Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for KALMAEGI-19
in Philippines

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 200145

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 200000 UTC, TROPICAL STORM KALMAEGI (1926) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 995 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (17.5 N) ONE
TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (121.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 16 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210000 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 191945

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 191800 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KALMAEGI (1926) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (18.5
N) ONE TWO TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (122.1 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 201800 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 191645

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 191500 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KALMAEGI (1926) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (122.3 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO BE SLOW MOVING AT FIRST AND THEN WILL MOVE
SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 KT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 201500 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 191345

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 191200 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KALMAEGI (1926) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (19.3
N) ONE TWO TWO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (122.3 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO BE SLOW MOVING AT FIRST AND THEN WILL MOVE
SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 KT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 201200 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 191045

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 190900 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KALMAEGI (1926) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (122.3 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO BE SLOW MOVING AT FIRST AND THEN WILL MOVE
SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200900 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 190900
WARNING 190900.
WARNING VALID 200900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1926 KALMAEGI (1926) 985 HPA
AT 19.4N 122.5E BASHI CHANNEL ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 192100UTC AT 17.7N 120.8E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200900UTC AT 15.7N 118.7E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 190745

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 190600 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KALMAEGI (1926) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (19.1 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (122.1 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO BE SLOW MOVING AT FIRST AND THEN WILL MOVE
SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200600 UTC
ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (15.8 N)
ONE ONE EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (118.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210600 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 190600
WARNING 190600.
WARNING VALID 200600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1926 KALMAEGI (1926) 985 HPA
AT 19.4N 122.5E BASHI CHANNEL ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 18.0N 121.0E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 16.1N 119.1E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 190445

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 190300 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KALMAEGI (1926) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (19.1 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (122.1 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200300 UTC
ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (16.2 N)
ONE ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (118.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210300 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 190300
WARNING 190300.
WARNING VALID 200300.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1926 KALMAEGI (1926) 990 HPA
AT 19.2N 122.4E BASHI CHANNEL ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191500UTC AT 18.2N 121.1E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200300UTC AT 16.1N 119.1E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 190145

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 190000 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KALMAEGI (1926) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (19.1 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (122.2 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200000 UTC
ONE SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (16.5 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (119.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210000 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.

>

Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 190000
WARNING 190000.
WARNING VALID 200000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1926 KALMAEGI (1926) 990 HPA
AT 19.3N 122.4E BASHI CHANNEL ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 18.6N 121.6E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 16.6N 119.5E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 182245

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 182100 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KALMAEGI (1926) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (19.1 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (122.3 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 192100 UTC
ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (17.0 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (119.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 202100 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 182100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 182100UTC 19.2N 122.5E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 192100UTC 17.0N 119.9E 70NM 70.
MOVE SW 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 201800UTC 15.5N 118.2E 120NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 182100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 182100UTC 19.2N 122.5E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 192100UTC 17.0N 119.9E 70NM 70.
MOVE SW 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 201800UTC 15.5N 118.2E 120NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 182100
WARNING 182100.
WARNING VALID 192100.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1926 KALMAEGI (1926) 990 HPA
AT 19.2N 122.5E BASHI CHANNEL MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190900UTC AT 18.8N 121.8E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 192100UTC AT 17.0N 119.9E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 182100
WARNING ATCG MIL 27W NWP 191118195911
2019111818 27W KALMAEGI 025 01 300 06 SATL 020
T000 192N 1225E 075 R064 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 065 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 120 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 075 SE QD 060 SW QD 210 NW QD
T012 190N 1217E 075 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 040 SE QD 080 SW QD 270 NW QD
T024 179N 1202E 060 R050 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 020 SE QD 050 SW QD 210 NW QD
T036 163N 1186E 045 R034 160 NE QD 000 SE QD 030 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 144N 1164E 035 R034 040 NE QD 000 SE QD 050 SW QD 180 NW QD
T072 122N 1134E 020
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TYPHOON 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 025
1. TYPHOON 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 19.2N 122.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 122.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 19.0N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 17.9N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 16.3N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 14.4N 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 12.2N 113.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 122.3E.
18NOV19. TYPHOON 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 289 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.//
2719111018 135N1351E 15
2719111100 135N1347E 15
2719111106 131N1337E 15
2719111112 125N1330E 15
2719111118 121N1327E 20
2719111200 120N1324E 20
2719111206 119N1319E 20
2719111212 119N1314E 20
2719111218 121N1304E 25
2719111300 126N1292E 30
2719111306 129N1287E 30
2719111312 132N1284E 30
2719111318 138N1281E 30
2719111400 144N1273E 30
2719111406 148N1271E 30
2719111412 155N1267E 30
2719111418 157N1266E 30
2719111500 159N1265E 30
2719111506 160N1264E 30
2719111512 160N1262E 30
2719111518 159N1261E 35
2719111600 157N1261E 35
2719111606 156N1260E 35
2719111612 155N1259E 35
2719111618 155N1256E 35
2719111700 158N1252E 45
2719111706 165N1248E 50
2719111706 165N1248E 50
2719111712 169N1245E 50
2719111712 169N1245E 50
2719111718 173N1239E 50
2719111718 173N1239E 50
2719111800 177N1235E 60
2719111800 177N1235E 60
2719111806 182N1233E 65
2719111806 182N1233E 65
2719111806 182N1233E 65
2719111812 189N1230E 75
2719111812 189N1230E 75
2719111812 189N1230E 75
2719111818 192N1225E 75
2719111818 192N1225E 75
2719111818 192N1225E 75
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 19.2N 122.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 122.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 19.0N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 17.9N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 16.3N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 14.4N 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 12.2N 113.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 122.3E.
18NOV19. TYPHOON 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 289 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 181945

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 181800 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KALMAEGI (1926) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (19.1 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (122.5 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 191800 UTC
ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (17.4 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (120.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 201800 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 181800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.29 FOR STS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KALMAEGI IS LOCATED AT 19.2N, 122.6E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
990HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH TCHP, DRY AIR AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING
AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND LAND.
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 181800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181800UTC 19.2N 122.6E FAIR
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 191800UTC 17.5N 120.3E 70NM 70.
MOVE SW 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 201800UTC 15.5N 118.2E 120NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 181800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181800UTC 19.2N 122.6E FAIR
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 191800UTC 17.5N 120.3E 70NM 70.
MOVE SW 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 201800UTC 15.5N 118.2E 120NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 181800
WARNING 181800.
WARNING VALID 191800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1926 KALMAEGI (1926) 990 HPA
AT 19.2N 122.6E BASHI CHANNEL MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 19.0N 121.9E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 17.5N 120.3E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 15.5N 118.2E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 181645

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 181500 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KALMAEGI (1926) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (18.9
N) ONE TWO TWO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (122.6 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 191500 UTC
ONE SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (17.5 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (120.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 201500 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 181500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181500UTC 18.9N 122.8E FAIR
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 191500UTC 17.7N 120.3E 70NM 70.
MOVE SW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 201200UTC 14.2N 115.8E 120NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 181500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181500UTC 18.9N 122.8E FAIR
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 191500UTC 17.7N 120.3E 70NM 70.
MOVE SW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 201200UTC 14.2N 115.8E 120NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 181500
WARNING 181500.
WARNING VALID 191500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1926 KALMAEGI (1926) 990 HPA
AT 18.9N 122.8E BASHI CHANNEL MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190300UTC AT 19.1N 121.9E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191500UTC AT 17.7N 120.3E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 181500
WARNING ATCG MIL 27W NWP 191118130731
2019111812 27W KALMAEGI 024 01 340 08 SATL 020
T000 189N 1230E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 190N 1221E 075 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 050 SE QD 090 SW QD 240 NW QD
T024 184N 1209E 065 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 020 SE QD 070 SW QD 200 NW QD
T036 171N 1194E 050 R050 040 NE QD 000 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 010 SE QD 050 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 156N 1177E 035 R034 160 NE QD 020 SE QD 080 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 125N 1144E 020
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TYPHOON 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 024
1. TYPHOON 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 18.9N 123.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 123.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 19.0N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 18.4N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.1N 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 15.6N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 12.5N 114.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 18.9N 122.8E.
18NOV19. TYPHOON 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 282 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.//
2719111018 135N1351E 15
2719111100 135N1347E 15
2719111106 131N1337E 15
2719111112 125N1330E 15
2719111118 121N1327E 20
2719111200 120N1324E 20
2719111206 119N1319E 20
2719111212 119N1314E 20
2719111218 121N1304E 25
2719111300 126N1292E 30
2719111306 129N1287E 30
2719111312 132N1284E 30
2719111318 138N1281E 30
2719111400 144N1273E 30
2719111406 148N1271E 30
2719111412 155N1267E 30
2719111418 157N1266E 30
2719111500 159N1265E 30
2719111506 160N1264E 30
2719111512 160N1262E 30
2719111518 159N1261E 35
2719111600 157N1261E 35
2719111606 156N1260E 35
2719111612 155N1259E 35
2719111618 155N1256E 35
2719111700 158N1252E 45
2719111706 165N1248E 50
2719111706 165N1248E 50
2719111712 169N1245E 50
2719111712 169N1245E 50
2719111718 173N1239E 50
2719111718 173N1239E 50
2719111800 177N1235E 60
2719111800 177N1235E 60
2719111806 182N1233E 65
2719111806 182N1233E 65
2719111806 182N1233E 65
2719111812 189N1230E 75
2719111812 189N1230E 75
2719111812 189N1230E 75
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 181200 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.28 FOR STS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KALMAEGI IS LOCATED AT 18.8N, 123.0E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
990HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE ELONGATION OF
A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 181200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.28 FOR STS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KALMAEGI IS LOCATED AT 18.8N, 123.0E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
990HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE ELONGATION OF
A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW TCHP, STRONG VWS, DRY AIR AND LAND. THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 181345

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 181200 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KALMAEGI (1926) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (18.8
N) ONE TWO TWO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (122.9 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 191200 UTC
ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (18.0 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (120.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 201200 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 181200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181200UTC 18.8N 123.0E FAIR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 191200UTC 18.1N 120.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE SW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 201200UTC 14.2N 115.8E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 181200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181200UTC 18.8N 123.0E FAIR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 191200UTC 18.1N 120.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE SW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 201200UTC 14.2N 115.8E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 181200
WARNING 181200.
WARNING VALID 191200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1926 KALMAEGI (1926) 990 HPA
AT 18.8N 123.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 19.3N 122.1E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 18.1N 120.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 14.2N 115.8E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 181045

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 180900 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KALMAEGI (1926) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (18.5
N) ONE TWO THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (123.0 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190900 UTC
ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (18.3 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (121.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200900 UTC
ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (14.7 N)
ONE ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (116.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210900 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 180900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180900UTC 18.4N 123.1E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 190900UTC 18.2N 121.3E 50NM 70.
MOVE SW 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 200600UTC 15.2N 116.9E 100NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 180900
WARNING 180900.
WARNING VALID 190900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1926 KALMAEGI (1926) 990 HPA
AT 18.4N 123.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 182100UTC AT 18.9N 122.3E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190900UTC AT 18.2N 121.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 180900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180900UTC 18.4N 123.1E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 190900UTC 18.2N 121.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE SW 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 200600UTC 15.2N 116.9E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 180900
WARNING ATCG MIL 27W NWP 191118071449
2019111806 27W KALMAEGI 023 01 325 05 SATL 030
T000 181N 1232E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 186N 1225E 070 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 220 NW QD
T024 185N 1215E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 040 SE QD 080 SW QD 210 NW QD
T036 172N 1201E 045 R034 200 NE QD 010 SE QD 040 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 158N 1184E 035 R034 120 NE QD 010 SE QD 030 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 127N 1151E 020
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TYPHOON 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 023
1. TYPHOON 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 023
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 27W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 18.1N 123.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 123.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 18.6N 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 18.5N 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 17.2N 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 15.8N 118.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 12.7N 115.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 123.0E.
18NOV19. TYPHOON 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z,
190300Z AND 190900Z.//
2719111018 135N1351E 15
2719111100 135N1347E 15
2719111106 131N1337E 15
2719111112 125N1330E 15
2719111118 121N1327E 20
2719111200 120N1324E 20
2719111206 119N1319E 20
2719111212 119N1314E 20
2719111218 121N1304E 25
2719111300 126N1292E 30
2719111306 129N1287E 30
2719111312 132N1284E 30
2719111318 138N1281E 30
2719111400 144N1273E 30
2719111406 148N1271E 30
2719111412 155N1267E 30
2719111418 157N1266E 30
2719111500 159N1265E 30
2719111506 160N1264E 30
2719111512 160N1262E 30
2719111518 159N1261E 35
2719111600 157N1261E 35
2719111606 156N1260E 35
2719111612 155N1259E 35
2719111618 155N1256E 35
2719111700 158N1252E 45
2719111706 165N1248E 50
2719111706 165N1248E 50
2719111712 169N1245E 50
2719111712 169N1245E 50
2719111718 173N1239E 50
2719111718 173N1239E 50
2719111800 177N1235E 60
2719111800 177N1235E 60
2719111806 181N1232E 65
2719111806 181N1232E 65
2719111806 181N1232E 65
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 023
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 27W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 18.1N 123.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 123.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 18.6N 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 18.5N 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 17.2N 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 15.8N 118.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 12.7N 115.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 123.0E.
18NOV19. TYPHOON 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z,
190300Z AND 190900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 180600 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.27 FOR STS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KALMAEGI IS LOCATED AT 18.0N, 123.2E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
990HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE ELONGATION OF A BAND
WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 180600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.27 FOR STS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS KALMAEGI IS LOCATED AT 18.0N, 123.2E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
990HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE ELONGATION OF A BAND
WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LAND, DRY AIR AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 180600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180600UTC 18.0N 123.2E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 190600UTC 18.6N 121.4E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 200600UTC 15.2N 116.9E 100NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 180600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180600UTC 18.0N 123.2E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 190600UTC 18.6N 121.4E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 200600UTC 15.2N 116.9E 100NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 180600
WARNING 180600.
WARNING VALID 190600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1926 KALMAEGI (1926) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL
STORM 990 HPA
AT 18.0N 123.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 18.6N 121.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 15.2N 116.9E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 180445

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 180300 UTC, TROPICAL STORM KALMAEGI (1926) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (17.7 N) ONE
TWO THREE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (123.2 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190300 UTC
ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (18.8 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (121.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200300 UTC
ONE SIX POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (16.1 N)
ONE ONE EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (118.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210300 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 180300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180300UTC 17.7N 123.2E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 190300UTC 18.7N 121.6E 40NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 200000UTC 16.2N 118.0E 90NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 180300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180300UTC 17.7N 123.2E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 190300UTC 18.7N 121.6E 40NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 200000UTC 16.2N 118.0E 90NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 180300
WARNING 180300.
WARNING VALID 190300.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1926 KALMAEGI (1926) 996 HPA
AT 17.7N 123.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190300UTC AT 18.7N 121.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 180300
WARNING ATCG MIL 27W NWP 191118003658
2019111800 27W KALMAEGI 022 02 310 05 SATL 020
T000 175N 1234E 060 R050 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 085 SE QD 055 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 182N 1226E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 190 NW QD
T024 185N 1219E 065 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 040 SE QD 090 SW QD 250 NW QD
T036 177N 1207E 050 R050 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 010 SE QD 050 SW QD 210 NW QD
T048 163N 1191E 035 R034 150 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 133N 1155E 020
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 022
1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 17.5N 123.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 123.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 18.2N 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 18.5N 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 17.7N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 16.3N 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 13.3N 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 123.2E.
18NOV19. TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 222
NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 180000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z
AND 190300Z.//
2719111018 135N1351E 15
2719111100 135N1347E 15
2719111106 131N1337E 15
2719111112 125N1330E 15
2719111118 121N1327E 20
2719111200 120N1324E 20
2719111206 119N1319E 20
2719111212 119N1314E 20
2719111218 121N1304E 25
2719111300 126N1292E 30
2719111306 129N1287E 30
2719111312 132N1284E 30
2719111318 138N1281E 30
2719111400 144N1273E 30
2719111406 148N1271E 30
2719111412 155N1267E 30
2719111418 157N1266E 30
2719111500 159N1265E 30
2719111506 160N1264E 30
2719111512 160N1262E 30
2719111518 159N1261E 35
2719111600 157N1261E 35
2719111606 156N1260E 35
2719111612 155N1259E 35
2719111618 155N1256E 35
2719111700 158N1252E 45
2719111706 165N1248E 50
2719111706 165N1248E 50
2719111712 169N1245E 50
2719111712 169N1245E 50
2719111718 172N1238E 50
2719111718 172N1238E 50
2719111800 175N1234E 60
2719111800 175N1234E 60
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 17.2N 123.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 123.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.0N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 18.5N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 18.3N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 17.3N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 14.3N 116.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 17.4N 123.6E.
17NOV19. TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225
NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (FENGSHEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 180145

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 180000 UTC, TROPICAL STORM KALMAEGI (1926) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (17.6 N) ONE TWO
THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (123.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190000 UTC
ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (18.8 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (122.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200000 UTC
ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (16.6 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (119.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210000 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 180000 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.26 FOR TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KALMAEGI IS LOCATED AT 17.6N, 123.5E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
996HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SEA SURFACE AMVS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 180000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.26 FOR TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KALMAEGI IS LOCATED AT 17.6N, 123.5E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
996HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SEA SURFACE AMVS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LAND, DRY AIR AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 180000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180000UTC 17.6N 123.5E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 190000UTC 18.8N 121.8E 40NM 70.
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 200000UTC 16.2N 118.0E 90NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 180000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180000UTC 17.6N 123.5E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 190000UTC 18.8N 121.8E 40NM 70.
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 200000UTC 16.2N 118.0E 90NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 180000
WARNING 180000.
WARNING VALID 190000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1926 KALMAEGI (1926) 996 HPA
AT 17.6N 123.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 18.8N 121.8E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 16.2N 118.0E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1008 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 172245

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 172100 UTC, TROPICAL STORM KALMAEGI (1926) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 995 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (17.6 N) ONE TWO
THREE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (123.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 182100 UTC
ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (18.8 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (122.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 192100 UTC
ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (17.0 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (119.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 202100 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 172100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 172100UTC 17.6N 123.7E FAIR
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 182100UTC 18.8N 121.9E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 191800UTC 17.1N 119.9E 90NM 70.
MOVE WSW 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 201800UTC 13.1N 115.1E 140NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 172100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 172100UTC 17.6N 123.7E FAIR
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 182100UTC 18.8N 121.9E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 191800UTC 17.1N 119.9E 90NM 70.
MOVE WSW 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 201800UTC 13.1N 115.1E 140NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 172100
WARNING 172100.
WARNING VALID 182100.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1926 KALMAEGI (1926) 998 HPA
AT 17.6N 123.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180900UTC AT 18.4N 122.8E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 182100UTC AT 18.8N 121.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 172100
WARNING ATCG MIL 27W NWP 191117192740
2019111718 27W KALMAEGI 021 02 295 07 SATL 025
T000 172N 1238E 050 R050 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 180N 1231E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 185N 1224E 065 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 240 NW QD
T036 183N 1216E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 040 SE QD 080 SW QD 230 NW QD
T048 173N 1202E 040 R034 200 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 143N 1166E 020
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 021
1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 17.2N 123.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 123.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.0N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 18.5N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 18.3N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 17.3N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 14.3N 116.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 17.4N 123.6E.
17NOV19. TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225
NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2719111018 135N1351E 15
2719111100 135N1347E 15
2719111106 131N1337E 15
2719111112 125N1330E 15
2719111118 121N1327E 20
2719111200 120N1324E 20
2719111206 119N1319E 20
2719111212 119N1314E 20
2719111218 121N1304E 25
2719111300 126N1292E 30
2719111306 129N1287E 30
2719111312 132N1284E 30
2719111318 138N1281E 30
2719111400 144N1273E 30
2719111406 148N1271E 30
2719111412 155N1267E 30
2719111418 157N1266E 30
2719111500 159N1265E 30
2719111506 160N1264E 30
2719111512 160N1262E 30
2719111518 159N1261E 35
2719111600 157N1261E 35
2719111606 156N1260E 35
2719111612 155N1259E 35
2719111618 155N1256E 35
2719111700 158N1252E 45
2719111706 165N1248E 50
2719111706 165N1248E 50
2719111712 169N1245E 50
2719111712 169N1245E 50
2719111718 172N1238E 50
2719111718 172N1238E 50
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 17.2N 123.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 123.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.0N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 18.5N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 18.3N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 17.3N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 14.3N 116.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 17.4N 123.6E.
17NOV19. TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225
NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (FENGSHEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 171800 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.25 FOR TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KALMAEGI IS LOCATED AT 17.3N, 123.9E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS
FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK
VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF
ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM
SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING
AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 171800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.25 FOR TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KALMAEGI IS LOCATED AT 17.3N, 123.9E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS
FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK
VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF
ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM
SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING
AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LAND, DRY AIR AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT60. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 171945

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 171800 UTC, TROPICAL STORM KALMAEGI (1926) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 995 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (17.3 N) ONE
TWO THREE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (123.9 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 181800 UTC
ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (18.8 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (122.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 191800 UTC
ONE SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (17.5 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (120.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 201800 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 171800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171800UTC 17.3N 123.9E FAIR
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 181800UTC 18.7N 122.5E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 191800UTC 17.1N 119.9E 90NM 70.
MOVE WSW 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 201800UTC 13.1N 115.1E 140NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 171800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171800UTC 17.3N 123.9E FAIR
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 181800UTC 18.7N 122.5E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 191800UTC 17.1N 119.9E 90NM 70.
MOVE WSW 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 201800UTC 13.1N 115.1E 140NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 171800
WARNING 171800.
WARNING VALID 181800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1926 KALMAEGI (1926) 998 HPA
AT 17.3N 123.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 18.3N 123.1E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 18.7N 122.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 17.1N 119.9E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 13.1N 115.1E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 171645

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 171500 UTC, TROPICAL STORM KALMAEGI (1926) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 995 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (17.0 N) ONE
TWO THREE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (123.9 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 181500 UTC
ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (18.7 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (122.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 191500 UTC
ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (18.3 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (121.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 201500 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 171500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171500UTC 17.2N 124.2E FAIR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 181500UTC 18.9N 122.7E 70NM 70.
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 191200UTC 18.7N 121.7E 90NM 70.
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 201200UTC 15.0N 116.8E 140NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 171500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171500UTC 17.2N 124.2E FAIR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 181500UTC 18.9N 122.7E 70NM 70.
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 191200UTC 18.7N 121.7E 90NM 70.
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 201200UTC 15.0N 116.8E 140NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 171500
WARNING 171500.
WARNING VALID 181500.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1926 KALMAEGI (1926) 998 HPA
AT 17.2N 124.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180300UTC AT 18.2N 123.4E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181500UTC AT 18.9N 122.7E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 171500
WARNING ATCG MIL 27W NWP 191117131238
2019111712 27W KALMAEGI 020 02 325 05 SATL 030
T000 169N 1245E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 177N 1237E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 184N 1227E 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 180 NW QD
T036 183N 1216E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 050 SE QD 090 SW QD 230 NW QD
T048 174N 1204E 050 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 030 SE QD 060 SW QD 200 NW QD
T072 151N 1175E 035 R034 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 190 NW QD
T096 122N 1136E 020
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 020
1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 16.9N 124.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 124.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 17.7N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 18.4N 122.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 18.3N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 17.4N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 15.1N 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 12.2N 113.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 124.3E.
17NOV19. TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245
NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 171200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z
AND 181500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 26W (FENGSHEN) WARNINGS
2719111018 135N1351E 15
2719111100 135N1347E 15
2719111106 131N1337E 15
2719111112 125N1330E 15
2719111118 121N1327E 20
2719111200 120N1324E 20
2719111206 119N1319E 20
2719111212 119N1314E 20
2719111218 121N1304E 25
2719111300 126N1292E 30
2719111306 129N1287E 30
2719111312 132N1284E 30
2719111318 138N1281E 30
2719111400 144N1273E 30
2719111406 148N1271E 30
2719111412 155N1267E 30
2719111418 157N1266E 30
2719111500 159N1265E 30
2719111506 160N1264E 30
2719111512 160N1262E 30
2719111518 159N1261E 35
2719111600 157N1261E 35
2719111606 156N1260E 35
2719111612 155N1259E 35
2719111618 155N1256E 35
2719111700 158N1252E 45
2719111706 165N1248E 50
2719111706 165N1248E 50
2719111712 169N1245E 55
2719111712 169N1245E 55
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 16.9N 124.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 124.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 17.7N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 18.4N 122.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 18.3N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 17.4N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 15.1N 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 12.2N 113.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 124.3E.
17NOV19. TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245
NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 171200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z
AND 181500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 26W (FENGSHEN) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 171200 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.24 FOR TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KALMAEGI IS LOCATED AT 16.8N, 124.3E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS
FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK
VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF
ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND
FORMING A CURVED BAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT36. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT36 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 171200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.24 FOR TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KALMAEGI IS LOCATED AT 16.8N, 124.3E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS
FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK
VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF
ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND
FORMING A CURVED BAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT36. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT36 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LAND, DRY AIR AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 171345

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 171200 UTC, TROPICAL STORM KALMAEGI (1926) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 995 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (16.8 N) ONE TWO
FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (124.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 181200 UTC
ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (18.6 N)
ONE TWO THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (123.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 191200 UTC
ONE EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (18.4 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (121.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 201200 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 171200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 19
NAME 1926 KALMAEGI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 171200UTC 17.2N 123.6E
MOVEMENT W 6KT
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 180000UTC 17.7N 123.0E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
24HR
POSITION 181200UTC 18.2N 121.9E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
36HR
POSITION 190000UTC 18.0N 120.8E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
48HR
POSITION 191200UTC 17.4N 120.1E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
72HR
POSITION 201200UTC 15.9N 117.8E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1004HPA 33KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 171200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171200UTC 16.8N 124.3E FAIR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 181200UTC 18.8N 123.2E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 191200UTC 18.7N 121.7E 90NM 70.
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 201200UTC 15.0N 116.8E 140NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 171200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171200UTC 16.8N 124.3E FAIR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 181200UTC 18.8N 123.2E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 191200UTC 18.7N 121.7E 90NM 70.
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 201200UTC 15.0N 116.8E 140NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 171200
WARNING 171200.
WARNING VALID 181200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1926 KALMAEGI (1926) 998 HPA
AT 16.8N 124.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 17.9N 123.8E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 18.8N 123.2E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 18.7N 121.7E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 15.0N 116.8E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 171045

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 170900 UTC, TROPICAL STORM KALMAEGI (1926) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 995 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (16.8 N) ONE TWO
FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (124.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180900 UTC
ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (18.6 N)
ONE TWO THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (123.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190900 UTC
ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (18.6 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (122.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200900 UTC
ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (15.7 N)
ONE ONE EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (118.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210900 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 170900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170900UTC 16.9N 124.6E FAIR
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 180900UTC 18.7N 123.4E 70NM 70.
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 190600UTC 18.4N 121.7E 120NM 70.
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 200600UTC 15.6N 118.3E 180NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 170900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170900UTC 16.9N 124.6E FAIR
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 180900UTC 18.7N 123.4E 70NM 70.
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 190600UTC 18.4N 121.7E 120NM 70.
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 200600UTC 15.6N 118.3E 180NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 170900
WARNING ATCG MIL 27W NWP 191117075253
2019111706 27W KALMAEGI 019 02 340 09 SATL 025
T000 167N 1249E 050 R050 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 174N 1241E 060 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 181N 1232E 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 185N 1223E 075 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 230 NW QD
T048 181N 1212E 055 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 040 SE QD 080 SW QD 220 NW QD
T072 157N 1186E 035 R034 070 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 125N 1141E 020
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 019
1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 16.7N 124.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 124.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.4N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.1N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 18.5N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 18.1N 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 15.7N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 12.5N 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 124.7E.
17NOV19. TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 258
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
UPDATES.//
2719111018 135N1351E 15
2719111100 135N1347E 15
2719111106 131N1337E 15
2719111112 125N1330E 15
2719111118 121N1327E 20
2719111200 120N1324E 20
2719111206 119N1319E 20
2719111212 119N1314E 20
2719111218 121N1304E 25
2719111300 126N1292E 30
2719111306 129N1287E 30
2719111312 132N1284E 30
2719111318 138N1281E 30
2719111400 144N1273E 30
2719111406 148N1271E 30
2719111412 155N1267E 30
2719111418 157N1266E 30
2719111500 159N1265E 30
2719111506 160N1264E 30
2719111512 160N1262E 30
2719111518 159N1261E 35
2719111600 157N1261E 35
2719111606 156N1260E 35
2719111612 155N1259E 35
2719111618 155N1256E 35
2719111700 158N1252E 45
2719111706 167N1249E 50
2719111706 167N1249E 50
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 16.7N 124.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 124.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.4N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.1N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 18.5N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 18.1N 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 15.7N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 12.5N 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 124.7E.
17NOV19. TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 258
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 26W (FENGSHEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 170600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.23 FOR TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KALMAEGI IS LOCATED AT 17.0N, 124.8E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND
STARTING TO FORM A CURVED BAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR
AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP, STRONG VWS
AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 170745

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL STORM KALMAEGI (1926) HAS ENTERED THE AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY OF THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY.

AT 170600 UTC, TROPICAL STORM KALMAEGI (1926) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (16.5 N) ONE TWO
FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (124.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180600 UTC
ONE EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (18.1 N)
ONE TWO THREE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (123.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190600 UTC
ONE EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (18.5 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (121.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200600 UTC
ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (15.9 N)
ONE ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (118.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210600 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER SEA.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 170600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170600UTC 17.0N 124.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 180600UTC 18.2N 123.2E 70NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 190600UTC 18.4N 121.7E 120NM 70.
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 200600UTC 15.6N 118.3E 180NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 170600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170600UTC 17.0N 124.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 180600UTC 18.2N 123.2E 70NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 190600UTC 18.4N 121.7E 120NM 70.
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 200600UTC 15.6N 118.3E 180NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 170600
WARNING 170600.
WARNING VALID 180600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1926 KALMAEGI (1926) 998 HPA
AT 17.0N 124.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 08
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 17.3N 124.0E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 18.2N 123.2E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 18.4N 121.7E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 15.6N 118.3E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 170300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170300UTC 17.0N 124.9E FAIR
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 180300UTC 17.8N 123.5E 70NM 70.
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 190000UTC 18.5N 122.0E 100NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 200000UTC 16.3N 118.8E 160NM 70.
MOVE SW 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 210000UTC 13.0N 114.5E 230NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 170300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170300UTC 17.0N 124.9E FAIR
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 180300UTC 17.8N 123.5E 70NM 70.
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 190000UTC 18.5N 122.0E 100NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 200000UTC 16.3N 118.8E 160NM 70.
MOVE SW 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 170000 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.22 FOR TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KALMAEGI IS LOCATED AT 16.9N, 125.9E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS
OBSCURE. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND WEAK VWS. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE
HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE
CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 170000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.22 FOR TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KALMAEGI IS LOCATED AT 16.9N, 125.9E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS
OBSCURE. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND WEAK VWS. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE
HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE
CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH STRONG VWS, DRY AIR AND LAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 170300
WARNING ATCG MIL 27W NWP 191117004610
2019111700 27W KALMAEGI 018 02 290 03 SATL 025
T000 155N 1254E 045 R034 105 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 161N 1247E 055 R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 020 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 169N 1238E 060 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 176N 1229E 065 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 177N 1220E 060 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 050 SE QD 070 SW QD 210 NW QD
T072 161N 1193E 040 R034 140 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 130N 1151E 030
T120 116N 1135E 020
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 018
1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 15.5N 125.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N 125.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 16.1N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 16.9N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 17.6N 122.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 17.7N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 16.1N 119.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 13.0N 115.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 11.6N 113.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 125.2E.
17NOV19. TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 261
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 26W
2719111018 135N1351E 15
2719111100 135N1347E 15
2719111106 131N1337E 15
2719111112 125N1330E 15
2719111118 121N1327E 20
2719111200 120N1324E 20
2719111206 119N1319E 20
2719111212 119N1314E 20
2719111218 121N1304E 25
2719111300 126N1292E 30
2719111306 129N1287E 30
2719111312 132N1284E 30
2719111318 138N1281E 30
2719111400 144N1273E 30
2719111406 148N1271E 30
2719111412 155N1267E 30
2719111418 157N1266E 30
2719111500 159N1265E 30
2719111506 160N1264E 30
2719111512 160N1262E 30
2719111518 159N1261E 35
2719111600 157N1261E 35
2719111606 156N1260E 35
2719111612 155N1259E 35
2719111618 154N1257E 35
2719111700 155N1254E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 15.5N 125.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N 125.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 16.1N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 16.9N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 17.6N 122.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 17.7N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 16.1N 119.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 13.0N 115.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 11.6N 113.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 125.2E.
17NOV19. TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 261
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 26W
(FENGSHEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 170000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170000UTC 16.9N 125.9E POOR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 180000UTC 17.5N 123.7E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 190000UTC 18.5N 122.0E 100NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 200000UTC 16.3N 118.8E 160NM 70.
MOVE SW 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 210000UTC 13.0N 114.5E 230NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 170000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170000UTC 16.9N 125.9E POOR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 180000UTC 17.5N 123.7E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 190000UTC 18.5N 122.0E 100NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 200000UTC 16.3N 118.8E 160NM 70.
MOVE SW 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 170000
WARNING 170000.
WARNING VALID 180000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1926 KALMAEGI (1926) 1002 HPA
AT 16.9N 125.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 17.0N 124.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 17.5N 123.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 18.5N 122.0E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 16.3N 118.8E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 13.0N 114.5E WITH 230 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 162100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 162100UTC 16.6N 126.0E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 172100UTC 17.3N 124.0E 70NM 70.
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 181800UTC 18.6N 122.3E 100NM 70.
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 191800UTC 17.2N 119.9E 160NM 70.
MOVE WSW 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 201800UTC 14.0N 115.5E 230NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 162100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 162100UTC 16.6N 126.0E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 172100UTC 17.3N 124.0E 70NM 70.
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 181800UTC 18.6N 122.3E 100NM 70.
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 191800UTC 17.2N 119.9E 160NM 70.
MOVE WSW 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 162100
WARNING ATCG MIL 27W NWP 191116194126
2019111618 27W KALMAEGI 017 02 270 01 SATL 030
T000 155N 1258E 035 R034 050 NE QD 020 SE QD 040 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 159N 1251E 040 R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 020 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 167N 1243E 045 R034 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 174N 1234E 050 R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 178N 1224E 055 R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 230 NW QD
T072 166N 1198E 040 R034 170 NE QD 020 SE QD 040 SW QD 150 NW QD
T096 137N 1161E 030
T120 116N 1135E 020
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 017
1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 15.5N 125.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N 125.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 15.9N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 16.7N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 17.4N 123.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 17.8N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 16.6N 119.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 13.7N 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 11.6N 113.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 15.6N 125.6E.
16NOV19. TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 283
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
161800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
2719111018 135N1351E 15
2719111100 135N1347E 15
2719111106 131N1337E 15
2719111112 125N1330E 15
2719111118 121N1327E 20
2719111200 120N1324E 20
2719111206 119N1319E 20
2719111212 119N1314E 20
2719111218 121N1304E 25
2719111300 126N1292E 30
2719111306 129N1287E 30
2719111312 132N1284E 30
2719111318 138N1281E 30
2719111400 144N1273E 30
2719111406 148N1271E 30
2719111412 155N1267E 30
2719111418 157N1266E 30
2719111500 159N1265E 30
2719111506 160N1264E 30
2719111512 160N1262E 30
2719111518 159N1261E 35
2719111600 157N1261E 35
2719111606 156N1260E 35
2719111612 155N1259E 35
2719111618 155N1258E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 15.5N 125.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N 125.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 15.9N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 16.7N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 17.4N 123.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 17.8N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 16.6N 119.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 13.7N 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 11.6N 113.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 15.6N 125.6E.
16NOV19. TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 283
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
161800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND
172100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 26W (FENGSHEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 161800 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.21 FOR TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KALMAEGI IS LOCATED AT 16.6N, 126.1E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANIMATED
MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE.
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS
STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 161800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.21 FOR TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KALMAEGI IS LOCATED AT 16.6N, 126.1E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANIMATED
MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE.
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS
STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LAND, INCREASED VWS AND DRY AIR. THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 161800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161800UTC 16.6N 126.1E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 171800UTC 17.4N 124.1E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 181800UTC 18.6N 122.3E 100NM 70.
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 191800UTC 17.2N 119.9E 160NM 70.
MOVE WSW 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 201800UTC 14.0N 115.5E 230NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 161800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161800UTC 16.6N 126.1E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 171800UTC 17.4N 124.1E 60NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 181800UTC 18.6N 122.3E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 191800UTC 17.2N 119.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE WSW 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 161800
WARNING 161800.
WARNING VALID 171800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1926 KALMAEGI (1926) 1002 HPA
AT 16.6N 126.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 16.8N 125.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 17.4N 124.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 18.6N 122.3E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 17.2N 119.9E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 14.0N 115.5E WITH 230 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 161500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161500UTC 16.6N 126.2E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 171500UTC 17.3N 124.2E 70NM 70.
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 181200UTC 18.8N 122.4E 90NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 191200UTC 17.5N 120.0E 140NM 70.
MOVE WSW 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 201200UTC 14.7N 115.2E 200NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 161500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161500UTC 16.6N 126.2E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 171500UTC 17.3N 124.2E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 181200UTC 18.8N 122.4E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 191200UTC 17.5N 120.0E 140NM 70%
MOVE WSW 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 161200 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.20 FOR TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KALMAEGI IS LOCATED AT 16.7N, 126.3E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANIMATED
MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE.
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS
STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT48.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 161200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.20 FOR TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KALMAEGI IS LOCATED AT 16.7N, 126.3E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANIMATED
MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE.
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS
STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT48.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LAND, INCREASED VWS AND DRY AIR. THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 161500
WARNING ATCG MIL 27W NWP 191116141041
2019111612 27W KALMAEGI 016 02 270 02 SATL 050
T000 156N 1258E 035 R034 090 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 159N 1251E 040 R034 120 NE QD 090 SE QD 020 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 164N 1245E 045 R034 110 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 173N 1235E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 178N 1221E 055 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 200 NW QD
T072 164N 1193E 040 R034 200 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 170 NW QD
T096 139N 1158E 030
T120 112N 1124E 020
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 15.6N 125.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 125.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 15.9N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 16.4N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 17.3N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 17.8N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.4N 119.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 13.9N 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 11.2N 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 125.6E.
16NOV19. TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 284
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 161200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z
AND 171500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 26W (FENGSHEN) WARNINGS
2719111018 135N1351E 15
2719111100 135N1347E 15
2719111106 131N1337E 15
2719111112 125N1330E 15
2719111118 121N1327E 20
2719111200 120N1324E 20
2719111206 119N1319E 20
2719111212 119N1314E 20
2719111218 121N1304E 25
2719111300 126N1292E 30
2719111306 129N1287E 30
2719111312 132N1284E 30
2719111318 138N1281E 30
2719111400 144N1273E 30
2719111406 148N1271E 30
2719111412 155N1267E 30
2719111418 157N1266E 30
2719111500 159N1265E 30
2719111506 160N1264E 30
2719111512 160N1262E 30
2719111518 159N1261E 35
2719111600 157N1261E 35
2719111606 156N1260E 35
2719111612 156N1258E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 15.6N 125.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 125.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 15.9N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 16.4N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 17.3N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 17.8N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.4N 119.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 13.9N 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 11.2N 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 125.6E.
16NOV19. TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 284
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 161200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z
AND 171500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 26W (FENGSHEN) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 161200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161200UTC 16.7N 126.3E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 171200UTC 17.3N 124.3E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 181200UTC 18.8N 122.4E 90NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 191200UTC 17.5N 120.0E 140NM 70.
MOVE WSW 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 201200UTC 14.7N 115.2E 200NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 161200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161200UTC 16.7N 126.3E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 171200UTC 17.3N 124.3E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 181200UTC 18.8N 122.4E 90NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 191200UTC 17.5N 120.0E 140NM 70.
MOVE WSW 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 161200
WARNING 161200.
WARNING VALID 171200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1926 KALMAEGI (1926) 1002 HPA
AT 16.7N 126.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 16.8N 125.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 17.3N 124.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 18.8N 122.4E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 17.5N 120.0E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 14.7N 115.2E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 160900
WARNING 160900.
WARNING VALID 170900.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1926 KALMAEGI (1926) 1002 HPA
AT 16.7N 126.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 162100UTC AT 16.7N 125.7E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170900UTC AT 17.0N 124.5E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 160900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160900UTC 16.7N 126.4E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 170900UTC 17.0N 124.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 180600UTC 18.3N 122.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 190600UTC 17.9N 121.0E 180NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 200600UTC 15.4N 117.1E 260NM 70%
MOVE WSW 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 210600UTC 11.9N 112.7E 350NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 160900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160900UTC 16.7N 126.4E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 170900UTC 17.0N 124.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 180600UTC 18.3N 122.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 190600UTC 17.9N 121.0E 180NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 160600 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.19 FOR TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KALMAEGI IS LOCATED AT 16.7N, 126.5E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS
OBSCURE. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT48. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT96. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD DUE
TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT120. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE
PHILIPPINES BY FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 160600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.19 FOR TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KALMAEGI IS LOCATED AT 16.7N, 126.5E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS
OBSCURE. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT48. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT96. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD DUE
TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT120. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE
PHILIPPINES BY FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH
LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
TO TD INTENSITY BY FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 160900
WARNING ATCG MIL 27W NWP 191116073621
2019111606 27W KALMAEGI 015 02 225 01 SATL 050
T000 156N 1260E 035 R034 110 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 154N 1254E 035 R034 120 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 159N 1247E 040 R034 120 NE QD 090 SE QD 040 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 166N 1238E 045 R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 172N 1227E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 190 NW QD
T072 170N 1201E 040 R034 210 NE QD 040 SE QD 060 SW QD 220 NW QD
T096 145N 1165E 030
T120 118N 1131E 020
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 15.6N 126.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 126.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 15.4N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 15.9N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 16.6N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 17.2N 122.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 17.0N 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 14.5N 116.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 11.8N 113.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 125.9E.
16NOV19. TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
296 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z. REFER
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
2719111018 135N1351E 15
2719111100 135N1347E 15
2719111106 131N1337E 15
2719111112 125N1330E 15
2719111118 121N1327E 20
2719111200 120N1324E 20
2719111206 119N1319E 20
2719111212 119N1314E 20
2719111218 121N1304E 25
2719111300 126N1292E 30
2719111306 129N1287E 30
2719111312 132N1284E 30
2719111318 138N1281E 30
2719111400 144N1273E 30
2719111406 148N1271E 30
2719111412 155N1267E 30
2719111418 157N1266E 30
2719111500 159N1265E 30
2719111506 160N1264E 30
2719111512 160N1262E 30
2719111518 159N1261E 35
2719111600 157N1261E 35
2719111606 156N1260E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 15.6N 126.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 126.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 15.4N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 15.9N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 16.6N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 17.2N 122.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 17.0N 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 14.5N 116.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 11.8N 113.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 125.9E.
16NOV19. TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
296 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z. REFER
TO TYPHOON 26W (FENGSHEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 160600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160600UTC 16.7N 126.5E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 170600UTC 17.0N 124.9E 70NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 180600UTC 18.3N 122.6E 120NM 70.
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 190600UTC 17.9N 121.0E 180NM 70.
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 200600UTC 15.4N 117.1E 260NM 70.
MOVE WSW 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 210600UTC 11.9N 112.7E 350NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 160600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160600UTC 16.7N 126.5E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 170600UTC 17.0N 124.9E 70NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 180600UTC 18.3N 122.6E 120NM 70.
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 190600UTC 17.9N 121.0E 180NM 70.
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 160600
WARNING 160600.
WARNING VALID 170600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1926 KALMAEGI (1926) 1002 HPA
AT 16.7N 126.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 16.7N 126.0E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 17.0N 124.9E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 18.3N 122.6E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 17.9N 121.0E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 15.4N 117.1E WITH 260 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 11.9N 112.7E WITH 350 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1010 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 160300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160300UTC 16.8N 126.4E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 170300UTC 16.9N 125.0E 70NM 70.
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 180000UTC 18.2N 122.8E 90NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 190000UTC 17.7N 120.2E 140NM 70.
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 200000UTC 15.3N 116.3E 200NM 70.
MOVE WSW 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 210000UTC 11.3N 111.5E 280NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 160300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160300UTC 16.8N 126.4E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 170300UTC 16.9N 125.0E 70NM 70.
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 180000UTC 18.2N 122.8E 90NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 190000UTC 17.7N 120.2E 140NM 70.
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 160300
WARNING 160300.
WARNING VALID 170300.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1926 KALMAEGI (1926) 1000 HPA
AT 16.8N 126.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161500UTC AT 16.9N 126.0E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170300UTC AT 16.9N 125.0E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 160300
WARNING ATCG MIL 27W NWP 191116004844
2019111600 27W KALMAEGI 014 02 270 02 SATL 035
T000 161N 1258E 035 R034 065 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 159N 1255E 035 R034 090 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 160N 1249E 040 R034 110 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 167N 1241E 045 R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 172N 1231E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 173N 1211E 040 R034 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 153N 1178E 030
T120 125N 1141E 020
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 16.1N 125.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1N 125.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 15.9N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 16.0N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 16.7N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 17.2N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 17.3N 121.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 15.3N 117.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 12.5N 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 125.7E.
16NOV19. TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 292
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 160000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
2719111018 135N1351E 15
2719111100 135N1347E 15
2719111106 131N1337E 15
2719111112 125N1330E 15
2719111118 121N1327E 20
2719111200 120N1324E 20
2719111206 119N1319E 20
2719111212 119N1314E 20
2719111218 121N1304E 25
2719111300 126N1292E 30
2719111306 129N1287E 30
2719111312 132N1284E 30
2719111318 138N1281E 30
2719111400 144N1273E 30
2719111406 148N1271E 30
2719111412 155N1267E 30
2719111418 157N1266E 30
2719111500 159N1265E 30
2719111506 160N1264E 30
2719111512 161N1262E 30
2719111518 161N1260E 35
2719111600 161N1258E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 16.1N 125.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1N 125.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 15.9N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 16.0N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 16.7N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 17.2N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 17.3N 121.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 15.3N 117.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 12.5N 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 125.7E.
16NOV19. TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 292
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 160000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z
AND 170300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 26W (FENGSHEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 160000 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.18 FOR TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KALMAEGI IS LOCATED AT 16.9N, 126.3E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS
OBSCURE. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS
DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND
WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD DUE
TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT120. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE PHILIPPINES BY
FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 160000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.18 FOR TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KALMAEGI IS LOCATED AT 16.9N, 126.3E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS
OBSCURE. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS
DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND
WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD DUE
TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT120. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE PHILIPPINES BY
FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH
LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
TO TD INTENSITY BY FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 160000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160000UTC 16.9N 126.3E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 170000UTC 16.5N 124.8E 70NM 70.
MOVE WSW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 180000UTC 18.2N 122.8E 90NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 190000UTC 17.7N 120.2E 140NM 70.
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 200000UTC 15.3N 116.3E 200NM 70.
MOVE WSW 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 210000UTC 11.3N 111.5E 280NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 160000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160000UTC 16.9N 126.3E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 170000UTC 16.5N 124.8E 70NM 70.
MOVE WSW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 180000UTC 18.2N 122.8E 90NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 190000UTC 17.7N 120.2E 140NM 70.
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 160000
WARNING 160000.
WARNING VALID 170000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1926 KALMAEGI (1926) 998 HPA
AT 16.9N 126.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 16.5N 124.8E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 18.2N 122.8E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 17.7N 120.2E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 15.3N 116.3E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 11.3N 111.5E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 152100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 152100UTC 17.0N 126.2E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 162100UTC 16.1N 124.2E 70NM 70.
MOVE WSW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 171800UTC 18.0N 122.6E 120NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 181800UTC 18.4N 120.4E 160NM 70.
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
93HF 191800UTC 15.6N 116.8E 230NM 70.
MOVE SW 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 201800UTC 12.5N 112.0E 350NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 152100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 152100UTC 17.0N 126.2E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 162100UTC 16.1N 124.2E 70NM 70.
MOVE WSW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 171800UTC 18.0N 122.6E 120NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 181800UTC 18.4N 120.4E 160NM 70.
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 152100
WARNING 152100.
WARNING VALID 162100.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1926 KALMAEGI (1926) 998 HPA
AT 17.0N 126.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 162100UTC AT 16.1N 124.2E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 152100
WARNING ATCG MIL 27W NWP 191115192051
2019111518 27W KALMAEGI 013 02 270 02 SATL 030
T000 161N 1260E 035 R034 075 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 159N 1256E 035 R034 090 NE QD 010 SE QD 040 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 158N 1253E 035 R034 070 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 162N 1246E 045 R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 168N 1237E 050 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 173N 1217E 035 R034 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 156N 1187E 025
T120 131N 1149E 020
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 013
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 16.1N 126.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1N 126.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.9N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 15.8N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 16.2N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 16.8N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 17.3N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 15.6N 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 13.1N 114.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 125.9E.
15NOV19. TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 303
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS UPGRADED FROM A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS
12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z.
UPDATES.//
2719111018 135N1351E 15
2719111100 135N1347E 15
2719111106 131N1337E 15
2719111112 125N1330E 15
2719111118 121N1327E 20
2719111200 120N1324E 20
2719111206 119N1319E 20
2719111212 119N1314E 20
2719111218 121N1304E 25
2719111300 126N1292E 30
2719111306 129N1287E 30
2719111312 132N1284E 30
2719111318 138N1281E 30
2719111400 144N1273E 30
2719111406 148N1271E 30
2719111412 155N1267E 30
2719111418 157N1266E 30
2719111500 159N1265E 30
2719111506 160N1264E 30
2719111512 161N1262E 30
2719111518 161N1260E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 013
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 16.1N 126.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1N 126.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.9N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 15.8N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 16.2N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 16.8N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 17.3N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 15.6N 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 13.1N 114.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 125.9E.
15NOV19. TROPICAL STORM 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 303
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS UPGRADED FROM A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS
12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 26W (FENGSHEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 151800 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.17 FOR TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KALMAEGI IS LOCATED AT 17.0N, 126.2E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS
OBSCURE. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK
VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE FORMATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE
SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 151800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.17 FOR TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KALMAEGI IS LOCATED AT 17.0N, 126.2E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS
OBSCURE. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK
VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE FORMATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE
SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LAND, STRONG VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 151800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151800UTC 17.0N 126.2E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 161800UTC 16.3N 124.5E 70NM 70.
MOVE WSW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 171800UTC 18.0N 122.6E 120NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 181800UTC 18.4N 120.4E 160NM 70.
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 191800UTC 15.6N 116.8E 230NM 70.
MOVE SW 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 201800UTC 12.5N 112.0E 350NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 151800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151800UTC 17.0N 126.2E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 161800UTC 16.3N 124.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE WSW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 171800UTC 18.0N 122.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 181800UTC 18.4N 120.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 151800
WARNING 151800.
WARNING VALID 161800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1926 KALMAEGI (1926) 998 HPA
AT 17.0N 126.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 16.3N 124.5E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 18.0N 122.6E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 18.4N 120.4E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 15.6N 116.8E WITH 230 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 12.5N 112.0E WITH 350 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 151500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151500UTC 17.0N 126.2E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 161500UTC 16.6N 124.5E 70NM 70.
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 171200UTC 17.4N 123.1E 120NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 181200UTC 18.1N 120.5E 160NM 70.
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
93HF 191200UTC 16.2N 117.6E 230NM 70.
MOVE WSW 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
117HF 201200UTC 13.1N 112.3E 350NM 70.
MOVE WSW 15KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 151500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151500UTC 17.0N 126.2E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 161500UTC 16.6N 124.5E 70NM 70.
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 171200UTC 17.4N 123.1E 120NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 181200UTC 18.1N 120.5E 160NM 70.
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 151500
WARNING ATCG MIL 27W NWP 191115134735
2019111512 27W KALMAEGI 012 02 270 02 SATL 060
T000 172N 1257E 030
T012 168N 1254E 035 R034 090 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 167N 1251E 040 R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 171N 1244E 045 R034 070 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 178N 1236E 050 R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 187N 1213E 035 R034 150 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 171N 1186E 035 R034 130 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 110 NW QD
T120 141N 1149E 025
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 17.2N 125.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 125.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 16.8N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 16.7N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 17.1N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.8N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 18.7N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 17.1N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 14.1N 114.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 125.6E.
15NOV19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 313 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2719111018 135N1351E 15
2719111100 135N1347E 15
2719111106 131N1337E 15
2719111112 125N1330E 15
2719111118 121N1327E 20
2719111200 120N1324E 20
2719111206 119N1319E 20
2719111212 119N1314E 20
2719111218 121N1304E 25
2719111300 126N1292E 30
2719111306 129N1287E 30
2719111312 132N1284E 30
2719111318 138N1281E 30
2719111400 144N1273E 30
2719111406 148N1271E 30
2719111412 155N1267E 30
2719111418 162N1266E 30
2719111500 167N1265E 30
2719111506 172N1259E 30
2719111512 172N1257E 30
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 17.2N 125.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 125.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 16.8N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 16.7N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 17.1N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.8N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 18.7N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 17.1N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 14.1N 114.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 125.6E.
15NOV19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 313 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 26W (FENGSHEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 151200 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.16 FOR TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KALMAEGI IS LOCATED AT 17.0N, 126.2E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS
OBSCURE. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK
VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF
ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND
FORMING A CURVED BAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 151200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.16 FOR TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KALMAEGI IS LOCATED AT 17.0N, 126.2E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS
OBSCURE. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK
VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF
ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND
FORMING A CURVED BAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LAND, STRONG VWS AND DRY AIR. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 151200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151200UTC 17.0N 126.2E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 161200UTC 16.6N 124.6E 70NM 70.
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 171200UTC 17.4N 123.1E 120NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 181200UTC 18.1N 120.5E 160NM 70.
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 191200UTC 16.2N 117.6E 230NM 70.
MOVE WSW 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
120HF 201200UTC 13.1N 112.3E 350NM 70.
MOVE WSW 15KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 151200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151200UTC 17.0N 126.2E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 161200UTC 16.6N 124.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 171200UTC 17.4N 123.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 181200UTC 18.1N 120.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 151200
WARNING 151200.
WARNING VALID 161200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1926 KALMAEGI (1926) 1000 HPA
AT 17.0N 126.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 16.6N 124.6E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 17.4N 123.1E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 18.1N 120.5E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 16.2N 117.6E WITH 230 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 13.1N 112.3E WITH 350 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 150900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150900UTC 16.8N 126.2E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 160900UTC 16.9N 124.4E 70NM 70.
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 170600UTC 17.5N 123.0E 120NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 180600UTC 18.7N 120.7E 160NM 70.
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
93HF 190600UTC 16.9N 117.8E 230NM 70.
MOVE WSW 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
117HF 200600UTC 13.6N 112.2E 325NM 70.
MOVE WSW 16KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 150900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150900UTC 16.8N 126.2E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 160900UTC 16.9N 124.4E 70NM 70.
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 170600UTC 17.5N 123.0E 120NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 180600UTC 18.7N 120.7E 160NM 70.
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 150900
WARNING ATCG MIL 27W NWP 191115075950
2019111506 27W KALMAEGI 011 02 310 08 SATL 060
T000 172N 1259E 030
T012 171N 1254E 035 R034 050 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 169N 1250E 040 R034 070 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 170N 1244E 045 R034 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 176N 1236E 050 R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 187N 1215E 040 R034 100 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 177N 1194E 035 R034 160 NE QD 030 SE QD 050 SW QD 140 NW QD
T120 152N 1161E 025
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 17.2N 125.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 125.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.1N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 16.9N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.0N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.6N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.7N 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 17.7N 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 15.2N 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 17.2N 125.8E.
15NOV19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 323 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS
TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2719111018 135N1351E 15
2719111100 135N1347E 15
2719111106 131N1337E 15
2719111112 125N1330E 15
2719111118 121N1327E 20
2719111200 120N1324E 20
2719111206 119N1319E 20
2719111212 119N1314E 20
2719111218 121N1304E 25
2719111300 126N1292E 30
2719111306 129N1287E 30
2719111312 132N1284E 30
2719111318 138N1281E 30
2719111400 144N1273E 30
2719111406 148N1271E 30
2719111412 155N1267E 30
2719111418 162N1266E 30
2719111500 167N1265E 30
2719111506 172N1259E 30
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 17.2N 125.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 125.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.1N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 16.9N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.0N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.6N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.7N 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 17.7N 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 15.2N 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 17.2N 125.8E.
15NOV19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 323 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS
TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 26W (FENGSHEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 150600 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KALMAEGI IS LOCATED AT 16.8N, 126.3E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL
ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1000HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED
IT TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 150600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KALMAEGI IS LOCATED AT 16.8N, 126.3E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL
ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1000HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED
IT TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LAND, INCREASED VWS AND DRY AIR. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 150600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150600UTC 16.8N 126.3E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 160600UTC 16.8N 124.6E 70NM 70.
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 170600UTC 17.5N 123.0E 120NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 180600UTC 18.7N 120.7E 160NM 70.
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 190600UTC 16.9N 117.8E 230NM 70.
MOVE WSW 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
120HF 200600UTC 13.6N 112.2E 325NM 70.
MOVE WSW 16KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 150600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150600UTC 16.8N 126.3E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 160600UTC 16.8N 124.6E 70NM 70.
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 170600UTC 17.5N 123.0E 120NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 180600UTC 18.7N 120.7E 160NM 70.
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 150600
WARNING 150600.
WARNING VALID 160600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1926 KALMAEGI (1926) 1000 HPA
AT 16.8N 126.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 16.8N 124.6E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 17.5N 123.0E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 18.7N 120.7E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 16.9N 117.8E WITH 230 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 13.6N 112.2E WITH 325 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 150300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150300UTC 16.8N 126.5E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 160300UTC 16.8N 125.0E 70NM 70.
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 170000UTC 17.0N 123.7E 100NM 70.
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 180000UTC 18.5N 121.6E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 190000UTC 17.5N 118.7E 200NM 70.
MOVE WSW 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
117HF 200000UTC 14.7N 114.0E 280NM 70.
MOVE WSW 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 150300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150300UTC 16.8N 126.5E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 160300UTC 16.8N 125.0E 70NM 70.
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 170000UTC 17.0N 123.7E 100NM 70.
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 180000UTC 18.5N 121.6E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 150300
WARNING 150300.
WARNING VALID 160300.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1926 KALMAEGI (1926) 998 HPA
AT 16.8N 126.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160300UTC AT 16.8N 125.0E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 150000 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KALMAEGI IS LOCATED AT 16.7N, 126.5E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL
ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED
IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION
ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING
AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 150000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KALMAEGI IS LOCATED AT 16.7N, 126.5E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL
ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED
IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION
ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING
AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LAND, INCREASED VWS AND DRY AIR. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 150000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150000UTC 16.7N 126.5E POOR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 160000UTC 16.8N 125.2E 70NM 70.
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 170000UTC 17.0N 123.7E 100NM 70.
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 180000UTC 18.5N 121.6E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 190000UTC 17.5N 118.7E 200NM 70.
MOVE WSW 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
120HF 200000UTC 14.7N 114.0E 280NM 70.
MOVE WSW 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 150000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150000UTC 16.7N 126.5E POOR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 160000UTC 16.8N 125.2E 70NM 70.
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 170000UTC 17.0N 123.7E 100NM 70.
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 180000UTC 18.5N 121.6E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 150000
WARNING 150000.
WARNING VALID 160000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1926 KALMAEGI (1926) 998 HPA
AT 16.7N 126.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 16.8N 125.2E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 17.0N 123.7E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 18.5N 121.6E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 17.5N 118.7E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 14.7N 114.0E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 142100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 142100UTC 17.5N 126.3E POOR
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 152100UTC 16.4N 124.9E 70NM 70%
MOVE SW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 161800UTC 16.8N 124.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 171800UTC 18.6N 122.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
93HF 181800UTC 18.5N 120.2E 200NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
117HF 191800UTC 16.2N 117.4E 280NM 70%
MOVE SW 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 142100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 142100UTC 17.5N 126.3E POOR
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 152100UTC 16.4N 124.9E 70NM 70.
MOVE SW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 161800UTC 16.8N 124.0E 120NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 171800UTC 18.6N 122.3E 160NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 142100
WARNING 142100.
WARNING VALID 152100.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1926 KALMAEGI (1926) 998 HPA
AT 17.5N 126.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08
KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 152100UTC AT 16.4N 124.9E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 141800 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KALMAEGI IS LOCATED AT 17.1N, 126.8E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS
POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND
FORMING A CURVED BAND. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 141800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KALMAEGI IS LOCATED AT 17.1N, 126.8E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS
POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND
FORMING A CURVED BAND. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LAND, INCREASED VWS AND DRY AIR. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 141800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141800UTC 17.1N 126.8E POOR
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTHWEST 150NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 151800UTC 16.6N 124.9E 70NM 70.
MOVE WSW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 161800UTC 16.8N 124.0E 120NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 171800UTC 18.6N 122.3E 160NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 181800UTC 18.5N 120.2E 200NM 70.
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
120HF 191800UTC 16.2N 117.4E 280NM 70.
MOVE SW 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 141800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141800UTC 17.1N 126.8E POOR
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTHWEST 150NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 151800UTC 16.6N 124.9E 70NM 70.
MOVE WSW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 161800UTC 16.8N 124.0E 120NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 171800UTC 18.6N 122.3E 160NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 141800
WARNING 141800.
WARNING VALID 151800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1926 KALMAEGI (1926) 998 HPA
AT 17.1N 126.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTH 08 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 16.6N 124.9E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 16.8N 124.0E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 18.6N 122.3E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 18.5N 120.2E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 16.2N 117.4E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 141500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141500UTC 16.6N 126.8E POOR
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 151500UTC 16.5N 125.5E 70NM 70.
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 161200UTC 16.4N 124.4E 100NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 171200UTC 17.9N 122.5E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
93HF 181200UTC 18.6N 120.3E 200NM 70.
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
117HF 191200UTC 17.1N 118.5E 280NM 70.
MOVE SW 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 141500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141500UTC 16.6N 126.8E POOR
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 151500UTC 16.5N 125.5E 70NM 70.
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 161200UTC 16.4N 124.4E 100NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 171200UTC 17.9N 122.5E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 141500
WARNING 141500.
WARNING VALID 151500.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1926 KALMAEGI (1926) 998 HPA
AT 16.6N 126.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTH 08 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151500UTC AT 16.5N 125.5E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 141500
WARNING ATCG MIL 27W NWP 191114135445
2019111412 27W KALMAEGI 008 02 295 07 SATL SYNP 060
T000 152N 1259E 030
T012 157N 1253E 030
T024 161N 1247E 035 R034 110 NE QD 060 SE QD 010 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 165N 1242E 040 R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 170N 1235E 045 R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 176N 1217E 050 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 175N 1196E 040 R034 160 NE QD 050 SE QD 080 SW QD 140 NW QD
T120 163N 1174E 030
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 15.2N 125.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 125.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 15.7N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 16.1N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 16.5N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 17.0N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.6N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 17.5N 119.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.3N 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 125.8E.
14NOV19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 286 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z. REFER
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
2719111018 135N1351E 15
2719111100 135N1347E 15
2719111106 131N1337E 15
2719111112 125N1330E 15
2719111118 121N1327E 20
2719111200 120N1324E 20
2719111206 119N1319E 20
2719111212 119N1314E 20
2719111218 121N1304E 25
2719111300 126N1292E 30
2719111306 129N1287E 30
2719111312 132N1284E 30
2719111318 138N1281E 30
2719111400 144N1273E 30
2719111406 149N1265E 30
2719111412 152N1259E 30
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 15.2N 125.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 125.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 15.7N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 16.1N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 16.5N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 17.0N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.6N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 17.5N 119.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.3N 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 125.8E.
14NOV19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 286 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL STORM 26W (FENGSHEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 141200 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KALMAEGI IS LOCATED AT 16.3N, 126.7E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS
FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK
VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND
FORMING A CURVED BAND. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KALMAEGI IS LOCATED AT 16.3N, 126.7E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS
FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK
VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND
FORMING A CURVED BAND. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LAND, INCREASED VWS AND DRY AIR. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141200UTC 16.3N 126.7E FAIR
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 151200UTC 16.2N 124.8E 70NM 70.
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 161200UTC 16.4N 124.4E 100NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 171200UTC 17.9N 122.5E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 181200UTC 18.6N 120.3E 200NM 70.
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
120HF 191200UTC 17.1N 118.5E 280NM 70.
MOVE SW 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141200UTC 16.3N 126.7E FAIR
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 300NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 151200UTC 16.2N 124.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 161200UTC 16.4N 124.4E 100NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 171200UTC 17.9N 122.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 141200
WARNING 141200.
WARNING VALID 151200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1926 KALMAEGI (1926) 998 HPA
AT 16.3N 126.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTH 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 16.2N 124.8E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 16.4N 124.4E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 17.9N 122.5E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 18.6N 120.3E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 17.1N 118.5E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 140900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140900UTC 16.0N 126.8E FAIR
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 150900UTC 16.3N 124.6E 70NM 70.
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 160600UTC 16.4N 124.4E 120NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 170600UTC 17.5N 122.0E 140NM 70.
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
93HF 180600UTC 18.2N 119.5E 200NM 70.
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
117HF 190600UTC 16.7N 117.1E 280NM 70.
MOVE WSW 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 140900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140900UTC 16.0N 126.8E FAIR
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 150900UTC 16.3N 124.6E 70NM 70.
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 160600UTC 16.4N 124.4E 120NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 170600UTC 17.5N 122.0E 140NM 70.
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 140900
WARNING 140900.
WARNING VALID 150900.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1926 KALMAEGI (1926) 1000 HPA
AT 16.0N 126.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTH 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150900UTC AT 16.3N 124.6E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 140900
WARNING ATCG MIL 27W NWP 191114074511
2019111406 27W KALMAEGI 007 02 305 09 SATL SYNP 060
T000 149N 1265E 030
T012 155N 1257E 030
T024 160N 1252E 035 R034 110 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 163N 1247E 040 R034 110 NE QD 070 SE QD 020 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 166N 1242E 045 R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 174N 1224E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 176N 1203E 045 R034 130 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 140 NW QD
T120 171N 1184E 035 R034 210 NE QD 050 SE QD 090 SW QD 200 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 14.9N 126.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 126.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 15.5N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 16.0N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 16.3N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 16.6N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.4N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 17.6N 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 17.1N 118.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 126.3E.
14NOV19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 320 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
UPDATES.//
2719111018 135N1351E 15
2719111100 135N1347E 15
2719111106 131N1337E 15
2719111112 125N1330E 15
2719111118 121N1327E 20
2719111200 120N1324E 20
2719111206 119N1319E 20
2719111212 119N1314E 20
2719111218 121N1304E 25
2719111300 126N1292E 30
2719111306 129N1287E 30
2719111312 132N1284E 30
2719111318 138N1281E 30
2719111400 144N1273E 30
2719111406 149N1265E 30
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 14.9N 126.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 126.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 15.5N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 16.0N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 16.3N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 16.6N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.4N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 17.6N 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 17.1N 118.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 126.3E.
14NOV19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 320 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 26W (FENGSHEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 140600 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KALMAEGI IS LOCATED AT 15.5N, 126.7E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS
FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND
GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS
STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING
AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 140600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KALMAEGI IS LOCATED AT 15.5N, 126.7E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS
FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND
GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS
STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING
AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LAND, STRONG VWS AND DRY AIR. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 140600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140600UTC 15.5N 126.7E FAIR
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 150600UTC 16.3N 124.7E 70NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 160600UTC 16.4N 124.4E 120NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 170600UTC 17.5N 122.0E 140NM 70.
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
96HF 180600UTC 18.2N 119.5E 200NM 70.
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
120HF 190600UTC 16.7N 117.1E 280NM 70.
MOVE WSW 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 140600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140600UTC 15.5N 126.7E FAIR
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 150600UTC 16.3N 124.7E 70NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 160600UTC 16.4N 124.4E 120NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 170600UTC 17.5N 122.0E 140NM 70.
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 140600
WARNING 140600.
WARNING VALID 150600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1926 KALMAEGI (1926) 1000 HPA
AT 15.5N 126.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 16.3N 124.7E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 16.4N 124.4E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 17.5N 122.0E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 18.2N 119.5E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 16.7N 117.1E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 140300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140300UTC 15.3N 126.7E FAIR
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 150300UTC 16.1N 124.7E 70NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 160000UTC 16.3N 124.5E 120NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 170000UTC 17.7N 122.7E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
93HF 180000UTC 18.5N 121.1E 200NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
117HF 190000UTC 17.7N 118.7E 280NM 70.
MOVE WSW 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 140300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140300UTC 15.3N 126.7E FAIR
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 150300UTC 16.1N 124.7E 70NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 160000UTC 16.3N 124.5E 120NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 170000UTC 17.7N 122.7E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 140300
WARNING 140300.
WARNING VALID 150300.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1926 KALMAEGI (1926) 1000 HPA
AT 15.3N 126.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141500UTC AT 15.8N 125.3E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150300UTC AT 16.1N 124.7E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 140300
WARNING ATCG MIL 27W NWP 191114020922
2019111400 27W KALMAEGI 006 02 310 10 SATL 050
T000 141N 1274E 030
T012 149N 1261E 035 R034 080 NE QD 045 SE QD 055 SW QD 105 NW QD
T024 154N 1254E 040 R034 085 NE QD 035 SE QD 060 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 157N 1253E 045 R034 075 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 065 NW QD
T048 160N 1250E 050 R050 035 NE QD 010 SE QD 015 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 075 NW QD
T072 169N 1232E 055 R050 040 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 080 SE QD 045 SW QD 075 NW QD
T096 174N 1210E 040 R034 100 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 170N 1191E 035 R034 105 NE QD 070 SE QD 085 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 14.1N 127.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 127.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 14.9N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 15.4N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 15.7N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 16.0N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 16.9N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 17.4N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 17.0N 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 127.1E.
14NOV19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 373 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2719111018 135N1351E 15
2719111100 135N1347E 15
2719111106 131N1337E 15
2719111112 125N1330E 15
2719111118 121N1327E 20
2719111200 120N1324E 20
2719111206 119N1319E 20
2719111212 119N1314E 20
2719111218 121N1304E 25
2719111300 126N1292E 30
2719111306 129N1287E 30
2719111312 131N1284E 30
2719111318 134N1282E 30
2719111400 141N1274E 30
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 14.1N 127.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 127.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 14.9N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 15.4N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 15.7N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 16.0N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 16.9N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 17.4N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 17.0N 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 127.1E. 14NOV19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 373 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 26W (FENGSHEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 140000 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KALMAEGI IS LOCATED AT 15.2N, 126.9E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS
FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND
GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS
STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND
FORMING A CURVED BAND. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST
STATIONARY UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD
UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 140000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KALMAEGI IS LOCATED AT 15.2N, 126.9E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS
FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND
GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS
STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND
FORMING A CURVED BAND. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST
STATIONARY UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD
UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH INCREASED VWS, LAND AND DRY AIR. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 140000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140000UTC 15.2N 126.9E FAIR
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 150000UTC 16.1N 124.8E 70NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 160000UTC 16.3N 124.5E 120NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 170000UTC 17.7N 122.7E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
96HF 180000UTC 18.5N 121.1E 200NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
120HF 190000UTC 17.7N 118.7E 280NM 70.
MOVE WSW 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 140000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140000UTC 15.2N 126.9E FAIR
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 150000UTC 16.1N 124.8E 70NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 160000UTC 16.3N 124.5E 120NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 170000UTC 17.7N 122.7E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 140000
WARNING 140000.
WARNING VALID 150000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1926 KALMAEGI (1926) 1000 HPA
AT 15.2N 126.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTH 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 15.7N 125.5E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 16.1N 124.8E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 16.3N 124.5E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 17.7N 122.7E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 18.5N 121.1E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 17.7N 118.7E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 132100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 132100UTC 14.3N 127.1E FAIR
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 142100UTC 15.9N 124.4E 70NM 70.
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 151800UTC 16.4N 124.8E 120NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 161800UTC 16.8N 123.7E 180NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 171800UTC 18.3N 121.3E 200NM 70.
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
117HF 181800UTC 18.3N 119.7E 280NM 70.
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 132100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 132100UTC 14.3N 127.1E FAIR
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 142100UTC 15.9N 124.4E 70NM 70.
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 151800UTC 16.4N 124.8E 120NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 161800UTC 16.8N 123.7E 180NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 132100
WARNING ATCG MIL 27W NWP 191113200523
2019111318 27W KALMAEGI 005 02 305 04 SATL 050
T000 133N 1281E 030
T012 141N 1269E 035 R034 080 NE QD 045 SE QD 055 SW QD 105 NW QD
T024 150N 1256E 040 R034 085 NE QD 035 SE QD 060 SW QD 115 NW QD
T036 154N 1252E 045 R034 080 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 105 NW QD
T048 158N 1248E 050 R050 025 NE QD 010 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 075 NW QD
T072 165N 1239E 050 R050 025 NE QD 010 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 075 NW QD
T096 173N 1220E 040 R034 095 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 173N 1199E 035 R034 105 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 13.3N 128.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 128.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 14.1N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 15.0N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 15.4N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 15.8N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 16.5N 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.3N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 17.3N 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 13.5N 127.8E.
13NOV19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 421 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2719111018 135N1351E 15
2719111100 135N1347E 15
2719111106 131N1337E 15
2719111112 125N1330E 15
2719111118 121N1327E 20
2719111200 120N1324E 20
2719111206 119N1319E 20
2719111212 119N1314E 20
2719111218 121N1304E 25
2719111300 126N1292E 30
2719111306 129N1287E 30
2719111312 131N1284E 30
2719111318 133N1281E 30
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 13.3N 128.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 128.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 14.1N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 15.0N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 15.4N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 15.8N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 16.5N 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.3N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 17.3N 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 13.5N 127.8E.
13NOV19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 421 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 26W (FENGSHEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 131800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KALMAEGI IS LOCATED AT 13.6N, 127.1E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1000HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED
FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA
ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING
FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS HAVE GATHERED AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP, INCREASED
VWS AND LAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 131800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131800UTC 13.6N 127.1E FAIR
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 141800UTC 15.4N 125.0E 70NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 151800UTC 16.4N 124.8E 120NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 161800UTC 16.8N 123.7E 180NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 171800UTC 18.3N 121.3E 200NM 70.
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
120HF 181800UTC 18.3N 119.7E 280NM 70.
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 131800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131800UTC 13.6N 127.1E FAIR
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 141800UTC 15.4N 125.0E 70NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 151800UTC 16.4N 124.8E 120NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 161800UTC 16.8N 123.7E 180NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 131800
WARNING 131800.
WARNING VALID 141800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1926 KALMAEGI (1926) 1000 HPA
AT 13.6N 127.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 07
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 14.8N 125.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 15.4N 125.0E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 16.4N 124.8E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 16.8N 123.7E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 18.3N 121.3E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 18.3N 119.7E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 131500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131500UTC 13.1N 127.2E FAIR
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 141500UTC 15.3N 125.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 151200UTC 16.2N 124.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 161200UTC 17.2N 123.0E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 171200UTC 18.4N 120.9E 200NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
117HF 181200UTC 18.1N 119.1E 280NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 131500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131500UTC 13.1N 127.2E FAIR
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 141500UTC 15.3N 125.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 151200UTC 16.2N 124.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 161200UTC 17.2N 123.0E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 13.2N 128.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 128.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 14.2N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 15.1N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 15.6N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 16.0N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 16.6N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.4N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 17.8N 119.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 13.5N 128.0E.
13NOV19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 439 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 26W (FENGSHEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 131500
WARNING ATCG MIL 27W NWP 191113144946
2019111312 27W KALMAEGI 004 02 335 02 SATL 050
T000 132N 1284E 030
T012 142N 1267E 035 R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 030 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 151N 1256E 040 R034 120 NE QD 010 SE QD 030 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 156N 1252E 045 R034 140 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 160N 1247E 050 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 166N 1243E 055 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 174N 1221E 045 R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 178N 1195E 040 R034 190 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 150 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 13.2N 128.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 128.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 14.2N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 15.1N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 15.6N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 16.0N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 16.6N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.4N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 17.8N 119.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 13.5N 128.0E.
13NOV19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 439 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2719111018 135N1351E 15
2719111100 135N1347E 15
2719111106 131N1337E 15
2719111112 125N1330E 15
2719111118 121N1327E 20
2719111200 120N1324E 20
2719111206 119N1319E 20
2719111212 119N1314E 20
2719111218 121N1304E 25
2719111300 126N1292E 30
2719111306 130N1285E 30
2719111312 132N1284E 30
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 131200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KALMAEGI IS LOCATED AT 13.0N, 127.4E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1000HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED
FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS ARE SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. DMSP-F15/SSMI
89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE
CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 131200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131200UTC 13.0N 127.4E FAIR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 141200UTC 15.1N 125.1E 70NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 151200UTC 16.2N 124.2E 120NM 70.
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 161200UTC 17.2N 123.0E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 171200UTC 18.4N 120.9E 200NM 70.
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
120HF 181200UTC 18.1N 119.1E 280NM 70.
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 131200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131200UTC 13.0N 127.4E FAIR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 141200UTC 15.1N 125.1E 70NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 151200UTC 16.2N 124.2E 120NM 70.
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 161200UTC 17.2N 123.0E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 131200
WARNING 131200.
WARNING VALID 141200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1926 KALMAEGI (1926) 1000 HPA
AT 13.0N 127.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 14.2N 126.2E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 15.1N 125.1E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 16.2N 124.2E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 17.2N 123.0E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 18.4N 120.9E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 18.1N 119.1E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 130900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130900UTC 13.0N 127.6E FAIR
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 140900UTC 15.4N 124.9E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 150600UTC 16.7N 124.3E 90NM 70.
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 160600UTC 17.9N 124.3E 160NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
93HF 170600UTC 19.1N 122.7E 230NM 70.
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
117HF 180600UTC 19.5N 121.8E 325NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 130900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130900UTC 13.0N 127.6E FAIR
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 140900UTC 15.4N 124.9E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 150600UTC 16.7N 124.3E 90NM 70.
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 160600UTC 17.9N 124.3E 160NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 130900
WARNING ATCG MIL 27W NWP 191113075329
2019111306 27W KALMAEGI 003 02 300 08 SATL 040
T000 130N 1285E 030
T012 141N 1269E 035 R034 210 NE QD 060 SE QD 080 SW QD 170 NW QD
T024 150N 1257E 040 R034 130 NE QD 010 SE QD 070 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 156N 1250E 045 R034 150 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 162N 1248E 050 R034 120 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 168N 1244E 055 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 179N 1236E 045 R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 030 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 194N 1216E 040 R034 150 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 13.0N 128.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 128.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 14.1N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 15.0N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 15.6N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 16.2N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 16.8N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.9N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 19.4N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 128.1E.
13NOV19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 447 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2719111018 135N1351E 15
2719111100 135N1347E 15
2719111106 131N1337E 15
2719111112 125N1330E 15
2719111118 121N1327E 20
2719111200 120N1324E 20
2719111206 119N1319E 20
2719111212 119N1314E 20
2719111218 121N1304E 25
2719111300 126N1292E 30
2719111306 130N1285E 30
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 13.0N 128.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 128.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 14.1N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 15.0N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 15.6N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 16.2N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 16.8N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.9N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 19.4N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 128.1E.
13NOV19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 447 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 26W (FENGSHEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 130600 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KALMAEGI IS LOCATED AT 13.1N, 128.5E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS
FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND STRONG VWS. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC, INDICATING INTERFERENCE FROM
INTENSIFICATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT48. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD DUE TO
WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 130600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS KALMAEGI IS LOCATED AT 13.1N, 128.5E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS
FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND STRONG VWS. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC, INDICATING INTERFERENCE FROM
INTENSIFICATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT48. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD DUE TO
WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 130600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130600UTC 13.1N 128.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 140600UTC 14.3N 126.0E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 150600UTC 16.7N 124.3E 90NM 70.
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 160600UTC 17.9N 124.3E 160NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 170600UTC 19.1N 122.7E 230NM 70.
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
120HF 180600UTC 19.5N 121.8E 325NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 130600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130600UTC 13.1N 128.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 140600UTC 14.3N 126.0E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 150600UTC 16.7N 124.3E 90NM 70.
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 160600UTC 17.9N 124.3E 160NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 130600
WARNING 130600.
WARNING VALID 140600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1926 KALMAEGI (1926) 1000 HPA
AT 13.1N 128.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 13.9N 127.0E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 14.3N 126.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 16.7N 124.3E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 17.9N 124.3E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 19.1N 122.7E WITH 230 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 19.5N 121.8E WITH 325 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 130300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130300UTC 13.1N 128.6E FAIR
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 140300UTC 14.7N 125.4E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 150000UTC 16.2N 123.4E 90NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 160000UTC 17.7N 123.1E 160NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
93HF 170000UTC 18.6N 121.8E 230NM 70.
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 180000UTC 19.2N 121.0E 325NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 130300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130300UTC 13.1N 128.6E FAIR
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 140300UTC 14.7N 125.4E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 150000UTC 16.2N 123.4E 90NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 160000UTC 17.7N 123.1E 160NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 130000 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
A TD PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 12.2N, 130.1E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS
(KALMAEGI) STATUS. TS KALMAEGI IS LOCATED AT 12.9N, 128.8E.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1002HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM
THE CSC, INDICATING INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS
AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD DUE
TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 130000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
A TD PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 12.2N, 130.1E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS
(KALMAEGI) STATUS. TS KALMAEGI IS LOCATED AT 12.9N, 128.8E.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1002HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM
THE CSC, INDICATING INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS
AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD DUE
TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 130000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130000UTC 12.9N 128.8E FAIR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 140000UTC 14.3N 125.4E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 150000UTC 16.2N 123.4E 90NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 160000UTC 17.7N 123.1E 160NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 170000UTC 18.6N 121.8E 230NM 70.
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 180000UTC 19.2N 121.0E 325NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 130000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1926 KALMAEGI (1926) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130000UTC 12.9N 128.8E FAIR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 140000UTC 14.3N 125.4E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 150000UTC 16.2N 123.4E 90NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 160000UTC 17.7N 123.1E 160NM 70.
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 130000
WARNING 130000.
WARNING VALID 140000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1926 KALMAEGI (1926) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
1002 HPA
AT 12.9N 128.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 14.3N 125.4E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 16.2N 123.4E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 17.7N 123.1E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 18.6N 121.8E WITH 230 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 19.2N 121.0E WITH 325 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=