46.0N 61.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/0600Z 53.0N 52.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/0600Z 58.0N 38.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2019-09-05 08:52

WTNT35 KNHC 050850
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 48
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

...DORIAN CONTINUES TO LASH THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.7N 79.5W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued south of the Savannah
River.

The Hurricane Watch has been discontinued south of the Savannah
River. The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of
Altamaha Sound, Georgia.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from Woods Hole to Sagamore
Beach, Massachusetts, including Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Savannah River to Poquoson VA
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
* Hampton Roads

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Savannah River to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague VA
* Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Chincoteague VA to Fenwick Island DE
* Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Drum Point
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA
* Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard MA

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of
the United States, and Atlantic Canada, should continue to monitor
the progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 79.5 West. Dorian is moving
toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn to the north-
northeast is anticipated today, with a turn toward the northeast by
tonight. A northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is
forecast on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian
will continue to move close to the coast of South Carolina through
the day, and then move near or over the coast of North Carolina
tonight and Friday. The center should move to the southeast of
extreme southeastern New England Friday night and Saturday morning,
and approach Nova Scotia later on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected
this morning, followed by slow weakening through Saturday.
However, Dorian is expected to remain a hurricane for the next few
days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km). The National Weather Service Forecast Office in
Charleston, South Carolina, recently reported a wind gust to 68 mph
(109 km/h) at the Charleston International Airport.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are currently affecting portions of
the Georgia and South Carolina coasts. Hurricane conditions are
expected along portions of the South Carolina coast later this
morning.

Tropical storm conditions will begin along the coast of North
Carolina within the next couple of hours, with hurricane conditions
beginning later today.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area in the Mid-Atlantic states by Friday, with tropical
storm conditions possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area Friday
or Friday night.

Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of
southeastern Massachusetts by late Friday or early Saturday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Isle of Palms to Myrtle Beach SC...5 to 8 ft
Savannah River to Isle of Palms SC...4 to 7 ft
Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Lookout NC...4 to 7 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 6 ft
Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Coastal Carolinas...6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
Coastal Georgia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches
Far southeast Virginia...3 to 6 inches
Extreme southeastern New England...2 to 4 inches

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and
the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through
North Carolina during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through this afternoon near
the coastal South and North Carolina border area. This threat will
expand northeastward across the rest of eastern North Carolina
during the afternoon and continue into tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2019-09-05 08:51

WTNT25 KNHC 050849
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 48
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
0900 UTC THU SEP 05 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH
RIVER.

THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH
RIVER. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF
ALTAMAHA SOUND...GEORGIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE
BEACH...MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING NANTUCKET AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO POQUOSON VA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS
* HAMPTON ROADS

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT SOUTHWARD

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE VA TO FENWICK ISLAND DE
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO DRUM POINT
* TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MA
* NANTUCKET AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD MA

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS OF
THE UNITED STATES...AND ATLANTIC CANADA...SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 79.5W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT.......170NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 250SE 150SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 79.5W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 79.6W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 32.7N 78.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 90SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 34.2N 77.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 110SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 36.1N 74.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 38.3N 70.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 46.0N 61.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...270NE 270SE 200SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 53.0N 52.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 58.0N 38.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.7N 79.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 05/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2019-09-05 08:00

WTNT65 KNHC 050758
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
400 AM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

...RAINBANDS FROM DORIAN CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COAST FROM GEORGIA
TO SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...

A sustained wind of 42 mph (68 km/h) and a gust of 56 mph (90 km/h)
was recently reported at Murrells Inlet, South Carolina.


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EDT...0800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.6N 79.5W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 215 MI...330 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-05 06:58

WTNT65 KNHC 050656
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
300 AM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

...WATER LEVELS GRADUALLY RISING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST...

A sustained wind of 50 mph (80 km/h) and a gust of 61 mph (98 km/h)
was recently reported at Winyah Bay, South Carolina.

A wind gust of 52 mph (84 km/h) was reported at the Georgetown
Airport in South Carolina.


SUMMARY OF 300 AM EDT...0700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.5N 79.6W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-05 05:56

WTNT35 KNHC 050554
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 47A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
200 AM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

...DORIAN EXPECTED TO BRING DAMAGING WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING
STORM SURGES ALONG A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC
COASTS OF THE UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.4N 79.6W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of St. Mary's River to Poquoson VA
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
* Hampton Roads

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* North of Savannah River to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of St. Mary's River to Savannah River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of St. Mary's River to Savannah River
* North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague VA
* Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Chincoteague VA to Fenwick Island DE
* Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Drum Point
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic coast of the United
States should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as
additional watches or warnings may be required later today.
Interests in southeastern New England should also monitor the
progress of the hurricane.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 79.6 West. Dorian is moving
toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the north-
northeast is anticipated today, with a turn toward the northeast
tonight. A northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is
forecast on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian
will continue to approach the coast of South Carolina this morning,
move near or over the coast of South Carolina later today, and then
move near or over the coast of North Carolina tonight and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected
this morning, followed by slow weakening through Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km). A sustained wind of 49 mph (79 km/h) with a gust
to 57 mph (92 km/h) was recently reported at Winyah Bay, South
Carolina.

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force plane was 957
mb (28.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are currently affecting portions of
the Georgia and South Carolina coasts. Hurricane conditions are
expected along portions of the South Carolina coast later this
morning.

Tropical storm conditions will begin along the coast of North
Carolina later this morning, with hurricane conditions beginning
later today.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area in the Mid-Atlantic states by Friday, with tropical
storm conditions possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area Friday
or Friday night.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Isle of Palms to Myrtle Beach SC...5 to 8 ft
Savannah River to Isle of Palms SC...4 to 7 ft
Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Lookout NC...4 to 7 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 6 ft
North of Mouth of St. Mary's River to Savannah River...3 to 5 ft
Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Coastal Carolinas...6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Coastal Georgia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches
Far southeast Virginia...3 to 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and
the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through
North Carolina during the next several days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes will be possible through today
across the coastal Carolinas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2019-09-05 04:58

WTNT65 KNHC 050456
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
100 AM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INVESTIGATING DORIAN...

A sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust of 65 mph (105
km/h) was recently reported near Fort Sumter, South Carolina.

A sustained wind of 41 mph (66 km/h) and a gust of 61 mph (98 km/h)
was recently reported at the Isle of Palms Pier in South Carolina.


SUMMARY OF 100 AM EDT...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.3N 79.6W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-05 03:57

WTNT65 KNHC 050355
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1200 AM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

...SUSTAINED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING ALONG THE GEORGIA
AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS...

A NOAA weather station on the north end of Folly Island, South
Carolina, reported a sustained wind of 51 mph (82 km/h) and a gust
of 62 mph (100 km/h) within the past hour.

A sustained wind of 41 mph (66 km/h) and a gust of 55 mph (89 km/h)
was recently reported at Shutes Folly in Charleston Harbor.


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM EDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.3N 79.6W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-05 02:57

WTNT45 KNHC 050255
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019

Satellite imagery indicated that the cloud pattern associated with
Dorian was a little better organized with a clear eye surrounded
by a ring of very deep convection. This trend was confirmed with
data from both NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance planes, which
measured a minimum central pressure of 955 mb. SFMR and flight-level
winds support an initial intensity of 100 kt. In fact, Dvorak
numbers also call for 100 kt.

Dorian could maintain this intensity for about 12 hours or so,
but guidance is showing shear increasing, and that should result
in gradual weakening. The intensity forecast is basically the same
as the previous advisory, keeping Dorian at the border of category 2
or 3 intensity as it moves near the southeast coast of the United
States. This forecast is consistent with the intensity models, which
unanimously gradually weaken the cyclone. On the other hand, the
wind field is expected to gradually expand during the next several
days until the cyclone becomes extratropical near Atlantic Canada.

Aircraft fixes yield a northward motion or 010 degrees at 6 kt.
Dorian is already recurving as it is becoming steered by the south-
southwesterly flow ahead of an eastward-moving mid-level trough. The
track guidance is tightly clustered, and the NHC forecast follows
very closely the multi-model consensus. No significant change to
the previous track forecast was necessary. The forecast motion
should bring the core of Dorian near the coast of South Carolina
during the next 6 to 12 hours and over the Outer Banks of North
Carolina between 24 and 36 hours.

Since the NHC track prediction continues to take Dorian dangerously
close to the southeast U.S. coast, all interests from Georgia
to the Carolinas should remain vigilant to the possibility of
experiencing destructive winds, flooding rains, and life-
threatening storm surges from this hurricane.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected
along portions the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North
Carolina, and portions of southeast Virginia and the southern
Chesapeake Bay, regardless of the exact track of Dorian's center.
Water levels could rise well in advance of the arrival of strong
winds. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local
emergency officials.

2. Flash flooding will become increasingly likely across coastal
Georgia into the eastern Carolinas overnight. On Thursday, there is
a high risk of flash flooding over coastal sections of the
Carolinas, where significant, life-threatening, flash flooding is
expected.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 31.3N 79.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 32.2N 79.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 33.6N 78.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 35.2N 75.9W 85 KT 100 MPH...OVER NC OUTER BANKS
48H 07/0000Z 37.5N 72.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 45.0N 62.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 53.5N 52.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/0000Z 58.0N 38.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-05 02:57

WTNT35 KNHC 050255
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE WITH SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING
IS EXPECTED ALONG A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC
COASTS OF THE UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.3N 79.6W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All watches and warnings for the east coast of Florida south of
the Mouth of St. Mary's River have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of St. Mary's River to Poquoson VA
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
* Hampton Roads

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* North of Savannah River to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of St. Mary's River to Savannah River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of St. Mary's River to Savannah River
* North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague VA
* Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Chincoteague VA to Fenwick Island DE
* Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Drum Point
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic coast of the United
States should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as
additional watches or warnings may be required later today.
Interests in southeastern New England should also monitor the
progress of the hurricane.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 31.3 North, longitude 79.6 West. Dorian is moving
toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the north-
northeast is anticipated on Thursday, with a turn toward the
northeast on Thursday night. A northeastward motion at a faster
forward speed is forecast on Friday. On the forecast track, the
center of Dorian will continue to approach the coast of South
Carolina tonight, move near or over the coast of South Carolina on
Thursday, and then move near or over the coast of North Carolina
Thursday night and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are
expected during the next 12 hours, followed by slow weakening
Thursday through Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force plane was 955
mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are currently affecting portions of
the Georgia and southern South Carolina coasts, and should begin
along other portions of the South Carolina coast during the next
several hours.

Tropical storm conditions will begin elsewhere within the Hurricane
Warning area in the Carolinas tonight, with hurricane conditions
beginning on Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area in the Mid-Atlantic states by Friday, with tropical
storm conditions possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area Friday
or Friday night.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Isle of Palms to Myrtle Beach SC...5 to 8 ft
Savannah River to Isle of Palms SC...4 to 7 ft
Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Lookout NC...4 to 7 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 6 ft
North of Mouth of St. Mary's River to Savannah River...3 to 5 ft
Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Coastal Carolinas...6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Coastal Georgia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches
Far southeast Virginia...3 to 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and
the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through
North Carolina during the next several days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes will be possible through Thursday
across the coastal Carolinas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-05 02:56

WTNT25 KNHC 050254
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 47
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
0300 UTC THU SEP 05 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA SOUTH OF
THE MOUTH OF ST. MARY'S RIVER HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF ST. MARY'S RIVER TO POQUOSON VA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS
* HAMPTON ROADS

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SAVANNAH RIVER TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF ST. MARY'S RIVER TO SAVANNAH RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF ST. MARY'S RIVER TO SAVANNAH RIVER
* NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT SOUTHWARD

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE VA TO FENWICK ISLAND DE
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO DRUM POINT
* TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN...AS
ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.
INTERESTS IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE HURRICANE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 79.6W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
EYE DIAMETER 40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT.......170NE 150SE 90SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 150SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 79.6W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 79.7W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 32.2N 79.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 33.6N 78.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 35.2N 75.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 110SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 37.5N 72.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 45.0N 62.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...220NE 220SE 180SW 170NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 53.5N 52.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 58.0N 38.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.3N 79.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 05/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

>

2019-09-05 01:56

WTNT65 KNHC 050154
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1000 PM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019

...RAIN BANDS SPREADING ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA
COASTS WELL AHEAD OF DORIAN...

A buoy at Gray's Reef, Georgia, recently measured sustained winds of
47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust to 65 mph (105 km/h).
An observation Hilton Head, South Carolina, recently measured
sustained winds of 36 mph (58 km/h) and a gust to 47 mph (76 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 79.7W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2019-09-05 01:00

WTNT65 KNHC 050058
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
900 PM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE WITH SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING
IS EXPECTED ALONG A LARGE PORTION OF THE U.S. SOUTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC COASTS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...

A Weatherflow site at Calibogue Sound, Georgia, recently measured
sustained winds of 37 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to 49 mph (79 km/h).
An observation at Sapelo Island, Georgia, recently measured
sustained winds of 35 mph (56 km/h) and a gust to 48 mph (77 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 900 PM EDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 79.7W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-09-04 23:51

WTNT35 KNHC 042349
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 46A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019

...LIFE THREATHENING STORM SURGE WITH SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING
IS EXPECTED ALONG A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC
COASTS OF THE UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 79.8W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.31 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County line FL to Poquoson VA
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
* Hampton Roads

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* North of Savannah River to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Savannah River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County FL line to Savannah River
* North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague VA
* Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Chincoteague VA to Fenwick Island DE
* Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Drum Point
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic coast of the United
States should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as
additional watches or warnings may be required later today.
Interests in southeastern New England should also monitor the
progress of the hurricane.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the large eye of Hurricane Dorian was
located near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 79.8 West. Dorian is
moving northward near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn to the north-
northeast is anticipated on Thursday, with a turn toward the
northeast on Thursday night. A northeastward motion at a faster
forward speed is forecast on Friday. On the forecast track, the
center of Dorian will continue to approach the coast of South
Carolina tonight, move near or over the coast of South Carolina on
Thursday, and then move near or over the coast of North Carolina
Thursday night and Friday.

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds remain near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some fluctuations in strength are possible tonight, followed by slow
weakening Thursday through Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter is
959 mb (28.31 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are currently affecting portions of
the Georgia and southern South Carolina coasts, and should begin
along other portions of the South Carolina coast during the next
several hours.

Tropical storm conditions will begin elsewhere within the Hurricane
Warning area in the Carolinas later today, with hurricane conditions
beginning by late tonight and Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area in the Mid-Atlantic states by Friday, with tropical
storm conditions possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area Friday
or Friday night.

Tropical storm conditions along the northeastern Florida coast
should subside tonight.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Isle of Palms to Myrtle Beach SC...5 to 8 ft
Savannah River to Isle of Palms SC...4 to 7 ft
Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Lookout NC...4 to 7 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 6 ft
North of Mouth of St. Mary's River to Savannah River...3 to 5 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line FL to the Mouth of St. Mary's River...2
to 4 ft
Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Coastal Carolinas...6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Far southeast Virginia...3 to 6 inches.
Atlantic Coast from Daytona Beach, Florida to the Georgia-South
Carolina border...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and
the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through
North Carolina during the next several days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible along the immediate coast
of Georgia this afternoon. Isolated tornadoes are possible from this
evening through Thursday across the coastal Carolinas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-04 22:59

WTNT65 KNHC 042257
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
700 PM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019

...DORIAN LASHING THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...

A Weatherflow site at Folly Beach Pier, just south of Charleston,
SC, recently measured sustained winds of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust
to 49 mph (79 km/h).

An observation at Sapelo Island, Georgia, recently measured
sustained winds of 35 mph (56 km/h) and a gust to 48 mph (77 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 79.8W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-09-04 21:55

WTNT65 KNHC 042153
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
600 PM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019

...EYE OF HURRICANE DORIAN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST...

A Weatherflow site at Folly Beach Pier, just south of Charleston,
SC, recently measured sustained winds of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust
to 56 mph (90 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 79.8W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-09-04 20:59

WTNT45 KNHC 042057
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 PM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019

Dorian has become a little better organized during the past several
hours, with the eye becoming somewhat more distinct and the cold
cloud tops in the eyewall becoming more symmetric. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has twice reported 110-kt
flight-level winds in the eastern eyewall, and the central pressure
has fallen to 961 mb. Based on these data and that of eyewall
dropsondes, the initial intensity is increased to 95 kt. The
aircraft data show that hurricane-force winds are 50-60 n mi
offshore of northeastern coast of Florida, while surface
observations show that tropical-storm conditions are affecting
portions of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina.

The initial motion is now 345/8. Dorian is moving around the
western end of the subtropical ridge, and it should recurve
northward and northeastward into the mid-latitude westerlies during
the next 12-36 h. This motion should bring the center of Dorian
near the coast of South Carolina in about 24 h and near or over the
coast of North Carolina during the 36-48 h period. After that time,
the cyclone is forecast to accelerate northeastward into the
Atlantic toward the Canadian Maritimes, with a quick northeastward
motion continuing through 120 h. The track guidance remains very
tightly clustered, and the new forecast track is little changed from
the previous forecast. It should be noted that the track is close
to and almost parallel to the coast of the southeastern United
State, and any deviation to the left of the track could bring the
center onshore anywhere in the Carolinas.

Dorian is expected to remain in an environment of light to moderate
vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures during the
next 36 h or so. None of the guidance shows significant
strengthening during this time, and the official forecast is
similar to, but slightly stronger than, the previous forecast.
However, based on current trends it is possible that Dorian could
briefly regain major hurricane strength during the next 12-24 h. The
hurricane is expected to maintain Category 2 intensity as it passes
near the southeastern United States coast during the 24-48 h period,
followed by a weakening trend due to increasing shear and dry air
entrainment. Extratropical transition is now expected to begin
between 48-72 h and be complete just after 72 h, with Dorian
forecast to become a hurricane-force extratropical low as it moves
towards Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.

Since the NHC track prediction continues to take Dorian dangerously
close to the southeast U.S. coast, all interests from northeast
Florida to the Carolinas should remain vigilant to the possibility
of experiencing destructive winds, flooding rains, and life-
threatening storm surges from this hurricane.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected
along portions of the Florida east coast, the coasts of Georgia,
South Carolina, and North Carolina, and portions of southeast
Virginia and the southern Chesapeake Bay, regardless of the exact
track of Dorian's center. Water levels could rise well in advance
of the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should
follow advice given by local emergency officials.

2. Flash flooding will become increasingly likely across coastal
Georgia into the eastern Carolinas tonight into Friday. There is a
high risk of flash flooding over coastal sections of the Carolinas,
where significant, life-threatening, flash flooding is expected.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 30.6N 79.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 31.4N 79.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 32.7N 79.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 34.0N 77.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 35.9N 74.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 42.1N 65.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 50.5N 56.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/1800Z 56.5N 42.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-04 20:58

WTNT35 KNHC 042056
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 PM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTS THAT DORIAN HAS STRENGTHENED A
LITTLE...
...EYE NOW EAST OF THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 79.8W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended northward to Poquoson,
Virginia, including Hampton Roads.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from the North
Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague, Virginia, and for the
Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from north of Chincoteague,
Virginia, to Fenwick Island, Delaware, for the Chesapeake Bay from
Smith Point to Drum Point, and for the Tidal Potomac River south of
Cobb Island.

The Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning have been
discontinued south of the Flagler/Volusia County line.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County line FL to Poquoson VA
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
* Hampton Roads

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* North of Savannah River to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Savannah River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County FL line to Savannah River
* North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague VA
* Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Chincoteague VA to Fenwick Island DE
* Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Drum Point
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic coast of the United
States should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as
additional watches or warnings may be required later today.
Interests in southeastern New England should also monitor the
progress of the hurricane.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 79.8 West. Dorian is moving
toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn to the
north is expected tonight, followed by a turn to the north-
northeast on Thursday and a turn toward the northeast on Thursday
night. A northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is forecast
on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will
approach the coast of South Carolina tonight, move near or over the
coast of South Carolina on Thursday, and move near or over the coast
of North Carolina Thursday night and Friday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph
(175 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength are
possible tonight, followed by slow weakening Thursday through
Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km). NOAA buoy 41008 near the Georgia coast recently
reported sustained winds of 54 mph (86 km/h) and a wind gust of 60
mph (97 km/h).

The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter is
961 mb (28.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are currently affecting portions of
the Georgia and southern South Carolina coasts, and should begin
along other portions of the South Carolina coast during the next
several hours.

Tropical storm conditions will begin elsewhere within the Hurricane
Warning area in the Carolinas later today, with hurricane conditions
beginning by late tonight and Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area in the Mid-Atlantic states by Friday, with tropical
storm conditions possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area Friday
or Friday night.

Tropical storm conditions along the northeastern Florida coast
should subside tonight.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Isle of Palms to Myrtle Beach SC...5 to 8 ft
Savannah River to Isle of Palms SC...4 to 7 ft
Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Lookout NC...4 to 7 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 6 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line FL to Savannah River...3 to 5 ft
Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Coastal Carolinas...6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches.

Far southeast Virginia...3 to 6 inches.

Atlantic Coast from Daytona Beach, Florida to the Georgia-South
Carolina border...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and
the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through
North Carolina during the next several days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible along the immediate coast
of Georgia this afternoon. Isolated tornadoes are possible from this
evening through Thursday across the coastal Carolinas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-04 20:57

WTNT25 KNHC 042055
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 46
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
2100 UTC WED SEP 04 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO
POQUOSON VIRGINIA...INCLUDING HAMPTON ROADS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA...AND FOR THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT SOUTHWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF
CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA TO FENWICK ISLAND DELAWARE...FOR THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO DRUM POINT...AND FOR THE TIDAL
POTOMAC RIVER SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND.

THE STORM SURGE WARNING AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE FL TO POQUOSON VA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS
* HAMPTON ROADS

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SAVANNAH RIVER TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PONTE VEDRA BEACH FL TO SAVANNAH RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY FL LINE TO SAVANNAH RIVER
* NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT SOUTHWARD

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE VA TO FENWICK ISLAND DE
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO DRUM POINT
* TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.
THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE
AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN...AS
ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.
INTERESTS IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE HURRICANE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 79.8W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB
EYE DIAMETER 50 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT.......100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT.......170NE 160SE 100SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 150SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 79.8W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 79.7W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 31.4N 79.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 32.7N 79.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 34.0N 77.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 110SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 35.9N 74.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 42.1N 65.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...220NE 220SE 180SW 170NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 50.5N 56.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 56.5N 42.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N 79.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 05/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2019-09-04 19:58

WTNT65 KNHC 041956
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
400 PM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019

...RAINBANDS OF DORIAN CONTINUE TO BRING HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...

A Weatherflow site at Folly Beach Pier, just south of Charleston,
SC, recently measured sustained winds of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust
to 51 mph (82 km/h).

The most recent minimum pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter plane was 962 mb (28.41 inches).

SUMMARY OF 400 PM EDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.4N 79.8W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-04 18:57

WTNT65 KNHC 041855
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
300 PM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019

...RAINBANDS OF DORIAN CONTINUE TO BRING HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST US COAST...

NOAA buoy 41008, located off the Georgia coast, recently measured
sustained winds of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust to 58 mph (93 km/h).

A National Ocean Service site at Sapelo Island, Georgia, recently
measured a wind gust of 51 mph (82 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 79.8W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM NE OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-04 18:01

WTNT35 KNHC 041758 CCA
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 45A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019

...EYE OF DORIAN NOW EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA...

CORRECTED DIRECTION FROM JACKSONVILLE

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 79.8W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* North of Port Canaveral FL to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North Carolina/Virginia border to Poquoson VA, including Hampton
Roads

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* North of Savannah River to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Savannah River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Volusia/Brevard County FL line to Savannah River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague VA
* Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic coast of the United
States should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as
additional watches or warnings may be required later today.
Interests in southeastern New England should also monitor the
progress of the hurricane.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 30.2 North, longitude 79.8 West. Dorian is moving
toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue this afternoon. A turn toward the north is
expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the northeast on
Thursday. On this track, the core of Hurricane Dorian will move
parallel to the Florida east coast and the Georgia coast through
tonight. The center of Dorian is forecast to move near or over the
coast of South Carolina and North Carolina Thursday through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow weakening is expected during the next few days.
However, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during
this time.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km). A Weatherflow station at Huguenot Park, Florida,
recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a wind
gust of 54 mph (87 km/h). NOAA buoy 41008, located off the Georgia
coast, recently reported sustained winds of 49 mph (79 km/h) and a
wind gust of 56 mph (90 km/h).

The minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 964 mb (28.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are currently affecting portions of
the northeastern coast of Florida, and should begin along the
Georgia coast during the next several hours.

Tropical storm conditions will begin within the Hurricane Warning
area in the Carolinas later today, with hurricane conditions by
late tonight and Thursday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Isle of Palms to Myrtle Beach SC...5 to 8 ft
Savannah River to Isle of Palms SC...4 to 7 ft
Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Lookout NC...4 to 7 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 6 ft
Volusia/Brevard County Line FL to Savannah River...3 to 5 ft
North of Port Canaveral FL to Volusia/Brevard County Line FL...2 to
4 ft
Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.

Atlantic Coast from Daytona Beach, Florida to the Georgia-South
Carolina border...3 to 6 inches, with isolated 9 inches near the
Georgia coast.

Southeast Virginia...3 to 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and
the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through
North Carolina during the next several days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible along the immediate coast
of Georgia this afternoon. Isolated tornadoes are possible from this
evening through Thursday across the coastal Carolinas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-04 17:57

WTNT35 KNHC 041755
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 45A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019

...EYE OF DORIAN NOW EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 79.8W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ENE OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* North of Port Canaveral FL to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North Carolina/Virginia border to Poquoson VA, including Hampton
Roads

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* North of Savannah River to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Savannah River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Volusia/Brevard County FL line to Savannah River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague VA
* Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic coast of the United
States should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as
additional watches or warnings may be required later today.
Interests in southeastern New England should also monitor the
progress of the hurricane.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 30.2 North, longitude 79.8 West. Dorian is moving
toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue this afternoon. A turn toward the north is
expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the northeast on
Thursday. On this track, the core of Hurricane Dorian will move
parallel to the Florida east coast and the Georgia coast through
tonight. The center of Dorian is forecast to move near or over the
coast of South Carolina and North Carolina Thursday through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow weakening is expected during the next few days.
However, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during
this time.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km). A Weatherflow station at Huguenot Park, Florida,
recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a wind
gust of 54 mph (87 km/h). NOAA buoy 41008, located off the Georgia
coast, recently reported sustained winds of 49 mph (79 km/h) and a
wind gust of 56 mph (90 km/h).

The minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 964 mb (28.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are currently affecting portions of
the northeastern coast of Florida, and should begin along the
Georgia coast during the next several hours.

Tropical storm conditions will begin within the Hurricane Warning
area in the Carolinas later today, with hurricane conditions by
late tonight and Thursday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Isle of Palms to Myrtle Beach SC...5 to 8 ft
Savannah River to Isle of Palms SC...4 to 7 ft
Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Lookout NC...4 to 7 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 6 ft
Volusia/Brevard County Line FL to Savannah River...3 to 5 ft
North of Port Canaveral FL to Volusia/Brevard County Line FL...2 to
4 ft
Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.

Atlantic Coast from Daytona Beach, Florida to the Georgia-South
Carolina border...3 to 6 inches, with isolated 9 inches near the
Georgia coast.

Southeast Virginia...3 to 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and
the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through
North Carolina during the next several days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible along the immediate coast
of Georgia this afternoon. Isolated tornadoes are possible from this
evening through Thursday across the coastal Carolinas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-04 17:00

WTNT65 KNHC 041658
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
100 PM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019

...DORIAN MOVING PARALLEL TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA...
...RAINBANDS BRINGING HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST US
COAST...

A WeatherFlow station in Jacksonville recently reported sustained
winds of 43 mph (69 km/h) with a gust to 55 mph (88 km/h).

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported a
minimum central pressure of 963 mb (28.44 inches).

SUMMARY OF 100 PM EDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 79.7W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM NE OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-04 15:57

WTNT65 KNHC 041555
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1200 PM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019

...DORIAN MOVING PARALLEL TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA...
...RAINBANDS BRINGING HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST US
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 79.7W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ENE OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-04 15:00

WTNT45 KNHC 041458
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019

Satellite imagery indicates that the cloud tops in the eyewall of
Dorian have cooled significantly during the past few hours, with the
eye becoming better defined in NOAA Doppler radar data. However,
just-received reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft show that the hurricane has changed little in intensity,
with maximum winds remaining near 90 kt and the central pressure
near 964 mb. The aircraft data show that hurricane-force winds are
roughly 50 n mi offshore of the northeastern Florida peninsula,
while surface observations show that tropical-storm conditions are
affecting portions of the coast of northeastern Florida.

The initial motion is now 335/8. Dorian is moving around the
western end of the subtropical ridge, and it should recurve
northward and northeastward into the mid-latitude westerlies during
the next 24-48 h. This motion should bring the center of Dorian
near or over the coast of North Carolina during the 36-48 h period.
After that time, the cyclone is forecast to accelerate northeastward
into the Atlantic toward the Canadian Maritimes, with a quick
northeastward motion continuing for the remainder of the cyclone's
life. The track guidance is very tightly clustered, and the new
forecast track, which has only minor changes from the previous
forecast, lies in the center of the guidance envelope near the
consensus models. It should be noted that the track is close to and
almost parallel to the coast of the southeastern United State, and
any deviation to the left of the track could bring the center
onshore anywhere in the Carolinas.

Dorian is expected to remain in an environment of light to moderate
vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures during the
next 48 h. As a result, the hurricane is expected to maintain
Category 2 intensity as it passes near the southeastern United
States coast. After 48 h, increasing shear and dry air entrainment
should cause a weakening trend. Extratropical transition should
begin near the 72 h time, and the cyclone is forecast to become a
hurricane-force extratropical low by 96 h near or over Nova Scotia
and Newfoundland.

Since the NHC track prediction continues to take Dorian dangerously
close to the southeast U.S. coast, all interests from northeast
Florida to the Carolinas should remain vigilant to the possibility
of experiencing destructive winds, flooding rains, and life-
threatening storm surges from this hurricane.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected
along portions of the Florida east coast and the coasts of Georgia,
South Carolina, North Carolina, regardless of the exact track of
Dorian's center. Water levels could rise well in advance of the
arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow
advice given by local emergency officials.

2. The risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rain impacts along
portions of the Virginia coast and the southern Chesapeake Bay
continues to increase. Residents in these areas should continue to
monitor the progress of Dorian.

3. Flash flooding will become increasingly likely across coastal
Georgia into the eastern Carolinas tonight into Friday. There is a
high risk of flash flooding over coastal sections of the Carolinas,
where significant, life-threatening, flash flooding is expected.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 29.8N 79.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 30.8N 80.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 31.9N 79.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 33.1N 78.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 34.8N 76.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 39.9N 68.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 47.5N 59.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/1200Z 55.0N 46.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-04 14:59

WTNT35 KNHC 041457
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019

...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST...
...DORIAN STILL MOVING PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 79.7W
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM ENE OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended northward to the North
Carolina/Virginia border, including Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds
and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers.

The Hurricane Warning has been extended northward to the North
Carolina/Virginia border, including Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds.

The Storm Surge Warning has been been discontinued from Port
Canaveral, Florida southward.

The Hurricane Warning for the northeastern coast of Florida from the
Volusia/Brevard County line to Ponte Vedra Beach has been changed
to a Tropical Storm Warning.

The Tropical Storm Warning for the east coast of Florida has been
discontinued south of the Volusia/Brevard County line.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* North of Port Canaveral FL to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North Carolina/Virginia border to Poquoson VA, including Hampton
Roads

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* North of Savannah River to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Savannah River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Volusia/Brevard County FL line to Savannah River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague VA
* Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic coast of the United
States should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as
additional watches or warnings may be required later today.
Interests in southeastern New England should also monitor the
progress of the hurricane.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was
located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 79.7 West. Dorian is
moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north is
expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the northeast on
Thursday. On this track, the core of Hurricane Dorian will move
parallel to the Florida east coast and the Georgia coast through
tonight. The center of Dorian is forecast to move near or over the
coast of South Carolina and North Carolina Thursday through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. A slow weakening is expected during the next few days.
However, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during
this time.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to
175 miles (280 km). NOAA buoy 41008, located off the Georgia
coast, recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a
wind gust of 47 mph (76 km/h).

The minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 964 mb (28.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are currently affecting portions of
the northeastern coast of Florida, and should begin along the
Georgia coast later this morning.

Tropical storm conditions will begin within the Hurricane Warning
area in the Carolinas later today, with hurricane conditions by
late tonight and Thursday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Isle of Palms to Myrtle Beach SC...5 to 8 ft
Savannah River to Isle of Palms SC...4 to 7 ft
Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Lookout NC...4 to 7 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 6 ft
Volusia/Brevard County Line FL to Savannah River...3 to 5 ft
North of Port Canaveral FL to Volusia/Brevard County Line FL...2 to
4 ft
Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.

Atlantic Coast from Daytona Beach, Florida to the Georgia-South
Carolina border...3 to 6 inches, with isolated 9 inches near the
Georgia coast.

Southeast Virginia...3 to 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and
the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through
North Carolina during the next several days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible along the immediate coast
of Georgia this afternoon. Isolated tornadoes are possible from this
evening through Thursday across the coastal Carolinas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-04 14:58

WTNT25 KNHC 041456
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
1500 UTC WED SEP 04 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS
AND THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS.

THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS.

THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM PORT
CANAVERAL...FLORIDA SOUTHWARD.

THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA FROM THE
VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH HAS BEEN CHANGED
TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PORT CANAVERAL FL TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO POQUOSON VA...INCLUDING HAMPTON
ROADS

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SAVANNAH RIVER TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PONTE VEDRA BEACH FL TO SAVANNAH RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY FL LINE TO SAVANNAH RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT SOUTHWARD

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION
OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS
A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS
SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM
RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN...AS
ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.
INTERESTS IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE HURRICANE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 79.7W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB
EYE DIAMETER 55 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT.......100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT.......150NE 130SE 100SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 210SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 79.7W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 79.6W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 30.8N 80.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 31.9N 79.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 33.1N 78.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 34.8N 76.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 39.9N 68.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...220NE 200SE 180SW 170NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 47.5N 59.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 55.0N 46.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N 79.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 04/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2019-09-04 13:57

WTNT65 KNHC 041355
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1000 AM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019

...DORIAN MOVING PARALLEL TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 79.6W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ENE OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM ESE OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-04 12:59

WTNT65 KNHC 041257
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
900 AM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019

...DORIAN CONTINUES MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD PARALLEL TO THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM EDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 79.6W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ENE OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM ESE OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-04 11:56

WTNT35 KNHC 041154
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 44A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019

...CENTER OF DORIAN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD PARALLEL TO THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 79.6W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ENE OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM ESE OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet FL to Surf City NC

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Volusia/Brevard County FL line to Ponte Vedra Beach FL
* North of Savannah River to Surf City NC

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Savannah River
* North of Surf City NC to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet FL to the Volusia/Brevard County FL line
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Savannah River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague VA
* Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic coast of the United
States should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as
additional watches or warnings may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 29.5 North, longitude 79.6 West. Dorian is moving
toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a northwest or
north-northwest motion is expected through this morning. A turn
toward the north is forecast by this evening, followed by a turn
toward the north-northeast on Thursday morning. On this track, the
core of Hurricane Dorian will move dangerously close to the Florida
east coast and the Georgia coast through tonight. The center of
Dorian is forecast to move near or over the coast of South Carolina
and North Carolina Thursday through Friday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is expected during the next couple of days.
However, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during
the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to
175 miles (280 km). The NOAA automated station at St. Augustine
Beach, Florida, recently reported sustained winds of 46 mph (74
km/h) and a wind gust of 59 mph (94 km/h).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Unit
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 964 mb (28.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are currently affecting portions of
the northeastern coast of Florida, and should begin along the
Georgia coast later this morning.

Hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the Hurricane
Warning area in Florida today. Tropical storm conditions will begin
within the Hurricane Warning area in the Carolinas later today, with
hurricane conditions by tonight.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Isle of Palms to Myrtle Beach SC...5 to 8 ft
Savannah River to Isle of Palms SC...4 to 7 ft
Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Lookout NC...4 to 7 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 6 ft
Volusia/Brevard County Line FL to Savannah River...3 to 5 ft
Sebastian Inlet FL to Volusia/Brevard County Line FL...2 to 4 ft
Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Atlantic Coast from Daytona Beach, Florida to the Georgia-South
Carolina border...3 to 6 inches, with isolated 9 inches near the
Georgia coast.
Southeast Virginia...3 to 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and
the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through
North Carolina during the next several days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible near the immediate east
coast of Florida through tonight. This risk will shift to along the
immediate Georgia coast and the coastal Carolinas today into
Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-04 10:58

WTNT65 KNHC 041056
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
700 AM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019

...DORIAN CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM EDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 79.5W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM E OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-04 09:53

WTNT65 KNHC 040951
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
600 AM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019

...DORIAN AMBLING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM EDT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.2N 79.5W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-04 08:57

WTNT45 KNHC 040855
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019

NOAA Doppler radar data and reports from an Air Force Reserve Unit
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Dorian's eye has become
broad and less well-defined over the past several hours. The
hurricane is still producing some healthy bands of deep convection
that are causing winds of at least tropical storm force along
portions of the northeast coast of Florida. Although the central
pressure had been rising, recent observations from the Hurricane
Hunters show that it has leveled off near 963 mb. The current
intensity is set at 90 kt, which may be generous considering the
flight-level wind speeds reported by the aircraft. Dorian will be
traversing warm waters for the next couple of days, with some
increase in vertical shear after 24 hours. The official intensity
forecast maintains the current intensity for a day or so and then
shows a very slow weakening thereafter. This is close to the latest
statistical-dynamical guidance. The system is expected to maintain
close to category 2 strength until it passes near or over the North
Carolina Outer Banks.

Dorian is moving slowly north-northwestward to northwestward, or
330/7 kt. There is basically no change to the track forecast
reasoning. Over the next day or so, the hurricane is forecast to
gradually turn toward the north as it moves through a break in the
subtropical ridge. Thereafter, Dorian should accelerate
north-northeastward to northeastward on the southern side of a
broad mid-latitude trough. The official forecast track remains
close to the corrected multi-model consensus.

Since the NHC track prediction continues to take Dorian dangerously
close to the southeast U.S. coast, all interests from northeast
Florida to the Carolinas should remain vigilant to the possibility
of experiencing destructive winds, flooding rains, and
life-threatening storm surges from this hurricane.


Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected
along portions of the Florida east coast and the coasts of Georgia,
South Carolina, and North Carolina, regardless of the exact track of
Dorian's center. Water levels could rise well in advance of the
arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow
advice given by local emergency officials.

2. The risk of wind and rain impacts along portions of the Virginia
coast and the southern Chesapeake Bay are increasing. Residents in
these areas should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian.

3. The flash flood threat will spread up the southeast U.S. coast
today and Thursday, then across the coastal Mid-Atlantic region
on Friday. There is a high risk of flash flooding on Thursday
across coastal sections from northeast South Carolina into southern
North Carolina.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 29.2N 79.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 30.1N 79.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 31.2N 80.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 32.2N 79.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 33.7N 77.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 38.0N 70.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 45.0N 61.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/0600Z 53.5N 50.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2019-09-04 08:56

WTNT35 KNHC 040854
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.2N 79.5W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has discontinued all Tropical Storm
Warnings for the Bahamas.

The Tropical Storm Warning south of Sebastian Inlet, FL has been
discontinued.

The Hurricane Warning from Sebastian Inlet FL to the Volusia/Brevard
County FL line is changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet FL to Surf City NC

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Volusia/Brevard County FL line to Ponte Vedra Beach FL
* North of Savannah River to Surf City NC

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Savannah River
* North of Surf City NC to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet FL to the Volusia/Brevard County FL line
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Savannah River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague VA
* Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic coast of the United
States should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as
additional watches or warnings may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 79.5 West. Dorian is moving
toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a northwest or
north-northwest motion is expected through this morning. A turn
toward the north is forecast by this evening, followed by a turn
toward the north-northeast on Thursday morning. On this track, the
core of Hurricane Dorian will move dangerously close to the Florida
east coast and the Georgia coast through tonight. The center of
Dorian is forecast to move near or over the coast of South Carolina
and North Carolina Thursday through Friday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is expected during the next couple of days,
and Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the
next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Unit
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 963 mb (28.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are currently affecting portions of
the northeastern coast of Florida, and should begin along the
Georgia coast later this morning.

Hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the Hurricane
Warning area in Florida today. Tropical storm conditions will begin
within the Hurricane Warning area in the Carolinas later today, with
hurricane conditions by tonight.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Isle of Palms to Myrtle Beach SC...5 to 8 ft
Savannah River to Isle of Palms SC...4 to 7 ft
Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Lookout NC...4 to 7 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 6 ft
Volusia/Brevard County Line FL to Savannah River...3 to 5 ft
Sebastian Inlet FL to Volusia/Brevard County Line FL...2 to 4 ft
Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Atlantic Coast from Daytona Beach, Florida to the Georgia-South
Carolina border...3 to 6 inches, with isolated 9 inches near the
Georgia coast.
Southeast Virginia...3 to 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and
the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through
North Carolina during the next several days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible near the immediate east
coast of Florida through tonight. This risk will shift to along the
immediate Georgia coast and the coastal Carolinas today into
Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2019-09-04 08:56

WTNT25 KNHC 040854
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
0900 UTC WED SEP 04 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS FOR THE BAHAMAS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET FL HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM SEBASTIAN INLET FL TO THE
VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY FL LINE IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SEBASTIAN INLET FL TO SURF CITY NC

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NC TO POQUOSON VA...INCLUDING HAMPTON ROADS
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY FL LINE TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH FL
* NORTH OF SAVANNAH RIVER TO SURF CITY NC

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PONTE VEDRA BEACH FL TO SAVANNAH RIVER
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NC TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SEBASTIAN INLET...FL TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY FL LINE
* NORTH OF PONTE VEDRA BEACH FL TO SAVANNAH RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT SOUTHWARD

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN...AS
ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 79.5W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT.......100NE 70SE 50SW 90NW.
34 KT.......150NE 130SE 100SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 79.5W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 79.2W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 30.1N 79.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 31.2N 80.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 32.2N 79.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 110SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 33.7N 77.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 38.0N 70.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...220NE 200SE 180SW 170NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 45.0N 61.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 53.5N 50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.2N 79.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 04/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2019-09-04 08:12

WTNT65 KNHC 040757
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
400 AM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019

...SQUALLS CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EDT...0800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 79.4W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM E OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-04 07:00

WTNT65 KNHC 040657
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
300 AM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019

...RAINBANDS FROM DORIAN MOVING ONSHORE THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA...

A sustained wind of 72 mph (115 km/h) and a gust of 89 mph (144
km/h) was reported within the past hour at NOAA buoy 41010, located
about 140 miles (220 km) east of Cape Canaveral, Florida.

A sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust of 69 mph (111 km/h)
was recently reported at New Smyrna Beach, Florida.


SUMMARY OF 300 AM EDT...0700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 79.3W
ABOUT 105 MI...175 KM E OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-04 06:00

WTNT35 KNHC 040558
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 43A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
200 AM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 79.2W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued south of Sebastian
Inlet FL.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet FL to Surf City NC

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet FL to Ponte Vedra Beach FL
* North of Savannah River to Surf City NC

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Savannah River
* North of Surf City NC to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Savannah River
* Jupiter Inlet FL to Sebastian Inlet FL

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague VA
* Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic coast of the United
States should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as
additional watches or warnings may be required later tonight and
Wednesday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 79.2 West. Dorian is moving
toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a slightly
faster motion toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected
through this morning. A turn toward the north is forecast by this
evening, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Thursday
morning. On this track, the core of Hurricane Dorian will move
dangerously close to the Florida east coast and the Georgia coast
through tonight. The center of Dorian is forecast to move near or
over the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina Thursday through
Friday morning.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is expected during the next couple of days,
and Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the
next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km). Saint Augustine Beach Pier, Florida, recently
reported a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) with a gust to 52 mph
(84 km/h).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Unit
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 964 mb (28.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue along the Treasure
Coast of Florida for a few more hours. Tropical storm conditions
are beginning along the northeastern coast of Florida and should
begin along the Georgia coast later this morning.

Hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the Hurricane
Warning area in Florida by early today. Tropical storm
conditions will begin within the Hurricane Warning area in the
Carolinas later today, with hurricane conditions by tonight.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Savannah River to Cape Lookout NC...4 to 7 ft
Volusia/Brevard County Line FL to Savannah River...3 to 5 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...3 to 5 ft
Sebastian Inlet FL to Volusia/Brevard County Line FL...2 to 4 ft
Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Northwestern Bahamas...Additional 1 to 4 inches, isolated storm
totals over 30 inches.
Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Atlantic Coast from Sebastian, Florida to the Georgia, South
Carolina border...3 to 6 inches.
Far southeast Virginia...3 to 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and
the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through
North Carolina during the next several days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible near the immediate east
coast of Florida during the next several hours. This risk will
shift to along the immediate coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas
later today into Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2019-09-04 04:58

WTNT65 KNHC 040456
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
100 AM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019

...DORIAN'S EYE PASSING TO THE EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA...

A sustained wind of 65 mph (104 km/h) and a gust of 74 mph (119
km/h) was reported within the past hour at NOAA buoy 41009, located
about 140 miles (220 km) east of Cape Canaveral, Florida.


SUMMARY OF 100 AM EDT...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 79.1W
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-04 04:01

WTNT65 KNHC 040359
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1200 AM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019

...DORIAN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...

A sustained wind of 56 mph (91 km/h) and a gust of 76 mph (122
km/h) was recently reported at NOAA buoy 41009 located about 140
miles (220 km) east of Cape Canaveral, Florida.

A sustained wind of 49 mph (80 km/h) and a gust of 62 mph (100
km/h) was recently reported at Canaveral Point, Florida.


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM EDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 79.0W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM E OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-04 02:58

WTNT45 KNHC 040256
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

Dorian's structure has changed significantly during the past day or
so. Satellite and Doppler radar images show that the inner core has
become rather broad with a large ragged eye of at least 30 n mi
diameter. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate
that the maximum winds and minimum pressure have held steady since
this afternoon, and based on that information, the initial
intensity is held at 95 kt, but this could be a little generous.
The aircraft data and surface observations indicate that the wind
field is expanding in size with tropical-storm-force and
hurricane-force winds extending up to 150 n mi and 50 n mi from the
center, respectively. NOAA data buoy 41010 just northeast of the
center has been reporting sustained winds as high as 60 kt with
gusts to 78 kt, and seas over 30 ft.

Dorian is finally on the move again, and the latest initial motion
estimate is 340 degrees at 5 kt. Dorian is being steered by the
flow between a mid-level ridge to the east and broad troughing to
its north. A northwest to north motion with some increase in
forward speed is expected through Wednesday, taking the core of
Dorian just offshore and parallel to the east coast of Florida
during that time. Thereafter, a faster motion toward the northeast
is predicted as a series of shortwave troughs move across the
northeastern U.S. This should take the core of the hurricane
very near, or possibly over, the coasts of South and North Carolina
on Thursday and Friday. After it passes the Outer Banks, the
hurricane is forecast to accelerate northeastward in the stronger
mid-latitude flow toward the Canadian Maritimes this weekend.
The NHC track forecast is largely unchanged and near the middle of
the tightly packed guidance envelope.

The hurricane is in a favorable environment of low wind shear, high
moisture, and warm SSTs, and it is expected to stay in these
conditions until it nears the Carolina coast. Therefore, Dorian is
expected to remain about the same intensity during the next couple
of days. After that time, an increase in shear from the
mid-latitude trough and drier air should cause Dorian to slowly
weaken. The GFS and ECMWF models both show Dorian becoming an
extratropical system by 96 hours, and the official forecast follows
those solutions. As this system gains latitude, the wind field is
expected to expand even more. Therefore, even if Dorian does not
make landfall, hurricane-force winds are expected to reach portions
of the coast from central Florida to North Carolina.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected
along portions of the Florida east coast and the coasts of Georgia,
South Carolina, and North Carolina, regardless of the exact track of
Dorian's center. Water levels could rise well in advance of the
arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow
advice given by local emergency officials.

2. The risk of wind and rain impacts along portions of the Virginia
coast and the southern Chesapeake Bay are increasing. Residents in
these areas should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian.

3. The flash flood threat will increase overnight along the Florida
east coast, then spread up the southeast and mid Atlantic coast
beginning Wednesday. There is a moderate risk of flash flooding
from coastal Georgia through the eastern portions of South and North
Carolina Wednesday and Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 28.4N 79.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 29.4N 79.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 30.7N 79.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 31.9N 79.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 33.3N 78.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 37.1N 72.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 43.3N 62.7W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/0000Z 51.5N 52.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-09-04 02:58

WTNT35 KNHC 040255
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...DORIAN CONTINUES TO LASH THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 79.0W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM E OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Watch has been extended northward from Duck NC to
Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet FL to Surf City NC

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet FL to Ponte Vedra Beach FL
* North of Savannah River to Surf City NC

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Savannah River
* North of Surf City NC to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Savannah River
* Jupiter Inlet FL to Sebastian Inlet FL

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague VA
* Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic coast of the United
States should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as
additional watches or warnings may be required later tonight and
Wednesday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was
located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 79.0 West. Dorian is
moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and a
slightly faster motion toward the northwest or north-northwest is
expected through early Wednesday. A turn toward the north is
forecast by Wednesday evening, followed by a turn toward the
north-northeast on Thursday morning. On this track, the core of
Hurricane Dorian will move dangerously close to the Florida east
coast and the Georgia coast through Wednesday night. The
center of Dorian is forecast to move near or over the coast of South
Carolina and North Carolina Thursday through Friday morning.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next
couple of days, and Dorian is expected to remain a powerful
hurricane during the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb (28.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue on Grand Bahama
Island and along the Treasure Coast of Florida for a few
more hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within
the Tropical Storm Warning area in north Florida and Georgia by
early Wednesday.

Hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the Hurricane
Warning area in Florida by early Wednesday. Tropical storm
conditions will begin within the Hurricane Warning area in the
Carolinas Wednesday, with hurricane conditions by Wednesday night.

STORM SURGE: Water levels should very slowly subside on Grand
Bahamas Island and the Abaco Islands through tonight. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Savannah River to Cape Lookout NC...4 to 7 ft
Volusia/Brevard County Line FL to Savannah River...3 to 5 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...3 to 5 ft
Jupiter Inlet FL to Volusia/Brevard County Line FL...2 to 4 ft
Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Northwestern Bahamas...Additional 1 to 4 inches, isolated storm
totals over 30 inches.
Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Atlantic Coast from Sebastian, Florida to the Georgia, South
Carolina border...3 to 6 inches.
Far southeast Virginia...3 to 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and
the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through
North Carolina during the next several days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible near the immediate east
coast of Florida during the next several hours. This risk will
shift to along the immediate coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas on
Wednesday into Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-09-04 02:54

WTNT25 KNHC 040251
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
0300 UTC WED SEP 04 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD FROM
DUCK NC TO POQUOSON VA...INCLUDING HAMPTON ROADS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JUPITER INLET FL TO SURF CITY NC

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NC TO POQUOSON VA...INCLUDING HAMPTON ROADS
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SEBASTIAN INLET FL TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH FL
* NORTH OF SAVANNAH RIVER TO SURF CITY NC

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PONTE VEDRA BEACH FL TO SAVANNAH RIVER
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NC TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND BAHAMA AND THE ABACOS ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* NORTH OF PONTE VEDRA BEACH FL TO SAVANNAH RIVER
* JUPITER INLET FL TO SEBASTIAN INLET FL

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT SOUTHWARD

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A DEPICTION
OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS
A
LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS
SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM
RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN...AS
ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 79.0W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 70SE 50SW 90NW.
34 KT.......150NE 130SE 100SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 120SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 79.0W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 78.8W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 29.4N 79.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 30.7N 79.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 31.9N 79.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 110SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 33.3N 78.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 120SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 37.1N 72.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 43.3N 62.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 51.5N 52.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.4N 79.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 04/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2019-09-04 01:54

WTNT65 KNHC 040152
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1000 PM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...DORIAN CONTINUES TO LASH THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA...

The core of the hurricane is moving nearly parallel to, but offshore
of, the east coast of central Florida. A sustained wind of 74 mph
(119 km/h) and a gust of 90 mph (144 km/h) were recently reported
at NOAA Buoy 41010 located north of Dorian's eye. At New Smyrna
Beach, Florida, a sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a wind gust
of 47 mph (76 km/h) were recently reported.


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 78.9W
ABOUT 105 MI...175 KM E OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Cangialosi

>

2019-09-04 00:58

WTNT65 KNHC 040056
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
900 PM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...DORIAN CONTINUES TO LASH THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA...

The core of the hurricane is moving nearly parallel to, but offshore
of, the east coast of central Florida. A sustained wind of 70 mph
(111 km/h) and a gust of 85 mph (137 km/h) were recently reported
at NOAA Buoy 41010 located north of Dorian's eye. At Indian River,
Florida, a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a wind gust of 51
mph (81 km/h) were recently reported.


SUMMARY OF 900 PM EDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 78.9W
ABOUT 105 MI...175 KM E OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Cangialosi

>

2019-09-03 23:51

WTNT35 KNHC 032348
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 42A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...DORIAN LASHING THE CENTRAL FLORIDA EAST COAST...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 78.8W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM E OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet FL to Surf City NC

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City NC to Duck NC
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet FL to Ponte Vedra Beach FL
* North of Savannah River to Surf City NC

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Savannah River
* North of Surf City NC to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Savannah River
* Jupiter Inlet FL to Sebastian Inlet FL

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague VA
* Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic coast of the United
States should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as
additional watches or warnings may be required later tonight and
Wednesday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 28.1 North, longitude 78.8 West. Dorian is moving
toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and a slightly faster
motion toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected tonight.
A turn toward the north is forecast by Wednesday evening, followed
by a turn toward the north-northeast Thursday morning. On this
track, the core of Hurricane Dorian will move dangerously close to
the Florida east coast and the Georgia coast tonight through
Wednesday night. The center of Dorian is forecast to move near or
over the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina Thursday through
Friday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the
next few of days.

Dorian has become a larger hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-
force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). NOAA buoy
41010 just north of the center recently reported a sustained wind
of 67 mph (107 km/h) and a wind gust of 83 mph (133 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance data is 959 mb (28.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue on Grand Bahama
Island and along the Treasure Coast of Florida for a few
more hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within
the Tropical Storm Warning area in north Florida and Georgia late
tonight or early Wednesday.

Hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the Hurricane
Warning area in Florida overnight. Tropical storm conditions will
begin within the Hurricane Warning area in the Carolinas Wednesday,
with hurricane conditions by Wednesday night.

STORM SURGE: Water levels should very slowly subside on Grand
Bahamas Island and the Abaco Islands through tonight. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Savannah River to Cape Lookout NC...4 to 7 ft
Volusia/Brevard County Line FL to Savannah River...3 to 5 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...3 to 5 ft
Jupiter Inlet FL to Volusia/Brevard County Line FL...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Northwestern Bahamas...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm
totals over 30 inches.
Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula north of West Palm Beach
through Georgia and across southeast Virginia...3 to 6 inches

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and
the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through
North Carolina during the next several days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible near the immediate east
coast of Florida during the next several hours. This risk will
shift to along the immediate coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas on
Wednesday into Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Ramos

>

2019-09-03 22:56

WTNT65 KNHC 032253
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
700 PM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...DORIAN LASHING THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA...

The core of the hurricane is moving nearly parallel to, but offshore
of, the east coast of central Florida. A sustained wind of 43 mph
(69 km/h) and a wind gust of 57 mph (93 km/h) were recently reported
at a weather station at Sebastian Inlet. At Indian River, Florida,
a sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a wind gust of 55 mph
(89 km/h) were recently reported.


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 78.6W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM E OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Ramos

>

2019-09-03 21:56

WTNT65 KNHC 032153
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
600 PM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...DORIAN PULLING AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND LASHING
THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...

The eyewall of Dorian continues to move away from Grand Bahama
Island. However, dangerous winds and life-threatening storm surge
will continue over that island for a few more hours.

The core of the hurricane is moving nearly parallel to, but offshore
of, the east coast of Florida. A sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h)
and a wind gust of 53 mph (85 km/h) were recently reported at a
weather station at Sebastian Inlet.


SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 78.6W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM E OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Ramos

>

2019-09-03 20:51

WTNT45 KNHC 032049
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

Dorian has finally begun a more definitive northwestward motion this
afternoon. The satellite presentation of the hurricane is slightly
better in one-minute GOES 16 imagery with the large eye becoming a
little more apparent. The eye has also become better defined in NWS
Doppler radar from Melbourne, Florida. Reconnaissance aircraft data
continue to show an expansion of the tropical-storm and 50-kt wind
radii, and it is likely that the area of hurricane-force winds
will also increase somewhat during the next 24-36 hours. The initial
intensity remains 95 kt, and is a blend of the earlier
reconnaissance data and the latest satellite estimates. Dorian will
be moving northwestward over untapped waters east of the Florida
peninsula, which may lead to some structural re-organization, but
little overall change in intensity is expected during the next
couple of days. After that time, a gradual decrease in the peak
wind speed and an increase in storm size are predicted while the
vertical shear increases and the storm moves farther north. An
approaching mid-latitude trough and front will begin interacting
with the hurricane on Saturday and Dorian is forecast to become a
powerful extratropical low by 120 hours.

Dorian is now moving northwestward or 325/5 kt. The deep-layer
trough along the east coast of the United States is expected to
amplify on Wednesday, which should cause Dorian to move at a
slightly faster north-northwestward motion tonight and Wednesday.
After that time, Dorian should turn northward, and then north-
northeastward ahead of a shortwave trough moving into the eastern
United States. Once Dorian is offshore of eastern North Carolina,
it should accelerate northeastward within the mid-latitude
westerlies. The track envelope has edged closer to the coasts of
South Carolina and North Carolina and the NHC track has been
adjusted in that direction. A track that close to the coast, even
if landfall does not occur, is likely to bring dangerous winds,
life-threatening storm surge, and flooding rains across the eastern
portions of the Carolinas.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected
along portions of the Florida east coast and the coasts of Georgia,
South Carolina, and North Carolina, regardless of the exact track of
Dorian's center. Water levels could rise well in advance of the
arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow
advice given by local emergency officials.

2. The risk of wind and rain impacts along portions of the Virginia
coast and the southern Chesapeake Bay are increasing. Residents in
these areas should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian.

3. The flash flood threat will increase tonight along the Florida
east coast and then spread up the southeast and mid-Atlantic
coast during the middle and latter part of the week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 27.7N 78.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 28.7N 79.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 30.0N 80.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 31.4N 80.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 32.6N 79.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 36.1N 74.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 42.0N 65.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 50.0N 55.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-03 20:51

WTNT35 KNHC 032049
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...WINDS INCREASING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...
...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 78.7W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended northward to Surf City,
North Carolina.

The Storm Surge Watch has been extended northward to Duck, North
Carolina, including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds and the Neuse
and Pamlico Rivers.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued from Savannah River to Edisto
Beach, South Carolina, and from South Santee River, South Carolina,
to Surf City, North Carolina.

The Hurricane Watch has been extended north of Duck, North Carolina
to the North Carolina/Virginia border.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the
North Carolina/Virginia border northward to Chincoteague,
Virginia, and for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward.

The Hurricane Warning has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning
from Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet, Florida.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Jupiter
Inlet.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet FL to Surf City NC

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City NC to Duck NC
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet FL to Ponte Vedra Beach FL
* North of Savannah River to Surf City NC

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Savannah River
* North of Surf City NC to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Savannah River
* Jupiter Inlet FL to Sebastian Inlet FL

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague VA
* Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic coast of the United
States should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as
additional watches or warnings may be required tonight and
Wednesday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 78.7 West. Dorian is moving
toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and a slightly faster
motion toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected tonight.
A turn toward the north is forecast by Wednesday evening, followed
by a turn toward the north-northeast Thursday morning. On this
track, the core of Hurricane Dorian will move dangerously close to
the Florida east coast and the Georgia coast tonight through
Wednesday night. The center of Dorian is forecast to move near or
over the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina Thursday through
Friday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the
next couple of days.

Dorian has become a larger hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-
force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

The latest minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance data is 959 mb (28.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue on Grand Bahama
Island and along the Treasure Coast of Florida tonight. Tropical
Storm conditions are expected to begin within the Tropical Storm
Warning area in north Florida and Georgia late tonight or early
Wednesday.

Hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the Hurricane
Warning area in Florida overnight. Tropical Storm conditions will
begin within the Hurricane Warning area in the Carolinas Wednesday,
with hurricane conditions by Wednesday night.

STORM SURGE: Water levels should very slowly subside on Grand
Bahamas Island and the Abaco Islands through tonight. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Savannah River to Cape Lookout NC...4 to 7 ft
Volusia/Brevard County Line FL to Savannah River...3 to 5 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...3 to 5 ft
Jupiter Inlet FL to Volusia/Brevard County Line FL...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Northwestern Bahamas...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm
totals over 30 inches.
Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula north of West Palm Beach
through Georgia and across southeast Virginia...3 to 6 inches

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and
the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through
North Carolina during the next several days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible near the immediate east
coast of Florida through tonight. This risk will shift to along
the immediate coastal Georgia and the coastal Carolinas on Wednesday
into Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-03 20:50

WTNT25 KNHC 032048
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
2100 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO SURF
CITY NORTH CAROLINA.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO DUCK...NORTH
CAROLINA INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS AND THE NEUSE
AND PAMLICO RIVERS.

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SAVANNAH RIVER TO EDISTO
BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA AND FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO
SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA.

THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND FOR
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT SOUTHWARD.

THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET FLORIDA.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF JUPITER
INLET.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JUPITER INLET FL TO SURF CITY NC

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NC TO DUCK NC
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SEBASTIAN INLET FL TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH FL
* NORTH OF SAVANNAH RIVER TO SURF CITY NC

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PONTE VEDRA BEACH FL TO SAVANNAH RIVER
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NC TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND BAHAMA AND THE ABACOS ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* NORTH OF PONTE VEDRA BEACH FL TO SAVANNAH RIVER
* JUPITER INLET FL TO SEBASTIAN INLET FL

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT SOUTHWARD

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR
A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN...AS
ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 78.7W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 45NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT.......150NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 100SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 78.7W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 78.7W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 28.7N 79.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 30.0N 80.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 31.4N 80.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 110SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 32.6N 79.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 45NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 110SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 36.1N 74.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 42.0N 65.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 50.0N 55.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.7N 78.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 04/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-09-03 19:59

WTNT65 KNHC 031956
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
400 PM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...DORIAN PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST...

The eyewall of Dorian continues to move away from Grand Bahama
Island. However, dangerous winds and life-threatening storm surge
will continue over that island through this evening.

The hurricane is moving nearly parallel to, but offshore of, the
east coast of Florida. A sustained wind of 42 mph (69 km/h) and a
wind gust of 60 mph (96 km/h) were recently reported at a weather
station in Melbourne Beach, Florida.


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 78.6W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM N OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM E OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Latto/Cangialosi

>

2019-09-03 18:57

WTNT65 KNHC 031855
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
300 PM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...CORE OF DORIAN MOVING AWAY FROM GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...
...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OCCURRING ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST...

The eyewall of Dorian continues to move away from Grand Bahama
Island. However, dangerous winds and life-threatening storm surge
will continue over that island through this evening.

A sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a wind gust of 49 mph
(80 km/h) were recently reported at a weather station in Sebastian
Inlet, Florida.


SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 78.7W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM N OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan

>

2019-09-03 17:55

WTNT35 KNHC 031753
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 41A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...DORIAN'S CORE MOVING FINALLY MOVING AWAY FROM GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...
...DANGEROUS WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE WILL CONTINUE
ON GRAND BAHAMA THROUGH THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 78.7W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM N OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has changed the Hurricane Warning to
a Tropical Storm Warning for Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands
in the northwestern Bahamas.

The Tropical Storm Watch for Lake Okeechobee has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet FL to South Santee River SC

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of South Santee River SC to Cape Lookout NC

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet FL to Ponte Vedra Beach FL
* North of Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Edisto Beach SC
* North of South Santee River SC to Duck NC
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas
* North of Deerfield Beach FL to Jupiter Inlet FL
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Edisto Beach SC

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts of
the United States should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian,
as additional watches or warnings may be required today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located
by NWS Doppler radar near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 78.7 West.
Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a
slightly faster motion toward the northwest or north-northwest is
expected later today and tonight. A turn toward the north is
forecast by Wednesday evening, followed by a turn toward the
north-northeast Thursday morning. On this track, the core of
extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will gradually move north of
Grand Bahama Island through this evening. The hurricane will then
move dangerously close to the Florida east coast late today through
Wednesday evening, very near the Georgia and South Carolina coasts
Wednesday night and Thursday, and near or over the North Carolina
coast late Thursday and Thursday night.

Data from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum
sustained winds remain near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts.
Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next
couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The latest minimum central pressure based on data from Air Force
Reserve and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is 959 mb (28.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions will continue on
Grand Bahama Island through tonight.

Hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the Hurricane
Warning area in Florida overnight. Hurricane conditions are
possible in the Hurricane Watch area as early as Wednesday and could
spread northward within the watch area through Thursday.

In South Florida, tropical storm conditions are expected within the
Tropical Storm Warning area through today. Along the coast of
northeastern Florida and Georgia, tropical storm conditions are
expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area on Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: Water levels should very slowly subside on Grand
Bahamas Island and the Abaco Islands through tonight. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Flagler/Volusia County Line FL to Cape Lookout NC...4 to 7 ft
Jupiter Inlet FL to the Flagler/Volusia County Line FL...3 to 5 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Northwestern Bahamas...Additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm
totals over 30 inches.
Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula north of West Palm Beach
through Georgia...3 to 6 inches, isolated 9 inches.
Southeast Virginia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells are affecting the northwestern Bahamas, the
Florida east coast, and the coast of Georgia. These swells are
expected to spread northward along much of the remainder of the
southeastern United States coast during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible near the immediate east
coast of Florida through tonight. This risk will shift to along
the immediate coastal Georgia and the coastal Carolinas on Wednesday
into Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-03 17:01

WTNT65 KNHC 031659
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
100 PM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...CORE OF DORIAN MOVING AWAY FROM GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...

The eyewall of Dorian has moved north of Grand Bahama Island.
However, dangerous winds and life-threatening storm surge will
continue over that island through this evening.

Wind gusts to tropical storm force are now occuring along the
Treasure Coast of Florida. A Weatherflow station at Sebastian Inlet
recently reported a wind gust of 49 mph (80 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 78.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM N OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM E OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...5 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-09-03 15:56

WTNT65 KNHC 031555
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1200 PM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...DANGEROUS WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE CONTINUING ON
GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts to 130 mph
- Storm Surge 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves
- Extreme flooding from up to 30 inches of rain

These hazards will continue over Grand Bahama Island through much of
today.

Wind gusts to tropical storm force are now occuring along the
Treasure Coast of Florida. A Weatherflow station at Jensen Beach
recently reported a wind gust of 46 mph (74 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 78.6W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM N OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-03 14:53

WTNT45 KNHC 031451
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

Recent radar and aircraft data show that Dorian has finally begun to
move northwestward, but dangerous winds and life-threatening storm
surge will continue over Grand Bahama Island for much of today. The
eye has become cloud filled in infrared and visible satellite
imagery. While aircraft and radar data indicate that the eye has
increased in size, it is also a bit more ragged. Recent reports
from reconnaissance aircraft and data buoys indicate that overall
wind field of the hurricane is slowly expanding, while the peak
winds have come down a little more. The latest reports from the
aircraft support an initial intensity of 95 kt. As Dorian moves
near the east coast of Florida during the next day or two, little
overall change in intensity is anticipated. After that time,
increasing shear should result in a gradual decrease in the peak
wind speed while the hurricane gains latitude and grows in size.
The official forecast is in good agreement with the intensity
consensus models.

The initial motion estimate is 320/2 kt. A shortwave trough moving
into the Great Lakes region is forecast by the global models to
amplify a deep-layer trough along the east coast of the United
States on Wednesday. This should allow Dorian to begin moving
slightly faster toward the north-northwest during the next 36 hours,
followed by a northward and then northeastward motion near or over
the coasts of South and North Carolina. After moving offshore of
the Outer Banks, Dorian should get caught in the mid-latitude
westerlies and accelerate northeastward. The NHC track is along the
western edge of the interpolated track models through 36 hours,
closer to what is depicted in the various global fields. After that
time, the official forecast is near a blend of the faster GFS and
slower ECMWF models.

Although the official forecast does not show Dorian making landfall
along the Florida east coast, the increasing size of Dorian's wind
field along with any deviation to the left of the forecast track
will bring hurricane-force winds onshore along portions of the
Florida east coast.

The new forecast has necessitated numerous changes to watches
and warnings along the southeastern United States coast.

Key Messages:

1. Dangerous winds and storm surge will continue to affect Grand
Bahama Island for several more hours. Everyone there should remain
in shelter.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected
along portions of the Florida east coast and the coasts of Georgia
and South Carolina, regardless of the exact track of Dorian's
center. Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the
arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow
advice given by local emergency officials.

3. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force
winds continues to increase along the coast of North Carolina.
Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local
emergency officials.

4. The flash flood threat will increase today and tonight along the
Florida peninsula, then spread up the southeast and mid-Atlantic
coast during the middle and latter part of the week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 27.1N 78.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 27.9N 79.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 29.2N 79.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 30.7N 79.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 32.1N 79.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 35.3N 75.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 40.5N 66.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 48.0N 57.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-03 14:52

WTNT35 KNHC 031450
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...DORIAN FINALLY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AND GROWING IN SIZE...
...DANGEROUS WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE CONTINUES ON
GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 78.6W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM N OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended northward to South Santee
River, South Carolina.

The Storm Surge Watch has been extended northward to Cape Lookout,
North Carolina.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the coast of South Carolina
from north of Edisto Beach to the South Santee River.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued from north of South Santee River
to Duck, North Carolina, including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended north to Edisto Beach,
South Carolina.

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued south of Jupiter
Inlet, Florida.

The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued south of Lantana,
Florida has been discontinued.

The Hurricane Watch from Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet has
been discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Watch from Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach has
been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet FL to South Santee River SC

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of South Santee River SC to Cape Lookout NC

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas
* Jupiter Inlet FL to Ponte Vedra Beach FL
* North of Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Edisto Beach SC
* North of South Santee River SC to Duck NC
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach FL to Jupiter Inlet FL
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Edisto Beach SC

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts of
the United States should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian,
as additional watches or warnings may be required today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was
located near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 78.6 West. Dorian is
moving toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h), and a slightly
faster motion toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected
later today and tonight. A turn toward the north is forecast by
Wednesday evening, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast
Thursday morning. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous
Hurricane Dorian will gradually move north of Grand Bahama Island
through this evening. The hurricane will then move dangerously
close to the Florida east coast late today through Wednesday
evening, very near the Georgia and South Carolina coasts Wednesday
night and Thursday, and near or over the North Carolina coast late
Thursday and Thursday night.

Data from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum
sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts.
Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next
couple of days.

Data from aircraft and buoys indicate that the hurricane is growing
in size. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95
km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up
to 175 miles (280 km).

The latest minimum central pressure based on data from Air Force
Reserve and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions will continue on
Grand Bahama Island through tonight.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area
in Florida by this evening. Hurricane conditions are possible in
the Hurricane Watch area as early as Wednesday and could spread
northward within the watch through Thursday.

In South Florida, tropical storm conditions are expected within the
Tropical Storm Warning area through today. Along the coast of
northeastern Florida and Georgia, tropical storm conditions are
expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area on Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds on Grand Bahama Island. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Water levels
should very slowly subside on the Abaco Islands today.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Flagler/Volusia County Line FL to Cape Lookout NC...4 to 7 ft
Jupiter Inlet FL to the Flagler/Volusia County Line FL...3 to 5 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Northwestern Bahamas...Additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm
totals over 30 inches.
Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula north of West Palm Beach
through Georgia...3 to 6 inches, isolated 9 inches.
Southeast Virginia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells are affecting the northwestern Bahamas, the
Florida east coast, and the coast of Georgia. These swells are
expected to spread northward along much of the remainder of the
southeastern United States coast during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible near the immediate east
coast of Florida through tonight. This risk will shift to along
the immediate coastal Georgia and the coastal Carolinas on Wednesday
into Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-03 14:51

WTNT25 KNHC 031449
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
1500 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO CAPE
LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA
FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTH TO EDISTO
BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA.

THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF JUPITER
INLET FLORIDA.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF LANTANA FLORIDA
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER INLET HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM GOLDEN BEACH TO DEERFIELD BEACH HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JUPITER INLET FL TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC TO CAPE LOOKOUT NC

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND BAHAMA AND THE ABACOS ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* JUPITER INLET FL TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH FL
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SC TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PONTE VEDRA BEACH FL TO EDISTO BEACH SC
* NORTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC TO DUCK NC
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH FL TO JUPITER INLET FL
* NORTH OF PONTE VEDRA BEACH FL TO EDISTO BEACH SC

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR
A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS OF
THE UNITED STATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DORIAN...AS ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 78.6W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT.......150NE 130SE 90SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 100SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 78.6W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 78.4W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 27.9N 79.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 29.2N 79.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 30.7N 79.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 45NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 32.1N 79.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 45NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 35.3N 75.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 40.5N 66.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 48.0N 57.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.1N 78.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 03/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-09-03 13:59

WTNT65 KNHC 031356
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1000 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...DANGEROUS WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE CONTINUING ON
GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts to 140 mph
- Storm Surge 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves
- Extreme flooding from up to 30 inches of rain

These hazards will continue over Grand Bahama Island through much of
today.

Wind gusts to tropical storm force are now occuring along the
Treasure Coast of Florida. A Weatherflow station at Melbourne
Beach Barrier Island Sanctuary recently reported a wind gust of 41
mph (67 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 78.6W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM N OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ENE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan

>

2019-09-03 12:57

WTNT65 KNHC 031255
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
900 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...DANGEROUS WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE CONTINUING ON
GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts to 140 mph
- Storm Surge 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves
- Extreme flooding from up to 30 inches of rain

These hazards will continue over Grand Bahama Island through much of
today.


SUMMARY OF 900 AM EDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 78.5W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NNE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM ENE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan

>

2019-09-03 11:53

WTNT35 KNHC 031150
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 40A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...EYE OF DORIAN BEGINNING TO INCH NORTHWESTWARD...
...SOUTHERN EYEWALL CONTINUES TO POUND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 78.4W
ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM ENE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Lantana FL to Savannah River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach FL to south of Lantana FL
* Savannah River to South Santee River SC

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas
* Jupiter Inlet FL to Ponte Vedra Beach FL

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach FL to Jupiter Inlet FL
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to South Santee River SC

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach FL to Jupiter Inlet FL
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Altamaha Sound GA

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Golden Beach FL to Deerfield Beach FL
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts of
the United States should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian,
as additional watches or warnings may be required today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located by
reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler radar near latitude 27.1
North, longitude 78.4 West. Dorian is beginning to move
northwestward at about 1 mph (2 km/h), and a slightly faster motion
toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected later today and
tonight. A turn toward the north is forecast by Wednesday evening,
followed by a turn to the north-northeast Thursday morning. On this
track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will
gradually move north of Grand Bahama Island through this evening.
The hurricane will then move dangerously close to the Florida east
coast late today through Wednesday evening, very near the Georgia
and South Carolina coasts Wednesday night and Thursday, and near or
over the North Carolina coast late Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Dorian is expected to remain a powerful
hurricane during the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to
160 miles (260 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance
aircraft is 952 mb (28.11 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Devastating hurricane conditions continue on Grand Bahama
Island.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area
in Florida by this evening. Hurricane conditions are possible in
the Hurricane Watch area beginning Wednesday.

In South Florida, tropical storm conditions are expected within the
Tropical Storm Warning area through today, and are possible in the
Tropical Storm Watch area through this morning. Along the coast of
northeastern Florida and Georgia, tropical storm conditions are
expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area on Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds on Grand Bahama Island. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Water levels
should very slowly subside on the Abaco Islands today.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Flagler/Volusia County Line to South Santee River SC...4 to 7 ft
Lantana FL to the Flagler/Volusia County Line...3 to 5 ft
North of Deerfield Beach FL to Lantana FL...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Northwestern Bahamas...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated storm
totals over 30 inches.
Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula north of West Palm Beach
through Georgia...3 to 6 inches, isolated 9 inches.
Southeast Virginia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells are affecting the northwestern Bahamas, the
Florida east coast, and the coast of Georgia. These swells are
expected to spread northward along much of the remainder of the
southeastern United States coast during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible near the immediate east
coast of Florida through tonight. This risk will shift to along
the immediate coastal Georgia and the coastal Carolinas on Wednesday
into Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-03 11:00

WTNT65 KNHC 031058
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
700 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...SOUTHERN EYEWALL OF DORIAN CONTINUES TO LASH GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts to 150 mph
- Storm Surge 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves
- Extreme flooding from up to 30 inches of rain

These hazards will continue over Grand Bahama Island through today.


SUMMARY OF 700 AM EDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 78.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM ENE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-03 09:55

WTNT65 KNHC 030953
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
600 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INVESTIGATING DORIAN...

Residents should remain in shelter on Grand Bahama Island as they
continue to experience Dorian's eyewall.

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts to 150 mph
- Storm Surge 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves

These hazards will continue over Grand Bahama Island through today.


SUMMARY OF 600 AM EDT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 78.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-03 08:56

WTNT45 KNHC 030854
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

Dorian continues to pound Grand Bahama Island early this morning
while moving little. The eyewall has become a little less
defined over the past few hours on radar. On infrared satellite
images, the eye remains fairly well defined, but the surrounding
deep convection is somewhat fragmented. Upper-level outflow is a
bit restricted over the western semicircle of the circulation. The
initial intensity is held at 105 kt, which is a blend of subjective
Dvorak data-T numbers from TAFB and SAB. Dorian is expected to more
or less maintain its intensity for about 36 hours. After that time
period, increasing vertical shear should cause gradual weakening.
However, the system is likely to remain a major hurricane for the
next few days. The official forecast is closest to the latest LGEM
guidance.

Dorian has been nearly stationary for the past 18 hours, as
steering currents in its vicinity have collapsed. The global
models indicate that a weakness in the subtropical ridge will
develop in response to a trough that will amplify along the east
coast of the United States within the next day or so. Dorian
should respond to these changes by beginning to move
north-northwestward toward the weakness in the ridge a little later
today. The system should turn northward with a gradual increase in
forward speed as it moves through the weakness in around 48 hours.
Later in the period, the cyclone should accelerate northeastward on
the southern side of the trough. The official track forecast is
similar to the previous one, and is fairly close to the model
consensus.

Although the official forecast does not show Dorian making landfall
along the Florida east coast, users are reminded not to forecast on
the exact forecast track. A relatively small deviation to the
left of this track could bring the core of the hurricane near or
over the coastline.


Key Messages:

1. Devastating winds and storm surge will continue to affect Grand
Bahama Island for several more hours. Everyone there should remain
in shelter.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds
are expected along portions of the Florida east coast and the coasts
of Georgia and South Carolina, regardless of the exact track of
Dorian's center. Water levels could begin to rise well in advance
of the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should
follow advice given by local emergency officials.

3. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force
winds continues to increase along the coast of North Carolina.
Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local
emergency officials.

4. The flash flood threat will increase today and tonight along the
Florida peninsula, then spread up the southeast and mid-Atlantic
coast during the middle and latter part of the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 26.9N 78.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 27.5N 78.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 28.5N 79.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 29.9N 79.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 31.4N 79.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 34.3N 76.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 39.0N 69.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 46.5N 59.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2019-09-03 08:55

WTNT35 KNHC 030853
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...DORIAN STILL NEARLY STATIONARY BUT EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD LATER THIS MORNING...
...CONTINUES TO POUND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 78.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued north of Ponte Vedra Beach
Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Lantana FL to Savannah River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach FL to south of Lantana FL
* Savannah River to South Santee River SC

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas
* Jupiter Inlet FL to Ponte Vedra Beach FL

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach FL to Jupiter Inlet FL
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to South Santee River SC

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach FL to Jupiter Inlet FL
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Altamaha Sound GA

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Golden Beach FL to Deerfield Beach FL
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts of
the United States should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian,
as additional watches or warnings may be required today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located
by NOAA Doppler radar near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 78.4 West.
Dorian is stationary just north of Grand Bahama Island. A slow
north-northwestward motion is expected to begin this morning. A
turn to the north is forecast by Wednesday evening, followed by a
turn to the north-northeast Thursday morning. On this track, the
core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will continue to pound
Grand Bahama Island today. The hurricane will then move dangerously
close to the Florida east coast late today through Wednesday
evening, very near the Georgia and South Carolina coasts Wednesday
night and Thursday, and near or over the North Carolina coast late
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Dorian is expected to remain a powerful
hurricane during the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km). A wind gust to 61 mph (98 km/h) was recently
reported at Juno Beach Pier, Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Devastating hurricane conditions continue on Grand Bahama
Island.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area
in Florida by this evening. Hurricane conditions are possible in
the Hurricane Watch area beginning Wednesday.

In South Florida, tropical storm conditions are expected within the
Tropical Storm Warning area through today, and are possible in the
Tropical Storm Watch area through this morning. Along the coast of
northeastern Florida and Georgia, tropical storm conditions are
expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area on Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds on Grand Bahama Island. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Water levels
should very slowly subside on the Abaco Islands today.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Lantana FL to South Santee River SC...4 to 7 ft
North of Deerfield Beach FL to Lantana FL...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Northwestern Bahamas...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated storm
totals over 30 inches.
Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula north of West Palm Beach
through Georgia...3 to 6 inches, isolated 9 inches.
Southeast Virginia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells are affecting the northwestern Bahamas, the
Florida east coast, and the coast of Georgia. These swells are
expected to spread northward along much of the remainder of the
southeastern United States coast during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible near the immediate east
coast of Florida through tonight. This risk will shift to immediate
coastal Georgia and the coastal Carolinas on Wednesday into
Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2019-09-03 08:54

WTNT25 KNHC 030852
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
0900 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF PONTE VEDRA
BEACH FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LANTANA FL TO SAVANNAH RIVER

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH FL TO SOUTH OF LANTANA FL
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND BAHAMA AND THE ABACOS ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* JUPITER INLET FL TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH FL

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH FL TO JUPITER INLET FL
* NORTH OF PONTE VEDRA BEACH FL TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH FL TO JUPITER INLET FL
* NORTH OF PONTE VEDRA BEACH FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH FL TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS OF
THE UNITED STATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DORIAN...AS ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 78.4W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 130SE 90SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 78.4W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 78.4W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 27.5N 78.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 28.5N 79.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 29.9N 79.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 31.4N 79.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 34.3N 76.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 39.0N 69.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 46.5N 59.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.9N 78.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 03/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2019-09-03 07:58

WTNT65 KNHC 030756
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
400 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...DORIAN'S SOUTHERN EYEWALL PLANTED OVER GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...

Residents should remain in shelter on Grand Bahama Island as they
continue to experience Dorian's eyewall.

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts to 150 mph
- Storm Surge 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves

These hazards will continue over Grand Bahama Island through today.


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EDT...0800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 78.4W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-03 06:54

WTNT65 KNHC 030652
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
300 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...DORIAN REMAINS AT A STANDSTILL...

Residents should remain in shelter on Grand Bahama Island as they
continue to experience Dorian's eyewall.

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts to 150 mph
- Storm Surge 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves

These hazards will continue over Grand Bahama Island through today.


SUMMARY OF 300 AM EDT...0700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 78.4W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-03 05:58

WTNT35 KNHC 030556
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 39A...Resent
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...DORIAN STILL STATIONARY...
...CONTINUES TO PUMMEL GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 78.4W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Lantana FL to Savannah River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach FL to south of Lantana FL
* Savannah River to South Santee River SC

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas
* Jupiter Inlet FL to Ponte Vedra Beach FL

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach FL to Jupiter Inlet FL
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to South Santee River SC

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach FL to Jupiter Inlet FL

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Golden Beach FL to Deerfield Beach FL
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts of
the United States should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian,
as additional watches may be required today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 78.4 West. Dorian is stationary
just north of Grand Bahama Island. A slow northwestward motion is
expected to occur early today. A turn toward the north-northwest is
forecast by this evening, with a turn to the north forecast by
Wednesday, followed by a turn to the northeast on Thursday. On this
track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will
continue to pound Grand Bahama Island today. The hurricane will
then move dangerously close to the Florida east coast late today
through Wednesday evening, very near the Georgia and South Carolina
coasts Wednesday night and Thursday, and near or over the North
Carolina coast late Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Although gradual weakening is forecast,
Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next
couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km). Settlement Point, Grand Bahama, recently reported a
sustained wind of 63 mph (102 km/h) with a gust to 89 mph (143
km/h), and Juno Beach Pier in northern Palm Beach County, Florida,
recently reported a sustained wind of 49 mph (80 km/h) with a gust
to 60 mph (96 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.05 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Devastating hurricane conditions continue on Grand Bahama
Island.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area
in Florida by this evening. Hurricane conditions are possible in
the Hurricane Watch area beginning Wednesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm
warning area through today, and are possible in the Tropical
Storm watch area through this morning.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds on Grand Bahama Island. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Water levels
should very slowly subside on the Abaco Islands today.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Lantana FL to South Santee River SC...4 to 7 ft
North of Deerfield Beach FL to Lantana FL...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through late this week:

Northwestern Bahamas...Additional 6 to 12 inches, isolated storm
totals of 30 inches.
Central Bahamas...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals
of 6 inches.
Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula through Georgia...4 to 8
inches, isolated 10 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells are affecting the northwestern Bahamas, the
Florida east coast, and the coast of Georgia. These swells are
expected to spread northward along much of the remainder of the
southeastern United States coast during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible near the immediate east
coast of Florida through today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2019-09-03 05:48

WTNT35 KNHC 030546
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 39A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...DORIAN STILL STATIONARY...
...CONTINUES TO PUMMEL GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND..


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 78.4W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Lantana FL to Savannah River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach FL to south of Lantana FL
* Savannah River to South Santee River SC

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas
* Jupiter Inlet FL to Ponte Vedra Beach FL

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach FL to Jupiter Inlet FL
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to South Santee River SC

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach FL to Jupiter Inlet FL

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Golden Beach FL to Deerfield Beach FL
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts of
the United States should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian,
as additional watches may be required today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 78.4 West. Dorian is stationary
just north of Grand Bahama Island. A slow northwestward motion is
expected to occur early today. A turn toward the north-northwest
is forecast by this evening, with a turn to the north forecast by
Wednesday, followed by a turn to the northeast on Thursday. On this
track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will
continue to pound Grand Bahama Island today. The hurricane will
then move dangerously close to the Florida east coast late today
through Wednesday evening, very near the Georgia and South Carolina
coasts Wednesday night and Thursday, and near or over the North
Carolina coast late Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Although gradual weakening is forecast,
Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next
couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km). Settlement Point, Grand Bahama, recently reported a
sustained wind of 63 mph (102 km/h) with a gust to 89 mph (143
km/h), and Juno Beach Pier in northern Palm Beach County, Florida,
recently reported a sustained wind of 49 mph (80 km/h) with a gust
to 60 mph (96 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.05 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Devastating hurricane conditions continue on Grand Bahama
Island.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area
in Florida by this evening. Hurricane conditions are possible in
the Hurricane Watch area beginning Wednesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm
warning area through today, and are possible in the Tropical
Storm watch area through this morning.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds on Grand Bahama Island. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Water levels
should very slowly subside on the Abaco Islands today.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Lantana FL to South Santee River SC...4 to 7 ft
North of Deerfield Beach FL to Lantana FL...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through late this week:

Northwestern Bahamas...Additional 6 to 12 inches, isolated storm
totals of 30 inches.
Central Bahamas...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals
of 6 inches.
Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula through Georgia...4 to 8
inches, isolated 10 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells are affecting the northwestern Bahamas, the
Florida east coast, and the coast of Georgia. These swells are
expected to spread northward along much of the remainder of the
southeastern United States coast during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible near the immediate east
coast of Florida through today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2019-09-03 04:58

WTNT65 KNHC 030456
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
100 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...DORIAN WON'T BUDGE...

Residents should remain in shelter on Grand Bahama Island as they
continue to experience Dorian's eyewall.

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts to 155 mph
- Storm Surge 12 to 18 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves

These hazards will continue over Grand Bahama Island through today.

Settlement Point on the western tip of Grand Bahama Island recently
reported a sustained wind of 61 mph (98 km/h) and a gust to 85 mph
(137 km/h).

Juno Beach Pier in northern Palm Beach County, Florida, recently
reported a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust to 58 mph
(93 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 100 AM EDT...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 78.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-03 04:11

WTNT25 KNHC 030408 CCA
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
0300 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019

CORRECTION TO CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS AND THE STORM SURGE
WATCH AND WARNING AREA

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD FROM ALTAMAHA
SOUND TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LANTANA FL TO SAVANNAH RIVER

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH FL TO SOUTH OF LANTANA FL
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND BAHAMA AND THE ABACOS ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* JUPITER INLET FL TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH FL

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH FL TO JUPITER INLET FL
* NORTH OF PONTE VEDRA BEACH FL TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH FL TO JUPITER INLET FL

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH FL TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN...AS ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 78.5W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 130SE 90SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 78.5W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 78.4W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 27.1N 78.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 27.9N 79.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 29.2N 79.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 30.6N 79.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 33.7N 77.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 38.0N 71.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 45.4N 61.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.9N 78.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 03/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2019-09-03 03:58

WTNT65 KNHC 030356
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1200 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...DORIAN'S EYE WOBBLING NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...

Residents should remain in shelter on Grand Bahama Island as they
are currently experiencing the eyewall of Dorian.

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts to 160 mph
- Storm Surge 12 to 18 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves

These hazards will continue over Grand Bahama Island through today.


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM EDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 78.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-03 03:20

WTNT35 KNHC 030318 CCA
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 39...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

Correction to the storm surge watch area

...EXTREMELY POWERFUL HURRICANE DORIAN IS STILL STATIONARY AND
CONTINUES TO PUMMEL GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 78.5W
ABOUT 30 MI...55 KM NNE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended northward from Altamaha
Sound, GA to the Savannah River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Lantana FL to Savannah River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach FL to south of Lantana FL
* Savannah River to South Santee River SC

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas
* Jupiter Inlet FL to Ponte Vedra Beach FL

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach FL to Jupiter Inlet FL
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to South Santee River SC

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach FL to Jupiter Inlet FL

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Golden Beach FL to Deerfield Beach FL
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts of
the United States should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian,
as additional watches may be required tonight and Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 78.5 West. Dorian is stationary
just north of Grand Bahama Island. A slow northwestward motion is
expected to occur early Tuesday. A turn toward the north is
forecast by late Tuesday, with a northeastward motion forecast to
begin by Wednesday night. On this track, the core of extremely
dangerous Hurricane Dorian will continue to pound Grand Bahama
Island into Tuesday morning. The hurricane will then move
dangerously close to the Florida east coast late Tuesday through
Wednesday evening, very near the Georgia and South Carolina coasts
Wednesday night and Thursday, and near or over the North Carolina
coast late Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Although gradual weakening is forecast,
Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next
couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km). Settlement Point Grand Bahama recently reported a
sustained wind of 61 mph (98 km/h) with a gust to 82 mph (132 km/h),
and Juno Beach Pier in northern Palm Beach County Florida recently
reported a sustained wind of 44 mph (70 km/h) with a gust to 56 mph
(91 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters was 946 mb (27.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Devastating hurricane conditions continue on Grand Bahama
Island. Do not venture out into the eye, as winds will suddenly
increase after the eye passes.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area
in Florida on Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the
Hurricane Watch area beginning Wednesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm
warning area through Tuesday, and are possible in the Tropical
Storm watch area through early Tuesday.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 12 to 18 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds on Grand Bahama Island. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Water levels
should very slowly subside on the Abaco Islands on Tuesday.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Lantana FL to South Santee River SC...4 to 7 ft
North of Deerfield Beach FL to Lantana FL...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through late this week:

Northwestern Bahamas...Additional 6 to 12 inches, isolated storm
totals of 30 inches.
Central Bahamas...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals
of 6 inches.
Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula through Georgia...4 to 8
inches, isolated 10 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells are affecting the northwestern Bahamas, the
Florida east coast, and the coast of Georgia. These swells are
expected to spread northward along much of the remainder of the
southeastern United States coast during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible near the immediate east
coast of Florida through Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-09-03 02:54

WTNT45 KNHC 030252
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

Dorian continues to pummel Grand Bahama Island this evening. The
hurricane still has an impressive presentation in satellite and
radar images, however, there have been occasional dry slots
observed in the western part of the eyewall. Both the NOAA and
Air Force Hurricane Hunters provided excellent data in Dorian this
evening, and based primarily on the flight-level wind data from the
aircraft, the initial intensity of Dorian is set to 115 kt. The
westernmost outer rain bands are reaching the east coast of south
Florida and producing gusty winds.

The major hurricane has been stationary much of the day. The reason
the cyclone has moved very little is because it is caught in weak
steering currents between high pressure ridges to its east and
northwest and a trough to its north. This weak flow should result
in a very slow and likely erratic northwest drift through at least
early Tuesday. After that time, the models are in general agreement
that the ridge to the east and trough to the north will amplify.
This change in the steering pattern should cause Dorian to move a
little faster to the north on Wednesday and to the northeast on
Thursday and Friday. The NHC track forecast remains consistent and
continues to show the core of Dorian offshore, but dangerously close
to the east coast of the U.S. from Florida to North Carolina during
the next 3 days or so. This track forecast is largely an update of
the previous one and it is in good agreement with the various
consensus models. Users are reminded that the hurricane is not a
point, and that life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force
winds extend far from the center. Regardless of the exact forecast
track, Dorian is likely to produce strong winds and a
life-threatening storm surge along a portion of the U.S. east coast
from Florida through the Carolinas.

The intensity models are in agreement that Dorian should slowly
lose strength during the next several days due to a gradual
increase in wind shear and perhaps drier air. Regardless of the
details of the intensity forecast, the bottom line is that Dorian is
expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it tracks very near the
east coast of the U.S. from Florida to North Carolina during the
next few days. The NHC intensity forecast is the same as the
previous one and close to the HCCA and IVCN guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Devastating winds and storm surge will continue to affect Grand
Bahama Island for several more hours. Everyone there should remain
in shelter.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds
are expected along portions of the Florida east coast and the coasts
of Georgia and South Carolina, regardless of the exact track of
Dorian's center. Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of
the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow
advice given by local emergency officials.

3. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force
winds continues to increase along the coast of North Carolina.
Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local
emergency officials.

4. Heavy rains, capable of producing life-threatening flash floods,
are expected over northern portions of the Bahamas and coastal
sections of the southeast and lower mid-Atlantic regions of the
United States through Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 26.9N 78.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 27.1N 78.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 27.9N 79.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 29.2N 79.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 30.6N 79.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 33.7N 77.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 38.0N 71.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 45.4N 61.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-09-03 02:49

WTNT35 KNHC 030247
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

...EXTREMELY POWERFUL HURRICANE DORIAN IS STILL STATIONARY AND
CONTINUES TO PUMMEL GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 78.5W
ABOUT 30 MI...55 KM NNE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended northward from Altamaha
Sound, GA to the Savannah River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Lantana FL to Savannah River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach FL to south of Lantana FL
* Altamaha Sound GA to South Santee River SC

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas
* Jupiter Inlet FL to Ponte Vedra Beach FL

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach FL to Jupiter Inlet FL
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to South Santee River SC

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach FL to Jupiter Inlet FL

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Golden Beach FL to Deerfield Beach FL
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts of
the United States should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian,
as additional watches may be required tonight and Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 78.5 West. Dorian is stationary
just north of Grand Bahama Island. A slow northwestward motion is
expected to occur early Tuesday. A turn toward the north is
forecast by late Tuesday, with a northeastward motion forecast to
begin by Wednesday night. On this track, the core of extremely
dangerous Hurricane Dorian will continue to pound Grand Bahama
Island into Tuesday morning. The hurricane will then move
dangerously close to the Florida east coast late Tuesday through
Wednesday evening, very near the Georgia and South Carolina coasts
Wednesday night and Thursday, and near or over the North Carolina
coast late Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Although gradual weakening is forecast,
Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next
couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km). Settlement Point Grand Bahama recently reported a
sustained wind of 61 mph (98 km/h) with a gust to 82 mph (132 km/h),
and Juno Beach Pier in northern Palm Beach County Florida recently
reported a sustained wind of 44 mph (70 km/h) with a gust to 56 mph
(91 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters was 946 mb (27.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Devastating hurricane conditions continue on Grand Bahama
Island. Do not venture out into the eye, as winds will suddenly
increase after the eye passes.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area
in Florida on Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the
Hurricane Watch area beginning Wednesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm
warning area through Tuesday, and are possible in the Tropical
Storm watch area through early Tuesday.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 12 to 18 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds on Grand Bahama Island. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Water levels
should very slowly subside on the Abaco Islands on Tuesday.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Lantana FL to South Santee River SC...4 to 7 ft
North of Deerfield Beach FL to Lantana FL...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through late this week:

Northwestern Bahamas...Additional 6 to 12 inches, isolated storm
totals of 30 inches.
Central Bahamas...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals
of 6 inches.
Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula through Georgia...4 to 8
inches, isolated 10 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells are affecting the northwestern Bahamas, the
Florida east coast, and the coast of Georgia. These swells are
expected to spread northward along much of the remainder of the
southeastern United States coast during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible near the immediate east
coast of Florida through Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-09-03 02:48

WTNT25 KNHC 030246
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
0300 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LANTANA FL TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH FL TO SOUTH OF LANTANA FL
* ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND BAHAMA AND THE ABACOS ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* JUPITER INLET FL TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH FL

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH FL TO JUPITER INLET FL
* NORTH OF PONTE VEDRA BEACH FL TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH FL TO JUPITER INLET FL

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH FL TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A DEPICTION
OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS
A
LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS
SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM
RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN...AS ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 78.5W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 130SE 90SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 78.5W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 78.4W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 27.1N 78.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 27.9N 79.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 29.2N 79.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 30.6N 79.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 33.7N 77.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 38.0N 71.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 45.4N 61.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.9N 78.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 03/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2019-09-03 01:57

WTNT65 KNHC 030155
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1000 PM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS DORIAN REMAINS STATIONARY AND CONTINUES TO
THRASH GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...

Residents should remain in shelter on Grand Bahama Island as they
are currently experiencing the eyewall of Dorian. Residents in the
Abacos should also continue to stay in their shelter until
conditions subside later tonight.

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts to 165 mph
- Storm Surge 12 to 18 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves

These hazards will continue over Grand Bahama Island through
Tuesday morning, causing extreme destruction on the island.


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 78.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Latto/Cangialosi

>

2019-09-03 01:48

WTNT65 KNHC 030146
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
900 PM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS DORIAN REMAINS STATIONARY AND CONTINUES TO
THRASH GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...

Residents should remain in shelter on Grand Bahama Island as they
are currently experiencing the eyewall of Dorian. Residents in the
Abacos should also continue to stay in their shelter until
conditions subside later tonight.

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts to 165 mph
- Storm Surge 12 to 18 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves

These hazards will continue over Grand Bahama Island through
Tuesday morning, causing extreme destruction on the island.


SUMMARY OF 900 PM EDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 78.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Latto/Cangialosi

>

2019-09-03 00:54

WTNT65 KNHC 030052
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
900 PM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS DORIAN REMAINS STATIONARY AND CONTINUES TO
HAMMER GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...

Residents should remain in shelter on Grand Bahama Island as they
are currently experiencing the eyewall of Dorian. Residents in the
Abacos should also continue to stay in their shelter until
conditions subside later tonight.

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts to 165 mph
- Storm Surge 12 to 18 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves

These hazards will continue over Grand Bahama Island through
Tuesday morning, causing extreme destruction on the island.


SUMMARY OF 900 PM EDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 78.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Latto/Cangialosi

>

2019-09-02 23:50

WTNT35 KNHC 022348
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 38A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
800 PM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

...EXTREMELY POWERFUL HURRICANE DORIAN REMAINS STATIONARY AND
CONTINUES TO PUMMEL GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 78.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Lantana FL to Altamaha Sound GA

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach FL to south of Lantana FL
* Altamaha Sound GA to South Santee River SC

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas
* Jupiter Inlet FL to Ponte Vedra Beach FL

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach FL to Jupiter Inlet FL
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to South Santee River SC

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach FL to Jupiter Inlet FL

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Golden Beach FL to Deerfield Beach FL
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of the Southeast and
Mid-Atlantic coast of the United States should continue to monitor
the progress of Dorian, as additional watches may be required
tonight and Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 78.4 West. Dorian remains
nearly stationary just north of Grand Bahama Island. A slow
west-northwestward motion is expected to resume overnight and
continue into early Tuesday. A turn toward the northwest is
forecast by late Tuesday, with a northeastward motion forecast to
begin by Wednesday night. On this track, the core of extremely
dangerous Hurricane Dorian will continue to pound Grand Bahama
Island into Tuesday morning. The hurricane will then move
dangerously close to the Florida east coast late Tuesday through
Wednesday evening and then move dangerously close to the Georgia and
South Carolina coasts on Wednesday night and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. This intensity estimate is based on data from the NOAA and
Air Force Hurricane Hunters. Dorian is a category 4 hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Although gradual
weakening is forecast, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful
hurricane during the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km). Sustained winds of 57 mph (93 km/h) with a gust to
68 mph (109 km/h) was recently reported at a NOAA Coastal Marine
observing site at Settlement Point on the west end of Grand Bahama
Island.

The minimum central pressure of 942 mb (27.82 inches) is based on
data provided by the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Devastating hurricane conditions continue on Grand Bahama
Island. Do not venture out into the eye, as winds will suddenly
increase after the eye passes.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area
in Florida by Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the
Hurricane Watch area beginning Wednesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm
warning area through Tuesday, and are possible in the Tropical
Storm watch area by tonight.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 12 to 18 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds on Grand Bahama Island. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Water levels
should very slowly subside on the Abaco Islands during the day.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Lantana FL to South Santee River SC...4 to 7 ft
North of Deerfield Beach FL to Lantana FL...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through late this week:

Northwestern Bahamas...Additional 6 to 12 inches, isolated storm
totals of 30 inches.
Central Bahamas...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals
of 6 inches.
Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula through Georgia...4 to 8
inches, isolated 10 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells are affecting the northwestern Bahamas, the
Florida east coast, and the coast of Georgia. These swells are
expected to spread northward along much of the remainder of the
southeastern United States coast during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible through Tuesday along
the eastern coast of Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto

>

2019-09-02 22:51

WTNT65 KNHC 022249
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
700 PM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS DORIAN REMAINS STATIONARY AND CONTINUES TO
POUND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...

Residents should remain in shelter on Grand Bahama Island as they
are currently experiencing the southern eyewall of Dorian. Residents
in the Abacos should also continue to stay in their shelter until
conditions subside later tonight.

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts to 170 mph
- Storm Surge 12 to 18 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves

These hazards will continue over Grand Bahama Island through
tonight, causing extreme destruction on the island.


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 78.4W
ABOUT 30 MI...55 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Latto/Cangialosi

>

2019-09-02 21:55

WTNT65 KNHC 022153
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
600 PM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS DORIAN CONTINUES TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING
CONDITIONS TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...

Residents should remain in shelter on Grand Bahama Island as they
are currently experiencing the southern eyewall of Dorian. Residents
in the Abacos should also continue to stay in their shelter until
conditions subside later tonight.

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts to 170 mph
- Storm Surge 12 to 18 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves

These hazards will continue over Grand Bahama Island through much
of this evening, causing extreme destruction on the island.

A recent observation from Settlement Point, on the far western tip
of Grand Bahama Island indicated a sustained wind of 54 mph (87
km/h) with a gust to 66 mph (106 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 78.4W
ABOUT 30 MI...55 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2019-09-02 20:47

WTNT45 KNHC 022046
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

Dorian remains an impressive hurricane in satellite imagery.
Recent radar and aircraft observations are again showing signs of
a concentric eyewall structure which might be one of the factors
that has led to a decrease in the peak winds and a small expansion
of the wind field. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
reported peak flight-level winds of 129 kt, SFMR winds of 121
kt, and a central pressure that has risen to 940 mb. Based on these
observations, the initial wind speed has been set at 125 kt. Some
additional decrease in wind speed is likely in the short term due
due to a possible eyewall replacement and upwelling of cooler
waters caused by the very slow motion of the hurricane. Although
some additional slow weakening is forecast while the hurricane moves
northward along the southeastern United States coastline due to
increasing southwesterly shear, Dorian is forecast to remain a
powerful hurricane during that time. The NHC intensity forecast
forecast is a blend of the latest statistical and and consensus
model guidance.

Dorian has become nearly stationary this afternoon with the two most
recent aircraft fixes showing essentially no motion. A slow
westward to west-northwestward motion should resume overnight and
continue into early Tuesday, with the eye and devastating winds only
slowly pulling away from Grand Bahama Island. By Tuesday afternoon,
Dorian should begin its much anticipated northwestward turn as a
weakness becomes more pronounced in the subtropical ridge. Although
the center of Dorian is forecast to move near, but parallel to, the
Florida east coast, only a small deviation of the track toward the
west would bring the core of the hurricane onshore. A broad mid-
latitude trough should help turn Dorian northeastward by Wednesday
night, and the track models show the center coming precariously
close to the southeastern United States coast. The tracks from the
1200 UTC runs of the global models have remained fairly stable,
which has resulted in little overall change to the latest NHC track
forecast.

Users are reminded that the hurricane is not a point, and that
life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds extend far
from the center. Regardless of the exact forecast track, strong
winds and a life-threatening storm surge are likely along a portion
of the U.S east coast from Florida through the Carolinas.

Key Messages:

1. Devastating winds and storm surge will continue to affect Grand
Bahama Island through tonight. Everyone there should remain in
shelter and not venture into the eye.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds
are expected along portions of the Florida east coast and the coasts
of Georgia and South Carolina, regardless of the exact track of
Dorian's center. Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of
the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow
advice given by local emergency officials.

3. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force
winds continues to increase along the coast North Carolina.
Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local
emergency officials.

4. Heavy rains, capable of producing life-threatening flash floods,
are expected over northern portions of the Bahamas and coastal
sections of the southeast and lower mid-Atlantic regions of the
United States through Friday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 26.8N 78.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 27.0N 78.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 27.6N 79.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 28.7N 79.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 30.0N 80.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 32.8N 78.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 36.6N 73.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 43.5N 64.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-02 20:45

WTNT35 KNHC 022043
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

...EYE OF DORIAN MOVING LITTLE WHILE THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO
POUND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 78.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended northward to Altamaha
Sound Georgia.

The Hurricane Warning has been extended northward to Ponte Vedra
Beach Florida.

The Storm Surge Watch and Hurricane Watch have been extended
northward to South Santee River South Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Lantana to Altamaha Sound

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to south of Lantana
* Altamaha Sound to South Santee River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas
* Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach to South Santee River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of the Southeast and
Mid-Atlantic coast of the United States should continue to monitor
the progress of Dorian, as additional watches may be required
tonight and Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 78.4 West. Dorian has become
nearly stationary this afternoon. A slow westward to west-
northwestward motion is expected to resume overnight and continue
into early Tuesday. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by late
Tuesday, with a northeastward motion forecast to begin by Wednesday
night. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane
Dorian will continue to pound Grand Bahama Island into Tuesday
morning. The hurricane will then move dangerously close to the
Florida east coast late Tuesday through Wednesday evening and then
move dangerously close to the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on
Wednesday night and Thursday.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has found that
maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Although gradual weakening is forecast,
Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next
couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km). Sustained winds of 55 mph (89 km/h) with a gust to 69 mph
(111 km/h) was recently reported at a NOAA Coastal Marine observing
site at Settlement Point on the west end of Grand Bahama Island. A
wind gust of 43 mph (69 km/h) was reported at Opa Locka Airport
near Miami earlier this afternoon.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 940 mb (27.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Devastating hurricane conditions continue on Grand Bahama
Island. Do not venture out into the eye, as winds will suddenly
increase after the eye passes.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area
in Florida by Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the
Hurricane Watch area beginning Wednesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm
warning area through Tuesday, and are possible in the Tropical
Storm watch area by tonight.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 12 to 18 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds on Grand Bahama Island. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Water levels
should very slowly subside on the Abaco Islands during the day.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Lantana to South Santee River...4 to 7 ft
North of Deerfield Beach to Lantana...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through late this week:

Northwestern Bahamas...Additional 6 to 12 inches, isolated storm
totals of 30 inches.
Central Bahamas...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals
of 6 inches.
Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula through Georgia...4 to 8
inches, isolated 10 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells are affecting east-facing shores of the Bahamas
and the Florida east coast, and will spread northward along the
southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible through Tuesday along
the eastern coast of Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-02 20:45

WTNT25 KNHC 022043
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
2100 UTC MON SEP 02 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA
SOUND GEORGIA.

THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO PONTE VEDRA
BEACH FLORIDA.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH AND HURRICANE WATCH HAVE BEEN EXTENDED
NORTHWARD TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LANTANA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO SOUTH OF LANTANA
* ALTAMAHA SOUND TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND BAHAMA AND THE ABACOS ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* JUPITER INLET TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER INLET
* NORTH OF PONTE VEDRA BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER INLET

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO DEERFIELD BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN...AS ADDITIONAL
WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 78.4W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT.......130NE 130SE 90SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 90SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 78.4W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 78.4W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 27.0N 78.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 27.6N 79.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 28.7N 79.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 30.0N 80.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 32.8N 78.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 180SE 110SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 36.6N 73.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 43.5N 64.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.8N 78.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 03/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-09-02 19:58

WTNT65 KNHC 021956
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
400 PM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS DORIAN CONTINUES TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING
CONDITIONS TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...

Residents on Grand Bahama Island should not leave their shelter if
the eye passes over, as winds will rapidly increase on the other
side of the eye. Residents in the Abacos should continue to stay in
their shelter until conditions subside later today.

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts to 180 mph
- Storm Surge 12 to 18 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves

These hazards will continue over Grand Bahama Island during most of
the day, causing extreme destruction on the island.


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 78.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-09-02 18:57

WTNT65 KNHC 021855
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
300 PM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

...DESTRUCTIVE EYEWALL OF DORIAN CONTINUES TO LASH GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...

This is a life-threatening situation. Residents on Grand Bahama
Island should not leave their shelter when the eye passes over, as
winds will rapidly increase on the other side of the eye. Residents
in the Abacos should continue to stay in their shelter until
conditions subside later today.

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts to 190 mph
- Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves

These hazards will continue over Grand Bahama Island during most of
the day, causing extreme destruction on the island.


SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 78.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-09-02 17:55

WTNT35 KNHC 021753
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 37A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND CATASTROPHIC WINDS CONTINUE
OVER GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 78.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Lantana to the Flagler/Volusia County Line

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to south of Lantana
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to the Savannah River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas
* Jupiter Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia County Line

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to the Altamaha Sound Georgia

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along southeast coast of the United States
should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional
watches may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 78.4 West. Dorian is moving very
slowly toward the west-northwest near 1 mph (2 km/h). A slow
westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast during the next
day or so, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest and
north. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane
Dorian will continue to pound Grand Bahama Island through much of
today and tonight. The hurricane will then move dangerously close
to the Florida east coast late tonight through Wednesday evening and
then move dangerously close to the Georgia and South Carolina coasts
on Wednesday night and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Although gradual weakening is
forecast, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during
the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km). Sustained winds of 56 mph (91 km/h) with a gust to
69 mph (111 km/h) was recently reported at a NOAA Coastal Marine
observing site at Settlement Point on the west end of Grand Bahama
Island. A wind gust to 48 mph (78 km/h) was recently report at
Juno Beach Pier, Florida.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 938 mb (27.70 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Catastrophic hurricane conditions continue on Grand Bahama
Island. Do not venture out into the eye, as winds will suddenly
increase after the eye passes.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area
in Florida by late tonight or Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are
possible in the Hurricane Watch area on Wednesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm
warning area today and Tuesday, and are possible in the Tropical
Storm watch area by tonight.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds on Grand Bahama Island. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Water levels
should very slowly subside on the Abaco Islands during the day.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Lantana to the Savannah River...4 to 7 ft
North of Deerfield Beach to Lantana...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of
Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through late this week:

Northwestern Bahamas...12 to 24 inches, isolated 30 inches.
Central Bahamas...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals
of 6 inches.
Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula through Georgia...4 to 8
inches, isolated 10 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells are affecting east-facing shores of the Bahamas
and the Florida east coast, and will spread northward along the
southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible this afternoon into
tonight along the immediate coast of east-central Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-02 16:59

WTNT65 KNHC 021657
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
100 PM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

...EYE OF DORIAN WOBBLING NEAR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...

This is a life-threatening situation. Residents on Grand Bahama
Island should not leave their shelter when the eye passes over, as
winds will rapidly increase on the other side of the eye. Residents
in the Abacos should continue to stay in their shelter until
conditions subside later today.

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts to 190 mph
- Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves

These hazards will continue over Grand Bahama Island during most of
the day, causing extreme destruction on the island.


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 78.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...922 MB...27.23 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-02 16:02

WTNT65 KNHC 021600
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1200 PM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

...DORIAN STILL BATTERING GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...

This is a life-threatening situation. Residents on Grand Bahama
Island should not leave their shelter when the eye passes over, as
winds will rapidly increase on the other side of the eye. Residents
in the Abacos should continue to stay in their shelter until
conditions subside later today.

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts to 190 mph
- Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves

These hazards will continue over Grand Bahama Island during most of
the day, causing extreme destruction on the island.


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 78.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...922 MB...27.23 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-02 15:26

WTNT45 KNHC 021524 CCA
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 37...Correction
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

Corrected missing word in last sentence

Satellite and radar imagery show that Dorian is moving very slowly
over Grand Bahama Island this morning. The hurricane remains quite
symmetric and still exhibits a very well-defined eye, but there is
somewhat less evidence of concentric eyewalls in Bahamas radar
imagery. Satellite intensity estimates from UW/CIMSS, SAB, and
TAFB are slightly lower this morning, and the initial intensity has
been reduced to 135 kt. As Dorian moves very slowly during the
next 24 hours, some upwelling in the deeper waters around the
Bahamas could cause some gradual weakening. After that time, the
hurricane is expected to experience a gradual increase in
southwesterly shear, which should lead to a slow decrease in wind
speed. However, Dorian is forecast to remain a very powerful
hurricane while it moves near the southeastern United States coast.
The NHC intensity forecast is close to the statistical guidance
during the first day or so, then near the HFIP corrected consensus
model later in the period.

As anticipated, the ridge to the north of the storm has weakened
and the eye of Dorian has only been inching westward this morning.
The hurricane is expected to drift westward or west-northwestward
over the next 24 hours, which will cause a prolonged period of
devastating winds and storm surge over Grand Bahama Island. By late
Tuesday, the weakness in the ridge becomes more pronounced and
Dorian should turn northwestward near the east coast of the Florida.
By day 3, the hurricane is expected to make a northeastward turn
ahead of a broad mid-latitude trough. The overall track envelope
has not changed much, and little adjustment to the previous NHC
forecast was required.

It cannot be stressed enough that only a small deviation to the
left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of the extremely
dangerous hurricane onshore of the Florida east coast within the
hurricane warning area. In addition, Dorian's wind field is
predicted to expand, which would bring hurricane-force winds closer
to the east coast of Florida even if the track does not change.

Key Messages:

1. A prolonged period of catastrophic winds and storm surge will
continue to affect Grand Bahama Island through today and tonight.
Everyone there should remain in shelter and not venture into the
eye.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds
are expected along portions of the Florida east coast and Georgia
coast, regardless of the exact track of Dorian's center. Water
levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong
winds. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local
emergency officials.

3. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force
winds continues to increase along the coasts of South Carolina and
North Carolina. Residents in these areas should follow advice given
by local emergency officials.

4. Heavy rains, capable of producing life-threatening flash floods,
are expected over northern portions of the Bahamas and coastal
sections of the Southeast and lower Mid-Atlantic regions of the
United States into Friday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 26.8N 78.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 26.9N 78.7W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 27.2N 79.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 28.1N 79.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 29.3N 80.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 32.0N 79.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 35.4N 75.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 40.7N 66.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-02 14:53

WTNT45 KNHC 021451
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

Satellite and radar imagery show that Dorian is moving very slowly
over Grand Bahama Island this morning. The hurricane remains quite
symmetric and still exhibits a very well-defined eye, but there is
somewhat less evidence of concentric eyewalls in Bahamas radar
imagery. Satellite intensity estimates from UW/CIMSS, SAB, and
TAFB are slightly lower this morning, and the initial intensity has
been reduced to 135 kt. As Dorian moves very slowly during the
next 24 hours, some upwelling in the deeper waters around the
Bahamas could cause some gradual weakening. After that time, the
hurricane is expected to experience a gradual increase in
southwesterly shear, which should lead to a slow decrease in wind
speed. However, Dorian is forecast to remain a very powerful
hurricane while it moves near the southeastern United States coast.
The NHC intensity forecast is close to the statistical guidance
during the first day or so, then near the HFIP corrected consensus
model later in the period.

As anticipated, the ridge to the north of the storm has weakened
and the eye of Dorian has only been inching westward this morning.
The hurricane is expected to drift westward or west-northwestward
over the next 24 hours, which will cause a prolonged period of
devastating winds and storm surge over Grand Bahama Island. By late
Tuesday, the weakness in the ridge becomes more pronounced and
Dorian should turn northwestward near the east coast of the Florida.
By day 3, the hurricane is expected to make a northeastward turn
ahead of a broad mid-latitude trough. The overall track envelope
has not changed much, and little adjustment to the previous NHC
forecast was required.

It cannot be stressed enough that only a small deviation to the
left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of the extremely
dangerous hurricane onshore of the Florida east coast within the
hurricane warning area. In addition, Dorian's wind field is
predicted to expand, which would bring hurricane-force winds closer
to the east coast of Florida even if the track does change.

Key Messages:

1. A prolonged period of catastrophic winds and storm surge will
continue to affect Grand Bahama Island through today and tonight.
Everyone there should remain in shelter and not venture into the
eye.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds
are expected along portions of the Florida east coast and Georgia
coast, regardless of the exact track of Dorian's center. Water
levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong
winds. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local
emergency officials.

3. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force
winds continues to increase along the coasts of South Carolina and
North Carolina. Residents in these areas should follow advice given
by local emergency officials.

4. Heavy rains, capable of producing life-threatening flash floods,
are expected over northern portions of the Bahamas and coastal
sections of the Southeast and lower Mid-Atlantic regions of the
United States into Friday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 26.8N 78.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 26.9N 78.7W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 27.2N 79.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 28.1N 79.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 29.3N 80.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 32.0N 79.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 35.4N 75.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 40.7N 66.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-02 14:52

WTNT35 KNHC 021450
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE CATASTROPHIC WINDS
AND STORM SURGE AS DORIAN INCHES WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 78.3W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...922 MB...27.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended northward along the
east coast of Florida to the Flagler/Volusia County Line.

The Storm Surge Watch has been extended northward along the Georgia
coast to the Savannah River.

The Hurricane Warning along the east coast of Florida has been
extended northward to the Flagler/Volusia County Line.

The Hurricane Watch has been extended northward to Altamaha Sound
Georgia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Lantana to the Flagler/Volusia County Line

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to south of Lantana
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to the Savannah River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas
* Jupiter Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia County Line

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to the Altamaha Sound Georgia

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along southeast coast of the United States
should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional
watches may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was
located near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 78.3 West. Dorian is
moving very slowly toward the west near 1 mph (2 km/h). A slow
westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast during the next
day or so, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest and
north. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane
Dorian will continue to pound Grand Bahama Island through much of
today and tonight. The hurricane will then move dangerously close
to the Florida east coast late tonight through Wednesday evening and
then move dangerously close to the Georgia and South Carolina coasts
on Wednesday night and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Although gradual weakening is
forecast, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during
the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 922 mb (27.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Catastrophic hurricane conditions continue on Grand Bahama
Island. Do not venture out into the eye, as winds will suddenly
increase after the eye passes.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area
in Florida by late tonight or Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are
possible in the Hurricane Watch area on Wednesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm
warning area today and Tuesday, and are possible in the Tropical
Storm watch area by tonight.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds on Grand Bahama Island. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Water levels
should very slowly subside on the Abaco Islands during the day.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Lantana to the Savannah River...4 to 7 ft
North of Deerfield Beach to Lantana...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of
Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through late this week:

Northwestern Bahamas...12 to 24 inches, isolated 30 inches.
Central Bahamas...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals
of 6 inches.
Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula through Georgia...4 to 8
inches, isolated 10 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells are affecting east-facing shores of the Bahamas
and the Florida east coast, and will spread northward along the
southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible this afternoon into
tonight along the immediate coast of east-central Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-02 14:51

WTNT25 KNHC 021449
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
1500 UTC MON SEP 02 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE GEORGIA
COAST TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER.

THE HURRICANE WARNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN
EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE.

THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND
GEORGIA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LANTANA TO THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO SOUTH OF LANTANA
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND BAHAMA AND THE ABACOS ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* JUPITER INLET TO THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER INLET
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO THE ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER INLET

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO DEERFIELD BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN...AS ADDITIONAL
WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 78.3W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 1 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 922 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 90SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 78.3W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 78.2W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 26.9N 78.7W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 27.2N 79.1W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 28.1N 79.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 29.3N 80.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 35SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 32.0N 79.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 35.4N 75.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 40.7N 66.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.8N 78.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 02/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-09-02 13:58

WTNT65 KNHC 021356
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1000 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

...DORIAN SITTING OVER GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND WITH EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
WINDS AND SURGE...

This is a life-threatening situation. Residents on Grand Bahama
Island should not leave their shelter when the eye passes over, as
winds will rapidly increase on the other side of the eye. Residents
in the Abacos should continue to stay in their shelter until
conditions subside later today.

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts to 200 mph
- Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves

These hazards will continue over Grand Bahama Island during most of
the day, causing extreme destruction on the island.


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 78.3W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM ENE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...919 MB...27.14 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-09-02 12:57

WTNT65 KNHC 021255
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
900 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

...DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS LASHING GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...

This is a life-threatening situation. Residents on Grand Bahama
Island should not leave their shelter when the eye passes over, as
winds will rapidly increase on the other side of the eye. Residents
in the Abacos should continue to stay in their shelter until
conditions subside later today.

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts to 200 mph
- Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves

These hazards will continue over Grand Bahama Island during most of
the day, causing extreme destruction on the island.


SUMMARY OF 900 AM EDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 78.3W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM ENE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...916 MB...27.05 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-09-02 12:26

WTNT35 KNHC 021224 CCA
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 36A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 022019

Corrected rainfall statement

...EYE OF CATEGORY 5 DORIAN MOVING LITTLE WHILE OVER GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 78.2W
ABOUT 35 MI...50 KM ENE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...916 MB...27.05 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Lantana to the Volusia/Brevard County Line

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to south of Lantana
* Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas
* Jupiter Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County Line

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet
* Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along southeast coast of the United States
should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional
watches may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located by
NOAA Doppler radar near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 78.2 West.
Dorian is moving toward the west near 1 mph (2 km/h). A slow
westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast during the next
day or so, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest and
north. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane
Dorian will continue to pound Grand Bahama Island through much of
today and tonight. The hurricane will move dangerously close to the
Florida east coast tonight through Wednesday evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 165 mph (270 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Although gradual weakening is forecast,
Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next
couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 916 mb (27.05 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Catastrophic hurricane conditions continue on Grand Bahama
Island. Do not venture out into the eye, as winds will suddenly
increase after the eye passes.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area
in Florida by late tonight or Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are
possible in the Hurricane Watch area on Wednesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm
warning area today and Tuesday, and are possible in the Tropical
Storm watch area by tonight.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds on Grand Bahama Island. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Water levels
should very slowly subside on the Abaco Islands during the day.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Lantana to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River...4 to 7 ft
North of Deerfield Beach to Lantana...2 to 4 ft

The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of
Dorian comes to the Florida east coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through late this week:

Northwestern Bahamas...12 to 24 inches, isolated 30 inches.
Central Bahamas...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals
of 6 inches.
Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula through Georgia...4 to 8
inches, isolated 10 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells are affecting east-facing shores of the Bahamas
and the Florida east coast, and will spread northward along the
southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible this afternoon into
tonight along the immediate coast of east-central Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Brennan

>

2019-09-02 11:54

WTNT35 KNHC 021152
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 36A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

...EYE OF CATEGORY 5 DORIAN MOVING LITTLE WHILE OVER GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 78.2W
ABOUT 35 MI...50 KM ENE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...916 MB...27.05 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Lantana to the Volusia/Brevard County Line

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to south of Lantana
* Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas
* Jupiter Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County Line

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet
* Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along southeast coast of the United States
should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional
watches may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located
by NOAA Doppler radar near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 78.2 West.
Dorian is moving toward the west near 1 mph (2 km/h). A slow
westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast during the next
day or so, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest and
north. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane
Dorian will continue to pound Grand Bahama Island through much of
today and tonight. The hurricane will move dangerously close to the
Florida east coast tonight through Wednesday evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 165 mph (270 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Although gradual weakening is forecast,
Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next
couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to
140 miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 916 mb (27.05 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Catastrophic hurricane conditions continue on Grand Bahama
Island. Do not venture out into the eye, as winds will suddenly
increase after the eye passes.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area
in Florida by late tonight or Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are
possible in the Hurricane Watch area on Wednesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm
warning area today and Tuesday, and are possible in the Tropical
Storm watch area by tonight.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds on Grand Bahama Island. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Water levels
should very slowly subside on the Abaco Islands during the day.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Lantana to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River...4 to 7 ft
North of Deerfield Beach to Lantana...2 to 4 ft

The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of
Dorian comes to the Florida east coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through late this week:

Northwestern Bahamas...12 to 24 inches, isolated 30 inches.
Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Central Bahamas and the Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula
through Georgia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells are affecting east-facing shores of the Bahamas
and the Florida east coast, and will spread northward along the
southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible this afternoon into
tonight along the immediate coast of east-central Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-02 10:57

WTNT65 KNHC 021055
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
700 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

...EYE OF DORIAN DRIFTING WESTWARD...
...DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS BATTERING GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...

This is a life-threatening situation. Residents on Grand Bahama
Island should not leave their shelter when the eye passes over, as
winds will rapidly increase on the other side of the eye. Residents
in the Abacos should continue to stay in their shelter until
conditions subside later today.

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts to 200 mph
- Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves

These hazards will continue over Grand Bahama Island during most of
the day, causing extreme destruction on the island.


SUMMARY OF 700 AM EDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 78.2W
ABOUT 35 MI...50 KM ENE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...916 MB...27.05 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-02 09:57

WTNT65 KNHC 020955
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
600 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

...EYE OF DORIAN WOBBLING OVER GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...

This is a life-threatening situation. Residents on Grand Bahama
Island should not leave their shelter when the eye passes over, as
winds will rapidly increase on the other side of the eye. Residents
in the Abacos should continue to stay in their shelter until
conditions subside later today.

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts to 200 mph
- Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves

These hazards will continue over Grand Bahama Island during most of
the day, causing extreme destruction on the island.


SUMMARY OF 600 AM EDT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 78.2W
ABOUT 35 MI...50 KM ENE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...916 MB...27.05 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-02 08:54

WTNT45 KNHC 020852
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

Satellite imagery continues to show that Dorian has an extremely
well-defined eye embedded within very cold cloud tops. The
diameter of the eye appears to have expanded to near 20 n mi, and
radar data, especially from the Bahamas Department of Meteorology
radar, show that there are concentric eyewalls. The hurricane also
continues to exhibit strong upper-tropospheric outflow. The initial
intensity estimate has been reduced to 145 kt, which lies between
earlier Hurricane Hunter estimates and satellite intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB. This lowering of intensity is consistent with
the development of a concentric eyewall. During the next few days,
Dorian should be encountering some increase in shear, which will
likely result in weakening. However it is anticipated that the
system will remain a dangerous major hurricane for the next several
days. The official intensity forecast lies between the
statistical-dynamical guidance and the corrected multi-model
consensus.

Steering currents have weakened, and Dorian has almost come to a
standstill over eastern Grand Bahama Island, with an initial motion
of 270/1 kt. The mid-tropospheric high to the north of the
hurricane that had been steering Dorian westward has collapsed.
Global models indicate that, in a couple of days, a weakness in the
ridge will develop along 75W-80W. This would likely cause Dorian to
move northwestward to northward toward and through this weakness.
Later in the forecast period, the system is expected to accelerate
northeastward on the southern side of a broad mid-tropospheric
trough. The official track forecast is very close to the previous
one and to the corrected dynamical model consensus, HCCA. Although
the official forecast does not show Dorian making landfall along the
Florida east coast, it is still possible for the hurricane to
deviate from this forecast, and move very near or over the coast.
Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track.


Key Messages:

1. A prolonged period of catastrophic winds and storm surge will
continue to affect Grand Bahama Island through today and tonight.
Everyone there should remain in shelter and not venture into the
eye.

2. Life-threatening storm surges and dangerous hurricane-force winds
are expected along portions of the Florida east coast through
mid-week, and storm surge and hurricane warnings are in effect. Only
a slight deviation to the left of the official forecast would bring
the core of Dorian near or over the Florida east coast. Residents
should listen to advice given by local emergency officials.

3. There is an increasing likelihood of strong winds and dangerous
storm surge along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North
Carolina later this week. Residents in these areas should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian and listen to advice given by
local emergency officials.

4. Heavy rains, capable of producing life-threatening flash floods,
are expected over northern portions of the Bahamas and coastal
sections of the Southeast and lower Mid-Atlantic regions of the
United States into Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 26.6N 78.2W 145 KT 165 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 26.7N 78.7W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 26.9N 79.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 27.6N 79.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 28.7N 80.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 31.3N 79.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 34.5N 76.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 38.5N 70.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2019-09-02 08:53

WTNT35 KNHC 020850
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

...CATEGORY 5 DORIAN CONTINUES TO HAVE DEVASTATING IMPACTS ON GRAND
BAHAMA ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 78.2W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...916 MB...27.05 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Hurricane
Warning for New Providence and Eleuthera, and the Hurricane Watch
for Andros Island, in the northwestern Bahamas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Lantana to the Volusia/Brevard County Line

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to south of Lantana
* Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas
* Jupiter Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County Line

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet
* Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional watches or
warnings may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was
located by NOAA Doppler radar near latitude 26.6 North, longitude
78.2 West. Dorian is moving toward the west near 1 mph (2 km/h). A
slow westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast during the
next day or so, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest and
north. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane
Dorian will continue to pound Grand Bahama Island through much of
today and tonight. The hurricane will move dangerously close to the
Florida east coast tonight through Wednesday evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 165 mph (270 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Although gradual weakening is forecast,
Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next
couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 916 mb (27.05 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Catastrophic hurricane conditions continue on Grand Bahama
Island. Do not venture out into the eye, as winds will suddenly
increase after the eye passes.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area
in Florida by late tonight or Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are
possible in the Hurricane Watch area on Wednesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm
warning area today and Tuesday, and are possible in the Tropical
Storm watch area by tonight.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds on Grand Bahama Island. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Water levels
should very slowly subside on the Abaco Islands during the day.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Lantana to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River...4 to 7 ft
North of Deerfield Beach to Lantana...2 to 4 ft

The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of
Dorian comes to the Florida east coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through late this week:

Northwestern Bahamas...12 to 24 inches, isolated 30 inches.
Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Central Bahamas and the Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula
through Georgia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells are affecting east-facing shores of the Bahamas
and the Florida east coast, and will spread northward along the
southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A brief tornado is possible this afternoon into tonight
along the immediate coast of east-central Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2019-09-02 08:52

WTNT25 KNHC 020850
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
0900 UTC MON SEP 02 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE
WARNING FOR NEW PROVIDENCE AND ELEUTHERA...AND THE HURRICANE WATCH
FOR ANDROS ISLAND...IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LANTANA TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO SOUTH OF LANTANA
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO THE MOUTH OF THE ST. MARY'S RIVER

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND BAHAMA AND ABACOS ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.
* JUPITER INLET TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER INLET
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO THE MOUTH OF THE ST. MARY'S RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER INLET

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO DEERFIELD BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN...AS ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 78.2W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 1 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 916 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 145 KT WITH GUSTS TO 175 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 90SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 78.2W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 78.1W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 26.7N 78.7W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 26.9N 79.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 27.6N 79.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 28.7N 80.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 31.3N 79.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 34.5N 76.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 38.5N 70.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.6N 78.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 02/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2019-09-02 07:57

WTNT65 KNHC 020755
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
400 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

...DORIAN DRIFTING WESTWARD...
...PARTS OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND BEING LASHED INCESSANTLY WITH
DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS...

This is a life-threatening situation. Residents on Grand Bahama
Island should not leave their shelter when the eye passes over, as
winds will rapidly increase on the other side of the eye. Residents
in the Abacos should continue to stay in their shelter until
conditions subside later today.

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts to 200 mph
- Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves

These hazards will continue over Grand Bahama Island during most of
the day, causing extreme destruction on the island.


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EDT...0800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 78.1W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...916 MB...27.05 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-02 06:59

WTNT65 KNHC 020656
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
300 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

...DORIAN'S EYE CRAWLING WESTWARD OVER GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...

This is a life-threatening situation. Residents on Grand Bahama
Island should not leave their shelter when the eye passes over, as
winds will rapidly increase on the other side of the eye. Residents
in the Abacos should continue to stay in their shelter until
conditions subside later today.

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts to 200 mph
- Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves

These hazards will continue over Grand Bahama Island during most of
the day, causing extreme destruction on the island.


SUMMARY OF 300 AM EDT...0700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 78.1W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...170 MPH...275 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...916 MB...27.05 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-02 05:55

WTNT35 KNHC 020552
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 35A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
200 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

...CATEGORY 5 DORIAN CONTINUES TO BATTER GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 78.1W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...916 MB...27.05 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Lantana to the Volusia/Brevard County Line

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to south of Lantana
* Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island
* Jupiter Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County Line

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island
* North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet
* Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional watches or
warnings may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
by an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA
Doppler radar near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 78.1 West. Dorian
is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slower westward to
west-northwestward motion is forecast during the next day or so,
followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest and north. On this
track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will
continue to pound Grand Bahama Island through much of today and
tonight. The hurricane will move dangerously close to the Florida
east coast tonight through Wednesday evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast, but fluctuations
in intensity could occur during the next couple of days.
Regardless, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during
the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter
observations is 916 mb (27.05 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Catastrophic hurricane conditions continue on Grand Bahama
Island. Do not venture out into the eye, as winds will suddenly
increase after the eye passes.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area
in Florida by late tonight or Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm
warning area today and Tuesday, and are possible in the Tropical
Storm watch area by tonight.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds on Grand Bahama Island. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Water levels
should very slowly subside on the Abaco Islands during the day.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Lantana to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River...4 to 7 ft
North of Deerfield Beach to Lantana...2 to 4 ft

The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of
Dorian comes to the Florida east coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through late this week:

Northwestern Bahamas...12 to 24 inches, isolated 30 inches.
Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
The Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula through Georgia...3 to
6 inches, isolated 9 inches.
Southeastern Virginia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells are affecting east-facing shores of the Bahamas
and the Florida east coast, and will spread northward along the
southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2019-09-02 05:01

WTNT65 KNHC 020459
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
100 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE FLOODING LIKELY OCCURRING ON GRAND
BAHAMA ISLAND...

This is a life-threatening situation. Residents on Grand Bahama
Island should not leave their shelter when the eye passes over, as
winds will rapidly increase on the other side of the eye. Residents
in the Abacos should continue to stay in their shelter until
conditions subside later today.

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts over 200 mph
- Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves

These hazards will cause extreme destruction in the affected areas
and will continue for several hours.


SUMMARY OF 100 AM EDT...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 78.0W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...914 MB...26.99 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-02 03:58

WTNT65 KNHC 020356
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1200 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

...DESTRUCTIVE WINDS FROM DORIAN SPREADING WESTWARD ACROSS GRAND
BAHAMA ISLAND...

This is a life-threatening situation. Residents in the Abacos
should continue to stay in their shelter until conditions subside
later today. Residents on Grand Bahama Island should not leave
their shelter when the eye passes over, as winds will rapidly
increase on the other side of the eye.

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts over 200 mph
- Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves

These hazards will cause extreme destruction in the affected areas
and will continue for several hours.


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM EDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 78.0W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...914 MB...26.99 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-02 03:01

WTNT45 KNHC 020259
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

Dorian remains an incredibly powerful hurricane and it is currently
making landfall on the eastern end of Grand Bahama Island.
Satellite images show an symmetrical cyclone with a circular 10 n mi
diameter eye and intense eyewall convection with lots of lightning
being detected. Doppler radar data from Miami and the Bahamas show
that Dorian has developed concentric eyewalls, and this feature is
also noted by a double wind maximum that is evident in data from the
Air Force Hurricane Hunters. The initial intensity of Dorian is set
at 155 kt based mostly on the SFMR winds from the aircraft. The
aircraft data also indicated that the radii of tropical-storm-force
winds are a little larger than they were earlier today.

Dorian is still moving slowly westward at about 5 kt. The ridge to
the north of Dorian is gradually weakening and shifting eastward in
response to a mid- to upper-level trough that is moving across the
eastern U.S. This change in the steering pattern should cause
Dorian to slow down even more and perhaps stall, before it turns to
the northwest late Monday or early Tuesday. This expected slow
motion will likely be devastating to the Great Abaco and Grand
Bahama Islands since it would prolong the catastrophic winds, storm
surge, and rainfall over those areas. The timing of the northwest
or north turn is very critical in determining how close Dorian will
get to the Florida peninsula on Tuesday and Wednesday. In general,
the track models have changed little from the previous cycle, and
the NHC forecast continues to show the core of Dorian very near, but
offshore, of the Florida peninsula on Tuesday and Wednesday. The
hurricane is then expected to track near the Georgia and Carolina
coasts late this week. This forecast is in best agreement with the
various consensus models, which typically have the lowest errors. It
is once again emphasized that although the official track forecast
does not show landfall, users should not focus on the exact track.
A small deviation to the left of the track could bring the intense
core of the hurricane and its dangerous winds closer to or onto the
Florida coast.

Category 5 hurricanes like Dorian usually don't hold that intensity
for very long, and it is expected that Dorian will weaken slowly
during the next few days. However, the observed eyewall replacement
cycle will likely cause fluctuations in strength, both up and down,
while the system is near Florida. The models show an increase in
shear when Dorian tracks near Georgia and the Carolinas, which
should cause more notable weakening. This forecast is near the
high end of the latest model guidance.

Based on this forecast, the hurricane watch has been extended
northward to the Florida-Georgia line.


Key Messages:

1. A prolonged period of catastrophic winds and storm surge will
affect the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island for several more
hours. Everyone there should take immediate shelter and not venture
into the eye.

2. Life-threatening storm surges and dangerous hurricane-force winds
are expected along portions of the Florida east coast through
mid-week, and storm surge and hurricane warnings are in effect. Only
a slight deviation to the left of the official forecast would bring
the core of Dorian near or over the Florida east coast. Residents
should listen to advice given by local emergency officials.

3. There is an increasing likelihood of strong winds and dangerous
storm surge along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North
Carolina later this week. Residents in these areas should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian and listen to advice given by
local emergency officials.

4. Heavy rains, capable of producing life-threatening flash floods,
are expected over northern portions of the Bahamas and coastal
sections of the southeast and lower mid-Atlantic regions of the
United States through late this week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 26.6N 77.9W 155 KT 180 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 26.8N 78.5W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 26.9N 79.0W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 27.3N 79.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 28.2N 79.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 30.6N 80.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 33.5N 77.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 37.5N 71.8W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-09-02 02:59

WTNT35 KNHC 020257
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

...CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 DORIAN MAKES LANDFALL ON THE
EASTERN END OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 77.9W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...914 MB...26.99 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been extended northward from
the Flagler/Volusia County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary's
River.

A Storm Surge Watch has also been extended northward from the
Flagler/Volusia County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Lantana to the Volusia/Brevard County Line

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Lantana
* Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island
* Jupiter Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County Line

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island
* North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet
* Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional watches or
warnings may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was
located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 77.9 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slower westward to
west-northwestward motion is forecast during the next day or so,
followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest. On this track, the
core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will continue to pound
Great Abaco and Grand Bahama islands overnight and through much of
Monday. The hurricane will move dangerously close to the Florida
east coast late Monday through Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 180 mph (285 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast, but fluctuations
in intensity could occur couple of days. Regardless, Dorian is
expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next few
days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 914 mb (26.99 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Catastrophic hurricane conditions continue in the Abacos
and Grand Bahama Islands. Do not venture out into the eye, as winds
will suddenly increase as the eye passes.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area
in Florida by late Monday or Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area on Monday and Tuesday and are possible in the tropical
storm watch area by Monday night.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Lantana to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River...4 to 7 ft
North of Deerfield Beach to Lantana FL...2 to 4 ft

The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of
Dorian comes to the Florida east coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through late this week:

Northwestern Bahamas...12 to 24 inches, isolated 30 inches.
Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
The Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula through Georgia...3 to
6 inches, isolated 9 inches.
Southeastern Virginia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells are affecting east-facing shores of the Bahamas
and the Florida east coast, and will spread northward along the
southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-09-02 02:58

WTNT25 KNHC 020256
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
0300 UTC MON SEP 02 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD FROM FLAGLER/VOLUSIA
COUNTY LINE TO THE MOUTH OF THE ST. MARY'S RIVER.

A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD FROM
FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO THE MOUTH OF THE ST. MARY'S RIVER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LANTANA TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO LANTANA
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO THE MOUTH OF THE ST. MARY'S RIVER

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND
* JUPITER INLET TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANDROS ISLAND
* NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER INLET
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO THE MOUTH OF THE ST. MARY'S RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER INLET

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO DEERFIELD BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN...AS ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 77.9W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 914 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 155 KT WITH GUSTS TO 190 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 60SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 77.9W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 77.7W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 26.8N 78.5W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 26.9N 79.0W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 27.3N 79.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 28.2N 79.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 30.6N 80.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 33.5N 77.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 37.5N 71.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.6N 77.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 02/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2019-09-02 01:55

WTNT65 KNHC 020152
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1000 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

...CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 DORIAN BEGINNING TO CROSS EASTERN
GRAND BAHAMA...

This is a life-threatening situation. Residents in the Abacos
should continue to stay in their shelter as the northern eyewall of
Dorian remains over the northern portion of the island. Residents in
eastern Grand Bahama are experiencing the western portion of
the eyewall. Do not leave your shelter as the eye passes over,
as winds will rapidly increase on the other side of the eye.
Conditions will continue to deteriorate over the remainder of Grand
Bahama Island tonight.

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts over 220 mph
- Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves

These hazards will cause extreme destruction in the affected areas
and will continue for several hours.


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 77.8W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...915 MB...27.02 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2019-09-02 00:56

WTNT65 KNHC 020053
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
900 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

...CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 DORIAN CONTINUES TO BATTER THE ABACOS...
...EYE NEARING EASTERN END OF GRAND BAHAMA...

This is a life-threatening situation. Residents in the Abacos
should continue to stay in their shelter as the northern eyewall of
Dorian remains over the area. Residents in eastern Grand Bahama are
experiencing the western eyewall. Do not leave your shelter as the
eye passes over, as winds will rapidly increase on the other side
of the eye.

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts over 220 mph
- Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves

These hazards will cause extreme destruction in the affected areas
and will continue for several hours.


SUMMARY OF 900 PM EDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 77.7W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...915 MB...27.02 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2019-09-01 23:48

WTNT35 KNHC 012346
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 34A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
800 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

...CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 DORIAN POUNDING GREAT ABACO AND GRAND
BAHAMA ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 77.6W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...915 MB...27.02 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Lantana to the Volusia/Brevard County Line

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Lantana
* Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island
* Jupiter Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County Line

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island
* North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet
* Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional watches or
warnings may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Dorian was
located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 77.6 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slower westward to
west-northwestward motion is forecast during the next day or
two, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest. On this
track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will
continue to pound Great Abaco and Grand Bahama islands tonight and
Monday. The hurricane will move dangerously close to the Florida
east coast late Monday through Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 185 mph (295 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely,
and Dorian is expected to remain a catastrophic hurricane during the
next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The minimum central pressure recently measured by an Air Force
reconnaissance plane was 915 mb (27.02 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Catastrophic hurricane conditions continue in the Abacos
Islands and are beginning to spread across Grand Bahama Island. Do
not venture out into the eye, as winds will suddenly increase as the
eye passes.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area
in Florida by late Monday or Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area on Monday and Tuesday and are possible in the tropical
storm watch area by Monday night.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Flagler/Volusia County Line to Lantana FL...4 to 7 ft
North of Deerfield Beach to Lantana FL...2 to 4 ft

The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of
Dorian comes to the Florida east coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through late this week:

Northwestern Bahamas...12 to 24 inches, isolated 30 inches.
Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
The Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula through Georgia...3 to
6 inches, isolated 9 inches.
Southeastern Virginia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells are affecting east-facing shores of the Bahamas
and the Florida east coast, and will spread northward along the
southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-09-01 22:56

WTNT65 KNHC 012254
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
700 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

...CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 DORIAN CONTINUES TO BATTER THE ABACOS...
...APPROACHING EASTERN END OF GRAND BAHAMA...

This is a life-threatening situation. Residents in the Abacos
should continue to stay in their shelter as the eastern eyewall of
Dorian remains over the area. Residents in eastern Grand Bahama will
begin to experience the western eyewall soon.

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts over 220 mph
- Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves

These hazards will cause extreme destruction in the affected areas
and will continue for several hours.


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 77.6W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...910 MB...26.88 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2019-09-01 21:56

WTNT65 KNHC 012153
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
600 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

...CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 DORIAN CONTINUES TO BATTER THE ABACOS...

This is a life-threatening situation. Residents in the Abacos
should continue to stay in their shelter as the eastern eyewall of
Dorian is over the area.

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts over 220 mph
- Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves

These hazards will cause extreme destruction in the affected areas
and will continue for several hours.


SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 77.5W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...910 MB...26.88 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2019-09-01 21:26

WTNT35 KNHC 012123
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 34...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

Corrected to modify Storm Surge section

...EYE OF CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE DORIAN CRAWLING OVER THE ABACOS
ISLANDS IN THE BAHAMAS...
...DORIAN'S FURY NOW AIMING TOWARD GRAND BAHAMA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 77.3W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...910 MB...26.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Lantana to the
Volusia/Brevard County Line.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from the Volusia/Brevard County
Line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued from Jupiter Inlet to the
Volusia/Brevard County Line.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued from the Volusia/Brevard County
Line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Lantana to the Volusia/Brevard County Line

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Lantana
* Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island
* Jupiter Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County Line

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island
* North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet
* Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional watches or
warnings may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Dorian was
located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 77.3 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slower westward
to west-northwestward motions should continue for the next day or
two, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest. On this
track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will
continue to pound Great Abaco this evening and move near or
over Grand Bahama Island tonight and Monday. The hurricane will
move dangerously close to the Florida east coast late Monday through
Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 185 mph (295 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely,
and Dorian is expected to remain a catastrophic hurricane during the
next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The last minimum central pressure measured by an Air Force
reconnaissance plane a couple of hours ago was 910 mb (26.88
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Catastrophic hurricane conditions are occurring in the Abacos
Islands and will spread across Grand Bahama Island tonight. Do not
venture out into the eye, as winds will suddenly increase as the eye
passes.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area
in Florida by late Monday or Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area on Monday and Tuesday and are possible in the tropical
storm watch area by Monday night.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Flagler/Volusia County Line to Lantana FL...4 to 7 ft
North of Deerfield Beach to Lantana FL...2 to 4 ft

The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of
Dorian comes to the Florida east coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through late this week:

Northwestern Bahamas...12 to 24 inches, isolated 30 inches.
Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
The Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula through Georgia...3 to
6 inches, isolated 9 inches.
Southeastern Virginia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells are already affecting east-facing shores of the
Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and will spread northward along the
southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila/Cangialosi

>

2019-09-01 20:58

WTNT45 KNHC 012056
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

The distinct eye of powerful Hurricane Dorian is moving over
Great Abaco. The latest wind and pressure data from an Air Force
reconnaissance plane just before the eye hit the island indicated
that the winds reached 160 kt, which is the initial intensity for
this advisory. It is not very often that we measure such strong
winds. The minimum pressure measured by the plane was 910 mb.

The eye has been shrinking, and an eyewall replacement cycle is
possibly occurring. The effect of the island terrain and the
eyewall replacement cycle should result in some slight fluctuations
in intensity during the next 24 to 36 hours, but the hurricane will
continue to be extremely dangerous one during that time. After 3
days, a more definite weakening trend should begin as the hurricane
encounters stronger shear. Dorian however, it is forecast to remain
a hurricane for the next 5 days.

Dorian has slowed down even more and is now moving toward the west
or 270 degrees at 4 kt. The steering currents are collapsing and
Dorian is expected to slow down a little more, prolonging its
catastrophic effects in the northwestern Bahamas. The NHC forecast
calls for a slow west to west-northwest motion during the next 48
hours. A turn to the north and northeast with a gradual increase in
forward speed is expected thereafter, as the mid-level trough over
the eastern United States deepens. The current forecast is not very
different from the previous one, and it is very close to the
multi-model consensus TVCA. Both the deterministic and consensus
tracks have shown the usual variability to the right or to the left
from run to run, but the overall trend is for the hurricane to turn
northward offshore but dangerously close to the Florida peninsula.

Given the uncertainty in the track forecast and the anticipated
increase in size of the hurricane, a Hurricane Warning and Storm
Surge Warning have been issued for a portion of the Florida east
coast. It is once again emphasized that although the official track
forecast does not show landfall, users should not focus on the exact
track. A small deviation to the left of the track could bring the
intense core of the hurricane its dangerous winds closer to or onto
the Florida coast.

Key Messages:

1. A prolonged period of catastrophic winds and storm surge will
affect the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island tonight. Everyone
there should take immediate shelter and not venture into the eye.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds
are expected along portions of the Florida east coast through
mid-week, and storm surge and hurricane warnings are in effect. Only
a slight deviation to the left of the official forecast would bring
the core of Dorian near or over the Florida east coast. Residents
should listen to advice given by local emergency officials.

3. There is an increasing likelihood of strong winds and dangerous
storm surge along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, North
Carolina later this week. Residents in these areas should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian and listen to advice given by
local emergency officials.

4. Heavy rains, capable of producing life-threatening flash floods,
are expected over northern portions of the Bahamas and coastal
sections of the southeast and lower mid-Atlantic regions of the
United States through late this week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 26.6N 77.3W 160 KT 185 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 26.7N 78.1W 155 KT 180 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 26.8N 78.7W 145 KT 165 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 27.0N 79.0W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 27.7N 79.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 30.0N 80.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 33.0N 78.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 36.5N 73.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-01 20:57

WTNT35 KNHC 012055
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

...EYE OF CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE DORIAN CRAWLING OVER THE ABACOS
ISLANDS IN THE BAHAMAS...
...DORIAN'S FURY NOW AIMING TOWARD GRAND BAHAMA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 77.3W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...910 MB...26.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Lantana to the
Volusia/Brevard County Line.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from the Volusia/Brevard County
Line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued from Jupiter Inlet to the
Volusia/Brevard County Line.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued from the Volusia/Brevard County
Line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Lantana to the Volusia/Brevard County Line

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Lantana
* Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island
* Jupiter Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County Line

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island
* North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet
* Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional watches or
warnings may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Dorian was
located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 77.3 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slower westward
to west-northwestward motions should continue for the next day or
two, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest. On this
track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will
continue to pound Great Abaco this evening and move near or
over Grand Bahama Island tonight and Monday. The hurricane will
move dangerously close to the Florida east coast late Monday through
Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 185 mph (295 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely,
and Dorian is expected to remain a catastrophic hurricane during the
next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The last minimum central pressure measured by an Air Force
reconnaissance plane a couple of hours ago was 910 mb (26.88
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Catastrophic hurricane conditions are occurring in the Abacos
Islands and will spread across Grand Bahama Island tonight. Do not
venture out into the eye, as winds will suddenly increase as the eye
passes.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area
in Florida by late Monday or Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area on Monday and Tuesday and are possible in the tropical
storm watch area by Monday night.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Volusia/Brevard County Line to Jupiter Inlet FL...4 to 7 ft
North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet FL...2 to 4 ft

The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of
Dorian comes to the Florida east coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through late this week:

Northwestern Bahamas...12 to 24 inches, isolated 30 inches.
Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
The Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula through Georgia...3 to
6 inches, isolated 9 inches.
Southeastern Virginia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells are already affecting east-facing shores of the
Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and will spread northward along the
southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-01 20:57

WTNT25 KNHC 012055
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
2100 UTC SUN SEP 01 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM LANTANA TO THE
VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE.

A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY
LINE TO THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE.

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM JUPITER INLET TO THE
VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY
LINE TO THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LANTANA TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO LANTANA
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND
* JUPITER INLET TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANDROS ISLAND
* NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER INLET
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER INLET

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO DEERFIELD BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION
OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE
WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A
LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS
SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM
RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN...AS ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 77.3W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 910 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 160 KT WITH GUSTS TO 195 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 90SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 77.3W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 77.1W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 26.7N 78.1W
MAX WIND 155 KT...GUSTS 190 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 26.8N 78.7W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 27.0N 79.0W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 27.7N 79.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 30.0N 80.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 33.0N 78.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 36.5N 73.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.6N 77.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 02/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

>

2019-09-01 19:59

WTNT65 KNHC 011957
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
400 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

...CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 DORIAN POUNDING GREAT ABACO...

This is a life-threatening situation. Residents in the Abacos
should stay in their shelter. Do not venture out into the eye if it
passes over your location.

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts over 220 mph
- Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves

These hazards will cause extreme destruction in the affected areas
and will continue for several hours.


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 77.3W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...910 MB...26.87 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-09-01 18:58

WTNT65 KNHC 011856
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
300 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

...CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 DORIAN MOVING ACROSS GREAT ABACO...

This is a life-threatening situation. Residents in the Abacos
should stay in their shelter. Do not venture into the eye if it
passes over your location.

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts over 220 mph
- Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves

These hazards will cause extreme destruction in the affected areas
and will continue for several hours.


SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 77.2W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...910 MB...26.87 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-09-01 17:48

WTNT35 KNHC 011746
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 33A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

...EYE OF CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE DORIAN OVER THE ABACOS ISLANDS IN
THE BAHAMAS...
...HEADING WITH ALL ITS FURY TOWARD GRAND BAHAMA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 77.1W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM OVER GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...911 MB...26.90 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island
* North of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional watches or
warnings may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the extremely distinct eye of Hurricane
Dorian was located near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 77.1 West.
Dorian is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slower
westward motion should continue for the next day or two, followed by
a gradual turn toward the northwest. On this track, the core of
extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will continue to pound Great
Abaco today and the move near or over Grand Bahama Island tonight
and Monday. The hurricane should move closer to the Florida east
coast late Monday through Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 185 mph (295 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is a extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity
are likely, and Dorian is expected to remain a catastrophic
hurricane during the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The minimum central pressure measured by both NOAA and Air Force
reconnaissance plane was 911 mb (26.90 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Catastrophic hurricane conditions are occurring in the Abacos
Islands and will spread across Grand Bahama Island later today and
tonight. Do not venture out into the eye, as winds will suddenly
increase as the eye passes.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in
Florida by late Monday or early Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area on Monday and Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm
watch area by Monday night.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Volusia/Brevard County Line to Jupiter Inlet FL...4 to 7 ft
North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet FL...2 to 4 ft

The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of
Dorian comes to the Florida east coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through late this week:

Northwestern Bahamas...12 to 24 inches, isolated 30 inches.
Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Central Bahamas and the Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula
through Georgia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells are already affecting east-facing shores of the
Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and will spread northward along the
southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

Hourly Tropical Cyclone Update statements will begin at 300 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-01 16:46

WTNT65 KNHC 011644
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1245 pm EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

...CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 DORIAN MAKES LANDFALL ON ELBOW CAY IN THE
ABACOS...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
satellite data indicate that Dorian has made landfall at 1240 pm
EDT (1640 UTC) in Elbow Cay, Abacos. The winds have increased
to 185 mph (295 km/h) with the minimum central pressure falling to
911 mb (26.90 inches).

This is a life-threatening situation. Residents there should take
immediate shelter. Do not venture into the eye if it passes over
your location.

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts over 220 mph
- Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves

These hazards will cause extreme destruction in the affected areas
and will continue for several hours.


SUMMARY OF 1245 PM EDT...1645 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 77.0W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...911 MB...26.90 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Avila/Blake

>

2019-09-01 14:59

WTNT45 KNHC 011457
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

Air Force and NOAA reconnaissance planes penetrated the distinct
eye of Dorian, and found that the hurricane has become extremely
intense with a stadium effect in the eye. The NOAA plane reported a
peak flight-level wind of 159 kt, while the SFMR from both planes
have measured winds between 155 and 170 kt. A dropsonde from the
NOAA plane measured a wind gust of 176 kt at the surface. A blend of
these measurements yield to an initial intensity of 155 kt, making
Dorian the strongest hurricane on record in the northwestern
Bahamas.

For the next few days, Dorian should experience some fluctuations in
intensity, and in addition to eyewall replacement cyclone, the
interaction with the northwestern Bahamas should weaken the
hurricane slightly. After 3 days, as Dorian moves northward along
or offshore of southeast United States coast, the shear is forecast
to increase, resulting in a more distinct gradual weakening.

Reconnaissance plane and satellite fixes indicate that Dorian, as
anticipated, has slowed down and is moving toward the west or 270
degrees at 6 kt. The steering currents are collapsing and Dorian is
expected to slow down even more, prolonging its catastrophic effects
in the northwestern Bahamas. The NHC forecast calls for a slow west
to west-northwest motion during the next 48 hours, with a turn to
the north and an increase in forward speed as the mid-level trough
along the eastern United States deepens and becomes the dominant
steering feature. The current forecast is only a few miles west of
the previous one and is basically on top of the multi-model
consensus. Both the deterministic and consensus tracks have shown
the usual variability to the right or to the left from run to run,
but the overall trend is for the hurricane to turn northward
offshore but very close to the Florida peninsula.

Given the uncertainty in the track forecast and the anticipated
increase in size of the hurricane, a Hurricane Watch and Storm
Surge Watch have been issued for a portion of the east Florida
coast. It is emphasized that although the official track forecast
does not show landfall, users should not focus on the exact track. A
small deviation to the left of the track could bring the intense
core of the hurricane its dangerous winds closer to or onto the
coast.

Key Messages:

1. A prolonged period of catastrophic winds and storm surge will
affect the Abaco Islands today. Everyone there should take immediate
shelter and not venture into the eye. These catastrophic conditions
are likely on Grand Bahama Island later today or tonight, and
efforts to protect life and property there should be rushed to
completion.

2. Storm surge and hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are
in effect for portions of the Florida east coast. Life-threatening
storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are possible along
portions of the Florida east coast through mid-week, as only a
slight deviation to the left of the official forecast would bring
the core of Dorian near or over the coast. Residents should listen
to advice given by local emergency officials.

3. There is an increasing likelihood of strong winds and dangerous
storm surge along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North
Carolina later this week. Residents in these areas should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian.

4. Heavy rains, capable of producing life-threatening flash floods,
are possible over northern portions of the Bahamas and coastal
sections of the southeast and lower mid-Atlantic regions of the
United States through late this week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 26.5N 76.8W 155 KT 180 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 26.6N 77.7W 150 KT 175 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 26.8N 78.5W 145 KT 165 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 27.0N 79.0W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 27.4N 79.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 29.7N 80.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 32.5N 79.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 35.5N 74.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-01 14:58

WTNT35 KNHC 011456
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

...DORIAN BECOMES THE STRONGEST HURRICANE IN MODERN RECORDS FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
...CATASTROPHIC CONDITIONS OCCURING IN THE ABACOS ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 76.8W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...913 MB...26.96 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the east coast of Florida from
north of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line.

A Storm Surge Watch has also been issued from north of Deerfield
Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Lake Okeechobee.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island
* North of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional watches or
warnings may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the extremely distinct eye of Hurricane
Dorian was located near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 76.8 West.
Dorian is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slower
westward motion should continue for the next day or two, followed by
a gradual turn toward the northwest. On this track, the core of
extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will continue to move over
Great Abaco and move near or over Grand Bahama Island later tonight
and Monday. The hurricane should move closer to the Florida east
coast late Monday through Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 180 mph (285 km/h)
with higher gusts. Dorian is a extremely dangerous category 5
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some
fluctuations in intensity are likely, but Dorian is expected to
remain a powerful hurricane during the next few days.

Dorian has grown larger in size. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-
force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). Ham radio
reports indicate that Hope Town in the Abacos just reported wind
gust to 100 mph.

The minimum central pressure measured by both NOAA and Air Force
reconnaissance plane was 913 mb (26.96 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Catastrophic hurricane conditions are occurring in the Abacos
Islands and will spread across Grand Bahama Island later today and
tonight.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in
Florida by late Monday or early Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area on Monday and Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm
watch area by Monday night.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Volusia/Brevard County Line to Jupiter Inlet FL...4 to 7 ft
North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet FL...2 to 4 ft

The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of
Dorian comes to the Florida east coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through late this week:

Northwestern Bahamas...12 to 24 inches, isolated 30 inches.
Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Central Bahamas and the Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula
through Georgia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells are already affecting east-facing shores of the
Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and will spread northward along the
southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-01 14:57

WTNT25 KNHC 011455
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
1500 UTC SUN SEP 01 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM
NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE.

A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD
BEACH TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANDROS ISLAND
* NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO SEBASTIAN INLET

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO DEERFIELD BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN...AS ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 76.8W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 913 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 155 KT WITH GUSTS TO 190 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 76.8W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 76.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 26.6N 77.7W
MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 26.8N 78.5W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 27.0N 79.0W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 27.4N 79.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 29.7N 80.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 32.5N 79.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 35.5N 74.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.5N 76.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 01/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

>

2019-09-01 13:33

WTNT65 KNHC 011330
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
930 AM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

...CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 DORIAN CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY AS IT
APPROACHES THE ABACO ISLANDS...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Dorian has continued to intensify, and now has maximum
sustained winds near 175 mph (280 km/h), with a minimum central
pressure of 922 mb (27.23 inches).

The eyewall of catastrophic Hurricane Dorian is currently reaching
the Abaco Islands. This is a life-threatening situation. Residents
there should take immediate shelter. Do not venture into the eye if
it passes over your location.

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts over 200 mph
- Storm Surge 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves

These hazards will cause extreme destruction in the affected areas.
and will continue for several hours.


SUMMARY OF 930 AM EDT...1330 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 76.6W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...922 MB...27.73 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Blake/Zelinsky/Avila

>

2019-09-01 11:54

WTNT35 KNHC 011152
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 32A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

...EYEWALL OF NOW CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE DORIAN ABOUT TO
HIT THE ABACO ISLANDS WITH DEVASTATING WINDS...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO
EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 76.5W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...927 MB...27.37 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southern and central Florida should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian. Additional watches or warnings
may be required for portions of the east coast of Florida today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Dorian
was located near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 76.5 West. Dorian
is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a slower
westward motion should occur for the next day or two, followed by a
gradual turn toward the northwest. On this track, the core of
extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian should be moving over Great
Abaco soon, and continue near or over Grand Bahama Island later
tonight and Monday. The hurricane should move closer to the Florida
east coast late Monday through Tuesday night.

Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane which just penetrated
the eye of Dorian indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is
now a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely, but Dorian is
expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km). Elbow Cay in the Abaco Islands just reported winds
of 35 mph (56 km/h)

The minimum central pressure just measured by an Air Force plane was
927 mb (27.37 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Devastating hurricane conditions are expected in the Abacos
Islands very soon and these conditions will spread across Grand
Bahama Island later today.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area on Monday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm
watch area by Monday night.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through late this week:

Northwestern Bahamas...12 to 24 inches, isolated 30 inches.
Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Central Bahamas and the Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula
through Georgia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells will affect the east-facing shores of the
Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United States
coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-01 09:01

WTNT45 KNHC 010859
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

Dorian continues to exhibit a well-defined eye surrounded by very
cold cloud tops on satellite images. Observations from an Air
Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft from several hours ago indicated
that the intensity was still near 130 kt, and since the cloud
pattern remains very impressive, it is assumed that Dorian has at
least maintained that strength through the present time. The
hurricane will remain in a fairly low-shear environment for the
next few days, however since it is forecast to move quite slowly
over the shallow waters of the northwesternnmost Bahamas through
Monday, this would likely result in less available oceanic heat
content. Therefore, a very slow weakening is anticipated to
commence after 12 hours or so. The official intensity forecast is
near the high end of the numerical guidance suite.

The hurricane continues moving westward, or about 280/7 kt. A high
pressure ridge to the north of Dorian should maintain this westward
movement through today. By tonight, the global models show the
ridge weakening, and this evolution should result in a slowing of
the forward speed, with the hurricane becoming nearly stationary
around 48 hours. In comparison to its earlier runs, the new ECMWF
track forecast takes the system farther to the west during the next
couple of days, and is the southwesternmost model through 48 hours.
As a result, the official track forecast has been shifted a little
west during that time frame. In 2 to 4 days, Dorian should turn
northward in response to a trough over the eastern United States.
By the end of the period, the flow on the south side of the trough
should cause the cyclone to move northeastward near the Carolinas.

The westward shift of the NHC track within the first 48 hours
necessitates the change from a Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical
Storm Warning for a portion of the Florida east coast. Although
the official track forecast does not show landfall, users should not
focus on the exact track since a Florida landfall is still a
distinct possibility.


Key Messages:

1. A prolonged period of life-threatening storm surge, devastating
hurricane-force winds, and heavy rains capable of producing
life-threatening flash floods are expected on the Abaco Islands and
Grand Bahama through Monday, and a hurricane warning is in effect
for these areas.

2. A tropical storm warning is now in effect for a portion of the
Florida east coast. Since Dorian is forecast to slow down and turn
northward as it approaches the coast, life-threatening storm surge
and dangerous hurricane-force winds are still possible along
portions of the Florida east coast by the middle part of this week.
Residents should have their hurricane plan in place, know if they
are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to advice given by
local emergency officials.

3. There is an increasing risk of strong winds and dangerous storm
surge along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North
Carolina later this week. Residents in these areas should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian.

4. Heavy rains, capable of producing life-threatening flash floods,
are possible over coastal sections of the southeast and lower
mid-Atlantic regions of the United States through late this week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 26.4N 76.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 26.6N 77.1W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 26.7N 78.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 26.9N 78.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 27.0N 79.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 28.9N 79.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 31.8N 79.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 34.5N 76.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2019-09-01 08:53

WTNT35 KNHC 010851
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DORIAN EXPECTED TO HIT THE ABACO
ISLANDS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND LATER TODAY...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS...AND VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 76.0W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch from north of Deerfield Beach to Sebastian
Inlet is changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from north of Golden Beach to
Deerfield Beach.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southern and central Florida should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian. Additional watches or warnings
may be required for portions of the east coast of Florida today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 76.0 West. Dorian is moving
toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a slower westward motion
should occur for the next day or two, followed by a gradual turn
toward the northwest. On this track, the core of Dorian should be
near or over portions of the northwestern Bahamas later today and
tonight, and should move closer to the Florida east coast late
Monday through Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely,
but Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the
next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb (27.58 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area across the northwestern Bahamas later today, with tropical
storm winds beginning within the next few hours.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area on Monday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm
watch area by Monday night.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through late this week:

Northwestern Bahamas...12 to 24 inches, isolated 30 inches.
Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Central Bahamas and the Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula
through Georgia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells will affect the east-facing shores of the
Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United States
coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2019-09-01 08:53

WTNT25 KNHC 010851
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
0900 UTC SUN SEP 01 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO SEBASTIAN
INLET IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO
DEERFIELD BEACH.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANDROS ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO SEBASTIAN INLET

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO DEERFIELD BEACH

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 76.0W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 934 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 76.0W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 75.6W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 26.6N 77.1W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 26.7N 78.1W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 26.9N 78.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 27.0N 79.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 28.9N 79.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 31.8N 79.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 34.5N 76.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.4N 76.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 01/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2019-09-01 05:37

WTNT35 KNHC 010535
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 31A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
200 AM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DORIAN CLOSING IN ON THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWESTERNMOST BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 75.6W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southern and central Florida should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian. Additional watches may be
required for portions of the east coast of Florida today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 75.6 West. Dorian is moving
toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a slower westward motion
should occur for the next day or two, followed by a gradual turn
toward the northwest. On this track, the core of Dorian should be
near or over portions of the northwestern Bahamas later today, and
move closer to the Florida east coast late Monday through Tuesday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 150 mph (240
km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity
are likely, but Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane
during the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter
observations is 934 mb (27.58 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area across the northwestern Bahamas later today, with tropical
storm winds beginning within the next several hours.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm
watch area on Monday.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week:

Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Coastal sections of the southeast United States from central
Florida northward through the Carolinas...4 to 8 inches, isolated
12 inches.
Central Bahamas and South Florida...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells will affect the east-facing shores of the
Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United States
coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2019-09-01 04:03

WTNT82 EGRR 010402

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 01.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.0N 106.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP982019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.09.2019 0 11.0N 106.8W 1006 25
1200UTC 01.09.2019 12 13.3N 108.1W 1004 30
0000UTC 02.09.2019 24 14.5N 110.2W 1001 32
1200UTC 02.09.2019 36 15.2N 112.1W 998 34
0000UTC 03.09.2019 48 16.3N 114.0W 995 38
1200UTC 03.09.2019 60 16.9N 115.7W 992 46
0000UTC 04.09.2019 72 17.5N 117.2W 988 52
1200UTC 04.09.2019 84 17.8N 118.8W 979 59
0000UTC 05.09.2019 96 18.1N 120.5W 967 61
1200UTC 05.09.2019 108 18.7N 122.1W 966 63
0000UTC 06.09.2019 120 19.7N 124.3W 969 65
1200UTC 06.09.2019 132 20.8N 126.6W 973 64
0000UTC 07.09.2019 144 22.2N 128.4W 985 54

HURRICANE DORIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 26.2N 74.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.09.2019 0 26.2N 74.8W 987 60
1200UTC 01.09.2019 12 26.4N 76.4W 984 60
0000UTC 02.09.2019 24 26.5N 77.5W 975 60
1200UTC 02.09.2019 36 26.7N 78.3W 968 66
0000UTC 03.09.2019 48 26.7N 78.6W 955 73
1200UTC 03.09.2019 60 27.0N 78.8W 948 76
0000UTC 04.09.2019 72 28.1N 79.4W 941 85
1200UTC 04.09.2019 84 29.5N 80.2W 932 91
0000UTC 05.09.2019 96 30.9N 80.2W 933 87
1200UTC 05.09.2019 108 32.5N 79.2W 930 89
0000UTC 06.09.2019 120 34.0N 76.9W 936 83
1200UTC 06.09.2019 132 35.2N 74.1W 948 65
0000UTC 07.09.2019 144 36.5N 70.5W 951 70

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 14.0N 23.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.09.2019 132 14.4N 24.9W 1008 24
0000UTC 07.09.2019 144 15.8N 27.2W 1008 29


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 010401

>

2019-09-01 04:03

WTNT80 EGRR 010401

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 01.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.0N 106.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP982019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 01.09.2019 11.0N 106.8W WEAK
12UTC 01.09.2019 13.3N 108.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.09.2019 14.5N 110.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.09.2019 15.2N 112.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.09.2019 16.3N 114.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2019 16.9N 115.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2019 17.5N 117.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.09.2019 17.8N 118.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.09.2019 18.1N 120.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 05.09.2019 18.7N 122.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2019 19.7N 124.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2019 20.8N 126.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.09.2019 22.2N 128.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

HURRICANE DORIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 26.2N 74.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 01.09.2019 26.2N 74.8W MODERATE
12UTC 01.09.2019 26.4N 76.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.09.2019 26.5N 77.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.09.2019 26.7N 78.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.09.2019 26.7N 78.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 03.09.2019 27.0N 78.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.09.2019 28.1N 79.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.09.2019 29.5N 80.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.09.2019 30.9N 80.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2019 32.5N 79.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2019 34.0N 76.9W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.09.2019 35.2N 74.1W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.09.2019 36.5N 70.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 14.0N 23.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 06.09.2019 14.4N 24.9W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 07.09.2019 15.8N 27.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 010401

>

2019-09-01 02:58

WTNT45 KNHC 010256
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019

Data from both Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Dorian remains a very powerful hurricane, and the satellite
presentation is still quite impressive with a very stable,
well-defined eye. There has been no evidence of concentric eyewalls
in aircraft or microwave data, which is somewhat surprising given
that the intensity has been at category 4 strength for 24 hours.
Both aircraft measured peak flight-level winds that support an
initial intensity of 130 kt. There have been some higher surface
wind estimates from the SFMR, but these data are questionable based
on our experience of very high SFMR-measured wind speeds in recent
strong hurricanes that didn't match standard flight-level wind
reductions.

Dorian is forecast to continue moving over very warm waters and
into a low-shear environment during the next 12-24 hours, so some
additional strengthening is possible. Difficult-to-predict
eyewall cycles, however, are likely to begin at some point within
the next day or so and could cause fluctuations in intensity. After
72 hours, increasing southerly shear is likely to produce gradual
weakening, but Dorian is foreast to remain a dangerous hurricane
through the forecast period.

The hurricane is moving westward or 280/7 kt. A high pressure ridge
to the north of Dorian is predicted to remain intact into early
Sunday, and the hurricane should continue westward. By late Sunday,
the dynamical models erode the western portion of the ridge, which
should cause the hurricane to slow down and become nearly stationary
over the northwestern Bahamas in 36 to 48 hours. After that time,
the weakness in the ridge becomes more pronounced, and Dorian is
expected to turn northwestward, and eventually northeastward near
the southeastern United States coast. Although there is general
agreement on this overall scenario, there is still considerable
spread on how close the storm will track to the east coast of
Florida and the southeastern coast of the United States. The latest
HWRF run has shifted westward and takes Dorian across the coast of
central Florida. The 18Z GFS also shifted a little left closer to
the Florida coast. The latest multi-model consensus aids shifted
west closer to the previous NHC track, so very little change to
that forecast was made. Although the exact NHC track forecast lies
east of the Florida peninsula, a track closer to the coast or even
a landfall remain a possibility. Since the updated track was
slightly slower than the previous advisory, no additional watches
are needed for Florida at this time.

Key Messages:

1. A prolonged period of life-threatening storm surge, devastating
hurricane-force winds, and heavy rains capable of life-threatening
flash floods are expected on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama
Sunday through Monday, and a hurricane warning is in effect for
these areas.

2. A tropical storm watch is in effect for a portion of the Florida
east coast. Since Dorian is forecast to slow down and turn northward
as it approaches the coast, life-threatening storm surge and
dangerous hurricane-force winds are still possible along portions of
the Florida east coast by the early to middle part of next week.
Residents should have their hurricane plan in place, know if they
are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to advice given by
local emergency officials.

3. There is an increasing risk of strong winds and dangerous storm
surge along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North
Carolina during the middle of next week. Residents in these areas
should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian.

4. Heavy rains, capable of life-threatening flash floods, are
possible over coastal sections of the southeastern United States
from Monday through Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 26.3N 75.1W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 26.4N 76.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 26.6N 77.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 26.8N 78.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 27.0N 78.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 28.5N 79.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 31.1N 80.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 34.0N 77.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-01 02:54

WTNT35 KNHC 010252
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DORIAN MOVING CLOSER TO THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWESTERNMOST BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 75.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southern and central Florida should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian. Additional watches may be
required for portions of the east coast of Florida on Sunday.


For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was
located near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 75.1 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a slower westward
motion should continue for the next day or two, followed by
a gradual turn toward the northwest. On this track, the core of
Dorian should be near or over portions of the northwestern Bahamas
on Sunday, and move closer to the Florida east coast late Monday
through Tuesday.

Data from NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that
the maximum sustained winds remain near 150 mph (240 km/h) with
higher gusts. Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity
are likely, but Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane
during the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance
aircraft data is 940 mb (27.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area across the northwestern Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm
winds beginning overnight.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm
watch area on Monday.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week:

Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Coastal sections of the southeast United States from central
Florida northward through the Carolinas...4 to 8 inches, isolated
12 inches.
Central Bahamas and South Florida...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells will affect the east-facing shores of the
Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United States
coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-01 02:53

WTNT25 KNHC 010251
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
0300 UTC SUN SEP 01 2019

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANDROS ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DEERFIELD BEACH TO SEBASTIAN INLET

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN. ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 75.1W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 75.1W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 74.7W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.4N 76.3W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 26.6N 77.4W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 26.8N 78.1W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 27.0N 78.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 28.5N 79.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 31.1N 80.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 34.0N 77.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.3N 75.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 01/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-08-31 23:43

WTNT35 KNHC 312340
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 30A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
800 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019

...NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REAFFIRM DORIAN'S
CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 74.7W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southern and central Florida should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian. Additional watches may be
required for portions of the east coast of Florida tonight or
Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Dorian was
located near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 74.7 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a slower westward
motion should continue for the next day or two, followed by a
gradual turn toward the northwest. On this track, the core of Dorian
should be near or over portions of the northwestern Bahamas on
Sunday, and move closer to the Florida east coast late Monday
through Tuesday.

Data from NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds remain near 150 mph (240 km/h)
with higher gusts. Dorian remains a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity
are likely, but Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane
during the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance
aircraft is 941 mb (27.79 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area across the northwestern Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm
winds beginning tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm
watch area on Monday.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week:

Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Coastal sections of the southeast United States...4 to 8 inches,
isolated 12 inches.
Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Swells will begin affect the east-facing shores of the
Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United States
coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Cangialosi

>

2019-08-31 20:54

WTNT45 KNHC 312052
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019

Dorian's satellite presentation continues to be outstanding. The
eye has remained very distinct and is surrounded by a ring of very
deep convection. The latest information from the Air Force plane
before it departed Dorian supports keeping an initial intensity of
130 kt. Dorian is forecast to move over a deep layer of very warm
waters, and with the prevailing low shear along the hurricane's
path, some additional strengthening is possible during the next day
or so. Most likely, however, the hurricane will experience some
fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement cycles that are
difficult to predict. Beyond 3 days, as the hurricane begins to gain
latitude and encounters increasing shear, gradual weakening is
anticipated, but Dorian will remain a dangerous hurricane through 5
days.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west or 280
degrees at 8 kt. The hurricane is being steered by the weak flow to
the south of the ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic.
In about a day or two, most of the global models shift the high
eastward and deepen a trough over the eastern United States.
Consequently, the steering currents should collapse and Dorian
is anticipated to drift toward the northwest and north-northwest
while is moving over the northwestern Bahamas and near the east
coast of Florida. After that time, the hurricane should begin to
move a little faster northward as the trough over the eastern U.S
deepens and should then steer the hurricane toward the northeast by
the end of the forecast period.

The guidance has not changed significantly since the earlier run, so
it has not been necessary to adjust the NHC forecast in this
advisory. The uncertainty in the track is high while the hurricane
is moving slowly across the northwestern Bahamas and near the east
coast of Florida. Any deviation of Dorian's core to the left would
result in an increase in the winds along the east coast of Florida.

Given that the area of tropical storm force winds could expand, and
taking into account the uncertainty in the track forecast, a
tropical storm watch was issued for the east of Florida from
Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet.

Key Messages:

1. A prolonged period of life-threatening storm surge, devastating
hurricane-force winds, and heavy rains capable of life-threatening
flash floods are expected on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama
Sunday through Monday, and a hurricane warning is in effect for
these areas.

2. A tropical storm watch is in effect for a portion of the Florida
east coast. Since Dorian is forecast to slow down and turn northward
as it approaches the coast, life-threatening storm surge and
dangerous hurricane-force winds are still possible along portions of
the Florida east coast by the early to middle part of next week.
Residents should have their hurricane plan in place, know if they
are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to advice given by
local emergency officials.

3. There is an increasing risk of strong winds and dangerous storm
surge along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North
Carolina during the middle of next week. Residents in these areas
should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian.

4. Heavy rains, capable of life-threatening flash floods, are
possible over coastal sections of the southeastern United States
from Sunday through much of next week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 26.2N 74.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 26.4N 75.7W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 26.6N 77.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 26.8N 78.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 27.2N 78.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 28.3N 79.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 31.0N 80.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 34.0N 77.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila/Brennan

>

2019-08-31 20:53

WTNT35 KNHC 312051
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019

...SEVERE HURRICANE DORIAN EXPECTED TO HIT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS HARD ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 74.4W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the east coast of Florida
from Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southern and central Florida should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian. Additional watches may be
required for portions of the east coast of Florida tonight or
Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Dorian was
located near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 74.4 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a slower westward
motion should continue for the next day or two, followed by a
gradual turn toward the northwest. On this track, the core of Dorian
should move be near or over portions of the northwestern Bahamas on
Sunday, and move closer to the Florida east coast late Monday
through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely,
but Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the
next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area across the northwestern Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm
winds beginning tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm
watch area on Monday.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week:

Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Coastal sections of the southeast United States...4 to 8 inches,
isolated 12 inches.
Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Swells will begin affect the east-facing shores of the
Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United States
coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila/Brennan

>

2019-08-31 20:51

WTNT25 KNHC 312049
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
2100 UTC SAT AUG 31 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO SEBASTIAN INLET.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANDROS ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DEERFIELD BEACH TO SEBASTIAN INLET

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN. ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 74.4W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 74.4W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 74.0W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 26.4N 75.7W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 26.6N 77.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 26.8N 78.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 27.2N 78.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 28.3N 79.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 31.0N 80.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 34.0N 77.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N 74.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 01/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BRENNAN

>

2019-08-31 17:44

WTNT35 KNHC 311742
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 29A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019

...SEVERE HURRICANE DORIAN CONTINUES HEADING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS WITH LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DEVASTATING WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 73.9W
ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM E OF GREAT ABACO IN THE BAHAMAS
ABOUT 385 MI...625 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests in southern and central Florida should continue to monitor
the progress of Dorian. Watches may be required for portions of the
east coast of Florida later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Dorian was
located near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 73.9 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a slower westward
motion should continue into early next week. On this track, the
core of Dorian should move over the Atlantic well north of the
southeastern and central Bahamas today, be near or over the
northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and move near the Florida east coast
late Monday through Tuesday.

Data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that the
maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely, but
Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next
few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by a reconnaissance plane was
945 mb (27.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area across the northwestern Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm
winds beginning tonight.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds in Great Abaco and Grand Bahama. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week:

Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Coastal sections of the southeast United States...4 to 8 inches,
isolated 12 inches.
Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Swells will begin affect the east-facing shores of the
Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United States
coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-08-31 16:01

WTNT82 EGRR 311600

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 31.08.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98E ANALYSED POSITION : 9.6N 107.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP982019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 31.08.2019 0 9.6N 107.6W 1009 19
0000UTC 01.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE DORIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 25.8N 73.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 31.08.2019 0 25.8N 73.0W 986 60
0000UTC 01.09.2019 12 26.3N 75.2W 984 63
1200UTC 01.09.2019 24 26.4N 76.8W 978 66
0000UTC 02.09.2019 36 26.5N 77.8W 968 65
1200UTC 02.09.2019 48 26.5N 78.3W 963 69
0000UTC 03.09.2019 60 26.6N 78.5W 954 75
1200UTC 03.09.2019 72 26.9N 78.7W 944 79
0000UTC 04.09.2019 84 28.1N 79.5W 923 94
1200UTC 04.09.2019 96 29.5N 80.4W 931 91
0000UTC 05.09.2019 108 31.2N 80.1W 932 90
1200UTC 05.09.2019 120 32.8N 78.5W 925 93
0000UTC 06.09.2019 132 34.7N 75.5W 927 94
1200UTC 06.09.2019 144 36.1N 71.5W 940 80

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 13.3N 108.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.09.2019 36 13.9N 110.0W 1002 30
1200UTC 02.09.2019 48 14.7N 112.3W 1000 33
0000UTC 03.09.2019 60 15.7N 114.2W 997 35
1200UTC 03.09.2019 72 16.4N 116.3W 994 42
0000UTC 04.09.2019 84 16.6N 117.9W 992 45
1200UTC 04.09.2019 96 16.7N 119.3W 985 55
0000UTC 05.09.2019 108 16.7N 121.1W 975 62
1200UTC 05.09.2019 120 16.9N 123.0W 968 67
0000UTC 06.09.2019 132 17.2N 125.3W 964 70
1200UTC 06.09.2019 144 17.4N 127.7W 963 65

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 14.0N 147.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.09.2019 132 14.0N 147.4W 1006 30
1200UTC 06.09.2019 144 14.2N 149.0W 1004 35


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 311600

>

2019-08-31 16:01

WTNT80 EGRR 311600

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 31.08.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98E ANALYSED POSITION : 9.6N 107.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP982019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 31.08.2019 9.6N 107.6W WEAK
00UTC 01.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE DORIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 25.8N 73.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 31.08.2019 25.8N 73.0W MODERATE
00UTC 01.09.2019 26.3N 75.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.09.2019 26.4N 76.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.09.2019 26.5N 77.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.09.2019 26.5N 78.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.09.2019 26.6N 78.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.09.2019 26.9N 78.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.09.2019 28.1N 79.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 04.09.2019 29.5N 80.4W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.09.2019 31.2N 80.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2019 32.8N 78.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.09.2019 34.7N 75.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2019 36.1N 71.5W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 13.3N 108.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 02.09.2019 13.9N 110.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.09.2019 14.7N 112.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.09.2019 15.7N 114.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2019 16.4N 116.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2019 16.6N 117.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.09.2019 16.7N 119.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.09.2019 16.7N 121.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.09.2019 16.9N 123.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.09.2019 17.2N 125.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2019 17.4N 127.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 14.0N 147.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.09.2019 14.0N 147.4W WEAK
12UTC 06.09.2019 14.2N 149.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 311600

>

2019-08-31 14:58

WTNT45 KNHC 311456
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019

Dorian's satellite presentation is outstanding with a distinct eye
of about 15 n mi in diameter. Both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane
Hunter planes have been penetrating the eye this morning and based
on a blend of the flight-level and SFMR winds, the initial intensity
has been adjusted upward to 130 kt in this advisory. Dorian is
forecast to move over a deep layer of very warm waters, which is
like high octane-fuel for hurricanes. The combination of the warm
ocean and the prevailing low shear along Dorian's path should favor
some additional strengthening, but most likely the hurricane will
experience some fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement
cycles that are difficult to predict. Beyond 3 days, as the
hurricane begins to gain in latitude a gradual weakening is
anticipated.

Plane fixes indicate that Dorian is moving toward the west or 280
degrees at 7 kt, steered by weak flow to the south of the ridge
of high pressure over the western Atlantic. Most of the global
models shift the high eastward and deepens a trough over the
eastern United States beyond 2 days. This steering flow would
typically favor a gradual turn of the hurricane to the northwest and
north, however there is large uncertainty in the exact location
and timing of this northward turn. Although the latest guidance
has shifted a little bit eastward again this morning, there are
still ECMWF and GFS ensemble members that do not forecast the
northward turn so soon. On this basis, NHC prefers to shift the
track forecast just a little bit to the right of the previous one,
and the new official forecast lies along the western edge of the
guidance envelope. This will allow for further adjustments in the
track during future forecast cycles.

Key Messages:

1. A prolonged period of life-threatening storm surge and
devastating hurricane-force winds are expected in portions of the
northwestern Bahamas, particularly on the Abaco Islands and Grand
Bahama Island. A hurricane warning is in effect for these areas,
and residents should listen to advice given by local emergency
officials and have their hurricane preparations completed today.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds
are still possible along portions of the Florida east coast by the
early to middle part of next week, but since Dorian is forecast to
slow down and turn northward near or just offshore of the coast, it
is too soon to determine when or where the highest surge and winds
could occur. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place,
know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to
advice given by local emergency officials.

3. The risk of strong winds and dangerous storm surge is increasing
along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina
during the middle of next week. Residents in these areas should
continue to monitor the progress of Dorian.

4. Heavy rains, capable of life-threatening flash floods, are
expected over portions of the Bahamas and coastal sections of the
southeastern United States this weekend through much of next week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1500Z 26.0N 73.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 26.2N 74.7W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 26.6N 76.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 26.8N 77.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 27.0N 78.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 28.0N 79.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 30.5N 80.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 33.5N 78.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-08-31 14:58

WTNT25 KNHC 311455
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
1500 UTC SAT AUG 31 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANDROS ISLAND

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 73.4W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 73.4W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 73.0W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 26.2N 74.7W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.6N 76.2W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 26.8N 77.4W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 27.0N 78.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 28.0N 79.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 90SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 30.5N 80.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 33.5N 78.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.0N 73.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 31/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

>

2019-08-31 14:57

WTNT35 KNHC 311455
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019

...DORIAN'S FURY AIMING AT THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 73.4W
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM ENE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests in southern and central Florida should continue to monitor
the progress of Dorian. Watches may be required for portions of the
east coast of Florida later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Dorian was
located near latitude 26.0 North, longitude 73.4 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h) and a slower westward
motion should continue into early next week. On this track, the
core of Dorian should move over the Atlantic well north of the
southeastern and central Bahamas today, be near or over the
northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and move near the Florida east coast
late Monday through Tuesday.

Data from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter planes indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph (240
km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity
are likely, but Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane
during the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The minimum central pressure reported from both reconnaissance
planes was 945 mb (27.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area across the northwestern Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm
winds beginning tonight.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week:

Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Coastal sections of the southeast United States...4 to 8 inches,
isolated 12 inches.
Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Swells will begin affect the east-facing shores of the
Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United States
coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-08-31 11:37

WTNT35 KNHC 311135
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 28A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS DORIAN STRONGER
AND MOVING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 73.0W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests in southern and central Florida should continue to monitor
the progress of Dorian. Watches may be required for portions of the
east coast of Florida later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Dorian
was located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 73.0 West. Dorian is
now moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A slower westward
motion should continue into early next week. On this track, the
core of Dorian should move over the Atlantic well north of the
southeastern and central Bahamas today, be near or over the
northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and be near the Florida east coast
late Monday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that the maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (225 km/h) with
higher gusts. Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While some fluctuations in intensity
are possible, but Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane
during the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The latest minimum central pressure just reported by a NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 944 mb (27.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area across the northwestern Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm
winds beginning tonight.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week:

Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Coastal sections of the southeast United States...6 to 12 inches,
isolated 18 inches.
Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Swells will begin affect the east-facing shores of the
Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United
States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-08-31 08:51

WTNT45 KNHC 310848
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019

Dorian continues to look impressive in satellite imagery this
morning, with a fairly symmetric area of cold cloud tops surrounding
a 10-15 n mi wide eye. There have been no new aircraft data from
the storm since the last advisory. However, the satellite
appearance has changed little since the aircraft were last in the
storm, and the various subjective and objective satellite intensity
estimates have changed little over the past several hours. Based on
this, the initial intensity remains 120 kt.

The initial motion is now 290/10. A low- to mid-level subtropical
ridge to the north of the hurricane should steer it west-
northwestward to westward for the next 48 h or so, with the forward
speed becoming very slow as the center passes near or over the
Abacos and Grand Bahama. The track guidance for this part of the
track is tightly clustered, and the new forecast track is near the
ECMWF, UKMET, and HCCA corrected consensus models. The track
forecast becomes much more problematic after 48 h. The global
models the NHC normally uses, along with the regional HWRF and HMON
models, have made another shift to the east to the point where none
of them forecast Dorian to make landfall in Florida. However, the
UKMET ensemble mean still brings the hurricane over the Florida
peninsula, as do several GFS and ECMWF ensemble members. The new
track forecast for 72-120 h will be moved eastward to stay east of
the coast of Florida, and it lies between the old forecast and the
various consensus models. Additional adjustments to the forecast
track may be necessary later today if current model trends continue.
It should be noted that the new forecast track does not preclude
Dorian making landfall on the Florida coast, as large portions of
the coast remain in the track cone of uncertainty. Also,
significant impacts could occur even if the center stays offshore.

Dorian should remain in a generally favorable environment for the
next 3-4 days, and the intensity guidance indicates it will remain
a powerful hurricane during this time. The new intensity forecast
calls for a little more strengthening today, then it shows a slow
weakening that follows the trend of the intensity guidance. During
this time, the biggest intensity changes may come from hard-to-
forecast eyewall replacement cycles. Late in the forecast period,
increased vertical shear and proximity to land is expected to
cause some weakening.


Key Messages:

1. A prolonged period of life-threatening storm surge and
devastating hurricane-force winds are likely in portions of the
northwestern Bahamas, particularly on the Abaco Islands and Grand
Bahama Island. A hurricane warning is in effect for these areas,
and residents should listen to advice given by local emergency
officials and have their hurricane preparations completed today.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force
winds are still possible along portions of the Florida east coast
by the early to middle part of next week, but since Dorian is
forecast to slow down and turn northward near the coast, it is too
soon to determine when or where the highest surge and winds will
occur. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place, know
if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to advice
given by local emergency officials.

3. The risk of strong winds and life-threatening storm surge is
increasing along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina during
the middle of next week. Residents in those areas should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian.

4. Heavy rains, capable of life-threatening flash floods, are
expected over portions of the Bahamas and coastal sections of the
southeastern United States this weekend through much of next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0900Z 25.8N 72.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 26.1N 74.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 26.5N 75.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 26.7N 77.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 26.9N 78.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 27.5N 79.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 29.5N 80.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 32.0N 80.5W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-08-31 08:50

WTNT35 KNHC 310847
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019

...DORIAN CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 72.6W
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests in southern and central Florida should monitor the
progress of Dorian. Watches may be required for portions of the
east coast of Florida later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 72.6 West. Dorian is moving
toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A slower
west-northwestward to westward motion should begin later today and
continue into early next week. On this track, the core of Dorian
should move over the Atlantic well north of the southeastern and
central Bahamas today, be near or over the northwestern Bahamas on
Sunday, and be near the Florida east coast late Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is possible today.
Although fluctuations in intensity are possible early next week,
Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next
few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area across the northwestern Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm
winds beginning tonight.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week:

Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Coastal sections of the southeast United States...6 to 12 inches,
isolated 18 inches.
Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Swells are likely to begin affecting the east-facing shores
of the Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United
States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-08-31 08:49

WTNT25 KNHC 310847
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
0900 UTC SAT AUG 31 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANDROS ISLAND

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DORIAN. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 72.6W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 72.6W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 72.1W

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 26.1N 74.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 26.5N 75.8W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 26.7N 77.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 26.9N 78.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 27.5N 79.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 29.5N 80.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 32.0N 80.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.8N 72.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 31/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2019-08-31 05:37

WTNT35 KNHC 310535
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
200 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019

...WINDS IN DORIAN REMAIN NEAR 140 MPH...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 72.0W
ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests in southern and central Florida should monitor the
progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 72.0 West. Dorian is moving
toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slower
west-northwestward to westward motion should begin later today and
continue into early next week. On this track, the core of Dorian
should move over the Atlantic well north of the southeastern and
central Bahamas today, be near or over the northwestern Bahamas on
Sunday, and be near the Florida east coast late Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is possible today.
Although fluctuations in intensity are possible early next week,
Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next
few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to
105 miles (165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area in the northwestern Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm
winds beginning tonight.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast,the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week:

Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches.
Coastal sections of the southeast United States...6 to 12 inches,
isolated 18 inches.
Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Swells are likely to begin affecting the east-facing shores
of the Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United
States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-08-31 04:01

WTNT82 EGRR 310359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 31.08.2019

HURRICANE DORIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 25.2N 71.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 31.08.2019 0 25.2N 71.1W 987 58
1200UTC 31.08.2019 12 25.9N 73.3W 989 60
0000UTC 01.09.2019 24 26.1N 75.2W 986 63
1200UTC 01.09.2019 36 26.4N 76.7W 979 64
0000UTC 02.09.2019 48 26.5N 77.6W 969 70
1200UTC 02.09.2019 60 26.6N 78.3W 962 69
0000UTC 03.09.2019 72 26.7N 78.5W 950 75
1200UTC 03.09.2019 84 27.0N 78.7W 944 80
0000UTC 04.09.2019 96 28.3N 79.4W 925 95
1200UTC 04.09.2019 108 29.7N 80.4W 930 93
0000UTC 05.09.2019 120 31.3N 79.7W 933 89
1200UTC 05.09.2019 132 33.1N 78.3W 929 92
0000UTC 06.09.2019 144 34.7N 75.4W 934 86

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 12.9N 109.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.09.2019 48 13.4N 110.6W 1002 32
1200UTC 02.09.2019 60 14.4N 112.9W 999 33
0000UTC 03.09.2019 72 15.2N 115.1W 996 35
1200UTC 03.09.2019 84 15.9N 116.9W 992 44
0000UTC 04.09.2019 96 16.1N 118.4W 986 52
1200UTC 04.09.2019 108 16.1N 119.7W 978 60
0000UTC 05.09.2019 120 16.4N 121.5W 970 64
1200UTC 05.09.2019 132 16.6N 123.3W 967 66
0000UTC 06.09.2019 144 17.2N 125.3W 964 70

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 32.8N 60.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.09.2019 108 32.8N 60.2W 1013 26
0000UTC 05.09.2019 120 33.1N 58.2W 1008 36
1200UTC 05.09.2019 132 32.7N 57.4W 1005 32
0000UTC 06.09.2019 144 33.0N 57.5W 1006 31


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 310359

>

2019-08-31 04:01

WTNT80 EGRR 310359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 31.08.2019

HURRICANE DORIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 25.2N 71.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 31.08.2019 25.2N 71.1W MODERATE
12UTC 31.08.2019 25.9N 73.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2019 26.1N 75.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.09.2019 26.4N 76.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.09.2019 26.5N 77.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.09.2019 26.6N 78.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.09.2019 26.7N 78.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.09.2019 27.0N 78.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.09.2019 28.3N 79.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 04.09.2019 29.7N 80.4W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.09.2019 31.3N 79.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2019 33.1N 78.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2019 34.7N 75.4W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 12.9N 109.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 02.09.2019 13.4N 110.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.09.2019 14.4N 112.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.09.2019 15.2N 115.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2019 15.9N 116.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY