Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for JERRY-19
in Bermuda,Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.




Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 252038
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

Multiple scatterometer passes over Jerry indicate that the cyclone
no longer has sustained tropical-storm-force winds. Therefore
Jerry is now a remnant low, and the Bermuda Weather Service has
discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda. However, wind
gusts to tropical storm force are still possible on the island
during the next few hours, especially at elevated observing sites.
Based on the scatterometer data, the current intensity is estimated
to be 30 kt. The low-cloud swirl is becoming less well-defined, and
since the system will continue moving through a hostile environment
of strong shear and dry mid-level air, steady weakening is likely.
The cyclone should dissipate in 2-3 days. The NHC intensity
forecast is close to the latest intensity model consensus.

The system is moving east-northeastward at a slightly faster clip,
or 070/10 kt. A gradual turn to the east and east-southeast is
forecast as the cyclone moves along the southern edge of the band of
mid-latitude westerlies, and then turns to the right along the
northeastern periphery of a subtropical anticyclone before
dissipating.

This is the last advisory on Jerry.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 32.2N 65.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 26/0600Z 32.8N 63.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 26/1800Z 33.7N 61.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 27/0600Z 34.7N 59.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/1800Z 35.0N 56.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 252038
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JERRY NO LONGER HAS SUSTAINED TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.2N 65.6W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry
was located near latitude 32.2 North, longitude 65.6 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 12
mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the east and east-southeast is
expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the
center of Jerry is expected to pass near or over Bermuda in a few
hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are possible over Bermuda
during the next several hours, especially at elevated sites.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 inch or less of rainfall
across Bermuda through tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry will continue to affect Bermuda
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 252037
TCMAT5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
2100 UTC WED SEP 25 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 65.6W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 65.6W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 66.1W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 32.8N 63.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 33.7N 61.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 34.7N 59.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 35.0N 56.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.2N 65.6W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 251749
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 33A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
200 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

...JERRY APPROACHING BERMUDA BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.1N 66.1W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry
was located near latitude 32.1 North, longitude 66.1 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 12
mph (19 km/h). A continued east-northeasterly motion is expected
for the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the east on
Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to
pass near or over Bermuda later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by this
afternoon and could continue through this evening.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 inch or less of rainfall
across Bermuda through tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry will continue to affect Bermuda
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 251459
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

Jerry remains devoid of deep convection in an environment of dry
mid-level air and strong westerly shear. Data from a new
scatterometer pass indicate that the maximum winds are no more
than 35 kt, and even that value could be generous. The system
should remain in a hostile environment for the next few days, and
simulated satellite imagery from the global models suggest that no
significant deep convection will redevelop within it. Therefore
the official intensity forecast calls for the cyclone to gradually
spin down over the next 2-3 days. The NHC intensity forecast is
just slightly below the model consensus.

The cyclone has turned toward the east-northeast with some increase
in forward speed, and the initial motion estimate is 060/8 kt.
Jerry should continue to move east-northeastward, to the south of
the main belt of mid-latitude westerlies, for the next day or two.
Later in the forecast period, the weak cyclone is expected to turn
east-southeastward along the northeastern periphery of a subtropical
high pressure area, and dissipate. The official track forecast
continues to follow the NOAA corrected consensus guidance rather
closely.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda later today.
Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of Bermuda during
the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening rip
currents. See products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for
more information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 32.0N 66.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 26/0000Z 32.6N 65.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 26/1200Z 33.4N 62.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 27/0000Z 34.3N 60.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/1200Z 34.9N 58.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/1200Z 33.8N 54.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 251459
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Advisory Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

...WEAKENING JERRY APPROACHING BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.0N 66.8W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry
was located near latitude 32.0 North, longitude 66.8 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 10
mph (17 km/h). A continued east-northeasterly motion is expected
for the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the east on
Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to
pass near or over Bermuda later today.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Continued gradual weakening is expected during the
next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by this
afternoon and could continue through this evening.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 inch or less of rainfall
across Bermuda through tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry will continue to affect Bermuda
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 251458
TCMAT5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
1500 UTC WED SEP 25 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 66.8W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 120SE 40SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 66.8W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 67.4W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 32.6N 65.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 100SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 33.4N 62.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 34.3N 60.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 34.9N 58.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 33.8N 54.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.0N 66.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 25/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 251145
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 32A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
800 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

...JERRY EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR BERMUDA LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.0N 67.4W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry
was located near latitude 32.0 North, longitude 67.4 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11
km/h). A continued northeasterly motion is expected through today,
followed by a turn toward the east on Thursday. On the forecast
track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda later
today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by this
afternoon and could continue through this evening.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 inch or less of rainfall
across Bermuda through tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry will continue to affect Bermuda
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 250854
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

Jerry has lacked organized deep convection since around 1500 UTC
yesterday. It is therefore now designated as a post-tropical
cyclone. However, a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for
Bermuda, and advisories will continue to be issued on Jerry until it
no longer poses any threat to the island.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft continued to fly
through Jerry after the last advisory. The plane reported that
Jerry's wind field has become quite asymmetric, with no
tropical-storm-force winds in the western half of the cyclone. That
said, on its last pass through the southeast quadrant of the cyclone
the plane reported max flight level winds of 55 kt at 925 mb and
believable SFMR winds of 40 kt. The intensity of Jerry is therefore
maintained at 40 kt for this advisory. With no deep convection to
sustain it, the cyclone should gradually spin down during the next
few days. The dynamical models indicate that Jerry will dissipate in
about 4 days and the NHC forecast does as well.

A mid-latitude trough to the north has caused Jerry to turn
northeastward, and the initial motion estimate is 055/6 kt. The
models are in good agreement that the post-tropical low will
continue generally northeastward today and tomorrow, steered by
low-level southwesterly flow. On this track, the cyclone will pass
very near Bermuda later today. The models are in excellent agreement
on the track of Jerry, and only small adjustments were made to the
previous NHC track forecast.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda later today.
Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of Bermuda during
the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening rip
currents. See products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for
more information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 31.8N 67.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 25/1800Z 32.3N 66.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 26/0600Z 33.0N 64.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 26/1800Z 33.9N 61.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/0600Z 34.6N 59.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/0600Z 34.0N 55.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 250853
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Advisory Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

...JERRY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.8N 67.9W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry
was located near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 67.9 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11
km/h). A continued northeasterly motion is expected through today,
followed by a turn toward the east on Thursday. On the forecast
track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda later
today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by this
afternoon and could continue through this evening.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 inch or less of rainfall
across Bermuda through tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry will continue to affect Bermuda
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 250852
TCMAT5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
0900 UTC WED SEP 25 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 67.9W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 67.9W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 68.4W

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 32.3N 66.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 33.0N 64.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 33.9N 61.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 34.6N 59.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 34.0N 55.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 67.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 25/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 250559
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 31A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
200 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

...HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORT THAT JERRY IS MAINTAINING ITS WINDS
FOR NOW...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.6N 68.4W
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 31.6 North, longitude 68.4 West. Jerry is
moving toward the northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A continued
northeastward motion at a slight faster forward speed is expected
this morning, followed by a turn to the east-northeast by tonight.
On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near
Bermuda later today.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that
Jerry's maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days
and Jerry could become a post-tropical cyclone later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km),
mainly to the east of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 997 mb (29.44 inches)


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda later
today.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 2 inches of rainfall
across Bermuda through tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry will continue to affect Bermuda
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 250240
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

Dry air and shear have continued to take a toll on Jerry, and the
cyclone has been devoid of deep convection for about 12 hours. An
Air Force reconnaissance aircraft that has been in the storm this
evening measured peak flight-level winds of 43 kt, and SFMR winds of
34 to 36 kt. The aircraft has not sampled the entire circulation
yet, so the initial intensity has been lowered, perhaps
conservatively, to 40 kt. Increasing shear and dry air that is
being entrained into the circulation from the west are likely to
continue to contribute to Jerry's gradual spin down over the next
couple of days. If deep convection does not return overnight, Jerry
could become a post-tropical cyclone as early as tomorrow morning.
Regardless of the status of the system, it still has the potential
to bring tropical-storm-force winds to Bermuda and advisories would
continue as long as the Tropical Storm Warning is needed for that
island. The global models completely dissipate Jerry in a little
more than 3 days, and so does the new NHC forecast.

Jerry has turned northeastward but continues to move very slowly, or
025/4 kt. The cyclone should pick up its pace tonight and Wednesday
as a broad trough passes to the north and the system gets caught
within the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies. As Jerry
get increasingly weaker it is forecast to again slow down and turn
southeastward before dissipation occurs. The official track
forecast is not very different than the previous advisory, and is
closest to the TCVN multi-model consensus.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda beginning
on Wednesday. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast
of Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause
life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda
Weather Service for more information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 31.4N 68.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 32.2N 67.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 33.0N 64.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 33.8N 62.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/0000Z 34.4N 59.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/0000Z 34.0N 56.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 250239
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

...AIRCRAFT FINDS JERRY A LITTLE WEAKER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.4N 68.7W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 68.7 West. Jerry is
moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A
northeastward motion at a slight faster forward speed is expected
overnight, followed by a turn to the east-northeast on Wednesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near
Bermuda on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days, and Jerry
is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone within the next day
or two.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches)

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 2 inches of rainfall
across Bermuda through Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry will continue to affect Bermuda
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 250239
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
0300 UTC WED SEP 25 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 68.7W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......130NE 110SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 68.7W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 68.9W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 32.2N 67.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 33.0N 64.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 33.8N 62.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 34.4N 59.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 34.0N 56.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.4N 68.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 25/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 242342
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 30A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
800 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

...JERRY MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.3N 68.9W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 31.3 North, longitude 68.9 West. Jerry is
moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn to
the northeast is expected tonight, followed by a turn to the
east-northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by
early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall
across Bermuda through Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along
the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 242049
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

Jerry no longer looks like either a tropical or a subtropical
cyclone, since it lacks deep convection within a couple of hundred
miles of the center. This is likely due to a combination of strong
shear and drier air. The advisory intensity of 45 kt is based on
SFMR-observed surface winds from earlier Hurricane Hunter
observations. Another Hurricane Hunter plane is scheduled to
investigate Jerry in a few hours, and given the lack of convection,
will likely find a weaker cyclone. The numerical guidance indicates
that strong shear and increasingly drier air will affect Jerry over
the next few days. Therefore, additional weakening is likely, and
the system will probably become a remnant low in 72 hours or less,
and completely dissipate by the end of the period. This is also
shown by the global models.

Jerry has moved quite slowly today, and the estimated initial
motion is just east of northward, or 010/5 kt. Jerry should pass
through a weakness in the subtropical ridge tonight. A broad
mid-latitude trough to the north of the cyclone should soon cause
the system to turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward
speed. Later in the period, the cyclone should turn south of east
while moving around the northeastern periphery of a subtropical
ridge. The official track forecast is close to the previous one,
and leans toward the corrected consensus model guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda by early
Wednesday. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast
of Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause
life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda
Weather Service for more information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 31.1N 69.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 31.9N 67.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 32.9N 65.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 33.7N 62.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 34.4N 60.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 34.5N 56.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/1800Z 33.0N 54.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 242048
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

...JERRY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.1N 69.0W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 31.1 North, longitude 69.0 West. Jerry is
moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn to the
northeast is expected by tonight, followed by a turn to the
east-northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by
early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall
across Bermuda through Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along
the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 242048
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
2100 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 69.0W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......160NE 150SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 120SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 69.0W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 69.1W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 31.9N 67.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 32.9N 65.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 33.7N 62.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 34.4N 60.1W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 34.5N 56.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 33.0N 54.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.1N 69.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 25/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 241735
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 29A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
200 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

...JERRY WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 69.1W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 010 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 69.1 West. Jerry is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the
northeast is expected by tonight, followed by a turn to the
east-northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda on Wednesday.

Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that the
maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by
early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall
across Bermuda through Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along
the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 241445
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

Jerry's interaction with an upper-level trough has resulted in a
system that is less tropical in appearance, with a lack of
central convection and most of the heavier showers displaced
to the west and well southeast of the center. In fact, the cyclone
looks somewhat subtropical at this time. For simplicity, however,
we will continue to carry Jerry as a tropical storm. Flight-level
winds from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter plane still
support an intensity of 50 kt. Jerry will be encountering an
increasingly unfavorable environment during the next few days, with
the ambient air mass becoming drier and vertical shear becoming
stronger. The official intensity forecast calls for continued
weakening and degeneration to a remnant low later in the forecast
period. This is similar to the consensus of the model guidance.

Based on fixes from the Hurricane Hunters, the center has moved a
little to the left of previous estimates, and the initial motion
estimate is 350/6 kt. There are no significant changes to the
track forecast philosophy, however. Over the next couple of days
Jerry should turn northeastward and then east-northeastward in the
flow to the south of a broad mid-latitude trough. Later in the
period, the weakening cyclone should move eastward to
east-southeastward on the northeast side of a subtropical
anticyclone. The official track forecast is close to the previous
one and in general agreement with the corrected multi-model
consensus guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda by tonight or
early Wednesday. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast
of Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause
life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda
Weather Service for more information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 30.8N 69.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 31.7N 68.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 32.6N 66.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 33.5N 64.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 34.2N 61.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 35.0N 57.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/1200Z 34.5N 54.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 241444
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

...JERRY EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO BERMUDA
TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 69.3W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude
30.8 North, longitude 69.3 West. Jerry is moving toward the north
near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the northeast is expected by
tonight, followed by a turn to the east-northeast on Wednesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near
Bermuda on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by
early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall
across Bermuda through Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along
the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island
during the next few days. Swells will affect portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico for another day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 241443
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 69.3W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......160NE 150SE 20SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 69.3W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 69.1W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 31.7N 68.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 20SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 32.6N 66.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 33.5N 64.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 20SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 34.2N 61.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 35.0N 57.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 34.5N 54.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N 69.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 24/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 241159
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 28A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
800 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

...JERRY EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.5N 68.9W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 30.5 North, longitude 68.9 West. Jerry is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn to the
northeast is expected by tonight, followed by a turn to the east-
northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry
is expected to pass near Bermuda on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by
Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall
across Bermuda through Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along
the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island
during the next few days. Swells will affect portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico for another day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 240830
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

Conventional satellite imagery and a series of recent microwave
images show that Jerry's cloud pattern has begun to deteriorate.
Diminishing deep convection is now confined to the north portion of
the cyclone. A blend of the subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS respectively,
support decreasing the initial intensity to 50 kt.

Strong vertical shear and an intruding dry, stable thermodynamic
atmosphere associated with a high amplitude mid- to upper-level
trough moving off of the east coast of the U.S. is finally taking
its toll on Jerry. Weakening has begun, and the statistical-
dynamical intensity guidance, as well as the large-scale
deterministic models show the aforementioned inhibiting environment
persisting through the entire 5 day period. Consequently, further
weakening is expected, and Jerry should degenerate into a remnant
low in 4 days, with dissipation occuring over the weekend, and this
scenario is consistent with global model forecasts.

The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 360/7 kt. Jerry
will continue moving within a large break in the subtropical
ridge through most of today, then turn northeastward later
tonight within the mid-tropospheric southwesterly flow produced by
the previously mentioned approaching trough. Around mid-period,
Jerry should move east-northeastward within the deep-layer
mid-latitude zonal flow, then a little to the south of east in the
peripheral flow of the subtropical high anchored to the southwest of
the cyclone. The NHC track forecast is somewhat slower beyond the
24 hour period than the previous advisory to align more with the
reliable TVCA multi-model consensus.

Wind radii were adjusted based on 0150 UTC MetOp scatterometer
data, and the forecast wind radii for the 24 and 36 hour periods
are based on the global and regional model RVCN consensus.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda later today.
Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of Bermuda during
the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening rip
currents. See products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for
more information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 29.8N 68.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 30.6N 68.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 31.7N 67.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 32.7N 64.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 33.6N 61.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 34.9N 56.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/0600Z 35.0N 54.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 240829
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

...WEAKENING JERRY EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD BY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 68.4W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 68.4 West. Jerry is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn to the
northeast is expected by tonight, followed by a turn to the east-
northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry
is expected to pass near Bermuda on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Further weakening is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by
Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall
across Bermuda through Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along
the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island
during the next few days. Swells will affect portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico for another day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 240829
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 68.4W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......160NE 150SE 20SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 68.4W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 68.4W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 30.6N 68.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 20SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 31.7N 67.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 32.7N 64.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 20SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 33.6N 61.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 34.9N 56.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 35.0N 54.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N 68.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 24/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 240527
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
200 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

...JERRY BEGINS WEAKENING OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 68.4W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...90 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 29.5 North, longitude 68.4 West. Jerry is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the
northeast is expected today, followed by a turn to the east-
northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry
is expected to pass near Bermuda by early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (90 km/h) with
higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast during the next few
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by
Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall
across Bermuda through Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along
the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island
during the next few days. Swells will affect portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico for another day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 240238
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

Surface and flight-level data from Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft investigating Jerry this evening indicate that
Jerry's maximum sustained winds are holding steady at 55 kt. The
measured minimum central pressure of 991 mb is also unchanged.
Therefore, the initial intensity for this advisory remains at 55 kt.

Jerry is currently moving within a rather harsh environment produced
by a high amplitude mid- to upper-level trough situated between the
cyclone and the eastern seaboard of the United States. The
statistical-dynamical Decay SHIPS from both the GFS and ECMWF show
the moderate westerly shear and the inhibiting thermodynamic
environment persisting through the entire forecast. Therefore,
gradual weakening is forecast. The NHC forecast is basically an
update of the previous advisory and is based on the NOAA HFIP HCCA
intensity consensus.

The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 350/6 kt. Jerry
will continue moving within a large break in the subtropical
ridge during the next 12 hours or so, and then turn northeastward
within the mid-tropospheric southwesterly flow produced by the
aforementioned trough. Around mid-period, Jerry should move
east-northeastward within the deep-layer mid-latitude zonal flow,
then a little to the south of east in the peripheral flow of the
subtropical high anchored to the southwest of the cyclone. The
official forecast is a little to the south of the previous one
beyond day 3, and lies between the TVCN simple consensus and the
GFS and ECMWF global models.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda by late
Tuesday. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of
Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause
life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda
Weather Service for more information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 29.2N 68.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 30.1N 68.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 31.2N 67.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 32.4N 65.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 33.3N 62.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 34.9N 56.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 35.0N 52.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 33.9N 49.6W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 240237
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

...JERRY MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.2N 68.3W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 68.3 West. Jerry is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion should continue through tonight. A turn to the
northeast is expected on Tuesday, followed by a turn to the
east-northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda by early Wednesday.

Recent data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Jerry's maximum sustained winds remain near
65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast
during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 991 mb (29.26 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by
Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall
across Bermuda through Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along
the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island
during the next few days. Swells will affect portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico for another day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 240236
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 68.3W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 150SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 68.3W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 68.3W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 30.1N 68.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 31.2N 67.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 32.4N 65.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 33.3N 62.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 34.9N 56.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 35.0N 52.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 33.9N 49.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.2N 68.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 24/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 240004 CCA
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 26A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
800 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

...JERRY CONTINUING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 68.3W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 68.3 West. Jerry is
moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this
general motion should continue through tonight. A turn to the
northeast is expected on Tuesday, followed by a turn to the
east-northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda by early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 991 mb (29.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by
Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall
across Bermuda through Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along
the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island
during the next few days. Swells will affect portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico for another day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 232355
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 26A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
800 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

...JERRY CONTINUING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 68.4W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 68.4 West. Jerry is
moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this
general motion should continue through tonight. A turn to the
northeast is expected on Tuesday, followed by a turn to the
east-northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda by early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 991 mb (29.26 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by
Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall
across Bermuda through Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along
the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island
during the next few days. Swells will affect portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico for another day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 232032
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

The low-level center of Jerry became fully exposed to the west of
the convection earlier today. Later, however, new convection formed
near or just north of the center. The storm continues to be
affected by strong westerly shear associated with a sharp
upper-level trough over the southwestern Atlantic. The current
intensity estimate remains 55 kt, which is consistent with data
from an earlier ASCAT overpass. The dynamical guidance shows only
a brief relaxation of the shear over the next several days, and the
ambient air mass becomes quite dry in 3 to 5 days. Therefore, slow
but steady weakening is forecast. This is close to the latest
simple and corrected intensity model consensus predictions.

Jerry has slowed its forward speed today and the motion is now just
5 kt toward the north-northwest. The tropical cyclone should
continue to move through a weakness in the subtropical ridge
tonight, and then turn toward the north and northeast under the
influence of a mid-tropospheric trough moving off the northeast
U.S. coast. In 2 to 4 days, Jerry is expected to move just north of
east while embedded in nearly zonal flow. By the end of the
forecast period, some of the models now show a slightly south of
east motion as the cyclone moves along the northeast periphery of a
subtropical anticyclone. The official track forecast is slower than
the previous one, especially during the latter part of the period.
This is fairly close to the latest corrected consensus guidance,
HCCA.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda by late
Tuesday. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of
Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause
life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda
Weather Service for more information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 28.4N 68.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 29.6N 68.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 30.9N 68.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 32.1N 66.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 33.3N 64.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 35.0N 58.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 36.0N 53.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 35.0N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 232031
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

...JERRY MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 68.3W
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 68.3 West. Jerry is
moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this
general motion should continue tonight. A turn to the northeast is
expected on Tuesday, followed by a turn to the east-northeast on
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected
to pass near Bermuda by early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by
Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall
across Bermuda through Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along
the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island
during the next few days. Swells will affect portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico for another day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 232030
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
2100 UTC MON SEP 23 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 68.3W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 150SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 68.3W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 68.2W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 29.6N 68.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 30.9N 68.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 32.1N 66.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 33.3N 64.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 35.0N 58.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 36.0N 53.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 35.0N 50.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.4N 68.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 24/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 231751
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 25A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
200 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

...JERRY BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 68.2W
ABOUT 345 MI...550 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 68.2 West. Jerry is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion should continue today. A turn to the north is
expected tonight followed by a turn to the northeast on Tuesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near
Bermuda by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by late
Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall
across Bermuda through Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along
the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island
during the next few days. Swells will affect portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico for another day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 231441
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

Strong shear associated with an upper-level trough off the southeast
U.S. coast continues to affect Jerry, and the low-level center is
exposed to the west-southwest of the main convective mass.
Observations from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicated that the intensity remains near 55 kt. However,
if the current sheared state persists, then a weakening trend is
likely to commence soon. For now, the official forecast will only
show a very slow weakening over the next few days. This prediction
is somewhat higher than the intensity model consensus. It should be
noted that experience has shown that tropical cyclones at
subtropical latitudes tend to be more resilient to shear than those
in the deep tropics.

Jerry has slowed its forward speed and is now moving north-
northwestward at around 6 kt. The storm will continue passing
through a break in the subtropical ridge through tonight. On
Tuesday, a trough moving off the northeast U.S. coast will cause
Jerry to turn northward. Within a couple of days, the trough
should steer the tropical cyclone northeastward at a faster forward
speed. In days 3-5, Jerry should move east-northeastward to
eastward while embedded in the southern portion of the mid-latitude
westerlies. The official track forecast is similar to the previous
one and close to the model consensus.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda by late
Tuesday. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of
Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause
life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda
Weather Service for more information.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 28.1N 68.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 29.2N 68.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 30.4N 68.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 31.8N 67.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 33.3N 65.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 35.8N 58.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 37.0N 53.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 37.0N 48.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 231441
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

...JERRY MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 68.0W
ABOUT 345 MI...560 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 28.1 North, longitude 68.0 West. Jerry is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion should continue today. A turn to the north is
expected tonight followed by a turn to the northeast on Tuesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near
Bermuda by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by late
Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall
across Bermuda through Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along
the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island
during the next few days. Swells will affect portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico for another day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 231440
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
1500 UTC MON SEP 23 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 68.0W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 150SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 90SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 68.0W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 67.9W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 29.2N 68.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 30.4N 68.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 31.8N 67.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 33.3N 65.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 35.8N 58.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 60SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 37.0N 53.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 37.0N 48.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.1N 68.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 23/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 231151
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 24A
NWS Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
800 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

...JERRY SLOWS AS IT CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 67.7W
ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Bermuda has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the watch area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 67.7 West. Jerry is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion should continue today. A turn to the north is
expected Monday night followed by a turn to the northeast on
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected
to pass near Bermuda by Tuesday night.

Recent data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft
indicate that Jerry's maximum sustained winds remain near
65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected
during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 991 mb (29.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by late
Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall
across Bermuda through Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along
the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island
during the next few days. Swells will affect portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico for another day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 230854
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

Overnight the center of Jerry became partially exposed, a result of
strong westerly shear. However, a new burst of very deep
convection has recently formed and obscured the low-level center
again. The initial wind speed is held at 55 kt, which is well
supported by earlier ASCAT data, and another reconaissance mission
is scheduled for this morning to take a closer look.

The current shear is forecast to slightly weaken during the next
few days as the storm moves over progressively cooler waters with
drier air in the mid-levels. There will also be a mid-latitude
trough that will be near Jerry in a day or so, but the
evidence is piling up that the trough interaction will be a neutral
or negative factor for the storm. The intensity forecast is held
almost the same as the previous one, following the corrected-
consensus guidance. The cyclone could be close to dissipating
around day 5 due to continuation of the shear and cold water if the
latest global models are correct, so the forecast is lowered at
that time.

Jerry is moving north-northwestward at 8 kt, and that general
motion should continue for about another day as it remains steered
by a mid-level ridge to its northeast. A sharp turn toward the
northeast and then the east is forecast after that when the trough
reaches the system causing it to become embedded in the
mid-latitude westerlies. There are some substantial speed
differences in the models, partially due to the aforementioned
trough interaction, but most of the models are still in agreement
with the above scenario. The new forecast is close to the previous
one, adjusted somewhat to the south at longer range.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical-storm-force winds are possible on Bermuda by late
Tuesday. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of
Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause
life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda
Weather Service for more information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 27.8N 67.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 28.6N 68.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 30.1N 68.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 31.3N 68.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 32.6N 66.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 35.5N 60.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 37.0N 54.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 28/0600Z 37.0N 48.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 230842
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

...JERRY CONTINUES MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 67.7W
ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 67.7 West. Jerry is
moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
general motion should continue today. A turn to the north is
expected Monday night followed by a turn to the northeast on
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to
pass near Bermuda by Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall
across Bermuda through Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along
the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island
during the next few days. Swells will affect portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico for another day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 230835
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
0900 UTC MON SEP 23 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 67.7W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 150SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 90SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 67.7W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 67.6W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 28.6N 68.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 30.1N 68.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 31.3N 68.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 32.6N 66.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 35.5N 60.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 60SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 37.0N 54.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 37.0N 48.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.8N 67.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 23/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 230530
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 23A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
200 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

...JERRY MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 67.5W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 67.5 West. Jerry is
moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
general motion should continue today. A turn to the north is
expected Monday night followed by a turn to the northeast on
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to
pass near Bermuda by Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall
across Bermuda through Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along
the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island
during the next few days. Swells will affect portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico for another day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 230235
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

Jerry has been relatively steady state this evening. Microwave
data indicate that the low-level center of the storm is located near
the western edge of the main area of deep convection due to strong
westerly wind shear. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters investigated
the storm a few hours ago, and a combination of the flight-level
wind and dropsonde data suggest that the initial intensity is still
55 kt. The minimum pressure measured by the aircraft has also been
steady at 993 mb. The initial wind radii have been modified
slightly based on the aircraft data and a recent ASCAT pass.

The tropical storm is currently located in a region of strong
westerly wind shear to the southeast of a mid- to upper-level
trough. The shear is expected to remain relatively strong during
the next several days, which in combination with drier air and
decreasing SSTs along the forecast track should cause gradual
weakening during the next several days. The NHC intensity forecast
is a little lower than the previous one to become in better
agreement with the latest HCCA and IVCN guidance.

Jerry is moving north-northwestward at 9 kt, and that general
motion should continue for about another day as it remains steered
by a mid-level ridge to its northeast. A sharp turn toward the
northeast and then the east is predicted after that when the trough
reaches the system causing it to become embedded in the
mid-latitude westerlies. There remains a fair amount of spread in
the model tracks, especially from days 3 to 5. The NHC track
forecast is a tad to the right of the previous one, leaning toward
the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF models.

Key Messages:

1. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Bermuda. Tropical-
storm-force winds are possible on Bermuda by late Tuesday.

2. Large swells are expected to affect the coast of Bermuda during
the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening rip
currents. See products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for
more information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 27.4N 67.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 28.4N 67.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 29.8N 68.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 31.2N 68.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 32.4N 67.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 35.0N 61.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 37.3N 54.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 38.5N 48.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 230234
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

...JERRY HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 67.2W
ABOUT 370 MI...590 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 27.4 North, longitude 67.2 West. Jerry is
moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this
general motion should continue on Monday. A turn to the north is
expected Monday night followed by a turn to the northeast on
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected
to pass near Bermuda by Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall
across Bermuda through Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along
the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island
during the next few days. Swells will affect portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico for another day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 230234
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
0300 UTC MON SEP 23 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 67.2W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 100SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 90SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 67.2W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 67.1W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 28.4N 67.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 110SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 29.8N 68.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 31.2N 68.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 32.4N 67.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 35.0N 61.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 60SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 37.3N 54.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 38.5N 48.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.4N 67.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 23/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 222037
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

Jerry continues to struggle to become better organized in an
environment of moderate westerly vertical shear. The low-level
center is near the western side of the main area of deep
convection, and the overall cloud pattern remains rather
ragged-looking. Flight-level, SFMR-observed, and Doppler wind data
from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the intensity
remains near 55 kt. The dynamical guidance shows that the shear
will remain rather strong throughout much of the forecast period,
so the official forecast shows little change in strength for the
next couple of days followed by gradual weakening. This is a
little above the intensity model consensus.

The motion is still north-northwestward or 345/8 kt. Jerry
continues to move through a weakness in the subtropical ridge. In a
couple of days, a mid-latitude trough moving off the northeast U.S.
coast should cause the storm to turn north-northeastward to
northeastward with a gradual increase in forward speed in the
latter part of the forecast period, Jerry is likely to move
east-northeastward at a faster speed, following the mid-level
westerly flow. The official forecast is a bit slower than the
previous one and leans toward the corrected dynamical model
consensus, HCCA.


Key Messages:

1. The risk of tropical-storm-force winds on Bermuda is increasing,
with Jerry forecast to pass near the island Tuesday night and
Wednesday. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system may
have on Bermuda, but interests there should monitor the progress of
Jerry. A Tropical Storm Watch could be issued tonight for Bermuda.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 26.7N 66.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 27.7N 67.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 29.0N 67.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 30.4N 68.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 31.8N 67.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 34.4N 63.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 37.0N 56.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 38.5N 50.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 222036
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

...JERRY SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 66.9W
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Jerry.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 66.9 West. Jerry is
moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn
toward the north is expected on Monday, followed by a turn toward
the north-northeast on Tuesday, and toward the northeast on
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected
to pass near Bermuda Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 222036
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JERRY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 66.9W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 30SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 66.9W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 66.8W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 27.7N 67.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 29.0N 67.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 30.4N 68.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 31.8N 67.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 34.4N 63.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 110SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 37.0N 56.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 38.5N 50.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.7N 66.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 221443
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

Jerry is not well organized on satellite images, with a
ragged-looking CDO and limited banding features over the eastern
semicircle. Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate a slight fall in central pressure but the maximum winds
remain near 55 kt. The storm is under the influence of westerly
shear, and the numerical guidance does not indicated that this
shear will relax during the forecast period. Therefore, only slight
strengthening is allowed for in the official forecast. This is a
little above most of the model guidance.

Jerry continues to move north-northwestward, or 340/9 kt, through a
weakness in the subtropical ridge. A mid-tropospheric trough
moving off the northeast U.S. coast in a couple of days should
cause the cyclone to turn north-northeastward to northeastward
with some acceleration later in the forecast period. The official
track forecast is close to the previous one and is also similar to
the corrected consensus model guidance.


Key Messages:

1. The risk of tropical-storm-force winds on Bermuda is increasing,
with Jerry forecast to pass near the island Tuesday and Wednesday.
It is too soon to determine what impacts the system may have on
Bermuda, but interests there should monitor the progress of Jerry.
A Tropical Storm Watch could be issued later today for Bermuda.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 25.7N 66.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 26.9N 67.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 28.2N 67.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 29.5N 67.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 31.0N 68.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 35.0N 63.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 40.0N 54.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 45.0N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 221442
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

...JERRY CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.7N 66.6W
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Jerry.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 66.6 West. Jerry is
moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn
toward the north is expected on Monday, followed by a turn toward
the northeast late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda late Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day
or so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter observations is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 221441
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
1500 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JERRY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 66.6W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 75SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 66.6W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 66.5W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 26.9N 67.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 28.2N 67.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 29.5N 67.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 31.0N 68.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 35.0N 63.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 110SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 40.0N 54.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 45.0N 45.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N 66.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 220901
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

A very large burst of deep convection has formed near Jerry, but
there is no sign from recent microwave data that it is causing any
significant change in structure. The center still appears
to be on the northwestern edge of the deep convection, which is
consistent with a tropical cyclone undergoing moderate-to-strong
northwesterly shear. The initial wind speed is held at 55 kt, a bit
above the ASCAT pass from several hours ago, but at that time the
center was exposed, so it is reasonable to think the system is a bit
stronger than shown in that pass. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft should investigate the system around 1200 UTC.

Overall, there are a lot of mixed signals with the future strength
of Jerry. While the storm should remain over very warm waters, any
relaxation of the current shear isn't expected to last very long,
and the consensus of the models is that an expected mid-latitude
trough interaction should lead to much weakening or strengthening.
Thus, little change in strength is shown throughout the period,
similar to the last forecast, and only slight weakening is shown at
long range as Jerry undergoes the first stages of extratropical
transition.

The initial motion is slower to the north-northwest, 330/10 kt.
The biggest change from the past advisory is shifting the forecast
track westward about half a degree in about 48 hours, with more of
the models showing that the aforementioned trough interaction will
steer the storm more to the left. Jerry should then accelelerate
to the northeast ahead of the next mid-latitude trough, and the
forecast track is a little faster at long range.


Key Messages:

1. The risk of tropical-storm-force winds on Bermuda is increasing,
with Jerry forecast to pass near the island Tuesday and Wednesday.
It is too soon to determine what impacts the system may have on
Bermuda, but interests there should monitor the progress of Jerry.
A Tropical Storm Watch could be issued later today for Bermuda.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 25.0N 66.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 26.3N 67.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 27.6N 68.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 29.0N 68.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 30.4N 68.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 34.0N 65.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 39.0N 57.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 43.0N 47.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 220900
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

...JERRY TURNS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 66.9W
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Jerry.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 66.9 West. Jerry is
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn
toward the north is expected on Monday, followed by a turn toward
the northeast late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda late Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 220859
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JERRY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 66.9W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 66.9W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 66.6W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 26.3N 67.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 27.6N 68.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 29.0N 68.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 30.4N 68.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 34.0N 65.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 110SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 39.0N 57.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 43.0N 47.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 66.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 220239
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 21 2019

Jerry's center is still exposed to the northwest of the bulk of the
deep convection, although a new burst of thunderstorms is just now
developing just to the southeast of the center. With no
significant change to the storm's structure, the initial intensity
is held at 55 kt, which matches a blend of final-T and CI numbers
from TAFB and SAB. UW-CIMSS is depicting 15-20 kt of westerly
shear over Jerry at the moment, although the analysis suggests that
the cyclone could sneak into a slightly lower-shear environment
during the next 12-24 hours. After that time, however, Jerry is
expected to interact with a mid- to upper-level trough, putting the
system under counterbalancing influences of strong shear but
stronger divergence aloft. Because of these conditions, only small
fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next 4 days or
so. Jerry will be bumping up against a baroclinic zone while
interacting with the trough, and it's likely that extratropical
transition will at least commence while this system is over the
western Atlantic. At this point, however, that transition is not
expected to be complete before the end of the 5-day forecast period.

The initial motion is northwestward, or 325/13 kt. Jerry is still
expected to continue recurving around the subtropical ridge,
interact with the western Atlantic trough in about 48 hours, and
then become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies from day 3
onward. Except for a slight westward kink in the track between
48-72, resulting from Jerry's expected interaction with the trough,
little change in the NHC track forecast was required from the
previous one.


Key Messages:

1. The risk of tropical-storm-force winds on Bermuda is increasing,
with Jerry forecast to pass near the island Tuesday and Wednesday.
It is too soon to determine what impacts the system may have on
Bermuda, but interests there should monitor the progress of Jerry.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 24.1N 66.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 25.4N 67.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 26.7N 67.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 28.0N 68.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 29.4N 68.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 32.6N 66.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 36.8N 60.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 40.8N 54.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 220237
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 21 2019

...JERRY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 66.3W
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Jerry.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 66.3 West. Jerry is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward
the north-northwest and north is expected Sunday and Monday,
followed by a turn toward the northeast late Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near
Bermuda late Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next
several days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 220237
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
0300 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JERRY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 66.3W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 66.3W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 66.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 25.4N 67.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 26.7N 67.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 28.0N 68.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 29.4N 68.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 32.6N 66.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 70SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 36.8N 60.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 40.8N 54.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.1N 66.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 212050
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 PM AST Sat Sep 21 2019

Jerry has become quite disorganized this afternoon. The low-level
center is exposed to the northwest of a small area of persistent
deep convection. The NOAA G-IV aircraft, which is flying a research
mission in and around the tropical storm, measured a minimum
pressure of 1004 mb with 17 kt of wind, implying that the minimum
pressure of Jerry has increased since this morning. However, ASCAT
data from a couple hours after an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter
plane completed its mission into Jerry showed that the maximum winds
were still 50-55 kt. The max winds are therefore conservatively held
at 55 kt for this advisory.

Only minor adjustments were made to the NHC intensity forecast, and
users should not focus on the 5 kt difference between a tropical
storm and hurricane, especially at 72 h and beyond. Based on Jerry's
disheveled appearance, significant strengthening does not seem
imminent. That said, the HWRF and HMON forecast that the cyclone
will quickly restrengthen tonight or tomorrow and become a hurricane
again. If the shear decreases during the next 24 hours, that is
possible, however SHIPS diagnostics suggest that will not happen.
The NHC forecast instead follows the statistical guidance, and keeps
Jerry in a more-or-less steady state through day 5. The cyclone is
still forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves near
Bermuda next week, and there is still a distinct possibility that
Jerry will re-gain hurricane strength at some point during the next
5 days.

All of the models still show Jerry turning northward later today or
on Sunday toward a break in the subtropical ridge, and then turning
northeastward ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough. This
track will bring Jerry close to Bermuda by late Tuesday or early
Wednesday. The model spread has increased a little since the last
advisory, but confidence in this scenario is still high. The NHC
track forecast has been adjusted only slightly to the west and
remains near the multi-model consensus through day 5.

Key Messages:

1. Jerry is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves
near Bermuda late Tuesday or early Wednesday. It is too soon to
determine what impacts the system may have on the island but
interests there should monitor the progress of Jerry.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 23.0N 65.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 24.3N 66.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 25.8N 67.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 27.0N 67.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 28.5N 67.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 31.5N 66.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 35.5N 61.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 40.0N 56.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 212049
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 PM AST Sat Sep 21 2019

...DISORGANIZED JERRY HEADING NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 65.8W
ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM S OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Jerry.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 65.8 West. Jerry is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue tonight. Jerry is forecast to turn
northward on Sunday and then gradually accelerate northeastward
early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little overall change in strength is forecast for the next
several days, but short-term fluctuations in intensity are possible.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure of 1002 mb (29.59 inches) is based on
data from the NOAA G-IV aircraft which is currently flying a
research mission around Jerry.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 212049
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JERRY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 65.8W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 65.8W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 65.5W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 24.3N 66.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 25.8N 67.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 27.0N 67.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 28.5N 67.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 31.5N 66.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 70SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 35.5N 61.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 40.0N 56.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 65.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 211453
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019

An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter plane has investigated Jerry
this morning and found that the tropical storm has become quite
disorganized. The highest flight level winds reported by the plane
at the 700 mb level were 59 kt, which supports holding the
intensity at 55 kt. The highest reliable SFMR winds were lower and
the minimum pressure estimated from the plane data was 999 mb, so
its possible that Jerry's winds are actually a little lower.

Jerry is still moving northwestward, with an initial motion of
315/12 kt. The track guidance is still in very good agreement on
the forecast track for the tropical storm, and only small changes
were made to the track forecast. Jerry should continue
northwestward today, and then turn northward on Sunday toward a
break in the subtropical ridge. By late Monday or Tuesday, Jerry
should turn northeastward and begin to accelerate in that direction
ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough, likely passing near
Bermuda late Tuesday or early Wednesday. The track guidance is
still tightly clustered, especially for the first 72 h of the
forecast, and the NHC forecast is near the consensus throughout the
5-day period.

Because Jerry is not well organized at the moment, no strengthening
is expected in the short term. The NHC forecast now calls for little
change in Jerry's intensity for the next couple days, and I can't
rule out that additional weakening could occur later today or
tomorrow. Most of the guidance suggests that restrengthening could
then occur once Jerry turns northeastward ahead of the
aforementioned mid-latitude trough, perhaps in part due to
baroclinic forcing. Jerry is still forecast to become a hurricane
again before the end of the forecast period, but the NHC forecast is
now on the high side of the guidance, a little above the consensus.

Key Messages:

1. Jerry is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves
near Bermuda late Tuesday or early Wednesday. It is too soon to
determine what impacts the system may have on the island but
interests there should monitor the progress of Jerry.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 22.0N 65.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 23.3N 66.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 25.0N 66.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 26.4N 67.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 27.8N 67.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 30.6N 66.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 34.5N 62.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 38.5N 57.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 211452
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019

...CENTER OF JERRY PASSING WELL NORTH OF PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 65.0W
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM S OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Jerry.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 65.0 West. Jerry is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today. Jerry is forecast to turn
northward on Sunday and then accelerate northeastward early next
week. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will continue to
pass well north Puerto Rico today and pass well east of the
southeastern Bahamas on Sunday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter plane indicate that
the maximum sustained winds of Jerry remain near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the
next several days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
hurricane hunter plane is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 211452
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
1500 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JERRY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 65.0W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 0SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 150SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 65.0W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 64.3W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.3N 66.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 25.0N 66.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 26.4N 67.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 27.8N 67.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 30.6N 66.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 34.5N 62.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 38.5N 57.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 65.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 210855
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission earlier this
morning indicated that Jerry had weakened, with the mid-level
eye/center tilted to the east of the low-level center due to some
westerly mid-level wind shear. The highest 700-mb flight-level and
SFMR surface winds reported were 62 kt and 56 kt, respectively,
which supports a lower intensity of about 55 kt. The minimum
pressure of 995 mb is based on center dropsonde data of 999 mb with
a 38-kt surface wind.

Jerry has turned northwestward and the initial motion estimate is
now 310/13 kt. Jerry is forecast to continue moving northwestward
toward a break in the subtropical ridge today through Sunday,
followed by a northward turn on Monday. By Tuesday, a deep-layer
trough is expected to capture Jerry and accelerate the cyclone
northeastward in the general direction of Bermuda. There remains
excellent agreement among the track models on this developing
scenario, and the official track lies close to the tightly packed
consensus models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE.

Jerry is likely to experience fluctuations in intensity during the
next 72 hours due to increases/decreases in the vertical wind shear
affecting the cyclone. By 96 hours as Jerry moves closer to Bermuda,
the cyclone is forecast to come move into the right-rear entrance
region of a modest jetstream maximum, not unlike what occurred with
former Hurricane Humberto a few days ago. Thus, despite the expected
increase in the vertical wind shear to at least 30 kt,
re-intensification into a hurricane is forecast similar to a
consensus of the global models.

Key Messages:

1. Although the core of Jerry is passing north of the northern
Leeward Islands, heavy rainfall and flash floods are possible there
overnight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 21.4N 64.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 22.7N 65.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 24.3N 66.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 26.0N 67.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 27.3N 67.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 29.8N 66.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 33.2N 63.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 36.7N 60.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 210854
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019

...JERRY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 64.0W
ABOUT 755 MI...1215 KM S OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 64.0 West. Jerry is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today. Jerry is forecast to recurve
over the western Atlantic during the next few days. On the forecast
track, the center of Jerry will continue to pass well north of the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, pass well east of the
southeastern Bahamas on Sunday, and turn northward over the western
Atlantic on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in strength are likely during the next
several days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL STATEMENT: Jerry is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches, with isolated amounts of 3 inches,
across St. Maarten, Anguilla, Anegada, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin
Islands. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 210853
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 64.0W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 0SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 64.0W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 63.5W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.7N 65.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 24.3N 66.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 26.0N 67.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 27.3N 67.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 29.8N 66.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 33.2N 63.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 36.7N 60.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 64.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 210556
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
200 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019

...JERRY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM WHILE IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 63.5W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM NNW OF ANGUILLA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch for St. Maarten, St. Martin, and St.
Barthelemy have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near
latitude 21.0 North, longitude 63.5 West. Jerry is moving toward
the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). The tropical storm is
forecast to recurve over the western Atlantic during the next few
days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will continue to
pass well north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, pass
well east of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday, and turn northward
over the western Atlantic on Monday.

Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in strength are likely during the next
several days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft is
estimated to be 995 mb (29.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce additional rain accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches over Barbuda, St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada.
This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods.

Jerry is also forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1
to 2 inches across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 210259
TCDAT5

Hurricane Jerry Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 20 2019

Jerry has been displaying a classic bursting convective pattern with
a nearly circular CDO that expanded over the circulation since the
last advisory. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission that just
arrived in Jerry indicated that the center is farther northeast than
previously estimated, which appears coincident with the location of
the most recent bursts of convection. Since subjective and
objective Dvorak intensity estimates range from 61 kt to 77 kt, the
initial intensity remains 70 kt. This intensity could be adjusted
based on what the plane finds while investigating the circulation.
The central pressure is estimated to be 993 mb based on the center
drop from the plane.

The hurricane is still moving quickly west-northwestward with an
initial motion of 295/15 kt. The track forecast is fairly
straightforward. Jerry is approaching a break in the subtropical
ridge, created by a deep-layer trough currently moving across the
northwestern Atlantic. This pattern is expected to cause Jerry to
gradually recurve around the ridge during the next 5 days, with its
forward motion reaching a minimum between 48-72 hours when it moves
near the ridge axis. There is very good agreement among the track
guidance on this scenario, and the only notable spread is related
to the system's forward speed when it accelerates on day 5. The
consensus aids are holding tough on a relatively consistent
trajectory, so little change was made from the previous official
forecast.

Dropsonde data from a NOAA G-IV synoptic surveillance mission
indicate that anticyclonic flow continues over the hurricane at the
200-mb outflow level (except it's restricted a bit to the west), but
15-25 kt of northeasterly flow is cutting through the circulation
just below 250 mb. Despite this flow, Jerry's structure does not
appear to have degraded too much. Since the hurricane appears that
it will move beneath an upper-level anticyclone in about 24 hours,
its intensity may not decrease too much over the next several days.
And despite an increase in westerly shear after 48 hours, enhanced
upper-level divergence to the east of an upper-level trough could
offset the potential for weakening. Accounting for uncertainties,
the NHC intensity forecast maintains a fairly steady strength for
the entire forecast period, keeping Jerry as a hurricane for the
next 5 days. This forecast is close to the HCCA model and the
simple consensus aids, but it's notable that it's up to 20 kt lower
than the statistical-dynamical models by the end of the forecast
period.

Key Messages:

1. Although the core of Jerry is passing north of the northern
Leeward Islands, heavy rainfall and flash floods are possible there
overnight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 20.5N 62.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 21.4N 64.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 22.6N 66.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 24.0N 68.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 25.3N 68.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 27.9N 68.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 30.8N 66.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 26/0000Z 34.5N 62.1W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 210258
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jerry Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 20 2019

...JERRY EXPECTED TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO ON SATURDAY
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS STILL POSSIBLE ON THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS, VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 62.8W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM N OF ANGUILLA
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next few
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jerry was located
near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 62.8 West. Jerry is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). The hurricane is
forecast to recurve over the western Atlantic during the next few
days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will pass well
north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday, pass well
east of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday, and turn northward over
the western Atlantic on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the several
days, and Jerry could remain a hurricane through Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches over
Barbuda, St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada. This rainfall may
produce life-threatening flash floods.

Jerry is also forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1
to 2 inches, with maximum amounts of 3 inches, across the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas during the next few hours.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 210258
TCMAT5

HURRICANE JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
0300 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 62.8W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 62.8W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 62.5W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.4N 64.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.6N 66.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.0N 68.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 25.3N 68.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 27.9N 68.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 30.8N 66.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 34.5N 62.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 62.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 21/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 202345
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
800 PM AST Fri Sep 20 2019

...JERRY'S CENTER PASSING NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS STILL POSSIBLE ON THOSE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 62.5W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM NNE OF ANGUILLA
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM NNW OF BARBUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 6 to 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jerry was located
near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 62.5 West. Jerry is moving
toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). On the forecast
track, the center of Jerry will continue to move north of the
northern Leeward Islands tonight and pass well north of Puerto Rico
on Saturday. Jerry will then pass well east-northeast of the
southeastern Bahamas on Sunday and turn northward over the western
Atlantic on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast overnight, but Jerry could
re-strengthen early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90
miles (150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall,
with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda northwest
across St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada. This rainfall may
produce life-threatening flash floods.

Jerry is forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2
inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas this evening.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 202053
TCDAT5

Hurricane Jerry Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 PM AST Fri Sep 20 2019

Satellite images indicate that deep convection has re-developed
near and northeast of the center, with a new rainband also present
in the southwest quadrant. Overall the degradation in satellite
seen this morning has stopped, and that trend basically matches the
last aircraft data from several hours ago. The initial wind speed
is set to 70 kt on this advisory, and another Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the hurricane
tonight.

Jerry has been moving a little faster today, west-northwestward at
16 kt, perhaps due to the system becoming a little shallower and
feeling the faster low-level flow. There are no significant track
changes to the NHC forecast this afternoon. The hurricane's motion
should gradually bend to the right and slow down during the next few
days while the cyclone is steered around the western flank of a
weakening subtropical ridge. At longer range, a mid-latitude trough
will likely turn the hurricane northward and northeastward, but how
quickly that occurs is an open question. The guidance spread has
only increased this afternoon, although the model consensus hasn't
changed much, so the NHC forecast will hold the course on this
advisory.

Northwesterly shear is forecast to persist near Jerry for the next
day or so, and further weakening is expected. While the shear might
not change much by late this weekend, a combination of very warm
water and a more moist mid-level environment could sustain the
cyclone and even allow some strengthening afterward. The long-range
intensity forecast depends on the mid-latitude trough and whether it
is a trough that tends to shear the cyclone, or whether it gives
Jerry a baroclinic kick to increase the winds. I'm hesitant to
change anything at this point given the huge track spread, so the
latest intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous
one, near or slightly above the model consensus.

Key Messages:

1. Although the core of Jerry is expected to move north of the
northern Leeward Islands, heavy rainfall and flash floods are
possible there tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 19.6N 62.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 20.5N 63.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 21.8N 65.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 23.2N 67.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 24.5N 68.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 27.0N 68.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 24/1800Z 30.0N 67.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 25/1800Z 33.5N 63.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 202052
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jerry Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 PM AST Fri Sep 20 2019

...JERRY STILL POSES A FLOODING RISK IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 62.0W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM N OF BARBUDA
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM NE OF ANGUILLA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Netherlands has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Watch for Saba and St. Eustatius.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jerry was located
near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 62.0 West. Jerry is moving
toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). On the forecast
track, the center of Jerry will move north of the northern Leeward
Islands later today, pass well north of Puerto Rico on Saturday, be
well east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday and turn
northward on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast overnight, but Jerry could
re-strengthen early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall,
with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda northwest
across St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada. This rainfall may
produce life-threatening flash floods.

Jerry is forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2
inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas this evening.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 202052
TCMAT5

HURRICANE JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
2100 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 62.0W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 62.0W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 61.2W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.5N 63.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.8N 65.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 23.2N 67.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 24.5N 68.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 27.0N 68.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 30.0N 67.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 33.5N 63.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 62.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 21/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 201754
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
200 PM AST Fri Sep 20 2019

...JERRY'S RAINBANDS APPROACHING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 61.2W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM NNE OF BARBUDA
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM ENE OF ANGUILLA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12-24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of Jerry.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jerry was located
near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 61.2 West. Jerry is moving
toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). On the forecast
track, the center of Jerry will move north of the northern Leeward
Islands later today, pass well north of Puerto Rico on Saturday, be
well east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday and turn
northward on Monday.

Data from the Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80
mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast
during the next day or so, with some re-strengthening possible early
next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80
miles (130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure from the plane data is 990
mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall,
with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda northwest
across St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada. This rainfall may
produce life-threatening flash floods.

Jerry is forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2
inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas later today.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 201457
TCDAT5

Hurricane Jerry Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 20 2019

Data from both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Jerry is weakening quickly, and radar images from NOAA
show no sign of the eyewall reported on the last mission. Maximum
flight-level winds on the mission were about 78 kt, with SFMR values
near 70 kt, and the central pressure has risen about 10 mb
overnight. These observations also agree with the latest satellite
imagery that shows a less organized cyclone, with the center on the
far northwestern edge of a distorted central dense overcast. A blend
of all these data gives an initial wind speed estimate of 75 kt.

Jerry is moving about the same as before, west-northwestward at
15 kt. The hurricane should gradually bend to the right and slow
down during the next few days while the cyclone is steered
around the western periphery of a weakening subtropical ridge. The
guidance is tightly packed on the forecast through Monday, and
little change was made to the previous NHC prediction. At longer
range, a mid-latitude trough interaction should turn the hurricane
northward and northeastward, but the models are really struggling on
how quickly this occurs. While yesterday much of the guidance had
Jerry accelerating ahead of the trough, today's models have slowed
everything down as the trough looks like it could weaken before
fully recurving the cyclone. The new track forecast is considerably
slower than the last one beyond 72 hours, about as much as
continuity allows, and later forecasts could slow Jerry down even
more.

Northwesterly shear is forecast to persist near Jerry for the next
day or two, and some weakening is expected. The intensity forecast
is reduced from the previous one, and could be a bit too high in
the short term given recent trends. In a few days, the
aforementioned trough interaction is anticipated, but it is next to
impossible to know at this lead time whether the trough will weaken
or strengthen the cyclone, so no forecast change is made. It is a
little tempting to raise the intensity by the end, given the recent
weaker mid-latitude trough in the models, but there's just too much
track uncertainty to mess with the intensity forecast at this time.


Key Messages:

1. Although the core of Jerry is expected to move north of the
northern Leeward Islands, heavy rainfall and flash floods are
possible there today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 18.8N 60.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 19.6N 62.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 20.9N 64.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 22.3N 66.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 23.6N 68.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 26.5N 69.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 29.0N 67.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 33.0N 64.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 201457
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jerry Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 20 2019

...JERRY WEAKER BUT HEAVY RAINS FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 60.3W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM NE OF BARBUDA
ABOUT 190 MI...300 KM ENE OF ANGUILLA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12-24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of Jerry.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jerry was located
near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 60.3 West. Jerry is moving
toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). On the forecast
track, the center of Jerry will move north of the northern Leeward
Islands later today, pass well north of Puerto Rico on Saturday,
be well east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday and
turn northward on Monday.

Data from the Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have decreased to
near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is
forecast during the next day or so, with some re-strengthening
possible early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure from the plane data is 990 mb
(29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall,
with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda northwest
across St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada. This rainfall may
produce life-threatening flash floods.

Jerry is forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2
inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas later today.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 201456
TCMAT5

HURRICANE JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12-24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF JERRY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 60.3W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 60.3W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 59.6W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.6N 62.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.9N 64.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.3N 66.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.6N 68.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 26.5N 69.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 29.0N 67.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 33.0N 64.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 60.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 20/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 201142
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
800 AM AST Fri Sep 20 2019

...HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM
JERRY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 59.6W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM ENE OF BARBUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of Jerry.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jerry was located
near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 59.6 West. Jerry is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-northwest
to northwest motion at a decreasing forward speed is expected over
the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will
move north of the northern Leeward Islands later today, pass well
north of Puerto Rico on Saturday, and be well east-northeast of the
southeastern Bahamas on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. A gradual weakening trend is forecast to
continue today, but Jerry is expected to remain a hurricane during
the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80
miles (130 km).

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has recently
reported a minimum central pressure of 989 mb (29.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall,
with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda northwest
across St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada. This rainfall may
produce life-threatening flash floods.

Jerry is forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2
inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas later today.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 200838
TCDAT5

Hurricane Jerry Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 AM AST Fri Sep 20 2019

Jerry appears to have stopped strengthening for now. The last
reports from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicated that the
minimum pressure had risen slightly, and the satellite appearance
has become a little more ragged during the past several hours.
Radar images sent from the aircraft showed a well-defined inner
core, but there are no hints of an eye in geostationary satellite
images. The initial intensity is held at 90 kt based on the earlier
aircraft data. Both the Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters will
be investigating Jerry later today, and that data should provide a
better assessment of its intensity and structure.

Jerry continues to move west-northwestward at a relatively quick
pace of 14 kt. This motion is expected to continue for about
another 24 hours as the cyclone is steered by a subtropical ridge to
its northeast. The ridge is expected to weaken and slide eastward
late this weekend in response to an eastward-moving trough over the
north Atlantic. This change in the steering pattern should cause
Jerry to slow down and gradually turn to the northwest and then the
north late this weekend and early next week. A faster north-
northeastward motion is anticipated toward the end of the forecast
period as another trough approaches the system. The models remain
in very good agreement on the hurricane passing well to the north of
the northern Leeward Island and Puerto Rico late today and Saturday
and possibly moving near Bermuda in a little more than 4 days.
The only notable change this cycle is a slower northward motion from
days 3 to 5 to be in better agreement with the latest models.

The intensity forecast is a bit more challenging. The global models
show a relatively favorable upper-level wind pattern over Jerry
during the next couple of days, but there is also a significant
amount of dry air around the cyclone. Although the shear could
increase early next week, some of the models show Jerry deepening,
likely due to baroclinic effects due to the nearby trough. There is
a very large spread in the intensity guidance ranging from SHIPS and
LGEM showing little change in strength to pronounced weakening shown
by HMON during the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is
between those extremes and lies a little above the consensus aids.

Key Messages:

1. Although the core of Jerry is expected to move north of the
northern Leeward Islands, heavy rainfall and flash floods are
possible there today.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 18.4N 58.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 19.1N 60.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 20.4N 63.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 21.8N 65.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 23.2N 67.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 26.1N 68.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 24/0600Z 29.4N 66.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 25/0600Z 34.6N 63.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 200837
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jerry Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 AM AST Fri Sep 20 2019

...JERRY EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THAT AREA LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 58.7W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of Jerry.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jerry was located
near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 58.7 West. Jerry is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-northwest
to northwest motion at a decreasing forward speed is expected over
the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will
move north of the northern Leeward Islands later today, pass well
north of Puerto Rico on Saturday, and be well east-northeast of the
southeastern Bahamas on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. A gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin later today,
but Jerry is expected to remain a hurricane during the next few
days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall,
with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda northwest
across St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada.

Jerry is forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2
inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas later today.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 200837
TCMAT5

HURRICANE JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
0900 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF JERRY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 58.7W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 58.7W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 58.0W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.1N 60.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.4N 63.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.8N 65.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 23.2N 67.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 26.1N 68.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 29.4N 66.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 34.6N 63.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 58.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 20/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 200531
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
200 AM AST Fri Sep 20 2019

...JERRY EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 57.9W
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of Jerry.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jerry was located
near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 57.9 West. Jerry is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-northwest
to northwest motion at a decreasing forward speed is expected over
the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will
move north of the northern Leeward Islands later today, pass well
north of Puerto Rico on Saturday, and be well east-northeast of the
southeastern Bahamas on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. A gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin later today,
but Jerry is expected to remain a hurricane during the next few
days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80
miles (130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters is 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall,
with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda northwest
across St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada. This rainfall may
produce life-threatening flash floods.

Jerry is forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2
inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas later today.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 200246
TCDAT5

Hurricane Jerry Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters investigating Jerry this evening
found that the hurricane has strengthened. Based on the 700 mb
flight-level winds from the aircraft, the current intensity is
estimated to be about 90 kt. It should be noted that this is
substantially higher than the intensity estimates provided from
satellite data, and underscores the value of aerial reconnaissance
of tropical cyclones. An expected increase in vertical shear in a
day or so is expected to cause a weakening trend to commence in 12
to 24 hours, however, Jerry should remain a hurricane throughout the
forecast period. This NHC intensity forecast is higher than the
previous one mainly due to the higher initial wind speed, and is
near or a little above the model consensus.

Jerry remains on track and continues to move west-northwestward, or
295/14 kt. Over the next couple of days, the hurricane should
continue this general motion with some slowing of forward speed as
it moves along the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge.
Thereafter, Jerry is likely to turn to the northwest, then
north-northwest, and north as it moves through a weakness in the
ridge. The track prediction models are in good agreement on this
scenario, and the official forecast is quite close to the previous
one. This is also very similar to the NOAA corrected consensus
model, or HCCA, track.

Key Messages:

1. Although the core of Jerry is expected to move north of the
northern Leeward Islands, life-threatening flash floods are
possible, along with tropical-storm-force winds in some areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 18.0N 57.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 18.8N 59.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 20.0N 62.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 21.2N 64.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 22.6N 66.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 25.7N 68.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 29.0N 67.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 25/0000Z 35.0N 63.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 200243
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jerry Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND JERRY STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 57.2W
ABOUT 385 MI...625 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24-36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of Jerry.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jerry was located
by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 18.0 North,
longitude 57.2 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near
16 mph (26 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion at a
decreasing forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the
forecast track, the center of Jerry will move north of the northern
Leeward Islands Friday, pass well north of Puerto Rico on Saturday
and be well east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. A gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin
by late Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas by early Friday.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall,
with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda
northwest across St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada. This rainfall
may produce life-threatening flash floods. Jerry is forecast to
produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with maximum
amounts of 3 inches across the the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 200241
TCMAT5

HURRICANE JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24-36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF JERRY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 57.2W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 57.2W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 56.5W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.8N 59.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.0N 62.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.2N 64.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.6N 66.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 25.7N 68.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 29.0N 67.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 35.0N 63.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 57.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 20/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 192358
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
800 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING JERRY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 56.5W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Watch for Barbuda and Anguilla.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24-36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of Jerry.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jerry was located
by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 17.7 North,
longitude 56.5 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near
17 mph (28 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion at a
decreasing forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the
forecast track, the center of Jerry will move north of the northern
Leeward Islands Friday, pass well north of Puerto Rico on Saturday
and be well east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Jerry could strengthen during the next day or so, but some
weakening is anticipated by this weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80
miles (130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas by early Friday.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall,
with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda
northwest across St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada. This rainfall
may produce life-threatening flash floods. Jerry is forecast to
produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with maximum
amounts of 3 inches across the the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 192043
TCDAT5

Hurricane Jerry Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

Jerry is a compact hurricane on satellite imagery with the central
dense overcast becoming more symmetric during the past few hours.
Before the Air Force plane departed, the crew recorded 700-mb
flight-level winds of 97 kt and SFMR winds of about 70 kt,
suggesting maximum winds of about 75 kt. Since that time, an eye
feature has been noted on the last-light visible images, indicating
that the earlier intensification has probably continued. Thus, the
initial wind speed is set to 80 kt, and the next aircraft is
scheduled to investigate Jerry around 0000 UTC to obtain a better
estimate.

The hurricane still has some time to strengthen before
northwesterly shear increases by tomorrow morning. The shear
increase will also probably allow some environmental dry air
to be entrained into the central core and help weaken the cyclone.
Thus weakening is anticipated by late tomorrow continuing
into Saturday. Some re-strengthening is possible early next week
as Jerry could find a lower shear region due to a mid-latitude
trough interaction. The new NHC wind speed prediction has not
changed too much, but is a little higher at longer range to reflect
the above possibility.

The initial motion is still west-northwestward, or 295/15 kt. A
large subtropical ridge to the northeast of Jerry should continue to
steer the hurricane at about the same direction and speed during the
next day or two. The models have generally trended a bit to the
north on this cycle at short range, and the official forecast
follows suit. Thereafter, Jerry is forecast to move around the
then-weakening ridge, turning to the northwest on Saturday,
north-northwest on Sunday, and then northward and north-
northeastward by Monday/Tuesday. The guidance has moved to the
northeast at longer range on this cycle, possibly due to a stronger
mid-latitude trough helping to weaken the ridge. The NHC forecast
is adjusted to the northeast on this advisory, although is still on
the western side of the guidance envelope.


Key Messages:

1. Although the core of Jerry is expected to move north of the
northern Leeward Islands, life-threatening flash floods are
possible, along with tropical-storm-force winds in some areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 17.5N 55.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 18.4N 57.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 19.5N 60.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 20.7N 63.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 21.9N 65.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 24.9N 68.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 28.0N 68.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 24/1800Z 33.0N 65.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 192041
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jerry Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

...JERRY STILL STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 55.8W
ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbuda
* Anguilla
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24-36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of Jerry.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jerry was located
near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 55.8 West. Jerry is moving
toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A west-northwest
to northwest motion at a decreasing forward speed is expected over
the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will
move north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday, pass well north
of Puerto Rico on Saturday and be well east-northeast of the
southeastern Bahamas on Sunday.

Satellite and Air Force Hurricane Hunter data indicate that
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Jerry could strengthen during the next day or so
before weakening is anticipated by this weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas by early Friday.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall,
with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda
northwest across St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada. This rainfall
may produce life-threatening flash floods. Jerry is forecast to
produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with maximum
amounts of 3 inches across the the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to affect portions of
the northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 192040
TCMAT5

HURRICANE JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBUDA
* ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24-36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF JERRY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 55.8W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 55.8W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 55.2W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.4N 57.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.5N 60.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.7N 63.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.9N 65.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 24.9N 68.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 28.0N 68.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 33.0N 65.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 55.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 20/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 191753
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
200 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

...JERRY GETTING STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 55.2W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbuda
* Anguilla
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of Jerry. Additional watches could be issued later
today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jerry was located by
an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 17.2
North, longitude 55.2 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-
northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-northwest motion at a
similar forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the
forecast track, the center of Jerry will be near or north of the
northern Leeward Islands Friday, pass north of Puerto Rico on
Saturday and be east of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Jerry could strengthen during the next day
before some weakening begins this weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 20 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80
miles (130 km).

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported a
minimum central pressure of 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas by early Friday.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall,
with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda
northwest across St. Marteen/Anguilla into Anegada. Jerry is
forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches
with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are forecast to begin to affect
portions of the northern Leeward Islands this afternoon. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 191456
TCDAT5

Hurricane Jerry Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

Satellite images indicate that the center of Jerry is on the
northwestern side of the central dense overcast near a very deep
convective burst. An Air Force recon plane just flew through the
center and found a central pressure of 988 mb and SFMR values near
65 kt. These data support making Jerry the 4th hurricane of the
2019 Atlantic hurricane season with initial wind speed of 65 kt.

Jerry has the potential to further strengthen today, but an
increase in northwesterly shear related to an upper-level ridge is
anticipated overnight. This change in shear will likely arrest the
development of Jerry and start a slow weakening trend sometime
tomorrow. In 3 or 4 days, Jerry could enter a more conducive
environment for strengthening, but there is a pretty large spread in
the shear forecast near the cyclone at this time, related to the
positioning of Jerry relative to the ridge. Since the environmental
uncertainty at long range is so high, little change has been made to
the previous forecast.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 295/14
kt. The track forecast has remained rather consistent during the
past several cycles, taking Jerry just north of the Leeward
Islands during the first couple of days due to seemingly reliable
steering flow from the subtropical ridge to the north. The track
is a little trickier beyond that time due to some dependence on the
strength of Jerry, with a stronger system likely moving a
bit longer toward the west-northwest, similar to the latest
ECMWF/HWRF forecast. Regardless, the cyclone should eventually turn
northward and northeastward by day 5 due to a substantial break in
the subtropical ridge. The track forecast puts slightly greater
weight on those stronger solutions, and the official track forecast
is a little left of the various consensus aids and not too far from
the last NHC prediction.

Key Messages:

1. Although the core of Jerry is expected to pass north of
northern Leeward Islands, tropical-storm-force winds and locally
heavy rainfall are possible, and tropical storm watches are in
effect.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 16.8N 54.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 17.5N 56.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 18.5N 59.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 19.5N 62.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 20.7N 64.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 23.5N 68.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 26.5N 70.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 24/1200Z 30.5N 67.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 191454
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jerry Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

...AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT FINDS JERRY IS A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 54.4W
ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbuda
* Anguilla
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of Jerry. Additional watches could be issued later
today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jerry was located
near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 54.4 West. Jerry is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-northwest
motion at a similar forward speed is expected over the next few
days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will be near or
north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday, pass north of Puerto
Rico on Saturday and east of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Jerry is forecast to strengthen during the next
day before some weakening begins this weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km).

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported a
minimum central pressure of 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas by early Friday.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall,
with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda
northwest across St. Marteen/Anguilla into Anegada. Jerry is
forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches
with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are forecast to begin to affect
portions of the northern Leeward Islands this afternoon. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 191452
TCMAT5

HURRICANE JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBUDA
* ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF JERRY. ADDITIONAL WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED LATER
TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 54.4W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 54.4W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 53.9W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.5N 56.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.5N 59.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.5N 62.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.7N 64.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.5N 68.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 26.5N 70.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 30.5N 67.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 54.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 191155
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
800 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

...HURRICANE HUNTERS ON THE WAY TO JERRY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 53.9W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbuda
* Anguilla
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of Jerry. Additional watches could be issued later
today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 53.9 West. Jerry is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-
northwest motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over
the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will
be near or north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday and pass
north of Puerto Rico on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Jerry is forecast to become a hurricane later today, with
little change in strength anticipated on Friday or Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas by early Friday.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are forecast to affect portions
of the northern Leeward Islands by later today. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 190851
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

A fortuitous 0531 UTC AMSR2 microwave overpass indicated that
Jerry's inner core has significantly become better organized this
morning. The image revealed a nearly enclosed banding eye feature
with the curved band wrapping around the east portion of the
cyclone. Based on the much improved cloud pattern and a blend of
the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates, the
initial intensity is increased to 60 kt for this advisory.

Jerry is expected to strengthen further in the short term and become
a hurricane later today. Afterward, the statistical-dynamical
intensity models show some moderate northwesterly shear impinging on
the northern half of the cyclone, which should arrest the early
period intensification. Beyond the 48 hour period, a majority of
the large-scale models indicate increasing westerly vertical shear
as Jerry moves northwest of an upper anti-cyclone situated to
the north of Hispaniola. Therefore, a weakening trend is expected
through the remaining portion of the forecast. The NHC forecast is
slightly below the previous advisory after the 48 hour period, but
above the HFIP HCCA and IVCN consensus models, and as well as the
HWRF.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/14
kt. There are no significant changes to the forecast track
philosophy. The cyclone is forecast to be steered by the
southeasterly flow generated by a subtropical ridge to the northeast
of Jerry through the 48 hour period. Around day 3, Jerry is likely
to turn northwest to north-northwest, in response to a growing
weakness in the aforementioned mid-tropospheric ridge along 70-75W
longitude. The official track forecast is based on a blend of the
various consensus aids.

Key Messages:

1. Jerry is expected to become a hurricane before it moves close to
the northern Leeward Islands Friday. Although the core of Jerry is
currently expected to pass north of the islands, tropical-storm-
force winds and locally heavy rainfall are possible, and tropical
storm watches have been issued for a portion of this area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 16.0N 53.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 16.8N 55.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 17.8N 57.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 18.9N 60.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 20.1N 63.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 22/0600Z 22.9N 68.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 23/0600Z 26.0N 70.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 24/0600Z 29.5N 68.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 190850
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

...JERRY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 53.2W
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbuda
* Anguilla
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of Jerry. Additional watches could be issued later
today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 53.2 West. Jerry is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-
northwest motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over
the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will
be near or north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday and pass
north of Puerto Rico on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Jerry is forecast to become a hurricane later
today, with little change in strength anticipated on Friday or
Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas by early Friday.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are forecast to affect portions
of the northern Leeward Islands by later today. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 190850
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBUDA
* ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF JERRY. ADDITIONAL WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED LATER
TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 53.2W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 53.2W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 52.6W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.8N 55.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.8N 57.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.9N 60.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.1N 63.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.9N 68.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 26.0N 70.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 29.5N 68.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 53.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 190548
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
200 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

...JERRY LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 52.5W
ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbuda
* Anguilla
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of Jerry. Additional watches could be issued later
today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 52.5 West. Jerry is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A west-
northwest motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over
the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will
be near or north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday and pass
north of Puerto Rico on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Jerry is forecast to become a hurricane later today, with
little change in strength anticipated on Friday or Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas by early Friday.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are forecast to affect portions
of the northern Leeward Islands by later today. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 190240
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

Jerry is gradually becoming better organized, with a small circular
CDO and some banding features over its northwestern quadrant.
Although the storm has some modest upper-level outflow, there
is evidence of west-northwesterly winds undercutting the system
just below the outflow layer. An upper-level cyclone is located a
few hundred miles to the northwest of Jerry, as confirmed by
synoptic surveillance observations taken recently by the NOAA G-IV
jet. However, the global models suggest that this feature should
remain far enough to the north of the tropical cyclone so that its
shearing influence will be minimal in the short term. The current
intensity estimate is 55 kt based on Dvorak classifications from
TAFB and SAB. Since the environment is likely to be modestly
conducive during the next day or so, strengthening is predicted for
the next 24 hours. Thereafter, the dynamical guidance shows some
increase in shear, which should result in a leveling off of
Jerry's intensity. Later in the forecast period, the global models
predict a significant increase in shear, so some weakening is
likely. The official intensity forecast is close to the
multi-model consensus.

The storm remains on track with the motion continuing around 290/13
kt. There are no important changes to the track forecast from the
previous advisory. Jerry should move along the southwestern
periphery of a subtropical ridge over the next couple of days. In
3-5 days, the tropical cyclone is likely to turn northwest,
north-northwest, and eventually north following a weakness in the
ridge near 70-75W longitude. The official track forecast is close
to the latest corrected multi-model consensus guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Jerry is expected to become a hurricane before it moves close to
the northern Leeward Islands Friday. Although the core of Jerry is
currently expected to pass north of the islands, tropical-storm-
force winds and locally heavy rainfall are possible, and tropical
storm watches have been issued for a portion of this area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 15.4N 51.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 16.2N 53.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 17.3N 56.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 18.5N 59.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 19.7N 62.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 22.4N 67.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 23/0000Z 25.7N 70.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 24/0000Z 29.0N 69.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 190239
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

...JERRY STRENGTHENING...
...LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 51.8W
ABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbuda
* Anguilla
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of Jerry. Additional watches could be issued on
Thursday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 51.8 West. Jerry is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A west-
northwest motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over
the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will
be near or north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday and pass
north of Puerto Rico on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Jerry is forecast to become a hurricane on
Thursday, with little change in strength anticipated on Friday or
Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas by early Friday.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are forecast to affect portions
of the northern Leeward Islands by late Thursday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 190239
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBUDA
* ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF JERRY. ADDITIONAL WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED ON
THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 51.8W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 51.8W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 51.2W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.2N 53.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.3N 56.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.5N 59.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.7N 62.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.4N 67.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 25.7N 70.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 29.0N 69.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 51.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 182342
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
800 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

...ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 51.2W
ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for Barbuda and Anguilla.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbuda
* Anguilla
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of Jerry. Further watches could be issued this evening
or overnight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 51.2 West. Jerry is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A west-
northwest motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over
the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will
be near or north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday and pass
north of Puerto Rico on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Jerry is forecast to become a hurricane on Thursday, with little
change in strength anticipated on Friday or Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas by early Friday.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are forecast to affect portions
of northern Leeward Islands late on Thursday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT65 KNHC 182108
TCUAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
510 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for Saba and St. Eustatius.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 182041
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

Jerry continues to strengthen this afternoon, as indicated by 1-min
GOES-16 satellite imagery, with a large burst of convection close
to the center. In addition, microwave data show that the central
structure has improved, displaying a tightly wrapped band near the
center. The initial wind speed is set to 50 kt, on the conservative
side of the intensity estimates.

The storm should become a hurricane on Thursday while it is moving
over very warm waters with light shear. Dropsondes from the NOAA
G-IV aircraft this afternoon show that Jerry is surrounded by some
very dry air in the lower to mid-levels, and this is likely the main
limiting factor on the cyclone's strengthening rate in the near
term. By 48 hours, almost all of the models show an increase in
northwesterly shear due to flow from an upper-level ridge, which
seems likely to cause some weakening. At long range, Jerry is
likely to interact with a mid-latitude trough, which is notoriously
difficult to forecast. Only small changes were made to the previous
wind speed prediction, and this advisory is close to a blend of the
various consensus aids.

The initial motion continues to be west-northwestward, or 290/13 kt.
There's no substantial change to the track forecast on this
package, with a subtropical ridge providing a well-defined steering
current. This ridge should move Jerry along at a faster forward
speed in about the same direction for the next couple of days,
taking the center close to but north of the northern Leeward
Islands. Afterward, a northwest to northward turn, influenced by a
weakness in the aforementioned ridge left behind by Humberto and a
new mid-latitude shortwave, is anticipated. The new forecast is very
close to the previous one and a blend of the latest ECMWF ensemble
mean and the corrected-consensus HCCA.

Key Messages:

1. Jerry is expected to become a hurricane before it moves close to
the northern Leeward Islands Friday. Although the core of Jerry is
currently expected to pass north of the islands, tropical-storm-
force winds and locally heavy rainfall are possible, and tropical
storm watches have been issued for a portion of this area.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 15.0N 50.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 15.7N 52.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 16.7N 55.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 17.8N 58.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 19.1N 61.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 21.5N 66.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 22/1800Z 25.2N 70.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 23/1800Z 28.5N 69.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 182040
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 50.5W
ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of St. Maarten has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
St. Maarten.

Meteo-France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for St. Martin and
St. Barthelemy.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of Jerry. Further watches could be issued this evening
or overnight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 50.5 West. Jerry is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A west-
northwest motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over
the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will
be near or north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday and pass
north of Puerto Rico on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Jerry is forecast to become a hurricane on Thursday,
with little change in strength anticipated on Friday or Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas by early Friday.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are forecast to affect portions
of northern Leeward Islands late on Thursday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 182040
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. MAARTEN HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
ST. MAARTEN.

METEO-FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. MARTIN AND
ST. BARTHELEMY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF JERRY. FURTHER WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED THIS EVENING
OR OVERNIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 50.5W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 50.5W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 49.9W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.7N 52.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.7N 55.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.8N 58.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.1N 61.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.5N 66.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 25.2N 70.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 28.5N 69.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 50.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 181454
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

Satellite images indicate that Jerry continues to become better
organized, with a large curved band wrapping around the center.
While microwave data does not show an inner core yet, the overall
satellite presentation has improved during the past several hours.
The initial wind speed is set to 45 kt, which closely matches
almost all of the available Dvorak estimates and a just-arrived
ASCAT-C scatterometer pass.

Further intensification of Jerry is expected during the next day or
two as the cyclone moves over very warm waters within light shear.
While this type of environment could support even more
strengthening than forecast, there is some substantial dry air
around the cyclone, which is forecast to limit the intensification
rates for now. This forecast leans heavier on the regional
hurricane models HWRF, HMON and COAMPS-TC, which all show a weaker
cyclone than the statistical/dynamical LGEM and SHIPS models.
Most of the guidance shows increasing shear in a couple of days, and
the shear could become somewhat strong by next week. While little
change in strength is indicated beyond Friday, this usually doesn't
happen in reality, and further changes will be necessary as the
environmental factors become more clear.

The initial motion continues to be west-northwestward, or 290/12
kt. The subtropical ridge to the north should steer Jerry at a
faster forward speed for the next couple of days. Afterward, a
northwest to north-northwestward turn, influenced by a weakness in
the aforementioned ridge left behind by Humberto, is expected. The
NHC track forecast is basically an update from the previous advisory
and lies on the left side of the guidance suite, nearest the ECMWF
model and the corrected-consensus forecasts.


Key Messages:

1. Jerry is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when it moves
near the northern Leeward Islands Friday, although it is too soon to
determine the direct impacts to the islands. Interests there should
ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and monitor the
progress of this system. Watches could be issued for a portion of
this area this afternoon or evening.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 14.6N 49.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 15.3N 51.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 16.3N 53.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 17.3N 56.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 18.4N 59.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 20.5N 65.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 23.3N 69.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 26.5N 70.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 181440
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

...JERRY STRENGTHENING OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 49.2W
ABOUT 855 MI...1375 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system. Watches could be issued this afternoon or
evening.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 49.2 West. Jerry is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west-
northwest motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over
the next few days. On the forecast track, the system will be near
the northern Leeward Islands Friday and pass north of Puerto Rico on
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Jerry is forecast to become a hurricane by late
Thursday, with little change in strength anticipated on Friday and
Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 181440
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 49.2W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 49.2W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 48.5W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.3N 51.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.3N 53.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.3N 56.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.4N 59.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.5N 65.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 23.3N 69.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 26.5N 70.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 49.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 180907
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

Enhanced BD-curve infrared imagery and a 0431 UTC AMSR2 microwave
pass indicate that the cyclone has become better organized during
the pass several hours. Although the surface center is still
situated near the northeastern edge of the convective mass, the
deep convection has expanded in the form of curve bands in the south
portion of the cyclone. Based on the increased subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates, and the improved microwave
presentation, the initial intensity is raised to 40 kt making the
system the tenth named storm of the season.

Even though the shear is low and the sea surface temperatures are
warm, GOES-16 sounder data and the GFS/ECMWF SHIPS intensity models
indicate that the environment surrounding the cyclone is still a
little dry and stable. Therefore, only gradual intensification is
forecast. The shear is forecast to increase after 24 hours or so,
to the point where it should slow, or halt development, and this is
reflected in the official forecast. It should be noted that the
forecast still calls for the cyclone to become a hurricane as it
approaches the northern Leeward Islands.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/11
kt, within the low to mid-tropospheric steering flow produced by a
subtropical ridge to the north of the tropical storm. This general
motion is expected to continue during the next 3 to 4 days.
Afterward, a northwest to north-northwestward turn, influenced by a
growing weakness in the aforementioned ridge, is expected. The NHC
track forecast is basically an update from the previous advisory and
lies in the middle of the guidance suite, and hedged toward the HCCA
multi-model consensus.


Key Messages:

1. Jerry is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when
its moves near the northern Leeward Islands Friday, although it is
too soon to determine if there will be any direct impacts in the
islands. Interests there should ensure they have their hurricane
plan in place and monitor the progress of this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 14.1N 47.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 14.8N 49.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 15.7N 52.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 16.8N 54.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 17.9N 57.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 21/0600Z 20.2N 64.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 22/0600Z 22.8N 68.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 23/0600Z 25.6N 70.2W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 180904
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

Enhanced BD-curve infrared imagery and a 0431 UTC AMSR2 microwave
pass indicate that the cyclone has become better organized during
the pass several hours. Although the surface center is still
situated near the northeastern edge of the convective mass, the
deep convection has expanded in the form of curve bands in the south
portion of the cyclone. Based on the increased subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates, and the improved microwave
presentation, the initial intensity is raised to 40 kt making the
system the tenth named storm of the season.

Even though the shear is low and the sea surface temperatures are
warm, GOES-16 sounder data and the GFS/ECMWF SHIPS intensity models
indicate that the environment surrounding the cyclone is still a
little dry and stable. Therefore, only gradual intensification is
forecast. The shear is forecast to increase after 24 hours or so,
to the point where it should slow, or halt development, and this is
reflected in the official forecast. It should be noted that the
forecast still calls for the cyclone to become a hurricane as it
approaches the northern Leeward Islands.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/11
kt, within the low to mid-tropospheric steering flow produced by a
subtropical ridge to the north of the tropical storm. This general
motion is expected to continue during the next 3 to 4 days.
Afterward, a northwest to north-northwestward turn, influenced by a
growing weakness in the aforementioned ridge, is expected. The NHC
track forecast is basically an update from the previous advisory and
lies in the middle of the guidance suite, and hedged toward the HCCA
multi-model consensus.


Key Messages:

1. Jerry is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when
its moves near the northern Leeward Islands Friday, although it is
too soon to determine if there will be any direct impacts in the
islands. Interests there should ensure they have their hurricane
plan in place and monitor the progress of this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 14.1N 47.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 14.8N 49.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 15.7N 52.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 16.8N 54.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 17.9N 57.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 21/0600Z 20.2N 64.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 22/0600Z 22.8N 68.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 23/0600Z 25.6N 70.2W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 180901
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

Enhanced BD-curve infrared imagery and a 0431 UTC AMSR2 microwave
pass indicate that the cyclone has become better organized during
the pass several hours. Although the surface center is still
situated near the northeastern edge of the convective mass, the
deep convection has expanded in the form of curve bands in the south
portion of the cyclone. Based on the increased subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates, and the improved microwave
presentation, the initial intensity is raised to 40 kt making the
system the tenth named storm of the season.

Even though the shear is low and the sea surface temperatures are
warm, GOES-16 sounder data and the GFS/ECMWF SHIPS intensity models
indicate that the environment surrounding the cyclone is still a
little dry and stable. Therefore, only gradual intensification is
forecast. The shear is forecast to increase after 24 hours or so,
to the point where it should slow, or halt development, and this is
reflected in the official forecast. It should be noted that the
forecast still calls for the cyclone to become a hurricane as it
approaches the northern Leeward Islands.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/11
kt, within the low to mid-tropospheric steering flow produced by a
subtropical ridge to the north of the tropical storm. This general
motion is expected to continue during the next 3 to 4 days.
Afterward, a northwest to north-northwestward turn, influenced by a
growing weakness in the aforementioned ridge, is expected. The NHC
track forecast is basically an update from the previous advisory and
lies in the middle of the guidance suite, and hedged toward the HCCA
multi-model consensus.


Key Messages:

1. Jerry is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when
its moves near the northern Leeward Islands Friday, although it is
too soon to determine if there will be any direct impacts in the
islands. Interests there should ensure they have their hurricane
plan in place and monitor the progress of this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 14.1N 47.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 14.8N 49.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 15.7N 52.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 16.8N 54.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 17.9N 57.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 21/0600Z 20.2N 64.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 22/0600Z 22.8N 68.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 23/0600Z 25.6N 70.2W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 180859
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

...JERRY BECOMES THE TENTH NAMED STORM OF THE 2019 SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 47.7W
ABOUT 960 MI...1545 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 47.7 West. Jerry is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A
west-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is
expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the system
will be near the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night
or Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Further strengthening is forecast during the next
couple of days, and Jerry is expected to become a hurricane by the
time it moves near the northern Leeward Islands.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 180858
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 47.7W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 47.7W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 47.2W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.8N 49.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.7N 52.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.8N 54.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.9N 57.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.2N 64.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 22.8N 68.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 25.6N 70.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 47.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 180358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 18.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91C ANALYSED POSITION : 16.5N 164.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP912019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.09.2019 0 16.5N 164.4W 1006 23
1200UTC 18.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE HUMBERTO ANALYSED POSITION : 31.2N 71.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.09.2019 0 31.2N 71.5W 954 79
1200UTC 18.09.2019 12 31.9N 68.9W 945 84
0000UTC 19.09.2019 24 33.2N 65.3W 932 91
1200UTC 19.09.2019 36 36.3N 60.7W 943 80
0000UTC 20.09.2019 48 38.7N 58.5W 977 63
1200UTC 20.09.2019 60 41.1N 56.5W 990 48
0000UTC 21.09.2019 72 43.7N 52.7W 996 41
1200UTC 21.09.2019 84 45.5N 46.4W 996 38
0000UTC 22.09.2019 96 47.7N 37.7W 991 38
1200UTC 22.09.2019 108 49.4N 29.1W 982 42
0000UTC 23.09.2019 120 51.9N 22.2W 977 41
1200UTC 23.09.2019 132 54.0N 17.5W 971 43
0000UTC 24.09.2019 144 POST-TROPICAL

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IMELDA ANALYSED POSITION : 29.7N 95.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.09.2019 0 29.7N 95.4W 1008 24
1200UTC 18.09.2019 12 30.6N 96.1W 1009 21
0000UTC 19.09.2019 24 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 125.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.09.2019 0 16.6N 125.6W 996 43
1200UTC 18.09.2019 12 16.1N 126.9W 992 47
0000UTC 19.09.2019 24 15.7N 128.2W 991 51
1200UTC 19.09.2019 36 15.6N 129.1W 990 50
0000UTC 20.09.2019 48 15.9N 130.1W 990 47
1200UTC 20.09.2019 60 16.9N 130.6W 990 51
0000UTC 21.09.2019 72 17.7N 131.1W 991 55
1200UTC 21.09.2019 84 17.5N 132.0W 999 35
0000UTC 22.09.2019 96 16.9N 133.1W 1002 33
1200UTC 22.09.2019 108 16.1N 134.3W 1003 32
0000UTC 23.09.2019 120 15.3N 135.7W 1001 35
1200UTC 23.09.2019 132 15.0N 137.1W 999 35
0000UTC 24.09.2019 144 15.9N 138.3W 993 47

TROPICAL STORM LORENA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 101.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.09.2019 0 15.0N 101.8W 1005 35
1200UTC 18.09.2019 12 17.2N 104.5W 1003 42
0000UTC 19.09.2019 24 19.0N 107.6W 1001 40
1200UTC 19.09.2019 36 19.7N 110.1W 997 36
0000UTC 20.09.2019 48 19.7N 110.6W 995 32
1200UTC 20.09.2019 60 20.3N 111.5W 991 35
0000UTC 21.09.2019 72 20.9N 112.3W 989 44
1200UTC 21.09.2019 84 21.6N 113.7W 984 58
0000UTC 22.09.2019 96 22.7N 115.4W 993 40
1200UTC 22.09.2019 108 24.1N 117.0W 1000 32
0000UTC 23.09.2019 120 26.1N 118.1W 1003 27
1200UTC 23.09.2019 132 28.6N 118.4W 1004 25
0000UTC 24.09.2019 144 31.3N 114.9W 1002 36

TROPICAL STORM MARIO ANALYSED POSITION : 12.6N 109.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.09.2019 0 12.6N 109.2W 1006 25
1200UTC 18.09.2019 12 13.9N 111.0W 1006 30
0000UTC 19.09.2019 24 15.1N 112.0W 1005 33
1200UTC 19.09.2019 36 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM 10L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.0N 46.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.09.2019 0 14.0N 46.0W 1008 24
1200UTC 18.09.2019 12 15.0N 48.3W 1006 29
0000UTC 19.09.2019 24 15.9N 50.8W 1005 29
1200UTC 19.09.2019 36 16.9N 53.9W 1003 35
0000UTC 20.09.2019 48 18.0N 56.9W 1004 35
1200UTC 20.09.2019 60 18.9N 60.0W 1006 38
0000UTC 21.09.2019 72 20.3N 62.6W 1007 39
1200UTC 21.09.2019 84 21.6N 64.9W 1006 38
0000UTC 22.09.2019 96 23.0N 66.4W 1002 42
1200UTC 22.09.2019 108 24.2N 67.5W 993 55
0000UTC 23.09.2019 120 25.3N 67.7W 981 64
1200UTC 23.09.2019 132 27.2N 67.2W 971 68
0000UTC 24.09.2019 144 29.5N 67.7W 974 64

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 14.2N 134.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.09.2019 12 14.2N 134.6W 1007 23
0000UTC 19.09.2019 24 13.8N 134.8W 1007 22
1200UTC 19.09.2019 36 13.2N 135.0W 1007 24
0000UTC 20.09.2019 48 13.2N 134.3W 1006 41
1200UTC 20.09.2019 60 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 180358

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 180358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 18.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91C ANALYSED POSITION : 16.5N 164.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP912019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 18.09.2019 16.5N 164.4W WEAK
12UTC 18.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE HUMBERTO ANALYSED POSITION : 31.2N 71.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 18.09.2019 31.2N 71.5W INTENSE
12UTC 18.09.2019 31.9N 68.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.09.2019 33.2N 65.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 19.09.2019 36.3N 60.7W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 20.09.2019 38.7N 58.5W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 20.09.2019 41.1N 56.5W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 21.09.2019 43.7N 52.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 21.09.2019 45.5N 46.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.09.2019 47.7N 37.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 22.09.2019 49.4N 29.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 23.09.2019 51.9N 22.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 23.09.2019 54.0N 17.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 24.09.2019 POST-TROPICAL

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IMELDA ANALYSED POSITION : 29.7N 95.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 18.09.2019 29.7N 95.4W WEAK
12UTC 18.09.2019 30.6N 96.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 125.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 18.09.2019 16.6N 125.6W MODERATE
12UTC 18.09.2019 16.1N 126.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.09.2019 15.7N 128.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2019 15.6N 129.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 15.9N 130.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2019 16.9N 130.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2019 17.7N 131.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.09.2019 17.5N 132.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 22.09.2019 16.9N 133.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.09.2019 16.1N 134.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.09.2019 15.3N 135.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.09.2019 15.0N 137.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.09.2019 15.9N 138.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

TROPICAL STORM LORENA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 101.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 18.09.2019 15.0N 101.8W WEAK
12UTC 18.09.2019 17.2N 104.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2019 19.0N 107.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2019 19.7N 110.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 19.7N 110.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2019 20.3N 111.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2019 20.9N 112.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.09.2019 21.6N 113.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 22.09.2019 22.7N 115.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 22.09.2019 24.1N 117.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 23.09.2019 26.1N 118.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.09.2019 28.6N 118.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.09.2019 31.3N 114.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM MARIO ANALYSED POSITION : 12.6N 109.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 18.09.2019 12.6N 109.2W WEAK
12UTC 18.09.2019 13.9N 111.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2019 15.1N 112.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM 10L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.0N 46.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 18.09.2019 14.0N 46.0W WEAK
12UTC 18.09.2019 15.0N 48.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2019 15.9N 50.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2019 16.9N 53.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 18.0N 56.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2019 18.9N 60.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2019 20.3N 62.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.09.2019 21.6N 64.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.09.2019 23.0N 66.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 22.09.2019 24.2N 67.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 23.09.2019 25.3N 67.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 23.09.2019 27.2N 67.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 24.09.2019 29.5N 67.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 14.2N 134.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 18.09.2019 14.2N 134.6W WEAK
00UTC 19.09.2019 13.8N 134.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2019 13.2N 135.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 13.2N 134.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 180358

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 180252
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 17 2019

Convection associated with Tropical Depression Ten has increased
and become better organized since the last advisory, and various
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are now in
the 35-40 kt range. However, just-received ASCAT-C data indicates
that, despite this increase in organization, the surface winds have
not yet reached 35 kt. Based on this, the cyclone remains a 30 kt
depression for this advisory.

The initial motion is now 285/9. The cyclone is to the south of a
low- to mid-level ridge, and this feature should steer the system
generally west-northwestward with an increase in forward speed
during the next 3-4 days. Near the end of the forecast period, the
cyclone should approach a weakness in the ridge and turn more
northwestward. The track guidance is in generally good agreement
with this scenario, with the GFS near the northern edge of the
guidance and the HWRF remaining near the southern edge. The new
forecast track lies a little to the south of the center of the
guidance envelope in best agreement with the HCCA corrected
consensus model.

The depression should be in an environment of light shear and over
warm water for the next 24-36 h, which should allow steady
strengthening during that time. The shear is forecast to increase
after 36 h to the point where it may at least slow development, and
this is reflected in slight changes from the previous forecast. The
new intensity forecast is near the intensity consensus through 48 h,
and then is above the consensus from 72-120 h. It should be noted
that the forecast still calls for the cyclone to become a hurricane
as it approaches the northern Leeward Islands.


Key Messages:

1. The depression is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when
its moves near the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night and
Friday, although it is too soon to determine if there will be any
direct impacts in the islands. Interests there should ensure they
have their hurricane plan in place and monitor the progress of this
system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 13.7N 46.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 14.4N 48.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 15.3N 50.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 16.2N 53.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 17.3N 56.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 19.5N 62.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 22/0000Z 21.5N 67.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 23/0000Z 24.5N 70.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 180251
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 17 2019

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED WHILE MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 46.7W
ABOUT 1030 MI...1660 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 46.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph
(17 km/h). A west-northwestward motion at a somewhat faster forward
speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track,
the system will be near the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night
or Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm by Wednesday
morning. The system is forecast become a hurricane by the time it
moves near the northern Leeward Islands.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 180251
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 46.7W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 46.7W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 46.2W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.4N 48.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.3N 50.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.2N 53.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.3N 56.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.5N 62.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 21.5N 67.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 24.5N 70.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 46.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 172034
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 PM AST Tue Sep 17 2019

The organization of the depression has changed little today. Bands
of deep convection are located over the southern and southwestern
portions of the circulation, but is limited over the remainder of
the cyclone. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB
were unchanged from this morning, so the initial intensity is held
at 30 kt. There has been no change to the intensity forecast
reasoning or the forecast itself. The depression is forecast to
move over gradually increasing sea surface temperatures and within a
generally low vertical wind shear environment. These factors favor
strengthening, and the NHC forecast continues to call for the
depression to become a tropical storm tonight, and a hurricane
before it approaches the northern Leeward Islands.

The initial motion estimate is 290/9 kt. The cyclone should move
west-northwestward at an increasingly faster forward speed to the
south of a strong deep-layer ridge. The track guidance is tightly
clustered, except for the latest HWRF run which is much farther
south at days 3-5. The latest consensus aids were very close to the
previous NHC track, and little overall change to the previous
official foreast was needed.

Key Messages:

1. The depression is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when
its moves near the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night and
Friday, although it is too soon to determine if there will be any
direct impacts in the islands. Interests there should ensure they
have their hurricane plan in place and monitor the progress of this
system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 13.4N 45.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 14.1N 46.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 15.0N 48.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 15.9N 51.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 16.9N 54.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 18.9N 60.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 20.9N 66.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 23.5N 70.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 172034
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
500 PM AST Tue Sep 17 2019

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 45.6W
ABOUT 1110 MI...1785 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was
located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 45.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph
(17 km/h). A west-northwestward motion at a somewhat faster forward
speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track,
the system will be near the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night
or Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight. The
system is forecast become a hurricane by the time it moves near the
northern Leeward Islands.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 172033
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 45.6W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 45.6W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 45.2W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.1N 46.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 15.0N 48.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.9N 51.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.9N 54.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.9N 60.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 20.9N 66.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 23.5N 70.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 45.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 171447
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 17 2019

Deep convection associated with the area of low pressure over the
central Atlantic has become more persistent and better organized
this morning. Data T-numbers from both SAB and TAFB are 2.0 on the
Dvorak scale, therefore advisories are being initiated on a tropical
depression. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, in line with the
satellite estimates. The depression is forecast to move over
gradually increasing sea surface temperatures within a favorable
upper-level environment. The only negative factor for
intensification appears to be some nearby dry air, but with low
shear conditions expected, so steady strengthening is forecast
during the next several days. The NHC forecast calls for the
depression to become a tropical storm later today, and attain
hurricane status within 72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is in
good agreement with the SHIPS and LGEM statistical models.

Since the depression is still in the development phase, the initial
motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/10 kt. A strong deep-layer
ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer the depression
generally west-northwestward at a faster forward speed during the
next few days. The track guidance is in relatively good agreement
through 72 hours, and brings the cyclone near the northern Leeward
Islands in about 3 days. By late in the period, the cyclone is
expected to reach the western periphery of the ridge, and there is
increasing spread among the guidance. The global model ensemble
means are along the right side of the envelope while the HWRF and
UKMET are along the left side. The NHC track lies close the
consensus aids, which is also in good agreement with the latest
ECMWF.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 12.9N 44.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 13.8N 46.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 14.7N 47.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 15.5N 50.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 16.3N 52.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 18.2N 59.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 21/1200Z 20.2N 64.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 22/1200Z 22.5N 69.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 171446
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 17 2019

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 44.9W
ABOUT 1165 MI...1870 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was
located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 44.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19
km/h). A west-northwestward motion at a somewhat faster forward
speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track,
the system will approach the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night
or Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The
system is forecast become a hurricane by the time it approaches the
northern Leeward Island.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 171446
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 44.9W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 44.9W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 44.6W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 13.8N 46.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.7N 47.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.5N 50.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.3N 52.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.2N 59.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 20.2N 64.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 22.5N 69.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 44.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>